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Two African waves, 92L and 93L, worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:59 PM GMT on August 11, 2011

An African wave is near 13°N 35°W, about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This system, (Invest 92L), is moving west to west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before arriving near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands early next week. Recent visible satellite loops show that 92L has less heavy thunderstorm activity near where it is trying to develop its circulation center than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops that a large area of dry air lies just to the west of 92L, but the atmosphere in the immediate vicinity of 92L is moist. Even so, the decline of heavy thunderstorm activity since yesterday implies that dry air is probably working its way into 92L. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 26.5° - 27°C, which is very close to the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite photo of Invest 92L and Invest 93L.

Forecast for 92L
Low to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming three days, which should allow the storm to organize, assuming it can shut out any incursions of dry air that might intrude. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west to west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which would put the storm in the vicinity of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Sunday. On Saturday and Sunday, 92L is expected to enter a region where an upper-level low pressure system will bring high wind shear of 20 knots to the storm, which should slow development. This upper-level low is also expected to turn 92L more to the northwest, so the storm is likely to pass north of the Lesser Antilles, though may pass close enough to give heavy rains to the northernmost islands. It is too early to know if 92L will recurve out to sea and potentially threaten Bermuda, or continue to the northwest towards the U.S. East Coast.

93L
An African wave that emerged off the coast of Africa is near 10°N 22°W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This system, (Invest 93L), is also moving west at 10 - 15 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before arriving near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands near the middle of next week. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has a decent amount of heavy thunderstorms, but this activity is not well organized. There is not much spin associated with 93L yet. 93L is fairly well-protected from dry air to its north and west. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 93L. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.

Forecast for 93L
Moderate wind shear below 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to steadily organize. 93L is about 600 miles east of 92L, which is close enough that the two systems may interfere with each others' organization. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. Due to moister air, the potential for less wind shear, and a more southerly track, 93L is probably a greater threat to the Lesser Antilles than 92L.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. ackee
I think EURO models SEEM to be best models in figure out 93L unltimate track the EURO has been hinting all along that system would be weak unlike the GFS track further west and south seem possblie I 92L will stall 93L devlopment as well
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Why ? The only images I can find were from 0600 UTC which is over 4 hours old.



the most up too date





92 and 93L
Quoting Tazmanian:



the most up too date





92 and 93L
I know Taz but I wondered why he said 93L is falling apart when the most up to date image is from 4 or 5 hours ago. Need to see what the morning brings.
And a new one, 94L:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108121132
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2011, DB, O, 2011081212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942011
AL, 94, 2011081212, , BEST, 0, 249N, 545W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
1506. ncstorm
Accuweather..

We are not saying the models have a 100 percent right idea on the storms and their supposed tracks, but we are relaying concerns we have in this matter.

On a personal note, I am not a fan of long-range computer model forecasts in the tropics. However, my 28 years of professional forecasting experience tell me that when two commonly used models are essentially predicting the same outcome with minor variances, the situation is worth watching.

If either of the two or both tropical waves slowly organize and become legitimate named tropical systems, they could become strong enough and large enough to have impact on populated areas.

Size, intensity and exact track of the systems will matter as far as local impacts. Even a weak system could bring a period of disruptive, heavy, gusty squalls to island areas such as the Leewards and Virgin Islands.

Both systems will pass nearby the Leeward Islands first. The first system is on track to approach and pass the Leewards spanning Sunday into Monday (Aug. 14 and 15). The second system is due to pass days later; Thursday into Friday of next week (Aug. 18 and 19).

Bermuda may have to deal with the first system spanning Tuesday into Wednesday. The second system would pass near Bermuda the weekend of Aug. 20 and 21.

Part of Atlantic Canada sticks out to the east hundreds of miles relative to the U.S. coast. As a result, at this early stage, people and interests from New Brunswick to Nova Scotia will need to monitor storm development in the tropical Atlantic. The first system would make its run at the region Thursday into Friday of next week (Aug. 18 and 19). The second system would be of concern for the region the week of Aug. 22.

Additionally, shipping and cruising interests will want to watch the situation closely, as the outcome currently most certain is for at least periods of rough seas in the western Atlantic.

Even if both storms were to stay east of the U.S., one or more episodes of rough surf and dangerous rip currents could occur.

Interestingly, it would not take much for an approaching dip in the jet stream to capture one or both systems in such a way as to pull them closer to the East Coast of the U.S.



Quoting Neapolitan:
And a new one, 94L:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108121132
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2011, DB, O, 2011081212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942011
AL, 94, 2011081212, , BEST, 0, 249N, 545W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,



i wounder where 94L is


Hey everyone-

I think it's worth noting the 4th area of storms circled by the NHC. This is moving west/southwestward and the NAM has something forming in 84 hours pretty close to home. NAM has done an excellent job this year finding these smaller systems that the GFS and EURO have problems finding.
Quoting weatherman566:


Hey everyone-

I think it's worth noting the 4th area of storms circled by the NHC. This is moving west/southwestward and the NAM has something forming in 84 hours pretty close to home. NAM has done an excellent job this year finding these smaller systems that the GFS and EURO have problems finding.
Puts it just north of Haiti again.
1510. ncstorm
Quoting Neapolitan:
And a new one, 94L:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108121132
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2011, DB, O, 2011081212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942011
AL, 94, 2011081212, , BEST, 0, 249N, 545W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Emily?
Quoting Tazmanian:



i wounder where 94L is

24.9N/54.5W. IOW, the 10% (yellow) AOI. (As ncstorm says, what was left of Emily, but given a new ID.)
Quoting Tazmanian:



i wounder where 94L is
24.9N 54.5W
Quoting weatherman566:


Hey everyone-

I think it's worth noting the 4th area of storms circled by the NHC. This is moving west/southwestward and the NAM has something forming in 84 hours pretty close to home. NAM has done an excellent job this year finding these smaller systems that the GFS and EURO have problems finding.


Link?
Quoting ncstorm:


Emily?



nop
Quoting Neapolitan:

24.9N/54.5W. IOW, the 10% (yellow) AOI. (As ncstorm says, what was left of Emily, but given a new ID.)



ok
Quoting ncstorm:


Emily?
in some manner but seems to be treated as a whole new entity
1517. ncstorm
1518. ncstorm
Quoting hunkerdown:
in some manner but seems to be treated as a whole new entity


okay thanks
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Link?


Here's the link to the NAM model:

CLICK HERE
The Atlantic is a mess this morning!
1521. ackee
WOW if 94L 93L and 92L intresting I think the race is on see who will become the next name storm
94L already designated?

1523. ncstorm
Quoting angelafritz:
The Atlantic is a mess this morning!


A hot mess! LOL!
Good morning

92L seems to be heading off to the WNW and eventually the N Atl. 93L, though somewhat weaker this morning, is the threat to watch for downstream. The GFS takes it all the way to the central Caribbean just South of Haiti at a lat. of about 15N on the 19th. The last run does not show a strong system at this time but that does not mean much this far out. The ridge of high pressure is shown as stretching all the way to the SE coast of the US by next Friday with the flow continuing West through the GOM.

For now just watch to see if the Westerly track verifies to a position near 55W and 13N.

GFS next Wednesday




And the full 94L file:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108121145
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2011, DB, O, 2011081212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942011
AL, 94, 2011081106, , BEST, 0, 266N, 503W, 25, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011081112, , BEST, 0, 260N, 509W, 25, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 250, 50, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011081118, , BEST, 0, 255N, 518W, 25, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 300, 40, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011081200, , BEST, 0, 252N, 527W, 25, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 300, 50, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011081206, , BEST, 0, 250N, 536W, 25, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 300, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting Tazmanian:



i wounder where 94L is

24.9N/54.5W. IOW, the 10% (yellow) AOI. (As ncstorm says, what was left of Emily, but given a new ID.)
1527. ackee
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

92L seems to be heading off to the WNW and eventually the N Atl. 93L, though somewhat weaker this morning, is the threat to watch for downstream. The GFS takes it all the way to the central Caribbean just South of Haiti at a lat. of about 15N on the 19th. The last run does not show a strong system at this time but that does not mean much this far out. The ridge of high pressure is shown as stretching all the way to the SE coast of the US by next Friday with the flow continuing West through the GOM.

For now just watch to see if the Westerly track verifies to a position near 55W and 13N.

GFS next Wednesday




0Z6 GFS and EURO seem to be in some agreement interms of track an intensity
Quoting angelafritz:
The Atlantic is a mess this morning!


I know, what to do with 92 l and 93 l and then comes 94 l the nhc has some work to do
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

92L seems to be heading off to the WNW and eventually the N Atl. 93L, though somewhat weaker this morning, is the threat to watch for downstream. The GFS takes it all the way to the central Caribbean just South of Haiti at a lat. of about 15N on the 19th. The last run does not show a strong system at this time but that does not mean much this far out. The ridge of high pressure is shown as stretching all the way to the SE coast of the US by next Friday with the flow continuing West through the GOM.

For now just watch to see if the Westerly track verifies to a position near 55W and 13N.

GFS next Wednesday




Crownweather says some models are showing 93L(or whatever it becomes) crossing over Ja. next Friday and the Cayman Islands Fri-Sat.
finally!

00
ABNT20 KNHC 121156
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1175 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20
MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 160 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THIS DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting ackee:
0Z6 GFS and EURO seem to be in some agreement interms of track an intensity


I was just going to say that. A long way out. But I wouldn't hate this.



1532. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

92L seems to be heading off to the WNW and eventually the N Atl. 93L, though somewhat weaker this morning, is the threat to watch for downstream. The GFS takes it all the way to the central Caribbean just South of Haiti at a lat. of about 15N on the 19th. The last run does not show a strong system at this time but that does not mean much this far out. The ridge of high pressure is shown as stretching all the way to the SE coast of the US by next Friday with the flow continuing West through the GOM.

For now just watch to see if the Westerly track verifies to a position near 55W and 13N.

GFS next Wednesday





55w 13n would mean rain here.
Could use some of that, but I would rather it were just some ITCZ showers.......

Not liking that track forecast.
1533. ncstorm
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

92L seems to be heading off to the WNW and eventually the N Atl. 93L, though somewhat weaker this morning, is the threat to watch for downstream. The GFS takes it all the way to the central Caribbean just South of Haiti at a lat. of about 15N on the 19th. The last run does not show a strong system at this time but that does not mean much this far out. The ridge of high pressure is shown as stretching all the way to the SE coast of the US by next Friday with the flow continuing West through the GOM.

For now just watch to see if the Westerly track verifies to a position near 55W and 13N.

GFS next Wednesday






its one run..lets see if its consistent which unfortunately it hasnt been since this storm came off the coast..frankly, it may come down to satellite images and throw the models out when forecasting these storms as they approach land masses because they are going back and forth with different directions.
1534. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121156
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1175 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20
MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 160 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THIS DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



1535. ncstorm
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Crownweather says some models are showing 93L(or whatever it becomes) crossing over Ja. next Friday and the Cayman Islands Fri-Sat.


on one model run he is saying that?
1536. ackee
WOW can any one post NHC outlook 8am 3 meduim and one low chance of devlopment would be something if all 4 devlop in a name storm
Ummm... The Gfs can't make up it's poor little mind. 6 hour difference in the run and 2 way different solutions. 93L recurving now 93L hitting Mid Texas. GFS has major issues.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Crownweather says some models are showing 93L(or whatever it becomes) crossing over Ja. next Friday and the Cayman Islands Fri-Sat.


Long range the GFS takes it right over us and into the GOM intensifying through the Yucatan channel. Too far out to worry about for now.
30, 20, 40, 40

Just stopping in before I head to school - Now we have 94L? So...92L, 93L, 94L...Is there going to be a 95L before I get back from school, lol.

Quoting ncstorm:


on one model run he is saying that?
Excerpt from CW. Seems like each model run brings it just a little further south and west.


As for a forecast track, given its performance so far this Hurricane Season and in past seasons, I am leaning more towards the westward track of the European model guidance. I think given its current position that it will miss the trough of low pressure that will track east-northeastward off of the US East Coast during the early and middle part of next week. This means that Invest 93L should continue to track on a westward course. Yesterday afternoon’s European model forecast showed a track that took it across the northern most Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday and Thursday. The latest European model forecast shows a much further south track and forecasts Invest 93L to track across Martinique on Tuesday night and then westward from there to impact Jamaica next Friday, the Cayman Islands next Friday night into next Saturday morning and then ultimately the Yucatan Peninsula next Sunday.
I cant see most of 93L, METEOSAT sucks.
1544. pottery
Quoting pottery:

55w 13n would mean rain here.
Could use some of that, but I would rather it were just some ITCZ showers.......

Not liking that track forecast.

Actually, rethinking that.... (it's early and my brain is slow...)
55w 13n would more likely result in fine and clear weather here at 61w 11n, as the weather will tend to be lifted north of here into that system.
If it pans out.
Quoting pottery:

55w 13n would mean rain here.
Could use some of that, but I would rather it were just some ITCZ showers.......

Not liking that track forecast.


I dont like it either but there is a long way to go before it becomes a threat to anyone.
1547. ncstorm
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Excerpt from CW. Seems like each model run brings it just a little further south and west.


As for a forecast track, given its performance so far this Hurricane Season and in past seasons, I am leaning more towards the westward track of the European model guidance. I think given its current position that it will miss the trough of low pressure that will track east-northeastward off of the US East Coast during the early and middle part of next week. This means that Invest 93L should continue to track on a westward course. Yesterday afternoon’s European model forecast showed a track that took it across the northern most Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday and Thursday. The latest European model forecast shows a much further south track and forecasts Invest 93L to track across Martinique on Tuesday night and then westward from there to impact Jamaica next Friday, the Cayman Islands next Friday night into next Saturday morning and then ultimately the Yucatan Peninsula next Sunday.


the GFS OOZ had it recurving towards Bermuda, thats not south and west..006 is the only run bringing it south and west into Texas..GFDL keeps it south and west but hardly develops it and I doubt that 93L is not going to develop before reaching the islands..we shall see though..ECWMF also first run keeping it south..but these are only one model run..nothing consistent in those solutions coming from the models
Invest 92L looking pretty good right now..



Invest 94L is looking good right now too.



This will probably be Invest 95L soon, I think.



Invest 93L is looking a little disorganized, probably because its trying to lift out of the ITCZ.



See ya guys.
Quoting pottery:

Actually, rethinking that.... (it's early and my brain is slow...)
55w 13n would more likely result in fine and clear weather here at 61w 11n, as the weather will tend to be lifted north of here into that system.
If it pans out.


The GFS takes it into the Caribbean near 14N, too high to give you much in the way of rain.


TRIO OF INVESTS
Will be off for a while to update my computer.
within 48 hrs 10% 10% 70% 10% only reason my character gets it right is by luck
Quoting angelafritz:
The Atlantic is a mess this morning!



Aren't you in San Francisco? Are you up really early or up really late??

1554. ncstorm
1555. Hugo7
95 will pop up in the carr with the thunderstorm activity there. very low chance of anything happening with it though. 94 is emily, please look back at were the disturbance tracked and you will see that it is her.
Quoting angelafritz:
The Atlantic is a mess this morning!
lol Thanks Angela.

Now, any downcasters saying all of the 4 invests will not develop or some, if not all will be fish? I'm not a downcaster so i really don't doubt some, if not all will develop or not doubt that all will become fish..
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


TRIO OF INVESTS


Getting ready to be a quad of invests
are you referring to 94-L? Crown weather is saying that the system should move WSW towards Puerto Rico and the Bahamas before being turned NE by a trough of low pressure coming off the east coast

1559. ncstorm
It might just be a little something for everyone with these Invests developing..
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Not liking this at all.


Link


Good morning, not good if that pans out!
1561. ncstorm
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


the storm that wont die..
As part of an excellent update on the city’s drought, the National Weather Service dug up an incredible statistic: Since Feb. 1 Houston has recorded just 5.81 inches of rain. The next driest comparable period – that is, the 191 days from Feb. 1 through August 10 – occurred in 1917 when there were 10.98 inches of rain.

Here’s another way of looking at it: The city has now gone 198 days without a 1-inch rain event. The last day Houston recorded 1 inch of rain came on Jan. 24. This has broken the record of 192 days set during the fall and winter of 1917-1918.

In other words, this dry spell is simply off the charts and it’s going to have myriad consequences for the area, from our trees and wild creatures to home foundations, not to mention the agricultural effects on a larger scale.

Link
Seems NOGAPS with the weaker west crowd too. Link
1564. ncstorm
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


TRIO OF INVESTS


anyone want to play connect four?
Quoting stormpetrol:


Good morning, not good if that pans out!
Good morning. No, it's not but still is a big IF.
i try not to spam but notice some have their ways of doing it anyway
1567. Hugo7
should take note and watch the low that is about to come off the east coast from us for developement too.
waiting for a 94L floater......
Quoting ncstorm:


the storm that wont die..


Really...Reminds me of Fred-Ex and Karen. The NHC forecast % map looks scarier than the actual satellite presentation.
Lol...

1571. ncstorm
We had TOMAS last year and now possibly Franklyn soon. St Lucia still recovering with structyral damages from the storm. another hit could compound things
Now, that's an Atlantic parade...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Lol...



That one drives like my wife
1575. ncstorm
IF 94L develops, you might be looking at another variable in tracking for the other storms..and if none of the models except the NOGAPS is picking up on these smaller disturbances, how can they see the entire atlantic and its possibilities?
Quoting uptxcoast:
As part of an excellent update on the city’s drought, the National Weather Service dug up an incredible statistic: Since Feb. 1 Houston has recorded just 5.81 inches of rain. The next driest comparable period – that is, the 191 days from Feb. 1 through August 10 – occurred in 1917 when there were 10.98 inches of rain.

Here’s another way of looking at it: The city has now gone 198 days without a 1-inch rain event. The last day Houston recorded 1 inch of rain came on Jan. 24. This has broken the record of 192 days set during the fall and winter of 1917-1918.

In other words, this dry spell is simply off the charts and it’s going to have myriad consequences for the area, from our trees and wild creatures to home foundations, not to mention the agricultural effects on a larger scale.

Link


Yup, and y'all have gotten a ton more rain than we have here in San Antonio. We're 18 inches below normal for the year.

A slow, wet tropical storm would be a good start to refilling the reservoirs, but torrential rains would mostly be lost to run-off. It'll take 2 weeks straight of light-moderate rain to get us back to where we should be. *kicks the drought*
Hey, look, honey! It's quadruplets!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108121210
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2011, DB, O, 2011081212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952011
AL, 95, 2011081212, , BEST, 0, 348N, 668W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
wow who gave Miss Tropical Atlantic some heavey rum to go crazy
Quoting ncstorm:


anyone want to play connect four?

Bingo...
Quoting ncstorm:


anyone want to play connect four?


funny!
1582. MahFL
Quoting ncstorm:


throw the models out ...


Don't be stupid, when the storms, if they develop, are near land the NHC will have a very good idea where they are going.
1583. ncstorm
Quoting Neapolitan:
Hey, look, honey! It's quadruplets!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108121210
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2011, DB, O, 2011081212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952011
AL, 95, 2011081212, , BEST, 0, 348N, 668W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


LOL..OMGosh!!
ACTIVE STORMS
92L
93L
94L
95L
1585. ncstorm
Quoting MahFL:


Don't be stupid, when the storms, if they develop, are near land the NHC will have a very good idea where they are going.


I didnt say the NHC wouldnt have an idea, I said the models..big difference..the models do not have the best track record right now this season
4 invests in the Atl this morning tells me we're approaching mid August!
Plenty of bark but not much bite.
1588. MahFL
Quoting uptxcoast:
... it’s going to have myriad consequences for the area...



Nature will recover.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ACTIVE STORMS
92L
93L
94L
95L


95L?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


95L?

See post 1577
Quoting stormpetrol:
4 invests in the Atl this morning tells me we're approaching mid August!


shocking... ain't it?
All these invests at once, too much to watch!!!
invest 94l already gave us some thunderstorms this morning causing pop up showers here
...And, finally, the complete file on 95L:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108121229
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2011, DB, O, 2011081212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952011
AL, 95, 2011081112, , BEST, 0, 304N, 740W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 60, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2011081118, , BEST, 0, 314N, 724W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 60, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2011081200, , BEST, 0, 325N, 706W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 40, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2011081206, , BEST, 0, 336N, 688W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 40, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2011081212, , BEST, 0, 348N, 668W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
1595. FLdewey
My in depth dual doppler 9000 real time storm track action tropical anaysis is:

Meh.
Quoting MahFL:



Nature will recover.


In the meantime, it's having a billion-plus dollar impact on the Texas economy.
I wonder if 94L might affect 92L, and could that hurt/help 93L. They are all relatively close, and it appear 94L and 92L are on a collision course. 95L I think will probably develop just like Cindy.
1598. ncstorm
I know Dr. Masters is having to rewrite his update each time these Invests have popped up..
Morning All.

Looks to be a busy weekend & week ahead with 92, 93, 94L so far and, potentially 95L. Tis the season. A couple more big dogs coming down the pipe over Africa as well.

I am interested to see if 93L takes a path similar to Emily in 05. That was the only Cape Verde storm to effect land. After Emily, most storms were home brew types that formed west of 60W. The ones that did form in the MDR all re-curved. Trending back to a La Nina, I personally don't think things are much different than 05, with the exception of the low shear anomalies.

95L Radar:
1601. HCW
92L 93L 94L and 95L








Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Looks to be a busy weekend & week ahead with 92, 93, 94L so far and, potentially 95L. Tis the season.

You can safely remove the qualifier... ;-)
Last few frames on 92L's floater, I am definetly noticing some cyclonic turning of the system for the first time..



..??? a Frog storm???
Quoting BobinTampa:



Aren't you in San Francisco? Are you up really early or up really late??



Really early. Someone has to monitor the tropics!
1607. ncstorm
a different way of seeing the invest??

1608. ncstorm
Quoting ncstorm:
a different way of seeing the invest??


Probably becaus the BAMD forecasts a coordinate that is in the eastern hemisphere
Atlantic is active this morning but the good news is none of these systems pose a threat to land areas.
this looks bad

from crownweather

"What does this all mean? Well, I think Invest 93L poses a very real threat as a tropical storm or even a hurricane to the Lesser Antilles for Tuesday and then may become a real threat as a possible hurricane to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula from Wednesday to Sunday of next week."
Good Morning. Nothing fully cooking yet but I don't ever remember a time seeing 4 circles at the same time since NHC switched to this system. Does not look like any threat to land at the moment with the exception of 93L possibly going into the Caribbean per the latest model runs this am.
Quoting hurricane23:
Atlantic is active this morning but the good news is none of these systems pose a threat to land areas.


Not YET!!!
Quoting hurricane23:
Atlantic is active this morning but the good news is none of these systems pose a threat to land areas.


Do you mean immediately? Or ever?
Wow,
these systems are getting going,
92L: 40% up again; Slow organizer
93L: 40% same; Slow organizer
94L: 20% Up; Possible slow development
95L: 30% Up; development possible, impressive little system.... say 50 to 70% at next TWO or special advisory.

Its pretty weird when NHC has to use all the floaters from GOES to track the systems in the ATL.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
this looks bad

from crownweather

"What does this all mean? Well, I think Invest 93L poses a very real threat as a tropical storm or even a hurricane to the Lesser Antilles for Tuesday and then may become a real threat as a possible hurricane to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula from Wednesday to Sunday of next week."


Kinda of early to make this call... 11 days is an eternity for modeling synoptic scales, let alone TCs. Odds of verifying = low
what's the over/under on what time somebody says 'Fujiwhara'? (besides this post obviously).

Anyone have a link to GFDL n HWRF model run site...the one I have cant be displayed for some reason this morning...Thanks!!
1619. barbamz
Quoting ncstorm:
a different way of seeing the invest??



Wow, Invest 95 is heading directly to my place in Germany. Should I buy some plywood???
Good morning, btw.
Quoting hurricane23:


Kinda of early to make this call... 11 days is an eternity for modeling synoptic scales, let alone TCs. Odds of verifying = low


Geez, what a downcaster u are.
Fujiwhara
1622. ncstorm
Quoting barbamz:


Wow, Invest 95 is heading directly to my place in Germany. Should I buy some plywood???
Good morning, btw.

If there is a Home Depot in Germany, it stands to make a killing..LOL!
1623. SLU
A few polls:
Which one might become Franklin?
A.92L
B.93L
C.94L
D.95L

Which one might become Gert?
A.92L
B.93L
C.94L
D.95L

Which might become Harvey?
A.92L
B.93L
C.94L
D.95L

What about Irene maybe?
A.92L
B.93L
C.94L
D.95L

92L
A.TD-TS
B.Stronger
93L
A.TD-TS
B.Stronger
94L
A.TD-TS
B.Stronger

95L
A.TD-TS
B.Stronger
Quoting hurricane23:
Atlantic is active this morning but the good news is none of these systems pose a threat to land areas.


Wish I could honestly believe that, and you know what, deep down you know better! Ever heard of cutting off your nose to spite your face " think about it man"
Can I get $100 on 2 minutes?


Quoting BobinTampa:
what's the over/under on what time somebody says 'Fujiwhara'? (besides this post obviously).


1626. FLdewey
Quoting BobinTampa:
what's the over/under on what time somebody says 'Fujiwhara'? (besides this post obviously).



What's the time period? Daily, weekly, etc.
These appear to be the final 12Z coordinates

AL 92 2011081212 BEST 0 178N 453W 25 1011 LO

AL 93 2011081212 BEST 0 113N 303W 25 1011 LO

AL 94 2011081212 BEST 0 247N 547W 25 1013 DB

AL 95 2011081212 BEST 0 348N 668W 25 1011 DB
All the BORICUAS should watch carefully the evolution of 93L.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Wish I could honestly believe that, and you know what, deep down you know better! Ever heard of cutting off your nose to spite your face " think about it man"


??

Do any of these systems pose an immediate threat to any landmass at the current time?
H23 I agree that 11 days out to make a call at the caymans jamiaca or eventually the yucatan is pretty far fetched. Especially how the models have handled things so far this year. But your statement saying none of these pose a threat is absurd. I saw a GFS run that shows some mischief in the GOM in 13 days.
I won't completely rule it out but, will rather watch wait and be informed and try to give and get good responsible info.
1631. SLU

Updated
099

WHXX01 KWBC 121230

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1230 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 34.8N 66.8W 35.8N 64.0W 36.7N 61.9W 37.5N 60.2W

BAMD 34.8N 66.8W 37.1N 62.5W 39.7N 57.8W 42.2N 51.0W

BAMM 34.8N 66.8W 36.6N 63.3W 38.4N 60.0W 40.0N 56.1W

LBAR 34.8N 66.8W 37.1N 63.0W 40.4N 58.8W 43.8N 53.2W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 38.4N 58.6W 39.7N 54.0W 40.7N 49.8W 42.6N 45.3W

BAMD 43.4N 42.5W 44.5N 25.9W 46.7N 8.0W 48.6N 8.5E

BAMM 41.1N 51.8W 42.1N 43.7W 40.9N 38.3W 39.3N 37.2W

LBAR 46.2N 45.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 44KTS 34KTS 21KTS 0KTS

DSHP 44KTS 34KTS 21KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 34.8N LONCUR = 66.8W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 32.5N LONM12 = 70.6W DIRM12 = 53DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 30.4N LONM24 = 74.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





640

WHXX01 KWBC 121239

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1239 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.3N 30.3W 11.2N 31.8W 11.0N 33.8W 10.8N 36.1W

BAMD 11.3N 30.3W 11.4N 32.9W 11.4N 35.5W 11.5N 38.0W

BAMM 11.3N 30.3W 11.3N 32.5W 11.1N 34.8W 11.2N 37.2W

LBAR 11.3N 30.3W 11.7N 33.8W 12.0N 37.3W 12.4N 40.7W

SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.0N 38.7W 12.4N 44.1W 14.7N 50.8W 17.0N 58.9W

BAMD 11.6N 40.4W 12.4N 44.5W 14.1N 48.4W 16.7N 52.1W

BAMM 11.4N 39.6W 12.6N 44.3W 14.5N 49.5W 16.9N 55.0W

LBAR 12.8N 44.1W 13.1N 49.9W 12.1N 53.1W .0N .0W

SHIP 41KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS

DSHP 41KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 30.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 26.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 22.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





352

WHXX01 KWBC 121243

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1243 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.7N 54.7W 25.5N 56.6W 26.3N 58.7W 27.2N 60.5W

BAMD 24.7N 54.7W 25.1N 56.4W 25.9N 57.7W 26.7N 58.8W

BAMM 24.7N 54.7W 25.5N 56.5W 26.4N 58.2W 27.4N 59.4W

LBAR 24.7N 54.7W 25.1N 56.7W 26.1N 58.7W 26.9N 60.7W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 28.0N 62.0W 30.6N 64.5W 36.2N 63.0W 41.7N 53.0W

BAMD 27.4N 59.6W 29.1N 60.6W 31.1N 61.0W 34.6N 58.9W

BAMM 28.4N 60.2W 31.0N 60.4W 33.7N 58.1W 35.5N 54.3W

LBAR 28.1N 62.2W 31.7N 63.0W 37.1N 59.0W 41.8N 49.6W

SHIP 48KTS 55KTS 54KTS 51KTS

DSHP 48KTS 55KTS 54KTS 51KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 24.7N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 52.7W DIRM12 = 253DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 26.0N LONM24 = 50.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





429

WHXX01 KWBC 121245

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1245 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.9W 20.3N 52.6W 22.0N 55.9W

BAMD 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.5W 20.1N 51.5W 21.2N 54.1W

BAMM 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.6W 20.3N 51.9W 21.7N 54.8W

LBAR 17.8N 45.3W 19.5N 48.8W 21.2N 52.2W 22.9N 55.3W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 38KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 38KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.5N 58.8W 27.0N 63.4W 31.6N 65.2W 37.3N 60.5W

BAMD 22.2N 56.4W 24.0N 60.3W 25.7N 64.1W 27.9N 66.4W

BAMM 23.1N 57.4W 26.0N 61.5W 29.6N 64.0W 34.9N 62.0W

LBAR 24.5N 57.7W 28.1N 59.9W 31.5N 59.3W 32.8N 56.7W

SHIP 43KTS 48KTS 52KTS 61KTS

DSHP 43KTS 48KTS 52KTS 61KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 45.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 41.4W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 20KT

LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 37.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

If all the invests form(which likely wont happen) This is how it would work out....
Franklin: 95L
Gert: 92L
Harvey: 94L
Irene: 93L
Quoting FLdewey:


What's the time period? Daily, weekly, etc.



knowing this blog, i'd say hourly at most. more likely minutely.

Quoting hurricane23:
Atlantic is active this morning but the good news is none of these systems pose a threat to land areas.



Should have said

Atlantic is active this morning but the good news is none of these systems pose a threat to land areas at the current time.


Saying with conviction that these will not effect land is just as bad as saying it will, your just on the other side of the coin.
1635. Hugo7
They should look at 92 a little harder, seems to have some decent rotation now.
Tried this morning to get to the FSU model site at moe.met.fsu.edu and it times out. Is it just me or is their site down? Also having trouble reaching the Allan Huffman's model site, can't even find the page. Can anybody reach these? Four invests on the Atlantic and I can't reach my favorite sites! The horror!
Would we be beating 2010 and 2008 if all 4 form?
1638. ncstorm
Quoting Huracaneer:
Tried this morning to get to the FSU model site at moe.met.fsu.edu and it times out. Is it just me or is their site down? Also having trouble reaching the Allan Huffman's model site, can't even find the page. Can anybody reach these? Four invests on the Atlantic and I can't reach my favorite sites! The horror!


I couldnt get on eithier..Try Penn State site

Link
1639. Grothar
You think the Atlantice is active now, just wait and look at the wave train


1640. hcubed
Well, this season's a bust

/sarc off
I can't pull them up either Huricaneer
1642. Hugo7
Looking at invest all have noticable rotation but 93
Quoting BobinTampa:
what's the over/under on what time somebody says 'Fujiwhara'? (besides this post obviously).



Fuji Apples.
So much exciting for all the invest.Everyone likes hurricanes everywhere.Later comes the "I'm sorry''.
Quoting Grothar:
You think the Atlantice is active now, just wait and look at the wave train


Dooms Days ahead.
Quoting SuperYooper:


Fuji Apples.


Fuji Film
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Quoting hurricane23:
Atlantic is active this morning but the good news is none of these systems pose a threat to land areas.



Should have said

Atlantic is active this morning but the good news is none of these systems pose a threat to land areas at the current time.


Saying with conviction that these will not effect land is just as bad as saying it will, your just on the other side of the coin.


Actually one can read between the lines as none of these current invest pose an immediate threat to any land areas. With four systems being monitored in Atlantic for potential tropical development its another reminder that the active part of cane season is here.
1648. hcubed
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Would we be beating 2010 and 2008 if all 4 form?


If all four form, we'll be tied with 2005.

The last time these names were used...
1649. MahFL
The drought in TX got worse, Exceptional went up from
73.49% to 78.26%.


Fujiwara? Where are the hurricanes?
Dang...I wake up this morning to 4 invests out there!
1652. FLdewey
Quoting BobinTampa:



knowing this blog, i'd say hourly at most. more likely minutely.



Hourly I'd say the over/under is 20

But this of course depends on the time of day... as the tweeners wake up the over/under might be better off at 60

Four little circles... nothing too impressive yet. Turn up the heat and let um simmer.
1653. barbamz
Quoting Grothar:
You think the Atlantice is active now, just wait and look at the wave train



I'm a train, I'm a train: http://www.myvideo.de/watch/2938516/Albert_Hammon d_I_m_A_Train
Wow I haven't been on in a few days. Looks like the NHC may need a new box of crayons in a few days.
Quoting hurricane23:


Actually one can read between the lines as none of these current invest pose an immediate threat to any land areas. With four systems being monitored in Atlantic for potential tropical development its another reminder that the active part of cane season is here.


Agreed.
Wow. NHC is going to have to pull the paper wrapping off their crayons so they can use the sides soon.
4 invests! Is it the record?
1658. ncstorm
From Allan Huffman yesterday..

The Islands need to watch both systems as they could threaten the Islands in a few to several days. Beyond this, the global models favor a persistent trough in the Northeast US and in the eastern US in general. Therefore the chance to re-curve is high, but if the western Atlantic ridge is in a flexing stage this could mean a close pass to the southeast coast. The 12z ECMWF shows Invest93 modestly developing and eventually moving into the Bahamas in 8-10 days and poised to threaten Florida or the southeast coast. So the theme is here, stay tuned, we are in the time of year now where these waves can develop and the strong Atlantic ridge should steer them west for a while.

1659. SaraGal
Quoting Grothar:
You think the Atlantice is active now, just wait and look at the wave train




Ok, Gro -- fess up! You're using your fancy new photoshop program :)
1661. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
You think the Atlantice is active now, just wait and look at the wave train


Right now it looks a lot like 1995...
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
4 invests! Is it the record?

Probably not. I think I saw five invests a few years ago.
Quoting Huracaneer:
Tried this morning to get to the FSU model site at moe.met.fsu.edu and it times out. Is it just me or is their site down? Also having trouble reaching the Allan Huffman's model site, can't even find the page. Can anybody reach these? Four invests on the Atlantic and I can't reach my favorite sites! The horror!
Link

It opened for me.
Good Morning Everyone! Man!!!! I just woke up and a friend of mine tells me they have 4 invests!! One word WOW! The way the map looks with the invest kinda resembles a trough coming off the east coast. Lol. But Gro u made a good point people better be ready because the African Train Waves are coming!!! U wanna see a preview of 2005, Here we go!! Everybody needs to pay close attention to every storm starting now.
1665. hydrus
GFS model shows storms recurving. Link
1666. HCW
I wouldn't be shocked if we have a new circle in the GOM after the cold front stalls Sunday in the GOM :)
1667. MahFL
Despite recent rains, the area of Florida abnormally dry is 83.29 %. Indeed today I smell smoke in downtown JAX.
1668. FLdewey
Quoting JasonIsCoolman:
LOOK AT FISH STORMS!!!! WOW!!!!!!!


Dolla bills y'all!

Good morning Jason... what's the forecast for these 4 beasts?
just finished watching our local tropical forcast here in florida and all 3 channels pretty much say that 92 and 93 will stay away from the entire east coast and recurve out to sea they are saying 2 fronts next week should protect the east coast ( lets keep our fingers crossed
there is a floater now on 94L..looks decent for a newly invested system.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link

It opened for me.

Thanks, you are right just had an old bookmark, when the FSU site did not open I started thinking about conspiracy theories. For some reason I always go back to the FSU site, just like it's presentation. It was probably all the users from here checking out the four invests that crashed the FSU site!
Quoting barbamz:


Wow, Invest 95 is heading directly to my place in Germany. Should I buy some plywood???
Good morning, btw.


Only Hanna affected me in 4 years in NC. Move to Germany, 2 months later 95L is pointing at me. Sheesh.
1673. hydrus
The S.W. Caribbean may have something brewing soon...NOGAPS has a tendency to overdo that region though..
1674. hydrus
92 looks alot different then yesterday..
that would be surprising especially given the high pressure pattern that is supposed to set up
Quoting FLdewey:


Dolla bills y'all!

Good morning Jason... what's the forecast for these 4 beasts?

EAST COAST TROF PROTECT US RIGHT NOW!!!
1677. barbamz
Quoting largeeyes:


Only Hanna affected me in 4 years in NC. Move to Germany, 2 months later 95L is pointing at me. Sheesh.

Yeah, we're doom all together, certainly. Otherwise, welcome here; hope you like it, though we don't have a real summer this year.
What is the most named/ invest at once inthe Atantic basin ?
1679. emcf30
What the heck. Signed on this morning to check the status of 93L and see you have 3 oranges and 1 lemon. This place is fixing to turn upside down.
this is the 9am report from the central florida hurricane center official forcast site 92L remains weak and by far most likely to recurve before reaching any land.

93L, if it remains weak and in the shadow will likely continue westward, if it were develop and strengthen chances of it moving north and recurving are much greater. It too will have to be monitored, but it is still most likely to recurve at some point. (Although like yesterday, it's much too far out to be certain of it)

It is likely the latter half of August will be busy in the tropics, with a good number of storms, but few making it close enough to worry about. The most concerning systems will be the ones that form closer toward the US or off of old fronts or systems.

Morning! Its a 4 way race to Franklin today, looks like 95L and 92L are in the lead.
1682. Matt74
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I was just going to say that. A long way out. But I wouldn't hate this.



Neither would I.
who left the crayon box out last night?
off to hide the red crayons!
1684. Thrawst
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Morning! Its a 4 way race to Franklin today, looks like 95L and 92L are in the lead.


Could be an interesting couple days ahead of us...
1685. ncstorm


1686. hydrus
ECMWF..93 heading west through the Caribbean..Link
Quoting hydrus:
ECMWF..93 heading west through the Caribbean..Link

and has it hitting me and Jamaica by FRI/SAT/SUN time frame
1688. hydrus
Quoting barbamz:

Yeah, we're doom all together, certainly. Otherwise, welcome here; hope you like it, though we don't have a real summer this year.


Summer? I'd hardly call this spring! Brrrrrr.
Although it's unlikely at all 4 invests get named, if they do, that would put us on pace to have some Greek Alphabeting.
1691. hydrus
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

and has it hitting me and Jamaica by FRI/SAT/SUN time frame
Could easily be a major hurricane if that track comes to fruition.
1692. MTWX
Morning all!! I see we now have 2 more invests to watch!! going to be fun trying to follow all the comments and try not to get what storms people are talking about confused with each other!
all the weather stations here out of florida are all saying that 92 and 93 will most likely recurve out to sea if they even develop and 2 big fronts that will push down off the east coast next week should also help tear them apart next week and recurve them that was on channel 3 5 and 9 and channel 13 at 945am
Good Morning...

The most immediate concren of the 4 invests would likly be 94 as it is moving in WSW and could be a threat to the eastern seaboard. It has a nice low level spin with a modest SW shear. With the trough in the NE US it would likely move WSW and then curve.

93 overall is possibly the most dangerous threat in the next two weeks as it could become a major headache to the islands and the eastern seaboard. We expect the trough in the NE US trough thru next week but could lift later the period allowing a west/northwest track.
93L doesn't look that good. At least for the time being. 92L on the other hand looks better than yesterday.
1696. MTWX
Quoting MahFL:
The drought in TX got worse, Exceptional went up from
73.49% to 78.26%.



the numbers are for the last week. I don't think theyy have taken into account the rain yesterday.... Definetley not "drought busting", but some areas received 3-4".

Quoting TampaTom:


Fuji Film


Here in SE Fla we called what Jeanne did the FujiWAMA!
Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on Fri, Aug 12, 2011.

As of Fri, 12 Aug 2011 13:45:01 GMT
2011 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
95L.INVEST
94L.INVEST
93L.INVEST
92L.INVEST

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
13W.THIRTEEN

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
1700. aquak9
Quoting HOTWHEELS99:
all the weather stations here out of florida are all saying that 92 and 93 will most likely recurve out to sea if they even develop and 2 big fronts that will push down off the east coast next week should also help tear them apart next week and recurve them that was on channel 3 5 and 9 and channel 13 at 945am


dude- how many tv's do you have?
Nobody expects... the Spanish Inquisition.
12.4n30.1w, 12.5n31.0w, 12.7n32.0w, 12.9n33.0w, 13.3n34.5w, 13.6n35.7w, 14.0n37.3w have been re-evaluated&altered for 92L's_12pmGMT_ATCF
12.4n30.3w, 12.8n32.1w, 13.3n33.9w, 13.9n35.6w, 14.6n37.4w, 15.4n39.4w, 16.2n41.4w, 17.0n43.3w, 17.8n45.3w are now the most recent*positions

10.6n22.5w, 10.8n24.0w, 11.0n25.6w have been re-evaluated&altered for 93L's_12pmGMT_ATCF
10.6n22.8w, 10.8n24.6w, 11.0n26.5w, 11.2n28.4w, 11.3n30.3w are now the recent positions

94L's_12pmGMT_ATCF
95L's_12pmGMT_ATCF


Starting at 11August_12pmGMT and ending at 12August_12pmGMT so that
92L's, 93L's, 94L's, and 95L's coordinates span the same 24hours

The westernmost grouping of red dots represents 95L's path,
the 2nd(western)grouping of red dots represents 94L's path,
the 3rd(eastern)grouping represents 92L's path,
and the easternmost grouping represents 93L's path.

Copy&paste 30.4n74.0w, 31.4n72.4w, 32.5n70.6w, 33.6n68.8w, 34.8n66.8w, bgi, 14.6n37.4w, 15.4n39.4w, 16.2n41.4w, 17.0n43.3w, 17.8n45.3w, vxe, 10.6n22.8w, 10.8n24.6w, 11.0n26.5w, 11.2n28.4w, 11.3n30.3w, bda, 26.0n50.9w, 25.5n51.8w, 25.2n52.7w, 25.0n53.6w, 24.7n54.7w, bda into the GreatCircleMapper to make your own map to play with.

The previous mapping (for 11August_12pmGMT)

* 15.2n39.0w, 15.8n40.6w, 16.3n42.1w, 16.8n43.7w were once again reevaluated&altered to
15.4n39.4w, 16.2n41.4w, 17.0n43.3w, 17.8n45.3w after the original 12August_12pmGMT posting
1702. dc8mech
haarp
looks like the same recurve pattern again this year like we did last with nothing hitting the east coast thank god hope it stay that way
Quoting hydrus:
ECMWF..93 heading west through the Caribbean..Link


yeah...then the east coast...
im at work, anyone have models for 94L? when i signed on it didn't have any graphics...just wondering movement, speed, etc
1705. nigel20
Good morning everyone. I see we have four areas of interest today.
Quoting aquak9:


dude- how many tv's do you have?
my guess 4 but useless with no brain
Independent of which of the AOI's actually develop this time around, sheer is really low out there from the Mid-Atlantic all the way into the Caribbean and Gulf. With the exception of potential dry air/SAL issues, it will be interesting if this general trend continues into late-August and the September peak (or longer into October if a La Nina cold bias emerges).

Link
Quoting dc8mech:
haarp


Why did you announce haarp? Because I saw something really strange, too.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 12 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-073

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 14/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 59.0W.
3. REMARKS: FOLLOW-ON FLIGHT ON 15 AUG AT 18Z NEAR 28N 64W. THEN
12 HOURLY REQUIREMENTS AFTER THAT. POSSIBLE TASKING ON
SUBSEQUENT ATLANTIC SYSTEM ON 16 AUG. ---CORRECTED
099

WHXX01 KWBC 121230

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1230 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 34.8N 66.8W 35.8N 64.0W 36.7N 61.9W 37.5N 60.2W

BAMD 34.8N 66.8W 37.1N 62.5W 39.7N 57.8W 42.2N 51.0W

BAMM 34.8N 66.8W 36.6N 63.3W 38.4N 60.0W 40.0N 56.1W

LBAR 34.8N 66.8W 37.1N 63.0W 40.4N 58.8W 43.8N 53.2W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 38.4N 58.6W 39.7N 54.0W 40.7N 49.8W 42.6N 45.3W

BAMD 43.4N 42.5W 44.5N 25.9W 46.7N 8.0W 48.6N 8.5E

BAMM 41.1N 51.8W 42.1N 43.7W 40.9N 38.3W 39.3N 37.2W

LBAR 46.2N 45.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 44KTS 34KTS 21KTS 0KTS

DSHP 44KTS 34KTS 21KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 34.8N LONCUR = 66.8W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 32.5N LONM12 = 70.6W DIRM12 = 53DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 30.4N LONM24 = 74.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





640

WHXX01 KWBC 121239

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1239 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.3N 30.3W 11.2N 31.8W 11.0N 33.8W 10.8N 36.1W

BAMD 11.3N 30.3W 11.4N 32.9W 11.4N 35.5W 11.5N 38.0W

BAMM 11.3N 30.3W 11.3N 32.5W 11.1N 34.8W 11.2N 37.2W

LBAR 11.3N 30.3W 11.7N 33.8W 12.0N 37.3W 12.4N 40.7W

SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.0N 38.7W 12.4N 44.1W 14.7N 50.8W 17.0N 58.9W

BAMD 11.6N 40.4W 12.4N 44.5W 14.1N 48.4W 16.7N 52.1W

BAMM 11.4N 39.6W 12.6N 44.3W 14.5N 49.5W 16.9N 55.0W

LBAR 12.8N 44.1W 13.1N 49.9W 12.1N 53.1W .0N .0W

SHIP 41KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS

DSHP 41KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 30.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 26.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 22.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





352

WHXX01 KWBC 121243

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1243 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.7N 54.7W 25.5N 56.6W 26.3N 58.7W 27.2N 60.5W

BAMD 24.7N 54.7W 25.1N 56.4W 25.9N 57.7W 26.7N 58.8W

BAMM 24.7N 54.7W 25.5N 56.5W 26.4N 58.2W 27.4N 59.4W

LBAR 24.7N 54.7W 25.1N 56.7W 26.1N 58.7W 26.9N 60.7W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 28.0N 62.0W 30.6N 64.5W 36.2N 63.0W 41.7N 53.0W

BAMD 27.4N 59.6W 29.1N 60.6W 31.1N 61.0W 34.6N 58.9W

BAMM 28.4N 60.2W 31.0N 60.4W 33.7N 58.1W 35.5N 54.3W

LBAR 28.1N 62.2W 31.7N 63.0W 37.1N 59.0W 41.8N 49.6W

SHIP 48KTS 55KTS 54KTS 51KTS

DSHP 48KTS 55KTS 54KTS 51KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 24.7N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 52.7W DIRM12 = 253DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 26.0N LONM24 = 50.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





429

WHXX01 KWBC 121245

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1245 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.9W 20.3N 52.6W 22.0N 55.9W

BAMD 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.5W 20.1N 51.5W 21.2N 54.1W

BAMM 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.6W 20.3N 51.9W 21.7N 54.8W

LBAR 17.8N 45.3W 19.5N 48.8W 21.2N 52.2W 22.9N 55.3W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 38KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 38KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.5N 58.8W 27.0N 63.4W 31.6N 65.2W 37.3N 60.5W

BAMD 22.2N 56.4W 24.0N 60.3W 25.7N 64.1W 27.9N 66.4W

BAMM 23.1N 57.4W 26.0N 61.5W 29.6N 64.0W 34.9N 62.0W

LBAR 24.5N 57.7W 28.1N 59.9W 31.5N 59.3W 32.8N 56.7W

SHIP 43KTS 48KTS 52KTS 61KTS

DSHP 43KTS 48KTS 52KTS 61KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 45.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 41.4W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 20KT

LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 37.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Most of the computer models today take 93L as a Caribbean trucker. Was fully expecting it to loose convection like it did overnight and apparently the NHC was too, will over the next few days become gradually better consolidated, with the possibility of a TD on Sunday, same deal with 92L.. though throughout the day I expect 92L to loose its convection too, it has zip convergence. 94L as it heads SW has favorable upper level conditions but has a lot of dry air around it, so gradual organization is possible. I expect if it will develop it will do so while completing its turn out to sea. 95L might be the most immediate threat to develop, as the NHC has tagged it 30% when it has 48 hours IMO to develop.
Quoting dc8mech:
haarp


what is haarp?
1713. Matt74
Quoting bigwes6844:
Good Morning Everyone! Man!!!! I just woke up and a friend of mine tells me they have 4 invests!! One word WOW! The way the map looks with the invest kinda resembles a trough coming off the east coast. Lol. But Gro u made a good point people better be ready because the African Train Waves are coming!!! U wanna see a preview of 2005, Here we go!! Everybody needs to pay close attention to every storm starting now.
Just a little overly excited this morning aren't we? No more coffee for you!
1714. ncstorm
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 12 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-073

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 14/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 59.0W.
3. REMARKS: FOLLOW-ON FLIGHT ON 15 AUG AT 18Z NEAR 28N 64W. THEN
12 HOURLY REQUIREMENTS AFTER THAT. POSSIBLE TASKING ON
SUBSEQUENT ATLANTIC SYSTEM ON 16 AUG. ---CORRECTED


which invest is this one for?
Complete Update

92.. 93.. 94.. 95.. Who said it was quiet and boring, with nothing to watch??

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Quoting redwagon:


Why did you announce haarp? Because I saw something really strange, too.


OK--when I was in my 20's many moons ago, I swore that DisneyWorld had some sort of "ion machine" I called it--b/c all the rain clouds would go AROUND Disney. It just seemed the air was somehow charged to repel the rain. Then, many moons later, I read about HAARP. Hmmmm....maybe I wasn't so far off.
Quoting tiggeriffic:


what is haarp?


Google it--or somebody REALLY up on it explain.
1718. nigel20

The SAL is pretty weak at the moment.
Quoting tiggeriffic:


what is haarp?
The High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) is an ionospheric research program jointly funded by the US Air Force, the US Navy, the University of Alaska and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).
Quoting Landfall2004:


OK--when I was in my 20's many moons ago, I swore that DisneyWorld had some sort of "ion machine" I called it--b/c all the rain clouds would go AROUND Disney. It just seemed the air was somehow charged to repel the rain. Then, many moons later, I read about HAARP. Hmmmm....maybe I wasn't so far off.

#1674 looks mighty odd.
1721. dc8mech
alaska, and just east of keys
1722. JRRP

el tropico parece una escalera
1723. nigel20

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
The High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) is an ionospheric research program jointly funded by the US Air Force, the US Navy, the University of Alaska and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).


Should be HFARRP.
1725. nigel20

93L
this reminds me exactly of last year and hopefully nothing will hit the east coast and from what the weather channels are saying here it might just be that thank god just alot of problems this year for the shipping lanes
Quoting hydrus:
ECMWF..93 heading west through the Caribbean..Link

no way! it is bound to take a more northern track than that, don't you think? i thought the high was going to turn it to The northwest once it got to the islands. is the high not going to be where it was expected to be? will the gulf coast have to worry about this in your opinion? tia!

1675. kshipre1 1:35 PM GMT on August 12, 2011 +0
that would be surprising especially given the high pressure pattern that is supposed to set up

how is the high pressure pattern supposed to set up? tia!

1728. hydrus
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Should be HFARRP.
weather machine for short
Quoting ncstorm:


which invest is this one for?


94L. Perhaps 92L on Tuesday.
1731. nigel20
Is it possible that 93L could track close to Jamaica?
most likely by next week all these invests will either be gone and fizzled out or way out in the atlantic been the pattern latley
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Should be HFARRP.


Great. Now you got me thinking of Dr. Michael Hfuhruhurr. I'll be walking around all day telling everyone I need Metzenbaum scissors and to get that cat out of here.
Quoting nigel20:
Is it possible that 93L could track close to Jamaica?


Too early tell because you are talking over a week out and the models are going to shift between now and then. Possible yes; Certain no.
7 AM EDT 12 August 2011 Update: (from the central florida hurricane center )
The tropics continue to bubble today with 4 separate areas worth watching. A broad low area northeast of the Caribbean has "broke off" from the remnants of Emily and moved with the flow back south. This is very weak at the moment, but based on the time of year it has to be watched to see if something comes of it, it is not being tracked as an invest it this time. Of all the systems currently highlighted in the Atlantic, this may wind up being the most interesting and it should be watched closely to see if anything forms out of it, if it does it has a higher than usual chance to affect the Bahamas and possibly the coast. Thankfully it is the least likely to develop out of all the systems in the Hurricane Center's outlook.

92L remains weak and by far most likely to recurve before reaching any land.

93L, if it remains weak and in the shadow will likely continue westward, if it were develop and strengthen chances of it moving north and recurving are much greater. It too will have to be monitored, but it is still most likely to recurve at some point. (Although like yesterday, it's much too far out to be certain of it)

It is likely the latter half of August will be busy in the tropics, with a good number of storms, but few making it close enough to worry about. The most concerning systems will be the ones that form closer toward the US or off of old fronts or systems
1737. nigel20
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Too early tell because you are talking over a week out and the models are going to shift between now and then. Possible yes; Certain no.

Thanks for your input.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
weather machine for short

If there's a met term for what happened in #1674 I'd sure like to know what it is.
1741. P451
Quoting Ryuujin:
So many trolls out now. And wow, crazy! 4 invests all of a sudden. What next?!


A lot of arguments over what they will do and where they will go.
1742. hydrus
Quoting sarahjola:

no way! it is bound to take a more northern track than that, don't you think? i thought the high was going to turn it to The northwest once it got to the islands. is the high not going to be where it was expected to be? will the gulf coast have to worry about this in your opinion? tia!

1675. kshipre1 1:35 PM GMT on August 12, 2011 +0
that would be surprising especially given the high pressure pattern that is supposed to set up

how is the high pressure pattern supposed to set up? tia!

The weaker it is while crossing the Atlantic, the further west it will track. There are a lot of different scenarios for 93L. If it does actually enter the Caribbean, this system will be nothing short of dangerous. If for some reason it ends up north of the Leeward Islands, I believe it has a decent chance of recurvature..It is worth mentioning that if the track is just north or south of the Greater Antilles, it most likely will effect Florida and possibly the eastern gulf..jmo
1743. nigel20
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

Wow!!!
Everyone seems very excited this morning about these new invests.

To me it still looks like there are several areas of "disturbed weather" out there.... but none of these invests seem imminent to develop. None of them seem likely to become strong. And none of them pose any threat to land in the NEAR future.

I feel like everyones guess right now is just that... a guess. Until these storms look halfway decent there is no telling if they will form, how strong they'll be, or where they'll go.

I still get the general impression 93 is the only one even worth paying any attention to (at least for now), and even that is so weak and so far down the road.....
1745. hahaguy
Hmmm... so I see we have 92L,93L,94L95l all lined up this morning.
Quoting redwagon:


Why did you announce haarp? Because I saw something really strange, too.


Okay, so this morning I have seen Fujiwara and Haarp...dare I? I do...HEBERT BOX

Anyone see my Hebert Box and raise me TUNNELS?

LOL
1747. IKE

Joe Bastardi
At least it deals with the
weather. BTW I think Dr Jeff Masters is genuine in his ideas, even
though I disagree with him on AGW
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Everyone seems very excited this morning about these new invests.

To me it still looks like there are several areas of "disturbed weather" out there.... but none of these invests seem imminent to develop. None of them seem likely to become strong. And none of them pose any threat to land in the NEAR future.

I feel like everyones guess right now is just that... a guess. Until these storms look halfway decent there is no telling if they will form, how strong they'll be, or where they'll go.

I still get the general impression 93 is the only one even worth paying any attention to (at least for now), and even that is so weak and so far down the road.....
that really sums it up nothing to worry about even all of our weather channels here in florida say all fish storms again like last year
thank god for fronts and the bermuda high
Quoting hahaguy:
Hmmm... so I see we have 92L,93L,94L95l all lined up this morning.
another 2 or three cicles and we can have an atlantic that looks like swiss cheese
1750. SQUAWK
Quoting redwagon:

If there's a met term for what happened in #1674 I'd sure like to know what it is.

SR-71 shock wave
1751. ncstorm
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Everyone seems very excited this morning about these new invests.

To me it still looks like there are several areas of "disturbed weather" out there.... but none of these invests seem imminent to develop. None of them seem likely to become strong. And none of them pose any threat to land in the NEAR future.

I feel like everyones guess right now is just that... a guess. Until these storms look halfway decent there is no telling if they will form, how strong they'll be, or where they'll go.

I still get the general impression 93 is the only one even worth paying any attention to (at least for now), and even that is so weak and so far down the road.....


well 94L might be a threat to the SE coast as well..I hate being redundant but its really a wait and see for ALL these storms..mother nature always has tricks up her sleeves..
Quoting Floodman:


Okay, so this morning I have seen Fujiwara and Haarp...dare I? I do...HEBERT BOX

Anyone see my Hebert Box and raise me TUNNELS?

LOL


FLOOD!!!!! MUAH BABY!
1753. JNCali

Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Should be HFARRP.

The sound my grampa used to make right before mom would hurriedly open the closest window... memories...
Quoting redwagon:

If there's a met term for what happened in #1674 I'd sure like to know what it is.

It's just a downlink/processing error from one of the satellite passes. (Note that the error is wider near the top of the image; that's due to the distortions inherent in the Mercator projection used, which causes increasing distortion as one moves away from the Equator.)
If all four of these were to develop, and then Jose forms shortly after, we would be ahead of 2005!
Here is a "pretty" model link for latest GFS run on all of our AOI's; click on top to animate.

Link
92 = recurve and fizzle
93 = recurve
94 = fizzle
95 = runnin g in circles in the middle of nowhere
1758. ncstorm
I'm out..I will be back for the GFS DOOM run later..
Quoting hydrus:
The weaker it is while crossing the Atlantic, the further west it will track. There are a lot of different scenarios for 93L. If it does actually enter the Caribbean, this system will be nothing short of dangerous. If for some reason it ends up north of the Leeward Islands, I believe it has a decent chance of recurvature..It is worth mentioning that if the track is just north or south of the Greater Antilles, it most likely will effect Florida and possibly the eastern gulf..jmo
thanks for the lesson:) do you know what the current set up is for high pressure? is it not the high pressure steerring these systems? do you know where i can get a steering current map or outlook? tia
Quoting IKE:

Joe Bastardi
At least it deals with the
weather. BTW I think Dr Jeff Masters is genuine in his ideas, even
though I disagree with him on AGW

Yea, I saw that last evening. JB's been on a tear the past few days--an unscientific tear, but a tear nonetheless... ;-)
Quoting Floodman:


Okay, so this morning I have seen Fujiwara and Haarp...dare I? I do...HEBERT BOX

Anyone see my Hebert Box and raise me TUNNELS?

LOL
i raise you 2 herbert boxes and a john hope rule to your 1 herbert box and tunnels
1762. Hugo7
95 prolly gonna get upgraded soon to td, 94(Emily) looks like it has a good chance, but will take a few more days or peter away because of lack of moisture. 93 looks good if it could get it's act together, and 92 is a front runner for hurricane, cat 1-2.
Quoting HOTWHEELS99:
all the weather stations here out of florida are all saying that 92 and 93 will most likely recurve out to sea if they even develop and 2 big fronts that will push down off the east coast next week should also help tear them apart next week and recurve them that was on channel 3 5 and 9 and channel 13 at 945am


I dont think many people are listening anyway. Seems they have forgotten 2004 already. None of this is getting a blip in CentFLA.
1764. SQUAWK
Quoting JNCali:


The sound my grampa used to make right before mom would hurriedly open the closest window... memories...


ROTFLMAO


and I got the visual
1747. IKE

I see you got patented
Miami NWS not so bullish anymore with the trough next week.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 121233
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
303 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

THEN
INDICATE A SURGE OF DRIER AIR SPREADING WEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DIPPING SOUTH OVER THE SERN REGION...REMAINING NORTH OF
OUR AREA. IF THIS VERIFIES...BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL CHANCES AND
HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST LIKELY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD NEXT WEEK.
Quoting Neapolitan:

It's just a downlink/processing error from one of the satellite passes. (Note that the error is wider near the top of the image; that's due to the distortions inherent in the Mercator projection used, which causes increasing distortion as one moves away from the Equator.)

Agreed, after dashing for some emergency coffee and looking again, you can clearly see the artifact.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Here is a "pretty" model link for latest GFS run on all of our AOI's; click on top to animate.

Link


yes, veeeery "pretty"!
its the invest train to nowhere
1770. Buhdog
Quoting Floodman:


Okay, so this morning I have seen Fujiwara and Haarp...dare I? I do...HEBERT BOX

Anyone see my Hebert Box and raise me TUNNELS?

LOL


i raise one pumping the ridge
Quoting HOTWHEELS99:
its the invest train to nowhere
only one going nowhere is you
1773. nigel20
Quoting HOTWHEELS99:
92 = recurve and fizzle
93 = recurve
94 = fizzle
95 = runnin g in circles in the middle of nowhere

I don't think that 93L will recurve.
Quoting tiggeriffic:


what is haarp?


"HAARP is a scientific endeavor aimed at studying the properties and behavior of the ionosphere, with particular emphasis on being able to understand and use it to enhance communications and surveillance systems for both civilian and defense purposes.

The HAARP program is committed to developing a world class ionospheric research facility consisting of:

* The Ionospheric Research Instrument (IRI), a high power transmitter facility operating in the High Frequency (HF) range. The IRI will be used to temporarily excite a limited area of the ionosphere for scientific study.
* A sophisticated suite of scientific (or diagnostic) instruments that will be used to observe the physical processes that occur in the excited region.

Observation of the processes resulting from the use of the IRI in a controlled manner will allow scientists to better understand processes that occur continuously under the natural stimulation of the sun."

That's the official word on the program...unofficially it is claimed by a number of individuals that HAARP is altrenatly a weather control technology, a communications device for speaking with , hell, I don't know a or even, heaven help us, a device for causing earthquakes...
1775. usa777
Quoting HOTWHEELS99:
this reminds me exactly of last year and hopefully nothing will hit the east coast and from what the weather channels are saying here it might just be that thank god just alot of problems this year for the shipping lanes


Huh?
Quoting Floodman:


Okay, so this morning I have seen Fujiwara and Haarp...dare I? I do...HEBERT BOX

Anyone see my Hebert Box and raise me TUNNELS?

LOL
heck... I'll see your TUNNELS and raise you a Pumped Ridge!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i raise you 2 herbert boxes and a john hope rule to your 1 herbert box and tunnels


I have a full house, naked swirl over pumping the ridge.
1778. divdog
Quoting gatorman98:


I dont think many people are listening anyway. Seems they have forgotten 2004 already. None of this is getting a blip in CentFLA.
Storms are too far away and undeveloped for any stations in cfla or for that matter anywhere in the U.S.A to become concerned at this point. Being prepared is what alleviates alot of the worries that hurricanes can cause whether they come close to you or not. Just be prepared, you will have plenty of time to make a plan if a storm approaches.
1779. FLdewey
Quoting JNCali:


The sound my grampa used to make right before mom would hurriedly open the closest window... memories...


Nice... ;-)
Quoting usa777:


Huh?
the stairs don't go all the way to the landing with this one
1781. hydrus
Some rain for Texas..
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the stairs don't go all the way to the landing with this one


ROFL +100!
Quoting tiggeriffic:


FLOOD!!!!! MUAH BABY!


Hows things, tig? MUAH back atya!
1784. nigel20
What would have to happen for 94 to threaten the SE? Based on the models I was thinking it would quickly recurve around the high pressure out to sea... if it even becomes anything more than a few clouds with a slight spin
1786. nigel20
Quoting hydrus:
Some rain for Texas..

That's really nice to know.
1787. MTWX
Quoting SQUAWK:

SR-71 shock wave

If only we still used them.. ;)
Quoting 12george1:
If all four of these were to develop, and then Jose forms shortly after, we would be ahead of 2005!


And if pigs had wings we'd all of us carry an umbrella
Quoting Floodman:


Hows things, tig? MUAH back atya!


pulling another 12hr today...yay me...lol...shoulda come out last night...pot roast with baby taters n carrots for dinner with a side of watermelon n peanut butter cookies with mini reseese cups in em...
Quoting Floodman:


Okay, so this morning I have seen Fujiwara and Haarp...dare I? I do...HEBERT BOX

Anyone see my Hebert Box and raise me TUNNELS?

LOL

HAARP has been used to influence hurricanes traveling through the Hebert Box, potentially causing them to exhibit a Fujiwara effect and take a route over the storm-killing Tunnels.
1791. P451
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i raise you 2 herbert boxes and a john hope rule to your 1 herbert box and tunnels


I'll see that and toss in a NOLA.

1792. usa777
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the stairs don't go all the way to the landing with this one

Lmao
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i raise you 2 herbert boxes and a john hope rule to your 1 herbert box and tunnels


I'm very tempted to raise you heightened sunspot activity and Project StormFury...what the hell! In for a penny, in for a pound...called and raised
1794. NEwxguy
Ahhh,now we getting into some real forcasting.

I'll see your pumped ridge and raise you two deep troughs.

XXL MOVEMENT
92L WNW
93L W
94L WSW
95L NE
OMGROTMFFLMMFAOWTFLOL?!!!!
Quoting SQUAWK:


ROTFLMAO


and I got the visual

7 AM EDT 12 August 2011 Update from the Central Florida Hurricane Center:
The tropics continue to bubble today with 4 separate areas worth watching. A broad low area northeast of the Caribbean has "broke off" from the remnants of Emily and moved with the flow back south. This is very weak at the moment, but based on the time of year it has to be watched to see if something comes of it, it is not being tracked as an invest it this time. Of all the systems currently highlighted in the Atlantic, this may wind up being the most interesting and it should be watched closely to see if anything forms out of it, if it does it has a higher than usual chance to affect the Bahamas and possibly the coast. Thankfully it is the least likely to develop out of all the systems in the Hurricane Center's outlook.

92L remains weak and by far most likely to recurve before reaching any land.

93L, if it remains weak and in the shadow will likely continue westward, if it were develop and strengthen chances of it moving north and recurving are much greater. It too will have to be monitored, but it is still most likely to recurve at some point. (Although like yesterday, it's much too far out to be certain of it)

It is likely the latter half of August will be busy in the tropics, with a good number of storms, but few making it close enough to worry about. The most concerning systems will be the ones that form closer toward the US or off of old fronts or systems if and when something should form this season.
Quoting hydrus:
Some rain for Texas..


Wow, when was this? We got some srpinkles he in SA overnight
1799. hydrus
Quoting sarahjola:
thanks for the lesson:) do you know what the current set up is for high pressure? is it not the high pressure steerring these systems? do you know where i can get a steering current map or outlook? tia
Tracking high pressure in the Atlantic the past 45 days has been very complex, in fact nerve wracking. This area could get interesting soon...The squashed potato look the AB high has had lately as opposed to our close to oval feature..48 hours out
1800. MTWX
Quoting hydrus:
Some rain for Texas..

Looks promising on the IR, but there isnt squat on the radar.

Link
1801. nigel20
1802. Jax82
MMMmmmmm Toasty.

Quoting Floodman:


Wow, when was this? We got some srpinkles he in SA overnight

Nothing in Austin yet. Patiently waiting for another Hermine.
1805. Matt74
Quoting Jax82:
MMMmmmmm Toasty.

Thats a recipe for trouble if anything gets in there!
1806. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:


Wow, when was this? We got some srpinkles he in SA overnight
Good morning Flood...I just noticed it myself. N.E.Texas may get some more..This little guy could effect Cuba..
Quoting redwagon:

Nothing in Austin yet. Patiently waiting for another Hermine.


It was 8:45 UTC (a little over 6 hours ago). Nice blow up of convection overnight but it's since waned.
1808. dc8mech
all in. i see your ridge, and tunnels, fujiwara, and so called herbert box. and raise you a few ions.
1809. hydrus
Quoting MTWX:

Looks promising on the IR, but there isnt squat on the radar.

Link
I think it happened last night..It has all but dissipated..More rain is certainly possible tho..
I raise a pinhole eye and a shower curtain
1811. Jax82
Quoting Matt74:
Thats a recipe for trouble if anything gets in there!


Plenty of fuel for the fire, lets just hope a fire doesnt start.
Quoting jeffs713:

HAARP has been used to influence hurricanes traveling through the Hebert Box, potentially causing them to exhibit a Fujiwara effect and take a route over the storm-killing Tunnels.


Alright, you win!
Quoting jeffs713:

HAARP has been used to influence hurricanes traveling through the Hebert Box, potentially causing them to exhibit a Fujiwara effect and take a route over the storm-killing Tunnels.
on the deforested mountains of Hispaniola.
FWIW 12Z NAM likes 94L (I know not a model)

Link
1815. MTWX
Quoting hydrus:
I think it happened last night..It has all but dissipated..More rain is certainly possible tho..

Check out the rainfall totals for yesterday!

Quoting Floodman:


Alright, you win!


Hey Flood, long time no see. Not sure if that's because I have been away or you haven't been on or both LOL

A real parade of mischief makers out in the Atlantic. One of them, 92L, looks like dry air is choking it right now with all those outflow boundaries on the entire west side of the circulation. As for the rest, 93L is the one to watch IMO. Not looking too hot right now but that will only help it stay low and chug along to the West, sort of in stealth mode.
well I haven't been on in a little while. Things have been quiet. I have been keeping an eye on the tropics and we now have 4 circles on NOAA page. Three orange (2 40% and 1 30%).

Part of Emily's remnants look like they could be trouble for the Bahamas and possibly the SE coast. I am not sure if this system would be named Emily again since the "low" that was Emily went NE over the North Atlantic.

92L is looking like the best chance to become the next tropical depression but most of the models show the storm re-curving but it is too early to tell. I think the East Coast should keep an eye on this one. This "low" might actually interfere with the "Remnants of Emily" since they are starting to get very close to each other.

There is also an area of "low Pressure" off the SE coast which is expected to move NE. I am not sure on this system becoming a TS since it has little time to do so but it is looking better on the Satellites. I don't see it being a problem for any land areas unless you count the Azores.

Finally, we have 93L which is the scariest of all the systems we have brewing. It is on a path further south than the previous three mentioned above. There are models which show this system making it into the Caribbean. Let me tell you why I think this is the likely scenario.

It looks like 92L will probably develop first into a TS. It is quite possible that this storm interferes with 93L and keeps it weak which would push it on a more westerly path. I think it's location also will help it along into the Caribbean. Now some models show the storm as a big hurricane near Burmuda before hitting Eastern Canada. This is a real concern to me. Any system that gets that close to land in the North East is something to keep a GOOD eye on because any change in the trough and you have the first hurricane in the NE in years. That would be the worst thing that could happen right now with the economy. Bottom Line: 93L is the one to really watch.

Oh and one last thing. It looks like the tropical train has started. Think the activity from here on out will be breath taking. That is good for all of us tropical loving folks. Lets just pray none plow through the oil fields in the gulf.



Quoting dc8mech:
all in. i see your ridge, and tunnels, fujiwara, and so called herbert box. and raise you a few ions.


Sorry, can't accept herbert box...this is "Questionable Meteorological Terms and Concepts Poker"...however we will playing "Made up out of Whole Cloth Dominos" in a couple of hours
1819. hcubed
Quoting Floodman:


Okay, so this morning I have seen Fujiwara and Haarp...dare I? I do...HEBERT BOX

Anyone see my Hebert Box and raise me TUNNELS?

LOL


You want tunnels?

He was in full force over at RR's climate blog the other day.

We don't need him here...
1820. hydrus
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
FWIW 12Z NAM likes 94L (I know not a model)

Link
May end up further west on next model run..
1821. scott39
93L looks like it will catch 92L, absorb its energy and keep moving W. The Euro has it on a much more southern track than it did. If this stays the same, then I think it would go through the Caribbean threatning Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
Quoting hcubed:


You want tunnels?

He was in full force over at RR's climate blog the other day.

We don't need him here...


Shhh...speak of the devil and he shall appear...
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Flood...I just noticed it myself. N.E.Texas may get some more..This little guy could effect Cuba..


Already effected our weather here in pr a bit with showers and thurnderstorm flare ups caused by its little cute tail
1711 CybrTeddy "...95L might be the most immediate threat to develop, as the NHC has tagged it 30% when it has 48 hours IMO to develop."

Hokay, where did you see 95L? Been waiting since you first posted that part, expecting ATCF to post a confirmation. But nothing's showing up.
Hard times...

1828. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:


Sorry, can't accept herbert box...this is "Questionable Meteorological Terms and Concepts Poker"...however we will playing "Made up out of Whole Cloth Dominos" in a couple of hours
All in....
Quoting tiggeriffic:


pulling another 12hr today...yay me...lol...shoulda come out last night...pot roast with baby taters n carrots for dinner with a side of watermelon n peanut butter cookies with mini reseese cups in em...


I always miss the good meals...I won;t even talk about the 12 hour days

LOL
The 95 Blob looks better than any other. Unfortunately it has only a little time left.
1831. Buhdog
I call ants in the house and some crawfish crawling to higher ground.

Link

1832. hydrus
1833. SQUAWK
Quoting cloudburst2011:



thats old news scott i been saying that since yesterday morning...


That's old news cloudburst, I been saying that since day before yesterday.
Quoting kmanislander:


Hey Flood, long time no see. Not sure if that's because I have been away or you haven't been on or both LOL

A real parade of mischief makers out in the Atlantic. One of them, 92L, looks like dry air is choking it right now with all those outflow boundaries on the entire west side of the circulation. As for the rest, 93L is the one to watch IMO. Not looking too hot right now but that will only help it stay low and chug along to the West, sort of in stealth mode.


Apparently my first response got lost sonewhere...Hey, kman! Been in and out myself though I've been busy and don't typically post much the last few weeks or so...

As for our traffic jam in the Atlantic? You are absolutely correct: the ones that stay small have the greatest chance of missing the predicted turns, continuing westward and causing serious trouble for someone. I dread to think what will happen if something small but organized hits the GOM or the Caribbean low...the potential is pretty disastrous
Darn it got removed.
Quoting Floodman:


Shhh...speak of the devil and he shall appear...


if you say his name three time while in a tunnel he will appear! Cyclone..... no i wont give in!!

on a weather note LOLA near shore wave models predicting 16+ft swells for northern antilles next week (thursday)
Quoting Buhdog:
I call ants in the house and some crawfish crawling to higher ground.

Link



This is why buhdog is beloved amongst bloggers, his flair for the potentially true but seemingly ridiculous
Quoting aspectre:
1711 CybrTeddy "...95L might be the most immediate threat to develop, as the NHC has tagged it 30% when it has 48 hours IMO to develop."

Hokay, where did you see 95L? Been waiting since you first posted that part, expecting ATCF to post a confirmation. But nothing's showing up.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/
Quoting aspectre:
1711 CybrTeddy "...95L might be the most immediate threat to develop, as the NHC has tagged it 30% when it has 48 hours IMO to develop."

Hokay, where did you see 95L? Been waiting since you first posted that part, expecting ATCF to post a confirmation. But nothing's showing up.


Link

water vapor upper level and mid level




Quoting mrpuertorico:


if you say his name three time while in a tunnel he will appear! Cyclone..... no i wont give in!!

on a weather note LOLA near shore wave models predicting 16+ft swells for northern antilles next week (thursday)


Sounds like they're preparing for something major
1843. nigel20

93L
Quoting kmanislander:


Hey Flood, long time no see. Not sure if that's because I have been away or you haven't been on or both LOL

A real parade of mischief makers out in the Atlantic. One of them, 92L, looks like dry air is choking it right now with all those outflow boundaries on the entire west side of the circulation. As for the rest, 93L is the one to watch IMO. Not looking too hot right now but that will only help it stay low and chug along to the West, sort of in stealth mode.
mornin kman ya stealth mode is the worse mode come up on ya all of a sudden without warning out of the clear blue sky
1845. FLdewey
Dang it someone took ants?

Grrr...

How about a "Don't quote Jason he's on my ignore list?"
Anyone know which one is 94L, and do we have 95L? Hopefully someone sees this before a troll removes it.
If the 6Z GFS is correct then the GOM and Texas better closely monitor 93L!!!

Quoting NEwxguy:
Ahhh,now we getting into some real forcasting.

I'll see your pumped ridge and raise you two deep troughs.


Two TUTTs and failed recurve
1849. Matt74
Quoting Jax82:


Plenty of fuel for the fire, lets just hope a fire doesnt start.
I was at the beach last weekend on the upper tx coast, and that water was like taking a dirty hot bath!
Quoting FLdewey:
Dang it someone took ants?

Grrr...

How about a "Don't quote Jason he's on my ignore list?"


No, that's another game entirely...
Can it already be SEVEN years since Charley?

1852. Mucinex
Something needs to get named soon cause I want to break into my supply of hurricane candy.

Also, I can pass a "Neil Frank BuzzCut Hurricane Deflector" under the table if someone needs it.

1853. nigel20
Quoting tropicfreak:
Anyone know which one is 94L, and do we have 95L? Hopefully someone sees this before a troll removes it.

94L is nw of 92L and 95L is nw of 94L
Just a few minutes away for the GFS run. Let's see what dramatic solution it comes up with this time around.
Quoting Floodman:


This is why buhdog is beloved amongst bloggers, his flair for the potentially true but seemingly ridiculous

you got that right batman...love critter casting... and btw...when the fiddlers disappeared from here when emily was crossing the bahamas and near FL...we ended up with massive waves and bad bad rips that sat and sunday...looks like the critters knew it was gonna happen...
Quoting nigel20:

94L is nw of 92L and 95L is nw of 94L



Thanks!
Quoting Floodman:


Sounds like they're preparing for something major


the models show the bulk of the large swell passing south of pr but not by much ill keep checking the NOLA forcast models as they r updated leter on in the weekend but it is interesting
1858. MTWX
Quoting tropicfreak:
Anyone know which one is 94L, and do we have 95L? Hopefully someone sees this before a troll removes it.

94L is the system that has moved around the Bermuda high heading to intercept 92L, while 95L is the little smudge off of the east coast heading toward Europe.
Quoting blsealevel:

water vapor upper level and mid level






here is full view

Quoting tropicfreak:
Anyone know which one is 94L, and do we have 95L? Hopefully someone sees this before a troll removes it.

The blob NW of 92L.
Also i noticed that 92L transformed from a big broad disorganized swirl to a tiny blob
1861. nigel20
Quoting tropicfreak:



Thanks!

No problem.
Quoting nigel20:

94L is nw of 92L and 95L is nw of 94L


"PROGRAM! GET YOUR PROGRAM! You won't be able to tell one Invest from another without your PROGRAM!"

1863. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:


"PROGRAM! GET YOUR PROGRAM! You won't be able to tell one Invest from another without your PROGRAM!"



may i, can i, have some of what you are having please...i wanna have that much fun... :P
1865. hydrus
1866. nigel20
Is it possible that 94L and 92L will interact or impede each other?
Quoting Floodman:


Apparently my first response got lost sonewhere...Hey, kman! Been in and out myself though I've been busy and don't typically post much the last few weeks or so...

As for our traffic jam in the Atlantic? You are absolutely correct: the ones that stay small have the greatest chance of missing the predicted turns, continuing westward and causing serious trouble for someone. I dread to think what will happen if something small but organized hits the GOM or the Caribbean low...the potential is pretty disastrous


This is a neutral ENSO year and that is a big concern for me.
099

WHXX01 KWBC 121230

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1230 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 34.8N 66.8W 35.8N 64.0W 36.7N 61.9W 37.5N 60.2W

BAMD 34.8N 66.8W 37.1N 62.5W 39.7N 57.8W 42.2N 51.0W

BAMM 34.8N 66.8W 36.6N 63.3W 38.4N 60.0W 40.0N 56.1W

LBAR 34.8N 66.8W 37.1N 63.0W 40.4N 58.8W 43.8N 53.2W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 38.4N 58.6W 39.7N 54.0W 40.7N 49.8W 42.6N 45.3W

BAMD 43.4N 42.5W 44.5N 25.9W 46.7N 8.0W 48.6N 8.5E

BAMM 41.1N 51.8W 42.1N 43.7W 40.9N 38.3W 39.3N 37.2W

LBAR 46.2N 45.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 44KTS 34KTS 21KTS 0KTS

DSHP 44KTS 34KTS 21KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 34.8N LONCUR = 66.8W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 32.5N LONM12 = 70.6W DIRM12 = 53DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 30.4N LONM24 = 74.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





640

WHXX01 KWBC 121239

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1239 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.3N 30.3W 11.2N 31.8W 11.0N 33.8W 10.8N 36.1W

BAMD 11.3N 30.3W 11.4N 32.9W 11.4N 35.5W 11.5N 38.0W

BAMM 11.3N 30.3W 11.3N 32.5W 11.1N 34.8W 11.2N 37.2W

LBAR 11.3N 30.3W 11.7N 33.8W 12.0N 37.3W 12.4N 40.7W

SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.0N 38.7W 12.4N 44.1W 14.7N 50.8W 17.0N 58.9W

BAMD 11.6N 40.4W 12.4N 44.5W 14.1N 48.4W 16.7N 52.1W

BAMM 11.4N 39.6W 12.6N 44.3W 14.5N 49.5W 16.9N 55.0W

LBAR 12.8N 44.1W 13.1N 49.9W 12.1N 53.1W .0N .0W

SHIP 41KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS

DSHP 41KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 30.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 26.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 22.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





352

WHXX01 KWBC 121243

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1243 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.7N 54.7W 25.5N 56.6W 26.3N 58.7W 27.2N 60.5W

BAMD 24.7N 54.7W 25.1N 56.4W 25.9N 57.7W 26.7N 58.8W

BAMM 24.7N 54.7W 25.5N 56.5W 26.4N 58.2W 27.4N 59.4W

LBAR 24.7N 54.7W 25.1N 56.7W 26.1N 58.7W 26.9N 60.7W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 28.0N 62.0W 30.6N 64.5W 36.2N 63.0W 41.7N 53.0W

BAMD 27.4N 59.6W 29.1N 60.6W 31.1N 61.0W 34.6N 58.9W

BAMM 28.4N 60.2W 31.0N 60.4W 33.7N 58.1W 35.5N 54.3W

LBAR 28.1N 62.2W 31.7N 63.0W 37.1N 59.0W 41.8N 49.6W

SHIP 48KTS 55KTS 54KTS 51KTS

DSHP 48KTS 55KTS 54KTS 51KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 24.7N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 52.7W DIRM12 = 253DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 26.0N LONM24 = 50.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





429

WHXX01 KWBC 121245

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1245 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.9W 20.3N 52.6W 22.0N 55.9W

BAMD 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.5W 20.1N 51.5W 21.2N 54.1W

BAMM 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.6W 20.3N 51.9W 21.7N 54.8W

LBAR 17.8N 45.3W 19.5N 48.8W 21.2N 52.2W 22.9N 55.3W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 38KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 38KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.5N 58.8W 27.0N 63.4W 31.6N 65.2W 37.3N 60.5W

BAMD 22.2N 56.4W 24.0N 60.3W 25.7N 64.1W 27.9N 66.4W

BAMM 23.1N 57.4W 26.0N 61.5W 29.6N 64.0W 34.9N 62.0W

LBAR 24.5N 57.7W 28.1N 59.9W 31.5N 59.3W 32.8N 56.7W

SHIP 43KTS 48KTS 52KTS 61KTS

DSHP 43KTS 48KTS 52KTS 61KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 45.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 41.4W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 20KT

LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 37.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Hear is another good sat link to our AOI's showing the transitions since yesterday on 92L and 93L....Let it load up.........93L looks like a keeper for sure.

Link
ok...bbl...gotta grab some lunch...thinkin it is a sushi kind of day...YUM!
Quoting hydrus:

Why is there a dark blue area in the Hebert box?
Quoting tiggeriffic:


may i, can i, have some of what you are having please...i wanna have that much fun... :P


Sorry, hon...no secret here, it's 5 hour energy, Dr. Pepper and room air...

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


here is full view



Thank You
Is there any type of weather pattern or feature currently causing these storms to strengthen so slowly (if at all?) Is it because its still relatively early in the season? Too much dry air? Or is the case different for each storm right now?

I just dont remember a season where every storm has so much trouble becoming organized... and once/if they do, strengthening.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
099

WHXX01 KWBC 121230

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1230 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 34.8N 66.8W 35.8N 64.0W 36.7N 61.9W 37.5N 60.2W

BAMD 34.8N 66.8W 37.1N 62.5W 39.7N 57.8W 42.2N 51.0W

BAMM 34.8N 66.8W 36.6N 63.3W 38.4N 60.0W 40.0N 56.1W

LBAR 34.8N 66.8W 37.1N 63.0W 40.4N 58.8W 43.8N 53.2W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 38.4N 58.6W 39.7N 54.0W 40.7N 49.8W 42.6N 45.3W

BAMD 43.4N 42.5W 44.5N 25.9W 46.7N 8.0W 48.6N 8.5E

BAMM 41.1N 51.8W 42.1N 43.7W 40.9N 38.3W 39.3N 37.2W

LBAR 46.2N 45.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 44KTS 34KTS 21KTS 0KTS

DSHP 44KTS 34KTS 21KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 34.8N LONCUR = 66.8W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 32.5N LONM12 = 70.6W DIRM12 = 53DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 30.4N LONM24 = 74.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





640

WHXX01 KWBC 121239

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1239 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.3N 30.3W 11.2N 31.8W 11.0N 33.8W 10.8N 36.1W

BAMD 11.3N 30.3W 11.4N 32.9W 11.4N 35.5W 11.5N 38.0W

BAMM 11.3N 30.3W 11.3N 32.5W 11.1N 34.8W 11.2N 37.2W

LBAR 11.3N 30.3W 11.7N 33.8W 12.0N 37.3W 12.4N 40.7W

SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.0N 38.7W 12.4N 44.1W 14.7N 50.8W 17.0N 58.9W

BAMD 11.6N 40.4W 12.4N 44.5W 14.1N 48.4W 16.7N 52.1W

BAMM 11.4N 39.6W 12.6N 44.3W 14.5N 49.5W 16.9N 55.0W

LBAR 12.8N 44.1W 13.1N 49.9W 12.1N 53.1W .0N .0W

SHIP 41KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS

DSHP 41KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 30.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 26.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 22.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





352

WHXX01 KWBC 121243

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1243 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.7N 54.7W 25.5N 56.6W 26.3N 58.7W 27.2N 60.5W

BAMD 24.7N 54.7W 25.1N 56.4W 25.9N 57.7W 26.7N 58.8W

BAMM 24.7N 54.7W 25.5N 56.5W 26.4N 58.2W 27.4N 59.4W

LBAR 24.7N 54.7W 25.1N 56.7W 26.1N 58.7W 26.9N 60.7W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 28.0N 62.0W 30.6N 64.5W 36.2N 63.0W 41.7N 53.0W

BAMD 27.4N 59.6W 29.1N 60.6W 31.1N 61.0W 34.6N 58.9W

BAMM 28.4N 60.2W 31.0N 60.4W 33.7N 58.1W 35.5N 54.3W

LBAR 28.1N 62.2W 31.7N 63.0W 37.1N 59.0W 41.8N 49.6W

SHIP 48KTS 55KTS 54KTS 51KTS

DSHP 48KTS 55KTS 54KTS 51KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 24.7N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 52.7W DIRM12 = 253DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 26.0N LONM24 = 50.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





429

WHXX01 KWBC 121245

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1245 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.9W 20.3N 52.6W 22.0N 55.9W

BAMD 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.5W 20.1N 51.5W 21.2N 54.1W

BAMM 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.6W 20.3N 51.9W 21.7N 54.8W

LBAR 17.8N 45.3W 19.5N 48.8W 21.2N 52.2W 22.9N 55.3W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 38KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 38KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.5N 58.8W 27.0N 63.4W 31.6N 65.2W 37.3N 60.5W

BAMD 22.2N 56.4W 24.0N 60.3W 25.7N 64.1W 27.9N 66.4W

BAMM 23.1N 57.4W 26.0N 61.5W 29.6N 64.0W 34.9N 62.0W

LBAR 24.5N 57.7W 28.1N 59.9W 31.5N 59.3W 32.8N 56.7W

SHIP 43KTS 48KTS 52KTS 61KTS

DSHP 43KTS 48KTS 52KTS 61KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 45.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 41.4W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 20KT

LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 37.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

Ridiculously long post!
1876. nigel20
The blog is currently on overdrive.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
mornin kman ya stealth mode is the worse mode come up on ya all of a sudden without warning out of the clear blue sky


Hiya KEEP, the Atl. is becoming a busy place. I dont like those low riders though but we should expect several this year, it being ENSO neutral.
Quoting Vincent4989:

Ridiculously long post!
You quoting the whole thing was the right thing to do...
Quoting Floodman:


Sorry, hon...no secret here, it's 5 hour energy, Dr. Pepper and room air...



im drinking mt dew...dont drink brown soda anymore... if i drank a 5 hour energy i would NEVER sleep lol, i barely sleep now, and room air is dif where you are lol
What I don't like about the tropics this year is that it is resembling 2005, where tropical waves don't develop until about 55W. As a result, you get a much greater threat to landfalls.
And to add to my last post.... has the fact that the "invests" have organized so slowly and not become strong quickly had any effect on what I view to be poor forecasting this season? Every storm that has formed, the path seems to be swinging wildly and not close to what actually happened (until the very last day).

Is this because the storms arent formed completely and strong enough to follow the patterns expected?
1882. hydrus
Quoting nigel20:
The blog is currently on overdrive.
And will stay that way for a while i think..
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Hard times...



Surprised that it held on as long as it did, thought it would look like that yesterday. Gradual development, it needs to consolidate more while working on the closed LLC. Was never as organized as it looked, most of the convection was ITCZ, what I think we're also seeing is beginning to lift out of the ITCZ.
enough of those long post please
7 AM EDT 12 August 2011 Update
The tropics continue to bubble today with 4 separate areas worth watching. A broad low area northeast of the Caribbean has "broke off" from the remnants of Emily and moved with the flow back south. This is very weak at the moment, but based on the time of year it has to be watched to see if something comes of it, it is not being tracked as an invest it this time. Of all the systems currently highlighted in the Atlantic, this may wind up being the most interesting and it should be watched closely to see if anything forms out of it, if it does it has a higher than usual chance to affect the Bahamas and possibly the coast. Thankfully it is the least likely to develop out of all the systems in the Hurricane Center's outlook.

92L remains weak and by far most likely to recurve before reaching any land.

93L, if it remains weak and in the shadow will likely continue westward, if it were develop and strengthen chances of it moving north and recurving are much greater. It too will have to be monitored, but it is still most likely to recurve at some point. (Although like yesterday, it's much too far out to be certain of it)

It is likely the latter half of August will be busy in the tropics, with a good number of storms, but few making it close enough to worry about. The most concerning systems will be the ones that form closer toward the US or off of old fronts or systems
Quoting atmoaggie:
You quoting the whole thing was the right thing to do...

lol funny mistake
1887. Matt74
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
If the 6Z GFS is correct then the GOM and Texas better closely monitor 93L!!!

Yea but there's no way that can happen unless this high moves out.
Quoting kmanislander:


This is a neutral ENSO year and that is a big concern for me.


I'll bet it is; lots of low shear environment and a more westerly steering schema, traditionally. Plenty of mid lattitude storms going long track; weren't Gilbert and Ivan both neutral ENSO storms? I think I'm remembering correctly, 1988 and 2004 were both neutral years...
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Is there any type of weather pattern or feature currently causing these storms to strengthen so slowly (if at all?) Is it because its still relatively early in the season? Too much dry air? Or is the case different for each storm right now?

I just dont remember a season where every storm has so much trouble becoming organized... and once/if they do, strengthening.


In the early part of the season SAL acts to inhibit development. Even after an outbreak subsides it takes several days for the dry air to be mixed away by the moisture of tropical waves heading West. It sometimes takes a few waves to moisten the atmosphere enough for those that follow to develop. We are seeing some of that happening now.

Past years have seen dry air plague storms all the way into September and beyond but this does not look like one of those years.
1890. SQUAWK
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
099

WHXX01 KWBC 121230

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1230 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 34.8N 66.8W 35.8N 64.0W 36.7N 61.9W 37.5N 60.2W

BAMD 34.8N 66.8W 37.1N 62.5W 39.7N 57.8W 42.2N 51.0W

BAMM 34.8N 66.8W 36.6N 63.3W 38.4N 60.0W 40.0N 56.1W

LBAR 34.8N 66.8W 37.1N 63.0W 40.4N 58.8W 43.8N 53.2W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 38.4N 58.6W 39.7N 54.0W 40.7N 49.8W 42.6N 45.3W

BAMD 43.4N 42.5W 44.5N 25.9W 46.7N 8.0W 48.6N 8.5E

BAMM 41.1N 51.8W 42.1N 43.7W 40.9N 38.3W 39.3N 37.2W

LBAR 46.2N 45.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 44KTS 34KTS 21KTS 0KTS

DSHP 44KTS 34KTS 21KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 34.8N LONCUR = 66.8W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 32.5N LONM12 = 70.6W DIRM12 = 53DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 30.4N LONM24 = 74.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





640

WHXX01 KWBC 121239

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1239 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.3N 30.3W 11.2N 31.8W 11.0N 33.8W 10.8N 36.1W

BAMD 11.3N 30.3W 11.4N 32.9W 11.4N 35.5W 11.5N 38.0W

BAMM 11.3N 30.3W 11.3N 32.5W 11.1N 34.8W 11.2N 37.2W

LBAR 11.3N 30.3W 11.7N 33.8W 12.0N 37.3W 12.4N 40.7W

SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.0N 38.7W 12.4N 44.1W 14.7N 50.8W 17.0N 58.9W

BAMD 11.6N 40.4W 12.4N 44.5W 14.1N 48.4W 16.7N 52.1W

BAMM 11.4N 39.6W 12.6N 44.3W 14.5N 49.5W 16.9N 55.0W

LBAR 12.8N 44.1W 13.1N 49.9W 12.1N 53.1W .0N .0W

SHIP 41KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS

DSHP 41KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 30.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 26.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 22.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





352

WHXX01 KWBC 121243

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1243 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.7N 54.7W 25.5N 56.6W 26.3N 58.7W 27.2N 60.5W

BAMD 24.7N 54.7W 25.1N 56.4W 25.9N 57.7W 26.7N 58.8W

BAMM 24.7N 54.7W 25.5N 56.5W 26.4N 58.2W 27.4N 59.4W

LBAR 24.7N 54.7W 25.1N 56.7W 26.1N 58.7W 26.9N 60.7W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 28.0N 62.0W 30.6N 64.5W 36.2N 63.0W 41.7N 53.0W

BAMD 27.4N 59.6W 29.1N 60.6W 31.1N 61.0W 34.6N 58.9W

BAMM 28.4N 60.2W 31.0N 60.4W 33.7N 58.1W 35.5N 54.3W

LBAR 28.1N 62.2W 31.7N 63.0W 37.1N 59.0W 41.8N 49.6W

SHIP 48KTS 55KTS 54KTS 51KTS

DSHP 48KTS 55KTS 54KTS 51KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 24.7N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 52.7W DIRM12 = 253DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 26.0N LONM24 = 50.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





429

WHXX01 KWBC 121245

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1245 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200 110814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.9W 20.3N 52.6W 22.0N 55.9W

BAMD 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.5W 20.1N 51.5W 21.2N 54.1W

BAMM 17.8N 45.3W 19.0N 48.6W 20.3N 51.9W 21.7N 54.8W

LBAR 17.8N 45.3W 19.5N 48.8W 21.2N 52.2W 22.9N 55.3W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 38KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 38KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110814 1200 110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.5N 58.8W 27.0N 63.4W 31.6N 65.2W 37.3N 60.5W

BAMD 22.2N 56.4W 24.0N 60.3W 25.7N 64.1W 27.9N 66.4W

BAMM 23.1N 57.4W 26.0N 61.5W 29.6N 64.0W 34.9N 62.0W

LBAR 24.5N 57.7W 28.1N 59.9W 31.5N 59.3W 32.8N 56.7W

SHIP 43KTS 48KTS 52KTS 61KTS

DSHP 43KTS 48KTS 52KTS 61KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 45.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 41.4W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 20KT

LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 37.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


What does all this mean?
Invests 94L and 95L have better vorticity than invests 92L and 93L. They might get classified before the two tropical waves in my opinion.

Link
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Is there any type of weather pattern or feature currently causing these storms to strengthen so slowly (if at all?) Is it because its still relatively early in the season? Too much dry air? Or is the case different for each storm right now?

I just dont remember a season where every storm has so much trouble becoming organized... and once/if they do, strengthening.


I can name several, last year and 2007 to name examples.
Quoting Floodman:


I'll bet it is; lots of low shear environment and a more westerly steering schema, traditionally. Plenty of mid lattitude storms going long track; weren't Gilbert and Ivan both neutral ENSO storms? I think I'm remembering correctly, 1988 and 2004 were both neutral years...


Not to mention 2005
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
What I don't like about the tropics this year is that it is resembling 2005, where tropical waves don't develop until about 55W. As a result, you get a much greater threat to landfalls.


Yep, tropical waves that develop at 55W and 20 or 25N are serious threats to the coast.
1895. nigel20
What if we had two or three hurricanes at the same time, then there would be like a 100 post per minute
1897. hydrus
Hi All, tropics finally picking up as the waves off africa start to pile up.  IMO I believe the CONUS will be affected at some point this year, because i believe in the law of averages.  As long as well all are prepared there is nothing to worry about, you can replace property, but not life.
Quoting SQUAWK:


What does all this mean?
MODEL GUIDANCE MESSAGE FOR EACH INVEST WITH EXPECTED DEV AND CURRENT LOC AND CONDITIONS

READ IT
XX/INV/95L
MARK
34N/66W


XX/INV/94L
MARK
25N/55W


XX/INV/93L
MARK
11.35N/30.30W


XX/INV/92L
MARK
18.85N/45.89W




Quoting tiggeriffic:


im drinking mt dew...dont drink brown soda anymore... if i drank a 5 hour energy i would NEVER sleep lol, i barely sleep now, and room air is dif where you are lol


Hmmm...hallucinogenic air? That might explain Rick Perry
Maybe I am just too impatient! Just seems like these CV waves are trying to form painfully slow.... which in turn makes forecasting their paths basically impossible. I guess its still August, and my boredem makes things seem to happen slower than they really are haha
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Invests 94L and 95L have better vorticity than invests 92L and 93L. They might get classified before the two tropical waves in my opinion.

Link

Doubt it, because these two blobs have a problem. 95L has only a limited time before merging, and 94L has an appearance of a sheared storm.
NEW BLOG!
Quoting Buhdog:
I call ants in the house and some crawfish crawling to higher ground.

Link


I will let you know what the chickens and the rabbitts are doing later.
Quoting kmanislander:


Not to mention 2005


Yessir, that would be correct
I thought 2004 was an el nino year?
Quoting Floodman:


Two TUTTs and failed recurve


I'm going all in with the Texas Ridge. So far, that has been the winning hand bet on anything in the GOM. The only thing that had a chance this year just evaporated when it was time to show your hand.
Who broke the satelite images?