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Two EF-5 tornadoes confirmed from last week's outbreak; record Ohio River flood

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:23 PM GMT on May 02, 2011

Damage surveys and the hunt for missing victims continues today in the areas devastated by last week's historic tornado outbreak. With the death toll in the 340 - 350 range, the April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak has surpassed the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak (315 killed) as the deadliest U.S. tornado outbreak of the past 50 years. Hardest hit was Alabama, with 249 deaths; Tennessee and Mississippi had 34 deaths each, and deaths were also reported in Arkansas, Georgia, Virginia, Louisiana, and Ontario, Canada. Twenty-eight separate tornadoes killed people. According wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, in his post The World's Deadliest Tornadoes, only the death toll of the great Tri-State tornado outbreak of 1925 (747 killed) and the 1936 Tupelo-Gainsville tornado outbreak (454 killed) were greater. These outbreaks both occurred during an era before Doppler radar and tornado warnings. Had last week's outbreak occurred back in those days, I expect the death toll would have been in the thousands. The National Weather Service provided warning times of 15 - 30 minutes for all of last week's killer storms, allowing time for most people to get to safe shelters.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image from NASA's Aqua satellite taken on Friday, April 29, 2011, showing the damage paths of three of Wednesday's tornadoes in Alabama.


Figure 2. Damage paths of Wednesday's tornadoes as compiled by the National Weather Service office in Birmingham, Alabama.

Damage surveys will continue for another week, so it is uncertain exactly how many tornadoes were spawned in last week's outbreak. The confirmed count is already at 146, which would make it the 4th largest tornado outbreak in history. The total is likely to surpass the 155 confirmed tornadoes logged during the April 14 - 16, 2011 tornado outbreak. According to a list of tornado outbreaks maintained by Wikipedia, only two other tornado outbreaks have had as many as 150 twisters--the May 2004 outbreak (385), and the May 2003 outbreak (401). So, remarkably, two of the top four outbreaks in history occurred within two weeks of each other. In addition, the period from 8am April 27 - 8am April 28 during last week's outbreak has a good chance of breaking the record for most tornadoes in a 24-hour period, which is currently 148 (set in the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.)

Two EF-5 tornadoes confirmed
Damage surveys have confirmed that last week's April 25 - 28 outbreak spawned at least eleven violent EF-4 tornadoes (winds 166 - 200 mph) and two EF-5 tornadoes (winds greater than 200 mph.) This is only the 5th time since tornado ratings began in 1950 that two top-end tornadoes have occurred on the same day. The last time was on March 13, 1990 in Kansas. An EF-5 with 205 mph winds hit Smithville, Mississippi at 3:44pm EDT on Wednesday. The tornado's path was only 3 miles long, but was 1/2 miles wide and did extreme damage. Fifteen were killed, 40 injured, and 166 buildings destroyed. Some well-built modern 2-story homes that were bolted to their foundations were completely destroyed, leaving only the foundation. This type of damage is characteristic of an EF-5 tornado with 205 mph winds. The Smithville tornado is the first EF-5 tornado in Mississippi since the Candlestick Park tornado of March 3, 1966. The other EF-5 tornado of the day, the Hackleburg tornado, touched down in Northwest Alabama in Marion County at 3pm CDT, and devastated the towns of Phil Campbell and Hackleburg. This tornado killed at least 25 people. Meteorologist Gary Dobbs, with WAAY-TV since 1984, spotted this tornado from his car and was unable to get to his storm shelter. While his house was destroyed around him, Dobbs was thrown 40 feet from the house. The door of the storm shelter blew off, and none of the friends therein were seriously injured. Dobbs required hospitalization. One other tornado that may get an EF-5 rating is the violent Tuscaloosa/Birmingham tornado, which killed at least 66 people and injured over 1000. It was the deadliest tornado in the U.S. since 1955, when 80 people died in Udall, Kansas. This tornado had a path length of 80.3 miles, and has been preliminarily rated at high-end EF-4 with 190 mph winds. The Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado is likely to be the most expensive tornado of all-time, and damage from the April 25 - 28 outbreak is likely rank as the most expensive tornado outbreak in history. Insured damages have been rated at $2 - $5 billion, and uninsured losses will be several billion more. The previous most expensive tornado outbreak in history was the $3.5 billion price tag, in 2005 dollars, of the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak .


Figure 3. Radar reflectivity image of the Hackleburg, Alabama tornado of April 27, 2011, a few minutes after it devastated the town of Hackleburg, Alabama (white cross at center of image.) The Hackleburg tornado was rated an EF-5 with greater than 200 mph winds.


Figure 4. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Beginning at about 2:30 into the video, one can see the ominous mini-vorticies and cloud of debris that encircled the tornado.

Unprecedented flooding on Ohio River
Last week's storm system, in combination with heavy rains earlier this month and over past 24 hours, pushed the Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois to 60.6 feet at 1am CDT May 1. This is the highest flood in history, besting the 59.5' mark of 1937. Additional heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches are expected over the next five days, and the river is not expected to crest until Wednesday, at a height of 61.5 feet. As the record flood waters from the Ohio River pour into the Mississippi and are joined by melt water from the this winter's record snow pack over the Upper Mississippi, all-time flood heights are likely to be exceeded at many points along a 400-mile stretch of the Mississippi below its confluence with the Ohio. I'll have a more detailed look in my next post.

Jeff Masters
Bartow County Georgia Tornado Damage 10
Bartow County Georgia Tornado Damage 10
April 28th, 2011

Flood Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good Morning.
Thanks for the new blog.

Lots going on.........
Thanks for the update.
Incredible damage.


Thank you, Doc.

Good morning, folks.
New day a new disaster and a New Dawn, we do live in interesting times.
Incredible that the tornado tracks can be seen so clearly from space. You can actually see how the tornadoes varied in width, especially the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham tornado.
The ITCZ was going off the night this plane went down..

Situation Update No. 11
On 02.05.2011 at 03:05 GMT+2

France's air accident investigation agency says an undersea search has located the flight data recorder from the 2009 Air France flight that went down in the mid-Atlantic. In a statement, the BEA said the so-called black box was "localized and identified" on Sunday morning. The statement included photos of the recorder — a cylinder partially buried in sand on the sea floor. Investigators hope the recorder will help determine what caused the June 1, 2009, crash of Flight 447 from Rio de Janeiro to Paris. The data and voice recorders, though coloured dark orange, are referred to as "black boxes." All 228 people aboard were killed when the aircraft plunged into a remote area of the Atlantic during a thunderstorm. BEA officials have warned that the recordings may yet prove unusable, considering the pressure they were subjected to for two years. "We can't say in advance that we're going to be able to read it until it's been opened," a BEA spokeswoman. The flight data recorder stores technical data from the flight. Another so-called black box records cockpit conversations. The second black box has not yet been found, but the submarine probes were continuing, the spokeswoman said.
The biggest difference I see is that both the May 2003 and May 2004 events were outbreak sequences--that is, a closely-spaced series of individual tornado outbreaks. The May 2003 event lasted twelve days and consisted of five separate outbreaks, while the May 2004 event took place over nine days and consisted of two main outbreaks and several other smaller ones.

In terms of single outbreaks, last week's will almost certainly go down as the uncontested leader both in terms of overall number of tornadoes and the most in a 24-hour period; the NWS estimates there were 312 tornadoes over the three-day duration of the event, and a whopping 226 from 8:00 AM Wednesday to 8:00 AM Thursday alone. Even if those numbers come down as the surveys are completed--as they are expected to--they're not likely to drop the outbreak from first place, since the actual three-day total would have to be lowered by 51% from the estimate, and the 24-hour total by 35%, whereas the average is just 15% (which would leave a final tally of 265 overall tornadoes, and 192 for the 24 hours).

So to repeat what Dr. Masters said: two of the top four outbreaks in history have occurred within two weeks of each other. And all four at the top have taken place in just the last eight years.

Incredible times...
Quoting Gearsts:


notice 2008 and 2011 is similar right also notice to the islands were cooler than of this year and i the eastern pacific is very similar
from last blog:

Quoting BahaHurican:
"...From that map, the MO area that is supposed to be flooded by the COE move is part of the natural flood plain of the Mississippi.... I'm not saying it's not bad what they're doing... I'm just saying it's only because of the COE that those farmers are able to live and farm on that land on a regular basis in the first place. It sure would make life a lot easier further upstream if they could just let that land be flooded every time the water gets high....

It's just another comment in the lines of "why do you live there if you know it floods / gets hit by tornadoes / has earthquakes / is a hurricane magnet" and so on.... you gotta live somewhere, right?

If I had to choose, I'd breach on both sides... then everybody would be mad at COE and be neighbourly in their angst.... :o) [aka wisdom of Solomon]..."


And if I lived downstream, I'd sue the people that are trying to keep that levee intact.

If the COE has determined that section would protect downstream areas, why should a small group of individuals decide if their small amount of land was more important that the thousands of properties that can be saved?
OH BOY

Charlie Sheen coming to Tuscaloosa today

Published: Monday, May 2, 2011 at 6:32 a.m.
Last Modified: Monday, May 2, 2011 at 6:32 a.m.

Wayward sitcom star Charlie Sheen is coming to Tuscaloosa today to tour the tornado ravaged city.

Sheen confirmed his plans in a post on Twitter. "Alabama; Heading your way. On a recon mission. My Cadre right behind me. You need help. I'm bringing it. DogSpeed."

A Sheen fan first Tweeted, "Tuscaloosa get excited the warlock himself @charliesheen is coming to pay respects to our glorious town tomorrow." Sheen replied, "Thanks."

The Tuscaloosa News has confirmed Sheen's planned visit independently, but no itinerary of his visit has been released.


look how near the islands is cooler



and this is warmer and the eastern pacific is similar
Quoting emcf30:
OH BOY

Charlie Sheen coming to Tuscaloosa today

Published: Monday, May 2, 2011 at 6:32 a.m.
Last Modified: Monday, May 2, 2011 at 6:32 a.m.

Wayward sitcom star Charlie Sheen is coming to Tuscaloosa today to tour the tornado ravaged city.

Sheen confirmed his plans in a post on Twitter. "Alabama; Heading your way. On a recon mission. My Cadre right behind me. You need help. I'm bringing it. DogSpeed."

A Sheen fan first Tweeted, "Tuscaloosa get excited the warlock himself @charliesheen is coming to pay respects to our glorious town tomorrow." Sheen replied, "Thanks."

The Tuscaloosa News has confirmed Sheen's planned visit independently, but no itinerary of his visit has been released.

I heard that when the news of Sheen's visit was announced to Tuscaloosans, they groaned and asked whether they could just have another tornado instead.


Black River Flooding
Quoting Neapolitan:

I heard that when the news of Sheen's visit was announced to Tuscaloosans, they groaned and asked whether they could have another tornado instead.


What a Idiot he is, LOL
Insane

WTI Crude Oil
$114.50
As Bin Laden is dead, the threat of realiation and strikes on oil fields playing a role.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The biggest difference I see is that both the May 2003 and May 2004 events were outbreak sequences--that is, a closely-spaced series of individual tornado outbreaks. The May 2003 event lasted twelve days and consisted of five separate outbreaks, while the May 2004 event took place over nine days and consisted of two main outbreaks and several other smaller ones.

In terms of single outbreaks, last week's will almost certainly go down as the uncontested leader both in terms of overall number of tornadoes and the most in a 24-hour period; the NWS estimates there were 312 tornadoes over the three-day duration of the event, and a whopping 226 from 8:00 AM Wednesday to 8:00 AM Thursday alone. Even if those numbers come down as the surveys are completed--as they are expected to--they're not likely to drop the outbreak from first place, since the actual three-day total would have to be lowered by 51% from the estimate, and the 24-hour total by 35%, whereas the average is just 15% (which would leave a final tally of 265 overall tornadoes, and 192 for the 24 hours).

So to repeat what Dr. Masters said: two of the top four outbreaks in history have occurred within two weeks of each other. And all four at the top have taken place in just the last eight years.

Incredible times...


I believe those numbers are from preliminary reports, Neap. No argument that this was an extremely devastating and deadly outbreak. Posted this last night right before some "other" news jumped to front and center.

From your post (from this link I believe)
NOAA April 2011 Tornado Information

NOAA's preliminary estimate is that there were 312 tornadoes during the entire outbreak from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 26 to 8:00 a.m. April 28, 2011.

This number is a pretty close match to the 3-day total of preliminary storm reports which are not confirmed tornadoes. For the 26th through the 28th:
86 on the 26th
226 on the 27th
14 on the 28th

Total 326
April Monthly Storm Reports

Preliminary Storm Reports
04/26/11
04/27/11
04/28/11

Also:

During the 24-hour period from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 27 to 8:00 a.m. EDT April 28, The National Weather Service (NWS) estimates there were a total of 266 tornadoes.

This compares almost one-to-one to the current talley of preliminary tornado reports at 267 for the 27th.

And:

NWS%u2019s preliminary estimate is that there have been 881 tornadoes so far this year.

The total number of preliminary storm reports stands at 871

Despite your source, press releases are sometimes out of sequence with reality. Look it over, see what you think.

Numbers from this post can be accessed from the link provided above. Click the US map Labeled "Monthly Tornado Weather Summary" near the bottom right of the page.
Complete Update





Greetings from Ringgold GA and Apison TN. The damage here is tremendous as we have confirmed an EF4 tornado in this area.

My family and I are safe and uninjured however there were several friends and families just less than 5 to 7 miles away who lost their homes and businesses.

Downtown Ringgold and the schools were obliterated.

I appreciate any prayers for these areas.

NOAA King Air aircraft has released high resolution images of the tornado damage in Alabama. The images (available by clicking on the red boxes on the map at this link), cover 345 square miles in Alabama (275 square miles in the Tuscaloosa to Birmingham corridor, and 70 square miles in the vicinity of Cordova).

Link
Quoting Neapolitan:

I heard that when the news of Sheen's visit was announced to Tuscaloosans, they groaned and asked whether they could just have another tornado instead.

I'm trying to figure out why Sheen thinks he is all that and a bag of chips.
Flash Flood Warning posted due to breech in the levee in Alexander Co. Illinois near Thebes.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
ILC003-022100-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FF.W.0065.110502T1500Z-110502T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1000 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
ALEXANDER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT MONDAY.

* AT 954 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A BREECH IN THE
FAYETTEVILLE LEVEE JUST SOUTH OF THE RAILROAD BRIDGE AT THEBES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLOODING THAT WILL LIKELY CLOSE PARTS OF
HIGHWAY 3. IT WILL ALSO AFFECT THE COMMUNITIES OF OLIVE BRANCH AND
EVENTUALLY CAIRO.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
OLIVE BRANCH...
HORSESHOE LAKE CONSERVATION AREA...
TAMMS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 8919 3709 8927 3708 8931 3703 8926
3700 8928 3705 8938 3709 8938 3714 8943
3725 8946 3728 8952 3733 8950 3734 8925
3731 8921 3722 8927 3713 8927 3709 8918
3699 8914

$$

Morning, wish that rain could get pushed further south.
Bad times.
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Greetings from Ringgold GA and Apison TN. The damage here is tremendous as we have confirmed an EF4 tornado in this area.

My family and I are safe and uninjured however there were several friends and families just less than 5 to 7 miles away who lost their homes and businesses.

Downtown Ringgold and the schools were obliterated.

I appreciate any prayers for these areas.



My continuing thoughts and prayers for all those in your area and all other areas affected. So glad to hear you and your family are safe. Take good care :)
Yeah, I saw you had mentioned last night--shortly before that "other" news--that the counts on the NOAA page were preliminary, as I have also stated that they were preliminary estimates on more than one occasion. But that page from which my numbers were pulled is from the overall, NOAA one updated around noon each day, which itself pulls from the various regional NWS offices covering areas affected by the outbreak and listed at the bottom of that page.

The individual SPC counts you mentioned are constantly adjusted as surveys come in, and represent the best knowledge that has been gathered. The number of storm reports on those SPC pages changes with time, but they don't necessarily always go down; NWS researchers can use radar, satellite, and on-site observations to increase those numbers. It's true the SPC and NOAA numbers aren't always in perfect unison until several weeks have passed, but with each new day's surveys, the numbers on both the SPC and NOAA pages are tweaked and refined and move ever closer to finalization.

And I say all that to again say this: there's very little doubt in my mind that last week's outbreak will go down as number one in both overall number of tornadoes for a single event and number of tornadoes for a single 24-hour period. After several days of intense scrutiny and numerous survyes, the actual counts are simply not likely to drop by any huge numbers.
By JOE BARRETT

CAPE GIRARDEAU, Mo.—Heavy rains overnight lifted the river level at Cairo, Ill., Monday morning to nearly a foot and a half beyond its 1937 record, as U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continued to pack a Missouri levee with explosives to prepare to activate an emergency floodway.

On Sunday, Justice Samuel Alito of the U.S. Supreme Court rejected a request by Missouri to stop the Corps from blowing a two-mile-wide hole in a levee at Birds Point, Mo. The move would send a wall of water over 130,000 acres of prime farmland and the homes of about 200 people. Residents were ordered to evacuate last week.

Also Sunday, Army Corps engineers were ordered to begin pumping explosives into pipes inside the levee.

Complete Article Link

Facebook Link to Birds Point New Madrid Floodway Joint Information Center. Link
Photos of pumping explosive slurry in pipes under levee
Rumors are the are going ahead and blowing it at 13:00hrs.
Emergency personnel report breach in Fayetteville levee
Monday, May 2, 2011 ~ Updated 10:28 AM
Southeast Missourian
THEBES, Ill. -- Emergency management in Alexander County, Ill. reported just before 10 a.m. today a breach at a levee in Fayetteville just south of the railroad bridge near Thebes.

This could cause more flooding in Olive Branch, Tamms and possibly, Cairo, Ill. The flooding will likely close Highway 3, according to the National Weather Service in Paducah, Ky.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers spokesman Jim Pogue said around 10:15 a.m. he was unaware of the breach, but it would likely be a factor in Maj. Gen. Michael Walsh's decision on the Birds Point-New Madrid flood way.

Top corps officials are scheduled to give a briefing at 11 a.m. and Pogue said the decision to breach the Birds Point levee will be made following the meeting.

25. ILwthrfan 3:04 PM GMT on May 02, 2011

AT 954 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A BREECH IN THE
FAYETTEVILLE LEVEE JUST SOUTH OF THE RAILROAD BRIDGE AT THEBES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLOODING THAT WILL LIKELY CLOSE PARTS OF
HIGHWAY 3. IT WILL ALSO AFFECT THE COMMUNITIES OF OLIVE BRANCH AND
EVENTUALLY CAIRO.

Does this make dynamiting the levee to save Cairo a moot issue?
Quoting jeffs713:

I'm trying to figure out why Sheen thinks he is all that and a bag of chips.

While I am entertained by the sitcom, I find the reality-show to be quite depressing.
The AHPS just raised forecast crests on locations along the lower Ohio River by 2-4 feet! Paducah is expected to crest just two feet below the 1937 record now.
View stage forecasts here.
Entire town of Cairo, Ill. evacuated by massive flood threat; Ohio River surges after record rains


36. Irth
Quoting jeffs713:

I'm trying to figure out why Sheen thinks he is all that and a bag of chips.


Here is his logic:

1) When you get high, you get the munchies.
2) You are what you eat.
3) Charlie Sheen has been so high for so long that he has eaten 'all that and a bag of chips'...
4) Therefore he can decidely conclude that yes, he is in fact all that and a bag of chips.
Is it just me, or are things speeding up and outta control??

Levees breaching, flooding, blowing up levees with dynamite, Tornado outbreak, historical drought in middle of country, blizzard yesterday in the Dakotas, Royal wedding, Middle East turmoil,Kadafi son killed, Bin laden killed, Earthquakes, Tsunamis, gas/oil prices outta control,
Quoting RitaEvac:
Is it just me, or are things speeding up and outta control??

Levees breaching, flooding, blowing up levees with dynamite, Tornado outbreak, historical drought in middle of country, blizzard yesterday in the Dakotas, Royal wedding, Middle East turmoil,Kadafi son killed, Bin laden killed, Earthquakes, Tsunamis, gas/oil prices outta control,


Nah, just better communications. Ya gotta love it when ya get the latest news from Facebook or Twitter.
Quoting Irth:


Here is his logic:

1) When you get high, you get the munchies.
2) You are what you eat.
3) Charlie Sheen has been so high for so long that he has eaten 'all that and a bag of chips'...
4) Therefore he can decidely conclude that yes, he is in fact all that and a bag of chips.

And by that logic, since I don't really care for chips... I don't care about Charlie Sheen?
Quoting SQUAWK:


Nah, just better communications. Ya gotta love it when ya get the latest news from Facebook or Twitter.


If you want up to date information, the social network is the was to go. Truly amazing
Quoting RitaEvac:
Is it just me, or are things speeding up and outta control??

Levees breaching, flooding, blowing up levees with dynamite, Tornado outbreak, historical drought in middle of country, blizzard yesterday in the Dakotas, Royal wedding, Middle East turmoil,Kadafi son killed, Bin laden killed, Earthquakes, Tsunamis, gas/oil prices outta control,


What? Did you not get the 2012 memo? lol
Speaking of Facebook and Twitter, Reports were coming in via twitter feeds from near the area where OBL was hiding that he was killed. This was at 4:30 EST. They spoke of the helicopters coming in. Fox news showed the tweets just now.
2012 memo received
Quoting beell:

25. ILwthrfan 3:04 PM GMT on May 02, 2011

AT 954 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A BREECH IN THE
FAYETTEVILLE LEVEE JUST SOUTH OF THE RAILROAD BRIDGE AT THEBES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLOODING THAT WILL LIKELY CLOSE PARTS OF
HIGHWAY 3. IT WILL ALSO AFFECT THE COMMUNITIES OF OLIVE BRANCH AND
EVENTUALLY CAIRO.

Does this make dynamiting the levee to save Cairo a moot issue?


Could very well be so, although they may have been fighting a losing battle anyways. Look at the plume of moisture surging right over the Lower Mississippi Valley. 2-4" a good bet over a widespread area and thats just for today.

These forecast crests are likely under-done.



Water flooded farmland west of Sikeston in New Madrid County Friday.
Quoting RitaEvac:
2012 memo received


forward that on to me, please.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Is it just me, or are things speeding up and outta control??

Levees breaching, flooding, blowing up levees with dynamite, Tornado outbreak, historical drought in middle of country, blizzard yesterday in the Dakotas, Royal wedding, Middle East turmoil,Kadafi son killed, Bin laden killed, Earthquakes, Tsunamis, gas/oil prices outta control,

Some of those events are only connected temporally, of course. But I can tell you what's likely behind some of the things you mentioned.
Can't remember who, but this area was discussed yesterday on the blog


The Ohio River surrounds Harrah's Metropolis Casino and Hotel on Friday in Metropolis, Ill. The Ohio River continues to cause concerns for residents of the city. The expected crest is 53 feet of the Ohio River in Paducah, Ky., located a few miles up river. The facility was shut down because of the flooding.


Link

http://www.nytimes.com/



New Listing - For SALE!!!!
Quoting emcf30:
Speaking of Facebook and Twitter, Reports were coming in via twitter feeds from near the area where OBL was hiding that he was killed. This was at 4:30 EST. They spoke of the helicopters coming in. Fox news showed the tweets just now.

Now that is wild.
Obama 1, Osama 0. Osama 2 shots on goal missed twice. Obama 1 shot game over for Osama. USA,USA,USA. I know I shouldn't gloat but it was so nice to finally have a day of good news for the Old USA.
Quoting jeffs713:

I'm trying to figure out why Sheen thinks he is all that and a bag of chips.


I dont care who he thinks he is.. all that matters is that he has millions and apparently wants to help. So regardless of who he thinks he is, if he donates money to relief efforts than all he should be getting is a thank you.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


What? Did you not get the 2012 memo? lol
Quoting Neapolitan:

Some of those events are only connected temporally. But I can tell you what's likely behind some of the things you mentioned.


Just wait till the bees go, we'll go right out the door right along with them. I wish people would wake the #*&$ up and start realizing what we as species have done to this planet. It's sad.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Just wait till the bees go, we'll go right out the door right along with them. I wish people would wake the #*&$ up and start realizing what we as species have done to this planet. It's sad.
That website is golden Nea. Here's a fact that scares me more than most of them that I did not know of to this extent anyways.

"Since the industrial revolution began two centuries ago, the oceans have absorbed an estimated 500 billion tons of carbon dioxide, leading to a 30% rise in acidity. That's the largest increase in 600,000 years."


Quoting fire635:


I dont care who he thinks he is.. all that matters is that he has millions and apparently wants to help. So regardless of who he thinks he is, if he donates money to relief efforts than all he should be getting is a thank you.

Whoa....

Sheen, not once, in his statement said he was going to help in Tuscaloosa. He only said he was going there. Also, I was not speaking specifically about this trip. I was speaking about the circus that his life has become, and how Sheen's actions and words have become more irrevrently self-important, showing Sheen to be self-centered. (I even saw a few quotes where he talks about himself in the third person)

THAT is my point. If he chooses to help the people of Alabama that have been impacted by the significant storms of late, fantastic! I hope he gains some humility from it, and that the locals get some more much-needed help.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
That website is golden Nea. Here's a fact that scares me more than most of them that I did not know of to this extent anyways.

"Since the industrial revolution began two centuries ago, the oceans have absorbed an estimated 500 billion tons of carbon dioxide, leading to a 30% rise in acidity. That's the largest increase in 600,000 years."



Eye-opening stuff, indeed. But, sadly, things that most people would rather not hear about, know about, or think about...
Quoting sunlinepr:


Link

http://www.nytimes.com/



*** New Listing! Must see! *** Enjoy the gorgeous vistas from this two-story gated compound. Sweeping views of nearby farmland, yet easy access to the lively shopping of downtown Abbottabad. Country primitive kitchen facilities. When you want to be alone enjoying a good book - library, bunker and 17-foot tall walls come standard. The number of bedrooms and bathrooms is a classified military secret, but you'll want to tell the world of your new discovery!

opps
Quoting TampaTom:


*** New Listing! Must see! *** Enjoy the gorgeous vistas from this two-story gated compound. Sweeping views of nearby farmland, yet easy access to the lively shopping of downtown Abbottabad. Country primitive kitchen facilities. Library, bunker and 17-foot tall walls for when you want to be alone enjoying a good book come standard. The number of bedrooms and bathrooms is a classified military secret, but you'll want to tell the world of your new discovery!

Your forgot to mention that the compound is just a mile from the beautiful Abbottabad Golf Club. (Seriously: look at it in Google Maps.)
Quoting Neapolitan:

Your forgot to mention that the compound is just a mile from the beautiful Abbottabad Golf Club. (Seriously: look at it in Google Maps.)

Some of the "reviews" of the golf club are priceless...
I noticed there was a convenient burial at sea.
2011 should be full of records in almost every aspect of climate and weather. Just wait until summer kicks in.

"According to Islamic teachings, the highest honor to be bestowed on the dead is giving the deceased a swift burial, preferably before sunset. "Link

While it does raise suspicions, you have a few choices:

1. Bury him in an unmarked grave (same doubts, different venue)
2. Give him to the local authorities and/or family for a proper burial (he becomes a martyr, with a "gathering point" grave site - tormenting us horribly in death)
3. Just don't announce his death, and act like nothing happened (see: Conspiracy Theory)
4. Bury him at sea. It is one step away from an unmarked grave, BUT it is more honorable than an unmarked grave. Its a decent compromise, as long as they had a cleric there to present proper prayers (and since it was an aircraft carrier, there likely was a cleric there for that purpose)

#70 good one!
#70

ROFL. Awesome.
Governor Robert Bently announced Sunday that Alabama has been declared a Category 1 Disaster Area. That puts it on the same level as Hurricane Katrina and the 9/11 Terror Attacks.

Two more North Alabama counties have been added to the list of counties that are now declared Federal Disaster Areas. They are Marion and Etowah Counties. Previously, Cullman, DeKalb, Franklin, Lawrence and Marshall Counties were declared Federal Disaster Areas.

WAAY 31 FirstNews asked a FEMA spokesman Sunday just who the agency will be helping. FEMA spokesman Don Bolger said, "The process is very simple. The first thing you need to do is contact your insurance company. FEMA is a supplement to insurance. What I mean by that is, if everything is covered by insurance, you don't need FEMA assistance. We're here in case you're uninsured or under-insured."

FEMA suggests you register a claim as soon as possible, even if your county has not been declared a Federal Disaster Area. The toll-free number is 1-800-621-FEMA. You can also file a claim online by going to www.disasterassistance.gov.


Semper Fi

Oooh,rah
Quoting fire635:


I dont care who he thinks he is.. all that matters is that he has millions and apparently wants to help. So regardless of who he thinks he is, if he donates money to relief efforts than all he should be getting is a thank you.
+100
God Bless America...I hope they tied one these around his neck before whippin his arse in the drink...
With all of this distraction with the whole bin laden thing, I think it should also be said that many of those who were directly effected by 9-11 could probably care less that he is dead. Why? because they are the few who actively went out and researched the issue themselves; and there are many things which make absolutely no sense in the official story. But here are some interesting links.

Link
Link
Link
Link
Link
Quoting Neapolitan:

Your forgot to mention that the compound is just a mile from the beautiful Abbottabad Golf Club. (Seriously: look at it in Google Maps.)


No... freaking... way....
With people coming out of the woodwork on conspiracy theories (OMG give it a rest!), I would like to help them on their quest to uncover all of the wrongs in the world.

I was the shooter on the grassy knoll.
Quoting jeffs713:
With people coming out of the woodwork on conspiracy theories (OMG give it a rest!), I would like to help them on their quest to uncover all of the wrongs in the world.

I was the shooter on the grassy knoll.


What conspiracy theory are you talking about? The links I have provided only give direct scientific observations and absolute perspectives into what happened. Unless you're saying that reality has to exactly match what the official story says, but that kind of reality would be kind of weird no? All I'm saying is that there are more important things to be worrying about right now instead of this distraction..
Quoting HurricaneDevo:
I noticed there was a convenient burial at sea.


I hope they flushed twice...
Quoting DestinJeff:


I am responsible for Daylight Savings Time.


And you are responsible for the Homer Simpson Hurricane chart. Dont forget that one okay?
Quoting alfabob:


What conspiracy theory are you talking about? The links I have provided only give direct scientific observations and absolute perspectives into what happened. Unless you're saying that reality has to exactly match what the official story says, but that kind of reality would be kind of weird no? All I'm saying is that there are more important things to be worrying about right now instead of this distraction..
Anything that implies a governmental coverup really, really smells like a "conspiracy theory". Also, I hardly call a paper that relies upon "oral history" as an infalliable truth (see your first link). I'm not saying that there aren't circumstances that don't quite add up. What I'm saying is that its been TEN YEARS, and there is very little that can be done about the whole situation at this point. The best you will get is the feeling of vindication, while the thousands of people who were directly impacted (many by losing family members) will have terrible memories dredged up from the depths of their mind.

So basically, in trade for personal vindication of a few, thousands must suffer the horrors of 9/11 again. Bravo.
I was the stuntronaut for the "moon landings"
Quoting beell:
I put the bomp
In the bomp bah bomp bah bomp but I have no recollection of putting the ram in the rama lama ding dong

I don't know quite what to make of this, but FWIW, it made me smile.
Quoting jeffs713:

I don't know quite what to make of this, but FWIW, it made me smile.


Here ya go, young fella.

Who put the bomp...
Quoting jeffs713:

I don't know quite what to make of this, but FWIW, it made me smile.
It made me want to sing, or I should say have to sing, in order to get the song out of my head. It did bring a smile:)
Quoting beell:


Here ya go, young fella.

Who put the bomp...

I knew it was a song, and even which song, just couldn't understand the context. (the fact that you were putting it out there is what made me smile)
Quoting kwgirl:
It made me want to sing, or I should say have to sing, in order to get the song out of my head. It did bring a smile:)


Same here.... a "little humor" always works for me...:)
Beell!!

I KNEW it was you!!
Quoting jeffs713:
Anything that implies a governmental coverup really, really smells like a "conspiracy theory".


Well there are many things that are conspiracies then by that definition (although many are obviously crazy, but for the others..), as long as being labeled a conspiracy theory does not prove that it is incorrect. The last link I added is about how Bush got into office, and combined with the separate under-oath confession of the programmer of the software used in the voting machines; it is really a conspiracy theory.
Quoting beell:
I put the bomp
In the bomp bah bomp bah bomp but I have no recollection of putting the ram in the rama lama ding dong

Sounds like a oldie I have heard before or the crazy weather and political events in the past few weeks have taken its toll on your brain. LOL
Quoting alfabob:
2011 should be full of records in almost every aspect of climate and weather. Just wait until summer kicks in.



I hope you're wrong but I've noticed weather anomalies this past year like never before. June last year: we had lightning strikes like crazy, more than I've seen in Michigan (in over 50 years of observing). Last winter, we had several heavy snow storms and near or surpassing record snow accumulation: with more lightning during snow storms than I can remember seeing before. Plants are displaying delayed leaf and blossoming, leaves just appearing on trees these past 2 days and some ornamental flowers like tulips just bloomed this weekend when they normally bloom before April 15th.

Nationally, these weather extremes are more relevant but this does look like a crazy year developing.
Quoting DestinJeff:
I stayed at the Abbottabad Ramada once.


Heck thats nothing, I stayed at the Holiday Inn Express and the weather was hot outside
Jeff, were not gonna get any rain look like
LITTLE ROCK — Six Boy Scouts and two adults failed to return as scheduled from a weekend camping trip in southwestern Arkansas. Searchers contacted the group and said Monday that high water had left the eight stranded but safe.

The group from Louisiana is isolated near the Albert Pike Recreation Area in the Ouachita National Forest, where flash flooding killed 20 campers last June. more..
Quoting alfabob:


Well there are many things that are conspiracies then by that definition (although many are obviously crazy, but for the others..), as long as being labeled a conspiracy theory does not prove that it is incorrect. The last link I added is about how Bush got into office, and combined with the separate under-oath confession of the programmer of the software used in the voting machines; it is really a conspiracy theory.

Being labeled a conspiracy theory does not automatically infer any kind of judgement.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Jeff, were not gonna get any rain look like

And you are surprised because... ?

I was excited to see a 40% chance of rain, but knew that the 40% would mean some clouds, maybe a few tantalizing radar returns, and possibly even a few clouds that "look" threatening. But nothing in the way of precip actually falling and being absorbed into the ground in 0.3 seconds.
Pray for a storm
Cairo is now expected to crest at 63'.
Rita~ wish it would rain for Y'all. It starts wearing on people..everything brown, the smoke, trees & plants dying.
I hope they sent him over the side tied to a pig, in the dark.
110. beell
Quoting Skyepony:
Cairo is now expected to crest at 63'.


And appearing to remain well above record stage for several days. Probably an easy decision to open the New Madrid Floodway at this point.
Quoting presslord:
Presidential statement just released from the White House:

"Sorry it took me so long to release my birth certificate...I was really busy killing Osama bin Laden..."


LOL! That was priceless...yeah, I'd think the Bin Laden thing might be more important than confirming something that not-delusional Americans already knew. I am happy somebody finally decided to make it a priority and cut the head off the monster. That's where our efforts should have been since 9/11 NOT in Iraq. I hope people really realize that now.
One million seven hundred and seventy one thousand cubic feet per second. Almost half of the average flow of the Amazon river @ 4.2 Million.

Link




Quoting Skyepony:
Cairo is now expected to crest at 63'.
I wondered if NWS was pulling in extra help with the tornado surveys. Looks like they did..

The task is so big, he said, that he is calling fellow meteorologists out of retirement to help, hoping their 30 or 40 years of experience will provide an extra level of expertise.
Quoting beell:


And appearing to remain well above record stage for several days. Probably an easy decision to open the New Madrid Floodway at this point.


I keep seeing the same story.. they were suppose to have discussed it with the public this morning. Don't know what came of that.
Quoting hydrus:
God Bless America...I hope they tied one these around his neck before whippin his arse in the drink...


"At least 919,967 people have
been killed in Afghanistan and Iraq
since the U.S. and coalition attacks, based on lowest credible estimates."

Really blessed!
NOTE: Gauge reading is unreliable because gauge is under water.

****************************UNITED STATES NAVY SEAL TEAM SIX*****************************
There is all sort of flood records being broke, even well off the MS River. Up in ND..got a friend thought she'd never see it get anything like '09 again. They came pretty close yesterday. North of them is setting records.
119. beell
Quoting Skyepony:


I keep seeing the same story.. they were suppose to have discussed it with the public this morning. Don't know what came of that.


Saw one piece earlier that stated it would take about 20 hrs to pump explosives in the pipe(s) under the levee opposite Cairo. Started at 3:30PM CDT yesterday. With a meeting/decision to be made approx. 3 hrs after completion. If they are on the timeline and the source is correct, we should be hearing something soon.

we should be hearing something soon.
I'll pass on the too-easy joke...
Updated tornado stats just out. The number keeps going up. Yes, they are still preliminary estimates, but they are increasingly based on actual ground-based damage surveys in conjunction with observations of radar and satellite imagery:

--NOAA's preliminary estimate is that there were 362 tornadoes during the entire outbreak from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 25 to 8:00 a.m. April 28, 2011.

--During the 24-hour period from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 27 to 8:00 a.m. EDT April 28, The National Weather Service (NWS) estimates there were a total of 312 tornadoes.

--Expert analysis by NOAA Research and the National Weather Service of the fatality information indicates that at least 350 people were killed during the entire outbreak from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 25 to 8:00 a.m. April 28.

--There were 340 fatalities during the 24-hour-period from 8:00 a.m. April 27 to 8:00 a.m. April 28.

--The April 26-28 period had the most people killed by tornadoes in a two-day period since April 5-6, 1936, when 454 people were killed, mostly in Tupelo, Mississippi, and Gainesville, Georgia.

--April 27, 2011, is the deadliest single day for tornadoes since the March 18, 1925, tornado outbreak that had 747 fatalities across 7 states (including the Tri-State Tornado).

--The Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado during the April 2011 event caused at least 65 fatalities. This tornado had a maximum width of 1.5 miles and a track 80 miles long. These are the most fatalities from a single tornado in the United States since May 25, 1955, when 80 people were killed in a tornado in southern Kansas with 75 of those deaths in Udall, Kansas. (The deadliest single tornado on record in the United States was the Tri-State tornado [Mo., Ill., Ind.] on March 18, 1925, when 695 died.)

--Ongoing (preliminary) List of Tornadoes by EF Rating (EF3 to EF5):

EF5: 2
EF4: 11
EF3: 21

--NWS's preliminary estimate is that there have been more than 600 tornadoes thus far during the month of April 2011.

-The previous record number of tornadoes during the month of April was 267 tornadoes set in April 1974.
-The previous record number of tornadoes during any month was 542 tornadoes set in May 2003.
-The average number of tornadoes for the month of April during the past decade is 161.
-The overall monthly average number of tornadoes for the past decade is 106.

- - - - - - - - - -

If the estimated counts come even close to being right, last week's outbreak will have shattered the records for most tornadoes in a single outbreak (not outbreak sequence), most tornadoes in a single 24-hour period, and most tornadoes in a one-week period. Pretty incredible...
121. beell
Announcement on Birds Point coming at 5 p.m.
Southeast Missourian

Southeast Missourian-Flood of 2011 Webpage


The breach would flood about 200 acres of prime farm land in Mississippi County, Mo., in order to relieve pressure on other points of the river flood-control system, including at Cairo, Ill.

Quite the inaccuracy there from what I have read. The New Madrid Floodway encompasses close to 130,000 acres.

Funny thing. The floodway is open at its southern end near New Madrid. High water in the Mississippi causes backwater flooding. Some degree of flooding occurs almost every year. At very high water levels almost 2/3rds of the floodway go underwater.
Bird's Point - New Madrid Floodway
Quoting Skyepony:
I wondered if NWS was pulling in extra help with the tornado surveys. Looks like they did..

The task is so big, he said, that he is calling fellow meteorologists out of retirement to help, hoping their 30 or 40 years of experience will provide an extra level of expertise.


I heard that Bill Paxton and Helen Hunt will be joining in too. ........ Sorry, Skye. I couldn't resist.

I know they have a lot of ground to cover and a lot of evidence to sift through. I believe the more eyes they have the better the assessment they can make of it all.
Quoting BadHurricane:


"At least 919,967 people have
been killed in Afghanistan and Iraq
since the U.S. and coalition attacks, based on lowest credible estimates."

Really blessed!


I take it you're placing the responsibility of all 919,967 Murder/Death/Kill on just the US & coalition forces?
Birds Point New Madrid Floodway Joint Information Center
Maj. Gen Michael J. Walsh, President of the Mississippi River Commission, will announce his decision regarding operation of the Floodway at a press conference at 5 p.m. today (May 2) at the Checkpoint on the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway levee road. A represent from COL Reichling’s staff will also be present to answer questions.
32 minutes ago

bad....where you from? i wanna know what area not to allow my children near as for fear theyll learn from those with the same mentality...

this flooding is crazy...really hoping this setup breaks down...dont know how many more 2-4 day rainy periods every week the areas can handle ....and severe weather needs to take a break as well....

hows everyone doing?
126. IKE
From CNN....
Gas could top $4 nationwide this week
................................................. ................................................

It's $3.95.9 here at my location.....per gallon.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Updated tornado stats just out. The number keeps going up.


I have been through Hurricane Alicia, Rita and Ike. I have also endured TS Allison. I have even had some near misses with tornados and water spouts.
We knew Allison was coming and there was no panic. We did not expect it to stall and then reverse course on us as it did. Still there was no panic, just a lot of grief later.
The hurricanes were a bit different. No one really panicked over Alicia. Trees and telephone poles were her most numerous victims.
Hurricane Rita was another story. We had just witnessed what Hurricane Katrina had done further up the coast with all of its death and destruction. Panic was a given for Rita. I am sure we all remember the logistical nightmare that Rita brought us in this area. 20 hour traffic jams. No gas, food, water or shelter for those that were trying to escape from Rita's path.
Hurricane Ike was a monster of a storm. Huge, powerful and ever closing in on us. The destruction along the coast rivaled Carla and Katrina. The damage as far inland as the damage reached was amazing. There was strong wind damage as far north as Conroe. Conroe is 40 miles north of Houston.
Now, I think about what these people that just went through these devastating tornadoes must have felt. Very little to no warning and little, but powerful, monsters all around them. No place to hide. No time to run. I can not imagine what they have just endured.

My heart goes out to them all. May they never have to endure again such destruction and pain. Once is enough, in any one lifetime. Give them strength, a shoulder to cry on, a place to rest their head and a helping hand. They are going need all of these and more.
The two tone baker be up over in a here!!!!
During the 24-hour period from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 27 to 8:00 a.m. EDT April 28, The National Weather Service (NWS) estimates there were a total of 312 tornadoes.

The largest previous number of tornadoes on record in one event occurred from April 3-4, 1974, with 148 tornadoes

Totally AMAZING
Quite a few "over toppings" and iminent levee breaches today :(

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1123 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY

* AT 1111 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LEVEE COMMISSIONERS
REPORTED OVERTOPPING OF THE CROSS LEVEE IN SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE
COUNTY. THE LEVEE HAS NOT YET BREACHED...BUT IS OVERTOPPING IN
MULTIPLE LOCATIONS IN COMBINATION WITH VERY HIGH RIVER LEVELS.
ILLINOIS ROUTE 33 FROM HEATHSVILLE TO WESTPORT...AND ALL ROUTES EAST
OF 33...ARE CLOSED TO ALL TRAFFIC. SAND BARRENS ROAD WEST OF ST
FRANCISVILLE IS ALSO CLOSED.

------------------------------------------------- -----


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
330 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SMITHLAND RIVER FRONT LEVEE IN
SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WEST KENTUCKY.

* UNTIL 315 AM CDT TUESDAY

* AT 321 PM CDT...THE IMMINENT FAILURE OF THE SMITHLAND RIVERFRONT
LEVEE...LOCATED AT THE INTERSECTION OF COURT STREET AND RIVERFRONT
DRIVE...WAS REPORTED BY LIVINGSTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
WATER WAS LEAKING FROM THE LEVEE AND A BREACH MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
SEVERAL HOURS. EVACUATIONS ARE OCCURRING NOW.

PERSONS IN SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY THAT COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
LEVEE FAILURE SHOULD SEEK HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.

------------------------------------------------- ---


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
234 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH IS EXTENDING A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A BREACH OF THE FAYVILLE LEVEE IN...
ALEXANDER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT WEDNESDAY

* AT 228 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUED TO REPORT THAT THE
A NEARLY 100 FOOT SECTION OF THE FAYVILLE LEVEE...JUST SOUTH OF THE
RAILROAD BRIDGE AT THEBES...CONTINUES TO OVERTOP. THIS WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING THAT WILL LIKELY CLOSE PARTS OF HIGHWAY 3. IT
WILL ALSO AFFECT THE COMMUNITIES OF OLIVE BRANCH AND EVENTUALLY
CAIRO.

-----------------------------------------------

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR RAPID RIVER RISES ON THE SAINT FRANCIS
RIVER REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR EASTERN
BUTLER...SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE AND SOUTHWESTERN STODDARD COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 109 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER OFFICIALS ARE
REPORTING THAT WATER RELEASES ARE UNCONTROLLED...AS WATER CONTINUES
TO OVERTOP THE SPILLWAY AT LAKE WAPPAPELLO.

THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL ONLY WORSEN CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE SAINT
FRANCIS RIVER.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HIGHWAY T DOWNSTREAM OF THE DAM HAS WASHED
OUT...AND IS IMPASSABLE.

THE MISSOURI DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS EXPRESSED SERIOUS
CONCERN THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST RECORD STAGE OF 28 FEET NEAR FISK
WILL PLACE PART OF HIGHWAY 60 DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE WAPPAPELLO DAM
AT RISK. IF YOU PLAN TRAVEL IN OR NEAR THIS AREA...BE SURE HAVE
ALTERNATE ROUTES IN MIND TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

FLOOD WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING DOWN THE SAINT FRANCIS
RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES FROM LAKE WAPPAPELLO DOWNSTREAM...POSSIBLY
TO THE MISSOURI STATE LINE. [b]WATER LEVELS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ON THE
SAINT FRANCIS RIVER HAVE NOT BEEN EXPERIENCED IN THIS AREA SINCE
1945.[\b]

------------------------------------------------- ----

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
OFFICE OF THE PRAIRIE COUNTY JUDGE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
833 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE OFFICE
OF THE PRAIRIE COUNTY JUDGE.

PRAIRIE COUNTY AUTHORITIES HAVE ISSUED AN EVACUATION NOTICE FOR
RESIDENTS IN THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS EAST OF THE WHITE RIVER AT DES
ARC AND BISCOE. THE ROADS IN THE AREA WILL SOON BE IMPASSABLE DUE
TO FLOODING.
Quoting IKE:
From CNN....
Gas could top $4 nationwide this week
................................................. ................................................

It's $3.95.9 here at my location.....per gallon.



Gas is $10.33 per gallon in Northern Ireland.
Quoting RufusBaker:
The two tone baker be up over in a here!!!!
rufus stop being a dufus
Average price per gallon in Natrona County, Wy. $3.40

Lowest I have found in Country
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I heard that Bill Paxton and Helen Hunt will be joining in too. ........ Sorry, Skye. I couldn't resist.

I know they have a lot of ground to cover and a lot of evidence to sift through. I believe the more eyes they have the better the assessment they can make of it all.


Yeah they've got to getting creative to be getting these confirmed so quick.

The '74 outbreak was studied for like 15 years after. We should see some papers & thesis out of this.
How ENSO Impacts the Northern Hemisphere Pattern



Good article from 28storms for those who are interested Link
Picture of President Obama and his inner circle watching the operation live to kill Bin Laden.

I can imagine the reaction as they went into Bin Laden's bedroom and saw his face for the first time, then as he was shot dead :)




Maybe the worst spot!!

This photo shows natural overtopping at the frontline levee on the Mississippi River on the Birds Point New Madrid Floodway at 2pm
Won't be long before they fail. The water will scour the sides and create a break in the levee if it flows over the top like that. If this were a prolonged event then it would boil up underneath due to hydraulic pressure.

Quoting emcf30:

This photo shows natural overtopping at the frontline levee on the Mississippi River on the Birds Point New Madrid Floodway at 2pm




This gotta stop soon!
Quoting snotly:
Won't be long before they fail. The water will scour the sides and create a break in the levee if it flows over the top like that. If this were a prolonged event then it would boil up underneath due to hydraulic pressure.



Yeah, we should find out in a few minutes if they are going activate the spillway buy blowing the levee. Press conference on the way now
They are going to blow it
Birds Point New Madrid Floodway Joint Information Center
‎"We expect to execute the project between 9:00 p.m and midnight tonight"
Quoting emcf30:


Yeah, we should find out in a few minutes if they are going activate the spillway buy blowing the levee. Press conference on the way now



Field triage ....better to flood a few then to have an epidemic flood
Quoting TampaSpin:



Field triage ....better to flood a few then to have an epidemic flood


Gotta do what you gotta do. I am on their face book page
some people are confused why are they doing it at night. The only thing I can tell they need to get some additional evacuations completed. There is also a lot of cattle in the area. That's a logistical nightmare to move that much livestock
River stages
Location Current Forecast
Cape Girardeau
Mississippi River 46.18 ft.
Major flooding 46.30 ft.
Tue 7am
Chester
Mississippi River 39.70 ft.
Major flooding 39.80 ft.
Mon 7pm
Thebes
Mississippi River 44.90 ft.
Major flooding 45.70 ft.
Tue 7pm
New Madrid
Mississippi River 46.27 ft.
Major flooding 48.20 ft.
Wed 1pm
Caruthersville
Mississippi River 45.31 ft.
Major flooding 46.50 ft.
Wed 1pm
We were discussing the impact of Facebook and Twitter earlier and how fast info is made pubic thru social media. It has been 30 minutes since the Army Corp of Engineers told of the plans to blow the levee. TWC and the local news outlets in the area have not mentioned it. Just saw a report on TWC from Cario,IL with Mike Seidel just state still no word on the operation.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN LEWIS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 530 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAWRENCEBURG...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Gas is $10.33 per gallon in Northern Ireland.
It is US$7.38 in the Cayman Islands and that is for regular. :(
Supply and demand. Apparently folks ain't been eatin' enough beans&cabbage.
The lack of energy policy and the anti drilling policy have led to this. There is no other conclusion that can be reached. Now we get to deal with it. It has little to do with supply and demand.
MISSISSIPPI RIVER COMMISSION
VICKSBURG, MISSISSIPPI
May 2, 2011
Everyone I have talked with -- from boat operators, to labors, scientist and engineers, and truck drivers have all said the same thing – “I never thought I would see the day that the river would reach these levels”.
We have exceeded the record stage already at Cairo. We are on a course to break records at many points as the crest moves through the system. Sometimes people celebrate with “records” – but not this time. Making this decision is not easy or hard – it’s simply grave – because the decision leads to loss of property and livelihood –either in a floodway -- or in an area that was not designed to flood. The state of Missouri has done a superb job of helping people escape the ravages of water in the floodway. But other places – not designed to flood have had no warning if their areas succumb to the pressures of this historic chocolate tide.
I spent last night on the river … lashed to an anchor barge in the current near the top of the floodway. The rains continued to pound the deck of the Motor Vessel. The cold winds moved us around – and the current and water levels kept increasing as the rain storms continue to grow over the Ar/Miss/Ohio/TN Watershed.
So, with the tool that has withstood many tests: the test of operation in 1937; decades of challenges that resulted in the 1986 Operation Plan; reviews and numerous unsuccessful court challenges – I have to use this tool. I have to activate this floodway to help capture a significant percentage of the flow.
I don’t have to like it but we must use everything we have in our possession, in the system to prevent a more catastrophic event. So, today, I give the order to operate the Floodway
Quoting twincomanche:
The lack of energy policy and the anti drilling policy have led to this. There is no other conclusion that can be reached. Now we get to deal with it. It has little to do with supply and demand.

The lack of real fuel standards, the inability of many in government to let go of the Big Oil cash cow enriching them and move quickly toward alternatives, and the unwillingness of many Americans to quit living in the fantasyland of cheap and endless oil are all a large part of the problem.

One thing that isn't part of the problem is ExxonMobil's not being allowed to defile a pristine wilderness (ANWR) by drilling for a few weeks or months of crude.

USA Today quotes Dr. Masters in the first paragraph. Nice. ;-)
Evening everybody.... what a crazy day! But at least I made it home...

I see they're going to blow the levee.... After seeing the continued rain over the area, I guess one couldn't expect anything different.

I'm wondering if there's any benefit for the farmland, i.e. from having silt added... [trying to find a good side].
Never mind, twincomanchee. Ifn I hafta explain a joke...
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Greetings from Ringgold GA and Apison TN. The damage here is tremendous as we have confirmed an EF4 tornado in this area.

My family and I are safe and uninjured however there were several friends and families just less than 5 to 7 miles away who lost their homes and businesses.

Downtown Ringgold and the schools were obliterated.

I appreciate any prayers for these areas.

Hey, glad to see you well and in the blog! That Ringgold / Apison tornado was something else... I was reading the report. Your home is OK, I trust!
Quoting Patrap:
"If it keeps on raining, Levee's gonna break"..
gotta love that led zep
First wave of the season candidate?



is this the first tropical wave of the season?
Quoting HurricaneDevo:
I noticed there was a convenient burial at sea.
Exactly. Kinda hard to set up a venerable shrine to this ... man ... if you can't figure out where the body is.... sorry, no holy relics like Bin Laden's knuckle bones.... no tours, etc....

Quoting emcf30:
Average price per gallon in Natrona County, Wy. $3.40

Lowest I have found in Country
It's because they're pumping it right out of the ground over in the NE corner of the county, plus refining it right there....

Re. #162. That's looking pretty good for 1st week of May....

You know, the various disasters and excitements are coming so fast it's almost making my head spin....
For those who want to know...or may already know...

wayfaringstranger "Greetings from Ringgold GA and Apison TN. The damage here is tremendous as we have confirmed an EF4 tornado in this area.
My family and I are safe and uninjured however there were several friends and families just less than 5 to 7 miles away who lost their homes and businesses.
Downtown Ringgold and the schools were obliterated.
"

From one of your neighbors posting in another forum:
I live just south of Ringgold, GA, by about ten minutes. ...the town got destroyed.
There are eight confirmed deaths from the town that I'm aware of. The cashier for the cafeteria at the elementary school where I work was trapped in her destroyed house. Her husband died. She was taken to the hospital. Her left foot was turned completely around and she has fiberglass insulation in her eyes and insulation and dry wall in her back. The hospital fixed her foot because she was starting to lose circulation there, but didn't fix her eyes or back yet because there were others who needed help worse. Thankfully her circulation has been restored.
Two teachers are now homeless and vehicle-less, though they are all well. Three other teachers are all okay, but their parents/brothers/sisters/etc. are homeless from the tornado.
The middle school and high school were destroyed and can't be used for at least six months for repairs. Entire buildings are gone.
It wouldn't have taken much for the tornado to have turned my way. I live in a double-wide trailer. Looking at these houses and businesses that were destroyed, my house would have been totally gone, and maybe me with it.
[Frown]
Lots of emotions today at work. Really tough day.
Yesterday [ie the day of the tornado] we had an hour and a half tornado "drill" at school because tornadoes were sighted in the region. Imagine, if you will, 19 pre-k kids in a bathroom, and put all of the pre-k to second graders in bathrooms (thankfully not 19 in all of them), with the 3-5 graders all squatting in the hall.
It was pretty intense. Though it was really heart-warming to hear sweet little pre-k and kindergarten giggles coming out of the bathrooms as their teachers entertained them during the "drill."
Quoting cyclonekid:
For those who want to know...or may already know...


Looks like I'm just over the CSU prediction with:
TS: 18
HR: 10
MH: 6
Next forecast updates are at the beginning of June, right?
Quoting alfabob:

Looks like I'm just over the CSU prediction with:
TS: 18
HR: 10
MH: 6
Quoting alfabob:

Looks like I'm just over the CSU prediction with:
TS: 18
HR: 10
MH: 6
. I agree.
"St. Genevieve, hold back the water..."

from "Tear Stained Eye" by Son Volt which is about the town of St. Genevieve, Missouri which was wiped out by the Miss. R flooding in 1793 and then relocated further from it. The town is still one of the the oldest towns west of the Mississippi, surviving many more floods, and hopefully this one too. Listening to this song repeatedly today is like reciting a prayer for me.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGMfEPUnTpI

Quoting cyclonekid:
For those who want to know...or may already know...



Oh good they just dropped the "r" and the "n" from Katrina and named it Katia. Too soon with these high SSTs...
Original version

Led Zeppelin - When The Levee Breaks

Quoting jdjnola:


Oh good they just dropped the "r" and the "n" from Katrina and named it Katia. Too soon with these high SSTs...

What's even funnier is that "Rina" is merely an alternate or shortening of "Katrina".
Quoting Neapolitan:

The lack of real fuel standards, the inability of many in government to let go of the Big Oil cash cow enriching them and move quickly toward alternatives, and the unwillingness of many Americans to quit living in the fantasyland of cheap and endless oil are all a large part of the problem.

One thing that isn't part of the problem is ExxonMobil's not being allowed to defile a pristine wilderness (ANWR) by drilling for a few weeks or months of crude.

USA Today quotes Dr. Masters in the first paragraph. Nice. ;-)


Yep, your attitude will go a long way towards helping folks out.
Quoting twincomanche:


Yep, your attitude will go a long way towards helping folks out.
As will yours! LOL
The breaching of the levee should commence soon. Will be interesting.

Birds Point New Madrid Floodway Joint Information Center
The plan to operate the floodway will begin in less than an hour.
Birds Point New Madrid Floodway Joint Information Center
The U.S. Coast Guard is attempting to video the breaching of the levee as part of operating the Birds Point New Madrid floodway
45 minutes ago

Quoting BahaHurican:
Re. #162. That's looking pretty good for 1st week of May....

You know, the various disasters and excitements are coming so fast it's almost making my head spin....


Usually off season is dull but unfortunately not this year.
Live feed of the breaching Link
Zep's Inspiration for "When the Levee Breaks"

Memphis Minnie and Joe Mccoys original.

I noticed there was a convenient burial at sea.

 Don't worry. Leviathan shall gorge upon his flesh!!!
Quoting TomTaylor:
As will yours! LOL


I have solutions does BO and company?
Quoting twincomanche:


Yep, your attitude will go a long way towards helping folks out.

Thanks. I'm glad you recognize that it's not always about us in the right here, right now; we have to work toward the future today.
G' night. Beam me up Scotty, there's no intelligent life down here.
neap I was reading post 49 and went to your link are you saying all the events on that link are caused by global warming?
Quoting Patrap:
Zep's Inspiration for "When the Levee Breaks"

Memphis Minnie and Joe Mccoys original.

interesting, thanks for that

One thing about zep, a lot of people accuse them for taking music from others. This may be true for quite a few songs, but one thing is for certain, they new how to take what wasn't so hot and craft it into a masterpiece.
Quoting twincomanche:


Yep, your attitude will go a long way towards helping folks out.
Quoting twincomanche:


I have solutions does BO and company?

Quoting twincomanche:
G' night. Beam me up Scotty, there's no intelligent life down here.

ignorance is bliss.

If BO = Barack Obama, then yes, he has plenty of solutions. you don't support them, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have solutions.
Controversy over Birds Point Levee break

It's a matter of flooding homes or polluting farmland:

"Cairo, whose population exceeded 15,000 in Mark Twain's day, is a ghost of what it was as a booming riverboat-era port town. The city currently has approximately 2,800 residents, most of whom have already evacuated, according to Mayor Judson Childs.

Missouri Farmers Outraged

Missouri farmers in the water's path are outraged by the decision. Bill Feezor, who farms 2,500 acres of corn, wheat and soybeans near Birds Point, said he fears the flooding.

'It will ruin my farm,' he said. 'This is my whole life.'

Farmers such as Feezor worry about a toxic stew of diesel fuel, propane, fertilizer and pesticides that, they believe, will cover their land once river water rushes in."

Quoting eddy12:
neap I was reading post 49 and went to your link are you saying all the events on that link are caused by global warming?

Oh, absolutely not; it would take a near complete dismissal of what is known about climate science to make such a claim. But, as has been predicted for years and stated numerous times, a warming planet will likely set the stage for extreme weather events to occur with increasing severity and frequency; that page appears to have a large--though far from complete--list of just such events.
Quoting Neapolitan:

The lack of real fuel standards, the inability of many in government to let go of the Big Oil cash cow enriching them and move quickly toward alternatives, and the unwillingness of many Americans to quit living in the fantasyland of cheap and endless oil are all a large part of the problem.

One thing that isn't part of the problem is ExxonMobil's not being allowed to defile a pristine wilderness (ANWR) by drilling for a few weeks or months of crude.

USA Today quotes Dr. Masters in the first paragraph. Nice. ;-)


You may consider the economics of alternative forms of energy are quite uneconomic. Else someone would have done it a while ago, no?

I mean, there HAS to be a reason for the heavy ethanol subsidies, right???
Quoting CanesfanatUT:


You may consider the economics of alternative forms of energy are quite uneconomic. Else someone would have done it a while ago, no?

It's only "uneconomic" if one doesn't consider the future to have any value, or if one believes that oil will last forever, or if one dismisses the science that says just how bad burning fossil fuels is for the environment, or if one doesn't plan on having kids. It's kinda like saying a pack of Nicorette gum costs more than a pack of Marlboros, so it's not "economic" to quit smoking.

Quoting CanesfanatUT:
I mean, there HAS to be a reason for the heavy ethanol subsidies, right???

Oh, yes. Absolutely. The ethanol industry makes huge contributions to certain politicians; those politicians out of gratitude and a sense of payback continue to extend the subsidies. It's quite a nice system...
LinkTimeBlurb

"Nobody likes to flood farmland on purpose, but this particular farmland is in a floodway."

Haven't been on this place in a while........
Well, all I have to say is that oil is no longer a cheap form of energy. Isn't it time to move on?

Good night to all.
195. xcool


getting about that time start looking by Africa!
;)))
The first negative daily SOI value in more than a year has finally been registered. SOI Dailies
198. flsky
1st day in Birmingham, AL. Already hearing some heart-wrenching stories. I you're able, please donate what you can to these poor folks' recovery.
neap ok thank you for clearing that up because that is what it seemed to be inferring and reading some of the articles from which you took your headlines they seem to be really grasping at straws to make their point
The tropical pressure pattern has now flipped. Look at the equatorial Pacific.

Quoting eddy12:
neap ok thank you for clearing that up because that is what it seemed to be inferring and reading some of the articles from which you took your headlines they seem to be really grasping at straws to make their point

So far as I know, none of the stories were trying to make a point, so I'm not sure what straw-grasping you encountered; do you have any specific items in mind?
203. xcool


wind shear,. red meaing- high wind shear -blue meaing lower wind shear...
Quoting Neapolitan:

Oh, absolutely not; it would take a near complete dismissal of what is known about climate science to make such a claim. But, as has been predicted for years and stated numerous times, a warming planet will likely set the stage for extreme weather events to occur with increasing severity and frequency; that page appears to have a large--though far from complete--list of just such events.
Like these. Clearly the result of CO2 concentrations...

205. xcool


Sea level pressure anomalies
Sunlinepr and Xcool...some pretty spectacular visuals...they just get better and better :)
neap the spiders in minnesota it says theoretically maybe by 2080. The penguins article climate change is thrown in but the article more blames overfishing just a couple of examples but i could go on.
208. xcool
:)
Hawaii??

210. beell
Quoting atmoaggie:
Like these. Clearly the result of CO2 concentrations...



It's quite obvious.
;-]
Quoting atmoaggie:
Like these. Clearly the result of CO2 concentrations...



Overall tornado activity from F3-F5 has been trending downwards over the years because strong development depends on the availability of cold air. Except cold air still exists and when it is forced southward towards CONUS, and you have large amounts of moisture coming from the ever increasing SST you get explosive development. Here are the ingredients..polar vortex dipped down from 25th - 27th, stream of black stuff coming from the West. Both possibly linked to climate change via increasing ocean temperatures.



Quoting Levi32:
The tropical pressure pattern has now flipped. Look at the equatorial Pacific.

Quoting Levi32:
The first negative daily SOI value in more than a year has finally been registered. SOI Dailies
interesting...

Thanks levi
what does levi mean that the tropical pressure pattern has now flipped?
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
what does levi mean that the tropical pressure pattern has now flipped?


The equatorial Pacific has negative pressure anomalies instead of positive ones. This is an indication that the atmosphere is finally entering the neutral phase of the ENSO.

Another interesting thing is that this will now unleash the MJO to go nuts, after being penned up for so long. It will now be able to make strong runs across the Pacific, continuing across the entire tropical belt, instead of being stuck over the maritime continent and tropical Atlantic. This may allow the MJO to be a good predictive tool this hurricane season.

The first MJO burst in the Pacific is coming over the next couple weeks, and it will be lining up to make the last 10 days of May our first chance for possible early-season mischief.

oh ok,thanks levi:)
Quoting alfabob:


Overall tornado activity from F3-F5 has been trending downwards over the years because strong development depends on the availability of cold air. Except cold air still exists and when it is forced southward towards CONUS, and you have large amounts of moisture coming from the ever increasing SST you get explosive development. Here are the ingredients..polar vortex dipped down from 25th - 27th, stream of black stuff coming from the West. Both possibly linked to climate change via increasing ocean temperatures.



Yep. AGW is supposed to also make the Arctic colder.

I know some of you heard that the Arctic would be warming the most and the earliest, but this was apparently incorrect as we had some tornadoes within the last week.
here what Wikipedia says waiting for Confirm from NWS

Tuscaloosa/Birmingham tornado


The National Weather Service has determined the path length of this violent tornado to be 80.3 miles with a maximum damage path width of 1.5 miles; it has been preliminary classified as an EF-5 tornado with peak winds up to 205 mph. Initial reports from Tuscaloosa and Birmingham indicated at least 65 people were killed, with over 1000 injured in the Tuscaloosa area alone.[73] This would make it the deadliest tornado in the United States since 1955, when a tornado killed 80 people in the town of Udall, Kansas[74][75] This makes it the deadliest single tornado ever to strike the state of Alabama.[76] The number of fatalities may increase as recovery efforts and damage surveys continue. President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama visited Tuscaloosa on April 29, taking a ground tour of some of the affected areas. Obama was quoted as saying that he has "never seen devastation like this." He stated further that he had already declared a federal state of emergency in Alabama.[77]
Quoting CanesfanatUT:


You may consider the economics of alternative forms of energy are quite uneconomic. Else someone would have done it a while ago, no?

I mean, there HAS to be a reason for the heavy ethanol subsidies, right???


The reason is the corn lobby. Only a @#$%$! idiot would use corn as stock for ethanol fuel. Not only is it a key food crop and taxing on soil, but it has an absolutely terrible yield (just barely above break even).

Subsidies are not supposed to be life support for stupid ideas or provide corporate welfare. If the system was working as intended, corn based ethanol would have been killed before it got started and oil subsidies would have ceased decades ago.

Quoting eddy12:
neap the spiders in minnesota it says theoretically maybe by 2080. The penguins article climate change is thrown in but the article more blames overfishing just a couple of examples but i could go on.

The spider article gives a range of years up to 2080; the maps show the migration during intermediate years (2020 and 2050). And, in fact, that migration is taking place right now.

I didn't at all get the idea that the penguin article was blaming overfishing. In fact, the only reason fishing is mentioned is that warming-induced migrations of the sardines on which the penguins feed is forcing them closer to commercial fishing areas.

In short, neither of these seem a reach; they are both evidence of changes taking place because of warming.

220. skook
Tornado causes damage, injuries
By Susie Nordqvist and Hayden Donnell

A roof has collapsed at a mall in the Auckland suburb of Albany and the building is being evacuated, reports say. Police have confirmed injuries in the area.

The Fire Service has dispatched multiple appliances to the area and is receiving 111 calls from residents...
Link
Quoting Tazmanian:
here what Wikipedia says waiting for Confirm from NWS

Tuscaloosa/Birmingham tornado


The National Weather Service has determined the path length of this violent tornado to be 80.3 miles with a maximum damage path width of 1.5 miles; it has been preliminary classified as an EF-5 tornado with peak winds up to 205 mph. Initial reports from Tuscaloosa and Birmingham indicated at least 65 people were killed, with over 1000 injured in the Tuscaloosa area alone.[73] This would make it the deadliest tornado in the United States since 1955, when a tornado killed 80 people in the town of Udall, Kansas[74][75] This makes it the deadliest single tornado ever to strike the state of Alabama.[76] The number of fatalities may increase as recovery efforts and damage surveys continue. President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama visited Tuscaloosa on April 29, taking a ground tour of some of the affected areas. Obama was quoted as saying that he has "never seen devastation like this." He stated further that he had already declared a federal state of emergency in Alabama.[77]

That's someone playing around or jumping the gun; as of 8:55 EDT this evening, the Birmingham NWS says this:

TORNADO 9...TUSCALOOSA/BIRMINGHAM (GREENE/TUSCALOOSA/JEFFERSON
COUNTIES)

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: APRIL 27, 2011
EVENT TYPE: EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UP TO 190
INJURIES/FATALITIES: OVER 1000 INJURIES/AT LEAST 65 FATALITIES.
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 33.0297/-87.935 AT 443 PM
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 33.6311/-86.7436 AT 614 PM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): APPROXIMATELY 80.3 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: 1.5 MILES CROSSING I-65.
NOTE: MORE DETAILS ON THIS SURVEY TO COME
Quoting Tazmanian:
here what Wikipedia says waiting for Confirm from NWS

Tuscaloosa/Birmingham tornado


The National Weather Service has determined the path length of this violent tornado to be 80.3 miles with a maximum damage path width of 1.5 miles; it has been preliminary classified as an EF-5 tornado with peak winds up to 205 mph. Initial reports from Tuscaloosa and Birmingham indicated at least 65 people were killed, with over 1000 injured in the Tuscaloosa area alone.[73] This would make it the deadliest tornado in the United States since 1955, when a tornado killed 80 people in the town of Udall, Kansas[74][75] This makes it the deadliest single tornado ever to strike the state of Alabama.[76] The number of fatalities may increase as recovery efforts and damage surveys continue. President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama visited Tuscaloosa on April 29, taking a ground tour of some of the affected areas. Obama was quoted as saying that he has "never seen devastation like this." He stated further that he had already declared a federal state of emergency in Alabama.[77]
So that would be the 3rd one?
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's someone playing around or jumping the gun; as of 8:55 EDT this evening, the Birmingham says this:

TORNADO 9...TUSCALOOSA/BIRMINGHAM (GREENE/TUSCALOOSA/JEFFERSON
COUNTIES)

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: APRIL 27, 2011
EVENT TYPE: EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UP TO 190
INJURIES/FATALITIES: OVER 1000 INJURIES/AT LEAST 65 FATALITIES.
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 33.0297/-87.935 AT 443 PM
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 33.6311/-86.7436 AT 614 PM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): APPROXIMATELY 80.3 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: 1.5 MILES CROSSING I-65.
NOTE: MORE DETAILS ON THIS SURVEY TO COME



no lol they have not updated the site yet
Quoting TomTaylor:
So that would be the 3rd one?



yes but waiting for confrom from NWS be for we jump the gun
Severe Weather Alerts

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Hickman and Williamson County in TN until 8:00pm CDT. #tnwx about 3 hours ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Choctaw County in MS until 8:00pm CDT. #mswx about 3 hours ago
Tornado Warning for Maury County in TN until 6:45pm CDT. #tnwx about 4 hours ago
Tornado Warning for Maury County in TN until 6:30pm CDT. #tnwx about 4 hours ago
Tornado Warning for Maury and Williamson County in TN until 6:15pm CDT. #tnwx about 4 hours ago
Tornado Warning for Lawrence, Lewis, and Maury County in TN until 6:00pm CDT. #tnwx about 5 hours ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Adair, Barren, Cumberland, Metcalfe and Monroe County in KY until 5:45pm CDT. #kywx about 5 hours ago
Tornado Warning for Lawrence and Wayne County in TN until 5:30pm CDT. #tnwx about 5 hours ago
Quoting Tazmanian:



no lol they have not updated the site yet

Wiki has been adjusted back to show EF4. If people keep messing around, we'll have to lock the page.

It may wind up being upgraded to EF5--but it's not there, not yet.
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's someone playing around or jumping the gun; as of 8:55 EDT this evening, the Birmingham says this:

TORNADO 9...TUSCALOOSA/BIRMINGHAM (GREENE/TUSCALOOSA/JEFFERSON
COUNTIES)

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: APRIL 27, 2011
EVENT TYPE: EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UP TO 190
INJURIES/FATALITIES: OVER 1000 INJURIES/AT LEAST 65 FATALITIES.
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 33.0297/-87.935 AT 443 PM
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 33.6311/-86.7436 AT 614 PM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): APPROXIMATELY 80.3 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: 1.5 MILES CROSSING I-65.
NOTE: MORE DETAILS ON THIS SURVEY TO COME



likey a new update comeing out any time now or vary soon
Quoting Tazmanian:



likey a new update comeing out any time now or vary soon

Taz, please look at the banner at the top of this page:

http://www.srh .noaa.gov/bmx/
Quoting Levi32:


The equatorial Pacific has negative pressure anomalies instead of positive ones. This is an indication that the atmosphere is finally entering the neutral phase of the ENSO.

Another interesting thing is that this will now unleash the MJO to go nuts, after being penned up for so long. It will now be able to make strong runs across the Pacific, continuing across the entire tropical belt, instead of being stuck over the maritime continent and tropical Atlantic. This may allow the MJO to be a good predictive tool this hurricane season.

The first MJO burst in the Pacific is coming over the next couple weeks, and it will be lining up to make the last 10 days of May our first chance for possible early-season mischief.

levi, or anybody else, can you teach me how to read these charts?

And which continent is the maritime continent and where is the Atlantic in all of this?
Quoting Neapolitan:

Taz, please look at the banner at the top of this page:

http://www.srh .noaa.gov/bmx/


am not stupid or any thing i no what the stupid banneer say i go to there site evere few sac or so so am not stupid
Quoting TomTaylor:
levi, or anybody else, can you teach me how to read these charts?

And which continent is the maritime continent and where is the Atlantic in all of this?
LOL
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yep. AGW is supposed to also make the Arctic colder..

Is that a joke? or is there really something published out there that claims that?

Quoting Gearsts:
LOL
ya thanks for the help
Quoting Neapolitan:

Taz, please look at the banner at the top of this page:

http://www.srh .noaa.gov/bmx/




if your the owner of that site then this lock it or tell them too lock it
First Wave?
Quoting TomTaylor:
ya thanks for the help
I find it funny cause i dont know much ether ^^
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yep. AGW is supposed to also make the Arctic colder.

I know some of you heard that the Arctic would be warming the most and the earliest, but this was apparently incorrect as we had some tornadoes within the last week.
its only a prediction, saying one thing is more likely than the other. It doesn't mean tornadoes wont happen. It doesn't mean we won't ever see an EF5.

You distort the words, no one else.
neap The maps for the spider go out to 2080 in the article but as it states it says theoretical it is theoretical i could die from getting hit on the head from a fish falling out of the sky. The penguin article states that the no fishing zone put in place around one of the colonies saved 75% of penguins from having to travel long distances for food and perhaps other no fishing zones should be put in place. That would seem to me that over trawling for fish has more to do with it
Quoting Gearsts:
I find it funny cause i dont know much ether ^^
Oh ok

Thought you were laughing at me
i dont even not wish is real any more on that pages ans wish is ture
Quoting Tazmanian:
i dont even not wish is real any more on that pages ans wish is ture


You're pretty much "right on" most of the time...so keep it up...:)
i dont think there been 88 EF2 Confirmed nado lol


nor do i think there been 226 nado Confirme


and i dont see 16 EF4 i olny see 9 EF 4s



some onne is mass a round with that pages and i wish they lock it too where they cant chage thing am sorry if i jump the gun on Neapolitan a little but am geting sick of this
***********BREAKING NEWS************
From Sydney Daily Telegraph
One person killed in Auckland as tornado hits New Zealand

ONE person is reported dead and others injured in a tornado which has hit Auckland's North Shore.

Police and ambulance officers said the tornado hit around 3pm (1pm AEST) today, NZPA reports.

Inspector Barry Smalley, of police Northern Communications Centre, told NZPA one person had reportedly died in the tornado but other details were scarce.

From New Zealand Herald
Building 'just a shell' after tornado at Albany mall




A roof has collapsed at a mall in the Auckland suburb of Albany and the building is being evacuated, reports say. Police have confirmed injuries in the area.

The Fire Service has dispatched multiple appliances to the area and is receiving 111 calls from residents.

Rob Crawford was on the scene when the tornado struck, where what he saw reminded him of the movie Twister.

"Carparks scattered with the remains of trees, upturned cars. There's iron off the roof of the old Placemakers, just wrapped around it ... total mini destruction within the carpark."

"It's surreal. I think, 'it's a movie set. is this real? is this happening?' But when you see people lying on the ground, covered in blood, clutching their heads, it's damn real."

Samantha Davey from Albany Optometrists said it appeared that part of the roof at the neighbouring Albany Mega Centre had been torn away.

"We are a bit above the mall, looking down from our building we can see part of the mall roof is gone," she said.

"It looks like it's the bit behind Number 1 shoe Warehouse but our building is a bit above on Corinthian Drive so it's hard to tell.

"There's people at Work and Income, they said they saw a car swept up in it."

Miss Davey said the tornado passed "fairly quickly" but wasn't roaring as it may have been imagined.

One of her colleagues said her in-laws lost a few tiles of their roof in Unsworth.

Kate England was working at the Gordon Harris Art & Graphic Supplies just above the mall when the tornado hit.

"The first 10 seconds I was just in shock. It sounded like a bad car crash."

She said she watched a grey car being lifted 20 feet up in the air near the roundabout by the mall from the window of her work.

"It was the most surreal experience."

"Somebody came into the shop and said the Placemakers building, which the company moved out of about a week ago, is now just a shell."

She said the tornado came from the direction of the Westfield Mall, before moving through the Mega Centre.

In nearby Glenfield, an explosion is thought to have been heard at an electrical substation.

A resident, who did not want to be named, said a "crazy" amount of sirens could be heard in the area.

"I've never heard so many sirens in my life, and the birds have gone crazy. They just flew to the north."

While major tornadoes are rare in New Zealand, there have been several deadly ones in recent history.

In August 2004, Rosina Dawn Wikohika, 55, of Levin and her grandson Gary Mason, 10, were killed with a tornado struck the Taranaki town of Motunui, north of Waitara.

On August 25, 1948, a major tornando hit the Hamilton suburb of Frankton, killing three people and damaging or destroying dozens of houses.

New Zealand tornadoes tend to be less deadly than those in other countries. More than 300 people were killed last week in a series of storms and tornadoes in the American South.




Quoting sunlinepr:
Not good!But can someone tell me if that is the first wave??? In my post
hey guys is anyone thinking what I am thinking when you and I look at this



0300z
Has the New Madrid Floodway been opened? The river level at Cairo has taken a drastic drop.

LinkExplosion Footage As US Army Corps Of Engineers Blow First Levee In Birds Point
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission is investigating after a radioactive element is found in the Mississippi river. Authorities say it started at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Plant in Port Gibson. They say they went to check for standing water in an abandoned unit, and found a build up of water. They decided to pump it out, and after taking a sample, they discovered the chemical "tritium" had been released into the river. Officials say the River has diluted the radioactive material, and is not causing harm to the people. Right now the incident is under investigation. There's no word on how much Tritum was pumped into the water.
Quoting TomTaylor:
levi, or anybody else, can you teach me how to read these charts?

And which continent is the maritime continent and where is the Atlantic in all of this?


I don't know much either, But I'm looking and this is what I found (A Powerpoint slide in that link).... will keep on looking and will post any other information...



The box reads:

As for the MJO forecast~ Maritime Continent is southeast Asia, warm pool of the earth. Atlantic is in zone 8.
Hurricane Hunter Tour Schedule:

* Mon., May 2: Mass. Military Reservation, Falmouth, Mass., 2:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m.
* Tue., May 3: Patuxent River Naval Air Station, Md., 1:30 p.m. to 4:00 p.m.
* Wed., May 4: Cherry Point MCAS, N.C., 3:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.
* Thur., May 5: International Airport, Savannah, Ga., 3:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.
* Fri., May 6: Executive Airport, Ft. Lauderdale, Fla., 3:00 p.m. to 4:30 p.m.
Quoting Skyepony:
As for the MJO forecast~ Maritime Continent is southeast Asia, warm pool of the earth. Atlantic is in zone 8.

Thanks Skye, will keep looking for info. to understand the graph...
That's the third unintentional release of radioactive material by a US nuclear powerplant that I've read of since FukushimaDaiichi, Skyepony, and the fifth alert incident.
Haven't run across a single follow-up on any of those stories by any news organization or newsblog as yet...
Quoting Skyepony:
As for the MJO forecast~ Maritime Continent is southeast Asia, warm pool of the earth. Atlantic is in zone 8.
thanks.

I swear they couldn't have picked a more completecated way of creating the mjo forecast.
Quoting TomTaylor:
thanks.

I swear they couldn't have picked a more completecated way of creating the mjo forecast.


The link for MJO

Link

I haven't seen any updated on most the other incidents, Majority were minor. AL doing good on back up generators so far. They got it safely shut down after the storm




Another thing about the graph..you don't tend to get much tropical activity til the MJO is more toward the edges. If it's in the circle it's generally fairly quiet.
Low E of Hawaii
Think of the MJO forecast like the globe, looking down from the top..America/Atlantic is 8 & 1 is Africa, the edges are the equator.. the MJO is the area of most lift & rain.. The past is neatly plotted in a different color for each month. This one shows an ensemble model so it ends in spaghetti.
The MJO graph is divided into 8 octants, simply representing different equatorial regions around the globe. As you move counterclockwise around the center of the graph, you are moving west to east, which is the direction the MJO usually propagates. The farther away the graphed line is from the middle circle, the stronger the MJO signal is. If it goes inside of the circle, it is considered a weak and diffuse signal.

As Skye said, the Atlantic corresponds mostly to Octant 8, though Octants, 7, 8, and 1 can all induce upward motion over the Atlantic.

The maritime continent is basically just all of the islands in southeast Asia, most notably those of Indonesia.

Mezoscale convective system...can it mean it's a wave?
looks like the first of a total of three different explosions have occurred at bird's point. The second two blasts, due to happen today, are located so the escaping water at bird's point the water may be allowed to flow back INTO the mississippi.

Grand lock and dam shows a drop in level, as well.

Personally I think bonne carre and the other one (sorry, can't remember it at the moment) will need to be opened, too.
Morning aqua....

I expect they'll open both spillways [the other one ur thinking about is prolly Old River / Morganza]...

I gotta go make coffee. Have a good day, everyone!
267. IKE
5 day QPF...


Hey, Ike. At least that makes it look like the worst of the rain will be moving off to the NE.... but nothing for W TX or NM....

Wonder if that low pressure system out near Hawaii will hang together long enough to be a sort of "Pineapple Express"?
Holy crap - level predicted at Red River ldg and Baton Rouge are up by 3.5 feet from last night?!?!?!
I may be reading this wrong, but looks like they are predicting a crest of 65' at Natchez, MS whereas the record crest is 58' in '37.

Derrr
if i was in charge i'd try to save what oil america has. its better to pay the high prices now so we incorporate alternative energies like solar natural gas and wind. our children deserve us to save them something. sorry suv lovers your day is numbered regardless.
Quoting IKE:
From CNN....
Gas could top $4 nationwide this week
................................................. ................................................

It's $3.95.9 here at my location.....per gallon.

I got back from Europe last Friday(Germany), and I realize what they pay per gallon of gas is a heck of a lot more taxes than we pay, but a gallon over there figured with the exchange rate comes in at $9.00 a gallon! And thats the lowest octane grade. It goes up from there. They pay about 30 to 40 cents less per liter for diesel than we do. Needless to say the autobahns and streets aren't clogged with big SUV's and pickups, but clogged at times with lots of small cars. And of course, public transportation is used like crazy along with BIKES everywhere.


Crazy front advisories in TX
274. IKE

Quoting HouGalv08:
I got back from Europe last Friday(Germany), and I realize what they pay per gallon of gas is a heck of a lot more taxes than we pay, but a gallon over there figured with the exchange rate comes in at $9.00 a gallon! And thats the lowest octane grade. It goes up from there. They pay about 30 to 40 cents less per liter for diesel than we do. Needless to say the autobahns and streets aren't clogged with big SUV's and pickups, but clogged at times with lots of small cars. And of course, public transportation is used like crazy along with BIKES everywhere.
That's awful.

What amazes me when I drive around in my job...is the number of people that are driving with a cell phone glued to their ear.
Quoting emcf30:


Crazy front advisories in TX

Made even crazier by the fact that those areas will be back in the mid-90s by the weekend. So the frost will kill most any springtime shoot unfortunate enough to push its way up through the parched soil, and the relentless heat and low humidity over the weekend and into next week will finish off what's left.

Nice...
Quoting IKE:

That's awful.

What amazes me when I drive around in my job...is the number of people that are driving with a cell phone glued to their ear.

Oh, I seldom drive with my phone to my ear; it's too hard to text that way... :-\
277. IKE

Quoting Neapolitan:

Oh, I seldom drive with my phone to my ear; it's too hard to text that way... :-\
lol.....what did these people do before cell phones came along?
Good morning.
I was surprised to just read that May is Tornado Month.
However it was on Accuweather blog which also says this:

According to AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Ken Reeves, years in which April was an unusually active month for tornadoes typically were not followed by well-above-normal activity in May and June.

"When you see an April that is very busy, you don't typically see May and June also very active, because the pattern that really supports the very active tornadic activity in April doesn't necessarily continue it, as the threat moves farther to the north and to the east," said Reeves.

Tornadoes are a rare phenomena and require the right ingredients to come together in order to form. Reeves explained that the weather pattern that has been allowing these ingredients to come together in April typically isn't conducive to well-above-normal tornado activity in May and June.

As spring progresses, the threat for severe weather and tornadoes tends to shift northward and eastward across the Plains and East, as the jet stream, an area of maximum winds high up in the atmosphere, shifts northward.

Link
Quoting Chicklit:
Good morning.
I was surprised to just read that May is Tornado Month.

Wish there was a way to *POOF* tornado month...I think they've had enough! =)
Quoting KeysieLife:

Wish there was a way to *POOF* tornado month...I think they've had enough! =)

Second that Keysie.
Looks like if April's active May won't be as much though so maybe a break in the bad weather is just around the bend.
Extreme Weather: Tornadoes
L. David Roper
http://arts.bev.net/cropper
7 February, 2011

Abstract of Study.

"Conclusion
No correlation was observed between the average Earth temperature and the relative tornado energy, as crudely defined in this article. However, the correlation is high, 0.75, between the number of tornadoes and the average Earth temperature. It is highly likely that increasing Earth temperatures due to global warming will cause an increase in the number of tornadoes and cause more tornadoes to occur during fall months."


Link

Some good info here on the increasing number of tornadoes.



Wow... 312 tornadoes in ONE 24-hour period?

NOAA: Record 312 tornadoes in 24 hours last week

WASHINGTON — Preliminary government estimates say there were more tornadoes in a single day last week than any other day in U.S. history.

Government analysts said Monday there were 362 tornadoes during last week's outbreak, including a record-setting 312 in one 24-hour period.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the largest previous number on record in one event occurred on April 3-4, 1974, with 148 tornadoes.

NOAA said 342 people were killed during the 24-hour period from 8 a.m. Wednesday to Thursday.

It was the deadliest single day for tornadoes since March 18, 1925, a tornado outbreak that had 747 fatalities across seven states.

Meanwhile, the recovery effort across the South continued on Monday. Officials with the Federal Emergency Management Agency reported that they had disaster recovery centers open throughout the region and had signed up thousands of households for federal assistance.

In Tennessee, where 34 people died, Marvin Quinn, 79, collected broken jars of home-canned peaches and pickles from the rubble. He said relief workers had been keeping him and his wife well fed.

"I've been eating more in the last four days than I ever have," he said. "Every time I turn around there's someone with food, water, Gatorade."

Unlike Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the response to the latest natural disaster has worked because agencies at different levels of government are working together and are telling residents where they can get help, emergency management consultant Barry Scanlon said.

"They seem to be working well together," said Scanlon, president of Witt Associates and a former FEMA worker.

http://www.tampabay.com/incoming/noaa-record-312- tornadoes-in-24-hours-last-week/1167448
This is the revised 2011 Spring-Summer Tornado Forecast.
Edited May 1, 2011
US VERSION
Using a long-range model, the CFS, this forecast is being perfected consistently.
La Nina is expected to persist throughout this tornado season, and that will play quite a factor throughout the summer and spring.
Below is The Weather Centre's overall outlook for this tornado forecast.
Link
July has the Gulf free and open while the West is extremely dry. August is very similar, but humidity values are higher. Below is The Weather Centre's Percentage chances for tornadoes.

There is a very nice set up of a very dry air mass over the West US. There is also an open Gulf flowing freely into the Central and East US.
These two factors alone are more than sufficient for tornado and severe thunderstorm formation.
Below is the latest humidity average for the US in the month of July, then August using the CFS.
Below is The Weather Centre's overall outlook for this tornado forecast.
Quoting IKE:

lol.....what did these people do before cell phones came along?
Quoting Chicklit:

Second that Keysie.
Looks like if April's active May won't be as much though so maybe a break in the bad weather is just around the bend.

We'll just have to hope that this year of surprising weather doesn't buck that trend and give us something different. Having the number one and number four largest tornado outbreaks in history happen just two weeks apart shows what can happen...
285. IKE
No clear number on how many people missing from Alabama tornadoes

By Charles J. Dean -- The Birmingham News


As rescue workers continued their search Monday for possible survivors
of last week's deadly tornadoes, it was unclear just how many people
really are missing across the state.
The daily situation report from the Alabama Emergency Management
Agency reported eight people missing statewide -- seven of those in
Marion County and one in Elmore County.
But in Tuscaloosa, one of the hardest hit areas with 39 killed, Mayor
Walt Maddox's office was reporting 340 people missing as of Monday. The
number was even higher Sunday, when the city was listing 370 people
missing.
Tuscaloosa officials are quick to point out that missing is not the same thing as dead.
"We do not presume any of those are dead," said Vickie Gilliland, an
aide to Maddox. "If someone called the police or sheriff's office to
report a missing person, that name got on the list. If someone called
the mayor's office to report a missing person, that name got on the
list. It's as complete a list as we can make it, but we also know there
may be some mistakes on it too."
Gilliland said the number may be high because some names have been
duplicated or, once a person has been found, the person who reported
them missing did not call back to have the name taken off the list.
Gilliland said police and the county's sheriff's office have been attempting to contact each person on the list.
"It is putting a strain on police, but if someone called to report a
missing person we are going to do all we can to find them," Gilliland
said.
Efforts to reach the state EMA about the discrepancy were unsuccessful Monday.
Counties in the greater Birmingham metro area hit hard by the storms
reported no one missing as of Monday according to the state EMA data.
"I think at most we had maybe eight persons reported as missing in
the first few days and they have been accounted for now," said Regina
Myers, assistant EMA director in Walker County.
Jefferson County has had a high of about 50 people who were
"unaccounted for," but none had been classified as "missing," said Mark
Kelly, public information officer for Jefferson County EMA. He was
unsure how many of those people still had not been accounted for late
Monday.
Kelly said the names of people who were unaccounted for came from
several sources. Most of them were reported by law enforcement agencies,
he said, and some were added based on residents' calls to EMA.
If we "take" today's weather anomaly in Poland to incoming hurricane season,we would see...30 named storms or more!It's 3rd May,and it's snowing heavily!It didn't happened ever before!LOL!


Birds Point blast of levee caught on Helicorder.
FLOOD WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING DOWN THE SAINT FRANCIS
RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES FROM LAKE WAPPAPELLO DOWNSTREAM...POSSIBLY
TO THE MISSOURI STATE LINE. WATER LEVELS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ON THE
SAINT FRANCIS RIVER HAVE RARELY BEEN EXPERIENCED IN THE MANY DECADES
OF HISTORICAL RECORDKEEPING.


IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SAINT FRANCIS RIVER AT FISK IS
STILL FORECAST TO REACH A RECORD CREST OF 28.0 FEET BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EXCEEDING THE HIGHEST STAGE ON RECORD. THE EXACT IMPACT ON
AREAS SURROUNDING THE SAINT FRANCIS RIVER NEAR FISK REMAINS UNKNOWN
AT THIS TIME. AT 400 AM CDT TUESDAY...THE STAGE AT FISK WAS 26.2
FEET. AT 24.0 FEET...MORE THAN TEN THOUSAND ACRES OF LAND FLOOD ON
THE LEFT BANK NEAR FISK
...AND AT 27.5 FEET...THE RIGHT BANK LEVEE IS
OVERTOPPED.
Link

289. IKE

well if anyone cares shear is expected to ease up in the southern TropAtlantic and western caribbean

in 48 hours
Quoting HouGalv08:
I got back from Europe last Friday(Germany), and I realize what they pay per gallon of gas is a heck of a lot more taxes than we pay, but a gallon over there figured with the exchange rate comes in at $9.00 a gallon! And thats the lowest octane grade. It goes up from there. They pay about 30 to 40 cents less per liter for diesel than we do. Needless to say the autobahns and streets aren't clogged with big SUV's and pickups, but clogged at times with lots of small cars. And of course, public transportation is used like crazy along with BIKES everywhere.


I wish it was bikes everywhere. There's still SUVs here, usually flashing their high beams to inform the peasents to tip their hat (change lanes). The worst are the BMWs (Big Money Wannabees).

It's too scary to commute with bikes in most places in Italy. Biking is respected on weekends with crowds of crazy people everywhere but during the week there aren't that many (here in Italy).

However, some cities are really changing. They are installing the rent a bike schemes and closing city centres. Hope fully that is the future: park outside cities and public transport/bike/walk it in.

Yes, I know European cities are a totally different scale from US cities so it would have to be different plans in the US.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well if anyone cares shear is expected to ease up in the southern TropAtlantic and western caribbean



I care! LOL There's a big blob coming off of Africa pretty quick, and if shear is low? What are the chances we could see a new Invest in a few days?
290 & 291.

Yes, but still mostly hostile (except far western Caribbean... but then it has nowhere to go)
Quoting KeysieLife:


I care! LOL There's a big blob coming off of Africa pretty quick, and if shear is low? What are the chances we could see a new Invest in a few days?
EXTREMELY low. like... none.

The wave train doesn't get going until late July, usually. For June, don't look off Africa, look for stalled fronts and such.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well if anyone cares shear is expected to ease up in the southern TropAtlantic and western caribbean



If it was June 3rd instead of May 3rd I might be interested.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yep. AGW is supposed to also make the Arctic colder.

I know some of you heard that the Arctic would be warming the most and the earliest, but this was apparently incorrect as we had some tornadoes within the last week.


A new report on the warming in the Arctic:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/03/us-clim ate-arctic-idUSTRE7422YQ20110503

OSLO (Reuters) - Quickening climate change in the Arctic including a thaw of Greenland's ice could raise world sea levels by up to 1.6 meters by 2100, an international report showed on Tuesday.

Such a rise -- above most past scientific estimates -- would add to threats to coasts from Bangladesh to Florida, low-lying Pacific islands and cities from London to Shanghai. It would also, for instance, raise costs of building tsunami barriers in Japan.

"The past six years (until 2010) have been the warmest period ever recorded in the Arctic," according to the Oslo-based Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), which is backed by the eight-nation Arctic Council.
Ran across this image showing the path of the supercell that tracked nearly 400 miles last Wednesday and spawned numerous tornadoes, including the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham killer:

It's a twister!
Quoting KeysieLife:


I care! LOL There's a big blob coming off of Africa pretty quick, and if shear is low? What are the chances we could see a new Invest in a few days?


1% chance. CV season doesn't begin until July and really kicks in August. Look closer to home starting in a few weeks.
Quoting jeffs713:
EXTREMELY low. like... none.

The wave train doesn't get going until late July, usually. For June, don't look off Africa, look for stalled fronts and such.


I know there's a much higher probability of development in the WCarib, but looking at the location of the blob (post 249) and the extremely favorable wind shear all the way across at that lat/log Link

Not sure it isn't a possiblilty...

Wishcasting? LOL
Cool image Nea
Quoting greentortuloni:


I wish it was bikes everywhere. There's still SUVs here, usually flashing their high beams to inform the peasents to tip their hat (change lanes). The worst are the BMWs (Big Money Wannabees).

It's too scary to commute with bikes in most places in Italy. Biking is respected on weekends with crowds of crazy people everywhere but during the week there aren't that many (here in Italy).

However, some cities are really changing. They are installing the rent a bike schemes and closing city centres. Hope fully that is the future: park outside cities and public transport/bike/walk it in.

Yes, I know European cities are a totally different scale from US cities so it would have to be different plans in the US.

Where in Italy are you? I'm going to Florence in October
I can see this is going to be the second Wishcasting event of the pre 2011 season. LOL
Oh well guess it is better that all the death and destruction we have had in the past several weeks
Quoting FtMyersgal:

Where in Italy are you? I'm going to Florence in October


Trento.

Florence is actually one of the cities I was thinking of. They've recently closed more of the downtown. Now the entire Duomo area is pedestrian all the way to Ponte Vecchio. That is due to the mayor who, God knows how in Italy, is young and seems to enjoy telling the entrenched politicos to go put it in a hat. You will see more of him in the future.
Missing Boy Scouts rescued from Ark. wilderness area
Group, which was trapped by high water, was spotted from the air

Link
Quoting emcf30:
I can see this is going to be the second Wishcasting event of the pre 2011 season. LOL
Oh well guess it is better that all the death and destruction we have had in the past several weeks


LOL Yep! But more exciting than a Charlie Sheen show! =) Come on rain!
301. Total wishcasting. The cards are VERY stacked against it, and right now, anything coming off Africa usually doesn't sustain itself for long over water. Temps are barely warm enough, upper-air dynamics are mostly junk, SAL is (usually) saying hello, and there is a reason the Cape Verde season doesn't get going until mid-July.
Quoting IKE:

lol.....what did these people do before cell phones came along?


Drive their cars. :P
Quoting jeffs713:
301. Total wishcasting. The cards are VERY stacked against it, and right now, anything coming off Africa usually doesn't sustain itself for long over water. Temps are barely warm enough, upper-air dynamics are mostly junk, SAL is (usually) saying hello, and there is a reason the Cape Verde season doesn't get going until mid-July.


LOL just trying to lighten the mood after so many days of horrible news...



Wishcast complete! =)


Alternative energy
Weather in the next week or so looks stormy.. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2011

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ON FRI/D4...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AS
A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BENEATH A WEAK NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WHILE STRONG HEATING MAY
RESULT IN CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE...ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE
PARTICULARLY SEVERE WITH ONLY 50S DEWPOINTS AND CAPPING CONCERNS.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE MID MO/UPPER MS VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT DRIVEN BY A LOW LEVEL JET...BUT MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS.

THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH DAY 5...BUT
PREDICTABILITY AND OVERALL POTENTIAL DO NOT WARRANT SEVERE AREAS AT
THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THEY DO AGREE THAT
BEGINNING ON SUN/D6...A LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WRN STATES...WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS WOULD PORTEND A GREATER SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 3-4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE DEVELOPING
FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE MIDWEST BEGINNING ON MON/D7 INTO
TUE/D8 AND LIKELY EXTENDING INTO D9. IF TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE
PERSISTS...SEVERE RISK AREAS WILL LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING IN
SUBSEQUENT D4-8 OUTLOOKS.
Quoting IKE:

lol.....what did these people do before cell phones came along?
..Like you dont know...:)
Quoting greentortuloni:


Trento.

Florence is actually one of the cities I was thinking of. They've recently closed more of the downtown. Now the entire Duomo area is pedestrian all the way to Ponte Vecchio. That is due to the mayor who, God knows how in Italy, is young and seems to enjoy telling the entrenched politicos to go put it in a hat. You will see more of him in the future.

Thanks. My husband and I planned on mostly walking in Florence. We wouldn't dream of renting a car LOL
Quoting emcf30:
LOL.
Quoting emcf30:



i would watch what you post some one may be reporting you all so some one us got a little banned not too long a go for posting too many pohotos that dos not go with this blog so i would watch it
Taz, its not peak season yet. And thats the first one posted by EMC...
Quoting emcf30:


Lol.
Quoting jeffs713:
Taz, its not peak season yet. And thats the first one posted by EMC...



Admins dont care if it peak of seaon or not if the Admin see that some one posting too many off key photos or some in that dos not go with this blog why not you ask RitaEvac sheor he was doing the same thing and got a few days banned for it
Quoting Tazmanian:



i would watch what you post some one may be reporting you all so some one us got a little banned not too long a go for posting too many pohotos that dos not go with this blog so i would watch it


I understand, after several weeks of discussing all the death and destruction on this blog, a little humor does not hurt, but fully get what your saying. Thanks

Now on the weather, as others, we need some rain n CFL. brush fires starting to occur in the area again
Lastnight~ something that youtube posted showing the explosion of the leeve got me listning to..one of the next videos, really runs off in conspirisy world & indulge me here..ya'll know how I occationally like looking at these with an open mind til something like a loop current eddy braking off in the GOM is being perceived as something unnatural.

This one was about a bunch of nuclear detonations underground along the New Madrid fault line. Trying to release some stress. They got everyone evacuated..working under the cover of dark. Yeah I know~ we are saving Ciaro, but their argument was we let some other smaller towns go under first..it's all a cover up for something bigger.. Also those strong fore shocks in Japan & that recent quake in the GOM were claimed to be a result of underground nuclear explosions. They were saying it was evident from the USGS plots they were explosions not earthquakes.

Now I do remember..'09 when the MS river experience extreme flooding the Madrid fault line wolk up & when N Korea detonated that Nuclear bomb underground we knew it was a bomb by some plot someone posted..like that has some sort of signature different from an earthquake. Any earthquake junkies out there this morning that know what graph I'm talking about? I don't know where they are.
Sky was it helicorder or something different
Frankly I don't know why they blow up Levee. He does flood us with info, but he seems a decent sort.
Quoting Skyepony:
Lastnight~ something that youtube posted showing the explosion of the leeve got me listning to..one of the next videos, really runs off in conspirisy world & indulge me here..ya'll know how I occationally like looking at these with an open mind til something like a loop current eddy braking off in the GOM is being perceived as something unnatural.

This one was about a bunch of nuclear detonations underground along the New Madrid fault line. Trying to release some stress. They got everyone evacuated..working under the cover of dark. Yeah I know~ we are saving Ciaro, but their argument was we let some other smaller towns go under first..it's all a cover up for something bigger.. Also those strong fore shocks in Japan & that recent quake in the GOM were claimed to be a result of underground nuclear explosions. They were saying it was evident from the USGS plots they were explosions not earthquakes.

Now I do remember..'09 when the MS river experience extreme flooding the Madrid fault line wolk up & when N Korea detonated that Nuclear bomb underground we knew it was a bomb by some plot someone posted..like that has some sort of signature different from an earthquake. Any earthquake junkies out there this morning that know what graph I'm talking about? I don't know where they are.

Bombs and explosions have very strong P-waves, and rather weak S-waves and surface waves. Also, explosions start very strongly, and quickly fade, while quakes start slowly and build.



These poor folks, front needs to hurry up and move out
humor can be good - sometimes we need a dam release (I'll stop now...)
Quoting Skyepony:
Lastnight~ something that youtube posted showing the explosion of the leeve got me listning to..one of the next videos, really runs off in conspirisy world & indulge me here..ya'll know how I occationally like looking at these with an open mind til something like a loop current eddy braking off in the GOM is being perceived as something unnatural.

This one was about a bunch of nuclear detonations underground along the New Madrid fault line. Trying to release some stress. They got everyone evacuated..working under the cover of dark. Yeah I know~ we are saving Ciaro, but their argument was we let some other smaller towns go under first..it's all a cover up for something bigger.. Also those strong fore shocks in Japan & that recent quake in the GOM were claimed to be a result of underground nuclear explosions. They were saying it was evident from the USGS plots they were explosions not earthquakes.

Now I do remember..'09 when the MS river experience extreme flooding the Madrid fault line wolk up & when N Korea detonated that Nuclear bomb underground we knew it was a bomb by some plot someone posted..like that has some sort of signature different from an earthquake. Any earthquake junkies out there this morning that know what graph I'm talking about? I don't know where they are.

Well, the seismographic signature of a nuclear explosion is radically different from that of an earthquake; an earthquake signature slowly ramps up as a fault ruptures, then almost as slowly fades away. A nuke's seismogram, on the other hand, starts with an instantaneous bang, then quickly fades to nothingness. So it would be pretty easy for anyone with access to a backyard seismograph and a little knowledge to tell whether nukes had been set off.

On the bigger picture, I can't see the government doing this; the risks would be simply too great and the rewards too few. Besides, the pressure on the New Madrid fault has been building for 200 years; it seems that a properly-placed nuke of sufficient size could maybe set the thing off, so what would be the difference between that and a natural quake so far as damage is concerned?
Quoting emcf30:
Sky was it helicorder or something different


It may have been or could be like Jeff713 posted. I've seen people point out the differences for different events in the past here. People that know way more about earthquakes than me. Kinda looking for their take.
Quoting DestinJeff:
The re port feature is the worst thing about the blog. Not so much the humor.
Humor is good sometimes....hail the power of the mighty chart..
If you managed to trigger an earthquake with a bomb would it look like bomb imposed over earthquake?
Quoting Skyepony:
If you managed to trigger an earthquake with a bomb would it look like bomb imposed over earthquake?

I would think you would have the bomb signature show up first followed by the typical earthquake signature
Quoting Skyepony:
If you managed to trigger an earthquake with a bomb would it look like bomb imposed over earthquake?
In theory, yes, but there are a few catches... bombs put off P-waves in abundance (compression waves), while quakes also put those off. The quake is unlikely to be instantaneous (due to the need to propagate the waves outward along the rupture zone), so an observer would likely see two separate sets of P-waves. Secondly, the New Madrid fault, IIRC, is a transverse fault, meaning the two edges are sliding past each other on a N/S plane. I really, really don't think a nuke can act as a "spark plug" to start a quake - not to mention the machinations to get the nuke in place would be nigh-impossible to ignore.

And finally, even underground tests release some radionucletides, which would be detectable, and have a slight effect of reducing the secrecy.
Quoting Skyepony:
If you managed to trigger an earthquake with a bomb would it look like bomb imposed over earthquake?

I suppose so: a sharp, full-scale bang followed by a short falloff, then a slow buildup to a lengthy rumble. Depending, of course, on the size of the quake created; smaller, localized quakes obviously have a very short signature as there's no long fault break to drag it out.
Quoting Skyepony:
If you managed to trigger an earthquake with a bomb would it look like bomb imposed over earthquake?


Essentially, yes. You'd have a big initial spike and then sometime after (maybe even immediately) you'd have the long, irregular rumbling of the earthquake signature. But I'm skeptical of the nuclear test theory. I try to keep an open mind too, but there are multiple ways of detecting a nuclear test (seismographs, post-explosion interferometry of the ground surface, trace amounts of nuclear material in the air and/or water) and I'd guess that the world media would jump all over a story like that if anyone gathered enough evidence to support it (like they did when N. Korea tested the underground nuke).

I tend to apply Occam's Razor to theories like this... If there are two competing theories (real earthquake vs nuclear test), then go with the theory that requires the fewest assumptions.
This image shows rainfall for the past 30 days over the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. Easy to see why it's flooding, no? (From NWS Southern Region HQ)

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Video: Birds Point levee breach, slowed down frame by frame



Real time and slowed down frame by frame play back of the explosion breaching the Birds Point levee in Mississippi County, Mo. on Monday. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers blew an 11,000 foot hole in the Birds Point levee, breaching it to allow water to fill the floodway and relieve pressure and lower the flood levels upstream at Cairo, Ill., and other communities. Video by David Carson-dcarson@post-dispatch.com
Quoting Rainman32:
Video: Birds Point levee breach, slowed down frame by frame



Real time and slowed down frame by frame play back of the explosion breaching the Birds Point levee in Mississippi County, Mo. on Monday. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers blew an 11,000 foot hole in the Birds Point levee, breaching it to allow water to fill the floodway and relieve pressure and lower the flood levels upstream at Cairo, Ill., and other communities. Video by David Carson-dcarson@post-dispatch.com

I like how you can easily see the primacord detonating at its leisurely 4 miles-per-second pace. ;-)
Well, it's daylight in Missouri now... I'm surprised we haven't seen any images of the flood waters pouring across the now-destroyed levee. Anyone found any photos taken today? I did a quick search and turned up nothin'...
Quoting Neapolitan:

I suppose so: a sharp, full-scale bang followed by a short falloff, then a slow buildup to a lengthy rumble. Depending, of course, on the size of the quake created; smaller, localized quakes obviously have a very short signature as there's no long fault break to drag it out.

Wouldn't the heat created by a nuclear explosion fuse the fault together hence making the next quake even more destructive.
Quoting Neapolitan:

I like how you can easily see the primacord detonating at its leisurely 4 miles-per-second pace. ;-)
"leisurely" hehe.

Yes, it is very cool seeing the primacord, and also how they did the detonation from a central point radiating out.
There has never been a Nuclear Device used in the CONUS for any fault relief,,the EMP sig alone would have been a given,easily.



Lawdy,,have mercy.


Quoting AussieStorm:

Wouldn't the heat created by a nuclear explosion fuse the fault together hence making the next quake even more destructive.


I think faults are too complex to be "fused" by a single explosion. Rather than imagining two bricks sliding against eachother, imagine two bricks with a 3-D puzzle of broken brick chunks and gravel between them. The failure surfaces during an earthquake are often numerous and along fractures which may only be connected via a very complex path.

I definitely think it's possible, theoretically, to trigger an earthquake with a nuke, but the fault would have to be ready to go (i.e. - stress within the fault would have to be near the breaking point) and you'd have to place the nuke at the correct location and depth to be successful.
Birds Point New Madrid Floodway Joint Information Center
The Corps estimates the next blast in the lower levee section (outflow crevasse) of the Birds Point New Madrid Floodway operation could take place around noon. We'll continue to post updates as soon as they become available.
9 minutes ago

Birds Point New Madrid Floodway Joint Information Center
We are planning to post images of this morning's flyover as soon as we can
45 minutes ago
Pat~ Yeah, it doesn't make much sense. That was built to be blown for extreme flooding..the helicorder ecmf posted earlier looks like bomb, no real earthquake following. You can see there has been very weak tremors like the weight of the flooding.

MrMixon has another good point about how quick nuclear explosions have been noted in the past..
Quoting MrMixon:


I think faults are too complex to be "fused" by a single explosion. Rather than imagining two bricks sliding against eachother, imagine two bricks with a 3-D puzzle of broken brick chunks and gravel between them. The failure surfaces during an earthquake are often numerous and along fractures which may only be connected via a very complex path.

I definitely think it's possible, theoretically, to trigger an earthquake with a nuke, but the fault would have to be ready to go (i.e. - stress within the fault would have to be near the breaking point) and you'd have to place the nuke at the correct location and depth to be successful.


Of course it's possible! Hasn't anyone seen the movie 10.5? LOL
353. P451
Quoting KeysieLife:


Of course it's possible! Hasn't anyone seen the movie 10.0? LOL


Ha! I've never even heard of it... but it sounds like something Dr. DeJong should've shown us in our structural geology class...
Quoting KeysieLife:


Of course it's possible! Hasn't anyone seen the movie 10.0? LOL

LOL.

Run this one through Occam's Razor...

Possibility A: Hollywood makes a movie VERY loosely based on reality, that is designed to sell (very few) tickets and/or commercial spots.
Possibility B: Our government, in an effort to depopulate a very productive agricultural region, detonates a nuclear weapon underground without any outside knowledge, in order to set off a major earthquake near several major metropolitan areas.
from 6abc.com:

Among those that could be tapped are the 58-year-old Morganza floodway near Morgan City, La., and the Bonnet Carre floodway about 30 miles north of New Orleans. The Morganza has been pressed into service just once, in 1973. The Bonnet Carre, which was christened in 1932, has been opened up nine times since 1937, the most recent in 2008.

Officials in Louisiana and Mississippi are warning that the river could bring a surge of water unseen since 1927.

The corps has said about 241 miles of levees along the Mississippi River between Cape Girardeau, Mo., and the Gulf of Mexico need to be made taller or strengthened. George Sills, a former Army Corps engineer and levee expert in Vicksburg, Miss., said the volume of water moving down the river would test the levee system south of Memphis into Louisiana.


I so often think of flooding, as deep water that is standing...not so often as deep water that is rushing. That's a major part of the problem- not only the depth and excess of the water, but the FLOW that can add so much more damage to the underneath, where we have no clear idea of what's happening.
Quoting aquak9:
from 6abc.com:

Among those that could be tapped are the 58-year-old Morganza floodway near Morgan City, La., and the Bonnet Carre floodway about 30 miles north of New Orleans. The Morganza has been pressed into service just once, in 1973. The Bonnet Carre, which was christened in 1932, has been opened up nine times since 1937, the most recent in 2008.

Officials in Louisiana and Mississippi are warning that the river could bring a surge of water unseen since 1927.

The corps has said about 241 miles of levees along the Mississippi River between Cape Girardeau, Mo., and the Gulf of Mexico need to be made taller or strengthened. George Sills, a former Army Corps engineer and levee expert in Vicksburg, Miss., said the volume of water moving down the river would test the levee system south of Memphis into Louisiana.


I so often think of flooding, as deep water that is standing...not so often as deep water that is rushing. That's a major part of the problem- not only the depth and excess of the water, but the FLOW that can add so much more damage to the underneath, where we have no clear idea of what's happening.

When would the flow of this water re-enter the river?
I am no geologist, but it seems like you'd have to get it just right, and how could you, without knowing exactly how much tension is in the fault? Too big of a pop, and you compress the fault more, and the stress builds up even worse before it releases. Too little and you are wasting your time digging holes just right. Unless Chesapeake Energy has been practicing this....

Seems like I read, after the really bad New Madrid quakes from way back, the Mississippi River flowed backwards for awhile. That would be a mess right now.

But fun to think about.

359. P451
12HR WV Imagery ending 1215pm et.

Quoting MrMixon:


I think faults are too complex to be "fused" by a single explosion. Rather than imagining two bricks sliding against eachother, imagine two bricks with a 3-D puzzle of broken brick chunks and gravel between them. The failure surfaces during an earthquake are often numerous and along fractures which may only be connected via a very complex path.

I definitely think it's possible, theoretically, to trigger an earthquake with a nuke, but the fault would have to be ready to go (i.e. - stress within the fault would have to be near the breaking point) and you'd have to place the nuke at the correct location and depth to be successful.

I wasn't thinking of fusing the whole fault, just the part where the nuclear explosion would to happen. wouldn't that lock the fault and that extra stress cause a bigger quake, or extend the time between to the next quake?

2:45am and I'm off to bed. Goodnight
Aussie- don't know if this helps- I think the area outlined in green, is the area they expect to be flooded after birds point goes. Then the water is supposed to re-enter the river further south.


362. P451
Quoting aquak9:
from 6abc.com:





I so often think of flooding, as deep water that is standing...not so often as deep water that is rushing. That's a major part of the problem- not only the depth and excess of the water, but the FLOW that can add so much more damage to the underneath, where we have no clear idea of what's happening.


It is often overlooked that it's a surge. Somewhat like storm surge or tsunami surge. It's not just water pooling from rainfall. It's water on the move. It is unpredictable and it can rise rapidly. It catches those off guard outside of the actual rainfall area the worst. You're just not expecting it. You would hope most today do pay attention to broadcasts but there's always someone that says they had no idea it was coming.
No new news on the Grand Gulf Nuclear Plant leaking tritium into the Mississippi River.
Quoting MrMixon:


Ha! I've never even heard of it... but it sounds like something Dr. DeJong should've shown us in our structural geology class...


Edit: The movie was actually 10.5..based on the San Andreas fault and they used nukes to try and fuse the fault...making it worse. LOL Awesome!

Quoting dfwWxDude:
I am no geologist, but it seems like you'd have to get it just right, and how could you, without knowing exactly how much tension is in the fault? Too big of a pop, and you compress the fault more, and the stress builds up even worse before it releases. Too little and you are wasting your time digging holes just right. Unless Chesapeake Energy has been practicing this....

Seems like I read, after the really bad New Madrid quakes from way back, the Mississippi River flowed backwards for awhile. That would be a mess right now.

But fun to think about.



In the movie, the Kern River was flowing backwards as well.
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