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Two Pacific-sized disasters: the Samoan tsunami and Typhoon Ketsana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:29 PM GMT on September 30, 2009

The Pacific spawned another huge natural disaster yesterday, when a magnitude 8.0 - 8.3 earthquake near Samoa generated a tsunami that devastated portions of American Samoa and neighboring islands. While the ocean surface was only displaced about three inches by the force of the earthquake near its epicenter, the rupture occurred near the 10,000 meter-deep Tonga-Kermadec Trench, along a swath 200 - 300 km long. A column of water miles deep and 200 - 300 km long accelerated downward by the force of gravity (or lifted upward by crustal motion) by three inches represents an massive amount of energy released into the ocean. The quake was able to generate a 1.5-foot tsunami on the Hawaiian island of Oahu 2,700 miles away, and a 0.6-foot tsunami on the Oregon coast, over 5,000 miles away.

Portlight.org is considering adopting an American Samoa family to help out in the wake of this huge disaster. They would like some feedback from their contributors on whether to go ahead with this idea, so stop by the Portlight.org blog to join the discussion.

Typhoon Ketsana
Typhoon Ketsana has finally dissipated, but not before bringing record flooding to Vietnam, two days after creating recording flooding and chaos in the capital of the Philippines, Manila. Ketsana made landfall Tuesday morning in Vietnam between Hue and Da Nang as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds. The storm dumped up to 20 inches of rain on Vietnam, according to satellite estimates. Some rivers in central Vietnam rose above the record flood heights recorded in an epic 1964 flood. In all, Ketsana has been responsible for 41 deaths in Vietnam and 11 in neighboring Cambodia, with many more missing. At least 350,000 people are homeless in Vietnam, joining the 380,000 left homeless in the Philippines from the storm.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS satellite image of Ketsana approaching Vietnam on Tuesday, September 28, 2009. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

The death toll in the Philippines from Ketsana has stabilized at 246, with another 38 missing. Residents of the islands need to keep a wary eye on Typhoon Parma, which is expected to intensify into a major typhoon and brush the northern Philippine island of Luzon on Saturday and Sunday.

Quietest September in the Atlantic since 1997
Well, it's the end of September, and what is traditionally the busiest month in the Atlantic was unusually quiet. We had only two named storms this September, the first time since 1997 we've had less than three September named storms. There were only 6.75 days in September with a named storm, which ranks as the 4th fewest September named storm days since 1950 (only 1962, 1970, and 1994 had fewer). The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index for September ranked as the 6th lowest since 1950. The quiet period is likely to continue for at least another week, as there are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the next seven days. I'll post my first-half-of-October outlook for the Atlantic tomorrow.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

PAGASA naming list for the remaining 2009 season
===============================================

Pepeng (Current)
Quedan
Ramil
Santi
Tino
Urduja
Vinta
Wilma
Yolanda
Quoting Hurricane009:
Typhoon Parma is almost positive to be a Cat. 5 at 8 pm




The JTWC runs on a different schedule than the NHC. lol
I see nobody thinks that this season is over, so let me modify my comment. Who thinks that we will NOT get past the I storm
Quoting Hurricane009:
who thinks that this season has officially ended????


we went over this earlier haha some spicy debate with tacoman
HGW - you saying I'm weird???

Just kidding. You are right, that would have been quite odd.
506. 789
Quoting Hurricane009:
who thinks that this season has officially ended????
everyone nov.30 2009
Quoting Magicchaos:


I actually saw it edited before your post was made.

nope the time doesn't change u edit it but on the first try he didn't post parma in () so i did that to remind
Updates from JTWC are at 5AM,11AM,5PM,11PM

They can sometimes be an hour early on them.
Quoting btwntx08:

nope the time doesn't change u edit it but on the first try he didn't post parma in () so i did that to remind


want a cookie or what?
Updated.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2009 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 11:50:05 N Lon : 131:14:32 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 920.4mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.4 6.2 7.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : 3.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -10.9C Cloud Region Temp : -80.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.7T/12hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
10 mins until we see what Dvorak Intensity JMA gives Parma...
Quoting tornadodude:


want a cookie or what?

haha no lol
Quoting btwntx08:

haha no lol


alrighty then haha
516. xcool



uspln.com
Quoting Hurricane009:
I see nobody thinks that this season is over, so let me modify my comment. Who thinks that we will NOT get past the I storm


I'd say "I" will be the last but I'm concerned about subtropical development.
Japan Meteorological Agency
3:00 AM JST October 1 2009
========================

TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER KETSANA [1002 HPA] AT 16N 105E ALMOST STATIONARY.


Still stationary and down to 25 knots (10 min avg)


Taiwan looks like they will take a direct hit from a CAT 4-5 Typhoon ... In the Philippines they are going to get even more water ... :c(
521. JRRP
mmmm
I see Tropical Storm Grace coming up soon, possibly anyway
Quoting JRRP:
mmmm
Looks to be a good rotation with some stronger winds in areas.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

The eye looks like a carbon-copy of Wilma's!


Hurricane Wilma's pinhole eye.


I don't recall Wilma wobbling that much. Seems to be getting ready for a eyewall replacement cycle from some of the other imagery. IMHAO
Quoting btwntx08:

he modified his after he saw mine lol


I modified before I saw your quote, but not in time. To set the record completely straight.
Quoting JRRP:
mmmm
Where do you go to get your pictures???
Quoting Hurricane009:
Where do you go to get your pictures???


space
---
Quoting tornadodude:


space
haha....very funny
Quoting Dakster:


I modified before I saw your quote, but not in time. To set the record completely straight.

actually maybe u by a few sec
Quoting Hurricane009:
Where do you go to get your pictures???


The Internet.
Updated.

Quoting Dakster:


The Internet.
nah.....really??
Quoting Hurricane009:
nah.....really??


I know, I know, you never expected that response. BTW, Google has great picture resources and links to active and current weather models and photos.
Wow the Western Pacific is nuts!

Western Pacific Water Vapour
537. JRRP
Quoting Hurricane009:
Where do you go to get your pictures???

Link?
melor

18w
-
PAGASA can scare people at times..
--- post deleted --
Quoting btwntx08:
melor

18w

Melor needs to be watched as well. The storm has a pretty good structure and is in a similar environment as Parma.

18W, well, has been eaten by Parma...
The recent 85GHz pass only got half of Melor, but it does appear that a rather potent eyewall is in the works...

547. JLPR
Quoting JRRP:
mmmm


the high resolution of that


big ummm
that is a strengthening elongated area of low pressure

but the convection is to the south of it
Typhoon Parma

I'd save this image.
WTPQ34 PGUM 302102
TCPPQ4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
800 AM CHST THU OCT 1 2009

A TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

RESIDENTS OF GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
550. xcool




Quoting 1900hurricane:

Melor needs to be watched as well. The storm has a pretty good structure and is in a similar environment as Parma.

18W, well, has been eaten by Parma...


Has Rota, Saipan, and Tinian under a Typhoon Watch and Guam under a Tropical Storm Watch.

EDIT: Hades beat me to it.
552. xcool
UPDATE BY:Jim Williams... The tropics are quiet at this time but there is a wave east of the Windward Islands and one in the east Atlantic that could become an invest down the road. These will need to be watched as some models show low pressure areas making it across to the western basin by next week.
Is the season over in the Atlantic? the official end is November 30th. We are up to six named storms ,so going back to 1900 only seven hurricane seasons of six or more named storms had the last named storm form before October 1st. Anotherwords only 6.48% of all seasons did not have an October 1st or later storm,so keep your eyes open .go to http://hurricanecity.com/
xcool - if that is correct and right now I have no reason to doubt you, it would stand to reason that we should at least keep an eye on the tropics. Not both eyes as we had to in 2004/5, but at least a watchful one.
I think the area around 13N/49W deserves a yellow circle
555. xcool
Dakster go to http://hurricanecity.com/
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think the area around 13N/49W deserves a yellow circle
Yesterday the convection was all over the place but now it seems to be more concentrated. What do you think about McKeeva's budget ?
Quoting xcool:
Dakster go to http://hurricanecity.com/


Its on the web page as you posted.
558. xcool
stormpetrol i agree
hmm either Japan Meteorologist are tired or they are very busy to release the new TCNA (which tells the current location of cyclone and the Dvorak Intensity)
560. xcool
Dakster kooling!
Parma is nasty and going to get worse.
Let's just hope they're evacuating and
preparations are being made for evacuees.
562. JLPR
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think the area around 13N/49W deserves a yellow circle


yep it does
it is now an elongated area of low pressure so a yellow circle is in order, plus it is closing in on the islands
JLPR - Maybe at the 2am or 8am if it holds.
** WTPQ20 BABJ 010000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY PARMA 0917 (0917) INITIAL TIME 010000 UTC
00HR 11.8N 131.2E 950HPA 45M/S (95 knots)
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 120KM
P12HR WNW 20KM/H
P+24HR 14.4N 127.8E 935HPA 52M/S (105 kts)
P+48HR 16.5N 125.5E 930HPA 55M/S (110 kts)
P+72HR 18.2N 123.8E 920HPA 55M/S (110 kts)
P+96HR 19.9N 122.8E 930HPA 52M/S= (105 kts)

China Meteorological Administration

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
** WTPQ20 BABJ 010000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY PARMA 0917 (0917) INITIAL TIME 010000 UTC
00HR 11.8N 131.2E 950HPA 45M/S (95 knots)
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 120KM
P12HR WNW 20KM/H
P+24HR 14.4N 127.8E 935HPA 52M/S (105 kts)
P+48HR 16.5N 125.5E 930HPA 55M/S (110 kts)
P+72HR 18.2N 123.8E 920HPA 55M/S (110 kts)
P+96HR 19.9N 122.8E 930HPA 52M/S= (105 kts)

China Meteorological Administration


Are they in 10-minute sustained?
I highly doubt this will be an invest or a "yellow circle" by 8:00 a.m.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Yesterday the convection was all over the place but now it seems to be more concentrated. What do you think about McKeeva's budget ?

yep much more concentrated, I don't trust McKeeva, never did, I heard a little about it on the rooster talk show this morning but I never listened to it, I don't trust any of them anymore quite frankly , but I always thought Mr. Tibbetts was the lesser of 2 evils, " hate to put it so frankly but thats just the way I am & the way I see it, One thing for certain our lovely Islands have literally gone to the dogs.
GWPB - Remember, yellow does mean squat. 1 - 30% chance... No harm, no foul. Even red is a little ambigous since the low end is 50%.
China Meteorological Administration is 2 min sustained wind average
I know...I'm just saying staus quo by 8:00 a.m. tomorrow morning.
and even that don't seem to be right..
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I know...I'm just saying staus quo by 8:00 a.m. tomorrow morning.


No problem. It doesn't affect me either way. Status quo is perfectly ok with me.

Anyways, goodnight all. See you tomorrow.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
China Meteorological Administration is 2 min sustained wind average

That's unusual... how do they generally compare to 1 min sustained?
Parma looks stronger than a Category 3-equivalent as it is currently is...

Pretty RGB image of Parma.

I really hope it misses a landfall at the Philipines as both the JMA and JTWC are forecasting it to past very close to Luzon and they've taken a beating from Ketsana.
Like the India Meteorological Department the Dvorak conversion is in my blog
lovely cool here in cent fla

no rain
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Parma appears to be moving south of the forecast points, more in Ketsana/Ordoy's footsteps towards the Philippines...

Link

Oh man. I hope not, My family and friends couldn't handle another storm
JMA upgrades to Category 5 intense typhoon Parma
583. jipmg
Quoting Chicklit:
lovely cool here in cent fla

no rain


I love how RANDOM cloud develope over the gulf, and move over Southern florida basically keeping us from dropping in temperature..

Anyhow, that system in the pacific is looking extreemly dangerous.
584. JLPR
Quoting Dakster:
JLPR - Maybe at the 2am or 8am if it holds.


once it gets closer to the islands, because of proximity to land it should get a circle
unless it remains convectionless like it is right now, then it wouldn't need a circle xD
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Like the India Meteorological Department the Dvorak conversion is in my blog

Thanks!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TYPHOON PARMA (T0917)
9:00 AM JST October 1 2009
================================

Subject: Category Five Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Parma (920 hPa) located at 11.8N 131.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west-northwest at 14 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Storm-Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
==================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 14.3N 127.6E - 115 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.7N 125.4E - 115 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)
72 HRS: 18.8N 123.8E - 105 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)
Quoting stormpetrol:

yep much more concentrated, I don't trust McKeeva, never did, I heard a little about it on the rooster talk show this morning but I never listened to it, I don't trust any of them anymore quite frankly , but I always thought Mr. Tibbetts was the lesser of 2 evils, " hate to put it so frankly but thats just the way I am & the way I see it, One thing for certain our lovely Islands have literally gone to the dogs.
McKeeva has sold out Cayman. I am sure you know to who without naming names. Back to the weather, I think we might have to keep a close eye on 48W.

Super Typhoon Gay


Anyone else see the similarities?
They released the TCR for Ana... They say that it was a Tropical Storm before it degenerated and regenerated, days before they named it... check it out.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Super Typhoon Gay


Anyone else see the similarities?

I was thinking the same thing, but I pulled Wilma for comparison instead because I though everyone would latch onto the parallel better. But yes, I do believe that 1992's version of Super Typhoon Gay is an even better parallel than even Wilma for Typhoon Parma. It is worth noting that 1992's Gay is one of the storms that gave Tip a run for his money. Intensity estimates topped out at 165 kts and 872 mbs, 2 mbs short of Tip's recorded 870 mbs.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TYPHOON MELOR (T0918)
0:00 AM JST October 1 2009
================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon Near Truks(Chuuk)

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Melor (975 hPa) located at 13.6N 153.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving north-northwest at 6 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm-Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
140 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 14.1N 151.0E - 75 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 15.0N 148.2E - 85 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 16.7N 143.3E - 85 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)

--
Upgraded to "category 3: Strong Typhoon" stage
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TYPHOON PARMA (T0917)
9:00 AM JST October 1 2009
================================

Subject: Category Five Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Parma (920 hPa) located at 11.8N 131.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west-northwest at 14 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Storm-Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
==================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 14.3N 127.6E - 115 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.7N 125.4E - 115 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)
72 HRS: 18.8N 123.8E - 105 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)

Now THAT looks like a more believable intensity.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TYPHOON PARMA (T0917)
9:00 AM JST October 1 2009
================================

Subject: Category Five Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Parma (920 hPa) located at 11.8N 131.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west-northwest at 14 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Storm-Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
==================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 14.3N 127.6E - 115 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.7N 125.4E - 115 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)
72 HRS: 18.8N 123.8E - 105 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)



so do we have are 2nd cat 5???
594. JLPR
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I was thinking the same thing, but I pulled Wilma for comparison instead because I though everyone would latch onto the parallel better. But yes, I do believe that 1992's version of Super Typhoon Gay is an even better parallel than even Wilma for Typhoon Parma. It is worth noting that 1992's Gay is one of the storms that gave Tip a run for his money. Intensity estimates topped out at 165 kts and 872 mbs, 2 mbs short of Tip's recorded 870 mbs.


yep Wilma looked very similar
Taz yes

hurricane1900 ya it sure does
Texas could be in store for a heavy rain event this weekend. NWS has issued a special weather statement.

Widespread areas of Central/South/East Texas are expected to see 2 to 5 inches of rain with some areas getting 10 inches.
i wonder if Melor will be come are 3dr cat 5
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I was thinking the same thing, but I pulled Wilma for comparison instead because I though everyone would latch onto the parallel better. But yes, I do believe that 1992's version of Super Typhoon Gay is an even better parallel than even Wilma for Typhoon Parma. It is worth noting that 1992's Gay is one of the storms that gave Tip a run for his money. Intensity estimates topped out at 165 kts and 872 mbs, 2 mbs short of Tip's recorded 870 mbs.

some people even say that Tip had a lower dovark intensity rating so logically it would have a higher pressure.
Anyway the small eye and lob-lopsidedness tiped me off on the similarities.
the snow is beginning to fly
Quoting all4hurricanes:

some people even say that Tip had a lower dovark intensity rating so logically it would have a higher pressure.
Anyway the small eye and lob-lopsidedness tiped me off on the similarities.

However, unlike Gay, Tip's pressure measurement was direct, which will overrule any satellite estimate andy day. I have noted that there have been several tropical cyclones with higher sat estimated intensities than Tip's sat intensity, and even did a blog on the topic several years ago, but since Tip's measurement was direct, it is the one that will stand.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Taz yes

hurricane1900 ya it sure does

Hi Hades.
Is the JTWC advisory for Parma issued? Because although it's "Very Intense" Typhoon Parma, it is not a Category 5 in the SSHS.
Bobby ya I know the scales are different.. I expect it to be 140 knot from the JTWC later Thursday though.
604. xcool
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/


Tonight at 9:00 pm ET, it's HurricaneTrack News/Talk. Tonight we talk with Dr. Jack Beven, Senior Hurricane Specialist, National Hurricane Center. The live chat box is running as well for questions and comments throughout the program.
Super Typhoon Parma from JTWC:
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 11.8N 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

150mph
Are there any publicly available models for W Pac storms?
145 knots by Friday x.x
Why you may never know the truth about global warming - $50 #amazon gift card up for grabs - Personal Hurricane Center- http://bit.ly/aokhH
Quoting Tazmanian:
i wonder if Melor will be come are 3dr cat 5

It definately is an interesting concept. In fact, just the concept of two strong storms in close proximity (Parma and Melor) reminded me of Super Typhoon's Ivan and Joan from the monstrous WPac year of 1997, which was driven by the 1997 El Nino. The two storms developed in close proximity to each other and both became Category 5 Super Typhoons at about the same time! In fact, JTWC placed both of their central pressure estimates at 872 mbs, tied for second most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded!



A strange parallel between Ivan and Parma is that they were both expected to curve away from the Philippines as fairly strong Typhoons, but not Super Typhoons. However, due to Ivan's proximity to Joan, the two Super Typhoons entered into the Fujiwara Effect, which drove Ivan to make landfall in north Luzon of the Philippines.

If anyone wants to check out what a Strong El Nino can really do to the WPac, I strongly encourage y'all to check out the 1997 WPac Season. With 29 named storms, 24 Typhoons, 11 Super Typhoons, and 9 Category 5 Super Typhoons, that season truly was a monster.
Quoting Seastep:
Are there any publicly available models for W Pac storms?

MIT Models
Quoting 1900hurricane:

It definately is an interesting concept. In fact, just the concept of two strong storms in close proximity (Parma and Melor) reminded me of Super Typhoon's Ivan and Joan from the monstrous WPac year of 1997, which was driven by the 1997 El Nino. The two storms developed in close proximity to each other and both became Category 5 Super Typhoons at about the same time! In fact, JTWC placed both of their central pressure estimates at 872 mbs, tied for second most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded!



A strange parallel between Ivan and Parma is that they were both expected to curve away from the Philippines as fairly strong Typhoons, but not Super Typhoons. However, due to Ivan's proximity to Joan, the two Super Typhoons entered into the Fujiwara Effect, which drove Ivan to make landfall in north Luzon of the Philippines.

If anyone wants to check out what a Strong El Nino can really do to the WPac, I strongly encourage y'all to check out the 1997 WPac Season. With 29 named storms, 24 Typhoons, 11 Super Typhoons, and 9 Category 5 Super Typhoons, that season truly was a monster.


1900, I wrote about that exact scenario not too long ago on my site. Ivan and Joan were ctually quite amazing in that both systems followed the same intensity patterns and while there was clearly evidence of the fujiwara effect, neither took control of the other. That was very rare. I'm extremely anxious to see if Melor and Parma do the same.
FKPQ31 RJTD 010000
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20091001/0000Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: PARMA
NR: 10
PSN: N1150 E13105
MOV: WNW 14KT
C: 920HPA
MAX WIND: 105KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 01/0600Z N1220 E13005
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 110KT


---
next full advisory may be 110 knots (10 min avg)
Melor looks like he doesn't want to be left in the dust by Parma intensity -wise...

heh

Parma is ham and chicken livers with mushrooms
Melor is a jasmine flower
Parma sounds a little gross
Wow what a storm Parma is ...
Quoting 1900hurricane:

MIT Models


Cheers.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2009 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 12:03:04 N Lon : 130:45:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 920.3mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.4 6.1 6.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.7mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 7 km

Center Temp : -10.2C Cloud Region Temp : -75.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.7T/12hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Quoting somemalayguy117:
Parma looks stronger than a Category 3-equivalent as it is currently is...


I really hope it misses a landfall at the Philipines as both the JMA and JTWC are forecasting it to past very close to Luzon and they've taken a beating from Ketsana.


Not that the south of Taiwan needs a beating either after the disaster that was Morakot.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

It definately is an interesting concept. In fact, just the concept of two strong storms in close proximity (Parma and Melor) reminded me of Super Typhoon's Ivan and Joan from the monstrous WPac year of 1997, which was driven by the 1997 El Nino. The two storms developed in close proximity to each other and both became Category 5 Super Typhoons at about the same time! In fact, JTWC placed both of their central pressure estimates at 872 mbs, tied for second most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded!



A strange parallel between Ivan and Parma is that they were both expected to curve away from the Philippines as fairly strong Typhoons, but not Super Typhoons. However, due to Ivan's proximity to Joan, the two Super Typhoons entered into the Fujiwara Effect, which drove Ivan to make landfall in north Luzon of the Philippines.

If anyone wants to check out what a Strong El Nino can really do to the WPac, I strongly encourage y'all to check out the 1997 WPac Season. With 29 named storms, 24 Typhoons, 11 Super Typhoons, and 9 Category 5 Super Typhoons, that season truly was a monster.


Actually, each one is probably sucking up the outflow of the other. or something. this is why im not in meteorology.. you think?
Wow...Super Typhoons, Tsunamis and Earthquakes...what the heck is going on???
All this havoc going on....and here we are on this side of the Planet almost ready to call an end to the season.
I'm hoping the best for Taiwan and the Philippines. I'd be horrible if there would be anything worse then Typhoon Ketsana or Typhoon Morakot.



Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
heh

Parma is ham and chicken livers with mushrooms
Melor is a jasmine flower


LOL - Parma pizza sounds good.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Wow...Super Typhoons, Tsunamis and Earthquakes...what the heck is going on???


No kidding ... They should call it Global Scouring
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Wow...Super Typhoons, Tsunamis and Earthquakes...what the heck is going on???

Let's just call this a bad week for the Pacific.
629. JRRP
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Wow...Super Typhoons, Tsunamis and Earthquakes...what the heck is going on???

the end of the world
:p
WDPN33 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CON-
VECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED EYEWALL. A 300848Z SSMIS
PASS SHOWS A DEEP CONVECTIVE RING IS LOCATED AROUND A SMALL EYE, WITH
ADDITIONAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN POR-
TION OF TY 19W FROM THE WEST. PARMA IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS PROVIDING AMPLE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO AMPLIFY THE CURRENT INTENSITY INCREASES SEEN OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STEER ALONG THE SOUTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. TRACK SPEED HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF TD 18W CONTINUE TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF PARMA AND IS CLOSING THE DISTANCE
BETWEEN THE TWO.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
WITH A SINGLE TRACK SOLUTION THROUGH TAU 72. TY 19W WILL TRACK NORTH-
WESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES AS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE REMNANTS OF TD 18W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TOWARDS TY 19W AND BE ABSORBED BY TAU 48, BUT WILL NOT HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE INTENSITY OR TRACK FOR TY 19W. FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION WILL ALLOW FOR TY 19W
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72.
C. MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, WITH AVNI
AND GFNI SHOWING A TRACK AGROSS NORTHERN LUZON. NGPI AND EGR2 SHOW A
MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS ECMWF SHOWS TY 19W
TRACKING TOWARDS TAIWAN. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS A CLOSER
APPROACH TO LUZON WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWING AS IT MOVES INTO THE LUZON
STRAIT AND STARTS TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AFTER TAU 72, AND THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD A WESTWARD EXTENSION OVER EASTERN CHINA AND TAIWAN.
TY 19W WILL SLOW AROUND TAU 72 AS IT DRIVES INTO THE EXTENSION OF THE
RIDGE.//
NNNN


Quoting JRRP:

the end of the world
:p


maybe The Rupture :O
Quoting tornadodude:


maybe The Rupture :O


I hope you mean the Rapture....reading some of these posts have already made me rupture a few things :)
Quoting winter123:


Actually, each one is probably sucking up the outflow of the other. or something. this is why im not in meteorology.. you think?

I can see where your theory is coming from, but that wouldn't be possible because each Typhoon has an upper level anticyclone, which fans each individual tropical cyclone.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I hope you mean the Rapture....reading some of these posts have already made me rupture a few things :)


it was a pun, with all the earthquakes, wouldnt it be The Rupture? ;)
Quoting JRRP:

the end of the world
:p


Always dramatic...that's not til 2012.
I'll give you a 5 on that Matt :)
638. xcool
buzzz
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I'll give you a 5 on that Matt :)


haha thanks (:

(do I get a cookie?)
Actually Matt...nothing to joke about. A lot of people have died and are suffering.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Actually Matt...nothing to joke about. A lot of people have died and are suffering.


definitely, my prayers have gone out to them, also I am currently trying to think of ways to raise money for Portlight at Purdue
Extremely powerful cyclone dont see those tiny pin-hole eyes to often. NRL has intensity at 160kts in a few days. That may be generous.
Props to you! I know the economy is bad and a lot of us are going through bad times. Just $5 or $10 would help out a lot.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Props to you! I know the economy is bad and a lot of us are going through bad times. Just $5 or $10 would help out a lot.


that is true, I will see what I can do
647. JRRP
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Always dramatic...that's not til 2012.

well well... it is the beginning
Quoting hurricane23:
Extremely powerful cyclone dont see those tiny pin-hole eyes to often. NRL has intensity at 160kts in a few days. That may be generous.

160 kts? I've failed to see that forecast...
Quoting tornadodude:
Another earthquake?!?!?



yup
please take a moment to check out the Portlight featured Wunderblog...and join in the discussion as we noodle some things out...Thanks!
Thanks For The Update Dr. Masters. Im interested about the 2 areas of convection in the Eastern Atlantic. We May Have Some Action in 7-10 days.
- Bryant
TarHeelWeather.com
aftershocks

1. M8.0 2009/09/29 17:48:11 that started the event
2. M7.6 2009/09/30 10:16:10 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
3. M6.8 2009/10/01 01:52:30 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
Quoting DaaiTouLaam:Wind Shear for Western Pacific

Neat how you click on the image and the image comes up.
Where are you, DaaiToulaam?
I am no expert on earthquakes. Isn’t a 6.8 just a blip on the Richter scale? No tsunami threat?
Reposting this so it carries onto the next page.
Quoting presslord:
please take a moment to check out the Portlight featured Wunderblog...and join in the discussion as we noodle some things out...Thanks!
Quoting 1900hurricane:

160 kts? I've failed to see that forecast...


Yea just updated to 145kts peak intensity with gust to 175kts in a few days which again might be generous considering how tightly wound up this is. Long day at work
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I am no expert on earthquakes. Isn’t a 6.8 just a blip on the Richter scale? No tsunami threat?


It shouldnt do much there, but Ive only experienced a 5.2, pretty intense though when it is 5 o'clock in the morning and you get rolled out of bed :P
Quoting Chicklit:
Neat how you click on the image and the image comes up.
Where are you, DaaiToulaam?


Hong Kong.

Keeping an eye on the steering flow for Parma as Ketsana exits stage left
From JTWC

SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W (PARMA) HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND HAS DEVELOPED A PIN-HOLE EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE WELL-DEFINED EYE.THE SYSTEM IS EXHIBITING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH. CURRENT INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I am no expert on earthquakes. Isn’t a 6.8 just a blip on the Richter scale? No tsunami threat?


Northridge quake of '94 was 6.7
San Francisco quake of '89 was 6.9
661. P451
Hong Kong close enough.
Phillipines still contemplating evacuation according to this article from 1 hour ago.
Link
Tropical Depression Ketsana (1004 hPa)

Quoting DaaiTouLaam:


Northridge quake of '94 was 6.7
San Francisco quake of '89 was 6.9


Again no expert...but those quakes were land based and not in the ocean. Doesn't that make a difference?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I am no expert on earthquakes. Isn’t a 6.8 just a blip on the Richter scale? No tsunami threat?


Alot depends on how deep the quake is and how much land moves in the process! If any portion of the sea floor rises or fall from a sea bottom fracture the potential is there. Large quakes usually move alot of territory.
668. xcool
Mother Nature so mad right now !imo;
I'm adding a lot of links tonight. Thanks.
Looks like WPac getting everything EAtl isn't. Wow. Nature has a way of balancing herself that is pretty darned dramatic.
Quakes with magnitude of 7 or greater is the limit where the agencies issue tsunami advisories or warnings if necessary.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Alot depends on how deep the quake is and how much land moves in the process! If any portion of the sea floor rises or fall from a sea bottom fracture the potential is there. Large quakes usually move alot of territory.

Yeah, Dr. Masters mentioned a 3 inch displacement in his blog this a.m. that caused a shift of megatons of water in the Samoa tsunami.
674. JRRP
DATE..................................LAT LON... MAG DEPTH km... REGION
01-OCT-2009 01:52:30 -2.5.. 101.6.. 6.8..... 24.9.... SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
Quoting StormW:
Presslord,
You around?


Over here!
Parma just exploded to a Super Typhoon...

Parma and Melor are connected.
Classic pinhole for Parma. One fears the Phillipines may be about to get whacked again.
Quoting Chicklit:
Hong Kong close enough.
Phillipines still contemplating evacuation according to this article from 1 hour ago.
Link


I wouldn't want to be sitting in a mountain valley in northern Luzon right now.
Quoting somemalayguy117:
Parma just exploded to a Super Typhoon...

everyone knows lol
heh I just noticed that was Indonesia and not Sam
oa
My thoughts on the Atlantic

1. AOI between 10N and 15N, 45W and 50W has a LOW(10-25%) chance of tropical development in the next 72 hours.

2. AOI near 40N 30W has a VERY LOW(<10%)chance of tropical development for the next 72 hours.
If you use Firefox, there is an add-on called eQuake alert. It can drive you crazy sometimes, but interesting.
684. xcool
:)
StormW...I've been cautioned by several people I respect to temper my attitude toward FEMA...therefore...I don't have much to say...but...transport is the missing link right now vis a vis Samoa...will WU mail you my ph #...if you have any ideas call me in the AM...Thanks!
Parma
Earth Observatory.
Quoting btwntx08:

everyone knows lol


Why is it funny that it is a super typhoon that is going to make landfall?
I'm out for the night; I have alot of Calculus to study. But before I leave, I'll leave y'all with a Cloudsat that just missed Parma's eyewall.

690. JRRP
15mph ? and is TD?
what the coo is that ??

possible low level circulation on that T-wave
might be a player down the road if the caribbean can find some better shear condition
what you guys think
Link
Quoting DaaiTouLaam:


I wouldn't want to be sitting in a mountain valley in northern Luzon right now.


LuzonWikipedia

"Parma%u2019s center will be at its closest to Luzon, where Ketsana wrought its destruction, by late tomorrow or early on Oct. 3, according to the Navy forecast. Winds were gusting to 231 kph and waves near the eye are as high as 7.6 meters (25 feet), the typhoon center said."


Bloomberg.com
693. xcool



Quoting JRRP:
15mph ? and is TD?
what the co%uFFFDo is that ??


According to JTWC, that TD has dissipated a day or so ago, and is close to being absorbed by Parma.
Parma is literally spinning in soup ...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Why is it funny that it is a super typhoon that is going to make landfall?

am not saying its funny but everyone is worrying its possible impact on the philipines
Press - mail
Quoting Snowfire:
Classic pinhole for Parma. One fears the Phillipines may be about to get whacked again.

I have family in Philippines, they are not looking forward to Parma or Melor which is heading in the same general direction
Just in utter shock just watching the continued death and destruction that Mother Nature is bringing to the Oceania region over the past few days and in the days to come. Never has there been a time I can remember where there were so many varied natural disasters occurring in one isolated region in the world. I'm really praying for the people in that region since they have been getting punished by Mother Nature. And to anyone who may reside or have interests in that region, I send my best wishes and hope that things improve and that recovery will be rather swift.
This is a news report on the latest earthquake.
Very serious.
Link
Quoting btwntx08:

am not saying its funny but everyone is worrying its possible impact on the philipines


why wouldnt we worry about it hitting the Philippines???

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


See comments section for the Comedy
Quoting JRRP:
15mph ? and is TD?
what the co�o is that ??



18W is gone it got in eat in up
Quoting btwntx08:

am not saying its funny but everyone is worrying its possible impact on the Philippines

I can not imagine the impact Parma might have on central/northern Luzon, I no the areas well and in central Luzon its practically flat like a pancake and are still flooded from the Ketsana, Northern Luzon is very mountainous where a lot of illegal logging has taken place. My wife is very worried about her family there. Please remember all the people in your prays.
Northern Luzon


Central Luzon

2009 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

East Pacific
91E.INVEST

Central Pacific

West Pacific
20W.MELOR
19W.PARMA

Indian Ocean
90B.INVEST
Quoting JRRP:
15mph ? and is TD?
what the co�o is that ??
I think 18W is absorbed by Melor.
Taiwan will take a major beating too
Quoting somemalayguy117:
I think 18W is absorbed by Melor.

18w was absorbed by Parma
Quoting AussieStorm:

I can not imagine the impact Parma might have on central/northern Luzon, I no the areas well and in central Luzon its practically flat like a pancake, Northern Luzon is very mountainous where a lot of illegal logging has taken place. My wife is very worried about her family there. Please remember all the people in your prays.


Yeah, the topography of the Philippines is just the prototypical recipe for disaster when it comes to tropical cyclones. Moreso than most other places, they are especially susceptible to flooding and mud/land slides since the angle most tropical cyclones take into the Philippines, the barren mountainous terrain in the northern islands and the southern islands will not only act as a funnel for winds in the central islands, but it will also serve to produce increased runoff and dangerous landslides in both directions.
Quoting Chicklit:
This is a news report on the latest earthquake.
Very serious.
Link


I feel like I want to scream at our media and geologists. I keep hearing there was no warning but over there their warnings are clearer than ours.
Quoting Melagoo:
Taiwan will take a major beating too


I'm really crossing my fingers that the ridge builds back in before it hits the areas devastated by Morakot.
Gotta feel for those folks in W-Pac...
Just can't win.....I have friends in the Philippines and family in Taiwan, I think they've had enough for this season....
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just in utter shock just watching the continued death and destruction that Mother Nature is bringing to the Oceania region over the past few days and in the days to come. Never has there been a time I can remember where there were so many varied natural disasters occurring in one isolated region in the world. I'm really praying for the people in that region since they have been getting punished by Mother Nature. And to anyone who may reside or have interests in that region, I send my best wishes and hope that things improve and that recovery will be rather swift.
there is no punishment. they happen to live in the area where earthquakes happen and like anywhere else where there is very warm waters, bad storms. it is unfortunate and sad, but they have not done anything wrong. it is part of life and we need to help them to recover and comfort them for there lost ones.
Here's the Wunderground weather page for Taiwan.
TaiPeiAirport

One model?
Quoting PcolaDan:
If you use Firefox, there is an add-on called eQuake alert. It can drive you crazy sometimes, but interesting.


that is actually really neat, thanks
Don't remember it, but according to my father, we were out in the street in the eye of a typhoon in Taipei when I was a tot.

Yes, my mom was pissed from her account.
srq 69.8 nice
look like the feeder bands is going to hit the phillipines real soon. a lot of rain is in the feeder bands, so they will be hit hard by rain before the main storm hits them.
updated 8:45 a.m. PT, Thurs., March. 19, 2009
NUKU'ALOFA, Tonga - Scientists sailed Thursday to inspect an undersea volcano that has been erupting for days near Tonga — shooting smoke, steam and ash thousands of feet into the sky above the South Pacific ocean.

Authorities said Thursday the eruption does not pose any danger to islanders at this stage, and there have been no reports of fish or other animals being affected.

Spectacular columns are spewing out of the sea about 6 miles from the southwest coast off the main island of Tongatapu — an area where up to 36 undersea volcanoes are clustered, geologists said.

Trade winds continued to blow gas and steam away from the island Thursday.

No warnings yet
Tonga's police deputy commander Taniela Faletau said coastal villages close to the roiling ocean site were not yet at risk and that no warnings had been issued.

Police were waiting for a government team of officials and scientists to survey the area and report on their observations before taking any action.

Coastal residents said the steam and ash column first appeared on Monday morning, after a series of sharp earthquakes were felt in the capital, Nuku'alofa.

"This is not unusual for this area and we expect this to happen here at any time," said Keleti Mafi, Tonga's geological service head.

The underwater eruption was taking place near the low-lying twin volcanic islands of Hunga Tonga and Hunga Ha'apai, and within sight of the capital, Nuku'alofa.

Large amounts of pumice thrown up by the erupting volcano would likely clog beaches on the southern coast of nearby Fiji islands within a short time, Mafi said.

Tonga, a 170-island archipelago about halfway between Australia and Tahiti, is part of the Pacific "ring of fire" — an arc of earthquake and volcanic zones stretching from Chile in South America through Alaska and down through Vanuatu to Tonga.
Quoting mossyhead:
there is no punishment. they happen to live in the area where earthquakes happen and like anywhere else where there is very warm waters, bad storms. it is unfortunate and sad, but they have not done anything wrong. it is part of life and we need to help them to recover and comfort them for there lost ones.


I recognize the area they reside in, but the quick succession of all these disasters is just amazing in recent days.
Parma bottomed out at 150 mph - 926 mb according to the JTWC. No surprises there, that was a definite pin-hole eye there.

parma

okay, goodnight.
let's hope it curves out to sea.
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Sep 30, 10:54 pm EDT

Fair

51 °F
(11 °C)
Humidity: 64 %
Wind Speed: E 5 MPH
Barometer: 30.09" (1019.0 mb)
Dewpoint: 39 °F (4 °C)
Wind Chill: 50 °F (10 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
01-OCT-2009 02:20:34 -2.38 101.48 5.0 27.0 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
01-OCT-2009 01:52:30 -2.54 101.62 6.8 24.9 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
30-SEP-2009 10:38:54 -0.72 100.07 5.5 104.2 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
30-SEP-2009 10:16:10 -0.80 99.93 7.6 85.0 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
29-SEP-2009 02:04:08 -5.19 100.89 4.7 31.3 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATERA, INDONESIA
28-SEP-2009 00:26:23 -7.92 107.19 4.8 50.1 JAWA, INDONESIA
Quoting Chicklit:
Parma
Earth Observatory.


Wow, that's an incredible site! Thanks for sharing that...bookmarked it :-)
to cold for me
730. JRRP
694
thanks
Cloud-tops have warmed significantly over the past few hours.

Quoting Weather456:
Cloud-tops have warmed significantly over the past few hours.



EWRC?
733. xcool
St Margaret Mary School slidell la
Change Tracking Station
Temp
61.5°F .
Quoting tornadodude:


EWRC?


I don't think so. That does not entirely involve the CDO.
Quoting Weather456:


I don't think so. That does not entirely involve the CDO.


true, hmmm, cooler water? or just a cycle?
736. JLPR
nice circulation with this non tropical low

737. xcool


oh matt looking at snow ;)
Quoting xcool:


oh matt looking at snow ;)


I want it haha my parents saw some this morning at Lake Placid, Ny
Quoting tornadodude:


true, hmmm, cooler water? or just a cycle?


Probably a decline from dmax, but I'm surprise it affected such a powerful cyclone. It it could also be some slightly cooler waters but that remains relatively high.
Quoting JLPR:
nice circulation with this non tropical low



lol - I was about to post it.

Quoting Weather456:


Probably a decline from dmax, but I'm surprise it affected such a powerful cyclone. It it could also be some slightly cooler waters but that remains relatively high.


ah, alright, well I guess we will just have to wait and see what happens
742. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:


lol - I was about to post it.



XD
Quoting AussieStorm:

I can not imagine the impact Parma might have on central/northern Luzon, I no the areas well and in central Luzon its practically flat like a pancake and are still flooded from the Ketsana, Northern Luzon is very mountainous where a lot of illegal logging has taken place. My wife is very worried about her family there. Please remember all the people in your prays.
Northern Luzon


Central Luzon


my thoughts and prayers r with ur family there aussie hope they will make it ok :)
744. xcool
.How much snow ?
Quoting xcool:
.How much snow ?


no accumulation, but still, september??? well now it's october here
The 2009 Hurricane Season repaired the judgments about a typical hurricane season that the 2005 Hurricane Season damaged.
747. xcool
tornadodude ops my bad .
Quoting xcool:
tornadodude ops my bad .


oh it's fine, happy october to those in the eastern time zone
September 30 is the conventional end of the Cape Verde Hurricane Season, which started August 1. The entire MDR is basically cut-off at this point.

xcool hey
Quoting PcolaDan:
If you use Firefox, there is an add-on called eQuake alert. It can drive you crazy sometimes, but interesting.


Did you ever tell how your family members came out?
752. xcool
.oct 19 my birthday.Yeah I'm get old.!
753. xcool
heyyybtwntx08
Geeze...

755. xcool
oh wow Weather456
756. xcool



Quoting xcool:
heyyybtwntx08

watcha doin xcool :)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Here is my earthquake section on my website if this will help some....great up todate pic of the Redoubt Volcano also.....


ty.
760. xcool
chilling eatFastfood:
winter is takeing overe fast overe the USA in the mean time thursday tempser for N CA well be in the 80s but this will be vary short lived with other big ccool down come this could be vary well be are last 80s this year for N CA
Quoting Tazmanian:
winter is takeing overe fast overe the USA in the mean time thursday tempser for N CA well be in the 80s but this will be vary short lived with other big ccool down come this could be vary well be are last 80s this year for N CA


sounds good to me, I am definitely craving some snow
763. xcool
Link



emergency and disater
Quoting xcool:
chilling eatFastfood:

cool :) r u ready for cold weather or no
767. xcool
nono .

Temp
59.°F
Under a widespread freeze warning here in MI.. *chokes at the sight of blue on that radar in the NE*
769. xcool
bye all work at 500am
Quoting charlesimages:
Under a widespread freeze warning here in MI.. *chokes at the sight of blue on that radar in the NE*


where in MI?
Off the Jakarta Globe, Indonesian Newspaper

Indonesia Earthquake: Padang Mayor Pleads For Assistance
Padang’s mayor has desperately appealed for assistance on Indonesian radio station el-Shinta after a 7.6 magnitude quake devastated the West Sumatra city on Wednesday evening.

“We are overwhelmed with victims and ... lack of clean water, electricity and telecommunications,’’ Mayor Fauzi Bahar said. “We really need help. We call on people to come to Padang to evacuate bodies and help the injured.”

Hundreds of people were trapped under collapsed buildings in Padang alone, including a four-star hotel, he said. Other collapsed or seriously damaged buildings included hospitals, mosques, a school and a mall.

“I was studying math with my friends when suddenly a powerful earthquake destroyed everything around me,’’ an unidentified boy told the TVOne broadcaster. He escaped out of the top floor just as the three-story structure, used for after-school classes, crumpled.

TVOne footage showed heavy equipment breaking through layers of cement in search of more than 30 children it said were missing and feared dead.

Thousands were believed trapped throughout the province, said Rustam Pakaya, head of the Health Ministry’s crisis center.

Search and rescue teams were working in heavy rain when the second strong quake struck, causing widespread panic and badly damaging 30 houses in Jambi, another Sumatran town. It was not yet clear if there were injuries, said Jambi Mayor Hasfiah. Frantic parents were seen rushing to local schools in search of their children.

The shaking in Padang felled trees and crushed cars. A foot could be seen sticking out from one pile of rubble. At daybreak, residents used their bare hands to search for survivors, pulling at the wreckage and tossing it away piece by piece.

“People ran to high ground,’’ said Kasmiati, who lives on the coast near the quake’s epicenter. “I was outside, so I am safe, but my children at home were injured,’’ she said before her cell phone went dead.

The loss of telephone service deepened the worries of those outside the stricken area.

“I want to know what happened to my sister and her husband,’’ said Fitra Jaya, who owns a house in downtown Padang and was in Jakarta when the quake hit. “I tried to call my family there, but I could not reach anyone at all.’’

Hospitals struggled to treat the injured.

Indonesia’s government announced $10 million in emergency response aid and medical teams and military planes were being dispatched to set up field hospitals and distribute tents, medicine and food rations.

AP
Quoting tornadodude:


where in MI?
central & southern lower peninsula.. I am north of Grand Rapids, MI in Kent City, MI

Local map:



Click here for National WWA map

Cold air really pushing southward.. *Thanks the High Pressure from Canada*
Click Here you can see how far this cold air is sinking.. wow!

Quoting tornadodude:
Lake Effect already????


Really...Oh my. In Chi...I think we are getting rain, rain, rain until Sunday. THAT will just add insult to the cold here. I'm hoping not huge amounts. I say Columbus Day, first snow here??? Oct. 12.
Quoting charlesimages:
central & southern lower peninsula.. I am north of Grand Rapids, MI in Kent City, MI

Local map:



Click here for National WWA map

Cold air really pushing southward.. *Thanks the High Pressure from Canada*


ah ok, I live in West Lafayette Indiana.

Quoting juslivn:


Really...Oh my. In Chi...I think we are getting rain, rain, rain until Sunday. THAT will just add insult to the cold here. I'm hoping not huge amounts. I say Columbus Day, first snow here??? Oct. 12.


hmmm, maybe, I'd shoot more for the 19th for Chicago
Here's stormydee's earthquake blog..full of good links.
Quoting xcool:
bye all work at 500am

bye xcool
Quoting Melagoo:


a couple of dips and a ridge, looks interesting, sever weather threat potential in the southern plains
Child Abduction Emergency

TXC015-039-041-051-071-089-157-167-185-201-225-239-291-313-321-
339-373-407-455-471-473-477-481-010545-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
TEXAS DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1145 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

...AMBER ALERT...

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE TEXAS
DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THE HENDERSON POLICE DEPARTMENT IS SEARCHING FOR KESHAUN DANSBY,
BLACK, MALE, 3 YEARS OLD, DATE OF BIRTH JANUARY 9 2006, HEIGHT 3
FEET, WEIGHT 35 POUNDS, SHAVED HEAD, BROWN EYES AND WEARING A
TEAL BLUE SHIRT, BLUE JEANS, AND BLACK AIR JORDON TENNIS SHOES.

POLICE ARE LOOKING FOR VICTOR DANSBY, BLACK, MALE, 43 YEARS OLD,
DATE OF BIRTH MARCH 28 1966, HEIGHT 6 FEET, WEIGHT 240 POUNDS,
SHAVED HEAD, BROWN EYES AND WEARING A BROWN MUSCLE SHIRT, BLUE
JEANS, AND WHITE SHOES IN HIS ABDUCTION. THE SUSPECT MAY BE ARMED
WITH A HANDGUN.

LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS BELIEVE THE CHILD TO BE IN GRAVE OR IMMEDIATE
DANGER.

IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION REGARDING THIS ABDUCTION, CALL THE HENDERSON
POLICE DEPARTMENT.

NEWS MEDIA POINT OF CONTACT IS HENDERSON POLICE DEPARTMENT AT (903)
657-3512.

$$






Link
my blog i have some info on the wave east of the islands and of course my area weather
Recent update from the Jakarta Globe Newspaper

Indonesia Earthquake: 464 Confirmed Deaths, Thousands More Bodies Expected to Be Recovered

At least 464 people are confirmed to have died in a huge earthquake that struck Indonesia%u2019s Sumatra island, a social affairs
ministry official said Thursday.

"The number of people who died in West Sumatra is 464 and they are from six districts," the ministry official in charge of handling death toll data, Tugyo Bisri, told AFP.

The death toll is feared to run into the thousands after the 7.6 earthquake struck on Wednesday evening.

The powerful earthquake triggered landslides and trapped thousands of people under collapsed buildings %u2014 including two hospitals, an official said.

%u201CThe rescue personnel in the location estimated that so far at least 200 people have died,%u201D Disaster Management Agency spokesman Priyadi Kardono said in Jakarta.

But that number was likely to soar, officials said, as the first outside rescue teams from the Indonesian army and health ministry reached the city to reinforce overwhelmed police on the ground.

%u201CIt%u2019s difficult to confirm the death toll as communications have been cut off,%u201D Kardono said.

%u201CWe need heavy machinery to lift the rubble... we expect that to arrive at the location soon,%u201D he added.

The temblor started fires, severed roads and cut off power and communications to Padang, a coastal city of 900,000 on Sumatra island. Thousands fled in panic, fearing a tsunami.

In the sprawling low-lying city of Padang, the shaking was so intense that people crouched or sat on the street to avoid falling. Children screamed as an exodus of thousands tried to get away from the coast in cars and motorbikes, honking horns.

At least 500 buildings in Padang, the regional capital, collapsed or were badly damaged, said Disaster Management Agency spokesman Priyadi Kardono, adding that 200 bodies had been pulled from the rubble there.

The extent of damage in surrounding areas was still unclear due to poor communications, he said.

The shaking flattened buildings and felled trees in Padang, damaged mosques and hotels and crushed cars. A foot could be seen sticking out from one pile of rubble. At daybreak, residents used their bare hands to search for survivors, pulling at the wreckage and tossing it away piece by piece.

%u201CPeople ran to high ground. Houses and buildings were badly damaged,%u201D said Kasmiati, who lives on the coast near the quake%u2019s epicenter.

%u201CI was outside, so I am safe, but my children at home were injured,%u201D she said before her cell phone went dead.

The loss of telephone service deepened the worries of those outside the stricken area.

%u201CI want to know what happened to my sister and her husband,%u201D said Fitra Jaya, who owns a house in downtown Padang and was in Jakarta when the quake hit. %u201CI tried to call my family there, but I could not reach anyone at all.%u201D

Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari told MetroTV that two hospitals and a mall collapsed in Padang.

%u201CThis is a high-scale disaster,%u201D Supari said.

Hospitals struggled to treat the injured as their relatives hovered nearby.

Indonesia%u2019s government announced $10 million in emergency response aid and medical teams and military planes were being dispatched to set up field hospitals and distribute tents, medicine and food rations. Members of the Cabinet were preparing for the possibility of thousands of deaths.

Rustam Pakaya, head of the Health Ministry%u2019s crisis center, said Wednesday that thousands of people had been trapped under the collapsed houses. It was unclear how many people were still missing or trapped by Thursday morning.

Local television reported more than two dozen landslides. Some blocked roads, causing miles-long traffic jams of cars and trucks.

AP, AFP
Bordonaro- that is so devastating and incredible
Quoting Bordonaro:
Off the Jakarta Globe, Indonesian Newspaper

Indonesia Earthquake: Padang Mayor Pleads For Assistance
Padang’s mayor has desperately appealed for assistance on Indonesian radio station el-Shinta after a 7.6 magnitude quake devastated the West Sumatra city on Wednesday evening.

“We are overwhelmed with victims and ... lack of clean water, electricity and telecommunications,’’ Mayor Fauzi Bahar said. “We really need help. We call on people to come to Padang to evacuate bodies and help the injured.”

Hundreds of people were trapped under collapsed buildings in Padang alone, including a four-star hotel, he said. Other collapsed or seriously damaged buildings included hospitals, mosques, a school and a mall.

“I was studying math with my friends when suddenly a powerful earthquake destroyed everything around me,’’ an unidentified boy told the TVOne broadcaster. He escaped out of the top floor just as the three-story structure, used for after-school classes, crumpled.

TVOne footage showed heavy equipment breaking through layers of cement in search of more than 30 children it said were missing and feared dead.

Thousands were believed trapped throughout the province, said Rustam Pakaya, head of the Health Ministry’s crisis center.

Search and rescue teams were working in heavy rain when the second strong quake struck, causing widespread panic and badly damaging 30 houses in Jambi, another Sumatran town. It was not yet clear if there were injuries, said Jambi Mayor Hasfiah. Frantic parents were seen rushing to local schools in search of their children.

The shaking in Padang felled trees and crushed cars. A foot could be seen sticking out from one pile of rubble. At daybreak, residents used their bare hands to search for survivors, pulling at the wreckage and tossing it away piece by piece.

“People ran to high ground,’’ said Kasmiati, who lives on the coast near the quake’s epicenter. “I was outside, so I am safe, but my children at home were injured,’’ she said before her cell phone went dead.

The loss of telephone service deepened the worries of those outside the stricken area.

“I want to know what happened to my sister and her husband,’’ said Fitra Jaya, who owns a house in downtown Padang and was in Jakarta when the quake hit. “I tried to call my family there, but I could not reach anyone at all.’’

Hospitals struggled to treat the injured.

Indonesia’s government announced $10 million in emergency response aid and medical teams and military planes were being dispatched to set up field hospitals and distribute tents, medicine and food rations.

AP

Wow. Thoughts are there...and all over where there are cries. Night. Will keep in mind all in these
Quoting tornadodude:
Bordonaro- that is so devastating and incredible


Between Typhoon Ketsana, the Samoan Tsunami, Super Typhoon Parma and Typhoon Melor, and this earthquake, I swear, I just wanna cry, this is so awful!!!!!
Quoting Bordonaro:


Between Typhoon Ketsana, the Samoan Tsunami, Super Typhoon Parma and Typhoon Melor, and this earthquake, I swear, I just wanna cry, this is so awful!!!!!


it is so depressing
ah ok, I live in West Lafayette Indiana.

I have a friend who is planning on moving around there
Quoting charlesimages:
ah ok, I live in West Lafayette Indiana.

I have a friend who is planning on moving around there
'

oh ok cool
I know everything happens for a reason, but God PLEASE give these people a break!

Super Typhoon Parma is going to trek across parts of the Philippines and Taiwan. Typhoon Melor, is anyones guess where it goes, after Saipan.

The cleanup in Samoa, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines is going to take a long, long time.
Quoting Bordonaro:
I know everything happens for a reason, but God PLEASE give these people a break!

Super Typhoon Parma is going to trek across parts of the Philippines and Taiwan. Typhoon Melor, is anyones guess where it goes, after Saipan.

The cleanup in Samoa, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines is going to take a long, long time.


No doubt, long road to recovery, we can pray, and also donations to Portlight are a great idea



mines bigger :P
Earthquakes have really been prevalent.. we are beginning day 3 of this really active time. Kind of overwhelming. I wonder if we will see Tonga have a really strong one.
Quoting Skyepony:
Earthquakes have really been prevalent.. we are beginning day 3 of this really active time. Kind of overwhelming. I wonder if we will see Tonga have a really strong one.


Tonga has had a few small ones within the last couple of hours. the latest being a 4.8


this is a picture of my station that i have its located on the roof of a 15 story building which is mounted on a mask 20 feet above roof line
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


this is a picture of my station that i have its located on the roof of a 15 story building which is mounted on a mask 20 feet above roof line


very nice
parma

eye so not clear no more
Went to Twitter, there are so many people trying to reach friends and family in the Panang area. Post after post after post of people leaving their phone numbers for their loved ones to call.

News reports are very upsetting. Currently the Global Red Cross is assisting in the Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Indonesia and Samoa.

Nearly impossible to get any further reports out of Panang. Infrastructure is totally crippled, no power, no water, and the 2nd quake futher terrified the people. Reports say people came running out into the streets.

The USGS stated the revised 6.6 MW earthquake was NOT an aftershock from yesterday's 7.6 MW quake, rather a new event.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

possible low level circulation on that T-wave
might be a player down the road if the caribbean can find some better shear condition
what you guys think
Link
We've been looking at that. Mostly still wait & see, though.

Quoting xcool:


oh matt looking at snow ;)
And in the WY central basin, too, not just over the Winds and Bighorns....

Quoting tornadodude:


Tonga has had a few small ones within the last couple of hours. the latest being a 4.8
Looks like Tonga is having something volcanic... they are watching but no warnings yet. Given the extent of seismic activity along the WPac edge this week, anything could happen there....
Samoa just had a 5.9
This eQuake alert is really handy.
Quoting victoriahurricane:
This eQuake alert is really handy.


I like it a lot, Tonga just had 4.8
Another in Samoa, man this thing has been active
Quoting tornadodude:
Samoa just had a 5.9

i just look at it said 5.5
47 quakes around tonga wow!!!
** WTPQ20 BABJ 010600 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY MELOR 0918 (0918) INITIAL TIME 010600 UTC
00HR 13.9N 152.4E 965HPA 38M/S (75 knots)
30KTS 220KM
50KTS 80KM
P12HR WNW 15KM/H
P+24HR 14.8N 150.3E 940HPA 50M/S (100 kts)
P+48HR 16.0N 146.7E 925HPA 55M/S (110 kts)
P+72HR 17.4N 142.6E 915HPA 60M/S (120 kts)
P+96HR 18.3N 139.2E 910HPA 60M/S= (120 kts)

---
Outlook looks bad.. with a capital "B"
Quoting btwntx08:

i just look at it said 5.5


there were two, look closely
Quoting tornadodude:


there were two, look closely


He's right actually. They revised the 5.9 down to a 5.5
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TYPHOON MELOR (T0918)
6:00 AM JST October 1 2009
================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon Near Truks(Chuuk)

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Melor (955 hPa) located at 13.9N 152.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west-northwest at 7 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm-Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 15.0N 150.6E - 90 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.8N 146.9E - 90 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 18.7N 142.0E - 90 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
812. IKE
Indonesia quake toll
soars past 400


Link
813. IKE
Good Morning everyone
816. IKE
Low of 57.7 at my house, this morning.

For What It's Worth
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning all

Outlook for the remainder of hurricane season


Thanks 456, that is a fantastic read!
Thanks for the update, 456!
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "PEPENG" continues to gain more strength as it moves towards Northern Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
=======================
At 5:00 p.m PhST, Typhoon Pepeng (Parma) located at 12.5ºN 129.1ºE or 440 kms east of Catarman, Northern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 195 km/h (105 kts) with gusts up to 230 km/h (125 kts).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Camarines Norte
2.Camarines Sur
3.Catanduanes
4.Albay
5.Quezon
6.Polilio Island
7.Aurora

Additional Information
===========================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 P.M. today.
820. 789
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning all

Outlook for the remainder of hurricane season
thanks!
At 5:00 p.m PhST, Typhoon Pepeng (Parma) located at 12.5ºN 129.1ºE or 440 kms east of Catarman, Northern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 195 km/h (105 kts) with gusts up to 230 km/h (125 kts).

WOW!! That is BAD! God hhelp all the people over there.
5.1 near Olancha, Ca

No depth? can't find a fault near it. Already reviewed by seismologists, kinda scared me when I looked at the USGS map and saw the big red square over south Cally.

Mostly nobody out there.
good morning everyone best time of the yr to live in e cent florida if there were only waves.

Parma
ut oh

Melor
Reuters

Alertnet.org Predicting Cat 5 at Landfall:
"Typhoon Parma is forecast to strike the Philippines as a super typhoon at about 00:00 GMT on 3 October. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 16.9 N, 123.1 E. Parma is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 259 km/h (161 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher."

Full Moon is the 4th.
Wonder if Dr. Masters has anything on storm surge in this area.
sure there are alot of americans trapped over in indo padang which took the brunt of the massive earthquake is the staging point for boat trips where they take rich surfers on surf trips for 7-10 day cruises back in the mentawais there is also surf camp islands paradises. unfornately this is still the season so guarnteed there are alot of aussies and americans over there. surfers have helped these folks with anti maleria programs and other great things over the yrs its sad to see this supposingly its a very beautiful place with unbelievable surfing waves http://www.mentawaiislands.com/kandui/
829. IKE
Fifty knots of shear in the GOM...40 knots of shear in the Caribbean...40-50 knots of shear east of the islands...40 knots of shear west of the western Africa coast...

830. IKE
And nothing continues with only 60 more days....17 hours...19 minutes left......

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WINWARD ISLANDS

Link
832. IKE
Looks like the cold front moving into the SE USA tomorrow and Saturday will stall out in the northern GOM. Then move back north as a warm front, returning warm and humid air to the lower SE USA early and mid next week.

Possible stronger cold-front may head into the SE USA the end of next week. That front is questionable as to how far south it makes it, at this time.
456 you have mail :)


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


See comments section for the Comedy
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SEPTEMBER WAS A RATHER QUIET MONTH WITH ONLY TWO NAMED STORMS...ONE
OF WHICH REACHED MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE LONG-TERM
AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER IS FOUR NAMED STORMS...TWO HURRICANES...
AND ONE MAJOR HURRICANE. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...
ACE...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL
STORMS AND HURRICANES...SEPTEMBER ACE WAS ONLY 22 PERCENT OF THE
LONG-TERM MEAN...THE LOWEST VALUE SINCE 1994...AND THE SIXTH LOWEST
SINCE 1944.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER CASE LETTERS...
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2009ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
-------------------------------------------------
TD ONE 28-29 MAY 35
TS ANA 11-16 AUG 40
MH BILL 15-24 AUG 135
TS CLAUDETTE 16-18 AUG 50
TS DANNY 26-29 AUG 60
TS ERIKA 1- 4 SEP 60
MH FRED 7-12 SEP 120
TD EIGHT 25-26 SEP 35

Link

A cool story... regardless of your opinion on climate change.
GREAT STORY/LINK COTILLION!!!!!
Quoting reeldrlaura:
GREAT STORY/LINK COTILLION!!!!!


I second that comment.
Amazing what is going on over in the Pacific,Mother Earth is really dumping on those poor people over there.
Thousands feared dead after Indonesia quake

Philippines Mobilizes Armed Forces for Second Storm in a Week

Navy forecasters designated Parma as a supertyphoon when its wind speed reached 240 kph. Its winds are forecast to strengthen to 259 kph by 2 p.m. tomorrow, making it a Category 5 storm, the strongest rating.

Such storms are capable of causing catastrophic damage and can blow roofs off residential and industrial buildings, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

The Navys five-day forecast indicates Parma will cross Luzon and head toward Taiwan, where more than 600 people were killed in August when Typhoon Morakot blew across the island.

To the east of Parma, Tropical Storm Melor strengthened to a typhoon with winds of 194 kph, according to the Navy center.

Melor was 809 kilometers east of the U.S. territory of Guam at 2 p.m. Manila time today, the typhoon center said. The storm was moving west-northwest at 17 kph.

The storms winds are forecast to strengthen to 213 kph within 24 hours. The Navys forecast track shows it crossing the island chain of Saipan north of Guam and heading toward the southern islands of Japan during the next five days.
840. IKE
I feel for all of those people. Too much at the same time.

Here's a mellow song to ease their suffering...Link
Parma looks to be major headlines in the coming days, going from one thing to another over there
Quoting Weather456:
Geeze...



Looks very familiar like on 8/30/2005.
Unenhanced IR on 91E

Looks likes we might get a brief TC soon in the Eastern Pacific. DMAX within the next hour or so.
Invest 91E(As of 8:00AM EDT)
18.9N 117.9W
Winds:35 MPH
Movement:WNW at 8 MPH
Pressure:1004 MB

i guess mother nature is doing fall cleaning

invest_RENUMBER_ep912009_ep182009.ren

TD 18-E has formed.

It might be a brief one though.
847. IKE
NEW BLOG!
New Blog
the left hook on parma at the end of the navy map doesn't bode well for Hong Kong... IIRC, the "worst case scenario" for them is a storm clearing the philippines to the north and then heading southwest, strengthening and recurving...
back at you ike for mellow surfers http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce6RdNBi3V8
Quoting IKE:
Fifty knots of shear in the GOM...40 knots of shear in the Caribbean...40-50 knots of shear east of the islands...40 knots of shear west of the western Africa coast...

Is there a little shear in the tropics?...lol