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Two unimpressive Atlantic disturbances to watch

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:32 PM GMT on October 15, 2007

A low pressure system (99L) that tried to organize into a tropical depression Sunday in the Western Caribbean moved inland Sunday evening over the Yucatan Peninsula before being able to do so. The system is headed west-northwest at about 10-15 mph, and should emerge over the Gulf of Mexico tonight. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of about 25 mph to the northwest of 99L in the Gulf of Mexico. Satellite loops show only limited heavy thunderstorm activity at present. Wind shear is about 10-15 knots, and is expected to remain 10-20 knots through Tuesday afternoon. This may allow 99L to organize into a tropical depression by Tuesday night. A trough of low pressure is expected to pull 99L northwards by Tuesday night, and a landfall in Texas on Wednesday is a likely scenario. Since the storm may be moving almost parallel to the coast, it is difficult to say where in Texas landfall might occur. The trough will also bring increased levels of wind shear to 99L Tuesday night as it approaches Texas, and there is also some very dry air over the Gulf of Mexico for the storm to contend with. These factors should keep 99L from getting any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm. I don't expect the system will become a tropical depression, and NHC does not think highly enough of 99L to bother putting the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly the storm on Tuesday. The primary threat from 99L will be heavy rain.

On Sunday afternoon, 99L gave us a lesson on why it is difficult to predict the track and intensity of a system trying to get organized into a tropical depression. The storm initially attempted to form in the extreme southwestern Caribbean (Figure 1). However, strong upper level winds from the northeast were creating about 15 knots of wind shear here. When a new burst of heavy thunderstorms developed underneath an upper level anticyclone with very low wind shear (Figure 2), the center of 99L reformed there, jumping over 100 miles to the north-northwest.


Figure 1. Satellite image of 99L Sunday afternoon, showing the old center in the southwest corner of the Caribbean Sea, which strong wind shear due to upper-level northeasterly winds had exposed to view. A new center formed to the north-northwest of the old center. Image credit: NASA/MSFC.


Figure 2. Wind shear map of 99L Sunday afternoon, showing that wind shear was 15 knots over the old center in the southwest corner of the Caribbean Sea. The new center developed to the north-northwest of the old center, in a region where wind shear was only 5 knots. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS group.

Tropical wave approaching Nicaragua
A tropical wave (98L) in the southern Caribbean will move ashore over Nicaragua and Honduras later today. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no circulation and top winds of only 25 mph. The system is under about 25 knots of wind shear, and no development is expected before the system makes landfall. The center will remain over land the next two days, spreading heavy rains across Nicaragua and Honduras today, then into Mexico, Guatemala, and Belize on Tuesday.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning, and present my hurricane season outlook for the remainder of October.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

oh and V2? Dont work too hard :P
495. V26R 20:28 EDT le 15 octobre 2007
Evening Adrian How ya doin?

Just chilling with the wife on my day off and watching the movie 1408.It was pretty good.
503. V26R
Got three more hours and Im outta here
lftor melly
505. V26R
Got it on DVD haven't had a chance to see it yet, Maybe one of these days!
Well, if I DO *laffs*....I'll take pics and post them...havent seen much of THAT here lately :))
Thats why i was using TCyclone192...Well im off to update my blog...Be back in a bit!
Houstonian, your negative & angry verbiage vibrates off my screen, I have no beef w/you, but your tone requires me to put you on ignore. May I suggest you cool your temper off in the ocean that is behind you. The majority of us come here to learn and review weather, if I want negativity I can turn on the TV. I am here with my precious time to learn --not read insults. Please review your comments and think about what you accomplished tonight.
509. melly
Thanks latitude 25...You got it
Whatcha got on dvd?
What ever you do dont go into room 1408.
Surfmom?
513. melly
Latitude25.There is a wonderful gift shop, clothing shop named Latitude25 in Islamorada.Is that you??
514. V26R
1408 Supposed to be a scary flix
we need speel chex
Good evening Baha , Nice to see you again. Hope you had a nice weekend. Hows the GOMEX looking?
no but I buy almost all of my Christmas presents there. ;-)
lol, never heard of it. Last movie I watched was, "The Condemned" (pretty good) (sorry for off-topic..not that there's alot of 'topic' to discuss at the moment tho *giggles)
Evenin ic

..emt
520. melly
My speling isn't two bad latidude. you macking fun off me?
Houstonian you truly are a monomaniac and have been banned before for your ongoing rant about Beaumont and now you are obsessed with your pic. Im sure your pety response to this post will be see said pic.....get a life troll see rule #3.
BahaA - yeaa I am watching it, just don't know if I will be able to get off of work. I sure would love to get another southie swell before it gets cold.
Baja, I thought so. Forget what for, though. Gotta go google that . . . LOL

Pottery I went back to finish reading the report I took the NPO info from, and in it they suggest that La Niña / NPO2 seasons are likely to have an early ending (i. e. in October as opposed to November). Ironically their analog year was 1999, when we had Lenny, a storm no one could have expected . . . LOL
Hey BahaA, wish I could stay, got to walk dog, keep an eye on 99 and 98, hoping they'll give us rain or swell.
525. V26R
Boy SPC was close but not close enuff with their MSD

Link
Good evening all so is anything happening/going on with either 98L or 99L tonight? What do the models say (if anything) now on track?
527. V26R
Braz Ignore him!
Shear is really dropping in the GOM.Shear Link
I'm hopin, like you are.

I wanted to ask...can you post that link again (the one that sounds like psychedelic mushroom *laffin*) ....the wave forecast page you were telling me about. If forgot to SAVE it!!! :((
"My speling isn't two bad latidude. you macking fun off me?"

LOL bothus!

The only thing computers did for me was when they put spell check in Wrod!
What are you're thoughts on Dr. Gray's statements?
If everyone would ignore houstonian, then he really would not exist anymore..would he!
531. weatherman90 12:43 AM GMT on October 16, 2007
What are you're thoughts on Dr. Gray's statements?


You talking about Dr. Gray's claim of inventing the internet.....i think he did.....lol
LOL BahaA, my young buck just read your post and is roaring. It's call MagicSeaweed.com. the first page give you Gulf currents and swell height by color, then go to surf reports , there you will get wind, direction, currents and heights. It's off the buoys, so if you know a swell is coming you may have to keep checking till the buoy picks it up. The last disturb that came from the Yuc., was initially thought to send swell on Tuesday, but it stayed flat. I thought I got skunked, but then checked it on Wednes., and I scored really beautiful glassy waves. OK the dog is pleading. Adios my friends.
Haha exactly what I thought
LOL ! Thanks, I thought you get a kick out of my choice of words and my forgetfulness :)) We have a bouy I watch off Panama City...and wind maps. I'm thinking things should pick up in the next day or so. I hope for YOU they do too!
IC

I've been reading some reports and studies on the effects of La Niña on ATL tropical cyclones today. I haven't looked at the GOM for about 4 hours LOL

I noticed that 99L is taking moisture and instability into the area, though. I'm taking a break from reading now to go look at some current weather.
Evenin Keep
u dont have to ignore if banned come on admin take care of it thanks
Meanwhile, here's the 8:05 TWD on the GoM .. .

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A RIDGE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO PRODUCING ELY SURFACE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER. A 1006
MB LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N93W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 25N92W
27N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 90W-92W...AND FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN
87W-91W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER SE TEXAS MOVING E
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND FROM 29N-32N
BETWEEN 94W-96W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W PRODUCING UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...THE
SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.

545. V26R
Have we entered the Blog Replacement Cycle yet?
Folks i have a quick blog update published! Leave some comments, It would be greatly appreciated!
And here are the waves. Looks like they'll last into the CAR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING IN
THE CLOUD FIELD. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS N OF THE ITCZ ARE SHEARING MUCH OF THE
CLOUDINESS TO THE E OF THE ANALYZED WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS A LARGE AREA FROM 3N-18N BETWEEN
25W-37W.

LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15
KT. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W S OF 19N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1005 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 13N. CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO STRONG
UPPER NELY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
14N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN
83W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 6N20W 9N30W 10N50W 9N61W.
BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 12W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 39W-42W.
u got a problem there lat
C'monnnnnnnnnnnn convection! lol
"543. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 8:50 PM EDT on October 15, 2007
u dont have to ignore if banned come on admin take care of it thanks "

Ok, who put the funny stuff in KEEPERS coffee?
Houstonian,I quess presentation is everything.
soon v26 soon
V2!! lol
Hi Melly...had to take Madison for a walk....I don't worry about pre-season predictions. I am smart enough to know a threat when it approaches. (Although I was taken by surprise by the strength of Wilma crossing over us, yes, I live in Lake Worth also.) Dr. Gray predections are no better than anyone's elses. No one should be frightened by pre-season predictions.
"u got a problem there lat"

nope, just teasing you.

Other than a couple of things, the blog is going great tonight. Lots of nice people, being nice to each other.

That's nice.
Something to ponder....

The tennis game continues as long as the folks in the game keep hittin the ball back. If one stops hittin the ball back.....game's over *shrugs*
Evenin ladies....and gentlemen. I see it is certainly a lively blog tonight. Peace all. Yall are just a hoot. Do you notice there has lately been a bit of agitation in here...is it related to no certain activity out in the waters? :)
558. V26R
GWPB Only problem with that is that some people swear by what the Big Weather Guys say
and take it for gosple!
559. V26R
Excellent Point Baja
Evenin Baroness
561. V26R
Evening CB
*shrugs again*
"536. Houstonian 7:47 PM CDT on October 15, 2007
mom i hear ya, i really do, .. the pic is no accident and truely my sentiments to alot of arrogant, people here on this blog.. getting those people stirred up and offending them is EXACTLY the reason for the pic...

ive made plenty of legit and worthwhile tropical weather posts here over the years only to have most them followed by arrogant, personal, dogmattic and unjustified insults on this blog... "

I think we get the idea how you feel about "the pic". Let it go. If you truly feel you are being insulted, why would you want to come back here? To quote you...if you don't like it, don't look. Feel free to go. Really. It's easy.
498. melly 8:29 PM EDT on October 15, 2007
Oooops, sorry for my bad spelling.I have Dyslexia, 5 out of 4 people have it

I tried for years to figure out why my saintly Mother had a DAM bumper sticker. When I finally asked she said "Mothers Against Dyslexia.
565. V26R
LOL SVFF!!!
566. UYA
Evening group. Just snooping around. conditions do not look so favorable at the moment for the BOC or the GOM:


Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting



Lookin a little more favorable for RAIN *grins*
wxman,

I don't think 98L will return as a CAR or GoM threat. It (the Twave) may stir up some convection in the EPac, if it survives the transition.

99L is currently contributing to increased convection / moisture in the Gulf.
Current 98L WV:

As far as pre-season predictions go, this was probably by far the worst, and clearly shows why not to listen to the media hype machine:

Frightening forecast
Predictions are rolling in almost daily now from various forecasters around the globe all claiming that the La Nina effect will increase the number and intensity of the Gulf storms this hurricane season. Some are calling for as many as 17 storms that will hit all along the Gulf Coast.


17 storms to hit the Gulf Coast... LOL!!! Even 2005 had less than half as many storms hit the Gulf Coast (in fact, when you compare the percentage of the total storms that hit, more hit this year than in 2005, except that 2005 had major hurricanes)...
571. UYA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD


A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W/82W AND SOUTH OF 22N WILL MOVE ALONG 83W
BY 24 HRS...86W BY 36 HRS...89W BY 48 HRS...91W BY 60 HRS AND 93W
BY 72 HRS. AS IT ENTERS EASTERN NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST HONDURAS
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM
THROUGH 36 HRS. ACROSS BELIZE/YUCATAN AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA IT
WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM
BY 30-48 HRS. AT IT REACHES SOUTHERN MEXICO/GUATEMALA...MODELS
FORECAST THIS WAVE TO INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ AND SUPPORT/ INDUCE A
LOW ALONG THE ITCZ...WITH GFS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
Evenin Baha, V2, surfmom, et. al. Hows is it looking out there tonight. Guess the giant is gone. :(
The GoM looks a lot more moist tonight than it did 24 hrs ago . . .

Also that ULL in the Caribbean seems to be continuing its Wward movement.
576. UYA
Yeah, Baha....that TUTT rolling across the Carib has some possible ramifications. Like maybe in the Bahamas for a spin up.
I was wondering, when do the first forcast come out for 2008, and when is the date that we move into the 2008 names? Just Curious and not saying the season is over yet..very possible to get a couple more. Just wondering. Thanks
Speaking of that ULL if you look back we had several system develop from ULL's....
Respect: something which must be given before it can be received.
I got that from here, something that I saw earlier this year; it doesn't really say what forecasts said that (in reality, none; they just forecast up to 17 storms - but not all hitting the Gulf Coast or anywhere else). And actually, while it was wrong, Humberto did help set a new record high oil price (although not record high gas prices).
Just looking at the moisture flow out of the BOC, if you follow the path it would seem Florida might get some rain......ya.
Geek...do not worry about next year's forecast...I believe the names recycle every six years. Others in here will correct me if I am wrong.
577. HurricaneGeek 8:09 PM CDT on October 15, 2007
I was wondering, when do the first forcast come out for 2008, and when is the date that we move into the 2008 names? Just Curious and not saying the season is over yet..very possible to get a couple more. Just wondering. Thanks


I believe in December, for CSU's first forecast (although you might as well flip a coin at this point). As for the 2008 names, January 1st (as noted in Zeta's final advisory, the 2005 season ended when Zeta dissipated; the next name would have been Alberto had it decided to form in January).
576. UYA 9:08 PM EDT on October 15, 2007
Yeah, Baha....that TUTT rolling across the Carib has some possible ramifications. Like maybe in the Bahamas for a spin up.


Granted, it could end up anywhere, but right now it looks like it's rolling due west and has plans to continue doing so.

Did somebody say something about Dean and Felix carving ruts in the WCar??? LOL
No i ment like when will the switch to next yrs? after the calander yr is over. B/C like andrea formed before the seaon...understand? and i was just asking when it came out..i was just WONDERING!!
Why ALBERTO and not Eta?
I think it comes out sometime in May.
ok nevermind I see..thanks STL and WPB
Evenin' all.....anybody know why the Goes floater on 99 is completely black?
(Gee, I hope NASA paid their electricity bill lol)
2008 names start in 2008.

Dr. Gray et al (Colorado SU) do a pre-season forecast in early December. Then they revise in May, late July / early August, and Oct. Their current October forecast, if I remember correctly, is 4 additional storms, 2 'canes. Don't remember how many majors right now.

Will go google.
No, here is what the NHC says on their names page:

If a storm forms in the off-season, it will take the next name in the list based on the current calendar date. For example, if a tropical cyclone formed on December 28th, it would take the name from the previous season's list of names. If a storm formed in February, it would be named from the subsequent season's list of names.

The list changes on January 1st.
OK thanks STL very much that was what I was looking for...
Don't know how well this will show, but:

ABSTRACT
Information obtained through 30 September 2007 shows that we have so far experienced a slightly above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season. August had somewhat above-average activity (about 130% of average) while September had about average activity (about 92% of average). 84 percent of the average full season Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity has occurred so far this year. In an average year, approximately 78 percent of the seasonal average NTC of 100 occurs by the end of September.
Our October-November forecast calls for 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane and NTC activity of 43 which is well above the October-November average value of 22. Our well above-average prediction for October-November activity is largely due to the emergence of a now moderate La Niña event during the last two months.


The rest of the forecast discussion can be seen here. Interestingly enough, the December 06 forecast of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes is not that far off from where we are now.
595. UYA
Baha.....Granted, it could end up anywhere, but right now it looks like its rolling due west has plans to continue doing so.

Not what I meant. Anywhere from the SE to the NE quad of the ULL is game for a possible surface reflection. Most likely as stacked as the Upper feature appears I would be looking to the Central or Southern Bahamas for anything that might happen right now.

Concerning the ULL....

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
Baja (sorry typed baha earlier), when was the last time you had rain. We had a great soaking most of the day today.
I think people have been unfairly accusing CSU in general and Dr. Gray in particular of poor forecasts, when their forecasts have not been so bad. I do know they changed / modified their forecasting tools over the last 3 years, so I'm expecting their forecast will verify relatively well. The only part I don't like about it (and hopefully they ARE wrong this year) is the additional activity expected. I'm just not taking this relatively calm period for granted. It could indeed, as one report I read earlier today suggested, be the end of organized tropical activity for the year. OTOH, it could just be a lull, a calm before the storm[s] as it were. Certainly conditions continue to be amply conducive to development. Therefore I wouldn't rule Dr. Grey's forecast out just yet.

Maybe in 5 weeks . . . LOL
Since the tropics are slow....let's get a little light....What are the most annoying questions you have heard on here? Mine is....(paraphrased)...Will the system coming off of Africa (3000 miles away) hit Lake Worth, Fla. on Oct. 31st and ruin my Halloween party?
UYA,

We are both talking about the ULL bounded by 10N / 20N / 70W / 80W, aren't we?

I am not sure why u would expect formation in the SW Bahamas as opposed to, say, N Caribbean etc.

Geof, that's easy no one ever asked me any questions, annoying or otherwise.
602. UYA
am not sure why u would expect formation in the SW Bahamas as opposed to, say, N Caribbean etc.

Just keep tracking weather Baha. One day it all becomes clear.
I' did not say there could not be a potential NW Carib situation....did I?
I only stated the most immediate potential as far as my weak weather knowlege is concerned would be in the Central or Southern Bahamas...in the next 56 hours. There will most likely be a large plume of moisture flowing North into that area off Venezuela and there is now a building pressure gradient developing over the area in the Bahamas I mentioned.
The last good, hard rain we had (albeit short,but sweet) was when TD 10 came up at Ft. Walton. Most of the lows so far have dissipated at the soutern end...We're in those red areas (extreme drought) they've been showing on the maps
458. JimRockford 12:04 AM GMT on October 16, 2007 Hide this comment.
Houstonian 11:57 PM GMT on October 15, 2007
"if i had a nickle for every retard that told me that here."

If you had a "nickle", that would increase your net worth by about 50%.


LOL!!! Houstonian, u just got rawwed! Owned! burn...
Just keep tracking weather Baha. One day it all becomes clear.

Thanks for the pat on the head, UYA. I really needed that . . .

However, you did actually answer my question, so perhaps it was meant kindly . . .

I' did not say there could not be a potential NW Carib situation....did I?

Agreed. But I was indeed asking why the S Bahamas had the greatest potential, as opposed to say, the Caribbean. So we are on the same page.

I notice that TAFB is forecasting a ridge of high pressure to move into the Central Bahamas by Wednesday. Would this not work to inhibit development in the SE Bahamas? Also, if the ULL continues to move Wward at its current rate, I'm not sure how much SAmerican moisture will have time to accumulate.

This is definitely an interesting situation to watch . . .
606. beell
Harris County TX OEM Interactive Rainfall Map
Click "Draw Map"
Link
oh nooooo the clown again?
Beell the clown is back! Is it a clowning kind of day?
609. UYA
Oh for sure Baha....I love tracking ULL's. What I have learned is the lee-side.....the back wash area of an ULL is usually the area to watch for a reflection.....or a severe pressure gradient situation created by the ULL. I see that possibility North of Hispaniola in the next 48....probably won't amount to much....but I would look there for anything out of this for the next 48.
People keep saying this season was a "bust". Maybe it's reports like these which are influencing their opinions . . .

Ten Hurricanes Could Form In The Atlantic This Year
by Staff Writers
Miami (AFP) May 22, 2007
As many as 10 hurricanes could form in the Atlantic Ocean this year, including five that could become major hurricanes, US forecasters said on Tuesday. In all, 13 to 17 named storms are expected to form during the six-month Atlantic hurricane season that starts on June 1, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA.)
Seven to 10 of the storms could become hurricanes, including three to five that could reach at least category three on the five-level Saffir-Simpson scale, meaning they would pack sustained winds of at least 178 kilometers (111 miles) per hour.

The experts urged people living in hurricane-prone regions to ensure they are ready for what is expected to be an active storm season.

"Now is the time to update your hurricane plan, not when the storm is bearing down on you," said Bill Proenza, who heads the Miami-based National Hurricane Center.

Last month, experts at the University of Colorado also predicted 17 named storms would form during the upcoming season, and said they expected nine of them to strengthen into hurricanes.

Philip Klotzbach and William Gray also said there was a 74 percent likelihood of an Atlantic hurricane hitting the United States this year.

The level of storm activity will depend in part on whether the weather phenomenon known La Nina does develop and how strong it will be.

"If La Nina develops, storm activity will likely be in the upper end of the predicted range, or perhaps even higher depending on how strong La Nina becomes," said Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center.

I am going to take some photos and change mine up a bit.
ok I guess I can except the clown...at least it will scare off any major hurricanes for the Gulf Coast! so I guess it does serve a purpose lmao!
610. BahaHurican 8:58 PM CDT on October 15, 2007
People keep saying this season was a "bust". Maybe it's reports like these which are influencing their opinions . . .


Notice how they always focus on the upper end of the ranges? That is also similar to what I posted earlier, saying that not only could 17 storms develop, but that they would ALL hit the Gulf Coast and that 2007 could be worse than 2004 and 2005 combined.
Baja, went thru 3 years of drought, by the final year it was awful at my ranch. But it does get better. Next spring may be very wet for you.
615. beell
clown is probably late for the circus-admin had to count all fingers before re-approval, cb,gcd
Any thoughts about our Gulf of Mexico low? Have to say it doesn't look too impressive now...
I couldnt IMAGINE having to be concerned about stock during a drought. That'd be rough.
618. beell
Many in the SE have asked for rain from a benign tropical system. Just might happen.
A perfect wishcast.
Hey, Pat's going to have surgery tomorrow.

Everybody needs to keep him in thoughts and/or prayers tomorrow.

It wouldn't hurt to leave a message on his blog, either . . .

Patrap's blog
The way the flow LOOKS to be setting up...could be.
621. beell
Wet cold front pushing East
GOM moisture being pulled in by approaching front.
Moisture also increasing from the ATL.




Baja, we were lucky. We had put in two really large tanks, 4 years ago, so we never ran out of water. We had lots of friends who had no water for the cattle. We did not have any hay though as in no rain, no hay. So 4 years ago extremely wet spring, then drought for 3 years, now we have just finished a very wet season. Mother Nature corrects her mistakes. :)

BAHA, thanks for the update on Pat.
Mother nature has a way of doing that. It's all about..maintaining a balance
I know they are saying on my local channel that all the rain we are getting here in TX is gulf moisture.
Absolutely. She knows what she is doing:)
:)
interesting...
So I am not trying to go into that whole "is this season over" binge, baiting kind of comment, but do yall see anything happening out there? Gaw Lee I hope I am not opening that ole can of worms.
Here in Virginia we're feeling the drought. We need some rain. I hope we have some relief soon, this is the longest I've seen without any rain.
baroness,

Things look pretty quiet right now. Who knows what they will be like this time next week LOL.

Forecasts for the rest of this week don't look overly favorable for any serious development.
631. beell
Does not have to be serious to rain.
Precipitation forecasts through 2008. I assume this takes into effect the La Nina. East and SE
Drier than normal
Currently reading this interesting report on the 2005 hurricane season. What's particularly interesting is the graphical representations of data sets regarding wind shear, surface conditions etc. This information is interesting in a more general sense.
Thank you Baha. This is the first year I have watched hurricanes and discovered this blog. Seems the watchword should be patience, as in wait and see. I do hope our little giant brings some rain to the drought areas. Florida and Virginia.
ok so is 99L/98L whichever one it is back out over water in the B.O.C now?
I realize this falls under the annoying "will wave off Africa ruin my croquet match and tea and crumpets on the veranda next weekend" stupid questions heading. However I started lurking this blog when I put up my rod and flies for fear of over-stressing the brook-trout in low water/drought conditions. As the tropical season begins to wind down where should i start watching for a potential break for the southeast.
Here's an interesting nugget from this report I'm reading:

"The tropical multi-decadal signal incorporates
the leading modes of tropical convective rainfall variability
occurring on multi-decadal time scales. Three
important aspects of this signal, which have contributed
to the increased hurricane activity since 1995,
are 1) a stronger West African monsoon system, 2)
suppressed convection in the Amazon Basin, and 3)
the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation
(Goldenberg et al. 2001, Bell and Chelliah
2006). This signal is very important for Atlantic hurricanes
because it affects the entire set of conditions
that controls hurricane formation in the MDR
for decades at a time."
where should i start watching for a potential break for the southeast.

the skies? LOL
Wxman, I think 99Ls circulation is in the BoC now.

Shen, La Niña usually means warmer, drier conditions over the SE US. So I'm not too sure u should expect any real relief from drought conditions this winter.
ShenValleyFlyFish: Actually with the la nina in place, typically the southeast is drier. Hope for wet fronts to push through, or a good TS.
Since nobody ever talks about anything but the Atlantic, I thought I'd post this:

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160240
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2007

CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED WITH THE DEPRESSION.
THERE IS A SINGLE RAGGED BAND ABOUT 120 NMI TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER...WITH SMALL AND BRIEF CONVECTIVE BURSTS CLOSER TO THE
CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED SINCE 18Z...AND THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.

WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND A MEAN CENTER...THE
MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE...BUT OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MEAN CENTER HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. STEERING
CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...AND ARE CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE CYCLONIC
GYRE AT LOW LEVELS AND MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AT THE UPPER-LEVELS.
THERE IS CURRENTLY LITTLE NET FLOW ACROSS THE CYCLONE IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE...ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE EASTERLY SHEAR...THE TRACK OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON HOW MUCH DEEP CONVECTION
THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN NEAR ITS CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE MODELS ARE SPREAD IN ALL DIRECTIONS...A COMMON THEME IS A
CONTINUATION OF A CYCLONIC LOOP...ENDING WITH SOME NET WESTWARD
MOTION AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...ALSO SHOWS A SMALL LOOP...BUT WITH
LITTLE NET DISPLACEMENT OVER THE FIVE DAY PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS BRING THE DEPRESSION VERY
CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN ABOUT FIVE DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...AND IS NOT
FAR FROM THE STABLE STRATO-CUMULUS FIELD TO THE WEST AND NORTH.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ABOUT HOW THE
UPPER EASTERLIES ARE GOING TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
THE GFS MAINTAINING THE SHEAR...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET LESSEN IT
SOMEWHAT. BOTH THE HWRF AND GFDL BRING THE CYCLONE TO NEAR 50
KT...WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
FOLLOWS THE GFS/SHIPS SCENARIO.
642. UYA
ShenValleyFlyFish......I don't know where you live. I see a possible "early" start to the severe weather season.
So, Hopefully if everyone can survive the hail, severe straight-line winds and tornadoes......we might get some rain across the Gulf coast states soon enough.
Thanks Baha. Now how will conditions be over the GOM for 99L can it become at least a TS and where do models take it now if they even are picking up on it?
644. UYA
Yeah, last year was a supposed ElNino effect and it waqs still warm and dry.....I'm not buying the LaNina yet.
Just re-sodded some grass. Hopefully some rain coming to Tampa.
Shen, Baha, I remember someone the other day posted evidence that we might be hitting El Nino for the coming year. Now me, I don't know El from La, but I know it changes the weather pattern. Could be some relief. I think it was on the blog over the weekend, evening time. And it was one of the regulars who knows what they are talking about. Just what I remember.
644. UYA 2:50 AM GMT on October 16, 2007
Yeah, last year was a supposed ElNino effect and it waqs still warm and dry.....I'm not buying the LaNina yet.


The fact that it exists? or relevant precip?
Is a new LLC developing in the GOM at 25N/92W?
649. UYA
The fact that none of the "supposed" effects happened scwindsaloft.

I'm in Florida. It was extremely warm and dry last year in the Winter in a supposed El Nino influence.
So.....I'm supposed to be expecting even drier and warmer conditions this year?
I'm leaning towards.......I'll let you know after it doesn't happen!
I'm leaning towards.......I'll let you know after it doesn't happen!
LMFAO
638. scwindsaloft 10:44 PM EDT on October 15, 2007
where should i start watching for a potential break for the southeast.

the skies? LOL

ROFL
Shen, Baha, I remember someone the other day posted evidence that we might be hitting El Nino for the coming year. Now me, I don't know El from La, but I know it changes the weather pattern. Could be some relief. I think it was on the blog over the weekend, evening time. And it was one of the regulars who knows what they are talking about. Just what I remember.

Am I the one who told you that? I remember saying something about a possible El Niño developing during 2008, based on what I have heard this year.

Is a new LLC developing in the GOM at 25N/92W?

Interesing. Not too sure on that, haven't analyzed it much. But I do know that shear looks quite unfavorable for anything to develop. It's interesting... this year, shear was below normal during August, which obviously allowed Dean to reach Category 5 status. But in September and October, shear has averaged above normal, because of troughs becoming more frequent. I am like StormW and think that with another surge of upward MJO in the Atlantic, that we will see 1-2 more storms before all is said and done.
The wildfire season in Florida could really be extremely bad if we don't get some rain soon.
I'm leaning towards.......I'll let you know after it doesn't happen!

It's reasons like this I have him on my ignore list.

XD
Korithe yes you are :) So how or will El Nino help out the drought areas? Is it wetter than normal or what? See I do retain some of what yall tell on this blog.
656. UYA
No, Kori.....you can't ignore me. All I ever hear from you is how many you have on your ignore list.
No, give that old line a break man.
If everyone is on your ignore list.....then what will you have to read?
Korithe, If I used my ignore button then this blog wouldn't be near so interesting. Actually I used it once, but the person was hateful and obscene. But I like reading your comments so please don't put me on ignore.

Now can I get an in the nutshell kind of definition on the difference between El Nino and La Nina, and do these start at what time of year?
Strong shear on average has lifted further north 100 miles in 3 hours
Japan Meteorological Agency

WWJP25 Weather Chart (0000z 16Oct)
=================================

LOW PRESSURE AREA (98W)
11.0N 138.0E - 15-20 kts 1008 hPa

moving west slowly

----------

Mauritius Meteorological Service
Weather Bulletin (0000z 16Oct)
============================================

LOW 1008 HPA NEAR 5.0S 69.0E (92S.INVEST)

LOW 1010 HPA NEAR 7.0S 51.0E (Former PT 01)

I'm fixing to head to bed, but baroness there is a lot out there on the 'net about La Niña and the whole ENSO thing.

This is a good place to begin, though.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/enso_patterns.htm

Be sure to click on the "weather impacts" link at the bottom as well.

...things may be a smell near the GOM, with the shear dropping like it is.
Thanks for the update HGW. I have been reading reports about ENSO effects on ATL tropical weather, so have been neglecting current weather.

Anyway, I'm saying good night to everyone. I'm tired, and I have to get up early tomorrow morning. I'll check in briefly before I head out in the a. m.

Ya'll rest well . . .
662. moonlightcowboy 3:24 AM GMT on October 16, 2007
...things may be a smell near the GOM, with the shear dropping like it is.


Cowboy,
i thought the same but, NHC does not agree...lol
000
ABNT20 KNHC 160225
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

666. beell
Could still squeak out a smell
...if we could just get a long rain, a lil smell would be jus fine!
Gonna try to shut the eyes for a few. Good nite everyone. P.S. Don't fight.....lol
Have a good sleep, TSpin.
669. moonlightcowboy 3:37 AM GMT on October 16, 2007
Have a good sleep, TSpin.

Thanks Moonlight....i will try counting rain drops....lol talk to ya tomorrow...
671. beell
Rain comin at ya mlc as requested
Nite TS
That's a good thing, beell! Thanks for all the drumming! 40 days, nights? Well, we don't need that much, but a small flood'd be maybe okay.

--going to post something soon on the GW subject that Doc's been talking about in his blog. I hope a couple of the GW debaters are around, but prolly won't get there tonight!
I beleave a new center is or has formed at 23N,90W looks to be drifting north.....
674. beell
Would love to read and consider A GW piece. I really should bone up on this stuff to add to the fire this winter here on the blog.
cattle, I never plan to put you on my ignore.
Yeah, beell, it could heat up with the prez election coming up.

--Yes, stillwaiting, it does look like a new center is forming around 23n,91w? Maybe something's gonna change! It's the tropics, right?!!!
677. UYA
Nah, no reform that I can see.
UYA, sure looks like a new center to me, further north. Also, I have GW topic, I'd like to discuss with you. You have WUmail.
679. beell
My one and only GW post mlc-in true clownish fashion. Not much meat here.
Posted By: boobless at 6:24 PM GMT on August 24, 2007.

First and last GW post for me:
I'm sure you've heard variations of the following opinion before. Here or somewhere else. But a good one imo: It is probably too late/impossible to return earth to "normal". If GW is due to some other process we can't/don't see/prove (insert your theory here)then the final doomsdays of extremely high afternoon temps are inevitable anyway. Closed loop system here on earth. Too many fish in the tank.

On a lighter note,cow flatulence has been blamed for a portion of this controversy. This is unfair to cows, but if true we need to thin the herd. If you asked a cow for a root cause I'm sure they would blame it on too many people. Anybody have any data correlating world population w/GW? My kitchen is too hot and crowded at Christmas when all of us get together. Time to thin the herd? Just as long as me and mine make it through the first cut ]

CO2 production from GW discussions (present company excepted) across the globe this very minute would choke a smaller planet.
Things are warmer then they were. I believe this. All I can suggest is that the Met community learn the new rules for heat distribution and tweak the models as required.

So, let's sling some heat around! Bring on the waves,blobs,swirls and storms that affect sparsely populated areas only.
Moo
-- beell, you may be right and I haven't studied it in great depth, but I have listened and done some reading. Consequently, I have formulated an observation, near to an opinion. There are a few things that still have to be researched, but short of that, I hope to share some ideas within a few days.
good evening all, i should say good morning
682. beell
look forward to it bud-will treat w/respect-a trademark of mlc.
Gonna go warm up my part of the globe.
G'Nite all
Try again, UYA.


Have a good sleep, beell.
684. UYA
I don't see the mail Cowboy.
track mark 17.1n/31.8w heavy convective actity in the area
Looks like some action about 1000km's off the east coast of The Philippines, I just hope what ever it is moves through before my family and I get there next Saturday night. What does everyone else think? Cheers AussieStorm
Link
Link
Interesting documentary if/when ya have time

CBC-Doomsday Called Off
How come Dr. Masters is posting that there's going to be a landfall in texas for 99 but the models show it turning towards the East before landfall? Im confused??? Can anyone explain?
i try too help


no land fall at all from 99L


99L is RIP wind shear way too high


go out and in joy your week

soon it will be GW season
a good night to everyone. Just got in from the hospital. My daughter is getting better, the kidney is working and the five month along babygirl seems to be unaffected by the kidney infection. I'm about to fall out, so I'm gonna hit the rack. Thanks for your prayers. Later.

Chuck
Hey Taz...what's GW season??
Hey all,

99L looks like it struggling to get organized as it moves in tothe Southern Gulf of Mexico. Does anyone have any thoughts on how much of a chance this thing has. I wonder why the good doctor says that 99L will hit Texas when it looks actual like it might skirt Texas and move northward. Any predections?
The most interesting system on earth right now is around 33 north/15.5 west. A low pressure has developed deep convection over it, and it is centered over the central med. VERY INTERESTING.
Hi all:

Has anyone else noticed the explosion of activity in the northern Gulf of Mexico. I am currently trying to get a pin point location on 99L to see if this activity is connected with 99L. Anyone who has any info please chime in.
woke up and I know nothing strong is out there, but this does give me a little pause.... Link
Interesting, GAGuy. Where is this buoy at?
Morning guys. (I'm reserving the good for now - might need it later :o).

I'm gonna look at sats and stuff - will be back shortly.
Hmmm. Looks like the FL Panhandle and Big Bend area might get some rain this a.m. . . .

Anybody see a circulation in the blowup at about 15N 30W? Looks like an open wave to me.
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 160523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED V-SHAPE CURVATURE IS
OBSERVED BUT IS DISTORTED SOMEWHAT BY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. BROAD
AREA OF CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. SEE.ITCZ
BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. VERY
LOW AMPLITUDE LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED
WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 20N WITH A 1005 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE. WAVE IS MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND LOSING DEFINITION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 80W-88W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N20W 9N35W 10N55W 9N63W.
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 3N-20N BETWEEN 25W-34W AND FROM
3N-13N BETWEEN 34W-45W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A SUBTROPICAL
JET OVER TEXAS WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WELL INLAND OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST N OF
CORPUS CHRISTI. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 22N94W ACROSS THE N GULF COAST NEAR
PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO OVER THE CAROLINAS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE
E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM E CUBA NEAR
23N83W ALONG 27N86W TO 28N90W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
W ATLC EXTENDS W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE
SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
18N94W THROUGH A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 22N94W THEN NE TO NEAR 29N87W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 120 NM OF
LINE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W TO 28N90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF 82W ENHANCING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. LARGE UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED
NEAR 14N76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 69W-80W. LARGE UPPER
HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 69W TO JUST W OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
30N73W TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N77W AND EXTENDS OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WELL N OF THE
REGION EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W W
ALONG 31N55W TO 31N65W WHERE A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125 NM OF A LINE
FROM 28N68W TO BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N78W. A LARGE
UPPER HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N53W COVERING THE AREA
N OF 15N FROM 30W-65W. A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS ACROSS THE E ATLC ALONG 18N34W AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER HIGH TO NEAR 13N57W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLC
N OF 20N E OF 60W WITH A 1022 MB HIGH JUST E OF THE AZORES AND A
1019 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N22W.

$$
WALLACE

Took a peek at radar this a. m. and it seems points from west of NOLA to near Panama City will get the wet any time now. I'm sure AL residents will be glad of that.
Amen from Alabama....we'll take an all-day-er...
Morning Folks. Hows it going? I see nothing impressive on the tropical front. Major storm system in the midwest still bringing bad weather to the plains.
Tropical Cyclone Forecasters Reference Guide

Link
Lets hope all that precip make sits way to the southeast also. GA, AL,FL, SC, NC all need the rain
Hey Bone,

Some rain along the drier part of the Gulf coast is the big news today. Maybe some will even get to Central FL .. . .
Thanks for that link Baha looks like some good reading this AM
Wow.

I'm not awake. I don't want to be awake. Coffee is not helping . . .
I read only one subsection so far, on large scale oscillations, but it was very interesting and informative. I've bookmarked for future study and reference.
thats chapter 2 do you have a link to all chapters?
wow this is an impressive area of disturbed weather! Didn't see it yesterday. Not saying it will develope but just that it is an impressive area covered for this time of year

Bone, this is the most extensive collection of links to web-related weather sources that I've ever seen. I think it beats StormJunkie's, and that is saying a LOT . . . .
Tropical Cyclone Forecasters' Reference Guide

Table of Contents

This is really a great find. It's almost enough to wake me up . . .
wow Baha that was agreat link. bookmarked and will take several mintues to disceminate all the info. wow
It's raining again here [sigh]. I'm not ungrateful or anything, but it sure has been raining a long time here . . .

Some distant thunder, too (sounds like off to the west).
Baha this is a great link from that page

Mark DeMaria
cant wait for some rain. well is kinda low and I am sick of changing the filter
Looks like this little cell of rain/clouds is headed our way. This means driving to work in the rain :o(.

another awsome link for those that want to make their own forcasts!!!

NCAR
Sounds like the centre of that little blob is now moving over us. Rain / wind has increased radically. Will go out in a minute to check wind speed / direction.

That Forecaster's guide website is a veritable gold mine . . .

Added Comment:

Heavy rain out there! Cold, too - LOL. No real winds though, only an occasional gust from the SE or ESE. I'm hearing thunder but not observing the lightning, so it's likely inter/intra cloud.
in the process of analizing the conditions in my area. Hopeing to see some weather from that system in the Midwest. But unfourtunatley it appears its center will track to far north over the Great lakes to generate anything beyond scattered showers :( All dependant on track and how strong that front stays.
CONUS Storm System

UHOH :( Dont like the sound of the SPC long range forcast. I have to go back and relook at the data I MUST have missed something

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
DAY 4 /FRI. OCT. 19/ AHEAD OF STRONG/PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD
OF A MOIST/AT LEAST MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE DAY...EXPECT BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC SEABOARD -- FROM NEW ENGLAND TO FL -- THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WIND
FIELD...SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS
I knew something like this would occur. The lack of cloudiness over the Gulf during the past few days caused the lower troposphere to become warm and humid but no clouds could of form as dry air was present almost down to the surface. As the dry air lifted into the mid-upper levels this created a unstable situation. Dry air over warm moist air is an unstable situation. In addition upper diffluence which favors rising motion of air enhanced instability even more.


And thus the very cold cloud tops in a region that was enveloped in stable air a few days ago.

Weather456 news is saying today my be the worst severe weather outbreak since spring. And could last into the weekend as it progesses eastward
I just hope that we get some of the rain that Pensacola is getting down here in Gainesville. We need a good downpour...for about 4 days! :)
Morning 456,

Good take on the development in the northern Gulf. I think the approach of that front may also have had some influence. (basically kept moisture from drifting west, if nothing else)

g8r looks like you will get something out of it today



here is your 5 day prediction totals

BahaHurican, Mornin


I would like to how the surface trough (N Gulf) interacts the approaching front.
This rain in the NE Gulf is blessing for those who live in that region of the world. Good luck everyone.
not a drop of rain here in Biloxi, Ms..yet haha
733. IKE
Raining here in Defuniak Springs,FL....just like the GFS has been forecasting....a believable model...

Rain and 70 degrees....

Link
Is it me, or is that ULL filling in?

456 the surface trough would give additional focus points along the front and also additional vertical shear thus increasing the risk of severe. This front is a very strong front, typical of early fall, and is able to overrun weaker troughs and fronts. Anytime you have this overrun the severe threat increases
Right. The rain has held up here, so now I can leave.

Have a great day, all!
Thank You for the maps Bonedog...if you are in C. Florida you may get a little luckier than us...but some is better than none!
BBL
g8r i am in NJ I have a few more days to wait for this to approach. I used to be in florida though so I feel for you folks
My bad...not sure why I thought you were in C. Florida.
wed and thursday will be a wild ride folks. The models are in agreement that the storm system that is hitting the PacNW today will transfer its energy to the midwest low within the next 36 to 72 hours and bomb it out(<980mb cmc/ukm, 980-984 gfs/ngm). Watch out for large tornados, hail, heavy rains. This might be a major outbreak week :( Eastern Midwest, OH/TN Valley wed/thur followed by the EC of fri/sat.
Its ok G8R. I lived in FL for 4 years and still have a home there.
Morning all. Rain is in the forecast for Wednesday, just foggy this a.m. in TX. Yesterday there were areas that received 6".
What's the latest gang? Any rain headed for FL? I see that things are going to be interesting in the midwest headed east.
Morning barroness
4me look at post 729. Thats todays and the 5 day rain forcast
Hey Ike..we got rain too!!!!
Looks like North Florida is wetter than predicted today. Heavy clouds look to be blowing up from New Orleans to Tallahassee already this morning.

So how far off were the early tropical storm predictions? The suface temps have definitely been hot enough and we have had large patches of low wind shear. African Dust hasn't been an inhibitor for weeks.
Puzzled.
Morning Bonedog. Last night it was mentioned that Patrap is having surgery today. I believe his wife is passing along any well wishes from his blog, so yall might want to drop him a note.
Ok i"m sure this is a basic question..but happens when the cold front and tropical moisture run intoeach other?
thanks baroness I didnt know. i will drop a line.
750. aubiesgirl 7:59 AM EDT on October 16, 2007
Ok i"m sure this is a basic question..but happens when the cold front and tropical moisture run intoeach other?


Heavy soaking rains :)
752. Bonedog 12:01 PM GMT on October 16, 2007
750. aubiesgirl 7:59 AM EDT on October 16, 2007
Ok i"m sure this is a basic question..but happens when the cold front and tropical moisture run intoeach other?

Heavy soaking rains :)
Action: | Ignore User

SWEET!!..man it sure is dark here on south eglin afb
754. pcola
Raining in Pensacola for hours now! No lighting no thunder just gray skies and rain.
Thanks Bone.
This is just what the panhandle needs. I hope you guys get a soaking. I hope it makes it to the w coast Bradenton.
This will be a several day event. Moving west to east. The front should pop off the EC of FL on Sat or Sun so it may take a few days to get there but looks like everyone will have a good days rain from this.

your welcome everyone. Glad I can help. Feel free to ask away.
uuggghhhh still no rain in Biloxi, looks like Jackson Co to the east of us is gettig wet now

it is breezy and sticky humid
Could the ULL in the Carib. be helping to enhance a spin in the Bahamas
Good Morning...Help me out folks...Listened to NHC outlook on the radio this morning, talked about no development in the SW Gulf of Mexico, but, I noticed all the clouds around the Panhandle, get to the office, check out the Rainbow Loop, and see a big "blob" of convection South of LA moving towards the NE...Whats going on Ike?............Is this some type of overnight anomoly, or, was anything forecast by the models in the Northern Gulf this week........
morning StormW
I missed it.... what is Pat getting operated on? Hope its not serious!
765. IKE
It was forecast according to the GFS.
Thanks Ike...Is it just basically part of a "severe" formation ahead of the cold front?...
oh no poor Pat! Sending big get well hugs to Pat!! Get well soon buddy!
769. IKE
From Tallahassee,FL. discussion....

"Of particular interest is a weak low (inverted trough/Ely wave) over
the scntrl Gomex. Sat shows circulation with NE moving moisture
converging with north/northwest moving moisture from southern Gulf. Large area of
high Theta-E allowing precipitation to expand rapidly towards coast in line
with outflow boundaries. This aided by position of Virginia high and Gulf
low turning local flow more southerly...which will help pull plenty
of moisture up from the Gomex across the region. Sat imagery still
shows relatively dry air over the County Warning Area...although much moister air is
developing and progressing rapidly north-northeast towards Alabama-MS-wrn Florida border."
It's tropical moisture interacting with the end of the cold front, and some of the entrained energy from 99L.
Thanks Storm.......Guess it will be a little rainy for Florida today.....Hope we don't get any tornados later today....
771. IKE
It's a washout for Defuniak Springs for now....

Link
deleted for double post
at least you're getting some rain Ike!
774. IKE
gulfcoastdweller 7:33 AM CDT on October 16, 2007
at least you're getting some rain Ike!


Yep...just what we need.

Looks like a few inches over the next several days...clearing up this weekend.
Could that ULL aquire a lower level circulation or are the conditions too unfavorable? It really looks like it is getting more moisture to wrap around it.
Been raining for a few hours here in Destin. We certainly need the rain.
weathers. right now its unlikely. There is no low level convergence, no upper level divergence, shear is high around the area (yes low over it but not around), shear forcasted to increase.
Good morning from beautiful, RAINY :), Panama City Beach
Amen, FishHead. I woke up at 6:30 and it was raining then. Had a nice T'storm roll through about a half hour ago.
Check out the wind at the observation sites.
Great site from Cape Coral
Looks like Pensacola will catch up on its rainfall defecit this week from 99L.
P'cola? Did you read the synopsis for our area? Looks good for some catch up. (scroll down for it)

Link
20mph winds with a 32 in the Tstorms. Little blustery out in the GOM and Bahams today
Gmorn from boston,looks a little rainy on the panhandle this morning which is good news I assume
jp and NEwx...

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DAY 4 /FRI. OCT. 19/ AHEAD OF STRONG/PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MOIST/AT LEAST MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY...EXPECT BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC SEABOARD -- FROM NEW ENGLAND TO FL -- THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD...SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.
Morning JP.....Mornin NE

LOL, I've already been outside walkin around in the puddles barefoot *laffs*
I have one request Florida,please get you rain now,flying into Tampa last weekend of the month,expect beautiful weather!!!!!
I hear ya JP. Rather have the invest roll through with moisture then a tropical system.
785. NEwxguy 1:02 PM GMT on October 16, 2007
Gmorn from boston,looks a little rainy on the panhandle this morning which is good news I assume


Boston is probably very overcast this morning with that Indian win last night...lol
792. TampaSpin 1:07 PM GMT on October 16, 2007
785. NEwxguy 1:02 PM GMT on October 16, 2007
Gmorn from boston,looks a little rainy on the panhandle this morning which is good news I assume

Boston is probably very overcast this morning with that Indian win last night...lol

Agree,looking very gloomy this morning
how come everytime I hear about the Indians in the playoffs I think about Major League LOL
790. NEwxguy 1:06 PM GMT on October 16, 2007
I have one request Florida,please get you rain now,flying into Tampa last weekend of the month,expect beautiful weather!!!!!


Its always great here even when it rains...:)
LMAO
Good Morning JP
797. TampaSpin 1:09 PM GMT on October 16, 2007
790. NEwxguy 1:06 PM GMT on October 16, 2007
I have one request Florida,please get you rain now,flying into Tampa last weekend of the month,expect beautiful weather!!!!!

Its always great here even when it rains...:)

Only there Sat through Monday,need sunshine.
LOL JP!!! Gee, I play guitar. Maybe we should collaborate *laffs*
LOL Tampa!!
Lots of overshooting tops with the storm complex in the gulf.

*laughing really hard now*
The higher tops offshore are runnin' in the 20k-30k range. Earlier, some were up around 40K. They've come down a little.
OMG, JP!! ROFL!! And he can PAY us by just SINGING it :))
I noticed that Storm. Just how bad do you think it will be for us on the EC? Specifically New England/MidAtlantic
Dagnabbit, JP!! My sides hurt!!
Morning Storm.....mornin JFV
Morning JFV
You MAY be home and not in this mess
Im off to work at eleven, I must confess

ROFL
819. BajaALemt 1:20 PM GMT on October 16, 2007
You MAY be home and not in this mess
Im off to work at eleven, I must confess

ROFL

Ok,when are you two audition for American Idol
LOL Good Idea. Actually, I live about a 1/2 a block from work. Maybe I'll just walk IN.....barefoot

NE, Maybe next season but we'll be lip syncing to John Mayer!! :))
825. jphurricane2006 1:23 PM GMT on October 16, 2007
hate that show lol

Simon's going to be hurt
StormW
Will the front make thru Tampa or stall out.
JFV you go to school at FSU
how come SPC has us under a possible severe event box on friday non of my local met offices even make mention of precip. All they say is we will have a frontal passage.

Does this mean the local mets dont feel anything will happen or does it mean that they havent seen the SPC box yet?
LOL !!
Good morning Baha, StormW,JP,JFV, and everyone else. It sure is nice to check in and see a little light heartedness and laughter. Hasn't been much of that here lately.Glad you are enjoying your rain we finally dried up enough so the mushrooms are not popping up everywhere.I have been enjoying sunny warm days while I can in my backyard full of butterflies. It has been incredible.Thanks Baroness for the heads up on Pat's surgery today.
This mornings Quikscat of GOM
Good mornin Miss ic...

Oh!! The Monarchs!! Aren't they beautiful? TONS of them heading south!!
speaking of rain,did everyone see the rain the houston area got yesterday?
Cool. Local weather just said we had 30-35 knot winds in that last storm that blew through. Keep 'em comin'...(I LOVE storms)
New Jersey StormW
849. V26R
Morning All
Thank you everyone. Yes Baha, they are beautiful. I love flowers so the hummingbirds and butterflies love me.
Mornin V2!
853. pcola
Baja, the monarchs! Thanks for the comment. 2 days ago there were hundreds in our yard. I got the camera and started taking pictures. I wondered what was going on.......
854. V26R
Morning Baja

Good One STorm!
Im up in the woods LOL I am so far from the highway there isnt an exit. But if I had to take one from the highway it would be 160 :)

They have us under Friday StormW
856. V26R
Bone SPC is showing us for the Day 4 but NYCNWS isn't even mentioning any threat for Boomers even in their forecast discussion!
Strange
morning all...Whats this about a severe weather outbreak?
P'cola. They go from up north down to mexico. Pretty amazing trip for something so small and delicate! They started heading down a few weeks ago...indicator the weather's changing, I guess
Long range for the northeast hints at a big warmup the beginning of next week,the ridge wants to keep building over the east coast.
Thats what i was asking Storm about V2. Kinda strange
Sorry, I meant Baja.
That ridge better break down by November so we can get some cold weather :) My fish dont know what the heck is going on. One day they drop down and hide getting ready for the winter then the next they are at the top looking for food
855. Bonedog 1:39 PM GMT on October 16, 2007
Im up in the woods LOL I am so far from the highway there isnt an exit. But if I had to take one from the highway it would be 160 :)


Thats called a redneck.........lol

ic.....so'kay. I should probably start closing posts with "....emt" so us baha/baja's arent confused lol
....emt
Tampa?

A.........YANKEEEEEEEE...redneck

:))
Bone,
you know its coming,I have a feeling December is going to be very cold this year.
And Im proud of it Tampa LOL
Bonedog..there are woods in Jersey?
yea I hope so NE these warm winter stink
Morn'n all. Lots 'o' rain here on the west side of Pensacola this a.m.


Ya'll keep writing the lyrics and I'll set 'em to music for ya.
864. BajaALemt 1:44 PM GMT on October 16, 2007
ic.....so'kay. I should probably start closing posts with "....emt" so us baha/baja's arent confused lol
....emt

So are you changing your name from ICmoore to ICless......lol
Yes Lake. I live up in west milford, largest township in the state and surrounded on 3 sides by State Parks. I actually have bears and deer in my yard each day

Link
wow, I thought it was all burbs..you never hear about woods in Jersey..unless its mafia guys taking someone "for a ride" to the woods...LOL
868. LakeShadow 1:45 PM GMT on October 16, 2007
Bonedog..there are woods in Jersey?


Of coures where do you think they go to take a .......lol
*whispers* Quiet as it's kept, I SHOULD. My vision sure isn't what it USED TO BE!!

Ahhhhhhhh, the joys of aging :))
*guzzles more coffee* lol, IC!! (not me!!) ROFL *guzzle*
So the local B-lo forcasters call for thunderstorms on thurs. with 60% chance. Theres a warming happening on Friday, so I think the t.s.'s will be a part of the low thats out in front of the cold front, then theres a warm front associated with that and finally the cold front...we should get rain for the next week, it looks.
no wait theres no low in front...how can the temps go up then after the front passes????
Hi Storm, I live in LA, but will be traveling the length of the state from south to north on Thurs and Friday, will this weather be affecting us?
yea JP I am in the part thats very Mountainous. Not really PA but I am litterly a stones throw from NY State
Lake Ill show you...



see the warm front in between the Low off Mass and the GL Low? That is what will push through first then the backdoor cold front
Not one met in our area was forcasting a cold front coming through yesterday, they only forcasted 20% chance of rain....we had a deluge (finally, have had NO rain as of late) and when I left work the temp was 81, 25 miles north of that at my house, the temp was 58!! It was a pleasant suprise!!!
884. V26R
Bone you're taking a beating this morning
Im glad its you and not me
that was for thursday. here is friday

886. V26R
Actually the Local NWS is calling for a Warm front to stall just to our North, but they're not saying for how long
ok thanks Bonedog. makes more sense. looks rather messy.
V2 its all in good fun. not like I havent heard it all before
889. V26R
Same here
look at the low thats about to come onto shore by BC Canada...What do you make of that BD?
Yea very wierd system. Its because what will be bringing the actual weather is still in the Pac. The system will transfer energy to the GL Low before it moves through. Kinda like when we have a low ride up the Apps then transfer itself to the Atl and spin up to a Nor'Easter. The forcast goes haywire because timing and actaul energy transfer is hard to determine until it almost happens
something to watch, thas for sure.
Lake according to the long range models the Low that will push into the BC coast friday and saturday is expected to ride the wacko Jet stream up into the Hudson Bay region
895. V26R
Bone ECMWF is showing a Bermuda High trying to
set up shop and that GL Low moving to our NW
up into the Maritimes

Link
good, so it'll stay north.
Tampa, ICless LOL. Probably more appropriate. I hate to wear glasses.
892. LakeShadow 10:03 AM EDT on October 16, 2007
something to watch, thas for sure.


Yea I am waiting for StormW to finish his synopsis and get back to me. I asked him earlier why non of the local met offices here even bring mention of a possiblity of precip. We are under a threat box according to SPC yet the friday forcast just says a frontal passage with warming temps. So I am trying to look at the charts, maps, and models to figure it all out. Its kind of complex and just beyond my grasp. Haven't really grasped the mechanisms in Severe events. I know what causes them but dont quite yet understand the actual dynamics according to the charts to forcast it yet.
well, you let me know, because I'm trying to figure this stuff out, too. our local mets have been wrong so much...people start to ask me what the weather would be like and I would like to give a good answer. :)
900. V26R
NCEP showing it too
Also showing that the front looses it's moisture as it approaches us
Maybe thats why?
I seen that V2. The models have that persitant high over the SE as it has been all summer. That thing needs to go away. Making it miserable for the folks down there and also blocking the systems from driving our way. The resiviors are almost empty
I realy do think that what you said about timing and energy transfer is important...its not easy forcasting this stuff..so I'll give the mets a little benefit of doubt. Even so...Its just better to stay abreast of this info myself.
903. V26R
Would hate to see that thing moce further east
and then sitthere all winter, man that would open up the GOM moisture for us and dump a Ton of snow on us!
905. V26R
Thats all you can do Lake
Circulation looks to be a little more visible this morning.

Link
Im thinking...that's what they're talking about making it's way up here (panhandle) Thursday-ish?
908. V26R
Wow Baja if that shear would calm down a bit that would be cookin!
909. V26R
Either that Baja or some of the offshoot moisture from it
Not looking like it's going to, lol. You know ME *laffs*...Im just lookin for more RAIN. LOL
Thanks StormW. just seemed wierd that they would have the Box as far north as Maine and not an office mentioned it.
912. V26R
I just realized something...

It is really pleasant here without
certain aged indivuals on here!

See what happens when I get enough sleep?
914. V26R
Storm How accurate have you found those Day 4 Forecasts from the SPC?
I've seen them change drastically over time
Seems like they occassionally guess with the D4 thru D7's
It HAS been nice this morning...JP singing...Storm, bone, NE and yourself talking about YOUR weather...yup, pleasant
StormW you say "looking at the 500mb charts" what specifically are you looking at? I am trying to learn the dynamics behind severe events and any knowledge you can help with would be much appreciated. TIA
bone,
the local mets here in boston,only mentioned shwrs for late friday or eve,with a chance of thunder depending on how much sun we get.
915. BajaALemt 2:21 PM GMT on October 16, 2007
It HAS been nice this morning...JP singing...Storm, bone, NE and yourself talking about YOUR weather...yup, pleasant

enjoy it while it lasts,the afternoon seems to have a different breed come in here.
920. V26R
Just caught a local forecast on TV here Bone
CH5 is saying heavy Rain for us on Friday
921. V26R
It was downright nasty on here last night NEWX
Really Sad I just shut it off at work and actually went and did some work!
yea the morning seems to be the pleasant crowd. I always enjoy this time of day. Albeit it hasnt been too bad in here. Haven't added to the list in a day or so. I guess once the tropics quiet down some of the "people" drift away from this blog.
NEwxguy, I agree. LOL
V26,thats why I never get on here in the evening,it's crazy.
thanks V2. Havent heard anything yet. I am watching CNN though.
After the tropics quiet down the real weather people are left
hi all is that whole mess in the gulf heading east over the state of fla. will the high pressure push it down south to so fla too thanks
Its just like during the summer folks. It was almost a daily armagedon in here then school started and it calmed down. At night they log back in. Its a shame when a few folks can make a great place such as this into a dibolicle. At night I usually stray from this blog and catch some of the other folks blogs. Seems more civilized that way.
LOL, NE. I've been online since 1992. Nothing NEW here. I find, that if I imagine the baited posts as THAT.....bait...and imagine leaving it on the floor and watching it wiggle till it dies, that I not only stay in a 'good place' but get a little giggle knowing how much it irks the trolls NOT to be responded to *smiles*
Morning, folks...
926. NEwxguy 10:28 AM EDT on October 16, 2007
After the tropics quiet down the real weather people are left


Truer words have never been spoken LOL
Hey all -
Wahts Goin' this morning?
Any Chance 99l could become a TS?
morning Flood
AND...you guys are SO MUCH MORE interesting to listen to ANYWAY!!!!
BajaALemt. Your so right. Thats also why I have such an extensive list. At the first signs of bait I add them. At least I dont have to see the bickering that way.
morning,Flood
g'mornin Flood
939. V26R
Morning Flood
Good morning ,Flood.
There is still time to enter the NYC snowfall contest! Come to my blog and check it out.
Hey all -
Bahamas Blob seems to be seperating from the front...and convection is getting going...
Thoughts?
Thanks StormW for the info. I have that link in my favs. Just havent made it through the severe chapters yet. LOL

I appreciate the few moments you took to explain what to look for.
I wonder where the good Dr M's update is this AM?
946. V26R
Storm those are two great links gonna read them tonight instead of reading the Nite Stuff here
Thanx!
I hear ya Bone. Like I was saying yesterday. If I dont hit the ball back, the tennis game's over. I come here because I really like listening to you guys...and I learn alot listening to you (thanks, btw)
935. BajaALemt 2:31 PM GMT on October 16, 2007
AND...you guys are SO MUCH MORE interesting to listen to ANYWAY!!!!

AWW,Shucks!!!!
wind shear is 80kt in the gulf go out and in joy your day

Link
952. V26R
Baja you really hit the nail on the head especally last nights fiasco
TD15E in the east pacific is now TS Kiko.
Also, the 8:00 am update on 99L has wind speed up to 25kt.


Kiko

99L
G'mornin Mr Taz
your welcome Baja
Wow...it's truly dead in the ATL. This has been one strange season...kind of like 1931...few majors, and a lot of short-lived systems
G'morning all now i am off to work
Welp, that was LAST NITE...lol. Thanks goodness for a new day (clean slate)
Are my posts getting Through?

Did the Bahamas Blb Seperate from the front?
You got that right, JP...
Taz,
Hows your day in California any snow yet?
it IS!! lol
966. V26R
WOW what a mess Baja
StormW those are 2 great links.....but with that much reading, i just as well go back to school......lol
No Name the blob has detached yes but doest appear to be amounting to anything. Not much in the way of favorable conditions to it.
969. V26R
JP I was just looking at the Map Taz just posted and couldn't find 80k shear either, thought maybe I was reading it wrong
Max I could find over GOM was @20k
Taz must have been up drinking all nite in Califorina. I don't see any 80kt shear in the GOM.......lol
I saw 50's to the north *shrugs*
closest 80knt shear on the map is over the TN valley LOL
New Blog!
975. V26R
Okay so I was reading it correctly
Thats where I saw it Bone
972. Bonedog 2:49 PM GMT on October 16, 2007
closest 80knt shear on the map is over the TN valley LOL


Heck that would blow the outhouses over in Jersey....LMAO
They mentioned that in the area forecast this morning, JP..minimal risk here, tho
Doesn't EVERY good Yankee Redneck have an outhouse?
980. V26R
New Blog is up guys
Has anyone noted the very large area of spin at 16N78W? Is that upper level?
Oh yes, let it rain, let it rain......Whoever that was that put up Grace Kelley's photo yesterday offering a rain dance to the gods did the trick, we are getting some steady down pours here the panhandle........now if it could stick around for a day or two........
The Times-Union In Jacksonville,FL has an article on the front page of the Lifestyle section about buoys and how they track storms.They talk about how this year is a shake down test and they will retrieve this buoy in December for further data testing.The project cost $945,000. Of course hoping to improve intensty forecasting,etc.
Morning yall. Just a reminder that Patrap is suppose to have his surgery today. Might want to drop him a note on his blog. I believe his wife is passing on our good thoughts for a speedy recovery.
Old blog rules!