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Two Tropical Depressions in Atlantic; More Record Heat in U.S., Europe

By: Bob Henson 7:27 PM GMT on September 18, 2015

Tropical activity is at a low ebb globally compared to the breakneck pace of the last month. The only hurricane-strength tropical cyclone on the planet as of Friday was Typhoon Krovanh, which peaked at Category 3 strength over the last 24 hours. At 1500 GMT (11:00 am EDT) on Friday, Krovanh was located about 80 miles northeast of the island of Iwo To, gradually recurving to the north and packing top sustained winds of 100 mph. Iwo To and its neighboring islands have seen little impact from Krovanh, as the typhoon's convection and its strongest winds are focused on its east side. Kovanh should be below typhoon strength by Monday as it sweeps well to the east of Japan's main islands.

In the Atlantic, we have two tropical depressions, both far out at sea in the central North Atlantic, as well as a disturbance closer to the southeast U.S. coast. Tropical Depression 9 has missed its chance to become a named storm. Now undergoing southwesterly shear, TD 9 is largely devoid of convection, and statistical and dynamical forecast models generally weaken it over time as it drifts to the west-northwest. The National Hurricane Center is projecting TD 9 to become a remnant low by tonight. Further to the southeast, newborn Tropical Depression 10, also heading west-northwest, has a better chance of becoming a named storm. Models are consistent in bringing TD 10 to tropical storm strength by Sunday and keeping it there for several more days. The track forecast becomes more uncertain after Monday, but the overall tendency is toward a gradual recurvature well east of the Caribbean and North America.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of water vapor shows the extensive swath of convection associated with Invest 96L (left). Also evident are tiny Tropical Depression 9 (center) and much larger Tropical Depression 10 (right). Image credit: CIMMS/SSEC/University of Wisconsin.

About 100 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, Invest 96L is a region of surface low pressure associated with an vast, loosely organized area of showers and thunderstorms and a weak surface boundary that extends from south Florida into the Northwest Atlantic. A flood watch is in effect over eastern Florida on Friday, with heavy thunderstorms pounding the populated strip from Miami to Palm Beach. NHC gives Invest 96L a 20% chance of development into a tropical cyclone through Monday and a 40% chance through Wednesday, as the low continues to spin off the southeast U.S. Coast. WIth an upper-level trough predicted to dig over the eastern United States next week, 96L could take on at least some hybrid or subtropical characteristics if it were to intensify. As high pressure builds to the north of 96L, the next few days may bring an extended period of high surf along parts of the U.S. East Coast, especially in the Carolinas.



Figure 2. Surface temperatures on Friday, September 18, 2015, remained far above normal across central Europe, from Italy into western Russia. Image credit: climatereanalyzer.org, University of Maine.

Extreme mid-September heat in Europe
An exceptional summer of record-breaking heat waves across Europe is hanging on with remarkable vigor as the fall equinox approaches. On Thursday, September 17, dozens of locations in at least six countries set all-time high temperature records for any date in September, according to international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera. This is truly an amazing accomplishment for so late in a transition month like September when average temperatures are dropping throughout the month. Among the locations that set all-time September highs on Thursday were these four stations in southeast Germany, all of which broke monthly records that had just been set on September 1 of this year (thanks to Michael Theusner, Klimahaus, for these statistics).

Gottfrieding: 34.0°C (93.2°F), old record 32.3°C
Mühldorf: 33.3°C (91.9°F), old record 32.6°C
Straubing : 32.9°C (91.2°F), old record 31.4°C
Chieming: 31.1°C (88.0°F), old record 30.6°C

Still more records fell on Friday, as dozens more stations with long periods of record set all-time September highs, according to Herrera. Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina, hit 38.0°C (100.4°F), beating its previous September record of 37.7°C. Weather records in Sarajevo extend back to 1880. Several locations came within 2°F of their all-time highs for any time of year--again, a remarkable outcome for the final week of astronomical summer! Special thanks for these data go to Maximiliano Herrera, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

See the Jeff Masters post from Thursday for details on the many heat records set in Europe and elsewhere last month, which was the warmest August in global record-keeping that goes back to 1880.

Warmest September on record for U.S.? It's possible
Summer isn't quite ready to let go of the contiguous U.S., either, as warm weather has predominated in many areas through September. In a swath running from Colorado's Front Range to New England, a number of locations are on track for what could be their warmest September on record. These include:




Figure 3. The 8- to 14-day outlook from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center shows a high probability that most of the contiguous U.S. will have above-average temperatures during the last week of September. Image credit: NOAA/CPC

All of these places, and others around the nation, have a running start toward possibly setting their all-time monthly record for September. One big obstacle in their way is the climatological tendency for temperatures to drop as we move toward the end of the month. However, that tendency will be muted somewhat by persistent upper-level high pressure that's keeping any major pushes of Canadian or Arctic air at bay. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center is projecting high odds of above-normal temperatures across much of the nation for the 8- to 14-day period (see Figure 3). With these positive signals, I won't be surprised to see a number of U.S. cities end up with their warmest September on record. The wide geographic spread of the warmth also suggests that the contiguous U.S. as a whole may be in the midst of its warmest September in more than a century of record-keeping. The just-released autumn/winter outlook from weather.com projects more warmth for October and beyond, especially for the eastern U.S.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson

Hurricane Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr Henson! TD 10 is forming a nice spiral structure.
Thank you Dr. Henson.

It's really something how each year brings hotter temperatures to new records.
Thanks, Bob
Thanks for the blog post Bob!
T.C.F.W.
010L
Quoting 5. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

T.C.F.W.
010L



That's some moderate intensification right there. If it isn't a ts by 11, I'd be shocked.
Quoting 6. ElConando:



That's some moderate intensification right there. If it isn't a ts by 11, I'd be shocked.
may be named at 5
Quoting 1. Climate175:

Thanks Dr Henson! TD 10 is forming a nice spiral structure.
For now looks great and intensifying.No treath to any land.
this is what is going too happen at 5pm with TD 10

AL, 10, 2015091818, , BEST, 0, 132N, 370W, 30, 1007, TD


but the NHC can go higher but it may 100% stay at TD at 5
TD10 Blossoming nicely.....
I traditionally close out my mid atlantic sweetcorn season Nov 1 from seeds planted the last week in July. August 1 plantings are a perennial experiment that usually fails.

But August 1 planted corn this year is showing tassels and will probably mature in about five weeks. It may not make it to November and I'll have possible warm weather and no corn Nov 1.

Cool season fall plantings meanwhile are NOT happy!
Thanks, Bob. I'll bet you Denver does not break their monthly record. A late September snowstorms and cold air is almost a tradition there, along with the also inevitable Halloween blizzard.. :-)

High clouds from 97L are already flowing east in SE Alabama. The low must not be very far from Jacksonville. The pressure has fallen from 29.94 at 0930 to 29.82 now, so that's a tenth drop in 6.5 hours. Unfortunately, we are also getting NE winds from the low with subsiding air. Even though it's 92, the dewpoint is only 67. Feels good in the shade, but it also means I will be on the dry side of 96L no matter how it develops. Nothing but sunny skies over here.
Dr. Henson is not a doctor. He should be!!
struck for accidental repeat
Quoting 7. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

may be named at 5
Ida is the last one for this season.Right now there's nothing else important exiting Africa .
Some thunderstorms flaring up on TD9
Quoting 10. tiggerhurricanes2001:

TD10 Blossoming nicely.....


Looks like a TS to me
Quoting 17. FunnelVortex:



Looks like a TS to me
Agree and intensifying quickly.
If you look at the picture of the Atlantic in the above blog it looks like TD 10 is growing very large. Almost looks like its going to absorb TD 09.
Quoting 18. hurricanefishfla:

Agree and intensifying quickly.

I agree on that....
Pre-Ida looks very nice.NHC thinks their is a possibility we see a hurricane from this.
"As high pressure builds to the north of 96L, the next few days may bring an extended period of high surf along parts of the U.S. East Coast, especially in the Carolinas"

OH Glory Day!!!!!
Quoting 19. nocaneindy:

If you look at the picture of the Atlantic in the above blog it looks like TD 10 is growing very large. Almost looks like its going to absorb TD 09.
Something like the Fujiwara effect?
Quoting 21. washingtonian115:

Pre-Ida looks very nice.NHC thinks their is a possibility we see a hurricane from this.


I think this has the potential to become a hurricane, but it needs to develop a nicely stacked upper level anticyclone to fight off the impending shear before that can happen.
Quoting 21. washingtonian115:

Pre-Ida looks very nice.NHC thinks their is a possibility we see a hurricane from this.
Agree,but for a short time period.Shear will take care again.

Bob Henson, wunderground


A native of Oklahoma City, Bob earned his bachelor's degree in meteorology from Rice University in 1983 and went on to get a master's degree in journalism from the University of Oklahoma in 1988, where he studied lightning at the National Severe Storms Laboratory and engaged in a fair bit of storm chasing on the side. He has written five books on weather and climate change, including one of the most widely used textbooks for 101-level college meteorology courses, Meteorology Today (11th edition/Cengage, 2016), with lead author C. Donald Ahrens. Bob also wrote The Thinking Person's Guide to Climate Change (AMS Books, 2014), and is a contributing editor of Weatherwise magazine. He has written more than 50 articles for Nature, Scientific American, Discover, Sierra, The Guardian, AIR & SPACE/Smithsonian, and other media outlets. Bob began blogging for The Weather Underground in 2015.

From 1990 through 2014, Bob had the privilege of serving as a writer and editor at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, which operates the National Center for Atmospheric Research and publishes AtmosNews. This job gave him a front-row seat at a jaw-dropping array of research pertaining to the atmosphere--from the Sun's core to the ocean floor, as they liked to put it.

Bob lives near Boulder, Colorado, where he and his partner are avid hikers and cyclists. Bob also enjoys classic cinema, travel, landscape and sky photography, and Italian/Asian cooking.

You can email Bob at bob.henson@weather.com. His Twitter handle is @bhensonweather.
Quoting 24. FunnelVortex:



I think this has the potential to become a hurricane, but it needs to develop a nicely stacked upper level anticyclone to fight off the impending shear before that can happen.
Shear is our problem this year.
Quoting 25. hurricanefishfla:

Agree,but for a short time period.Shear will take care again.


If it develops a good upper level anticyclone shear shouldnt be a problem.
Quoting 24. FunnelVortex:



I think this has the potential to become a hurricane, but it needs to develop a nicely stacked upper level anticyclone to fight off the impending shear before that can happen.
Potential is there for sure.
Thanks Bob,

Yeah, it definitely has been a warm September. Don't recall ever using A/C in September before. A cooling trend is on its way for the northeast.
TD 10 has some nice symmetry!
Quoting 28. FunnelVortex:



If it develops a good upper level anticyclone shear shouldnt be a problem.
Is that happen,a shift to the west is possible?
Quoting 16. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Some thunderstorms flaring up on TD9


Looks like it is still getting sheared though.
Quoting 32. hurricanefishfla:

Is that happen,a shift to the west is possible?


I don't see anything hitting land from this
Quoting 33. NNYer:



Looks like it is still getting sheared though.
As we see around TD9,future Ida is approaching a too strong shear area.
Quoting 36. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Too much to the north for Ida.
Tropical Depression NINE RSS Feed icon Satellite | Buoys | NDFD | Storm Archive
...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SATURDAY...

5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 18

Location: 18.0°N 47.3°W
Moving: WNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph
I see a eye starting to develop.Unlike some of the other storms it is definitely not wasting time taking advantage of its current environment.
Quoting 22. Brock31:

"As high pressure builds to the north of 96L, the next few days may bring an extended period of high surf along parts of the U.S. East Coast, especially in the Carolinas"

OH Glory Day!!!!!


Seems like the Carolinas get picked on a lot dont they, hurricane and nor'easter seasons
Thanks for the Updates Mr. Henson,
Quoting 39. washingtonian115:

I see a eye starting to develop.Unlike some of the other storms it is definitely not wasting time taking advantage of its current environment.
Where?
Euro is persistent in bring a low north from the BOC at month's end.
Quoting 42. Gearsts:

Where?

Getting very cloudy and dark in Port St. Lucie, FL and can hear thunder rumble to the South. Looks like we are going to get another round of showers (last one I hope) soon. Now hearing my lawn service mowing my very soogy yard....ruts, etc. Sigh
Quoting 39. washingtonian115:

I see a eye starting to develop.Unlike some of the other storms it is definitely not wasting time taking advantage of its current environment.


It may actually form a strong upper level anticyclone to fight off the future shear.

This thing is a TS.
Quoting 44. washingtonian115:



Looks like that.If that happen,this thing is really fast.
TD 10 Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery thru 1945 UTC

click image for loop



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 SEP 2015 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 13:21:15 N Lon : 37:13:13 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1011.0mb/ 31.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.5 3.5

Center Temp : -24.5C Cloud Region Temp : -45.0C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : MSG3
Satellite Viewing Angle : 45.3 degrees

************************************************* ***



Was waiting on the NHC update on TD 10 before bugging out.................Here are the highlights: not a threat to land (but fun to watch)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
500 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015

The cloud pattern of the depression has continued to improve, with
well-defined convective banding wrapping around the center. 1800
UTC Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support tropical storm
intensity, but since ASCAT data from earlier this morning only
showed 20 kt of wind in the inner core, the initial intensity is
only being raised to 30 kt for now. Barring any unexpected
changes, the depression will likely be a tropical storm by this
evening. The environment appears generally conducive for gradual
strengthening during the next few days, but the global models
show that the cyclone will be located precariously beneath a narrow
upper-level ridge, especially on days 3 through 5. Even a slight
deviation from this pattern could put the cyclone in a higher-shear
environment and thus limit intensification, or even induce
weakening. The NHC intensity forecast continues to show gradual
strengthening through the forecast period and is close to a
consensus of the SHIPS and LGEM models.

[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]
Quoting 48. Patrap:

TD 10 Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery thru 1945 UTC

click image for loop



So rapid intensification is off,huh
Everyone have a safe weather weekend and enjoy your college and NFL football this weekend.........Looks like nice Fall type weather for most of Conus but Cali is still suffering between the fires and drought issues:



Tropical Depression TEN RSS Feed icon Satellite | Buoys | NDFD | Storm Archive

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENING AND LIKELY TO BE A TROPICAL STORM SOON...

5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 18
Location: 13.4°N 37.3°W
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

80°F
Feels Like: 83°
Wind Chill: 80° Ceiling: Unl
Heat Index: 83° Visibility: 10.00mi
Dew Point: 68° Wind Speed: 9mph
Humidity: 67% Direction: 70° (ENE)
Pressure: 29.92" Wind Gusts: 21mph
Report Text: KILM 182053Z AUTO 07008G18KT 10SM CLR 27/20 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP131 60000 T02670200 58010


Here in Wilmington the wind has become a bit gusty and its quite overcast at my location
Quoting 55. K8eCane:


80°F
Feels Like: 83°
Wind Chill: 80° Ceiling: Unl
Heat Index: 83° Visibility: 10.00mi
Dew Point: 68° Wind Speed: 9mph
Humidity: 67% Direction: 70° (ENE)
Pressure: 29.92" Wind Gusts: 21mph
Report Text: KILM 182053Z AUTO 07008G18KT 10SM CLR 27/20 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP131 60000 T02670200 58010


Here in Wilmington the wind has become a bit gusty and its quite overcast at my location





Link
Thanks weathermanwannabe you have a great weekend as well.
I was looking at this earlier. Hurricane Andrew from GOES-7.

Quoting 56. will45:





Link


Arent you near here?
And thanks for that link. I like it!
Quoting 58. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I was looking at this earlier. Hurricane Andrew from GOES-7.




Hey a quick question my friend, is that a link to see old satellite imagery? If it is can you post the link I will appreciate it. Thanks :)
Thanks for the update Mr Henson!

Looking at the ONI Chart of El Nino's and La Nina's, it looks like the 1997 El Nino peaked in the Oct 1997-January 1998 timeframe at +2.3C. As it stands now the 2015 version is at +1.2C while 1997 was +1.4C at the same time,with modeling forecasts indicating it peaking at about the same timeframe. Is there a way by looking at current water temps to see how much it go higher for the JAS time frame at the end of this month. Any more Kelvin waves heading east to re-enforce the numbers? Looks like it will take some doing to match 1997 which went to +1.7C at the end of September. Would a .5C be attainable? Lot's of questions still on this version of the "Christ Child".

1997 JJA +1.4C JAS +1.7C ASO +2.0C SON +2.2C OND +2.3C NDJ +2.3C
2015 JJA +1.2C JAS ???? ASO ???? SON ???? OND ???? NDJ ????














This blog seems to be clinging to life support. I gotta find a vibrant one. L8er G8ers
Its never about the blog comments, it's about the entry topic.

Millions read the entry and without ever enabling the comments.

Quoting 60. 882MB:



Hey a quick question my friend, is that a link to see old satellite imagery? If it is can you post the link I will appreciate it. Thanks :)
Unfortunately, I can't share the link with you since it is top secret classified under U.S. Federal Laws, and since I work for the government I would get in serious trouble. They told me I could post the image, but not the link. Sorry 882MB.
Quoting 23. hurricanefishfla:

Something like the Fujiwara effect?
The Fujiwhara effect only occurs when two reasonably developed cyclones get within about 800 miles of each other. Both storms start to rotate around each other, with the effect increasing as they get closer. If they continue to close the distance, the two lows will eventually either merge or one will be sheared apart by the other.

This is clearly not the case with TD 9 and 10. TD9 is barely a TD now, and will become a remnant low within 48 hours. TD 10 should be TS Ida in 96 hours and near hurricane strength by the time it gets to where what's left of TD9 is located. Ida will just run over it like a truck, and there will be very little change in the storm. Fujiwhara effect storms are quite rare. 2005 was the last time we saw an example in the Atlantic. Given the results of the season to date, a Fujiwhara effect event is extremely unlikely.
Exxon thought about benefitting mankind but decided to make money instead

It may be hard to read but this memo, written in 1978 by Harold N. Weinberg, an Exxon manager. But what it reveals is that 37 years ago, Exxon understood that their product might be a threat to humanity. Weinberg offered some “grandiose thoughts on what we, Exxon might undertake to do in connection with the ‘CO2 problem.’”

Weinberg proposed that the oil giant “be the initiator of a worldwide ‘CO2 in the Atmosphere’ R&D program along the lines of the International Geophysical Year concept.”

He wrote, “This may be the kind of opportunity we are looking for to have Exxon technology, management and leadership resources put into the context of a project aimed at benefitting mankind.”


He went on to say, “What would be more appropriate than for the world’s leading energy company and leading oil company [to] take the lead in trying to define whether a long-term CO2 problem really exists, and if so, what counter measures would be appropriate.”
Quoting 59. K8eCane:



Arent you near here?
And thanks for that link. I like it!



yes pretty close im on Emerald Isle
Thanks for getting me out of class twelve years ago today, Izzie.



And now 96L's rain has made an appearance at my location.
Quoting 64. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Unfortunately, I can't share the link with you since it is top secret classified under U.S. Federal Laws, and since I work for the government I would get in serious trouble. They told me I could post the image, but not the link. Sorry 882MB.
LOL. Or, you could go to the non-top secret GIBBS site and look to your heart's content. :-)
The link for the Andrew image can be found here,

All one has to do to get the HTML is quote the comment with the image, and it will appear in the comment box automatically.

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gibbs
Quoting 69. sar2401:

LOL. Or, you could go to the non-top secret GIBBS site and look to your heart's content. :-)
Glad someone got the sarcasm. :-) How's your day going so far Sar?
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
500 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015

The cloud pattern of the depression has continued to improve, with
well-defined convective banding wrapping around the center. 1800
UTC Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support tropical storm
intensity, but since ASCAT data from earlier this morning only
showed 20 kt of wind in the inner core, the initial intensity is
only being raised to 30 kt for now. Barring any unexpected
changes, the depression will likely be a tropical storm by this
evening. The environment appears generally conducive for gradual
strengthening during the next few days, but the global models
show that the cyclone will be located precariously beneath a narrow
upper-level ridge, especially on days 3 through 5. Even a slight
deviation from this pattern could put the cyclone in a higher-shear
environment and thus limit intensification, or even induce
weakening. The NHC intensity forecast continues to show gradual
strengthening through the forecast period and is close to a
consensus of the SHIPS and LGEM models.

The initial motion is 285/7 kt, with the depression being steered
by a mid-level anticyclone to its northwest. This anticyclone is
expected to move westward at the same pace as the depression during
the next few days, maintaining a west-northwestward motion through
48 hours. After that time, the steering currents are forecast to
collapse near the cyclone when a deep-layer trough amplifies over
the eastern Atlantic. As a result, the models show very slow
motion occurring by days 4 and 5, and the updated NHC track
forecast shows the cyclone becoming stationary at the end of the
forecast period. This forecast is largely unchanged from the
previous one and is near the middle of the tightly clustered
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 13.4N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 13.9N 38.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 14.9N 40.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 16.1N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 17.2N 44.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 19.5N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 20.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 20.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
I get the sarcasm, someone just asked a simple question,

As a Human, I answered.


I worked for the Gub'ment for 8 years, and have the dd-214 to show it.

: P


You can really see the effect of the dissipating low n the Gulf and developing low in the Atlantic. the remaining rain in south Florida is headed east offshore while some showers north of about Orlando are headed west from 96L At least none of the rain appears to be of the gutter bending variety.

Clearly we have Ida.

UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 18 SEP 2015 Time : 214500 UTC Lat : 13:26:37 N Lon : 37:22:55 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 2.4 /1010.4mb/ 34.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 2.4 2.7 3.1 Center Temp : -18.6C Cloud Region Temp : -41.3C Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO* Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour Weakening Flag : OFF Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : N/A - Environmental MSLP : 1013mb Satellite Name : MSG3 Satellite Viewing Angle : 45.5 degrees ************************************************** **
A must read!

Investigation Finds Exxon Ignored Its Own Early Climate Change Warnings



Despite its efforts for nearly two decades to raise doubts about the science of climate change, newly discovered company documents show that as early as 1977, Exxon research scientists warned company executives that carbon dioxide was increasing in the atmosphere and that the burning of fossil fuels was to blame.

The internal records are detailed in a new investigation published Wednesday by InsideClimate News, a Pulitzer Prize-winning news organization covering energy and the environment.

The investigation found that long before global warming emerged as an issue on the national agenda, Exxon formed an internal brain trust that spent more than a decade trying to understand the impact of rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere — even launching a supertanker with custom-made instruments to sample and understand whether the oceans could absorb the rising atmospheric CO2 levels. Today, Exxon says the study had nothing to do with CO2 emissions, but an Exxon researcher involved in the project remembered it differently in the below video, which was produced by FRONTLINE in association with the InsideClimate News report.

In 1978, the Exxon researchers warned that a doubling of CO2 levels in the atmosphere would increase average global temperatures by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius and would have a major impact on the company’s core business. “Present thinking holds that man has a time window of five to ten years before the need for hard decisions regarding changes in energy strategies might become critical,” one scientist wrote in an internal document.

The warnings would later grow more urgent. In a 1982 document marked “not to be distributed externally,” the company’s environmental affairs office wrote that preventing global warming would require sharp cuts in fossil fuel use. Failure to do so, the document said, could result in “some potentially catastrophic events” that “might not be reversible.”

Some on the Exxon internal research team saw the potential for a greater impact in their work. “This may be the kind of opportunity that we are looking for to have Exxon technology, management and leadership resources put into the context of a project aimed at benefitting mankind,” Harold N. Weinberg, an Exxon manager, wrote in a March 1978 internal memo.

But in the mid-1980s, collapsing oil prices, among other pressures, pushed Exxon to change course, according to the Inside Climate News investigation, widening a gulf between its research arm and the company’s executive suite. The report notes that by the 1990s:

Exxon helped to found and lead the Global Climate Coalition, an alliance of some of the world’s largest companies seeking to halt government efforts to curb fossil fuel emissions. Exxon used the American Petroleum Institute, right-wing think tanks, campaign contributions and its own lobbying to push a narrative that climate science was too uncertain to necessitate cuts in fossil fuel emissions.

“Let’s agree there’s a lot we really don’t know about how climate change will change in the 21st century and beyond,” Lee Raymond, the company’s former chairman and chief executive officer told an audience in a 1997 speech to the World Petroleum Conference.

In a written response to the InsideClimate News investigation, an Exxon spokesman said that, “At all times, the opinions and conclusions of our scientists and researchers on this topic have been solidly within the mainstream of the consensus scientific opinion of the day and our work has been guided by an overarching principle to follow where the science leads. The risk of climate change is real and warrants action.”

While it’s impossible to know where the climate change debate would be today without Exxon’s early decision to shift course on the science, the about-face was a lost opportunity in the overall effort to slow the rise of CO2 emissions, according to one climate researcher interviewed by InsideClimate News.

“All it would have taken is for one prominent fossil fuel CEO to know this was about more than just shareholder profits, and a question about our legacy,” said Michael Mann, the director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University. “But now because of the cost of inaction — what I call the ‘procrastination penalty’ — we face a far more uphill battle.”

Quoting 72. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Glad someone got the sarcasm. :-) How's your day going so far Sar?
Yeah, I got it. I wonder how many were falling for it though? I've had a honey-do day, replacing a light fixture, pumping up the air in her car's tires, building a shelf in the kitchen, and splicing an extension cord she sawed through while she was trimming some bushes. The weather today has been different, with a high of 94 but low humidity. It felt like California, hot in the sun but cool in the shade. Also had a nice NW breeze courtesy of 96L.
Quoting 60. 882MB:



Hey a quick question my friend, is that a link to see old satellite imagery? If it is can you post the link I will appreciate it. Thanks :)
Here is the link images goes back to 1974. Here is another link to my school's website where my professors have stitched and enhanced some of the satellite images and animations. There is also model outputs, radar, and lots of flight weather information.
81. RayT
if TD 9 and 10 both develop, are they close enough for the fujiwhara effect to alter their paths?
Quoting 75. sar2401:

You can really see the effect of the dissipating low n the Gulf and developing low in the Atlantic. the remaining rain in south Florida is headed east offshore while some showers north of about Orlando are headed west from 96L At least none of the rain appears to be of the gutter bending variety.




You can see a now dry low level spin on Key West radar...



Edit: 7:45 EDT... Well, not so much anymore.
83. vis0
For interesting satellite images of the LOW(s) off the FL coast try my Zilly pg3 cmmnt#123
Quoting 15. hurricanefishfla:

Ida is the last one for this season.Right now there's nothing else important exiting Africa .


Seriously? It's only the middle of September. We've got a lot of time left to see new systems develop and plenty of bath water to feed them. Also, they don't all originate in Africa.
Now we enter the time of the year where any low forming in BOC or Western Carib can find a way to become a tropical terror.
Quoting 84. SherwoodSpirit:



Seriously? It's only the middle of September. We've got a lot of time left to see new systems develop and plenty of bath water to feed them. Also, they don't all originate in Africa.

Right that's the dumbest comment I've seen on here yet Ida will not be the last storm yes we might not see anymore Cape Verde storms but there will be more to spin up closer to land
Quoting 62. K8eCane:

This blog seems to be clinging to life support. I gotta find a vibrant one. L8er G8ers


That's because Florida didn't have the quickly developing tropical storm hitting the west coast or catastrophic rain event that was warned on here. Lots of beneficial rains with a few areas of minor flooding. Nothing that Florida can't handle.
Quoting 78. sar2401:

Yeah, I got it. I wonder how many were falling for it though? I've had a honey-do day, replacing a light fixture, pumping up the air in her car's tires, building a shelf in the kitchen, and splicing an extension cord she sawed through while she was trimming some bushes. The weather today has been different, with a high of 94 but low humidity. It felt like California, hot in the sun but cool in the shade. Also had a nice NW breeze courtesy of 96L.
Oh yes that's what real men do replace what's broken in the house and build stuff. Yep, it's that time of the year where Fall fronts start coming down. Still hot and humid in Sunny FL. glad to see areas that actually needed the rain in South FL. got it and areas that didn't need it didn't get much. I did see on the Local 6 news in Orlando some videos of flooding in Broward County. Anyways, looks like my attempt at sarcasm failed, but I will get'em next time.
Sounds like gunshots going off in Miami Beach. Crazy lightning and rain right now! 
Interesting discussion from our NWS, Wilmington, NC regarding the Ridge that will block the SE low and move it back down the SE coast..

18z Navgem went agressive with it..



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...YET ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.

SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EAST BY TUESDAY...WITH THAT TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC BLOCKS ITS
PROGRESSION. THIS UPPER LOW WILL THEN BE FORCED TO RETROGRADE SW
BACK INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AS THE RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC
EXPANDS...IN A PATTERN EERILY REMINISCENT OF THAT WHICH FORMED NEAR
THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIKA DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. AS THE
UPPER LOW RETROGRADES...IT PULLS A SURFACE TROUGH...LEFTOVER FROM
THE NHC OUTLINED AREA PRESENTLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AS WELL AS
A SURGE OF PWAT INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE WED-FRI. THESE SITUATIONS
RARELY CREATE ALL-DAY RAINFALL...BUT AT LEAST PERIODS OF SHOWERS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WED/THU/FRI AS DEEP MOIST FLOW
ANGLES ONSHORE. WILL RAMP INHERITED POP UPWARD TO MID-CHC FOR
WED/THU TO ACCOUNT FOR GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT MAKE VERY LITTLE
CHANGES TO TEMPS WHICH WILL FEATURE LOW DIURNAL RANGES WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS A BIT ABOVE.
Quoting 87. Bucsboltsfan:



That's because Florida didn't have the quickly developing tropical storm hitting the west coast or catastrophic rain event that was warned on here. Lots of beneficial rains with a few areas of minor flooding. Nothing that Florida can't handle.


And the possible development off our coast is likely just going to be a bad day or two at the beach. Interesting that both the gfs and ecmwf want to break off some of it and bring it back our way, but nothing more.
Quoting 74. Patrap:

I get the sarcasm, someone just asked a simple question,

As as a Human, I answered.


I worked for the Gub'ment for 8 years, and have the dd-214 to show it.

: P



Howdy Pat..We did some towing for them too...and it was really interesting
Since we have 2 posts about Exxon and evil profits the news on the epa environmental disaster has gotten no coverage last I heard the Navajo nation ran McCain off their land yesterday said the government had done nothing to help them.Has the Obama administration cleaned up any of the disaster area or not?Complete news black out on this historic disaster.Exxon oil pollution I guess this is on topic and no ban this time.
TXNT21 KNES 181823
TCSNTL

A. 10L (NONAME)

B. 18/1745Z

C. 13.1N

D. 37.1W

E. THREE/MET-10

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 3.0 BASED ON .6 BANDING. MET IS 2.5 BASED ON
RAPID DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 3.0. FT IS BASED
ON CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LIDDICK

maybe a tropical storm soon


Did you guys know that 89-Years ago today Miami and Miami Beach were hit head on by a strong cat-4 Hurricane which is now known as The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. It had sustained winds of at least 140-MPH and a low pressure reading of 27.61 inches. All of Miami Beach went under 3 to 5 feet of water. Over 375-people were killed.


tropical storm at 11pm tonight!!


Photo taken on the morning of September 18, 1926 of south Miami Beach under several feet of water during the second half of the Great Miami Hurricane.
A little side note on San Diego rainfall totals for the year. The rain year here for 2015 begins 7-1-2015 and ends 6-30-2016. Don't know why they do this.

San Diego rainfall averages about 10" per year. They change this average every 10 years.

Since the 2015 El Nino has started getting cranked up since this past April or so, San Diego has had record amounts of rainfall for late spring and summer and more or less much of Soo Cal has had enhanced rainfall totals. This is a good thing should heavier rains materialize this winter.

As this image attests, most all areas got a good soaking from the last storm/system on the 15th of this month.







Most of the rains have come from the south and have a tropical nature. Former Hurricane Dolores had taken a northerly track running paralell with the Baja California coastline and it's former surface circulation was pulled into Soo Cal by a well placed trof off the Pacific Northwest Coast, and rainfall totals od 1-3 inches with San Diego setting a record with 1.04" for the day July 18,2015. San Diego added .66 the next day for a total of 1.70" more than the previous 101 Julys before it.

Another such scenario played out this week on September 15, 2015 when the remnants(surface circulation) of Hurricane Linda which had taken a similar track north and another trof pulled it into Soo Cal and the Southwest US. San Diego had another record rainfall day with 1.24" and rain totals in Soo Cal had many 1-2 inch totals for that storm and a high on Yucaipa Peak, elevation 9,133 in San Bernadino County 80 miles east of Los Angeles, had great orographic lifting and totaled over 6 inches of the wet stuff! See images below. Dolores is #4 track and then Linda.








May 2015 had already been pretty wet as winter/spring held on and we got 3-4 ULL/Trofs to dig down the west coast into Soo Cal and ended up with 2.39 inches for the month. Then El Nino took over! Seems a lot of the time during El Nino years, the High Pressure over the Midwest weakens a tad and erodes it's western edge letting the tropical systems to the south go on northwest or a northerly track. We have seen this before with multiple Tropical systems going into the SW US, usually as weakening tropical storms or depressions.

I looked at a few sets of numbers on the rain and found that normal rainfall from May 1 to Sept 18 in normal years in San Diego would be 0.38 inches. This year we have had 5.36 inches in that same timeframe! To add that on the extended forecast for winter, California is at the max deviation on forecast for extra rainfall.



Maybe 1-2 more of these remnant tropical systems before winter and then hope El-Nino does his thing.





The day after the Miami Hurricane of September 18, 1926. "Could someone please bring me a towel".
Quoting 88. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Oh yes that's what real men do replace what's broken in the house and build stuff. Yep, it's that time of the year where Fall fronts start coming down. Still hot and humid in Sunny FL. glad to see areas that actually needed the rain in South FL. got it and areas that didn't need it didn't get much. I did see on the Local 6 news in Orlando some videos of flooding in Broward County. Anyways, looks like my attempt at sarcasm failed, but I will get'em next time.


Ohhhh....that was a niiice segue from work to WX LOL !!
Late night hello from Germany and thanks to Bob for the new entry and mentioning our hot Southeastern European weather (with a lot of poor refugees sweltering), although it's chilly at my place and our new heating isn't working yet, brrrr.
Berlin's meteorological institute is advertising the naming of European highs and lows for the next year - if you got some bucks extra to support weather projects and maybe get a nice birthday present for your SWMBO or hubby :-)

Adopt a Vortex!
The allocation of highs and lows for 2016 started at September 16th 2015, 00.00 GMT 2.
The current lists for 2016 are released now! Have a look: Highs and Lows
You can find the current lists here: Highs and Lows
There are still attractive letters for Highs and Lows available!
Please send us the application form (Lows and Highs) via fax, post or e-mail. ...
With Adopt-a-Vortex everybody is able to participate in the naming process. This is not only for entertainment purposes, but it has a very serious reason! Every adoption means to enable the continuation of climate observation and the comprehensive weather observation by students, which is carried out at the Institute of Meteorology of the Free University of Berlin, Euro by Euro. ...

More see link above.
Quoting 95. HurriHistory:



Did you guys know that 89-Years ago today Miami and Miami Beach were hit head on by a strong cat-4 Hurricane which is now known as The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. It had sustained winds of at least 140-MPH and a low pressure reading of 27.60 inches. All of Miami Beach went under 3 to 5 feet of water. Over 375-people were killed.

To be in one of those houses that was torn and shredded and then be spit out into a roaring sea with sustained winds of 140mph would be terror at it's height. Waves crashing the size of trees and just the roar would be deafening.
Quoting 90. ncstorm:

Interesting discussion from our NWS, Wilmington, NC regarding the Ridge that will block the SE low and move it back down the SE coast..



Ya hear that Camerooski?? It's comin' right for ya !!
106. 882MB
Thanks to the link that was posted for old satellite imagery, I was able to find a very interesting day for me. The groundhog day severe weather outbreak in south Florida, during the epic El Nino of 97/98. I still remember that squall line that moved through the Miami area, sounded like a hurricane was passing by, and the lightning was non-stop. It was 1 of the strongest squall lines I have ever been in. Then 3 weeks later we had the February 22/23 severe weather outbreak in central Florida, with many tornadoes reported. I wonder how this Winter season will be for Florida, due to this strong El Nino.

February 2, 1998 Groundhog day Severe Weather outbreak-



February 23,1998 Central Florida Tornadoes-



HH might fly out to 96L if necessary, 18z GFS still wants something to come back at us albeit weak.
Quoting 95. HurriHistory:



Did you guys know that 89-Years ago today Miami and Miami Beach were hit head on by a strong cat-4 Hurricane which is now known as The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. It had sustained winds of at least 140-MPH and a low pressure reading of 27.60 inches. All of Miami Beach went under 3 to 5 feet of water. Over 375-people were killed.

The trees show it was at least that. Check out those houses ..survivors. One in the middle looks like any you'd see now. Pretty modern for 1926
Quoting 104. DeepSeaRising:



The average wind speed for 24 hours was recorded at just over 76 mph at Miami..The Great Miami Hurricane also impacted Pensacola, FL with hurricane conditions for 20 hours before making its final landfall near Mobile, AL later that day. Almost every boat, wharf, pier or warehouse situated on Pensacola Bay was destroyed.
110. 882MB
Quoting 95. HurriHistory:



Did you guys know that 89-Years ago today Miami and Miami Beach were hit head on by a strong cat-4 Hurricane which is now known as The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. It had sustained winds of at least 140-MPH and a low pressure reading of 27.60 inches. All of Miami Beach went under 3 to 5 feet of water. Over 375-people were killed.


Most of those people that perished, died because they went outside when the eye was passing by. Everyone thought it was over, but then the other side of the eyewall came in, and caught all those people by surprise and off guard. I read it in an article, I think it was in Wikipedia.
Quoting 110. 882MB:



Most of those people that perished, died because they went outside when the eye was passing by. Everyone thought it was over, but then the other side of the eyewall came in, and caught all those people by surprise and off guard. I read it in an article, I think it was in Wikipedia.

I was out in the eye in Wilma...there was no way to ignore the 2nd half was fast approaching. Shoulda heard the noise. I'm not sure how they missed it or were not on guard. Surely happens though.
Quoting 107. win1gamegiantsplease:

HH might fly out to 96L if necessary, 18z GFS still wants something to come back at us albeit weak.


SE coast low actually looks like its moving ene now. As i commented this morning, i think whatever forms if anything, will remain a good distance off shore and not bother us except for maybe stray showers and breezy conditions with rip currents.

i dont know, but anything coming back at us probly wont be a surface low

Quoting 111. Starhopper:


I was out in the eye in Wilma...there was no way to ignore the 2nd half was fast approaching. Shoulda heard the noise. I'm not sure how they missed it or were not on guard. Surely happens though.



The other side of an eyewall comes on in a snap, or at least ive seen a couple do it
Quoting 113. K8eCane:




The other side of an eyewall comes on in a snap, or at least ive seen a couple do it

It sounded like 100 freight trains and a pack of ghost dogs howling on a PA system in Wilma.
Very eerie. I was where i could run in very fast. I was worried about the cops n fireman who were out cutting trees in the eye to clear the road. There were at least a mile from their base...and they didnt leave till last second.
Quoting 114. Starhopper:


It sounded like 100 freight trains and a pack of ghost dogs howling on a PA system in Wilma.
Very eerie.


by the time you hear that you better hope you arent far from the house if you have ventured outside
I know it hasn't happened yet, but:

Am I imagining things or does this (projected) storm look like it's bound for Houston, Texas, where I am?

TXNT21 KNES 190010
TCSNTL

A. 10L (NONAME)

B. 18/2345Z

C. 13.4N

D. 36.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=2.0 BASED ON .3 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL. PT=2.0. MET=2.0.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL
No Ida yet. Maybe by the morning.
AL, 10, 2015091900, 01, CARQ, 0, 136N, 373W, 30, 1007, TD, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 160, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 305, 5, TEN, M,
Quoting 111. Starhopper:


I was out in the eye in Wilma...there was no way to ignore the 2nd half was fast approaching. Shoulda heard the noise. I'm not sure how they missed it or were not on guard. Surely happens though.


Agreed. I think those people should have known better.

But was there an overcast in the eye that obscured the view of the towering clouds of the eyewall or something?
A storm impacting Miami like that today would cause well over 200 billion in damages.History does repeat its self and it is bound to happen again.
Quoting 120. washingtonian115:

A storm impacting Miami like that today would cause well over 200 billion in damages.History does repeat its self and is is bound to happen again.


Yeah, but still. People should know better, especially in the face of a strong Cat 4-5.

Often, it seems stupidity, ignorance, and foolishness leads to the deaths of people who have no clue what they are doing.
Quoting 116. pureet1948:

I know it hasn't happened yet, but:

Am I imagining things or does this (projected) storm look like it's bound for Houston, Texas, where I am?



It's bound for someplace, and it's not houston texas. It's bound to be lost the next run when it goes back to showing nothing.


maybe a tropical storm tonight
124. vis0
Here an (regurgitated) idea.
**crickets**
OK for the 3 that stayed...wake up, Taz!...
Okay 2 that stayed
FIRST 5 imgs on Dr Masters, rest will be as links ONLYso open link to copy n paste it after it loads on the pop up.
image host image host image host image host image host image host
..so i can't count, duh.

IDEA:: Why not post the latest img via my filters (NOT COPIES off the net) of the happenings off the SE every 20-30 mins. (when i can connect, sis visited now going home, so have to disconnect to make sure she can call - "got home safely...& bought 3 pairs of shows on special fer 100 bucks ...each..huh?"...its NYc.
Therefore ~0900pm-1030pm EDT || 0100-0230UTC no uploads) Now you / each member can copy n paste and make your own slideshow. This way i don't upload an 30MB aniGif 10 hrs after the storm is being reported to have past by barbamz...a 2nd time.

i'll see how HiDef i can keep the images squeezing them from ~5MB into JPGs and try to cut the on the same Lat Long & dimension so one can just pop them in freeware like "NOMACS image lounge", "Visere" or "GonVisor" (ALWAYS CHECK FOR MALWARE WHEN DOWNLOADING apps)

Search for "funktopGal" when looking for the image / img links posted. OR

i'll keep the posted images in a thumbnail as not to take up blogspace, THEN after the first 5 all links leading to ORIGINAL size of 1274x1036 usually 300-400Kb.

If you want copy the "imgbox" folder so one can just refresh that folder for new uploads.

imgbox gallery link ONLY for this LOW is http://imgbox.com/g/yzRX7nLPDC

(again from 0900pm -1030pm EDT no uploads from me)
So even if it looks small in dimension it'll be several hundred KBs, can't post the BMP that's 8MB, @56k they'll be 5 more Dr. Masters & Benson blogs by the time
i upload 1 BIG img.

i will delete (decimate) every 5 images by Monday as to not use the img host as a storage site, have a storage(s) site but they don't like hotlinking.
FINGER CROSSED...darn i was using krazy glue
LOL
Quoting 122. TeleConnectSnow:


It's bound for someplace, and it's not houston texas. It's bound to be lost the next run when it goes back to showing nothing.
Quoting 123. hurricanes2018:



maybe a tropical storm tonight


That is a TS and has been since this afternoon as far as I'm concerned. The NHC has it as a TD still because there is currently no ASCAT scan available to them, and they are going off of pressure.

And it's a pretty well organized system too. Might see a hurricane out of this.
Quoting 106. 882MB:

Thanks to the link that was posted for old satellite imagery, I was able to find a very interesting day for me. The groundhog day severe weather outbreak in south Florida, during the epic El Nino of 97/98. I still remember that squall line that moved through the Miami area, sounded like a hurricane was passing by, and the lightning was non-stop. It was 1 of the strongest squall lines I have ever been in. Then 3 weeks later we had the February 22/23 severe weather outbreak in central Florida, with many tornadoes reported. I wonder how this Winter season will be for Florida, due to this strong El Nino.

February 2, 1998 Groundhog day Severe Weather outbreak-



February 23,1998 Central Florida Tornadoes-




82-83 was just like that..Large and powerful lows that would mature over the gulf, causing high winds and squalls. I lived on board back then and remember it very well. One of the storms nearly destroyed our marina. Many lost there boats.
129. 882MB
Quoting 127. hydrus:

82-83 was just like that..Large and powerful lows that would mature over the gulf, causing high winds and squalls. I lived on board back then and remember it very well. One of the storms nearly destroyed our marina. Many lost there boats.


I still was not born back then, but I heard that was the 2nd strongest El Nino after the 97/98. I will be checking out some images of the 82/83 season and see some of those Gulf lows your talking about.
Quoting 126. FunnelVortex:



That is a TS and has been since this afternoon as far as I'm concerned. The NHC has it as a TD still because there is currently no ASCAT scan available to them, and they are going off of pressure.

And it's a pretty well organized system too. Might see a hurricane out of this.
These things take time you guys. Yeah this is most likely a storm, but we need to have clarification before we have an upgrade.
Quoting 105. KuCommando:




Ya hear that Camerooski?? It's comin' right for ya !!
I'm very excited! I'm boarding up already, I expect at least a Cat 3 :)
Quoting 122. TeleConnectSnow:


It's bound for someplace, and it's not houston texas. It's bound to be lost the next run when it goes back to showing nothing.


How many model runs of the GFS have consistently shown this feature? Anyone know. Crownweather.com sure seems to be worried about it, BTW.
Quoting 111. Starhopper:


I was out in the eye in Wilma...there was no way to ignore the 2nd half was fast approaching. Shoulda heard the noise. I'm not sure how they missed it or were not on guard. Surely happens though.


1926, this was during the land boom where people migrated to S FL in droves. Probably had little idea what a hurricane was. Back when the city was pronounced "My-am-uh."

Quoting 112. K8eCane:



SE coast low actually looks like its moving ene now. As i commented this morning, i think whatever forms if anything, will remain a good distance off shore and not bother us except for maybe stray showers and breezy conditions with rip currents.

i dont know, but anything coming back at us probly wont be a surface low




Oh this is 144-ish hours out, apparently it leaves moisture behind that gets stuck by ridging. And has it more towards the OBX. But I've said before this is just likely a bad day to go for a swim, maybe a great day if you know how to use a surf board (I do not).
Quoting 129. 882MB:



I still was not born back then, but I heard that was the 2nd strongest El Nino after the 97/98. I will be checking out some images of the 82/83 season and see some of those Gulf lows your talking about.
I had some weather books that contained a few images of the gulf lows during the 82-83 Nino. Unfortunately, they were in the trunk of my car, which was flooded during T.S.Bob in 1985 while I was at sea. All but one book was completely ruined. It took months to dry the car out.
Quoting 106. 882MB:

Thanks to the link that was posted for old satellite imagery, I was able to find a very interesting day for me. The groundhog day severe weather outbreak in south Florida, during the epic El Nino of 97/98. I still remember that squall line that moved through the Miami area, sounded like a hurricane was passing by, and the lightning was non-stop. It was 1 of the strongest squall lines I have ever been in. Then 3 weeks later we had the February 22/23 severe weather outbreak in central Florida, with many tornadoes reported. I wonder how this Winter season will be for Florida, due to this strong El Nino.

February 2, 1998 Groundhog day Severe Weather outbreak-



February 23,1998 Central Florida Tornadoes-




These Derecho like systems that form in the GOM that streak over FLA are not unusual to occur during El Ninos. This really worries me because this El Nino has a good chance to become the strongest of all time...
Quoting 130. HurricaneAndre:

These things take time you guys. Yeah this is most likely a storm, but we need to have clarification before we have an upgrade.


I'm not criticizing the NHC. They have to work with what they've got.

Just stating my opinion. That's all.
Quoting 136. FunnelVortex:



I'm not criticizing the NHC. They have to work with what they've got.

Just stating my opinion. That's all.
I know bro. :) So do you think it'll be our next hurricane. I certainly do. Maybe a Category 2.
138. vis0
funktopGal (see comment #124 (pg3...IF LOGGED IN) OF THIS DR MASTERS BLOBBYTE for info)
this is img10s thmbnL link at imgbox image host



I sure hope this turns out to be a "ghost storm."
Quoting 106. 882MB:

Thanks to the link that was posted for old satellite imagery, I was able to find a very interesting day for me. The groundhog day severe weather outbreak in south Florida, during the epic El Nino of 97/98. I still remember that squall line that moved through the Miami area, sounded like a hurricane was passing by, and the lightning was non-stop. It was 1 of the strongest squall lines I have ever been in. Then 3 weeks later we had the February 22/23 severe weather outbreak in central Florida, with many tornadoes reported. I wonder how this Winter season will be for Florida, due to this strong El Nino.

February 2, 1998 Groundhog day Severe Weather outbreak-



February 23,1998 Central Florida Tornadoes-






This will be one year to see, that is for sure. Usually in El Ninio years my area sees more powerful winter storms (often with thundersnow) and an active severe storm season the following spring and summer. I'm hoping I get something nice out of this :)
Looks like we're on the verge of having three new tropical storms after a hiatus, one each in the Atlantic, EPac and CPac.
Quoting 137. HurricaneAndre:

I know bro. :) So do you think it'll be our next hurricane. I certainly do. Maybe a Category 2.


If it goes Cat 2 it will be on the lower end. But it may suprise us. Don't underestimate the "I" storms, they have quite a rep...
Hottest Summer...
Link
Of all the possibles this feeble year in the Atlantic, this one looks to have the best shot at becoming major.
Quoting 145. BayFog:

Of all the possibles this feeble year in the Atlantic, this one looks to have the best shot at becoming major.


Danny was a category 3 for a short time
Quoting 146. FunnelVortex:



Danny was a category 3 for a short time

Yeah, but that was virtually a fluke given the conditions. 10L is good to go...it would appear.
Quoting 145. BayFog:

Of all the possibles this feeble year in the Atlantic, this one looks to have the best shot at becoming major.



We have already had a major hurricane this year
Quoting 133. win1gamegiantsplease:



1926, this was during the land boom where people migrated to S FL in droves. Probably had little idea what a hurricane was. Back when the city was pronounced "My-am-uh."



Oh this is 144-ish hours out, apparently it leaves moisture behind that gets stuck by ridging. And has it more towards the OBX. But I've said before this is just likely a bad day to go for a swim, maybe a great day if you know how to use a surf board (I do not).


Agreed except i doubt the HH fly into that mess. And i DONT surf either LOL
Quoting 147. BayFog:


Yeah, but that was virtually a fluke given the conditions. 10L is good to go...it would appear.


Not a fluke.


How many times do I have to tell people? This season has been pretty impressive given how strong of an El Ninio is currently present.
Quoting 148. Hurricanes101:



We have already had a major hurricane this year


Yes, even if you needed reading glasses to be able to see Danny on the tropical Atlantic satellite pics
Quoting 139. PCCfan:



I sure hope this turns out to be a "ghost storm."
Plenty of things will change for sure, that's a little over two weeks away.
Quoting 150. FunnelVortex:



Not a fluke.


How many times do I have to tell people? This season has been pretty impressive given how strong of an El Ninio is currently present.


Certainly not a fluke. SST's in MDR and lessening SAL really opened up CV season. This El-Nino has been so strong that SST's in MDR enabled an above average number of storms for an El-Nino season. Certainly not out of the question that we get 12-15 storms this season. But........ACE is very very low for the number of storms and against the average. Been an amazing season to follow. 60West, the point of no return for storms this year.
Quoting 133. win1gamegiantsplease:



1926, this was during the land boom where people migrated to S FL in droves. Probably had little idea what a hurricane was. Back when the city was pronounced "My-am-uh."



Reply
Lol, nailed the pronunciation. I guess now (like then) the key is educating the newcomers on the many effects and hazards of hurricanes - to help them figure out how to stay safe. Hard to believe the old timers didn't inform others. When was NWS founded? No Headlines in paper? Maybe no one knew? What is the storm tally for years 1900-1930 in Miami? No weatherman in a town of over 42000? So sad.
Check this:

I think they knew about eyes. No? (my guess) Archives have 1851 storms. 1875 above.

Population from Florida census Link
1900 4,955
1910 11,933
1920 42,753
1930 142,955 ..............Year 2000: 2,253,362
The paths of October Hurricanes in Florida. It really shows where most storms that form in October in that region, form from.
Very dry for the islands next couple of weeks.
Quoting 115. K8eCane:



by the time you hear that you better hope you arent far from the house if you have ventured outside

Yes! For sure.
Ps that was what I heard on the horizon, it's an accurate call. Strangest sound. Don't think I wanna hear it again. lol
Quoting 151. win1gamegiantsplease:



Yes, even if you needed reading glasses to be able to see Danny on the tropical Atlantic satellite pics


Some historic storms this year. George for the Cape Verde islands and Danny was on of the top three smallest majors of all time. Not to mention Dominica had one of their worst disasters ever when the wave that was Erika opened up over the island in an epic deluge. Gulf, BOC, Western Caribbean will be where the one originates if in fact we get a bad one this year. Long way from done.
Say hello to Ida in an hour.
Quoting 139. PCCfan:



I sure hope this turns out to be a "ghost storm."
Not even ghostly at 384 hours. I like looking at the hemispheric patterns that far out. One can extrapolate what major changes may occur globally. This is 240 hours. Looks like the subtropical jet will strengthen, with a mostly zonal flow over the U.S. The largest dips hemispherically speaking are south of Greenland and near the Kamchatka Peninsula.

Central Florida, February 23, 1998 -- "The Night Of The Tornadoes".
I've lived in FLA since 1958 and that was one to remember. A dozen stories about that night.
A friend of mine was a State Trooper patrolling the Turnpike when the call came in that there was a tornado in a RV/trailer park. He had just passed by the park so he turned around, and when he got back there there was debris all across the highway. It was stormy and the middle of the night, so he never saw the tornado. Near as he could figure it had crossed the road about 30 seconds behind him.

Thank goodness there is the NWS, Wilmington, NC analysis to refer to...

000
FXUS62 KILM 182331
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
731 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW MAY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT REMAINS OVER VERY WARM WATER. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHOULD STALL
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...PRODUCING UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CAPE FEAR REGION...SOUTH OF WILMINGTON AND ACROSS NEW HANOVER
AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING A BIT FURTHER INLAND THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

Also the WPC provides the uncertainty of the SE low..but hey that's why the HH are scheduled to fly out tomorrow..to provide better data for the models..

THE FORECAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS MARKED BY THE MOST
UNCERTAINTY, WITH THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF
MOISTURE-LADEN EASTERLIES UNCLEAR. THERE IS ALSO THE SMALLER-SCALE
COMPLICATING FACTOR OF WHAT BECOMES OF THE LOW CURRENTLY PASSING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST--WHERE IT WILL TRACK, HOW TROPICAL IN
NATURE IT MAY BECOME, AND SO FORTH. USED A CONSERVATIVE BLEND OF
THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS TO KEEP THE THREAT OF RAINFALL IN
PLAY IN THE WIDEST ARC UNTIL THE FLOW GETS SORTED MORE
CONSISTENTLY BY THE MODELS.

You may continue on..until tomorrow..peace..
Quoting 152. Climate175:

Plenty of things will change for sure, that's a little over two weeks away.


Has this shown up on previous model runs?
Alright -- so we have two depressions right now, I know this isn't likely with this scenario because 09L is doing terrible, but if there was ever two depressions that became a TS in the same time/advisory, who would be named what? Random thoughts.. lol
Quoting 164. Articuno:

Alright -- so we have two depressions right now, I know this isn't likely with this scenario because 09L is doing terrible, but if there was ever two depressions that became a TS in the same time/advisory, who would be named what? Random thoughts.. lol
09 would be Ida because it formed first
Quoting 162. ncstorm:

Thank goodness there is the NWS, Wilmington, NC analysis to refer to...

000
FXUS62 KILM 182331
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
731 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW MAY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT REMAINS OVER VERY WARM WATER. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHOULD STALL
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...PRODUCING UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CAPE FEAR REGION...SOUTH OF WILMINGTON AND ACROSS NEW HANOVER
AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING A BIT FURTHER INLAND THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

Also the WPC provides the uncertainty of the SE low..but hey that's why the HH are scheduled to fly out tomorrow..to provide better data for the models..

THE FORECAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS MARKED BY THE MOST
UNCERTAINTY, WITH THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF
MOISTURE-LADEN EASTERLIES UNCLEAR. THERE IS ALSO THE SMALLER-SCALE
COMPLICATING FACTOR OF WHAT BECOMES OF THE LOW CURRENTLY PASSING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST--WHERE IT WILL TRACK, HOW TROPICAL IN
NATURE IT MAY BECOME, AND SO FORTH. USED A CONSERVATIVE BLEND OF
THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS TO KEEP THE THREAT OF RAINFALL IN
PLAY IN THE WIDEST ARC UNTIL THE FLOW GETS SORTED MORE
CONSISTENTLY BY THE MODELS.

You may continue on..until tomorrow..peace..


i didnt see that. One should always refer to NHC and NWS. I think the retrograde part is the snafu

10L
Quoting 163. pureet1948:



Has this shown up on previous model runs?
Yes, but it drops it one run and picks it back another run, it is still too far out to get the fine details.
sna·fu
snaˈfo͞o/Submit

noun
1.
a confused or chaotic state; a mess.
"an enormous amount of my time was devoted to untangling snafus"
synonyms: muddle, mess, tangle, jumble, confusion; More
adjective
1.
in utter confusion or chaos.
"our refrigeration plant is snafu"
verb
1.
throw (a situation) into chaos.
"you ignored his orders and snafued everything"
for the 1st time in a long time we now have TD 5C in the C PAC

CP, 05, 2015091900, , BEST, 0, 181N, 1748W, 30, 1005, TD
Quoting 139. PCCfan:



I sure hope this turns out to be a "ghost storm."
Remember what was forecast just a couple of days ago for today? A 996 mb low up in the Big Bend area, maybe headed for the Gulf. Massive rains for almost the entire state with gale force winds. It was going to be terrible.

Remember how today really turned out in Florida before you put any faith in a model hundreds of hours out.
Quoting 143. BayFog:

Holy Obama, it looks like the next name on the CPac list is Malia.




That's a cyclone if i've ever seen one
Quoting 169. K8eCane:

sna·fu
snaˈfo͞o/Submit

noun
1.
a confused or chaotic state; a mess.
"an enormous amount of my time was devoted to untangling snafus"
synonyms: muddle, mess, tangle, jumble, confusion; More
adjective
1.
in utter confusion or chaos.
"our refrigeration plant is snafu"
verb
1.
throw (a situation) into chaos.
"you ignored his orders and snafued everything"

The real definition will get me in trouble here, but the cleaned up version is "Situation normal, all fouled up". :-0
Quoting 162. ncstorm:

Thank goodness there is the NWS, Wilmington, NC analysis to refer to...

000
FXUS62 KILM 182331
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
731 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW MAY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT REMAINS OVER VERY WARM WATER. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHOULD STALL
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...PRODUCING UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CAPE FEAR REGION...SOUTH OF WILMINGTON AND ACROSS NEW HANOVER
AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING A BIT FURTHER INLAND THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

Also the WPC provides the uncertainty of the SE low..but hey that's why the HH are scheduled to fly out tomorrow..to provide better data for the models..

THE FORECAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS MARKED BY THE MOST
UNCERTAINTY, WITH THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF
MOISTURE-LADEN EASTERLIES UNCLEAR. THERE IS ALSO THE SMALLER-SCALE
COMPLICATING FACTOR OF WHAT BECOMES OF THE LOW CURRENTLY PASSING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST--WHERE IT WILL TRACK, HOW TROPICAL IN
NATURE IT MAY BECOME, AND SO FORTH. USED A CONSERVATIVE BLEND OF
THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS TO KEEP THE THREAT OF RAINFALL IN
PLAY IN THE WIDEST ARC UNTIL THE FLOW GETS SORTED MORE
CONSISTENTLY BY THE MODELS.

You may continue on..until tomorrow..peace..


18Z GFS shows exactly what they are saying
I thinks many peeps in da middle of the U.S. are goin to witness a cold sloppy, and possibly snowyn winter. Just saw that the blocking is forecast to be from Cali all the way to the pole. If that happens, lows will dive out of Canada into the central U.S....get da salt..:)
Quoting 173. sar2401:

The real definition will get me in trouble here, but the cleaned up version is "Situation normal, all fouled up". :-0


i worked at a hospital that was like that for a long time. Each night when admin called for the nightly report, that was the answer they got lol
Of course that was after the Bill no I mean Hilary administrations healing hand on healthcare happened
The weather was always nice there tho
Quoting 174. will45:



18Z GFS shows exactly what they are saying


Euro leaning towards it too, though not as organized

18z GFS


12z ECMWF
Quoting 158. DeepSeaRising:



Some historic storms this year. George for the Cape Verde islands and Danny was on of the top three smallest majors of all time. Not to mention Dominica had one of their worst disasters ever when the wave that was Erika opened up over the island in an epic deluge. Gulf, BOC, Western Caribbean will be where the one originates if in fact we get a bad one this year. Long way from done.


I see what you did there, I get the Weasley twins mixed up myself from time to time.
The latest Euro does bring another low into the gulf..not surprising..

Lots more blue after past few days.
Quoting 178. win1gamegiantsplease:



Euro leaning towards it too, though not as organized






yes it is the time of the season that home brew systems should be watched
Quoting 132. pureet1948:



How many model runs of the GFS have consistently shown this feature? Anyone know. Crownweather.com sure seems to be worried about it, BTW.
Crown Weather has to be worried about something. Those teaser headlines are what sells subscriptions. Look at the last 10 of those headlines and see how many things ever actually happened.

Unless you just like to worry, forget the models. Just check the surface maps every day. If a low shows up in the BOC or western Gulf, then start to worry. Until then, it's fair skies now, and it should be a nice weekend. Enjoy it.

Quoting 182. will45:



yes it is the time of the season that home brew systems should be watched


This is true and i never underestimate what the potential is on these things really
185. vis0
funktopGal (see comment #124 (pg3...IF LOGGED IN) OF THIS DR MASTERS BLOBBYTE for info)
image host
image host
image host
BTW this is not spamming its "cornbeefing" ...quality leftovers
Quoting 177. K8eCane:



i worked at a hospital that was like that for a long time. Each night when admin called for the nightly report, that was the answer they got lol
Of course that was after the Bill no I mean Hilary administrations healing hand on healthcare happened
The weather was always nice there tho
What's going on in healthcare now is one of the reasons why I'm glad I'm retired. I went to a new doctor last week. I expected it would take some time for the paperwork but they had just put in a new computer. I took almost three hours to get me in the computer, got my name wrong twice, and changed all my future appointment dates. Just before I left the sheriff's department as a paramedic, they were going to have us do charting on a tablet...in the back of a helicopter...while trying to treat the patient...as we bounced around at 1,000 feet AGL in the usual rough air. Yeah, healthcare in the future is going to be fabulous.
Quoting 186. Starhopper:




Uh oh, the GFS heard me call 96L "a bad beach day, unless you can surf."

And on your last reply, I think those are Miami-Dade County stats. Miami proper is much less than 2 million inhabitants. But Miami was only incorporated in 1896, settles 70 years prior, not sure how many direct hits by a hurricane they've had before 1926.
Quoting 183. sar2401:

Crown Weather has to be worried about something. Those teaser headlines are what sells subscriptions. Look at the last 10 of those headlines and see how many things ever actually happened.

Unless you just like to worry, forget the models. Just check the surface maps every day. If a low shows up in the BOC or western Gulf, then start to worry. Until then, it's fair skies now, and it should be a nice weekend. Enjoy it.




Got a point. NONE of what he's predicted seems to have happened. Or am I reading it wrong?
Quoting 171. sar2401:

Remember what was forecast just a couple of days ago for today? A 996 mb low up in the Big Bend area, maybe headed for the Gulf. Massive rains for almost the entire state with gale force winds. It was going to be terrible.

Remember how today really turned out in Florida before you put any faith in a model hundreds of hours out.

I'm sure you're right. I'm not going to concern myself unless the same forecast holds up at 120 hours.
Quoting 186. Starhopper:


OK, I'm going with the BAMD on this one. We should be able to track it for about a month on that trajectory.
Quoting 191. sar2401:

OK, I'm going with the BAMD on this one. We should be able to track it for about a month on that trajectory.

Lol right on.
Quoting 190. PCCfan:


I'm sure you're right. I'm not going to concern myself unless the same forecast holds up at 120 hours.
That's a wise move. If something is not already on the map in five days, it's very unlikely anything ever will be. The other thing is look at the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC at the same time periods. If they all agree, we might be on to something. If only one, say the CMC for the heck of it, is showing some kind of massive storms the other two don't, you can safely disregard that until there's some model agreement. Read the NHC discussion every day as well. They analyze these models constantly, and they'll be the first to mention if one looks threatening.
Quoting 149. K8eCane:



Agreed except i doubt the HH fly into that mess. And i DONT surf either LOL


I'd lean towards that too, 96L would really have to get things cooking to warrant jet fuel combustion by the looks of it now. We'll know for sure when we wake up in the morning.
Quoting 172. Articuno:



That's a cyclone if i've ever seen one


Great outflow for an unnamed storm
Quoting 189. pureet1948:



Got a point. NONE of what he's predicted seems to have happened. Or am I reading it wrong?
No, you're not. He's an amateur just like us. He looks at the same models. During the season, there's always some place that "needs to watched". Look at this one for Sept. 16:

Low Pressure To Form In The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico & Also Off Of The US Southeast Coast By Thursday & Friday; The Area In Close To The United States Coastline Needs To Be Monitored Very Closely For Tropical Development Over The Next Two Weeks

Well, yeah, but we already knew about the low in the Atlantic. He didn't mention the Gulf low was pretty much going to fizzle today. The United States coastline is kind of a lot of area to monitor very closely, especially if you're monitoring New Hampshire. I'm not trying to trash the guy. He actually has a pretty good site, but he does use scare headlines to sell subscriptions.
Quoting 184. K8eCane:



This is true and i never underestimate what the potential is on these things really
Yep..Many cat-5's formed relatively close to the U.S.
Quoting 195. win1gamegiantsplease:



Great outflow for an unnamed storm


Buzzsaw
Quoting 168. Climate175:

Yes, but it drops it one run and picks it back another run, it is still too far out to get the fine details.


Anything that far out is mostly a pipe dream. Anything past 5 days rarely ever comes to fruition.
...TROPICAL STORM IDA FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 37.5W
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Good night....zzzzzzzzz
We have TS Ida
Quoting 185. vis0:

funktopGal (see comment #124 (pg3...IF LOGGED IN) OF THIS DR MASTERS BLOBBYTE for info)
image host
image host
image host
BTW this is not spamming its "cornbeefing" ...quality leftovers
Not spamming in my book. Those are some really nice images. How long does it take you to massage a NOAA image into a FunktopGal image?
we now have IDA
...TROPICAL STORM IDA FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 18
Location: 13.7°N 37.5°W
Moving: NW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Quoting 202. Hurricanes101:

We have TS Ida
And it's about time. I can never remember all those TD numbers.
Quoting 207. Hurricanes101:

Wait, they have it moving southeast on day 5?




looks like a stall


They have Ida moving SE slightly on day 5
Ida should begin to meander in about 4 days and even
drift southward or southeastward by day 5.
Quoting 206. sar2401:

And it's about time. I can never remember all those TD numbers.

Is that ex 10? lol
213. FOREX
Quoting 139. PCCfan:



I sure hope this turns out to be a "ghost storm."
water temps have dropped nearly 10 degrees in the northern Gulf in last two weeks.
Quoting 202. Hurricanes101:

We have TS Ida



look what else we got for the 1st time in the long time we now have TD 5C
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015
500 PM HST FRI SEP 18 2015

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 360 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
JOHNSTON ISLAND DEVELOPED WELL-DEFINED BANDING WITHIN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND NORTHERN QUADRANT TODAY. A 2102 UTC ASCAT PASS
DETECTED A CLOSED CIRCULATION AROUND AN ELONGATED CENTER WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND NUMEROUS AREAS OF 30
KT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C...THE TENTH TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE 2015 SEASON. DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 2.0/30 KT FROM HFO AND SAB
AND 1.5/25 KT FROM JTWC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...OR 35 DEGREES...AT 13
KT. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ALONG THIS TRACK BETWEEN A DEEP RIDGE
FAR TO THE NORTHEAST AND A DIGGING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD MOTION...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOTION IS EXPECTED INTO
SATURDAY. THE CYCLONE WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND ACCELERATE ON
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT INCREASINGLY INTERACTS WITH THE SLOW
MOVING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF A RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS MODEL
ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF DIVERGING
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.

SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BUT THE
BIG CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SYSTEM RESPONDS TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
FIVE-C IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT AND IS
EXPERIENCING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THIS FLOW IS
RESTRICTING OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BUT IS PRODUCING AN
OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EDGES CLOSER...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY AND ARREST
THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS LGEM
CLOSELY AND ASSUMES THAT THIS PROCESS WILL BEGIN LATE SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY. THIS FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...IN WHICH MOST MEMBERS ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY LONGER.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT FROM LISIANSKI
ISLAND TO MARO REEF TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 18.6N 174.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 19.8N 173.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 21.1N 172.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 22.9N 172.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 24.8N 172.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 29.5N 172.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 23/0000Z 37.1N 172.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 24/0000Z 42.2N 176.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER WROE

Long animation of Ida Link
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015
500 PM HST FRI SEP 18 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS FAR WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 174.5W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF LISIANSKI ISLAND
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SSW OF MARO REEF
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT...FROM LISIANSKI ISLAND
TO MARO REEF TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT...FROM
LISIANSKI ISLAND TO MARO REEF TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 174.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT STARTING
ON SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SOUTH SWELLS WILL ARRIVE ON THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT ON SATURDAY...AND SEAS
WILL BECOME VERY LARGE AND INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS ON
SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE
Quoting 216. TropicalAnalystwx13:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015
500 PM HST FRI SEP 18 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS FAR WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 174.5W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF LISIANSKI ISLAND
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SSW OF MARO REEF
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT...FROM LISIANSKI ISLAND
TO MARO REEF TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT...FROM
LISIANSKI ISLAND TO MARO REEF TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 174.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT STARTING
ON SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SOUTH SWELLS WILL ARRIVE ON THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT ON SATURDAY...AND SEAS
WILL BECOME VERY LARGE AND INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS ON
SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE



now now i saw it 1st see post 214
218. vis0
funktopGal (see comment #124 (pg3...IF LOGGED IN) OF THIS DR MASTERS BLOBBYTE for info)
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Santa i hope yer lurking...this should take off half of my naughties on yer list... only 342 to go...till i break even on yer list
Quoting 156. Gearsts:

Very dry for the islands next couple of weeks.



That's why I hate the fish storms !!
Quoting 213. FOREX:

water temps have dropped nearly 10 degrees in the northern Gulf in last two weeks.


Where ?


From a Northern GOM NDBC Buoy

The Water Temp is 83.3 F



Station 42039
NDBC
Location: 28.739N 86.006W
Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2015 02:50:00 UTC
Winds: NE (50°) at 9.7 kt gusting to 11.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 2.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 5 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (84°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.87 in and rising
Air Temperature: 82.0 F
Dew Point: 72.9 F
Water Temperature: 83.3 F
223. vis0

Quoting 66. Patrap:

Exxon thought about benefitting mankind but decided to make money instead

It may be hard to read but this memo, written in 1978 by Harold N. Weinberg, an Exxon manager. But what it reveals is that 37 years ago, Exxon understood that their product might be a threat to humanity. Weinberg offered some “grandiose thoughts on what we, Exxon might undertake to do in connection with the ‘CO2 problem.’”

Weinberg proposed that the oil giant “be the initiator of a worldwide ‘CO2 in the Atmosphere’ R&D program along the lines of the International Geophysical Year concept.”

He wrote, “This may be the kind of opportunity we are looking for to have Exxon technology, management and leadership resources put into the context of a project aimed at benefitting mankind.”


He went on to say, “What would be more appropriate than for the world’s leading energy company and leading oil company [to] take the lead in trying to define whether a long-term CO2 problem really exists, and if so, what counter measures would be appropriate.”

This a good example of how addiction is not just drugs its when ones conscience is EXCLUSIVELY overtaken by carnal greed, be that the addiction is via ones genes or as a fresh new thought. exxon could now be making billions by having studied and in time created some device to take co2 out of the atmosphere and use that removed gas to generate cleaner energy, making share holders happy (making money isn't a bad thing...except for me) and making the public happy and gaining more customers.
 Instead we are waiting for some miracle or last minute "eurika"
225. vis0
funktopGal (see comment #124 (pg3...IF LOGGED IN) OF THIS DR MASTERS BLOBBYTE for info)
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sar2401 pressure is steady or still lowering in your area? (still on pg3 of this blog, if its already posted no need to reply i'll catchup...mmm french friesss)
Just posted a blog update on the Atlantic tropics. Extensive discussion on the latest with newly-formed Ida, TD9, and also 96L.
227. vis0

Quoting 203. sar2401:

Not spamming in my book. Those are some really nice images. How long does it take you to massage a NOAA image into a FunktopGal image?
These  ~10secs each, really quality 3D ~1min. all hand processed they are 1990s filters so i cannot automate them. their code (~100+ of this format) is in a damaged 2002 HD in P.R. Trying to edit them so one can see cloud tops as it where sundown/sunrise shadowing at all compass directions. That was one of the ideas i had on my now delete blogbytes in which i was hoping someone good graphing could use my filters to generate such animations. i stopped that work last yr then recently began to  tinker with the idea just to waste time here a view using an old graphing program low quality as not to show detail ...its top secret®...mmm popcorn (hope ya enjoy the stoikens)
Quoting 181. Starhopper:

Lots more blue after past few days.



On this scale green is high soil moisture and blue is saturation. Anything in blue is water logged, and green is plenty moist, yellow is neutral.
229. vis0
funktopGal (see comment #124 (pg3...IF LOGGED IN) OF THIS DR MASTERS BLOBBYTE for info) imgbox folder is :: http://imgbox.com/g/yzRX7nLPDC (hope they stay in seq. order as img names are auto-titled by imgbox)
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Sorry for the delay,1) blame sar2401 he axed a question. Imagine someone still wanting to learn at his age when all one has to do is ask unckie googi.  Why google learned me my alfabits...a b c g o o g l e  t h e  r e s t  a r e 1001001 t o  m e  l e  meno p q r Es tv w x y z,.
 2) plus someone was holding open the subway cars doors...dING dong


Say hello to Ida
Does Ida run into a brick wall of shear or a trof?


233. vis0
funktopGal (see comment #124 (pg3...IF LOGGED IN) OF THIS DR MASTERS BLOBBYTE for info) imgbox folder is :: http://imgbox.com/g/yzRX7nLPDC (hope they stay in seq. order as img names are auto-titled by imgbox)
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i think enough have been posted so you all know where to find the rest, NO not in yer DEL folder but in the aforementioned imgbox folder next to your grocers
freezer. Next uploads after my 2 min beauty nap and 4 hr ugly deep sleep. BTW if i'd upload this at the same quality but as a joined images in an mp4 you would not see the mp4 till 0530AM (90mins from now)
zzzzzzzzzz
ULL 450 miles west of California/Mexico Border heading south to meet and pull up tropical moisture SW of Cabo San Lucas. Forecast is for the ULL to get about halfway down to Cabo and then lift N and NE across Soo Cal. PWS could be in excess of 2.00 inches. Rains forecast for Monday-Wednesday time frame......Stay tuned!

The Guardian, Sept 18, 2015: The Kalavapalli river in the Anantapur district of India flows for the first time in 20 years of severe drought. The video, originally posted to Facebook on 8 September, shows people gathering on the dry river bed and shouting and celebrating as they see the water coming. The slow flow gathers momentum and the bed floods. Watch the full video on YouTube


16.09.2015: In Drought Area in Anantapuram district Kalavapalli River begin its flow after 20 Years to wipe out drought

Have a nice weekend morning, everybody!
Ida is stronger than 40 mph imo.
The news below of 12 victims due to flooding in south Algeria didn't hit the English speaking world yet (many articles only in French available; translation below with help of google):

Algerie: Les pluies diluviennes provoquent la mort d'au moins 12 personnes
Publie le 18.09.2015 - 12:19
At least 12 people died on the night of Wednesday to Thursday in Tamanrasset (far south of Algeria), following torrential rains. According to the civil protection service, the bodies of nine African nationals, whose nationality was not specified, and three Algerians were reportedly found.
The victims washed away by the flood of Oued [= Wadi = dry river bed] Amsel have been located thanks to the intervention of thirty officers of civil protection, alerted Thursday morning by citizens of the disappearance of several people. Eight bodies were recovered near the town of Adherdhi and four near Amsel near Tamarasset.
A crisis unit was installed on Thursday at the headquarters of the Prefecture of Tamanrasset to monitor the situation. This as new rain is forecast and weather services have already recorded a rainfall of 22 mm. Also at Tamanrasset, these heavy rains also caused power outages and extensive damage to the electrical network.




Parts of (South)-Western Sahara really saw unusually wet weather this summer:

Source.

Evaluation for the current week:
PDF Climate Prediction Center's Africa Hazards Outlook
September 17-September 23, 2015
Tropical Storm IDA

5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2015
Location: 14.4°N 38.5°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph



crazy weather modeles here!
On the topic of September heat, DC metro is running unusually warm for the month, probably 90'th percentile for this period but not record breaking hot. Sept 2005, 2010 and 1980 are a few in my memory that ran warmer. And I'm expecting near to only slightly above normal temps for the rest of the month. No chilly days though.
Morning All. Great day for Football.

From the Miami NWS this morning. Here is the cause for the spread between the GFS - ECMWF mentioned in the IDA discussion.


MID TO LATE WEEK MODELS SHOW THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
US CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST...A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
YESTERDAY`S RUNS. 19/00Z GFS LIFTS THE LOW OUT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FAIRLY QUICKLY WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS IT RETROGRADING BACK TO
THE GULF.


WITH THE GFS`S MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...FLOW REMAINS MORE
SOUTHWEST THAN SOUTH AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOT QUITE AS
PRONOUNCED ACROSS S FL. NONETHELESS...WE ARE LOOKING AT A RETURN TO
A STORMY PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
TS Ida...



TD9...

Quoting 225. vis0:

sar2401 pressure is steady or still lowering in your area? (still on pg3 of this blog, if its already posted no need to reply i'll catchup...mmm french friesss)
LOL. Pressure here was steady most of the night at 29.84. At 0530, pressure started to rise and has continued to do so, now (0730) at 29.92. Either the low has moved further east or it's weakening. I'd make a guess, but I don't' want to upset anyone hoping for a hurricane.
96L...

Past 30 day rainfall estimates for south Florida.

District wide average 9.5"
S.W. Florida average 12"
Top of range average 17" (Southwest Fl.)

I'm glad that the weather has cleared up today in S Florida, as my Canes take on Nebraska! The Canes are very unpredictable in big games, they either show up, or are no where to be found. Hopefully they will show up! :)
Invest 96L

Invest 96L
This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.

Last Updated Sep 19, 2015 12 GMT
Location 30.9 77.9W Movement N
Wind 30 MPH
a chance that it could come to florida. geez
One nit-pick about something in the blog. This is NOT the final week of the ASTRONOMICAL summer. It might be the final week of official summer in North America, but astronomically it has been northern hemisphere autumn for several weeks already. Astronomically the September equinox is the MIDDLE of northern hemisphere autumn. Also, officially across much of the northern hemisphere autumn officially began at the beginning of September, while in the southern hemisphere spring officially began at the start of September.
Good morning everyone! I see we have Tropical Storm Ida out in the MDR. Ida's struggling right now with wind shear causing the LLC to be exposed with the bulk of the convection off to the SW however the global models all show Ida strengthening into a potential hurricane beyond 5 days as it heads on out. Could produce a fair amount of ACE though.
watch out for invest 96L maybe the next sandy!!
The Atlantic looking nice an quite for Mid September.
Quoting 258. lopab2783:

The Atlantic looking nice an quite for Mid September.


are you still sleeping!!!



WATCH OUT HERE!!
261. vis0
funktopGal (see comment #124 (pg3...IF LOGGED IN) OF THIS DR MASTERS BLOBBYTE for info) imgbox folder is :: http://imgbox.com/g/yzRX7nLPDC (hope they stay in seq. order as img names are auto-titled by imgbox)

Uploading more as i speak, chl the imgfolder.
woke up late, since vis sats are coming soon once vis gets to east coast i stop producing this batch since all one has to do is view vis, SIT DOWN everyone ...i do mean 1, sar2401... i meant visible sats
Quoting 256. JrWeathermanFL:




Nice swirl...
Quoting 255. CybrTeddy:

Good morning everyone! I see we have Tropical Storm Ida out in the MDR. Ida's struggling right now with wind shear causing the LLC to be exposed with the bulk of the convection off to the SW however the global models all show Ida strengthening into a potential hurricane beyond 5 days as it heads on out. Could produce a fair amount of ACE though.


Shear isn't impacting Ida THAT hard. It's still a well organized TS. But it is just taking in some dry air on it's west flank. Should be able to fight it off later though.
Quoting 248. Sfloridacat5:

Past 30 day rainfall estimates for south Florida.

District wide average 9.5"
S.W. Florida average 12"
Top of range average 17" (Southwest Fl.)


" Estimates typically within 20% of actual rainfall "...Quite a margin of error, especially where there was 17 inches of rain.
Interesting little feature on the ECMWF. It brings a low up into S.W. Florida, but it's pretty far out in time.

Summer is not over YET!!!! WU has these first two days as 100/102....
Quoting 264. hydrus:

" Estimates typically within 20% of actual rainfall "...Quite a margin of error, especially where there was 17 inches of rain.


Still better than some backyard rain gauges. ahah
At 192 hours (8 days out), low comes up into the southern GOM.
The Astronomical vs. Meteorological

Astronomical Seasons Change at the Equinoxes and Solstices

The astronomical seasons are the ones most of us are familiar with because their start dates are listed on our calendars. They're called astronomical because, like our calendar, the dates of their occurrence are based on the position of Earth in relation to the sun.

Full link to "About Education article"

Link
Quoting 267. Sfloridacat5:



Still better than some backyard rain gauges. ahah

This is true. I calibrated mine myself, so it is accurate to 100th of an inch. Which is more accurate than I really need.
The low forms down in the western Caribbean at 168 hours.
Quoting 270. hydrus:

This is true. I calibrated mine myself, so it is accurate to 100th of an inch. Which is more accurate than I really need.


No rain bucket and a ruler? lol
I use a Davis Vantage Vue weather station. It seems to do a pretty good job.
Quoting 235. HurricaneHunterJoe:





Joe, you mean you have no weather there today?
Quoting 273. Grothar:




Joe, you mean you have no weather there today?


Typical...
Quoting 268. Sfloridacat5:

At 192 hours (8 days out), low comes up into the southern GOM.

Models have picked up on that for a while, if its still there in a couple days, we may have something. The Euro has a depression over S.W. Florida at 216..To far out, but who knows.

Yeah, the Euro hasn't been batting a 1000 lately. So I'm not too confident.
Quoting 277. hurricanes2018:




The other storms this year: "Let's go past 60W!" *all die in the shear*

Ida: "lol nope." *turns away and hangs out there*


Really strange track... Keeps shifting... The models do not know where the thing is headed.
Quoting 276. Sfloridacat5:

Yeah, the Euro hasn't been batting a 1000 lately. So I'm not too confident.
No model..None , zero , has done very well with systems that havent formed yet. I wonder if it is possible, even far in the future, for computer models to properly forecast systems that have not formed yet.
Good Saturday morning everyone.

Quoting 276. Sfloridacat5:

Yeah, the Euro hasn't been batting a 1000 lately. So I'm not too confident.


More like a 1/1000 average.
Quoting 277. hurricanes2018:




From what I gathered in reading the past few discussions is that because of the significant model spread at the end of the forecast period they are showing a stall at the end. I've stopped looking at them so that's what I would do. Point A to Point B then figure out B to C.
High pressure could stick around through the rest of the month, it's evolution is something to keep an eye on.
Quoting 228. Jedkins01:



On this scale green is high soil moisture and blue is saturation. Anything in blue is water logged, and green is plenty moist, yellow is neutral.
I think this is a useful map, it highlights the differences in the climate between North FL. and South FL. the latter being more tropical and the former being more sub-tropical. If the El Nino pattern kicks into gear I would suspect the greens starting to fill in for North FL. by this winter. This is good, hopefully and knock on wood we don't see any droughts anytime soon, at the very least we may be able to scale back some of this rainfall for next summer if we return to neutral or even La Nina.
285. SLU
Who would have thought that the storm tracks would congregate in the MDR. Most people were calling for mostly "homegrown" development with nothing but shear and dry air in the tropics.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 259. hurricanes2018:


are you still sleeping!!!

Yes very very sleepy and covered up in a blanket.....  shear and dry air seems destine to find any cloud that pops up before the engine can warm.  Remember Its mid september a low -to mid grade tropical storm traversing more of the same obstacles we have seen out everything else that has formed in the CV'S  teeth of shear and dry air is not that awakening for most and at the same time very much welcomed. If you see something different (@ the present moment) I'm a good listener and will be looking for an awakening until we get a curtain call on this season.
Quoting 278. FunnelVortex:



The other storms this year: "Let's go past 60W!" *all die in the shear*

Ida: "lol nope." *turns away and hangs out there*


Really strange track... Keeps shifting... The models do not know where the thing is headed.
The NHC 10:00 forecast discussion laid it out pretty well.

Low- to mid-level ridging to the north and northeast of Ida is
inducing a slightly faster west-northwestward motion, or 295/10 kt.
The ridge is expected to weaken within the next 48 hours, leaving
Ida between two deep-layer lows, one located over the eastern
Atlantic and the other northeast of the Leeward Islands. This
should cause Ida to become nearly stationary or meander by days 3
through 5. With the exception of the UKMET model, the other track
models seem to be trending toward a solution in which the eastern
Atlantic trough has at least some influence on Ida's motion, and the
updated NHC track forecast now shows a slow eastward drift on days 4
and 5. Overall though, the NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one and is close to the model consensus aids.


Ida is already encountering 20 knots of westerly shear. The models are almost zero help in this situation. Ida will just drift until a trough develops that can carry Ida away. In this scenario, it's possible Ida never makes it to a hurricane and then starts a slow weakening process. As usual this year, Ida is going to be another frustrating storm to track.
Quoting 235. HurricaneHunterJoe:




I don't like the set up of this situation. Qpf of 2-3 inches across many spots of Arizona when their average monthly precip total is under one inch. Fact is they don't get much rainfall at all. So hopefully all is well in the desert and these rainfall estimates don't come to fruition this El Niño is making noise full swing now. hopefully he cools down before he turns into man and does good to all In his path!! Living in Northern California we are hoping for an inch or two of rain each week and a foot of snow each week in the mountains all over the west coast. Who knows, hard to say, global climate is a beast to predict! Wouldn't be fun if we didn't have a hard time predicting it!! Cheers all and thanks for all the info and commentary on the Earths meteorological, climatological, geophysical, astronomical, etc., ongoing!! And a huge shout out to Dr. masters and Dr. Bob Henson!!