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Two African waves worth mentioning

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:51 PM GMT on July 18, 2009

There are two African tropical waves worth mentioning today, though neither looks particularly threatening. A tropical wave near 12N 45W, about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is now surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert. The dry air has disrupted most of the wave's heavy thunderstorm activity, and will continue to make it difficult for this system to develop over the next 2 - 3 days. Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and should remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range over the next 2 - 3 days. Thereafter, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and only a modest wind shift associated with 97L. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.

A second tropical wave now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands is under 30 knots of wind shear, and has little prospect of development due to the high shear. However, the wave will bring heavy rain to the islands over the next two days.

None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days, and I don't expect either of the two African waves mentioned today to develop over at least the next three days.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L, 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

I'll have an update Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2002. Dr3w
what do you guys think about 97L?

do you think it will become TD #2 or will it stay a Tropical Wave
2003. IKE
SAL just about gone....

Another round of convective bursts

Quoting Dr3w:
what do you guys think about 97l?

do you think it will become TD #2 or will it stay a Tropical Wave


IMO it all depends on how fast its going. right now its going pretty fast so we'll see..
2006. Drakoen
I see a well-defined inverted V signature on satellite imagery. That's the most I can find at the surface given the frames we have.
Quoting Weather456:
Another round of convective bursts

Starting to look a lot more organized even than earlier this morning.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


IMO it all depends on how fast its going. right now its going pretty fast so we'll see..


Based on the visible loop I do believe it has slowed down some though
Quoting claimsadjuster:
good to see you back 456. i know it is early but what direction do you think this thing will take? what i am asking is there a good chance it will find it's way into the gulf?


Its not too early to get an idea on track since it pretty much at all levels. W then WNW.

Though development is pretty much 50/50, track is a bit more evident. The storm is currently moving west and has slowed down some since about 24 hrs ago. On this current path, it should bring it near the Windward Islands and Barbados by Monday morning. Regardless of development increase in showers expected for the region. Beyond that is pretty much anyone’s guess. The subtropical ridge is well established across the subtropical Atlantic but there is weakness on its western end that may help ease the disturbance more towards the WNW, then NW in the Caribbean Sea. Now I cannot guarantee we will have a tropical storm from this, so I think areas like Jamaica, the Caymans and Cuba should monitor the system since conditions are forecasted to be conducive for development.

More
97L is getting its act together... Alot of you called it. Def a fighter.
Wowza @ 97L... I should check in more often...
Quoting StormJunkie:
Thanks nrti and good morning

Not what I wanted to hear...I am not a big fan of data latency... :~)


Morning SJ. Worse than I originally stated:

2013. IKE
Quoting Weather456:
Another round of convective bursts



Nice frame...and one of the best frames for any invest this season in the Atlantic...low shear helps....
Floater is back on 97L
Lets not forget the wave 1,0000 miles east of the current Invest..Looks interesting NHC has moved the satellite over former 97l
Thanks 456
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Based on the visible loop I do believe it has slowed down some though


I agree BAP, and that likely has something to do with it's ability to organize imvho...Even during the convective bursts last night it seemed that it was moving so fast it was creating self induced shear.
Quoting StormJunkie:


I agree BAP, and that likely has something to do with it's ability to organize imvho...Even during the convective bursts last night it seemed that it was moving so fast it was creating self induced shear.


maybe that is the "shear" tampaspin was seeing
Sorry, just noticed NHC has the floater back on 97L and re-designated. Looking extremely healthy on wv too.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Based on the visible loop I do believe it has slowed down some though


yeah i think its slowed from 23 mph to at least below 19 mph. but could that also be a sign of a weakening high? which would indicate more nw movement once it gets in the caribbean. maybe too early to tell though.
2021. Drakoen
Nice they got the floater up. SSD has been working fast this season in get everything ready.
97L has a little structure to it. Looking for that rolling motion and outflow channels. Maybe Bill Gates better get his barges ready?? Inflow and outflow is the name of the game*****
Here is something interesting

The SOI has been in positive territory since July 3rd
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


yeah i think its slowed from 23 mph to at least below 19 mph. but could that also be a sign of a weakening high? which would indicate more nw movement once it gets in the caribbean. maybe too early to tell though.


the strength of a high determines the speed in which these systems move, it doesnt mean the high is going to erode away though

Actually Reedzone was calling this the whole time and received some major flak for it. But he said this system would make a comebak on the past night and it did... Props to Reedzone for being strong... and BAP
I give this 97l a high chance of developing,its looking really good right now.Tstms erupting/and very cold too.Signs of an organizing system.
STORM MOVING WEST AT 25 MPH.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


maybe that is the "shear" tampaspin was seeing


Well it is moving at a fair whack, occasionally you see storms struggling to sort themselves out when they're moving that quickly.

Been a couple of examples in the last couple of years. (I want to say Dolly, but the reason for that might be something else, don't remember too well.)
not to get ahead of ourselves, but look at the last two frames of the visible loop, I am starting to see more of a rolling motion

start of a more pronounced circulation?
2030. IKE
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
not to get ahead of ourselves, but look at the last two frames of the visible loop, I am starting to see more of a rolling motion

start of a more pronounced circulation?


It does look better.

I think they need to up the odds.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


the strength of a high determines the speed in which these systems move, it doesnt mean the high is going to erode away though



yeah i dont know much whats gonna happen with the highs.. i think the track it takes is gonna rely more on strength. anyway i honestly am now thinking this could be ana. the circulation is very well defined.
Thunderstorm coverge needs to expand but BAP I'm seeing what you seeing, some turning evident, also premature outflow N of the system.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
not to get ahead of ourselves, but look at the last two frames of the visible loop, I am starting to see more of a rolling motion

start of a more pronounced circulation?


I agree BAP. this thing is showing signs of building. thank you and everyone for the great post and graphics. they help people like me to understand what is happening and also gives us here a bit of heads up for things to come.
Here we go again lyons saying you don't have to worry about 97l condtions not favorable.I think its the last time i will ever watch the twc.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


yeah i dont know much whats gonna happen with the highs.. i think the track it takes is gonna rely more on strength. anyway i honestly am now thinking this could be ana. the circulation is very well defined.


The mid level circulation is but the lower level circulation is still getting organized. I think this could be Ana in the making.
also if this thing does develop it could get things going quickly - its about as small as carlos!
2029... 12.1N 51.0W ???
Quoting STORMMASTERG:
Here we go again lyons saying you don't have to worry about 97l condtions not favorable.I think its the last time i will ever watch the twc.


Steve is a good forecaster, but he is just saying what is happening currently, he is not looking at models, which are saying favorable conditions. He will change his tune if the NHC ups the probability of development. I think they should put them at medium at 2 pm.
The band of upper winds north of the system can actually benefit this storm, as it can form a focal point for a poleward outflow channel.

This was also seen for Andres with a band of upper wind sretching across the caribbean at that time.
Quoting HurricaneKing:


The mid level circulation is but the lower level circulation is still getting organized. I think this could be Ana in the making.


yeah, well the system is def getting better organized and the llc could be developing right now. dont meant to hype it but every frame has a better turning to it.
2041. MZV
97L looks decent for a small system - I think the NHC's interest in it will pick up. I suspect there will be recon to it around the 55W mark. Cost savings is one thing, but they need a pressure reading to decide what it is. I would presume the budget is built around the assumption of some recon in July.
2042. Drakoen
97L needs to moisten it's environment before it can expand convection. There is still a fair amount of black around the system.
ASCAT got part of the circulation
2044. IKE
Quoting STORMMASTERG:
Here we go again lyons saying you don't have to worry about 97l condtions not favorable.I think its the last time i will ever watch the twc.


What is unfavorable to him? Is he saying?
I don't want to sound stupid, but I can't help but notice what looks like banding, or is it just the way the storms have setup around it?
There is probably no doubt this system is organizing before us, but I want to hold out another 6-12 hrs before I can be sure this will become Td 2.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


yeah, well the system is def getting better organized and the llc could be developing right now. dont meant to hype it but every frame has a better turning to it.


I agree that's why I said it was getting better organized. I'm thinking that if the shear to the west moves out like forecasted then a td by tomorrow.
What I am most supprised about is the turning at the lower levels...

In the RGB loop the lower clouds are turning at a a pretty good clip.
Quoting Weather456:
There is probably no doubt this system is organizing before us, but I want to hold out another 6-12 hrs before I can be sure this will become Td 2.


you think we will see the NHC bump the chances up from yellow to orange?
Quoting IKE:


What is unfavorable to him? Is he saying?
He says once it moves further west winds aloft are to fast.But every day they have been weakening.I think the thing is that twc copys everything the nhc says.
good morning everyone I see we have invest 97l back on and forecasting to be a caribbean system can someone give me a proper update
2052. IKE
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


you think we will see the NHC bump the chances up from yellow to orange?


If it continues to look as good as it does, if not better...I say yes.

Quoting STORMMASTERG:
Here we go again lyons saying you don't have to worry about 97l condtions not favorable.I think its the last time i will ever watch the twc.
I NEVER WATCH THE TWC.


if that trough lifts out imo we'll have something real to track.
Quoting IKE:


If it continues to look as good as it does, if not better...I say yes.



then again they were burned with doing that for 93L, they may stay conservative for the 2pm and see if the organizational trend continues throughout the day.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
good morning everyone I see we have invest 97l back on and forecasting to be a caribbean system can someone give me a proper update



hey, you can check out my blog to get up to speed
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


then again they were burned with doing that for 93L, they may stay conservative for the 2pm and see if the organizational trend continues throughout the day.


Nah, they will probably mention it showing signs of organization and/or having become better organized. I see orange...perhaps red later tonight if the trend continues.
I don't see much dry air anymore according to water vapor - it's already expanding its moisture field, now pulling moisture from the dissipating upper trough ahead of it in its path. This "shear" that's out in front, too imo, will not be as much of a factor at the sfc where it is still developing and finally it may serve to aid in venting as it crosses into the eCaribbean.
2059. IKE
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


then again they were burned with doing that for 93L, they may stay conservative for the 2pm and see if the organizational trend continues throughout the day.


Based on the closeness to the islands...they better put some thought into the new TWO. It's only 500 miles +/-, from Barbados.
LOL there is another poll question we can do

only answer once

Which color will the circle be at 2pm

A) Yellow
B) Orange
C) Red
D) Circle will be removed

VOTE NOW!!
Well 93L never had much going on it its surface for much of its life.
Anyone know what's up with South Florida NEXRAD? It's been down for a few days now. All three stations.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
LOL there is another poll question we can do

only answer once

Which color will the circle be at 2pm

A) Yellow
B) Orange
C) Red
D) Circle will be removed

VOTE NOW!!


orange
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
LOL there is another poll question we can do

only answer once

Which color will the circle be at 2pm

A) Yellow
B) Orange
C) Red
D) Circle will be removed

VOTE NOW!!


B!!!
Lol we should do this every TWO update.
I vote orange,but i really think it should be red.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
LOL there is another poll question we can do

only answer once

Which color will the circle be at 2pm

A) Yellow
B) Orange
C) Red
D) Circle will be removed

VOTE NOW!!


I love this. I will go with A
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
LOL there is another poll question we can do

only answer once

Which color will the circle be at 2pm

A) Yellow
B) Orange
C) Red
D) Circle will be removed

VOTE NOW!!


c
14:45 UTC Nasa image shows more symmetrical central convection.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
LOL there is another poll question we can do

only answer once

Which color will the circle be at 2pm

A) Yellow
B) Orange
C) Red
D) Circle will be removed

VOTE NOW!!


It will be A but I think it should be B...
B. Orange.
2074. WxLogic
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
LOL there is another poll question we can do

only answer once

Which color will the circle be at 2pm

A) Yellow
B) Orange
C) Red
D) Circle will be removed

VOTE NOW!!


A
I'm more concerned with its troubling forward speed than any other inhibiting factor in the present.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
LOL there is another poll question we can do

only answer once

Which color will the circle be at 2pm

A) Yellow
B) Orange
C) Red
D) Circle will be removed

VOTE NOW!!


Orange
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
LOL there is another poll question we can do

only answer once

Which color will the circle be at 2pm

A) Yellow
B) Orange
C) Red
D) Circle will be removed

VOTE NOW!!


B
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
LOL there is another poll question we can do

only answer once

Which color will the circle be at 2pm

A) Yellow
B) Orange
C) Red
D) Circle will be removed

VOTE NOW!!

i vote b lol
Tropical wave in the EPAC showing some life as well:

Quoting WPBHurricane05:


c


ok we've had a, b, and c now.. d anyone? d?
Quoting extreme236:
14:45 UTC Nasa image shows more symmetrical central convection.


Would this be the same as a CDO?
2060. BurnedAfterPosting

A) Yellow
2083. Drakoen
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
LOL there is another poll question we can do

only answer once

Which color will the circle be at 2pm

A) Yellow
B) Orange
C) Red
D) Circle will be removed

VOTE NOW!!


B
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


ok we've had a, b, and c now.. d anyone? d?


B
I pessimistically vote A.
Quoting IKE:


Based on the closeness to the islands...they better put some thought into the new TWO. It's only 500 miles +/-, from Barbados.


Yeah

I suspect our MET service might issue a ''flood watch/warning'' later today or tonight....
2087. JRRP
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
LOL there is another poll question we can do

only answer once

Which color will the circle be at 2pm

A) Yellow
B) Orange
C) Red
D) Circle will be removed

VOTE NOW!!

D
:p
97L looks better now than it did a few hours ago. This is very interesting. Could this be Ana?
Quoting extreme236:


I'm thinking B or C...I can't decide. Depends on how they want to approach it.


yeah theres no telling what the nhc will do lol.
They could keep the yellow, too.
Quoting JRRP:

D


not to get on your case

but why do you think the circle will be removed?
Quoting JRRP:

D
B
Quoting GaleWeathers:
Anyone know what's up with South Florida NEXRAD? It's been down for a few days now. All three stations.


They are replacing the old radar with a new one
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
LOL there is another poll question we can do

only answer once

Which color will the circle be at 2pm

A) Yellow
B) Orange
C) Red
D) Circle will be removed

VOTE NOW!!

orange orange orange 1oo%
2094. WAHA
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
LOL there is another poll question we can do

only answer once

Which color will the circle be at 2pm

A) Yellow
B) Orange
C) Red
D) Circle will be removed

VOTE NOW!!

C
Definitely c
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


ok we've had a, b, and c now.. d anyone? d?


Who would vote for d? lol
Oooooo....97L is getting that "screaming eagle" look. Ana in the making?
What would keep 97L from rapid intensification? Sorry if thats a dumb question, im just curious..lol.
Quoting Weather456:


Who would vote for d? lol


JRRP did just for laughs :P
2099. JRRP
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


not to get on your case

but why do you think the circle will be removed?

just to make the difference
This blog should be its own day-time soap opera..


Will it devlop? Find out next time... Exept you don't find out next time beacuse the next episode is called D-MIN..
Quoting JRRP:

just to make the difference
Quoting JRRP:

just to make the difference


ah ok lol, would you like to recast your vote?
2102. Drakoen
Quoting alaina1085:
What would keep 97L from rapid intensification? Sorry if thats a dumb question, im just curious..lol.



Itself and marginal shear.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


JRRP did just for laughs :P


sarcasm?

LOL...
Quoting alaina1085:
What would keep 97L from rapid intensification? Sorry if thats a dumb question, im just curious..lol.


If it ends up in the wrong position, shear

As the disturbance enters the Caribbean, shear depends mainly on an upper ridge building over the area and the invest’s motion. If the ridge should not build far enough north, the system could be affect by northerly shear in the Southeast Caribbean and hinder development of the feature. However, if the system was to remain on its westerly path it should avoid much of the higher shear to the north regardless of how long it takes the ridge to build and the TUTT to move out. Most of the global models are in favour of a fast building ridge. If the storm continues to persist through the day, I suspect a re-designation of 97L.
2105. Drakoen
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


JRRP did just for laughs :P


It's: "He did it for the lolz"
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Oooooo....97L is getting that "screaming eagle" look. Ana in the making?


The "screaming eagle" is only a tropical wave being heavily sheared. 97L does not have a screaming eagle look. Our wave yesterday in the Antilles had a "screaming eagle" look, but not 97L
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


not to get on your case

but why do you think the circle will be removed?
Maybe he
Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
I NEVER WATCH THE TWC.
Why are you so angry ? Take off your cap locks and stop shouting. We can all hear fine. Thank you.
2108. sngalla
orange
Not sure why I am being reminded of Charley lol
2110. Drakoen
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Maybe he Why are you so angry ? Take off your cap locks and stop shouting. We can all hear fine. Thank you.


lol
Quoting alaina1085:
What would keep 97L from rapid intensification? Sorry if thats a dumb question, im just curious..lol.


Its forward speed.
2112. JRRP
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


ah ok lol, would you like to recast your vote?

A
Quoting Drakoen:


It's: "He did it for the lolz"


my bad then lolz

btw how do i upload an avatar.. i uploaded a pic and it said upload successful, now what? XD
i believe that correct answer were looking for is B.orange not A. LOL
2115. WAHA
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Why are you so angry ? Take off your cap locks and stop shouting. We can all hear fine. Thank you.

i couldn't've said it better myself.

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


my bad then lolz

btw how do i upload an avatar.. i uploaded a pic and it said upload successful, now what? XD
Now you wait for approval from admin
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Not sure why I am being reminded of Charley lol


ooohh your in trouble now. from now on, if a major strikes south florida, its all YOUR fault.
Thanks drake,456 and moonlight.
I was just curious about that because some storms do and some dont.
2119. Drakoen
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


my bad then lolz

btw how do i upload an avatar.. i uploaded a pic and it said upload successful, now what? XD


Upload pic into profile
Quoting JRRP:

A
A=unreal
What prize do I get when I win (I voted code red)?
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
LOL there is another poll question we can do

only answer once

Which color will the circle be at 2pm

A) Yellow
B) Orange
C) Red
D) Circle will be removed

VOTE NOW!!


I will go with B since I have noticed that B is often the correct answer on multiple choice tests. That's how I got through highschool (almost).
2123. JRRP
Quoting Drakoen:


It's: "He did it for the lolz"

explain me
I vote "B".
I choose A but I may be wrong but thats the fun

Quoting LiveFromTheCarolinas:


I will go with B since I have noticed that B is often the correct answer on multiple choice tests. That's how I got through highschool (almost).


LMAO... My choice was always C... explains why I graduated with a C average. Should have gone with B.
2127. IKE
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
What prize do I get when I win (I voted code red)?
The prize of a near ready storm.
Latest wv image looks like trouble in the making. Expert opinions please .
2130. Drakoen
I should take into consideration what forecaster is on duty today lol.
IKE, that thing is starting to look nice.
I vote b we could see a TD by monday
Good morning
2134. IKE
Looks to me like the center may go just north of Barbados...
2136. WAHA
Quoting LiveFromTheCarolinas:


I will go with B since I have noticed that B is often the correct answer on multiple choice tests. That's how I got through highschool (almost).

Almost?
No, i am sure you didn't finish because all you picked was b.
img
src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg" alt="" />
But I think it is C.
2137. Drakoen
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Latest wv image looks like trouble in the making. Expert opinions please .


There are no PhD's in here lol
Quoting STORMMASTERG:
The prize of a near ready storm.


Cool, as long as it's a very weak one.
2139. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:
IKE, that thing is starting to look nice.


Agree.
looking good this is higher than yellow
Quoting Drakoen:


Upload pic into profile


thx, apparently i uploaded it in the wrong place. >.> never was good with common sense :D



wow on the loop ike posted, look at the first frame, and then look at the last. if it continues this... just wow
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


ooohh your in trouble now. from now on, if a major strikes south florida, its all YOUR fault.


Herbert Box....

*Ducks and covers and waits for the blog to explode*
2143. WAHA
Quoting WAHA:

Almost?
No, i am sure you didn't finish because all you picked was b.
img
src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg" alt="" />
But I think it is C.

oops no image
Quoting IKE:
Looks to me like the center may go just north of Barbados...


Ike, I think you're right. The nudge from coriolis may be a positive sign that it's getting its act together and a low-level coc may be forming.
The hurricane hunters might want to investigate this invest in the upcomming days.
Looks to have some outflow.
2147. WxLogic
I'm pretty sure NHC will wait until 8PM or 2AM to give it some time through DMIN to see if it keeps up and/or builds more TSTM(s) around it, as well as get other sources to confirm better organization has occurred. At least that's what I would do... hehe.
Notice the convective band ahead of 97L is not being sheared. That is a trick I learn back in 04. That signals potential for continued development of this system.
Quoting weathersp:


Herbert Box....

*Ducks anc covers and waits for the blog to explode*


from the looks of this, it may go through BOTH hebert boxes *also ducks*
2150. beell
B
2151. IKE
Quoting stormdude77:


If that isn't a "B", then I need new glasses.

I may upgrade to "C"...
I just wish they'd run the HWRF and GFDL models...
2153. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:


If that isn't a "B", then I need new glasses.

I may upgrade to "C"...


It looks rather impressive.
Quoting IKE:
Looks to me like the center may go just north of Barbados...

If it does that could be trouble for me
2156. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


wow~
Quoting Weather456:
Notice the convective band ahead of 97L is not being sheared. That is a trick I learn back in 04. That signals potential for continued development of this system.


Thanks 456, I was noticing that as well. Good tip :)
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

If it does that could be trouble for me
me too
2159. IKE
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

If it does that could be trouble for me


What island....longitude?
This is no suprise to me this storm is getting better organized.It looked good tonight in 10kt shear.Now its entered the 5kt zone.
2161. WxLogic
Quoting CaneWarning:
I just wish they'd run the HWRF and GFDL models...


To see how it explodes?... hehe...
2162. centex
B as of now, maybe C by 2PM.
Good Morning!
I see we have 97L again.
It's looking much better today.
Quoting CaneWarning:
I just wish they'd run the HWRF and GFDL models...


They have never been run on 97L, even the first time it was named an invest. Maybe now they'll make it a priority.
I will say one of our mets in Tampa said the west coast of Florida would have to watch this one if anything got going. He said we had a southwest flow over the state. Now, was he just saying it so you'd watch the news the next time its on? Maybe... But, he is right, I think we are under a southwest flow right now.
Agree, and thank you "burneafterposting", learn a lot from your "posting".You were the only one that base in your knowledge made an accurate forecast.
Morning Chicklit... yup the comeback kid as Ike said. lol.
Quoting SavannahStorm:


They have never been run on 97L, even the first time it was named an invest. Maybe now they'll make it a priority.


I know, I just wonder why not though.
2169. IKE
System is quite impressive with each new frame. The outflow/appearance has really improved.
Quoting IKE:
System is quite impressive with each new frame. The outflow/appearance has really improved.


Agreed. That's why I asked about the rapid intensification.
Quoting SavannahStorm:


They have never been run on 97L, even the first time it was named an invest. Maybe now they'll make it a priority.


I'm not very concerned with the global models at this stage, especially not the GFDL which is very poor in the cyclogenesis phase. I think the LBAR and BAMS more accurately depict what's happening in its present phase of development...and just good ol' natural "seeing is believing" look as sats, etc, than models.
Quoting Drakoen:


There are no PhD's in here lol
I only meant folks like you,456, Drak and whoever might know more than me which is just about everyone on here. I only go by what it "looks" like to me.
2175. pottery
Hmmmmm, not sure about passing north of Barbados. But deffinitely north of Trinidad. May get some showers here. Would love some heavy rain.
2176. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:
System is quite impressive with each new frame. The outflow/appearance has really improved.


If it's able to take full advantage of the current low shear conditions and warm SSTs then it should be able to fight off any low enough shear... say 20k or less and still keep its identity.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I only meant folks like you,456, Drak and whoever might know more than me which is just about everyone on here. I only go by what it "looks" like to me.
Ooops and Ike
If this system develops,i think twc will be emberessed.Esecially after lyons saying upper winds are to strong.
2179. WxLogic
Quoting pottery:
Hmmmmm, not sure about passing north of Barbados. But deffinitely north of Trinidad. May get some showers here. Would love some heavy rain.


Hehe... Pot... be careful for what you wish!!!
2180. Grothar
I agree 97L is looking much better in the GOES images. Most sites agree about less wind sheer. However, does anyone have any information on the Saharan dust and the effect it may have on the system. It has been very hazy here in S. Fla and through the Caribbean. Welcome back Drak. This is only my second day on this bog, but have always enjoyed your comments.
ok be back in a few minutes
Quoting IKE:


What island....longitude?
He is in Jamaica
I vote "C - red" because I think it's already closing off a circulation. "B" voters are probably right, though. The NHC likes to move in "one small step" instead of leaps-- like when they need to move a forecast track a lot but do it over two or three advisories.
Quoting pottery:
Hmmmmm, not sure about passing north of Barbados. But deffinitely north of Trinidad.


Hey, Pottery. That was my thinking too last evening. But, if it's getting its act together, the natural coriolis initially would nudge it a few degrees north even, despite steering I believe.
2185. dearmas
Quoting CaneWarning:
I will say one of our mets in Tampa said the west coast of Florida would have to watch this one if anything got going. He said we had a southwest flow over the state. Now, was he just saying it so you'd watch the news the next time its on? Maybe... But, he is right, I think we are under a southwest flow right now.


which met??
C, unless the hurricane center is being conservative it has clear banding and rotation and has a high likelihood of being a tropical depression
Quoting STORMMASTERG:
If this system develops,i think twc will be emberessed.Esecially after lyons saying upper winds are to strong.


Only the TWC? I can think of a few others. But heck we are all humans, I have been wrong with 93L, and the world hasn't ended.
I say high chance of ts by tomorrow,this thing looks better than some tds in the past.
Quoting Grothar:
I agree 97L is looking much better in the GOES images. Most sites agree about less wind sheer. However, does anyone have any information on the Saharan dust and the effect it may have on the system. It has been very hazy here in S. Fla and through the Caribbean. Welcome back Drak. This is only my second day on this bog, but have always enjoyed your comments.


The Dust is pretty much gone out ahead of it the prior wave was like a sponge and absorbed most of it.
Isn't it kind of early to be predicting where 97L is heading?
2191. WxLogic
Quoting Grothar:
I agree 97L is looking much better in the GOES images. Most sites agree about less wind sheer. However, does anyone have any information on the Saharan dust and the effect it may have on the system. It has been very hazy here in S. Fla and through the Caribbean. Welcome back Drak. This is only my second day on this bog, but have always enjoyed your comments.


In my opinion SAL will no longer be an issue for this system... since the SAL that has traversed through the CARIB and now in the S GOM has been decreasing and/or moving into the EPAC.


invest 97L this time yesterday



invest 97L right now
for as smart as some of you are with weather; I am going out on a limb to say there are not too many spelling bee champs in here!
2194. Drakoen
Brennan is a PhD. I'm still going to go with orange.
Quoting Grothar:
However, does anyone have any information on the Saharan dust and the effect it may have on the system.


SAL is no longer a factor. Plenty of moisture in the area and it's creating good lift now on its own.
2196. FTLGUY
Kind of a "Big" leap for the NHC to pull the plug on 97L yesterday?

Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
I vote "C - red" because I think it's already closing off a circulation. "B" voters are probably right, though. The NHC likes to move in "one small step" instead of leaps-- like when they need to move a forecast track a lot but do it over two or three advisories.
2197. Drakoen
Quoting Grothar:
I agree 97L is looking much better in the GOES images. Most sites agree about less wind sheer. However, does anyone have any information on the Saharan dust and the effect it may have on the system. It has been very hazy here in S. Fla and through the Caribbean. Welcome back Drak. This is only my second day on this bog, but have always enjoyed your comments.


Thanks! Appreciate it!
ok vote
A it becomes a td at the 8:00pm update
B it becomes a td tomorrow updates
C it becomes a td tuesday
D it dosen't become anything but the invest that it is now
E it becomes ts ana in any of the above dates
2199. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:
Brennan is a PhD. I'm still going to go with orange.


Ohh so after looking up some credentials you then decide now... hehe.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok vote
A it becomes a td at the 8:00pm update
B it becomes a td tomorrow updates
C it becomes a td tuesday
D it dosen't become anything but the invest that it is now
E it becomes ts ana in any of the above dates


I vote "E"
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok vote
A it becomes a td at the 8:00pm update
B it becomes a td tomorrow updates
C it becomes a td tuesday
D it dosen't become anything but the invest that it is now
E it becomes ts ana in any of the above dates


B
Quoting robie1conobie:
for as smart as some of you are with weather; I am going out on a limb to say there are not too many spelling bee champs in here!


Luckily this isnt a grammar blog. Plus some here english isnt their first language.
2203. Drakoen
Quoting WxLogic:


Ohh so after looking up some credentials you then decide now... hehe.


I already went with B before I considered that LOL!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok vote
A it becomes a td at the 8:00pm update
B it becomes a td tomorrow updates
C it becomes a td tuesday
D it dosen't become anything but the invest that it is now
E it becomes ts ana in any of the above dates


its honestly too early to tell for a TD. remember it can die just as quickly as it organized right now. but if this trend keeps on going then B.
2205. WAHA
Quoting robie1conobie:
for as smart as some of you are with weather; I am going out on a limb to say there are not too many spelling bee champs in here!

It's called lolspeak. We all can spell, it's just we need a faster way of communicating.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok vote
A it becomes a td at the 8:00pm update
B it becomes a td tomorrow updates
C it becomes a td tuesday
D it dosen't become anything but the invest that it is now
E it becomes ts ana in any of the above dates

If it continues like this B
2207. JRRP
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


its honestly too early to tell for a TD. remember it can die just as quickly as it organized right now. but if this trend keeps on going then B.

true
B again :)
2209. Drakoen
15:15z imagery shows some deepening convection so we will see what happens...
2210. WAHA
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok vote
A it becomes a td at the 8:00pm update
B it becomes a td tomorrow updates
C it becomes a td tuesday
D it dosen't become anything but the invest that it is now
E it becomes ts ana in any of the above dates

B and E
Invest 97L is looki better by the minute. I had a feeling this would happen once it reach 50W. We may have a TD in the making.
2212. hurfins
Quoting claimsadjuster:


I vote "E"
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok vote
A it becomes a td at the 8:00pm update
B it becomes a td tomorrow updates
C it becomes a td tuesday
D it dosen't become anything but the invest that it is now
E it becomes ts ana in any of the above dates
I think we've got a good system going. Good contributions, all. Thanks.

I'll be back when Acorn stops polling! LOL.
2214. Drakoen
That upper level trough is either going to make or break 97L.
2216. JRRP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok vote
A it becomes a td at the 8:00pm update
B it becomes a td tomorrow updates
C it becomes a td tuesday
D it dosen't become anything but the invest that it is now
E it becomes ts ana in any of the above dates

D
2217. pottery
SAL is pretty non-existant in the Trop Atl right now.
Visibility in Trinidad 11 miles.
Temp 90 F
Humidity 47%
pressure 1015
wind ENE 11 mph

Not much to say about that..

2218. WAHA
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
Invest 97L is looki better by the minute. I had a feeling this would happen once it reach 50W. We may have a TD in the making.

no kidding.
Quoting WAHA:

B and E

sorry only one
hurfin ???? I am just giving my thoughts....
2221. Drakoen
I can't see Brennan saying the convection remains disorganized at this hour.
Quoting Drakoen:
That upper level trough is either going to make or break 97L.


do you think the trough is that important in the possible formation of 97L?
Nice, 97 is getting it together. SAL is much less now, and conditions at the moment are quite good for it's development. 97 is getting organized nicely. I'll vote B in the poll now for 97, although with NHC logic it may be a C type deal. I'm not sure about the long term future of 97, though. If it does head north, it could end up weakening greatly, or fizzle.
F:strait to TS status w/out td status first.



Probably w/be based on quickscat and sat presentation and should be named in the next 48hrs,IMO
There was an Anna in this very same location

2226. WAHA
I will be back later. gonna show someone a video I made.
Quoting TampaMishy:
Isn't it kind of early to be predicting where 97L is heading?


Yes other then West currently heading towards the Windward Islands in a day or so.
2228. Drakoen
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


do you think the trough is that important in the possible formation of 97L?


Yes. It is either going to send 97L through the shredder or provide a poleward outflow channel.
These models take it into my area:



Quoting Weather456:
There was an Anna in this very same location



1969. Yup.
Ok to answer both polls i say red circle and TD tomorrow


Not that much dry air and low shear for at least the next day but then shear steadily increases especially is this moves north so i think a td might form but probably not Ana
I was interested in what HaboobRsweet would say on 97L I did not see any posts from him but curious what he thinks.
If this thing goes into the gulf with low shear,watch out.The gulf temps are really warm and haven't been touched.
I think our 97L is looking quite good right now. Anything is possible.
2235. aquak9
what was the question again?

If ANYONE wanted to learn about primary cyclogenesis, now's the day to lurk and LEARN. Good posters, good comments backed up with graphics, decent textbook situation, and respectable bloggers.

I got MY inverted V, so I'm happy.
Quoting Drakoen:


Yes. It is either going to send 97L through the shredder or provide a poleward outflow channel.


interesting. so if it lifts out then 97L gets extra help, but if it stays then it gives 97L extra uhhmm, not help? seems like a hit or miss situation.
I don't like the looks of those tracks. A Charlie type tracking.
"Ana" by this time tomorrow? Could be at the rate its spinning up now but, storms that are not very organized before getting to the eastern Carrib don't usually develope until they get to western Carrib. Eastern Carrib is usually kind of a "dead zone" for developement.
But it sure is looking impressive right now.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Ok to answer both polls i say red circle and TD tomorrow


Not that much dry air and low shear for at least the next day but then shear steadily increases especially is this moves north so i think a td might form but probably not Ana

Shear in the Caribbean is decreasing as the TUTT moves out
97L should be headed towards the south bahama's area,and next weekend could be a interesting one for south FL!!!!,IMO
These cold tops will stay,no shear =5kt will not kill them.So this is def a storm in the making.
I do believe we have LLC or one is forming

2243. Drakoen
97L at it's current latitude cannot escape the Upper level trough. The trough needs to move northward.
I think we should give some credit to the Reed man on here.. He never gave up on it and now everyone is talking about a possible td in the making..

Actually everyone deserves credit on here, I love hearing everyones opinions and predictions. I have learned alot from being on this blog.

BTW: Tampaspin is still looking for the shear of his lol
wait wait wait lol

you cant start another poll while one is still going on, it just confuses people lol

why not wait until after the 2pm update to do that poll?
Quoting Weather456:
There was an Anna in this very same location



30 years ago.. i wonder if this storm will follow the same fate. if it forms getting shredded by the trough and dying in the east caribbean. possible.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Shear in the Caribbean is decreasing as the TUTT moves out

will it move out fast enough?

heres an eerily similar Ana from 79
Hopefully 97l can develop enough with 5kt shear and even if shear is strong gets through the shear zone and has enough to get into the gulf.Gulf has low shear right now,and blazin temps.
Quoting Weather456:
There was an Anna in this very same location



Do the Windward Islands have their own weather service that broadcasts on tropical systems about to effect them just wondering if there was any news on the invest in that region.
2250. WxLogic
Quoting all4hurricanes:

what about north of the carribean cause thats where this thing is supposed to be heading

heres an eerily similar Ana from 79


Would be funny if it has the same fate...
2251. WAHA
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
"Ana" by this time tomorrow? Could be at the rate its spinning up now but, storms that are not very organized before getting to the eastern Carrib don't usually develope until they get to western Carrib. Eastern Carrib is usually kind of a "dead zone" for developement.
But it sure is looking impressive right now.

Dolly, Fay, Gustav, Omar and Paloma all formed in the carribean last year.
Dr. Masters promised an update this afternoon; mostly likely will appear after the 2 pm discussion.
Quoting sporteguy03:


Do the Windward Islands have their own weather service that broadcasts on tropical systems about to effect them just wondering if there was any news on the invest in that region.


I'm in the Leewards but they are monitoring the disturbance.
Nothin like a good invest to get the blog moving at light speed.....
lol, Dr. Lyons barely even mentioned 97L...
2256. Drakoen
Quoting WxLogic:


Would be funny if it has the same fate...


I was thinking that too lol
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
I don't like the looks of those tracks. A Charlie type tracking.
You always say that.
Dead zone? I often wonder where that came from especially after Felix, Charley, Omar, etc.
Morning PDoug, good to see ya.

456 - pressure has started to fall at 41040 as well. Should continue to drop as 97 approaches. It should be an interesting buoy to watch today...A fair clip north of the system, but still should provide some data.
2261. aquak9
2229- bam shallow for another 24-48, then a whole new ballgame. Bam mid another 24-36, then bam deep runs, maybe lgem.

Who knows, maybe GFS will sober up by then.
Quoting WxLogic:


Would be funny if it has the same fate...


Actually the name "Chris" has had a history of downfalls as well, I remember Dr.M doing a blog on him in 2006.
Quoting WAHA:

Dolly, Fay, Gustav, Omar and Paloma all formed in the carribean last year.

but those storms were all in august except for dolly but she formed in the western Caribbean
2264. DDR
Quoting Weather456:
I do believe we have LLC or one is forming


Lets hope it doesn't rapidly intensify,the islands will welcome the rain,thats for sure.
Quoting SavannahStorm:
lol, Dr. Lyons barely even mentioned 97L...


They're short on time, commercials and all for travel, etc. Only soundbites, like the evening news. LOL. They hardly mention anything any more unless is has been named a TD. I don't watch them anymore, consequently.
Quoting WAHA:

Dolly, Fay, Gustav, Omar and Paloma all formed in the carribean last year.


yes but only omar could form in the east caribbean. all the others could not get started in the east caribbean. well fay did too be she wasn't particularly strong, she just was moving very slow and landfalled in florida 4 times XD
Dr. Lyons did his best to avoid mentioning the "invest", his words:" In the Mean time there is another wave approaching the island that will bring a couple of showers to the antilles"
2268. Grothar
Thanks to all for the answers on the SAL. Since I am a novice to this blog, I shall probabaly ask more questions, than provide opinions. Hope no one minds. There has been mention of a trough over SE U.S. Does anyone have any idea as to the effect, if any, it may have on the direction of ANY systems which approach the Caribbean? If I am correct, the current models indicate a more southerly track. Also, please excuse me my writing, since English is not my first language.
2269. juniort
no news here in Barbados as yet
2270. Drakoen
Wx Update, E Caribbean, Sat18, 9a

Morning graphical QuickScat: ABCs & Venezuela W of 66W ENE-E@13-20 with a few squalls to 35k, mainly N of 12N / E of 66W to Trinidad & Grenada E@0-10 with isolated squalls to 30k / just W of Windwards ENE-E@10-17 / W of Leewards ENE@16-22 with scattered squalls to 30k / Virgins & PuertoRico ENE@15-20 / DomRep ENE-E@12-17.



TropicalWAVE near 60W:
--Strong, high-amplitude WAVE near E Caribbean along 17N/59W...12N/63W, moving W-WNW@15. To gauge risk for Tropical LO formation, I look for the following 3 criteria: squalls that are abundant, focused, and persistent at the focal point. This morning, squalls have become more-abundant & focused at 16N/59W. If these squalls persist over the next 12-24 hrs, a Tropical LO could form.

--Typically, such squall activity surges & wanes several times before becoming persistent-enough to generate a self-sustaining Tropical LO. Thus, it is unlikely (but not impossible - I'd estimate a 10% chance) a LO will form before this area moves W of VirginIslands & PuertoRico tomorrow. Wind-shear of 40-50k is decreasing, but should help prevent formation of a Tropical LO.

--NOAA this morning began mentioning a low (less-than-30%) chance of Tropical LOW formation over next 48hrs with this feature.

--Beyond tomorrow, Apex of WAVE should lie somewhere near the GreaterAntilles (Hispanola & Cuba), which, combined with likelihood of persistent wind-shear, should prevent formation of a Tropical LOW.

Link
Quoting jurakantaino:
Dr. Lyons did his best to avoid mentioning the "invest", his words:" In the Mean time there is another wave approaching the island that will bring a couple of showers to the antilles"
Plus upper winds are not favorable for formation further west/twc is a channel of no reliability,they only make you seem to think that.
2273. Drakoen
Quoting Grothar:
Thanks to all for the answers on the SAL. Since I am a novice to this blog, I shall probabaly ask more questions, than provide opinions. Hope no one minds. There has been mention of a trough over SE U.S. Does anyone have any idea as to the effect, if any, it may have on the direction of ANY systems which approach the Caribbean? If I am correct, the current models indicate a more southerly track. Also, please excuse me my writing, since English is not my first language.


Your syntax, diction, and grammar is better than a lot here lol.
2274. WAHA
Quoting all4hurricanes:

but those storms were all in august except for dolly but she formed in the western Caribbean

Omar october Paloma november
Yea, SJ I'm seeing what appears to be a LLC so that buoy info should be interesting and the TWO.
Quoting DDR:

Lets hope it doesn't rapidly intensify,the islands will welcome the rain,thats for sure.


dont think it will, its moving a little too fast, has an upper level trough that needs to move, heat potential isn't that high but i could be wrong about that part.
2277. IKE
Quoting jurakantaino:
Dr. Lyons did his best to avoid mentioning the "invest", his words:" In the Mean time there is another wave approaching the island that will bring a couple of showers to the antilles"


jeez doc...go surf....

Quoting Drakoen:
That upper level trough is either going to make or break 97L.


Hey Drak,

Lol little sucker just noticed 97 is back up just looking at obs out there and for now i cant fine a surface circulation but convection has somewhat consolidated overnight i'll give it that.Now as far as its future track a deepening trof off low pressure along the southeast coast should induce shear and a northwesterly turn eventually.

PS...Just ran an infrared loop and yes some pretty decent outflow is starting to take shape.
2279. JRRP
where is the dead zone?
2280. WxLogic
I wouldn't bother much looking at how 12Z GFS handles this one as it did not initialize it correctly. 00Z should be a good run... we're lucky of 18Z comes out to be a decent one.
2281. pottery
Trinidad weather now
90 f
47% humid
11 miles vis
wind ENE 10 mph
pressure 1015

not much in that...
Okay .. what does all of this mean for someone who is leaving Thursday out of Mobile, AL on a cruise to Cozumel? Is it gonna be bumpy?
Stormjunkie this observation is key as well, let's see if the winds turn to the NE and goes counter-clockwise when 97L comes near if so there might be something low level there.


Grantley Adams, Barbados (Airport)
Updated: 55 min 29 sec ago
87 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 62%
Dew Point: 76 °F
Wind: 23 mph from the East
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.99 in
Visibility: 15.0 miles
Clouds: Few 1772 ft
Mostly Cloudy 29528 ft
(Above Ground Level)

Mornin' SJ. Something to track finally!
2285. Drakoen
New Blog
Yep, some would downcast even a developing system. Even after they were wrong last night about 97L being gone.
new blog!!!
Quoting Drakoen:


hmm, the main blob of convection in the center looks like its expanding. interesting.
97L is starting to ventilate and still headed due west , at least on close up visible sat imagery. TD by 11pm tonight if this keeps up , imo.
Quoting JRRP:
where is the dead zone?


The Eastern Caribbean
dr steve lyons didnt spend more than 2 seconds discussing 97l in the tropical update it was like it wasnt even there he spent more time talking about the rain in florida i live in swest florida it hasent rained here in 3 weeks
2293. juniort
i should probably introduce myself here and say that I'm new here, so folks help me along. i am also watching 97L carefully, but no infor as yet from Barbados met service
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


yes but only omar could form in the east caribbean. all the others could not get started in the east caribbean. well fay did too be she wasn't particularly strong, she just was moving very slow and landfalled in florida 4 times XD
Gustav formed around 67 w which I think is still basically eastern Caribbean. Has anyone noticed the flare-up of convection with the blob that moved through the islands yesterday. I think it is s of Puerto Rico now.
Grothar and juniort welcome and you will get all the information you need and then some. There are some very knowledgeable people here and then there are the trolls so take some comments with a grain of salt.
2296. juniort
Thank you StormwatcherCI for your welcome
I vote B
Quoting WAHA:

Omar october Paloma november

I know but I meant august or later. anyway the main point is the history of hurricanes from last year do not support the notion of a cyclone developing in the eastern Caribbean in July
2299. Gorty
A couple models with the latest run does strenthen AL97. But, the HWARF and GFDL is "saying" anything. If those two arn't saying anything, then it probably won't develop. Because isn't the HWARF and the GFDL trustworthy models?

The SHF5 model brings this thing to a Cat 1 at 120 hours.
2300. Gorty
When you look at this model, http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8midshr.html

Do you look at both levels, or just one or the other to determine if something will form?