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Tropical wave 92L weakens but could bring heavy rains to Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:23 PM GMT on June 20, 2010

The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday is continuing westward at 10 - 15 mph, but has grown very disorganized. The National Hurricane Center is no longer interested enough in this wave to classify it as an "invest" worthy of generating computer forecasts for. Today through Monday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba. If there is anything left of 92L after crossing these mountains, it may have the opportunity to develop beginning on Tuesday, when it will enter a region of wind shear less than 20 knots near central Cuba. None of our reliable computer forecast models is calling for 92L to develop once it reaches this region of lower wind shear. I give 92L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The storm could bring heavy rains of up to four inches to Haiti today and Monday. Rain of four inches are probably the lower threshold for life-threatening floods to occur in the Haiti earthquake zone, and this disturbance poses the most serious flooding threat Haiti has seen since the earthquake.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico from Invest 92L.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and ECMWF models call for a possible tropical depression to form in the central or western Caribbean next weekend, 6 - 8 days from now.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook calls for a continued summertime weather pattern of weak winds over the Gulf of Mexico during the coming two weeks.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument of the Deepwater Horizon oil slick from Saturday, June 19, 2010.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Happy Father's Day, all you fathers out there, and I'll have an update on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting TampaSpin:


And where do you know your info from because, this is not what an Engineer has told me....just sayin


I agree, they discussed it on the news the other day. The desal plant could be in trouble...also, it could be a problem for the power plant down at Big Bend.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
No info lol, just really really surprised that something like that would shut down such a facility.


Thats what i thought.....So why say it won't if you don't know...It was not designed to filter out oil...just salt....the oil will really mess it up...

oil spill update: tampa bay seawater desalination plant

Tampa Bay Water operates its Seawater Desalination Plant off the coast of Tampa Bay, which prompts concerns about possible oil-spill effects to our regional water supply system. Tampa Bay Water expects the regional water supply to remain reliable with little to no effect from the spill.

Tampa Bay Water continues to watch and monitor the movement of the oil and stands prepared to take emergency measures, if any are necessary. We subscribe to an early alert weather service that provides us with constant data on the oil spill and its forecasted movement. If the oil slick does travel far enough south and east to enter Tampa Bay, we will shut down the desalination plant completely to avoid the potential of oil getting into the operations. We will not operate any part of the plant until the oil is cleaned up and no longer poses a risk to water quality and the facility.
2503. MahFL
Near Jacksonville, FL.
2504. 7544
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
At 144...

img src="NOGAPS 144" alt="" />




is that 93l over fla or a pre 94l lol
2505. Patrap
HH flights schedules or tasked mission are posted on the NHC Page..
Quoting myway:
Boogety Boogety Boogety...I guess were racing.
I just hope this storm doesn't turn left! LOL...
2507. hydrus
Quoting stillwaiting:




charley and gustav are good examples of this!!!
Yes they are. And there have been many others just like them in the past.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Where are you? I'm about 20 miles East of P-cola


In Fort Walton Beach myself!
2509. Patrap
HH flights schedules or tasked mission are posted on the NHC Page..

They can be NOAA or AF flights


NHC Aircraft Reconnaissance



Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 201430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SUN 20 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-020

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
Blogger rule #1 if you don't know what you are talking about and you challenge another Blogger about something posted......Thats not good!
Quoting 69Viking:


In Fort Walton Beach myself!


Sure hope it doesn't head our way
Quoting largeeyes:
Was at the beach here in NC this weekend. Water temps already at 82, incredible for mid June. Supposed to hit upper 90's air temp this week....We're baking!
WOW 82F in NC THAT IS VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ITS ONLY JUNE 21..WOW.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Sure hope it doesn't head our way


Better your way then my way......LOL....your use too it.....LOL...jUST KIDDING OF COURSE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:



Pretty much.


I thought he would have hyped this to the Central Gulf.


LOL! Some of his clients are oil companies, he's not going to predict doomsday (Yet) on companies that pay him. Part of the reason I dont like the guy, he's a "corporate" met so to speak and i think that can influence his decisions and hype
2517. JDSmith
Quoting 69Viking:


In Fort Walton Beach myself!


You check out the tar balls washing up on that beach beside the Destin bridge? It's frightening.
2518. 900MB
Storm-
We have incredible TCHP, hot SSTs, not much shear, moist environment. I don't see any real negatives here...Please let me know what could stop this from developing into a major?
Thanks!

P.S. Sorry, not trying to hype here, just saying if it actually organizes, what's to stop it from blowing up?
2519. ssmate
Quoting kensweat:
By the way this is Taco :o)
I'm at work and had to use Bosses Computer.... LOL
He is off today

Taco :o)


Taco, get him banned right before you log off.
Ain't nuthin yet.

Thanks for that info Pat!
2521. Patrap
Oil vey...
Quoting TampaSpin:


Better your way then my way......LOL....your use too it.....LOL...jUST KIDDING OF COURSE


Not really, LOL... I haven't experienced one yet, only been here for three years. I'm more worried about the oil than the wind and after effects. Although, I'd take the hit before a city that would have fresh water issues.
Quoting Patrap:
Oil vey...


Your yiddish is showing...
2525. Grothar
We have our first yellow (indicating cold cloud tops) on the Navy site. The just appeard from one frame to another, rather quickly.

Ahh seems like a busy week on the blog. A possible hurricane in the gulf, a storm brewing by Florida. I can see many bans coming in this period of time.
2527. Drakoen
Cannot believe what I am seeing on the ECMWF. A 950mb major hurricane going ov er the oil spill and impacting the Gulf Coast. Dreadful run.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:



Pretty much.


I thought he would have hyped this to the Central Gulf.


Maybe you don't know him nearly as well as you think.





Quoting Kanc2001

LOL! Some of his clients are oil companies, he's not going to predict doomsday (Yet) on companies that pay him. Part of the reason I dont like the guy, he's a "corporate" met so to speak and i think that can influence his decisions and hype

He's never shied away from predicting Gulf Coast landfalls before.

You guys don't read his blog everyday. If you did you would know how silly you sound.

I'm sure that BP will be very "SLICK" on how they will handle this
Quoting ssmate:


Taco, get him banned right before you log off.
Just wondering why would I do that????

Taco :o)
2532. Walshy
Quoting 900MB:
Storm-
We have incredible TCHP, hot SSTs, not much shear, moist environment. I don't see any real negatives here...Please let me know what could stop this from developing into a major?
Thanks!



Not storm, but I say would numerous things could. If I were a down-caster, I would say the following:

1. Hitting Land, i.e. Yucatan
2. Not taking advantage of the elements, just because there is a map saying a cat5 is possible in this area doesn't mean it will strengthen to one.

2533. Drakoen
I also see we have 93L which is a nice area of convection in the eastern Caribbean. That's a little unexpected I thought they would wait a bit. I guess they are tagging invests faster this year than previous years.
2534. Patrap
Oil Zilla is a Lurking under the GOM..in the TCHP.

Best make preps like one hasnt before.

2010 is going to be a Playa among seasons
Just waiting for Dr. M's take but I agree that he might indicate that there are no real limits on this one at the moment if a TD forms over the next 24-48 hours in these very favorable conditions.
be back later, gotta run some errands.
From JB's blog.

Comment on tropics:

The large scale has lined up into a favorable pattern for gulf or carribean development and 92L , though not the sole reason, is the first part of the process that should get this started. The pattern is complex, but the development of low pressure in the western Caribbean late week and subsequent northwest to west move would be something that is on concern to me. Right now the track would be more likely toward Texas or Mexico since the development would be fairly far south, but I have to see where all this congeals to make the call later this week

Who here really believes they are better at long-range forcasting than JB?
2539. BFG308
If the oil slick does travel far enough south and east to enter Tampa Bay, we will shut down the desalination plant completely to avoid the potential of oil getting into the operations. We will not operate any part of the plant until the oil is cleaned up and no longer poses a risk to water quality and the facility.


Does Tampa area have a water treatment facility or do they only supply from the gulf, and release back to the gulf?
2540. hydrus
Link ......Good outflow with 93L.
I miss OZ. He added alot to this blog.
2544. Grothar
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
I'm sure that BP will be very "SLICK" on how they will handle this


Just what we need another punner on the blog! But I agree with you, seems those BP executives are all a slippery lot.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
From JB's blog.

Comment on tropics:

The large scale has lined up into a favorable pattern for gulf or carribean development and 92L , though not the sole reason, is the first part of the process that should get this started. The pattern is complex, but the development of low pressure in the western Caribbean late week and subsequent northwest to west move would be something that is on concern to me. Right now the track would be more likely toward Texas or Mexico since the development would be fairly far south, but I have to see where all this congeals to make the call later this week

Who here really beleives they are better at long-range forcasting than JB?


That was an old blog from Fri or Sat.
Quoting JDSmith:


You check out the tar balls washing up on that beach beside the Destin bridge? It's frightening.


I patrolled 10 miles of Beach on an ATV Sunday morning ending at the Destin West Jetti and no signs of oil the entire trip. I guess a few patches of oil came in last week but they got it cleaned up and not most of our area is in good shape until the next wave of oil, time will tell.
Quoting Jeff9641:


That was an old blog from Fri or Sat.



Wrong Jeff. From last night. He mis-dated it.
2549. Patrap
WHo's JB?

I thought they made Scotch ?
962mb Cane in the Oily waters of the GOM if yhe Euro is correct

2551. Drakoen
SHIPS ofrecast for very low shear and High Heat content.


* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL932010 06/21/10 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 46 56 65 70 76 80 84 88
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 46 56 65 70 76 80 84 88
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 41 49 59 70 80 90 96

SHEAR (KT) 7 7 12 9 5 7 7 5 8 4 2 6 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -4 -6 -3 -4 -2 -2 -4 -4 -3 -5 -4
SHEAR DIR 212 168 172 185 266 183 285 263 301 213 291 229 348
SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6
POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 149 149 149 150 151 152 154 155 159 160
ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 151 149 148 147 146 145 143 144 145 147 146
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 8 8 10 10 12 10 12 10
700-500 MB RH 83 84 85 82 81 80 78 74 72 68 67 64 64
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 67 84 82 85 80 80 67 71 65 69 57 52 26
200 MB DIV 83 78 83 84 80 79 58 44 23 7 -11 -3 3
LAND (KM) 238 207 178 195 201 326 231 192 276 265 212 241 228
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.3 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.5
LONG(DEG W) 67.2 68.3 69.4 70.7 71.9 74.3 76.6 78.6 80.3 81.7 83.1 84.3 85.4
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 12 12 11 9 7 7 7 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 67 56 64 76 76 70 82 113 104 83 91 87 84
2553. Walshy
Quoting StormW:


?????





I try. I try.
Quoting Patrap:
WHo's JB?

I thought they made Scotch ?



I'm a "Dewer's" man myself....
2555. JDSmith
Quoting 69Viking:


I patrolled 10 miles of Beach on an ATV Sunday morning ending at the Destin West Jetti and no signs of oil the entire trip. I guess a few patches of oil came in last week but they got it cleaned up and not most of our area is in good shape until the next wave of oil, time will tell.


I went out last night, and found them on the beach to the west of the Jetty. Should I have called someone?
2556. SpFox
Homemade comparative June 21 2010 vs June 21 2005

Quoting BFG308:


Does Tampa area have a water treatment facility or do they only supply from the gulf, and release back to the gulf?
Tampa gets all of its water from the Hillsborough River and St. Pete/Clearwater gets their water from wells within Hillsborough Co and the desalinization plant.
how is the oil in grand isle now, even worse? We dont hear about it now anymore since it is hitting us here in fla. just wondered if currents are affecting it differently aqnd making it less. or is it the same. or more?
Quoting Drakoen:
Cannot believe what I am seeing on the ECMWF. A 950mb major hurricane going ov er the oil spill and impacting the Gulf Coast. Dreadful run.


That doesn't look good at all. Tampa would have oil all over if that track verifies.
Quoting Patrap:
WHo's JB?

I thought they made Scotch ?


Nah, this guy drinks it...
Quoting JDSmith:


I went out last night, and found them on the beach to the west of the Jetty. Should I have called someone?



St Andrews?
2562. centex
I've read that somewhere else.
Quoting Drakoen:
Cannot believe what I am seeing on the ECMWF. A 950mb major hurricane going ov er the oil spill and impacting the Gulf Coast. Dreadful run.


Yes that is a terrible run, but I still think it means nothing without a defined LLC, plus model runs can change once they send out the hurricane hunters to gather observations of the environment around the storm. So nothing is set in stone, hell it still has a chance to curve out to sea.
2564. aquak9
Quoting StormW:


I'll have one with ya!


it's five'o'clock somewhere...
2565. 900MB
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
962mb Cane in the Oily waters of the GOM if yhe Euro is correct



That is one nasty scenario! I would figure that plenty of oil would be tossed into the loop current. Not good for Fla or anyone else for that matter.
2566. Patrap
Quoting twhcracker:
how is the oil in grand isle now, even worse? We dont hear about it now anymore since it is hitting us here in fla. just wondered if currents are affecting it differently aqnd making it less. or is it the same. or more?



Grand Isle Proper in the front ,,is getting some oil..but the Main influx seems to be near Barataria Bay.

Quoting Jeff9641:


That was an old blog from Fri or Sat.

No it's a new entry from 930 this morning.
2569. JDSmith
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



St Andrews?


Destin.
Quoting 69Viking:


I patrolled 10 miles of Beach on an ATV Sunday morning ending at the Destin West Jetti and no signs of oil the entire trip. I guess a few patches of oil came in last week but they got it cleaned up and not most of our area is in good shape until the next wave of oil, time will tell.


Hiya! Long time, no see...

Morning Storm, and all. I see we have 93L to discuss.
2571. Walshy
Quoting Funkadelic:


Yes that is a terrible run, but I still think it means nothing without a defined LLC, plus model runs can change once they send out the hurricane hunters to gather observations of the environment around the storm. So nothing is set in stone, hell it still has a chance to curve out to sea.



Terrible run or not, a storm with this strength will move the oil or cause BP to temporarily leave the GOM.
I still miss Oz......He likes scotch too.
Bill Clinton likes Jack.
I like booze....
Quoting Funkadelic:


Yes that is a terrible run, but I still think it means nothing without a defined LLC, plus model runs can change once they send out the hurricane hunters to gather observations of the environment around the storm. So nothing is set in stone, hell it still has a chance to curve out to sea.
Well, I can almost promise you it won't be going out to sea... Look at steering
2574. aquak9
drakoen- when you start posting SHIPs, you're scarin' me.
Quoting StormW:


Bingo! Good for R.I.


Wow, SHIPS really likes that blob !
2576. Drakoen
Quoting Drakoen:
Curving bands on the north half of the storm
Long range down the road, showing NW/WNW movement once it gets to Yucatan.
2579. Patrap
Cue da Jaws Movie theme score...


morning all. the set up for 93 is not looking good.
High pressure ridge steering looks to drive this thing whatever it becomes....Louisiana bound
2582. Drakoen
Quoting aquak9:
drakoen- when you start posting SHIPs, you're scarin' me.


There is really nothing to stop this system from organizing and strengthening from what I see.
2584. hydrus
Quoting StormW:
Whoever did something to Mother Natures Cornflakes...please apologize immediately!!
I would say b.p. is at fault for the corn flake thing. I also would say that quite a few models have a storm rolling over the oil disaster area. What a coincidence.
This looks bad for the GOM.
OMG...

It's not just the gulf and central atlantic that are hotter this year.

Look at the north atlantic near iceland, and even look at the southern hemisphere just south of the equator...It's several degrees hotter than 2005 in several regions.
2587. hydrus
Quoting Drakoen:
It is a healthy looking blob for sure.
Quoting JDSmith:


I went out last night, and found them on the beach to the west of the Jetty. Should I have called someone?


I volunteer for the Eglin Natural Resources and here are some numbers to call if you find oil or oiled wildlife.

Report that information on your cell phone to #DEP
Or on regular land line: 877 272-8335
Quoting Drakoen:


There is really nothing to stop this system from organizing and strengthening from what I see.


The Ops run of the EURO is a major outlier compared to its ensemble members.

Point of initation of the LLC is key to where this thing will end up.

151

WHXX01 KWBC 211310

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1310 UTC MON JUN 21 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100621 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100621 1200 100622 0000 100622 1200 100623 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.0N 67.2W 13.7N 69.3W 14.4N 71.6W 15.2N 73.9W

BAMD 13.0N 67.2W 13.8N 69.3W 14.5N 71.5W 15.3N 73.7W

BAMM 13.0N 67.2W 13.6N 69.4W 14.3N 71.9W 15.1N 74.3W

LBAR 13.0N 67.2W 14.0N 69.6W 15.2N 72.2W 16.2N 74.7W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100623 1200 100624 1200 100625 1200 100626 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.8N 76.1W 16.8N 80.1W 17.8N 83.3W 19.1N 85.7W

BAMD 15.9N 75.7W 16.7N 78.9W 17.6N 81.7W 18.6N 84.1W

BAMM 15.7N 76.6W 16.6N 80.3W 17.4N 83.1W 18.5N 85.4W

LBAR 16.9N 77.1W 18.0N 81.1W 19.7N 84.0W 22.2N 85.5W

SHIP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 88KTS

DSHP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 88KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 67.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 64.5W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT

LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 60.5W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


2592. BFG308
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Tampa gets all of its water from the Hillsborough River and St. Pete/Clearwater gets their water from wells within Hillsborough Co and the desalinization plant.


Well, I don't know anything about desalinization, but I would think a normal water treatment facility may or may not have an issue with oily water, depending on what kind of treatment they use. They can get a lot of crap out of water. Unfortunately, that doesn't help the wildlife in the area...
2593. MahFL
I think if the storm goes over the leak site, they will have to remove the cap, so it will be leaking uncontained for a few days....is that right ?
Quoting CaneWarning:


That doesn't look good at all. Tampa would have oil all over if that track verifies.



Just curious. Why would a hurricane hitting the north gulf cause oil to be in Tampa?

Thanks,

Kelley
Quoting hurricane23:


The Ops run of the EURO is a major outlier compared to its ensemble members.



Euro isn't the only model developing this system.
2596. Patrap
DeepwaterHorizonJIC — June 20, 2010 — The Coast Guard flies pelicans rehabilitated from the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill from New Orleans to Texas to be released into the wild June 20, 2010. U.S. Coast Guard video by Petty Officer 2nd Class Gina Ruoti.


Gotta tell ya this looks like a FL Panhandle storm given the weakness in the ridge at day 6 due to a trough passing by to the north.
2600. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:


Nah, this guy drinks it...
The big guys at b.p. will be drinkin it if the ECMWF model verifies.
If I was invested in the market/Wall Street. I'd get out now while you can. Storm heading for spill and things are going to get outta control.
2602. 900MB
Quoting StormW:


If nothing changes...nothing!


I was afraid that you would say that!


No sign of anything closed with 93L.
2604. Patrap
Quoting RitaEvac:
I wonder if a blogger like me can cause the stock market to crash.

If I was invested in the market/Wall Street. I'd get out now while you can. Storm heading for spill and things are going to get outta control.


What a moronic post.

Yeah,..the Western World awaits yer next post.

LOL
A major hurricane to the FL Panhandle could be in the works.
Quoting smmcdavid:


Hiya! Long time, no see...

Morning Storm, and all. I see we have 93L to discuss.


Let's try this again... :)
Quoting BFG308:


Well, I don't know anything about desalinization, but I would think a normal water treatment facility may or may not have an issue with oily water, depending on what kind of treatment they use. They can get a lot of crap out of water. Unfortunately, that doesn't help the wildlife in the area...
I heard from TampaSpin that they would close down the plant if oil was near.
2608. Drakoen
Quoting hurricane23:


The Ops run of the EURO is a major outlier compared to its ensemble members.



I would expect that.
Quoting smmcdavid:


Hiya! Long time, no see...

Morning Storm, and all. I see we have 93L to discuss.


Yep, I've been lost in some other forums over the Winter but back here now to keep an eye on all things Tropical concerning the GOM which is really warm for June this year, it could be down right scary by July, August and September!
2610. Patrap
Things been outta control in the GOM with BP since 20 April.
I feel like crying this Morning Hurricanes are forming to the east of us and to the west of us We have what we call hurricane weather today in Belize when winds come out of the west and the Hummidity is terrible
I see. Thanks for your response Storm :)
Not looking too good for the Cayman Islands right now. Didn't Gustav form in this general area ?
INV/93/XL
MARK
13.1N/66.3W
Quoting Patrap:


What a moronic post.

Yeah,..the Western World awaits yer next post.

LOL


lol, expect the unexpected Pat
Quoting RitaEvac:
I wonder if a blogger like me can cause the stock market to crash.

If I was invested in the market/Wall Street. I'd get out now while you can. Storm heading for spill and things are going to get outta control.


???
2591:

If LBAR holds true, it should thread the Yucatan channel Ivan or Camille style...

The other Extreme is BAMM, which puts it on a Wilma course to Cozumel area(near term).
2618. bwi
For what it's worth, winds calm or light this morning at at Bonaire. Some southerly or SSE at the buoy at 15n 67.5w.
2619. JLPR2
O_O



When did this happen? :O I didnt thought it would look so good so fast
Quoting Jeff9641:
A major hurricane to the FL Panhandle could be in the works.


Need to wait until the storm initializes first before predicting track trends. Now we just wait and see.
Before this season is over we all might b alcoholics
European model shows hurricane by June 29

Link

Quoting nishinigami:



Just curious. Why would a hurricane hitting the north gulf cause oil to be in Tampa?

Thanks,

Kelley


Take a 300 mile wide storm with accordant winds, pushing a CAT3 or 4 stirm surge in friont of it...fill the sink at home, then take your hand, cup it and move your hand from front to back in the sink. Where does the water go, and how does it react to the movement of your hand...THAT'S why Tampa will get oil...and Galveston
Quoting Drakoen:


I would expect that.

But really the more reliable one.
93L looks like the real deal

already appears to be organizing nicely

Again with the track though, we have to wait and see what the models say once we get a defined center
2619:

When did this happen?


Over night, a few hours after the 9-12 central window I originally gave.

Took the storms a little longer to line up than I had originally estimated.
2627. fire635
Quoting hurricane23:


The Ops run of the EURO is a major outlier compared to its ensemble members.



Thats a little bit of good news
Quoting smmcdavid:


Let's try this again... :)


Hey! How are you? Long time!
No LLC yet or even signs of one trying to form and everyone is having a panic attack. Breathe, people. It's a long season.
Quoting helove2trac:
Before this season is over we all might b alcoholics


Already started over the oil spill.....Hope this season won't take me over the edge....
It seems that I keep scaring the storms away from South Florida.....I just hope that I can scare the oil away as well!!
Quoting oddspeed:
European model shows hurricane by June 29

Link



very close to the oil too
Quoting nishinigami:



Just curious. Why would a hurricane hitting the north gulf cause oil to be in Tampa?

Thanks,

Kelley


A hurricane going West of the spill will push the oil North and East towards Florida based on the rotation of the storm, if it goes East of the pill it should push the oil North and West towards Texas and LA.
Quoting Floodman:


Take a 300 mile wide storm with accordant winds, pushing a CAT3 or 4 stirm surge in friont of it...fill the sink at home, then take your hand, cup it and move your hand from front to back in the sink. Where does the water go, and how does it react to the movement of your hand...THAT'S why Tampa will get oil...and Galveston


It would likely also give oil to the east coast since it will get into the current and loop around.
2636. Drakoen
I like using this for IR imagery since you can a nice IR with surface observations

Link
Our local Brighthouse Met for ECFL doesn't know we have an invest. He is calling it "wave" and says shear will break it up.
Quoting Jeff9641:
A major hurricane to the FL Panhandle could be in the works.

to early to tell if its going to happen
2639. cg2916
Quoting JLPR2:
O_O



When did this happen? :O I didnt thought it would look so good so fast


It's 93L, different system, it's a wave.
2640. Dakster
Quoting Patrap:


What a moronic post.

Yeah,..the Western World awaits yer next post.

LOL


I agree -- Good thing this is a weather blog.

Anything developing or that we think might develope in the tropical Atlantic? Or just a wait and see mode?
Quoting Floodman:


Take a 300 mile wide storm with accordant winds, pushing a CAT3 or 4 stirm surge in friont of it...fill the sink at home, then take your hand, cup it and move your hand from front to back in the sink. Where does the water go, and how does it react to the movement of your hand...THAT'S why Tampa will get oil...and Galveston


Thanks for the visual Floodman :) I think I understand now :)

Kelley
Looking at the satellite loops, I would guess that a recon fight would be scheduled for tomorrow.
2643. cg2916
Quoting oddspeed:
European model shows hurricane by June 29

Link



You can actually see an eye!
Quoting largeeyes:
No LLC yet or even signs of one trying to form and everyone is having a panic attack. Breathe, people. It's a long season.


You are absolutely right and this should be reposted.

First off we do not know if development is guaranteed.

Second while the 00Z run of the ECMWF is pretty scary, it is one of 3 different tracks over the last 3 runs. By 12Z it could easily shift it into Mexico.

Just wait and see how this all plays out in terms of development first before we start to raise the warning signs
Quoting Chicklit:
Our local Brighthouse Met for ECFL doesn't know we have an invest. He is calling it "wave" and says shear will break it up.


Is it pre-recorded? I know our local Brighthouse station normally records stuff and plays it for a few hours before updating.
2646. leo305
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html

the system behind it has a very strong vortocity, that's the one that models develop after 93L.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Already started over the oil spill.....Hope this season won't take me over the edge....




LOL
Quoting 69Viking:


A hurricane going West of the spill will push the oil North and East towards Florida based on the rotation of the storm, if it goes East of the pill it should push the oil North and West towards Texas and LA.


A Louisiana track would split the difference...that would be the most magnanimous tracks, making sure that everyone gets oil
Quoting CybrTeddy:


No sign of anything closed with 93L.


That is from last night at 2 UTC.

You need the descending pass for this morning and that won't come out for a while yet.
Looks like Jamaica and Cayman will have to keep a close eye on this one. Any system approaching from the SE like this with a favorable environment is enough to raise an eye brow or two. No doubt, this will be long hurricane season. (sigh)
Does anyone have a link for ECMWF.... I want to see what everyone is talking about....thank you~!
Um...

This is happening right smack in the middle of the John Hope "dead zone"...
2653. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:
A major hurricane to the FL Panhandle could be in the works.


I noticed this in this mornings discussion from Tallahassee,FL...

LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST
WEST OF THE LOCAL REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST AND
CENTER OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS DURING THAT PERIOD SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER
AIR WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ON MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN
AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
RETURNS.
2654. Drakoen
Does not appear that 93L has a closed surface low yet based on easterly wind reports out of the ABC islands located south of the system; however, the system is a sharp tropical wave.
Hey Floodman... good to see you.

I'm attempting to survive this season and heat all with baby #2 due in September! It should be interesting... How are you holding up these days?
Quoting nishinigami:


Thanks for the visual Floodman :) I think I understand now :)

Kelley


You're welcome, nishinigami...I could have done some of the math for you (we atmo for the serious math) but the visual, I find, tends to be better at getting the magnitude of this thing happening across
12z Nam @ 72hrs.....
Sorry pulled up the wrong page - LOL!

2659. Levi32
Good morning all. I see we have 93L already.
2660. Dakster
FLOODMAN!!!

Ok. I can see that we have a new invest called Panic 93L in the making...

Quoting Hurricanes101:


You are absolutely right and this should be reposted.

First off we do not know if development is guaranteed.

Second while the 00Z run of the ECMWF is pretty scary, it is one of 3 different tracks over the last 3 runs. By 12Z it could easily shift it into Mexico.

Just wait and see how this all plays out in terms of development first before we start to raise the warning signs

true
Thank you 69Viking. So basically, it is a no-win situation no matter where it goes :(


Kelley
Quoting kmanislander:


That is from last night at 2 UTC.

You need the descending pass for this morning and that won't come out for a while yet.


Your right, my bad. The gaps in resolution on the ASCAT is terrible.

My offer too quickie camera on a beer can ontop a rocket made of gasoline and car parts to replace QuikSCAT still stands.
Quoting kmanislander:


That is from last night at 2 UTC.

You need the descending pass for this morning and that won't come out for a while yet.
hello kman this one will have to be watched brother its gonna happen
Quoting IKE:


I noticed this in this mornings discussion from Tallahassee,FL...

LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST
WEST OF THE LOCAL REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST AND
CENTER OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS DURING THAT PERIOD SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER
AIR WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ON MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN
AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
RETURNS.


Wouldn't that mean a track turning N.E.?
2666. IKE
2657...that's the 12Z NAM.
2667. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all. I see we have 93L already.


Take a look at the Euro...
2668. Patrap
Widespread Panic 2010
Quoting CaneWarning:


Wouldn't that mean a track turning N.E.?
Yes. In the imagine I posted about 45 min ago (probably long gone down the blog) you can easily see the weakness draped across the se. Late season cold front.
2670. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:


Wouldn't that mean a track turning N.E.?


If it's at 101 mph, I would expect it will go toward the weakness. As far as NE turn...I'm not sure.
2671. Grothar
It is currently under low wind shear at the moment, but should encounter a little bit higher as it moves west. The shear is expected to lighten even further:

img src="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF" alt="" />

Wind Shear tendency:

<
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Yes. In the imagine I posted about 45 min ago (probably long gone down the blog) you can easily see the weakness draped across the se. Late season cold front.


I don't like anything in the gulf turning N.E.
I am confused the local mets keep saying wind shear will kill it but wat we are seeing is different what is their problem
Quoting IKE:
2657...that's the 12Z NAM.


Yep, corrected...
Quoting Dakster:
FLOODMAN!!!

Ok. I can see that we have a new invest called Panic 93L in the making...



Dakstah! Wazzup? Yeah, this one has all the earmarks of a bad one, but then again, gee, we're a little early in the run...the scary thing is, like the smart fellahs on here are saying, there's really not much to stop this one from gaining weight really fast
Quoting InTheCone:
12z Gfs @ 72hrs.....


not gfs its the nam
What model(s) performed the best in 2005?
93L model runs just posted

Quoting Patrap:
Widespread Panic 2010


Yeah, baby...the GOM tour! Pat, you have front row seats, huh?
"A Louisiana track would split the difference...that would be the most magnanimous tracks, making sure that everyone gets oil"


Being in Plaquemines Parish, I don't like that statement at all :(

And Pat, as always, thanks for posting the preparedness link.

Off I go back to lurking, and to the store for a few supplies :)

Kelley
Good morning.
2682. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


Take a look at the Euro...


Already did....pretty scary. It appears to be very jumpy on track, but the thing hasn't even formed yet, after all.
Quoting helove2trac:
I am confused the local mets keep saying wind shear will kill it but wat we are seeing is different what is their problem
Some of my family was saying this morning that they saw mets on TV saying anything in the caribbean would be shredded by shear as well... I don't know where they're getting that from. They must be running on old data


INV/93/L
MARK
13.1N/66.3W
Quoting btwntx08:

not gfs its the nam


Yep, caught it, although in this instance it may not be far off the mark, just have to wait and see.....
What model is most likely to be the best one to follow this year? any guesses? Thanks!
no need to panic, it's your retirement
2688. Drakoen
The highest shear 92L will experience over the next 120hrs is 12 knots. We have very favorable conditions for development and strengthening of an organizing system.
new blog!!!!!
Quoting Floodman:


A Louisiana track would split the difference...that would be the most magnanimous tracks, making sure that everyone gets oil


You are correct, that certainly wouldn't be a good scenario but I have a gut feeling we won't be able to avoid it this year. Without a lot of shear the GOM it's going to be ripe for storm formation this year with as warm as the waters already are. So much for trying to sell my house with a water view!
NEW BLOG
Pat how's it looking from the front row
2693. IKE
12Z NAM @ 84 hours...

Quoting smmcdavid:
Hey Floodman... good to see you.

I'm attempting to survive this season and heat all with baby #2 due in September! It should be interesting... How are you holding up these days?


I'm good...and certainnly better than you! I don't envy women at all for having babies, and carrying one through the last trimester in summer...yikes!
Quoting Drakoen:


Take a look at the Euro...

That would really suck. Hopefully it won't take that path.
new bloggggggggggggggggggg
Quoting CaneWarning:


I don't like anything in the gulf turning N.E.


Depending on the track it takes it could blow the oil back out sw into the gulf. Away from land and away from the loop current. Possible but not likley :(
2699. BFG308
Quoting CaneWarning:


It would likely also give oil to the east coast since it will get into the current and loop around.


Dr. Masters covered this scenario a while back, in May I think. If I recall correctly, it'll be pretty diffuse and will not be the same issue it is for the gulf coast. The current doesn't "hug" the coast tightly up the eastern seaboard.
2700. Drakoen
Surface pressures have yet to fall:

Buoy
Quoting smmcdavid:
Hey Floodman... good to see you.

I'm attempting to survive this season and heat all with baby #2 due in September! It should be interesting... How are you holding up these days?


Baby #2, congrats! Yeah you won't be liking the August heat this year that's for sure!
2702. cg2916
Back to the EPAC for a moment, here's Blas:

...BLAS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...

THERE HAS BEEN SOME MEAGER CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF BLAS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE
A LITTLE WEAKER. BY THE END OF THE DAY... BLAS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW DUE TO COLD SSTS AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT. A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF BLAS IS LIKELY UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS.

INITIAL 21/1500Z 18.0N 118.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 18.0N 120.1W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 22/1200Z 17.8N 122.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 23/0000Z 17.4N 125.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 23/1200Z 17.0N 127.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

And Celia, which is forecasted to become a Max Cat 2, or Min Cat 3:

...CELIA CONTINUES WESTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 102.4W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A VERY RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS HAS BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN
DETERMINING THE CENTER LOCATION OF CELIA. THE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE THAT HAS NOT BEEN EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL
IMAGERY. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT.

IT SEEMS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR HALTING THE INTENSIFICATION SEEN YESTERDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT DECREASING UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES DURING THE COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY SHOWS LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN
BEFORE. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS STRENGTHEN THE HURRICANE TO
AROUND 85 KT IN A FEW DAYS...WHILE THE HWRF AND LGEM SHOW A PEAK
ABOUT 10 KT LOWER. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS AT OR ABOVE THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HOURS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CELIA SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE
THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN.
nishi, hang in there...
2704. cg2916
NEW BLOG!!!
Quoting Patrap:
Widespread Panic 2010


I think with all that oil in the GOM everyone is pretty scared of what a hurricane is going to do to it. We've had way to many Cat 5 storms spin up just South of where the oil is in the past not to be worried about it happening this year. A much larger area of coast could be affected by hurricanes in the GOM this year, not just the area it makes landfall in, scary.
Good Morning all. Intrigued by the disturbed area exiting the Florida panhandle. I am noticing an area of vorticity associated with a flare up of thunderstorm activity. Shear is in the range of 10 - 20 knots. Remnants of old frontal boundaries hanging out over the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters are notorious for tropical development. I don't see where any of the models are picking this up. What am I missing?
Quoting Patrap:
Widespread Panic 2010


orange beach!
Quoting Floodman:


Yeah, baby...the GOM tour! Pat, you have front row seats, huh?


LOL!!

Widespread Panic : Greta


There's a pack of rabid dogs
Pawing at my front door
There's a pack of rabid dogs
Pawing at my front door


There's a swarm of yellowjackets
Pounding against my window pane
There's a swarm of yellowjackets
Pounding against my window pane


Well, how's it gonna be
How's it gonna be yeah
How's it gonna be
How's it gonna be yeah


All the pictures on the wall
Have fallen to the ground
The trees bowing to the grass
In a silent hurricane
When the landlord calls


Mother Nature's gone to war
She's in a fighting mood
Greta's got a gun
This ain't no flowerchild


How's it gonna be
How's it gonna be yeah
How's it gonna be
How's it gonna be yeah


All the pictures on the wall
Have fallen to the ground
The trees bowing to the grass
In a silent hurricane
When the landlord calls


Mother Nature's gone to war
She's in a fighting mood
Greta's got a gun
This ain't no flowerchild


How's it gonna be
How's it gonna be yeah
How's it gonna be
How's it gonna be yeah


There's a pack of rabid dogs
Pawing at my front door
There's a pack of rabid dogs
Pawing at my front door


There's a swarm of yellowjackets
Pounding against my window pane
There's a big ol' brama bull
Busting up my shotgun shack
Kinda surprised how 93L looks. Didnt think we'd have a trackable disturbance until Tuesday.

Last Night's 0z Euro...

Good evening to all of u am in sout east florida wondering if I have anything to look forward to
Hey anybody here
Good afternoon everyone I live in southeast florida anything I have to worry bout over the next two weeks