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Two waves to watch

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:06 PM GMT on July 29, 2006

The tropical wave near 9N, 46W, about 1000 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, continues to show signs that it may organize into a tropical depression. While we don't have a good recent QuikSCAT pass to look at, this morning's visible satellite imagery shows a pronounced surface circulation. However, the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has greatly decreased since yesterday, due to the ingestion of dry Saharan air from the north (Figure 1). Dry air will continue to be a problem for the wave the farther north it goes. The forecast tracks from the latest computer models (Figure 2) show a mostly westward track, but the wave is expected to slowly gain latitude, putting it more into the influence of this very dry air from Africa.


Figure 1. Saharan air layer (SAL) analysis from 8am EDT Sat Jul 29. Dry, dust laden air from the Sahara desert is coded orange, and lies just north of the tropical wave we're tracking. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA's Hurricane Research Division.

In the wave's favor, it is under only 5-10 knots of wind shear, and this shear is forecast to remain weak over the next two days. As the wave approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands on Monday, shear is forecast to increase again. Sea surface temperatures are favorable--28 C, about 2 degrees C above the threshold of 26 C needed for tropical storm formation.

The long term outlook for the system is not favorable, due to the large amount of dry air to its north and the increasing wind shear likely to affect the system once it nears the islands. In addition, the wave is expected to cross into the southeast Caribbean. This region is climatologically unfavorable for tropical cyclones, because the land mass of South America cuts off the inflow of moist air from the south, replacing it with drier continental air.

None of the computer models develop this wave into a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Tropical wave south of Puerto Rico
An area of heavy thunderstorms associated with a westward-moving tropical wave has increased in coverage just south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic this morning. Wind shear over this disturbance is marginal for development, 10-20 knots, so some slow development is possible over the next few days. This disturbance probably has more potential than the other wave, due to the presence of much moister air in the Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Have a good night all.
Goodnight ryan.
just before the sun left you could see cloud tops really starting to build up.
It's possible catchaser. There are two notable waves right now. One is in the CATL near south america and the other in the ECAR just south of PR. The one in the carribean has had a lot of convection blow up today, has sustained fairly well. It doesn't have a circulation, though, and there is some high shear to its north. The wave in the CATL is nearly the opposite. It does have a low level circulation, but has had trouble developing much convection due to a large area of SAL or african dust to its north. It has been fighting the dust though, and conditions should improve for it in the near future. So we will need to keep a close eye on both of these.
So we're getting flabbergasted about tropical waves (and putative ones at that...).

Yawn.
yes jp, and that could be bad news for us poor helpless humans :)
i killed it :(
513. MZT
99L seems to have squeezed past most of the dry air... now mostly on the NE side of the system.

Now we get to wait for the dinural, to see how the shear goes.
...driving up from Grand Isle this afternoon after bringing tools down for friend re-building..and round hour ago..It hit me. It was 11mths ago today Patrap went from the Jetsons to the Flintstones in 4 hrs time..was sobering moment with August looming..
very true jp
where did johnnycyclone come from ?
no problem chaser, that's what we're here for

jp, nevermind, i meant the blog but when i refreshed there was a post. lol Yes, it's interesting they're showing a more northerly track.
E. S. America


Caribbean
I'm on east florida. :0
cheffjeff, he just popped in
hello story
Im guessing caribbean blob forms here in the next 48 hrs, absolutely nothing's getting passed the shear forcefield above the islands, is 99L gonna fizz out?
jp. I'm on the west coast in Fort Myers.
99L is looking good still, and the northward model shift is encouraging.
whats goin on everybody
The blog is indeed to understand the provenance and ontogeny of tropical storms. Few of us are that pedantic. Absent the option of reveling in a major storm, the jabber on waves compares to prospecting a struggling single-A kid versus genuflecting to Mr. Pujols and Mr. Howard.

which one does nhc/twc think is most likely to form? what do you guys think?
Hi Folks
I've been a member for a couple years now, since Francis and Jeanne visited our little community a couple August back lol. I mostly just lurk as i've been doing all summer as I really have very little to add to the knowledgable people on here. Just thought I would drop in in to tell you all that it seems like we have a great group on here this year and I think specualation over every little wave is exactly what this blog is for. I've learned more from following your speculations and observations than I would by any self study I might undertake, Thanks and keep up the good work.
Jer
as far as tropics, see summary above. otherwise, just chillin, blogging, and playing poker. and you?
536. MZT
It's rare to see a storm just drift straight west into South America. Precedent says that the wave will curve NW.
its genuflect, genuflecting isnt a word
I guarantee nothing major develops until mid to late august. Conditions haven't been too favorable for development so far. Anyone else got any feelings on this?
sees the shift on the latest runs and sees 99L still the player..good agreement on the 3,..with BamM the outlier ..encouraging.
JohnnyCyclone, Take a trip across the sea to Oxford.
Tropical wave 3 has maintained thunderstorms along its track across the Atlantic despite no low pressure center and somewhat shearing easterly winds aloft. The shearing should decrease as this third wave moves over the southern Lesser Antilles and at this point some development is possible. This wave continues to have the most potential.

By the Weather Channel
yes, it has been slowly doing that so far, but will move more so if the high shifts east
as for pedantic, that is not true either
I notice the LBAR had 99L going due west across S. America . . .

If nothing else, it should bring some rain to Trinidad/Tobago/Grenada/Grenadines area. I agree though - don't see this one fizzling out. But will it develop before Monday night??????

..maybe should take a look @ August 92..the A storm didnt form till late August...was Andrew I believe..how was things set up in late July of 92....?
Think of this johnnycyclone though, wilma (last year) was a single-A ball player as a 65mph and turned into a 180mph Albert Pujols in about 9 hours, yeah sometimes there is an overkill on the way we analyze these storms like (99L), but it is in a dangerous area and you know that. Anything can happen
hi JP n Andrew,, Im back any new info on 99L or caribbean disturbance?
548. MZT
The system south of Hispanolia still looks pretty disorganized, but there does seem to be some new convection flaring up. Considering that this is the time of night that small storms tend to go downhill and look pathetic, that may be saying something.
the GFDL is still high
[off topic]

Genuflecting is an inflected form of the verb. You are welcome to check a legitimate dictionary.
"don't see this one fizzling out. But will it develop before Monday night??????"

Look at what has happened to this system over the last 3 days. It went from organizing with circulation and signifigant amount of t-storm activity to basically minimal storm activity with very little concentrated circulation. The chances of this thing becoming more than a TD is very unlikeyly. Man I should work for the weather channel. Oh wait, they just look at NOAA's models and make predictions. Maybe I could work for NOAA. JK
genuflect is the inflected verb, keep up with that english class johnny
how about those south florida t-storms today?? The canals are filling back up
okay i am wrong there is genuflecting, huh, maybe i need that english class
Chances of 99L becoming a depression-20%
Chances of the Puerto Rican wave becoming a TD-15%.......
i wouldn't know bocaman. We in St. Augustine don't get thunderstorms anymore.
on dictionary.com they do show a genuflecting, ive never heard it used in that context though
learn somethin new every day
...words r flowing out like endless waves off the African coast..they slither on their wayward way ..across the South Atlantic...
Are you a meteorologist or just some want to be who knows nothing about hurricanes?
Hey gus kinda quiet here came across this story, it really interesting More than 60 percent of U.S. in drought (An area stretching from south central North Dakota to central South Dakota is the most drought-stricken region in the nation, . ."It's the epicenter," )

If you think about it, The Dust Bowl is routinely attributed to over farming and bad land management but they didnt have the weather monitoring equipment we do now. There are a lot of eerie coincidences climatologically - then to now.

On November 11, 1933, a very strong dust storm stripped topsoil from desiccated South Dakota farmlands in just one of a series of disastrous dust storms that year.

Northeast Floods "New England for the fourth straight day in what could prove to be the regions worst flooding since the 1930s."

Ohio Floods

Record heat Now and in 1933

1933 Hurricane year :

The 1933 season is the second most-active hurricane season on record, with 21 recorded tropical cyclones forming during the season. 1933 held the record for the most active Atlantic season for 72 years until the 2005 season broke the record with 28 storms

There were four named storms by the end of July in 1933
Bocaman - yeah, I appreciate all of that. Just looking for one eye out there to balance out all the what ifs.
ill be back, im gonna go study a dictionary and prepare
Genuflection is a noun, people.

(shouldn't be usin' them 40 pound words anyhow)

All 4-syllable words should be related to meteorology . . . (Gee, I hope I spelled that right :o)
Chances of 99L becoming a depression-20%
Chances of the Puerto Rican wave becoming a TD-15%


I agree with those numbers.
572. MZT
It's dry in NC, too. I've been watering my lawn this year. Normally we get 35+ inches a year and there's no need to water the lawn.. just cut it.
Jp how was your dinner man? sure sounded good?
574. SEFL
"oh and the proper verb use of genuflect is genuflection; I am catholic and I have never heard someone say genuflecting."

Genuflection is a noun, genuflect is the verb.
Hawkeyewx, I am glad someone agrees with me. Those percentages might be optimistic. If you look at statitics for late july-early august they are very slim for hurricane development with the current conditions......
who fran?
JFlorida,

u should look at some Aussie met websites (I'll go look to see if I have some links around). They have some interesting studies showing correlations between dry years in the centre of the continent and heavy cylone years on the NE coast . . .

Certainly the possibility of such a correlation exists . . .
PR blob looks better organized, the convection should build back tonight.

Jer, my neighbor to the south, I remember you:) You should post more often, you added plenty good last year.
Baha, you did.
I will let this go after this.
JohnnyCyclone is probably a totally non productive person to society.
My experience is that anybody that makes things harder than they are is just wasting time!!!!
I watched the horizon again this evening...looking West. Thunderheads loomed and dissipated. 60% of the US in drought conditions and I just spent $200 last month to water my lawn. We really need rain here.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html Check the last few frames near the center of the storm.

Is there shear blowing east-to-west north of of the storm and west-to-east south of the storm? I'd like to know why it looks like circulation on the outside of the system--counter-clockwise tendrils off the center.

Thanks in advance,

B
"Andrew92 at 1:11 AM GMT on July 30, 2006.
who fran?"

Please tell me you know who Fran is...? If you have no idea what or when that hurricane was then you need to get off this board....
i meant who were you addressing?
JP.. whats your latest thoughts on 99L and the blob in carribean? I saw a GFS run that showed some sorta system coming into Fla panhandle in like 10 days from now?
i have that feeling too
Hi all, just returned from a job in Covington. La. still a lot of blue roof's out there...
Get the medic!
Hi Bay.
BH yea the Aussies have good sites Upper east coast too is what I thinking and looking at the dust storms of the 30s I think there may be some other more non hurricane, but none the less interesting weather in store out west.

The Dust storms of the 30's moved an incredible amout of material I look at some of the storms coming off the Sahara and wonder if it gets hot enough, if we couldnt have something similar.
me neither, but aiming to be
Andrew92 I have no idea what you are talking about. I agreed with someones probabilties that Hawkeyewx posted. You then posted who fran, and I posted if you don't know who fran is than you're a lost soul. Nothing against you but I was just responding to your post. I have been studying hurricanes since I was 6 years old in 1989 when hugo b-line charleston, sc. I have pretty good percentages with predictions with tropical systems. I currently am working in savannah, ga as a meteorologist with the coast guard. Believe it or not they are very dependant upon a sound meteorologist.
That would never happen jp. Hurricanes love their work.
Just looked at the tropical/hurricane lead page: do you all realize there is absolutely no tropical activity (i.e. a depression of any kind) anywhere in the WORLD right now???

No wonder we're fetchin' after invests and inflections of words.
fran1983 it was no big deal. You asked "Are you a meteorolgist?" or something like that and i asked who you were talking to.
Interesting though a lot of the Dust bowl storms were in transitional/Winter months.
604. SLU
The latest GFS now latches onto 99L nicely and takes it wnw into the Windwards by 78hrs (Tuesday). Latest sat pics show that the system is winning the battle with the dry air and getting better organised again. Look at that monster coming off Africa!
It would be interesting if the NHC would quantify the chance of development. Is it 1%, 5%, 30%, 90%? What does "potential for development" really mean?It would be informative for them to state the % chance of a disturbance becoming a TS and/or a hurricane on a day-by-day basis over the coming week. That's not so easy to quantify. I'd like to see the NHC make such a 7-day chance of development forecast for each disturbance. Yep, it would be real interesting to see what they really think about those chances.

Here's this afternoon's quikscat pass. In my opinion, it shows absolutely NO LLC. Actually, it shows no circulation of any kind as of about 21z.

afternoon's quikSCAT pass

Thoughts on 99L This Evening...

Yesterday evening, the tropical wave exploded with convection. The wave has been one of the more convectively actives waves to roll off the coast of Africa this season. But that doesn't necessarily give the wave a far greater probability of development than the waves that came before it. CIMSS upper air and water vapor imagery depict upper level ridging centered just north of the Cape Verde islands. The western flank of the ridging extends westward to 40-50W longitude. However, since the ridge isn't centered closer to or directly over the wave, it is not making conditions very favorable. Instead, it has maintained the strong easterly and northeast flow over the Mean Development Region (aka easterly shear). The moderate upper level easterlies is one of the reasons why this wave in particular is so convectively active. The second reason is that the wave axis hasn't detached from the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Visible and Scatterometer Wind data clearly show northeast winds circulating around the north Atlantic subtropical ridge and southerly winds entering the picture from the equator. These winds are intersecting along an axis (ITCZ) that the wave is still intertwined with. Visible and QuikSCAT imagery also confirm that there is no true surface circulation along the wave axis. With that being said there is no surface forcing, the axis is being enhanced by the ITCZ, and marginal easterly shear. This is not a sign of tropical cyclone formation.Until a surface circulation forms, any convective burst will not mean much in the longhaul. To top things off, the northeast winds streaming into the wave around the subtropical ridge is causing dry air or Saharan Air Layer entrainment. A surface circulation is unlikely to form when the SAL is being fed into the system. The SAL and associated dry air enhances surface divergence, which is exactly what a tropical cyclone does not need. Furthermore, the global models can barely even detect this system. The global models don't seem to get any attention until they prog tropical development.

As of right now in my opinion Tropical Cyclone Development is looking less likley as this mess continues westward toward the Lesser Antilles.




jp, so you went to the same school as me.
so we just go by gut feelings and being around this stuff forever.
Got a question, just looked at satellite, do you see a little outflow coming from 99L ?
Yeah I joined in 2004 and have been there ever since. I love it to date. It's a job that will definitely put you on the coast somewhere. No hard feelings to anyone but I just hate people who get on here and talk rubbish
Baha, you did.

Oh, did I? (trying not to look forgetful)

That's good, because I can't find my links on this old laptop . . . LOL

JFlorida,
U said:
wonder if it gets hot enough, if we couldnt have something similar

U mean like Midwest dust in the ATL / GOM?? I suppose it could happen.
h23 theres nothing on that quickscat
I know it was a joke....
Lucky!
The big Fran was about 1995 in the Carolina's, no? I suppose there was a Fran in 1983, ass torm names cycle every 6 years, but it wasn't big enough to get its name retired.

Now, there was a Tropical Storm called Frances that never got over 50 knots, off the Southeast Texas coast, but it moved slow enough to cause a lot of beach erosion (to the point of dumping beach houses in the Gulf) and fresh water flooding. 1998, IIRC, I was in Houston for a job interview. Moved to Houston, then transferred to New Iberia, quit and moved to Houston again as soon as I could find a new job.

Rain delay at Busch Race almost over in STL.
Rubbish ? Sounds quite British to me.
Hey there how are we all tonight.
The wet phase of MJO has arrived for the most part in the Atlantic Basin.But still the core of this wet phase is in the EPAC...Things should start get going in Atlantic Basin in the coming days.





Good evening StormW. I'm just swell. How about you?
JP u got mail.
hurricane23, my research was explicitly toward that. I ultimately wanted to creat an index where certian #'s corresponded to #percentage of development. However, other develops lead me in other directions.
Actually not british. And for those who were questioning fran 1983, fran was the hurricane in 1996 that destroyed my hometown and 1983 was my dob. So whoever analyzed that fran1983 thing there is your answer. And yes, the CG does have meteorologist. Do you think they send there men into danger in the waters of the Atlantic?
Slow 56k phone modem, didn't try to look up season records.
Mails flying everywhere tonight. lol
Good afternoon everyone just sittin back and reading the imputs. Mississippi Gulf Coast is dry as well.
1983 was a funny year only 4 storms but two hit texas as hurricanes(one a major one)
lol jp
Yea, that's neat.
Diurnal minimum is really helping 99L
The NHC has a Recon plane to invest 12.0 59.0 on Monday.......If Necessary.
thanks JP for reply. hopefully u will get it fixed soon
hey wb tex
of course jp. everyone should under the circumstances.
yes, it definitely has a chance
even the GFDL has got itself together on it, although none of the other major models have
649. MZT
99L definately seems to be headed more NW'erly now. It may even be forming a bit of a band arc-ing to the north of the center, and another one to the east.

Still not as impressive as two days ago. But it's holding together.
lol, they probably would've. And everyone would complaining about even small pictures taking forever to load
Hurricane Warning

This is the old update for those that missed it.

99L continues to be weak but, is primed to develop. Convection has been increasing over the past few hours. I have made an update on hurricane warning including all the latest data up to 4:30 PM EST aboout 99L. This includes, satellite, computer model, SAL, wind shear, and SST data. It is all wrapped into a very informative analysis of 99L. Feel free to discuss 99L on my blog.
wow huge wave coming off africa. wonder if it'll develope in a few days?Link
jphurricane2006, more than likely.
Probably, the GFS has been on that for a while.
jphurricane2006, also imagine the arguements about reintensification once it got in the gulf.
657. cjnew
forgive my lazyness...

Whats the latest??
jp.....if there was a blog back in '92....they would be saying the same thing that's been said since 99l was born...this thing will be a td next update...no matter what the experts say or the charts show...people would have been no different then than now
i'll let someone else take it this time, lol
it seems to be at a higher latitude so it may stand a chance to develop.. but doesnt waves that develop off of africa at a higher latitude seem to generally become just fish storms ( recurve) early?
Hey cj, well #22(99 to most people) seems to be making its move.
663. MZT
99L has shown a fair amount of moxie - formed below 10 N, skirted the dry air, plunged through a cell of 30 knot shear. Now clawing it's way towards that warm Carribbean....

I almost feel it should have a chance to reach TS status, just for being so stubborn! Ha
665. cjnew
OH! cool!! sounds interesting!
MZT, lets create a disturbance with moxie category. Actually I had friends who drank moxie and if this storm has it, God help us :)
Just watched the COMET lecture on easterly waves. Seems that the blow up in the Carribean is typical. Neil Frank, intrepid movie star, civic personality and former head of NHC, described this in a paper in 1968.
Dr. Neils a movie star. I have some greats quotes from him but I would get marked as obscene.
669. IKE
Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on July 29, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The tropical wave and associated area of low pressure located about
800 miles east of the southern Windward Islands has changed little
in organization during the last several hours. Although conditions
only appear marginally favorable for development...this system
still has the potential to become a tropical depression.
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a westward moving
tropical wave continues over the north central Caribbean. There
are no signs of organization...and additional development...if
any...should be slow to occur. Nevertheless...the wave has the
potential to produce locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding over
portions of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola as it continues westward at
15 to 20 mph.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Monday.

798
ABNT20 KNHC 300226
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ONLY APPEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. NEVERTHELESS... THE WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN



There are some strong storms building over north central Florida now its strange, there is lightning all around. Pressures are high but there are some very hot spots on radar. Its progressing south.
Dr. Neil Frank, still with a 1950s style buzz cut, is the prime time weather guy on KHOU-TV in Houston.


increase in intensity
jp.....if there was a blog back in '92....they would be saying the same thing that's been said since 99l was born...this thing will be a td next update...no matter what the experts say or the charts show...people would have been no different then than now


On 19 August there was a general election here in the Bahamas - a history making one that changed the government for the first time since independence. The next day the results were the big news; the barely-there depression barely got a look-in.

At my house, we went to the grocery store to stock up; somehow my mom knew that Andrew was headed this way, despite the fact that we hadn't had a major hit since David in '79. Three days later a mercifully minute Andrew decimated Eleuthera and frighted Nassuvians.
Maybe my fascination w/ hurricanes started with Andrew.

I don't know if the interest would have been as high prior to Andrew, though. There were still lots of people who thought of Hugo (and Andrew, for that matter) as a once in a lifetime storm. But I agree, there were a few people - like my mom - who ignored the cheery forecasters and went out to get extra water, batteries, and canned goods.
The wave passing near Puerto Rico is coming together just south of the Island on Radar.
E. S. America


Caribbean
Evening all. Just go back in. 99L looks pretty ragged, although it seems to have more convection closer to the center then it did earlier.

We had som pretty intense lightining roll through here tonight also JF.

Still have to catch up on the models and other wave. Be back in a bit.

StormJunkie.com-Forecast models, imagery, wind data, marine data, preparedness info, and much more.
99l is really not looking so hot.

Be interesting to see if the circulation survives into the morning.
heh in other tropical news, 96W.INVEST (HENRY) has a TCFA now :D
Anyway, I'm out, folks. Gotta get up early tomorrow . . .

I will have to at least check in before I leave. I want to see how that new wave is holding together, also.
Good night guys. Will be back tomorrow. Maybe things'll be more interesting.
Just due south of Ponce, Puerto Rico about 40 or so mi - there seems to be a slight LLC on radar.
here at the dominican republic is stormy!
684. MZT
99L does seem to be filling in. There's a nice arc of moisture to the north and east. Notice the inner arc of convection forming inside that on the visible loops.

Just before I go, u might find this page from the NHC's Andrew report interesting and significant. Pay special attention to the 2nd paragraph . . .

G'nite!
688. MZT
There's no question 99L is moving NW now. It's not going to end up in Guyana.
could be jp - but something else seems to be in it watching the loop.
guys check this out it is sooo cool I love it. Don't know how I found it but I love it.Link
JP2006 if you have to ask that means the link doesn't concern you so don't bother looking at it and let someone else who does have the clue explain it to you thanks.
JP2006 I apologize for being Bitc*y towards you. Yeah I was showing how they start off as storms travel cross Africa and out into the ATL.
amazinwxman, chill out. JPhurricane2006 was asking a question, which is important here. I with my dial up would like to know what I looking at ahead of time to see if it is worth my time.
Hope I didn't offend then. I posted before I say the response.
703. MZT
It does seem like the central Atlantic is quite a guantlet for the waves right now. There may be a better chance of storms just popping up on their own on the Americas side.
I guess so, well I better go too. Sadly never get get the whole Africa wave loop to come in. At work I have a dial up, but not there much in the summer as the rest of the year.
I mean at work I have broadboad. O well. see yoi all tomorrow and we'll continue the sopa apera known as "As the waves churn".
707. MZT
I've tried to see some structure to that Carribbean mess, but I can't. It's been throwing up a lot of cloud tops, but so far I don't see it as being anything more than a tropical mess for a while.

99L is interesting. It's weak, but does seem to have some circulatory structure. If it gains more during the night and can wrap the convection we may finally seeing a TD here.

708. cjnew
Even if it doesn't become a TD but Fires enough convetion near the center to strengthen the circulation would be bad. It would up the chances of it getting to the carribean even more.
lookin pretty crappy
710. MZT
Well if anything happens tonight, I won't be seeing it. I would blog late for a Katrina/Rita/Wilma but not this. :-)

I do think we'l still be talking about 99L tomorrow. I don't think it's going *poof* yet.
Hey, just an "RFC" for everyone.

In looking at the RAMSDIS views (on a macro-scale) I note that the "blob" south of PR is diminishing. My question is, could both of these systems (both the blob and 99L) simply be diurnal heating events in the presence of instable atmosphere (i.e. the waves)?
JP do you think it will???
Well Blur I don't think so only because they made it almost all the way a cross before they started to dismantle...



Taco:-)
715. AndyN
I looked at the Africa loop...Looks as if another wave is about to come off the coast. The SST's are getting juicy and conducive...Looks like the Juy lull is coming to an end and the giant is awakening
Andy I thought so too...




Taco:0)
That wave's looking pretty impressive, although the wave after it is the one the GFS blow up.
Also, take a look at the little low at 35N 50W! Being sheard a bit, but it's there!
JP I was thinking the same way... I also think that because it has moved north that it will and maybe be our next storm to hit in about 7 days...




Taco:0)
Well I have to go to the store I will be back in a little while...




Taco:0)
723. AndyN
I will say spin was much more impressive Friday
good nite JP this link is sayin 99L is at 10N now with 25kt winds? what do u think? Link
Wow, for once there are no tropical storms worldwide... Thats good for a change, I guess.
728. AndyN
99L looks as if it is gaining it's signature again
hey JP I guess that can of pledge I deleivered 99L is starting to help huh LOL!!!!!!
I got a new logo!

Hurricane Warning


It links to hurricane warning.
thanks jp, one of the rare occasions I've used photoshop
well, good night JP. nice logo turtle keep up the great work!! have a good nite all chat tomm!
Hey everyone! Just checking out your posts - but I'll wait until tomorrow morning to put in my opinion on 99L, although it look like it is firing up convection right now.

Please check out my new website at http://www.wundergroundblogs.com for tutorials w/ using Weather Underground blog features. If you have any information to add to my articles, e-mail your update to the address on the website. Thanks!
Guys just checking in one last time tonight...Right now I'm looking at an 8-hour loop of the disturbance. Some kind of east-west boundary of squalls moved from 9N to 13N directly through the mid-level spin in 8 hours. That's a speed of 30 kts. Heaviest squalls were all south of 10N 8 hours ago, now they're centered near 12N-13N along that boundary. Not sure what the boundary is, but it looks like the structure of the disturbance is changing. Hard to tell on IR imagery, but the spin down around 9N-10N may have just dissipated as the boundary passed through it. The disturbance now looks like a well-amplified wave. Goodnite guys be back tommorow.

Hello all - I have been a fly on the wall, reading all of the comments for most of this and last season - with the exception of a comment here or there.

I am getting impatient with the whole season so far. I know that sounds crazy, but I live in South Florida and you would think I would be doing my best dance to ward these things off. However, I love nature and its wrath and fury. I drove through the middle of Katrina when it hit South Florida, sat on the patio at my apartment for Frances, Jeanne and Wilma and partied after Irene. I even drive a few hours to go through storms when they hit other locales of the state.

Anyway, I want to become more active and check out this site a lot more. The people are here on very informative and it is fun being armchair meteorologists.

Take care...
Welcome to the blog jetpixx

Cool that you also live in southflorida what area?I live a few blocks from the NHC in miami.
I just moved from Delray to Deerfield Beach...so back to Broward Co. (and one of the breakpoints!)
Wow, THIS blog- DEAD? I didnt know it was possible. no posts for a good 20 minutes i mean. 99L looks like an open wave now.
The dog just woke me up for a duty call.
It's hard to tell whats really going on with nighttime imagery. Looks like It's holding together to me.
NHC says conditions are marginally favorable for development.
745. IKE
Looks like 99/92L and the PR wave both have some sort of a circulation....
746. IKE
Need a visible satellite to tell whats going on.
747. IKE
From this mornings Tallahassee weather discussion....Long term...Tuesday night through Saturday.
The GFS shows the upper ridge breaking down Wednesday through
Thursday. An upper low and associated tropical wave crosses the
Florida Peninsula from the northern Bahamas into the northeast Gulf
Friday into Saturday. This would keep US in an unsettled weather
pattern with high probability of precipitation...but opted to stick with Middle Range chance
probability of precipitation each for now.
748. IKE
On a visible...looks like 99/92L has found some convection again. Also looks like it's headed for the islands in 24-48 hours.
749. IKE
My 5th post....

pressures have fallen 2-3 MB's in the western/central Caribbean...in the last 24 hours.
With the Bermuda high sliding north of FL around Wed and Thur (based on Miami and Melbourne NWS statements) It is not only going to pull the wave over PR more northerly over FL it is also going to allow 99 a chance to slide on a more northerly track. Whatever it is in 3-4 days is going to be an interesting concern for Florida.
Right now I would be in agreement with the GFDL on this chart. The other models will most likely shift north also later.




The GDFL is NHC's baby, they love that model and it has 99L developing into a TS, they usually go with that model.
Yep. But it is way too early for me to even consider what the models say about development. I'm just working on a track for whatever things might be.
Good morning guys....Just looking at the 5:30 from the NHC and the wave north of puerto rico has gotten a little better organized this morning.Also i would not discount the possibility that both 99L and the wave north of puerto rico begin to to show increasing signs of development.Lets see what today brings guys.Be back in a while. Adrian
GFS and CMC are both developing a storm around CV at 74 hours out. I haven't checked the others.
755. SLU
the GFDL has latched onto 99L with both hands and bring it to a hurricane ijust south of PR
SLU....Yeah....that should be interesting!
757. IKE
Can someone supply with a link on the models...my computer got zapped yesterday and I've lost my history files.
Morning all. IKE, many good links on one page. Sorry about your PC. That stinks.

Quick Links
Morning StormJunkie.
760. SLU
i doubt it will pan out .. i dont even believe this will become a TD again before the Antilles.

www.moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Interesting developments there SLU as now the GFDL is now picking up 99L and brings it to hurricane status.I will be looking forward to watching 99L's development today as far as thunderstorm activity goes today with it.
762. SLU
Guys are my eyes bad or is 99L trying to reform his center near 12n 51w? If it is then the system is actually a little better organise than we think. That center would be closer to the deepest activity.

We will have to wait for the 12z satellite classification for confirmation.
763. SLU
yeh today is the KEY day for the Antilles. It will determine the difference between us getting a few showers from a wave or us being placed under a tropical cyclone warning. lol
SLU....It's at 50 now and that's what most of us have been waiting to see.
Mornin all-newbie here I still get lost on the different sites to go to to look at circulation any tips.Oh and SLU if u get any rain pls snd to Century, FL (north of P'cola) we need it badly.
766. IKE
I rebooted my computer...working fine now.

Thanks for the links........
767. SLU
i just watched the latest microwave passes and it confirms what i just said .. the center is now near 12n/12.5n 51w
768. SLU
lol
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N48W 11N50W 5N52W
MOVING WEST 20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 11N50W.
770. IKE
8:05 AM EDT tropical weather discussion......Special feature...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 15n48w 11n50w 5n52w
moving west 20 kt. A 1012 mb low pressure center is along the
wave near 11n50w. This system still has the potential to become
a tropical depression during the next few days although
conditions are currently only marginally favorable for
development. Widely scattered moderate showers to isolated
strong thunderstorms are within 30 nm on either side of
5n47w 11n47w...and from 10n to 14n between 47w and 56w.
...Tropical waves...
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72w/73w south of 20n
moving west 20 kt. Numerous strong showers and thunderstorms
have shifted and now cover the British Virgin Islands and the
U.S. Virgin Islands from 17n to 20n between 64w and 67w.
Lingering precipitation over Puerto Rico still is possible. All
the coldest cloud top temperatures now are over the waters to
the east and north of Puerto Rico. Shower and thunderstorm
activity associated with a tropical wave has become a little
better organized this morning. Some slow development of the
system is possible during the next few days. Locally heavy
rainfall can be expected today in parts of Puerto Rico...the
Virgin Islands...and eastern Hispaniola. Widely scattered
moderate showers to isolated strong thunderstorms exist also
from 13n to 15n between 63w and 66w
771. IKE
99L is looking better this morning.

SLU...you may have heavy rain on the way.
Just got done looking at the models, and what I find interesting is the system that the CMC and GFS form off of Africa, but it looks to just sit there for days.

Sunny, you just have to learn to use the different imagery pages. If you have any specific questions about how to navigate those pages just email me. I'll be glad to help as much as I can.

As for 99L, I see the GFDL picked up on it, but I am not buying it yet. Still have3 to see what happens today. If the GFDL is correct, it looks like it should recurve out to sea after hitting the Bahamas. That is a long way away though and a lot can change.

773. SLU
yeh its ok ... we're used to these kinds of "weak" systems here
774. code1
We will have to wait for the 12z satellite classification for confirmation.

How many hours ahead is the above from CDT? I have totally forgotten the time difference since last year.
Where are you SLU?
Mornign code :)

The GHCC site has a neat feature that shows local and UTC. 8am is 12z
Excuse me for not knowing. Is 99L 99 latitude or am i missing something?
778. IKE
Just an invest number. Guess the next one is 100L
Hey Code,

There is a 5 hour difference in your time zone (CDT) and 4 hours here in EDT. I am off to get a nap but wanted to also wish you and everyone else a great rest of the weekend.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony
If the GFDL is correct, it looks like it should recurve out to sea after hitting the Bahamas. That is a long way away though and a lot can change.

It should head out to sea if it is something to actually worry about at that time. All of that depends on the high repositioning over FL. Right now I don't see that happening within these time frames. That would leave FL open and vulnerable through that model run.
Boy, there's a lot of "ifs" involved here...lol.
Either way I'm gonna have to keep an eye on the Carib wave. Too close to the US mainland to ignore. Some possible formation is mentioned this morning.
781. IKE
SLU lives in St. Lucia.
sails, 99L is the number that the Navy (i think) assigns to areas that are being investigated for development. The numbers run from 90L to 99L I think. THey restart after 99. That means that if the PR area were to become an invest it would be 90L, or maybe 91L.

I know I likely screwed up some of the specifics there, but that is it in a nutshell.
783. SLU
i'm in St. Lucia
784. IKE
I didn't know that SJ...wasn't familiar with invest before this hurricane season.

785. code1
Thanks guys. Hope you all have a good day.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL


A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 70W...EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
ACROSS E CARIB...WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH TOWARD S FLA. UPPER WINDS CIR
-CULATING ABOUT UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS THOUGH SHEAR THIS MASS OF
CONVECTION BUT AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD S FLA.
WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO GULF WED...UPPER WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...PULLING THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE N AND OVER S FLA WED
THROUGH FRI.
787. code1
oooops Good morning to all as well. Puerto Rico wave conditions for the next few days?
Lot's of ifs Rand, and there will be many more to come. My point was that the Bermuda high did not look strong enough in the current GFDL to prevent it from moving N and NE out to sea. Again, very, very, speculative, as I am not even convinced that it will develop.

The PR area will need to be watched today. Convection is starting to fire aroud the circulation, but I am not sure if it will persist.
I am not sure all of that is right IKE, but the basic concept is. May be the NHC that issues it, may be the number range is a little different.
StormJunkie...lol...plus we're talking about the GFDL here..LOL!
791. IKE
Personal opinion...odds are at least 1 of these 2 systems will develop. Hard to believe that one wouldn't.

Whether they make it to the USA is questionable.
What's funny about the GFDL Rand? Did pretty well last year if I remember correctly.
StormJunkie....My experience is that it works very well with already developed systems. Not so well with undeveloped systems. 99 is still an undeveloped system I believe, hence my humor with the GFDL. I believe the model for the track it has it on...just not the development yet.
good mornin good boys and girls..happy sunday to you
This track ...but only so far as Hispaniola. After that or before all this will change again.


796. SLU
the GFDL loves this 99L ... anyone seen the new 6z run?? .. it's even more agressive and leaves Florida very exposed too
Good morning ricderr.
Thanks SJ for the information. They just couldn't use the Lat/Long? Too simple I guess! Well the area of distrubed weather NE of Rico is looking better organized; however, there is a slice of SW upper level winds that are fighting againest development. With that said, the last few frames do show those hostile winds starting to abate! SJ what are your thoughts on this developing weather system?
SLU...That's for sure. I mentioned the Florida exposure that you just did also in an earlier post. It is the one thing that is concerning me for the mainland. I don't think you will have much to deal with...but we're going to have to see what happens today won't we?
Randrewl

Thanks! How ironic! I just logged on to see if there were any model runs of the current Blob!
Good morning all,

sorry, I mostly lurk as you guys are way ahead of me - I ws trained as an observer and short term weather guesser many, many years ago.

StormJunkie - thanks for the compiled links

to all who suffer from time zone demencia - Grin. Here's a nice US time link - it's java driven
Link

for the world's zones
Link

I used to chase Iceburgs in North Atlantic for the IIP and had to juggle with 3 different zones at same time and one (Newfoundland) is a 1/2 hour zone -Grin

802. SLU
thats right randrewl
I can understand that Rand, I don't know a lot about it's record on invests. Was too busy watching track and intensity of developed systems.....

Sails, Not real sure. Have not looked at many of the forecast maps or imagery. It has a circulation that looks to be just south of DR. The convection is also still increasing over this area. Have to watch it as the day progresses.

StormJunkie.com Quick Links for fast and easy access to the best free weather data on the web.
And for what it's worth - I've watched the GFDL for several years - I've come to weight it more than the others when evaluating their outputs
Thanks ice, and good to see you. I bet that was a very interesitng job :)
Well, the good news is that if the two tropical waves we are watching continue sliding north, crude speculators will have to wait another week for a system to enter the Gulf of Mexico.

My sister is trying to sell her house in Wellington (Palm Beach County). I think it has 4 bedrooms & 3 baths. Anyone looking for a house in this area?
I mentioned at around 6 or 6:30 this morning about this shift in the rest of the models more northerly...now here it is.



You're wecome SJ

Looks like 99 will take a day to decide what it will do - I agree prob go N
see you all tomorrow.
Good Morning All...

Sunday July 30th 9:00am EDT

99L became a little better organized overnight...also it moved north, now located at 11N......


Shear- The system currently has little shear to deal with but increasing towards the islands....

Dust- Heavy dry air to the north and west but on water vapor imagery seems to be not affescting 99L

Intensity- 99L is now 30mph, with a central pressure of 1008mbar.

Chances-Well it is almost a depression. But due to increasing marginally to hostile conditions, and lack of convection, it remains 15%.
Does any of the models develop this to be a TD, TS or H....?
456...only the GFDL.
morning everybody, this is my frist post since last season...but in regards to the models, the GFDL is better with deeper or stronger system and in this case developed systems, the model which should be looked at right now is the BAMM models b/c they are shallower models better for undeveloped systems but honestly their is not any good models for predicting undeveloped systems. My guess is that 99L will not develop until it gets closer to the lesser antilles and gains some more lattitude and in which case it may encounter more shear and dry air...so my best guess is to watch the system over PR and and Virgin islands right now

Great to be back everybody
The Puerto Rican wave has become a little better organized this morning. No dust to deal with but high wind shear to its north, but that not may be for long, as It looks like its weakening.

so Rand.....the GFDL is a more accurate model?
Weather456...In my experience the GFDL is not accurate at all on undeveloped systems regarding development such as 99L..see my above posts on this. I do however agree with the GFDL track right now.
Well, I must admit that 99L is hanging on pretty long....and now this morning looks more organize.
817. code1
Welcome back 12. We are seeing more and more of our old friends coming back now. Good to see. We also have a lot of new friends this year. WU is growing fast!!
818. SLU
While all the attention is fixed on 99L (and quite rightly so) the PR wave is actually looking in good shape and the San Juan radar is showing a tight swirl just NNW of San Juan. Plus surface observations there show light and variable winds in the last few hours which is one indication of a circulation trying to form to the north.
Weather456 ........and now this morning looks more organize.

Absolutely. Today will be interesting to see if any further development occurs. Today is an important one for 99L.
The latest QuikSCAT of 99L is pretty unimpressive.
SLU, your're right... the PR has more tightly organize showers than 99L
...Tropical waves...
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72w/73w south of 20n
moving west 20 kt. Numerous strong showers and thunderstorms
have shifted and now cover the British Virgin Islands and the
U.S. Virgin Islands from 17n to 20n between 64w and 67w.
Lingering precipitation over Puerto Rico still is possible. All
the coldest cloud top temperatures now are over the waters to
the east and north of Puerto Rico. Shower and thunderstorm
activity associated with a tropical wave has become a little
better organized this morning. Some slow development of the
system is possible during the next few days
Now the PR wave is getting some wind to it.
Skyepony, if that quick sat map is right i would say that 99L has a circulation but its not closed. That is not unimpressive. If that was to closed today there will bo doubt that TD 03 will form.
Most likely today as the wave at PR moves more northward it will encounter the shear effects more from the ULL in the Bahamas. That should suppress most of the development potential there for the short run. Hopefully long enough for it to pass over into FL without any development.
The cmc and the gfs both develop a storm coming off the african coast in about 4 to 6 days but the gfs develops it before the cmc, and also the gfdl shows the high breaking down just enough to turn 99L north right by flordia but the rest of the models show it not breaking down enough to turn it up the east coast
At times the last system we watched in the gulf was showing more circulatation than that. 99L has a good kink to it, yes the circulation looks slightly better then it did yesterday, but where has it's winds gone? I remain unimpressed with 1 red vector.
828. SLU
Thats true 456. 99L has 3/4 of a circulation now .... we need to get the westerlies blowing on the southern side and we're good to go. Having said that, the circulation is better define now than it was in last evenings QUIKSCAT pass
829. SLU
as long as the convection continues to explode then the winds will follow suit
new thread, ya'll....
new blog is up......
832. MZT
I'd put 99L at about 12N 52.5W, and we've been saying the warm water begins around 55W. I think if 99L has gotten this far and has retained circulation for this long, TD formation is fairly likely.

It's still pretty exposed on the west side, but 99L keeps on working at it.