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Two Minor Atlantic Threat Areas; Odile a Serious Rainfall Threat for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:51 PM GMT on September 10, 2014

A tropical wave (91L) located about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite images show 91L has a moderate amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and these thunderstorms are poorly organized. The disturbance is embedded in a moist air mass, has moderately warm (SSTs) of 28°C (83°F) beneath it, and is experiencing light wind shear. These conditions favor development. The 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain light to moderate (5 - 15 knots) and the atmosphere at mid-levels of the atmosphere (between 500 - 700 mb) would remain moist this week, favoring development. All three of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation predict development of 91L over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 20% and 70%, respectively. A trough of low pressure expected to push off the U.S. East Coast early next week should induce a more northwesterly track for 91L next week, and the disturbance does not appear to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands or U.S. East Coast. It remains to be seen if 91L will be a threat to Bermuda or the Canadian Maritime Provinces late next week.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Invest 91L 600 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands at 8 am EDT September 10, 2014.

Bahamas disturbance 92L very disorganized
A weak area of low pressure over the Bahamas (92L) is bringing a few heavy rain showers to the islands, but this this activity is disorganized. Although wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots and ocean temperatures are a very warm 30°C (86°F), the presence of dry air and cold air aloft associated with an upper level low will allow only slow development of the disturbance as it drifts westwards at 5 - 10 mph. The disturbance should move over Florida on Friday and emerge over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, bringing rains of 1 - 3" to much of Florida. None of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis develop the disturbance. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 10% and 20%, respectively.

Tropical Storm Odile a serious flooding threat for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Odile formed on Wednesday morning a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco. Satellite loops show that Odile has an imposing area of heavy thunderstorms that are steadily organizing, and this storm represents a serious rainfall threat to the Pacific coast of Mexico. The slow-moving storm will be capable of dumping 5 - 10" of rain along the coast from Acapulco to Puerto Vallarta beginning on Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall along the track of Odile from the 06Z (2 am EDT) September 10, 2014 run of the GFDL model. The model predicted that TD 15-E would be a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane as it brushed the coast of Mexico this week, bringing widespread rains of 8 - 16" along the coast from Acapulco to Manzanillo. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Moisture from Hurricane Norbert and Tropical Storm Dolly brings heavy rains to U.S.
The counter-clockwise flow of air around Hurricane Norbert, which dissipated off the coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula over the weekend, pulled moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly and from the tropical Eastern Pacific northwards into Northern Mexico and Southern Arizona, bringing epic rainfall amounts and severe flooding on Monday. According to Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, the official weather site at Phoenix’s Sky Harbor International Airport has its rainiest day in recorded history on Monday, with 3.29” falling. Moisture from Norbert also helped contribute to torrential rains that affected Northern Missouri on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As of 8 am EDT Wednesday, 10.54" was recorded in 12 hours in Browning, MO, with 9.61" inches falling at Chillicothe. Moisture from Norbert will spread all the way into Michigan's Upper Peninsula on Wednesday afternoon, and an Areal Flood Watch is posted there for flooding rains of 1 - 3".


Figure 3. The remnants of Hurricane Norbert lie off the coast of Baja, Mexico at 7 pm EDT September 9, 2014, in this photo taken from the International Space Station by Reid Wiseman.

WSI's Mike Ventrice has a technical post on the Atlantic hurricane outlook for the next two weeks at the WSI WeatherWise blog.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has a more detailed look at the tropics as well as a discussion of the record rainfall in Arizona yesterday in his latest post.

Jeff Masters
epic monsoon storm of 2014
epic monsoon storm of 2014
In this pic note the ripples in the water from a sudden surge of more water
the great monsoon storm of 2014
the great monsoon storm of 2014
Roadway flooded this area has received four plus ins of rain in the last 48 hours

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Low just east of the Bahamas you can see it good on here
Link
Yawn, stretch....
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT WED 10 SEPTEMBER 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-102

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: NASA 872 RESEARCH FLIGHT AT 12/2200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK; FIX TROPICAL STORM ODILE
NEAR 15.9N 103.3W AT 12/1900Z.
Thanks Doc !!!
Thanks Dr. The Bahamas area really dried out overnight; don't see any chances of tropical development in the current shape unless some concentrated convection starts to fire again before reaching Florida as a rain event.

%uFFFD
TD 15-E WILL be a tropical storm by 11am
Good morning fellow weather fanatics.

I don't know about you but I'm watching the ULL to the southeast of Bermuda. Something seems kind of suspicious about it. I see some very weak low level vortices associated with it.

BTW thanks for the new post Dr. Jeff Masters.
Anyone interested in the Blob south of WKC ???

Doc, it looks like after TD15E floods Mexico, it could bring more heavy rains to the US southwest.

The Gulf of California has some warm waters.




Anything going on with the low in the Bahamas???,I don't see a lot of convention?,our local Met's and the some of the Models are hinting a low over South Florida,with a lot of rain for Friday and Saturday,unless convention over the Bahamas pick-up later today and tomorrow?
Looks like the Bahamas low is just east of West Palm Beach.
Quoting 5. Grothar:


Nice......BLOB


Dusty Springfield's "I Just Don't Know What to Do with Myself" comes to mind.

Quoting 10. Tornado6042008X:

Good morning fellow weather fanatics.

I don't know about you but I'm watching the ULL to the southeast of Bermuda. Something seems kind of suspicious about it. I see some very weak low level vortices associated with it.


It's the most interesting thing out there. Boy, are we desperate.



I just learned how to post an animated gif
Quoting 11. VR46L:

Anyone interested in the Blob south of WKC ???




Hey, V. Long time no talk. How you doing?

Looking East towards Africa, ITCZ starting to look a little more decent closer to Cv Islands but still "missing" in the Central Atlantic on the peak day of the season.......................




Storms that go up the Gulf of California usually stay stronger for longer due to the much warmer waters.

From the Previous Blog

The CMC may not be all that crazy..it does have model support with the UKMET..

same time frame unfortunately the UKMET only runs out to 144 hours so not sure what it does with the Low as the CMC..





Quoting 5. Grothar:




Grothar: Good Morning, is this the blob some folks where talking about it was gonna go in to Mexico? It really looks bad out there in the Atlantic and it being the peak of the season. I have gave up, I don't think where gonna get anything from this point on. Which that is a good thing another year with out destruction, death or any kinda of losses. We need this..

Sheri




are we going to have invest 92L SOON yes or no
Tropical Storm ODILE
8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 10
Location: 14.9°N 102.9°W
Moving: NW at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Quoting 25. hurricanes2018:





are we going to have invest 92L SOON yes or no
probably not until it gets into the gulf
ULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ODILE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 102.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST. ODILE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
Quoting 23. ncstorm:

From the Previous Blog

The CMC may not be all that crazy..it does have model support with the UKMET..

same time frame unfortunately the UKMET only runs out to 144 hours so not sure what it does with the Low as the CMC..






well usually anything in that part of the gulf, at this time of year..usually either goes into the upper gulfg coast or back to the panhandle and back out to the atlantic...im waiting for the Nam in a couple of days..see what it says.
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014

Deep convection has increased to the west of the center during the
past few hours, and microwave images show increasing organization
of the low-level center. Dvorak classifications were 3.0/45 kt
from TAFB and 2.0/30 kt from SAB. Using a blend of these estimates
yields an initial wind speed of 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical
Storm Odile.

Odile has been moving slowly northwestward for the last several
hours, and a continued northwestward or north-northwestward drift
is forecast during the next day or two while the cyclone remains in
weak steering currents. In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone is anticipated
to feel more influence from mid-level ridging to its north and
northeast, and that should cause Odile to move at a faster pace
to the northwest. Although the models are in fair agreement on
this overall scenario, the big question is how close to the
southwestern coast of Mexico does the center of the storm get. The
ECMWF and HWRF models are on the right side of the guidance and
bring the center of Odile very near or over the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Conversely, the GFS and GFS ensemble mean,
which are on the left side of the guidance, keep the center of Odile
well offshore. The NHC track forecast is again between these
solutions and brings Odile just off of southwestern Mexico in
3 to 4 days, and near the southern Baja peninsula by the end of the
forecast period.

Steady strengthening is expected for at least the next few days
while the storm remains in low to moderate shear, a highly moist
environment, and over very warm 30 C water. The only limiting
factor could be land interaction. The NHC intensity forecast shows
a slightly faster rate of strengthening than the previous one, but
is lower than the SHIPS guidance.

A tropical storm watch could be needed for a portion of the coast of
southwestern Mexico later today. Regardless, locally heavy rains
are possible across that area later this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 14.9N 102.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 15.1N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 15.3N 103.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 15.5N 103.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 15.9N 103.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 17.6N 104.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 20.9N 107.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W 85 KT 100 MPH


winds 100 mph!!
Quoting 11. VR46L:

Anyone interested in the Blob south of WKC ???






Took this last night. Looks like the convection south of us here in Cayman is being caused by a buildup of air from the fast moving trades in the central Caribbean.
south florida already getting some of its rains..and this could go on for days,hope the rivers and streams down there arent going to go to flood stage....im guessing this system will be a good rain maker as it crosses the state.


Special weather statement in effect

Thunderstorms with very heavy downpours and gusty winds possible this afternoon and tonight.

An early fall type of low pressure system over Iowa will track northeastward towards the Great Lakes today. This moisture laden low is expected to drag a fairly sharp cold front across Southern Ontario tonight. Thunderstorms with very heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible late today and tonight and could give local rainfall amounts near 40 mm.

The cold front will sweep out the moisture laden airmass by Thursday morning and considerably cooler air will arrive in its wake.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.

Thanks Doc.
Quoting 33. Saltydogbwi1:





Took this last night. Looks like the convection south of us here in Cayman is being caused by a buildup of air from the fast moving trades in the central Caribbean.

Incredible picture!
Quoting 24. catastropheadjuster:



Grothar: Good Morning, is this the blob some folks where talking about it was gonna go in to Mexico? It really looks bad out there in the Atlantic and it being the peak of the season. I have gave up, I don't think where gonna get anything from this point on. Which that is a good thing another year with out destruction, death or any kinda of losses. We need this..

Sheri


I think the blob in the Caribbean might eventually make its way into the BOC. The little non-blob in the Bahamas might make it into the Gulf. Neither look like much at the moment.
Quoting 38. cRRKampen:


Incredible picture!


Thanks It's a bit pixelated because the upload is not the full resolution pic. I thought it was kind of cool the way the fishermans rod tip was bent towards the lightning bolt.
The upper Keys have been seeing quite a bit of action this morning.
Quoting toddbizz:
HAARP........????? It's been 10 years since South Florida has seen anything remotely close to Francis...Jean....Wilma....all the rest were pathetic blobs and fish storms.....10 years....yes it's a long shot but weather manipulation exists....the govt does it and the military uses it as a weapon....protect the insurance companies from a multi-billion dollar disaster....just food for thought....the Atlantic has been shut down for the past decade while the rest of the world's oceans fire up....the Atlantic is done....wow did I say that ?????


Errmm.. no. Total nonsense. It's only been the last two years that have had relatively quite conditions. 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012 were all very active and destructive hurricane seasons. Do Gustav, Ike, Irene, Isaac, and Sandy ring a bell to you? All of those have impacted the United States since 2005.
Quoting 32. toddbizz:

HAARP........?????

No. Not even in the most fevered dream of the most rabid conspiracy theorist...

44. 7544
looks like you can see the naked spin on the bahamas system today going west

also further east is another spin is that going to head west too can it try to form too? tia

s
Quoting 1. SFLWeatherman:

Low just east of the Bahamas you can see it good on here
Link
Quoting Grothar:
Storms that go up the Gulf of California usually stay stronger for longer due to the much warmer waters.

Assuming it happens as the model predicts, it will be the best chance that southern California has seen for a landfalling tropical cyclone in many decades.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Errmm.. no. Total nonsense. It's only been the last two years that have had relatively quite conditions. 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012 were all very active and destructive hurricane seasons. Do Gustav, Ike, Irene, and Sandy ring a bell to you? All of those have impacted the United States since 2005.
I blame all this on Alcoa and their excessive production of tinfoil lately...

*Click for loop



Doubtful, but ya never know.
Quoting 32. toddbizz:

HAARP........????? It's been 10 years since South Florida has seen anything remotely close to Francis...Jean....Wilma....all the rest were pathetic blobs and fish storms.....10 years....yes it's a long shot but weather manipulation exists....the govt does it and the military uses it as a weapon....protect the insurance companies from a multi-billion dollar disaster....just food for thought....the Atlantic has been shut down for the past decade while the rest of the world's oceans fire up....the Atlantic is done....wow did I say that ?????

Take off your tin foil hat.
Does anyone think this storm could go up the gulf and affect the sw us?
Quoting 47. GatorWX:
Doubtful, but ya never know.


It is moving in to an area of lower shear, so it may be able to work down a little further through tonight. That and the Carib blob are the only slightly interesting things in the Atl ATM.
Quoting 50. AztecCe:

Does anyone think this storm could go up the gulf and affect the sw us?


Decent spread on the models, but it is possible.

Quoting 45. sar2401:

Assuming it happens as the model predicts, it will be the best chance that southern California has seen for a landfalling tropical cyclone in many decades.


I think Hurricane Nora from 1997 was the last storm to enter California and Arizona as a TS. Nora didn't shoot the gulf, though. At least not like Odile could.
Quoting 49. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Take off your tin foil hat.
How did the Government accomplish this? Did they place extra sand in the Sahara to increase its size to amplify SAL? Did they send our Sub fleet to the South Atlantic to dump ice and lower the sea temperatures? What are you talking about?
Quoting 39. Grothar:



I think the blob in the Caribbean might eventually make its way into the BOC. The little non-blob in the Bahamas might make it into the Gulf. Neither look like much at the moment.


Surprised there are no Centexians on this AM.. we have rain forecast for 8 solid days.
Feel like I'm searching for life on Mars lol.

N atl, south of Canadian Maritimes. Believe it's our low that rolled off NC/VA.
*Click for loop
Quoting 7544:
looks like you can see the naked spin on the bahamas system today going west

also further east is another spin is that going to head west too can it try to form too? tia

s
The small area of whoers in the Gulf to the west of Florida is associated with the tail end of a week front and a tropical wave. It should continue to move west toward the Yucatan. No models develop it and there's no dynamics in the Gulf to develop it. Given the flat pressure gradient across the area it will take several days for this feature to slowly move west.
Former Army General Lambasts Oil Industry for 'Hijacking' Democracy
By Zoë Schlanger
Filed: 9/9/14 at 6:54 AM




After a BP executive lambasted “opportunistic” environmentalists and journalistic “sensationalism” from a podium in front of hundreds of environmental journalists in a New Orleans ballroom Wednesday evening, Russel Honore could not hide his disgust. Taking the podium some time after, Honore, a retired U.S. Army Lieutenant General, had harsh words for the oil and gas industry. In the four years that has passed since the BP oil spill, Honore has run out of patience with energy companies that he says have “hijacked” his state.

“They have hijacked our damn democracy. They lobby, they write the laws.”

Environmental impacts of the BP spill and other energy activities should not be downplayed, he said. “Regardless of what that kemo-sabe told you, that dolphin took a hit” from the Gulf oil disaster, Honore said, referring to Geoff Morrell, the BP communications executive who spoke before him.

Quoting 51. StormJunkie:



It is moving in to an area of lower shear, so it may be able to work down a little further through tonight. That and the Carib blob are the only slightly interesting things in the Atl ATM.


I think 91 has a pretty good chance. It's carrying a good amount of liquid with it, something we haven't seen too often. Needs to break away from the monsoon trof and start consolidating. Pretty stretched looking on vis.


Thanks for the update Dr. Masters,
... this sums up the 2014 season ... "the presence of dry air"
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Special weather statement in effect

Thunderstorms with very heavy downpours and gusty winds possible this afternoon and tonight.

An early fall type of low pressure system over Iowa will track northeastward towards the Great Lakes today. This moisture laden low is expected to drag a fairly sharp cold front across Southern Ontario tonight. Thunderstorms with very heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible late today and tonight and could give local rainfall amounts near 40 mm.

The cold front will sweep out the moisture laden airmass by Thursday morning and considerably cooler air will arrive in its wake.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.

It seems that the rainfall patterns this year have all the tropical moisture in the NE, SW, and Canada while the desert SW has moved over into the deep South. My cactus garden looks fabulous this year. It's the first time I've been able to get my beavertails to flower. I normally have to take it under the porch to prevent root rot from all the rain.

Something's wrong with this picture.
12z GFS continues to weaken the 850mb vort through 33hrs, but has it headed toward extreme S Fl. Possibly even approaching the straits.

Quoting 32. toddbizz:

HAARP........????? It's been 10 years since South Florida has seen anything remotely close to Francis...Jean....Wilma....all the rest were pathetic blobs and fish storms.....10 years....yes it's a long shot but weather manipulation exists....the govt does it and the military uses it as a weapon....protect the insurance companies from a multi-billion dollar disaster....just food for thought....the Atlantic has been shut down for the past decade while the rest of the world's oceans fire up....the Atlantic is done....wow did I say that ?????

It is something to think about. Not likely, but definitely a possibility. We go back to Isaac a couple years back. He was on a collision course to NOLA pegged as a category 3 by all the models. As soon as he entered the Gulf, the peculiar high altitude contrails began to appear on MODIS high resolution visible satellite. At the same time, every time he was close to closing his core and ready to fire deep convection, the cloud tops cooled and the inner core was disrupted. This happened time and time again. He was never able close off an solid inner core and explode. Seeding with sodium iodine was explain this. And he was headed to New Orleans. The levies still were not completed. And guess what??? The city AGAIN failed to evacuate all the residents. No one could contend with such a disaster again, so this was the solution. And sure enough the storm spread out with diameter instead of intensifying from within the inner core. NOLA avoid another disaster, and rain was welcomed to the severe drought regions. Residents up and down the Gulf Coast reported strange halos around the sun and moon, not associated with normal sundog activity. If the program either by the government, military, or even private wealthy entities was implemented, then it succeeded in my opinion.

Again, probably not likely, but can't be ruled out.
Quoting GatorWX:


I think 91 has a pretty good chance. It's carrying a good amount of liquid with it, something we haven't seen too often. Needs to break away from the monsoon trof and start consolidating. Pretty stretched looking on vis.


I don't think 91L is going poof. I don't think it's going to be a monster storm but it had a good shot at becoming a cat 1 hurricane, recurving way to the east of Bermuda. It might even make it to cat 2 as it moves further north. It probably has the best conditions we are going to see for the rest of 2014 for an African wave. If 91L doesn't develop, we can kiss anything else coming from that part of the world goodbye.
If any storm was in the experimental phases of manipulating the weather or modifying systems, Isaac was one of them. That storm acted very abnormal relative to the conditions that very favorable at the time in the GOM.
Pumping 20 Million Tons of CO2 a day into a closed system will alter the solutions in a manner not unforeseen.

Werd'

I will tell you one thing. The days of seeing anything like Katrina or those intense category 4 or 5 storms in the Gulf are long gone....
Quoting 32. toddbizz:

HAARP........????? It's been 10 years since South Florida has seen anything remotely close to Francis...Jean....Wilma....all the rest were pathetic blobs and fish storms.....10 years....yes it's a long shot but weather manipulation exists....the govt does it and the military uses it as a weapon....protect the insurance companies from a multi-billion dollar disaster....just food for thought....the Atlantic has been shut down for the past decade while the rest of the world's oceans fire up....the Atlantic is done....wow did I say that ?????
Its a Snow Day here so I'll take a stab at it.... One of the issues you miss here is that the insurance companies are all international ('Global' for the thin metal toque crowd).. so if everywhere is else 'firing up' and getting smashed by the storms that we are avoiding, the Insurance companies still have to pay, whether its in Tampa or Brisbane. make sense?






Hopefully Mr Hayward got his life back.
Isaac flooded 20K Homes in Se. Louisiana outside the Levee Protections system in Braitwaithe and in Laplace way above NOLA .

Quoting 70. Patrap:

Pumping 20 Million Tons of CO2 a day into a closed system will alter the solutions in a manner not unforeseen.

Werd'



At the rate the CO2 emissions are being belched into the atmosphere every day, it is no wonder why dry air is so prevalent and we are seeing weather patterns that are very bizarre.

This ain't your grandparents climate anymore....
Quoting CumberlandPlateau:
If any storm was in the experimental phases of manipulating the weather or modifying systems, Isaac was one of them. That storm acted very abnormal relative to the conditions that very favorable at the time in the GOM.


That's not really true. Conditions in the GOMEX were not favorable for Isaac's intensification. Mid-level dry air wrapped itself into the core, causing Isaac to never really to be able to establish an inner core for intensification.
The Dead Zones in the Gulf are from Mississippi RIver Nitrates and Farmland Phosphates runoff mostly, not BP, .............for clarity.
Quoting 78. CybrTeddy:



That's not really true. Conditions in the GOMEX were not favorable, not totally, for Isaac's intensification. Mid-level dry air wrapped itself into the core, causing Isaac to never really to be able to establish an inner core for intensification.

Where did the mid level dry air originate from?


The chem-trails doooooddddd

Killin hurricanes and stuff mannnn

Like woah

*hippie voice*
Now that BahamaBlob looks sick, 91L is a day or three from developing and a threat to nobody but Bermuda, time to post snow images of Texas and discuss chances of severe weather North of the Ohio River.




Just a suggestion.

2004 Christmas snow miracle in Galveston.

Quoting CumberlandPlateau:

What is worse. 1 comment that you don't agree with or 15748 comments with nonsense? Opinions welcome of course Mr. Police Officer.
That was an opinion. If you chose to post nonsense, you get opinions. I have the feeling you have been here before though.
The disturbance southeast of 91L looks very robust. is this the disturbed area that the GFS is hiting of forming into a cyclone and affecting the lesser Antilles in 8 days time.?
Quoting 70. Patrap:

Pumping 20 Million Tons of CO2 a day into a closed system will alter the solutions in a manner not unforeseen.

Werd'




Not unforeseen? So they are foreseen.
Quoting 42. CybrTeddy:



Errmm.. no. Total nonsense. It's only been the last two years that have had relatively quite conditions. 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012 were all very active and destructive hurricane seasons. Do Gustav, Ike, Irene, Isaac, and Sandy ring a bell to you? All of those have impacted the United States since 2005.

Did Gustav, Ike, Irene, Isaac, and Sandy slam into Florida? No.
Quoting 66. sar2401:

I don't think 91L is going poof. I don't think it's going to be a monster storm but it had a good shot at becoming a cat 1 hurricane, recurving way to the east of Bermuda. It might even make it to cat 2 as it moves further north. It probably has the best conditions we are going to see for the rest of 2014 for an African wave. If 91L doesn't develop, we can kiss anything else coming from that part of the world goodbye.


I rather like its chances too I wouldn't be too surprised it broke away from trof and struggled though either. Pretty stable atmosphere surrounding it. We'll see. It's still firmly embedded in the trof atm.

Quoting CumberlandPlateau:

Where did the mid level dry air originate from?


The CONUS, Isaac wrapped in dry air that was present over the United States as it approached the coastline. Katrina did the same thing. Isaac also had significantly more land interaction than Katrina did, thus entered the Gulf as a significantly weaker storm. See below, note the abundance of dry air over the Untied States, see how it got wrapped into the circulation?

Quoting 83. sar2401:

That was an opinion. If you chose to post nonsense, you get opinions. I have the feeling you have been here before though.


Word
OK, more fun potential in HAARP and Florida's lack of hurricanes.

But why did they hit NY/NJ with Sandy?
Quoting CumberlandPlateau:

Where did the mid level dry air originate from?
Where do you think dry air originates from?
Quoting CumberlandPlateau:

Did Gustav, Ike, Irene, Isaac, and Sandy slam into Florida? No.


Did I say they did? No. I was responding to the point "the Atlantic has been shut down for the past decade while the rest of the world's oceans fire up....the Atlantic is done..." which is total nonsense.
Quoting 88. CybrTeddy:



The CONUS, Isaac wrapped in dry air that was present over the United States as it approached the coastline. Katrina did the same thing. Isaac also had significantly more land interaction than Katrina did, thus entered the Gulf as a significantly weaker storm. See below, note the abundance of dry air over the Untied States, see how it got wrapped into the circulation?




Apply this first;)
Quoting 76. Patrap:

Isaac flooded 20K Homes in Se. Louisiana outside the Levee Protections system in Braitwaithe and in Laplace way above NOLA .




Isaac also flooded a large area in Western Palm Beach county Florida (referred to as the "western communities"). The acreage area received over 20 inches of rain in a 20 hour period due to a freight train line of storms extending North to South all the way to Cuba. While water didn't get high enough to flood homes, thousands were stranded for upwards of 5 days waiting for the waters to recede.
Quoting FBMinFL:


Not unforeseen? So they are foreseen.
Werd'
Quoting 91. sar2401:

Where do you think dry air originates from?



Ugh the government, duh sar

(Sarcasm)
Quoting 86. CumberlandPlateau:


Did Gustav, Ike, Irene, Isaac, and Sandy slam into Florida? No.


Isaac didn't slam into Florida but it did cause significant impact as it moved nearby as a TS. Isaac flooded a large area in Western Palm Beach county Florida (referred to as the "western communities"). The acreage area received over 20 inches of rain in a 20 hour period due to a freight train line of storms extending North to South all the way to Cuba. While water didn't get high enough to flood homes, thousands were stranded for upwards of 5 days waiting for the waters to recede.
WET DAY AHEAD ...

Quoting 79. Patrap:

The Dead Zones in the Gulf are from Mississippi RIver Nitrates and Farmland Phosphates runoff mostly, not BP, .............for clarity.


I know that, but you have to assume, with the findings from USF and others, that it has certainly contributed at least temporarily. USF found essentially an enormous shelf of oil suspended about 200 m below the surface assumed to have been sunk by the sprayed Corexit.
Quoting EdMahmoud:
OK, more fun potential in HAARP and Florida's lack of hurricanes.

But why did they hit NY/NJ with Sandy?
Simple. They're blue states. Wait. That only worked when we had Bush...OK, it was a software error then.
Quoting 76. Patrap:

Isaac flooded 20K Homes in Se. Louisiana outside the Levee Protections system in Braitwaithe and in Laplace way above NOLA .




Sure did. And many of the homeowners in LaPlace had just been told by the banks that they were no longer recommending carrying flood insurance. So hundreds of them dropped flood insurance 6 months before Isaac.

Check your insurance carefully, folks. "Tis the season.
Quoting weatherh98:



Ugh the government, duh sar

(Sarcasm)
I thought was just hot air. Well, I guess hot air is generally dry air, so you might be right. I'd just like to get the phone number of this outfit so I could order up some rain for my lawn. They've spent enough time on the rest of the country, and I do pay my taxes.
If CumberlandPlateau is stupid enough to seriously believe the USA government is modifying the atmosphere to stop hurricanes in the Gulf, there's really no point in arguing with him/her.
Quoting GatorWX:


I know that, but you have to assume, with the findings from USF and others, that it has certainly contributed at least temporarily. USF found essentially an enormous shelf of oil suspended about 200 m below the surface assumed to have been sunk by the sprayed Corexit.
I wonder how much oil there was before BP? I used to get an awful lot of oil on my hull when I'd transit the Gulf, and there were a lot of floating tar balls, all long before the blowout. There are something like 10,000 active seeps in the Gulf.
106. JRRP

A hurricane inside Africa jejeje
Norbert still looks like a hurricane sometimes :P
Quoting 103. sar2401:

I thought was just hot air. Well, I guess hot air is generally dry air, so you might be right. I'd just like to get the phone number of this outfit so I could order up some rain for my lawn. They've spent enough time on the rest of the country, and I do pay my taxes.

South Louisiana is awfully hot

I'll a need a cold front and some snow next week, you think they can take care of that for me
Quoting 88. CybrTeddy:



The CONUS, Isaac wrapped in dry air that was present over the United States as it approached the coastline. Katrina did the same thing. Isaac also had significantly more land interaction than Katrina did, thus entered the Gulf as a significantly weaker storm. See below, note the abundance of dry air over the Untied States, see how it got wrapped into the circulation?



It also became entrained into the circulation as the storm passed over Hispaniola/Cuba, and an upper-level low over the northwestern Caribbean Sea helped to infuse more.
so in 2050 none of TWC analysts will have age...so its evident they found the fountain of youth but couldn't help Earth....thats good to know..

Dr. Ventrice's post gives me some optimism, I have noted beyond Day 10, 500 mb pattern from GFS/GEFS/Op Euro and EPS show a potential path from the Caribbean to Florida, with my main concern lack of excitement from the Euro/EPS on development. But the Albany mets and the CCKW, they have shown some skill, and seem to like Caribbean, to some degree.

Also more attention to BahamaBlob than I would have thought. I doubt it does much, but even a TD into Alabama or Mississippi would provide great excitement on the blog.



Yeah, it may be a bit early to Hotlink Texas snow pictures, when Florida has proven itself as a hurricane magnet into mid-November, but while I hate our brutal Winters, I do love the snow.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION ON THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO
THE EAST OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
STRONG ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. AS IT DOES...THE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH
THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES BY EARLY THURSDAY...PROBABLY WILL BEGIN
TAKE A MORE EASTWARD TURN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI
VALLEY REGION LATER IN THE DAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS FEATURE...A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES...EXTENDING ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD...AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AS AN ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE PROGRESSES
ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
WIND FIELDS WITHIN ITS WARM SECTOR MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN...WHILE
GENERALLY SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MORE SUBSTANTIVE WEAKENING OF FLOW IS FORECAST FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH...AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ITS EARLY DAY POSITION ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN A CORRIDOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT LIKELY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
PRESENCE OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WITHIN A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

...CNTRL APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...
WHILE WEAKENING OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND FIELDS IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY...MODELS APPEAR MORE SUGGESTIVE THAT MEAN SPEEDS ON THE
ORDER OF 30+ KT MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITHIN A WESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC BELT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.
THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO COINCIDE WITH A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE HEATING WHICH MAY YIELD MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
1000+ J/KG. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...AND THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF GENERATING POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

...EASTERN COLORADO...
PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME...BUT IT NOW
SEEMS AT LEAST POSSIBLE THAT LOW-LEVEL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE LEE
OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE COULD SUPPORT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR
SCATTERED VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD BY AIDED BY MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TURNING EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG
CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS.

..KERR.. 09/10/2014
Back to weather. post 20 shows a weakness in the SAL and moistening atmosphere from 90 and 91. A late season low rider is not out of the question.

I like the idea that add'l sand was added to the sahara. That explains the beach erosion on the gulf coast. +1 for that comment.

is there a max for the ignore list?





Quoting 93. weatherh98:



Apply this first;)


We're going to need a bigger can!!
Not much wind on Elbow Cay...Abaco. ENE 6
Quoting 105. sar2401:

I wonder how much oil there was before BP? I used to get an awful lot of oil on my hull when I'd transit the Gulf, and there were a lot of floating tar balls, all long before the blowout. There are something like 10,000 active seeps in the Gulf.


These seeps and spills certainly aren't having a positive affect. I've never really sailed much in the open waters of the Gulf, mostly the atl and carib. I've heard stories like that before though.
Quoting weatherh98:

South Louisiana is awfully hot

I'll a need a cold front and some snow next week, you think they can take care of that for me
I don't have the inside track on any of that. If I did, my lawn would be nice and green and it would cost you some big money just to get snow for your own amusement. I don't think the cotton farmers would be none too happy about snow either, and it would mean a lot of paper work.
Stops in during lunch and see's a troll running wild.
Quoting 106. JRRP:


A hurricane inside Africa jejeje
its the crazy gfs A hurricane inside Africa
Quoting 120. StormTrackerScott:

Stops in during lunch and see's a troll running wild.


and everyone quoted him of course..Lunchtime Bickering Fest 2014..Be there or Be Quoted.
Quoting GatorWX:


These seeps and spills certainly aren't having a positive affect. I've never really sailed much in the open waters of the Gulf, mostly the atl and carib. I've heard stories like that before though.
There's a lot of it. I understand there are deep dwelling creatures that actually digest the stuff. I keep hearing about how we're running out of oil but there sure seems to be a lot of it still hanging around under the Gulf.
Quoting 109. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It also became entrained into the circulation as the storm passed over Hispaniola/Cuba, and an upper-level low over the northwestern Caribbean Sea helped to infuse more.

Isaac pretty much struggled with dry air from the beginning. As I recall, right when it got named in the eastern Caribbean dry air from the MDR kept getting wrapped into its circulation, despite the larger size and slower trade winds that were present for Ernesto. Isaac pretty much stayed disorganized up until it reached Hispaniola where it approached hurricane status, then the factors you mentioned came into play. 2012 was a bit of headache to track, although not as bad as the last two years.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Stops in during lunch and see's a troll running wild.
It always happens when you show up.
Quoting 123. ncstorm:



and everyone quoted him of course..


I wouldn't even comment on someone saying we are modifying weather. It only takes one folks remember Sandy in 2012 after a season of struggling storms then came Sandy and forever changed the coastline across the mid Atlantic. I guess we modified that too.
Quoting 101. islander44:



Sure did. And many of the homeowners in LaPlace had just been told by the banks that they were no longer recommending carrying flood insurance. So hundreds of them dropped flood insurance 6 months before Isaac.

Check your insurance carefully, folks. "Tis the season.


Every time I have driven though LaPlace in the last 20 years, I have been reminded of 'Systems of Linear Differential Equations' and LaPlace transforms. That class told me I really didn't want a Masters degree, after all, and it was time to get a job. Driving to Fourchon a lot, before Highway 90 was a major highway, and one had to g through Morgan City and by the ship yards and the roads would be under water during the Spring floods.
Quoting 126. sar2401:

It always happens when you show up.


Go figure. Any rain you lately as I've noticed some big storms near you over the weekend?
Quoting EdMahmoud:
Dr. Ventrice's post gives me some optimism, I have noted beyond Day 10, 500 mb pattern from GFS/GEFS/Op Euro and EPS show a potential path from the Caribbean to Florida, with my main concern lack of excitement from the Euro/EPS on development. But the Albany mets and the CCKW, they have shown some skill, and seem to like Caribbean, to some degree.

Also more attention to BahamaBlob than I would have thought. I doubt it does much, but even a TD into Alabama or Mississippi would provide great excitement on the blog.



Yeah, it may be a bit early to Hotlink Texas snow pictures, when Florida has proven itself as a hurricane magnet into mid-November, but while I hate our brutal Winters, I do love the snow.

Not all that much excitement, since the seven or so members from those two states would have to work overtime to really monopolize the blog. It has been so long since anything even vaguely tropical approached Alabama that I've forgotten how to get very excited. At least Florida has had test runs.
The Karankawa used tar balls from the natural seeps to waterproof their canoes.

Besides the warmer temperature, the existence of seeps, and the evolution of bacteria that consumes oil, is why the Gulf is recovering more quickly than Prince William Sound in Alaska.
This guy is taking the low road.

Not looking as bad nowLink

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Go figure. Any rain you lately as I've noticed some big storms near you over the weekend?
Near me being the key word. Zip in terms of any actual precipitation. I get jealous of all the torrential rain in Florida. I'll bet your lawn isn't brown.



something with the model are not right at all this invest 91L IS moving west and still moving west and the model got invest 91L moving nw!!!
You can see it more on the 12Z GFS
So how about those Tunnels? :)
Quoting 134. sar2401:

Near me being the key word. Zip in terms of any actual precipitation. I get jealous of all the torrential rain in Florida. I'll bet your lawn isn't brown.


Getting brown as in too much water here. My yard is very mushy and squishy squashy right now.
91L and the upcoming system the GFS shows reminds me alot of the beginning forecasts of both Danielle and Earl in 2010.. Gonna have to see how everything evolves the next few weeks.




if invest 91L moving west at 17 mph why is model showing invest 91L MOVING NW
Quoting 133. SFLWeatherman:

Not looking as bad nowLink




Seems to getting better organized. Could be TS or TD soon if it can continue to build even deeper convection.
Quoting hurricanes2018:




if invest 91L moving west at 17 mph why is model showing invest 91L MOVING NW
Guys could we possibly go back to code orange next TWO.
Quoting 139. reedzone:

91L and the upcoming system the GFS shows reminds me alot of the beginning forecasts of both Danielle and Earl in 2010.. Gonna have to see how everything evolves the next few weeks.


Say bye bye to 91L as OTS it will go deep trough across the US come next week.
Quoting 141. StormTrackerScott:



Seems to getting better organized. Could be TS or TD soon if it can continue to build even deeper convection.


Shutters or no?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Seems to getting better organized. Could be TS or TD soon if it can continue to build even deeper convection.
Maybe 20/20 or 20/30 next TWO.
12z CMC at 150 hours..eyeing LA

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Say bye bye to 91L as OTS it will go deep trough across the US come next week.

And probably as a weak tropical cyclone, if that.
Here is the satellite for the Bahamas it is not looking as bad now. it is expected to shift westward over Florida through the weekend. Expect periods of heavy rain and brief gusty winds with 2 to 4 inches of rain for S FL with some spots up to 3 to 5 inches of rain.
Blog is about to pop off.




Quoting ncstorm:
12z CMC at 150 hours..eyeing LA

DOOMMM! :)
Quoting 142. Andrebrooks:

Guys could we possibly go back to code orange next TWO.


Don't think anybody really cares about 91L
Attempts at weather control.

When it has been three weeks of no rain, as happened this Summer, a 20% chance of rain would make me water the lawn. Officially, to do my minor part by adding a few milli-Angstroms to the PW, but really in an attempt to fool the rain god.
The pattern is very similar to 2010 with Earl. I think the biggest threat this year is keeping an eye on homegrown activity.

Those systems flare up quick, and can intensify rapidly if conditions are right. And less warning to coastal residents. Granted, you won't see monster category 3 or above systems, but we all remember what Isaac did and the damage he caused as a powerful category 1.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Blog is about to pop off.

Could I possibly go back to HurricaneAndre.
Quoting 144. Drakoen:



Shutters or no?


No shutters but keep the trash can in as they may get tipped over from 25mph winds.
Quoting 147. TropicalAnalystwx13:


And probably as a weak tropical cyclone, if that.

Should it develop--and should it is big word--It will have adversity to face, such as dry air and a gradual increase in the vertical shear profile. It will struggle, but then again could have a few tricks in the bag for us. We'll see.
Quoting 146. ncstorm:

12z CMC at 150 hours..eyeing LA




I am at the stage now where CMC solutions give me hope.
Quoting 144. Drakoen:



Shutters or no?


Shutters. And Cheetohs and SlimJims.
Quoting 149. StormTrackerScott:

Blog is about to pop off.




Really? 252 hours out... No popping here
and then sends it west to Florida while riding along the Gulf coastal states..

Quoting 151. STORMW2014:



Don't think anybody really cares about 91L


Bermuda.
Quoting 150. Andrebrooks:

DOOMMM! :)


Ahhh, the good ole CMC (Constantly Making Cyclones). Always good for a good laugh in fantasy land.
more like the sound of a another model forecast bust
oh but its not finished..it wants to take out the east coast too..

Quoting 161. EdMahmoud:



Bermuda.

I think some forget that there are actual living things on Bermuda besides animals and plants. But then again I slept through a couple history lesson as well so I'm just as guilty.
Quoting 143. StormTrackerScott:



Say bye bye to 91L as OTS it will go deep trough across the US come next week.

I think everybody knows 91L is heading out to sea, strong storm or not. I personally think it will be a strong one way out there in the open atlantic
Quoting 138. StormTrackerScott:



Getting brown as in too much water here. My yard is very mushy and squishy squashy right now.

What is your soil profile around there? Mostly an excessively drained sand layer, I am assuming??
Quoting STORMW2014:


Don't think anybody really cares about 91L
You don't think so.
ahh..The CMC..never disappoints..

Quoting 146. ncstorm:

12z CMC at 150 hours..eyeing LA




one day the CMC will verify....not holding my breath.
copying jason "its a fish"
Not much at the surface........





Link
Quoting 165. ncstorm:

oh but its not finished..it wants to take out the east coast too..



9 days away is a long time. Probably not the wisest idea to put too much faith in that depiction. You definitely shouldn't worry though.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Blog is about to pop off.




In about 170 hours, maybe.
Quoting 57. sar2401:

The small area of whoers in the Gulf to the west of Florida is associated with the tail end of a week front and a tropical wave. It should continue to move west toward the Yucatan. No models develop it and there's no dynamics in the Gulf to develop it. Given the flat pressure gradient across the area it will take several days for this feature to slowly move west.

What are whoers?
Quoting 171. canehater1:



one day the CMC will verify....not holding my breath.

Even a blind squirrel can find a nut.

Or a broken clock is right twice a day.
Quoting 178. PedleyCA:


What are whoers?

CB lingo. The ones law enforcement and Ham radio operators use. Clever wording.
90 day observed rainfall:



90 day departure from average rainfall:

Quoting 90. EdMahmoud:

OK, more fun potential in HAARP and Florida's lack of hurricanes.

But why did they hit NY/NJ with Sandy?


I guess, because the government didn't like NY/NJ. I'm sure insurers were very happy with the result. No more harpists.
Quoting 178. PedleyCA:


What are whoers?


Obviously you've never been to Brooklyn.
Quoting 139. reedzone:

91L and the upcoming system the GFS shows reminds me alot of the beginning forecasts of both Danielle and Earl in 2010.. Gonna have to see how everything evolves the next few weeks.


xD
Yes not yet but look at this:Link
Quoting 173. nrtiwlnvragn:

Not much at the surface........





Link
Boy this guy is winding up fast. Very surprised to see this and you can expect to see the NHC raise the odds on this at 2pm. Getting put together nicely right now.

Quoting 185. SFLWeatherman:

Yes not yet but look at this:Link



It's definitely not wasting anytime developing right now.
Some stats for the weary on this "peak" period day:...........Doubtful that this will pan out this year as we are looking at a "below-average" season per NHC and Colorado State.

An "average" Atlantic hurricane season (1981-2010) would still deliver the following after Sep. 11:

  • 6 more named storms
  • 3 more hurricanes
  • 2 major hurricanes

Put another way, 61 percent of all Atlantic named storms form from September through the end of the season.

I'd say this area has a shot to get named soon. NHC will likely tag this as 92L in the next few hours. Looks kinda hybrid though as dry air in en trained on the SE side.
Quoting 164. Andrebrooks:




The GFS is also showing the Bahama blob making it further in to the Gulf this run. Granted, it doesn't really show a system, just a weak area of 850mb winds that redevelop after crossing S Fl.
Quoting 173. nrtiwlnvragn:

Not much at the surface........





Link


Click for loop.
The 12z JMA is showing a similar set up in the GOM..last frame at 144 hours..see if the 12z UKMET still shows the low as well like the 00z run..

ASCAT A shows east winds NE of Eleuthera, ASCAT B shows west winds in the same area. Which one to believe wishcast?
12z UKMET..weak but there..

120 hours


144 hours
Bahama blob looks impressive on the vis loop (like a banding feature) but not as impressive on the WV loops and no established llc yet per the ASCAT pass posted below...........It has quite a ways to go.
Quoting 194. nrtiwlnvragn:

ASCAT A shows east winds NE of Eleuthera, ASCAT B shows west winds in the same area. Which one to believe wishcast?

Why not believe them both... there is nearly an hour between the two passes.
12z UKMET is also showing some rain for texas..



199. JLPR2
91L seems to be finally pulling itself together near 15n.

Quoting JLPR2:
91L seems to be finally pulling itself together near 15n.

Code orange?
Sam Champion called JB a bully on Twitter..its a spat of tweets going on now..

TWC vs Weatherbell..
202. JLPR2
Quoting 200. Andrebrooks:

Code orange?


Maybe, or wait and see if it really is doing that, it's the NHC's call.
Quoting JLPR2:


Maybe, or wait and see if it really is doing that, it's the NHC's call.
Gotcha. :)
Pakistani authorities have breached a strategic dyke in flood-affected Punjab to ease pressure on flood defences downstream and protect urban areas.

More than 700,000 villagers have been forced to flee their homes.

Much of the water is reaching Pakistan from Indian-administered Kashmir where flood levels are now falling.

There have been chaotic scenes at one of the region's main airports, Srinagar, as tourists and migrant workers struggle to leave.

The death toll in the two countries has passed 450, with troops deployed to rescue people and provide assistance.


Link
My winter weather blog is always open.
Quoting 197. Skyepony:


Why not believe them both... there is nearly an hour between the two passes.


As I understand ASCAT it only has two possible wind solutions (ambiguities) for wind direction, it is either correct or 180 deg off. Requires manual analysis by someone trained in doing so.

Ambiguities explained in this paper on Quickscat.
Very weak surface low developing per visible sat

Pressures are very high, so this should not be able to sustain itself for very long.

Invest 92L

AL, 92, 2014091018, , BEST, 0, 266N, 756W, 20, 1014, LO

Quoting 190. StormTrackerScott:

I'd say this area has a shot to get named soon. NHC will likely tag this as 92L in the next few hours. Looks kinda hybrid though as dry air in en trained on the SE side.
Which area are you referring too, please?
NHC 92L INVEST 20140910 1800 266N 0756W
looks like the e cen florida no namer starting to look tropical
Quoting 150. Andrebrooks:

DOOMMM! :)

Not possible.. the mountains of South Florida will degrade any significant cyclonic development when it passes over them! (there are mountains in South Florida right?)
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922014 09/10/14 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 29 35 41 42 44 46 49 52
V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 29 35 29 31 33 35 39 41
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 26 26 29 31 33 35 37
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 7 16 18 15 16 21 28 24 22 17 20 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 1 -2 2 -2 -6 -3 -3 -5 -2 -6
SHEAR DIR 359 296 355 17 28 346 22 5 7 6 343 324 265
SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.2 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.9
POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 158 159 160 162 164 170 170 169 169 168 164
ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 133 135 135 140 141 147 153 150 146 140 135
200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0
TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 10 8 9 7 9
700-500 MB RH 58 56 51 51 51 50 56 61 65 66 62 60 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 2 2 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -79 -83 -102 -104 -84 -80 -48 -27 -9 -16 -28 -72 -67
200 MB DIV -25 -36 -1 1 -2 -7 13 11 -4 2 -24 8 9
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -7 0 -7 -3 -6 0 -1 0
LAND (KM) 448 401 356 311 268 138 0 -74 19 118 180 145 131
LAT (DEG N) 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.9
LONG(DEG W) 75.6 76.1 76.5 77.0 77.4 78.7 80.1 81.5 82.8 84.0 85.1 86.0 86.4
STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3
HEAT CONTENT 55 53 49 46 43 48 34 58 29 32 29 33 32

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
-------------------------------------------------- --------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 6. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
-------------------------------------------------- --------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 21. 22. 24. 26. 29. 32.

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 09/10/14 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922014 INVEST 09/10/14 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 09/10/2014 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
Forecasting a TS!!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks good for an invest.
Quoting 201. ncstorm:

Sam Champion called JB a bully on Twitter..its a spat of tweets going on now..

TWC vs Weatherbell..


28 knot shear ahead of 92L, no surprise the SHIPS and LGEM didn't do much with it.
15 minutes ago:
X-class solar flare just occurred.

No change at all.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 600 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands remains disorganized.
While tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated today,
environmental conditions could become somewhat more favorable for
development by later in the week while the low moves toward the
west-northwest and northwest at about 15 mph over the open Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the Bahamas and the
adjacent Atlantic are associated with a weak surface trough
interacting with an upper-level low. Development, if any, of this
system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves generally
westward at 5 to 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
I'm interested to see the new TWO and discussion. If they still aren't too impressed, I will cease to be as well. Convection, although continuing to increase in coverage, is still quite spotty and disorganized, imo.

Quoting 220. Bluestorm5:

X-class solar flare just occurred.




Was the CME Earth facing?
92L's circulation is just entering the radar view.
Quoting 224. GatorWX:

I'm interested to see the new TWO and discussion. If they still aren't too impressed, I will cease to be as well. Convection, although continuing to increase in coverage, is still quite spotty and disorganized, imo.


Gonna wait until tonight before I decide whether to power up the extra computers and monitors............. :)
Quoting GatorWX:
I'm interested to see the new TWO and discussion. If they still aren't too impressed, I will cease to be as well. Convection, although continuing to increase in coverage, is still quite spotty and disorganized, imo.



It's fun to watch, and it should track over S. Forida.
Convection wise, it was a lot more impressive yesterday.
imagine shear could be a big problem until it turns northeast into n florida
Quoting 224. GatorWX:

I'm interested to see the new TWO and discussion. If they still aren't too impressed, I will cease to be as well. Convection, although continuing to increase in coverage, is still quite spotty and disorganized, imo.




And......they're not. :)

2. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the Bahamas and the
adjacent Atlantic are associated with a weak surface trough
interacting with an upper-level low. Development, if any, of this
system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves generally
westward at 5 to 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Quoting 220. Bluestorm5:

X-class solar flare just occurred.


Flare trajectory would be a fun fact! :/
Quoting 186. StormTrackerScott:

Boy this guy is winding up fast. Very surprised to see this and you can expect to see the NHC raise the odds on this at 2pm. Getting put together nicely right now.



I think not!
Tropical Weather Outlook Text
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 600 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands remains disorganized.
While tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated today,
environmental conditions could become somewhat more favorable for
development by later in the week while the low moves toward the
west-northwest and northwest at about 15 mph over the open Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the Bahamas and the
adjacent Atlantic are associated with a weak surface trough
interacting with an upper-level low. Development, if any, of this
system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves generally
westward at 5 to 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

Nice little LLC

Quoting 226. Sfloridacat5:

92L's circulation is just entering the radar view.



? It's e of the Bahamas.
Quoting 225. CybrTeddy:



Was the CME Earth facing?


Yes. In fact, it's North America facing.

It's also long lasting event, which is a sign of CME.

Same position we were in yesterday afternoon.............How much can it organize before moving ashore on the Florida East coast over the next 48-72. Either running out of time and a rain event (and another fresh water dump from Lake O into the estuaries) or possible TD/TS status "if" shear cooperates (along with a bump from the gulf stream).

Can't wait to see what NHC thinks.....................
UPDATED STORM FORECAST: NOAA forecasters have issued a geomagnetic storm warning for Sept. 12th when a CME (described below) is expected to deliver a glancing but potent blow to Earth's magnetic field. The storm could reach moderate intensity (G2-class) with auroras visible across northern-tier US states such as Maine, Michigan, and Minnnesota.

Edit: This appears to be a forecast for a weaker one that occured yesterday. So imagine this a more from todays.
Quoting GatorWX:


? It's e of the Bahamas.


You can see the circulation on the far east side of the radar image just entering the loop.
Quoting 240. CybrTeddy:


Interesting, it'll be interesting to see how strong of an X-flare this officially is.


Look like it peaked at 1.6x. Thankfully it's not higher, but I'm assuming X-class is still nothing to sneeze at.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 600 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands remains disorganized.
While tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated today,
environmental conditions could become somewhat more favorable for
development by later in the week while the low moves toward the
west-northwest and northwest at about 15 mph over the open Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the Bahamas and the
adjacent Atlantic are associated with a weak surface trough
interacting with an upper-level low. Development, if any, of this
system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves generally
westward at 5 to 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Almost looks like a reverse Fay like track... hmm.
Current peak right now is X1.5, could go up.
Quoting GatorWX:


And......they're not. :)

2. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the Bahamas and the
adjacent Atlantic are associated with a weak surface trough
interacting with an upper-level low. Development, if any, of this
system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves generally
westward at 5 to 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
And that's why I have switched over to this handle, nothing seems to want to develop.
Quoting 227. weathermanwannabe:



Gonna wait until tonight before I decide whether to power up the extra computers and monitors............. :)


I wonder if it'll be able to sustain anything through the night. Been a bit of an issue in this region so far in '14.

Quoting 228. Sfloridacat5:



It's fun to watch, and it should track over S. Forida.
Convection wise, it was a lot more impressive yesterday.


Circulation looks much better defined today, to me at least. 12z still shows a trof.

Quoting 233. VAbeachhurricanes:

Nice little LLC


interesting little thing.
there appears to be a surface reflection trying to established it self in 92L. it appears all of the spinning is at the mid levels and although the pressures in the area is high it is only a matter of time before they begin to show signs of falling. The slow forward motion of 92L will give it quite a bit of time to organize and to become a strong tropical storm or a cat 1 hurricane the next few days. Central and east Florida should monitor this system very closely
@TheSunToday
X1.6 flare from AR12158 as seen by SDO in multiple wavelengths.

92 headed for the florida straits? wait to ex 90 gets into the action
This pathetic season is definitely not AMO related since that's well into positive territory at...

+0.356
Quoting 246. Andrebrooks:

And that's why I have switched over to this handle, nothing seems to want to develop.
I LOVE that you have different alter ego's for weather events !!!!
Nothing wants to develop? Remember patience my friend. You didn't need to change handles just for that. Imo
The d-max - d-min experts on here will break it down for us between now and tomorrow in terms of peak t-storm activity and the waning periods.....................It will need to sustain more persistent convection in order to bring it all together and to start to lower pressures.  The next 24 hours will be interesting if it can combine more convection around a stacked-up coc.
Yeah, starting to see some convection firing on the N/NW side of the 92L's circulation.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Odile, located about 200 miles
south-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

1. Satellite images indicate that a tropical depression may be
forming about 850 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula. If current trends continue, advisories
will likely be initiated on this system later today or tonight.
This system is expected to move slowly northward during the next
couple of days and then turn eastward after that.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

I wonder where this plane is going.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Odile, located about 200 miles
south-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

1. Satellite images indicate that a tropical depression may be
forming about 850 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula. If current trends continue, advisories
will likely be initiated on this system later today or tonight.
This system is expected to move slowly northward during the next
couple of days and then turn eastward after that.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Polo right?
Quoting 254. RGVtropicalWx13:

Nothing wants to develop? Remember patience my friend. You didn't need to change handles just for that. Imo
Do you think he has costumes too? That would be awesome !!!
Quoting GatorWX:


I wonder if it'll be able to sustain anything through the night. Been a bit of an issue in this region so far in '14.



Circulation looks much better defined today, to me at least. 12z still shows a trof.



Better defined, just needs more convection. That will help isolate the center and let it develop.
The next 24 hours will be interesting


Quoting 258. Andrebrooks:


I wonder where this plane is going.


To Patraps house, they're gonna do a (insert his most favorite cookie) drop on his house for all the awesome work he's done.
Invest 92L

Invest 92L
Last Updated Sep 10, 2014 18 GMT
Location 26.6 75.6W Movement NW
Wind 25 MPH
plenty of convection in the straits atm
INVEST 92L got a nice spin
Quoting 250. CybrTeddy:

@TheSunToday
X1.6 flare from AR12158 as seen by SDO in multiple wavelengths.



That's a big one. 2158 is aiming right at us, this is a much larger flare than the M4 or so I posted about the other night. Any CME from this, and there likely will be one, should be directed very much towards us. We've taken worse hits in the past, so nothing "bad" should happen, but could get some brilliant auroras in places that don't usually see them in a few days.
Storms moving in from the Bahamas into Florida can be a bit tricky to predict, at least in terms of movement. At the very least this thing might give central and South Florida quite a rainy day or two.
Quoting 268. MAweatherboy1:


That's a big one. 2158 is aiming right at us, this is a much larger flare than the M4 or so I posted about the other night. Any CME from this, and there likely will be one, should be directed very much towards us. We've taken worse hits in the past, so nothing "bad" should happen, but could get some brilliant auroras in places that don't usually see them in a few days.


Are you aware if any technology can be affected by this particular one? Or is it not strong enough?
Quoting GatorWX:


I wonder if it'll be able to sustain anything through the night. Been a bit of an issue in this region so far in '14.



Circulation looks much better defined today, to me at least. 12z still shows a trof.



They think it looks better too.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N59W DRIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN
300NM OF THE LOW FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 55W-64W. A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS NEAR 24N77W TO 29N74W. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A CLOSED LOW MAY
BE DEVELOPING IN THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 72W-77W. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH THE TROUGH. OTHER DEEP CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC
IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That's a big one. 2158 is aiming right at us, this is a much larger flare than the M4 or so I posted about the other night. Any CME from this, and there likely will be one, should be directed very much towards us. We've taken worse hits in the past, so nothing "bad" should happen, but could get some brilliant auroras in places that don't usually see them in a few days.


That last M4 flare brought auroras as far south as Montana.
Seeing some of that convection to the NW of the circulation that can be seen on visible satellite.
A nice little band like feature on radar.

95E is showing great form..

The low must have really repositioned itself. It was originally forming in the southern Bahamas. Now it looks like it might go right over Scotts house




Quoting 272. CybrTeddy:



That last M4 flare brought auroras as far south as Montana.


Yeah, I think we might end up seeing auroras here in Western North Carolina. Hopefully, that's the case.
Wind switched to NW on Elbow Cay which is appropriate considering the location of 92L. Heavy rain too.
Quoting 270. ElConando:



Are you aware if any technology can be affected by this particular one? Or is it not strong enough?

We don't know yet. X1-2 level flares can certainly cause at least nuisance problems for certain technologies, but each flare is different. The Space Weather Prediction Center issues warnings and other bulletins here. If you go there you can see we're already under a watch for moderate geomagnetic storming in a couple days due to glancing blow impacts from the M class flare the other day. Associated hazards and impacts are described. For example, in a G2 watch, which is currently in effect:

"Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state."
Quoting Grothar:
The low must have really repositioned itself. It was originally forming in the southern Bahamas. Now it looks like it might go right over Scotts house






LOL at the very least it will be fun to watch.
I want some Louisiana action. :)
cme's are know to cause WWB's I believe which favor El Nino.
91



*edit, Ok, nm lol
Many of the models want to take 92L to the S.W. down towards the Florida Straits.

That would help its chance (what little chance it has) of developing.

Example:
12Z NAM at 72 hours down in the Fl. Straits.

Personal weather station on Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas is reporting ~10kt winds out of the NW in a convection-less area. That shows at least some proof of winds coming out of a westerly direction. Pressures are still high, however, it interest me how 92L has been able to develop a surface feature despite the high pressures in the area. If convection keeps building, things might get a little interesting.
Quoting 275. Grothar:

The low must have really repositioned itself. It was originally forming in the southern Bahamas. Now it looks like it might go right over Scotts house







I have my boat ready in downtown Orlando, I'll pick up Scott if it gets too rough.



General motion is likely to the W or even WSW with time with ridge to the north. Small storm can spin spin up quickly worth keeping tabs if you live in southern florida.
Quoting 279. WxLogic:



LOL at the very least it will be fun to watch.

The occasional 30mph wind gusts will rattle a lot of leafs off trees. So it'll be fun to watch and fun for little kids to jump into moist piles of leafs after.
Quoting 275. Grothar:

The low must have really repositioned itself. It was originally forming in the southern Bahamas. Now it looks like it might go right over Scotts house





It's going to go over my old house in a few hours.
Quoting 275. Grothar:

The low must have really repositioned itself. It was originally forming in the southern Bahamas. Now it looks like it might go right over Scotts house







So that place behind the Publix is safe?
Quoting 275. Grothar:

The low must have really repositioned itself. It was originally forming in the southern Bahamas. Now it looks like it might go right over Scotts house







Don't get him riled up! :p
92L is continuing to gather some organization. This could be a TD or TS before coming ashore in SE FL.


Link
Quoting 216. Naga5000:






LMAO!!



hopetown bahamas surfing garbanzos&crazy good fishing too
Quoting 285. Naga5000:



I have my boat ready in downtown Orlando, I'll pick up Scott if it gets too rough.






Infact is just got thru pouring for the 7th day straight here in Altamonte Springs. Really raking up the rainfall totals this month.
92L needs to stay south to have a fighting chance of developing into anything. That would give it more water to work with and put it in the GOM at a lower latitude.

so we got Invest 92L..so much for those pressure gradients..
Quoting 292. StormWx:



LOL, the NHC is giving it a 10% chance. You are completely wrong again :o)

I guess you haven't seen the visible loop of 92L.. it looks pretty to me too. Nhc likely to change their wording at the 8pm TWO. So Scott isnt quite wrong. :)
Let's try this again..

91

302. JRRP
ensembles GFS
Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 103
Issue Time: 2014 Sep 10 1827 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2014 Sep 10 1721 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Sep 10 1745 UTC
End Time: 2014 Sep 10 1820 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.6
Optical Class: 2b
Location: N15E09
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.
Quoting 290. GeoffreyWPB:



So that place behind the Publix is safe?


I told you about this 5 days ago. :) And what are you doing behind Publix?
"Looking" better with each frame...

Arthur had a near 0% chance of developing if I remember correctly..


"Moisture from Norbert also helped contribute to torrential rains that affected Northern Missouri on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As of 8 am EDT Wednesday, 10.54" was recorded in 12 hours in Browning, MO, with 9.61" inches falling at Chillicothe. Moisture from Norbert will spread all the way into Michigan's Upper Peninsula on Wednesday afternoon, and an Areal Flood Watch is posted there for flooding rains of 1 - 3"."
Burst of convection firing right over 92L's center.

Quoting 307. ncstorm:

Arthur had a near 0% chance of developing if I remember correctly..


He short term memory lapses. CMC if right would be something for the whole SE US coast.
Quoting 288. Abacosurf:

It's going to go over my old house in a few hours.


lol.
12z Euro is showing a Low in the GOM as the same time frame as CMC/UKMET/JMA..Weatherbell is only out to 192 hours....
Quoting 298. ncstorm:

so we got Invest 92L..so much for those pressure gradients..


We're good, nc :)
Quoting 285. Naga5000:



I have my boat ready in downtown Orlando, I'll pick up Scott if it gets too rough.






Are those Fresca bottles? :)


Unfortunately none of these take 92L south of Florida.
invest 91L looking better right now
2005 we had Opheila develop into a hurricane 50 miles east of Daytona and no one expected that. Kinda popped up out of no where. With 85 to 90 SST's you better keep an eye out on 92L as things maybe about to get interesting.
Quoting 305. Grothar:



I told you about this 5 days ago. :) And what are you doing behind Publix?
He was looking for leftover Sub rolls and fried chicken.
If 92l crosses over Florida, what is the likelihood of intensification before a second landfall???
Southern track 92L would also spend the least amount of time over land.
Crossing the Everglades would be the best spot if it had to cross Florida.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 318. StormTrackerScott:

2005 we had Opheila develop into a hurricane 50 miles east of Daytona and no one expected that. Kinda popped up out of no where. With 85 to 90 SST's you better keep an eye out on 92L as things maybe about to get interesting.

Ophelia was not a surprise, it was monitored by the NHC four days before it developed.
Quoting safetyman007:
If 91l crosses over Florida, what is the likelihood of intensification before a second landfall???


I think you mean 92L. The further south in the GOM the better its chance of development. That would give it more time over water.
Quoting 318. StormTrackerScott:

2005 we had Opheila develop into a hurricane 50 miles east of Daytona and no one expected that. Kinda popped up out of no where. With 85 to 90 SST's you better keep an eye out on 92L as things maybe about to get interesting.


Nobody living in this region of the country should ever let their guard down. *This is not my analogue system for 92! :)

What is the ULL to the east?

As the high move back west, 92L could move west or even SW.

Quoting 324. Sfloridacat5:



I think you mean 92L. The further south in the GOM the better its chance of development. That would give it more time over water.


Damn auto-correct.
Quoting 325. GatorWX:



Nobody living in this region of the country should ever let their guard down. *This is not my analogue system for 92! :)




And it came in 4 hours earlier than they thought, too! A lot of people were caught off guard.
...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK PRES PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
UNDER PERSISTENT WEAK RIDGING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND WILL ENTER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER
THE W CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN THE WAVE AND RIDGING N OF THE
AREA...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN
ISSUE OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF
TROUGHING CURRENTLY E OF THE NW BAHAMAS. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO
THE SE GULF FRI INTO SAT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS WESTWARD...BUT THE UKMET
AND CMC REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE. THIS MAY BE DUE TO CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE GFS AND ECMWF WITH ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
THE NW BAHAMAS IS STARTING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BETWEEN AN
UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER TROUGH S OF THE AREA. A 1430
UTC ASCAT PASS DID NOT SHOW CONCLUSIVELY THAT THE TROUGH HAD
CLOSED OFF YET AT THE SURFACE...BUT THIS IS POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF
SHORTLY. THE PRES IS RELATIVELY HIGH HOWEVER AND THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW PRES/TROUGH SHIFTING
WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THU. FARTHER EAST...AN
UPPER LOW IS MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD 65W...BRINGING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEAK TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...MAINTAINING A GENERALLY LIGHT WIND REGIME AND
LIMITED SEAS N OF 22N. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...ALLOWING FRESH TRADES
AT TIMES S OF 22N ALONG TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA.
331. 7544
p is 92l suppose to go striaght to the west over looks like wpb fl or ots ?tia