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Tropical wave approaching the Caribbean a threat; Debby gets her name

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:52 PM GMT on August 23, 2006

Forget about newly-named Tropical Storm Debby, now churning west-northwestward into oblivion in the open Atlantic. The area we need to focus on today is a tropical wave near 10N 53W, about 500 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. This new wave is a threat to develop into a tropical depression later this week, once it crosses into the Caribbean. NHC has assigned this disturbance the name "Invest 97L", and has tentatively tasked the Hurricane Hunters to investigate it on Thursday afternoon.

While the wave does have the potential to eventually become a serious hurricane, it also has a number of hurdles to overcome, and it is more likely that it will never become a hurricane. Firstly, while satellite imagery does show some rotation at middle levels of the atmosphere, a pass by the QuikSCAT satellite at 5:11am EDT today showed no rotation at the surface, and just a slight wind shift. The system will have to develop a lot more spin, which will take time. There have been some intermittent bursts of heavy thunderstorm activity, which generated winds of up to 30 mph seen on the recent QuikSCAT pass, but the cloud pattern is very disorganized at present. Wind shear is favorable, a low 5-10 knots, but is a very high 30-40 knots just to the north, and any movement of this high shear zone to the south--or 97L to the north--might disrupt it. A large area of dry air and Saharan dust lies to the north, and this will interfere with development. The system should move through the Lesser Antilles Islands just north of the South American coast on Thursday and Friday, and this region of the Caribbean has been climatologically unfriendly to developing tropical storms. The presence of the South American land mass so close cuts off a key source of moisture for a developing storm, and many vigorous looking disturbances and tropical storms have died in the southeastern Caribbean.

The computer models forecast that wind shear over the south half of the Caribbean will remain low the rest of the week, so the further south 97L can stay, the more likely it is to develop. The 8pm EDT run of the GFDL last night did develop it into a tropical storm by tomorrow, but this model did a poor job with the track and took it too far north. The GFDL, UKMET, and NOGAPS models do not develop it. The Canadian model develops it early next week once it enters the central Caribbean south of Jamaica, and forecasts it will move into the Gulf of Mexico. If this system is going to develop, I suspect that the Canadian model has the right idea, and development will not occur until 97L reaches the central or western Caribbean.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Invest 97L.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance 97L approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Debby
Tropical Storm Debby got a name last night, and is a modest 45-mph tropical storm headed west-northwest towards the north central Atlantic. Debby is expected to turn more northwestward over the weekend, and get pulled northwards and recurved into the prevailing westerly winds at high latitudes over cold waters early next week. Debby is not a threat to any land areas. The storm is in a moderately favorable environment for intensification, and could eventually make it to Category 1 hurricane status.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

DESPITE ITS STRUCTURE...DEEP CONVECTION IS
W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND CONFINED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE N EXTENSION OF THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST.
503. IKE
Thanks kmanislander..I see that.

I gotta run...back in a little while.
Oh, I am sorry. I forgot we are not allowed to speculate on a potential path later in the week. Can't talk about it at all. Shut our mouths.

What rock do these people crawl out from under?
whats that site where u get all the picz
.yes gbreezegirl..ULL can cause waterspouts due to the rotating column creating rotation @ the Lower levels..just as landfalling Tropical systems spawn tornadoes in their right semicircle..except that has some elements of land friction involeved..did ya get any Pics?
We are at work.................
Nash what do you think this is, a tropical weather blog?
The shear in the caribbean looks substantial. Even if 97L survives it's trek/brush over northern venezuela that shear will kill it stone dead. There is nothing to worry about, probably.
Zap! You beter straighten up. Now watch this drive.
Well, I guess I better get back to work.
..lol @ depressed..sends zoloft in UPS overnight pkg..
That shear is forecast to weaken considerably in the coming days.
Patrap..if you're down there you should be more vocal. I've said what you just said about the New Orleans situation here several times before, but I live 200 miles away. It's really a shame because there is culture there.

Poor New Orleans, she's just been out there since you know who had Huey killed. Yes, you know who.
Patrap - No, unfortunately no pictures since I was here at work. They put the big neon Pensacola Beach sign back up today, which was damaged in Ivan. Sure hope nothing comes to blow it down again!
Patrap, I live south of the city in Plaq. parish. The levees repairs that I was refering to are miles of levee repairs not just spot repairs that are happening in the city.
One good thing for New Orleans is a lot of your violent crime came to Texas especially Houston. And most aren't expected to move back.
..has Been from Venice to Violet..St Bernard & Plaqumines have differnt Levee styles for MRGO & the Intracoastal..was referring to New Orleans & Jeff protection..But I wouldnt stay in Lower Plaq or St bernard above cat 2..Hope your recovery is going well
97L centered @11.2N55.6W and appears to be moving just due N of W
A clearly defined LLC is now apparent


97L does not yet have a closed circulation, let alone a clearly defined one.
(looks at notes..looks at future hurricane debbie...yep..doing as expected)
(looks at gs...looks at notes...yep..doing as expected)
..all I can say is that Katrina means, "Blessed Cleansing"..Im a Veteran, Tax paying law abiding citizen...not the wilding type to shoot innocent life down without cause...those souls..just plain bad seeds..And Patrap found out another thing..during the rescue efforts..Gangsters & thugs cant swim...
Fight on 97L! I want a fat hurricane. None of these wimpy Chris and Debby feeble bodies. Convection is stronger. But lots of obstacles. Wish we could cut down all wind shear and African dust. That stuff has killed everything remotely tropical this year. Maybe the underdog 97L will be the first to stuff that dust up the Atlantic's toolies.
"what website do you use to see 97L"

this has lots of sat pictures and usually has a special page for invests/storms

Link
TWC needs a makeover.
Can't remember who said this, but their advertisers have gone up a caliber or two with the tropical activity of the last couple of years. Used to be latest useless kitchen gadgets or CDs by hasbeens...You'd think they'd repay us by devoting more time to the tropics. As it is, we get the sixty seconds between 50 and 51 to the hour if they're not airing "Storm Stories." You'd think they'd recognize what made them "The Hurricane Authority!" Perhaps somebody on here should produce a cable show with nothing but the tropics during hurricane season! All Tropics...All the Time...Twenty Four Hours a Day!
Good Day to all! Is there something in GOM?? Just Checking!
does anyone think 97L will become a hurricane before Debby?
I saw that in the paper today GulfBreeze.

Anyone notice how the ULL just below P'cola is pulling in heat and moisture from the Carribean? Makes me wonder if this could be the rare ULL that works down to the surface. Mmm....
97L has a Charley path written all over it. Looks like it will be affecting the FL west coast once it rides around the high pressure.
redobson: Thanks. What is between 10/35 on Central Atlantic view?
..its getting to be school run time..Take care..keep ya Barometers handy...
littlefish, you want a strong storm...are you sick.
G35Waye: You are in the definite minority. Everyone is forecasting fish storm.
gbreezegirl-how is construction at fort pickens coming along? an open date any time soon?really miss vacationing there
littlefish is a sick puppy
I've noticed on the NRL site that the estimated winds have increased to thirty Knots.
Thanks JP. Sorry Wayne.
nice links rwdobson..... thanks
"97L centered @11.2N55.6W and appears to be moving just due N of W
A clearly defined LLC is now apparent


97L does not yet have a closed circulation, let alone a clearly defined one."


I should add that the system is improving and trying to acquire a closed surface circulation, but it is not there yet. There is clear rotation at mid level and some at the surface, and the convection near the center of the wave's rotation is increasing this afternoon.
Posted By: robinvtx at 6:46 PM GMT on August 23, 2006.
littlefish is a sick puppy

I would have to agree.... I watch the weather closely because i want to prepare I work EMA and i want to be ready but hope i dont need to
Crawfishman, call me what you want, but I want a strong storm too.
hey chicklit, i just did a copyright infrig on you and sent your twc stateement to them via email! it was a perfectly stated comment, jo
97L.....Link
Check out this mess....



Link
Why would you want a strong hurricane? THats disgusting! I love strong hurrivcanes, BUT ONLY IF THEY STAY OUT TO SEA!
Hobe: You're scarin' me! What's a copyright infrig?
97L could also take an Emily path...or it could dissipate into nothing...
GulfScotsman, Debby doesn't look like a strengthening storm to me. Debby is starting to suck in some of that dry air, not to mention head into cooler waters.
Actually 97L is looking more impressive on radar than Debby is right now. I don't know squat about meterology but the Good Doctor does and he said this morning 97L has him concerned. Too bad the weather channel doesn't realize there are a lot of people out here who actually are interested in storm genesis.
fierce..it's tongue in cheek...give it another day and a half...two days then...gs...is gonna do his hurricane debbie cheer for us
re: "Chicklit at 6:50 PM GMT on August 23, 2006.
Hobe: You're scarin' me! What's a copyright infrig?" hey, just a JOKE and it means i did something wrong, NOT you! copyright infring means stealing someone else's stuff and using it, in this case you said something so much better than i could so i copied it and emailed it to them under my email, sorry if i skert you, didn't mean to, but wanted you to know how much i liked your comment, xxooxx jo
Chicklit- don't panic.... I believe Hobe Copied you 24 hr Tropical center suggestion ( hence copyright infringment) and sent it to TWC. Not that you did anything wrong. Hobe copied you.....relax.
JP; IS there any chance Debby will affect the US, or not anymore?
Ileana is pretty. Looks like we still have the wind shear in central Caribbean ripping up the front part of the wave that passed thru the Antilles yesterday. Hope that shear dies down for big 97L to swing thru. Looks like 97L is starting to swing north just a bit. Wish the pressure would drop on that thing. Pretty weak at 1012 mbars...
The Name Chris comes to mind!


no gs....i get the crow....am a vegetarian....you..must show off your legs and do the debbie cheer..but please....wear the matching shorts/panties..whatever they're called
Thanks Hobe. I do find their milk toast annoying, too.
What the heck is going on in the gulf??? Is all hell beginning to break loose?
Posted By: Chicklit at 2:39 PM EDT on August 23, 2006.
TWC needs a makeover.


Chicklit, I agree with that post. They did not even do their Tropical Update when doing other stories and they are done and over with the update before you even have time to focus on their map. I know everyone doesn't want overkill but you would think, just give it at least 5 minutes of your time!!!

Thanks for your post.
Gams
Why would you want a strong hurricane? THats disgusting! I love strong hurrivcanes, BUT ONLY IF THEY STAY OUT TO SEA!

I like strong hurricanes because they are nice to watch and study. Show me where I said that I revel in strong storms hitting land. Stop the judgment already and try to understand...
temper temper jp....
Fierce: you are a sick person to wish for a strong storm.
it was one year ago today that the 12th tropical depression of 2005 formed over the Bahamas. Tropical Depression 12 would quickly strengthen into Hurricane Katrina, one of the most powerful hurricanes and the costliest natural disaster in United States history.
seflagamma: Yeah, it is hurricane season after all...the dopes!
Really shouldn't Debby head for Dallas? Texas could use the rain.....

Has there been a recent update on the ridge estimates, and whether the trough will capture Debby or not?

I think my last post actually got SPAM'd out of existence -- this is a tough audience!
Zap

kabraxis: How much money do you think TWC has made off of Katrina? How much have they donated to its victims? Please don't get me started. I become dangerous...
97L really looking more organized right now.
well put JP, very well put!
JP...I do not criticize the NHC. I made a personal observation. While I do have personal thoughts on the naming of this pathetic swirl of clouds they shall remain off the blog.
well then you need to get educated and visit the NHC - TWC - ACCUW and everywhere else!!!

Either that or you need to check out the water vapor loop here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

It currently shows debby's convection on decreasing.
hey ricder, they're called lollies. not sure you really cared to know that but, i don't get to answer any weather related questions so there's my 2cents.
I like strong hurricanes because they are nice to watch and study. Show me where I said that I revel in strong storms hitting land. Stop the judgment already and try to understand...

The problem with any large storm (regardless of whether it hits land or not) is that it has a major impact on people. I now have to decide over the next few days if I should arrange flights for my staff and their families off the island. Even if the storm stays >200 miles from us the seas will be too choppy to receive supply ships and we will run short of perishable goods (each year we run out of bread, milk etc. a few times during storm season).

This time of year is extremely stressful to people in the Caribbean, especially people who went through Ivan, and the thought that anyone would wish for a major storm is just a little abhorent. There is no such thing as a 'good' major storm - there will always be someone affected by it.
jp.....what makes their comments any less than anyones elses...this is actually a weather discussion blog...granted..i rarely talk about the weather..but....i can't afford to sit a the bar all day
Right in front of 97L is a bunch of moist air.
....i can't afford to sit a the bar all day


LOL!
I would still call it a pathetic swirl of clouds if it was sitting on top of ricderr's house! That's not NHC bashing or anything else. Just personal observations. Not to be taken personally of course!
It is a stressful time of year for the millions of us who lives and work in the tropics. That's why we all want to keep tabs, hour by hour, on what's going on so we can make plans. This is America, land of information!
Posted By: NearTEXcoast at 7:01 PM GMT on August 23, 2006.
Fierce: you are a sick person to wish for a strong storm.


Sure, if your definition of a sick person is one that likes to watch and study large storms... Not that feeble judgments of others hold any weight of truth in the first place.
Chicklit...this here is the WWW. This is the land of information. This is definitely not America.
It's a friggin' tropical weather blog. We like to talk about, track, pontificate upon, and brag about HURRICAINES. We like strong ones, weak ones, middle-sized ones, atlantic ones, pacific ones. Hurricaines are fascinating, terrifying, mystifying, and unpredictable. Go ahead and criticize someone or call that person sick for wishing for a strong hurricaine to track, but I've been lurking/chatting on this blog for a couple of years, and I know indisputably that the vast majority of the folks who regularly blog in here totally dig hurricaines, and the stronger the better. I need more coffee!
yes randrewl..but you'ld be jealous..cus i'd be getting the rain and you wouldn't
Randrewl: I stand corrected! Here in the western world... as Steeley Dan sings.
What would you rather I do then JP? Should I immediately start hyping up every pathetic swirl on the loops? Or should I try and keep a level head and actually speak of my own personal observations. None of the above should be taken as a personal slam to anyone that might think it is.
oreodog getting ready to get wet over here, doesnt look like will be bad as last night. just some green on the radar
LyonofLongBeach: Passionate about the weather! And what are we? Ninety-eight percent salt water?
613. HCW
The Sal north of 97L is keeping it from forming into a TD. Give it 72 hours and conditions will be much better for it to form into a TS. James

Hardcoreweather.com

Link
You ought to see what the GFDL does with Ioke:


Click for larger image

Cat 5!
Randrewl likes to be the tempering voice of reason JP. But he knows 97L is something to watch, too.
hardcore weather....where debbie is truly stripped naked
Naw, chicklit, not really passionate. I just think it's fascinating. I enjoy reading the prognoticative banter among the folks in here - most of it is well-informed and educated, some of it, well, not-so-informed. I especially like it when there is a storm out there, cuz then everyone gets really excited and emotional. It makes for a very interesting read.
I think I'm 98% Mountain Dew - at least today I am.
There are other places storms hit apart from America guys. I know youre a big place but think about us little island people, as soon as America is out of danger you write the storms off. There are other people in the world!
welshcayman, That's pretty sad that you sometimes run out of food. Storms happen for a reason. That reason is to stabilize the atmosphere. If we did not have storms human life on earth may not even be possible. If you can learn to enjoy whatever comes your way, life will be a lot sweeter. My opinion has not changed; I love the beautiful perfection of a strong thunderstorm, hurricane or tornado.
I never said anyone was hyping anything. I'm not attacking you personally. Relax. This is a great place to learn about tropical systems. That is why it is here I'm sure. If there were no contrasting points of view and everyone agreed on everything....how often would you visit here to learn anything? You wouldn't because you wouldn't be learning anything. That said...I believe this is a good time to learn about a pathetic swirl of clouds named Debby!
re: "nationalcatastrophe at 7:17 PM GMT on August 23, 2006.
what type of winds and cir. does 97L have right now" per navy 20060823.1845.goes12.x.vis1km_high.97LINVEST.30kts-1010mb-107N-547W
jo
Posted By: opsthereitis at 7:14 PM GMT on August 23, 2006.
There are other places storms hit apart from America guys. I know youre a big place but think about us little island people, as soon as America is out of danger you write the storms off. There are other people in the world!


Exactly! For example, nobody cares about Ioke because it is in the Central Pacific (soon the be West Pacific), yet it could eventually hit China or Japan, especially as the GFDL has it turn to the southwest.
This answers your question:

20060823.1845.goes12.x.vis1km_high.97LINVEST.30kts-1010mb-107N-547W

35 mph, 1010 mb
626. NYX
Actually, Andrew was not a giant in the sense of area. It was more like a very large tornado. But yes, I distinctly recall a local forcaster I will not name here encouraging people to go boating that weekend. It was in fact dismissed as mess but suddenly spun up rapidly.
Good Afternoon,

Atlantic Today
The large continental Upper Level High (ULH), that was centered over the USA has broken into two centered areas, due to a 200mb polar trough. The first one is centered over Northern Texas, the other centered 30N/75W.
On the Eastern periphery of the latter high is an elongated Upper Level trough, with an weak Mid-Upper Level Low at its southern most point near the Eastern Bahamas.

The Upper Level Low that was over Central Mexico has become broad and moved into the Pacific Ocean. An Upper Level is centered south of the Florida Panhandle. These two lows are creating an easterly flow of moisture that extends from the Pacific Ocean, across Mexico into The Bay of Campeche and Gulf of Mexico. Where the moisture meets the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba, it is forced southward towards Honduras, and back into the Pacific Ocean.

A weak surface high is centered near the Florida Keys.

The Eastern Caribbean Sea is dominated by Upper Level Ridging in associated with a large Upper Level High centered in the South Central Atlantic. The NW quadrant of the ULH and some SE flow extending from the Upper Level trough near the Bahamas is generating strong wind shear in the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea and, just north and east of the Islands.

A Tropical Wave is moving into Nicaragua.

Another Tropical Wave is moving through the Eastern Caribbean Sea, with its axis located south of Puerto Rico.

A central Atlantic Tropical Wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, with its axis along the ITCZ at 54W, has increased in shower activity today. Some slow organization is possible as the disturbed area moves west, in the upcoming days.

A subtropical surface high is located SE of Bermuda, at 30N/57W, with surface ridging seen all the way to the SE United States.

Tropical Storm Debby is located 16.8N, 31.5W, in the open Atlantic. The tropical storm is moving WNW at 17mph. It is forecast to continue moving WNW around a ridge (associated with a stronger High in the North Atlantic) then NW as the ridge is weakened by a Central Atlantic Upper Level trough.

By Weather456
Didn't Weather456 say that if Debby stayed weak and stayed south he thought it would move in a more westerly direction?
hands randrewl my magic 8 ball...look at 48 hours..and you'll see debbie dressed for the ball
Thanx MichaelSTL, so we're at 1010 mbars... It is drifting north right now, hopefully not too far or it will get one mean haircut. Gotta stay south, man. Just not too far south either:) Gonna have to thread the needle to get 97L thru the shoot. Fairly big system to try and thread thru anything though!
Does anyone have a handle on the wind shear forcast over the next few days for the middle/upper GOM in terms of the ULL twirling out there?
opsthereitis-i feel for everyone in the path of any storm. dont feel that way about everyone.
I'm not sure that anyone really does feel that way, opsthereitis. Those that seem insensitive to anyone who has ever been hurt in anyway by a tropical system are usually just people who are able to separate how they feel about human tragedy in a general sense to their passion about tropical weather and the dynamic atmospheric conditions that produce it.
They're not necessarily insensitive to the islands, florida, the gulf coast, timbuktu, or whatever, and I'm not so infused with a bloated sense of righteous indignation to believe so.
JMHO
ok whats new,

i see the GFDL is still scaring me, and now the SHIPS Intensity Model
Debby, really having a hard time out there dust dust ahead of her

97L is organizing better around that low
Coming soon to a theater near you, the story of her life, "Debby Does The Azores"
Chicklit, this is what I said earlier this week:


Future of the TD

The TD will continue to move NW around a weak high in the eastern North Atlantic, then might be forced west due to a strong high pressure ridge building in the North Central Atlantic, due to 1025mbar high that will be in the Atlantic in 48hrs.


Bottom Line
The path of TD 04 is depended on how strong the ridge is, which is depended on how strong the trough that is expected to be there is.
Nice job Weather456!
Wasn't Debby classified as a TD once she was at 35 mph? Why then is 97L already not classified as TD#5? It certainly looks more like a depression at this point than Debby did at her beginning stage. What do you think...please advise.
Chicklit thanks,

97L
I think it's because most of the circulation is at the mid-levels instead of at the surface.
Steering flow for a TD-moderate TS (1000 mb or more):


Click for full size image

More maps here (they show the location of storms as well)
Posted By: weatherbrat at 7:37 PM GMT on August 23, 2006.
Wasn't Debby classified as a TD once she was at 35 mph? Why then is 97L already not classified as TD#5? It certainly looks more like a depression at this point than Debby did at her beginning stage. What do you think...please advise.


97L has not yet been determined to have enough low level circulation to be classified as a TD.
We're getting violent here in Central Florida. Figures. I've been in a crazed mood all afternoon! Anyway, that thing spinning in the Gulf...please explain.
Guys iam trying to figure out what the GFDL model is seein takeing 97L into the Southern bahamas?
Debby is loosing her convection and is falling apart. 97L is more of a threat.
The steering flow takes it into the Caribbean; however, the exact pattern will change as the Bermuda High gets stronger or weaker. Also, the steering flow at all levels is prety much the same - west into the Caribbean (here is the flow for storms below 940 mb). Therefore, the forecasts for the location of the Bermuda High are the main factor that will determine where Debby will go.
Oopsthere, you remind me of the guy in Austin Powers who starts crying when Dr. Evil keeps ignoring his plausible suggestions. Benevolence seems to be a character trait missing in 99% of the population. Give it a rest, Ive been all over the world and everyone is the same. We all overly consider ourselves at every occasion.
Afternoon all,
is there a storm 86 now?
If 97L's convection continues wrapping around....or developing near that low pressure area then we could see a TD soon. It just needs a circulation in the lower levels. This path reminds me all to well of Ivan. Luckily the circumstances are very different right now!!!
I suspect the organizing 97L will take a step back soon as shear is about to be big problem. It should relax some by Thursday night. By Friday shear shouldn't be as big a problem. I now think Friday is the soonest this could develop.
Thanks LyonOfLongBeach but I didn't just post for the the hell of it. Im from the Canary Islands and we got hit by Delta last year so I know what its like. Its a bad thing for any place, but it just annoys me sometimes because they dont all hit the USA.
Sorry didnt want it to sound like that, I meant JUST the USA. I dont think all storms should hit there!
I forget to mention, If the Upper level High was to move north or west, it would push the shear north.

So that shear might slacken off significantly later this week, giving 97L the Upper most hand.

Notice the wind shear does not come below a certain lattitude, thats where the ULH boundary is at.

So the movement and location of that high is important.
You might want to remember that Debby is experiencing the diurnal minimum right now (add 4 hours for the time where she is), so it shouldn't look very good. Wait about 8 hours and convection will likely increase.
jphurricane2006.. weaker rain cells have a difficult time penetrating the heat islands which are the population centers. It's becoming a more common phenomenon.
668. IKE
Can someone post or link me to a good shear map for the Caribbean???

I checked the buoys east of the islands and pressures have fallen slightly from 24 hours ago.
Chicklit.......I feel you...Jax to St. Augustine has some marine warnings on the coast and the rest of Florida seems to filling up with rain clouds and storms right now...
JP: It's pouring, thunder & frequent lightening over me on the coast right now.
hey rand, wake up...you have some boomer heading your way.....jo
Link
wind shear
Shear Map:
676. IKE
Posted By: vortextrance at 2:52 PM CDT on August 23, 2006.
Link
wind shear


thanks....
Posted By: franck at 7:43 PM GMT on August 23, 2006.
jphurricane2006.. weaker rain cells have a difficult time penetrating the heat islands which are the population centers. It's becoming a more common phenomenon.


Not for my area - I get the opposite where storms turn into massive derechoes that leave a million without power and a mess everywhere (it happened last month). I have also seen them intensify on radar over the city many times; maybe it depends on the land and/or location.
so how is 97L looking any thing new
680. IKE
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 2:52 PM CDT on August 23, 2006.
IKE;

good
shear
maps

should those words be used in the same sentence; lol


Oops...sorry....I've done that before too!
just watched TWC update they said when the 5pm update comes out it may have weakened and if so it could move further west than anticipated........any opinions
Just going by what I've seen so far this year, that dry air/dust is gonna be the killer for Debby - well maybe not killer but at least inhibit her from making it to cat 1. I think that's why the convection has died. I would be surprised to see it come back much even in the maximum - may see some little flare-ups, but I just don't see it generating enough moisture on it's own to sustain any kind of developement. The Scotsman had this one called right this morning - at least so far.
<em> Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 7:49 PM GMT on August 23, 2006.
that 30kts of shear seem to be too far north to affect 97L; I personally dont think it will be a factor; norhtern edge of the clouds are at 12.5N; 30 kts of shear starts at 14N; then again we will wait and see; I think if shear were a big factor; it would have been able to get this organized to begin with


It hasn't been a factor because it hasn't been under shear over 10 knots all day, but unless that shear lifts out 97L will be dealing with atleast 20 knots shortly. Also every forecast model I have looked at doesn't have the shear going anywhere.
I should say the models don't have the shear going anywhere in the short term.
StormW - I think that one of the problems with the steering current maps is that they include the circulation of the storm itself; notice the area of higher speed around Debby to the northeast and the way that the winds curve around it (due to Debby's own circulation); the real steering flow is probably what you see farther away from Debby.
sorry i am in and out dont get to read all the comments
We're just south of Daytona. Looks like we're getting the tail end of Weatherman's system in JX. Wicked!
693. IKE
Posted By: vortextrance at 2:56 PM CDT on August 23, 2006.
I should say the models don't have the shear going anywhere in the short term.


The circulation w/97L looks so big, not sure even shear could destroy it...that is one HUGE circulation.
If I am reading the shear map right, with 0.381 in the central GOM at present, things may get interesting in the Gulf/Florida over the next 48 hours right?
Guys right now what iam seeing with 97L is a circulation at the mid-levels, This afternoon it looks a little better organized and some slow intensification is possible as 97L will be moving over warm STT'S and a low shear environment...a track to the W -WNW is very possible in the next 2-3 days.

Here is a close up visible pic of 97L...



no problem JP i am just at work so I read what I can.........I live on the COast and work EMA all the comments i get to read have been very interesting......thanks
Posted By: hurricane23 at 3:36 PM EDT on August 23, 2006.
Guys iam trying to figure out what the GFDL model is seein takeing 97L into the Southern bahamas?

Have you taken a look at the last time it was run? According to the graphic Dr. Masters posted in his blog, it hasnt been run since 8 PM LAST NIGHT...it doesnt take a rocket scientist to figure that one out...it hasnt run since...maybe that is why it "looks" like it is to far SE and off, however at 8 PM last night it was probably in the correct area...just my $0.02, now why it took it into the Bahamas on the run? I dont know...just looked at it, and it started the system off as a 51 knot TS...so disregard that 8 PM run...
hlpisuzu there's no need to be rude jesus....my bad.
Posted By: Zaphod at 3:02 PM EDT on August 23, 2006.
Really shouldn't Debby head for Dallas?


Would the headlines then say "Debby Does Dallas"?

Sorry.

So, is 97L going fooey or what? I'm getting conflicting reports.
The lightening just struck so close that the hair on my arms went up and my lamp crackled!
hurricane23 at 8:02 PM GMT on August 23, 2006.
Guys right now what iam seeing with 97L is a circulation at the mid-levels, This afternoon it looks a little better organized and some slow intensification is possible as 97L will be moving over warm STT'S and a low shear environment...a track to the W -WNW is very possible in the next 2-3 days.


I concur and believe we're already starting to see a slight WNW movement.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 7:58 PM GMT on August 23, 2006.
20kts of shear doesnt guarantee that a storm will not develop; also as 456 mentioned earlier; the shear is forecasted to lift out by later this week; the fact that it is further south gives 97L; through all odds a chance to develop before it reaches the islands


Didn't say 20knots of shear guarantees a storm can't develop.. I know what 456 has been saying, I have been saying the exact same thing about the shear since yesterday morning. It is possible it develops before the islands, just not likely imo.
I do still like the long term prospects of 97L over Debby.
right now the spin iam seeing with 97L looks like its not at the surface yet...It may very well work its way down to it in the next day or to as conditions appear pretty favorable for some slow development.
Hello
Ok, so check out these long-range forecast maps showing the 500 mb heights. First, the 6-10 day map (Aug 29-Sept 2)

6-10 day

Note the ridge over Texas is continuous all the way across the Gulf and past Florida. With this pattern, any storm from 97L would be steered west into Mexico.

Now the 8-14 day...Link

Note how the ridge is split in two, and a trough (or at least a weakness) is there over Florida and the east coast. Under this situation, a storm could ride up over Florida and up the east coast...
714. IKE
Posted By: GulfScotsman at 3:07 PM CDT on August 23, 2006.
Conditions at 41101 as of
1900 GMT on 08/23/2006:

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1012.4 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -1.6 mb ( Falling )


That pressure is falling off....and that's over 100 miles North of 97L.
jp
why do you say that the circulation is at the mid levels ?
What about the low that is along the wave ?
Is that not at the surface and if so why is the circulation associated with the low not at the surface with it ?
Or are you saying there is no closed low ?

grateful for an explanation
jp

wasnt that written hrs ago ?
Hurricane 23, how do you surmise that the circulation is in the mid instead of lower. When I look at the rgb loop, if you had asked me, I would have said it's in the lower levels. What shows you its a mid level circulation?
I thought Debby would be one to watch... apparently she's not much of a threat
you can get 97L models here

Link
..can see Clint Eastwood as Philo Betto driving truck & saying.."Right Turn Debbie"!.....
admittedly I am only an armchair wannabe when it comes to the tropics but I have followed the tropics for decades and if there is no low level circulation with 97L it is certainly one of the more robust systems I have ever seen without one
..once again.. Debbieforecast to be Low Cloud swirl offs Azores in 5-6 days...like in da creme soda"s demise...
729. IKE
"8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 31 - SEP 06, 2006: DURING WEEK 2... THE MODEL RUNS ARE CONTINUING THE GENERAL THEME OF A WEST COAST TROUGH - GREAT PLAINS RIDGE - AND EAST COAST TROUGH..."...that from the climate prediction center.
sort of a cycle though, where if debby weakens and thus moves west, there's even more dry air/dust to deal with, leading to more weakening...
the big question could be, how far south does the East Coast trough go?
New blog up
Yes, it appears Debbbie is weakining, but is it possible for Debbie to make it far west enough to make it a threat? The models don't think so.

Link

Lank

Lonk

Note how the models that bring Debbie west also dissipate it.
Hey Guys - so Debbie is off it's original track or still on track from before?
1900hurricane at 8:23 PM GMT on August 23, 2006.
Yes, it appears Debbbie is weakining, but is it possible for Debbie to make it far west enough to make it a threat? The models don't think so.


Here's why:
Link
Uh-oh. 97L is getting really fat and is not nearly as tall as it was this morning and yesterday. Looking like a sandwich, not a doughnut... I want a nice round system. None of this flat squeezed-out crap.
so just took a look at the weather.com map (btw - talking about pop-ups whenyou go to the site...ugh) - animated it and MAN OH MAN there is alot popping up all over the place...is that blob of storms off the florida coast just storms?
It seems like 97L is starting to "thread through the eye of the needle" between land and the shear to the North...........Will it even make it through to the Gulf?
97L doesn't look real healthy right now. But it looks healthier than Debby. Maybe it'll take a Dennis track?

MEMORANDUM

FROM: Tampa, FL
TO: Wants-To-Be-Ernesto (AL97)
DATE: August 23, 2006

You are hereby formally invited to, and your services are solicited by, the fine city of Tampa, FL, which is badly in need of a nice power wash after this hot, humid summer so far.

Sincerely,

TampaWeatherBuff
a.k.a., "Cap'n Dan"
747. Wx35
man the waters in the GOM are really warm. If a storm gets in there it good get really ugly what do you think

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

depends on the upper level winds...I do not think heat content will be an issue. If it does make it..Notice the ULL to its north increasing the shear to its north. Will the ULL back off or does this pull a Chris....hmmmm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html