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Twisters Give Nation a Pass in 2015: Lowest Death Toll on Record?

By: Bob Henson 6:25 PM GMT on December 04, 2015

Amid all the genuinely awful news making the rounds in recent days, here is one bright spot: the year 2015 may end up with the lowest number of U.S. tornado fatalities in at least 141 years. As of December 2, preliminary numbers from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center show only 10 tornado-related deaths nationwide. If this number holds through the end of the year, it will beat the 12 deaths reported in 1910 to become the lowest annual total on record. NOAA/SPC keeps tabs on tornado statistics, including fatalities, back to 1950. For earlier periods, veteran researcher Thomas Grazulis (author of the definitive volume “Significant Tornadoes 1680-1991”) has combed through newspapers and other archives to come up with the best existing data on tornado occurrence and fatalities as far back as 1875. If anything, the Grazulis numbers may be on the low side, which gives added confidence that the nation has indeed seen a remarkably safe year tornado-wise in 2015. The year is not done, though: 5 of the last 10 Decembers produced at least one tornado fatality, with the highest total of that period being 9 in December 2010.


Figure 1. Tornado deaths are far below the levels observed prior to the advent of the National Weather Service watch/warning system in the 1950s, although the catastrophic tornadoes of 2011 produced the biggest spike in fatalities in more than 80 years. Data provided courtesy Harold Brooks, NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory; data sources are NWS (1950 – 2015) and Thomas Grazulis (1875 – 1949).


Figure 2. The EF4 tornado that plowed across northern Illinois just west of Chicago on April 9, 2015, photographed near Stillman Valley, Illinois. Image credit: wunderphotographer StormyPleasures (Charles Russell).


Figure 3. Wreckage lies along Illinois State Highway 64 near Rochelle, Illinois, on April 10, 2015, after an EF4 tornado struck the previous night. Image credit: Jon Durr/Getty Images)

Northwest flow cuts down on strength, frequency of tornadoes
Part of the story this year is sheer good luck. The strongest tornado of 2015 so far occurred on April 9: a violent EF4 twister that tracked over 30 miles of northern Illinois just west of Chicago. Just a small shift in that tornado’s track could have produced far more havoc. And the unseasonably late tornadic swarm of November 16 over the southern Great Plains produced three large EF3 tornadoes but comparatively little damage. Apart from these two outbreaks, the year’s crop of tornadoes was generally on the weak and short-lived side. A single outbreak can make an otherwise quiet year devastating, but in general, “a low number of tornadoes correlates to a low number of tornado deaths,” noted Greg Carbin, warning coordination meteorologist at NOAA/SPC, in an email.

After the horrific tornado season of 2011 (with 553 fatalities, the nation’s deadliest since 1925), the U.S. has seen four consecutive years with below-average activity, if we count 2015 in advance. For this quietude, we can thank the same predominant upper-level pattern that’s stoked four years of intense drought in California and shunted a large fraction of hurricanes away from the East Coast. “The stagnant large-scale pattern of generally northwest flow that has dominated central North America for the past few years has certainly played some role in suppressing conditions more supportive of tornado outbreaks,” Carbin said. “Whether this shift to more tranquil conditions is part of some longer-term oscillation, a result of climate change dynamics, or both, or just a random occurrence, is hard to say.”



Figure 4. The number of tornadoes in 2015 thus far is running about 25% below the 1954-2007 average for this time of year, when adjusted for multiple initial reports and for tornado “inflation” (the increased likehood in more recent years that a given tornado is documented). Image credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

An uptick in tornado deaths over the last decade
Naturally, given the nature of his job, Carbin worries about the possibility that a quiet stretch could soften people’s resolve to keep themselves and their loved ones safe from tornadoes. The decade from 2005 to 2014 produced a total of 1092 tornado-related deaths. That’s roughly double the death rate that prevailed over the three prior decades (1975-84, 1985-94, and 1995-2004). Clearly, the numbers for the past decade are skewed by the huge death toll in 2011, but a total of six of the ten years in 2005-2014 produced at least 50 deaths. That wasn’t the case in any of the three previous decades.

“The annual death toll in the modern era is likely influenced more by the number of tornadoes than by our improved ability to predict them,” Carbin emphasized. “The conditions to support a widespread killer tornado outbreak can come together in a matter of 2-3 days. We need to maintain vigilance!”

Paris negotiations plow ahead
Diplomats from around the world continue to work on a 54-page draft of the agreement that organizers hope to finalize and adopt next week at the UN climate summit in Paris. One of the biggest points of difference right now is the maximum amount of global warming that emission cuts should allow for. The idea of keeping global temperature rise to no more than 2.0°C above preindustrial levels has been widely--but not universally accepted--for many years. There is nothing “magic” about 2.0°C, as significant impacts can be expected even at lower amounts of warming, and the effects would get progressively worse at higher amounts of warming. A group of nations now numbering more than 100 has been pushing for a maximum of 1.5°C rather than 2.0°C, a move that has gained momentum as well as resistance. We’ll have more on the Paris negotiations next week; in the meantime, I’ll be discussing the summit on Friday and through next week on the Weather Channel’s Weather Underground program (#WUTV). These segments will air at 6:40 pm EST on most if not all days.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson





Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

wunderphoto by adkinsadam

" I’ll be discussing the summit on Friday and through next week on the Weather Channel’s Weather Underground program (#WUTV). These segments will air at 6:40 pm EST on most if not all days."

Great! I will tune in most days.
Full disclosure I tune in most days anyway.


I record all the wutv episodes on the DirecTV dvr.

Will Bob Henson be in studio in the Lazy Boy recliner?

Miami had a new record high PW for December of 2.25, this is December, not August! That is a very high value even for August. Miami had nearly 5 inches of rain at the airport so far from the event.
Quoting 4. Jedkins01:

Miami had a new record high PW for December of 2.25, this is December, not August! That is a very high value even for August. Miami had nearly 5 inches of rain at the airport so far from the event.


3.69" since midnight
4.83" for 24 hours

In Fort Myers we set the daily rainfall record yesterday at just under 2". The old record went back to 1905. So that was a long standing record.
We have seen hundreds of local NWS statements this year stating the PWATS were at or above historical records.

and In every month.



"Gee"
The next system heading into California looks pretty wet :

Thanks dok henson.

On another note, I just got un-banned. The only linkage I could see to this ban was a comment I made about attacking ISIS. Why did I get banned? I mean, some of us were talking about that shooting and comment 274 on the previous blog said something about the female suspect in that shooting was related to ISIS.
So, why did I get banned?
Quoting 8. 62901IL:

Thanks dok henson.

On another note, I just got un-banned. The only linkage I could see to this ban was a comment I made about attacking ISIS. Why did I get banned? I mean, some of us were talking about that shooting and comment 274 on the previous blog said something about the female suspect in that shooting was related to ISIS.
So, why did I get banned?


I think we just need to focus on the weather and the blog topic. We've discussed the horrible event quite a bit in the previous blogs. You could send a message to admin about your ban.
Quoting 8. 62901IL:

Thanks dok henson.

On another note, I just got un-banned. The only linkage I could see to this ban was a comment I made about attacking ISIS. Why did I get banned? I mean, some of us were talking about that shooting and comment 274 on the previous blog said something about the female suspect in that shooting was related to ISIS.
So, why did I get banned?
In order to remove a post, a moderator has to ban the blogger for a few minutes. It's a software thing, I think. They removed ALL the posts regarding San Bernadino, and everyone who posted about it got banned for a few minutes- mostly so they could remove the posts.

No biggie, carry on.
Quoting 6. Patrap:

We have seen hundreds of local NWS statements this year stating the PWATS were at or above historical records.

and In every month.



"Gee"
It's just a coincidence, Pat. I'm sure of it. Just another coincidence.
I just finished updating a table presenting ENSO monthly records from 26 different indices, approximately half of which are based upon the Oceanic Nino Index. Quite a few records are beginning to fall under the current NINO & we're now only lagging behind 1997-98 & 1982-83 in terms of the number of monthly records broken. I will periodically continue to update this table & expect to add several new indices over the coming months.
The 1877-78, 1888-89, 1982-83, & 1997-98 Super El Ninos are bolded/italicized while this year is shown in red. There's certainly a legitimate reason to add an additional, exceptional class of NINOs apart from the Strong events, considering that approximately 80-85% of the monthly records are held by the 5 observed "Super" El Ninos (including this year).


Quoting 11. Neapolitan:

It's just a coincidence, Pat. I'm sure of it. Just another coincidence.

Ancient Chinese curse: "May you live in a time of coincidences."
Thanks for the Updates Mr. Henson....
Something happened with my Google Chrome and I lost all my bookmarks and therefore I lost all my hurricane bookmarks as well. If anyone could be helpful to share or mail me some resources, that'd be great and I'd very much appreciate the help. Thanks!
Quoting 6. Patrap:

We have seen hundreds of local NWS statements this year...

and In every month.





Quite an interesting blob and spin up approaching Cuba. What's the likelihood of cyclogenesis at this time of the year given its location...time will tell surely.

Blessings!
Quoting 8. 62901IL:
Thanks dok henson.

On another note, I just got un-banned. The only linkage I could see to this ban was a comment I made about attacking ISIS. Why did I get banned? I mean, some of us were talking about that shooting and comment 274 on the previous blog said something about the female suspect in that shooting was related to ISIS.
So, why did I get banned?


Bans are like Mother-in-Laws. You swear you'll never get one but then once you do, you hope it's your last one...
It would be cool if you could have a ban-counter next to your handle. well, I suppose that may encourage some to have the highest number.. never mind.. fantastic late fall day her in NW FL... have a nice weekend everyone!
Thank you Bob Henson for the blog.

Happy 3200 everybody!
Thank You so Much for the Tornado stats Mr. Henson and for noting some of theories related to 2015. Fatalities as you have noted often have just as much to do with trajectory (over a more heavily populated region vs. less populated) as the actual numbers but an outbreak event increases the odds all the way around.

Now we have to see what happens in the Spring of 2016; waning El Ninos in the Spring traditionally produce the most tornadoes but we are in a record strong one now and have to see when the waning starts and under what time-frame between March and June and whether any of the potential 2015 suppression issues remain in place.

No way to know at this time exactly what the 2016 severe weather Spring might produce.
Quoting 5. Sfloridacat5:



3.69" since midnight
4.83" for 24 hours

In Fort Myers we set the daily rainfall record yesterday at just under 2". The old record went back to 1905. So that was a long standing record.


Yeah definitely a much needed event down there in southeast FL, not sure if your area needed it or not, but I'm sure additional heavy rain in the dry season is appreciated.

It's funny that southeast Florida has had more rain this fall than they had in much of the summer, and yet this is usually the driest time of the year. The same happened here also, we were on track to make it into the top driest years on record in Tallahassee after a much drier than average summer, then we had all this heavy rain since early November which ended much of the drought and pulled us out of the top driest rankings.

November is the driest month of the year on average here, yet it ended up as the wettest month of the year this time, we had 8.76 here for November, add that to the 1.27 that we had just other day, and I've had 10.03 in the past 33 days after getting just 3.84 from August 18th(when I moved back) to October 31st. It's been a much needed and unlikely recovery run here and in southeast FL.
Quoting 19. Tornado6042008X:

Thank you Bob Henson for the blog.

Happy 3200 everybody!


You know your going to have to explain what that means!!!
And now for something completely different.


Broken Mill Pond Dam at Old Mill Brew Pub in downtown Lexington, SC. Destroyed by "Fire Hose" rain event in the wake of Hurricane Joaquin in October 2015.
Photo taken November 15, 2015, over a month after the collapse.
As you can see, the locally popular microbrewery portion of the pub (boarded up windows) is still out of service for the foreseeable future, but we did visit the restaurant/bar which reopened about three weeks ago. Through the trees to the right of the break, you can just see one of the upscale homes which used to have a picturesque setting on the pond. The houses along Twelve Mile creek and around the pond lost their bulkheads, retaining walls, fishing docks and large chunks of their landscapes. Some had water flowing inside their ground floors as well. Notice, too, how the riverbed declines and is completely scoured out beyond the dam. The mess at that end of the town was terrible.
I thought this would illustrate to us just how long "recovery" can take in the wake of disaster even in a well-to-do, relatively well-insured community. This area will of course never be the same, and the once-enviable homes have lost incalculable value, probably permanently.
wait till late feb early spring it will be a twister season never seen before

thanks for the update gentlemen have a great weekend

Good news everyone! The wind storm for Western Washington that was supposed to hit yesterday never materialized! The winds were a paltry 15-20 mph, with gusts to 40. Which does not warrant any high wind advisories or watches for the Puget Sound region. The interesting part was the fact the the Seattle NWS did not cancel the High Wind Warning, but left it up "just in case" the weather shifted. There were a lot of people waiting for winds that never came...

This was a pretty bad missed forecast as evidenced by Dr. Cliff Mass' blog title of "Windstorm is Cancelled." It wasn't until the 12pm model runs came out that it became apparent the forecasted low was not developing at all. We only ended up with a low pressure trough.

All in all, I'm perfectly happy to go back to cloudy, rainy days with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s!
We have been amazingly fortunate in Alabama since 2011. Since that one horrible year, with a total of 145 tornadoes and 242 deaths, we declined to 55 tornadoes and 3 deaths in 2012, 23 tornadoes in 2013 with zero fatalities, and increased a bit to 54 tornadoes and 2 deaths in 2014. We're at an amazing 19 tornadoes and zero deaths year to date in 2015. Alabama averages 44 tornadoes a year but, even in 2014, when the number of tornadoes was a little above average, the total deaths of 2 is remarkably below the average of 14 since 1950 . As one example, 2014's count was 43 out of 54 tornadoes of EF-1 or below, 30 of which were EF-0. The strongest tornadoes we had were 4 EF-3's. So far this year, we've had exactly one EF-2 and nothing stronger. I haven't had a chance to check to records for EF-4 and above tornadoes, but it's very rare we go through a year without at least one, and several in most years. We have not had a single day in 2015 when the Skywarn amateur radio net was activated for tornadoes in central Alabama. Assuming we don't have an unexpected outbreak for the rest of the month, that's going to stand as a record going back to 1972 for us in amateur radio.

I don't have any idea why this sudden drop in tornado numbers has occurred and, more importantly for reducing fatalities, why the tornadoes we've had have been generally weak. Given our increasing ability to find even weak EF-0 tornadoes, the annual number should be increasing, all other things being equal. It's clearly not El Nino one way or the other. I wouldn't point the finger at climate change as being to only reason, but there has to be some part that climate change is playing. It's only four years for the weaker than average tornadoes, and I expect our reprieve to end in 2016 with the Super Godzilla El Nino. Still, if this trend continues over the decade, it's pretty hard to assume everything is just nominal.
Storm 'Desmond' has been battering us here in southern Scotland for the past several hours. 85 mph gusts and up to 8 inches of rain expected on higher ground. The jet stream's 'stuck', and it looks like more of the same for the foreseeable future.

Link
Quoting 26. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


It will be warm for the weekend, and into all of next week. The colder change still looks possible around the middle-late part of the month.
Quoting 15. Articuno:

Something happened with my Google Chrome and I lost all my bookmarks and therefore I lost all my hurricane bookmarks as well. If anyone could be helpful to share or mail me some resources, that'd be great and I'd very much appreciate the help. Thanks!

Your probably already familiar with Levi's site www.tropicaltidbits.com But it's a start.
Quoting 23. GreyJewel:

And now for something completely different.


Broken Mill Pond Dam at Old Mill Brew Pub in downtown Lexington, SC. Destroyed by "Fire Hose" rain event in the wake of Hurricane Joaquin in October 2015.
Photo taken November 15, 2015, over a month after the collapse.
As you can see, the locally popular microbrewery portion of the pub (boarded up windows) is still out of service for the foreseeable future, but we did visit the restaurant/bar which reopened about three weeks ago. Through the trees to the right of the break, you can just see one of the upscale homes which used to have a picturesque setting on the pond. The houses along Twelve Mile creek and around the pond lost their bulkheads, retaining walls, fishing docks and large chunks of their landscapes. Some had water flowing inside their ground floors as well. Notice, too, how the riverbed declines and is completely scoured out beyond the dam. The mess at that end of the town was terrible.
I thought this would illustrate to us just how long "recovery" can take in the wake of disaster even in a well-to-do, relatively well-insured community. This area will of course never be the same, and the once-enviable homes have lost incalculable value, probably permanently.
It's a good, although unfortunate, example of what happens to an area after a dam breach, and how difficult it is to restore things to what they were before the dam got built. As you say, no matter what's done, the area will never be the same.
Quoting 15. Articuno:

Something happened with my Google Chrome and I lost all my bookmarks and therefore I lost all my hurricane bookmarks as well. If anyone could be helpful to share or mail me some resources, that'd be great and I'd very much appreciate the help. Thanks!


WU mail me what you need. I have about 4 thousand bookmarks I can send you.
Quoting 22. PedleyCA:



You know your going to have to explain what that means!!!
What is he talking about?
Quoting 22. PedleyCA:



You know your going to have to explain what that means!!!
Blog entry number.
Quoting 21. Jedkins01:



Yeah definitely a much needed event down there in southeast FL, not sure if your area needed it or not, but I'm sure additional heavy rain in the dry season is appreciated.

It's funny that southeast Florida has had more rain this fall than they had in much of the summer, and yet this is usually the driest time of the year. The same happened here also, we were on track to make it into the top driest years on record in Tallahassee after a much drier than average summer, then we had all this heavy rain since early November which ended much of the drought and pulled us out of the top driest rankings.

November is the driest month of the year on average here, yet it ended up as the wettest month of the year this time, we had 8.76 here for November, add that to the 1.27 that we had just other day, and I've had 10.03 in the past 33 days after getting just 3.84 from August 18th(when I moved back) to October 31st. It's been a much needed and unlikely recovery run here and in southeast FL.


Feast or famine depending which part of the state one lives. It's been dry here for a couple of months. 1.55" in October and 1.32" in November. Averages are 4.24" and 2.3" respectively. Had my first December rain overnight which filled the gauge with an impressive .02. ;)
Quoting 25. Seattleite:

Good news everyone! The wind storm for Western Washington that was supposed to hit yesterday never materialized! The winds were a paltry 15-20 mph, with gusts to 40. Which does not warrant any high wind advisories or watches for the Puget Sound region. The interesting part was the fact the the Seattle NWS did not cancel the High Wind Warning, but left it up "just in case" the weather shifted. There were a lot of people waiting for winds that never came...

This was a pretty bad missed forecast as evidenced by Dr. Cliff Mass' blog title of "Windstorm is Cancelled." It wasn't until the 12pm model runs came out that it became apparent the forecasted low was not developing at all. We only ended up with a low pressure trough.

All in all, I'm perfectly happy to go back to cloudy, rainy days with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s!
I'm glad to hear it was at least a missed forecast in your favor. I have noticed the same kind of over reliance on the HRRR hourlies here as well when it comes to forecasting. A big chunk of the HRRR comes from the GFS. When the GFS continues on a solution with no agreement from the other major models, the GFS is often wrong. Since the HRRR is such a short term model, it can turn on a dime, with a plus six hour forecast showing something completely different than it did the hour before. The HRRR is a good tool in the attempt to increase accuracy in microscale forecasts, but it's only as good as the data that's fed into it. I've seen the same kind of "We'll keep the warning up just in case" thing here as well. It happened last year with a flash flood warning that went on for three hours after the skies cleared. As you know, wind up there is so hard to predict. You can have 60 mph gusts and then, an hour later, it can be dead calm. I guess I'd lean toward letting the warning stand just in case also.
Quoting 34. Tornado6042008X:

Blog entry number.
That didn't help explain "3200" for me.
Quoting 34. Tornado6042008X:

Blog entry number.


DOH
Quoting 37. sar2401:

That didn't help explain "3200" for me.


Look in the URL


ie: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comme nt.html?entrynum=3200#commenttop
I was pleasantly surprised to see my tornado photo included in this blog entry, thanks for using it in here!

That was quite an amazing tornado to chase. Intense chase. The fact that my buddy CJ and I were able to see and document the most powerful tornado of the year is pretty special as well.

If anyone would like to see my full chase video from that day, just Click Here
The current El Niño set a monthly record in November, and may eventually become the strongest El Niño on record this winter, according to data just released from NOAA.

Water temperatures near the ocean surface reached their highest positive anomalies on record in the zone of the equatorial Pacific Ocean defining either El Niño or its opposite, La Niña, in November. This means the sea-surface water temperature was farther above average for the time of year than any previous month in reliable records dating to 1950.

Specifically, the water temperature in this region was about 2.35 degrees Celsius above average in November 2015, topping the previous record monthly anomaly from November 1997 by 0.02 degrees Celsius, in reliable records dating to 1950.


Link
Quoting 30. ILwthrfan:


Your probably already fimilar with Levi's site www.tropicaltidbits.com But it's a start.


I knew I had something missing, somehow I forgot about that.. I guess it's because it's off-season. :P

Quoting 32. Grothar:



WU mail me what you need. I have about 4 thousand bookmarks I can send you.


4000.. wow.. I don't want you wasting too much time looking through your bookmarks for me, but if you want, I'll pm you, I don't really know what bookmarks I need or want, though. lol. Very kind of you, though. :)
Quoting 42. Abacosurf:




When that wind dies down, there will probably be some decent surf somewhere down on the Mexican coast (BOC).
Launch in less then 4 mins..
Quoting 25. Seattleite:
All in all, I'm perfectly happy to go back to cloudy, rainy days with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s!
That's what Houston has been having. Sun finally came out, though, and ruined it. :)
Wind constraints keep getting exceeded. They keep trying...4mins again. Looks pretty cloudy here.
One second in..another wind violation. Recycling again.
(((charlesimages)))
Scrub , Due to Wind violations .

recycle

Drain Her, get the lug wrench out.

Someone get some fresh coffee in here please.

And they are done for the day. They are trying to launch an Atlas 5 rocket with a commercial Cygnus cargo craft to the ISS.

This is the first time an Atlas rocket is being used to resupply or do any sort of International Space Station support. Both the contracted USA ISS suppliers, Orbital ATK’s Antares rocket and the SpaceX Falcon 9 are grounded with failure. Orbital ATK went to United Launch Alliance and bought a ride on a reliable Atlas 5 for Cygnus.

Quoting 52. ncstorm:

Rocket Soot Emissions and Climate Change


Link There's been papers on this area of interest since 1980 at least.
Why Fast-Track Trade Deals, But Not Climate Agreements?
by Sujata Dey

… But as the conference opens, I cannot help thinking that, while countries rush to sign trade deals such as CETA and the new Trans-Pacific Partnership, they cannot seem to get a binding climate change agreement.

… trade agreements allow corporations to have binding rights through the Investor State Dispute Settlement process, involving a private arbitration process that allows corporations to sue states over laws or decisions that get in the way of profits. The message is: you have a right to profits but no rights to clean air or a decent wage, no rights to have clean drinking water.


Link
Interesting.
Quoting 39. PedleyCA:



Look in the URL


ie: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comme nt.html?entrynum=3200#commenttop


Using Chrome the entry number is not displayed.

URL

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/twis ters-give-nation-a-pass-in-2015-lowest-death-toll- on-record
Southern India Is Hit With Deadly Flooding After Wettest December Day In 100 Years

That follows a November that brought the city 300 percent more rain than is usual for the month. Monsoon winds typically bring rainfall to Chennai during October, November, and December, but rainfall this year has been exceptional —

Link
You know you've been watching too much news when you read "ISS" as "ISIS"..
55. Gearsts
11:43 PM GMT on December 04, 2015

Interesting.

Indeed.
That pigeon blood ruby color in Hudson Bay is very interesting . and given what the near term forecasts call for Canada. The ice is not going to be marching very fast , over the next 2 weeks.
Which begs the question, about the freeze-up there. Exactly when does the Bay's average occur there ?

The other side of the coin is the cold blob off Greenland in the North Atlantic, and the deep blue on it's Southeast tip . There is major deep water outlet there for fresh water flowing from the ice sheet. And that cold water blob doesn't really move. It just changes shape.
Quoting 58. Articuno:

You know you've been watching too much news when you read "ISS" as "ISIS"..


Amen.
Quoting 56. nrtiwlnvragn:



Using Chrome the entry number is not displayed.

URL

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/twis ters-give-nation-a-pass-in-2015-lowest-death-toll- on-record

It may not be Chrome. It changed recently depending on which way you enter a blog. If you click on a handle or for Jeff Masters' use the News & Blog tab & select Dr Jeff Masters, you should see the address with the number.

Probably bettered the SEO? It did create a problem if you have several blogs with the same title & someone tries to enter a current one from the Blog Index they can land in any one of the old blogs with the same title.
Quoting 59. ColoradoBob1:

55. Gearsts
11:43 PM GMT on December 04, 2015

Interesting.

Indeed.
That pigeon blood ruby color in Hudson Bay is very interesting . and given what the near term forecasts call for Canada. The ice is not going to be marching very fast , over the next 2 weeks.
Which begs the question, about the freeze-up there. Exactly when does the Bay's average occur there ?

The other side of the coin is the cold blob off Greenland in the North Atlantic, and the deep blue on it's Southeast tip . There is major deep water outlet there for fresh water flowing from the ice sheet. And that cold water blob doesn't really move. It just changes shape.
You do have to wonder if there isn't something about the internal plumbing of the ice sheet that directs most of the surface meltwater that goes into the moulins down to the southern tip and out into the ocean, thus feeding that cold blob. That could certainly spell trouble for the AMOC. It makes sense that the southern end would be warmer and melting faster, thus feeding that flow.
Quoting 58. Articuno:

You know you've been watching too much news when you read "ISS" as "ISIS"..


One more thing , each is a perfect bookend for what mankind is capable of doing.
Quoting 61. Skyepony:


It may not be Chrome. It changed recently depending on which way you enter a blog. If you click on a handle or for Jeff Masters' use the News & Blog tab & select Dr Jeff Masters, you should see the address with the number.

Probably bettered the SEO? It did create a problem if you have several blogs with the same title & someone tries to enter a current one from the Blog Index they can land in any one of the old blogs with the same title.


I use Chrome, entered via a bookmark to \hurricane and then clicked on the blog entry, I can see it's #3200. So Chrome not the issue.
Quoting 62. CaneFreeCR:

You do have to wonder if there isn't something about the internal plumbing of the ice sheet that directs most of the surface meltwater that goes into the moulins down to the southern tip and out into the ocean, thus feeding that cold blob. That could certainly spell trouble for the AMOC. It makes sense that the southern end would be warmer and melting faster, thus feeding that flow.


Greenland is a bath tub with 5 drains. Every one is opening up , we just learned the one in the Northeast corner is now opening up. Given the depth in the center of the island, and the way salt and fresh water react If we pop open enough of this plumping , there's no reason why warmer sea water can't flow directly to the center of the island, and colder fresh water can't flow on top of it into the ocean. All of this, will make ice sheet extremely mobile.

The map -



There is a huge current sweeping down the East coast of the island above this Southeast outlet.
Quoting 58. Articuno:

You know you've been watching too much news when you read "ISS" as "ISIS"..

Just my own experience, lol. In Europe, more and more leaders and media won't use IS(IS) (which sounds not too bad as it let you think of the ancient Egyptian godness Isis) but the acronym "Daesh", and this because ISIS itself doesn't like it. This is why (see second part of the article):
Decoding Daesh: Why is the new name for ISIS so hard to understand?


And now admire this latest magnificent stormy cyclone in the very North Atlantic, south of Iceland, please:




Surface map for tomorrow: 945mb for "Ted" between Iceland and Norway, umm.
Quoting 65. ColoradoBob1:



Greenland is a bath tub with 5 drains. .....There is a huge current sweeping down the East coast of the island above this Southeast outlet.


In the last few weeks it has swept a good bit of thicker ice down to a lower latitude & is forecast to continue over the next week...


credit:NAVY
This blog needs more of the REAL ISIS:



Those other clowns are just wannabees.
I was thunder struck by this image , it answered so many questions. And changed my thinking.

First, Greenland is not the world's largest island , it is the worlds largest archipelago. And why does it have that large bowl in it's middle ?

Second , notice the outlet on the Southwest coast, where the Titanic iceberg was born. That's the mouth of the world's fastest glacier. !5 years ago it was moving at 2 feet a day. Last measurement I saw, it's at 150 meters a day. So, roughly from 2 feet to 450 feet in 15 years. Notice how wide this drain is off the ice sheet. And how few it's obstructions are.
But the real interesting thing is , this outlet is several thousand meters deep.

Greenland is far more important to the Earth's thermostat than we ever dreamed.

Quoting 67. Skyepony:



In the last few weeks it has swept a good bit of thicker ice down to a lower latitude & is forecast to continue over the next week...


credit:NAVY


Yes, but the cold fresh water is leaving Greenland at a great dept. At this drain. Don't ask me why. But to seems to leave Greenland and pop up Southwest of Iceland.
Too bad some grad student hasn't measured the salt content of buoey data of the surface waters Southwest of Iceland.
Just notice that Greenland is shaped like a NY strip steak.
No rain and too little drought aid in Ethiopia
Deutsche Welle English, December 4, 2015
As world leaders and experts discuss climate change, Ethiopia is experiencing a serious drought which has decimated food crops. Food aid agencies warn the number of people in need could rise to 15 million in 2016.
A herdsman in the Awash-Fantale district of the bone-dry Afar region of Ethiopia bemoans the death of his cattle from drought. "The last drop of rain fell around Ramadan of last year," he says. Cattle are the major form of currency in this remote corner of Africa's second most populous country. "Since then we have had no rain. So there is no water and no grass. Cattle are dying in great numbers. There is no government help," the herdsman said. He and others appealed to a DW reporter to take a message of urgency "back to the responsible body."
Ethiopia is once again in the iron grip of a potentially devastating drought. While the worst-affected regions including Somali, Oromia, Tigray and Amhara have yet to record the loss of human lives, the dying of livestock – a major export earner of much-needed hard currency – has set alarm bells ringing in government offices in Addis Ababa and at international food agencies. Some 8 million Ethiopians currently need food aid. ...


Kinda neat outside right now. Had dense fog develop rapidly right as the sun hit the dirt. The fog was so thick, the trees were raining fat drops. Now temps have dipped under 32. Everything is beginning to freeze.
Quoting 71. washingtonian115:

Just notice that Greenland is shaped like a NY strip steak.


I bet Greenland doesn't taste as good, though.
Ever notice on maps that Greenland will be as big as the continental U.S.?  I always love the global map distortions on WU that the further north you go it just keeps getting larger.
Paul Butterfield – In My Own Dream

Link
...also, the NY cut is my all time fave
Colorado Bob, ever look at what Antarctica would look like without ice?  Dumb question, I know you have, but that is my favorite hidden land mass.  Islands, lakes, It wouldn't be a solid continent w/o the ice.
Quoting 64. skycycle:



I use Chrome, entered via a bookmark to \hurricane and then clicked on the blog entry, I can see it's #3200. So Chrome not the issue.
Using Chrome, if I enter the blog clicking on the title, no "3200". Same If I click on "View Full Blog" below the blog summary. I only see the "3200" if I click on the "View Comments" link instead. It's 3199 for the previous blog and so on, all they way to 3192, when I stopped checking. It's apparently an index number used to get the comments for the current blog. Hence, some people see it and some people don't, depending on what link they click to get to the blog, and why the "happy 3200 day" comment made no sense to me and others.
Quoting 78. ATLsweather:

Colorado Bob, ever look at what Antarctica would look like without ice?  Dumb question, I know you have, but that is my favorite hidden land mass.  Islands, lakes, It wouldn't be a solid continent w/o the ice.

There's an interesting video produced by NASA that shows a pretty good map of what's under the ice in west Antarctica. That's the only area of the continent we really have an accurate picture of what's under the ice. Assuming the rest of Antarctica looks somewhat similar to the west, a very much larger version the present day Aleutian chain is probably a good analogue.
there are some sat gravity pics I have seen, but yeh, we really don't know.  Antarctica, our ancient frozen mystery.  At the same time, don't want to see it laid bare anytime soon.
Quoting 75. ATLsweather:

Ever notice on maps that Greenland will be as big as the continental U.S.?  I always love the global map distortions on WU that the further north you go it just keeps getting larger.

It's not just on WU. It's a distortion caused by the Mercator projection on almost all world maps. Mercator developed his map based on preserving rhumb lines, so sailors could accurately navigate using latitude and longitude. From that came the system of Universal Transverse Mercator measurements developed in the 1940's, which is the basis of how a GPS knows where it's at. Not bad for a system developed by a Flemish philosopher in 1569. :-)

Quoting 81. ATLsweather:

there are some sat gravity pics I have seen, but yeh, we really don't know. Antarctica, our ancient frozen mystery. At the same time, don't want to see it laid bare anytime soon.

It's all melted at times in the past, and it's likely to melt again. The amount of energy it would take to melt all the ice in Antarctica is difficult to for me to fathom, but I think it's safe to say no one alive now will see it. It will be interesting to see exactly how much rebound develops and what the continent area will be with no ice. There would be lots of volcanoes to visit too. Might be quite the tourist destination at some point in the future, assuming we're not all dead.
Yep, the world is round, maps are flat, the orange peel version is to hard to read though, the distortions make things strange sometimes, size wise (storms, not just land, I read the pressure.)
Quoting 82. sar2401:

It's not just on WU. It's a distortion caused by the Mercator projection on almost all world maps. Mercator developed his map based on preserving rhumb lines, so sailors could accurately navigate using latitude and longitude. From that came the system of Universal Transverse Mercator measurements developed in the 1940's, which is the basis of how a GPS knows where it's at. Not bad for a system developed by a Flemish philosopher in 1569. :-)



Interesting thing about size perception and the Flemish by the way.  When taking art history I had had to study some architectual paintings.  Supposedly exact replications of large churches in 15 whatever were supposed to be how things looked at the time.  (No cameras)  Then my teacher busted out that the artist was a midget!  (small person, sorry)  It showed me a bit about how perspective can matter in rep.  of facts.  The churches looked much more grand to that dude then most.
by the way, check out where our GPS locators are on the earth,  I found one by accident on a very remot island in the atlantic, some are on mainlands as well, but it is interesting.  Which begs the question, does not all life on Earth have to work together to achive greatness?  Can't have GPS w/o some cooperation.  How about other stuff too?
So looking ahead into the rest of December and into January

I'd say next week looks mild and or warm
And next 2 to 3 weeks going into January looks to be getting cold

Looking at the state of the El Niño(very strong but possibly peaked and now decreasing), the NAO(currently in +NAO expected to increase slightly before dropping off and into -NAO by the 16 Dec going forwards) and the AO(currently +AO expected to do slight up and downs before dropping off and into -AO by the 16 Dec going forwards) and (their forecast)

I suspect the South half of ContUS and East coast should eventually get into a "cold winter state" by the time we get into the Christmas/New Years Holidays into the rest of January
Quoting 88. wunderkidcayman:

So looking ahead into the rest of December and into January

I'd say next week looks mild and or warm
And next 2 to 3 weeks going into January looks to be getting cold

Looking at the state of the El Ni%uFFFDo(very strong but possibly peaked and now decreasing), the NAO(currently in NAO expected to increase slightly before dropping off and into -NAO by the 16 Dec going forwards) and the AO(currently AO expected to do slight up and downs before dropping off and into -AO by the 16 Dec going forwards) and (their forecast)

I suspect the South half of ContUS and East coast should eventually get into a "cold winter state" by the time we get into the Christmas/New Years Holidays into the rest of January


Looking at the latest from GFS for the 21st December
This would seem to more or less match up

Next week = Warm and/or Mild



Week after next = Warm and/or mild becoming Cold



Christmas week = Cold for South and East


* Disclaimer Subject to changes
Quoting 87. TropicalAnalystwx13:

#2005ing


Quoting 88. wunderkidcayman:

So looking ahead into the rest of December and into January

I'd say next week looks mild and or warm
And next 2 to 3 weeks going into January looks to be getting cold

Looking at the state of the El Niño(very strong but possibly peaked and now decreasing), the NAO(currently in +NAO expected to increase slightly before dropping off and into -NAO by the 16 Dec going forwards) and the AO(currently +AO expected to do slight up and downs before dropping off and into -AO by the 16 Dec going forwards) and (their forecast)

I suspect the South half of ContUS and East coast should eventually get into a "cold winter state" by the time we get into the Christmas/New Years Holidays into the rest of January
Quoting 91. Gearsts:



And
Quoting 78. ATLsweather:

Colorado Bob, ever look at what Antarctica would look like without ice?  Dumb question, I know you have, but that is my favorite hidden land mass.  Islands, lakes, It wouldn't be a solid continent w/o the ice.



Nobody made a map yet .
The weather here is just perfect right now for camping, fires, and overall for being outdoors:



Current conditions at
Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)
Lat: 30.39°NLon: 84.35°WElev: 79ft.

Fair

53°F

12°C
Humidity 64%
Wind Speed NE 6 mph
Barometer 30.40 in (1029.3 mb)
Dewpoint 41°F (5°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 51°F (11°C)
Last update 5 Dec 1:53 am EST

Here's the forecast for the next several days, comfortably cool and dry, who could complain about these temps?


Overnight
Mostly clear, with a low around 46. North northeast wind around 10 mph.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 67. Northeast wind around 10 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Northeast wind around 10 mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. North northeast wind around 5 mph.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 47.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 68.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
Wednesday Night
A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.


Massive natural gas storage leak alarms California residents, climate activists
Link
It’s the climate equivalent of the BP disaster in the Gulf of Mexico: the rupture of a natural gas storage site in California that is spewing vast amounts of methane into the atmosphere and is likely to go unchecked for three months.

Quoting 93. ColoradoBob1:



Nobody made a map yet .

The white in the center of Greenland, is thousands of feet below sea level.

Look at the center. it's lower than the ocean floor around it. Only ice blocks the ocean from invading.
I watched an old Nova from 5 years ago last night. The Blue Holes in the Bahamas. Every time the climate jumps , huge amounts of Sahara dust shows up in the caves of the Bahamas. Going back 70,000 years. Their are 5 events in this record. And the one we are living through.
95. wartsttocs

Pay no attention to the gas leaks in California, what we want to know is the tick tock of dew points in FLA.
jaws in maui could be a go for sunday http://www.surfnewsnetwork.com/swell-tracker/
Odd cold pool off Cape Fear, NC.

Quoting 55. Gearsts:

Interesting.

Quoting 53. Naga5000:



Link There's been papers on this area of interest since 1980 at least.


I know..I just find it interesting that climate change bloggers here are excited about rocket launches when its harming the environment..

I didnt think they knew which is why I posted the link..

You all have a great day of blogging..

Go Clemson!!

Quoting 101:

I just find it interesting that climate change bloggers here are excited about rocket launches when its harming the environment..

I didnt think they knew which is why I posted the link.
Do you truly find it "interesting"? Or are you just maybe trying to make one of those nonsensical moral high ground arguments? I'm going to guess it's the latter. It's very similar to those who repeatedly state that, since a) using the internet requires electricity, and b) electricity generation often creates greenhouse gases, then c) we who write about climate change theory must not really believe it's happening, and therefore d) it's not happening.

Sigh...

Of course, such arguments aren't intended to be productive; they're only meant to distract from the real issues, while also casting aspersions on those who take the time to write thoughtful commentary. It's been my experience that they're generally ignored, which begs the question: instead of repeatedly posting the same type of wasted comment, why not take the time to craft helpful and educational commentary that everyone will enjoy? After all, it's really not that much more work.
Quoting 103. rjsenterp:

Another stake in the global warming heart, and something to be thankful for. So much for the increased storm intensities predicted by the climate change crowd. File it on the ash heap with increased hurricane intensities. Seventh year in a row with no major land falling hurricanes on the U.S. Mainland, setting another new record.
Substandard attempt at denialism. F for originality, D for brevity. Overall grade: D-.

BTW, here's a little something to help you next time:

ex-treme: (ecks-TREEM) adjective (prenominal) 1 : Most remote in any direction; outermost or farthest; either of the two limits or ends of a scale or range of possibilities.


Good luck, friend!

Quoting 101. ncstorm:



I know..I just find it interesting that climate change bloggers here are excited about rocket launches when its harming the environment..

I didnt think they knew which is why I posted the link..

You all have a great day of blogging..

Go Clemson!!




Really? So, we're launching hundreds of rockets per day into space now? Because that's the only conceivable way I could think of that rockets could pose an impact on the climate on a large scale (as opposed to airliners, which have, on average of up to 87,000 flights a day in the US alone). Also, do you know of another way to get climate satellites like JASON-2/3, QuikSCAT, RapidSCAT, TERRA, et cetera into orbit? Orbital velocity is about ~7.0 km/s. There literally is no other way to get satellites like that into Earth orbit besides rockets.
No rain for Tampa in December and it looks like we're heading into mid December with no rain.

For those interested, Tamino just posted another excellent piece on denialism vis-a-vis politics:

"Despite deniers’ neverending claim that they’re 'winning' their campaign to spread doubt about global warming, they’re losing. Big time. They just can’t win against nature. With heat waves on four continents at the same time this summer, once-in-a-thousand-years drought and flooding, wildfire on the rise in western North America, sea level rise enough that coastal cities now flood at extreme high tide even without storms or rain, an astounding record-breaking hurricane year in the Pacific, their precious 'pause' in temperature rise shown to be a sham all along, and two record-hottest years in a row, people are catching on. Even [members of a certain faction of a certain political party] can’t swallow the lie any more."

(Source)
These are some seriously impressive 2m temperature anomalies the GFS is showing in about 7 days. Not often you see lows only getting down to the mid 50s in Wisconsin in the middle of December (of course, I doubt people will be complaining up there).

Quoting 108. Neapolitan:

For those interested, Tamino just posted another excellent piece on denialism vis-a-vis politics:

"Despite deniers%u2019 neverending claim that they%u2019re 'winning' their campaign to spread doubt about global warming, they%u2019re losing. Big time. They just can%u2019t win against nature. With heat waves on four continents at the same time this summer, once-in-a-thousand-years drought and flooding, wildfire on the rise in western North America, sea level rise enough that coastal cities now flood at extreme high tide even without storms or rain, an astounding record-breaking hurricane year in the Pacific, their precious 'pause' in temperature rise shown to be a sham all along, and two record-hottest years in a row, people are catching on. Even [members of a certain faction of a certain political party] can%u2019t swallow the lie any more."

(Source)


Republicans keep announcing that they are doing what is in the best interest of the majority of American's on the stance of Climate Change.

My Reply is this from the New York Times.

Two-Thirds of Americans Want U.S. to Join Climate Change Pact

A solid majority of Americans say the United States should join an international treaty to limit the impact of global warming, but on this and other climate-related questions, opinion divides sharply along partisan lines, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.


So why are these clowns defying that with these veto's in office...

Food for thought for today.
"Figure 2. The EF4 tornado that plowed across northern Illinois just west of Chicago on April 9, 2015, photographed near Stillman Valley, Illinois. Image credit: wunderphotographer StormyPleasures (Charles Russell)."
Great photo.
Congrats, Charles!


The NWS and Weather Ready Nation deserve some props for the way they studied public attitude toward tornado warnings after 2011, and then reached out to improve public awareness after 2011 - in social media (et al...) At the same time, NWS discovered there's a fine line to thread related to over-warning. Regardless, having a plan for adequate shelter and being weather aware are the responsibilities of every citizen including those "just traveling through" a tornado-prone area on potential tornado days. Since 2011 there's been a huge improvement in large venue awareness which is good. Even with that, the bottom line is and will always be the tornado itself, where it goes and when - the FATE FACTOR. Sometimes a person can do everything the government tells him to do and die anyway.

In an effort to examine severe severity, might be interesting to look at hail damage stats over the years. I wonder who has? Still, the bottom line is WHERE the storms go. Populated areas or heavily traveled roads must be hit for hail (and mortality) stats to happen. Possible science will one day figure out an "ACE for severe." Probably not. Too many storms traveling over widespread areas on any given Sunday... or Tuesday... or...

(added parentheticals)
Quoting 112. SLU:



Shhhhh!!! Don't say this too loud. This is a pro-AGW/CC blog.



When did land masses become magnets that attract hurricanes? When did the Atlantic basin become the only basin to produce tropical systems? What is happening globally? The EPAC does not count? The WPAC does not count? Seasonal variability is not a factor? The very least you could do is to show some intellectual honesty. Would that be too much to ask of you?
The melting ice is causing glacial earthquakes in Greenland. In other news there are more ways to cause an earthquake than the basic fault structures...

Giant Earthquakes are Shaking Greenland

"In a new paper in the journal Science, a team of researchers from Swansea University in the UK, the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, and several other institutions explain how the loss of Greenland’s ice can generate glacial earthquakes. In brief: When vast icebergs break off at the end of tidal glaciers, they tumble in the water and jam the glaciers themselves backwards. The result is a seismic event detectable across the Earth."
Quoting 112. SLU:



Shhhhh!!! Don't say this too loud. This is a pro-AGW/CC/extreme weather blog.


Americans have become anti-intellectual since the 1960s, and increasingly anti-science, (Witness Lamar Smith, and his attacks on climate scientists) and proud of their ignorance, too. How this will help us challenge the threat of global warming, I don't know. It seems that much damage has already been done to our scientific community, which is always underfunded and now harassed by arrogant politicians.
I fear that without good science, America will fall behind the world, and will no longer be a leader. This is happening now.
Models trending toward a severe weather outbreak across FL next Friday. GFS solution would support tornadoes across much of FL.


Quoting 99. HaoleboySurfEC:

Odd cold pool off Cape Fear, NC.


Atlantic hasn't look this warm vs normal in almost 4 years and even with a +++NAO.
Quoting 92. wunderkidcayman:


And
I'm just showing what you are saying.
GFS & Canadian showing a significant severe threat across FL Friday thru all of next weekend with a high flood threat too especially from Tampa to the FL Big Bend.



Photo gallery of the flooding being caused by storm Desmond Guardian. Cumbria, in the north west of England appears to have had the worst of it. I'm about 100 miles north of there, but I haven't been out, so I don't know what it's like downtown.

The Met Office have upped the warning to 'red', the highest, and police have declared a state of emergency. The intensity of the storm isn't that unusual for this time of the year, but it has been one of the longest duration storms I can remember.
Quoting 113. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



When did land masses become magnets that attract hurricanes? When did the Atlantic basin become the only basin to produce tropical systems? What is happening globally? The EPAC does not count? The WPAC does not count? Seasonal variability is not a factor? The very least you could do is to show some intellectual honesty. Would that be too much to ask of you?

Hey, if it ain't happenin' in my backyard, it ain't happenin' nowhere
Quoting 115. ChiThom:


Americans have become anti-intellectual since the 1960s, and increasingly anti-science, (Witness Lamar Smith, and his attacks on climate scientists) and proud of their ignorance, too. How this will help us challenge the threat of global warming, I don't know. It seems that much damage has already been done to our scientific community, which is always underfunded and now harassed by arrogant politicians.
I fear that without good science, America will fall behind the world, and will no longer be a leader. This is happening now.


I agree with what you say. I would push the start date to the 1980s as the beginning of the attack on Science and scientific knowledge within the general population. The 1960s was a time when there was a very large public interest in Science due to the space program that was happening then. I remember sitting in classrooms and there would be a TV so that we could watch manned launches and recoveries. All classroom studies stopped to watch Neil Armstrong take man's first step on our moon. Science was very much alive and was held as something of pride around the world and not just in the U.S.. The 1970s saw our first real interest in the environment and how man's activity was negatively impacting it. We took steps to solve these problems then and many times it was Republican leadership that lead the way on this. President Richard Milhouse Nixon passed The Clean Air Act and The Clean Water Act. He then immediately used an Executive Order to create the EPA to regulate pollution and to enforce environmental laws. The 1980s witnessed a turning away from Science and our increasing our scientific knowledge. This is when the Republican leadership began to turn away from Science and to actively campaign against Science. The Republicans never became a leader in advancing Science since then. The Republican leadership has actively fought against the advancement of scientific knowledge since then. Yes, there have been a few Democrats that have joined with the Republicans in hampering the advancement of our scientific knowledge, but it is the Republican leadership that has lead the attacks against Science and the advancement of our scientific knowledge.
I don't know to what extent this is down to the strong El Nino, and the extra moisture this pumps into the atmosphere or the way it affect the jet stream - perhaps other bloggers could please comment? - however, and as I commented a couple of months ago, the severely stormy Autumn and early Winter continues in the British Isles. Winter storm "Desmond" is this weekend giving northern Britain quite a battering. The Beeb has good coverage of how things look so far: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-35015243.
There are numerous flood warnings and severe flood warnings, and further heavy to very heavy rain expected in Scotland and the NW over the next 24 hours. Many rivers are expected to flood and some to exceed their all time flow records; similarly, 24 hour and 36 hour rainfall total records are expected to be exceeded in many places. This storm continues a pattern of particularly troubled weather that began with "Abigail" a month or so ago, and there is no let up for at least several days, strong winds continuing throughout and heavy rain and very strong winds returning later next week.
Flood warnings are on the EA web site: http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood/31618. aspx;
Met. Office warnings on their website: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warning s/#?tab=warnings®ionName=uk&fcTime=1449273600, and the UK image/map can be found on http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/data/PWSCache/W arningsImage/Image/NSWWS-9d4ea575-0183-4615-bcfd-b f3b51c3cd03/uk/2015-12-5.
Where I live, the river is higher than many locals have seen it in all their lives. River levels over the north are not expected to drop much until next weekend.
Quoting 119. StormTrackerScott:

GFS & Canadian showing a significant severe threat across FL Friday thru all of next weekend with a high flood threat too especially from Tampa to the FL Big Bend.




What about Louisiana.
Quoting 123. JCheevorLoophole42:

I don't know to what extent this is down to the strong El Nino, and the extra moisture this pumps into the atmosphere or the way it affect the jet stream - perhaps other bloggers could please comment? - however, and as I commented a couple of months ago, the severely stormy Autumn and early Winter continues in the British Isles. Winter storm "Desmond" is this weekend giving northern Britain quite a battering. The Beeb has good coverage of how things look so far: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-35015243.
There are numerous flood warnings and severe flood warnings, and further heavy to very heavy rain expected in Scotland and the NW over the next 24 hours. Many rivers are expected to flood and some to exceed their all time flow records; similarly, 24 hour and 36 hour rainfall total records are expected to be exceeded in many places. This storm continues a pattern of particularly troubled weather that began with "Abigail" a month or so ago, and there is no let up for at least several days, strong winds continuing throughout and heavy rain and very strong winds returning later next week.
Flood warnings are on the EA web site: http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood/31618. aspx;
Met. Office warnings on their website: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warning s/#?tab=warnings®ionName=uk&fcTime=1449273600 , and the UK image/map can be found on http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/data/PWSCache/W arningsImage/Image/NSWWS-9d4ea575-0183-4615-bcfd-b f3b51c3cd03/uk/2015-12-5.
Where I live, the river is higher than many locals have seen it in all their lives. River levels over the north are not expected to drop much until next weekend.



It's the polar jet stream. It's meandering 'loops' (Rossby waves) are plunging further south and becoming larger. More importantly, these larger loops are getting stuck in the same place for much longer periods than in the past. The UK had its wettest winter on record in 2013/14 due to a stuck jet stream bringing a train of low pressure systems. From the BBC:

The UK has had the wettest winter since national records began in 1910, the Met Office has confirmed.
Separate records held for England and Wales also show the heaviest rainfall since they were started in 1766.
Regional records have also been beaten, with the flood-hit South East of England getting well over double the rainfall expected in a normal winter.
The persistent string of powerful storms and heavy rain brought extensive flooding to parts of the UK.
About 6,500 homes have been affected by flooding since December, with many people forced to evacuate their homes.
Provisional figures released by the Met Office said 517.6mm of rain fell in the UK between December 1 and February 24.
It compares with an average winter rain fall of 330.4mm between 1981 and 2010.


The prevailing theory is that this is being caused by a warming Arctic. The resulting reduced temperature contrast between Arctic and sub-Arctic air masses causes the jet stream to weaken and expand further south. El Nino probably isn't a factor.
Storm Desmond is battering the UK, with a lot of amber warnings up for parts of Scotland/England/Wales and even red warnings up for flooding (the highest level). Lots of flooding and strong winds are causing a lot of misery and life threatening situations. A 90 year old man is thought to have died after being blown by the winds into a moving bus in North London.

Weather warnings - Link





Articles with many more pictures and videos:

Link Link Link Link
127. beell
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 AM CST SAT DEC 05 2015

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A PROGRESSIVE...LOW-AMPLITUDE REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6 BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DAYS 7-8. HOWEVER...INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN ECMWF...GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES PERSIST RESULTING IN LOW PREDICTABILITY BEYOND DAY 5. CURRENT INDICATION IS THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 5 DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN INLAND. HOWEVER...THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF INDICATES SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING MIGHT OCCUR FOR A SEVERE THREAT BY DAY 6 OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT MIGHT EVOLVE BY DAY 8 FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A MORE AGGRESSIVE RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...HIGH ENSEMBLE DISPERSION SUGGESTS PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW IN THIS TIME FRAME. ..DIAL.. 12/05/2015
Thank you,Mr. Henson.
Quoting 112. SLU:



Shhhhh!!! Don't say this too loud. This is a pro-AGW/CC/extreme weather blog.



No, this is a pro-science blog. Someone saying "Nope, nuttin' happenin' in my backyard!" in regards to climate or weather is neither factual, smart, insightful, or relevant.
Quoting 103. rjsenterp:

Another stake in the global warming heart, and something to be thankful for. So much for the increased storm intensities predicted by the climate change crowd. File it on the ash heap with increased hurricane intensities. Seventh year in a row with no major land falling hurricanes on the U.S. Mainland, setting another new record.
Considering climate change impacts both ends of the extreme spectrum, drought and floods, well this can be considered a hurricane landfall drought. On the other hand, we just witnessed the strongest ever recorded hurricane by wind speeds and pressure in the EPAC this season, and 10 years ago we witnessed the strongest ever recorded hurricane in the Atlantic along with a record breaking amount of storms, I might also point out we witnessed Mitch 17 years ago, which remains the most deadliest hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin, surpassing the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. You would have to go all the way back to 1780 to find a storm that produced a higher death toll and that is unofficial. Also, let's not even go into the WPAC it's been like a Typhoon war zone over there, I can't even imagine what those people go through over there, especially in poorer countries like the Phillipines, so yes I do agree we do have something to be thankful for and that is we live in the U.S.A., now mind you we still have problems of our own, the drought conditions in California are still bad, which is definitely going to drive up food prices at the store. So yes, climate change is definitely having an impact already. I suggest actually travelling to one of these poorer countries. I visited Guyana last Christmas and in just 3 years and 7 years from the times I have been back respectively the water levels along the river have risen, the brown muddy waters are also being mixed with the blackwater rivers, so that tells me fresh waters from the canals upstream are being mixed with salt water flowing in from the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. What this is also doing is putting stress on the old kokers built long time ago by the Dutch and this rise in water levels are causing them to collapse.

Koker collapses leaving Ruimveldt under flood waters

Residents of Ruimveldt, Georgetown Friday morning woke up to water from the Demerara River gushing into their community after a drainage sluice (koker) collapsed, they said.

A resident said the lower flats of several homes were already being inundated since about 5:30 AM.

The problem at the koker has come at a time when there is there are unusually heavy Spring tides.

A number of communities and commercial districts along the banks of the Demerara, Essequibo and Pomeroon rivers have been affected by the Spring tides since Wednesday.

Just to give you an idea of how old one of these things are:



And then this is what results beautiful homes that are inundated:



NEW RECORD HIGHEST OCEAN LEVELS OFF CALIFORNIA: "the extremely high levels are likely the result of a combination of factors, including a record-breaking El Niño, warmer waters directly off our coast, and sea level rise from melting ice caps"

Link
Climate talks enter next phase, toughest decisions ahead
Source: Reuters - Sat, 5 Dec 2015 14:29 GMT
PARIS, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Global climate change talks in Paris moved into a new, tougher phase on Saturday as negotiators agreed to a draft accord that still leaves hundreds of points of dispute for ministers to resolve next week.
While a largely procedural step in the four-year quest for a binding deal to slow global warming, the fact that senior government officials from almost 200 nations agreed on the draft marks an improvement over the last failed summit in Copenhagen six years ago, where no such text was even approved.
"This text marks the will of all to reach an agreement," Laurence Tubiana, French climate envoy, told delegates at the half-way point of the meeting lasting until Dec. 11.
The top delegate from China, Su Wei, said the first week of the talks "though very difficult, have produced very good results and provide a strong foundation for next week." ...


Uruguay Makes Dramatic Shift to Clean Energy
Climate Central, Published: December 5th, 2015, By Jonathan Watts, The Guardian
As the world gathers in Paris for the daunting task of switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy, one small country on the other side of the Atlantic is making that transition look childishly simple and affordable.
In less than 10 years, Uruguay has slashed its carbon footprint without government subsidies or higher consumer costs, according to the country's head of climate change policy, Ramon Mendez.
In fact, he says that now that renewables provide 94.5 percent of the country's electricity, prices are lower than in the past relative to inflation. There are also fewer power cuts because a diverse energy mix means greater resilience to droughts. ...
Its been pouring here in Longwood so far .41" and counting.
Deniers here have gotten so bad. Not bad in the sense they overwhelm the blog, but bad in the sense they provide zero science to their pathetically thin arguments. It's cringe worthy that this type of misinformation, that a well informed fifth grader could see through, is still leading so many astray in America. An anti-science movement and anti-environmental movement is well underway in America and there is zero rational behind it outside of greed.
Quoting 124. Andrebrooks:

What about Louisiana.


From there to FL but the highest risk according to the GFS & Canadian would be in FL. Euro shows hardly anything on the 12Z Run.
Quoting 133. StormTrackerScott:

Its been pouring here in Longwood so far .41" and counting.

The ark is almost ready, right?
Quoting 136. ACSeattle:


The ark is almost ready, right?


Overall its been dry here its S FL where the flooding is happening.
I know. Quite remarkable. Which makes that cooler spot off Cape Fear really stand out.

Quoting 117. Gearsts:

Atlantic hasn't look this warm vs normal in almost 4 years and even with a +++NAO.
Quoting 134. DeepSeaRising:

Deniers here have gotten so bad. Not bad in the sense they overwhelm the blog, but bad in the sense they provide zero science to their pathetically thin arguments. It's cringe worthy that this type of misinformation, that a well informed fifth grader could see through, is still leading so many astray in America. An anti-science movement and anti-environmental movement is well underway in America and there is zero rational behind it outside of greed.


No one has ever been able to offer any Science that would support the deniers. This is exactly why the talking points they make now are even more ludicrous than before. They are running out of straws to grasp at. The problem for us is that they may have already proven successful enough with their misinformation, distractions and lies to have "won" their position.
Quoting 123. JCheevorLoophole42:

I don't know to what extent this is down to the strong El Nino, and the extra moisture this pumps into the atmosphere or the way it affect the jet stream - perhaps other bloggers could please comment? - however, and as I commented a couple of months ago, the severely stormy Autumn and early Winter continues in the British Isles. Winter storm "Desmond" is this weekend giving northern Britain quite a battering. The Beeb has good coverage of how things look so far: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-35015243.
There are numerous flood warnings and severe flood warnings, and further heavy to very heavy rain expected in Scotland and the NW over the next 24 hours. Many rivers are expected to flood and some to exceed their all time flow records; similarly, 24 hour and 36 hour rainfall total records are expected to be exceeded in many places. This storm continues a pattern of particularly troubled weather that began with "Abigail" a month or so ago, and there is no let up for at least several days, strong winds continuing throughout and heavy rain and very strong winds returning later next week.
Flood warnings are on the EA web site: http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood/31618. aspx;
Met. Office warnings on their website: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warning s/#?tab=warnings®ionName=uk&fcTime=1449273600, and the UK image/map can be found on http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/data/PWSCache/W arningsImage/Image/NSWWS-9d4ea575-0183-4615-bcfd-b f3b51c3cd03/uk/2015-12-5.
Where I live, the river is higher than many locals have seen it in all their lives. River levels over the north are not expected to drop much until next weekend.



I don't profess to be anything but an observer. One even that really doesn't understand the weather patterns where he currently lives. (I moved to the mid west a couple of years ago from the upper Texas Gulf Coast.

However, I will note that the Greenland glaciers are dumping enough fresh cold water into the north Atlantc to slow the Gulf Stream. This slowing is already showing up in higher tides along the very flat portions of the Eastern Seaboard. (I suspect, but have no confirmation, at all, that the reports of routine flooding in the Florida Keys is related to this slow down.) So, I humbly suggest you look closely at the speed of the current that loops up from the Carribean and back down to the U.K. I suspect that you will find a body of discussion from the Metorigists and Earth Scientists in Europe that will explain the changes you are seeing.
Quoting 131. DCSwithunderscores:

NEW RECORD HIGHEST OCEAN LEVELS OFF CALIFORNIA: "the extremely high levels are likely the result of a combination of factors, including a record-breaking El Nio, warmer waters directly off our coast, and sea level rise from melting ice caps"

Link
Thanks DC just wish the article provided source links.. I even spent a few precious minutes Googling for corroboration without success. With all of the science data readily available I don't know why these authors can't add some credibility to their writing.. One bright point was that at least there where no spelling errors!
Quoting 141. JNFlori30A:

Thanks DC just wish the article provided source links.. I even spent a few precious minutes Googling for corroboration without success. With all of the science data readily available I don't know why these authors can't add some credibility to their writing.. One bright point was that at least there where no spelling errors!
One thing I will give residents of Deniersville, they have perfected "yanking this blog's chain".
Quoting 141. JNFlori30A:

Thanks DC just wish the article provided source links.. I even spent a few precious minutes Googling for corroboration without success. With all of the science data readily available I don't know why these authors can't add some credibility to their writing.. One bright point was that at least there where no spelling errors!


One place I've seen this before is on the discussion page from the NOAA site
Link
Earlier last month they said that king tides had been running about 1 foot above predictions.

Sea level trends map at: Link
Quoting 122. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I agree with what you say. I would push the start date to the 1980s as the beginning of the attack on Science and scientific knowledge within the general population. The 1960s was a time when there was a very large public interest in Science due to the space program that was happening then. I remember sitting in classrooms and there would be a TV so that we could watch manned launches and recoveries. All classroom studies stopped to watch Neil Armstrong take man's first step on our moon. Science was very much alive and was held as something of pride around the world and not just in the U.S.. The 1970s saw our first real interest in the environment and how man's activity was negatively impacting it. We took steps to solve these problems then and many times it was Republican leadership that lead the way on this. President Richard Milhouse Nixon passed The Clean Air Act and The Clean Water Act. He then immediately used an Executive Order to create the EPA to regulate pollution and to enforce environmental laws. The 1980s witnessed a turning away from Science and our increasing our scientific knowledge. This is when the Republican leadership began to turn away from Science and to actively campaign against Science. The Republicans never became a leader in advancing Science since then. The Republican leadership has actively fought against the advancement of scientific knowledge since then. Yes, there have been a few Democrats that have joined with the Republicans in hampering the advancement of our scientific knowledge, but it is the Republican leadership that has lead the attacks against Science and the advancement of our scientific knowledge.
I think you're right about the space program being a focus for us learning science, although I'd argue that it was the launch of Sputnik in 1957 that really showed how far behind we were in science education. Growing up in the 50's and 60's, there's no doubt the national push for science education shaped my thinking and education. I don't remember one of my friends wanting to become an MBA, but I had lots of friends wanting to become "rocket scientists".

I don't think history supports your idea that somehow Republicans took over in the 1980's and wrecked everything. We've had 20 years of Republican presidents since 1980 and will have had 16 years of Democrats as of 2016, so that's not a huge difference. What's more important was the control of Congress, especially since Sputnik. As this chart shows, control of the House has been solidly Democratic from 1955 until 1995. Democratic control of the Senate was from 1955 until 1981. Since then, control of both the Senate and House has gone back and forth, but Republican control of both houses has only happened for a period of 10 years in the period of 1995-2007, and we had a president that was about equally split between the Democrats and Republicans. I'd postulate that the difference today is we no longer have presidents that are good at compromise. Eisenhower, Johnson, and Nixon were masters of that art. They were able to accomplish goals regardless of what party controlled Congress. Reagan and Clinton were both able to work with the opposite party and get a lot of significant legislation passed. Since Clinton, we've had a series of presidents that believed ideology was more important than accomplishment, and that's gotten us into the mess we have today, regardless of control of Congress. It's easy to blame one party or the other, but I think it's a lot more complicated than that.



Link
Quick question, if I flag a post, is there supposed to be some indication that it did work? Because I see none at all, as opposed to 'plussing' a post which I do see the result of. Also, I think it's funny that the main blog has a flag button. I wonder how many people actually press that one.
Quoting 141. JNFlori30A:

Thanks DC just wish the article provided source links.. I even spent a few precious minutes Googling for corroboration without success. With all of the science data readily available I don't know why these authors can't add some credibility to their writing.. One bright point was that at least there where no spelling errors!


2015-2016 El Niño and California’s Coast and Ocean
Quoting 52. ncstorm:
Rocket Soot Emissions and Climate Change
Hi NC,

Did you try to look up more recent information? Science and engineering are always moving forward.

Spaceflight Insider has a good article online dated February 28, 2015 that addresses the subject of rocket motor emissions and pollution - and efforts to reduce them.

From that article:

To be sure, spaceflight is not a major factor in climate change. Low numbers of launches, compared to the use of cars or airplanes, keeps their impact limited. In 2009, researches estimated that as much as five percent of the world’s total CO2 emissions were derived from air traffic. Rocket launches, by contrast, only contributed to approximately one percent of ozone depletion in that year. While launches have since increased, and the use of certain ozone depleting particles curtailed, the percentage of climate change associated with rocket launces remains negligible.
Quoting 145. sar2401:

I think you're right about the space program being a focus for us learning science, although I'd argue that it was the launch of Sputnik in 1957 that really showed how far behind we were in science education. Growing up in the 50's and 60's, there's no doubt the national push for science education shaped my thinking and education. I don't remember one of my friends wanting to become an MBA, but I had lots of friends wanting to become "rocket scientists".

I don't think history supports your idea that somehow Republicans took over in the 1980's and wrecked everything.


Ah, but that is not what I was saying. What I was saying is that after 1980 it was Republican leadership that changed from the promotion of Science and the environment to fighting back on efforts to promote them. Since the 1980s it has been the Republican leadership that has fought against Science and the protection of the environment. I would be interesting in seeing any evidence that would show this is not true.
Quoting 106. CybrTeddy:



Really? So, we're launching hundreds of rockets per day into space now? Because that's the only conceivable way I could think of that rockets could pose an impact on the climate on a large scale (as opposed to airliners, which have, on average of up to 87,000 flights a day in the US alone). Also, do you know of another way to get climate satellites like JASON-2/3, QuikSCAT, RapidSCAT, TERRA, et cetera into orbit? Orbital velocity is about ~7.0 km/s. There literally is no other way to get satellites like that into Earth orbit besides rockets.
Everything we do has at least an implied cost-benefit ratio. Most of us understand that airliners by their very nature cause some pollution, as do cars and rockets. The real question is do the benefits exceed the cost. Most people would agree that, while we should do what we can do minimize the cost, the benefits still exceed the cost. We don't live in a black and white world.
Quoting 134. DeepSeaRising:

Deniers here have gotten so bad. Not bad in the sense they overwhelm the blog, but bad in the sense they provide zero science to their pathetically thin arguments. It's cringe worthy that this type of misinformation, that a well informed fifth grader could see through, is still leading so many astray in America. An anti-science movement and anti-environmental movement is well underway in America and there is zero rational behind it outside of greed.
I find it very hypocritical too, that the same ones are also the ones who post numerical model runs, satellite images of tropical cyclones by NASA and NOAA-GOES, and then they come on here and say how we shouldn't launch rockets carrying these satellites up into orbit because it's adding to the CO2 concentration. So if NASA stopped doing that, and the satellites currently in orbit became too old over time and eventually failed, then how in the hell would you expect us to get data from storms over the ocean? We would be putting ourselves back in the stone age where we wouldn't even have any advanced warning of an approaching storm and only be able to detect it by radar or if a ship so happens to be near the storm, by that time it might be too late to even prepare and evacuate from the storm. Some people need to use their brains for a second and start actually thinking. Again, I think these deniers just do this to show off and start drama within the scientific community. It's sad really, and no we are not here to spread all doom and gloom like the world is going to end, humans and other animal species will survive through this, but there is going to be some displaced people that will unfortunately have to find new homes, and adjust to a new lifestyle, but in 100 and 1000s years from now the warming will come to a halt and there will be another glaciation and the waters will recede and guess what along with that new flora and fauna will emerge and the planet will continue to be beautiful for the next 4.5 billion years or however long the Sun will last, once it flames out, that's it done, over, finish. Maybe, by then humans or some other species will have inhabited another planet in another galaxy. The Universe will continue, even when our galaxy dies. Still though we should live like good people and care for the ones around us, treasure life, and love each other, that will destroy evil. We live this life once, some live longer lives than others, live every day as if it was your last.
Quoting 149. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Ah, but that is not what I was saying. What I was saying is that after 1980 it was Republican leadership that changed from the promotion of Science and the environment to fighting back on efforts to promote them. Since the 1980s it has been the Republican leadership that has fought against Science and the protection of the environment. I would be interesting in seeing any evidence that would show this is not true.
I've seen no evidence the Reagan was anti science. A lot of the space and defense technology we have today was forged during his eight years. Almost the entire space shuttle program was funded during his administration. We didn't have to rely on the Russians for a space station, as we do today. He raised taxes more than any other non-war president, and was responsible for massive increases in the size of the departments of Education and Energy, hardly what one would expect from an anti science president. The first Bush was responsible for the SALT agreements limiting nuclear weapons and expansion of the EPA and Clean Air amendments. He also maneuvered a tax bill through Congress in the face of fierce opposition that provided money for many of the science agencies that wouldn't have been funded otherwise, and it probably cost him reelection. It was really the election of George W Bush that saw the ideological lines harden, and a lot of the anti science rhetoric we have today came from that period. The past seven years of the Obama administration hasn't seen an improvement in the funding of science agencies, even with control of both houses for his first four years. The rhetoric changed, but the results haven't. What I've seen is two presidents over the past 15 years with neither the desire nor ability to learn the art of compromise. To paraphrase another politician, compromise is the mother's milk of politics. Without it, nothing gets done, since ideology is all we have left. Unfortunately, none of the candidates from either party give me any hope that the art of compromise might once more blossom from the White House,
Saw this on CNN. The 'fairy tale' energy island

Ignore the stupid click bait title. Lots of good stuff.

You get two stories for the price of one! Can't beat that. One is the video on that page and the other is the news article. They are not the same story. Click now! This offer won't last long.
Even Newt Gingrich was a science nut. He worked with Al Gore to get funding for the internet. Then there's the moon colony idea. I'd put the switch as about when Newt lost power.
156. flsky
Quoting 152. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





Interesting video, but I take issue with the British-accented narrator. Last I heard, NASA was American.
Quoting 146. Mediarologist:

Quick question, if I flag a post, is there supposed to be some indication that it did work? Because I see none at all, as opposed to 'plussing' a post which I do see the result of. Also, I think it's funny that the main blog has a flag button. I wonder how many people actually press that one.

No, there's no feedback, and not even an indication that you've already flagged a post. You can press the button for as long as you wish and you won't get any kind of message saying you've already done it. The flag for the main blog exists on all blogs. Given the history of attempts to "upgrade" things, I'm happy they've left well enough alone with the Masters/Henson blog. They just got the plus button for the blog working again. :-)
Quoting 127. beell:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 AM CST SAT DEC 05 2015

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A PROGRESSIVE...LOW-AMPLITUDE REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6 BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DAYS 7-8. HOWEVER...INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN ECMWF...GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES PERSIST RESULTING IN LOW PREDICTABILITY BEYOND DAY 5. CURRENT INDICATION IS THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 5 DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN INLAND. HOWEVER...THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF INDICATES SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING MIGHT OCCUR FOR A SEVERE THREAT BY DAY 6 OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT MIGHT EVOLVE BY DAY 8 FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A MORE AGGRESSIVE RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...HIGH ENSEMBLE DISPERSION SUGGESTS PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW IN THIS TIME FRAME. ..DIAL.. 12/05/2015
It seems like it's "time" for some kind of severe weather outbreak in the Deep South. We already passed November, our usual secondary severe weather peak. As the SPC noted, the models continue to battle about the long term forecast, and I don't see anything with the "uh-oh" signal we've had in the past. This is starting to get like hurricanes and Florida, where it seems like our tornado drought will have to end soon, even though I know that's not statistically true.
Quoting 153. sar2401:

What I've seen is two presidents over the past 15 years with neither the desire nor ability to learn the art of compromise. To paraphrase another politician, compromise is the mother's milk of politics. Without it, nothing gets done, since ideology is all we have left. Unfortunately, none of the candidates from either party give me any hope that the art of compromise might once more blossom from the White House,
Nonsense. The "both sides do it" fallacy was proven wrong years ago, yet some insist on clinging to it. The fact of the matter is, both sides absolutely do NOT do it. Obama--especially at first--bent over beyond backwards to work with the GOP. But that party publicly stated that their Number One priority was to block Obama, and they've done that since. With a vengeance. They've stonewalled, filibustered, stalled, and lollygagged. They've taken extreme positions just so he wouldn't have a "win".

Let’s just say it: The Republicans are the problem. (Washington Post)("We have been studying Washington politics and Congress for more than 40 years, and never have we seen them this dysfunctional. In our past writings, we have criticized both parties when we believed it was warranted. Today, however, we have no choice but to acknowledge that the core of the problem lies with the Republican Party.")

Gridlock in Congress? Blame the GOP (CNN) ("For many years, journalists and scholars have lamented the rise of partisan polarization on Capitol Hill. The number of moderates has vastly declined and the number of bills that receive bipartisan support has greatly diminished. The usual culprits range from the advent of the 24-hour news cycle to changing demographics. But now observers are starting to note that both parties are not equally to blame, especially in recent years.")

GOP Most Responsible for Political Dysfunction (American University) (“Republicans have become a radical insurgency—ideologically extreme, contemptuous of the inherited policy regime, scornful of compromise, unpersuaded by the conventional understanding of facts, evidence and science, and dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition,” he said. “The evidence of this asymmetry is overwhelming.”)

OBAMA RESPONDS TO MYTH THAT BOTH PARTIES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR CURRENT GRIDLOCK (The Moderate Voice) ("You’ll hear if you watch the nightly news or you read the newspapers that, well, there’s gridlock, Congress is broken, approval ratings for Congress are terrible. And there’s a tendency to say, a plague on both your houses. But the truth of the matter is that the problem in Congress is very specific. We have a group of folks in the Republican Party who have taken over who are so ideologically rigid, who are so committed to an economic theory that says if folks at the top do very well then everybody else is somehow going to do well; who deny the science of climate change; who don’t think making investments in early childhood education makes sense; who have repeatedly blocked raising a minimum wage so if you work full-time in this country you’re not living in poverty; who scoff at the notion that we might have a problem with women not getting paid for doing the same work that men are doing.")

There's a Reason Voters Don't Blame Republicans for Congressional Gridlock (Mother Jones)("It's all fairly remarkable. McConnell has correctly grasped that if you sabotage the government, most voters won't really know how or why it happened. They'll just know that things are a mess and they'll get peevish about it. And when they look around for someone to blame, it will be the party in power.")
1980's too early -- whatever anti-science mindset has taken over the GOP it came later than that. I'd personally put the watershed at the 1994 Contract With America, which ushered in a completely new generation of Republican House members. Since then things have gotten progressively more ideological and partisan, to the point that many of these politicians now seem to believe their own propaganda. Washington (and increasingly the states) is now in perpetual campaign mode, and things are only done with an explicit eye to the next general and, more importantly, primary election in each politician's home district. There's a negative feedback loop going on where each candidate has to be more extreme than the one before or risk being outflanked on the right.

Can you imagine a House GOP member saying, today, something like "I believe in the scientific consensus about global warming and welcome any opportunity to work with the president to find solutions to this problem"? Such a pragmatic, reasonable, and historically typical statement would be an instant political death sentence today.
Quoting 156. flsky:

Interesting video, but I take issue with the British-accented narrator. Last I heard, NASA was American.
Does it really matter?



In space, no one can hear you scream cares how you talk...
163. flsky
Quoting 161. Neapolitan:

Does it really matter?



In space, no one can hear you scream cares how you talk...


Not in the larger sense; I find it irksome.
The trend by Republicans against science began in the early 1980s with pushback against regulation of acid rain, and the "nuclear winter" hypothesis which lead many Republicans to believe scientists were biased politically against them.
Quoting 146. Mediarologist:

Quick question, if I flag a post, is there supposed to be some indication that it did work? Because I see none at all, as opposed to 'plussing' a post which I do see the result of. Also, I think it's funny that the main blog has a flag button. I wonder how many people actually press that one.

There's a number of flags a comment can receive, 5, 10, something like that, and when the number of flags reaches that figure, the comment disappears.
New York Central Park has set their second monthly record for highest average temperature this year. September broke the old record by 1.0 degrees, and November by 0.1 degrees.
Here Are All the Senators Who Do and Don%u2019t Believe in Human-Caused Climate Change

Voted against the amendment (nay%u2014human activities don%u2019t contribute to climate change)

Barrasso, John (R %u2013 WY)
Blunt, Roy (R %u2013 MO)
Boozman, John (R %u2013 AR)
Burr, Richard (R %u2013 NC)
Capito, Shelley Moore (R %u2013 WV)
Cassidy, Bill (R %u2013 LA)
Coats, Daniel (R %u2013 IN)
Cochran, Thad (R %u2013 MS)
Corker, Bob (R %u2013 TN)
Cornyn, John (R %u2013 TX)
Cotton, Tom (R %u2013 AR)
Crapo, Mike (R %u2013 ID)
Cruz, Ted (R %u2013 TX)
Daines, Steve (R %u2013 MT)
Enzi, Michael B. (R %u2013 WY)
Ernst, Joni (R %u2013 IA)
Fischer, Deb (R %u2013 NE)
Flake, Jeff (R %u2013 AZ)
Gardner, Cory (R %u2013 CO)
Grassley, Chuck (R %u2013 IA)
Hatch, Orrin G. (R %u2013 UT)
Heller, Dean (R %u2013 NV)
Hoeven, John (R %u2013 ND)
Inhofe, James M. (R %u2013 OK)
Isakson, Johnny (R %u2013 GA)
Johnson, Ron (R %u2013 WI)
Lankford, James (R %u2013 OK)
Lee, Mike (R %u2013 UT)
McCain, John (R %u2013 AZ)
McConnell, Mitch (R %u2013 KY)
Moran, Jerry (R %u2013 KS)
Murkowski, Lisa (R %u2013 AK)
Paul, Rand (R %u2013 KY)
Perdue, David (R %u2013 GA)
Portman, Rob (R %u2013 OH)
Risch, James E. (R %u2013 ID)
Roberts, Pat (R %u2013 KS)
Rounds, Mike (R %u2013 SD)
Rubio, Marco (R %u2013 FL)
Sasse, Ben (R %u2013 NE)
Scott, Tim (R %u2013 SC)
Sessions, Jeff (R %u2013 AL)
Shelby, Richard C. (R %u2013 AL)
Sullivan, Daniel (R %u2013 AK)
Thune, John (R %u2013 SD)
Tillis, Thom (R %u2013 NC)
Toomey, Patrick J. (R %u2013 PA)
Vitter, David (R %u2013 LA)
Wicker, Roger F. (R %u2013 MS)

Voted for the amendment (yea%u2014
human activities contribute to climate change)

Alexander, Lamar (R %u2013 TN)
Ayotte, Kelly (R %u2013 NH)

Baldwin, Tammy (D %u2013 WI)
Bennet, Michael F. (D %u2013 CO)
Blumenthal, Richard (D %u2013 CT)
Booker, Cory A. (D %u2013 NJ)
Boxer, Barbara (D %u2013 CA)
Brown, Sherrod (D %u2013 OH)
Cantwell, Maria (D %u2013 WA)
Cardin, Benjamin L. (D %u2013 MD)
Carper, Thomas R. (D %u2013 DE)
Casey, Robert P., Jr. (D %u2013 PA)
Collins, Susan M. (R %u2013 ME)
Coons, Christopher A. (D %u2013 DE)
Donnelly, Joe (D %u2013 IN)
Durbin, Richard J. (D %u2013 IL)
Feinstein, Dianne (D %u2013 CA)
Franken, Al (D %u2013 MN)
Gillibrand, Kirsten E. (D %u2013 NY)
Graham, Lindsey (R %u2013 SC)
Heinrich, Martin (D %u2013 NM)
Heitkamp, Heidi (D %u2013 ND)
Hirono, Mazie K. (D %u2013 HI)
Kaine, Tim (D %u2013 VA)
King, Angus S., Jr. (I %u2013 ME)
Kirk, Mark (R %u2013 IL)
Klobuchar, Amy (D %u2013 MN)
Leahy, Patrick J. (D %u2013 VT)
Manchin, Joe, III (D %u2013 WV)
Markey, Edward J. (D %u2013 MA)
McCaskill, Claire (D %u2013 MO)
Menendez, Robert (D %u2013 NJ)
Merkley, Jeff (D %u2013 OR)
Mikulski, Barbara A. (D %u2013 MD)
Murphy, Christopher (D %u2013 CT)
Murray, Patty (D %u2013 WA)
Nelson, Bill (D %u2013 FL)
Peters, Gary (D %u2013 MI)
Reed, Jack (D %u2013 RI)
Sanders, Bernard (I %u2013 VT)
Schatz, Brian (D %u2013 HI)
Schumer, Charles E. (D %u2013 NY)
Shaheen, Jeanne (D %u2013 NH)
Stabenow, Debbie (D %u2013 MI)
Tester, Jon (D %u2013 MT)
Udall, Tom (D %u2013 NM)
Warner, Mark R. (D %u2013 VA)
Warren, Elizabeth (D %u2013 MA)
Whitehouse, Sheldon (D %u2013 RI)
Wyden, Ron (D %u2013 OR)

5 Republicans voted yea-human activities cause climate change
0 Democrats voted against it
50 yea vs. 49 nea

Hey at least some Republicans see the truth and that is progress.
Buffalo New York's latest date for the first measurable snow of the season, December 3 1899. Until this year.

No snow
In Buffalo
Quoting 160. MaineGuy:

1980's too early -- whatever anti-science mindset has taken over the GOP it came later than that. I'd personally put the watershed at the 1994 Contract With America, which ushered in a completely new generation of Republican House members. Since then things have gotten progressively more ideological and partisan, to the point that many of these politicians now seem to believe their own propaganda. Washington (and increasingly the states) is now in perpetual campaign mode, and things are only done with an explicit eye to the next general and, more importantly, primary election in each politician's home district. There's a negative feedback loop going on where each candidate has to be more extreme than the one before or risk being outflanked on the right.

Can you imagine a House GOP member saying, today, something like "I believe in the scientific consensus about global warming and welcome any opportunity to work with the president to find solutions to this problem"? Such a pragmatic, reasonable, and historically typical statement would be an instant political death sentence today.
The Contract with America crowd is as a good a starting point as any but, even there, it was really rhetoric over ideology. Gingrich and Clinton, although they were theoretically on opposite ends of the political spectrum, were really both centrists, and knew that each one had to win some as well as lose some. Both Clinton and Gingrich reported they regularly negotiated about which bills would be introduced to play to the conservatives that elected the Republicans while agreeing not to override a presidential veto. The other side of the coin was legislation Clinton really wanted passed, and that Gingrich, along with Bob Dole and Trent Lott, agreed to shepherd through both houses while appearing to fight the very same bill. Politics has always been about surface appearances and deeper compromise. Nobody ever got everything they wanted, but everyone got something. As you say, we've now arrived at a point where surface appearances are eliminating any chance at compromise. Politicians on both sides of the aisle are believing their own rhetoric when it comes to political action, something we haven't seen since the immediate pre-Civil War days. We all know how that turned out.
Quoting 156. flsky:



Interesting video, but I take issue with the British-accented narrator. Last I heard, NASA was American.

I'm glad you have aired your views about taking issue with the accent of the narrator.
This will surely be noted by NASA and the required remedial modifications to the voice's over implemented! Needless to say the accent of the narrator has no impact whatsoever on the content of the video.

Given the large number of work seekers in the USA, maybe job applications could be considered and possibly successful applicants will be a joy to our ears in future versions of NASA's video releases.

Its all a bit like the Tower of Babble with voices now-a-daze! First you get your own accent, then the locals, then the nationals, then the accents from who knows where.
Then one day, or night you realise its such a good experience to listen in a language that you at least understand.
A lot of people on here struggle to write in English (but they achieve a reasonable result to say the least,) which you might like to call "American" but they do and most of us understand them but how many people on here could hold their own in German or Spanish or Portuguese? Let alone Japanese and Swahili?

As long as the message gets across then its not important if its in the "Presidents," "English!" Or some backwater accent from a long forgotten outpost.
If you could hear my spoken English from the ghettos of outer urban Manchester, then maybe the woman on the narration would be music to the ears!
Or maybe we need to invent a spoken standard accent?
Quoting 159. Neapolitan:

Nonsense. The "both sides do it" fallacy was proven wrong years ago, yet some insist on clinging to it. The fact of the matter is, both sides absolutely do NOT do it. Obama--especially at first--bent over beyond backwards to work with the GOP. But that party publicly stated that their Number One priority was to block Obama, and they've done that since. With a vengeance. They've stonewalled, filibustered, stalled, and lollygagged. They've taken extreme positions just so he wouldn't have a "win".

Let’s just say it: The Republicans are the problem. (Washington Post)("We have been studying Washington politics and Congress for more than 40 years, and never have we seen them this dysfunctional. In our past writings, we have criticized both parties when we believed it was warranted. Today, however, we have no choice but to acknowledge that the core of the problem lies with the Republican Party.")

Gridlock in Congress? Blame the GOP (CNN) ("For many years, journalists and scholars have lamented the rise of partisan polarization on Capitol Hill. The number of moderates has vastly declined and the number of bills that receive bipartisan support has greatly diminished. The usual culprits range from the advent of the 24-hour news cycle to changing demographics. But now observers are starting to note that both parties are not equally to blame, especially in recent years.")

GOP Most Responsible for Political Dysfunction (American University) (“Republicans have become a radical insurgency—ideologically extreme, contemptuous of the inherited policy regime, scornful of compromise, unpersuaded by the conventional understanding of facts, evidence and science, and dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition,” he said. “The evidence of this asymmetry is overwhelming.”)

OBAMA RESPONDS TO MYTH THAT BOTH PARTIES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR CURRENT GRIDLOCK (The Moderate Voice) ("You’ll hear if you watch the nightly news or you read the newspapers that, well, there’s gridlock, Congress is broken, approval ratings for Congress are terrible. And there’s a tendency to say, a plague on both your houses. But the truth of the matter is that the problem in Congress is very specific. We have a group of folks in the Republican Party who have taken over who are so ideologically rigid, who are so committed to an economic theory that says if folks at the top do very well then everybody else is somehow going to do well; who deny the science of climate change; who don’t think making investments in early childhood education makes sense; who have repeatedly blocked raising a minimum wage so if you work full-time in this country you’re not living in poverty; who scoff at the notion that we might have a problem with women not getting paid for doing the same work that men are doing.")

There's a Reason Voters Don't Blame Republicans for Congressional Gridlock (Mother Jones)("It's all fairly remarkable. McConnell has correctly grasped that if you sabotage the government, most voters won't really know how or why it happened. They'll just know that things are a mess and they'll get peevish about it. And when they look around for someone to blame, it will be the party in power.")


I could not agree more. The GOP has gone so far to the Right that it has had the effect of making typically centrist positions seem far Left. Its distorted our whole political discourse.
Quoting 170. BaltimoreBrian:

Cause Central Africa: Lake Chad At the Centre of Great Concern

and effect? A triple suicide bombing at a market on an island in Lake Chad on Saturday killed at least 27 people and injured 90 others, said security officials.
Cause: People made fun of his beard

And effect? 14 dead in mass shooting.

The cause in neither case was the reason for the effect.
Quoting 171. NMPhotog:



I could not agree more. The GOP has gone so far to the Right that it has had the effect of making typically centrist positions seem far Left. Its distorted our whole political discourse.
I agree that the Republicans have dug their heels in so far they can't find their shoes any longer. I disagree that when Obama was blessed with control of both houses for his first four years in office, the Republicans were still responsible for the same inaction we've seen in the last three years. Both things have been equally bad for the country, which is ultimately all I care about, not any party.
I disagree. With the loss of 80% of Lake Chad and the collapse of the Lake Chad fishery that supported tens of thousands of families poverty and hopelessness have become much worse in the Lake Chad basin--and while Lake Chad shrank, Boko Haram grew.
Quoting 154. bappit:

Saw this on CNN. The 'fairy tale' energy island

Ignore the stupid click bait title. Lots of good stuff.

You get two stories for the price of one! Can't beat that. One is the video on that page and the other is the news article. They are not the same story. Click now! This offer won't last long.

Great article!

"People (in Denmark) think it makes a difference what you do," she said. "And it makes a difference whether you do something or not. You're not sitting passively waiting for somebody else, or for the politicians, to do it. That is something that hopefully could inspire others."


Quoting 169. PlazaRed:


I'm glad you have aired your views about taking issue with the accent of the narrator.
This will surely be noted by NASA and the required remedial modifications to the voice's over implemented! Needless to say the accent of the narrator has no impact whatsoever on the content of the video.

Given the large number of work seekers in the USA, maybe job applications could be considered and possibly successful applicants will be a joy to our ears in future versions of NASA's video releases.

Its all a bit like the Tower of Babble with voices now-a-daze! First you get your own accent, then the locals, then the nationals, then the accents from who knows where.
Then one day, or night you realise its such a good experience to listen in a language that you at least understand.
A lot of people on here struggle to write in English (but they achieve a reasonable result to say the least,) which you might like to call "American" but they do and most of us understand them but how many people on here could hold their own in German or Spanish or Portuguese? Let alone Japanese and Swahili?

As long as the message gets across then its not important if its in the "Presidents," "English!" Or some backwater accent from a long forgotten outpost.
If you could hear my spoken English from the ghettos of outer urban Manchester, then maybe the woman on the narration would be music to the ears!
Or maybe we need to invent a spoken standard accent?

I really think Manuel from "Fawlty Towers" is the ideal voiceover guy for most of what appears on video. I mean, how many times do we need more than "¿Que?" to understand what the message is? :-)
Quoting 126. Envoirment:

Storm Desmond is battering the UK, with a lot of amber warnings up for parts of Scotland/England/Wales and even red warnings up for flooding (the highest level). ...

Best wishes to our friends with the "English (or scottish or whatever) accent"! Maybe a new rain record in the making in the UK this night, according to BBC-weather video:

Red weather warning issued
BBC, 5 December 2015 Last updated at 18:19
The Met Office has issued its highest possible severe weather warning for Cumbria and parts of southwest Scotland, as Storm Desmond continues to impact the UK with gales and heavy rain.
The red warning urges the public to 'take precautionary action and remain extra vigilant,' as the severe weather poses a risk to life.
Across northern England and southern Scotland, there are further amber and yellow severe weather warnings in force for the wet and stormy conditions, with gusts of wind between 70-80mph possible over the coming hours.
The Environment Agency has a number of severe flood warnings in place.
The main impacts of the storm are expected to cease by Sunday morning.


Storm Desmond: major incident declared as police urge people to evacuate homes
Red weather warnings issued for several regions, with roads and rail links closed as high winds and heavy rainfall trigger landslides, flooding and traffic chaos
The Guardian, Chris Johnston, Mike Glover and agencies, Saturday 5 December 2015 20.29 GMT
Thousands of homes across northern England and Scotland are under threat of flooding in the wake of Storm Desmond, with Cumbria police declaring a major incident.
The Met Office issued red weather warnings for several regions following heavy rainfall and high winds, with amber warnings in effect for areas including Yorkshire and Humber, north-east England, Strathclyde, and Lothian and Borders. Parts of the Pennines are expecting gusts of up to 80mph on Saturday night.
Rainfall of 2.4in to 3.9in (60mm to 100mm) is likely in many amber zones, with some mountainous areas recording more than 5.9in (150mm) over a 30-hour period. ...



Saved current airmass loop (last 12h).


Precipitation in the last 48h in mm.

Edit: our WU-commenter mitthbevnuruodo lives in the affected area (North Wales - where the 132mm are shown in purple). Hope she is safe!
Tonight's launch of an Atlas5 to resupply the ISS has been scrubbed until Sunday at 2144 due to wind constraint violation. Winds are up enough they aren't even trying.
Quoting 176. BaltimoreBrian:

I disagree. With the lost of 80% of Lake Chad and the collapse of the Lake Chad fishery that supported tens of thousands of families poverty and hopelessness have become much worse in the Lake Chad basin--and while Lake Chad shrank, Boko Haram grew.
Chad has been a country engaged in civil war, war with its neighbors, and factional violence since 1965. It's been ruled by the same brutal dictator for the past 25 years. Slavery is still commonly practiced in parts of the country, and it's consistently ranked as the most corrupt country in the world. The Chadian government, such as it is, has never had control of the country as a whole since 1962. Boko Haram is a latecomer on the scene of 50 years of sectarian violence.
Quoting 167. BaltimoreBrian:
Buffalo New York's latest date for the first measurable snow of the season, December 3 1899. Until this year.

No snow
In Buffalo
Just communicated with my (real blood-related) cousin who lives in Rhode Island- they have seen no snow yet, either.
"Glances through comment section" Okaaaaaaay well I'll stay away for the rest of the night.
Quoting 153. sar2401:

I've seen no evidence the Reagan was anti science. A lot of the space and defense technology we have today was forged during his eight years. Almost the entire space shuttle program was funded during his administration. We didn't have to rely on the Russians for a space station, as we do today. He raised taxes more than any other non-war president, and was responsible for massive increases in the size of the departments of Education and Energy, hardly what one would expect from an anti science president. The first Bush was responsible for the SALT agreements limiting nuclear weapons and expansion of the EPA and Clean Air amendments. He also maneuvered a tax bill through Congress in the face of fierce opposition that provided money for many of the science agencies that wouldn't have been funded otherwise, and it probably cost him reelection. It was really the election of George W Bush that saw the ideological lines harden, and a lot of the anti science rhetoric we have today came from that period. The past seven years of the Obama administration hasn't seen an improvement in the funding of science agencies, even with control of both houses for his first four years. The rhetoric changed, but the results haven't. What I've seen is two presidents over the past 15 years with neither the desire nor ability to learn the art of compromise. To paraphrase another politician, compromise is the mother's milk of politics. Without it, nothing gets done, since ideology is all we have left. Unfortunately, none of the candidates from either party give me any hope that the art of compromise might once more blossom from the White House,


True. Reagan did help advance Science. However it was not for the sake of Science. What he did was for the sake of scaring the U.S.S.R. into believing that we could swat down anything that it wished to loft into the air at us. Congress funds everything, including the space shuttle missions. If you mean that Reagan advanced Science by not vetoing this, then you may have a point. Taxes are a side issue, unless you can show that he raised taxes for the advancement of Science, for the sake of Science, and for the protection of the environment. Increasing the size of the Education and Energy departments is not, in of itself, an advancement of Science and the protection of the environment. You would need to show that his purpose for doing this was for the, at least partially, advancement of Science and the protection of the environment. You are largely cherry picking a military goal that Reagan advanced and it was not for the sake of Science.

I could easily argue that the SALT agreement was largely for economic reasons and propaganda purposes. A nuclear arsenal is very expensive to maintain. Reducing the size of the arsenal lowers the cost of maintaining it. This also gave both countries the ability to say that the world is now safer from the human race being wiped out by an exchange of nuclear warheads. The fact remains today that you could take the remaining stockpile of nuclear weapons of either the U.S. or Russia and still wipe out the human race many times over. The threat of such an exchange has not been reduced and the human race is no safer now from being wiped out from such an exchange than it was then. How is this the an advancement of Science and the protection of the environment?

Bush I did not stand in the way of Science and did help to further the protection of the environment. However you missed a key word that I used. I said that Republican leadership started its attack on Science and the protection of the environment in 1980s. The 1990s was when the real war on both of these began. Does Tom DeLay or Newt Gingritch ring any bells? Do I need to list their attempts to attack Science, the EPA, The Clean Air Act and The Clean Water Act. Along with this they went after OSHA and nearly every regulation that they viewed as being too costly to business and "jobs". Shall we continue on to this century and what the Republican leadership has at least tried to do to hobble scientific knowledge and environmental protections? They are even rewriting the text books to give their world views on History, Science and the environment.

You may also falsely believe that I am saying that people that are aligned with the Republican Party are doing all of this. I made certain that I only expressed this as being the Republican leadership.
Deleted double post.
Quoting 183. washingtonian115:

"Glances through comment section" Okaaaaaaay well I'll stay away for the rest of the night.
Same here.
It has just been continuous today........


8.43" at West Kendall-Tamiami AP today, wettest day since obs began in 06/1998. Previous wettest was 8.36" on 10/08/2011.


Link
Quoting 167. BaltimoreBrian:

Buffalo New York's latest date for the first measurable snow of the season, December 3 1899. Until this year.

No snow
In Buffalo
not until after new years day
Quoting 178. sar2401:

I really think Manuel from "Fawlty Towers" is the ideal voiceover guy for most of what appears on video. I mean, how many times do we need more than "¿Que?" to understand what the message is? :-)

Strangely the Spanish claim that Manuel is Portuguese in order to justify his simpleton attitudes!
Meanwhile back at base camp here, deep in the heartland of southern Andalucía, Spain. I ceaselessly strive for some faint glimmer of comprehension regarding the significance of climate change and global warming in the face of the "necessity for burning endlessly agricultural wastes"!
Not sure if anyone has been noticing, but after already very heavy rains in southeast Florida, there heave been more very heavy rains today, some places have had rainfall events that are a huge deal even for a tropical system in the summer rainy season, but for a moist onshore flow in normally a dry month in this area, it's pretty amazing.
Also, if you were looking at Miami radar storm totals, you'd think a few spots are getting 1-2 inches, but the Miami storm total is underestimating rainfall at level of 2-4 times as less as actual totals

For example, rainfall estimates near Miami international airport are about 0.5 or less, but Miami international has reported 2.85 so far

Link

At Miami Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, the estimates are about 2.0 to 2.5 inches, but the actual rainfall at this location has been amazingly heavy, they've had 8.38 so far today, and 2.54 this last hour, and 5.14 in just 3 hours!

Link

Homestead AFB has had an estimate around 1.5 inches but they've recorded another amazing total of 3.82 so far today.

Link

This is good example of why you want to look at station reports and not assume radar estimates are correct.

Some places in southeast Florida have had over 10 inches of rain so far over the past few days, amazing stuff.
No snow yet in South-Central New Hampshire and I see well above average temperatures in the forecast for the next couple weeks.
Quoting 174. sar2401:

I agree that the Republicans have dug their heels in so far they can't find their shoes any longer. I disagree that when Obama was blessed with control of both houses for his first four years in office, the Republicans were still responsible for the same inaction we've seen in the last three years. Both things have been equally bad for the country, which is ultimately all I care about, not any party.


Depends how you define control of both houses. Once Scott Brown was sworn in in February of 2010 -- one year after Barack Obama was sworn in as President -- the Democrats no longer had the votes to override a Republican filibuster. So no, Obama was not blessed with control of both houses for his first four years in office.
Quoting 164. BaltimoreBrian:

The trend by Republicans against science began in the early 1980s with pushback against regulation of acid rain, and the "nuclear winter" hypothesis which lead many Republicans to believe scientists were biased politically against them. There's a number of flags a comment can receive, 5, 10, something like that, and when the number of flags reaches that figure, the comment disappears.


I think the problem with politics in the U.S. is that often appears that each side acts like other can never be right about anything, so that they sometimes stubbornly become unwilling to except the obvious. The Republicans and Democrats can each unbelievably stubborn and blind about certain issues because if the other side is all for it, then it can't be right.

As a conservative myself, I can attest to the fact that I was once in complete opposition to that humans are warming the climate up until about my junior or senior year in high school. The main reason for this was because since all democrats/liberals believe in it for the most part, I just assumed it must be a political bias being pushed as an excuse to add unjustified tax burdens to businesses and over regulate, and so I on purposely didn't even bother to investigate and seek answers. I think this is the case for many Republicans in government as well as citizens/voters.

But at some point, I just decided to forget everything political about global warming, and just investigate the scientific research about it, after about 6 months of searching, it hit me like a rock to the fact that evidence and facts are overwhelmingly in support that human activity is warming the climate.


For that reason, I like to remind people that the human mind is funny, and we are masters at deceiving our selves, so always question the motives for why we believe what we do. I think all humans have things that they believe that they would be shocked to find don't line up factually all. We have to be careful not to assume we are seekers of facts and truth, because we can be blinded by the idea that we are. I urge that we all be willing to be open to consider others thoughts, positions, and opinions. I find myself being proven wrong all the time resulting in reconsideration of my approach and position on issues, and I don't think I'm any less human than anyone else.
Quoting 139. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



No one has ever been able to offer any Science that would support the deniers. This is exactly why the talking points they make now are even more ludicrous than before. They are running out of straws to grasp at. The problem for us is that they may have already proven successful enough with their misinformation, distractions and lies to have "won" their position.


They already won.

No, I don't mean today's idiots and morons like Watts and our resident deniers. These guys are just the last squeeze of the udder. I'm talking about the original cadre who set up the whole "denier" movement 3 or 4 decades ago (fossil fuel companies). Their plan was brilliant from a business perspective, ran like clockwork, and they got everything they wanted.

You see, back then as scientists started to get a better idea of what the consequences would be from a human induced warming world, fossil fuel companies had their own scientists look into the matter. When their own scientists came back and said that this was going to be a problem, that steps would need to be taken as soon as possible, and that it was not going to be cheap, those companies obviously weren't happy.

In an effort to protect their profits, they developed a strategy based on the same model that was used for leaded gasoline, asbestos, etc. Climate signals take decades to show up. Their own scientists predicted that it would take about 30 years before significant signs would appear. Spread FUD, misdirect, obfuscate and you can continue the profit gravy train for at least thirty years.

Here's the brilliant part. When it gets to the point where FUD can no longer keep the hounds at bay, the problem will be "too big to solve". It will require government intervention. The fossil fuel companies won't have to pay for it, the taxpayers will. Privatize the profits, socialize the losses.

It worked better than they could have imagined. Serious action has been delayed for 35 years. The problem is "too big to solve". And now it takes a conglomeration of world governments to try and address the issues. Even better, they have entire political parties eating their BS and doing their work for them.

Everything past this point is just icing on the cake.
Quoting 182. aquak9:

Just communicated with my (real blood-related) cousin who lives in Rhode Island- they have seen no snow yet, either.

No snow here either "9" in fact its about 17/c and clear blue skies which is about as far from what I was expecting as possible.
The bad weather has been terrorising the north of the UK over the last few hours with all sorts of flooding and gales etc.

Nothing to moan about here, reservoirs full and no heating bills, means "1" none of my domestic funds going out to the utilities. "2" no extra gases going into the air adding to the pollution and CO2 big rise etc.

Then again I suppose its all down to some aspect of global warming?
yeah, but Plaza- "3" means my broccoli won't make big heads, it's only going to bloom, due to the 80ºplus we've been having here in NE Florida.

BUT- I think your lack of expensive heating costs is more important than my lack of broccoli. I am happy for you.

:)
Quoting 197. aquak9:

yeah, but Plaza- "3" means my broccoli won't make big heads, it's only going to bloom, due to the 80ºplus we've been having here in NE Florida.

BUT- I think your lack of expensive heating costs is more important than my lack of broccoli. I am happy for you.

:)

What we found out when we invaded southern Europe, is that you have to simulate as best as possible the climate/ water input you want.
This needs either a cover against frosts, or added water when there is drought.
Look into the needs of the plant was how one of my Spanish teachers taught me and then give the plant what it expects not what you think it should have.
So if it needs cold expose it at night and if it needs droughts cover it in rains. If it needs warmth, cover it in the day and leave it covered at night and if it needs humidity then use a plastic sheet to keep in the moisture.

At the end of the day I wish I hade a garden once again to experience the wonders of nature but for now I have a small house plant in a pot on top of my refrigerator.
Then again, its about time to go back out into the wilds and start planting again, as the reliance on shops is a pain.
Repost

Quoting 88. wunderkidcayman:

So looking ahead into the rest of December and into January

I'd say next week looks mild and or warm
And next 2 to 3 weeks going into January looks to be getting cold

Looking at the state of the El Niño(very strong but possibly peaked and now decreasing), the NAO(currently in +NAO expected to increase slightly before dropping off and into -NAO by the 16 Dec going forwards) and the AO(currently +AO expected to do slight up and downs before dropping off and into -AO by the 16 Dec going forwards) and (their forecast)

I suspect the South half of ContUS and East coast should eventually get into a "cold winter state" by the time we get into the Christmas/New Years Holidays into the rest of January
Quoting 89. wunderkidcayman:



Looking at the latest from GFS for the 21st December
This would seem to more or less match up

Next week = Warm and/or Mild



Week after next = Warm and/or mild becoming Cold



Christmas week = Cold for South and East


* Disclaimer Subject to changes
Quoting 91. Gearsts:


Quoting 189. PlazaRed:


Strangely the Spanish claim that Manuel is Portuguese in order to justify his simpleton attitudes!
Meanwhile back at base camp here, deep in the heartland of southern Andalucía, Spain. I ceaselessly strive for some faint glimmer of comprehension regarding the significance of climate change and global warming in the face of the "necessity for burning endlessly agricultural wastes"!
Things may change there if the word gets out that the waste can earn money. The leftovers of the peanut crop here used to be burned until feed companies discovered that the remains can be processed into pretty good animal feed. Cotton residue was usually burned in fields after harvest to reduce boll weevil infestation, and it was tough to breathe here for a couple weeks after harvest. Now most growers shred the stalks in the field and leave them to dessicate for a couple of weeks. The desiccation helps kill the boll weevil larvae, and our friends, the fire ants, help polish off most of the rest. I knew there was some reason those things exist except for biting the snot out of me. After a couple of weeks, the fields are deep plowed, which kills the rest of the larvae, prevents compaction, and enriches the soil. It's rare to see a field burn now, even though there's no law preventing it.

The biggest problem here now is burning the pine plantations. They do that to reduce weeds and bugs, allowing the pines to grow straighter with fewer bottom limbs. It apparently doesn't injure the pines, even though their bark is pretty charred. At least it's not all done at the same time. Every time I see one of those smoke columns, my California brain wants to reach for the radio and report it to dispatch. People here have a good chuckle about that.
Quoting 179. barbamz:


Best wishes to our friends with the "English (or scottish or whatever) accent"! Maybe a new rain record in the making in the UK this night, according to BBC-weather video:

Red weather warning issued
BBC, 5 December 2015 Last updated at 18:19
The Met Office has issued its highest possible severe weather warning for Cumbria and parts of southwest Scotland, as Storm Desmond continues to impact the UK with gales and heavy rain.
The red warning urges the public to 'take precautionary action and remain extra vigilant,' as the severe weather poses a risk to life.
Across northern England and southern Scotland, there are further amber and yellow severe weather warnings in force for the wet and stormy conditions, with gusts of wind between 70-80mph possible over the coming hours.
The Environment Agency has a number of severe flood warnings in place.
The main impacts of the storm are expected to cease by Sunday morning.


Storm Desmond: major incident declared as police urge people to evacuate homes
Red weather warnings issued for several regions, with roads and rail links closed as high winds and heavy rainfall trigger landslides, flooding and traffic chaos
The Guardian, Chris Johnston, Mike Glover and agencies, Saturday 5 December 2015 20.29 GMT
Thousands of homes across northern England and Scotland are under threat of flooding in the wake of Storm Desmond, with Cumbria police declaring a major incident.
The Met Office issued red weather warnings for several regions following heavy rainfall and high winds, with amber warnings in effect for areas including Yorkshire and Humber, north-east England, Strathclyde, and Lothian and Borders. Parts of the Pennines are expecting gusts of up to 80mph on Saturday night.
Rainfall of 2.4in to 3.9in (60mm to 100mm) is likely in many amber zones, with some mountainous areas recording more than 5.9in (150mm) over a 30-hour period. ...



Saved current airmass loop (last 12h).


Precipitation in the last 48h in mm.

Edit: our WU-commenter mitthbevnuruodo lives in the affected area (North Wales - where the 132mm are shown in purple). Hope she is safe!




Hi Barb! Well, that big big rainfall total is up in the mountains, where it is about the wettest place in the country any given year. Every year see it get pretty floody along the rivers, but don't think there's too many low lying homes up there. It's been rainier than normal storms, with extra flooding than the usual, but I think the Lake District is having more problems than Snowdonia. Though, worst off actually seems to be in the Isle of Anglesey, but they often miss the worst rain of storms being off from the mountains. We've been in Manchester all day, and it wasn't raining much at all, just really windy. But was odd, as the radar was showing reds and oranges above the whole area of Manchester, but as I said, was barely any rain. So don't know if was just very cold cloud tops???

Thanks for asking though :) We've been being made up for having mild weather through autumn though! Been stormy and stormy with a side of storm as of late, and looking to stay that way, I think Yonzabam was noting that too, though Scotland probably even worse off!
Quoting 190. Jedkins01:

Not sure if anyone has been noticing, but after already very heavy rains in southeast Florida, there heave been more very heavy rains today, some places have had rainfall events that are a huge deal even for a tropical system in the summer rainy season, but for a moist onshore flow in normally a dry month in this area, it's pretty amazing.
Also, if you were looking at Miami radar storm totals, you'd think a few spots are getting 1-2 inches, but the Miami storm total is underestimating rainfall at level of 2-4 times as less as actual totals

For example, rainfall estimates near Miami international airport are about 0.5 or less, but Miami international has reported 2.85 so far

Link

At Miami Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, the estimates are about 2.0 to 2.5 inches, but the actual rainfall at this location has been amazingly heavy, they've had 8.38 so far today, and 2.54 this last hour, and 5.14 in just 3 hours!

Link

Homestead AFB has had an estimate around 1.5 inches but they've recorded another amazing total of 3.82 so far today.

Link

This is good example of why you want to look at station reports and not assume radar estimates are correct.

Some places in southeast Florida have had over 10 inches of rain so far over the past few days, amazing stuff.

The most amazing thing to me is all that rain is confined only to SE Florida. The rest of the Southeast, even most of the Eastern US and Canada, is clear as a bell. The same front that passed through here dry has stalled over the Florida Strait and is producing 10 inches of rain in Miami. Another example of weird
Florida weather.
There goes another oil platform and at least 32 workers.. 42 were rescued. This is an offshore oil platform operated by Azerbaijan's state energy company SOCAR that caught fire in the Caspian Sea today. Near 60% of SOCAR's production was run through that platform and has come to a halt. The fire got started when a gas line was damaged by high winds in a storm. The storm also hampered rescue efforts as well as caused another three to go missing from a different platform.


Had some heavy but fleeting showers in Melbourne this evening.

Today was NWS Skywarn Recognition Day. Good turn out in MLB. Our hams have won it 7 out of the last 11 years including the last 4 years in a row. We'll see soon enough if it's going to be five years in a row.
Quoting 206. sar2401:

The most amazing thing to me is all that rain is confined only to SE Florida. The rest of the Southeast, even most of the Eastern US and Canada, is clear as a bell. The same front that passed through here dry has stalled over the Florida Strait and is producing 10 inches of rain in Miami. Another example of weird
Florida weather.


Just weird Florida weather? Or does that include most of the eastern US and Canada?
The Grothar families favorite Christmas song...

Yogi Yorgesson Yingle Bells
Quoting 210. GeoffreyWPB:

The Grothar families favorite Christmas song...

Yogi Yorgesson Yingle Bells


I have a British accent and you know it. Yumping Yimminy!

Still raining by you? It hasn't stopped in days.
Quoting 204. sar2401:

Things may change there if the word gets out that the waste can earn money. The leftovers of the peanut crop here used to be burned until feed companies discovered that the remains can be processed into pretty good animal feed. Cotton residue was usually burned in fields after harvest to reduce boll weevil infestation, and it was tough to breathe here for a couple weeks after harvest. Now most growers shred the stalks in the field and leave them to dessicate for a couple of weeks. The desiccation helps kill the boll weevil larvae, and our friends, the fire ants, help polish off most of the rest. I knew there was some reason those things exist except for biting the snot out of me. After a couple of weeks, the fields are deep plowed, which kills the rest of the larvae, prevents compaction, and enriches the soil. It's rare to see a field burn now, even though there's no law preventing it.

The biggest problem here now is burning the pine plantations. They do that to reduce weeds and bugs, allowing the pines to grow straighter with fewer bottom limbs. It apparently doesn't injure the pines, even though their bark is pretty charred. At least it's not all done at the same time. Every time I see one of those smoke columns, my California brain wants to reach for the radio and report it to dispatch. People here have a good chuckle about that.


I thought the Boll Weevil was eradicated from the U.S. in 2010 with the only area still at risk of reinfestation, a strip along the mexican border. This effort began in the 80s. I read about the eradication when I googled about the insect to find out its winter hardiness limits
There was a considerable effort to try to grow Cotton in the lower midwest in the 1860s. This failed. Cotton just needs too much heat. No such effort is being made now and it would be interesting to see if it could be grown further north now than in the mid 19'th century. I've grown seedlings I got from USDA shows in June and they did not make more than a few bolls here in DC.

Quoting 197. aquak9:

yeah, but Plaza- "3" means my broccoli won't make big heads, it's only going to bloom, due to the 80plus we've been having here in NE Florida.

BUT- I think your lack of expensive heating costs is more important than my lack of broccoli. I am happy for you.

:)


Just picked my first volleyball sized head today Dec 5 here in DC suburbs. Best broccoli of the year, very sweet.
Risk of course is deep (below -5C) freezes and heavy crushing snow. I expect the entire crop to mature by about Dec 15-20.

The December 5 first snow rule (worked more than half of the years in the first decade of the 21'st century) has failed again. No hope of snow for a week or more.
Quoting 206. sar2401:

The most amazing thing to me is all that rain is confined only to SE Florida. The rest of the Southeast, even most of the Eastern US and Canada, is clear as a bell. The same front that passed through here dry has stalled over the Florida Strait and is producing 10 inches of rain in Miami. Another example of weird
Florida weather.


I can count off on my hand how many cold fronts have actually made it through the state in the last few years without stalling, dying off, and leaving mild temperatures and cloud cover. I had thought this year would be different with such a potent El Nino event going on, but it's even warmer, cloudier, and more mild so far this Fall than ever.
This looks familiar...


Quoting 216. CybrTeddy:



I can count off on my hand how many cold fronts have actually made it through the state in the last few years without stalling, dying off, and leaving mild temperatures and cloud cover. I had thought this year would be different with such a potent El Nino event going on, but it's even warmer, cloudier, and more mild so far this Fall than ever.

Glad to at least see the good news about the lack of tornado fatalities. Here near Orlando, we have had a good number of rain showers come through in the past week or so, yet have had 0.1" at most during this time period. We haven't had any weather I would consider hot for more than 3 weeks, but it has been very mild to warm. We have only had a handful of nights the whole fall in the 50s even. I remember Novembers where 50s were the norm and lows in the 40s were fairly frequent. The weather here lately has reminded me of the weather in Hilo, HI this time of year.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 15h15 hours ago
We are likely in the peak of this year's Super El Nino. This El Nino will be recognized for years to come.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 16h16 hours ago
Notice all the sub-surface cooling going on in the central Pacific? A new upwelling oceanic kelvin wave has formed
In a Pacific season that won't quit, the GFS continues to highlight the formation of a tropical cyclone in the central Pacific this upcoming week. In fact, the 0z GFS is the most bullish run so far, depicting a high-end Category 2 hurricane.

Quoting 213. Grothar:



I have a British accent and you know it. Yumping Yimminy!

Still raining by you? It hasn't stopped in days.


Lol

I have a "British accent" too... Well mine is more Scottish lol
Quoting 219. Gearsts:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 15h15 hours ago
We are likely in the peak of this year's Super El Nino. This El Nino will be recognized for years to come.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 16h16 hours ago
Notice all the sub-surface cooling going on in the central Pacific? A new upwelling oceanic kelvin wave has formed



I did state that El Niño has most likely peaked and now starting in decline
Quoting 213. Grothar:



I have a British accent and you know it. Yumping Yimminy!

Still raining by you? It hasn't stopped in days.


Gro - Have a "holly jolly Christmas"- "it's the best time of the year" - pulls out my best accent
Did the United States also have any kind of record low activity for convective thunderstorms or more frequent concurrence of stagnating high pressure systems that would help explain the record low mortality?
Happy holidays to all.

I got a question concerning climate change.

Does the global warning can affect the number of hurricane or intensity in the atlantic zone in the future?

Last decade we got a low activity in the atlantic sector cause El nino event. it is possible once El Nino down could intensify more in Atlantic?

Thank you in advance.
Quoting 230. Claudette1234:

Happy holidays to all.

I got a question concerning climate change.

Does the global warning can affect the number of hurricane or intensity in the atlantic zone in the future?

Last decade we got a low activity in the atlantic sector cause El nino event. it is possible once El Nino down could intensify more in Atlantic?

Thank you in advance.


Here's a great link to explore which covers a lot of the more recent publications on the topic.

At the moment, there is no discernible trend in hurricane frequency, and there is evidence to suggest the strongest of the storms (Cat 4 and 5) are getting stronger.
ESPI is rebounding fast. It was around .56 for it's recent low in the last few weeks. It's already back up to 1.29.
Holy Moly! Last evenings comments sure are entertaining. Enlightening too.
Good morning and afternoon, everyone. It looks to be a beautiful day in west central Louisiana.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Pain perdu (French toast) also smothered in powdered sugar, broiled boudin patties, bacon and cheddar eggs Sardou, toast or bagels with creole cream cheese, cheesy grits with shrimp, crawfish, cheese and mushroom omelets, scrambled eggs with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, big fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, apricot honey oatmeal, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Creole coffee. Enjoy!
Quoting 233. PensacolaDoug:

Holy Moly! Last evenings comments sure are entertaining. Enlightening too.

So what's your thoughts? Do you think the NAO will actually go negative as modeled again this week? You in the El Nino has peaked camp or not? Shocked someone could keep up a decent British while residing in SFL?

Rain should be coming to at-least the north half of California this coming week. Think the south half will be so lucky or will all this shift north like the recent trend has shown..


1 NAO will go negative 4th week of Dec
2 El Nino has peaked.
3 No. Speech habits are hard to break especially if you don't want to break them.
4 The south will get ripped.
Quoting 231. Naga5000:



Here's a great link to explore which covers a lot of the more recent publications on the topic.

At the moment, there is no discernible trend in hurricane frequency, and there is evidence to suggest the strongest of the storms (Cat 4 and 5) are getting stronger.


In addition, the tropical season appears to be trending towards a longer duration (storms appearing earlier and ending later). A simple "back of the envelope" calculation I did a while ago showed that the first storms were appearing two weeks earlier and the last storms appearing about two weeks later on average, giving an average increase of approximately a month to the typical hurricane season. (I didn't do a formal error analysis though, so take the result with a grain of salt.)

Easy enough to reproduce by taking the NOAA tropical storm data and throwing it into Excel. But in general, when it comes to modeling the smaller the details you want to model the harder it is to model. It's much easier to predict how much rain on average a set of storms will drop over a state than it is to figure out precisely how much you will get at your house, for example.

Right now the presence of tropical storms in climate model data is mostly inferred. Most climate models aren't run at resolutions high enough for anything resembling a proper cyclogenesis model (even 1/4 degree resolution means a tropical storm only takes up a handful of grid cells). So in general the error bars are quite wide when it comes specifically to tropical cyclone behavior 100 years out.
Quoting 216. CybrTeddy:



I can count off on my hand how many cold fronts have actually made it through the state in the last few years without stalling, dying off, and leaving mild temperatures and cloud cover. I had thought this year would be different with such a potent El Nino event going on, but it's even warmer, cloudier, and more mild so far this Fall than ever.


Go back to the winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11 if you want cold fronts. Also El Nino year 1957-58.
BTW we're just barely into winter yet.
NASA's model is also showing that storm some models have been picking up on. It's kept moving it more right. Now it has it getting trapped under a building high and going somewhat subtropical looking before getting sheared to death quickly. It does peak looking a little better than posted here. Picked this frame since it showed the tornadoes might not be entirely done this year. Heavy rain when conditions are right has been the rule though. Extreme El Nino seeds the atmosphere for extreme rain.


Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.
Quoting 220. TropicalAnalystwx13:

In a Pacific season that won't quit, the GFS continues to highlight the formation of a tropical cyclone in the central Pacific this upcoming week. In fact, the 0z GFS is the most bullish run so far, depicting a high-end Category 2 hurricane.




Where i click to see this model???
I live in NE Fl along the St Johns river and I have been watching the river get higher and higher with some local flooding for the past couple of months. Now all of the docks are under water. It has also been very windy everyday for the past couple of months. We have also had very little rain and it has been very warm. Can anyone tell me why this is happening? Thanks in advance.
Quoting 242. pablosyn:

Really impressive. Could be the strongest storm in December month
Quoting 230. Claudette1234:

Happy holidays to all.

I got a question concerning climate change.

Does the global warning can affect the number of hurricane or intensity in the atlantic zone in the future?

Last decade we got a low activity in the atlantic sector cause El nino event. it is possible once El Nino down could intensify more in Atlantic?

Thank you in advance.


The Atlantic Hurricane season has a short term (Approximately 50 year cycle.) Just a quick review of the majors landing for the last 125 years shows this. For the South East Texas coast it is almost like clock work. The warm and cold swings along with it.

I.E. The town of Orange was named for the Orange groves that grew along the Sabine river near the turn of the 19th to 20th century. By 1940 they were gone. You also see that around the turn of the 19th to 20th century, the really terrible hurricanes that lashed the South East Texas coast. Then there is a bit of a quite period, then you get Audrey and Carla just after the mid century mark, then roughly 50 years later, Rita and Ike. (Surprisingly the origination's of the respective hurricanes were flipped from the destructive methods. Ike was a home grow storm that wiped out huge areas with flood waters, and Carla did the same, but was a Cape Verde storm, and Rita was a Cape Verde storm, but Audry formed in the Bay of Campeche. )

Using this INDUCTIVE reasoning. We can expect to see a gradual cooling along the Gulf Coast for another 10 or so years. Just to give you an example, After Carla in 1961, 20 years later, we saw the Gulf of Mexico frozen for distance offshore. (Saw the pictures at the heliports that I used to fly off shore in the 1990's) If you use Hurricane Ike, 2008, as the final hurricane of the active period, then you can actually expect the cooling cycle to end with a huge hurrah around 2028, or in about 10 to 12 years. Please be aware that none of this is close to being exact and is being disrupted by the increasing energy being pumped into the world climate system.

Additionally, there cycles within cycles, so you could see some activity start again, but you probably will not see the storm super cycle restart until halfway through the next warming cycle around 2040. Just to be clear, this may or may not happen. There are two good reasons to be skeptical of my hypnosis. 1. It is inductive reasoning, not deductive which is the proper scientific method. 2. We are in a new 400 part per million area, and all bets must be hedged.

I do not know if the cycles will be compressed in time, expanded in extremes of weather, or broken completely. We have seen what the El Nino does to the Jet stream, and what the melting of the Greenland Glaciers are doing to the Gulf Stream, both of these seem to be wild cards that can change all of the cycles and all of the out comes.
Until we deal with ISIS in Syria and Iraq an attack on the homeland continues to increase. It is impossible to get people to seriously take AGW as the greatest world threat when clearly American's think ISIS is the greatest threat. This consumes the American populace thought currently and will continue to grow towards that. If we can, as a world, successfully defeat ISIS and begin to socially repair the broken parts of the Middle East and give people there a chance at peace and hope then we can be better positioned as a world to do the same in regards to AGW. This is the debate now, terrorism not AGW consumes almost all media coverage, American thought, and American policy. We are fooling ourselves to think we can adequately address AGW before we address the defeat of ISIS. The world now is talking a lot about AGW and terrorism. Talk is fine, and like world strategy towards ISIS and AGW, world strategy is woefully lacking in coming up with a plan strong enough to honestly and successfully defeat both. We're talking hard choices, big plans, and a big price tag now, to prevent a much larger price tag and human suffering later. Only the world together can defeat this ideology of hate and Islamic extremism and defeat the propaganda agenda that continues to hamstring thought and action on AGW.
Quoting 243. Loduck:

I live in NE Fl along the St Johns river and I have been watching the river get higher and higher with some local flooding for the past couple of months. Now all of the docks are under water. It has also been very windy everyday for the past couple of months. We have also had very little rain and it has been very warm. Can anyone tell me why this is happening? Thanks in advance.


Just my two cents since I'm in your general area. Seems we've had alot of high pressure to the north with stalled frontal boundaries to the south which wash out over time. The pressure gradient between the high to the north and lower pressures to the south have led to several periods of onshore flow with breezy conditions at times along with higher than normal tides and some flooding along the coast and St John's River basin.

Rip currents have been a concern as well as beach erosion.
Lot's of rain the past few here in the Florida Keys, but wow was it cold back in 1876

From the NWS Key West discussion

.CLIMATE...
DECEMBER 6TH...ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST CLIMATE HISTORY...IN
1876...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 49F WAS RECORDED. THIS WAS
THE LAST OF SEVERAL DAYS OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES IN 1876.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
Quoting 242. pablosyn:



Where i click to see this model???

A storm called Desmond has been giving a few problems to the northern UK over the last few hours.
Just goes to show what can go wrong with the weather.
I was in all these areas 2 weeks ago working and they were already saturated from constant rains.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3347174/N ightclub-evacuated-gales-rip-signs-storm-brings-la ndslides-floods-road-chaos-northern-Britain.html

Link

All is very dry in southern Spain with no rain for weeks here now.
They are saying that this year could be very bad for rains or lack of rains here.

Cumbria (UK) flooding.

Storm Desmond: Homes flooded and thousands without power
BBC, 13 minutes ago
Tens of thousands of homes are without power after Storm Desmond caused severe flooding, and travel disruption, across northern England and parts of Scotland.
Power at about 55,000 homes could be off for "days" following flooding at an electricity substation in Lancaster.
The Army has been evacuating homes in Cumbria and the Scottish Borders, where hundreds of homes are under water and scores of severe flood warnings remain.
The floods minister said the storm had broken "all the UK rainfall records".
Provisional figures suggest more than 340mm [13,4 inches] of rain fell in 24 hours in the Lake District - which would be a new record if confirmed.
...

More see link above.
An extensive Area of high pressure in the Northern hemisphere. What is the reason?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVjg9-KWUAAYGux.png
Here's a Youtube vid of a 'new waterfall' created by the deluge from Desmond.

Link

Strangely, that link takes you to a point halfway through the video. Click the replay icon to see it from the start.
Quoting 251. barbamz:


Cumbria (UK) flooding.

Storm Desmond: Homes flooded and thousands without power
BBC, 13 minutes ago
Tens of thousands of homes are without power after Storm Desmond caused severe flooding, and travel disruption, across northern England and parts of Scotland.
Power at about 55,000 homes could be off for "days" following flooding at an electricity substation in Lancaster.
The Army has been evacuating homes in Cumbria and the Scottish Borders, where hundreds of homes are under water and scores of severe flood warnings remain.
The floods minister said the storm had broken "all the UK rainfall records".
Provisional figures suggest more than 340mm [13,4 inches] of rain fell in 24 hours in the Lake District - which would be a new record if confirmed.
...

More see link above.


I was in Hawick in the Scottish Boarders 2 weeks ago working there and the river is about 8 feet below the level of the houses in a lot of the town.
Now sense says that the locals over the last 1000 years would not have built houses in the flood plain, so the river is rising above what must have been considered a safe place to build houses etc.
Having said that we must consider that the place is on a slope and that it has not sunk into the surrounding countryside or been altered by earthquakes. So the river levels are historical and probably a result of very high levels of atmospheric water contents.
Possibly a sign of the times?
Then again it could just be "another one" of those 1000 year events?
It be weather,

Pea'hi challenge. If you want to see 30-45 ft waves being ridden live from Hawaii.
Link
Quoting 254. PlazaRed:


I was in Hawick in the Scottish Boarders 2 weeks ago working there and the river is about 8 feet below the level of the houses in a lot of the town.
Now sense says that the locals over the last 1000 years would not have built houses in the flood plain, so the river is rising above what must have been considered a safe place to build houses etc.
Having said that we must consider that the place is on a slope and that it has not sunk into the surrounding countryside or been altered by earthquakes. So the river levels are historical and probably a result of very high levels of atmospheric water contents.
Possibly a sign of the times?
Then again it could just be "another one" of those 1000 year events?



Globally, the Water Vapor per square meter is 7-10% more today than 35 years ago.

That loads the dice toward greater Rainfall rates per given storm.

That reality is one faction of AGW that the Complex Climate Models have "underplayed".

Our Global observations show 500-1000 yr rain events are becoming more.and more common.

Quoting 209. GeoffreyWPB:



Just weird Florida weather? Or does that include most of the eastern US and Canada?
Lol. I guess it's both, although it seems that it can be raining somewhere in Florida no matter what else is happening within a thousand miles.
Here's a before and after of one of the rivers in Cumbria:



Really terrible flooding. It's caused by a river of moisture originating from the tropics and the same flow which caused the heavy rain in Miami.

Quoting 253. yonzabam:

Here's a Youtube vid of a 'new waterfall' created by the deluge from Desmond.

Link

I remember going there with a school trip in the 1960s and being told that the waterfall which created Malham Cove would never flow again as the water sunk into the ground at a pothole above it. There is a small water fall called Janet's Foss below the cove which used to have a small amount of water flowing over it.
I wish I was there now with our old geography teacher to take some phots of what we never thought we would see.
Thank you for the link.
Quoting 208. Skyepony:

Had some heavy but fleeting showers in Melbourne this evening.

Today was NWS Skywarn Recognition Day. Good turn out in MLB. Our hams have won it 7 out of the last 11 years including the last 4 years in a row. We'll see soon enough if it's going to be five years in a row.
I worked the Melbourne Skywarn station on 20 meters yesterday, so I was one contact that helped them win. :-) It would be nice if BIrmingham did something similar but, in the almost 8 years I've been in Skywarn, they never have. They like us when we have severe weather. The rest of the time, they seem to be far too busy doing something else to worry about us. No, I take that back. They sent us some pins one year, and I think somebody got a hat.
Quoting 259. Envoirment:

Here's a before and after of one of the rivers in Cumbria:



Really terrible flooding. It's caused by a river of moisture originating from the tropics and the same flow which caused the heavy rain in Miami.


Dang. That second picture looks just like the Russian River when we had our El Nino floods, even down to the overall gray look of everything. I guess your pineapple connection is Miami. What's the history of flooding there in El Nino years? At least in northern California, some of our worst floods were in El Nino years, particularly the last very strong years of 1983 and 1997.
Quoting 262. sar2401:

Dang. That second picture looks just like the Russian River when we had our El Nino floods, even down to the overall gray look of everything. I guess your pineapple connection is Miami. What's the history of flooding there in El Nino years? At least in northern California, some of our worst floods were in El Nino years, particularly the last very strong years of 1983 and 1997.



I'd been wondering that too, but the Met Office's El-Nino info mainly said what any US one says and didn't seem to have anything about how El Nino or La Nina affected UK weather. I wasn't here yet in 97 or 83, but remember the flooding in Calif 83!
Quoting 258. sar2401:

Lol. I guess it's both, although it seems that it can be raining somewhere in Florida no matter what else is happening within a thousand miles.


It's also a good example of why the terms "dry season" and "rainy season" are relative terms to the climate. Having been born in AZ and lived in Tucson AZ and the suburbs of San Diego before my family moved to Florida, those regions out west also have a dry season and a rainy season. The difference is the rainy season over there is often drier than the dry season in Florida, and the dry season is actually the dry season, as in you can go years without seeing a decent rain event for months during the dry season. In Florida, the dry season means less frequent rains, but heavy rain events can and do happen, as it has been in South Florida the past few days, it's just less often.
Quoting 254. PlazaRed:


I was in Hawick in the Scottish Boarders 2 weeks ago working there and the river is about 8 feet below the level of the houses in a lot of the town.
Now sense says that the locals over the last 1000 years would not have built houses in the flood plain, so the river is rising above what must have been considered a safe place to build houses etc.
Having said that we must consider that the place is on a slope and that it has not sunk into the surrounding countryside or been altered by earthquakes. So the river levels are historical and probably a result of very high levels of atmospheric water contents.
Possibly a sign of the times?
Then again it could just be "another one" of those 1000 year events?


Well, one would hope! But, Llanrwst in North Wales, pretty much yearly flooding didn't stop them from building the town and houses along the river LOL And it's been a main village for a good 800 years, being the closest to Conwy castle the Welsh natives were aloud to have trade/market. Though, maybe they didn't have as much flooding back then and it's a more recent problem. It's a bit of a local joke how they flood so easily. Though the new drainage has helped a bit in the village centre, if not the roads going in and out of still!


edit: that said, many other N Wales villages were def built on the high ground at least
Quoting 254. PlazaRed:


I was in Hawick in the Scottish Boarders 2 weeks ago working there and the river is about 8 feet below the level of the houses in a lot of the town.
Now sense says that the locals over the last 1000 years would not have built houses in the flood plain, so the river is rising above what must have been considered a safe place to build houses etc.
Having said that we must consider that the place is on a slope and that it has not sunk into the surrounding countryside or been altered by earthquakes. So the river levels are historical and probably a result of very high levels of atmospheric water contents.
Possibly a sign of the times?
Then again it could just be "another one" of those 1000 year events?
Hawick has a long history of damaging floods going back to at least the 1700's. We stayed there when we visited Scotland in 2002. I remember thinking that the town was much too close to the river. There were floodwalls along the center of town that started being built when all the textile mills were established, which was in the late 1700's. If you look at at an aerial photo, a lot of the old town is built right on a floodplain, and it's only the channelization of the river through town that helps to control flooding. Whether in Scotland or California, towns were established along rivers for transport or water power, and flooding is the price we pay for that.
Quoting 262. sar2401:

Dang. That second picture looks just like the Russian River when we had our El Nino floods, even down to the overall gray look of everything. I guess your pineapple connection is Miami. What's the history of flooding there in El Nino years? At least in northern California, some of our worst floods were in El Nino years, particularly the last very strong years of 1983 and 1997.


El Nino doesn't have a direct impact on the UK's weather and doesn't cause more flooding. It tends to cause drier, colder winters for Northern Europe. The current situation was caused by a flow of tropical moisture - which tends to happen a few times or so a year in the UK - combined with a powerful winter storm, Desmond. Both of which combined to cause large amounts of rain. The flooding was made worse due to the ground being very saturated by the passing of the two previous winter storms, Barney and Clodagh.
Quoting 264. Jedkins01:



It's also a good example of why the terms "dry season" and "rainy season" are relative terms to the climate. Having been born in AZ and lived in Tucson AZ and the suburbs of San Diego before my family moved to Florida, those regions out west also have a dry season and a rainy season. The difference is the rainy season over there is often drier than the dry season in Florida, and the dry season is actually the dry season, as in you can go years without seeing a decent rain event for months during the dry season. In Florida, the dry season means less frequent rains, but heavy rain events can and do happen, as it has been in South Florida the past few days, it's just less often.
For me, rainy season in south Florida was easy to understand. If I had to go to Miami for a job, it was the rainy season. Didn't matter what time of year, it was the rainy season. :-) In California, the rainy season and dry season are usually pretty consistent. It might rain anytime from October to May. It was never going to rain from June through September. I'd drop the top on the MG in June, and I think I remember twice in 30 years where I had to put it up because of a shower from a tropical system. Of course, that's how it used to be. Seems that has been changing since I left 10 years ago as well.
Quoting 246. DeepSeaRising:

Until we deal with ISIS in Syria and Iraq an attack on the homeland continues to increase. It is impossible to get people to seriously take AGW as the greatest world threat when clearly American's think ISIS is the greatest threat. This consumes the American populace thought currently and will continue to grow towards that. If we can, as a world, successfully defeat ISIS and begin to socially repair the broken parts of the Middle East and give people there a chance at peace and hope then we can be better positioned as a world to do the same in regards to AGW. This is the debate now, terrorism not AGW consumes almost all media coverage, American thought, and American policy. We are fooling ourselves to think we can adequately address AGW before we address the defeat of ISIS. The world now is talking a lot about AGW and terrorism. Talk is fine, and like world strategy towards ISIS and AGW, world strategy is woefully lacking in coming up with a plan strong enough to honestly and successfully defeat both. We're talking hard choices, big plans, and a big price tag now, to prevent a much larger price tag and human suffering later. Only the world together can defeat this ideology of hate and Islamic extremism and defeat the propaganda agenda that continues to hamstring thought and action on AGW.


Personally I think the only way to deal with terrorism coming out of the Middle East is a combination of doing our best to influence Americans not to become anti-Muslim, and to send only special forces teams to take out important individuals that helps cripple their ability to cause attacks. Mass scale military whether it be boots on the ground or air strikes does not stop terrorism, it only recruits more terrorists and leads to more recruits, while simultaneously leading to more civilians killed because terrorists try to blend in as civilians like cowards, and nations are left war torn and in shambles.

The result leaves a country with numerous refugees, and a country easier for extremism to take over. The result is more terrorism. It's an endless cycle. Our culture needs to be educated by the fact that terrorism was a specifically invented by extremists for the purpose of instilling fear that results in war. They want us to go to full scale war, not hold off and only send in teams to assassinate their leaders.

ISIS came about directly as a result of the ravaged and war torn environments of Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Obama made right decision by gaining intelligence on Obama and sending in special forces units to take him out, but everything else he's done on foreign policies as well as the Bush's that started it all has been terrible. The results speak for themselves.

Ok, enough politics for me, lol.
Quoting 267. Envoirment:



El Nino doesn't have a direct impact on the UK's weather and doesn't cause more flooding. It tends to cause drier, colder winters for Northern Europe. The current situation was caused by a flow of tropical moisture - which tends to happen a few times or so a year in the UK - combined with a powerful winter storm, Desmond. Both of which caused combined to cause large amounts of rain. The flooding was made worse due to the ground being very saturated by the passing of the two previous winter storms, Barney and Clodagh.
OK, thanks. I was thinking that, since El Nino sets up a strong southern jet, the attendant tropical moisture would have a better chance of getting caught up in the Atlantic circulation and affecting Britain. As usual with flooding, it's what happened before the big flood that helps cause the big flood. If the ground wasn't already saturated, this would probably just be a more typical flood rather than historic.
For those interested in the history of ISIS and the rise of Islamic terrorists in general, there's a good paper about it that was published by The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center. The Center is located in Israel, and has close ties to the IDF and Mossad. There's no country in the world with more experience fighting terrorists, and their conclusions should be seriously considered before deciding what the appropriate response is to the latest round of terrorist attacks.
Quoting 263. mitthbevnuruodo:




I'd been wondering that too, but the Met Office's El-Nino info mainly said what any US one says and didn't seem to have anything about how El Nino or La Nina affected UK weather. I wasn't here yet in 97 or 83, but remember the flooding in Calif 83!
I don't know about what, if any, effects El Nino has on the UK, but it seems like there should be at least some peripheral effects. I don't live there and haven't really made any close study of it, so I'll defer to those that do live there. I'm hoping California doesn't get a repeat of the 1983 or 1997 floods. Unfortunately, it seems like these are the only kinds of events that end drought there. If it does happen, at least I won't have to be floating around plucking people off roofs this time. :-)
Quoting 256. Abacosurf:

Pea'hi challenge. If you want to see 30-45 ft waves being ridden live from Hawaii.
Link


These guys make most the players in the NFL look like whiny children.
Quoting 256. Abacosurf:

Pea'hi challenge. If you want to see 30-45 ft waves being ridden live from Hawaii.
Link
If no one gets killed or seriously injured out there today it will be quite a feat.
Quoting 261. sar2401:

...They sent us some pins one year, and I think somebody got a hat.

I've mostly got pencils and stickers.

Best Skywarn swag I saw yesterday was a magnetic decal on a car.


Here's a good source for weather geek gifts..

sar2410 - your comment, "The flooding was made worse due to the ground being very saturated by the passing of the two previous winter storms, Barney and Clodagh."

I don't wholly agree with this, at least not as applied to northern England.

Please bear in mind that a hell of a lot of rain fell from ex-Hurricane Kate, which produced prodigious amounts of rain over NW England and southern Scotland. Okay, they did not name it as a separate storm, but I remember clearly following its course from inception, as it traversed the Atlantic and then hit the British Isles. One outcome of strong El Nino, I believe - and please correct me if I'm wrong - is that more tropical storms form near the Cape Verde Islands, and then recurve sharply, usually before hitting the US coast. I have myself been involved in flood science and the construction of defences near a town in North Yorkshire, so I was watching ex-Kate very carefully, as I was suspicious that it would bring a lot of rain with it, which, if the storm tracked more to the south, would severely test those flood defences. In the end, the track of ex-Kate was more to the north and Yorkshire got comparatively little of the rain. However, I live in County Durham, and we got a lot of it here, and they had even more over the western side of the Pennines. So, yes, Barney and Clodagh did contribute a bit, but ex-Kate, I think, did a lot of the pre-wetting, and particularly in the north.

It's a bit academic, for now, as there has been so much damage caused by Desmond. Numerous rivers in the north have broken their peak flow records. This is a big deal given that many of the gauge records go back decades, and some of them well over 50 years.

This rain business over the UK and the northern European areas although not part of the Tropical weather scene is a significant spin off from it.
I was in the North of England and the Scottish boarders working 2 weeks ago and the amount of flooding in the Skipton and Keighley areas was way beyond anything I have ever seen there in the last going on 70 years. I have never seen the valleys so badly flooded as they were 2 weeks ago.
Then we see a video of a waterfall flowing over Malham Cove which is a bit like the UKs version of the Niagara Falls in size. Possibly bigger. Nobody in my time in the UK ever thought that they would see water flowing over Malham Cove in a waterfall?

So things are grim and interesting at the same time!

I don't think any of this is to do directly with the El Niño, its just water vapor condensing over the North Atlantic and maybe more to do with the cold blob south of Greenland, that's a whole different story to be told later no doubt?
Definately stormy here in the pacific NW. Mt Baker ski area reporting 19" in the last 24hrs, 60" at heather meadows, 82" on top of panorama dome. Yeah!
Quoting 275. Skyepony:


I've mostly got pencils and stickers.

Best Skywarn swag I saw yesterday was a magnetic decal on a car.


Here's a good source for weather geek gifts..




Cool decal. I'm a spotter myself as hard as it may be to believe. ;)
Quoting 268. sar2401:

For me, rainy season in south Florida was easy to understand. If I had to go to Miami for a job, it was the rainy season. Didn't matter what time of year, it was the rainy season. :-) In California, the rainy season and dry season are usually pretty consistent. It might rain anytime from October to May. It was never going to rain from June through September. I'd drop the top on the MG in June, and I think I remember twice in 30 years where I had to put it up because of a shower from a tropical system. Of course, that's how it used to be. Seems that has been changing since I left 10 years ago as well.

Here in Spain we call the UK the cold damp island. The CDI.
It rains almost all the time there and I was recently in the UK for 2 weeks from the 10th of Nov to the 24th of Nov.
It rained every day and some days all day.

Here in Southern Spain we get a bit of rain from time to time.
It has not rained for about 5 weeks now and maybe it will rain next week a bit. Then it might not rain again for a month or so. Then it will be summer. Some years it only rains 8 or 10 days in the whole year.
We have a massive system of dams all over the place, I think Spain is the second most dammed country in the world, so we never run out of water.
I have no problem with the sun shining all the time after living in the cold damp island, (CDI) for may decades. Now I only go there when I have to do some work as I don't get a state pension and I have to earn about $200 a month to pay my bills and survive.
In the CDI I would have to earn about $1000 just to survive and be cold and wet along with also being trapped on an island.

Having said that and moaned about the weather and cold I also think that northern European weather systems are changing very rapidly and places like Sweden where I worked in the 1970s are now not having months of endless snow and cold with ice about 2 feet thick as I remember when I lived in Soujobaden and Gamla Stan in the Stockholm area in the 1970s.
High seas on the Columbia bar 15-17' rising to 25' mon mrning.

Link
Quoting 246. DeepSeaRising:

Until we deal with ISIS in Syria and Iraq an attack on the homeland continues to increase. It is impossible to get people to seriously take AGW as the greatest world threat when clearly American's think ISIS is the greatest threat. This consumes the American populace thought currently and will continue to grow towards that. If we can, as a world, successfully defeat ISIS and begin to socially repair the broken parts of the Middle East and give people there a chance at peace and hope then we can be better positioned as a world to do the same in regards to AGW. This is the debate now, terrorism not AGW consumes almost all media coverage, American thought, and American policy. We are fooling ourselves to think we can adequately address AGW before we address the defeat of ISIS. The world now is talking a lot about AGW and terrorism. Talk is fine, and like world strategy towards ISIS and AGW, world strategy is woefully lacking in coming up with a plan strong enough to honestly and successfully defeat both. We're talking hard choices, big plans, and a big price tag now, to prevent a much larger price tag and human suffering later. Only the world together can defeat this ideology of hate and Islamic extremism and defeat the propaganda agenda that continues to hamstring thought and action on AGW.

AGW is the ultimate threat to our species and makes ISIS (which we created) look like an ice cream social. James Hanson is in apparent despair over the lack of progress at the CONFERENCE. Many scientists think that the impact of AGW has been seriously underestimated and that there will be climate chaos by 2050.

I am sitting here in normally cold Memphis TN on December 6, 2015 and roses are blooming, strawberries are ripening and I could still have tomatoes if I hadn't cut the bush down. It ain't normal but the oligarchs who rule the entire planet want us to be distracted by terror, racism and professional sports while they amass all the wealth on the planet. Our species understands short term danger like a tiger in the bushes but doesn't seem to be very cognizant of the long run. That is cheating all our descendent of their chance at life and I think it might be called eco-cide.
Quoting 281. plantmoretrees:

High seas on the Columbia bar 15-17' rising to 25' mon mrning.

Link


Cant seem to get that link to work.
Can you post a http link in words so as we can copy and paste it?
Thanks, the sea situation in the North of the UK is very bad with these storms from the south west.


The new normal for some years now: flowers that are still or already blossoming mid winter in Germany. Above some roses I've spotted today during a walk in the vineyards of Oppenheim (see pic below with the blue waters of Rhine River in the background). Over all the wine harvest has been a very early and quick one, due to the ongoing heat and drought this year in Germany. Fortunately the grapes did well thanks to the wet weather last winter and the stored humidity in the soil. Hope we'll get a lot of rain this winter again, so we are prepared for possible droughts next year as well.


Quoting 267. Envoirment:



El Nino doesn't have a direct impact on the UK's weather and doesn't cause more flooding. It tends to cause drier, colder winters for Northern Europe..


Well, as someone who lives in the west of the U.S., this looks suspiciously like previous years where all the storms were in the west of Europe and we didn't get anything over here. Hopefully that doesn't play out, cause I'm really looking forward to some rain this winter, let's just put it that way.
Quoting 283. PlazaRed:


Cant seem to get that link to work.
Can you post a http link in words so as we can copy and paste it?
Thanks, the sea situation in the North of the UK is very bad with these storms from the south west.


Try this. I took out a leading space.

Link
Quoting 282. Guysgal:


AGW is the ultimate threat to our species and makes ISIS (which we created) look like an ice cream social. James Hanson is in apparent despair over the lack of progress at the CONFERENCE. Many scientists think that the impact of AGW has been seriously underestimated and that there will be climate chaos by 2050.

I am sitting here in normally cold Memphis TN on December 6, 2015 and roses are blooming, strawberries are ripening and I could still have tomatoes if I hadn't cut the bush down. It ain't normal but the oligarchs who rule the entire planet want us to be distracted by terror, racism and professional sports while they amass all the wealth on the planet. Our species understands short term danger like a tiger in the bushes but doesn't seem to be very cognizant of the long run. That is cheating all our descendent of their chance at life and I think it might be called eco-cide.

I have reported a few times this week about the lack of any form of news on National Spanish TV about the Paris talks. We did seethe Spanish president playing dominoes and table football, along with giving some cooking lesions!

All we have had on TV is football specials and other such trash which it seems from my investigations in my town of 10,000 people that almost nobody is interested in.
The total number of people who have any idea what climate change is that I have encountered so far here is "10"!
Probably slightly more are interested in the football?
now tonight the TV news mentioned that the climate change talks would soon be issuing a statement?
Well we are eagerly chomping at the bit to hear it, if its not cancelled because of another special football match.

Having said that its also national Spanish government elections in about 2 weeks and they don't get as much attention as football. So I agree with you about the sweeping of matters under the rug or out of the way in favour of sports events.
Quoting 284. barbamz:



The new normal for some years now: flowers that are still or already blossoming mid winter in Germany. Above some roses I've spotted today during a walk in the vineyards of Oppenheim (see pic below with the blue waters of Rhine River in the background). Over all the wine harvest has been a very early and quick one, due to the ongoing heat and drought this year in Germany. Fortunately the grapes did well thanks to the wet weather last winter and the stored humidity in the soil. Hope we'll get a lot of rain this winter again, so we are prepared for possible droughts next year as well.


Hi Barb. Looks like my rose bushes. All of them are fully in bloom again. It looks like September, not December 6. All of my ferns on the front porch are still healthy, and they are usually dead by now from frost. I haven't even had to drag anything to the greenhouse yet. It hasn't rained since November 19, when we had our last torrential downpour. I keep waiting for this cooler and wetter El Nino to arrive. He seems to be taking a Pacific vacation instead. :-)
Quoting 282. Guysgal:


I am sitting here in normally cold Memphis TN on December 6, 2015 and roses are blooming ...

Wow, what a coincidence that I've posted our German December roses in post #284, lol.
Quoting 278. plantmoretrees:

Definately stormy here in the pacific NW. Mt Baker ski area reporting 19" in the last 24hrs, 60" at heather meadows, 82" on top of panorama dome. Yeah!
Exactly. This is another case in point: storms in the Pacific NW is decidedly not an El Nino pattern. Nothing but bone dry weather in most of places that really need rain grumble grumble..
Quoting 282. Guysgal:


AGW is the ultimate threat to our species and makes ISIS (which we created) look like an ice cream social. James Hanson is in apparent despair over the lack of progress at the CONFERENCE. Many scientists think that the impact of AGW has been seriously underestimated and that there will be climate chaos by 2050.

I am sitting here in normally cold Memphis TN on December 6, 2015 and roses are blooming, strawberries are ripening and I could still have tomatoes if I hadn't cut the bush down. It ain't normal but the oligarchs who rule the entire planet want us to be distracted by terror, racism and professional sports while they amass all the wealth on the planet. Our species understands short term danger like a tiger in the bushes but doesn't seem to be very cognizant of the long run. That is cheating all our descendent of their chance at life and I think it might be called eco-cide.
Terrorism and climate change are both threats. One is just more immediate than the other. Dealing with one doesn't mean we do nothing about the other. We have the capacity to take on both threats if we choose to.
Guysgal, don't think there's much doubt about it, AGW has been underestimated, this year alone has so many examples of extremes. Last twenty years has been so undeniable and the science on it so conclusive that one would think it should be glaringly obvious to all. Alas, we're not even close to a consensus with the public. It will take a Democratic House and Senate along with a Democratic President to enact the legislation needed to create real change. That said, we've been trending in the right direction, so that is a positive. ISIS makes this all the more difficult because not only do they steal attention but they put into power conservatives in Western nations because people think they can deal with ISIS better; when in reality they created this mess in the first place. Funny how that works.
Quoting 287. PlazaRed:


I have reported a few times this week about the lack of any form of news on National Spanish TV about the Paris talks. We did seethe Spanish president playing dominoes and table football, along with giving some cooking lesions!

All we have had on TV is football specials and other such trash which it seems from my investigations in my town of 10,000 people that almost nobody is interested in.
The total number of people who have any idea what climate change is that I have encountered so far here is "10"!
Probably slightly more are interested in the football?
now tonight the TV news mentioned that the climate change talks would soon be issuing a statement?
Well we are eagerly chomping at the bit to hear it, if its not cancelled because of another special football match.

Having said that its also national Spanish government elections in about 2 weeks and they don't get as much attention as football. So I agree with you about the sweeping of matters under the rug or out of the way in favour of sports events.
Here's a copy of all the sections of the draft agreement. Let me know if you can figure out what it means. I gave up after about the third section.
Quoting 276. JCheevorLoophole42:

sar2410 - your comment, "The flooding was made worse due to the ground being very saturated by the passing of the two previous winter storms, Barney and Clodagh."

I don't wholly agree with this, at least not as applied to northern England.

Please bear in mind that a hell of a lot of rain fell from ex-Hurricane Kate, which produced prodigious amounts of rain over NW England and southern Scotland. Okay, they did not name it as a separate storm, but I remember clearly following its course from inception, as it traversed the Atlantic and then hit the British Isles. One outcome of strong El Nino, I believe - and please correct me if I'm wrong - is that more tropical storms form near the Cape Verde Islands, and then recurve sharply, usually before hitting the US coast. I have myself been involved in flood science and the construction of defences near a town in North Yorkshire, so I was watching ex-Kate very carefully, as I was suspicious that it would bring a lot of rain with it, which, if the storm tracked more to the south, would severely test those flood defences. In the end, the track of ex-Kate was more to the north and Yorkshire got comparatively little of the rain. However, I live in County Durham, and we got a lot of it here, and they had even more over the western side of the Pennines. So, yes, Barney and Clodagh did contribute a bit, but ex-Kate, I think, did a lot of the pre-wetting, and particularly in the north.

It's a bit academic, for now, as there has been so much damage caused by Desmond. Numerous rivers in the north have broken their peak flow records. This is a big deal given that many of the gauge records go back decades, and some of them well over 50 years.


That was not my comment. I was responding to Environment. Since you both live in the UK, maybe you can come to some agreement as to the cause of the flooding. It seems pretty obvious there was a lot of saturated ground where the flooding is occurring, regardless of what storms caused it.
Quoting 275. Skyepony:


I've mostly got pencils and stickers.

Best Skywarn swag I saw yesterday was a magnetic decal on a car.


Here's a good source for weather geek gifts..


I've got a pair of those. I used to stick them on the truck when I was spotting. Now I just sit and talk on the radio. It's not as much fun, but someone has to coordinate where everyone's at and make sure they don't drive into a tornado.

It's a little disheartening seeing Melbourne do such a good job with Skywarn appreciation day while Birmingham does nothing. It seems like there should be some leadership at the top about what the NWS says is an important program, but there doesn't seem to be from what I've seen. Volunteers live on an occasional pat on the back, and it's really hard keeping up the ranks when we get none.
Quoting 287. PlazaRed:


I have reported a few times this week about the lack of any form of news on National Spanish TV about the Paris talks. We did seethe Spanish president playing dominoes and table football, along with giving some cooking lesions!

All we have had on TV is football specials and other such trash which it seems from my investigations in my town of 10,000 people that almost nobody is interested in.
The total number of people who have any idea what climate change is that I have encountered so far here is "10"!
Probably slightly more are interested in the football?
now tonight the TV news mentioned that the climate change talks would soon be issuing a statement?
Well we are eagerly chomping at the bit to hear it, if its not cancelled because of another special football match.

Having said that its also national Spanish government elections in about 2 weeks and they don't get as much attention as football. So I agree with you about the sweeping of matters under the rug or out of the way in favour of sports events.

What are the polls saying at this point?
Quoting 282. Guysgal:


Many scientists think that the impact of AGW has been seriously underestimated and that there will be climate chaos by 2050.


We always hear about the year 2100 which is a far away year when all of us will be gone. Talking about what happens in the near to medium term seems to be much more relevant. I don't understand how using the year 2100 as a measuring stick illustrates the urgency of the situation.
possible significant event weather wise from the 15th of dec onward first large scale high impact storm of season
Quoting 288. sar2401:

Hi Barb. Looks like my rose bushes. All of them are fully in bloom again. It looks like September, not December 6. All of my ferns on the front porch are still healthy, and they are usually dead by now from frost. I haven't even had to drag anything to the greenhouse yet. It hasn't rained since November 19, when we had our last torrential downpour. I keep waiting for this cooler and wetter El Nino to arrive. He seems to be taking a Pacific vacation instead. :-)


Roses normally bloom until the first hard freeze (-3C or so) in the DC area and I have some again this year Dec 6. The large green strawberries probably won't make it. Frost has killed tomatoes in the open air but in protected spots there are still a few plants, in particular a hanging basket is on my porch surface rather than on the exterior to reduce sky exposure and freeze. I'm picking lettuce, broccoli, and spinach still and my broccoli is the best of the year. Lettuce season normally ends here in early December, broccoli in late December and spinach, not until late April when it bolts, it's fully winter hardy to -15C.
Little area of strong convection left over from the last front hanging out in the Gulf.
Quoting 290. Mediarologist:

Exactly. This is another case in point: storms in the Pacific NW is decidedly not an El Nino pattern. Nothing but bone dry weather in most of places that really need rain grumble grumble..

Yeah, this fall/ winter seems more "normal" than the last couple here in the cascade foothills. Im hoping that this el nino grande charged jet stream will blow apart the Ridiculously resilient ridge.
Thanks for the tech support casSoCal, trying to learn a new skill today, adding an attachment from my tablet :-)
Hope this one works for the mt baker snow report :-/Link
http://www.mtbaker.us/snow-report/
Peak possibly not here yet of this El-Nino based on these recent CFSv2 runs. Reasoning being this is a very strong WWB beginning to take place.



Quoting 270. sar2401:

OK, thanks. I was thinking that, since El Nino sets up a strong southern jet, the attendant tropical moisture would have a better chance of getting caught up in the Atlantic circulation and affecting Britain. As usual with flooding, it's what happened before the big flood that helps cause the big flood. If the ground wasn't already saturated, this would probably just be a more typical flood rather than historic.


Not by any means. The saturated ground made the flooding worse, but it looks like the 24 hour record for rainfall was broken, so the flooding would've been very bad regardless.

The current set up reminds me eerily of the 2013/2014 winter storm season. But instead of the south west of the UK bearing the brunt of the storms, it's more central and northern parts. Hopefully things won't end up like that and there'll be a bit of respite soon.
Roses have been in full bloom on my rose bush.They're big a bright and its getting close to mid december!
sar24091: "That was not my comment. I was responding to Environment."

Noted. My apologies!
Quoting 306. washingtonian115:

Roses have been in full bloom on my rose bush.They're big a bright and its getting close to mid december!
Hearing and seeing pictures that tulips are blooming too!
Quoting 291. sar2401:

Terrorism and climate change are both threats. One is just more immediate than the other. Dealing with one doesn't mean we do nothing about the other. We have the capacity to take on both threats if we choose to.


Obesity is a threat. Cancer is a threat. Heart disease is a threat. Depression is a threat. People not getting enough to eat is a threat. If we took the ridiculous amounts of money we're throwing down the security theater hole and applied it to any one of these areas, we would save far more lives in a year than the combined total of terrorist attacks over the past decade.

The biggest threat from terrorism is fear.
Quoting 304. StormTrackerScott:

Peak possibly not here yet of this El-Nino based on these recent CFSv2 runs. Reasoning being this is a very strong WWB beginning to take place.




ECMWF not showing a strong WWB like the GFS. El nino should be slowly winding down next couple of weeks.


Quoting 301. georgevandenberghe:



Roses normally bloom until the first hard freeze (-3C or so) in the DC area and I have some again this year Dec 6. The large green strawberries probably won't make it. Frost has killed tomatoes in the open air but in protected spots there are still a few plants, in particular a hanging basket is on my porch surface rather than on the exterior to reduce sky exposure and freeze. I'm picking lettuce, broccoli, and spinach still and my broccoli is the best of the year. Lettuce season normally ends here in early December, broccoli in late December and spinach, not until late April when it bolts, it's fully winter hardy to -15C.
It's a lot different than previous years here. Even without a frost, the rose start to look bedraggled with the decreasing hours of daylight. They are thriving this year, with as many blooms, and as a large a blooms, as I usually see in late summer or early fall. I have more lettuce than I can eat. The strawberries are not only producing new blooms and fruits but I'm still getting nice red ones off the plants. My Amaryllis that usually bloom in spring have produced two stalks of flowers in the past week. All the impatiens are still spreading and blooming. It's been so warm here that the plants seem to be totally confused. The only thing not doing well is the cold tolerant pansies because they don't do well when it's warm. Plant wise, it's a very strange late fall.
Quoting 293. sar2401:

Here's a copy of all the sections of the draft agreement. Let me know if you can figure out what it means. I gave up after about the third section.

I might need a day or 3 to read though this before I can hazard a guess!
I'll get back to you ASAP on anything I can disentangle.
Quoting 296. ACSeattle:


What are the polls saying at this point?

Basically its a hopeless mess with nobody having more than 23% of the vote!
Quoting 309. Xyrus2000:



Obesity is a threat. Cancer is a threat. Heart disease is a threat. Depression is a threat. People not getting enough to eat is a threat. If we took the ridiculous amounts of money we're throwing down the security theater hole and applied it to any one of these areas, we would save far more lives in a year than the combined total of terrorist attacks over the past decade.

The biggest threat from terrorism is fear.


There is nothing to fear, but fear itself. That is exactly what Isil wants.

Quoting 313. PlazaRed:


Basically its a hopeless mess with nobody having more than 23% of the vote!

Are coalitions possible, like the left-of-center new government in Portugal?
Quoting 303. plantmoretrees:


Yeah, this fall/ winter seems more "normal" than the last couple here in the cascade foothills. Im hoping that this el nino grande charged jet stream will blow apart the Ridiculously resilient ridge.
Thanks for the tech support casSoCal, trying to learn a new skill today, adding an attachment from my tablet :-)
Hope this one works for the mt baker snow report :-/Link
http://www.mtbaker.us/snow-report/


That link didn't work for me. I'm on a tablet now, not sure what the real computer would do.
When I click on the link I get something that starts out [ http://%20http//www.mtbaker...]

It needs edited to remove the part [ %20http// ] so that it reads [ http://www.mtbaker.us/snow-report/ ]

Quoting 311. sar2401:

It's a lot different than previous years here. Even without a frost, the rose start to look bedraggled with the decreasing hours of daylight. They are thriving this year, with as many blooms, and as a large a blooms, as I usually see in late summer or early fall. I have more lettuce than I can eat. The strawberries are not only producing new blooms and fruits but I'm still getting nice red ones off the plants. My Amaryllis that usually bloom in spring have produced two stalks of flowers in the past week. All the impatiens are still spreading and blooming. It's been so warm here that the plants seem to be totally confused. The only thing not doing well is the cold tolerant pansies because they don't do well when it's warm. Plant wise, it's a very strange late fall.


Amazing to read of the garden plants doing so incredibly well in early December in the DC area. I remember being out at the beginning of December (2001 I believe) pulling weeds on a 77F day when I lived there. I'm surprised that the pansies are not doing well there right now, as they are strictly winter plants here in Central FL, but do well with our (average) winter weather. Mostly 60s and 70s for highs and 40s and 50s for lows. As soon as spring hits, they go down hill and die.
Quoting 321. DeepSeaRising:

Now, I'm going to utterly contradict myself.


It sounds like you are frustrated and confused. So am I. I just don't see any answers and I don't think anyone else does either. The answer is name calling according to the numerous political commercials here in New Hampshire. Somehow I don't think that will cut it.
At least we can look forward to this:

The mild winter is upon us.
Quoting 323. wartsttocs:



It sounds like you are frustrated and confused. So am I. I just don't see any answers and I don't think anyone else does either. The answer is name calling according to the numerous political commercials here in New Hampshire. Somehow I don't think that will cut it.
At least we can look forward to this:

The mild winter is upon us.




winter is cancelled this year looks like many of you well see way be low normal snow fall this about every where from KS too the E coast this is what a super EL Nino will do all so looks we we may be looking at a above normal severe weather where the warm weather is back in the mid W and point E CA will really start getting in too a EL Nino pattern this week with a vary wet storm on thursday and other sunday in too monday and may be other around the 16th and with this kind of set up dont be looking for any cold weather or snow any time soon for the back E look for a nic warm winter and lower heating bills at lest there a pluse too that
For Astrometeor and Jedkins01:

Christian. Conservative. Treehugger.
...
Quoting 311. sar2401:

It's a lot different than previous years here. Even without a frost, the rose start to look bedraggled with the decreasing hours of daylight. They are thriving this year, with as many blooms, and as a large a blooms, as I usually see in late summer or early fall. I have more lettuce than I can eat. The strawberries are not only producing new blooms and fruits but I'm still getting nice red ones off the plants. My Amaryllis that usually bloom in spring have produced two stalks of flowers in the past week. All the impatiens are still spreading and blooming. It's been so warm here that the plants seem to be totally confused. The only thing not doing well is the cold tolerant pansies because they don't do well when it's warm. Plant wise, it's a very strange late fall.


Yep around here there are still wasps and other insects buzzing happily. We've had cool weather the past 4 days now, and it feels great, but it's not cold enough to send away the bugs like a freeze or just hours below 40.

I went for a walk in some nearby woods for a break from all the studying the other day, and the mosquitoes are the worst I've ever seen around here, was getting torn up by mosquitoes at 1 PM in forecast cover areas, even getting bitten through the shirt many times. It's likely due to the fact that we went from being so dry to 10 inches of rain the past 30 days and like I said, while it's gotten cool, it's not cold enough to send the critters packing for hibernation yet, nor enough to kill off the mosquitoes.
Blog is weird again.....
Quoting 325. Tazmanian:




winter is cancelled this year looks like many of you well see way be low normal snow fall this about every where from KS too the E coast this is what a super EL Nino will do all so looks we we may be looking at a above normal severe weather where the warm weather is back in the mid W and point E CA will really start getting in too a EL Nino pattern this week with a vary wet storm on thursday and other sunday in too monday and may be other around the 16th and with this kind of set up dont be looking for any cold weather or snow any time soon for the back E look for a nic warm winter and lower heating bills at lest there a pluse too that

Technically, this winter hasn't yet begun. Cancelling it now is akin to cancelling hurricane season in late May. Stop.
Quoting 311. sar2401:

It's a lot different than previous years here. Even without a frost, the rose start to look bedraggled with the decreasing hours of daylight. They are thriving this year, with as many blooms, and as a large a blooms, as I usually see in late summer or early fall. I have more lettuce than I can eat. The strawberries are not only producing new blooms and fruits but I'm still getting nice red ones off the plants. My Amaryllis that usually bloom in spring have produced two stalks of flowers in the past week. All the impatiens are still spreading and blooming. It's been so warm here that the plants seem to be totally confused. The only thing not doing well is the cold tolerant pansies because they don't do well when it's warm. Plant wise, it's a very strange late fall.
I was born here in Alabama, and I have seen this before, SAR. One winter several years ago, I had a tomato plant outside that made it past January. My roses always love this cooler, dry air. They can get a bit ahead of the mildew without the humidity.
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue
SST anomaly Dec 1997 much stronger magnitude & latitudinal width nearer S. America. Nino 3.4 box warmer in 2015.

....
Back from my well deserved time out.
I apologize for my comment left here last night.
Next time I will wait for the Mod's to clean up the blog before a make another stupid statement.
Patience is key! Was just tired off the off blog rants!

Now weather related, S FL (Naples) weather is not the best! Tried doing yard work a couple of times,
but every time I would go out the drizzle would return.

Cheers, sfl
.
...
Quoting 325. Tazmanian:




winter is cancelled this year looks like many of you well see way be low normal snow fall this about every where from KS too the E coast this is what a super EL Nino will do all so looks we we may be looking at a above normal severe weather where the warm weather is back in the mid W and point E CA will really start getting in too a EL Nino pattern this week with a vary wet storm on thursday and other sunday in too monday and may be other around the 16th and with this kind of set up dont be looking for any cold weather or snow any time soon for the back E look for a nic warm winter and lower heating bills at lest there a pluse too that
Wait till February.

I remember Feb. 1983. The Christmas prior, I had to turn on the a/c while I was cooking the dinner. Later, eight months pregnant with my first child, we were frozen in, with no power, in February. I was afraid I wouldn't be able to get to the hospital...
Quoting 333. Gearsts:

Ryan Maue %u200F@RyanMaue
SST anomaly Dec 1997 much stronger magnitude & latitudinal width nearer S. America. Nino 3.4 box warmer in 2015.

Yeah I know what the numbers say, but the '97 el nino has had a more impressive presentation the whole way along, that just screams EL NINO to me, whereas the current situation .. definitely impressive, definitely super duper, just not quite as *BAM* in yo face as '97.
Quoting 333. Gearsts:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue
SST anomaly Dec 1997 much stronger magnitude & latitudinal width nearer S. America. Nino 3.4 box warmer in 2015.

Yeah I know what the numbers say, but the '97 el nino has had a more impressive presentation the whole way along. That just screams EL NINO to me, whereas the current situation .. definitely impressive, definitely super duper, just not quite as *BAM* in yo face as '97.

Let's see if this is a dupe..
Quoting 69. ColoradoBob1:

I was thunder struck by this image , it answered so many questions. And changed my thinking.

First, Greenland is not the world's largest island , it is the worlds largest archipelago. And why does it have that large bowl in it's middle ?

Second , notice the outlet on the Southwest coast, where the Titanic iceberg was born. That's the mouth of the world's fastest glacier. !5 years ago it was moving at 2 feet a day. Last measurement I saw, it's at 150 meters a day. So, roughly from 2 feet to 450 feet in 15 years. Notice how wide this drain is off the ice sheet. And how few it's obstructions are.
But the real interesting thing is , this outlet is several thousand meters deep.

Greenland is far more important to the Earth's thermostat than we ever dreamed.



Bowl in the middel: gravity.
Melt the ice and the land comes up a km or more. Same thing with the Antarctic continent.
One of the measures of today's ice melt actually measures parts of the land coming up - sometimes cm's/year - by the GRACE satellite.
Probably UK storm "Desmond" in Norwegian disguise?

'200-year flood' ravages southern Norway
The Local (Norway), Published: 07 Dec 2015 08:39 GMT+01:00
The storm Synne caused a so-called ‘200-year flood’ over the weekend, causing many Norwegians to be evacuated from their homes and affecting road and rail traffic in numerous locations.
In Rogaland, the situation was the most severe in Bjerkreim Municipality, officials said. Here, large amounts of water surging through the Bjerkreim left the town of Vikeså underwater.
“The situation has been serious in several locations in Rogaland, but particularly in the Dalane region. The high water levels have knocked out power and reduced mobile coverage. When the roads have to be closed it becomes very difficult to come out with a mobile power supply,” municipal official Reidar Johnsen said. ...


The 00Z GFS run



and the 06 GFS run



When long range model runs show snow, just remember this:

Quoting 243. Loduck:

I live in NE Fl along the St Johns river and I have been watching the river get higher and higher with some local flooding for the past couple of months. Now all of the docks are under water. It has also been very windy everyday for the past couple of months. We have also had very little rain and it has been very warm. Can anyone tell me why this is happening? Thanks in advance.
El Nino maybe.
347. beell
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST MON DEC 07 2015

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD...BUT SEVERE PROSPECTS SHOULD INCREASE BY DAY 6 INTO DAY 7. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES PERSIST AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS...AND ENSEMBLE SPREADS BECOME LARGE BEYOND DAY 5.

DAY 4/THU/...A PROGRESSIVE NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...BUT MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE.

DAY 5/FRI/...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE UNDERWAY THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER-MID MS VALLEY DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE SWRN STATES. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK IN THE AREA OF GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN. SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS LATE DAY 5...BUT MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES RESULT IN LOW PREDICTABILITY.

DAY 6/SAT/
...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL SPREADS AMONG MODELS REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE PRECLUDES INTRODUCTION OF A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA THIS UPDATE.

DAY 7/SUN/...SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE SERN STATES...BUT PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES DAY 6-7...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY...AND A RISK AREA WILL BE INTRODUCED ONCE GREATER CONFIDENCE IS GAINED REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPCOMING ACTIVE PATTERN.

..DIAL.. 12/07/2015
Forecast five years ago for West Palm Beach...

Quoting 348. GeoffreyWPB:

Forecast five years ago for West Palm Beach...




Indeed....it was cold in Tampa pretty much the entire winter
After a quiet week in the tropics, the Southern Hemisphere is showing some activity.

Presenting 97S...as seen by AQUA-L1B.


Also like to remind everyone this isn't the blog to post about politics that aren't directly related to science, science policy or the blog entry. Someone should really get a blog going for everyone to discuss politics not related to these things. Feel free to post a link or two to it here. Lets get the bulk of political ideas, thoughts and reactions to terrorism rolling on a different WUnderblog.
Quoting 344. barbamz:

Probably UK storm "Desmond" in Norwegian disguise?

'200-year flood' ravages southern Norway
The Local (Norway), Published: 07 Dec 2015 08:39 GMT+01:00
The storm Synne caused a so-called ‘200-year flood’ over the weekend, causing many Norwegians to be evacuated from their homes and affecting road and rail traffic in numerous locations.
In Rogaland, the situation was the most severe in Bjerkreim Municipality, officials said. Here, large amounts of water surging through the Bjerkreim left the town of Vikeså underwater.
“The situation has been serious in several locations in Rogaland, but particularly in the Dalane region. The high water levels have knocked out power and reduced mobile coverage. When the roads have to be closed it becomes very difficult to come out with a mobile power supply,” municipal official Reidar Johnsen said. ...




Same subtropical air mass.
That made for the Finnish nationwide December record (11.1° C, 'old' record was from 2006).
I'd have surmised everybody in e.g. Cumbria and Norway got used to it.
No surprises wrt precipitation increases, are there.
So I guess e.g. Cumbria likes this kind of incidents, and never did something about flood defenses.
I guess Somerset is eager for another one, too. Because what have they done to prevent a repeat of 2014? Nothing, of course.
China pollution: Beijing issues first red smog alert
BBC, 9 minutes ago, From the section China
Schools in Beijing are to close and outdoor construction to stop after the Chinese capital issued its first "red alert" over smog levels.
The red alert is the highest possible, and has not been used in the city before, the state-run Xinhua news agency says.
Authorities expect more than three consecutive days of severe smog.
Cars with odd and even number plates will be banned from driving on alternate days.
The alert comes as China, the world's largest polluter, takes part in talks on carbon emissions in Paris.
Current pollution levels in Beijing are actually lower than last week's, but the red alert has been placed because of levels expected over the coming days.
The order will last from 07:00 local time on Tuesday (23:00 GMT on Monday) until 12:00 on Thursday, when a cold front is expected to arrive and clear the smog.
China's CCTV news channel reported at the weekend that some parts of Beijing had visibility of only 200m (660 feet).

Quoting 346. NativeSun:

El Nino maybe.
El Nino is causing the St Johns river to rise??
Quoting 282. Guysgal:


AGW is the ultimate threat to our species and makes ISIS (which we created) look like an ice cream social. James Hanson is in apparent despair over the lack of progress at the CONFERENCE. Many scientists think that the impact of AGW has been seriously underestimated and that there will be climate chaos by 2050.

I am sitting here in normally cold Memphis TN on December 6, 2015 and roses are blooming, strawberries are ripening and I could still have tomatoes if I hadn't cut the bush down. It ain't normal but the oligarchs who rule the entire planet want us to be distracted by terror, racism and professional sports while they amass all the wealth on the planet. Our species understands short term danger like a tiger in the bushes but doesn't seem to be very cognizant of the long run. That is cheating all our descendent of their chance at life and I think it might be called eco-cide.
There are a lot worse things than climate change, lets say air and water pollution, the Earth being struck by a massive meteor, or maybe Yellowstone erupting. These are and would be worse than climate change, at least we can due something about air and water pollution and nothing at this time about the others. Why don't we spend our money and resources on eliminating air and water pollution and make this place for us and the other creatures that inhabit this small planet a better place to live.
Quoting 297. wartsttocs:



We always hear about the year 2100 which is a far away year when all of us will be gone. Talking about what happens in the near to medium term seems to be much more relevant. I don't understand how using the year 2100 as a measuring stick illustrates the urgency of the situation.
Why would 2050 be any different?
Quoting 333. Gearsts:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue
SST anomaly Dec 1997 much stronger magnitude & latitudinal width nearer S. America. Nino 3.4 box warmer in 2015.


This Nino was, and will be a lot different than 97/98. This Nino is a central Pacific based Nino, as 97/98 Nino the warm water was located closer to South America.
Quoting 339. Alagirl:

Wait till February.

I remember Feb. 1983. The Christmas prior, I had to turn on the a/c while I was cooking the dinner. Later, eight months pregnant with my first child, we were frozen in, with no power, in February. I was afraid I wouldn't be able to get to the hospital...
Good morning Alagirl...Would not be surprised if that exact same thing happened this winter..Although the long range models have shifted to January as the coldest rather than February..





Quoting 358. NativeSun:

This Nino was, and will be a lot different than 97/98. This Nino is a central Pacific based Nino, as 97/98 Nino the warm water was located closer to South America.
Yep..And that usually means more winter storms for the U.S. ..Stronger too..
Quoting 354. Loduck:

El Nino is causing the St Johns river to rise??
Yes, as it might be causing the weather conditions that are causing the St. Johns River to rise.
After averaging 4F warmer than average temperatures for the entire month of November, We are kicking it up a notch, or 6, for the first two weeks of December. Ridiculous warmth and record highs will be in jeopardy this week in Central IL. This week M-F is forcasted to be 15-25F above average.



Storm Desmond tapped an atmospheric river, a long, narrow plume of deep moisture from the tropics into the mid-latitudes, keeping it parked over parts of Ireland, the U.K. and southern Scandinavia, a prime recipe for excessive precipitation.

In this case, the atmospheric river was over 5,300 miles (8,500 kilometers) long from the western Caribbean Sea to southern Sweden.


Link
Quoting 357. NativeSun:

Why would 2050 be any different?


It is within the lifetimes of some of us.
Quoting 331. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Technically, this winter hasn't yet begun. Cancelling it now is akin to cancelling hurricane season in late May. Stop.
Which he did -- or tried to do -- and we all know how that turned out. :-)
Quoting 308. Climate175:

Hearing and seeing pictures that tulips are blooming too!


THat is surprising because tulips need chilling to bloom, two to three months of it. However I have some tulip and hyacinth shoots coming up too
well this EL Nino is a wrap up it has peaked at 3.1 and now it is droping off

nino 3.4 is down too 2.9

02DEC2015 24.7 2.4 27.9 2.9 29.5 2.9 30.2 1.7
Quoting 356. NativeSun:

There are a lot worse things than climate change, lets say air and water pollution, the Earth being struck by a massive meteor, or maybe Yellowstone erupting. These are and would be worse than climate change, at least we can due something about air and water pollution and nothing at this time about the others. Why don't we spend our money and resources on eliminating air and water pollution and make this place for us and the other creatures that inhabit this small planet a better place to live.


Who are you trying to convince us or yourself? The science is quite clear.
Quoting 356. NativeSun:

There are a lot worse things than climate change, lets say air and water pollution, the Earth being struck by a massive meteor, or maybe Yellowstone erupting. These are and would be worse than climate change, at least we can due something about air and water pollution and nothing at this time about the others. Why don't we spend our money and resources on eliminating air and water pollution and make this place for us and the other creatures that inhabit this small planet a better place to live.

Air pollution is carbon dioxide (that is: too much of it). Climate change hits everything and everyone. It is part of the same fundamental phenomenon (the ideology of plunder) but it is also by far the most important.
Quoting 367. Tazmanian:

well this EL Nino is a wrap up it has peaked at 3.1 and now it is droping off

nino 3.4 is down too 2.9

02DEC2015 24.7 2.4 27.9 2.9 29.5 2.9 30.2 1.7

Good Morning; note sure of what is actually on the ground today (from the show melt point as the day warms) but here are the current NOAA Conus snow charts:






Quoting 371. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning; note sure of what is actually on the ground today (from the show melt point as the day warms) but here are the current NOAA Conus snow charts:







seems about right

deep south melt out has begun



north winter approach

Quoting 319. HurrMichaelOrl:



Amazing to read of the garden plants doing so incredibly well in early December in the DC area. I remember being out at the beginning of December (2001 I believe) pulling weeds on a 77F day when I lived there. I'm surprised that the pansies are not doing well there right now, as they are strictly winter plants here in Central FL, but do well with our (average) winter weather. Mostly 60s and 70s for highs and 40s and 50s for lows. As soon as spring hits, they go down hill and die.


SAR's report is from Southeast AL. However I'm seeing unusual late growth and survivals here in DC also. I just planted lettuce seedlings (hardier than big plants) and large broccoli seedlings yesterday Dec 6. Both have a chance at surviving normal winter conditions here.

December 2001 had my latest date for penetrating frost, the kind that kills plants on my open porch in suburban MD. It was Dec 21 with impatiens looking sad but still growing (very slowly) , prior to that date.

All quiet for the next week. Big out door plans for this weekend. Sure glad our Florida forecaster is wrong about flooding and tornadoes for us. Had me worried there for a few days.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 367. Tazmanian:

well this EL Nino is a wrap up it has peaked at 3.1 and now it is droping off

nino 3.4 is down too 2.9

02DEC2015 24.7 2.4 27.9 2.9 29.5 2.9 30.2 1.7

how strong do you think this upcoming Nina will be?
Quoting 348. GeoffreyWPB:

Forecast five years ago for West Palm Beach...




Tampa at one point didn't even crack 60 degrees for over 3 weeks, and had nights in the 30's up to 10 days straight at one point with numerous freeze evens and several events below 30 degrees. My parents house is close to the coast, so normally it's very hard to get below 35 even during the coldest events. But that winter, we had multiple freezes at the home weather station.

That was such a crazy winter, but one particular event was the most memorable. We had cold rain mixed with sleet and a high of only 35 during the coldest day of that winter. A HIGH of 35 in the Tampa Bay area is just insane.

The rain and clouds cleared allowing temps to quickly plummet below freezing as skies cleared. The result was dangerous black ice left over in some areas, I remember the NWS in Ruskin mentioning for motorists to be wear of black lice and bridges icing, as well as noting how it was to actually be discussing such in their AFD.

I remember driving over some ice that got a bit scary as I was driving that night. By morning, the low plunged to 23 at my parents home weather station, which was only 4 degrees warmer than the all time coldest temperature of 19 in the Tampa Bay area. To make matters crazier, it wasn't a radiation freeze, it was still winds, so wind chills were as low as 10 to 15 by morning and single digits to near 0 over the interior and northern counties where temps plunged into the teens. It was unbelievably cold for the Tampa area. The result was bad for tourism, as eastern gulf the water temps plunged into the low 40's, killing many fish that washed up adding a misery of stench to the already barren and cold beaches lol.

Some ponds in Central Florida actually had partially iced over for a brief time, and there also many dead tropical plants. The agricultural and landscaping industries were hit even harder than tourism.