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Two Caribbean disturbances to watch

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:14 PM GMT on October 14, 2007

A persistent low pressure system extending from the Central American nations of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Belize northeastward over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Haiti, and the Bahamas continues to dump heavy rain over much of the region. Heavy rains of at least five inches in northern Haiti triggered floods that killed at least 47 people Friday and left over 20,000 homeless. The flooding was worst in Cabaret, Haiti, near the north coast. No new rains fell Saturday, and further flooding is not expected. Heavy rain will continue to affect central and western Cuba today.

Connected to this deadly rain-making low pressure system is the large "sleeping giant" low pressure system that has been spinning over the Yucatan region the past week. This low continues to spin in the extreme southwest corner of the Western Caribbean, where Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras meet. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated, poorly formed circulation, which will make development into a tropical depression today unlikely. None of the models develop the system. It is forecast to move northwest over the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday, emerging into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. At that point, a trough of low pressure may be able to pull it towards a landfall near the Texas/Mexico border by Thursday. The trough may not be strong enough to turn the storm northwards, though, and it may come ashore in Mainland Mexico near Veracruz.

Even if the sleeping giant does not intensify into a tropical depression, this low could be a dangerous storm for Central America, bringing heavy rains of up to five inches to Belize, Guatemala, northwest Honduras, and Mexico's Yucatan over the the next three days. These heavy rains may also affect the Pacific coast regions of El Salvador, Mexico, and Guatemala, as the counter-clockwise flow of air around the low sucks in air from the Pacific Ocean.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall for the 24 hours ending at 2 am EDT Sunday.

New Caribbean disturbance
A tropical wave (98L) in the southern Caribbean is headed west towards Nicaragua and Honduras. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a fairly well-formed circulation. The system is under about 25 knots of wind shear, so any development today will be slow. Shear is expected to drop to 15 knots by Monday morning, which may allow for a better chance of development.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

To back up this post of mine with more facts:

Actually Adrian, if you think about it, most storms never threaten to be significant trouble, it's just our minds make them out to be that way, and we get let down when we are wrong. Just my take.

There's a reason that on average (remember, this is purely AVERAGE and nature doesn't follow by averages that often) only 2 major hurricanes develop in the Atlantic. Conditions are not that favorable, simply put. Even during the peak of the season, we can have quite some hostile conditions out there, especially in El Niño. Like I said, I think it's just our minds that perceive that everything should become significant threats and when they don't, we get upset. Just my take.
Just rained here in N Fort Worth with a steady 10mph sse wind...I can see lightning to the SE of my location...
need more than a golf umbrella barroness!
Stormybil, are you on tonight. I wondered if you revisited the 850mb vortisity model we were looking at that showed the storm firing up in the vicinity of the Fla keys?
If La Nina persists through 2008, next year could be a bad one for hurricanes imo.
98L

504. flaboyinga 2:19 AM GMT on October 15, 2007
Stormybil, are you on tonight. I wondered if you revisited the 850mb vortisity model we were looking at that showed the storm firing up in the vicinity of the Fla keys?



I was looking at it, flaboy; you can look at the model yourself here; looks like it peaks at 48 hours before coming ashore in SFl
Ok I give up.
Would someone straighten me out on how to post a link to:
wwp.greenwichmeantime.com please?
I must not be holding my mouth right or something.
how strong does it get the model doesn't show that. And u say in 48 hours from now that can happen?
510. beell
487. tiggeriffic 1:58 AM GMT on October 15, 2007
check out the next pic of the fire truck! getting closer!

Yes Ma'am. Looking good.
I forecast you will not be up all night on Hallow's Eve Eve. I take it you have schlepped a small child on your hip up and down the neigborhood a few times. The Wheel!
God Bless the Mothers
Mother Earth
Mother Nature
Mother's Love
The Heck w/father time
i do believe is www. not wwp.
Does anyone here really think that the northern gulf could really see two back to back depressions/storms as is being predicted by the models?

509. Vortex95 2:29 AM GMT on October 15, 2007
how strong does it get the model doesn't show that. And u say in 48 hours from now that can happen?



It's just vorticity, spin, basically...vorticiy models give you strength of spin, but it doesn't tell you about convection, nor does it tell you about wind speed per se...it just shows something
507. Floodman 10:23 PM EDT on October 14, 2007
I was looking at it, flaboy; you can look at the model yourself here; looks like it peaks at 48 hours before coming ashore in SFl


It's sure been consistent. I brought it up a few times and the bait was ignored. It looks like lake Okee might get some rainfall fi it comes to pass.
ty beell, a little more detail work to go, only about 20 houses in my nh to go to...quick trip, quick nite, 2 chewable tylenol and BED on that fateful nite! LOL
If La Nina persists through 2008, next year could be a bad one for hurricanes imo.

Last I heard, some models are forecasting an El Nino in 2008, which would be good news for hurricane season. However, I have not heard anything recently, and it may not come to pass. But I would not be surprised, since La Nina typically lasts a much shorter time than El Nino. And El Nino seems to be much more common as well.

If anyone saw my screwed up post, IGNORE IT PLEASE. LOL it did that when I modified comment.
Hey Beell, Inotice the clown was gone but hopefully his spirit lives on.
West Coast Marine Weather

GOES West Fog/Low Cloud Reflectivity Product


519. beell
fb
)
Beell, how close are you to the GOM?
511. Vortex95 10:29 PM EDT on October 14, 2007
i do believe is www. not wwp.

Address is direct cut and paste off of Google. I wondered about that myself but just figured it was a Mad Dog thing.
Has Patrap been on lately? I been offline for a while (daughter in the hospital) and yesterday someone said he might be ailing.
523. beell
...how close are you to the GOM?

fb, the GOM and I have been intimate for about 20 yrs.
OK-40 stat miles.
30N 95W more or less
daughter ok now fla?
Hope your daughter gets out asap, flaboyinga.

As for Pat, I heard he was sick. Haven't seen him in days.
Great. I am watching this blog for tropical weather and they just announced that Comanche, TX could get up to 60 mph winds! My critters are not going to like that.

Flood, I was born and raised in Cowtown!
524. tiggeriffic 10:49 PM EDT on October 14, 2007
daughter ok now fla?


It seems to be a kidney infection and she's five months along with our granddaughter. So we're a little on edge. She's improving with treatment, tho. Any prayers would be appreciated. Thanks.
Back in a few, have to batten down the hatches.
you got em fla...been there when i was 8 mos along with my little one, very painful, will say a prayer!
526. cattlebaroness 10:54 PM EDT on October 14, 2007

Flood, I was born and raised in Cowtown!


You must be from Arcadia, Fla. lol
Great. I am watching this blog for tropical weather and they just announced that Comanche, TX could get up to 60 mph winds! My critters are not going to like that.

I'd like that. I love watching strong winds. Always have since Isidore hit us in 2002.
522. flaboyinga 2:47 AM GMT on October 15, 2007
Has Patrap been on lately? I been offline for a while (daughter in the hospital) and yesterday someone said he might be ailing.



Patrap is in the hospital being treated for diverticulitis...by all accounts he's doing well
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
956 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 956 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
SOUTH OF ROANOKE...OR ABOUT NEAR WATAUGA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
TROPHY CLUB...ROANOKE AND SOUTHLAKE BY 1005 PM
FLOWER MOUND AND NORTHLAKE BY 1010 PM
BARTONVILLE...COPPER CANYON...DOUBLE OAK AND ARGYLE BY 1015 PM
CORINTH BY 1020 PM
baroness, I live between Keller and Haslet (pretty much WAY north)...south of Alliance airport...
did he miss something in his diet and have an attack flood?
Moonlight! what up?
531. KoritheMan 10:58 PM EDT on October 14, 2007

I'd like that. I love watching strong winds. Always have since Isidore hit us in 2002.

You oughta try fighting a house fire in a TS. I'll never forget that one. I think it was Charlie. Lottafun!
Not much Tigger. Just R-n-R. Big Monday. Saw some severe weather. BTW-saw the firetruck, awesome!
the new pic? I got a little more to go...but he is excited as you can tell in the pic!
Thanks, MLC...the storm is currently passing east of me...big wind and a ton of rain, but the worst of it has passed
Flood & Barroness, the Arcadia comment comes from when I was a kid in SW Fla. There was one ranch that went from one side of Fla to the other and Arcadia was right in the thick of it.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN STEPHENS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT

* AT 1000 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF MARLOW...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WINDS OF 60 MPH ARE LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE DUNCAN.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.
Nice work on the truck, Tig...I noticed the future fire chief in the front seat!
535. tiggeriffic 3:03 AM GMT on October 15, 2007
did he miss something in his diet and have an attack flood?



I'm not sure, Tig...
532. Floodman 11:01 PM EDT on October 14, 2007
Patrap is in the hospital being treated for diverticulitis...by all accounts he's doing well

Thanks for the news on Pat. It's kinda tame with him not around.
548. beell
Hey mlc,
always gotta watch the tail-end of these linear type t-storms-tail end currently near Wichita Falls. Warm moist inflow on SE quadrant is not disrupted generally speaking.
hope Patrap gets well

Night all

I love to watch storms also. Got an injured horse who really does not like storms and she is penned up right now. If I am not careful when I go sit on my verandah to watch it, my little bitty house will fill up with 5 dogs and 10 kitties. Some donkeys too if they thought they could get in. So far lightening but extremely still.
Hopefully Pap gets better soon. My grandmother dealt with that for the worse. Shes a changed woman now thanks to it, wish i could turn back the clock for her.
tigger, hope you made a space in the truck for his treats.
Good evening, beell. The report was saying "half-dollar" sized hail! That gets my attention.
I know this is out of the blue, but please forgive me. If someone could explain HOW they name an invest ~ is it numerical or geographic...what? ~ I'd appreciate it.

Thanks for the education.
ty on the truck flood, a little more work to go, he got the helmet from G-Pa who is a retired fireman...

As per Patrap...I am familiar with diverticulitis...hopefully just something he ate and home soon...keep us updated please
Senior picture by JFV
Nice picture...great smile...glad you are interested in the weather...hope my boys are too
whole wagon available under the truck barroness, did you get everything tied down? Critters all accounted for?
Its numerical tree. The L stands for the Tropical Atlantic.
flaboy, I wish. I have a little ranch, in Comanche TX, but I grew up in Fort Worth, TX. Arcadia sounds like the cadillac ranch, my little volkswagen ranch wants to grow up and be.:)
532. Floodman 11:01 PM EDT on October 14, 2007
Patrap is in the hospital being treated for diverticulitis...by all accounts he's doing well

My dad has had a lot of trouble with that...not a fun thing to go thru...had to change his whole diet...
Gotcha. Thanks loads!
I'll do my best to keep you upodated on Patrap's condition, folks...
JFV, are a senior now or just graduated?
565. JFV 10:25 PM CDT on October 14, 2007
were all like a close tight nit family in here arent we
Action: | Ignore User


I agree... and I am very happy about it...
573. beell
half-dollar hail=golf ball hole in head.
Little bit of rotation noted via storm-relative velocity radar loop in cell moving E, just S. of Killeen/Florence Co.
OK everyone, quick prayer for Patrap and flaboy's daughter and grandbaby!
ah, my oldest graduated this year, is in RI right now for college
Tigger, I put up some of the lighter items up, critters are not to concerned yet. They keep their ears perked with the lightning, but so far no thunder or high winds. The only laid back animals that I have are the cows, everything else really hates storms, except me. Going to go check and see how it all looks.
Flood, up until about 8:00PM EST that area due south of the keys had a lot of moisture on the WV loop. It has calmed down now, but that's where the vorticity loop shows the startup on that system. Just abovew that the dry air sure cuts a line E/W thru the straits of Fla.

Link
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

I'm about out too ya'll, little one to preschool and me to work early in the morn...
Thanks to all of you for your prayers and concern. There is no doubt that the easiest way for something to hurt one of us , is for something to hurt one of ours.
good night, sleep tight, do not let the trolls bite! LOL :0)
579. flaboyinga 3:30 AM GMT on October 15, 2007
Flood, up until about 8:00PM EST that area due south of the keys had a lot of moisture on the WV loop. It has calmed down now, but that's where the vorticity loop shows the startup on that system. Just abovew that the dry air sure cuts a line E/W thru the straits of Fla.

Link
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html



I'm guessing the vortex will pull some of the moisture it's embedded in with it; I know that the atmosphere in the GOMEX is supposed to become considerably wetter over the next few days...add to that the easing of the shear, and you may see some good activity in SFl, though the timing is bad for appreciable tropical development. Now the vortices in the NGOMEX are another story...
I'm about out of here too...Mondays are bad as a rule, you know?
563. cattlebaroness 11:23 PM EDT on October 14, 2007 Hide this comment.
flaboy, I wish. I have a little ranch, in Comanche TX, but I grew up in Fort Worth, TX. Arcadia sounds like the cadillac ranch, my little volkswagen ranch wants to grow up and be.:)


I was raised about 30 miles south of there,back in the fifties and sixties. I remember it for being chase off of it. (We didn't hang around Arcadia either if we didn't have business bein there.) I'm just blessed to have my one acre in Ga. now.lol
586. beell
You can see some water vapor moving back into the SE GOM. Will be dry in the W GOM longer. If...(if) 99l can make it to the BOC and recurve N and NE, some folks might get some rain at least.
Nite Tig,JFV
Ok mlc-I knew your question of "What can we do about the rain?" was rhetorical lol.
Link
A good night and a better tomorrow to one and all.
588. beell
Little bit of rotation noted via storm-relative velocity radar loop in cell moving E, just S. of Killeen/Florence Co.

Just severe warned this cell-storm-rel looks stronger. Moving NE between Killeen and Temple
589. beell
gn fb!
591. beell
Cent TX Radar-Storm relative velocity
Link
555. treehuggingsister 11:20 PM EDT on October 14, 2007
I know this is out of the blue, but please forgive me. If someone could explain HOW they name an invest ~ is it numerical or geographic...what? ~ I'd appreciate it.

Thanks for the education.

561. Michfan 11:22 PM EDT on October 14, 2007
Its numerical tree. The L stands for the Tropical Atlantic.


One other thing, they only use 90L thru 99L and then start over again with 90L.
593. beell
excellent mlc
lucky we have you in the interim.
Thanks MLC, we needed that.
Yesterday in Sarasota we finally had a night where the temperature dropped below 70 degrees F for the first time since last winter. It got done to 69 but looking at the forecast it looks like it will stay at 70 or above for the next week or so. This is very unusual for this time of the year where we usually have at least one strong cold front by now. In Melbourne it still hasn't gone below 71 degrees yet since last winter. With the forecast keeping temperature warm throughout Florida, this should keep the gulf and the Atlantic nice and toasty. We may have a very late season hurricane or tropical storm hit Florida this year. Hopefully this winter will stay warm.
you all have a good week and go in joy wind shear is this too high hurricane season has come to a end so go in joy 98L and 99L are RIP

Darn I guess all I am going to get is a light show tonight. No rain or wind. Critters will be happy.
MLC, do you have any problem with lightning nailing your PC's now and then. I noticed you had a storm front go thru and you guys and gals stayed up and running. I've been hit several times usually coming in on the phone line. I have an IPS now and run the phoe line thru it, but when the storm is bad I pull all cords loose from the PC.
Flood what is in the NoGOM? Is that 99/98 or? How does it look. Thanks.
If lightening gets bad, I'm generally away from telephones, pc's, etc...and I do unplug things when possible. I'm on a laptop, and just pop the power.
flaboy, me also. Had a chair catch fire when the phone line blew up. Lightning hit the telephone pole in my pasture. If it gets busy weather wise here, I will be off. I have lost 3 phones and two surge protectors in 10 months.
604. WPBFL
Wonder if Dr. Masters will discuss this:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/gore-gets-a-cold-shoulder/2007/10/13/1191696238792.html
605. beell
Severe Warning Cancelled for N Cent Bell Co in TX. Had my county wrong. There aint no Florence Co near there. Always listen to your local authorities/sources. Night time tornadoes are the worst. Keep ya'll's weather eye open round those parts.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
930 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE REGION ANOTHER DAY OF DRY AND MILD
WEATHER IS MOVING EAST THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SPLITTING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST WITH MUCH
OF THE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BC COAST. THE SOUTHERN
SPLIT IS MOVING EAST ALONG 40N AND IS GENERATING A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SEEN ON SSMI DATA ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD
BAND OFF THE COAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE CURRENT FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING NORTH OF I-80 ON
MONDAY AS THE SOUTHERN SPLIT ENERGY MOVES INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

SIGNIFICANT TELECOMMUNICATIONS/COMPUTER PROBLEMS BACK EAST THIS
EVENING WILL RESULT IN DELAYS FOR DISSEMINATION OF WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER PRODUCTS. NO ESTIMATE YET ON RETURN TO NORMAL
OPERATIONS.


good night
601. cattlebaroness 4:19 AM GMT on October 15, 2007
Flood what is in the NoGOM? Is that 99/98 or? How does it look. Thanks.



Nothing in NGOM, as yet, dear
Sebatianjer's blog has some terrific photos, too.
Queenland Australia Preparation for Tropical Cyclone Season 2007-08.
==========================

Queensland can expect more cyclone activity this season than last season, when just three cyclones (Nelson, Odette, and Pierre) developed in the Coral Sea, neither of which was severe nor made landfall.

It's unlikely however that the coming season will be as active as 2005-06 when severe cyclones Larry and Monica struck the east coast.

----------------------------------------------

Australia Northern Territory Tropical Cyclone Season Preparation Bulletin
======================

Northern Territory residents are being urged to begin preparations for the coming tropical cyclone season. The recommendation comes as the Bureau of Meteorology and the Northern Territory Emergency Service begin their pre-season cyclone awareness education programmes.

This season the Northern Territory is expecting a busier cyclone season than last year, with an average to above average number of cyclones in the Northern Region. (The average is 2 to 3.)

-----------------------------------------------

Details of the 2007/2008 Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for North West Australia:
======================

Significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal impact during the season.

Likelihood of around two coastal impacts.

Possibility of a pre-Christmas cyclone. Should one form before Christmas; there is a risk of a coastal crossing, most likely in the Kimberley or Eighty-mile Beach area. However all North West communities need to prepare early to mitigate against the risk.

Total number of cyclones in the northwest region is expected to be greater than last season, with a likely return to near average numbers (the average number of cyclones is 5)

---
Sorry for the post being long.. Anyway looks like Australia might have more named storms this season than just seven.

SIGNIFICANT TELECOMMUNICATIONS/COMPUTER PROBLEMS BACK EAST THIS
EVENING WILL RESULT IN DELAYS FOR DISSEMINATION OF WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER PRODUCTS. NO ESTIMATE YET ON RETURN TO NORMAL
OPERATIONS.


Wow Taz, that sucks. :(
Sorry for the post being long.. Anyway looks like Australia might have more named storms this season than just seven.

As much as I do not want it to happen, it would be fascinating to see another Monica on satellite. I would hope it would weaken before hitting land though, but I would like to see another Monica on satellite, watch its formative and dissipation stages. I didn't get to do that with the actual Monica.
hurricane24, could you give us an address or a link to the navy site to which you are referring? Cuz http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html is tracking 98L and 99L as two separate Invests
after blackout looks like 99l is just about to get in th gom

and 98l gains lots more convection .

today should be very interesting to see what these 2 will do
98l really trying to get its act together and looks to be shaping up very well now
99 seems to be heading the same direction that opal took if the tracks are correct..maybe the Lord decided to give me some rain for my birthday!
620. underthunder 5:15 AM EDT on October 15, 2007 Hide this comment.
99 seems to be heading the same direction that opal took if the tracks are correct..maybe the Lord decided to give me some rain for my birthday!


How can you tell that it will take a track like that, or a track at all? I pretty much see this thing hitting the Yucatan and dying. Don't expect such a large b-day present... :)
Good morning folks! 99L looks to be over land...98L seems a little better organized since the COC seems to be trying to tuck itself under the convection from the east side.
I was just going by the computer models...it's not my guess...it's theirs...
624. beell
Morning,
Here ya go IKE-from this corner of the world:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 1.60 INCHES FAR EAST
TO BETWEEN 1.80 INCHES AND 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE. THESE VERY HIGH OCTOBER
VALUES ARE SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE THREAT OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. CURRENT THINKING HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS THREAT COMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST. PLAN ON
MENTIONING 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. WE WILL NEED TO
ALSO WATCH SOME OF OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES FOR THE POSSIBLE
SETUP OF TRAINING. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS TODAY NORTH AND WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES FAR SOUTHEAST. SPC HAS THEIR DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK
AREA JUST CLIPPING THE NORTHERN EDGES OF OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER. FOR
NOW...PREFER TO NOT MENTION SEVERE IN OUR FORECAST UP NORTH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND LET THE DAY SHIFT EXAMINE A COMPLETE
SET OF MODELS AND GET AT LEAST ONE MORE SPC DAY ONE FORECAST. AS THE
CENTRAL U.S. STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE RAINS LIFTS OUT ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT MUCH LESS RAINFALL COVERAGE FOR OUR AREA. THE NEXT
FORECAST PROBLEM COMES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS REMAIN
STUBBORNLY CONSISTENT ON THEIR DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE NAM SURGES DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE NOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHWARD
AND NORTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THE GFS KEEPS THIS SURGE
OF MOISTURE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE AT IAH FOR WEDNESDAY
CLEARLY SHOWS THESE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH 90% POPS AND A HIGH OF
80 FROM THE NAM AND 10% POPS AND A HIGH OF 90 FROM THE GFS. NOT REALLY
SURE WHICH MODEL TO BELIEVE IN AT THIS TIME...
SO WILL STICK WITH OUR
CURRENT 30% POPS AND ALLOW FOR FUTURE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD IF
THE NAM LOOKS MORE REALISTIC OR DOWNWARD IF THE GFS PANS OUT
BIG Convection starting to fire up with
"The Sleeping Giant" Now. If we start To See
Some Spin Game's On For atleast a TD.

and besides...my husband said not to expect anything for my birthday this year..because I never used what he gave me for my birthday last year...
98l if it gets to stay in the water could become trouble . also it looks like the bahammas system is starting to show up now as most of the models have been showing the last three days as it heads twoards fla . anither watcher here
628. IKE
TropicalNonsense...the "sleeping giant" is over the Yucatan...the satellite picture you posted was for 98L...the system approaching Nicaragua and Guatemala.
The area is so broad who Knows IKE. ((LOL))
where did everyone just come from lol what you guys think about the bahamma blob thats been called by most models this week and finally is showing up thanks
Good morning all.
Quick check in before off to wrangle kids and herd cats. No break in drouth in sight. Oh well, " Looks like a great day for the Irish; Too bad we're Scots" as my DDD (Dear Departed Dad) used to say.
633. beell
IKE knows, TN
morning Folks. I see we have a few things to watch today. I also noticed the Navy has 98 and 99 but SSD only has a 98 floater. Wierd.

Anyways, I'll be here most of the day
Hey there boner. Another day in the tropics. Wish I was there. Leeward or windwards not Central Americ. The west coast of Latin America has been getting pounded with heavy rains.
Good morning: But Dosen't it look like 98L is running into land very soon?
637. beell
Moisture still trying to return into the Eastern GOM. Would vote for the GFS solution as a wag right now for 99l.
Stormybil-the Bahamas area would be worth watching. Sfc flow still out of the NE but may be in the process of changing to SE/SSE w/approaching front
Good Morning...the low associated with 99L is dissipating.

98L window of development is closing as it forecasted to slam into Central America but pulsing some thunderstorms this morning.


And something bay form near the Bahamas associated with a stalled out stationary boundary, but upper winds are currently unfavorable..
639. beell
Off to pound salt
G'Day
right thanks beel also the high is going to weaken and the trof will push back to the north over fla dragging whatever the bahammas blob forms into .

98l is called not likely to develope

99l is called a fav . for development
641. beell
your assesment seems like a good place to leave it for now stormy. 99l as a hoped for rainmaker.
see ya bud.




TD 15E

I have a question.. what the heck is this circulation and where did it come from???




looks centered about 36N41W I cant spot anything on the sat loops or discussion pages. Alot of clean 30 to 35knt winds
643. Bonedog 7:07 AM AST on October 15, 2007 Hide this comment.
I have a question.. what the heck is this circulation and where did it come from???


Extratropical Low...formed along a frontal wave late last week. a 48 hr loop showed TD 15 was absorbed by the frontal wave.
looking at last nights pass it wasnt impressive at all compared to todays pass

ok gotcha weather456 I didnt know where it came from. Looks impressive non the less LOL
NB: Not the location of pressure troughs and ridges....The map below is the location thermal features (based on temperature).

Thermal Trough...An elongated area of low temperatures relative to its surroundings.

Thermal Ridge....An elongated area of high temperatures relative to its surroundings.

Thermal Low - A region of low temperatures relative to its surroundings.


Does anyone know about this salt water theory?

How can Dr. Gray be talking about this and no one brings it up?


From AP yesterday...

October 14, 2007

AP


ONE of the world's foremost meteorologists has called the theory that helped Al Gore share the Nobel Peace Prize "ridiculous" and the product of "people who don't understand how the atmosphere works".

Dr William Gray, a pioneer in the science of seasonal hurricane forecasts, told a packed lecture hall at the University of North Carolina that humans were not responsible for the warming of the earth.

His comments came on the same day that the Nobel committee honoured Mr Gore for his work in support of the link between humans and global warming.

"We're brainwashing our children," said Dr Gray, 78, a long-time professor at Colorado State University. "They're going to the Gore movie [An Inconvenient Truth] and being fed all this. It's ridiculous."

At his first appearance since the award was announced in Oslo, Mr Gore said: "We have to quickly find a way to change the world's consciousness about exactly what we're facing."

Mr Gore shared the Nobel prize with the United Nations climate panel for their work in helping to galvanise international action against global warming.

But Dr Gray, whose annual forecasts of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes are widely publicised, said a natural cycle of ocean water temperatures - related to the amount of salt in ocean water - was responsible for the global warming that he acknowledges has taken place.

However, he said, that same cycle meant a period of cooling would begin soon and last for several years.

"We'll look back on all of this in 10 or 15 years and realise how foolish it was," Dr Gray said.

During his speech to a crowd of about 300 that included meteorology students and a host of professional meteorologists, Dr Gray also said those who had linked global warming to the increased number of hurricanes in recent years were in error.

He cited statistics showing there were 101 hurricanes from 1900 to 1949, in a period of cooler global temperatures, compared to 83 from 1957 to 2006 when the earth warmed.

"The human impact on the atmosphere is simply too small to have a major effect on global temperatures," Dr Gray said.

He said his beliefs had made him an outsider in popular science.

"It bothers me that my fellow scientists are not speaking out against something they know is wrong," he said. "But they also know that they'd never get any grants if they spoke out. I don't care about grants."

Dr Gray says... "...101 hurricanes from 1900 to 1949, in a period of cooler global temperatures, compared to 83 from 1957 to 2006 when the earth warmed."

Could it be when the ocean warms we see more named storms but less hurricanes like we are seeing this year and last year?


652. beell
Would not count on all of 98l's energy to hit land.
Out of Mobile NWS this morning.



MARINE: WINDS ARE JUST SHY OF SCA LEVELS THIS MORNING AND WILL
HEADLINE MARINE WITH SCEC FOR TODAY. WILL MONITOR WIND SPEEDS THIS
MORNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HAVING TO ISSUE A SCA...BUT FOR NOW
WINDS ARE GENERALLY JUST BELOW CRITERIA...WITH SEAS RUNNING 3 TO 5
FEET...ALSO BELOW CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PRIMARILY MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OVER
THE NORTHCENTRAL GULF LATE TUE INTO WED...AND AS A RESULT...BELIEVE
WIND SPEEDS ARE TOO HIGH WITH THAT MODEL SOLUTION. AS A RESULT...
WENT WITH MORE OF A NAM WIND FCST THROUGH MID WEEK AND AND TRIED TO
BLEND SOMEWHAT WITH SURROUNDING MARINE ZONES. NO WIND DATA BEYOND
WEDNESDAY WAS AVAILABLE THIS MORNING...SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
CURRENT FCST AS FOR NOW DON`T EXPECT ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS FCST THINKING FOR WEEKS END. 12/DS
Didn't one of the models hint at development of something near the Bahamas early this week? We need to keep our eyes on that area as it looks interesting as well.
Later
Thermal Low - A region of low temperatures relative to its surroundings.

I was under the impression that a "Thermal low" (like the one that is a fixture over the US desert sw every summer) is a heat-induced area of relatively lower pressure. Correct me if I got it wrong please!
non of the model runs from this morning show anything on the horizon out to 196hrs. Should be a slow week
Wow I haven't been on here for a few days..what is going on with 99L?
The thermal low (also called a heat low) occurs due to intense daytime heating over a region. Typically the synoptic pattern will be benign and the location will be in a dry land climate. Solar radiation strikes the earth's surface and warms the troposphere from below. Dry lands such as those found in semi-arid and arid regions warm up rapidly under sunlight since there is little moisture from the soil or plants to produce evaporational cooling. The very hot air in the boundary layer is inclined to rise since warming air becomes less dense and more buoyant. When air rises over a region the surface pressure will decrease just as pressure would decrease from lifting from a front or mid-latitude cyclone. Typically the dewpoint and relative humidity of the heated air in the boundary layer are low. This reduces the amount of precipitation that occurs from thermal lows. Isolated storms or no storms at all due to a capping inversion are common. Stability aloft reduces the vertical depth of a thermal low. The thermal low will be strongest at the surface but will weaken with height since the air is rising at the greatest rate closer to the earth's surface. A thermal low will tend to stay in the same source region it developed thus it will not transverse great distances like a mid-latitude cyclone will do. The diagram below shows a thermal low in a vertical cross section:

Nice explanationa and graphic, Bone.
Thanks

Morning folks
no problem. Its from a great weather website dedicated to learning all about weather and forcasting

Link
Good explanation. Bone. Thanx.
That's bone...that's one I didnt have. Oh goody..a new toy (laffs)
*Thanks* even
your all welcome. I find I spend hours at a time reading on that website. Very easy reading for begginers and gets into alot of what is talked about here. I have learned loads there.

Check out the top of the page where there is a 10 part series on weather forcasting. You will learn the diffrence between wishcasters and folks that might be a little ahead of the model runs and why they are.
Looks like the dry air's being pulled out of the way enough to allow some of that moisture to move up into the GOM

Link
Bone? As a beginner, I found WW2010 ( http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/home.rxml ) helpful (among a few others)
Link saved, Bone...thanks..I'll have to check that out after work (I'm a reader, as well)
ww2010 is what I started with LOL :) Both are excellent learning sites and should be reccdomended to anyone wanting to learn weather. ww2010 is a great beginner course for all kinds of weather where as weather prediction.com is great for the begginer forcaster or the slightly more advanced beginner that has a some knowledge of weather terminology. Not that it is required but found it helps.
I have to agree. It was ALSO written in easily understood language. I appreciate the links you guys post and listening to your ideas about what's going on. I told Storm the other day, that I often sit with his blogs and fifty bazillion pages open (good thing I have 2 gigs of ram!! lol) trying to SEE what he's saying. I do that with alot of you guys. LOL
I don't expect much out of 98L or 99L anywhere in the CONUS, or for that matter, anywhere at all. Maybe some rain eventually in CONUS but that might even dry up before whatever is left makes it that far north.

Dry and cool here is SW FL this am. Like California weather. :)
Jetstream is another 'general' that's pretty good
have a link for that one Baha? I have not heard of that site
Link

NWS's site
thanks Baha
Most welcome. I was thinking to myself...you HAVE TO have SEEN this!! lol
looks familiar might have looked at it long time ago LOL I have so many links I probably have it in one of the folders
Folders!! Ha! Now THERE'S a novel idea *laughing* I really have to sit down one of these days and ORGANIZE my links!! They've really gotten out of hand!!
Mornin JFV
morning JFV
I had an idea a couple of weeks ago to set up folders for areas of interest...then delete them as they go poof. I have YET to actually sit down and DO this. *laffs*
Nothing on the horizon according to the models.


Link
685. IKE
40-60 knots of shear in the central and northern GOM...and the east coast.....

Link
I have mine organized by weather type Baha.

Severe, Tropical, Winter, Nor'Easter.

I also have general weather ones

NOAA, SPC, HPC, Education, Models, Forcasting

then about a dozen others for more specific things such as sat images and loops

Besides having a ton of RAM I also have 4 screens running at one time coupling two hard drives LOL. My boss always laughs when he walks by my desk. One screen for my job and three for weather or should I say one for work, one for the blog and 2 for weather.
cpaman-

Gray's "salt water" theory is very relevant to tropical cyclone forecasting and SSTs in the tropical Atlantic. It has to do with the Therohaline Cycle in the Atlantic Basin...and I will say that it is likely responsible for most (if not all) of the recent increase in hurricanes since 1995. However, this circulation does NOT explain the increase in GLOBAL mean temperatures associated with Global Warming. Gray is just flat wrong in drawing a connection there.
Is this old TS 15 or a new system? looks impressive even on QS

Morning All...Will be lurking today but things seem very quiet in the tropics (as they should be this time of the year); wondering what Dr. M's 2nd half of October outlook will look like....Pretty quiet also I would think......
Is there a reason the last couple of invests on the WU tropics page don't show up. If you click on the Models diagram, it shows the old invests that carried the same id number. The link shows the correct storm, but when clicked it goes to invests from September. Anyone on here know who to contact to get the correct graphic posted?
read your blog update bonedog,sounds like its going to be an interesting winter.
Yea NE appears to be heading that way
694. SEFL
!
685. IKE 08:58 EDT le 15 octobre 2007
40-60 knots of shear in the central and northern GOM...and the east coast.....

Link

If that does not spell the end is near then i dont know what will...The rest of the tropical atlantic is unfavorable for development.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ESSENTIALLY A
BLOB OF COLD CLOUD TOPS...WITH NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES IN
THE DEEP CONVECTION.


I think the NHC reads this blog... calling storms "blobs"... LOL
I know not tropical related but there was just a 6.8 mag earthquake in New Zeland. Looking at the shake maps there could be moderate/heavy damage to the region



I wouldn't say that the end is near... not based on this:



And looking at this, it is possible that the shear in the Gulf is only temporary, although shear would now have to be about 30 kts below average in order to be favorable (again, below average shear does not mean favorable shear, especially in mid-October, unless it is below 15 kts or so):



Also note that these graphs show the average shear over the indicated area, so there will be spots with higher and lower shear than indicated.
any answer to my 689 post?
STL i meant landfall wise on a significant impact from a major cane.Its still possible to have 1-2 more sheared tropical cyclones.
how many on here pay attention to severe weather. there was quite a bit this weekend. hail fell all over the place with reports of 2 inch and larger in some places. the scary part is this could be just the beginning as a lot of forecasters are predicting that by the end of the week we could see major outbreak in severe weather that is vary unusual for this time of year. looks like this will be the weather to watch and not the tropics.
nevermind. I read the highseas forcast and they mention it as just a Low. I am just wondering because its very close to the last advisory position of TD15 though.
This graph (for tropical Atlantic, including Caribbean, but not Gulf or subtropical Atlantic) clearly shows what determines the start and end of the hurricane season - the start is determined by instability and the end by shear (positive = favorable, negative = unfavorable with 0 as a baseline; from here, a good read on tropical cyclogenesis, also notice that the variables do not line up very well; shear is most favorable in August, when moisture is least favorable, and moisture and instability are most favorable in October, when shear is becoming very hostile - by the end of October shear is about as hostile as it is in early June and by the end of November it actually appears to be nearing its yearly peak):



Notice however that it appears that instability at the start of the season is more important, because hurricanes form into mid-November in an average season, while they don't form until mid-August (same for tropical storms):





701. hurricane23 09:23 EDT le 15 octobre 2007
STL i meant landfall wise on a significant impact from a major cane.Its still possible to have 1-2 more sheared tropical cyclones.


I assume that you mean a major United States landfall, since countries in the Caribbean definately do need to watch until the end of November (example, and this came after several weeks of no activity).
ecf I watched that all weekend the midwest severe. Actually though at this time of year it is normal to have severe weather because of the fact of the diffrences in the airmasses. Warm moist gulf air and cold polar air, perfect ingrediants for thunderstorms.

The spc has issued a outlook watch box for the ohio valley because of the front moving through

DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO ENOUGH AGREEMENT -- AT LEAST FOR DAY 4 /THU.
OCT. 18/ -- THAT SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO INTRODUCE A SEVERE
AREA CENTERED ON THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME DEGREE OF INTENSITY/TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE MAIN FEATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
DAY 4. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH TO ALLOW STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. MODELS
FORECAST STRONG SHEAR /50 TO 60 KT SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS/...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.
685. IKE 12:58 PM GMT on October 15, 2007
40-60 knots of shear in the central and northern GOM...and the east coast.....

Link




Yep, but 48-60 hours out there's 0-5knts across the GOMEX...
Lenny was the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded in November, and quite unusual in that it moved west-to-east across the Caribbean.It was the first time such a trajectory had been seen in 113 years of hurricane observations in the Atlantic/Caribbean basin


that is odd!!
708. IKE
NEW BLOG!
bonedog,that was where TD15 was,it was absorbed into that system.