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Tropics beginning to heat up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:20 PM GMT on August 21, 2005

The tropics are beginning to heat up again, and the current period of calm will likely be short-lived. There are three areas of possible tropical development worth mentioning today, and we will also discuss the possibility of extremely active conditions developing 7-10 days from now.

Yucatan and southern Gulf of Mexico
A strong tropical wave crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula has an impressive and increasing amount of deep convection, and already appears to be gaining some rotation. Once the center of this circulation moves out over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, chances are good that a tropical depression will form. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate tomorrow afternoon, if neccessary. If a depression does form, it will move west-northwest and probably make landfall in Mexico, under the steering flow of a strong upper-level high located over the southern Gulf states. This quasi-stationary high has been in place for a number of days, and is not forecast to move much the next few days. This high will act to protect the Gulf Coast of the U.S. both by steering potential tropical storms westward towards Mexico, and by using its strong shearing winds to tear apart any systems that venture too close to the Gulf Coast.

Cape Verdes Islands tropical wave
The vigorous tropical wave that pushed off the coast of Africa Friday night is now just southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. The wave has a large circulation centered at 13N, and some strong deep convection to the south over the ITCZ with surface winds of 15-20 knots. Waters are warm, shear is light, and some computer models predict this wave will develop into a tropical storm. The GFS model predicts that a tropical storm will form from this wave on Wednesday and recurve in the center of the Atlantic Ocean towards the Azores Islands by early next week.

Remains of TD 10
The remains of TD 10 are just north of Hispanolia, and kicking up some moderate convection there. No circulation is apparent on satellite imagery, and surface pressures are not falling in the region. Although shear values are currently low, the remains of the depression are tracking due west towards Cuba and towards the shearing winds of the strong upper-level high over the southern Gulf states. This system will bring strong winds and heacy rain to the Bahamas and Cuba, but for now appears unlikely to develop into a tropical storm.

Forecast for 7-10 days from now
The GFS has been consistently predicting a very active period of hurricane development beginning late this week and running through the the end of the 16-day forecast period of the model. In my previous blog entry from Friday, I posted the GFS forecast for August 31, showing its prediction of three simultaneous tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. One and a half days later, the GFS is still predicting three tropical cyclones for August 31--although the northernmost one wasn't predicted last Friday, and is in fact the storm that is predicted to form from the current tropical wave just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.


It bears repeating that computer forecasts of specific tropical storms developing are VERY unreliable--particularly out seven days and more from now. The GFS is likely to be dead wrong about the specific timing of the tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa, which waves might develop into hurricanes, and where in the ocean they may develop. What is believable is the GFS's forecast of a fundamental shift in the general atmospheric circulation leading to an enhanced period of hurricane activity starting later this week.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hiya :)
Thanks for all your information. Do you think that the remnants of Td-10 will strengthen enough to affect the Northern Bahamas (eg. Nassau) ? Also, I have noticed an area of intense flare-ups north of us (near SC coast). Is there any info on that, as it appears to be dumping a lot of rain on us in the upcoming days. Thanks.
I added:
"This system will bring strong winds and heacy rain to the Bahamas and Cuba, but for now appears unlikely to develop into a tropical storm."

The blow-up off the coast of South Carolina is occurring in a low-shear area near the center of the upper-level high pressure system over the southern Gulf states. The area bears watching, but is currently too small to be concerned with.

Jeff Masters
dr jeff no disrespect but gfs turns everything north if this wave does not organize significantly remember camille stayed strong wave until nw carrib plus when will sheer lessen over gulf.
dr masters

will you explain eye wall formation thank you
tx that first link was from the world encyclopedia and it says coolest temps at surface and warmest in upper levvels for the eye
Link

this is tghe link that syas that all tropical cyclones have an eye though not visible does not mean its not their and eyes have eye walls, while not intense it does the same job. its the piston of the engine in the storm
Lefty, I am in Charleston and if one should come this way I may be able to work with you on a place to stay. Good secure brick home off the ground and not too many trees. Keep it in mind if nature warrents. Did not know if you got this from last post Tx.
What is this that Jeff is talking about off the SC coast?
yeah i did stormjumkie and would be glad to do it too, waould bring the beer ;-)
Lefty, you have an Xbox? What is your tag?
Dr. Jeff THANK YOU !

Think you might have settled alot. HOPEFULLY
to Saint WRITTEN BY Lenny(lefty)

no, all storms from a depression to a hurrican form an eye wall. the stringer the storm the more verticle it will be hence the evolution of an eye. when looking at a forming storm you look for the formation of an eye wall while in most weak storms like a depression it may not be closed you will finally get one when it reaches ts strength. easiest way to look at is all cyclones have the same mechanics. just the stronger and more concentrated it is u change the name from a depression to a ts to a hurricane. now the evolution of an eye wall feture as i see in the link shows that the storm has good outflow and is organising.

.
.Lefty.....with this statement you lose any credibility that you have as a forecaster. I think even the bimbos on the weather channel know that an eye is a feature of a strong tropical cyclone only, namely a hurricane. I think that you and stormtop are possibly the same obsessed person. It's like the right and left hand. Please leave this blog alone and let us discuss the tropics. We'll muddle through without your insight.
and to everyone from the last thread. all cyclones no matter strenght have an "eye" or center. the area of convection around that center is the so called eye wall, while weak anot closed or circular in weaker storms like a depression it is there. that wall or convection is what draws in the warm most air and send it out in the uotflow, that air than sinks outside the storm and rotates back in to be sucked up again. u need to convection in the 'wall"to have a warm core storm or cyclone. now eyes in weak storms are not evedint due to the cdo but it is there and while not visible in the microwave imagery
lefty that is incorrect. The sinking air in the eye makes it warmer as you near the surface. Relative to the rest of the storm it is warmer in the eye its not cooler at the surface.
Now not all that sinking air gets to the groubnd, but thats a more complicated discussion than I can have here.
Now from the AMS glossory

#
eyeIn meteorology, usually the eye of the storm (hurricane, typhoon), that is, the roughly circular area of comparatively light winds found at the center of a severe tropical cyclone and surrounded by the eyewall.
The winds increase gradually outward from the center but can remain very light up to the inner edge of the eyewall. No rain occurs and in intense tropical cyclones the eye is clear with blue sky overhead. Most, but not all, tropical cyclones with maximum winds in excess of 40 m s-1(78 knots) have eyes visible on satellite imagery. Eye diameters vary from 10 to more than 100 km.

Now eyewall
eyewallA ring of cumulonimbus that encircles the eye of a tropical cyclone.
In radar depictions, the clouds must occupy at least 180 of arc to be called an eyewall.

Now the definition says eye is a feature of severe tropical cyclones, ie no eye, no eyewall.
These are the formal definitons from American Meterological Society.

I think your error is that you are equating the calm center of a TS/TD with an eye. They are not the same.
stormjunkie it is LEFLY420 i messed upso its LEFLY420 lol

and tx whats ur source give me a link. my link was from the encylocpedia lol
lefty i respect your talent but i think you spend to much time on models and satellites plus ignore gfs it turns everything north i wish you try joe bastardi he is eeerily accurate i have
learned much from him. past he concludes is big factor in his
forecasting. plus the typhoons in the pac thier direction of movement is key to atlantic movement and also the track of winter storms he offers info and direction instead of reading right off nhc page or treating gfs like jesus. just a thought and keep up good work. like your opinion tex.
I guess Dr. Jeff didn't put a stop to some of this
BAck to my point, I think that you guys are bickering over wether a LLC is an eye or not. I think both sides of this discussion are based on minor differences in interpertation.
outrocket are you here????
ok i don;t rely on models and u have to rely on sat images if it be microwave data visible or ir. the models only tell us a possible formation right now and based on the organasation i can say i feel confident a deppression will form. i will check him out as i love to find new info. if u have a link saint i would love it
Freind request sent!
no he apperantly does not know the mechanics of a cyclone. they have the same mechanic whjile not as organised as a stronger storm when they are weak when they are very strong. i've watched microwave data for some time now and have seen the eye feature form and the eye wall wrap its self up. the reason we do not see a "eye" in weeker styorms on ir or vissible is beacuse of the cdo.
cool storm jumkie i will accept it when i get on right now i am doing to much and trying to talk to yall,find info on eye walls and also look at new data on the wave
What I would find crazy is if we end up getting 3 or for hurricanes in the atlantic at the same time,that would crazy but would not be immpossible.
raysfan

stop wishing for rain... those of us up in the midwest need the rain much more then fl the ohio river was just reopened for barge traffic last week.. closed for over two weeks due to low water
yeah that would be cool and totally not impossible jed
You are correct.
afternoon Jed glad someone is on here to talk to
Thanks for the info Dr. Masters :) I'm just hoping for a quiet season in The Bahamas and a safe one for everyone this year :)
Florida doesn't really need the rain I just like to some extra flooding and thunderstorms here lol,but just because you need rain does not make it wrong that we want rain here it don't make any since but anyway yes I will pray the pattern will change and y'all will start getting soaked.
this is a link to the tutorial on microwave data. it shows storms developing and has coolimages of some famous storms. check it out. its from the navy nd it states all storms have a eye feture and forming or formed eye wall

Link
http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary/search?id=tropical-cyclone1
From the AMS.

This is my last statement on this. It just that a eyewall implies a ring of very intense convection surronding a well defined center. Not thunderstorms in curved bands around a poorly defined LLC. By saying you have an eyewall you imply to peple that you have a real strong system and to me thats wrong. Facts are facts im Meterology, if you don't like them campaign for a change in Terminology, but you shouldn't misuse terms. The difference between a circulation center are in structure and are not just words. But this is all for me, belive what you want.
sorry but the high temp is killing us here. White you left iwth the torches needed then earlier
What about the flare up of convection off the coast of SC? Could it be another Gaston situation?
lefty what can you tell me about the Bermuda High for this year.
Now gaston was fun. Not too much damage and I sat outide and was able to watch the whole thing.
ok that link didn't work guys sorry you will have to go to this link and cloick the green comet button

Link

your link says nothing on eye walls or eyes. this link i provided has a text ormovie option. its really cool and interesting. watch it than talk to me
No storm cannot turn north into a a ridge esspecially one as large and as strong as the bermuda high ius right now,there has been a pattern change I have observed,the second half of july into the begining of august had a pattern where the ridge in the atlantic was weaker and the troughs were unusually strong.Now the pattern has changed and now we have a much stronger ridge and weaker troughs,and even if we had stronger troughs like we had earlier on,it still wont penitrate this strong ridge.It seems to be here to stay for a while which would tend to steer storms toward florida or the caribean up into the gulf.
i think the bermuda high is going to continue to be strong and steer storms to the west but where its axis is will determine if storms recurve which most probly will unless they make it to the gulf
Anyone have an idea where the area off SC would go?
So gfs turning these storms north really is quite a bit off lol.
No not with that big ridge,it also is large a storm cant recurve into a big ridge lol.
That is nothing but some energy aloft like a shortwave,that likey is nothing to worry about at the moment.
tx u should just clikc my link and watch the tutorial and yes the term eye wall my confuse people which is why we are disscussing it but in a developing storm you have a developing eye wall feture while not strong nor well defined it is there. when it deepens and wraps around the center you get a ts but not always. thats what i take from my knowledge and fromt he tutorial. if u want to see what i am saying please click the link as your feed back would be wonderfull.
So Jed you are saying that the GA,SC,NC coast is safe for the time being due to the strong ridge? Or could storms still turn N in the Carib?
A tropical storm is an organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds between 17 and 33 meters per second (3463 knots, 3973 mph, or 62117 km/h). At this point, the distinctive cyclonic shape starts to develop, though an eye is usually not present. Government weather services assign first names to systems that reach this intensity (thus the term named storm).

At hurricane intensity, a tropical cyclone tends to develop an eye, an area of relative calm (and lowest atmospheric pressure) at the center of the circulation. The eye is often visible in satellite images as a small, circular, cloud-free spot. Surrounding the eye is the eyewall, an area about 10 to 50 miles (16 to 80 kilometers) wide in which the strongest thunderstorms and winds circulate around the storm's center.
.
.
The above is taken from the link provided by Lefty, who apparantly didn't bother reading the whole link.
if the ridge is strong most storms will head wnw to nw as they traverse the ridge unless they are really south and out of the ridge steering currents, now depending on the ridges location will determin when and where she turns north
No if the high shifts like lefty is saying then that is not true,but if it stays put and doean't change for a while then that would only favor atlantic storms to move into the caribbean or florida or maybe the florida straights into the gulf.
i did read it but the term eye refers to the feature seen in visible loops and ir imgs which does not show up till the system reaches a certain strength but it has a llc center and that center has thurderstorms that start towrap around it. that is the formation of an eye wall. seen it tons of times in many storms. usually than it is a ts and around 60mph is when u can start to see a eye on ir loops though not always the case. it also says that in weaker storms the eye is obscurred by the cdo. why did you not post that part of it
so how long will the ridge have to stay stron enough fo rthis thing to keep it moving west. Jed you know I don't like hearing you talk about florida. Also jed is the high usually in the gulf at this time of the year.
Yes the ridge at the moment for example would steer storms from southeast florida southward to the caribbean,on the current pattern,storms will not be able to head any further north then florida,but it can change and that is why there is uncertainty is to what will happen when things start to become active again.
this si what he left out

Eye: A strong tropical cyclone will harbor an area of sinking air at the center of circulation. Weather in the eye is normally calm and free of clouds (however, the sea may be extremely violent). Eyes are home to the coldest temperatures of the storm at the surface, and the warmest temperatures at the upper levels. The eye is normally circular in shape, and may range in size from 8 km to 200 km (5 miles to 125 miles) in diameter. In weaker cyclones, the CDO covers the circulation center, resulting in no visible eye

now i will provide the link as well

Link
Like St. Simmon said yesterday the waters off of the GA SC coast are really high, not as high as the Gulf, but still unusually high. Does this give the are off SC a better chance to develop?
Lefty clickly on the active links in the paragraph and you will see what the official line is. Lefty I went through the text version and it says nothing about eyewalls in weak systems. All eyewall analyzed were from stronger systems.. Anyway I probably know as much as the person doing the tutorial does. I've had classes on interpritation of such images and have in practice interprited. I know about the structure of hurricane(at least as far as we currently understand it), but others don't and I don't want them misled.
Look at this link. It shows the convection off the coast of SC, It doesn't do much after that. Convection always fires up in the heat of the day off the coastline, and then dies after the sun sets. If this convection stays through the night I will start to monitor it. Water temps are high off our coastline and as Dr. Masters wrote, shear is low so It bears monitoring but not as much as the African beast that is about to become a depression.
Lefty that definition is INCORRECT
Well it may stay put it may not strong ridges often stay the same for at least a weak,I believe that isn't the same ridge raysfan in the gulf you are speaking of,eather that or it is an upper ridge which has kept it drier here the past week in terms of rain but that is weakening and will allow rain chances in florida to rise above normal to at least 60%for the second half of next weak and possibly 70% 80% or maybe even highr,hard to say though.The remnants of td 10 will be one of the factors to increase the rain chances here though.
lol well u have ur opinion and i have mine and when i find some concrete evedince i will provide it to you. for all i know i know all cyclones have centers and those centers are the eye. when you have strong convection wrapping around that center you have a wall forming. thats what i am saying, thats what i was taught, that is what i belive and have seen with my own eyes
Lefty, you could end this whole argument if you choose to reffer to what you are talking about as a LLC center. I can see the points to both sides, but it seems easier to just call it a LLC center then to try to change the way most people understand the term "eye"
no its not incorrect. prove it wrong
No the eyewall CAN be that large frances had an eyewall up to 75 or 80 miles across when it made landfall in florida.
i never refered to its an eye always as an llc only recntly did i say anything about an eye and this started cause i said i see the formation of an eye wall and that all cyclones have eye walls. and tx here is a link on the thermodynamics of an eye from the ams. it says what that encyclopedia sated that u said was inccorect

Link
As I explained earlier that temp in the eye AREN"T the coolest at the surface. In fact an eye is hot and humid. Outside it the temp is cooler.
yeah i been watching that too weathee watcherwill see what she does if anything
tx read the link i rpovided that states that due to inversion at the surface they eye is the coldest part of the storm but warmer at the upperlevvels. its from ams so that has to be credible enough for you
Jed will be gld for the rain But White will try and send you some
Which way is the SC blob going? It looks to be moving SW or WSW?
maybe but its hard to tell
The radar says it has rain rates of 6 inches per hour indictive of tropical convetion,you cannot have rain even half that much unless the convetion releasing it has some tropical influence on it.
In fact that link supports me. Yes there is an inversion(do you know what an inversion is) so there is a peak of temp there, but the temp under there is also very warm. This discussion says nothing about the air under thant inversion except that is is moist. This definition is explaining why you have low clouds in the eye often(not always). I'm done.
Jedkins, I think 1995 had 5 Named Storms going at the same time in the Atlantic. It sure can happen again.
lol it explains the temp inversion in a eye feature it sates nothing about eye development or at what stage. i am glad ur done cause i am to. seems like u want to be done when i throw some good bones ur way have a nice day
Sure don't want that towlady. But they did say busy season looks like it is here
I know that it is nothing, but what is steering the SC blob?
Yes it did,but I was talking about HURRICANES at the same time I think 3 or 4 were tropical storms.
guys lets drop the eyewall subject joe"s new post briefly for now laughs at gfs turning system north alredy. so past on his accuracy and tex i think you will agree with this he predicited a sleet/snow for christmas in la/ms/tx coast a month before happened predicted early tropical activity in may was within 100miles of a landfall for cindy dennis and arlene before they were classified. ivan he was only one predicting central gulf aweek off. siad jeanne would recurve be cat 3 when gfs and other experts took out to sea. he bases his forecast on euro models history of past seasons and typhoons and how they track.
i guess thats why i look at dfferent things besides microwaimages and the gfs.
Come on Lefty. A good debate is always fun, but Tx is obviously more knowledgable than StormT. Therefore I think everyone should agree to disagree.
well stormtop is entitled to his opinion. helpful hint for stormtop just we all have to come back and admit when we are wrong. hey raysfan dont forget ride the cadillac.
Jedkins, are you talking about the SC blob with rainfall rates of six inches an hour? If so, show me the link please.
Right, Jedkins, they were, but if this is the season from h*ll, there could be multiple Hurricanes, as you suggest.
We will all be watching, won't we?
thats why i ofgfered links. he discounted the one leak that supported me based on the temp inversion, i find a link supporting the temp inversion and he says it doesn't sya what it say so i said i was done to cause he has not provided anything but a crappy link that didn;t even mention eye formation to his side. so i ma done. to me its true until he proves it not regradless what other people think. i know what i know and while terms got thrown around what i am saying is tru. now the wall feature i noticed in earlier imgs is no lonfer seen in the altests amse image. could be a couple of reasons why but i think it just got recycled as the storm conitnue to organise as the northern low dissipates
all the way Lefty maybe are turning point if they play him.Not much preseason even last night
Blob expanding?
sorry saint
once again if the is like 95 we can have 54 storms and it want have the us impact that 2004 had. we need to see if the carrib and gulf get more active. to much disscussion on storms to close to the jungle. look closer to home if nothing looks promising there we will have to wait to early sept and oct for carrib and gulf threats.pattern is like 95.
everything i say or do in this forum has been criticised regardless of info i give people. why should i even post anymore. i was defending the wave befor anyone even noticed it. why. i am tired of it. and not just that people don't supply info to support their side of points. its all bs. and the losers are the people that come here to learn the newbs. well i will only post what i see and will not reply to people on their missunderstanding on what i say. also to the guy who said i lost my credibilty good for me. you aint offered any info to this blog since i been here and u want to judge me. go to hell
tex have any opinion on comments i made tend to agree with yours.
I don't think anybody could have predidted last years hurricanes. Man even the forecaster were wrong, becaue who would have thought 4 storms to florida.

What are the chances of a set up like charley was?
lefty that was not nice i tried to send you to someone who i
think would interest you also i agree with you the whole time about the wave. just trying to get you to understand history is important in tracks and climatology. i give you the guys track record. please todays the lords day lets try to staycivil sorry if i upset you.
sain wasn't refering to you and ur one of the few guys i will respond to. u also know that i have taken hit after hit from people everyday and i am tired of it. no love at all. if i offended you i ma sorry man. a few of u are good and have open minds about things. you also supply tons of info that is helpfull. some people just blow my mind and its frustrating
Lefty that's why you should be the Big man and just go to something else.

I have listened to what you had to say, and you have been right on since yesterday. I don't have the links tha tyou all have, but after last year I throw everything out the door.
Link

Is it expanding?

I dont' know what this means in terms of direction but there is decent convection. . .

Link

What does everyone think?
thanks man and i am moving on. i just had to get that off my chect
thanks lefty apology warmly accepted if wave or dep is at 50
and still west you will have the last laugh.
Who cares if you take hit Lefty, don't let them get you so upset. If you are right then you are right. Ihope that none of the knowledable people quit posting. I am not a newb to tropical cyclones, but I do not understand them as well as a lot of you and I learn a lot from these debates.

Lefty, it may be time to let go of about 50$ for the 360. Take a deep breath.
looks like it weatherwatcher. we need to just wait and see if it has any circulation and what it does later tonight but def needs to be watched
lol maybe ur right stormjunkie
Just go this off of accuweather from weatherwatchers link

An area of showers and thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean Sea is also being watched for possible further development in coming days. It looks to be moving towards the west-northwest at 15 mph.
Where is the next floater going? SC blob or African wave?
dunnomight be sc blob cause its closer to home
Maybe a circulation. . .

Link

I think we should also watch this during the evening hours. If the convection dies then it is of no concern but. . .
What ever you do Lefty don't be like StormT. Be willing to admit when you are wrong. What a punk. He should come back and admit that he was wrong about the wave.
trust me i will be the first one to admit i was wrong. thats why last nigth i mention the circulation was exposed cause its the truth. thats all i try to speak
Lefty as I said in the other post. Just don't get yourself worked up over it. More helpful info like you have given us the last 2 days is worth more, then trying to get nothing from arguing.

And I thank You.
The clouds seem to be expanding around the blob, but the rainfall seems to be dying down some. The water is really hot out there though.
thanks ray and the love has really made me feel better. in a few mins i am going swimming and will be back on in like an hr. gotta do the fam thing for a min lol
But is there a circulation? I can't really tell. Here is a water vapor loop. . .

Link

Expanding area of moist air. What does it mean?
Does anyone have any info or opinions about the movement of the Blob?
Would rather learn, then dealing with all that. That is why I am here. You see storm has left that is how he is.
Storm looks like it is moving wsw to me? But that me
The blob seems to have a little dry air aroound it from that WV image Watcher007. Where are you - Columbia?
Ok you want more than definitions here they are
http://www.srh.weather.gov/srh/jetstream/tropics/tc_structure.htm

http://www.rambocam.com/archive/whyhow.html

http://www.hpc.unm.edu/research/hpc_tech_reports/2003_001.pdf
This is just good reading for everyone period. Lots of neat stuff.

From research on hurricane Erin
We found that this storm had a very warm eye, from the ocean to the top of the lower atmosphere at around 10 miles altitude, said Halverson. The warmest part of Erins eye was almost 21 degrees (Fahrenheit) warmer than the surrounding air, a dramatic difference from the air around it. Above 7.5 miles high, the eyes temperature dropped quickly to the same temperature as the air outside the eye.

I tried to find more about the surface temp, but couldn't find much else. Next time a storm goes over a bouy that will show the temp change so need to argue. but for the rest as Stormfury said, we'll just agree to disagree.

dunnolooks stationary to me and i can't tell if there is a circulation are not.
Can we please use StormJ and StormT from here on out. I do not want to be confused w/ T.
okay "STORMJ" or how about junkie
TX any info on which way the blob is moving? and why?
That will work Ray! Thanks! LOL
The pressure in Charleston is dropping. This could not be caused by the blob could it? It looks like it is a little too far away to be causing our pressure to drop.
I can't see much movement but There isn't anything hindering development. Earlier this year there was a tropical wave off the coast of SC similar to this one. The wave develpoed fast and the NHC sent a recon plane out to it. They said that it was developing but it moved onshore before it could become anything significant. The point is that there are no inhibiting factors and conditions are favorable. I don't know but we will know soon if this is the real deal or not. Only time will tell.
iam only replying cuase u addedlinks. they all say the eye forms or is visible meaning you can see it. the term eye is used to describe the opening but it is there just not visible till abor 60 or 65 mph as i stated above. thats why people do not know there is a eye if you will already there and visible in microwave data from the depression stage and on. the cdo blocks our veiw of this and it states this in the links u provided. now my terms may have confused you or other people but the eye is just the center and in all cyclones it has a center and a wall of deeper convection. its that wall that drives the engine. i am not stating any of this again
Sainthurricanefan, I agree. Unless the pattern changes or more storms develop in Carribean or Gulf I think most will go out to sea. These kinds of patterns if they last traditionally protect the US from hurricanes.

Lefty don't take it personally we're just talking storms, not attacking each other personally
loldon;t worry bout me
Why will most go out to sea tx?
so for future refrence i will not refer to it as an eye until one is visible onsatimg, cause we allknow hilliary has an eye cause she was a hurricane yet none was visible yesterday, i will refer to it as the cenetr and the eye wall will now be refered to as the wall or band of convection. but what i have stated as fact and this should eliminate any confcusion
Is there any link showing pressures and wind in this blob? If so, I need them please.
its not they will all go out to sea just that if you take storms toward the east cost you have so many factors blocking or pulling it n to ne they usually recurve. but not always. isabelle was one of a few storms that headed to the east coast and all but her recurved
kl everybody going to the pool be back in like an hr
007- I do not think that you can get accurate wind data where cloud cover is, but you should be able to see it around the storm. I am still learning how to read all of the sat images. Maybe some one can give you a link showing wind speed. Pressures I am not sure about, but would like some info on this also.

Where are you 007?
bye have fun I have thunder maybe rain will ahve to check the radar.
Link This contains links for the wave off africa
tx i agree i think this storm has to get to50 w moving west
to be a legit threat.
TX can you tell me what happened last year?
Anybody want to give odds on SC blob.

30% develop
70% die off
There is a lot of lightening in the SC blob. What does this mean?
stormjunkie

the is a ridge approaching from the west--would seem this will push the blob out to sea

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=SurfaceMaps&product=SurfaceAnalysis&prodnav=none

does anyone agree
just to show example how gfs is so north biased took alook at tpc archive on ivan when in early stages no surprise took to north . hitorical tracks can be helpful, if position and patterns are similar.
That is the black line Wabit?
I don't see any ridge from your link whitewabit. Good site though.
That is a trof.
How will the trof effect the blob?
What was with that Idea about euro models earlier?They are the least accurate with tropical activity,europe is not as advanced in technology in terms of weather anyway and are not know for the accuracy with tropical cyclones and I think that the ukmet is THE worst of the main computer models,I do not know why you would trust euro models lol....
sorry used the wrong terminology still learning
l0l youre right about that jedkins btw the best we can do now is wait until it develops
The trough will dissapate as it it begins to run into the huge bermuda high so it likely will have no affect on this blob you are talking about,but understand that it is likely just a blow up of convection and my die down and never do anything but it is still worth watching just in case.
k i am back from the ppo. cooler, wetter but still melol
imean pool lol
Thanks Jed. I know that that the convection will mostly likely die off, but after Gaston last year we all know that nothing can be taken fro granted. The pressure in Charleston continues to drop. I do not think that this means anything but just thought I would mention it in case anyone has any thoughts on this.
k here is a really good link on the african wave. set the speed to real fast. you can now see the circulation to the north is dieing off and there is a visible circulation center in the deep convection on the easter edge around 11-11.5 n check it out tell me what you think

Link
The convection around the blob seems to be dying off. Ten has a lot of convection around it though.
stormjunkie

where are you saying what your calling 10 is
I think STORMTOP might have scored a coup on the dust....it is indeed suffering from the effects of dust and convection is decreasing. It seems that it is full of it (like stormtop said) and this is what's inhibiting convection over the center. It could still develop down the line, but right now it's having a hard time of it.

The next waves in line seem to be farther south and don't have such a broad circulation associated with them, as such I don't think dust will be as much of an issue with these waves...
Lefty I agree with you I went to that link and Storm J. the meteorologist on accuweather.com claim that the area of convection & disturbed weather off the SC coast wouldn't bother anybody cuz it'll be moving offshore.
canefore. I was just thinking the same thing that with all his predictions being wrong Storm T. got it right with his thoughts on the dust.
hte convection is not dieing off, the cloud tops are just warming the the diurinal cooling cycle. in a few hours it will blow up again. there is plenty of convection over the center if u click my links u will see as well as a new blowup just to the east of ther center. its organising more and more of the convection is now confined to the cdo feature near the center. the latest microwave pass show lots of distic banding as well
that link was to the african wave just incase u wanted to know.
and exactly where did allmy predictions go wrong i am wandering
lefty call me crazy but are you stormtop?
to jedkins no disrespect but bastardi uses them i gave you plenty examples of his accuracy. which very little creedance is given to gfs. unless he is getting straight from god they are doing something right. maybe its more on past history and the typhoon track pattern but i respect your opinion seem very knowledgable.
Somewhere around 22 70
sory but i thought u said stormtop got it right reread ur post man its confusing and i appologise
cause the guy u agreed with said its full of dust when it clearly is not specially if u look at all the data from the sat imgs she is getting better organised. cyclones devlop instages and most tak place after the sun goes down, thats diurinal cooling effect. you will see alot more convection blow up tonight, but thats not all i ma looking at. there is now a disting rotation at the surface and in the upperlevels as weall as the dying low to the north was robbing it of energy and in my link it clearly shows the rotation of the low to the north is dying and opening up which will alow for the second low to really develop. thats what i have been saying since yesterday, also as i stated last night it might take longer to develop cause the llc was exposed but has since been tucked under the convection in the cdo feature
does any one have a link showing the dust?
also the latest microwave img shows the center with convection around it but open to the north whcih is what i am saying. the old dying low to the north was preventing the llc to rotate the convection around it. that should not be a problemin the comming hours as that low is just about gone. you can also see new convection blowing up to its nw and ne which will start to wrap around. just be patient and watch
your best bet is vapor loop but according to the nhc the dust is around 40-50-w the center of the llc is around 11-12n 24-25 west. far from that dust and the dust is moving west faster than the wave. the circulation is in a nice area of deep mosture here is a water vapor loop

Link
see i won't state something with out giving you a link. people want to seeall the bright colors in the ir loops when correect me if i am wrong irene never had more than orange until after she became a hurricane and i see orange and red in the ir loop for this wave. stillgood banding, llc covered by convection and great banding on microwave data
Lefty-- i can see teh eye trying to form in that wave!

Can you tell me why storms over water benefit more when the sun is gone? I always thought the heat from the sun helps it develop.
Because it had alot of dry air in it's circulation.Jeanne when it made landfall in florida had a bunch of gray(even more intense than red)around it's huge eye and alot of red maybe that is why it had rain rates of 8 inches per hour lol.
It is more unstable and tubulent at night over water and more turbulent and unstable during the day over land.
Does that answer your question?
Hey I'm new at this, but looking at Jose-2-Be from Africa, it sure looks like a depression to me. Is their something I'm missing as to why the NHC has yet to recognize it as one?
Jed- can you go into a bit more detail. is it cause of teh cool air and warmer sea that this turbulence occurs?
It is a long ways out and I am not completely sure I don't have all the microwave/quickscan pass whatever they use to estimate when not flying recons into storms so I am not sure,also they tend to give it some time when they are that far out.
yeah due to diurinal cooling. type that into google and you will get ur answer and it begins 2 hrs after sunset. the sun has just set or just recently at the wave so it 2 hrs u will see a burst of convection.


it has not been upgraded cause it does not meet all the criteria and while the microwave imasg looks good it is not spectacular yet though i feel that since that low to its north is about dead it will be able to wrap itself up and get those winds of 25kts to the surface thus making it a depression. that could take another 24-36 hrs
Yes I am pretty sure,but I do know it is almost like how you get landbreezes and seabreezes but not the same temperature it is just mainly because the water and air is different.But I am not completely sure exactly why yet.
I went out on a limb yesterday and said that the area off Africa would be delared a depression at 5 AM Monday. I hold firm to that forecast
ok the heating of the air causes their to be an inversion or cap and this is for over water cause the water temps play in. at night the upper atmosphere will cool quickly thru shortwave loss to the atmosphere, this alowas for that warmer air to rise and condesate thus you get convection. if u watch the tropics long enough you see that so you don't down play warming cloud tops durring the late day and don't overstate colder cloudtops in the early mornings as it is all due to the diurrinal cycle
Thanks for explaining it for me lol.
also the low to the north has been taking longer to wind down and dissapate, this is holding the system back. the longer it takes for that system to dissipate the longertill she can get more organised
its cool. just some peopledo not understand that warming cloud tops are part of a cycle and as long as the water vapor and vis still show cloud cover than it is not dust just the cycle and you also have to look at the time of day. in the tropics overnight is like late afternoon meterologicaly speaking in the midwest with all those thunderstorms blow up
if you look at this loop you will see the convection dieing down yet a burst of red right near the center and the green convection starts to rotate around the cdo feature


Link
Look at what accuweather.com says about the wave formerly known as td 10. . .

The second is a bigger problem. TD10 is gone, perhaps the reason was the tropical wave that was following it always seemed to interrupt its development pulses. Well now that tropical wave has all the potential of the pattern to itself and the mid level spin is near 20.5 north and 70.0 west this afternoon. The most likely path of this is to near Nassau by Wednesday and just east of the central Florida coast by Thursday. Building pressures over the northeast and the atlantic mid and late week are a known precursor to tropical development and so this is liable to become better organized during the week. All interests on the southeast coast should pay close attention to this. Interestingly enough, a tropical wave near 60 west is moving quickly toward it and it will either feed in and help, or compete and limit as the week goes on. Should development take place, the system may turn west into Florida and to the Gulf on the weekend given the overall pattern.

Even though td 10 may be dead, we may still be haunted by it's ghost!
Far east Atlantic tropical wave will develop very soon, there is nothing that is going to stop it from forming into a cyclone. So that's a given, its just a matter of where it ends up steering.

Now, we have another large and impressive wave transversing Western Africa, and it will be over the water in the next 24 hours. It's already confined structure will help it to develop even quicker as it enters the Atlantic ocean. Looks life the GFS is right about the tropics heating up.
ive updated my south florida blog on td 10
BOC system will most likely be next td...recon scheduled for tomorrow.
recon is on standby if needed and i doubt it will form anytime soon. we ned to see whats left of the loe lwevel circulation after it crosses the yucatan and the steering currents take it into mexica in about 24 hrs after that so it will have 18-30 hrs to itensify, but we will watch it
somebody stole my thunder by posting the accuweather comment and its from that old antique the euro. bastardi euro hasit at 28 n 78w cat1 turning wsw into gulf. he just posted this discussion. talking about split in trough june july pattern
once again setting up. also jedkins never awnsered me o n the facts of his accuracy, but that same model and the typphoon
tracks is where he connected on early storm. also talked 1995 erin with this storm i think i disscussed this 4 or 5 times.
also strmtops storm in bay of camp will develop but storm you owe me a oyster poboy that storm will stay below 22n. also storm you said no worry for big easy this year, ohoh bastardi sees gulf pattern like 2002 only lasting almost to turkey time. no el nino like after lili. jed just a friendlydisagree but modern isnt always best. lets ease up on microwaves and sattelites because could be our most vaulabe tool, kinda of long sorry, appreciate feedback and are not taken back at all with different opinions.
Wow. :( Accuweather.com has the TD-10 clone it coming towards us in New Providence (Nassau) . These are the same guys who called for 78 mph gusts here tomorrow earlier. Has anyone heard anything else about this?
i left out history it serves us best. some of the best meterologist were accurate more than any today witout all this talk about microwave and satelites. i guess some of us are old fashioned
The wave near the Cape Verdes has a well defined lower level center at 11.7N 26.0W. Once more convection nears this center, then TD11 updates will be initialized. New microwave data has arrived at the Navy site.
yeah but the sat missed the storm so no new usefullmicrowave imager. the circulation is getting betetr defined and u will see convection take off later this evening. the low to the north is still inhibiting its convection from wrapping around the llc
Is it possible that td 10 moves wnw and then nw towards SC?
oh no more microwave about the lion and hippo storm. lol just
picking lefty bastardi agrees with you has it at 20n and 60w
also picks uo on labor day storm off east coast but he says dont get excited gfs predicts this.
Lefty, it looks that wave
(microwave satellite missed), however just by looking at the system head on with IR satellite in quick motion, you can easily see the llc. It appears that new convection is already beginning near the center (its about 2 hours after sunset there)... Flaweather.com
cool thanks for the info do you have a link for his site i can get saint
yeah 79 i have a ir bw open and a ir colored using the big files lol so its really clear and you can see the spin i mentioned a few hours ago is getting well defined and the convection is now moving around the circulation. it just can't make it all the way around due to the interaction with the northern lows dying circulation. thats the reason for the slow development guys, that other low will eventually spin down and its ebergy absorbed in to the other llc
197. cjnew
and so the race is on!!! which storm gets the title td 11....the huge wave ..the BOC storm or the underdog xxxtd10
lol for right now mymoney is on the african wave cause the boc storm might be ripped aprt as it crosses the yucatan and than after that it will be heading into mexico limiting its time over water, and old td 10 is still quite disorganised so if it does develop it will be slow and take some tims. but will be unteresting to see what happens
www. accueather then go to pro lefty this is a monthly cost for this service but it is well worth it. iwork for northrop grumman ship systems mgt. and they use this service and impact wea, also. they rarely look at w/c or tpc. on decisions for the moving of navy ships and plant protection. jedkins talk to me buddy. want your opinion on that kind of accuracy. also lefty if this center keeps relocating south on your lion storm i will start to get interested. stormtop where are you buddy ill talk to you.
hurrc 79 just a quick trivia in 1979 first major hurricane hit us with male name remember bob was a cat 1 and david was cat 1 when it hit georgia, this 79 storm broke off a pine in my yard
and stuck it in the ground 100ft away like a spear.
yeah thats why i use the navy site mainly. has someof the best data and images just that the storm has to be a depression or in the case of the african wave have such potential fopr them to track it
wild1979....you're the only one smart enough to realize the obvious.....LEFTY is STORMTOP. Just a sad Internet obsessed character. He just can't help himself...he goes on and on and on and on.....responding to logical comments from knowledgable meteorologists. The fact that he's been proven wrong means nothing to him. He needs a psychiatrist. He's forcing the few people on the board who truly do have some knowledgable opinion to go elsewhere. Please....most of us here take this forum seriously, and we're looking for good input, not ramblings from the mentally unstable. You're cluttering up the board. Stormtop/Lefty/Lenny/Stormtrax....why don't you go start a new blog. All your's. You'll have total control. All that want to look in on your opinion can go join you there.
yes, its been a long time since a hurricane has actually come in contact with the Georgia Atlantic Coast
i think the gulf is in for areturn beating intersting thogh after early sept the texas threat lessens as front turn storms
more north and east poor old panhandle to lake charles. if 2002
again
first where the hell do you get off calling me stormtop, second how have i been proven wrong and third when have i been rambling on,or maybe cause i know what i am talking about and always provide links with my info supporting it. ur a disgrace for even writting that post
CosmicEvents - they do have things in common..:
same grammer errors, misspelled words, same common mistakes...you could be onto something..
if this storm enters the gulf and heads to the pan handle what type of time frame are we looking at?
let me see stormtop is from new orleans i am from va, he is a saints fan i am a skins fan. and u mean to tell me i have been arguing with myself for 2 days lol please shut up.next how have i been poen wrong. yesterday i stated word for word what the nhc said at 805 7 hrs prior based on my own observations. i have given links with everything i say. i have even provided some of my links i use to the models. i could go on. what the hell is ur problem. and you have not once told me whenre i was proven wrong
well cosmicevents where have i been proven wrong. i am waiting
may I make a suggestion please:

Take more time writing your comments. It is really hard to try to read when sentences are run ons and figuring out where one idea or thought ends and another begins. Its like playing scrabble!

ok.. :)
i wouldlike you to point out anywhere i said something that was proven wrong. i am still waiting
common lefty...I really liked your forecasts and your knowledge. No matter who you are, lets get back to tropics...yay
Lefty...I really think you know your stuff and I appreciate the effort you make to qualify your observations and projections. I recently started tracking this blog and have not made too many comments because I know I'm out of my leauge. I have been a nut of tropical systems for about 15 years, but have no formal education in meterology. I'm not ignorant, as I have a masters in Mechanical Engieering and a Bachelors degree in Physics but I cannot compare to many that contribute to this blog. I have enjoyed the conversations and hope that some can workout thier differences before this blog becomes totally useless.
well i apprecciate the maverick thansk man. i get attacked over and over again why, cause i want the accurate info out so people will know. i ma no ones lapdog i have so much data at at my disposal to be able to make my own educated thoughts and i have to deal with this cause

a. they don't understand a word i ma saying cause they have no knowledge
b. say things people do not want to hear or believe.

is this fair hell no and it needs to stop
OK MOMMY IS STEPPING IN..BOYS GO TO YOUR ROOM AND HAVE A TIME OUT.. WHEN YOU BOTH CAN ACT LIKE GROWN UPS YOU CAN COME BACK OUT...
I hope that f u wasnt directed at me
act like grown ups, he called me out of the blue. he had not made a post on anything in hours and thats the first thing out of his mouth. he needs to go find soemthing else to do period
I agree. I have been looking for something like this for a while so I can learn more about reading the Models and have a better idea of how to read the radar, Microwave and infared imagery. However, what I seem to have found is a great deal of resentment for those that really seem to dwell in the facts and make predictions/forecasts based on the facts.
you go girl...lol
why me?? what did I say? Im trying to support you and say lets keep on talkin about tropics and now you get hostile with me..hmmmm
GO GET EM Floridagirl
exactly maverick. i stated 1 hundred times if you want to contradict me do it, but bring the facts cause thats what i always supply. i don't go an hour with out giveing posts with links why, cause i want others to see the info isee and here their input but they just throw crap at me and most of the room does not believe a word i say. cause they don't understand. like yesterday when i came in here and mentioned that wave of of africa. everyones defense was the nhc hadn't said a word about than bam they say exactly what i said hours befor and evefry acted like they knew about themselves. i waste alot of time giving people info and links and answering questions and to be treated like this. i could bitch slap someone
(I dont want to relight the riot torches again...)
NO HITTING !!
whats this than whirlwind, this is what you posted to cosmicevents after his post about me


Posted By: whirlwind at 11:20 PM GMT on August 21, 2005.
CosmicEvents - they do have things in common..:
same grammer errors, misspelled words, same common mistakes...you could be onto something

so fine f u and don't forget i said go to hell
Ok lets not let emotions get involved in a Weather blog. Lets just try to get the facts out there, and let people percieve them however they see nesessary. We seem to do better at discussing the tropics than arguing about nonsense, so lets talk tropics.
NHC at 8PM:
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 100 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N26W...ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT
EXTENDS S OF 20N AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SEVERAL LOW AND
MID-LEVEL LAYERS OF CLOUDS ARE MAKING THE EXACT CENTER OF THE
LOW A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE PUTS IT
ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO N OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS NOT AS GREAT AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY...AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 25W-32W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO BEING PULLED UP
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE
VERDES TONIGHT. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY ON THE CUSP OF A SHEAR
GRADIENT...IS ENTRAINING DRY DUSTY AIR TO ITS N...AND IS
HOVERING JUST S OF THE 26C OCEANIC ISOTHERM...BUT GIVEN THE
LARGE CIRCULATION AND LOW PRES NEAR THE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS.
I was trying to make a joke about your commonality with StormT. Calm down man....
i was, i didn't start this but i will end it. wirlwind if you want to joke with them or be on their side and attck me thats you. i will not answer another question or comment on anything you type. same goes for anyone else who wants tocomeon here and act like a 4 yr old
Lefty... Dont forget Cosmic is the one that always tried to argue with you from the beginning. He got bored so hes doing it again...!!!

ok man...can we be friends.....war doesnt accomplish nothin
With all due respect to Joe Bastardi, I think he needs to get more sleep or something, because he's dreaming. This guy might have his moments but this isn't one of them. He's been overplaying this system for a while.

Its possible he could be right, thats a long way out timewise, but its irresponsible to publicly give such details. We simply don't have the data this far ahead to make such a prediction. At this stage what he says is NOTHING more than a guess.


In regard to the other system in the E. atlantic, we just have to watch. Right now all I see is convection being enhanced in the ITCZ. We need to see consisiten convection around the center before the NHC will name it. After all time is plenty to watch. As of now we have a broad ill defined rotation, and we need to see it tightenup.
yeah 79, i said atleast 24 hours to shake off that dying low which is pulling in the dry air. after that it will start to develop as soon as that low dyes off.
I will take my expertise to another blog. Thank You.
Too much arguing in this blog. TTYL
Thanks 79 for an actual weather facual information post!

This nonsense is out of hand. Please move it to your own blog.
Anger & childish insults have no place here!

Thanks all
Whirlwind I have mine lit since this afternoon thought that i could put them out but guess not, hope hurricanecrab got his to might need them. LOL
^^^^^^
||||||
Ok everyone, here is a good shot of Africa and another impressive wave poised to enter the Atlantic in the next 12 to 24 hours.Link
lol and people blame me for people leaving the blog. handfull opf peopledo not know how to act like adults
hey txweather go to alec's blog. don't leave here.
let him leave. this willprobly be one of my last posts on here. tired of the crap
244. cjnew
are you being serious lefty because you said that before and got me all excited
i never said i was leaving befor, but if i do it will be because of people like u
Woah, what happening. I make 1 little post and people are leaving. Did I miss something.
BTW, the African Dust that Stormtop was referrring to many times in the past few weeks was caused by a large scale weather anomaly. The ridge North of the Azores was amplified more than normal, causing not only stronger E-W winds across the continent of Africa, but it also caused a downstream (over Africa) Northward shift of the ITCZ (Itratropical Convergence Zone). This shift would allow waves traversing the continent to move over the Southern edge of the Sahara. Of course, when a tropical wave does this, it will pick up dust and sand with its winds. The desert is similar to the Ocean, it does not create much friction. This dust will continue with this wave as long as gravity, or coriolis, doe snot allow the dust to escape. Hence, for the past several weeks, we have seen this continuing. Only a few waves have escaped this (Irene for example was lucky). This pattern seems to be ending with the emergence of the wave that is passing the Cape Verde Islands. This information will shed some light on DR. Masters discussion and forecast as well as end some scrutiny that has come upon the forecasters in these Blogs
no my actions were pervoked for ne reason, seems like the vitcim smacking the bully back. thats the problem. you don't make a post in hours and the one you do make has nothing to do with weather and is directed at me, not talking bout u tx as i did enjoy our disscussion earlier. thats treatment i am not going to sit here and take
people leave this blog because people argue. We are not here for that. When I come home from work I like to read what has happened in The tropics not the bickering
I'm so tired of all this BS. Lefty I enjoy reading your theories but your constant arguing is childish and inane, please stop. I don't care if Stormtop says the next hurricane will be purple with green spots and hitting Alaska, it's his OPINION, same as yours. Please grow up all of you and stop fighting or find a "teen blog" to argue on.

Proofreading and the use of some punctuation and capitalization can be our friend and it makes it much easier for us old folks to read.



so than i guess me doing just want u said got me a post like this

Posted By: CosmicEvents at 11:15 PM GMT on August 21, 2005.
wild1979....you're the only one smart enough to realize the obvious.....LEFTY is STORMTOP. Just a sad Internet obsessed character. He just can't help himself...he goes on and on and on and on.....responding to logical comments from knowledgable meteorologists. The fact that he's been proven wrong means nothing to him. He needs a psychiatrist. He's forcing the few people on the board who truly do have some knowledgable opinion to go elsewhere. Please....most of us here take this forum seriously, and we're looking for good input, not ramblings from the mentally unstable. You're cluttering up the board. Stormtop/Lefty/Lenny/Stormtrax....why don't you go start a new blog. All your's. You'll have total control. All that want to look in on your opinion can go join you there

seems the problem is bigger than just me and my actions are just reactions to this type of crap
A request. Everybody pretend that the person you are writing to is sitting across a table from you. Don't write if you wouldn't say it to a person you were talking too. There's no reason for anybody to have to leave. Just be polite. If you disagree say something, but if you can't agree just agree to disagree. We are all adults here or will soon be. It time to learn polite interaction.
Please don't argue :'(. I want to hear everyones opinions. Just to let everyone know, the teen blogs won't allow this either.
but txweather this has gotten old. We are not leaving just moving to a different one on here. Lefty it is just not you this has been going on for a while with others. You have to understand where we are all coming from.
yeah and i am with you i just can try tonot argue but i get attcked and all i am doing is trying to do the same thing u guys are doing. watch and learn together in a group of your peers. i ma not saying all my actions were good but her of late i was doing nothing and bam i got this crap to deal with. my thought s are why should i even post here than
257. JeffM
Hey TX, what exactly did J. Batardi state that your not agreeing with? I obviously missed that post.

Thanks
well lefty, personally, I am very sorry you got attacked, and I think that who ever did this should stop.
tx said it all. You may not like what people have to say but just don't keep it going just go on with what you are saying no matter what others say.
well thanks evan
and i am not, as u see most the trouble makers stoped posting. its calm in here again like it is evrynight late at night. wish it was like this right here all the time. i ma going to do my best to just ignore people from here on out
good dateline on andrew on nbc
that is what you have to do. You will see thing will go more smoothly.
i feel ya raysfan
evan are you in this blog
that is the reason some of the other ones that are good at what they do have some sort of meterology behind them left. Because they go tired of trying to get what was happening out there across. And there were a few of them on here.
Hey, raysfan, I got about a half hour of steady rain around
3:30, then again around 6:30. That helped! Did you get any of that weather when it came through?
That Dateline was great. I remember going down there to help people clean up afterwards. It was something that will stick in my mind for the rest of my life. The entire city of Homestead was gone. We were lucky in Palm Beach that it turned south at the last second.
is it safe for me to get back on. lefty those two just want to get to bud just ignore them stormtop needs to do that to . but the cursing is uncalled for this is sunday? ive found when people are rude tell them you will pray for them kinda quitens them up. tex i would not doubt bastardi very often unless you read his comments regurally. and rememberthere are ladies and teens on line lets be gentleman.
my wife is seeing some of this for the first time and its blowing her mind. i told her this storm changed how we predict and act befor and after a hurricane
It also changed all of our building codes down here. All of the new communities that had been built were wiped out because the codes were weak.
yup
hey towlady yes i got rain from both mroe on the 6:30 storm though cooled it right brought the temp down for us to 78. Was Nice
hey jup lucky you got 90 pound andrew instead of200lb camille
there was no 25 foot wall of water with andrew. a wind gauge on a banana boat in gulfport was stuck on 238mph. i have a tape of the damage all andrew fans would be shocked. im sorry its apet peeve i know andrew was bad but camille was worse and fredrick was horrible. it just seems the media has a fixation with andrew and florida what about the rest of who experienced the mainland us. worst hurricane. sorry dont mean to be rude.
propbly casue they have so much amatuer and newx footage. its all about what you can do for an hour special i guess
Yes Jeff14
Hey, the TPC has a model forecast for the Cape Verde System, http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/05082200 Link
lefty my grandmothers house was one mile from the beach in biloxi she had 6ft of storm surge in her house. the water crossed the railroad tracks on division street 2.5 miles from the beach. if you ever go to biloxi there is a museum. ithink
you would find interesting.
yeash thats sounds feirce
The water temp in PC is 89F, but thats off the N. spoils of the county. The S. County would have temps near 90F. with the exception of the channels...not asleep yet
79 that looks about right but might still be to early to tell. the center is still etting better defined but still lacking convection directly above it. it probly will get better convection as she moves west and away from the isotherm. i belive 24-36 hrs is a good outlook for the depression to be classified and the reason for ti not being a depression is the lack of winds and convection in and around the center. what do you think 79
I believe that the wave will be classified as a depression by the AM hours on Monday. What they seem to be looking for is an actual visual image that depicts the center. As of now, all the NHC has is SCAT winds, and microwave data, which, on its own is insufficient. A few hours of daylight Monday over there should be enough for a declaration, so to speak.
sounds reasonable. i think they might wait for some convection. in the latest ir img a burst of deepconvection has developed north of the circulation. will watch it over the next few hours and if that convection grows over the center i am more than certain what u say is correct
lefty i think s/top was right about the dust although if this llarge system stays weak it could track toward carrib and be a monster. if it forms to early with its size it would turn north
quickly. hey 79 are you from p/cola remember fredrick. watched it blow a hess gas station down the road. was without power for
4 weeks. it was a stronger storm than ivan. p.s. lefty if ivan
had 91 ft waves 80 miles south of pascagoula what do you think
camilles waves must have been.
Sorry, not from Pensacola, from Central Florida
my bad well erin crossed you in1995 bastardi seems to think
what could happen with system north of hispionla. and then to gulf,
That type of system (Erin) would bring welcomed rainfall. That storm gave up about 45MPH sustained, but about 4 inches of rain. Some areas in West central Florida have actually have somewhat of a dry spell since June.
well erin was acat 2 when it hit p/cola though
well stormtop was refering to the dust at 40-50w. most of the problems with this storm i personally think lies with the interaction with the dieing low to its north that kept the llc eposed last night and keeping it unable to rotate its convection around souther llc. now the rotation of the northern llc also pushed some dust into the system woth its rotation but this will be minimal as the norther rotation dies and the souther llc stays south of 20 w. also being so close to the 26c isotherm it has limited energy to draw from. so in my opinion it was a combo of factors that has slowed the development but the stregth of the llc will prevail given time. still looking at a 24-36 hour of reorganasation as the norther low finaly winds down and lessens its influence on the southern low
heres the link to the Scatt winds over all systems in the Atlantic Basin: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ocean_image21/qscat_barbs_atl_14.png
that link is over 3 days old. the best link is the navy site right here

Link
wow lefty are you glued to your computer your on alot lol
pretty much though i just got nack on. i was off for alittle bit tospend time with the wife
sainthurrifan-

i don't believe they had equipment to measure wave ht in camille in 69 but believe they would have been much larger--i can tell you what the wind felt like inside a building during it though- and it is nothing that anyone would like to be in
did everyone stop arguing and go to bed?
no all the troublemakers left so us adults can hold honest educated disscussions
it looks like the blob off the coast of sc/ga has died tell me why

it had rotation - in very warm but did not continue to build

your opinion
it had no low level circulation and no low pressure assciated with it. it really had no chance but with convection you never know what will happen
actuall after lookiong at the surface analysis it was convection asscoiated with a weak low pressure are centered over georgia and souther sc. since the low was not over water no development would occur and the low probly weakend and has since dissapted but i would wait for the next surface analysis to be certain of this. either way with the low over land and no closed circulation it would be hard for it tomaintain convection
lefty

do u have this site..i use it to get the big picture on what is happening..
what site here is the link to the surface analysis from noaa

Link
by pig picture i mean an overallpic of the atlanticand crib and how storms react to each other
whats the link to the site?
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=SatelliteImagery&product=AtlanticLoop&prodnav=none

sorry forgot to add
lefty...just read your comment above that it's "clearly not" full of dust. It is, though.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/movies/m8split/m8splitjava5.html
wabbitt you experienced camille i was on alec blog jekins tried to compare it to charly and said camille and freddy were not bad because they hit rural area but he got blasted by so now he sees thelight just seems if they dont hitfla no one remembers andrew was not camille nor was charly jeanne or frances nor were they freddy you agree.
*note to more amateur viewers: the dust doesn't show up where there are clouds (on that link I posted), but you can infer based on that data it goes into the rest of the system (and doesn't just consistently stop right at the edge of the clouds).
its not, a littledust got into the northern end but thats not the major problem. the major problem was the proximity of the 2 lows. since the foirst one was weakening tit did not rotate around the first. now that the second low is dieing off the second low has a better chance. now convection is starting to blow up over the llc. give it 24-36 hrs, time for the second low to move over warmer waters and for the first northen low to finish dissipating
OK lefty that might mean you're an amateur viewer....it only looks like it's on the northern end because the dust will NEVER appear where there are clouds. It's obviously all through it.
yeah but dust will show up in the water vapor loop which shows the llc in a moist air mas. its the shear caused by the first low ,mixed in with lower water temps only 26c and the little dust circulating in from the first low. all these factors played in to slow development but won't stop it. it has a welldefined low criculation and has deep convection around that circulation with a new band of convection blowing up over the center in the last ir img as 30 mins ago
alsoall the things i mentioned where mentioned by the nhc at 1130 as well as the increas in convection. development is still expected thru the next 36 hours
saint hurrifan

camille did hit a populated area but it was 69 if the area andrew hit was in 69 less damage would have occured in fl

and andrew was a hi 4 or low 5---camille was a high 5 with sustained winds of over 100mph and gusts who know.. but yes
well lefty the dust got the best of your tropical wave just like i said while over africa it got to much wrapped into the circulation and kept it from developing...lefty i was not trying to play both sides of the fence..i said infatically the wave would not develop because it came off the coast the 19th of august..i will guarantee the next wave which will be coming off the coast will not have to deal with the dust and you will see rapid development this week....the storm may be named jose or katrina...i hope everyone that thought i was a fool and didnt know what i was talking about thinks different now...lefty you had a great system if it would of come off the african coast tomorrow...it was 2 days to early...anyway you have lost lots of convection since this morning...you still have about 6 more hoours lefty ...you need a miracle...lefty the one that is coming off the coast tomorrow will strtengthen rapidly and be jose or katrina...ray i hope you learned a lesson to all i want to do is help you guys you to storm and hawk you know i respect your opinion....all i can say is the dust beat you lefty...i wish you could of seen it on the coast when the wavew first developed....like i said you have until 5am in fact lefty im not going to be cocky but generous i will give you and extra 6 hours until 11am tomorrow....i still am pulling for you ....i hope it spits out the dust in the circulation but it appears to me its to far gone....
yeah, I'm just saying the dust is clearly there. I am not too familiar on how these situations usually play out, if anything it might be a good thing because it's keeping it from developing too soon (i.e. fish storm). The wave behind it looks really impressive though too, and based on its 'past' I wouldn't expect it to have much dust in it at all.
winds should have read 200
and cane while i respect your opinion my veiws fall inline with the nhc and thats what i am continueing to support. slow development in to a depression durring the next 36 hours. also the low has dropped in pressure over the last 24 hors down to 1008 mb thats low and showsx the stregth of the low and how little change in enviroment like warmer water temps and the end to the northern cut off shear from the northern low will increase development thru 36 hrs. the problem is that it is moving slow so it will take time to get to warmer waters
goodnight lefty looks like one of the arguers made it back.
lefty ont give up on your storm looks like they want to keep further west . if it gets in carrib. lookout. hope it dont hit florida w/c media would run it nto ground to. let it hit where camille and freddy did and it will be forgotten quickly.
goodnight god bless.
storm nice to see u again. i respect ur opinion but my statements still fall inline with the nhc assement and only mentions slight dust intrusion in the north , there are other factors that with a little western movement will aleviate the situation.convection is blowing up over the center right now so your pre-mature assessment is on you. nhc expexts development thru the next 36 hrs as i stated earlier in this post
you right cane i have been saying it all alone....you watch the next wave which will come off tomorrow it will strengthen rapidly into jose or katrina and it wont take 3 days to become a depression ..this one will be a depression by late tuesday and continue to strengthen rapidly as it moves west....
good night saint and i see nothing to make me not think the stormwill develop while earlier it looked like it would develop faster it has nothing but better winds and warmer waters to its west as the nhc stated.iwill see u tomm
the two waves are fairly close together, so I would expect a battle in the coming days...
lefty it reads possible development
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 100 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N26W...ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT
EXTENDS S OF 20N AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SEVERAL LOW AND
MID-LEVEL LAYERS OF CLOUDS ARE MAKING THE EXACT CENTER OF THE
LOW A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE PUTS IT
ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO N OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS NOT AS GREAT AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY...AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 25W-32W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO BEING PULLED UP
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE
VERDES TONIGHT. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY ON THE CUSP OF A SHEAR
GRADIENT...IS ENTRAINING DRY DUSTY AIR TO ITS N...AND IS
HOVERING JUST S OF THE 26C OCEANIC ISOTHERM...BUT GIVEN THE
LARGE CIRCULATION AND LOW PRES NEAR THE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS.

nhc disscussion falling inline with what i have posted all day and stated late last night after locating the exposed llc. i feel evry confident in this assessment
and for what it's worth, the new GFS is really starting to key in on the SECOND wave, and does little with the first (this sort of proves the point of what Dr. Masters was saying, individual waves are hard to forecast for development)
can anyone direct me to a pressure link
as i stated while i respect your opinions i am not going to argue over this. the nhc and myself stae 36 hours and thats my view. your maybe as diff as you want but will not change my assessment
well I still think it has a shot at development, but my added doubt comes in when thinking of the battle ensuing. Two waves this close together can not develop in harmony...
models need to be looked at run consitency so befor i write off or support the models i want to see 2 -3 moremodels runs. you need a concensus of those runs, though i must also mention the gfs intilises the low of the afircne wave to far east than where it is really located, a limiting factor to that modles reliabilty
lol lefty i never referred to dust at 40 or 50 i think you are on drugs if you think that all my posts are documented...you have until 11am lefty i think im pretty generous to give you and additional 6 more hours to get your wave to develop into a depression....
The huge thunderstorm complex over Western Africa is about to enter the Atlantic ocean, looks very healthy and symmetrical much like the wave now churning to its east.
links to the surface analysis

Link

here u can also see that the low and wave associasted with the wave over africa now is still well inland and not as close as the convection you see would appear
well hello storm thought they run you off glad to seeyou
beenarguing with some fellows disrespecting camille and freddy
charly stronger than camille well wegot him straight. now on the wave in africa you were right dust attack but heres the thing if it stays a wave moves west to carrib lookout you remember camille was wave all the way to nw carr and ouch what
happened and i bet you a poboy problems in gulf nxt week from not td10 but 11 will form cros fla into gulf old bastardi too
good he got cindy we know it was really a hurricane. p.s want my dinny,s poboy for b/c storm not going north. hey if im wrong
ill give you my saints tickets. please awnser want your opinion late cant stay up much longer.
do you have a bigger map these old eyes don't see as they should
but STORM, I misinterpreted what you were originally calling for...I thought you meant it was going to hit that old dust at 20-30 longitude. I didn't know you meant it already had dust in it
thats the best i have
saint

new here whos blog were you agrueing about camille and charly
lefty thats where you go wrong models..there is no way the models can pick up dust or tell how much dust was on the african coast the last 3 weeks..water vapor imagery did a great job of that in the last 4 weeks.....now lefty you need to know the dust that killed your wave was already wrapped up in the circulation when it left the coast on the 19th...im telling you once again thats why it didnt develop...lefty i was the one who said the tropics off the african coast would increase greatly on the 21st of august because all the dust has left the trade winds have let up so now you will get explosive development...the wave behind you lefty will eat your linch thats the one that will be the monster and turn into a cat 5 as it moves westward...its a fresh wave with a low with no dust to deal with in its circulation....
and STORMTOP, just out of curiousity, how did you know it was full of dust?
storm old buddy give me a opinon, and give lefty abreak yall should stick together you both get blasted for giving honest
opinions remember the phrase from hap if and buts candies and nuts if the queen had a different anatomy she would have been king.
i never once said naything about models and dust stormtop. i appreciate your opinion and will bewatching the system as i have for 2 days now. thanks
saint

well put
sainthurrifan...I can't understand a thing you say. Maybe you should try periods or something, I can't comprehend any of it.
wabbitt jed on alecs storm hurry want a opinion.
its coolman. i am done arguing with people. its pointless and takes away from the blog. if u want togive me links to look at some info storm i be happy to but at this time i respect your opnion and the opinions of everyone else and will be watching this sytem to see happens
cane its in la/ms tongue the rest see to get it oh well storm
guess you left me hanging like our old saints
cane all my posts are documented i have said this 3 weeks ago...lefty now wants me to give him another 36 hours for his wave to become a depression...i said yesterday and this morning when you all laughed at me that the dust was in the circulation..lefty didnt want to hear anything i had to say...saint and weatherguy wwew the only ones who listened to me....you think i would contradict myself after i said the dust would leave the african coast the 21st.......i told you the next wave will be hell and lefty you have until 11am thats 42 hours i have given you for this thing to develop into a tropical depression...if it doesnt it wasnt because it was not a good well organized system but the dust inside the circulation and the dust getting in from the sw side of the system which i pointed out last night....
how do i get to alec's blog??
nobody knows or just won't tell

to my last post
thank you storm i apreciate ur opinion. while i do not need you to give me to any time period as i do not answer to you. i have stated my assessment and forcast as well as i have looked anc considered yours. please don't be fixed on me as i have my own opinion based on the data i see. things always change and i maybe right or you maybe right. now if you have nay links you want me to comment on or anything i be glad to but i ma not going to argue about this storm as it is in the watch and lets see stage. once again thanks for your comments
wabbitt do you see my comments storm has not awnsered me so maybe im doing something wrong. lol storm if you do like your comment on previous comments hey buddy we are outnumbered by florida guys. lol p.s i bet you have and oreck as much as you like dust lol.
saint how do i get on alec's blog?
well good night you guys all you all keep your eyes on the southern gulf and the wave coming off africa tomorrow...it will be really busy this week...this wave will move west towards the caribbean the high is strengthing so this will be something to deal with for the isalnds in about 5 days...im hoping its katrina and not jose..i want to see jose develop in the gulf...good night saint and go black and gold..........
good night storm
lefty

have you been over to steve gregorys bolg -- cool pics
yeah its cool too
where did he get them-- do you know?
no i don't
on a pay for weather site?
probly
lefty what is at 48w/32n
wabit, I know you didn't ask me, but it's an ULL (upper level low).
cane didn't know you were on

it is impressive


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

a good map to see it
cane

is that the middle arrow on dr masters map on the blog?
no...the middle arrow is the first wave we're looking at right now recurving. ULL's tend not to develop into anything tropical, although it can happen when interacting with a wave as was the case with Harvey, I think it was.
convection continues to wane with the wave... (look at the last image, 2:45 UTC)

Link
thank you for your input cane. the convection actually is picking up over the center here is a link with a loop as of
500z

Link
cane

what is your take on the wave
ur loopcane is almost 3 hrs old and mine is 30 mins but it did die down in the itcz and pick up over the center.
My take on the wave...well I did think it would develop, although not nearly as rapidly as Lefty's 2-3 day tops hurricane status. Now I am unsure because the second wave is looking impressive, and if it were to develop, might zap some of the energy from the first wave. Right now I've at least got my eyes on the second wave for more potential down the road.

And I know Lefty says not to look at model tracks this early lol, but the models that do still develop the first wave all take it out to sea well before the islands. I think this has gotta mean something, and the HPC agrees with this too...
I'm sorry lefty but I do not see a dramatic difference in the wave's appearance...it looks the same to me. Also, have you noticed that the center of the circulation is well to the north? It's not developing down below as it was before.
cane good assesment. allmodels prior to a storm formation are very unaccurate, irenne was suppose to go straight north rember, but i do see that and take that into mind. the models used by the nhc bam and bammm take it wnw which i doubt as much too but the ships calls for a 81kt storm in 4 days. someone had the link in here somewhere, my feeling is she will form but probly not hit land. not to worried bout all that now. did you look at the ir loop i supplied
that is the circulation of the second low to the north. the low we are concerned with is sw of the southern most island. its not as easy to see now that convection is right over the center.
I did look at the IR loop...it's not impressive at all. Not to say it won't pick back up, but this dust means business!
the far north circulation is moving wnw or nw and was alot closer to the second low llast night and accounted for its slow development. i willget you a btter loop to look at
remeebr the color is diff, white is 30- any way the center looks the best since it was exposed last night. here is a b/w loop easier to see the circulation

Link
lefty

i see the northern low being spun of--but in doing so it is sucking dry air/dust toward the other low
exactly wabit. and that's whats happening. did you look at the other link I posted earlier? It shows this very clearly.

Link
while i respect your opinion i must state the northern low is winding down as it has or is dissipating which will improve conditions, as well u can see the convection blowing up right over the cenetr and to its west. this has all developed in the past 3 hrs. my opinion is it is slightly better organised but not much cause i have to take in account the convection now developing over the center. since the center formed it has not had much of any convection over it at all. most of the convection was in banding and in the itcz. now it has blossoming convection over the center.
nice link cane i appreciate it. it shows now dust making it into the southern crculation, someminor dust intrusion to the north of it but most of the circulation is spared.
should say no dust
cane

i don't see a lot of cyclonic movement little convection at this time and with the amount of dry air to the north and west it will it will be hard to develop in the next 24/36 hours
lefty...it doesn't show dust where there are clouds! It never does. You could have a massive dust storm and if any clouds drift into it, it shows there being no dust. The dust is there, I promise, lol.
cane i was in a dust storm in ok city and it rained red
What it is, IMO, is a strong low that moved off Africa and all the models picked up on it because it looked so intense. It's not 'pure' in a tropical sense, the northern low seems to be dominating the system and is just wrapping more dust into whatever convection was trying to form to the south. The wave behind it has none of these problems to deal with, it's just a normal tropical wave rolling off the coast, and at a good latitude I might add.
cane i respect your opinion and will take that into consideration. on another note the storminess along the coast, the syface analysis does not show a wave thats the itcz but it might be to early to be sure. also the low is still 1008 mb per the 205 uodate and they still call for possible development in 36 hours based on the large circulation and the low pressure. the circulation is there and is easier to see if u set the speed to real fast as this is a loop of images taken close together versus far aprt. will post the link for the surface anylasis

Link
the northern circulation is no longer a low. it disipated hours ago, the circulation has been dying off over the last 12 hrs and probly take another 12 hrs to finaly spin down
cane a view of the blob still over africa--does look impressive
link

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html#atlantic
The new Euro shows the first wave recurving bigtime and then it hints at a second system developing behind it. Interestingly, all the models I've seen keep the second wave well to the south, heading west or WNW, while the first wave they all recurve sharply out to sea...
hmm, I can almost hear the crickets. =)
Good morning everybody. Did you see how the first wave off Africa is dissappearing? This saharan dust is powerful stuff.
good morning anybody out there
This is from accu weather

Today's Discussion
Today's Discussion Posted: August 22, 2005 8:44 a.m.



There are three systems that we are watching for potential development
Monday morning. An area of low pressure is located over northwest Guatemala and southern Mexico. This may become better organized as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, but will likely move inland on Tuesday south of the United States.

The second is a bigger problem. TD #10 is gone, perhaps the reason is the tropical wave that was following it always seemed to interrupt its development pulses. Well, now that tropical wave has all the potential of the pattern to itself and the midlevel spin is near 20 north and 75.0 west. The most likely path of this is to near Nassau by Wednesday and just east of the central Florida coast by Thursday. Building pressures over the Northeast and the Atlantic mid and late week are a known precursor to tropical development and so this is liable to become better organized during the week. All interests on the southeast coast should pay close attention to this. Interestingly enough, a tropical wave near 60 west is moving quickly toward it and it will either feed in and help, or compete and limit as the week goes on. Should development take place, the system may turn west into Florida and to the Gulf on the weekend given the overall pattern. There remains a lot of uncertainly with this situation and it will have to be watched closely over the next couple of days.

A strong tropical wave is located near 27 west and south of 14 north and is moving west at 15 knots. The wave shows a decent circulation and is a good size with some decent convection around the center. With lower pressures in the center; some development is possible with this system over the next couple of days.


Whats up....the bay of campeche is looking good....but that will be shortlived.....Hello Mexico! the tropics are boring, which is a good thing I guess.....or maybe its building up to unleash, who knows......
watch for system north of 21n 72w there will be your main interest b/c headed for tacos the other 2 off africa still are
chasing lions and tigers guys central fla and n/c gulf watch out. maybe you dust fans and tarzan fan will change your focus.
see you later. have a good morning.
hi well who knows what nature has instore for us
hello
i agree with you saint it looks better organized and it more concentrated this morning...i dont think it will do much until it moves away from the land areas...the one thats doing something and that i hoped may be jose is the one in the bay of campeche...leave my katrina thats cming off the african coast will be the first cat 5 of the season...this is becoming better organized and does not have any dust to deal with...this will also travel towards the caribbean sea and play hell with the iaslnds by the weekend...leftys wave is going to be sucked up by katrina who is coming off the coast today...yes saint i agree with you if this develops we might have out hands full the one two punch...i just hope its not katrina..ill settle for lee...i want the one off the african coast to ba katrina...i think jose will form sometime today in the bay of campecehe..it needs to get on shore in mexico as fast as it can so we can get him out the way and concentrate on the one two punch thats going to threaten us later this week ..katrina will be the following week...im predicting to everyone on here the next wave that moves off the coast will be a cat 5 amnd it will move west quick and be affecting the islands by the weekend...
400. JeffM
Where is the link that shows all the track models you are using? As in where they predict these storms are going to?
hello Stormtop.. thats quite a prediction. A cat5 named Katrina. That so called TD10 needs to get outta the way and stop sucking up all the warm waters.

If your Katrina sucks up Lefty's wave, thats one big ass storm. What happened with Jose?
it will whirwind first we have to get jose on shore in mexico out the way..then the one at 22.0n 72.5w should be lee by late tomorrow and then the baby katrina a super cat 5..i will be bringing out my new hurricane scale today..katrina will move at 18-20 and be affecting the islands by late in the weekend....we have to pay attention so we dont get caught knapping that system i mentioned could be lee could be affecting the northern gulf and s fla if the atmosphere stays like it is now and i see no reason for it to change with a huge building high over us right now...it should stay for a least 4 days before moving out...the system is to close to land whirwind but that would be our next problem not jose in the bay of campeche..its going into mexico...i predict it will be jose today its looking good down there...
jeff if you are referring to me i dont use the track models except one and thats viper...we only use that for storms in the gulf like jose whi is going into mexico as a strong tropical storm possibly a cat 1 hurricane on wedenesday...
Funny...I mention the BOC systems for potential yesterday @ 10:18 pm GMT...as well as recon being scheduled...and get scoffed at.
Please do not take this as an insult!
but Stormtop!

Why do you just like to say "Cat5" so much?

Just an observation.

All stay SAFE!
well hazmat what do you think about my dust getting in to leftys storm now...you were one of my biggest critics...what do you say now...the one behind it ready to come off of africa will be my baby katrina and will be the 1st cat 5 of the season....i guess you will have something else to say about my prediction here to...go ahead it makes me look all the better...i can handle rejection im here where is lefty..he has exactly 2 hours for this thing to become a tropical depression...dust is very strong to a hurricane when it gets in its circulation..it disrupts everything...its like a car when you pour sugar in the gas tank or water in your oil....
Hi Fellow WXers,

I think that I figured out why TD10 had such a hard time forming. It was going through a gender identity crisis. It looks like we have Jose in the gulf, and then Katrina in the northern bahamas.

Kat is going to sit off the coast of Flordia and strengthen to a Hurricane, move across Flordia into the gulf, and then become a major hurricane and move on toward Texas.

Lee will form from the Cape Verde wave and head off to sea, but not before becoming a hurricane.

Just my humble opinion, and I have no experience or credibility whatsover ... so please don't move from your house in Texas just yet.

VancouverWX
hillsbay because i been through 2 cat 5 s in my lifetime and this one set to come off the african coast is looking like a depression already...this is what im saying will be katrina and rapid strengthing towards the islands...i predicted to cat 5s this year...
This would be pretty scary if the cmc model was correct!!!!
Link

Most of the other models see a much smaller system that seems more likely
.Link
So Stormtop do you think that the wave off Africa is going to cross the caribbean? That's not good. I live in Puerto Rico.
van everyone is entitled to there opinions...you stick with yours...thats how you will learn..if i can help you in anyway let me know...
Wow 53rd, I hope that CMC model is wrong. That is pretty impressive.
which wave or you referring to the one thats off the coast or the one that is about to move off the coast.......
414. RMcD
Does anyone know ahat bastardi posted this morning ?
Stormtop.

Your info says you are in California. Strange you are so interested in major storms which would affect Fl & the EAST coast? Hillary looks pretty potent.

I hope you are wrong about "Katrina" unless it become s fish storm & cools the Atlantic.

Stormflop...why give a time frame? He stated his opinion just like you obnoxiously ram yours down everyones throat.

For this discussion...since you do...I'll call it "Lefty's wave".It's not dead yet & since you want a Cat 5 so bad you should know that the longer a system takes to develop out there the further west it will get & the stronger it will be. Since that is the case you should be glad it isn't rapidly intensifying & you should hope your future Katrina or whatever you want to call it doesn't either..That way you get your destructive Cat 5 & your jollys at the same time.Why be so pious & egotistical? Why not share in friendly debates & learn something yourself? Why the playground mentality?

I usually don't feed trolls but you seemed hungry. Used to get some decent info here...watched things go from ugly to hilarious to sad & now it's down right ridiculous. Have respect for Masters & Gregory so I'm really surprised they continue to let this go on...Oh well, their board not mine...or yours either.

Im going to write this down in ink about Katrina. Now Stormtop, if your prediction is correct about this one...yeeehaw its gonna be a rough ride from here on...

53rdWeatherRECON -- thats one crazy model. I guess with 90 degree water it may happen..
NaplesWX, you me and Raysfan are all hoping technology isn't all it's cracked up to be. I have no idea how good that CMC model has been but when I backed it up with I think the GFS - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2005082206&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr it also sees atleast a Tropical System off the west coast of Florida in 5-6 days?????
im sure they will find jose when they get domt to the bay of campeche,,,stations along the mexican coast are reporting sustained winds of 30mph with gusts to 38...veracruz reported sustained winds to 25 mph in the last hour....this will be jose as soon as the recon plane gets there...
you are right 53
NHC jsut listed td 11 in bay of camp.
hey ese...lets run fer the border...Jose is comming..ahhhh...LOL



(no phun intended)
it will be a tropical storm later today jose will be born but very short lived....
lol@whirlwind lets get him inland as quick as possible....we have a lot of serious trouble ahead of us...
StormT - Why are you watching systems that may or may not affect the US seven to ten days out. Especially when there seems to be a more legitimate threat right under our noses.
MIAMI Fl should be watching this system - Link

Only 48hrs away and possiblity of becoming a bigger problem.

I have argued against the computers before and they are bad at picking up developing systems but if anything it atleast deserves our imediate attention.
hazmat i see you still have a problem..you cant admit when you are wrong..thats ok look i cant stop whats going to happen this year..there will be 2 cat 5s and there is nothing we can do about it hazmat just except it..look i respect lucky and i always will ..i was even pulling for him hazmat but face it i will show you 20 storms that developed off the coast in the 36 hours lefty was provided..i even gave him 6 extra hours ..you think he will give me that?well the difference i explained but this already looks like a tropical depression and its still on the coast...now thats scary...
53rd thanks for the link. looks like s/fl and gulf will have problems later in the week. hope it does not track to the pan handle. we have had all we can handle. let it go to la or texas.
good morning everyone. bay of campeches storm is very nice this morning. she will not have any more than 12 hrs over water and while she might make it to jose to do belive she is a td at this point. looks good though

now for my lovely african wave. all of the convection is located at the center of a very broad circulation. the northern circulation that had been interupting and pulling in shear and dust has since dissapated. still looks as is a tropical cyclone will form in 24 -48 hrs.

the showers over africa do not impress me much yet. there is no surface low and most of those storms ar fired up in the itcz, but will be nice to see what she does when she comes off.

now i appreciate allof your opinions on this matter and would love to disscuss allof this, but storm and you other guys i will not argue. thanks
Stormtop-- if that depression near Bahamas does organize, what do you think about it? I know storms can go from cat1 to 4 over night, but what are the probabilities for strenght of that storm?
53 scroll up i talked about that earlier ...where have you been...
By the way Storm T. I enjoy your perdictions about those systems off of Africa and Mexico. But I want you to track the S Fl system.

LOL.. local channel 7 news is so lame...

"Breaking news, TD11 has just formed minutes ago and we are tracking the storm for you!"

Who cares...its shortlived..
You will show me 20 storms that have developed off the coast in the 36 hrs you gave lefty? HUH!?!?!

If that wave were to be a tropical depression when coming off the coast of Africa it will spin the fishes & not you.

No doubt we'll probably see some serious hurricanes this season...Cat 5...who knows? Certainly not you!! That was never part of the debate.

"Lefty's wave" is not out of the picture...be interesting watching 11...no threat to U.S....hope the flooding, etc...isn't too bad for Mexico.

More immediate concern is the remants of 10...you know the one you yelled at people for still talking about?

You're an idiot & so are the people who put any kind of credibility towards you.
53rd, sure looks like this thing will track across southern Florida or just south, better keep an eye on this one is right.
53, if the wave over the bahamas moves itnot he gulf she would have a good chance to develop into a cyclone but theres no low pressure at the surface. if the pressusre starts to fall it willprobly take off here is a link to the surface anaylasis.

Link
i think whirlwind it has a pretty good chance of affecting s fla anf the central gulf coast...right now its to close to land to develop but tomorrow i think this is the next depression..the waters are very warm 94 degrees ..this could be a cat 5 if it gets over the gulf waters and warm gulf stream...it also could be katrina....i dont care i think katrina will be the 1st cat 5 of the season ....lefty its over i dont want to argue with you either..i respect you and im sure giving your wave another 48 hours it should develop into a depression...lefty its your wave thats sending the other wave that looks like a depression already and is still on the coast on a westward track towards the islands....lefty you deal with computers and thats great i respect you for that but i just deal with one and thats the viper....it is hardly ever wrong...you right jose will go into mexico and i hope quick so we can get the show on the road...
Storm Top: Sory about that I just read your input...
"dont get caught knapping that system i mentioned could be lee could be affecting the northern gulf and s fla if the atmosphere stays like it is now and i see no reason for it to change with a huge building high over us right now...it should stay for a least 4 days before moving out...the system is to close to land whirwind but that would be our next problem not jose in the bay of campeche"

But you just touched on the topic and didn't provide any pictures or models. Don't you know people respond better to pictures.
hazmat while i appreciate you sticking up forme no need. i respect their opinions and willcontinue to watch a strong circulation and low that is now in a better situation now, but we do need to watch the other to systems tho it is probly 11 it will be making landfall in mexico in a matter of hours but does show how quickly a system like the one in the bahammas could drop pressure and become a cyclone. everyones opinion is great and no need to argue. thanks every one for some great forcasts
stormt i respect your opinion. and good forcats on the bay of campeche, though a depression and could make it to storm that is highly unlikely given its limited time till landfall. the showers in the bahamas needs to get better organised and drop some pressure which it has not done. for my wave it is still a 1008 pressure center and a very good circulation and it has convection over the center. i would love to see both these systems to develop but my wave needs just time and the one in the bahamas needs time to, if it moves away from land it could take off but since it has no low pressure at the surface it will take alot oftime we will watch
Is this the Vipir you speak so highly of?Link
If not, pray tell, more info?
lol@hazmat know comment and i will not comment any further towards your posts to me...you are a soar loser i gave up a lot saying that wave would not develop..remember i was the first one that came out with the african dust and i did say we would have a big lull in the first 2 weeks of august..i also said the activity would increase greatly by the 21st of august i dont need computers to tell me that hazmat..im sorry you are such a soar loser but thats the way things go you were all excited sat night and sunday laughing at me when i said it wouldnt develop now laugh at me again im predicting to cat 5's this season and yes they will both affect land areas...the only thing lefty and i agree on is jose will go into mexico and i say the quicker the better...so dont bother me with your childish remarks anymore..if you have a problem take it up with the staff on here or dr jeff....biggest thing i can tell you is GROW UP!!!!!!!!!
sore*
two*
TEMPER.
THANKS 53 IM WELL AWARE OF THAT SYSTEM AND YES IT COULD BE A CAT 5 OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF..i think we will have to watch it closely right now because it could become katrina late tomorrow and affect the s fla area for sure and then the central gulf...this is going to be a busy period 53 i said this over 3 weeks ago...we better get ready im predicting 6 maybe 7 storms will hit the usa...
td 11 has formedmore info as i get it.

nowmost models try to form a cyclone from the bahamass disturance. the key for how significant will be if it passes over southern florida or stays over water ie passing over the keys. the models that bring it thru the keys forms a very strong cyclone will def have to watch that
80miles west moving west at 8 mohs. winds of 30mph so she could form into a ts prior to landfall but landfall will be in about 10 hrs so we will see
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