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Tropical/Subtropical Depression Likely off SE US Coast; Tornadoes Still Raking Kansas

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 3:51 PM GMT on May 26, 2016

Showers and thunderstorms have increased and grown more organized in association with an area of low pressure that has formed between the Bahamas and Bermuda (Invest 91L.) This low appears increasingly likely to develop into a tropical or subtropical depression as it moves west-northwest or northwest towards the Southeast U.S. coast over the next few days. Should it become a named storm, it would be called Bonnie.

Satellite loops show that 91L has developed a pronounced spin near the surface, though no well-defined low-level circulation center was in evidence yet on Thursday morning. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 91L's center were about 26 - 27°C (79 - 81°F), which is 1 - 2°C (1.8 - 3.6°F) above average. These waters are only marginally warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm, and 91L is likely to take on the characteristics of subtropical system instead of a tropical system. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, a subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain.

Wind shear on Thursday morning was high, 20 - 30 knots, making significant development unlikely until the shear drops on Friday. A large area of dry continental air lies to the west of 91L, and this dry air will interfere with development. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 91L on Friday afternoon.


Figure 1. Lastest satellite image of 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted wind speeds for the Southeast U.S. at 2 pm EDT (18Z) Monday, May 30, 2016 from the 00Z Thursday, May 26 run of the European model (left) and GFS model (right). The GFS model predicted 91L would be inland over the South Carolina coast, while the European model had the storm just off the southern coast of North Carolina. Image constructed using our wundermap with the "Model Data" layer turned on.

A heavy rain threat for the Southeast U.S. coast
The 12Z (8 am EDT) Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Friday, then fall to the low range, below 10 knots, Saturday through Sunday. During this period, 91L will be traversing waters of 25 - 26°C (77 - 79°F), which should be just warm enough to allow the storm to spin up into a tropical or subtropical depression. The system will have to contend with a large area of dry air to its west, but if wind shear falls to the low range, 91L should be able to moisten its inner core enough to wall off the dry air and spin up. In their Thursday morning (00Z) runs, our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis--the American GFS model, the European ECMWF model, and the British UKMET model--all showed the potential for Invest 91L to develop into a tropical or subtropical depression on Friday or Saturday. In a special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 8:25 am EDT Thursday, the National Hurricane Center bumped up their development odds in the 2-day and 5-day time ranges to 50% and 70%, respectively.

Invest 91L likely will not have enough time over water to become a strong tropical storm or hurricane, so heavy rain is the main concern from this system. Heavy rains should reach the coasts of South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina on Saturday night or Sunday morning, though the I expect the heaviest rains from 91L will stay out sea to the storm's east, in a large band of heavy rain typical for a subtropical system. The Thursday morning runs of our two top models for hurricane tracking, the GFS and European models, showed the center of 91L reaching the central coast of South Carolina near Charleston on Sunday afternoon. Steering currents will then shift, as 91L gets caught in the circulation associated with a trough of low pressure passing to the north early next week, forcing 91L to turn to the northeast by Sunday night. The center of 91L will likely track just offshore or just inland along the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina on Monday and Tuesday, spreading heavy rains of 2 - 4" along its path. Ocean temperatures will cool as 91L pushes into the coastal waters of North Carolina, which should induce weakening on Monday and Tuesday.


Figure 3. One moment from the journey of a long-lived tornado that churned across central Kansas on Wednesday evening, May 25, 2016. A low-level inflow band is visible wrapping into the tornado from the right-hand side. See related video embedded at bottom. Image credit: Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University of Denver, used with permission.

Another day, another prolific tornado-producer in Kansas
After Tuesday’s sequence of highly visible tornadoes from a single supercell thunderstorm near Dodge City, KS, the atmosphere dropped countless jaws again on Wednesday as an isolated supercell marched along Interstate 70 in central Kansas. As was the case on Tuesday, this storm formed beneath relatively weak upper-level flow near the intersection of a dry line and an outflow boundary from earlier storms. Towering to 70,000 feet at one point, this all-alone storm generated 12 of the 14 preliminary tornado reports on SPC’s daily storm log by early Thursday. As it paralleled I-70 for much of its life, eventually angling across the highway, this storm produced what veteran storm chaser and damage expert Tim Marshall, who has filmed more than 200 twisters, called “the longest-lasting tornado of my chase career.” Update: This twister, roughly a half a mile wide, was rated EF4 and lasted for 90 minutes, according to the damage survey released on Friday afternoon by the NWS office in Topeka, KS. It is very rare when an individual tornado is confirmed to last more than an hour.

Almost miraculously, the tornado avoided any direct hits on large communities. It barely missed the tiny town of Talmage and passed just south of Abilene and the smaller town of Chapman; the latter was largely destroyed by a direct hit from a half-mile-wide EF3 tornado on June 11, 2008. About 20 homes were damaged or destroyed, but no serious injuries had been reported as of early Thursday.


Figure 4. A cyclic supercell spins just north of Enterprise, KS, as a long-lived tornado approaches the end of its hour-plus life cycle. Image credit: Victor Gensini, College of DuPage, used with permission.


Figure 5. The difference three hours can make: a clump of towering cumulus over central Kansas at 2215Z (5:15 pm CDT) Wednesday, May 25, 2016, had become a long-lived, tornado-spewing behemoth by 0115Z (8:15 pm CDT), as shown in this sequence of GOES visible satellite images. Preliminary tornado reports from this storm spanned the interval from 6:08 pm to 10:31 pm CDT, though tornadoes were not on the ground during that entire time. Image credit: NOAA and College of DuPage/NexLab.


The intensity of this tornado-generating machine may have surprised storm watchers, given that the NOAA Storm Prediction Center had indicated only a slight risk of severe weather for central Kansas as of Wednesday morning (and an even lower marginal risk at one earlier point). This is a good time to reiterate a key aspect of SPC convective outlooks: the risk categories are designed to emphasize probability, not intensity. The late morning outlook (issued at 11:30 am CDT) featured a 2% chance of tornadoes occurring within 25 miles of any given point (or about 1964 square miles) over a broad swath from North Dakota to Texas. This swath covered about 187,000 square miles, so the 2% odds across the swath were certainly of the right order of magnitude next to the modest amount of land area actually hit by tornadoes on Wednesday--even though nearly all of those twisters ended up occurring from a single storm.


Figure 5. Severe-weather risk areas for Thursday, May 26, 2016, issued at 8:00 am CDT Thursday by the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, include an enhanced risk for much of northern Kansas, southern Nebraska, and far southwest Texas, and a slight risk encompassing most of the southern and central Great Plains.

A serious severe threat for Thursday, with more Kansas tornadoes possible
A potentially volatile situation is lining up for Thursday, as upper-level winds strengthen and surface low pressure intensifies across western Kansas. Outside of thunderstorm-cooled areas, the air mass flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico remains unusually sultry, with dew points in the low- to mid-70s close to record levels for late May across Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. Wind shear should increase notably on Thursday, and instability will remain at extreme levels. As of Thursday morning, NOAA/SPC had placed much of Kansas and Nebraska, plus parts of southwest Texas, in the “enhanced” category of storm risk for Thursday, with a much larger slight-risk area (see Figure 5). Assuming the air mass recovers as expected, the greatest risk for tornadoes may once again be somewhere in western or central Kansas, near the intensifying dry line and surface low and a warm front expected to stretch eastward from the low. With more substantial upper energy flowing across the area today as opposed to earlier this week, storms will develop sooner and be a bit faster-moving, and severe weather should be much more widespread overall. I would not be surprised to see the enhanced-risk area upgraded and/or expanded as the day unfolds. Update: At 11:30 am CDT, NOAA/SPC enlarged the enhanced-risk area along the dry line from central Kansas to far southwest Texas. A moderate-risk area (fourth highest out of the five SPC categories] was introduced in central KS, reflecting a heightened chance of significant tornadoes in that area.

A large chunk of the stubborn upper-level low parked across the western U.S. all week will swing into the central U.S. on Friday, shunting the greatest severe threat into Texas. At least modest odds of severe weather could emerge during the holiday weekend across the southern Great Plains, as the soon-to-be-diminished western trough regains a bit of its strength.

Jeff Masters (tropical), Bob Henson (severe)



Video 1. A view of the long-lived tornado with a low-level inflow band that started out in Bennington, KS. Video credit: Sam Ng (@DocWX, Metropolitan State University of Denver, used with permission.

Hurricane Severe Weather Tornado Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. MZT
Even if it spins up to be a small class 1 hurricane that isn't a big deal to most folks on the shore, who see these often. Althugh we'll probably see some news stories about people who got too adventurous in the rough surf on the weekend.
90/90
000
ABNT20 KNHC 271136
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with the low pressure area located
between Bermuda and the Bahamas continues to show signs of
organization, and the circulation of the low has become a little
better defined overnight. Environmental conditions are generally
conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form later today
or Saturday while this system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. All
interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North
Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
low this afternoon. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this disturbance will be issued by 3 PM EDT this afternoon. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percen
Quoting 500. LargoFl:

Just want to wish the folks in South Carolina good luck and stay safe.. IF Bonnie does indeed come ashore there in a few days..hope it doesn't strengthen too much in the coming days


Good morning.

We'll be fine. As long as the power remains on, we'll have plenty to keep ourselves occupied. As long as this doesn't put on some sort of unforseen show just offshore, all will be well.


Good morning. Interesting development with 91L for sure! Best wishes along the coastline!

BTW, large parts of western and central Europe are under the threat of severe weather (including tornadoes) today and the whole weekend. One little tornado did already form this morning in western Germany: Youtube video.
Unfortunately I'll have to hit the roads tomorrow to get to my holiday destination in northeastern France (probably without or only poor internet access, so I'll be out for some time). But if the risk of large hail gets too big, I may delay my departure :-(

Latest discussion of severe weather in Europe today: estofex.org


Photo I took yesterday in an adjacent garden in Mainz on Rhine: tropical wildlife in Germany in full swing :-) (More in my blog).
Guess NHC is waiting to see what the HH find before declaring it. Wonder if they'll find a Bonnie instead of simply a TD. Probably will.
Quoting 504. nash36:



Good morning.

We'll be fine. As long as the power remains on, we'll have plenty to keep ourselves occupied. As long as this doesn't put on some sort of unforseen show just offshore, all will be well.


Morning Nash....here is hoping you don't have the same water that occurred back in October was it?
Quoting 488. Stormsaway:

The 2016 season is almost here.. Looks like another below average year again as the shear in the mid atlantic is expected to vamp up in a big way come early to mid julyl and stay high through early october... Also the sahara dust is gonna play a major role ... The central east coast of florida looks to still have its shield up firm... i only see maybe 8 storms this year... 3 canes and maybe 1 major.


Good Morning and see you joined yesterday; you need to read some journal articles, and brush up on Met 101, before making such a baseless statement as your first post. You are very off base at the moment considering the current pre-season conditions, in same order as your post, which include a) sheer is already dropping due to a transition from Enso Neutral to possible La Nina conditions by August; b) current ridging patterns in the Central Atlantic MDR; c) very robust rainfall in the Sahel that will help fight back SAL downstream for the AEWs; and d) current SST's across the lower Central Atlantic and the West Caribbean and Gulf regions due the relative lack of SAL along the ITCZ. Here is your first solid clue:


Quoting 498. LargoFl:




so....the models shifted back south...my oldest will be happy...he hunts sharks teeth
I think its too early to predict an active season. Tropical mischief in the general area of 91l in late may is common and then most years nothing else until mid august. For those with an interest in how the scientists make a prediction for the season see Levi's May 15 post at tropicaltidbits.com. He thinks it might be a slightly below average season with most of the activity in the Caribbean, gulf, and devil's triangle.
Quoting 507. tiggeriffic:



Morning Nash....here is hoping you don't have the same water that occurred back in October was it?



Good morning, Tigger.

Yes. It was October. That was bad on levels I can barely describe. We can probably expect a few inches, but there is no way this is dumping 23", like my neighborhood got last year.
Quoting 511. nash36:



Good morning, Tigger.

Yes. It was October. That was bad on levels I can barely describe. We can probably expect a few inches, but there is no way this is dumping 23", like my neighborhood got last year.


Oh, I know not 23"....I guess my brain goes to it takes 2-3 years for a tree to take hold after a major flood...only been 7 months...anything loose is at risk
Quoting 512. tiggeriffic:



Oh, I know not 23"....I guess my brain goes to it takes 2-3 years for a tree to take hold after a major flood...only been 7 months...anything loose is at risk



Indeed. I have three incredibly tall pines in the backyard. If those come down the wrong way, it'll cut the house in half. Our two story would be a one story.
Good Morning everyone..

Just saw Levi's video and its very informative. If you haven't seen it, do so..Lots of variables in play.

With that being said, our NWS wrote up a great discussion. They are now discounting the GFS and considering it as an outlier..and frankly until it starts raining, they aren't sure how much will fall..where this system stalls and how much rain falls is going to be the main threat for someone..


NWS, Wilmington, NC
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Friday...A consensus can be seen in the PMSL plots from
the GFS/NAM/ECMWF/SREF solutions showing a 1009-1013 MB low moving
near or onshore into the Charleston area sometime Sunday afternoon
or evening. This consensus was used to generate pop distribution and
construct the QPF layout for Saturday and Sunday. The rainfall
expectation at present is 1 to 1.25 inch totals SAT/SUN for coastal
SC and around a half inch on areal average across SE NC. Winds at
least for now do not appear to pose a hazard concern. Convection
embedded in the tropical moisture however could cause locally heavy
rain because precipitable waters in excess of 2 inches will edge
onshore by Saturday afternoon. Low-level winds are not strong so any
TSTMS should remain below severe limits barring no enhanced low
level helicity. The National Hurricane Center will be sending out a
plane today to investigate the offshore system. Maximums both days
near average for this time of year, low and middle 80s. Minimums
will be slightly above overage due to clouds and abundant
moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...Lots of uncertainty remains in the extended as
what could very well be Topical/Sub-tropical storm Bonnie drifts
across the area. Other than the GFS which is a clear outlier (00z/27
guidance) - the majority of the models develop a weak closed low
moving onshore in SC and then drifting slowly before lifting NE at
the start of the extended. The difference in the GFS vs the other
guidance is how the surface low interacts with a shortwave moving
through the Great Lakes and into New England. This shortwave is the
one currently across TX...and this should break down the ridge
enough to allow the surface low pressure to move NE and out of the
area mid-week around the offshore high. The GFS does not have this
happen and therefore spins the weak low across SC through all of
next week.

That being said...will favor a non GFS forecast for next week. This
suggests increasing rain and thunderstorm chances...mostly Mon/Tue
as the weak low meanders NE across the ILM CWA. The combination of
the weak low moving slowly overhead and the deep easterly tropical
fetch angling into the area will produce widespread showers and
thunderstorms early next week. Still uncertainty exists about QPF
due to the showery nature of the precip and weakening 850mb
wind/moist transport...but with PWATS around 2 inches there is at
least the potential for periods of heavy rainfall. Beyond
Tuesday...anticipating the slow departure of the remnants of the low
pressure...the area will remain unsettled but with at least somewhat
decreasing shower chances and warming temperatures as ridging begins
to blossom across the SE.
Quoting 513. nash36:



Indeed. I have three incredibly tall pines in the backyard. If those come down the wrong way, it'll cut the house in half. Our two story would be a one story.


Got one behind our house...the one I worry about is the one a few houses down...it lists about 30 degrees to the left...right towards all the power lines and transformer that supplies our 30 house neighborhood....
Beautiful Morning here in sunny south Florida. Looks like Bonnie may become. Very interesting start to the season. Have a beautiful weekend my friends.
Will note that we are all exited about the start of the Atlantic Season and enjoy watching and tracking hurricanes. It is horrible when they make landfall on a populated area and cause death and destruction, however, if they do not but do reach major status whether in the Central Atlantic or any other basin for that matter and spin off harmlessly towards the poles (fish storms) or spin-down before impacting a coast, a major tropical storm is one of the most beautiful and powerful sights that Mother Nature can deliver on Earth..................Heat releasing engines for this planet that dwarf anything that Man can create in terms of sheer energy and that have been here waaaaaay before Man and that will be here long after we are gone...................Little Cousins to the Great Red Storm on Jupiter (its a cosmic thing) and similar to the circular-spiral patterns that we observe on other planets in the Solar System (in terms of surface weather activity) and which even mimic the shape of the Milky Way Galaxy and other ones across the Universe..........................An amazing thing to be able to witness them and hoping that they do not come towards your particular neck of the woods.

That is my Ode to Tropical Storms on the eve of June 1st.
Michael Lowry ‏@MichaelRLowry 9h9 hours ago
Main development region SSTs about average for the week. Waters ahead of #91L a hair above
Quoting 517. weathermanwannabe:

Will note that we are all exited about the start of the Atlantic Season and enjoy watching and tracking hurricanes. It is horrible when they make landfall on a populated area and cause death and destruction, however, if they do not but do reach major status whether in the Central Atlantic or any other basin for that matter and spin off harmlessly towards the poles (fish storms) or spin-down before impacting a coast, a major tropical storm is one of the most beautiful and powerful sights that Mother Nature can deliver on Earth..................Heat releasing engines for this planet that dwarf anything that Man can create in terms of sheer energy and that have been here waaaaaay before Man and that will be here long after we are gone...................Little Cousins to the Great Red Storm on Jupiter (its a cosmic thing) and similar to the circular-spiral patterns that we observe on other planets in the Solar System (in terms of surface weather activity) and which even mimic the shape of the Milky Way Galaxy and other ones across the Universe..........................An amazing thing to be able to witness them and hoping that they do not come towards your particular neck of the woods.

That is my Ode to Tropical Storms on the eve of June 1st.


Well said.
91L remains pretty unimpressive this morning. Very gradual development, as expected. It's starting to experience the lower shear, but also somewhat lower SSTs, so we'll see how it does with that. Looks like recon will be a go unless it really struggles today.
Morning blog activity is more lively than normal...We must definitely be getting closer to hurricane season :).Honestly it feels as though it started already and with the potential of yet another storm late next week the season will be into full swing.The MJO is expected to pay a visit to our basin come late June and that is when we could see a classic western caribbean system.
Quoting 517. weathermanwannabe:

Will note that we are all exited about the start of the Atlantic Season and enjoy watching and tracking hurricanes. It is horrible when they make landfall on a populated area and cause death and destruction, however, if they do not but do reach major status whether in the Central Atlantic or any other basin for that matter and spin off harmlessly towards the poles (fish storms) or spin-down before impacting a coast, a major tropical storm is one of the most beautiful and powerful sights that Mother Nature can deliver on Earth..................Heat releasing engines for this planet that dwarf anything that Man can create in terms of sheer energy and that have been here waaaaaay before Man and that will be here long after we are gone...................Little Cousins to the Great Red Storm on Jupiter (its a cosmic thing) and similar to the circular-spiral patterns that we observe on other planets in the Solar System (in terms of surface weather activity) and which even mimic the shape of the Milky Way Galaxy and other ones across the Universe..........................An amazing thing to be able to witness them and hoping that they do not come towards your particular neck of the woods.

That is my Ode to Tropical Storms on the eve of June 1st.


Well, we took the opposite track - heat absorbing and not releasing. Slow but steady was our approach . . .
Here is the update from NHC:


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with the low pressure area located
between Bermuda and the Bahamas continues to show signs of
organization, and the circulation of the low has become a little
better defined overnight. Environmental conditions are generally
conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form later today
or Saturday while this system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. All
interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North
Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
low this afternoon. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this disturbance will be issued by 3 PM EDT this afternoon. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO Header FZNT01 KWBC.
Slowly headed towards the lower shear off the SE Coast and warm SST's of the Gulf Stream and trying to establish an anticyclone overhead......................late-Saturday and Sunday should help with determining if it can actually develop into a TS before landfall:




Quoting 487. HurricaneAndre:

With the strong MJO coming, it's possible
We have our first 16 day model prediction for a hurricane to strike Florida for the 2016 season, congradulations Largo!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

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The requested URL could not be retrieved

???
The current shear is still keeping the disturbance in check; not much difference in these two Buoy readings (closet ones to 91L)  from yesterday morning to today in terms of pressure or wind speed readings:
East of Bahamas:
NDBC
Location: 27.517N 71.483W
Date: Fri, 27 May 2016 12:10:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (160°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.95 in
Air Temperature: 79.0 F
Dew Point: 74.1 F
Water Temperature: 78.8 F

Due South of Bermuda (Further East of the Bahamas Buoy)


NDBC
Location: 27.537N 62.945W
Date: Fri, 27 May 2016 11:50:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (110°) at 15.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Average Wave Period: 5.1 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SE (130°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.14 in and rising
Air Temperature: 78.1 F
Dew Point: 70.2 F
Water Temperature: 77.9 F
Quoting 525. weathermanwannabe:

Slowly headed towards the lower shear off the SE Coast and warm SST's of the Gulf Stream and trying to establish an anticyclone overhead......................late-Saturday and Sunday should help with determining if it can actually develop into a TS before landfall:







At this point...it is a huge rain maker....hoping the predicted under 2" is where it stops...Charleston has not completely recovered from the flood back in October...many trees are still in a weakened state...
Wow, see that Teas had a little bit of rain last night. Up to 16 inches in some places, that is impressive.
Nice am vis shots coming in with the sunrise; once the shear drops over the next 48, it should be able to consolidate but it currently has quite a ways to go:





Quoting 527. 3SeaHorses:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

ERROR

The requested URL could not be retrieved

???


Try again - worked for me
531. weathermanwannabe

WU mail
Quoting 501. MZT:

Even if it spins up to be a small class 1 hurricane that isn't a big deal to most folks on the shore, who see these often. Althugh we'll probably see some news stories about people who got too adventurous in the rough surf on the weekend.


While most of us here on the coast are more than prepared for a storm when it comes by this is one we particularly don't want to ramp up just yet. What you forgot to take into account is that Charleston suffered a severe flood just a few months ago...a plethora of trees are still in a weakened state...more than 4-5 inches of rain would bring them down without wind....I would prefer the predicted less than 2 inches of rain with winds under 45 mph at this point....
Quoting 532. daddyjames:



Try again - worked for me


I couldn't get it either....and I did a copy and paste

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The following error was encountered while trying to retrieve the URL: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html


Access Denied.

Access control configuration prevents your request from being allowed at this time. Please contact your service provider if you feel this is incorrect.

Your cache administrator is woc@noaa.gov.



Generated Fri, 27 May 2016 12:59:45 GMT by ipv6-proxy (squid)
And finally as to 91L, here is the current synoptic environment at the surface, mid-levels, and upper levels.  Notice the "safe pocket" the disturbance is currently in but pretty boxed in by ULLs on all sides including that Tutt cell currently draped between it and the GA/SC Coast. As that particular Tutt cell retrogrades, it should give the disturbance a little more breathing room as it approaches the coast.  Will also note that it is not quite fully detached and still under the pretty strong, and shear producing, influence of the North Atlantic tutt cell  now due east of New England but almost there:

In a nutshell, NHC is right on the money (the models) that this disturbance is not in a best environment to support much more than a tropical storm, at best, before it impacts the US.

Surface:


Mid:


Upper:
 
Bouncin out for a bit...BBL when the next updates come out....later Nash, Taz, WMWB




Water Vapor...

I would say 91L gets classified when Recon goes in there this afternoon
Quoting 536. tiggeriffic:



I couldn't get it either....and I did a copy and paste

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The requested URL could not be retrieved



The following error was encountered while trying to retrieve the URL: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html


Access Denied.

Access control configuration prevents your request from being allowed at this time. Please contact your service provider if you feel this is incorrect.

Your cache administrator is woc@noaa.gov.



Generated Fri, 27 May 2016 12:59:45 GMT by ipv6-proxy (squid)


Working for me here.
It's raining in Carbondale right now. The Bushes (yes, I named them Walker, Herbert Walker, and Jeb) are getting a good soaking.
543. V26R
Does anyone know if the NHC has tasked a fly by of 91L yet?
Not a good night to sleep in Houston last night. Heavy rain beating on the roof most of the night with lightning/boom-boom almost continuous; high winds; cell phone warnings going off every 30min or so along with house alarms; electricity off and on with computer rebooting, etc,etc. I think I need to find a cave somewhere and hide!
Good Morning
Quoting 540. Hurricanes101:

I would say 91L gets classified when Recon goes in there this afternoon


Most likely, yes. We should have TD2 as long as it is closed off.
The superbug that doctors have been dreading just reached the U.S

For the first time, researchers have found a person in the United States carrying bacteria resistant to antibiotics of last resort, an alarming development that the top U.S. public health official says could mean "the end of the road" for antibiotics.

You will hear about this on the news., so some background here.

It is not the first time this bacteria has been found in humans, it is the first incidence in the US. Any information about it (like in Wikipedia: Carbapenem-resistant enterobacteriaceae) has been from other countries around the world.

This really sucks, but was only a matter of time.

Essentially, there now exist bacteria (many different species) that are completely resistant to every known antibiotic available to us.
The bacteria found in the US patient was E. coli (commonly found within our gut) but resistance has been detected in other types of bacteria as well..
The antibiotic of last resort was colistin. It is "last resort" because it causes severe damage to the kidneys in humans.

Healthy people usually do not get infections, but it will become prevalent in hospital acquired infections. Because the bacteria are resistant to all known antibiotics, up to 50% of people that get infected die. This is a game changer, and it will spread.

Additional information can be found at the CDC: Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae in Healthcare Settings, Proactive Efforts by U.S. Federal Agencies Enable Early Detection of New Antibiotic Resistance and Antibiotic / Antimicrobial Resistance.

Edit: added some additional information, and corrected some statements
Quoting 543. V26R:

Does anyone know if the NHC has tasked a fly by of 91L yet?


One is expected to go out by 11AM EDT today:

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA....NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
FIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 27/1800Z A. 28/1130Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202 CYCLONE
C. 27/1500Z C. 27/0830Z
D. 28.0N 74.0W D. 30.0N 76.0W
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2130Z E. 28/1100Z TO 28/1630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
549. V26R
Thanks WxLogic!
I'm doing something about how many Atlantic hurricane landfalls there will be this year, feel free to quote a answer to me!

Quoting 546. nash36:



Most likely, yes. We should have TD2 as long as it is closed off.

And I agree with you there nash.


Clear spin near 28 N and 73 W

And there are thunderstorms forming around the center of the storm
Water Temperature Map

553. V26R
Really does look like its trying its best to get its act together. Would be really surprised if the NHC did not classify this sometime today!



Quoting 551. Famoguy1234:



Clear spin near 28 N and 73 W

And there are thunderstorms forming around the center of the storm
One comment on this subject and then I'll leave it. Trump is saying he wants regulations on how we drill for oil to be slashed and burned and has said he intends to open up much more Federal land for drilling. Hey maybe we can catch the Arctic Sea on fire or vastly pollute a pristine water source. Regulations on so many vital environmental issues have been cut drastically state after state controlled by Republican legislators. These politicians, and it's on both sides often, don't serve us nor do they have anything close to our best interests in mind.
Quoting 554. DeepSeaRising:

One comment on this subject and then I'll leave it. Trump is saying he wants regulations on how we drill for oil to be slashed and burned and has said he intends to open up much more Federal land for drilling. Hey maybe we can catch the Arctic Sea on fire or vastly pollute a pristine water source. Regulations on so many vital environmental issues have been cut drastically state after state controlled by Republican legislators. These politicians, and it's on both sides often, don't serve us nor do they have anything close to our best interests in mind.


That is your comment for the day ;)
Quoting 554. DeepSeaRising:

One comment on this subject and then I'll leave it. Trump is saying he wants regulations on how we drill for oil to be slashed and burned and has said he intends to open up much more Federal land for drilling. Hey maybe we can catch the Arctic Sea on fire or vastly pollute a pristine water source. Regulations on so many vital environmental issues have been cut drastically state after state controlled by Republican legislators. These politicians, and it's on both sides often, don't serve us nor do they have anything close to our best interests in mind.


Sorry, I have to comment on this, because I agree. The left is like, "Ohhhh death everything is being ruined we shall tax everything to death and take total control mwahahaha they know nothing about historic patterns PERFECT!" Then the right is like, "OHHHH so they know nothing about patterns and hate taxes ALRIGHT ruin everything!"
Quoting 551. Famoguy1234:



Clear spin near 28 N and 73 W

And there are thunderstorms forming around the center of the storm


This spells trouble for anywhere from Georgia to NC.

558. V26R
Including the Northeast, but one thing is that its has been extremely dry up here,
So the rain is really needed, just not in one big dousing tho!



Quoting 557. 62901IL:



This spells trouble for anywhere from Georgia to NC.


As of 13Z not much at the SFC ... winds ranging from 15 to 20kts with the usual higher gusts in the TSTM.



91L has a decent spin @ 850MB which hasn't fully worked itself down to the SFC due to the light shear environment but holding itself so far.

Quoting 559. WxLogic:

As of 13Z not much at the SFC ... winds ranging from 15 to 20kts with the usual higher gusts in the TSTM.



91L has a decent spin @ 850MB which hasn't fully worked itself down to the SFC due to the light shear environment but holding itself so far.




It's gonna be a slow process. It has about two-three days to get it together.
Quoting 554. DeepSeaRising:

One comment on this subject and then I'll leave it. Trump is saying he wants regulations on how we drill for oil to be slashed and burned and has said he intends to open up much more Federal land for drilling. Hey maybe we can catch the Arctic Sea on fire or vastly pollute a pristine water source. Regulations on so many vital environmental issues have been cut drastically state after state controlled by Republican legislators. These politicians, and it's on both sides often, don't serve us nor do they have anything close to our best interests in mind.


i think that is a topic for other day not now and when we have some in like 91L whats keep the GW and politics out of the blog thanks
Quoting 561. Grothar:




Still not blobby enough to warrant an alert?
NHC thinks once the future Bonnie comes ashore she may stick around awhile,could be some heavy rainfall regardless of how strong she may or may not get..might be some flooding concerns where she sticks around for awhile
Don't know if it's my I trained eye, but 91L doesn't look great at all this morning
567. vis0

Quoting 417. DeepSeaRising:

Going to end with close to 25-30 tornadoes on the day and over 400 reports for the day. Was always going to be complicated today. To call this a bust is laughable. The moderate risk was warranted, but the area was off and the tornado percentages was off, but still an outbreak, just not a large outbreak. Overall they did a really good job for a really tough forecast.
Agree.

Remember due to the New Atmosphere v2.0a (be it aGw or GW, its first leaning toward chaotic changes, then in a generation just warmer).
This Atmos v2.0a is making it more difficult to use the collected data of the "old" naturally developed  atmosphere in WxModel predictions. 
Notice of the last 2 severe outbreaks the energy is still there IF NOT MORE. 
The thought of it being  "bust" (incorrect thought in my mind) comes from the energy being redistributed by nature.  Remember the last so called bust had 3-4 times more hail/larger, more straight winds and more rain.  Look at what happened 2 days ago a low level day went moderate even to have a long lived super-cell all by itself taping 20%?, 30%, 50%? into the new atmos v2.0a.

Therefore when you read of a moderate area for severe or TS, REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA cause man influenced atmospheric conditions has thrown a monkey wrench into predictions. This i've stared since before i joined WxU 6/14 years ago, as in first we experience global warming schizo, THEN just warming.


IDEA to lower crashing (servers or more likely too many/ incorrect script usages) during busy weather days.

Repeat - idea posted 3 years ago, create a wunderground ("display") version.
What would a WxU-display consist of?

Its for lurking, as is when people go window display watching and do not enter the store.  Therefore the brand is seen (like an AD)  but the store saves on AC, wear n tear on; floor, elevators, escalators.  Yet if regulars or newbies like what they see they'll come back when the store is less full.

When servers notice a sudden rise in people on its servers it presents a
new link that hovers near the page index/selector that reads
Wxunderground-dip and explains what that "dip" URL means.

 Wundergroumd-display (NOT REAL, MADE UP URL= wiunderground.com.dip) allows people to read comments but at the minimalist format as in text format and simple linked image ADS not gifs, html5, flash. IMPORTANT that when someone signed in clicks on that THEY ARE STILL SIGNED IN but cannot plus, comment do anything, ONLY read and click on simple static  image ADS (open in another tab, maybe the full flash AD or direct to what the ADs CONTENT IS POINTING TO). 
In this manner they can scroll through pages load faster and if the find something of interest to comment on THEN click "WxU.com normal" and load the page they are on (as if a "intelligent refresh" only  without having to "call" for a full cache reload, saving at least 60% as to server/script re-flows).  Once member leaves a comment they can re-click (MADE UP URL-example) WxU.com.dip and wxu's time limit can clean out after 3-5 minutes that unnecessary load since that member is back on the WxU.com.dip page style/format.



i know there are programs that do what i just posted but that adds to script errors, its best that (minimalist display) be implemented from the sites server than users.
i know WxU or any site makes most money when its busy but if when its busiest a site crashes then we all lose.



BACK TO SEVERE IN THE MIDWEST, TROPICS NEAR BY and other weather events that need to be shared from throughout this planet so the human family can stay in touch with what is going o with their home.
Rapido earlier this morning......



Quoting 547. daddyjames:

The superbug that doctors have been dreading just reached the U.S

For the first time, researchers have found a person in the United States carrying bacteria resistant to antibiotics of last resort, an alarming development that the top U.S. public health official says could mean "the end of the road" for antibiotics.

You will hear about this on the news., so some background here.

It is not the first time this bacteria has been found in humans, it is the first incidence in the US. Any information about it (like in Wikipedia: Carbapenem-resistant enterobacteriaceae) has been from other countries around the world.

This really sucks, but was only a matter of time.

Essentially, there now exist bacteria (many different species) that are completely resistant to every known antibiotic available to us.
The bacteria found in the US patient was E. coli (commonly found within our gut) but resistance has been detected in other types of bacteria as well..
The antibiotic of last resort was colistin. It is "last resort" because it causes severe damage to the kidneys in humans.

Healthy people usually do not get CRE infections, but it will become prevalent in hospital acquired infections. Because the bacteria are resistant to all known antibiotics, 50% of people that get infected die. This is a game changer, and it will spread.

Additional information can be found at the CDC: Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae in Healthcare Settings and Proactive Efforts by U.S. Federal Agencies Enable Early Detection of New Antibiotic Resistance.
With the way we constantly misuse antibiotics in humans and animals, this type of evolution is not at all surprising.
Quoting 566. JrWeathermanFL:

Don't know if it's my I trained eye, but 91L doesn't look great at all this morning


91L looks great this AM
Quoting 565. LargoFl:

NHC thinks once the future Bonnie comes ashore she may stick around awhile,could be some heavy rainfall regardless of how strong she may or may not get..might be some flooding concerns where she sticks around for awhile


That's our biggest concern. Really need that shortwave to erode the ridge and kick it out to the NE. The ECMWF is the only progressive solution thus far. It kicks it out pretty quickly. All of the other ones have it meandering.
27/1145 UTC 27.9N 72.9W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic


AL, 91, 2016052712, , BEST, 0, 276N, 729W, 30, 1009, LO
Quoting 560. nash36:



It's gonna be a slow process. It has about two-three days to get it together.


It will be slow for sure...

Waters as of 26 @ 00Z are warm enough for a little bit of intensification but cool enough to keep in check as well as other atmospheric variables.

Quoting 573. WxLogic:



It will be slow for sure...

Waters as of 26 @ 00Z are warm enough for a little bit of intensification but cool enough to keep in check as well as other atmospheric variables.




Water temps are marginal for development. That is one of the main factors holding this system back. Really only the Gulf Stream has water temperatures to support a decent tropical system.

575. OKsky
Quoting 547. daddyjames:

The superbug that doctors have been dreading just reached the U.S

For the first time, researchers have found a person in the United States carrying bacteria resistant to antibiotics of last resort, an alarming development that the top U.S. public health official says could mean "the end of the road" for antibiotics.




.....and if our economy was somehow as pregnant with antibiotics as it is with oil, people would call you a hoax perpetrating fear monger.
Quoting 566. JrWeathermanFL:

Don't know if it's my I trained eye, but 91L doesn't look great at all this morning


568 shows that the circulation is better defined this morning. Overall 91L is very close to being classified.
Quoting 574. Sfloridacat5:



Water temps are marginal for development. That is one of the main factors holding this system back. Really only the Gulf Stream has water temperatures to support a decent tropical system.


Should have a chance if it takes its sweet time to traverse the Gulf Stream.
Quoting 577. WxLogic:



Should have a chance if it takes its sweet time to traverse the Gulf Stream.


Yeah, I think we'll most likely end up with a Tropical Storm when all is said and done. But it's going to be very slow to develop.
Quoting 576. Hurricanes101:



568 shows that the circulation is better defined this morning. Overall 91L is very close to being classified.


Convectively lacking but that's about it
Quoting 569. SouthTampa:

With the way we constantly misuse antibiotics in humans and animals, this type of evolution is not at all surprising.


No, it wasn't. Scientists have been predicting this would happen for a while now. Sad thing is, most people won't comprehend the seriousness of it until a loved one is directly impacted. By then, it is too late.
We are entering an age where doctors, once an infection develops, literally will not be able to do anything. Its hard to comprehend.

Kinda like something else discussed on this blog . . .


Starting to look rather nice!
Quoting 575. OKsky:



.....and if our economy was somehow as pregnant with antibiotics as it is with oil, people would call you a hoax perpetrating fear monger.


I agree. The parallels of this and the "debate" about climate change, and what can be done about it, are the same. Just not as public and not as vitriolic. Somewhere I am sure that some pharmaceutical executive . . . . :)

Edit: LOL - I love your new look!
if 91L get named today wish is a good ch it well look for Tropical storm watch too go up today has well this well all so be the 1st land fall of 2016 in the USA
Quoting 580. daddyjames:



No, it wasn't. Scientists have been predicting this would happen for a while now. Sad thing is, most people won't comprehend the seriousness of it until a loved one is directly impacted. By then, it is too late.
We are entering an age where doctors, once an infection develops, literally will not be able to do anything. Its hard to comprehend.

Kinda like something else discussed on this blog . . .

Back to the good (not really) old days before antibiotics.
wind shear is vary low i think we could get at lest 50 to 70mph winds be for land fall may be 2nd hurricane of the season?

We might see a tropical storm or depression later today. Invest 91-L already has winds of 35 mph , so it might skip depression status and become a tropical storm.
Comment 585 crude and tasteless although quite entertaining. Wow. I just described the Donald. On a more appropriate note, its too early for this and I think once 91 reaches the Gulf Stream there is a possibility that it could surprise us. Never underestimate a tropical entity such as this. Just continue to monitor.
when did we get the A storm., i swear i cant remember
Quoting 589. FyrtleMyrtle:

when did we get the A storm., i swear i cant remember


we had are 1st hurricane back in JAN thats why where up too the B storm all so model runs seem too be hitting at some in by june 10 for S FL
Quoting 588. K8eCane:

Comment 585 crude and tasteless although quite entertaining. Wow. I just described the Donald. On a more appropriate note, its too early for this and I think once 91 reaches the Gulf Stream there is a possibility that it could surprise us. Never underestimate a tropical entity such as this. Just continue to monitor.


We certainly don't need one of those "we didn't see that coming" in terms of strengthening. It has happened too often in the past, since we are still awful in intensity forecasting.
592. OKsky
Quoting 589. FyrtleMyrtle:

when did we get the A storm., i swear i cant remember


It was back in January.
Quoting 589. FyrtleMyrtle:

when did we get the A storm., i swear i cant remember

January
Quoting 589. FyrtleMyrtle:

when did we get the A storm., i swear i cant remember


January

Edit: let's see how many answers we can get!
Quoting 588. K8eCane:

Comment 585 crude and tasteless although quite entertaining. Wow. I just described the Donald. On a more appropriate note, its too early for this and I think once 91 reaches the Gulf Stream there is a possibility that it could surprise us. Never underestimate a tropical entity such as this. Just continue to monitor.
Just ignore that person because they bring negative energy to the blog.I personally like to get to know who I'm blogging with and it is always nice to see how others are doing.It brings personality to the comment section of WU and is the reason why people come back.Hell some people have met outside this blog because of the many interactions that we have here.

opps! did not mean to plus comment 585
Quoting 592. OKsky:



It was back in January.



I gotta say I love your avatar! Remembering Camelot....
Quoting 589. FyrtleMyrtle:

when did we get the A storm., i swear i cant remember

Hurricane Alex, January 13-15, an 85 mph category 1 near the Azores.
Quoting 595. washingtonian115:

Just ignore that person because they bring negative energy to the blog.I personally like to get to know who I'm blogging with and it is always nice to see how others are doing.It brings personality to the comment section of WU and is the reason why people come back.Hell some people have met outside this blog because of the many interactions that we have here.


Yep. I had dinner with StormW many years ago (2006 I believe), and it was a great evening of geeking out. Lol.
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

click image for loop



And their off.
Link
Hurricane hunters have taken off from Kessler Air Force Base, heading for the invest now.
1st we need too see if this has a W wind and then we need too see if this has TS winds all ready if it dos this 91L will be named today

so thats two things we need too keep a eye on for this recon


all so welcome too the 1st recon of hurricane season
Quoting 563. daddyjames:



Still not blobby enough to warrant an alert?


Nope. It's still a mess. I would be embarrassed to blobify it at this time.
Hurricane Hunters are crossing Mobile Alabama now.
606. MahFL
Quoting 543. V26R:

Does anyone know if the NHC has tasked a fly by of 91L yet?


HH are en-route to 91L.
One thing is for sure the models are not very excited about this system.
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 15:09Z
Date: May 27, 2016
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05

15:10:00Z 30.800N 87.167W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,018 meters
(~ 26,306 feet) - 400 meters
(~ 1,312 feet) From 249° at 16 knots
(From the WSW at ~ 18.4 mph) -23.0°C
(~ -9.4°F) -27.0°C
(~ -16.6°F) 17 knots
(~ 19.6 mph) - - - -

At 15:00:30Z (first observation), the observation was 8 statue miles (13 km) to the E (96°) from Mobile, AL, USA.

At 15:10:00Z (last observation), the observation was 25 statue miles (41 km) to the N (6°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.
What is the thing south of 91L?
This is no different, in terms of timing, as to what we normally see in the Fall in terms of trofs and hurricanes.....................You can see the trof approaching from the West but this system will not respond/turn out to sea unless is has some stacking (good looking TS) to feel the influence. As we are talking about a weak system right now, it is probably not going to turn out to sea in the classic sense unless it gets a real groove going on Sunday. 

I am thinking that it is going to come ashore dropping lots of rain before it it absorbed by the trof (whether over land or just off-shore); have to see where the trof is and how weak or strong the disturbance is on Sunday IMHO:


Quoting 536. tiggeriffic:



I couldn't get it either....and I did a copy and paste

ERROR

The requested URL could not be retrieved



The following error was encountered while trying to retrieve the URL: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html


Access Denied.

Access control configuration prevents your request from being allowed at this time. Please contact your service provider if you feel this is incorrect.

Your cache administrator is woc@noaa.gov.



Generated Fri, 27 May 2016 12:59:45 GMT by ipv6-proxy (squid)



It could be due to your browser or your service provider. For the browser, I would google a solution. if it is your service provider, you need to contact them to figure out what is going on.
I use Chrome, and have no issue.
Quoting 604. Grothar:



Nope. It's still a mess. I would be embarrassed to blobify it at this time.


I agree - definitely no blobbiness to be found at the moment. Little one is disappointed.
Quoting 610. weathermanwannabe:

This is no different, in terms of timing, as to what we normally see in the Fall in terms of trofs and hurricanes.....................You can see the trof approaching from the West but this system will not respond/turn out to sea unless is has some stacking (good looking TS) to feel the influence. As we are talking about a weak system right now, it is probably not going to turn out to sea in the classic sense unless it gets a real groove going on Sunday.

I am thinking that it is going to come ashore dropping lots of rain before it it absorbed by the trof (whether over land or just off-shore); have to see where the trof is and how weak or strong the disturbance is on Sunday IMHO:





That water vapor loop really shows a lot of dry air out in front of the system. That in combination with marginal water temperatures should keep this system from developing too quickly.
And WOW, that convection that exploded over Texas makes the Tropical System look like nothing.
The HH are getting their early work out this year.This is the part I look forward to the most during hurricane season which is getting data from the HH on a system in real time.It will definitely be interesting to see what they report on this afternoon.
Quoting 568. nrtiwlnvragn:

Rapido earlier this morning......

<



You said "rapido", HA HA HA !!!!!



This is a more challenging hurricane season outlook than most because it is difficult to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development. The outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2016 hurricane season:

10-16 Named Storms, which includes Alex in January
4-8 Hurricanes, which includes Alex in January
1-4 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-140% of the median, which includes Alex in January
The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. These expected ranges are centered near the 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
Quoting 616. Sfloridacat5:



That water vapor loop really shows a lot of dry air out in front of the system. That in combination with marginal water temperatures should keep this system from developing too quickly.
Agree; a rainmaker for sure but not a high end storm. I am also looking at the current movement of the whole area. If it stays really weak, it could come ashore further South in Georgia or near Jacksonville if the ridge to the North drops down a little bit more:


%uFFFD%uFFFD
Quoting 617. washingtonian115:

The HH are getting their early work out this year.This is the part I look forward to the most during hurricane season which is getting data from the HH on a system in real time.It will definitely be interesting to see what they report on this afternoon.


My best guess is they report back a broad mess. No closed low.
622. vis0
For infotainment purposes only (blend of 3 sats)


Quoting 609. all4hurricanes:

What is the thing south of 91L?


There is a trough of low pressure moving in conjunction with 91L.
Either that or it is the Bahamas.

Either one correctly answers your question.
Quoting 616. Sfloridacat5:



That water vapor loop really shows a lot of dry air out in front of the system. That in combination with marginal water temperatures should keep this system from developing too quickly.
And WOW, that convection that exploded over Texas makes the Tropical System look like nothing.


16 inches of rain in some locations in Texas last night. Training of thunderstorms over the same area all night long essentially.
Quoting 624. Patrap:




Center of circulation appears to be a bit further west than depicted on the models. ;)
NOAA Hurricane Awareness Tour

By: Portlight, 11:40 AM CDT on May 19, 2016


As we approach the beginning of the Atlantic 2016 Hurricane Season which begins June 1st, we will take a look at the Hurricane Hunters.

NOAA and the US Air Force Reserve both fly planes into the Storms to get the data required to predict the Storms path, strength direction and much, much more.

Right now the prevailing winds and cloud pattern over Tallahassee is to the W-NW; I imagine it is about the same near Jacksonville this morning.
Torcon of five for Texas and SPC doesn't even have Texas under a slight risk?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I live just East outside of Pflugerville, TX about 25 NE of downtown Austin. The initial supercell that stagnated over the area rapidly intensified unlike any storm I've seen in the seven years I've lived in the area. To say the light show that we had last night was amazing would be an understatement. I would love to see a cumulative lighting strike count for the four or five hours the system was in place. I'm guessing between fifty and one hundred thousand strikes. What is mind blowing is that in my area we received between a quarter and a half an inch of rain, yet 15 miles to the South East, some places received 12" plus. Further to the East, some locations received as much as 17 inches in just a few hours time.

Quoting 625. daddyjames:



16 inches of rain in some locations in Texas last night. Training of thunderstorms over the same area all night long essentially.
AF307 Mission #01 into INVEST
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

As of 15:40 UTC May 27, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 30.55°N 84.27°W
Bearing: 90° at 310 kt
Altitude: 8005 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 11 kt at 16°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A





You can see the LLC in this loop basically a few hundred miles due East of Cape Kennedy right around 28N - 74W:





Quoting 609. all4hurricanes:

What is the thing south of 91L?
That's the REAL 91L -- the one everyone is loving to death is just a decoy.