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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Typhoon Bopha hits the Philippines at Cat 5 strength; at least 40 killed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:00 PM GMT on December 04, 2012

Typhoon Bopha slammed ashore on the Philippine island of Mindanao at 4:45 am local time on Tuesday morning as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Bopha is the third Category 5 typhoon to affect the Western Pacific this year, and the strongest typhoon ever recorded to hit Mindanao, which rarely sees strong typhoons due to its position close to the Equator. The death toll from the powerful storm already stands at 40, and is expected to rise. While passage over land has weakened Bopha to a Category 2 storm, the tropical cyclone is spreading torrential rains over a large portion of the southern Philippine Islands, and this will cause serious flooding problems today. The island of Mindanao is highly vulnerable to flood disasters from tropical cyclones; last year's Tropical Storm Washi, which hit Mindanao on December 16, 2011 with 60 mph winds and torrential rains, killed over 1500 people. Before hitting the Philippines, Typhoon Bopha brought a storm surge estimated at ten feet to the island nation of Palau, where near-total destruction is being reported in some coastal areas.


Figure 1. Super Typhoon Bopha as seen from the International Space Station on December 2, 2012. At the time, Bopha had top sustained winds of 150 - 155 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Bopha: the 2nd most southerly Category 5 typhoon on record
Bopha, a Cambodian word for flower or a girl, became a tropical depression unusually close to the Equator, at 3.6°N latitude. Tropical cyclones rarely form so close to the Equator, because they cannot leverage the Earth's rotation to get themselves spinning. Bopha became the second most southerly Category 5 typhoon on Monday at 7.4°N latitude. The record is held by Typhoon Louise of 1964, which was a Category 5 storm at 7.3°N.


Video 1. Scenes of wind damage and flooding from Typhoon Bopha's landfall in the Philippines yesterday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc!!
Thanks for the new post! Hopefully the death toll doesn't rise much further... but that is not anticipated ...
Thank you Dr. Masters
Thanks Jeff...
Thanks a lot for the update, Dr. Masters!

From the last blog:

So it was true after all ...

CDO police chief gets flak for breakfast priority

report from Primy Cane, ABS-CBN News Northern Mindanao
Posted at 12/04/2012 9:12 PM | Updated as of 12/04/2012 9:12 PM

CAGAYAN DE ORO, Philippines - The Cagayan de Oro (CDO) City police chief is receiving flak for making breakfast his top priority instead of helping people threatened by Typhoon Pablo leave for safer grounds.

Read more
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Thanks Dr. masters for the update..
Prayers to those souls affected by Bopha..
Thanks Doc.
Quoting indianrivguy:


I don't think it was the levees protecting from "ocean" storm surge that failed.. it was the levees around Pontchartrain.


Surge on Pontchartrain was over 18ft, and actually knocked parts of the Causeway off their pylons, if I remember correctly.

This is the old SS scale:



The 18ft or more was considered a category 5 storm surge, and the scale was originally intended to classify storms by an either/or system, which was never actually used, not just the winds.

I believe TWC played the video from Slidell area repeatedly with the guy who stayed behind and filmed it all from his house.

And I might add that Slidell had that much surge, even though the wind there was out of the north and would have been contrary to "normal" setup.
Here you go RTS

Overtopping of levees in the Eastern New Orleans

According to Professor Raymond Seed of the University of California, Berkeley, a surge of water estimated at 24 feet (7 m), about 10 feet (3 m) higher than the height of the levees along the city's eastern flank, swept into New Orleans from the Gulf of Mexico, causing most of the flooding in the city. He said that storm surge from Lake Borgne travelling up the Intracoastal Waterway caused the breaches on the Industrial Canal.

Aerial evaluation revealed damage to approximately 90% of some levee systems in the east which should have protected St. Bernard Parish.
Portion of the flood wall atop 17th Street Canal levee, with Katrina-related graffiti. Notice cracks in the flood wall joints. Maintenance and inspection are the responsibility of local levee boards as mandated by the Flood Control Act of 1928
National Academy of Sciences Investigation

On October 19, 2005, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld announced that an independent panel of experts, under the direction of the National Academy of Sciences, would convene to evaluate the performance of the New Orleans levee system, and issue a final report in eight months. The panel would study the results provided by the two existing teams of experts that had already examined the levee failures.
Senate Committee hearings

Preliminary investigations and evidence were presented before the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs on November 2, 2005, and generally confirmed the findings of the preliminary investigations.

On November 9, 2005, The Government Accountability Office testified before the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. The report cited the Flood Control Act of 1965, which authorized the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to design and construct a flood protection system to protect south Louisiana from the strongest storms characteristic of the region.
Corps of Engineers admits problems with design

On April 5, 2006, months after independent investigators had demonstrated that the levee failures were not due to natural forces beyond intended design strength, Lt. Gen. Carl Strock testified before the U.S. Senate Subcommittee on Energy and Water that, "We have now concluded we had problems with the design of the structure." He also testified that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers did not know of this mechanism of failure prior to August 29, 2005. The claim of ignorance is refuted, however, by the National Science Foundation investigators hired by the Army Corps of Engineers, who point to a 1986 study by the corps itself that such separations were possible in the I-wall design.[

Nearly two months later, on June 1, 2006, the USACE finalized their report. The final draft of the IPET report states the destructive forces of Katrina were "aided by incomplete protection, lower than authorized structures, and levee sections with erodible materials." The reasons that particular decisions were made concerning incomplete protection, lower structures, and erodible materials were used remains in dispute.


Then there is this.

n August 2007, the Corps released an analysis revealing that their floodwalls were so poorly designed that the maximum safe load is only 7 feet (2.1 m) of water, which is half the original 14-foot (4.3 m) design.[22]
81 dead as Pablo rips through Mindanao

Numbers are still rising by the hour.
Quoting barbamz:
81 dead as Pablo rips through Mindanao

Numbers are still rising by the hour.
I'm sure it will be shocking when it is finally over..............Sad
If TS Washi caused 1500 deaths from flooding last year,its hard to imagine what will happen getting hit with a Cat 5
Quoting nymore:
Here you go RTS

Overtopping of levees in the Eastern New Orleans

According to Professor Raymond Seed of the University of California, Berkeley, a surge of water estimated at 24 feet (7 m), about 10 feet (3 m) higher than the height of the levees along the city's eastern flank, swept into New Orleans from the Gulf of Mexico, causing most of the flooding in the city. He said that storm surge from Lake Borgne travelling up the Intracoastal Waterway caused the breaches on the Industrial Canal.

Aerial evaluation revealed damage to approximately 90% of some levee systems in the east which should have protected St. Bernard Parish.
Portion of the flood wall atop 17th Street Canal levee, with Katrina-related graffiti. Notice cracks in the flood wall joints. Maintenance and inspection are the responsibility of local levee boards as mandated by the Flood Control Act of 1928
National Academy of Sciences Investigation

On October 19, 2005, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld announced that an independent panel of experts, under the direction of the National Academy of Sciences, would convene to evaluate the performance of the New Orleans levee system, and issue a final report in eight months. The panel would study the results provided by the two existing teams of experts that had already examined the levee failures.
Senate Committee hearings

Preliminary investigations and evidence were presented before the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs on November 2, 2005, and generally confirmed the findings of the preliminary investigations.

On November 9, 2005, The Government Accountability Office testified before the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. The report cited the Flood Control Act of 1965, which authorized the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to design and construct a flood protection system to protect south Louisiana from the strongest storms characteristic of the region.
Corps of Engineers admits problems with design

On April 5, 2006, months after independent investigators had demonstrated that the levee failures were not due to natural forces beyond intended design strength, Lt. Gen. Carl Strock testified before the U.S. Senate Subcommittee on Energy and Water that, "We have now concluded we had problems with the design of the structure." He also testified that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers did not know of this mechanism of failure prior to August 29, 2005. The claim of ignorance is refuted, however, by the National Science Foundation investigators hired by the Army Corps of Engineers, who point to a 1986 study by the corps itself that such separations were possible in the I-wall design.[

Nearly two months later, on June 1, 2006, the USACE finalized their report. The final draft of the IPET report states the destructive forces of Katrina were "aided by incomplete protection, lower than authorized structures, and levee sections with erodible materials." The reasons that particular decisions were made concerning incomplete protection, lower structures, and erodible materials were used remains in dispute.


Then there is this.

n August 2007, the Corps released an analysis revealing that their floodwalls were so poorly designed that the maximum safe load is only 7 feet (2.1 m) of water, which is half the original 14-foot (4.3 m) design.[22]
nymore.....I am a history and military buff..... I admire general Honore a great deal.. I think if he had a better communication skills with the laymen he would be better received.... He just doesn't have the "click"...But he is a great man
Quoting NEwxguy:
If TS Washi caused 1500 deaths from flooding last year,its hard to imagine what will happen getting hit with a Cat 5


In mountainous terrain, a slow moving tropical storm can be much more deadly than a fast moving major hurricane.
Quoting yonzabam:


In mountainous terrain, a slow moving tropical storm can be much more deadly than a fast moving major hurricane.


You got it.


Quoting nymore:
Here you go RTS

Overtopping of levees in the Eastern New Orleans

According to Professor Raymond Seed of the University of California, Berkeley, a surge of water estimated at 24 feet (7 m), about 10 feet (3 m) higher than the height of the levees along the city's eastern flank, swept into New Orleans from the Gulf of Mexico, causing most of the flooding in the city.


Ok, we can stop right there. The article says so itself that the water level was 10 feet above the levee. This means the levee would not have protected anyone even if it was the most perfectly built and maintained structure in human history.



Then there is this.

n August 2007, the Corps released an analysis revealing that their floodwalls were so poorly designed that the maximum safe load is only 7 feet (2.1 m) of water, which is half the original 14-foot (4.3 m) design.[22]


That's an engineering failure on the part of someone who's probably been dead for several decades. Who living should be blamed for that?

It's also irrelevant because again, the opening paragraph shows the water was too high to be stopped anyway. Even if it was a perfect design and perfectly maintained, it was 10feet lower than the surge height, so it wouldn't matter. If it had been a solid block of flawless, stainless steel, it would not have stopped the surge, because it wasn't high enough anyway.

It's irrelevant to the loss of life, because intelligent people shouldn't stay behind in a location that is below sea level anyway, levee or no levee.

So now who are you going to blame for a "mistake" that actually did not matter? The surge was like twice as high as designed anyway, and even if it had mattered, the mistake was made by people who are already dead.
Quoting NEwxguy:
If TS Washi caused 1500 deaths from flooding last year,its hard to imagine what will happen getting hit with a Cat 5


Much different system, New England Man.


Thanks for the new post, Dr. Masters. Love the ISS image... ;-)
Quoting yonzabam:


In mountainous terrain, a slow moving tropical storm can be much more deadly than a fast moving major hurricane.

Washi really wasn't that slow-moving.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
nymore.....I am a history and military buff..... I admire general Honore a great deal.. I think if he had a better communication aspect with the laymen he would be better received.... He just doesn't have the "click"...But he is a great man


He sure had to pick up a bag of worms... politicians, governments and people all failed each other, and HE had to make it better.

say.. what kind of history?
Quoting yonzabam:


In mountainous terrain, a slow moving tropical storm can be much more deadly than a fast moving major hurricane.



Looks like this storm somehow dropped even more rain than Washi, at least in that one location, because the shelter got destroyed by the inland flooding. This means water got much higher than it did in the previous one, at least in this isolated case. The topography there is pretty bad, much worse than I first thought. It's like a funnel for flood waters. There's also a hydro dam there on one of the rivers. I don't know what that has to do with anything, except that it alters natural drainage obviously.

They are in a bad spot there because if they go up the mountains they get into higher winds, but if they don't go at least a decent distance up and get away from the rivers they will be in the floods and land slides.

Unfortunately in this case, most of the casualties are the military relief team that was sent in, which is a Catch 22. In this case, doing nothing would have been better, but they couldn't have known that until it was too late.

Nobody chooses where they are born, and most people end up living most of their lives somewhere nearby.
It's nice to see your take on a WPac storm. Thanks Doc!
I think we're going to break the 1998 record high of 80f for Hammond.

We are already at the forecast 79f even since I posted that recently. Temps could easily rise another 2 or 3 degrees before max today.
Wublogger juslivn reported about the severe along the northern edge yesterday near Chicago. This morning, the SPC delineates a slight severe risk area along the GOM coast. Click image for details of 1130 cst convective outlook.


Present radar, may be a couple strong storms kickin' in eastcentral TX.
Galliano, Louisiana has broken it's previous record by 5f already. Previous was 2003.


Max Temperature 80 °F 61 °F 75 °F (2003)

I'm not sure how old this station is. If it's relatively new then I suppose the record is meaningless.
RTS

Five investigations (three major and two minor) were conducted by civil engineers and other experts, in an attempt to identify the underlying reasons for the failure of the federal flood protection system. All concur that the primary cause of the flooding was inadequate design and construction by the Corps of Engineers.

Source Government Accountability Office

In other words they built them too short and to weak for the design criteria as stated in the flood control act.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
nymore.....I am a history and military buff..... I admire general Honore a great deal.. I think if he had a better communication skills with the laymen he would be better received.... He just doesn't have the "click"...But he is a great man


With all due respect when it all goes to hell, I don't want warm and fuzzy I want this guy.

img src="">
Quoting indianrivguy:


He sure had to pick up a bag of worms... politicians, governments and people all failed each other, and HE had to make it better.

say.. what kind of history?
I love WWII history IRG... My father was in Patton's army during the war... A few weeks ago during the Lake Worth Fl Veterans Day Parade I had the honor of meeting one of the last surviving WWII heroes... General Albin Izryk....What a wonderful and polite man he is... He lives in West Palm Beach.... I met him and his wife. It gave me chills that I met one of the great WW2 heroes..
Thanks, Dr. Masters.
http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/katrina_federal_mo ney_for_louisiana_went_to_pork_not_levees/

And then there is this.

Link
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I love WWII history IRG... My father was in Patton's army during the war... A few weeks ago during the Lake Worth Fl Veterans Day Parade I had the honor of meeting one of the last surviving WWII heroes... General Albin Izryk....What a wonderful and polite man he is... He lives in West Palm Beach.... I met him and his wife. It gave me chills that I met one of the great WW2 heroes..
Good afternoon all. PBW, my dad served in the Navy all his life, joining during WWII. He passed away in 1986, but this year we just got a copy of a commendation letter he received from his commander stating his outstanding service during the campaign on Luzon and other areas of the Pacific while stationed on the Nehanta (sp?) Bay. I would not have been impressed when I was younger, but I certainly am now. It's a shame I never sat with my Dad and asked him about the wars he was in. The only time he told me anything was the day before he died. I am not sure if the things he said are still classified, so I won't repeat it. I guess as we get older we appreciate the work our enlisted men do for our nation.
Quoting yonzabam:


In mountainous terrain, a slow moving tropical storm can be much more deadly than a fast moving major hurricane.


Add on an enormous storm surge and well over 100 mph winds ontop of torrential rains,gotta expect major major impacts.
Palau State of Emergency Declared After Super Typhoon Bopha
Posted on December 4, 2012 by Oceania TV News

By Kassi Berg

On December 4, 2012, Palau President Johnson Toribiong invoked his Constitutional authority to declare a State of Emergency citing the “catastrophic destruction” following Super Typhoon Bopha. While no loss of lives or serious injury has yet been reported, the President explained that “the winds and storm surge” resulted in “scores of people … rendered homeless for the foreseeable future.” The nation’s capitol is still serving as a shelter for those without habitable homes. Infrastructure, such as power, water, and sewer service has also been disrupted for the foreseeable future. All of this threatens “Palau’s food supply” and raises “public health concerns.”

A State of Emergency permits the President to assume legislative powers for up to 10 days without the consent of the legislature. In that capacity, following his Declaration, the President appropriated $5 million dollars for immediate disaster relief. Early estimates approximate the damage for repair and rebuilding at $10 million dollars. The most significant typhoon destruction was sustained on the “east side” of Palau’s largest island, Babeldoab, as well as the outlying States of Anguar and Peleliu.

OTV crew went by helicopter today to Anguar and Peleliu to document the aftermath of Typhoon Bopha. To view photos and video please continue to check www.oceaniatv.net.

Earlier form Dec 3rd
Palau Coastal Village in Ruins After Typhoon Bopha
Thank you for the new blog Dr. Masters. My heart goes out to all those effected by Bopha
This is a fantastic video of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season. Some stray observations:

- Chris was definitely a hurricane for longer than was previously thought.
- It's fun to watch the Epac during the inactive month of July.
- You can appreciate the scale of Sandy a lot in this video, as well as Ernesto, Isaac, Leslie and Rafael.
- It looks like Debby also persisted for longer after her crossing over Florida.

Link

On a sidenote: Bopha was/is an incredible storm to me, and I hope that the damage wrought was minimal.
Quoting kwgirl:
Good afternoon all. PBW, my dad served in the Navy all his life, joining during WWII. He passed away in 1986, but this year we just got a copy of a commendation letter he received from his commander stating his outstanding service during the campaign on Luzon and other areas of the Pacific while stationed on the Nehanta (sp?) Bay. I would not have been impressed when I was younger, but I certainly am now. It's a shame I never sat with my Dad and asked him about the wars he was in. The only time he told me anything was the day before he died. I am not sure if the things he said are still classified, so I won't repeat it. I guess as we get older we appreciate the work our enlisted men do for our nation.
kwgirl.....It sounds exactly like my dad... My dad passed in 1991. He never spoke of his military past. I never learned until my uncle spoke of him a few years ago. He served in both campaigns. I wish I knew more but most of my older relatives are gone now...So much to ask ,but no one to ask.
I hear thundahhhh. Please rain.
Quoting bappit:
I hear thundahhhh.


I don't


Here is some footage and forecast for Pablo/Bopha

img src="">
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
17:30 PM RET December 4 2012
================================

The low level circulation center is located near 8.7S 85.6E at 1000 AM UTC, exposed East of the main
convective activity. A burst of convection is developing close to the center since 0800 AM UTC.
mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1001 hPa, maximum winds at 20-25 knots near the center, locally 30 knots far from the center northward in the monsoon flow and southward due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressure. The low level circulation center is moving southward at about 10 knots and it has accelerated during the past 6 hours.

Lower levels environmental conditions are favorable, system being well supplied on both faces, equatorward and poleward. Energetic oceanic content is favorable too. In the upper levels, the diffluent Easterly wind shear is still strong (30-40 knots according to CIMSS data), system being located north of an upper tropospheric ridge.

On and after tonight, system may track south-westward according to the available numerical weather prediction models. The easterly upper level wind shear is forecast to remain moderate to strong until Thursday, and should weaken sharply beyond. However, during the next 48 hours, system should deepen progressively with the lowering of the relative wind shear when the system will track westward. It should intensify more rapidly beyond Thursday.

No other suspect area over the basin.

For the next 24 hours, potential for the development of a tropical depression is good.
Quoting LostTomorrows:
This is a fantastic video of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season. Some stray observations: .....

Link


Thanks for posting. Very nice. And the running, for everlasting gag is, though sometimes out of sight: Nadine!
More bad news

Over 40 deaths in the town of New Bataan due to mudslide
Published on December 4, 2012 by robspeta in Breaking News

At least 44 casualties have been confirmed due to a mudslide, flash flood and crashing trees in the town of New Bataan in Compostela Valley as Bapho pushed over ahead. The mudslide was reported to have occured Tuesday morning as the typhoon slammed in to the area.

The flash flood also washed through a army patrol base killing several soldiers on the installation. Six soldiers remain missing.

Another 25 have been reported injured at this time, this new event that is now just circulating in the news puts the latest death toll from the storm near 80 and still climbing. Expect more information to begin flowing in throughout the day on Wednesday as communications begin to be restored in the area.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


I don't



Maybe you will.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
kwgirl.....It sounds exactly like my dad... My dad passed in 1991. He never spoke of his military past. I never learned until my uncle spoke of him a few years ago. He served in both campaigns. I wish I knew more but most of my older relatives are gone now...So much to ask ,but no one to ask.
You can try writing to the US Army asking for transcripts of his records, if they are still available. That might work.
Quoting bappit:

Maybe you will.



Hope so

Testing....................1.2.3. Post doesn't seems to be posting
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #73
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
3:00 AM JST December 5 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sulu Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (975 hPa) located at 9.8N 120.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 18 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 11.9N 117.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 12.8N 115.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 13.2N 113.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Looks like one of my posts never made it.......Dammit, I forgot what I said.LOL
Climate Models Project Increase in U.S. Wildfire Risk

WASHINGTON -- Scientists using NASA satellite data and climate models have projected drier conditions likely will cause increased fire activity across the United States in coming decades. Other findings about U.S. wildfires, including their amount of carbon emissions and how the length and strength of fire seasons are expected to change under future climate conditions, were also presented Tuesday at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco.

"Climate models project an increase in fire risk across the U.S. by 2050, based on a trend toward drier conditions that favor fire activity and an increase in the frequency of extreme events," Morton said.

The researchers calculated results for low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. In both cases, results suggest more fire seasons that are longer and stronger across all regions of the U.S. in the next 30-50 years. Specifically, high fire years like 2012 would likely occur two to four times per decade by mid-century, instead of once per decade under current climate conditions.

As the U.S. land area burned by fire each year has increased significantly in the past 25 years, so too have the emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions from wildfires in the western U.S. have more than doubled since the 1980s, according to Chris Williams of Clark University in Worcester, Mass.

The satellite-based view allowed Williams and his colleagues to quantify how much carbon has been released from fires in the U.S. West. The team used data on fire extent and severity derived from Landsat satellites to calculate how much biomass is burned and killed, and how quickly the associated carbon was released to the atmosphere. The team found carbon emissions from fires have grown from an average of 8 teragrams (8.8 million tons) per year from 1984 to 1995 to an average of 20 teragrams (22 million tons) per year from 1996 to 2008, increasing 2.4 times in the latter period.

From a fire and emissions management perspective, wildfires are not the entire U.S. fire story, according to research by Hsiao-Wen Lin of the University of California at Irvine. Satellite data show agricultural and prescribed fires are a significant factor and account for 70 percent of the total number of active fires in the continental U.S. Agricultural fires have increased 30 percent in the last decade.

For images and additional information on this research, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/climate -fire.html


Meanwhile, in northern Colorado (just three weeks before Christmas...):

Quoting kwgirl:
Good afternoon all. PBW, my dad served in the Navy all his life, joining during WWII. He passed away in 1986, but this year we just got a copy of a commendation letter he received from his commander stating his outstanding service during the campaign on Luzon and other areas of the Pacific while stationed on the Nehanta (sp?) Bay. I would not have been impressed when I was younger, but I certainly am now. It's a shame I never sat with my Dad and asked him about the wars he was in. The only time he told me anything was the day before he died. I am not sure if the things he said are still classified, so I won't repeat it. I guess as we get older we appreciate the work our enlisted men do for our nation.


My grandfather served in WW2 also. He was a radio/intelligence guy in Greenland and other places. However, he never did talk much about his time in the service. It as though many of that generation of veterans just did their service kept quiet and came back (the lucky ones at least.) All in all a posthumous “thank you for your service” to all those who have passed and ditto to the ones that we’re still honored to have with us today.
Quoting kwgirl:
You can try writing to the US Army asking for transcripts of his records, if they are still available. That might work.


Go Navy beat Army!

Much of that is online... Ancestry.com has a lot, it's where I got my gramps civil war, and another gramps ww1 stuff.

PBW, I have met the General before.. didn't get a chance to speak, other than to thank him for his service, but I came away the same as you. Awed some, liking a lot. A very nice man.

I like all history and will, given the opportunity read about it, any of it. Florida history in general, and specifically pioneer east Florida is a great passion. Part of my family homesteaded on Lake Worth, 1873, another is in the 1835 Volusia County census, and was at Sand Point to greet the arrival of Col. Titus and family 1866.
First trace of rain in over 6 weeks here in South Central Texas, we are dryer than we were in the later parts of 2010 into 2011 which was the dryest spell ever here. Cracks in the ground are pretty wide, looks like the end of Summer here.
Quoting MrMixon:
Climate Models Project Increase in U.S. Wildfire Risk

WASHINGTON -- Scientists using NASA satellite data and climate models have projected drier conditions likely will cause increased fire activity across the United States in coming decades. Other findings about U.S. wildfires, including their amount of carbon emissions and how the length and strength of fire seasons are expected to change under future climate conditions, were also presented Tuesday at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco.

"Climate models project an increase in fire risk across the U.S. by 2050, based on a trend toward drier conditions that favor fire activity and an increase in the frequency of extreme events," Morton said.

The researchers calculated results for low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. In both cases, results suggest more fire seasons that are longer and stronger across all regions of the U.S. in the next 30-50 years. Specifically, high fire years like 2012 would likely occur two to four times per decade by mid-century, instead of once per decade under current climate conditions.

As the U.S. land area burned by fire each year has increased significantly in the past 25 years, so too have the emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions from wildfires in the western U.S. have more than doubled since the 1980s, according to Chris Williams of Clark University in Worcester, Mass.

The satellite-based view allowed Williams and his colleagues to quantify how much carbon has been released from fires in the U.S. West. The team used data on fire extent and severity derived from Landsat satellites to calculate how much biomass is burned and killed, and how quickly the associated carbon was released to the atmosphere. The team found carbon emissions from fires have grown from an average of 8 teragrams (8.8 million tons) per year from 1984 to 1995 to an average of 20 teragrams (22 million tons) per year from 1996 to 2008, increasing 2.4 times in the latter period.

From a fire and emissions management perspective, wildfires are not the entire U.S. fire story, according to research by Hsiao-Wen Lin of the University of California at Irvine. Satellite data show agricultural and prescribed fires are a significant factor and account for 70 percent of the total number of active fires in the continental U.S. Agricultural fires have increased 30 percent in the last decade.

For images and additional information on this research, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/climate -fire.html


Meanwhile, in northern Colorado (just three weeks before Christmas...):




"Agricultural fires" are from sugar cane, and possibly some beets (I forget).

Look it up, I don't feel like typing.
Quoting indianrivguy:


Go Navy beat Army!

Much of that is online... Ancestry.com has a lot, it's where I got my gramps civil war, and another gramps ww1 stuff.

PBW, I have met the General before.. didn't get a chance to speak, other than to thank him for his service, but I came away the same as you. Awed some, liking a lot. A very nice man.

I like all history and will, given the opportunity read about it, any of it. Florida history in general, and specifically pioneer east Florida is a great passion. Part of my family homesteaded on Lake Worth, 1873, another is in the 1835 Volusia County census, and was at Sand Point to greet the arrival of Col. Titus and family 1866.
IRG.... I probably have seen the movie "Patton" 10 times. General Albin Izryk has written a few books where he stated that General Patton was the best commander ever to lead men into war. When I flip channels and I happen to see Patton is on I cannot help myself to stop at watch it again.
...THE 500MB FLOW INDICATES A POTENTIAL
SHIFT IN PATTERN HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED. OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS
WE HAVE SEEN BLOCKING OVER THE POLE...BUT IT IS FINALLY PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AND ALLOW A STRONG DOME OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CANADA (MORE OF A TYPICAL EARLY
WINTERTIME LOOK TO THE HEMISPHERIC FLOW). THIS COULD PUT SOME OF THAT
ENERGY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO USE...SWINGING IT DOWN THE SPINE OF
THE ROCKIES AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS AS IT SHIFTS
TOWARD TEXAS.
THIS IS ALL OCCURRING VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND

THEREFORE DOES NOT LEND ITSELF TO STRONG CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST SOLNS
ATTM...BUT IT BEARS CLOSE WATCHING FOR MS/TN VALLEY WEATHER AT THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
Quoting nymore:
RTS

Five investigations (three major and two minor) were conducted by civil engineers and other experts, in an attempt to identify the underlying reasons for the failure of the federal flood protection system. All concur that the primary cause of the flooding was inadequate design and construction by the Corps of Engineers.

Source Government Accountability Office

In other words they built them too short and to weak for the design criteria as stated in the flood control act.



When you develop an "adequate design" for a 14ft high wall to stop an 18ft to 24ft high surge, let me know. You will have re-written all math and physics texts along the way.

The design criteria was for a category 3 storm surge on the SS Hurricane scale chart. Katrina's surge was two categories higher than that, and would have been 3 or 4 categories higher than that in some locations, if more categories had existed.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
First trace of rain in over 6 weeks here in South Central Texas, we are dryer than we were in the later parts of 2010 into 2011 which was the dryest spell ever here. Cracks in the ground are pretty wide, looks like the end of Summer here.


I'm afraid Central TX is becoming Mexico desert land, and massive implications are coming for TX
Bucketing rain today (and yesterday) in my part of southern Ontario. It could be worse. At least I don't have to have it shovelled.

For those of you in sustained droughts, I wish I could blow a few days of this your way. I'd like to see some sunshine.
I believe our water wars are going to begin in the lower 48, at this rate

Quoting RitaEvac:
I believe our water wars are going to begin in the lower 48, at this rate


I think I have said before that, if there is ever a war between Canada and the U.S.A., it will be over water rights.
Quoting Bielle:


I think I have said before that, if there is ever a war between Canada and the U.S.A., it will be over water rights.

Canada has a military?
With this kind of atmospheric feedback with dry soil content, summer of 2013 could be deadly, with extreme temperature heat, and if things were to hold, expect a total loss and destruction of the food supply in the breadbasket of this country.

Quoting Bielle:


I think I have said before that, if there is ever a war between Canada and the U.S.A., it will be over water rights.
EH!
If there is a time to panic....now is the time....because if we don't get widespread rains over these areas, it'll be beyond panicking when reality sets in next summer.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Canada has a military?

The U.S. tried to invade Canada back in 1812. Marked as a great victory in Canadian history.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Canada has a military?


I appreciate the joke. We certainly don't have one to take on the U.S.A. head to head (or even arms to arms). And I am not saying Canada would "win", whatever that may mean. However, as a good friend (francophone, Quebecois) said at the time of last referendum on Quebec sovereignty, it won't be about armies; it will be about terrorism. That is really frightening, but so is widespread drought. Just look at the map.
Quoting bappit:

The U.S. tried to invade Canada back in 1812. Marked as a great victory in Canadian history.


1812 is a long time ago. I don't remember it being portrayed as a "great victory" in my history books, just that the Americans were pushed back by the British forces.
Quoting RitaEvac:
If there is a time to panic....now is the time....because if we don't get widespread rains over these areas, it'll be beyond panicking when reality sets in next summer.




When great leaders in our country's past were faced with such fear and uncertainty--the Cold War being one of them--JFK did not panic. JFK had resolve.

The Cold War was a far greater threat to our livelihood than this.

Instead of instigating and spreading fear, remember those great leaders of the past. JFK being one of them.

At the rate you're going, you best better have your final preparations made for the end of the world later this month....





The National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Reports for Hurricane Michael and Tropical Storm Oscar are out.

Michael

Duration: 3-11 September
Max. winds: 100 knots (115 mph) (09/06/2012 12z)
Min. pressure: 964 millibars (09/06/2012 12z)
Damage: N/A
Fatalities: 0

Oscar

Duration: 3-5 October
Max. winds: 45 knots (50 mph) (10/05/2012 06z)
Min. pressure: 994 millibars (10/05/2012 06z)
Damage: N/A
Fatalities: 0
Quoting Bielle:


1812 is a long time ago. I don't remember it being portrayed as a "great victory" in my history books, just that the Americans were pushed back by the British forces.

From Wikipedia at least:

"Canada also emerged from the war with a heightened sense of national feeling and solidarity, having repelled multiple American invasions. Battles such as the Battle of Queenston Heights and the Battle of Crysler's Farm became iconic for English-speaking Canadians. In Canada, especially Ontario, memory of the war retains national significance, as the invasions were largely perceived by Canadians as an annexation attempt by the United States, seeking to expand its territory. In Canada, numerous ceremonies are scheduled in 2012 to commemorate a Canadian victory."

Not sure what the article is referencing regards 2012 commemorations.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


When great leaders in our country's past were faced with such fear and uncertainty--the Cold War being one of them--JFK did not panic. JFK had resolve.

The Cold War was a far greater threat to our livelihood than this.

Instead of instigating and spreading fear, remember those great leaders of the past. JFK being one of them.

At the rate you're are going, you best better have your final preparations made for the end of the world later this month....







lol, The end?....it's only just beginning, we aint going out with a bang, it's gonna be a long drawn out process....
75. Kumo
Quoting RitaEvac:
If there is a time to panic....now is the time....because if we don't get widespread rains over these areas, it'll be beyond panicking when reality sets in next summer.


Something tells me that we won't, I've got a gut feeling that the drought is going to continue well into next Summer. I am not looking forward to a $4 loaf of bread or $6 for lb. of ground beef. With taxes going up too, it looks like we'll be eating less Chick-fil-A and doing more cooking at home.
Quoting RitaEvac:
I believe our water wars are going to begin in the lower 48, at this rate


First I can offer you my deepest sympathy for your plight, as I know it only too well in Europe but on a much more localised scale, we just went about 2 years with almost no rain in my area but its changed a lot these last few weeks with big storms.
What I am really concerned about in the case of the Mid Western states is that you are going to have to do something about this. It isnt a case of wait about and it might rain. There are millions of people at stake there and they will have major problems and soon.
First you get the drought, with the fires and dust. Then it gets bad, no water for irrigation and failing local economies, thoughts of migration but to where?
This has to be a national issue of paramount importance which should be addressed with the utmost urgency NOW!
Quoting RitaEvac:


lol, The end?....it's only just beginning, we aint going out with a bang, it's gonna be a long drawn out process....

Not according to Queztaquotle (or whoever it was that scribed the Calendar)

It just ends................ POOF !
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Reports for Hurricane Michael and Tropical Storm Oscar are out.

Michael

Duration: 3-11 September
Max. winds: 100 knots (115 mph) (09/06/2012 12z)
Min. pressure: 964 millibars (09/06/2012 12z)
Damage: N/A
Fatalities: 0

Oscar

Duration: 3-5 October
Max. winds: 45 knots (50 mph) (10/05/2012 06z)
Min. pressure: 994 millibars (10/05/2012 06z)
Damage: N/A
Fatalities: 0

Here's both of them at peak intensity...

Michael:



Oscar:

Quoting RitaEvac:
With this kind of atmospheric feedback with dry soil content, summer of 2013 could be deadly, with extreme temperature heat, and if things were to hold, expect a total loss and destruction of the food supply in the breadbasket of this country.



I think you could be in a new climate regime in the US, and changed jet stream activity could be part of the problem.

Maybe you need 2013 to be an ENSO year, or does that make things worse? Suppose it depends on whether it's a La Nina or an El Nino. There's been very little ENSO activity for about 7 years, 2010 being the excepton.

I'd expect food riots in the developing world next year. There have been bad harvests in other countries, too.

You won't get a 'total loss and destruction of the food supply' in the US. Water extracted from the Ogallala aquifer irrigates much of the crop land in the drought affected area. But I assume farmers have to pay for that, so grain will be more expensive.
Quoting RitaEvac:
With this kind of atmospheric feedback with dry soil content, summer of 2013 could be deadly, with extreme temperature heat, and if things were to hold, expect a total loss and destruction of the food supply in the breadbasket of this country.



When stomachs get to growling folks will be likely to listen better when someone tries to tell them this is the future unless we back away from fossil fuels.

We might actually get something done on that very important issue.
Canada has Les Stroud.

U.S. has 40% obese people who don't actually know where we get vegetables or beef.
Quoting PlazaRed:

First I can offer you my deepest sympathy for your plight, as I know it only too well in Europe but on a much more localised scale, we just went about 2 years with almost no rain in my area but its changed a lot these last few weeks with big storms.
What I am really concerned about in the case of the Mid Western states is that you are going to have to do something about this. It isnt a case of wait about and it might rain. There are millions of people at stake there and they will have major problems and soon.
First you get the drought, with the fires and dust. Then it gets bad, no water for irrigation and failing local economies, thoughts of migration but to where?
This has to be a national issue of paramount importance which should be addressed with the utmost urgency NOW!


Yep, but in this country, it's playing on Facebook, how to make the next million dollar idea, how to get rich and make more profits, and what's the latest fashion, what's my stock portfolio look like, and where we going to party this weekend, and all about me, me me, me me. Just sit back and watch the whole thing implode and fall in on itself, matter of time.
Quoting percylives:


When stomachs get to growling folks will be likely to listen better when someone tries to tell them this is the future unless we back away from fossil fuels.
br>We might actually get something done on that very important issue.

Any ideas ?
Quoting pottery:

Not according to Queztaquotle (or whoever it was that scribed the Calendar)

It just ends................ POOF !


POOF...more like what this global economy is going to do, he just misjudged on that one
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Here's both of them at peak intensity...

Michael:
Oscar:


Got some fonky dates on Michael. 11/06/2012 ?
Quoting Kumo:


Something tells me that we won't, I've got a gut feeling that the drought is going to continue well into next Summer. I am not looking forward to a $4 loaf of bread or $6 for lb. of ground beef. With taxes going up too, it looks like we'll be eating less Chick-fil-A and doing more cooking at home.


LOL ...I've already given up the Chick-fil-A and the ground beef ...guess I'l start making my own bread ...probably be better for me anyway ...should probably buy the flour now and freeze it though as that will be going up too.

Have to agree with you though ...things will be going up in price
This lack of snow is pissing me off.

I WANT MY BLIZZARD! I WANT IT I WANT IT! And soon too!
24. hydrus

The possibility of snow is now in the Milwaukee forecast discussion for next week, Monday. Let's hope the ECMWF model is the winner!

SOUTHWEST 500MB FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION LIKE THE GFS. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A STRENGTHENING LOW FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY
NIGHT NORTHEAST TO FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS SUNDAY...THEN NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. IT THEN BRINGS ANOTHER STRONGER LOW FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY...THEN TO FAR NORTHWEST
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACCOMPANIES THE STRONG LOW. THIS SYSTEM...IF IT WORKS OUT...WOULD
GIVE THE AREA A GOOD SHOT AT ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Who wants to eat food from those homophobic a**holes anyway?

I have a punching bag if you want to borrow it.
Quoting lilElla:
24. hydrus

The possibility of snow is now in the Milwaukee forecast discussion for next week, Monday. Let's hope the ECMWF model is the winner!

SOUTHWEST 500MB FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION LIKE THE GFS. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A STRENGTHENING LOW FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY
NIGHT NORTHEAST TO FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS SUNDAY...THEN NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. IT THEN BRINGS ANOTHER STRONGER LOW FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY...THEN TO FAR NORTHWEST
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACCOMPANIES THE STRONG LOW. THIS SYSTEM...IF IT WORKS OUT...WOULD
GIVE THE AREA A GOOD SHOT AT ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND.


How does it look for Wausau?
Quoting bappit:

Got some fonky dates on Michael. 11/06/2012 ?

LOL. I fixed it.
Quoting RitaEvac:


POOF...more like what this global economy is going to do, he just misjudged on that one

Yeah, I think so too.
But we have to forgive him.
He had no internet.

We are much more highly evolved and aware.
But we still have not got it sorted.
I wonder why that is, sometimes.
Quoting bappit:

From Wikipedia at least:

"Canada also emerged from the war with a heightened sense of national feeling and solidarity, having repelled multiple American invasions. Battles such as the Battle of Queenston Heights and the Battle of Crysler's Farm became iconic for English-speaking Canadians. In Canada, especially Ontario, memory of the war retains national significance, as the invasions were largely perceived by Canadians as an annexation attempt by the United States, seeking to expand its territory. In Canada, numerous ceremonies are scheduled in 2012 to commemorate a Canadian victory."

Not sure what the article is referencing regards 2012 commemorations.


Pushed back American aggression in 1812....its 2012. Humm. Maybe some kind of anniversary? LOL 200th anniversary I believe
Quoting pottery:

Any ideas ?

Use less fossil fuel, make less cement, less deforestation. Those are the big three CO2 contributors. But it will be a tough sell. People won't see any benefit from doing it for quite a while since CO2 has a fairly long life time in the atmosphere--except the benefit from imagining how much worse things could be.

People won't change on their own. History with coal and killer smogs in the US and UK show that. There will have to be legislation. That won't happen without an enlightened electorate. I'm pessimistic about that.

Then there is the problem of China which has quickly passed the US as the largest CO2 producing country--even though the per capita production is less. All of the denial propaganda helps China continue on their current course.
Quoting pottery:

Any ideas ?


Since you asked, yes I do.

As outlined on the percylives WU blog, I think a carbon tax/dividend is the fairest way to approach and possibly solve this massive problem. It provides a monetary reward to lowering significantly our individual fossil fuel footprints and gets the entire population involved. I'm looking for feedback as I want to go to DC with it as soon as the new Congress is seated. Right now it's aimed primarily at the US because we seem to be the laggards. It's not a new idea but it's the best one I could find.
Quoting Kumo:


You do realize that they employ many different kinds of people of all ethnic backgrounds and sexual orientations, right? Their company in fact does not discriminate in hiring practices.

Slamming a company that produces a great product and has a positive impact on the local economy simply for the religious opinion of the owner, shows what a bigot you are.


Oh, so I am the bigot here?
Quoting bappit:

The U.S. tried to invade Canada back in 1812. Marked as a great victory in Canadian history.


Didn't any of you folks see Canadian Bacon? We one that one.
USDA FAQ

here

How important is agricultural trade to the U.S. economy?
The United States is now the world’s largest agricultural exporter. The value of agricultural exports equals nearly one-fourth of farm cash receipts, about twice the level of the overall U.S. economy, and 1 out of 3 acres are planted for export.


and

How much of its agricultural products does the United States export?
American farmers export 45 percent of their wheat, 34 percent of their soybeans, 71 percent of their almonds, and more than 60 percent of their sunflower oil.


Apparently, we feed or else supplement everyone else's diets while we eat all the wrong things.

Since most of us in the U.S. eat too much currently, we could probably do with less than half of our present production (disregarding the financial chaos and looking only objectively at the ability to feed ourselves,) but other parts of the world would be in serious trouble if we could not export at rates similar to above.

People in certain other parts of the world will either starve to death, or start a war over food, which is horrible to contemplate because it might actually be the first "real" food war in history.
Before we jump to conclusions on food lets look at the harvest data for the U S

Sorghum harvest up nearly 20% from last year

Corn harvest down 13% from last year

Soybeans down 10% from last year

Wheat harvest up 13% from last year

Cotton up 12% from last year

Source usda
Quoting FunnelVortex:


How does it look for Wausau?


Green Bay NWS is talking about it, too. :)
SPC convective outlook was no joke today! Raining buckets in South Houston... Wish I could throw all this a little bit north, droughts make me sad.
104. txjac
Quoting bappit:

Use less fossil fuel, make less cement, less deforestation. Those are the big three CO2 contributors. But it will be a tough sell. People won't see any benefit from doing it for quite a while since CO2 has a fairly long life time in the atmosphere--except the benefit from imagining how much worse things could be.

People won't change on their own. History with coal and killer smogs in the US and UK show that. There will have to be legislation. That won't happen without an enlightened electorate. I'm pessimistic about that.

Then there is the problem of China which has quickly passed the US as the largest CO2 producing country--even though the per capita production is less. All of the denial propaganda helps China continue on their current course.


I would love to see more trees and less concrete! In Houston it seems like we continually through up strip malls on every available piece of land ...they are ugly. Most of them stay empty too,
Some nice small parks would be appreciated.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Who wants to eat food from those homophobic a**holes anyway?



I do....some GOOOOD chicken sandwiches.....and the boycott was stupid...regardless of what the guy said.

The company doesnt violate any laws in hiring or serving, nor do they show any bias.
Quoting lilElla:


Green Bay NWS is talking about it, too. :)


I hope it becomes a good winter storm.

We need snow cover or else we are in trouble again next year.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Yep, but in this country, it's playing on Facebook, how to make the next million dollar idea, how to get rich and make more profits, and what's the latest fashion, what's my stock portfolio look like, and where we going to party this weekend, and all about me, me me, me me. Just sit back and watch the whole thing implode and fall in on itself, matter of time.

I sincerely appreciate what you are saying and predicting.
The results of this drought, or it might turn into a climate change if it goes on for a very long time are that reality will eventually take precedence over materialism, when people start dying things will happen.
Last week Skyepony posted a picture of a massive pipeline being constructed, probably to do with oil transport. What you have to create is a grid type of water distribution similar to electricity distribution. At least this way water will get delivered. Maybe not enough for irrigation but enough for survival.
Quoting nymore:
Before we jump to conclusions on food lets look at the harvest data for the U S

Sorghum harvest up nearly 20% from last year

Corn harvest down 13% from last year

Soybeans down 10% from last year

Wheat harvest up 13% from last year

Cotton up 12% from last year

Source usda


Mixed bag.

They don't actually report "good news" on television, so never realize that side of things.

Still, if the rivers get too low it won't matter what we produce, much of it won't make it to port.
Quoting PlazaRed:

I sincerely appreciate what you are saying and predicting.
The results of this drought, or it might turn into a climate change if it goes on for a very long time are that reality will eventually take precedence over materialism, when people start dying things will happen.
Last week Skyepony posted a picture of a massive pipeline being constructed, probably to do with oil transport. What you have to create is a grid type of water distribution similar to electricity distribution. At least this way water will get delivered. Maybe not enough for irrigation but enough for survival.


That would require pumping. Water's heavy, and it takes a lot of energy to pump it. That would make it very expensive and the economics probably wouldn't stack up.
Quoting PlazaRed:

I sincerely appreciate what you are saying and predicting.
The results of this drought, or it might turn into a climate change if it goes on for a very long time are that reality will eventually take precedence over materialism, when people start dying things will happen.
Last week Skyepony posted a picture of a massive pipeline being constructed, probably to do with oil transport. What you have to create is a grid type of water distribution similar to electricity distribution. At least this way water will get delivered. Maybe not enough for irrigation but enough for survival.


Here in New Mexico, we don't know if it is climate change or the multiseasonal droughts that have been recurring cyclically for as long as there have been people here. Nevertheless, we are in a drought and now expect wild fires every spring and summer.
111. yoboi
Quoting RitaEvac:


lol, The end?....it's only just beginning, we aint going out with a bang, it's gonna be a long drawn out process....


atleast for 4 more yrs...
Quoting bappit:

Use less fossil fuel, make less cement, less deforestation. Those are the big three CO2 contributors. But it will be a tough sell. People won't see any benefit from doing it for quite a while since CO2 has a fairly long life time in the atmosphere--except the benefit from imagining how much worse things could be.

People won't change on their own. History with coal and killer smogs in the US and UK show that. There will have to be legislation. That won't happen without an enlightened electorate. I'm pessimistic about that.

Then there is the problem of China which has quickly passed the US as the largest CO2 producing country--even though the per capita production is less. All of the denial propaganda helps China continue on their current course.

Agreed. Thanks.
Going to be Problems though.

On another tack....
The US is about to become independent of imported fuels to a large extent.
Thanks to LNG supplies from TarSands.
This will make fuel plenty cheaper for domestic use (especially manufacture/industry) and people are saying that in 20-30 years the manufacturing base of the US will once again be #1 Globally.

It will be cheaper to make goods in the US for the US market & export, than the Chinese/Indian/Korean/etc factories.

Successive US governments have been accused of "exporting" manufacture/jobs/technology overseas.
Government doesnt do that. The buying public does that by demanding cheap consumables.

Hopefully, the weather/climate allows the US to remain virtually independent in food.
If it does not, the US is back to square one, exchanging dependence on oil for dependence on food.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
Quoting PlazaRed:

I sincerely appreciate what you are saying and predicting.
The results of this drought, or it might turn into a climate change if it goes on for a very long time are that reality will eventually take precedence over materialism, when people start dying things will happen.
Last week Skyepony posted a picture of a massive pipeline being constructed, probably to do with oil transport. What you have to create is a grid type of water distribution similar to electricity distribution. At least this way water will get delivered. Maybe not enough for irrigation but enough for survival.


We're bankrupt, never will happen. Anything like that will add to deficit, that's now the mindset now as well, we can't afford more debt. We're a few major natural disasters from imploding, that's how close we are. It's crazy to wrap your head around it, but it's the truth.
Quoting yonzabam:


That would require pumping. Water's heavy, and it takes a lot of energy to pump it. That would make it very expensive and the economics probably wouldn't stack up.


The Romans were able to do it without a single pump.
Quoting RitaEvac:


I'm afraid Central TX is becoming Mexico desert land, and massive implications are coming for TX
i agree
Quoting RTSplayer:
Canada has Les Stroud.

U.S. has 40% obese people who don't actually know where we get vegetables or beef.


Just in case you didn't know (as I did not) about Les Stroud, here he is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Les_Stroud

I am quite sure there are American equivalents, many of them, even if they don't make videos, or get their friends to chop their wood.

If 40% of Americans are obese, I don't know how that is connected to them not knowing where vegetables and beef come from. Are you conflating two separate ideas here?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


The Romans were able to do it without a single pump.


Rome's a bit smaller than the US.
I think that we all know that in the near future there is probably a 1% chance that Canada and the USA will go to war...

2nd of all... 1812 was a british victory bcause of british forces

Come on people Canada and the USA are allies and allies don't fight each other.... (this was for the last pages argument :P) ANYWAY...

The weather is great here in SE PA. It is in the mid 60's which hasnt happened since early October so its quite nice to have another taste of early fall!
Quoting pottery:

Agreed. Thanks.
Going to be Problems though.

On another tack....
The US is about to become independent of imported fuels to a large extent.
Thanks to LNG supplies from TarSands.
This will make fuel plenty cheaper for domestic use (especially manufacture/industry) and people are saying that in 20-30 years the manufacturing base of the US will once again be #1 Globally.

It will be cheaper to make goods in the US for the US market & export, than the Chinese/Indian/Korean/etc factories.

Successive US governments have been accused of "exporting" manufacture/jobs/technology overseas.
Government doesnt do that. The buying public does that by demanding cheap consumables.

Hopefully, the weather/climate allows the US to remain virtually independent in food.
If it does not, the US is back to square one, exchanging dependence on oil for dependence on food.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

I wonder how vulnerable China is to climate change. The U.S. always has had the Great Plains problem. It was labeled on maps as the Great American Desert before it was settled.

"The term Great American Desert was used in the 19th century to describe the western part of the Great Plains east of the Rocky Mountains in North America to about the 100th meridian."
Quoting yonzabam:


That would require pumping. Water's heavy, and it takes a lot of energy to pump it. That would make it very expensive and the economics probably wouldn't stack up.


LOL?

Economics, he says.

Paper money is meaningless if people are starving or dying of thirst.

Which is more important? Your $200 iPhone (which costs you a minimum of $67 per month,) or the water needed to grow a crop or a livestock animal for food?
Quoting bappit:

I wonder how vulnerable China is to climate change. The U.S. always has had the Great Plains problem. It was labeled on maps as the Great American Desert before it was settled.


As vulnerable as everywhere else, I should think.
But it's pretty well accepted that some areas would become wetter and others drier. It HAS to rain somewhere.
I'm not sure how it all pans out of course.
Quoting yonzabam:


That would require pumping. Water's heavy, and it takes a lot of energy to pump it. That would make it very expensive and the economics probably wouldn't stack up.

When you consider expense in the matter of millions of human lives and a large section of the national agricultural economy then the foundations of society must be in question.
If nothing is done or even planed to be done then the results probably will be catastrophic!
How many of us who are not directly affected are concerned?
Some countries have canals hundreds of miles long to bring water, you have built roads,railways and pipelines in the US for many years, its now time to build a national water grid and if necessary a power station to drive the pumps.
At the end of the day, the alternative does not bear thinking about.
Quoting yonzabam:


Rome's a bit smaller than the US.


1/3rd the size, same concept would still work
Quoting PlazaRed:

When you consider expense in the matter of millions of human lives and a large section of the national agricultural economy then the foundations of society must be in question.
If nothing is done or even planed to be done then the results probably will be catastrophic!
How many of us who are not directly affected are concerned?
Some countries have canals hundreds of miles long to bring water, you have built roads,railways and pipelines in the US for many years, its now time to build a national water grid and if necessary a power station to drive the pumps.
At the end of the day, the alternative does not bear thinking about.

Good post.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


1/3rd the size, same concept would still work

That would be Italy.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


The Romans were able to do it without a single pump.


The Romans did not redistribute massive floodwaters with aqueducts. They used them to bring fountains and running water to urban dwellings and then only where gravity provided favorable conditions to do it.

There's a big scale difference between making a cute fountain in your town square and moving hundreds of millions of acre-feet of water up and over a hydrologic divide.

I've done some back-of-the-envelope calculations using stated costs of existing pipeline systems compared to volumetric estimates for floods/droughts. The numbers aren't even close. The Treasury couldn't print money fast enough to create a nationwide (or even regional) drought/flood relief network.
Quoting pottery:

That would be Italy.


Wait, what? haha
Quoting MrMixon:


The Romans did not redistribute massive floodwaters with aqueducts. They used them to bring fountains and running water to urban dwellings and then only where gravity provided favorable conditions to do it.

There's a big scale difference between making a cute fountain in your town square and moving hundreds of millions of acre-feet of water up and over a hydrologic divide.

I've done some back-of-the-envelope calculations using stated costs of existing pipeline systems compared to volumetric estimates for floods/droughts. The numbers aren't even close. The Treasury couldn't print money fast enough to create a nationwide (or even regional) drought/flood relief network.


I'm not advocating this, but couldn't you just build larger aqueducts if you needed more water?
Quoting RTSplayer:



"Agricultural fires" are from sugar cane, and possibly some beets (I forget).

Look it up, I don't feel like typing.


In the U.S. West fields of all crop types (wheat, corn, barley, etc) are burned as a weed management strategy.
Quoting yonzabam:


Rome's a bit smaller than the US.


Actually the Roman Empire did not confine it's efforts to just the city of Rome..
Quoting MrMixon:


The Romans did not redistribute massive floodwaters with aqueducts. They used them to bring fountains and running water to urban dwellings and then only where gravity provided favorable conditions to do it.

There's a big scale difference between making a cute fountain in your town square and moving hundreds of millions of acre-feet of water up and over a hydrologic divide.

I've done some back-of-the-envelope calculations using stated costs of existing pipeline systems compared to volumetric estimates for floods/droughts. The numbers aren't even close. The Treasury couldn't print money fast enough to create a nationwide (or even regional) drought/flood relief network.

The difference of course, is the price of the commodity.
If water was priced at US$100.00/bbl (like oil) it would be feasible/profitable/cost effective to move it around.

That's not going to happen of course.
Or will it ?
Quoting PlazaRed:

When you consider expense in the matter of millions of human lives and a large section of the national agricultural economy then the foundations of society must be in question.
If nothing is done or even planed to be done then the results probably will be catastrophic!
How many of us who are not directly affected are concerned?
Some countries have canals hundreds of miles long to bring water, you have built roads,railways and pipelines in the US for many years, its now time to build a national water grid and if necessary a power station to drive the pumps.
At the end of the day, the alternative does not bear thinking about.


A national water grid is a fantasy. Water isn't electricity. If the cost of growing a ton of grain with expensive pumped water exceeds the cost of importng the same ton from Russia, then you'll be buying Russian grain.

This is an unsatisfatory situation, because it's not good to be dependent on others for food, oil, or whatever. But, it's economics, and you can't buck the market. Do you really think US bread makers are going to pay more for home grown wheat, rather than buy cheaper, imported wheat?

Quoting RitaEvac:


We're bankrupt, never will happen. Anything like that will add to deficit, that's now the mindset now as well, we can't afford more debt. We're a few major natural disasters from imploding, that's how close we are. It's crazy to wrap your head around it, but it's the truth.

Leaving things on a trifle negative note, I'm going to cook supper and think about how to inject a few positive thoughts into the Mid West drought problem.
There was no comment on the European 9pm news about the cyclone, which I find very disturbing, everybody over here is moaning about debt and inflation. 5 million out of work now in Spain with a population of 40 million more or less. that's 26% of the active workforce.
Quoting pottery:

The difference of course, is the price of the commodity.
If water was priced at US$100.00/bbl (like oil) it would be feasible/profitable/cost effective to move it around.

That's not going to happen of course.
Or will it ?


Either the crop won't grow or by your water idea If I bought enough to grow my crops you could not afford them anyway.

So what is the difference?
Quoting yonzabam:


A national water grid is a fantasy. Water isn't electricity. If the cost of growing a ton of grain with expensive pumped water exceeds the cost of importng the same ton from Russia, then you'll be buying Russian grain.

This is an unsatisfatory situation, because it's not good to be dependent on others for food, oil, or whatever. But, it's economics, and you can't buck the market. Do you really think US bread makers are going to pay more for home grown wheat, rather than buy cheaper, improrted wheat?


It's dependent on the consumer, again.
If the consumer agrees to pay more for home-grown bread, then that's it.

Not happening, of course.
Quoting Bielle:


Just in case you didn't know (as I did not) about Les Stroud, here he is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Les_Stroud

I am quite sure there are American equivalents, many of them, even if they don't make videos, or get their friends to chop their wood.

If 40% of Americans are obese, I don't know how that is connected to them not knowing where vegetables and beef come from. Are you conflating two separate ideas here?


Ok, so 35%, beg pardon, I guestimated.

Obesity in the U.S.

Obesity in the United States has been increasingly cited as a major health issue in recent decades. While many industrialized countries have experienced similar increases, obesity rates in the United States are among the highest in the world.[3] Of all countries, the United States has the highest rate of obesity. From 13% obesity in 1962, estimates have steadily increased, reaching 19.4% in 1997, 24.5% in 2004[4] 26.6% in 2007,[5] and 33.8% (adults) and 17% (children) in 2008.[6][7] In 2010, the CDC reported higher numbers once more, counting 35.7% of American adults as obese, and 17% of American children
Quoting yonzabam:


A national water grid is a fantasy. Water isn't electricity. If the cost of growing a ton of grain with expensive pumped water exceeds the cost of importng the same ton from Russia, then you'll be buying Russian grain.

This is an unsatisfatory situation, because it's not good to be dependent on others for food, oil, or whatever. But, it's economics, and you can't buck the market. Do you really think US bread makers are going to pay more for home grown wheat, rather than buy cheaper, imported wheat?



Sure we would, just the way we all buy home manufactured goods rather than the cheaper imports.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I'm not advocating this, but couldn't you just build larger aqueducts if you needed more water?


Yes you could. But the size of the pipes/aqueducts you need to relieve regional floods/droughts are huge - MUCH larger than our current systems. And because we don't know where floods/droughts will occur, we'd need a network of tens of thousands of these massive pipeline/pump systems to cover every watershed. In other words, you'd need pipelines connecting every one of these little units:




And you'd need huge pumping stations to move water up and over the divides. And even in flood years many of these huge pipelines and pump stations would sit unused because they weren't in the right spot.

Never mind the NIMBY problem you'd face... who wants one of these running through their back yard?



And then there are the environmental impacts. Agricultural land along our river corridors is fertile in large part thanks to regular flooding (think deposition of nutrients and fresh topsoil). Riparian zones, estuary systems, etc. have all evolved to depend upon occasional flooding. How do we maintain these ecological systems if we deprive them of the floods they've gotten so used to?
Quoting nymore:


Either the crop won't grow or by your water idea If I bought enough to grow my crops you could not afford them anyway.

So what is the difference?

Exactly. No difference.

Prepare for the worst. Hope for the best.
I am not overly optimistic.
Quoting Bielle:


Sure we would, just the way we all buy home manufactured goods rather than the cheaper imports.

LOL
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
i agree
In the Past 3 years we will get some rain but then we have periods of 2 to 4 months with little to no rain, that is why Lake Travis is not gaining water and is at its lowest levels since World War II.
Quoting MrMixon:


Yes you could. But the size of the pipes/aqueducts you need to relieve regional floods/droughts are huge. And because we don't know where floods/droughts will occur, we'd need the network to cover every watershed. In other words, you'd need pipelines connecting every one of these little units:




And you'd need huge pumping stations to move water up and over the divides. And even in flood years many of these huge pipelines and pump stations would sit unused because they weren't in the right spot.

Never mind the NIMBY problem you'd face... who wants one of these running through their back yard?



And then there are the environmental impacts. Agricultural land along our river corridors is fertile in large part thanks to regular flooding (think deposition of nutrients and fresh topsoil). Riparian zones, estuary systems, etc. have all evolved to depend upon occasional flooding. How do we maintain these ecological systems if we deprive them of the floods they've gotten so used to?

It would be cheaper to annex Canada, actually. And Russia.

:):))
Land area of the contiguous United States is 2,959,064 square miles (7,663,941 km2)
Land area of the Roman empire:- 2,750,000 km²

Roughly a third the land area of the lower United States.

Not a bad lump of land area to control and irrigate for about 800 years. Not all of it needed irrigating of course but Ive seen some pretty impressive aqueducts that are still in use 2000 years after they were built.

Supper time now!
Quoting yonzabam:


A national water grid is a fantasy. Water isn't electricity. If the cost of growing a ton of grain with expensive pumped water exceeds the cost of importng the same ton from Russia, then you'll be buying Russian grain.

This is an unsatisfatory situation, because it's not good to be dependent on others for food, oil, or whatever. But, it's economics, and you can't buck the market. Do you really think US bread makers are going to pay more for home grown wheat, rather than buy cheaper, imported wheat?



You don't understand a basic truth, which is that "money" is not economics.

Money is a parasitic abstraction layer.

The Russians won't be able to make enough grain anyway, and neither will anyone else, so you'll be forced pay these costs to get water in order to grow food here, even if it costs 10 times more, because nobody else will have it anyway, as they don't have the land or infrastructure to grow it and ship it.


You can't buy your way out of a famine just because you have paper money, because the other nations only have so much, and they aren't going to sell everything to you and starve themselves in the process, just so they can get some of your paper money to look at.
Quoting pottery:

The difference of course, is the price of the commodity.
If water was priced at US$100.00/bbl (like oil) it would be feasible/profitable/cost effective to move it around.

That's not going to happen of course.
Or will it ?

Sure hope not.
Quoting pottery:

The difference of course, is the price of the commodity.
If water was priced at US$100.00/bbl (like oil) it would be feasible/profitable/cost effective to move it around.

That's not going to happen of course.
Or will it ?


Good point. Barring some miraculous technological advancement, the price of water is destined to rise at a rapid clip over the coming decades.

But of course the ecological and NIMBY issues remain. Plus our modern society has clearly lost its appetite for large engineering projects. Used to be these large projects were held up as evidence of a country's success. These days people just ask "how much will it cost?" and the conversation never makes it past the planning phase...
Quoting RTSplayer:


You don't understand a basic truth, which is that "money" is not economics.

Money is a parasitic abstraction layer.

The Russians won't be able to make enough grain anyway, and neither will anyone else, so you'll be forced pay these costs to get water in order to grow food here, even if it costs 10 times more, because nobody else will have it anyway, as they don't have the land or infrastructure to grow it and ship it.


You can't buy your way out of a famine just because you have paper money, because the other nations only have so much, and they aren't going to sell everything to you and starve themselves in the process, just so they can get some of your paper money to look at.
Reality sucks, man.
Quoting pottery:

It would be cheaper to annex Canada, actually. And Russia.

:):))


It would be cheaper to dump water on farmland with those planes that are used to fight forest fires.
Quoting pottery:

It would be cheaper to annex Canada, actually. And Russia.

:):))

"Annex", "go to war": as between Canada and the U.S.A., it's just words. However, you would still have the problem of moving water from north to south as well as across the divides, and the problem of monitoring the lines against espionage and terrorism -all of which you already knew. :)
Quoting nymore:


Either the crop won't grow or by your water idea If I bought enough to grow my crops you could not afford them anyway.

So what is the difference?


You're missing an important point that food is not an option.

If food prices doubled, you'd pay it, no matter what else you had to give up.

There would just be fewer people driving around in over-sized, over-priced autos, fewer people building over-sized houses, and fewer people wearing designer jeans, and of course fewer people buying a double or triple stack at Wendy's or Burger King, and only a few people would have smartphones, instead of everyone. You'd just buy what you need instead of what you want, and considering we're supposedly the most wealthy nation in the world, I figure there's a lot of room for change in there. There would be even more if the top 1% wasn't robbing everyone else, but that's another discussion.


The point here is food is the most valuable thing in your life. Americans are just too disconnected from reality, with too many man-made abstraction layers to even be aware of this fact.
Ever wondered what your daily probability of being under a Storm Prediction Center high risk is?

Daily High Risk Probabilities
Quoting MrMixon:


Good point. Barring some miraculous technological advancement, the price of water is destined to rise at a rapid clip over the coming decades.

But of course the ecological and NIMBY issues remain. Plus our modern society has clearly lost its appetite for large engineering projects. Used to be these large projects were held up as evidence of a country's success. These days people just ask "how much will it cost?" and the conversation never makes it past the planning phase...

Absolutely.
So I go back to my post 112.

The US is on track to become the MegaManufacturer again.
The economy will grow again.
This will allow for funding of Great Projects again.
Hopefully with all the 'right' intentions/balances in place.

Hopeful times ?
Quoting yonzabam:


It would be cheaper to dump water on farmland with those planes that are used to fight forest fires.
>True. But where do you get the water ?
A hundred cubic miles a month or something.
....
Quoting pottery:

Absolutely.
So I go back to my post 112.

The US is on track to become the MegaManufacturer again.
The economy will grow again.
This will allow for funding of Great Projects again.
Hopefully with all the 'right' intentions/balances in place.

Hopeful times ?


Maybe build up the defense department to the "T" to super size it?

Quoting PlazaRed:
Land area of the contiguous United States is 2,959,064 square miles (7,663,941 km2)
Land area of the Roman empire:- 2,750,000 km²

Roughly a third the land area of the lower United States.

Not a bad lump of land area to control and irrigate for about 800 years. Not all of it needed irrigating of course but Ive seen some pretty impressive aqueducts that are still in use 2000 years after they were built.

Supper time now!
I like the idea, but if there is no precipitation, lakes, rivers are low and wells are dry... this doesn't work.
Quoting Bielle:

"Annex", "go to war": as between Canada and the U.S.A., it's just words. However, you would still have the problem of moving water from north to south as well as across the divides, and the problem of monitoring the lines against espionage and terrorism -all of which you already knew. :)

Yeah, I knew that.

To me, it's a very real issue, which I dont usually make light of.
I dont think that people are aware of the issues with water.
The drinking water in London is currently recycled 7 times as far as I know. That's scary enough for me.
Quoting JustPlantIt:

I like the idea, but if there is no precipitation, lakes, rivers are low and wells are dry... this doesn't work.


Wouldn't need it too, there are plenty of springs and permanent ice caps in the Rockies, plus the high altitude would help the gravity fed aqueducts get the water to the desired destinations.
From Wikipedia:

"In political jargon, useful idiot is a pejorative term for people perceived as propagandists for a cause whose goals they do not understand, and who are used cynically by the leaders of the cause."

Since China has passed the US in CO2 output as part of its economic miracle, that should make China the de facto leader of the denialist movement. I wonder how the Chinese view the typically right wing denial propagandists.
Quoting bappit:
From Wikipedia:

"In political jargon, useful idiot is a pejorative term for people perceived as propagandists for a cause whose goals they do not understand, and who are used cynically by the leaders of the cause."

Since China has passed the US in CO2 output as part of its economic miracle, that should make China the de facto leader of the denialist movement. I wonder how the Chinese view the typically right wing denial propagandists.


Uh Oh.....

heheheheh
An interesting view of Bopha:
163. yoboi
Quoting bappit:
From Wikipedia:

"In political jargon, useful idiot is a pejorative term for people perceived as propagandists for a cause whose goals they do not understand, and who are used cynically by the leaders of the cause."

Since China has passed the US in CO2 output as part of its economic miracle, that should make China the de facto leader of the denialist movement. I wonder how the Chinese view the typically right wing denial propagandists.



they thank the left wing for supporting it?
Quoting yoboi:



they thank the left wing for supporting it?

That's pretty good actually.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Wouldn't need it too, there are plenty of springs and permanent ice caps in the Rockies, plus the high altitude would help the gravity fed aqueducts get the water to the desired destinations.
And.... how permanent are those ice caps with 'global warming'?
Quoting JustPlantIt:

And.... how permanent are those ice caps with 'global warming'?


Those peaks are too high to be effected by a couple of degrees of temperature rise.
Quoting MrMixon:


The Romans did not redistribute massive floodwaters with aqueducts. They used them to bring fountains and running water to urban dwellings and then only where gravity provided favorable conditions to do it.

There's a big scale difference between making a cute fountain in your town square and moving hundreds of millions of acre-feet of water up and over a hydrologic divide.

I've done some back-of-the-envelope calculations using stated costs of existing pipeline systems compared to volumetric estimates for floods/droughts. The numbers aren't even close. The Treasury couldn't print money fast enough to create a nationwide (or even regional) drought/flood relief network.


We gotta start somewhere..
Right now we have nada..
Any suggestions on alleviating the problem?
I personally wouldn't know where to start.. :)

Quoting pottery:

Yeah, I knew that.

To me, it's a very real issue, which I dont usually make light of.
I dont think that people are aware of the issues with water.
The drinking water in London is currently recycled 7 times as far as I know. That's scary enough for me.


Clean water, clean air, healthy food: we have managed to blind ourselves to the problems in no longer being able to provide the first two, and now we are risk of doing the same with water. Dirty water is better than no water up to a point, like dirty air and unhealthy food. When do we reach the point, I wonder?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Those peaks are too high to be effected by a couple of degrees of temperature rise.

How would you get the ice to flow down your pipe?
Heat it ?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ever wondered what your daily probability of being under a Storm Prediction Center high risk is?

Daily High Risk Probabilities
I haven't looked at the link yet, but if you're talking severe risk area on a Convective Outlook annually, I figure central Oklahoma at about .0055% which amounts a high risk severe day two times a year. Realistically, could be half that.

As far the risk stated on watches when watches are issued, I don't know if I should factor that in, or if that is a separate thing. I think the risk on watches would be slightly higher than the convective outlook high risk days.

Haha. I looked. I see that is from Patrick Marsh. And that it's based on different times of year, not just an annual look. That's neat. Thanks for posting it. Maybe you follow his website. Sometimes I do. He expresses some interesting ideas and opinions. And data. LOL
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Those peaks are too high to be effected by a couple of degrees of temperature rise.
I disagree, a few degrees and lots of wind would devastate the peaks of water. Just my thoughts.The evaporation of moisture that is.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Reports for Hurricane Michael and Tropical Storm Oscar are out.

Michael

Duration: 3-11 September
Max. winds: 100 knots (115 mph) (09/06/2012 12z)
Min. pressure: 964 millibars (09/06/2012 12z)
Damage: N/A
Fatalities: 0

Oscar

Duration: 3-5 October
Max. winds: 45 knots (50 mph) (10/05/2012 06z)
Min. pressure: 994 millibars (10/05/2012 06z)
Damage: N/A
Fatalities: 0
I thought Michael was a little stronger than 115mph but oh well.
Quoting RTSplayer:


You're missing an important point that food is not an option.

If food prices doubled, you'd pay it, no matter what else you had to give up.

There would just be fewer people driving around in over-sized, over-priced autos, fewer people building over-sized houses, and fewer people wearing designer jeans, and of course fewer people buying a double or triple stack at Wendy's or Burger King, and only a few people would have smartphones, instead of everyone. You'd just buy what you need instead of what you want, and considering we're supposedly the most wealthy nation in the world, I figure there's a lot of room for change in there. There would be even more if the top 1% wasn't robbing everyone else, but that's another discussion.


The point here is food is the most valuable thing in your life. Americans are just too disconnected from reality, with too many man-made abstraction layers to even be aware of this fact.
only the people driving around in those over sized autos will be able to pay.

The poor they will suffer greatly.

After careful considerations of some of your arguments, I have come to the conclusion you should move out of your parents house while you still know everything.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Wouldn't need it too, there are plenty of springs and permanent ice caps in the Rockies, plus the high altitude would help the gravity fed aqueducts get the water to the desired destinations.


If only there were any "extra" water in the Rockies. I don't know the situation for other states, but every drop of water in Colorado is already bought and paid for. Most land owners don't own the water on their land here. We're not even (legally) allowed to catch rain water running off our roofs. There's not a single extra drop of water in our stretch of the Rockies to supply an aqueduct system.

Moreover, there are at any one time numerous ongoing lawsuits regarding claims to Colorado water. It's a messy, complicated system and the only real certainty is that there are no longer any springs or ice fields in Colorado that are unclaimed (many are claimed by more than one party - hence the lawsuits).
Quoting pottery:

How would you get the ice to flow down your pipe?
Heat it ?


Even if we are ale to move the water around, it won't last long. If we are lucky, the droughts are cyclical on a human-lifetime scale or less, and we won't have to suck up all the stored water. If the droughts are here to stay, then we have too many people to support, even here in North America, and the problems of overpopulation that plague much of the rest of the world, will become ours.
Quoting Bielle:


Clean water, clean air, healthy food: we have managed to blind ourselves to the problems in no longer being able to provide the first two, and now we are risk of doing the same with water. Dirty water is better than no water up to a point, like dirty air and unhealthy food. When do we reach the point, I wonder?

You are being very depressing.
Factual. But depressing nonetheless.
Cant we discuss something positive and pleasant, like..., er, um, well, .....

It's a lovely evening here today.

:):))
Quoting pcola57:


We gotta start somewhere..
Right now we have nada..
Any suggestions on alleviating the problem?
I personally wouldn't know where to start.. :)


It's a networking problem, not unlike interstate highways or the internet.

You just need to figure out who tends to need the most water and who tends to have the most water, and run pipelines between them for starters. Then you can set up hubs for redirecting water to other cities, or reversing the flow if needed.

You could probably get a pretty decent system by following the existing interstate highway system, although some ants or bacteria on a scaled model of the nation could probably find something more efficient than humans, as they are very good at networking algorithms for finding the most efficient configuration.
Quoting JustPlantIt:

I like the idea, but if there is no precipitation, lakes, rivers are low and wells are dry... this doesn't work.


We might need to look at desalination as an option and pump/pipe it to the regions that need it. We've been refining oil and transporting it across thousands of miles pipe in this country for decades. You'd think we'd be able to do the same thing with H20. Also I think that once the heartland has gotten its soil moisture back up it will help break the drought cycle in that region.
am i the only one who finds it just crazy that the shape of the 'exceptional' segment of the drought map almost exactly matches the shape of the ogallala aquifer?

that's just nuts, that is.

Quoting RitaEvac:






Quoting nymore:
only the people driving around in those over sized autos will be able to pay.

The poor they will suffer greatly.

After careful considerations of some of your arguments, I have come to the conclusion you should move out of your parents house while you still know everything.


We were doing fine with this discussion on civil terms, until your last sentence. Reconsidering it -there is a "Modify comment" button- would be helpful.
Quoting MrMixon:


If only there were any "extra" water in the Rockies. I don't know the situation for other states, but every drop of water in Colorado is already bought and paid for. Most land owners don't own the water on their land here. We're not even (legally) allowed to catch rain water running off our roofs. There's not a single extra drop of water in our stretch of the Rockies to supply an aqueduct system.

Moreover, there are at any one time numerous ongoing lawsuits regarding claims to Colorado water. It's a messy, complicated system and the only real certainty is that there are no longer any springs or ice fields in Colorado that are unclaimed (many are claimed by more than one party - hence the lawsuits).


But it's legal to smoke weed there now huh? hell with the law, take all the water you want off your property
Mr. Mixon..I hadn't read your post #139 before posting mine at #167..
You brought up some great points there..
My only issue in any of this discussion on water is..
We already know the problem..anyone have some viable options?
A society cannot and will not survive without it..
I'm certainly not downing anyone..we should take all ideas..
Quoting pottery:

You are being very depressing.
Factual. But depressing nonetheless.
Cant we discuss something positive and pleasant, like..., er, um, well, .....

It's a lovely evening here today.

:):))


I've had a week of rain and would like to trade for some sun. My dark perceptions may be related to atmospheric gloom, an ironic factor when discussing water shortages.
Quoting schwankmoe:
am i the only one who finds it just crazy that the shape of the 'exceptional' segment of the drought map almost exactly matches the shape of the ogallala aquifer?

that's just nuts, that is.

I noticed that as well.
Quoting pottery:

How would you get the ice to flow down your pipe?
Heat it ?


Of course. We could pay the growing unemployed population to melt the ice with blowtorches. At least they'd be earning their welfare money.
Quoting yonzabam:
Water extracted from the Ogallala aquifer irrigates much of the crop land in the drought affected area. But I assume farmers have to pay for that, so grain will be more expensive.

Unfortunately the Ogallala has been drawn down extensively over the years and is replenished very slowly; it is also being polluted. (New York Times 30 Nov 2011: "The Ogallala Aquifer is essential to our food and water security, yet it is being wasted and polluted.") And although farmers and other users have to pay to drill wells and deepen them, and for electricity to pump the water, they don't otherwise pay for the water, as they do for surface water reservoir irrigation.

(Edit:) One major problem, obvious from aerial photos of the area (circular fields, with the wellhead in the center), is that most irrigation is sprinkler-type, very wasteful of water because of evaporation. Much more efficient of water use but more expensive to install is drip irrigation.
Quoting pcola57:


We gotta start somewhere..
Right now we have nada..
Any suggestions on alleviating the problem?
I personally wouldn't know where to start.. :)


My suggestion would be to abandon the idea of "preventing" floods and droughts and focus instead on tailoring our regional practices and lifestyles to accommodate the conditions we find.

It doesn't make any sense to me that new houses and neighborhoods in Colorado look almost indistinguishable from new houses and neighborhoods in southern Louisiana. These are very different ecosystems which, in my opinion, demand very different design approaches.

I think we could do so much more on a local or regional scale to reduce energy and water needs through smart designs. In Colorado that might mean abandoning the idea of green lawns and focusing on creating communities that maximize water conservation through intelligent building and infrastructure design. In flood-prone areas of the South and East it might mean prohibiting residential construction in the lowest floodzones and repurposing those lands for agriculture and recreation.

I think thousands of little redesign projects to account for local conditions would make just as big a difference as one large project that attempts to circumvent those conditions.
Quoting Bielle:


Even if we are ale to move the water around, it won't last long. If we are lucky, the droughts are cyclical on a human-lifetime scale or less, and we won't have to suck up all the stored water. If the droughts are here to stay, then we have too many people to support, even here in North America, and the problems of overpopulation that plague much of the rest of the world, will become ours.

That's a problem faced by everyone. Exaccerbated by times of low food supply.

Surpisingly, the Population here in Trinidad has become quite stable at about 1.3 mil. since 2000 or so.
Education and wealth (petroleum) have made the difference.

Some countries are suffering population decreases which are concerning them. Troubles....
Quoting pcola57:
Mr. Mixon..I hadn't read your post #139 before posting mine at #167..
You brought up some great points there..
My only issue in any of this discussion on water is..
We already know the problem..anyone have some viable options?
A society cannot and will not survive without it..
I'm certainly not downing anyone..we should take all ideas..


Can someone tell if the oil pipelines go from source to refinery basically without any intermediate siphoning?

190. txjac
A step that everyone could take right now is to get of the bottle! Those plastic water bottles that is.

It takes two gallons of water to make/purify every gallon of bottled water ...and much of the bottled water is tap water to begin with.

Time to buy a filter system for your home or invest in one that works with your faucet.

Actually if we would lessen our dependence on the bottled water we would be helping the environment in two way.

1. Decrease water consumption
2. Decrease some dependency on oil as those platic botlles are evil to the environment.

It's dropped 10 degrees here in Houston ...total overcast ...little bit of thunder and lightening ...and a few sprinkles
191. yoboi
Quoting schwankmoe:
am i the only one who finds it just crazy that the shape of the 'exceptional' segment of the drought map almost exactly matches the shape of the ogallala aquifer?

that's just nuts, that is.




and
Quoting MrMixon:


My suggestion would be to abandon the idea of "preventing" floods and droughts and focus instead on tailoring our regional practices and lifestyles to accommodate the conditions we find.

It doesn't make any sense to me that new houses and neighborhoods in Colorado look almost indistinguishable from new houses and neighborhoods in southern Louisiana. These are very different ecosystems which, in my opinion, demand very different design approaches.

I think we could do so much more on a local or regional scale to reduce energy and water needs through smart designs. In Colorado that might mean abandoning the idea of green lawns and focusing on creating communities that maximize water conservation through intelligent building and infrastructure design. In flood-prone areas of the South and East it might mean prohibiting residential construction in the lowest floodzones and repurposing those lands for agriculture and recreation.

I think thousands of little redesign projects to account for local conditions would make just as big a difference as one large project that attempts to circumvent those conditions.


Thanks for your input Mr. Mixon
Very good thinking in my book..
Each area has a climate of it's own..
Here in Pensacola we have been rated to have the worst water in the US..
I only drink bottled water here and use the municipal water for clothes washing ect..
I finally convinced my mother to quit watering the lawn here...
The lawn was just awful until rains came and wow what a difference..
I agree that as a society we all need to remedy our building codes to allow and encourage better homes with intelligent designs to protect our futures..
Thanks again.. :)
Quoting Bielle:


Can someone tell if the oil pipelines go from source to refinery basically without any intermediate siphoning?



I believe that there are both pipes that transport crude unrefined oil from a drill area or tanker distribution center to a refinery as well as pipes that transport refined petroleum products from refineries to other centers. Not sure but I know we have hundreds of miles of underground pipes transporting that stuff from the coast to inland here in TX. Then you have the Alaska pipeline for example that transports crude oil over 800 miles in a four foot diameter pipe. I believe there are a bunch of pumps throughout the line that are required move the oil across the state.
Quoting yonzabam:


In mountainous terrain, a slow moving tropical storm can be much more deadly than a fast moving major hurricane.



Ehh, I think I'll take a slow moving tropical storm over a major hurricane any day. I know you said mountains, but still. We had one earlier this year here, tropical storm Debby in Central and North Florida, hours of tropical storm force winds, a long period of surge, multiple tornadoes and 10 to 15 inches of rain. Even with all that though, it mostly an "exciting" weather event for a weather lover like me. Now, if a category 3 or 4 hurricane slammed into my area, I would NOT be saying the same thing. That would be horrific around here, and devastating.

Even regarding mountains, if a category 4 hurricane slams into a mountainous coastline, there will be devastation in those mountainous areas. Just ask Taiwan, who has had major tropical cyclones strike its mountainous terrain. Think about it, the core of a major hurricane running into high terrain, will create devastating weather in that region, the resulting topographic lift is of epic proportions...

I mean yes mountains weaken major hurricanes quickly, but so do landmasses in general. If I lived on mountainous coast. I'd still take a slow moving tropical storm any day over a major hurricane...
All the talk about aqueducts makes me think of what used to be the Aral Sea.
Quoting nymore:
only the people driving around in those over sized autos will be able to pay.

The poor they will suffer greatly.

After careful considerations of some of your arguments, I have come to the conclusion you should move out of your parents house while you still know everything.


Where'd that comment come from?

I'm aware the poor would still suffer. Why were you more interested in slinging an insult instead of examining fundamental needs of human life?

Besides that, which of my comments do you object to anyway?

There's currently around a billion people in the world classified as "hungry" or similar terms, so where would the extra food come from to feed you or me if we couldn't grow it here?

Do you really think you could buy food from anyone else if the U.S. agriculture tanked due to drought?

Who is going to have that much excess to be able to sell it?

How would you even attempt to grow food for yourself? Many Americans now live a quarter acre to half-acre lots where there's not enough room to do much more than grow a small grocery crop for "stress relief," as a hobby.
think like a permaculturalist.

it isn't the solution to every agrarian problem, but when it comes to making ecosystems more resistant to the vicissitudes of the water cycle it's hard to find anything more effective in the long run.

Quoting MrMixon:


My suggestion would be to abandon the idea of "preventing" floods and droughts and focus instead on tailoring our regional practices and lifestyles to accommodate the conditions we find.

It doesn't make any sense to me that new houses and neighborhoods in Colorado look almost indistinguishable from new houses and neighborhoods in southern Louisiana. These are very different ecosystems which, in my opinion, demand very different design approaches.

I think we could do so much more on a local or regional scale to reduce energy and water needs through smart designs. In Colorado that might mean abandoning the idea of green lawns and focusing on creating communities that maximize water conservation through intelligent building and infrastructure design. In flood-prone areas of the South and East it might mean prohibiting residential construction in the lowest floodzones and repurposing those lands for agriculture and recreation.

I think thousands of little redesign projects to account for local conditions would make just as big a difference as one large project that attempts to circumvent those conditions.
Quoting MrMixon:


My suggestion would be to abandon the idea of "preventing" floods and droughts and focus instead on tailoring our regional practices and lifestyles to accommodate the conditions we find.

It doesn't make any sense to me that new houses and neighborhoods in Colorado look almost indistinguishable from new houses and neighborhoods in southern Louisiana. These are very different ecosystems which, in my opinion, demand very different design approaches.

I think we could do so much more on a local or regional scale to reduce energy and water needs through smart designs. In Colorado that might mean abandoning the idea of green lawns and focusing on creating communities that maximize water conservation through intelligent building and infrastructure design. In flood-prone areas of the South and East it might mean prohibiting residential construction in the lowest floodzones and repurposing those lands for agriculture and recreation.

I think thousands of little redesign projects to account for local conditions would make just as big a difference as one large project that attempts to circumvent those conditions.


Some of the most insightful comments I've ever seen on here.
Midway through October, almost 64 percent of the contiguous United States remains in some form of drought, as the nation's most widespread drought since 1956 continues to threaten drinking water supplies, crops and livestock.

A stunning 90 percent of the West is abnormally dry, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, with large areas of extreme drought in Colorado and Wyoming. Moderate to severe drought now stretches from Montana, south to Arizona, New Mexico and California.

The summer's epic Midwest drought has eased in the region's east, where Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois suffer only moderate drought. But farther west, Iowa still endures extreme drought, while Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma are gripped by exceptional drought.
Quoting MrMixon:


If only there were any "extra" water in the Rockies. I don't know the situation for other states, but every drop of water in Colorado is already bought and paid for. Most land owners don't own the water on their land here. We're not even (legally) allowed to catch rain water running off our roofs. There's not a single extra drop of water in our stretch of the Rockies to supply an aqueduct system.

Moreover, there are at any one time numerous ongoing lawsuits regarding claims to Colorado water. It's a messy, complicated system and the only real certainty is that there are no longer any springs or ice fields in Colorado that are unclaimed (many are claimed by more than one party - hence the lawsuits).


That seems ludicrous to me... there is a law against collecting your own rain water? That is like the most water consevationy thing a person can do.
Quoting pcola57:


Thanks for your input Mr. Mixon
Very good thinking in my book..
Each area has a climate of it's own..
Here in Pensacola we have been rated to have the worst water in the US..
I only drink bottled water here and use the municipal water for clothes washing ect..
I finally convinced my mother to quit watering the lawn here...
The lawn was just awful until rains came and wow what a difference..
I agree that as a society we all need to remedy our building codes to allow and encourage better homes with intelligent designs to protect our futures..
Thanks again.. :)


Here, out in the countryside, I am surrounded by working farms, a mix of grain and vegetable crops and dairy farms, with some beef. It is considered unneighbourly to water grass. We are all relying on groundwater and, while we have enough and then some right at the moment, any given year can be a bad one. A beautiful lawn, except after a good rain, is not something in which we take any pride.
Quoting calkevin77:


I believe that there are both pipes that transport crude unrefined oil from a drill area or tanker distribution center to a refinery as well as pipes that transport refined petroleum products from refineries to other centers. Not sure but I know we have hundreds of miles of underground pipes transporting that stuff from the coast to inland here in TX. Then you have the Alaska pipeline for example that transports crude oil over 800 miles in a four foot diameter pipe. I believe there are a bunch of pumps throughout the line that are required move the oil across the state.


Quoting RitaEvac:




Wow! Thank you and calkevin77.
Quoting Bielle:


Wow! Thank you and calkevin77.


Why it's economically damaging when storms hit LA and TX
Quoting yonzabam:


Of course. We could pay the growing unemployed population to melt the ice with blowtorches. At least they'd be earning their welfare money.

A long road and buckets?
Quoting RitaEvac:




A further question from someone who knows very little science: water and oil don't mix. Is there any way of using the existing oil pipelines (or some of them at some times) to transport water, either concurrently or at alternating times? Presumably it all has to be filtered anyway . . .
It has been a long time since I've made a poll, so here goes one.

Q: Should the Atlantic hurricane season start date be pushed back from June 1 to May 15?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Makes no difference to me
Quoting Bielle:


A further question from someone who knows very little science: water and oil don't mix. Is there any way of using the existing oil pipelines (or some of them at some times) to transport water, either concurrently or at alternating times? Presumably it all has to be filtered anyway . . .


I heard they could do it, but have to google it
Quoting Bielle:


Here, out in the countryside, I am surrounded by working farms, a mix of grain and vegetable crops and dairy farms, with some beef. It is considered unneighbourly to water grass. We are all relying on groundwater and, while we have enough and then some right at the moment, any given year can be a bad one. A beautiful lawn, except after a good rain, is not something in which we take any pride.


Like I said earlier..I had to convince my mom not to water..
It's the old ways that are harder to break..JMO. :)
Quoting Bielle:


A further question from someone who knows very little science: water and oil don't mix. Is there any way of using the existing oil pipelines (or some of them at some times) to transport water, either concurrently or at alternating times? Presumably it all has to be filtered anyway . . .


There would be, but since water weighs more and is denser the pumps that are able to pump the oil may not be able to pump the water. Plus you have to factor in the viscosity of the liquids.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It has been a long time since I've made a poll, so here goes one.

Q: Should the Atlantic hurricane season start date be pushed back from June 1 to May 15?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Makes no difference to me


C
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It has been a long time since I've made a poll, so here goes one.

Q: Should the Atlantic hurricane season start date be pushed back from June 1 to May 15?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Makes no difference to me


C
Quoting RitaEvac:




#203
Wow!! what a map Rita..
I had no clue..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It has been a long time since I've made a poll, so here goes one.

Q: Should the Atlantic hurricane season start date be pushed back from June 1 to May 15?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Makes no difference to me

A!!!! A A A A A.....
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


There would be, but since water weighs more and is denser the pumps that are able to pump the oil may not be able to pump the water. Plus you have to factor in the viscosity of the liquids.


I wonder how the cost of sorting such problems might compare to the cost of new, liquid-specific piping.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


There would be, but since water weighs more and is denser the pumps that are able to pump the oil may not be able to pump the water. Plus you have to factor in the viscosity of the liquids.


It maybe the ultimate plan long term, once we wing off oil and its use is nowhere at the levels needed, we can start converting those pipelines into water lines to water the country. That's the route I would go.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It has been a long time since I've made a poll, so here goes one.

Q: Should the Atlantic hurricane season start date be pushed back from June 1 to May 15?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Makes no difference to me
A. Yes. Might just make a difference to the climate change and warming. Storms seem to be happening sooner and data should be kept earlier.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It has been a long time since I've made a poll, so here goes one.

Q: Should the Atlantic hurricane season start date be pushed back from June 1 to May 15?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Makes no difference to me
B
81 dead as Pablo rips through Mindanao

MANILA, Philippines (5th UPDATE) - At least 81 people have died in Mindanao from the Onslaught of Typhoon Pablo (international name Bopha), authorities said Tuesday.

In New Bataan town in Compostela Valley, 43 people died when flash floods swept away an Army patrol base, a landslide hit a community, and trees Fell on people and the height of the typhoon.

"I saw itself, soldiers dead ... 43 here now," ABS-CBN News Southern Mindanao Vina Araneta told ANC reporter by telephone.

On the way to the disaster site, Araneta also met a man who said His 2-year-old child died because I of the typhoon.

"If we include those killed 2-year-old mind 44 were confirmed dead in New servant, Compostela Valley alone," she said. "Definitely so it dies after fall on a palm tree in strong winds. Definitely others drowned because of the height of the flood and mud."

Lt.. Col. Lyndon Paniza, spokesman of the Army's 10th Infantry Division, confirmed the deaths.

He said 23 others were injured while six soldiers remain missing.

Paniza said he has no confirmed information yet on the number of missing civilians in the Compostela Valley tragedy.

Compostela Valley Governor Arturo Uy said local officials told him earlier in the day that 34 people were killed in New Bataan.

"It's possible They have found more bodies," Uy told ANC.

"The first news, there is suddenly a huge blast of water from a mountain which they expected," he said.

"Do I please request that the chopper in the Army. Appealed as I provide whatever assistance - rescue equipment," he added.

Benito Ramos, executive director of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), told ANC he has no information yet on the Compostela Valley tragedy.

He said They are still verifying the reports.

The typhoon has also killed and least 29 people in Davao Oriental province, police said Tuesday.

Twenty-three people died in Cateel town alone because I of a flash flood caused by a storm surge, provincial police director Supt. Romil Mitra said.

He said 95 others were injured.

Initial reports said an evacuation center in the town collapsed.

Four fishermen were also reported missing, said Freddie Bendulo, planning and development officer of Davao Oriental.

Three were killed in Caraga, and 3 died in BANGANGA, Tarragona, and Manay, according to Mitra.

Deaths in Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Sur

Three people also died in Surigao del Sur, according to police chief Supt. Ranier Pearl.

One of the fatalities, 68-year-old Rosita Amundio, died when a coconut tree Fell on her house.

Two were killed in Lingig, near Surigao del Sur's boundary with Davao Oriental.

Five people also died in Trento town in Agusan del Sur, according to radio dzMM's Noel Alamar.

"I was able to penetrate Bislig City, Surigao Sur in Lingig. Sites of destruction. People need help here," Alamar said on Twitter Tuesday night.

More than 53,000 in emergency shelters

As Night Fell and the typhoon continued its Onslaught in Mindanao, fears rose that the toll could rise sharply as the strongest storm to hit the country this year brought scenes of devastation.

On Tuesday, Typhoon Pablo brought driving rain and packed gusts of up to 210 kilometers an hour, toppling trees and power lines, causing flashfloods and forcing more than 50,000 to seek refuge in emergency shelters.

The cyclone, Which had weakened after making landfall, headed for the Sulu Sea in the late afternoon, changing course westward, state weather bureau PAGASA said.

Winds blew roofs off some buildings and residents of coastal and low-lying communities in Mindanao moved into shelters as floods hit some areas.

Television footage also showed logs being swept down river Mindanao's Sumilao, utility workers and cutting up fallen trees that were blocking highways.

More than 53,000 people had moved into government shelters nearly 1,000 by early Sunday, the NDRRMC said.

Television footage showed large numbers of people lying on mats or cardboard sheets on the concrete floors of gyms.

People living in the path of the storm They did what could to protected Their homes and possessions.

"We have taken our pigs and chickens inside our house because I shed Their Might be destroyed," 46-year-old shopkeeper Marianita Villamor from the southern farming town of San Fermin said.

In Cagayan de Oro city, where giant waves crashed down on the shoreline, Mayor Vicente Emano told ABS-CBN News that police rounded up all residents of low-lying areas and moved them to government shelters.

In Tagum City, hotel waiter Edgie Atilano, 23, said he and His family hunkered down in Their Home as Pablo bore down.

"And 3:00 am, we were woken by strong rain and howling winds. Trees and branches started snapping off near the house," he said. "This is my first time to experience a strong typhoon. It was a bit scary."

Typhoon heads for Palawan

By early evening the weakened typhoon was streaking across the Sulu Sea, having changed course westward in the afternoon after briefly threatening the central tourist islands of Bohol, Cebu and Negros, the state weather service said.

It was heading Toward the north western tip of the island of Palawan and the South China Sea beyond.

A total of 146 flights to and from Mindanao and the central islands had been grounded since Thursday night and more than 3,000 passengers were stranded as ferry vessels were ordered to stay in port, according to a civil defense updates.

Large parts of Mindanao, Which is not normally hit by typhoons, were still without electricity on Tuesday night, it added.

Typhoon Bopha/Pablo comes after tropical storm Sendong (Washi) hit Mindanao in December last year, killing more than 1,200 and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless. - With reports from Vina Araneta and Paul Palacio, ABS-CBN News Southern Mindanao: Jeff Canoy, ABS-CBN News: Noel Alamar, dzMM; ANC: Agence France-Presse
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It has been a long time since I've made a poll, so here goes one.

Q: Should the Atlantic hurricane season start date be pushed back from June 1 to May 15?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Makes no difference to me
Mother Nature doesn't know the calender, She starts when she wants to start, like some women. lol
Quoting AussieStorm:
Mother Nature doesn't know the calender, She starts when she wants to start, like some women. lol



And ends when she wants as well.
Quoting Bielle:


A further question from someone who knows very little science: water and oil don't mix. Is there any way of using the existing oil pipelines (or some of them at some times) to transport water, either concurrently or at alternating times? Presumably it all has to be filtered anyway . . .


I honestly thought about that same thing. From a theoretical standpoint you could use the piping infrastructure to move water instead of oil. You%u2019d of course have to retrofit the pumping stations account for pressure/volume difference etc between oil and water. From a realistic standpoint though this would not be good as the lines would need to be completely shutdown cleaned out of all things petroleum etc and verified that no cross contamination existed. Not to mention I highly doubt that they would trade oil for water but who knows. Desperate situations lead to desperate measures. On a similar note, however, we already have a majority of the water distribution infrastructure in place (the pipes in your city distribution plants, gravity tanks etc.) The issue that we deal with is not so much how the water gets from point A to point B but rather where does the water come from at point A to begin with. If it%u2019s not coming from the sky, aquifers, rivers, or lakes then as I mentioned earlier, desalination might be the way to go. Lots of water in the ocean to tap into. I know in Florida that there are water companies that use desalination and pump it into the main system. It uses reverse osmosis and it isn%u2019t cheap but it%u2019s an option. As our population grows so does the demand so we have to be creative on both where we get our water from and how we use it and conserve it. Thankfully in the truest sense that water is renewable. The same stuff you drink now at one point was probably peed out of a tyrannosaurus rex so it%u2019s available somewhere. In many places thought its just not where you want it to be naturally. Also since the US has three oceans on its borders this makes it that much easier that it%u2019s there. I%u2019d hate to be a country that was landlocked with its border states having water sources and not getting along with you.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
5:00 AM PhST December 5 2012
==============================

Typhoon "PABLO" has further weakened as it continues to move towards northern Palawan

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [972 hPa] located at 10.2°N 120.4°E or 180 km east of Puerto Princesa City has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots gusting up to 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #3
-----------

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Northern Palawan
2. Calamian Grp. of Islands

Signal Warning #2
-----------

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Rest of Palawan

Visayas Region
-------------
1. Antique
2. Iloilo
3. Guimaras
4. Bohol
5. Siquijor
6. Southern Cebu
7. Negros Oriental
8. Negros Occidental

Signal Warning #1
----------

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Occidental Mindoro
2. Lubang Is.
3. Oriental Mindoro
4. Romblon

Visayas Region
=============
1. Aklan
2. Capiz
3. Rest of Cebu

Mindanao Region
================
1. Lanao del Norte
2. Misamis Occidental
3. Zamboanga del Norte
4. Camiguin

Additional Information
========================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-18 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #3 and signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this typhoon.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 am today.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
423 PM CST TUE DEC 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ARANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...
EXTREME EASTERN REFUGIO COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CST

* AT 417 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ARANSAS NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...OR 12 MILES WEST
OF SEADRIFT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARANSAS NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
So what facts can people here tell me about fracking, I have a school project on it due tomorrow and I've barely started. Sources too please, if you can. The area I'm focusing on is potential air pollution and impacts on possible climate change.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


That seems ludicrous to me... there is a law against collecting your own rain water? That is like the most water consevationy thing a person can do.


Quoting RitaEvac:


But it's legal to smoke weed there now huh? hell with the law, take all the water you want off your property


There's an old saying in Colorado: You can steal my wife, but not my water.

I've also heard: whiskey is for drinking, water is for fighting.

Yes, many people do set up rain barrels to catch water, despite the laws. But the fact is that in Colorado and many western states all land is considered to have a "split estate". This means you might own the land, but you do not own the water and/or mineral rights unless you explicitly buy them - and most land owners do not... mostly because those rights rarely come up for sale. It's all a matter of scale - you can collect a little bit of rain water for your garden. But if you steal too much water, you WILL get in trouble...

Case in point:

"FORT MORGAN, Colo. (AP) -- A Fort Morgan farmer believed to be the first sent to jail by a Colorado water court on allegations of stealing water is now free but owes penalties to the state."

LINK TO FULL STORY

Quoting AussieStorm:
Mother Nature doesn't know the calender, She starts when she wants to start, like some women. lol
Mother Nature or a manmade midlife crisis.... HA
Quoting RitaEvac:


It maybe the ultimate plan long term, once we wing off oil and its use is nowhere at the levels needed, we can start converting those pipelines into water lines to water the country. That's the route I would go.

Well at least we are getting a bit more positive about all this.
Water is much thinner than oil and a bit heaver. The pumps would need altering or upgrading to deal with water which is a lot more difficult in some ways to pump. On the plus side its not hazardous to the environment and wont burn.
I read somewhere that oil is pumped at higher than the ambient background temp, hence the reason why the pipelines in permafrost areas are elevated above the ground to stop thawing.
Of course its unlikely that water will necessarily be available at the terminals of the oil pipelines, so add on bits of pipes will be needed to connect to any available water but if water is available on route so to say, then water could be pumped in both directions from the source.
I am sure that a lot of pipelines are at least now semi redundant and as a lot of them according to the map seem to be in the drought stricken areas, maybe its the germ of an idea to use them. After all, its probably somebody's funeral not to?
Quoting VaStormGuy:
So what facts can people here tell me about fracking, I have a school project on it due tomorrow and I've barely started. Sources too please, if you can. The area I'm focusing on is potential air pollution and impacts on possible climate change.


I quick searched this for fracking. Scroll down for several articles.
More Typhoon Pablo Photo's....

























#TORNADO WARNING for Aransas, Calhoun, Refugio Counties until 5:15 PM CDT. Developing tornado west of Austwell.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
423 PM CST TUE DEC 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ARANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...
EXTREME EASTERN REFUGIO COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CST

* AT 417 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ARANSAS NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...OR 12 MILES WEST
OF SEADRIFT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARANSAS NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
So far, for West Palm Beach, no big changes through Dec. 14...

Amount of farmland in the USA is 922 million acres (source USDA), now to cover that area with 1 foot of water. It would take approx. 1750 times the entire amount of the water flowing in the Mississippi river annually. Mississippi flow rate Approx. 525,000 acre feet per year (USGS)

The plan just is not feasible.

BTW I rounded numbers and figured someplaces would need more some less so averaged a foot.

Quoting MrMixon:




There's an old saying in Colorado: You can steal my wife, but not my water.

I've also heard: whiskey is for drinking, water is for fighting.

But yes, many people do set up rain barrels to catch water, despite the laws. But the fact remains - in Colorado and many western states all land is considered to have a "split estate". Meaning that you might own the land, but you do not own the water and/or mineral rights unless you explicitly buy them - and most land owners do not... mostly because those rights rarely come up for sale. It's all a matter of scale - you can collect a little bit of rain water for your garden. But if you steal too much water, you WILL get in trouble...

Case in point:

"FORT MORGAN, Colo. (AP) -- A Fort Morgan farmer believed to be the first sent to jail by a Colorado water court on allegations of stealing water is now free but owes penalties to the state."

LINK TO FULL STORY
This is crazy!!! Water will be like gold.
Sandy Victims Being Hit With Downed Tree Violations, LIPA Fees

While the neighborhoods shattered by Hurricane Sandy are far from being back to normal, the faceless bureaucratic mechanisms of the City and the Long Island Power Authority seem to be kicking back in. Homeowners are being ticketed by the DOB for fallen trees on their properties, and LIPA is charging customers a "delivery fee" for returning their power, even though it was out for weeks—mainly because of the utility's incompetence.
As the New York Times put it, "the storm struck the city’s trees like a chain saw on methamphetamines," knocking down more than 8,000 in the street and many more in parks. In Queens, homeowners with downed trees say that the DOB is handing out violations that warn that they could face legal action if the trees aren't removed.
“People are stressed out, they are in a situation that is really horrible and then they got these violations,” the president of the Queens Civic Congress, Richard Hellenbrect, tells the Daily News. State Senator Tony Avella added, "This is one more example of the insensitivity sometimes of the city. They really need to retract these violations." Though the citations do not carry a monetary penalty, they stay on the books indefinitely and give the city legal recourse to act.
WNYC reports that LIPA is tacking on a delivery fee of more than $10—something ConEd and other utilities in the region have refused to do. "I'm flabbergasted," a LIPA customer in Northport says. "I just don't understand why they think it's necessary." More than half of the 86% of LIPA customers who lost power were without it for more than a week. LIPA will be refunding customers who were billed for "estimated" usage, but is sticking by the fee, calling it "the very minimum it costs LIPA to provide a 24/7 connection to the electric system." A spokesperson tells WNYC that the charge will be discussed at a meeting on Thursday.


(Bureaucracy gone made)
Quoting AussieStorm:
Sandy Victims Being Hit With Downed Tree Violations, LIPA Fees

While the neighborhoods shattered by Hurricane Sandy are far from being back to normal, the faceless bureaucratic mechanisms of the City and the Long Island Power Authority seem to be kicking back in. Homeowners are being ticketed by the DOB for fallen trees on their properties, and LIPA is charging customers a "delivery fee" for returning their power, even though it was out for weeks%u2014mainly because of the utility's incompetence.
As the New York Times put it, "the storm struck the city%u2019s trees like a chain saw on methamphetamines," knocking down more than 8,000 in the street and many more in parks. In Queens, homeowners with downed trees say that the DOB is handing out violations that warn that they could face legal action if the trees aren't removed.
%u201CPeople are stressed out, they are in a situation that is really horrible and then they got these violations,%u201D the president of the Queens Civic Congress, Richard Hellenbrect, tells the Daily News. State Senator Tony Avella added, "This is one more example of the insensitivity sometimes of the city. They really need to retract these violations." Though the citations do not carry a monetary penalty, they stay on the books indefinitely and give the city legal recourse to act.
WNYC reports that LIPA is tacking on a delivery fee of more than $10%u2014something ConEd and other utilities in the region have refused to do. "I'm flabbergasted," a LIPA customer in Northport says. "I just don't understand why they think it's necessary." More than half of the 86% of LIPA customers who lost power were without it for more than a week. LIPA will be refunding customers who were billed for "estimated" usage, but is sticking by the fee, calling it "the very minimum it costs LIPA to provide a 24/7 connection to the electric system." A spokesperson tells WNYC that the charge will be discussed at a meeting on Thursday.


(Bureaucracy gone made)
Holy s*****t. Now this is close to home and no news on major media, where did you get this? This is way over the top! Please send a link. Thanks. NY Times... still not on a major network.
Typhoon ‘Pablo’ pounds Mindanao



Blown in the wind. Deaths in flash floods.
That’s what happened in areas in Mindanao raked by powerful Typhoon “Pablo” before dawn Tuesday.
Pablo moved swiftly on its predicted path, sending roofs flying off houses, hectares of coconut trees tumbling, rivers bursting their banks, canceling flights and ferry services, church bells ringing and sirens wailing in a large part of Mindanao where the Category 5 storm passed.
Inquirer bureaus in Mindanao and Cebu, in reports attributed to local officials, and civil defense authorities put the initial death toll—mainly in flash floods—at 42 and another 24 unaccounted for. Most of the deaths were in New Bataan in Compostela Valley.
In Manila, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said two Army platoons with possibly 66 soldiers were unaccounted for.
Benito Ramos, NDRRMC executive director, said each platoon had 33 soldiers. He said the command post of Charlie Company of the 66th Infantry Battalion at Barangay (village) Andap in New Bataan was reportedly washed away in a flash flood.
Contact with the platoons had not been established as of 4 p.m.
But Gen. Ariel Bernardo, commander of the 10th Infantry Division, told the Inquirer by phone that reports reaching him indicated only six soldiers were missing from the two platoons.
‘Totally unexpected’
Gov. Arturo Uy of Compostela Valley confirmed in a GMA News TV interview that 33 people drowned in New Bataan town. Uy said the bodies were retrieved at 5:30 p.m.
“It was totally unexpected,” Uy said. Flooding reached the barangay hall and the health center that were supposed to be on high ground.
“We never expected the waters to be that strong, the rescue team was only able to enter the area at 4:30 p.m.,” he said.
In the neighboring Compostela town, Provincial Board Member Neri Barte reported a woman and her two children were killed in a landslide.
Davao Oriental Gov. Corazon Malanyaon said four people were confirmed dead while 24 others were feared to have also been killed when Pablo hit the province at dawn on Tuesday.
“Of the 29, four have been confirmed. The rest, we still have to verify with reports coming from the ground,” Malanyaon told the Inquirer by phone.
The reports, the governor said, came from social welfare offices and police officers in Boston, Manay, Baganga, Caraga and Cateel towns.
“This is very depressing,” Malanyaon said.
She added that it was impossible for them to check on the reports yesterday because the roads were impassable due to landslides and fallen trees along the road leading to the towns.
1 soldier killed
The NDRRMC report of fatalities included Erlinda Balante of Manay town, Davao Oriental, Jigger Gomonit, 30, of Panao, Misamis Oriental, Elberto Daniel, 23, of Lazi, Siquijor, and 1st Sergeant Olivarez of the 10th Infantry Division.
Ramos said Olivarez was washed away along with his company commander, identified as Lieutenant Deazeta, after a flash flood hit their temporary command post at Barangay Andap at around 3 p.m. Deazeta was rescued but remains unconscious, Ramos said.
The soldiers’ first names were not immediately available.
The military command also reported power outages and communication interruptions because of fallen electrical outposts and power lines.
Packing peak slightly weakened center winds of 160 kilometers per hour, gusting up to 195 kph, the typhoon that was internationally called “Bopha” struck before dawn Tuesday at Baganga town in Davao Oriental, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).
With a diameter of 500 km, the typhoon swept across the midsection of Mindanao, slightly below the path Tropical Storm “Sendong” took a year ago, before veering west northwest toward the southern Visayas region. Sendong killed over 1,500 people.
As of 4 p.m., the eye of the typhoon was located 60 km southeast of Dumaguete City, Pagasa said. It was forecast to continue moving west northwest at 24 kph, maintaining its peak strength.
Port authorities in Dumaguete said a ferry with six crewmen was missing.
The Philippine National Red Cross (PNRC) said initial reports showed that 8,400 families were evacuated to safer ground in Davao Oriental, Iligan, Cagayan de Oro, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur and Leyte.
More than 3,430 passengers of 93 interisland vessels were stranded in 16 major sea ports, including those in Manila and parts of the Visayas and Mindanao, the Philippine Coast Guard said.
In Davao Oriental, where Pablo made landfall, residents said the wind was so strong it sent coconut trees falling like logs cut by chainsaws.
Flordeliz Bantolinao, a teacher in Baganga, Davao Oriental, said a neighbor died in a house crushed by a coconut tree. Bantolinao said, by her estimate, 90 percent of houses in her village, Baculin, had either been destroyed or damaged.
Coconut trees felled
Bantolinao said in a phone interview that in a 10-hectare plantation in her village, all the coconut trees were felled.
She said other villages in Baganga, especially in the town center, could have suffered the same fate, if not worse, but she had no way of knowing for sure because the roads leading to the villages and the center of town had been blocked by fallen trees.
“Everything is gone—houses, crops,” Bantolinao said. She said the typhoon victims urgently needed food.
Baganga, which faces the Pacific Ocean, is some 100 kilometers from the capital city of Mati.
Emmalyn Oliveros of the Davao Oriental civil defense office, said the extent of damage in the province could not be known immediately because of downed communications.
Oliveros confirmed the death of a 5-year-old child, Errol Lintuan, of Barangay Tubaon in Tarragona town. Lintuan was killed when a tree fell on his family’s house around 5 a.m. Tuesday.
In Cebu City, civil defense authorities said a 23-year-old man died after a coconut tree struck him as he was driving his motorcycle in Lazi town, Siquijor.
By 2 p.m. Tuesday, officials in Davao Oriental had moved 856 families to evacuation centers.
In Tarragona, roofs were torn off houses, according to Vivencio Anislag of the municipal office.
25,000 flee in CDO
In Cagayan de Oro, the shrill sound of sirens warned residents of impending danger when the Cagayan River started to overflow its banks past 2 p.m. The sound of sirens combined with the pealing of church bells when water in the river rose 10 feet beyond its normal level.
While most residents had moved to evacuation centers by the time Pablo struck, many lingered by the riverbanks to watch the river’s water rise, prompting officials to send in policemen to forcibly move the kibitzers out of harm’s way.
The city information office said at least 25,000 people had been moved to 51 evacuation centers.
Willing to evacuate
Unlike when Sendong struck, residents of some places in the path of Pablo knew of the dangers that faced them, and were more willing to submit to preemptive evacuation, officials said.
In Agusan del Sur, two persons were injured when a tree fell on their house in Bayugan City.
Thousands of residents in Tacloban City, Leyte and St. Bernard, Southern Leyte, were evacuated as a preemptive measure. In Bacolod City, residents in coastal areas have packed their belongings.
Tacloban City Mayor Alfred Romualdez said that 247 families, or about 1,214 persons from seven barangays had been evacuated since Monday night to the Tacloban City Convention Center.
The Coast Guard in Legazpi City said a 6-meter storm surge hit the shorelines of Catanduanes, preventing vessels from docking at Virac port.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


There would be, but since water weighs more and is denser the pumps that are able to pump the oil may not be able to pump the water. Plus you have to factor in the viscosity of the liquids.

The water might be classified as hazardous waste after going through an oil pipeline.
Quoting JustPlantIt:

Holy s*****t. Now this is close to home and no news on major media, where did you get this? This is way over the top! Please send a link. Thanks.


Link
Quoting AussieStorm:
Mother Nature doesn't know the calender, She starts when she wants to start, like some women. lol


why do we have june 1st then?
Quoting JustPlantIt:
A. Yes. Might just make a difference to the climate change and warming. Storms seem to be happening sooner and data should be kept earlier.


I agree
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


why do we have june 1st then?

Ask NOAA/NHC that.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Ask NOAA/NHC that.


I should
‘So, that’s what a typhoon is like’

DAVAO CITY—For the first time, people in the coastal towns of Davao Oriental saw for themselves what a typhoon was like.
“Even from the sound alone, it seemed like the wind wanted to eat us alive,” said Juvy Tanio, assistant of Mayor Michelle Rabat of Mati City in Davao Oriental.
Except for the Surigao provinces that face the Pacific Ocean, the rest of Mindanao is not often visited by storms, with only six typhoons making landfall in the area in the past 15 years, according to data from the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center compiled by The Manila Observatory.
Tanio said he was surprised to find the roofs of houses in the neighborhood were gone and trees knocked down.
“So, that’s what a typhoon is like,” said Tanio, who said it was his first time to experience being in the midst of a typhoon.
Between 1945 and 2010, only 35 typhoons made landfall in Mindanao, or about one every two years. An average of 20 storms or typhoons hit the country each year.
In September 1984, Supertyphoon “Nitang” (international name: “Ike”) battered Mindanao, with wind speeds of up to 220 kilometers per hour, the worst typhoon to hit the island in recent memory. Nitang killed more than 1,300 people.
Mindanao’s location near the equator makes it less likely to be hit by typhoons, according to experts. That was when global warming had not ushered in stronger typhoons in the country over the past few years and somehow pushed down the paths of certain storms down to the Visayas and Mindanao.
In December last year, Tropical Storm “Sendong” killed at least 1,268 people in Northern Mindanao and the Visayas, mostly in Cagayan de Oro and Iligan City. Most of the fatalities, who lived along waterways, drowned.
Never-heard sound
Tanio said people were still grumbling on Monday afternoon because it was “too hot.” It never felt like there was an approaching typhoon. Rain fell during the night. The nightmare started before dawn Tuesday.
“When the wind started to howl at 3 a.m., nobody dared to speak,” Tanio said. “Everyone was so quiet, we never heard that sound before.”
Davao Oriental’s Tarragona town, which faces the Pacific Ocean, was among those badly battered when the typhoon made landfall Tuesday morning, forcing the evacuation of close to 300 families.
“I live near the shore, so I’m used to big waves and strong winds,” said Vivencio Anislag, a resident of Tarragona. “But this one is something different, a storm is a different thing.”
At least one electric post and 14 trees were felled in Davao City.
Investment come-on gone
The city’s investment come-on as a typhoon-free area is no longer true.
“Scary,” said Patrick Ronolo, a student at Davao Oriental State College of Science and Technology.
“The wind was really strong,” he said.
“This is the first time we experienced anything like this,” said Flordeliz Bantolinao, a teacher at Baculin National High School in Baganga, Davao Oriental, where Typhoon “Pablo” made its landfall.
She said until Tuesday, she had never seen coconut trees falling down because of strong winds.



FAITH OUT OF THE MUD A girl retrieves a statue of the Sto. Niño and cleans it of mud and grime after landslides hit her home due to nonstop rains brought by Typhoon “Pablo” in Compostela town, Compostela Valley province, in Mindanao on Tuesday. AFP
Quoting AussieStorm:
More Typhoon Pablo Photo's....



























great pics indeed aussie
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I should

Isn't June 1st the meteorological start of Summer there, hence that Hurricane season starts June 1st?
Is that Levi?????


Quoting AussieStorm:


Link
Thanks... comments were what I was thinking here!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Isn't June 1st the meteorological start of Summer there, hence that Hurricane season starts June 1st?


Im not sure
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Holy s*****t. Now this is close to home and no news on major media, where did you get this? This is way over the top! Please send a link. Thanks. NY Times... still not on a major network.


Not really.

Louisianians having been paying a monthly Katrina fee on the electric bill ever since 2005.

Those guys are lucky so far. Just wait. This will probably become a monthly charge indefinitely. Entergy got away with it here. I bet those companies will eventually pull it off too.
of note...

Winter season/DOOM starts or happens on DEC 21....17 days from now.

Good thing my birthday is 4 days earlier

Quoting RTSplayer:


Not really.

Louisianians having been paying a monthly Katrina fee on the electric bill ever since 2005.

Those guys are lucky so far. Just wait. This will probably become a monthly charge indefinitely. Entergy got away with it here. I bet those companies will eventually pull it off too.
I seriously need to go off the grid.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Ask NOAA/NHC that.

I expect they decided on having a hurricane "season" to help raise awareness. So they picked days that seemed reasonable.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It has been a long time since I've made a poll, so here goes one.

Q: Should the Atlantic hurricane season start date be pushed back from June 1 to May 15?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Makes no difference to me
C. It really doesn't matter to me....The date is just a number.... Here in south Florida I think we all are aware of a pending storm no matter what date. I actually have friends call me and ask me what I think about a particular storm. I try not to get to exact, LOL. There will be people that choose not to leave in May ,and people that will choose not to leave in June with a storm on our doorsteps.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Is that Levi?????


I highly doubt it.
Quoting JustPlantIt:

This is crazy!!! Water will be like gold.


Indeed, the frenzied rush of oil companies scrambling to buy up water rights in the western US is very reminiscent of gold rush times:

"In preparation for future oil shale mining projects near the Rocky Mountains, six oil companies have gained rights to billions of gallons of water in the American West, potentially jeopardizing water supplies throughout the region, according to a new report by Western Resource Advocates [pdf], an environmental group. It is still preliminary to speculate on the implications of the findings, but many are concerned that if the companies put their rights to use, water will be shifted away from agriculture and community use."

Source
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
of note...

Winter season/DOOM starts or happens on DEC 21....17 days from now.

Good thing my birthday is 4 days earlier
I 'm hoping for the doom. Like the fact that I might survive and start over with no taxes here:) A BIG Christmas present if it were to happen!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
of note...

Winter season/DOOM starts or happens on DEC 21....17 days from now.

Good thing my birthday is 4 days earlier

boohoo. my birthday is 2 days after. I'll never see my 37th Birthday. lol
Quoting JustPlantIt:

I hoping for the doom. Like the fact that I might survive and start over with no taxes here:) A BIG Christmas present if it were to happen!

There'd be no money either.
Quoting AussieStorm:

boohoo. my birthday is 2 days after. I'll never see my 37th Birthday. lol
I took all of my grandchildrens toys back to Target.... Look at the money I have saved... Now to go buy 38 bottles of Bacardi rum.

Quoting AussieStorm:

boohoo. my birthday is 2 days after. I'll never see my 37th Birthday. lol
Aaaah, but you might too:)
We need a few more hurricane seasons to start in May before extending the season. Don't rush into it.

I hate all this change. Where is meteorology headed nowadays? :/

Quoting bappit:

There'd be no money either.
I wouldn't need it.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Isn't June 1st the meteorological start of Summer there, hence that Hurricane season starts June 1st?

The meteorological start of summer here is between June 20th and June 22nd
Quoting JustPlantIt:

Aaaah, but you might too:)

It's my daughters 7th Birthday this Sunday.


Over a thousand evacuees cram inside the Surigao City Auditorium in this picture taken by Bayan Patroller Harvey Bing on Tuesday. Surigao is one of the worst-hit areas so far, with 33,521 persons forced to flee their homes due to floods.
Impressive looking tornado warned storm NE of Corpus Christi:

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Impressive looking tornado warned storm NE of Corpus Christi:


You took the words right outta my mouth :p
Quoting Doppler22:

The meteorological start of summer here is between June 20th and June 22nd


That's the astronomical start to summer.
Sorry I can't translate this. Just watch the video.



Quoting wxgeek723:
We need a few more hurricane seasons to start in May before extending the season. Don't rush into it.

I hate all this change. Where is meteorology headed nowadays? :/

The number of pre-season tropical cyclones has doubled from the 1990s to the 2000s. I think that's case enough for an earlier start date.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It has been a long time since I've made a poll, so here goes one.

Q: Should the Atlantic hurricane season start date be pushed back from June 1 to May 15?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Makes no difference to me
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It has been a long time since I've made a poll, so here goes one.

Q: Should the Atlantic hurricane season start date be pushed back from June 1 to May 15?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Makes no difference to me


I think A(YES),because of the formation of some TS in late may, for example BERYL and Alberto this year, maybe in the next years when the formation early storms in May becomes more frequently............BECAUSE THE GLOBAL WARMING or the years when the SST are above the average
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The number of pre-season tropical cyclones has doubled from the 1990s to the 2000s. I think that's case enough for an earlier start date.


Is this a legitimate debate or just an idea that arose on WU?

Quoting AussieStorm:

It's my daughters 7th Birthday this Sunday.


Over a thousand evacuees cram inside the Surigao City Auditorium in this picture taken by Bayan Patroller Harvey Bing on Tuesday. Surigao is one of the worst-hit areas so far, with 33,521 persons forced to flee their homes due to floods.
Ooops, sorry. You will all survive. Actually nothing will happen and I will still be learning more about weather! Happy B-day to a 7 year old. I have two girls, one is 19 and one 16. THEY KNOW EVERTHING! Beware:)


Flood in Acasia-Carmen, CDO. Houses below rotunda bridge #Typhoon Pablo.
Quoting Bielle:


A further question from someone who knows very little science: water and oil don't mix. Is there any way of using the existing oil pipelines (or some of them at some times) to transport water, either concurrently or at alternating times? Presumably it all has to be filtered anyway . . .


No. Look at the issues when there is an oil spill in the ocean. Oil and water don't mix (well), but separating them cleanly is a very difficult problem.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The number of pre-season tropical cyclones has doubled from the 1990s to the 2000s. I think that's case enough for an earlier start date.

The EPAC starts May 15 right?
Quoting wxgeek723:


Is this a legitimate debate or just an idea that arose on WU?

Just an idea. It has probably been discussed a few times internally, however, and will likely continue to be a topic of discussion in the future, even more so now that tropical cyclones seem to be developing sooner and more frequently.

Quoting AussieStorm:

The EPAC starts May 15 right?

Yes.
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
_______________________

California storm rainfall


click for larger image
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The number of pre-season tropical cyclones has doubled from the 1990s to the 2000s. I think that's case enough for an earlier start date.
I agree with that wx13....But I really don't get worked up about hurricane season here in south Florida until the end of July. But that's just me.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Is that Levi?????



Is that the one from last winter?
Mesmerising
BEAUTIFUL waterspout off the coast of Italy a couple of days ago
Quoting Slamguitar:


Is that the one from last winter?

Nope that was taken today, Tuesday your time.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Sorry I can't translate this. Just watch the video.





I love the English words that drop right into the Tagalog: hanging bridge, stranded, high winds, yesterday and evacuation centres.
Quoting Bielle:


I love the English words that drop right into the Tagalog: hanging bridge, stranded, high winds, yesterday and evacuation centres.

We call that Taglish, mix of Tagalog and English.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
_______________________

California storm rainfall


click for larger image
Over 25" of rain... are these totals correct? Amazing if they are. Midwest could use some of this rain!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Nope that was taken today, Tuesday your time.


Oh, I remember the same two people posing in front of that sign last year. I think the temp was in the -40's then though.
Quoting Slamguitar:


Oh, I remember the same two people posing in front of that sign last year. I think the temp was in the -40's then though.

Yeah I remember that Photo also. I thought it was -48F from memory.
Quoting JustPlantIt:

I wouldn't need it.


There'd be no technology. No electricity. No cars. No gasoline. No roads. No police. No firemen. No water service. No sewer service. No internet. No infrastructure. No cellphone service. No emergency medical services. No advanced medicines. No advanced food production. No refrigeration. No garbage service. No schools. And on and on and on....

You also seem perfectly content with letting millions suffer and die, just for the chance that you survive and don't pay taxes.

You aren't, by chance, a CEO are you?
still hit 79 here behind weak front
Quoting Xyrus2000:


There'd be no technology. No electricity. No cars. No gasoline. No roads. No police. No firemen. No water service. No sewer service. No internet. No infrastructure. No cellphone service. No emergency medical services. No advanced medicines. No advanced food production. No refrigeration. No garbage service. No schools. And on and on and on....

You also seem perfectly content with letting millions suffer and die, just for the chance that you survive and don't pay taxes.

You aren't, by chance, a CEO are you?


That was funny, that last sentence.
Quoting stormchaser19:


I think A(YES),because of the formation of some TS in late may, for example BERYL and Alberto this year, maybe in the next years when the formation early storms in May becomes more frequently............BECAUSE THE GLOBAL WARMING or the years when the SST are above the average
Unless it becomes a frequent thing like for example 5 straight years then yes but until then I see no reason. the last two years has seen their first name storm in June and 2009 in August not counting that td.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


There'd be no technology. No electricity. No cars. No gasoline. No roads. No police. No firemen. No water service. No sewer service. No internet. No infrastructure. No cellphone service. No emergency medical services. No advanced medicines. No advanced food production. No refrigeration. No garbage service. No schools. And on and on and on....

You also seem perfectly content with letting millions suffer and die, just for the chance that you survive and don't pay taxes.

You aren't, by chance, a CEO are you?


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

The best laugh I've had in days.
As of 2:00 PM, 04 December 2012, the Municipalities of Bubong, Ramain,
Mulondo, and Taraka in Lanao Del Sur are reportedly affected by flooding.

As of 1:40 PM. 04 December 2012, eight (8) Barangays in the Municipality of
Poona Bayabao were reportedly flooded namely: Gata, Cadayonan, Dimayon,
Tandiong, Cairan Rogan, and Punud.

A 2Go Shipping vessel bound from Manila to Bacolod was reportedly stranded
at about 2:20 PM, 03 December 2012. The vessel was advised by MARINA for
an anchorage due to the ongoing public storm warning signal. There were
1,098 passengers on board and was provided with purified drinking water and
noodle soup by the Shipping Line Management.

At about 1:45 PM, 04 December 2012, a whirlwind/tornado strucked Sitio
Fishing Village, Brgy Poblacion, Alicia, Zamboanga Sibugay damaging the
roof of five (5) houses with 20 dependents, and one (1) warehouse with 13
families / 78 dependents. The victims are evacuated at the Municipal
Gymnasium.

On or about 5:15 PM, 04 December 2012, a vessel sunk at the vicinity of Maria,
Siquijor. PCG Dumaguete personnel proceeded to the scene to verify the
incident. According to the investigation, MV Euro 3 drifted from the anchorage
area to the cliff side of Maria, Siquijor which caused the ship to run aground.
All of the sixteen (16) crew members jumped overboard and swam to the
shoreline. Two (2) crew members went missing.

As of 6:00 AM, 05 December 2012, the total number of population affected in 132
Barangays / 58 municipalities / 8 cities in 13 provinces of Regions VIII, X, XI and
CARAGA is 24,380 families / 120,627 persons.

The total number of population currently served inside and outside the evacuation
centers is 21,560 families / 106,730 persons
INSIDE 162 ECs 17,678 families / 86,912 persons

A total of 439 damaged houses were reported in Regions X(10) and CARAGA. Of
which, 422 were partially damaged while 17 were totally damaged.

From NDRRMC Update Sitrep No. 08 re Effects of Typhoon "PABLO" (BOPHA) as of 05 December 2012, 6:00AM
Quoting Bielle:


A further question from someone who knows very little science: water and oil don't mix. Is there any way of using the existing oil pipelines (or some of them at some times) to transport water, either concurrently or at alternating times? Presumably it all has to be filtered anyway . . .


Quoting Xyrus2000:


No. Look at the issues when there is an oil spill in the ocean. Oil and water don't mix (well), but separating them cleanly is a very difficult problem.


Water and oil also have very different impacts on pumping equipment. I'm guessing the pumping equipment designed to move oil takes advantage of the fact that oil is a natural lubricant and helps machinery resist corrosion. Water, of course, is a poor lubricant and actually causes corrosion. Then there's the viscosity difference...

Not to say the pumping machinery couldn't be adapted, but I imagine these large pumping systems are quite specialized and there would be numerous (if not insurmountable) challenges to designing a system to regularly oscillate between handling these two very different liquids.
Temperature in Fairbanks AK -35F at 2:45pm

That's cold
Are you using the old(classic) format of WU or the new version of WU.

A) Old
B) New

I am using the old version. Has less problems.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


There'd be no technology. No electricity. No cars. No gasoline. No roads. No police. No firemen. No water service. No sewer service. No internet. No infrastructure. No cellphone service. No emergency medical services. No advanced medicines. No advanced food production. No refrigeration. No garbage service. No schools. And on and on and on....

You also seem perfectly content with letting millions suffer and die, just for the chance that you survive and don't pay taxes.

You aren't, by chance, a CEO are you?
No... I have no TV only internet service. My water is very local within a half mile and I also have a well on the property. I have No sewer, only a dysfuctional septic along a very pristine stream that has native trout. I DO have a 2 hole outhouse! Cell phones do not work here and I do not have one. Police... who would need them, really it would be every man for himself. Refrigeration.... that is called having a smoker to keep meat. Garbage... I recycle and I can still burn. Schools, I can homeschool too. Gas, I've got wood. No roads, I've got the chickens, geese and goats. AND REALLY, Technology has a way of taking everyone's money for the greedy people who think that we need it! And oh yes, my infrastructure is an old mill and house that are dated from the 1700's, not like the shacks built today. And no, I am not content with people that die. My life is about teaching others how to grow, harvest and preserve thier own food for self preserve. AND those taxes that I pay... do little for the infrastructure to my society here in this community or for that matter yours! Steal from me to pay the 1% who have. Don't cry to me and tell me that I don't know. I have my own food. AND I KNOW HOW TO COOK and live. Your mom should spank your bottom, because; yes, I am a CEO of connecting with my neighbors and helping.
PS:) So many No's... guess you are not a positive person with positive ideas, why  I will survive life more fullfilling than you.

This would be interesting to attend.
Quoting nymore:
Temperature in Fairbanks AK -35F at 2:45pm

That's cold
And it's dark nearly 22 hours a day now... When it gets that cold ice fog becomes a big problem... Lived there for 2 years
That community activity thing is annoying.
Anytime I comment anywhere for anything everybody knows.
lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It has been a long time since I've made a poll, so here goes one.

Q: Should the Atlantic hurricane season start date be pushed back from June 1 to May 15?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Makes no difference to me

I'll pick A.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
That community activity thing is annoying.
Anytime I comment anywhere for anything everybody knows.
lol.

It also erratically pauses after like 2 or 3 minutes when I don't want it to.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I took all of my grandchildrens toys back to Target.... Look at the money I have saved... Now to go buy 38 bottles of Bacardi rum.




YES!!!



Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
And it's dark nearly 22 hours a day now... When it gets that cold ice fog becomes a big problem... Lived there for 2 years


What is ice fog? How does it feel?
Quoting TomballTXPride:




YES!!!




Must of has a tonne of toys to take back.
Quoting Tango01:


What is ice fog? How does it feel?

Cold. lol
Could we be seeing the start of another La-Nina, after all it is about xmas. It has really started cooling in the last 2 or 3 weeks (Zones 1 and 2)

Sea surface anomaly map





Also Nino 3.4 index is falling

Quoting nymore:
Could we be seeing the start of another La-Nina, after all it is about xmas. It has really started cooling in the last 2 or 3 weeks

Sea surface anomaly map





Also Nino 3.4 index is falling



Two words. (BEEEEP) NO!!!!!
Quoting Tango01:


What is ice fog? How does it feel?


Well, it's just like regular fog... but ice crystals instead of water droplets. When it's that cold (i.e. -20F or lower) it feels like burning when you breathe it in. A little bit like how the CO2 from soda will burn your nose if you burp it. I'm not sure how it works, but the first couple breaths are the worst... then somehow your body adjusts. But your nose hairs will freeze almost instantly below -20F and they don't really unfreeze until you warm up. I ended up breathing through my mouth a lot, although that starts to make your throat a little sore.

A few years ago I was working in Fairbanks, Alaska in January and one morning the temp was something like -30F with ice fog. The hotel hostess REFUSED to let me walk ~8 blocks to my job site... insisted I take a cab. Later that day when I was done working I defied her advice and decided to walk back to the hotel and take some pictures along the way. I was dressed in full winter gear (thermal underwear, double gloves, wool socks with liners, the works). Because I knew I had a warm place to go to I stayed out until my feet and hands were sore and difficult to move... it took about 25 minutes.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Must of has a tonne of toys to take back.



Damn right, Aussie. And she just gave this tired Mama an idea.

Sip

Ahhh....

Now when I was just a little boy standin' to my Daddy's knee
My Poppa said son don't let the man get you do what he done to me
'cause he'll get you 'cause he'll get you now now.

I can remember the fourth of July runnin' through the backwood bare.
And I can still hear my old hound dog barkin' chasin' down a hoodoo there
Chasin' down a hoodoo there.

Born on the bayou
Born on the bayou
Born on the bayou.


:)
Quoting MrMixon:


Well, it's just like regular fog... but ice crystals instead of water droplets. When it's that cold (i.e. -20F or lower) it feels like burning when you breathe it in. A little bit like how the CO2 from soda will burn your nose if you burp it. I'm not sure how it works, but the first couple breaths are the worst... then somehow your body adjusts. But your nose hairs will freeze almost instantly below -20F and they don't really unfreeze until you warm up. I ended up breathing through my mouth a lot, although that starts to make your throat a little sore.

A few years ago I was working in Fairbanks, Alaska in January and one morning the temp was something like -30F with ice fog. The hotel hostess REFUSED to let me walk ~8 blocks to my job site... insisted I take a cab. Later that day when I was done working I defied her advice and decided to walk back to the hotel and take some pictures along the way. I was dressed in full winter gear (thermal underwear, double gloves, wool socks with liners, the works). Because I knew I had a warm place to go to I stayed out until my feet and hands were sore and difficult to move... it took about 25 minutes.


Thank you. Good description. I lived in cold places but not that cold so I never experienced it.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Two words. (BEEEEP) NO!!!!!


Maybe bad news Aussie.

While not strong the SOI is also positive



You know what 2 months in a row means right
For those of you with kids...you have to watch the classic Rudolph on CBS at 8:00 p.m. EST.

What is the Probability of a White Christmas? Find that Answer and Other Christmas Climatology Here...
Mr.Mixon,

You guys had me laughing over here! When the islanders ask me to explain how -30 or -40 feels, I tell them exactly what you just said. The only other thing that I would add is that horrible squeaking sound like like two pieces of styrofoam being rubbed together when walking on the snow. That's almost as bad as fingernails on a chalkboard!

Lindy
Quoting AussieStorm:
What is the Probability of a White Christmas? Here...


For me over 95%
Quoting nymore:


Maybe bad news Aussie.

While not strong the SOI is also positive


A wet winter is ok but not a wet summer.
JFK airport has had zero visibility for the last 4 hours. Arriving flights average delay over 40 mins.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For those of you with kids...you have to watch the classic Rudolph on CBS at 8:00 p.m. EST.

Love the 'Humble Bumble'!
This happened here in Sydney yesterday. The little sister is her big sisters guardian angel.

Another shot from the ISS.

Quoting AussieStorm:
What is the Probability of a White Christmas? Find that Answer and Other Christmas Climatology Here...

Not enough of a chance is the chance for me! :p
Another great TRMM pass of Bopha today. Click pic for a small quicktime. There is a lot of extremely heavy rain in the CDO.

Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
Mr.Mixon,

You guys had me laughing over here! When the islanders ask me to explain how -30 or -40 feels, I tell them exactly what you just said. The only other thing that I would add is that horrible squeaking sound like like two pieces of styrofoam being rubbed together when walking on the snow. That's almost as bad as fingernails on a chalkboard!

Lindy


Oh yeah, can't forget that SQREEK SQREEK SQREEK of your feet in the snow... the styrofoam analogy is a good one. It's hard to describe the sound the car tires make as they drive past... the same sort of squeek/crunch sound, but constant.

It was also surreal to see all the parked cars running with no drivers inside in Fairbanks. Unless you have an engine block heater and a way to plug it in you have to leave your engine running to keep your oil from freezing. Since grocery parking lots don't usually have places to plug in, most people just leave the engine running while they get their groceries, etc. I asked somebody about car theft... they shrugged and said "there's no place to SELL a stolen car around here. The only place to go is Anchorage and it's a 6.5 hour drive... and there's only one road to get you there... so it'd be trivial for cops to catch you."

Quoting Bielle:


That was funny, that last sentence.
So, he did you too. Made me mad.
Gave him an earful of Irish/Aries here!!!!!!!!!!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #75
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
9:00 AM JST December 5 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sulu Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (975 hPa) located at 9.8N 119.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 11.5N 116.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 12.5N 114.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 12.9N 113.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea

Quoting AussieStorm:


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

The best laugh I've had in days.
This person is not sane and I responded to this post......

Quoting JustPlantIt:

This person is not sane and I responded to this post......
This sucks.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Is that Levi?????

Sure hope he's not the 1 wearing the bra....

evening all...
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
That community activity thing is annoying.
Anytime I comment anywhere for anything everybody knows.
lol.
I'm starting to think it's causing me problems as a script error keeps slowing the page download of late...

AussieStorm,

Why don't you like a wet summer?

I thought you liked it hot and wet?

--

BTW - I get a kick out of the youtube videos of people throwing hot water/coffee in the air in Fairbanks and seeing it freeze before it hits the ground. And blowing bubbles only to have them freeze/crystalize like xmas tree ornaments.

Quoting Dakster:
AussieStorm,

Why don't you like a wet summer?

I thought you liked it hot and wet?

--

BTW - I get a kick out of the youtube videos of people throwing hot water/coffee in the air in Fairbanks and seeing it freeze before it hits the ground. And blowing bubbles only to have them freeze/crystalize like xmas tree ornaments.
On the hot and wet note..... HA gotta go to bed. Nice thought for those of us who think:)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For those of you with kids...you have to watch the classic Rudolph on CBS at 8:00 p.m. EST.



Geoffrey. I just sat the two older one in front of the televsion set now. And I have my other shows on so all is good.

Thanks for the heads up!!



"Record high temperature set at Houston intercontinental...

a record high temperature of 83 degrees was set at Houston intercontinental today. This breaks the old record of 82 set in 1998."

But we got some rain when a front came through, at least some people did.
Quoting JustPlantIt:

This person is not sane and I responded to this post......

Still it was a good laugh.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
And it's dark nearly 22 hours a day now... When it gets that cold ice fog becomes a big problem... Lived there for 2 years



Yikes, PBW.

Had to be better than Xenia though, Huh??

That must have been horrible.

I am not following you.




Quoting Dakster:
AussieStorm,

Why don't you like a wet summer?

I thought you liked it hot and wet?

--

BTW - I get a kick out of the youtube videos of people throwing hot water/coffee in the air in Fairbanks and seeing it freeze before it hits the ground. And blowing bubbles only to have them freeze/crystalize like xmas tree ornaments.

I like the hissing sound pots of water make as it freezes, but I haven't seen the bubble videos. Link?
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I took all of my grandchildrens toys back to Target.... Look at the money I have saved... Now to go buy 38 bottles of Bacardi rum.



Party at PBW's!
Quoting Dakster:
AussieStorm,

Why don't you like a wet summer?

I thought you liked it hot and wet?

--

BTW - I get a kick out of the youtube videos of people throwing hot water/coffee in the air in Fairbanks and seeing it freeze before it hits the ground. And blowing bubbles only to have them freeze/crystalize like xmas tree ornaments.

we've all seen what happens when Australia gets a La Nina season. Hence why I don't want one.
Dzalinda, Russia (Airport)
Updated: 1 hr 26 min 57 sec ago -55 °F
Fog
Humidity: 64%
Dew Point: -59 °F
Wind: Calm

Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 30.75 in (Rising)
Visibility: 31.0 miles
Elevation: 203 ft


Yow. If that were Montana, I would be hugely disappointed with Global Warming!

As it goes, though, it is 51 (+) where I am now (Helena MT).

GreenHOUSE! GreenHOUSE! GreenHOUSE!

May not be politic to say, but some places GW is kinder to than others. That certainly seems to've been true in this region the last 5 years or so: Milder wetter summers and milder wetter winters. It hasn't, here, been much past 20 below and that quite rare, in winter. And I haven't seen 100 degree plus in as many years, though conceivably a day got past me. Ten years and so ago there would be endless days of high 90's and going to 105, which at this altitude, is stressful on just about everything.
345. beell
Quoting bappit:
"Record high temperature set at Houston intercontinental...

a record high temperature of 83 degrees was set at Houston intercontinental today. This breaks the old record of 82 set in 1998."

But we got some rain when a front came through, at least some people did.


Count Dec 1st and 2nd as records at the big airport also, b. About .10" rain here in the eastern part of Harris Co.
Howdy folks..Is their any cold air in the pipe line anytime soon thanks...






















Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
That community activity thing is annoying.
Anytime I comment anywhere for anything everybody knows.
lol.

i paused mine right away
Wow... & to have it link back to this blog. Masters didn't even mention climate change causing Bopha. More at that link.

Philippine Climate Negotiator: 'Super Typhoon' Bopha Shows Climate Change Is Real
Head of Philippines climate delegation at COP18 says urgent action, new world order are needed


What is needed is nothing short of a new world order, he charges.

"What we need to come to terms is how the whole world is pursuing development. Climate change is a development issue more than an environmental issue, or maybe equally an environmental issue and development issue. So, sustainability is the key here. And all of the things that we are seeing around the world, these are manifestations of unsustainability of practices, of short-sighted practices. And we must be able to arrive at a world order that addresses all of these things."

Meteorologist Dr. Jeff Masters has reported on the unusual and historic nature of Bopha, writing that the storm was "the strongest typhoon ever recorded to hit Mindanao, which rarely sees strong typhoons due to its position close to the Equator," and was the second most southerly Category 5 typhoon recorded.



~I like the Community Activity on the side:)

& Aussie~ B. new WU..easily. Like the new weather toys & such that comes with. When I'm nostalgic there is always the waybackmachine. Here's is WU in 1998..(back when all I could do was lurk since blogs weren't even dreamed of yet) you can click around on the timeline up top there, through the years.
Quoting bayoubug:
Howdy folks..Is their any cold air in the pipe line anytime soon thanks...
























It looks like it

Thank God Bumbles bounce!
The Moon made an appearance in the GOES 13 Visible Satellite tonight at sunset, check it out!!

If you don't like that Community Activity thing just use the old site.


GOES East caught a little something extra today on visible...
Quoting VaStormGuy:


GOES East caught a little something extra today on visible...


That picture is edited, here's the actual picture they don't want you to see. ;)

Taken 21:15UTC, GOES-E CONUS view.


What do you guys think.. UFO?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That picture is edited, here's the actual picture they don't want you to see. ;)

Taken 21:15UTC, GOES-E CONUS view.


What do you guys think.. UFO?

I see a wig and a weird face...
Quoting wxchaser97:

I see a wig and a weird face...


Nah, it used to be Grothar's residence, they threw him out though.. down actually, into a reactor core.

I kid, I kid ;)

But yea, GOES-E often catches the Moon like that, saw it earlier before. What would be great if GOES-14 could get a shot like that, you can see the craters in detail even.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That picture is edited, here's the actual picture they don't want you to see. ;)

Taken 21:15UTC, GOES-E CONUS view.


What do you guys think.. UFO?


Well.... that's no moon...
Quoting VaStormGuy:


Well.... that's no moon...

...it's a space station!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That picture is edited, here's the actual picture they don't want you to see. ;)

Taken 21:15UTC, GOES-E CONUS view.


What do you guys think.. UFO?


Looks like a death star under construction...


Just over 16 days so this kinda makes sense.
Nothing to worry about...just move on...

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Nothing to worry about...just move on...



Quoting VaStormGuy:


Well.... that's no moon...


Or is it?? Just a little displaced.


Quoting Slamguitar:


Looks like a death star under construction...


Just over 16 days so this kinda makes sense.


Stay on targ...I mean topic!
Quoting JustPlantIt:

Over 25" of rain... are these totals correct? Amazing if they are. Midwest could use some of this rain!


yes...very likely to happen...


Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #12
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
11:00 AM PhST December 5 2012
==============================

Typhoon "PABLO" has slowed down and weakened slightly and is now over northern Palawan.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [976 hPa] located at 10.7°N 119.4°E or 120 km northeast of Puerto Princesa City has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots gusting up to 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #3
-----------

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Northern Palawan
2. Calamian Grp. of Islands

Signal Warning #2
-----------

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Rest of Palawan

Visayas Region
---------------
1. Rest of Palawan

Signal Warning #1
----------

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Orriental Mindoro
2. Occidental Mindoro
3. Lubang Is.

Visayas Region
=============
1. Antique

Additional Information
========================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-18 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #3 and signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this typhoon.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of Luzon and Western Visayas.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 pm today.
So random thought. Does the onset of extreme weather as a result of global warming originate from the consequences of the actual warming itself, or is it just the change in climate? I guess what I'm asking is, if say we had 'global cooling' occurring, would weather be getting less extreme?

Imagine global cooling anyway. That would be something. Cities smashing all time records for their coolest summer on record, ridiculously intense cold waves, plethoras of snowy winters. Blah, maybe GW isn't that bad, LOL. And I could only imagine what that would do to hurricane season.

Oh and does anybody know how high the gauge read during the peak of Sandy at Sandy Hook? Given the geography and the angle of approach, it would be reasonable to assume that Sandy Hook was swallowed by storm surge.
Apparently the Victoria's Secret fashion show is on, and I didn't know about it. I think I just lost my man card.
please please tell me someone out there made a gif of the moon sweeping by on the GOES visible image.
At least Vietnam will be spared from Bopha!!!
Volume II of my series on the 2012 hurricane season is now up, I only did to Gordon, though I had planned on going all the way up to Leslie, but time is against it so I had to do a follow up, Enjoy!
Link
Quoting wxgeek723:

Oh and does anybody know how high the gauge read during the peak of Sandy at Sandy Hook? Given the geography and the angle of approach, it would be reasonable to assume that Sandy Hook was swallowed by storm surge.


Sandy Hook did get a bit of surge. Lot of houses wiped off it. The twin light house looked fine. You can go here & zoom in on it to see the damage right after from aerial photos for Sandy Hook or really anywhere kind of coastal affected by Sandy. Pretty easy to see where the surge & houses was..
Anyone remember which storm this was, which was incredibly frustrating to forecast?

374. beell
Quoting wxgeek723:
...Oh and does anybody know how high the gauge read during the peak of Sandy at Sandy Hook? Given the geography and the angle of approach, it would be reasonable to assume that Sandy Hook was swallowed by storm surge.


From Dr. Masters bog of 11/07:



Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Sandy Hook, NJ, for Winter Storm Athena, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA's Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.4', occurring Wednesday evening. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 pm Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.2' around 1 pm Wednesday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 8.6' storm surge to Sandy Hook before their tide gauge failed, with the storm tide reaching 13.2' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.)
Quoting Thrawst:
Anyone remember which storm this was, which was incredibly frustrating to forecast?



Ernesto. Drove the blog crazy with everyone saying an eye was forming when it wasn't. Had a lot of fun before I made an account watching that.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Sandy Victims Being Hit With Downed Tree Violations, LIPA Fees

While the neighborhoods shattered by Hurricane Sandy are far from being back to normal, the faceless bureaucratic mechanisms of the City and the Long Island Power Authority seem to be kicking back in. Homeowners are being ticketed by the DOB for fallen trees on their properties, and LIPA is charging customers a "delivery fee" for returning their power, even though it was out for weeks—mainly because of the utility's incompetence.
As the New York Times put it, "the storm struck the city’s trees like a chain saw on methamphetamines," knocking down more than 8,000 in the street and many more in parks. In Queens, homeowners with downed trees say that the DOB is handing out violations that warn that they could face legal action if the trees aren't removed.
“People are stressed out, they are in a situation that is really horrible and then they got these violations,” the president of the Queens Civic Congress, Richard Hellenbrect, tells the Daily News. State Senator Tony Avella added, "This is one more example of the insensitivity sometimes of the city. They really need to retract these violations." Though the citations do not carry a monetary penalty, they stay on the books indefinitely and give the city legal recourse to act.
WNYC reports that LIPA is tacking on a delivery fee of more than $10—something ConEd and other utilities in the region have refused to do. "I'm flabbergasted," a LIPA customer in Northport says. "I just don't understand why they think it's necessary." More than half of the 86% of LIPA customers who lost power were without it for more than a week. LIPA will be refunding customers who were billed for "estimated" usage, but is sticking by the fee, calling it "the very minimum it costs LIPA to provide a 24/7 connection to the electric system." A spokesperson tells WNYC that the charge will be discussed at a meeting on Thursday.


(Bureaucracy gone made)


Mark my words!!! If the city maintains these violations, then there will be massive demonstrations from numerous folks sticking up for their rights!!!


em>The Philippines military says the death toll from Typhoon Bopha has risen to at least 94, with fears held for hundreds of missing villagers.
Sea Trial Leaves Shell's Arctic Oil-Spill Gear "Crushed Like A Beer Can"
Tropical storms that make their way into the North Atlantic, and possibly strike the East Coast of the United States, likely will become more intense during the rest of this century.

That’s the prediction of one University of Iowa researcher and his colleague as published in an early online release in the prestigious Journal of Climate, the official publication of the American Meteorological Society.

The study is a compilation of results from some of the best available computer models of climate, according to lead author Gabriele Villarini, assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering and assistant research engineer at IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering, and his colleague Gabriel Vecchi of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, N.J.

“We wanted to conduct the study because intense tropical cyclones can harm people and property,” Villarini says. “The adverse and long-lasting influence of such storms recently was demonstrated by the damage Hurricane Sandy created along the East Coast.”

The study itself examines projected changes in the North Atlantic Power Dissipation Index (PDI) using output from 17 state-of-the-art global climate models and three different potential scenarios. The PDI is an index that integrates storm intensity, duration, and frequency.

“We found that the PDI is projected to increase in the 21st century in response to both greenhouse gas increases and reductions in particulate pollution over the Atlantic over the current century. By relating these results to other findings in a paper we published May 13, 2012 in the journal Nature Climate Change, we found that, while the number of storms is not projected to increase, their intensity is,” he says.

“Moreover, our results indicate that as more carbon dioxide is emitted, the stronger the storms get, while scenarios with the most aggressive carbon dioxide mitigation show the smallest increase in intensity,” he says.

The complete manuscript, “Projected Increases in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensity from CMIP5 Models,” can be viewed at: journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-004 41.1.

The study was funded in part by the Iowa Flood Center.
AMS says that article isn't available yet.
Quoting wxgeek723:
So random thought. Does the onset of extreme weather as a result of global warming originate from the consequences of the actual warming itself, or is it just the change in climate? I guess what I'm asking is, if say we had 'global cooling' occurring, would weather be getting less extreme?

Imagine global cooling anyway. That would be something. Cities smashing all time records for their coolest summer on record, ridiculously intense cold waves, plethoras of snowy winters. Blah, maybe GW isn't that bad, LOL. And I could only imagine what that would do to hurricane season.

Oh and does anybody know how high the gauge read during the peak of Sandy at Sandy Hook? Given the geography and the angle of approach, it would be reasonable to assume that Sandy Hook was swallowed by storm surge.


Prolonged changes in extreme weather associated with climate cycles tend to manifest primarily as a result of an increase/decrease in planetary energy, which is directly related to temperature alterations. The change in the climate is a direct result of the warming, just as it was due to cooling following the eruption of Mount Tambora (in conjunction with the solar minimum) in 1816.
Quoting Slamguitar:


Or is it?? Just a little displaced.


Looks like Mimas.
Quoting hydrus:
Looks like Mimas.


That's what they want you to think. >:)






But yes, it's Mimas, the twentieth-largest moon in our solar system and a companion to Saturn.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Mother Nature doesn't know the calender.
Yes she does, actually.

Hurricanes can happen at anytime but there is certainly a period of heightened activity. Otherwise we wouldn't have a hurricane season in the first place.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yes she does, actually.

Hurricanes can happen at anytime but there is certainly a period of heightened activity. Otherwise we wouldn't have a hurricane season in the first place.
true
Quoting Slamguitar:


That's what they want you to think. >:)






But yes, it's Mimas, the twentieth-largest moon in our solar system and a companion to Saturn.
I know this. Takes about 30 years to make it around the sun. Jupiter takes 11.9 years and is my favorite. That massive planet completes a full rotation in less than ten hours, and is about 89.000 miles in diameter...Jupiter is awesome.
We actually had some stormy weather today. It almost woke me up several times. :) These were taken by awake people in Beaumont, Tx.



A cloud waterfall?

i wish the admins re move the Community Activity thing it dos nothing but get in the way
Quoting Tazmanian:
i wish the admins re move the Community Activity thing it dos nothing but get in the way

In the way of what?
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
We actually had some stormy weather today. It almost woke me up several times. :) These were taken by awake people in Beaumont, Tx.



A cloud waterfall?

I love this first pic of the lighting strike reflecting on the pond. May I copy it?
Quoting Skyepony:
AMS says that article isn't available yet.


Here.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I lo e this first pic of the lighting strike reflecting on the pond. May I copy it?


Sure. I did. lol
Here is a pic of the the fastest winds in the solar system.
Nice one of Saturn.
so, hydrus, what are we looking at? it almost seemed as if you were doing the austin powers gag...
Quoting spbloom:


Here.


Thanks for finding that. Using Power Dissipation Index (PDI), makes alot of sense. People are saying where are the cat 5s slamming shore? Here in reality we are having abnormally huge storms.. Nice to see aerosols being factored in too.
Quoting plutorising:
so, hydrus, what are we looking at? it almost seemed as if you were doing the austin powers gag...
Excellent. Thank you..:)
Cant forget the Sun..
This is global warming.
Don't forget our neighbor

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Sad News:

MORE THAN 200 DEAD IN PHILIPPINE TYPHOON
Flash floods have killed most people so far. Storm surge with all the rain in low lying areas may have caused many more deaths than reported.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Don't forget our neighbor

Andromeda.?
Quoting hydrus:
Andromeda.?


Of course :)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Sad News:

MORE THAN 200 DEAD IN PHILIPPINE TYPHOON


That's actually a lot less than it could be. Although it could (read: probably will) rise.
For those unaware, the National Hurricane Center has completed their Tropical Cyclone Report (TCR) for Hurricane Michael. There are no important changes (if at all) to the storm, and it remains a short-lived 100 kt major hurricane:

Link

Although I admit, I like how it has the designation of being only the fifth major hurricane to develop from a non-tropical disturbance in the satellite era (the others being Alicia in 1983, Diana in 1984, and Bob and Claudette in 1991).
Good to see astronomy is going strong with some folks on the blog. I have not been banned yet from posting the pics ..:)
In hindsight, Michael's development into a major hurricane at high latitudes, particularly from a non-tropical disturbance, should have been a dead giveaway that most tropical cyclone activity would be concentrated in the subtropics this year, especially after how much Ernesto failed to strengthen at more tropical latitudes. It's always easy to see things after the fact.
I enjoyed the astronomy talk, there's weather in space too, so it's slightly relevant or something like that.

Anyway, I've had enough procrastinating on studying for finals. I'm gonna catch some z's. Goodnight everyone still up!!
Long time no post for me. I am here in Luzon, the northern Philippine island where Manila sits. Local news reports two platoons of Army personnel missing in Mindinao when their temporary barracks was hit by a flash flood. A landslide last night claimed more than twenty people. Further, 33 drowned and 24 are missing in New Bataan from landfall. The worst will be tonight for several islands. The ground is already saturated and more rain is coming, meaning more landslides and floods. The terrain here is dotted with small, rugged mountains, most less than 2000 feet above the terrain, and primarily volcanic in formation. Heavy deforestation due to farming and illegal cutting have created areas highly susceptible to floods and landslides and mudslides.

In Bananga, the village head declared "%u201CEverything is gone%u2014houses, crops...%u201D and that the typhoon victims urgently needed food.

Donations can be sent to Philippine Red Cross--you can probably specify a place if the Great Recession hasn't made you a needy human being yourself. As for me--my wife and I are taking a hundred kilos of rice by bus Saturday to Batangas--the port in Luzon, and my wife has Coast Guard contacts that will get it to Bananga in Mindinao via two other islands.

The village is in utter ruins and people are still being retrieved. the Television reported a seven year old girl had lost everything and everyone in her family--sisters, brothers, parents, grandparents and two uncles. THAT one motivated me to do something--anything.

Will report as I have time.

Fair clouds to you all.

Fred
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yes she does, actually.

Hurricanes can happen at anytime but there is certainly a period of heightened activity. Otherwise we wouldn't have a hurricane season in the first place.

Which mean's Mother nature doesn't have a calender.

BTW, I have not been well today hence why I have not posted anything all day.
Quoting NoMeteorsInOlogy:
Long time no post for me. I am here in Luzon, the northern Philippine island where Manila sits. Local news reports two platoons of Army personnel missing in Mindinao when their temporary barracks was hit by a flash flood. A landslide last night claimed more than twenty people. Further, 33 drowned and 24 are missing in New Bataan from landfall. The worst will be tonight for several islands. The ground is already saturated and more rain is coming, meaning more landslides and floods. The terrain here is dotted with small, rugged mountains, most less than 2000 feet above the terrain, and primarily volcanic in formation. Heavy deforestation due to farming and illegal cutting have created areas highly susceptible to floods and landslides and mudslides.

In Bananga, the village head declared "%u201CEverything is gone%u2014houses, crops...%u201D and that the typhoon victims urgently needed food.

Donations can be sent to Philippine Red Cross--you can probably specify a place if the Great Recession hasn't made you a needy human being yourself. As for me--my wife and I are taking a hundred kilos of rice by bus Saturday to Batangas--the port in Luzon, and my wife has Coast Guard contacts that will get it to Bananga in Mindinao via two other islands.

The village is in utter ruins and people are still being retrieved. the Television reported a seven year old girl had lost everything and everyone in her family--sisters, brothers, parents, grandparents and two uncles. THAT one motivated me to do something--anything.

Will report as I have time.

Fair clouds to you all.

Fred

Thanks very much for posting. I feel the death toll from Pablo/Bopha is just going to continue to climb as conditions ease and emergency workers and the Army is able to get into effected areas.

Would it be possible for you to pick up 2 bags of rice from our place in Bulacan and to give it to the Coast Guard also. You can WU-mail me if it is possible.

Thoughts and prayers with you and our fellow Filipino's.
Typhoon death toll climbs to over 200



MANILA, Philippines The death toll from typhoon Pablo (international name Bopha) that battered Visayas and Mindanao climbed to more than 200 people Wednesday and officials feared many more bodies could be found as rescuers reached hard-hit areas that had been isolated by landslides, floods and downed communications, the military said.
Lieutenant Colonel Lyndon Paniza of the Army's 10th Infantry Division said fatalities from Compostela Valley have gone up to 142, with 69 of which were from Tuesday's flashflood in New Bataan.
Three of the 69 were Army soldiers.
He added that there were 158 injured from Pablo's wrath. The number of those missing was unclear. Earlier reports said 258 were still unaccounted for but Paniza corrected the reports and said only 79 were missing, 58 from Compostela and 21 from Davao Oriental.
In Davao Oriental, meanwhile, there were 114 reported deaths and 21 still missing, according to the Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council.
Paniza also said heavy rains and strong winds whipped up by Pablo have damaged crops in Davao del Norte.
Davao del Norte was affected and damage to crops, especially the banana plantations was extensive and rice fields are under water, he said.
But as to fatalities we have no report coming from Davao del Norte, he added.
Paniza also said evacuees from Davao del Norte have returned to their homes.
Few structures left standing
Social Welfare Secretary Corazon Soliman and other officials described scenes of utter devastation with houses and other structures in some towns and villages ripped apart by the most powerful storm to hit the country this year.
There are very few structures left standing in the town of Cateel, she told AFP, referring to one badly hit coastal town.
We need to rush to these areas body bags, medicines, dry clothes and most importantly tents, because survivors are living out in the open after the typhoon blew away homes and rooftops.
The situation was just as dire in New Bataan town, which the military said saw flash floods and mudslides.
The bodies are left lying on the ground in the open in New Bataan and we don't want to risk the spread of disease, Soliman said.
The New Bataan dead included a soldier taking part in rescue operations, Interior Secretary Mar Roxas said. Six other army men from the same unit were missing and three were injured.
It is quite sad and tragic. They were actually there to be ready to help our countrymen who may be in trouble, Roxas said.
The military was scrambling helicopters and heavy equipment Wednesday to the mountain town, where rainwater had gushed down from nearby slopes, creating a deadly swirl of water, logs and rocks that crushed everything in its path.
Logs and boulders blocked the narrow mountain pass leading to the town, said Major General Ariel Bernardo, commander of an army division in the area.
Parts of Mindanao remained without power and telephone services, with food and clean water in limited supply.
Cateel and two other towns on Mindanao's east coast remained cut off due to a collapsed bridge and fallen trees and debris blocking roads, said Corazon Malanyaon, governor of Davao Oriental province where Bopha made landfall.
She said rescuers were using everything from heavy equipment to their bare hands and chainsaws to clear the roads.
It's like we're running an obstacle course, Malanyaon said on local radio.
About 95 percent of the town centre's structures including hospitals, private homes, private buildings had their roofs blown away, she said.
Bernardo said about 200 soldiers were dispatched to help them, while emphasizing that the military was also a victim of the storm after an army patrol base and a rescue truck were washed away in New Bataan.
In one of our headquarters, no bunkers were left standing and all our communication equipment has been destroyed, he said.
Bopha struck Mindanao early Tuesday, bringing driving rain and strong winds that forced 87,000 people to seek refuge in emergency shelters, according to an updated civil defense office tally.
It was the 16th storm this year to ravage the Philippines, which is hit with about 20 cyclones annually.
In December last year Mindanao was pummeled by tropical storm Washi, which killed more than 1,200 people and left hundreds of thousands homeless.
Typhoon ‘Pablo’ death toll rise



MANILA, Philippines—The death toll from the powerful Typhoon “Pablo” (international name Bopha) climbed to at least 240, as rescuers battled to reach areas cut off in flash floods and mudslides, officials said Wednesday.
The 16th storm to enter the Philippines this year has so far left 51 people killed in flash floods in New Bataan, Compostela Valley, with more villagers still missing after being swept away by strong currents, the military said.
Three of the 51 fatalities were soldiers.
In Davao Oriental, 81 deaths were reported.
The Provincial Disaster Response and Reduction Management Center in Davao Oriental said the municipality of Baganga, where Pablo made landfall, recorded the biggest number of deaths so far, with 31, followed by the adjacent town of Cateel with 30.
The provincial disaster center report said 95 people were injured in Cateel while 51 were hurt in Baganga.
Caraga recorded six deaths from “Pablo”, while six more fatalities were listed in the provinces of Misamis Oriental and Occidental, Siquijor and Bukidnon.
A total of 21 persons were reported missing in the towns of Caraga, Baganga and Cateel, it added.
The storm caused 24,000 families or 120,000 persons in Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Davao region and Caraga to flee their homes. Most of the evacuees were from Surigao del Sur with over 50,000.
The towns of Baganga, Cateel and Boston remained inaccessible by land because the Mandulog Bridge in Caraga collapsed at the height of the storm.
“There’s still no electricity there. The communication lines are still down,” said Col. Leopoldo Galon, chief of the civil relations group of the military’s Eastern Mindanao Command.
Heavy to intense rains dumped by Pablo caused suspension of classes, power outages, and communication interruption in the areas of Central Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Davao region, Caraga and Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.
Nearly 50 roundtrip domestic flights by Cebu Pacific Air and Zest Air were cancelled Wednesday.
As of latest, Pablo weakened further as it hovered over Northern Palawan.
Mornin' gang!
Evening Aussie.. hope you get to feeling better Mate!
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #13
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
5:00 PM PhST December 5 2012
==============================

Typhoon "PABLO" has maintained its strength as it moves in a west northwest direction

At 4:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [976 hPa] located at 11.2°N 118.7°E or 110 km northwest of Roxas, northern Palawan has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots gusting up to 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #3
-----------

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Northern Palawan
2. Calamian Group of Islands

Signal Warning #2
-----------

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Rest of Palawan

Signal Warning #1
----------

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Occidental Mindoro

Additional Information
========================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-18 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #3 and signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this typhoon.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of Luzon and western Visayas.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
Referring to earlier discussions regarding use of Oil Pipelines for transportation of water and collection of rain water

I am aware that water was (and still may be) used as a "plug" between different types/grades of Fuel in Fuel Pipelines - albeit the water "plug" and a %age of each delivery of Fuel had to be disposed of - so potentially there is a possibility to do so - whether this would work in Crude Oil Pipelines I am not sure.

As a Caribbean Island dweller, I rely for the most part on rain water for drinking, washing etc and suffer no ills from it. I realise many people (especially those who insist on drinking bottle water wherever they go)will turn their noses up at this very idea and wring their hands in horror - however even if they only collected rain water for irrigation or washing the car, they could start to make a more positive impact.

News are so bad; hard to say "Good morning" ...

238 dead, hundreds missing due to 'Pablo'

by Ted Aljibe, Agence France-Presse
Posted at 12/05/2012 3:50 PM | Updated as of 12/05/2012 4:50 PM


Bopha


Most populated area

Good Morning Folks and prayers for those hit by Pablo..
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' gang!
Evening Aussie.. hope you get to feeling better Mate!

Thanks Mate! Good Mornin' to you.
Just getting some tucker in my guts which should help
319 missing in New Bataan flashflood

Entire families may have been washed away, says Roxas

MANILA, Philippines - The flashflood that hit the town of New Bataan in Compostela Valley has left 319 people missing, according to Interior and Local Government Secretary Mar Roxas, who visited the province on Wednesday.

Roxas said authorities had the whole day Wednesday to conduct search and rescue operations, but the missing individuals were not located.

"Really saddening that entire families may have been washed away," Roxas told ANC's "Top Story".

The search and rescue operations, conducted by a team of barangay officials, soldiers and police, are moving at a slow pace because I of a Lack of equipment.

"Slow and difficult because 'they are very difficult those muddy conditions, dense clay especially' those uphill, so it's really slow going," said Roxas.

Roxas also said 78 people have been confirmed dead in the flashflood, but 20 remain unidentified.

Flashflood

Roxas said based on the survivors' accounts, the water may have flowed from a lake up in the mountains, creating a "waterfall" effect on the town.

He said in New Bataan Several areas have been tagged as geohazard zones, but the particular barangays hit by the floods were not located near a Waterway.

"They said, there seems to pond or lake up in the mountains and it was a natural indentation to yield. So rather than the water going along the normal route of along the river or along the stream, he was like a waterfall across a broad area, "said Roxas.

He noted, however, that mining engineers in the area will still investigate the incident.

Davao Oriental

Roxas said he also visited Davao Oriental to assess the damage left by typhoon "Paul".

He said he saw about "a hundred thousand coconut trees felled" via chopper on His way from Compostela Valley to Davao Oriental.

"Left and right of the helicopter were felled hectares of coconut and banana trees. Really wiped out, "he said.

Three towns in Davao Oriental, where the typhoon made landfall Tuesday morning, remain isolated.

Roxas said a Bridge Leading to the towns of Cateel, Boston and Baganga collapsed During the height of the typhoon.

He said fishing vessels are being used to distribute relief goods in the affected towns, where there about 150,000 residents.
260 still missing in ComVal flashflood



Local officials in Compostela Valley said the number of missing persons due to flashfloods and landslides caused by typhoon “Pablo” in New Bataan has risen to 260.

Search and rescue operations are ongoing, but authorities are having difficulty because some remote areas are inaccessible.

Authorities earlier reported that at least 66 people have been killed in the province.
This is awful. We knew it would be, but looking over the aftermath still impacts the soul. I sit here looking at places like this, and Haiti and I shudder thinking about how powerless the poor are against nature. Everyone gets affected the same, but with the poor, the suffering continues for a long time as they bury their loved ones and try to figure out how to rebuild with no funds. They recover knowing all along that they will still be here when the next one arrives to repeat the cycle. To them, the light at the end of the tunnel is a train heading their way... prayers.
‘Pablo’ devastation ‘unexpected,’ Davao Oriental governor wept.



TARRAGONA, Davao Oriental—The sound of the wind coming from the Pacific Ocean at 3 a.m. was so horrible that residents of this coastal town thought the sky was ripping apart.
Curious and terrified, the residents could see only the dark horizon.
The sounds of trees crashing to the ground, houses and objects toppling, the crying of children and women were all muted by the howling wind.
By this time, the electricity went off, worsening the darkness that had already engulfed the town.
The sun showed up several hours later, shedding light on the devastation that was everywhere.
“I’ve lived here all my life and I am now 45, but I have not experienced anything like this before,” Sonny Tadanon, a fisherman and a father of nine, said at the evacuation center in the town proper here. Tadanon recounted how he saw debris flying all over town.
“It was really unexpected,” he said.
His brother’s wife, Nelfa, 41, said that when she returned to the village after the typhoon, all she could see was the ugly sight that typhoon Pablo had left behind. “We were just fortunate that we were spared from harm,” she said.
But others were not as lucky.
Dozens of people died in the province, according to Fred Bendulo, the provincial planning and development officer.
“These reports came from our social welfare personnel, but we could not verify it as the towns of Cateel, Boston and Baganga were totally cut off,” he said, adding that roads were damaged and bridges had collapsed.
The devastation was so extensive that Gov. Corazon Malanyaon wept.
“When I gave her the initial briefing later in the day, she could not believe what she just heard and she began weeping,” Bendulo said.
Malanyaon later told the Philippine Daily Inquirer that even she was so scared when the strong wind hit Mati.
“I felt that it was going to put Mati down. I was also so scared, especially at the thought that many of those in the coastal areas were in a more precarious situation,” she said.
What added to her burden, Malanyaon said, was that some people insisted on staying in their houses even when told to evacuate.
Malanyaon said the devastation that Pablo brought to the province was only one of the major concerns.
She said many people lost their livelihood as a result and people could be pushed deeper into poverty. “I cannot make the assurance that the province can take care all of their problems,” she said.
In New Bataan, one of the hardest-hit areas in Southern Mindanao, disbelief was etched at every face the Inquirer saw.
It was as if they were still trying to piece together the events that led to the massive devastation and deaths around them.
Outside the public gymnasium, villagers waited as news about their missing kin, neighbors and acquaintances came in trickles.
When a military truck ferrying rescued injured villagers, a mixed feeling was all too evident as residents stood up in anticipation of seeing somebody close to their hearts.
Seven-year old Imee Sayson was among those barely breathing when plucked out of the mud by rescuers.
“She was fortunately found by rescuers, but her father, Rommel, and her brother Ayel are still missing,” Red Cross volunteer Vic Paulo Bandong said.
Imee was suffering from hypothermia, Bandong said.
When the Philippine Daily Inquirer tried to ask her questions, her only response was: “Kaihion ko (I’d like to take a leak).”
Among those still looking for relatives on Wednesday was Juniper Serato, who counts at least six family members, including his parents—Flavianas and Isaias—and sister Shiela, as among the missing.
Soon, cadavers came in batches—some still unrecognizable because of the dirt and mud that covered them.
“I had difficulty recognizing the faces because the bodies are bloated,” he said, pointing to several dead bodies that were laid on the ground. Some were starting to stink from being in the water for several hours.
“I am so worried now,” he said, apparently holding back his emotions.
According to Bandong, rescuers lacked vehicles to transport affected individuals to evacuation centers and the bodies to a place where residents can identify them.
As of Wednesday afternoon, the death toll in the town was at 79, based on the tally released by the New Bataan government.
Good morning/evening all. My heart breaks for all the people affected by this typhoon. And it's only going to get worse before it gets better. Those poor people! Somehow wishing everyone on here a wonderful day seems trite compared to how these people's days are. So today, I will just head off to work with a prayer for them.
Sandy then Bohpa, two unusual and very destructive storms.
Prayers to all the Pacific islanders affected and for everyone helping out.

Big CME comming off the sun just now. Imagine if Voyager could use a sail and travel with the speed of that solar wind. It could get to its current location in a week or two instead of 35 years.(not doing the math on it yet)

I have heard of purple rain, but not purple lightning. That is impressive.

Lows seem to be overpredicted (too warm by around 5 degrees) in my area lately. Are nightime clouds being over predicted?
Hard to day good morning with the devasting news coming out of the the Philippines today.
434. beell
Nice little mid-level spin heading eastbound in the northern Gulf. Should weaken as it approaches FL



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CST WED DEC 05 2012

...A DISTINCT SRN-STREAM CYCLONE...WHICH RECENTLY EMERGED OVER THE
NWRN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL TRACK ESEWD AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE
GULF THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. WITHIN THE SRN/ERN QUADRANTS OF
THIS CYCLONE...THE PRESENCE OF MARGINAL BUOYANCY AMIDST RELATIVELY
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SERN LA...SERN MS...AND SWRN AL. GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK
OF THE CYCLONE...THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED
TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY.
Quoting FtMyersgal:
Hard to day good morning with the devasting news coming out of the the Philippines today.


I know.

It sure is, FM.


Thanks for posting news of the storm and links on here. It is better than any other sources I have.
‘Pablo’ death toll reaches at least 267

MANILA, Philippines—At least 267 have been reported dead in Davao Oriental and Compostela Valley provinces, the two areas that were directly hit by typhoon “Pablo” (international name: Bopha), the military said Wednesday.
As of 5:30 p.m., 151 casualties have been recorded in Compostela Valley and 116 in Davao Oriental, Lt. Col. Lyndon Paniza of the Army 10th infantry division said in a radio interview.
There were also at least 151 injured persons and 21 missing persons in Compostela Valley while in Davao Oriental 175 have been injured and 57 were still unaccounted for, Paniza said.
The casualties in Compostela Valley include four soldiers who were undergoing search-and-rescue operations but unfortunately perished when they were swept away by strong currents.
Paniza said the soldiers were helping civilians get to higher grounds when the land they were standing on gave way and the strong water current swept them away. Twenty-three other soldiers were injured while seven were missing.
He said the fallen soldiers will be given a hero’s burial and that their relatives had been informed.
Typhoon Pablo was spotted 110 kilometers northwest of Roxas in northern Palawan and was moving slower northwest at 15 kilometers per hour, according to the 5 p. m. weather bulletin from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).
Pablo was still packing maximum sustained winds of 120 kph and gustiness of up to 150 kph, Pagasa said.
Signal No. 3 remains in northern Palawan and the Calamian group of islands. The rest of Palawan is still under signal No. 2 while only Occidental Mindoro remains under signal 1, Pagasa said.
274 dead, hundreds missing due to 'Pablo'

NEW BATAAN, Philippines (UPDATED) - The death toll from a typhoon that ravaged the Philippines jumped to 274 Wednesday with hundreds more missing, as rescuers battled to reach areas cut off by floods and mudslides.

Typhoon Bopha slammed into the southern island of Mindanao Tuesday, toppling trees and blowing away thousands of homes with 210-kilometre (130-mile) per hour gusts before easing and heading towards the South China Sea.



A total of 253 people died in and around the gold-rush mountain towns of New Bataan and Monkayo due to typhoon-spawned landslides and flash floods there, civil defence chief Benito Ramos told reporters.

Twenty-one people were killed in other parts of the southern island of Mindanao and the central islands, he added.

Cabinet members Mar Roxas and Corazon Soliman, who flew to the south to inspect the damage, described scenes of utter devastation with thousands of houses ripped apart and corpses lying on the ground.

"These are whole families, six or seven names with the same surnames. It is saddening to think entire families have been washed away," Interior Secretary Roxas said.

"There is hardly any structure that is undamaged," he said in an interview over ABS-CBN television.

"We need to rush to these areas body bags, medicines, dry clothes and most importantly tents, because survivors are living out in the open," Social Welfare Secretary Soliman told AFP.

Bodies caked in mud were being transported on the back of army trucks and laid out in rows on tarpaulins where relatives searching for missing family members broke down as they identified the shrouded corpses of loved ones.

Shell-shocked survivors scrabbled through the rubble of their homes to find anything that could be recovered among a surrounding wasteland of flattened banana and coconut trees.

Ramos said 279 other people were still missing, while 339 others were treated for injuries.

About 178,000 people remained huddled in evacuation centres, mostly crowded schoolhouses, gyms and other government buildings, officials said.

Meanwhile, rescue personnel still struggled to reach areas cut off by the storm where many more casualties might be found.

President Benigno Aquino said he hoped the country was learning from its frequent natural disasters, including the roughly 20 cyclones that hit each year.

"Any single casualty is a cause for distress. Our aim must always be about finding ways to lessen them," he told reporters in Manila, while pointing out the "big difference" in casualty counts compared with previous storms.

The more than 500 dead or missing in Bopha was still below the 1,200 deaths from tropical storm Washi, which hit in December 2011, leaving hundreds of thousands homeless in Mindanao, he said.

Aquino said the government was investigating why an army patrol base in New Bataan, which was washed away in the flash floods, had been located in a flood-prone area.

Officials were also checking reports that an evacuation centre there was among the structures wiped out in the floods, the president added.

"According to (survivors), there is a small lake on the mountain that gave way so the waters flowed down, not just along the rivers... but all across, like a waterfall, bringing a slurry that covered the whole town," Roxas said.

One shelter there had caved in during the typhoon, forcing the people inside to flee to an even smaller building, he said.

Bopha was the most powerful of the 16 storms to pummel the Philippines this year, though Mindanao is not usually on the front line.

Regional military spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Paniza said three soldiers taking part in rescue operations were killed in New Bataan, with eight others from the same unit among the missing.

"It is quite sad and tragic. They were actually there to be ready to help our countrymen who may be in trouble," Roxas said.





NDRRMC: 200,000 affected by ‘Pablo’

MANILA, Philippines – More than 200,000 people have been affected in 22 provinces in the Visayas and Mindanao regions while the death toll rose further to 274 after typhoon “Pablo” (international name Bopha) battered the parts of Mindanao and Visayas.
According to the latest bulletin of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) Wednesday evening, 217,850 people have been affected in the provinces that were directly hit by Pablo.
At least 274 fatalities have been reported, many of whom were still unidentified, while 339 were reported injured, NDRRMC said.
A state of calamity has been declared in the province of Surigao del Sur as many areas were still without electricity, it said.
Damages reached a total of P178,340,500: P172,600,000 from infrastructure, P2,520,500 from agriculture, and P3,220,000 from private properties, the report said.
On the status of ports all over the country, 4,388 passengers, 600 rolling cargoes, 102 vessels, 53 motor bancas were still left stranded, NDRRMC said.
At least 177,277 persons are being served in 372 evacuation centers, the report said.
“Pablo” has been spotted by the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) at 110 kilometers northwest of Roxas, northern Palawan and was moving slowly northwest at 15 kilometers per hour.
Pablo is expected to leave the Philippine area of responsibility by Friday, Pagasa said.
If anyone is offended by the photo's I have included in the news reports, please tell me and I will remove them.
You're a class act Aussie.

off to do a radio show, laters!

DEMAND CLEAN WATER!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
You're a class act Aussie.



That Gentleman sure is.


I dont care about seeing pictures of dead bodies.

I want to see if there is snow on my way.
Quoting indianrivguy:
off to do a radio show, laters!

DEMAND CLEAN WATER!

Radio show. And chance of it being streamed online?

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
You're a class act Aussie.


Saddendly I say Thanks. I have a heavy heart. I contacted my sister in law and she's going to send 2x50kg bags of rice to the Philippines Red Cross on our behalf.


Looks like a good snow potential.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Looks like a good snow potential.


Where in Wisconsin are you? I went to high school in a burb of Milwaukee.
Rhode Island and Coast Guard officials said they didn't find anything after receiving reports about an explosion in Narragansett Bay. People on both sides of the bay in Barrington and Warwick and as far away as Somerset reported hearing what sounded like an explosion at about 11:30 p.m. Monday. Some also reported seeing a light. Area police and firefighters tried to find the source of the noise and light during land and water searches, but officials say nothing was found. Coast Guard crews and local officials also searched Monday night for a boat reported to be in distress, but didn't find anything. TV stations reported receiving reports of an explosion followed by a loud hum. A Coast Guard spokesman says the Conimicut lighthouse near Warwick emits a hum pattern.


I hope this forecast isnt going to start trolling by kicking down the chance for snow until there is none.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Where in Wisconsin are you? I went to high school in a burb of Milwaukee.


Wausau.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Wausau.


Thank you FV. I lived in Oak Creek. Moved to Ft Myers in 1982 and can honestly say I don't miss the snow. I hope you get the snow you are wishing for :)
Quoting Walshy:
That map is always giving my area false hope.Temps will rise right back in the 50's and 60's once this little cold wave is over.

Can someone tell TxTombell that I have them on ignore?.Thanks.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM AND HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION IT WOULD BRING TO THE AREA. LATER FORECASTS WILL BE
ABLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM AND
PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS


Please be right.
Quoting biff4ugo:
Prayers to all the Pacific islanders affected and for everyone helping out.

Big CME comming off the sun just now. Imagine if Voyager could use a sail and travel with the speed of that solar wind. It could get to its current location in a week or two instead of 35 years.(not doing the math on it yet)

I have heard of purple rain, but not purple lightning. That is impressive.

Lows seem to be overpredicted (too warm by around 5 degrees) in my area lately. Are nightime clouds being over predicted?


Can't catch the solar wind at 100% efficiency.

ESA had a design for an electric solar sail, and based on their numbers that had posted, It still takes a few years to get beyond Neptune, but you will be moving so fast by then that it would quickly over-take Voyager.

Still, if it was actually built and worked the way it's supposed to, it would be the fastest man-made craft ever, and would be far faster than Voyager or New Horizons.

I'd suggest using a solar sail as an extra stage to push a NERVA rocket or an ion engine up to large velocities before the engine was ever engaged. This way you can probably double maximum velocity for the same "fuel" costs.
Devastation caused by Cyclone Pablo, Aerial inspection by GMA Davao



Seeing this destruction really shows how bad Pablo/Bopha was. I am fairly sure PAGASA severely under forecast Pablo/Bopha. They need a big kick up the butt. We here all knew Bopha was a Cat 5 typhoon at landfall, yet PAGASA only had signal 3 up and not signal 4 which means forced evacuations of everyone and if they don't evacuate they will be arrested for there own good. Signal 3 means mandatory but forced evacuations is not enforced.
Quoting washingtonian115:
That map is always giving my area false hope.Temps will rise right back in the 50's and 60's once this little cold wave is over.

Can someone tell TxTombell that I have them on ignore?.Thanks.

You can always edit your ignore list. Just click ignore user on any handle, bottom of the list remove that handle and any other handle you wish to un-ignore.
Quoting AussieStorm:

You can always edit your ignore list. Just click ignore user on any handle, bottom of the list remove that handle and any other handle you wish to un-ignore.
Yesterday I wasn't signed in and tombelltx kept replying to my post.I don't think they know that I have them on ignore.They aren't coming off anytime soon either.
459. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
That map is always giving my area false hope.Temps will rise right back in the 50's and 60's once this little cold wave is over.

Can someone tell TxTombell that I have them on ignore?.Thanks.


I am sure Ainslie already knows Wash.


Morning Folks.

Anyways its just truely heartbreaking what has happened in the Philipines.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Yesterday I wasn't signed in and tombelltx kept replying to my post.I don't think they know that I have them on ignore.They aren't coming off anytime soon either.

Ok then, well since I am replying to you, I'm sure tombelltx will see you have them on ignore.
Quoting VR46L:


I am sure Ainslie already knows Wash.


Morning Folks.

Anyways its just truely heartbreaking what has happened in the Philipines.

This is what happens when the government in a particular country spends the money on themselves except for helping the citizens with it.You get these types of situations like what we saw with Haiti.You would think these type of events are a wake up call for them but they just keep on doing the same thing..
462. ARiot
Quoting washingtonian115:
This is what happens when the government in a particular country spends the money on themselves except for helping the citizens with it.You get these types of situations like what we saw with Haiti.You would think these type of events are a wake up call for them but they just keep on doing the same thing..


There's much about the RP to understand. Bottom line though, they are economic pawns of multinational interests and their church's dogma on birth control.

There is no way quick way out for this very young country (really 1946). Add to that the fact they really are about 7 or 8 nations rolled into one set of borders, and it's one of the most complicated geopolicital/economic tragedies in a region of many.
This December isn't going to be very cold.Seeing that temps will go right back into the 60's is very discouraging.Looks like another 011-012 it seems with winter being more like spring and little short waves of cold.
This is the last video I will post tonight. Even though many of us don't understand what they are saying, I understand a few words. The look on the peoples faces of shock, sadness and disbelief is all to present. My heart goes out the the people of Mindanao and to the people if the Philippines.



Goodnight all. I will be back in the morning and I'm sure the death toll which is not 274 will only increase.

Goodnight all.
Good Morning All,
(Good night Aussie)

Webcam from my area


My WU weather





Rain's coming..not far away now.. :)


a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

Good morning. What's up? :)
Quoting icmoore:
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

Good morning. What's up? :)


Some slow moving benefitial re-supply of needed rain headed my way..
And of course whats left of Bopha




A storm of death and destruction.. :(
Quoting pcola57:


Some slow moving benefitial re-supply of needed rain headed my way..
And of course whats left of Bopha




A storm of death and destruction.. :(


Very sad indeed...
Quoting pcola57:


Some slow moving benefitial re-supply of needed rain headed my way..
And of course whats left of Bopha




A storm of death and destruction.. :(
Typhoons/hurricanes aren't always rainbows and sparlkes...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Typhoons/hurricanes aren't always rainbows and sparlkes...


I realize that washi..
Nature at the helm..
Just hoping it was less of a killing storm..
Can't hold that against me dear..
Quoting washingtonian115:
That map is always giving my area false hope.Temps will rise right back in the 50's and 60's once this little cold wave is over.

Can someone tell TxTombell that I have them on ignore?.Thanks.



I don't mean to be rude wash but.. who you have on ignore is your business not mine and you should keep it to yourself. That's TMI that doesn't need to be shared IMO
Quoting pcola57:


I realize that washi..
Nature at the helm..
Just hoping it was less of a killing storm..
Can't hold that against me dear..
Oh no I wasn't holding it agisnt you.These storms are more beautiful out in the ocean.When they make landfall it's not a pretty sight to see.Especially at that intensity.

FtMyersgirl:Tombelltx didn't know so I was just warning them If they wanted to reply to my post from now on.Peaople always say who they have on ignore all the time..
98S..



Hawaii getting rains today..




I love rainy days..
Makes me feel like going X-mas shopping..
Would rather it would snow but thats out of the question.. :)



Quoting pcola57:
I love rainy days..
Makes me feel like going X-mas shopping..
Would rather it would snow but thats out of the question.. :)

Decembr will perhaps tradically end up warm for most people.Something I'm going to really hate.
Quoting AussieStorm:
This is the last video I will post tonight. Even though many of us don't understand what they are saying, I understand a few words. The look on the peoples faces of shock, sadness and disbelief is all to present. My heart goes out the the people of Mindanao and to the people if the Philippines.



Goodnight all. I will be back in the morning and I'm sure the death toll which is not 274 will only increase.

Goodnight all.


Thank you for all the posts Aussie. Such a tragic situation in the Ph indeed. You are absolutely right. We may all speak a different language and live in a different place on this rock but one thing is true: Pain, loss and compassion are part of a language that is universal. Thoughts and prayers to the people out there.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Decembr will perhaps tradically end up warm for most people.Something I'm going to really hate.


I'm pulling for you Washi..
Did you make your list for Santa yet??
I did but I may be on the naughty list.. :)
Update from Montreal, Quebec...

I posted a comment a couple of weeks ago about how dry November has been. Well, the numbers are in.

November 2012 recorded 13.8mm(0.52in) of precipitation, which is remarkable considering the next four driest Novembers since 1942 are well above this amount.

1. 2012, 13.8mm(0.52in)
2. 1991, 31.5mm(1.24in)
3. 1998, 35.7mm(1.41in)
4. 1994, 40.2mm(1.58in)
5. 1962, 41.1mm(1.62in)

Ironically, 4 days into December, and we're already at 16.0mm(0.61in) for the month!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Decembr will perhaps tradically end up warm for most people.Something I'm going to really hate.
Just wait until late December, It will make up for the warm period with a cold stormy period.
Philippine: Death toll due to typhoon rises to 274 (video)
Posted today at 14:02 The number of deaths caused by the passage of Typhoon Bopha the Philippines rose to 274 and hundreds of people still missing, reported the civil protection services.
The typhoon hit the island of Mindanao (south) on Tuesday with gusts of 210 kilometers / hour uprooted trees and destroyed hundreds of thousands of homes.

The storm caused flooding and landslides, especially near the towns of New Bataan and Monkayo​​, killing at least 253 people, according to the head of the civil protection Benito Ramos.

21 others died in other parts of Mindanao and other islands, according to the same charge.

The interior ministers, Mar Roxas, and Social Affairs, Corazon Soliman, traveled to Mindanao to monitor the relief operations and described a scene of devastation.

"They are whole families, six or seven names with the same surname. It is sad to think that entire families were washed away, "Roxas said in an interview with ABS-CBN television.

http://www.tsf.pt/PaginaInicial/Vida/Interior.asp x?content_id=2928455
What do we have here? :)

It deepens to 960mb on its way north!

ABC7 News‏@abc7newsBayArea

A tree fell onto a house on the 40 block of Lurmont Street in San Francisco. @EricThomasKGO is headed to the scene.
Alaska is still getting crushed with cold air running in some places over 30 degrees below normal. Some let up in the cold is expected next week when temperatures should rise to 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

Chicken Ak got to -50 six days in a row and Tok Ak made it to -58F

Fairbanks yesterday





Aussie, i'm not offended by the pics, but they seem like something that could maybe be linked to instead, and you could compose a warning about the graphic nature of the images next to the link. my concern is for the younger and very sensitive who may be checking out this site, but unable to comment. best to assume such graphic content is too much for Someone, imo...
however, it is important for us far removed to understand what is going on, so i do thank you.
Quoting SteveDa1:
What do we have here? :)

It deepens to 960mb on its way north!

Mets are talkin about a big pattern shift with severe weather and snow.
Quoting nymore:
Alaska is still getting crushed with cold air running in some places over 30 degrees below normal. Some let up in the cold is expected next week when temperatures should rise to 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

Chicken Ak got to -50 six days in a row and Tok Ak made it to -58F

Fairbanks yesterday





Chicken, AK..:)
Quoting hydrus:
Mets are talkin about a big pattern shift with severe weather and snow.
Bad weather to where?
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS DAY
4 /SAT. 12-8/...AND THEN EXPANDING INTO THE OH/TN/MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEYS AND WRN GULF COAST REGION DAY 5
...AS FRONTAL CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS DAY 4 SHIFTS NEWD DAY 5 ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE -- ALLOWING A TRAILING COLD FRONTAL SURGE TO OCCUR. WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE IN THE WARM SECTOR IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT...GENERAL SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE
. ATTM HOWEVER...WILL OPT NOT TO
INTRODUCE ANY THREAT AREAS SUGGESTING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
EVENT...AS SUCH A SCENARIO CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY.
_________________________________________________ _____

Im getting my hopes up, it wont be as warm or humid as this week but still....
Quoting hydrus:
Chicken, AK..:)
Quoting hydrus:
Mets are talkin about a big pattern shift with severe weather and snow.
big change a comin, it sure feels to me.. thinking about that well of deep cold pooling, something's gotta give!
Quoting Luisport:
Philippine: Death toll due to typhoon rises to 274 (video)
Posted today at 14:02 The number of deaths caused by the passage of Typhoon Bopha the Philippines rose to 274 and hundreds of people still missing, reported the civil protection services.
The typhoon hit the island of Mindanao (south) on Tuesday with gusts of 210 kilometers / hour uprooted trees and destroyed hundreds of thousands of homes.

The storm caused flooding and landslides, especially near the towns of New Bataan and Monkayo​​, killing at least 253 people, according to the head of the civil protection Benito Ramos.

21 others died in other parts of Mindanao and other islands, according to the same charge.

The interior ministers, Mar Roxas, and Social Affairs, Corazon Soliman, traveled to Mindanao to monitor the relief operations and described a scene of devastation.

"They are whole families, six or seven names with the same surname. It is sad to think that entire families were washed away, "Roxas said in an interview with ABS-CBN television.

http://www.tsf.pt/PaginaInicial/Vida/Interior.asp x?content_id=2928455
Knew it was going to be bad down there. Makes me sad.
Quoting hydrus:
Mets are talkin about a big pattern shift with severe weather and snow.



The models may be transitioning to a flatter sort of trough, this wasnt even on the run consistently in this time fram till yesterday but it has consistency now:

NOW:



12 hour ago run:


24hr ago run when it first started to show up:


It tends to go negative in the mid atlantic


Almost NO CAPE forecast at this time...but we'll have to see if any can develop.
well, this is an argument in favor of chemtrails. not my own research.
Quoting Minnemike:
big change a comin, it sure feels to me.. thinking about that well of deep cold pooling, something's gotta give!
Possible severe weather, could be some strong tornadoes. The GFS still showing positive tilt, but if that changes not good.
Quoting plutorising:
well, this is an argument in favor of chemtrails. not my own research.
this is neither an argument for anything, nor relevant to modern commercial air traffic, but yes, it is a news story about cold war antics decades ago.. ok then
LOL GFS showing snow in TN in 5-6 days and freezing temps directly behind a front.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
since this blog is moving on, i'm gonna shout out to my best friend Nicholas David (mrozinski) who is Killin it on the Voice, moving to top 4!!!
sorry doc, hope i haven't broken the rule of the road too badly ;)
MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A MUCH FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE TROUGH...SHOWING LESS OF A TENDENCY TO DIG IN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
RATHER POOR WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...STRENGTH...AND POSITION OF
THIS SYSTEM. A MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND POSITIVE TILT OF THE
TROUGH AS SHOWN BY THE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS WOULD LIMIT ANY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO A NARROW AXIS IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
_________________________________________________ ___

bummer.... -__-

Maybe just one of those really long squall lines that pass by in 20 minutes. If that much.
WITH A
STRONG +100KT UPPER JET AND FORECAST MUCAPE OF LESS THAN 500
J/KG...THIS IS LOOKING TO BE A HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE SYSTEM....
501. VR46L
.