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Twin Invests 96L and 97L Worth Watching in the Atlantic

By: Jeff Masters 2:41 PM GMT on July 29, 2016

There's a new threat area to discuss today in the Atlantic: a tropical wave midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the Cabo Verde Islands that is headed west to west-northwest at 25 mph. This disturbance was designated Invest 97L on Thursday afternoon by NHC, and should arrive in the northern Lesser Antilles by late Saturday night. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the storm on Sunday, if needed. Satellite loops on Friday morning showed 97L had a modest area of heavy thunderstorms which were poorly organized, though there was some increasing spin evident in the cloud pattern. Wind shear was a light 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) was an adequate-for-developement 27°C (81°F), which was about 1°C (1.8°F) above average. Water vapor satellite imagery showed that 97L had a modest amount of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding it, which was slowing development.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L in the middle Atlantic.

Forecast for 97L
Steering currents favor very rapid west to west-northwesterly motion at about 25 mph for 97L though Monday, and storms that move this fast typically have trouble getting organized. This motion should take the disturbance through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday morning, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday afternoon, and into the Dominican Republic by Sunday night. All of these areas should expect to see heavy rains of 2 - 4" and wind gusts of 30 - 35 mph as 97L passes, and the NWS may end up issuing a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. The 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model shows somewhat favorable conditions for development through Saturday night, with wind shear in the light to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, a moist atmosphere, and SSTs near 27 - 27.5°C (81 - 82°F.) However, an unfavorable factor for development will be large-scale sinking motion over the tropical Atlantic over the next few days imparted by the passage of what is called a Kelvin Wave (see the tweet by The Weather Company's Mike Ventrice on this.) On Sunday through Monday, 97L is predicted to encounter high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, which would thwart development. At that time, the system may be undergoing interaction with the rough topography of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, will would also inhibit development. By Tuesday, 97L should be traversing Cuba, and will slow down to a forward speed of about 10 - 15 mph, taking it into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Wednesday and into the Gulf of Mexico around Thursday.

The Friday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, did not show 97L developing much. The 00Z Friday runs of the GFS and European model ensemble forecasts, done by taking the operational high-resolution version of the model and running it at lower resolution with slight perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate a range of possible outcomes, had fewer than 10% of their ensemble members predict that 97L would become a tropical depression. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 20% and 30%, respectively. When 97L reaches the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week, we will need to watch it, but the crystal ball is very murky on whether or not 97L might find favorable conditions for development then.


Figure 2. MODIS visible satellite image of 96L south of the Cabo Verde Islands taken on Friday morning, July 29, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

96L continues to grow more organized
A tropical disturbance that began as a strong tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Wednesday morning continues to grow more organized over the eastern Atlantic, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Saturday as it tracks west to west-northwestward at about 15 mph into the middle Atlantic. Satellite loops on Friday morning showed 96L had a compact area of heavy thunderstorms, and this activity was showing increasing organization. Plenty of spin was evident in the cloud pattern, and low-level spiral banding features were evident. Wind shear was a light 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were warm, near 28°C (82°F), which was about 1°C (1.8°F) above average. Water vapor satellite imagery showed that the eastern tropical Atlantic was quite moist, with the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) several hundred miles north of 96L. These conditions are favorable for development of a tropical depression.

Forecast for 96L
Steering currents favor a west to west-northwesterly motion at 15 - 20 mph for 96L over the next five days, and the storm should reach a point near 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and Africa, on Sunday night. The 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model predicted modestly favorable conditions for development through Saturday night, with wind shear in the light to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, a moist atmosphere, and warm SSTs near 27 - 27.5°C (81 - 82°F.) However, by Saturday night, 96L will encounter cooler waters, with temperatures a marginal 26.5°C (80°F). The SHIPS model also predicts that wind shear over the weekend will become high, greater than 20 knots, and the atmosphere will get very dry, due to an intrusion of the Saharan Air Layer (check out the 10-day African dust forecast from NASA.) These unfavorable conditions would stymie any development of 96L. As 96L approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands later next week, the shear increases even further and the air grows drier, making 96L unlikely to be a threat to the islands.

The Friday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, all supported continued development of 96L through Saturday. The 00Z Friday run of the GFS ensemble forecast had 30 - 40% of its twenty ensemble members predict that a tropical depression would form from 96L this weekend in the eastern Atlantic. Most of these forecasts had the storm dying out the middle Atlantic, due to unfavorable conditions, and none had it becoming a hurricane. Between 30 - 40% of the 50 members of the 00Z Friday European ensemble model forecasts also showed 96L becoming a tropical depression this weekend. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 40% and 50%, respectively.

A tropical cyclone-free Eastern Pacific for the first time since July 1
For the first time since July 1, there are no active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific, thanks to the dissipation of Tropical Storm Frank on Thursday. The seven named storms this month tied a record set in 1985 for the most July storms on record in the basin. We have a chance to break the record with an eighth named storm, if it forms by Sunday: in their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave a new tropical disturbance 850 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula 2-day and 5-day development odds of 50% and 80%, respectively. This storm--which would be named Howard if it gets to tropical storm strength--is expected to move west-northwest and not impact Mexico.

This Sunday marks the 40th anniversary of Colorado's Big Thompson flash flood, one of the deadliest flooding disasters in U.S. history, with 139 people killed. Bob Henson will be back later today with a look back at this historic flood.

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has more on the tropics in a Thursday afternoon post, HEAT WAVE ENDS AS MR & MRS ENSO FIGHT IT OUT.

The next name on the Atlantic list is Earl.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

this feels incredible :-)
Thanks Dr. Masters
97L

i feel so alone lol
I'll go on and say this is the best looking tropical wave I've seen all season so far. This is definitely Earl before the weekend is up. IMO
Thanks, Dr. Masters!

Our favorite open wave, invest 97L, is doing better this morning with the convection, but it's moving forward at 25 mph toward Lesser Antilles with trade winds increasing from here on. It's really hard to spin up into something modest if the invest is moving that fast. The reason NHC bothered to highlight it is because we'll have to watch it in western Caribbean/BOC. I'll say 10% chance of forming until then.

Quoting 4. Patrap:

97L


Starting to get a little spin in the center of the convection. I would raise these odds up to 30 /40 or 40 / 40 right now. With a Dvorak number of 1.0/1.0
Quoting 6. bigwes6844:

I'll go on and say this is the best looking tropical wave I've seen all season so far. This is definitely Earl before the weekend is up. IMO

Same here.
Quoting 1. TheDeathStar:

first comment yay!!

Beware of the Taz ;-)
Here is the MIMIC-TPW loop :

EDIT (sorry Aquak9, I suppose you only plussed the first part) : ... And I agree (see last blog) the next wave currently located over Central Africa looks great. Could be the next major in the Atl., who knows ?
96L



From last blog

Quoting 1069. Bluestorm5:


Best we have. Still an open wave for most part, although the convection is picking up a bit. 97L is moving pretty dang fast at 20 mph and trade winds are only going to pick up from here on toward eastern Caribbean. I'm not expecting 97L to wrap around decently for the next couple of days.




Na no good from last night
97L will slow down once it gets to about 50W

Quoting 1072. bigwes6844:

I'll go on and say this is the best looking tropical wave I've seen all season so far. This is definitely Earl before the weekend is up. IMO



It's still got some low level work to do but yeah for the most part I agree
14. IDTH




This will most likely end up being the biggest factor with both 97L and 96L as sinking motion is still a huge reason why I believe 96L hasn't become named just yet and why 97L is struggling to maintain thunderstorms (besides it's high speed)

Quoting 1012. Drakoen:
96L looks like it's on the verge of becoming a tropical depression. If this was in the GOM it would already be classified.

I couldn't agree more...again the tendency of the NHC to downplay the actual intensity and matter-of-fact development of tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Basin in particular is an issue which needs addressing in the soonest.
For us in the islands cases in point which had an unfortunately deadly impact with little lead-time of warning and preparation -thanks due solely -to delayed tropical system upgrading & mired meteorological bureaucracy of sorts are T.S Cindy Of 1993 (Martinique), & T.S. Debby of 1994 (St. Lucia). Both systems developed quote on quote 'near' the islands? A lot of data/ evidence begs to differ.

Additionally, extremely late, unreasonable & unjustifiably delayed system classifications occurred in the case of Emily (2011) (See link http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/emi ly11/Emily_01-02Aug11.gif ) & Pre-T.S. Helene (2012) as it made impact on the Central Lesser Antilles (as a Post Tropical depression?...), even Tomas (2010) can be applied somewhat to this scenario. And I personally think a very notable mess was made of keeping up with the true intensity of what was an obviously quickly strengthening Hurricane Danny last year (2015)... Let's hope this 'saga' can come to a long overdue conclusion for the sake of bonafide Tropical System Meteorology.

God Bless!
I'm gonna say this
I think 96L and 97L will spit out some surprises over the next few days and over the next week

Both needs to be watched extra close with both eyes
17. IDTH
Quoting 15. NatureIsle:

Quoting 1012. Drakoen:
96L looks like it's on the verge of becoming a tropical depression. If this was in the GOM it would already be classified.

I couldn't agree more...again the tendency of the NHC to downplay the actual intensity and matter-of-fact development of tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Basin in particular is an issue which needs addressing in the soonest.
For us in the islands cases in point which had an unfortunately deadly impact with little lead-time of warning and preparation -thanks due solely -to delayed tropical system upgrading & mired meteorological bureaucracy of sorts are T.S Cindy Of 1993 (Martinique), & T.S. Debby of 1994 (St. Lucia). Both systems developed quote on quote 'near' the islands? A lot of data/ evidence begs to differ.

Additionally, extremely late, unreasonable & unjustifiably delayed system classifications occurred in the case of Emily (2011) (See link http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/emi ly11/Emily_01-02Aug11.gif ) & Pre-T.S. Helene (2012) as it made impact on the Central Lesser Antilles (as a Post Tropical depression?...), even Tomas (2010) can be applied somewhat to this scenario. And I personally think a very notable mess was made of keeping up with the true intensity of what was an obviously quickly strengthening Hurricane Danny last year (2015)... Let's hope this 'saga' can come to a long overdue conclusion for the sake of bonafide Tropical System Meteorology.

God Bless!

That wouldn't just be classified, that'd be downright terrifying with wind shear being as low as it there.

AMSU Intensity Time Series



Thanks Dr M.
Quoting 18. Patrap:

AMSU Intensity Time Series






Stronger?
Holy smokes
If 97L gets into the NW Caribbean with favourable upper level it's gonna get nasty

97L Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop



Both systems look fairly impressive to me. I wouldn't be shocked to see 96L become a TD soon.
14. IDTH
10:52 AM EDT on July 29, 2016
Is the MJO suppose to be moving into the basin? We just can't seem to get it over here in the Atlantic for some reason.
25. IDTH
.
Remember the three S"s Shear Sal and Size.Too small a circulation will die a lot faster.
27. IDTH
Quoting 24. washingtonian115:

14. IDTH
10:52 AM EDT on July 29, 2016
Is the MJO suppose to be moving into the basin? We just can't seem to get it over here in the Atlantic for some reason.

Both the CMC and GFS (and it's ensemble members) are projecting it to be here. I don't have access to the ECMWF's forecast so if anyone would be so kind as to post it, we'd all greatly appreciate it.
28. Ed22
Quoting 4. Patrap:

97L


To me invest 97L is definitely west bown and somewhat slowing down dispite 15 to 20 mph trade-winds. Once invest 97L slows down to about 15 mph it will gather momentum strengthens in the eastern Caribbean, however that is remained to be seen...
A tad early maybe,but.....,





Weaker, west..stronger mo poleward.


We do Not want a CV seed in the Gom.




You did not post the full picture ;-)
Quoting 27. IDTH:


Both the CMC and GFS (and it's ensemble members) are projecting it to be here. I don't have access to the ECMWF's forecast so if anyone would be so kind as to post it, we'd all greatly appreciate it.

33. IDTH
Mark Sudduth just came out with a new blog post and he reiterates the lack of upward motion being both 96 and 97L's problem.

Link
97L limps into GOM early next week. Not a good scenario. Let's hope it dissipates prior to that possibility.
35. IDTH
Quoting 32. bigwes6844:




Thank you for posting that. I very much believe if there isn't a CCKW to support 97L or an MJO pulse, then 97L will most likely crash right into central america.
West Pac. never sleeps. At the moment, GFS is spitting out a very bad scenario in about 3-4 days for Hong-Kong (see for example Earth.nullschool.net), and JTWC graphic from Warning number 1 mostly agrees on the track (but not on the intensity fortunately) :

JTWC is closely watching the culprit : JTWC - prognostic reasoning for TD 6 - Warning number 1 - July 29, 1500 UTC*
"(...) DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. (...)"

I hope something gets in the way of that cursed track soon. No good for China, this.
* Their website is sometimes very slow to answer requests, so be patient.
Thoroughly unimpressed with both 96L and 97L's chances. I believe both systems will struggle and die as they reach the Lesser Antilles due to a combination of a lack of vertical instability and fast trade winds. May be an interesting prelude to August though.
Teddy....your a non conformist fo sho.
39. Ed22
Quoting 4. Patrap:

97L


Invest 97L will be a fighter heading towards the Eastern Caribbean sometime Sabbath afternoon (Saturday), at that forward speed could be around 15 mph. We in Jamaica here should be monitoring this tropical disturbance for imminent tropical development, furthermore invest 97L continues to look impressive; I hope it continues looks even better this afternoon...
40. IDTH


Something isn't right....

Even though the charts show the unmodified SAL a bit north of 96L, it's likely that there is some modified SAL intruding at the midlevels, which would help explain the resistance to lifting any higher than stratocumulus, "quasi-capping". Plus the storm remains too close to the ITCZ/monsoon trough.

Proto-Howard showing several areas of rotation, two of which are more evident than the rest. The one in the center of the image is the most obvious candidate for a center, although the one to the west can't be ruled out entirely.
Looking at the banding and the comma shaped structure of 96L on satellite, how can that not be a tropical depression?
48. Ed22
Quoting 17. IDTH:


That wouldn't just be classified, that'd be downright terrifying with wind shear being as low as it there.


Wind shear is on the decrease in the Caribbean paving the way for in coming invest 97L...
Quoting 14. IDTH:





This will most likely end up being the biggest factor with both 97L and 96L as sinking motion is still a huge reason why I believe 96L hasn't become named just yet and why 97L is struggling to maintain thunderstorms (besides it's high speed)



Wow, that's some serious subsidence coming up in early August.
Quoting 34. HaoleboySurfEC:

97L limps into GOM early next week. Not a good scenario. Let's hope it dissipates prior to that possibility.
If it can get more convection on the spin, it will be curious how it does when it does get to the Western Caribbean.
12z GFS does not develop either system.
Quoting 24. washingtonian115:

14. IDTH
10:52 AM EDT on July 29, 2016
Is the MJO suppose to be moving into the basin? We just can't seem to get it over here in the Atlantic for some reason.


Supposed to move in tomorrow :

54. IDTH
Quoting 48. Ed22:

Wind shear is on the decrease in the Caribbean paving the way for in coming invest 97L...




It actually is, I'm actually quite surprised. So far the CMC is winning the track game, hopefully not the intensity. Still got quite a bit of shear in the far eastern part but shear is overall decreasing among parts of the Caribbean. My worry is if it get's south of Cuba towards Jamaica as that is a highly favorable area. Of course I don't even need to explain what happens if it get's in the gulf.
Quoting 33. IDTH:

Mark Sudduth just came out with a new blog post and he reiterates the lack of upward motion being both 96 and 97L's problem.

Link


That has been the issue in the tropical Atlantic for sometime now. Couple that with very fast motion makes it challenging- especially for 97L.
Quoting 47. Houdude:

Looking at the banding and the comma shaped structure of 96L on satellite, how can that not be a tropical depression?


The thunderstorms are not being persistent enough.

57. IDTH
Quoting 52. VAbeachhurricanes:

12z GFS does not develop either system.

The GFS doesn't know what it's doing at this point. It could be projecting upward motion to come in and help but end up not developing anything. Something is wrong the GFS in the short range and I'm not just saying that because it isn't developing either system. It nailed the development of the first 4 storms in the long range and busted completely in the short range not showing any development.

The GFS in the short range right now is about as useless as it can be because it makes no sense with what it's forecasting at all.
58. vis0



hope it shows ...a;ready have 2 strikes on me. i guess this comment was tied with #1 cmmnt and whatever caused that to be deleted this went with it, then all my buttons under the comment box are not showing up so this is generically (a-la 1990) posted.
and MOST IMPORTANT are you watching and learning, calmly check the severe/flooding weather checklist

my 22cents is 97L is still a
"Surfing" TD, surfing to me means it has the dynamic to spin as a TS (if axis became vertical thus rotating winds are at min TS needs ) but for whatever reason its still has more of a horizontal axis so its rolling or surfing on the atmosphere.
Quoting 52. VAbeachhurricanes:

12z GFS does not develop either system.
ignore it. It's not doing a good job initializing
Quoting 54. IDTH:





It actually is, I'm actually quite surprised. So far the CMC is winning the track game, hopefully not the intensity. Still got quite a bit of shear in the far eastern part but shear is overall decreasing among parts of the Caribbean. My worry is if it get's south of Cuba towards Jamaica as that is a highly favorable area. Of course I don't even need to explain what happens if it get's in the gulf.
How it looks when it gets to 55W will really be telling, it should get there by this time tomorrow, and most very short term models expect convection to continue to increase, and the spin being tucked in the convection. 00z CMC and 12z NAM shows it get robuster and robuster as it get's closer to the Lesser Antilles. It's a waiting game to see if gets its self together or does not want to do anything.
Quoting 59. HurricaneAndre:

ignore it. It's not doing a food job initializing


How so?
Quoting 61. VAbeachhurricanes:



How so?


gfs been a out liner that how so
Quoting 62. Tazmanian:



gfs been a out liner that how so


In what way is it an outlier? Is the ECWMF developing these? What all the sudden were gonna rely on the CMC because it develops these? lol
Quoting 54. IDTH:





It actually is, I'm actually quite surprised. So far the CMC is winning the track game, hopefully not the intensity. Still got quite a bit of shear in the far eastern part but shear is overall decreasing among parts of the Caribbean. My worry is if it get's south of Cuba towards Jamaica as that is a highly favorable area. Of course I don't even need to explain what happens if it get's in the gulf.


I'm not surprised because I said it would happen
Not taking my eyes off 97L until it is dead and more dead.Ernesto(2012) did not really develop until it got to the western caribbean and models were not to enthusiastic about development either.It also struggled with dry air and trade.Isaac struggled from this too.
Quoting 63. VAbeachhurricanes:



In what way is it an outlier? Is the ECWMF developing these? What all the sudden were gonna rely on the CMC because it develops these? lol


Yes
Quoting 64. wunderkidcayman:



I'm not surprised because I said it would happen


Are you guys blind or just purposefully ignoring the band of 30-40knt wind shear draped over the Lesser Antilles?
Quoting 67. VAbeachhurricanes:



Are you guys blind or just purposefully ignoring the band of 30-40knt wind shear draped over the Lesser Antilles?

Have you not been following the commits in the blog we been saying the wind shear will drop has we head in too that area learn too read the commits we been saying since Thursday
Quoting 59. HurricaneAndre:

ignore it. It's not doing a good job initializing


The GFS, ECMWF, heck not even the CMC is showing any substantial development from either system. You can't pass that off as bad initiation.
The GFS though is showing a closed low near the Yucatan from 97L.
Look guys the model aren't gonna do well on these system until we get a HH RECON flight into the system and then that data gets input to the models then they will start getting better
Quoting 71. wunderkidcayman:

Look guys the model aren't gonna do well on these system until we get a HH RECON flight into the system and then that data gets input to the models then they will start getting better


Agreed in tell then model are crap
Quoting 67. VAbeachhurricanes:



Are you guys blind or just purposefully ignoring the band of 30-40knt wind shear draped over the Lesser Antilles?


T0 be fair it did just shrink in size by 75 miles or so:



Quoting 72. Tazmanian:



Agreed in tell then model are crap
Agree.
Quoting 37. CybrTeddy:

Thoroughly unimpressed with both 96L and 97L's chances. I believe both systems will struggle and die as they reach the Lesser Antilles due to a combination of a lack of vertical instability and fast trade winds. May be an interesting prelude to August though.
Greetings Cybertiddy...Give it a day or two, we may have some strengthening.
Quoting 67. VAbeachhurricanes:



Are you guys blind or just purposefully ignoring the band of 30-40knt wind shear draped over the Lesser Antilles?


Which is starting to lift out and it is expected to lift out and not be a problem so no not ignoring that it's there it's just that it doesn't make sense making it an issue because by the time 97L reaches there that band will no longer be there to be one

Quoting 68. Tazmanian:


Have you not been following the commits in the blog we been saying the wind shear will drop has we head in too that area learn too read the commits we been saying since Thursday


Yes thank you Taz
Quoting 75. hydrus:

Greetings Cybertiddy...Give it a day or two, we may have some strengthening.


Good afternoon! I don't think so, we've seen this scenario play out dozens of times over the last few July's. I can't rule out a brief tropical storm, but I really can't see any development beyond that.

As the saying goes, I'll take my crow with a grain of salt, or whatever.
Yeah,we all are just forecasting in da blind here.


👌
97L

Quoting 77. CybrTeddy:



Good afternoon! I don't think so, we've seen this scenario play out dozens of times over the last few July's. I can't rule out a brief tropical storm, but I really can't see any development beyond that.

As the saying goes, I'll take my crow with a grain of salt, or whatever.


Except this year isn't like the last few years though
81. IDTH
Quoting 78. Patrap:

Yeah,we all are just forecasting in da blind here.


👌

YUP!
Quoting 77. CybrTeddy:



Good afternoon. I don't think so, we've seen this scenario play out dozens of times over the last few July's. I can't rule out a brief tropical storm, but I really can't see any development beyond that.

As the saying goes, I'll take my crow with a grain of salt, or whatever.
Crow is rather tasty..I have eaten quite a bit, and its not bad, specially when i,m really hungry..only problem is every time i fork it they flap around on the plate, knocking over my coffee.
Got a good AMSR2 pass recently. Streamlines can easily be seen directed towards and wrapping into the invest, but it doesn't look they all converge into one central point, implying a weak pressure gradient. This is in good agreement with the recent ASCAT pass, which showed weak winds associated with 96L. The SAL to the north is also very noticeable.

GFS brings 97L into the BoC.
If the GFS is intermittent w/development of a system, continue to evaluate the overall synoptic environment using all standard levels and GFS based products (moisture, shear, land interaction, actual track evolution, etc) and make your best guess. Those overall conditions will usually not change much.

Conditions for both of these waves are far from perfect-and potential development is less than aggressive. That should tell you something right there. Run-to-run inconsistencies in the operational model can be as random as a butterfly farting in Brazil. Quit following surface "L's" around the chart. Figure out why the surface low is where it is. You might gain some skill.

If your not prepared to do that with ANY model, stick to the Intellicast, Accuweather, Weather Channel, FOX news etc, graphics.

Thank you, and please accept my apologies-my annual rant is over.
:)
Good day

97L is hanging on but that is about all for the moment. There is evidence of some turning but not a lot and the wave signature is very much that of an open wave trucking along at a good clip. It needs to slow down so as to be able to take advantage of the area between 55 and 62W for some organizing and strengthening. If it enters the Caribbean in its current condition then I would lower the odds of any further development materially until it reaches 75W and beyond, assuming it lasts that long. Tonight it will have the benefit of Dmax and close proximity to 55W so let's see what comes of that.
Starts spinning it up in the Bay of Campeche.
Quoting 82. hydrus:

Crow is rather tasty..I have eaten quite a bit, and its not bad, specially when i,m really hungry..only problem is every time i fork it they flap around on the plate, knocking over my coffee



Ah I think your problem there is your coffee is too close to your bird, rookie mistake Hydrus.
89. IDTH
Quoting 83. 1900hurricane:

Got a good AMSR2 pass recently. Streamlines can easily be seen directed towards and wrapping into the invest, but it doesn't look they all converge into one central point, implying a weak pressure gradient. This is in good agreement with the recent ASCAT pass, which showed weak winds associated with 96L. The SAL to the north is also very noticeable.



The SAL isn't the issue though because it's embedded into the ITCZ and it hasn't gotten into the system.

This is the problem:

Quoting 71. wunderkidcayman:

Look guys the model aren't gonna do well on these system until we get a HH RECON flight into the system and then that data gets input to the models then they will start getting better


If they aren't going to do well until recon then why do you insist they should shift south?
96L could take a more W track
Quoting 90. Bucsboltsfan:



If they aren't going to do well until recon then why do you insist they should shift south?


Do you really need to ask why?
Quoting 87. Climate175:

Starts spinning it up in the Bay of Campeche.
Can we get something different? No more BOC madness please.
Quoting 93. washingtonian115:

Can we get something different? No more BOC madness please.
Call it broken record.
Quoting 88. VAbeachhurricanes:




Ah I think your problem there is your coffee is too close to your bird, rookie mistake Hydrus.
I always try to set realistic and positive goals for myself, and to become a better human being. It is mistakes like this where i stumble and have to start over in life. Thank you VA. Words of encouragement from good folks like you, helps me deal with with the tribulation and travail that seems to be common.
Quoting 71. wunderkidcayman:

Look guys the model aren't gonna do well on these system until we get a HH RECON flight into the system and then that data gets input to the models then they will start getting better
Quoting 89. IDTH:


The SAL isn't the issue though because it's embedded into the ITCZ and it hasn't gotten into the system.

This is the problem:



Nowhere did I mention the Saharan Air Layer currently impacting the system (yet), I just noted that it can be clearly seen on the pass. The monsoon trough, not intertropical convergence zone in this case, has certainly helped 96L's organization thus far, but with the system trying to gain some sovereignty the circulation is stretching north/south since much of the better convergence still lies with the monsoon trough.
Quoting 83. 1900hurricane:

Got a good AMSR2 pass recently. Streamlines can easily be seen directed towards and wrapping into the invest, but it doesn't look they all converge into one central point, implying a weak pressure gradient. This is in good agreement with the recent ASCAT pass, which showed weak winds associated with 96L. The SAL to the north is also very noticeable.



It looks like there is some convergence to me towards the point 12N 23.5W, with a well-defined cyclonic curved equatorward band. The probably is the system is still somewhat within the ITCZ so some streams in that imagery will reflect that.
Good morning everybody, we can call 97L a "derecho -wave".
The Atlantic is reminding me of the 2013 season how dry it is out there.
Quoting 95. hydrus:

I always try to set realistic and positive goals for myself, and to become a better human being. It is mistakes like this where i stumble and have to start over in life. Thank you VA. Words of encouragement from good folks like you, helps me deal with with the tribulation and travail that seems to be common.


Thats what I am here for, only to help others.
Quoting 79. Patrap:

97L


Mean looking cloud...I say we seed it before it hits some island with rain, or even worse some breezes..Why does this happen...why?...pfft...
Quoting 90. Bucsboltsfan:



If they aren't going to do well until recon then why do you insist they should shift south?


I also seriously doubt they would send an aircraft into 97L in its current state. That would be a waste of resources IMO.
Quoting 101. VAbeachhurricanes:



Thats what I am here for, only to help others.
And it is appreciated...Godspeed VA..:)
Quoting 100. bigwes6844:

The Atlantic is reminding me of the 2013 season how dry it is out there.

I said the same thing...and apparently it threw people into a frenzy.2016 is 2013'ing.
Quoting 90. Bucsboltsfan:



If they aren't going to do well until recon then why do you insist they should shift south?


I'm not insisting they should shift South
I'm saying it is shifting South all you have to do is look on each run they have shifted South I don't need to insist because that is what it's doing
All you have to do is look at them

Blog much slower today.
Quoting 82. hydrus:

Crow is rather tasty..I have eaten quite a bit, and its not bad, specially when i,m really hungry..only problem is every time i fork it they flap around on the plate, knocking over my coffee.

A little more salt, it will hold down the wings.
Quoting 30. Patrap:

Weaker, west..stronger mo poleward.


We do Not want a CV seed in the Gom.





Notive the huge amount of moisture over Africa compared to early in the month...Major difference.
110. IDTH
Quoting 85. beell:

If the GFS is intermittent w/development of a system, continue to evaluate the overall synoptic environment using all standard levels and GFS based products (moisture, shear, land interaction, actual track evolution, etc) and make your best guess. Those overall conditions will usually not change much.

Conditions for both of these waves are far from perfect-and potential development is less than aggressive. That should tell you something right there. Run-to-run inconsistencies in the operational model can be as random as a butterfly farting in Brazil. Quit following surface "L's" around the chart. Figure out why the surface low is where it is. You might gain some skill.

If your not prepared to do that with ANY model, stick to the Intellicast, Accuweather, Weather Channel, FOX news etc, graphics.

Thank you, and please accept my apologies-my annual rant is over.
:)

This is what I don't get about the 12Z run, right around 54 hours the low weakens and energy enters the northern part of the eastern Caribbean. It is ventilated surrounded by shear but is under what looks to be the anticyclone. Also the sinking motion isn't very prevalent over that part of the Caribbean at that moment.







I understand why it doesn't develop further after that, as most of the energy becomes elongated as it goes over the mountains of Hispaniola but it moves off and ends up in the northern part of the Caribbean and it's the same old story but still nothing developing. This is what I don't get, you have an anticyclone over you, you have upward motion becoming more prevalent (according to the model) and you have the warmest ocean heat content at your disposal and yet it barely develops at all.







That's why I've completely discounted the GFS.
Quoting 37. CybrTeddy:

Thoroughly unimpressed with both 96L and 97L's chances. I believe both systems will struggle and die as they reach the Lesser Antilles due to a combination of a lack of vertical instability and fast trade winds. May be an interesting prelude to August though.


Teddy, I'm with you on this one. Neither one is very impressive. However, I do give a very good chance to 97L as it moves to the far western Caribbean. I think the John Hope rule will apply to 97L since the eastern Caribbean will be very hostile.
Quoting 107. CaribBoy:

Blog much slower today.


It happens when waves enter the waning stage. If 97L waxes later the pace will pick up :-)
Quoting 86. kmanislander:

Good day

97L is hanging on but that is about all for the moment. There is evidence of some turning but not a lot and the wave signature is very much that of an open wave trucking along at a good clip. It needs to slow down so as to be able to take advantage of the area between 55 and 62W for some organizing and strengthening. If it enters the Caribbean in its current condition then I would lower the odds of any further development materially until it reaches 75W and beyond, assuming it lasts that long. Tonight it will have the benefit of Dmax and close proximity to 55W so let's see what comes of that.


It will slow down just be patient
Quoting 108. cRRKampen:


A little more salt, it will hold down the wings.
Hello CR...I would, but no salt says me doc..i hate life...
Quoting 69. CybrTeddy:



The GFS, ECMWF, heck not even the CMC is showing any substantial development from either system. You can't pass that off as bad initiation.

Agreed. Not only that look at the factors at play 96L probably has a better shot right now based on its current conditions which could change. I would not encourage watching run to run model runs until you have a system developed and within 5-7 day window of landfall.
116. JLPR2
A bit of an improvement for 97L when compared to yesterday, but it still has a very long way to go.
Quoting 103. kmanislander:



I also seriously doubt they would send an aircraft into 97L in its current state. That would be a waste of resources IMO.


Well they not supposed to be flying into 97L till tomorrow
Quoting 107. CaribBoy:

Blog much slower today.
The Atlantic just can't seem to fix its dry air problem that has plagued the basin since 2011.The MJO has been absent in the Atlantic since I think that pile of hot air "Colin" came around.
Quoting 113. wunderkidcayman:



It will slow down just be patient


I wasn't aware I was being impatient and, as you know, I am not one of the bloggers who get all wound up when the action gets going and all "impatient" when it doesn't. Simply made what appeared to be an obvious observation and would appreciate not being characterized .
121. beell
Quoting 110. IDTH:


This is what I don't get about the 12Z run, right around 54 hours the low weakens and energy enters the northern part of the eastern Caribbean. It is ventilated surrounded by shear but is under what looks to be the anticyclone. Also the sinking motion isn't very prevalent over that part of the Caribbean at that moment.







I understand why it doesn't develop further after that, as most of the energy becomes elongated as it goes over the mountains of Hispaniola but it moves off and ends up in the northern part of the Caribbean and it's the same old story but still nothing developing. This is what I don't get, you have an anticyclone over you, you have upward motion becoming more prevalent (according to the model) and you have the warmest ocean heat content at your disposal and yet it barely develops at all.







That's why I've completely discounted the GFS.


I have not looked at any of this since last night but...You haven't discounted the GFS. You made a forecast or a general opinion based on your understanding of the synoptics it is presenting. Sometimes that's all you get. I hope your right-from a "guessing at the weather" viewpoint!

And there are other models, of course.
Quoting 119. kmanislander:



I wasn't aware I was being impatient and, as you know, I am not one of the bloggers who get all wound up when the action gets going and all "impatient" when it doesn't. Simply made what appeared to be an obvious observation and would appreciate not being characterized .


Lol no no I wasn't meaning it in that sense

123. IDTH
Quoting 121. beell:



I have not looked at any of this since last night but...You haven't discounted the GFS. You made a forecast or a general opinion based on your understanding of the synoptics it is presenting. Sometimes that's all you get. I hope your right-from a "guessing at the weather" viewpoint!

And there are other models, of course.

I understand there are other models and I will get to them, but so far this is on point on what the GFS has been like in the short range. It doesn't make sense with all the synoptics (new word introduced to my vocab thanks to you) it is showing. I'm not the best forecaster, in fact I consider myself to be quite the amateur but the GFS to me is the one that is making the least sense right now with what it is showing. That's all I wanted to get across.
Ok, so what's the deal with our two invests?
Quoting 124. Hurricanes101:

Ok, so what's the deal with our two invests?


Over-hyped.
126. Siker
Much higher support from the 12z GEFS compared to the last few runs:


Quoting 125. VAbeachhurricanes:



Over-hyped.


Based on the discussion going on in here? I thought we were allowed to discuss the tropics in here. Did that change?
128. Siker
Actually pretty sure every 12z GEFS member has a storm of some sort.
Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 11m
Example of ensemble trend in GOM that is not yet consistent (no green contour). Volatility in forecasts for 97L.
Quoting 127. Hurricanes101:


Based on the discussion going on in here? I thought we were allowed to discuss the tropics in here. Did that change?


Woah woah when did I say that? I just don't think they will develop, unlike others. Never said anything about other people having opinions.
Quoting 126. Siker:

Much higher support from the 12z GEFS compared to the last few runs:





BOC has been a hot spot. Will it be for 97L?
133. IDTH
.
So what I gathered from Dr Master's discussion is that the two waves are not really threating systems due to uncertain favorable conditions. Correct?
000
ABNT20 KNHC 291738
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving westward at 20-25 mph. The associated shower
activity is poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the
system any development should be slow to occur. Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring showers and gusty winds
to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
the eastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend. By the middle of next
week, the wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean Sea, where
conditions could be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure
system centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. However, recent
satellite wind data indicate that the low does not have a
well-defined circulation. Some development is possible during the
next day or two before the disturbance encounters a less favorable
environment over the central tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven
97L down too 10%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving westward at 20-25 mph. The associated shower
activity is poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the
system any development should be slow to occur. Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring showers and gusty winds
to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
the eastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend. By the middle of next
week, the wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean Sea, where
conditions could be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure
system centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. However, recent
satellite wind data indicate that the low does not have a
well-defined circulation. Some development is possible during the
next day or two before the disturbance encounters a less favorable
environment over the central tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
So what I gathered from Dr Master's discussion is that the two waves are not really threating systems due to uncertain favorable conditions ahead of them. Correct?
139. IDTH
I'd rather not post the images because it takes too long

Regarding the 0Z Euro, the reason nothing develops is because all that what's left get's plowed right into the heart of Hispaniola. It all eventually ends up in the GOM but nothing really becomes of it, the reason I believe is because that it drives itself into the Gulf coast without too much time over water as the spin started to become defined. I don't believe there was any significant shear (shear map isn't available with the ECMWF, correct me with shear if I'm wrong)So basically what I'm taking away from the Euro's latest run available is that the track will be the defining part of 97L and it's future.

The GFS there is nothing to take away from that run because it doesn't make sense.

The CMC makes more sense than the GFS because it actually explains why it doesn't develop on that run as the anticyclone is no longer there and it get's sheared to death in the northern Caribbean. By forecast hour 138 it ends up in BOC though and is in a non sheared environment, yet it doesn't strengthen it even though shear is extremely light in it's area and it's basically stalled. Also what doesn't make sense either is the upward motion (which is being projected on the model by that time) doesn't help 97L.

The Euro right now is the one that makes the most sense because it actually explains why it doesn't develop, while the CMC is good for about a few days, it really botches it up by hour 138 as what it shows with the environment does not match at all with what it's showing development wise with 97L.

Basically what I'm taking away from all these runs is, track will be crucial and keep an eye out on 97L as the system could possibly get into a favorable environment in the future or it also could not. Plenty of factors at play and much confusion.
NHC says 20-25 mph speeds, trying to earn Chantal's travel miles card, we will see if it can slow down and try to get its act together.
TWO is out and nothing much has changed

Quoting 141. wunderkidcayman:

TWO is out and nothing much has changed




yes it has 97L is down too 10% for now at lest but could go back up too 20 too 30% come the weekend
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving westward at 20-25 mph. The associated shower
activity is poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the
system any development should be slow to occur. Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring showers and gusty winds
to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
the eastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend. By the middle of next
week, the wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean Sea, where
conditions could be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

2. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure
system centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. However, recent
satellite wind data indicate that the low does not have a
well-defined circulation. Some development is possible during the
next day or two before the disturbance encounters a less favorable
environment over the central tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Beven
I do think that once 97L crosses 50W 97L will slow down

And I think once that happens the % will go up for 97L
Quoting 136. Tazmanian:

97L down too 10%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving westward at 20-25 mph. The associated shower
activity is poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the
system any development should be slow to occur. Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring showers and gusty winds
to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
the eastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend. By the middle of next
week, the wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean Sea, where
conditions could be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure
system centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. However, recent
satellite wind data indicate that the low does not have a
well-defined circulation. Some development is possible during the
next day or two before the disturbance encounters a less favorable
environment over the central tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Well 97L better slow down.
Quoting 136. Tazmanian:

97L down too 10%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving westward at 20-25 mph. The associated shower
activity is poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the
system any development should be slow to occur. Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring showers and gusty winds
to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
the eastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend. By the middle of next
week, the wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean Sea, where
conditions could be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure
system centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. However, recent
satellite wind data indicate that the low does not have a
well-defined circulation. Some development is possible during the
next day or two before the disturbance encounters a less favorable
environment over the central tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Well 97L better slow down.
Quite unusual to see a close-up of Suriname on the HWRF lol...

97L looks really good right now if it can slow down some more then it can really get going

Quoting 142. Tazmanian:



yes it has 97L is down too 10% for now at lest but could go back up too 20 too 30% come the weekend


Still not much has changed

As I just said once it start to slow and that should be once it's reaches around 50W
150. 882MB
97L reminds me a lot of Irene when it was developing in the same area. Last couple of frames is showing more thunderstorms firing near where the lowest pressures are. Also outflow looks decent and expanding. Tonight should be interesting as it nears warmer waters near 50-55 WEST. These systems always flare up and organize more when nearing the islands. Here in PR we are expecting heavy rain and some squalls. As of now, soils are a bit saturated, especially in the NW part of the island compared to this time last year, when we were in a terrible drought, with rationing of water.





Quoting 148. Tazmanian:

97L looks really good right now if it can slow down some more then it can really get going


I can see the spin in the animation, it's just lacking that convection on the center.
152. MahFL
Quoting 117. wunderkidcayman:



Well they not supposed to be flying into 97L till tomorrow


Sunday.
153. MahFL
Quoting 138. lurkersince2008:

So what I gathered from Dr Master's discussion is that the two waves are not really threating systems due to uncertain favorable conditions ahead of them. Correct?


Mostly, 96L is due to hit dry air, 97L though may develop when it gets south of Cuba.
154. IDTH


Still has the anticyclone over it. By the way if anyone says they know what's going to happen with this system, they truly don't know. Conditions are projected to get better by some models and both the CMC and the GFS's ensembles have it ending up in the BOC. Anything can happen with this system and that's why it should be monitored. Sure the System could lose it's anticyclone or just ram right into the mountains but we truly don't know anything about this systems future. Anything could happen.
AL, 97, 2016072912, , BEST, 0, 138N, 408W, 25, 1011, DB
AL, 97, 2016072918, , BEST, 0, 140N, 429W, 25, 1010, DB
Quoting 155. GeoffreyWPB:

AL, 97, 2016072912, , BEST, 0, 138N, 408W, 25, 1011, DB
AL, 97, 2016072918, , BEST, 0, 140N, 429W, 25, 1010, DB
Hmm, looks like the pressure is dropping.
At least one, either 97L or 96L, will become Earl. Probably 96L most likely. We will get Earl within the next few days. Even if it's only a short-lived TS
12z Euro.
Quoting 152. MahFL:



Sunday.


If it continues to look like this there is no reason for them to send a plane.
162. MahFL
96L went from this :



To this, that's why no TD yet. Also the dry does not seem to be heading that far south really :

163. MahFL
Quoting 157. Climate175:

Hmm, looks like the pressure is dropping.


As it should be, there is spin, it's a developing tropical low.
164. IDTH
Quoting 160. Climate175:

12z Euro.

Much different from the 0Z, as it's further south than the 0Z.
Quoting 152. MahFL:



Sunday.


There is one for Saturday 18Z
One on Sunday at 18Z
And another Monday 12Z

And there are no cancellation on any of them atm that I can see so mission is a go unless tomorrow morning if they issue a cancellation on the next POTD
Quoting 162. MahFL:

96L went from this :



To this, that's why no TD yet. Also the dry does not seem to be heading that far south really :


it's going through DMIN right now. It'll blow back up tonight.
12z Euro does not develop either invest. Keeps 97L as a potent wave axis though.
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters....
Quoting 167. VAbeachhurricanes:

12z Euro does not develop either invest. Keeps 97L as a potent wave axis though.
Much more vigorous than 00z.
171. Tcwx2

GFS consistent in showing BOC storm from remnants of 97L, or at least that is what appears to be the remnants. Still a week+ out but seems reasonable given circumstances. Basically stay alert not just because of this but in the wider view, it's about to be August. Hope everyone has an amazing day and stay weather aware.
172. Ed22
Quoting 150. 882MB:

97L reminds me a lot of Irene when it was developing in the same area. Last couple of frames is showing more thunderstorms firing near where the lowest pressures are. Also outflow looks decent and expanding. Tonight should be interesting as it nears warmer waters near 50-55 WEST. These systems always flare up and organize more when nearing the islands. Here in PR we are expecting heavy rain and some squalls. As of now, soils are a bit saturated, especially in the NW part of the island compared to this time last year, when we were in a terrible drought, with rationing of water.






It looks to be slowing down to me i'm looking at the latest frame here, it's not moving that quickly anymore; any one saw that?
173. IDTH
Consistent with the ram into Hispaniola.



Emerges off it though just south of Cuba

My thoughts for the day... 96L is a threat to briefly spin up into a TD, but doesn't look like a long term player. On the other hand 97L is no immediate threat, and while most indications are it won't be much of a long term player either, it's still worth watching. If it survives to the western Caribbean or Gulf, it may try to develop. Speaking more broadly, the SST configuration of the Atlantic right now is extremely favorable for an active season. As good as it gets, really. And yet, there's not a whole lot going on as we now hit the ~75 day peak window, and the models look pretty dull for the next 10 days, although we should never take them as gospel. So it'll be interesting to see what happens, whether we have another 2013 in the works where everything looked favorable and the season never took off, or another 2010, a very active but late blooming season. I still like my original forecast which lies in the middle.
Quoting 165. wunderkidcayman:



There is one for Saturday 18Z
One on Sunday at 18Z
And another Monday 12Z

And there are no cancellation on any of them atm that I can see so mission is a go unless tomorrow morning if they issue a cancellation on the next POTD


With the current structure they will cancel tomorrow. Heck, they just lowered the probability.
xxxx
97L/INV/XX/XX


its gotta put on the brakes too fast
hey guys l dont know much about tropical disturbance and l have a question, what are you calling a antycyclone upon a disturbance
178. ackee
What will become of 97L it's is getting a little better organize and as not reach magic line 50 west

A Strong tropical low
B TD
C Open wave
D Tropical Storm
El shear apart
Also very much worth watching these next few days is TD 06W in the West Pacific. Current indications are it will "shoot the gap" between the Philippines and Taiwan, and potentially head for typhoon status as it approaches the Hong Kong area in 4 days or so. A rather interesting track, with a lot of poleward motion required over the next 2 days for it to clear the Philippines. That's the expectation though.

Quoting 151. Climate175:

I can see the spin in the animation, it's just lacking that convection on the center.
its really not a spin more like cyclonic turning of the atmosphere a key ingredient for a storm
Quoting 177. david1979:

hey guys l dont know much about tropical disturbance and l have a question, what are you calling a antycyclone upon a disturbance


The anti-cyclone will be in the upper atmosphere over the low and mid level low- pressures. Anticyclones over top of storms help them "Breathe" and promote ventilation of the system.
182. IDTH
Quoting 171. Tcwx2:


GFS consistent in showing BOC storm from remnants of 97L, or at least that is what appears to be the remnants. Still a week+ out but seems reasonable given circumstances. Basically stay alert not just because of this but in the wider view, it's about to be August. Hope everyone has an amazing day and stay weather aware.

It was so weird because the GFS was showing favorable conditions in the northern Caribbean and it was surrounded by the it's anticyclone most of the time that it should've been strengthening, while the CMC on the other hand showed horrible conditions in the Caribbean but both the CMC and GFS agree on it emerging into the BOC. The CMC doesn't develop it but it shows favorable conditions in the BOC as well. I think it actually rammed into Mexico on the run and didn't get much time over water.
Quoting 178. ackee:

What will become of 97L it's is getting a little better organize and as not reach magic line 50 west

A Strong tropical low
B TD
C Open wave
D Tropical Storm
El shear apart
A or B.
97L may not be a fish after all.
Quoting 184. unknowncomic:

97L may not be a fish after all.


Whatever it is the path is west to wnw. A ton of obstacles ahead if it were to ever develop. It may have to wait until it gets into the southern gom or boc. Odds are low.
186. Ed22
Quoting 151. Climate175:

I can see the spin in the animation, it's just lacking that convection on the center.
Disagree somewhat, Convection is firing on all side of invest 97L and will continue to do so throughout this afternoon; it's looks to be slowing down some how.
187. IDTH
Sends it west, on a collision course for Central America it looks like.



Takes a northerly turn and it looks like it's headed for the BOC. WELL looks like the models are starting to agree on at least one thing now and that is that it could eventually end up there.


XXXX
96L/INV/XX/XX
Updated: Fri, 29 Jul 2016 18:30:04 GMT


Atlantic Basin


No Active Warnings
As of Fri, 29 Jul 2016 18:30:04 GMT
190. Tcwx2

Just your daily laugh.
Quoting 190. Tcwx2:


Just your daily laugh.


At least it's South Texas and not Houston👏
192. Tcwx2
LOL
Quoting 191. Bucsboltsfan:



At least it's South Texas and not Houston👏
193. IDTH
YEP! We finally have gotten consistency from both the GFS, CMC and ECMWF even if it is for one model run even if the CMC doesn't develop it because it rams into mexico, it still ends up in the BOC. Keep on alert for consistency of this possible scenario as it is still 7 days out and can definitely change.

194. IDTH
Quoting 191. Bucsboltsfan:



At least it's South Texas and not Houston👏

Track is something the Euro actually agrees with, not intensity of course but it is still 7 to 8 days out.



Okay I've been posting for a while, soon I got to go to work. Make sure you all hold down the fort!
and the euro is now on board with 97l becoming a named storm. Tropical storm heading into Texas
THANK YOU VEABEACHHURRICANES FOR YOUR ANSWER,I AM IN THE WINDWARD ISLAND AND WE DONT NEED ANYMORE RAIN ,GROUND IS SATURETED
Quoting 188. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


XXXX
96L/INV/XX/XX

What does the XXXX mean on top.
it looks like 97l will kick some smoke between 50 W and 55 W. there seems to be some organisation and banding in the north west.
Quoting 198. HurricaneAndre:

What does the XXXX mean on top.
T.C.F.A. ONCE NAVY ISSUES IT
An excellent indepth article in Nature -

180,000 forgotten photos reveal the future of Greenland’s ice

To tell whether the island’s glacial cap will melt away any time soon, researchers are poring over old pictures and drawings for clues to its past behaviour.


Danish geologist Lauge Koch (centre) and colleagues on the open-cockpit Heinkel plane that his team used to survey East Greenland in 1932.
( Wearing polar bear flying suits )

Quoting 197. Climate175:


Could be a hurricane with those hot waters.
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SIZE OF THE X'S DETERMINES WHICH STORM IS LIKELY TO DEV FIRST
204. 882MB
Quoting 193. IDTH:

YEP! We finally have gotten consistency from both the GFS, CMC and ECMWF even if it is for one model run even if the CMC doesn't develop it because it rams into mexico, it still ends up in the BOC. Keep on alert for consistency of this possible scenario as it is still 7 days out and can definitely change.




You can also see in this image 96L entering the Caribbean as a strong TW.
Quoting 200. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

T.C.F.A. ONCE NAVY ISSUES IT
You think they will soon?
caps lock sorry
Quoting 196. david1979:

THANK YOU VEABEACHHURRICANES FOR YOUR ANSWER,I AM IN THE WINDWARD ISLAND AND WE DONT NEED ANYMORE RAIN ,GROUND IS SATURETED



you dont need too yell please take your cap lock off
Quoting 186. Ed22:

Disagree somewhat, Convection is firing on all side of invest 97L and will continue to do so throughout this afternoon; it's looks to be slowing down some how.
After looking more carefully, I would have to agree.
Quoting 205. HurricaneAndre:

You think they will soon?
normally 60 percent or greater chance from NHC needed but sometimes they do issue before NHC depends on timing
Quoting 203. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SIZE OF THE X'S DETERMINES WHICH STORM IS LIKELY TO DEV FIRST
I think this one is likely to.
211. vis0
aniGIF

CREDIT:: NASA

OBS:: 2 Invest+ activity over Africa (Grothar is watching) and i hope its not man made  unless its Pablosyn BBQing for the entire WxU crew.

taking #%#$! off my chest::  IMAGES are at least 1 hour old...1 hour just to upload (NOT POST HERE that only took 2 mins).  Some country must be hacking lots of US servers cause i've never seen so many slow not weathger related (image hosting) sites. Thanks to imgbox, though long to load at 56k connections its always working.


image host
http://i.imgbox.com/ZTQE1ekj.gif
212. IDTH
Quoting 202. HurricaneAndre:

Could be a hurricane with those hot waters.

Lot of factors at play, much to figure out.
214. IDTH
Quoting 197. Climate175:



For some reason this looks like a bunch of streamers to me

Quoting 204. 882MB:



You can also see in this image 96L entering the Caribbean as a strong TW.


I thought that's what that was. Can't take your eye off that one either.
Latest Euro 96L to s texas 97L to Hispanola.
Robert Scribbler has taken Dr, Master's Grey Swansong For Tampa post and fleshed it out a bit -

Hothouse 2090: Category 6 Hurricane A Grey Swansong For Tampa

Tampa. 2090. Late September.

The stiff wind running off the Gulf of Mexico felt like a blast furnace. Ocean surface temperatures near 100 degrees Fahrenheit; air temperatures of 113 F, high humidity, and a smell like rotten eggs added to the overall insufferability. Unpleasant was a better word from a better time. Mere unpleasantness had long since fallen away before the new deadly edge that Nature had adopted.


Link
97L Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop.

Now the 12z NAVGEM out of nowhere is on board with the GFS and Euro.
Ernesto(2012) vibes?
222. JLPR2
Even though it is so far out, seeing the GFS ensembles agree enough to show a TS in the GOM is interesting.

*Oh and that's 97L.*

Interesting.
224. IDTH
Quoting 223. Climate175:

Interesting.

Yes it is. Little things are going to matter with where this storm goes and that will play a big role with it's intensity.
225. IDTH
New video from Mark Sudduth.

Link

97L IR/WV/Microwave RGB (IR [R], WV [G], MI89 [B])

From 1624UTC


12z CMC ensembles. So to sum it up, the afternoon models are liking 97L more.
Quoting 218. RobertWC:

Robert Scribbler has taken Dr, Master's Grey Swansong For Tampa post and fleshed it out a bit -

Hothouse 2090: Category 6 Hurricane A Grey Swansong For Tampa

Tampa. 2090. Late September.

The stiff wind running off the Gulf of Mexico felt like a blast furnace. Ocean surface temperatures near 100 degrees Fahrenheit; air temperatures of 113 F, high humidity, and a smell like rotten eggs added to the overall insufferability. Unpleasant was a better word from a better time. Mere unpleasantness had long since fallen away before the new deadly edge that Nature had adopted.


Link
That is so wrong, east of 100W Precipitation is suppose to increase with Climate Change, DC is not going to be a desert in 74 years.
Saying these things actually hurts the case because it is a bridge too far, and nobody, even the scientific community believes that would happen, and it feeds into the Hysterical Hippy narrative.
I guess the models will continue to change tracks as conditions warrant. Nothing is set in stone.
The waters in the Western caribbean and GOM have sat undisturbed now for almost two months.I think if 97L doesn't slow down its movement though it will hamper any time it has over these warm waters.Still a week out but if it continues at this fast pace it could be a saving grace for people down the road as the storm will not have time to get stacked properly.


231. ackee
97L seems to be slowing down
With 2016 to follow 2014,2015,as the warmest recorded year...one can easily math out the odds of that being chance alone.

The ob's defeat the odd's easily.


Ooh rah'
Quoting 230. washingtonian115:

The waters in the Western caribbean and GOM have sat undisturbed now for almost two months.I think if 97L doesn't slow down its movement though it will hamper any time it has over these warm waters.Still a week out but if it continues at this fast pace it could be a saving grace for people down the road as the storm will not have time to get stacked properly.



speed of the storm is vital but if it slows well we shall see
Quoting 228. Methurricanes:

That is so wrong, east of 100W Precipitation is suppose to increase with Climate Change, DC is not going to be a desert in 74 years.
Saying these things actually hurts the case because it is a bridge too far, and nobody, even the scientific community believes that would happen, and it feeds into the Hysterical Hippy narrative.


Exactly what is , " east of 100W Precipitation" mean ? That's a new one .
it could come to a dead stop at the triple nickel hope not cause that's the formation point
237. IDTH
Quoting 225. IDTH:

New video from Mark Sudduth.

Link



Great video, touches exactly on what I and what Michael Ventrice explained on why 96L hasn't developed and why 97L hasn't fired very many thunderstorms (other than it's fast movement). Sinking air is the problem and once the Atlantic becomes suppressed, get ready because as Mark Sudduth says a lot in his videos, "It's like a pot that's ready to boil."
#231

Seems to be slowing as she tucks in with some spiral inflow showing well on the N side this afternoon.

Quoting 233. Grothar:


its heading for WKC house u know that right
Quoting 216. Patrap:


My eyes see cloud tops building on that little bugger in the last couple frames. Latest frame observed was 1345 cdt.
Quoting 230. washingtonian115:

The waters in the Western caribbean and GOM have sat undisturbed now for almost two months.I think if 97L doesn't slow down its movement though it will hamper any time it has over these warm waters.Still a week out but if it continues at this fast pace it could be a saving grace for people down the road as the storm will not have time to get stacked properly.




Can you imagine how fast a hurricane could intensify...scary senario
243. IDTH
I'm out, got to go to work. Hopefully we'll have more info on the future of 97L when I come back.
Quoting 172. Ed22:

It looks to be slowing down to me i'm looking at the latest frame here, it's not moving that quickly anymore; any one saw that?

Yesterday the NHC was saying it was moving at about 30 MPH and in the latest TWO they're saying 20-25 MPH so the NHC agrees about it slowing down.
97 is doing alright entering warmer water. building convection as well a larger area. there is an itz to its south which many of the previous systems lacked too. hope our carib. friends keep us posted. good luck all this season
Quoting 235. RobertWC:



Exactly what is , " east of 100W Precipitation" mean ? That's a new one .
East of 100W longitude Precipitation is suppose to increase, basically the part of the county influenced by gulf moisture, will get wetter.
Quoting 240. Barefootontherocks:

My eyes see cloud tops building on that little bugger in the last couple frames. Latest frame observed was 1345 cdt.
Getting the pimples of thunderstorms in the latest frames.
248. ADCS
Quoting 235. RobertWC:



Exactly what is , " east of 100W Precipitation" mean ? That's a new one .


100 degrees W longitude is where the climate of the US transitions from humid to arid. You can see it on a satellite photo of the US, as it's where the landscape transforms from green to tan/brown.
Quoting 227. Climate175:

12z CMC ensembles. So to sum it up, the afternoon models are liking 97L more.


Poor S TX
251. 882MB
Looks like we are going to get some good rains from 97L if it stays as a TW. Either way I will continue to pay close attention, due to the fact on how well its been organizing since this morning.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291756
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
156 PM AST FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough will aid in the development of
showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Subsidence up
front the tropical wave will generate a more stable and drier
conditions tonight across our local region. A strong Tropical
wave located in the central Atlantic is expected to move quickly
west across the atlantic and reach our local region Saturday night
into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper level trough will continue to enhanced
shower and thunderstorm development mainly across the NW portions
of Puerto Rico. Most of these showers and thunderstorms will
quickly dissipate this evening or move west and over the Mona
Passage.

A subsidence area up front a strong tropical wave will generate a
dry and stable conditions across the local region on Saturday. A
strong tropical wave now located about 1100 miles east of Puerto
Rico will continue to move quickly west, at about 25 mph, and
reach the eastern Caribbean early Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms
could begin to affect the local area late saturday night due to
the large size of the leading edge. Models continue to suggest
large amounts of precipitable water associated to this wave,
suggested values of above 2.5 inches, therefore increasing the potential
for flooding to occur over isolated areas in PR and USVI. Also
another major impact associated to this weather feature will be
strong wind gusts mainly associated with thunderstorms and the
expected squally weather.

&&



XXXX
97L/INV/XX/XX
MARK
13.5N/49W
IMAGE CENTRE
Quoting 241. Adam2001:


Can you imagine how fast a hurricane could intensify...scary senario
That's why I'm hoping 97L doesn't slow down.We saw what happened last year with Joaquin when it slowed down over very warm waters.
vis. loop of the day my ruler says 97 is moving due west
Quoting 238. Patrap:

#231

Seems to be slowing as she tucks in with some spiral inflow showing well on the N side this afternoon.




Got a bit of the look where it may wanna do something.
257. vis0

Quoting 242. PedleyCA:


New Solar Device Removes Carbon Dioxide From the Atmosphere
can't open pg link ok but site not loading..maybe too many went at once or its nighttime and servers are solar powers ;- P
Quoting 253. washingtonian115:

That's why I'm hoping 97L doesn't slow down.We saw what happened last year with Joaquin when it slowed down over very warm waters.
wash its slowing down I think sorry
Quoting 257. vis0:


can't open pg link ok but site not loading..maybe too many went at once or its nighttime and servers are solar powers ;- P

give it up u roflol
The Atlantic doesnt have very favorable uplifting air above it atm - which is preventing these storms from taking off. Lots of sinking air especially in the Caribbean. Sinking air compresses cloud tops - forcing them to rain out which obviously is a no go in terms of quick organization of tropical systems.

This atmospheric pattern wont stick around for too long though and that will open up the Atlantic mid August for what should be a steady train of systems coming off the African coast.

The SAL (Saharan Air Layer - dry air) isnt remotely as intrusive as it has been in recent years and there is a tremendous amount of hot water just hanging about in the Atlantic. It's going to be an exciting 3 months as soon as the atmosphere allows for more uplift and taller cloud tops.
Quoting 228. Methurricanes:

Drought has a way of eating it's way into it's edges. Expanding heat domes are a fact of life. This was piece of fiction .
Always beware of the dreaded Cape Verde seedlings!
Quoting 249. Tazmanian:



Poor S TX
I hope this is not the grey swan or black swan,come to think of it ,theirs a swanee river in Texas..
Quoting 254. Patrap:

dat pot is berlin'
Quoting 225. IDTH:

New video from Mark Sudduth.

Link




Good video. Talks about the dry sinking air throughout the Atlantic. He thinks if 97L were ever to develop it would be in the extreme western Caribbean or BOC. Models seem to be hinting at the just a little bit.
Sea Height Anomaly


Looking good. And slowing up. Putting it's foot on the breaks.
all interests in
leeward islands
should monitor the progression of
invest 97L


centre of image is 13.5N/55.5W
Quoting 190. Tcwx2:


Just your daily laugh.
I take it that frame from GFS ENS1 240 hrs out develops the S TX storm from an unborn invest? 240 hr seems a little far out for current invests 97L or 96L. Just me playing Confusable, but I have a point. I'm able to figure this, but some pop-in and pop-out readers might not. They might panic. Something to keep in mind as the Atlantic will be more active here on out. Might be a good idea to focus on what is happening now that activity has begun.
Quoting 247. Climate175:

Getting the pimples of thunderstorms in the latest frames.
Exactly. We'll see if they develop into huge popping zits.
Depth of the 26C Isotherm

Please correct me if I am wrong here... But it is my belief that model runs are almost total garbage without the formation of a LLC. Also the bashing of the NHC is crazy.. they should name that already looks like a td, ts, hur to me. makes me crazy. I come here because alot of people on here have good information to relay. The NHC does not always explain there thinking on a particular storm so i come here for the discussions and to keep as current as I can. Living in S Fla. you need to be aware of whats happening.
Geez, almost at 50W. Wow. Going to be interesting if 97L survives the weekend.

Quoting 268. HurricaneAndre:


Looking good. And slowing up. Putting it's foot on the breaks.
Yet everyone here says that it will develop into a Hurricane and hit Florida.
Quoting 277. JoeBarnickel:

Yet everyone here says that it will develop into a Hurricane and hit Florida.

? Who is saying that?
Quoting 277. JoeBarnickel:

Yet everyone here says that it will develop into a Hurricane and hit Florida.
Yes every storm will hit floriduh this year get those supplies ready
The LSU Earth Scan Lab page will have much more when a depression forms.

Quoting 276. HaoleboySurfEC:

Geez, almost at 50W. Wow. Going to be interesting if 97L survives the weekend.


I disagree where x placement from the nhc.
97L RGB loop

Quoting 277. JoeBarnickel:

Yet everyone here says that it will develop into a Hurricane and hit Florida.
This post is so inaccurate its ironic.Its ironic because the poster is falsely accusing others all while being the only person that brought up Florida and a potential hurricane.
HurricaneTrackerApp @hurrtrackerapp 1hr
Here was the 12Z GEFS tracks. Plenty of time to watch. #97L
Quoting 277. JoeBarnickel:

Yet everyone here says that it will develop into a Hurricane and hit Florida.


Everyone?
Quoting 274. weaverwxman:

Please correct me if I am wrong here... But it is my belief that model runs are almost total garbage without the formation of a LLC. Also the bashing of the NHC is crazy.. they should name that already looks like a td, ts, hur to me. makes me crazy. I come here because alot of people on here have good information to relay. The NHC does not always explain there thinking on a particular storm so i come here for the discussions and to keep as current as I can. Living in S Fla. you need to be aware of whats happening.





you get this first then 97 slides by too the south anywhere from north of Cuba to just south of Cayman but it will likely be closer to Caymans maybe we watch the leeward first
Quoting 230. washingtonian115:

The waters in the Western caribbean and GOM have sat undisturbed now for almost two months.I think if 97L doesn't slow down its movement though it will hamper any time it has over these warm waters.Still a week out but if it continues at this fast pace it could be a saving grace for people down the road as the storm will not have time to get stacked properly.





Def DO NOT want a surface low to pop up in that hot soup!
Quoting 277. JoeBarnickel:

Yet everyone here says that it will develop into a Hurricane and hit Florida.
no one been saying that been a good discussion till now but its ok just don't get all trollish with yerself and its good
Quoting 230. washingtonian115:

The waters in the Western caribbean and GOM have sat undisturbed now for almost two months.I think if 97L doesn't slow down its movement though it will hamper any time it has over these warm waters.Still a week out but if it continues at this fast pace it could be a saving grace for people down the road as the storm will not have time to get stacked properly.



Oh my God, what happened to Belize and Guatemala?
and 2) Water Temps are not everything, SAL right now is a huge inhibiting factor on both 96 and 97L which are over good Water Temps.
Quoting 277. JoeBarnickel:

Yet everyone here says that it will develop into a Hurricane and hit Florida.


This blog is renowned for it's Florida wish casters! I keep telling them they will get it right eventually.
Quoting 287. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Def DO NOT want a surface low to pop up in that hot soup!

be great for a campbells tomato soup commercial
just kidding
its scary no doubt for many that are watching right now
that's all we can do till we get something
and know where its heading and who needs to get ready
all one can do
Poll time: We will see Earl....
A) before Aug 1
B) Aug 1-7
C) Aug 8-14
D) Aug 15-21
E) Aug 22-31
F) in September or after
I go with A due to 96L being close to depression stage
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE W ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE
ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS WITH
LITTLE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION OR WIND AND WAVES. THIS WAVE
WILL BE DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ALONG 45W IS ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION FROM 10-16N. THIS WAVE WILL REACH ALONG 55W LATE
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NE-E WINDS SPREADING W ACROSS THE TROPICAL
WATERS N OF 15N E OF THE LEEWARDS ON SAT...AND SHIFTING WNW
ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ON SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
E-SE WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND ALONG
THE N COAST OF CUBA BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A TROPICAL LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N23W ALONG A FOURTH TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE E ATLC. THE LOW HAS A GOOD CHANGE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN E OF 55W THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
Quoting 289. Methurricanes:

Oh my God, what happened to Belize and Guatemala?
and 2) Water Temps are not everything, SAL right now is a huge inhibiting factor on both 96 and 97L which are over good Water Temps.
I never said sst were everything.For the most part the models show a favorable environment once 97L gets to the N.W carib/western GOM.That's why I said the only thing that would be going against 97L would be if it was speeding throughout the caribbean and never had a chance to properly stack.I'm not blind.I can see SAL is currently a problem for 97L.I don't think its going to develop in the near term but could be a real problem in the long term.
Quoting 277. JoeBarnickel:

Yet everyone here says that it will develop into a Hurricane and hit Florida.


Um please don't insult those of us in Florida, thank you. If the steering pattern fits :)
48 hrs surface fcst shows a stationary Low in BOC.Link
I'm not going to lie, I am waiting for a Tropical storm to threaten the US because I want a new weather buzzword.
If a heat wave is now a "heat dome" and a cold snap is now a "polar vortex", what will be the new name for a Hurricane?
I propose Destructo-swirl.
Quoting 297. Methurricanes:

I'm not going to lie, I am waiting for a Tropical storm to threaten the US because I want a new weather buzzword.
If a heat wave is now a "heat dome" and a cold snap is now a "polar vortex", what will be the new name for a Hurricane?
I propose Destructo-swirl.


A Beach Day killer.
Quoting 292. lobdelse81:

Poll time: We will see Earl....
A) before Aug 1
B) Aug 1-7
C) Aug 8-14
D) Aug 15-21
E) Aug 22-31
F) in September or after
I go with A due to 96L being close to depression stage
A or B.
Quoting 292. lobdelse81:

Poll time: We will see Earl....
A) before Aug 1
B) Aug 1-7
C) Aug 8-14
D) Aug 15-21
E) Aug 22-31
F) in September or after
I go with A due to 96L being close to depression stage


I choose B.
The International Space Station will be going over 97L soon, and I have confirmed it and it is true, here is the link to the stream if you want to watch. Link
Quoting 272. Patrap:

Depth of the 26C Isotherm




South of Cuba Waters=Target Rich Environment for a Tropical Wave/Low Pressure slowing down there.
Quoting 301. Climate175:

The International Space Station will be going over 97L soon, and I have confirmed it and it is true, here is the link gor the stream if you want to watch.Link


Thanks!
Quoting 303. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Thanks!
Here is also an ISS Tracker, so you won't be wondering where it is. Link
Quoting 299. HurricaneAndre:

A or B.
beeeeee



B
Quoting 292. lobdelse81:

Poll time: We will see Earl....
A) before Aug 1
B) Aug 1-7
C) Aug 8-14
D) Aug 15-21
E) Aug 22-31
F) in September or after
I go with A due to 96L being close to depression stage


Gotta go B, though A wouldn't surprise me at all.
Quoting 292. lobdelse81:

Poll time: We will see Earl....
A) before Aug 1
B) Aug 1-7
C) Aug 8-14
D) Aug 15-21
E) Aug 22-31
F) in September or after
I go with A due to 96L being close to depression stage


I'll answer when Patrap decides to answer a poll.
Quoting 304. Climate175:

Here is also an accurate ISS Tracker, so you won't be wondering where it is. Link


Thanks again!
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
Much more concerned about 97L possible impact than 96L Think by Sunday, it will have the most attention
310. Ed22
Quoting 282. Patrap:

97L RGB loop


It's slowing down and its current location is 46.9 west and 13.9 north. Getting better organized as we speak, furthermore its getting over warmer ocean water...
Quoting 282. Patrap:

97L RGB loop


Starting to look a bit better than earlier today.
Quoting 292. lobdelse81:

Poll time: We will see Earl....
A) before Aug 1
B) Aug 1-7
C) Aug 8-14
D) Aug 15-21
E) Aug 22-31
F) in September or after
I go with A due to 96L being close to depression stage


Before August first
Quoting 309. washingtonian115:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
Much more concerned about 97L possible impact than 96L Think by Sunday, it will have the most attention
STWO code be possible. It's looking good now.
Quoting 313. pipelines:

Oh boy, models have dropped virtually all support for both invests, time to issue a suicide watch for the blog
Try again.The models develop 97L once it reaches the GOM.
A little on the muggy side as we are having a glancing blow of monsoon air.......Chance of thunder showers/storms thru Tuesday.......Hi today is 99 currently and 71 was the low this am.


Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Fri, 29 Jul 1:41 pm PDT
Most Recent Observation: Fri, 29 Jul 1:30 pm
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
29 Jul 1:30 pm 99 42 14 NNW 10G17 OK
29 Jul 1:20 pm 99 42 14 NNW 8G14 OK
29 Jul 1:10 pm 98 41 14 NNW 9G15 OK
29 Jul 1:00 pm 98 41 14 NNW 8G15 OK

14% Relative Humidity should not feel "muggy", but it does........LOL
Quoting 281. HurricaneAndre:

I disagree where x placement from the nhc.


MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.


A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ALONG 45W IS ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION FROM 10-16N. THIS WAVE WILL REACH ALONG 55W LATE
TONIGHT
Quoting 315. washingtonian115:

Try again.The models develop 97L once it reaches the GOM.


But it is going to Florida...........LOLOLOLOL
Quoting 297. Methurricanes:

I'm not going to lie, I am waiting for a Tropical storm to threaten the US because I want a new weather buzzword.
If a heat wave is now a "heat dome" and a cold snap is now a "polar vortex", what will be the new name for a Hurricane?
I propose Destructo-swirl.


Well, technically... a Tropical Cyclone.
Quoting 317. HaoleboySurfEC:



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.


A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ALONG 45W IS ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION FROM 10-16N. THIS WAVE WILL REACH ALONG 55W LATE
TONIGHT
Do you have an idea where they placed it. Over yonder.
Quoting 319. Articuno:



Well, technically... a Tropical Cyclone.
well "technically" a Heat dome is a ridge of High pressure (which btw Compresses the Atmosphere), but they just kind of made up a name for it.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

". . .recent satellite wind data indicate that the low does not have a well-defined circulation."

I suspected this yesterday. Satellite presentations are tricky without some kind of ground truth, or in this case, the next closest thing available. Cloud formations can be deceiving, and so can't be definitive by themselves.
Wow. Impressive heat dome. Scranton/Wilkes Barre is up to #2 all-time with today factored in! Incredible. Hottest since 1955.
Anyone who's been following my posts knows I correctly forecast December and June as the hottest on record for the CONUS. I now believe August will be the hottest on record, and possibly September. This will be known as the year of the eternal summer.
Quoting 233. Grothar:




97L not following GEFS tracks.


12z run
Quoting 327. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



12z run
Washi was right, that image does have an Ernesto Feel.
Quoting 223. Climate175:

Interesting.


Heading my way? Really :)

But the NHC's 10% in the last TWO is not too exciting though. :(
My thinking is that both 96L and 97L will continue west because of the SAL but i think they will get going in the Caribbean and turn into something more interesting
Quoting 310. Ed22:

It's slowing down and its current location is 46.9 west and 13.9 north. Getting better organized as we speak, furthermore its getting over warmer ocean water...


On the other hand, there's some seriously dry SAL-derived air encroaching on it while some of the available moisture is being tapped off by the adjacent ITCZ. It would seem that the ULL ahead of it might also be an inhibitor. The wind barbs associated with that at high altitude are mostly indicating 10 knots of shear, which isn't a lot, but the additive effect taking into account the speed of the wave might yield more. The wave may just end up as a decent enhancer for the monsoon over Mexico and the US Southwest.
Quoting 330. CaribBoy:



Heading my way? Really :)

But the NHC's 10% in the last TWO is not too exciting though. :(
Just maybe the 2-day and 5-day odds will increase, 2 day because of 97L looking better, and 5-day because of the new model consensus.
Quoting 304. Climate175:

Here is also an ISS Tracker, so you won't be wondering where it is. Link
i use this Link
Quoting 306. RavensFan:



Gotta go B, though A wouldn't surprise me at all.
i chose D
Quoting 315. washingtonian115:

Try again.The models develop 97L once it reaches the GOM.


If a Hurricane developed every time a model showed one at 200+ hours we would have no more coastline.

Models don't show anything in the next week, anything beyond that means next to nothing.
Greetings!
I just wanted to say that I have enjoyed lurking on this blog for many years and just finally decided to voice my appreciation for all of the information that you guys provide here. I am not a meteorologist nor do I have any level of skill for interpreting half of the stuff that you guys post but I am fascinated by the awesome effects of some of the nastiest stuff that mother nature has to offer. I have lived on the Alabama Gulf Coast for most of my life and have always been intrigued by hurricanes and severe weather. I have been through quite a few in my lifetime...Frederick being my first (telling my age here).

Anyway, just wanted to say thanks and I look forward to another interesting season and maybe learning a thing or three from you guys.

Back to lurk mode!
000
NOUS42 KNHC 291357
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 29 JULY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JULY 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-064

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 31/1800Z NEAR 16.0N 65.0W WITH 6-HRLY FIXES TO FOLLOW
AT 01/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.


JWP

NNNN
Quoting 337. MobileDon:

Greetings!
I just wanted to say that I have enjoyed lurking on this blog for many years and just finally decided to voice my appreciation for all of the information that you guys provide here. I am not a meteorologist nor do I have any level of skill for interpreting half of the stuff that you guys post but I am fascinated by the awesome effects of some of the nastiest stuff that mother nature has to offer. I have lived on the Alabama Gulf Coast for most of my life and have always been intrigued by hurricanes and severe weather. I have been through quite a few in my lifetime...Frederick being my first (telling my age here).

Anyway, just wanted to say thanks and I look forward to another interesting season and maybe learning a thing or three from you guys.

Back to lurk mode!
Welcome aboard. I'm Andre Brooks and I'm 18 and I'm going to be a meteorologist by going to Mississippi state university. If you have any questions, just ask. Remember to adhere to the rules, have fun, and track weather. :)
97L starting to get that "s" look in the cloud structure and trying to spin but speed is too great right now…time will tell.
342. vis0
TAKE MOTHER NATURE SERIOUSLY as to me vis0 take my theories seriously but my humor with 2 LBs of kosher salt.
 
CREDIT:: NASA (langley)
OBS:: Observing how 97L formed minus the other several billion years it needed can't show that Grothar has copyrights to those years. 
watch closely [not that close Taz you'll cross u'r eyes & dot your screen, w/nose)
Watch as what was to be 97L was smacked on the back of it "neck"
by an outflow causing something to fly out of either the outflow or 97L's piehole or a combo platter, which became 96L..a piece of Frank-futter?]

View centered ove Africa::
image host


...later from GOES-e::

image host


TAKE MOTHER NATURE SERIOUSLY
Quoting 336. pipelines:



If a Hurricane developed every time a model showed one at 200+ hours we would have no more coastline.

Models don't show anything in the next week, anything beyond that means next to nothing.
The models start developing it at around 150hrs which is not 200+ hours out and all show it in the same exact spot.Sorry someone hurt you today.
Been away for a while, taking care of my health glad I'm back on. 96L has a chance to develop but 97L is going to be the one to watch.
345. 882MB
Quoting 334. knightwarrior41:

i use this Link


Its going over it right now.
Quoting 338. LargoFl:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 291357
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 29 JULY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JULY 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-064

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 31/1800Z NEAR 16.0N 65.0W WITH 6-HRLY FIXES TO FOLLOW
AT 01/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.


JWP

NNNN



Hopefully the coc will be more to the NE lol, I won't survive another Ernesto or Isaac or Erika. All tracked through the Central L.A and were not able to bring more than 0.5 inch of rain, which is ridiculous.
Quoting 336. pipelines:



If a Hurricane developed every time a model showed one at 200+ hours we would have no more coastline.

Models don't show anything in the next week, anything beyond that means next to nothing.

If your forecasts focus only on "model output" you really missed the reason why scientists and meteorologists study weather. And if what you say is true why would the NHC waste resources focusing on tropical waves that could develop in 2 to 5 days? Models are only one part of the study of weather, there are satellite images, shear charts, MJO tracking are just a few.
LOL, ISS just went over 97L, all I could see was a teenager acne outbreak.
Quoting 337. MobileDon:

Greetings!
I just wanted to say that I have enjoyed lurking on this blog for many years and just finally decided to voice my appreciation for all of the information that you guys provide here. I am not a meteorologist nor do I have any level of skill for interpreting half of the stuff that you guys post but I am fascinated by the awesome effects of some of the nastiest stuff that mother nature has to offer. I have lived on the Alabama Gulf Coast for most of my life and have always been intrigued by hurricanes and severe weather. I have been through quite a few in my lifetime...Frederick being my first (telling my age here).

Anyway, just wanted to say thanks and I look forward to another interesting season and maybe learning a thing or three from you guys.

Back to lurk mode!


Nor do most of the members here. You'll fit right in, welcome!
18z NAM.
351. 882MB
Quoting 348. Climate175:

LOL, ISS just went over 97L, all I could see was a teenager acne outbreak.


Nice hot towers, it was pretty cool. Organization keeps improving. The more thunderstorms flaring up, the more the pressure lowers with 97L.
352. Kyon5
Quoting 348. Climate175:

LOL, ISS just went over 97L, all I could see was a teenager acne outbreak.
Quoting 347. sporteguy03:


If your forecasts focus only on "model output" you really missed the reason why scientists and meteorologists study weather. And if what you say is true why would the NHC waste resources focusing on tropical waves that could develop in 2 to 5 days? Models are only one part of the study of weather, there are satellite images, shear charts, MJO tracking are just a few.
I'm looking at the models as guidance but nothing is written in stone.However some pros in the weather field are saying to keep a close eye on 97L because it may find a sweet spot later on.No one is saying this will be a cat 5 (I'm not getting on you BTW).
97L looking good for Dmin. Dmax will be very interesting.


Looks like a new strong wave is emerging from Africa behind 96L right now (click to enlarge).
356. JLPR2
D-min as the Sun sets over 97L.


Outflow of dissipating Frank streaming over the CA coast, adding its moisture to the desert monsoon, with thunderstorms starting to pop over the Sierra. Moisture from Georgette pooling into a cutoff upper low further west.
Quoting 353. washingtonian115:

I'm looking at the models as guidance but nothing is written in stone.However some pros in the weather field are saying to keep a close eye on 97L because it may find a sweet spot later on.No one is saying this will be a cat 5 (I'm not getting on you BTW).

I agree there. Guidance is ok. Just a few days ago there was virtually nothing on the models in the long range and as we see today that has changed. Of course the Instability level rising, less SAL, some MJO over Africa played a part in that. More then likely the models picked up on that and that is why we have some development.
Or we could you know go on as usual and discuss like we have been without comments like these.

The discussions about 96L and 97L the last few days have been really good. There has been no wishcasting, doomcasting, people saying it is going to Florida or people being desparate for something to form, so why even bother with comments like these? Do not try to bait people please.




Really looks like as a very active season is a ahead, as far as Africa is concerned. But it depends much on the MJO if it pans out. Africa had been eager to spit out waves last year as well.
This is near 97L and that pressure is dropping like crazy.
NDBC
Location: 14.329N 46.082W
Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2016 20:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Average Wave Period: 6.0 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NE (52°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and steady
Air Temperature: 79.0 F
Dew Point: 75.4 F
Water Temperature: 81.0 F
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Location: 14.825N 51.016W
Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2016 19:00:00 UTC
Winds: E (90°) at 17.5 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.83 in
Air Temperature: 82.0 F
Dew Point: 75.0 F
Water Temperature: 82.2 F
Another buoy next to it.
Quoting 359. Hurricanes101:



Or we could you know go on as usual and discuss like we have been without comments like these.

The discussions about 96L and 97L the last few days have been really good. There has been no wishcasting, doomcasting, people saying it is going to Florida or people being desparate for something to form, so why even bother with comments like these? Do not try to bait people please.


Because there is a palpable excitement in the blog (just look at the post counts) due to these invests. No invests, no excitement, no excitement in ones life often leads to depression, depression sometimes leads to, well you know.
Quoting 368. pipelines:



Because there is a palpable excitement in the blog (just look at the post counts) due to these invests. No invests, no excitement, no excitement in ones life often leads to depression, depression sometimes leads to, well you know.


Biggest assumption I have ever seen made in just 2 sentences lol

So what, people are excited? That is because they love tracking these kinds of systems. If they didn't, they would not be here. I have seen very few comments of overhype or anything of the sort.

Quoting 362. HurricaneAndre:

This is near 97L and that pressure is dropping like crazy.
NDBC
Location: 14.329N 46.082W
Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2016 20:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Average Wave Period: 6.0 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NE (52°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and steady
Air Temperature: 79.0 F
Dew Point: 75.4 F
Water Temperature: 81.0 F


"Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and STEADY."
A very sad mind state to have.My kids,spouse and family make me happy and others on the blog also have hobbies that make them happy.
96L definetly has some possibility for further development. I don't think 97L is gonna do much.
Here's a map of 96L with like a billion overlays (yellow is shear, satellite is satellite and yellow and orangey stuff is dry air, and i added a overlay for the track according to the NHC which is custom added):

Quoting 368. pipelines:



Because there is a palpable excitement in the blog (just look at the post counts) due to these invests. No invests, no excitement, no excitement in ones life often leads to depression, depression sometimes leads to, well you know.


Ya... um I'm good without things to track and I lurk 24/7 on this blog. I agree there is more conversation sparked when there is something to track. But we don't all lock ourselves in the house from December to June. There is plenty more to enjoy in this world than one blog. But that's my opinion.


Forecast of anomalies in precipitation for the next days in Africa. More rains than usual quite north in the ITCZ. Source.


97L may explode tonight
I'm getting that crazy sun rain right now ...wish is was overcast like proper rain should be
However took temp down a couple of degrees

Happy tracking all
OMG there's an eye!!!

379. Siker
18z GFS coming in stronger; already a TC at 96 hours.

380. Tcwx2
Hi and welcome to the commenting side of the blog! You live rather close to me, I live in Andalusia. I am only 15 and have been through only one major hurricane that I can remember, Ivan. Don't worry about the lack of experience as probably 3/4 of the members here have no experience either. You won't believe the amount of lurkers here that eventually become members, me being one of them. Hope for a safe but fun and enjoyable ride this hurricane season!
Quoting 337. MobileDon:

Greetings!
I just wanted to say that I have enjoyed lurking on this blog for many years and just finally decided to voice my appreciation for all of the information that you guys provide here. I am not a meteorologist nor do I have any level of skill for interpreting half of the stuff that you guys post but I am fascinated by the awesome effects of some of the nastiest stuff that mother nature has to offer. I have lived on the Alabama Gulf Coast for most of my life and have always been intrigued by hurricanes and severe weather. I have been through quite a few in my lifetime...Frederick being my first (telling my age here).

Anyway, just wanted to say thanks and I look forward to another interesting season and maybe learning a thing or three from you guys.

Back to lurk mode!
381. Tcwx2

Wow, already?!
Quoting 363. bigwes6844:



That cluster just north of the Gulf of Guinea looks especially interesting, suggestive of a wind max in the easterly low level jet which might translate to spin-up enhancement if it makes it to the coast.
Quoting 375. CaribBoy:



97L may explode tonight
That is interesting.
The thing is I think it will have trouble getting past a 50mph tropical storm east of Jamaica, because 3/4th of inflow channels are chock full of SAL, maybe when it gets into the Western Caribbean and the SAL has been sufficiently modified, it will have a chance to really strengthen, if it doesn't truck at 25mph, or get too close to Honduras.
Locally here,big Summa Boomer inbound.


Its a mothership.




going through my hurricane kit tonight, making my lists. just in case...if not then i have twinkies! who doesn't love some hurricane twinkies....
97L just passed this Buoy.
97L RGB

389. Tcwx2

SAL doesn't appear to be an issue at this time.
We'll see what happens tonight as 97L approaches 55W. The eastern Caribbean is notoriously harsh on developing systems, but 55W tends to be a friendly longitude as SSTs and TCHP start to climb there. Combined with DMAX, maybe it could be in for a good night. Given it's speed though, I wouldn't expect anything too special.

I would watch ANY storm that crosses in the Western Carribean Sea..... I have a very bad gut feeling with the low shear and the storm just then developing that it could rapidly intensify if the conditions warrant which if there is low shear will permit that... The Gulf while not at risk right now just needs to keep an eye on how this wave turns out. (97L)
Quoting 387. stormchaser19:

97L just passed this Buoy.



Pressure relatively stable, not much down
Last fames of viz on 97L

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 389. Tcwx2:


SAL doesn't appear to be an issue at this time.
Wow look how moist the caribbean is on this run.Don't think I've seen that in years.
398. TXCWC
EURO/GFS/UKMET All onboard for future development of 97L in the Western Carribean. I call that pretty good support
Quoting 380. Tcwx2:

Hi and welcome to the commenting side of the blog! You live rather close to me, I live in Andalusia. I am only 15 and have been through only one major hurricane that I can remember, Ivan. Don't worry about the lack of experience as probably 3/4 of the members here have no experience either. You won't believe the amount of lurkers here that eventually become members, me being one of them. Hope for a safe but fun and enjoyable ride this hurricane season!
There are many reasons that there is more interest on this blog when invests develop in the Atlantic. Some of us, like me, just lurk and comment rarely, but we lurk on this blog site because we live right in the potential pathway of these storms. We glean through the information posted looking for pertinent information, especially on the potential pathways of these developing storms, to see if we may have to prepare for a storm or hurricane. I can't say enough for how valuable this site is to many of us, and besides all the great information posted, we get to enjoy the variety of posts ranging from very educational to what I would have to define as just "interesting"!
Quoting 290. HurricaneHunterJoe:



This blog is renowned for it's Florida wish casters! I keep telling them they will get it right eventually.


Kind of toasty down there, was 97.6 here, 95.9 now RH 32%, AC on..
402. vis0
On 97L nearer to Caribbean the flow seems to create an eye-look


but here with 96L
image host
off(closer to) Africa the top canvas has moved to reveal what looks like a low level eye.
I posted this earlier but don't know why it didn't go through but here we go

Quoting 175. Bucsboltsfan:



With the current structure they will cancel tomorrow. Heck, they just lowered the probability.


or between now and tomorrow 97L can work hard and get even better organized and them boom recon flight in the afternoon

just wait and see what it does ya
Quoting 367. bigwes6844:




Good heavens! A Cat 2 storm threatening Texas by the end of next week?