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Two Disturbances to Watch in the Atlantic; Megh and 96B Active in the North Indian

By: Jeff Masters 2:31 PM GMT on November 06, 2015

Cyclonic Storm Megh continues to slowly organize over the Arabian Sea as the storm heads west towards Yemen and Somalia. As of 7 am EST Friday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center put Megh's winds at 50 mph, and predicted the storm would take advantage of low wind shear and warm ocean waters near 28°C to intensify into a Category 1 storm by Sunday--although Megh could encounter some cooler patches of water upwelled last week by the passage of Tropical Cyclone Chapala. Cyclone Chapala left at least 8 fatalities and more than 200 injuries and destroyed dozens of structures in Yemen, including Socotra Island, which may receive a direct hit from Megh. As explained in more detail in Thursday's post, Megh may be a threat to Somalia, which has had more experience with tropical cyclones than Yemen in recent years.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Cyclone Megh over the Arabian Sea on November 6, 2015 at 09:15 UTC. Image credit: NASA.

A second tropical cyclone in the North Indian Ocean this weekend?
The North Indian Ocean may witness a very rare event this weekend: the existence of two simultaneous tropical cyclones in November--one in the Bay of Bengal and one in the Arabian Sea. Recent satellite loops of Invest 96B in the Bay of Bengal show that this area of heavy thunderstorms moving westwards towards Sri Lanka and the east coast of India has acquired some spin, and the European model shows this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by early next week. A 2011 study by Evan and Camargo, A Climatology of Arabian Sea Cyclonic Storms, found that between 1979 - 2008, only 1986 saw November tropical cyclones form in both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. The authors theorized that favorable conditions for development in the Arabian Sea tend to cause unfavorable conditions over the Bay of Bengal, and vice-versa.

Two Atlantic areas of disturbed weather to watch
An area of heavy thunderstorms near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands extending eastwards several hundred miles is associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough of low pressure. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the region, so development is not expected for the next two days while the disturbance moves west-northwest at about 10 mph. However, on Sunday, when the disturbance will be near the Dominican Republic and Southeast Bahamas, wind shear is expected to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and some development could occur. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 30%, respectively. The disturbance should head north by Tuesday and then northeast by Wednesday, and could bring heavy rains to Bermuda by the middle of the week. A number of members of the GFS and European ensemble models develop the system into a tropical depression.

A broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized shower activity, and will move west-northwestward into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. Wind shear is moderate at 10 - 20 knots, which may allow some slow development until the disturbance gets entangled with a cold front early next week. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20% and 20%, respectively. Very few members of the GFS and European ensemble models develop the system into a tropical depression, and the ones that do show the disturbance staying weak and stuck in the extreme southern Bay of Campache.


The science of deciphering how much long-term climate change influences shorter-term weather and climate events (attribution studies) continues to blossom. On Thursday, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) released its fourth annual special issue of the Bulletin of the AMS devoted to these attribution studies. Bob Henson will offer his take on the studies in a post later today.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thank yu// interesting weather in the atlantic for second wk in nov
From prev blog...
164. Grothar
8:31 AM CST on November 06, 2015


"JN, you are in the Pensacola area, right? "

We are just to the east closer to Destin...
Welcome back, Doc. And thanks for the new entry!

Tense times (weatherwise and whatever else) in this Arabian part of the world:

Second freak storm heads for Yemen, U.N. World Meteorological Organization says
Source: Reuters - Fri, 6 Nov 2015 12:04 GMT
From the end of this article: The freak back-to-back storms are caused by the "Indian Ocean dipole", a weather phenomenon similar to a regional El Nino, caused when surface sea temperatures are higher than normal.
Alasdair Hainsworth, head of Disaster Risk Reduction at the WMO, said the dipole should be at its maximum at the start of November, but it was still possible that there could be yet another cyclone after Megh.
"It's hard to say that that is necessarily going to occur, but certainly the conditions are there," he told Reuters.
"You'd think that it has just about run out of puff by now because the sun is moving rapidly south, but it does appear that the environment at the present time is highly conducive to these circulations."
Sea surface temperatures in the particular area of the Indian Ocean where the cyclones were occurring were between 1 and 2 degrees above average, he said.
"It's clearly enough to kick things off in a big way. So much of the atmosphere is on a knife edge."


Cholera spreads from Iraq to Syria, Kuwait, Bahrain - UNICEF
Drought, floods, displacement seen exacerbating spread
Source: Reuters - Fri, 6 Nov 2015 13:21 GMT
I was really hoping we'd seen the end of the atlantic action for this season...

Indian Ocean with Megh and 96B. Source for updates.


Met Office Storms @metofficestorms 1 Std. 1 hour ago.
Slightly cooler sea temperatures following the passage of Cyclone #Chapala may hinder intensification of #Megh
Quoting 159. Grothar:


How do we know it wasn't colder in 1871? Morning Geoff


If only you were keys then....
the nov heat wave comes too an abrupt end
Quoting 7. JRRP:


This could be an invest today. This thing is organizing quite well and even have a little spin. Thunderstorms are growing too.
Megh..

Megh has a chance to make it to the Red Sea, I think that would be a first.
14. JRRP
Thanks Jeff. Looking forward to Bob's take on the last paragraph...
Quoting 148. StormTrackerScott:



True but Arctic Cold is looming. Seeing highs on both the Euro & GFS in the 50's with lows in the 30's. Also very wet going forward from this weekend & beyond. Even snow and ice coming for folks in the mid south a week before Thanksgiving potentially.

Pattern looks very active as we approach Thanksgiving. Potentially a cold shot across followed by a Gulf system a couple days later.
I have absolutely no faith in 500-hour forecast models. Not even the Euro or GFS. Neither should you.
Quoting 16. Neapolitan:

I have absolutely no faith in 500-hour forecast models. Not even the Euro or GFS. Neither should you.


When have we had anything in the East longer than a three day drop to colder than below normal temperatures since April? Answer: we haven't. Pattern right now and for the next couple of weeks for the east is for normal to above normal temps, with very brief cool shots. Period.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
CYCLONIC STORM MEGH (ARB05-2015)
17:30 PM IST November 6 2015
=============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The Cyclonic Storm Megh moved west southwestwards at a speed of 17 km/h during past six hours and now lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 13.0N 61.0E, about 770 km east northeast of Socotra Island (41494), (Yemen), 1430 km west southwest of Mumbai (43003), and 860 km east southeast of Salalah (41316), (Oman).

It would continue to move west southwestwards towards Gulf of Aden, reaching close to northern tip of Somalia by 0600 AM UTC on November 9th. The system would weaken gradually on November 7th mainly due to cold and dry air intrusion from the Arabian peninsula.

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T2.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lie over the area between 11.0N to 15.5N and 59.5E to 63.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -70C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 994 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 12.6N 59.2E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 12.2N 57.4E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 12.0N 54.0E - 25 knots (Depression) [Near Socotra island]
72 HRS 12.3N 51.0E - Low Pressure Area [(north of Somalia)]

Additional Information
===============
The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 16.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation located to the north of the system center. The system would continue to be guided west southwestwards under the influence of the above ridge and anti-cyclonic circulation until 1200 PM UTC, November 7th. Thereafter, it would move initially westwards and then west northwestwards towards Gulf of Aden, close to northern tip of Somalia. The forecast is mainly based on multimodel ensemble guidance.

The associated convection remained almost same in past 12 hours. The winds are higher over the northern sector. The sea surface temperature around the system center is 29C. The ocean thermal energy is about 35-50 kj/cm2 around system center and 50-75 kj/cm2 to west southwest of the system center over a limited area and then decreases towards Gulf of Aden. The vertical wind shear is about 10 knots (low) around the system center and along the predicted track up to 48 hours forecast period. Thereafter, it increases. The low level relative vorticity is 100 x10-5sec-1, convergence is 5-10 x10-5sec-1,and divergence is 5-10x10-5sec-1. The animation of total precipitable water indicates cold and dry air intrusion from Arabian peninsula is continuing and the warm moist air incursion from southeast sector is reducing gradually. In association with the above the system would start weakening gradually on wards from November 7th.
India Meteorological Department
17:30 PM IST November 6 2015
=============================

The upper air cyclonic circulation over southwest Bay of Bengal & neighborhood extending up to 3.1 km above mean sea level persists. Under its influence, a low pressure area likely to form by tomorrow.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
==========================
24 HRS: NIL
24-48 HRS: MODERATE
48-72 HRS: HIGH
Wind warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

West winds gusting to 100 km/h are possible as a vigorous cold front sweeps across southern Ontario and portions of northeastern Ontario. There have been reports of damaging winds near Goderich, Shelburne, Owen Sound and Orillia as of 10:30 am.

Damage to buildings, such as to roof shingles and windows, may occur. Loose objects may be tossed by the wind and cause injury or damage. Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions due to high winds.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Please monitor local media or Weatheradio. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting Jeff Masters:

The science of deciphering how much long-term climate change influences shorter-term weather and climate events (attribution studies) continues to blossom. On Thursday, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) released its fourth annual special issue of the Bulletin of the AMS devoted to these attribution studies. Bob Henson will offer his take on the studies in a post later today.
I look forward to Bob's take on the BAMS report. National Geographic, obviously not yet victimized by Rupert Murdoch's purchase of the magazine, had a nice article out early this morning:

Half of Weather Disasters Linked to Climate Change

"From a deadly snowstorm in Nepal to a heat wave in Argentina that crashed power supplies, at least 14 extreme weather events last year bore the fingerprints of human-induced climate change, an international team of scientists reported Thursday.


Researchers examined 28 weather extremes on all seven continents to see if they were influenced by climate change or were just normal weather. Their conclusion: Half of them showed some role of climate change.

“We hope that this will help people see how climate change is affecting their day-to-day lives,” says lead editor Stephanie C. Herring of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
Plan of the Day
000 NOUS42 KNHC 061544
REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH,
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EST FRI 06 NOVEMBER 2015 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z NOVEMBER 2015 TCPOD NUMBER.....
15-164
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -GULF OF MEXICO-
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 71-
A. 07/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 07/1600Z
D. 22.5N 94.5W
E. 07/1745Z TO 07/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX AT 08/1800Z NEAR 21.0N 94.0W.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. NOTE: THE ATLANTIC WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
$$ JWP
blizzard of leaves outside the winds are taking all the leaves one tree left just like that the trees are done
Quoting 11. Andrebrooks:

This could be an invest today. This thing is organizing quite well and even have a little spin. Thunderstorms are growing too.


Oh No.
Quoting 25. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

blizzard of leaves outside the winds are taking all the leaves one tree left just like that the trees are done


Shall I play taps on my bugle?
Thank you Dr. Masters for keeping us up to speed on the Indian Ocean situation.

I thought that the there was a possibility of a dual storm event in the Indian Ocean a couple of days ago and posted a wind map link.
Here is another on for 2 days from now.

Link

Meanwhile we are having calm and very warm weather here in southern Europe, with temps at about 25/C today, even into the area around the north sea and Britain temps are warmer than normal for the time of year.
I suppose they still have to wait a while for the effects of the "cold blob," if its going to affect anybody at all that is.
Quoting 27. LongIslandBeaches:



Shall I play taps on my bugle?
don't worry your strip tease of leaves is coming lol
>
Quoting 25. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

blizzard of leaves outside the winds are taking all the leaves one tree left just like that the trees are done
That would make a nice haiku. Lemme see:

A blizzard of leaves.
The winds take them; one tree left!
Then just like that, done.

Or:

Wind gathers the leaves,
A blizzard brown and golden.
Just one left, then gone.
Umm, the video below is not for the faint-hearted! [Edit: Grothar, better not watch it] Fortunately it shows a rescue. Others weren't that lucky in Jordan yesterday (read the whole LATimes-article attached).


Youtube caption: Shocking , Saving children in Jordan during the heavy rain in 05/11/2015: Heavy rain drowned Amman the Capital of Jordan yesterday. Some brave guys are saving little children from the water that attacked their house.
More about this video from Mohammad Abultayeb here.

A deluge strikes Jordan's capital; flooding traps hundreds of people
LATimes, Nabih Bulos, Nov 5, 2015
A torrential rainstorm swept through the Jordanian capital, Amman, on Thursday, triggering flash floods that drowned three people and left hundreds stranded on waterlogged thoroughfares.
Jordan's state news agency, Petra, said a morning cloudburst "of no more than an hour" had wreaked havoc, submerging cars in Amman's city tunnels as well as putting entire floors of buildings underwater.
By the end of the day, according to a statement by the Civil Defense Department, crews had rescued about 700 people trapped in water in addition to 305 vehicles stuck in flooded roads.
The department also said three people were killed, including two Egyptian boys, 12 and 6 years old, who drowned after water pressure crushed the wall of their basement apartment. ...

More see link above.

Youtube video from Reuters.


Edit: Deathtoll now at four.
Thank you Dr. Masters.
Friday 06 November 2015
Wind warning ended for:

•City of Toronto
Quoting 16. Neapolitan:

I have absolutely no faith in 500-hour forecast models. Not even the Euro or GFS. Neither should you.
And I have faith to listen to you?
...................NOT
Quoting 35. PalmBeachWeather:

And I expect and listen to you?
...................NOT

profound and helpful comment, that. Good to see you're back, and still my #1 fan!
Geez, barb! My heart was in my mouth with that video!! A million thumbs up for those guys with the major adrenalin rushes happening!

Lindy
Quoting 36. Neapolitan:

profound and helpful comment, that. Good to see you're back, and still my #1 fan!
You thought I had died, didn't you Nea....Can't lose me that easy
Quoting 37. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Geez, barb! My heart was in my mouth with that video!! A million thumbs up for those guys with the major adrenalin rushes happening!
Lindy

My heart too is still pounding. Wonder how the guy did manage to record that video.
42. vis0
Since Nature does nor waste energy, it will use it FIRST to create weather pendulum extremes*1*

Then Natures' pendulum mean (a sort of average) will lean towards the warming, this should cause more if not most animals, creatures to want to go polewards towards more land...

 (ice after 2 or 3 sun phase cycles of extreme melt and freeze finally just goes towards melting and much of it (ice) disappears*2*)

...and lower temp. waters where storms that feed off high octane warmth are less likely toflood your home every other year instead of every 8-12 yrs.*3*

  Imagine a sped up view of how animals (including Humans) will be moving polewards to save their lives, then speed those 300 yrs up into quick bview VID, like that recent calving VIDEO (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC3VTgIPoGU) , WAIT till the entire VID plays and have an oxygen tank near by, 'cause if you have any bit of a heart you'll be left breathless.

i guess some need to see an iceberg on fire  to believe aGW...wait a few yrs as to the pacific side of the poleward areas...

FOOTNOTES::

*1*:: look around you.record cold side by side  record heat, record droughts side by side record precipitations for the past decade or so.
*2*::  ya know you can't just press a lever (like in a GE fridge® with ice dispenser) and more mile long ice cubes come out of a big fridge in space.
*3*:: Insurance companies a;ready behind closed doors (okay at private golf clubs) are writing in aGW attachments.  Funny (but sad)  i know 2 insurance reps,.  1 does not think aGW is man influenced, i wonder if that person will not sell that add-on 'cause that person thinks its not real...hmmm


Now back to the blogs topic, a topic that if posted 25-30 yrs ago (a period in time still in many of the readers' lifetime) one might do a double take looking at the calendar and think ahhh yaaH the Dr. Masters and his April fools blog,  2 TS in THE NORTH INDIAN SEA hah very funny.  NO JOKE read the blog, go look at the SAT images, pinch yourself (the Atlantic (as title states) not that big of a deal thought, it might be for November BUT for the North Indian sea wow) .
Thank You Dr. Interesting that we are starting to see tropical storm "clusters" during regional peak periods, in other basins/seas (Indian, Gulf of Arabia, etc), when this had traditionally been reserved for the Atlantic Cape Verde season and the E-Pac and W-Pac seasons.
That projected storm in the Bay of Bengal looks like its going to be a very big event. Winds from the north east all the way down the eastern coast of India.

2 days from now:-

Link

Meanwhile a big storm forecast for the weekend in the UK and they have decided to name their winter storms now.

Link
A wetter,warming World flexes its new muscle....

The forcings are beginning to show themselves more and more.

Global Climate Change Indicators

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change.

Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
Thank Dr. Masters for the report for our own Tropics and for the world perspective.
42. vis0
4:59 PM GMT on November 06, 2015

Since Nature does nor waste energy, it will use it FIRST to create weather pendulum extremes*1*

Then Natures' pendulum mean (a sort of average) will lean towards the warming, this should cause more if not most animals, creatures to want to go polewards towards more land...

(ice after 2 or 3 sun phase cycles of extreme melt and freeze finally just goes towards melting and much of it (ice) disappears*2*)

...and lower temp. waters where storms that feed off high octane warmth are less likely toflood your home every other year instead of every 8-12 yrs.*3*...



Law of least effort..Zipf's Law..It's everywhere....literally...Link

Quoting 44. PlazaRed:

Meanwhile a big storm forecast for the weekend in the UK and they have decided to name their winter storms now.
Link

Thanks, Plaza. Quote from this article about storm Abigail: Leon Brown, the forecaster for the Weather Channel UK, said: "The jet stream will fire up on most cylinders by today and through to next week, with speeds in excess of 70mph. ..." Looks like to be characteristic for the weathermen in UK that they rarely miss to mention the jetstream, lol. Noticed this in BBC weather videos as well.
Thanks Bob..I mean Doc.......Does not look like November to me...

Quoting 17. tlawson48:



When have we had anything in the East longer than a three day drop to colder than below normal temperatures since April? Answer: we haven't. Pattern right now and for the next couple of weeks for the east is for normal to above normal temps, with very brief cool shots. Period.
cold air is coming along with the storms. Winter weather will be the highlight this year for the southeast. GFS has been showing some nice cold end of the run, and it's getting colder each run. And it's showing a storm system around the 17-21 of November, with snow ice potential
000
ABNT20 KNHC 061748
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered over the eastern Bay of Campeche has changed little in
organization since yesterday. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during
the next day or two, and some slow development is possible. After
that time, the low is expected to encounter a cold front, which
would make additional development unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the eastern
Caribbean Sea across the Lesser Antilles into the Atlantic is
associated with the interaction of an upper-level trough and a west-
northwestward moving tropical wave. Development, if any, during
the next day or two should be slow to occur. However,
environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable late
in the weekend, when the system is forecast to be near or north of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains are possible over the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent


$$
Forecaster Beven.


Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1215 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-062300-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
1215 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015

.NOW...

CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER WARM AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AS TEMPERATURES PEAK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. IN FACT...A
FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARING RECORD VALUES. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER
80S INLAND. NORMAL VALUES ARE AROUND 80.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO OFFER JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR VERO
BEACH...MELBOURNE BEACH...COCOA BEACH...AND NEW SMYRNA BEACH.
THEY WILL THEN MOVE INLAND TOWARD KISSIMMEE...ORLANDO...SANFORD...
AND DELTONA. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE BRIEF FROM PASSING SHOWERS...WHICH
MAY KNOCK DOWN THE TEMPERATURE A FEW DEGREES FOR THE FORTUNATE FEW.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$

DWS
Thanks for the update Dr Masters
Too far out, but the first snow shown in the Mid South on a model run...November-20th...


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered over the eastern Bay of Campeche has changed little in
organization since yesterday. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during
the next day or two, and some slow development is possible. After
that time, the low is expected to encounter a cold front, which
would make additional development unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

2. A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the eastern
Caribbean Sea across the Lesser Antilles into the Atlantic is
associated with the interaction of an upper-level trough and a west-
northwestward moving tropical wave. Development, if any, during
the next day or two should be slow to occur. However,
environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable late
in the weekend, when the system is forecast to be near or north of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains are possible over the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Beven
Goes without saying that early November shear and a strong El Nino notwithstanding, that we have lots of wave activity in the Central Atlantic; but for the shear, it looks like early August out there.....................

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Interesting Guardian article here, showing a video and stills of a very impressive looking storm system rolling into Sydney from the sea. Not sure how rare an event it is, though. Anyone on here ever seen this kind of thing?

Link
Quoting 17. tlawson48:



When have we had anything in the East longer than a three day drop to colder than below normal temperatures since April? Answer: we haven't. Pattern right now and for the next couple of weeks for the east is for normal to above normal temps, with very brief cool shots. Period.


October averaged slightly below normal temperatures at all three DC metro airports. It does overall look warm for the next week, not continuously but overall. After ten days I have no guess of what might happen.

Still no killing frost here in DC though Oct 17 was close. None looks in the cards for the next week but Monday AM will be close again.


61. vis0
Quoting 27. LongIslandBeaches:



Shall I play taps on my bugle?
or you can tap on the link in #59, can we clone Dr Masters we need at least 3 by 2020 to keep up with Natures reply to the uncaring souls that think aGw is just 3 letters....(while at it please clone 2 Mr. Hensons, 4 sar2401 & half a vis0.,,,can't clone barbamz as shes always moving around faster than light, getting the latest) ...skip the controversy read the next blog.