WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Two Atlantic storms are near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:23 PM GMT on August 31, 2007

The tropical wave about 200 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands, 94L, continues to become better organized, and will probably become a tropical depression today. This system has the potential to become a hurricane in the Caribbean Sea early next week. Visible satellite loops show a steadily organizing system, with low level spiral bands trying to form, and upper level outflow to the north, visible as cirrus clouds wafting from west to east. QuikSCAT winds from 5:36am EDT this morning showed that 94L's circulation was not well-defined yet. Sustained winds of 25-35 knots were observed, and some wind gusts to 55 mph are probably occurring on the south side of 94L's circulation. Water vapor satellite loops show the presence of a large amount of dry air to the north of 94L, but the storm has generated enough thunderstorm activity to moisten the surrounding environment, which should speed development. Wind shear is a favorable 5-10 knots over 94L, and may decrease some by Saturday, allowing further development. As seen in the latest microwave satellite image of 94L (Figure 1), the heaviest thunderstorm activity is on the south side of the system. Trinidad and Tobago will get the heaviest rains from 94L, although the northern coast of South America plus the island of Grenada could also see some heavy rains.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of 94L taken at 6:07am EDT 8/31/07. Image credit: N avy NRL Research Lab.

None of the reliable computer models forecast that 94L will develop into a tropical depression, but it look like the models will be wrong on this. The usually unreliable Canadian model appears to have the best idea on what 94L will do. This model gradually strengthens 94L as it passes along the northern coast of South America. By Monday night, the Canadian model has 94L approaching the Honduras/Nicaragua border. Yesterday afternoon's run of the GFDL model had a similar solution, and predicted 94L would be a Category 2 hurricane at that time. The future strength of 94L depends critically upon how close it passes to the South American coast over the next two days. The Southeastern Caribbean just north of the South American coast is a climatologically unfavorable region for tropical cyclones, as they tend to pull dry continental air off of South America into their circulations. Many tropical cyclones passing through this region of the Caribbean die or become severely weakened. If 94L does survive and pass into the Central Caribbean, a more northwesterly turn to threaten Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is not out of the question.

The Hurricane Hunters will be in the storm this afternoon. The NOAA jet's first flight will be Sunday morning.

Links to follow today:
Guadaloupe radar
Barbados weather
Trinidad Crown Point weather
Piarco, Trinidad weather
Grenada weather

96L
An area of low pressure ("96L") a few hundred miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts is close to tropical depression status. The storm has a well-defined surface circulation, but strong upper-level winds from the southwest have kept heavy thunderstorm activity confined to 96L's northeast side. Low-level spiral bands on its northeast side are impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket today, as seen on long-range radar out of Boston. QuikSCAT saw winds as high as 30 knots (35 mph) in this morning's pass. The combined wind and pressure plot from buoy 44004, 200 nm east of Cape May, NJ, shows the passage of 96L nicely.

96L has about a day before increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures convert the storm into an extratropical system. The eastern tip of Nova Scotia and the south coast of Newfoundland could experience tropical storm-force winds from this extratropical system over the weekend.

Coast of Africa
None of the computer models are forecasting the development of a tropical depression during the coming week off the coast of Africa.

I'll post an update later today.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

45kts??? That;s a miracle
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 5:48 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Well looking at the latest GFS 94L still looks like a West to WNW mover through the Caribbean. Dont see anything steering this thing North. Ridge over the Eastern U.S weakens a bit early in the week, but then another Ridge strenghtens over the East coast by the end of the week



Sounds good just please give us afternoon T-Storms in FL, don't need to cook all summer again lol:)
Link

Posted By: TerraNova at 5:51 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Does anybody have a link to where they would post the vortex message if one is issued? Appreciate
we may have Felix the cat here
Hi, everybody. I have a couple of minutes to check on 94L before having to run back out.

StormW, if tracking takes a NW turn in the short-term, how do you see the ridge, troughs, etc. coming into play for the long-term tracking? Do you think a short jog to the north now will make a large impact on the track further out?
thanks
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 15:21Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previously corrected observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 301)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 26

Taz what you just posted was for dean. I just decoded it.
Might be a 2pm advisory after all.
509. LLJ
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 17:54Z
Date: August 31, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 15

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
17:44:30 11.57N 58.62W 966.5 mb 391 m 1010.5 mb From 64 (ENE) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) - -
17:45:00 11.57N 58.60W 966.4 mb 393 m 1010.6 mb From 71 (ENE) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) - -
17:45:30 11.55N 58.58W 966.5 mb 392 m 1010.7 mb From 74 (ENE) at 11 kts (12.6 mph) 11 kts (~ 12.6 mph) - -
17:46:00 11.53N 58.55W 966.4 mb 393 m 1010.7 mb From 78 (ENE/E) at 9 kts (10.3 mph) 10 kts (~ 11.5 mph) - -
17:46:30 11.52N 58.53W 966.5 mb 391 m 1010.6 mb From 78 (ENE/E) at 7 kts (8.0 mph) 7 kts (~ 8.0 mph) - -
17:47:00 11.52N 58.52W 966.4 mb 392 m 1010.8 mb From 94 (E) at 2 kts (2.3 mph) 4 kts (~ 4.6 mph) - -
17:47:30 11.50N 58.48W 966.8 mb 388 m 1010.6 mb From 95 (E) at 7 kts (8.0 mph) 8 kts (~ 9.2 mph) - -
17:48:00 11.48N 58.47W 966.3 mb 393 m 1010.7 mb From 99 (E) at 8 kts (9.2 mph) 8 kts (~ 9.2 mph) - -
17:48:30 11.47N 58.45W 966.5 mb 391 m 1010.9 mb From 93 (E) at 7 kts (8.0 mph) 8 kts (~ 9.2 mph) - -
17:49:00 11.45N 58.42W 966.4 mb 392 m 1010.7 mb From 49 (NE) at 8 kts (9.2 mph) 8 kts (~ 9.2 mph) - -
17:49:30 11.45N 58.40W 966.4 mb 391 m 1010.6 mb From 23 (NNE) at 5 kts (5.8 mph) 9 kts (~ 10.3 mph) - -
17:50:00 11.43N 58.38W 966.8 mb 387 m 1010.6 mb From 285 (WNW) at 5 kts (5.8 mph) 5 kts (~ 5.8 mph) - -
17:50:30 11.42N 58.35W 966.6 mb 388 m 1010.9 mb From 10 (N) at 4 kts (4.6 mph) 7 kts (~ 8.0 mph) - -
17:51:00 11.40N 58.33W 966.3 mb 391 m 1010.9 mb From 346 (NNW) at 8 kts (9.2 mph) 9 kts (~ 10.3 mph) - -
17:51:30 11.38N 58.32W 966.4 mb 391 m 1011.2 mb From 300 (WNW) at 10 kts (11.5 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) - -
17:52:00 11.37N 58.28W 966.6 mb 389 m 1011.1 mb From 249 (WSW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) - -
17:52:30 11.37N 58.27W 966.6 mb 387 m 1010.8 mb From 246 (WSW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) - -
17:53:00 11.35N 58.23W 966.5 mb 389 m 1010.7 mb From 239 (WSW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) - -
17:53:30 11.33N 58.22W 966.3 mb 391 m 1010.8 mb From 229 (SW) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) - -
17:54:00 11.32N 58.18W 966.8 mb 387 m 1010.7 mb From 219 (SW) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) - -
At 17:44:30Z (first observation), the observation was 125 miles (201 km) to the SSE (148) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 17:54:00Z (last observation), the observation was 156 miles (251 km) to the SE (142) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

That 45 kt reading is from Dean. They haven't put out a vortex message for 94L yet. When they do, then it will be on that link.
Pull north 94L! I still see its center around 11.2N or so.
000
URNT12 KNHC 221521 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/15:10:00Z
B. 20 deg 30 min N
096 deg 35 min W
C. NA mb 2883 m
D. 45 kt
E. 328 deg 018 nm
F. 047 deg 083 kt
G. 331 deg 028 nm
H. 974 mb
I. 13 C/ 3087 m
J. 15 C/ 3090 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE-SE
M. C18
N. 12345/07
O. 0.31 / 02 nm
P. AF301 1704A DEAN OB 26 CCA
MAX FL WIND 94 KT N QUAD 13:57:10 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 88 KT NE QUAD 15:21:10 Z
Posted By: Tazmanian at 5:53 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Link


Thats Dean
Is that correct...is it further south than what it used to be??...
Stormchaser2007; taz was giving me the link to where they would post a new vortex message. That one that you see it the last vortex message issued for Dean. If they issue one for 94L it will be replaced.
Closed circulation has been found and upgrade is very likely here this afternoon.TD/TS
518. IKE
I see west winds on that message.
Hey Katadman. SW is out picking up his son, but I think I can answer your question...

The ridge is expected to weaken a little bit, and depending on how far south that weakness is, 94L could respond by moving WNW or NW for a short period of time.

As of right now, that weakness does not look like it will hold for very long (36hrs at most) before the ridge builds back in over 94L, thus forcing it WWD again.
West winds there LLJ?
000
AXNT20 KNHC 311758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 18W MOVING W 15 KT WITH A 1008
MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. LOW AMPLITUDE LOW/MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN
50W-61W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN
54W-60W.
522. LLJ
Lot of West winds.
Posted By: WeatherfanPR at 3:15 AM GMT on August 30, 2007.

I think 94L it's still alive and it's gonna give us a big surprise!!!just wait and see!!!

Posted By: WeatherfanPR at 3:22 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.

I think that we could see a weak tropical storm moving south of Puerto Rico by Saturday or Sunday.


I should say now that I think "Felix" it's gonna be a Hurricane when it passes far south of Puerto Rico.

My best thoughs and prayers for those who are gonna be affected by Felix.
There we go!

Vortex message.
Sorry guys I thought it was a new post. jumped the gun on pasting without reading
People; that vortex message IS NOT FOR 94L.
94L still moving due west apparently with this from update a few minutes ago:

Tropical wave is along 57w S of 18w moving W 15 kt with a 1008
mb low along the wave near 11n.
Looks like it will be a very close pass to SA so we will have to see how much the interaction with the land weakens the "depression - storm", if any, and if it will slow it down in any way...It will all be a "timing" issue as to highs and ridges/weaknesses as to future track....for the next two days, westward seems appropriate....
About five yrs ago we had a wave that never developed eventually met its end in the Yucatan. Up to 50mph
530. LLJ
This could be close to the center........11.42N 58.35W

1010.9 mb

From the N at ~ 4.6 mph)


Still just the first pass....but the West winds happened right after that OB.
The case for strong ridge building behind 94l.
First image is from about 3AM CDT early this morning.
Second is from about 10AM CDT this morning.
Check out the pressure isobars nw of Africa in the Cent Atlantic.
Check out the southward migration of the ITCZ.

imo, this southwestward pressure has been driving 94L west. I, like many others do not expect this to last forever.
Another blogger stated that it was not so much the strength of the ridge but (for us and US) where the western edge is when 94L approaches.
This would be a true statement for me.

We may even see a e-w ridge building westward across or at least into the GOMEX in a couple of days.
But we're at the time of year when this setup cannot last-hence a consensus for wnw or nw turn. Then a ridge weakness/CONUS trof will become the player.
Started to post this earlier but it seemed like such a big load of crap to dump on the blog, but I couldn't help myself...


Sfc1

Sfc2
The islanders are going to have to move fast to prepare.
People; that vortex message IS NOT FOR 94L.
Funny.
SW wind has been found around 20-25kts so there you have it....
Thanks, Nash.

Is the reformed ridge expected to remain in place long enough to avoid a US landfall?
west wind spotted center around 11.26N 058.23W

The islanders are going to have to move fast to prepare.

That they will as warnings and watches would be issued with the first advisory. At this won't be another dean for the islands.
If it is at 11.0...its going further south....
539. LLJ
Just need the Vortex Message to confirm.
May hit/brush SA at 11.26.
541. IKE
It's at least a TD.

Look for a special statement soon.
This is a TD/TS for sure im my opinion.
TN, I just added the NHC page that has reccon data on it to the
Quick Links page.

Still only has the Dean vortex message up though.
545. LLJ
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 18:04Z
Date: August 31, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 16

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
17:54:30 11.32N 58.17W 966.1 mb 393 m 1010.8 mb From 224 (SW) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) - -
17:55:00 11.35N 58.15W 966.8 mb 384 m 1010.5 mb From 213 (SSW/SW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) - -
17:55:30 11.37N 58.15W 966.6 mb 384 m 1010.3 mb From 214 (SW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
17:56:00 11.40N 58.15W 966.2 mb 387 m 1010.0 mb From 217 (SW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) - -
17:56:30 11.43N 58.15W 966.9 mb 382 m 1010.1 mb From 213 (SSW/SW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) - -
17:57:00 11.45N 58.13W 966.4 mb 386 m 1010.1 mb From 201 (SSW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) - -
17:57:30 11.48N 58.13W 966.5 mb 386 m 1010.1 mb From 178 (S) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) - -
17:58:00 11.52N 58.13W 966.4 mb 388 m 1010.1 mb From 147 (SSE) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) - -
17:58:30 11.53N 58.13W 966.5 mb 387 m 1010.3 mb From 153 (SSE) at 11 kts (12.6 mph) 11 kts (~ 12.6 mph) - -
17:59:00 11.57N 58.13W 966.4 mb 388 m 1010.2 mb From 148 (SSE) at 11 kts (12.6 mph) 12 kts (~ 13.8 mph) - -
17:59:30 11.60N 58.13W 966.5 mb 387 m 1010.3 mb From 132 (SE) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) - -
18:00:00 11.62N 58.13W 966.5 mb 386 m 1010.1 mb From 110 (ESE) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) - -
18:00:30 11.65N 58.15W 966.2 mb 390 m 1010.2 mb From 85 (E) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
18:01:00 11.63N 58.18W 966.8 mb 383 m 1010.0 mb From 72 (ENE) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) - -
18:01:30 11.62N 58.20W 966.5 mb 386 m 1010.1 mb From 76 (ENE) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) - -
18:02:00 11.60N 58.23W 966.5 mb 386 m 1010.2 mb From 87 (E) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) - -
18:02:30 11.58N 58.25W 966.4 mb 388 m 1010.3 mb From 92 (E) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) - -
18:03:00 11.58N 58.28W 966.6 mb 386 m 1010.2 mb From 80 (E) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
18:03:30 11.57N 58.30W 966.3 mb 390 m 1010.2 mb From 71 (ENE) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) - -
18:04:00 11.55N 58.33W 966.6 mb 387 m 1010.3 mb From 67 (ENE) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) - -
At 17:54:30Z (first observation), the observation was 157 miles (252 km) to the SE (142) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 18:04:00Z (last observation), the observation was 137 miles (221 km) to the SE (141) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

Hey there Adrian! How are you my friend?
Well I have to admit after look at that visisble loop, that i would be pretty suprise if they dont find a closed circulation or at least 25 mph winds but i wont be dissapointed cuz Dean was enough
548. SLU
Closed Circulation. Now time to determine how strong the winds are. For sure we have AT LEAST a tropical depression.
It was a joke, LMAO
Is there anyone here who keeps a particular eye on the West Pacific and Indian Ocean? Please drop me a PM. Thanks.
cruiserlog.com
LOL
We're in Trinidad and it is dumping buckets of rain now.
its a joke

LOL nolesjeff you might want to put that in bold.

The NHC vortex data page gets updated quicker than the WU site.

As soon as the NHC receives the message it will replace the old one that is currently there. Keep an eye on the date next to letter "A".
JP~ I don't know what i's thinking.. center around 11.45N 58.40W.
Once these things start spinning bad things can happen Hopefully only slow strengthening.
556. LLJ
Or there's this one: Link
Cruiserlog~ I update info on that in my blog
Sorry Trinigal, your in a developing storm, but at least you shouldn't get the worst of it.
I don't think we have TS Felix yet.

TD6 is what we have.

Could be a TS tonight if it can continue to build around the COC.
561. LLJ
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 18:14Z
Date: August 31, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 17

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
18:04:30 11.52N 58.35W 966.4 mb 389 m 1010.4 mb From 75 (ENE) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) - -
18:05:00 11.50N 58.37W 966.5 mb 389 m 1010.4 mb From 66 (ENE) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) - -
18:05:30 11.48N 58.38W 966.4 mb 390 m 1010.6 mb From 58 (ENE) at 11 kts (12.6 mph) 12 kts (~ 13.8 mph) - -
18:06:00 11.45N 58.40W 966.5 mb 390 m 1010.8 mb From 76 (ENE) at 7 kts (8.0 mph) 10 kts (~ 11.5 mph) - -
18:06:30 11.43N 58.42W 966.6 mb 388 m 1010.7 mb From 56 (NE/ENE) at 4 kts (4.6 mph) 8 kts (~ 9.2 mph) - -
18:07:00 11.42N 58.43W 966.4 mb 391 m 1010.7 mb From 104 (ESE) at 2 kts (2.3 mph) 4 kts (~ 4.6 mph) - -
18:07:30 11.40N 58.45W 966.4 mb 392 m 1010.9 mb From 194 (SSW) at 3 kts (3.4 mph) 5 kts (~ 5.8 mph) - -
18:08:00 11.37N 58.47W 966.3 mb 393 m 1010.8 mb From 190 (S) at 4 kts (4.6 mph) 5 kts (~ 5.8 mph) - -
18:08:30 11.35N 58.48W 966.6 mb 391 m 1010.8 mb From 184 (S) at 5 kts (5.8 mph) 7 kts (~ 8.0 mph) - -
18:09:00 11.33N 58.50W 966.5 mb 392 m 1010.8 mb From 184 (S) at 3 kts (3.4 mph) 4 kts (~ 4.6 mph) - -
18:09:30 11.32N 58.52W 966.5 mb 392 m 1010.8 mb From 202 (SSW) at 3 kts (3.4 mph) 4 kts (~ 4.6 mph) - -
18:10:00 11.30N 58.53W 966.4 mb 392 m 1010.7 mb From 211 (SSW) at 5 kts (5.8 mph) 5 kts (~ 5.8 mph) - -
18:10:30 11.27N 58.55W 966.5 mb 391 m 1010.7 mb From 236 (SW/WSW) at 4 kts (4.6 mph) 5 kts (~ 5.8 mph) - -
18:11:00 11.25N 58.57W 966.6 mb 390 m 1010.7 mb From 266 (W) at 4 kts (4.6 mph) 5 kts (~ 5.8 mph) - -
18:11:30 11.27N 58.58W 966.3 mb 392 m 1010.5 mb From 173 (S) at 2 kts (2.3 mph) 3 kts (~ 3.4 mph) - -
18:12:00 11.28N 58.58W 966.4 mb 392 m 1010.6 mb From 162 (SSE) at 3 kts (3.4 mph) 4 kts (~ 4.6 mph) - -
18:12:30 11.32N 58.58W 966.5 mb 391 m 1010.6 mb From 184 (S) at 5 kts (5.8 mph) 5 kts (~ 5.8 mph) - -
18:13:00 11.33N 58.58W 966.5 mb 391 m 1010.6 mb From 182 (S) at 7 kts (8.0 mph) 7 kts (~ 8.0 mph) - -
18:13:30 11.37N 58.58W 966.5 mb 391 m 1010.7 mb From 182 (S) at 9 kts (10.3 mph) 9 kts (~ 10.3 mph) - -
18:14:00 11.40N 58.58W 966.5 mb 389 m 1010.4 mb From 149 (SSE) at 9 kts (10.3 mph) 9 kts (~ 10.3 mph) - -
At 18:04:30Z (first observation), the observation was 138 miles (222 km) to the SE (142) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 18:14:00Z (last observation), the observation was 136 miles (219 km) to the SSE (149) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

Who needs 94L, I'm getting a squall right now in Kissimmee :)gusting as high as 94L too.
Recon is still investigating the system...
what are your local weather guys or gals saying trinigal?
Oh nooo not more rain for TEXAS! We don't need anymore rain and we just keep getting rain, rain, rain! This is a little off topic, but can someone explain to me how a low creats so many thunderstorms?
We're in Trinidad and it is dumping buckets of rain now.

Is it just raining real hard or is there intense/frequent lightning as well?
94L looks like it has real good structure on visible satellite-if it's not a storm yet, it sure looks like it will be.
I know that many of you frown upon accuweather, but they mentioned a wave around 29W, which I'm assuming is the blob around 35W now. Is this correct?
asdgwdg

...according to this pic, there's frequent lightning on the western edge of the system which could mean rapid intensification.
Just one more comment on global models and cyclogenesis and then I promise to drop it. Generally, global models are good at larger systems but are not good at cyclogenesis. As a cyclogenesis tool, a global model is useless if you can see the storms developing on the satellite images before the model picks it up. The CMC is the only model that consistently picks out areas where cyclogenesis may occur BEFORE these areas become evident from satellite images. This consistency comes at a cost. That cost is a lot of false positives. Just as in medical testing, you have to balance off the false positives against the advantage of early warning. I think the CMC is doing the job it was designed to do and, given the present state of weather model development, I think it is doing a great job. JMVHO
where is everyone
572. LLJ
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 18:24Z
Date: August 31, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 18

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
18:14:30 11.42N 58.60W 966.5 mb 389 m 1010.4 mb From 140 (SE) at 10 kts (11.5 mph) 10 kts (~ 11.5 mph) - -
18:15:00 11.45N 58.60W 966.2 mb 392 m 1010.5 mb From 142 (SE) at 11 kts (12.6 mph) 12 kts (~ 13.8 mph) - -
18:15:30 11.47N 58.60W 966.9 mb 385 m 1010.4 mb From 137 (SE) at 8 kts (9.2 mph) 9 kts (~ 10.3 mph) - -
18:16:00 11.50N 58.62W 966.3 mb 391 m 1010.4 mb From 118 (ESE) at 8 kts (9.2 mph) 9 kts (~ 10.3 mph) - -
18:16:30 11.53N 58.62W 966.4 mb 391 m 1010.5 mb From 84 (E) at 8 kts (9.2 mph) 10 kts (~ 11.5 mph) - -
18:17:00 11.53N 58.60W 966.6 mb 389 m 1010.9 mb From 44 (NE) at 8 kts (9.2 mph) 9 kts (~ 10.3 mph) - -
18:17:30 11.53N 58.57W 966.2 mb 393 m 1010.5 mb From 66 (ENE) at 6 kts (6.9 mph) 7 kts (~ 8.0 mph) - -
18:18:00 11.53N 58.55W 966.6 mb 388 m 1010.4 mb From 81 (E) at 10 kts (11.5 mph) 10 kts (~ 11.5 mph) - -
18:18:30 11.52N 58.52W 966.4 mb 389 m 1010.3 mb From 107 (ESE) at 6 kts (6.9 mph) 7 kts (~ 8.0 mph) - -
18:19:00 11.52N 58.50W 966.5 mb 388 m 1010.3 mb From 93 (E) at 6 kts (6.9 mph) 7 kts (~ 8.0 mph) - -
18:19:30 11.50N 58.47W 966.4 mb 389 m 1010.4 mb From 116 (ESE) at 7 kts (8.0 mph) 8 kts (~ 9.2 mph) - -
18:20:00 11.50N 58.45W 966.6 mb 386 m 1010.3 mb From 124 (SE) at 6 kts (6.9 mph) 8 kts (~ 9.2 mph) - -
18:20:30 11.48N 58.42W 966.4 mb 388 m 1010.2 mb From 132 (SE) at 5 kts (5.8 mph) 6 kts (~ 6.9 mph) - -
18:21:00 11.48N 58.40W 966.6 mb 385 m 1010.1 mb From 82 (E) at 5 kts (5.8 mph) 7 kts (~ 8.0 mph) - -
18:21:30 11.48N 58.37W 966.4 mb 387 m 1010.2 mb From 251 (WSW) at 4 kts (4.6 mph) 9 kts (~ 10.3 mph) - -
18:22:00 11.45N 58.37W 966.4 mb 386 m 1010.1 mb From 276 (W) at 7 kts (8.0 mph) 9 kts (~ 10.3 mph) - -
18:22:30 11.43N 58.35W 966.6 mb 384 m 1010.1 mb From 259 (W) at 9 kts (10.3 mph) 10 kts (~ 11.5 mph) - -
18:23:00 11.40N 58.35W 966.6 mb 384 m 1010.2 mb From 244 (WSW) at 9 kts (10.3 mph) 10 kts (~ 11.5 mph) - -
18:23:30 11.38N 58.35W 966.3 mb 386 m 1010.1 mb From 251 (WSW) at 9 kts (10.3 mph) 12 kts (~ 13.8 mph) - -
18:24:00 11.35N 58.33W 966.6 mb 384 m 1010.5 mb From 249 (WSW) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) - -
At 18:14:30Z (first observation), the observation was 134 miles (216 km) to the SSE (149) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 18:24:00Z (last observation), the observation was 148 miles (239 km) to the SE (144) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

Dropsonde Observations
Storm Name: INVEST (FFL)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF305
Observation Number: 02
Time: 1600Z
Latitude: 16.3N
Longitude: 63W
#NAME?
Surface: 1014 mb; Temp: 83F; Dewpt: 77F; ENE (75) @ 23 mph
1000mb height: 420 ft; Temp: 82F; Dewpt: 75F; E (80) @ 24 mph
925mb height: 2674 ft; Temp: 73F; Dewpt: 67F; E (100) @ 24 mph
850mb height: 5082 ft; Temp: 66F; Dewpt: 58F; ESE (115) @ 25 mph
700mb height: 10466 ft; Temp: 47F; Dewpt: 34F; ESE (110) @ 26 mph
500mb height: 19357 ft; Temp: 21F; Dewpt: -25F; E (100) @ 13 mph
400mb height: Unavailable
300mb height: Unavailable
250mb height: Unavailable
200mb height: Unavailable
SPL 1633N06306W 1623 MBL WND 08522 AEV 00000 DLM WND 10518
013418 WL150 08021 083 =

1014mb winds: ENE (75) @ 23 mph
985mb winds: E (85) @ 26 mph
896mb winds: E (100) @ 22 mph
850mb winds: ESE (115) @ 25 mph
691mb winds: ESE (110) @ 25 mph
651mb winds: E (80) @ 18 mph
611mb winds: E (100) @ 17 mph
592mb winds: SE (135) @ 13 mph
580mb winds: ESE (105) @ 14 mph
572mb winds: ESE (115) @ 13 mph
529mb winds: E (95) @ 12 mph
496mb winds: E (100) @ 13 mph
468mb winds: SE (125) @ 13 mph
460mb winds: ESE (110) @ 16 mph
438mb winds: ESE (105) @ 17 mph
410mb winds: SE (125) @ 18 mph
#VALUE!


I think InAccuWeather has it TD Six because of the STDS.
So is 1010 MB the lowest pressure found so far?
576. DDR
Here in trinidad they issued a severe weather warning earlier,shes right its raining alot in north Trinidad
what are your local weather guys or gals saying trinigal?

interestingly enough, not much. Most people here are unaware of this storm. It's a national holiday today and I wonder if the local meteorologists are out celebrating.

This is about the best of it:
The approaching tropical wave is quickly gaining strength as it approaches Tobago.We can expect in Trinidad heavy showers and gusty winds .In Tobago the winds can be approaching that of a tropical storm

I'm with you storm will survive, where is everyone?
We're here... Just doing other things as well.
hello TD 6

94L - T2.0/2.0
TerraNova, can i have a link to the page of that lighting data
After just looking at the Visible Loop of 94L...if this is not at least a depression, I don't know what is.
Yep we had some rain today first time in a month e cen fl.
Calm here in northwestern Trinidad (Chagaraumas) still, just drizzle rain off and on. But expecting things to get ugly here among the yachts (south winds are trecherous here).
JP ~ the west coast seabreeze looks a little agressive today, east coast is just starting here. Gonna make for an east coast pile up later.
I was bookkeeping and made a mistake. Bookkeeping and blogging do not go well together. One's gotta suffer--either the monetary amounts or my thinking that Henrietta was in the Atlantic--LOL!

Speaking of multitasking--national holiday and storm forming so close to land is not good
588. LLJ
OK.... we have some windage now:


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 18:34Z
Date: August 31, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 19

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
18:24:30 11.33N 58.33W 966.3 mb 387 m 1010.5 mb From 261 (W) at 9 kts (10.3 mph) 11 kts (~ 12.6 mph) - -
18:25:00 11.30N 58.33W 966.9 mb 383 m 1010.5 mb From 240 (WSW) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) - -
18:25:30 11.28N 58.32W 966.4 mb 388 m 1010.4 mb From 240 (WSW) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) - -
18:26:00 11.25N 58.32W 966.5 mb 388 m 1010.4 mb From 241 (WSW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) - -
18:26:30 11.23N 58.30W 966.4 mb 388 m 1010.2 mb From 244 (WSW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) - -
18:27:00 11.20N 58.30W 966.8 mb 385 m 1010.3 mb From 239 (WSW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) - -
18:27:30 11.18N 58.30W 966.4 mb 389 m 1010.4 mb From 239 (WSW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) - -
18:28:00 11.15N 58.28W 966.4 mb 389 m 1010.5 mb From 239 (WSW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) - -
18:28:30 11.13N 58.28W 966.6 mb 387 m 1010.5 mb From 241 (WSW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) - -
18:29:00 11.10N 58.27W 966.4 mb 389 m 1010.4 mb From 241 (WSW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
18:29:30 11.08N 58.27W 966.5 mb 389 m 1010.5 mb From 240 (WSW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
18:30:00 11.05N 58.27W 966.5 mb 389 m 1010.6 mb From 241 (WSW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
18:30:30 11.03N 58.25W 966.5 mb 390 m 1010.7 mb From 240 (WSW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) - -
18:31:00 11.02N 58.25W 966.3 mb 392 m 1010.7 mb From 241 (WSW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
18:31:30 10.98N 58.23W 966.6 mb 388 m 1010.6 mb From 238 (WSW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
18:32:00 10.97N 58.23W 966.4 mb 391 m 1010.7 mb From 238 (WSW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
18:32:30 10.93N 58.22W 966.5 mb 390 m 1010.7 mb From 235 (SW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) - -
18:33:00 10.92N 58.22W 966.5 mb 390 m 1010.7 mb From 237 (WSW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) - -
18:33:30 10.88N 58.20W 966.4 mb 391 m 1010.7 mb From 235 (SW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
18:34:00 10.87N 58.20W 966.4 mb 392 m 1010.9 mb From 234 (SW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) - -
At 18:24:30Z (first observation), the observation was 150 miles (241 km) to the SE (145) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 18:34:00Z (last observation), the observation was 181 miles (291 km) to the SSE (148) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

TN, not trying to step on any toes..

456 Neat site. Going to have to add it somewhere.
already starting, in SE FL storms are starting to build skyepony.
Posted By: trinigal at 6:29 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.
what are your local weather guys or gals saying trinigal?

interestingly enough, not much. Most people here are unaware of this storm. It's a national holiday today and I wonder if the local meteorologists are out celebrating.


Eric, who is one of the local tv weather men here in Trinidad has apparently made some broadcasts on HAM radio, so he at least is paying attension. Personally I havnt listened to him, as I tend to find his forecasts to be boardline and full of "gloom and doom", he actually reminds me of many of the wishcasters here, always thinking every little blip is going to be the next super storm.
hello TD 6

94L - T2.0/2.0

the T # for 94L is now 2.0 wish would make this a TD
LOL SJ thanks :)

Here's another link I found through hurricanecity:

Radar from Aruba
This TD to be has a case of STD effect. They're finding squaddoosh for winds. No tropical storm until probably tomorrow. Then it will probably come close enough to SA to inhibit development for another 24 hours.
getting some big thunder boomers in sw florida now. Looks like a nasty storm trying to form on our west coast sea breeze
597. SLU
The maximum winds on the south side of the system so far are WSW @ 30mph. This system is moving at 15 - 20mph. so THEORETICALLY the winds on the northern side could be about 45 - 50mph. Will be interesting to see what the recon finds in the nothern quadrant. It is unusual for a TD to have so much wind on the weaker side of the circulation while it is moving that fast. So this system could very well be a tropical storm.
598. LLJ
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 18:44Z
Date: August 31, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 20

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
18:34:30 10.85N 58.18W 966.2 mb 393 m 1010.7 mb From 229 (SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) - -
18:35:00 10.85N 58.15W 966.5 mb 389 m 1010.5 mb From 230 (SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) - -
18:35:30 10.83N 58.12W 966.5 mb 389 m 1010.5 mb From 229 (SW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
18:36:00 10.83N 58.10W 966.5 mb 389 m 1010.6 mb From 228 (SW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
18:36:30 10.82N 58.07W 966.4 mb 391 m 1010.6 mb From 229 (SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) - -
18:37:00 10.82N 58.03W 966.5 mb 391 m 1010.8 mb From 229 (SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) - -
18:37:30 10.82N 58.02W 966.4 mb 392 m 1010.8 mb From 231 (SW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
18:38:00 10.80N 57.98W 966.5 mb 391 m 1010.9 mb From 227 (SW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
18:38:30 10.80N 57.95W 966.5 mb 390 m 1010.7 mb From 227 (SW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) - -
18:39:00 10.78N 57.93W 966.5 mb 390 m 1010.7 mb From 222 (SW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) - -
18:39:30 10.78N 57.90W 966.5 mb 390 m 1010.7 mb From 221 (SW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) - -
18:40:00 10.77N 57.88W 966.5 mb 390 m 1010.7 mb From 224 (SW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) - -
18:40:30 10.77N 57.85W 966.4 mb 391 m 1010.7 mb From 221 (SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) - -
18:41:00 10.75N 57.82W 966.5 mb 390 m 1010.7 mb From 216 (SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) - -
18:41:30 10.75N 57.80W 966.4 mb 391 m 1010.7 mb From 215 (SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) - -
18:42:00 10.75N 57.77W 966.5 mb 390 m 1010.7 mb From 216 (SW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) - -
18:42:30 10.73N 57.75W 966.6 mb 389 m 1010.7 mb From 214 (SW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) - -
18:43:00 10.73N 57.72W 966.4 mb 392 m 1010.8 mb From 213 (SSW/SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) - -
18:43:30 10.72N 57.68W 966.5 mb 391 m 1010.7 mb From 214 (SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) - -
18:44:00 10.72N 57.67W 966.8 mb 390 m 1010.9 mb From 212 (SSW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) - -
At 18:34:30Z (first observation), the observation was 183 miles (294 km) to the SSE (148) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 18:44:00Z (last observation), the observation was 210 miles (338 km) to the SE (141) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

599. LSU
Where's stormkat?

Does he need to be here for you to know his prediction is that 94L will eventually be a Category 5 hitting New Orleans?
ok so 94L is pretty much a depression, 96L is close to depression status, and a new low pressure center near new foundland is becoming tropical it seems according to the nhc
31/1745 UTC 11.2N 57.6W T2.0/2.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
TN/456, It is on the Quick Links page now under weather links
pressure is dropping, definitly a stregnthing storm.
I am beginning to think that this could be the year of the High. As worried as we were about the High forcing storms WWD, when they form south of 15N given the pattern we are locked in, the High will keep them well to the south of the U.S.

Nash, I can not help but continuing to think about that TSR? season forecast that Adrian pimped so much and then we all cursed as ignorance when it came out...lol They were the ones with the big countdown to season forecast deal right?
606. AndyN
A cold front is moving through the SouthEast US, so I don't think the protective bubble that was here when Dean approached is in place anymore...Any thoughts on 94L AKA Felix course when it enters the carribean?
And I don't think that will be the case with the next wave nash. Either Fish or the US from the looks of the models...
the year of the HIGH, i like that!
Thought that I would drop in for some storm updates.

As I look around I see that 94l is just skirting SA and looks stronger and better organized then the numbers from the HH indicate.

Once it clears SA it will be over warmer water and will have only light shear to contend with so... this will be intresting to watch develop.

Dean sure taught me to respect the NOAA forcasts
This storm becomes difficult to forecast after about 72hrs. I do believe the High will be moving offshore of the NE U.S. at that time, along with the trough over TX. If this were to verify, I do believe a further north component will ensue and definately more north of the GFDL model at this time.

611. LLJ
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 18:54Z
Date: August 31, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 21

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
18:44:30 10.73N 57.65W 966.3 mb 394 m 1010.8 mb From 208 (SSW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) - -
18:45:00 10.75N 57.65W 966.5 mb 391 m 1010.7 mb From 208 (SSW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) - -
18:45:30 10.75N 57.68W 966.5 mb 393 m 1010.9 mb From 210 (SSW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
18:46:00 10.73N 57.65W 964.6 mb 409 m 1010.7 mb From 210 (SSW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) - -
18:46:30 10.75N 57.63W 965.5 mb 403 m 1011.0 mb From 208 (SSW) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) - -
18:47:00 10.77N 57.63W 966.4 mb 393 m 1010.8 mb From 208 (SSW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) - -
18:47:30 10.77N 57.67W 967.3 mb 385 m 1010.9 mb From 212 (SSW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) - -
18:48:00 10.77N 57.68W 967.1 mb 386 m 1010.8 mb From 213 (SSW/SW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) - -
18:48:30 10.78N 57.72W 966.6 mb 391 m 1010.9 mb From 209 (SSW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) - -
18:49:00 10.80N 57.73W 966.9 mb 389 m 1011.0 mb From 208 (SSW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) - -
18:49:30 10.82N 57.75W 966.9 mb 389 m 1011.0 mb From 206 (SSW) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) - -
18:50:00 10.85N 57.77W 966.9 mb 394 m 1011.6 mb From 210 (SSW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) - -
18:50:30 10.87N 57.78W 966.9 mb 416 m 1014.1 mb From 212 (SSW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) - -
18:51:00 10.88N 57.80W 966.4 mb 418 m 1013.9 mb From 213 (SSW/SW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) - -
18:51:30 10.90N 57.82W 966.8 mb* 410 m* 1013.3 mb From 216 (SW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) - -
18:52:00 10.92N 57.83W 966.4 mb 393 m 1010.9 mb From 217 (SW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
18:52:30 10.95N 57.85W 966.5 mb 391 m 1010.8 mb From 216 (SW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) - -
18:53:00 10.97N 57.87W 966.4 mb 392 m 1010.9 mb From 220 (SW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) - -
18:53:30 11.00N 57.88W 966.4 mb 391 m 1010.7 mb From 219 (SW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) - -
18:54:00 11.02N 57.88W 966.6 mb 389 m 1010.7 mb From 218 (SW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) - -
At 18:44:30Z (first observation), the observation was 211 miles (339 km) to the SE (141) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 18:54:00Z (last observation), the observation was 185 miles (298 km) to the SE (141) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

Definately a much different year from 2006.
Thanks for the lin SJ
Upper trof running SW from S of Cuba to Panama could amplify the Upper Anticylone nosing out to the north into the Cent Caribb from SA.
If TD6/94L moves under this feature might see a quick increase in intensity
615. JRRP
I THINK 94L IS MOVING A LITTLE WNW
96L has a very well defined LLC, if convection can develop a bit closer to the center, then we will have a TD off that, and watch that low pressure that is gaining tropical characteristics, I belive it already has TS strength
Why no vortex yet, I have saw west winds several times!
It is already intensifying nicely after looking at the last RGB loop.
that low pressure near newfoundland, but obviously the real story in town is TD6/94L
nash28

steering currents look similar to what we have been in for the past 3 or so weeks. i beleive this storm will likley be a threat to mexico as dean was. nothing to erode the high and its forcast to continue to build west and south.

but your right and as we saw with deans early tracks they can be totally off. like always only time will tell

Lefty
Posted By: LSU at 6:47 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Where's stormkat?

Does he need to be here for you to know his prediction is that 94L will eventually be a Category 5 hitting New Orleans?
.
.
Give him time. He's taken his entire staff(him) to McDonald's for lunch, where he's eating a Big Mac and consulting with his secret sauces.
we may also end up with 98L soon with that low pressure
623. Prgal
JRRP, you always see systems moving WNW lol.
Posted By: nash28 at 2:57 PM EDT on August 31, 2007.

Definately a much different year from 2006.


Yeah less storms!..LOL
Hey Lefty. Good to see you.

The ridge and trough timing is always tough to forecast, but this pattern has been with us for a while, and it is what is keeping a direct strike away from the U.S. for now.
this needs to be known
(copyed from wikepedia)
Gil claimed its first life in the evening of August 29, when a 14-year-old boy was swept away by a flood-swollen river in Culiacn, Sinaloa, as parts of the town were flooded by up to 1.5 m
Yeah 03, so far. September could get hairy, so we may still surpass last years totals.

thel, good to see ya!

No prob 456, check your mail too...

I am out for a couple, see everyone in a couple hours.

For those that have not seen.

FSU experimental model page Basics Tutorial Video by StormJunkie.com
Interesting...llok at the message at the top of the page.

Link

Anyway BBL.
the year of the high!!!!!!!!!! is it 4:20 yet?
That's terrible MIT. Just awful.
Wow, I think by the end of the day we will have 2 TD's (if they aren't already.) Tomorrow should see the reign of Felix and Gabrielle. Gabrielle, however, will be very short lived, much like Chantal.
Anyone else think 94L is a tropical storm right now?
TN- center of 94L at 11.2N? That would be spot on with what I called :) Not that I know anything, just watching vis sat. Looks like it is getting way too close to South America though... Needs to move north or struggle bigtime.
nash28

exactly. its the same as like in 2003 when the flow was over florida almost all year. the flow right now seems to be south.

the biggest issue right now is a few of the models are doing very poorly forcasting this system. gfs, ukmet and such. this one could be tricky
accuweather is saying we already have TD6 lol
they say max winds of 35mph/gusts to 45mph
What's up Lefty! Good to see ya.

nash, 03, or anyone, was it TSR that had the big countdown to forecast and said no US hit?

Not saying I am buying in to that, but as the season progresses, I will give them a little more credit with each storm that plows due W...
I suspect that as we approach fall the troughs will dig deeper southward. Here in Kansas we just got our first taste of cool Canadien air for the season.
Well, I know everyone's watching 94L like a hawk but here's a visual cue. Looking a heck of a lot more organized than yesterday. Already a TD, maybe a weak TS IMO.
stormjunkie

whats up man. good to see ya as well

lefty
Yeah Lefty, that's what makes this such a pain! With Dean, the NOGAPS was drunk and it took damn near two days as a TS before it even initialized it!

Still, the GFS doesn't know the storm is there.

This is why the models can only be trusted to a point. Using real time SAT and ones own eyes are far more reliable than a model.
Hey LSU, How about them Tigers?!!!

Ok, I had to say it just once. I shall return to the topic on hand now.

How do y'all know which waves off of Africa will be likely to develop? What do you look at besides dry air and wind shear?
we may also end up with 98L soon with that low pressure

Thats the one out near CV, right? Or, is it something else?
Posted By: nash28 at 2:49 PM EDT on August 31, 2007.

I am beginning to think that this could be the year of the High. As worried as we were about the High forcing storms WWD, when they form south of 15N given the pattern we are locked in, the High will keep them well to the south of the U.S.

Yep...Ive been thinking the same for weeks now and and if this pattern continues we might get away with another season without any signifcant problems.

One of the biggest problems this year is the cooler SST'S in the eastern atlantic that really been trouble for the waves coming of africa.There are also a few others factors but to me thats one of the big ones.One thing is for sure is its going to have to come fast and furious in september and ocotber or this season will go down as one of the slowest seasons we have seen in a while.
accuweather also says that CV wave we were watching may develop once the dry air thins out and shear becomes more favorable
Posted By: nash28 at 7:06 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

That's terrible MIT. Just awful.


thank god t.s h....... hasnt claimed its first life.......

shes closer to land than gil
Posted By: Stoopid1 at 7:10 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

we may also end up with 98L soon with that low pressure

Thats the one out near CV, right? Or, is it something else?


No, the low pressure near newfoundland (not 96L but a new one)
What's up Lefty! Good to see ya.

nash, 03, or anyone, was it TSR that had the big countdown to forecast and said no US hit?

Not saying I am buying in to that, but as the season progresses, I will give them a little more credit with each storm that plows due W...


Hey StormJunkie,
Tough call especially if something develops right off FL East Coast or in the Gulf or off a front gutsy call to make. Still plenty of time though.
I don't think TSR's forecast called for a massive heat ridge that drove everything due south and west of the states.

I believe they said cooler SST's off the coast of Africa, and some other drivel...

Still don't buy them.
I think we can all agree this wont be a slow season, there are several features that may develop, over time of course, and some immediate
Yeah I know nash, I'm not really buying it either. Personally I am not a big fan of any season forecast, just noting the irony so far.
654. JRRP
NHC IS WAITING THAT 94L REACH CAT OF HURACANE?????????
the nhc got rid of the special disturbance statement...looks like a TD is coming
tc, The GFS has been developing the same wave for 6 to 8 runs now. Watch that video I posted a link to earlier. I think it would explain a fair amount for you.
Its going to have to come fast real soon as we now enter sept/oct.
23 such an optimist!! I wish but not going to happen dude.
Hello all, Good afternoon...94L is most likely a Tropical Depression right now but i just want to mention something. The high is not as close or as strong as the last one...So the track could differ greatly from Deans track. More northern track is my thinking.
660. 32738
Yes this systeam looks good nice outflow near the center. However my forcast track takes 94L more closer to jamaca right now, that could change later but i like whate i see.
Say a little prayer for the family that lost their 14yr old.

Speaking of children--off to carpool
So now WU has 94L at 11.6 57.9? That's put it clear of South America and on a WNW track (earlier they had it at 11.3 and 57.1). That could mean this has some potential to build IMO...
Wow, o.k., I see it now. Thats pretty odd. Looks rather strong for being that far north. I'll watch it.
96L getting a little weaker
94L getting a little stronger and is most likely now a TD

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASS STORM
31/1745 UTC 38.2N 70.0W T1.0/1.5 96L
31/1745 UTC 11.2N 57.6W T2.0/2.0 94L
31/1145 UTC 38.1N 70.5W T1.5/1.5 96L
31/1145 UTC 11.3N 56.6W T1.5/1.5 94L
96L still has opportunity, but it has to get some more convection quickly, as an increase in convection would likely result in a TD
jp - 23 loves to downplay. He is pulling this out of a hat. you and i know the tropics can change on a dime (Sept,Oct) 10 storms in sept
Posted By: Eyewall911 at 3:14 PM EDT on August 31, 2007.

23 such an optimist!! I wish but not going to happen dude.

Whats not going to happen...Please explain to me.Iam going to basically make it easy for you as long as that wall is in place most waves will tend to track into the caribbean and be blocked from turning north.CPC mentioned this in there outlook on cooler SST'S in the atlantic and its indeed been an issue so far in my opinion.The problem is once these waves tap into the waters in the caribbean they explode as youve seen with dean and now 94L.
669. LLJ
Storm INVEST: Observed By Air Force #305
Storm #FF in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 25KT (28.8mph 46.3km/h) In SE Quadrant At 18:57:40 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 22.5KT (25.9mph 41.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, August 31, 2007 3:05:00 PM (Fri, 31 Aug 2007 19:05:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 11 34' N 058 13' W (11.6N 58.2W) [See Map]
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 30KT (34.5MPH 55.6km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 27nm (31.05miles) From Center At Bearing 148
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 25KT (28.75mph 46.3km/h) From 216
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 25nm (28.7 miles) From Center At Bearing 148
Minimum pressure: 1009mb (29.8in) -- Extrapolated
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): Surface 1500ft
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 6nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds
and I am guessing 23 is forgetting that were above average, and if felix forms, we will be 2 above average
284
URNT12 KNHC 311918
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/19:05:30Z
B. 11 deg 34 min N
058 deg 13 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 148 deg 027 nm
F. 216 deg 025 kt
G. 148 deg 025 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 21 C/ 396 m
J. 23 C/ 392 m
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 01345/01
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF305 01FFA INVEST OB 14
MAX FL WIND 25 KT SE QUAD 18:57:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

672. LLJ
There's our TD!
whats going to have to happen fast?

do most of you forget how active September and October can be during a Neutral-La Nina season?

nah nm I guess the season is a bust


Ignore people who say the season is a bust. They don't know what they are talking about.

jp - 23 loves to downplay. He is pulling this out of a hat. you and i know the tropics can change on a dime (Sept,Oct) 10 storms in sept

10 storms in September? I find that very unlikely. 2002 had 8 in September during El Nio, which was odd, but no month has had 10 tropical cyclones develop.
Oh, Doc Ben -- I'm jealous of your first burst of Canadian air--we got our first "cool front" in South Louisiana this week and it's cooled us to 92 degrees.
can some 1 tell noaa to hurry up and get 94l callsified?
SJ...please make more videos...I LOVE that video about the models!!!!...please make more
and I am guessing 23 is forgetting that were above average, and if felix forms, we will be 2 above average

Well, numbers don't really matter anyway. So technically, even if we did finish the season with just 5 storms (not going to happen; that's a fact), Dean would still qualify as a big storm. It only takes one to make the season busy, regardless of who is hit.

At any rate, you are right, and this season has been remarkably similar to 1998, 1999, and 2000 so far. I would think a season like those three will take place.
Posted By: extreme236 at 3:19 PM EDT on August 31, 2007.

and I am guessing 23 is forgetting that were above average, and if felix forms, we will be 2 above average

This is what a normal season looks like and hopefully dean is all 2007 has instore this year.
Guys....

What H23 has said is not false or downplaying. Use your eyes. It is happening. The only difference between 2004 and this year (so far) is that the A/B High and the East Coast High have bridged and flanked further to the south and west, which is why nothing is getting past 20N.

Yes, this can change, as the long range GFS is beginning to indicate. The GFS is showing the ridge eroding in the CATL due to the increase of troughiness which is normal for September.
everyone has seemed to forget the notion of what an average season is

on AVERAGE the 5th storm forms on Sept 5th and the 6th storm forms of Sept 12th


That's true. By the way jp, not going to be like texascanecaster and advertise, but if you and anyone else want to, you can stop by my newest blog if you want.
it could be similiar to 2001, not only in the names, but with the number of storms and when they formed
Tropical Storm Henriette CLOUDS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WOO HOO!

Tropical Storm Henriette has some cluds in the gulf of mexico!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
nash, good post. I never said anything about Adrian, because I actually like his posts.

I would think that at least one big storm will sneak into the U.S. though. Just my take, since we still have September and October left for the huge activity.
10 storms in one month is asinine. Not gonna happen.

Cut that in half. That's more likely.
it could be similiar to 2001, not only in the names, but with the number of storms and when they formed

True. I thought of that before as well. If the steering pattern sets up like 2001 though, a lot of troughiness and Carribean hits could take place. This would be fortunate for the U.S., but unfortunate for other locations. We'll see though.
I agree Koritheman. I still do not think we will escape this season without a hurricane strike before it is all said and done.

Two straight years without a direct hit is not likely.
10 storms in one month is asinine. Not gonna happen.

Cut that in half. That's more likely.


So true, nash. I'd say about 4-8 storms are possible, with probably 6 storms in September occuring out of that 4-8.
Again the cooler SST'S of africa is giving these waves a hard time.Also the Atlantic ridge has kept the ITCZ well to the south of where it normally should be at this time of year.
SST'S of africa are only marginal at best in that area.
I agree Koritheman. I still do not think we will escape this season without a hurricane strike before it is all said and done.

Two straight years without a direct hit is not likely.


If we did escape, that would be the first two-year gap since 2000-2001. Imagine two straight years with no retirement, too. That has not happened since 1986-1987.
I think it is more of a High pressure position and strength issue, rather than the SST's off Africa.

Once these waves get past 40W, they begin to thrive, assuming the UL conditions are favorable.

Dry air may be holding 94L's development for a while.Still see this developing.
well Dean will be retired...
it works
anyhow!

td6 has NOT FORMED
Again the cooler SST'S of africa is giving these waves a hard time.Also the Atlantic ridge has kept the ITCZ well to the south of where it normally should be at this time of year.

I would have to agree about the ITCZ, but disagree about the SSTs. They are warming up because SAL has been eroding. The SST page on here shows at least 83F water on the southern coast of Africa, where most waves have been coming off at. Further north it's cooler, but still marginally favorable and enough to support convection. Africa is not going to be 87F every year.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:32 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Dry air may be holding 94L's development for a while.Still see this developing.


Not really a lot of dry air
94L will most likely reach Hurricane status during its trek across the Caribbean. SA will not tear it up, because the COC is north of the landmass. It will remain over water.

The question again is how the synoptic pattern plays out after 72hrs.
well Dean will be retired...

Are you sure? I thought they would retire Emily, and they didn't. Same for Edith in 1971. I have no idea why it was not retired.
SSts are near or just slightly above normal off the coast of Africa

well, Dean killed 40-45 people, and it became the 9th strongest hurricane on record...I can almost guarentee it will be retired
extreme, dry air is probably coming into 94L's circulation, but overall the system has a good appearance, and it will likely be upgraded to a TD today or early Saturday. IMO, this storm will still develop even if it doesn't do so until the east Carribean. I don't think John Hope's rule will apply here, and I still think it will develop before long. Just IMO.
As I said....

I do not put much stock into the SST's right off the coast of Africa. If a wave comes off with good structure, it will survive. What matters most is what the UL conditions are like in the CATL and the WATL and what latitude the system is at.
how long till the next advisory?

in mins
i cant convert from my time to florida time
I would be shocked if they did not declare TD status at 5pm.

It is a TD. Has been for hours.
well, Dean killed 40-45 people, and it became the 9th strongest hurricane on record...I can almost guarentee it will be retired

I agree that it will be retired, primarily because of the deaths. Emily was the only July Category 5 on record too, and they didn't retire it, so you never know. LOL!

I mean, it seems like they only retire the storms that are powerful, even if they only skirt areas and not hit them all that bad. I'm surprised Helene in 1958 was not retired, considering it brought Category 5 wind gusts to Cape Hatteras. I don't see why Isabel needed to be retired, either. Same for Lili... was it really needed?
how long till the next advisory?

in mins
i cant convert from my time to florida time


5:00 PM EDT is the next advisory, so that should be your time with you being in Florida.

3:50 for anyone in the central time zone.

I would be shocked if they did not declare TD status at 5pm.

It is a TD. Has been for hours.


Agreed, nash. I'm waiting on that classification myself.
New to the blog here, and sooo not an expert. I'm still figuring out what makes the NHC decide one swirly blob of convection is a TD and one isn't.

I was wondering... Dr. M has posted a lot about the record melting of arctic ice this year... Has this affected SST's very much anywhere, and if so, has it affected the pattern of tropical cyclone formation this year? Maybe not the number of tropical cyclones, but where they form/go? I know the oceans are, overall, very warm this year, but hasn't all that melting ice changed the oceans somewhere?
accuweather says it is a TD lol. although I think that is a guess of their's
Storm INVEST: Observed by AF #305
Storm # In Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #: AF305
Date/Time of Recon Report: August 31, 2007 19:05:30 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 11 34 ' N 058 13 ' W (11.57 N 58.22 W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of Millibars: Meters (Normal: Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 30 Knots (34.5 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 027 Nautical Miles (31.05 miles) From Center At Bearing 148
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 025 Knots (28.75 MPH) From 216
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 025 Nautical Miles (28.75 Miles) From Center At Bearing 148
Minimum Pressure: extrap 1009 Millibars (29.795 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 21C (69.8F) / 396 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 23C (73.4F) / 392 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 22C (71.6F) / NAC (NAF)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500 Feet
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 6 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 25 KT SE Quadrant at 18:57:40 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.


IN CASE THE CURRENT INVESTS DON'T PAN OUT, WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME FUTURE ONES BY SEPT. 5/6.
CHECK OUT THESE TAG-TEAM TS's:
GFS, W. ATLANTIC, 08/31/07, 12UTC +384Link
AS UNLIKELY AS IT IS TO LOOK LIKE THIS 16 DAYS HENCE, HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL.
The HH have been into 94L and have foud a closed circulation, and sustained winds over 30 knots, does anyone have any earthly idea as to why the NHC is procrastinating on classifying 94L as a TD??? Is everyone on an extended lunch break over there?
716. LLJ
There would have been no Vortex Message if there was not an upgrade coming.
717. o311
There is a burst of convention at 35w, is that going to get killed?
Posted By: GetReal at 7:41 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

The HH have been into 94L and have foud a closed circulation, and sustained winds over 30 knots, does anyone have any earthly idea as to why the NHC is procrastinating on classifying 94L as a TD??? Is everyone on an extended lunch break over there?


Because they wait till close to advisory time. give them 15 minutes
Was it accu weather who stated at the beginning of the hurricane season that the trend would be for storms to head W and hit Mexico? This is the trend so far. FL will have to wait until late Sept. or Oct for any action. The W coast will be vulnerable then as stalled fronts will form a couple close calls or direct hits before it's said and done. Just my 2 cents.
4pm td advisory?
The HH have been into 94L and have foud a closed circulation, and sustained winds over 30 knots, does anyone have any earthly idea as to why the NHC is procrastinating on classifying 94L as a TD??? Is everyone on an extended lunch break over there?

It isn't advisory time yet, for one. They may issue a special advisory, but I doubt it. People in the islands are used to this kind of stuff sneaking up on them, so the NHC will probably wait until the 5:00 PM advisory. I thought they were crazy in not classifiyng 90L as a TD, and they did at the right moment.
They will declare at the 5pm. That's when they update.
Posted By: o311 at 7:41 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

There is a burst of convention at 35w, is that going to get killed?


It shouldnt, there isnt that much dry air near it, and shear is a bit lower over it
725. LLJ
Still flying:


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 19:38Z
Date: August 31, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 24

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
19:14:30 11.90N 58.55W 967.0 mb 377 m 1009.4 mb From 76 (ENE) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) - -
19:15:00 11.92N 58.57W 966.8 mb 379 m 1009.4 mb From 73 (ENE) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) - -
19:15:30 11.93N 58.58W 966.8 mb 378 m 1009.3 mb From 72 (ENE) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) - -
19:16:00 11.95N 58.62W 966.9 mb 377 m 1009.3 mb From 71 (ENE) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) - -
19:16:30 11.97N 58.63W 966.9 mb 377 m 1009.3 mb From 66 (ENE) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) - -
19:17:00 12.00N 58.65W 966.6 mb 379 m 1009.3 mb From 64 (ENE) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) - -
19:17:30 12.02N 58.67W 966.9 mb 377 m 1009.3 mb From 62 (ENE) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) - -
19:18:00 12.03N 58.68W 966.8 mb 378 m 1009.3 mb From 61 (ENE) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) - -
19:18:30 12.05N 58.70W 966.6 mb 380 m 1009.4 mb From 63 (ENE) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) - -
19:19:00 12.07N 58.73W 966.8 mb 379 m 1009.4 mb From 60 (ENE) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) - -
19:19:30 12.08N 58.75W 966.9 mb 378 m 1009.4 mb From 66 (ENE) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) - -
19:20:00 12.10N 58.77W 966.6 mb 381 m 1009.5 mb From 68 (ENE) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) - -
19:20:30 12.13N 58.78W 966.8 mb 380 m 1009.5 mb From 70 (ENE) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) - -
19:21:00 12.15N 58.80W 966.9 mb 379 m 1009.5 mb From 70 (ENE) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) - -
19:21:30 12.17N 58.82W 966.6 mb 381 m 1009.5 mb From 70 (ENE) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) - -
19:22:00 12.18N 58.85W 966.8 mb 380 m 1009.5 mb From 70 (ENE) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) - -
19:22:30 12.20N 58.87W 966.9 mb 380 m 1009.7 mb From 69 (ENE) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
19:23:00 12.22N 58.88W 966.5 mb 383 m 1009.6 mb From 69 (ENE) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) - -
19:23:30 12.25N 58.90W 966.9 mb 380 m 1009.6 mb From 69 (ENE) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) - -
19:24:00 12.27N 58.92W 966.9 mb 380 m 1009.6 mb From 67 (ENE) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) - -
At 19:14:30Z (first observation), the observation was 109 miles (176 km) to the SE (139) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 19:24:00Z (last observation), the observation was 74 miles (118 km) to the SE (141) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

almost 4:20
Question: what where the highest sustain winds found in 94L?
Accuweather has a graphic showing 988mb in 94L.

*sigh*
Just for the fun of it, does anyone believe that the NHC will not upgrade 94L???? It would go down as one of the best looking tropical waves in history, if so!
Dr. M said no models predicting anything coming off Africa developing in the next week yet I have heard on two different sites today that GfS is picking up on something in the middle of next week. Also a couple models forming something off of the east coast next week further south than 95l and with high pressure above it to stall it out or possibly move it back in toward the coast.
Guys, it's a TD. Regardless of when they update, we have TD6.
No, they will upgrade. Vortex confirmed it.
12z ECMWF still has a strong 500mb ridge in place.With that outcome a track westward seems reasonable.Adrian
talking about deaths in dean ehres THE ACTUAL TOTAL!
Deaths and damage from Hurricane Dean

Dominica 2 Dominican Republic 6 haiti 11 11
Jamaica 3 France 2 Martinique 2
Mexico 14 Hidalgo 6 Zacualtipn 2 Cuautepec 2
San Agustn Tlaxiaca 1
Pachuca 1
Jalisco 2 Puerto Vallarta 2
Michoacn 1 Paracho 1
Puebla 6 Tepetzintla 4
Pahuatln 1
Unknown 1
Veracruz 1 Xalapa 1
Nicaragua 1
St Lucia 1
United States 1 Florida 1 Sarasota 1 [90]
Seems we have a tropical depression also another interesting area near 35W.
Posted By: ForecasterColby at 7:45 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Accuweather has a graphic showing 988mb in 94L.

*sigh*

does some 1 knoe any good lawers?

im tempted to sue accu weather
Hurricane23, Right now im pretty sure we all know including you that its WAY to early to tell where a high will be how strong it will be or what else will steer tropical
Depression 6.
I must mention that TD6 is a rather massive depression.
Interesting Steering.
Posted By: mit5000 at 7:49 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Posted By: ForecasterColby at 7:45 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Accuweather has a graphic showing 988mb in 94L.

*sigh*
does some 1 knoe any good lawers?

im tempted to sue accu weather


I have emailed them but no reply yet
No, It was Independent Weather Center who said that the trend will be W towards Mexico. They have been dead on so far. We'll see what the future brings.
Not arguing that 94L is a tropical depression but its not well organized internally yet. 1 kM satellite loop on ramsdis shows the mid-high levels to elongated, the llc closer to the NW side. While the banding patterns look great, it is not a TS just yet and just qualifies as a TD, judging from reported winds so far.
Here comes the wave behind 94L trying to flare-up...Could be a player in the coming days.
Posted By: Drakoen at 7:49 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Seems we have a tropical depression also another interesting area near 35W.



Isnt that the one Stormw said to watch, no convection but still had a nice spin?
Drak,
That steering chart wrong?
Greetings from the spiceisle of Grenada:
We are seeing 94L right now. I have a photo uploaded on my account taken of the approaching front from the South of the island about 45 minutes ago. I haven't figured out how to attach it yet (a little help?).

No winds yet (the flag outside is still) but lots of rain, some thunder and a few lightening strikes. The skies have darkened considerably since I took the picture.

Hey Drakeon, from that steering map, does it look like this storm may be picked up and move toward FL or into the northern Gulf?
Accuweather is pathetic..They are already forcasting up to next thursday....
In My honest Opinion
Does anyone think the area of circulation will form off of the Georgia coast? And in what direction? Haven't been on this site for a VERY long time, so I could use an update.
OK, let's get this straight. This AM Quickscat was telling us there were 25-35 knot winds but NO closed circulation (I was arguing there was). Now recon is telling us there IS a closed circ but the winds aren't strong enough to be a TD? :) Funny, can we add the two together and call it TD6?
Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:53 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Here comes the wave behind 94L trying to flare-up...Could be a player in the coming days.


yea.
Posted By: Drakoen at 7:51 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Interesting Steering


Yes Drak it is very similar, at this point and time, to the pattern that guided Ivan into the central Caribbean...
recon tells us winds are 30kts
NHC took the SPECIAL DISTURBANCE statement off of their website.
Recon ESTIMATES winds are 30kt.
The nest invest i think will be the CV wave.
758. LLJ
RECON says this is their center fix.....as of 3:05pm.
Link
This adds to the growing evidence of a possible TD with 94L

Observations for CROWN, Trinidad and Tobago (TTCP)
1900Z 30 Aug 2007 to 1900Z 31 Aug 2007
STN TIME ALTM TMP DEW RH DIR SPD VIS CLOUDS Weather
DD/HHMM inHg F F % deg kt mile
==== ======= ====== === === === === === ==== ======= ======= ======= ============
TTCP 31/1900 29.94 79 70 74 50 13 3.7 FEW010 SCT015 BKN080 TRW-
TTCP 31/1800 29.94 82 72 70 110 6 6.2 FEW012 BKN080 BKN280
TTCP 31/1700 29.94 86 75 70 20 8 6.2 FEW012 SCT090 BKN280
TTCP 31/1600 29.94 84 73 70 330 5 6.2 FEW018 BKN280
TTCP 31/1500 29.94 81 73 79 0 0 6.2 FEW012 BKN280 RW-
TTCP 31/1400 29.97 84 73 70 20 6 6.2 FEW012 SCT038 BKN270
TTCP 31/1300 29.97 84 75 74 0 0 6.2 SCT016 BKN270
TTCP 31/1200 29.94 81 73 79 0 0 6.2 FEW012 BKN260
TTCP 31/1100 29.94 79 73 84 0 0 6.2 SCT016 BKN300
TTCP 31/1000 29.91 77 73 89 0 0 6.2 FEW012 SCT018
TTCP 31/0900 29.91 77 72 83 0 0 6.2 FEW018
TTCP 31/0800 29.91 79 73 84 0 0 6.2 FEW018
TTCP 31/0700 29.91 79 73 84 0 0 6.2 FEW018
TTCP 31/0600 29.91 79 73 84 0 0 6.2 FEW018
TTCP 31/0500 29.91 79 73 84 0 0 6.2 SCT018
TTCP 31/0400 29.94 79 73 84 0 0 6.2 FEW018
TTCP 31/0300 29.94 79 72 79 0 0 6.2 FEW018
TTCP 31/0200 29.94 79 73 84 0 0 6.2 FEW018
TTCP 31/0100 29.94 81 73 79 0 0 6.2 FEW018
TTCP 31/0000 29.94 82 73 74 0 0 6.2 FEW018
TTCP 30/2300 29.91 82 73 74 0 0 6.2 FEW018
TTCP 30/2200 29.91 82 73 74 90 8 6.2 FEW018
TTCP 30/2100 29.85 84 73 70 90 11 6.2 FEW018
TTCP 30/2000 29.85 86 73 66 110 13 6.2 FEW020
TTCP 30/1900 29.85 88 73 62 90 12 6.2 FEW022

Intresting to note recon found the center at 12.8N.
Has anyone noticed that the highest winds have been located at or above 12N? That would mean that 94L's center is farther north than originally thought.

That is a very interesting feature at around 35W. Wasn't that the low that was coming behind 94L that is part of that wave we were talking about around the CV islands a few days ago?
Posted By: cchsweatherman at 7:57 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Has anyone noticed that the highest winds have been located at or above 12N? That would mean that 94L's center is farther north than originally thought.

That is a very interesting feature at around 35W. Wasn't that the low that was coming behind 94L that is part of that wave we were talking about around the CV islands a few days ago?


yes.
anyone got a good idea of the heading of 94L. It looks to be going NW but the center isn't exactly define. Someone help me out here please.
765. LLJ
Center fix: 11.6N 58.2W)
Im sticking with my thinking that 94L or TD6 will be on a more northern track then suggested...
I called it earlier today. The center looked like it was organizing further N to me. (pat self on back)
i think we will have TD6 and 98L by 5pm and 98L by 11pm
TD now on navy site
Center at 12.8????

Well, so much for the COC closer to 11N:-)

That should goof the models up a bit.
The feature at 35W will also develop, and that one will be of concern to the US. Here comes the ramp up!
94L is now no name on the Navy site. We have tropical depression 6.
woah Taz what 98L? we dont have that yet. maybe that low pressure near newfoundland with TS winds though
Posted By: tillou at 7:58 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

anyone got a good idea of the heading of 94L. It looks to be going NW but the center isn't exactly define. Someone help me out here please.


ill give u the track !

its on the wunderground web page........ i uploaded it to here!


Link

i didi it my self!
Tropical Depression 6 has form
Infrared view here of the wave which does not look like much at the moment but it could continue to flare up as its moves westward.

ggg
777. IKE
Navy site has 94L as 06L NONAME!
Well, we have had TD6 since early this morning, but I understand they needed to wait for the RECON data.
Based on satellite images and surface observations, the Hurricane Center reports a tropical depression, the sixth of the year in the Atlantic Basin, has developed roughly 250 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands.

At 11 a.m. EDT, the maximum sustained winds were 35 mph, with gusts reaching 45 mph. Over the next 24 to 36 hours, TD-6 will intensify over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea. The system is expected to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Felix by Saturday morning as it lashes the southern Windward Islands with heavy rain and strong winds.

Hurricane Center forecasters are forecasting the storm will reach hurricane strength by Sunday morning as it takes a track to the south Related News


HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!
12.8N Humm!!! So much for garbage in and garbage out on the previous model runs!!! LOL
Finally the wait is over
Once the wave at 35W hits the warmer ocean temperatures it flare up like 94L.
783. LLJ
This is the Vortex Message and here is the center fix:


Storm INVEST: Observed By Air Force #305
Storm #FF in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 36KT (41.4mph 66.7km/h) In NW Quadrant At 19:34:40 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 32.4KT (37.3mph 60.0km/h) *
Misc Remarks: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, August 31, 2007 3:05:00 PM (Fri, 31 Aug 2007 19:05:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 11 34' N 058 13' W (11.6N 58.2W) [See Map]
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 30KT (34.5MPH 55.6km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 27nm (31.05miles) From Center At Bearing 148
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 25KT (28.75mph 46.3km/h) From 216
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 25nm (28.7 miles) From Center At Bearing 148
Minimum pressure: 1009mb (29.8in) -- Extrapolated
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500ft
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 6nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds
Posted By: IKE at 8:02 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Navy site has 94L as 06L NONAME!

Scary, lol :)
vortex message shows sfc winds of 37mph...
max sfc winds
Drake the new cv wave looks like it is ahead of schedule. Could see something as early as tomorrow morning.
those HH's should just stay in TD6 for a bit longer lol because they could find a TS if they were in long enough
AH AH AH AH AH and you all siad 94L was RIP a few nights a go heh heh heh
Hurricane23, I did find that interesting and you beat me to the punch. Would that seem to suggest that it is more likely for a more northerly motion in the future?

About that feature at 35W, wasn't that the low that came off Africa behind 94L? Could that be the low trying to form and get something going?
I am afraid my questions/comments are elementary but I am in school here, learning a lot about weather and storms. Question: It looks like there are several systems developing in the sea. What are the chances of any of them posing a threat to the U.S, and how soon will we know?
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 8:04 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Posted By: IKE at 8:02 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Navy site has 94L as 06L NONAME!

Scary, lol :)


it has not

unless the main has died on me!
795. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Taz, you did too, when you got interested more in the CV wave
Posted By: cchsweatherman at 4:07 PM EDT on August 31, 2007.

Hurricane23, I did find that interesting and you beat me to the punch. Would that seem to suggest that it is more likely for a more northerly motion in the future?

About that feature at 35W, wasn't that the low that came off Africa behind 94L? Could that be the low trying to form and get something going?

Yep thats the wave...Her is what the NHC had to say.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 21N DRIFTING W WITH A 1011
MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. BROAD ELONGATED LOW/MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN
26W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN
33W-36W.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 8:07 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

AH AH AH AH AH and you all siad 94L was RIP a few nights a go heh heh heh


I almost had given up on the thing.
Link

new blog
can some 1 update wikepedia 2007 atlantic hurricane season for me......... AMND e pac 1
801. LLJ
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 20:09Z
Date: August 31, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 27

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
19:44:30 12.57N 59.53W 966.8 mb 387 m 1010.3 mb From 46 (NE) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 30 kts (~ 34.5 mph) - -
19:45:00 12.55N 59.53W 966.9 mb 386 m 1010.3 mb From 46 (NE) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) - -
19:45:30 12.52N 59.52W 966.8 mb 386 m 1010.2 mb From 47 (NE) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) - -
19:46:00 12.48N 59.52W 966.6 mb 387 m 1010.2 mb From 44 (NE) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) - -
19:46:30 12.45N 59.52W 966.9 mb 384 m 1010.1 mb From 43 (NE) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) - -
19:47:00 12.43N 59.52W 967.1 mb 381 m 1009.9 mb From 44 (NE) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) - -
19:47:30 12.40N 59.52W 966.5 mb 386 m 1009.9 mb From 43 (NE) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) - -
19:48:00 12.37N 59.52W 966.9 mb 383 m 1010.0 mb From 43 (NE) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) - -
19:48:30 12.35N 59.52W 966.6 mb 384 m 1009.8 mb From 43 (NE) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) - -
19:49:00 12.32N 59.52W 966.8 mb 383 m 1009.8 mb From 42 (NE) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) - -
19:49:30 12.28N 59.50W 966.9 mb 382 m 1009.8 mb From 36 (NE) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
19:50:00 12.25N 59.50W 966.6 mb 384 m 1009.8 mb From 33 (NNE/NE) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
19:50:30 12.23N 59.50W 966.8 mb 383 m 1009.8 mb From 33 (NNE/NE) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
19:51:00 12.20N 59.50W 966.8 mb 384 m 1009.9 mb From 31 (NNE) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
19:51:30 12.17N 59.50W 966.9 mb 383 m 1009.9 mb From 32 (NNE) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
19:52:00 12.13N 59.50W 966.5 mb 386 m 1009.9 mb From 28 (NNE) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) - -
19:52:30 12.12N 59.50W 967.0 mb 382 m 1009.9 mb From 23 (NNE) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) - -
19:53:00 12.08N 59.50W 966.5 mb 386 m 1009.9 mb From 24 (NNE) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) - -
19:53:30 12.05N 59.48W 967.2 mb 381 m 1010.1 mb From 30 (NNE) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
19:54:00 12.03N 59.48W 966.8 mb 386 m 1010.2 mb From 32 (NNE) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
At 19:44:30Z (first observation), the observation was 37 miles (59 km) to the S (171) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 19:54:00Z (last observation), the observation was 74 miles (119 km) to the S (173) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

Finally gets a TD label. I think it looked slightly more impressive (shape, symmetry, outflow) this AM. Looks more amorphous blobbish now though. But hey, it's a TD officially now finally (I agree nash, this was a TD this AM and may ahve been slightly strronger back then than now).
803. LLJ
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 20:15Z
Date: August 31, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 29

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
20:04:30 11.47N 59.45W 966.9 mb 386 m 1011.0 mb From 310 (NW) at 10 kts (11.5 mph) 12 kts (~ 13.8 mph) - -
20:05:00 11.43N 59.45W 966.9 mb 362 m 1008.2 mb From 324 (NW) at 10 kts (11.5 mph) 11 kts (~ 12.6 mph) - -
20:05:30 11.42N 59.45W 966.5 mb 419 m 1014.5 mb From 324 (NW) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) - -
20:06:00 11.38N 59.43W 967.0 mb 421 m 1015.2 mb From 313 (NW) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) - -
20:06:30 11.35N 59.43W 966.6 mb 213 m 990.8 mb From 332 (NNW) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) - -
20:07:00 11.33N 59.43W 952.3 mb 459 m 1004.3 mb From 340 (NNW) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) - -
20:07:30 11.30N 59.43W 949.2 mb 546 m 1011.2 mb From 335 (NNW) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) - -
20:08:00 11.27N 59.43W 960.9 mb 441 m 1010.8 mb From 324 (NW) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) - -
20:08:30 11.25N 59.43W 967.0 mb 388 m 1011.0 mb From 312 (NW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
20:09:00 11.22N 59.43W 965.9 mb 396 m 1010.9 mb From 310 (NW) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
20:09:30 11.18N 59.43W 965.4 mb 403 m 1011.1 mb From 321 (NW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) - -
20:10:00 11.17N 59.43W 965.6 mb 401 m 1011.2 mb From 315 (NW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) - -
20:10:30 11.13N 59.42W 965.4 mb 403 m 1011.3 mb From 292 (WNW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) - -
20:11:00 11.10N 59.42W 965.8 mb 398 m 1011.1 mb From 273 (W) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
20:11:30 11.08N 59.42W 965.0 mb 406 m 1011.4 mb From 275 (W) at 9 kts (10.3 mph) 10 kts (~ 11.5 mph) - -
20:12:00 11.05N 59.42W 965.5 mb 402 m 1011.6 mb From 310 (NW) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) - -
20:12:30 11.03N 59.42W 965.5 mb 403 m 1011.8 mb From 287 (WNW) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
20:13:00 11.00N 59.42W 965.3 mb 405 m 1011.4 mb From 291 (WNW) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) - -
20:13:30 10.97N 59.40W 965.5 mb 403 m 1011.1 mb From 285 (WNW) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) - -
20:14:00 10.95N 59.40W 965.5 mb 403 m 1011.2 mb From 289 (WNW) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) - -
At 20:04:30Z (first observation), the observation was 113 miles (182 km) to the S (174) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 20:14:00Z (last observation), the observation was 143 miles (230 km) to the E (82) from Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago.

can yall tell me what map can i use that will tell me where the ridges, High, low, and troughs are located and forecasted to be?
Amazing. I leave the computer for two hours and when I come back, we have a new depression.
OFCL Probability of high winds from KAC R-D

sdgdfzgh
dont worry ur head daytime cycle completed now night cycle becoming active with convection on increase td/f will be as strong as this morning or somewhat stronger later by midnight next 12 hrs its got to get a serious act together to maintain itself
Hmmm..Just got back (after a full afternoon) and light traffic on the Blog with a depression out there......Guess it is Labor Day Weekend......Just finished chatting with a friend who is flying out tommorow morning for a diving trip (for a week) to Roattan off the coast of Honduras....Checked my Blackberry and showed her the current cone.....Should she wait or should she go?.....
bump
I personally don't put down non-refundable deposits on travel to climatologically risky areas during their peak storm seasons, so if they appear to suddenly fall within a cone of uncertainty , I can make new plans. For what that's worth.
- Working & Lurking
hurricane felix is now a cat 5!