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Tropics quiet except for disturbance 97L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:24 PM GMT on July 26, 2008

A tropical disturbance (97L) in the mid-Atlantic ocean consists of a closed circulation with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast. The disturbance is under about 20 knots of wind shear and is over waters of about 26.5°C, and there is some dry air to the west. These are very marginal conditions for tropical storm formation. Conditions will gradually become more favorable for development over the few days, but none of the computer models are developing this system. 97L will probably not affect any land areas, although Bermuda should keep an eye on it.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

44 years ago I was in a small country called Vietnam.
499.

I know that I have, I don't even need to look at the link to see them, they are some of my earliest mental images of the real horror of what a hurricane can do. Unbelievable.
The 29th of Aug will be a Day as the last 2 have been,.. one of Bells ringing,..Remembrance and healing.

Never wish for Calamity,..and never forget those lost to it.

We will be mindful of ALL the Lost from the Past Hurricanes as we Ponder what Happened across the Entire Gulf Coast on that Day.

And always Grateful to Dr. Master's entry from the 28th of August 2005.Link

Im sure it saved Lives.
Without a doubt.

501.

Me too!!
No - I have the book at our place in the keys, have been collection the history.

Did you know that in the 1900 or thereabouts census - there were only about 60 people actually living in the Florida Keys. That doesn't count Key West, just the islands from there up to the mainland.
Aww man, I missed tropical trivia?! I need to get on it next time. Gotta split again...
The real Hero's Storm W was the ones that didn't make it back. I was lucked only was wounded and not bad.
The Hurricane Party at the Richileau Apts In Miss on Hwy 90 occurred as a real event,by some..with others denying as well, presslord.

One persistent account about Camille states that a hurricane party was held on the third floor of the Richelieu Manor Apartments in Pass Christian, Mississippi, in the path of the eyewall as it made landfall. The high storm surge flooded and destroyed the building, and there was only one survivor to tell of the story of the others. Who the survivor is, how many party guests there were, and just how far the sole survivor was swept by the storm varies with the retelling. The show Quantum Leap carried an episode regarding the parties of Hurricane Camille and the actual hurricane itself. Survivor Ben Duckworth is quoted in Hurricane Camille: Monster Storm of the Gulf Coast as stating that the Richelieu was a designated civil defense air-raid shelter. However, their faith in the building's sturdiness was unfounded, as it was completely demolished by the storm. Twenty-three people are known to have stayed in the Richelieu Apartments during the hurricane, of whom eight died. The tale of the lone survivor and the party appears to have originated with survivor Mary Ann Gerlach. Other survivors, including Duckworth and Richard Keller have expressed irritation at the story.[10][11] "The hurricane party never happened, nor were the number of deaths associated with the apartment inhabitants accurate," says Pat Fitzpatrick, Mississippi State University professor and author of Hurricanes: A Reference

Before Camille Link

After Camille Link
Sailor - all of you were heroes - some just made it back to tell about the others.

No matter how many times I visit the Vietnam memorial I'm overwhelmed by the number of mostly young men who never came home, and how important it is that we never forget that.
508.

This country treated you as villians when your only aim was to serve, it was a terrible time for so many who were valliant in the face of a terrible enemy - their own people. Very sad...
Okay folks...here it is

Experience Hurricane Dolly - The Director's Cut

is now online at YouTube. It's about 10 minutes long, has additional footage, better editing, special effect shots, and is supposed to be the best quality available on YouTube. I'm not seeing it yet, but some FAQs say you have to wait some time before the quality gets good. I uploaded a 640 X 480 WMV file. It looks great on my computer, but on YouTube, sadly...it's lacking. But, nevertheless, it is a better video than the first effort.

As always...enjoy! :)

Oz---

PS: I've got another surprise later tonight for everyone! :)
anyone who serves is my hero....my Dad was (is) a Marine Corp officer...my son is planning to go to the Coast Guard Academy...wants to fly for the Coasties...I well up with tears at the thought of it...
There are some things you never forget - this is an apartment complex about 5 miles from where I live. One of my friends lived here - this is from Andrew.

I spent 4 years in Navy with 2 of them with the Marines in Vietnam.

I see the models are not making much of 97L StormW, but the they didn't make much of Dolly at first so guess wait and see..
son has also talked about wanting to fly Hurriccane Hunters....which I think is just psychotic...but I likely don't get a vote....
Hey HEY HEY!

There's a WATCH IN HIGH QUALITY BUTTON on the bottom of the video screen! HIT THAT!
Press - take heart, there are probably about 10,000 other people who also want to fly - they can only take so many!
A Semper Fidelis for the Corps..


..and a Semper Paratus for StormW.

Im gonna Log on outta here folks.
Sweet Dreams..
yea zoo...but this kid soloed on his 16th birthday...he's pretty driven....
The Dolly footage is cool.

But I'd advise Investing in some Headgear for Personal Cranial Protection next time.



Those Guys were one Loose Roof artifact away from a Bad Hair day..
Permamently.
stormw...he'll be a HS senior...the Coasties really want him...are recruiting him HARD....Any words of wisdom?
Man..sitting here with the Headphones on..the wife say,..ya better check da radar.
Sure Nuff..Boomers around...again

Radr,Nola Link
AT least I can turn the A/C off a while..

Nitey again..
thanks...I'll pass it along ....he's a lot more stable and focused than I was at 17....
Pat would know the name - the Blue Angels? The group that goes around the country flying the jets?
well...I was focused....on beer and girls...he's a tad smarter than his old man....
Storm won't say these things but I can, having been a Coastie wife - the Coast Guard is one of the best places to serve - small enough not to get lost, big enough to have room to move, and the jobs the Coasties do is unbelievable. They are asked to take on missions no one else will, and they usually succeed.

It's not an accident that the Coast Guard rescued more people than anyone else during Katrina. No waiting to see who was going to say go - they just did.
Hi all -
This may be a tad off topic - given the current blog - but -
I just want to know that I appreciate all of you (even in your worst debates) for the information discussed while storms approach the gulf. Though I think most of us in the greater New Orleans area believe that the NHC is statistically accurate - you all provide more information that what is usually available via the news (That helps)

I think we are a tad gun shy in New Orleans with the national predictions - given the Katrina's predicted path - and it's actual landfall. Granted we had warnings starting Friday evening before late Sunday's landfall - but the experience taught me that I have to be more proactive about paths - want to know ALL the model predictions - not the aggregate. You all have hooked me into sites I probably would never have found on my own. Thanks!

I am sure many other "lurkers" like myself appreciate the resource this blog offers..!

I LOVE the Coast Guard....spent a lot of my life offshore on boats...haven't needed 'em yet (knock wood)...but when the day comes I do, I sure like knowing they're one short radio call away....they do a wonderful job...
I remember that - the guys use to tease us about it - but they actually were serious.

Most people have no idea of how many people the Coast Guard saves in the course of a year. Compared to the other forces, the small numbers make each individual an important part, and in my opinion, is one of the reasons that it is a great place to be.
In the Northeast the CG auxialiary was very important, helped them patrol on weekends etc, provided safety boating classes, etc. I was one of the first women Auxialiary officers in the early 80's. Serving with retired colonels, admirals, and some others, it was an opportunity.
was boarded by them once between Key West and Ft. Jefferson...they were just checking things out...I assume looking for drugs...they were pleasant , professioanl...was actually a pretty cool experience...
Storm - since it is slow - what is the worst storm you saw while you were active duty?
No Storm thank YOU - and Kudos to the thick skin most of you knowledgeable people out there have to deal with the emotions that run high when there is a storm aloft!
Evenin, folks

Looks like that recurve was a tad early
Tropical Cyclone Warning #23 (0000z 27Jul)
=========================================

SUBJECT: "Category Three Typhoon" In Sea South of Okinawa

At 9:00 AM JST, Typhoon Fung-wong (970 hPa) lcoated near 21.7N 124.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts up to 95 knots. The storm is reported as moving west-northwest at 7 knots.

Storm-Force Winds
===================
60 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 23.9N 121.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 26.7N 118.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 28.5N 117.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
Hi Baja - did you come to join all 4 of us here this evening? lol
LOL Zoo!! Evenin, hun. Sure is quiet huh? May not be much going on in the tropics but the setup over the CONUS is kind of intersting
How so Baja?
97L is pulling something off here,
I think its reforming a low in the deeper convection.
Link
Notice how the thunderstorms aren't being sheared off the the NE like before...the convection has consolidated somewhat...the low level swirl is still off to the SW of the main convection however wouldn't surprise me if a new center formed.
How did the trivia game go guys?
Quoting zoomiami:
How did the trivia game go guys?


Not too bad...a little unorganized but it was fun.
stormw...I could listen to that sorta stuff all night...50 ft wave musta been sumpin'....
I know that buoy Storm, and I heard about the duty on the light ships before - we were stationed at Avon by the sea - when it was still a full time station that is.

I can not imagine seeing a wave that high - I would die of the fright.
Well, I'm watching the SE for one (of course..lol) couple of shortwaves dropping down. Nice thunderstorms as a result this afernoon. Also watching Dolly's remnants. It really flared up this afternoon
another good hurricane book is the story of the sailing ship which went down during Mitch...I forget the name of the book and the boat...but it oughta be on every hurricane freak's bookshelf....
"The Ship and the Storm" s/v Fantome...
Press - is that the one with the guy and the 2 girls? he didn't want to abandon ship?
What's the action protocol for that? Commence cursing loudly?!?!?!
and hang on tight...
zoo...that scenario was from The Perfect Storm....and there's an argument to be made that he was right to want to sttay aboard...
Storm - at what point did they start with the swimmers? During our time you were not allowed in the water, as a matter of fact my ex got in trouble for going into the surf after people when a boat broke up in front of them.
Hi StormW
Link

I like watching that, zoo...and reading discussions. Lots going on there!
Press - you are great with the books. Another very interesting read, although not very long, is about the Hurricane that hit Lake Okeechobee. Again very sad, due to misunderstandings based on the knoweldge of the day, many people went back home, and ended up being dragged out to the everglades.
Baja - its interesting how the two areas are rotating in tandem - certainly looks like they are creating a lot of moisture.

Pat said earlier there were boomers at his house, can see why.
Riiiiiiiiiight. That second shortwave should bring much of the same again tomorrow
Well - I'm off - been at the computer for too much today. Thanks for the stories Storm - anytime you are willing to share, we are more than willing to listen.

Press - I will have to look for the book about Mitch.

Night all
97L is very small... So if it develops into anything, whatever it is will be small in size.
If you want to read a good sea mans book, read "The Grey Seas Under". Its about the Ocean going Tug called the Foundation Franklin. There is also another one about the Foundation Josephine another Ocean going Tugboat.
571.

Wow - and I thought I had it tough with a class of special needs students. What you have related tonite is - AWESOME!! Thanks StormW!! Fascinating!!
cool orca...I'll track 'em down...
We should all get together and charter a nice big boat for a few days and go hurricane hunting ;) I bet there are enough people on this board that we could assembly at least a motley crew, give all of us couch potatoes a real sense of one is...

Some people chase a tornado, I rather chase a cat 1 or 2 around >:)
stormw...that's one of the coolest things I've ever read...those guys...and gals...are somethin'.....
Quoting BadHouse:
We should all get together and charter a nice big boat for a few days and go hurricane hunting ;) I bet there are enough people on this board that we could assembly at least a motley crew, give all of us couch potatoes a real sense of one is...

Some people chase a tornado, I rather chase a cat 1 or 2 around >:)


Not a chance in Hell :)
and a dollar says you won't get StormW to go either. Been there a lot more then once.. and I would never go back.. on purpose.
I second that Storm - I never could get it to work. Thanks for the link, I will read through it.

I know I said I was leaving - but -- Orca you also were Navy for many years - what was the worst storm you were in?
Storm, I can't remember what channel it was on but they did a nice documentary on those guys (Might have been TWC).
584. ATS3
WORST HURRICANE FORECASTER MILES LAWRANCE

BEST NHC DIRECTOR DR NEIL FRACK

WORST NHC DIRECTOR BOB BURPIE

COMMENTS PLEASE


Hey all...

Just checkin in.. Nothing much devloping or forcasted to devlop... MJO motion is down but thats not the end all be all factor. 4 more months of Huricane Season to go..
I have been in Hurricanes and Typhon's. The worst was neither of those. Winter storm, 100+ knot winds.. in the Hecate Straits. Seas in excess of 70 ft, in 20 fathoms of water. By the time it was over, there was nothing left on the upper decks... no rafts, or rails. RU Ammo lockers were gone, and over 2 Million in damages.
Quoting ATS3:
WORST HURRICANE FORECASTER MILES LAWRANCE

BEST NHC DIRECTOR DR NEIL FRACK

WORST NHC DIRECTOR BOB BURPIE

COMMENTS PLEASE




Whats wrong with Lawrence?
Quoting StormW:
579. BadHouse 10:23 PM EDT on July 26, 2008
We should all get together and charter a nice big boat for a few days and go hurricane hunting ;) I bet there are enough people on this board that we could assembly at least a motley crew, give all of us couch potatoes a real sense of one is...

Some people chase a tornado, I rather chase a cat 1 or 2 around >:)



No offense...but be my guest. Please read post 552. My boys and gals will be lookin for ya after ya sink!


ideas like this keep your folks in business storm
590. beell
ATS3,
COMMENTS PLEASE

WORST BUTCHERING OF LAST NAMES:
ATS3

Lawrence
Frank
Burpee
I'm with storm....I'll help ya untie the docklines and bid you a fond farewell....
Quoting BadHouse:
We should all get together and charter a nice big boat for a few days and go hurricane hunting ;) I bet there are enough people on this board that we could assembly at least a motley crew, give all of us couch potatoes a real sense of one is...

Some people chase a tornado, I rather chase a cat 1 or 2 around >:)
take yer boat to the flemish cap thats a good spot
LOL, evenin beell
595. kdav
whats up guys im back.lets do some more trivia
Well, Stick me in a buoy then ;) There must be some entertainingly realtively inexpensive way to do it safely, I'm not saying I wanna take a row boat and sail on my merry way ;)
i can see the rats jumping from that boat now
598. beell
still *snikerin* here ..BajaAL.
j/k ATS3!
Theres a good movie out a about the CG Rescue Swimmers which stars Dennis Quaid. I can't rember the name but I do remember that the took pages from the actual training program. Alot of it is Hollywood though.
601. ATS3
FORGET THE SPELLINGS RATE THE FORECASTERS. MILES IS NO LONGER AT THE NHC HE FINISHED IN 01
Nite, Storm
603. kdav
tamapmishy r u on.
later storm
This time I'm really going - nite all
stormw...my favorite idiot on the water story...I was about 8 miles past the Charleston jetties...weather was OK but a little choppy...suddenly I saw two jetskis on the crest of a swell...maneuvered over to them and asked if the needed help...both drunk..."nah, man, we're OK"...I called the Coasties anyway...the next morning they found 'em at the South end of Seabrook Island on a little shoal about 20 miles south....drunks offshore on jetskis is precisely the reason we need the Coasyies...
ROFL Zoo!! Nite
Quoting StormW:
542. zoomiami 9:46 PM EDT on July 26, 2008
Storm - since it is slow - what is the worst storm you saw while you were active duty?


Well, when I first got out of Basic Training, I got staioned on a Cutter out of Portsmouth, VA. 327ft High Endurance Cutter from WWII. They use to pull convoy duty. She served in 'nam as well. When I got aboard, our missions were mainly Ocean Weather staion duty. We used to pull HOTEL. If you go to the NDBC map, 200 mi. east of Cape May, NJ. You'll see buoy HOTEL. Well, before a buoy was there, we used to do 1 month of obs. So between Tropical systems and wintertime storms, it wasn't uncommont to take 30-40 ft seas.

Now, on my last ship, 270 ft Medium Endurance Cutter, we got caught in Gordon of NOV 1994. Though he was only a CAT1, because we were not too far from the Hatteras coast, we took some nasty seas...averaging 35-40 ft. Here's the kicker, we took a 50 ft rogue wave, listed over 45-50 degrees on our port side. Luckily, we came back from it. I honestly thought we would capsize. I wound up with a GRADE 1 A/C separation of my left shoulder. Still hurts to this very day.


wow, good story!
There are some good shows on A&E and the Discovery Channel. The USCG & Canadian Coast Guard do all of their West Coast Rib and crash boat training at Cape Flattery and the Admiralty Inlet, more nice places to stay away from :)
I've seen some of that orca...you're right...those are good places not to go....
by the way for those interested.. most of my family in Harlingen Texas near south padre island wont have power until thursday or friday. they took it pretty good down there..
Quoting StormW:
596. BadHouse 10:35 PM EDT on July 26, 2008
Well, Stick me in a buoy then ;) There must be some entertainingly realtively inexpensive way to do it safely, I'm not saying I wanna take a row boat and sail on my merry way ;)


Not really...They toss our Cutters around like corks!


ROFLMAO, they toss us around like corks, and we were 366 ft long.

HMCS Gatineau
614. Hhunter

I saw some vid someone from there posted on youtube. Wow, pretty nasty. Glad they're safe..albeit a little toasty, I'd guess
Quoting presslord:
I've seen some of that orca...you're right...those are good places not to go....


I did the Rib course in Ucuelet, once is enough :)
enjoy the the quiet tropics and i really dont like seeing the trops being so null and void of activity but theres nothing but a little convection over cuba/hati at the moment maybe the calm before the storms i guess
Hey Badhouse? I'm curious. Do you live somewhere where you don't get hurricanes?
Quoting kdav:
tamapmishy r u on.
I am now
hello everyone, i was wondering if anyone has a link that shows both coasts of africa. I would like to see how the waves that come off the coast form over the mainland. just thought since the traffic was slow someone could help me out, thanks in advance
Yea in Harlingen they consider Dolly the worst storm sense Buelah in 1967
Quoting drj10526:
hello everyone, i was wondering if anyone has a link that shows both coasts of africa. I would like to see how the waves that come off the coast form over the mainland. just thought since the traffic was slow someone could help me out, thanks in advance


Use Google Earth
Keeperofthegate I like your avatar. : )
622. drj10526

EUMETSAT

SSEC
thankyou tm
cycloneboz. Awesome. The next time you are storm chasing in my neighborhood let me know though and I'll loan you one of my helments:')
Hhunter sorry to hear about your family not having electricity I freak out here when it goes off for a minute....I couldn't imagine waiting that long.
Welcome
Quoting Hhunter:
Yea in Harlingen they consider Dolly the worst storm sense Buelah in 1967


CAT 2's are nothing to underestimate as they see now.
Well folks, you get a two-fer tonight!

I've just released my newest animation:

The GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector - July 2008

REMEMBER TO PRESS THE "WATCH IN HIGH QUALITY" LINK WHEN YOU GET THERE!

This video features Bertha, The "C" storm, and Dolly.

As always, enjoy!

And if you haven't seen it yet, watch my other newest video, "Experience Hurricane Dolly - The Director's Cut"

Peace out, ya'll. I'm beat! :)


far western pacific...some down the road energy...
Was that the guy in the video of Dolly standing outside?
thanks orcasystems
just like the tropics the blogs are quiet tonight
It is very slow in here
Quoting TampaMishy:
Was that the guy in the video of Dolly standing outside?


My guess would be outside his brain and common sense :)
It's almost like offseason but the winter weather folks arent here :))
lol Orca
642. kdav
yeah theres a strong typhoon in the pacific near taiwan
Hi Baja
644. kdav
it is slow in here but wait till we get another invest. even better when we get a storm far out everyone has to post their own tracks
very nice videos...do you have a guess on max wind speed....
Ok, maybe I'm a little warped...but, I wish he'd slow the part down where that guy gets blown down ( !! Like popeye!! "Well blow me down!"..hahahaha) :)) :))
It was crazy in here during Dolly..people were fighting and arguing and everything.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Quoting Hhunter:
Yea in Harlingen they consider Dolly the worst storm sense Buelah in 1967


CAT 2's are nothing to underestimate as they see now.


I actually think there is a slight chance they revise it after the season is over and classify it as mild cat 3
Hiya Mish
lol baja
Later people.. am off to the races :)
Nite, Orca
653. kdav
Quoting Hhunter:
Quoting CybrTeddy:

Quoting Hhunter:
Yea in Harlingen they consider Dolly the worst storm sense Buelah in 1967


CAT 2's are nothing to underestimate as they see now.


I actually think there is a slight chance they revise it after the season is over and classify it as mild cat 3
i honestly think dolly will be retired. i dont think she will be upgraded to cat 3 but she sure did rapidly intensify
KDAV, can I go ahead and post a track on here for a storm that hasn't developed from an invest that doesn't exist? LOL.
How do they determine when a name is retired? If people die they do that?
656. kdav
Quoting fire831rescue:
KDAV, can I go ahead and post a track on here for a storm that hasn't developed from an invest that doesn't exist? LOL.
lol
I didn't know kdav was giving out permission on here...lol
Depends...here's a link re: retirement

Link
659. kdav
Quoting TampaMishy:
How do they determine when a name is retired? If people die they do that?
generally if damage exceeds 1.5 billion nd if more than 60 people die a storm is retired. even allison a ts was retired
Well, I figured I'd ask somebody...
661. kdav
Quoting TampaMishy:
I didn't know kdav was giving out permission on here...lol
only taz gives orders
Thank you Baja....I see my name was retired in 2001
thank you kdav also for the info
Welcs
665. kdav
ur welcome. anyone know who won the trivia game earlier. i had two points but left for some burgers.
very slow
667. kdav
tampamishy u got the score of the rays game. i know my sox lost again but i need to know if rays won or lost so we didnt fall behind anymore
Gotta work in the am...y'all enjoy the rest of your evening *poof*
Wasn't me!
nite baja
671. kdav
this is uber slow. someone just start posting pics of hurricanes. heres a question: jim cantore or joe bastardi in a steel cage. who ya got?
how many burgers did u eat?
rays won... rays wins the al east, boston gets wildcard, yankees out
675. kdav
i just had one but it was big. five guys burgers nd fries. good place to have a burger
Go rays!
Quoting kdav:
this is uber slow. someone just start posting pics of hurricanes. heres a question: jim cantore or joe bastardi in a steel cage. who ya got?


$100 on Cantore!
678. kdav
Quoting vabeachurricanes222:
rays won... rays wins the al east, boston gets wildcard, yankees out
darn
Can't say I have been there or heard of it..I'm sure its good though
I saw something!!..... Oh.... wait.... ummm..... nevermind. It was a fly on my screen... Darn!
Quoting kdav:
i just had one but it was big. five guys burgers nd fries. good place to have a burger


gotta love five guys... but none where i live
=(
Was that a joke?
683. kdav
Quoting Stoopid1:
Quoting kdav:
this is uber slow. someone just start posting pics of hurricanes. heres a question: jim cantore or joe bastardi in a steel cage. who ya got?


$100 on Cantore!
i kinda agree but have u seen bastardi hes ripped. i would go with cantore cuz he wants to impress stephanie abrams
eewwwww probaly a knat!
It was a cheap shot at one, but it flopped. Guess my mind went with the blog...
Quoting kdav:
Quoting Stoopid1:

Quoting kdav:
this is uber slow. someone just start posting pics of hurricanes. heres a question: jim cantore or joe bastardi in a steel cage. who ya got?


$100 on Cantore!
i kinda agree but have u seen bastardi hes ripped. i would go with cantore cuz he wants to impress stephanie abrams


cantore controls the universe... so therefore hes kinda like chuck norris for weather lol...
I'm confused here I thought you were telling a joke Kdav
688. kdav
it was a good joke imho.
Cantore is hot! But I like him with hair better
Where's Cantore when you need a storm to brighten your blog days.... LOL.
691. kdav
Quoting TampaMishy:
I'm confused here I thought you were telling a joke Kdav
well it depends if u laughed then yeah i was telling a joke but if u just looked at the screen with a stare then no.
?whats the punch line?
I put my question mark waiting for the answer
I think I have a crush on TampaMishy :-)

I always hear that Tampa is long overdue for a hurricane. Especially late in the season with storms coming up out of the Carribean, they tend to bend right with all the fronts coming through.

695. kdav
Quoting TampaMishy:
?whats the punch line?
i never told a joke mish.
696. kdav
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
I think I have a crush on TampaMishy :-)

I always hear that Tampa is long overdue for a hurricane. Especially late in the season with storms coming up out of the Carribean, they tend to bend right with all the fronts coming through.

remeber what mishy said. a hurricane will NEVER hit tampa
Wow. The blog has come to a complete stop. I don't think this train's leaving the station for a while....
No hurricane's here since 1921 I believe just brushes of other people's hurricane's...I believe Tampa is safe from such a catastrophe.
699. kdav
anyone know if stephanie abrams is married. if so who is the luckiest man on earth?
Thats right! I feel safe here
Alright, ya'll. I think I'm outta here for the night. Be back tomorrow. (Sheesh.... I just showed where I'm form with the ya'll part...)
I have no idea if she is or not
Quoting CycloneBoz:
Well folks, you get a two-fer tonight!

I've just released my newest animation:

The GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector - July 2008

REMEMBER TO PRESS THE "WATCH IN HIGH QUALITY" LINK WHEN YOU GET THERE!

This video features Bertha, The "C" storm, and Dolly.

As always, enjoy!

And if you haven't seen it yet, watch my other newest video, "Experience Hurricane Dolly - The Director's Cut"

Peace out, ya'll. I'm beat! :)



Cool!!!
Quoting TampaMishy:
No hurricane's here since 1921 I believe just brushes of other people's hurricane's...I believe Tampa is safe from such a catastrophe.

Careful Mishy...you don't want to jinx yourself there...remember it's still the very beginning of the year, lol
705. kdav
man if she is. that man is so lucky.
Quoting quakeman55:
Quoting TampaMishy:
No hurricane's here since 1921 I believe just brushes of other people's hurricane's...I believe Tampa is safe from such a catastrophe.

Careful Mishy...you don't want to jinx yourself there...remember it's still the very beginning of the year, lol

True but I'm not worried about it
Quoting TampaMishy:
It was crazy in here during Dolly..people were fighting and arguing and everything.


This is my first season here, is it always like that
lol kdav
amen kdav... she is pretty hot, although sharon resultan isnt too bad either
710. kdav
i can honestly say that jacksonville is never gonna get hit. we r really in a place that is almost climatologically impossible to get hit. i know thats weird to say fot a florida coastal city but it sure seems like it.

#698
tm no it isnt
tampa has been recorded to get eastward moving gom canes
cat 4 has been recorded to happen there with 32 ft surge so dont be fooled when it does its going to be bad
good evening everyone,is slow here,i guess everyone is taking a break after dolly.but at least we have 97 l which right now is a naked swirl but that could change in a couple of days when this circulation move to the west-northwest and encounter favorable enviroment.
Quoting LPStormspotter:
Quoting TampaMishy:
It was crazy in here during Dolly..people were fighting and arguing and everything.


This is my first season here, is it always like that
This is really my 1st year in this blog also I think I posted a few things last year but when it gets bust watch OUT!
Keeper when was the last cat4 here?
Quoting LPStormspotter:
Quoting TampaMishy:
It was crazy in here during Dolly..people were fighting and arguing and everything.


This is my first season here, is it always like that


This is my 3rd Season on here, it wasn't always like this, in fact it got out of control when TS Chris neared Hurricane Strength. Thats when the madness started.
busy*
717. kdav
Quoting TampaMishy:
Quoting LPStormspotter:

Quoting TampaMishy:
It was crazy in here during Dolly..people were fighting and arguing and everything.


This is my first season here, is it always like that
This is really my 1st year in this blog also I think I posted a few things last year but when it gets bust watch OUT!
this is my first year too. i cant wait till it gets active the blog will go crazy. i just dont want no landfalls.
718. kdav
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Quoting LPStormspotter:

Quoting TampaMishy:
It was crazy in here during Dolly..people were fighting and arguing and everything.


This is my first season here, is it always like that


This is my 3rd Season on here, it wasn't always like this, in fact it got out of control when TS Chris neared Hurricane Strength. Thats when the madness started.
i remember chris. it was after 05 season nd when the forecast came out it was going to nola as a hurricane. cnn went crazy but he was a bust thank goodness. he fizzled out if i can remeber
Kdav you said where you live you are virtually safe from any type of hurricane activity
Wow i was very surprised by the anger issues.. It’s kind of funny
Quoting LPStormspotter:
Wow i was very surprised by the anger issues.. It’s kind of funny
I don't think its anger it's just who is provng who is right and who is wrong and alot of passing of crow to one another.
722. kdav
Quoting TampaMishy:
Kdav you said where you live you are virtually safe from any type of hurricane activity
yeah jacksonville in north florida. we only have one diraect hit period nd that was dolly in 1964. canes either hit miami or go to carolina or go out to sea. they never make it up here for some reason.
Quoting kdav:
Quoting TampaMishy:
Kdav you said where you live you are virtually safe from any type of hurricane activity
yeah jacksonville in north florida. we only have one diraect hit period nd that was dolly in 1964. canes either hit miami or go to carolina or go out to sea. they never make it up here for some reason.
Same as here
Quoting TampaMishy:
Quoting LPStormspotter:
Wow i was very surprised by the anger issues.. It’s kind of funny
I don't think its anger it's just who is provng who is right and who is wrong and alot of passing of crow to one another.


Yea your right maybe a few ego's
Quoting TampaMishy:
Thats right! I feel safe here


- The City of New Orlenes, Pre-Katrina.
'So many missed, Camile and Andrew, we never had any issues, we are safe here here in New Orlenes from Hurricanes, non have ever hit us.' - Interview
by CBS news to a Family regarding Hurricanes.
kdav

why does your messages show up closed on the list you have to hit the show button
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Quoting TampaMishy:
Thats right! I feel safe here


- The City of New Orlenes, Pre-Katrina.
'So many missed, Camile and Andrew, we never had any issues, we are safe here here in New Orlenes from Hurricanes, non have ever hit us.' - Interview
by CBS news to a Family regarding Hurricanes.
I'm obviously no weather expert like so many on here but isn't it more likely for New Orleans to get a hurricane then Tampa/St Pete? Somebody told me 1 time about the Northerly pull in the gom...I just don't think we would get hit directly on...
728. kdav
Quoting LPStormspotter:
kdav

why does your messages show up closed on the list you have to hit the show button
idk. the same happens to me as i have to do the same with other people.
He likes it that way
730. kdav
Quoting TampaMishy:
He likes it that way
thats how i roll. off topic but heath ledger for oscar. whos with me?
Quoting kdav:
Quoting TampaMishy:
He likes it that way
thats how i roll. off topic but heath ledger for oscar. whos with me?
I havent seen the movie yet
Is Dark Knight that good? I heard it was.
733. kdav
Quoting TampaMishy:
Quoting kdav:

Quoting TampaMishy:
He likes it that way
thats how i roll. off topic but heath ledger for oscar. whos with me?
I havent seen the movie yet
u gotta see it. just for ledgers performance is enough. best movie ever.
Quoting TampaMishy:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Quoting TampaMishy:
Thats right! I feel safe here


- The City of New Orlenes, Pre-Katrina.
'So many missed, Camile and Andrew, we never had any issues, we are safe here here in New Orlenes from Hurricanes, non have ever hit us.' - Interview
by CBS news to a Family regarding Hurricanes.
I'm obviously no weather expert like so many on here but isn't it more likely for New Orleans to get a hurricane then Tampa/St Pete? Somebody told me 1 time about the Northerly pull in the gom...I just don't think we would get hit directly on...


Tampa's even more open to a hit. Lets take Charley for Example, the system was suppose to hit, what, Pensacola? Then the Cold front, little stronger than they thought, Pushed it right into the Florida Peninsula, It seemed at first Tampa would be Directly hit by a CAT 4 Hurricane, but thankfully the cold front was to close to pull it into Tampa.

That shoulda been Tampa's hint that we our not invincible to Hurricanes, and we were spared a Horrid fate, if Charley hit Tampa it would have been Pretty bad, even were Charley hit the Storm was one of the most costly storms in History.
Quoting kdav:
Quoting TampaMishy:
He likes it that way
thats how i roll. off topic but heath ledger for oscar. whos with me?


Me either
736. kdav
Quoting broncosfan:
Is Dark Knight that good? I heard it was.
amazing. worth every dollar.
good night everyone..
738. kdav
anyone got their most memorable hurricane story? man it is slow up in this b.
I couldnt believe the box office #'s. Could break Titanic's record.
Cyber obviously you know more than I do about hurricane's and I know all about Charlie I was here and I had my parents in Fort Myers at the time...I'm not going to even mutter another word about Tampa and hurricanes because when I do I get knocked down for it.
741. kdav
its on pace to be make 300 million quicker than anyone.
really?
722 kdav. That storm was Dora 1964. Came in at Ponta Vedra as a strong cat 2. I was there. 1st experience with hurricane in my memory. I was 8 yrs old. We were without power for 17 days. We lived on Julington Creek.
Wow 17 days without power! Thats horrible
Can you imagine the backend money that those actors will make. Seems everyone now is trying to put out a remake of a classic comic book.
t m
on sept 25 1848 a major made landfall on tampa near fort brooke tides rose 15 feet with storm
747. kdav
Quoting scottiesaunt:
722 kdav. That storm was Dora 1964. Came in at Ponta Vedra as a strong cat 2. I was there. 1st experience with hurricane in my memory. I was 8 yrs old. We were without power for 17 days. We lived on Julington Creek.
wow. i talked to my grandpa bout it nd how he was without power for a couple weeks. it was at the time the costliest cane ever nd president johnson even came to survey the damage.
748. kdav
really anybody is at risk. all it take sis for all the conditions climatilogocally to come together to make the storms path come ur way. even new york has been hit. 1938 long island express
I went through Dennis is Pensacola. Nightmare. We evac. to New Orleans for a friends wedding taking place on the same weekend. 2 weeks without power. Driving back it looked like a war zone. Moved there just after Ivan, which was very bad.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
t m
on sept 25 1848 a major made landfall on tampa near fort brooke tides rose 15 feet with storm
yep 1848 and its 2008 that was the last cat4?
751. kdav
scottiesaunt thnx for the insight. it really makes me think bout my city.
Through the whole wedding, I was sweating what would happen to my house. Not fun to go through.
Quoting broncosfan:
Through the whole wedding, I was sweating what would happen to my house. Not fun to go through.
Sorry to hear that
Actually Keeperofthegate thank you for that information I didn't know that.
755. kdav
hurricane juan hit nova scotia in 2003. it was retired. there u go. really anybody can get hit nd seriously affected
CybrTeddy is right. Charley in 2004 was definitely a hint that Tampa should NEVER let its guard down when it comes to being hit by a hurricane. The only real way for Tampa to get a direct hit is from an approaching trough from the northwest, and the timing would have to be just right between the trough and approaching hurricane...but it can happen (and one day, it will). The thing here is, because of the way the coastline is angled, just a little bit of difference in the direction of the hurricane can mean a big difference in the final landfall location (as Charley proved to us).

If a major hurricane does hit Tampa though, it will be extremely deadly. Tampa's location on the north side of the Tampa Bay makes it exceptionally vulnerable to storm surge. If the right front quadrant of a hurricane hits the city, the shape of the bay will act to channel all of the water and create a much higher surge than it otherwise would, completely inundating all of downtown Tampa, MacDill AFB, much of St. Petersburg, and all surrounding regions. There is no telling how much damage such a hurricane would cause to the Tampa/St. Pete area.
your welcome tm
I wouldnt wish a landfall storm on my worst enemy. Disrupts your whole life. Now we have kids, it makes it even more nerve racking.
Quoting kdav:
hurricane juan hit nova scotia in 2003. it was retired. there u go. really anybody can get hit nd seriously affected
Well, you remember that also Kdav
760. kdav
have u seen it could happen tommorow on twc. they did some on how tampa new orleans nd new york nd houston would be affected
761. kdav
Quoting TampaMishy:
Quoting kdav:
hurricane juan hit nova scotia in 2003. it was retired. there u go. really anybody can get hit nd seriously affected
Well, you remember that also Kdav
actually i just saw that on a website with all retired names. but thnx for the praise anyway
I live in New Orleans (just outside) and I always remember seeing that if a Cat 5 did hit and major flodding occured, all you would be able to see was the very top of the higest skyscrapers in the city.
Quakeman55- That water would go back out though quickly
Dark Knight was good, I liked it.
Quoting kdav:
have u seen it could happen tommorow on twc. they did some on how tampa new orleans nd new york nd houston would be affected

They did one on Savannah, GA as well...that city hasn't had a direct hit by a hurricane in many decades, but it can happen too.
It takes Juan to know Juan... sorry Family Guy reference
its been 60 yrs tm
Quoting TampaMishy:
Quakeman55- That water would go back out though quickly

Not after inflicting many billions of dollars worth of damage between that and the winds...
I think I have kdav
770. kdav
top 5 places that r vulnerable to hurricanes meaning that damage will be worst of anywhere 5. tampa 4. houston/galveston 3. new york/long island 2. nola 1. miami
Thank you Keeperofthegate
772. kdav
yea i saw the one for savannah. i didnt know that many people live there.
Well I'm atleast 30 miles from the gulf anyway so that helps
Since the blog is quiet tonight, I guess I'll say hi to everyone. 12th generation Floridian, so I've been through a few. Just made my 1st post to the main blog, but have been lurking since 05. So many here have been so helpful in making me understand. Thanks for all of the knowledge that you all impart.
775. kdav
Quoting broncosfan:
It takes Juan to know Juan... sorry Family Guy reference
haha i love family guy. pretty bad if we have to quote family guy. thats when u know the blog is slow.
Quoting scottiesaunt:
Since the blog is quiet tonight, I guess I'll say hi to everyone. 12th generation Floridian, so I've been through a few. Just made my 1st post to the main blog, but have been lurking since 05. So many here have been so helpful in making me understand. Thanks for all of the knowledge that you all impart.
Hello also! Where in Fl are you if I may ask?
Scotties, same here. As they say on the Jim Rome show... "first time, long time"
Quoting kdav:
Quoting broncosfan:
It takes Juan to know Juan... sorry Family Guy reference
haha i love family guy. pretty bad if we have to quote family guy. thats when u know the blog is slow.
Well say something interesting
About 25 mi west of Ocala
780. kdav
Quoting TampaMishy:
Quoting kdav:

Quoting broncosfan:
It takes Juan to know Juan... sorry Family Guy reference
haha i love family guy. pretty bad if we have to quote family guy. thats when u know the blog is slow.
Well say something interesting
fine what do u wanna talk bout since we r the only two left on i think.
There's a reason why hurricanes usually never come close to places like Jacksonville and Savannah. Usually when hurricanes are moving across the Atlantic far enough north to where they miss the islands, they'll begin to reach the western edge of the Bermuda high, and begin turning to the north. Then if a shortwave trough is moving across the country from the west, it will pick up the hurricane and toss it out to sea (or into the Canadian Maritimes) before it ever reaches the East coast. If the shortwave doesn't come, then it'll find a place along the East coast to make landfall (usually North Carolina because it sticks out so far). Because of this and the way that Savannah and Jacksonville are "pushed in" so far to the west compared to the rest of the coastline, they usually escape all trouble that starts heading towards them. But one day, they will not be so lucky, and the ridge of high pressure will be unusually strong and far to the west, moving the hurricane on a more west to west-northwest course...and without a shortwave trough coming across to weaken the ridge and move it north, it will end up plowing directly into the port city of Jacksonville or historic downtown Savannah. And due to the fact these cities have gone so long without having a hurricane, that will cause the damage to be even worse.
Yeah no kidding kdav... nothing like peter griffin to liven up the blog
Quoting kdav:
Quoting TampaMishy:

Quoting kdav:


Quoting broncosfan:
It takes Juan to know Juan... sorry Family Guy reference
haha i love family guy. pretty bad if we have to quote family guy. thats when u know the blog is slow.
Well say something interesting
fine what do u wanna talk bout since we r the only two left on i think.
anything
Quake... very true. Similiar to the big bend of Florida. Seems why Pensacola have had so many recently.
Hi neighbor I'm in Brandon
787. kdav
well we done talked bout ice cream enuff so idk what else.
This may be a stupid question, but where was Andrew's second landfall and what was the damage like?
quakeman55 I like your information I actually learn something from you on here. Thank you.
790. kdav
Quoting broncosfan:
This may be a stupid question, but where was Andrew's second landfall and what was the damage like?
landfall west of new orleans to virtually non-populated area. no damage really even though he was still cat 3.
I actually had some tonite ice cream that is
Quoting TampaMishy:
quakeman55 I like your information I actually learn something from you on here. Thank you.

Well thanks and you're welcome...hope I'm not just exercising my fingers here :)
793. kdav
if i have to ask what kind?
Thats right, it was around Lafeyette (cajun country). I was 12 at the time and remember seeing the damage from Andrew on TV.
795. kdav
man i really feel like watching some family guy now.
Quoting kdav:
if i have to ask what kind?
I'm like on a breyers kick lately it is A&W rootbeer flavored
Here's what I remember about Charley...

It was supposed to going to Tampa. Two news stations down here share the same building. The mets do a dual broadcast.

Everything's cool, small Cat 2 headed to Tampa....Uh oh, it's now a Cat 3 and the eye has wobbled (the mets don't want to go against the NHC)...it's not a wobble it's a turn to the N.E. headed towards Sanibel...Oh, by the way it's now a Cat 4.

I'm not boarded up...I'm grabbing plywood, nails, and a hammer from the garage and pillows from the beds to make a safe room in my house.

Fortunately, it headed more NNE once it approached Sanibel.

This all happened in less than four hours. The folks in PGD weren't so lucky.

Everybody down here was complacent because the consensus was "it can't happen here."


Quake, please teach as much as you want. Usually this place is so crazy you cant get a word in edgewise.
Well, your digits probaly are getting a work-out but its good info for me
800. kdav
Quoting broncosfan:
Thats right, it was around Lafeyette (cajun country). I was 12 at the time and remember seeing the damage from Andrew on TV.
yeah it was unbievable as the images that morning came up. people really thought miami was psared. then dade countys damage was just never seen before. almost worst case scenario if miami landafall then nola landfall
I luv sanibel island it got hit hard there
802. kdav
rootbeer flavored ice cream. gotta try it.
kdave... a classic FG quote. "If I'm so fat, why do Stewie and I wear the same size onesy"

LOL
804. kdav
the thing with andrew was though that he only affected dade county nd not downtown miami because his eye was so small. if he was a larger storm damage would have exceede 100 billion nd not 40billion. hard to believe but he could have been alot worse.
Quoting kdav:
rootbeer flavored ice cream. gotta try it.
Breyers
I have a friend that lives in Boca Raton and they had to use their pool to wash in for awhile
Mishy... going through a storm makes you appreciate that A/C more than ever. Hard to imagine what people did before that!
808. kdav
Quoting broncosfan:
kdave... a classic FG quote. "If I'm so fat, why do Stewie and I wear the same size onesy"

LOL
haha. lets throw some family guy quotes out to lighten the blog up.
Quoting broncosfan:
Mishy... going through a storm makes you appreciate that A/C more than ever. Hard to imagine what people did before that!
I worship my A/C I never take it for granted especially down here and Tampa is so muggy and swampy it's hard to imagine people actually go without A/C here
810. kdav
did u hear that meg? guys can marry guys now. i mean this awkward but that means its over for you. might as well pack it in game over.
811. kdav
tampa is nice. been there. need to go see a rays-red sox game this year.
Quoting kdav:
tampa is nice. been there. need to go see a rays-red sox game this year.
I didn't say where I live wasn't nice
LOL

GIGGITY
Goodnight all, long day tomorrow.
815. kdav
peter to brian " brian omg theres a message in my alphabits. it says ooooo." brian "those r cheerios."
I took my daughter to the Ding Darling Refuge on Sanibel when it reopened. It was about two months after the storm.

They were still burning the trees that had been knocked down.
Quoting scottiesaunt:
Goodnight all, long day tomorrow.
Nite
818. kdav
Quoting TampaMishy:
Quoting kdav:
tampa is nice. been there. need to go see a rays-red sox game this year.
I didn't say where I live wasn't nice
woaa being a little defensive. cmon. its all good.
Brian, my cereal is trying to tell me something.... ooooooooooooooooooooooooo

peter, those are cheerios
It did take awhile to clean it up in Sanibel...
kdav... i think we posted the cheerios joke at the same time.. LOL
822. kdav
dude i said the same quote. thats whheird. cmon theres no h in that.
I think now its just us mishy and kdav
Quoting broncosfan:
Brian, my cereal is trying to tell me something.... ooooooooooooooooooooooooo

peter, those are cheerios
Lovely quoting a mans neanderthal sitcom...nice
825. kdav
threes company
sorry mishy... what would you like to talk about?
Ahhh battle of the species I'll win!
828. kdav
Quoting TampaMishy:
Quoting broncosfan:
Brian, my cereal is trying to tell me something.... ooooooooooooooooooooooooo

peter, those are cheerios
Lovely quoting a mans neanderthal sitcom...nice
how can u call it a neantherdal sitcom . best show on besides raw(wrestling) in abrams ndbettes(jking no one watches that)
Quoting TampaMishy:
It did take awhile to clean it up in Sanibel...


South Seas on Captiva is still not 100%.

Enjoy the ice cream, but beware the cone...

830. kdav
yeah mishy u deicde what shall we talk bout.
Oh, I dont know... Abrams and Bettis is pretty good. It would be top notch if they took out the Bettis part though.
Quoting 4rtMyersGuy:
Quoting TampaMishy:
It did take awhile to clean it up in Sanibel...


South Seas on Captiva is still not 100%.

Enjoy the ice cream, but beware the cone...

LOL
I think Abrams got engaged... I saw a ring on her finger. Much to the dismay of all TWC viewers.
iam out tropics are asleep so am i
later all
watches what Kdav?
836. kdav
yeah i could watch stephanie abrams for one hour. does she still go out in the field r not. i havent seen her covering a cane in awhile.
837. kdav
u mean abrams is engaged. to who. nooooooo. dang i knew i should have called her back.
838. kdav
i love king of queens too but they r done.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam out tropics are asleep so am i latter all
Nite Keeper
I think if something major comes this way, she will. She is definitely hot.
841. kdav
nite nite keeper dont let the bed bugs bite
Goodnite boys
843. kdav
nite mishy u gonna be on tmorow
Seems I picked the quietest time to stop being a lurker and join heh..
night mishy
Quoting kdav:
nite mishy u gonna be on tmorow
I dunno why?
kdav.. check this out

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/accent/photo/Stephanie_Abrams3.html
Goodnite Bronco
849. kdav
just wondering if i should bother getting on. lets hope tropics pick so we can get some action in this blog
Quoting kdav:
just wondering if i should bother getting on. lets hope tropics pick so we can get some action in this blog
Go back to your neanderthal blogging! LOL
Could talk about the daily rain/thunderstorms we have been getting in Clearwater.. Sheesh
852. kdav
c ya mishy. go eat some ice cream
853. kdav
bronco it just took me to a page without abrams on it
851,dry as a bone down here in srq the last 2 days!!!,just goes to show you florida weather is unique to say the least....
uumm.. sorry about that... try this one.

its got a few on there

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/accent/epaper/2006/09/02/a1d_stephanie_abrams_0902_nn.ht ml
Stir... got hammered here in NOLA with that big high pressure over TX. Brought loads of rain here. Bad where you are?
When they say there is a 30% chance of rain in Florida.. They mean 30% of Florida will get rain at some point in the day :)
858. kdav
nothing either
dont know why that isnt working. its an article about her from the Palm Beach Post. Some good pics of her on there.
860. kdav
well thnx anyways but im gonna bounce. c yall later.
new to blog lurking since 2004 not happy that everyone has forgoten Port Charlotte and Punta Groda as regards to Charlie we were on our own after other hurricanes hit the state. We took care of out selfs neighors helping each other everyone should learn from this
im out too.. nite everyone
Fung Wong looks to be rapidly intensifying. It could be bad news for Taiwan and China. This thing has a shot at at least 120 mph winds.
864.

97L has poofed it seems...also I just ran the model loops and I don't see the UK, GFS, or NGPS developing 97L right now.
The HWRF and GFDL have also dropped the system...so it looks like the tropics are quiet for a change. Once we get into August things should start to heat up.
morning
the MDR looks rather quiet this morning, but i am keeping an eye at an area 11N 35W which is associated with a tropical wave. this a large wave which spans 10 deg of longitude. there is strong vorticity in the area as well as convergence. vertical wind shear is 5-10 knots and SST is about 30 deg C
Notice how north of the main convection, there's more clouds? Well, the NHC excpects it to split, giving 97L a higher chance of development. Top that.
NHC shows 97L's sfc low at 1014mb on their sfc map and dissipating.
Quoting stoormfury:
morning
the MDR looks rather quiet this morning, but i am keeping an eye at an area 11N 35W which is associated with a tropical wave. this a large wave which spans 10 deg of longitude. there is strong vorticity in the area as well as convergence. vertical wind shear is 5-10 knots and SST is about 30 deg C


Looks like whatever thunderstorm activity that is there is to the west of the wave axis, which is at 30W. Anyhow, the wind shear in the lower part of the CATL east of the Antilles is pretty favorable right now...worth watching.
864,
Jeff Masters is on vacation, he wrote that yesterday not today and the models were developing it then.
Ike,
Whats going on with the GFS model? Any new developments? Are you on vacation?
Yawn....quiet tropics for a while so back to dealing with all the tstms in the conus. If any of you plan on flying in the eastern half of the US here are some tips: 1)fly in the morning before weather builds, 2)try to avoid NYC and 3)fly in the morning.
agree with 237 western atl is getting alittle more favorable. popcorn showers popping up
Kory taiwan can handle it. My buddy is from there built like a fortress he told me.
Morning all.
After 20mm of rain with strong squalls yesterday, a glorious morning here. Some showers later.
Nothing in the Atl., to be concerned about today. Still a swarm of dry air in control of things there.
It still appears that the muddles are not taking the dry air into account with their predictions as yet.
Stephanie Abrams Link

Looks like Taiwan is going to get hit hard today/tonight from Typhoon Fung-Wong. Has a nice Eye building. They better hope the steep coastline and mountains in its path can help disspures it Cheers AussieStorm

P.S. Anyone want to do a house swap here. Currently here at my place in Sydney Australia it's 48.6F (9.2C) and is ment to drop down to 39F (4C). I hate winter.
Hello Aussie ! The swap sounds good. If I leave here now, I could probably get there in a week or two. You are a long way from the West Indies man ! It will be 33 c. here later.
heheheh
Quoting pottery:
Hello Aussie ! The swap sounds good. If I leave here now, I could probably get there in a week or two. You are a long way from the West Indies man ! It will be 33 c. here later.
heheheh


Yeah thanks for telling me that. Had a nice winter thunderstorm today. some parts of Sydney got "soft" hail. All I got was a 5min downpour.
Here's a nice pick of the storm that rolled in this afternoon. Cheers AussieStorm

Looking north from Sydney CBD.

Courtesy of The Sydney Morning Herald
Nice. Great photo.
Quoting MasterForecaster:
Quoting kdav:
well thnx anyways but im gonna bounce. c yall later.


Boston is the asshole of the earth!


Our 1 time Prime Minister, Paul Keating once called Australia "the asshole end of the world" Fancy that coming from the man in charge of "running" Australia
Nice photo AussieStorm. I just want to mention that area of storms has developed off the stalled frontal boundary that moved off the North Carolina and SOuth Carolina coasts from Friday's heavy rain maker. This area needs to be watched again for any cyclone development as Christobal formed from this area.
Your Prime Minister said that ??
Wow.
But then, he ought to know..........

Sorry, could not resist ! LOL
went offshore fishing yesterday 30miles east of pt canaveral florida you wouldnot believe the rips and current swirls we saw. the water in the ocean is constantly moving around. oh yeah we are eating fresh red snapper tonight
OK . Having trashed the Aussies ( its a cricket thing ! ), I have to go and get things done here.
Later.
Quoting pottery:
OK . Having trashed the Aussies ( its a cricket thing ! ), I have to go and get things done here.
Later.


Hold up.Didn't we beat you in both the test series and the ODI's? Pretty convincingly too.
maybe I shouldn't tell you this but today it is int he 70s here and bright and sunny, low humidity, and light winds
This is from another Tropical Wx website:

Eastern Atlantic and African satellite imagery continues to show widespread shower and thunderstorm activity over western Africa. All of the global models forecast that one particular disturbance will roll off of Africa into the far eastern Atlantic on Tuesday or Wednesday. Models like the Canadian, GFS and UKMET models forecast that a low pressure system will form from this disturbance late this week into next weekend over the central and eastern Atlantic. This disturbance will be monitored closely once it tracks into the far eastern Atlantic, especially if it starts to organize and develop.


Gah!!!!
thats scary.... the Dvorak stuff say a cat 3 cane

893. OSMS
Quoting leftovers:
went offshore fishing yesterday 30miles east of pt canaveral florida you wouldnot believe the rips and current swirls we saw. the water in the ocean is constantly moving around. oh yeah we are eating fresh red snapper tonight
894. OSMS
Water moves in the ocean?

Learn something new everyday!
wow typhoon fungwong is scary..

look at this 120 MPH WINDS ARE DEADLY

Thank goodness someone on here is concerned about somewhere other than the North Atlantic (even if he is an Aussie! - great photo from the SMH, by the way). I'm not belittling what may happen in North or Central America, but, as I've posted before, Asia routinely suffers far worse by way of damage and death when typhoons and cyclones hit, a lot of it because they don't have the resources available in wealthier parts of the world.

Taiwan is about to be hit smack in the middle by its fifth (sixth? seventh?) typhoon in the last year - I'm just glad I live in a country which has only been hit twice in 50 years!
P.S. Anyone want to do a house swap here. Currently here at my place in Sydney Australia it's 48.6F (9.2C) and is meant to drop down to 39F (4C). I hate winter.


That is winter? You can't even freeze water at 39F. Snow doesn't become bearable till 10F. 48F is a nice cool night here, a chance to cool off the house for the next day.
I checked and the UKMET and GFS, along with the CMC forecast a tropical wave to emerge off the coast of Africa in about 48-72 hours or so with some development. Conditions there are unfavorable right now with high wind shear but we will see if that changes.
Quoting SouthPacific:
Thank goodness someone on here is concerned about somewhere other than the North Atlantic (even if he is an Aussie! - great photo from the SMH, by the way). I'm not belittling what may happen in North or Central America, but, as I've posted before, Asia routinely suffers far worse by way of damage and death when typhoons and cyclones hit, a lot of it because they don't have the resources available in wealthier parts of the world.

Taiwan is about to be hit smack in the middle by its fifth (sixth? seventh?) typhoon in the last year - I'm just glad I live in a country which has only been hit twice in 50 years!

where in the SP are you?
I have experienced 2 typhoons while holidaying in the Philippines with family. In "02 it just brushed us where we were staying. Last year 1 came quiet close and after 10mins of rain i have never seen before the street was like a river rapid. Lucky we had a high curb + sand bags, and the foot of water didn't get in and flood our house, but others weren't so lucky. Will never forget it. In "03 felt my first earthquake there. was a 4.6 magnitude. But still scary for someone that's never felt one before. Cheers AussieStorm
GOM IR Loop Link

GOES WV Loop of Tropical Basin Link
GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery Link

These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.

Follow the image links for alternate channel views of the same area.
Quoting kellnerp:
P.S. Anyone want to do a house swap here. Currently here at my place in Sydney Australia it's 48.6F (9.2C) and is meant to drop down to 39F (4C). I hate winter.


That is winter? You can't even freeze water at 39F. Snow doesn't become bearable till 10F. 48F is a nice cool night here, a chance to cool off the house for the next day.


I am just glad I don't live where my parents are. 100miles from where it snows. Ment to be 25F tonight and is currently 35f.... to me that's way to cold. And I have scottish blood.
Quoting Patrap:
GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery Link

These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.

Follow the image links for alternate channel views of the same area.


Nice link Pat...I bookmarked it for future use since it has some nice imagery. Looks like something is emerging off the African coast now.
If the Tuesday night African wave doesn't come off too far north like 97L did then it should develop. Wind shear is not unfavorable it is marginally favorable but not favorable either. The dry sinking air could be a factor though.


So july is gone...we have had a Cat 3 and a Cat 2. Not two CAT 4's slamming across the caribbean like my favorite year 2005 but still, above normal.
Northtx...any wave that emerges off the African coast at the optimum latitude of 10N...it would be blasted with 30 knots of easterly wind shear. I'm not saying this won't decrease but right now that wave emerging now won't be able to develop right now. Tuesday into Wednesday could be a different story.




UMMMM you are right about it being unfavorable RIGHT NOW...but the shear is supposed to be FAVORABLE by "Tue JUL 29 2008"...less than 24 hours before the African wave predicted to develop rolls off.
906.

Well there you go. I never said it wouldn't be favorable I just said right now it isn't.
Number one, westerly wind shear is worse than easterly shear.

Number two, Notice that yellow pocket of unfavorable wind shear in the CATL on my map that keeps moving westward well west of my Tuesday wave, paving the way for favorable conditions.
906. Yep, I saw that. Shear looks good across the whole basin and is already on the decrease. Noting that, shear is going to look good in the Gulf as well, something could pop up there.
Waves always look better before they exit Africa,..

Sustaining after exiting is what is needed for a Wave to develop.

Thats a Hard gig when the environment isnt conducive.

I never give any wave credence until it can sustain itself off into the Eastern Atlantic.

WAVETRAK - Tropical Wave Tracking Link
908.

Easterly shear can be just as bad. Here is a pic of Dean as a tropical depression struggling with persistent easterly shear:



Quoting Patrap:
Waves always look better before they exit Africa,..

Sustaining after exiting is what is needed for a Wave to develop.

Thats a Hard gig when the environment isnt conducive.

I never give any wave credence until it can sustain itself off into the Eastern Atlantic.

WAVETRAK - Tropical Wave Tracking Link


Exactly. Couldn't have said it better myself.
Red = Very Favorable
Light Orange/Dark Yellow = Marginally Favorable
Yellow/Light Yellow = Unfavorable, but not too hostile
Green/Blue = Very hostile, usually representing 27-30 knots or more...most of the blues and deep blues found in the jetstream.
GOES-12 WV Loop with Dry Air Shaded..Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:
906. Yep, I saw that. Shear looks good across the whole basin and is already on the decrease. Noting that, shear is going to look good in the Gulf as well, something could pop up there.


One thing about that shear forecast is that it shows wind shear favorable in the open Atlantic for Ex-97L but the NHC says wind shear won't be favorable for at least the next couple of days. Perhaps the other models aren't so optimistic about shear.
Right now the tropics are quiet because the shear is unfavorable in the Gulf (green and yellow pockets rampant), Caribbean (light yellow) AND East Atlantic (yellow, green and even aqua). The only semi-favorable section is where 97L is, and even now it's in a moderate section of shear (dark yellow).

In a couple days when the shear becomes favorable again the tropics should start to heat up again and this short lull should end. Notice the Gulf and WATL are in the deep red by Tuesday afternoon on my post 906 map. The EATL is mostly favorable as well.
915. That's because a lot of the models have this moving NW, NNW or due north soon into the unfavorable or highly unfavorable shear forecasted in that region before a small pocket of favorable shear.
A main inhibitor of CATL development will be the large area of dry air caused mainly by the downward pulse of the MJO. Favorable MJO should return for the Western Atlantic toward the beginning of August and by the middle to end of August we will have a pretty strong pulse over the Western Atlantic as well as in the far Eastern Atlantic.

Link
ENSO conditions currently remain neutral as we head into toward the peak of the season. I expect that an El Nino, if one develops, would occur late in the year.

Link
I'm out all... getting to cold for me... going back to my warm bed beside my wife.
Take care all.
Cheers AussieStorm
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 JUL 2008 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 22:41:59 N Lon : 122:58:49 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 927.5mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.0 6.0 6.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : -15.3C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


I'm still seeing a weak La Niña right now, looking at all the dry air and below-average shear anticipated. But they should get more neutral as we head into August-September.


Isn't that lovely Extreme? Mojo pops up in Early July, but not a strong upward phase, causing two hurricanes. We might see another named storm or two even with our downward sinking phase. I think the mojo will still remain rather negative for the first week or so of August, we'll have a couple more systems in the Epace as the Mojo gets there, then all hell breaks loose beginning in early-mid August through late September as we get into our strong upward phase washing out the sal and dry air. Shear should remain below normal too and I'm holding on to my 17-19 named storm, 9-11 hurricane, 4-6 major hurricane (including Bertha) prediction. I suspect we'll see some periods in the second half of August into the whole month of September when we see storms, hurricanes and forming invests all over the place...a couple fish storms maybe, but definately some more US landfalls I'm afraid. Perhaps even stronger than Dolly.



Say we get our E-storm from my Tuesday African wave which brings our total to 5/3/1. We get another TS in the first couple weeks of August before the mojo comes bringing it to 6/3/1. I'm thinking 9-10 storms in the second half of August and all of September (certainly plausible) then 2-3 more in October and November combined as El Niño forms. 17-19 storms. Book it.
Is 97L looking better this morning?
no, 97L is looking worse, though it could become another Franklin (05) that stayed a disturbance for a long time and followed a similar track to 97L and then curving out to see just west of Bermuda.
extreme 236
increase vorticity and low level convergence on the increase near 12N 35W
CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU (TAIWAN)

TYPHOON FUNG-WONG (200808)
POSITION 271200Z AT 22.6N 123.0E
MIN SURFACE PRESSURE 948 HPA
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 85 KNOTS
GUSTY WINDS: 105 KNOTS

----
948 hPa conpared to the 956 MB from the JTWC.. it must be near 100-105 knots (1 min)?
I heard 97L is no longer a low but an open wave it probably won't form
Korea Meteorological Administration says Fung-wong is 310 kms south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.
don't know what is wrong with the JMA

Dvorak Intensity as of 0900 UTC was only 4.2 O_o'
Quoting stoormfury:
extreme 236
increase vorticity and low level convergence on the increase near 12N 35W


Yea I see it...the one map I saw shows a bit more upper level divergence than low-level convergence but if we see more of both then it would really be something to watch.
Good Morning All, dropped in to share a link I found in 2006 relative to the extend of damage from each category of storm. Hope to be back on later.

Animated Hurricane Damage
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
don't know what is wrong with the JMA

Dvorak Intensity as of 0900 UTC was only 4.2 O_o'


JMA is being quite conservative with their intensity estimate of 75kts. I know its a 10-min sustained speed but it should be more like 85kts or so. SAB gave out a T5.0 estimate recently...so I know its stronger than 75kts.
It's the complete opposite from Kalmaegi when Taiwan had the lowest sutained winds average and JMA had the highest.
There are quite a few "blobs" in the EPAC right now...there is a wide swath of favorable wind shear so wouldn't surprise me to see something try to spin up.
Good Morning All,

Looks like we are going to have a quiet week. I still am going to watch ANY clusters of T-storms in the GOM. The SST's are very warm and could be the fuel needed to help form a storm.
Warm SSTs continue across much of the area except for the East-central and Northeast parts of the basin. Warm SSTs are spreading farther up the African coast...27C waters even up near 20N off the coast. This could provide us for some teaser waves farther north. You could see the cooler waters left in the wake of Dolly. But look at those SSTs in the NE Gulf...29-30C.

236 i see a nic blob down there all you this have to do is look down where S FL is you all so see some nic baning srarting to set up i this look at wind shear for the blob and its under 5kt i i wonder if that blob has a SFC low with it

man I can't type today, LOL (noticing my spelling errors below)

Anyway here is the Typhoon 2000 website comparison wind gusts between the RSMC/TCWC

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (CMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ South Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
937.

Which blob? I don't see any banding. Banding only forms with well-organized disturbances and tropical cyclones. Nothing well-organized yet.
I do see a blob north of PR...looks like it is near an ULL though...that might have helped to spawn the disturbance. I don't see any sfc low with it.
Well, I see the blog's convection has fired back up... Maybe a cat 1-2 blog before the night's over... LOL.
GENEVIEVE HAS BEEN WITHOUT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SINCE
LATE YESTERDAY AND NO LONGER MEETS THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THEREFORE THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT AND A CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM IS LIKELY IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER COOL WATERS.
That wave near 35W should be watched for when it passes closer to 45W where conditions are more favorable.
i get e mail from Rob Lightbown and there some in i sure you al would want too take a look at this look what he had to say in this AM Tropical Weather Discussion


Another aspect of August is the tendency for a easterly flow aloft and at the surface from western Africa into the southeastern United States. This weather pattern sticks out like a sore thump on the ensemble forecasts, with tropical disturbances on the underside of the ridge of high pressure acting as a kind of warning of impending tropical cyclone possibilities. Given the activity already this hurricane season and the shift of the African high pressure system into the Mediterranean countries, which will reduce the influx of hot, dry and dusty air into any tropical disturbances, the potential for a tropical storm or hurricane impact could rise dramatically along the US Gulf Coast and the US East Coast during the month of August.


I guess that would be along Georgia/Florida low, Taz?
940. extreme236 7:50 AM PDT on July 27, 2008
I do see a blob north of PR...looks like it is near an ULL though...that might have helped to spawn the disturbance. I don't see any sfc low with it


its the one north of PR
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
I guess that would be along Georgia/Florida low, Taz?


There does appear to be something off the Carolina coastline....I wonder if that is some sort of non-tropical frontal low.
941 LOL -- I was looking at 2 CAT 3's before the day is over
oh here the map that gos with what i was talking about


The Area off Appalachia Bay has some Potential as the trough hangs along the Coast the next few days.A Small Low Pressure Area,1013 has formed an is expected to drift w,to wsw the Next 48 Hours.

Zoom Sat Look Link
ok here the link


you may want to look at this


Link
GOM IR Loop Link
I read the Crownwx discussion this morning...they had a very good discussion this morning about what we could see over the next week.
I noticed wind shear in the vicinity of the Carolina low is quite high...but there does appear to be some decreasing wind shear right over the system.
StormW, what do u think about 97L now?
Quoting cg2916:
StormW, what do u think about 97L now?


Well I guess it's once again Ex-97L now.
Another aspect of August is the tendency for a
236 did you all so see this part????


easterly flow aloft and at the surface from western Africa into the southeastern United States. This weather pattern sticks out like a sore thump on the ensemble forecasts, with tropical disturbances on the underside of the ridge of high pressure acting as a kind of warning of impending tropical cyclone possibilities. Given the activity already this hurricane season and the shift of the African high pressure system into the Mediterranean countries, which will reduce the influx of hot, dry and dusty air into any tropical disturbances, the potential for a tropical storm or hurricane impact could rise dramatically along the US Gulf Coast and the US East Coast during the month of August
Quoting JFV:
Good Sunday morning everybody! I'm very sorry for not being able to log on at all yesterday gang, I wasn't able to to so, because I spent the entire day with my fiance inside of the hospital, because she caught a stomach virus. So, what have I missed out on lately, it appears that the tropics are quite inactive this morning for the most part, for how much longer do you guys forsee this continuing for?


Well we had 97L return from the grave...things were starting to look good for it again with gradually more favorable conditions and warm SSTs but the wind shear is relentless and is tearing it apart and the NHC has stopped their model runs on it. I'm just watching a weak low pressure off the Carolina coast and a blob north of PR. The only real player in the world is Typhoon Fung-Wong. The current lull in activity could last for a little while. The MJO will be favorable across the Atlantic by mid-August and we should see some pretty good activity by then.
958.

I saw it...its something to keep an eye on.
Imagery by ESL Link

The ESL's unique location and capabilities allows it to observe the earth in a variety of ways with surveillance of the Gulf of Mexico being our primary activity. We are equipped for numerous atmospheric views, investigation of ocean applications, and we produce True Color images from a few spacecraft.
looks like the gfs is on to some in this AM

Education & Outreach

One of the goals of the Earth Scan Lab is to provide educational resources useful to a diverse audience, with respect to ocean and coastal observation, emergency response, hurricanes and satellite technologies. We hope this website will grow to provide such educational resources. For example, our definition links (always in italics ) provide very short explanations of terms and acronyms used on the website.

The lab maintains an active role in community educational outreach, participating actively in the annual Ocean Commotion event (hosted by the Louisiana Sea Grant College Program) as well as providing numerous tours for visiting dignitaries, political leaders, and visiting K-12 student groups.

Some pictures from the last Ocean Commotion event.

Courses most closely tied to the Earth Scan Lab facility are offered through the Department of Oceanography & Coastal Sciences. The LSU Hurricane Center offers a program in Disaster Science and Management, with various degree program options. Link
958 Thats what they said last year
Taz that is what the UKMET and CMC are showing also. It appears a vigorous tropical wave is supposed to emerge off the coast on Tuesday or Wednesday.
A Blind Duck in Bangkok can forecast that Tropical activity Picks up in Aug,and that the threats usually favor the East or GOM Coasts.

Thats climatology,not a forecast.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
958 Thats what they said last year


Well in the last decade I don't think we have ever gone 3 years without a major hurricane striking the US. There is a strong chance it will happen this year.
969. IKE
Haven't checked in in awhile....97L appears RIP.
236 and that most be are naxt came in town then with are Carolina low any ch 236 that are Carolina low would be come 98L???
you no sooner or later we could see 4 name storms out there all out one time like in 1995


you think 236 that AUG could be the mothe for it???
Quoting Tazmanian:
you no sooner or later we could see 4 name storms out there all out one time like in 1995


you think 236 that AUG could be the mothe for it???


Maybe, I don't know
Quoting IKE:
Haven't checked in in awhile....97L appears RIP.


Yea it appears RIP...again lol...it was looking more promising yesterday with conditions that appeared to be improving but that reversed quickly.
a look at are
Carolina low
975. IKE
Quoting extreme236:
Quoting IKE:
Haven't checked in in awhile....97L appears RIP.


Yea it appears RIP...again lol...it was looking more promising yesterday with conditions that appeared to be improving but that reversed quickly.


I think it's probably history...appears headed NW to NNW...out into the north Atlantic graveyard.
Are we expecting that carolina low to become 98L?
977. IKE
Speaking of rain...I had at least 2 inches of rain yesterday afternoon...maybe close to 3...between 4-7 pm....it poured at my house. The lake I live on has come up about 2 1/2 inches in the last week.
local swfl met Talking about a possible gom low developing...said that a broad lowering of pressure is likely, but doesn't think anything will form..I on the other hand believe something may start to form in the next 36 hrs..
Floater 3 is on the Carolina low.

Link
Well it looks like one large trof off the east coast and in the northern GOM...that appears to have spawned the Carolina low and perhaps a future low in the NE Gulf.
y'all mean South Carolina low....right?!?!
981..LOL ..yes we mean SOUTH carolina low!!!LOL..
Quoting presslord:
y'all mean South Carolina low....right?!?!


LOL I referred to it as Carolina because I can't tell which coast its off of...it looks like its off the coast of the border.
OK then ...Calabash Low...which is something only about 3 people will get... :)
Henry from Accuweather seems to think Dolly could get back into the GOM.Link
Wow, even with nothing going on --everything is going on. You guys have been working this morning!! Taz -- you are like an every ready battery -- not missing any potentials out there!!!
your post937 showing the "soup" by south FL is a good observation, hmmmmm; Thanks for posting Rob Lightbrown's review - sounds like he is on to something and it doesn't make me feel good (even though I want the waves)

Patrap thanks for this morning's present! The EarthScanLaboratory is a wonderful one for me to wander around in for days and will be very helpful for my 15yr old's school projects... a terrific source -- wondered if the oil spill in the Mississippi will show up??
so it looks the the SDD site is now calling it a INVEST for are carolina low????
LOL! I get it, press.
Quoting Tazmanian:
so it looks the the SDD site is now calling it a INVEST for are carolina low????


Not quite. The reason the floater is set there is because early this morning the SSD site ran a test and placed the test floater there. They also ran a test dvorak estimate. Both are now gone from the site.
991. IKE
Quoting CATfour:
Henry from Accuweather seems to think Dolly could get back into the GOM.Link


OMG...that would be incredible!
Well I'm still watching a blob NNE of PR...an ULL is to the NE which might have spawned this disturbance...I've seen ULL's spawn disturbances before.

Link
I wouldn't be surprised if a sfc low formed in association with that convection south of LA/MS in the Northern Gulf.
994. IKE
Quoting extreme236:
I wouldn't be surprised if a sfc low formed in association with that convection south of LA/MS in the Northern Gulf.


That's part of what came through here yesterday afternoon....terrific rainfall amounts....
995. Vero1
Dr Masters updated his blog
area of interest n cen gom offshore of la/miss/al 098
based upon vis/ir image 1710 gmt or
110edt from gom