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TS Colin Becomes Post-Tropical Near the North Carolina Coast

By: Bob Henson 4:06 PM GMT on June 07, 2016

Looking more like a mammoth squall line than a tropical cyclone, former Tropical Storm Colin was reclassified as a post-tropical cyclone at 11 AM EDT Tuesday by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The ill-defined center of Colin was placed at 34.0°N, 77.0°W, or about 40 miles east-southeast of Wilmington and 40 miles south-southwest of Morehead City. Colin was racing northeastward at 36 mph, a track that will take it well east of North Carolina by Tuesday afternoon. A tropical storm warning remained in effect from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet, NC, but will likely be discontinued early Tuesday afternoon. Nearly all of the intense showers and thunderstorms (convection) associated with Colin at midday Tuesday were located along an elongated zone extending from just east of Colin’s center hundreds of miles toward the south. With Colin’s west side so weak, rainfall has been less widespread and intense than earlier expected along the coastline from Georgia to North Carolina.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin at 1415Z (10:15 AM EDT) Tuesday, June 7, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 2. A driver's automobile stalls during high tide of Tropical Storm Colin in the Westshore area of Tampa, Fla., Monday, June 6, 2016. Image credit: Octavio Jones/The Tampa Bay Times via AP.

Colin’s impact in Florida
Severe weather associated with Colin’s arrival in Florida was minimal, according to reports compiled by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center as of Tuesday morning. There were only a handful of reports of high wind and just two tornadoes (one in Duval County in far northeast Florida, and the other a waterspout moving onto the southwest coast near Bonita Beach). Minor coastal flooding was widespread across Florida’s Gulf Coast as winds on the east side of Colin pushed water ashore. A storm surge of just over 4.3 feet was observed at Cedar Key, FL, during low tide around 9 PM EDT Monday. A few hours earlier, the surge was lower, but it combined with one of the largest high tides of the month (as a result of last weekend’s new moon) to create a total storm tide [storm effect + tidal effect] of 5.17 feet. This produced the highest water since 2006’s Tropical Storm Alberto in the low-lying Cedar Key region, flooding a number of businesses and topping the storm tide produced by Tropical Storm Debby in 2012. The juxtaposition of peak storm surge with monthly high tide cycles is both a curse and a blessing, according to storm surge expert Hal Needham: “When surge hits near full or new moon, the peak water level is a bit higher, but the event may be of a shorter duration, as water quickly recedes soon after the high tide.” Colin's water level at high tide came in about 5 inches above Needham’s prediction of 4.72 feet featured in our Monday morning blog post.


Figure 3. Preliminary data show that a storm surge of around 3 feet (red curve minus blue curve) coincided with high tide (blue curve) on Monday afternoon, June 6, 2016, at Cedar Key, FL. The storm surge was even larger during the subsequent low tide. Image credit: NOAA.

Tampa Bay gets a parting blow from Colin
Colin was much less organized than 2012’s Tropical Storm Debby, also a June storm from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Debby produced a large area of rainfall topping 10” across northern Florida. Even though Colin’s sustained winds at landfall were higher than Debby’s, its rapid northeast motion and marked asymmetry kept the heaviest rains limited to a few localized areas, including the Tampa Bay region. Some of Tampa’s worst weather with Colin arrived with intense rainbands that continued to stream ashore Monday evening into Tuesday morning, long after Colin’s center had moved far to the north. Wind gusts hit 48 mph at Tampa’s Knight Airport just before 1 AM ET. CoCoRaHS reports through 7 AM ET Tuesday showed widespread 5” - 7” rainfall amounts over Pinellas and western Hillsborough Counties, including the Tampa and St. Petersburg areas. The heaviest rains had shifted just south of Tampa by late morning Tuesday. Two other pockets of heavy rain from Colin were in the eastern Florida Panhandle (including a CoCoRaHS report of 8.30” in northern Jefferson County) and in a belt across the far northern Florida peninsula (a whopping 10.95” in far southwest Alachua County).


Figure 4. 24-hour rainfall amounts from 8:00 AM EDT Monday, June 6, 2016, to 8 AM Tuesday, June 7. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

Named storms during the Atlantic winter: which year do they belong to?
Though it wasn’t a catastrophic event, Tropical Storm Colin made history in one way: Never before have we been tracking the Atlantic’s third named storm of a calendar year this early in the year. There have been just two other “C” storms as early as June since current naming practices began in the 1950s: Hurricane Chris (which began as a named subtropical storm on June 18, 2012) and Tropical Storm Candy (June 23, 1968). Going all the way back to 1851, the previous earliest appearance of the season’s third storm was June 12, 1887, although some early-season storms were undoubtedly missed during the pre-satellite era. What’s more, each of this year’s first three Atlantic named storms have all made landfall: Hurricane Alex in the Azores, Tropical Storm Bonnie in North Carolina, and Tropical Storm Colin in Florida.

It’s a truly impressive achievement to have our third named Atlantic storm of 2016—much less our third landfall—before we’re even halfway through June. But was Hurricane Alex really a 2016 event? One could make a case that extremely early tropical cyclones such as Alex are more closely tied to the previous year’s activity. The seasonality of hurricanes is driven in large part by sea surface temperature, which tends to hit its annual minimum around March in the Northern Hemisphere tropics and subtropics. This would suggest a physical rationale for defining a full-year hurricane season, at least for some research purposes, as running from March through February. In records going back to 1851, four tropical or subtropical cyclones of at least tropical storm strength have developed in January, and a tropical storm nicknamed the Groundhog Day storm developed on February 2, 1952. Then we find a gap until March 6, 1908, when a tropical storm that went on to become an unnamed Category 2 hurricane developed northeast of the Leeward Islands (oddly, this one headed southwest and ended up affecting the islands of Antigua and Basseterre). There is another large gap until the next-earliest tropical storm, Ana, which formed on April 20, 2003.

Based on these records, it could be argued that tropical cyclones in the Atlantic during January and early February, such as Alex, are more closely related to conditions found during the prior June-to-November season than to those that will prevail in the upcoming season. The same notion would apply to Hurricane Pali, which became the Central Pacific’s earliest named storm on record on January 7 of this year. An even more noticeable early-year minimum can be seen in statistics for the Northwest Pacific (see Figure 5 below), with the dip especially prominent because of the large number of tropical cyclones overall in that region. If we lived in the Southern Hemisphere, the calendar-year question would be a no-brainer, since the core of every season straddles two calendar years.

I checked in with Brian McNoldy (University of Miami/RSMAS) for his thoughts on calendar-year climatology. “I think most would agree that Alex was more a late-comer to the 2015 season than an early start to the 2016 season,” McNoldy said. Of course, it could be confusing if some researchers or agencies defined the Atlantic season in a calendar-year fashion while others used a different starting/ending date. “In the end,” McNoldy added, “there are so few extreme cases (Jan-Feb formations) that I doubt it would have any noticeable impact on climatology rankings or calculations.”



Figure 5. Seasonal climatology of tropical storms, typhoons, and super typhoons in the Northwest Pacific for the period 1959 - 2010. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.


Figure 6. Infrared satellite image from 1345Z (9:45 AM EDT) Tuesday, June 7, 2016, showing showers and thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm Colin (top of image) and TD 1-E (bottom left, along and just off the southern coast of Mexico). Other showers and thunderstorms are associated with a disturbance in the Northwest Caribbean (center of image). Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

TD 1E is born in the Northeast Pacific, but just barely
NHC began issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 1E, the first of the Northeast Pacific season, on Monday afternoon. TD 1E is associated with the same very broad channel of moisture that extends from the eastern Pacific all the way to Tropical Storm Colin (see Figure 6 above). As with Colin, TD 1E is a quite asymmetric system, with most of its convection concentrated on its east side. Between moderate wind shear and proximity to land, TD 1E is not expected to strengthen before it either dissipates or eases into the south coast of Mexico on Wednesday. Heavy rains and dangerous flash floods and mudslides are possible over the nearby mountainous terrain of southern Mexico and western Guatemala. Farther to the west, a disturbance located some 1400 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas could undergo some slow development over the next couple of days, posing no threat to land.

Bob Henson

Hurricane Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Mr Henson
just out of curiosity how does it transition....or rather what is happening during the phase?
Bob must have been following that conversation yesterday about to which season should Alex belong.

1-E not having to cross Oaxaca gives it a better chance to make it in our basin with some meat on the bone, but it's up in the air at this point. I doubt it, maybe if it had become at least a TS. NHC kills it over land. As someone pointed out yesterday basin cross-overs aren't all that common.
great a lunch time read thanks

seems maybe something may form up on the tale in the nw carb maybe aoi looks interesting

Quoting 5. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

seems maybe something may form up on the tale in the nw carb maybe aoi looks interesting




colin part 2?
Duval is a county not a town.
Well, Colin was fairly underwhelming for me up in Marion County. I've gotten better thunderstorms than this, tbh. Got about 3.5 inches of rain from it. (yes I'm calling that underwhelming, I've had summer thunderstorms drop a couple inches in an hour or so before). Guess I just didn't get the worst part of it, looking at how much flooding and such Tampa and similar areas got. Hope the affected areas recover quickly and we don't get another storm too close on the heels of this one....which if the rumbles I'm seeing about more development in the Caribbean within a week turn out to be correct we might...we'll just have to wait and see.
Quoting 7. 7544:



colin part 2?
perhaps
Thanks Mr. Henson. From a historical perspective, the worst surge and wind damage in recent decades to the Cedar Key area was not from a tropical storm but the 1993 "great storm" of March 1993 which was the powerful winter low that transitioned into the brutal nor'easter. Cedar Key and that part of the "forgotten" coast of Florida was impacted with basically Cat 2 wind speeds with over 10 feet of storm surge...........The whole eastern half of the US was devastated by that one which included numerous deaths as well as tornado outbreaks:


well seems the lower lakes eastward best take advantage of the little cool spell
the next few days
seems heat will return with a vengeance
by end of week on Friday

as per nam anyway


Quoting 3. win1gamegiantsplease:

Bob must have been following that conversation yesterday about to which season should Alex belong.

I-E not having to cross Oaxaca gives it a better chance to make it in our basin with some meat on the bone, but it's up in the air at this point. I doubt it, maybe if it had become at least a TS. NHC kills it over land. As someone pointed out yesterday basin cross-overs aren't all that common.


Yes, Busy Bob! Keeping track of the tropics and comment thread. I think it's great he peruses the comments, what seems often.

I reckon the moisture band more likely to stream into the gulf, than for it to stay intact in any way too.
Quoting 1. bucyouup68:

Thanks Mr Masters

Dr master is not here
I believe if we got development from this system,it will not go North as Colin did,we will have a stationary front in Central Florida and in my opinion it can't go further North, the front will block it, so landfall what ever it's will be South like Naples the boundary of the stationary front.
Quoting 2. 19N81W:

just out of curiosity how does it transition....or rather what is happening during the phase?


Colin's energy is now mostly due to baroclinic processes, in this case the colder air mass behind the approaching cold front instead of condensation of heat as tropical lows do. Determined in part by its frontal look and elongated center as Bob described.

Quoting 8. MahFL:

Duval is a county not a town.


Not according to T.I.
The big picture across the tropics and tropical Atlantic on June 7th...........................


overnight lows the next couple of nights will be near 46 or slightly cooler by Friday rebound begins
64 outside now with daytime high of 68 expected for my area
Quoting 4. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

great a lunch time read thanks


. Took the words right out of my mouth lol
Quoting 5. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

seems maybe something may form up on the tale in the nw carb maybe aoi looks interesting


Same type of set up in June of 74.....Link
Quoting 15. Tazmanian:


Dr master is not here


Modified!
Quoting 11. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks Mr. Henson. From a historical perspective, the worst surge and wind damage in recent decades to the Cedar Key area was not from a tropical storm but the 1993 "great storm" of March 1993 which was the powerful winter low that transitioned into the brutal nor'easter. Cedar Key and that part of the "forgotten" coast of Florida was impacted with basically Cat 2 wind speeds with over 10 feet of storm surge...........The whole eastern half of the US was devastated by that one which included numerous deaths as well as tornado outbreaks:







Its close, but TS Debbie may have just beaten out the surge (not the winds) of the March 1993 event.

Edit: My conclusion is totally incorrect, due to my inability to correctly assign TS Debby to the correct year, 2012. Sometimes I wonder how I am able to find my way back home each day . . .
And finally, the current Enso forecast from the Aussies issued today:

Tropical Pacific Ocean continues its cooling trend

The tropical Pacific Ocean remains in a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state—neither El Niño nor La Niña. Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific have been at neutral levels for the past four weeks, with the central Pacific Ocean having recently cooled to levels close to the long-term average. Temperatures below the tropical Pacific Ocean surface are much cooler than average. In the atmosphere, indicators such as the trade winds, cloudiness near the Date Line, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are at neutral levels. The latest monthly SOI (+2.8 for May 2016) is the highest value since May 2014.

The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH. This suggests around a 50% likelihood of La Niña forming later in 2016. International climate models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, with six of eight models suggesting La Niña is likely to form during the austral winter (June–August). However, individual model outlooks show a large spread between neutral and La Niña scenarios. At least one model suggests La Niña conditions may be short lived, returning to neutral by October.

Quoting 24. daddyjames:





Its close, but TS Debbie may have just beaten out the surge (not the winds) of the March 1993 event.


Yeah, but statistically speaking, it pretty much was a tie . . . 0.02 ft difference.


Top Ten Highest Water Levels in feet above MHHW (as of 1/2015)
8727520 Cedar Key, FL (since 1914) !
8/31/1985 5.41
10/7/1996 5.15
3/13/1993 5.13
6/19/1972 4.21
6/9/1966 4.00
7/10/2005 3.99
6/5/1995 3.73
10/4/1995 3.45
9/3/1998 3.39
11/1/1985 3.19

Seems as if this has become a semi-regular occurrence in the past few decades.

Edit: My conclusion is totally incorrect, due to my inability to correctly assign TS Debby to the correct year, 2012. Sometimes I wonder how I am able to find my way back home each day . . .
Convection seems popping up near yucatan
From last blog...

Quoting 159. Bocajb01: I can only assume JNFlori30A is indeed one of these "super sleuth" Forecasters that can't get it right.

No 'super sleuthing' going on here! Just enjoy the weather and most of the bloggers who frequent here. Looks like you have been around for almost 2 years and so I was surprised at the disparaging remarks about the storm forecast. As you certainly know, there is regular in-depth ongoing discussions about forecasting on this blog and I believe that we all want it to consistently improve. I am sorry that Colin did not send any precip your way, and coming from SoCal I have much experience with dealing with drought conditions. Not Fun! It is such a gorgeous day here in NW Florida. The humidity is low thanks to Colin and the storm thankfully never organized into a hurricane. The blog did not suffer a melt-down and there are just some many things to be thankful for. I hope that you are having a very nice day today and that you get some significant precip soon! God Bless, Jeff

29. 7544
Quoting 16. Hurricane1956:

I believe if we got development from this system,it will not go North as Colin did,we will have a stationary front in Central Florida and in my opinion it can't go further North, the front will block it, so landfall what ever it's will be South like Naples the boundary of the stationary front.


yep
72 w/ 48 dp to your SW Keep. Press back up to 29.9 after low-mid 29.7s yesterday. I had 3" Sat. morn but friend on other side of town said he had 5". So, after this brief cool down in S C IL, expect the knee high corn to be chest high next week, as we are supposed to get our first 90s of the summer Fri-Sun (w/ humidity). Also, 8 min shy of 15hrs of sun today.
Although if you take into account the general trend in sea level rise (.0059 ft/year), then the 1993 event would be the same amount as the TS Debby event in terms of surge alone. So, you would be correct also. It would be a tie . . .

Edit; modified the statement (correcting a miscalculation)

Edit: My conclusion is totally incorrect, due to my inability to correctly assign TS Debby to the correct year, 2012. Sometimes I wonder how I am able to find my way back home each day . . .
Quoting 166. MahFL:



You can't get a strong TD.

Touche'
NHC dissipates the current E-Pac depression over land and there is a hostile shear environment in the Gulf at this point just to the North of the Yucatan Channel area as well: would not hold my breath on potential development in the Gulf at this point in the short-term.




Thank you for update Dr. Henson
Quoting 20. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

64 outside now with daytime high of 68 expected for my area


Idk where you are at, Keep, but I kinda wish I was there right now. Temp is 94 feels like 110, and it was only supposed to hit 89 today. Humidity is awful after Colin here, stepped outside to get the mail and felt like I had been slapped in the face with a wet rag that then stuck lol.
GFS, CMS and Euro on board with potential development in 48 hours. Now, NAVGEM on board.

Link

Interesting week to say the least regardless of development.
http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/cmc/cmc _carib_accprec.html
Quoting 34. weathermanwannabe:

NHC dissipates the current E-Pac depression over land and there is a hostile shear environment in the Gulf at this point just to the North of the Yucatan Channel area as well: would not hold my breath on potential development in the Gulf at this point in the short-term.







Shear had been dropping tho. Link
Shear is like gas, it comes and goes.

Sam Champion.
Quoting 39. gator23:



Shear had been dropping tho. Link
The upper air environment is favorable (tutt free Gulf at the moment) so I suppose the models are picking up on the lower level vort signatures: have to wait and see if we have a viable disturbance emerge over the next few days I suppose.


Upper Levels:



Surface:
Quoting 41. weathermanwannabe:


The upper air environment is favorable (tutt free Gulf at the moment) so I suppose the models are picking up on the lower level vort signatures: have to wait and see if we have a viable disturbance emerge over the next few days I suppose.


TBH I think you'll know more or less by tonight's TWO. 48 hours isnt a lot of time. We are only talking about a TD here anyway.
Thanks Mr Henson.
Quoting 11. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks Mr. Henson. From a historical perspective, the worst surge and wind damage in recent decades to the Cedar Key area was not from a tropical storm but the 1993 "great storm" of March 1993 which was the powerful winter low that transitioned into the brutal nor'easter. Cedar Key and that part of the "forgotten" coast of Florida was impacted with basically Cat 2 wind speeds with over 10 feet of storm surge...........The whole eastern half of the US was devastated by that one which included numerous deaths as well as tornado outbreaks:





Quoting 43. Patrap:





Pinhole eye lol
Quoting 30. hydrus:


that area will or has too go ne ward up an out over cuba its the only window its a interesting area for watching all the same
Quoting 43. Patrap:




Too bad that isn't a storm. That would give a new definition of a "pinhole" eye (the one yellow pixel in the last frame of the loop located in the center of the convection)
51. IDTH
Wow models hopped onto this idea quick once everyone started discussing it in the previous blog entry. Coincidence? I'm really amazed with how smart a lot of the members of this blog are.

I also have started to notice something. Back in the 2000s the gulf and Florida was the main area of concern in terms of numbers and it seems ever since we switched into the 2010s we've been seeing a heightened risk along the east coast and someone pointed out the record warm water off the coast. During the 2000s I noticed the east coast wasn't even remotely as warm as it is now and I can't help but shake something is coming (speculation). Sandy was freaky, Joaquin would've been the worst scenario for the east coast, and Irene could've been so much worse as well, and lets not forget Katia was steered away thanks to Lee.

Call me crazy or paranoid, but I just can't shake this feeling that something is coming.
When we get into July we will have to start watching the deep tropics.
Quoting 51. IDTH:

Wow models hopped onto this idea quick once everyone started discussing it in the previous blog entry. Coincidence? I'm really amazed with how smart a lot of the members of this blog are.

I also have started to notice something. Back in the 2000s the gulf and Florida was the main area of concern in terms of numbers and it seems ever since we switched into the 2010s we've been seeing a heightened risk along the east coast and someone pointed out the record warm water off the coast. During the 2000s I noticed the east coast wasn't even remotely as warm as it is now and I can't help but shake something is coming (speculation). Sandy was freaky, Joaquin would've been the worst scenario for the east coast, and Irene could've been so much worse as well, and lets not forget Katia was steered away thanks to Lee.

Call me crazy or paranoid, but I just can't shake this feeling that something is coming.


Something is always coming . . . just hoping its certain numbers in the next Powerball drawing.
I'm about to get one of the trailing lines here in the Fort Myers area.
The AOI actually has a likely lane to S FL where there is little shear and conductive for development.
RIP Colin...... onto TD Dillard.....
Where is Colin? Was it torn apart by upper atmospheric winds, and scooted out to sea in quick time? Saw video on the Weather Underground homepage where winds from Colin took out a transformer somewhere in Florida.
Quoting 51. IDTH:

Wow models hopped onto this idea quick once everyone started discussing it in the previous blog entry. Coincidence? I'm really amazed with how smart a lot of the members of this blog are.

I also have started to notice something. Back in the 2000s the gulf and Florida was the main area of concern in terms of numbers and it seems ever since we switched into the 2010s we've been seeing a heightened risk along the east coast and someone pointed out the record warm water off the coast. During the 2000s I noticed the east coast wasn't even remotely as warm as it is now and I can't help but shake something is coming (speculation). Sandy was freaky, Joaquin would've been the worst scenario for the east coast, and Irene could've been so much worse as well, and lets not forget Katia was steered away thanks to Lee.

Call me crazy or paranoid, but I just can't shake this feeling that something is coming.


Joaquin made me save gallon jugs and freeze meat, that would've been bad. I remember Dr. Masters saying on twc he felt the euro would win out vs the othe rmodels, had a feeling I would go to bed and see the models switch. Thankfully it did.
Quoting 57. franckinator:

Where is Colin? Was it torn apart by upper atmospheric winds, and scooted out to sea in quick time? Saw video on the Weather Underground homepage where winds from Colin took out a transformer somewhere in Florida.
in the books its over
it just wont go away!
Quoting 34. weathermanwannabe:

NHC dissipates the current E-Pac depression over land and there is a hostile shear environment in the Gulf at this point just to the North of the Yucatan Channel area as well: would not hold my breath on potential development in the Gulf at this point in the short-term.





What are the forecast models seeing? I'm on my phone and having issues with seeing it.
The Isthmus of Tehuantepeche is the only easy way for a low to get from the Pacific to the GOM. Everywhere else is high mountains that usually destroy most systems very quickly.
there does seem to be a small channel there doesnt it...
there is also another wave in the eastern carib which might add some fuel to the fire
would sure be nice for us to get another splash
Quoting 55. Camerooski:

The AOI actually has a likely lane to S FL where there is little shear and conductive for development.

our air conditioner low over western Quebec



ice melting at a good pace over James/Hudson bay now
Quoting 64. 19N81W:

there does seem to be a small channel there doesnt it...
there is also another wave in the eastern carib which might add some fuel to the fire
would sure be nice for us to get another splash


A lot of that "shear" is just remnants of Colin. Should be better in a day
Quoting 62. Hurricanes101:

What are the forecast models seeing? I'm on my phone and having issues with seeing it.

Possible development of a system near the Yucatan
Quoting 17. win1gamegiantsplease:



Colin's energy is now mostly due to baroclinic processes, in this case the colder air mass behind the approaching cold front instead of condensation of heat as tropical lows do. Determined in part by its frontal look and elongated center as Bob described.



Not according to T.I.

Duval county is Jacksonville, Fl.
Quoting 68. Loduck:

Duval county is Jacksonville, Fl.


I know this. The rapper T.I. just refers to it as 'Duval' in his songs if he mentions it.
Quoting 36. Weathergirlklein:



Idk where you are at, Keep, but I kinda wish I was there right now. Temp is 94 feels like 110, and it was only supposed to hit 89 today. Humidity is awful after Colin here, stepped outside to get the mail and felt like I had been slapped in the face with a wet rag that then stuck lol.
I am in the lower central grt lakes Toronto Scarborough ontario
Nothing on 2PM Atlantic TWO
Quoting 56. NRAamy:

RIP Colin...... onto TD Dillard.....


Well you sure a sight for sore eyes
Quoting 62. Hurricanes101:

What are the forecast models seeing? I'm on my phone and having issues with seeing it.


Nothing
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. One closed 1014mb isobar does not make a tropical depression or storm. Just a sheared disturbance likely to bring more rain to Florida.
Goodbye Colin, now onto my biggest event since April snow, nice little severe weather day in New England. Past that I have seen this output twice now on the GFS which for me means beach day. img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
On the 12Z wind that is fairly gusty along the shore so I guess something to watch though as we know, especially up here anything past 3 days out is kinda.... well... just that.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
The rain amounts for that period could be heavy IF this were to occur. Not a tropical system by any stretch of the imagination, though I try. Sorta... half on topic here lol
Wahhhtt???

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
130 PM EDT Tuesday Jun 7 2016

Short term [tonight through thursday]...

The axis of an upper level trough will be just east of the local
region tonight and will move slowly east through Thursday. At the
surface, as high pressure centered over the Missouri Valley slides
slowly eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys on Thursday,
low level winds will gradually veer from north to east. Meanwhile,
the latest GFS and Euro, show abundant tropical moisture lifting
northward across the far eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula
during this period. The 00z GFS closes off a low near the western
tip of Cuba tonight and lifts this feature northward to a position
just over 100 miles west of Tampa by late Thursday. This will
certainly need to be monitored closely for possible impacts to the
local region for the upcoming weekend.
For now, the forecast is
dry with above seasonal Max temperatures and near to slightly
below minimum temps.
Quoting 70. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I am in the lower central grt lakes Toronto Scarborough ontario


Well, you're on the opposite end of the country from me lol. FL here, and I swear the ocean is in the atmosphere right now. Doesn't seem possible for the humidity to be as high as it is on a regular basis here. Nice cool winds during Colin, but now that he's left it just got about twice as muggy as it was before he hit. Blahhh......
Quoting 73. VAbeachhurricanes:



Nothing
Quoting 62. Hurricanes101:

What are the forecast models seeing? I'm on my phone and having issues with seeing it.
Many of the Models are hinting at some type of tropical development near the Yucatan Peninsula,then moving it to South Florida, and because of the blocking stationary front around Naples or Ft. Myers,whatever forms can't go North of this front.
Euro brings the low from the Pacific into the GOM. Waiting to see if anything comes of it.
At 72 hours the low disappears? See if it comes back. Most likely moved inland and dissipated.
"Early Monday, Ronald P. Milligan, 74, stopped by a park in St. Petersburg where authorities planned to distribute sandbags because the ditch in front of his home had filled during the previous evening's rain.
"If last night was a "no storm" - and the water was almost up to the hump in my yard - I'm worried," Milligan said, motioning to about knee level. He's lived in Florida since the late 1970s and hasn't ever prepared for a storm this early. "Tropical Storm Colin (...) - LA Times, yesterday. See also : RSOE-EDIS.

That does not sound good (when thinkin of future events). Sorry for the glass half-empty type of feeling ;-) It's good Colin didn't turn into a hurricane or a disaster much larger in scale.
Quoting 69. win1gamegiantsplease:



I know this. The rapper T.I. just refers to it as 'Duval' in his songs if he mentions it.
Oh, ok...never even heard of rapper TI. Sometimes people get confused because the whole of Duval county is Jacksonville. Idk if any other county in Fl is like that.
Quoting 76. opal92nwf:

Wahhhtt???

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
130 PM EDT Tuesday Jun 7 2016

Short term [tonight through thursday]...

The axis of an upper level trough will be just east of the local
region tonight and will move slowly east through Thursday. At the
surface, as high pressure centered over the Missouri Valley slides
slowly eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys on Thursday,
low level winds will gradually veer from north to east. Meanwhile,
the latest GFS and Euro, show abundant tropical moisture lifting
northward across the far eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula
during this period. The 00z GFS closes off a low near the western
tip of Cuba tonight and lifts this feature northward to a position
just over 100 miles west of Tampa by late Thursday. This will
certainly need to be monitored closely for possible impacts to the
local region for the upcoming weekend.
For now, the forecast is
dry with above seasonal Max temperatures and near to slightly
below minimum temps.


More rain, whatevs, couldn't care less for my area. Temps being at or slightly above normal, no thank you! It's hot enough here as it is!
Quoting 76. opal92nwf:

Wahhhtt???

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
130 PM EDT Tuesday Jun 7 2016

Short term [tonight through thursday]...

The axis of an upper level trough will be just east of the local
region tonight and will move slowly east through Thursday. At the
surface, as high pressure centered over the Missouri Valley slides
slowly eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys on Thursday,
low level winds will gradually veer from north to east. Meanwhile,
the latest GFS and Euro, show abundant tropical moisture lifting
northward across the far eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula
during this period. The 00z GFS closes off a low near the western
tip of Cuba tonight and lifts this feature northward to a position
just over 100 miles west of Tampa by late Thursday. This will
certainly need to be monitored closely for possible impacts to the
local region for the upcoming weekend.
For now, the forecast is
dry with above seasonal Max temperatures and near to slightly
below minimum temps.
Don't understand this statement?,there is a blocking front stationary about Naples or Ft. Myers that will be there at least for the next couple or days or more.Anything that forms in the Yucatan area have to ride the window or channel between the high to the East and the Front to the North,whatever this becomes?, should not go North of Naples-Ft. Myers,this is common sense and looking at the different maps posted here in this blog,any other suggestions members??.
Quoting 77. Weathergirlklein:



Well, you're on the opposite end of the country from me lol. FL here, and I swear the ocean is in the atmosphere right now. Doesn't seem possible for the humidity to be as high as it is on a regular basis here. Nice cool winds during Colin, but now that he's left it just got about twice as muggy as it was before he hit. Blahhh......


It's like breathing soup outside right now. Thanks Colin (not).
Quoting 85. flbeachgirl:



It's like breathing soup outside right now. Thanks Colin (not).


Having lived all my life in Florida (well until relatively recently) I never understood what people meant about the "wall of water" in Florida. Until I took a two-week trip to the Andes (Bogota, Colombia). When i returned . . . . wow!

(And no, its not what anyone is thinking . . . back then that would have been Medellin or Cali).
Quoting 84. Hurricane1956:

Don't understand this statement?,there is a blocking front stationary about Naples or Ft. Myers that will be there at least for the next couple or days or more.Anything that forms in the Yucatan area have to ride the window or channel between the high to the East and the Front to the North,whatever this becomes?, should not go North of Naples-Ft. Myers,this is common sense and looking at the different maps posted here in this blog,any other suggestions members??.

The steering current maps people have been posting include the remnants of Colin and the front that moved it along. The front has not moved south and is currently stationary over N Florida. Hence the concern here. Either way this will not be a big storm. More like a Depression.
Quoting 82. Loduck:

Oh, ok...never even heard of rapper TI. Sometimes people get confused because the whole of Duval county is Jacksonville. Idk if any other county in Fl is like that.


In 1968, the local governments of Jacksonville and Duval merged into a single government. Jacksonville is smaller than Duval, since other cities and towns also exist within Duval. There are no other such entities in Florida, that I have ever heard of.

Jax native.
Quoting 82. Loduck:

Oh, ok...never even heard of rapper TI. Sometimes people get confused because the whole of Duval county is Jacksonville. Idk if any other county in Fl is like that.


Miami-Dade in name only.
Quoting 78. Hurricane1956:

Many of the Models are hinting at some type of tropical development near the Yucatan Peninsula,then moving it to South Florida, and because of the blocking stationary front around Naples or Ft. Myers,whatever forms can't go North of this front.


Unless the front lifts northward or more likely washes out.
Quoting 88. JRnOldsmar:



In 1968, the local governments of Jacksonville and Duval merged into a single government. Jacksonville is smaller than Duval, since other cities and towns also exist within Duval. There are no other such entities in Florida, that I have ever heard of.

Jax native.

Miami-Dade is a 2 tier system. Large city type services are provided by the county whereas smaller issues are handled by local municipalities. For example Miami-Dade doesnt have a Sheriff. It has a metro-police. In areas that a municipality doesn't exist (Kendall for example) the county is both the city and the county. This link does a better job than I could. Link
Quoting 89. daddyjames:



Miami-Dade in name only.


Correct. In 1997, Dade County just changed it's name to Miami-Dade. Just a name change.
Quoting 91. gator23:


Miami-Dade is a 2 tier system. Large city type services are provided by the county whereas smaller issues are handled by local municipalities. For example Miami-Dade doesnt have a Sheriff. It has a metro-police. In areas that a municipality doesn't exist (Kendall for example) the county is both the city and the county. This link does a better job than I could. Link


Thanks for the additional clarification, gator23.
Quoting 91. gator23:


Miami-Dade is a 2 tier system. Large city type services are provided by the county whereas smaller issues are handled by local municipalities. For example Miami-Dade doesnt have a Sheriff. It has a metro-police. In areas that a municipality doesn't exist (Kendall for example) the county is both the city and the county. This link does a better job than I could. Link


I believe Miami-Dade County in the 1950's also signed a unique home rule charter. This gives it autonomy in certain decisions other counties in FL do not have.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 2h2 hours ago
Need to wait and see what the June/July climate values are b4 raising forecast! Quiet EPac/WPac is interesting tho
No comment on potential development in the Gulf again except to note that it is another swirl-a-rama out there at present but things could change if another low develops than can pull in some of the available moisture, and convection, from the E-Pac and Yucatan areas.


Ironically - if you type in Duval, Florida, "Name change" - you get this:

Woman charged in twin sister's death
Maui News-1 hour ago

Apparently they are from Florida, changed their last name to Duval, and were having a little disagreement . . . . the twin charged drove a car off a cliff.
Quoting 78. Hurricane1956:

Many of the Models are hinting at some type of tropical development near the Yucatan Peninsula,then moving it to South Florida, and because of the blocking stationary front around Naples or Ft. Myers,whatever forms can't go North of this front.


12Z GFS takes a weak low up the Gulf Coast of FL. Coming ashore between Tampa and Cedar Key. Stalls it, elongates it, and reforms it off the North Central Florida coast.
If ever you are down, and think that things can't get worse, think again . . . .



Gives a new meaning to Jellyfish.
www.co2.earth
Atmospheric CO2

May 2016

407.70
parts per million (ppm)

Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (NOAA-ESRL)

Preliminary data released June 6, 2016
Quoting 96. weathermanwannabe:

No comment on potential development in the Gulf again except to note that it is another swirl-a-rama out there at present but things could change if another low develops than can pull in some of the available moisture, and convection, from the E-Pac and Yucatan areas.

Modest vorticity at 850, 700, 500mbs pretty much stacked on top of each other and shear 10 to at most 20 kts and decreasing over the Yucatan Channel.
AXNT20 KNHC 071752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Colin has become a post tropical cyclone as of 07/15 UTC. The
system is centered near 34.0N 77.0W, or about 104 nm southwest
of Cape Hatteras. Colin is moving northeast at about 30 kt.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 52 kt with higher
gusts, although the system's strongest winds and heaviest rains
are located over water well southeast of the center between 73W-
79W. Please see latest NHC intermediate public advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the east Tropical Atlantic with axis that
extends from 10N29W to 04N29W, west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS
model streamlines and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the
SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No significant convection
is related to this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean with axis
extending from 19N65W to 10N67W, moving west-northwest 10 to 15
kt over the past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a weak 700
mb trough based on GFS model streamlines and a broad surge of
moisture is depicted on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity
of the wave between 60W-70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 10N15W to east of the tropical wave near 06N26W.
The ITCZ begins west of the wave near 06N31W to 06N55W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails within 100 nm to the
north of the ITCZ. Isolated convection is observed within 50
nm on either side of the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level anticyclone centered over the northwest Caribbean
extends across the Gulf waters. At the surface...the only area
with convection is the eastern portion of the basin where a
surface trough extends from 26N90W to 28N82W. This feature is
related with the now Post-Tropical Cyclone Colin, which is
centered over the western Atlantic north of our area of
discussion. Scattered moderate convection is observed along and
south of this trough affecting the waters east of 86W.
Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate northerly flow
north of the trough while a moderate to fresh southwesterly flow
prevails south of the trough. Light and variable winds prevail
elsewhere. Expect during the next 24 hours for the surface
trough to continue moving south with convection. Winds and seas
will decrease across the eastern Gulf as Colin accelerates
northeast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level ridge is anchored over northwestern Caribbean
extending across the basin mainly west of 80W and into the Gulf
of Mexico and west Atlantic. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are observed across the western portion of the
basin and affecting the west of Cuba between 82W-87W. To
the east...a tropical wave is enhancing convection across the
eastern Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for
details. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored over the central Atlantic. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with
higher winds prevailing across the south-central waters north of
Colombia where the pressure gradient is stronger. Expect during
the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west
with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level low is moving across the island supporting
isolated showers at this time. A tropical wave is approaching
from the east during the next 24 hours. With this, scattered
moderate convection will prevail across the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The primary concern at this time is Colin, currently located
east of the South Carolina coast. With this, scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail across the west
Atlantic mainly north of 28N between 72W-80W with fresh to
strong southwest winds and seas to 12 ft. Please refer to the
Special Features section above for details. A surface ridge
prevails across most of the basin anchored by a stationary 1021
mb high centered near 25N58W. A surface low was analyzed near
30N40W with surface trough extending from the low to 26N48W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 27N-30N between 34W-39W.
Another surface high is centered to the east of the low near
24N28W. A tropical wave is moving west across the eastern
Atlantic. Please see the section above for details. Expect
during the next 24 hours for Colin to continue to accelerate
northeast away from our area. The strong winds and large seas
will persist across the west waters.

For additional information please visit
www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA


Quoting 99. daddyjames:

If ever you are down, and think that things can't get worse, think again . . . .




Lol dumb fish
Quoting 103. VAbeachhurricanes:



Lol dumb fish


Maybe a smart fish? "He'll never find me in here"
And just in case you were wondering, yes the fish is actually in the Jellyfish.

I'm thinking this could be a new meme for the Tampa Shield.

From Houston-Galveston NWS

@109
tracks seem kind of schizophrenic at this time ...lol
Mark Sudduth's opinion on the tropics fo the next 10 days
While it may seem like we are off to a record-setting pace, I think things will calm down after Colin. We might see something try to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico, almost in to the Bay of Campeche, during the next 10 days, but after that, the season will likely go in to a lull until the main event in August, September and October.
Quoting 111. justmehouston:

@109
tracks seem kind of schizophrenic at this time ...lol


Weak steering presents that way usually.

Also, note the late hours at the end lines. Thats another example of "reading" the models.

There is always a tell there for the experienced.


Quoting 85. flbeachgirl:



It's like breathing soup outside right now. Thanks Colin (not).


Ikr. So glad I don't have to be outside in this. Final rain total for Colin for me is about 3.8 inches, most of which is from Monday.
115. vis0
Post on last blogbyte aniGIF of 1 area of interest and bit of COLINs and xBonnie.(once the page loads it takes one to the comment no need to bother with scrolling : - P... Bonnie seems to be trying to incarnate into a west Africa TD? If xBonnie makes it to that area and no trough picks xBonnie up. If picked up those in Spain, France keep eye open for enhanced rain. )
Quoting 113. Patrap:



Weak steering presents that way usually.

Also, note the late hours at the end lines. Thats another example of "reading" the models.

There is always a tell there for the experienced




Interesting ...never paid much attention to the hours ...I'll have to read up about how to interpret that

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

click image for loop


Quoting 113. Patrap:



Weak steering presents that way usually.

Also, note the late hours at the end lines. Thats another example of "reading" the models.

There is always a tell there for the experienced.





It's a tale tell sign, that whatever is going to happen is going to be slow long process and out there for a longgggg time ;)
Looking at the GOM visible Satelllite,it seems to be a spin on the South of Pinar Del Rio (or the most western part of Cuba).
I has been following the different satellite since early this morning and convention in this area has been steadily increasing!!,something that we have to watch or at the minimum to keep the blog alive for a couple of days.
From 1548 UTC earlier
IR/WV/Microwave RGB (IR [R], WV [G], MI89 [B])


"But was Hurricane Alex really a 2016 event? One could make a case that extremely early tropical cyclones such as Alex are more closely tied to the previous year’s activity."

Reading the above line in the blog heading I think that the line has to be drawn somewhere.
The year could be commenced on the Solstice, hence about the 21st of December, or as it is now but bending the rules is of little use or in fact significant.
Anything which forms before the year start date, either the solstice or the 1st of January should be included in the previous year and everything that forms to a "name" level after the appointed dates in the current year.
Simple.
Just from what those models depict, this is classic type system that never does anything and pulses up and down and this blog pulls it's hair out because it's not blowing up into cat 4-5 monster.
There is a corridor of moisture running between south of Tampa Bay and the center of the Bahamas.
It seems that is the way the currents are running now, just following Colin movement (as it tail).
Quoting 112. washingtonian115:

Mark Sudduth's opinion on the tropics fo the next 10 days
While it may seem like we are off to a record-setting pace, I think things will calm down after Colin. We might see something try to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico, almost in to the Bay of Campeche, during the next 10 days, but after that, the season will likely go in to a lull until the main event in August, September and October.

I agree with a lull for the rest of this month, but I don't think it will last excessively long. It's looking like a new MJO event will begin in the Indian Ocean in two weeks or so, meaning it should reach the Atlantic some time in early July. With a continuation of our active wave train and a lower shear regime, I don't think July will be as dead this season as it has been in years past.
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
247 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016


Excerpt:

A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD...LIKELY MERGING WITH THE SURFACE TROUGHING RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON WED...AND THEN CONTINUING TO DRIFT NORTHWARD TO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF ON THU. MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT TO CLOSE OFF THIS TROUGH INTO A SURFACE LOW DURING THIS 2 TO 3 DAY TIME PERIOD...THEREFORE RESULTING IN ONLY A MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE MID RANGE TIME FRAME. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO A LOW...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE SE GULF THROUGH THU.
Total rainfall from TS Colin here at my location in Winter Park was 4.49", including Sunday, where rainfall of 1.68" was likely indirectly related to Colin. Yesterday and this morning we picked up 2.81", fairly close to model predictions. We did end up in the wind field yesterday and last night. Between 2-3am this morning, winds were 20-29mph, gusting to at least 35 mph.
Quoting 111. justmehouston:

@109
tracks seem kind of schizophrenic at this time ...lol


Lol well they usually do near the beginning of the storm's development, plus I think in this case there are a million different things the storm can do depending on where on land it goes with all the mountains, how bad the shear is in the GOM if it makes it there, whether or not it makes it to the GOM, etc....
Pretty rotten weather in England.

Luton Airport border chaos as thunderstorm brings down computer system for checking passports

The border chaos came as flash floods and lightning strikes caused chaos across the UK as a month's worth of rain fell in just an hour.

UK weather: Flash floods cause chaos as month's rain falls in an hour and father and son critically ill after lightning strike

Houston, we have a problem. Can you give them any advice?
This hasn't happened in so long that hardly anyone remembers or just wasn't around....

.
I can see the image in #133.
Quoting 133. RitaEvac:

This hasn't happened in so long that hardly anyone remembers or just wasn't around....




I cant until I put it into a new window, weird.
xx/xx/xx


seems maybe front is stalling with a eastern gulf breeze flowing over coastal texas causing some coastal showers to form
upper flow over central area and humid tropical air being drawn up and over the wet fla state causing high heat indexes maybe more rain is on tap fla
as system in nw carb pumps up moisture over west cuba south fla regions ne ward
I can't see it, using Chrome
Quoting 134. RitaEvac:

damn blog I tell ya, using an image from the same site on wunderground and can't even post the image
delete the s at the end of https should be http then image will post pain yes but it works
Quoting 132. daddyjames:

Pretty rotten weather in England.

Luton Airport border chaos as thunderstorm brings down computer system for checking passports

The border chaos came as flash floods and lightning strikes caused chaos across the UK as a month%u2019s worth of rain fell in just an hour.

UK weather: Flash floods cause chaos as month's rain falls in an hour and father and son critically ill after lightning strike

Houston, we have a problem. Can you give them any advice?
adapt
Quoting 139. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

delete the s at the end of https should be http then image will post pain yes but it works


did and I can't see it on my end, see post 136
Quoting 138. RitaEvac:

I can't see it, using Chrome


I'm using Chrome and can see it fine.
Quoting 141. RitaEvac:



did and I can't see it on my end, see post 136
I can see both 136 and first post ya made just fine must be chrome on your end refresh it maybe
Quoting 138. RitaEvac:

I can't see it, using Chrome


I can see it ...and dont want to see a repeat of it, not that I saw it the first time
Quoting 130. Patrap:






Ok, it's probably just me, but the storm seems to be rotating anti-cyclonically...might just be the blob trying to get itself together.
Quoting 119. Hurricane1956:

Looking at the GOM visible Satelllite,it seems to be a spin on the South of Pinar Del Rio (or the most western part of Cuba).
I has been following the different satellite since early this morning and convention in this area has been steadily increasing!!,something that we have to watch or at the minimum to keep the blog alive for a couple of days.

I'm all for that! (keeping the blog alive)
Quoting 143. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I can see both 136 and first post ya made just fine must be chrome on your end refresh it maybe


damn me, cleared cache and that resolved it. But I will say this, I can't use this blog hardly from home because this site does not handle windows 10 with Firefox well at all. That's why I don't get on in the evenings hardly. Use windows 7 Chrome at work as of now
Quoting 147. RitaEvac:



damn me, cleared cache and that resolved it. But I will say this, I can't use this blog hardly from home because this site does not handle windows 10 with Firefox well at all. That's why I don't get on in the evenings hardly. Use windows 7 Chrome at work as of now


Why not use Chrome on Windows 10? I am. Have no problems.
Quoting 147. RitaEvac:



damn me, cleared cache and that resolved it. But I will say this, I can't use this blog hardly from home because this site does not handle windows 10 with Firefox well at all. That's why I don't get on in the evenings hardly. Use windows 7 Chrome at work as of now

I have windows 10 and had no problems. Sorry you having so many problems :(
I have win 10 using edge browser no issues except having to remember to remove that extra s all the time other than that good and fast
Quoting 145. Weathergirlklein:



Ok, it's probably just me, but the storm seems to be rotating anti-cyclonically...might just be the blob trying to get itself together.


Could be just the outflow from the collapsing convection causing it to appear that way in the IR loop. Seems as if sheer affecting the system is changing direction.

.
Quoting 148. daddyjames:



Why not use Chrome on Windows 10? I am. Have no problems.


like Firefox much better than Chrome, might end up having to do it though
and I have 9 to 10 tabs open plus my world of warships online game as well at the same time
Quoting 151. daddyjames:



Could be just the outflow from the collapsing convection causing it to appear that way in the IR loop. Seems as if sheer affecting the system is changing direction.

.
could be a land effect too or convective collapse feedback
Quoting 126. Patrap:




Rain rain go away!
Quoting 151. daddyjames:



Could be just the outflow from the collapsing convection causing it to appear that way in the IR loop. Seems as if sheer affecting the system is changing direction.

.


Quoting 154. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

could be a land effect too or convective collapse feedback


Thanks guys!
Apologies for the issue with viewing images from the last two blog posts on Chrome. All should be fine now. You may encounter similar issues on posts that are more than a month or so old. We're working on it--but in the meantime, those posts should work fine on any other browser. Thanks for your patience.
Quoting 133. RitaEvac:

This hasn't happened in so long that hardly anyone remembers or just wasn't around....




Yea that sucker predates me over 30 years. The landfall intensity of that at landfall was changed to a 3 last year I think too. Not that it matters much. Andrew's track on the website still says 4 as well.
Quoting 157. BobHenson:

Apologies for the issue with viewing images from the last two blog posts on Chrome. All should be fine now. You may encounter similar issues on posts that are more than a month or so old. We're working on it--but in the meantime, those posts should work fine on any other browser. Thanks for your patience.


And here i was, thinking Chrome was the best browser ever.

Oh, and, Colin is dead.


BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016

...POST-TROPICAL COLIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 72.2W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Colin
was located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 72.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible tonight, but gradual weakening
is expected to begin on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
primarily to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

$$
Forecaster Brown

Victory Screech!!!
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 3h3 hours ago Moraga, CA
The Northwest Pacific TC drought has now reached 176 days - 5th longest on record (since 1950) - longest is 198 days
Quoting 153. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

and I have 9 to 10 tabs open plus my world of warships online game as well at the same time


If I have more than 5 tabs running script going at once, oh you better believe that's a crash
Quoting 159. 62901IL:



And here i was, thinking Chrome was the best browser ever.

Oh, and, Colin is dead.


BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016

...POST-TROPICAL COLIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 72.2W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Colin
was located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 72.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible tonight, but gradual weakening
is expected to begin on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
primarily to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

$$
Forecaster Brown

Victory Screech!!!



Your late with a the news has a that is hold news


appears to be a spin NE of Roatan, Honduras
Wow in that severe weather in the UK, this was spotted in Scotland

Scotland weather: Twister in Bonnyrigg and house struck by lightning as torrential rain follows hottest day of the year – Scottish Daily Record



Contrary to what we here like to believe, OK is not the tornado capital of the world . . .

England is tornado capital of the world! More twisters per square mile than other nation

This may be an example of an analysis somewhat biased as they used the entire US, and not the area of tornado-prone regions of the US.

On average England is hit by about 34 tornadoes a year – which works out at 2.2 per 10,000km sq.

While they may be more commonly associated with the US, in films such as Twister or sweeping Dorothy from Kansas in The Wizard Of Oz, the large size of America means that its average number of tornadoes is just 1.3 per 10,000km sq each year.
Arctic Death Spiral – another record:
Average volume for May lowest ever at 20,991km³

Averages for May:
2007 23,078
2008 24,102
2009 23,851
2010 22,181
2011 21,108
2012 21,677
2013 21,839
2014 21,878
2015 23,000
2016 20,991


164. daddyjames

"Toto, we're not in Liverpool, anymore."
Quoting 163. stormpetrol:



appears to be a spin NE of Roatan, Honduras

Vorticity is far more robust than 6 hours ago.
Link
Quoting 157. BobHenson:

Apologies for the issue with viewing images from the last two blog posts on Chrome. All should be fine now. You may encounter similar issues on posts that are more than a month or so old. We're working on it--but in the meantime, those posts should work fine on any other browser. Thanks for your patience.


So, is that really Bob Hensen, or a programmer pretending to be Bob Hensen . . . . Hmm, a new conspiracy theory for us to toss back and forth?
Quoting 161. win1gamegiantsplease:



If I have more than 5 tabs running script going at once, oh you better believe that's a crash
I have a corsair gaming tower i7 core sapphire graphics and ram out the window that's just the main tower I also have a second lenovo tower not as expensive to run and view 36 of the building web cams all the time on a 31 inch screen also the game tower has a 31 inch screen as well
I use the game tower for the blog and my world of warships/ world of tanks games

in case anyone wants to know my user name on the WarGaming network is DoomBuggy
Quoting 166. RobertWC:

164. daddyjames

"Toto, we're not in Liverpool, anymore."


Somehow, "Eilidh and the Wizard of Oz" just does not have the same ring to it.
As expected remnants of NA snow cover retreating rapidly in the heat:

Sarat @ The ASI
On the main NHC page the storm updates have a graphic for "US Rainfall Potential". Those are updated along with the other products as a storm progresses, but unlike the others there seems to be no Graphical Archive kept. I wanted to go back and look at what that graph was last Sunday because I'm pretty sure its predictions ended up matching Mr. Henson's Figure 4 above. Does anyone know if maybe there really is an archive that's just beyond my peabrain ability to find?
Quoting 170. daddyjames:



Somehow, "Eilidh and the Wizard of Oz" just does not have the same ring to it.


But it makes a hell of a Broadway revival , Toto is a Corgi, Dorothy comes from Edinburgh. the wicked witch is Margaret Thatcher. It's writes itself.
Quoting 106. Patrap:

Mexican Mex-rad Radar loop

Looks like it picked the wrong spot to crossover....
Quoting 163. stormpetrol:



appears to be a spin NE of Roatan, Honduras
That's what said this morning and after a while and nobody commenting I thought that I was just seeing things *_*
Quoting 173. RobertWC:



But it makes a hell of a Broadway revival , Toto is a Corgi, Dorothy comes from Edinburgh. the wicked witch is Margaret Thatcher. It's writes itself.


the Wicked Witch of the West is not Thatcher....it's Merkel....

still waiting on TD Dillard.... any updates?
Quoting 169. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I have a corsair gaming tower i7 core sapphire graphics and ram out the window that's just the main tower I also have a second lenovo tower not as expensive to run and view 36 of the building web cams all the time on a 31 inch screen also the game tower has a 31 inch screen as well
I use the game tower for the blog and my world of warships/ world of tanks games

in case anyone wants to know my user name on the WarGaming network is DoomBuggy
Wow some serious computing going on up in he-ah! You must need to download more RAM all the time!
No one has made a comment in 20 minutes xD.That's how you know a tropical system is out of the picture.
‘We’ve never seen anything like this': Arctic sea ice hit a stunning new low in May

Link
Quoting 177. JNFlori30A:

Wow some serious computing going on up in he-ah! You must need to download more RAM all the time!

no I have exactly what I need before when I had the ibm tower it would freeze lockup only be able to have 3 or 4 tabs but I got tried of that and went all out I guess maybe about 3500 dollars worth to have what I needed and wanted now its good no issues everything runs with room for more if needed but the wife said that's it no more money unless something blows up that I already have and needs to be fixed or replaced
Quoting 158. win1gamegiantsplease:



Yea that sucker predates me over 30 years. The landfall intensity of that at landfall was changed to a 3 last year I think too. Not that it matters much. Andrew's track on the website still says 4 as well.


Pre-Dates me by 2 and half years. My mother tells the story that my father was required to stay to work the storm. (Lineman for the power company) So she stayed. At the last minute it became apparent that the storm was on a bullseye track for South East Texas. So she moved from the frame house she was in to the strongest structure in town, the fire station. At the last moment the storm turned a little and went east into Louisiana with the western eyewall passing though Orange about 20 miles to the east of Groves.

If it hadn't turned, the fire station would not have helped. Groves is about 6 feet above sea level and there was no sea wall at that time. (They started one after Carla in 1962. Carla was a huge storm like Ike and flooded a great deal of Groves even though it came ashore on the west end of Galveston Island 90 to 100 miles away.) When Ike came, Groves did not flood and actually fared well due to the sea wall. Across the river in Orange County Bridge City and such did not fare so well.
But here’s what the National Snow and Ice Data Center has to say about that:

Daily extents in May were also two to four weeks ahead of levels seen in 2012, which had the lowest September extent in the satellite record. The monthly average extent for May 2016 is more than one million square kilometers (386,000 square miles) below that observed in May 2012.
Quoting 178. washingtonian115:

No one hasn't made a comment in 20 minutes xD.That's how you know a tropical system is out of the picture.
early evening too wash lots just getting in and deciding what to have for dinner now so their will be a lull sorta speak while everyone eats and what not
Quoting 172. UrcaDeLima:

On the main NHC page the storm updates have a graphic for "US Rainfall Potential". Those are updated along with the other products as a storm progresses, but unlike the others there seems to be no Graphical Archive kept. I wanted to go back and look at what that graph was last Sunday because I'm pretty sure its predictions ended up matching Mr. Henson's Figure 4 above. Does anyone know if maybe there really is an archive that's just beyond my peabrain ability to find?


It is a WPC product and I don't see a webpage for archiving that image, however.....





Edit: There is also one from their twitter feed.... Link
Do more tropical systems contribute to or make worse the rapidly melting ice at the polar caps being that the heat from them is transferred there?
Quoting 175. Loduck:

That's what said this morning and after a while and nobody commenting I thought that I was just seeing things *_*

I spoke at length about it.
Quoting 184. nrtiwlnvragn:



It is a WPC product and I don't see a webpage for archiving that image, however.....




They have it in the current folder, it just is named

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/qpf/3_rainf all.gif (large version)
or
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/qpf/3_qpf.p ng (for the thumbnail version)

Edit: without the spaces, which seem to be inserted by the blog . . . tried deleting them twice.
I find it interesting that once these systems leave our coast , many of the viewers here stop watching them . We all understand the grand theory, heat from the tropics is exported to the poles. Given that the Arctic Sea Ice has fallin' out of bed. It would do us well to follow these heat engines to their ends . And not just exiting our shores.

Because what happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic.

See Texas, and Dr. Francis theory .

I had to rub my eyes after looking at the 'Today's Weather Events' page. There's a wildfire in Antarctica!?! Are we quite sure that the monitoring satellite is reliable?
Invest potential? Anti-cyclone and very low shear should allow for a low to develop. Could we get a surprise? Vort and deep convection have been on the increase today.
"There is an active fire near South Thule Island, , as detected by satellite with brightness of 404."
Hmm, yeah, what happens to Antarctica doesn't stay in Antarctica... There are wildfires in Antarctica wow ;-)
What happened there I wonder? Watson...?
192. WRook
Quoting 175. Loduck:

That's what said this morning and after a while and nobody commenting I thought that I was just seeing things *_*
That area had been noted, and discussed before you commented. It has had a fairly good mid level (I guess) spin all day that is buried in the convection. Doesn't appear to be any signs at surface though. Check the NHC loops you will see it near 85/20.
Quoting 185. Loduck:

Do more tropical systems contribute to or make worse the rapidly melting ice at the polar caps being that the heat from them is transferred there?


The "heat" transferred by the storms contributes, but pales in comparison with that from ocean currents and the atmosphere (radiative forcing).
Quoting 185. Loduck:

Do more tropical systems contribute to or make worse the rapidly melting ice at the polar caps being that the heat from them is transferred there?


The influence of ex-tropical systems reaching Antarctica is probably negligible, compared to recent changes in the activity of the polar jet stream, which is pulling warm air up to the Arctic, and contributing big time to the melt.

That said, the record 2012 Arctic Ocean sea ice minimum was greatly influenced by a large, unseasonal storm, which broke up the ice, but this was a baroclinic system.
Quoting 186. gator23:


I spoke at length about it.
Sorry my bad, I scrolled back through and found it. Needless to say I didn't sleep well because of the wind, thunder/lightening, and pouring rain last night.
Quoting 169. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I have a corsair gaming tower i7 core sapphire graphics and ram out the window that's just the main tower I also have a second lenovo tower not as expensive to run and view 36 of the building web cams all the time on a 31 inch screen also the game tower has a 31 inch screen as well
I use the game tower for the blog and my world of warships/ world of tanks games

in case anyone wants to know my user name on the WarGaming network is DoomBuggy
With those nice gamming towers, why only 31" monitors? 65" or larger should do the trick, tried it on our 120" theater screen, but was to much screen for gaming.
Quoting 194. yonzabam:



The influence of ex-tropical systems reaching the Arctic is probably negligible, compared to recent changes in the activity of the polar jet stream, which is pulling warm air up to the Arctic, and contributing big time to the melt.

That said, the record 2012 Arctic Ocean sea ice minimum was greatly influenced by a large, unseasonal storm, which broke up the ice, but this was a baroclinic system.


Seems to be a glitch. I edited my comment to change 'Antarctica' to 'the Arctic', and this post came up.
little cool shot for 7 am tomorrow morning wake up temps my area over lower lakes will see lows tonight into early morning mid to high forties

Quoting 70. Grifforzer:

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP012016
4:00 PM CDT June 7 2016
=============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression South Of Southwestern Mexico

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 15.5N 94.7W or 50 NM southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving northeast at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 16.0N 94.3W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)

Additional Information
================
Numerous very cold cloud tops from the tropical cyclone's deep convection are observed over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and southeastern Mexico, just north of the suspected center. No in-situ observations of the system's peak winds have been available, so an 1800Z Dvorak current intensity number of 2.0 from TAFB is the basis for maintaining the initial intensity of 30 knots.

It again has been challenging to locate the center of the tropical depression. The visible satellite imagery was suggestive of a tight low-level center a couple of hours ago, before moving underneath the southern edge of the convective overcast. Also a 1610Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass in the eastern semicircle of the tropical cyclone was consistent with a closed surface circulation center being located in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The initial motion is an uncertain 50/5 with the tropical cyclone being steered primarily by the low to mid-level flow on the south side of a deep-layered trough over central Mexico. The tropical depression should further slow its forward motion and either dissipate over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or just inland over southeastern Mexico. The official track forecast is near the TVCN ensemble mean and the previous advisory.

The tropical depression is being affected by moderate southerly vertical shear. This as well as proximity to the high terrain of southern Mexico and advection of dry air into its circulation is likely to prevent intensification into a tropical storm. All statistical and dynamical guidance show dissipation of the tropical cyclone within about a day, regardless of whether it remains over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or makes landfall. The official intensity forecast is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory.

The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over southern Mexico and western Guatemala, especially in areas of high terrain.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas, and 2 to 4 inches over the Mexican states of Tabasco and eastern Veracruz, and over western Guatemala. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in Oaxaca and Chiapas. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm force winds, primarily in gusts, are possible in the watch area today.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect for Mexico from Puerto Escondido to Salina Cruz
Quoting 196. NativeSun:

With those nice gamming towers, why only 31" monitors? 65" or larger should do the trick, tried it on our 120" theater screen, but was to much screen for gaming.
I like the 31 I tried it on the living room 61 inch flat but just to big
Vorticity and Convection Increased


Quoting 185. Loduck:

Do more tropical systems contribute to or make worse the rapidly melting ice at the polar caps being that the heat from them is transferred there?


See 188
And not just the poles, rain is moving up all the mountains. Snow is a dying event. And when it does fall is killed off earlier and earlier . And later and later . The one place is not occurring is the sea ice around Antarctica. Why, because fresh water is gushing off it , and fresh water freezes at 32F, and sea water freezes at 26F. And fresh water when it melts off Antarctica floats on the sea water.

That aint sea water freezing down south , it's the ice cap melting.
Quoting 197. yonzabam:



Seems to be a glitch. I edited my comment to change 'Antarctica' to 'the Arctic', and this post came up.


there may be some background goings on to prevent the "dingus" episode that occurred in a previous blog from occurring again . . .
Quoting 198. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

little cool shot for 7 am tomorrow morning wake up temps my area over lower lakes will see lows tonight into early morning mid to high forties




Is this a game of "Where's KEEP?" I can't see you in that rainbow of color.
Quoting 179. RobertWC:

‘We’ve never seen anything like this': Arctic sea ice hit a stunning new low in May

Link


As I recall the 5 day? monster storm that hit north of the Bering Strait in early August 2012 tore all the ice under it into tiny bits that readily melted (that surface/volume thing). Unless there's a storm just that bad this year too I would expect that the 2012 record will hold, though not by much. We'll see.
Quoting 204. daddyjames:



Is this a game of "Where's KEEP?" I can't see you in that rainbow of color.
that program needs to outline the map I see it but its not the best for most zoom it up to 220 percent and the outline is very faintly seen
jeez the same character predicting events said a month ago that the nw carib. was too dry to allow tropical development. just saying
Quoting 205. Xandtar:



As I recall the 5 day? monster storm that hit north of the in early Bering Strait early August 2012 tore all the ice under it into tiny bits that readily melted (that surface/volume thing). Unless there's a storm just that bad this year too I would expect that the 2012 record will hold, though not by much. We'll see.


Given the "monster" storms we've seen so far this year. I'll take that bet. By the way you'll want consider the Bering Strait in early August 2012, and May 2016.
Quoting 191. 999Ai2016:

"There is an active fire near South Thule Island, , as detected by satellite with brightness of 404."
Hmm, yeah, what happens to Antarctica doesn't stay in Antarctica... There are wildfires in Antarctica wow ;-)
What happened there I wonder? Watson...?


This might explain it. I suppose a satellite could confuse an erupting volcano with a wild fire. From Wiki:

"Thule Island lies close to Cook Island and Bellingshausen Island. It is thought that Thule and Cook may have been a larger single island in the past, and there is evidence for a submerged crater between the two. Steam from the summit crater lake and ash on the flank was reported in 1962. Volcanic heat keeps the crater on Thule Island free from ice. "
.
Quoting 204. daddyjames:



Is this a game of "Where's KEEP?" I can't see you in that rainbow of color.
is this better lol why do I feel like an eye doctor

From the Miami NWS...

Abundant moisture and convective activity associated with Colin is
still feeding bands of showers and a few thunderstorms across the
Florida peninsula. Meanwhile, a surface boundary is expected to
start moving down the sunshine state in the wake of Colin and
stall out across South Florida through the end of the work week.
latest model guidance suggests that this feature will combine
with the lingering moisture across the area and daytime heating
to keep showers and thunderstorm activity developing each day.
Also, latest long range models, GFS and ECMWF, show the boundary
likely lifting back into central Florida by the end of the work
week. Therefore, expect unsettled weather conditions to prevail
with scattered to numerous showers and storms each day.


Anyone who thinks the past is a lens to the future , needs a new telescope.
215. Tcwx2
Why do my comments only post about half of the time? How to fix?
Quoting 213. GeoffreyWPB:

From the Miami NWS...

Abundant moisture and convective activity associated with Colin is
still feeding bands of showers and a few thunderstorms across the
Florida peninsula. Meanwhile, a surface boundary is expected to
start moving down the sunshine state in the wake of Colin and
stall out across South Florida through the end of the work week.
latest model guidance suggests that this feature will combine
with the lingering moisture across the area and daytime heating
to keep showers and thunderstorm activity developing each day.
Also, latest long range models, GFS and ECMWF, show the boundary
likely lifting back into central Florida by the end of the work
week. Therefore, expect unsettled weather conditions to prevail
with scattered to numerous showers and storms each day.



Blob declaration?
HurricaneFan...Only Grothar can do that.
Quoting 178. washingtonian115:

No one has made a comment in 20 minutes xD.That's how you know a tropical system is out of the picture.
And the next week looks quiet in terms of activity for now. There still could be another storm before the month is gone.
A system such as Erika from 2015 is more likely to continue to strengthen moving westward this year, given the expected conditions," Kottlowski said. - Accuweather.
Quoting 215. Tcwx2:

Why do my comments only post about half of the time? How to fix?


Post twice as much lol
Any stronger confirmed winds than that 53mph sustained wind i mentioned earlier reported in Colin?
Quoting 176. NRAamy:



the Wicked Witch of the West is not Thatcher....it's Merkel....

still waiting on TD Dillard.... any updates?

Who's dillard?
223. IDTH
Well, the blog sure is full of life today.
Key West Radar

From the facebook page of WPTV-Channel 5 Met Tyler Mauldin...

How can someone new like me write good blog posts??


I think something might start brewing in NW Caribbean again!
Quoting 215. Tcwx2:

Why do my comments only post about half of the time? How to fix?


After you post a comment, refresh the window. It doesn't post instantly, takes a few seconds. Post, refresh, repeat lol
South Florida got nothing from TS Colin. I was expecting more, but we only got 0.15 inches of rain in Boca Raton (sad face). I hope SOuth FLorida gets hit by something this year.
Quoting 211. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

is this better lol why do I feel like an eye doctor




Ah, now I can make you out. ;)
Quoting 226. Adam2001:

How can someone new like me write good blog posts??


Read. A lot. Know the English language and how to use it. It takes a lot of practice and you can't expect it to happen overnight. Mr. Henson is a professional at what he does, and he's been doing it for a while, so his entries are stellar at conveying information in a way that is readily understandable.
232. IDTH
Quoting 227. stormpetrol:



I think something might start brewing in NW Caribbean again!

I would talk about that, but we don't have the model support.
Quoting 176. NRAamy:



the Wicked Witch of the West is not Thatcher....it's Merkel....




Women Who Rule The World: The 26 Most Powerful Female Political Leaders Of 2016

On this year’s FORBES list of the world’s 100 most powerful women, the top three most powerful are politicians: Germany’s Angela Merkel, U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.

Choke on it

Link
Quoting 232. IDTH:


I would talk about that, but we don't have the model support.
I remember Barry from 2013 not having any model support and yet managed to become a T.S.Maybe if this disturbance had more time over water I would be a bit more concerned but soon enough this thing will have a date with Florida.
Quoting 184. nrtiwlnvragn:



It is a WPC product and I don't see a webpage for archiving that image, however.....





Edit: There is also one from their twitter feed.... Link
Thank you very much. I know Twitter but don't use it and never thought to check there.
Quoting 215. Tcwx2:

Why do my comments only post about half of the time? How to fix?


Post twice as many.
237. IDTH
Quoting 234. washingtonian115:

I remember Barry from 2013 not having any model support and yet managed to become a T.S.Maybe if this disturbance had more time over water I would be a bit more concerned but soon enough this thing will have a date with Florida.

Time is what goes against this tail front. Shear is low and water temps are high but it just does not have enough time to develop. We'll probably go into a lull until July which I expect to be surprisingly more active than it usually is.
Quoting 209. yonzabam:


This might explain it. I suppose a satellite could confuse an erupting volcano with a wild fire. From Wiki:

"Thule Island lies close to Cook Island and Bellingshausen Island. It is thought that Thule and Cook may have been a larger single island in the past, and there is evidence for a submerged crater between the two. Steam from the summit crater lake and ash on the flank was reported in 1962. Volcanic heat keeps the crater on Thule Island free from ice. "


OK... I hope the area won't experience renewed activity, geothermally/volcanically speaking, as we wouldn't want more heat/aerosols to go into the melting process of all the seating/floating ice there...
After Colin became post tropical the comments have died down. lol
Quoting 237. IDTH:


Time is what goes against this tail front. Shear is low and water temps are high but it just does not have enough time to develop. We'll probably go into a lull until July which I expect to be surprisingly more active than it usually is.
I see something more along the lines of 2008 where we had 3 named storms for the month.
Quoting 239. Adam2001:

After Colin became post tropical the comments have died down. lol


It works opposite here, its the calm after the storm.
Quoting 211. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

is this better lol why do I feel like an eye doctor




Hey! I can see my house from here!
Quoting 239. Adam2001:

After Colin became post tropical the comments have died down. lol
normal once something has a chance things pickup and peak after system is named and again at land falling

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

click image for loop

It is telling that the NHC never issued a special statement for Colin making landfall in Florida. The center was really ill-defined even then.
www.co2.earth
Atmospheric CO2

May 2016

407.70
parts per million (ppm)

Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (NOAA-ESRL)


Preliminary data released June 6, 2016
Lot of strong convection popping to the north and east of TD1. Very active and with low shear, conducive SST's, could see even more cross basin transfer of energy. What a mess, would seem like a situation models may have a hard time initiating.
WunderPosters

Welcome to Weather Underground's posters library. Our meteorologists and designers teamed up to bring you the science behind some of the most spectacular weather phenomena in a simple and artistic way.

Hey! I just uploaded a blog post on Colin and the threat of severe weather, check it out!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016
700 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016

...DEPRESSION LOSING ORGANIZATION BUT STILL SOAKING SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND WESTERN GUATEMALA...


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was estimated near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 94.6 West.
The depression is drifting northeastward near 5 mph (8 km/h), and
little motion is anticipated during the next few hours. A turn
toward the north is expected later tonight or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
These winds are occurring over water to the east and southeast of
the center. The depression appears to be losing organization and the
tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate either over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec or just inland over southern Mexico by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
254. beell
Quoting 237. IDTH:


Time is what goes against this tail front. Shear is low and water temps are high but it just does not have enough time to develop. We'll probably go into a lull until July which I expect to be surprisingly more active than it usually is.


Mostly upper level support providing some ascent aloft. The area is between the southern stream upper jet across the Gulf and the western edge of a very narrow, very sharp upper level trough/shear axis to the east. The "chimney" is open. The frontal boundary is in there also.


06/07 18Z GFS 200 mb heights winds-12Z Wednesday.



You end up with this trough at the surface. Perhaps not enough of a trigger to deepen a surface low very much.



Beware the tail of the Hurricane, the next day

The Ol Sailor's term still applies today .




Probably heavy precips down there.
Collection of Highest Sustained Winds,

Surge, and Rainfall for Tropical Storm Colin:


METAR Winds:

KSRQ-SARASOTA FL 27.40 -82.55 1005.6 06/2353 170/033 Knots

Rainfall:

1 ENE 1 ENE SEMINOLE/PINELLAS/E5302 - 17.54 Inches
BRADENTON/MANATEE/AS056 - 10.08 Inches

Surge:

LEVY/G CEDAR KEY - Surge: 4.40 Feet Tide: 5.20 06/1854

PINELLAS/G CLEARWATER BEAC - Surge: Tide: 2.97 3.80 06/1506

PINELLAS/G SAINT PETERSBUR - Surge: 3.18 Tide: 3.10 06/1824

HILLSBOROUGH/G MCKAY BAY ENTRA Surge: 4.57 Tide 3.58 06/1654

Blog: Link
In other news.... Nothing is happening. Wait.... Donald Trump is winning today's primary!!!! Go Trump!
and we are winning the troll war

Before after of the storm in Sydney, Australia, showing massive coastal erosion. Look at the swimming pool...
More 'bout that : Collaroy Beach "loses 50 metres" after Australia storm - BBC News w/ video
Quoting 260. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

and we are winning the troll war


The word must be out, modshear little too high for even an idiot invest. Smooth sailing, nice to see the blog not get interrupted like it use to by trolls.
PWS temp now at 57.0 forecasts calls for a low of 46 tonight and before dawn tomorrow

tomorrows highs may not break 60 degrees

forecast calls for high of 59
Finally cooled off here in Pines. That tropical humid soup, 81F dew point, can stay away.
Convection with the 850mb vort that's been watched all day is moving too far northeast too fast for any development. I'm looking for convection to fire strongly just off of Belize tonight. Where the mid level vorticity is strongest. Think a low could develop there.
Quoting 229. birdsrock2016:

South Florida got nothing from TS Colin. I was expecting more, but we only got 0.15 inches of rain in Boca Raton (sad face). I hope SOuth FLorida gets hit by something this year.


We got some brief showers today during work in dade, and also in the evening in Broward, but nothing really while Colin was around. We definitely could use some rain, but I'd rather we not get hit by anything too crazy.
Quoting 266. unknowncomic:


comic NHC says that will be gone after midnight sometime


western cuba? only 5kts of shear too
Quoting 269. chrisdscane:



western cuba? only 5kts of shear too
brief window only if it follows the path of low shear
it is bubbling but speed
small low shear zone
land interaction
is gonna mess with it
so its just something
too look at an aoi I guess

Who here creates their own weather forecasts???
Now Colin is over.
3 names crossed off the list for 2016 by the 7th day of the official hurricane season.
Impressive start

Statistically, at this pace we are having 1 cyclone every 2 days (forget off season Alex forming but still count it as one). In 182 days (June 1 - Nov 30) we are ending up with 91 named storms. Lol.


Thanks for your predictions.
134 total
Quoting 273. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



It appears as if there is a weak tropical wave located farther north than I've seen so far this year. Maybe the ITCZ is starting to migrate northward.
Looks to me favorable MJO somewhere.

Still a fairly active pattern, even without anything organized....


the ice age continues over ne North America
in other news waters are warm to almost hot
over tropical zone regions of the Atlantic tropical basin

Quoting 278. BahaHurican:

Still a fairly active pattern, even without anything organized....
you look too be getting periods of rain and showers for a bit
Quoting 274. Adam2001:

Who here creates their own weather forecasts???


I do. Sometimes it pays to have that knowledge.
Quoting 275. MaxWeather:

Now Colin is over.
3 names crossed off the list for 2016 by the 7th day of the official hurricane season.
Impressive start

Statistically, at this pace we are having 1 cyclone every 2 days (forget off season Alex forming but still count it as one). In 182 days (June 1 - Nov 30) we are ending up with 91 named storms. Lol.


Thanks for your predictions.
134 total
well I hope what happens on the seventh day is true cause now the tropics will come too a rest for a bit
* Like a Slimy Taser, Electric Eels Can Leap Out and Zap Their Prey (with video) Don't slimy tase me bro! Would Dakster use this tool? I know KEEPER wants one for the trolls ;)

Watch Saturn Shine on Friday, No Equipment Required
Quoting 269. chrisdscane:



western cuba? only 5kts of shear too


Vort continues to Increase.



Shear:
Quoting 281. KoritheMan:

I do. Sometimes it pays to have that knowledge.
You're quite good at it too.
Quoting 283. BaltimoreBrian:

* Like a Slimy Taser, Electric Eels Can Leap Out and Zap Their Prey (with video) Don't slimy tase me bro! Would Dakster use this tool? ;) I know KEEPER wants one for the trolls ;)

Watch Saturn Shine on Friday, No Equipment Required


Quoting 279. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



the ice age continues over ne North America
in other news waters are warm to almost hot
over tropical zone regions of the Atlantic tropical basin


Is that the continental glacier advancing over Toronto? Man, that developed fast! The Ice Age cometh! :-)
Quoting 285. BaltimoreBrian:

You're quite good at it too.


I'm not gonna be bashful. I worked for this crap, lol.
Quoting 287. CaneFreeCR:

Is that the continental glacier advancing over Toronto? Man, that developed fast! The Ice Age cometh! :-)
lol
RGEM:


Quoting 273. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


That's the most moisture I've seen over the tropical Atlantic in sometime.We could finally be seeing a storm like Bill or Igor out there this year and with the low wind shear being projected along with the warm sst's it is certainly possible.
Quoting 285. BaltimoreBrian:

You're quite good at it too.

I'll buy ya a calendar, Brian. April Fools was two months ago.
GFS: 18 hrs



CMC: 24 hrs



Quoting 280. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

you look too be getting periods of rain and showers for a bit
Cooler and breezier now than even an hour ago... Should see some overnight showers...
Quoting 274. Adam2001:

Who here creates their own weather forecasts???


I do like 6hr to 1 day forecasts for my house lol
Quoting 281. KoritheMan:



I do. Sometimes it pays to have that knowledge.


And if you don't, no worries. Do what I do, throw darts at a map of the Caribbean and Gulf. There's your track. If this path ends up with the storm going from the Caribbean back due east; you may want to re-toss. Or boldly go against the NHC and all models. Plenty of time to Google crow recipes at the same time.
Notice how earlier today the majority of the squalls were screaming NE following Colin, however now the rain appears to be stationary. Colin no longer exerts an influence over the area.

Could TD One -E in the Pacific possibly cross over into the Atlantic and possibly brew something in the GOM?
Sorry, meant to say GOM instead of Atlantic Ocean.
Quoting 292. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'll buy ya a calendar, Brian. April Fools was two months ago.


Says the guy who still hasn't made any hurricane blogs this year despite promising everyone he would 100 times.

I wonder why? :)
Quoting 298. birdsrock2016:

Could TD One -E in the Pacific possibly cross over into the Atlantic and possibly brew something in the GOM?


The remnants will probably cross over, but the original projection of something forming from this was probably because it was supposed to cross the much narrower Isthmus of Tehuantepec, not ride the mountains of Guatemala. Odds are pretty low.
Quoting 296. DeepSeaRising:



And if you don't, no worries. Do what I do, throw darts at a map of the Caribbean and Gulf. There's your track. If this path ends up with the storm going from the Caribbean back due east; you may want to re-toss. Or boldly go against the NHC and all models. Plenty of time to Google crow recipes at the same time.


No kidding; it's fun seeing people go against the models and fail. :)
Quoting 300. KoritheMan:



Says the guy who still hasn't made any hurricane blogs this year despite promising everyone he would 100 times.

I wonder why? :)

I made no such promise on the blog this year. ;)

I do need to get into that now though. No excuses.
NHC make it really hard to ad lib. With model upgrades, for the most part, they are excellent. Joaquin and others still out there to do things they're not forecast to, but they are few and far apart. We'll see more storms confound, some tracks and intensity are still beyond us to accurately forecast.
Quoting 304. DeepSeaRising:

NHC make it really hard to ad lib. With model upgrades, for the most part, they are excellent. Joaquin and others still out there to do things they're not forecast to, but they are few and far apart. We'll see more storms confound, some tracks and intensity are still beyond us to accurately forecast.


There's definitely been a lot of progress with the models. There's not nearly as much synoptic variability as there used to be. This current unseasonable trough was predicted well in advance by many people, myself included. There's a little bit more variability in cyclone tracks, but that's because they are responding to small changes in the synoptics (which again, are not nearly as unpredictable as they used to be).

I don't think there's nearly as much uncertainty nowadays as people think. We still can't pin down specifics, but I think we can get a pretty good idea of the trough/ridge pattern 5-7 days from now, sometimes even 10.
Quoting 298. birdsrock2016:

Could TD One -E in the Pacific possibly cross over into the Atlantic and possibly brew something in the GOM?


Ancient alien theorists say yes.....
Quoting 283. BaltimoreBrian:

* Like a Slimy Taser, Electric Eels Can Leap Out and Zap Their Prey (with video) Don't slimy tase me bro! Would Dakster use this tool? ;) I know KEEPER wants one for the trolls ;)

Watch Saturn Shine on Friday, No Equipment Required


Electric eels zap people with videos? That is totally awesome!

Another large rotating mess...
Quoting 303. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I made no such promise on the blog this year. ;)

I do need to get into that now though. No excuses.


If it's a priority, you'll do it.
Greetings and Blessings to All!

Thanks for another great post Bob...However, Kindly note that the March 6th 1908 storm actually hit Antigua and St. Kitts. *(Basseterre is the Capital of St. Kitts), and its Not an actual island as the Wikipedia article incorrectly suggests...
Additionally, the disturbance in the North West Caribbean may bear watching out for later down if it continues to organize further. It appears to have some mid-low level spin to it already. It would be interesting to get the reports from the Isle of Pines/ Youth close to Cuba as well as the Western Tip of Cuba which it appears to be affecting currently...

A Blessed Night to All!


Seems to be a very slight window for development with the t-wave off of the NW tip of cuba
I have never seen this. A hurricane threat predicted for Florida near July 4th.


Link
Quoting 312. unknowncomic:

I have never seen this. A hurricane threat predicted for Florida near July 4th.


Link


LOL, maybe they know somethign we don't =)=)
Quoting 313. birdsrock2016:



LOL, maybe they know somethign we don't =)=)
A massive kelvin wave?
Quoting 314. unknowncomic:

A massive kelvin wave?


Or the atlas says that all the time that it is published, LOL
Quoting 307. daddyjames:

Electric eels zap people with videos? That is totally awesome!
I have a long-time blog friend who has a slow connection and I put the (with video) tag on so she won't click on them and get stuck.
Nice warm-up of the Atlantic Horeshoe. I must say, this is the best it's looked since 2013, despite that wretched cold pool. Will be interesting to see how that cold pool affects this year's hurricane season. Tropical Atlantic should continue to warm over the next 2 weeks, as a negative NAO pattern is already developing. Will these colder anomalies in the North Atlantic drive sinking air into the Tropical Atlantic that has dominated our basin for the past 3 seasons? All of this remains to be seen.
Quoting 316. BaltimoreBrian:

I have a long-time blog friend who has a slow connection and I put the (with video) tag on so she won't click on them and get stuck.


LOL - I still think its totally awesome! That arm looks totally real. I wonder if a graduate student drew the short straw, or that is what undergrads are required to do before doing any research in the lab?
May be a more active CV season than thought a couple weeks ago. SST's have recovered nicely and shear along the ITCZ is lowering. This is taking the shape of an above average season. We'll track at least three majors from the CV season easily. Florida better start sending love letters to Captain Trough, because he will be needed.
Quoting 291. washingtonian115:

That's the most moisture I've seen over the tropical Atlantic in sometime.We could finally be seeing a storm like Bill or Igor out there this year and with the low wind shear being projected along with the warm sst's it is certainly possible.

While the MDR won't be extremely favorable for storms this year, it won't be any less favorable than it was last year, which produced Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, TD9 and Ida in the region. SSTs should be about as warm, and if the tropical waves are strong we could see more MDR activity than most are suggesting.
Quoting 305. KoritheMan:



There's definitely been a lot of progress with the models. There's not nearly as much synoptic variability as there used to be. This current unseasonable trough was predicted well in advance by many people, myself included. There's a little bit more variability in cyclone tracks, but that's because they are responding to small changes in the synoptics (which again, are not nearly as unpredictable as they used to be).

I don't think there's nearly as much uncertainty nowadays as people think. We still can't pin down specifics, but I think we can get a pretty good idea of the trough/ridge pattern 5-7 days from now, sometimes even 10.


the euro and gfs have been great in 2016, cmc will be the cmc but our two horses have preformed well thus far.
Mexico, Central America :
Quoting 321. chrisdscane:



the euro and gfs have been great in 2016, cmc will be the cmc but our two horses have preformed well thus far.

ECMWF has been especially great, as it forecast both Alex and Colin more than a week in advance.
Darn, frost on the hot tub cover and the pws says 35 degrees, its cold here in northern michigan (brought all the veggies in, haven't planted them yet lol)
Quoting 321. chrisdscane:



the euro and gfs have been great in 2016, cmc will be the cmc but our two horses have preformed well thus far.


CMC is given flak a lot, but it's actually a decent model when it comes to resolving synoptics. It just sucks with TCs, lol.
Quoting 318. daddyjames:

LOL - I still think its totally awesome! That arm looks totally real. I wonder if a graduate student drew the short straw, or that is what undergrads are required to do before doing any research in the lab?
The arm was a fake with the LEDs implanted on the surface. The wedding ring was to make the arm look more real :)
Quoting 323. HurricaneFan:


ECMWF has been especially great, as it forecast both Alex and Colin more than a week in advance.


You see, it's not all anecdotes. There's some actual legitimacy to it. :)
Nothing at the surface, but looking like a low is forming off the tip of Cuba. Has the shape and banding possibly forming.
Quoting 207. islander101010:

jeez the same character predicting events said a month ago that the nw carib. was too dry to allow tropical development. just saying
Which character.
Quoting 316. BaltimoreBrian:

I have a long-time blog friend who has a slow connection and I put the (with video) tag on so she won't click on them and get stuck.


As someone with long time, slow connection problems...I salute you!
Think this may be a tropical depression if this makes it though land interaction. It's certainly under the sweet spot.
More convection to grow off of Belize tonight with vort in the mid levels there. Complicated situation. What a start to the season. It's been awhile.
Quoting 324. TroutMadness:

Darn, frost on the hot tub cover and the pws says 35 degrees, its cold here in northern michigan (brought all the veggies in, haven't planted them yet lol)


I would LOVE those temps right now! I don't like hot...or warm LOL!
Some experts calling for a lull until July. I'm not sure we'll have a lull through tomorrow. Great thing about climate is that it's always changing, keeping us off balance, and waiting to crow those in the know.
NHC to skip the yellow and orange crayon and go straight to red? Or will they bite the bullet, expecting this to weaken, and issue no crayons for us? Love to be a fly in that room. Quite the development for the day. Looking very good on satellite. But no low level vort, and land interaction should render this a non player. Or will it?
Quoting 305. KoritheMan:



There's definitely been a lot of progress with the models. There's not nearly as much synoptic variability as there used to be. This current unseasonable trough was predicted well in advance by many people, myself included. There's a little bit more variability in cyclone tracks, but that's because they are responding to small changes in the synoptics (which again, are not nearly as unpredictable as they used to be).

I don't think there's nearly as much uncertainty nowadays as people think. We still can't pin down specifics, but I think we can get a pretty good idea of the trough/ridge pattern 5-7 days from now, sometimes even 10.
It's the teleconnections - in other words, recognising that your wx pattern is originating somewhere else, influencing other patterns besides yours, and headed somewhere else. To a certain extent one can eyeball this stuff and come up with a reasonably decent forecast. What models do is hook the different patterns together for us.
Quoting 336. BahaHurican:

It's the teleconnections - in other words, recognising that your wx pattern is originating somewhere else, influencing other patterns besides yours, and headed somewhere else. To a certain extent one can eyeball this stuff and come up with a reasonably decent forecast. What models do is hook the different patterns together for us.


Pretty much. Researching synoptic meteorology more actually helped me to understand the tropics more, in addition to becoming a better severe weather forecaster. I recommend anyone do it. If you stay in one place you'll never improve. That's what happened to StormW.
Quoting 323. HurricaneFan:


ECMWF has been especially great, as it forecast both Alex and Colin more than a week in advance.
GFS had both at the 14 - 10 day range [and was scoffed at] with relative good accuracy as to track ...
Quoting 325. KoritheMan:



CMC is given flak a lot, but it's actually a decent model when it comes to resolving synoptics. It just sucks with TCs, lol.
That's 'cause it wasn't built for TCs ... lol ...
I'm off to bed ... just got in and have a 10 a.m. appointment .... rain here has been negligible .... just a slight dampening, rather than the downpour one might expect from the sat imagery ... I expect we'll see some showers closer to dawn.

I'm going to watch this latest "entity" with interest in the a.m. as it appears to have the potential to be a player in tomorrow's wx ...
Look at the form of the system over the tip of Cuba. Classic S shape. Clearly an invest. Time is not on it's side. Beautiful none the less.
Quoting 326. BaltimoreBrian:

The arm was a fake with the LEDs implanted on the surface. The wedding ring was to make the arm look more real :)


Well, they had me fooled. I always first check for a ring whenever I meet a disembodied arm - to determine if it already belongs to someone else. ;)

Not to step on your toes, but . . . .

New Statistical Technique Could Help Climate Models Sweat the Small Stuff

And for the sciencey folks into Quasilinear Theory: Generalized Quasilinear Approximation: Application to Zonal Jets
This is the research paper that the first article is reporting on.
Convection is seemingly creeping up the Yucatan's coast. Will it feed the "Cuban Invest" ?

Meanwhile, damaging lightnings, deadly flash floods in northern France and several subway stations still flooded after heavy rain in Bruxelles, Belgium. The situation endlessly favoring heavy rain and strong thunderstorms still prevails over Western EU today. Romanswiller, Alsace, June 7 :

Clearly the enthusiasts can be divided from the many who are here only during a named storm. Tonight is very interesting and most are blissfully unaware. We are few who are enthused by climate every frame of satellite. I am so, because it is changing our world quickly and millions are in the balance of life and death. Climate is the real story of our time. History books will tell it so. History will tell the hour was late and we deemed it not. Arctic is rapidly melting changing the world forever, and we politically are stuck. We aren't truly addressing the problem. We will deal with that in time, and it will cost trillions and likely millions in lives lost.
There is a small low level swirl at the surface just off the SW tip of Cuba.



Quoting 328. DeepSeaRising:

Nothing at the surface, but looking like a low is forming off the tip of Cuba. Has the shape and banding possibly forming.
Quoting 209. yonzabam:



This might explain it. I suppose a satellite could confuse an erupting volcano with a wild fire. From Wiki:

"Thule Island lies close to Cook Island and Bellingshausen Island. It is thought that Thule and Cook may have been a larger single island in the past, and there is evidence for a submerged crater between the two. Steam from the summit crater lake and ash on the flank was reported in 1962. Volcanic heat keeps the crater on Thule Island free from ice. "

This is
South Thule Island
located at 57 degrees 27' South and 27 degrees 18' West off the coast of Antarctica. It is not a volcanic island. The only way I can imagine a fire got started there is by lightening.
Quoting 348. riverat544:


This is
South Thule Island
located at 57 degrees 27' South and 27 degrees 18' West off the coast of Antarctica. It is not a volcanic island. The only way I can imagine a fire got started there is by lightening.



The Wiki page states clearly that it is a volcanic island. This is winter in Antarctica. Difficult to imagine lightning there, never mind it starting a fire on a snow covered island with no trees.
Quoting 349. yonzabam:



The Wiki page states clearly that it is a volcanic island. This is winter in Antarctica. Difficult to imagine lightning there, never mind it starting a fire on a snow covered island with no trees.
Quoting 348. riverat544:


This is
South Thule Island
located at 57 degrees 27' South and 27 degrees 18' West off the coast of Antarctica. It is not a volcanic island. The only way I can imagine a fire got started there is by lightening.



Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand posts.




It may be a part of a chain of volcanoes over a "hot spot", much like the Hawaiian Island Chain.

BAS James Clark Ross discovers underwater volcanoes in South Sandwich Islands

Researchers from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) used ship-borne sea-floor mapping technology during cruises aboard the research ship RRS James Clark Ross and found 12 volcanoes below the water's surface, some of which were as tall as 3 km.
They also found craters with 5 km diameters that collapsing volcanoes left behind, and seven active volcanoes visible above the water's surface as a series of islands.


Quoting 347. daddyjames:

And this one also - seems as if things may have started earlier than initially thought:

Spy satellites reveal early start to Antarctic ice shelf collapse: Declassified images suggest ice flow sped up long before previously thought

And again for the sciencey folks: Revealing the early ice flow patterns with historical Declassified Intelligence Satellite Photographs back to 1960s (paywalled)


Well you just revealed a hidden gem of truth that will never be told anywhere in mainstream US news. Funny how that works.
Hot spot is going to be off of Belize by morning. AOI being impacted by land, time, and speed. Can't develop after Cuba interaction. Convection waning, could, but likely can't.

Cancun gonna get hit again.
Bernie was the chance at real change, real fairness, real people mattering. Trump or Clinton equals just the status quo of the power and money controlling what happens. It's not the Dems or Reps that are the problem, it's entrenched moneyed interest that control agenda. Both parties are equally guilty of that. We need a party of unity. Divisiveness divides us 50/50. Matters that cross party lines are 100%. We need to find what unites us and not divides us. Our Democracy is not so. It is set up now to divide and keep things as they are. Wake up America!
The island in the Antarctic that is erupting is Bristol Island, just south of Thule Island.

From Volcano Discovery:
Bristol Island volcano
Stratovolcano 1100 m / 3,609 ft
United Kingdom, South Sandwich Is, -59.03%uFFFDS / -26.58%uFFFDW
Current status: erupting (4 out of 5)
Last update: 6 Jun 2016



And a better image from Earth Observatory:

AOI has been greatly impacted by land interaction. Moving too fast to have any chance. Lot of action across basins. Look for strong convection off of Belize through tomorrow. This AOI may very well form a low and have a pressure gradient of 1009-1012 as it moves into Florida, but development is not going to happen. I'm not convinced this is over for activity. Looking for vorticity to increase tomorrow off of Belize.
Energy from TD1 has been transferred now to right off of Belize. Conditions say yes. Look for our next yellow circle tomorrow early.
On this note, I am off . . . Who says science can't be fun?!

One of the World’s Oldest Beer Recipes Unearthed in China

Once they had the ingredients, the researchers had to figure out if any actual brewing was taking place. So, they did the only reasonable thing: they brewed beer themselves.

And the "research" - aka "paaaartaaaay!"
Revealing a 5,000-y-old beer recipe in China
One more:

The Craziest Demands of College Kids in 2016
No grades, no Shakespeare, and no students of different stripes - welcome to campus insanity in 2016.

"I believe that the far-right and the far-left can be equally insane . . ." John Avalon

So do I.

Creepin' up...

From the Conagua. Circled in red, heavy rain/flood, possible downbursts warnings.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016
400 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2016

Mexican surface and radar data, along with recent ASCAT overpasses, indicate that the center of the depression is now near the coast of Mexico in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
The scatterometer data suggests that the maximum winds are at most 25 kt. The depression is
expected to move inland later today and dissipate over southeastern Mexico in less than 24 hours.
The initial motion is a northward drift or 360/2. A northward to north-northeastward drift should continue until dissipation. While the associated convection has been minimal for the past few hours, there is a continued heavy rainfall threat from this system. This rainfall will be enhanced by the moist southwest flow over the high terrain of southern Mexico and western Guatemala where flash floods and mud slides are anticipated.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 16.1N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 16.4N 94.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
Forecaster Beven
Good morning.



If nothing else, looks like heavy rains for Belize, Guatemala, Mexico overnight, continuing this morning. .....
Quoting 357. DeepSeaRising:

AOI has been greatly impacted by land interaction. Moving too fast to have any chance. Lot of action across basins. Look for strong convection off of Belize through tomorrow. This AOI may very well form a low and have a pressure gradient of 1009-1012 as it moves into Florida, but development is not going to happen. I'm not convinced this is over for activity. Looking for vorticity to increase tomorrow off of Belize.
. Boy I'm so glad your for sure that this has no chance, and we all though it would. Me personally thinks this thing has a chance. What's that saying never say never
Quoting 363. Accu3535:

. Boy I'm so glad your for sure that this has no chance, and we all though it would. Me personally thinks this thing has a chance. What's that saying never say never


It has a very small chance. Upper-level conditions are not ideal, and none of the global models show even short-term amplification of the system (although they admittedly sometimes miss situations like this, ala Arthur).
sure hopes something tries to develop if not the blog will be filled with doomsters' posts again. most of them are exaggerated baloney. for example common quote here. "we reached the tipping point:" Yea Right.
Good Morning Folks; in terms of the Gulf region, shear continues to be abundant to the North of the Yucatan region (much more shear than over Colin which was further to the East). I am not bullish on any potential development in that area downstream after the current depression dissipates:

355. DeepSeaRising
2:27 AM EDT on June 08, 2016

Both Dems and Reps (Congress), under the influence of corporate money, sat idly by for the past 50 years and allowed US manufacturing to be sent off-shore gutting good American jobs which created a stable middle class (and helped working class people send their kids to college) that has shrunk at an alarming rate ever since the 1990's; I am not a fan of either party or of the people (many of them millionaries) who actually run the Country or who run for office. I pay a little more attention if they support carbon emission reduction......................................... ...............
We just can't get any luck here with rain
Kinda suggested a while back we were still in this El Niño pattern.....
Quoting 366. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks; in terms of the Gulf region, shear continues to be abundant to the North of the Yucatan region (much more shear than over Colin which was further to the East). I am not bullish on any potential development in that area downstream after the current depression dissipates:


There is a Spin just off the coast of Havana, Cuba, to the NW.

Might be Mid Level, but there is something there.
From the Miami NWS Discussion...

DISCUSSION...
Short term (Today through Friday): precipitation forecast
somewhat tricky as embedded disturbances/shortwaves in the deep
southwest flow move up from the SE Gulf of Mexico. One such
shortwave is just off the NW coast of Cuba at the present time (as
can be observed by satellite imagery and Key West Doppler Radar)
and models seem to latch on it to fairly well although the GFS
model appears too strong as it moves it towards South Florida this
afternoon. Coverage of precip lower than forecast this morning and
went below all of the guidance for a short period, then back up to
70/80% range by late morning as the mid/upper shortwave acts on
copious moisture in place across South Florida. Greatest coverage
and enhancement of showers/thunderstorms should lie from Naples
area across Lake Okeechobee area to Palm Beach County due to
closer proximity to surface trough across Central Florida. The
shortwave will pass through tonight, followed by a temporary
decrease in precip coverage overnight (still in 40-50% range). GFS
depiction of surface low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
Thursday night and Friday seems overdone and may be a depiction of
another mid/upper shortwave moving through the area. With overall
pattern changing little through Friday, focus for most widespread
precipitation should continue to reside over the Naples/Lake
Okeechobee/Palm Beach County areas.

Main concern will be heavy rainfall and localized flooding.
Despite lack of large-scale forcing, the presence of the
shortwave, upper level divergence and the high moisture content
points to at least a possibility of 3-day rain amounts over 4
inches, especially in areas of greatest shower/thunderstorm
coverage. Also, moderate SW winds today will mean that the
strongest convection may contain wind gusts up to 50 mph, similar
to the past 2 days.

Link

372. elioe
Good afternoon all. I hope that the Florida-based majority of members here survived Colin with relatively little damage.

Now the tropical Atlantic seems to quiet down for some time. Chances of the remnants of TD 1-E regenerating near Tamaulipas/Veracruz seem marginal. Perhaps something forming near Belize in 8-9 days, or something east of Lesser Antilles in 12-14 days. However, after this busy start of hurricane season, I wouldn't be surprised if all of those formations occur and we'd see storms to at least Fiona by the end of June.

Meanwhile, a rare summertime gale is beginning to affect Finland. I'm glad I don't live near the coast, or near a big lake.
Manasota Key beach erosion 'worse than Charley'
Link



I would like to add that Charley was a small system and it made landfall south of Manasota Key. So they didn't experience the strong onshore winds at their location like north Captiva Island for example and points just south of the landfall location.
We could use a little drying out. Great beach weekend.



Quoting 355. DeepSeaRising:

Bernie was the chance at real change, real fairness, real people mattering. Trump or Clinton equals just the status quo of the power and money controlling what happens. It's not the Dems or Reps that are the problem, it's entrenched moneyed interest that control agenda. Both parties are equally guilty of that. We need a party of unity. Divisiveness divides us 50/50. Matters that cross party lines are 100%. We need to find what unites us and not divides us. Our Democracy is not so. It is set up now to divide and keep things as they are. Wake up America!


Wouldn't we need a SC ruling on lobbying being a form of the 1st amendment before anything happens in that regard? Similar to another issue I won't get into on the forum.
Quoting 366. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks; in terms of the Gulf region, shear continues to be abundant to the North of the Yucatan region (much more shear than over Colin which was further to the East). I am not bullish on any potential development in that area downstream after the current depression dissipates:



That is an anti-cyclone sitting over the western tip of Cuba though
Quoting 350. daddyjames:



Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand posts.




It may be a part of a chain of volcanoes over a "hot spot", much like the Hawaiian Island Chain.

BAS James Clark Ross discovers underwater volcanoes in South Sandwich Islands

Researchers from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) used ship-borne sea-floor mapping technology during cruises aboard the research ship RRS James Clark Ross and found 12 volcanoes below the water's surface, some of which were as tall as 3 km.
They also found craters with 5 km diameters that collapsing volcanoes left behind, and seven active volcanoes visible above the water's surface as a series of islands.





the South Sandwich islands are more like the lesser Antilles than Hawaii. There's a small plate being subducted there--it's produced quite a few large quakes in the last few decades.
Quoting 344. 999Ai2016:

Meanwhile, damaging lightnings, deadly flash floods in northern France and several subway stations still flooded after heavy rain in Bruxelles, Belgium. The situation endlessly favoring heavy rain and strong thunderstorms still prevails over Western EU today. Romanswiller, Alsace, June 7 :


Isn't that just Brussels?
Quoting 333. mitthbevnuruodo:



I would LOVE those temps right now! I don't like hot...or warm LOL!


Latest ever frost I've seen in DC was June 7, 1977 in a few spots in the outer suburbs. THis followed the second warmest spring of record to that time and was followed by a warmer than normal summer.

In 1979 in Central PA I forecast frost five times in June, mostly the last half, and all five verified. Again this was only in shallow valleys and other spots that radiate well and collect cold drainage.
380. ariot
Quoting 334. DeepSeaRising:

Some experts calling for a lull until July. I'm not sure we'll have a lull through tomorrow. Great thing about climate is that it's always changing, keeping us off balance, and waiting to crow those in the know.


I assume the climate is exceptionally stable to the point of being imperceptible within a human lifetime, absent any forces acting upon it, such as geologic forces pushing up new mountain ranges, continents drifting apart opening up new oceans, orbital variations, impacts of large off-world objects, volcanic eruptions roughly the size of Texas and human activity since the industrial revolution that has extracted and released enough CO2 to change atmospheric chemistry.

But yeah, now that you mention it, the climate changes all the time. Just last year the glacier covering a big part of the U.S. melted and created the Great Lakes. That was cool.

:-) - Just messin' with ya.
382. WRook
Quoting 370. FIUStormChaser:

There is a Spin just off the coast of Havana, Cuba, to the NW.

Might be Mid Level, but there is something there.
While there is a spin that can be seen on Key West radar. The area of circulation that has been present for about 24 hours appears to be along the southern edge of Cuba. It appears the energy from the southwest is beginning to feed into it
Very warm (28C/82F) and muggy day today in London (UK). Had some light relief from a shower. Hoping we'll see some thunderstorm to really cool things down later. It should freshen up come friday thankfully. Not a fan of hot and humid weather that the summer can bring. Fingers crossed there won't be any major heatwave this summer.
Quoting 383. Envoirment:

Very warm (28C/82F) and muggy day today in London (UK). Had some light relief from a shower. Hoping we'll see some thunderstorm to really cool things down later. It should freshen up come friday thankfully. Not a fan of hot and humid weather that the summer can bring. Fingers crossed there won't be any major heatwave this summer.


Well that was quick, a thunderstorm is now booming above me. :)

Just had a look at the UK radar and lots of storms popping up across the UK, some with rain rates of 2"/hour . Potential flash flooding could occur today. A large swathe of the UK is under a yellow warning for rain.

Just heard the loudest thunder I think I've ever heard, scared the heck out of me. Sounded more like a bomb!!! These storms aren't messing around.
Quoting 369. 19N81W:

Kinda suggested a while back we were still in this El Niño pattern.....



Stop sensationalising. It's not that bad.





It's June, not August.
386. SLU
Quiet Cape Verde season in 2016?? I say no way.


Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
Latest ECMWF seasonal up to 9 hurricanes from July-Dec. That would bring totals up to 10 for the season when including Alex.

Quoting 386. SLU:

Quiet Cape Verde season in 2016?? I say no way.


Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
Latest ECMWF seasonal up to 9 hurricanes from July-Dec. That would bring totals up to 10 for the season when including Alex.




Who cares? Most of them recurve anyway. My August/September chasecation wouldn't like that. :)
Quoting 367. weathermanwannabe:

355. DeepSeaRising
2:27 AM EDT on June 08, 2016

Both Dems and Reps (Congress), under the influence of corporate money, sat idly by for the past 50 years and allowed US manufacturing to be sent off-shore gutting good American jobs which created a stable middle class (and helped working class people send their kids to college) that has shrunk at an alarming rate ever since the 1990's; I am not a fan of either party or of the people (many of them millionaries) who actually run the Country or who run for office. I pay a little more attention if they support carbon emission reduction......................................... ...............


Well I have an idea who's out for you.

Q: Would you cut departments?
TRUMP: Environmental Protection, what they do is a disgrace. Every week they come out with new regulations.
Q: Who's going to protect the environment?
TRUMP: We'll be fine with the environment. We can leave a little bit, but you can't destroy businesses.
Quoting 387. KoritheMan:



Who cares? Most of them recurve anyway. My August/September chasecation wouldn't like that. :)
I like that you're being honest Kori.I think we could see some storms develop close to home.I think the Bahamas and the caribbean could have serious potential once shear drops in those areas.If it wasn't for the three amigos Shear,dry air and land interaction both Danny and Erika could have been major trouble for the U.S had those conditions not been in place.
Quoting 389. washingtonian115:

I like that you're being honest Kori.I think we could see some storms develop close to home.I think the Bahamas and the caribbean could have serious potential once shear drops in those areas.If it wasn't for the three amigos Shear,dry air and land interaction both Danny and Erika could have been major trouble for the U.S had those conditions not been in place.


Yeah, last year had a pretty good ridge from the last part of August all the way through September. What happened to that magical trough? Oh wait, it wasn't there. :P
Could someone explain why this weather system now known as "Colin" was named. The following definition of a Tropical Cyclone was copied from the National Hurricane Center web site, " A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation". Colin never fit this description at any time. Use weather text books and the definition will be more narrow, Specifically, the weather (banding) becomes stronger as you get closer to the center and this an additional mention of the circulation around a (a meaning one) single center. Colin was not a Tropical Cyclone or Tropical Storm. These national weather organizations are becoming political tools and are not properly informing the public. We are on a slippery slope that I have witnessed many times over the years, Now that I an retired and no longer involved in emergency management I will speak my mind. I hope Dr. Masters whom I respect has a comment on this.
Do not know what the African Wave train will look like in August and September but if today and the past few months are any indication, we are going to have lots of tropical waves this season with a good chance to develop into tropical storms if sheer cooperates in the peak period: this is the most healthy pre-peak ITCZ that I have seen in a few seasons now.





Quoting 391. wileywiz:

Could someone explain why this weather system now known as "Colin" was named. The following definition of a Tropical Cyclone was copied from the National Hurricane Center web site, " A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation". Colin never fit this description at any time. Use weather text books and the definition will be more narrow, Specifically, the weather (banding) becomes stronger as you get closer to the center and this an additional mention of the circulation around a (a meaning one) single center. Colin was not a Tropical Cyclone or Tropical Storm. These national weather organizations are becoming political tools and are not properly informing the public. We are on a slippery slope that I have witnessed many times over the years, Now that I an retired and no longer involved in emergency management I will speak my mind. I hope Dr. Masters whom I respect has a comment on this.


"Organized" isn't static. There is an element of subjectivity to it all, by virtue of no clear definition of what "organized" being assimilated into the definition.
Quoting 387. KoritheMan:



Who cares? Most of them recurve anyway. My August/September chasecation wouldn't like that. :)


What about October? The NMME is showing a what could be lot of activity in the Gulf for October. :)
Quoting 391. wileywiz:

Could someone explain why this weather system now known as "Colin" was named. The following definition of a Tropical Cyclone was copied from the National Hurricane Center web site, " A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation". Colin never fit this description at any time. Use weather text books and the definition will be more narrow, Specifically, the weather (banding) becomes stronger as you get closer to the center and this an additional mention of the circulation around a (a meaning one) single center. Colin was not a Tropical Cyclone or Tropical Storm. These national weather organizations are becoming political tools and are not properly informing the public. We are on a slippery slope that I have witnessed many times over the years, Now that I an retired and no longer involved in emergency management I will speak my mind. I hope Dr. Masters whom I respect has a comment on this.


Interesting point. Can you explain a situation where the NHC has been used as a a political tool? How so?
Quoting 394. Envoirment:



What about October? The NMME is showing a what could be lot of activity in the Gulf for October. :)


Wilma 2.0, obviously. I mean, think about it... this season is already way ahead of 2005.
Quoting 395. gator23:



Interesting point. Can you explain a situation where the NHC has been used as a a political tool? How so?


He can't. He's just spouting nonsense.


What in the world have the models OCD3 and SFH5 been drinking!?!
Quoting 391. wileywiz:

Could someone explain why this weather system now known as "Colin" was named. The following definition of a Tropical Cyclone was copied from the National Hurricane Center web site, " A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation". Colin never fit this description at any time. Use weather text books and the definition will be more narrow, Specifically, the weather (banding) becomes stronger as you get closer to the center and this an additional mention of the circulation around a (a meaning one) single center. Colin was not a Tropical Cyclone or Tropical Storm. These national weather organizations are becoming political tools and are not properly informing the public. We are on a slippery slope that I have witnessed many times over the years, Now that I an retired and no longer involved in emergency management I will speak my mind. I hope Dr. Masters whom I respect has a comment on this.



Welcome to the blog!
Here's just one reason why it was named.
scroll up to SFloridaCat5 post # 373
http://www.nbc-2.com/story/32167264/manasota-key- beach-erosion-worse-than-charley#.V1gNFPkrLIU


Quoting 390. KoritheMan:



Yeah, last year had a pretty good ridge from the last part of August into September. What happened to that magical trough? Oh wait, it wasn't there. :P


How far away are you willing to go to chase? If I recall you're from Louisiana and wanted to go to Florida in case Erika was something to be worried about.

I'm curious to see what October brings too. Last couple of seasons we had the bulk of ACE in that month and will be much closer in the transitioning into La Nina by then. Wondering if the steering will again put the Bahamas and Bermuda in the line of fire, or even scare the pants off me like last year. Maybe we see our strongest storm in the Caribbean around the secondary peak of the season? If the MJO is in our basin this week and average its period by about 45 days that puts an MJO in our basin roughly around October 22nd (of course I'm just almanacking here).
Quoting 377. FIUStormChaser:




That appears to be our friend from yesterday per the vort maps. Looks better. GFS and CMC still develops albiet embedded in the departing front off the coast of Florida tomorrow. Link
Quoting 400. win1gamegiantsplease:



How far away are you willing to go to chase? If I recall you're from Louisiana and wanted to go to Florida in case Erika was something to be worried about.

I'm curious to see what October brings too. Last couple of seasons we had the bulk of ACE in that month and will be much closer in the transitioning into La Nina by then. Wondering if the steering will again put the Bahamas and Bermuda in the line of fire, or even scare the pants off me like last year. Maybe we see our strongest storm in the Caribbean around the secondary peak of the season? If the MJO is in our basin this week and average its period by about 45 days that puts an MJO in our basin roughly around October 22nd (of course I'm just almanacking here).


Gulf Coast, ideally. I doubt I'll have enough money to go north of Florida, but we'll see.
Quoting 396. KoritheMan:



Wilma 2.0, obviously. I mean, think about it... this season is already way ahead of 2005.


Certainly seems to be more potential for a Wilma/Charley like system later in the season based on model precipitation anomalies.

July will be an interesting month - models look to be pointing towards a rather wet July. Could see a few storms - something like Dorian/Chantal in 2013 or perhaps even something like Bertha in 2008.

In terms of the AMO, May had a positive value of 0.359. Given a -NAO and the warming of the MDR in the coming weeks, it looks at though we'll be in for a more active pattern. 1998 had a value of 0.396 for May (one of the analog years), so we aren't too far behind.

+AMO, above average MDR SSTs, an active wave train and a developing La Nina. I find it hard to see how this season isn't going to be above average. My prediction was 16-8-4, but wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with something like 18-10-6.
Quoting 403. Envoirment:



Certainly seems to be more potential for a Wilma/Charley like system later in the season based on model precipitation anomalies.

July will be an interesting month - models look to be pointing towards a rather wet July. Could see a few storms - something like Dorian/Chantal in 2013 or perhaps even something like Bertha in 2008.

In terms of the AMO, May had a positive value of 0.359. Given a -NAO and the warming of the MDR in the coming weeks, it looks at though we'll be in for a more active pattern. 1998 had a value of 0.396 for May (one of the analog years), so we aren't too far behind.

+AMO, above average MDR SSTs, an active wave train and a developing La Nina. I find it hard to see how this season isn't going to be above average. My prediction was 16-8-4, but wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with something like 18-10-6.


I think the odds of getting at least one Caribbean hurricane this season are high. If we happen to get one next month, I'll be sold on a 15-16 storm season.
Quoting 391. wileywiz:

Could someone explain why this weather system now known as "Colin" was named. The following definition of a Tropical Cyclone was copied from the National Hurricane Center web site, " A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation". Colin never fit this description at any time. Use weather text books and the definition will be more narrow, Specifically, the weather (banding) becomes stronger as you get closer to the center and this an additional mention of the circulation around a (a meaning one) single center. Colin was not a Tropical Cyclone or Tropical Storm. These national weather organizations are becoming political tools and are not properly informing the public. We are on a slippery slope that I have witnessed many times over the years, Now that I an retired and no longer involved in emergency management I will speak my mind. I hope Dr. Masters whom I respect has a comment on this.


It had 1 minute sustained winds in excess of 39 mph and a closed circulation, so it satisfied the criteria. Unless you know something the hurricane hunters don't.
Quoting 398. Famoguy1234:



What in the world have the models OCD3 and SFH5 been drinking!?!


If they have good taste, Rochefort 8.
Quoting 386. SLU:

Quiet Cape Verde season in 2016?? I say no way.


Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
Latest ECMWF seasonal up to 9 hurricanes from July-Dec. That would bring totals up to 10 for the season when including Alex.




Hmm that close to what I predicted . . . hurricane wise.
Quoting 403. Envoirment:



Certainly seems to be more potential for a Wilma/Charley like system later in the season based on model precipitation anomalies.

July will be an interesting month - models look to be pointing towards a rather wet July. Could see a few storms - something like Dorian/Chantal in 2013 or perhaps even something like Bertha in 2008.

In terms of the AMO, May had a positive value of 0.359. Given a -NAO and the warming of the MDR in the coming weeks, it looks at though we'll be in for a more active pattern. 1998 had a value of 0.396 for May (one of the analog years), so we aren't too far behind.

AMO, above average MDR SSTs, an active wave train and a developing La Nina. I find it hard to see how this season isn't going to be above average. My prediction was 16-8-4, but wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with something like 18-10-6.


Nice comment :) But Chantal and Dorian of 2013 were pathetic. It wouldn't be a good signal (dry air issue) if we get storms like these in july... in my opinion of course. Seriously, 2013 was a nightmare :/
Quoting 407. Patrap:










Does this maybe have the chance of crossing into the gulf?
Quoting 405. yonzabam:



It had 1 minute sustained winds in excess of 39 mph and a closed circulation, so it satisfied the criteria. Unless you know something the hurricane hunters don't.


It was a closed low as well. It wasn't pretty but it met the criteria.
Good morning

It's 87, already feeling like 99, hot, humid and partly cloudy on the island today.

Our illustrious power plant went down in the wee hours of the morning, taking down both St. Thomas and St. John. Fortunately for this household, we are on the hospital line which means we are one of the first to be reconnected. It's anyone's guess how long it will take to get everyone else up and running.

Had a good thunderstorm, along with a little over an inch of rain (according to my orange Home Depot bucket), and some good winds just after the power went out.

I also understand that the storm caused blackouts in quite a few areas of St. Croix too.

In other news:

"ST. CROIX: The Department of Health on Tuesday revealed that for the past week, there were no new cases of the Zika virus in the territory, keeping the islands' count at 24, with 15 in St. Croix, 8 in St. Thomas and 1 in St. John."

"ST. CROIX: The Department of Planning and Natural Resources announced today that the St. Croix East End Marine Park, part of D.P.N.R.'s Division of Coastal Zone Management, is advising the public about a recent sighting of a Portuguese man o' war, above, at Robin Bay. The Atlantic Portuguese man o' war, also known as the Man-of-War, blue bubble, or floating terror, is a marine hydrozoan of the family Physaliidae found in the Atlantic Ocean, as well as the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Its venomous tentacles can deliver a painful (and sometimes fatal) sting. "

That last article reminded me to refill my bottle vinegar and add it to my beach bag. When I've been stung by jellyfish I found that the apple cider vinegar worked better at relieving the sting rather than the plain white vinegar.

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy
Quoting 391. wileywiz:

Could someone explain why this weather system now known as "Colin" was named. The following definition of a Tropical Cyclone was copied from the National Hurricane Center web site, " A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation". Colin never fit this description at any time. Use weather text books and the definition will be more narrow, Specifically, the weather (banding) becomes stronger as you get closer to the center and this an additional mention of the circulation around a (a meaning one) single center. Colin was not a Tropical Cyclone or Tropical Storm. These national weather organizations are becoming political tools and are not properly informing the public. We are on a slippery slope that I have witnessed many times over the years, Now that I an retired and no longer involved in emergency management I will speak my mind. I hope Dr. Masters whom I respect has a comment on this.


How did Colin not fit the definition you provided? Without shear displacing the convection, it would have more than fit the bill. Let's say that the center of Colin tracked a little more to the east than it actually did, the shear did not displace the convection as much, and the NHC had not designated it, what would you be arguing then?. The only slope that is slippery is the one you're traversing.

I believe that Colin was named based on the on-site recon mission of the Hurricane Hunters who fly in to try to find a closed low with sustained winds meeting depression or TS force winds in accordance with the definitions; they report in the data to NHC and they name accordingly if warranted. We have also seen many times when the Hunters go in, cannot find a closed low meeting the criteria, and NHC will direct them in several times into different quads of the circulation based on satt presentation but still no cigar if the Hunters cannot close it off.

Point being that I do not think that the Hunter pilots and AF mets on the flights are politically motivated at all to make the call either way............They literally fly by the book (and the seat of their pants sometimes).
Quoting 373. Sfloridacat5:

Manasota Key beach erosion 'worse than Charley'
Link



I would like to add that Charley was a small system and it made landfall south of Manasota Key. So they didn't experience the strong onshore winds at their location like north Captiva Island for example and points just south of the landfall location.


From the article:

The county is working on a 10-year beach renourishment plan for Manasota Key using money from the BP oil spill settlement, and many hope that relief comes soon.

One could argue, and I do, that this is a gross misappropriation of funds . . .
Quoting 398. Famoguy1234:



What in the world have the models OCD3 and SFH5 been drinking!?!


And what if..? 8-o
*runs for cover*
Anyone "claiming" to be "retired" from "emg mgt" and made a asinine statement like that surely was NEVER in Emg Mgt.

Thats a blown cover for sure, esp on a First post.


What's this 1013 low? A possible AOI? This is ECMWF and only 72 hours out.
Quoting 419. HurricaneFan:

What's this 1013 low? A possible AOI? This is ECMWF and only 72 hours out.

Likely nothing.
Quoting 391. wileywiz:

Could someone explain why this weather system now known as "Colin" was named.... These national weather organizations are becoming political tools and are not properly informing the public.
Sigh.

Over my years here, I've kept a lose count, and I've found that there are roughly as many comments about the NHC naming storms they shouldn't for dark and nefarious reasons as there are comments about the NHC NOT naming storms they should for equally dark and nefarious reasons.

I do so wish the conspiracy theorists would reach some sort of agreement on this before posting here...
422. MahFL
Quoting 405. yonzabam:



It had 1 minute sustained winds in excess of 39 mph and a closed circulation, so it satisfied the criteria. Unless you know something the hurricane hunters don't.


Actually the NHC decides on the classification, the Hurricane Hunters provide the in system data.
423. MahFL
Quoting 391. wileywiz:

Could someone explain why this weather system now known as "Colin" was named.


To be fair one of the Weather Channel's hurricane experts said Colin was the most non looking tropical cyclone he had seen, but it was still a tropical cyclone.
I don't mind Colin being named, but I have no idea why it wasn't considered a sub-tropical system. It met their definition exactly.


From NOAA's HRD site. "Often, these storms have a radius of maximum winds which is farther out (on the order of 100-200 km [60-125 miles] from the center) than what is observed for purely "tropical" systems."

That was exactly Colin.

"Therefore, many of these cyclones exist in a weak to moderate horizontal temperature gradient region (like mid-latitude cyclones), but also receive much of their energy from convective clouds (like tropical cyclones)."

Got a lot of its energy from the ULL to its west, but also had its own convection going. So matches this perfectly to.


Seems like their textbook definition to me. Maybe in post-season analysis they will change it.

Quoting 391. wileywiz:

Could someone explain why this weather system now known as "Colin" was named. The following definition of a Tropical Cyclone was copied from the National Hurricane Center web site, " A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation". Colin never fit this description at any time. Use weather text books and the definition will be more narrow, Specifically, the weather (banding) becomes stronger as you get closer to the center and this an additional mention of the circulation around a (a meaning one) single center. Colin was not a Tropical Cyclone or Tropical Storm. These national weather organizations are becoming political tools and are not properly informing the public. We are on a slippery slope that I have witnessed many times over the years, Now that I an retired and no longer involved in emergency management I will speak my mind. I hope Dr. Masters whom I respect has a comment on this.


where to begin my comments.....and not only that...but how do i respond without getting banned....so let me respond respectfully....


you mention that you will speak your mind now that you're retired...however....wouldn't you say that you would have had more influence when you were actively working than now....now...i understand you as a typical government employee were working for a paycheck and a retirement plan and didn't wanted to jeopardize the government dole...but i think you had a better opportunity earlier than now to make a difference

also, may i offer you from jetstream the classification of a tropical system...you can also take their online class so that you might be better informed

Tropical Cyclone Classification
Tropical cyclones with an organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined circulation, and maximum sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) or less are called "tropical depressions". Once the tropical cyclone reaches winds of at least 39 mph (63 km/h) they are typically called a "tropical storm" and assigned a name.

If maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph (119 km/h), the cyclone is called:

A hurricane in the North Atlantic Ocean, the Northeast Pacific Ocean east of the dateline, and the South Pacific Ocean east of 160°E, (The word hurricane comes from the Carib Indians of the West Indies, who called this storm a huracan. Supposedly, the ancient Tainos tribe of Central America called their god of evil "Huracan". Spanish colonists modified the word to hurricane.),
A typhoon in the Northwest Pacific Ocean west of the dateline (super typhoon if the maximum sustained winds are at least 150 mph / 241 km/h),
A severe tropical cyclone in the Southwest Pacific Ocean west of 160°E or Southeast Indian Ocean east of 90°E,
A severe cyclonic storm in the North Indian Ocean, and
A tropical cyclone in the Southwest Indian Ocean.
Hurricanes are further classified according to their wind speed. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity. This scale only addresses the wind speed and does not take into account the potential for other hurricane-related impacts, such as storm surge, rainfall-induced floods, and tornadoes.


welcome to weather underground...please don't take the negative comments as a direct response to you personally...only to the comment that you left
Quoting 413. LindyVirginIslander:

Good morning

It's 87, already feeling like 99, hot, humid and partly cloudy on the island today.

Our illustrious power plant went down in the wee hours of the morning, taking down both St. Thomas and St. John. Fortunately for this household, we are on the hospital line which means we are one of the first to be reconnected. It's anyone's guess how long it will take to get everyone else up and running.

Had a good thunderstorm, along with a little over an inch of rain (according to my orange Home Depot bucket), and some good winds just after the power went out.

I also understand that the storm caused blackouts in quite a few areas of St. Croix too.

In other news:

"ST. CROIX %u2014 The Department of Health on Tuesday revealed that for the past week, there were no new cases of the Zika virus in the territory, keeping the islands%u2019 count at 24, with 15 in St. Croix, 8 in St. Thomas and 1 in St. John."

"ST. CROIX %u2014 The Department of Planning and Natural Resources announced today that the St. Croix East End Marine Park, part of D.P.N.R.%u2019s Division of Coastal Zone Management, is advising the public about a recent sighting of a Portuguese man o%u2019 war, above, at Robin Bay. The Atlantic Portuguese man o%u2019 war, also known as the Man-of-War, blue bubble, or floating terror, is a marine hydrozoan of the family Physaliidae found in the Atlantic Ocean, as well as the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Its venomous tentacles can deliver a painful (and sometimes fatal) sting. "

That last article reminded me to refill my bottle vinegar and add it to my beach bag. When I've been stung by jellyfish I found that the apple cider vinegar worked better at relieving the sting rather than the plain white vinegar.

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy
I'm just curious, is it unusual to see Man of War there? I have encountered them sometimes in the tens of hundreds washed up on the beach in St. Augustine, Fl. over the years. And, we definitely gave them a very wide berth...their tentacles often reached ten plus feet all around them!
Looks like the atlantic might enter a quiet period now in june which is something typical.
Quoting 398. Famoguy1234:



What in the world have the models OCD3 and SFH5 been drinking!?!
Audrey 2.0 lol
Quoting 419. HurricaneFan:

What's this 1013 low? A possible AOI? This is ECMWF and only 72 hours out.



That is our little spin near Cuba.
Quoting 426. Loduck:

I'm just curious, is it unusual to see Man of War there? I have encountered them sometimes in the tens of hundreds washed up on the beach in St. Augustine, Fl. over the years. And, we definitely gave them a very wide berth...their tentacles often reached ten plus feet all around them!


I've been here on St. Thomas for close to 14 years and believe I've only heard of them in this area once. I've been told that they frequent the south shores of St. Croix (which that article was referring to). It just seems a little early in the summer for them to be there. Then again, I'm not the expert, just an observer!

-L

Good, it seems the heavy rain is finally receding from the more populated areas down there.
432. elioe
Quoting 424. VAbeachhurricanes:

I don't mind Colin being named, but I have no idea why it wasn't considered a sub-tropical system. It met their definition exactly.


From NOAA's HRD site. "Often, these storms have a radius of maximum winds which is farther out (on the order of 100-200 km [60-125 miles] from the center) than what is observed for purely "tropical" systems."

That was exactly Colin.

"Therefore, many of these cyclones exist in a weak to moderate horizontal temperature gradient region (like mid-latitude cyclones), but also receive much of their energy from convective clouds (like tropical cyclones)."

Got a lot of its energy from the ULL to its west, but also had its own convection going. So matches this perfectly to.


Seems like their textbook definition to me. Maybe in post-season analysis they will change it.




From the very beginning, analyses of the observed data determined Colin was tropical (warm core] system while in the Gulf of mexico.

colin03l analysis and forecast cyclone phase evolution



Wind shear displacing the mid upper level convection from the low level center is a different mechanism than that generating the displacement of the convection from the center of a subtropical storm.
Quoting 432. elioe:



330 hours though
Quoting 433. daddyjames:



From the very beginning, analyses of the observed data determined Colin was tropical (warm core] system while in the Gulf of mexico.

colin03l analysis and forecast cyclone phase evolution



Wind shear displacing the mid upper level convection from the low level center is a different mechanism than that generating the displacement of the convection from the center of a subtropical storm.


Shear wasn't the only mechanism pushing the convection from the center, if that were the case convection would still try to initiate over the center, or at least a lot closer, and then get pushed. There was never convection anywhere close to its center, or rather anywhere else besides to that one side.


Also as the thermal wind graphic shows, it was always in a weak to moderate temperate gradient,
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Just got a text from tropical storm Jose from 2011 and he assures me that Colin was indeed a tropical storm. Jose's pressure never got lower than 1006mb. We had an awesome major in the MDR last year that looked like hunny I shrunk the hurricane movie. Can't base on looks alone.
Quoting 430. LindyVirginIslander:



I've been here on St. Thomas for close to 14 years and believe I've only heard of them in this area once. I've been told that they frequent the south shores of St. Croix (which that article was referring to). It just seems a little early in the summer for them to be there. Then again, I'm not the expert, just an observer!

-L
I, also am just an observer and not an expert, but for some reason I was assuming that since we really in the grand scheme of things are not that far from one another that they, the Man of War, would also be there in abundance...I am surprised by that.
439. beell
Colin was a monsoonal gyre (tropical). Colin was also a dingus.
COuld we have the D name as well before June 11th? We'll have to wait and see.
441. vis0
Quoting 439. beell:

Colin was a monsoonal gyre (tropical). Colin was also a dingus.
or as i called both B and CTS ~3 days before they formed, "Themacanes" i did not know the official term monsoonal gyre,
Quoting 411. Famoguy1234:



Does this maybe have the chance of crossing into the gulf?
I think it does