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TSR predicts very active hurricane season; Atlantic May MDR SSTs warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:51 PM GMT on June 10, 2010

The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for an exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. The latest TSR forecast issued June 4 calls for 17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 181% of average. These numbers are much above the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are an increase from their April forecast of 16.3 named storms, 8.5 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The TSR June forecast numbers are the highest they've ever gone for in the eleven years they've been issuing Atlantic hurricane season forecasts. TSR predicts a 85-90% chance that activity will rank in the top 1/3 of years historically, and a 85% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average. TSR rates their skill level as 20-34% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 1) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers.

TSR projects that 5.7 named storms will hit the U.S., with 2.5 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2009 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 10 - 17% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.8 named storms, 0.8 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their forecast of an exceptionally active season:

1) Their model predicts that sea surface temperatures will be 0.6°C warmer than average in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. This is the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W). It is called the Main Development Region because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)

2) Their model predicts slower than normal trade winds in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR). Trade winds are forecast to be 1.2 meters per second (about 2.7 mph) slower than average. This would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to warm up, due to reduced mixing of cold water from the depths and lower evaporational cooling.


Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and tropicalstormrisk.com (TSR) from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.

2010 hurricane season forecasts from CSU and NOAA
NOAA's 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, issued May 27, called for 18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 210% of normal (using the mid-point of their range of numbers.) The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Colorado State University (CSU) issued on June 2 called for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. So, the consensus forecast from NOAA, CSU, and TSR is 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. The June forecast numbers from all three groups were the highest they've ever gone for in their history of issuing Atlantic hurricane season forecasts.

May SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest May on record, according to an analysis of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were a remarkable 1.51°C above average during May. This is the fourth straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month. The previous record warmest anomaly for the Atlantic MDR was 1.46°C, set last month. Third place goes to June 2005 and March 2010, with a 1.26°C anomaly. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. However, trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to near-normal speeds over the past week, since the Bermuda-Azores High has strengthened to near-normal pressures. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to increase to above average strength during mid-June, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies have probably peaked for the year, and we can anticipate that the June SST anomaly in the MDR will not be as great as the May anomaly--and may even fall below the June record set in 2005.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for June 10, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Oil spill update
Light southeast or south winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model are not predicting eastward-moving ocean currents along the Florida Panhandle coast this week, and it is unlikely that surface oil will affect areas of Florida east of Pensacola. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a southeasterly wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 3. The oil spill as imaged on June 9, 2010, by NOAA's Terra satellite. The spill appears highly reflective in the sunglint portion of the image.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have a new post on Friday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Atlantic tropical update:

1. TUTT in Caribbean has sheared convection away from the tropical wave in E Caribbean (yawn)

2. Tropical waves and ITCZ producing convection in the SW Caribbean with upper divergence between west side of TUTT and SE side of Gulf ridge, but too much northerly shear (yawn)

3. Strong tropical wave emerging from Africa looks nice now, but will hit shear at 30 W (yawn)

Conclusion, yawn


Then why are you still here lol
Quoting SouthALWX:

what is your definition of "marginal" SSTs?


The temps are around 28 to 29 C, the boundary for development is said to be 26 + C. I meant they were close to the margin (boundary) for development. But I guess on how you look at it, 28/29 is somewhat warm and not that marginal.

This wave maybe in an interest later if that TUTT diminshes by the time the wave is in the Caribbean. But for now, tropics to me are yawn.
Good night all!
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


The temps are around 28 to 29 C, the boundary for development is said to be 26 + C. I meant they were close to the margin (boundary) for development. But I guess on how you look at it, 28/29 is somewhat warm and not that marginal.

This wave maybe in an interest later if that TUTT diminshes by the time the wave is in the Caribbean. But for now, tropics to me are yawn.


Then stop yawning and go to bed.
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Then why are you still here lol


Idk, I guess learning to understand why things aren't ready to develop is as interesting as when things are active.
yea marginal as a word to describe the SSTs is laughable at best lol
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Cynthia here i just want to give an update on the condition of Alex if you werent here earlier today Alex suffered a seizure and went to the hospital he is still being worked on by doctors to see what caused it and he cant speak right now but i have faith that he will recover thank you for the support and i will give updates as they come available.

Cynthia Barrios
He is in our prayers and hope for a speedy recovery.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good night all!


Bye!
Quoting Hurricanes101:
yea marginal as a word to describe the SSTs is laughable at best lol


I think I picked up the word "marginal" from NHC tropical weather outlooks, I have seen that word being used somewhere, LOL.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I think I picked up the word "marginal" from NHC tropical weather outlooks, I have seen that word being used somewhere, LOL.


water temps are running above normal over most of the Atlantic
Quoting louisianaboy444:


I see 5 kts of wind shear over the system with an Anticyclone sitting over it...

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


Aren't you talking about over land. What about the shear that is ahead of the system?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


The temps are around 28 to 29 C, the boundary for development is said to be 26 + C. I meant they were close to the margin (boundary) for development. But I guess on how you look at it, 28/29 is somewhat warm and not that marginal.

This wave maybe in an interest later if that TUTT diminshes by the time the wave is in the Caribbean. But for now, tropics to me are yawn.

28/29 approaching 30 is anything BUT marginal.
I see what you are saying, but 78.8F versus nearing 86F is HUGE. (thats equivalent to over 1KM moist adiabat)
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Aren't you talking about over land. What about the shear that is ahead of the system?


anywhere from 5-20 knots, the further west you go the more unfavorable the winds become, but the shear off of Africa isn't unfavorable for development
Quoting Hurricanes101:


water temps are running above normal over most of the Atlantic


Yeah, I guess I shouldn't have used the word marginal. Just curious, what is the typical water temp off of west Africa for June (I saw that they are 28/29ish from the satellite animation at:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah, I guess I shouldn't have used the word marginal. Just curious, what is the typical water temp off of west Africa for June (I saw that they are 28/29ish from the satellite animation at:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html


usually around 25C
Quoting Hurricanes101:


usually around 25C


WHOAA, now I really see my choice of the word marginal was a poor choice LOL
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah, I guess I shouldn't have used the word marginal. Just curious, what is the typical water temp off of west Africa for June (I saw that they are 28/29ish from the satellite animation at:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html

normally, around this time they would be marginal. They are over 1C above average.
By the way, just noticed the tropics globally are quiet. What happened to the always busy W-Pac?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
By the way, just noticed the tropics globally are quiet. What happened to the always busy W-Pac?


ssh! They are asleep!
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
By the way, just noticed the tropics globally are quiet. What happened to the always busy W-Pac?
They are plotting something...something Mischievous!
1021. Drakoen
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
kmanislander not only that but that wave still has a little extra kick beside the energy that it already have plus the added energy from the MJO as pointed out below and the low level steering, it is starting to move more WNW in the W Caribbean and maybe more of a Northern turn later in the weekend





Fast moving low level winds not conducive for development.
Come on Atlantic! Wake up! You have until the end of next week!
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


ssh! They are asleep!

lol
hey all still here in san antonio and yes i hope alex feels better in the upcoming weeks to come hes in our prayers :)
Maybe its time for a little game.

I have a good visual memory, if you posted any picture of Atlantic tropical cyclone in the past decade, I could guess which one it is real quick.
I swear, there maybe a lot of lights on here.. but not a lot of people home. The GOM should be praying for a long long delay until something happens. They need every minute to get the mess cleaned up, and a new cap put on the wellhead.

If you got a System now... you would be far worse then just back to square one capping the well.. it would be an unimaginable disaster.
1027. xcool
:) hey rob



DaaaaDaaaaaaa....the Panama Blob has gone pooofff.....i can't believe it....LOL
Quoting Orcasystems:
I swear, there maybe a lot of lights on here.. but not a lot of people home. The GOM should be praying for a long long delay until something happens. They need every minute to get the mess cleaned up, and a new cap put on the wellhead.

If you got a System now... you would be far worse then just back to square one capping the well.. it would be an unimaginable disaster.


Yes, I think the quiet tropics now is good news. Things can get too crazy and hard to keep up with when it gets active, and I have been through a hurricane before, its NOT fun.
hey
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Maybe its time for a little game.

I have a good visual memory, if you posted any picture of Atlantic tropical cyclone in the past decade, I could guess which one it is real quick.


Dont even try to look at the address, because I re-uploaded it with Tinypic ;)
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:




Alex of '04
Hurricane Alex 2004 in post 1031

Darn, wasn't fast enough to answer first, LOL
Quoting Orcasystems:
I swear, there maybe a lot of lights on here.. but not a lot of people home. The GOM should be praying for a long long delay until something happens. They need every minute to get the mess cleaned up, and a new cap put on the wellhead.

If you got a System now... you would be far worse then just back to square one capping the well.. it would be an unimaginable disaster.


YEP your right......can you imiagine a Cat3 in the middle of the GOM and moving up the West Coast of Florida.....heck the Downtown area of Tampa would flood with a Cat. 2 and then could you imiagine a flood gate of OIL in the DownTown area ......It could happen.
Quoting TampaSpin:


YEP your right......can you imiagine a Cat3 in the middle of the GOM and moving up the West Coast of Florida.....heck the Downtown area of Tampa would flood with a Cat. 2 and then could you imiagine a flood gate of OIL in the DownTown area ......It could happen.


No! No! No!
Your supposed to say "It could happen tomorrow"
Quoting NOVArules:
They are plotting something...something Mischievous!
well wouldn't that be something no storms no where sst's continue on the rise no relief from record highs to my surprise a climate shift arise as ice melts before our eyes
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Hurricane Alex 2004 in post 1031

Darn, wasn't fast enough to answer first, LOL

Lol, I beat you by like a couple seconds. We need a rematch...
Quoting MrstormX:


Lol, I beat you by like a couple seconds. We need a rematch...


By the way, is that icon you use for your posts a radar image of Claudette last year?
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


No! No! No!
Your supposed to say "It could happen tomorrow"


The ultimate Wish-casting show on the worst TV station of all time. The night of the tornado outbreak, instead of reporting the weather to people they showed a bunch of hippies tracking Hurricane Bill along the SE Coast. They were hoping he would make landfall there as a major hurricane, what a horrible, cruel show.
Quoting Orcasystems:
I swear, there maybe a lot of lights on here.. but not a lot of people home. The GOM should be praying for a long long delay until something happens. They need every minute to get the mess cleaned up, and a new cap put on the wellhead.

If you got a System now... you would be far worse then just back to square one capping the well.. it would be an unimaginable disaster.


It's beyond comprehension. Even the Armageddon Channel (formerly known as The History Channel) couldn't foresee this possibility.
The icon in post 1036 (the one for WinterAnalystwx13) I think is Hurricane Wilma 2005
Rematch! Go!

Hurricane Erika 2003
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


By the way, is that icon you use for your posts a radar image of Claudette last year?


Yes it is, for those who remember me from last year my avatar was a sattelite picture of Bertha, and the year before that it was Dean. I try to update my avatar at the end of each season, with the storm from the season before I found most interesting.
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Rematch! Go!



No idea...

Edit: Ahh crap it was erika
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Hurricane Erika 2003


How'd you know that??
I have good visual memory, it weirds me out sometimes too, LOL
Idk why I asked that. Its only 9 years you have to look through...lol.

Why dont we go back to the 1990s, eh?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I have good visual memory, it weirds me out sometimes too, LOL


Yah I had seen that image on Wikipedia before but forgot the name of the storm, I must admit that is one of the ugliest hurricanes I have ever seen.
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Idk why I asked that. Its only 9 years you have to look through...lol.

Why dont we go back to the 1990s, eh?


Alright, know the storms best in the latter half of that decade.
Erika '03
'90s wont be fun, but i'll try
Actually, gotta go. We can do this tomorrow!
Atlantic SST anomalies have probably peaked for the year, and we can anticipate that the June SST anomaly in the MDR will not be as great as the May anomaly--and may even fall below the June record set in 2005. Jeff Masters

Nuthin lasts forever.Loop
Click on SSTs. Everything in the Caribbean is either 29 or 30C.
Ha Ha okay then
Alright, good night,

By the way, the icon for Wunderkidcayman must be Hurricane Ida 2009
1057. NCHurricane2009

good call
I wonder whether we are seeing another Oksana type situation here.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
1057. NCHurricane2009

good call


Visual memory rocks, LOL
Quoting Orcasystems:
I swear, there maybe a lot of lights on here.. but not a lot of people home. The GOM should be praying for a long long delay until something happens. They need every minute to get the mess cleaned up, and a new cap put on the wellhead.

If you got a System now... you would be far worse then just back to square one capping the well.. it would be an unimaginable disaster.


What he said!!
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Rematch! Go!


hey that hit here lol
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I wonder whether we are seeing another Oksana type situation here.


Was wondering same thing.
We're lookin at 29-30C in the MDR now.
(click on SST's)
Loop
1065. xcool
hmm
btwntx08, are you from brownsville, Texas?
I've got a image... Lets see if anyone can figure this hurricane's name out.


Quoting kmanislander:


So very sorry to hear that. Stay positive. Modern medicine can work wonders. I will be thinking of you both.
I am sorry to hear about Alex.I too suffer from seizures.My Dr. said mine were stress induced type seizures.I will be praying for both of you.Give him a get well from me please.
ok what about this



and

Quoting NCHurricane2009:
btwntx08, are you from brownsville, Texas?

yep,but right now im in san antonio right now lol,i remember that storm lol
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok what about this



and



Charley
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok what about this



and



Charley and Ivan
1067 Beta 2005

1069 Ivan and Charley 2004
Good evening!

Quoting MrstormX:
I've got a image... Lets see if anyone can figure this hurricane's name out.



Beta from '05.
this one looks like Katrina to me.
Quoting MrstormX:
I've got a image... Lets see if anyone can figure this hurricane's name out.



dolly
Yep, Hurricane Beta 2005 is post 1067

In 2005, we ran out of English Alphabet names after Wilma. I pretty sure that's Beta of 2005
Yah those who said Beta got it right, impressive
1071. Hurricanes101
GOOD

1072. MrstormX
BETTER

1073. NCHurricane2009
WOW
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
1071. Hurricanes101
GOOD

1072. MrstormX
BETTER

1073. NCHurricane2009
WOW


I only see 1 pic in your post that is why I said Charley
man that hurricane looks like dolly the way the stucture is
Hurricane 101's icon is Hurrican Charley 2004, am I right?
Quoting btwntx08:
man that hurricane looks like dolly the way the stucture is


Im just surprised Beta was a category 3....
That trough that dominates the Atlantic needs to move out of the way then the season can start. 40-50kt upper level westerly shear is going to tear everything up for the time being. The jet stream is showing signs of heading more north in the next couple of weeks. That should help out help out with some development. Mid or late July all hell is going to break loose. All the pieces of the puzzle are all lining up in about 3-4 weeks. Looks like we are going to finally see a early active Cape Verde season for a change.
Quoting MrstormX:


Im just surprised Beta was a category 3....


Its intersting, I don't think the NHC would retire a greek alphabet storm name, would they?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Its intersting, I don't think the NHC would retire a greek alphabet storm name, would they?


On paper they could, in actuality they wouldn't.
Quoting MrstormX:


Im just surprised Beta was a category 3....

yea they looked similar
WHAT ABOUT THIS AND DO IT IN ORDER











Im pretty sure NCHurricane knows every single 21st century Atlantic Cyclone off the top of his head.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
WHAT ABOUT THIS AND DO IT IN ORDER













Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Epsilon, Zeta. Aka the greek canes
alpha, gamma, delta, epsilon, zeta
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
WHAT ABOUT THIS AND DO IT IN ORDER













See I only see 2 pics there
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Mrstormx is right, my internet connection wnet out on me, didn't get a chance at that one, LOL.


Only reason I knew is because I was just looking at those on Wikipedia.
Quoting MrstormX:
Im pretty sure NCHurricane knows every single 21st century Atlantic Cyclone off the top of his head.
That would be quite an accomplishment, given how busy it's been this century! Especially if you count the year 2000 as a part of it ;)
1090. MrstormX

LOL that one was easy
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
That would be quite an accomplishment, given how busy it's been this century! Especially if you count the year 2000 as a part of it ;)


Some people are just have an amazing niche memory like that. Its crazy
My view doesn't work fast either when multiple images are posted at the same time too.
this one should be the easest

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
this one should be the easest



Marco, tiny little thing
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
this one should be the easest



Marco, 2008
1098, Marco 2008
No one will get this, its impossible.

1102 Hurricane Gordon 2006?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
1102 Hurricane Gordon 2006?


Ha Ha! No
Hello! What's going, bloggers?


Ok how about this one
1107. xcool
hi
To post 1102, you got me there, my only other guess is Hurricane Albert 2000,

Doesn't look familiar, maybe its one that isn't in the Atlantic basin?
Quoting MrstormX:
No one will get this, its impossible.


Nargis
Post 1106 Isidore 2002
What are you guys up to tonight? Since the tropics are inactive for now.

yup its Isidore
Give up on mine yet?
Quoting MrstormX:
Give up on mine yet?


Yep, that one doesn't register
Ha, Wilma, no?
1102. MrstormX

either
fishy Lara or famous Grace

1106. Hurricanes101

the infamous Ike
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yep, that one doesn't register


Issac of 2006
Quoting MrstormX:


Issac of 2006


Hah, funny, I guessed the right year the first guess. At least I remembered correctly Isidore of 2002
guess I am wrong on these two
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Hah, funny, I guessed the right year the first guess


Off by only a couple storms
Quoting MrstormX:


Issac of 2006

wow you stumped him lol
Quoting Hurricanes101:

wow you stumped him lol


Its not the primary image most people associate with the system, so naturally people are less likely to recognize it.
the tropics will be very quiet as long as that strong westerly shear across the caribbean continues..anything tries to move into the caribbean will be crushed..the best part about this as long as this shear continues like it is la nina is showing no signs of development..this shear will last for sometime..it just doesnt look like a super active season to me..maybe and average one at best..
Quoting sleetman1:
the tropics will be very quiet as long as that strong westerly shear across the caribbean continues..anything tries to move into the caribbean will be crushed..the best part about this as long as this shear continues like it is la nina is showing no signs of development..this shear will last for sometime..it just doesnt look like a super active season to me..maybe and average one at best..


High shear in June is really typical, especially early June, whether the season is above average or not. There are also above-average years like 2004 where nothing started until July 31.
1125. xcool
yes nc hurricane im aware of that we will just have to wait and see..but if conditions stay the way they are la nina will sure not form..it will be impossible for that to happen this year..we will see in july perhaps the shear will lighten up by then..
lol siesta are you for real..just look at the latest satellite pic posted..you do know what shear is dont you?
Quoting sleetman1:
the tropics will be very quiet as long as that strong westerly shear across the caribbean continues..anything tries to move into the caribbean will be crushed..the best part about this as long as this shear continues like it is la nina is showing no signs of development..this shear will last for sometime..it just doesnt look like a super active season to me..maybe and average one at best..


you are crazy to think that on June 10th, it will be a very active season, the shear will let up and we will begin to see storms

Quoting sleetman1:
the tropics will be very quiet as long as that strong westerly shear across the caribbean continues..anything tries to move into the caribbean will be crushed..the best part about this as long as this shear continues like it is la nina is showing no signs of development..this shear will last for sometime..it just doesnt look like a super active season to me..maybe and average one at best..


It's June. Even 2005 had shear. In fact, during the period of July 28 to about the demise of Harvey, strong shear dominated.

EDIT: Actually, scratch that. IIRC, it persisted even longer; up until at least the first several days of Irene's life.
Quoting sleetman1:
yes nc hurricane im aware of that we will just have to wait and see..but if conditions stay the way they are la nina will sure not form..it will be impossible for that to happen this year..we will see in july perhaps the shear will lighten up by then..


the shear will lighten up within the next 2 weeks, all forecasts indicate that

do not turn a blind eye to that just so you can downcast the season

you are just another of the breed of people who feels they know more than anyone else
Quoting SiestaKeySam:



Hmmmm, spoken like a true deathcaster, gotta love it. Actually, what I find comical about you, is how you do not seem to back up anyone of your claims with concrete evidence, how come, huh?


because he is a troll, best to ignore him really
well hurricane 101 maybe so by mid july we will just have to wait and see...i cant see la nina being a threat to this hurricane season though..
Cynthia here Giving you guys an update well i thought it was a seizure could be something much worse as the doctors told us that he is not responsive and they are scared. we are terrified but he is a trooper and i bilieve whatever is ailing him will go away and he will be back here but right now he will need your prayers more than ever he tells me every day that you guys are his extended family thank you for your support and hopefully tomorrow will be a better day.

Cynthia Barrios
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Cynthia here Giving you guys an update well i thought it was a seizure could be something much worse as the doctors told us that he is not responsive and they are scared. we are terrified but he is a trooper and i bilieve whatever is ailing him will go away and he will be back here but right now he will need your prayers more than ever he tells me every day that you guys are his extended family thank you for your support and hopefully tomorrow will be a better day.

Cynthia Barrios


Ugh... I don't know what to say, other than I'm sorry.
any way I will leave you guys to argue with "sleetman1" but the way I think that shear will ease up and will contiue to ease starting mid weekend (SAT pm hours ) that it that I need to get somethink to eat and go to bead I got an exam to do in the morning
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Cynthia here Giving you guys an update well i thought it was a seizure could be something much worse as the doctors told us that he is not responsive and they are scared. we are terrified but he is a trooper and i bilieve whatever is ailing him will go away and he will be back here but right now he will need your prayers more than ever he tells me every day that you guys are his extended family thank you for your support and hopefully tomorrow will be a better day.

Cynthia Barrios


I am saddened and sorry to hear that. My prayers and hopes are with you.
You're right, I will. But, I really hate it when people say illogical things on here.
hey im giving my opinoin if you dont agree with me thats find i dont comment on your opinions..i did not say that you are wrong we will just see what happens..the exact same thing happened in 2006 when dr gray forcasted a very active season and he was caught off guard by the african dust which killed all the waves that tried to develop..so lets just wait and see and keep the name calling in another room..we are all grown ups we will agree and disagree thats part of life..
Quoting sleetman1:
well hurricane 101 maybe so by mid july we will just have to wait and see...i cant see la nina being a threat to this hurricane season though..


based on what? all indications that have been reported show La Nina conditions will prevail this hurricane season

but even if they dont, being neutral can be just as bad

in fact on average since the upswing in activity that started in 1995, Neutral seasons have either on par with or more active than La Nina seasons
Cynthia Barrios befor I go to bed I will pray for him and I will keep on praying you have my word I will
1142. xcool
tell alex i'm going prayers .
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Cynthia here Giving you guys an update well i thought it was a seizure could be something much worse as the doctors told us that he is not responsive and they are scared. we are terrified but he is a trooper and i bilieve whatever is ailing him will go away and he will be back here but right now he will need your prayers more than ever he tells me every day that you guys are his extended family thank you for your support and hopefully tomorrow will be a better day.

Cynthia Barrios


My prayers go out to him
One quick comment, and I'll leave the topic alone. If anyone is looking at the BP issue, there is interesting action on both the ROV's under Ocean Intervention 3. L8tr.
God bless him. I'll keep him in my prayers. Is it a neurology issue?
Quoting sleetman1:
hey im giving my opinoin if you dont agree with me thats find i dont comment on your opinions..i did not say that you are wrong we will just see what happens..the exact same thing happened in 2006 when dr gray forcasted a very active season and he was caught off guard by the african dust which killed all the waves that tried to develop..so lets just wait and see and keep the name calling in another room..we are all grown ups we will agree and disagree thats part of life..


To your credit, you might be correct about the likelihood of the continuance of high vertical shear across the basin. The models are currently foreseeing at least a week of strong vertical shear, though I'd like to see some consistency in these forecasts first, since previously, as in just about a day ago, they were forecasting the exact opposite.
korithe man we will just have to see what happens..i have my own opinion why i feel this is going to be no better then and average season..im still waiting to see where the azore and bermuda high will set up shop..that is a big factor..also the african dust once the cape verdes season kicks into gear..
Quoting sleetman1:
korithe man we will just have to see what happens..i have my own opinion why i feel this is going to be no better then and average season..im still waiting to see where the azore and bermuda high will set up shop..that is a big factor..also the african dust once the cape verdes season kicks into gear..


Understandable. But until we see where the Bermuda High is going to set up for the year, as well as what the SAL will be like, you cannot make a blanket statement in June claiming that the season is going to be average to below average. That just doesn't work.

Trying to predict the overall activity of a given season based purely on the activity in the quietest month of the season (generally) is akin to a crapshoot.
Overall, 00z GFS is wet in the MDR. The longer ranges also seem to be indicating a possible favorable MJO.
.....wave coming off africa looking good!!!!,maybe our next invest if it can survivr the next 24hrs IMO.....
Korith, plz do not add further fuel into the fire, if you will.
prayers said for your son and family cynthia and I will continue to pray for your will family...
Quoting SiestaKeySam:
Korith, plz do not add further fuel into the fire, if you will.


The only fire here is the fire that is allowed. He might well be a troll, but you need to give him the benefit of the doubt first. He might truly believe he sees something we don't. Give him a little bit before you derogatorily label him a troll.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Cynthia here Giving you guys an update well i thought it was a seizure could be something much worse as the doctors told us that he is not responsive and they are scared. we are terrified but he is a trooper and i bilieve whatever is ailing him will go away and he will be back here but right now he will need your prayers more than ever he tells me every day that you guys are his extended family thank you for your support and hopefully tomorrow will be a better day.

Cynthia Barrios


Alex will make it, I know he can. Thoughts and prayers are with him, you and the family.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Cynthia here Giving you guys an update well i thought it was a seizure could be something much worse as the doctors told us that he is not responsive and they are scared. we are terrified but he is a trooper and i bilieve whatever is ailing him will go away and he will be back here but right now he will need your prayers more than ever he tells me every day that you guys are his extended family thank you for your support and hopefully tomorrow will be a better day.

Cynthia Barrios

everyone here will continue to pray and all we can but i think something good will happen :)
1156. xcool
:0
Ok, I will.
The mood in here this morning, is very much a somber one, because of Alex's health situation, understandably so, I'd say, :(.
I'm sure that Ms. Barrios will continue to keep us updated on his health. Does anyone have him on FB?
1160. xcool


big foot come loook out hmmm



1102-
Quoting MrstormX:
No one will get this, its impossible.


Definitely looks like an Azores low/subtropical transition. My first guess is Vince

.. This is a great idea for downtime btw... Just make sure the storm name is not in the image properties! (This one does not appear to be, but a few others were)

... also @everyone stop feeding the troll(s).
quiet night
1102 - second guess is it's unnamed since you said "it's impossible". But no one is responding so I'm going to bed. Later JMBlog.
Quoting winter123:
1102 - second guess is it's unnamed since you said "it's impossible". But no one is responding so I'm going to bed. Later JMBlog.


It was already stated to be 2006's Isaac...
1165. xcool
1166. Walshy
Up to 24inches of new snow is possible in Wyoming.



And the tropics remain quiet.

Walshy, is your avatar supposed to be blank? Just curious.
not for long the quietness lol
1169. Walshy
Quoting KoritheMan:
Walshy, is your avatar supposed to be blank? Just curious.



Yes.
Quoting Walshy:



Yes.


Is it supposed to represent something, or was it just for the lulz?
1171. xcool
ok
1172. xcool



1173. Walshy
Quoting KoritheMan:


Is it supposed to represent something, or was it just for the lulz?


I had a image there but decided to remove it. Then it just went white.
Prayers and healing thoughts to Alex, you and your family. So sorry to hear about this.

Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Cynthia here Giving you guys an update well i thought it was a seizure could be something much worse as the doctors told us that he is not responsive and they are scared. we are terrified but he is a trooper and i bilieve whatever is ailing him will go away and he will be back here but right now he will need your prayers more than ever he tells me every day that you guys are his extended family thank you for your support and hopefully tomorrow will be a better day.

Cynthia Barrios
Quoting Walshy:


I had a image there but decided to remove it. Then it just went white.


Ah, gotcha. Kind of odd, though? I thought that once an avatar was removed, it was replaced with a different icon? Maybe it's just me.
Quoting xcool:




it shows 0000%
1177. xcool
btwntx08 yep :)
Uhhh, how depressing, geeze, oh well, G'nite, all.
well i g2g now we all hope that alex will be alright and we will probably have another update from sister which is nice of her and hope its good news well good night scott and everybody
1180. calder
on another note Link
Good Morning

Tropical Update

Have a good Friday
morning
we will have to watch this EALT troical wave very closely over the next few days.Conditions appear marginally favourable for development as the wave trek westward towards the southern and central windward islands. the situation will have to be be monitured closely
1183. hcubed
Earlier posts mentioned the missing boater. According to CNN, she's alive and well.

"(CNN) -- Australian authorities on Friday made contact with a 16-year-old American girl who triggered a distress signal while attempting to sail solo around the world.

But it could be a day before a French fishing vessel pulls Abby Sunderland and her boat, Wild Eyes, to shore, the Australian Maritime Safety Authority said.

"She's in the boat. The boat's seaworthy. It's not taking on water, and she's equipped for the conditions down there, we believe," said Mick Kinley of the Australian Maritime Safety Authority.

Sunderland triggered the distress signal Thursday during rough seas.

"She's been dismasted. The rigging's over the side and in the water," Kinley told reporters Friday.

He said Wild Eyes was in the Southern Ocean about 2,000 miles southwest of Perth, Australia, when rescuers contacted her Friday."
1184. IKE
Scientists: 40,000 barrels of oil leaking daily from the oil volcano....and that may be an underestimate still.

84,000,000 gallons have gone into the GOM since this started.
1186. kingy
Quoting IKE:
Scientists: 40,000 barrels of oil leaking daily from the oil volcano....and that may be an underestimate still.

84,000,000 gallons have gone into the GOM since this started.


which is seven or eight exxon valdeez disasters so far. And remember today they will release the flow rate data calculated AFTER the riser was cut. Some say there was a significant increase at that point, in contrast to BP's official estimate of a 20% increase after the riser was cut.

Remember that everyone is assuming that BP will get one thing right this year i.e. the relief well. Well lets suppose that doesn't work first time, or it gets delayed by hurricanes. Then we might be facing another few exxon valdeez spills.

Like I keep saying, most people don't know whats gonna hit them when this stuff starts washing up properly. A few tar balls right now will be replaced by tides of oil that will keep coming and will take years to make right, eventually this stuff will get washed all the way into the river mouths and thats when the real chaos starts.

Mornin' gang!

Ike, it really makes me mad that our government has been complicit in downsizing the leak rates. I foresee BP using the official government sanctioning of the 5000 per day rate to weasel out of liabilities.

1188. bjdsrq
Quoting hcubed:
Earlier posts mentioned the missing boater. According to CNN, she's alive and well.

"(CNN) -- Australian authorities on Friday made contact with a 16-year-old American girl who triggered a distress signal while attempting to sail solo around the world.

But it could be a day before a French fishing vessel pulls Abby Sunderland and her boat, Wild Eyes, to shore, the Australian Maritime Safety Authority said.

"She's in the boat. The boat's seaworthy. It's not taking on water, and she's equipped for the conditions down there, we believe," said Mick Kinley of the Australian Maritime Safety Authority.

Sunderland triggered the distress signal Thursday during rough seas.

"She's been dismasted. The rigging's over the side and in the water," Kinley told reporters Friday.

He said Wild Eyes was in the Southern Ocean about 2,000 miles southwest of Perth, Australia, when rescuers contacted her Friday."


Jail the parents.
Quoting kingy:


which is seven or eight exxon valdeez disasters so far. And remember today they will release the flow rate data calculated AFTER the riser was cut. Some say there was a significant increase at that point, in contrast to BP's official estimate of a 20% increase after the riser was cut.

Remember that everyone is assuming that BP will get one thing right this year i.e. the relief well. Well lets suppose that doesn't work first time, or it gets delayed by hurricanes. Then we might be facing another few exxon valdeez spills.

Like I keep saying, most people don't know whats gonna hit them when this stuff starts washing up properly. A few tar balls right now will be replaced by tides of oil that will keep coming and will take years to make right, eventually this stuff will get washed all the way into the river mouths and thats when the real chaos starts.



If memory serves the first relief well they drilled for the Ixtoc mess did not get the job done, it took several additional months and a second well to get it done.
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' gang!

Ike, it really makes me mad that our government has been complicit in downsizing the leak rates. I foresee BP using the official government sanctioning of the 5000 per day rate to weasel out of liabilities.


Morning to all, I agree with this. Now if they could only get it stopped so we can get it cleaned up.Running out of time till a cane comes thru the gulf.
1191. IKE
I see a wave heading toward the islands on the latest CMC and NOGAPS. The CMC is the model that had 91L slamming into SW FL. as a significant tropical system.

The NOGAPS seems to spin everything up lately and it hasn't come to pass.

I don't see much on the ECMWF through June 21st or the GFS through June 26th.

1192. MahFL
So if that girl is towed to shore does the solo attempt become invalid ? or does she get repairs and continue sailing solo ?
the season's first tropical cyclone could form as early as the middle next week. some of the models are hinting of a strong tropical distubance or even a depression forming near 35W Tthe system will move west through the CATL pass south or over Barbados and then through the central windwards towards the end of next week
1194. P451
Quoting StormW:


Great image.

What is going on with India?

1195. P451
BP ROV Cams

So that's it I guess. That was their great plan...cut off the riser, put a cap on there, and close the vents.

Well, what happened? Haven't found anything to tell me what went wrong and why.

Why didn't they just crimp the pipe when they had the chance?
1196. scott39
The upward motion pulse is forecasted going into the last week of june and into July. We will have multiple TCs to track in July!IMO
1197. P451
Not that we didn't already suspect this........


===

Researchers have doubled estimates of how much oil has been spewing from a ruptured well in the Gulf of Mexico, reporting Thursday that up to 40,000 barrels (1.7 million gallons) a day may have escaped for weeks.

===


And just like an iceberg 90% of this is under the surface.......but it's not just going to go away or sink to the bottom and decay. This stuff is going to end up everywhere.


I know some of you have given valid replies as to why my two BP early restitution plans cannot work. But I'm still throwing it out there.

)Drop the prices of your oil/gas in the states that have been hit by the disaster. This puts a few bucks back into the pockets of those who are losing their jobs over this.

)Hire those who lost their jobs, and at their known wages, to help clean up.


-----You would have thought by now there would have been some show of good faith here. Instead we get word of some plan to stop the gusher and then we watch it fail and they don't take time to even explain why or tell us what they will do next.

I'm 1500 miles away from this and it's irritating me. Although the way things are going it would appear one day this summer I'll hit the beach here in NJ and find oil sheen that was blown this way off of the Gulf Stream.

Hello

Here in Martinique, I keep an eye on the 8N 51W...
1199. IKE
Quoting P451:
BP ROV Cams

So that's it I guess. That was their great plan...cut off the riser, put a cap on there, and close the vents.

Well, what happened? Haven't found anything to tell me what went wrong and why.

Why didn't they just crimp the pipe when they had the chance?


I watched Anderson Cooper/AC360 last night and he was interviewing family members of the 11 workers who died.

BP management is pathetic in how they've treated these family members. Almost ignoring them. Where's your compassion?

I'm trying to think of an appropriate word to use to describe BP. Not the honest hard workers, but the big shots that act totally uncaring and have been nothing but liars through all of this. They take us to be fools.

I have little faith in a relief well being finished and working by August. I heard guesstimates a couple of weeks ago of it taking til December...that seems more likely to me.

Ninety-nine percent chance some of this massive oil volcano will be deposited along the northern GOM with a TS or hurricane.

One word I could come up with to describe the big-shots at BP....jerks!
1200. scott39
I dont understand why I still see people buying gas from BP!!
Good morning. Ike, still 0/0/0 but until when will the zeros continue? IMO, by late June or the first week of July,things will start to pop.
1202. P451
Quoting IKE:


I watched Anderson Cooper/AC360 last night and he was interviewing family members of the 11 workers who died.

BP management is pathetic in how they've treated these family members. Almost ignoring them. Where's your compassion?

I'm trying to think of an appropriate word to use to describe BP. Not the honest hard workers, but the big shots that act totally uncaring and have been nothing but liars through all of this. They take us to be fools.

I have little faith in a relief well being finished and working by August. I heard guesstimates a couple of weeks ago of it taking til December...that seems more likely to me.

Ninety-nine percent chance some of this massive oil volcano will be deposited along the northern GOM with a TS or hurricane.

One word I could come up with to describe the big-shots at BP....jerks!


Yep. It's really ridiculous. The silence is deafening.

I understand big business must go on and they must protect themselves during disasters but all the same these fools need to say something or do something along the lines of the ideas I threw out. Something. Anything. They're doing nothing as far as I can see. Nothing of real value.


...meanwhile, the numbers just keep getting worse.

===

The estimates are not nearly complete and different teams have come up with different numbers. A new team from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute came in with even higher estimates, ranging from 1 million gallons (3.8 million liters) a day to 2.1 million gallons (8 million liters). If the high end is true, that means nearly 107 million gallons (400 million liters) have spilled since April 20.

Even using other numbers that federal officials and scientists call a more reasonable range would have about 63 million gallons (238 million liters) spilling since the rig explosion. If that amount was put in gallon milk jugs, they would line up for nearly 5,500 miles (8,850 kilometers). That's the distance from the spill to London, where BP is headquartered, and then continuing on to Rome.

By comparison, the worst peacetime oil spill, 1979's Ixtoc 1 in Mexico, was about 140 million gallons (530 million liters) over 10 months. The Gulf spill hasn't yet reached two months. The Exxon Valdez, the previous worst U.S. oil spill, was just about 11 million gallons (41 million liters), and the new figures mean Deepwater Horizon is producing an Exxon Valdez size spill every five to 13 days.

===

What to believe I don't know but we've seen the footage and it is just what you said: An oil volcano.

This is a terrible mess of which will go on for years because of all that stuff lurking under the surface...of which is going to get pulled to shore one way or another - and even if it doesn't - it's just KILLING those waters.

As far as I can tell the Gulf is going to be dead waters for many years.

1203. IKE
Quoting scott39:
I dont understand why I still see people buying gas from BP!!


Same here. The comeback is...if you're buying it from so and so it's still BP. Yeah...that's probably true, but I'm not pulling into a BP station.


Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Ike, still 0/0/0 but until when will the zeros continue? IMO, by late June or the first week of July,things will start to pop.


Probably.

1204. IKE
As far as I can tell the Gulf is going to be dead waters for many years.

Pisses me off.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
1205. IKE
Few Tropical Waves in Atlantic Basin

Jun 11, 2010 7:30 AM


A tropical wave continues to push west through northwestern areas of Venezuela and northeastern areas of Columbia Friday, spreading heavy rain and gusty winds with it. The weak surface low associated with the system could push back into the open waters of the Caribbean later Friday into Friday night. There will be a small window of opportunity for some organization with light shear and warm sea surface water temperatures. However, this system has only a small amount of real estate to work with. Later Sunday, the low pressure will steer generally west toward Nicaragua and Central America.

Another tropical wave located in the central South Atlantic is showing signs of a low-level circulation. This system continues to lack deep thunderstorms around its core, and though it will be moving across water temperatures warm enough to support development, a hostile shear environment will inhibit organization.

The remainder of the Atlantic basin is mainly quiet with no areas of organization. Development is not expected with any other tropical waves through Tuesday.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Justin Povick
Ike, I feel you on the gulf problem. The gulf is what i do for a living. I run a shrimp plant.So far so good. we shrimp along the west coast of fl and texas.
hey guys surface maps (06Z)



1208. cg2916
Hey guys! I'll give a little tropical update:

GOM and Caribbean

Not much going on, and it appears as though our little AOI is starting to disapper. Maybe the TUTT is starting to pull back.



The Caribbean is pretty moist, while the GOM seems a bit dry:



Shear is high throughout the Caribbean and GOM right now, with shear up to 30 and 40 knots:



East Coast

Not much going on in the East Coast. There is a small area of showers north of Puerto Rico, though.



Air is moist in some areas, dry in others.



Shear isn't that high (see above shear map)

CATL and Africa

We have a couple of waves in the CATL, which are currently too south to develop, but they look like they may be going a bit NW. Shear will probably get the first one, though.



Dry air is only in a band from the Lesser Antilles to Africa, and a small tongue is between a wave and the Lesser Antilles.



Shear is very high in the north CATL, but not in the south CATL (see above shear map).

And of course, the wave everyone's talking about. It looks a little ragged, but that is because it has to get used to water.



Dry air and shear may be a problem with this wave (see above maps), but mainly, we'll just have to wait and see.
1209. IKE
Quoting severstorm:
Ike, I feel you on the gulf problem. The gulf is what i do for a living. I run a shrimp plant.So far so good. we shrimp along the west coast of fl and texas.


Hope you're not affected.
Whoa, 95-100 today in the tampa area. Record is 97.
Quoting IKE:


Hope you're not affected.

Not yet!!!!! Fingers are crossed
1213. scott39
Can sea life in the GOM sense that the oil spill is bad for them and swim away from it? Im not talking about all of them, all of the time. Im just hoping they have some kind of instinct.
1214. cg2916
Quoting DestinJeff:


you just know this is coming ...

"This wave looks very impressive for June. IMO it is the one to watch for possible development."


Holy crap! Will that be a wave or a typhoon?
1215. cg2916
Quoting scott39:
Can sea life in the GOM sense that the oil spill is bad for them and swim away from it? Im not talking about all of them, all of the time. Im just hoping they have some kind of instinct.


Well, turtles have yet to find out that plastic bags aren't jellyfish.
Quoting severstorm:
Ike, I feel you on the gulf problem. The gulf is what i do for a living. I run a shrimp plant.So far so good. we shrimp along the west coast of fl and texas.


Hey buddy! Good Morning! Shrimping what a fun job. My grandad and I love used to go out all the time in May and catch shrimp in the Indian River (Mosquito Lagoon area).
1217. P451
Quoting cg2916:


Holy crap! Will that be a wave or a typhoon?


It will be a BastardiCane.

I think we need to evacuate Manhattan!

:D


1218. IKE



Quoting severstorm:
Whoa, 95-100 today in the tampa area. Record is 97.


Humidity will be back today and maybe a thunderstorm this afternoon but more likely this weekend and very likely all next week as next week looks quite stormy across the C FL penisula. A front is expected to stall across N FL adding energy to the atmosphere.
1220. scott39
Quoting IKE:
What does that map forecast?
Quoting IKE:
As far as I can tell the Gulf is going to be dead waters for many years.

Pisses me off.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS



I live 1 block from the beach, we have a feeling by the end of Sept, the EPA will be telling us we have to move..so I'm joining your "I'm pissed off" club
Good morning folks.

Just a quick stop in for the morning. Conditions in the Caribbean remain hostile for any type of development with a potent ULL parked over Eastern Cuba/Jamaica pushing strong Westerly winds to the East

The ULL does not seem to be in any hurry to get out of the way so the next 24 hours will likely be just hit and miss showers in the region.

Back later.
1224. IKE
Quoting scott39:
What does that map forecast?


MJO is turning to downward in the Atlantic until end of June/July.
1225. cg2916
Quoting IKE:






Looks like MJO won't be upward until Mid-Late July.
1226. IKE
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:



I live 1 block from the beach, we have a feeling by the end of Sept, the EPA will be telling us we have to move..so I'm joining your "I'm pissed off" club


I wouldn't be shocked if that doesn't happen to some...not necessarily saying you.

BP...epic failure.
Government...poor job of making sure this couldn't have happened.
1227. scott39
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:



I live 1 block from the beach, we have a feeling by the end of Sept, the EPA will be telling us we have to move..so I'm joining your "I'm pissed off" club
Your probably right, We all are pissed off now ,but just wait until there is oil glisting over our backyards, and personal properties, buisnesses and our way of life on the Gulf Coast is destroyed! Where is BP going to be then? LONG GONE!!
Quoting IKE:


I wouldn't be shocked if that doesn't happen to some...not necessarily saying you.

BP...epic failure.
Government...poor job of making sure this couldn't have happened.


I saw a report on Fox news that some Mayors along the Centrel Gulf Coast are worried that whole coastal towns will empty if this oil spill doesn't get fixed soon as many families are now out of work.
Quoting cg2916:



Looks like MJO won't be upward until Mid-Late July.
That graph is off, imo.

Better use this one:



Be back in a bit.
Quoting IKE:


I wouldn't be shocked if that doesn't happen to some...not necessarily saying you.

BP...epic failure.
Government...poor job of making sure this couldn't have happened.


right, I agree with you, but if I have to move because oil is on HWY 90, then that means the casinos would be forced to close.....this is worse than waiting for a hurricane to hit

BP lies, no one knows how much oil is gushing out daily. No one knows how much oil is out there in the Gulf. No one knows when the gushing will stop. No one knows how to stop the spreading of the oil. No one knows how to clean the oil up. No one knows when the oil will be cleaned up.

but no oil on the Mississippi beaches or barrier islands yet, lots of dead turtles and fish but no oil.....YET
1234. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
I think with all the factors that are considered in forecasting seasonal activity, that shear rules the roost.

Boiling SSTs, ENSO consition, MDO cycle, MJO pulse, minimal SAL, etc .. mean nothing with hostile shear.


I agree.
I hope the shrimping stays good, and the scare just boosts your prices nicely. At least that way you get a bonanza now before the actual damage is apparent.
While I'm hoping, I'll add that the fish stocks in the prohibited fishing zone are less damaged by the oil than anticipated and actually benefit from the season off. Animals that cross the surface are getting smacked but if the O2 levels from the Georgia depth records look good I'll keep my fingers crossed for the fish.

Today is going to be a roaster for central Florida.97
when the wind shear moves out which I belive is very soon (I feel- maybe about mid-late Saturday) we could be seeing development in the SW Caribbean and/or E Atlantic
1238. IKE
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


right, I agree with you, but if I have to move because oil is on HWY 90, then that means the casinos would be forced to close.....this is worse than waiting for a hurricane to hit

BP lies, no one knows how much oil is gushing out daily. No one knows how much oil is out there in the Gulf. No one knows when the gushing will stop. No one knows how to stop the spreading of the oil. No one knows how to clean the oil up. No one knows when the oil will be cleaned up.

but no oil on the Mississippi beaches or barrier islands yet, lots of dead turtles and fish but no oil.....YET


Most important word....YET.

This is like someone being told they have terminal cancer and watching them die over a period of months/years. Watching them suffer and dry up.

And then throw in an above average chance of a hurricane.

I don't see anyone that has an answer for this. It's going to continue to get worse.

Morning everyone!
P.S. Cartographic bone to pick with the SST graphic shown above. The legend does not include the full spectrum of colors shown on the map. The legend goes from violet to orange, but the map shows red above Iceland and at the great lakes. Source links to NOAA show a legend from black through to red.
What will those SSTs will do to the Arctic Ice Cap low in 2010? The trend is already low for this time of year.
1241. calder
re: abby sutherland's world record attempt - it was made void when she stopped in cape town for repairs on her yacht, she just decided to carry on anyway. Glad she's ok
1243. IKE
Good morning everybody.

Here's a sad article that says most of the oil-soaked birds should be euthanized instead of cleaned because they'll die either way. Very sad.

Link
1245. scott39
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


right, I agree with you, but if I have to move because oil is on HWY 90, then that means the casinos would be forced to close.....this is worse than waiting for a hurricane to hit

BP lies, no one knows how much oil is gushing out daily. No one knows how much oil is out there in the Gulf. No one knows when the gushing will stop. No one knows how to stop the spreading of the oil. No one knows how to clean the oil up. No one knows when the oil will be cleaned up.

but no oil on the Mississippi beaches or barrier islands yet, lots of dead turtles and fish but no oil.....YET
Why cant congress and the senate vote into law next week this penalty? Ok BP,here is the deal, Everyday from here on out that you dont fix this problem, you will be fined a 100 million dollars a day! They make 67million dollars a day in profit, so they can afford it until they find a solution. This would definetly light a fire up under their ass to use every resourse and smart person out there who DOES KNOW HOW TO FIX THIS! Also the 100 million dollars a day would go to cleaning up this mess after it is stopped and to the residents of the gulf coast who are affected! Once again there are people who know how to fix this! It always goes back to money!!!! Now you know if a little peon like me can think of this, surely BP and our Government have! Its going to take a growing organizing mass of Gulf Coast Residents and the rest of the world to demand results now! No excuses!!
Quoting severstorm:
Whoa, 95-100 today in the tampa area. Record is 97.


Tampa has never reached the 100 degree mark.
1247. cg2916
Quoting IKE:


Dang, the wave isn't taking water too well.
I have a friend who has a brother that works for BP. He worked on a rig in the Gulf of Mexico, but due to the ban on drilling, BP is sending him to drill off the coast of Africa. His whole family is moving to Europe next week on BP's dime.
1249. cg2916
Quoting CaneWarning:
I have a friend who has a brother that works for BP. He worked on a rig in the Gulf of Mexico, but due to the ban on drilling, BP is sending him to drill off the coast of Africa. His whole family is moving to Europe next week on BP's dime.


No, Obama just lifted the ban,
Quoting cg2916:


No, Obama just lifted the ban,


Did he? Well that's interesting because they leave for Europe tomorrow!
Quoting cg2916:


No, Obama just lifted the ban,
Really? Hadn't heard that...do you have a source?
1254. scott39
Who or what is putting accoutability and pressure on BP to fix this? No One and Nothing!!
The wave near SA looks like a TD, just looks like one, not saying it is.
I think BP will file for bankruptcy to be honest.
1257. cg2916
Quoting StormW:
Good morning to all, hot off the press!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS FRIDAY, JUNE 11, 2010 ISSUED 8:45 A.M.


Love it!

Now, what chances do you give for development of the wave that just came off of Africa *grabs pencil and notepad*?
Quoting CaneWarning:


Tampa has never reached the 100 degree mark.


Today will be close expecting 95 to 96 in Orlando today with low to mid 70 dewpoints. We should see thunderstorms this afternoon as a result.
1261. cg2916
Quoting CaneWarning:


Did he? Well that's interesting because they leave for Europe tomorrow!
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Really? Hadn't heard that...do you have a source?


Actually, I heard it somewhere, but I can't find it on the Internet. Sorry guys.
Here's an interesting page to follow, the American Association of Poison Control Centers is monitoring the gulf oil spill and health consequences.

Link
1266. cg2916
Quoting StormW:


Right now, 10% or less.



Yeah, I think shear might be too strong.
1269. scott39
Who or what is putting pressure on our government to make BP accountable? We are the who and the power of right to assemble and threaten jobs in congress and the senate is the what! If your waiting around for BP and the governmrnt to fix this without real pressure from us, Think again!
I see a spin in the wave south of 10N, near 55W.. Also has convection, it's eye fooling, it really looks like a TD. Anyone care to explain why the NHC is ignoring this? I know it's landbound and if it heads north, it gets sheared.. but this is currently an interesting feature.
Quoting DestinJeff:


can't even remember where/when I heard it ... also can't source it right now. maybe just a rumor, but I know I heard it from news source not a person.
Thanks Jeff. Talked with a friend last night who works offshore and he's not sure what his future holds. Hopefully, it's true and he and his family can stay rather than move for work...
1272. MahFL
The ban on shallow drilling was removed quietly 2 weeks ago. The deep water ban is still in place for NEW applications, those already authorised, I think, can procede with strict Gov inspections.
1273. gator23
Quoting CaneWarning:
I think BP will file for bankruptcy to be honest.

as noted before, they cant, their shareholders would have to hold a vote and agree which they wont because they still earn 65 million a month. Then a US judge would have to grant them a chapter 11 which no judge would. Filing for bankruptcy is not that easy.
1275. IKE
Five years ago today she was making landfall. The B storm in 2005, Bret, started on June 28th.




Great flag to fly today, All Clear.
1277. scott39
Quoting MahFL:
The ban on shallow drilling was removed quietly 2 weeks ago. The deep water ban is still in place for NEW applications, those already authorised, I think, can procede with strict Gov inspections.
They need to quit drilling in water period! Theres enough oil under N Dakota to last for 200 years! Yea you still have enviromental risks on land, but its alot easier to stop a gusher! I Wonder how the Radical enviroMENTALists feel now about getting drilling for oil pushed out so deep in the GOM, and the disaster it caused for generations?
1278. aquak9
1274

oh I needed that laugh
Quoting gator23:

as noted before, they cant, their shareholders would have to hold a vote and agree which they wont because they still earn 65 million a month. Then a US judge would have to grant them a chapter 11 which no judge would. Filing for bankruptcy is not that easy.


Hi,
I think BP is a british company. I have no idea what the laws would be over there.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Here is a friendly visual to help see where the TUTT is that is causing all the shear in the Carribbean ...
Actually what is causing the strong westerly shear in the Caribbean is the presence of a ULL aloft between the Cuba and Jamiaca region. It can be viewed by 200 MB vorticity:

that wave at 8 degrees is just to far south it will run into s america and will be destroyed ..the strong westerly shear in the caribbean will keep anything developing until at least until after mid july..we will see what happens then..no la nina developing thats for sure at leat not right now..its going to be a very slow hurricane season to get started..it looks like we are going to have to see what the cape verde season does..this year IMO reminds me of 2006...
Quoting sleetman1:
that wave at 8 degrees is just to far south it will run into s america and will be destroyed ..the strong westerly shear in the caribbean will keep anything developing until at least until after mid july..we will see what happens then..no la nina developing thats for sure at leat not right now..its going to be a very slow hurricane season to get started..it looks like we are going to have to see what the cape verde season does..this year IMO reminds me of 2006...


MJO returns later this month, so mid-July is most likely later than when it actually will start. Plus what do you think those colder SST anomalies along the equator in the EPAC are a sign of? La Nina.
Quoting gator23:

as noted before, they cant, their shareholders would have to hold a vote and agree which they wont because they still earn 65 million a month. Then a US judge would have to grant them a chapter 11 which no judge would. Filing for bankruptcy is not that easy.


I wouldn't be so sure of that. Bankruptcy is a fairly easy process, even for large companies.
Quoting MissNadia:


Hi,
I think BP is a british company. I have no idea what the laws would be over there.


BP is not just a British company. They are traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Only 40% of the stocks are owned by British, and none by the British Government. Their head office is in London.


Percentage of shares in issue
Range of holdings Institutions Individuals Total
By principal area
UK 33 7 40%
US 25 14 39%
Rest of Europe 10 - 10
Rest of World 7 - 7
Miscellaneousc 4 - 4
79 21 100
Quoting sleetman1:
that wave at 8 degrees is just to far south it will run into s america and will be destroyed ..the strong westerly shear in the caribbean will keep anything developing until at least until after mid july..we will see what happens then..no la nina developing thats for sure at leat not right now..its going to be a very slow hurricane season to get started..it looks like we are going to have to see what the cape verde season does..this year IMO reminds me of 2006...
There are a few things I need to correct you on, and they are:

1. Tropical waves don't get "destroyed" they just lose their convection, their energy is still in tact and that's all you need for a system to develop, you also need favorable conditions. And that brings me to number 2.

2. The westerly shear in the Caribbean should begin to die down as the TUTT lifts and a ULL aloft between Haiti and Cuba lifts. This should happen in less than 7 days, not 30 days.

3. Currently we are under neutral conditions and are forecasted by about 99.99% of models to enter into a weak to moderate La Nina. One thing that is causing unfavorable conditions is the lingering effects of the El Nino, this is due to the rapid turnaround in conditions in just 3 months.

4. It's still June and when looking at climatoligy, the only system to develop in the CATL was in 1979. We currently only look in the Caribbean and GOM for development, not the African coast. Now, I'm not saying that an African wave can't develop in June, it just doesn't seem likely.
we are going into La nina and La nina is developing but maybe shear is slow to respond to the change and it is kinda normal for this time of the season
no i just think thats the sign of a neutral season.i think la nina could develop but not until september well into the hurricane season..extreme we are just going to have to see how things play out..no need to get the whole GOM and EAST COAST excited...its not the first time this is happened..IMO i just think the strong westerly shear in the caribbean will continue for quite a while..the sst are there but as long as the shear persists we are in the clear..
Shear levels are actually pretty close to average for this time of year across the basin, and even below average in areas.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
we are going into La nina and La nina is developing but maybe shear is slow to respond to the change and it is kinda normal for this time of the season
Yeah. We had an El Nino and it literally disappeard in 3 months, the lingering effects of El Nino are still there.
Quoting extreme236:
Shear levels are actually pretty close to average for this time of year across the basin, and even below average in areas.
Exactly. I don't know what "sleetman1" is talking about.
Quoting PcolaDan:


BP is not just a British company. They are traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Only 40% of the stocks are owned by British, and none by the British Government. Their head office is in London.


Percentage of shares in issue
Range of holdings Institutions Individuals Total
By principal area
UK 33 7 40%
US 25 14 39%
Rest of Europe 10 - 10
Rest of World 7 - 7
Miscellaneousc 4 - 4
79 21 100


Foreign companies trade on the NYSE. The BP ADR trades on the NYSE. BP trades on the London Stock Exchange separately. In fact, in London the price of BP is almost 400.
The TUTT over the Caribbean should inhibit any development in the near term.
i agree miami hurricane el nino is still there and thats why the strong shear is continuing over the caribbean..until that changes the waves will develop so far south and keep going into s america..GOM is clear for quite a while..i just refer you back to 2006 very close to the same conditions..we will just have to wait and see...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There are a few things I need to correct you on, and they are:

1. Tropical waves don't get "destroyed" they just lose their convection, their energy is still in tact and that's all you need for a system to develop, you also need favorable conditions. And that brings me to number 2.

2. The westerly shear in the Caribbean should begin to die down as the TUTT lifts and a ULL aloft between Haiti and Cuba lifts. This should happen in less than 7 days, not 30 days.

3. Currently we are under neutral conditions and are forecasted by about 99.99% of models to enter into a weak to moderate La Nina. One thing that is causing unfavorable conditions is the lingering effects of the El Nino, this is due to the rapid turnaround in conditions in just 3 months.

4. It's still June and when looking at climatoligy, the only system to develop in the CATL was in 1979. We currently only look in the Caribbean and GOM for development, not the African coast. Now, I'm not saying that an African wave can't develop in June, it just doesn't seem likely.


Miami,

Isn't the TUTT a permanent feature but is simple shifts its position back and forth in the Western Atlantic?
Quoting CaneWarning:


Foreign companies trade on the NYSE. The BP ADR trades on the NYSE. BP trades on the London Stock Exchange separately. In fact, in London the price of BP is almost 400.


BP shares on the NYSE fell to a 13 year low on Wednesday, but have rallied about 15% since then.
Quoting sleetman1:
i agree miami hurricane el nino is still there and thats why the strong shear is continuing over the caribbean..until that changes the waves will develop so far south and keep going into s america..GOM is clear for quite a while..i just refer you back to 2006 very close to the same conditions..we will just have to wait and see...


No, 2006 had an El Nino that developed for the season. This season has one that is going away, with a developing La Nina. Two completely different things. The low latitude waves aren't unusually either. Those will naturally emerge at higher latitudes later in the season.
Quoting extreme236:


BP shares on the NYSE fell to a 13 year low on Wednesday, but have rallied about 15% since then.


Yeah, it went all the way to $29 and is now about $33.75. I still wouldn't want to own the stock right now.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Exactly. I don't know what "sleetman1" is talking about.


Does any of us?

Really does he realize that Neutral conditions don't exactly mean we will see less storms than if we go into La Nina? In fact you saw the table Dr M had in his last blog; Neutral seasons on average are more active than La Nina seasons
sleetman1 what in the world is wrong with you can't you see that we all have you out numbered in the idea that we are in a LOW NEUTRAL JUST A TAD TO GO BEFORE BEING WEAK LA NINA AND DEVELOPING BECOMING WEAK TO MODERATE LA NINA AND THE SHEAR IS VERY MUCH NORMAL AND IN SOME PARTS BELOW THAT AND IT IT MORE THAT LIKELY TO LEAVE US MAYBE BEFORE SUNDAY AND AT THE MOST BY WEDNESDAY
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Miami,

Isn't the TUTT a permanent feature but is simple shifts its position back and forth in the Western Atlantic?
I believe so. What I meant is that it should shift towards the north and possibly allow for development. I'm not sure if it's a permanent feature, may be semi-permanent.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Actually what is causing the strong westerly shear in the Caribbean is the presence of a ULL aloft between the Cuba and Jamiaca region. It can be viewed by 200 MB vorticity:






TUTT low!!!!
like i said extreme im not disagreeing with you this will happen later in the season but from now until the middle to late part of july we are going to have these conditions..IMO..
Quoting sleetman1:
i agree miami hurricane el nino is still there and thats why the strong shear is continuing over the caribbean..until that changes the waves will develop so far south and keep going into s america..GOM is clear for quite a while..i just refer you back to 2006 very close to the same conditions..we will just have to wait and see...


conditions in 2006 were nowhere near what they are this season. In 2006 we had an pretty strong El Nino shut down most of the season. Right now we are in Neutral conditions; heading into La Nina

El Nino is dead and gone and has been for a few weeks. The turnaround from El Nino to La Nina has been so quick that the atmosphere hasn't caught up just yet, but it will soon.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Foreign companies trade on the NYSE. The BP ADR trades on the NYSE. BP trades on the London Stock Exchange separately. In fact, in London the price of BP is almost 400.



American Depositary Receipt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
An American Depositary Receipt (abbreviated ADR) represents ownership in the shares of a non-U.S. company that trades in U.S. financial markets. ...
Quoting sleetman1:
like i said extreme im not disagreeing with you this will happen later in the season but from now until the middle to late part of july we are going to have these conditions..IMO..


Whatever...not going to get anywhere arguing with you. Your not going to change your mind. But I guess we'll just have to see what happens.
Quoting sleetman1:
i agree miami hurricane el nino is still there and thats why the strong shear is continuing over the caribbean..until that changes the waves will develop so far south and keep going into s america..GOM is clear for quite a while..i just refer you back to 2006 very close to the same conditions..we will just have to wait and see...
That's not what I meant. I'm sure that there are some lingering effects of the El Nino but they are not causing the westerly shear in the Caribbean. I already said before, what is causing the shear is the ULL over Jamaica and the TUTT, not the lingering effects of the El Nino.
Quoting extreme236:


Whatever...not going to get anywhere arguing with you. Your not going to change your mind. But I guess we'll just have to see what happens.
Agreed.
wunderkid like i said its my opinion we will just have to see how it plays out..if la nina does develop it will not do damage this hurricane season it will be near the end...im still looking at and average season at best..but it only takes one to hit your area to miss your vacation..so just stay on your toes..
Quoting MissNadia:



American Depositary Receipt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
An American Depositary Receipt (abbreviated ADR) represents ownership in the shares of a non-U.S. company that trades in U.S. financial markets. ...


You got it!
Quoting sleetman1:
wunderkid like i said its my opinion we will just have to see how it plays out..if la nina does develop it will not do damage this hurricane season it will be near the end...im still looking at and average season at best..but it only takes one to hit your area to miss your vacation..so just stay on your toes..


based on what exactly? There is no evidence of an average season. Sorry it just isn't there

Way to downcast without having any sort of facts to back up your claim
TUTT is semi-perminent and is actually a bit further west than usual,its axis is usually runs SW to NE thru the north and central carib basin it oscillates usually from the SE to the North or NW it also can weaken and or spawn a TC as well...check out med.edu,google they have a good explantion of it and its a awsome website for learning about WX; ......
Quoting stillwaiting:
TUTT is semi-perminent and is actually a bit further west than usual,its axis is usually runs SW to NE thru the north and central carib basin it oscillates usually from the SE to the North or NW it also can weaken and or spawn a TC as well...check out med.edu,google they have a good explantion of it and its a awsome website for learning about WX; ......
That's what I thought.


Not much happpening as the Panama blob faded will come back and fade again as i have been saying! We do have a strong Sub-Tropical Blob that is trying to form in the NW Atlantic moving out to sea. It is getting stronger. I see nothing else of concern thru the weekend.

One thing to watch! Let's see if the Wave that came through the Islands gets some extra energy from the Columbian Low which could spark something very quickly although Shear is very high caused by a TUTT, which sometimes helps developing systems but, won't help systems that are not developing.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


based on what exactly? There is no evidence of an average season. Sorry it just isn't there

Way to downcast without having any sort of facts to back up your claim
He's not going to change his mind, just don't argue with him.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Not much happpening as the Panama blob faded will come back and fade again as i have been saying! We do have a strong Sub-Tropical Blob that is trying to form in the NW Atlantic moving out to sea. It is getting stronger. I see nothing else of concern thru the weekend.
Just a few waves to monitor none of which that should develop in the short-term, other than that I don't expect development in the next 48 hours.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
He's not going to change his mind, just don't argue with him.

Wise words.
hurricane 101 the azore bermuda high hasnt even set up shop yet ..we have to see what type of african dust is prevelant this year not to mention the shear..IMO the hurricane season depends on just where the azore bermuda high sets up..we could have 25 storms but if they are all fish storms and the us doesnt get hit then what harm is done..i look at lots of factors during the hurricane season and IMO they wont be in place until mid july..we will all know then if the us will be affected by a storm...just have to wait and see..i dont disagree with any of you just giving my own opinion..isnt what this room is all about..stop the name calling leave it for the kids we are all grown ups on here lets just see what happens..
1322. scott39
Is the shear normal for this time of year?
1323. IKE
I think with a downward MJO...climatology....taking the atmosphere a while to adjust to the changes, that June could wind up 0-0-0.

I predicted a named storm in the GOM by July 1st. Maybe a weak to moderate TS. I could eat crow on that prediction.

Things will start to get going early to mid-July as the MJO comes back(assuming it does), then become active for Aug...through early October. But you could say that about any season.

I'm sticking with 13-7-4 as my totals. I made them 3-4 months ago. Everything needs to stay out of the GOM, or the story of the year(oil), may get much worse.

i will tell you this there will be increase activity on the pacific side due to a el nino still being present...you will see this in the coming weeks..IMO we still have a weak elnino holding on ...
1326. scott39
Quoting IKE:
I think with a downward MJO...climatology....taking the atmosphere a while to adjust to the changes, that June could wind up 0-0-0.

I predicted a named storm in the GOM by July 1st. Maybe a weak to moderate TS. I could eat crow on that prediction.

Things will start to get going early to mid-July as the MJO comes back(assuming it does), then become active for Aug...through early October. But you could say that about any season.

I'm sticking with 13-7-4 as my totals. I made them 3-4 months ago. Everything needs to stay out of the GOM, or the story of the year(oil), may get much worse.

We all better hope for a miracle of a slow season.
Quoting DestinJeff:
First I have heard a new cap being put on the oilgasm. From CNN


They are going to fit a new cap on. This one will allow them to disconnect from the pipe in the event of a hurricane. The connection point is 300 ft below the surface.
To many who use this blog, it is largely academic whether a Hurricane Season is forecast to be Low, Average or Active.
It only takes one "hard hit" to make even a Season forecast as "Low" into a very intense Season.
Regardless of the Season's Forecast, everyone in the potential "target area" should adopt the adage - "Plan for the Worst - Hope for the Best".

1329. hydrus
Quoting scott39:
We all better hope for a miracle of a slow season.
Amen to that.
Quoting Orcasystems:


They are going to fit a new cap on. This one will allow them to disconnect from the pipe in the event of a hurricane. The connection point is 300 ft below the surface.


I hope this works so that the CEO can "get his life back". It pains me that his life has been disrupted by a little oil spill.

(This is sarcasm, just in case some don't get it.)
1331. scott39
Im not taking any sides here because i dont understand most of this yet. If there isnt any ElNino hardly left, why is there so much wind shear?
But there could be development between 48-120H

I am expecting something to come out of the SW Caribbean and E Atlantic between the time that I stated above
1333. hydrus
Quoting SSideBrac:
To many who use this blog, it is largely academic whether a Hurricane Season is forecast to be Low, Average or Active.
It only takes one "hard hit" to make even a Season forecast as "Low" into a very intense Season.
Regardless of the Season's Forecast, everyone in the potential "target area" should adopt the adage - "Plan for the Worst - Hope for the Best".

Yep. If there were only 5 hurricanes this year and three hit land, that makes a really bad year. The victims will not care if it was a below average year statistically.
Kermit is flying over the current eddy today..map here.
yes wunderkid its very possible on the pacific side..not in the caribbean IMO
Good morning everyone! I am an LSU student studying meteorology and oceanography. I doubt any of yall remember me from last year. I had a different screen name (robbieNDBC) because at the time I was interning at the National Data Buoy Center. However, that screen name was tied to my @noaa.gov e-mail account so I can no longer log in here.

So I created a new name and just thought I'd say hey! Also, special thanks to Dr. Masters, Levi32, weather456, and stormW. I learn a lot from yall and enjoy reading your take on everything.
El Nino is officially dead

StormW just showed you a pic that basically says La Nina is here

and yet you still keep saying El Nino will cause an increase in EPAC storms and a delay in the Atlantic season?
I have a suggestion to the Developers of this blog. PLEASE where the Avatar Pic is, if you could put the date as too the membership time just below the Pic Avatar, that would be an awsome thing to have to stop a lot of fighting and confussion. JUST MY OPINION!
Hey everyone!
Please WUmail or post on my WU blog your detailed personal accounts of weather events (hurricanes, tornadoes, winter weather, etc.) along with any images you might like to include. I will be putting these stories on my weather site under the "Your Stories" section. I'm sure there are many here who have some intense weather stories to relate. Thanks!
Quoting CaneWarning:


I hope this works so that the CEO can "get his life back". It pains me that his life has been disrupted by a little oil spill.

(This is sarcasm, just in case some don't get it.)


I think if people keep trashing BP, and making demands on it... like paying the wages of laid off rig workers (due to Government new rules)... then BP is going to do the logical legal thing.

Pay their 75 Million penalty as laid out in your laws... and say.. sue us for the rest..it would take years to get any money.

1342. keiser
I Heard about the 2010 Hurricane season and your predicitions and the same as the rest. I hope to god it is not going to be avtive like 1996 Cause if it does people on the coastlines and in the carribean are going to be in trouble where I live we have a 50% of getting hit by a major hurricane, where my uncle lives he has a 51% chance of a major hurricane, Entire US coastline: 76%. I am really keeping my eye on the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The most active months are: July through September.
They found Sutherland alive out in the Indian Ocean, smacked around by 30'waves. Mast broke, dream of the record over but atleast the 16 year old girl is okay:)

Hey Robbie, good to see you back..
HURRICANES 101 lets just see what happens in a week conditions on the pacific side are ripe for development now ...so we will see..im not disagreeing with storm w its IMO the weak el nino is still out there..i have my own reasons why i think so..its just my opinion..
Quoting scott39:
Im not taking any sides here because i dont understand most of this yet. If there isnt any ElNino hardly left, why is there so much wind shear?
Because the TUTT is digging into the Caribbean and there is also an ULL over Cuba/Haiti/Jamaica causing hostile conditions. Once the TUTT lifts (could take up to 10 days) and the ULL moves to the north (should take less than 3 days), the Caribbean should be a hot spot for development.
1346. scott39
Could somebody please tell me what is causing the current strong wind shear? When is it expected to decrease?
Quoting RobbieLSU:
Good morning everyone! I am an LSU student studying meteorology and oceanography. I doubt any of yall remember me from last year. I had a different screen name (robbieNDBC) because at the time I was interning at the National Data Buoy Center. However, that screen name was tied to my @noaa.gov e-mail account so I can no longer log in here.

So I created a new name and just thought I'd say hey! Also, special thanks to Dr. Masters, Levi32, weather456, and stormW. I learn a lot from yall and enjoy reading your take on everything.

Hey there!
Where is Weather456?
1349. hydrus
Quoting StormW:


IF?

This is the fastest ENSO switch I can remember. I know that it is not uncommon for a La nina to form right after an El Nino winter.
Quoting keiser:
I Heard about the 2010 Hurricane season and yourr predicitions and the same as the rest. I hope to god it is not going to beavtive like 1996 Cause if it does people on the coastlines and in the carribean are going to be in trouble where I live we have a 50% of getting hit by a major hurricane, where my uncle lives he has a 51% chance of a major hurricane, Entire US coastline: 76%. I am really keeping my eye on the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The most active months are: July through September.
I would say that August, September, and October are the most active (based on climatology). The GOM, Caribbean, and U.S eastern coast are at the highest risk this year.
Quoting scott39:
Could somebody please tell me what is causing the current strong wind shear? When is it expected to decrease?
I've said it about 6 times, lol, look at post 1345.
Quoting scott39:
Could somebody please tell me what is causing the current strong wind shear? When is it expected to decrease?

June caused it. June is expected to end at, or about, the end of June.
(in case you needed another answer.)
Quoting sleetman1:
HURRICANES 101 lets just see what happens in a week conditions on the pacific side are ripe for development now ...so we will see..im not disagreeing with storm w its IMO the weak el nino is still out there..i have my own reasons why i think so..its just my opinion..


Ok well I think what you are mistaking for El Nino still being there may just be some lingering effects from El Nino due to how quickly we are going from El Nino to La Nina. I do think maybe the atmosphere is lagging a bit behind, but El Nino itself was declared dead a few weeks back.
Quoting hydrus:
This is the fastest ENSO switch I can remember. I know that it is not uncommon for a La nina to form right after an El Nino winter.
Yeah that's what I was saying. I'm sure that there are some lingering effects from the El Nino, but the current high wind shear in the Caribbean isn't one of them.
Quoting IKE:
I think with a downward MJO...climatology....taking the atmosphere a while to adjust to the changes, that June could wind up 0-0-0.

I predicted a named storm in the GOM by July 1st. Maybe a weak to moderate TS. I could eat crow on that prediction.

Things will start to get going early to mid-July as the MJO comes back(assuming it does), then become active for Aug...through early October. But you could say that about any season.

I'm sticking with 13-7-4 as my totals. I made them 3-4 months ago. Everything needs to stay out of the GOM, or the story of the year(oil), may get much worse.



I just think it is great that there is no tropical activity out there right now, hopefully those involved in the oil spill will look at it as a gift to work harder to fix the oil spill as best as possible before the season really starts. It is just borrowed time.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Ok well I think what you are mistaking for El Nino still being there may just be some lingering effects from El Nino due to how quickly we are going from El Nino to La Nina. I do think maybe the atmosphere is lagging a bit behind, but El Nino itself was declared dead a few weeks back.
Exactly!
1357. hydrus
Quoting Skyepony:
They found Sutherland alive out in the Indian Ocean, smacked around by 30'waves. Mast broke, dream of the record over but atleast the 16 year old girl is okay:)

Hey Robbie, good to see you back..
some good news for a change, thank you for posting it.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I think if people keep trashing BP, and making demands on it... like paying the wages of laid off rig workers (due to Government new rules)... then BP is going to do the logical legal thing.

Pay their 75 Million penalty as laid out in your laws... and say.. sue us for the rest..it would take years to get any money.



Doesn't work that way. Besides the fact that they're likely to be placed under criminal law due to negligence. Especially if sat phone records show that the reported "Are you happy?" conversation actually occured.

Further, BP chose to waive the liability limits. They cannot simply take their own legal statement back.

Quoting Skyepony:


Hey Robbie, good to see you back..

Quoting hydrus (1357):
some good news for a change, thank you for posting it.


You're too kind!
Quoting sporteguy03:


I just think it is great that there is no tropical activity out there right now, hopefully those involved in the oil spill will look at it as a gift to work harder to fix the oil spill as best as possible before the season really starts. It is just borrowed time.
I agree. I don't think we will see much activity in the GOM until July. June should be good for those workers down there.
I also think that when people see how high the numbers are being predicted for this season, they assume the season should have already had a storm and that just isn't always the case.

We could have our 1st named storm in May and only end up with 9 storms

We may not have our 1st named until late July and end up with 18 storms.

There are examples of both, June has very little to do with the overall activity in a season.
1362. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I've said it about 6 times, lol, look at post 1345.
Thanks, Thats how long it takes me to learn something and thats on a good day.LOL How long will the pattern of all clear of the shear last for, when it starts? It will only take 4 times i promise.
1363. hydrus
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah that's what I was saying. I'm sure that there are some lingering effects from the El Nino, but the current high wind shear in the Caribbean isn't one of them.
TUTT is usually around whether it is an active year or not.
Quoting scott39:
Thanks, Thats how long it takes me to learn something and thats on a good day.LOL How long will the pattern of all clear of the shear last for, when it starts? It will only take 4 times i promise.
LOL. This graph below should help you out, remember red and orange indicated favorable conditions.



GFS 72 Hour Shear Forecast
Quoting errantlythought:


Doesn't work that way. Besides the fact that they're likely to be placed under criminal law due to negligence. Especially if sat phone records show that the reported "Are you happy?" conversation actually occured.

Further, BP chose to waive the liability limits. They cannot simply take their own legal statement back.


Two word response: Bhopal disaster
Quoting hydrus:
TUTT is usually around whether it is an active year or not.
True. It's a semi-permanent feature.
1367. scott39
Quoting atmoaggie:

June caused it. June is expected to end at, or about, the end of June.
(in case you needed another answer.)
Thats what im talkin about LAYMAN terms for weather dummies like me. Although i still do appreciate learning the weather terminology and what it means.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I think if people keep trashing BP, and making demands on it... like paying the wages of laid off rig workers (due to Government new rules)... then BP is going to do the logical legal thing.

Pay their 75 Million penalty as laid out in your laws... and say.. sue us for the rest..it would take years to get any money.



The $75 million I believe doesn't apply if there is negligence on the part of BP. It's pretty obvious there was. I think you are right though, BP may very well declare bankruptcy. Texaco did it after their spill.
Quoting atmoaggie:

June caused it. June is expected to end at, or about, the end of June.
(in case you needed another answer.)

LOL!
1371. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL. This graph below should help you out, remember red and orange indicated favorable conditions.



GFS 72 Hour Shear Forecast
Thanks, I do well with pictures.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Inside the green line is where shear is favorable for TCs ... which means forget about development across the Central/Eastern Carribbean and Atlantic anytime soon. Perhaps a western Carribbean system could spin and survive due North into Eastern GOM, but nothing suggests that is happening.

Development should become more likely in the Caribbean in about 7-10 days or so.
well said jeff..
Quoting scott39:
Thanks, I do well with pictures.
Lol, no problem.
1375. hercj
Quoting Skyepony:
Kermit is flying over the current eddy today..map here.

Sky how do you get this before me. Are u at Macdill?
If you need a good laugh go to Youtube and type in BP Coffee Spill. :)
1377. keiser
From NOAA:
TUTT Low
Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough or TUTT Low - A semipermanent trough extending east-northeast to west-southwest from about 35N in the eastern Pacific to about 15 to 20N in the central west Pacific. A similar structure exists over the Atlantic Ocean, where the mean trough typically extends from Cuba toward Spain
Link

Wikipedia Page: Link
Quoting Orcasystems:


Two word response: Bhopal disaster


Two word responses rarely suffice, kids. Learn to read your own articles.
Quoting errantlythought:


Two word responses rarely suffice, kids. Learn to read your own articles.


Ergo the link, for the ones on here to young to remember :)
An interesting article related to BP:

Link
For Sleetman1:
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion Link
Click weekly ENSO Update. Last updated June 7, so pretty current.
1384. calder
Neutral seasons on average are more active than La Nina seasons

That was only because of the small sample that Dr. Masters used - 2005 skewed the data significantly
Nothing will develope anytime soon unless these waves can get further north. Anything that tries to get into the Caribbean will be killed immediatly. Now if something forms in the Gulf or Bahamas then watchout.
Quoting calder:
Neutral seasons on average are more active than La Nina seasons

That was only because of the small sample that Dr. Masters used - 2005 skewed the data significantly
True.
I am glad to say that I am about to embark on my Turks & Caicos trip later today and won't be back until June 19th.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Nothing will develope anytime soon unless these waves can get further north. Anything that tries tom get into the Caribbean will be killed immediatly. Now if something forms in the Gulf or Bahamas then watchout.
It's only June, waves are going to stay in the ITCZ for a while. What you have to watch for is when the waves cross through south America and make it to the SW Caribbean. That's where we'll probably see our first named storm. The Bahamian region isn't an area for tropical development in June, we could see the trailing end of a trough in the Bahamian region and possibly develop sub-tropically, but that's it.
Quoting Jeff9641:
I am glad to say that I am about to embark on my Turks & Caicos trip later today and won't be back until June 19th.
Have fun!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
True.


2005 is still part of the data set though

either way there is no evidence that La Nina developing or not developing would affect the numbers during the season, which is what my original point was
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's only June, waves are going to stay in the ITCZ for a while. What you have to watch for is when the waves cross through south America and make it to the SW Caribbean. That's where we'll probably see our first named storm. The Bahamian region isn't an area for tropical development in June, we could see the trailing end of a trough in the Bahamian region and possibly develop sub-tropically, but that's it.


Nothing will form in the SW Caribbean until October. As these waves come across they traverse over the Great Antilles and toward the GOM come next week. SW Caribbean missed the boat until October.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Hey everyone!
Please WUmail or post on my WU blog your detailed personal accounts of weather events (hurricanes, tornadoes, winter weather, etc.) along with any images you might like to include. I will be putting these stories on my weather site under the "Your Stories" section. I'm sure there are many here who have some intense weather stories to relate. Thanks!


Morning. On your blog, posted my story on riding out Hurricane Fran inland in Raleigh, NC (was pretty significant) while I was a kid.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


2005 is still part of the data set though

either way there is no evidence that La Nina developing or not developing would affect the numbers during the season, which is what my original point was
Yeah I have yet to see that too. Good point.
1395. calder
Quoting Hurricanes101:


2005 is still part of the data set though

either way there is no evidence that La Nina developing or not developing would affect the numbers during the season, which is what my original point was


Yup, the downcasters/wishcasters just need to be ignored! All they want is the attention.. Im gonna end up having 100 ignorees (if that's the right terminology!)
1396. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 16N ALONG 71W THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE W AT 15 KT TO ALONG 76W SAT...78W SUN...81W MON THEN
MOVE W THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE
EASTERLY TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.



SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL SHIFT W
REACHING A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA SUN NIGHT AND MON.
THE HIGH CENTER WILL BECOME ABSORBED IN AN ATLC RIDGING WHICH
WILL BUILD W ALONG 27N MON NIGHT AND TUE.

Quoting Jeff9641:


Nothing will form in the SW Caribbean until October. As these waves come across they traverse over the Great Antilles and toward the GOM come next week. SW Caribbean missed the boat until October.
October? So what you are saying is that waves emerging off of Africa will no longer be associated with the ITCZ and be completely dependent, I don't think so. I have yet to see any proof of what you are saying. Waves will continue to be associated with the ITCZ and continue to move westward into south America.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Morning. On your blog, posted my story on riding out Hurricane Fran inland in Raleigh, NC (was pretty significant) while I was a kid.


I think Florida and NC landfalls are likely July thru Sept. (Cape Verde storms). Then FL again come October from storms like Wilma and Opal.
Responsible Companies Try Wriggling Out of Paying Oil Spill Costs
By: Scott Nance
June 7th, 2010 @ 9:35 pm

Its already starting... wait for it
Quoting calder:


Yup, the downcasters/wishcasters just need to be ignored! All they want is the attention.. Im gonna end up having 100 ignorees (if that's the right terminology!)
That isn't smart because when the active season comes all you will see is a blog with your own posts. And I don't see the "wishcaster" you are referring to.
well, hello, hello, morning.
El Nino isn't here.. its been long gone sleetman. Its been gone since early May as a matter of fact. We're borderline La Nina right now.
Quoting Jeff9641:


I think Florida and NC landfalls are likely July thru Sept. (Cape Verde storms). Then FL again come October from storms like Wilma and Opal.
I think I could agree. Depending on the location of the A/B high and other components, if a system were to border the periphery of the A/B high it would affect somewhere along the eastern seaboard. I couldn't narrow it down to a state but the further south the more likely it is for a land-falling hurricane.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
October? So what you are saying is that waves emerging off of Africa will no longer be associated with the ITCZ and be completely dependent, I don't think so. I have yet to see any proof of what you are saying. Waves will continue to be associated with the ITCZ and continue to move westward into south America.


Nope I am willing to bet you anything that nothing will form in the SW Caribbean. Models Mid to late June shows these waves coming across the Greater Antilles and then across FL which is typical for late June. If nothing has formed in the SW Caribbean by now then odds are storms won't form there until October climatogy my friend you can't dispute that. Infact no model shows nothing in the SW Caribbean in the foreseeable future.
Quoting Jeff9641:


I think Florida and NC landfalls are likely July thru Sept. (Cape Verde storms). Then FL again come October from storms like Wilma and Opal.


It intersting, NC in the latter 1990s got pounded a lot (Bertha and Fran 1996, Bonnie 1998, Dennis and Floyd 1999). Then it has been really calm (at least inland in NC) concerning hurricanes ever since, except Isabel 2003.

FLWeatherFreak91 a couple of nights ago noted a pattern with the average of Atlantic storm tracks oscillating from west to east over 5 yrs, then restting to the west again. I wonder if there is a pattern that can explain the frequency of hurricanes in NC, and how can we really know this early in the season who will get what?
Off to work, Hope to good Dr is going to post an update :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
****************************************************************************************
Responsible Companies Try Wriggling Out of Paying Oil Spill Costs
By: Scott Nance
June 7th, 2010 @ 9:35 pm

Its already starting... wait for it

****************************************************************************************
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


It intersting, NC in the latter 1990s got pounded a lot (Bertha and Fran 1996, Bonnie 1998, Dennis and Floyd 1999). Then it has been really calm (at least inland in NC) concerning hurricanes ever since, except Isabel 2003.

FLWeatherFreak91 a couple of nights ago noted a pattern with the average of Atlantic storm tracks oscillating from west to east over 5 yrs, then restting to the west again. I wonder if there is a pattern that can explain the frequency of hurricanes in NC, and how can we really know this early in the season who will get what?


Trend has been since 2004 for storms to move further west. 80's & 90's in Florida were very quite except ANDREW.
LOoks like we might have Alex coming from the wave at 35W

Quoting Jeff9641:


Nope I am willing to bet you anything that nothing will form in the SW Caribbean. Models Mid to late June shows these waves coming across the Greater Antilles and then across FL which is typical for late June. If nothing has formed in the SW Caribbean by now then odds are storms won't form there until October climatogy my friend you can't dispute that. Infact no model shows nothing in the SW Caribbean in the foreseeable future.
Climatology means nothing to me. There are very favorable conditions in the SW Caribbean and that's the only place that you have continuous showers and thunderstorms due to the passing tropical waves. And I will be willing to bet that waves will not begin to become dependent from the ITCZ. The Gulf of Honduras also seems like a place for tropical cyclogenesis to occur.
Quoting TampaSpin:
LOoks like we might have Alex coming from the wave at 35W



That wave at 35W is forecasted by the GFS to bring some muched needed soaking rain to Florida later this month.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
I also think that when people see how high the numbers are being predicted for this season, they assume the season should have already had a storm and that just isn't always the case.

We could have our 1st named storm in May and only end up with 9 storms

We may not have our 1st named until late July and end up with 18 storms.

There are examples of both, June has very little to do with the overall activity in a season.

that is so true. i find myself asking that question all the time. i know i am meteorologically wrong about this, but i do feel more at ease when the season doesn't start early. but there is one thing that makes me feel uneasy, and that's the amount of waves that have been coming off Africa. it has been a steady stream of them, and i personally feel its too early for that to be happening. i know they haven't been doing much of nothing, but they seem to be getting stronger and stronger. as the last aoi was a wave that traveled a long way, and i still feel may emerge again. but you are very right that a late starting season does cause people to be more at ease about the rest of the season.
Quoting TampaSpin:
LOoks like we might have Alex coming from the wave at 35W

I doesn't seem like that wave will move NW as you are depicting on that graph. general westward motion is what is most likely to occur, as it is associated with the ITCZ.
Everyone have a good day.....BBL late tonite. No Fighting KIDS! I MEAN IT!...LOL
wow...
Quoting Jeff9641:


Trend has been since 2004 for storms to move further west. 80's & 90's in Florida were very quite except ANDREW.


Is there reason to believe this year storm tracks will be up and down the east coast? (now that you mention it, the 1980s and 1990s also had other big east coast hurricanes, like Bob 1991, or Gloria 1985)
Quoting Jeff9641:


That wave at 35W is forecasted by the GFS to bring some muched needed soaking rain to Florida later this month.
Are you kidding me? How is a wave associated with the ITCZ going to make it all the way to Florida? Horrible job by the GFS there.
I am glad to see no imminent tropicalthreats. Of course, June is normally so quiet that one could almost not include it in hurricane season. Almost. Today is our first really hot summery humid day. We were 96 a few days ago, but it was a dry heat, by our standards. It is shimmering, humid, and hot!

At least 6 dead at a Polk County, Arkansas campsite due to a flash flood. Horrible!
1387 Jeff9641 "I am glad to say that I am about to embark on my Turks & Caicos trip later today and won't be back until June 19th."

Enjoy the Cat.5... oh wait, that was CycloneOz.
Sorry for the mistake. We've canceled the storm and taken the charge off of your vacation billing.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I doesn't seem like that wave will move NW as you are depicting on that graph. general westward motion is what is most likely to occur, as it is associated with the ITCZ.


That wave will be stronger and will move north out of the ITCZ IMO.....have a good day.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Is there reason to believe this year storm tracks will be up and down the east coast? (now that you mention it, the 1980s and 1990s also had other big east coast hurricanes, like Bob 1991, or Gloria 1985)
Yes. the location of the B/A high. It's forecasted to be at a location that not many Floridians may like.
Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
wow...


I also noticed that low pressure spin too this morning! Idk yet, lets watch for persistence, maybe the NHC will start to notice this extratropical to posibly tropical transition. We can remember Vince 2005 and Grace 2009 that SSTs don't have to be 26 C+ for that process.
Quoting TampaSpin:


That wave will be stronger and will move north out of the ITCZ IMO.....have a good day.
The only way that it could separate itself from the ITCZ is if it develops an area of low pressure to the north and or separated from the ITCZ, I myself don't see that taking place.
I've always thought that trying to pin down the most likely places to be hit during a season is ridiculous, aside from using climatology. I pay attention to individual storms and their circumstances.

And I am glad the solo circumnavigating 16 year old sailor is apparently ok.
1426. NRAamy
SQUAWK!!!!
That's horrible IKE! CNN said 6 when I looked earlier.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes. the location of the B/A high. It's forecasted to be at a location that not many Floridians may like.


Just curious, I wonder how forecasters predict the mean position the B/A high in advance? Which climate oscillations affect it?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I've always thought that trying to pin down the most likely places to be hit during a season is ridiculous, aside from using climatology. I pay attention to individual storms and their circumstances.

And I am glad the solo circumnavigating 16 year old sailor is apparently ok.
The only way that I could say that the eastern seaboard is at a higher risk of a land-falling hurricane, is the location of the A/B high. Simple as that. But It very much varies if there is some other component in the way of it as it makes it towards the eastern seaboard (trough, area of low pressure, etc...)
Quoting IKE:
12 dead in Arkansas flash floods


Wow, that's awful. People need weather radios.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
That's horrible IKE! CNN said 6 when I looked earlier.


CNN.com has it up as "breaking news" now with 12 people.
Just checked SSTs. The surface low in post 1415 is heading SE on the back side of its parent upper trough, and has just begun to cross the cold/warm gradient of the Gulf stream in the NW Atlantic. What will be crucial over the next several hours is to see if its convection increases (warmer SSTs combined with cold core upper low increases chances for more atmospheric instability, we'll see when we cross stability threshold).
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Just curious, I wonder how forecasters predict the mean position the B/A high in advance? Which climate oscillations affect it?
The NAO. If it is negative the A/B high is weak and the Icelandic low is stronger, resulting in the A/B high being further southwest than normal. And a positive phase of the NAO it's the other way around, with the A/B high being further northeast than normal.

Positive NAO = More fish systems (systems that curve out to sea)

Negative NAO = More land-falling systems.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Just checked SSTs. The surface low in post 1415 is heading SE on the back side of its parent upper trough, and has just begun to cross the cold/warm gradient of the Gulf stream in the NW Atlantic. What will be crucial over the next several hours is to see if its convection increases (warmer SSTs combined with cold core upper low increases chances for more atmospheric instability, we'll see when we cross stability threshold).
Please notify me of the coordinates of that system. I can't seem to find it on satellite imagery.



maybe a extratropical storm..wow.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Please notify me of the coordinates of that system. I can't seem to find it on satellite imagery.


around 39N 63W
Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
maybe a extratropical storm..wow.
It is fully extra-tropical and has no conditions available for a sub-tropical or tropical transition. No development of that is anticipated.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


around 39N 63W
Got it. It's fully extra-tropical, and is showing no signs of making a transition to a warm core.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Please notify me of the coordinates of that system. I can't seem to find it on satellite imagery.


Center fix is roughly at 65W, 38N, located south of Nova Scotia and well ESE of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Infrared image of swirl center not that great at this time with lack of convection, nice comma shaped convection to its east, but visible satellite image looks nice now.
NAO could briefly turn positive around June 15th and then go negative once more.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Center fix is roughly at 65W, 38N, located south of Nova Scotia and well ESE of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Infrared image of swirl center not that great at this time with lack of convection, nice comma shaped convection to its east, but visible satellite image looks nice now.
It looks nice, but should not be recognized as anything that could possibly develop.
1442. SQUAWK
AMY!!!!
Quoting Jeff9641:


Nope I am willing to bet you anything that nothing will form in the SW Caribbean. Models Mid to late June shows these waves coming across the Greater Antilles and then across FL which is typical for late June. If nothing has formed in the SW Caribbean by now then odds are storms won't form there until October climatogy my friend you can't dispute that. Infact no model shows nothing in the SW Caribbean in the foreseeable future.

see thats why I ignored you in the first place. arrogant. you seem like you are somewhat knowledgeable but your attitude leaves something to be desired
Quoting SouthALWX:

see thats why I ignored you in the first place. arrogant. you seem like you are somewhat knowledgeable but your attitude leaves something to be desired
It may sound ridiculous to you, (I won't give an opinion on it) but why don't you wait to see if he's right before you put him on your ignore list? Because it seems to me that by putting someone that you said yourself sounds knowledgeable on your ignore list is arrogant.
Tropical Cyclone Phet before it mage landfall in Oman.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The only way that I could say that the eastern seaboard is at a higher risk of a land-falling hurricane, is the location of the A/B high. Simple as that. But It very much varies if there is some other component in the way of it as it makes it towards the eastern seaboard (trough, area of low pressure, etc...)

With the predominant -NAO I expect further west. If it begins to stay neutral or positive I feel the east coast faces more threats. Also, the atlantic tripole should help steer most things west as well as it reinforces the high.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Trend has been since 2004 for storms to move further west. 80's & 90's in Florida were very quite except ANDREW.
That's not true if I may say so... I calculated the average tracks of all of the hurricanes in each season and the average trends back and forth between east and west on a five year cycle. The most recent furthest west year was 2007.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
It may sound ridiculous to you, (I won't give an opinion on it) but why don't you wait to see if he's right before you put him on your ignore list? Because it seems to me that by putting someone that you said yourself sounds knowledgeable on your ignore list is arrogant.
That's not what he meant. It's just he's closing off the SW Caribbean for no development and it's evidently the area most conducive for development at the moment. He is using climatology, which seems wrong because when looking at current conditions climatology isn't something you look at.
Quoting SouthALWX:

With the predominant -NAO I expect further west. If it begins to stay neutral or positive I feel the east coast faces more threats. Also, the atlantic tripole should help steer most things west as well as it reinforces the high.
True.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
It may sound ridiculous to you, (I won't give an opinion on it) but why don't you wait to see if he's right before you put him on your ignore list? Because it seems to me that by putting someone that you said yourself sounds knowledgeable on your ignore list is arrogant.

anyone who says he'll "bet anything" when talking about a specific forecast being accurate ... especially weeks/months in advance ...is exceptionally arrogant. Right or wrong it doesnt matter. His attitude is horrible.
Quoting StormW:


Good article...good section on the NAO:

Forecasting U.S. Hurricanes 6 Months in Advance
Hello! What do you think about the SW Caribbean being completely closed off for development as Jeff9641 insisted on.

By the way thanks for the link.
The campgrounds appear to be in a bowl. It is suspected people are still trapped.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It looks nice, but should not be recognized as anything that could possibly develop.


Darn, can't see from NHC surface analysis in tropical weather discussion if it has an occluded front, first step toward low-level warm core. Then we need convection to advance that warm core.

Keeping only a faint eye on it at this time too until convection starts to develop.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Darn, can't see from NHC surface analysis in tropical weather discussion if it has an occluded front, first step toward low-level warm core. Then we need convection to advance that warm core.

Keeping only a faint eye on it at this time too until convection starts to develop.
SSTs don't support subtropical or for that matter tropical development.
Quoting DestinJeff:


you just know this is coming ...

"This wave looks very impressive for June. IMO it is the one to watch for possible development."


How long will this take to come across Africa?
Quoting SouthALWX:

anyone who says he'll "bet anything" when talking about a specific forecast being accurate ... especially weeks/months in advance ...is exceptionally arrogant. Right or wrong it doesnt matter. His attitude is horrible.
Remember with the remnants of Agatha he insisted that the remnants were going to affect North Carolina and that he would "bet anything" on it. Now enough of this man. Back to the dead tropics.
Quoting StormW:
Atlantic Hurricane Tracks El Nino vs La Nina

Atlantic Hurricane Tracks
The Caribbean, GOM coast, and eastern seaboard are all much more greatly affected during La Nina. Not a good sign for this upcoming year.
Sorry...image didn't post. It was the image from post 1212 by DestinJeff.
What's the latest news on Alex? Is he feeling any better?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
SSTs don't support subtropical or for that matter tropical development.


I see it is crossing ESE along north wall of Gulf Stream, and we saw Vince 2005 and Grace 2009 develop over SSTs below 26 deg C. You're right, it could be that SSTs are too cool, but I think you also have to look at upper air temps too. If upper air is really cold in its parent upper trough/low (like with Grace), then you can induce instability with SSTs and low-level temps cooler than 26 deg C.

I think this process is impossible with surface temps in the teens deg C, but as this system crosses toward Gulf Stream (temps toward 20s deg C), depending on upper air temp), maybe convection could develop. Just curious, wonder what upper air (200 mb) temp is?
Quoting StormW:


Care to be more specific Lat/Long wise?
Just north of Panama. Ummm, here's a picture:



lol
Quoting Orcasystems:
Responsible Companies Try Wriggling Out of Paying Oil Spill Costs
By: Scott Nance
June 7th, 2010 @ 9:35 pm

Its already starting... wait for it


Oh good lord, conspiracy moar elsewhere. Also try actual sources, not worthless blogs.

Especially when said worthless blogs report the story a month late to make it appear this is magically happening now.
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning everyone.

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, June 11th
Good morning/afternoon!
Quoting StormW:




Hmmm... Not liking that one.
Quoting StormW:




Do you have one for La Nina years?
1475. BDAwx
Good morning/afternoon.
Wondering if something can spin up around 33/75 near the Carolinas.
Loop
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Remember with the remnants of Agatha he insisted that the remnants were going to affect North Carolina and that he would "bet anything" on it. Now enough of this man. Back to the dead tropics.

anyway ... Once we get something that looks decent Ill start making posts again more often...
In the meantime a refresher course:
A) Above average SSTs in the tropical atlantic points to higher than average storms and intensity
B) El Nino transitioning rapidly to La Nina as evidenced by subsurface temperature anomalies and the positive Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)also indicates increased activity.
C) Strong Atlantic tripole focuses heat to the tropics and tends to shift tracks westward.
D) Predominant negative north atlantic oscillation points to westward tracks(-NAO)
E) Shift to Cold Pacific Decadal Oscillation (-PDO) climatological occurs near the peak of the Warm phase Atlantic Multidecadal OScillation (AMO).. this is also evidenced by recent readings indicating the highest values we use to determine AMO are occuring now and just recently
F) average to above average rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa should help keep dust near average.
G) very active wavetrain off of africa
H) while a easterly Quasi-Biennial zonal wind oscillation (QBO)prevails, this was present during 2005 as well and most professionals no longer use this to forecast activity as it shows little skill in the warm AMO phase ...



okay Im done ... time to go .. do stuff
edit: fixed typo
Surface analysis in post 1475 has NW Atlantic low at 1005 mb with occlusion, again just first step in low-level warm core. We'll have to wait and see if convection starts (comment in post 1465 explains how I believe it can start depending on stability of atm.)
Quoting StormW:


Actually...we are in an easterly QBO...as was 2005.

thanks for the correction, typo.
1483. Levi32
Quoting Chicklit:
Good morning/afternoon.
Wondering if something can spin up around 33/75 near the Carolinas.
Loop


One good reason why it won't, among other things, is that surface pressures are over 1018mb in the area, and will be rising to over 1020mb during the next day or so. Nothing will develop under that kind of high pressure.
hiya, storm.
1485. Levi32
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Surface analysis in post 1475 has NW Atlantic low at 1005 mb with occlusion, again just first step in low-level warm core. We'll have to wait and see if convection starts (comment in post 1465 explains how I believe it can start depending on stability of atm.)


24 hours....heavily baroclinic. From there it gets kicked out to the northeast. No chance of acquiring tropical characteristics of any kind. Not every wrapped up occluded system will get them.

this is interesting ... found it while I was verifying some of the acronyms (they are trickly little suckers sometimes .. especially spelling!)


The discovery of the QBO

The eruption of the Krakatau volcano (6 ° S 105 ° E) on August 27th 1883 led people to believe that the stratospheric wind above the equator blew in a westward direction. Dust from the eruption took 13 days to circle the equator and this upper air wind became known as the Krakatau easterlies.

In 1908 Berson launched observational balloons above Lake Victoria in Africa and found westerly winds at about 15km (120mb). These westerly winds are called Berson's westerlies.
These conflicting results were resolved through the work of Reed (1961) and Veryard and Edbon (1961), who showed that the wind above the equator oscillates in direction. It was shown that the wind in the stratosphere changed direction on average every 26 months and that the alternating easterly and westerly wind regimes descend with time.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
That's not true if I may say so... I calculated the average tracks of all of the hurricanes in each season and the average trends back and forth between east and west on a five year cycle. The most recent furthest west year was 2007.


Your right. I just know from living in C FL that it seems we've been lucky until 2004 came around. I know the 60's and I think 70's were somewhat active in C FL for tropical systems. My grandad said that when he first moved here in the 60's it seemed that every summer a hurricane was targeting C FL. Infact he went through Donna and he said never again.
Quoting StormW:


Here's a little something that explains how the QBO MAY affect Atlantic storms. From one of Dr. Grey's seasonal forecasts. In my research, found the QBO affects only the region as far N-S as 15 deg. max. Again, the QBO may not have much in a warm AMO, but then again in 2005, the majority of systems either developed, or gained strength at or above 15N

2. QBO winds as a long-range predictor of hurricane activity

a. QBO variability

The easterly and westerly modes of stratospheric QBO zonal winds that circle the globe over the equatorial regions have a substantial influence on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity (Gray 1984a; Shapiro 1989). About twice as much intense-hurricane activity (Vmax > 50 m s-1) occurs during seasons when the stratospheric QBO winds at 50 mb (20-km level) are in the westerly anomaly mode. As illustrated in Figs. 1 and 2, the absolute values of the zonal vertical wind shear between 50 mb (20 km) and 30 mb, (23 km) is relatively small in west-phase seasons. Table 2 shows the associations of forward-extrapolated (from November to September) stratospheric QBO zonal winds and Atlantic hurricane activity, particularly intense-hurricane activity. Note the large differences in the numbers of intense hurricane activity that occur between these two QBO stratified 15-yr groupings. Figure 3 shows the large differences in intense-hurricane tracks that are associated with these contrasting extrapolated QBO zonalwind variations.

The physical cause of these QBO-linked differences may be due to the contrasting stratospheric horizontal wind ventilation processes across the top of the hurricane, as illustrated in Fig. 2 and discussed by Gray (1988). During the east phase of the QBO, the absolute value of the stratospheric QBO winds at latitudes of 10�-15�N are strongly from the east. This condition causes net advection of hurricane structural elements that extend into the lower stratosphere away from the hurricane center. This relative advection is likely to act to restrain the stratospheric contribution to hurricane development and intensification. By contrast, during the west phase of the QBO, the absolute value of the zonal wind in the stratosphere (over hurricanes) at 10�- 15� N is weak. In this case, comparatively small horizontal wind ventilation may occur in the lower stratosphere (Fig. 2). This west-phase condition is a positive influence on the inner-core intensity of developing hurricanes. In this way the QBO west phase is a positive cyclone influence, and the east phase a negative influence. Additionally, it is possible that the QBO exerts other dynamical influences upon the largescale environment within which the hurricanes form. These involve hydrostatic height and temperature field differences associated with east and west phases of the QBO. Recent work (e.g., Gray et al. 1992a,b) shows support for these ideas; however, continued research into the QBO-tropical cyclone association is needed.


I actually have wondered if perhaps the easterly QBO would help keep waves weak and therfore following the trades until they gained enough latitude to get away from the negative effects ...Right about when they get into the carribean sounds right .. oh and where might they go? Yeah it might be a stretch but I think it's plausible that while it suppresses storms initially, if coupled with favorable conditions on the reciving end, it might lead to more landfalls despite a modestly lesser total ACE or storm number.
Quoting Levi32:


24 hours....heavily baroclinic. From there it gets kicked out to the northeast. No chance of acquiring tropical characteristics of any kind. Not every wrapped up occluded system will get them.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-vis.html

Satellite animation shows the low heading ESE right now. Clicking on the check box HDW-high shows upper-level winds NWerly, its caught on the back side of its parent upper trough, which is why its heading ESE.

Maybe later it will track NE if its get caught back into the east side of its parent upper trough. Not really excited about this system yet either until I see some convection at the center.

EDIT: I think the most baroclinic part is off to the east now that its occluded. But it is true that not all deeply-occluded systems become tropical because they often don't run into enough atm. instability (warm enough SSTs coupled with cold enough upper low/trough) to develop convection.
Hi, levi! levi, a quick question, what did you exactly mean by, towards the end of the month, tropical waves will begin to travel north of the carrib?
Hmmmm...this is just a random area that I saw. An area in the CPAC...too low in latitude for anything to develop but certainly interesting.



But in the meantime...here's what i'm looking at in the atlantic.



**ALL IMAGES MADE BY CYCLONEKID**
1494. IKE
NEW BLOG!
New BLOG!
Quoting errantlythought:


Oh good lord, conspiracy moar elsewhere. Also try actual sources, not worthless blogs.

Especially when said worthless blogs report the story a month late to make it appear this is magically happening now.


no need to be so rude.. Orca is a respected and well liked member here.
Quoting Chicklit:
Good morning/afternoon.
Wondering if something can spin up around 33/75 near the Carolinas.
Loop

More of it
here
here
and here
Quoting Levi32:


One good reason why it won't, among other things, is that surface pressures are over 1018mb in the area, and will be rising to over 1020mb during the next day or so. Nothing will develop under that kind of high pressure.




what about 100-200 miles east of the bahamas????possible???
1499. cg2916
New blog!
1500. cg2916
NEW BLOG!!!