WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Two EF-3 tornadoes confirmed from Christmas Day; heavy snows hit 19 states

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:04 PM GMT on December 27, 2012

Winter Storm Euclid continues its U.S. tour today, and is pounding New England with heavy snows, high winds, and coastal flooding. The impressive storm set a record for most tornadoes spawned on Christmas Day, as 13 tornadoes have been confirmed (with at least 12 other suspected tornadoes still unrated.) The previous record for most tornadoes on Christmas Day was twelve, back in 1969. Yesterday, Euclid spawned an additional confirmed tornado in North Carolina. No more tornadoes are expected today.

Euclid has dumped more than six inches of snow in 19 states--Arkansas, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio, West Virginia, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Maine, and Texas. According to the latest NWS Storm Summary, the greatest snowfall so far has been at Albion, Illinois, where 18.3" has fallen. This will likely be exceeded in Maine, where up to two feet of snow is expected before the storm ends on Friday. Fortunately, the tornadoes from the storm are not being blamed for any deaths, though strong thunderstorm winds killed two people on Christmas Day due to falling trees. At least two of the Christmas Day tornadoes were rated EF-3. The EF-3 that hit Pennington, in Southeast Texas, completely destroyed a feed store and a restaurant, and had winds up to 150 mph. The other EF-3 hit McNeil, Mississippi, and was rated a weak EF-3 with winds of 140 mph. The tornado cut a path 24 miles long, injured 8 people, and damaged or destroyed 46 homes. Only four other EF-3 tornadoes have been recorded on Christmas Day since 1950, according to the Tornado History Project. The latest in the year an EF-3 tornado has touched down is December 31. This occurred just two years ago, in 2010, when five EF-3 tornadoes raked Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois.

Powerful southwest winds from the storm created a significant storm surge of 5 - 6 feet which caused moderate coastal flooding this morning at Sandy Hook, NJ and King's Point, NY. The storm surge in New York City at Battery Park reached 5.9 feet, but occurred near low tide, so only minor flooding was reported. Some peak wind gusts from the storm:

66 mph at Tuckerton Shores, NJ
64 mph at Dover AFB, Delaware
64 mph at Boone, NC
60 mph at Eatons Neck, NJ


Figure 1. Damage from the tornado that hit Maxie, MS on Christmas Day was EF-2. This tornado did EF-3 damage near McNeil, MS. Image credit: NWS Jackson.


Figure 2. Storm reports from Christmas Day, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, show a preliminary 35 tornado reports.


Video 1. This remarkable video from surveillance cameras at a Walgreen's in Mobile, AL during the December 25, 2012 EF-2 tornado show cars and debris flying through the parking lot, and it is fortunate no one was killed. I like the reaction of the guy pushing his cart outside the door into the tornado. Whoa! Not a good idea! This was the second tornado to hit Mobile in the past week, as an EF-1 tornado also hit the city on December 20.

Our new featured blogger, meteorologist Lee Grenci, offers a detailed analysis of the Christmas Day tornado outbreak.

Jeff Masters
Marshmallow World
Marshmallow World
Teasel in the snow reminded me of that song...
The Fallen
The Fallen
A recent heavy wet snow caused many trees and branches in the Pheasant Branch Conservancy to fall.
BlizzardWarning
BlizzardWarning
We didn't wake up to a White Christmas, but had one before the day was over. We do get some snow, but I can't ever remember us having a Blizzard Warning and we did get from 10

Winter Weather Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc..looks like a cold and stormy winter this is going to be, and starting early too
Thank you Dr. Masters... Such a terrible thing to happen.
warming up a bit here now,air is cold but the sunshine is kinda warm..............................
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Thank you Dr. Masters... Such a terrible thing to happen.
yes it was one horrible day, we watched and posted about it here all day long huh,been a real long time since ive seen so much terrible weather in so many states, in one day..wow
oh oh..to my north................URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
316 AM EST THU DEC 27 2012

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES...

.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPERIENCE 2 TO 3 HOURS OF TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW FREEZING DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

FLZ039-042-272200-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FZ.A.0011.121228T0700Z-121228T1300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS
316 AM EST THU DEC 27 2012

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE...29 TO 32 DEGREES FOR UP TO 3 HOURS AT NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.

* IMPACTS...COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT
INDOORS TONIGHT. PETS SHOULD ALSO BE BROUGHT INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A WIDESPREAD AND
DAMAGING FREEZE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS. DURING THE FREEZE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR MORE THAN
2 HOURS.

&&

$$

14-MROCZKA
Thanks Doc ....

It has been a bad winter storm
Thanks doc.Looking forward to our first real snow on Saturday.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 400 PM EST THURSDAY

* AT 754 AM EST...AUTOMATED STREAM GAGE EQUIPMENT ON THE EAST DITCH
INDICATED RISING WATER LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO YESTERDAYS RAIN. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...FLOOD STAGE COULD BE REACHED BEFORE NOON.
OTHER SMALL STREAMS IN THE AREA ARE ALSO RUNNING HIGH. AN AREAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN MORRIS
COUNTY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.
Thanks Dr. Masters for the updated blog..
Possible new record on Christmas tornados..
Been 42yrs. since that has even come close..
11 confirmed and 14 more yet to be determined..
That will certainly smash the 1969 record of 12..
Thanks again..
IT NEVER SNOWS IN FLORIDA?..............................December 25, 2004: Locations along the Florida Panhandle receive a dusting of snow.[16]
November 21, 2006: An eastward moving weather system produces a very light dusting and snowflakes in central Florida. It is the first snow in November in the state since 1912.[16]
February 3, 2007: Very light snow flurries are reported in the northeastern panhandle, lasting less than an hour.[17]
January 3, 2008: Light snow flurries are reported near Daytona Beach.[18]
January 8–9, 2010: Very light dusting of snow seen in the eastern Jacksonville area. Light snow also fell in parts of central Florida, which briefly accumulated in Ocala and other parts of Marion County. Sleet was widespread and snow was isolated across the Orlando area, Tampa and also in Melbourne.[19] Isolated flurries were even reported as from West Palm Beach to as far south as Kendall and sleet in a few spots in the South Florida metropolitan area for only the second time in record history and first time since 1977.[20]
February 12, 2010: Portions of northwestern Florida experience snowfall totals of around 1 in (25 mm).[21]
February 14, 2010: 0.5 in (12 mm) of snow fell across the northern halves of Escambia, Santa Rosa, Walton and Okaloosa Counties.[22]
December 8, 2010: Snow mixed with rain is reported in western parts of the panhandle, north of Pensacola.[23]
December 26, 2010: A mix of snow and sleet was reported in Jacksonville by NWS.[24]
December 28, 2010: Light snow was reported at Tampa Executive at 1AM and 5AM local time, following a rare freezing fog event around midnight. [25]
January 9, 2011: Sleet is reported in the Pensacola area, as well as other places in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties. There was no accumulation.[3]
It must be embarrassing to be forced to use these silly winter storm names. Such a great site ruined by TWC's marketing fools.
Quoting riblet2000:
It must be embarrassing to be forced to use these silly winter storm names. Such a great site ruined by TWC's marketing fools.






Tell me about it.

Talk about WU's credibility continuing to swirl straight down the toilet....

It was a fun ride while it lasted.

A fun ride, indeed.







Quoting LargoFl:
IT NEVER SNOWS IN FLORIDA?..............................December 25, 2004: Locations along the Florida Panhandle receive a dusting of snow.[16]
November 21, 2006: An eastward moving weather system produces a very light dusting and snowflakes in central Florida. It is the first snow in November in the state since 1912.[16]
February 3, 2007: Very light snow flurries are reported in the northeastern panhandle, lasting less than an hour.[17]
January 3, 2008: Light snow flurries are reported near Daytona Beach.[18]
January 8%u20139, 2010: Very light dusting of snow seen in the eastern Jacksonville area. Light snow also fell in parts of central Florida, which briefly accumulated in Ocala and other parts of Marion County. Sleet was widespread and snow was isolated across the Orlando area, Tampa and also in Melbourne.[19] Isolated flurries were even reported as from West Palm Beach to as far south as Kendall and sleet in a few spots in the South Florida metropolitan area for only the second time in record history and first time since 1977.[20]
February 12, 2010: Portions of northwestern Florida experience snowfall totals of around 1 in (25 mm).[21]
February 14, 2010: 0.5 in (12 mm) of snow fell across the northern halves of Escambia, Santa Rosa, Walton and Okaloosa Counties.[22]
December 8, 2010: Snow mixed with rain is reported in western parts of the panhandle, north of Pensacola.[23]
December 26, 2010: A mix of snow and sleet was reported in Jacksonville by NWS.[24]
December 28, 2010: Light snow was reported at Tampa Executive at 1AM and 5AM local time, following a rare freezing fog event around midnight. [25]
January 9, 2011: Sleet is reported in the Pensacola area, as well as other places in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties. There was no accumulation.[3]


I remember those snow days (in my parts of the panhandle)..
Kinda funny though compared to real snowfall I've experienced in other parts of the country..
But snow none the less..
first tornados and storms...now Flooding...........FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1016 AM CST THU DEC 27 2012


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MISSISSIPPI...

PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA AFFECTING NESHOBA COUNTY
TUSCOLAMETA CREEK AT WALNUT GROVE AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS! THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF
VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY SHOULD
RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND, DON`T
DROWN!

THE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND THAT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR ALL SITES BUT TIBBEE
CREEK...LUXAPALLILA CREEK...NOXUBEE RIVER...AND THE TOMBIGEE RIVER
WHERE 48 HOURS OF FORECAST RAINFALL ARE ROUTINELY USED.


ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAN

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BETWEEN 8 AND
10 PM.

&&

MSC099-282216-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0052.121229T0600Z-121231T0000Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.121229T0600Z.121229T0600Z.121229T1800 Z.NO/
1016 AM CST THU DEC 27 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA
* FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 9:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT BURNSIDE LAKE WATER
PARK.

&&

FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 6AM CREST
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME FRI SAT SUN CREST TIME DATE

UPPER PEARL RIVER
PHILADELPHIA 13 12.2 THU 10 AM 12.7 13.0 12.8 13.0 12 AM 12/29

$$
NASA/JPL Image Of The Day..

Curiosity Rover at Rocknest on Mars
Image Credit: NASA, JPL-Caltech, MSSS, MAHLI




Link
you know..govt is sick..in these hard economic times, people out of work or just getting by, does govt help?..no..but wait..they come up with even MORE ways to spend your money..dont forget..an increase in taxes comes along wityh this ....................A study by the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority recommends a 24-mile route from downtown Clearwater to downtown St. Petersburg by way of the Gateway Area. The proposed system is estimated to cost between $1.5 and $1.7 billion.
Thank you Dr Masters
Quoting pcola57:
perhaps in the spring when all that snow cover melts,it will help those states in the midwest?
..look..it snowed in Texas yesterday..wow..around Dallas i think this is from
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
PLACE. INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL BE LIMITED. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT ANY ORGANIZED THREAT DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY.
Quoting LargoFl:
perhaps in the spring when all that snow cover melts,it will help those states in the midwest?


I sure hope so Largo. Family in Wisconsin said it's been very dry for several years.

BTW the front that came throught Ft Myers yesterday gave me a whopping rainfall total of .09 in :)
Quoting riblet2000:
It must be embarrassing to be forced to use these silly winter storm names. Such a great site ruined by TWC's marketing fools.


Euclid was fun, I'm sure he doesn't HAVE to use it,

He could always just call it the

"December 25-27 North American Blizzard and Tornado Outbreak".

Individuallly the events are:

December 17-22 North American Blizzard
and
Christmas 2012 Tornado Outbreak, possibly to be revised to
December 25-26 North American Tornado Outbreak

Or we could just call it Winter Storm Euclid.
I still don't understand the whole purpose of a select few despising The Weather Channel's naming list. The whole objective of naming winter storms was to get public awareness up and it's not hard to see that it has.

Thanks for the blog, Dr. Masters.
Quoting LargoFl:
perhaps in the spring when all that snow cover melts,it will help those states in the midwest?


Yeah,
Been keeping an eye on the gages along the Mississippi.


Gage height, feet

Most recent instantaneous value: 7.53 12-27-2012 09:45 CST



I wouldn't call this a blizzard. sure there were blizzard warnings out for a huge area, but I struggled to find any observations of blizzard conditions anywhere in those warning areas or otherwise. There were a few places that came close, but I would stick to calling this a winter storm.

The national weather service considers a blizzard a severe winter storm with sustained winds or frequent gusts greater than 35mph, accompanied by heavy falling or blowing snow that frequently reduces visibility below 1/4 mile for 3 or more consecutive hours.
Quoting LargoFl:
..look..it snowed in Texas yesterday..wow..around Dallas i think this is from



Those labradoodles are breeding out of control! They're everywhere, these days.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I still don't understand the whole purpose of a select few despising The Weather Channel's naming list. The whole objective of naming winter storms was to get public awareness up and it's not hard to see that it has.

Thanks for the blog, Dr. Masters.


Because NWS , Accu ,Fox etc do not call them names ...It could be confusing and thats for starts
Quoting washingtonian115:
Thanks doc.Looking forward to our first real snow on Saturday.

Me too!
Quoting riblet2000:
It must be embarrassing to be forced to use these silly winter storm names. Such a great site ruined by TWC's marketing fools.
I don`t understand what is the problem of naming winter storm. I actually pay them more attention now that they are naming them than before.
Quoting VR46L:


Because NWS , Accu ,Fox etc do not call them names ...It could be confusing and thats for starts

That's because all of them, with the exception of the National Weather Service, use the names already; on Twitter, at least. The names don't seem to be causing confusion from what I've heard.
Quoting allancalderini:
I don`t understand what is the problem of naming winter storm. I actually pay them more attention now that they are naming them than before.


Because lad, it's not necessary to name a winter storm. It always happens overland anyways, so we always know there's one going on, plus insurance reasons, etc.
Quoting VR46L:


Because NWS , Accu ,Fox etc do not call them names ...It could be confusing and thats for starts



Its obvious its the same storm, there aren't conflicting names or anything.
Quoting VR46L:


Because NWS , Accu ,Fox etc do not call them names ...It could be confusing and thats for starts


I agree VR46L..
If the National Weather Service didn't sign on to the idea, then they didn't think it was a good idea..
Pretty simple really..
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Its obvious its the same storm, there aren't conflicting names or anything.

I will be in ATl monday to see my Bayou Bengals play. How's the weather forcast?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's because all of them, with the exception of the National Weather Service, use the names already; on Twitter, at least. The names don't seem to be causing confusion from what I've heard.


Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Its obvious its the same storm, there aren't conflicting names or anything.



Wait until Insurance companies put a named winter storm premiun on homeowners insurance but I guess young Teenage men dont think about that either...
Heavy rain and high winds could cause major damage here.
Quoting VR46L:





Wait until Insurance companies put a named winter storm premiun on homeowners insurance but I guess young Teenage men dont think about that either...







No.

They don't.






Quoting VR46L:





Wait until Insurance companies put a named winter storm premiun on homeowners insurance but I guess young Teenage men dont think about that either...


Wait until energy companies put a named winter storm surcharge on people's bill, Like they did with Katrina in Louisiana, and then leave it on there forever.
Wukong looking very week.
I'm reposting this CO2 graph posted by pcola57 at the end of the last blog, because I think it's quite important. It shows an annual rise of 2.6 ppm, which is the second highest on record.

The record is held by 1998, when the annual rise was 2.93 ppm. 1998 was the year of the record breaking El Nino, and SSTs in the Pacific were spectacularly high that year. SSTs were also well above average in the Indian Ocean and Atlantic.

The oceans are the main sink for man made CO2. However, they are also a source of CO2. Cold water absorbs CO2, while warm water outgasses it, so most of the absorption of man made CO2 will be in northern and southern temperate and polar regions.

The very warm oceans of 1998 meant that less CO2 was taken up, and more outgassed, but that's probably only a partial explanation. The EL Nino of 1998 caused very dry conditions in the rainforests of SE Asia, particularly in Indonesia.

They clear the forest for palm oil plantations in Indonesia by burning it. In 1998, those fires raged out of control for months because of the exceptionally dry conditions. It's believed that this also contributed to the CO2 spike that year.

But, I'm lost for an explanation for the spike in this graph. Annual CO2 rises have been climbing in the 14 years since 1998, so it's a much less dramatic spike than 1998. But, worrying, nevertheless.


Quoting RTSplayer:


Wait until energy companies put a named winter storm surcharge on people's bill, Like they did with Katrina in Louisiana, and then leave it on there forever.
To me, Katrina was a nightmare of indescribable proportions..I still get sick to my stomach when I see the pics.
Quoting nymore:
This is such a great post..Off topic or not..:)
I just dont understand you folks..so what if TWC names storms..who cares..dont cost me anything
11 riblet2000: It must be embarrassing to be forced to use these silly winter storm names.

As silly as Snowtober, Snowpocalypse, Snowmageddon?
Folks are gonna name memorable storms anyway; especially now that there's social media meme-competition, known primarily for being S T U P I D for the sake of being stupid.

NWS won't do it, so might as well follow the lead of another broadly recognized organization.
Like Shakespeare said: A winter storm by any other name still freezes as deep.
Looking ahead to next week, if the ECMWF is to believed, it looks like Texas could be in for some major drought relief. The model stalls a 5h cut-off low along the SWUS/Mexico border from Tuesday all the way to Friday, which puts Texas in a very favorable location for rain during the entire period. Looks like it could be a very wet start to the year here!



ECMWF 00Z @ 120 hours, or 00Z Tuesday.



ECMWF 00Z @ 192 hours, or 00Z Friday. Same cut-off is still in nearly the same place.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Looking ahead to next week, if the ECMWF is to believed, it looks like Texas could be in for some major drought relief. The model stalls a 5h cut-off low along the SWUS/Mexico border from Tuesday all the way to Friday, which puts Texas in a very favorable location for rain during the entire period. Looks like it could be a very wet start to the year here!



ECMWF 00Z @ 120 hours, or 00Z Tuesday.



ECMWF 00Z @ 192 hours, or 00Z Friday. Same cut-off is still in nearly the same place.



The ridge developing over the west in both models favors a cut-off underneath (south) of it. And those usually end up being slow to come east.

Let's go slow Euro!
Quoting VR46L:





Wait until Insurance companies put a named winter storm premiun on homeowners insurance but I guess young Teenage men dont think about that either...


They cant its not official.
Or else they would (discretely) hire people to name things
Quoting TomballTXPride:







No.

They don't.








Na how could they when I was 15 the last thing I thought about was insurance LOL

Have a good Christmas Gal?


Quoting RTSplayer:


Wait until energy companies put a named winter storm surcharge on people's bill, Like they did with Katrina in Louisiana, and then leave it on there forever.


Now thats an excellent Point
Quoting riblet2000:
It must be embarrassing to be forced to use these silly winter storm names. Such a great site ruined by TWC's marketing fools.
Are we forced.....? How can that be..I don't get the "forced" title.. Not against you riblet, but ....??
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Are we forced.....? How can that be..I don't get the "forced" title.. Not against you riblet, but ....??


I have yet to refer to them as anything but winter storms
It must suck being a weather company then, if you can't do anything the government doesn't do.

If the NWS doesn't do it, it is apparently terrible.
Quoting VR46L:


I have yet to refer to them as anything but winter storms
Me too
I hate not being able to know what to expect for 2013's tornado season. In regards to hurricanes, a busy pre-season in the tropics is typically a sign of a busy season overall. But with tornadoes, a big outbreak before March/April means nothing.

Anyways, I have bad news.

NWS Mobile ‏@NWSMobile
Unfortunately..we received word this morning from the Butler Co. EMA that there was 1 fatality in the Christmas storms.
Quoting pcola57:


I agree VR46L..
If the National Weather Service didn't sign on to the idea, then they didn't think it was a good idea..
Pretty simple really..
I think the problem that most have in here is that the Weather channel come with the idea ,or would you people still be against if the NWS have come with the idea first?
I can't help but wonder why so many of those who repeatedly chastise TWC for naming winter storms don't seem bothered in the least by TWC's "exclusive" TOR:CON index. After all, many/most of the same tired arguments against naming storms can be leveled at TOR:CON: it's something concocted by a private sector business and not the government; it's not endorsed by the NWS; it's not used widely by TWC's competitors; it could cause confusion among the public; the storms they deal with (winter storms and tornadoes, respectively) are far more difficult to forecast than a hurricane; it's arrogant; it's self-serving; it's presumptuous; and so on. It seems to me, then, that there's either a lack of critical thinking skills being displayed by many here, or (more likely) some people are just so upset with Dr. Masters endorsing the science behind AGW that they will fervently nit-pick the smallest of reasons to hate--and manufacture reasons when they can't find any real ones.

IMO, 'tis a silly waste of time...
This is to far out to put much faith in, but the GFS has a major pattern shift..I am going to do some checking to see if this is a real possibility....Link
Im still liking the idea...

Quoting allancalderini:
I think the problem that most have in here is that the Weather channel come with the idea ,or would you people still be against if the NWS have come with the idea first?


If it was a NWS named storm I would not have any issue with the naming as they are the authority who issue warnings and advisories . and all private companies would call it the same
So, did winter storm Euclid cause our tornadoes down here in Alabama, or was it just snow in the north? That's just one reason why naming winter storms is silly. The same storm system causes way different weather depending on where you live. No one down here thinks Euclid is anything but a guy who had something to do with mathematics.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I can't help but wonder why so many of those who repeatedly chastise TWC for naming winter storms don't seem bothered in the least by TWC's "exclusive" TOR:CON index. After all, many/most of the same tired arguments against naming storms can be leveled at TOR:CON: it's something concocted by a private sector business and not the government; it's not endorsed by the NWS; it's not used widely by TWC's competitors; it could cause confusion among the public; the storms they deal with (winter storms and tornadoes, respectively) are far more difficult to forecast than a hurricane; it's arrogant; it's self-serving; it's presumptuous; and so on. It seems to me, then, that there's either a lack of critical thinking skills being displayed by many here, or (more likely) some people are just so upset with Dr. Masters endorsing the science behind AGW that they will fervently nit-pick the smallest of reasons to hate--and manufacture reasons when they can't find any real ones.

IMO, 'tis a silly waste of time...


What's a TOR:CON index?
;)
wow Its crazy here in southern new brunswick i cant see a thing outside we have already gotten 4 inches in the last 2 hours.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I can't help but wonder why so many of those who repeatedly chastise TWC for naming winter storms don't seem bothered in the least by TWC's "exclusive" TOR:CON index. After all, many/most of the same tired arguments against naming storms can be leveled at TOR:CON: it's something concocted by a private sector business and not the government; it's not endorsed by the NWS; it's not used widely by TWC's competitors; it could cause confusion among the public; the storms they deal with (winter storms and tornadoes, respectively) are far more difficult to forecast than a hurricane; it's arrogant; it's self-serving; it's presumptuous; and so on. It seems to me, then, that there's either a lack of critical thinking skills being displayed by many here, or (more likely) some people are just so upset with Dr. Masters endorsing the science behind AGW that they will fervently nit-pick the smallest of reasons to hate--and manufacture reasons when they can't find any real ones.

IMO, 'tis a silly waste of time...
Nea.. or X... I guess it's because we can... Freedom of speech...
Quoting Neapolitan:
I can't help but wonder why so many of those who repeatedly chastise TWC for naming winter storms don't seem bothered in the least by TWC's "exclusive" TOR:CON index. After all, many/most of the same tired arguments against naming storms can be leveled at TOR:CON: it's something concocted by a private sector business and not the government; it's not endorsed by the NWS; it's not used widely by TWC's competitors; it could cause confusion among the public; the storms they deal with (winter storms and tornadoes, respectively) are far more difficult to forecast than a hurricane; it's arrogant; it's self-serving; it's presumptuous; and so on. It seems to me, then, that there's either a lack of critical thinking skills being displayed by many here, or (more likely) some people are just so upset with Dr. Masters endorsing the science behind AGW that they will fervently nit-pick the smallest of reasons to hate--and manufacture reasons when they can't find any real ones.

IMO, 'tis a silly waste of time...
Nea.I am on vacation.... I have lot's of time to waste until January 2nd, but thanks for your thoughts
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Looking ahead to next week, if the ECMWF is to believed, it looks like Texas could be in for some major drought relief. The model stalls a 5h cut-off low along the SWUS/Mexico border from Tuesday all the way to Friday, which puts Texas in a very favorable location for rain during the entire period. Looks like it could be a very wet start to the year here!



ECMWF 00Z @ 120 hours, or 00Z Tuesday.



ECMWF 00Z @ 192 hours, or 00Z Friday. Same cut-off is still in nearly the same place.


Hope that plays out..
Texas really needs it..
Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters


I storm chased on Christmas day (couldn't see any family until January anyway) with a couple of partners of mine, we started Christmas eve in Norman, Oklahoma (where I live), picked my friend Connor up in Dallas, drove all night to Leesville, Louisiana. We initially started west towards the storms coming out of Texas, but quickly realized the big tornado producers would fire to our east as they came in off the Gulf. We intercepted our first tornadic storm in Slidell, La. We were on I-12 when we punched through the core of the storm. On the other side, we came across a lifting tornado, mangled signs, cars blown off the road, and insulation strewn across the interstate. We continued east. We then turned North on I-59 headed towards Mcneil, Mississippi with a tornadic supercell to our west. We stopped a couple miles SW of Mcneil to see a developing tornado, but due to the trees and road network, we quickly lost sight of it.

After that close call, we dropped back south towards Bay of Saint Louis, intercepting one more circulation before the sun began to set.

I find it amazing that there were no tornado deaths on Christmas. But, to be fair, there was ample warning that this system would be a major tornado producer. That warning, intense wording in the outlooks by the SPC, the PDS tornado watch, and great warning lead times were a big part in saving lives. Kudos to the men and women responsible for that.

Overall, it was a great chase trip with a couple of friends. We stopped in Shreveport on the way back to grab a couple of beers at one of the bars, then arrived back in Dallas to a couple inches of snow early the next morning.

This is our route, and I look to have some video up later on this week!

(ignore the yellow numbers and sleep icons, as those were automatically inserted by the map program)

Quoting Neapolitan:
I can't help but wonder why so many of those who repeatedly chastise TWC for naming winter storms don't seem bothered in the least by TWC's "exclusive" TOR:CON index. After all, many/most of the same tired arguments against naming storms can be leveled at TOR:CON: it's something concocted by a private sector business and not the government; it's not endorsed by the NWS; it's not used widely by TWC's competitors; it could cause confusion among the public; the storms they deal with (winter storms and tornadoes, respectively) are far more difficult to forecast than a hurricane; it's arrogant; it's self-serving; it's presumptuous; and so on. It seems to me, then, that there's either a lack of critical thinking skills being displayed by many here, or (more likely) some people are just so upset with Dr. Masters endorsing the science behind AGW that they will fervently nit-pick the smallest of reasons to hate--and manufacture reasons when they can't find any real ones.

IMO, 'tis a silly waste of time...


Ok I'm fairly sure its not AGW. That much I'll say
While damage surveying is still ongoing, it appears the longest-lived tornado during the Christmas Day outbreak will be the Mcneil tornado, which was rated an EF3. The NWS has assessed its path length at 31 miles, but they are still not finished.

This is the tornado I mentioned being on the ground for well over an hour.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
112 PM EST THU DEC 27 2012

...A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA BIG BEND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

FLZ019-028-029-034-281400-
/O.UPG.KTAE.FZ.A.0006.121228T0700Z-121228T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.FZ.W.0007.121228T0900Z-121228T1400Z/
MADISON-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISON...GREENVILLE...PERRY...MIDWAY...
MAYO...CROSS CITY
112 PM EST THU DEC 27 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY. THE
FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* MINIMUM TEMPERATURE...30 TO 32 DEGREES.

* DURATION...2 TO 3 HOURS BELOW FREEZING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
Quoting allancalderini:
I think the problem that most have in here is that the Weather channel come with the idea ,or would you people still be against if the NWS have come with the idea first?


I'm ok with the Weather Channel doing whatever they want..
It was their idea so more power to them..
However that said,Most of what I see posted here are data products from NWS...
The Weather Channel doesn't even own a single a single sattelite..
I'm not anti Weather Channel..
But I am pro NWS..
They have a proven and outstanding record all things considered..
I trust them..
The Weather Channel would not be in existence without all the tech and data products that the gov./NWS,NOAA,ect brings us..
They use that data to produce a commercial entity..
JMO of course..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
While damage surveying is still ongoing, it appears the longest-lived tornado during the Christmas Day outbreak will be the Mcneil tornado, which was rated an EF3. The NWS has assessed its path length at 31 miles, but they are still not finished.

This is the tornado I mentioned being on the ground for well over an hour.



If the path is found to be 31 miles, it likely would have only been on the ground for maybe 35 minutes at best, as the storm motions were nearing 60mph that day.

However, a longer path obviously means longer lived tornado.
Love that pic of 'Teasel in snow':) Saw a small flock of bluebirds here in Eastern PA this AM. They were checking out the Ilex verticillata, (winterberry). I think they were hungry!
Wettest year since records began in England


Link


The usual suspects on the comments section, telling us that AGW is a hoax.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I can't help but wonder why so many of those who repeatedly chastise TWC for naming winter storms don't seem bothered in the least by TWC's "exclusive" TOR:CON index. After all, many/most of the same tired arguments against naming storms can be leveled at TOR:CON: it's something concocted by a private sector business and not the government; it's not endorsed by the NWS; it's not used widely by TWC's competitors; it could cause confusion among the public; the storms they deal with (winter storms and tornadoes, respectively) are far more difficult to forecast than a hurricane; it's arrogant; it's self-serving; it's presumptuous; and so on. It seems to me, then, that there's either a lack of critical thinking skills being displayed by many here, or (more likely) some people are just so upset with Dr. Masters endorsing the science behind AGW that they will fervently nit-pick the smallest of reasons to hate--and manufacture reasons when they can't find any real ones.

IMO, 'tis a silly waste of time...


That is the most irrational arguement I have heard yet.... to do with AGW .You Kidding ???????

More to do with what the official Government agency is calling them ... Winter storms ..

Original idea ?? No ..a smaller Company already did

Could be a fund raiser if the NWS did it sponsor a storm ?instead its a marketing initiative by a private company instead of the european model which the money is pumped back into educating young mets

and of Course the insurance specture hangs over it ...

AGW got nothing to do with it . It probally is why you back it ......
oh boy gonna be cold tomorrow morning by me...brrrr
cold and snowy by Chicago....................
Quoting LargoFl:
oh boy gonna be cold tomorrow morning by me...brrrr


Ha-Ha ...I got below freezing last night! Loved it. Was so crisp and clear. Woke up this morning to overcast, cool weather ..it's 47 right now.

Finally feels a bit like winter

I'm not laughing about the orange freeze though ...sorry about that


This is what im dealing with ... A couple more cms and then a change over to ice pellets and then rain... My friend already flipped her car she is fine but the roads are bad. Also ill be out with my kestrel hoping to get some 100kmh winds tonigh!
Quoting txjac:


Ha-Ha ...I got below freezing last night! Loved it. Was so crisp and clear. Woke up this morning to overcast, cool weather ..it's 47 right now.

Finally feels a bit like winter
LOL try walking the dogs at 4am in the morning in that LOL..man i hate cold temps..
Quoting VR46L:


That is the most irrational arguement I have heard yet.... to do with AGW .You Kidding ???????

More to do with what the official Government agency is calling them ... Winter storms ..

Original idea ?? No ..a smaller Company already did

Could be a fund raiser if the NWS did it sponsor a storm ?instead its a marketing initiative by a private company instead of the european model which the money is pumped back into educating young mets

and of Course the insurance specture hangs over it ...

AGW got nothing to do with it . It probally is why you back it ......
So you've no response to my comment about the bewildering absence of hatred for TWC's TOR:CON index, an institution very much on a par with their naming of winter storms?
ok weather nuts..question...what are "sneaker waters"????....................................... .........THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SNEAKER WATERS FRIDAY MORNING AS
LARGE LONG PERIOD WAVES BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS.

HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
BREAKERS LIKELY APPROACHING 22 FEET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
Ill be stranded at dads so ill be using my phone because he has no internet. Cant wait for the big storm on Sunday :)
Quoting LargoFl:
LOL try walking the dogs at 4am in the morning in that LOL..man i hate cold temps..


Did walk my dog in that and she loves it. It snowed here a couple years back and she totally went wild ...trying to bite all the flakes as they fell.
Quoting VR46L:


That is the most irrational arguement I have heard yet.... to do with AGW .You Kidding ???????

More to do with what the official Government agency is calling them ... Winter storms ..

Original idea ?? No ..a smaller Company already did

Could be a fund raiser if the NWS did it sponsor a storm ?instead its a marketing initiative by a private company instead of the european model which the money is pumped back into educating young mets

and of Course the insurance specture hangs over it ...

AGW got nothing to do with it . It probally is why you back it ......
VR46L....He is arguing for the sake of arguing...Some people were born that way.
Quoting Neapolitan:
So you've no response to my comment about the bewildering absence of hatred for TWC's TOR:CON index, an institution very much on a par with their naming of winter storms?


Dr. Greg Forbes who officially puts out the torcon list has proven his expertise in severe weather on air in front of millions of viewers..whoever is "naming" the winter storms we will never know..for all we know it could be some technician in a control room in GA who has to cover a shift
ok had to look that one up..those west coast people have a language all their own huh...........rogue or sneaker waves
Extreme rogue waves can sink ships, even supertankers, (see the links at the bottom of the page).
Many people don't realize that smaller and mid-size rogue waves occur regularly along the coast. People sightseeing on shore which has relatively dry sand can be hit by a wave that seems to come out of nowhere, a sleeper or sneaker wave.

People who thought they were safely up on a jetty or low cliff, far enough away from where the waves were breaking, can be splashed and thoroughly soaked, or even swept off the cliff and slammed into it. Plus, jettys and rocky areas are very slippery and even a small wave can cause you to go unexpectedly swimming.

People climbing up on big logs or downed trees which seem high and dry can find themselves in the water, possibly even under the log, when a sneaker wave washes well up on to shore and floats the log. People hanging out near a big log can find it suddenly floating and ramming into them.
Quoting Neapolitan:
So you've no response to my comment about the bewildering absence of hatred for TWC's TOR:CON index, an institution very much on a par with their naming of winter storms?



I actually find that quite funny , reminds me of another :con.... but wont get into that.....
Quoting ncstorm:


Dr. Greg Forbes who officially puts out the torcon list has proven his expertise in severe weather on air in front of millions of viewers..whoever is "naming" the winter storms we will never know..for all we know it could be some technician in a control room in GA who has to cover a shift
Or Monique at the Collier county Hooters..Who knows
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
VR46L....He is arguing for the sake of arguing...Some people were born that way.


I know I shouldnt allow myself to be baited but fell for it ...
Quoting LargoFl:
ok had to look that one up..those west coast people have a language all their own huh...........rogue or sneaker waves
Extreme rogue waves can sink ships, even supertankers, (see the links at the bottom of the page).
Many people don't realize that smaller and mid-size rogue waves occur regularly along the coast. People sightseeing on shore which has relatively dry sand can be hit by a wave that seems to come out of nowhere, a sleeper or sneaker wave.

People who thought they were safely up on a jetty or low cliff, far enough away from where the waves were breaking, can be splashed and thoroughly soaked, or even swept off the cliff and slammed into it. Plus, jettys and rocky areas are very slippery and even a small wave can cause you to go unexpectedly swimming.

People climbing up on big logs or downed trees which seem high and dry can find themselves in the water, possibly even under the log, when a sneaker wave washes well up on to shore and floats the log. People hanging out near a big log can find it suddenly floating and ramming into them.
I think it is what killed the kids and dad trying to save a dog a couple weeks back... not sure though
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
VR46L....He is arguing for the sake of arguing...Some people were born that way.


He is certainly not the only one :)) I see several here, every day.
I was going back through my radar images and remembering how much I miss Spring.

GR2Analyst view of the Hilton-Guthrie EF5 tornado on may 24, 2011.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I was going back through my radar images and remembering how much I miss Spring.

GR2Analyst view of the Hilton-Guthrie EF5 tornado on may 24, 2011.

That looks amazing on the radar.
Isn't TOR:CON just a copycat of the Severe Weather Prediction Center, or whatever they are called, in Norman Ok.?

And if it is, why do we need TOR:CON?

Quoting ncstorm:


Dr. Greg Forbes who officially puts out the torcon list has proven his expertise in severe weather on air in front of millions of viewers..whoever is "naming" the winter storms we will never know..for all we know it could be some technician in a control room in GA who has to cover a shift

Tom Nizol is the one who suggested naming winter storm. He has his B.S. degree in Meteorology and has received many awards from the American Meteorological Society, National Weather Association, National Weather Service, US Department of Commerce, and many more. I'm sure he's credible enough.
Regarding the naming of winter storms:) Guess Ole Man Winter now has got a lot of names!!! And just maybe he will have children for future generations.
NWS Mobile





A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE WILL BE NO INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TO CREATE A SMALL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
That looks amazing on the radar.

Even more amazing on camera.



Quoting ihave27windows:
Isn't TOR:CON just a copycat of the Severe Weather Prediction Center, or whatever they are called, in Norman Ok.?

And if it is, why do we need TOR:CON?


TOR:CON is an index Dr. Forbes made up himself and it has no relation with the Storm Prediction Center. He analyzes his own data to make his own forecasts.
105. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
I can't help but wonder why so many of those who repeatedly chastise TWC for naming winter storms don't seem bothered in the least by TWC's "exclusive" TOR:CON index. After all, many/most of the same tired arguments against naming storms can be leveled at TOR:CON: it's something concocted by a private sector business and not the government; it's not endorsed by the NWS; it's not used widely by TWC's competitors; it could cause confusion among the public; the storms they deal with (winter storms and tornadoes, respectively) are far more difficult to forecast than a hurricane; it's arrogant; it's self-serving; it's presumptuous; and so on. It seems to me, then, that there's either a lack of critical thinking skills being displayed by many here, or (more likely) some people are just so upset with Dr. Masters endorsing the science behind AGW that they will fervently nit-pick the smallest of reasons to hate--and manufacture reasons when they can't find any real ones.

IMO, 'tis a silly waste of time...





BS
"TOR:CON is an index Dr. Forbes made up himself and it has no relation with the Storm Prediction Center. He analyzes his own data to make his own forecasts."

Thank you!
Quoting Neapolitan:
I can't help but wonder why so many of those who repeatedly chastise TWC for naming winter storms don't seem bothered in the least by TWC's "exclusive" TOR:CON index. After all, many/most of the same tired arguments against naming storms can be leveled at TOR:CON: it's something concocted by a private sector business and not the government; it's not endorsed by the NWS; it's not used widely by TWC's competitors; it could cause confusion among the public; the storms they deal with (winter storms and tornadoes, respectively) are far more difficult to forecast than a hurricane; it's arrogant; it's self-serving; it's presumptuous; and so on. It seems to me, then, that there's either a lack of critical thinking skills being displayed by many here, or (more likely) some people are just so upset with Dr. Masters endorsing the science behind AGW that they will fervently nit-pick the smallest of reasons to hate--and manufacture reasons when they can't find any real ones.

IMO, 'tis a silly waste of time...



Agree ++++

Arguing about TWC naming winter storms is akin to arguing about Cheerios commercials. It's marketing, get used to it. In the case of TWC, their marketing has a side effect of raising awareness of dangerous weather. Yes, they want people to tune in and watch. That's why they exist as a company. If you don't like the commercial, don't buy (or watch) the product. Simple as that.
naming wintre storm was bad idea
Quoting TomballTXPride:






Tell me about it.

Talk about WU's credibility continuing to swirl straight down the toilet....

It was a fun ride while it lasted.

A fun ride, indeed.







54 and misting here in SE TX, moisture increasing for tomm's rain event, hopefully more than the 0.05" I received Christmas Day.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I can't help but wonder why so many of those who repeatedly chastise TWC for naming winter storms don't seem bothered in the least by TWC's "exclusive" TOR:CON index. After all, many/most of the same tired arguments against naming storms can be leveled at TOR:CON: it's something concocted by a private sector business and not the government; it's not endorsed by the NWS; it's not used widely by TWC's competitors; it could cause confusion among the public; the storms they deal with (winter storms and tornadoes, respectively) are far more difficult to forecast than a hurricane; it's arrogant; it's self-serving; it's presumptuous; and so on. It seems to me, then, that there's either a lack of critical thinking skills being displayed by many here, or (more likely) some people are just so upset with Dr. Masters endorsing the science behind AGW that they will fervently nit-pick the smallest of reasons to hate--and manufacture reasons when they can't find any real ones.

IMO, 'tis a silly waste of time...


it's arrogant; it's self-serving; it's presumptuous;

These comments sound like someone on this blog.....
We need help folks, it's getting bad....in winter

Galveston enacts Stage Two Drought Contingency plan

GALVESTON – As a result of a Texas Commission on Environmental Quality mandate, the City of Galveston will enact Stage Two of its Drought Contingency Plan this Friday, December 28th.
u texans r never happy with any rain u get...,
Quoting RitaEvac:
54 and misting here in SE TX, moisture increasing for tomm's rain event, hopefully more than the 0.05" I received Christmas Day.
overhype.how'd that world ending turn out for ya????
Quoting RitaEvac:
We need help folks, it's getting bad....in winter

Galveston enacts Stage Two Drought Contingency plan

GALVESTON – As a result of a Texas Commission on Environmental Quality mandate, the City of Galveston will enact Stage Two of its Drought Contingency Plan this Friday, December 28th.
Quoting RitaEvac:
We need help folks, it's getting bad....in winter

Galveston enacts Stage Two Drought Contingency plan

GALVESTON – As a result of a Texas Commission on Environmental Quality mandate, the City of Galveston will enact Stage Two of its Drought Contingency Plan this Friday, December 28th.
they need to build way more water retention ponds and lakes there..stormwater runoff going into the sewers etc doesnt help you at all, my town is doubling the size of lakes and ponds, been doing that for a long time now, capturing the storm water..your state needs to do that bigtime rita
Quoting stormchaser43:
u texans r never happy with any rain u get...,



Damn Straight

"DixieStorm Doom defcon 3" for Friday...


I kinda like a dat un.


I'm gonna use it me tinks.





Quoting LargoFl:
they need to build way more water retention ponds and lakes there..stormwater runoff going into the sewers etc doesnt help you at all, my town is doubling the size of lakes and ponds, been doing that for a long time now, capturing the storm water..your state needs to do that bigtime rita


We have retention ponds and lakes, they're all dried up
Quoting JustPlantIt:
I think it is what killed the kids and dad trying to save a dog a couple weeks back... not sure though
yeah just by reading this, sure must be scary to get caught in one huh
Quoting stormchaser43:
u texans r never happy with any rain u get...,


I'm a Texan, and I am always happy, regardless...=D
1 of da few
Quoting ihave27windows:


I'm a Texan, and I am always happy, regardless...=D
Quoting RitaEvac:


We have retention ponds and lakes, they're all dried up
then get them to plant more tree's..im not joking..tree's release moisture thru their leaves th atthey pull up from underground..texas needs to plant millions of them..but i know..bring that up at a city hall meeting and get laughed out of the room..NOT in my city thou..they take it seriously here....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tom Nizol is the one who suggested naming winter storm. He has his B.S. degree in Meteorology and has received many awards from the American Meteorological Society, National Weather Association, National Weather Service, US Department of Commerce, and many more. I'm sure he's credible enough.

American Meteorological Society - Francis Reichelderfer Award - 1993 National Weather Association - Group Operational Achievement Award - 1996 National Weather Association - Research Achievement Award - 1990 U.S. Dept. of Commerce Silver Medal - 2010 U.S. Dept. of Commerce Bronze Medal - 2002 National Weather Service - National Diversity /EEO award - 2007 National Weather Service - National Aviation Program Award - 1995

Yup, just some guy coming up with this idea. For those interested in doing something other than complaining about TWC, here's what Tom Niziol posted in regards to the idea: Link. Here he mentions why they are taking the initiative (NWS doesn't name storms, NHC does, and NHC doesn't cover anything that isn't a TS).

I really don't see what all the fuss is about, but to each their own. I will say that in the event there are two major winter storms in the country saying "Winter Storm" as opposed to whatever trivial name TWC gives it is much much more confusing. Many people I've talked to think that it is less confusing when a "major" storm has a name, and as was pointed out before Euclid is actually a lot less silly than snowpocalypse.
Quoting LargoFl:
then get them to plant more tree's..im not joking..tree's release moisture thru their leaves they they pull up from underground..texas needs to plant millions of them..but i know..bring that up at a city hall meeting and get laughed out of the room..NOT in my city thou..they take it seriously here....


I know, but the trees are dying especially the pines. We can plant all we want, if it don't rain they die. I know sounds like doom and negativity but it's the truth
do tree's..make rain??........................................

General note on trees

our consumption of water is ever increasing and our drinkable water supply is shrinking because of polution ,and the production of potable water is less all the time because of deforestation.

the forrests make most of the water that we can drink or use for plant growth(sweet water)

some is condensed from the sea but that reaches only the coastel aereas .

the bulk however,comes from the forests who feed the rivers and keep them running all year round,with their excess subteranean water,and from the rainfall which also comes from the trees .the trees condense water from the atmosphere in the night with the surfaces of the leaves,this feeds the rivers after the tree has had enough the excess moves on to subteranean water,

on the other hand in the day water that is brought up by the roots and that is within the foilage evaporate and creates clouds the dust from the leaves seeds the clouds and rain is the results
this process is called precipitation

If we kill all the trees,we kill the rivers .we kill the rain. we kill us.
the trees also absorb the heat in the day and heat up the place in the night ,so they keep the temperature confertable to live in.

DESERTIFICATION
desertification is also a result of bad agricultural methods and deforrestation
in the dessert the nights are freezing cold and during the days you burn up

the saharaa is growing by 7 kilometres every day.
two major desserts in northern china are growing together making one giant dessert and,causing dust storms so making thousands of people refugeese

the trees evaporate a mist which ,which protects us from the strong rays of the sun .

in the days of the dinasaurs this planet was under an aquiferus manta ,a mist that covered the entire earth ,and there were no desserts .

Count how many there are today,and all of them are as a result of mans actions.
the sahara used to be forrests
arabia ,irak ,iran used to be fertile lands in biblical times

Ghengas Kahn burned all the forrests here and filled the well with water and so turning vast lands into dessert.

Modern agriculture today is doing the same as ghengas kahn but in much bigger territories.

these are some of the reasons why trees are important.

so to counter act these fatal processes we must reforrest and at the same time reduce our carbon emissions.
most governments are aware of these and many first world countries now include programs to reduce their carbon emissions.

the world bank pays large subsidies for farmers to plant trees especially a tree called Pawlomia because it is one of the better ones that capture carbon.

In the sierras in Mexico in Guerrero we are planting Pawlonia to capture carbon and the World bank gives large subsidies for that,

also coffee is the most recomended bush because it lives beneath the trees ,and forrests are created intead of destroyed for agricultural reasons.


.



Quoting LargoFl:
yeah just by reading this, sure must be scary to get caught in one huh
I don't know... but my heart was with them as I would have tried to save my best friend too, and I have two big dogs. And if I remember correctly, the dog survived.
In areas as diverse as climate change, nuclear waste disposal, endangered species and biodiversity, forest management, air and water pollution, and agricultural biotechnology, the growth of considerable bodies of scientific knowledge, created especially to resolve political dispute and enable effective decision making, has often been accompanied instead by growing political controversy and gridlock.

Science typically lies at the center of the debate, where those who advocate some line of action are likely to claim a scientific justification for their position, while those opposing the action will either invoke scientific uncertainty or competing scientific results to support their opposition.

Quoting ihave27windows:
"TOR:CON is an index Dr. Forbes made up himself and it has no relation with the Storm Prediction Center. He analyzes his own data to make his own forecasts."

Thank you!


Last Spring on a notable severe risk day, I noticed Greg Forbes extended a risk area more SW into OK a day or so before SPC did, and he turned out to be right on, so I pay attention to him. What correlation I've discovered between Tor:Con and SPC risk numbers goes something like... Tor:con reflects risk within 50 miles where SPC risk reflects a threat within 25 miles of a point.

104. TropicalAnalystwx13 7:03 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
"Even more amazing on camera."
Also two high-end (190 mph) EF4s crossed Oklahoma that day. Not much noticed by most, as was two days after Joplin and the death toll in OK was low. The U.S. can do without another Spring severe season like 2011 for a while. A long while.
:)
392.92ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for November 2012

co2now.org

Quoting stormchaser43:
overhype.how'd that world ending turn out for ya????
Like that comment. World ending or was it perhaps the beginning to the worlds end??? Hmmmmm. Now that's a thought for people!
Since I know everyone here LOVES TWC:





On another note, I'm finally over my Christmas flu enough to type. :D
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel
MT @EricFisherTWC: Looking back through the numbers, it appears the 65% snow cover right now across the lower 48 is > ANY point last winter.
Forests help to make sure we get rain. Trees absorb a lot of water from the soil for nourishment. Later, when the sun shines on the trees, water is released from the leaves and absorbed back into the atmosphere – just like the water is absorbed from our bathing suits. When the sun’s energy removes water from the earth’s surface, the water collects into clouds, and when the clouds are heavy with water they release rain back to the earth.
Yes they help... condensation on leaves. Rain forrest in S. America being logged. Long story... condensation and evaperation. Evolutionary effect that maintains our ecosystems. If we destroy that with chemicals or logging we will kill all our natural defense.
Quoting LargoFl:
do tree's..make rain??........................................

General note on trees

our consumption of water is ever increasing and our drinkable water supply is shrinking because of polution ,and the production of potable water is less all the time because of deforestation.

the forrests make most of the water that we can drink or use for plant growth(sweet water)

some is condensed from the sea but that reaches only the coastel aereas .

the bulk however,comes from the forests who feed the rivers and keep them running all year round,with their excess subteranean water,and from the rainfall which also comes from the trees .the trees condense water from the atmosphere in the night with the surfaces of the leaves,this feeds the rivers after the tree has had enough the excess moves on to subteranean water,

on the other hand in the day water that is brought up by the roots and that is within the foilage evaporate and creates clouds the dust from the leaves seeds the clouds and rain is the results
this process is called precipitation

If we kill all the trees,we kill the rivers .we kill the rain. we kill us.
the trees also absorb the heat in the day and heat up the place in the night ,so they keep the temperature confertable to live in.

DESERTIFICATION
desertification is also a result of bad agricultural methods and deforrestation
in the dessert the nights are freezing cold and during the days you burn up

the saharaa is growing by 7 kilometres every day.
two major desserts in northern china are growing together making one giant dessert and,causing dust storms so making thousands of people refugeese

the trees evaporate a mist which ,which protects us from the strong rays of the sun .

in the days of the dinasaurs this planet was under an aquiferus manta ,a mist that covered the entire earth ,and there were no desserts .

Count how many there are today,and all of them are as a result of mans actions.
the sahara used to be forrests
arabia ,irak ,iran used to be fertile lands in biblical times

Ghengas Kahn burned all the forrests here and filled the well with water and so turning vast lands into dessert.

Modern agriculture today is doing the same as ghengas kahn but in much bigger territories.

these are some of the reasons why trees are important.

so to counter act these fatal processes we must reforrest and at the same time reduce our carbon emissions.
most governments are aware of these and many first world countries now include programs to reduce their carbon emissions.

the world bank pays large subsidies for farmers to plant trees especially a tree called Pawlomia because it is one of the better ones that capture carbon.

In the sierras in Mexico in Guerrero we are planting Pawlonia to capture carbon and the World bank gives large subsidies for that,

also coffee is the most recomended bush because it lives beneath the trees ,and forrests are created intead of destroyed for agricultural reasons.


.



Quoting RitaEvac:
We need help folks, it's getting bad....in winter

Galveston enacts Stage Two Drought Contingency plan

GALVESTON – As a result of a Texas Commission on Environmental Quality mandate, the City of Galveston will enact Stage Two of its Drought Contingency Plan this Friday, December 28th.

I read the link you put up an a few lines from it seem a bit odd if not crazy!
I can do no more than agree with most of it and in fact I would totally ban water use for washing vehicles but to prohibit non requested glasses of water at tables in restaurants seems absurd!:-

"All restaurants are prohibited from serving water to patrons except upon patron request."

"These restrictions will continue until further notice. Violating water use restrictions could result in fines and penalties."
The easiest way to stop pollution is to have a world birth rate law, limiting the birth rate to 3 children per woman (with the exclusion of the rare case of multiples putting a woman over her limit).

If we can cut Africa and the Middle East down to 3 per woman, instead of the existing 5 to 8 per woman, then we will automatically solve pollution problems where they are most fundamental, since the more people there are the more pollution there will be, obviously. This requires no technology increases, and no new infrastructure, so it's the easiest solution.

Most intelligent, educated families already self enforce 2 or 3 per woman anyway, so it's only those idiots, or addicts, who go higher, which would need to be corrected/prevented from their irrational behavior.

Nations which want a tighter limit, such as China, would be free to do so.


The population limit at which humans would be producing too much CO2 through breathing alone (not counting technology or farming,) would be 41 billion. So that even if you could magically do everything else we want to do without making CO2, then just breathing would still make an net gain in CO2 per year and cause a positive slope in the keeling curve.

With business as usual, world population could reach 13 billion by 2100. With most of this population increase happening in places with little or no education, or religious fanaticism, it is easy to see how five to eight uneducated, lunatic kids having five to eight uneducated, lunatic kids could push this even higher.

"Be fruitful and exponentiate, and choke the Earth and everything in it to death!" - misquoted.
And only blond, blue eyed babes... ARE YOU FOR REAL!!!!
Quoting RTSplayer:
The easiest way to stop pollution is to have a world birth rate law, limiting the birth rate to 3 children per woman (with the exclusion of the rare case of multiples putting a woman over her limit).

If we can cut Africa and the Middle East down to 3 per woman, instead of the existing 5 to 8 per woman, then we will automatically solve pollution problems where they are most fundamental, since the more people there are the more pollution there will be, obviously. This requires no technology increases, and no new infrastructure, so it's the easiest solution.

Most intelligent, educated families already self enforce 2 or 3 per woman anyway, so it's only those idiots, or addicts, who go higher, which would need to be corrected/prevented from their irrational behavior.

Nations which want a tighter limit, such as China, would be free to do so.


The population limit at which humans would be producing too much CO2 through breathing alone (not counting technology or farming,) would be 41 billion. So that even if you could magically do everything else we want to do without making CO2, then just breathing would still make an net gain in CO2 per year and cause a positive slope in the keeling curve.

With business as usual, world population could reach 13 billion by 2100. With most of this population increase happening in places with little or no education, or religious fanaticism, it is easy to see how five to eight uneducated, lunatic kids having five to eight uneducated, lunatic kids could push this even higher.

"Be fruitful and exponentiate, and choke the Earth and everything in it to death!" - misquoted.



5cm and now the changeover
Quoting JustPlantIt:
And only blond, blue eyed babes... ARE YOU FOR REAL!!!!

My grandparents came from Germany.... Go to H----lll. It is not about the impoverished in those countries... they can not afford cars or oil or gas. Go back to your hole in the wall! And if you think that their sh----t is causing this... you really need a life buddy.
Of course, one problem with my above post is of course irrational people. The "Juno effect" will cause the people to rebel against the policy and have more kids just for the sake of "sticking it to the government". The government can help prevent this somewhat by removing child tax credits and deductions beyond the second child, but this would punish the children who are not really at fault for their parents' selfishness.

Therefore, since it would be required anyway to help enforce the child limit, governments should remove tax deductions beyond the second child, and maybe even have a penalty for a 4th child, such as each child beyond the third causes you to lose one of the first two deductions, and keep losing deductions for each additional further child until they have no deductions at all. This would discourage mega-breeder families which seem possessed and want to do nothing but manufacture babies with their lives.


Your "rights," "freedoms," and real wealth are inversely proportional to the number of humans on Earth. If population goes up 25% you will have about 25% less "freedom".

The only exceptions to this rule are the top 1% (CEO's, athletes, and entertainers, etc,) who are parasites living off the excess of everyone else.
Quoting LargoFl:
they need to build way more water retention ponds and lakes there..stormwater runoff going into the sewers etc doesnt help you at all, my town is doubling the size of lakes and ponds, been doing that for a long time now, capturing the storm water..your state needs to do that bigtime rita
Texas is working on it. The Lower Colorado River Authority is currently working to purchase land for a water retention/capture project downstream of the Highland Lake chain to supplement the water released from the lakes in drought years.

The problem now is that you can't capture what isn't there. We can dig as many pits as we want but if it doesn't rain it's just a hole in the ground to throw money in.
The number of confirmed tornadoes following Christmas' historic outbreak is up to 14. This includes 2 EF0s, 5 EF1s, 5 EF2s, and 2 EF3s.

Several more are likely to be confirmed over the following hours.
I am not irrational.... but you are a low life with an agenda and topic that does not even deal with weather. Be lucky that you can still breath because I can still produce a lot more kids!!!
Quoting RTSplayer:
Of course, one problem with my above post is of course irrational people. The "Juno effect" will cause the people to rebel against the policy and have more kids just for the sake of "sticking it to the government". The government can help prevent this somewhat by removing child tax credits and deductions beyond the second child, but this would punish the children who are not really at fault for their parents' selfishness.

Therefore, since it would be required anyway to help enforce the child limit, governments should remove tax deductions beyond the second child, and maybe even have a penalty for a 4th child, such as each child beyond the third causes you to lose one of the first two deductions, and keep losing deductions for each additional further child until they have no deductions at all. This would discourage mega-breeder families which seem possessed and want to do nothing but manufacture babies with their lives.


Your "rights," "freedoms," and real wealth are inversely proportional to the number of humans on Earth. If population goes up 25% you will have about 25% less "freedom".

The only exceptions to this rule are the top 1% (CEO's, athletes, and entertainers, etc,) who are parasites living off the excess of everyone else.

Quoting JustPlantIt:
And only blond, blue eyed babes... ARE YOU FOR REAL!!!!




This has nothing to do with racism.

It's supply and demand.

There is a limited amount of resources on Earth: land, air, water, food, energy, etc. Most of this cannot be increased, or can't be economically increased, so when you add more people you reduce living space for all people, increase food costs, increase land prices and so on.

Put 50 cows on one acre of land and let's see how long they go before they start starving to death, or eating their own poop because there's no grass to eat.

That's humanity.

Yes, there is a real limit to the maximum number of people who can live on Earth at a sustainable level.
Quoting LargoFl:
then get them to plant more tree's..im not joking..tree's release moisture thru their leaves th atthey pull up from underground..texas needs to plant millions of them..but i know..bring that up at a city hall meeting and get laughed out of the room..NOT in my city thou..they take it seriously here....
You clearly have no idea of the state of the State of Texas right now. The drought and heatwaves have been so severe that even established trees are dying. Memorial Park in Houston saw a loss last summer of almost half their pines and oaks, most were older trees that were well established.

Until the rain comes planting trees uses water that needs to be saved for drinking. Until the rain comes planting a sapling is an exercise in futility, as evidenced by a drive through any TX neighborhood. Nearly every street has dead saplings that were planted to replace the older trees lost to the drought. Even the Master Gardeners are discouraging planting trees right now and some water restrictions in place in certain areas forbid it.

What we need is rain.
Quoting JustPlantIt:
I am not irrational.... but you are a low life with an agenda and topic that does not even deal with weather. Be lucky that you can still breath because I can still produce a lot more kids!!!




That's just it, it DOES deal with weather, silly.

If population was higher then pollution is higher. If pollution is higher then climate change and acid rain and ocean acidification is higher, not to mention destruction of forests causing more erosion.

All of that plays back into weather, and the eventual destabilization of the Earth's ecosystems.
What happened to the NCEP site that has limited GFS runs?

Link

Edit=Thank you beell for posting that.
152. beell
Limited services have been restored to the Model Analysis and Guidance Website. The images for the GFS, NAM, and RAP models are now available for the North American region. We apologize for the inconvenience.
mag.ncep.noaa.gov

NCEP Operational Status Message
Thu Dec 27 14:53:51 2012 GMT

NOUS42 KWNO 271452
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1450Z THU DEC 27 2012
12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON TIME..
THE MODEL ANALYSIS AND GUIDANCE WEBSITE AT MAG.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
REMAINS DOWN. THE WOC IS INVESTIGATING THE ISSUE...ETA IS
UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP
weather.noaa.gov/tgstatus

Quoting RTSplayer:

How about eating those cows that roam the streets in India for sacred reasons??? How about no deforestation of the African Jungles or the Amazon??? Mother nature takes care of this planet... not the government. The only President who did this was T. Rosevelt in preserving national resources. We are destroying it with commercial enterprise... not people. Those who can afford... have those babies. And all that the chinese want are the males. Kiss off. The smartest are the females who can grow and produce... A FACT since the beginning of time!!! And do not go there with religion for that is a very different issue!!!!

This has nothing to do with racism.

It's supply and demand.

There is a limited amount of resources on Earth: land, air, water, food, energy, etc. Most of this cannot be increased, or can't be economically increased, so when you add more people you reduce living space for all people, increase food costs, increase land prices and so on.

Put 50 cows on one acre of land and let's see how long they go before they start starving to death, or eating their own poop because there's no grass to eat.

That's humanity.

Yes, there is a real limit to the maximum number of people who can live on Earth at a sustainable level.

154. beell
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
What happened to the NCEP site that has limited GFS model runs?

Link

Edit=Thank you beell for posting that.


NP, Tropics. nrt must be sleepin'!
You would think being banned multiple times in one month would teach you not to disrespect others, but I guess some people are hardheaded.
Quoting JustPlantIt:How about eating those cows that roam the streets in India for sacred reasons??? How about no deforestation of the African Jungles or the Amazon??? Mother nature takes care of this planet... not the government. The only President who did this was T. Rosevelt in preserving national resources. We are destroying it with commercial enterprise... not people. Those who can afford... have those babies. And all that the chinese want are the males. Kiss off. The smartest are the females who can grow and produce... A FACT since the beginning of time!!! And do not go there with religion for that is a very different issue!!!!


please learn how to use the quote feature so you don't mix your own statements in with mine.
There are now 359 days until the 2013 Winter Solstice.


: )
160. yoboi
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Beware of RTSplayer and DO NOT COMMENT



beware of what?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You would think being banned multiple times in one month would teach you not to disrespect others, but I guess some people are hardheaded.


What are you talking about?

If yuo are referring to Justplantit's post where he first responded to mine on population control, if you pay attention to the timing, I was actually responding to my own prior post during hte time he first responded to my first post.

His next response to me regarding the "irrational" part is his own fault, since I made no accusation against anyone by name, certainly not him in any case.

All I did was point out the irrationality of driving up global population to the destruction of the world, which is what humanity is currently doing.

If that is offensive, then people need offending.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You would think being banned multiple times in one month would teach you not to disrespect others, but I guess some people are hardheaded.
I am Irish.... need I say anything more?

Quoting yoboi:



beware of what?
Computer stopped... maybe not RTSplayer... not sure, all at once here

Quoting JustPlantIt:

Computer stopped... maybe not RTSplayer... not sure, all at once here
Daughters stopped too
Quoting JustPlantIt:

Computer stopped... maybe not RTSplayer... not sure, all at once here


You can quit accusing me of hacking your computer now.


Knowingly, falsely accusing someone of a crime is itself a crime. When in writing it is called "Libel".
So BAN me... sorry, I do have attitude. I do not believe in a way that tells women to only have 1 or 2 kids for the sake of environment. That does not fly with this lady!
Quoting JustPlantIt:
So BAN me... sorry, I do have attitude. I do not believe in a way that tells women to only have 1 or 2 kids for the sake of environment. That does not fly with this lady!


So what?

Just inflate world population until it collapses the food web, and then everyone dies of starvation?

Quoting RTSplayer:


You can quit accusing me of hacking your computer now.


Knowingly, falsely accusing someone of a crime is itself a crime. When in writing it is called "Libel".
I know that. AND I do not want to talk to you again! Done with this conversation. I just hope others see the meaning of what you are suggesting and I think IT is wrong. Have a good night or day wherever your "hole" may be! And Love to you because you probably never had it!
Lawdy, get a grip and please respect the owner of this entry.

portlight.org

As we announced last week, we'll be working in New York and New Jersey over the next few weeks, replacing lost medical equipment and other disability aids, and funding the re-building of ramps for people with disabilities who suffered damage to their homes from Superstorm Sandy. We're excited to be working again with the great folks from St. Bonaventure College and their outstanding volunteer group, BonaResponds! We thank their fearless leader, Jim Mahar, for his kind words, shared on Facebook earlier today:

Do you know how there are some people/organizations/firms you just can't wait to work with again?

That is how we have felt about Portlight Strategies ever since we collaborated after the Haiti Earthquake to ship wheelchairs and crutches to Haiti. Well wait no more! We are very happy to announce that we will be working with them to help those with disabilities recover from Hurricane Sandy.

We will be teaming up to build ramps, deliver supplies, and whatever else is needed. We will be providing volunteer labor and they will be helping to fund ramp building and more! It is a great thing! VERY excited about it.

So if you know of anyone with a disability that was hit by Sandy (esp in the Rockaway-Breezy Point area) please let us know.

This also means that we need more volunteers! Plan on coming to help. Dec 28 - Jan 8th (?) Stay for the whole time or just a day. But come help (and if you tell us about it in advance it really helps with planning...PLEASE)

Yes you can. No matter what your "skill set" you can help! From driving, to taking pictures, to mucking basements, to building ramps, hanging drywall, cooking, or even installing plumbing, you can help. You will learn new skills and meet great people while helping! So come help!


Sign up at
http://BonaResponds.org/


Like Jim said, if you know of anyone affected by the storm who needs help with rebuilding, or with replacement of medical equipment, please pass those needs along to us ASAP!

As always, thank you all for your continued support of our efforts!


The GFS and ECMWF are forecasting a lot of tropical activity in the Southern Hemisphere in the next 10 days, right now invest 94P in the South Pacific has a TCFA on it, both models forecast development of this:



The Southern Indian basin should also get active in the next few days, already a couple invests there.
Quoting RTSplayer:


So what?

Just inflate world population until it collapses the food web, and then everyone dies of starvation?

Just ignore the idiot. They are only on here to get you hyped up. Just tune them out, they will leave when they bore of talking to themselves. ;)
My neighbor went and helped this weekend prior to Christmas. To my amazement, there are still people without power and not even any news coverage of this. I will be helping on January 9th in NJ!
Quoting Patrap:

portlight.org

As we announced last week, we'll be working in New York and New Jersey over the next few weeks, replacing lost medical equipment and other disability aids, and funding the re-building of ramps for people with disabilities who suffered damage to their homes from Superstorm Sandy. We're excited to be working again with the great folks from St. Bonaventure College and their outstanding volunteer group, BonaResponds! We thank their fearless leader, Jim Mahar, for his kind words, shared on Facebook earlier today:

Do you know how there are some people/organizations/firms you just can't wait to work with again?

That is how we have felt about Portlight Strategies ever since we collaborated after the Haiti Earthquake to ship wheelchairs and crutches to Haiti. Well wait no more! We are very happy to announce that we will be working with them to help those with disabilities recover from Hurricane Sandy.

We will be teaming up to build ramps, deliver supplies, and whatever else is needed. We will be providing volunteer labor and they will be helping to fund ramp building and more! It is a great thing! VERY excited about it.

So if you know of anyone with a disability that was hit by Sandy (esp in the Rockaway-Breezy Point area) please let us know.

This also means that we need more volunteers! Plan on coming to help. Dec 28 - Jan 8th (?) Stay for the whole time or just a day. But come help (and if you tell us about it in advance it really helps with planning...PLEASE)

Yes you can. No matter what your "skill set" you can help! From driving, to taking pictures, to mucking basements, to building ramps, hanging drywall, cooking, or even installing plumbing, you can help. You will learn new skills and meet great people while helping! So come help!


Sign up at
http://BonaResponds.org/


Like Jim said, if you know of anyone affected by the storm who needs help with rebuilding, or with replacement of medical equipment, please pass those needs along to us ASAP!

As always, thank you all for your continued support of our efforts!



well i guess the blog has gone off the deep end.good night folks
Sorry:(
Quoting LargoFl:
well i guess the blog has gone off the deep end.good night folks

Quoting PlazaRed:

I read the link you put up an a few lines from it seem a bit odd if not crazy!
I can do no more than agree with most of it and in fact I would totally ban water use for washing vehicles but to prohibit non requested glasses of water at tables in restaurants seems absurd!:-

"All restaurants are prohibited from serving water to patrons except upon patron request."

"These restrictions will continue until further notice. Violating water use restrictions could result in fines and penalties."
Actually it takes more than one glass of water to serve one glass of water in a restaurant. So it would make sense to only serve upon request. A lot of restaurants do that here in the Keys where we are constantly, or at least I am, conserving water. It saves money as well:)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F
6:00 AM FST December 28 2012
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 05F (999 hPa) located at 9.4S 162.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Organization has improved slightly in the last 24 hours. Convection has increased near the system in the past 24 hours. Low level circulation center difficult to locate. System lies under an upper diffluent region and in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.35 wrap, yields DT=2.0, PT and MET agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Most global models have TD05 move southwest then south with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 10.1S 161.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 10.9S 161.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 12.6S 161.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
Good night all and sorry I went off the deep end. It offended me as it should have offended more. An insult to women all over this planet. Women who raise children should not be to blame for global warming. The real insult are governments with issues of oil, gas, coal and the Nukes. Those are the real issues that we need to get by. I believe in solar, wind and water. Free!!! But as we all know, somebody wants to grab your wallet! Could go on more about this, but I REALLY hope it snows here on Saturday in PA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Good night all and sorry I went off the deep end. It offended me as it should have offended more. An insult to women all over this planet. Women who raise children should not be to blame for global warming. The real insult are governments with issues of oil, gas, coal and the Nukes. Those are the real issues that we need to get by. I believe in solar, wind and water. Free!!! But as we all know, somebody wants to grab your wallet! Could go on more about this, but I REALLY hope it snows here on Saturday in PA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


I just read what happened...you're right.Personally, i can't fight over things w/ my girl, she is always right
This entry is never controlled by any one poster or groups,etc.

Its exists as a continuing entity of sharing, caring and a free flow of ideas,info,and dialogue for the overall good of the Human experience.


I for one thank Dr. Jeff Masters for allowing us the distinct privilege of posting here.

We are people helping people.

And that is always a Noble thing.
So I was unimpressed with the new color pallet for reflectivity i tried out during this last system... TropAnal or anyone who uses GRLEVEL 3 have any suggestions for a good color pallet for severe weather let me know.

Main reason is, I was using a -30_90 dBz and i did not receive a hook echo on the tornado that went through Mobile. Yes I know it was very close to Doppler but every radar picture I have seen from that Tornado displayed a hook.

I wish they would implement the ability to remove certain levels of dBz at will!

Needless to say I have uploaded a more constrained pallet set from 20_80 dBz. Any good ones out there I may be overlooking?
lady, i think you need to walk away from the internet for a while.

Quoting JustPlantIt:

I know that. AND I do not want to talk to you again! Done with this conversation. I just hope others see the meaning of what you are suggesting and I think IT is wrong. Have a good night or day wherever your "hole" may be! And Love to you because you probably never had it!
I could care less about tornados.I heard about snow!.Who wants to talk about snow and real winter weather?.
Quoting WDEmobmet:
So I was unimpressed with the new color pallet for reflectivity i tried out during this last system... TropAnal or anyone who uses GRLEVEL 3 have any suggestions for a good color pallet for severe weather let me know.

Main reason is, I was using a -30_90 dBz and i did not receive a hook echo on the tornado that went through Mobile. Yes I know it was very close to Doppler but every radar picture I have seen from that Tornado displayed a hook.

I wish they would implement the ability to remove certain levels of dBz at will!

Needless to say I have uploaded a more constrained pallet set from 20_80 dBz. Any good ones out there I may be overlooking?

This is the color table I use...tell me if you like it.



Quoting washingtonian115:
I could care less about tornados.I heard about snow!.Who wants to talk about snow and real winter weather?.
I want freezing rain, freezing fog, sleet, and snow mixed.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is the color table I use...tell me if you like it.





Yea that one looks good! Can I get the layout?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I want freezing rain, freezing fog, sleet, and snow mixed.
Sounds like disaster weather for drivers lol.Those are one of those weather days you just sit inside and chill with the family(or have alone time depending on your taste).
I obviously missed something I counted like 10 some comments that are missing... LOL
your self-righteous indignation aside, all that oil, gas and coal is burned because of the people on this planet, because it's cheap and plentiful.

the number one cause of destruction to our ecosystem is people. more people means more destruction. taking personal offense to this fact does not change it. pointing it out does not 'insult women'.

Quoting JustPlantIt:
Good night all and sorry I went off the deep end. It offended me as it should have offended more. An insult to women all over this planet. Women who raise children should not be to blame for global warming. The real insult are governments with issues of oil, gas, coal and the Nukes. Those are the real issues that we need to get by. I believe in solar, wind and water. Free!!! But as we all know, somebody wants to grab your wallet! Could go on more about this, but I REALLY hope it snows here on Saturday in PA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Quoting WDEmobmet:


Yea that one looks good! Can I get the layout?

units: dBZ
step: 5


color: -30 0 0 82
color: -10 125 125 125
color: -5 110 110 110
color: 0 2 231 223
color: 12.5 5 113 201
color: 15 0 252 0
color: 35 0 100 0
color: 40 255 255 0
color: 47.5 255 130 0
color: 50 242 0 0
color: 57.5 130 0 0
color: 62.5 255 255 255
color: 67.5 255 0 255
color: 72.5 172 0 172
color: 77.5 102 0 102
color: 95 0 0 0


I'm assuming you already know how to do it, but if you don't, take the above and paste it in a blank notepad file. Save that as [name].pal, and then drag it to the GRlevel3 directory. Afterwards, go to view--> set color table and click on the file.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

units: dBZ
step: 5


color: -30 0 0 82
color: -10 125 125 125
color: -5 110 110 110
color: 0 2 231 223
color: 12.5 5 113 201
color: 15 0 252 0
color: 35 0 100 0
color: 40 255 255 0
color: 47.5 255 130 0
color: 50 242 0 0
color: 57.5 130 0 0
color: 62.5 255 255 255
color: 67.5 255 0 255
color: 72.5 172 0 172
color: 77.5 102 0 102
color: 95 0 0 0


I'm assuming you already know how to do it, but if you don't, take the above and paste it in a blank notepad file. Save that as [name].pal, and then drag it to the GRlevel3 directory. Afterwards, go to view--> set color table and click on the file.


Preciate it, yea I tried making my own but I know to leave that up to someone else now
Quoting washingtonian115:
I could care less about tornados.I heard about snow!.Who wants to talk about snow and real winter weather?.


If you want snow, check out the live Snow Cam from Syracuse Area. It has let those of us without snow the ability to live vicariously. 4 cams going, pretty neat cast :)

Can find it here http://snowcam.tv/

Or just click here Link
Quoting PattiinFL:


If you want snow, check out the live Snow Cam from Syracuse Area. It has let those of us without snow the ability to live vicariously. 4 cams going, pretty neat cast :)

Can find it here http://snowcam.tv/

Or just click here Link
The local mets are calling for 1-2 inches here in D.C in terms of snow.This could all change still.I hope the storm at least drops 4 inches.
<
Quoting schwankmoe:
your self-righteous indignation aside, all that oil, gas and coal is burned because of the people on this planet, because it's cheap and plentiful.

the number one cause of destruction to our ecosystem is people. more people means more destruction. taking personal offense to this fact does not change it. pointing it out does not 'insult women'.

Quoting JustPlantIt:
Good night all and sorry I went off the deep end. It offended me as it should have offended more. An insult to women all over this planet. Women who raise children should not be to blame for global warming. The real insult are governments with issues of oil, gas, coal and the Nukes. Those are the real issues that we need to get by. I believe in solar, wind and water. Free!!! But as we all know, somebody wants to grab your wallet! Could go on more about this, but I REALLY hope it snows here on Saturday in PA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


back to the original entry...RTSplayer wrote "The easiest way to stop pollution is to have a world birth rate law, limiting the birth rate to 3 children per woman (with the exclusion of the rare case of multiples putting a woman over her limit)."
Nowhere in the statement does RTSplayer criticise men in the scenario. As I have commented before, "we" cannot ration children to the women of the world who are basically baby producing chattel for the men of their culture. I think RTSplayer should consider snipping two little tubes in some of the boys as well.
Quoting schwankmoe:
your self-righteous indignation aside, all that oil, gas and coal is burned because of the people on this planet, because it's cheap and plentiful.

the number one cause of destruction to our ecosystem is people. more people means more destruction. taking personal offense to this fact does not change it. pointing it out does not 'insult women'.

Quoting JustPlantIt:
Good night all and sorry I went off the deep end. It offended me as it should have offended more. An insult to women all over this planet. Women who raise children should not be to blame for global warming. The real insult are governments with issues of oil, gas, coal and the Nukes. Those are the real issues that we need to get by. I believe in solar, wind and water. Free!!! But as we all know, somebody wants to grab your wallet! Could go on more about this, but I REALLY hope it snows here on Saturday in PA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




Its funny how most can acknowledge the destructive nature of human beings, yet when it comes down to a rational conclusion on why and the solution, some( not all of course) just blame wicked acts of man on only the environment he/she grows up in or mental disorder, which is a circular, and illogical conclusion.

I always have hope in people. that is, helping and investing in people. I have hope in the redemption of people. However, in order to really realize that need, people have to first acknowledge human depravity.

How can we achieve sustainability of we can even acknowledge the basic tendencies of man?


Personally, its quite simple that human ability to be evil has at least some connection with our intelligence. Our level of intelligence on this planet, our awareness, our consciousness, gives us the ability to do "good" but also the ability to do "bad".
It's interesting how the life forms of closest intelligence, the great apes, come closest to displaying acts of what we might call "murder". Yet, they also might have we call "compassion as well.

With that said, even if humans have the intelligence they have because of evolution, does that mean we can hide from accountability as humans? I think not.

Of course, this leads to issues which can open a can of worms in the blog, and its weather blog, so I will end here. But, its just something to think about.


I realize, do talk, and think too much, but I am sure there are others here who have same problem ;)
Unbelievable, more water in the gauge from heavy constant mist that isn't technically rainfall than actual rain on Christmas day. Been using a bucket to catch the runoff from the gutters to water the pot plants. (Better water from the sky that has nitrogen to help the plants, than tap water)
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 359 days until the 2013 Winter Solstice.


: )


And, more importantly for us,

155 days until the start of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sounds like disaster weather for drivers lol.Those are one of those weather days you just sit inside and chill with the family(or have alone time depending on your taste).
so far we have seen a foot of snow here in southern New Brunswick, Canada
Quoting RitaEvac:
Unbelievable, more water in the gauge from heavy constant mist that isn't technically rainfall than actual rain on Christmas day. Been using a bucket to catch the runoff from the gutters to water the pot plants. (Better water from the sky that has nitrogen to help the plants, than tap water)


You may not want to share that dirty secret, lol
Quoting washingtonian115:
The local mets are calling for 1-2 inches here in D.C in terms of snow.This could all change still.I hope the storm at least drops 4 inches.


I hope you get some snow, if that is what you are wanting! I can only dream of snowfall here in Florida :)
Play nice and pleasedo not feed the trolls.


Alright TropAnal, maybe you can answer this for me..

I have shapefiles for the roads in Mississippi, Florida, and Alabama. About a year ago I got a new computer, so I had to bring all these settings back in. All shapefiles worked except for Alabama Roads. I have tried everything even contacting Forum on GRLEVEL Stuff several times for the past year. Any ideas for that
Quoting RTSplayer:
Nations which want a tighter limit, such as China, would be free to do so.
It takes a rather deranged individual to point to China to make such a point. Do you really want to promote forced abortion and forced sterilization? As countries develop, women gain the power to limit their own fertility. It has already happened in Mexico - without your approach of delving into reproductive tyranny.

Posts like yours demonstrate that in too many so-called environmentalists lurks the heart of a fascist.
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Alright TropAnal, maybe you can answer this for me..

I have shapefiles for the roads in Mississippi, Florida, and Alabama. About a year ago I got a new computer, so I had to bring all these settings back in. All shapefiles worked except for Alabama Roads. I have tried everything even contacting Forum on GRLEVEL Stuff several times for the past year. Any ideas for that

I don't have any experience with shapefiles, sorry.
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Alright TropAnal, maybe you can answer this for me..

I have shapefiles for the roads in Mississippi, Florida, and Alabama. About a year ago I got a new computer, so I had to bring all these settings back in. All shapefiles worked except for Alabama Roads. I have tried everything even contacting Forum on GRLEVEL Stuff several times for the past year. Any ideas for that


Nevermind I found secondary sites that offer GIS files
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't have any experience with shapefiles, sorry.


Its cool I appreciate it anyways (figured it out), if you ever want to load any let me kno i might be able to help
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tom Nizol is the one who suggested naming winter storm. He has his B.S. degree in Meteorology and has received many awards from the American Meteorological Society, National Weather Association, National Weather Service, US Department of Commerce, and many more. I'm sure he's credible enough.


I dont know TA..he may have SUGGESTED it but it seems a lot of people got their hands in the pot..my comment was the relation to Dr. Forbes who puts out his Torcon list with his name only as credit and actually has a segment on TWC where he discusses his list as opposed to the actual person who names the winter storms- below is from TWC themselves on EUCLID:

Welcome to the weather.com Winter Watch page. Here, we will detail the latest winter weather threats, spelled out in the winter weather summary write-up below, updated by Winter Weather Expert Tom Niziol (Twitter | Facebook), Sr. Meteorologist Tom Moore, and our Global Forecast Center meteorologists.


Doesnt say anywhere in that paragraph about who actually named Euclid? let me know if you find that out because I couldn't..and Im not trying to be funny, I am really interested in who actually names the winter storms at TWC.
WDE-Are you using ESRI?

--

BTW - Do they retire these named winter storms?
Photo taken by a 10 news viewer on top the Courtney Campbell Causway in Tampa.

Quoting Dakster:
WDE-Are you using ESRI?

--

BTW - Do they retire these named winter storms?


For the Shapefiles? I am trying to get my streets to load back on GrLevel3 but am having some difficulties with the state of Alabama
The power of an EF2 tornado..

RitaEvac: Galveston enacts Stage Two Drought Contingency plan
139 Plaza-Red: I read the link you put up and a few lines from it seem a bit odd if not crazy!
I can do no more than agree with most of it and in fact I would totally ban water use for washing vehicles. But to prohibit non requested glasses of water at tables in restaurants seems absurd!:-
"All restaurants are prohibited from serving water to patrons except upon patron request."


Most glasses of water placed on restaurant tables never get touched, beyond moving them out of the way when the food arrives.
Of those that do get touched, most are used to briefly wet the lips rather than to quench a thirst. ie If they weren't already sitting there, very few patrons would even think about wetting their lips.

Don't matter none cuz they all have to be washed&rinsed, which costs ~half a gallon (~2litres) of water per glass.
Add the energy cost of freezing&storing the (non-used) ice, and the energy cost of heating the wash&rinse water. Most electricity is produced using processes which evaporate large quantities of water solely to dump waste heat (after usable energy is extracted in steam-generators and dual-cycle generators).

So not wasting water by not filling unrequested glasses that won't be used saves a LOT more water than just the water in the glass itself.
The investigating for the Pearl River/Stone/Forrest/Perry/Greene county tornado is finally done. Maximum sustained winds were 140 mph, making it a low-end EF3 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, and the path length was *61* miles!
Quoting ncstorm:


I dont know TA..he may have SUGGESTED it but it seems a lot of people got their hands in the pot..my comment was the relation to Dr. Forbes who puts out his Torcon list with his name only as credit and actually has a segment on TWC where he discusses his list as opposed to the actual person who names the winter storms- below is from TWC themselves on EUCLID:

Welcome to the weather.com Winter Watch page. Here, we will detail the latest winter weather threats, spelled out in the winter weather summary write-up below, updated by Winter Weather Expert Tom Niziol (Twitter | Facebook), Sr. Meteorologist Tom Moore, and our Global Forecast Center meteorologists.


Doesnt say anywhere in that paragraph about who actually named Euclid? let me know if you find that out because I couldn't..and Im not trying to be funny, I am really interested in who actually names the winter storms at TWC.


Why are you so concerned who?
You never say, "WHO in the NHC named the storm?", as it's most likely a group decision, and doesn't matter who named it anyway.
But with TWC, you've GOT to know just WHO did it.
lol :)
M5.3 - 169km E of Oistins, Barbados, tremors felt in St. Lucia and Martinique.

Link
Starting month number 4 here and my rainfall total still at 1 inch since Sept 26th. Saying it is Dry is an understatement, the computer models for South Central Texas have been wrong for months.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I just read what happened...you're right.Personally, i can't fight over things w/ my girl, she is always right
Your'e learning Max.......LOL
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Photo taken by a 10 news viewer on top the Courtney Campbell Causway in Tampa.



It was very pretty on this side tonight too. Crystal clear blue skies. Cirrus uncinus, beautiful wispy mares tails briefly noctilucent after sunset. Full red spectrum as it set. Yellows pinks oranges reds, no camera, dead battery.
Quoting indianrivguy:


It was very pretty on this side tonight too. Crystal clear blue skies. Cirrus uncinus, beautiful wispy mares tails briefly noctilucent after sunset. Full red spectrum as it set. Yellows pinks oranges reds, no camera, dead battery.
I have no idea what you just said IRG, but you said it perfectly.
NWS Jackson MS @NWSJacksonMS
5 tornadoes occurred on Christmas. 140mph EF3 (130mph EF2: Forrest County) had 61mi path in Pearl River/Stone/Forrest/Perry/Greene counties

This area:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The power of an EF2 tornado..



EF-3 hurricane



Andrew
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Starting month number 4 here and my rainfall total still at 1 inch since Sept 26th. Saying it is Dry is an understatement, the computer models for South Central Texas have been wrong for months.


It's been dry there for sure. The 7 day HPC precip map from this morning had 1/2" plus for the majority of TX but unfortunately has backed off on the most recent run. Change in the forecast for the cutoff low in the SW???

Quoting indianrivguy:


EF-3 hurricane



Andrew
IRG............Mother Nature is amazing.... I worked in Miami as a volunteer after Andrew.... Unbelieveable sights. I also was in the Xenia Ohio tornado as a young girl April 3rd, 1974.
cirrus uncinis, mares tails;



noctulucent, very high night glowing clouds, still in the sun though I was dark.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Why are you so concerned who?
You never say, "WHO in the NHC named the storm?", as it's most likely a group decision, and doesn't matter who named it anyway.
But with TWC, you've GOT to know just WHO did it.
lol :)


GS, I was going to respond with something else but this topic has been discussed way too long..I'm going to do something you rarely do on this blog and be nice...have a good night..
Quoting ncstorm:


GS, I was going to respond with something else but this topic has been discussed way too long..I'm going to do something you rarely do on this blog and be nice...have a good night..


I'm nice lol, good night.
Be safe.
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Alright TropAnal, maybe you can answer this for me..

I have shapefiles for the roads in Mississippi, Florida, and Alabama. About a year ago I got a new computer, so I had to bring all these settings back in. All shapefiles worked except for Alabama Roads. I have tried everything even contacting Forum on GRLEVEL Stuff several times for the past year. Any ideas for that



You really shouldn't abbreviate TA13's name like that. o_0 :P
The expanse of land in the "severe" or "extreme" drought category is the highest in nearly six decades.

Quoting indianrivguy:
cirrus uncinis, mares tails;



noctulucent, very high night glowing clouds, still in the sun though I was dark.

But I do know my clouds.......
Thanks Dr.Masters.
I wish the southeast could experience some snow too. Like alot of snow!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



You really shouldn't abbreviate TA13's name like that. o_0 :P
LOL.....I just re-read it
Quoting MidMOwx:


It's been dry there for sure. The 7 day HPC precip map from this morning had 1/2" plus for the majority of TX but unfortunately has backed off on the most recent run. Change in the forecast for the cutoff low in the SW???

Foggy and Misty here now which is great, roads are not wet but it seems like a flood to me. LOL
Quoting Neapolitan:
I can't help but wonder why so many of those who repeatedly chastise TWC for naming winter storms don't seem bothered in the least by TWC's "exclusive" TOR:CON index. After all, many/most of the same tired arguments against naming storms can be leveled at TOR:CON: it's something concocted by a private sector business and not the government; it's not endorsed by the NWS; it's not used widely by TWC's competitors; it could cause confusion among the public; the storms they deal with (winter storms and tornadoes, respectively) are far more difficult to forecast than a hurricane; it's arrogant; it's self-serving; it's presumptuous; and so on. It seems to me, then, that there's either a lack of critical thinking skills being displayed by many here, or (more likely) some people are just so upset with Dr. Masters endorsing the science behind AGW that they will fervently nit-pick the smallest of reasons to hate--and manufacture reasons when they can't find any real ones.

IMO, 'tis a silly waste of time...
Yes, it's a waste of time to somehow propose the idea that those who don't care for TWC names as they're doing them are either lacking in critical thinking or have some AGW related vendetta against Dr. Masters. That's ridiculous.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The expanse of land in the "severe" or "extreme" drought category is the highest in nearly six decades.



One would think with all the rain and storms the drought would have seriously lessened. What is causing the drought in the first place (besides lack of rain)? I`m meaning the scientific side.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TROPICAL STORM WUKONG (T1225)
9:00 AM JST December 28 2012
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Wukong (1002 hPa) located at 9.7N 112.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 7.5N 107.3E - Tropical Depression In South China Sea
To change the subject for a post... General Norman Schwarzkopf... has died ...Another great hero for America has left us
Some explanation of the issues on the NCEP's model page:


On December 26, 2012, the Model Analysis and Guidance (MAG) website experienced a major hardware failure.

We are working with NOAA's Web Operations Center to return the MAG to the standard user interface. In the meantime, limited services for the North American region have been restored to accommodate our customers who access the GFS, NAM, and RAP model GIF images directly.

For those who use the web interface, we will continue to provide enhancements to this site as quickly as possible.

We apologize for any inconvenience this has caused.

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Your'e learning Max.......LOL


sure...like if you knew well
Quoting indianrivguy:
cirrus uncinis, mares tails;



noctulucent, very high night glowing clouds, still in the sun though I was dark.



Usually we only see those sorts of clouds in FL with a launch just before dusk or dawn. They about take some sort of pollution to make especially here because we don't have it so cold aloft. Yes the front brought some cold but nothing like the sunless polar portion. Alot of something must have been concentrated very high behind that line. Other things that can set off those clouds is meteor dust or large amounts of methane. Considering location & seeing the recent OMG green dots on this graph, I'll go with methane.

This is the short life of the Noctilucent Cloud beast created by the launch of Shuttle Discovery as I watched from the Turn Basin at Kennedy Space Center. 4-8-10

Quoting ncstorm:


Doesnt say anywhere in that paragraph about who actually named Euclid? let me know if you find that out because I couldn't..and Im not trying to be funny, I am really interested in who actually names the winter storms at TWC.

Winter storm names are designated by a team of Weather Channel meteorologists according to Tom Nizol.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Yes, it's a waste of time to somehow propose the idea that those who don't care for TWC names as they're doing them are either lacking in critical thinking or have some AGW related vendetta against Dr. Masters. That's ridiculous.


Well said Cos ;)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F
12:00 PM FST December 28 2012
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 05F (999 hPa) located at 10.5S 161.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 12 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has improved slightly in the last 24 hours. Deep convection persistent in past 12 hours. Low level circulation center difficult to locate. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.30 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.0, MET and PT agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Most global models move TD05 southwest then south with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 11.4S 160.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 12.1S 160.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 13.9S 160.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
I still am in shock of the irony of ION TV making the made for TV movie this year "Christmas Twister" & showing it several times right before the Christmas Twisters.. I know this says awesome scene...Brian doesn't make it so some might not find it so awesome. It was really pretty good for a cheesy disaster movie, if you are into them. I gave it 4 out of 5 stars.

It would work better if they'd give them stripper names...Bambi...Amber...Chantal...
I am a connoisseur of cheesy scify movies. Ice Spiders comes to mind...=)

Why didn't they open the door for him?
27windows~ Security locked them & run away or something. Brian was just destine to not make it. He was the brunette's crush. Wish I could find an online viewing of the complete movie. Think you'd like it.
Quoting Skyepony:


Usually we only see those sorts of clouds in FL with a launch just before dusk or dawn. They about take some sort of pollution to make especially here because we don't have it so cold aloft. Yes the front brought some cold but nothing like the sunless polar portion. Alot of something must have been concentrated very high behind that line. Other things that can set off those clouds is meteor dust or large amounts of methane. Considering location & seeing the recent OMG green dots on this graph, I'll go with methane.

This is the short life of the Noctilucent Cloud beast created by the launch of Shuttle Discovery as I watched from the Turn Basin at Kennedy Space Center. 4-8-10

I have a shot of that same one, seen from my roof on the west coast of florida.

It was April 5th 2010 btw, not the 8th =p
Quoting Forsaken:
I have a shot of that same one, seen from my roof on the west coast of florida.

It was April 5th 2010 btw, not the 8th =p


You are right. The rest of my Wunderphotos series of that day says 4-5-2010. That gif I had to use the old uploader which captures the day you upload, you're suppose to change it & I forgot.

Great shot!
Terrible night at work, and then I leave work and it is snowing pretty hard; anyone want to donate snow tires?

Thank you again to Dr. Masters and all of the wonderful contributors here :) I have learned more from this blog than any class I could ever take. Thank you all :)
The number of confirmed tornadoes on Christmas Day continues to climb and is now up to 25. This includes 6 EF0s, 9 EF1s, 8 EF2s, and 2 EF3s.
Thanks for the post # 247 Skypony. Looking at it, in the movie the 'Twister" seems to be only about 10 yards across when it picks up the boy! Kinda small.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Yes, it's a waste of time to somehow propose the idea that those who don't care for TWC names as they're doing them are either lacking in critical thinking or have some AGW related vendetta against Dr. Masters. That's ridiculous.
Please, then, continue the dialog; instead of simply calling my hypothesis "ridiculous"--and perhaps it is--how about also offering an alternate explanation of how/why some (most?) who are negatively obsessed with TWC's unilateral naming of winter storms are simultaneously completely satisfied with TWC's unilateral TOR:CON index? Thanks!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Please, then, continue the dialog; instead of simply calling my hypothesis "ridiculous", how about offering an alternate explanation of how/why some (most?) who are negatively obsessed with TWC's unilateral naming of winter storms are simultaneously completely satisfied with TWC's unilateral TOR:CON index? Thanks!


You're wanting to compare apples to oranges. One has nothing to do with the other.

Have you ever considered not being condescending and insulting? You'll catch more flies with honey than vinegar.
So still stranded at dads ummm another one of my frends put her car in the ditch ... Took us a very frndly guy with a truck and chain and 2 hours lolwhat a night
Quoting ihave27windows:
You're wanting to compare apples to oranges. One has nothing to do with the other.
They are most certainly not "apples and oranges". As I wrote earlier, they're both something concocted by a private sector business and not the government; neither is endorsed by the NWS; neither is used widely by TWC's competitors; they could both cause confusion among the public; the storms they deal with (winter storms and tornadoes, respectively) are far more difficult to forecast than hurricanes; it's arrogant, self-serving, and presumptuous of TWC to institute the practice; and so on. So would you care to please share with the forum on how you believe they're "apples and oranges"? Thanks!
Quoting ihave27windows:
Have you ever considered not being condescending and insulting? You'll catch more flies with honey than vinegar.
If I were trying to catch flies, I'd take your advice. But I've no use for flies. Who does?

Anyway, I do think it's funny how you highlight my "condescending and insulting" commentary, while magically missing the far more numerous insulting comments posted here just today that were aimed at TWC, Dr. Masters (this site's owners and creators), and others. Why is that?
Forum's dead...'cept for Nea, whatever.

Two things to say.
I agree with Neapolitan on that there is NO difference between naming and the TORCON with reference to TWC.

However, Neapolitan, you do write with rather a condescending attitude about your posts, and the others were not vehemently attacking the blog's owners.

And yes, I did read the earlier posts.
The naming of winter storms is nothing like TOR:CON. They are two different things.

One takes nothing more than compiling a list of names. The other is meteorology.

I don't have time to explain the idiom "You will catch more flies with honey, than vinegar" Google it.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Please, then, continue the dialog; instead of simply calling my hypothesis "ridiculous"--and perhaps it is--how about also offering an alternate explanation of how/why some (most?) who are negatively obsessed with TWC's unilateral naming of winter storms are simultaneously completely satisfied with TWC's unilateral TOR:CON index? Thanks!


Naming winter storms could potentially cause people to down-play named tropical systems, which are far more deadly in general.

Basically, it looks like TWC is just naming every low pressure system that forms now; Look, there goes another one!

TOR:CON is intended to raise awareness about a potential catastrophe.

Unlike tornadoes and hurricanes, winter storms in the U.S. in general have not caused much mass casualties in a very long time.


Then they named 4 Winter Storms before "Winter" even arrived. How do you name a Winter Storm before it's even Winter?

TWC Met: "Winter Solstice is in three weeks..."

Producer: "Meh. Close enough. Start naming. We need the ratings!"
Quoting Astrometeor:
>However, Neapolitan, you do write with rather a condescending attitude about your posts, and the others were not vehemently attacking the blog's owners.

And yes, I did read the earlier posts.
Quoting riblet2000 (#11):
It must be embarrassing [for Dr. Masters] to be forced to use these silly winter storm names. Such a great site ruined by TWC's marketing fools.
Quoting TomballTXPride (#12):
Tell me about it.

Talk about WU's credibility continuing to swirl straight down the toilet....
It was a fun ride while it lasted.
A fun ride, indeed.
You were saying? ;-)

If taking the time to write in complete, logical, and grammatical sentences containing a bare minimum of spelling, typographical, or punctuational errors makes some wish to call me "condescending", then I guess I'll wear that mantle. I've been called for worse
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The number of confirmed tornadoes on Christmas Day continues to climb and is now up to 25. This includes 6 EF0s, 9 EF1s, 8 EF2s, and 2 EF3s.
Wheres the link for that?
Alright, alright, I guess I missed a page of posts. I apologize Neapolitan.

Quoting Neapolitan:
You were saying? ;-)


Sun not very active at this time..



Credit:Solarham.net

Beautiful moon tonight..

Quoting RTSplayer:


Naming winter storms could potentially cause people to down-play named tropical systems, which are far more deadly in general.

Basically, it looks like TWC is just naming every low pressure system that forms now; Look, there goes another one!

TOR:CON is intended to raise awareness about a potential catastrophe.

Unlike tornadoes and hurricanes, winter storms in the U.S. in general have not caused much mass casualties in a very long time.


Then they named 4 Winter Storms before "Winter" even arrived. How do you name a Winter Storm before it's even Winter?

TWC Met: "Winter Solstice is in three weeks..."

Producer: "Meh. Close enough. Start naming. We need the ratings!"
The NWS issues winter storm watches and warnings whenever there is a threat of significant snow and/or ice accumulation--that is, weather typically seen in winter--regardless of the time of year. So, IMO, that leg of your argument doesn't stand.

TOR:CON is, indeed, intended to raise awareness about potentially severe weather--precisely the reason TWC began naming storms.

I can't see anyone "downplaying" a hurricane threat because TWC gave a name to a significant winter storm.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
IRG............Mother Nature is amazing.... I worked in Miami as a volunteer after Andrew.... Unbelieveable sights. I also was in the Xenia Ohio tornado as a young girl April 3rd, 1974.

I myself have heard crazy stories about the Xenia twister... how was your experience?
Mike Petersen, of the Army Corps of Engineers, says ice on the northern Mississippi River is reducing the flow more than expected. The river level is now expected to get to 3 feet at Thebes, Ill., on Jan. 6, when new limits on barges could go into place.
Quoting Newswatcher:
Thanks Dr.Masters.
I wish the southeast could experience some snow too. Like alot of snow!

NOOOOOOOOO
A man clinging for hours to a clump of bushes in the rain-swollen Los Angeles River was safely rescued by Glendale firefighters early Monday.
Off topic but I thought I would share..:)

VAN GOGH CLOUDS: On Christmas morning, Gene Hart of Jonesport, Maine, woke up early to enjoy the sunrise before opening presents. What he saw may have been the best gift of all. "There was a cloud formation showing a remarkable series of wave shapes," says Hart. "They were backlit by the rising sun over Moosabec Reach." He snapped this picture of the harbor using a 14-megapixel digital camera:
"I also took some 28x zoom images of the wave structure," says Hart. The close-ups are a must-see.



These clouds, sometimes called "billow clouds," are produced by the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability when horizontal layers of air brush by one another at different velocities. A better name might be van Gogh clouds: It is widely believed that these waves in the sky inspired the swirls in van Gogh's masterpiece The Starry Night.
Quoting pcola57:
Off topic but I thought I would share..:)

VAN GOGH CLOUDS: On Christmas morning, Gene Hart of Jonesport, Maine, woke up early to enjoy the sunrise before opening presents. What he saw may have been the best gift of all. "There was a cloud formation showing a remarkable series of wave shapes," says Hart. "They were backlit by the rising sun over Moosabec Reach." He snapped this picture of the harbor using a 14-megapixel digital camera:
"I also took some 28x zoom images of the wave structure," says Hart. The close-ups are a must-see.



These clouds, sometimes called "billow clouds," are produced by the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability when horizontal layers of air brush by one another at different velocities. A better name might be van Gogh clouds: It is widely believed that these waves in the sky inspired the swirls in van Gogh's masterpiece The Starry Night.

WOW that's amazing!
If Greg Forbes wants to call his Tornado forecast TorCon or Forbes tornado predictions. I could care less, all he is doing is making a forecast based on the latest information he has. Making a forecast is what a Meteorologist is supposed to do.

As for naming storms: This is very suggestive. Look at some of these.

The process for naming a winter storm will reflect a more complete assessment of several variables that combine to produce disruptive impacts including snowfall, ice, wind and temperature. In addition, the time of day (rush hour vs. overnight) and the day of the week (weekday school and work travel vs. weekends) will be taken into consideration in the process the meteorological team will use to name storms.

Since when is time of day or day of week or school or work travel matter to naming a storm.

Tropical Cyclones are only named when certain criteria are met.



Question: What is going to happen if Accuweather or Weatherbell or whoever starts naming storms with different rules than TWC.

One org. could have Draco, one could have Frank, one could have Alice and so on.

Maybe that is why the NWS said do not use storm names in any bulletins issued by WFO's

Quoting nymore:
If Greg Forbes wants to call his Tornado forecast TorCon or Forbes tornado predictions. I could care less, all he is doing is making a forecast based on the latest information he has. Making a forecast is what a Meteorologist is supposed to do.

As for naming storms: This is very suggestive. Look at some of these.

The process for naming a winter storm will reflect a more complete assessment of several variables that combine to produce disruptive impacts including snowfall, ice, wind and temperature. In addition, the time of day (rush hour vs. overnight) and the day of the week (weekday school and work travel vs. weekends) will be taken into consideration in the process the meteorological team will use to name storms.

Since when is time of day or day of week matter to naming a storm.

Tropical Cyclones are only named when certain criteria are meet.

Question: What is going to happen if Accuweather or Weatherbell or whoever starts naming storms with different rules than TWC.

One org. could have Draco, one could have Frank, one could have Alice and so on.

Maybe that is why the NWS said do not use storm names in any bulletins issued by WFO's


good point. that makes a lot of sense.
The Christmas Day severe weather outbreak has claimed the life of a Butler County man. 81-year-old Jessie Blackmon died from injuries suffered when a tree fell on his home in Georgiana. Relatives and neighbors are stunned by Blackmon's death.
There's still people whining about the naming of Winter Storms? Get over it. It's not a bad idea. Just because somebody uses the name they gave it doesn't cost them respect or make their forecast less relevant. Trust me, I fully understand the hate towards TWC... but as far as I've seen they haven't really been overdoing it. I would like to see names reserved for storms which are more than the ordinary type, so perhaps only 3 should have been named so far instead of 5... but that's about it.

The people still complaining about this sound really childish, and for the most part I've seen nothing but absurd arguments against the idea.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Please, then, continue the dialog; instead of simply calling my hypothesis "ridiculous"--and perhaps it is--how about also offering an alternate explanation of how/why some (most?) who are negatively obsessed with TWC's unilateral naming of winter storms are simultaneously completely satisfied with TWC's unilateral TOR:CON index? Thanks!
Nea...you're just off-base here. I see the subject of TWC naming storms as a less than minor issue in the grander scale, just something interesting, dare I say even fun, to talk about....as opposed to AGW, which is an issue that no matter how one feels is certainly going to effect us all in a gigantic way environmentally and/or financially. That's why it's ridiculous to conflate the 2 discussions.
.
I also have no beef with Tor-Con. That's a useful product all in all. I'm not a weather pro, but assigning probabilities to tornado conditions in specific locations at specific times seems more mathematical to me than naming a routine winter storm Euclid by some nebulous definitions.
.
Maybe it's best to call it a night.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The NWS issues winter storm watches and warnings whenever there is a threat of significant snow and/or ice accumulation--that is, weather typically seen in winter--regardless of the time of year. So, IMO, that leg of your argument doesn't stand.

TOR:CON is, indeed, intended to raise awareness about potentially severe weather--precisely the reason TWC began naming storms.

I can't see anyone "downplaying" a hurricane threat because TWC gave a name to a significant winter storm.


Name every low then. Why not?

It's particularly stupid to name Winter Storms and not name spring tornado outbreaks, given the situation in the past several years.


Considering that droughts and heat waves kill more people than all other weather events in this country anyway, at least over the long term, maybe we should name high pressure systems, instead of lows.
Massachusetts had some impressive winds & coastal flooding this morning.

0318 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW MILTON 42.21N 71.11W
12/27/2012 M74 MPH NORFOLK MA ASOS
AR still has 125,000 without electricity. Some airline troubles.
Quoting Skyepony:
Maine had some impressive winds & coastal flooding this morning.

0318 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW MILTON 42.21N 71.11W
12/27/2012 M74 MPH NORFOLK MA ASOS


Skye...
Just to set the record straight... KBOX is the NWS office in Taunton, MA, not Maine.
Quoting Skyepony:
Maine had some impressive winds & coastal flooding this morning.

0318 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW MILTON 42.21N 71.11W
12/27/2012 M74 MPH NORFOLK MA ASOS


I think you means Massachusetts and not Maine.
Update from Russia..

A deep freeze has claimed 135 lives in Russia over the past two weeks, the Health Ministry reports. Eight people have frozen to death in the past 24 hours. More than 2,000 people have suffered from frostbite this winter, nearly half of them were hospitalized, the ministry says. Many regions suspended school classes and temporarily shut down kindergartens due to severe freezes.
Quoting nymore:


I think you means Massachusetts and not Maine.

My bad..I'll change that.
Nice TRMM of 94P
288. wxmod
Texas today. MODIS satellite photo.



Quoting pcola57:
Off topic but I thought I would share..:)

VAN GOGH CLOUDS: On Christmas morning, Gene Hart of Jonesport, Maine, woke up early to enjoy the sunrise before opening presents. What he saw may have been the best gift of all. "There was a cloud formation showing a remarkable series of wave shapes," says Hart. "They were backlit by the rising sun over Moosabec Reach." He snapped this picture of the harbor using a 14-megapixel digital camera:
"I also took some 28x zoom images of the wave structure," says Hart. The close-ups are a must-see.



These clouds, sometimes called "billow clouds," are produced by the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability when horizontal layers of air brush by one another at different velocities. A better name might be van Gogh clouds: It is widely believed that these waves in the sky inspired the swirls in van Gogh's masterpiece The Starry Night.


awesome shot pcola...very nice!
OSCAT
292. wxmod
Atlantic coast airport clouds. MODIS

Quoting originalLT:
Thanks for the post # 247 Skypony. Looking at it, in the movie the 'Twister" seems to be only about 10 yards across when it picks up the boy! Kinda small.

There was a security camera video on utube a while back that showed a tornado that size go through a parking lot. It picked up cars and threw them around. Was amazing. Don't have a link at the moment.
Quoting ncstorm:


I dont know TA..he may have SUGGESTED it but it seems a lot of people got their hands in the pot..my comment was the relation to Dr. Forbes who puts out his Torcon list with his name only as credit and actually has a segment on TWC where he discusses his list as opposed to the actual person who names the winter storms- below is from TWC themselves on EUCLID:

Welcome to the weather.com Winter Watch page. Here, we will detail the latest winter weather threats, spelled out in the winter weather summary write-up below, updated by Winter Weather Expert Tom Niziol (Twitter | Facebook), Sr. Meteorologist Tom Moore, and our Global Forecast Center meteorologists.


Doesnt say anywhere in that paragraph about who actually named Euclid? let me know if you find that out because I couldn't..and Im not trying to be funny, I am really interested in who actually names the winter storms at TWC.
back when they first announced that they woud be naming storms, a list was posted of storm names for this season. i'm just a lurker and to lazy to read a couple weeks of the blog to find the post(s) with the names. it was a committee from the weather channel, made interesting reading as the various names were discussed. back to lurking.......
295. wxmod
Smoggy China. Modis satellite photo.











In Case anybody missed my Sunset pictures on the 26th of Dec.. Here's another chance to look at them.. Enjoy!!!
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 04U
3:00 PM WST December 28 2012
======================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 15.6S 111.7E or 790 km northwest of Karratha and 750 km north northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 16.6S 111.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 17.8S 110.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 21.1S 110.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 25.6S 109.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Convective organization associated with system 04U has greatly improved in the last 24 hours, likely due to Kelvin wave propagating through the area. However low level cloud lines are not particularly well organized and there are still low level squall lines emanating from the convection indicative of convective downdrafts driven by dry air in the mid levels. Hence it may take a little while to moisten the mid levels before the system can reach TC intensity.

Ocean heat content is high in the vicinity and shear is less than 20 knots. Upper divergence currently good to east and southeast. Conditions expected to remain favorable to very favorable over the next two days before the system moves over cooler water off the west coast. TPW is favorable, i.e. no dry air threatening the system. Expect development at D or D+ rate.

Cooler waters south of 20S should begin to weaken the system from early Monday.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F
18:00 PM FST December 28 2012
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 05F (999 hPa) located at 10.9S 161.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has improved slightly in the last 24 hours. Deep convection has decreased in past 12 hours. Low level circulation center difficult to locate. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Outflow good in all quadrants. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature are around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.35 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.0, MET an PT agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Most global models move 05F southwestward then southward with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 11.7S 160.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 12.5S 160.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.1S 160.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
UPDATE...
Not giving snowfall accumulations yet...to be updated with snowfalls this afternoon



click on pic for larger image
301. emguy
Quoting Neapolitan:
The NWS issues winter storm watches and warnings whenever there is a threat of significant snow and/or ice accumulation--that is, weather typically seen in winter--regardless of the time of year. So, IMO, that leg of your argument doesn't stand.

TOR:CON is, indeed, intended to raise awareness about potentially severe weather--precisely the reason TWC began naming storms.

I can't see anyone "downplaying" a hurricane threat because TWC gave a name to a significant winter storm.


There really was no need for the Weather Channel to start naming Winter Storms...and most people I talk to seem to think the Weather Channel has crossed the line. Truth is, they did it for a ratings...shock value impact. Otherwise, there is no meteorological value to it. People in the "winter land" have been used to snow, ice, and all mixes in between for years now, as well as the National Weather Service Watches/Warnings that come with them. The Weather Channel's naming of the system does nothing to change it...and/or help to alert the public. In fact, it's counterproductive, unpopular and just plain senseless.


Otherwise...as far as naming storms and the SnowCon Index goes:
- Here, we got .3 Inches of snow in Draco, then a dusting in Euclid, and now we get the unammed system tonight into Saturday morning. The unammed system will actually be more significant for us as it will deliver 2-3 inches here, and this storm will be more hazardous than the named ones...Especially considering where I am located and how they handle 2-3 here...YET...NO NAME...NO HYPE...NO CONSISTANCY. You see where I am going with this?
- Which brings me to the next point. 2-3 Inches of Snowfall in Wisconsin or Minnesota, or Pennsylvania is no big deal for them in all likelihood. Yet, in a place like Central Kentucky, a 2-5 inch event is highly notable with significant impacts. Down near Georgia, if you get an inch or two, those folks think they got a blizzard. Point being, the TORCON is excellent. It has well defined meterological parameters that are consistent by geographical location (anywhere tornadoes may happen). A very direct and useful tool of awareness. Again, on marketability and rankings, the SNOWCON is now introduced in piggy back effort to ride that wave of success, but it totally lacks the meteorological success/importance of TORCON. My concern about that is simple...and RTS may have a point...in that the reliable TORCON may not receive the credit it deserves in northern states down the road, in light of a very uneeded and very uneccesary overplay of products such as SNOWCON (and the naming system).
- Speaking of Meterology...and storm impacts...nobody has considered snow storm type and scientific consistancy...In naming these storms, which everyone is used to and have delt with for a long time...it's notable that true meteorology parameters are not being assigned to these, as they would be in with the development of Tropical Cyclones. Winter Storms can originate from the Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of Alaska, Noreasters coming up through the Atlantic, or as Alberta Clippers...etc. Point being is each of these winter systems are meterologically independent in how they form, where they come from, and how they impact people. To lump them all together and carte blanche name things at will as the Weather Channel has decided to do is not sound in scientific principles.



Mornin' gang!

Evening Aussie!

Nice post Em..
Good Morning Folks..7-day for Tampa Bay area........
Saturday looks to be a bit Stormy for us..........
Quoting LargoFl:
Saturday looks to be a bit Stormy for us..........


Figures.. I am heading up to spend a couple days with my son in Melbourne.. (Florida Aussie, not down under :) )

Hope all is well on your side this AM !
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
430 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

MDZ501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ050-055-501>506-281730-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0022.121229T0500Z-121229T2100Z/
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-
EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...HIGHTOWN...
MONTEREY...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...
ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
430 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
4 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM
TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY BEFORE ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DURING THE SNOW.

* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY DUE TO SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
Quoting emguy:


There really was no need for the Weather Channel to start naming Winter Storms...and most people I talk to seem to think the Weather Channel has crossed the line. Truth is, they did it for a ratings...shock value impact. Otherwise, there is no meteorological value to it. People in the "winter land" have been used to snow, ice, and all mixes in between for years now, as well as the National Weather Service Watches/Warnings that come with them. The Weather Channel's naming of the system does nothing to change it...and/or help to alert the public. In fact, it's counterproductive, unpopular and just plain senseless.
Thanks for the thoughtful response.

Back to my original point: everything you've stated could be said about TWC's TOR:CON--yet no one here has a bad word to say about it. I'm still simply wondering why such a dichotomy exists.

Yes, TWC did it for ratings. And why wouldn't they? As a for-profit broadcaster, the money they make is entirely dependent on ratings. I hardly think that's a valid knock against TWC.

I disagree that there's "no meteorological value" to TWC naming storms. After all, their stated purpose was to increase public awareness, and they've certainly done that.

Yes, people in northern climes have dealt with wintry weather forever, long before TWC and their storm naming scheme came along. Just as people in tornado alley dealt with twisters long before TWC, or the NWS. And just as people along the Gulf Coast dealt with hurricanes for centuries before the NHC was founded. So this, too, doesn't seem to be a valid point.

You wrote, "...it's counterproductive, unpopular and just plain senseless". Those are, of course, simply your subjective opinions, and I respect that. But many--including myself--would disagree with all three accusations.
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' gang!

Evening Aussie!

Nice post Em..



G'morn IRG, Aussie and all the rest.
41.5F here on the west side this morning.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Thanks for the thoughtful response.

Back to my original point: everything you've stated could be said about TWC's TOR:CON--yet no one here has a bad word to say about it. I'm still simply wondering why such a dichotomy exists.

Yes, TWC did it for ratings. And why wouldn't they? As a for-profit broadcaster, the money they make is entirely dependent on ratings. I hardly think that's a valid knock against TWC.

I disagree that there's "no meteorological value" to TWC naming storms. After all, their stated purpose was to increase public awareness, and they've certainly done that.

Yes, people in northern climes have dealt with wintry weather forever, long before TWC and their storm naming scheme came along. Just as people in tornado alley dealt with twisters long before TWC, or the NWS. And just as people along the Gulf Coast dealt with hurricanes for centuries before the NHC was founded. So this, too, doesn't seem to be a valid point.

You wrote, "...it's counterproductive, unpopular and just plain senseless". Those are, of course, simply your subjective opinions, and I respect that. But many--including myself--would disagree with all three accusations.

Um the oil companies that all the libs patronize are just trying
to make a profit yet they are ripped to shreds.
Two things I would like to see before I die. First is a lib
without hypocrisy and the second one with an original
thought. The second being most important but I doubt
I will ever see it.
Quoting tramp96:

Um the oil companies that all the libs patronize are just trying
to make a profit yet they are ripped to shreds.
Two things I would like to see before I die. First is a lib
without hypocrisy and the second one with an original
thought. The second being most important but I doubt
I will ever see it.






That is just it.

You won't see either of them.

Ever.

The hypocrisy on here reeks.








big different.TWC can make profit without polluting and exploiting the environment.Without pillaging and plunding the way the oil company can.
Quoting tramp96:

Um the oil companies that all the libs patronize are just trying
to make a profit yet they are ripped to shreds.
Two things I would like to see before I die. First is a lib
without hypocrisy and the second one with an original
thought. The second being most important but I doubt
I will ever see it.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



You really shouldn't abbreviate TA13's name like that. o_0 :P


But thats why I do it... hahaha
Quoting stormchaser43:
big different.TWC can make profit without polluting and exploiting the environment.Without pillaging and plunding the way the oil company can.

Really they use electricity to broadcast, fuel to get to their locations
and on and on. Do y'all really need it spelled out to you everyday
of your lives?
i guess i never thought about that.okay then you r right.But the big oil company still pollute and destroy the environment daily.I mean just read the comments on here to get an idea of the evil they do.Big oil is not the right answer...and TWC is not big energy buddy.
Quoting tramp96:

Really they use electricity to broadcast, fuel to get to their locations
and on and on. Do y'all really need it spelled out to you everyday
of your lives?
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
544 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-282245-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
544 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOUISIANA TODAY AND
ACROSS GEORGIA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS LATER TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. SOME MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING.

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
ROUGH SEAS...HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON

IT my birthday it my birthday it my birthday!!!:) lol
Quoting tramp96:

Um the oil companies that all the libs patronize are just trying
to make a profit yet they are ripped to shreds.
Two things I would like to see before I die. First is a lib
without hypocrisy and the second one with an original
thought. The second being most important but I doubt
I will ever see it.
Ah, but the difference is that I admit TWC will do what they can to drive up profits via increased ratings, while many corporatists refuse to acknowledge that Big Oil will do what they can to drive up their own profits. Huge difference, no?
Quoting TomballTXPride:
That is just it.

You won't see either of them.

Ever.

The hypocrisy on here wreaks.
"Wreaks" is a transitive verb, and as such requires at least one object, as in the phrase "Global warming wreaks havoc on Arctic sea ice". The word you probably meant to use was the homophone "reeks", an intransitive verb (when used in the context in which you likely intended it) meaning "emits a disagreeable odor". (Some style manuals suggest that those who have trouble remembering the difference between the two should probably just stick with the equally descriptive term "stinks".)
Good Evening all. I have seen posts of cloud formations. I clicked a photo on Christmas Eve just after a storm had past while I was down at my parents place. I can see a persons face, my wife said it was God's face.

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
IT my birthday it my birthday it my birthday!!!:) lol

Happy Birthday!!!!
Have a Great day :-)
thanks!:)
Quoting AussieStorm:

Happy Birthday!!!!
Have a Great day :-)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
IT my birthday it my birthday it my birthday!!!:) lol


Wonderful! I hope your day is a special one for you.
thanks!:)
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Wonderful! I hope your day is a special one for you.
Reunion RSMC
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET December 28 2012
==================================

Southwest of Diego Garcia: last animated satellite pictures and surface observations suggest a poorly defined and very elongated circulation approximately located near 10.2S 66.5E at 09Z. Estimated mean sea level pressure is about 1003 hPa. Last ASCAT data suggest 10-15 knots maximum winds, locally 20-25 knots far away in the South with gradient effect. Currently environmental conditions are marginal. Low level convergence is indirect equatorward (due to near equatorial westerly flow), and the trade inflow is moderate. Easterly upper level wind shear is moderate (20-25 knots according to the CIMSS data), North of the upper tropospheric ridge. For the next 3 days, last available numerical weather prediction models slowly deepen this low, with a general west southwestward movement. Low level convergence may progressively improve. Up to Sunday, the limiting factor for the development of this low should be the upper level wind shear. On and after Monday morning, wind shear is expected to decrease and the minimum should more significantly deepen.

At the extreme East of the basin: animated satellite suggests a very ill-defined low level circulation within an area of strong and very fluctuating convective activity situated North of 10.0S and between 80.0E to 87.0E. mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1005 hPa. ASCAT data do not allow to identify a center for this circulation. Now current environmental conditions are still marginal in the low levels (indirect inflow equatorward, and weak trade inflow southward). Aloft Northeasterly vertical wind shear is weak to moderate. Available NWP models generally forecast a southward movement and a slow deepening within the next 3 days, with gradual improving low level environmental conditions.

For the area southwest of Diego Garcia, the potential for development of a tropical depression is poor to fair for the next 36 hours. Beyond, it becomes good.

For the area at the extreme East of the basin, the potential for development of a tropical depression is poor to fair for the next 3 days.
Good morning. Low chance of damaging wind gusts/brief tornadoes for much of the Gulf Coast today, storms are currently moving through E TX and W LA and will progress east throughout the day.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX...FAR SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281231Z - 281400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL AND SPATIALLY LIMITED THREAT FOR A TORNADO
EXISTS THIS MORNING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE RIVER.

DISCUSSION...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1007 MB CYCLONE JUST NW
OF BPT WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING E/SEWD NEAR THE LA COAST.
WEAK/TRANSIENT AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION HAVE BEEN NOTED IN
SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE AND A NNE/SSW-ORIENTED BAND OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS...SUPPORTED BY 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT
PER INTERPOLATED VWP DATA/12Z LCH RAOB. MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE NEEDED PER MODIFIED 12Z LCH RAOB TO ELICIT EVEN MODEST
MLCAPE OF AROUND 250 J/KG...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF POOR TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD LARGELY DETER TORNADO POTENTIAL FROM BEING
REALIZED...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 12/28/2012
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:32 pm WST on Friday 28 December 2012
for the period until midnight WST Monday 31 December 2012.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

At 2pm WST a tropical low (1000hPa) was situated near 15.6S
111.7E. This low is expected to move to the south southwest and develop into a
tropical cyclone on Saturday or Sunday. At this stage it is not expected to
produce damaging winds in coastal communities, however people in the north west
of Western Australia should monitor forecasts and warnings closely.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday High
Sunday High
Monday Moderate




A weak tropical low is located outside the forecast area near 6.0S 86.0E. The
low is likely to move south and develop into a tropical cyclone on either
Saturday or Sunday. It is likely to remain outside the Western Region during
the outlook period, however there is a slight risk it may enter the region on
Monday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday Very Low
Sunday Very Low
Monday Low

_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:31pm EST on Friday the 28th of December 2012 and valid until end of
Monday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A low near the Solomon Islands is expected intensify and move southwest over the
next 24 hours and southerly for the following few days. While there is a high
chance it will develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours there is
only a moderate chance it will move west of 160 degrees east and into the Coral
Sea area of responsibility. This system is expected to remain well offshore
during the outlook period.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday: Moderate
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: Moderate

Ah, but the difference is that I admit TWC will do what they can to drive up profits via increased ratings, while many corporatists refuse to acknowledge that Big Oil will do what they can to drive up their own profits. Huge difference, no?






What is the average profit margin of the "Big Oil" companies?

And a follow up...

What is the average profit margin for other large companies?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Ah, but the difference is that I admit TWC will do what they can to drive up profits via increased ratings, while many corporatists refuse to acknowledge that Big Oil will do what they can to drive up their own profits. Huge difference, no?








What is the average profit margin of the "Big Oil" companies?

And a follow up...

What is the average profit margin for other large companies?








Doug.

Don't even bother.

This question was dodged now at least once.

Leave it alone.

The man doesn't like Oil companies big or small.

Get over it.






94P is now 05P:

Quoting Neapolitan:
Ah, but the difference is that I admit TWC will do what they can to drive up profits via increased ratings, while many corporatists refuse to acknowledge that Big Oil will do what they can to drive up their own profits. Huge difference, no?"Wreaks" is a transitive verb, and as such requires at least one object, as in the phrase "Global warming wreaks havoc on Arctic sea ice". The word you probably meant to use was the homophone "reeks", an intransitive verb (when used in the context in which you likely intended it) meaning "emits a disagreeable odor". (Some style manuals suggest that those who have trouble remembering the difference between the two should probably just stick with the equally descriptive term "stinks".)

OK so put your money where your mouth is. Boycott them
and if there are any coal or nuclear plants feeding you then
boycott them too (hint) you are being fed by coal and nuc as
we jest. And for goodness sake don't go to the hospital that
gets their power from them or the grocery store. They get their
stock from those big dirty trucks using OIL. Libs are like a comedy
act
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
94P is now 05P:


And soon to be TS Freda
Quoting tramp96:

OK so put your money where your mouth is. Boycott them
and if there are any coal or nuclear plants feeding you then
boycott them too (hint) you are being fed by coal and nuc as
we jest. And for goodness sake don't go to the hospital that
gets their power from them or the grocery store. They get their
stock from those big dirty trucks using OIL. Libs are like a comedy
act






No.

That won't be good enough for them.

They will continue to drive up your taxes and feed off you.

That is the sad truth.

They will tell you how to live.

What to eat.

What to breathe.

And then complain about it and point fingers.

It's their game.

Sad.

Yes.





Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 04U
9:00 PM WST December 28 2012
======================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 16.0S 111.7E or 710 km north northwest of Exmouth and 760 km northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 17.0S 111.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.4S 111.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 22.0S 111.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 26.8S 109.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Convective organization associated with system 04U has greatly improved in the last 24 hours, likely due to a Kelvin wave propagating through the area. Low level squall lines seem to have reduced in the last few hours indicating an increase in the mid level moisture. Increases in TPW in the area supports this.

Ocean heat content is high in the vicinity and shear is less than 20 knots. Upper divergence currently good to east and southeast. Conditions expected to remain favorable to very favorable over the next two days before the system moves over cooler water off the west coast. TPW is favorable, i.e. no dry air threatening the system. Expect development at D or D+ rate.

Cooler waters south of 20.0S should begin to weaken the system from early Monday.
If the Low of the NW Western Australian coast develops, it will be named Mitchell.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
94P is now 05P:



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [999HPA] CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 11.1 SOUTH 160.4 EAST AT 281200 UTC. POSITION POOR. TD05F MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 35 KNOTS WITHIN 080 TO 150 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM CENTRE OVER WATERS ONLY. WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

---
The only reason it's not a named tropical cyclone yet from RSMC Nadi. (Gales of 35 knots are away from the center)
Quoting AussieStorm:
If the Low of the NW Western Australian coast develops, it will be named Mitchell.


or Narelle

I am just saying this since 03U/05F is close to the border of Brisbane/Nadi Area of Responsibility.
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 05F (999 hPa) located at 11.1S 160.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots. Position poor based on hourly gms enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Organization as significantly improved in the last 24 hours. Convection has increased in the past 12 hours. Low level circulation center difficult to locate. System lies under an upper diffluent region with good outflow and center in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.5, MET and PT agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Most global models move 05F southwest then south with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 11.7S 159.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 12.3S 159.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 13.7S 160.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
Drought info for S. Central Texas. Austin had .96 in Oct. 0 in Nov, .07 in Dec. Good news is Southeast Texas has been getting good rains but so far that is about the only area of Texas getting rains that help a drought. We may get some light rain on Monday?
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


or Narelle

I am just saying this since 03U/05F is close to the border of Brisbane/Nadi Area of Responsibility.
Actually, the Low near the Solomon Islands could become Mitchell as it's forecast to become a TC just after 160E which is within the Australian Area of Responsibility. Which would make the WA Low a high chance of being named Narelle.


Goodnight all
Quoting AussieStorm:
Actually, the Low near the Solomon Islands could become Mitchell as it's forecast to become a TC just after 160E which is within the Australian Area of Responsibility. Which would make the WA Low a high chance of being named Narelle.



yup. 05F would be instantly named once it crosses 160E. Fiji would have named it only if the 35 knots were closer to the center since it reports Dvorak of T2.5.
The real time updating thing is pretty cool. When did that start?
Quoting muddertracker:
The real time updating thing is pretty cool. When did that start?


It was mid to late November, I believe.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Drought info for S. Central Texas. Austin had .96 in Oct. 0 in Nov, .07 in Dec. Good news is Southeast Texas has been getting good rains but so far that is about the only area of Texas getting rains that help a drought. We may get some light rain on Monday?
GOOD LUCK to you folks..hope you get your rain
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
IT my birthday it my birthday it my birthday!!!:) lol
CONGRATS!!..HAPPY bIRTHDAY
Warming up nicely now around here................
Quoting tramp96:

Um the oil companies that all the libs patronize are just trying
to make a profit yet they are ripped to shreds.
Two things I would like to see before I die. First is a lib
without hypocrisy and the second one with an original
thought. The second being most important but I doubt
I will ever see it.


Are we talking about Libertarians without hypocrisy? That is something I'd like to see. Libertarians are great advocators of letting the "free market" work but they refuse to acknowledge when there is a market failure such as cigarette smoking's health affects or fossil fuel's climate change affects. Socializing the costs while pocketing the profits is the mark of today's fossil fuel companies, and, yes, that is dishonest, immoral, and aggravating.

IMHO, the fossilized carbon tax/dividend was an original thought and I read about it first from a scientist liberal, James Hansen. Or, at least, that's what I remember. It's a great idea.

And if you don't like these thoughts, what is your proposal for fixing this massive problem? BAU, like me, will not last much longer. But the problem will still be here for you to deal with. Good luck.

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
708 PM CST THU DEC 27 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...
HANCOCK AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR PEARL RIVER AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...HANCOCK AND
PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS. TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION. THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.
NWS Huntsville Alabama:

THANKS TO MEG AND OHX FOR THE COORDINATION THIS MORNING.

AND IN OTHER MATTERS: AFTER BEING WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FOR SEVERAL YEARS...THIS IS MY LAST AFD AS I WILL SOON BE JOINING THE
RANKS OF THE "ARM CHAIR METEOROLOGISTS." WHILE SERVING RESIDENTS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MICHIGAN`S UPPER PENINSULA...AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...I CAN SAY WITH GREAT CERTAINTY THAT I AM
LEAVING AN AGENCY FULL OF SELFLESS INDIVIDUALS WHO SACRIFICE SO MUCH
TO SERVE AND PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THEIR RESPECTIVE CWFAS.
BEST WISHES FOR A WONDERFUL 2013!

JLL
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
NWS Huntsville Alabama:

THANKS TO MEG AND OHX FOR THE COORDINATION THIS MORNING.

AND IN OTHER MATTERS: AFTER BEING WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FOR SEVERAL YEARS...THIS IS MY LAST AFD AS I WILL SOON BE JOINING THE
RANKS OF THE "ARM CHAIR METEOROLOGISTS." WHILE SERVING RESIDENTS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MICHIGAN`S UPPER PENINSULA...AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...I CAN SAY WITH GREAT CERTAINTY THAT I AM
LEAVING AN AGENCY FULL OF SELFLESS INDIVIDUALS WHO SACRIFICE SO MUCH
TO SERVE AND PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THEIR RESPECTIVE CWFAS.
BEST WISHES FOR A WONDERFUL 2013!

JLL
congrats and good luck to you
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
904 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN SOUTH CAROLINA...

CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA EASTMAN AFFECTING CALHOUN...LEXINGTON
AND RICHLAND COUNTIES

.HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA HAS
CAUSED RISES ON THE BROAD AND THE SALUDA RIVERS. THIS WILL CAUSE
FLOODING OF THE CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA EASTMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THE
WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW CHILDREN TO
PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...
LOCAL MEDIA OR THE INTERNET FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATED
FORECASTS.

&&
looks like alot of rain with this cold front coming...
how come your girlfriend TheOnlyBravesFan only comes out when there is severe weather looming?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
NWS Huntsville Alabama:

THANKS TO MEG AND OHX FOR THE COORDINATION THIS MORNING.

AND IN OTHER MATTERS: AFTER BEING WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FOR SEVERAL YEARS...THIS IS MY LAST AFD AS I WILL SOON BE JOINING THE
RANKS OF THE "ARM CHAIR METEOROLOGISTS." WHILE SERVING RESIDENTS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MICHIGAN`S UPPER PENINSULA...AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...I CAN SAY WITH GREAT CERTAINTY THAT I AM
LEAVING AN AGENCY FULL OF SELFLESS INDIVIDUALS WHO SACRIFICE SO MUCH
TO SERVE AND PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THEIR RESPECTIVE CWFAS.
BEST WISHES FOR A WONDERFUL 2013!

JLL
AZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
544 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-282245-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
544 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOUISIANA TODAY AND
ACROSS GEORGIA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS LATER TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. SOME MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING.

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
ROUGH SEAS...HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
IT my birthday it my birthday it my birthday!!!:) lol
It is, It is, Happy Birthday
any chance of Tornados with this new cold front?....
Quoting TomballTXPride:






That is just it.

You won't see either of them.

Ever.

The hypocrisy on here reeks.








TomballTX...Good morning friend...Suggestion for you... Aquire a Roget's Thesaurus and you can be a Reek, Wreak expert also... I can imagine one poster's Thesaurus is so dog-eared it is hardly readable (is that a word?) Someone may look it up.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Drought info for S. Central Texas. Austin had .96 in Oct. 0 in Nov, .07 in Dec. Good news is Southeast Texas has been getting good rains but so far that is about the only area of Texas getting rains that help a drought. We may get some light rain on Monday?


We've had two structure fires and four outside brush fires in the last few days here just North of Austin. Def hoping for some precip on Monday. A strong front will be moving through with gusts to 35+ expected later this evening but it looks to be followed by dry air until Sunday night. Fingers crossed that folks will observe and obey the burn bans and keep the fireworks to a min.
facts are in for that Christmas bad storm...........PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
816 PM CST THU DEC 27 2012


...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 25 DECEMBER 2012 TORNADO OUTBREAK ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

.UPDATE...STORM SURVEYS CONTINUE BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...THIS
STATEMENT INCLUDES SURVEY RESULTS TO DATE...

.OVERVIEW...A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM MOVED OUT OF THE PLAINS ON
CHRISTMAS...PRODUCING NUMEROUS STRONG STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI, SOUTHWEST ALABAMA, AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SQUALL LINE. MULTIPLE
TORNADOES...SOME LONG TRACK...WERE OBSERVED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION.



.NORTHWESTERN STONE COUNTY TORNADO...

RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 111-135 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 8.3 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 100 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: DEC 25 2012
START TIME: 345 PM CST
START LOCATION: PEARL RIVER COUNTY LINE WEST OF TEXAS, MS
START LAT/LON: 30.839,-89.341

END DATE: DEC 25 2012
END TIME: 350 PM CST
END LOCATION: FORREST COUNTY LINE OR 6 NW OF WIGGINS, MS
END_LAT/LON: 30.9100,-89.2339

SURVEY_SUMMARY: TORNADO MOVED FROM NORTHEAST PEARL RIVER COUNTY INTO
EXTREME NORTHWEST STONE COUNTY CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO A FEW
HOMES ON MAGNOLIA ROAD. IT CROSSED HIGHWAY 26...SNAPPING NUMEROUS PINE
TREES IN THE LAKE TAC-O-LEEN CAMPGROUND. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST
DESTROYING A MANUFACTURED HOME ON WILL LEE ROAD AND HEAVILY DAMAGING
SEVERAL FRAME HOUSES. A MANUFACTURED HOME WAS ALSO ROLLED INTO A FRAME
HOUSE. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ALSO REPORTED TREES DOWN ON PROGRESS ROAD
BEFORE THE TORNADO EXITED STONE COUNTY INTO FORREST COUNTY. THIS TORNADO
SEGMENT IN STONE COUNTY IS PART OF A 61 MILE LONG TRACK TORNADO THAT
WENT FROM CENTRAL PEARL RIVER COUNTY TO WESTERN GREENE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI.



.SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY TORNADO...

RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 111-135 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 20 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 200 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: DEC 25 2012
START TIME: 405 PM CST
START LOCATION: FORREST COUNTY LINE 7.6 MILES NORTH OF WIGGINS
START LAT/LON: 30.9687,-89.1381

END DATE: DEC 25 2012
END TIME: 432 PM CST
END LOCATION: GREENE COUNTY LINE NEAR MCLAIN, MS
END_LAT/LON: 31.1057,-88.8411

SURVEY_SUMMARY: TORNADO ENTERED PERRY COUNTY CROSSING THE DESOTO
NATIONAL FOREST AS AN EF-1 TORNADO APPROXIMATELY 100 YARDS WIDE.
THE TORNADO INCREASED IN STRENGTH BRIEFLY TO EF-2 AS IT MOVED ACROSS
HIGHWAY 29 KNOCKING DOWN ELECTRICAL TRANSMISSION LINES. THE TORNADO
CROSSED LULA COOLEY ROAD WHERE IT DESTROYED A MANUFACTURED HOME AND
HUNTING CAMP OFF SNIDER ROAD. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST AS AN
EF-1 PRODUCING DAMAGE TO A FEW HOMES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGE TO TREES.
THE TORNADO LEFT PERRY COUNTY NEAR MCLAIN. THIS TORNADO SEGMENT IN
STONE COUNTY IS PART OF A 61 MILE LONG TRACK TORNADO THAT WENT FROM
CENTRAL PEARL RIVER COUNTY TO WESTERN GREENE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI.



.WESTERN GREENE COUNTY TORNADO...

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 86-110 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 100 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: DEC 25 2012
START TIME: 432 PM CST
START LOCATION: PERRY COUNTY LINE NEAR MCLAIN, MS
START LAT/LON: 31.1057,-88.8411

END DATE: DEC 25 2012
END TIME: 434 PM CST
END LOCATION: MCLAIN, MS
END_LAT/LON: 31.1160,-88.8210

SURVEY_SUMMARY: TORNADO MOVED THROUGH THE MCLAIN AREA PRODUCING
ROOF DAMAGE TO AN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AND A FEW HOMES...AS WELL AS
SNAPPING SEVERAL TREES. THE TORNADO LIFTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION
OF OLD MISSISSIPPI 24 AND US HIGHWAY 98. THIS TORNADO SEGMENT IN
STONE COUNTY IS PART OF A 61 MILE LONG TRACK TORNADO THAT WENT
FROM CENTRAL PEARL RIVER COUNTY TO WESTERN GREENE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI.



.WILMER TORNADO (MOBILE COUNTY)...

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 86-110 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 6.8 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 100 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 1

START DATE: DEC 25 2012
START TIME: 722 PM CST
START LOCATION: JUST EAST OF HOWELL, MS
START LAT/LON: 30.7937,-88.4133

END DATE: DEC 25 2012
END TIME: 727 PM CST
END LOCATION: 2.9 MILES EAST OF WILMER, AL
END_LAT/LON: 30.8293,-88.3091

SURVEY_SUMMARY: TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF FINDLEY
ROAD AND NATCHEZ HIGHWAY WHERE IT FLIPPED OVER A TRACTOR TRAILER
SEMI RIG...PRODUCED MINOR DAMAGE TO ONE MANUFACTURED HOME...DESTROYED
A SECOND MANUFACTURED HOME...AND DAMAGED THE ROOF OF A FRAME HOUSE.
THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF WILMER...
DAMAGING A NURSERY WITH SEVERAL DESTROYED GREENHOUSES...AND SNAPPING
SEVERAL TREES BEFORE CROSSING HIGHWAY 98. THE TORNADO LIFTED JUST EAST
OF GLENWOOD ROAD.



.DEER PARK TORNADO (WASHINGTON COUNTY)...

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 86-110 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 2.2 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 110 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: DEC 25 2012
START TIME: 553 PM CST
START LOCATION: 2 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF DEER PARK, AL
START LAT/LON: 31.1929,-88.3217

END DATE: DEC 25 2012
END TIME: 601 PM CST
END LOCATION: 1.5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DEER PARK, AL
END_LAT/LON: 31.2098,-88.2905

SURVEY_SUMMARY: TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN TWO MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
DEER PARK. THE TORNADO WIDENED TO 110 YARDS AS IT PASSED JUST SOUTH
OF A FEW HOUSES. NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED AT THE
WIDEST POINT. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO HIGHWAY 45 AND DISSIPATED.



.RIDERWOOD TORNADO (CHOCTAW COUNTY)...

RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 111-135 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 6.0 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 0.5 MILES
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: DEC 25 2012
START TIME: 445 PM CST
START LOCATION: 8 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BUTLER, AL
START LAT/LON: 32.0573,-88.3536

END DATE: DEC 25 2012
END TIME: 456 PM CST
END LOCATION: 4.6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUTLER, AL
END_LAT/LON: 32.1231,-88.2892

SURVEY_SUMMARY: THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ALONG PINEVIEW ROAD NEAR
THE RIDERWOOD COMMUNITY...OR APPROXIMATELY 8 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST
OF BUTLER. THE WORST DAMAGE OCCURRED IN THIS AREA AS THREE
MANUFACTURED HOMES WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED...WITH THE DEBRIS BEING
BLOWN SEVERAL HUNDRED YARDS AWAY. SEVERAL OTHER STRUCTURES SUSTAINED
MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE...INCLUDING ONE MOBILE HOME AND ONE SINGLE
FAMILY RESIDENCE. A COUPLE OF BARNS/OUTBUILDINGS WERE ALSO ALMOST
COMPLETELY DESTROYED. THE TORNADO THEN MOVED NORTHEAST CROSSING
DOLLYWOOD ROAD AND COUNTY ROAD 24...WHERE EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE
OCCURRED IN THE HEAVILY FORESTED AREA. FROM THERE...THE TORNADO
CONTINUED NORTHEAST CROSSING RIDERWOOD DRIVE WHERE NUMEROUS TREES
WERE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. THE DAMAGE PATH WAS AT ITS WIDEST ALONG
RIDERWOOD DRIVE...APPROXIMATELY ONE HALF MILE. THE DAMAGE PATH THEN
NARROWED AND THE TORNADO LIFTED BEFORE REACHING ALABAMA HIGHWAY 10.



.LUVERNE TORNADO (CRENSHAW COUNTY)...

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 65-85 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.2 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: DEC 25 2012
START TIME: 421 PM CST
START LOCATION: NORTHWEST PART OF LUVERNE
START LAT/LON: 31.7206,-86.2720

END DATE: DEC 25 2012
END TIME: 423 PM CST
END LOCATION: NORTHWEST PART OF LUVERNE
END_LAT/LON: 31.7224,-86.2697

SURVEY_SUMMARY: THE TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN IN A WOODED AREA
JUST SOUTH OF JEFFCOAT STREET...WHERE TWO HARDWOOD TREES WERE
UPROOTED. AS THE TORNADO CROSSED JEFFCOAT STREET...IT CAUSED ROOF
DAMAGE TO TWO HOUSES. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST WHERE IT
CROSSED FRANKLIN STREET...CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO A THIRD
HOME AND SNAPPED TWO PINE TREES. THE TORNADO RAPIDLY DISSIPATED
AS IT MOVED INTO AN OPEN FIELD.



.PATSBURG TORNADO (CRENSHAW COUNTY)...

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 65-85 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.07 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 20 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: DEC 25 2012
START TIME: 428 PM CST
START LOCATION: 0.25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PATSBURG
START LAT/LON: 31.7928,-86.2309

END DATE: DEC 25 2012
END TIME: 430 PM CST
END LOCATION: 0.3 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PATSBURG
END_LAT/LON: 31.7937,-86.2303

SURVEY_SUMMARY: THE TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN ALONG LIVE OAK
ROAD IN PATSBURG. NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SIMS ROAD...A LARGE
PINE TREE WAS SNAPPED AND CAR WINDOWS WERE BLOWN OUT IN TWO
VEHICLES. METAL ROOFING WAS PEELED OFF A SMALL VACANT METAL
BUILDING AND A HOME SUSTAINED SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE. VIDEO
AND EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS CONFIRM THE BRIEF TOUCHDOWN.



.GROVE HILL TORNADO (CLARKE AND WILCOX COUNTIES)...
RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 111-135 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 30 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 150 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: DEC 25 2012
START TIME: 600 PM CST
START LOCATION: 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GROVE HILL, AL
START LAT/LON: 31.6180,-87.8672

END DATE: DEC 25 2012
END TIME: 640 PM CST
END LOCATION: 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAMDEN, AL
END_LAT/LON: 31.8868,-87.4739

SURVEY_SUMMARY: THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON TODD TOWN ROAD
SEVEN MILES NORTH OF JACKSON. IT THEN MOVED NORTHEAST WHERE
IT DESTROYED A FARM OUT BUILDING THEN CROSSED HIGHWAY 43
APPROXIMATELY SIX MILES SOUTHWEST OF GROVE HILL. AFTER IT
CROSSED...THE TORNADO WAS AT ITS WIDEST AND CAUSED EXTENSIVE
DAMAGE TO FARM EQUIPMENT...INCLUDING A DESTROYED GRAIN BIN.
MANY LARGE TREES WERE UPROOTED IN THIS AREA WITH MINOR STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE TO SEVERAL HOMES AS WELL. IT CONTINUED NORTHEAST UPROOTING
LARGE TREES AS IT CROSSED HIGHWAY 84...TWO MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GROVE HILL. THE TORNADO THEN WEAKENED AS THE THUNDERSTORM CORE
COLLAPSED...CAUSING A MICROBURST WHICH RESULTED IN A HALF MILE
WIDE DAMAGE SWATH ON NETTLESBORO ROAD...13 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GROVE HILL. THE TORNADO THEN REFORMED BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST
CLARKE COUNTY...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST WILCOX COUNTY. THE TORNADO
UPROOTED TREES ALONG THE WAY BEFORE DISSIPATING 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAMDEN.



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WANTS TO THANK ALL THE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES...NWS BIRMINGHAM...NWS SLIDELL
...AND NWS JACKSON FOR THEIR ASSISTANCE WITH OUR STORM
DAMAGE ASSESSMENT EFFORTS THIS WEEK.



EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES
TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

$$

BARRY/PURDY/GARMON



Great Arctic Cyclone in Summer ‘Unprecedented’: Study

Link
Quoting percylives:


Are we talking about Libertarians without hypocrisy? That is something I'd like to see. Libertarians are great advocators of letting the "free market" work but they refuse to acknowledge when there is a market failure such as cigarette smoking's health affects or fossil fuel's climate change affects. Socializing the costs while pocketing the profits is the mark of today's fossil fuel companies, and, yes, that is dishonest, immoral, and aggravating.

IMHO, the fossilized carbon tax/dividend was an original thought and I read about it first from a scientist liberal, James Hansen. Or, at least, that's what I remember. It's a great idea.

And if you don't like these thoughts, what is your proposal for fixing this massive problem? BAU, like me, will not last much longer. But the problem will still be here for you to deal with. Good luck.


I'm talking about liberals. I don't know if you relize this but this
country started because we didn't like taxes and those of us
who work don't like being forced to give our money to losers
that can't read this because they are still sleeping.
Natural gas is a great solution.
BTW don't force a tax on us when China and India could give
a rats behind.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
TomballTX...Good morning friend...Suggestion for you... Aquire a Roget's Thesaurus and you can be a Reek, Wreak expert also... I can imagine one poster's Thesaurus is so dog-eared it is hardly readable (is that a word?) Someone may look it up.




Are you talking about the Thesaurus(s) of Xyrus2000 or Neapolitan?




Quoting TomballTXPride:






No.

That won't be good enough for them.

They will continue to drive up your taxes and feed off you.

That is the sad truth.

They will tell you how to live.

What to eat.

What to breathe.

And then complain about it and point fingers.

It's their game.

Sad.

Yes.







So, essentially it sounds like what you are saying is that, if you consume things that your society has instituted as essential, like electricity, it is wrong and hypocritical to take exception to how that product is produced and brought to market, even if that production and marketing results in the mulcting of both environment and customers.

Hold that thought. :-)

It will catch up with you one day.
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Great Arctic Cyclone in Summer %u2018Unprecedented%u2019: Study

Link
Unprecedented seems to be the buzz word used lately and it is vastly over used much like Elite has become when talking about athletes.

It seems to be the worst summer storm since 1979, using unprecedented seems to be a bit of a stretch, it makes it sound like the worst ever in recorded time.

It ranks number 13 overall in storms seen in the arctic since 1979.

A little perspective is always handy.
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


So, essentially it sounds like what you are saying is that, if you consume things that your society has instituted as essential, like electricity, it is wrong and hypocritical to take exception to how that product is produced and brought to market, even if that production and marketing results in the mulcting of both environment and customers.

Hold that thought. :-)

It will catch up with you one day.





Take a look at your use of the word unprecedented.

Count the number of times from me I hear that from you.

What does that tell you??

Something to ponder today.




I guess once again the current weather is unimportant..have a great day folks
I find it amusing the level of vitriol and exasperation expressed by a few frequent posters on this board in regards to some left-leaning posts/posters on here.

Here is what I find amusing (I'm naming these as a bit of a lesson in why your arguments fail):
1. Bashing everything even remotely liberal as bad.
2. Refusing to compromise on statements.
3. Failing to present a similar level of unbiased evidence to refute someone's point.
4. Generalizing every "liberal" as having the same opinion.

As long as those 4 items are done, a viewpoint will not be considered credible, and there won't be much attention paid to it. You will note that when we get discussions on here that follow normal conversational guidelines (an open mind, lack of generalizations, compromise, acknowledgement of differing opinions), we ALL learn something. When we throw in partisan talking points and stereotypical statements... the blog ends up going into "free-for-all" mode, and there isn't much actual discussion.
Quoting calkevin77:


We've had two structure fires and four outside brush fires in the last few days here just North of Austin. Def hoping for some precip on Monday. A strong front will be moving through with gusts to 35+ expected later this evening but it looks to be followed by dry air until Sunday night. Fingers crossed that folks will observe and obey the burn bans and keep the fireworks to a min.
Not to mention the multiple power pole fires this morning that knocked out power all over Austin. The cause was dust/dirt build-up from the lack of rain mixed with the mist/drizzle overnight creating mud that caused arcing.

I'm horrified that fireworks sales are being allowed at all with how dry it is. It seems like a bad idea.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Wheres the link for that?

You can keep track on the Wikipedia page.

2012 Christmas tornado outbreak
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Ah, but the difference is that I admit TWC will do what they can to drive up profits via increased ratings, while many corporatists refuse to acknowledge that Big Oil will do what they can to drive up their own profits. Huge difference, no?






What is the average profit margin of the "Big Oil" companies?

And a follow up...

What is the average profit margin for other large companies?


Thats a very good straight forward question Doug,

I for one would like to have some find the answer to it..
I Goggled it and came up with a bunch of "I dunno" answers..
Why are they not held to a standard like other companies and be legally transparent..?
378. VR46L
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
TomballTX...Good morning friend...Suggestion for you... Aquire a Roget's Thesaurus and you can be a Reek, Wreak expert also... I can imagine one poster's Thesaurus is so dog-eared it is hardly readable (is that a word?) Someone may look it up.


LMAO...I needed a laugh today thanks
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


So, essentially it sounds like what you are saying is that, if you consume things that your society has instituted as essential, like electricity, it is wrong and hypocritical to take exception to how that product is produced and brought to market, even if that production and marketing results in the mulcting of both environment and customers.

Hold that thought. :-)

It will catch up with you one day.


Morning Mountain..
I think you may have mis-read his response..
Anyway how is your weather today?

PS..I'm going Solar (US made of course)just as soon as it becomes more affordable..
Quoting pcola57:


Thats a very good straight forward question Doug,

I for one would like to have some find the answer to it..
I Goggled it and came up with a bunch of "I dunno" answers..
Why are they not held to a standard like other companies and be legally transparent..?
They are reported you just have to know where to look.

Exxon Mobil average profit margin last 5 years is 8.33%

First Solar for the same period is 14.68%

If you want more let me know
Quoting nymore:
They are reported you just have to know where to look.

Exxon Mobil average profit margin last 5 years is 8.33%

First Solar for the same period is 14.68%

If you want more let me know


Yes I do nymore..
I guess,I mean I know, that I am rather poor at the research end of things..
A WU mail would be much appreciated.. :)
i see a early heat wave comeing too Chicago, IL like last year
i think wind shear is way be low norml for this time of year will have too watch this

Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Great Arctic Cyclone in Summer ‘Unprecedented’: Study

Link



Expect more of this as the warming trend continues.

Remember, the polar waters are warming much faster than the global average.

Scandinavia will be the new Florida, and Russia the new Gulf Coast.

AGW has only just begun. Chevron wants us to burn up ALL of the oil and gas. I wonder what earth will look like at 2000PPM atmospheric CO2?!
i think LA NINA is fourming





last weeks

Quoting LargoFl:
I guess once again the current weather is unimportant..have a great day folks


You have a great day as well Largo..
And thanks for what you post.. :)
Finally Not stranded... What a surprise storm that was. Two of my friends put their cars in the ditch and someone took out the bridge at the bottom of the hill at my father's. In all we got 5cm of snow, 5cm of ice pellets and about 10mm of rain. It made the roads of the interior so sloppy. So now looking forward to Sunday where I'm told to expect up to 30cms. Should be interesting, any predictions?
Quoting pcola57:


Yes I do nymore..
I guess,I mean I know, that I am rather poor at the research end of things..
A WU mail would be much appreciated.. :)
What do you want to know?
Quoting nymore:
Unprecedented seems to be the buzz word used lately and it is vastly over used much like Elite has become when talking about athletes.

It seems to be the worst summer storm since 1979, using unprecedented seems to be a bit of a stretch, it makes it sound like the worst ever in recorded time.

It ranks number 13 overall in storms seen in the arctic since 1979.

A little perspective is always handy.


It was an unprcedented summer storm (since 1979), so no stretch.
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think wind shear is way be low norml for this time of year will have too watch this


There are only two places with shear under 30kt... the dry side of a ULL off Africa, and a baroclinic low off Nova Scotia.

For some reason, I'm not watching the Atlantic very closely.
Quoting RTSplayer:



Expect more of this as the warming trend continues.

Remember, the polar waters are warming much faster than the global average.

Scandinavia will be the new Florida, and Russia the new Gulf Coast.

AGW has only just begun. Chevron wants us to burn up ALL of the oil and gas. I wonder what earth will look like at 2000PPM atmospheric CO2?!



Well, Florida will look like this


Quoting yonzabam:


It was an unprcedented summer storm (since 1979), so no stretch.
The cold temp outside of my location is showing UNPRECEDENTED COLD. This makes a nice headline till I point out since yesterday.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Ah, but the difference is that I admit TWC will do what they can to drive up profits via increased ratings, while many corporatists refuse to acknowledge that Big Oil will do what they can to drive up their own profits. Huge difference, no?






What is the average profit margin of the "Big Oil" companies?

And a follow up...

What is the average profit margin for other large companies?


Chevron self-reported about 10% profit margin for the past year, but that's with gasoline prices being almost a dollar cheaper than the previous year, and the price of "natural gas" plummeting over the past year or so.

Two years ago, when the price was much higher, they were probably making a far larger profit margin.

Additionally, the way "profit" is self-reported in business is BS anyway. If YOU made a million dollars in a year, you'd report that as profit, or "income" no matter how you spend it. If a business makes a million dollars and re-invests 900 thousand of it in themselves, they only report a 10% "profit," even though their net worth went up a million...


And to answer your other question.

Last year, Intel had a self-reported what amounts to a 25% profit margin, though their net worth actually went up by about twice that much as a percentage of their revenues.

As far as I know, they pay little or no taxes.

Since their re-investments, about 25% of revenue, will be good for several years, that means they don't always spend 25% of revenue per year on re-investments, therefore some years they could have a "profit" of as much as 50% of revenue, but all they need to do when that happens is just buy out a competitor to "hide" the profits as a "re-investment", which is again something normal people don't get to do with their income.
TC Five-P forms but it doesn't seem to be a threat with the exception of some rain and blustery winds to the Solomon Islands.


*Click for a larger image*
Pcola57 you have mail
Quoting RTSplayer:


Chevron self-reported about 10% profit margin for the past year, but that's with gasoline prices being almost a dollar cheaper than the previous year, and the price of "natural gas" plummeting over the past year or so.

Two years ago, when the price was much higher, they were probably making a far larger profit margin.

Additionally, the way "profit" is self-reported in business is BS anyway. If YOU made a million dollars in a year, you'd report that as profit, or "income" no matter how you spend it. If a business makes a million dollars and re-invests 900 thousand of it in themselves, they only report a 10% "profit," even though their net worth went up a million...


And to answer your other question.

Last year, Intel had a self-reported what amounts to a 25% profit margin, though their net worth actually went up by about twice that much as a percentage of their revenues.

As far as I know, they pay little or no taxes.

Since their re-investments, about 25% of revenue, will be good for several years, that means they don't always spend 25% of revenue per year on re-investments, therefore some years they could have a "profit" of as much as 50% of revenue, but all they need to do when that happens is just buy out a competitor to "hide" the profits as a "re-investment", which is again something normal people don't get to do with their income.


Hello RTS,
Can you source that info please?
TIA
Quoting yonzabam:



Well, Florida will look like this




Well that would give me property right on the GOM!
Quoting jeffs713:
I find it amusing the level of vitriol and exasperation expressed by a few frequent posters on this board in regards to some left-leaning posts/posters on here.

Here is what I find amusing (I'm naming these as a bit of a lesson in why your arguments fail):
1. Bashing everything even remotely liberal as bad.
2. Refusing to compromise on statements.
3. Failing to present a similar level of unbiased evidence to refute someone's point.
4. Generalizing every "liberal" as having the same opinion.

As long as those 4 items are done, a viewpoint will not be considered credible, and there won't be much attention paid to it. You will note that when we get discussions on here that follow normal conversational guidelines (an open mind, lack of generalizations, compromise, acknowledgement of differing opinions), we ALL learn something. When we throw in partisan talking points and stereotypical statements... the blog ends up going into "free-for-all" mode, and there isn't much actual discussion.
I would like to add groundless arguments to your list if you will let me..I actually saw one argument about how wet water is...
Quoting TomballTXPride:





Take a look at your use of the word unprecedented.

Count the number of times from me I hear that from you.

What does that tell you??

Something to ponder today.






It wasn't my use. It was a cut an paste of the title. It was a substantial enough storm that Dr. Masters wrote about it.

Tomball, you're just another blog assassin ... taking cheap shots at people that post links to stories that you don't like.
Quoting Dragod66:
Finally Not stranded... What a surprise storm that was.

Didn't the name Euclid tip you off?
It will be a race to see what name it will get. Right now, if it were to gain a name, it would be Freda. However, seeing as though it will cross 160E before it gains a name, it will probably be Mitchell.



Then this one will probably be Narelle.

Quoting MontanaZephyr:


It wasn't my use. It was a cut an paste of the title. It was a substantial enough storm that Dr. Masters wrote about it.

Tomball, you're just another blog assassin ... taking cheap shots at people that post links to stories that you don't like.

Actually I don't like the news story much either. It does not give enough background to justify the overused word "unprecedented". The original journal article is a bit more muted. From the abstract:

"The pressure of the storm was the lowest of all Arctic August storms over our record starting in 1979, and the system was also the most extreme when a combination of key cyclone properties was considered. Even though, climatologically, summer is a %u2018quiet%u2019 time in the Arctic, when compared with all Arctic storms across the period it came in as the 13th most extreme storm, warranting the attribution of %u2018Great%u2019."

Edit: according to Mary & Webster, the word "unprecedented" was unprecedented until 1623.
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think LA NINA is fourming





last weeks



I was just looking at that taz!

Definitely looks to have cooled off
Global warming

As a blizzard has just passed through Arkansas
Quoting weatherh98:
Global warming

As a blizzard has just passed through Arkansas


More heat = more evaporation = more precipitation = more blizzards.
Quoting bappit:

Didn't the name Euclid tip you off?


We don't name the storms up here... or call them by that. Also I was supposed to get 2cm of snow followed by 15-20mm of rain.
Quoting weatherh98:
Global warming

As a blizzard has just passed through Arkansas

Lol.

Global warming doesn't mean we won't ever see blizzards again.
Quoting LargoFl:
I guess once again the current weather is unimportant..have a great day folks


The current weather is unimportant most of the time.
Quoting yonzabam:



Well, Florida will look like this




Whoever has money will probably still be building right on the coast, and blaming the government every time a hurricane hits too.

If the higher projections of sea level rise are correct, which is nearly 11 feet, then you can expect 1 mile of permanent intrusion of ocean per foot of sea level rise in Louisiana. This comes to 11 linear miles INLAND of inundated land along the entire coast of Louisiana, more in some places. Even the lower estimates of 0.5m to 1m will spell serious trouble, possibly near total destruction, for NOLA and so many other locations.

Check my blog later, as I may right down a theory about the self-enforcing feedback that the thermal expansion of water will produce over time scales of generations to a few centuries. As the albedo of snow and ice are removed, Sea level rise caused by thermal expansion over time scales of centuries may be far higher than anyone realizes possible.
Quoting weatherh98:
Global warming

As a blizzard has just passed through Arkansas






Oh, but they will claim it was climate change.

And they will come up with every weather system along with their sister to explain how it happened.

They will throw in the Blocking high argument, or the overly used tiresome retreating jet stream wildcard.

They will do anything to make it look like this is all man's fault.

Be careful.









Just in case people see accumulating snot tomorrow!
Quoting Dragod66:


We don't name the storms up here... or call them by that. Also I was supposed to get 2cm of snow followed by 15-20mm of rain.

We don't name them either. Just TWC.
Quoting TomballTXPride:






That is just it.

You won't see either of them.

Ever.

The hypocrisy on here reeks.










Then why are you reading this blog? You have infinite choices- go read one you enjoy.
Quoting goosegirl1:


Then why are you reading this blog? You have infinite choices- go read one you enjoy.

That would be too easy.
Quoting bappit:

We don't name them either. Just TWC.


Yeah I know. But half the time I don't know that these things are named or not because even our crappy TWN (TWC affiliate) don't name them. I bet this new big storm that I'm getting on Sunday will not get named by TWC because I don't think it will drop that much snow on the NE US. But we will get a lot here :)
Quoting weatherh98:
Global warming

As a blizzard has just passed through Arkansas


It's hard to explain, but in the short and medium term, global warming will produce stronger winter storms in some locations due to enhanced convection, and changing of the jet stream configurations.

Over the long term, the temperature will eventually rise so much that some locations which commonly have winter weather may lose all winter weather. It depends on lots of things: elevation/topography, latitude, and proximity to water.

Even if December was the coldest December on record, which it hasn't been, it still would not be enough to prevent 2012 from being the hottest year on record for the 48.

This is probably a "normal" winter, but remember, the "30 year normal" has rotated out the 1970's, and so the "average" or "normal" has been weighted heavily by the past 15 years, where I think 13 or 14 of them are in the top 15 hottest years all time.

So if it's a tenth of a degree colder than the new normal, it's still hotter than the old normal.
Quoting yonzabam:


More heat = more evaporation = more precipitation = more blizzards.

A blizzard warning depends on strong winds. I think that was the unusual part of the snowfall in Arkansas.

The wind certainly was unusual after the front in southeast Texas. Lots of gusts over 40 mph and some to 50 mph. I saw on Lee Grenci's blog SE Tx had a 120 kt jet aloft. It was aligned with the surface winds which probably had something to do with the wind here.
I love how my avatar just disappears sometimes.
Quoting RTSplayer:



Expect more of this as the warming trend continues.

Remember, the polar waters are warming much faster than the global average.

Scandinavia will be the new Florida, and Russia the new Gulf Coast.

AGW has only just begun. Chevron wants us to burn up ALL of the oil and gas. I wonder what earth will look like at 2000PPM atmospheric CO2?!

Again. Do you drive a car and on and on and on???????
Quoting WxGeekVA:



Just in case people see accumulating snot tomorrow!


I could see how slippery that would be :)))


2012 will go down as the hottest year on record. But it's not global warming...right?
Quoting Dragod66:


Yeah I know. But half the time I don't know that these things are named or not because even our crappy TWN (TWC affiliate) don't name them. I bet this new big storm that I'm getting on Sunday will not get named by TWC because I don't think it will drop that much snow on the NE US. But we will get a lot here :)

I'm hoping we get alot because i'm in the area thats getting snow tomorrow!!! So i'm going to do my snow dance again
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


2012 will go down as the hottest year on record. But it's not global warming...right?







Incorrect.

One cannot use a single year.

One must use a baseline, such as 1981-2010 to illustrate or make a case for warming or cooling temperatures.

In addition, the United States is just a fraction of the surface mass of the entire globe.

You're learning, Cody.

Kudos.





Here:

SANTA CLARA, Calif., Jan. 19, 2012 %u2013 Intel Corporation today reported full-year revenue of $54 billion, operating income of $17.5 billion, net income of $12.9 billion and EPS of $2.39 -- all records. The company generated approximately $21 billion in cash from operations, paid dividends of $4.1 billion and used $14.1 billion to repurchase 642 million shares of stock.


Notice, "Net income" was calculated AFTER buying back stocks and re-investments, all things which actually increase their net worth, but are not taxed. Their net worth went up by about 27 billion, or about half of revenues.

Intel


Chevron paid a 19 percent effective federal tax rate in 2011, well below the statutory corporate rate of 35 percent.


Chevron 1

Chevron Corp., based in San Ramon, Calif., is the second largest investor-owned oil and gas company in the world, and the third largest American company of any type as measured by revenue and profit. Over the last year, Chevron has earned $24 billion on revenue of $231 billion.


Chevron 2

Ok, those are some sources.
Grand Rapids NWS decided to cancel the Winter Weather Advisory that never went into effect. Looks like I'll only get 2" from this one.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That would be too easy.

No to easy would be blaming somebody else for your
actions i.e. The Big Tabacco Companies. Individuals
bought cigs. with their own money smoked and then
sued a company because of their own stupidity.
Maybe just maybe the dem. party supports Big
Lawyers.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Here:

SANTA CLARA, Calif., Jan. 19, 2012 – Intel Corporation today reported full-year revenue of $54 billion, operating income of $17.5 billion, net income of $12.9 billion and EPS of $2.39 -- all records. The company generated approximately $21 billion in cash from operations, paid dividends of $4.1 billion and used $14.1 billion to repurchase 642 million shares of stock.


Notice, "Net income" was calculated AFTER buying back stocks and re-investments, all things which actually increase their net worth, but are not taxed. Their net worth went up by about 27 billion, or about half of revenues.

Intel


Chevron paid a 19 percent effective federal tax rate in 2011, well below the statutory corporate rate of 35 percent.


Chevron 1

Chevron Corp., based in San Ramon, Calif., is the second largest investor-owned oil and gas company in the world, and the third largest American company of any type as measured by revenue and profit. Over the last year, Chevron has earned $24 billion on revenue of $231 billion.


Chevron 2

Ok, those are some sources.


Ok RTS..
Thanks for the sourcing links..
Also gives alot more validity to the discussion..
Thanks again.. :)
Quoting nymore:
They are reported you just have to know where to look.

Exxon Mobil average profit margin last 5 years is 8.33%

First Solar for the same period is 14.68%

If you want more let me know


Is that gross profit or net profit? There are accounting procedures and business standards that can hide profit. Unless you can pull apart and analyze the financial statement, you are just reading numbers.
Quoting kwgirl:


Is that gross profit or net profit? There are accounting procedures and business standards that can hide profit. Unless you can pull apart and analyze the financial statement, you are just reading numbers.


Psst..hey kiwi..new blog.. :)