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Tropics remain quiet, typical for June

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:35 PM GMT on June 09, 2008

Although we got an early start to the 2008 hurricane season, things have since slowed down and returned to normal. I spent quite some time this morning scouring through the models and satellite images looking for some signs of tropical development, but none was to be found. The only action in the Atlantic is a weak upper level low moving from the Bahamas across South Florida today. Conditions are not favorable for development as the low enters the Gulf of Mexico.

2xat_vi.gif
Atlantic visible satellite

It is still very early in the season. Usually we wouldn't have seen a single storm by this point. Considering that the official long term 'forecasts' all called for climatology, this season remains unremarkable. We're still a couple months away from things getting very exciting.

peakofseason.gif
Hurricane frequency by date (Credit: NOAA)

If you're looking for tropical development in the Atlantic at this time of year, your best bet is looking in the southern Gulf and western Caribbean. It is still very early to see development in the Atlantic proper. Wind shear is still strong at higher latitudes and the central Atlantic has yet to warm to temperatures conducive for tropical development.

June_climo.jpg
June hurricane genesis index and locations (Emanuel and Nolan 2004)

Elsewhere in the country, the severe weather situation seems to have quieted down from earlier in the season. While there are still active areas associated with frontal boundaries draped across the eastern half of the continent, they are significantly less active than earlier this season. Usually by June the severe weather season shifts to the High Plains. Those storms are associated with potential vorticity anomalies advecting off of the Rockies. Below you will find a map of yesterday's severe reports. A similar, though slightly advected pattern is expected today.

080608_rpts.gif
Yesterday's severe weather reports from SPC

Bryan Woods, filling in for Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. 0741
0741 invest 92?
where did 91 go? =P
ok 91 i only gave chance wave only 10%
1000. JLPR 5:17 PM AST on June 10, 2008
0741 invest 92?
where did 91 go? =P


90L - Arthur
91L - Next


90E - Alma
91E - the disturbance that develop south of Mexico after Arthur
92E - Currently out there.
WOW! The arctic ice is shrinking.... Just out of curiousity, did it ever cross anyone's mind that it's also close to SUMMER in the northern hemisphere? Hmm. Guess that was an oversight... I have an idea... If it's summer in the northern hemisphere, then it must be winter in the southern hemisphere. I don't know this to be a fact, but something tells me that maybe... just maybe, the antarctic ice sheet is growing... WOW! What a coincidence.... One shrinks while the other grows. It's called seasons, I think. At least that's what they tried to teach me in grade school...
1004. JLPR
yeah 10% sounds right =)
This is just a blob for the moment , nothing else =P just watch it and enjoy =D
I sure hope with the real rain in FLA, the tomato industry will thrive.
Makes you wonder whats in the water they irragate with doesn't it!

just a thought!
I hate being a jerk, but the next thing that going to come up is "the earth's ice caps are melting. Let's protect the polar bears..."
1007. Patrap
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico Link
1008. Patrap
Hey kman..that lil surface low has been a real mover.Its been ahead of the convection for some time now.Saw that this am in the vis.Was a neat feature /surprise.
Have fun bloggers, back later or tomorrow!
1003. ROFLMAO!!!
1011. Patrap
GOES-12 GOM in 3 Channels,IR,WV and Low cloud vis. Link

Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours) Link
Thank you, thank you.... I'll be here all night....
1013. IKE
12Z ECMWF....

Link
1012. Sarcasm is my weak spot.... well I understand your claim completely. And also believe that whatever happens in the world Ice melt warming temps ect is inevitable....
1015. msphar
still cheering the shear
Well, it always leads to the same old discussion with the same old solutions to a problem for which isn't really all that understood. All too often, man's first thing to do is lose his head and start to panic and think irrationally...
1017. Patrap
UNYSIS 10-day GFSx Link
whats going on with the wave guys?
1019. Patrap


NHC Forecast Model Background and Information

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not generate a graphic of the models it uses to produce its forecasts. We do this because our past experience indicates such plots have confused users and detracted from our final message, which is producing official tropical cyclone forecasts and advisories. Some users have also become too reliant in the individual forecast scenarios presented by the many model forecast lines, some of which have little or no chance of being correct. This is not the message the NHC wants to send. (Please read our Mission and Vision). Link
1020. IKE
1018. barbadosjulie 4:47 PM CDT on June 10, 2008
whats going on with the wave guys?


Still headed for the islands.....
1016. Exactly
1022. Patrap
WAVETRAK 5 day Northern Atlantic Java Loop Link
Stormchaser2007, I am pretty sure with all my rants, I've benen put on ignore by many bloggers in here.
1024. Patrap

Alternate Real-Time Tropical Cyclone Sites Link
1023. Nah there focused on the wave...lol
1026. IKE
barbadosjulie....it's about 400 miles to your east-southeast.
1027. Patrap

Perspectivas del Tiempo Tropical.
Centro de Pronósticos, INSMET.
Fecha: 10 de Junio de 2008. Hora: 9:00 am.


En la cuenca del Océano Atlántico, el Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México no se espera desarrollo ciclónico tropical en las próximas 24 a 48 horas.Link
Sheer wont completely break it up right? i want & need the rain.
1029. IKE
1028. barbadosjulie 4:58 PM CDT on June 10, 2008
Sheer wont completely break it up right? i want & need the rain.


Looks like you're gonna get some rain. Your forecast calls for an 80% chance of rain on Friday...verifies with the latest GFS 18Z model run which is out through 66 hours...

Link

1031. DDR
Patrap would you mine resizing your post,although i can't see you now.
1032. DDR
Does anyone know if that area of convection behind the wave @ 50W is another tropical wave?
Man some really bad stuff near my parents house in Pa!!

1034. Patrap
Groundtrack and times for ISS pass tonight for the South & Midwest,all times are CDT.

1036. msphar
ddr - use this page for seeing wave positioning

http://dadecosurf.com/tanal.html
1037. Patrap
LOL..My ISS Pass chart stabs that storm below 30 90.
1038. IKE
1032. DDR 5:02 PM CDT on June 10, 2008
Does anyone know if that area of convection behind the wave @ 50W is another tropical wave?


From the latest North Atlantic discussion....

"...Tropical waves...

Tropical wave is along 52w S of 15n moving W near 15-20 kt.
Inverted-v low level cloud signature is visible on satellite
imagery while the mimic-tpw animation shows the axis embedded
within a broad moisture surge. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 9n-12n between 48w-53w."
Hello all, I don't know if anyone posted this earlier but here is a link to a story in today's sun-sentinel regarding dry Mays and hurricane threats to South Florida in August and September. Basically, the gist of the story is that when Mays are dry (due to a strong high pressure ridge, the ridge tends to come back in late August and September causing an anecdotal relationship between dry Mays and a bad hurricane season for us here in South Florida. Hurricane Andrew occured in a year with a dry May. So too was 2004.
Link
stormchaser2007 about where do your parents live in PA, i have a brother in york and he said they are under a storm warning
1041. IKE
Latest 18Z GFS has the wave at 52W crossing the islands and heading for PR and DR.......

Link
The Bajans are all assembling as the tropics slowly start to heat up LOL

Hey Barbados don't fall in the cracks they are becoming quite large on my front lawn
1003. fire831rescue 4:26 PM CDT on June 10, 2008
WOW! The arctic ice is shrinking.... Just out of curiousity, did it ever cross anyone's mind that it's also close to SUMMER in the northern hemisphere? Hmm. Guess that was an oversight... I have an idea... If it's summer in the northern hemisphere, then it must be winter in the southern hemisphere. I don't know this to be a fact, but something tells me that maybe... just maybe, the antarctic ice sheet is growing... WOW! What a coincidence.... One shrinks while the other grows. It's called seasons, I think. At least that's what they tried to teach me in grade school...


LOL!!!!

Then what about this? Not just shrinking, but FASTER than usual - and right at the record melt last year, despite a higher maximum extent in the winter - thus it is melting even faster than last year:



I think it is likely that the North Pole will look like this in September this year, perhaps many denialists will finally fold if this happens:

Hey folks thats dark red on the IR for that wave 50w. Real dark. Id believe it at the end of July not middle June.
Severe, They live 2 miles NE of Scranton.... hope they'll be alright.

Hey Everyone,
It has been way to hot out this week. I think my thermometer is broken, it says it was 120 degrees in southern New York. Yeah it was hot, but not that hot =) It was 90 degrees in MY BEDROOM!! and i believe that.

i haven't been online in a few days, does anyone want to fill me in on what's been going on lately in the tropics?
Good evening all
good evening, stormdude77
Diurnal Minimum taking its toll on the Wave....

Nice looking wave at 10N, 53W. More welcome rain across the Southern Windwards. However, westerly wind shear is blowing the convection off to the east. Is there a TUTT centered around the wave?
Hey Ryan!! Hope you guys get some rain down there!
1054. JLPR
The convection with the wave seems to be building in the area where we could have a low trying to form plus a anticlone is getting to close to this wave so it could actually have a day of favorable shear lol I don't really know whats going to happen with this one=S =P
I just hope South America ends it =D
1055. JLPR
wow lol I killed the blog =P
my guess is this wave could tonight get to invest status just to get completely torn apart tomorrow by wind shear
1056. SLU
It looks like some rain is headed for my area over the next few days. :)

10n 53w looks very impressive for a CATL wave for early June. Keep and eye on 6n 40w too. The GFS has been a bit excited about it for a few days now.
Blow up of Convection near the COC.....

1058. Michfan
LOL its that dinner time lull.
1059. guygee
1043. MichaelSTL 10:19 PM GMT on June 10, 2008
...Not just shrinking, but FASTER than usual - and right at the record melt last year, despite a higher maximum extent in the winter - thus it is melting even faster than last year

Not so surprising STL, since multi-year ice in the Arctic is at an all-time low since any reasonable measurements have begun, and almost certainly from far before that. Even during the period from October 01, 2007, to March 15, 2008 multi-year ice continued flushing out of the Arctic basin down the east coast of Greenland and out into the North Atlantic, as this AVI movie derived from AMSR-E 89Ghz data shows.
Mich, you better be glad we get that dinner time lull. cause when the season gets busy, the blog will lull and then go nutso.
1061. pottery
Wha !! Just checking in briefly. What a swarm of Bajans on board tonight. Greetings from a Trini.
Hoping that the Wave in question does not get too far north and leave me dry !.
I'll be back later, to see the flare-up with it at 11:00 pm or so. If the westerlies dont eat it completely before then.
An upper anticyclonic circulation will be disrupted if westerly winds are too strong from the west.
As crazy as this may sound, this tropical wave looks like has become better organized over the past few hours as an impressive convective burst has formed over a developing low-level circulation this evening with even some banding taking place on the eastern side.
Has anybody seen this on the NOAA site yet? It's a nifty little feature they added this year.
1065. JLPR
yep cchsweatherman =P
Thats the effect of a anticlone very near to the tropical wave. This wave should look very interesting later tonight.
But tomorrow I think shear will do its job on this wave.
1064, yes I did:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101740
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Whats the shear forecast ahead of the system mentioned above?
I see the blog ate a post of mine, anyways, the question I raised that was eaten so to say is this.

What does everyone think of the small blowup due north of Central America? That area as of late has been where most of the action has been, any chance of that blowup helping to moisten up the atmosphere in that region anymore?
1070. JLPR
well with the upper level anticlone breaking down probably tomorrow the wave should enter an area of 20-40kts of wind shear
1071. CJ5
This is about the same spot the wave last week fell apart. It was looking very impressive as it tracked across but met its demise in this same location. Perhaps, this one will survive but its just too early unless everything comes together perfectly.
Very interesting wave indeed...
Anyone think this wave will hold together long enough to bring some much needed rain to FL and have a time frame for if/when this would occur? 40-50% chance of rain every day for the next 5 days and that seems isolated to evening seabreeze storms so I guess they aren't expecting much from this wave? Any thoughts? Thanks.
CChs, look to the rear of the wave. Is that a moisture train so to speak, developing to the rear of it?
1074. JLPR
Well lol yeah its about the same area =P
Just that this one may die because of the shear
the other one died because of the dry air =D
I just hope this prohibiting factors continue
1075. JLPR
the wave will probably stay south of Florida
Link

Take a look at the NOAA RGB loop, you can watch the tops of the developing system begin to shear apart. This might be occuring due to the sun setting.


This is a very impressvie disturbance off the Nicaraguan coast with some intense convection and what appears to be some organization. Just looking at satellite imagery, you can clearly see banding features and even some circulation with this. Not saying this will develop, but I will watch this for tropical development. It will remain under 20-25kt. wind shear, which is marginal for tropical development.
JL, I would love it if that prediction did not stay true. cause we need the rain, and its been hot enough here to fry an egg on a car hood as of late.
I kept seeing that distubance from the corner of my eye. haha. Which direction is it tracking in?
Wonder what the 8pm TWO will say?
I know that there was some mention earlier of this disturbance in a synopsis that I read. but no mention has been made of it since that point. I wonder if this is one of those under the radar style systems.
1083. jabjb2
hi all new here. We finally got rain here in mobile al. Where I live we got 4.25 in. This is the first rain in about a month. Looks like the summer evening storms are finnaly here. Any pridictions for any storms coming this way this year. Last one we had was katrina.
1084. guygee
Re: 1077. cchsweatherman
TPC identifies that convection associated with a tropical wave expected to move west. Will be interesting to watch.
1085. JLPR
Well lets hope it heads north =D
or how about a upper level low taking convection from the wave north up to you guys =D
This is weather, anything can happen =)thats the magic of it.
yeah tell me about it, dade and palm beach got nailed early in the day. we got nailed in the afternoon heavily by rain and hail.
456 by the looks of that shear forecast, I would think it would be a better idea to watch the SEUS coast in case anything pops up there...seems to show favorable conditions
JLPR- that's disappointing but what I expected... Guess we will just have to hope for a storm to form over us with that seabreeze. We got some sprinkles today but not nearly enough.
1089. CJ5
1074. JLPR 11:32 PM GMT on June 10, 2008
Well lol yeah its about the same area =P
Just that this one may die because of the shear


Actually, the last one over came the dry air and was eventually blown apart by shear. Just as this one may.
The blow up of the wave east of the Antilles and the previous wave, tells me that SST and the atmosphere can support convection there. I was beginning to think that wouldnt be the case until late next month.
xtreme, so no chance of that ULL transitioning to a low level system? thats about the only thing I see that could do anything other than that no name blob to the east of the ULL spinning around like crazy.
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 102343
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.


TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

1091.

ULL's don't often transition to low level systems, so I would say most likely, no.
1094. JLPR
thats true CJ5 =)
I said dry air because before getting to that spot that wave had a great structure with a low level circulation if dry air wouldn't have stopped it that wave would have developed in the Catl and then would have been torn apart by shear =D
Afternoon all :~)

cchs, not sure the SW Carib area really looks quite that interesting. First, that sat shot is using the scale that makes things look much more impressive then they really are.



This scale does reality much more justice.

Not to mention it looks as if shear may be a little high, and to top it all off, it should move on shore before too long if the models are accurate with the flow.

But still an interesting area to gander at for a bit :~)
1087. extreme236 7:42 PM AST on June 10, 2008
456 by the looks of that shear forecast, I would think it would be a better idea to watch the SEUS coast in case anything pops up there...seems to show favorable conditions


Yep.....also the Gulf of Mexico, which is June second breeding ground, becomes open for business in 5 days.
1097. JLPR
lol thats true Stormunkie, Cchs picture looks like a Depression formed there =)...
colors are pretty... =P
000
ABNT20 KNHC 102343
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
1099. guygee
1095. StormJunkie

LOL SJ, A case study in how we can be fooled by map projections. The earth is basically spheriodal after all.
1059. guygee 11:08 PM GMT on June 10, 2008

Not so surprising STL, since multi-year ice in the Arctic is at an all-time low since any reasonable measurements have begun(i.e.1979), and almost certainly from far before that.


Please do use the word all time to describe reasonable measurements that have only began being kept since 1979.

That is what we call a generalization, which can be awfully misleading.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

So, after 48 hours, there's a chance!!!LOL!!!
Spheroid A spheroid is an ellipsoid having two axes of equal length, making it is a surface of revolution. By convention, the two distinct axis lengths are denoted a and c, and the spheroid is oriented so that its axis of rotational symmetric is along the z-axis, giving it the parametric representation

Thanks guygee :~) Always learning something new here!
1104. JLPR
TCHP slowly spreading =S
my wave what has happened to it :(
Interesting Skye

I don't really like the way the shear on that map is forecast to remain high just N of the ITCZ, and yet slack off in the Gulf and near the E coast. Reminds me of something...
1108. guygee
1100. afcjags03

Please do use the word all time to describe reasonable measurements that have only began being kept since 1979.

That is what we call a generalization, which can be awfully misleading.


So you throw out all scientific data and evidence collected from surveys, missions and explorations of the Arctic prior to 1979?

That is even more misleading.

We may make inferences from data collected from prior times, although the uncertainty may be greater.

Even with satellite measurements, there are errors and uncertainties...you should know that!
1108

I do know that, but if we want to look at history, we also know that Greenland was green at one point prior to all this Co2 being in the air. Who's to say there was no ice in the Arctic then?
Hey stormjunkie- I hate to ask, but what is it reminding you of?
Convection tops are starting to warm with the CATL. This could be beacause off the strong wind shear, but I expect it to ''fire back up'' during the Dmax...
1113. guygee
1109. afcjags03 12:22 AM GMT on June 11, 2008
I do know that, but if we want to look at history, we also know that Greenland was green at one point prior to all this Co2 being in the air. Who's to say there was no ice in the Arctic then?

Greenland was Green? LOL! I shall sentence you to Wikipedia, sir, to learn,

"The Greenland ice sheet is almost 2,400 kilometers long in a north-south direction, and its greatest width is 1,100 kilometers at a latitude of 77° N, near its northern margin. The mean altitude of the ice is 2,135 meters. [1] The thickness is generally more than 2 km and over 3 km at its thickest point....The ice in the current ice sheet is as old as 110,000 years. However, it is generally thought that the Greenland Ice Sheet formed in the late Pliocene or early Pleistocene by coalescence of ice caps and glaciers. It did not develop at all until the late Pliocene, but apparently developed very rapidly with the first continental glaciation.."

OK, so I infer you are trying to invoke the "Medieval Warm Period" as being comparable to or warmer than the present time. This is the current state of the science on that topic, from a NOAA site on paleoclimatology:

"The plot below, from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (2007), shows numerous Northern Hemisphere paleoclimatic temperature reconstructions. The various studies differ in methodology, and in the underlying paleoclimate proxy data utilized, but all reconstruct the same basic pattern of cool "Little Ice Age", warmer "Medieval Warm Period", and still warmer late 20th and 21st century temperatures. "



Conclusion...the Northern Hemisphere is warmer now than it was during the "Medieval Warm Period", and most of the warmth anomaly is concentrated near the pole. It is not unreasonable to conclude with a some high degree of confidence that Arctic ice coverage is lower now than it was then. Of course, this is not certain knowledge.
uh huh...whatever...

Link
The Louisiana Gulf Coast really does need a good hurricane or strong tropical storm this year.

MSNBC staff and news service reports
updated 1:18 p.m. CT, Tues., June. 10, 2008

NEW ORLEANS - Researchers predict a "dead zone" of oxygen-depleted waters off the Louisiana and Texas coasts could grow this summer to 10,084 square miles — making it the largest such expanse on record.

If the preliminary forecast holds, the researchers say, the size of the so-called "dead zone" would be 17-21 percent larger than at anytime since the mapping began in 1985 — and about as large as the state of Massachusetts. Another forecast is planned next month.

Excess nutrients can spur the growth of algae, and when the algae die, their decay consumes oxygen faster than it can be brought down from the surface. As a result, fish, shrimp and crabs can suffocate, threatening the region's commercial fishing industry.

"Tropical storms and hurricanes have the potential of disrupting the physical structure of the water column and aerating the bottom layer," the forecasters noted. "If no strong storms appear, then this year’s dead zone is predicted to be 17-21 percent larger than previously measured, and to stretch into Texas continental shelf waters."

Researchers say the largest dead zone measured was 8,894 square miles in 2002. It was about 7,900 square miles last year.

"The prediction of a large hypoxic zone this summer is because the nitrate loading this May, a critical month influencing the size, was exceptionally high," said Turner. "The size of the hypoxic zone last year was only slightly below the largest zone measured. The nitrate concentration in May 2008 is 79 percent of that in May 2007, but the river discharge was 75 percent higher. This means that nitrogen loading to the Gulf of Mexico in May this year will be 37 percent higher than last year and the highest since measurements began in 1970."


No kidding. No significant sea life can live in that low-oxygen environment. This has been an ongoing problem for years and getting worse. Louisiana shrimpers have to go hundreds of miles and either cruise south of Mississippi / Alabama or along the Texas coast to catch their shrimp.

People think hurricanes are a BAD thing. They do a lot of good for the environment too. Bad for people, good for nature.
Pressures still falling East and below Lake Okeechobee, more storms tonight? Typically pressures would be rising at this time.
Texasgulf - NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO I understand what is happening off of our coast. But I can promise you - we are NOT ready for a hurricane. There is still so much work to be done in the Southern Parishes after what Katrina and Rita did. We have experienced the "dead zone" many times. A mild tropical storm is about all we could take.

I'm not fussing, just voicing. :)
Either we need a good hurricane along the Gulf coast, or the National Weather Service needs to make it stop raining in the mid-west.

The additional storm water runoff into rivers and streams is causing the largest portion of this problem.

The third option is more control of pesticides and fertilizers... but not in an election year.

hh, reminding me of a few years back when we had several waves ride weak and under the high, and then intensify closer to land.
I wonder if that will happen this season StormJ.
1122. hydrus
TEXAS GULF-I have read about the pollution in the dead zone.I wonder if all that fresh water entering the gulf of mexico could change the salinity enough to effect the sea life in the area to a small degree.
Really hard to say hh. Shear will likely fluctuate all season and the high will do the same. Wait and see as always...
1118. Hurricanehanna:

I understand that some parts of southern Louisiana were badly affected by Katrina and Rita. Others weren't.

We have relatives living on Grand Isle, La. They still do. It was windy, but they weren't subjected to bad storm surge. Their area was fine. My in-laws live in Marrero, near the coastal swamps and Lafitte and Houma. They were fine, houses were OK. A few trees went down though.

A friend lives in New Iberia, south of Lafayette. They were fine. Relatives live in Lake Charles and Sulfur, La. They were fine.

I am familiar with Louisiana infrastructure... and have all the confidence in your ability to withstand a Category-2 storm without effort.

I don't want to see LA get belted. Nobody wants that. We just need to aerate the gulf a little bit, restore better shrimping and improve the local engineering and construction job market a little bit.

I don't think I'm asking too much.
Greenland was Green? LOL! I shall sentence you to Wikipedia, sir, to learn,

The name "Greenland" is also somewhat of a misnomer; it would have been better if Iceland had been named Greenland and vice-versa. The name actually had nothing to do with it being green (the southern coastal areas indeed are ice-free and support abundant vegetation but that is it):

Shouldn't Greenland be known as Iceland and vice versa?

The real story behind the name is given in Erik the Red's Saga, based on oral tradition and written down in the early thirteenth century in Iceland. After the Icelandic landnám was over, Erik the Red and his father Thorvald were forced to leave Norway because one or both of them was involved in killings (details are not given). After Thorvald died, Erik was involved in yet more killings, for which his punishment was three years' vacation--er, I mean banishment from Iceland. (And you thought O. J. got off easy.)

He used the time to explore the rumored lands to the west. When his term of banishment expired, he returned to Icleand to invite his neighbors and friends to settle the new country with him. He purposely chose the pleasant name Grænland ("green land") to attract settlers, but the choice wasn't exactly misleading. Some parts of Greenland, especially the parts the Norse settled, really are green, as these pictures from the tourist board attest (www.greenland-guide.dk/outdoor_life_photo.htm). He may have been a killer, but at least he wasn't a real-estate scam-artist. He didn't have that much to gain by lying anyway, since he didn't charge anyone for the land. As in Iceland a century before, the land was free for the taking. Natives had lived in the area in the past, but at the time of Erik's voyage, only the northern part of Greenland was occupied by the Inuit (Eskimos).
1126. help4u
Michael stl staring in wizard of oz.I'M MELTING! LOL
texasgulf i see your point and can understand that being im in the shrimping industry on the west coast of florida, but dont you think a hurricane in the gulf even if it dont hit anything imagine what gas prices would go to jmo.
1122. Hydrus:

Not likely. Most every species living in shallow water along the Louisiana gulf coast can survive in a brackish environment just fine.

Lake Ponchartrain has alternating zones of fresh/brackish/salt water during the year. They get sharks, rays, shrimp, fresh & saltwater crabs... you name it. Lake Charles is fresh water, but they have decent early season shrimping (at least before the commercial fishing trawler sweeps the lake).

Most of the coastal water fish actually hatch and grow in inland brackish estuaries. Besides, the ocean environment has adapted to the fresh water of the Mississippi river over millenniums.

Increased or decreased flow of fresh water into the gulf will not even affect the local fish population... unless that water brings nasty chemicals with it.
yeah....

Link
1130. Drakoen
Looks like another African easterly wave is over western Africa.
Well Texasgulf, I happen to live in Lafayette. I can drive south to Vermillion Parish ans still see so much of the destruction and homes that have not been rebuilt. There are several "islands" down near the coast that were completely washed away. I saw the destruction firsthand. Lake Charles and Sulfur are further inland. Lafayette itself is only 30 miles as the crow flies. I've seen the statistics of what a storm surge could do at the right tide. We rode out Lili which luckily downgraded before making final landfall. I saw two tornadoes, I saw the damage it did. While I feel for the shrimpers and those that make their living in the Gulf, I will never wish a hurricane upon anyone. I lived through several as a child. It's not something you hope will occur.
texasgulf ... dont you think a hurricane in the gulf even if it dont hit anything imagine what gas prices would go to jmo.

I work in the oil & gas industry, refineries, fuel storage, pumping and loading facilities mostly. A hurricane in the gulf means more project engineering work for repairs / equipment replacement.

I also drive a Toyota Corolla, 38 MPG. Looking around the parking lots at the nation's biggest refineries, you see a lot more oil-n-gas employees driving fuel efficient cars.

Pity the Hummer Drivers, but charge them for the pleasure.
1134. hydrus
TEXAS GULF-Very interesting,I did not realize so many of the creatures could survive in those conditions.I did know of a few though,Bull Shark,Snook and some shrimp species.
1134. don't forget redfish! they can survive in fresh water (although they don't reproduce)...
so i take it you agree then that gas would go threw the roof.
I promise to stop making stupid jokes if we can stop with global warming talk.... okay?
1140. guygee
1114. pearlandaggie 12:54 AM GMT on June 11, 2008
uh huh...whatever...

Link


Much more in depth scientific discussion of Loehle's work: Link

Partial Conclusion:
"What does this imply for Loehle's reconstruction? Unfortunately, the number of unsuitable series, errors in dating and transcription, combined with a mis-interpretation of what was being averaged, and a lack of validation, do not leave very much to discuss. Of the 18 original records, only 5 are potentially useful for comparing late 20th Century temperatures to medieval times, and they don't have enough coverage to say anything significant about global trends. It's not clear to me what impact fixing the various problems would be or what that would imply for the error bars, but as it stands, this reconstruction unfortunately does not add anything to the discussion."
Interesting Discussion follows...Example:
[...]
Comment #41.
# Mitch Lyle Says:
9 December 2007 at 8:51 AM

Gavin, I agree with your points. However, as a paleoclimatologist/paleoceanographer I would hope that you would get away from the high and low resolution description of climate records. Those of us in the field now describe records as annual, decadal, millennial, and milankovitch to avoid total confusion. When we work in deep-time, anything resolving Milankovitch is considered high-resolution.

The big problem with Loehle's paper starts at the beginning, he never shares the records with us but only the composite. If he was limited by E&E on publishing his original records and his sorting criteria, he should have published elsewhere.

It only took a quick look at one of the papers (Kim et al., 2004), to see that Loehle was cherry picking his data. Of the three records with marginally sufficient age control, two were not added to the composite. These two records,from the California margin, had warming trends.

Furthermore, the data in the composite is the most mixed grab bag of data I have ever seen, one cannot make any climatological sense for the choices, so one must assume that the choices were based on some other, unstated criterion.

We need honest help to understand how climate works; eventually real analysis will drive out the bad composites.

[Response: Good point. I've actually made it myself when trying to translate between paleo people and physical oceanographers - they have very different conceptions of the term 'high resolution'! So to be specific, I use 'low resolution' here to imply multi-decadal and longer. Sufficiently high resolution to be useful in this kind of exercise is decadal (with similar sized age model errors). Finally, I agree, real analyses will win out in the end. I'm hopeful that isn't too far off. - gavin]
[...]
1136. severstorm:
so i take it you agree then that gas would go threw the roof.

Naturally, that depends on where the storm hits and with what intensity.

If a slow moving, strong Cat-3 or weak Cat-4 hits the Houston ship channel, forget price spikes... can we say national gas rationing? Imagine pulling in to your local Shell station and seeing a sign saying "10-gallon limit per fill-up".

The big Shell refinery in Deer Park, Tx is only about 10 feet elevation at most. The ExxonMobil refinery in Baytown is about the same elevation. BP refinery in Texas City is less than 3-4 feet elevation, with a levee built to roughly 13'-15' height.

If we "take one for the team", the nation better be prepared for distributing gas rationing cards. You haven't even gotten a taste of how bad BAD can be yet.
1144. Greyelf
Any chance that all of those that WANT to discuss global warming/climate change might choose to go to a blog where the majority want to discuss that? Heck, I'd even start the discussion in my own blog if you all would continue the discussion there. Then I'd just never check my own blog. I'd be willing to make that sacrifice.
I don't see any way out of the gas problem for the remainder of the summer. Unless there is a tremendous drop in consumption, which I doubt. I would not be surprised to see it hit $5 a gallon by Aug. If we can curb consumption, the market will adjust. But can we?
1144

+1
1147. guygee
Alright, I've been trolled enough on GW for one night.

I am on a shared connection and the neighbor wants to play, so I'm gone.
This is going to be a bad summer. For some reason our neighborhood has been infested with fleas. We can't get rid of them. This weather certainly isn't helping. I have tried everything. AARGH!
How, exactly, is climate change not approriate on this blog? The author mentions it quite frequently....seems pretty germaine...
1150. Greyelf
Actually, I don't see how the price of gas is applicable here, but whatever. The problem with the GW/CC discussion is that it is the SAME arguments over, and over, and over.
well...the problem is that it degenerates into argument, rather than civil discussion....
1152. pottery
Evening all.
The wave approaching the Islands has lost some of its potential. Due to the Westerly shear ? Will it rebuild ? There is a complex upper level wind field to the west of the wave now, becoming northerly.
What does that mean, for the wave in the next 12 hrs.
Responses welcomed. Thankee.
I am surprised gas is not over $5/gallon already like it is in the rest of the world. It is much cheaper here then it is other places. Also, if we would be allowed to drill here and build refineries it would be even cheaper...plus the added benefit of not sending all our money out of the Country...
While the tropics are slow, you can get a bit off topic...but, when they heat up...we need to stay on track
lol, what the hell to the Germans have to do with anything?
Presslord, exactly.
the topic is driven by Masters posts...when he opens the door to it it's fair game...it's not presented as a tropical weather blog...it's presented as his blog....
Buoys around the S Caribbean blob. Interesting wind directions. Quikscat page won't open.

Pottery~ I'll have a look at your wave.
1160. pottery
Much obliged, Skye.
ugh.........tropics, germans, 5.00 a gallon gas, a tropical wave......and dear lord I see GW, which I assnume means Global Whinning........
ps.. th La coast line does not need a storm................friggin duh!

nighty night all!
I'll check back later to see what you find Skyepony...Hopefully, everything will stay calm a bit longer...I am not ready to run...Lisa
Just signed on anything happening in the tropics. Hope everyone is having a great evening..
I don't mind the topic. I mind when it becomes personal. I remember last year when Dr. Masters fill-in suggested that the bridge collapse in St. Louis (?) may have been the result of global warming. I thought it to be a knee jerk hypothesis then and still do now. GW is complex beyond words. All I have EVER wanted to know is: Is global warming cyclic or linear? Many, Many people on this site and others would love to blame gw/cc on this administration and I dont like watching the discussion degrade into a name calling match.
1166. pottery
Hi Tampa.
It ALL happening here LOL
Did i sign on at bad time again.....oh boy...lol
1168. vortfix
anybody seen Cowboy?
Don't make me shake hands again with you all......lol
Hi Tampa and pottery!
Evening, all! .....uuuuummmm, any CAT 5's yet?


Sup, TS! :P, all!

1154. Nice post.
Pottery~ Your wave does look to have had a hard afternoon of upper shear. Here's a good sence of current steering for the mid to lower levels that are left. It does look to still have some circulation happening in the lower level. It certainly has better 850mb vorticity than the Caribbean blob & has increased in the last several hours. Some of that poof is daytime heating. I wouldn't call it gone yet. It could use a slack in the shear though.
LMAO, TS! Understand completely!
Hey, V O R T !!! Ya'll gettin' any rain yet?
1175. vortfix
Hey Cowboy!
Nah....a couple sprinkles is all here today.
1171. moonlightcowboy 10:41 PM EDT on June 10, 2008
Evening, all! .....uuuuummmm, any CAT 5's yet?


Cowboy i think theirs more wind in this blog this evenning than in the tropics it appears.
Where's STL? I wanna talk about AGW! ;P
1178. pottery
Its always a bad time, when there is no storm about. But there is a tropical wave approaching the Islands, and we in the islands are hoping that it brings some persistant rains. We live in hope......
1179. vortfix
It's been raining nice out over the gulfstream though.
Nice light show....LOL
Dang, Vort! FL gonna turn into a desert?
Yeah, Pottery, sure hope you get some of the wet stuff!
1183. vortfix
Our rainy season has sure had a hard time trying to get started.
Patterns change.....and this current one needs to do it pronto man.
"Off-topic images?" LMAO, like there haven't been plenty of those! (.....uuuummm, 1154?) But, hey, it's okay with me! Especially when there's nothing going on! And, doesn't cause any pain to anyone!
1180. moonlightcowboy 10:45 PM EDT on June 10, 2008
Dang, Vort! FL gonna turn into a dessert?

MLC, NO NO NO i think it was the dinnosaurs fault. They ate all the green.

Baybuddy Are you still in here?
Sheri
Hi all, ajcamsmom, I have to correct you on some facts regarding gas prices. First, gas is soooo much more expensive in europe because our dollar has been devalued by almost 100% to the Euro since 2000 when the Euro first showed up on credit card purchases. In 2000, it cost 82 cents to buy a Euro. Today, it costs almost $1.60 in actual exchange to buy that same Euro. Also, Europeans get paid in Euros. They don't get paid in dollars. The comparison is a disengenuous one often pitched to make us feel better, but doesn't tell the whole truth. Also, it ignores the fact that their mass transit is Superior to ours and that it takes only 2 1/2 hours to go from one end of the Netherlands to the other. That gets me from Homestead to West Palm Beach if I'm not stuck in traffic.

As far as drilling, that's a beat argument that simply does not hold water. Let me explain. There is NO gas shortage! Speculators are driving the price up at least 60% above market fundamentals. The solution is the regulation of American interests in back door hedge fund markets in Dubai and England that make up at least 35% of the speculation. Also, these speculators are actually taking delivery of the oil and holding it on spec because they think oil will continue to climb in price or they are holding out for Euros. There is millions of gallons of gas not being put on the market solely because they want to hold it for a better price. That's called market manipulation. We saw the same thing with Enron.

This oil crisis is an Enron scam all over again and the pigs at the trough are chowing down one last time before Bush leaves office. Where is the power shortage in California 5 years later? No extra plants were built as were demanded for at the time, so where is the shortage? There isn't any because it was all a scam, and again, so too is the so called oil crisis.

If you truly want to bring down the cost, there is three ways to do so. One, is regulation of the hedgefunds and increasing the margin-calls on speculators. Two, set into motion economic policies that will shore up the dollar (ie raise interest rates) Three, release at least a third of the oil reserves througout summer to calm investor worries of supply issues. The Fourth thing ( I know I said only three things) is to stop this crazy BS that Ford and Chevy and other auto manufacturers can't put on the market cars that get 60mpg or more. They are doing pretty much that in Europe now, they just don't want you to know. They've done a good job keeping you in the dark on this fact. Paying $10 a gallon isn't so bad if you are getting 200 mpg.
1185. Or the cherries jubilee! ;P

...freakin' "dinasores" for sure!
Rained here. Lawn turned green. Hope ya'll see some.
1190. pottery
Great, Skye. I was thinking along the same lines.
Interesting how the upper level winds have changed/are changing around here very quickly.
In any case, there is a large area of unsettled weather behind the wave, and the Trop. Atlantic appears to be moistening up nicely.
MLC ROFLMAO
Light rain here in north central. Lasted for a few hrs. Should see more tomorrow.
MLC what are you doing........lol
Here we go with th Global Whinning debate, again... My opinion is that it is more of a natural cycle and it's just far more complex than human minds can understand. Not to invoke or knock religion, being that I'm religious myself, but Global Warming, like religion, is man's way of interpreting something which he cannot comprehend or understand. Yes, we can go off data we have for the past 100 or so years, but 100 years is only a very tiny sliver of time when compared with the age of the earth, itself. My question is, when ar we all going to wake up and realize that there or some things in and out of this world that happen that are far beyond our control. We, as humans, need to realize we are not God. Yes, we are at the top of the food chain and yes, we have dominance over the earth, but we have absolutely no control over weather and why it happens the way it does. Look at it from this perspective. We can't accurately forecast weather a week from now, so how on earth are we going to listen to someone tell us what the planet will look like 100 years from now. We need to stop calling it Global Warming. Call it climate change. That's what it is. Our climate is changing, It (climate change) has many more factors involved than just the human factor. Why is it that we constantly point fingers at ourselves for something we don't completely understand and that is way beyond our control. No matter if we shut down every factory and anything else that causes "greenhouse gases", we may never be able to stop or change the effects climate change. It's something that is going to happen whether we like it or not. To me, it's nothing more than a scapegoat tha governments of the world use as a panic and control device. We are at the mercy of those we put in charge. And it doesn't matter whether they are Dems or Republican. Or what country you live in. The governmants have control. And this is the one thing they use to brainwash and control their people. If they have control over what we think, then think about just how far they can go.
Hey Vort & MLC, It poured here very hard. I am still at Springhill Hospital with pop. We had lightning,thunder, and they said Dauphin Street was under water which i could believe I went downstairs and out the side door at the hospital and the parking lot was flooded.
Sheri
After looking at many models it appears the Bermuda high will establish itself more East than its current position in about a week.


I see 92E made landfall. Poor Condesa! Must not be a dry spot anywhere close!

Hey, {{{SHERI}}!
1197. Ugh! That's not a good thing at all! Unless, we get some fish out of it!
1200. vortfix
Hi Sheri!
That sounds like some serious rain there.
Take care of Pop.
1201. pottery
Hi there Baybuddy.
, and MLC.

Yep, rain is forecast for tomorrow evening. Looks like if it gets going, it may last a few days too.
Just my luck, as we are doing a weekend sales event here in the open (!) featuring Garden Pots, Mosaic patio tables etc.
Should be fun !!
Sheri, doesn't Dauphin St flood pretty easy though? {{{PRAYERS}}} still up for Pop, too. Hang in there, Sheri!

Really hate all that devastating flooding up north! Yuk! And, that letter Guygee had in here last night from that guy there was just wrenching!
Vort I am, there running the camera down his throat in the morning. But his pacemaker is doing great, he just can't eat know. but thanks Vort.
Sheri
LOL, I see where Harry Reid is planning on sueing the Saudi royalty! ....more blah, blah, blah! Can we get mandatory retirement for some these dinosaur quacks that think they're fooling the American people? Puuuullllleazz!
MLC I don't know if it does or not usually not in town that much, well as much as i have been last few months.
Sheri
bluehaze actually shows tremendous insight...and while I can argue the propriety of CC/GW discussion here...oil geopolitics are something of a stretch....but the hedge fund guys are absolutely key to that question....


Pottery, that twave looks to have some moisture in it coming your way! The Carib twave now is pushing stuff into the BOC near the 92E disturbance. Just those two things that I'd consider with very remote chances of development.
1187, 1195 - both good posts.

Hey, Press! They sure are "hedging" a bunch of pocket books that's for sure! ;P
Yeah, I'm out, too! May pop in a bit later and check on some shear, etc.

Ya'll all have a good sleep, friends!
Thanks, MLC. I guess the way I see it is that we need to step back and take a look. Instead of letting some government-funded scientist decide what is going on, we need to form our own opinion.
1212. pottery
Yeah MLC, I'm noticing that as well.
But the wave does seem to be losing much of its convection now, and not taking advantage of the Dmax. Too much shear I suppose. Oh well.
1211. ...(taxpayer)-funded scientist decide what is going on, we need to form our own opinion.

EXACTLY!
1212. dmax is several hours out yet. I'll bet it comes back as the waters get warmer the closer it gets to you. You'll get some wet stuff, I'm betting!

Ok, gone now for sure. Nite, all!
How will we solve the low-oxygen "dead zone" problem in the gulf south of Louisiana this year without a tropical storm or hurricane?

People think that a Tropical Storm or Hurricane is automatically bad news. Well, they do cause tangible problems, but they often bring offsetting benefits.

Just as hurricanes can cause massive damage in nature, they are a catalyst for change and rejuvenation too. The same storms cause massive damage to coastal communities, but they often are a catalyst for change and rejuvenation to those communities too.

Look at the changes in culture and population diversity that are happening in New Orleans after Katrina.

Every cloud does have a silver lining. In this case, we need a bunch of clouds swirling and kicking up the ocean South of Louisiana to aerate the water.
love how a guy who apparently works for the government wants to bash government scientists....
Wow... it's so quiet in here. Didn't know that ever happened. Ha!
1219. hahaguy
This is the S................L...............O............W.....
time. LOL
Nothing really to talk bout. There isn't any "blobs" even to look for development: The only thing out there is the TWAVE in the CATL which is in 20-30 knts of shear. I square I remember us watching more blobs last year in June.
G'night!
There isn't much, the area in S Florida is kinda interesting. The ULL seems to be working its way down but no one expects anything of it. Seems to be holding its own tonight though.
I just wish some of the action today had given us some rain. The outflow cooled us to the lowest temps in several days this evening. But rainfall has only been 0.13" in first 10 days of month.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
1225. JLPR
ha! lol =P
The amazing explosion of very strong convection I was waiting from the tropical wave in DMaX didn't happen =P so this wave is pretty much done =P

The area that did explode is the area behind the wave, which I suppose is the ITCZ
RSMC: India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST June 11 2008
---------------------------------------

Yesterday's Well-Marked Low Pressure Area now lies over northwest and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea

Convective clouds are seen over northwest Arabian Sea and parts of northeast Arabian Sea.

Convective clouds are also seen over west central and south Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.
....twave (though still with some low level rotation) is going "pppoooooooooooooofffttt!"

RAMSDIS thermal IR LOOP
Some convection is building again ahead of the CATL wave. Looks like it could begin its comeback.
"Look at the changes in culture and population diversity that are happening in New Orleans after Katrina."

The term for that is "gentrification", and I'm not sure I'd call it a good thing. New Orleans has been losing diversity as a result of the hurricane. And the answer to a dead zone is not annual catastrophes; it's changing our river management practices.
IAC113-111215-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
LINN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
403 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE LINN
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA.

THIS IS THE LINN COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER...ON BEHALF OF
THE CITY OF CEDAR RAPIDS...I HAVE AN ANNOUNCEMENT OF VITAL IMPORTANCE.

THE CITY OF CEDAR RAPIDS HAS DECLARED A MANDATORY EVACUATION TO
BEGIN IMMEDIATELY.

PERSONS LIVING BETWEEN 16TH AVENUE TO C STREET...AND 22ND AVENUE
TO A STREET SOUTHWEST ARE BEING TOLD TO EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY.

THE ROOSEVELT MIDDLE SCHOOL SHELTER...300 13TH STREET NORTHWEST IN
CEDAR RAPIDS IS NOW OPENED TO ACCOMMODATE EVACUEES.

PLEASE BE SURE TO CHECK WITH ANY OF YOUR NEIGHBORS WHO MAY BE
ELDERLY OR HANDICAPPED TO BE SURE THEY HAVE RECEIVED AND
UNDERSTAND THIS MESSAGE.

PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THE DESCRIBED AREA SHOULD TAKE THE
FOLLOWING ACTIONS:

BEGIN PACKING IMMEDIATELY. PACK ALL NECESSARY CLOTHING...
BLANKETS...MEDICAL SUPPLIES...ANY PRESCRIPTION DRUGS...AND
PERSONAL ITEMS YOU MAY NEED: SOAP AND TOWELS...PERSONAL GROOMING
ITEMS...IDENTIFCATION...CREDIT CARDS...AND IF APPLICABLE...BABY FOOD
AND DISPOSABLE DIAPERS. YOU MAY ALSO HAVE USE FOR OTHER SUPPLIES
SUCH AS A PORTABLE RADIO...FLASHLIGHT...EXTRA BATTERIES FOR EACH
AND PLASTIC OR PAPER BAGS. DO NOT FORGET FOOD FOR SPECIAL DIETS.

IF YOU HAVE PETS...PLEASE TAKE THEM TO THE CEDAR VALLEY HUMANE
SOCIETY AT 7411 MOUNT VERNON ROAD SOUTHEAST OR A PRIVATE KENNEL.
ARRANGEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THE HUMANE SOCIETY TO CARE FOR
PETS. THE ROOSEVELT MIDDLE SCHOOL SHELTER DOES NOT HAVE PLACES FOR
PETS...EXCEPT FOR SERVICE ANIMALS.

BEFORE LEAVING YOUR HOME...SHUT OFF ALL APPLIANCES AND LOACK ALL
DOORS AND WINDOWS. TIE OR ATTACH A WHILE CLOTH TO OR NEAR YOUR
FRONT DOOR TO INDICATE TO EMERGENCY WORKERS THAT YOU HAVE LEFT
YOUR HOME.

IF YOU NEED TRANSPORTION...CONTACT THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
OFFICE AT 363-2671.

PLEASE DRIVE SAFELY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

$$

WOLF


good morning
The tropics look relatively quiet this morning. Two areas stand out. One in the south west caribbean where there is an area of cloudiness and showers, but this area is unfavourable for develoment because of the extremely high vertical wind shear, the other area is to the east of the southrn windward islands where a tropical wave is interacting with a vey active ITCZ. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK AND SMALL LLC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NEAR 9.9N 57W.the wave is moving to the weast at 15-20knots and should bring showers thunder showers and gusty winds to the southern winwards later today and into thursday.Upper level winds do not support tropical development. my other interest is that the Global Models are hinting of a low pressure area to form near 40w some time around the 21st june. i will have to wait and see whether there will be continuity and consistency in future runs. all the same this is an area to keep an eye on next week
1232. guygee
Beachside...mostly just got a lightning show early last night when that big line came through...

Cocoa / Patrick Air Force Base, FL, United States
Precipitation Accumulation
A trace In the 6 hours preceding Jun 11, 2008 - 01:55 AM EDT / 2008.06.11 0555 UTC

Inland did a little better, but not much:
Melbourne, Melbourne International Airport, FL, United States

Precipitation Accumulation
0.08 inches In the 6 hours preceding Jun 11, 2008 - 01:53 AM EDT / 2008.06.11 0553 UTC

Melbourne total for yesterday: 0.09"

Good Morning all!

Latest Ascat showing a possible closed low near 9.9n 57w. possibly 91l ???

Link
1234. guygee
AXNT20 KNHC 110604
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE. AT THE CURRENT SPEED THE WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES WED EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 49W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 82W-90W.
[...]
CARIBBEAN...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING THE MAJORITY OF LOW CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE AREA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA... AND CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY WLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION W OF 82W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N73W. FURTHER E THE BASE OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 32N31W TO 28N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM 35N21W TO 20N40W 20N60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FLORIDA IS PRODUCING SLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W. A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 10N38W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N E OF 45W. EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE E ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES S OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA
1235. guygee
RE: 1233. stoormfury 10:41 AM GMT on June 11, 2008

stoormfury - indeed, early visible image loops seem to show a well-developed cyclonic circulation there, but aimed directly at the South American continent. So I think no invest.

NASA/GHCC GOES Visible 800 x 600 6-Image loop



I guess the big question that far south is usually, "Is it pulling a west wind at the surface?". It seems to be from all indications.
I dont see anything with that wave. End of July that area should be ready.
1233. stoormfury 10:41 AM GMT on June 11, 2008
Latest Ascat showing a possible closed low near 9.9n 57w. possibly 91l ???


There aren't any west-winds so not closed.

1236. leftovers 11:36 AM GMT on June 11, 2008
I dont see anything with that wave. End of July that area should be ready.


I disagree a bit with that because SSTs can already support development, and it's just a matter of wind shear dropping.
1233. stoormfury 10:41 AM GMT on June 11, 2008
Latest Ascat showing a possible closed low near 9.9n 57w. possibly 91l ???

Link



Thats not a closed low that a classic signiture of a tropical wave.

Could convection build again before it reaches the Islands? I am not talking about it developing, just want to know about thunderstorms and rain.
1240. guygee
RE: 1233. stoormfury 10:41 AM GMT on June 11, 2008
I think I see cumulus convergence bands showing a west wind, and the ASCAT data has several westerly vectors. No big deal, since it either hits SA or encounters hostile shear and cooler waters to its northwest. Almost certainly the former.

It is not that the SSTs in that area are too cold for development, it is more the shear, and cooler waters to the north and west under the tradewinds in the E. Caribbean this time of year, plus the proximity to SA that makes this area climatologically unfavorable.

Latest RTG_SST N. ATL


Update: In the interests of full disclosure, the TPC clearly disagrees with me. lol.

TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2008
[...]
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
[...]
1241. NEwxguy
that huge circulation in the north atlantic is really affecting a large part of the atlantic,even down to the carribean.
1241. NEwxguy 8:02 AM EDT on June 11, 2008
that huge circulation in the north atlantic is really affecting a large part of the atlantic,even down to the carribean.


Morning everyone.......MOst models kick the big ULL out in 5 days.....nothing really has a chance until this is gone unless in the GOM area.
Could convection build again before it reaches the Islands? I am not talking about it developing, just want to know about thunderstorms and rain.
Good morning all! Just reading the 8 AM Tropical Weather Discussion from the NHC and found this to be quite interesting.

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N25W 6N40W 11N57W 10N62W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF
THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 12W-16W...AND FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 16W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN
36W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N
BETWEEN 46W-50W.

This is the furthest north the ITCZ has been and it now appears that the ITCZ has hit that magic 10N line.


It seems like that tropical wave we have been watching may have helped give the ITCZ a jolt northward in tandem with the stronger ridge in the Southern Hemisphere.
Good morning everyone. Kind of quiet I see.
1249. NEwxguy
Tampa,
I agree,its been stuck there for a while but models do move it out next week.That should change the weather patterns for the us and the atlantic
1249. NEwxguy 9:04 AM EDT on June 11, 2008

I believe the wave that is approaching the islands will go north of South America and entering the Carribean. The High in the Southern Hemispher is getting stronger and should push it north along with the ITZ. This loop takes a few seconds to load but, shows a great pic of our side of the world. Link
1252. NEwxguy
1250. TampaSpin 1:11 PM GMT on June 11, 2008

That loop really shows the ULL off the florida coast also
This is realy nasty!
John Hope use to say development early and late in the season near S America is possible. Something about the low pressure over S Ameri. is not as strong. Anyone willing to further elaborate?
Check this loop out. Be sure to speed it up fast...Link
If there is a hurricane in the south atlantc than people along the gulf/atlantic coast oughta be scared about hurricane season because of 2005.
1257. guygee
Re: 1250

I agree TampaSpin, the northern part of the wave will continue on and it looks to be getting pulled farther north like you say, but I think that the debatable "circulation"-inverted V signature that we were discussing just below 10N is still SA-bound.

Very cool link, BTW, that is a great huge mosaic and a good color map. Thanks for the link!

Later!
If one looks at the last few imiages of that loop you can see why the ITZ will move North.
shear over tropical wave east of Trinidad is 5-10knots and should help to the wave to increase inconvection before it reaches the islands
Good Morning All.....It remains pretty quiet in the tropical atlantic this AM; are any of the models hinting at any areas of possible development in the next 10 days (other than the sheer beaten wave down by SA?)........WW
Wow look at the latest Shear map and how shear is forecast to decrease almost throughout the entire atlantic basin.
weatherman, living in pensacola...sure does bring back the memories...bad ones of course but we just had the Fl Dir of Emergency mgm. Craig Fugate over here at NAS he was the guest speaker and he had a lot of good things to say about what escambia county did that New Orleans didn't do...very nice guy and he didn't beat around the bush about anything...even said this year could be another 04 and that the state is ready..sure hope he's wrong about another 04...
1259. TheWeatherMan504

Rode Ivan out in the north half of Fort Walton Beach! The family says they won't do that with me again! It was a long howling night. We had to wait until the water receded near the Hurlburt Field runway on Hwy 98 before we could check our house south of 98 and confirm it had survived Ivan with some minor shingle damage! Friends in Navarre weren't so lucky, 41 inches of muddy water went through their house, that was a hot and sweaty cleanup. Thanks for the flashback 504!
1246. cchsweatherman 8:47 AM EDT on June 11, 2008 Good call on the magic 10 line; funny how the rise in the ITCZ has kind of cooincided with the return (finally) of a more Summerlike, pop-up, shower environment in Florida and the SE over the last two days; I'm sure there is some scientific connection somewhere in the "global" scheme of weather patterns.........
I just don't see an '04 shaping up. The SST's are below the '04's SST's. Shear will always be the big player and no one can predict that weeks in advance.
tampa, sure hope your right...just being the messenger is all...viking, yeah 1 hell of a storm to ride out wasn't it?? sure won't forget the sound of that wind between 2-4am.
1267. TampaSpin

Where's the comparison of your SST's? I've been living along the northern Gulf since 92 and I've never seen the Gulf waters this warm this early. My fishfinder measured 83.3 degree water in the Gulf near Destin on Sunday. The high that positioned itself over the southeast caused the Gulf water temps to skyrocket way earlier than normal.
1270. fmbill
Nolehead...you're right about Craig Fugate. He's an excellent leader. And i like his message this year: We are not "storm victims...we are survivors".
viking exactly!! lived here all my life big surfer...and you ask every local and they will tell you this is not normal..even the local weather guys are saying the same thing...unless you live around here then you have no idea.
1268. Nolehead

Yep those were he magic hours. I enjoyed it but that's me, a storm chaser at heart who someday hopes to chase tornados on the plains. The family on the other hand is letting me ride the next one out alone!
1273. IKE
Panama City, FL 88.0 °F
Apalachicola, FL 87.1 °F
Grand Isle, LA 84.9 °F..........

GOM water temps......near the coast.
fmbill, yep exactly!! just wish he could have talked alot longer though...
1270. fmbill

I agree completely. The teamwork after storms in NW Florida is incredible. Communities seem to get stonger and better prepared with each storm.
1269. 69Viking 9:59 AM EDT on June 11, 2008
1267. TampaSpin

Where's the comparison of your SST's?


Look at the average SST's in the Atlantic basin the temps are running on about Average to below average with just small sections above average. Your area is slightly above its normal average.
1277. roxycc
are the you tube videos allowed? They sure are irritating, they do someting weird to my page layout. Can they be kept off, please.
viking, luckily my wife loves storm chasing like me, it sure was a rush!! now the kids on the other hand...lol..thank goodness they slept through the whole thing!!
Nolehead-nice pic of Katrina surf: I surfed it at Clearwater and it was awesome, the waves had a "surge" feel to them. Sure could use those waves now..
lol, slightly??...it's a sauna out there...way too hot for this time of year!!
groundswell...boy they were like something out of surfer mag...clean and long lines...either way right's or left's.. it didn't matter...i agree we sure could use a nice swell like that..
1282. fmbill
NAM shows a "blob" moving into the gulf.

Link
1283. IKE
That YOUTUBE video of Ivan....I live in Defuniak Springs...I got the heck out of here for that beast....the Pensacola bay Bridge(I-10)...incredible damage from it.
1278. Nolehead

I live South of 98 near Hurlburt Field, where abouts are you?
yep ike, and the rumor about a 50' wave going into pensacola bay really makes you wonder after seeing the damage it did..no one ever said it was true or not, but gees the damage alone sure makes you wonder..
viking, i work over in pensacola for lamar outdoor, and boy did we have some signs to pick up..lol, but i live in Elberta, Al about 20min west of p'cola.
1283. IKE

Chicken! Defuniak is way inland, perfect place to ride out a storm!
1289. IKE
1285. Nolehead 9:18 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
yep ike, and the rumor about a 50' wave going into pensacola bay really makes you wonder after seeing the damage it did..no one ever said it was true or not, but gees the damage alone sure makes you wonder..


Yup....

Something about the "rush" that a person gets from watching a system that strong affect your area is....unnerving. Exciting...but unnerving.
1290. IKE
1288. 69Viking 9:20 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
1283. IKE

Chicken! Defuniak is way inland, perfect place to ride out a storm!


Not where I live....on a lake...up a hill....I've stayed through a tropical-storm...my house was shaking...I will never stay again.
Nolehead I hear you about the signs! It's good to know a few people from this blog live in the area. We'll have a lot to talk if a storm comes towards us.
1286. jphurricane2006 2:15 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
There is no way to determine what the steering and shear will be 7 days from now, and we are talking the peak of the season, we have a long way to go and a lot can change


How true.
yep you got that right..think we have the whole panhandle covered in here it seems...lol
1294. IKE
As far as Defuniak Springs being well inland...it's about 30 miles inland and took a sizable hit from this lady......

Link
1264. Nolehead 1:50 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
weatherman, living in pensacola...sure does bring back the memories...bad ones of course but we just had the Fl Dir of Emergency mgm. Craig Fugate over here at NAS he was the guest speaker and he had a lot of good things to say about what escambia county did that New Orleans didn't do...very nice guy and he didn't beat around the bush about anything...even said this year could be another 04 and that the state is ready..sure hope he's wrong about another 04...


I was still in college when that storm hit alabama/florida. My friends and I decided to go storm chasing and we stayed in Ft. Walton Beach Florida. We were in one of those realy high hotels along the beach. It was scary because it was dark and you couldnt see much but the windows were bulging in and out and the surge covered the whole 1st floor. That storm would have gotten some serious storm footage if it was during the day.
1296. nash28
91L huh....
1294. IKE

80 deaths, where did they occur? You don't hear much talk of Eloise around the area. With 80 deaths I would think it would be talked about more especially to compare it to the likes of Ivan and Opal.
over here in al, just north of orange beach is where the eye went through...hwy 59 was just tore up and flooded...storm surge came in about 4 miles and as you go north on 59 the left side was no damage..you look to the right and it look like a bomb was dropped!
1300. nash28
See! What did I tell you? Every time Dr. Masters goes on a vacation, something pops up. LOL!
1302. IKE
I don't see it on the Navy site.

I was thinking yesterday it might be an invest...doesn't look as impressive this morning.
91L???
Agree with you JP and I now think water temps are overrated because you dont have squat without favorable upper level winds.
Perhaps it has some sort of circulation now?
1306. IKE
1298. 69Viking 9:33 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
1294. IKE

80 deaths, where did they occur? You don't hear much talk of Eloise around the area. With 80 deaths I would think it would be talked about more especially to compare it to the likes of Ivan and Opal.


Think it was in the islands...PR...DR...Haiti...Cuba...I don't think there were many deaths in the USA.
erin, opal...those weren't very nice either..that pretty much was the beginning to all these storms it seems..
We have 91L.
The early models take it into South America then back out into the Caribbean.
91L...right on cue
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.0N LONCUR = 57.0W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 9.5N LONM12 = 54.5W DIRM12 = 259DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 52.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 80NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
1313. IKE
An invest that far out...in early June...may be an indication of what's to come......
whats interesting about 91L is that its now in an area of favorable wind shear according to the GOES shear map.
At least this could put a cap on all the GW talk for a bit lol
1317. IKE
1315. extreme236 9:42 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
At least this could put a cap on all the GW talk for a bit lol


Amen!
1313. IKE 2:40 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
An invest that far out...in early June...may be an indication of what's to come......


OOOHHHHH Yea Brotha its coming, 2 years of low activty is gonna come back and bite us in the butt.we might have problems this year.

1304. leftovers

Obviously they work together but be serious, when you see GOM water temps in early June running between 83-88 degrees all it takes now is for your upper level winds to get aligned.
1321. IKE
I see the COC on the RAMSDIS close-up on it. It's gonna skirt the coast of SA.
By the looks of the vorticity map it could have a low pressure attached to it.
What probably happened, is that the NHC noticed a developing COC since the conditions are now favorable for development over the system, and they are watching it to see what happens.
Good morning, gang!

I see we've got a lil twave sneeker invest action going on! hhhhhhhhmmmmm!
1325. IKE
1322. extreme236 9:45 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
By the looks of the vorticity map it could have a low pressure attached to it.


Look at the RAMSDIS close-up on 91L...you'll see it.
91l - are we doomed? Shouldn't we issue an evacuation for South America?
wow its only june one can only imagine what august and september will be like.
1325.

Yep I can see it
91L up on Navy site
To me it looks like its headed to land for now, but the BAMS shows it reemerging into the Caribbean, and the BAMS is good with these shallow systems so that could be a plausible track.
Unbelievable I wrote it off earlier. 25mph winds? Is this any indication of what coming in a month and half.
1333. IKE
It's listed on the Navy site......

Link
1334. Drakoen
I see we have 91L...
AVN shear forecasts shows at least marginally favorable wind shear for when the system is expected to entire into the Caribbean (assuming it reaches it).
1336. ricderr
ok....i've got 10 bucks says we hear it's gonna be a cat 5 before noon
Where is STROMTOP/Stormyeyes/Stormkat when you need him?!
The twave made a comeback with dmax. You can see 91L on RAMSDIS visible loop, but, the low level easterly steering flow looks as if it may push it into sAmerica.

Kind of early, if you ask me, for this type of long-track system to make it all the way into the Caribbean intact; if it does (in the middle of June), then we are in for a loooong, and previously discussed, long-track season...The position of the A/B highs and relative sheer values from week to week will hold all the cards this coming season.....
A tropical storm has formed before in june right where 91L is, look on the tropical update on TWC and it shows a dot right where 91L is.
1319. TheWeatherMan504

We have enjoyed the two quiet years along the NWFL Gulf coast! Very interesting to have an invest that far out in June. I agree with IKE, could be a an interesting year if the shear is low. We already know the water is more than warm enough.
1342. Drakoen
I wrote it of yesterday lol. Invest status doesn't mean much if the system isn't organized. Conditions are only marginally favorable for development assuming the system even makes into into the Central and Western Caribbean.
We have enjoyed the two quiet years along the NWFL Gulf coast!

Yep
You guys think Barbados will still get rain and thunderstorms from the wave??
I think it's gonna be a Cat 5....
91L I am not inpressed with.. its there, yes but I dont think it will ammount to anything besides a few showers/thunderstorms in the Leewards. Too early in the season.
91L is up - in case you didn't see it.

Anybody see the if the local gas station has increase prices yet?
Doesn't look too bad

1350. IKE
1343. DestinJeff 9:58 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
Is it abnormal to live 5 miles inland, yet still be glued to tropical analysis (albeit pure conjecture at times)?


No...that's why we're all here...addiction to it.....
well, if it does survive and hits that GOM sauna...it could be very interesting...

hey tampa any word on how or if they need to evacuate people down there with all the bridges being worked on, how much of a heads up will they give??
1352. IKE
1348. tornadofan 10:01 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
91L is up - in case you didn't see it.

Anybody see the if the local gas station has increase prices yet?


Give em till noon...they'll raise it another dime a gallon(sad-eyes).
1353. Drakoen
At least we have 91L. Its something to look at rather than GW debates and politics.
1347. weathersp

"Too early in the season"? What does that have to do with the way things are shaping up this year? If waters are warm enough and wind shear is low enough then using "too early in the season" just doesn't make sense as an excuse as to why it can't be.
1355. IKE
Tropics remain quiet, typical for June

Uh...time for a new blog.....
1347.

I don't think its too early in the season...thats just because climatology says so, but climatology has been blown out of the water in recent years.
1353. Drakoen 11:03 AM EDT on June 11, 2008 Amen; I'll second that.....Guess the start of true "blob watching" has commenced....
viking, they have apparently never been through 1 before...is all i can figure
1353. Drakoen

Amen Drak!
Well, it is clear that global warming has caused 91L to be declared...

Just kidding.
1356. extreme236

Thank you for seeing the light!
1362. IKE
Latest unreliable NAM 12Z model shoots it west-NW then NW...similar to what the GFS is showing....

NAM 12Z run...

Link
These twaves have been quite interesting story so far this season coming off the African coast, almost at the rate of about one every three days.

If waters had been a bit warmer in the cATL, we'd have already had a CV hurricane. Last night 91L came into some warmer SST's - 27.4c to 28c and I thought that with the peak of dmax it might could get some convection back over the low level rotation. It was also coming under some decreasing shear on the se side of the wave.

But, the current low level steering is easterly, and it's gonna be tougher getting thru dmin and also it's getting in close proximity to land.

1353. Best post of the day already!
Have fun with the 91L/Blob watching....BBL
1354. 69Viking 11:04 AM EDT on June 11, 2008 You make a good point; if my "old" memory serves me correct, Dr. M actually stated in one of his blogs a few weeks ago that SSTs in parts of the Caribbean could actually support storms year round...However, I think the point of his point was in the context of the "sheer tutorial" which was the heading of the Blog entry.........However, the lowering of sheer in the summer in the tropics is part of the "climatology" per se...It's basically a Summer window of opportunity in terms of sheer,and, you might have the rare anomally very early in the season; I just don not think that 91 may be the one given the very close proximity to SA right now....
When was 91L named? This morning?
See that we now have Invest 91L. Not a surprise to me. Looks very good right now.
1371. IKE
1368. txalwaysprepared 10:12 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
When was 91L named? This morning?


Within the last hour.
all i ask is for a nice storm to stay put in the GOM for about 2 weeks...pump out some great surf and then just disapate. no harm no foul...is that too much to ask for?
1373. IKE
1372. Nolehead 10:15 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
all i ask is for a nice storm to stay put in the GOM for about 2 weeks...pump out some great surf and then just disapate. no harm no foul...is that too much to ask for?


Gas prices.
all i ask is for a nice storm to stay put in the GOM for about 2 weeks...pump out some great surf and then just disapate. no harm no foul...is that too much to ask for?

You must exclusively use biofuels.
91L looks to be on a due W track which will take it ashore along the N coast of SA.

Unless it gains latitude quickly it may not be around this evening.
well yeah that's true also...that's why they need to start drilling in other places, but that's for another place for that blog...sorry everyone..
Notice the last frame streching north. Tropical wave.
Wind shear in the Southern and Central Caribbean has been dropping at a steady clip now and could become favorable for tropical development in the next 48 hours based upon the current trends.
1380. condesa
838.0 hPa - Cuernavaca
774.02 hPa- Mexico City
90- 100% humidity
We're at 5800-7200 ft. elevation.
1381. Drakoen
The NHC thinks thats 91L's 1012mb low will just barely scrape the South American coast.
1375. kmanislander 11:18 AM EDT on June 11, 2008...Hey K-Man...I agree....
1375. G'morning, k'man. Yeah, the low level easterly flow looks like it's going to run right into sAmerica. Look out, Pottery! lol

But, too, it's been part of a large twave and as it gets under less shear, that center may egress more northwards to where more of the convection was yesterday. Slim chances, but it could still happen. It's in warmer waters, so it'll be interesting to see if it can keep building convection during the day.
1366. moonlightcowboy

Yikes, as I've said the water is warm. Notice that warm patch in the NE Gulf, yep, that's where I live which means chances are a storm is going to continue to strengthen as it approaches the coast. Generally in the past the coastal waters are cooler and storms weeken just before landfall.
Good morning all!

So, what are the thoughts about our new invest?
I think this invest it's a surprise for the NHC.
lol, makes you wonder if everything is a suprise to NHC nowadays..
1389. kingy
H'mm, this is almost looking like a fast-forming invest. Surprising so early in the season and also surprising that conditions have been unfavourable really. I wonder if this is a sign of things to come
1387. WeatherfanPR

I don't think so, based on Best Track data NHC/TPC have been tracking it since last night.


Vorticity looks better than it did last night at the 850mb (left) level and at 700mb. Also, the vorticity area is in an area of less shear as opposed to the area further north where the convection was getting ripped yesterday evening late.
well i got it right with my very early posting of the ascat pic. i even suggested that it was an invest. BRAVO
These "low rider" waves will probably present the greatest threat to the Greater Antilles/Gulf earlier this season (if the A/B highs "set" in place near the current locations)....But, once the ITCZ lifts a little more, come August, they will probably be moving further North towards the northernm tier of the Lesser Antilles, and, that dreaded US approach through the Turks and Caicos........
1394. Michfan
I see we have something to watch finally. Its been boring as of late.
1367. weathermanwannabe

I agree, the close proximity to SA will hinder development but then again look at our two previous tropical storms that didn't die very fast over land in the mountains of Central America.
1396. Michfan
1392 you may have been right about the invest but the ASCAT didn't support it having a closed low as you had clamed. There were no westerly winds associated with it, which still makes it an open circulation. It may close up as the day progresses.
1395. 69Viking 11:47 AM EDT on June 11, 2008 Thats exactly what makes this "science" so unpredictable; you need to have many of the primary factors, including track and proximity to land, "gel" at any given point in time for a particular wave to make it all the way to a closed circulation and TD status..........This one (and it is only a wave and not a TD at this point) may be riding a little too low and the proximity to land will make it difficult to form a closed low......You make a point as to "disruption" of an exisitng storm, but here, we are lookin at hinderances to cyclo-genisis; proximity to land is a very real impediment to this system....
Meh, I've hardly noticed the boring tropics, as I've been turning my muscles to jello trying to sandbag against the rising waters here in the midwest :P (Iowa City). That jet stream has been a nightmare for us; we're going to be going over our "100 year flood" mark by a (un)healthy margin.
1399. OUSHAWN
I wouldn't make too much of 91L. It looks destined to meet it's death when it hits SA as so many of these waves have done..."the graveyard" for those waves that never seem to catch enough latitude.
Photobucket

Obstacles and inhibitors yet to overcome.
1402. IKE
398. KarenRei 10:53 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
Meh, I've hardly noticed the boring tropics, as I've been turning my muscles to jello trying to sandbag against the rising waters here in the midwest :P (Iowa City). That jet stream has been a nightmare for us; we're going to be going over our "100 year flood" mark by a (un)healthy margin.


Sorry to read of your troubles...good luck...hope it gets better!
1398. KarenRei

Ouch, sorry to here that KarenRei. I grew up in SE MN near the mighty Mississippi river and it's never a good thing when that river floods.
1386. smmcdavid

Good morning back at you SMMC! Yep, something tropical to watch and talk about this morning.
1405. Patrap
GOES-12 GOM IR Loop Link

Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour) GOES-12 3 Channel views Link
1406. Drakoen
Here's the FTP site to the Ships intensity forecast. You can see what there are based on.
Link
Hi MLC

Not on really that much this morning-- work to do LOL

Will check in later to see if 91L scrapes by over Trinidad and Tobago.

I guess Pottery will have to take another look at his calabash tree leaves LMAO
Yeah, all of the stuff that we on the tributaries are experiencing is going to end up in the Mississippi, so the end of our disaster could be the start of theirs.

The ducks seem to love it, though :P Every where you go, happy-looking ducks paddling around former parks and neighborhood streets.
1407. LOL, K'man. Yeah, it's time for our "lookout" down there on the point to start giving us first-hand storm reports! ;P
456
do you have the latest QuickScat of 91L?
im mowing my grass here in oklahoma like i would if i lived in the south. we have had so much rain i cant even get on the lakes. the other day we launched our boat from a parking lot. Were scheduled for rain tomorrow and friday as well..... I think I saw a cat with gills the other day!!
1412. IKE
1406. Drakoen 11:04 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
Here's the FTP site to the Ships intensity forecast. You can see what there are based on.
Link


Looks like a WNW direction.
the link's on my blog
1414. Drakoen
1412. IKE 4:12 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
1406. Drakoen 11:04 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
Here's the FTP site to the Ships intensity forecast. You can see what there are based on.
Link

Looks like a WNW direction.


Yea. It will probably graze by the northern South American coast. The low-level steering currents in the Caribbean is similar to what the BAMS model is showing.
1415. sky1989
I think that even if 91L fails to become any stronger it is still significant that it got as strong as it did since it is only early June. The tropics will probably be very interesting when mid-July comes.
IKE thanks for answering my question :)
INVEST 91L

IT'S NATURAL FOR HURRICANE WATCHERS TO GET EXCITED OVER AN INVEST IN THE ATLANTIC IN THE EARLY HURRICANE SEASON. HOWEVER, AS STATED IN MY EARLIER FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY, WE'RE NOT LIKELY TO SEE BERTHA UNTIL ABOUT JULY 10, POSSIBLY LATER.

REGARDING 91L, THE INFORMATION COMING IN TO MY WEATHER DESK IN NEW ORLEANS INDICATES THAT A COMBINATION OF FACTORS -- SHEAR, THE LATITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

I WILL KEEP YOU ADVISED OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS.

//FORECASTER//STROMTOP
1414. And, the BAMMS are probably more accurate at this point than most of any others would be. Of course, doesn't look like some of them are even picking it up yet! LOL, it'll be interesting to see the GFDL get on here and start squirming back and forth and around.
new blog
1420. IKE
1416. txalwaysprepared 11:20 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
IKE thanks for answering my question :)


Your welcome.