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Tropical wave bringing heavy rain to northern Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2010

A tropical wave near 18N, 60W is entering the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands and is generating some disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds. The strong upper-level winds are associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. As the wave progresses west to west-northwest through Tuesday, thunderstorm activity will increase, due to interaction with the upper low. The rains from these thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday. The upper low will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the the wave on Monday and Tuesday. No development of the wave is likely until at least Thursday, when it will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. At that time, shear is expected to drop below 20 knots, and the wave has the potential to develop. However, none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I expect that this wave will eventually enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of tropical wave entering the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. SpFox
Quoting Grothar:


Summers (wet season) from May through October are hot, humid, and wet with average high temperatures of 86–90 °F (30–32 °C) and lows of 71–76 °F (22–24 °C). During this period, more than half of summer days may bring afternoon or evening thunderstorms.[35]



Wow that´s nice
2002. Grothar
Quoting msgambler:
been up since 1:30am after 3 hours sleep. I'll take a nap later. Having blood pressure problems this weekend.


You are lucky in a way. At my age they are not sure I even have a blood pressure anymore!! Seriously, take care of that. Hope it gets under control.
Lived in London for a couple of years as well, but wanted to come home because it was too big ann there were hardly any trees or grass lol!
2004. Grothar
Quoting Grothar:


Lived in London and spent some time at the Universtity of Edinbugh, lived off Holyrood, of Canongate. Mostly in Norway and Germany


Woops, forgot the r. Since I am multi-lingual I dream in different languages and it takes me awhile to remember where I am. LOL
Quoting Grothar:


Woops, forgot the r. Since I am multi-lingual I dream in different languages and it takes me awhile to remember where I am. LOL


Lol! I didn't even notice that you missed out the r in Edinburgh until you said that you had!
Last night we had a wonderful display of electric blue noctulicent clouds streaking across the sky.It was amazing!
Not really due to blood pressure. Broke by neck a few years ago and had to have rods inserted in my neck. The rods compress on the blood vess. and cause high blood pressure and bad headaches. The meds are to thin the blood to relieve pressure for the headaches more than anything. But everones concern is appreciated very much.
2008. Grothar
Quoting msgambler:
Not really due to blood pressure. Broke by neck a few years ago and had to have rods inserted in my neck. The rods compress on the blood vess. and cause high blood pressure and bad headaches. The meds are to thin the blood to relieve pressure for the headaches more than anything. But everones concern is appreciated very much.


I don't believe it. I had a lamenectomy 5 years ago. I have the titanium plates, too. I have the headaches all the time. I found out I cannot lie on my left side, only might right. It is terrible. My neck had been broken for awhile and never knew it.
rain suddenly turned extremely heavy here.. maybe the first thunderstorm in 5 years lol!
2010. Dakster
I see we have good and bad news on the oil leak.

Hopefully Patrap will get us the skinny on it. Cap seems to beholding, but there is oil starting to seep up from the area...

Link
Mine was just before Katrina and I can't lay on my left side either. I had 5 levels, C3 to C7
Quoting msgambler:
Not really due to blood pressure. Broke by neck a few years ago and had to have rods inserted in my neck. The rods compress on the blood vess. and cause high blood pressure and bad headaches. The meds are to thin the blood to relieve pressure for the headaches more than anything. But everones concern is appreciated very much.


I know how you feel. I have one long steel rod from T-1 to L-4. Or top to bottom. I didn't break anything but had a bad case of scoliosis. But now the bottom joint they left open wore out. So its painful and stiff at best. But when that sciatic nerve gets pinched off. YEOWWW! Just love getting old. :)
2013. Grothar
Quoting 2010hurricaneseason:
rain suddenly turned extremely heavy here.. maybe the first thunderstorm in 5 years lol!


See, one must be careful of what one wishes for!
2014. Dakster
Quoting 2010hurricaneseason:
rain suddenly turned extremely heavy here.. maybe the first thunderstorm in 5 years lol!


Where is "here"?

To grothar and msgambler - I can only imagine your pain and frustration. Hope you both find some relief.
2015. scott39
Is 97L tagged yet?
Morning Daks, They say thats gas not oil but we are still waiting on the tests to confirm.
2017. Grothar
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I know how you feel. I have one long steel rod from T-1 to L-4. Or top to bottom. I didn't break anything but had a bad case of scoliosis. But now the bottom joint they left open wore out. So its painful and stiff at best. But when that sciatic nerve gets pinched off. YEOWWW! Just love getting old. :)



I am not laughing, homeless, because I know what pain is, but we are on a weather blog and we are all talking about our steel rods and titanium plates. It is more like medi-chat. LOL They must think we are a bunch of old foggies.
2018. Grothar
Quoting scott39:
Is 97L tagged yet?


Yes, look back a few posts. It is the one over the Leewards.
2019. Dakster
Thanks, msgambler...

Pray it is gas, I was hoping we were done with the oil release and could now focus 100% on the oil cleanup.
YW Daks, let's still hope so.
2021. scott39
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, look back a few posts. It is the one over the Leewards.
I wonder where the models on it to track? Everyone asleep but us? LOL
2022. Grothar
Quoting Dakster:


Where is "here"?

To grothar and msgambler - I can only imagine your pain and frustration. Hope you both find some relief.


Hey Dak. You're here, too! Thanks, living with pain is terrible. That is why I get on here so much. I get informed about the weather, but you guys make us laugh a lot as well. It's the reason I joke around so much.
Quoting Grothar:



I am not laughing, homeless, because I know what pain is, but we are on a weather blog and we are all talking about our steel rods and titanium plates. It is more like medi-chat. LOL They must think we are a bunch of old foggies.


Lol. They may be right. :) But laughter is truly the best medicine.
Quoting scott39:
I wonder where the models on it to track? Everyone asleep but us? LOL
Because we're all in pain and old....LOL
2025. Grothar
Quoting scott39:
I wonder where the models on it to track? Everyone asleep but us? LOL


The earlier NAM model had it moving WNW into the Turks and Caicos Islands into the Bahamas and, dare I say it............South Florida. I think it is a little early to tell. That weak ULL above it may divert the course a little.
2026. Grothar
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. They may be right. :) But laughter is truly the best medicine.


We have had some good times on here, haven't we homeless?? I miss tornadodude, though. Nice kid. You gave me some laughs last year.
Good Morning

Blog Update

Tagging an Invest

Quoting msgambler:
Because we're all in pain and old....LOL


SmileyCentral.com
2029. Grothar
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. They may be right. :) But laughter is truly the best medicine.


I miss AwakeinMaryland, too. She was the sweetest thing. Just got the biggest kick out of her.
2030. scott39
Quoting msgambler:
Because we're all in pain and old....LOL
I dont experience pain myself but i watch my wife have to everyday, and thats painful. She has had a Brain Anurysm and suffers from MIgrains and also has Lupus. Shes a fighter. I have grown to have a deep respect for people in pain, and how much of a fighter she is.
2031. Grothar
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

Tagging an Invest



Hey Weather!!! In case some of you don't know who he is, he is one of the top bloggers on here who answers all of our questions on the tropics. Did this one surprise you? I told them the other night, but no one would believe me. LOL
Quoting Grothar:


I miss AwakeinMaryland, too. She was the sweetest thing. Just got the biggest kick out of her.


Yes, you make me laugh too. :) And I haven't seen them around either. Yeah AIM was funny too.
2033. Grothar
Quoting homelesswanderer:


SmileyCentral.com


Like that one. If something is funny I always write, TOTROFL. GeoffWPB asked me what that meant, and I told him, Too Old To Roll On Floor Laughing. I would probably never get up.

By the way, did you see me latest pictures on the my blog. Just click my name at the top and it will go write to it.
2034. Grothar
Quoting scott39:
I dont experience pain myself but i watch my wife have to everyday, and thats painful. She has had a Brain Anurysm and suffers from MIgrains and also has Lupus. Shes a fighter. I have grown to have a deep respect for people in pain, and how much of a fighter she is.


Have had migraines for over 40 years. Terrible pain.
2035. ackee
I see we have 97L on the Navy site dont see it on any of other site still think the wave in central carrb have better chance of being TD#3 OR Bonnie
2036. Grothar
Quoting scott39:
I dont experience pain myself but i watch my wife have to everyday, and thats painful. She has had a Brain Anurysm and suffers from MIgrains and also has Lupus. Shes a fighter. I have grown to have a deep respect for people in pain, and how much of a fighter she is.


Ah I'm sorry. All the crap I've been through with doctors I always said it would be worse if it was a loved one instead of me. She's got to be a strong lady. The migraines alone are terrible. I get those too. You're a good husband. I don't say that lightly. My husband stands by me as well. And I'm not the easiest person to be around sometimes.
2038. scott39
Quoting ackee:
I see we have 97L on the Navy site dont see it on any of other site still think the wave in central carrb have better chance of being TD#3 OR Bonnie
central carribean has no circulation yet--- 97L does
2039. Grothar
Here is our little invest 97L

2040. Grothar
Quoting scott39:
central carribean has no circulation yet--- 97L does


You are right, Here it it.

2041. scott39
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Ah I'm sorry. All the crap I've been through with doctors I always said it would be worse if it was a loved one instead of me. She's got to be a strong lady. The migraines alone are terrible. I get those too. You're a good husband. I don't say that lightly. My husband stands by me as well. And I'm not the easiest person to be around sometimes.
Thanks for the compliment. It is hard sometimes, but I know its harder for her. Good drs are hard to find, when dealing with a chronic problem.
Quoting Grothar:


Like that one. If something is funny I always write, TOTROFL. GeoffWPB asked me what that meant, and I told him, Too Old To Roll On Floor Laughing. I would probably never get up.

By the way, did you see me latest pictures on the my blog. Just click my name at the top and it will go write to it.


You oughta put that pic of you on your avatar. I keep thinking I need to put one of me up. But nobody takes my pic. Lol. And I may have to steal TOTROFL. That's just too perfect! LOL.
There should be a 98L for the C Carib disturbance. Though convection has waned with that feature, it is still more organized than 97L. In addition, there is no evidence of a closed surface circulation with 97L.
2044. scott39
Why arent there tracking models on 97L yet?
2045. XL
Morning all - from a rather wet Grand Cayman. Lots of thunder and lightning for the last 2 hours. Seems to be easing off a little now.
2046. 34chip
Link 97L model runs
2047. Drakoen
2050. scott39
Goodmorning StormW
In before "OMG Xtrap is heading for my house!" LOL
2053. scott39
Will there be a weaking in the High to allow 97L to more N once in the GOM?
Quoting scott39:
Thanks for the compliment. It is hard sometimes, but I know its harder for her. Good drs are hard to find, when dealing with a chronic problem.


Yes I'm not the biggest doctor fan anymore. I can imagine it's hard on the both of you. Every time I find a good doctor they move or retire or become ill themselves. After the last one I really didn't want to find another one. But I knew I had to if my husband doesn't give up on me I guess I shouldn't either. Got a good one for now. Maybe he won't move. He's from here. Ike tried to scare him off but he had one of the only houses in Bridge City that didn't flood. Phew! That was a close one. :)
2055. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Will there be a weaking in the High to allow 97L to more N once in the GOM?


From the Tallahassee,FL. extended discussion....

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE NRN STREAM COMMENCES WITH A
TROUGH OVER WRN MOST STATES...BROAD RIDGING FROM WRN PLAINS EWD TO
WEAK TROFFING OVER ERN STATES. TYPICALLY SUMMERTIME SRN STREAM
PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WITH RISING HEIGHTS...LOW PWATS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS ESE AND STRENGTHENS BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED.
THIS LEADS TO A GRADUAL
WARM UP AS IT PEAKS IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS SAT INTO
MON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF
APPROACHES THE AREA.
BY END OF EXTENDED PERIOD...WRN TROUGH AND
ASSOCD SHORTWAVES NOW ACROSS NE CONUS WHICH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
DOMINANT SRN RIDGE ESE BACK INTO ATLC WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING
RIDGE AND STRONGEST HEIGHT RISES NOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
2056. 10Speed
Quoting msgambler:
Morning Daks, They say thats gas not oil but we are still waiting on the tests to confirm.


If there's gas, there's a leak and a leak means oil too. Gas just has more ability to lift and escape. Oil that is leaking into earthen matter isn't going to rise like it does in water. It's going to contaminate and over saturate underground first.
2057. 10Speed
.
97L models... the red heads are hot :)

2059. Drakoen
Looks like the more favorable environment may exist in the Bahamas.
GFS 00z July 18th Pouch tracking
2060. scott39
Ike-2055 It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
2061. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Ike-2055 It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.


Mobile,AL. has the same tune...

"LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...00Z MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE SAME
TUNE FROM THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO PEAK IN STRENGTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND."

Quoting IKE:


From the Tallahassee,FL. extended discussion....

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE NRN STREAM COMMENCES WITH A
TROUGH OVER WRN MOST STATES...BROAD RIDGING FROM WRN PLAINS EWD TO
WEAK TROFFING OVER ERN STATES. TYPICALLY SUMMERTIME SRN STREAM
PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WITH RISING HEIGHTS...LOW PWATS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS ESE AND STRENGTHENS BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED.
THIS LEADS TO A GRADUAL
WARM UP AS IT PEAKS IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS SAT INTO
MON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF
APPROACHES THE AREA.
BY END OF EXTENDED PERIOD...WRN TROUGH AND
ASSOCD SHORTWAVES NOW ACROSS NE CONUS WHICH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
DOMINANT SRN RIDGE ESE BACK INTO ATLC WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING
RIDGE AND STRONGEST HEIGHT RISES NOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.


Morning Ike. That's about what the Euro been showing for days. Best I could tell their latest run shows low pressure going to SE LA then shifts it west towards Texas with a more organized something going into TX/MX.
2063. Drakoen
2064. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Morning Ike. That's about what the Euro been showing for days. Best I could tell their latest run shows low pressure going to SE LA then shifts it west towards Texas with a more organized something going into TX/MX.


I saw that.

Models haven't really latched on to 97L much...yet. Give it a few runs....might change.
Good Morning Storm, Drak, Homeless, IKE, and and the the rest of the WU gang. I see the leewards T-Wave is now 97L.


Looks like the High try's to pull E. three (3) day's out.
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

Tagging an Invest


Thanks for the informative blog.
Lake Charles being their usual helpful selves.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A BIT LOWER ON TUESDAY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A MOIST
UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM ARK TO GA...BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
WEATHER...WITH A SLT CHC OF RAIN AND AFTN TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD WEAKEN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER EASTERLY
WAVE CROSSING THE GULF WHICH COULD SPELL AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. FOR NOW HOWEVER...MADE FEW CHANGES TO
EXTENDED FCST.
2071. scott39
StormW Where do you put 97L COC?
2073. Drakoen
2075. scott39
Quoting StormW:


Don't know as of yet...still pulling up websites for analysis. Navy ATCF site had it located at 19.1N;62.4W at 2:00 a.m.
Thanks, Is 97L being enhanced by TUTT with convection or is it holding its own?
I still think 97L has little chance of developing over the next 72hrs. There has been little improvement in the structure, and upper level winds remain unfavorable. The burst of convection is probably due to diffluent winds aloft and diurnal maximum.
Quoting IKE:


I saw that.

Models haven't really latched on to 97L much...yet. Give it a few runs....might change.


Yeah. This is the first time this season that ridge is being challenged.
2079. scott39
Quoting futuremet:
I still think 97L has little chance of developing over the next 72hrs. There has been little improvement in the structure, and upper level winds remain unfavorable. The burst of convection is probably due to diffluent winds aloft and diurnal maximum.
and after 72?
2080. scott39
Quoting StormW:


The location of 97L is being enhanced by a diffluent flow aloft, aiding in divergence over 97L. However, with about 20-25 kts of wind shear

Thanks
Quoting scott39:
and after 72?


If it ends up in the Gulf, it might have chance...
2084. scott39
Quoting StormW:


My best guess at a "quickcast" is 19.8N;64.0W
Cant believe Mr. Rookie here, looked at the visible about 20 minutes ago and actually got close to you a few posts back at 20.0N 64.0W Your teachings and others on here make a difference. Thank you, Scott
Kind of Ironic but the Xtrap track could be the exact path that 97L takes . Now wouldn't that be something :)
2088. WxLogic
Good Morning...
2089. gator23
Quoting StormW:


Not likely.

what is likely? Southern track?
Quoting StormW:


Not likely.


Neither was 95L forming into a Tropical Cyclone or even going code red but it did. Good day :)
Good Morning All.........
A new area in the Leeward islands and just north, is now being tracked as 97L. This system will have to be closely watched over next several days as it is likely to enter the Bahamas. More to come soon.

This wave currently has a 20% chance for development. In the near term, shear will likely keep this from developing, but once it gets closer to the Bahamas that begins to drop off, so there is some chance for slow development then. Those in Central and mostly South Florida will want to watch this system as it nears the Bahamas.

If it were to develop, the most likely time would be around Thursday.

This week will likely see an increase in overall activity from the last two weeks, especially the latter half of this week..

The other area in the West Caribbean isn't being tracked as an invest yet, but it may be worth watching if it gets to the Bay of Campeche intact. It also has a 20% chance for development.
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Kind of Ironic but the Xtrap track could be the exact path that 97L takes . Now wouldn't that be something :)


Now its moving west?

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W/65W S OF 21N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE
AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ALSO ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE AS SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 61W-67W.

oh yeah, this is from central florida hurricane site
2097. scott39
So were looking for 2 possible developements around the same time?
2099. gator23
.
2100. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
...HAITI...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE
CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

2101. gator23
Quoting StormW:


gator, I'll have a full update later this a.m. Kinda working on things for the Coast Guard.

then continue your service to America I appreciate it.
2102. scott39
Why does a wave get tagged an Invest?
97L has some very strong sheer that it is about to traverese before it gets to the Bahamas.....I don't see, at the moment, how it could get organized at all over the next 48 hours......However, the wave currently emerging out of Africa is one to watch IMHO as convection is currentily starting to fire and it is headed towards 5 to 10 knots of sheer in the short term.
2104. gator23
NWS Miami doesnt seem to worried about it

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
419 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN FL THIS MORNING WHILE ONE TROPICAL WAVE
PUSHES DEEPER INTO THE GULF AND ANOTHER PUSHES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
AND CLOSER TO FL. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONG EAST FLOW WILL CREATE FAST
MOVING SHRA/TSRA THAT WILL COVER LARGE SWATHS OF REAL ESTATE,
HOWEVER OVERALL COVERAGE WILL NOT BE THAT BIG AND MOST IF NOT ALL
SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF. OPTED TO GO ON THE HIGHER END OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE DAY FOR THIS REASON SINCE MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE AT LEAST A BRIEF SHRA. TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE, AND THE MODERATE EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AS THE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE EAST AND TRANSITION TO
THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE SAL WORKS IN AND THE EAST

FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE STRUGGLING TO PUSH INLAND ALONG THE WEST
COAST LIMITING MASS CONVERGENCE. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCH UPWARD AS ANOTHER WAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.

2105. WxLogic
For now 97L is only being forecasted to briefly develop into a TD and may be a minimal TS midweek by GFS Parallel and HWRF. While ECMWF shows an open wave with quite a bit of disturb weather and gustiness just like GFS v1. One thing might be pretty close to realization and is that moisture levels should increases substantially by this weekend across FL from South to North. Worth watching nonetheless.

Thankfully the SAL that was lingering across FL specially in CFL has finally lifted out enough to clear the skies up.
Quoting scott39:
Why does a wave get tagged an Invest?


A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.
2108. scott39
From what Im reading about 97L, developement if any, wont happen until its W of the Bahamas.
Raining and raining and raining I'm under the "n" in Beaumont. I'm getting very very sleepy. Lol.

2111. scott39
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.
Thanks, I always thought it meant, that it would more than likely develope.
Good morning!

Where does it say that we have 97L? I did notice that the NHC bumped up the percentage for both of the AOI's to 20%, throughout the season that is the benchmark for invest tagging.
2114. gator23
Quoting palmpt:

Good lord... Please. When is too much too much? Got an idea. Storm, go to your blog so that the storm lovers follow. Honestly, this is getting ridiculous. I am here to hear many points of view. And have been since Katrina. What is all of this Storm lovin? Time for Storm to man his blog. And everyone else to follow admin rules... And stay on topic.

i was referring to his military service. And I will thank anyone who is in the military for serving their country wherever and whenever I want.
Interesting to note, on the wave emerging from Africa at about 30W that some rotation (coreolis) is already evident on the loops,but, it is still beneath 10N.
Quoting StormW:


Oh please!
Storm, ya gotta ignore idiots like this.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:

Good morning!

Where does it say that we have 97L? I did notice that the NHC bumped up the percentage for both of the AOI's to 20%, throughout the season that is the benchmark for invest tagging.

Nevermind, found it on the navy site.
2119. tkeith
Quoting StormW:


Problem?
new sheriff in town?...lol
2120. scott39
Quoting palmpt:

Good lord... Please. When is too much too much? Got an idea. Storm, go to your blog so that the storm lovers follow. Honestly, this is getting ridiculous. I am here to hear many points of view. And have been since Katrina. What is all of this Storm lovin? Time for Storm to man his blog. And everyone else to follow admin rules... And stay on topic.
I dont understand your statement. StormW is good at what he does and appreciated, along with being respectful to us all.
Quoting scott39:
From what Im reading about 97L, developement if any, wont happen until its W of the Bahamas.
If the upper level low doesn't move any development will have to occur in the Gulf of Mexico, at least that's what I've heard.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Interesting to note, on the wave emerging from Africa at about 30W that some rotation (coreolis) is already evident on the loops,but, it is still beneath 10N.


At the end of this loop looks like GFS tries to launch a couple of them off Africa. Link
2123. IKE
97L may have more importance because of the oil spill situation.

Looking at the data from SHIPS...shear is an issue til Thursday. Looks to be moving WNW...may bend back west and be somewhere near northern Cuba by Friday.

Maybe it will simply die out. Unlikely though. Maybe it will head for northern Mexico and southern Texas for system #3 for them.

Get ready for the....I think it will turn posts later in the week. The high does look to weaken some early next week.
2124. beell


...THE SYNOPTIC SETUP
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A DERECHO EVENT FROM NERN NEB ESEWD ACROSS
WRN AND CNTRL IA
. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE CONCERNING AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK.
ALTHOUGH THE MOST WIDESPREAD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS
THE MCS ORGANIZES EARLY IN THE EVENT
. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
MAY OCCUR WITH ANY CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE.
Quoting palmpt:

Good lord... Please. When is too much too much? Got an idea. Storm, go to your blog so that the storm lovers follow. Honestly, this is getting ridiculous. I am here to hear many points of view. And have been since Katrina. What is all of this Storm lovin? Time for Storm to man his blog. And everyone else to follow admin rules... And stay on topic.
Just to let you know we are all friends of Storms,so please dont come in here bashing him.He is one of the most respected people on here.His wisdom and knowledge is well respected.Im sure others feel the same as I do.If you dont like what you hear,by all means leave.I have had enough of people like you stirring the pot on Storm.His service he has done for our country is greatly apprecited as well.I normally am a nice person but enough is enough.
From the Key West NWS Discussion:

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A FAIRLY STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE (THE ONE CURRENTLY NEARING PUERTO RICO) ACROSS THE KEYS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT FOR THOSE PERIODS. DEEP AND MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND 40 PERCENT
POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.

Link
2127. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If the upper level low doesn't move any development will have to occur in the Gulf of Mexico, at least that's what I've heard.
Do you no what conditions are looking like in the GOM by Thursday?
AL, 97, 2010071906, , BEST, 0, 191N, 624W, 25, 1014, WV,
Quoting homelesswanderer:


At the end of this loop looks like GFS tries to launch a couple of them off Africa. Link


Telling us something; the CV season is getting ready to start in earnest....As to the current wave, we will need to keep a close eye on it given the very low sheer levels out there at the moment.
2131. b4dirt
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010071906-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=An imation
2132. 900MB
Hey Storm! Thanks for all the info as always. I'm not sure what all the hubbub is about, but I sure hope u r not going anywhere. U r one of my very top go-to guys on the tropics.
Andrew
Quoting scott39:
Do you no what conditions are looking like in the GOM by Thursday?
GFS forecasts mainly favorable shear in the GOM through 168 hours in the 06z run.
Quoting 900MB:
Hey Storm! Thanks for all the info as always. I'm not sure what all the hubbub is about, but I sure hope u r not going anywhere. U r one of my very top go-to guys on the tropics.
Andrew


Roger that and Morning all
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
GFS forecasts mainly favorable shear in the GOM through 168 hours in the 06z run.


Hi - favorable towards development?
2136. P451
This is interesting....while the globe recorded "the hottest june in history" look what Argentina (now in mid-winter) is going through:

---

A weeklong cold snap that has killed at least eight people in Argentina is expected to continue Monday, state media reported.

Argentina's National Weather Service says the blustery weather will continue in the nation's capital of Buenos Aires, with heavy winds, intense rains and frigid temperatures expected, state-run news agency Telam reported.

Temperatures dipped below zero degrees Celsius (32 degrees Fahrenheit) in 10 of the country's provinces Sunday, according to Telam.

The news agency reported that at least eight people have died during the cold snap in the past several days. It has also caused flight cancellations and delays at the Buenos Aires airport.

Half the country is covered in snow and the capital recorded its lowest temperatures in a decade on Friday, Telam reported.

Mercury fell to -1.5 degrees Celsius (29 degrees Fahrenheit) in the capital, close to the coldest temperature ever recorded there.

The cold snap is causing record demands on gas and electricity, the Planning Ministry said. It has put restrictions on business and industry use of gas to ensure homes have enough, the agency reported.
2137. scott39
Quoting IKE:
97L may have more importance because of the oil spill situation.

Looking at the data from SHIPS...shear is an issue til Thursday. Looks to be moving WNW...may bend back west and be somewhere near northern Cuba by Friday.

Maybe it will simply die out. Unlikely though. Maybe it will head for northern Mexico and southern Texas for system #3 for them.

Get ready for the....I think it will turn posts later in the week. The high does look to weaken some early next week.
Looks like were in the clear this season IKE, if TCs keep making a BEE_LINE for N Mexico and S Texas! J/K I know its not going to stay that way!
Quoting AustinTXWeather:


Hi - favorable towards development?
Yep. PSU e-WALL steering weakens the ridge over the S.E US, meaning that any system will likely be a Texas/Louisiana border event by the way.
2139. P451
Quoting beell:


...THE SYNOPTIC SETUP
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A DERECHO EVENT FROM NERN NEB ESEWD ACROSS
WRN AND CNTRL IA
. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE CONCERNING AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK.
ALTHOUGH THE MOST WIDESPREAD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS
THE MCS ORGANIZES EARLY IN THE EVENT
. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
MAY OCCUR WITH ANY CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE.


Good Morning, beell.

It would appear I am going to get whacked this afternoon (east/central/new jersey).

Our heat wave has gone largely unchecked and up here we always expect one big nasty round of severe weather to break it's back.

Today looks to be the day.
Good morning Storm,Msgambler,dragonfly,and all my WU family.sorry I was so ill with the comment.I am having a bad morning.I will keep quiet so I dont get a ban.Now on to weather.I hope 97l will just fade away.We dont need a system in the GOM at all.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Telling us something; the CV season is getting ready to start in earnest....As to the current wave, we will need to keep a close eye on it given the very low sheer levels out there at the moment.


Yeah those are the nightmares we follow for a thousand miles. The home grown ones are bad. But these like to spread the joy around. :(
2142. IKE
Texas/Mexico...I don't want to see anyone hit but please spare us of another track that way. The other system on the TWO looks headed that way too.
2143. scott39
Why is 97L not on the tropical-hurricane pg.?
Good Morning Guys, This wave off Africa is extremely impressive this morning. This one will have to be watched down the road as this could pose a potential major threat to the US. In regards to 97L looks very disorganized this morning but developement could occur by Wednesday then approach SE FL as potentially Bonnie on Friday or Saturday and once this gets into the Gulf it could turn into a monster (ie a potential Rita scenario).
2146. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Looks like were in the clear this season IKE, if TCs keep making a BEE_LINE for N Mexico and S Texas! J/K I know its not going to stay that way!


Systems follow patterns. Sometimes the pattern changes. Right now it looks locked in. Fine with me:)
MAYBE WE WILL HAVE INVEST 98l soon to.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Good Morning Guys, This wave off Africa is extremely impressive this morning. This one will have to be watched down the road as this could pose a potential major threat to the US. In regards to 97L looks very disorganized this morning but developement could occur by Wednesday then approach SE FL as potentially Bonnie on Friday or Saturday and once this gets into the Gulf it could turn into a monster (ie a potential Rita scenario).


I noticed the similarities in track. But that's as far as I'm going to think about that. :)
Thanks MiamiHurricanes09 -- appreciate the extra bit of info on Texas/Louisiana potential. Oy. :)

I agree, Ike, StormW - S Texas/Mex could go without another hit, esp now.
2151. P451
Good Morning. 11 HR WV Imagery ending 715AM ET, Radar, Lightning.







Quoting Jeff9641:
Good Morning Guys, This wave off Africa is extremely impressive this morning. This one will have to be watched down the road as this could pose a potential major threat to the US. In regards to 97L looks very disorganized this morning but developement could occur by Wednesday then approach SE FL as potentially Bonnie on Friday or Saturday and once this gets into the Gulf it could turn into a monster (ie a potential Rita scenario).

I'm with you on the time frame for development this week...But not on it becoming a Rita-like monster.
2153. pcola57
Quoting palmpt:

Good lord... Please. When is too much too much? Got an idea. Storm, go to your blog so that the storm lovers follow. Honestly, this is getting ridiculous. I am here to hear many points of view. And have been since Katrina. What is all of this Storm lovin? Time for Storm to man his blog. And everyone else to follow admin rules... And stay on topic.
Let Me assure you that with out Storm W here on this blog several issues would still rewmain...he not only contributes in a positive way but doesn't beleager/berate others for any reason...and you deserve the iggy...goodbye...poof
2154. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Systems follow patterns. Sometimes the pattern changes. Right now it looks locked in. Fine with me:)
Me too, It seems they change for us in Sept, when the CV part of the season is lighting up!
Quoting IKE:


Systems follow patterns. Sometimes the pattern changes. Right now it looks locked in. Fine with me:)


Doesn't look that IKE as this one near Africa could pose a major threat to the US where too early to tell but from what I'm seeing we look to be transitioning to a trough in the east next week and continuing into August. This is reminding me of 2004 on so many levels.
2157. P451
Quoting pcola57:

Let Me assure you that with out Storm W here on this blog several issues would still rewmain...he not only contributes in a positive way but doesn't beleager/berate others for any reason...and you deserve the iggy...goodbye...poof


Yep. Don't know what that poster is thinking. Storm is our Chief. Without him, Weather456, and many others too numerous to name, this blog would just be amateurs fighting over what half the imagery we look at means.

Quoting StormW:


I hear ya IKE...don't think they can handle any more flooding and heavy rain.


Amen Storm. That gets old quick. I too hope they're spared.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'm with you on the time frame for development this week...But not on it becoming a Rita-like monster.


When haven't you seen a Gulf storm explode this time of year in the Gulf. The Gulf seems to be like a stick of donimite for storms.



This is weird. Shows possibility of development in the Caribbean but doesn't show anything with 97L.
2162. eye
This blog was around before StormW started posting and if he leaves....again.....it will be around after his last post. This is Dr. Master's blog, not StormW's. He has his own blog, if he selects not to post in this blog anymore, and you want to still ask him questions, please go to his blog.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:



This is weird. Shows possibility of development in the Caribbean but doesn't show anything with 97L.


don't see anything forming in the Caribbean right now. The wave off Africa is very impressive and I would really watch this one.
Quoting Jeff9641:


When haven't you seen a Gulf storm explode this time of year in the Gulf. The Gulf seems to be like a stick of donimite for storms.

Well you got me there...But I don't expect a CAT5, but I expect some sort of Hurricane due to High SSTs and the favorable environment expected in the Gulf.
EDIT: My forecast for a hurricane is amateur and speculative. DO NOT take it seriously.
Quoting eye:
This blog was around before StormW started posting and if he leaves....again.....it will be around after his last post. This is Dr. Masters blog, not StormW's. He has his own blog, if selects not to post in this blog anymore, please read his own.
And if you leave it will still be around. I don't see you posting anything useful so why don't you leave. PLEASE
What's up with all the StormW hatters this morning. Guys leave the man alone because he provides lots of knowledge and wisdom to the blog.
Huge wave moving off Africa that should kick the Africa dust in the mouth and start the Cape Verde Season

To me there is clearly a circulation with the Jamaican AOI around 17N/79W, though it lacks what it had yesterday convection, though I would consider in terms of structure it is much more organized
Quoting P451:


Yep. Don't know what that poster is thinking. Storm is our Chief. Without him, Weather456, and many others too numerous to name, this blog would just be amateurs fighting over what half the imagery we look at means.




True.
yes, that CV spin looks like a major player down the road. And yes, StormW is a major player on this blog as he provides knowledge and wisdom that comes with many years of experience. We are most fortunate that he shares his bounty with us; at least i feel most fortunate. So let's all learn and be prepared for this season.
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Huge wave moving off Africa that should kick the Africa dust in the mouth and start the Cape Verde Season



This wave S of the CV islands could pose a major threat FL and the gulf coast down the road. I wonder if this is the wave near FL's east coast on 8/1/2010 below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_348.shtml
Really best to just ignore and not quote or respond to the trolls and haters as we go into an active season so folks tuning in can get some useful information without the interference......
good morning bloggers
i see there are some clowns and jokers here and in the end thats all that will remain as the rest slowly drifts away including myself
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
And if you leave it will still be around. I don't see you posting anything useful so why don't you leave. PLEASE
I don't think anyone hates this guy; he contributes good analysis on the tropics, without ANY HYPE! I think a lot of us here are not here to be in a fan club of anyones; I think we are interested in tropical weather. This blog is not about the poster, so everyone just read, learn, and shut up if you have things to comment on about other posters. Good comments also lead to nasty comments, and good, nice comments are just as irritating as nasty comments sometimes. Other than the nice evaluation of the tropics this morning, or I agree, or I disagree because type comments, leave the friendships or enemyships elsewhere, maybe in a blog about looking for friend or looking for enemies. Just my opinion.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Africa Satellite Loop


The wave of C Africa looks impressive too. Wow!! So much for the slow season as so many have been saying on here for days. We could be at the D storm in 2 weeks if this keeps up.
Agreeing with you on that note weatherwannabe.Im sorry I lashed out the way I did.But you are so right.When we respond to them all it does is get off what is important.With the active season we are about to encounter we need to really focus and be prepared.My WU family please accept my apologies.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Africa Satellite Loop


Awesome site and loop......Thank You.
Cool Avatar there, KOG.
Preliminary Caribbean Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MODELS SHOW FAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THE MORE RELIABLE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM
INDICATES THAT BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WE ARE TO TRANSITION
TO A WEAK CONVERGENT/NEUTRAL PATTERN...WHICH IS TO LAST FOR TEN
DAYS...AND TRANSITIONING AGAIN TO A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT BY THE
FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Cool Avatar there, KOG.
thanks doug
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Huge wave moving off Africa that should kick the Africa dust in the mouth and start the Cape Verde Season



Sure looks that way ROLL TIDE!
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Sure looks that way ROLL TIDE!


No pun intended
No development through July 29th per the ecmf. LOL
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thanks doug


Don't let some of these people get to you. I've been attacked on many occassions but i still remain because I have a passion for weather whether I'm right or wrong at times. Please Stay!
2188. Tazbeat
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Huge wave moving off Africa that should kick the Africa dust in the mouth and start the Cape Verde Season



I'm no expert, but on the Meteosat it looks as if the dry Saharan air is already penetrating the core of this wave and causing it to spread out. That doesn't seem too favorable for development.
KOG Morning... Best keep the clowns and jokers ignored.. They will move on to something else. Like my 15yo son moves on when my daughter finally ignores him.. LOL
2190. Drakoen
What is in the Caribbean is a mid level circulation.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Don't let some of these people get to you. I've been attacked on many occassions but i still remain because I have a passion for weather whether I'm right or wrong at times. Please Stay!


Should be a system in place that allows the bloggers to vote someone out / IP Ban. There are way too many morons that infiltrate this site and stir the pot.

I agree with IKE's idea and make it mandatory Membership fee ~ $10.00 - $20.00, and also make it so that every time you want to create a new screen name, you have to pay up!
Good morning StormW, Panhandle, KOTG, granny, Destin, Pensacola, Jeff, P451, and anyone I may have missed. Let's HOPE today is better than yesterday.
Quoting Drakoen:
What is in the Caribbean is a mid level circulation.


Morning Drake! What do you make of this wave off Africa. I know we have 97L but the wave near Africa could develope any day it seems. Any thoughts?
2194. Drakoen
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Preliminary Caribbean Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MODELS SHOW FAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THE MORE RELIABLE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM
INDICATES THAT BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WE ARE TO TRANSITION
TO A WEAK CONVERGENT/NEUTRAL PATTERN...WHICH IS TO LAST FOR TEN
DAYS...AND TRANSITIONING AGAIN TO A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT BY THE
FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST.


2195. hydrus
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
KOG Morning... Best keep the clowns and jokers ignored.. They will move on to something else. Like my 15yo son moves on when my daughter finally ignores him.. LOL
Yes.. The ignore thing works off the blog too..;)
Quoting scott39:
Looks like were in the clear this season IKE, if TCs keep making a BEE_LINE for N Mexico and S Texas! J/K I know its not going to stay that way!



???????????
Quoting msgambler:
Good morning StormW, Panhandle, KOTG, granny, Destin, Pensacola, Jeff, P451, and anyone I may have missed. Let's HOPE today is better than yesterday.


Morning, just sippin on a nice hot cup of Joe
2198. Drakoen
Quoting Jeff9641:


Morning Drake! What do you make of this wave off Africa. I know we have 97L but the wave near Africa could develope any day it seems. Any thoughts?


Who is Drake?

No development off the coast of Africa due to SAL.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Good Morning Guys, This wave off Africa is extremely impressive this morning. This one will have to be watched down the road as this could pose a potential major threat to the US. In regards to 97L looks very disorganized this morning but developement could occur by Wednesday then approach SE FL as potentially Bonnie on Friday or Saturday and once this gets into the Gulf it could turn into a monster (ie a potential Rita scenario).


A bit early for me to worry about a major threat to the U.S. Having said that, the Cape Verde season is getting close and we'll have to see what the track setup looks like once we have our first named CV storm.
Storm, what is your prognosis on the puerto Rico wave?
Heavy overcast here in Cayman today with thunderstorms the past 12 hours
Quoting msgambler:
Good morning StormW, Panhandle, KOTG, granny, Destin, Pensacola, Jeff, P451, and anyone I may have missed. Let's HOPE today is better than yesterday.


Good Morning Buddy. It seems while I was gone this place went crazy over the weekend.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Should be a system in place that allows the bloggers to vote someone out / IP Ban. There are way too many morons that infiltrate this site and stir the pot.

I agree with IKE's idea and make it mandatory Membership fee ~ $10.00 - $20.00, and also make it so that every time you want to create a new screen name, you have to pay up!
That and or participation... I contribute in many ways through my photography and my weather station (that is currently down for maintenance(needs solar batteries lol)). So if you dont contribute to the community as a whole pay up. I wouldnt be against a membership fee for those who want to be heard.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
That and or participation... I contribute in many ways through my photography and my weather station (that is currently down for maintenance(needs solar batteries lol)). So if you dont contribute to the community as a whole pay up. I wouldnt be against a membership fee for those who want to be heard.


as i have said before tho, there are lots of morons with money... as for weather, is it gonna be stormy in the panhandle today or anytime soon? thanks
Does it look like the circulations (surface, mid level, upper level) associated with the PR wave are stacked to present a threat down the road? I do not see it; does anyone? Perhaps the environment will become conducive for this to occur.
Good morning Orca and earthly
2208. Drakoen
To have a membership fee Wunderground would have to add more services. Adding thorough ECMWF graphics would be nice :)
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
That and or participation... I contribute in many ways through my photography and my weather station (that is currently down for maintenance(needs solar batteries lol)). So if you dont contribute to the community as a whole pay up. I wouldnt be against a membership fee for those who want to be heard.


Or, you can use the ignore, +/-, admin functions, and most of the problems go away :)
2210. DVG
Someone posted a new experimental model a few days ago. Seems like it has some relevance to 97L. Be interesting to follow as the week unfolds.
Quoting msgambler:
Good morning Orca and earthly


Morning :)
How did you trip go yesterday?
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
That and or participation... I contribute in many ways through my photography and my weather station (that is currently down for maintenance(needs solar batteries lol)). So if you dont contribute to the community as a whole pay up. I wouldnt be against a membership fee for those who want to be heard.


I understand, so maybe one free screen name then pony up after that?
Good morning Msgambler.I hope you get that blood pressure situation under control.I have really been praying for you.
maybe invest 98L SOON LOOK AT THIS WAVE..
Quoting Jeff9641:


Good Morning Buddy. It seems while I was gone this place went crazy over the weekend.
Yeah, I think I ended up on quite a few iggy lists this weekend. I got a little tired of the immaturity and had to rant a little. Sorta supprised I didn't get the boot. But I will learn to just sit back and be quiet.
97L is born





Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
maybe invest 98L SOON LOOK AT THIS WAVE..


Nice map!
Have I missed something! Is there really a 97L, or just people calling it before it is designated?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Morning :)
How did you trip go yesterday?
If your talking about to the claim center, then it went great.
Quoting Drakoen:
To have a membership fee Wunderground would have to add more services. Adding thorough ECMWF graphics would be nice :)
Lol, I agree. It's not like I'm interested paying $10.00 to just look at longer radar loops and no advertising.
Quoting DVG:
Someone posted a new experimental model a few days ago. Seems like it has some relevance to 97L. Be interesting to follow as the week unfolds.


Link :)
Quoting msgambler:
If your talking about to the claim center, then it went great.


Glad to hear it, and yes that was the question
Quoting Drakoen:
To have a membership fee Wunderground would have to add more services. Adding thorough ECMWF graphics would be nice :)


Probably could then afford more licenses and software upgrades. This all might get away from what Dr. Masters wants on his site. I dont know his thoughts. There are a lot of positives for an open forum. Many may not come in the first place that really put in a ton of the heavy lifting now. If there was a bar of entry maybe Drak, Storm, Levi, 456, jeff, etc. etc would have never come in the first place. So there is some potential bad too.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Have I missed something! Is there really a 97L, or just people calling it before it is designated?

It's been designated but the WU Tropical Weather site hasn't shown it yet.
Despite being void of organized strong convection the tropical wave in the central Caribbean is far more organized than the tropical wave near Puerto Rico. IMO, this area should be designated 98L very soon.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Or, you can use the ignore, +/-, admin functions, and most of the problems go away :)


Totally agree. I recommended that earlier.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It's been designated but the WU Tropical Weather site hasn't shown it yet.


10-4
2228. beell
Quoting StormW:


Thanks beel!


Good Mornin' StormW. Slowly but surely getting drug into the Work Monday here. Better late than never on the reply!

Got to give the folks with no tropical weather something to look at! Looks like they dropped the Mod Risk over IA on the latest SPC Day 1.

SPC Day 1 - 7:48AM CDT

Catch ya later.

Quoting StormW:


Thanks beel!
Quoting P451:


Good Morning, beell.

It would appear I am going to get whacked this afternoon (east/central/new jersey).

Our heat wave has gone largely unchecked and up here we always expect one big nasty round of severe weather to break it's back.

Today looks to be the day.


Morning, P451,
May not be too bad for ya'll. You do have the cold front with a pre-frontal surface trough to work with. And about 30 knots of shear. Maybe enough for some supercells. After the heat wave it might be just right.

Have a good 'un.
2229. aquak9
heck I would gladly pay to keep certain people OFF this site!

Good morning WU-Bloggers worldwide. I wake up to 97L. Confound it.
Quoting Drakoen:
To have a membership fee Wunderground would have to add more services. Adding thorough ECMWF graphics would be nice :)


Good Morning........They could go to a Weathertap type system (credit card billing) and that would eliminate a large portion of the problems.........I am all for it.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


10-4


I just put it up, check 2204
2233. Drakoen
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Good Morning........They could go to a Weathertap type system (credit card billing) and that would eliminate a large portion of the problems.........I am all for it.


Yea, I wouldn't mind either.
HERE IS INVEST97L ON THE NHC MAPS NOW..
Quoting Orcasystems:


I just put it up, check 2204


Thanks
only here briefly has im going out for breakfast in a bit...expect 98L to be tagged this afternoon in the carribean
2238. Drakoen
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Probably could then afford more licenses and software upgrades. This all might get away from what Dr. Masters wants on his site. I dont know his thoughts. There are a lot of positives for an open forum. Many may not come in the first place that really put in a ton of the heavy lifting now. If there was a bar of entry maybe Drak, Storm, Levi, 456, jeff, etc. etc would have never come in the first place. So there is some potential bad too.


ECMWF license isn't cheap, it would probably be more like $10/per month vs. just a 1 time fee.
Thank you, StormW.
Morning water puppy
granny you have mail.
97L has a good amount of deep convection, just not well organized.
Eureka!!! (brain is storming now lol) How about everyone must put a CC on file (for those who want a voice) and for every ban you receive they deduct $5 or $10?? Just putting a CC on file would keep most of the element away.

Back to the Tropics

LOL
Latest Model runs

I almost think there is a direct correlation between how proficient a blogger is meteorological speaking, and how many petty comments they draw. The best have learned to mostly ignore, although even they are human in there reactions sometimes. Keep up the good work you'll no need to re-sight the usual list. I await the deafening silence my post usually draw. Not knowing much has it's advantages.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
97L has a good amount of deep convection, just not well organized.
It's being enhanced by the diffluent flow aloft courtesy of a TUTT low. I bet that if that area were in the Caribbean it would be just as void of convection as its central Caribbean counterpart.
Good morning, all.

18n,80w being ignored this morning? Keeps that up, won't be ignored long.
2247. DVG
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Link :)

Thanks. I saved it this time. Track moved south from the original. It seems this model projected things ahead of the other models. ( Of course I might have missed something. )
Quoting Drakoen:


Who is Drake?

No development off the coast of Africa due to SAL.


Although they are "pouch tracking" it, PGI18L, which currently dissipates it as it approaches the islands.
On the African wave, there is a huge plume of SAL on it's NW quadrant but you never never know.....Still moist around the core of the wave and the SAL could move westward in tandem with it.....It will be an interesting watch.
Invest 97L is up against some shear right now.

As per Baha's advice, I have started flagging posts that violate rules of the road.
Do you know that this is one of them?
#6: No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X".
I think it's okay to say that as long as there is also a weather related topic in your post.
Have a great day everyone.
(Nice to see you posting moonlightcowboy.)
2252. Drakoen
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Although they are "pouch tracking" it, PGI18L, which currently dissipates it as it approaches the islands.


Pouch tracking for 97L looks interesting as it gets into the Bahamas and through the straits.

Link
2253. IKE
Quoting Chicklit:
Invest 97L is up against some shear right now.

As per Baha's advice, I have started flagging posts that violate rules of the road.
Do you know that this is one of them?
#6: No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X". I think it's okay to say that as long as there is also a weather related topic in your post.
Have a great day everyone.


Good morning Chicklit.
I think I see some sort of swirl near 67W 20N on visible imagery.
Quoting gordydunnot:
I almost think there is a direct correlation between how proficient a blogger is meteorological speaking, and how many petty comments they draw. The best have learned to mostly ignore, although even they are human in there reactions sometimes. Keep up the good work you'll no need to re-sight the usual list. I await the deafening silence my post usually draw. Not knowing much has it's advantages.


Sometimes there's a lot of truth to the old saying "ignorance is bliss", and I mean that in a good way.....
2249. On the African wave, there is a huge plume of SAL on it's NW quadrant but you never never know.....Still moist around the core of the wave and the SAL could move westward in tandem with it.....It will be an interesting watch.


Agreed. This board always overplays SAL. If it were a heavy dust concentration then, yes, maybe I would tend to agree, but SAL (dry air mostly) is not a single-most inhibiting factor. Indeed, it may not develop, but it also creates a better moisture field for any wave following it.
Quoting Drakoen:


Pouch tracking for 97L looks interesting as it gets into the Bahamas and through the straits.

Link


Kinda reminds ya a little of a storm that start with an "A" not saying at all that will happen but, that model run is interesting familar!
2261. FLdewey
Meteorological what now?
Quoting StormW:
INVEST 97L AND AREAS OF INTEREST SYNOPSIS ISSUED 9:10 A.M. JULY 19, 2010


Thank You and you are right on the money in terms of the African wave......It transitioned extremely well from land to sea and looks good after have moved on past the CV islands.
Good morning Tampa
Good morning all. Just a note to all that would place restrictions on this site. If they were placed several that come here would no longer visit. Maybe that would make some happy but reality must set in. This website like most are supported through ad revenue so if the numbers drop so does the revenue. No ad revenue no website. Simple fact of the web.
Quoting Drakoen:


Pouch tracking for 97L looks interesting as it gets into the Bahamas and through the straits.

Link


Noticed they start it further south than NHC 97L position.


2250. (Nice to see you posting moonlightcowboy.)

Thanks, Chicklet. As the season starts popping shortly, there'll be so many posts here, the blog will look like a movie - one constant stream. Good to see you, too - always enjoy your posts. ;)
Quoting StormW:
INVEST 97L AND AREAS OF INTEREST SYNOPSIS ISSUED 9:10 A.M. JULY 19, 2010


Thanks good ole pal budster. Looks like things are about to ramp up in the tropics < Note: That was a tropics related comment (following the rules of the road). LOL
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
2249. On the African wave, there is a huge plume of SAL on it's NW quadrant but you never never know.....Still moist around the core of the wave and the SAL could move westward in tandem with it.....It will be an interesting watch.


Agreed. This board always overplays SAL. If it were a heavy dust concentration then, yes, maybe I would tend to agree, but SAL (dry air mostly) is not a single-most inhibiting factor. Indeed, it may not develop, but it also creates a better moisture field for any wave following it.


I am not wishcastng it by any means but it has the best presentation yet IMHO of any wave we have seen thus far this season and headed towards a very low sheer environment....Potential SAL/dry air ingestion issues might be the only short-term limitation on this one........ (Now I need some model support down the road).....LOL
Hey, StormW! I've been trying to raise funds - you know, the kind that help children finish college! ;)

I have one taking the bar exam in a week, another about to enter as a junior. Takes a lot of fund-raising! ;P

Good to see you on the job with all this season is supposed to have in store for us! UGH!
Thunderstorms occurring over the town center of Vega Alta, PR. Ominously cloudy here on Barrio Maricao, in the southern part of said municipality.
Thanks SS, we do have two areas of interest in our neighborhood to occupy most of us today. The more organized but better structured one appears headed west towards Texas as Storm mentions.But from my prospective I don't like where 97l is the heat in the western Bahamas and gulf stream do crazy things to systems. I hope the ull does its job but I think this one my slip under.
Good morning Storm. You are one of the few that I actualy pay attention to. Keep up the good work. Now where did all the rain in the Atlanta area come from and will it dry out soon?
thanks storm w. last night, like you, our local met seemed "more interested/ concerned" with the caribbean area rather than what is now 97L.
2269. I hear ya, WWB! Sounds like reasonable discernment to me. ;)
2278. msphar
that weather NW of Puerto Rico really packed some punch when it passed through the Eastern tip of Puerto Rico two days ago. I'm glad its now down wind of me.
Quoting Jeff9641:


The wave of C Africa looks impressive too. Wow!! So much for the slow season as so many have been saying on here for days. We could be at the D storm in 2 weeks if this keeps up.


Things will pick up in August. It has been a normal July.
2281. Drakoen
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Noticed they start it further south than NHC 97L position.




Yea at 00z.
O_O Hearing thunder. It's not a good sign. Ever since 92L, T-Waves and Invests have caused at least 5 power outages at my house lasting at least 2 hours. And 97L is no exception.
2284. JamesSA
Quoting StormW:
INVEST 97L AND AREAS OF INTEREST SYNOPSIS ISSUED 9:10 A.M. JULY 19, 2010

Storm, your blog is the best place on the planet for a level headed, concise and thorough synopsis of developing weather. Thanks!
2285. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:
Are the tropics really delivering so little that we are hyper-focused on blog rule violations?

Something I have done is try and imagine the comments here as actual back and forth conversation in a face-to-face environment. Like one big room we get to be in, unless banned from it.

I can't imagine people would be so uptight as to go around telling each other ways they would keep people out, etc ... We have lost the perspective that this is an "open forum", which essentially means like it or leave it.

The open dialogue here -- even with the trolls, etc. -- is far better than any heavily-regulated bancentric forum could ever be.


Awesome post... it's not like this is the first year trolls have come out in force. It's part of the scenery that breaks the monotony of analyzing meteorological data ad nauseam.
all is pretty quiet in puerto rico, just cloudy
97L is getting sheared and probably won't get its act together until it reaches the Gulf. It might not even reach the Florida straits as a potent tropical wave. How this feature is an invest right now is beyond me. The feature in the Caribbean looks more promising.

Not bad yet here in Puerto Rico, i did lose power several times though, it's very dark here, and little breezy. Looks like the worst thunderstorms are too are north.
2289. aquak9
Can we ban the MJO from octants one and two?

that's kinda weather-related...
Morning all! I see we have 97L.
2291. Patrap
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SUN 18 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-048

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 71.5W AT 20/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 21/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:
all is pretty quiet in puerto rico, just cloudy

To me, it's the quiet before the storm. Specially with a Thunderstorm rumbling nearby.
Quoting SeniorPoppy:
97L is getting sheared and probably won't get its act together until it reaches the Gulf. It might not even reach the Florida straits as a potent tropical wave. How this feature is an invest right now is beyond me. The feature in the Caribbean looks more promising.

yeah, i agree, the wave that just exited Africa looks very interesting
Quoting SeniorPoppy:
97L is getting sheared and probably won't get its act together until it reaches the Gulf. It might not even reach the Florida straits as a potent tropical wave. How this feature is an invest right now is beyond me. The feature in the Caribbean looks more promising.


Here we go again with your downcasting.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

To me, it's the quiet before the storm. Specially with a Thunderstorm rumbling nearby.

you never know, it's getting really brezzy in my area, how about you?
Good morning Pat
2299. leo305
The feature in the carribean barely has a circulation if any..

while 97L has some curviture
I just noticed that my dew point is only 1.1*F from my actual temperature.
Guys, shear is only 20-30 knots, it's high but not high enough to rip apart a good wave. Sure, it'll be disorganized by the time it reaches favorable conditions, but there is a good reason why they tagged it 97L. It won't get ripped apart, now it it was 40-50 knots like we've seen with 92L, then it would rip apart, but shear is only staying 20-30 knots. It will most likely disorganize the wave, but NOT rip it apart.
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:

yeah, i agree, the wave that just exited Africa looks very interesting


Don't quote him.. he's a troll. Obviously, when he's wrong he bashes the NHC.
Morning all. We're still overcast, but w/ winds at 10kts gusting to maybe 18-20 from time to time. So far no rain, but cloud cover is pretty constant (though it doesn't show on this satellite image).



Meanwhile the future looms large to the east.



I think I'll get out super early on Wednesday a.m. and go out to Eastern Point for some sunrise pictures. (Hopefully we won't be staring down a TS at that point :o).

I'm planning to enjoy this week, which is a vacation week for me, and hopefully I won't spend it putting up storm shutters... lol
Can't find any pressure drops with either system looking at buoy reports.
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:

you never know, it's getting really brezzy in my area, how about you?

Heard thunder about a minute ago. Also hearing roosters screaming :)
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
2249. On the African wave, there is a huge plume of SAL on it's NW quadrant but you never never know.....Still moist around the core of the wave and the SAL could move westward in tandem with it.....It will be an interesting watch.


Agreed. This board always overplays SAL. If it were a heavy dust concentration then, yes, maybe I would tend to agree, but SAL (dry air mostly) is not a single-most inhibiting factor. Indeed, it may not develop, but it also creates a better moisture field for any wave following it.


Moonlightcowboy~ Hey how are ya sure have missed u. glad to see ya. Still looks like we might have a busy season.
Sheri
2308. aquak9
Quoting leo305:
The feature in the carribean barely has a circulation if any..

while 97L has some curviture


I barely have circulation these days, too. Used to have some curvature, about 20 years ago...
Am I seeing circulation west of Jamaica on visible
Quoting reedzone:
Guys, shear is only 20-30 knots, it's high but not high enough to rip apart a good wave. Sure, it'll be disorganized by the time it reaches favorable conditions, but there is a good reason why they tagged it 97L. It won't get ripped apart, now it it was 40-50 knots like we've seen with 92L, then it would rip apart, but shear is only staying 20-30 knots. It will most likely disorganize the wave, but NOT rip it apart.


Agree 100% and it looks it will not encounter and thing higher than 30knts
Quoting leo305:
The feature in the carribean barely has a circulation if any..

while 97L has some curviture
??? The tropical wave in the Caribbean has a fairly well-defined mid-level circulation as seen on visible and RGB loops. The one by Puerto Rico is the one with no circulation.
2313. IKE

Owen Roberts, GC (Airport)
Updated: 1 hr 0 min 16 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
81 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the ESE
Pressure: 29.95 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 88 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1600 ft
Scattered Clouds 9000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft
Quoting Patrap:


It is a good morning ms..,

Slurp..

ahhhhh
It was but now water puppy has this image in my head....LOL
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Good morning, all.

18n,80w being ignored this morning? Keeps that up, won't be ignored long.
Wow, MLC.... great to see u in the blog! I don't think that Twave is being ignored by any means....



lol

I'm finding it amazing how heavily the Caribbean and its edges have been covered by unstable weather this last 36-48 hours. It's also interesting to observe ITCZ well above the coast of S. AMerica in the Caribbean, but below 10N across the ATL. I don't think such conditions are the norm, even for la nina years....
Did anyone notice that the dating of the imagery in Dr. Master's update is on 7/27/10? The producers of the image must own that crystal ball we all would like to own.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all. We're still overcast, but w/ winds at 10kts gusting to maybe 18-20 from time to time. So far no rain, but cloud cover is pretty constant (though it doesn't show on this satellite image).



Meanwhile the future looms large to the east.



I think I'll get out super early on Wednesday a.m. and go out to Eastern Point for some sunrise pictures. (Hopefully we won't be staring down a TS at that point :o).

I'm planning to enjoy this week, which is a vacation week for me, and hopefully I won't spend it putting up storm shutters... lol


I don't think you will have to, but if the shear were to die down and and anticyclone were to propagate close to this feature I would be worried.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
??? The tropical wave in the Caribbean has a fairly well-defined mid-level circulation as seen on visible and RGB loops. The one by Puerto Rico is the one with no circulation.

Umm MH09 could you check somewhere around 67W 20N, because I think i see some kind of swirl on visible imagery.
EDIT : Never mind, I think it fizzled already or was just an illusion or something.
Good morning.

I see we have 97L now.
Quoting Holguin:
Good morning, all! What's new in the tropics?

We have 97L.
wow nice AL, 97, 2010071906, , BEST, 0, 191N, 624W, 25, 1014, WV,

so just 98L and 99L to go now if our systme can get back it convection it might become 98L and our CV AOI 99L
2324. IKE
Whether 97L is a TS...a TD or just a blob, the results are about the same....rain...and plenty of it.

I don't see pressures dropping around the western Caribbean low. They're approaching 30.00 around the Caymans....

Cayman Retreat, George Town, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands (PWS)
Updated: 3 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
82.9 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 76%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.97 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 89 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1600 ft
Scattered Clouds 9000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 6 ft
2326. beell
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I am not wishcastng it by any means but it has the best presentation yet IMHO of any wave we have seen thus far this season and headed towards a very low sheer environment....Potential SAL/dry air ingestion issues might be the only short-term limitation on this one........ (Now I need some model support down the road).....LOL


I think it should look pretty good out to about 30-35W. Then it may fizzle a bit out in the central Atlantic after leaving the surface convergence near the coast of Africa. Another stealth wave after that. Close enough to the ITCZ to remain a feature at least. But it sure looks pretty this morning.
Quoting IKE:

Owen Roberts, GC (Airport)
Updated: 1 hr 0 min 16 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
81 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the ESE
Pressure: 29.95 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 88 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1600 ft
Scattered Clouds 9000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft
Has started very heavy rain and winds around 25 mph now.
2329. FLdewey
Quoting pcola57:


Shhhhhh! ;)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
??? The tropical wave in the Caribbean has a fairly well-defined mid-level circulation as seen on visible and RGB loops. The one by Puerto Rico is the one with no circulation.


Actually Vorticity is very sick on both! The ARea with the best Convergence and Divergence is pegged correctly as 97L!






Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Umm MH09 could you check somewhere around 67W 20N, because I think i see some kind of swirl on visible imagery.
EDIT : Never mind, I think it fizzled already or was just an illusion or something.
Yep, I'm not seeing any type of circulation there.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Don't quote him.. he's a troll. Obviously, when he's wrong he bashes the NHC.

sorry, i didn't know that.
morning

just woke up and have been reading from the top of the page

I come here to learn about weather. If i'm gona have to pay the ask the teacher of the day a question then i'm gona want ya to send me a text book to help me along the way ... I can't afford to pay so i hope they dont do it
AL 97 2010071912 BEST 0 192N 650W 25 1014 WV


No change except for position
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Don't quote him.. he's a troll. Obviously, when he's wrong he bashes the NHC.


Look at 97L right now. Tell me how this is more organized than the Caribbean disturbance. It's just my opinion, but it is also shared by others on here.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yep, I'm not seeing any type of circulation there.

me either
Quoting Chicklit:
Invest 97L is up against some shear right now.

As per Baha's advice, I have started flagging posts that violate rules of the road.
Do you know that this is one of them?
#6: No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X".
I think it's okay to say that as long as there is also a weather related topic in your post.
Have a great day everyone.
(Nice to see you posting moonlightcowboy.)


Back to LURK mode I go!
Howdy folks...glad to MLC back in here...I was wondering why the cowboy was staying away!

So 97L, with a WNW motion...here's the shear predicted in the area at 96 hours:





That's ominous...
I am clicking a minus and Admin button everytime someone mentions JFV....lay off!
Quoting SeniorPoppy:


Look at 97L right now. Tell me how this is more organized than the Caribbean disturbance. It's just my opinion, but it is also shared by others on here.
The Caribbean disturbance to me is far more organized than 97L, however being void of convection makes it look very disorganized.
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:

sorry, i didn't know that.


I didn't know this was a dictatorship. Yes master, I mean sir.
Here's the current shear:

Quoting TampaSpin:


Actually Vorticity is very sick on both! The ARea with the best Convergence and Divergence is pegged correctly as 97L!








Good Morning Tampa! The wave near Africa and the one that should exit the coast in 2 days will be named storms. Our CV season seems it's kicking into high gear now.
To get an idea of NHC thinking, look at SHIPS track, it is from OFCI.
Quoting beell:


I think it should look pretty good out to about 30-35W. Then it may fizzle a bit out in the central Atlantic after leaving the surface convergence near the coast of Africa. Another stealth wave after that. Close enough to the ITCZ to remain a feature at least. But it sure looks pretty this morning.


Good insight there........Guess we'll have to wait a few days and see what happens with it...There has been talk about how the tropics seemed a few weeks ahead of schedule (in terms of general set-up and the June/July doldrums notwithstanding).....Now that sheer levels have dropped so low between the Antilles and Africa south of 20N, I see no reason (other than possible SAL issues) why we could could not see a late July/early August long-track CV storm as opposed to the normal mid to late-August time frame.
Quoting SeniorPoppy:
97L is getting sheared and probably won't get its act together until it reaches the Gulf. It might not even reach the Florida straits as a potent tropical wave. How this feature is an invest right now is beyond me. The feature in the Caribbean looks more promising.


My guess is that it's an invest because all the meteorologists and mathematicians at the NHC have been looking at it very carefully and decided that, based on how it looks now and what the future conditions should be and its proximity to the US, it probably bears watching. Of course, that's just a guess... :-)
Baha, Sheri - good to see y'all, too.


Baha, yup, I see they have some color on it now. Things starting to pop. Not looking forward to this season at all.
2352. Patrap
Any reference to said "un-sub" curtain troll by direct comm, or quote will get the ol Boot today.

"U betcha"
The GFS doesn't develop anything for the next seven days, however there's a lot going right now in the tropics.
I see we have 97L this morning

to me it is much better organized than the area in the Caribbean
Hello, Flood! Hope all is well with you!

Thanks for posting the shear map - looking like development conditions are getting ripe. UGH!
Morn'n Dept of the Navy...
Quoting Drakoen:


Pouch tracking for 97L looks interesting as it gets into the Bahamas and through the straits.

Link
Drak, am I reading the graphics right when I conclude that they suggest the system will move along the N coast of the Greater Antilles and strengthen between 75 and 80W? TIA
SHEAR (KT) 20 19 27 28 25 24 22 21 16 3 5 7 8

NHC thinking that 97L will run into favorable shear in 80 hours or so.

Quoting Hurricanes101:
I see we have 97L this morning

to me it is much better organized than the area in the Caribbean


If the Caribbean disturbance fills in with convection, you will be probably singing a different tune.
2361. Patrap
Marsupial Madness Invest..?
Quoting Patrap:
Marsupial Madness Invest..?


Haha.. Morning Pat.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Hello, Flood! Hope all is well with you!

Thanks for posting the shear map - looking like development conditions are getting ripe. UGH!


MLC, great to have you back amongst us...yeah, the shear is easing (though it's predicted to get worse ion the next 48 hours) and I'm afraid this is just an indication of things to come...
2364. Relix
North PR Reporting: Wow it's cloudy, VERY cloudy. It looks like if it was 5AM. Darn. Quite cool too, some thunders in the horizon. We will miss the main action though =P
2365. Patrap
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Haha.. Morning Pat.


Yo CT,,..one to track eh?
Quoting Hurricanes101:
I see we have 97L this morning

to me it is much better organized than the area in the Caribbean

really its being sheared....different story with the other..to me the carribean is better with the structure
Quoting Hurricanes101:
I see we have 97L this morning

to me it is much better organized than the area in the Caribbean
It looks more organized because of its convection, in reality none of its convection is self-sustained as it all is being enhanced by the diffluent flow aloft courtesy of a TUTT low. The area in the Caribbean although void of convection has a somewhat well-defined mid-level circulation working its way down to the surface as evident using visible and RGB satellite loops.
Quoting Patrap:


Yo CT,,..one to track eh?


Yessir, got ourselves 'caught in a bad invest'
Quoting Relix:
North PR Reporting: Wow it's cloudy, VERY cloudy. It looks like if it was 5AM. Darn. Quite cool too, some thunders in the horizon. We will miss the main action though =P

yeah, here in eastern puerto rico it's very cloudy, and a little breezy, a little thunder in the background
97L is in vicinity of where Rita started her trek westward and scared the BeJesus outta everybody
12Z Model runs from the NHC

Quoting CybrTeddy:
SHEAR (KT) 20 19 27 28 25 24 22 21 16 3 5 7 8

NHC thinking that 97L will run into favorable shear in 80 hours or so.

By that time it should be at least by the Florida straights entering the GOMEX.
Hello,
I have seen people referring to a good looking tropical wave off Africa. I look at satellite images from the EATL, and I really don't see much. Am I missing something? Can someone explain?
Thanks.
Quoting Holguin:
its moving towards SF! But, no worries, since its getting sheared like a sheep.


Shears not that bad and is expected to weaken come Wednesday. I do think Bonnie maybe in the making in the next few days. I did call this one last week when this was a naked swirl at 17N and 33W.
I have what might be a stupid question. Besides the fact that the SAL is dry air, why is it that the sand can kill/inhibit a wave coming off of the coast of Africa, but there are still people looking into "seeding" clouds to produce rain in areas of drought?
eventhough the carribean vitocity is enlongated its abit stronger than 97L
Quoting Hurricanes101:
I see we have 97L this morning

to me it is much better organized than the area in the Caribbean

I think the area in Caribbean is more organized structurally and got much favorable conditions, but at moment lacks convection, though I think that will change, just my opinion of course.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
To get an idea of NHC thinking, look at SHIPS track, it is from OFCI.


Is this what your talking about?
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 39 42 44 45 49 56 63 66
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 39 42 44 45 49 56 63 66
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 29 29 29 30 32 35 40 49 59
Quoting aquak9:


I barely have circulation these days, too. Used to have some curvature, about 20 years ago...


You to funny Aquak9, morning, don't want to be flagged or banned.
so what do ya think about the wave out there?
sheri
I really don't think both can exist together as they are really to close. One will have to win out. Best guess is usually the system to the farthest West which would be in the Caribbean as Shear from the outflow from the Caribbean will hurt 97L as the TUTT moves out if it does.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It looks more organized because of its convection, in reality none of its convection is self-sustained as it all is being enhanced by the diffluent flow aloft courtesy of a TUTT low. The area in the Caribbean although void of convection has a somewhat well-defined mid-level circulation working its way down to the surface as evident using visible and RGB satellite loops.

agreed
Hey, Storm!
Storms can form very suddenly, look at the image of hurricane Katrina, in just a few hundred miles it went from a tropical disturbance to a cat 1 hurricane when it struck Florida. invest 97 in worth keeping a close eye on,especially if you live the SE USA.
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Hello,
I have seen people referring to a good looking tropical wave off Africa. I look at satellite images from the EATL, and I really don't see much. Am I missing something? Can someone explain?
Thanks.


Just keeping an eye on that convective area around 5N-10W.
2387. IKE
That model has shifted north more on the end of the run....

LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.5 26.7
LONG(DEG W) 80.8 82.6 84.3

2389. beell
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Good insight there........Guess we'll have to wait a few days and see what happens with it...There has been talk about how the tropics seemed a few weeks ahead of schedule (in terms of general set-up and the June/July doldrums notwithstanding).....Now that sheer levels have dropped so low between the Antilles and Africa south of 20N, I see no reason (other than possible SAL issues) why we could could not see a late July/early August long-track CV storm as opposed to the normal mid to late-August time frame.


Possibly some dry air. But I have been a bit of a downcaster of late-so a grain of salt!
Just updated:

2391. IKE
Quoting IKE:
That model has shifted north more on the end of the run....

LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.5 26.7
LONG(DEG W) 80.8 82.6 84.3



That's south of Apalachicola by about 200 miles.
2392. aquak9
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


You to funny Aquak9, morning, don't want to be flagged or banned.
so what do ya think about the wave out there?
sheri


sheri, I ain't payin' nuthin no attention, till wed afternoon. honestly kinda surprised they tasked recon.

more interested in a week, ten days far east.
2393. aquak9
Quoting beell:


Possibly some dry air. But I have been a bit of a downcaster of late-so a grain of salt!


SALT-CASTER!!!! :)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Is this what your talking about?
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 39 42 44 45 49 56 63 66
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 39 42 44 45 49 56 63 66
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 29 29 29 30 32 35 40 49 59


No, this

LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.8 21.4 22.1 22.8 23.6 24.5 25.5 26.7
LONG(DEG W) 65.0 66.0 67.0 68.1 69.1 71.2 73.3 75.4 77.3 79.1 80.8 82.6 84.3


FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI
carribean aoi better vitocity but enlongated as 97L
Quoting btwntx08:

agreed


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
637 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...IN THIS PROCESS GRADUALLY DISPLACING A TUTT LOW THAT MEANDERS TO THE NORTH. THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY DEEP...REFLECTING AT MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
FEATURE...IN INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ AND PERTURBATIONS IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES...FAVORS/SUSTAINS A WET/MOIST PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...WITH PWS OF 50-70MM DOMINATING
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN ALOFT IS TO CHANGE...THE MOISTURE IS TO PERSIST UNTIL THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TUTT...IN THE
FORM OF AN INVERTED TROUGH...IS TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER THIS WEEK. CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST OF THE INBOUND TUTT IS TO PROVIDE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS. MODELS SEEM TO COINCIDE THAT MOST ACTIVE/INTENSE CONVECTION IS TO CONTINUE BUILDING THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
INTENSE/ACTIVE PATTERN DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.

THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MODELS SHOW FAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE MORE RELIABLE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM INDICATES THAT BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WE ARE TO TRANSITION TO A WEAK CONVERGENT/NEUTRAL PATTERN...WHICH IS TO LAST FOR TEN DAYS...AND TRANSITIONING AGAIN TO A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT BY THE FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST.


Quoting aquak9:


sheri, I ain't payin' nuthin no attention, till wed afternoon. honestly kinda surprised they tasked recon.

more interested in a week, ten days far east.
Are you trying to say the invest could gain more curvature than you....LOL
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Just keeping an eye on that convective area around 5N-10W.


Ok. I see something at 5N, 30W but isn't 5N too far south for getting spin? But I do see a nice circle of convection free clouds stretching from 20N-10N-20W-30W.
Quoting msgambler:
Morning water puppy
granny you have mail.

Good Morning all.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


No, this

LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.8 21.4 22.1 22.8 23.6 24.5 25.5 26.7
LONG(DEG W) 65.0 66.0 67.0 68.1 69.1 71.2 73.3 75.4 77.3 79.1 80.8 82.6 84.3


FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI
That's an interesting track.
here is invest 97L WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPERN IF INVEST GET IN THE GOM WITH WATER TEMP AROUND 90F
Good evening Aussie.
2404. aquak9
Quoting msgambler:
Are you trying to say the invest could gain more curvature than you....LOL


most pine tree trunks have more curvature than me, hahahaha

97L to the gulf in some sorta sheared ripped-up form. More problems for development around western cuba. After that, all bets are off on development...and ending up somewhere between the LA, TX/MX border.

ya'll have a good one.
I was going through the hurricane archives last weekend and was surprised to see something I had totally missed before.. a hurricane forming over land in Canada... it amazed me.. I'm wondering what the record is for northernmost formation. Here is the track from Doc Masters archive;


Check out the track of this killer after it crosses the Great Lakes...
Warm waters await...

Quoting SeniorPoppy:
97L is getting sheared and probably won't get its act together until it reaches the Gulf. It might not even reach the Florida straits as a potent tropical wave. How this feature is an invest right now is beyond me. The feature in the Caribbean looks more promising.
Appearances are deceiving... lol. Both of these systems have some potential. Both are going to impact large portions of the basin right away, perhaps with greater force later. As long as 97L lasts through tomorrow, its appearance today is likely to be irrelevant in the long run....

Quoting Patrap:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SUN 18 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-048

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 71.5W AT 20/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 21/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Wow. That's SE Bahamas.... very near Ike's track in 08.

Quoting TampaSpin:
I am clicking a minus and Admin button everytime someone mentions [name deleted]....lay off!
+1 Me too.

Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Ok. I see something at 5N, 30W but isn't 5N too far south for getting spin? But I do see a nice circle of convection free clouds stretching from 20N-10N-20W-30W.


I made that point this morning; was surprised to see some apparent rotation in the convection even though it is way below the normal 10N where coreolis kicks in....Hard to tell at the moment whether this feature will break away from the ITCZ and rise in latitude over the next several days, or, fizzle out as Beell has noted as it moves west.
GET YOUR RAINBOOTS READY SOON.
The models all seem to take the same general path if this forms before Cuba Texas will be in trouble
2413. IKE
Matter of fact that SHIPS track is right for the Keys in 4 days with 5 knots of shear.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I made that point this morning; was surprised to see some apparent rotation in the convection even though it is way below the normal 10N where coreolis kicks in....Hard to tell at the moment whether this feature will break away from the ITCZ and rise in latitude over the next several days, or, fizzle out as Beel has noted as it moves west.


Ok thanks, that's interesting.
Ty storm, that helped quite a bit :-)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
SHEAR (KT) 20 19 27 28 25 24 22 21 16 3 5 7 8

NHC thinking that 97L will run into favorable shear in 80 hours or so.



At any rate development should be slow until then.
2412:??????
2418. Crawls
What are the odds of another hit in the TX/MX area?
Quoting Crawls:
What are the odds of another hit in the TX/MX area?


23.47353236275745%

lol, come on do you really think any of us can answer that question?
Quoting Crawls:
What are the odds of another hit in the TX/MX area?

by the looks of the models pretty good
000
NOUS42 KNHC 191300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 19 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-049

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 73.5W AT 21/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 22/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Producing some strong storms.
2426. Crawls
Quoting Hurricanes101:


23.47353236275745%

lol, come on do you really think any of us can answer that question?


LOL I wasn't looking for a specific #. I was looking for opinions and possibly historical data.
NEW BLOG
2428. IKE
SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 73.5W AT 21/1800Z. BEGIN


Looks like they canceled the one for Tuesday and have one set Wednesday in the SE Bahamas.
Quoting Crawls:


LOL I wasn't looking for a specific #. I was looking for opinions and possibly historical data.


based on current forecast tracks the chances of 97L affecting TX/MX is possible

but this is so far out, a lot can change; just keep an eye on it for now
Quoting Drakoen:




So much for downward MJO.. wow.
Quoting ElConando:
Producing some strong storms.
The actual invest isn't producing the convection, it's a TUTT low that's doing all the work.
Quoting IKE:
SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 73.5W AT 21/1800Z. BEGIN


Looks like they canceled the one for Tuesday and have one set Wednesday in the SE Bahamas.


the one for tomorrow is not cancelled, or else it would have said so in that same text
new blog
NEW BLOG
Quoting RitaEvac:
97L is in vicinity of where Rita started her trek westward and scared the BeJesus outta everybody
Looks like (at least for now) a similiar kind of tracking. Haven't looked at WV yet to see how things are progressing along the upside of 30N, though....

Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
12Z Model runs from the NHC

Geez. I hate the model runs that bring the core of the storm up over New Providence from the South.... about the worst possible approach direction for us...

Quoting Jeff9641:


Shears not that bad and is expected to weaken come Wednesday. I do think Bonnie maybe in the making in the next few days. I did call this one last week when this was a naked swirl at 17N and 33W.
LOL... some of us have been looking at this since when it came off W Africa w/ a low analysed at 20N and vigorous shower activity at 10N... have to admit it was the first one that looked like it had a chance against all the conditions. OTOH, I'm not surprised the one in front of it is kicking up some water, since it was the one that cleared out a lot of the SAL and moisturized a lot of the CATL....

Quoting TampaSpin:
I really don't think both can exist together as they are really to close. One will have to win out. Best guess is usually the system to the farthest West which would be in the Caribbean as Shear from the outflow from the Caribbean will hurt 97L as the TUTT moves out if it does.
I've been thinking about this too. I've also been wondering if a serious strengthening between 75 adn 80 west might not result in a more northerly movement, thereby separating the two systems more.

Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:
Storms can form very suddenly, look at the image of hurricane Katrina, in just a few hundred miles it went from a tropical disturbance to a cat 1 hurricane when it struck Florida. invest 97 in worth keeping a close eye on,especially if you live the SE USA.
Yeah, we were talking about that aspect of Katrina's cyclogenesis yesterday or Saturday. Rita is another storm from that year that organized relatively quickly (though not as fast as Katrina IIRC) in a similar location.

2436. Holguin
im gonna ignore the system down here, it posses no trheat to me, also, stormw said it should whitter away before it reaches Sf, so no worries, ^_^.
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Hello,
I have seen people referring to a good looking tropical wave off Africa. I look at satellite images from the EATL, and I really don't see much. Am I missing something? Can someone explain?
Thanks.

The wave came off yesterday with impressive circulation and convection. The Dust from the SAL has stopped the convection of the northern section over the Cape Verdes where the circulation is. There is still convection to the south at about 8N 25W the. These two features bear watching. 97L the current invest was the same situation. It came all the way across the atlantic as a naked circulation and is now firing convection since it is out of the dust.

The convection to the south is interesting because it is interacting with a trough in the South Atlantic. There has been some shearing to the south as well as convergence from the south.
2438. hydrus
.