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Twelve U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011 so far: NOAA

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:11 PM GMT on December 08, 2011

The official tally of billion-dollar U.S. weather disasters in 2011 is now twelve, announced NOAA administrator Jane Lubchenco in a speech given yesterday at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. This is the greatest number of billion-dollar weather disasters in U.S. history, besting the record of nine set in 2008. Dr. Lubchenco said that at least two additional disasters, the October 29 snowstorm in the Northeast, and the flooding from Tropical Storm Lee in early September, may surpass the $1 billion mark, by the time all damage estimates are tabulated. This would bring the 2011 tally to fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters, a truly astonishing level of destruction for one year. The damages from the twelve official billion-dollars disasters is $52 billion, making the 2011 the 4th most expensive year for billion-dollar weather disasters in history. Damage estimates from natural disasters are fraught with uncertainty, and it is not usual for different insurance companies to give damage estimates a factor of two different for the same disaster. Insurance broker AON Benfield estimates that there have been at least sixteen billion-dollar weather disasters in the U.S. so far in 2011, according to their November Catastrophe Recap report. Included in their tally, but not in NOAA's, are severe weather outbreaks on July 10 - 14 and August 18 -19 in the Plains that caused $1.25 billion and $1.1 billion in damage, respectively, plus $1 billion in damage from Tropical Storm Lee's floods, and $3 billion in damage from the October 28 - 30 snowstorm in the Northeast.


Figure 1. Billion-dollar U.S. weather disasters in 2011 as officially recognized by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in early December, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Jeff Masters

Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

wow thanks doc!
Do we have any data that supports this many weather related disasters before 1980? I don't believe the records go as far back as the 1880's, but I'm curious about the decade of the 1940's.

Also, couldn't the rapid world population growth over the past 30 years and the enormous population shifts toward the coast of oceans and other high risk areas (near volcanoes, fires, faults, tornado alley, floodplains, deserts, etc. also explain this year's unbelievable number?

Thanks Doc.
OUCH! Thanks Doc!
2005 looks rather low on that graph; the hurricane season of that year alone caused almost $160 billion in damage.
Weather for sure seems to be getting more chaotic whether people want to accept it or not. Climate is changing and that is fact!
Thanks Jeff...
I'm really interested in the 17th century. Of course there were a lot less of us and a lot fewer expensive buildings.
Spring tornado outbreak was by far the worst IMO.



306. taistelutipu 6:22 PM GMT on December 08, 2011

"Do you mean the record since records began or the record for this event in particular?

165 mph is the record for this event and 173 mph is the official record dating from 20 March 1986 in the same location, Cairngorm. There is an unofficial record of 177 mph from the Shetland islands recorded in 1962."

Thanks for your response to my question in the previous blog taistelutipu.
Joplin Tornado. Look at the lightning Bolt coming out the side of the Tornado.

Lack of Cold WX across FL and Gulf Of Mexico could spell an early tornado season in 2012. Cold shelf waters help in delaying the onset of tornado season and if we don't get a significant blast over the next month then we could be in trouble across the south again.

Quoting spbloom:
Re possible AGW causation of this storm:

Hard to know absent careful analysis, but just to note that this is the sort of thing we should expect more of since the entire ocean-atmosphere circulation is shifting. But no worries, right?




No worries Nea Jr
More people, more infrastructure, more sheep running around=

More for good ol Mother Nature to destroy....simple answer. She doesn't even have to be worse, man has set itself up for this and now you will see what she is capable of doing.

Here's a good article (not too in depth) about 2011 natural disasters in the LA Times LINK They note that Katrina totaled 145 Billion.. Just think how much a direct hit on SFL would be.. could be the first trillion dollar natural disaster.. Here' hoping we don't find out..
The sky is falling?! worst year on record for natural disasters....we aint seen nuttin yet. Keep on building and watch what happens. Nature hasn't done anything different, man is trying to control and build and aint gonna fly
Check this.. 2 million dollar wind turbine explodes in Scotland due to high winds... not good!

link
Barbs dont go any higher
Police officer among 2 killed in Virginia Tech shootings




Same school again
Quoting JNCali:
Check this.. 2 million dollar wind turbine explodes in Scotland due to high winds... not good!

link
wow!
thanks for sharing this link.
Quoting JNCali:
Check this.. 2 million dollar wind turbine explodes in Scotland due to high winds... not good!

link


Looks like it was more than a bad day for a wind turbine. Looking at the pictures, I feel certain that everyone was having a bad hair day as well. ;-)

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Lack of Cold WX across FL and Gulf Of Mexico could spell an early tornado season in 2012. Cold shelf waters help in delaying the onset of tornado season and if we don't get a significant blast over the next month then we could be in trouble across the south again.

I believe there will be a significant severe weather outbreak mid to late December..More late than middle..jmo
How much of the increased damage expense is due to a lack of unpopulated areas for disasters to hit, more insured property to report damage to, and people walking away, rather than rebuilding?
If people are underwater on property, it may be much easier to declare a total loss, that rebuild what is there.
I'm sure this has some effect on damage claims.
Thank goodness for Portlight and all the relief agencies.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALENGA (01U)
3:00 AM WST December 9 2011
==============================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Alenga, Category Two (981 hPa) located at 19.6S 100.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 20 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 21.1S 102.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.6S 103.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 22.8S 105.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 24.1S 105.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Tropical Cyclone Alenga was located by microwave and IR satellite imagery over the past 6 hours. Alenga appeared to peak near 0300 UTC with a well defined eye with DVORAK DT of 5.0. In the last 6 hours the system has started to appear sheared, with a shear pattern giving a DVORAK DT of 3.5. Due to a recent convective blow-up, an embedded centre pattern yields 4.5 [LG]. Pattern adjusted MET is 3.5 and has been favoured, resulting in FT of 3.5. CI held higher at 4.0 and 10 minute mean wind is set at 60 knots. ADT has begun to fall since peaking at a CI of 5.7 and is at 3.6 at 1815 UTC.

The WNW shear has increased to 20-30 knots and is likely to further increase in the next 12 hours as an upper low and trough approach from the west. Consequently Alenga should continue to weaken, assisted by cooler SST's.

NWP guidance is quite consistent with general southeast motion likely over the next 24 hours due to the upper trough, then possibly tending more southerly or southwesterly as the system shears and the low level circulation is steered by the surface ridge to the south. Gales may persist to the south of the system in the tight easterly pressure gradient with a high pressure system further south.
Quoting hydrus:
I believe there will be a significant severe weather outbreak mid to late December..More late than middle..jmo


I believe your right about that. Interesting setup taking shape on the models for mid to late Decemeber.

Kinda neat lookin...
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I believe your right about that. Interesting setup taking shape on the models for mid to late Decemeber.



Any cold air for south Florida?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Any cold air for south Florida?


Not anytime soon my friend.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Not anytime soon my friend.


Florida looks to be warm all December except for the Panhandle and north FL (Which isn't Florida to me)
Quoting hydrus:
Kinda neat lookin...


Looks like an active southern branch setting up for the winter months. SNOW for the south this winter? Cold air combined with lots of Pacific moisture. Well See!
Off topic, but all-too-familiar:

2 people shot and killed at Virginia Tech.
Looked pretty ugly outside, but certainly not as bad as Scotland. Been quite a stormy season so far and not even in the prime period of 'windstorm season', which is January. Wonder if it'll continue? Pressure was probably in the region of 957mb, which is pretty strong.

Not very often you hear about hurricane force winds in an English accent! While the UKMET was right to raise the red warning, I think the strength of the winds might have been slightly underestimated. Still, pretty good job, bombing storms can be a pain to predict. Amazing how there sounds to be no fatalities, which is great news.
Quoting Cotillion:
Looked pretty ugly outside, but certainly not as bad as Scotland. Been quite a stormy season so far and not even in the prime period of 'windstorm season', which is January. Wonder if it'll continue? Pressure was probably in the region of 957mb, which is pretty strong.

Not very often you hear about hurricane force winds in an English accent! While the UKMET was right to raise the red warning, I think the strength of the winds might have been slightly underestimated. Still, pretty good job, bombing storms can be a pain to predict. Amazing how there sounds to be no fatalities, which is great news.


The forecast was for some rare 90mph gusts, but today some readings where topping 100mph and one 165mph gust! Just slightly underestimating then...

One model I looked at is showing a 940mb low NW of Scotland in a week... Definately not seen so many deep lows in such a short timeframe.

Mars Water: Opportunity Rover Finds Gypsum, 'Slam-Dunk' Evidence That Water Flowed On Red Planet

NASA's Mars Rover Opportunity has found what scientists believe is the most convincing evidence to date that water may have flowed on the Red Planet.

The rover, which has been crawling along the Martian surface for 90 months, found what appears to be veins of the mineral gypsum, a hydrated calcium sulfate that on Earth is used to make drywall.

(PHOTOS BELOW.)

"This tells a slam-dunk story that water flowed through underground fractures in the rock," Steve Squyres, a planetary scientist at Cornell University and the principal investigator for Opportunity said in a NASA statement. "This stuff is a fairly pure chemical deposit that formed in place right where we see it. That can't be said for other gypsum seen on Mars or for other water-related minerals Opportunity has found. It's not uncommon on Earth, but on Mars, it's the kind of thing that makes geologists jump out of their chairs."

According to NASA, the rover found several similar veins on the rim of the Endeavour crater, but scientists have honed in on a 16 to 20 inch-long strip about as wide as a thumb that they've nicknamed "homestake."

The Opportunity has traveled 20 miles since it arrived on Mars in 2004, but this is the first time it has observed a mineral deposit like this.

"This is the single most powerful piece of evidence that water once flowed on Mars that has been discovered," Squyres said, according to Wired. "There's no ambiguity about this."

Squyres spoke to reporters at the American Geophysical Union's Fall Meeting in San Francisco on Wednesday.

This isn't the first mineral evidence that water may have flowed on Mars, but Squires told the BBC that this gypsum deposit may indicate a less-acidic water supportive of microbial life.

"The other waters ... were probably very acidic - pH of five, four, three. Gypsum doesn't require that, and so this may hint at a kinder, gentler chemistry of the water for life," Squyres told BBC News.

The solar-powered rover is currently preparing for its fifth winter, exploring areas around the crater where it will be exposed the sunlight.

Opportunity and its twin, Spirit, reached opposite sides of Mars in 2004, but NASA lost contact with Spirit in 2010. In August, Opportunity finished a nearly three-year, 13-mile trek to reach the Endeavour crater.

In November, NASA's Curiosity, a $2.5 billion, nuclear-powered rover the size of a car, launched from Cape Canaveral, Fla. The Mars Science Laboratory, as it's called, is currently on a 354 million-mile trek to the red planet and should arrive in August of 2012.
Not sure if anyone posted this on the old blog, but the TCR for Ophelia is out.

Link

Nothing really changed.
Wow. That's got to be a record for the shortest blog entry by the Doc.... lol.... interesting stuff, though.

Afternoon from an overcast Nassau, BTW. I hear we may get down into the fifties overnight here. Great weather for Junior Junkanoo 2011.

Quoting SPLbeater:
Barbs dont go any higher
yes they do. Do you mean the colors? Because barbs do go higher than that.
No one's gonna say anything about the shooting at Va. Tech? I'm pretty shocked.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow. That's got to be a record for the shortest blog entry by the Doc.... lol.... interesting stuff, though.



This one didn't even have a picture!
Time for an avatar change :)
For those of you who missed it yesterday:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
For those of you who missed it yesterday:

hmm little lower than the 15-18 you were saying two days ago. I'd have to agree more with this one.

At this point though predictions really don't mean much.
Re: 10. petewxwatcher. You're very welcome. I was trying to find out whether the 165 mph (265 kph) are the highest wind speed ever measured in Europe. There are claims, that the winter storm Wiebke in 1990 had higher gusts of 285 kph (177 mph). But just like the inofficial record on the Shetland Islands of 177 mph I can't find any official source for it. still searching though.
Quoting TomTaylor:
hmm little lower than the 15-18 you were saying two days ago. I'd have to agree more with this one.

At this point though predictions really don't mean much.

Yeah, I changed them just a little upon TSR/CSU's releasing of their predictions, but these are final...Until April. :P
Brian Norcross live on Florida Keys climate change and sea level rise.

Link


What I find amazing is the fact that there are palm trees growing at latitude 55°48'N! Gotta love the gulf stream!
Quoting taistelutipu:
Re: 10. petewxwatcher. You're very welcome. I was trying to find out whether the 165 mph (265 kph) are the highest wind speed ever measured in Europe. There are claims, that the winter storm Wiebke in 1990 had higher gusts of 285 kph (177 mph). But just like the inofficial record on the Shetland Islands of 177 mph I can't find any official source for it. still searching though.
lol whata name

Shetland islands
Quoting SPLbeater:


pfft. yeah, i did. you know why? because if i didnt, i would be leaving out the truth behind why we dont need to be goin crazy of a few small changes, and if i left him out i would be missiing part of the puzzle.

do you even realize how stubborn, ignorant, and unintelligent you look right now?

You were already called a troll and a scizophrenic on the last blog.

...Just wondering if you have any social awareness
Quick moisture return here in C FL. We may not even dip below 60 tonight here now that a thick overcast has settled in. Also by the way I highly doubt Nassau will get anywhere close to 50's tonight.

Quoting TomTaylor:
do you even realize how stubborn, ignorant, and unintelligent you look right now?

You were already called a troll and a scizophrenic on the last blog.

...Just wondering if you have any social awareness

No, because according to him, he is standing up for his lord no matter what happens.

Its okay to have a religion, and its okay if you don't. However, bringing it on the blog and telling people you're praying for them just because they don't believe what you believe is wrong. And, this discussion over religion has got to stop.
Daily Details for
Nassau International Airport, The Bahamas

Today Tonight

Mostly Cloudy Right Now
81°F

Feels Like
83°F

Wind: From NE at 16 mph
Humidity: 65%
UV Index: 0 Low


Sunrise: 6:43 AM Local Time
Avg. High: 79°F
Record High: N/A



Scattered Showers Overnight Low
72°F


Precip
30%

Wind: From NE at 12 mph
Humidity: 88%


Sunset: 5:21 PM Local Time
Avg. Low: 64°F
Record Low: N/A


To say that nassau will be in the 50's is an exaggeration. LOL! Especially with dewpoints near 70 right now at the airport.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, because according to him, he is standing up for his lord no matter what happens.

Its okay to have a religion, and its okay if you don't. However, bringing it on the blog and telling people you're praying for them just because they don't believe what you believe is wrong. And, this discussion over religion has got to stop.


Nice avatar!
Ok, got something official now: the weather station run by the German meteorological office. They recorded a gust of 335 kph / 208 mph on the Zugspitze, Germany's highest peak on June 12 1985. pdf in German, records on page 3 of 4
Chilly, but Seasonally nice.

Uptown, New Orleans
Elevation
20 ft

Station Select
Now

Clear
Temperature
48.9 F
Feels Like 49 F


Tonight and tomorrow...high pressure will continue to dominate at the surface before finally pushing off to the NE late tomorrow ahead of the re-enforcing cold front.

Skies are expected to be mostly clear tonight with light winds.
Dewpoints remain in the upper 20s to lower 30s north and upper 30s to near 40 along the sela coast. As the surface high pushes further away to the NE tonight the coldest temperatures will occur over the Northshore and southwestern MS/MS coast tonight.

No freeze warning will be issued for this areas as there have been a number of below freezing nights now. Not expecting a hard freeze as lows
should remain above 26.

Morning lows will be a tad warmer over the
river parishes while the southshore should see similar morning lows tomorrow as they did this morning. For tomorrow highs will be a tad warmer.

H925 temperatures will be a degree or two warmer and skies should generally be mostly sunny.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Nice avatar!

Thanks.

You should get one.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Quick moisture return here in C FL. We may not even dip below 60 tonight here now that a thick overcast has settled in. Also by the way I highly doubt Nassau will get anywhere close to 50's tonight.



Wouldn't be surprised if I stay above 70 .. :P
Quoting SPLbeater:
To all the bloggers out there who want me to stop, i have a message for you

I spent hours last night witnessing and pushing through the harsh comments, because i dont want to see anybody go to hell. I have planted the seed and done my part, it is now God's turn to amplify what i have done. rejecting Christ is not a good thing, Christ made earth. Christ made you. Christ died for you.
Everybody is in my prayers, hopefully your eyes will be opened very soon. I am done on this topic

That is your opinion, not fact.

Remember that.
Don't know if anyone noticed with all of the arguing, but Ophelia's TCR is out....

Link
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Don't know if anyone noticed with all of the arguing, but Ophelia's TCR is out....

Link

Yes, it has been noted three times now. =P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, it has been noted three times now. =P


Didn't notice..... Must have been earlier and I didn't see it because I just got on, and all I saw was a religious argument.
Quoting SPLbeater:
To all the bloggers out there who want me to stop, i have a message for you

I spent hours last night witnessing and pushing through the harsh comments, because i dont want to see anybody go to hell. I have planted the seed and done my part, it is now God's turn to amplify what i have done. rejecting Christ is not a good thing, Christ made earth. Christ made you. Christ died for you.
Everybody is in my prayers, hopefully your eyes will be opened very soon. I am done on this topic


Well now that your "SEED" is planted your job is done... I believe that you mean well, but at the same time your not going to force anyone to believe what you believe. The way you structure your comments refers to the idea that you are inferior to most, which I highly doubt. Whats good for you is not necessarily good for others, people are different and the least effect way of influencing others is by criticizing them. This is only what I have witnessed from you. Plus and I apologize for bringing it up but I highly doubt that the big man upstairs would appreciate the fact that you repeatedly tell people that they are going to hell. That's just not cool man, highly highly hypocritical for someone who labels themselves as such good christian.
and btw Christ did not make us, humans were walking long before he came around...
That's pretty amazing.

24 Hour Loop
Quoting SPLbeater:


its fact. America was founded on Christianity. thats why the pilgrims came here in the first place. Christianity is based on truth from the father, not some made up cult or religion nowadays. (AKA man's way of doing things)

you say i talk about religion too much. i havnt talked about religion one time


PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE NEVER SAY THAT AGAIN!!!!!

The US was founded on the ideas that everyone could have the freedom to have their own religion and the US does technically not have a national religion.

State and religion should never mix.
Quoting SPLbeater:


its fact. America was founded on Christianity. thats why the pilgrims came here in the first place. Christianity is based on truth from the father, not some made up cult or religion nowadays. (AKA man's way of doing things)

you say i talk about religion too much. i havnt talked about religion one time

No, American was founded by England people because they wanted their own freedom and the ability to practice whatever religion THEY wanted. Maybe when you take Civics & Economics you'll learn that instead of believing everything that is told to you.
Quoting taistelutipu:


What I find amazing is the fact that there are palm trees growing at latitude 55°48'N! Gotta love the gulf stream!

I'm doubtful they have palm trees growing on open ground in Scotland. Also, you might want to check this out.

Climate mythology: The Gulf Stream, European climate and Abrupt Change

"... the northward heat transport by the Gulf Stream is the reason why western Europe enjoys a mild climate, much milder than, say, that of eastern North America. This idea was actually originated by an American military man, Matthew Fontaine Maury, in the mid nineteenth century and has stuck since despite the absence of proof.

"We now know this is a myth, the climatological equivalent of an urban legend. In a detailed study published in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society in 2002, we demonstrated the limited role that ocean heat transport plays in determining regional climates around the Atlantic Ocean."


"We showed that there are three processes that need to be evaluated:

1. The ocean absorbs heat in summer and releases it in winter. Regions that are downwind of oceans in winter will have mild climates. This process does not require ocean currents or ocean heat transport.

2. The atmosphere moves heat poleward and warm climates where the heat converges. In additions, the waviness in the atmospheric flow creates warm climates where the air flows poleward and cold climates where it flows equatorward.

3. The ocean moves heat poleward and will warm climates where it releases heat and the atmosphere picks it up and moves it onto land.

"Using observations and climate models we found that, at the latitudes of Europe, the atmospheric heat transport exceeds that of the ocean by several fold. In winter it may even by an order of magnitude greater. Thus it is the atmosphere, not the ocean, that does the lion's share of the work ameliorating winter climates in the extratropics. We also found that the seasonal absorption and release of heat by the ocean has a much larger impact on regional climates than does the movement of heat by ocean currents."
Quoting SPLbeater:
To all the bloggers out there who want me to stop, i have a message for you

I spent hours last night witnessing and pushing through the harsh comments, because i dont want to see anybody go to hell. I have planted the seed and done my part, it is now God's turn to amplify what i have done. rejecting Christ is not a good thing, Christ made earth. Christ made you. Christ died for you.
Everybody is in my prayers, hopefully your eyes will be opened very soon. I am done on this topic


Whats in bold is what I was refering to. By saying this you believe that some of us are going to hell and that it is for some reason your duty to try to "save us", essentially your telling people that they are going to hell.
I goggled this for you just in case your ACCIDENTALLY read over it in the Bible.... JUDGE NOT... THAT YOU BE JUDGED
"Seasonal storage and release accounts for half the winter temperature difference across the North Atlantic Ocean. But the 500 pound gorilla in how regional climates are determined around the Atlantic turned out to be the Rocky Mountains. Because of the need to conserve angular momentum, as air flows from the west across the mountains it is forced to first turn south and then to turn north further downstream. As such the mountains force cold air south into eastern North America and warm air north into western Europe. This waviness in the flow is responsible for the other half of the temperature difference across the North Atlantic Ocean.

"Hence:

1. Fifty percent of the winter temperature difference across the North Atlantic is caused by the eastward atmospheric transport of heat released by the ocean that was absorbed and stored in the summer.

2. Fifty percent is caused by the stationary waves of the atmospheric flow.

3. The ocean heat transport contributes a small warming across the basin.

"The seasonal ocean heat storage and pattern of atmospheric heat transport add up to make winters in western Europe 15 to 20 degrees C warmer than those in eastern North America. A very similar process occurs across the Pacific Ocean. The ocean heat transport warms the North Atlantic Ocean and the land on both sides by a modest few degrees C. The only place where the ocean heat transport fundamentally alters climate is along the coast of northern Norway which would be sea ice-covered were it not for the warm northward flowing Norwegian Current."
Arguing about religion? lol!
Well I guess this is what happens when all is quiet weather-wise.
Religion should be a personal thing, and for many it is. If you prefer to have a certain personal religious belief, and you think it makes you a better person, by all means please practice it to your heart's content; I'm all for self-improvement. But coming onto a science website and repeatedly invoking and promoting only one's chose brand of magic is both unwelcome and wrong--and telling others they're mistaken in their own spiritual beliefs, and that they face an eternity of torment in your version of some imagined "hell" if they don't immediately switch to your particular style of superstition, is very much akin to cursing them.

Those that insist on doing so may wish to acquaint themselves with the following verse: "Judge not, lest ye be judged." (Matthew 7:1) NOTE: I see WDEmobmet beat me to it. Great minds, and all that...

Now go, and sin no more.
To try to stop another huge religion debate from starting, I'm going to post a picture of the most epic storm of 2011.



Now comment.




Or else.
Quoting SPLbeater:



Genesis 1:1-5

"In the beginning, God created the heaven and the earth.

And the earth was without form, and void; and darkness was upon the face of the deep; And the spirit of God moved upon the face of the waters.

And God said 'Let there be light': and there was light.

And God saw the light, that it was good: and God divided the light from the darkness.

And God called the light Day, and the darkness he called Night. And the evening and the morning were the first day."

God, is pre-exstent. Bible gives no data to when the universe was created. God has been around forever and ever and ever. no beginning, and wil have no end.


Ever heard of the BIG BANG!!!
Quoting yqt1001:
To try to stop another huge religion debate from starting, I'm going to post a picture of the most epic storm of 2011.



Now comment.

Or else.

75 mph at most.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

75 mph at most.


What are you talking about? Looking at that makes Jose look well-defined. I mean, it's totally just a blob in the middle of the Atlantic that the NHC shouldn't have named.
Quoting yqt1001:
To try to stop another huge religion debate from starting, I'm going to post a picture of the most epic storm of 2011.



Now comment.




Or else.

No! Ophelia was way more epic. How about a weather debate instead of religion? :)
Neapolitan
So they do!! however I believe you said it better lol
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Nice avatar!
Wow , i'm a follower of this blog for the scientific insights and meteorological information it provides. Never would have expected to be exposed to this ludicrous and childish discussion about religious believes,hell, heavens,whatever... this is not the place, or the forum for such discussions.
"It is long time that the Gulf Stream-European climate myth was resigned to the graveyard of defunct misconceptions along with the Earth being flat and the sun going around the Earth."

From Richard Seager's article.
Hmmm, interesting juxtaposition of "defunct misconceptions along with the Earth being flat and the sun going around the Earth." and the religion flap considering the Catholic Church's reaction to Copernicus.
Quoting yqt1001:


What are you talking about? Looking at that makes Jose look well-defined. I mean, it's totally just a blob in the middle of the Atlantic that the NHC shouldn't have named.

Exactly. XD
Yasi vs. Ophelia.... The big O has my vote
2nd best storm:

No system anywhere on Earth beats this baby right here:

Though there was no real misconception that the earth was flat. Eratosthenes and all that. Mr. Seager engages in some historical goofiness.

Quoting SPLbeater:
To all the bloggers out there who want me to stop, i have a message for you

I spent hours last night witnessing and pushing through the harsh comments, because i dont want to see anybody go to hell. I have planted the seed and done my part, it is now God's turn to amplify what i have done. rejecting Christ is not a good thing, Christ made earth. Christ made you. Christ died for you.
Everybody is in my prayers, hopefully your eyes will be opened very soon. I am done on this top

thats what u believe, dont force that on anyone else as not everyone feels the way u do,.....anyway what does that have to do with the weather?
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Yasi vs. Ophelia.... The big O has my vote


Blagh! Why does no one like Yasi! :( Ophelia was great and all, but this year she wasn't one of the more impressive storms....

Now in the Atlantic she was the most impressive storm, but the Atlantic really lacked impressive storms. EPac stole most of them.

As far as I know, the WPac hosted the only EI this year (Roke). Everywhere else was pretty bland as far as impressive storms goes.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No system anywhere on Earth beats this baby right here:


What about this.
Monomania in any form, "Religion" or "Tunnel"'s is not allowed here as stated in the Rule's of the Road.

They are located above the comment Box.

WunderBlogs - Dr. Masters' Blog Content Rules

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Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.

Stay on topic.

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Quoting Ameister12:

What about this.

That's the bomb.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No system anywhere on Earth beats this baby right here:



Would that be Typhoon Tip???
Here is my favorite
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
2nd best storm:


Megi was probably my favorite WPac typhoon. Such an amazing, text book cyclone.
Quoting yqt1001:


Blagh! Why does no one like Yasi! :( Ophelia was great and all, but this year she wasn't one of the more impressive storms....

Now in the Atlantic she was the most impressive storm, but the Atlantic really lacked impressive storms. EPac stole most of them.

I agree. Yasi was a beast.
Quoting Ameister12:

What about this.
Tip wuz a monster..I always thought Gilbert looked impressive...
Quoting SPLbeater:
Here is my favorite
190 mph sustained..Gusts...Who knows..
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Yasi vs. Ophelia.... The big O has my vote

I'll vote O.phelia, she made a surprising intensification to make category 4 status and become our strongest storm of the season. Put Ophelia in the caribbean and we would've gotten a 5 outta her. Impressive little girl.
I can officially say the is OVER, i was hesitant to put the season away yet, with the canadian, gfs, and nogaps forecasting a strong low to form NE off the virgin Is. but it has became less impressive, and model support has been dropped... Bye 2011!

Going into Hibernation now, will finish my season analysis and 2012 forecasts in the next week and will post the official blog update on it. Just click on my name when you want to check out my progress.
I just noticed that this is blog #1999, looks like we are only a day or so away from 2000!
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Would that be Typhoon Tip???

Cyclone Monica.
Top 3 most impressive storms per basin IMO.

Atlantic:
1. Wilma
2. Igor
3. Gilbert

EPAc/CPac:
1. Linda
2. Rick
3. Ioke

WPac:
1. Tip
2. Megi
3. Nanmadol

Australia:
1. Monica
2. Yasi
3. Hamish

Indian Ocean:
1. Gonu
2. Edzani
3. Gafilo
yall are crazy... Nanmadol was the best... better than O or Yasi!!!
Quoting Ameister12:
Top 3 most impressive storms per basin IMO.

Atlantic:
1. Wilma
2. Igor
3. Gilbert

EPAc/CPac:
1. Linda
2. Rick
3. Ioke

WPac:
1. Tip
2. Megi
3. Nanmadol

Australia:
1. Monica
2. Yasi
3. Hamish

Indian Ocean:
1. Gonu
2. Edzani
3. Gafilo

Hurricane Linda, the Eastern Pacific's strongest system, near peak intensity as a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 185 mph and a minimum barometric pressure of 902 mbar.

Quoting Dragod66:
yall are crazy... Nanmadol was the best... better than O or Yasi!!!
I
Agree, nanmadol was the best of the year
Quoting TomTaylor:
I
Agree, nanmadol was the best of the year

Pssht, Yasi has Nanmadol beat.

Nanmadol:



Yasi:

hey SPLbeater keep your religious fantasies and you make believe god to yourself !
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hurricane Linda, the Eastern Pacific's strongest system, near peak intensity as a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 185 mph and a minimum barometric pressure of 902 mbar.


Yep. Lovely Linda. She was actually predicted to hit California as a tropical storm, but never happened. Pretty interesting though.
115. capeflorida

Please remove that comment, we actually got off that topic and don't want to get back on it. Thanks.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Pssht, Yasi has Nanmadol beat.

Nanmadol:



Yasi:


Nanmadol was the best in the Northern hemisphere and Yasi was the best in the Southern hemisphere. The best one worldwide was DON.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Nanmadol was the best in the Northern hemisphere and Yasi was the best in the Southern hemisphere. The best one worldwide was DON.


Don? I thought Jose was the best worldwide!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Nanmadol was the best in the Northern hemisphere and Yasi was the best in the Southern hemisphere. The best one worldwide was DON.

Nope, that title definitely goes to Jose.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Nanmadol was the best in the Northern hemisphere and Yasi was the best in the Southern hemisphere. The best one worldwide was DON.

Yep. Doesn't get any better than Don. Amazing how little destruction it caused. (Sarcasm flag: On)
I'm in awe. Such an amazing cyclone.
You guys are underestimating the courage of Don! He went where no other storms could this year, to the shredder known as the Great Texas Drought. Lee was so afraid of it that he didn't even have convection on the side nearest to the shredder, and Nate just went into Mexico instead!
Quoting yqt1001:


Don? I thought Jose was the best worldwide!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nope, that title definitely goes to Jose.

LOL
Kenneth was a nice cyclone at peak intensity. my kind of hurricane with the big eye, lol
Quoting SPLbeater:
Kenneth was a nice cyclone at peak intensity. my kind of hurricane with the big eye, lol

You would have loved to track Hurricane Katrina...Too bad it had to make landfall.



Quoting Ameister12:
I'm in awe. Such an amazing cyclone.
Yes. That makes Tip look like a runt.
Quoting SPLbeater:


im sorry but anything other then a relationship with Jesus Christ is wrong. im praying for you to





I'll admit, when I was younger, I was very harsh, and not loving, I used to post and try and force my faith on people. But when i dug down deep I realized it forfeits the whole message of sharing the Gospel which is about love and redemption not "converting". I am not better than anyone here, neither does my belief make me better. I certainly don't love people nearly as much as Jesus did, but I'm just an ordinary human with flaws and a belief in God. However, I give it my best to be who God made me to be, and my goal is to think less about my self and more about using my gifts to help this broken world and giving them the same hope I have been given. I love science especially weather science, so that I think will be the way I will do it. I believe Jesus Christ is the truth but if people here don't follow that that's their choice. This is a weather blog, as Christians its fine to share personally to people but being forceful isn't right, and formally on a blog makes it worse.
Although I will never stop proclaiming that I know it as the truth. But I know this is not the place to have deep spiritual conversations. Unless someone specifically was interested in asking me more, because they wanted to learn more about my personal life with God that's fine. But even then, to go on and on about it in a blog would still be disrespectful. Jesus loved people, and He respected people, keep it that way.


That's my input :)





..Click Image for thumbnails
Wow. This is amazing.

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You would have loved to track Hurricane Katrina...Too bad it had to make landfall.





yeah, maybe. i would have liked it until it reached cat 3 status in the gulf, lol. i like big powerful cape verde hurricanes. last year Danielle, Earl, Igor, Julia delighted me
Overall, 2011 has had a pretty weak year, with only 2 category 5 hurricanes, both of them peaking at 160mph (although the number of MH strength cyclones are above normal). This year is really similar to 2008 in that sense, with 2008 having it's strongest storm being 165mph but only 1 category 5 hurricane.

I guess the years of extremely strong storms are ending...and we are heading back into an era of weaker storms. Which is really good for the Philippines which seemed to be getting destroyed by 180mph typhoons every other year.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALENGA (01U)
9:00 AM WST December 9 2011
==============================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Alenga, Category Two (984 hPa) located at 20.7S 102.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 20 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 22.0S 105.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 22.7S 107.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 24.0S 109.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 25.9S 112.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Tropical Cyclone Alenga was located by microwave and infrared satellite imagery overnight. In the last 6 hours the system has started to appear sheared, with a shear pattern giving a DVORAK DT of 3.5 with CI held at 4.0. 10 minute mean wind is set at 55 knots.

The system was able to keep pace with the west northwestward flow for most of the night and continued as a small intense circulation. Over the past 6 hours shear has started to affect the system and latest microwave and visible imagery suggests that the low level and mid level circulations are begining to be displaced. The west northwesterly shear is currently around 30 knots and continues to increase during the day, and assisted by cooler SST's Alenga should weaken below cyclone strength on Saturday west of the mainland.

Numerical Weather Prediction guidance has become more aligned and has the system moving southeast over the next 24-48 hours due to the upper trough. The low level center may tend more southerly or southwesterly as the system shears and gales could persist to the south of the system in a tight easterly pressure gradient due to a high pressure system further south.
New ASCAT for the UK storm
how could I forget about cyclone Monica. she was a beautiful storm. Apparently her destruction was limited to mainly deforestation which is said to take hundreds of years to regrow...
SH012012 - Tropical Cyclone (>64 kt) ALENGA


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery/Loop

..click image for Loop




Quoting WDEmobmet:


Ever heard of the BIG BANG!!!


TV show. Right?
Forgot to mention hurricanes Bill and Fred from 09, my first year. Fred was cool, cuz when i went to bed that night it was 70mph TS. next mornin before school it was Cat 2. got home it was Cat 3, and peaked. Bill was my first hurricane, and it made it to 135mph(with a HUGE eye)
Quoting SPLbeater:
Forgot to mention hurricanes Bill and Fred from 09, my first year. Fred was cool, cuz when i went to bed that night it was 70mph TS. next mornin before school it was Cat 2. got home it was Cat 3, and peaked. Bill was my first hurricane, and it made it to 135mph(with a HUGE eye)

Bill nearly gave me a heart attack, almost hit here in North Carolina as a Category 4 hurricane.

Any long time lurkers, remember in 2009 when this guy came on claiming he talked to the NHC or something and that the hurricane was going to hit here in NC? I was a lot younger then, and lurked, so I actually believed it at the time. XD
140. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Bill nearly gave me a heart attack, almost hit here in North Carolina as a Category 4 hurricane.

Any long time lurkers, remember in 2009 when this guy came on claiming he talked to the NHC or something and that the hurricane was going to hit here in NC? I was a lot younger then, and lurked, so I actually believed it at the time. XD

I remember it well, Bill was the first hurricane I tracked indept, quite an interesting storm. I remember hearing about Bill's "So called NC Bullseye" by some person, I lurked alot back then, didnt even comment till this year, but I remember him well.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


TV show. Right?



Great Show!! in the words of the cable guy.... "I dont care who you are.. thats funny"
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Bill nearly gave me a heart attack, almost hit here in North Carolina as a Category 4 hurricane.

Any long time lurkers, remember in 2009 when this guy came on claiming he talked to the NHC or something and that the hurricane was going to hit here in NC? I was a lot younger then, and lurked, so I actually believed it at the time. XD


same story here lol. i wanted it to hit. now, i know ALOT better, and tell them to go knock down some fish home lol
Quoting SPLbeater:


same story here lol. i wanted it to hit. now, i know ALOT better, and tell them to go knock down some fish home lol


Ouch, I was not expecting to hear that from you. But some people do enjoy the destruction of others. I'm ideologically opposed to the US but I have enough morale (I guess) to be content with the amount of destruction Lee caused in the US, but even the damage Irene caused was too much destruction for me.

And no, I'm not opposed to the people, I'm opposed to the government.
Quoting SPLbeater:


same story here lol. i wanted it to hit. now, i know ALOT better, and tell them to go knock down some fish home lol
why did you say same here?

TAwx13 never said he wanted it to hit NC.

You are just about the worst
Quoting SPLbeater:


same story here lol. i wanted it to hit. now, i know ALOT better, and tell them to go knock down some fish home lol


What kind of person wants a hurricane to kill poor, innocent fish?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


What kind of person wants a hurricane to kill poor, innocent fish?


........
Quoting SPLbeater:


........


Rhetorical question.
SW Pacific
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Rhetorical question.


lol. good thing igot me a dictionary at my desk :P
IRAN??? I DONT EAT THAT.... THAT DRONE IS IN CHINA....

IRAN AIRS FOOTAGE OF THE CAPTURED DRONE
Zeke Miller | Dec. 8, 2011, 11:42 AM

Iranian state television broadcast images this morning of what they purport to be a downed U.S. RQ-170 Sentinel drone.

The host on the program said the Iranians "hacked into the signal" and landed the drone, which explains why it looks to be in pristine condition.

The television host added that Iran is beginning to reverse engineer the stealth drone.

The Pentagon did not immediately have comment on the footage.

Rapid retreat of Chile glacier captured in images

Link

I just got back and read about Bordonaro's passing. I am really shocked. He was a good friend and will be missed. Does anyone know how we can leave a message for his family?
for Bordanaro's Blog Gro,..

Quoting EmmyRose:
I have spoken to Roberts daughter.
He will be cremated and a service will be held in
the Dallas area.
When she calls me back with information I will post it on here for those of us in Texas who might be able to attend.

He was a gentle prince of a weather man.

Taz - he passed in his sleep with no suffering.
i never knew the guy..i think i had seen a few of his comments before i had account, other then that never knew him
Quoting Patrap:
for Bordanaro's Blog Gro,..



Thanks, Pat. Funny how one can become so fond of someone they never met. I was really sorry to hear it.
Quoting Ameister12:
I'm in awe. Such an amazing cyclone.


It's so cute :3
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, Pat. Funny how one can become so fond of someone they never met. I was really sorry to hear it.


been wondering awhile. what is your avatar? smokey mountains?
Quoting SPLbeater:


been wondering awhile. what is your avatar? smokey mountains?


No, it is a sunset in the Norwegian fjords in summer.
150. sunlinepr2:18 AM GMT on December 09, 2011

rut ro
Quoting Grothar:
grothar

Why don't you respond to my comments anymore?
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, Pat. Funny how one can become so fond of someone they never met. I was really sorry to hear it.

I never knew there was anything amiss and then plunk he's gone. Always had good analysis of weather events. Didn't know he was that involved until I read a little more about him on his facebook page. Bordonaro will be missed.
Five meteoroids hit earth lastnight.

Quoting Jedkins01:





I'll admit, when I was younger, I was very harsh, and not loving, I used to post and try and force my faith on people. But when i dug down deep I realized it forfeits the whole message of sharing the Gospel which is about love and redemption not "converting". I am not better than anyone here, neither does my belief make me better. I certainly don't love people nearly as much as Jesus did, but I'm just an ordinary human with flaws and a belief in God. However, I give it my best to be who God made me to be, and my goal is to think less about my self and more about using my gifts to help this broken world and giving them the same hope I have been given. I love science especially weather science, so that I think will be the way I will do it. I believe Jesus Christ is the truth but if people here don't follow that that's their choice. This is a weather blog, as Christians its fine to share personally to people but being forceful isn't right, and formally on a blog makes it worse.
Although I will never stop proclaiming that I know it as the truth. But I know this is not the place to have deep spiritual conversations. Unless someone specifically was interested in asking me more, because they wanted to learn more about my personal life with God that's fine. But even then, to go on and on about it in a blog would still be disrespectful. Jesus loved people, and He respected people, keep it that way.


That's my input :)



Stop been fanatics, believe in whatever you want, Jesus , Buda,Mahoma, Sarah Palin for that matter , but please keep it to yourselves, this is a weather blog.
ESPI is down to -.91. This La Nina is continuing to strengthen.
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Stop been fanatics, believe in whatever you want, Jesus , Buda,Mahoma, Sarah Palin for that matter , but please keep it to yourselves, this is a weather blog.


you didnt read the comment thouroughly did you?
Hello everyone.....Just found out that Bob Bordonaro passed away....OMG....GOOD GUY! RIP BROTHER!



Looks like a pretty good NorEaster gonna hit the NE in about 8-10 days if this model is accurate.
Quoting TampaSpin:
CHRISTMAS is a celebration of the Birth of Jesus Christ. For those that don't believe in Christ......i guess you still want Santa Claus to come see you and leave his many Gifts. Well you better be good for goodness sake!


well said, lol. you know, everytime Christmas comes around i always think of Jesus bein born in the manger. but, the other thing i think about is this:

HOW IN THE WORLD DOES SANTA CLAUS FIT HIS FAT BELLY DOWN THE CHIMNEY!?!?!?i mean, i have a big fireplace, aand the chimeny is bout 14-18 inches wide. aint no way that big guy gon fit himself down it, LOL
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Stop been fanatics, believe in whatever you want, Jesus , Buda,Mahoma, Sarah Palin for that matter , but please keep it to yourselves, this is a weather blog.


Hey man, remember, if you read my post I stated that I was apposed to shoving my faith in peoples face because it has nothing to with love, even though I once did so being young, dumb, and too harsh because I was a 16 year old too full of pride lol.

Anyways, I certainly wasn't starting any religious debate here, I was stating I was actually apposed to it, because it is a scientific blog. However just as you are entitled to state where you stand. So am I. I don't intend to bother people or start trouble. If I do well that's between you and your anger, I don't mean any harm. Have a nice evening man :)
Quoting TampaSpin:
CHRISTMAS is a celebration of the Birth of Jesus Christ. For those that don't believe in Christ......i guess you still want Santa Claus to come see you and leave his many Gifts. Well you better be good for goodness sake!
Christmas is a Pagan winter solstice festival co-opted by the Roman Church. Not a bad idea actually, need a little mid winter pick me up. Too bad they didn't steal something between Christmas and Easter.

Storm dumped a bunch of H2o but all in the liquid form on the Shenandoah Valley. Over hyped to sell stuff since everything bombed after Black Friday.
It's interesting. The CPC is predicting at or above average temps again for Central Florida. I understand the reasoning for this, because La Nina will be in place again, and above normal is the long term historic norm for La Nina. But the last 2 winters we had well below normal temps in sharp contrast to typical La Nina influence on Florida.


It will be interesting to see if a once again a powerful trough carves out and brings more well below normal temps to Florida consistently at some point during the upcoming winter. Not because I get a kick out of climate forecasts failing. But I'm intrigued as to the reasons for the below normal winters in Florida despite La Nina. It hasn't arrived yet, but that record breaking cold winter that gave the Tampa Bay area Kentucky average winter temps didn't arrive at all till January. So we shall see.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Christmas is a Pagan winter solstice festival co-opted by the Roman Church. Not a bad idea actually, need a little mid winter pick me up. Too bad they didn't steal something between Christmas and Easter.

Storm dumped a bunch of H2o but all in the liquid form on the Shenandoah Valley. Over hyped to sell stuff since everything bombed after Black Friday.


Yeah Christmas was originally a pagan holiday, I'm surprised how few people are aware of it. It doesn't really matter though. Human beings are social, we all are influenced in some way by some other cultural significance.
Quoting TampaSpin:


this needs to be broadcast on every single news station at the same time:D
Quoting Jedkins01:
It's interesting. The CPC is predicting at or above average temps again for Central Florida. I understand the reasoning for this, because La Nina will be in place again, and above normal is the long term historic norm for La Nina. But the last 2 winters we had well below normal temps in sharp contrast to typical La Nina influence on Florida.


It will be interesting to see if a once again a powerful trough carves out and brings more well below normal temps to Florida consistently at some point during the upcoming winter. Not because I get a kick out of climate forecasts failing. But I'm intrigued as to the reasons for the below normal winters in Florida despite La Nina. It hasn't arrived yet, but that record breaking cold winter that gave the Tampa Bay area Kentucky average winter temps didn't arrive at all till January. So we shall see.


Personally, I think that the cold continents/warm arctic pattern is one that is likely to persist as the planet warms. I realize you are not a proponent of AGW, but I think it's an interesting concept to consider despite that.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah Christmas was originally a pagan holiday, I'm surprised how few people are aware of it. It doesn't really matter though. Human beings are social, we all are influenced in some way by some other cultural significance.


Christmas is the day designated Christ's birthday in human form on earth. Although there is no evidence as to a specific date on which he was born on earth, that is the day picked for it, and treated like it. not, pagan
Quoting SPLbeater:


Christmas is the day designated Christ's birthday in human form on earth. Although there is no evidence as to a specific date on which he was born on earth, that is the day picked for it, and treated like it. not, pagan
Yes it definitely is pegan.

Lay off the religion stuff already, it's not a religion blog and you can't even get your own facts straight.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yes it definitely is pegan.

Lay off the religion stuff already, it's not a religion blog and you can't even get your own facts straight.


Hey Tom, how are you?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey Tom, how are you?
Been better, not in the best mood right now. How are you doing tonight?
Quoting TomTaylor:
Been better, not in the best mood right now. How are you doing tonight?


Sorry to hear that buddy. If you ever need to vent, just PM me.

I'm okay, although I also have bad news: my family was on welfare until today, when we received word that the government is curbing their food stamps. Me and my aunt recently got jobs, so that's why. We are more than able to survive because of that, but still, that's $200 coming out of my first check in the month, which kind of bums me out.

Ah well, **** happens as they say. Best not to worry.
If anyone's still awake, I just finished my report on Jova:


Hurricane Jova

October 6 - October 13

Jova reached Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS) before making landfall near Manzanillo as a Category 2.

a. Storm history

Jova's development appears to be related to the southern portion of the tropical wave that spawned Atlantic Hurricane Ophelia. The wave showed little distinction until it neared Central America on October 3, when an increase in cloudiness and showers was noted over the waters of the southwestern Caribbean Sea, as well as over portions of Colombia and Panama. The wave entered the eastern Pacific waters late that day while moving generally westward. As the westward propagation continued, convection increased south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The system slowly became better organized, becoming a tropical depression near 0000 UTC October 6 while centered about 615 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Initial development was somewhat slow, likely in response to close proximity to Hurricane Irwin, which produced northeasterly shear over the depression, causing the low-level center to be exposed along the eastern edge of the elongated convective canopy. The depression became a tropical storm near 1800 UTC October 6 while centered about 500 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo.

As Irwin began to weaken early on October 8, the vertical wind shear over Jova gradually abated, and Jova became a hurricane near 1800 UTC that day, centered about 450 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo. During this time, Jova began moving slowly east-northeast toward the coast of southwestern Mexico in response to a large trough over the western United States. Gradual strengthening continued, and Jova became a Category 2 hurricane around 2100 UTC October 9 while located about 250 miles southwest of Manzanillo. Thereafter, the hurricane underwent rapid intensification, becoming a major hurricane around 0600 UTC October 10. Further strengthening ensued, and Jova reached its peak intensity of 110 kt at 1200 UTC while centered about 250 miles southwest of Manzanillo. Jova soon gradually turned northward toward the coast of Mexico in increasingly mid-latitude flow associated with a longwave trough moving into the southern United States. Due to internal fluctuations and possible dry air entrainment, Jova slowly weakened, being reduced to a Category 2 around 0600 UTC October 11. Thereafter, the hurricane stabilized while continuing slowly northward.

As it approached the coast, Jova accelerated slightly, and the hurricane made landfall along the southwest coast of Mexico just west of Manzanillo around 0430 UTC October 12 as a Category 2 hurricane with 1-minute sustained winds of 85 kt. Jova quickly weakened after landfall over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre del Sur, dropping down to a tropical storm near 1200 UTC. Jova continued to weaken, becoming a tropical depression about six hours later while centered over the steep terrain of western Mexico. The cyclone dissipated near 0000 UTC October 13 while centered approximately 45 miles east-northeast of Tepic, Mexico.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Sorry to hear that buddy. If you ever need to vent, just PM me.

I'm okay, although I also have bad news: my family was on welfare until today, when we received word that the government is curbing their food stamps. Me and my aunt recently got jobs, so that's why. We are more than able to survive because of that, but still, that's $200 coming out of my first check in the month, which kind of bums me out.

Ah well, **** happens as they say. Best not to worry.
wow I'm sorry to hear that. My problems aren't really a big deal just some high school drama crap I got sucked into, certainly nothing compared to what you're dealing with. Hope all turns out well for you though, just gotta hang in there and ride out the tough times.

And are you still working at Walmart? How's that going?
Quoting TomTaylor:
wow I'm sorry to hear that. My problems aren't really a big deal just some high school drama crap I got sucked into, certainly nothing compared to what you're dealing with. Hope all turns out well though, just gotta hang in there and ride out the tough times.

And are you still working at Walmart? How's that going?


I still work at Walmart, and probably will for at least a few months. Since this is my first job, I do not think my chances of finding another job on such short notice is particularly high. I need a resume first.

My dad (who worked there for 20 years, heh) told me that after awhile you grow to tolerate it. He wasn't lying. I've been there for a month, and while I still loathe retail with a passion, I can at least bear it to the point where time passes relatively quickly.
Quoting KoritheMan:
If anyone's still awake, I just finished my report on Jova:


Hurricane Jova

October 6 - October 13

Jova reached Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS) before making landfall near Manzanillo as a Category 2.

a. Storm history

Jova's development appears to be related to the southern portion of the tropical wave that spawned Atlantic Hurricane Ophelia. The wave showed little distinction until it neared Central America on October 3, when an increase in cloudiness and showers was noted over the waters of the southwestern Caribbean Sea, as well as over portions of Colombia and Panama. The wave entered the eastern Pacific waters late that day while moving generally westward. As the westward propagation continued, convection increased south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The system slowly became better organized, becoming a tropical depression near 0000 UTC October 6 while centered about 615 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Initial development was somewhat slow, likely in response to close proximity to Hurricane Irwin, which produced northeasterly shear over the depression, causing the low-level center to be exposed along the eastern edge of the elongated convective canopy. The depression became a tropical storm near 1800 UTC October 6 while centered about 500 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo.

As Irwin began to weaken early on October 8, the vertical wind shear over Jova gradually abated, and Jova became a hurricane near 1800 UTC that day, centered about 450 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo. During this time, Jova began moving slowly east-northeast toward the coast of southwestern Mexico in response to a large trough over the western United States. Gradual strengthening continued, and Jova became a Category 2 hurricane around 2100 UTC October 9 while located about 250 miles southwest of Manzanillo. Thereafter, the hurricane underwent rapid intensification, becoming a major hurricane around 0600 UTC October 10. Further strengthening ensued, and Jova reached its peak intensity of 110 kt at 1200 UTC while centered about 250 miles southwest of Manzanillo. Jova soon gradually turned northward toward the coast of Mexico in increasingly mid-latitude flow associated with a longwave trough moving into the southern United States. Due to internal fluctuations and possible dry air entrainment, Jova slowly weakened, being reduced to a Category 2 around 0600 UTC October 11. Thereafter, the hurricane stabilized while continuing slowly northward.

As it approached the coast, Jova accelerated slightly, and the hurricane made landfall along the southwest coast of Mexico just west of Manzanillo around 0430 UTC October 12 as a Category 2 hurricane with 1-minute sustained winds of 85 kt. Jova quickly weakened after landfall over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre del Sur, dropping down to a tropical storm near 1200 UTC. Jova continued to weaken, becoming a tropical depression about six hours later while centered over the steep terrain of western Mexico. The cyclone dissipated near 0000 UTC October 13 while centered approximately 45 miles east-northeast of Tepic, Mexico.
I'm still up, nice write up kori

I really have come to enjoy these lol. Let's me relive the storm in a few short minutes. Interesting to see how many epac storms also form out of or are enhanced by African tropical waves
Quoting KoritheMan:


I still work at Walmart, and probably will for at least a few months. Since this is my first job, I do not think my chances of finding another job on such short notice is particularly high. I need a resume first.

My dad (who worked there for 20 years, heh) told me that after awhile you grow to tolerate it. He wasn't lying. I've been there for a month, and while I still loathe retail with a passion, I can at least bear it to the point where time passes relatively quickly.
hah well at least you can tolerate it now. I'm really amazed your dad worked their for 20 years, that's a pretty long stretch especially since it doesn't sound like a very appealing job.

Also, what type of job are you looking for after Walmart? Are you already looking to get into an actual sit down desk job?
Quoting TomTaylor:
hah well at least you can tolerate it now. I'm really amazed your dad worked their for 20 years, that's a pretty long stretch especially since it doesn't sound like a very appealing job.

Also, what type of job are you looking for after Walmart? Are you already looking to get into an actual sit down desk job?


He was an assistant manager, and hated it. Got transferred to at least four different stores over that time span. In fact, the last store he worked at before quitting was one in Baton Rouge, which is about 20 miles from where I live. He worked 60 hours a week/12 hours a day (8 AM to 8 PM). I'm only getting between 30 and 35 hours a week, and I consider that enough. I'm quite impressed he was able to work such a rigorous shift, much less that he was able to stay with the company for two decades.

Luckily, the one good thing that came out of his prolonged tenure is that he knows practically everyone in the store I work at now, so I'm rarely given a hard time. It's also rather amusing to be stopped by random people I don't even know. Everyone's like "Hey look! That's Ronnie's eldest son!", and I'm like "Hey!", while simultaneously thinking "who the hell are you?" lol.

Hoping for a desk job, yes. I'll stay at Walmart though, as long as it pays more than anything else I might find.
Quoting KoritheMan:


He was an assistant manager, and hated it. Got transferred to at least four different stores over that time span. In fact, the last store he worked at before quitting was one in Baton Rouge, which is about 20 miles from where I live. He worked 60 hours a week/12 hours a day (8 AM to 8 PM). I'm only getting between 30 and 35 hours a week, and I consider that enough. I'm quite impressed he was able to work such a rigorous shift, much less that he was able to stay with the company for two decades.

Luckily, the one good thing that came out of his prolonged tenure is that he knows practically everyone in the store I work at now, so I'm rarely given a hard time. It's also rather amusing to be stopped by random people I don't even know. Everyone's like "Hey look! That's Ronnie's eldest son!", and I'm like "Hey!", while simultaneously thinking "who the hell are you?" lol.

Hoping for a desk job, yes. I'll stay at Walmart though, as long as it pays more than anything else I might find.
60hr weeks? That's nuts. Your dads a workaholic, props to him though I could never do that lol.

I wonder if some of the times people call you out they're also wondering if you will fill in your dad's shoes and work 60hr weeks and stay with the company for the next 20yrs lol.

And oh okay. I remember saying to you a while ago if you look hard enough you could definitely find a job, but I didn't realize you were looking for that type of job. You're right about that, that will take a little bit of time to build up your resume/work experience.

Quoting TomTaylor:

I wonder if some of the times people call you out they're also wondering if you will fill in your dad's shoes and work 60hr weeks and stay with the company for the next 20yrs lol.
Who knows. However, I've already made it clear I have no intention of repeating my father's mistake. I will get out and establish a solid career in meteorology. You can count on it.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Who knows. However, I've already made it clear I have no intention of repeating my father's mistake. I will get out and establish a solid career in meteorology. You can count on it.

That's awesome man, you have the right attitude to get yourself in there. I'd like to get into meteorology more as well but my parents are kinda pushing engineering on me because it has better job potential. We'll see how it goes though, still got some time to think things out. Hope things work out for you though, sounds like you really want to go on to be a meteorologist.

I'm gonna hit the hay for now though, nice talking with ya

Quoting TomTaylor:

I'd like to get into meteorology more as well but my parents are kinda pushing engineering on me because it has better job potential
While this is true, I would advise against doing something you don't enjoy. I learned that from my dad when he would come in every night from work in an exasperated mood. On the other hand, it's not always so easy, is it? With college, provided you are under your parents' roof, you practically have to do what they ask of you, since chances are they're the ones paying for your tuition.

Nice chatting with you too. Don't sleep on that bad mood, btw.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Christmas is a Pagan winter solstice festival co-opted by the Roman Church. Not a bad idea actually, need a little mid winter pick me up. Too bad they didn't steal something between Christmas and Easter.

Storm dumped a bunch of H2o but all in the liquid form on the Shenandoah Valley. Over hyped to sell stuff since everything bombed after Black Friday.


Ah, but they did steal something in that period.
Quoting Chicklit:

I never knew there was anything amiss and then plunk he's gone. Always had good analysis of weather events. Didn't know he was that involved until I read a little more about him on his facebook page. Bordonaro will be missed.
Yes. I always respected his analysis on winter storms.He could hold his own when it came to tropical weather too.
1965: Hurricane Betsy smashes ashore near New Orleans
Published: Thursday, December 08, 2011, 11:59 PM


Hurricane Betsy smashed ashore near Grand Isle on the night of Sept. 9, 1965. The storm had already pounded the Bahamas and Florida, and it arrived in Louisiana as a Category 3 monster, packing wind gusts of 145 mph.

Enlarge The Times-Picayune
Houses stood on these concrete slabs in Grand Isle before Hurricane Betsy's winds and tides swept the island. Sept. 12, 1965.
1965: Hurricane Betsy and its destruction gallery (43 photos)



Betsy wiped out entire communities in St. Bernard and Plaquemines parishes, and sent floodwaters through levees throughout the area. Seventy-five people were killed in what was at that point the most destructive storm in Louisiana history.
Betsy became a hurricane on Aug. 29, 1965. It delivered heavy rain to Nassau and pounded the Miami area before heading into the Gulf. As Betsy swirled in the Gulf, hurricane watches were issued from Galveston to Mobile.
Only foundations and debris were left where Betsy made landfall in Grand Isle on Sept. 9. In St. Bernard Parish, the fishing villages of Yscloskey and Delacroix Island were washed away.
There were breaches on both sides of the Industrial Canal during Betsy. In the storm's aftermath, the federal government sent trailers to house displaced families.

The storm became the first billion-dollar hurricane, causing $1.2 billion in damage.

In response to Betsy, Congress ordered the Army Corps of Engineers to build a massive flood-protection system for New Orleans. That system fell apart 40 years later during Hurricane Katrina.
Cleaned up sat pic of Hurricane Betsy..Radar image of hurricane Cleo, just less than a year before Betsy had caused damage in the same area..
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER ALENGA (01U)
9:00 PM WST December 9 2011
==============================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Low, Former Alenga (995 hPa) located at 21.5S 102.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W2.0/24 HRS

Additional Information
======================

Strong vertical wind shear has weakened Alenga below cyclone intensity. The low level circulation center appears elongated and is now well removed from any convective cloud. The low level circulation center has decelerated to less than 10 knots, reducing the translation speed component on the surface winds. By Dvorak standards the center is too weak to classify in terms of DT, however the adjusted MET is at 2.5 and weakening constraints hold the FT to 2.0 and CI to 2.5.

Gales remain a possibility to the south of the center for a period owing to the pressure squeeze associated with a strong ridge further to the south.
Quoting SPLbeater:



Genesis 1:1-5

"In the beginning, God created the heaven and the earth.

And the earth was without form, and void; and darkness was upon the face of the deep; And the spirit of God moved upon the face of the waters.

And God said 'Let there be light': and there was light.

And God saw the light, that it was good: and God divided the light from the darkness.

And God called the light Day, and the darkness he called Night. And the evening and the morning were the first day."

God, is pre-exstent. Bible gives no data to when the universe was created. God has been around forever and ever and ever. no beginning, and wil have no end.

Religious arguments can result in a ban here. If you're gonna discuss religion, go to somewhere else.
Paleoclimate Record Points Toward Potential Rapid Climate Changes

New research into the Earth's paleoclimate history by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies director James E. Hansen suggests the potential for rapid climate changes this century, including multiple meters of sea level rise, if global warming is not abated.

By looking at how the Earth's climate responded to past natural changes, Hansen sought insight into a fundamental question raised by ongoing human-caused climate change: "What is the dangerous level of global warming?" Some international leaders have suggested a goal of limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial times in order to avert catastrophic change. But Hansen said at a press briefing at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco on Tues, Dec. 6, that warming of 2 degrees Celsius would lead to drastic changes, such as significant ice sheet loss in Greenland and Antarctica.

Based on Hansen's temperature analysis work at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the Earth's average global surface temperature has already risen .8 degrees Celsius since 1880, and is now warming at a rate of more than .1 degree Celsius every decade. This warming is largely driven by increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, particularly carbon dioxide, emitted by the burning of fossil fuels at power plants, in cars and in industry. At the current rate of fossil fuel burning, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will have doubled from pre-industrial times by the middle of this century. A doubling of carbon dioxide would cause an eventual warming of several degrees, Hansen said.

In recent research, Hansen and co-author Makiko Sato, also of Goddard Institute for Space Studies, compared the climate of today, the Holocene, with previous similar "interglacial" epochs – periods when polar ice caps existed but the world was not dominated by glaciers. In studying cores drilled from both ice sheets and deep ocean sediments, Hansen found that global mean temperatures during the Eemian period, which began about 130,000 years ago and lasted about 15,000 years, were less than 1 degree Celsius warmer than today. If temperatures were to rise 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial times, global mean temperature would far exceed that of the Eemian, when sea level was four to six meters higher than today, Hansen said.

"The paleoclimate record reveals a more sensitive climate than thought, even as of a few years ago. Limiting human-caused warming to 2 degrees is not sufficient," Hansen said. "It would be a prescription for disaster."

Hansen focused much of his new work on how the polar regions and in particular the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland will react to a warming world.



Two degrees Celsius of warming would make Earth much warmer than during the Eemian, and would move Earth closer to Pliocene-like conditions, when sea level was in the range of 25 meters higher than today, Hansen said. In using Earth's climate history to learn more about the level of sensitivity that governs our planet's response to warming today, Hansen said the paleoclimate record suggests that every degree Celsius of global temperature rise will ultimately equate to 20 meters of sea level rise. However, that sea level increase due to ice sheet loss would be expected to occur over centuries, and large uncertainties remain in predicting how that ice loss would unfold.

Hansen notes that ice sheet disintegration will not be a linear process. This non-linear deterioration has already been seen in vulnerable places such as Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica, where the rate of ice mass loss has continued accelerating over the past decade. Data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite is already consistent with a rate of ice sheet mass loss in Greenland and West Antarctica that doubles every ten years. The GRACE record is too short to confirm this with great certainty; however, the trend in the past few years does not rule it out, Hansen said. This continued rate of ice loss could cause multiple meters of sea level rise by 2100, Hansen said.

Ice and ocean sediment cores from the polar regions indicate that temperatures at the poles during previous epochs – when sea level was tens of meters higher – is not too far removed from the temperatures Earth could reach this century on a "business as usual" trajectory.

"We don’t have a substantial cushion between today's climate and dangerous warming," Hansen said. "Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying feedbacks in response to moderate additional global warming."

Detailed considerations of a new warming target and how to get there are beyond the scope of this research, Hansen said. But this research is consistent with Hansen's earlier findings that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would need to be rolled back from about 390 parts per million in the atmosphere today to 350 parts per million in order to stabilize the climate in the long term. While leaders continue to discuss a framework for reducing emissions, global carbon dioxide emissions have remained stable or increased in recent years.

Hansen and others noted that while the paleoclimate evidence paints a clear picture of what Earth's earlier climate looked like, but that using it to predict precisely how the climate might change on much smaller timescales in response to human-induced rather than natural climate change remains difficult. But, Hansen noted, the Earth system is already showing signs of responding, even in the cases of "slow feedbacks" such as ice sheet changes.

The human-caused release of increased carbon dioxide into the atmosphere also presents climate scientists with something they've never seen in the 65 million year record of carbon dioxide levels – a drastic rate of increase that makes it difficult to predict how rapidly the Earth will respond. In periods when carbon dioxide has increased due to natural causes, the rate of increase averaged about .0001 parts per million per year – in other words, one hundred parts per million every million years. Fossil fuel burning is now causing carbon dioxide concentrations to increase at two parts per million per year.

"Humans have overwhelmed the natural, slow changes that occur on geologic timescales," Hansen said.



Patrick Lynch
NASA's Earth Science News Team
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
PERTURBATION TROPICALE (02-20112012)
16:30 PM RET December 9 2011
==============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02 (1002 hPa) located at 16.4S 65.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Additional Information
======================

Low level vortex is totally exposed due to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. It is expected that the system will keep its westward track and will fill up for the next days. In fact, despite a temporary slight decrease tomorrow, strong northwesterly wind shear should persist and sea surface temperature will remain in range of 26-27C for the next 3 days. Some heavy rains should occur over Rodriques Island with fluctuating convection that is rejected in the southeastern part of the system.

LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT RE-INTENSIFICATION.
Volunteering or internships at places you hope to work, are a great way to get your foot in the door. Getting to know professionals in your desired field through shared interest, and cooperation is an effective gateway to perspective gainful employment.

Loved the sat images from the 60's.

Doesn't the C.I.A. know about self destruction? They need to "get smart" before they get us into a war.
Quoting biff4ugo:
Volunteering or internships at places you hope to work, are a great way to get your foot in the door. Getting to know professionals in your desired field through shared interest, and cooperation is an effective gateway to perspective gainful employment.

Loved the sat images from the 60's.

Doesn't the C.I.A. know about self destruction? They need to "get smart" before they get us into a war.
I love,em too...Man do I wish the satellite was around back in the early 1900,s...What awesome sat pics we would have seen...
Hurricane Faith captured by the ESSA-2 satellite on September 1, 1966 as it moved towards Cape Hatteras on the North Carolina coast. This storm travelled over 7500 miles, and was one of the longest lived tropical cyclones ever recorded..
Another huge storm north of newfoundland
1967,s Beulah was a cat-5 beast. It made landfall as a 5 just south of the Rio Grand. Gusts to 136 mph at the port in Brownsville and spawned over 100 tornadoes

That 946 isnt forecast to weaken either. NOT GOOD
Troll Alert: JFVlandsOnYou and NeapolitansSocialistAgenda
Wiki..Hurricane Martha (1969) on November 21, 1969. The system was a strong tropical storm at this time. It struck Panama, the only tropical system recorded to do so.
Quoting mistymountainhop:
Troll Alert: JFVlandsOnYou and NeapolitansSocialistAgenda

Please flag, report, and ignore. TIA

Looking fairly dry over the next five days for the CONUS; according to the HPC's five day outlook:
Quoting Nekeopbarren:

Please flag, report, and ignore. TIA

Looking fairly dry over the next five days for the CONUS; according to the HPC's five day outlook:
And some more green over Texas...Which is good..
Quoting mistymountainhop:
Troll Alert: JFVlandsOnYou and NeapolitansSocialistAgenda



NeapolitansSocialistAgenda

What tipped you off on this one? LOL They may as well just announce as to why they are here and ignore themselves. ;-)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:



NeapolitansSocialistAgenda

What tipped you off on this one? LOL They may as well just announce as to why they are here and ignore themselves. ;-)
as teh other blogger said, its best to ignore and they will go away,,
the rate of increase averaged about .0001 parts per million per year – in other words, one hundred parts per million every million years. Fossil fuel burning is now causing carbon dioxide concentrations to increase at two parts per million per year.


Quite an experiment we are putting our home in..


I've been wondering when the threat of meters of sea level rise by the end of the century would surface. Some field scientists were at my Great Uncle's beach a few years ago..They had been to Bermuda, Greenland to FL & had discovered that in the past there had been very sudden rises, painted a grim picture indeed.
94W

Been watching this feature. interestin seems
Quoting Skyepony:
the rate of increase averaged about .0001 parts per million per year %u2013 in other words, one hundred parts per million every million years. Fossil fuel burning is now causing carbon dioxide concentrations to increase at two parts per million per year.


Quite an experiment we are putting our home in..


I've been wondering when the threat of meters of sea level rise by the end of the century would surface. Some field scientists were at my Great Uncle's beach a few years ago..They had been to Bermuda, Greenland to FL & had discovered that in the past there had been very sudden rises, painted a grim picture indeed.
Proof that the Cryosphere is melting at an alarming rate is irrefutable whether its man made or not, and I believe that as time goes by, this process will accelerate exponentially, providing that there is not some force of nature or cataclysmic event to prevent this trend from continuing. There are scientist who knew this would happen decades ago and they were ignored by many. Now soon we will see just true there predictions actually were.
In 2011, there were at least 2,941 monthly weather records broken in communities throughout the U.S., as detailed in a new interactive extreme weather mapping tool and year-end review released today by the Natural Resources Defense Council. The powerful web-based tool allows Americans to draw the connections between climate change (http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/climatebasics.a sp) and extreme weather in the cities and towns in which they live.

"From heat waves to floods to fires, 2011 was a year of extreme weather for communities throughout the United States. This alarming, yet illuminating data is indicative of what we can expect as climate change continues," said Kim Knowlton, NRDC Senior Scientist who spearheaded the development of the web-based tool. "Actions can be taken today to limit the worst effects of climate change. Our leaders need to make climate change preparedness a priority, if these events will be occurring more frequently and with more intensity."

The national survey provides a unique aggregation of state-by-state extreme weather, detailing a range of extreme weather events including record-breaking temperatures, rainfall and snowfall in each state. The survey found at least 1,302 heat-related records, 1,090 rainfall records and 549 snowfall records were broken in counties across the nation. Especially hard-hit regions include the Midwest and Northeast, which endured heavy flooding and the greater Texas region, which endured an extended period of wildfires, extreme heat and drought.

The damage caused by the unparalleled weather extremes of 2011 has cost an estimated $53 billion. Hurricane Irene and Midwest and Mississippi River flooding this summer amounted to over $20 billion in costs and nearly 60 deaths. Southwestern droughts, heat waves and wildfires took a toll on ranchers and food producers, who experienced over $10 billion total direct losses to agriculture, cattle and structures, this year alone. more here

Here is the extreme weather map & an easy way to tell congress to do something..
Seasonal variation and annual decrease of Arctic sea ice volume as estimated by measurement backed numerical modelling.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Not anytime soon my friend.


Actually we may get it sooner then you think. The QBO has just recently tanked both in the 30MB and 50MB range after being incredibly positive last month!

A sharply negative QBO typically corresponds to warming of the Stratospheric North Pole which in turn causes the AO/NAO to tank-creating a block over Greenland!

If the PNA coroperates, this should telleconnect to a nice pattern change come December 20th-23rd for a eastern 2/3rd of the U.S.

Now that we have sighns of blocking, it's not a question of if but when?
Quoting weatherbro:


Actually we may get it sooner then you think. The QBO has just recently tanked both in the 30MB and 50MB range after being incredibly positive last month!

A sharply negative QBO typically corresponds to warming of the Stratospheric North Pole which in turn causes the AO/NAO to tank-creating a block over Greenland!

If the PNA coroperates, this should telleconnect to a nice pattern change come December 20th-23rd for a eastern 2/3rd of the U.S.

Now that we have sighns of blocking, it's not a question of if but when?


Just in time for a possible white Christmas!
These Climate Talks, in Durban are coming to an end and delegates are calling for capping the temperature rises at 2/c above pre industrial levels, there are a lot of links and stories about this today.
They talk about being in agreement about levels by 2020 and some sort of treaty thing by 2015. I'm sure lots of people will have read these reports.
What has to be taken into account is that even if all emissions of greenhouse gases were stopped now, it might be too late anyway as with the temperature rises that are being recorded then the world might be entering into an upward temperature spiral due to new emissions of gases which people can do nothing about as ice and permafrost melt.No doubt soon storms will start to rage across a newly melted arctic ocean, churning up all sorts of dormant sediments.
There is a strong possibility or probability that nothing can be done now to reverse the warming processes, more fires and droughts will add more gases, especially from arctic regions where they will burn unchecked.
Being realistic; you can't ask 7 billion people to suffer hardship voluntarily, the majority of them just won't listen but how can legislation work when we don't yet have enough of it? Quandary?
"We are now very, very close to the attractor"

Terence McKenna

"We are coming close to a tremendous transformation,

and we are going to see it in our own lives,

something so rare and unique which has never happened before,

and will never happen again."



There are now 377 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Friday.
Thinking about:-219. Skyepony.
Records being broken etc.
I often fall into the way of thinking that what I am experiencing where I am is whats going on to the exclusion of other places. I'm in the UK for a while, so we have storms, wind records,etc.
I just did a quick calculation which may not be totally accurate but as most of the contributers are in the USA, then they have about one fifteenth of the worlds LAND area!{Including Alaska and the islands.} If records are being broken in similar proportions to the ones in the USA then we must look at up to 15 times the amount of records being broken on a global scale.
If I was a scientist with any kind of influence then I would be using it to the best of my abilities to get attention drawn to this.
Today's records might be tomorrows Norm.
228. N3EG
Quoting Patrap:
Terence McKenna>


According to him, global warming means less psychedelic mushrooms.
Quoting bappit:

I'm doubtful they have palm trees growing on open ground in Scotland. Also, you might want to check this out.

Climate mythology: The Gulf Stream, European climate and Abrupt Change

"... the northward heat transport by the Gulf Stream is the reason why western Europe enjoys a mild climate, much milder than, say, that of eastern North America. This idea was actually originated by an American military man, Matthew Fontaine Maury, in the mid nineteenth century and has stuck since despite the absence of proof.

"We now know this is a myth, the climatological equivalent of an urban legend. In a detailed study published in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society in 2002, we demonstrated the limited role that ocean heat transport plays in determining regional climates around the Atlantic Ocean."


"We showed that there are three processes that need to be evaluated:

1. The ocean absorbs heat in summer and releases it in winter. Regions that are downwind of oceans in winter will have mild climates. This process does not require ocean currents or ocean heat transport.

2. The atmosphere moves heat poleward and warm climates where the heat converges. In additions, the waviness in the atmospheric flow creates warm climates where the air flows poleward and cold climates where it flows equatorward.

3. The ocean moves heat poleward and will warm climates where it releases heat and the atmosphere picks it up and moves it onto land.

"Using observations and climate models we found that, at the latitudes of Europe, the atmospheric heat transport exceeds that of the ocean by several fold. In winter it may even by an order of magnitude greater. Thus it is the atmosphere, not the ocean, that does the lion's share of the work ameliorating winter climates in the extratropics. We also found that the seasonal absorption and release of heat by the ocean has a much larger impact on regional climates than does the movement of heat by ocean currents."


Thank you for your reply. I admit that my comment on the Gulf Stream is out-dated, but that's what I was taught at school. Thanks for the link to catch up with modern science :) I have a question regarding Seager's paper: Does the argument of being downwind in winter and thus receiving the milder winds from the ocean also apply, e.g. to the West coast of Canada? Is it much milder than the East coast?

As for the palm trees: the caption under the picture says that it was shot at Largs at the West coast of Scotland so there are palm trees. Here's another picture of palm trees in Largs: Largs' seaside
It's the fourth picture from the bottom. This said, we also have palm trees here in Bangor, North Wales at latitude 53228' N.
There's also an article on BBC Scotland about a man who has a 22ft palm tree in his garden in Eastern Scotland, which is much rarer than at the West coast. (Apologies, the article also mentions the Gulf Stream as the source of the warmth)
And speaking of disasters, I just ran across this: Chiefio. The Fukushima disaster was due in part to emergency generators getting stuck in a traffic jam.
Get out! Palm trees in Scotland? Learn something new every day whether I want to or not. :)

Yep, east coast of North America is cooler than the west coast except for the effects of upwelling of cold water.

Found this in wikipedia:

"The northernmost native palm is Chamaerops humilis, which reaches 44°N latitude in southern France.[9] The southernmost palm is the Rhopalostylis sapida, which reaches 44°S on the Chatham Islands where an oceanic climate prevails.[9] Some palms, such as the Trachycarpus fortunei, grow well under cultivation as far north as over 50°N in oceanic climates (Ireland, Scotland and coastal British Columbia- Vancouver/ Vancouver Island)."
Thanks to seflagamma and juslivin for discovering this and posting it at Gamma's wublog.

Holiday Greetings from your friendly NOAA Weather Radio Robot
:)



video credit: youtube user kb9mwr
Imagine if the currents reversed themselves...Is it possible?
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Thanks to seflagamma and juslivin for discovering this and posting it at Gamma's wublog.

Holiday Greetings from your friendly NOAA Weather Radio Robot
:)



video credit: youtube user kb9mwr


LOL!!!
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Thanks to seflagamma and juslivin for discovering this and posting it at Gamma's wublog.

Holiday Greetings from your friendly NOAA Weather Radio Robot
:)



video credit: youtube user kb9mwr


LOL. nice. only part needs fixing is the 'happy holidays' in the corner. was that message broadcast on all the weather radios?
There is 50,000 in Scotland with no power due to weather, 30,000 in Nova Scotia, ~8,000 in Finland & Ireland was hammered. Volcano activity in Myanmar (Burma), an Eruption in Japan.
Quoting Skyepony:
There is 50,000 in Scotland with no power due to weather, 30,000 in Nova Scotia, ~8,000 in Finland & Ireland was hammered. Volcano activity in Myanmar (Burma), an Eruption in Japan.


2012!!!!!!!
Quoting SPLbeater:


LOL. nice. only part needs fixing is the 'happy holidays' in the corner. was that message broadcast on all the weather radios?


Have no idea. Posted all I know about the vid. May not be be an official government thing.

It is funny. Good to see you laugh.
:)
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Have no idea. Posted all I know about the vid. May not be be an official government thing.

It is funny. Good to see you laugh.
:)


gots me a NOAA weather radio sitting 18" behind me, scares me sometimes when it goes off for warning lol. like wednesday, there were 2 severe T-storms that rored thru my area. (bow echoes)
i am bored with no tropics. 70% of my weather interest is tropics, heh.
I HAVE A QUESTION FOR ALL KNOWLEDGABLE WEATHER JUNKIES AND COMPUTER GEEKS HERE.

how do i get my website to show up in google search?
Quoting SPLbeater:
I HAVE A QUESTION FOR ALL KNOWLEDGABLE WEATHER JUNKIES AND COMPUTER GEEKS HERE.

how do i get my website to show up in google search?


You need to optimize your website meta code for search engines. From what I recall, your website is a webs website, which makes that impossible (I think).

Otherwise: Link
Temps sure going to plummet overnight with the clear skies, light wind, and recent snow cover, albeit a dusting. Some radiational cooling.

Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport
Lat: 41.93 Lon: -88.25 Elev: 758
Last Update on Dec 9, 3:52 pm CST


Fair

24 °F
(-4 °C) Humidity: 50 %
Wind Speed: W 13 MPH
Barometer: 30.30" (1027.4 mb)
Dewpoint: 8 °F (-13 °C)
Wind Chill: 12 °F (-11 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi
Quoting KoritheMan:


Personally, I think that the cold continents/warm arctic pattern is one that is likely to persist as the planet warms. I realize you are not a proponent of AGW, but I think it's an interesting concept to consider despite that.


Well that's one of the reasons why I'm not really that big on the AGW deal.

The fact is, I don't care how bright of a scientist someone might be. It doesn't mean they don't have an agenda. We are all prone to agendas because human beings naturally struggle with selfishness and putting our ideas as foundation rather than seeking the actual truth. It makes it that much easier for someone in authority, because they have the experience and knowledge to speak with authority.


Its very easy for smart people to take real scientific data and use it to make people believe in an agenda. Remember, we learn in college how to persuade people to believe your argument, which is good if its used for good but not good if its not.

That being said, I don't think there is some huge conspiracy composed of fabricated data and lying scientists backing it. That is ridiculous, and paranoid to believe so. I'm sure the scientists believe it. But its pretty clear to me those who are so sure of AGW put a spin on things, so to speak.

There's no way we fully can be sure we know what will happen to the global climate as a result of man caused additives. The Earths climate is just too complex. There's nothing wrong with being into the science of trying to. But people must not speak as gods of science and climate. We are human, and as much as we've learned. To be human is to err. And thank God, if we learn to humble ourselves more and realize this, and work together more we would all accomplish scientific goals that much more efficiently.



There's is enough scientific data and research to make it clear man has done environmental damage that is significant. But we just don't know how it will effect things. Weather globally hasn't even followed claims that were made about GW even 5 years ago the way we thought. Therefore, the farther you go into the future, the more that will probably increase.


One thing we all should be able to agree on. Is that man has upset the balance of nature, and we no longer are ignorant of this, so we must learn yo be better swards of the earth. Its cruel and unloving, and downright foolish not to.

BTW, for any of you who might be going to FSU next fall for meteorology or who are already there. You never know, you might just run into me there! lol
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well that's one of the reasons why I'm not really that big on the AGW deal.

The fact is, I don't care how bright of a scientist someone might be. It doesn't mean they don't have an agenda. We are all prone to agendas because human beings naturally struggle with selfishness and putting our ideas as foundation rather than seeking the actual truth. It makes it that much easier for someone in authority, because they have the experience and knowledge to speak with authority.


Its very easy for smart people to take real scientific data and use it to make people believe in an agenda. Remember, we learn in college how to persuade people to believe your argument, which is good if its used for good but not good if its not.

That being said, I don't think there is some huge conspiracy composed of fabricated data and lying scientists backing it. That is ridiculous, and paranoid to believe so. I'm sure the scientists believe it. But its pretty clear to me those who are so sure of AGW put a spin on things, so to speak.

There's no way we fully can be sure we know what will happen to the global climate as a result of man caused additives. The Earths climate is just too complex. There's nothing wrong with being into the science of trying to. But people must not speak as gods of science and climate. We are human, and as much as we've learned. To be human is to err. And thank God, if we learn to humble ourselves more and realize this, and work together more we would all accomplish scientific goals that much more efficiently.



There's is enough scientific data and research to make it clear man has done environmental damage that is significant. But we just don't know how it will effect things. Weather globally hasn't even followed claims that were made about GW even 5 years ago the way we thought. Therefore, the farther you go into the future, the more that will probably increase.


One thing we all should be able to agree on. Is that man has upset the balance of nature, and we no longer are ignorant of this, so we must learn yo be better swards of the earth. Its cruel and unloving, and downright foolish not to.

BTW, for any of you who might be going to FSU next fall for meteorology or who are already there. You never know, you might just run into me there! lol


Not next year, but the year after that maybe. That is, if I don't get into PSU...
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well that's one of the reasons why I'm not really that big on the AGW deal.

The fact is, I don't care how bright of a scientist someone might be. It doesn't mean they don't have an agenda. We are all prone to agendas because human beings naturally struggle with selfishness and putting our ideas as foundation rather than seeking the actual truth. It makes it that much easier for someone in authority, because they have the experience and knowledge to speak with authority.


Its very easy for smart people to take real scientific data and use it to make people believe in an agenda. Remember, we learn in college how to persuade people to believe your argument, which is good if its used for good but not good if its not.

That being said, I don't think there is some huge conspiracy composed of fabricated data and lying scientists backing it. That is ridiculous, and paranoid to believe so. I'm sure the scientists believe it. But its pretty clear to me those who are so sure of AGW put a spin on things, so to speak.

There's no way we fully can be sure we know what will happen to the global climate as a result of man caused additives. The Earths climate is just too complex. There's nothing wrong with being into the science of trying to. But people must not speak as gods of science and climate. We are human, and as much as we've learned. To be human is to err. And thank God, if we learn to humble ourselves more and realize this, and work together more we would all accomplish scientific goals that much more efficiently.



There's is enough scientific data and research to make it clear man has done environmental damage that is significant. But we just don't know how it will effect things. Weather globally hasn't even followed claims that were made about GW even 5 years ago the way we thought. Therefore, the farther you go into the future, the more that will probably increase.


One thing we all should be able to agree on. Is that man has upset the balance of nature, and we no longer are ignorant of this, so we must learn yo be better swards of the earth. Its cruel and unloving, and downright foolish not to.

BTW, for any of you who might be going to FSU next fall for meteorology or who are already there. You never know, you might just run into me there! lol

Hey, Jed. The thing is, the planet is warming rapidly, and that's a fact that's been established through multiple independent lines of research, and across multiple scientific disciplines. And, as was shown again just this week, it's highly to very likely that our unimpeded burning of fossil fuel is to blame for between three-quarters of that warming and 100% of it. IOW, we humans are conducting a massive, unprecedented, and difficult-to-reverse thermal experiment on this, the only habitable planet our species has ever known. And that is "downright foolish" indeed.
Very well written post Jedkins. Post # 244.
Quoting SPLbeater:


gots me a NOAA weather radio sitting 18" behind me, scares me sometimes when it goes off for warning lol. like wednesday, there were 2 severe T-storms that rored thru my area. (bow echoes)

Know what you mean. I don't know where you live but I live in Oklahoma and don't go anywhere without my friendly weather robot when severe might be in the air.

Have a good eve.
229. taistelutipu
I am sticking my neck out a bit on this one regarding the "palm tree," but I am almost sure that it is not a palm tree, it is a type of yucca or similar.
In the village square in my village in Spain we have these plants and they have large bunches of white flowers on them in the late spring, they grow very slowly and sometimes the leaves which are single blade types have sharp spikes on them like a cactus. I have seen them with snow on them and they are not bothered by heavy frosts.
I'm sure somebody in the southern US or Mexico areas will know what they are but I don't think they are normal palm tree family which I think is related to grasses.
Quoting Patrap:
"We are now very, very close to the attractor"

Terence McKenna

"We are coming close to a tremendous transformation,

and we are going to see it in our own lives,

something so rare and unique which has never happened before,

and will never happen again."



There are now 377 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Friday.
Do you follow him? He is the only guy I can stand to listen to hours on end. Too bad he's no longer with us.
Quoting weatherbro:
Imagine if the currents reversed themselves...Is it possible?

I'm pretty sure the currents go Poleward on the western end of the basin due to the direction of the Earth's rotation, so I would say that no, it is not possible for them to reverse.
From a programme I saw recently on BBC TV with a chap called Attenborough narrating it.
Something of interest and potentially far reaching consequences both in time and connected to possible sea rise.
Part of the programme covered the break up and dissolving of glaciers both in Greenland and the Antarctic.
Due to ice behaving as a very slow moving liquid it can be plugged, or its movements slowed, if the base of the glacier is locked to the seabed. Recently speculation has arisen that as large ice sheets break up along coasts then the ice masses behind them may flow much more quickly towards the sea than previously. It could of course refreeze to the seabed, slowing the increased flow speed but its thought that due to slightly warmer sea waters along the coasts it won't.
Bit of a long term plan so to speak but it is thought there is enough water locked up in these areas to raise the sea by over 100 meters,was stated in the programme.
Polar Bear trying to push an icebreaker ship away..

Quoting PlazaRed:
229. taistelutipu
I am sticking my neck out a bit on this one regarding the "palm tree," but I am almost sure that it is not a palm tree, it is a type of yucca or similar.
In the village square in my village in Spain we have these plants and they have large bunches of white flowers on them in the late spring, they grow very slowly and sometimes the leaves which are single blade types have sharp spikes on them like a cactus. I have seen them with snow on them and they are not bothered by heavy frosts.
I'm sure somebody in the southern US or Mexico areas will know what they are but I don't think they are normal palm tree family which I think is related to grasses.


Fair enough, those in Largs are a rather small variety but have you looked at the other link with a proper tall palm tree growing in Eastern Scotland? With Britain's climate gradually warming we might see more of them.
Also, Manchester City Council plans to plant date palm trees in their parks. The article is from 2006 so I assume that they have done that already.

There are actually articles advising people on growing palm trees in their gardens and here's a choice of palm trees that are hardy enough to grow in Britain. You be the judge what actually counts as a palm tree and what doesn't. I'm not an expert on that. The Largs 'palm trees' seem to be of the Cordyline varieties.

British people seem to like a bit of 'holiday flair' in their gardens and at the coast we rarely have sub 0°C temperatures, so the palms / yuccas do very well.
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - Floods and mudslides unleashed by torrential rains have caused at least eight deaths in Venezuela, a government official said Friday.

Thousands of families have left their homes to take refuge in government disaster shelters, Interior and Justice Minister Tareck El Aissami said.

Five people died in western Zulia state, while three others died in Caracas and adjacent Miranda state, El Aissami said.

President Hugo Chavez's government has ordered the military and rescue teams to be on alert in several regions of the country that have seen heavy rains this week. El Aissami said at a news conference that Chavez has been closely monitoring the government's efforts to help flood victims.

Heavy rains at the end of 2010 also forced tens of thousands of Venezuelans into shelters. Some are still in shelters nearly a year later, while others were moved into new public housing.

El Aissami said about 29,000 families are being housed in hundreds of shelters due to this week's rains and more than 1,000 homes have been seriously damaged.

He said the government is providing about $350 in cash assistance to each family. The government ordered schools closed due to the deluges.

Parts of neighboring Colombia have also been coping with floods. Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos toured flooded areas south of Bogota on Friday and promised assistance to those whose houses have been damaged.
...new blog.


Patrap writes:

There are now 377 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Friday


Isn't there supposed to be some goofy word that starts with the letter "g" in your post Pat?