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Trouble in Paradise: Cat 4 Winston May be Fiji's Strongest Tropical Cyclone on Record

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:58 PM GMT on February 19, 2016

There's trouble in paradise. The strongest storm ever to threaten the South Pacific island of Fiji, Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Winston, is poised to make a direct hit on the island nation on Saturday. Winston's formidable winds of 145 mph are not expected to change much before then, and when the storm makes its expected landfall on Fiji's main island, Viti Levu, at approximately 1200 UTC (7 am EST) Saturday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) expects that Winston will be Fiji's strongest tropical cyclone on record: a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 145 - 150 mph. At 10 am EST Friday, winds at Vanua Balavu Island, which was in the western eyewall of Winston, were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 103 mph. Winston's central pressure was estimated at 925 mb at 8:11 am EST Friday by the Fiji Meteorological Service.


Figure 1. Visible image from the VIIRS satellite of Tropical Cyclone Winston taken at 0115 UTC February 19, 2016. At the time, WInston was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

On Friday morning, Winston was in a nearly ideal environment for intensification, with wind shear a low 5 - 10 knots, excellent upper-level outflow channels to both the north and the south, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 30.5°C (87°F). These SSTs are about 1 - 1.5°C (1.8 - 2.7°F) above average. Unusually warm waters extend to great depth, giving Winston a high Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) in excess of 75 kJ/cm^2, a value which is often associated with rapid intensification. Satellite imagery on Friday morning showed that Winston had a large area of heavy thunderstorms concentrated in a donut shape around a 18-mile diameter eye, with very few outer spiral bands. This structure may qualify Winston as an "annular" hurricane--a special subclass of hurricanes which are more resistant to weakening than regular hurricanes. With such an annular structure, and with SSTs that will warm to 31°C (88°F) as Winston moves closer to Fiji, the storm should be able to maintain its Category 4 intensity until landfall.


Figure 2. Radar image from the Fiji weather service showing the outer spiral bands of Tropical Cyclone Winston bringing rain to Fiji at 1541 UTC Friday, February 19, 2016.

Fiji's tropical cyclone history
Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Evan of December 17, 2012 walloped Fiji with sustained winds of 135 mph, as the storm's southern eyewall--the most intense part of the storm--brought hurricane conditions to a long stretch of the north and west coasts of Fiji's main island, Viti Levu. According to a database maintained by NOAA's Coastal Service Center, Evan was the strongest tropical cyclone on record to affect Fiji's main island, with records going back to 1941 (however, accurate satellite records extend back to only about 1990.) Evan did $109 million in damage (2012 dollars) to Fiji, making it the second most destructive storm in their history. The most devastating cyclone to affect Fiji in recent decades was Category 2 Cyclone Kina of January 1993, which killed 23 people and did $100 million in damage (1993 dollars.) The only deadlier storm than Kina was Category 3 Cyclone Eric of 1985, which made a direct hit on the capital of Suva, killing 25.


Figure 3. Tracks of all Category 1 and stronger tropical cyclones to pass within 100 miles of Fiji's main island of Viti Levu since 1941. Evan of 2012 (Category 4 with 135 mph winds) was the strongest cyclone on record to affect Fiji, but Winston of 2016 is stronger. Image credit: NOAA's Coastal Service Center.


Figure 4. Radar image from the Fiji weather service showing the large eye of Tropical Cyclone Evan just north of Fiji at 2:50 pm local time (02:50 UTC) on Monday, December 17, 2012. At the time, the city of Nadi was in the southern eyewall of Evan, and recorded sustained winds of 52 mph, gusting to 104 mph. Sustained winds at Nadi increased to 69 mph three hours later.

Climate change and Fiji
Storm surge from Winston is of particular concern for Fiji, where sea level rise and coastal erosion have already begun to displace people. The nation includes more than 300 islands; some are volcanic in origin, while many of the smaller islands are low-lying coral atolls especially vulnerable to sea level rise. The nation has already assisted one small village, Vunidogolo, in moving to a new location as part of its climate change adaptation program. More than 30 other Fijian villages have been identified as vulnerable.

Although it represents only a tiny share of the world’s fossil fuel emissions, Fiji is doing its part to reduce them. On February 12, Fiji became the first nation on Earth to ratify the global pact on reducing greenhouse emissions that was hammered out at the UN Conference of Parties meeting (COP21) last December in Paris. Fiji has pledged to boost the renewable share of its electricity generation from around 60% in 2013 to near 100% by 2030. Together with energy efficiency improvements, this will reduce Fiji’s carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2030 by roughly 30% compared to a business-as-usual approach.


Figure 5. In February 2014, the village of Vunidogoloa on Vanua Levu became the first community in Fiji to relocate because of coastal erosion and flooding attributed in part to climate change. The village moved to higher ground two kilometers inland. Image credit: Nansen Initiative, courtesy UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Links
Radar images from the Fiji weather service
Himawari 8 satellite loops from NOAA/RAMMB (select Floater 1 Band 3, or American Samoa)
Satellite imagery from NOAA/NESDIS.
Fiji weather observations from wunderground.

We'll be back on Saturday with an update on Winston.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Typhoon 11P

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2016 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 17:09:22 S Lon : 178:07:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.0 / 883.8mb/170.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.0 8.1 8.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +2.5C Cloud Region Temp : -80.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 125km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 50.4 degrees

************************************************* ***



Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #37
HURRICANE WARNING
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON, CATEGORY FIVE (09F)
0:00 AM FST February 20 2016
=============================
Northwest of Tonga Islands
East Of Lau Islands and Fiji

A HURRICANE WARNING is in force for Vanuabalavu, Yacata, Mago, Cicia, Tuvuca, Nayau, Koro, Gau, Vanuavatu, Taveuni, Qamea, Laucala, Ovalau, Wakaya, and southern Vanua Levu

A STORM WARNING is in force for Lakeba, Oneata, Moce, Komo, Namuka, Ogea, Moala, the rest of Vanua Levu and nearby smaller islands, Viti, Levu, Yasawa, and Mamanuca group

A GALE WARNING is in force for rest of Fiji Islands


At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston, Category Five (925 hPa) located at 17.3S 177.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots. Position good based on hourly GOES enhanced infrared and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
==============
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
160 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
130 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Eye well defined. Deep convection remains persistent. Eye warming and cloud tops cooling past 6 hours. Organization remains good. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C. System lies in low sheared environment. Outflow good to the south and west. Dvorak analysis based on ow eye surrounded by W in CMG ring with eye adjustment yields DT=6.5, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 17.3S 179.5W - 120 knots (CAT 5)
24 HRS 17.5S 178.7E - 115 knots (CAT 5)
48 HRS 18.1S 176.3E - 105 knots (CAT 4)
One question for Dr. Masters from myself is this...

Does the Big Island have enough Coastal shoreline for a significant surge to "pile up" and flood inland, or will most of the Storms energy go around the island, surge wise?



Sombering news with this apparent direct hit; hoping for the best and that the nations in that area (particularly New Zealand) and the UN will be ready to provide assistance as soon as the storm clears the island chain. The relatively small size does not help much if you take a direct hit from the strongest winds from a tight and strong storm like this one.





Quoting 7. weathermanwannabe:

Sombering news with this apparent direct hit; hoping for the best and the nations in that area (particularly New Zealand) and the UN will be ready to provide assistance as soon as the storm clears the island chain.  The relatively small size does not help much if you take a direct hit from the strongest winds from a tight and strong storm like this one.





gee probably wont be much left standing intact on those islands.
The islands rise in elevation quickly from the Shorelines.

A lil look back in History can tell us a lot about strong Impacts there.

Its nothing "new", .....
2km up the road should protect them at our current rate of change for at least the next 5-10 years, I would hope.

WE have the same problem in Alaska... Villages getting washed out to sea.
Hope Fiji can avoid catastrophe.

Would be interesting to create an animated representation of record-breaking tropical systems across the globe since 2005.
thanks.dr,
moving up means higher winds
  Thanks for the Updates, Dr. Masters and Bob Henson...
Thanks doks!

Just heard that Harper Lee died...2016 is killing off our favorite people.
boy oh boy this is looking fun even the gulf of MX is now showing sings of warming up thing are looking good so far for long track strong hurricane this season now if we can get rid of EL nino by late spring then this season could be a vary bad one

Quoting 14. PedleyCA:

  Thanks for the Updates, Dr. Masters and Bob Henson...



Ped - It's 11F where I am now..

SH112016 - Tropical Cyclone (>=96 kt) WINSTON

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery
click image for loop

   Was wondering how many stops you had to make? Seems like you made quick work of that...
Quoting 17. Dakster:



Ped - It's 11F where I am now..

Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone MSLP and Maximum Winds

Quoting 17. Dakster:



Ped - It's 11F where I am now..


good day too go for a swim with that kind of temper
Thank you for all the great info on the cyclones that have affected the region..Be nice for an eye wall regeneration cycle to begin before landfall. Would knock wind speeds down a bit..

    Starting to ramp up again. Check your email....

    CoCoRaHS reported .08 for yesterday to add to the .26 from the day before, so .34 for that storm and .55 for Feb.
Water year 4.71     10/1/15-02/19/16

24. bwi
The village near the resort where we vacationed recently was one of the villages targeted for at least partial relocation due to rising tides. Funding was provided by a German agency (mostly) and some space just above the current village was blasted clear (volcanic rock) to create level spaces for home that are currently at risk of inundation to move to. However, when the land was cleared, erosion silted up half of the village's tiny harbor! It's not a huge ecological problem I don't think, as much as an annoyance that they can only bring their small boats close the village on one side of the little peninsula now.

Much of Fiji is volcanic and mountainous, so storm surge problems will probably be localized to villages right along the coast. Main harbors at Suva area might have surge trouble in the left front quad, so if there's damage to boats and docks, supply ferries etc. to the smaller islands will probably be messed up for a while. Many areas are surrounded by protective reefs, so hopefully battering waves will be minimized as energy expends on the reef instead. (But hopefully not much reef damage though.) And local crop damage from wind or freshwater flooding could be a problem in lots of villages.
Quoting 21. Tazmanian:



good day too go for a swim with that kind of temper


Need a water softener though. And I am not a member of the Polar Bear Club and I really don't plan on joining either.

Ice Skating on a lake would be fun though.
Does sea level rise even matter in the conversation at least in regards to the coral atolls which are only a few feet above sea level, in light of the increasing intensity of tropical storms? The slow sea level rise impacts would take decades to manifest, whereas the increase is atoll-submerging storm frequency and intensity, I would think, will be cause for atoll inhabitants to relocate much sooner.. Hope the word has gotten out about Winston and that the people of Fiji are able to get to shelter..
From previous blog:

Quoting 397. Sfloridacat5:


One of the reasons Charley's storm surge wasn't huge (still around 9 ft. on North Captiva) was because Charley didn't intensify into a CAT4 until it was close to making landfall and (very important) Charley didn't spend very much time over the GOM. Charley moved at over 20 mph from Cuba to S.W. Florida and that didn't give it a lot of time to build a large storm surge.

But as you mentioned, Charley was a smaller system and that also played a part.


It is the speed and duration that count the most though. Large systems will produce large surge over a larger area in the same way they do so with winds, which intuitively makes sense. However, small violent hurricanes are absolutely capable of producing destructive surge events. Hurricane Camille produced one of the worse surge events in U.S. history, and it was a tiny Charley or Andrew sized hurricane. But it wasn't moving as quick, and spent a lot time in the gulf.
Also, Typhoon Haiyan was also a small, tight system, and it has produced the most severe surge that I'm aware of in modern history. Storm Chasers a good bit inland at an elevation over 20 ft still experienced incredible high and fast moving surge, and coastal areas were wiped out by a surge event that was more like a massive tsunami.

There are actually man other factors that determine the destructive potential for surge, such as wind vector angles relative to the coast, duration of surge trajectories relative to the coast, ocean depth, angle of making landfall, and also streamline flow around a TC. That's a reason storm surge models exist, since storm surge is from from being a simple function of the wind intensity as the old saffir-simpson scale has.

It's also worth mentioning that more violent systems have surge that moves at a faster speed and has greater destructive force behind it. Haiyan's surge that behaved more like a tsunami is a good example. And look at Charley, though it's surge wasn't very tall, it completely destroyed portions of captiva island. If Charley had more time over water, and the eye passed over Pinellas County with the eastern eyewall over Tampa Bay/Tampa, the surge would likely have been terrible, especially since Charley was in an RI phase, and was likely going to be a category 5 hurricane if it had continued towards Tampa.
Quoting 26. JNFlori30A:

Does sea level rise even matter in the conversation at least in regards to the coral atolls which are only a few feet above sea level, in light of the increasing intensity of tropical storms? The slow sea level rise impacts would take decades to manifest, whereas the increase is atoll-submerging storm frequency and intensity, I would think, will be cause for atoll inhabitants to relocate much sooner.. Hope the word has gotten out about Winston and that the people of Fiji are able to get to shelter..


The local news there from papers to TV are saying look out, here it comes. So one would hope they know about it and are preparing for it.

http://www.fijitimes.com/

Washington Post: Scientists are floored by what’s happening in the Arctic right now



Temperature anomalies for January, 2016. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

By Chris Mooney

New data from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggest that January of 2016 was, for the globe, a truly extraordinary month. Coming off the hottest year ever recorded (2015), January saw the greatest departure from average of any month on record, according to data provided by NASA.

[January was the ninth straight month of record breaking global warmth]

But as you can see in the NASA figure above, the record breaking heat wasn’t uniformly distributed — it was particularly pronounced at the top of the world, showing temperature anomalies above 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than the 1951 to 1980 average in this region.

Indeed, NASA provides a “zonal mean” version of the temperature map above, which shows how the temperature departures from average change based on one’s latitude location on the Earth. As you can see, things get especially warm, relative to what the Earth is used to, as you enter the very high latitudes:


(NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)
Global warming has long been known to be particularly intense in the Arctic — a phenomenon known as “Arctic amplification” — but even so, lately the phenomenon has been extremely pronounced.

[This is where the Earth is most vulnerable to big swings in climate]

This unusual Arctic heat has been accompanied by a new record low level for Arctic sea ice extent during the normally ice-packed month of January, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center — over 400,000 square miles below average for the month. And of course, that is closely tied to warm Arctic air temperatures.

“We’ve looked at the average January temperatures, and we look at what we call the 925 millibar level, about 3,000 feet up in the atmosphere,” says Mark Serreze, the center’s director. “And it was, I would say, absurdly warm across the entire Arctic Ocean.” The center reports temperature anomalies at this altitude of “more than 6 degrees Celsius (13 degrees Fahrenheit) above average” for the month.

The low sea ice situation has now continued into February. Current ice extent is well below levels at the same point in 2012, which went on to set the current record for the lowest sea ice minimum extent:

more:......

omg

Eye moving north of the track.
31. bwi
Looks like both the 12z EC and GFS have TC Winston running the Bligh Water (between the two largest Fiji Islands). GFS then turns due south well off Fiji and away from land areas, but ECMWF turns southeast, perilously close to Kadavu before turning south.
Quoting 30. Gearsts:

omg



The forecasted turn in track to the south will be crucial in terms of significant impacts to FIJI. Starting to look like Vanua is going to take a harder hit than Viti. Seems like maybe Winston, as stated before, has been slightly north and west of his forecast track from word go of 3 days ago...

Thanks for the update gentlemen! More bizarre happenings from around the world! Total rainfall from yesterdays storm at my locale was 0.06 Whhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaattttttttttttttttt tttttttttttttttt?
Typhoon WINSTON
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2016 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 17:10:30 S Lon : 178:35:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.1 / 880.3mb/173.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.1 8.2 8.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +5.1C Cloud Region Temp : -80.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 125km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 49.9 degrees

************************************************* ***



200 mph. Been happening a lot, lately. Anyone would think things are heating up.
Eeywall replacement?

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.1 / 880.3mb/173.0kt

Is that current strength Pat? Holy Bejesus! if it is.
Quoting 37. HurricaneHunterJoe:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.1 / 880.3mb/173.0kt

Is that current strength Pat? Holy Bejesus! if it is.


Off da chart.

This is rarely seen..
Quoting 36. NoobDave:

Eeywall replacement?




Or the eye is gonna be 3 miles wide!
Winston gonna do a Patricia redux?


Winston can beat some records
Quoting 38. Patrap:

10 Minute Floater 1 Band 3 (0.64 m, 0.5 km)
that's old
45. bwi
By radar and sat, Taveuni now looks to be a possible landfall target. Currently over some atolls in northern Lau group I think.
Quoting 36. NoobDave:

Eeywall replacement?




You pointed this out yesterday nice call by the way, although I do not think it is full blown annular yet, but still, interesting fluctuations right now ongoing with respect to the satellite imagery right now. If it is indeed going through an eye wall replacement cycle that may not necessarily be good news for the Islands. We may be looking at two different wind maximum within the structure as it completes it's cycle. Wind radius usually expand with eye wall replacement cycles too...

From Doc's Blog Today

"Winston had a large area of heavy thunderstorms concentrated in a donut shape around a 18-mile diameter eye, with very few outer spiral bands. This structure may qualify Winston as an "annular" hurricane--a special subclass of hurricanes which are more resistant to weakening than regular hurricanes."

Looks like it is intensifying..Notice the band feeding into the eyewall..

Dvorak Loop

A track between the islands is now very possible.
Certainly looking like an eye wall replacement ongoing per radar. Hard to tell for certain, but the hint is there...



Himawari 8 HI-RES image visible
Quoting 48. hydrus:

Looks like it is intensifying..Notice the band feeding into the eyewall..


Looks like dry air.
Fiji Radar



Sorry didn't see previous radar posts.
I like your avatar Pat!
Quoting 41. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Or the eye is gonna be 3 miles wide!


The Typhoon is completely insolated from any dry air,...as the WV loop shows easily.





Quoting 60. Patrap:

The Typhoon is completely insolated from any dry air,...as the WV loop shows easily.






Yep..A direct flow from the warm ocean water into the CDO...Prayers to those in the path... Extremely dangerous storm ..
63. bwi
That first vis sat pic from the Japan satellite certainly has "that Cat 5" look. Ugly
Quoting 60. Patrap:

The Typhoon is completely insolated from any dry air,...as the WV loop shows easily.






That loop doesn't show all the layers of dry air around the cyclone.
Quoting 24. bwi:

The village near the resort where we vacationed recently was one of the villages targeted for at least partial relocation due to rising tides. Funding was provided by a German agency (mostly) and some space just above the current village was blasted clear (volcanic rock) to create level spaces for home that are currently at risk of inundation to move to. However, when the land was cleared, erosion silted up half of the village's tiny harbor! It's not a huge ecological problem I don't think, as much as an annoyance that they can only bring their small boats close the village on one side of the little peninsula now.

Much of Fiji is volcanic and mountainous, so storm surge problems will probably be localized to villages right along the coast. Main harbors at Suva area might have surge trouble in the left front quad, so if there's damage to boats and docks, supply ferries etc. to the smaller islands will probably be messed up for a while. Many areas are surrounded by protective reefs, so hopefully battering waves will be minimized as energy expends on the reef instead. (But hopefully not much reef damage though.) And local crop damage from wind or freshwater flooding could be a problem in lots of villages.
The reefs and all those various corals are a pretty amazing experience. It was some of the sweatiest diving I've ever done though, with water temperatures even at 100 feet of 85. My main fear is significant damage to the airport at Nadi. It's their only international airport, and is the gateway for 96% of the tourist traffic. If it's closed for any length of time, the Fijian economy will take a big hit. I'm not as worried about the villages on the north side of Viti Levu. Most of them are up off the beach, and the hills behind them offer a good shelter from sea surge. I think Suva will be mostly OK in this since it's protected to the north by some pretty good size mountains, but the exact path of Winston will be all important in the outcome.
11P WINSTON
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 19, 2016:

Location: 17.2°S 178.9°W
Maximum Winds: 145 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 914 mb

PAM PART 2
Day Convective Storm RGB channel HIMAWARI 8



Off Topic:

A nice collection of nature photos, including several meteorlogic in character, from the Daily Mail: Link

It would be interesting to be in Fiji tomorrow. One wouldn't CHOOSE it of course, but it sure would be dramatic. Hopefully the people are well warned and are brought from the lower areas ahead.
Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2016 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 17:10:50 S Lon : 178:46:46 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.1 / 879.5mb/173.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.1 8.1 8.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +5.3C Cloud Region Temp : -79.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 142km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 49.7 degrees

************************************************* ***


Vanua Balavu Island reported a gust of 106 mph from the south.
Quoting 58. Patrap:



Poor island just eaten by Winston's eye is Vanua Balavu, 1200 inhabitants.

Source of the map: Wiki/Maikele

This coral and volcanic island has a land area of 53 square kilometers. Its maximum elevation is 283 meters. The island is characterized by steep undercut cliffs, with fertile volcanic soil. It is well watered and has hot springs. There is an extensive reef system, including the islets of Qilaqila Bay. The main village on the island is Lomaloma.
Looks like eyewall hit the island of VANUA BALAVU

Link
YIKES....
Quoting 71. barbamz:


Poor island just eaten by Winston's eye is Vanua Balavu, 1200 inhabitants.

Source of the map: Wiki/Maikele

This coral and volcanic island has a land area of 53 square kilometers. Its maximum elevation is 283 meters. The island is characterized by steep undercut cliffs, with fertile volcanic soil. It is well watered and has hot springs. There is an extensive reef system, including the islets of Qilaqila Bay. The main village on the island is Lomaloma.


You guys are fast!
Any live streams?
76. bwi
We lost count of the sharks we saw. Very healthy reef system where we dove.

Quoting 65. sar2401:

The reefs and all those various corals are a pretty amazing experience. It was some of the sweatiest diving I've ever done though, with water temperatures even at 100 feet of 85. My main fear is significant damage to the airport at Nadi. It's their only international airport, and is the gateway for 96% of the tourist traffic. If it's closed for any length of time, the Fijian economy will take a big hit. I'm not as worried about the villages on the north side of Viti Levu. Most of them are up off the beach, and the hills behind them offer a good shelter from sea surge. I think Suva will be mostly OK in this since it's protected to the north by some pretty good size mountains, but the exact path of Winston will be all important in the outcome.
Quoting 62. hydrus:

Yep..A direct flow from the warm ocean water into the CDO...Prayers to those in the path... Extremely dangerous storm ..


Looks like it has 4 islands lined up for direct hits! Hope it wobbles in a good way!
Quoting 66. pablosyn:

11P WINSTON
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 19, 2016:

Location: 17.2°S 178.9°W
Maximum Winds: 145 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 914 mb

PAM PART 2



jeff or bob needs to up date the topic it says cat 4 but it needs too be cat 5
Quoting 77. Patrap:




Dat is one nasty feller! And a nasty inflow band!
Quoting 74. HurricaneHunterJoe:

You guys are fast!

:-) I use to check out remote places like this first by Google Earth.
Quoting 81. barbamz:


:-) I use to check out remote places like this first by Google Earth.
Me to. My brain and fingers don't work like they used to!......LOL
The latest update I can find

Typhoon 11P

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2016 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 17:11:12 S Lon : 178:52:10 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 917.8mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 8.0 8.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : 9.2C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 142km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 49.6 degrees

************************************************* ***
Quoting 79. Tazmanian:




jeff or bob needs to up date the topic it says cat 4 but it needs too be cat 5


Here's the BAT PHONE Taz!
radio.fiji..
http://rf1.fbc.com.fj/
This one is hot off the charts

Typhoon 11P

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2016 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 17:18:27 S Lon : 178:47:38 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 917.8mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.8 7.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +5.3C Cloud Region Temp : -78.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 142km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 49.8 degrees

************************************************* ***
87. bwi
Taveuni first major landfall I think

CIMSS did something to the ADT file. The recent outputs are considerably lower than they were in real time.
Jeff, I think you mean COP21, not COP15.
Quoting 88. 1900hurricane:

CIMSS did something to the ADT file. The recent outputs are considerably lower than they were in real time.


Here are the last 12 hours or so of observations

2016FEB19 072200 6.3 931.5 122.2
2016FEB19 085200 6.4 929.3 124.6
2016FEB19 095200 6.4 929.3 124.6
2016FEB19 105200 6.5 927.1 127.0
2016FEB19 115200 6.6 924.7 129.6
2016FEB19 125200 6.7 923.2 132.2
2016FEB19 135200 6.7 923.2 132.2
2016FEB19 145200 6.7 923.2 132.2
2016FEB19 155200 6.7 923.2 132.2
2016FEB19 165200 6.9 918.2 137.4
2016FEB19 175200 6.9 918.2 137.4
2016FEB19 185200 6.9 917.9 137.4

Edit: skipped half of the reading to save space
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 178.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 178.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.0S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
95. bwi
I don't know what 163 knots mean.
Quoting 96. washingtonian115:

I don't know what 163 knots mean.
184mph
Quoting 96. washingtonian115:

I don't know what 163 knots mean.


1 kt = 1.15 mph

edit I goofed the order
Quoting 98. win1gamegiantsplease:



1 mph = 1.15 kt


It's the other way around. One knot = 1.15 miles

Quoting 98. win1gamegiantsplease:



1 mph = 1.15 kt


You may want to check that, you have it backwards
Quoting 94. Claudette1234:




It sounds corny, but what a majestic beast. I hope Fiji comes out of this ok, but it's a daft hope.
Quoting 100. nymore:



You may want to check that, you have it backwards


You're correct, I typed the opposite of what I thought >|-0
Those homes look so vulnerable ... erased by a strong Cat 4 storm

Quoting 97. jambev:

184mph
Thank you.
Quoting 99. georgevandenberghe:



It's the other way around. One knot = 1.15 miles




And I'm graduating with a physics degree and math minor by this year's end. Watch out world...
106. bwi
About the only good thing I can think to say about TC Winston is that it's relatively compact and, so far at least, relatively fast moving.

I hope it doesn't stall near the Yasawa Islands. And I really hope it doesn't turn south too soon.
The Latest

Typhoon 11P

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2016 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 17:11:40 S Lon : 179:07:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 915.3mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.8 7.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +6.0C Cloud Region Temp : -78.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 142km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 49.4 degrees

************************************************* ***
Quoting 92. nymore:



Here are the last 12 hours or so of observations

2016FEB19 072200 6.3 931.5 122.2
2016FEB19 085200 6.4 929.3 124.6
2016FEB19 095200 6.4 929.3 124.6
2016FEB19 105200 6.5 927.1 127.0
2016FEB19 115200 6.6 924.7 129.6
2016FEB19 125200 6.7 923.2 132.2
2016FEB19 135200 6.7 923.2 132.2
2016FEB19 145200 6.7 923.2 132.2
2016FEB19 155200 6.7 923.2 132.2
2016FEB19 165200 6.9 918.2 137.4
2016FEB19 175200 6.9 918.2 137.4
2016FEB19 185200 6.9 917.9 137.4

Edit: skipped half of the reading to save space

And those are different than the CIs that were being spit out real-time. Here's a screenshot of one of the ones I saw earlier in real-time.

Kinda cool interactive global weather map [Link]
Quoting 108. 1900hurricane:


And those are different than the CIs that were being spit out real-time. Here's a screenshot of one of the ones I saw earlier in real-time.




Did you check it against previous readings to see if it was an outlier. It looks like it might have been just like the one posted earlier today.

2016FEB19 150000 6.7 923.2 132.2
2016FEB19 155200 6.7 923.2 132.2
Quoting 110. nymore:



Did you check it against previous readings to see if it was an outlier. It looks like it might have been just like the one posted earlier today.

2016FEB19 150000 6.7 923.2 132.2
2016FEB19 155200 6.7 923.2 132.2

I certainly did. They've been adjusted somehow. One of the adjustments was switching the satellite from Himawari-8 to GOES-15 after the fact, but that alone wouldn't explain how they dropped everything a full T number.


Thoughts to those affected in Fiji, let's hope threads the needle as forecast by the JTWC (Click to enlarge). Predicted to increase in strength to winds of 160kts (185mph). A slight jog southward could have it slamming into the main island. Either way high winds and lots of rain for Fiji over the next few days.
Quoting 111. 1900hurricane:


I certainly did. They've been adjusted somehow. One of the adjustments was switching the satellite from Himawari-8 to GOES-15 after the fact, but that alone wouldn't explain how they dropped everything a full T number.


They are back to Himawari-8 now. I was not paying attention to it at that time so can offer no opinion on the matter.
Quoting 96. washingtonian115:

I don't know what 163 knots mean.


Nice conversion chart vs. calculator Link


157 Knots = 180.67 MPH
158 Knots = 181.82 MPH
159 Knots = 182.97 MPH
160 Knots = 184.12 MPH
161 Knots = 185.27 MPH
162 Knots = 186.42 MPH
163 Knots = 187.57 MPH
164 Knots = 188.72 MPH
165 Knots = 189.88 MPH
166 Knots = 191.03 MPH
167 Knots = 192.18 MPH
168 Knots = 193.33 MPH
169 Knots = 194.48 MPH
170 Knots = 195.63 MPH
171 Knots = 196.78 MPH
172 Knots = 197.93 MPH
173 Knots = 199.08 MPH
174 Knots = 200.23 MPH
175 Knots = 201.38 MPH
According to UW-CIMSS it is cranking up now but this also looks like an outlier

Typhoon 11P

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2016 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 17:10:55 S Lon : 179:13:51 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 909.2mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.7 7.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -1.0C Cloud Region Temp : -78.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 142km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 49.3 degrees
Quoting 96. washingtonian115:

I don't know what 163 knots mean.


The JTWC forecast :
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.0S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

Here's a conversion table -
160 knots = 184.125mph
195 knots = 224.402 mph
Quoting 102. win1gamegiantsplease:



You're correct, I typed the opposite of what I thought >|-0

misteaks happen
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 22 minhace 22 minutos Lafayette, CA
#Winston now a Cat 5 hurricane with max winds of 145 kts. Forecast to track just north of main island of #Fiji

Not related to Winston

But I think the President's day snow storm was the last of the winter season.It will probably get unseasonably cool for the last few days of February into early March..but that is about it with more unnecessary rain.Our snow season is over with and if it wasn't for snowzilla I would only have 6 and a half inches for this winter.
Sure enough it was an outlier

Typhoon 11P

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2016 Time : 205000 UTC
Lat : 17:10:26 S Lon : 179:11:57 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 917.9mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : -7.2C Cloud Region Temp : -77.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 142km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 49.3 degrees

************************************************* ***
The JTWC plot of this thing is just nuts

Quoting 76. bwi:

We lost count of the sharks we saw. Very healthy reef system where we dove.


Yes, I made the mistake of doing a night dive up the Yasawas. I had a 17 foot (OK, probably not that big, but it looked that big) monster cross the beam of my underwater light and then decide to make right for me. Luckily, I wasn't far from the boat. You've never seen a diver with full gear rocket onto a dive platform that fast, believe me. It was the only shark I saw that close to me in the whole 10 days. I also only saw one sea snake, which was one of the reasons why we went to Fiji. My wife and sister in law, being in mortal terror of any snakes, saw tons of them, of course. :-)
ADT is making me want to tear my hair out today. In what world does a warmer eye temp and colder CDO yield a raw T .5 below the previous one (2050 vs 2040 analyses)???
1900 is correct; something has been adjusted on the CIMSS ADT display. No other reason the numbers would've dropped that much, the storm structure has hardly changed. The new numbers look better to me (maybe a little low). Winston is very strong, but it doesn't quite have the "classic" appearance of other very powerful storms in the past. Not much banding and the the eye is a bit ragged and not especially warm. The storm is not perfectly annular either though, despite having some of those characteristics. I'd estimate its intensity at 145kts, but about 15kts of give or take. Practically speaking, not much difference.
Quoting 114. Sfloridacat5:



Nice conversion chart vs. calculator Link


157 Knots = 180.67 MPH
158 Knots = 181.82 MPH
159 Knots = 182.97 MPH
160 Knots = 184.12 MPH
161 Knots = 185.27 MPH
162 Knots = 186.42 MPH
163 Knots = 187.57 MPH
164 Knots = 188.72 MPH
165 Knots = 189.88 MPH
166 Knots = 191.03 MPH
167 Knots = 192.18 MPH
168 Knots = 193.33 MPH
169 Knots = 194.48 MPH
170 Knots = 195.63 MPH
171 Knots = 196.78 MPH
172 Knots = 197.93 MPH
173 Knots = 199.08 MPH
174 Knots = 200.23 MPH
175 Knots = 201.38 MPH


I ended up getting a unit converter app for my phone, mainly for bars to mercury and stuff for class; also does currency and updates daily. Nowadays I usually use mostly it for mL to fl oz.

Quoting 117. georgevandenberghe:


misteaks happen


Almost didn't catch that. 0-2
Quoting 125. win1gamegiantsplease:



I ended up getting a unit converter app for my phone, mainly for bars to mercury and stuff for class; also does currency and updates daily. Nowadays I usually use mostly it for mL to fl oz.



Almost didn't catch that. 0-2


Yeah, those are good. I'm always needing to convert Fahrenheit to Celsius.
127. bwi
Quoting 122. sar2401:

Yes, I made the mistake of doing a night dive up the Yasawas. I had a 17 foot (OK, probably not that big, but it looked that big) monster cross the beam of my underwater light and then decide to make right for me. Luckily, I wasn't far from the boat. You've never seen a diver with full gear rocket onto a dive platform that fast, believe me. It was the only shark I saw that close to me in the whole 10 days. I also only saw one sea snake, which was one of the reasons why we went to Fiji. My wife and sister in law, being in mortal terror of any snakes, saw tons of them, of course. :-)


We only saw reef sharks and a lemon shark. The local dive guides where we were don't take tourists to the spots where the big nasty guys hang out!


2016FEB19 210000 8.0 892.2 +2.2 170.0 -17.14 179.54

ADT from Nadi

Quoting 103. Melagoo:

Those homes look so vulnerable ... erased by a strong Cat 4 storm


That whole project has been one of those classic multi agency, multinational messes that ended up costing about $35,000 a house. The foreign project managers really didn't understand Fijian culture and how land ownership works there. The hillside was claimed by all kinds of families having ancestors that have lived there for hundreds of years, and there was basically no paperwork to substantiate any of the claims. It finally took two years of meetings, much kava being drunk, much money changing hands, and one of the paramount chiefs to mediate the whole thing. All this was before the first spade of dirt was turned. The houses themselves are built with very strong walls but just loosely attached roofs. That's the way things are built in Fiji, since people just go gather up the zinc after the storm and nail it back on. They have learned from long experience there's no way to keep any roof on during a bad cyclone. Those homes could have been built anywhere else in Fiji for about $15,000. Maybe the next projects will learn from the mistakes of this one.
Upon research it seems that the north shore of Viti Levu isn't as populated as the south (where the capital Suva is). Many of the resorts are on islands off the west coast of the island. If you want to look at a webcam in the future that's where the locations will likely be filmed from.
Quoting 127. bwi:



We only saw reef sharks and a lemon shark. The local dive guides where we were don't take tourists to the spots where the big nasty guys hang out!
Turned out this was a tiger shark, and a big one at that. The only dangerous sharks there are the bulls and tigers and, according to our guide and boat captain, they sleep at night. I know that's true because I saw a bull shark snoozing on a coral shelf. Apparently this tiger had gotten up, probably for the same reason I get up at night. He must have looked over and thought "midnight snack!". Our guide came rocketing out of water directly after me, so at least it wasn't just me being a wimp. :-)
Quoting 119. washingtonian115:

Not related to Winston

But I think the President's day snow storm was the last of the winter season.It will probably get unseasonably cool for the last few days of February into early March..but that is about it with more unnecessary rain.Our snow season is over with and if it wasn't for snowzilla I would only have 6 and a half inches for this winter.


March 29 or so 1942 after a winter that produced 1.5" of snow, another foot plus fell that day. It ain't over till April 10 or so.

The climatological sharp dropoff in snow event frequency here happens about March 10. My hunch is we aren't done.

Looks like the eye might go between the two large islands.

Quoting 130. win1gamegiantsplease:

Upon research it seems that the north shore of Viti Levu isn't as populated as the south (where the capital Suva is). Many of the resorts are on islands off the west coast of the island. If you want to look at a webcam in the future that's where the locations will likely be filmed from.
There are very few people on the north coast of Viti Levu compared to the urban areas of Nadi/Lautoka and Suva. Even the road system, such as it is, leaves the coast east of Rakiraki and heads inland over the hills because of the cliff landscape east of there. I don't know what the population of the districts on the north coast is but I'd guess less than 50,000, most of whom live nearer to Lautoka than Rakiraki. We had to take a bus, such as it was, from Suva to Lautoka to get to our boat. We were lucky enough to be there in the middle of a military coup, and the airports were shut down. It was a long, hot, dusty trip.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 89. AstroHurricane001:

Jeff, I think you mean COP21, not COP15.


Indeed! Thanks, Astro...fixing now.
138. vis0

Quoting 96. washingtonian115:

I don't know what 163 knots mean.
i thuink washi115 means as to real life experience.  These numbers show that damage is going to be the worst yet "damage" becomes an understatement as to actually "feel " that force it cannot be imagined. ("feel" as in be inside well protected and hear the deafening sounds of things whooshing by as if one is an ant on a major highway. (Those that went through major hurricanes understand) Prayers that people stay in protected areas and not come out during any eyel passge as those that have gone through these devastating storms will tell you that the eye's passage is quicker than expected since the incoming eye at least gave one a steadily rising show of strength as in a step by step 75 mph, 90, 105, 110, 120, 139 mph. In the incoming eyewall's wrap around it goes from calm to 110mph when you brain expects a step by step rise and one gets slammed by not just winds but anything being catapulted by the strong winds.