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Two African waves that may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:59 PM GMT on August 10, 2011

Hello everyone, it's Jeff Masters back with you again after a long stretch of vacation. Now that the peak part of hurricane season is upon us, I'll be with you every day for the next few months, in what promises to be an unusually active Atlantic hurricane season. We've got several threats to talk about today, most notably a strong African wave near 12.5°N 30.5°W, about 400 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This system, dubbed Invest 92L by NHC, is moving west to west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before arriving near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands early next week. Recent visible satellite loops show that 92L is beginning to develop a surface circulation, and heavy thunderstorms are slowly building along the western edge of the center. However, a separate area of heavy thunderstorms lies 400 miles to the east, just south of the Cape Verde Islands, and this blob is interfering with consolidation of the center near the blob of heavy thunderstorms at 30.5°W. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air from Africa lies just to the west of 92L, but the atmosphere in the immediate vicinity of 92L is moist, so dry air is currently not a problem for the storm. The SHIPS model is diagnosing low shear, 5 - 10 knots, over 92L, but the University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows that moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots is affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 26.5° - 27°C, which is very close to the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Noon satellite photo of Invest 92L.

Forecast for 92L
Low to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming three days, which should allow the storm to steadily organize, assuming it can shut out any incursions of dry air that might intrude. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show little or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook. Given the recent improvement in the satellite appearance of 92L, I would put these odds at 30%. A steady west to west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which would put the storm in the vicinity of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Sunday. On Saturday and Sunday, 92L is expected to enter a region where an upper-level low pressure system will bring high wind shear of 20 knots to the storm, which should slow development. This upper-level low is also expected to turn 92L more to the northwest, so the storm may pass north of the Lesser Antilles. It is too early to know if 92L will recurve out to sea and potentially threaten Bermuda, or continue to the northwest towards the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 2. NASA MODIS image taken at 10:40am EDT 8/10/11 of the tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa. The GFS model is predicting this system will develop into a tropical storm early next week. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa
A strong tropical wave currently emerging from the coast of Africa near 8°N has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it, and has the potential to develop early next week once it moves past the Cape Verde Islands. The GFS model has been developing this system into a tropical storm in several of its recent runs. A westerly track towards the Lesser Antilles is expected by the GFS model.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting presslord:


?!?!?! you have obviously missed my recent ridge humping material...



hmmm -- pretty sure we close to an "x" rating! lol
1502. FLdewey
Quoting nash28:
Guys....

LOOOOONG ways out still. We still do not even have a closed circ for the models to run yet.


True, but that usually doesn't slow them down.

Florida may actually see some sun today... although the rain was nice for da nature.
1503. P451
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Atack of the I Name:(Worst of the I's in BOLD)
2000: Isaac, Category 4; No US landfall
2001: Iris, Category 4; No US landfall(Retired)
2002: Isidore, Category 3; Landfall on US(Retired)
2003: Isabel, Category 5; Landfall On US(Retired)
2004: Ivan, Category 5; Landfall On US(Retired)

2005: Irene, Category 2; No US Landfall
2006: Isaac, Category 1; No US Landfall
2007: Ingrid, Tropical Storm; No US Landfall
2008: Ike, Category 4; Landfall On US(Retired)
2009: Ida, Category 2; Landfall On US, she was mean but not the worst
2010: Igor, Cateory 4; No US Landfall(Retired)
2011: Irene, COMING SOON...


The timing of the I storms just seems to coincide with ripe conditions. A bit of a coincidence of course given the period of the season you would be in by the time you get to the I.
ATCF update/change to 92L's 0600Z info:

AL, 92, 2011081106, , BEST, 0, 127N, 328W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 275, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Quoting portcharlotte:
I just can not see any US threats with that trough hanging around off the east coast. Levi and JB are mentioning that there is more potential upcoming. I am not seeing it ...maybe some close calls with the weak left side of the tropical storms brushing the coast IMO.


For now, US threats would have to come from the SW, out of the Caribbean or GoM/BoC area. Western GoM is protected by high pressure currently, so a TC would likely track generally north and north east toward the Central GoM coast or West Florida coast.
Quoting stormpetrol:
If the center of 92L has relocated further south, then I think it could become a much more potential threat for the lesser antilles, just saying


Not according to latest ATCF

AL 92 2011081106 BEST 0 129N 330W 25 1010 LO
AL 92 2011081112 BEST 0 131N 340W 25 1010 LO
Hurricane Season Progression Comparison...
1933: 6 Named Storms(3rd
1969: 3 Named Storms(5th
1995: 7 Named Storms(2nd
1998: 1 Named Storms(6th
2004: 5 Named Storms(4th
2005: 9 Named Storms(1st
2007: 5 Named Storms(4th
2008: 6 Named Storms(3rd
2010: 3 Named Storms(5th
2011: 5 Named Storms~ 6 to 8 NS by next week possible(4th

I'm going out on a limb, saying that we will get to J before september.
Well let me try this again all in one.I must of hit a bad button or my post or going to the land of the dead.First hello Ike and Aquak.Ike so far do you see anything different from last year?Press ,amazing that Ike was the last hurricane to hit US? Almost 3 years, hope it continues.Nash good to see you reminds me of the good ole blog days.For the northern Gulf Coast,if this trough set up continues I think the cape verde season will be active, but not for the conus, our friends in the Islands could bear the brunt ala 1995.Really feel if the US. Gulf Coast is going to take a hit it will come in late sept or early oct.Probably from home brew or from the sw/nw carrib moving north.Ok maybe this one will show up lol.
1510. ncstorm
GFS 500mb Height/Anomaly Forecasts..Day 8..will be interesting to see how this set up in the next run..

1511. Relix
Quoting serialteg:


relix smellix qlq hay pa... seein 40kt barbs on that cv wave reminds me of hugo
.

Got any waves off Emily? haha!
Quoting zoomiami:



hmmm -- pretty sure we close to an "x" rating! lol


That's PG-13 at best in this day and age :-) I have a feeling Michael here's worse at 3yr old day care
P451,
Precisely and that is exactly why I storms are strong...
I typically Occurs during the season between August 20th to September 15th, the peak...
Quoting AussieStorm:

Do you see what's in the SW Carib in that run?

Hey SJ, How ya been mate!


Scott that is the area of development those of us on the northern gulf coast are most concearned with. The CV storms can make it all the way here but, it's the Yucatan Channel south that I watch for. Especially later in the year.
Quoting portcharlotte:
I just can not see any US threats with that trough hanging around off the east coast. Levi and JB are mentioning that there is more potential upcoming. I am not seeing it ...maybe some close calls with the weak left side of the tropical storms brushing the coast IMO.


Until we get rid of this negative NAO it will be quite difficult for these cv ways to make that trek. It has been in place all summer thus far.
Time is ticking, and as each day passes, we're getting closer and closer to the end of hurricane season.
Quoting StormJunkie:


That's PG-13 at best in this day and age :-) I have a feeling Michael here's worse at 3yr old day care


Hi SJ -- long time no see. How's the little guy?
Quoting RitaEvac:
Time is ticking, and as each day passes, we're getting closer and closer to the end of hurricane season.


I'm for that. 2 months from now it will pretty much be over !!
Looks like the Cape Verde season is starting. Already got 2 waves near Africa that could develop. It's only August 11th and soon we may already be on the G storm!!! This is quite an active start to the season, and the peak is yet to come.
1520. HCW
Latest 93L model runs from the NHC

Quoting Chucktown:


I'm for that. 2 months from now it will pretty much be over !!


But we all know between now and then, things will have changed dramatically. Were so close to ending the season in a sense but the dangerous part is knocking on the door at the same time
1523. P451
I see this morning 6z GFS is no longer retarded. Not that I would put any real faith in this run either. Models are what they are when you're beyond 72 hours. I don't trust these "half" runs of 6z and 18z either. This one we pick up the action - oh I forget - 84hours out?




I don't think Bermuda would appreciate it.

Jrweatherman, you do realize that would nearly tie us with 2005?
Katrina was at the end of AUG.

I could see what u say happening, but it depends on what happens right now...
92L: Possible NS
93L: Likely NS
trough split of E coast: unlikely NS; though possible
Two other systems in the long range( Caribbean system goes into gulf on GFS, and then another Potent Tropical wave shown at the end of the run...

So, (The ones i think will Form)
92L: Gert
93L: Franklin

Trough split, Possible Harvey
Caribbean system shown by GFS; Possible Irene
Tropical wave shown at end: Possible Jose, Still not sure if TC Formation will happen, too far out...
and that would put us at your prediction by mid/end August, though I have a feeling that a couple of these possible storms wont make it...
Quoting P451:


The timing of the I storms just seems to coincide with ripe conditions. A bit of a coincidence of course given the period of the season you would be in by the time you get to the I.


Only exception to that rule was Ida, she formed in November. She wasn't so bad at landfall, but boy when she became extratropical, she was pretty bad up and down the east coast.
1527. ncstorm


P451,
Neither does Nova Scotia...
1529. HCW
92L model runs from the NHC

1531. Grothar
My blog is done. I am going to take a nap now. I will update any new information between naps.
I think what we need to keep in mind is that the supposed pattern change is supposed to take place anywhere from approximately 8-15 days. all these models that are being shown are at day 7, 8, 10...

from what I recall, Levi was saying towards the end of this month the pattern change would take place with the troughs being displaced westward

unless of course things have changed....
SHIPS on 92L:
70 Mph Tropical Storm at peak

SHIPS on 93L:
110 MPH Category 2
So if I is the worst letter, then what is the best? B storms maybe?
1536. P451
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Not according to latest ATCF

AL 92 2011081106 BEST 0 129N 330W 25 1010 LO
AL 92 2011081112 BEST 0 131N 340W 25 1010 LO


Hmm..





(Image 1145Z)

Well, that's pretty much a junk system right now.

It's interesting because I didn't get excited about the wave when it exited Africa. I wanted it to persist first. It ended up persisting. Then started looking really good that one morning it got declared. Hours later it look like trash losing all it's convection, showing multiple circulations, got elongated, etc... Since then nothing impressive.

IMO, even with the trough hanging out on the east coast, it would have to move the Big Bermuda High out of the way for storms to recurve well east of the US, and Emily should be a good example of strong ringing over the Atlantic followed by strong troughing over the east coast, strong ridging over the plains, and strong troughing over the west coast. With that all said there is a lack of a mid-Atlantic trough, unlike last year when we saw storms, recurve well east of Bermuda, so this year is not like last year as some have already begun to proclaim it to be. I see a pattern right now where storms would recurve, but a lot closer to the US like Earl did last year, perhaps even closer for a brush of those states. Now it remains to be seen if this pattern will change and open the doors for Cape Verde storms making the long trek into the GOM, I believe in order for that to happen the Ridge over Texas has to retrograde towards the 4 corners region bringing the troughiness back into the GOM with the western flank of the Bermuda High extending further west.
The 1200Z update for 93L. Winds are up to 25 knots (30 mph):

AL, 93, 2011081112, , BEST, 0, 103N, 215W, 25, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting LongGlassTube:



You have WUMail.
1540. P451
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
P451,
Neither does Nova Scotia...


Yeah, that would be ugly. Real ugly.

But, you take these runs with a grain of salt right now.

IMO, if 92L develops it will happen north of the islands. SAL & outflow from 93L could impede development, pending how strong 93L is by that point.
Quoting NJ2S:


Looks awful close to the mid Atlantic... I know it's WAY too far out to tell and our focus should be first on the islands and the southeast .... But does it look like it will curve out to sea after it makes that close approach or do those of us in the mid Atlantic and northeast need to be concerned.....???


No need to be concerned yet, just keep a close eye on it. Make sure you are also prepared.
IMO, even with the trough hanging out on the east coast, it would have to move the Big Bermuda High out of the way for storms to recurve well east of the US, and Emily should be a good example of strong ringing over the Atlantic followed by strong troughing over the east coast, strong ridging over the plains, and strong troughing over the west coast. With that all said there is a lack of a mid-Atlantic trough, unlike last year when we saw storms, recurve well east of Bermuda, so this year is not like last year as some have already begun to proclaim it to be. I see a pattern right now where storms would recurve, but a lot closer to the US like Earl did last year, perhaps even closer for a brush of those states. Now it remains to be seen if this pattern will change and open the doors for Cape Verde storms making the long trek into the GOM, I believe in order for that to happen the Ridge over Texas has to retrograde towards the 4 corners region bringing the troughiness back into the GOM with the western flank of the Bermuda High extending further west.


Couldnt Agree MORE!!!
Back later
Being in a drought and never seeing rain or thunderstorms this past year, I'm totally unprepared for a storm barreling towards TX right now.
Even if one was forecasted to hit us, we would all be like "Yea right, the drought always wins out"
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
SHIPS on 92L:
70 Mph Tropical Storm at peak

SHIPS on 93L:
110 MPH Category 2

You are right, but the SHIPS model goes to 120 hours. That is when it says 110 mph, but whats beyond that could be more...
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
So if I is the worst letter, then what is the best? B storms maybe?

Betsy? Beulah? Bob?

In the North Atlantic, 'V' storms haven't yet hurt anyone. ;-)
Bouy near 93L 12N 23W


1549. P451
AL, 93, 2011081112, , BEST, 0, 103N, 215W






(image is 1130z)


Not too good either...
Quoting Neapolitan:

Betsy? Beulah? Bob?

In the North Atlantic, 'V' storms haven't yet hurt anyone. ;-)

I mean for regularly used names like A-L.
1551. ncstorm


Hey Aussie & Zoo, good to see y'all...And you too CT

Michael is doing well; being a bit of the pain in the arse on days he wakes up on the wrong side of the bed. Seeing as how he's 2.5 and thinking he can get away with testing me ;-)

nrti, great to see you around as well ;)
Quoting P451:
AL, 93, 2011081112, , BEST, 0, 103N, 215W






(image is 1130z)


Not too good either...

What did you expect from this right now, a major hurricane?
Quoting StormJunkie:
Hey Aussie & Zoo, good to see y'all...And you too CT

Michael is doing well; being a bit of the pain in the arse on days he wakes up on the wrong side of the bed. Seeing as how he's 2.5 and thinking he can get away with testing me ;-)

nrti, great to see you around as well ;)


Hi SJ, still studying?
Quoting ncstorm:


That's what I mean look at the GFS ensemble for 93L see how the recurve happens farther west.
1556. P451
30 hours Ending 1245z



Quoting Neapolitan:

Betsy? Beulah? Bob?

In the North Atlantic, 'V' storms haven't yet hurt anyone. ;-)


Bonnie was perhaps the most harmless out of all the B names.
92L and93L are only areas of disturbed weather, with 93L the stroger of the two disturbances.the two areas will continue to move west with the east to west wind flow, for a few days. T he Global models take both systems to the north of the lesser antilles, and out in the open atlantic.( the word recurve i cannot fathom . For something to recurve it has to be on a course and changes direction) what i have noticed in the past the GFS has geat difficulty in initialising weak systems and always have a bias for taking them further north and out to sea. Hurricane DEAN of 2007 is a typical example of the GFS taking the storm out to sea on several runs, only to see the hurricane pass through the St Lucia/Martinigue channel. We all know that the GFS has not perform too well this year, and we should wait until there are are closed circulations for that model to perform. AT the moment the two systems are very far from any land mass, and it will be a few days before one will be able to say with any degree of certainty if any land mass will be impacted.
From The Northeast Quadrant
This is the current upper air pattern, which is somewhat similar to last year, though the negative NAO that kept the storms from reaching the U.S. in 2010 is not as strong in 2011. Still, with this pattern and with storms potentially forming so far east like they did last year, odds are that most, but not all, will still recurve. You will identify that trend as the models start hooking right once 92L and 93L have defined low level centers.
1561. P451
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's what I mean look at the GFS ensemble for 93L see how the recurve happens farther west.


Yeah they are quite far west. To see these westward adjustments in subsequent model runs isn't much of a surprise. It's fairly normal for early runs to have a northerly bias. Also keep in mind they still are not initializing a developed system. They will continue to change.

1562. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest92
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




FISH STORM!!!
Hmm. 92L and 93L are pretty near each other, and take a similar track. Fujuarta effect?
1565. ncstorm
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's what I mean look at the GFS ensemble for 93L see how the recurve happens farther west.


Yes..thats what I pay attention too as well is the the GFS Ensemble members..
1566. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




1567. P451
Quoting tropicfreak:


Only exception to that rule was Ida, she formed in November. She wasn't so bad at landfall, but boy when she became extratropical, she was pretty bad up and down the east coast.


That was one fun system to track. I put a blog together on her tracking her daily - in fact it had to end up two blogs because of the duration of the event.


Ida - Entry 1

Ida - Entry 2

I started tracking the event in October.

All the imagery and loops are still active in those two entries which is nice.

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Hmm. 92L and 93L are pretty near each other, and take a similar track. Fujuarta effect?


Fujiwhara effect
1569. Grothar
Quoting stoormfury:
92L and93L are only areas of disturbed weather, with 93L the stroger of the two disturbances.the two areas will continue to move west with the east to west wind flow, for a few days. T he Global models take both systems to the north of the lesser antilles, and out in the open atlantic.( the word recurve i cannot fathom . For something to recurve it has to be on a course and changes direction) what i have noticed in the past the GFS has geat difficulty in initialising weak systems and always have a bias for taking them further north and out to sea. Hurricane DEAN of 2007 is a typical example of the GFS taking the storm out to sea on several runs, only to see the hurricane pass through the St Lucia/Martinigue channel. We all know that the GFS has not perform too well this year, and we should wait until there are are closed circulations for that model to perform. AT the moment the two systems are very far from any land mass, and it will be a few days before one will be able to say with any degree of certainty if any land mass will be impacted.


Recurve is a proper word to use here. You used it correctly. Just one of those words that make us think.
1570. Gearsts
92l is getting shear pretty bad
1571. ncstorm


looking much better the models and forcasters are sayin to keep 92 and 93 out to sea going around the huge high and 2 fronts pushing off the east coast later next week will also help keep them away from the east coast
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Fujiwhara effect

I know what it means.
Quoting HOTWHEELS99:
looking much better the models and forcasters are sayin to keep 92 and 93 out to sea going around the huge high and 2 fronts pushing off the east coast later next week will also help keep them away from the east coast


The track will change a million times before it turns north, if it does turn north.
She's back ....

Emily has decided to go another round?

That is what's left of her, correct?



There have been no earthquakes, world wide, above a 7 magnitude in over a month and nothing above a 6 for a week now. Unusual given recent activity.
1577. Matt74
Quoting RitaEvac:
Being in a drought and never seeing rain or thunderstorms this past year, I'm totally unprepared for a storm barreling towards TX right now.
With the ridge over us we won't have to worry about one.
1578. P451
SAL...

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

I know what it means.


Just helping with the spelling..
Quoting Matt74:
With the ridge over us we won't have to worry about one.


I expect it to crack by next month
Hard thing to remember, but what is your opinion on the best looking invest this season that never became a TS?
Right..I see very little difference from last year..it's either Mexico or out to sea

Quoting AussieStorm:
From The Northeast Quadrant
This is the current upper air pattern, which is somewhat similar to last year, though the negative NAO that kept the storms from reaching the U.S. in 2010 is not as strong in 2011. Still, with this pattern and with storms potentially forming so far east like they did last year, odds are that most, but not all, will still recurve. You will identify that trend as the models start hooking right once 92L and 93L have defined low level centers.
1583. cmahan
Quoting RitaEvac:


Never has had tourism, Galveston really doesnt have anything to offer.


Uhm... bullcr*p. I grew up in Houston and was just down there a couple weekends ago. Happy to leave some of my dollars behind on the Island and had a great time doing it.
The TX ridge has been around since March, it's doomed to fail at some point
Quoting portcharlotte:
Right..I see very little difference from last year..it's either Mexico or out to sea




Yeah but that pattern won't certainly last long. Come on now, you're going to say the same thing next year. We are still relatively early in the season, so anything can happen.
Quoting cmahan:


Uhm... bullcr*p. I grew up in Houston and was just down there a couple weekends ago. Happy to leave some of my dollars behind on the Island and had a great time doing it.


Uhm, you're a local too, not from another state
1587. Matt74
Quoting RitaEvac:


I expect it to crack by next month
Let's hope so. I would take a storm right now if that is gonna be the only way to get any beneficial rain. I'm sure alot of people around here would agree.
1588. divdog
Quoting RitaEvac:
The TX ridge has been around since March, it's doomed to fail at some point
maybe in november
True..it can change ...I have noticed though that sometimes when when get a very strong tropical system recurve it starts a pattern. It seems to leaves a subtle weakness in the ridge or the region and all other follow to some degree. We'll see


Quoting tropicfreak:



Yeah but that pattern won't certainly last long. Come on now, you're going to say the same thing next year. We are still relatively early in the season, so anything can happen.
Quoting StormJunkie:
Hey Aussie & Zoo, good to see y'all...And you too CT

Michael is doing well; being a bit of the pain in the arse on days he wakes up on the wrong side of the bed. Seeing as how he's 2.5 and thinking he can get away with testing me ;-)

nrti, great to see you around as well ;)
Well, greetings earthling.
On Xmas day..a "Blue Norther" will destroy the high!


Quoting RitaEvac:
The TX ridge has been around since March, it's doomed to fail at some point
Also my hope is by October we have some fronts come down and stall over the state and have deep tropical moisture coming in from the BOC and get widespread heavy training rains. I bet that's what will happen too.
Quoting portcharlotte:
Right..I see very little difference from last year..it's either Mexico or out to sea





++ 1000
Quoting portcharlotte:
On Xmas day..a "Blue Norther" will destroy the high!




With another high that will put us in the Deep Freeze
1595. P451
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
She's back ....

Emily has decided to go another round?

That is what's left of her, correct?





Looks like the energy got split. A model run days ago had this happening but much further west than it occurred and a new tight system forming and rolling WSW towards the SE US Coastline.

I wouldn't put much into it honestly. It would just circle right back up on out of here if anything came of it.

66 hours, Emily:





1596. SQUAWK
Quoting JasonIsCoolman:
FISH STORM!!!


Isn't it a little early to be calling that?
Morning StormJunkie! Glad to see you.
1598. ackee
I think 93L percent could be up to 30% by 2pm
Fron the death ridge to the Artic freeze ridge..
I think Noaa should attack the "Death Ridge" with some kind of atmospheric weapon of some sort..


Quoting RitaEvac:


With another high that will put us in the Deep Freeze
Quoting portcharlotte:
Right..I see very little difference from last year..it's either Mexico or out to sea



I agree, that is the dominant pattern in place. Although obviously storms could still go elsewhere, those seem like the main paths again.
1601. P451
Quoting SuperYooper:
There have been no earthquakes, world wide, above a 7 magnitude in over a month and nothing above a 6 for a week now. Unusual given recent activity.


Are we DOOM?

If so, where?

West coast US? New Madrid?

We're the ones that haven't popped in a long time.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Presslord,
Yep, have visited Galveston in the moddle of July every year since 2003, and its amazing how much they've built back, though tourism has sadly plumeted and may not return to where it was for years...


I am a resident of Galveston and I beg to disagree. The middle of July happens to be the slowest time - we get such crowds for the 4th and there is a slump right afterwards. If you look at hotel occupancy and beach counts, we are back where we were before Ike, and higher on the holidays.

That said, if you drive off the main drag, you will still see many blue roofs (most now shredded) and derelict buildings. Whereas tourism has recovered, the population has not and the economy is keeping things down. It is a great time to buy property on the island.
Well I will try this a 3rd time.I think a troll must be deleting all my osts.Ten posts and no reply?Hey i cant be that unpopular lol.Here we go.Good morning Ike and Aquak.Press lord isnt it amazing that
Quoting SQUAWK:


Isn't it a little early to be calling that?

I wished he'd give it a break, the system hasn't even formed yet and he's calling fish. It's only an INVEST.
1605. ackee
92L really not looking Good just seem like its puropse was get rid of the dry air for 93L
1606. beell
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
She's back ....

Emily has decided to go another round?

That is what's left of her, correct?





I would say no. There is a long-advertised shortwave along 50-51W breaking a somewhat weak A/B ridge in half. The models respond by bringing 92L towards this weakness. Some runs have even hinted at a weak trough split here and a subsequent area of vorticity ahead of 92L drifting to the SW into the Caribbean. That part seems pretty iffy.

700mb @ 18Z
click to enlarge


1607. P451
Quoting ackee:
I think 93L percent could be up to 30% by 2pm


Chances seem good for raising it's percentage although they are using the "slow to occur" terminology on it. Organization is poor at the moment given the center fix and the general appearance on the latest scat pass.

Not a fan of these percentages because of this. Using low-medium-high was just fine. There was no reason for more detail.

As it is saying 93L has a low chance to develop _within 48 hours_ isn't very helpful either.

I can't think of any reason why it won't continue to develop and become a named storm in the coming days.

I think it has a very good chance at becoming a TD within 48 hours.

The rating system just isn't helpful especially for systems located so far away. It serves more of a purpose close to home.

Even then didn't Arlene go from 40% to a named system fairly rapidly?



1608. P451
Quoting ackee:
92L really not looking Good just seem like its puropse was get rid of the dry air for 93L


Yeah the new surge of SAL isn't helping either pushing in from behind.

If 92L does develop it clearly won't be for days.

93L on the other hand...
1609. Hugo7
Quoting P451:


Looks like the energy got split. A model run days ago had this happening but much further west than it occurred and a new tight system forming and rolling WSW towards the SE US Coastline.

I wouldn't put much into it honestly. It would just circle right back up on out of here if anything came of it.

66 hours, Emily:






Still looks to me like Emily is trying to come back around again.
Quoting P451:


Yeah the new surge of SAL isn't helping either pushing in from behind.

If 92L does develop it clearly won't be for days.

93L on the other hand...


You sound a lot like pottery lol.
1611. P451
Quoting tropicfreak:


You sound a lot like pottery lol.


Ut oh.

Is this a good thing? A bad thing?


Quoting SuperYooper:
There have been no earthquakes, world wide, above a 7 magnitude in over a month and nothing above a 6 for a week now. Unusual given recent activity.

Unusual, but not unheard of, I guess. Since the monster earthquake in Japan, there have been 70 6.0 or larger quakes on the planet: 21 in March, 14 in April, 5 in May, 10 in June, 19 in July, and--so far--just one in August. It's definitely a bit of a drought. But there were two on May 15, then none until June 1, so we've another week to go before equaling that seismic lull...
Quoting P451:


Looks like the energy got split. A model run days ago had this happening but much further west than it occurred and a new tight system forming and rolling WSW towards the SE US Coastline.

I wouldn't put much into it honestly. It would just circle right back up on out of here if anything came of it.

66 hours, Emily:






Quoting beell:


I would say no. There is a long-advertised shortwave along 50-51W breaking a somewhat weak A/B ridge in half. The models respond by bringing 92L towards this weakness. Some runs have even hinted at a weak trough split here and a subsequent area of vorticity ahead of 92L drifting to the SW into the Caribbean. That part seems pretty iffy.

700mb @ 18Z
click to enlarge




It does appear that her energy got split, looking at the imagery posted above.

That's at least half of her moisture circling around the big High, and some of her vorticity.

It's interesting, anytime one tries to do this, even if it's just part of the energy. The left over moisture is significant, at the least.
The records continue to fall and the situation across the state is becoming increasingly desperate for rainfall. Some of the record are just amazing on the drought and shows how bad things have become!


Locally the strong heat ridge remains in place with yesterday being the tenth straight day at or above 100…we will do it again today and likely again Friday. The streak to break the 1980 record is 14 and to tie it would be on Sunday. It would appear that the ridge may weaken just enough over the weekend to drop 1-3 degrees off the high temperature which would support 98-101 across the region, so it is in question if the current 100 degree streak will be broken or tied.

Heat:

Below is some comparison data to the summer of 1980 (hottest summer ever for TX) and 2011 for the number of days at or above 100:



College Station: 43 (1980), 38 (2011)

Huntsville: 43 (1980), 45 (2011)

Conroe: 22 (1980), 27 (2011)

BUSH IAH: 32 (1980), 21 (2011)

Hobby: 8 (1980), 6 (2011)

Dallas: 69 (1980), 47 (2011)

Waco: 63 (1980), 59 (2011)

Austin Mabry: 32 (1980), 57 (2011), record year is 69 in 1925

Del Rio: 56 (1980), 63 (2011), record year is 78 in 1953

San Antonio: 31 (1980), 33 (2011), record year is 59 in 2009


Number of consecutive days at or above 100 degrees:

Dallas: 42 (1980), 40 (2011)

Waco: 42 (1980), 42 (2011) *Today will break this record*

BUSH IAH: 14 (1980), 10 (2011)


So far for August of 2011, most of the climate sites in SE TX are on their way to breaking their hottest monthly temperature FOR ANY MONTH by 2-3 degrees!


Drought:

Things are bad and getting worse by the day with respect to water supply, vegetation, and agricultural impacts. The impacts to agriculture and livestock are approaching severe levels with cattle running out of drinking water from drying creeks and ponds. Vegetation has stopped growing and died in many ranch areas with feed being trucked into from the central plains for cattle. We are really getting into a bad situation quickly and we desperately need widespread rainfall. The majority of irrigation currently is just to keep vegetation alive at this point and with increasing water conservation measures likely vegetation already stressed is going to suffer even more.



Houston has now gone 198 days between 1.0 inch rainfall events breaking the previous record of 192 days from 1917-1918



Only 6.36 inches of rain has fallen in the last 191 days for the City of Houston (IAH) making this by far the driest Feb-Aug 10 period ever. This breaks the previous record by an astounding 6.25 inches of rainfall…that is an amazing record!!! At Hobby Airport for the same time period the record is being broken by 5.17 inches!



The period from August 2010 to August 2011 is now the driest 1-year period ever for the City of Houston.



Water Supply:

For the first time since the drought of 1988 the City of Houston is going to be requesting emergency releases from Lake Conroe to help stabilize the rapid fall that is occurring on Lake Houston (the primary water supply for the City of Houston). This is only the third time ever this action has been required. Water intake pipes on Lake Houston are getting dangerously low to becoming exposed and causing damage to the water supply system. With this action likely next week, the City of Houston will move to Stage 2 water conservation (mandatory water restrictions). This is going to have a significant impact on the lake levels at Conroe as releases begin, and the lake will begin to fall due to the releases that are going to be required to help stop the rapid decline on Lake Houston.



Lake Somerville and Lake Texana are now close to 50% of their capacity and falling. Lake Somerville has lost an astounding 11% of its capacity in the last 3 weeks!



Outlook:

I have really no good news, as any rains over the next 48 hours will likely be focused west of SE TX. 14 day outlook continues to feature below normal rainfall unless something can develop and threaten from the tropics.



NOAA issued a La Nina Watch this week suggesting that the return of cooling in the central Pacific may once again result in La Nina conditions this fall-winter-spring….if this happens rainfall will average below normal through much of this winter and this drought will only worsen if we do not get some kind of tropical system in the next 2 months.

Quoting P451:


Are we DOOM?

If so, where?

West coast US? New Madrid?

We're the ones that haven't popped in a long time.


True. AK had a 6-7 mag 2 months ago and that is where I would place money for one again. Higher? Yeah we are due but so are a lot of other places. I would place higher bets on something in Europe...Iceland or the Med before us. Not a lot of money though. Gotta be a volcano ready to go in the Med somewhere which is usually proceeded by a quake of some sort.

Yeah, we are probably DOOM.
1616. P451
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:



It does appear that her energy got split, looking at the imagery posted above.

That's at least half of her moisture circling around the big High, and some of her vorticity.

It's interesting, anytime one tries to do this, even if it's just part of the energy. The left over moisture is significant, at the least.


I know there's been a few here and there in the past few years that tried but it always seemed like just as they started turning back westward after the southward trek and were in what you would expect to be a favorable area they just finish dying out.

Quoting Neapolitan:

Unusual, but not unheard of, I guess. Since the monster earthquake in Japan, there have been 70 6.0 or larger quakes on the planet: 21 in March, 14 in April, 5 in May, 10 in June, 19 in July, and--so far--just one in August. It's definitely a bit of a drought. But there were two on May 15, then none until June 1, so we've another week to go before equaling that seismic lull...


I saw that gap there also. Two weeks, from what I gathered, is the usual gap. All the while, pressure builds...........oooohhhhhhh..........
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Well I will try this a 3rd time.I think a troll must be deleting all my osts.Ten posts and no reply?Hey i cant be that unpopular lol.Here we go.Good morning Ike and Aquak.Press lord isnt it amazing that

Good Morning Saint :-)
Quoting Neapolitan:

Unusual, but not unheard of, I guess. Since the monster earthquake in Japan, there have been 70 6.0 or larger quakes on the planet: 21 in March, 14 in April, 5 in May, 10 in June, 19 in July, and--so far--just one in August. It's definitely a bit of a drought. But there were two on May 15, then none until June 1, so we've another week to go before equaling that seismic lull...

Most of those 6.0+ quakes were off the coast of Japan.
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Well I will try this a 3rd time.I think a troll must be deleting all my osts.Ten posts and no reply?Hey i cant be that unpopular lol.Here we go.Good morning Ike and Aquak.Press lord isnt it amazing that


LOL, he only got half your post this time. ;^)
Good morning Saint..
1622. angiest
Quoting AussieStorm:

Most of those 6.0+ quakes were off the coast of Japan.


Yes, they continue to get moderately large aftershocks.
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Well I will try this a 3rd time.I think a troll must be deleting all my osts.Ten posts and no reply?Hey i cant be that unpopular lol.Here we go.Good morning Ike and Aquak.Press lord isnt it amazing that


Good mornin'!
WOW!! HIGH!
OLD BLOG
Quoting P451:


Yeah the new surge of SAL isn't helping either pushing in from behind.

If 92L does develop it clearly won't be for days.

93L on the other hand...

93L will have to contend with SAL as well, maybe even more than 92L. Look at the flow off the coast of West Africa, west south west. 93L could very well ingest quit a bit of dry air in the coming days. It would not all surprise me if it took 4-5 days out from now for these waves to really get going.
1628. wund
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