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Two Flavors of Record Heat: Deadhorse and Houston

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:38 PM GMT on July 14, 2016

If you glance at a temperature map for North America, as shown below, you might get the impression that we’re in the midst of a fairly typical midsummer week. The north central United States and south central Canada are basking in relative comfort, thanks to a strong upper-level low and an accompanying surface high moving across the northern tier of U.S. states. Readings on Thursday morning dipped into the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit across the Northern Plains. This air will be sliding eastward over the next several days, bringing a refreshing “mild-down” across the Midwest and Northeast. What’s noteworthy right now isn’t at the core of the continent: it’s along the fringes, where some exceptional heat has been produced in recent days.


Figure 1. Temperature anomalies (departures from normal) for Thursday, July 15, 2016, as extrapolated from the 00Z Thursday GFS model output. Image credit: Climate Reanalyzer/University of Maine.


Big heat in northernmost Alaska
A pulse of warm air invaded the North Slope of northern Alaska on Wednesday, bringing some of the warmest air ever recorded there. Even with the 24-hour sunlight it receives during most of July, the North Slope typically experiences highs only in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Much warmer air can filter into the region on occasion, though, typically as a mild air mass sweeps in aloft and then warms further as it descends (the same process that can produce very mild winter conditions along the east slopes of the Rockies via “chinook” winds). On Wednesday, the tiny town of Deadhorse, AK--located about 200 air miles southeast of Barrow, and just 10 miles from the Arctic Ocean--rocketed to a high of 85°F, which is an all-time high for the Deadhorse/Prudhoe Bay area. Records there only go back to 1968, but climatologist Brian Brettschneider adds that the Deadhorse reading was the highest ever reported at any location within 50 miles of Alaska’s Arctic coast. The COOP station in Kuparuk, a few miles west of Deadhorse, also reported 85°F, according to Brettschneider. Meanwhile, Barrow topped out at 66°F on Wednesday, well short of the daily record of 79°F—which also happens to be its all-time record high, set in 1993. Update: On Thursday, July 14, Kuparuk topped its all-time record set just the day before, soaring to 86°F.


Figure 2. Temperatures at 4 PM AKDT Wednesday, July 13, 2016, along the Arctic Ocean coast of northernmost Alaska. Image credit: Brett Brettschneider.

Hot nights in Houston
The eye-opener this month in southeast Texas isn’t that it got up into the 80s—it’s that the temperature has had trouble getting below that range. Last week, on July 5, Houston’s Bush Intercontinental Airport tied its all-time warm minimum with a steamy low of just 83°F. This came midway through a five-day stretch of lows at or above 80°F, all of them setting daily records. Weather records at the airport began only in 1969, but the only higher daily minimum in the city’s official record is the 84°F low notched more than a century ago, on July 29, 1895. For this month through Wednesday, July 13, Houston has scored a remarkable nine days with low temperatures at or above 80°F. The most such lows in a single month is 14, in August 1964, so the city has a reasonable shot at breaking that record, as noted by Eric Berger at Space City Weather. Houston’s average temperature for the month through Wednesday (counting both highs and lows) is a sweltering 88.3°F, which is running almost a degree higher than the warmest July on record (87.5°F, set in 1980).

Further west, extreme heat has also been plaguing the High Plains of eastern New Mexico and west Texas for days on end. The town of San Jon, NM, set an all-time record high of 111°F on Wednesday, beating the previous record of 110°F set on June 24, 1990 (records in San Jon go back to 1907). Portales, NM, beat its July record and tied its all-time record high of 109°F from June 25, 2011 (records in Portales go back to 1905). In Lubbock, TX, the average high temperature this month has been a blazing 100.3°F, more than 7 degrees above average. On July 7, Lubbock tied its all-time monthly record of 109°F.

Torrid conditions for the heartland next week
After being shunted to the far sides of the continent, record or near-record heat will invade the center of North America next week, perhaps for an extended period. Long-range computer models continue to insist that a very strong and large ridge of high pressure will develop next week, encompassing most of the contiguous U.S. by the weekend of July 23-24. Temperatures will soar well into the 90s across most of the central U.S., with large areas above 100°F possible by late next week, especially over the Great Plains. Some runs of the GFS and ECMWF models have predicted that the height of the 500-mb pressure surface (roughly the vertical midpoint of the atmosphere) will exceed 600 decameters (6 km, or about 3.7 miles) near the center of the ridge. This would be a noteworthy event, typically seen only during the most intense U.S. heat waves. Because warm air expands, a deep layer of warm air at low levels pushes the 500-mb height upward.


Figure 3. Temperature anomalies (departures from average) in degrees C, projected by the GFS model run from 06Z Thursday, July 14, 2016, for 18Z (2:00 pm EDT) Thursday, July 21, 2016. For readings in degrees Fahrenheit, multiply the Celsius readings shown by 1.8. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

Seemingly endless parade of storms continues in the Eastern Pacific
The Eastern Pacific is in the midst of an extraordinary period of July activity, thanks to favorable genesis conditions created by the presence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has created rising air and low pressure over the region. Beginning on July 2, Tropical Storm Agatha formed, and since then, three hurricanes have joined the parade: Category 4 Hurricane Blas (now dissipated), Category 2 Hurricane Celia (now a tropical storm), and Category 1 Hurricane Darby (predicted to stay below Category 2 strength through the weekend, then weaken.)


Figure 4. VIIRS visible satellite image of ex-Hurricane Blas, Hurricane Celia, Tropical Storm Darby, and Invest 98E taken on Wednesday afternoon, July 13, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

Estelle on the way--and perhaps Frank
Tropical Storm Estelle is also likely on the way--both the European and GFS models indicate that an area of disturbed weather several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico (Invest 98E) will develop into a tropical depression by Saturday, and become Tropical Storm Estelle early next week. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 50% and 90%, respectively. Future Estelle is expected to follow a path similar to Agatha, Blas, Celia and Darby--generally west to west-northwest, away from Mexico. If the Eastern Pacific manages to spit out a Tropical Storm Frank before the end of the month--which is quite possible, given the latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and European models--this would give us six named storms for the month, one short of the July record of seven named storms for Eastern Pacific set in 1985, according to NHC hurricane scientist Eric Blake.

The Atlantic remains quiet
As is usually the case when the Eastern Pacific is active, the Atlantic is quiet. This anti-correlation in activity occurs because rising air over the tropical Eastern Pacific typically creates a compensating area of sinking air over the tropical Atlantic. This sinking air creates surface high pressure and dry weather--the antithesis of conditions needed for tropical cyclone formation. There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days. Don't expect to see a serious threat area develop in the Atlantic until the Eastern Pacific's burst of activity slows down.

Bob Henson (heat), Jeff Masters (tropical)

Heat Extreme Weather Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

maybe we will get a candidate for tropical development since the mjo is moving in
So MJO on the MJO chart is the green color meaning green light for tropical development???
Repost from last blog.

Quoting 486. Loduck:

Has anybody checked to see if the earth has gotten closer to the sun or vice-versa? I dunno how much more stress my garden can take. NO rain since Colin and not much even with that and it is hell hot here in NE Fl


Closest approach to the sun occurs in the Northern Hemisphere's winter. That's a 3.1 million mile difference between winter and summer for the USA. January 2 was closest approach, and July 4 was the farthest from the Sun that the Earth gets.
Thunderstorms inbound for Nashville. Have to go bring the camera inside. Mom's Scarlet Hibiscus of the Rose Mallow started blooming. One flower came out yesterday. Really pretty.

Thanks for the update. Alaska, and particularly the Bering Strait region, is baking at the moment. Thinking how that will impact the issue raised back around April with regard to the possibility of an ice free corridor in the Strait as well as the implications as to the feedback between less ice (less solar reflection) and the air temps along the Alaskan coast as noted in the posts.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/121515-a rctic-report-card-warmer-air-and-sea-declining-ice -continue-to-trigger-arctic-change.html


Arctic Ocean temperature: As sea ice retreats in summer, sea surface temperature (SST) in all the seas of the Arctic Ocean is increasing. Mean sea surface temperatures in ice-free regions in August 2015 ranged from 32 degrees Fahrenheit (0 degrees Celsius) to 44 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit (7 to 8 degrees Celsius) in the Chukchi, Barents and Kara seas and eastern Baffin Bay off the west coast of Greenland. The Chukchi Sea northwest of Alaska and eastern Baffin Bay off west Greenland have the largest warming trends: nearly 1 degree Fahrenheit per decade since 1982 (0.5 degrees Celsius). 
Quoting 3. 69Viking:

So MJO on the MJO chart is the green color meaning green light for tropical development???

yes that last chart i posted from the previous blog, green means MJO is upward motion and the brown/orange was the downward motion that does not help for development for the storms.
The rain is close but still just North of the Coast, come South please!

Quoting 484. weathermanwannabe:

From the US Department of Commerce (April 2016): Page 35

http://trade.gov/topmarkets/pdf/Renewable_Energy_ Top_Markets_Report.pdf


China is both the world’s largest producer and
consumer of renewable energy technologies. In 2016-
2017, its rapid capacity growth will account for over 40
percent of all renewable energy capacity installed
outside the United States, with at least 100 GW added
in the solar, wind, and hydropower sectors combined



From previous blog. Having worked on SCADA systems for wind energy systems across the globe, I can tell you that the gap between installed capacity and functional capacity for China is wider than the Yangtze River is long. Much of the installed capacity is simply purchased and left idle off the grid so that the country can support its developing wind turbine manufacturing industry and claim that they are going to renewable energy.
Quoting 3. 69Viking:

So MJO on the MJO chart is the green color meaning green light for tropical development???


Yes green is rising air :

Quoting 7. bigwes6844:

yes that last chart i posted from the previous blog, green means MJO is upward motion and the brown/orange was the downward motion that does not help for development for the storms.


Thanks, I read it backwards the first time!
Noon boomers right on cue.

I don't like the east pacific at all.
Darby's eye is beginning to clear on visible satellite.



An earlier microwave pass showed that the core had improved dramatically over the course of the preceding few hours. It appears that the shear, which was acting to displace the low-level and mid-level centers, has lessened. The NHC reduced their peak below Category 2 intensity, but I see no reason this won't make a run at major hurricane intensity.

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 1224 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
TORNADO WARNING     TULSA OK - KTSA 1219 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 1214 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 1203 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 1157 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
Quoting 14. CaribBoy:

I don't like the east pacific at all.
That's not the politically correct thing to say :).You're suppose to say "I love tracking these uhhh storms and they um bring me so much uh info.." Oh Who the hell am I kidding......
Quoting 13. Patrap:

Noon boomers right on cue.



good thing I brought my lunch!
12z GFS shows nothing by July 30th.
Quoting 14. CaribBoy:

I don't like the east pacific at all.

I agree fully. Its storms are boring and repetitive. Atlantic hurricanes are the real hurricanes.
12z GFS shows no development expected in the next 7-10 days, and basically for the rest of the month. The July intermission will soon be replaced with August's quick climb in activity.
Quoting 4. Astrometeor:

Repost from last blog.



Closest approach to the sun occurs in the Northern Hemisphere's winter. That's a 3.1 million mile difference between winter and summer for the USA. January 2 was closest approach, and July 4 was the farthest from the Sun that the Earth gets.


This distance difference means that the direct January solar beam is about 7% stronger than in July. If the Southern Hemisphere had the same land/ocean ratios as the Northern Hemisphere, summers in the Southern Hemisphere would be noticably hotter and winters noticably cooler than the Northern Hemisphere analogs.


Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 4h4 hours ago
Massive heat dome "may sprawl from the Rockies to the Appalachians" this time next week:
Key West Temperature 91F, Fairbanks Alaska 96F, as GOP escalates science witch hunt

Only a matter of time before we start seeing heat ridges developing over Alaska and western Canada and dropping southeast into the U.S. Starting to get really, really hot up that way during the summer.

Quoting 21. Climate175:

12z GFS shows no development expected in the next 7-10 days, and basically for the rest of the month. The July intermission will soon be replaced with August's quick climb in activity.

I wonder if August will open up big. August has seen as many as 8 storms before.
Quoting 19. wunderweatherman123:

12z GFS shows nothing by July 30th.
It's a model that will change constantly and looking 384 hours out makes no sense at all. Things can suddenly pop in and out, just like we saw a couple of runs ago. Models should be used as guidance and not as a forecast. Btw, it's only July, so we've got to be patient.
Thanks for the update gentlemen! Had a couple warm spells in Soo Cal this summer but nothing too horrible. Yesterday's high was 93 and Low was 57. Todays Low is 62 and currently 87 with 12%Relative Humidity.

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Thu, 14 Jul 10:43 am PDT
Most Recent Observation: Thu, 14 Jul 10:30 am
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
14 Jul 10:30 am 87 28 12 ESE 5G10 OK
Quoting 25. HurricaneFan:


I wonder if August will open up big. August has seen as many as 8 storms before.
Also MJO or not, August is when statistically the SAL begins cease and not be so intense, and the ITCZ rises, and waves begin to become robust, and if you see the Hurricane Season Chart, there is a steep climb of activity in the first 15 days of August.
Quoting 26. Kyon5:

It's a model that will change constantly and looking 384 hours out makes no sense at all. Things can suddenly pop in and out, just like we saw a couple of runs ago. Models should be used as guidance and not as a forecast. Btw, it's only July, so we've got to be patient.
The only thing I could see popping from out of no where is if the wave that is about to exit Africa doesn't slam into S.A and manages to make it into the caribbean with the MJO being in the western atlantic.Other than that expect pretty dead conditions.
Quoting 23. washingtonian115:

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 4h4 hours ago
Massive heat dome "may sprawl from the Rockies to the Appalachians" this time next week:
hotter and hotter faster and faster
Quoting 31. TropicalAnalystwx13:



So close...
Quoting 33. HurricaneFan:


So close...
yet so far away


won't be much cold left soon
Quoting 4. Astrometeor:

Repost from last blog.



Closest approach to the sun occurs in the Northern Hemisphere's winter. That's a 3.1 million mile difference between winter and summer for the USA. January 2 was closest approach, and July 4 was the farthest from the Sun that the Earth gets.
Thank God it happened in January and not the other way around...I don't know if it would really have made any difference and feel pretty sure that it wouldn't have but some might blame the excess heat on distance to the sun being closer than on global warming
Shouldn't this warm the MDR? Just wondering.
angle of the suns rays that's important not the distance unless we moved closer by 20 million miles or something

Based on decades of personal experience, and before that, family lore, this has to be one of the most average summers in a while here in the SF Bay Area. Stratus quo along the coast, mid-50s SSTs, hot inland, dry, but the reservoirs are fine, so no rationing. I kinda miss the excitement of unusual weather.
Quoting 36. Loduck:

Thank God it happened in January and not the other way around...I don't know if it would really have made any difference and feel pretty sure that it wouldn't have but some might blame the excess heat on distance to the sun being closer than on global warming

It seems fortunate that the closest approach occurs over the ocean-dominated hemisphere, adjacent to the deep freezer of Antarctica, i.e. the hemisphere best equipped to buffer any additional received solar radiation.
Sizzling
Quoting 35. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



won't be much cold left soon

There's a deepening low pressure system off the Arctic coast of Alaska and Canada which ought to transport heat and generate winds over the remaining sea ice. I notice also a good fetch of warming southeast winds over the water between Canada and Greenland. And it looks like the Hudson Bay ice is almost entirely melted.
As of today.
GOM Sea Height Anomaly


TCHP

Quoting 44. Patrap:



All that warmth in the Gulf is feeding a strong gulf stream right now rather than producing hurricanes. With that persistent cold pool south of Greenland, the temperature gradient is likely enhanced, although I haven't seen any comprensive coverage of that to make a more credible comparison.
Getting dark uptown in NOLA looks like rain coming soon
Quoting 31. TropicalAnalystwx13:




Also a record high of 95 in Cleveland yesterday. Must be all the hot air from Inhofe and the gang being in town for the convention.
Fuel on Standby!
">
Interesting from the GEFS ensembles that show some development in NW Caribbean by late July.

Quoting 38. HurricaneFan:

Shouldn't this warm the MDR? Just wondering.


Yes.
Quoting 41. BayFog:


It seems fortunate that the closest approach occurs over the ocean-dominated hemisphere, adjacent to the deep freezer of Antarctica, i.e. the hemisphere best equipped to buffer any additional received solar radiation.


It's really the Earth's atmosphere that is the major player (not necessarily its distance from the sun). If it wasn't for our finely balanced atmosphere, the Earth would have severely cold nights and scorching (hundreds of degrees) days.
That's why a lot of people are so carefully measuring the increase in CO2 levels. Increased CO2 allows the atmosphere to trap more heat (thus making the planet warmer).
For readings in degrees Fahrenheit, multiply the Celsius readings shown by 1.8

???
;)
Lived next door to Canada long enough to know that doesn't work.
Quoting 53. Tropicsweatherpr:

Interesting from the GFS ensembles that show some development in NW Caribbean by late July.


That is from the wave that is forecast to come off of Africa tomorrow.If if doesn't slam into S.A like what the GFS operational has been showing then it may have a chance.
Quoting 57. washingtonian115:

That is from the wave that is forecast to come off of Africa tomorrow.If if doesn't slam into S.A like what the GFS operational has been showing then it may have a chance.

Wow, and that is right over the highest TCHP...
Quoting 53. Tropicsweatherpr:

Interesting from the GEFS ensembles that show some development in NW Caribbean by late July.


It might be like another Danielle situation being the ensembles strongly hint at something forming, while the operational does not, and the ensembles win in the end, but too early to tell.
The wave is at 5-6W.
Quoting 53. Tropicsweatherpr:

Interesting from the GEFS ensembles that show some development in NW Caribbean by late July.




00Z NAVGEM

Posted a few hours ago by Dr. Klotzbach on his twitter feed; remarkable stretch for the US and wondering if this will be the year that it is broken. Do not have a clue but the Gomex is ripe for a huge major if a storm can get into those waters under low shear conditions:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach  3h3 hours ago

3 of 32 Atlantic major hurricanes made US landfall from 1995-2003, 7 of 13 from '04-'05 and 0 of 26 from '06-'15.



Quoting 61. fmbill:



00Z NAVGEM


06z NAVGEM had it too.
Could be high winds with this line...it,ll be here in half an hour...

Here they come.. Clearing the path......



Quoting 66. hydrus:

Here they come.. Clearing they path......




Been looping it, and nice spin on that wave about to come off tomorrow.
69. IDTH
Quoting 42. HurricaneFan:

Sizzling


You know when you have a spot of 31 degree Celsius water near the Bermuda area in July, you can tell the waters are going to be at a record warmth this year. If there was ever a year where we could see a Cat 5 this is the one, especially with the heat content in the norther Caribbean being able to support a Wilma or Gilbert type storm. Of course that's just one factor not including shear but normally with La nina year's shear is reduced greatly, the question is the sinking air and Saharan outbreaks.
Dust and dry air= no hurricanes plus shear is higher than normal nothing will form even if waters are warm.
Quoting 68. Climate175:

Been looping it, and nice spin on that wave about to come off tomorrow.

Our MJO friend is helping them look good over Africa too
How to convert Fahrenheit to Celsius
The temperature T in degrees Celsius (°C) is equal to the temperature T in degrees Fahrenheit (°F) minus 32, times 5/9:
T(°C) = (T(°F) - 32) × 5/9
or
T(°C) = (T(°F) - 32) / (9/5)
or
T(°C) = (T(°F) - 32) / 1.8
Example
Convert 68 degrees Fahrenheit to degrees Celsius:
T(°C) = (68°F - 32) × 5/9 = 20 °C
See: Fahrenheit to Celsius converter
Fahrenheit to Celsius conversion table
Fahrenheit (°F) Celsius (°C)
-459.67 °F -273.15 °C
-50 °F -45.56 °C
-40 °F -40.00 °C
-30 °F -34.44 °C
-20 °F -28.89 °C
-10 °F -23.33 °C
0 °F -17.78 °C
10 °F -12.22 °C
20 °F -6.67 °C
30 °F -1.11 °C
40 °F 4.44 °C
50 °F 10.00 °C
60 °F 15.56 °C
70 °F 21.11 °C
80 °F 26.67 °C
90 °F 32.22 °C
100 °F 37.78 °C
110 °F 43.33 °C
120 °F 48.89 °C
130 °F 54.44 °C
140 °F 60.00 °C
150 °F 65.56 °C
160 °F 71.11 °C
170 °F 76.67 °C
180 °F 82.22 °C
Quoting 70. help4u:

Dust and dry air= no hurricanes plus shear is higher than normal nothing will form even if waters are warm.

I disagree wait a few weeks this downcasting of yours is getting old
Quoting 71. bigwes6844:


Our MJO friend is helping them look good over Africa too
Once it's in the Caribbean, then we could be onto something.
Quoting 74. HurricaneFan:


I disagree wait a few weeks this downcasting of yours is getting old
I agree, it's only July people calm down.
Quoting 31. TropicalAnalystwx13:




You need to update this daily, please.
Quoting 41. BayFog:


It seems fortunate that the closest approach occurs over the ocean-dominated hemisphere, adjacent to the deep freezer of Antarctica, i.e. the hemisphere best equipped to buffer any additional received solar radiation.
Yes, it is
Just for the record, since it is not mentioned in this blog or in any other internet post (add: of those I found) reporting the record high temperature in Deadhorse, Alaska July 13, 2016 - some (not this one) using phrases like "spiraling" arctic heat caused by climate change / global warming...

AND in case anyone besides me was wondering when and what about previous record highs...

...the previous all-time high record at Deadhorse was a temp of 83F in 1991, 25 years ago, and

...the previous July high at Deadhorse was 82F, 20 years ago in 1996.


image cock-a-roached from NWS Fairbanks office


image cock-a-roached from Deadhorse, AK average and record temp page at wu's sister site, Intellicast
The Atlantic is dead right now.What else do you people want us to say?
Quoting 80. washingtonian115:

The Atlantic is dead right now.What else do you people want us to say?
I guess their craving more because of the early activity we've seen this year.
Quoting 80. washingtonian115:

The Atlantic is dead right now.What else do you people want us to say?
I see that at last there's no post here about tracking boring E-Pac systems. Things are closely to change in the Atlantic.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
4 pm edt

Temperature:

87.4°F

Dewpoint:

63.3°F

Humidity:

44%

Wind:

WSW 19 mph

Humidex:

98
Quoting 68. Climate175:

Been looping it, and nice spin on that wave about to come off tomorrow.
It was forecasted to come off with an associated low... it seems likely that it will hold together long enough to take advantage of conditions if the high relents as it approaches the Caribbean.

Observed at:

CFS Alert

Date:

4:00 PM EDT Thursday 14 July 2016




Condition:

Not observed

Pressure:

29.8 inches

Tendency:

rising

Temperature:

54.7°F

Dewpoint:

37.2°F

Humidity:

52%

Wind:

NNW 4 mph
87. IDTH
Quoting 70. help4u:

Dust and dry air= no hurricanes plus shear is higher than normal nothing will form even if waters are warm.

You've been around since 2006, were you like this in 2010 too?
Shear isn't even all that high in the Atlantic right now, and the Atlantic and Caribbean is expected to have overall below normal shear in early August. This in addition to the expected MJO.
anytime after aug 15th
something scary will come
maybe 3 or 4 scares will come
who knows maybe 8 or 10
but we will see soon enough
then most may not want
too see anything at all

Quoting 89. Climate175:



That is a nice wave. It will definitely need to be watched if it manages to stay far enough north, especially with the forecast below-normal shear and warm waters in the Caribbean in late July.
african waves? im into the Poof scenario. still alittle early.
Quoting 79. Barefootontherocks:

Just for the record, since it is not mentioned in this blog or in any other internet post (add: of those I found) reporting the record high temperature in Deadhorse, Alaska July 13, 2016 - some (not this one) using phrases like "spiraling" arctic heat caused by climate change / global warming...

AND in case anyone besides me was wondering when and what about previous record highs...

...the previous all-time high record at Deadhorse was a temp of 83F in 1991, 25 years ago, and

...the previous July high at Deadhorse was 82F, 20 years ago in 1996.
FWIW, I'm not sure of the validity of those Intellicast numbers; I don't know what's from PWSs, and what's official. But at any rate, the fact remains that Deadhorse was officially hotter yesterday than it's ever been, with the temperature topping out some 30 degrees-plus above average. That's notable. It's also notable that the barren North Slope of Alaska, a land separated from the North Pole by only a few hundred miles of open water and increasingly fractured ice floes, was warmer than parts of coastal California. Now, none of that alone means climate change was involved--but when coupled with the rapidly growing mountain of extreme weather behaviors from around the globe, it's certainly becoming easier to make a connection...
Quoting 94. islander101010:

african waves? im into the Poof scenario. still alittle early.
yeah normally the latter half of july we start seeing some good one's then better as we get into august
Link
Here's the link to my latest blog. Please enjoy. :)
Quoting 81. HurricaneAndre:

I guess their craving more because of the early activity we've seen this year.
I'm talking to the ones who keep posting the chart.The atlantic is dead in the present and that's what people are talking about right HERE and right NOW the PRESENT not the frigging future.The Atlantic is dead in the PRESENT.Let me put the definition down

pres·ent1
ˈprez(ə)nt/
adjective
existing or occurring now.
"she did not expect to find herself in her present situation"
synonyms:current, present-day, existing

What do they want us to say about the Atlantic in its current state other than what we've been saying? "Gee can't wait to be tracking those 4 storms at once in September"
Quoting 55. Sfloridacat5:



It's really the Earth's atmosphere that is the major player (not necessarily its distance from the sun). If it wasn't for our finely balanced atmosphere, the Earth would have severely cold nights and scorching (hundreds of degrees) days.
That's why a lot of people are so carefully measuring the increase in CO2 levels. Increased CO2 allows the atmosphere to trap more heat (thus making the planet warmer).
Quoting 74. HurricaneFan:


I disagree wait a few weeks this downcasting of yours is getting old
Quoting 80. washingtonian115:

The Atlantic is dead right now.What else do you people want us to say?
Why not talk about CC, please no, JK.
I remember in the 1970s & 1980s the summer sky was usually very hazy in central Virginia. It looked white and visibility was seldom over 3 -4 miles. The last couple summers I've noticed blue skies and good visibility more often than I remember. I expect that pollution reduction regulations have helped clear the skies, but wonder whether more of the sun's heat gets through the atmosphere, instead of being reflected by the haze.
We will have to "vet" the Atlantic carefully this season. At the "end of the day" we will have to see what we could "glean" from this. "That being said", we will all have to "double-down" and vet and re-vet.
While we have yet to reach the peak period for the Cape Verde t-waves, just noting that while the Northern part of Africa remains parched, the waves (as you have been posting) are healthy looking as they continue to cross the continent along the ITCZ. Only a matter of a few weeks when we will start to see a gradual erosion of the SAL levels closer to 10N in the vicinity of the CV islands:





Quoting 100. PaulSweet:

I remember in the 1970s & 1980s the summer sky was usually very hazy in central Virginia. It looked white and visibility was seldom over 3 -4 miles. The last couple summers I've noticed blue skies and good visibility more often than I remember. I expect that pollution reduction regulations have helped clear the skies, but wonder whether more of the sun's heat gets through the atmosphere, instead of being reflected by the haze.


Quoting 87. IDTH:


You've been around since 2006, were you like this in 2010 too?

Climate is changing, but help4u, not so much
Good rotation with the wave over Western Africa...





is that wave that came off Africa worth watching?
Shows deepest convection...

Quoting 100. PaulSweet:

I remember in the 1970s & 1980s the summer sky was usually very hazy in central Virginia. It looked white and visibility was seldom over 3 -4 miles. The last couple summers I've noticed blue skies and good visibility more often than I remember. I expect that pollution reduction regulations have helped clear the skies, but wonder whether more of the sun's heat gets through the atmosphere, instead of being reflected by the haze.


I suspect it's a wash because (unlike water vapor and C02) haze emits and absorbs at all IR frequencies with no windows so it would cause nighttime warming. Both water vapor and C02 have transmission windows or our planet would be a lot hotter.
Quoting 106. Melagoo:





is that wave that came off Africa worth watching?

More waves for the EPAC....lol
not looking forward too the next round of heat after this
current round ends after sunrise tomorrow
next round may last anywhere
from 10 to 14 days
90+degrees with wide spread 100's that's just air temp
throw another 10 to 15 degrees on that for the humidex level
its gonna be hot real real hot
Just in case Washi missed the memo, September is coming. ;) :P



(pls don't kill me)

Hotter here(KRAL) and double the RH as you had Joe......
Quoting 110. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

not looking forward too the next round of heat after this
current round ends after sunrise tomorrow
next round may last anywhere
from 10 to 14 days
90+degrees with wide spread 100's that's just air temp
throw another 10 to 15 degrees on that for the humidex level
its gonna be hot real real hot


KEEP, do you guys have a volcano or something up there in Canada? Seriously, you're hotter than me, and I'm in the Southern USA. You can keep it though. :P
Waiting on more of that NW flow we did get below 70 dew pt this afternoon in S C IL. Had some winds with derecho through StL yesterday (they reported 70-80 mph down there) and about .8", but lost power during following 10 pm storm and had 2.5" total for evening. Last 10 min of work b4 vacation starts, head to Lake of Ozarks Sat. 90 w/ 66 dew pt for 92 HI, 29.91"light WNW winds.
People have been on here asking about humidex, here is an article and a calculator... enjoy...

Humidex Rating and Work
canhumidexcalc
Quoting 114. Astrometeor:



KEEP, do you guys have a volcano or something up there in Canada? Seriously, you're hotter than me, and I'm in the Southern USA. You can keep it though. :P


Must be all them FIRES....
Darby has the visible appearance of an upper-end Category 3 hurricane...



...but the infrared appearance of a Category 1 hurricane.



My best guess is that it's tracking over a cooler patch of water, probably between 25-26C. This complicates the intensity forecast because we don't know how expansive this patch is or how cold it is exactly. If upwelling is the cause and ocean temperatures warm overnight, allowing deep convection to return, Darby could make a run at Cat 3-4 intensity given how organized the inner core is. Otherwise, it'll probably peak as an upper-end Cat 1.
i fear once are season gets going some one is going too get hit by a major hurricane may be more then once and giving the gulf is like a bath tub right now any storm that gets in the gulf with vary low wind shear is DOOMED for a major hurricane hit

wind shear is all most nothing on this map today this about every where

Quoting 102. weathermanwannabe:

While we have yet to reach the peak period for the Cape Verde t-waves, just noting that while the Northern part of Africa remains parched, the waves (as you have been posting) are healthy looking as they continue to cross the continent along the ITCZ. Only a matter of a few weeks when we will start to see a gradual erosion of the SAL levels closer to 10N in the vicinity of the CV islands:







I was just about to say that image you posted i saw that Africa was starting to get above average rainfall and there's the case. good work on that!

Quoting 101. Grothar:

We will have to "vet" the Atlantic carefully this season. At the "end of the day" we will have to see what we could "glean" from this. "That being said", we will all have to "double-down" and vet and re-vet.


Wow, Gro you are now the official weather attorney. You sound like a lawyer. Congrats.
Quoting 121. rmbjoe1954:
Wow, Gro you are now the official weather attorney. You sound like a lawyer. Congrats
Nah, that's news-bite-politico speak. They are lawyers, often, but it's a special idiolect. My lawyer family members don't talk like that. They aren't idiots.
Houston is keeping a high average temp without days in the upper nineties (or higher)--though those may now be upon us.
Quoting 114. Astrometeor:



KEEP, do you guys have a volcano or something up there in Canada? Seriously, you're hotter than me, and I'm in the Southern USA. You can keep it though. :P

we hit 96 almost 97 yesterday record for the day that was just air temp
some places showed heat index as high as 110 I hit 106 at my back door with index
today cooler index hit 100 1/2hr ago
cool off after sunrise tomorrow to more normal mid july temps
then big warm up comes by end of next week
that one could be the longest spell for the summer the peak I guess u could say
Quoting 119. Tazmanian:

i fear once are season gets going some one is going too get hit by a major hurricane may be more then once and giving the gulf is like a bath tub right now any storm that gets in the gulf with vary low wind shear is DOOMED for a major hurricane hit

wind shear is all most nothing on this map today this about every where


Never mind that. Why would you change your avatar??? The white water rafting speaks of bold adventure, daring and courage. It is much more synonymous with you than a covered up traffic light. Please consider changing it back. Thank you.
126. IDTH


Quoting 126. IDTH:





It's Happening
87 (87.4) WSW 19 humidex 98

corrected last post our max heat index today was 98
Hello, everyone. Good to see the regulars still here. I don't have the time these days to check in and talk weather with you fine people like I used to, but hope all is well with you!

I have, however, managed to pay attention to conditions in the Atlantic and the overall potential for this season.

From what I've gathered, this season should be vastly different from the past two seasons and possibly seasons prior to those two. The Caribbean, for once, looks primed for hurricane activity. I don't like how shear continues to run average to below average in that area.

The MDR is a coin flip, but it's not really great news if storms wait to develop until after they are out of the MDR anyway. Hurricanes that develop in the MDR typically (not always) curve out to sea. The SST anomaly configuration seems to favor a more active MDR with colder anomalies north of the MDR helping to focus upward motion in the MDR itself. We will see what happens there.

The Western portion of our basin, including the Caribbean, seems to be the most favorable area for development this season and this increases the risk for possible hurricane landfalls later. We've been in a remarkably lucky streak of no major hurricane landfalls in the US. I hope and pray this continues (and that our Caribbean friends just get beneficial rains), but the way the atmosphere and ocean are setting up tells me our luck is running out! We will see. Hope I'm wrong! :)
Quoting 125. Llamaluvr:

Never mind that. Why would you change your avatar??? The white water rafting speaks of bold adventure, daring and courage. It is much more synonymous with you than a covered up traffic light. Please consider changing it back. Thank you.



dont tell me what too do if you dont like it too bad same gos for the rest of you that my avatar and i do what i want with it i will not be changing it back sorry it was time for some in new


and tooo make you feel better i re moved the photo from my photos all to getter and i wont be adding it back has i no longer have that photo any where on my laptop
131. vis0
If you can watch CBS2 NYC check out the "time lapse of the storm that whipped by NYc and as fast as it was IT POURED ~5-8min at zip 10016. Trees down heard of 3 lightning strikes on homes in NJ.  For a quick mover it rain a great deal not much wind during the heaviest rains ~ 5 mins.
Back to weather Obs
18z GFS is not a South America crash, it has the wave move NW towards the Lesser Antilles, it is also a moderate-strong wave.
Quoting 110. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

not looking forward too the next round of heat after this
current round ends after sunrise tomorrow
next round may last anywhere
from 10 to 14 days
90+degrees with wide spread 100's that's just air temp
throw another 10 to 15 degrees on that for the humidex level
its gonna be hot real real hot

Well KOTG from our point of view over in Europe you have now been on here for 10 years and its your 10th aniversary as of the 15 of July 2016.
Congratulations and I might add that we are looking forward to the next ten years of comments from you, those of us still drawing breath that is.
From all of us over here in the PlazaRed to KOTG "feliz complianos."
Quoting 130. Tazmanian:




dont tell me what too do if you dont like it too bad same gos for the rest of you that my avatar and i do what i want with it i will not be changing it back sorry it was time for some in new


and tooo make you feel better i re moved the photo from my photos all to getter and i wont be adding it back has i no longer have that photo any where on my laptop
All I'm saying is that the yellow raft has become your brand. It's something you're known for. What if McDonald's suddenly did away with the "golden arches", or Apple changed their logo to a banana? You remember what happened when Coke tried to switch to "new" Coke? If you have something that works maybe you should consider stick with it.
I wonder how strong the seabreezes were on the North Slope. The water temperatures are in the 30s.
Quoting 136. Llamaluvr:

All I'm saying is that the yellow raft has become your brand. It's something you're known for. What if McDonald's suddenly did away with the "golden arches", or Apple changed their logo to a banana? You remember what happened when Coke tried to switch to "new" Coke? If you have something that works maybe you should consider stick with it.


not happen so i would think about droping this topic
Quoting 136. Llamaluvr:

All I'm saying is that the yellow raft has become your brand. It's something you're known for. What if McDonald's suddenly did away with the "golden arches", or Apple changed their logo to a banana? You remember what happened when Coke tried to switch to "new" Coke? If you have something that works maybe you should consider stick with it.
here taz use this one

lifeguard of the blog

Quoting 112. PedleyCA:


Hotter here(KRAL) and double the RH as you had Joe......
Ped, you got it cushey on the west coast with all that cool water to infuse your selves in and probably a passing breeze to boot as well. Hopfully not a Santa Ana?
Over in our zone in southern Europe we will probably have 44/C (111/F) or maybe 46/C (115/F) by Tuesday and no breeze not that a breeze at 44/C would be welcome! A sort of machosistical hair dryer on a vast scale.
Added to this, or that, we will also have a bad attack of SAL which will turn all the irrigated leaves of the letuces a deep shade of brown under the irrigation.
How do I, a dislectsick geriatric get a spell checker to work on Firefox browser anybody?
From deep in the heart of Andalucia at well gone midnight with temps in the air of 29/C or a mere 85/F for the new world.
Quoting 37. Climate175:



Record heat looks like a good possibility in many areas in the coming weeks.
Quoting 95. Neapolitan:

FWIW, I'm not sure of the validity of those Intellicast numbers; I don't know what's from PWSs, and what's official. But at any rate, the fact remains that Deadhorse was officially hotter yesterday than it's ever been, with the temperature topping out some 30 degrees-plus above average. That's notable. It's also notable that the barren North Slope of Alaska, a land separated from the North Pole by only a few hundred miles of open water and increasingly fractured ice floes, was warmer than parts of coastal California. Now, none of that alone means climate change was involved--but when coupled with the rapidly growing mountain of extreme weather behaviors from around the globe, it's certainly becoming easier to make a connection...


You're only off by about a thousand miles
Some breaking news out of Nice, France, where someone in a large truck apparently drove through a crowd. Don't know if it was terror related or not. At least 60 dead, at least 100 injuries, although these numbers are probably conservative.
Quoting 139. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

here taz use this one

lifeguard of the blog




cant seem too hit summit its gray out even no every thing esle is green and good too go
Quoting 138. Tazmanian:



not happen so i would think about droping this topic
This makes me sad...
Quoting 131. vis0:

If you can watch CBS2 NYC check out the "time lapse of the storm that whipped by NYc and as fast as it was IT POURED ~5-8min at zip 10016. Trees down heard of 3 lightning strikes on homes in NJ.  For a quick mover it rain a great deal not much wind during the heaviest rains ~ 5 mins.
Back to weather Obs



Friend of mine in New Jersey put a pic up on Snapchat of a fully uprooted mature tree that fell in his neighborhood.
Quoting 145. Llamaluvr:

This makes me sad...

I've got to compliment that.
This makes me sad as well and whatever the cause of it its all bad news yet again.

"Dozens of people have been killed as horrific footage shows bodies laid out on a French promenade after a truck reportedly crashed into a crowd of people celebrating Bastille Day."

Link

It does not seem to make a difference if we look at the world from a natural melting point of problems point of view, or from a human tragedy point of view. It is so long a time passed between good news nowadays.

I don't think the future is in the hands of any direction anymore, just a stride from problem to disaster and tomorrow is another day?
Quoting 143. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Some breaking news out of Nice, France, where someone in a large truck apparently drove through a crowd. Don't know if it was terror related or not. At least 60 dead, at least 100 injuries, although these numbers are probably conservative.

Now 73 being reported dead.
Quoting 148. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Now 73 being reported dead.

The probability of an event like this being accidental is in my opinion very low. There have been very few incidents where a truck on a level road as in a seafront area could have caused these kinds of casualties.
Its so sad really as these were real people just being normal and not causing anybody any problems. A public holiday like the 4th of July!
I don't discount it could have been and maybe is an accident but its an horrific story and more is to be heard about it for sure in the next few short hours.
Thoughts and hopes for the affected and their families.

I apologise for being off the topic of the blog here but its one of those times I have to vent an opinion of something that's going on not far rom where I am writing this now!
Another wound for France.I hope for a speedy recovery for the victims and that the suspect gets brought to justice.
There are reports now that two men got out the truck and starting shooting into the crowed.This was definitely not a accident.
Quoting 151. washingtonian115:

Another wound for France.I hope for a speedy recovery for the victims and that the suspect gets brought to justice.

A last note before I call it a day or night for now.
This is a link to the site of the French truck attack:-

Link
The driver was neutralized by the authorities.

Being Bastille day thousands were there for the fireworks.
Quoting 155. Patrap:

The driver was neutralized by the authorities.

Being Bastille day thousands were there for the fireworks.
More depressing news. :-(

La Nouvelle-Orléans où nous partageons la fête avec nos amis en France envoyer nos prières et lumière aimante à ceux qui souffrent là ce soir.
Quoting 100. PaulSweet:

I remember in the 1970s & 1980s the summer sky was usually very hazy in central Virginia. It looked white and visibility was seldom over 3 -4 miles. The last couple summers I've noticed blue skies and good visibility more often than I remember. I expect that pollution reduction regulations have helped clear the skies, but wonder whether more of the sun's heat gets through the atmosphere, instead of being reflected by the haze.

Until the late 1960s, I noticed the same here in the SF Bay Area. As a small child, summer skies always seemed milky white---and that was AFTER the fog burned off. Now I get behind one guy in a vintage car exempt from smog controls, and I find myself gagging. Imagine the stuff we were breathing back then and we hardly gave it a second thought.

I should add, I notice a particular milky cast to the sky in a definite layer about a week before we get rain. It's probably only a regional phenom having something to do with a moistening layer starting to lift with partial condensation, but being quickly evaporated by much drier air aloft drifting offshore from the deserts toward an incoming low.
Quoting 154. PlazaRed:


A last note before I call it a day or night for now.
This is a link to the site of the French truck attack:-

Link

Well this is where I got the report from
New York Times World ‏@nytimesworld 1h1 hour ago
Witness: Truck “crushed everyone in its path.” Then 2 men got out of the truck “and started shooting into the crowd"
Link
A good thing here as The World Institute on Disability tweeted out this about three hours ago. A link to The April Portlight entry On severe weather tips and preps for those with disabilities

Thanks to them for that.


Lots of #storms this summer! Here's #disaster prep tips for ppl w #disabilities via @PortlightRelief & @wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/blog/Portlight/severe -weather-season-readiness-for-people-with-disabili ties %u2026

4h
Nice Avatar Taz, but I never bow on a Thursday.....



Quoting 162. Patrap:

Nice Avatar Taz, but I never bow on a Thursday.....






will you bow down on a sat will you bow down with a mouse ? how about with a fox would you bow down with me with a goat how about here and there would you bow down with me in the drak would you bow down with me on a boat or train ?
Quoting 151. washingtonian115:

Another wound for France.I hope for a speedy recovery for the victims and that the suspect gets brought to justice.
Very sad indeed. Prayers and thoughts towards them.
My thoughts and prayers go out to the victims of the attacks in France and quick recovery to the injured.
Anyways on a more weathery note temperature today got up to 89 here same temperature as yesterday but much more manageable with humidity in the lower 30% as opposed to 60% and higher of yesterday.
Et une énième attaque... 78 morts... on est plus à ça près en France...
ok taz settle down avatar is cool and suits u well
Quoting 104. ACSeattle:


Climate is changing, but help4u, not so much

Makes me wonder how these downcasters will react if the Atlantic does indeed get some intense hurricanes this year. I bet they will just disappear.
Quoting 95. Neapolitan:

FWIW, I'm not sure of the validity of those Intellicast numbers; I don't know what's from PWSs, and what's official. But at any rate, the fact remains that Deadhorse was officially hotter yesterday than it's ever been, with the temperature topping out some 30 degrees-plus above average. That's notable. It's also notable that the barren North Slope of Alaska, a land separated from the North Pole by only a few hundred miles of open water and increasingly fractured ice floes, was warmer than parts of coastal California. Now, none of that alone means climate change was involved--but when coupled with the rapidly growing mountain of extreme weather behaviors from around the globe, it's certainly becoming easier to make a connection...
Not for me, Neo. The connection. Not when temps one or two degrees lower than the new record occurred 20-25 years ago. now, if the record high rises over and over every year or two or few, yeah. This is not the case. Cause and effect? Heat spiraling out of control? No, a resounding no on both questions.

What I see, not in this post by Mr. Henson but in the comments here and in "news" stories (Journalism is alive and well somewhere. I hope.) blogs and internet social media: exaggeration. Exaggeration does not help the cause you champion. Just makes people more skeptical. This Deadhorse, Alaska July 13, 2016 high temp record on its own is meaningless when taken in context of weather history and climatology.

If you don't want to believe Intellicast, maybe you'll believe NOAA stats:


and / or the Western Region Climate Center whose Deadhorse AK Airport readings 1999-2001 show high extremes between 77F-82F followed by a significant down dip. Caution. They state data may contain errors. WRCC info I found only goes back to 1999 at Deadhorse. They do have a 1986-1999 climate summary for nearby Prudhoe Bay showing similar high extremes and high averages, and downs following High extremes.


Reposting the graphics from my initial comment, to which you responded, so the graphics above can be easily compared to intellicast. AND to say, "Hey, how about that 100F at Yukon, AK in 1915. Of course Yukon's the Interior, a different story climate-wise from the near shore of the Beaufort Sea. This sea thaws enough every summer tugs and barges bring in supplies from Seattle. In fact, the Beaufort Sea near Barrow's and to the east has been thawing clear back to the old days when men hunted another kind of oil in the North - whale oil. And heck, it's probably even been thawing since "before-recording keeping began" but that's unmentionable. ;)
Quoting 79. Barefootontherocks:


image cock-a-roached from NWS Fairbanks office


image cock-a-roached from Deadhorse, AK average and record temp page at wu's sister site, Intellicast


(Please excuse me. Heard the news out of France a few moments ago, and this Deadhorse record temperature seems so trivial in comparison.)

GFS shows the EPac finally cooling down in about 10 days...when the EPac stops, that may provide a boost to the Atlantic later in the month...
The largest food area in the world is under attack.

These hot nights matter , many plants need to cool down.

We are in an new world. It's the night time temps that matter.
The sweet spot around 55W in the Caribbean looks good here for development at the beginning of August.(early start to activity?)

Quoting 170. HurricaneFan:


Makes me wonder how these downcasters will react if the Atlantic does indeed get some intense hurricanes this year. I bet they will just disappear.

They'll come back in November or never leave complaining that it wasn't a 2005 season
We should get at least one TC in the Atlantic this month. Thats the story that previous years tell.
Deadhorse Airport:

Mean Rate of Change ( °C / Century )
Raw monthly anomalies 2.50
After quality control 5.36
After breakpoint alignment 5.13

That's a steep climb.
But the earth is more than 1°F warmer than 20-25 years ago. Also, far more record highs than lows have been set this year, which has been typical of recent years. It's not that difficult to discern the hand of global warming giving a push for the new record high at Deadhorse, AK.
For perspective..CO2 ppm has risin 99ppm since my birth in Jan 1960. I'm betting I may see it go over 500 ppm before I exit sadly.



Quoting 177. PancakeState:

We should get at least one TC in the Atlantic this month. Thats the story that previous years tell.



that not all ways the case we dont end up seeing a TC every july
Well a EF0 Tornado was comfirmed by the NWS to have struck Westwood, OH yesterday. Lasted about a minute. This is about 2-3 miles south of me.... a little too close for comfort.
Link
The damage in and around the Clifton area of Cincinnati was not caused by a tornado but instead by 90-100 mph straight line winds.
Link

This comes to show you that everyone must ALWAYS be prepared with any type of thunderstorm. None of this line had any Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in effect until it had reached the East Side of Cincinnati, past where it brought most of its destruction. I dont blame the NWS for being a bit late on the warnings... but this comes to show you that the NWS will always have a margin of error and storms can turn severe on the fly.

And prayers for France.... what a horrible and despicable tragedy... :(
Sometimes I think humanity is in a race with gw or cc to see who can destroy us first. It's very sad to see the destruction of humanity by humanity, AGAIN!
It's hot and humid here in Kissimmee, but the worst of the weather passed around us.
186. IDTH
Quoting 175. unknowncomic:

The sweet spot around 55W in the Caribbean looks good here for development at the beginning of August.(early start to activity?)



Yeah that area is going to be primed for developing tropical waves around August. Reminds me a bit of 2011 where Irene took until about 55 W I believe (correct me if I'm wrong) before it started to fire a ton of convection and really organize. Irene of course took the path I feared and thankfully weakened before landfall and the worst wound up missing my area.

I think this is the season where the streak ends for the U.S major hurricane landfall drought. I especially worry if a storm takes and Andrew or Katrina path because anything that get's in the gulf will be bad news. I wouldn't be surprised if around September or October something taps that northern Caribbean hot tub. October is where I think it might happen just due to climatology, but I'm getting ahead of myself.
Quoting 175. unknowncomic:

The sweet spot around 55W in the Caribbean looks good here for development at the beginning of August.(early start to activity?)


55.5 west that's the triple nickel cat fives come from that area when they spawn in that zone
Quoting 56. Barefootontherocks:

For readings in degrees Fahrenheit, multiply the Celsius readings shown by 1.8

???
;)
Lived next door to Canada long enough to know that doesn't work.

It works for Figure 3 because the temperatures are relative anomalies, not absolute temperatures. For absolute temperatures you multiply Celsius by 1.8 and add 32 to get Fahrenheit.
Much better SST profile than last year.

Quoting 178. Naga5000:

Deadhorse Airport:

Mean Rate of Change ( %uFFFDC / Century )
Raw monthly anomalies 2.50
After quality control 5.36
After breakpoint alignment 5.13

That's a steep climb.
In context, Naga,
What do you suppose has happened at Deadhorse and environs since record-keeping began in 1968 - not even a half century ago?

I'll give you some clues. "It" started at the same time the record-keeping did, involves the influx of thousands of humans still who arrive and leave by air, and to this day produces something that must be heated in order to flow through feeder pipelines into the Trans-Alaska Pipeline.

I'm not denying the globe is warming, and I haven't ever. Truly. In fact, I've stated here several times I've seen Alaskan glaciers shrink with my own eyes over the past few decades.

What I am saying...
1) a graph like the one you posted that uses data over 40-some years claiming a C per century temp rise can't be trusted to apply over 100 years. I mean if you went back to 1916, if the records did, you might have an even steeper line. Or not.

And 2) if you took away the North Slope oil development, your graph might be flat-lined.

Context counts.

(edit: spacing; "It" link added)
Quoting 189. riverat544:


It works for Figure 3 because the temperatures are relative anomalies, not absolute temperatures. For absolute temperatures you multiply Celsius by 1.8 and add 32 to get Fahrenheit.
Thank you.
:)
Quoting 171. Barefootontherocks:

Not for me, Neo. The connection. Not when temps one or two degrees lower than the new record occurred 20-25 years ago. now, if the record high rises over and over every year or two or few, yeah. This is not the case. Cause and effect? Heat spiraling out of control? No, a resounding no on both questions.


Individual daily records are not the issue. They can happen nearly anytime with short term unusual conditions. It's easy to get caught up in arguing over individual records like that but as Naga noted in #178 it's the long term trend that is the issue.
Daily weather records

For 2016 so far in the USA

13,957 warmest maxima
18,113 warmest minima

5,282 coolest maxima
2,428 coolest mimima

For the world

29,658 warmest maxima
34,797 warmest minima

7,919 coolest maxima
5,160 coolest minima

When was the last year the USA had more cold records than warm records? And the same for the world? These questions should keep someone busy ;)
Cody showed me this beautiful eye candy:



Yes please. With a cherry on top? :D
And yeah, sorry to hear about France. There's a terrorist attack all the time now.

Upper level moisture streaming toward the northern California coast from Celia, with associated high clouds indicated on the infrared pic. Weak midlevel low churning off the So Cal coast not entraining any midlevel moisture---too dry at the midlevels---but there's always a chance dynamics could kick in. A midlatitude trough is supposed to drop south along the coast over the next few days, which also may---low odds---interact with the plume from Celia. Meanwhile, the low level whorl is supposed to continue on north of Hawaii, but still kicking up surf in the islands.
Quoting 190. CaribBoy:

Much better SST profile than last year.



I wonder if those waves of alternating cool and warm SSTs along the EPac equatorial zone have always been there during non El Nino periods, and that maybe we only notice them now because of the better resolution of our sensor array. They appear very dynamic, perhaps a result of current flow shear downstream of the South American Humboldt Current, with the shear churning up upwelling. The cause can't be the wind since the ITCZ is further north.
Quoting 170. HurricaneFan:


Makes me wonder how these downcasters will react if the Atlantic does indeed get some intense hurricanes this year. I bet they will just disappear.
'S what usually happens. Only one or two stick around after the normal seasonal uptick in storms.

Quoting 172. HurricaneFan:


GFS shows the EPac finally cooling down in about 10 days...when the EPac stops, that may provide a boost to the Atlantic later in the month...
I tend to think of this as less a "cause-effect" relationship than a correlation .... a coin-flip thing, with high activity on one side equaling low activity on the other ....
Quoting 188. hydrus:


Looking pretty good .... now for splashdown ....
Good morning all ...





Looks like we have a good chance at that F-named storm in the EPac by next week .... does that tie or pass the July record?



From TAFB, 2 a.m.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper low in the northwest Caribbean is generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Bahamas to the
Greater Antilles between 71W-80W. An upper trough north of the
discussion area is supporting a cold front that dips south into
the central Atlantic through 32N39W to 30N45W then northwest
beyond 32N51W. Isolated showers are possible along the frontal
boundary. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the remainder of
the Atlantic tonight. A surface ridge extends through 32N27W
south of the above front to a 1023 mb high near 29N53W, then
westward to a weak 1020 mb high near 29N73W, continuing west
across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. This surface
ridge will gradually move north of the area late in the weekend.
Fresh to locally strong winds will develop Friday along the
north coast of Hispaniola and the northern approach to the
Windward Passage, then continue during the late afternoon and
evening hours through the weekend.

This is the AEW which the GFS is hinting at development with ...
205. MahFL
Quoting 202. BahaHurican:

Looks like we have a good chance at that F-named storm in the EPac by next week .... does that tie or pass the July record?






7 (G) is the record. And good morning.
Quoting 205. MahFL:



7 (G) is the record. And good morning.
Hmmm.... not so sure we'll make it to H, even though we still have 15 days to go.

The 6Z GFS brings that wave currently exiting the continent to the Lessers as a 1012 closed low, then seems to dissipate it over the ECar ... so that and the two waves ahead of it are potentially grist for the EPac mill.

Perhaps H is not out of reach after all ....
The GFS hinting at some developement of a wave coming off Africa right now
Quoting 207. James1981cane:

The GFS hinting at some developement of a wave coming off Africa right now
Also suggesting increased moisture / instability in the W ATL over the next 10 days .... it's not making much of the Twave for now, since it seems to die off in the ECar death zone ....
good morning...I posted my numbers for this season earlier in June... im goin with 13-6-3.. does that seem reasonable?. Im really fearing we may have more home grown type storms..and with the gulf and carribean ssts could be very bad
itz?....its.alive
Quoting 208. BahaHurican:

Also suggesting increased moisture / instability in the W ATL over the next 10 days .... it's not making much of the Twave for now, since it seems to die off in the ECar death zone ....


True i think we need to watch this and convection is firing near 40 west
Quoting 207. James1981cane:

The GFS hinting at some developement of a wave coming off Africa right now
It shows that the wave will obtain a low pressure area of 1012mb, which is as deep as it gets when it nears the Lesser Antilles, we will see if that changes or stays the same.
Greetings from sunny Antigua. Watching the tropics with keen interest especially the upcoming months of August & September.
Have a great day everyone!!
Quoting 202. BahaHurican:

Looks like we have a good chance at that F-named storm in the EPac by next week .... does that tie or pass the July record?






that is 98E wish is forecast too be come Estelle and i think after Estelle un less the gfs and other model runs are showing frank i think the E PAC will really start slowing down and shutting down after Estelle has i see nothing else in the E PAC right now that would be come frank and nothing else on the tropic weather out look that says will see frank with in the next 5 days so Estelle may be the last named storm for the E PAC for a while un less model runs show other wise
Good Morning Folks: the E-Pac takes the cake for this morning in 2016. An E-Pac storm cluster like we often see during the Atlantic CV season.  As noted yesterday by another blogger, these storms really pop closer to land then loose intensity quickly a few days later after they hit the colder waters to the NW.


little bit of mjo look at the itz today. there are actually thunderstorms
That is a nice looking wave for this time of the year; it might not develop after splash down into a depression but will contribute some additional moisture along the ITCZ for those that start to follow over the next several weeks:




Quoting 212. Climate175:



Sheesh.. you'd think we're in the hurricane season... oh wait... :)
Happy Friday all!
Quoting 191. Barefootontherocks:

In context, Naga,
What do you suppose has happened at Deadhorse and environs since record-keeping began in 1968 - not even a half century ago?

I'll give you some clues. "It" started at the same time the record-keeping did, involves the influx of thousands of humans still who arrive and leave by air, and to this day produces something that must be heated in order to flow through feeder pipelines into the Trans-Alaska Pipeline.

I'm not denying the globe is warming, and I haven't ever. Truly. In fact, I've stated here several times I've seen Alaskan glaciers shrink with my own eyes over the past few decades.

What I am saying...
1) a graph like the one you posted that uses data over 40-some years claiming a C per century temp rise can't be trusted to apply over 100 years. I mean if you went back to 1916, if the records did, you might have an even steeper line. Or not.

And 2) if you took away the North Slope oil development, your graph might be flat-lined.

Context counts.

(edit: spacing; "It" link added)


Sure it does,

Regional expectation during same months 5.05 1.76

In line with other observations in the region. Also confidence intervals are important. We can certainly make per century claims, the confidence intervals will just be large. Thanks for trying, as always.
Don't hate me for being blessed to live in a really nice place. Played hooky from work yesterday to hang out at the beach with my wife. Thunderstorms to the east and west of us all day. Humidity was a reasonable 60% with air temps at 92. Water is still slightly refreshing at 80 and there was a consistent light breeze off the water that was the cherry on top. Wish you all could have been there! (Santa Rosa Beach, FL)
Wake me up when July ends.
The GFS tried to briefly close off the wave in the eastern caribbean before it killed it (I presume it from being due to trades or dry air..or a combination from both) .Anything that gets in the caribbean will have to be watched this year as ample bath water is waiting for something to come along and take advantage of it.
Wow, almost makes me feel guilty with a low of 61 this morning here in inland Orange County, California. A thick marine had a ceiling of maybe 2000 feet at least 10 miles inland to Mt. Santiago. We've had a mild summer so far due to the marine layer incursion every morning.
Quoting 218. Tazmanian:


Great job with the new avatar Taz !!!
Quoting 4. Astrometeor:

Repost from last blog.



Closest approach to the sun occurs in the Northern Hemisphere's winter. That's a 3.1 million mile difference between winter and summer for the USA. January 2 was closest approach, and July 4 was the farthest from the Sun that the Earth gets.

One other thing to keep in mind about this is that when the Earth is closer in its orbit to the Sun it is traveling faster than when it is farther away. That means the Southern Hemisphere summer is a few days shorter than the Northern Hemisphere summer. From Wikepedia:

These "astronomical" seasons are not of equal length, because of the elliptical nature of the orbit of the Earth, as discovered by Johannes Kepler. From the March equinox it currently takes 92.75 days until the June solstice, then 93.65 days until the September equinox, 89.85 days until the December solstice and finally 88.99 days until the March equinox.

I explain the orbit around Sol when I speak on it...as we have a 365.25 day orbital period.

That's why we add a leap day every 4 years like this one.


It is known a Perfect circle is 360 degrees.


5.25 is the elliptical difference in days.


If some of you can do me a huge favor today...please check out the portlight featured blog entry and wish our guest blogger a special wunderground birthday.

She is a tireless supporter of the port light mission .

So please take the time to wish Jessica a Happy Birthday by leaving a comment there.

Thank you all.

Patrick


Fellow WUer Celebrating Upcoming Birthday by Fundraising for Portlight!
By: Portlight , 4:36 PM CDT on June 15, 2016

Dust ahead of it could be worse.
Monday's Forecast from TAFB ...



Long range I suppose these three Twaves would go on to become F, G, and H storms in the EPac .... certainly there's enough time for them to do so before the end of the month. I'm noting, though, that while that high is pretty broad and the ridge is firmly in place over the US, Twaves are riding a bit higher than we were seeing even last week ....
233. bwi
If you're fascinated by Arctic sea ice changes like I am, the USCG has an icebreaker now nearing 75n latitude with a webcam that updates every hour.

http://icefloe.net/Aloftcon_Photos/index.php?albu m=2016



Quoting 226. canyonboy:

Wow, almost makes me feel guilty with a low of 61 this morning here in inland Orange County, California. A thick marine had a ceiling of maybe 2000 feet at least 10 miles inland to Mt. Santiago. We've had a mild summer so far due to the marine layer incursion every morning.


At least you are on the ocean side of that range of Mtns.
Quoting 224. George1938:

Wake me up when July ends.


Ok it's the end of july
Quoting 232. BahaHurican:

Monday's Forecast from TAFB ...



Long range I suppose these three Twaves would go on to become F, G, and H storms in the EPac .... certainly there's enough time for them to do so before the end of the month. I'm noting, though, that while that high is pretty broad and the ridge is firmly in place over the US, Twaves are riding a bit higher than we were seeing even last week ....
Good morning Baha...That pattern is unsettling. I Hope it changes before the heart of the season. I believe when August arrives there will be 3 named storms in rather quick succession. A lull will commence, then the MJO returns sometime in September for the next batch...jmo
Quoting 223. JNFlori30A:

Don't hate me for being blessed to live in a really nice place. Played hooky from work yesterday to hang out at the beach with my wife. Thunderstorms to the east and west of us all day. Humidity was a reasonable 60% with air temps at 92. Water is still slightly refreshing at 80 and there was a consistent light breeze off the water that was the cherry on top. Wish you all could have been there! (Santa Rosa Beach, FL)



I'm happy in the Mid Atlantic and my wishes are for a cooler, not warmer climate with somewhat more winter snow and less miserable, soul sucking, mind destroying summers. But my family roots are here and I'm staying where I've lived most of my life.
Quoting 174. RobertWC:

These hot nights matter , many plants need to cool down.

We are in an new world. It's the night time temps that matter.


Plants respire faster in warm temperatures and can't make carbohydrates at night so have to get through a long hot night with no food. Long days and short nights make for higher yields of many crops and the saying " a bushel a day after the 15'th of May" also applies to the southern part of the corn belt where frost isn't an issue. Shorter days during the growing period with later planting is. The rule even holds in LA/MS (something I read in college)
Quoting 223. JNFlori30A:

Don't hate me for being blessed to live in a really nice place. Played hooky from work yesterday to hang out at the beach with my wife. Thunderstorms to the east and west of us all day. Humidity was a reasonable 60% with air temps at 92. Water is still slightly refreshing at 80 and there was a consistent light breeze off the water that was the cherry on top. Wish you all could have been there! (Santa Rosa Beach, FL)
To bad where letting it all be destroyed by pollution. enjoy while you can because its getting dirtier and dirtier and our current crop of politicians are just happy to let that happen.
Quoting 238. georgevandenberghe:



Plants respire faster in warm temperatures and can't make carbohydrates at night so have to get through a long hot night with no food. Long days and short nights make for higher yields of many crops and the saying " a bushel a day after the 15'th of May" also applies to the southern part of the corn belt where frost isn't an issue. Shorter days during the growing period with later planting is. The rule even holds in LA/MS (something I read in college)

Our local extension office is getting a lot of calls about tomatoes not ripening. The nights are just too hot. Extension office is recommending people bring the fully-formed green ones inside to cool them off and see if they'll ripen there.

My tomatoes are in part shade, and they seem to be doing fine, but people who have them in full sun are having problems.
According to our pro mets drought could continue for the next few month...

Omg, depressing.
242. elioe
Quoting 229. Patrap:

I explain the orbit around Sol when I speak on it...as we have a 365.25 day orbital period.

That's why we add a leap day every 4 years like this one.


It is known a Perfect circle is 360 degrees.


5.25 is the elliptical difference in days.





Actually, it's 365.2425 days. That's why those years divisible by 100 but not by 400 are not leap years. And the amount of days in a year have nothing to do with the eccentricity of Earth's orbit, nor with the amount of degrees in full circle. It has to do only with the ratio of orbital period and rotational period (366.2425, note: the Sun makes one circle in relation to the stars in one years, that's why the amount of days is one less)
dont fret carib boy. there might be a few slow moving tropical systems upcoming months.
244. IDTH
.
245. IDTH
If anyone here is serious into meteorology, this may interest you.


Quoting 240. gunhilda:


Our local extension office is getting a lot of calls about tomatoes not ripening. The nights are just too hot. Extension office is recommending people bring the fully-formed green ones inside to cool them off and see if they'll ripen there.

My tomatoes are in part shade, and they seem to be doing fine, but people who have them in full sun are having problems.


It is the sun's UV rays that are damaging all plants. Trees are dying also and I can only imagine what it will be like in the next few years. I can feel the intense heat on my exposed skin even in the winter month's.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 8m
GFS predicting strongest African easterly wave of the season to emerge this weekend o/Africa.
Quoting 247. washingtonian115:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 8m
GFS predicting strongest African easterly wave of the season to emerge this weekend o/Africa.
The one that's coming off now?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 242. elioe:



Actually, it's 365.2425 days. That's why those years divisible by 100 but not by 400 are not leap years. And the amount of days in a year have nothing to do with the eccentricity of Earth's orbit, nor with the amount of degrees in full circle. It has to do only with the ratio of orbital period and rotational period (366.2425, note: the Sun makes one circle in relation to the stars in one years, that's why the amount of days is one less)
If we keep having big earthquakes, then a year will be 365.2425 + the time it takes a Cesium-133 atom at the ground state to oscillate exactly 9,192,631,770 times...Throw in a few more Milankovich Cycles and we wont need clocks.
Quoting 236. hydrus:

Good morning Baha...That pattern is unsettling. I Hope it changes before the heart of the season. I believe when August arrives there will be 3 named storms in rather quick succession. A lull will commence, then the MJO returns sometime in September for the next batch...jmo
Part of the reason I am commenting is that I feel a similar concern. Granted this is a fairly typical July pattern, yet given the recent trend toward highs getting stuck in place for months at a time, I feel we aren't guaranteed a typical shift NE as is usually seen by mid-August. This kind of ridging in ASO almost guarantees a major strike to Central America, Mexico, Texas, or one of the other Gulf states. Even a slight shift northward puts most of the Antilles and the Bahamas in play.
Certainly the current setup deserves a good bit of attention.
Quoting 223. JNFlori30A:
Don't hate me for being blessed to live in a really nice place. Played hooky from work yesterday to hang out at the beach with my wife. Thunderstorms to the east and west of us all day. Humidity was a reasonable 60% with air temps at 92. Water is still slightly refreshing at 80 and there was a consistent light breeze off the water that was the cherry on top. Wish you all could have been there! (Santa Rosa Beach, FL)


Gotta love the area we live in! Tomorrow I'll be at Quietwater Beach via boat for the Blue Angels show over the water, hopefully we can avoid the afternoon thunderstorms and get the show in!
On a completely unrelated note, Travel & Leisure Magazine posted their best of everything lists this week. Kudos to Patrick and the rest of the NOLA gang for garnering #7 Best City Worldwide and #2 Best City CONUS along with the #7 Best Hotel Worldwide in Old #77 Hotel & Chandlery. Good on ya...