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Tropical update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:44 PM GMT on June 28, 2006

The low pressure system that almost became Tropical Storm Beryl yesterday churned up the East Coast last night, bringing heavy rain, high winds, and coastal flooding to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Winds gusts as high as 52 mph were recorded in Dover, Delaware early this morning, and tides of 1-3 feet above normal were seen all along the coast. The additional rain was unwelcome for Maryland, which has seen over a foot of rain in some areas over the past week. In suburban Washington D.C., 500 people were evacuated this morning due to the possible failure of the Lake Needwood dam on the north side of Rockville.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the week's rains have exceeded one foot in some areas of Maryland.

Tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands
A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands has become less organized since yesterday. Wind shear has increased from 10 knots yesterday to 25 knots today, and a surface circulation is no longer evident on visible satellite imagery. The wave will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Barbados this afternoon and most of the remainder of the Windward islands tonight, as it moves west-northwest at 20 mph. The wave does have the potential for some slow re-organization over the next two days, as the GFS computer model is indicating that an area of lower wind shear may develop over the wave. However, high wind shear is forecast to dominate most of the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic over the coming week, and it will be difficult for tropical storm formation to occur during this period. Only the Canadian model is forecasting that this tropical wave will develop into a tropical storm, and this model has been overdeveloping many tropical systems this June.


Figure 2.Latest satellite image of the tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands.


Figure 3. Model forecast tracks of the tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands.

Tonight's interview on Internet radio
Tonight starting at 9:30 pm EDT, I'll be the guest on Tropical Round Table, a live streaming audio show hosted by http://radio.nhcwx.com/. I'll be answering questions from the host, Mike Naso, for about 20 minutes. The show starts at 9 pm and runs for an hour.

Jeff Masters
Flooding Old Forge PA
Flooding Old Forge PA
The river in Old Forge PA from a better angle
Fury of the Falls
Fury of the Falls
Normally at this time of year, Chittenango Falls is just a placid ribbon of water over the rocks. This is after the recent rains here in the Northeast.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I love lamp.
Good morning Dr. M. Thanks for the update, and I will be sure to tune in tonight. Thanks for alerting us to it.
Dr. Masters..... look forward to hearing your discussion tonight....

How about giving a "shout out" to all your fans in the blog! :)

I too agree with Dr. Masters, at one time or another, the CMC has spun up almost every tropical wave that has come along this year into a storm! :) Don't have much faith that beyrl will come from the current wave in the lesser antilles..... but then again..... thats why they playthe game.... to be SURE of the outcome.... so guess we'll just have to keep our eyes peeled! :)
New Hurricane Names
Should the National Hurricane Center or World Meteorological Organization introduce the letters Q, U, X, W, X, Y, Z letters into the naming scheme or introduce surnames to storms?

Answer to Sunday's Question: Hurricane Katrina was more intense than Hurricane Camille. Intensity refers to central pressure. But Hurricane Camille winds were higher than Hurricane Katrina.

my blog
i just ate a red candle...

anchorman quotes from the ultimate weatherman - Brick Tamlin
good to know that the wave will not develop, I hope shear pattern continues so that nothing will hit my Puerto Rico.
whats up with all the hurricane hating on here? you don't want it to develop? isn't that what we all live for on here?....lol
Jug, it's not that we hate hurricanes. From June through December I am absolutely glued to this website, especially when a 'cane is headed our way. This site - especially Jeff Masters - helped us help our neighbors last year for Wilma. The local newscasters were forecasting a Cat 1 and Jeff said Cat 3. We called all our neighbors and warned them to shutter up for a big one and they did. We got a Cat 3, but we were well prepared for it because we listened to Jeff instead of the newscasters. Many homeowners in Port St.Lucie were caught off guard for Wilma, thinking they were going to experience just a Cat 1.
lol @ I love lamp
I have a love/hate relationship with hurricanes. I love watching them, and tracking them here on WU.

As soon as it effects my daily life, I hatem!

We Went through Jeanne, Frances, and Wilma. So like a lot of you, I've got the experience of going through them to judge.
Has anyone seen the 12.00 models, ships is forecasting 80kt winds in 100hours and a TS in 3 days from Inv93
16. tuxi
I note that some of the models show the disturbance that is now east of the Windwards headed towards NW Cuba and the Loop Current. What is the outlook in the event this indeed occurs?

I live near Houston, and it looks like this type of path may become a concern for TX and LA.
Is there any chance of something spinning up (subtropical) from that low at 28N, 66W? It looks like an upper-level low at the moment and doesn't have much convection, but the shear looks low at it's center and the water is fairly warm.

Also, what are the chances this might cause another rain event for the mid-atlantic region?
Gulfscotsman,

I had a long, detailed explanation of your questions, but it got deleted so this wont be quite as detailed.

But I assume you know shear is the difference in speed and direction of upper and lower levels winds. It is related to the upper level features that move through the atmosphere. If these features move quickly then shear from one area to another can change quickly in response to these features. If these upper level features move slowly or not all, then shear is going to be pretty stagnant and not change much. A developing trough or dying trough can also cause changes in wind shear and this can happen quite quickly aswell.

Also, strong tropical cyclones can 'fight' shear in a few ways.

Outflow is one. Outflow from in the upper levels from the cyclone flows outward from all sides when no shear is present. If this happens then shear increases, the outflow will battle the shear for a while as they try and push against each other. If the shear is weak and the outflow strong, then the outflow will keep the shear from reaching the CDO of the storm, but if the shear is stronger then the outflow, then the outflow in that area will be restricted and the shear will start to battle the CDO.

However, CDO clouds can also protect the center from shear if the cyclone is deep enough. A strong CDO can stand up against weak shear(under 10-15kts) Many times if a cyclone develops in low shear then moves into high shear the side of the storm facing shear will be 'flattened.' The CDO clouds on that side are being resisted by the shear, but since the cyclone is strong enough the shear doesn't really effect the inner core of the cyclone since it is stopped at the edge of the CDO.

Now, even moderate shear will get a cyclone after a while. The cyclone can only fight it off for so long before it makes it past the outflow and edges of the CDO and starts interfering with the core of the system. When this happens the cyclone battle is pretty much lost.
HurricaneMyles

Great post, thank you, that helps me understand things a little better.
hurricanemyles, thank you SO MUCH for your explanation, this is exactly what makes wu so special, folks like YOU taking the time to help us newbies understand,
I think the models will get an update soon with a cyclone in the area of Belize. The pressures are still quite high but that could change quickly with surface development.
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 281514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE
RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE MERGING
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE...BUT THIS SYSTEM STILL POSES A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TOMORROW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HAZARDS
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES TODAY...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWERS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO THOSE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PROHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB




It didnt even make the NWS update today.
Glad you guys appreciate the information. I do have to warn you though, I'm not a Met or even have an Met classes(I'm acutally in school to be a civil engineer) so that might not be 100%correct by weather theory, but it what I've witnessed during my time hurricane watching.


As you know this is a great place to learn about cyclones, but another great site with a bunch of great Mets is FLHurricane.com If you didn't know about this site check it out. A bunch of new Mets actually signed up and have been giving great explanations of the storms so far this season. This is where I learn most of the technical stuff about hurricanes and weather.
Newt. Models take this feature NW and then North not affecting the East Coast. Trough moving off the East Coast US will move this feature out to sea.
The wave entering the Windward Islands looks better developed today then yesterday...I agree there is shear ahead but also warm waters and remember with Alberto sometimes the warm water can somewhat compensate the shear.
In other words, sport, you never know what could happen. Nature has a mind of its own.
On shear - shear maps are estimates, since there's no good way of being certain about upper-level winds in the middle of the Atlantic. They can make good guesses, but sometimes they are wrong, so take them with a grain of salt.
Best thing to do is take the shear maps, and then compare them to the satellite representation. You can tell alot just by looking at the visible satellite during the day. You can really see the shear working on our system today. Blowing those cloud tops quickly off to East and NE.
Thanks for the update! A pretty quiet June is a nice gift for the start of summer.

...sets tropical alarm clock for second week in July.

"A ripping and shredding and tearing sound should follow." LOL@gulfscotsman...
Can anyone give a short crash course on what the invests are?
I have very much appreciated a toned down June as well.
Good Afternoon everyone........

Well, I am very surprised that Beryl was not named yesterday morning....Oh well maybe at the end of the year they might reconsider......who knows......

Has anyone noticed that they the difference in shear direction over the southern leeward islands....thunderstorms at the bottom of the islands is heading SW and just a little north of that area is streaming NE......just very interesting
HurricaneMyles thanks for the great information. BTW did I miss the low that is now in NJ becoming a TD before landfall in NC? Dr Masters references it as "the system that almost became Tropical Storm Beryl yesterday" in his blog?
SC it hasnt made it to A list but the north western Yucatan should be interesting later this afternoon.
Dont really understand the increased shear discussion regarding 93L. If I am reading shear fcst correctly and assume that system will maintain 15- 20 kts fwd speed and current direction it seems to me that it will remain in an area of favourable shear.Could the more learned please comment. Thanks in advance--Caymanite.
Check out how much the Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean water has warmed in the two weeks since Alberto. The maps show total heat content(temp x depth).

June 13

June 27

Much of the water in this region and the Bahamas is now warmer than last year.
Hawkeyewx, I noticed that the other day, gawd knows what it will be like come Sep 1st.... The GOM is primed for one or 2 big hurricanes........
45. Alec
Yes Hawk......our heat wave in the south for the last few weeks and virtually cloud free regions in the Gulf has REALLY spiked these water temps with maximum heating to coincide with some of the longest days of the yr......have to get running again...have a good afternoon folks:)
Nothing on the models is right from what Ive seen too.

Theres a lot of shear on the lower Yucatan but the system there seems to be doing ok. Its not very spectacular now, but it all I can see. I dont know if 93L and 94 are going to remain intact in the lower Caribbean. The high building in NW Florida could start pushing more to the SE also I believe.
A 1407Z 95GHz image of 93 L doesn' show much convection, but the upper level high pressure anticyclone still seems to be tracking along with the lower level low pressure. If it continues to the NW it could get to lower shear and warmer water...then....
Then take it to a company and make some money off the tunnels. We just want to hear about it.
We just dont want to hear about it.

Besides, I've seen a lot more evidence to make them not work then what will make them will. If you really want to try and prove do it here, do it outside Dr. Master's blog.
Tunneling - Go to Cyclonebuster's blog if you want to talk about tunnels; I will find it for you.
Tunneling,

Why dont we want to hear about it? Because we're sick of tunnel talk - at least I am. Cyclonebuster has tried and tried to prove his theory with the same old evidence that doesn't prove anything. If you have new, more impressive evidence to prove his theory then make a blog about it. But Dr. Masters has specifically said he wants no tunnel talk, and I agree.
Here is his blog on tunnels; notice that the last comment on it was on May 1st (not counting his "a comet is going to hit the earth and kill us all blogs").
man vs. nature..... tunnel or no..... no match at all...."you can't fool mother nature!"

Just the person I wanted to see M STL is that the remains of 92L around 65w 27n coming into the picture?
Seems most of the rain has kept to the west of NYC. Only picked up 0.64" from this tropical system, although winds have been pretty decent (39 mph gust this morning).

Going back to a previous post, why does the SHIPS seem to overestimate wind projections?
I would say that it is the remains of 92L, although I stopped following it after it was no longer an invest; there appears to be a circulation around 31N, 64W on this image.
Do you guys really think TUNNELING is anyone other than cyclonebuster?
That is a good one thanx.
hi yall. im new here and find this blog very cool!
Why would cyclonebuster make a new name if he were to continue talking about the same stuff?
Tampa,

I'm not convinced either way, but it doesn't really matter - Keep the tunnels out of Dr. Masters' blog.
ive been reading for a couple of weeks though.
TUNNELING wrote:

What do you want to hear?

"Everyone, I'm sorry for coming in under a new ID and pretending that I'm not cyclonebuster. I won't do it again. I'm leaving now."
TUNNELING cyclonebuster are you thinking what i am thinking? i think TUNNELING is cyclonebuster where he this did a new id what you think : TampaCat5 ?
maybe he is ST in disguise!lol
i dont think man will ever be able to "bust" a cyclone.
Link
check this out
New Hurricane Names
Should the National Hurricane Center or World Meteorological Organization introduce the letters Q, U, X, Y, Z letters into the naming scheme or introduce surnames to storms?

Answer to Sunday's Question: Hurricane Katrina was more intense than Hurricane Camille. Intensity refers to central pressure. But Hurricane Camille winds were higher than Hurricane Katrina.

my blog
Part of the system over the Yucatan came from out of the shear looking good. Theres too much high pressure around there though. 88w 17n.
thanks SJ. Tornado
Posted By: TUNNELING at 6:44 PM GMT on June 28, 2006.
"tornadodude at 6:39 PM GMT on June 28, 2006.
i dont think man will ever be able to "bust" a cyclone"

Correct, but Cyclonebuster will!!


That must mean that Cyclonebuster is not man at all...if so then what is he?

(have fun with this one guys!)
Then make a blog showing all the evidence that his tunnels work. Leave it outta here though.
That 1st picture Dr Masters posted looks like a good canoe run, the second I'd have to pass.

The remains of 92L look like it's got dry air issues to be followed by frontal issues & then there is more dry air if it makes it past the front. Which looks unlikely.

Welcome Tornadodude...the link had some interesting pics, I'd say most interesting was the corn. Unlike straight winds there was no debri around at all.
Thanks for the link, HurricaneMyles. FLHurricane.com along with the links provided at weathercore.com are GREAT tools for any beginner wanting to learn more about tropical cycles.
Tunnelling,

If you think that's all the evidence you need to prove the tunnels work then you have the same intelligence as cyclonebuster. So please, talk about the tunnels somewhere else.
Okay okay, time to finally put to rest this idea of these stupid ass tunnels that would cost trillions of dollars and nobody would want to fund and would screw up the environment and would accomplish NOTHING. Have fun with Cyclonebuster all you want with it in his own blog. But we've got our cans of whoop-ass waiting to be opened if this silly tunnel-talk continues...
Harumph. lol
well, the bahama blob didnt get named..... but i dont think the people from nc up to new england will forget this storm anytime soon.....

"12:58 p.m. Luzerne County officials have issued a mandatory evacuation notice for areas of the county that were affected by the 1972 Agnes Flood.
The Susquehanna River is expected to crest between 36 and 38 feet early Thursday, a few feet below the 41-foot levees protecting the Wyoming Valley.
County officials stressed that they are confident the new levee system will hold back the river and that the evacuation is a precaution. Residents affected by Agnes, including Exeter, Forty Fort, Hanover Township, Kingston, Plymouth, Swoyersville and parts of Wilkes-Barre, should evacuate their homes by 8 p.m. today."

heard somewhere that as many as 200,000 people may be evacuated!!!

can we retire BB?
Tunneling, why don't you bother Greenpeace or some other enviromentalist place instead of here? Link to 1,000+ places where cyclonebuster has posted.
Hello tornado. These guys are very informative and helpful. Just don't mention tunnels and don't pet Randrewl- he bites.
Hey.... if you can make a can of "tunnel whoopass", just cut to the chase, and make a can of "hurricane whoopass"....

why waste time on tunnels! :D
OMG!!!!! M STL - youre right!!!!! YIPES!!!

I think the remains of 92L will head north for the mess in New England.
Different area-

3 Die in Floods; Two Teenagers Missing
Dam Threatens to Fail, Forcing More Than 2,000 From Their Homes in Montgomery County

The three dead were the first local fatalities reported during six days of record-setting storms that have battered the Washington region, washing out scores of roads, flooding hundreds of homes and forcing the overnight evacuation of more than 2,200 people from neighborhoods around Lake Needwood in central Montgomery County.

County officials said the dam holding back the waters around the lake was leaking and could fail. Early this afternoon, Gordon Aoyagi, Montgomery County's Homeland Security Dept. director, said officials were still concerned about "ongoing seepage" at the dam. He said he didn't know when evacuees will be allowed to return home.



Ok, now I am convinced that buster and this guy are the same person. We dont have to disprove it works with math, you must show it works with the math. But still, do it in a different blog.
The current situation in New England is basically a repeat of what happened last year in October. Link
Yeah MichealSTL - last Oct was real bad for New England. What's ironic is that same persistant low that was off the coast of New England for a while was creating the trough that was the birth place for Wilma last year. She formed under the disturbed weather the trough created and then strenghtened once it moved away.
hi again. i still think that tunneling is ST.
lol. notreally
Hello tornado. These guys are very informative and helpful. Just don't mention tunnels and don't pet Randrewl- he bites

thanks flood.
Tunneling maybe you should look here
Link
look at the storm report. looks like beryl to me.
bye y'all
so far we have 10 deaths "related" to BB........

This surely goes on the list of worst tropical "disturbances"........
Hi - new - well not new - been reading the blogs forever and have found most of them pretty interesting. The only thing that is making me leave this site (and too bad cause it's rather informative) is the fact that everyone is being soooooo nasty to one another. It's rather dismaying cause I didn't think the weather was much to be nasty to one another about.
hey guys just updated my blog....stop by and leave me a comment.thanks
A brief description of tunneling:

Tunneling occurs when a connection is established to a local network from a remote link across the Internet, creating a Virtual Private Network (VPN). Frames are encapsulated inside of IP packets and sent across the Internet using either Point-to-Point Tunneling Protocol (PPTP) or Layer 2 Tunneling Protocol (L2TP). This is very handy when connecting to your company's LAN when you're on the road, allowing you to work remotely.

So see, tunneling can be a very good thing. :-)
Oh yeah, IPSec (Internet Protocol with Security) can also perform tunneling. =]
Hi, everyone. Just joining the blog. I have always been facinated with tropical storms, and it appears that MOST of you here are too. I look forward to engagin and learning from you all.
Sounds good! Just watch out for guys like STORMTOP and his know-it-all attitude and Cyclonebuster/TUNNELING and his stupid tunnels and you should be good to go! =]
You guys running down the CMC are making a mistake. These computer models track systems and forecast according to criteria only, and make no assumptions. The computer assumes nothing, and it is not responsible if a system does not reach some magic qualifying number set by humans to recognize whether it's a storm or not. Did a storm rip up the east coast in the last few days? Well, something
caused 200,000 Pennsylvanians to run for higher ground, and countless other horrors.
These computer models are great. Look at the present situation compared to where we were even twenty years ago with regard to forecast track.
"A stalled frontal boundry had pumped most of the rains in before the arrival of this system. In fact were the largest portions of the rainfall."...

the egghead hydrology phrase for this is 'antecedent moisture conditions'...you usually only get widespread, catastrophic flooding if there has already been a lot of rain lately and the soil is wet.
Flooding is one of the biggest, if not the biggest, weather-related killer. The fact that people die in floods does not make a storm into a tropical cyclone. Unfortunately, it happens all the time...sometimes cause by a tropical cyclone, sometimes not.
132. MZT
We might see the disturbance mentioned in the final reports by the NHC, if only to clarify further how close it came, and the reasons it was not named.

It's kind of like arguing whether Pluto really is a planet. Create a definition, and you find situations that come just inside or outside it.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 282111
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY HAS MERGED WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IS MOVING OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES... AND CONTINUING EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY... AND WIND GUSTS TO 36 MPH
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON ST. LUCIA. UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER...
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS... CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT... AND OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON
THURSDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
PRODUCING A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

A large circulation from the Pacific (I watched it earlier today) is crossing the mountainous regions of Guatemala moving towards the Yucatan, along the front north of 90w 13n- use the zoom on the IR. Its a daily thing I know but it seems to really light up as it approaches.
then we shall call it tropical wave pluto...
a few frisky storms out in kansas today...hold tight toto

"at 350 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near Rossville... or about 16 miles west of Topeka... moving east at 10
mph."

man that thing is moving slow. could do some damage w/the hail.
looking at the wave via the rainbow feature that NOAA offers, you can see an eye trying to form. However there is shear evident to the northeast of the low pressure. We shall see how the system develops once free of the shear. As for whats in the area around Central America, as I stated before if that system can get itself out of the trend of forming and then going into Central America then it has a slight chance of forming into something. However we shall see, I just hope that nothing forms before the fourth.
Little something to look at...look at the 12Z GFS SLP Loop at 174 hrs [actually, because of the focus of this view..probably something sooner]

Here is the Link
Happy happy joy joy, Rwd..I hope it makes it into the KC metro.
maybe something will blow up a little closer to us...this one doesn't seem to be going much of anywhere.
Rain showers for 2 days in a row! *flags every tunneling post as spam*
Did 93 and 94L come together?
flags em' all...so annoying...its so obvious that its him with another id... anyways, hows everyong doing this fine evening. here in central va watching the james slowly rise... may have to close the flood walls in downtown shokoe slip tonight. we dont need a repeat of gaston.
As far as I know, 94L is another name for 93L; I never saw 94L on the NRL site, which calls it 93L. Link
93L it is now. Wonder if that is what is seen on the MSLP 174hrs out.

Wonder if this is what is seen as posted earlier?


Posted By: Cregnebaa at 8:39 AM CST on June 28, 2006.
Has anyone seen the 12.00 models, ships is forecasting 80kt winds in 100hours and a TS in 3 days from Inv93
I think NOAA has switched now to calling it 93L, it's on floater 2, Link.
Hey everyone, I haven't updated my blog.
Hello all. I've been reading Dr. Masters' blog for about a year now, and also the comments section whenever I can stomach the frequent unprofessional behavior of some of the commenters.

I don't expect to post again anytime soon, but seeing all this tunnel business **yet again** has prompted me to at least inform you folks that the nearly daily pursuit of personal axes to grind and general trivial bickering here is driving away the participation of at least one and possibly a great many people who would otherwise be happy to participate in discussions of tropical cyclones and learn from each other.

Good day.
Hi guys, quiet day in the tropics :) I had enough excitement for a week.

Hurricane Warning
151. IKE
caneman said..."Hey everyone, I haven't updated my blog."....

That's funny....if you're a regular reader of this blog...it does get old...come visit my extra special website that....just goes on and on and on...about every 1-2 hours.

It's nice of Dr. Masters to allow it...I guess.
so fill me in, anything interesting besides jelawat?
153. IKE
Coriolist...they'll always be folks on here and almost every blog that contaminate it. If you think it's bad here, try reading Major League baseball teams fan forums. This is nothing.
this happens once in awhile in the blogs, people bash each other and then people bash the bashers for bashing. when stuff happens in the tropics it stops though.
155. IKE
Agree....as soon as the tropics get busy the mood changes in here. It is a good place to learn.

Only problem...then you have everyone giving their predictions...like anyone could keep up with 200 different people and their chances on blobby forming into a hurricane in 72 hours.
The only ones I see on the SSD page are 91L and 93L, nothing else about any 94L or such. However if another system were to develop, you are probably going to be looking around the Central America area as the convection is still active in that location. Also there is a swirl in the atmosphere east of the bahamas viewable via the water vapor, other than that I do not see anything else with viable options to form.
I'm traveling to Cancun and the central Caribbean mid-July. Anyone know the tropical outlook for that time?

I'm a bit concerned that it's so quiet right now.
rose, no idea. However as quiet as it is now it should start jumping around weather wise about that time of year. I would be watching around the Africa region
i just added JELAWAT info in my page....stop by leave my comments..thanks adrian
Nobody can really tell you what will happen next month or, for that matter, a few days out; forecasts are not that reliable. I would say that if the current conditions continue, then the risk of a storm in the Caribbean or Cancun is low, but I can't guarantee than nothing will happen, such as a sudden decrease in shear or a rouge pop-up storm that defies shear (like Alberto).
tildarose:

July is usually quieter than June, and June ain't busy. I'd go to the Carribean in July myself. It can't be worse than Texas!
bappit:

It's funny you say that, because my family is in SE Texas. I've just moved back from New Orleans, and in August I'm moving to Florida! It would appear, in fact, that I'm at risk no matter where I am.
Actually I was thinking about the heat. I'm not worried about hurlycanes.
Ahh, the heat. Yes--it's horrendous all over: Houston, New Orleans, Cancun, Cuba, and Florida. Summers in Cuba are probably the worst, though.
Florida heat: Dry at times with rain that does not cool down the temps. Other than that it usually feels like a sauna outside about 3 in the afternoon.
It can be hotter in the middle of the U.S during the summer, as there are no bodies of water nearby to keep temperatures low; 120+ heat indices with highs in the 100s are not unusual during the summer here.
That's why the Carib doesn't sound too bad to me. The days would be shorter, though.
Michael STL:

Very true. But I can handle 100+ heat, if it's dry. It's the humidity that's a killer.
Only chance 93L has is if it stays north of the carribean, only then a slim chance.
OK, a slow day in the tropics. please indulge me...
My pick for my favorite posts from yesterdays blog:
First Place (by far):
Posted By: StormJunkie at 12:33 AM GMT on June 28, 2006.
[...]

"Let me also address this part of "wish casting" really quickly. Some say people come on here and they "want to get hit" by a hurricane. First and most important is the fact that none of us control the weather, except for maybe ST in his head. No one can "wish" a storm upon them. That being said, if a tropical system is going to make landfall I want to see it. I do not want to see it because I want people to die or possesions to be destroyed. I want to see it because the power of mother nature is truly amazing to me. I went through Hugo, so please don't tell me I just don't understand, I do; and if it happens again, I want to see it. I want to be able to help the people around me in the aftermath. The real point here is that wanting or not wanting does not change what will be. Therefore if I can find some small way to enjoy some aspect of these storms then I will. I would recomend the same for everyone. If it is the opportunity to go visit relatives, then enjoy that part. If it is a chance at having a few days off, then enjoy that part, if it is discussing it with friends, then enjoy that part. The parts that are not enjoyable are, for the most part, things you can not change. Be preparred, Be safe, and with the stress of this time of year, find some things to enjoy about it.

I hope I have expressed my point of view the way it was intended. I want no harm or foul to come to any person and I wish good weather for all, but a unfortunatly I do not control the weather. I can only admire it."


Stormjunkie's post inspired in me a flash of clarity and self honesty. I say that I hate hurricanes, but his post exposed an internal conflict in my thinking. After reading his incredibly insightful post, I have to admit to myself, as these storms approach me and pass over, there is a large burst of adrenaline that course through my veins, and a sense of awe. But it is a paradox, and the awe is mixed with dread, since after the storm passes I know we will we see the deaths and injuries, the destruction of people's property, the irreplaceable loss of heirlooms and personal belongings, the destruction of the environment, and the death of wildlife. StormJunkie's post cut right to the heart of the matter, it is this paradoxical combination of awe and the sense of horror and impending doom that draws us to this site like moths to a flame. But all of our hopes and wishes one way or the other have absolutely no effect on the outcome; it happens whether we want it to or not.

Second favoritet:
Posted By: RedMosquito at 12:56 AM GMT on June 28, 2006.
[...]
"We are all free to make predictions, and be incorrect about those predictions. To point out those incorrect thoughts is ignorant and only makes you look stupid. Why can't the group have a civilized discussion about the weather without pointing out when someone is wrong?!? And rubbing it in? WHO CARES? When you say "Just get it right at the end." it makes you sound really silly, we are not professionals, and neither are you. If you think you must be better than everyone else and point out when they are wrong about a storm, you have your own issues, you need to find whats wrong with you, because thats what you are trying to make up for by harassing others."

I think that making our amateur forecasts and speculations here are an integral part of the learning process, as long as we back them up by our reasoning. If we quit keeping "score", as if this was a personal contest, and substitute reasonable discussion, then we can all learn without hard feelings. . For example, I had a discussion with turtlehurricane on the evolution of that B-Blop that I was so fascinated with, and in the end I learned something from her I think this is a good rule as long as posts remain on topic according to Dr. Masters lead in his current blog. After all, if you dont want to read certain peoples posts, then just skip their posts, or better yet, reply with some reasoned discussion, without making personal attacks. I have sometimes been guilty of this, but I will continue to strive to keep a level head when I post here, and maintain my respect for the members of this community.

Yesterday GulfScotsman said "...So it is just 'fun' to look at the clouds and go wow! but they also have to be supported by the observations in the air and on the ground. Thats what we do here. But BY THE BOOK..."

Now I admire GulfScotsman greatly, and I think he is a valuable member here and a steady voice of reason. But I must respectfully disagree with his opinion above. For tropical systems that may be developing out at sea, we really have nothing but satellite data on which to base our judgments. So gaining an intuitive understanding of how weather systems interact with each other and the ocean by watching the clouds is part of what I want to learn here. I think any real tropical forecaster would agree that tropical storm genesis is very difficult to forecast in many situations. Weather phenomena is chaotic, there is really "no book", although there are certainly governing principles of physics, good models, commonly accepted definitions, and maybe some good rules of thumb (GulfScotsman made a very good list of some reasonable rules of thumb in his past posts). But nothing is "set in stone". Besides, I see nothing wrong with having a little fun on this site, as long as our "fun" is not the cruel kind of fun that involves attacking others to boost our own egos.

OK, I am done pontificating for today. Sorry for the long post. Any reasoned discussion is welcome.
exactly.......
Added to Guygee's post. A group of ametures, WORKING TOGETHER, can come up with a pretty darn good forcast. Objective opinions make the group learn. There is a vast difference in the experience here from last year, this year people are working against eachother. I do not include everyone, there are always exeptions. It does however, kill the focus and discourages people from wanting to learn from this site, which Dr. Master's designed it to do. Point being, ignore the antaginist and stay focused is all.
Hello all, I have been watching this site for several years especially during hurricane season. I work offshore in the gulf of mexico oil patch. I am am like many of you, I am in awe of what nature can do to what man builds.
Yea, I agree fullheartedly Progressive. Lets start working together and drop the competitive garbage that keeps up from achieving what we want to do here. Whether it be educating those who are less knowledgable on the subject, or forcasting the next storm, it can all be done much better if we work together.

I think it would be fun if the various weather websites had a competition to see who can forcast a better storm. It would sure bring the Wunderground together so we could forcast with more accuracy and have more fun.
I like very much what Progressive said above, Trouper. I like our suggestion too, on taking a vote on storm tracks and intensities. It would be very cool if we could somehow set up a polling system on storm tracks and intensities, and take a vote, to test the collective wisdom of our group against reality. Maybe we can talk to the adminstrators of this site; it seems a lot of other blogs have software that allows users to set up their own polls and let people vote on multiple choices in a poll.
176. MahFL
Remember Dr Masters is on the radio at 9 pm.
It's 9:00PM now...I'm off to listen.
I recently returned from West Africa (Ghana).
I was expecting serious heat but, actually it was just like home. The only difference was that at home you can get out of it! By the way,
compared to my in-laws house, this blog is a love fest!

hello all
my computer crashed and burned last week and i have not been able to track any weather........anything of intrest out there
I'm clicking on the link in Dr. Master's blog, but it comes up URL not found?? Is any one else having any luck?
It goes back to Science. If you think it to be that way, tell me why, what are your conclusions?
i like to add on to some in to that if i may


if some one ask you a ? or they are try to ask you a ? do not went that post pass up with out that ? being ask like you a ways do with me i find that not vary nic to that
tacotoe,burritobuns,huricanechaser , pleeeze

can any one tell oh they are i keep ban them but they keep comeing back with new ids how mean ids do thy have
Taz - I don;t have my own blog, so I don't think I can help. Can you ban them by IP address? (Anyone?)
well, almost time for Dr. Masters..... god, i know i am a weather geek now for sure, listening to streaming tropical discusiion! LOL

but isn't it so much fun trying to predict the unpredictable? :)
Finally figured out I had to click on the little foobar2000 icon, coming in loud and clear now...
hey guys my blog is now up...stop by and check it out!by the jeff masters will be live on ipr.com
thelmores - lol. Streaming every Tuesday night at 9:00PM: Tropical Round Table. Can't miss it from now on...

One guy (Not Dr. Masters, but Zack Fradella ) said "..July, then Boom! Pattern shift." Dr. Master's has not called in yet...
H23- great blog site.
Dr. Masters just coming on...
Tazman -- They can use proxies to disguise their ip address. Then create a new yahoo mail box and invent a new id.
just mentioned us bloggers!

yea!!!
He's on.
Dr. Masters: "Hi to my loyal blog readers":)
If they are real jerks, they can basically create as many ids as they want. Don't give the jerks more attention than they deserve.

Personal attacks can be really annoying, though.
Yea - Bahama Blob! Yea!
"2006 NOT A REPEAT OF 2005!" - Dr. Jeff Masters

too much shear, trough of low pressure on the east coast, and a 1 degree C lower SST..... The good dr says, in fact, i believe the good Dr. may believe will have a more inactive season, perhaps, than normal, although he didn't really say it.......

Dr. Masters said too much wind shear in the pattern right now, does not expect a major hurricane until August.
10mb higher bermuda high this year vs. last year..... (Dr Masters)
mentioned trade winds are stronger, more evaporation, cooler SST's
"at least one major hurricane should hit the united states this year" - Dr. Masters
"1 or 2 storms at most in july" - Dr. Masters
Check out the Great square storm at 100 w 10 -15 n - thats new and different.
where do i hit on the link
206. code1
Just above the 2 pictures David. Tropical Round Table.
"some times you are going to get lucky, and some times you will not.... if you are a storm" - Dr. Masters

LOL ain't that the truth! :)

for the radio show - here - then click a player on the left to listen now
Sorry wrong link Here for radio
ok what are good dr m saying now
I see this season similiar to 2004
"10-20% chance for 93l (or 94l whatever) to develop" - Dr. Masters
except a little more active ...... the 17 strom that colorado predicted seems reasonible
Yea new toys coming :)

Thanks Dr M. Look forward to the recon info and the overlay maps

SJ
215. code1
Nice Dr. M!!
Dr. Masters..... I want to be the first to critique your interview.....

You were outstanding! Knocked it outta the park Dr. Masters! :)
good Show Dr.master's. thank You.
yep cant wait for the OVERLAY MAPS...visit my blog.
HurricaneRoman - I hope not! Let that persistant mean trough pull'em up north along 75 W, I'll enjoy the big swells.
Yes, informative show, congatulations Dr. Masters!
guygee you live in florida??? well i do......
222. mobal
Great interview Doc. Masters
Ok ya'll I am off to bed. The round table touched on the bloggers again even after Dr M left :)

Been working on a new portion of StormJunkie.com and hope to have it up in the next day or so. I think you all will like it.

Night all
SJ
enjoyed putting a voice with the type:))thanks Dr Masters for the link to tonights show. Good Job!
HurricaneRoman - Yes, east central FL, on the barrier island south of Cape Canveral.
Also mentioned is the ITCZ that is much farther north. This brings waves into territory that may support the early organization but, as they progress further east, are subject to normal conditions for this time of year which are quite hostile.
The space coast guy thats cool. I love the old NASA stuff. Look at Yucatan Blob it aint all that but its doping better than invest 93l&94l! Something significant just went through the shear area you can see the flair out to the ENE near 89w 16n. That will be the center if it develops probably. Its still got a lot of land to cross.
I was up almost all last night, working, just made a deadline for writing a proposal at noon today. The tide always pulls back after a surge like that, it was a big coming down.

I was watching the network news tonight. The Governor of Pennsylvania said there were 1,000 rooftop helicopter rescues today in the northern part of the state. A 100 year flood plain has flooded for the 3rd time in the last four years. Everyone keeps mentioning Katrina.

I have a cat, it is a big, red long-haired male. More like a dog, really, he would wait for me on the porch everyday. Very friendly. I hadn't seen him in a couple of days, when he came in last night limping. It was raining outside. I noticed his tail was dragging and wet. His tail was paralyzed and broken. I took him to the vet, they give him 50/50. His bladder isn't working. I guess a car hit him. I don't even want to consider any other possibilities

Hope for some better news tomorrow.
Good night, all.
Er Doing not Doping
Yeah JFLORIDA, Space coast, but I work in Orlando, at UCF. So I get a little of both worlds in Central FL.

I am tired, so I'll catch you later!
231. MZT
Dennis and Emily last year might have changed some people's expectations now ... but remember, they were unprecedentedly early major storms in comparison with previous years.

This year could be like 2003 ... relativey minor storms, then WHAM up comes Isabel and Juan at the end!

For the US, "It's not over, until after October"





sorry for your cat guygee.

great job DR.M!
Good luck with your cat. Guygee.
Link

the weather has been quite active lately.
Be it the ITCZ farther north, brings waves moreso into hostile territory this time of year. Looks like this will be yet another year of inpredictable weather. Put on your thinking caps ladies and gentlemen.
Link
check it out
how do i title links?
thanks in advance.
bye
Sorry for the double post, page flipped back to order posted on me.
Always hard when a member of the family is hurt Guygee, be it a cat, still a member. Hopefully Fluffy does well and is back to normal soon.
What is the A98E model? Is it very reliable? I do not like the way that it shows a path into the mid gulf.
Personally, 2005 has you all bugged out, and they said it would not happen again for a while, believe it. First storm of 2004 didn't happen until the end of july.
Pasc, no models are reliable at this point. Until a center has formed the models are guessing just as we are.
That is a good thing at this point.
there is very low probability that that wave will ever develop.
yes it is PASC
it should be, that this wave will ever develop.
how do i title a link?
A98E - Is the National Hurricane Center Atlantic 1998 Early Model. It's a statistical track model which looks at storms in the past which formed in the same place, and combines this forecast with upper-level forecast model data from the GFS other specific meteorological equations are applied as well. Don's ask me which ones, lol. seems like it has done okay so far. Might of been a little too right on Alberto early on. Called the central Fl landfall on 91L. Did have it a little left after that, over land, on the journey north, for a day or 2.

tornadodude~ What help? Your last link worked:)
i dont know how add a name to it.
sorry. i dont know how to add a name to it. lol
252. WSI
"Did have it a little left after that, over land, on the journey north, for a day or 2."

If memory serves, I think all the models had it tracking north over land. The actual track was caught late in the game by the models.
Tornadodude~ oh title... write out your words in the comment box. Right click (holding it down) as you drag the curser over a word or words. Once desired words are highlighted in blue, release on the right click button on your mouse then click on link (in the blue rectangle above the box your writing the comment in). Paste web address in window that opens & click okay.
Link
not good!
Because there was never a center and it kept moving around with this storm. Never once did they tag a center, it was always estimated.
right click & highlight not good, then click on the link button.
not good
like this? thanks Skye!
Guys i just updated my blog on my thoughts on 93L.Stop by and leave me a comment!thanks adrian
i gotta go guys, "see" ya later!lol
Thanks again Skye!:)
260. WSI
"Because there was never a center "

Yeah. Models don't do as well when there is no defined center.
*applause*

PP, I was quite suprised how well the models did for it never forming. That one day they did inish all over central Fl. But for the most part they agreed alot & had the (& I use this somewhat broadly) general direction. Lets say there wasn't alot of squashed spiders & storm heading in oppisite direction then model cast.
I also ask when the last time we ever had the chance to research a possible storm in the area it formed in this time period?
agreed skye, eventually. But they did not call the landfall and regeneration. I think the weather system in place would have called anything in the area.
Hello all. Found an interesting link that sheds light on the flooding in the mid-Atlantic...

Link
For timeframe, I chose last 14 days and choose percent of normal. The actual rainfall for last 14 days pretty amazing too.
Don't forget skye, both the ULL and the Surface low were inland when the new suspect area developed.
New models after that performed great, you could have parked a 747 there and it would go the way of the models.
By the way, I am in the middle of the red bull's eye in the middle of the country when you choose the same settings in floodzonenc's link.
Your in NY Michael?
I would have said wild boar but red bull sounds better.
No, I mean the red area in the middle of the country when you select last 14 days and percent of normal (St. Louis is in the middle of the Missouri/Illinois border).
PP, by no means did they do steller, just for an unformed disterbance, we didn't see the typical (for that situation) spagetti model that looked like a squashed spider.

Here's one to watch, while I'm off to bed. 93L was looking like a better blob earlier. Now it has hit some shear that's shoved it's convection nnw. It looks like the remaines of 92L are beginning to tap into that convection & steal some. 93L seems to have taken a jog more northerly. Any thoughts? central atlantic rainbow loop.
ohh lol but seriously if you look at the radar on the east coast, it looks like an animal running up the coast, click the same link lol.
Hey all, I'm kinda new to this blog here, but I've been visiting WU for a while. Anyways, I was wondering if anyone could explain how WU forms the computer model images? Are they from a software program or manually inputted/plotted or? Is there a site you all frequent that has forecasted tracks/intensitity for invests/storms?
Upper levels are starting to interact with the trough skye, have to see what it does with it tomorrow. Mid and low levels are non-existant so nothing to deal with there. Has to get out of the Carrib if it wants a little hope.
Skye, looking at the the surrounding conditions on 93 or 94L for that matter, I would say that the main feature will pass north of the antillies, as long as it can survive the shear it is under now, game on.
If it does get up there we will be looking at another ULL situation we had this past week in the Bahamas, nothing new.
Hi all (that's IAH is home). I've been considering a move to Houston (North End, near IAH) due to crazy housing prices out here in California. I've been watching these blogs for a long time. My family (mom and aunts uncles, cousins, etc) were part of the messy evacuation from Hurricane Rita in and around Beaumont, TX. My mom was in a nursing home at the time and was bussed halfway to Dallas. (Yes, the news of the bus fire was a scary day for me, but she was on a different bus.)

Anyone in Texas know if there are laws in place that protect you from shoddy home construction or anything? There's a company based in Southern California building homes out there that I'm looking at. I'm sure hoping they're smart enough to put ceramic tiles or whatever sturdy stuff they use out that way where hail can really ruin your day and not that wood and shingle stuff that works so well here.

Anyway, keep up all of the storm discussion, I appreciate it and I learn a lot from the links you all post.

My question right now is, what about the heavy thunderstorms persisting overnight in the South Gulf of Mexico that just came off of the Yucatan?

It seemed to merge with a trough coming off of Mexico proper and now there's a healthy band of showers there quite visible on Gulf IR images. They don't seem to be going anywhere too quickly and sitting over that water can't be a good thing, can it?

It looks to me like shear is lower in the south end of the gulf, but I haven't got a good link to latest shear forecast. Anyone got one? Hopefully it gets blown apart soon.

Obviously, the SSTs in the area are PLENTY hot enough for this guy. I'll hope you'll all (and Dr. Masters) dismiss it as a non-issue.

Personally, I'm happy to still be reading this blog from California. We had thunderstorms today come within 10 miles... some of them even lasted a few hours! That's a big weather day here. Normally they stay out in the desert. They died and dissipated quickly though as they moved away from the mountains and the orthographic lifting that spawned them.
Floodzonenc, thanks for the link. Been tryin to find a site like that for the last two weeks.
anyone got a good radar link for the gulf.....i'm on the road this not my computer