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Typhoon Chebi less destructive than feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:04 PM GMT on November 11, 2006

Typhoon Chebi slammed into the main island of Luzon in the Philippines last night at 6pm EST as a Category 3 storm with top winds of 120 mph. There are no reports of deaths yet, and damage appears to be much less than occurred for Super Typhoon Cimaron, which made landfall October 29 as a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 160-180 mph. Cimaron killed at least 15, left 2500 homeless, and destroyed about 8% of the island's rice and corn crop. However, Chebi was a much weaker typhoon, and dumped far less rain on the Philippines since it moved across the islands relatively quickly. Rainfall estimates by NOAA (Figure 1) show maximum rain amounts from Chebi were in the 4-7 inch range, which should not cause the kind of widespread flash flooding and landslides that are the primary hazard of typhoons in the Philippines. Cimaron dumped about 50% more rain on the Philippines than Chebi did.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for Typhoon Chebi. Image credit: NOAA


Figure 2. Typhoon Chebi shortly after landfall. Image credit: NRL Navy Reasearch Lab.

My next blog will be Monday, when I plan to discuss a new hurricane-like storm found on Saturn.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1st

did you all her that i got my old ids high jack last night
Great news again for the Phillipines.We hoped for a slight impact.
Hi all. Anyone see that little bit of moisture moving into the gulf this morning? I think its the tail end of that front. Who says its not to late in the season?

In other news today 20% chance of rain here. Could it break the 109 days without rain?
i did but you gave your password they said
They said? As in trolls? Don't believe them. I have gotten emails from others that say that they really are hackers (they didn't say how they knew). Hopefully, admin will do something before they do something really bad.
i am takein care of that part i am sending aron a nic long e mail
Tazmanian FAVORITES BLOCKED
TO: hurricanealley
DATE: 2006-11-11 01:38:02 (1:38 AM EST)
SUBJECT: no subject
that is not me in the chat some how the troll got in 2 my old IDs it is not me in the chat room they took my id




then a troll send me this yesterday




Other people had their IDs hacked as well... I found about 10 new emails in my inbox when I came on earlier warning me of trolls and hijacked IDs.
"The winds are powerful and the flood waters are high. People have been awake since 3 a.m.," Department of Environment officer James Martinez said in an interview on Radio DZRH from Dilasag town in Aurora province.

Martinez said local authorities were advising residents in low-lying areas to evacuate to higher ground.

Radio reports said cell phone signals and power lines were knocked down in the province and there was damage to houses, but there were no casualties.


Full article on Queenie AKA Chebi
Quirino under state of calamity (from about 20 mins ago)

TUGUEGARAO CITY - Just as typhoon Queenie battered Northern Luzon Saturday, aggravating flooding in several villages in Cagayan Valley, including this city, officials of Quirino province declared a state of calamity due to the havoc wreaked by the previous typhoon Paeng.

Regional disaster management officials said Queenie, packing maximum sustained winds of 230 kilometers per hour (kph), caused flooding in at least 30 villages in southern Cagayan, including this city, as well as in Nueva Vizcaya, Isabela and Quirino, forcing at least 15,000 families to flee to safer grounds.

Reports reaching the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) said the typhoon placed Quirino under total blackout, while the central and northern areas of Aurora suffered power outages.

According to the NDCC, floodwaters in four barangays in Casiguran, Aurora Poblacion, Marikit, Tabas, and Calangcuasan reached two feet high.
The Baler-Casiguran and Nueva Ecija-Aurora roads were rendered impassable to all types of vehicles due to fallen electric posts, uprooted trees and heavy floods, the NDCC said.

Queenie, according to weather forecasters, weakened, with winds of 170 kph, before noon Saturday after it made a landfall near Casiguran, Aurora.

Officials of the National Irrigation Administration at the Magat Dam in Ramon, Isabela decided to release water even before Queenie pounded the region to ease pressure on the dam and to prevent further flooding in low-lying villages in northern Isabela and southern Cagayan.

A number of these villages remain isolated, including at least 50 communities along the Cagayan River in Ilagan town, the capital of Isabela, due to floods spawned by Paeng.
I encountered these trolls last night. They are quite cunning and extremely ruthless. The one who call himself David is the worst.

Their names....

SuperTyphoon

DAVIDKRZW

CaneWatcher06

TheLuckyTacoBlizzard

If you see these people, let it be known their here for trouble and nothing more.
Wishcaster, those were IDs stolen from Taz (he either gave out his passwords and emails, or somebody really did hack into the system). Hopefully, it won't happen again.
That's great news Dr. Masters.
Good afternoon,

Global models seem in pretty good agreement this afternoon on something tropical developing in the western caribbean...Time will tell if it actually takes place.
I'm in winter mode.
O.NEW.KPQR.HW.A.0016.061113T0400Z- 061113T1200Z/ LOWER COLUMBIA-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA- CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY- NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS- CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY- GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. HELENS... CLATSKANIE...HILLSBORO... PORTLAND... OREGON CITY...GRESHAM...SALEM... MCMINNVILLE...DALLAS... EUGENE... CORVALLIS...ALBANY...SANDY...SILVER FALLS STATE PARK... SWEET HOME... VIDA...LOWELL...COTTAGE GROVE... LONGVIEW...KELSO... CASTLE ROCK... VANCOUVER...BATTLE GROUND... WASHOUGAL...TOUTLE... ARIEL...COUGAR 1022 AM PST SAT NOV 11 2006
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA...THE GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA...THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY...THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY ...THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS...THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...THE GREATER VANCOUVER AREA AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA...THE GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA...THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY...THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY ...THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS...THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...THE GREATER VANCOUVER AREA AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE NEAR THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO WASHINGTON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXACT TRACK AND ARRIVAL TIME OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND IT WILL EFFECT HOW STRONG THE WINDS ARE AND WHEN THEY BEGIN. METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD BE FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE A WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL CAUSE STRONG WINDS OVER HE LOWER COLUMBIA...THE GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA...THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY...THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY ...THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS...THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...THE GREATER VANCOUVER AREA AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS. IF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TOWARD WASHINGTON AS MOST COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THEN SOUTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS 60 MPH BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THE LOW MOVES INLAND FURTHER SOUTH THEN WINDS WOULD BE LESS AND MIGHT NOT EVEN REACH THE HIGH WIND CATEGORY.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

Yahoo!

What do we call this Storm? Thingaorbitalsolarwindsaturncolossalnasacatastrophiccane

A colossal, swirling storm with a well-developed eye is churning at Saturn's south pole, the first time a truly hurricane-like storm has been detected on a planet other than Earth,
NASA images showed on Thursday.

The storm on the giant, ringed planet is about 5,000 miles

wide, measuring roughly two thirds the diameter of Earth, with winds howling clockwise at 350 mph (550 kph).

spacecane
This looks cool - for PC only right now :c(

NASA World Wind is available as a full install, or as an update to a previous release. You may use it under the terms of the NASA Open Source Agreement.

http://worldwind.arc.nasa.gov/download.html
I'm bored nothing in the atlantic, but I am excited about the winter weather in my area coming up around thanksgiving
Here's a view at the 12z nogaps....



Complete 12z loop
HEY EVERYBODY!!!!JUST LOOKED AT THE NEW 18UTC GFS LOOP SEEMS TO DEVELOP THE LOW RIGHT NOW SOMEWHERE NEAR PANAMA AND MOVES IT ALL OVER THE CARRIBEAN AND THEN HEADING RIGHT TOWARDS S,FLA. STILL TOO LONG TO SEE IF WE MIGHT GET IMPACT OR IF THIS SCENARIO EVEN TURNS OUT BUT AS I JUST READ WHAT MY BUDDY HURRICANE23 SAYS IS THAT OTHER MODELS ARE ALOS DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM.
25. N3EG
A hurricane on Saturn? Really?

Wait a minute - it's at the south pole and Saturn's really cold, so it's extratropical. Never mind...
HEY HURRICANE23, RIGHT NOW IM AT MY FRIENDS HOUSE AND HIS INTERNET IS SLOW AND I AM NOT ABLE TO SEE THE MODELS LIKE THE NOGAPS.IF U CAN CAN U PLEASE POST MORE IMAGES LIKE THE ONE U POSTED ABOVE!!!!!!
wind shaer way 2 high it will not do a thing if it dos
Pleasant evening to all. Everything as it should be ?
For your information...... its been raining on me off and on all day, nice gentle showers, courtesy a little fluff from the ITCZ. Made a pretty sunset over the Gulf of Paria as the sun sank into the Andes.
And it is an evening for Pottery is it not?
Something like this?

It is indeed an evening Mr. Wishcaster. A glass of fine El Dorado 15 yr old rum, and a pleasant one at that. How about you ?
Ah Wishcaster, you have it. In the foreground is the Trinidad Yatch club, from whence we venture forth for the Wahoo. In January......
Your rum is as old as me, quite disturbing I might add. Me? about me you see I have been engaged in the most foul of related issues that attend the house.
Sounds a bit grim. For info. again, thousands of images at caribbeanstockphotography.com
hi pottery.
Pottery...a shot from today's air show.





So how was your day Pottery?
Rand, the foreground has me beaten, but I think the background is a P21 ???? looks a little squat though.......
Pottery we had a bad day today in Pakistan
Good evening,

The model support continue's for some type of tropical development in the western caribbean...

Here is the 18z GFS showing this disturbance moving into southflorida.


RYANG< did not mean to blank you. What happened in Pakistan? I didnt have a moment to check it out today........
MM5 also showing development along with the CMC,GFS and the Nogaps.Time will tell if something does indeed get going down there.


Hurricane 23, thanks for keeping us informed on the weather. I look forward to your posts.
No, I'm not here Crab!
wow looks like all of the models are showing development in the southern carribean and moving north.
could this be the "great" thanksgiving hurricane?
I kinda doubt it Wayne.
Yeah, that West Carib is all fired up.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting



NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
...
...ITCZ...
...
A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N99W
WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 99W-103W.
...

...DISCUSSION...
...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N100W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N
ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1008 MB LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ.
...


RGB Loop
06z GFS forming something in the Western Carribbean.
but wind shear is 2 high overe the Western Carribbean and gulf so if any thing going 2 do any thing in the Western Carribbean for get it it will not last a day do 2 the stong wind shear up 2 50 80 kts

bye all going back 2 bed
Link somethings hapinig!!
Link 18gfs run is impressive! :) bye
:)
the 1008mb low that : LowerCal was talking about is now 96E
What is that blob?
Do you think the blob of the mexacan coast will develope?
exscuse me for my spelling
Please, no tropical weather for us in LA. I'm trying to get a few good days of duck hunting in next week, keep the cold fronts coming!
Yea but thats over 120 hours away
Goodday, all,

What's that just east of Trini and Barbados there? Is this what the models were picking up yesterday?

Posted By: stormchasher at 9:12 AM CST on November 12, 2006.

Link 18gfs run is impressive! :) bye
:)


The loopy path reminds me of this storm (which also formed in a strong El Nino year; in fact, the strongest storm in 1994 formed in November).
Well, if it's an invest now, show me some models when they come up. Otherwise, this blob has some issues to overcome.

Otherwise, until the NHC picks it up, I'm not going to let it ruin my day.
Hi! :)
Well, looks like Dr. Masters may have to mention a possible storm forming in the Carribbean next week. The 12z runs for the CMC, GFS and NOGAPS all form a system, each model varying in strength, with the CMC blowing this thing up to hurricane status, while GFS and NOGAPS showing strong TS.

This is the ONLY area in the entire Tropical Atlantic that has any chance of producing a system. Stay tuned...
Good afternoon,

I think its time to pay very close attention on developments in the western caribbean as there is big time consensus in the global models.

Here is the 12z CMC which is very agressive on its development!


but it will not do a thing wind shear is way 2 high
Taz all models are in very strong agreement on developing some type of tropical feature in the western caribbean in the next couple of days.SST'S are still warm enough to support a pretty strong hurricane.
Hey Taz, 23. Taz, regarding the shear values, that is for right now. This system being predicted is days away and as well all have been taught over the last couple of years, shear levels change constantly day to day.

Now, I will do some research to see what the GFS model is predicting for shear days out. That might help....

That being said, this is the first time in several weeks that three big models are all showing something more than a weak TD or wave. We need to watch this one. Also remember, on the flip side, we need to see if the models remain consistant with this feature, or if they back off on the next couple of runs.
If any of you like ryang come to his blog!!! URGENT!!!
I agree nash28....The CMC,NOGAPS, and the GFS have been fairly persistent so far.The canadian model is the most aggressive with development.Maybe the trigger that gets things going in the western caribbean is the wave currently moving threw the islands.


How strong can this get 23?
stormchasher that is unknown at the present time with each global model varying in intensity.When you see this much model agreement its time to pay attention.

PS! Check your mail!
Wouldnt it stink if there was a Great Thanksgiving Hurricane?
Ok thanks 23:)
Heres most of the ModelsLink
Ok, let's not all get carried away here. The models need to show some consistency, other than two model runs today. If they continue to show the same thing into tomorrow and beyond, then we really need to pay close attention.

I have seen too many runs showing a significant storm forming, only to find that the following mornings runs drop it. Let's see if the models still show this tomorrow.
Nash28 global models have been hinting on development since nov 10 with different scenarios playing out.But overall futher consistency with the models will be key.
Looks like the NOGAPS is changing its mind at the end of the loop!! Link
Howdy do everyone. Everyone having a good day? Is that a ULL off the coast of Virginia/Maryland? Kinda reminds me of Thingamabobbercane.
Well guys, regardless of what actually comes of this system the models are predicting, I believe it is safe to say we will have an Invest at the very least sometime this week:-)
finally some action and the major models are agreeing of some development, i say we get a minimal hurricane to be optimistic.
I wouldn't go that far just yet Drakoen. First, we need to monitor the shear levels in that area and see how it is behaving. Secondly, due to the synoptic pattern we have been embedded in for quite some time now, shear levels in the Gulf and Northern Carribbean have been very high, so any change there would be significant. I believe we will get a TD out of this, but beyond that??? Too early to tell. Let's see if the models continue to be in good agreement...
Careful how you use that "O" word Drakoen.
Thanks for the viewpoint of experience nash.
lol why? should i say pesimistic?
I think that's what most in the possible crosshairs might feel. :)
What an active season its been in the pacific this year...

Here's a view at invest 96E!


Just looked at the 18z GFS and it continues to be very persistent in developing a tropical system in the western caribbean.

18z GFS loop
The 18z NAM is also showing development...
wow that track for that thing shifted a lot.
I see that. This time, it takes the system over Hispanola and out to sea, once again sparing the U.S. from a hit.

Let's see if our luck will continue...

I expect track guidance disagreement on this one...
Hurricaneblast global models indicate that tropical cyclone development might occur in the western caribbean.Some models are more aggressive then others and tracks are also vary with each model.The key thing to look at here is the overall consistency in the models.
119. 882MB
HEY EVERYBODY,JUST PASSIN BY QUICK TO TALK ABOUT THIS WESTERN CARRIBEAN DEVELOPMENT.ALL THE MODELS DEVELOPING SOMETHING BIG.WELL SEE YA TOMMOROW!!!!!!!
Yep 882MB. We may actually have something on Dr. Masters blog to discuss this week!!!!
hmm dont hope it is something like lenny
Go visit my blog for further details if you choose to.
tommorow it is also the day td lenny was born =/ dunt like it too much cause it was a badass hurricane
nash28 check your mail!
so this thing is suppose to go to south florida
Miami---

Not gonna discuss any tracks of something that hasn't even formed yet. Not being combative, but we need to see if the models continue to be in good agreement of genesis and whether this thing actually forms.....

Side note-- I hope the models are wrong...
me too nash i was just saying how blessed we have been this hurricane season
Posted By: 147257 at 6:40 PM EST on November 12, 2006.

hmm dont hope it is something like lenny.

I dont think overall conditions will favor significant intensification of system like the likes of LENNY.

Here is a visible pic of lenny in 1999...

129. PGIFL
Are we going to have to put our storm shutters
up again in SW Florida ?
Absolutely Miami. We have been blessed this year. Thank God!!!! We don't need anything....

Let them all be fishy storms. Great for study and no one gets hurt.
Posted By: PGIFL at 7:03 PM EST on November 12, 2006.

Are we going to have to put our storm shutters
up again in SW Florida ?

I also live in southflorida and for now there is not much to worry about but with so much model aggrement in my opinion its worth keeping a close eye on the situation.

Miamiweather check your mail!
the wave that was in the south linward islands looks completely blown out
134. ryang
hi all.
Could the low at 30N 50W & moving South in to a low shear environment pick up a gulp of warm air? "Thingamabobbercane" did it with 15-16C.
Hi ryan, good to see you back. How was the weather in Barbados today?
Final #s on Queenie (Typhoon Chebi), in the Philippines. 1 dead, 5 missing, 9 hurt & 8,580 displaced.

A drunken man was reported to have drowned in a swollen creek after he fell off a bamboo bridge in Casiguran town..

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Service Administration said Chebi is expected to gain strength as it heads toward Vietnam.

The typhoon hit landfall Saturday packing maximum winds of 131 mph resulting to the injury of eight persons in Casiguran.

Reports also said that at least five fishermen were missing when their outrigger boats capsized near Sabang, Quezon.
Hellooo all, There is weather to discuss................
SFL is a long ways off from worring about anything gitten 'em from the Caribbean. Now those in Jamaica & areas around there (CMC) might want to think about what you may need to get if we see more consistancy with the runs & something develops. Seems the models are torn on how much influence the front will have on the possible disterbance.
Weather in Trinidad today, loads of rain in my guage ( I havent checked how much ) I was out for the day........
I was just gonna ask.. Pottery. That wave looks like it weakened alot today. Still raining?
Pottery,
Did you get rained on too, or just your gauge? ;)
Wind?
The 998mb Gale that is currently off the coast of NC.



The gale is kickin some waves. That looks more like an erosion set up then a good surf set up.
Storm, US East CoastLink
Hi Skye, . Not raining now but overcast. The rain today was unusual in that it was very stormy in appearance, but the rain fell in isolated heavy showers islandwide. I only got 1.25 " but where I was today felt like about 3" in 30 mins. The wave does look to be less well defined than it did earlier, I agree...Cant see it holding out, but this has been the season for peculiar.
No wind at all
Buoy41025 Nc Coast,AtlanticLink
Winds up...as it approachesLink
More Buoys in the area...Link
Hiya Pat. How goes it?
.....and no lightning either.
Patrap that wind gust is near 50 kts...
Its a blowing..Beach erosion...and lotsa sustained winds..too
Watching this big Hybrid thing nash...itsa very interesting
Ryang, you here ?????
na
Yes it is Pat. Seems like we have quite a bit of actual weather to discuss this week:-)
Heres the Norfolk radar..Link
Stormtops to only 9-10k..but moving a good 40plus clip..around the CoCLink
Its winding up the gradient faster than expected I think...
163. V26R
Impressive Water Vapor Shot of the Low Moving off the VA/NC Boarder, Winds Gusting to 30mph here in NYC now
Go Giants!!!
00Z NAM still going with development in the western caribbean....

00Z NAM loop
Hurricane 23, If something were to develop in the Western Caribbean, where would it likely head and when?
A number of storms that formed in 2005 exhibited unusual behavior and challenged forecasters' ability to make correct predictions. Hurricane Vince formed farther northeast in the Atlantic than any other tropical cyclone on record, and then unexpectedly reached hurricane strength over waters considered too cold to support a hurricane.[38] Hurricane Wilma became one of the fastest-intensifying hurricanes on record, and later strengthened unexpectedly in the face of strong wind shear.[49] Tropical Storm Delta, Hurricane Epsilon and Tropical Storm Zeta all formed over the cold waters of the late-season eastern Atlantic, much like Hurricane Vince (though at lower latitudes). All three persisted in the face of heavy wind shear, and Epsilon managed to reach hurricane strength over waters well below the temperatures previously thought necessary for hurricane formation. Epsilon became the longest-lasting December hurricane[44] while Zeta became the longest-lasting storm in January.[45]

The GFDL develops a Category 4 hurricane in the East Pacific!



Hey ajcamsmom! Global models indicate that tropical cyclone development might occur in the western caribbean.Some models are more aggressive then others and tracks are also vary with each model.The key thing to look at here is the overall consensus in the models.

NOTE:The GFDL is also showing low-pressure in the western caribbean.
ok ok ...I'M back....P-trap...you still out there
jjjhhheesssss..gets slow at night now.lol
yo pat............
ok...goner...see ya'll
not much shear in southwest caribbean
Good morning,

Just checking in real quick before going to work The 00z GFS continues being very persistent with development in the southwest caribbean .
Well this storm (if it does form) would make the Atlantic top out as an "average year". I'm amazed and extremely thankful for this years inactivity. I hope it stays like this next year too. The people who were affected by the hurricanes last year deserve this kind of break from storms.
Morning all,

I've been reading yesterday's discussion and looking at the forecast models' 00Z runs. It seems they are all more consistent about developing something in the EPac than in the WCar. CMC seems to have practically dropped the WCar feature.

Wonder if we'll see a similar shift at 12Z . . .
This is the tropical discussion comment on the wave we have been following. It sounds very noncommittal to me.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN
A BIT AND IT REMAINS LESS OBVIOUS THAN IT WAS A FEW DAYS AGO.
SOME CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD FIELD
STILL IS EVIDENT FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. A TROUGH
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N51W AND GOES TO 22N58W...
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N66W...TO THE AREA
OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
IS BEING PRODUCED ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE
IS MOVING. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO IS NORTH OF 15N60W
13N65W 12N70W BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W...AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
182. Fast5
The GOES Floater Imagery 30 minute updates has been inactive since last night.
Hum, got a Sat. down?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
: cyclonebuster stop postin tha her in dr m blog i am starting 2 get try of seeing the same post evere 5ms or waht evere
cyclonebuster i dont give a rate


the nhc Mission is help To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic


that what the nhc dos now what is your point stop posting the same thing or i will it ! if you want 2 post it in your blog find but not of dr m blog Please stop posting the same thing evere 5ms none of us give a rate
The East coast radar animated..Wet Day in the N-Linkeast.
cb.......ok...here's your mission...you want something to do that is constructive rather than pie in the sky dreaming....prove....that golobal warming...is indeed man made...rather than a natural occurence
The next US Storm by the GFSx and a lil blip in the Carribean..up and away!...Link
Good morning folks. Let's discuss the possible tropical development in the W. Carribbean this week.

I'll be off and on this morning. I have a meeting right now, so I'll be back in a bit.
nah...do you see anywhere that the shear will die down enough for development?
quickscat of the gale

I think it slightly weakened through the night, now 1000mb.

ricderr~ I would like to challenge you to find one current scientific study, that is not funded by an oil company, that says global warming is not in anyway caused by humans. If you do please e-mail it to me & Dr Masters would probibly like a link too as this challenge has been set forth to all in the past & noone thus far has completed the task at hand. Good luck on your quest & remember to check sources & funding carefully.
skye......i will do my best....sounds like fun
Yeah Ric. That area that the models are forecasting development is under about 10kts of shear. It is the only area favorable for development.
ok...skye....let's start with this.....in a 2 minute search i'm not sure yet if i agree...but just using this as one of many that support my viewpoint of GW....will need to research more to see if i agree totally or not..then..i'll research the money trail....here's who they are first


The National Research Council is part of the National Academies, which also comprise the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering and Institute of Medicine. They are private, nonprofit institutions that provide science, technology and health policy advice under a congressional charter. The Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of further knowledge and advising the federal government.
point number one....that must be addressed.....regardless of which side of the fence you sit on........
Although warming at Earth's surface has been quite pronounced during the past few decades, satellite measurements beginning in 1979 indicate relatively little warming of air temperature in the troposphere. The committee concurs with the findings of a recent National Research Council report,1 which concluded that the observed difference between surface and tropospheric temperature trends during the past 20 years is probably real, as well as its cautionary statement to the effect that temperature trends based on such short periods of record, with arbitrary start and end points, are not necessarily indicative of the long-term behavior of the climate system. The finding that surface and troposphere temperature trends have been as different as observed over intervals as long as a decade or two is difficult to reconcile with our current understanding of the processes that control the vertical distribution of temperature in the atmosphere.


next........

THE EFFECT OF HUMAN ACTIVITIES
Because of the large and still uncertain level of natural variability inherent in the climate record and the uncertainties in the time histories of the various forcing agents (and particularly aerosols), a causal linkage between the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the observed climate changes during the 20th century cannot be unequivocally established. The fact that the magnitude of the observed warming is large in comparison to natural variability as simulated in climate models is suggestive of such a linkage, but it does not constitute proof of one because the model simulations could be deficient in natural variability on the decadal to century time scale. The warming that has been estimated to have occurred in response to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is somewhat greater than the observed warming. At least some of this excess warming has been offset by the cooling effect of sulfate aerosols, and in any case one should not necessarily expect an exact correspondence because of the presence of natural variability.
In the year 2525
If man is still alive..Link
ric,

Thanks for the postings on GW. Appreciate your effort to avoid polemics & stick to serious studies.

Guess my take on that is that, given the general agreement on the dire consequences of continued GW, if there is any possibility that human activity is a contributing factor (not necessarily the sole cause), we should do something about what is under our control.
We shall see .....but stash some freon..just in case.LOL!
Im all for Iceberg herding..Yahooooo!
seaknight...we can quote so many needs for reducing oil and lessenning polution..without using unproven global warming theories as the catalyst
Seriously..heres a good read on the CO2 discussion..with the numbers and graphs from an unbiased source.Great readLink
Its sort of dated material..But the numbers have grown ..if I can find the darn thing I saved with the recent data somewhere around this System running on Gum..and gentle taps Ive got.LOL
A more recent paper on Co2rise and Hurricanes, with simulationsLink
As for your 1st example..
Does the Research Council do research? Fund research?

The National Research Council has no research laboratories. Rather than conducting its own research, it generally evaluates and compiles research done by others. However, in a few cases and increasingly so in recent years, the institution has been funding research in areas such as transportation, medical care, highways, and international scientific and technical programs in developing countries.

So without a link there, we can't see what funded their references, if the references are even listed.

source

The National Research Council is mostly funded by the government, though a small % is funded by industrial organizations.

Your second example doesn't fit in the catagory of current research. Current is important as more resources & better tests have been developed to prove or disprove.
You realise that last article says CO2 is expected to raise the SSTs? NOAA totally says global warming is inpart due to humans & has for the last few years.