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Two minor threat areas to watch in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:50 PM GMT on August 13, 2012

The remains of Tropical Depression Seven are headed westward at 20 mph across the Central Caribbean, and will bring heavy rain to Jamaica and Southwest Haiti today. Satellite loops show that ex-TD 7 has only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, with no signs of any organization. High wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating today. Wind shear will fall to the low range over the disturbance on Tuesday and Wednesday, but there is not going to be enough time for ex-TD 7 to develop before it moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L over the Central Atlantic.

93L
A large tropical wave (Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 1200 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. The storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. By Saturday, as 93L is headed northeastwards towards the Azores Islands, the disturbance will find a moister environment, and the GFS model predicts development into a tropical storm will occur. None of the other reliable models predict development, but residents of the Azores Islands should keep an eye on 93L. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning.

Another area to watch this weekend will be the Gulf of Mexico, where a fall-like cold front is expected to stall out. Though no models are showing tropical storm development will occur, wind shear is predicted to be low to moderate this weekend, and cold fronts stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico often serve as the seed for tropical storms.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1002. SLINKY
GFS @ 192 hr:




GFS total precip at 192 hr:

1003. MTWX
Had to post the page turner, and with that, goodnight folks!
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ok I'll check it out thanks. The latest GFS has the blob sitting basically on TX/MX for days before finally going west into STX. That should bring a lot of rain to that area.

Quoting SouthCentralTx:


Ok thanks! I'll just keep a eye out the next few days and see what happens.

If you wanted to read about it, there are a few places that still show what happened, just Google 2002 Texas floods. This area received up to 35 inches and had Canyon Lake over flow.


Or it could mean we could have set up similar to July of this year - which is not unusual.

The only local met that I listen to is Steve Browne on KSAT.

Some of them merely remind of "sportscasters" - and possibly out for ratings.
hey guys just poping in EX-TD7 ain't doing too bad seems that it has developed a COC confirmed on night mode RGB location at 15.7N 77.4W movement WNW I'm going to wait till sunrise to properly confirm it
@ATHOMEINTX

Thats what i was trying to post a minute ago and my browser went nuts!! Looks like a lot of rain in areas that need it if this solution pans out!!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys just poping in EX-TD7 ain't doing too bad seems that it has developed a COC confirmed on night mode RGB location at 15.7N 77.4W movement WNW I'm going to wait till sunrise to properly confirm it


Ex td07 is done with, its over. It will be hitting land soon so why even mention it
Any IT people in the house?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys just poping in EX-TD7 ain't doing too bad seems that it has developed a COC confirmed on night mode RGB location at 15.7N 77.4W movement WNW I'm going to wait till sunrise to properly confirm it


My friend i really hope this storm magically reforms for you...you have harped on this for days!! If it does not reform no one is going to take you seriously ever again! LOL No significant development will occur unless its energy can reach the BOC!! IMO
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Any IT people in the house?
I might be able to help you, what seems to be the issue?
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
@ATHOMEINTX

Thats what i was trying to post a minute ago and my browser went nuts!! Looks like a lot of rain in areas that need it if this solution pans out!!


WOW! That is a lot of rain. Hopefully this will be nothing but beneficial. Of course it all could change but after the GFS nailed Debby I'm reluctant to write it off so easily. It's had a similar solution for a couple of days now. Be interesting to see what pans out. :)
Here we go again... First wave has good rotation... Second getting to the water.... third one is a little monster....



Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys just poping in EX-TD7 ain't doing too bad seems that it has developed a COC confirmed on night mode RGB location at 15.7N 77.4W movement WNW I'm going to wait till sunrise to properly confirm it

We'll see how it does against the dry air to its west...link to WV image...

Still skeptical on this regenerating...point out the pros and cons of ex-TD7's environment in paragraph P6 of my newest post I released an hour ago...
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


WOW! That is a lot of rain. Hopefully this will be nothing but beneficial. Of course it all could change but after the GFS nailed Debby I'm reluctant to write it off so easily. It's had a similar solution for a couple of days now. Be interesting to see what pans out. :)


Yes and i noticed i was taking the system into central Mexico...its trending farther north...i believe its developing a stronger system and if its gets strong enough it will "feel" the tug of the massive trof to its north!! Could be something for us here is SE Texas to keep an eye on as well!! Ya never know!! Dont forget sneaky little Humberto!!
Quoting AegirsGal:
I might be able to help you, what seems to be the issue?


Um, I turned my laptop off normally, then a couple hours later I come back to turn it on. When I press the power button nothing happens. I plugged it in and the charging light came on, when I pressed the power button the light just turns off. It did that for a while and now the light just flickers once when I plug it in. I've been troubleshooting for an hour. Any advice would be welcomed. Its a dell 15r.
I was at Matagorda Beach this Saturday with my family. We pulled up and saw dead fish everywhere! Fortunately the breeze was coming from offshore so we could sit at the water's edge and not smell much. We shoveled the fish away from our car doors so we could have room to get at our stuff without tiptoeing. It was bizarre. I let TX Wildlife know about it because the news said it was Galveston and Surfside Beach. Matagorda is about 75 miles south of Surfside. They're still saying red tide or lack of oxygen with high algae bloom. Very sad.
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:


Yes and i noticed i was taking the system into central Mexico...its trending farther north...i believe its developing a stronger system and if its gets strong enough it will "feel" the tug of the massive trof to its north!! Could be something for us here is SE Texas to keep an eye on as well!! Ya never know!! Dont forget sneaky little Humberto!!

What...is the GFS predicting something out of the SW GOM blob?

Quoting sunlinepr:
Here we go again... First wave has good rotation... Second getting to the water.... third one is a little monster....





This latest t-wave sure is taking its sweet time to organize compared to previous wave 93-L...
Quoting SLINKY:
GFS @ 192 hr:




GFS total precip at 192 hr:



I think GFS has been showing this wet weather for SE Texas coast in the last several runs, no? I've been impressed with GFS this season so far for track accuracy.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Um, I turned my laptop off normally, then a couple hours later I come back to turn it on. When I press the power button nothing happens. I plugged it in and the charging light came on, when I pressed the power button the light just turns off. It did that for a while and now the light just flickers once when I plug it in. I've been troubleshooting for an hour. Any advice would be welcomed. Its a dell 15r.
Have you tried removing the battery, and then put it back in? Sometimes that will resolve the issue, as silly as it may sound.
1022. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:
Here we go again... First wave has good rotation... Second getting to the water.... third one is a little monster....






Little? :P
Quoting AegirsGal:
Have you tried removing the battery, and then put it back in? Sometimes that will resolve the issue, as silly as it may sound.


Yep, I've done that. I have held down the power button while no battery is in to remove any excess electricity built up. That didn't work either.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

What...is the GFS predicting something out of the SW GOM blob?


This latest t-wave sure is taking its sweet time to organize compared to previous wave 93-L...


Quoting sunlinepr:
Here we go again... First wave has good rotation... Second getting to the water.... third one is a little monster....







and they all end up....PUFFFFFFFFFFFFF


Medina Lake near San Antonio. Will be having a 100 year celebration. Lake is at record lows.

(Sorry pic is so large)
Quoting barefoottexan:


I think GFS has been showing this wet weather for SE Texas coast in the last several runs, no? I've been impressed with GFS this season so far for track accuracy.


Yeah POPs go up Friday and are high all weekend 60-70%!!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Yep, I've done that. I have held down the power button while no battery is in to remove any excess electricity built up. That didn't work either.
Were you using straight battery power when you were using it before, or was it plugged in?
Quoting JLPR2:


Little? :P


Once again, we will see models updating these new waves...

Tomorrow.... I mean, today (1:08 AM)
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:



LOL...I am too lazy to go check the GFS on the annoying MAG page on NOAA's site (which crashes a lot still)...

I see this image is interesting...but what does the animation of GFS show prior to that image? Is that S Texas low originating from ex-TD7 or the SW GOM blob?
Quoting AegirsGal:
Were you using straight battery power when you were using it before, or was it plugged in?


Plugged in at work, I shut it down put it in my backpack. Pulled it out at my house, and it was completely unresponsive. It's fully charged.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

LOL...I am too lazy to go check the GFS on the annoying MAG page on NOAA's site (which crashes a lot still)...

I see this image is interesting...but what does the animation of GFS show prior to that image? Is that S Texas low originating from ex-TD7 or the SW GOM blob?

I looks to me to be a combination of both the convection already present and td7's energy!! The GFS forms a low in the extreme southern BOC in 78 hrs then moves it northward from there before stalling it near the Mexican coastline...then moving it northward into Brownsville as a 1001 mb system!

LINK
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:


Yes and i noticed i was taking the system into central Mexico...its trending farther north...i believe its developing a stronger system and if its gets strong enough it will "feel" the tug of the massive trof to its north!! Could be something for us here is SE Texas to keep an eye on as well!! Ya never know!! Dont forget sneaky little Humberto!!


Oh Humberto's not something I'm likely to forget! And I can forget a lot apparently. Lol. Rode him out in a mobile home. Under two gigantic pines. They were bent over whipping the house. Somehow they survived Humberto. I don't know how they survived Rita! One of them did not survive Ike but thankfully fell right between my two neighbors houses. The other giant we had removed in 2009. I think everyone around here stopped cutting their trees down in 2010. I guess we were a little rattled. :)

And yes I've noticed the northward trend too. But still hoping if it has to be that it stays weak and goes where it's needed. And I'm keeping an eye on the Matagorda Bay area where my son and his family are now.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Plugged in at work, I shut it down put it in my backpack. Pulled it out at my house, and it was completely unresponsive. It's fully charged.
I am sorry I couldn't be of any additional/useful help. I was looking online for any other way to resolve the issue, but I am coming up with zilch.
1035. SLINKY
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

LOL...I am too lazy to go check the GFS on the annoying MAG page on NOAA's site (which crashes a lot still)...

I see this image is interesting...but what does the animation of GFS show prior to that image? Is that S Texas low originating from ex-TD7 or the SW GOM blob?


IMO - I think it is the combination of the current SW GOM blob and the residual energy and moisture of TD7 as it moves into the that area of the SW GULF later this week.
1036. JLPR2
00z GFS was interesting.

Gordon forming from some left over energy from TD 7 in the Gulf, Helene from 93L and Isaac and Joyce as CV storms with Isaac out to sea, Joyce was in the CATL by the end of the run.

Here is possible Gordon at its peak.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Plugged in at work, I shut it down put it in my backpack. Pulled it out at my house, and it was completely unresponsive. It's fully charged.


Press On....Place your ear over the keyboard, if you hear an intermitent sound then you have a HDrive fairlure, mostly caused by damaged sectors....

Hope that is not the situation...

If you get it to boot, press F8 and select a Safe Mode boot... Or the last configuration that Worked...

If your reach Windows, schedule a Hard drive boot scan to fix errors....
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Oh Humberto's not something I'm likely to forget! And I can forget a lot apparently. Lol. Rode him out in a mobile home. Under two gigantic pines. They were bent over whipping the house. Somehow they survived Humberto. I don't know how they survived Rita! One of them did not survive Ike but thankfully fell right between my two neighbors houses. The other giant we had removed in 2009. I think everyone around here stopped cutting their trees down in 2010. I guess we were a little rattled. :)

And yes I've noticed the northward trend too. But still hoping if it has to be that it stays weak and goes where it's needed. And I'm keeping an eye on the Matagorda Bay area where my son and his family are now.


LOL Yes i was working nights as a general foreman at BASF refinery in PA Texas and i kept telling my superintendant that the storm was coming and getting stronger by the hour!! He didnt really believe me til it blew down the lunch tents at about 4 a.m. LOL
Quoting AegirsGal:
I am sorry I couldn't be of any additional/useful help. I was looking online for any other way to resolve the issue, but I am coming up with zilch.


Eh looks like im going to Best Buy tomorrow. Thanks anyway!
It's been a while since I have seen this much dry air in the Atlantic basin. The Atlantic should be in shut down mode for at least the next 1-2 weeks....until it can mix out some.
If anyone else has a suggestion feel free to inbox me.
.
right I think redevelopment to a TD could be possible I give it a 40/50% chance diapite dry air (if there was no dry air I would put it at 70/80%)
redevelopment and strengthng to a TS hmm don't think that will happen I give it a 0.99999/1.00000%
1044. JLPR2
Looks like 1/4 of a circulation at 15N 80.5W heading towards Nicaragua/Honduras.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
right I think redevelopment to a TD could be possible I give it a 40/50% chance diapite dry air (if there was no dry air I would put it at 70/80%)
redevelopment and strengthng to a TS hmm don't think that will happen I give it a 0.99999/1.00000%


Maybe like the GFS said... Ex-TD7 plus GOM moisture could turn into Gordon near Texas.
Quoting SLINKY:


IMO - I think it is the combination of the current SW GOM blob and the residual energy and moisture of TD7 as it moves into the that area of the SW GULF later this week.

Thanks for sharing. Looks to me just to be from ex TD7...but ex-TD7 has gotta go thru Central America/SE Mexico first..we'll see if a fragment of it surf pressure field really ends up in the SW GOM like this model says. For me...its too early to buy into this...

And wow...the GFS pulls off an Invest 93-L-like tropical wave (high-latitude/strong tropical wave) and makes it recurve toward the Azores later on as a full-fledged tropical cyclone. I'll believe that scenario when I see that strong tropical wave actually come off the coast...

As for 93L itself...it still looks toast thanks to dry air...

Beadtime...
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:


LOL Yes i was working nights as a general foreman at BASF refinery in PA Texas and i kept telling my superintendant that the storm was coming and getting stronger by the hour!! He didnt really believe me til it blew down the lunch tents at about 4 a.m. LOL


It was quite a ride! I stood and watched out the little window in the back door. Wasn't anything else to do at the time. It was really scary during the lightning flashes after the transformers blew. Lol. Maybe it was a good thing I couldn't see all of it. The rain was blowing straight in the door horizontally. Everyone was huddled in the end of the house away from the trees. My niece from Ohio was staying with us and she was freaking out pretty good. Called her parents and told them I'm IN a hurricane! :)
Quoting JLPR2:
Looks like 1/4 of a circulation at 15N 80.5W heading towards Nicaragua/Honduras.


If this is the case...then ex-TD7 is headed right into Nic/Hon and won't develop due to landfall...
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


It was quite a ride! I stood and watched out the little window in the back door. Wasn't anything else to do at the time. It was really scary during the lightning flashes after the transformers blew. Lol. Maybe it was a good thing I couldn't see all of it. The rain was blowing straight in the door horizontally. Everyone was huddled in the end of the house away from the trees. My niece from Ohio was staying with us and she was freaking out pretty good. Called her parents and told them I'm IN a hurricane! :)


I crossed the Rainbow bridge that night going home close to the peak of the storm and let me tell u i thought it was gonna blow me off of the bridge...guess the winds were stronger at that height!!
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:


I crossed the Rainbow bridge that night going home close to the peak of the storm and let me tell u i thought it was gonna blow me off of the bridge...guess the winds were stronger at that height!!


Oh wow! The winds were incredibly strong at ground level. I would not have wanted to be out in that especially on that bridge! Ok, you're ride was officially wilder than mine! Lol.
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:


I crossed the Rainbow bridge that night going home close to the peak of the storm and let me tell u i thought it was gonna blow me off of the bridge...guess the winds were stronger at that height!!

Y'all are talkin about Humberto '07?

I've gotta say...that was unbelievable how fast it spun up. It developed beneath an upper anticyclone that ventialted it...but I don't think that explains it RI (rapid intensification). I am guessin' that the profile of the coast...plus the incoming front to the north...helped to focus the surface circulation big time...this is just my speculation...
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Y'all are talkin about Humberto '07?

I've gotta say...that was unbelievable how fast it spun up. It developed beneath an upper anticyclone that ventialted it...but I don't think that explains it RI (rapid intensification). I am guessin' that the profile of the coast...plus the incoming front to the north...helped to focus the surface circulation big time...this is just my speculation...


Yes thats the one!!
1054. JLPR2
A spin is slowly taking shape right at the coast of Africa, although if it wants to develops it has to move west, more north and it hits colder SSTs, one of the reasons 93L fell apart.



Quoting xtremeweathertracker:


Yes thats the one!!

Are there any papers or studies Humberto's RI? It seems to me this storm is just shrugged off...it should be studied a lot more (I offered my two cents in post 1052)

I think its important to study Humberto because of how suprising it was to coastal interests. The accounts of Humberto's suprise on this blog show this....
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Are there any papers or studies Humberto's RI? It seems to me this storm is just shrugged off...it should be studied a lot more (I offered my two cents in post 1052)

I think its important to study Humberto because of how suprising it was to coastal interests. The accounts of Humberto's suprise on this blog show this....

You are correct..i havent seen any studies, but i am curious about its cyclogenesis as well!! I wouldnt be surprised to see this kind of thing happen again this year in the GOM seeing how Ernesto kinda took off after taking advantage of these smoking hot waters!!
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Y'all are talkin about Humberto '07?

I've gotta say...that was unbelievable how fast it spun up. It developed beneath an upper anticyclone that ventialted it...but I don't think that explains it RI (rapid intensification). I am guessin' that the profile of the coast...plus the incoming front to the north...helped to focus the surface circulation big time...this is just my speculation...


I've been reading and blogging about the tropics since 2008 the day after Eduoard came through at 2 a.m-ish! Seems to be when they like to come here. Because it was like ENOUGH ALREADY! :) Anyway, I still don't know what caused the RI. But it wasn't too far from where Audrey rapidly strengthened anyway. Don't know what caused that either.
Goodnight all, see you all later!!!
NHC seems unimpressed

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLC RIDGE ALONG 27N WILL MOVE N TO 29N FRI
AND SAT WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. SE WINDS
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAVE DECREASED TO 10-15 KT. TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THU AND FRI THEN MOVE INLAND SAT.
SE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

You are correct..i havent seen any studies, but i am curious about its cyclogenesis as well!! I wouldnt be surprised to see this kind of thing happen again this year in the GOM seeing how Ernesto kinda took off after taking advantage of these smoking hot waters!!

Well...Humberto was spawned from the remnants of a frontal boundary...the same decaying frontal boundary that Gabrielle developed off of...only Humberto's fragement retrograded westward around a mid-level ridge and into the GOM...

Good night to you...
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
NHC seems unimpressed

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLC RIDGE ALONG 27N WILL MOVE N TO 29N FRI
AND SAT WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. SE WINDS
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAVE DECREASED TO 10-15 KT. TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THU AND FRI THEN MOVE INLAND SAT.
SE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

Nah...they are just being conservative. Right now...who knows for sure what shape ex-TD7 is gonna be when its north end touches the BOC/SW GOM...
1063. JLPR2
93L is popping popcorn.

One hope I see for this invest is for it to move more north while the dry air continues west, eventually ridding itself of it and developing. This seems to be what the models are seeing as they develop it as it moves out to sea.

CALGARY — A ferocious storm that hammered parts of Calgary with hail stones larger than golf balls late Sunday, causing millions of dollars worth of damage, could have been much worse if cloud-seeding planes hadn’t attempted to calm it down.

“The storm was a monster,” said Terry Krauss, project director of the Alberta Severe Weather Management Society, which contracts American-based company Weather Modification Inc. to seed severe weather clouds in Alberta’s skies. The society is funded by a group of insurance companies with a goal of reducing hail damage claims.

Before the storm hit, Krauss said, the company sent all four of its cloud-seeding aircraft into the thick and swirling black clouds. The planes flew for more than 12 hours, shooting silver iodide, a chemical agent that helps limit the size of hail stones, at the top and base of the clouds, until midnight.

But despite the heavy seeding, golf-ball-sized hail stones pelted parts of Calgary late Sunday night, causing widespread damage to cars and homes.

“This one was a beast. It took everything we threw at it and still was able to wreak some havoc,” said Krauss. “I believe if we hadn’t seeded, it would have even been worse.” more here.

Quoting JLPR2:
93L is popping popcorn.

One hope I see for this invest is for it to move more north while the dry air continues west, eventually ridding itself of it and developing. This seems to be what the models are seeing as they develop it as it moves out to sea.



Ok...but I don't see where the butter is...
2 AM NHC TWO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
1100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ONLY LIMITED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

Look's like 93L's been bumped up to 20%. The butter must be at Forecaster Berg's house...whoop whoop...
I can never post this pick here but looks like a couple of the bams turn north with tw7, albeit over land. Link
good morning / night everyone on the night crew. just got off work and see active times ahead!
here comes our monsters from the african coast. choo choo!!!
fasten your seatbelts late aug and sept. will be rockin and rolling!
Looks like the GFS wants to develop something in the BOC and have it drift north towards Texas a week from now.
1072. TXCWC
0Z GFS still on with a possible Texas storm I see and GFS Ensemble Mean is onto it now as well

0Z Ensemble Mean


0Z Mean 180hr
1073. JLPR2
Watching Sactuary on Syfy made me loose track of time, dang! I'm wide awake at 4am. :\

Anyway, 93L is looking a lil happier:



Africa has a nice on at the coast:



And if Ex-TD 7 had more space it would have had a nice chance at redevelopment.

I expect some position fixes will be re-evaluated&altered on the next ATCF report, nonetheless...
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalWaveSeven for 14August6amGMT:
MinimumPressure remained at 1008millibars
MaxSusWinds decreased from 30knots(35mph)56km/h to 25knots(28.8mph)46km/h
Vector changed from 270.2*West@15.7mph(25.2km/h) to 270.4*West@33.5mph(54km/h)

PEU-PuertoLempira :: PUZ-PuertoCabezas

The easternmost unlabled dot is where AL07 began its 2nd day as a TropicalWave
The easternmost dot on the westernmost line is TW.7's most recent position

The westernmost line is a straightline projection through TW.7's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29 kilometres) to a coastline
13August6pmGMT: TW.7 had been headed for passage 2.8miles(4.4kilometres)South of PuertoCabezas (bottomPUZblob)
14August12amGMT: TW.7 had been headed for passage over PuertoCabezas (middlePUZblob)
14August6amGMT: TW.7 was heading for passage 2.1miles(3.4kilometres)North of PuertoCabezas in ~2&1/2hours from now (when this was posted)

The previous mapping for comparison
Copy&paste cun, peu, puz, 13.98n83.425w, 14.03n83.378w, aua, 14.0n68.0w- 14.2n70.4w- 14.2n72.7w- 14.1n74.9w- 14.1n76.6w, 14.1n76.6w-14.1n78.0w, 14.1n78.0w-14.1n81.0w, 14.1n78.0w-14.08n83.337w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
Quoting JLPR2:
Watching Sactuary on Syfy made me loose track of time, dang! I'm wide awake at 4am. :\

Anyway, 93L is looking a lil happier:



Africa has a nice on at the coast:



And if Ex-TD 7 had more space it would have had a nice chance at redevelopment.


It does still have a chance as a piece will get into the boc and interact with boc moisture already there.
1064 Skyepony:
But despite the heavy seeding, golf-ball-sized hail stones pelted parts of Calgary late Sunday night, causing widespread damage to cars and homes.
"This one was a beast. It took everything we threw at it and still was able to wreak some havoc," said Krauss. "I believe if we hadn't seeded, it would have even been worse."
Ifn those insurance companies are silly enough to insist that hiring rainmakers worked, then a better case could be made that they caused all of the hailstone damage, including to the uninsured.
Which could lead to some interesting class-action lawsuits.
1077. JLPR2
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

It does still have a chance as a piece will get into the boc and interact with boc moisture already there.


Yes, but the new system would probably get a new name, as it would only be a piece of energy from the original system. The TW will probably go on and cross to the Pacific.

So that would mean TD 7 wouldn't regenerate, it would help form a new system.
Quoting JLPR2:
Watching Sactuary on Syfy made me loose track of time, dang! I'm wide awake at 4am. :\

Anyway, 93L is looking a lil happier:



Africa has a nice on at the coast:



And if Ex-TD 7 had more space it would have had a nice chance at redevelopment.

If it can move into the gulf of Campeche it might have a chance but models don`t bring it in there.
1079. JLPR2
Well I'm out, going to try and get some sleep.

Good night... more like morning everyone! XD

See you all later.
Quoting aspectre:
I expect some position fixes will be re-evaluated&altered on the next ATCF report, nonetheless...
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalWaveSeven for 14August6amGMT:
MinimumPressure remained at 1008millibars
MaxSusWinds decreased from 30knots(35mph)56km/h to 25knots(28.8mph)46km/h
Vector changed from 270.2°West@15.7mph(25.2km/h) to 270.4°West@33.5mph(54km/h)

PEU-PuertoLempira

The easternmost unlabled dot is where AL07 began its 2nd day as a TropicalWave
The easternmost dot on the westernmost line is TW.7's most recent position

The western line is a straightline projection through TW.7's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29 kilometres) to a coastline
13August6pmGMT: TW.7 was had been headed for passage 2.8miles(4.4kilometres)South of PuertoCabezas (bottomPUZblob)
14August12amGMT: TW.7 had been headed for passage over PuertoCabezas (middlePUZblob)
14August6amGMT: TW.7 was heading for passage 2.1miles(3.4kilometres)North of PuertoCabezas in ~2&1/2hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste cun, peu, puz, 13.98n83.425w, 14.03n83.378w, aua, 14.0n68.0w- 14.2n70.4w- 14.2n72.7w- 14.1n74.9w- 14.1n76.6w, 14.1n76.6w-14.1n78.0w, 14.1n78.0w-14.1n81.0w, 14.1n78.0w-14.08n83.337w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
The mission will probably be cancelled.
Quoting JLPR2:
Well I'm out, going to try and get some sleep.

Good night... more like morning everyone! XD

See you all later.
Night hope you can sleep:)
1082. Walshy
Quoting allancalderini:
If it can move into the gulf of Campeche it might have a chance but models don`t bring it in there.

check the gfs
1084. TXCWC
ALL 12 0Z GFS Ensemble members agree with the 0Z Operational and develop either a BOC Low or fully developed tropical storm within 7 days Link
1085. TXCWC
IF...IF the GFS ends up correct and something does dev in the BOC over the next 7 days - this will be another big "win" for the upgraded GFS as no other model is even coming close to the consistency the GFS has been showing for a BOC low/storm the last few days
My New Video Blog Link
Relocated to comment1074
Severe storms and poor drainage destroy Riverton crops
By Holly Bochurka
Updated 1 day ago
A weather system that keeps hitting an area of Riverton this year has caused major losses. Overland flooding, hail and wind damage along with issues of improper drainage affect an area of approximately 20,000 acres, and has farmers reporting huge crop losses and water logged land.

“Last Wednesday there was a huge storm in the exact same area, about five miles wide with winds in excess of 100 km an hour and hail. It hailed out quite a few farmers, us the worst, with 1,300 acres totaled (destroyed),” said John Sigurdson, a grain and cattle farmer in the Riverton area.


Sigurdson isn’t the only farmer affected by the large swath of destruction from the storms. He estimates that there is a total of 20,000 acres affected by the hail or overland water issues, with his family losing approximately $700,000 of winter wheat, spring wheat, soybeans and canola crops. He adds that approximately $150,000 of those losses resulted from the inadequate drainage issues in and around Riverton, with only a percentage of losses covered by crop insurance.

“We started seeding on the 16th of April and finished in May. It looked like a bumper crop on June 15th when I drove around looking and thinking that it was too good to believe,” explains Sigurdson.

That elation only lasted a day, when June 16th brought 75 ml of rain with three thunderstorms that wiped out 50% of his Canola. On August 1st wind and hail that wiped out many soybean and wheat fields. Sigurdson noted that there was a huge variability in the amounts of precipitation Riverton experienced of 32 inches (since the beginning of March) compared to 12 inches of rainfall 12 miles away in the Arborg area.

Natalie Hasell, Meteorologist for Environment Canada, agrees and adds that there has been a wide swath of severe weather across the Prairies from West Edmonton across and down to Swan River and Riverton, not affecting other nearby areas such as Arborg.

“The data does coincide with what the farmer (Sigurdson) is suggesting of what’s happening,” said Hasell.

As the Sigurdson family recovers from the severe disaster of a storm that included 100 millimeters of rain, 80-kilometer winds and golf ball sized hail; they face new challenges as overland flooding wipes out other crops. Link
1089. Walshy
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


There's no way South America is that big...
1090. LargoFl
..............................good morning folks..looks like a normal florida day today..HOT with a chance of afternoon showers...have a great one folks
Good morning, it's not even 5:30 in the morning and already 81 degrees with a heat index of 86, humidity of 90%. Going to be a hot one in Louisiana today.
nice.this.yr...86..but.a.breeze..e.c.fl.
1093. palmpt
Quoting susieq110:
My New Video Blog Link


Nice job...
td7.second.life..moving.west
1095. TXCWC
06Z GFS amazingly consistent with 0Z GFS so far out to 7 days with BOC storm. Not letting go of the BOC storm dev.
Quoting palmpt:


Nice job...


Thanks
Good morning. The GFS continues to show active times ahead.

1098. VR46L
Quoting bigwes6844:
here comes our monsters from the african coast. choo choo!!!


And look at the moist environment it has to grow



and in places looks strong
1099. TXCWC
GFS so far not blinking - let's see if other models and model runs today do. Would love the much needed rain - not too much at once though.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys just poping in EX-TD7 ain't doing too bad seems that it has developed a COC confirmed on night mode RGB location at 15.7N 77.4W movement WNW I'm going to wait till sunrise to properly confirm it
give it up kid...its over.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Are there any papers or studies Humberto's RI? It seems to me this storm is just shrugged off...it should be studied a lot more (I offered my two cents in post 1052)

I think its important to study Humberto because of how suprising it was to coastal interests. The accounts of Humberto's suprise on this blog show this....


Here you go (not sure if you have access to beyond the abstract, as I found this from inside my university's network).

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010J AS3172.1?journalCode=atsc



http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1256/qj.05. 42/abstract

Quoting bigwes6844:
fasten your seatbelts late aug and sept. will be rockin and rolling!


Perhaps there will be time to try "inverse phasing?"

1104. VR46L
The blob in the BOC underwent Great Blobular Fizzle, last night, and has become some what, depleted since last night .
But will it grow again, and be something of interest today ?





Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, it's not even 5:30 in the morning and already 81 degrees with a heat index of 86, humidity of 90%. Going to be a hot one in Louisiana today.
About the same here in South Central Texas, some temps are in the mid 80's here humidity is high.
93L up to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...
IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED BEFORE THE WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
1050 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE... 30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, it's not even 5:30 in the morning and already 81 degrees with a heat index of 86, humidity of 90%. Going to be a hot one in Louisiana today.
Yes - Yes, summer humidity is back in Northwest Florida this morning. No coffee on the porch or pasture stroll this morning; air conditioner and treadmill instead!
quick question becuase I can not remember but is this wave supposed to go out to sea?
Quoting kshipre1:
quick question becuase I can not remember but is this wave supposed to go out to sea?


If you are talking about 93L,yes.
this is what we fear. one can only guess about the high's and troughs that can be expected.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. The GFS continues to show active times ahead.



GFS always shows active times ahead and never materializes.
thanks
The Atlantic Basin looks extremely unimpressive this morning.


By the way the HPC is not agreeing with the GFS in developing a Gulf low as no other model is showing this. People in "South TX" will not be happy to see this. Houston area though should get some nice rain.
Good Morning. I was thinking it was a little drier around here this morning. And apparently it's an ABBA kind of day says my IPOD. That's ok. I can spell ABBA. :D



Partly Cloudy

79°F

26°C

Humidity94%
Wind SpeedSW 3 mph
Barometer29.98 in
Dewpoint77°F (25°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index83°F (28°C)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Good Morning. I was thinking it was a little drier around here this morning. And apparently it's an ABBA kind of day says my IPOD. That's ok. I can spell ABBA. :D



Partly Cloudy

79°F

26°C

Humidity94%
Wind SpeedSW 3 mph
Barometer29.98 in
Dewpoint77°F (25°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index83°F (28°C)


Looks like some frontal rains heading your way this weekend. I'm sure that would be welcome as RitaEvac said there's been no rain in Houston for almost a month now.
interesting you say that because some guy on the weather channel yesterday was saying that a area of low pressure in the eastern pacific could move eastward towards the western caribbean and possibly a storm could form there. That I think Dr. Masters was saying something yesterday about watching the gulf of mexico next week. I wonder if these are correalted.
Quoting kshipre1:
interesting you say that because some guy on the weather channel yesterday was saying that a area of low pressure in the eastern pacific could move eastward towards the western caribbean and possibly a storm could form there. That I think Dr. Masters was saying something yesterday about watching the gulf of mexico next week. I wonder if these are correalted.



No way in hell a low would move east from the Pacific into the Caribbean in August. You really have to take The Weather Channel with a grain of salt as their Tropical Weather forecasting is terrible and has been since Dr. Steve Lyons left. Brian Norcross was not good for TWC and glad he's gone. They really need Dr. Steve back.

Quoting aspectre:
1064 Skyepony:
But despite the heavy seeding, golf-ball-sized hail stones pelted parts of Calgary late Sunday night, causing widespread damage to cars and homes.
"This one was a beast. It took everything we threw at it and still was able to wreak some havoc," said Krauss. "I believe if we hadn't seeded, it would have even been worse."
Ifn those insurance companies are silly enough to insist that hiring rainmakers worked, then a better case could be made that they caused all of the hailstone damage, including to the uninsured.
Which could lead to some interesting class-action lawsuits.


The story seems to me, like they're trying to make it sound like they saved the day....when there's no way of knowing what, if any affect it had. Maybe that's the size the hail would have been anyway? They can't prove it would or wouldn't have been worse, so sounds like they figure if that sound confident enough that they did help, people will believe it. Cause they aren't going to keep making money at it, and keep being hired to do it, if they don't make them believe they're helping
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looks like some frontal rains heading your way this weekend. I'm sure that would be welcome as RitaEvac said there's been no rain in Houston for almost a month now.


Looks like my NWS agrees with you. They're going with the EURO model because it's more positive for us. Lol.

SHORT TERM...WENT WITH WARMER CONDITIONS THAN GUIDANCE TODAY AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUBSIDENCE TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
CLIMO AS WELL AS THE FLOW ORIGNATES OUT OF THE CARRIBEAN.

LONG TERM...WENT WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
ON TAKING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO OUR AREA LATE
THIS WEEK. SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT COMES FROM A BROAD AND FAIRLY
DEEP MID LATITUDE TROF WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
THIS NOW LOOKS TO RESULT IN A WET PERIOD FROM LATE THURSDAY RIGHT
ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK BLENDED IN THE COOLER EURO
TEMPS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE GULF.

SWEENEY
Quoting StormTracker2K:



No way in hell a low would move east from the Pacific into the Caribbean in August. You really have to take The Weather Channel with a grain of salt as their Tropical Weather forecasting is terrible and has been since Dr. Steve Lyons left. Brian Norcross was not good for TWC and glad he's gone. They really need Dr. Steve back.



They won't he's anti GW
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I think JFV can forecast better than these idiots on TWC. Maybe that's why it's more like MTV now with reality series almost every hour.


JFV can forecast better hhaha
I did not know. I was just repeating what I heard the guy say.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I think JFV can forecast better than these idiots on TWC. Maybe that's why it's more like MTV now with reality series almost every hour.

All of the hurricane specialists on there have their degrees...do you?
Pressures remains very high for 93L, but a good sign is that the winds are up 5 knots from the previous update.

AL, 93, 2012081412, , BEST, 0, 242N, 498W, 25, 1015, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

who is jfv?
Quoting kshipre1:
who is jfv?


Janiel F Vargas

He trolls here often enough that we are on first name basis with him.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Pressures remains very high for 93L, but a good sign is that the winds are up 5 knots from the previous update.

AL, 93, 2012081412, , BEST, 0, 242N, 498W, 25, 1015, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,



It's prolly just from the thunderstorms continued growth
oh ok
Houston hasn't written off gulf development yet...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING TO BE MORE WET
THAN IT HAS BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. MODELS BUILD THE RIDGE
OVER THE 4 CORNERS INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT STRETCHES TO THE GULF. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING A FRONT INTO SE TX LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT MON
WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING IT OFF THE COAST. THE GFS DISSIPATES THE
FRONT ON SUN BUT BRINGS A TROPCIAL WAVE INTO THE W GULF WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE UPPER TX COAST.
PRECIP WATER
VALUES JUMP ABOVE 2 INCHES SUN INTO MON WITH THE GFS FORMING A
POSSIBLE WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE LOWER TX COAST. STILL LOTS
OF UNCERTAINY SURROUNDING THE GFS SOLUTION
BUT AT THIS POINT
EITHER MODEL SUGGEST 30-40 POPS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM EITHER THE GFS OR THE ECMWF
SUPPORTS CONVECTION AND A WET PATTERN. THIS WILL ALSO HOLD DOWN
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID/LOW 90S WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME BREAK FROM
THE UPPER 90S TO 100F THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
Good Morning. Not much to report this am on the Caribbean end except for the fact that ex TD7 is finally starting to get a little groove on just before landfall in Central America.

On the tropical Atlantic front, finally starting to see a little moisture leaving the coast of Africa. Will have to see over the next two weeks whether the ITCZ will moisten up in earnest or whether SAL will keep it in check. And the 30% out in the middle of nowhere surrounded by dry air.

On the El Nino front, here is today's Enso update from the Aussies. Folks on here noticed a cooling trend a few weeks ago but looks like El Nino back on track. Will have to wait to see how it impacts the tail end of this year's H-season. Lot's of Fall like trofs will have a big impact on hurricane tracks and, we can probably expect a round of pretty severe Fall and Spring frontal boundry action due to the Southern jog of the jet stream over the next 6-9 months due to the El Nino.


Renewed development towards El Nino
Issued on Tuesday 14 August | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Climate indicators in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain close to El Nino thresholds. Although El Nino development stalled during the second half of July, over the past fortnight indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index and trade wind strength have shown renewed trends that are consistent with the early stages of an El Nino event. Likewise, the central Pacific Ocean has continued to warm.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology continue to show further warming across the tropical Pacific Ocean, with temperatures exceeding El Nino thresholds before the end of September 2012. None of the models surveyed indicate a return to La Nina conditions.


During El Nino events, large parts of eastern Australia are typically drier than normal during winter and spring, while southern Australian daytime temperatures tend to be warmer. However, El Nino does not guarantee widespread dry conditions.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Outlooks from the Bureau%u2019s climate model indicate a neutral to weakly positive IOD is likely through the remainder of winter and spring.

Weekly sea surface temperatures:

Warm sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central tropical Pacific continued to increase slightly when compared to two weeks ago, however anomalies in the far eastern tropical Pacific have decreased. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 12 August shows warm anomalies extend along most of the equator east of about 170E, reaching more than 2 C warmer than usual in a small area of the eastern tropical Pacific.

Climate Models:
International climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to remain at or above El Nino thresholds for the remainder of winter and into early 2012. Several of the surveyed models also continue to exhibit a degree of spread in their forecasts, indicating that a level of uncertainty remains.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

All of the hurricane specialists on there have their degrees...do you?


Yes
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Pressures remains very high for 93L, but a good sign is that the winds are up 5 knots from the previous update.

AL, 93, 2012081412, , BEST, 0, 242N, 498W, 25, 1015, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,



And convection is increasing.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Not much to report this am on the Caribbean end except for the fact that ex TD7 is finally starting to get a little groove on just before landfall in Central America.

On the tropical Atlantic front, finally starting to see a little moisture leaving the coast of Africa. Will have to see over the next two weeks whether the ITCZ will moisten up in earnest or whether SAL will keep it in check. And the 30% out in the middle of nowhere surrounded by dry air.

On the El Nino front, here is today's Enso update from the Aussies. Folks on here noticed a cooling trend a few weeks ago but looks like El Nino back on track. Will have to wait to see how it impacts the tail end of this year's H-season. Lot's of Fall like trofs will have a big impact on hurricane tracks and, we can probably expect a round of pretty severe Fall and Spring frontal boundry action due to the Southern jog of the jet stream over the next 6-9 months due to the El Nino.


Renewed development towards El Ni�o
Issued on Tuesday 14 August | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Climate indicators in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain close to El Ni�o thresholds. Although El Ni�o development stalled during the second half of July, over the past fortnight indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index and trade wind strength have shown renewed trends that are consistent with the early stages of an El Ni�o event. Likewise, the central Pacific Ocean has continued to warm.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology continue to show further warming across the tropical Pacific Ocean, with temperatures exceeding El Ni�o thresholds before the end of September 2012. None of the models surveyed indicate a return to La Ni�a conditions.


During El Ni�o events, large parts of eastern Australia are typically drier than normal during winter and spring, while southern Australian daytime temperatures tend to be warmer. However, El Ni�o does not guarantee widespread dry conditions.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Outlooks from the Bureau%u2019s climate model indicate a neutral to weakly positive IOD is likely through the remainder of winter and spring.

Weekly sea surface temperatures:

Warm sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central tropical Pacific continued to increase slightly when compared to two weeks ago, however anomalies in the far eastern tropical Pacific have decreased. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 12 August shows warm anomalies extend along most of the equator east of about 170�E, reaching more than 2 �C warmer than usual in a small area of the eastern tropical Pacific.

Climate Models:
International climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to remain at or above El Ni�o thresholds for the remainder of winter and into early 2012. Several of the surveyed models also continue to exhibit a degree of spread in their forecasts, indicating that a level of uncertainty remains.



This El-Nino seems to be becoming Central and western based now. We can also expect severe weather to start rearing it's ugly head over the coming months. Could be some pretty hefty Tornado Outbreaks looming as we head into October.
I am hoping this means cooler weather in Florida for fall and winter.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Not much to report this am on the Caribbean end except for the fact that ex TD7 is finally starting to get a little groove on just before landfall in Central America.

On the tropical Atlantic front, finally starting to see a little moisture leaving the coast of Africa. Will have to see over the next two weeks whether the ITCZ will moisten up in earnest or whether SAL will keep it in check. And the 30% out in the middle of nowhere surrounded by dry air.

On the El Nino front, here is today's Enso update from the Aussies. Folks on here noticed a cooling trend a few weeks ago but looks like El Nino back on track. Will have to wait to see how it impacts the tail end of this year's H-season. Lot's of Fall like trofs will have a big impact on hurricane tracks and, we can probably expect a round of pretty severe Fall and Spring frontal boundry action due to the Southern jog of the jet stream over the next 6-9 months due to the El Nino.


Renewed development towards El Nino
Issued on Tuesday 14 August | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Climate indicators in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain close to El Nino thresholds. Although El Nino development stalled during the second half of July, over the past fortnight indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index and trade wind strength have shown renewed trends that are consistent with the early stages of an El Nino event. Likewise, the central Pacific Ocean has continued to warm.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology continue to show further warming across the tropical Pacific Ocean, with temperatures exceeding El Nino thresholds before the end of September 2012. None of the models surveyed indicate a return to La Nina conditions.


During El Nino events, large parts of eastern Australia are typically drier than normal during winter and spring, while southern Australian daytime temperatures tend to be warmer. However, El Nino does not guarantee widespread dry conditions.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Outlooks from the Bureau%u2019s climate model indicate a neutral to weakly positive IOD is likely through the remainder of winter and spring.

Weekly sea surface temperatures:

Warm sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central tropical Pacific continued to increase slightly when compared to two weeks ago, however anomalies in the far eastern tropical Pacific have decreased. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 12 August shows warm anomalies extend along most of the equator east of about 170E, reaching more than 2 C warmer than usual in a small area of the eastern tropical Pacific.

Climate Models:
International climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to remain at or above El Nino thresholds for the remainder of winter and into early 2012. Several of the surveyed models also continue to exhibit a degree of spread in their forecasts, indicating that a level of uncertainty remains.

1136. Houdude
NWS Houston discussion this morning:

THE GFS DISSIPATES THE
FRONT ON SUN BUT BRINGS A TROPCIAL WAVE INTO THE W GULF WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE UPPER TX COAST. PRECIP WATER
VALUES JUMP ABOVE 2 INCHES SUN INTO MON WITH THE GFS FORMING A
POSSIBLE WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE LOWER TX COAST. STILL LOTS
OF UNCERTAINY SURROUNDING THE GFS SOLUTION BUT AT THIS POINT

EITHER MODEL SUGGEST 30-40 POPS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM EITHER THE GFS OR THE ECMWF
SUPPORTS CONVECTION AND A WET PATTERN. THIS WILL ALSO HOLD DOWN
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID/LOW 90S WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME BREAK FROM
THE UPPER 90S TO 100F THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

Quoting kshipre1:
I am hoping this means cooler weather in Florida for fall and winter.


You might might want to remove my comment (in your comment) to free up Blog space but yes. El Nino for Florida boils down to the following: more winter/spring storms, higher rain fall amounts and cooler temps.
Quoting StormTracker2K:



No way in hell a low would move east from the Pacific into the Caribbean in August. You really have to take The Weather Channel with a grain of salt as their Tropical Weather forecasting is terrible and has been since Dr. Steve Lyons left. Brian Norcross was not good for TWC and glad he's gone. They really need Dr. Steve back.

surfing.somewhere
oh ok, thanks. sorry, accidentaly left your comment when I responded.

yeah, the cooler temps would be welcome especially on a sunny fall and winter day. I think come September and October if any tropical cyclones are there, Florida should be on alert due to troughs. could get interesting.
1140. Grothar
From NOAA

The last time that a Northeast Pacific system moved into the Atlantic basin was in June 1989 when Cosme became Allison.

From Weather wiki:

Allison developed from at least three distinct meteorological phenomena: the remnants of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Cosme, a westward-moving tropical wave, as well as a strong upper-level anticyclone draped across the Gulf of Mexico. The aforementioned factors, in combination with a ridge over the central plains were responsible for the environment in which Allison developed. A strong mid- to upper-level trough that had turned Cosme northward was replaced by a well-defined upper-level anticyclone that was centered across the entire Gulf of Mexico. During the period of June 22 through June 24, the aforementioned tropical wave entered the western Gulf of Mexico, causing an increase in deep convection over the area. At 1200 UTC June 23, Cosme's remnants were located just southwest of Brownsville, Texas. Over the following 24 hours, a new circulation center developed just off the upper Mexico coast. Based on surface observations along with data from offshore oil rigs, the system is estimated to have become Tropical Depression Two at 1800 UTC June 24. Over the following two days, the cyclone gradually organized, and the system became a tropical storm at 1200 UTC June 26 as per reconnaissance aircraft reports, although post-season analysis indicates that the cyclone had likely achieved tropical storm status prior to this point, at around 0000 UTC June 26. By 1200 UTC June 26, the ridge to the north of Allison began to erode as a frontal zone moved eastward
Good morning.

Current contitions in Fort Myers, Florida
Temp 77° (25°C)
Humidity 88%
Wind Calm
Barometer 1016.1
Dew Point 73° (23°C)
PW 2.1"
Forcast 40% chance of scattered t-storms. High 93
no.one.knew.how.bad.allison.was.going.to.be..weak.c yclone
Hi All.
I feel sorry for the people of the Philippines.
PAGASA is hopeless. They have been saying that Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (Ph name Helen) was moving NW.

Tropical Storm "HELEN" has intensified slightly as it moves closer to Northern Luzon. Movement: Northwest at 13 kph.

They just tweeted this....

PAGASA-DOST ‏@dost_pagasa
As of 8pm, Tropical Storm Helen consistently moving westward and likely to landfall between Isabela and Cagayan at around midnight.


I have been watching TS Helen for the last 24hrs and it's been moving west.






BTW, the floater of 07L has been reactivated.
Quoting Grothar:
From NOAA

The last time that a Northeast Pacific system moved into the Atlantic basin was in June 1989 when Cosme became Allison.

From Weather wiki:

Allison developed from at least three distinct meteorological phenomena: the remnants of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Cosme, a westward-moving tropical wave, as well as a strong upper-level anticyclone draped across the Gulf of Mexico. The aforementioned factors, in combination with a ridge over the central plains were responsible for the environment in which Allison developed. A strong mid- to upper-level trough that had turned Cosme northward was replaced by a well-defined upper-level anticyclone that was centered across the entire Gulf of Mexico. During the period of June 22 through June 24, the aforementioned tropical wave entered the western Gulf of Mexico, causing an increase in deep convection over the area. At 1200 UTC June 23, Cosme's remnants were located just southwest of Brownsville, Texas. Over the following 24 hours, a new circulation center developed just off the upper Mexico coast. Based on surface observations along with data from offshore oil rigs, the system is estimated to have become Tropical Depression Two at 1800 UTC June 24. Over the following two days, the cyclone gradually organized, and the system became a tropical storm at 1200 UTC June 26 as per reconnaissance aircraft reports, although post-season analysis indicates that the cyclone had likely achieved tropical storm status prior to this point, at around 0000 UTC June 26. By 1200 UTC June 26, the ridge to the north of Allison began to erode as a frontal zone moved eastward


Those Pacific storms always bring a ton of rain! But so did Allisons. :)
1145. ncstorm
Good Morning..

Just something to note..surface lows trying to develop with the blob off the east coast..


Florida, and other parts of the South, will get a higher share of severe weather from frontal passages in the Fall and Spring but I am most concerned for Tornado Alley and other parts of the South this year in the Spring. I was working in Marianna, Florida (north end of the State) five years ago in March of 2007 when the big tornado hit in Enterprise, Alabama which was just about 20 minutes North of us and leveled the local high school and killed 9 people.

The stronger the EL Nino in the Spring, the increased chances of tornado outbreaks going into 2013.
does Florida get cooler fall and winter in a weak, moderate or strong el nino?
Moved to the next page, cuz this became a backpage before I could even refresh to see if it had posted.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hi All.
I feel sorry for the people of the Philippines.
PAGASA is hopeless. They have been saying that Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (Ph name Helen) was moving NW.

Tropical Storm "HELEN" has intensified slightly as it moves closer to Northern Luzon. Movement: Northwest at 13 kph.

They just tweeted this....

PAGASA-DOST ‏@dost_pagasa
As of 8pm, Tropical Storm Helen consistently moving westward and likely to landfall between Isabela and Cagayan at around midnight.


I have been watching TS Helen for the last 24hrs and it's been moving west.






BTW, the floater of 07L has been reactivated.


Hi Aussie. I saw pictures of a couple getting married in the Philippines yesterday. They just gave up and went with the flood. Them and the whole party were standing in the water. But they looked happy. I hope they are. :)

Also, started reading a book that is set in Australia in 1805. Pretty interesting.

Wedding Flood: Couple In Philippines Says 'I Do' In Knee-Deep Flood


1151. ncstorm
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hi Aussie. I saw pictures of a couple getting married in the Philippines yesterday. They just gave up and went with the flood. Them and the whole party were standing in the water. But they looked happy. I hope they are. :)

Also, started reading a book that is set in Australia in 1805. Pretty interesting.

Wedding Flood: Couple In Philippines Says 'I Do' In Knee-Deep Flood




well that dress is ruined..LOL
1154. VR46L
X TD7 heading for land





1155. ARiot
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Those Pacific storms always bring a ton of rain! But so did Allisons. :)


The 89 Allison caught me at Ft. Polk. What a mess. Tanks stuck, throwing track, etc., we paid the price for training during that storm.

The Houston Allison caught me as I had moved there. What a disaster.

Quoting ARiot:


The 89 Allison caught me at Ft. Polk. What a mess. Tanks stuck, throwing track, etc., we paid the price for training during that storm.

The Houston Allison caught me as I had moved there. What a disaster.



Yes they were both a mess for sure! I used to live in Fort Polk a hundred years ago when my dad was stationed there. :)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hi Aussie. I saw pictures of a couple getting married in the Philippines yesterday. They just gave up and went with the flood. Them and the whole party were standing in the water. But they looked happy. I hope they are. :)

Also, started reading a book that is set in Australia in 1805. Pretty interesting.

Wedding Flood: Couple In Philippines Says 'I Do' In Knee-Deep Flood



Yeah I saw that Photo also. Very sweet.
What's the name of the book your reading?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah I saw that Photo also. Very sweet.
What's the name of the book your reading?


The Moon Below by Barbara Bickmore. It talks about the beginnings of the New South Wales. Enjoyed the pics of snow on the Blue Mountains. Now I know where they are. :)
1160. LargoFl
Quoting VR46L:
X TD7 heading for land





..yes looks like td7 will be gone soion..good thing it did not head towards the gulf
1161. LargoFl
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..

Just something to note..surface lows trying to develop with the blob off the east coast..


..watching this one closely alright
Starting to feel the effects of TW7 in Cayman. About 8kts wind with a few drizzles overnight. Very glad NHC got this one right. They're doing a quite well this year.
1163. LargoFl
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Houston hasn't written off gulf development yet...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING TO BE MORE WET
THAN IT HAS BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. MODELS BUILD THE RIDGE
OVER THE 4 CORNERS INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT STRETCHES TO THE GULF. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING A FRONT INTO SE TX LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT MON
WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING IT OFF THE COAST. THE GFS DISSIPATES THE
FRONT ON SUN BUT BRINGS A TROPCIAL WAVE INTO THE W GULF WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE UPPER TX COAST.
PRECIP WATER
VALUES JUMP ABOVE 2 INCHES SUN INTO MON WITH THE GFS FORMING A
POSSIBLE WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE LOWER TX COAST. STILL LOTS
OF UNCERTAINY SURROUNDING THE GFS SOLUTION
BUT AT THIS POINT
EITHER MODEL SUGGEST 30-40 POPS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM EITHER THE GFS OR THE ECMWF
SUPPORTS CONVECTION AND A WET PATTERN. THIS WILL ALSO HOLD DOWN
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID/LOW 90S WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME BREAK FROM
THE UPPER 90S TO 100F THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
.we were watching that area yesterday, seems like we need to all week long,just in case
1164. LargoFl
Quoting Walshy:

Your hurting my eyes. >:(
No surprise...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0910 AM EDT TUE 14 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2012
NUMBER.....12-088

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: FLIGHT INTO THE REMNANTS OF TD #7 FOR
14/1700Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 14/0930Z.
I hope 93L turns today because I ain't liken what I'm seeing. Goes red at 2.
former 07l
NASA ‏@NASA
Some satellite-aided detective work spots an underwater volcanic eruption in the South Pacific.

Link
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
No surprise...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0910 AM EDT TUE 14 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2012
NUMBER.....12-088

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: FLIGHT INTO THE REMNANTS OF TD #7 FOR
14/1700Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 14/0930Z.


Why were they even looking to go???
93L looks lke a open wave this AM i dont see any thing coming from 93L any time soon
Why in God's name, does the National Weather service need 16,000 rounds of .40 cal hollow point ammunition?
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form &tab=core&id=bfd95987a1ad9a6dfb22bca4a19150cb&_cvi ew=0
93L/XX/XX
1177. kwgirl
Good morning all. It has been warm and muggy here in the Keys. I am hoping the forecast for a cool autumn happens and reaches us down here. Usually, we stay warm until late October. Would be nice to have it sooner. Thank you AussieStorm for posting that link to NASA. I had seen a show not too long ago that talked about pumice rafts and how they helped build the Great Barrier reef. Everyone have a g'day!
1179. bappit
Quoting AussieStorm:


Why were they even looking to go???

They schedule things in advance if there is a chance they are needed. The blob was at 20% yesterday on the TWO.
Quoting seafarer459:
Link

Protection against Bloggers!
1181. hydrus
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


The Moon Below by Barbara Bickmore. It talks about the beginnings of the New South Wales. Enjoyed the pics of snow on the Blue Mountains. Now I know where they are. :)
The GFS precipitation map has Tennessee and parts of Texas getting a lot of rain...Link
Quoting seafarer459:
Why in God's name, does the National Weather service need 16,000 rounds of .40 cal hollow point ammunition?
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode= form &tab=core&id=bfd95987a1ad9a6dfb22bca4a1915 0cb&_cvi ew=0
Target practice and law enforcement. The NOAA actually has a law enforcement unit (NOAA OLE), because there are a lot of bad people out there who don't like such things as fishing limits, laws against illegal dumping, and the like. That's all; nothing nefarious, despite what Alex Jones and Ann Coulter are blathering about...

All those acronyms in the RFQ?

DOC: Department of Commerce
NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NMFS: National Marine Fisheries Service
OLE: Office of Law Enforcement
NED: Northeast Division
1183. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
..yes looks like td7 will be gone soion..good thing it did not head towards the gulf


Agreed ... the gulf looks very prime lack of dry air and very hot temps ... in fact the Gulf would be ROCKET FUEL for any depression or vigorous wave





Quoting hydrus:
The GFS precipitation map has Tennessee and parts of Texas getting a lot of rain...Link


They were showing a lot of rain! Hope the areas that really need it get it.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Target practice and law enforcement. The NOAA actually has a law enforcement unit (NOAA OLE), because there are a lot of bad people out there who don't like such things as fishing limits, laws against illegal dumping, and the like. That's all; nothing nefarious, despite what Alex Jones and Ann Coulter are blathering about...


I can see your argument but anyone, anyone who has ever worked in law enforcement or the military would tell you hollow points are not used for target practice.....and all states have wildlife agents, plus the feds to oversee gaming and fishing limits.... and I am not supporting the argument either way....now back to the tropics
Maybe they wanted more rounds than the Joker.
1187. Grothar
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yes they were both a mess for sure! I used to live in Fort Polk a hundred years ago when my dad was stationed there. :)


Your Dad was at Fort Polk a hundred years ago?? Maybe I knew him?
Obviously if they shot the bad guy they don't want the bullet to pass thru the individual and strike an innocent dolphin.Where's your head man?
Morning guys look at EX-TD7 well got to tell ya it dose look much better than yesterday late evening and last night but still look bad in organisation and looks like it want land bad well if it can survive and enter the GOM it could be a really bad system I think it will ride up the Coast of MEX then turn E riding along the coasts of TX,LA,MISS,AL,and Fl landfall in FL then turn NE after leaving FL, impacting Georgia S & N Carolina then moves out Atlantic
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting StormPro:


I can see you argument but anyone, anyone who has ever worked in law enforcement or the military would tell you hollow points are not used for target practice..... and I am not supporting the argument either way....now back to the tropics


Fragmentation rounds are used for target practice...Many stories over the years of Wildlife officers being shot at/or killed when they have stumbled upon folks engaging illegal activities (whether poaching - wildlife violations - or worse) during routine patrols or as a result of a call of some kind. They need to be able to protect themselves in any event when in the field.
Quoting Grothar:


Your Dad was at Fort Polk a hundred years ago?? Maybe I knew him?


HA! Maybe you did. It was the late 60's actually. The 1960's. lol
1193. bappit
Learn here:

"NOAA Office of Law Enforcement Special Agents and Enforcement Officers perform a variety of tasks associated with the protection and conservation of our nation's living marine resources.

"OLE Special Agents and Enforcement Officers conduct complex criminal and civil investigations, board vessels fishing at sea, inspect fish processing plants, review sales of wildlife products on the internet and conduct patrols on land, in the air and at sea.

"The individual OLE Special Agent and Enforcement Officer rely on their FLETC training, seamanship skills, emerging technologies and close partnerships with various local, state, tribal, Federal and international law enforcement partners to protect over 3.36 million square miles of water and enforce international treaties on the high seas.

"In Fiscal Year 2008 alone, NOAA Office of Law Enforcement investigated more than 4,800 incidents.

"While a vast majority of commercial and recreational fishermen comply with the enacted conservation measures, there are still those fishermen - both domestic and foreign - which attempt to thwart the law and conduct fraudulent business. In recent years, the OLE has stepped up its presence in the international scene as more and more fish are imported and exported into and out of the United States."

Still got to watch the northern part of ex td 7 as it'll try to head in the boc to meet up with the moisture its there already
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Fragmentation rounds are used for target practice...Many stories over the years of Wildlife officers being shot at/or killed when they have stumbled upon folks engaging illegal activities (whether poaching - wildlife violations - or worse) during routine patrols or as a result of a call of some kind. They need to be able to protect themselves in any event when in the field.

NOAA is not the US fish and wildlife dept......and I dont know what department uses hollow points for target but I personally dont know one that could afford it
Quoting seafarer459:
Why in God's name, does the National Weather service need 16,000 rounds of .40 cal hollow point ammunition?
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode= form &tab=core&id=bfd95987a1ad9a6dfb22bca4a1915 0cb&_cvi ew=0


I have no Idea but that sound like my kinda stuff also they may need to get about 13,000 round of .40cal tracer rounds oh yeah don't forget the rifles amd M203 launchers
Quoting Neapolitan:
Target practice and law enforcement. The NOAA actually has a law enforcement unit (NOAA OLE), because there are a lot of bad people out there who don't like such things as fishing limits, laws against illegal dumping, and the like. That's all; nothing nefarious, despite what Alex Jones and Ann Coulter are blathering about...


Glad to hear that. For a minute there I thought The NWS was going to start busting caps on AccuWeather.