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Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. aquak9
Ike, stop it. I don't wanna see nothin.
Quoting IKE:
Oil spill trouble on the 6Z parallel GFS.


Another Texas storm? Damn, those guys have bad luck this year.
1503. P451
These long range models should be taken with a grain of salt. Even less.

We're in an inactive period at the moment and I doubt the models are going to be that good at predicting the upswing in activity, let alone a storm's path, 240+ hours out.

Why worry about something that isn't there.

When we start tracking the next invest that is the time to get anxious.
1504. IKE
NOGAPS and GFS operational don't show anything in the GOM aka GOO.


Quoting aquak9:
Ike, stop it. I don't wanna see nothin.


Link
1505. aquak9
GI model says we're good for a while, too. (GI = gut feeling)
1508. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


so CMC and GFS 2.0 have some agreement?


Yeah....true.
1511. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N30W TO 6N31W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOW WELL-DEFINED
CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW
IS ALSO ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS.
A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE
AXIS RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
FOLLOWS A SLIGHT MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 63W-67W.
Good morning.



Glad FIMZ is experimental


That double barreled high is not quite as strong as it was yesterday.
Quoting BahaHurican:
That double barreled high is not quite as strong as it was yesterday.
Morning Baha
1518. IKE
Back to reality...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting DestinJeff:


oh you know some will be hanging their hat all over that when they see it. "can I get the link to that?" / "what does the FIMZ show?" / "when does the next FIMZ come out?" / "I know it is experimental, but it is experimenting right over my house! lol!"


LOL, it it just another data source to be added to all the others. It is interesting that HPC has a higher latitude tropical wave east of the islands in a week.


Quoting DestinJeff:
850 vorticity has begun to consolidate near 30W, 10N



Hi Jeff, The low is actually at 17N 33W. I posted the links earlier with the visible and the 850M Vorticity. The 6Z GFS shows this crossing FL on THursday and this needs to be watched as developement could occur in a few days.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_204.shtml

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
Quoting DestinJeff:


oh you know some will be hanging their hat all over that when they see it. "can I get the link to that?" / "what does the FIMZ show?" / "when does the next FIMZ come out?" / "I know it is experimental, but it is experimenting right over my house! lol!"


Right in line with the GFS and other models on FSU's site.
Quoting IKE:
Back to reality...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Ike i didnt see any type system in GOM on the 06 GFS I saw..It did show a low near the cape verdes out 12 days
Good Morning....The latest FSU vorticity model model run (GFS) does not develop that wave at 30W. Nothing out there at the moment with the exception of retreating SAL and plenty of moisture between Africa and the Antilles.......The "priming" continues for August.
I would not base my forecast on Long Range Models, tropics or no tropics. They are not that accurate.
Quoting stormhank:
Ike i didnt see any type system in GOM on the 06 GFS I saw..It did show a low near the cape verdes out 12 days


I would disregard the map IKE posted as just doesn't seem feesable given all the wvaes are coming from Africa to FL then to TX or LA. Any developement could occur with one of these waves coming off Africa. The low at 17N and 33W is a fighter despite all the dry air but as it moves W in about 3 days it could enter a much better enviroment.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning....The latest FSU vorticity model model run (GFS) does not develop that wave at 30W. Nothing out there at the moment with the exception of retreating SAL and plenty of moisture between Africa and the Antilles.......The "priming" continues for August.


Your right it doesn't but according to the GFS on Thursday it gains lots of convection as it crosses the Bahamas and enters FL. This could signal a chance of developement.
Its amazing on the SST anomaly chart the difference between atlantic temps and pacific...LaNina is on its way..SSTs in pacific look more like December rather than July
A met in Orlando that I live near told me yesterday that August thru October could one of the wettest in many years for C and S FL.
Anyone think Bonnie will develop before the end of July???
Quoting stormhank:
Anyone think Bonnie will develop before the end of July???


Looking better everyday.
US Hazards Assessment

Excerpt:

FOR TUESDAY JULY 20 - SATURDAY JULY 24

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN NEAR THE END OF THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS.
Here's the 3 month precip outlook for the US. Notice the Gulf Coast & FL.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2
1533. SLU
All of this heat content over the Atlantic is going to allow for some Typhon Tip type storms.
I suggest we watch the wave near 30%u02DAW-35%u02DAW and 17%u02DAN. 850mb vorticity has begun to consolidate, convection is also improving. SAL is diminishing, plus the wave has very nice cyclonic rotation in the lower levels.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I suggest we watch the wave near 30˚W-35˚W and 10˚N. 850mb vorticity has begun to consolidate, convection is also improving. SAL is diminishing, plus the wave has very nice cyclonic rotation in the lower levels.


Actually at 17N it appears. I thought 10N as well until I saw the visible sat. this morning.
Quoting Jeff9641:
All of this heat content over the Atlantic is going to allow for some Typhon Tip type storms.
You need much more than piling of heat to allow for a cyclone of that intensity and size.
Morning All.

The wave approaching 60W looks a little suspect this morning. Not sure of the shear forecast down the road, rather high now though.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You need much more than piling of heat to allow for a cyclone of that intensity and size.


Hey I know this I believe I did go to school for this. Anyway everything else is in place for many monster storms this year (i.e Low Shear, high SST, above average moisture across the MDR region, and plenty of upeard motion coming. I could go on if you need me too.
I believe we will see our next invest in the SW Caribbean sometime in the next 48 hours. The upward motion of the MJO has begun to come into that region. There are also favorable upper level winds. Something else that we don't see with those flare-ups of convection down there is lower convergence, which this system indeed has. Steering is very weak over this area, but should become stronger and a bit more northerly with time.

Quoting Jeff9641:


Hey I know this I believe I did go to school for this. Anyway everything else is in place for many monster storms this year (i.e Low Shear, high SST, above average moisture across the MDR region, and plenty of upeard motion coming. I could go on if you need me too.
That great if you went to school. But in your first comment you just said heat. You can have 100˚F SSTs but if upper level winds are unfavorable you aren't going to get much development of anything.
Morning all. I like that new fimz model. easier to read than some are. Of course now that it doesn't show something coming to me helps with its popularity. Lol

This mornings CMC and GFS2 show upper TX cost hits 2 days apart. EURO in the neighborhood with blob-ish. Lol. I do think if the models hang on to this it will shift farther south. Kinda eerie they don't show anything crossing Florida on its way here. CMC ala Rita track. GFS2 out of Caribbean.



there shall be a superstorm beginning of august
you are forgetting the two most important things jeff the dust is still prevelant over the atlantic and the shear has picked up over the caribbean sea...i just dont see bonnie on the horizon for quite sometime..this is going to be a boring time this next 2 weeks then conditions should change and bonnie could develop i think more likely in the gom..
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That great if you went to school. But in your first comment you just said heat. You can have 100˚F SSTs but if upper level winds are unfavorable you aren't going to get much development of anything.


And you are right that is true. I'm looking at all variables. Could be easily 5 or 6 cat 3 or higher storms.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I believe we will see our next invest in the SW Caribbean sometime in the next 48 hours. The upward motion of the MJO has begun to come into that region. There are also favorable upper level winds. Something else that we don't see with those flare-ups of convection down there is lower convergence, which this system indeed has. Steering is very weak over this area, but should become stronger and a bit more northerly with time.



Dr. M mentioned that area in his blog yesterday (see above)....Going inland into Honduras/Nicaragua; could also cross over to the E-Pac IMHO if the energy remains intact.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Morning All.

The wave approaching 60W looks a little suspect this morning. Not sure of the shear forecast down the road, rather high now though.


That's our Tuesday rain maker for FL.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Dr. M mentioned that area in his blog yesterday (see above)....Going inland into Honduras/Nicaragua; could also cross over to the E-Pac IMHO if the energy remains intact.
Steering over the area is very weak, so if anything develops there it will likely meander for several days before being picked up with a more WNW motion into Nicaragua/Honduras.

Got to go, later everyone!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That great if you went to school. But in your first comment you just said heat. You can have 100%u02DAF SSTs but if upper level winds are unfavorable you aren't going to get much development of anything.


Quoting TampaSpin:


WHAT! LOL.....KIDDIE SCHOOL AGAIN COMMENT!


Morning Tampa!
Quoting Jeff9641:


Morning Tampa!


HEY JEFF......just protecting my Friend.....UNREAL
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
US Hazards Assessment

Excerpt:

FOR TUESDAY JULY 20 - SATURDAY JULY 24

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN NEAR THE END OF THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS.


Oh boy. According to that it's going to be a brutal summer for a lot of us.
Jeff have you seen the BP live feed...they have a problem with a leak they are saying with the new Top.....LOL....REALLY.....NOT FUNNY but, one almost has to laugh when they say they have a leak.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Jeff have you seen the BP live feed...they have a problem with a leak they are saying with the new Top.....LOL....REALLY.....NOT FUNNY but, one almost has to laugh when they say they have a leak.


I hope this can get fixed soon. Everyday is a promise by BP. That oil is a gushing.
Quoting Jeff9641:
A met in Orlando that I live near told me yesterday that August thru October could one of the wettest in many years for C and S FL.


LOL
Good Morning all!

Anyone have a good graphic reference with coordinates grid, so when I read coordinates I can quickly reference where that is?
Quoting jrweatherman:


LOL


What is so funny about that. With the African wave train directed at FL then yes we could be entering a very wet time starting later next week. Last year was dry for us during that period. Outside of TS FAY in August 2008 was dry, so was 2007, 2006, & 2005. So yes we could have the type of rain we had in 2004 during that period with the pattern in place.
1561. IKE
Quoting stormhank:
Ike i didnt see any type system in GOM on the 06 GFS I saw..It did show a low near the cape verdes out 12 days


It's the parallel GFS 6Z...Link
Quoting DestinJeff:


dude, seriously. if it seemed like you were joking it would be okay I think, but whether you mean to or not, it comes off as terribly combative. what's the purpose?


Jeff just made a general comment about we could see a typhoon like storm and this Kid always has something to post that will oppose something even as general as Jeff posted. If he is gonna post and i do enjoy his humor and knowlegde on here as many but, many are tired of these kids post that challenge even general comments. Its one thing to oppose ones specific statement but, 2 or 3 on here challenge just the general and most general statements for no reason. Everyone have a great day!
Morning all, thought I'd share a line or 2 of this mornings NWS forecast discussion for my area of central Indiana.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HOT. TROPICAL. SULTRY. SWEATY. OVENLIKE. DID WE MENTION HOT?
THESE ARE ALL WORDS THAT COULD BE USED TO DESCRIBE THE WEATHER
TODAY IN CENTRAL INDIANA.


Heat indexes approaching 105 here, which may seem tame to some of you who live south, but for us, this is bout as bad as it gets. Personally, I can't wait till November!
Ok out to make a buck in this tropical tundra, have a nice day all.
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
Good Morning all!

Anyone have a good graphic reference with coordinates grid, so when I read coordinates I can quickly reference where that is?

Hi JBird,
If you go to the NHC site (here) NHC there is an array of satellite photos and the weather discussion available.
To get Satellite you click on that (on the left screen) and then pick your region. The Java or Flash versions will give you grids of whatever region you're looking for.
A lot of folks use the GOES site, but I prefer this one because it's easy to use and you can also see the Tropical Weather Discussions and all of the warnings when there's an active system.
Hope this helps.

P.S. Here's the GOES site link: NOAA You may prefer to use this one because you can get grids on the stills. Just click on the icon of whatever area you're interested and choose from the menu below. You can get InfraRed, WaterVapor, etc.
Good morning, SW caribbean and EATL next AOIs?
Quoting TampaSpin:


Jeff just made a general comment about we could see a typhoon like storm and this Kid always has something to post that will oppose something even as general as Jeff posted. If he is gonna post on here as many and i do many are tired of these kids post that challenge even general comments. Its one thing to oppose ones specific statement but, 2 or 3 on here challenge just the general and most general statements for no reason. Everyone have a great day!


Heck, after what we saw with Alex, it seems possible Jeff may be very well right. I hope he's not, no one needs a Tip like storm, but it seems the ingredients are largely there for something large and impressive in the coming months.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Jeff just made a general comment about we could see a typhoon like storm and this Kid always has something to post that will oppose something even as general as Jeff posted. If he is gonna post and i do enjoy his humor and knowlegde on here as many but, many are tired of these kids post that challenge even general comments. Its one thing to oppose ones specific statement but, 2 or 3 on here challenge just the general and most general statements for no reason. Everyone have a great day!
So you mean minors on this blog in general?


Anyway, have a great day everyone.
Thanks Chicklit for the reply.

Looking for something like this but without the current satellite images imposed.
Just a template to look at when I want to reference the location of specific coordinates of a wave.



yes stormpetrol are you ready for the SW Carib AOI
1571. MahFL
Hurricane tracking chart, from, yes you said it the NHC....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_atlantic.pdf

NEW BLOG!!!!!
Quoting MahFL:
Hurricane tracking chart, from, yes you said it the NHC....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_atlantic.pdf



MahFL....PERFECT!
Thanks so much ya'll.
Quoting Jeff9641:
A met in Orlando that I live near told me yesterday that August thru October could one of the wettest in many years for C and S FL.



I don't know if I believe that, I thought this year would be real wet like last year, but sadly, ever since La Nina began to pop, things have really dried out around here.

Yeah we had that really wet pattern in late June into early this month, but other than that there has been nothing but clear skies and isolated storms. Lame and dry, just like June was.

dude we might just be headed back into another drought again in Florida :(


It still has never has been as wet in stormy as it used to be when I was real young. My dad would always tell me about when he grew up, year after year, you could count on a big thunderstorm every single afternoon almost, June through September.

Not anymore.... I wonder if Florida will be the newest subtropical desert in 50 years? We are getting a head start.


Cause my area averages 58 inches of rain a year, we used to get more then that pretty often during my early days. Now we are lucky to hit 40 these days it seems.
Really this blog will lose it's integrity with kids who just want to disagree...Find yourself a juvenile weather site with cartoons!!