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Two minor disturbances in the tropics today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:05 PM GMT on July 09, 2006

Two areas in the tropics bear mentioning today, but the long range chances of either of these disturbances developing into a tropical storm are low. The first area is associated with a cold-cored upper level low pressure system north of Puerto Rico and east of the Bahama Islands. A tropical wave is passing through the area as well, and the combination is producing heavy thunderstorms and gusty winds over a large area of ocean. This activity will move slowly northwest over the next few days, but wind shear--currently 10 to 20 knots over the region--is expected to increase, keeping this system from developing.

A large tropical wave about 1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west-northwest at about 15-20 mph. Wind shear has dropped to 5-15 knots over a large region surrounding the wave, and some slow development is possible today and Monday. However, wind shear is forecast to increase sharply in the wave's vicinity on Tuesday, and the wave is pushing northward into an large area of dry air and African dust. These factors make the longer-term growth of this wave doubtful.

High wind shear will continue over the Gulf of Mexico for the next few days, so I don't expect any development there, and the rest of the tropics are quiet.

On Monday, I'll take a look at what one expects in a normal July in the tropics, and speculate on what will happen the next two weeks.

Have a great Sunday, everyone!
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr.
High wind shear in the gulf dr m where do you get the maps to see that from?
Hooray for windshear!!!!
Taz, WSI and SJ both have them, along with WU.
Thanks Dr. I look forward to your post tommorow no your thoughts on the rest of july.
yay WIS so where or why dos dr M is say high winds shear for all i see is low winds shear
Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on July 9, 2006
Here is the most latest advisory from the NHC

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A large tropical wave located about 1300 miles east of the southern
Windward Islands is accompanied by widespread cloudiness and
showers. Any development of this system is likely to be slow to
occur as it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from near
Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and the Virgin Islands northward into
the Atlantic for a few hundred miles are primarily associated with
an upper-level low pressure system. Surface pressures are high and
tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated in this area.
However...the system will likely increase shower and thunderstorm
activity over Hispaniola...Puerto Rico and the southeastern Bahamas
during the next day or two as it moves slowly northwestward.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Monday.
Forecaster Pasch

11. WSI
Taz, the Gulf has high wind shear in most of those images, except maybe around Wed.
Guys remember you cant go by those Shear Maps....They are not 100% right.
the discovery channel currently has a progrom on the Galveston Hurricane, September 8-9, 1900 in which more than 6000 died......

incredible story!
I did not say busy WSI, just pointing out that it is an interesting area for those of us who enjoy watching the ins and outs of formation :)

Maybe someone could give us a good explination of the different levels of shear and how they effect tropical systems.

Alright ya'll, I am off to enjoy the day.

Have a good one

StormJunkie.com for all your model, imagery, marine data, and other weather informatin needs.
15. WSI
".They are not 100% right."

Yeah, but nothing is. LOL!

It gives a good idea of what can be expected though.
Wind Shear is our friend

I hope it high shears until Christmas!

ah i see WIS
18. WSI
Glad the dry air is getting some attention too. Quite visible on the sat. images too, as it was yesterday.
which of these theories can explain increase activity in the Atlantic in the past 10 years.....Global Warming or AMO-Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. please leave your comments or answers at my blog or you can email me.
Some will spend their day trying to find something to prove the Doc wrong ...that's just what they do. :-)

I don't need a computer model to tell me that air is dry - I'm looking at 55% humidity, nice winds, and enough cloud cover to assist the sunscreen.

Heading out for more close encounters with some beautiful tropical weather!

You all have a good one!
Stormy, I'm gonna take your lead and do the same myself. There are those who always want to prove others wrong. Sometimes it works, but most times it doesn't. Have a great day all!
The dry air will become a bigger and bigger problem for 96L as it pushes N also WSI. It has been riding so far S that it has escaped a lot of the dry air up to this point.

Stormy, if my earlier comment was taken as trying to make anyone, including the DR, look wrong, that was not my intent. Just pointing out that there are interesting aspects and things that we can learn from, even on quite weekends or from systems that have little chance to develop.

Tazmanian, the yellow areas are unfavorable....
ah thanks
Sorry, honest - my comment was meant as a general jest - not directed toward any statement posted thus far. Let's just say it was my prediction of things to come. :-)

Sarcasm aside, I have learned a lot from reading the observations, speculations and enthusiasm on this blog. Right or wrong - there is always something to learn.

I've only recently started posting but I started lurking late last season. I do have a sarcastic streak and, in time (if you all don't boot me out of here first), you'll come to recognize my sarcasm as a dry humor ...not as an evil jab.

Now, this time I'm really leaving for the day! I'll enjoy catching up on the speculation when I return.

Stormy it is nice today Got the lawn mowed so I can enjoy the rest of today. Not enough to get excited about weather wise , so I'm on break.
"Galveston, Texas -- One hundred years ago tomorrow, the great Galveston hurricane roared through the prosperous island city with winds in excess of 130 miles per hour and a 15-foot storm surge. When it was finally over, at least 3,500 homes and buildings were destroyed and more than 8,000 people were killed.

"That hurricane left the city totally devastated with the deadliest natural disaster in the history of the United States," said Bill Proenza, director of the National Weather Service Southern Region. "The number of people who lost their lives on that single day represents more than the combined fatalities resulting from the 325 tropical storms and hurricanes that have struck the United States since then. In fact, that single event accounts for one third of all tropical storm or hurricane-related fatalities that have occurred in this nation since it was founded," he added.


Despite the horrendous loss of life, many people were saved by the actions of Galveston's Weather Bureau Manager, Dr. Isaac M. Cline. Cline and the Weather Bureau were aware of the hurricane as it passed over Cuba on a northern track. Consequently, warnings were issued for the eastern Gulf states, Florida and the southern Atlantic coast.

Since wireless ship-to-shore communication was not yet available in 1900, information was extremely sketchy and there was little if any knowledge that the hurricane was strengthening and heading toward Texas.

As the storm neared the Texas coast, Cline became increasingly suspicious of the weather. Convinced that a major storm was pending, he decided to raise the hurricane warning flags atop the Weather Bureau building on September 7th, the day before the hurricane struck. Throughout the 7th and the morning of September 8th, Cline continued to patrol the beach warning people to move to higher ground. With a population of more than 35,000 people, it is likely many more Galveston residents would have died without the warnings. In what would be the last message to reach the outside world, Cline said, "Gulf rising rapidly; half the city now under water."


In 1900, the highest point in Galveston was only 8.7 feet above sea level and the hurricane easily inundated the city with a storm surge of 15 feet."

after watching this documentary on discovery, once again i am reminded of the awesome force of hurricanes, and have a bit more tolerance for those who get angry whan somebody "wants a storm to form".

to hear some of the first and second hand accounts, incuding an orphanage with 10 nuns and 90 orpahans. of the 100 total, only 3 boys lived, clinging to the top of a tree.....

one man wrote in his diary, that the night the hurricane hit, " Everything in Galvenston cried", including the houses...... hundreds or thousands of bodies were loaded on a barge, taken to sea, weighted down, and thrown overboard. one man was so distraught over having to "load" his mother and law on the barge, that he summoned his priest to prey for him, because the task was so difficult. To the priests surprise, a couple days later, the troubled man returned, telling the priest that his mother in law had "returned"...... the priest thought the man had gone mad, but in reality, the bodies had been improperly weighted, and were washing up on the beaches of Galveston..... at that point, burial at sea ceased, and all bodies were buried or creamated where they were found......

i can only imagine how the weather officer for Galveston must have felt, but one of the few people on the island who may have had a clue what he was faced with.

just a terrible tragedy, one I hope never happens again, but of course, we all know that someday, it will happen again...... and lives will be lost, and there will be more stories to tell.....

On this sunday at this time last year I was out making my final prep. for hurricane dennis.It was a much smaller and faster storm than Ivan in 04 there for did not last as long as Ivan (about 8hrs of hurricane force winds for Ivan only a little more than an hour for Dennis ) also daytime v night for ivan Ivan was like living thru a nitghtmare.also diffrent angle of attack there fore a dif. wind dirrection. I could stay on my front pourch during dennis and watch every thing blow by because of the way the wind was blowing I was protected by carport also being daylight I could see.
At least the Two systems were worth mentioning.
I still think people play way too much into shear. A good, strong storm can easily handle 10-15kts.
The N of PR blob looks like it is getting better organized and cooler tops. Just missing a surface low..that could take a while:

While a strong storm can handle 10-15kts of shear and maintain itself, a tropical disturbance is probably not going to develop in the same 10-15kts.
taz been tryin g to post to you for 2 days but cant maybe my pc is and antique but
whatever you have posted the last 2dyas a link or whatever it is please leaveit on your blog
icould notpage down or scroll down through it same with your blog all i got was a black screen so please thank about us old folks
with antiques and quit posting those blank screen blogs thank you for your cooperation and have a good LORDS DAY billy
Global warming causes wind shear!!

Hip Hip Hooray for Global Warming!
- sorry, couldn't resist.
the ull to the north, northwest of Puerto Rico is developing heavy thunderstorms by the center I believe. These centralized thunderstorm complexes are growing in size and getting ready to transition over to a surface circulation. If the thunderstorm growth continues then we could see this by 11pm to 2am tomorrow morning. The wave in the central atlantic has the best chance at developing if it can stay to the south more and not too close to the SA continent.
na cyclone shear dry air dead pool for central atl wave
also p/r upper level low with a tropical wave interacting and more shear what is going to develop you ask shear and taz i wish you would awnser my question about your post please blank locking screen lol
saint, you have mail.
I don't get it. I post my opinion and your already down my throat. Everything has a chance to develop. Anything can happen and you better prepare for it. If this doesn't develop then your right, but until that happens let others state their opinion and I don't even understand what you mean by the last few sentences you even wrote SAINTHURRIFAN.
Yeah your right Gulfscotsman. Bastardi didn't nail that nor do I think he said it would be a category three hybrid low. I just pointed that out that it could happen, but most likely in the winter when temperature contrasts are higher. But I do believe hearing on here that he did apologize for misinterpreting the data.
forget it cyclone i wasnt arguing just trying to explain why its very very unlikely to develop sj asked us older guys to try to explain reasons but now i guess he sees why weatherguy and the other respected knowledgable bloggers have given up on this blog hell masters post
dont ever seem to sink in
NO, SAINTHURRIFAN, I'm sorry if I overeacted I know why you think that and I respect your opinion. I just wasn't sure what you were doing, but all I am saying is that if it doesn't develop then your right if it does then I'm right, but we will all forgive one another???? This is not the point, but learning from over or under forecasting will help us work together in the furture to forecast the real monster from all the others.
Just ran in the house for a moment and wanted to check in. Guys please!!! This blog is the featured blog. I think speculation and learning is what Dr. M meant with this along with his "educated knowledge" trying to help us all. This has been such a nice site, let's keep it that way. Fight, and call names in your own blogs!!! Or is that the issue here? Not enough traffic to show off your testosterone? Sheesh WU has offered us a great learning site, can we do it without being ugly on the main blog?
you are right there gulf scot when have you ever seen masters or mayfield standup and say thier forecast were wrong lol
thats why i like joe he is a stand up guy from the old school
I'm sorry for misjudging you Sainthurrifan. Please forgive me and I'm sorry to all of you for making this a big fiasco, if I spelled this right.
Looks like the PR blob is getting ball.
minor chances of something developing with 96L or the P.R. blob just my opinion guys so please don't jump down my throat it's only but so big! 96L has a broad area of turning to its credit, but the expansive-type waves tend to develop slowly. upper air environment ahead looks marginal to poor, dependent on how quickly an upper trough can dig ahead of it. the wave may just slide by that to the south. model support is weak on this area.
the feature closer to the bahamas move into a favorable upper air environment as it rounds the subtropical ridge. surface pressures are high in the area and it has no vestige of a circulation. longer way to go than 96L.
the overall upper air pattern isn't super-inhibitive, but paired with the strong ridging at the surface, the relative shear is quite high. ridge is forecast to weaken a little in the western atlantic, while an approaching mjo wave should aid in the development of there being overall less shear. even though things should become more favorable for development in the near term, i doubt we'll see anything over the next few days.
Not just you D'Anti, but thanks for that. Good job Stellar! Speculation with reason rules!!
I'm certainly not going to jump down anyone's throat - have a good day everyone - hopefully the blobs don't stand a chance!
Thanks code!
Been looking at the BOC thing, yesterday that wave was suppose to go west into land & be nothing to look at today. There's an upper ridge right above it with a deep trough above that. Lotta shear if it goes N or NE. Really not more than unorganized convection. We've watched a few linger & die over there already.
Skye- Good post thanks for beating me there.
guys/gals just sit back and relax and stop thinking that everything is going to form. Go outside and enujoy the day. NASCAR on me for me soon.
Think that ST may be right.
Oh Did I say that? LOL (slap)
Checked UCF on the East Pacific typhoon, looks like it's gonna hit S. Korea as a weak storm.

They got the 96L invest up there as well. Staying real south, barely avoiding a shredding by S. America.

The ULL looks ominous in convection today but doesn't even have a decent circulation in the upper levels, agreed ST006~ that one has a long way to go.
JP- Have a Good Afternoon enjoy the soccer and Nascar. I know that I will be.
Hope that others take the lead. REST REST REST while you can.

Have a Good Sunday.

JP~ play here! It's a NWS simulator. I'm going to play outside!
Blob over PR...Mas Grande! Looks like it's getting it's act together!
Pretty good spin of note on the CATL wave.
Tropical Weather Outlook:

ABNT20 KNHC 091457
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006






It does look like it has spin
I think the blog could use some more direction. Saying there ain't nothing in the tropics is like saying there ain't nothing to talk about so don't read this blog.

We could be using the typically quiet month of July to learn something. I have posted on some topics I could use some learning on. For instance, why is the west side of a low the divergent side? Whence the MJO? When is shear perhaps less important? What can counteract shear?

Set an example by NOT speculating on what is going to happen in the next two weeks--except as it may illustrate the lesson of the day. That speculation game is boring, and the whales that want to spout will spout anyway.

Just Another Content Provider
See, I said divergent when I meant convergent.
I can't wait for the CATL wave to develop so I can throw StormTop's "written in stone" forecast back in his face.
But then again when that does happen, he'll just re-disappear for another month or two...
Is that spin or a northward surge?
I've got the feeling that StormTop is kind of like Moby Dick and we have a bunch of Captain Ahabs running around here.
I think he believes he's some kind of weather psychic or something and just knows it all before everyone else does...supposedly. That's the only thing I can think of...
I liked Gregory Peck's speech when Ahab first comes out on deck. Reminded me of Richard Basehart's speech in Isle of Dr. Moreau (with Michael York).
Don't have the patience to read the book.
Bappit, Like Dr. Masters said Looks like a lotta shear coming. So what I'm seeing looks like a Northward move , like you are seeing.
if you look close it took a jog to the north and started going W again.. It's looking better... It think it is already a depression the wave in the atlantic
or it could be a burst of convection making look like it turned north
a model i was looking at has it a TS but disapating when it gets in the caribbean
NAcyclone, Quit apoligizin' Let 'er rip.
Where would all of you put the Center of the PR blob? I can't tell if it's below all of the action, or in the middle of it..
Here is a Shear Map that WSI posted early in the blog.
Hope that it helps you all.
Pr blob looks to be about 70n 23w.
Man ! I messed that up. 70w 26n.
It may be trying to form around 21N 66W, seeing that late burst of convection around that area
A low pressure area may be trying to form there
Okay I give up. It's to hard to tell. It's a good looking wave East of the Bahamas.
Ok, thanks, 4 answers, all different on where the center of the PR blob is...I guess I wasn't the only one who couldn't figure it out. If it's on the South end below the convection then I think we are looking at a move in the general direct of the Georgia/N. Fla coast, if it's North it's only chance for US landfall would be way north of that...
So, another question to all...Where do we think it will be or will it be at all in 48-72 hours??
The wave near 9.5N 46W has the best chance of developing out of the two. The area North of Puerto Rico has no lower level spin, while the area near 46W does. As long as the drier African air does not filter in from the North, then something may develop from that area in the next 48 hours.
91. IKE
In reference to the blob N of PR...this from this afternoons Miami, Fl discussion..."The only fly in the ointment for this week is the upper low and the
associated tropical wave north the Puerto Rico. This upper level
low is forecast to weaken during the next 24 hours over the
southern Bahamas...but the tropical wave associated with the upper
level low will continue to move to the northwest and move through
South Florida on Wednesday into Thursday."

"That speculation game is boring"

Bappit......truer words have not been spoken on this blog...I've been checking this blog out for 2 weeks now..in that time...i've watched people take a small area of convection...add spin to it...see an eye..all in it's 5 hours of life before shear blew it apart...not to mention the daily "blob coming to life" spoutings..doesn't matter that it would take an act of God for it to develop because of wind shear and atmospheric conditions.... it's as if if someone can "guess" right..(and yes..if you make a prediction..without giving supporting evidence, not just one link, to support your statement..it's just a guess and not a scientific theory)...they are better than those on here with degrees, dedication and scientific achievements.

those that bring to this site...observations...links to sites they find interesting...information on how storms are formed....and a bit of humor...that's what makes this site worth coming back to..the rest..well..let's just say...some..have never left 2nd grade
Typhoon BILIS formed overnight in the waters where Typhoon Ewiniar formed 5 days ago. Ewinar is downgraded to tropical storm strength. Bilis is rated Tropical Storm strength today. Ewiniar drained much water heat and poured cooling rains in its wake, leaving Bilis insufficient heat to spin up as a powerful intense cyclone, but it is much larger in area size -- expect follding wherever Bilis makes landfall.

Last Night on the Solar Equator:

Midday on the Solar Equator:

CONUS in Daylight:

Correction: expect "flooding" wherever Bilis makes landfall.
ricderr, The degree boys stayed up all night last night. Writing about nothing. They haven't woke up yet.
"That speculation game is boring"

Mostly only to those who either already have a pretty vast knowledge of the working of tropical season, or to those that do not wish to have a better understanding of the tropics and inparticular tropical system formation and destruction.

Sorry 900, I do not know the answer to your questions, but from what IKE posted it looks like it may move through S Fla. Likely as a open wave and not a tropical system.


chefjeff...many degreed guys..ladies too..have spoken volumes....guess it depends on where you spend all your time reading..of course...you could spendall your time reading the "wannabee types" and the "pull it out of out of your butt people' and what you've said...is true
or to those that do not wish to have a better understanding of the tropics and inparticular tropical system formation and destruction.

how does...reading someones guess...help me learn about tropical system formation?..let me have some meat, such as links....relevant facts and articles of interest...when this blog provides that on a regular basis.....people will learn.......wild arse guessing..which seems to make up the majority of posts on here....don't teach anyone..regardless of their background..anything
Guys 96L is falling apart....There's an oven right over it.Dry air will choke this.

Here's a water vapor pic.
stormy here, back from enjoying another beautiful day in the "tropics" ...trying to figure which of ric's categories I fall into ...I know I'm not the "dedicated & scientific" and since I followed the Dr.'s weekend proclamation and enjoyed an awesome weekend in the tropics

...okay, truth be told ...it wasn't until chef's pets deemed it a good boating weekend before I decided to "go for it".

Anyhow, just checking in - heading out now to start the grill!
ric, maybe the first thing you start watching when you get interested in the tropics is the imagery, then maybe you learn to understand vorticity models, and along the way you learn to combine what you see on vis, IR, and WV imagery all to get a better understanding. Along the way people make predictions to see how they do. I don't make so many predictions anymore, but on occasion I will just for fun. It is part of the learning process, even if it is misguided, at least these people take interest.

I saw this on another blog, and it made me think of us.

"The only thing more tiresome than the weenies on this board are the weenie police who feel a need to judge."-HurricaneJosh
Does anybody think anything of the convection in the Bay of Campeche?
Stormy, Caught your blog earlier before you left. I have a sarcastic sense of humor also.
No harm is meant by it. So we shouldn't worry about it . Some of these people need to loosen up. Glad it was a good weekend for you. I just relaxed after two weeks of company. I'll give a report later after I talk with the pets.
Thanks for the praise of my station.
The combination wave/ULL is looking better today than it was yesterday.
The one N of PR that is lol
106. MZT
Be glad that Saharan dust is nothing like this... (Iraqi sandstorm)

sj......i agree with the first part of your post....if you were new to tropical activity...links, people sharing data they've gathered...and the like would give you a working knowledge of what is happening...but read these posts..and you'll see that that type of talk...comprises less than 5 percent of a typical days activity
Guys If upper level shear does not change drastically 96L does not stand a chance of development...According to this shear map, shear is 20knots+ beginning at 50W all the way through the Caribbean and southern Gulf....What a difference a year makes!

SHear is extremely high around that area quake. It is most likely just a fire up of afternoon convection. Which is common.

Now, when that convection comes around a wave like the one in the C ATl. Then it is more important. Convection also has to persist for an extended period of time for it to be of much interest.
ric ...you didn't tally my posts! That should drop your percentage to less than 4 ...easy.
ABNT20 KNHC 092115
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006




ricderr, the wave interaction with the upper trough North of Puerto Rico: Link

This shows no sign of a defined low level circulation.

The wave over the open Atlantic does: Link
hey hurricane23 or one of you guys......can anyone tell me how to make a map like this.

right click and edit with your pc.
save pic first.
ricderr, SJ, Even the experts speculate. We give our imput because we might think otherwise. And we also like to have friendly conversation. You got a problem with that?
Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, the closest location to the blob reporting a pressure of 1014mb and slowly dropping throughout the day
Hi there everybody. I'm a newbie to posting on this site, but I've been reading these blogs for about 6 months now. I can't even start to say how much I've learned Dr. M and all of you here and for that I just wanted to say thank you. I did have one question though for everybody. This year isn't looking like 2005 at all and that's a blessing, but how much is this looking like 2004 maybe? I mean, I don't know how all the models match up, but that season was relatively dead for the first couple months before Florida got hammered. Just wanted to know ya'lls thoughts.
but read these posts..and you'll see that that type of talk...comprises less than 5 percent of a typical days activity

I disagree completely. I think this depends on your understanding and how detailed easch persons understanding is. If someone says wow that wave looks good, and all they are basing it on is IR imagery, then that is what they believe and it is there understanding of. They will learn to understand more over time.

Absolutely not chef. :)

We don't get many hurricanes here in Milan but in honor of Gattuso, Grosso, et al, I had to post the Italian Meteorological Services latest forecast:

Afternoon stormy. Hoep you had a great day on the boat
Man those damn cookies from image shack suck
I guess we have to turn this into the learning channel.
Some Model's for 96L.Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
hey all! i'm new here..i just decided to become a member but i have been reading this blog for almost a year now.
Shears everyone ~~ oops I mean chears lol!
Or cheers for that matter.
hey im new, i am in wubasucks poland.
Welcome weather
Welcome wuba
Is that town for real?
it is a very ncie town, we have good cheese
Shear is on the rise ahead of 96. Getting kind of used to these little waves coming through, a little unnerving when the shear realaxes a bit in the next couple of weeks or so.
I'm really not that dumb. Keep it clean!!!
Guys Shear is supposed to occur in July. Last year, we had about a 15KT easterly shear anamoly (meaning 15KT reduction of the westerly winds.) The season will soon start to pick up Give it a few weeks. Adrian
AMO Vs Global Warming On Hurricane Activity
From since the start of 1995 upon until the present there has been increase hurricane activity in the Atlantic and rare formations as seen above for Cyclone Catarina. There are currently to theories to explain the increase activity. There is the theory of Global Warming and NOAAs explanation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

In your opinion, which is the more likely cause of increase hurricane activity. You can also give reasons why.

You can leave your comments at my blog.
ricderr, SJ, Even the experts speculate. We give our imput because we might think otherwise. And we also like to have friendly conversation. You got a problem with that?

i agree with your statement above....the only thing i've brought up is..that the experts..use scientific data to formulate their speculations..and from what i've read on this blog...many of the non-experts spouting on this blog..don't....
do i have a problem with that?..not at all..i enjoy good fiction...
I disagree completely. I think this depends on your understanding and how detailed easch persons understanding is. If someone says wow that wave looks good, and all they are basing it on is IR imagery, then that is what they believe and it is there understanding of. They will learn to understand more over time.

sj....i agree with you....and the statement you've shared above.....and when that link is shared..others.....now have another source..to better ubderstand what is happening..now..when someone takes that IR imagery alone..and goes that next step..and says...it's gonna blow up to the next named storm..which happens time after time on this site...it gives me a good chuckle...
Ricderr, All the scientific data I've seen in the last two years is , We'll let you know where the hurricane is when it gets there!!!!!
cheff......wow....i can't argue with logic like that....i'm laughing too hard
it gives me a good chuckle...

Nothing wrong with that.

lmfao cheff
21 66 looking healthy going into the night.
Hey every1 here in South Florida the local news meteorlogist say that a depression forming from the wave north of puerto rico (yes now it is a wave) is not out of the question and they also said the the upper level low in front of it is dying
CATL wave is looking pretty healthy. I'd give it till tomorrow before it becomes our second depression if it keeps up so well. It's really not that far away from that status as it is.
Roman I'd imagine that's not too far from the truth. I could possibly see that happening.
lol chef ...

i apologize to the technically endowed if my observations of "gosh, that looks awesome" or "gee, what does red mean again?" are remedial. I'll aspire to polish my tropical tech talk to be a better contributor by next season. For this season, when I ask the remedial questions - just consider me the spokesperson for those lurking that have the same question but may be too intimidated to ask. :-)

SJ - boating was great - thanks!

I'd say our CATL wave (96L invest) would have the best chance at becoming a depression; N of PR blob the next best chance, and the Bay of Campeche blob only a real slight chance. Anyone else agree?
Also with the puerto rico wave ..... there is a new burst of convection if shear stays less than 15 knots for the next 2 days I give it a good chance of developing
It has tonight and that is about it. Maybe a little eye candy.
Yeah all it's gotta do is bring a rotation down to the surface...given a couple more days' time and a reasonably favorable environment, that can certainly happen.
Winds are not responding quite yet when you turn on the High level winds, but showing signs. Not likely though, for those that haven't seen a depression form, you will know when it does. It is, to me, awesome. Seeing the blow up of convection.
PP, I have noticed with most of the waves and lows this year it seems that convection fires more during the day then at night? As opposed to what we normally see with full fledged tropical systems that utilize diurnal cooling.

Any answers /comments?

hows the weather out there?
My thought is the shear levels SJ. Shear is ripping off the tops of the cooling clouds, not allowing them to take advantage of the natural process. During the day, they take advantage of the heat energy, still under shear. So, my final thought is shear.
Please obscene all of WS posts as this is not needed
:( did i offend you guys in some way?
Both never to a point that would sustain development. Alberto was in good conditions for a very short time and you see what formed out of nowhere.
There is one buoy out in the Bay of Campeche that has 29.91 pressure and falling. It's the only place out of the three blobs where I can get a reading from within it, so I guess I'll have to just have fun with this one. Wish I had readings from the other two!
Stormy, Pleeeeeeeeease don't go tech talk. I can say what i say because i've lived here all my life. Believe it or not, You really have to go by normal patterns. I'll wait for the comments on being normal.
Okinawa feels Ewiniars force; new storm develops to the south

Ewiniars closest point of approach to Okinawa was predicted to be 128 miles to the west at 1 a.m. Sunday. Reece indicated winds of 58 mph or greater were expected from midnight Saturday until 6 a.m. Sunday. Peak winds were forecast to be 69 mph at 3 a.m. It should be pretty short-lived, he said. But its still a good idea to stay indoors.

Ewiniar initially was forecast to make landfall on Koreas southwest coast but the latest JTWC forecast instead has the storm passing well west of Osan, Kunsan and Seoul, making landfall near the North Korea-China border about 3 a.m. Tuesday.

SJ & PP - regarding convection at night vs. day. In the summer, are tstorms exploded in the mid to late afternoon. Are you saying that a wave usually builds during the night instead of afternoon? if so, what makes its fueling needs different from our afternoon tstorms?
oops:) there's the link
lol chef ...not sure I could even if I tried. At least I didn't describe the tstorms as "clouds that throw up" (I changed it before posting!)
The only reason I can think of that a wave would build at night, is because the sea birds will be resting.
Stormy, T Storms and Tropical Storms are 2 different animals. Tropical Storms require constant support, be it the heat of the day, or the cool of the night. Tropical Storms take advantage of both situations, T-Storms fizzle once the heat is gone.
Waves also require that support, take one away from shear and a TC is not able to develop.
And it is reduced to your average T-Storm
The waters are warmer than the air at night. If the humity is high & other factors are right, ya get a warm water laden rise in the air that hits cooler temps up high, causing condensation into clouds, rain & convection.

I think hostile tropical conditions & the SSTs haven't maxed yet, are the limiting factors to our early morning show. Though I've seen a few nights this season where the effect was evident.
Just so Ya'll don't think I've lost touch with what's going on. PR wave seems to be breaking up, I can't see much more happening with that.
I really don't see much happening until August.
That came from my calico cat. The other cat and the dog are noncommital.
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 09 2006



good evening,

I been at the beach all day, and have not been able to look at the tropics. I see the PR blob is looking impressive still, cinsidering it is suppose to dying out ( according to the NHC).

If this thing had a circulation at surface, this blog would be going nuts with all the lurkers coming out to give their 2 cents!

I guess we are just gonna have to wait for the shear to show up like they predict.
AMO Vs Global Warming On Hurricane Activity
From since the start of 1995 upon until the present there has been increase hurricane activity in the Atlantic and rare formations as seen above for Cyclone Catarina. There are currently to theories to explain the increase activity. There is the theory of Global Warming and NOAAs explanation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

In your opinion, which is the more likely cause of increase hurricane activity. You can also give reasons why.

You can leave your comments at my blog.

Image to the left is Lighting outlook for the USA.

IF it shows up like they predict...
TD2 will develop tonight near 10N 42W, heading WNW (290) at 13KT. Link

The thing I noticed about the PR blob is that yesterday, it had a bunch of scattered small blobs of convection, but still overall a good bit. But today, all the little blobs seem to have consolidated into one large self-sustaining blob. So it does seem to be pulling together somewhat and perhaps trying to make that tropical transition.
I think the central wave has a long way to go before it becomes a TD, not for another couple of days for sure.
I notice the storms building and rebuilding in the same general area the last couple of hours. If this continues, then maybe we will see the pressures start to fall and get a surface low trying to form.
Evening Rescue
evening everyone!!!
Did I read on here earlier that some forecaster in S.fl stated that the ULL had moved to west and was dying , and that the chance for a depression to form was getting better?

I cant find anything at all from any of the regular sources hinting at that. Anybody know what's up with that?
Trying to learn something here....hope someone will help me.

The NHC and Dr. Masters talk about all the shear in the Gulf of Mexico, and I was wondering how that blob in the Bay of Campeche could hold together as well as it has today? Also, does shear effect the immediate coastline? We have been raining in Houston for the last two weeks, all tropical seabreeze stuff. Does shear not have an effect on the seabreeze front?
hey SJ,

Been out at Folly all day, family had a beach house for the week and we were visiting.

i hate to say i told you people so but i did from the beginning of the year about my 4 reasons why we are not going to have and active hurricane season 2006....shear and african dust will kill this season people you all can watch all the blobs you want you may see a saint swimming out there....all i can say StormTop hit it on the nose one more time...dr masters you can talk about july all you want nothing is going to happen that is worth while untol mid august...we will have a busy september and early october for the gulf coast and eastern seaboard...the majority of the storms will be fish storms this year...so people storm j especially give it a rest listen to stormtop he knows what hes talking about...i will let you know when you have to worry and i dont see that happening for at least another 20 days from the latest atmospheric charts i have looked at....so all you guys have a great july go out and play in the sun and drink lots of long island ice teas.....StormTop
Ok , I know there is a simple answer and I think I know what it is, but how do they now there is 1011mb low with the central wave?

I am thinking a ship reported it, but let me know if I am wrong
woohooo!! a stormtop sighting!!
Shear doesn't stop thunderstorms from forming. It keeps them from organizing into a circulation or organizing further.
Our rain (Houston) was more than seabreeze last weekend.
Never said you did not know anything ST, only that you have the most ignorant approach I have ever seen

Any specifics stormtop?
Uh oh, here we go again...the bear came out of his cave once more. Gather 'round, everyone! Let's go see what ludicrous stuff he has to say this time!
Yea it is nice recue. We had a house out there a couple of weeks ago
ihave27windows...ill try to answer question and if im wrong certainly there will be many to correct me. From what I see on the Gulf of Mexico visible that blob is getting ripped to shreds by shear. Thats why it would be no threat to develop if it was a tropical wave. Basically I think the shear keeps it from getting a rotation and developing more but doesn't stop the convection caused by daytime heating.
ST, if you were listening weeks ago, Dr. Masters called for a quiet July.
I thought my typing was bad! You'd think with an offical advisory like that, he could get somebody to check for errors.
bappit that is the most absurd statement i have ever heard im surprised at you....you need a tongue lashing you need to read and study what shear is....shear will cut thunderstorms in half and it will sure keep a systen from developing...thats not the only fly though the ssp are much higher then last year and are not falling but continue to rise and the sst are falling off from where they were last year....you need to do your homework more bappit.....StormTop
And so did most forecasters!..LOL
bappit your answer is better...short and sweet
I appreciate the info, from everyone. Can't learn if you don't ask.

And to bappit, you're right, wasn't what we had last weekend a low?
Stormtop agrees with my cat !!!!!
79, don't ever ask the ST about his specifics. They are top secret and he will kill you.
There will be a July storm
SJ right...i remember Stormtop threating folks in here a couple of months ago not to ask for his sources...something about his attic if i remember correctly.
weatherguy i said that back in may....there would be a quiet july its all in the posts im the one that predicted 14 named storms and also said that would be a stretch this year...also predicted no cat 5 this year only 2 major hurricanes ...you need to read up on my posts weatherguy lol.....StormTop
In my opinion, ST thinks he knows more than all the NHC experts put together, but in reality he knows about as much as Anna Nicole Smith.

Feel the burn on that one...
Or Jessica Simpson...or Britney Spears...you get the picture, haha
Yeah ok ST. I will go back and read where you had a hurricane hitting New Orleans in May also..LOL What a fool..LOL
I think he uses "resons" to come to his conclusions...those might be the top-secret "data" he gets...
define quite July...depends on how you look at it if you ask me...quite compared to last year would be like 2-3 storms. Quite compared to normal would be 0-1 storm.
quakeman stright to anna nicole...nice!!! LOL!
Just watch something develop from one of our systems that proves him wrong...he'll go out and disappear for another month or two again...
Good point Bama, it IS normal!..LOL
Just let ST be, we dont really listen to him any way.

The PR blob is still firing off pretty good, can we expect this to continue through the Diurnal period??? SJ , anybody else??
New NHC guidance Link
C'mon , there is no secret info. You can get the same sources. Except for bats in the belfry.
Tho we had fun with the TV Weather girls last night! :)

Can I ask a REALLY basic weather question that my neighbors are arguing about without being called "stupid"? :>)

question...on this GFS shear map is that an UUL forming the Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours out and then moving into mexico.Link?
Allright, if he's going to start criticizing Dr. Masters in his own blog, he needs to get the hell out of it. Plain and simple.

Stormtop I wont curse in Dr. Masters blog like you do, but you can feel what I want to call you!..LOL Nah, I dont want to read up on your stuff because none of it makes sense..LOL Like when a hurricane was coming to the Gulf Coast in May!..LOL
I have the 23rd of July for Chris as a major so, somthing better happen soon.
No human can predict the future activity of the Atlantic hurricane season with accuracy ~ASL

Us in the weather forecasting field will be happy with a scientific analysis of a 2 week forecast period.

whats the question randy?
Posted By: rescueguy at 12:42 AM GMT on July 10, 2006.
Just let ST be, we dont really listen to him any way.

I think we should follow this advice...it is true we don't listen to him, and if we keep questioning him it'll only egg him on...but if we just ignore him he'll just quietly go away again and no one will be hurt.

Though as much as we all want to pound his face in...
Although, we are always entertained by the long term forecasts,,,,
rescueguy~ that was what someone heard off their local weather guy hype on tv. The pressure is high on that ULL, NW of PR, NHC just said they don't expect formation.

Here's 96L on Navy set on the wind ~around 30kts.

27windows ~ On the BOC blob, Formosa's discussion earlier had that convection continuing for the next 24hrs. The shear is north of the blob. If it trys to go N or NE it's shedded right now. The shear just keeps the blob from getting a spin & becoming a TD, it blows the rain away from a storm or can carry the upper level spin & the lower level spin away from one another. Shear doesn't stop rain. As far as it affecting the sea breeze, it depends on which way the different levels are blowing, how hard & the moisture content of the air. Main ingredient is moisture with land warmed air rising up into upper cooler air coming from the ocean. Shear is the difference of the flow of air at the different levels.
I feel like I've been baptized! Hooray!

Yeah, we had an upper level low--and lots of shear. All the precip moved about 15 knots. We were lucky it stayed off the coast mostly.

weatherguy you are nothing but a fake thats why you dont want to read anything i said for this year because im the only one on here that predictes a near normal season...what did you and the great dr gray predict i believe it was 19 storms...lol what a joke you all are all paranoid from KATRINA....
>> Posted By: bamaweatherwatcher at 8:50 PM EDT on July 09, 2006.
whats the question randy?

>>Thanks bama:

The bottom of the clouds as storms approach, the tops (as we know rise with wator vapor), but why ar the bottoms "gray"? I'm only a private pilot as far as weather goes, but is it not because of dust particles weighing down the water molecules as its beginning to rain?

I may be WAYY off, thats why I thought I'd ask, but its touchy to actually ask a weather question in this blog (tho its a fun blog!). :>)

Yep, I am a fake. I will show you my fake degrees when you have a minute!..LOL
I just looked at the NHC guidance as well, and I dont get where the the shear is coming from, looking at the data there!

It looks to come right through th central islands like JP said.
Actually, I predicted 22 storms..LOL
WEatherguy lol a monkey could get a degree you need common sense and thats what you dont have ....end of discussion lol
Anyone have any QUIKSCAT info?
dont know randy...i always figured the bottom of the clouds were gray cause the sun couldn't light them and make them look white....thus the thicker the clouds the darker the bottom of the cloud looked.
247. WSI
"Yep, I am a fake. I will show you my fake degrees when you have a minute!."


Lay off ST. weatherguy is one of the best and brightest on this board. Don't let the jealousy overwhelm you.

Lenny, I am on the phone with Shera, she says hello:)
no need to be trigger shy
i am tired of St for the night, anybody else??

Thought so!!

Goodbye ST!!
The water in the clouds blocks the sun. So it turns a darker shade of gray.

The evening Allison flooded Houston, I saw huge clouds coming from the south and they were a greenish tint at the base. There was so much water in them they absorbed eveything but the green like the ocean does.
stormtop...no monkey can get a meteorologist degree.. you have to be great at math and physics nowadays to get that piece of paper. So dont knock the degree!
well all i have to say is you guys are in deep trouble lol............weatherguy couldnt forecast a rainstorm lol what a joke........
I love you too ST. Have a good night!


I'm outta here. Got to get up early. This should be informative and fun. So please try to keep it that way. All weather is still a guessing game. Mother nature keeps it that way !!!
So, anyways, what are everyone's thoughts about 96L? Link
>> Posted By: bappit at 8:57 PM EDT on July 09, 2006.
>>The water in the clouds blocks the sun. So it turns a darker shade of gray.

Thanks for your reply, so if I am to understand this correctly. I learned that a raindrop need a nucleus (dirt, whatever) to form around. So if it started to get bogged down it would turn the cloud "gray". What you're saying is simple refraction from the sun and plain water vapor. is that the case?

Really, I stare at the clouds as they start o bunch up and have wondered about this for years. I know I need a life. :>)

Ft. Myers... and we've had our share of gray clouds lately.
261. Alec
Posted By: STORMTOP at 12:56 AM GMT on July 10, 2006.
well all i have to say is you guys are in deep trouble lol............weatherguy couldnt forecast a rainstorm lol what a joke........

EXCUSE ME?????????????????????
Posted By: STORMTOP at 4:30 PM EDT on May 23, 2006.
no question about it .the depression will form sometime friday or saturday..you guys will start changing your tunes by friday...

that is all im going to say...dont blast the good bob! Cant sit back and watch him get blasted by you.....
hurricane79 i believe its just going to tease us but get sheared apart in a couple of days. I know that some of the models has shear dying off in a couple of days ahead of this system but with the dry air and all i just think too many things will go wrong for ole 96L
Shear forecast...Link
thanks for posting that alec...that always seems to scare ST off. his little depression that was going to hit the northern gulf in may

Somebody asked about the 1011 pressure reading for the central Atlantic wave. I went to here and found some reports around 29.80 in the general vicinity. They may have adjusted those upwards a little because of the atmospheric tide which can vary the pressures by a few millibars. 1011 mb would be 20.85 inches.
Posted By: STORMTOP at 4:30 PM EDT on May 23, 2006.
no question about it .the depression will form sometime friday or saturday..you guys will start changing your tunes by friday...

And what about Alberto? He said that it would be a hurricane hitting Texas.
hey ST...... how goes the pscho-therapy? :)
Best I can tell Stormtop can't forecast the sun coming up in the morning
The nucleus is too small to see for a cloud droplet. The liquid water absorbs sunlight--and reflects and refracts. Water vapor is transparent in comparison but does absorb some wavelengths.
weatherguy on that last link the red means high shear or unfavoralbe shear right?

Stormtop...i know you mean well...but just try to be nice and stay clean......we can all learn from one another....
Posted By: alaema at 1:00 AM GMT on July 10, 2006.
Best I can tell Stormtop can't forecast the sun coming up in the morning

Haha, this is some good comedy over here. Seriously, I'm laughing.

We all need to make a sitcom or something, and ST would be the brunt of all the jokes. That'd be so good!
" As the StormTop Brews"
Yes Bama.
I do not post often on here but i read often. I believe that the information provided on here is invaluable and helps many lives.

I also think it is fine to post an opinion and if you are wrong...who cares. Weather is an imperfect science. However, individuals like stormtop who come on here and proclaim that they he is the end all be all is abnoxious and detracts from the many positive posts here

his constant degrading posts twoard other people is something that should not be tolarated.

The following is to provide proof of his beligerence and inaccuracies so that maybe he can tone himself down a little.

these are stormtops own posts when alberto was forming. (This of course after he said that there would be no storms forming until july 4th)

Posted By: STORMTOP at 5:20 PM GMT on June 10, 2006.
im thinking the upper texas coast if the high stays where its at..if it shifts a little east then we have problems here...only time will tell but there is no way its going east with that strong ridge out in the gulf...keep watching the clouds ahead of the system and see if they move wnw we dont want that...

Posted By: STORMTOP at 10:12 PM GMT on June 10, 2006.
steelmagnolia what i see right now is this system being alberto by 5 am sunday...this storm will be driven by the huge high in the gulf and the north to south trough coming in 24 hours...if this trough is strong enough it will begin to erode the high and shove the dry air into texas...i think if this occurs sunday alberto will move towards the nw and gradually increase in strength and a watch will go up for some parts of the upper texas and sw la coast sometime monday night or early tuesday...if the high weakens even further this could be a problem for the miss. and la coast again...i think the intensity will be a cat 1 hurricane as it stands right now...contact me later tomorrow and i will be able to give you more details at that time.....

Posted By: STORMTOP at 11:01 PM GMT on June 10, 2006.
lefty i didnt say anything about a major hurricane i said a cat 1 80mph at landfall as it stands now..i know how fast this can blow in the warm waters of the gulf lefty...i seen to many systems go from a tropical storm to a cat 2 over night..i told you the gulf is a completely different animal from the caribbean...

Posted By: STORMTOP at 11:20 PM GMT on June 10, 2006.
lol the trough is not going to push it ne...your models are full of spaghetti...they will shift later on tonight..

Posted By: STORMTOP at 12:33 PM GMT on June 11, 2006.
southbeach it will still move on a nw to wnw track fla is out the woods on this....

Posted By: STORMTOP at 2:56 PM GMT on June 11, 2006.
i cant believe the NHC IS sticking to the ne again...they are so dam consevative with hte computers there is no way that alberto will make a sharp turn like that with nothing to steer it that way...whats wrong with those people they are going to keep listening to those crapy computers didnt they learn their lesson last year with katrina...i wonder..

so as you see stormtop....it is okay to be wrong but your arrogance and insulting of not only the NHC, Dr. Masters, and fellow posters is inexcusable and only exemplifies how wrong you usually are.


I emailed 03 earlier and asked a few questions about shear that I had, maybe some will find it interesting also.

"They are combined when you look at the maps. But, mostly we are looking at horizontal shear when pertaining to tropical systems. When you look at the CIMMS shear map you will see that they obtained those numbers by taking the 100-350mb mean shear(upper levels) and subtracting the 700-925mb mean shear(lower levels). So by looking at that map you get a general idea of the wind shear throughout the atmosphere. They also break it down alittle further by looking at the mid-level wind shear, taking the 400-600mb layer and subtracting the 700-925mb layer. I like to look at both. Most of the time they are pretty much the same. So unfortunately you cant get a good idea of wind shear at each level, because they are taking a mean average of all of the levels. From 500mb to 100mb is the higher levels of the atmosphere. 600 to 925mb are the lower levels. If the shear is high from 500mb to 100mb, it will not let our tropical system breathe and T-storm tops will get sheared off. Even if the Mid-Level shear is alittle lower, the Upper Level shear could still be high and thus no tropical development. Now the atmosphere is constantly changing and sometimes these shear map are not perfect..LOL Again, we are taking a mean average. So my take is if its 20kts. or below, it has a chance. Some us the 10kt. criteria, but like I said its an average, so if shear is around 15 to 20kts I wouldnt discount it totally, but I wouldnt get very excited!..LOL I hope that helped you a bit, I try not to get too technical because I would confuse you. Dont want to get into fluid dynamics!..LOL " weatherguy03

Hope you don't mind 03

The little bit of red in the PR blob infrared loop looks to be rotating around, maybe just my eyes getting tired after being in the sun all day
where is SL96 located?
I use the look out the window meathod!
282. IKE
ST...your cutting down of MANY others on here doesn't help your reputation. You need to stop doing it. If you can't then don't post.
infrared imagery cannot be used to detect rotation, use quikscat ;)
ignore ST for the love of god. this has happened 1000 times already.
Upper level Winds are steady WNW to NW around the blob rescue, Big TStorm.
ok, i have a proposition, tell me where the blobs are and i will do an hwind analysis.
alaema, 96L is located near 10N 41.5W heading WNW near 13 KTS
21n 62w would be the other mass of T-storms
thanks, analyzing now ;)
no surface circulation detected. geuss thier just blobs.
96L has a 1011 MB surface low with it...
JP, I would go with the shear. I dont see anything making me believe the shear is going to decrease ahead of this system. Especially, if it gets into the Caribbean
Look at the PR blob from this site's IR image:

New convection forming on the SE side and feeding into the main blob...looking good for it I'd say.
I can't answer you JP. My guess is that things have changed since they put each of the maps out?
It makes me wonder what the diurnal convective maximum will do to both of our main blobs here tonight.
well i guess its time for some shakespeare little lenny
remember if you have a problem you know where to find me little
so you insulted my friends now this is for you ode to little aliias st alias jeff
my name is lenny my forecasting is worth a penny my sources and weather staion is in the toilet of jc penney
i always get upset because i cant get out of this dress that belongs to my mommy jenny. bob beware you should cre for all cat 5s are going to the no dennies
i lenny promise my forecasting skills to be as good as john goodman is skinny keep it up Boy. and thisold saint well you at 15 can fill in the blank soory pony sure you object i guess you dont like good poetry lol
Navy puts 96L at 25 kts and 1010 mb currently.
The most effective way to deal with trolls that come here only to provoke is DON'T FEED THEM (i.e. don't respond).

Just a thought!

Have a great night all....
PR Blob has tonight, that's all. Eye Candy!
Whats up CC.

That is the best way

Eye candy maybe...it might have other plans though...
96L is fun to watch. That is a true wave under little shear. Low that shows nothing until a depression blossoms.
SO the Pr Blob is one big Tstorm moving wnw with the upper level flow.

Then why are the storms over hispanola being
blown to the SE? Should they not be moving the same direction as the big Tstorm??

Agree quake!
Hey SJ!

I'm just lurking and enjoying the "all's quiet" forecasts that we've been having down here in STX. Nice to see you -- hope all is just as well with you...
Very true PP. It is in the best possible place tonite, with low shear. Could even get a TD out of it tonite? But then it will get ripped apart later tomorrow!..LOL
Nhc has been calling the PR blob a deadfish for several days now, and yet we are still talking about it.

So what happens to it as it closer to high that is off the east coast, is that what is gonna kill it???
PR disturbance is strickly an Upper Level feature, thats why they arent talking too much about it. Pressures have remained high. As we have seen, its very hard to get an ULL to transform into a tropic system. It can happen, but not too often.
Thats what blobs do...they sit there for several days and develop
The NHC has called some systems deadfish before, only to have them form later on. I won't write anything off in my mind unless I'm absolutely sure there is just no chance at all for it to do anything. I say that b/c after last year, I think anything is possible! lol
True Quake, but as forecasters we have to forget about last year!..LOL I know that sounds crazy, but its true. There may never be another 2005. A year like that clouds our judgement as forecasters.
316. 0741
the area east of bahamas look alive it have not dead out yet it look like might be getting more organized on sat pic tonight
will the PR blob bring rain to FL over the next few days or will it track more north?
I have been lurking around this blog since early 2004, but I have not posted much. Ricderr, you stated that people who post what they see without links or scientific proof are doing nothing other than speculating. I would agree and if I posted more I would fall into that category, but without their speculation no-one who has more experience will be able to comment and explain. Correct me if I'm wrong, but from my understanding we learn more from debating than setting back and just listening.

Now, of course, StormTop falls into a different category than just speculating his beliefs for others to comment on to further his knowledge. He thinks he is right (without links and scientific data) and is not willing to listen to others. Now I'm and not saying this because I just learned of Stormtop and his remarks on this blog, I've heard his criticism towards others (such as Lefty, weatherguy, and others) since early 2004.

Now trust me, I hope haven't offended anyone but that's the way I see it. Please, anyone, feel free to respond and give me your input on what I stated.
shear vs. tc probability map:
HereLink is a description of the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product. It is a statistical product. Note that it says formation is more probable over interior Mexico than most of the ocean. Note that the probabilities are low for the most part. That 10% in the eastern pacific seems interesting.
I don't think so WW, 96L will be a no show also. Not quite ready, by the time it is shear will get it.
They're saying it's going to go more NW or NNW...though it is moving very slowly if at all...has not moved since yesterday, so who knows where exactly it will go.
More rain to us South Beach Dude
The GFS says yes it will bring rain to Florida, the NAM says no. I think it will.

If you look at both systems tonite, they are in the perfect areas. You can see what light shear does to a system.
But, the area North of PR is still in the Upper Levels so no development.
Tarpville...haha like that name...bunch of places on the Gulf coast are definitely that! =]

You can say whatever you want about ST and it won't offend anyone...he's disappeared for now so it's safe. Just don't feed the bear while he is out of his cave or he might eat someone :-P
Hardly any UL winds with PR Blob. Rain, Rain and more Rain.
According to the link, TCFPP starts by eliminating areas where:


Maximum climatological SST < 21 degree C
Latitude < 5 degrees north
Areas that are 100% over land
Areas that already contain a tropical cyclone
850 hPa Circulation < -5 kt
Vertical Shear > 65 kt
Vertical Instability < -8 degrees C
GOES cold pixel count = 0%
GOES brightness temperature > -23 degrees C

Quikscat of NW of PR ULL. Totally un impressive. I agree with ,03 on some rain from that possibly coming here (FL). The fire ants started making a move for high ground today.
Might be due to 96 skye, joking of course, but been a while since I seen a wave like this.
skypony... can you post the link for the source of the quickscats...i would like to be able to pull them up on my own
Quakeman55, I would agree that a bunch of places on the Gulf Coast are that, but actually I'm from the East Coast of Florida myself. We, on the East Coast of Florida, had our dance with the Devil (Frances and Jeanne) in 2004. I Hope it never happens again and wouldn't wish on anyone. By the way, I'm glad you like the name the majority of people on my street had the same name, but it was in blue. I would also agree not to feed the bear why he's out of his cage because he could try to eat(someone) me, but I promise you he would spit me out.
NHC 10:30 update, nothing but the same, quiet week ahead according to them.

Good night everyone!
Granted unimpressive now, but this is your classic wave in great conditions right now. That far out I don't even look at maps, just the satalites.
can someone define what a "high denisty wind" for me.
I have to give the blob north of Hispaniola some credit; the convection has held together now for over 24 hours, without showing any signs diminishing. You have to always keep a wary eye on these type systems that don't go away. Don't take me wrong, I'm not calling for this area to form into anything, as of now. But if this area continues to persist, with the continued deep convection tonight and into tomorrow, the surface pressures may begin to fall and a LLC could form. How many times have we seen this scenerio play out???
Quikscat link, though I don't keep it bookmarked as such. I bookmark this page (Quikscat link is at the bottom), with the major models, phase analysis & other great links.
Well said GetReal and WNstorm - if things keep up it may slowly develop. Good night all. Prayers for all during the hurricane season.
jphurricane2006, does the 96L have a chance??
Solar-Equator ITCZ Activity at CONUS Sunset:

Evening Thunderstorms Stir Up:

Persons using FIREFOX freeware web-browser can remove pictures from pages with an optional extention: Nuke Anything. I use it to remove flashing ads and sales messages I don't want to look at, but you can use it to not see any images that I upload that you don't want to look at. I think there is something to learn from looking at these images of the planetary heartbeats.

Check back tomorrow FLweather, it is looking good now, but it is supposed to encounter some pretty high shear tomorrow, my call is no.
progressivepulse, what if it gets intesified into a depression or stronger asap. will it be able to fight off the shear
AMO Vs Global Warming On Hurricane Activity
From since the start of 1995 upon until the present there has been increase hurricane activity in the Atlantic and rare formations as seen above for Cyclone Catarina. There are currently to theories to explain the increase activity. There is the theory of Global Warming and NOAAs explanation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

In your opinion, which is the more likely cause of increase hurricane activity. You can also give reasons why.

You can leave your comments at my blog.
Some models seem to be forecasting more shear than others, and of course that could always change with future model runs. We won't know for sure about any shear effects until it starts to impact it, if it even does. Just a wait and see kind of thing. Just by looking at the satellite, I really don't see why shear would all of the sudden increase to begin with.
been tracking the "blob"east of the Bahama's for days. Almost since it earliest conception and nothing has affected or slowed its progress as yet. will watch closely to see how much this resembles other TD's that have passed over the warmer waters in this area.
on the 96L. If I am correct none of the models have forecasted it to become a depression yet, not even the CMC which has been over stregthening every invest the season so far. That has got to mean something. Maybe a depression, but ripped to shreds by mid week.
well ill admit that the NHC isn't right about everything all the time. I was just pointing out that none of the models develop it. Even the whacky ones. They can process a lot more info than we can, so thats got to be taken into consideration.
But even without the models developing it i would still stick my sort of guess/ forecast.
I believe the NHC also said our UUL would be dead by now too.
has anybody seen the latest infrared satellite on 96 L? From my observation, only an observation, not an educated guess, I think those cloud tops have rapped around the apparent low center, I'm not sure, any other opinions?
look at the 3:45 UTC loop frame
i see what your talking about bocaman. In the last frames it does look like an "eye" has formed. I dont think it is though, just the way the clouds are firing up..in a couple more frames i believe that "eye" will get covered with convection.
Yeah bama, I can't call that thing an eye haha but I would say that this is the first time I've really seen some deep convection wrap around the center of the wave. Where are you locates, I live in S. FLorida now, but I'm a good ole boy from Tallahassee
bocaman i live in mobile. nice and dry around recently
for the record i dont think that is an eye...just looks like one if you let squint your eyes a bit and stand on you left leg..well you get the idea
Mobile, wow thats a cool place, USS Alabama and that famous I-10 tunnel, hahaha, I used to go down to the beaches of Pensacola and Destin and Panama City all the time, redneck riviera, and some great fishing
lastest quickstat still doesnt show much if i am reading in correctly...Link
I understand that
problem is you can only see the USS Alabama so many times before you can be the one giving the tours. As for those tunnels the make for nice 25 mph commute every rush hour LOL! But those beaches you named are nice!!
Yep, all winds still out of the east there, there are no changes in the directions of those winds, all pretty much are 90's
yea i justed started looking at the quickstat tonight...so it might take me a bit before im comfortable reading them. It cant be as reading just the wind direction
alright...im going to sleep..i'll check in in the morning. All have a great night!!
yeah, these things can be difficult to understand, but with other storms, the winds rotate around the center or eye and you can see that on a quickstat with a regualr storm out there. This system has no winds coming out of any other direction but the east for at least right now.
Anyone can clearly see, looking at the water vapor loops of the blob north of Hispaniola, that the system is an ULL. The center of the ULL is clearly visible, and is located about 60 miles N of Hispaniola. The ULL center appears to be nearly stationary. There is no sign yet of the ULL trying to work itself down to the surface, as of this moment.
With current wind shear conditions and high pressure there doesn't seem to be any sign of tropical system development. The blob in the caribbean shows no outflow or even the beginnings of cyclonic rotation. The only tropical feature it shows is what appears to be some diurnal stregthening.
Good evening guys just got in...

The Canadian model cmc is now picking up on the system better than its previus runs, its not developing it but brings it across the eastern Caribbean as a strong tropical wave developing it as it gets to the western Caribbean, that's a step above its 12z run when it barely showed a tropical wave coming into the eartern Caribbean.

Here is a IR loop of 96L.

Here are some model runs for 96L
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I will say this.... global models are not that good at working with tropical cyclones. Over the years they have been improved for there invisible canes. But instead now have the problem of not developing/closing off low pressure area's. Another thing is global models even showing a strong wave like system can be a tropical storm for that reason. I'v seen it many of times. So it even developing it to the point of it is is impressive. If the ECMWF was showing development that would be incredible.
Iam seeing some slow developement with 96L.

2:05AM Discussion NHC.

9N-12N BETWEEN 39W-45W

Yeah the CMC does show a good run going on...develops it and takes it into the Caribbean. I'm gonna go check the others right quick too.
It even wants to develop the PR blob and take it towards the SE coast. That is less likely as we know it does tend to overdevelop things out there. I'd say the 96L invest development is more believable though.
Early - Cycle Intensity Guidance
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Guys iam about to go to bed!But before i go i just i just finished looking at the shear tendency loop and you can clearly see that the area of higher shear just to the west of this system before the Leeward Islands, is moving westward just ahead of the system, this tells me that is in response to the anticyclonic flow above 96L, so by the time 96L gets to that spot it should be gone by then if the anticyclonic flow stays above it.

be back tommorow.good nite adrian

convection continues to flare with 96L.the morning hours will be key.
Yeah that's what I've been thinking too hurricane23...
I think the morning hours from about 6am-12pm noon time will be key to see if it can hold together.
According to the CMC and GFS shear maps (moreso with the GFS), the low-shear area will accompany 96L on its trek westbound...at least for a few days anyway. After that, high shear forecast in the Caribbean could be different, especially if there is a good anticyclonic flow around the system, which is already evident on its northern side.
going to bed.....be back tommorow morning.
Eh slightly...I'd estimate it to be on a 280 degree overall heading right now.
Do I see a vortex?? 11N 42.5W on the 6:45UTC frame
looks like, and I say it looks, from just observation like a LLC.
what do you say quakeman??
I agree with the 280 heading
Oh it does already have an LLC heading...NHC said in their discussion that there is a 1011 MB low associated with it...was seen on visible imagery earlier today. Though just now I can almost see it on IR imagery as well, and it is getting a better shape, becoming more consolidated with what appears to be some spiral banding going on. I wouldn't be surprised if it is upgraded to depression status later on today.
Yeah the north side of it definitely needs to fill in a little bit though, most of the deep convection is on the SW side
It looks like some dry air has infiltrated the eastern and northern part of the disturbance
Maybe a little...I am sure there will be some more convection flaring up before long though.
yeah, I think that the crucial point for this storm will be for it to hold together from this time until about 5:00 this afternoon, If it maintains, or even gains more convection throughout these next 12 hours, we may see a tropical depression. I'm off to bed.
The Evening's Storm Damages: Consider it light for the year 2006, which brings 5 tornadoes per day.

0000 hours July 10, 2006 Zulu time, 7 pm WST, 8 MST, 9 CST, 10 pm EST.

What happened since the top and bottom pictures.

0600 hours Zulu time, 11 pm WST, 12 MST, 1 CST, 2 pm EST.

Those Tornadoes in Colorado tonight were in Acapulco the noon before.
Interesting that the worst shear seems to move west ahead of 96L. 96L never is under it.
A question came to me this morning when my dog dropped a sea shell into my cup of coffee and I didn't notice until I got to the last sip (bless her heart!)

...is it possible for a system to develop under another system so that when you look at satellite images, you don't see the storm underneath?
Good morning Stormy. How are things?
okay, stupid newbie question. Does dry air degrade a tropical storm??
Morning nash,
Another beautiful day in the Bay!
se ese winds at 10ish mph, pressure rising, temp rising, humidity dropping and less cloud cover. Too bad it is a Monday!

...my second cup of coffee was much better than the first!
Speaking of moving into a less favorable environment-

You can see the shear starting to impinge on the Western side of the system on the WV loop.
ooo ooo ooo ...wait, I can answer that! It was my newbie question a couple days ago. Answer is yes ...it does ...but, I can't remember the "why" part. LOL
Hmmm, interesting stuff about tropical disturbance 96L

0Z Canadian Global has it as a tropical cyclone moving WNW and approaching the Yucatan Sunday, while the 0Z GFS is

a little less aggressive, a tad slowly, a bit further North, but suggesting possible development in the Gulf this time next week

UK Met tropical guidance isn't showing development in next 72 hours.

6Z GFS seesm to try to develop it, but then destroys it as it crosses Hispaniola.
The remnants of the wave then appear to try to start redeveloping past the Yucatan.

Interesting stuff.

Yurpian Community predicts an East Pac storm, but no Atlantic Basin activity
IIRC, while dry air entrainment at mid levels can sometimes make thunderstorms extra cool, because all else being equal dry air is heavier than humid air (has to do w/ weight of diatomic nitrogen vs water) increasing the CAPE, tropical systems like a moist column at low and mid levels, and dry air will tend to evaporate water droplets that have already condensed, which cools the parcel, kind of the opposite of the normal tropical process where heat is released through condensation.

No training in met whatsoever on my part, just a lowly petroleum engineer, so take that with a few grains.
okay, so if dry air impedes a tropical storm, will this drought we've been having translate into milder storms? Or does a drought over land have nothing to do with air moisture over the water?
Probably not terrorism, but its early- explosion levels Manhattan apartment building.
hmmmm..... the CMC Model 850mb vorticity is at it again.....

the latest version has a low developing east of the bahamas, and tracking to myrtle beach in less than 3 days! LOL the gfs hints at a little something (stress LITTLE!) in about the same time period.....

ahhh.... we could use the rain! :)

also appears to have 96l crossing over jamaica in about 5 days...... but the gfdl shows no significant development....

besides alberto, has the cmc been right on anything? :)

and happy anniversary Dennis (930mb).....

oh, we also had a shark bite yesterday about 40 miles south of myrtle beach.....

have a good week everybody! :)
thelmores ....Yes, I saw that about the Bahamas. Check the vapor loop and notice a coc getting started this morning just off the Turks and Caicos. Link
No surface yet and pressures are still normal in the area.
Depends on the systems. Most tropical cyclones have a high pressure system sitting on top of them, but I think the answer to what you're asking is no. Some lows (usually extratropical ones, tropical systems do not) split up.
my blog has been update to inlcude severe weather, with radars and severe weather outlooks.

AMO Vs Global Warming On Hurricane Activity
From since the start of 1995 upon until the present there has been increase hurricane activity in the Atlantic and rare formations as seen above for Cyclone Catarina. There are currently to theories to explain the increase activity. There is the theory of Global Warming and NOAAs explanation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

In your opinion, which is the more likely cause of increase hurricane activity. You can also give reasons why.

You can leave your comments at my blog.
Dry air degrades storms because tropical cyclones derive their energy from water vapor. To explain why, we'll need some Physics 101:

-- When a gas condenses to a liquid, it releases heat.
-- When a liquid evaporates into a gas, it absorbs heat.

What happens is this - when the sun strikes the warm tropical waters, it causes evaporation (the sunlight is taken in so that the water can evaporate). When it condenses inside a tropical cyclone, it releases heat which fuels the system. Dry air = less vapor = less energy = weaker storm. Hope that helps.
That upper level low has some fairly strong convection i'd say.
Randrewl, think i see what you may be speaking of....just to the east of south caicos, and to the southwest of the upper low......

we'll have to watch this...