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Two 500-year floods in 15 years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:48 PM GMT on June 19, 2008

The U.S. Geological Survey has preliminary data showing that this month's floods on four of Iowa's rivers--the Cedar, Iowa, Shell Rock, and Wapsipinicon--were 500-year floods. Back in 1993, many rivers in the Midwest also experienced 500-year floods, so the region has endured two 500-year floods in the past 15 years. How can this be? First of all a definition--a 500-year flood is an event that has only a 0.2% chance of occurring in a given year, based on available river flow data. Of course, reliable data only goes back a century at most, so designation of a 500-year flood event is somewhat subjective. Still, it seems rather improbable that two such huge floods should occur within such a short time span, raising the question of whether the floods were, in part, human-caused.

In a provocative story in the Washington Post today, it was pointed out that part of the flooding is due to the draining of wetlands for farming purposes. As nature's natural buffers against flooding are drained and filled to provide room for more farmland, run-off and flooding are bound to increase. Furthermore, as more levees are built to protect more valuable farmland and new developments, flood waters are pushed out of the former areas they were allowed to spread out in and forced into river channels behind the new levees. Even higher levees must then be constructed to hold back the increased volume of water they are asked to contain.

Climate change contributing to flooding?
The heaviest types of rains--those likely to cause flooding--have increased in recent years (see my February blog, "The future of flooding", for more detail). According to the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 report, "The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas". Indeed, global warming theory has long predicted an increase in heavy precipitation events. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970.

Over the U.S., where we have very good precipitation records, annual average precipitation has increased 7% over the past century (Groisman et al., 2004). The same study also found a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events over the U.S. in the past century. Kunkel et al. (2003) also found an increase in heavy precipitation events over the U.S. in recent decades, but noted that heavy precipitation events were nearly as frequent at the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century, though the data is not as reliable back then. Thus, climate change is likely partly to blame for increased flooding in the U.S., although we cannot rule out long-term natural variations in precipitation.


Figure 1. Forecast change in precipitation and runoff for the period 2080 to 2099 compared to 1980 to 1999. The forecasts come from the A1B scenario from multiple climate models used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 report.

The forecast
According to a multi-model consensus of the climate models run for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 report, precipitation and river runoff for the Mississippi River drainage basin are expected to increase only slightly by the end of this century (Figure 1). However, more of this rain is expected to fall in heavy precipitation events, the ones most likely to cause flooding. As a result, the U.S. needs to prepare for an increase in the number and severity of 100-year and 500-year flooding events in the coming century.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropics. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Damn! Nice catch Tampa. I will be watching this area with great interest. It will be very interesting to see the next QuikSCAT image. If anything, its moving towards the ENE, not NNE. But, as usual, persistence is key.
Tampa, if you keep saying something will develop, it eventually will! LOL

You have proven that, for about the last 5 days! :D

It is common for multiple "swirls" to develop along an existing trough..... still not quite ready to buy any tropical development in the Gulf with this mess.....

there is a decent pressure drop there though......

too bad we will soon loose visible.....

GFS forecasts favorable shear in the GOM in about 18 hours. Lets see if this spin can hold until then.
Thanks CCHS i was going fishing tomorro in the GOM, but i just changed plans.......lol
TS Tampa! LOL

1504...

LOL....
Im calling it Tampas Low!!

LMAO,,,,
And they say wishcasting doesn't work! LOL

Tampa has proved em wrong! :D
1509. thelmores 8:13 PM EDT on June 22, 2008
And they say wishcasting doesn't work! LOL

Tampa has proved em wrong! :D


Wishcasting......???
updated buoy plot.........



pressures high, winds low...... guess we'll see if anything comes about in this area.... the shear seems to be the inhibiting factor, but if cchs is right..... who knows.... stranger things have happened!
if you do an infared loop you can see it is starting to wrap some convection.
oh come on Tampa, don't make me go back into the blog and quote you for the last 3-4 days! LOL

Lighten up friend, no offense meant! ;)
I don't think it is completely to the surface yet......but it could get there.
Tampa, right again..... Dmax may get interesting! LOL

1513. thelmores 8:19 PM EDT on June 22, 2008

I have only pointed out areas that had the potential for develpment......i stated at the end of this trough as one........i also pointed out the Low pressure that has been consistent near South America in the SW Carribean.......not wishcasting just stating observations...that is not wishcasting when stating observations.
Some great shots. It even shows on the IR imagery. Both images are courtesy of Penn States Satellite page.

jp, don't you remember a storm last year in a similar location "did" for a TS.....

Likely? no..... possible? Certainly!
ok Tampa..... sorry if I offended you, just trying to have a little fun....
Great destruction and devastation will befall the coastlines soon.
Showing favorable shear within 12 hours.

JP..... TS Barry from last year......

Posted by: JeffMasters "The hurricane season of 2007 officially began today, and we officially have our second surprising named storm of the season--Tropical Storm Barry. Barry is highly unusual in that it developed in the presence of strong wind shear--about 20-40 knots. I've never seen a tropical storm form under more than about 25 knots of wind shear."

So it can happen....... still not likely though!
Well, the Gulf is one of two favored areas for development at this time of year. I'm not seriously expecting any development from this, but if SOMEthing's going to pop, I suppose it could do so there.

Seems like "ghost of Alma-Arthur" if it did . . .
1516. thelmores 8:23 PM EDT on June 22, 2008

You are correct......DMax will be very interesting....every Satel. update is showing a better appearance.
could be some remains of Karen as well! LOL
What? Cat 5 headed to NOLA? OMG! ;P
More like a Cat .5! LOL
Gotta go for now...gotta 2 hour drive to brothers house....going fishing......lol
1530. Dakster
MLC,

LMAO... I thought told you not to feed the trolls...
Whatever it is, it is heading straight for buoy 42055... be interesting to see the next couple observations.
Hey, TS! Glad you're eyeballing everything. Someone has to keep a faithful watch for a sneeker. It's coming soon enough!



No vorticity to speak of, up until the 500mb level and up.
have a good one Tampa..... catch some big fish, and get some pics for us! :)
Catch a bunch, TS! Man, that sure sounds good! Enjoy!
1527. moonlightcowboy 8:39 PM AST on June 22, 2008

LOL...
Stormdude, what's that out at 8-10n, 30-33w? Anything happening way out there?
JP..... are you ever wrong? LOL

seriously, I agree with your observations, I just like giving you crap! LOL

NOBODY...... myself included, saw Barry coming.... sort of like the current situation.....

but thats why we ae here right? I mean if it was an absolute science, where would the fun be! ;)
1539. surfmom
not to be rude, but there were a handful of surfers that called Barry
what did they "call Barry?"
1542. surfmom
1518 - yes cchs GREAT shots
agreed JP.... in the "soup" we have in the gulf, not uncommon to have a swirl or two....

and you know better than watching the NAM for genesis! LOL lucky guess by the NAM! :D

what caused the small anticyclone over Barry last year.... was it just pure chance? and if the shear relaxes as some have indicated, could it happen again?

possible I guess, but chances are pretty low.... right??
MLC...nothing worth mentioning in the CATL at this time, that's ITCZ convection around 8-10N, 30-35W. There's a Twave around 45W, but strong wind shear is affecting it
1545. surfmom
Wish I could stay up late and play...but up b/4 the roosters tomorrow.
Got rained out of work on Saturday, so I have quite a bit of catch up in the barn, with all the rain "fungus amongus" will be the theme --keeping SWFL horses free of it is a full time job, but it's better then them dealing with heat stress when there is not rain.

Happy to say that seeding was done on Friday & the rain goddess heard my prayers - trying out Argentine Bahia - (per the boss) it will be interesting to see how well it does.

Take care all and perhaps we will have a spinner to look at tomorrow!
night surfmom....
1544. Thanks, stormdude! So, all is relatively quiet in the tropics! Aaaahh, the quiet before the storms. But, whoa, when Neptune releases his fury, soon! UGH!
well, I'm out too..... see if I can get a little fraggin done before bed time.....

I do this we have conjured up a "glimpse" of the coming season today..... with the azores high, increased temps, and lower than average shear..... sounds like a bad combination to me.....
1551. hahaguy
Agreed thelmores
1550

what.... the NAM???
pressures seems to have leveled off..... if they go down from here..... IR certainly doesn't look too impressive.......

If accuweather is right, it could be very windy around my area on Tuesday. Forecast for my area below:

Tuesday, Jun 24 Winds gusting past 80 kph in the morning; humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine. Winds from the NE at 45 km/h.
I really think that mid-July is the first period where there is a serious formation threat. That's the point when everything is likely to come together - SSTs, MJO, ITCZ, low shear, high location vs. SAL coverage - so far we haven't really had all these ingredients in sync.
1557. Drakoen
I'm not expecting any development for at least another week. Conditions remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development. A persistent tropical upper tropospheric trough with the axis extending down into the eastern Caribbean has spawned a big upper level low north of the Lesser Antilles. A shortwave trough lies in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Strong upper level winds have prevailed with these features with subsidence over the Central Caribbean.

The GFS shows an upper level high coming into to play in the Caribbean a week from now which may allow for something to form as the upward motion of the MJO moves into the region as shown by the EWP and GFS. Still none of the long range computer models predict tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean at that time frame.
So, it does appear (according to the NWS forecast discussion) that Tampa and the surrounding West Coast of Fl may be awakened early tomorrow morning by yet another round of thunderstorms. This could potentially add another 1-1.5" on top of the FIVE that I have received in the past week.
OK FL, I know yall need the rain.. but so do we. Can we all share? ;)
Drak...I appreciate your response to my request for rain in the Lowcountry...but...ah...you can stop now...gettin a bit soggy....
1561. pottery
Greetings. It all looks very quiet and civilised here tonight.
Blobs in the GOM. Blobs in the Atl.
But nothing threatening apparently.
Forecast for the southern Islands calling for rains and strong squalls from tomorrow through Wednesday.
Well bring it on I say.
06/22/2008 0130 PM

2 miles E of Galax, Carroll County.

Hail e0.88 inch, reported by public.


Hail 4 to 6 inches deep in some areas.





06/22/2008 0134 PM

10 miles E of Hillsville, Carroll County.

Hail e0.75 inch, reported by trained spotter.






06/22/2008 0125 PM

Galax, City of Galax County.

Hail e0.88 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Hail covering the ground.





06/22/2008 1250 PM

Byllesby, Carroll County.

Hail e0.88 inch, reported by trained spotter.


I live 2counties away from V.A. Glad I didnt see 6inches cover the ground.I have been to Galax which is about 3counties away from here.

Flash flood warnings were issued from the mountains of N.C to the coast.(individaul counties)Wilmington,N.C reported knee deep water in city locations.Lots of areas reported hail and flooding.

I emailed the N.C Severe Weather Expert about a picture I had of what looked like a funnel.He told me it looked like a shelf cloud or a scud.

More Severe weather 4 Monday is expected.
1563. pottery
NorthX That sounds pretty dread
NorthxCakalaky,
Didn't your name used to not have the x or am I crazy?
I agree with JP, nothing will form out of our BOC low and this will be a more tranquil year than expected...In my opinion this will be a 2006 type year.

Oh, and STORMTOP shut up...that post was totally un called for.
1568. Drakoen
Where's the evidence that supports this year will be "tranquil"?

2004's first storm didn't form until July 31st and 2005's second storm didn't form until June 28th.
1569. pottery
I hear you Thrilla.
I dont believe you though........
Actually, given the fact that we are coming out of a la nina into a neutral phase of ENSO, it's more likely we'll have a LATE start rather than an early one . . .
1571. Drakoen
1570. BahaHurican 3:33 AM GMT on June 23, 2008
Actually, given the fact that we are coming out of a la nina into a neutral phase of ENSO, it's more likely we'll have a LATE start rather than an early one . . .


We already started. We just haven't continued.
what is this type of cloud called??

1573. pottery
Its an Inquiring Cloud I think.
1571. Drakoen 11:34 PM EDT on June 22, 2008

We already started. We just haven't continued.


Agreed. I was thinking more about active part of season.
you sure are pessimist tonight.. pott
1576. pottery
Its an Inquiring Cloud I think.

These clouds stick to the sky
Like a floating question why,
They linger there to die,
They dont know where ther're going
And my friend neither do I.........

Paul Simon



Houst,

I saw an x rather than a cloud.
1578. pottery
LOL Houston. But the cloud image did not show. Just a blue questionmark. Am I alone in this ?
The tropics are seldom tranquil or quiet. Just
pick any year and you'll see storms that
formed, even dangerous ones in years that
didn't produce many storms.

Just because a storm doesn't hit the CONUS,
doesn't make a tranquil season. Ask the folks
in Nicaragua last year, they'll say it wasn't
tranquil.

But, there's no evidence that leans towards a
slower season either. Conditions are and
forecast to be favorable with two or three
meteorological entities predicting an above
active season.

It only takes one to destroy life and property.


...from NOAA Watch.
Good night all! Unless something develops, I will not be here for a couple days. I will be focusing on getting everything on my website updated since it has not been updated for quite some time. If anyone has any questions or comments for me, just message me. I will check my messages.
Good night, all!
Have a good sleep, cchs and Baha! A GR8 week, too!
Same 2 u, MLC.
1585. Drakoen
I don't think that meter is accurate MLC...
1586. pottery
Some decent convection building to the south/east of me, off Guyana.
Also, a flare up in the Trop. Atl right now looking good. At about 10n 40w
1585. Look again, Drakoen. I updated it, sorry! We're near neutral conditions, now.
1588. Drakoen
1587. moonlightcowboy 3:57 AM GMT on June 23, 2008
1585. Look again, Drakoen. I updated it, sorry!


Yea that looks better.
1590. Drakoen
The CFS isn't that excited about El Nino breaking out with .5 being the highest it goes keeping it within the neutral range. This months dynamical and statistical models are largely in favor of ENSO neutral conditions.
Tranquil? I don't think so.
I'm out, gang! Have a good sleep, Pottery, Drak and all.
Good evening / morning all... been working all weekend, anything of interest???????
Is there anybody out there?
1597. hahaguy
ya i'm here lol
Americans are xenophobics? Maybe that could explain why a nation with so much educational resourses, only 10 percent of their population or less speak only one language. While in the rest of the world the percent is much higher with less resourses. In Cuba for example a country that they critizice so much, 75 percent or more of the population speak two or more languages.
Americans are xenophobics? Maybe that could explain why a nation with so much educational resourses, only 10 percent of their population or less speak only one language. While in the rest of the world the percent is much higher with less resourses. In Cuba for example a country that they critizice so much, 75 percent or more of the population speak two or more languages.

HurakanPR - I have no need to speak more than 1 language. I can understand everybody that I need to
Nothing in the tropics. Not suprised really, but by the end of June, I still expect 1-2 more named storms... One storm in the CATL; one in the Caribbean/GOM. I know it sounds crazy, but this has been my prediction from the beginning, and I'm sticking with it.

For July, I expect 2-3 named storms... I also wouldn't be suprised to see some Dennis/Emily/Bertha scenarios either...
Just my opinion.
If another Dennis, I hope it doesen't follow the same track. It was small, but it tore this town apart
1601. PanhandleChuck 4:54 AM GMT on June 23, 2008
If another Dennis, I hope it doesen't follow the same track. It was small, but it tore this town apart


Well, that was the 2005 season, and all bets were off during that season. In just July, typically a quiet month, they had two long tracked major hurricanes. And, yeah, Dennis was a bad hurricane damage wise. Similar to Wilma which also did incredible damage where I live.
1567. SpaceThrilla1207 3:22 AM GMT on June 23, 2008 Hide this comment.
I agree with JP, nothing will form out of our BOC low and this will be a more tranquil year than expected...In my opinion this will be a 2006 type year.

Oh, and STORMTOP shut up...that post was totally un called for.


Space, were do you get your Data from? How So? You realize its only June and we already have had Arthur? Do you have any Charts and Graphs to indicate a Slow Season? Do you know that it only takes one? If your going to consider tranquill seasons, that would place 1992 under that.. With Hurricane Andrew. On this blog its best not to say opinions on the whole season without Data and info. If you do, I'd gladly love to see it.
Space, were do you get your Data from? How So? You realize its only June and we already have had Arthur? Do you have any Charts and Graphs to indicate a Slow Season? Do you know that it only takes one? If your going to consider tranquill seasons, that would place 1992 under that.. With Hurricane Andrew. On this blog its best not to say opinions on the whole season without Data and info. If you do, I'd gladly love to see it.

Agree completely.
What about the flood of 1927? Do we have three 500 year floods in 80 years? I remember in Oregon, there was a 500 year flood. 30 years later there was a worse one. After checking archives of the settlers, it turned out there was a flood about as bad in 1899.

Maybe these extreme events are more common than people realize.
Continuing to track a classic African Easterly Wave



1607. msphar
456 - until it drops off the land it tough to tell if it will transition to a wave over water.
I saw that, 456, and posted a shot at 1593. That could be the one that sneeks in on us. The other conditions seem to be coming together.
N.C Flood report

06/22/2008 1034 PM

Charlotte, Mecklenburg County.

Flash flood, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Car floating in wal-Mart parking lot on wilkson Blvd





06/22/2008 1030 PM

Charlotte, Mecklenburg County.

Flash flood, reported by Emergency Mngr.


North Tryon and 16th street flooded


1567. SpaceThrilla1207 3:22 AM GMT on June 23, 2008 Hide this comment.
I agree with JP, nothing will form out of our BOC low and this will be a more tranquil year than expected...In my opinion this will be a 2006 type year.


wow its june if it was quiet like this in august then i would be concerned but its not august. even 2005 had 2 and 2004 had none! you should not even go on this site if you are going to say such an ill-logical comment.You need to think before you comment.
I live in Trinidad and there is a small Philipino population here, just about a few hundred. I join them in extending my deepest sympathies to all affected by the typhoon last week.Let us all remember to respect life regardless of what nationality...
Discussion from the Tallahassee NWS...


.LONG TERM...(WED NIGHT THROUGH MON.)
THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE
TROPICS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND WAS
NEAR 55-60W LONGITUDE AT AROUND 05Z. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO BRING
THIS WAVE WWD TO THE NWRN CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF BY WED NIGHT WITH
MOISTURE MOVING NWD UP THE FL PENINSULA. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM FRI INTO SAT AS IT ROUNDS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
1598. HurakanPR

SOME U.S. Americans are xenophobic. Probably about the same % as any other country. Face it we are not that special.

Our lack of multiple language skills has more to do with the fact that the country occupies the better part of a continent. Most of us get to practice using another language only on rare occasions. If you are fluent in any languages other than Spanish and English I will be surprised. I actively attempted to learn Spanish. When I lived in the PR section of NYC I had daily occasion to at least listen to Spanish. I have rare need to use any Spanish in my current daily life. When it is it is with folks from Mexico and Texas. They tend to denigrate my abilities as Puerto Rican Spanglish. LOL

Prejudice is not the sole purview of any one group of people.

(how's that for a liberal rant?)

"I'm not prejudiced. I hate everyone equally." W.C. Fields
Is that the leftovers of the tropical wave we followed just south of Jamaica? Look for a blowup in the western Carib. Hope everyone has a buena dia.
TampaSpin said...
Gang we have a LLC developing in the BOC at 21N 94.5W.....Get ready it is moving NNE.


Poof. Next!

Notice the ITCZ in the CAR for the first time this season. This is the big shift week, if I remember correctly - by next Monday the ITCZ should be mostly at / above 10N . . . .
From this morning's 8:05 TWD:

ATLANTIC...

THE MOST PROMINENT UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE IS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N14W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS THE W ALONG
26N32W 23N44W 22N60W THEN SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER HISPANIOLA.
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN FROM AFRICA INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
32N48W.

This is actually a pretty interesting set-up for this time of year.
Morning StormW.
BTW, anybody looked at Fengshen's forecast track / strength overnight? I notice on the Navy site it's being forecast to move even further west than originally expected. Seems to be a trend with that storm. They don't expect it to strengthen back to hurricane status, but that could change.
George Carlin Died last night im going to miss his shows.

Recent Fengshen imagery.



Doesn't look like much, prolly due to shear from that front that's approaching over China. I suppose that's what's going to take it off to the east again . . .
Good Morning....Nice and rainy for the last 24 hours in North Florida and very quiet along the Gulf/SE coast in spite of the huge influx of moisture (training effect from the huge low over the Great Lakes)....Looking like June will remain quiet (and starting to wonder if we will "skip" the June/July climatology closer to home and start looking at CV storms a little earlier than usual (mid-July)...mmmmmmm..Just pondering.......
1607. msphar 2:31 AM AST on June 23, 2008
456 - until it drops off the land it tough to tell if it will transition to a wave over water.


I dont track tropical waves for development or I wudnt be looking at a wave over Sudan.
i am back after two hernia repair operations, last tuesday. well the tropics looking extemely quiet and it appears it will be so for sometime i will take the time off for more recuperation until the season ramps up between the 1st and 2nd week of july. i will keep checking just in case something were to pop up
1627. CatV
Newby here: CATV. Good morning! I am in the U.S. Navy, 4 years, shipping out in about 30 days for advanced meteorology training.
1624. weathermanwannabe

Good Morning all! Yes the panhandle received some much needed rain this weekend. Still need more in my area. The dry ground soaked up every bit of rain like a sponge, no ponding anywhere to suggest the ground was saturated. Pretty quiet in the tropics.
CatV, welcome aboard! Looking forward to an interesting season.
1630. NEwxguy
Tropics have arrived in New England,high humidity,thunderstorms popping up all over the place.
1631. Patrap
ReliefWEB Link


Philippines: Typhoon Fengshen (as of 23 Jun 2008) - Situation Map
Philippines Situation Map

* Date: 23 Jun 2008
* Type: Natural Disaster
PDF Link

Source: Deutsche Presse Agentur (DPA)

Date: 23 Jun 2008
ReliefWeb

Relief efforts intensify as Typhoon Fengshen leaves Philippines


Manila_(dpa) _ Rescue and relief efforts intensified on Monday in the the aftermath of Typhoon Fengshen, which caused massive destruction in a large part of the Philippines and left at least 186 people dead and hundreds missing.

The weather bureau said Fengshen, with maximum sustained winds of 110 kilometres per hour and gusts of up to 140 kilometres per hour, was spotted Monday at sea 300 kilometres north-west of the northen city of Dagupan.

Fengshen, which was heading towards the general direction of Taiwan, will stay within the Philippine area of responsibility until Tuesday, the agency added.

Rescuers and relief workers continued to battle high floodwaters in several towns of Iloilo province, 465 kilometres south of Manila, where at least 101 people have been killed.

Iloilo Governor Neil Tupas said the death toll was expected to rise as dozens more remained missing.

Tupas said Fengshen was the worst typhoon to hit the city in more than three decades. He appealed for rubberboats to allow rescuers to penetrate hard-to-reach areas.

The southern region of Mindanao, which was first hit by the typhoon, suffered 21 fatalities. Nine were killed in Antique province, four in the central province of Capiz, two each in the provinces of Romblon, Batangas, Bulacan, Zambales, Quezon, Negros Occidental and Leyte.

The provinces Marinduque and Mindoro Oriental each reported one fatality.

The death toll includes 35 confirmed killed in the sinking of a passenger ferry carrying 849 people aboard off Sibuyan Island, 300 kilometres south of Manila, on Saturday. Thirty-eight survivors have been found, but more than 770 are still unaccounted for.

The United States was to dispatch a rescue vessel to help in the search for survivors from the sunken ferry.

The National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) said Fengshen's damage to infrastructure and agriculture were initially estimated to cost 1 billion pesos (22.52 million dollars).

It noted that several areas throughout the country have remained unreachable due to high floodwaters and landslides, while electricity and communication were also still down in some areas.

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, who left Manila on Saturday for a 10-day visit in the United States, has scolded senior officials during a video teleconference about the high death toll.

Early Monday, Arroyo blasted the head of the NDCC for failing to come up with a consolidated report on the damage caused by Fengshen. On Sunday, she reprimanded the Coast Guard's head for allowing the Princess of the Stars to sail despite a tyhoon warning. dpa jg gl pw


Copyright (c) dpa Deutsche Presse-Agentur GmbH
1567.

Thrilla, do you have data to back up this statement?
1614. ShenValleyFlyFish

Shen, you old softy! I thought you had a little tilt to the left...I agree; Xenophobia and racism are not the sole purview of Americans...humans are equal opportunity haters...
Welcome to the party, CATV!
1626. stoormfury

You know, Stoorm, you shouldn't be picking up those trucks all by yourself...

All kidding aside, hope you're doing better
its a quiet party alright.
Am I the only one here, or am I on far more "Ignore" lists than I thouhgt?
I'm around Flood - good morning! Just watching what's going on this morning...
1631. Patrap 9:14 AM EDT on June 23, 2008

The Philipino president is remarkably unimpressive as a leader right now. She is "blasting everybody out", but she is also not putting herself in the place needed to ensure that things are done properly. If this is her normal management style, it's not surprising things are not being well handled.
has the big H set up shop yet?
MOrning JP & Baha!
JP,
It is going to be a bright sunshiny day in Orlando hopefully no storms. Remember no spinning.
1647. NEwxguy
Flood,can't imagine anyone putting you on ignore,the most sane person here.
Good morning jp, mel, StormW, sport, Taz and Baha and everyone else, lurkers and other wise! Taz, where would one get a cool avatar such as yours?
New Blog
New Blog up
1652. guygee
In keeping with this blog's subject:

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Report, Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3,

The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity

"The U.S. Climate Change Science Program report "Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3 (SAP 4.3): The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States" integrates the Federal research efforts of 13 agencies on climate and global change.

The report has 38 authors from the universities, national laboratories, non-governmental organizations, and Federal service. SAP 4.3 has undergone expert peer review by 14 scientists through a Federal Advisory Committee formed by the USDA, and includes over 1,000 references. USDA was the lead agency for this report as part of its commitment to CCSP.

The report focuses on the next 25 to 50 years, and finds that climate change is already affecting U.S. water resources, agriculture, land resources, and biodiversity, and will continue to do so."

"USDA is using the report's findings in the development of a new Strategic Plan for Climate Change research. The Forest Service is integrating climate change into National Forest Service Management Plans and is providing guidance to Forest Managers on how to respond and adapt to climate change. The Natural Resources Conservation Service and Farm Services Agency are encouraging actions to reduce GHG emissions and increase carbon sequestration through conservation programs. USDA's Risk Management Agency has prepared tools to manage drought risks, and is conducting an assessment of the risks of climate change on the crop insurance program. USDA is also providing guidance to landowners to enable them to estimate their greenhouse gas footprints.(Last Modified: 05/27/2008)"

U.S. Climate Change Science Program Alternate Download Site

Some key Excerpts on the likely regional effects of Global Warming from the Executive Summary:

Section 2 OVERARCHING CONCLUSIONS

Climate changes, temperature increases, increasing CO2 levels, and altered patterns of precipitation are already affecting U.S. water resources, agriculture, land resources, and biodiversity (very likely).
The literature reviewed for this assessment documents many examples of changes in these resources that are the direct result of variability and changes in the climate system, even after accounting for other factors. The number and frequency of forest fires and insect outbreaks are increasing in the interior West, the Southwest, and Alaska. Precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperatures are increasing in most of the continental United States. The western United States is experiencing reduced snowpack and earlier peaks in spring runoff. The growth of many crops and weeds is being stimulated. Migration of plant and animal species is changing the composition and structure of arid, polar, aquatic, coastal, and other ecosystems.

Climate change will continue to have significant effects on these resources over the next few decades and beyond (very likely).
Warming is very likely to continue in the United States during the next 25 to 50 years, regardless of reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, due to emissions that have already occurred. U.S. ecosystems and natural resources are already being affected by climate system changes and variability. It is very likely that the magnitude and frequency of ecosystem changes will continue to increase during this period, and it is possible that they will accelerate. As temperature rises,crops will increasingly experience temperatures above the optimum for their reproductive development, and animal production of meat or dairy products will be impacted by temperature extremes. Management of Western reservoir systems is very likely to become more challenging as runoff patterns continue to change. Arid areas are very likely to experience increases erosion and fire risk. In arid ecosystems that have not coevolved with a fire cycle, the probability of loss of iconic, charismatic megaflora such as Saguaro cacti and Joshua trees will greatly increase.

Many other stresses and disturbances are also affecting these resources (very likely).
For many of the changes documented in this assessment, there are multiple environmental drivers - land use change, nitrogen cycle changes, point and nonpoint source pollution, wildfires, invasive species - that are also changing. Atmospheric deposition of biologically available nitrogen compounds continues to be an important issue, along with persistent ozone pollution in many parts of the country. It is very likely that these additional atmospheric effects cause biological and ecological changes that interact with changes in the physical climate system. In addition, land cover and land use patterns are changing, e.g., the increasing fragmentation of U.S. forests as exurban development spreads to previously undeveloped areas, further raising fire risk and compounding the effects of summer drought, pests, and warmer winters. There are several dramatic examples of extensive spread of invasive species throughout rangeland and
semiarid ecosystems in western states, and indeed throughout the United States. It is likely that the spread of these invasive species, which often change ecosystem processes, will exacerbate the risks from climate change alone. For example, in some cases invasive species increase fire risk and decrease forage quality.
[...]
LMAO, GUYGEE, I guess you believe all this global warming crap too. Wow, I would have to believe your position 35 years ago was exactly opposite ( If you were still alive),since most scientist felt we were heading for a new ice age. "The number and frequency of forest fires and insect outbreaks are increasing in the interior West, the Southwest, and Alaska. Precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperatures are increasing in most of the continental United States. The western United States is experiencing reduced snowpack and earlier peaks in spring runoff. The growth of many crops and weeds is being stimulated. Migration of plant and animal species is changing the composition and structure of arid, polar, aquatic, coastal, and other ecosystems". LMAO again, guess what you morons the planet changes, and a few hundred million years ago North America didn’t would have been unrecognizable due to continental shift. Oh ya, Mount Everest grows about 5mm a year, this is directly due to all the environmentalists blowing hot air into the planet causing the mountains to grow to the point of a cataclysmic explosion one day.

dammit! I hate a mis-type correction North America wouldn’t have looked as it does today is what I was trying to say.