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Tropical update; 4th warmest June on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:51 PM GMT on July 26, 2007

Thunderstorm activity has increased over the central Gulf of Mexico this morning, thanks to a tropical wave moving westward at 20-25 mph. Winds have increased to 20-25 mph at the Gulf of Mexico buoy 275 miles SSE of Sabine Pass, Texas, but pressures are not falling. Wind shear is 20 knots over the wave, and is expected to remain at least 20 knots over the next two days. This is probably too high to allow tropical development to occur.

Two computer models, the GFS and ECMWF, are indicating the possibility of a tropical storm forming in the mid-Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands by August 1. This is still a bit early for something to form in this region, given that the SSTs are average there. However, there is a strong tropical wave about to emerge from the coast of Africa that may be something to watch early next week as it moves over the central Atlantic.

Fourth Warmest June on record
June 2007 was the fourth warmest June for the globe on record, and the period January - June of 2007 was the second warmest such period ever, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The global temperature record goes back 128 years. The global average temperature for June was +0.55�C (+0.99�F) above the 20th century mean. Over land, June global temperatures were the third warmest ever measured. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (eighth warmest on record). All land areas, with the exception of Argentina, were warmer than average during the period January-June 2007.

June temperatures were particularly warm across Southeast Europe, where temperatures soared to 40�C (104�F). At least 40 deaths were blamed on the heat, and electricity demand reached record levels. Winter in the Southern Hemisphere was colder than average in Argentina and Australia, and Johannesburg, South Africa's largest city, received its first significant snowfall since 1981 on June 27.

23rd warmest June on record in the U.S.
In the U.S., June 2007 ranked as the 23rd warmest since record keeping began in 1895. The period January through May was the 18th warmest such period on record. It was the second driest January-June and driest April-June on record in the Southeast. Alabama was hardest hit, with 86 percent of the state's pasture and range lands in poor or very poor condition in early July.


Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for June 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Sea ice extent
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for June was the fourth lowest on record, the second straight month that we haven't had a record low. Arctic sea ice coverage in June has declined by about 10% since measurements began in 1979 (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for June, for the years 1979-2007. June 2007 had the fourth lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. May sea ice coverage has declined about 10% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

I'll have a new blog Friday.
Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Drak, the 18z GFS is picking up on the EATL wave imho

but, the 42w wave has a closed low and convection and the conditions are not overly hostile. Some dust to the NW. Other then that and the fact that it will at some point push a little S before moving back to the W WNW are the only real thing hindering it imho.
1002. LSU
TropicalNonsense....just stop, man. The blob is not a depression, nor will it be. You claim to have 25 years of weather experience yet you are trying to equate gusts at a buoy with a scale that measures sustained winds?
Yes it was Hawk, great to see you around :-)
1004. Drakoen
It only took one look at the cyclone phase diagram to confirm this.
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE TILTED ALONG 7N31W 16N27W MOVING W 10 KT. A SMALL
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N30W...AND THIS IS THE FOCUS OF A
RECENT BLOW-UP OF CONVECTION.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
10N-16N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

(thats your wave)
you have to give the Development process a chance.

winds are There.
Convection will most likely come back tommorow.

If Shear Drops You will see a Depression within 48
Hrs if it doesnt make landfall First.

Junkie, I think the 11N 45W disturbance would have a real shot if it wasn't being smacked by upper level easterlies.
Yes Drak, that is likely the one the GFS shows this run, but it has shown both develop at some point over the past four runs and now there is a closed surface low with the 45w wave. Worth keeping an eye on.
Posted By: hornfan at 9:19 PM CDT on July 26, 2007.

Here's hoping that it clears quickly and you get some much needed drying out time...
Yes - but Houston needs some time to dry out but there are many more areas in Texas that have been hit harder - SAT went thru another set of storms yesterday - the area between SAt and HOU has been getting hit. And Northern Texas has its issues too. It is all saturated -- there is no where for it go - All of us can take massive amounts of rain but the rain has been going on for a long time

I agree. A small shower right now will get you stuck in the immediate mud. There is no room left for moisture, no where for it to go.
Yep, Drakoen, it is. It was the "mystery wave" last night. TWD kept saying "will be introduced" but there was no indication on the latest sfc map...and nothing really significant on the sats. Late, the sfc map finally showed it. And, that's our interest area. Gotta get all my stuff back out on the desktop now; but, last I looked wasn't it above 10n, closer to 15n?
Posted By: TropicalNonsense at 2:24 AM GMT on July 27, 2007.

you have to give the Development process a chance.

winds are There.
Convection will most likely come back tommorow.

If Shear Drops You will see a Depression within 48
Hrs if it doesnt make landfall First.


The winds are gusts and are NOT sustained....
1014. Drakoen
That little "boogger wave" is not one anymore according to the latest rainbow shots. oh heres the cyclone phase diagram.
Hawk, is it right on the edge of that shear? And what shear maps do you prefer?
1017. Drakoen
Posted By: StormJunkie at 2:26 AM GMT on July 27, 2007.

Yes Drak, that is likely the one the GFS shows this run, but it has shown both develop at some point over the past four runs and now there is a closed surface low with the 45w wave. Worth keeping an eye on.


StormJunkie... Look at the coordinates of the post from the NHC.
1018. hornfan
One interesting issue is that this is one of the wettest July's on record in TX and guess what...... the others were 1900 (1900 Hurricane) 1961 (Carla) and I think 1943 (hurricane hit TX) so Texas coast needs to pay attention coming August and September. It may be a fluke, may not, but I don't like the pattern were in.

Good lord - its wet. The river system is at its max or very close. A fast moving CAt 1 or 2 will do better than a slow moving rain maker than does a name or the invest privilege. And I don't want to think what would happen if we really got hit after the saturation
1019. BtnTx
looks like th Suni's vs. Shiite here..
1020. Drakoen
heres the CMC forecast track.
rains come to an end in texas by sat night then a little dry spell to dry everything up for abot a week or ten days august will be dry for the first half anyway overall
How soon do they have the Barometer Bob shows up on the archive page? I'd love to listen to tonight's show - couldn't - had a meeting I couldn't back out of...
Pressures are down to 1008mb over africa....This wave has a very large envelope and could indeed be our first candidate for development in the coming days.

See loop here on EUMETSAT.Click 5 for close-up animation.
Junkie, I usually just watch satellite loops to get an idea of the shear. The only shear map I sometimes look at is the CIMSS one.
Drak, check the latest surface map. Not saying anything about the EATL or 30w wave, only saying that the 45 wave already has a closed surface low.

1027. Drakoen
tropicaldude i think you need to check your sources again.... on the CATL wave.
It is a lot easier for me to see on the visible loops Hawk, not good at spotting shear at night...Shear in general gives me a hard time though.
umm why is everything in bolb all of a sudden???
tropical nonsens says alot of nonsense anyway the brb show was good its over now though.
1033. Drakoen
Posted By: StormJunkie at 2:33 AM GMT on July 27, 2007.

Drak, check the latest surface map. Not saying anything about the EATL or 30w wave, only saying that the 45 wave already has a closed surface low.


true but the NHC said that:"...A SMALL
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N30W...AND THIS IS THE FOCUS OF A
RECENT BLOW-UP OF CONVECTION... "
Thats the wave the GFS is developing.
1037. hornfan
rains come to an end in texas by sat night then a little dry spell to dry everything up for about a week or ten days august will be dry for the first half anyway overall

Hmmm - hear that before - but what about the havoc before

And looks like th Suni's vs. Shiite here..
Naw - just a good ole fashion American debate but sometime I wonder if some of the bloggers played well in the sand box as kids. lol
1038. Drakoen
Check the cyclone phase diagram of both the CMC and the GFS model. The GFS has the system moving south then north...increasing in Intensity as it does so...
what's up with the BOLDing?

Somebody screwed up (you can find out by looking up through the comments; it starts at the screwed up comment and down from there).
Pressures are down to 1008mb over africa....This wave has a very large envelope and could indeed be our first candidate for development in the coming days.

Aren't pressures normally low over Africa, due to heat? STL said that once.
1042. Drakoen
Posted By: hurricane23 at 2:33 AM GMT on July 27, 2007.

Pressures are down to 1008mb over africa....This wave has a very large envelope and could indeed be our first candidate for development in the coming days.

See loop here on EUMETSAT.Click 5 for close-up animation.


Did you see the GFS and CMC cyclone phase diagram?
1044. RL3AO
The Africa wave is #4 right now behind the GOM and the 2 LLCs in the CAtl.
ok oh bold the blog
Posted By: KoritheMan at 9:40 PM CDT on July 26, 2007.

Pressures are down to 1008mb over africa....This wave has a very large envelope and could indeed be our first candidate for development in the coming days.

Aren't pressures normally low over Africa, due to heat? STL said that once.


True - and if you look at a model loop, you will notice that the low pressure over Africa more or less remains in place.
1048. Drakoen
I see the low level cyclonic cirulation on the satellite imagery.
Posted By: Drakoen at 2:38 AM GMT on July 27, 2007.
Posted By: StormJunkie at 2:33 AM GMT on July 27, 2007.

Drak, check the latest surface map. Not saying anything about the EATL or 30w wave, only saying that the 45 wave already has a closed surface low.

true but the NHC said that:"...A SMALL
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N30W...AND THIS IS THE FOCUS OF A
RECENT BLOW-UP OF CONVECTION... "
Thats the wave the GFS is developing.


...ok, my sat pages back up. YEP, Drakeon, this is the "mystery wave" from last night, that no one was paying any attention to, and wasn't on the sfc map until later.
By: KoritheMan at 7:40 PM PDT on July 26, 2007.

Pressures are down to 1008mb over africa....This wave has a very large envelope and could indeed be our first candidate for development in the coming days.

Aren't pressures normally low over Africa, due to heat? STL said that once


yes that is right wait in tell aug 15th to see some overe there
ok oh bold the blog

Just scroll up until the bolding disappears; the comment where it starts is the culprit.
1053. Drakoen
ok, night all

Drak, I think both areas are interesting and will be keeping an eye on both as well as what comes off the African coast.

See y'all tomorrow ☺
Have a good sleep, SJ. Good to hear you on Bbob!
It's bold agan.
1059. Drakoen
please don't use bold text. The low that i just posted the GFS has the low moving south then north according to the cyclone phase diagram.
Mine is not bold. Whats up with you guys ??
Drakoen i see that wave has 25kt of wind but not march t-storms to it
?? Don't know. 98L not here yet?
The show is up on the archive page, now. I love it "Bob on the Blob"...
1065. Drakoen
Taz that shows winds not thunderstorm activity
11n,47w is looking good, too! lol
To get rid of bold - click the bold button and delete the first part, where it puts (strong), leaving the second part (/strong); you may have to copy and paste this several times to fix it (same for italics).
1070. Drakoen
the area at 14N 30w is what we should be watching according to the models
Drakoen i no that part
it's italic.
I'm getting confused here. Will someone post a map showing Blob 1, Blob 2, etc. So that we can know who is discussing what ??
ok wish one is it


Here's a good shot of both waves. Scroll over and up or down to get a good close up look. For added frame length click on 24.

...agree, Drakoen. Last night when everyone was talking the model's forecast, they were thinking it was the wave "over" Africa; but it wasn't. It was this wave already over the water.
ggoodnight all
1077. Drakoen
Here's a sfc map. Find the wave at 14n,30w. That's what we're watching and what Drakoen and I agree is what the models are focusing on. IMHO.
Have a good one, TCC!


....dang, Drakoen...you sure are the "fastest" at posting applicable graphics! Great, perfect circles, too! whew...lol
just got home the gom didnt make texas still in the gulf and now its moving east am i right like i posted on page 7 ?
1081. Drakoen
lol MLC...
1082. CJ5
It looks like the 35w is causing some excitement tonight. That and the African wave both are areas to watch as they have been for several days. Time will tell how they pan out. Some cnditions are promising some are not.

The blob in the GOM will bring lots of rain to the gulf coast and that is probably all.
1083. RL3AO
I think the 35w wave might be the one. It has the 45w wave to keep the SAL away from it and it will be entering a somewhat favorable area.
1084. Drakoen
heh blog got quite...
currently on a blog wall replacement cycle
1086. CJ5
Posted By: Drakoen at 10:07 PM CDT on July 26, 2007.

heh blog got quite...


everyone is staring at sats looking for circulation and convection.
Drakoen, both waves in the 805TWD have language that looks interesting.
1088. Drakoen
LMAO
lol, Keeper!
1090. Drakoen
yea MLC we will have to see what happens during the diurnal max phase.
1091. CJ5
Posted By: KEEPEROFTHEGATE at 10:09 PM CDT on July 26, 2007.

currently on a blog wall replacement cycle


bwhahahahha
(chirp, chirp, chirp)
Hey everyone! I am looking at the wave in the atlantic and the GFS makes it to a 992mb and making landfall around South Carolina. Of course this is way out there and things can change quickly
1094. CJ5
I find the silence quite refreshing for a change.
1095. Drakoen
yea CJ5..
ok guys which wave is the bestto watch tonight is it the 35 west wave or the 40 w wave . and is the blob in gom moving ne or east now did the sheer get lower thanks
1098. Drakoen
Stormybil the thing in the GULF is just high clouds not much going on at the SFC. the wave to watch is at 14N 30W.
1099. RL3AO
I think the 35w wave is the one to watch
The blob in the GOM is moving towards the Texas and Louisiana coast. Nothing much happening. New Orleans saw a drizzle today with gusty winds. The blob I am watching is blob at 35w
1101. AG3MO
Is the blob in the GOM moving onshore overnight. If not won't the diurnal effects along with the weakening shear, produce likely TD conditions?? I do agree though as I said earlier tonight that the most promising features are moving off of Africa
I think the 35w wave is the one to watch

The circulations are at 45W and 30W.
GFS makes it to a 992mb and making landfall around South Carolina

Better watch out... it is likely WAY stronger than 992 mb; here is why. That can actually respresent a Category 5 hurricane...
Right, thanks Drak. I can see clearly now etc.
Isn't 992 mb's too high for a Cat 5?? Doesn't the MB's have to be in the lower 900's??
1106. RL3AO
If you look at the pic Nonsense posted it looks like a nice wave coming off of India. Will have to keep our eye on it as it is about 2 weeks away from the Atlantic.



P.S.: That was a joke.
If you look at this (colors indicate pressure), Rita was actually analysed as being stronger at landfall than it was at its true peak inetnsity (when it was analysed at only 995 mb)!

1108. Drakoen
lol RL3AO...
gom giving false echo its the convective effect being sheared ene tomorrow convection will again be intense beginning in west near texas sou/cen coast and bubble up all along the coast to l.a. if the pattern continues expect some very heavy rain till after sunset tomorrow
thanks is the blob in gom moving east now and can it still be td soon .
Thats weird. I lived through Katrina and then at my evacaution home I lived through Rita. Very strange
1112. RL3AO
The NHC is forecasting a remnant low, but it looks like it is becoming extratropical. What do you think?

1
You will NEVER see a pressure anywhere near 900 mb on a global model... here is another example of how they mislead you with their pressures:

HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

THE HURRICANE MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 630 PM EDT...2230Z EARLIER TODAY
NEAR THE BROWARD/MIAMI DADE COUNTY LINE. SINCE THEN...THE EYE
OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY WHERE THE CALM WAS EXPERIENCED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS...
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THE MIAMI NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OFFICE MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 984.5 MB DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE EYE AND THE WINDS
QUICKLY INCREASED IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL WITH A PEAK GUST OF 76
KNOTS. BECAUSE THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...KATRINA IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS
SUGGESTED BY ALL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BRING KATRINA
TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF MODEL DROPS THE PRESSURE OF KATRINA IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO 961 MB. THIS IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A GLOBAL MODEL.


Normally, 961 mb is only a Cat 2-3 - but that is actually incredibly low for a global model (which does not include the HWRF and GFDL, which are specialized high resolution hurricane models).
1114. Drakoen
yea RL3AO. just some low clouds now.
be nuttin but area of disturb wx with some tropical enhance moisture
1116. Drakoen
the GFS 0z is coming out...
Pretty interesting Michael. Thats fro showing that to me. I did not know that

ok
i know the africa wave went poof thats not what the gfs is showing the last 3 days its picking up the wave at 40 or 35 west and forming it to be a ts . not anything over africa i think people got confused there i didnt hehe i check it everyday and its still showing the same

chekit out here
Link
Also, as I showed in my blog here, it can be hard to determine exactly how strong a storm is with global models (including the GFS); the main graphic is of Typhoon Yutu, which had a minimum pressure of 916 mb (from the JTWC), yet the track shows it as staying at around 1000-1005 mb during its lifetime as a tropical cyclone (it actually appears to strengthen as an extratropical storm over cool waters, since the size increases and the low resolution of the model can pick it up better; the 0.5 degree resolution of the GFS is about 30 miles or so at that latitude). There are some clues, such as size and pressure gradients (a big storm on the models is likely to be stronger than a small storm, as is a tight storm vs a broad storm).

Being sheared to death.


A lot of scattered convection, but nothing too organized.

Also, come check out my blog reffering to our waves and disturbancs in the atlantic.
does anyone know where the gom wave is going at this time ? looks it may be traking east ? i cant tell thanks
1123. RL3AO
The GOM wave is moving NE.
Posted By: Drakoen at 8:27 PM PDT on July 26, 2007.

the GFS 0z is coming out...



any thing new ?
1126. Drakoen
Jp the wave that the GFS and the CMC is picking up on is at 14n 30w. Use the cyclone phase diagram...
Stormybil, it's either tracking E or ENE from what i could tell.
1128. Drakoen
Taz its just coming out its only at 36 hours now. It does show a low at that time though.
The GOM wave is moving NE.

thanks it might still gain convection tonight ill be watching it
big bad storm moving in south of miami
1132. JLPR
the one at 45 should disipate along with its low because of the very dry air in front of it maybe it will clear a path for the one behind it
Hey, TAZ, which one of these blob's gonna make it?
Have a good sleep, Jp!
i here it it sounds bad...residence are out.. gonna pop on the tube to maek sure...

BAD IN MIAMI!!



Kendall, Cutler BAy!
1136. AndyN
I keep hearing the GOM waves is in an environment not conducive for development.
1137. Drakoen
nite JP see you in the morning.
: moonlightcowboy i think the 1st one then the 2nd one or it could be the 2nd one then the 1st one
1140. Drakoen
AndyN the area in the GOM is just high level clouds not much going at the SFC.
Posted By: Drakoen at 8:46 PM PDT on July 26, 2007.

Taz its just coming out its only at 36 hours now. It does show a low at that time though


ok
jp...yeah, I do. It's not showing any signs of development now, though. Convection is limited and it doesn't have the greatest structure. As of now, it is a wave...but over the course of next week it may*** be more. O_o

Well, anyways, just gotta watch it... but, as of now, it's still rather disorganized.
1143. RL3AO
I keep hearing the GOM waves is in an environment not conducive for development.

Thats because its not.
1144. JLPR
well it could develop but it would have to do it slowly or it would suck the little moisture in front of it and hit the dry air
LOL, Taz. I guess so.Okay, let's see, I'm gonna go with the second one at 11n,30w because it's higher than 10n (at least for now...lol)! We just have to wait...:( no fun!
1148. AndyN
Thats what I thought. Seems like interest is finally beginning to peak at the waves coming off the coast of Africa. We are definitely getting to the interesting and some may say exciting part of the season. From this point forward I would venture to say that every wave may have that little bit of potential for development and will certainly peak our curiosity and cause us to take a second and sometimes third look at them.
Get some rest, Jp, gonna need it in coming days/weeks!
ok : moonlightcowboy
1154. Drakoen
Misterperfect just search the location on wonderground and click on the radar.
1155. AndyN
Give me one ping Pracilly...One Ping Only
Actually, nothing too exviting now here for me ***yawn.

But, "exciting" for me isn't having a cat 5 in the gulf. It's more along the lines seeing fish storms that are cat 5's or tropical cyclones(with the fish and Bermuda not in harm's way)... for instance, 2005, with Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta and etc....they formed in very rare conditions and did things unexepected (without harming things)...that to me is exciting. :) lol
Drak - I wouldn't really suggest "licking" the radar - all that voltage - someone will have perma-curls for life...
1166. Drakoen
lmao MrNiceville i didn't realize that typo.
What the hell are you people smoking in here...
good editing!

Well - gonna hit the rack - last day on contract tomorrow and I have to "brief" the new guys, so I have to be bright-eyed at 9AM.

Keep the blobs under control, plz...
1172. Blink
Is that what you're talking about mrperfect?

Link
Have a good one, Niceville!
1174. Drakoen
I'm gonna go soon just waiting for the 0z run to finish.
ill...never...leave...*tapes eyes open*
Drakoen, it's been a good day. BBob's show was good. We still have something interesting to watch...and occupy our compulsions...lol.
really bad lighting here in the Cutler Bay area. Most of the storms seem to be off shore though.
1179. Drakoen
yea MLC.
Bama, I hope you saw where I corrected my post on the shear near Africa last night. You were soooo right!

...lol. Do you need toothpics?
Posted By: Drakoen at 9:08 PM PDT on July 26, 2007.

I'm gonna go soon just waiting for the 0z run to finish.


any thing so far???
im wasnt right or wrong mlc....just addicted to watching blobs...LOL!
Taz, I think you're great, man! Question though: Do you stare at a microwave and wish it would hurry up? lol

...me, too sometimes! LOL
sure...toothpics always help. LOL
1185. Drakoen
Taz the GFS 0z up to 120 hours out continues to show development in the CATL.
Drakoen ok
Drakeon...quit killing the blog...
1188. Drakoen
how am i killing the blog...?
The low develops 36 hours out...
I was just saying that the GFS shows the system 120 hours out, meaning that wave is still intact at that time.
lol....gotcha...just kiddin' with a man.
... Oh Monty, Monty, Monty, I am walking down your hall
God be, I lost my seat but I'm not a man to crawl
No I didn't get rich you son of a bitch
I'll be back just wait and see
Cause my whole world lies waiting behind door number three
Yes my whole world lies waiting behind door number three
-- Jimmy Buffet's, "Door Number Three"

...ok, TAZ, I think I change my mind. Ok, I choose "Door #1" that Carol Merril is pointing to...the one at 10n,45w where the 1010 mb sfc low is located and forecast to move nw.

...decisions, decisions! lol
1191. Drakoen
GFS 144 hours out. Nite all. The system a few hundred miles from the northern lesser Antilles at that time.
lol, have a good sleep, Drakeon! Good timing, there!
Another appropriate, tropical-related post!

Trying To Reason With Hurricane Season

Squalls out on the gulf stream,
Big storms coming soon.
I passed out in my hammock,
God, I slept way past noon.
Stood up and tried to focus,
I hoped I wouldn't have to look far.
I knew I could use a Bloody Mary,
So I stumbled next door to the bar.

Chorus
And now I must confess,
I could use some rest.
I can't run at this pace very long.
Yes, it's quite insane,
I think it hurts my brain.
But it cleans me out and then I can go on.

There's something about this Sunday
It's a most peculiar gray
Strolling down the avenue
That's known as A1A
I was feeling tired, then I got inspired.
And I knew that it wouldn't last long
So all alone I walked back home, sat on my beach
And then I made up this song.

Chorus

Well, the wind is blowin' harder now
Fifty knots of there abouts,
There's white caps on the ocean.
And I'm watching for water spouts
It's time to close the shutters
It's time to go inside.
In a week I'll be in gay Paris;
That's a mighty long airplane ride.

Chorus
Yes, It cleans me out and then I can go on.


--Jimmy Buffet/A1A/1974
another biggie coming off africa stay tuned
MLCgoodnight4.gif

That's a good one to call it a night on, too!
Have a good one, all! Tomorrow is TGIF! Enjoy your weekend!

MLC <---------------out for some shut-eye!

gimme a dang CANE!!!!!!!!!!1111
Yes, let's give wederwatcher555 a hurricane and aim it straight at him! And let it be a cat 5! lol

But, really...if ur looking for a cane, just wait, till the first week of August or so, and we will be seeing cane after cane. I'm pretty sure we'll be sick of seeing hurricanes by the end of this season. ;-)...lol
lol good one! ya i sure hope so.
My blog is updated, once again...

I would appreciate anybody stopping by and reading...possibly even leaving a comment.

Mostly everything you need to know about the disturbances in the atlantic and Dilila in the pacific is here.
1200. dewfree
woo woo hurray lol oh me yaw crack me up
1201. dewfree

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270155
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


1202. dewfree
you know if i was crazy i would almost believe the fellows at NHC followed this blog
The "low" at Key West yesterday was 87 degrees, the warmest ever recorded there. A low of 86 degrees has happened on 4 previous occasions, one of which was the day before, and another on July 13th. This means that 3 of the 5 warmest lows ever there have been in the past 2 weeks. The ocean around there must be crazy warm!
you know if i was crazy i would almost believe the fellows at NHC followed this blog

...Meaning? So we keep our eye on things... Big deal. Stop doubting.
1205. dewfree
We can expect now that we have past he Solar maximums and past the point in whitvh the earth has already been the closest to the Sun in 40,000 years ;Now we can expect cooling faze to start and maybe it already has .
The oposite in fluid motion is beginning;just that same as winter and summer has differences this faze will cause a readjustment in models as well as thinking .
however the maxumums in the heat cycle with fluid motion in mind is still happening and the transitions will be slow.
Dont belive it will take forever that you and I want notice the change as it is in progress .
The NAO is in repose to the cycle change making its change. the thermal Atlantic conveyer belt is already making its move and changing ;example{the Gulf Stream appears to be dieing out }
In the last half centry between 1950 and todate the El'nino and la'nina index has made a significant change .Sence 1989 the index has leaned more to the El'nino event side of the index.The e'nino events have been longer in time and just alittle more intense..Now if you look at the index you will find that is a fact but;remeber while looking at the index that any event below _5 and above - 5 are considered normal and uneventful.
During 1950 to 1989 the La'nino even was more prevelant in nature and stronger. The el'nino events that accured durring that time period brought to us very cold and snowy event s .
I expect the opiaite to happen in the cooling cycle.I expect the la'nino events to bring us the cold and snowy events simply cause of the chnge in the NAO .Now this is more for the eastern sea board and ne with the El'nino events still doing its thing for the south east.
You ask what does this have to do witht he tropical page.These events are related. The tropical seasons most inveriably signals the winter type of weather.
Now back to the tropical . We have seen in the past that la'nina efects the way the tropical systems in the Atlantic impct the US mainland .Simply put it all but stops this from happening.I eblieve on the reverse side of this fluid motion that in the future .La'nino will help this to happen as did the El'nino events in the past did . The change is slow .The NAo is now changing and that is notable at present .Now the pacific has to make its adjustments.we may after these events make thier change run into a few years that their is no activity in iether the Atlantic or the Pacific.
I believe the end of that will take place sometime in between 2015 and 2020. and the world will cool to a great extent .nearing a 1350 event at its worste. mini ice age at best and just plain ice age at worste.between now and 2015 thier is a bummpy ride and strange events to happen . Remeber the colosle storm of 1979 that signaled the change.
To give and idea of the wether in the first few years well just think of the last few;Just in t adifferent way but same magnatude.what was the weather for 7 year after 1998 and 7 years before. but go a little further and waht was the weather like 10years before that 7 year period ;say1981 to 1991 then go back further to 1060 threw 1981 .
now with all this in mind think of the cycle withen the cycle. every thirty to thirty three years there sis a cycle withen the cycle.
we have in the last 150 years been in a warming cycle{the big cycle} with alternating little cycles every say 33 years on average.so
We have been in the large warm cycle and in the last 33 years the small warm cycle. now we are heading into a large cool cycle and at same time at the beginng of that we are finishing the small warm cycle/ Get it!! when we begin to enter the small cool cycle around 2007 this year humm. we will return to having huricanes threaten every three years instead of 2 out of three years.
what really has saved us from the worste in huricane attacks is right near the end of the large warm cycle we are entering into a small cooling faze of it/
It isnt over bynomeans ladies and gentlemen. however it will be alittle different that is all with less years attacking the coast . however it doesnt mean that the impact will be lessend. look at the patterns of the 1940s 10 50s and 60 the last small cooling cycle. It was very turbulant but just every three yearson average that is.
It want be long before they start claiming ice age again as they did once before .The only difference this time is the Large cycle will be in cooling faze and the globle Warmest will look to be right in thier babbling ice age. so get ready for the turbulance and other events that up till now have escaped us for the last 33 years.
I believe the tropical page will be talking as well late in the season about the winters and the discussion will continue .lol . have a nice day and my opinion on that subject is done for today.judst think of this for once what if a tropical system invades the US coastal plain with extreme cold onshoar. wow what an event . see ya

1207. dewfree
there are cycles that arent't understood by event he greatest minds as of yet . caused by the planets withen the solar system of ours.there are cycles that are just beign discovered on the Sun that has'nt yet been understood. their is things on the planet mercury that was thought not to be . Less then 500 years ago popular sience thought the planet was flat for crying out loud. so everyone has input on it all . no one is left out .If sience continue s to leave out those opinions that aren't so called educated then we will always have ingeneers that scratch thier head while a child figures out how to get the bus outfrom under the bridge. he he have anice note .
To add to your "...ests". May-June-July in the UK are the wettest in more than 200 years. Not particularly cold - overall still above the long-term average. But some places got double or treble the usual. La Nina and a more southerly than usual jetstream are blamed here.
TROPICAL LAGNIAPPE is a new tropical term for WU bloggers! Check it out! You never know what you can learn!
1212. dewfree
i have been around long enough to remeber when the glaciers grew at the rate of 3 to 6 feet a year. it is simply a cycle . I expect them to start growing again withen the next 15 years .No i not old just 40 or so he he lol
1214. mit5000
dailia is now a tropical depression with a 5% of become a t.s in the next 10 hours
1215. dewfree
A conglomerate withen the site itself .An association withen . you should get together and call it something like{The Wunderground Advocates society}or the {Wunderground Amature society} or maybe even The {Wu Tropical Respect club} Not being sarcastic iether just think it is an idea for you guys to start a society withen the site that has a main page with links to your work on the subject .Is that not a great idea?
1216. mit5000
i honestly dont know what u are talking about


ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 72W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N W OF
78W. UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTEND THROUGH 32N58W SW
TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 32N58W TO 26N64W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 54W-60W. BENIGN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE REGION PRODUCING ONLY
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

does this mean that a cyclone could develop ?????????????
it not very clear to me!
who is doubting . hummm where did that come from . and who are you to tell anyone anything .lol i will simply do as i can when i can without anyone permission but thank you for your concern anywaydoubting . Im not here looking for these things to come like a child does a snw storm cause he doesnt want o go to school the next day. i simply make uneducated observations and opinion and that is it . I certainly hope that doesnt bother you ,but just in case it does i will say too bad .have a good nite please and have alittle fun . thier isnt anything on the scope as of now to be worried about . certainly prey therem sint anyone hoping for it . that would surely be sick .doubting humm okie dokie . he he he he .

Keep your smart comments to yourself, or be deemed a troll.

Here's a hint:

Just because you don't want development to occur, doesn't mean it won't. Get over it. Weather does what it wants, I'd like to see what we say change that...
1218. dewfree
I remeber yesterday that i placed a spot on the blog saying something about people actually making forecast not just remarking on forecast of the resposible parties lforecast of what they think given thier knowledge and experiaces on a storm and develpment of course and posting it on the blog and not worrying about others when they fail to get it right .I said it would of course make fols loose repect for them when they do get it wrong and some one withen the repected of Wu LAGNIAPPE said that there are folks that do that and they dont loose repect from others whent hey get it wrong . I knew they were a long time blogger but didnt relize at the time they were part of a group that was so wel respected that they could actually do that without loosing respect from others.
however i now realise that even withen such things as blogs their are those that can do or say anything and not loose repect just like there are those in society no matter what they do they never loose repsect .Social standing plays everywhere i guess . It is like sience int he last 500 years and everything else if your in the group they will listen to ya if your not they want . very funny .someting never change . some people in retrospect never se waht they are creating untill it is done .it most certainly is better to try and be wrong then then to join a group that has respect and be wrong .I assure you of this. Im not bashing the groups just am stating the power and misleading way of society groups with across the board respect..Too dangerous a combination . would be like NHC to a local station forecaster one with so called more respect to then the other and the local not beign allowed to forecast outside the groups NHC in the lead.That is why for so long the earth was flat so to speak.Cause those that were the only repected groups didnt allow for other ideas and thus sience was stiffled fora long time period because of it. Just want to warn you of making such claims as long time repected members. see ya have a good nite .not hear to offent just to say what is on my mind and give my opinion . sorry if anyone is offended by it . I was nice in my explaination of it. Im gone for the nite . be have and don't bash me too much ya here!!
good morning
CALT disturbamce is battling 20 knots wind shear as well as very dry air to it's north east/ There are also multiple vortices within the system which is also hindering development
Good morning world. Systems are interesting out in the atlantic
Did you all see the buoy near the 45w system yesterday had only 82 degrees. The other buoy nearby only had 80. The water temp out there are cool as the result dry air and sal have been prevalent
SAL is weakening now...
We got very lucky with the GOM disturbance!
Good Morning everyone so whats going on with the tropics this early Friday morning anything looking like it might form now or soon?
1230. mit5000
has diara dissipated yet???
Still the potential for more heavy rainfall in SE Texas. From Houston:

HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TODAY FOR
A FEW REASONS. FIRST OFF WE HAVE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE THIS MORNING...WITH GPSMET DATA SHOWING PWS OF 2.2-2.3
INCHES ALONG THE COAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A WEAK LOW HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR CRP
...WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE UPPER TX COAST...WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST GULF INFLOW OF 15 TO
20 KTS SOUTH OF IT. THIS SFC TROUGH WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND AND
AID IN ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA. STRONG UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER SE TX WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEARLY STATIONARY OFF TO OUR WEST. NUMEROUS TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER SE TX TODAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE SRN HALF IN
PROXIMITY TO THE SFC BOUNDARY. TRAINING ALREADY SEEMS TO BE SETTING
UP OVER OUR SW ZONES (JACKSON/MATAGORDA/ WHARTON/BRAZORIA) AND
THIS COULD BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
1234. mit5000
BREAKING NEWS: AFRICAN WAVE HAS GAINED MOST OF ITS OLD CONVECTION BACK


so there must now be a decent potentall for t.d formation now
Hey dewfree, learn to spell. Maybe then I'll take your comments seriously, oh a little better english might help understanding what you are trying to say!!
What is everyones opinion of this years hurricane season. I run a temp firm and we work like crazy after a hurricane. Do you think it will be as big a season as people are saying?
1244. msphar
StormW 20N 60W minus 240 hours would be the African coast or thereabouts.
1245. Patrap
NRL Monterey Global Imagery
Note: Click desired image for more features and options.
Link not anything happening right now.Its a quiet scene
Pressure falling and out of the West at buoy 42019. It seems to be trying to develop but I don't think it's going to have time to do anything.
All models are calling for a depression or storm to form in the next week. The GFS, CMC, and ECMWF say near the Cape Verdes. The NOGAPS and UKMET say near the islands (from the CATL SFC low.)
g'morning, twc just mentioned that Jim Cantore is headed down to TX today. He's going to talk about the flooding there.
Morning all, welcome aboard ILT

Dang dude, your good, ESP or something ~)

Said morning even before I came in...lol

Anywho morning TD ☺

Good to see you SW, cg, er, pat, jp and all
1252. Drakoen
the GFS still in on the low to the SW of the CV islands.

Good Morning All...Going on my 10 day vacation today so I'll be back around August 7th; Yes, the shear/ull broke apart the GOM disturbance and it looks like things will be quiet in the ATL for the next several days (except for wave/blob watching for signs of possible development). We will see what August brings...My general thoughts are that June/July were typical (minimal activity) and that once again, the main factors to watch out for in terms of wave development will be shear/dry air values...In terms of movement, it will be the BH/Trough pattern set-up which is still pretty fluid at present.......Here's hoping for quiet August (or no land falling major storms) and I'll see everyone again early next month..........
1255. franck
The center of the system producing the convection in the Texas Gulf region appears to be about 100 miles east of Corpus Christi. It hasn't moved much over the last several days.
There may not be a low per se, but something appears centered there.
Have a good trip wwb
Thanks JP; I'll be up in Georgia so I'll have time to "run back" to Florida if I need to board up!..............
Here is a link to a buoy East of Corpus Christi that has had Westerly winds and falling pressures over the last couple of hours.

No one get their panties in a wad, I'm not predicting imminent death and destruction for everyone on the Gulf Coast, just pointing out an interesting weather buoy reading.
Hi Folks,, seldom post, but I definitely would watch the circulation at 30-35 west/15 north. It looks like it has a nice spin beginning to come together and has a tight look to it. Definitely smaller than all the blobs and interests we have watched so far this year, but, I believe, the tighter and more compact when they start out that far east, the more chance for development, even this early. Sometimes big things "do" come in smaller packages, just an observation. Obviously many miles to go (along with wind shear/dry air/dust/ etc/etc. and other variables to contend with before she becomes a player. Happy Friday everyone, enjoy your day.
P.S. DewFree, you may want to relax and tone it down a few decibals with your inputs. The knowledge is there, somewhat, (maybe not the spelling), but alas, we are not trying to rewrite War and Peace here, are we??
1261. Murko
Morning.

Is there anywhere I can find number of storms forecast for this hurricane season, with relation to particular areas? I remember seeing a map about a week ago with a central path, incl FL, painted red, indicating the highest possibility of getting hit.

Any help appreciated, thanks.

El Mrko
1262. Drakoen
RadarRich the GFS has the low mvoing South. So it should get some more moisture.
1263. Patrap
Im up..and breathing,not in the obits,Yeah,its another good day for sure SJ!..LOL
1264. Drakoen
The GFS long range showed whatever systems its developing coming very close to Florida. It looks like with each run it keeps moving more to the west. That is expected with that high building .
1265. Patrap
OMG!
What Pat?
1269. Patrap
Trofs plunging South and east like today...thata a buffer from the CV storms. But the BH should build in and establish the east to west road to perdition.
1270. Drakoen
here the link. Compare the area to the 0z run near Florida to the 06z.
Link
1271. Drakoen
I edit my post.... its the 0z and the 06z..
1272. Patrap
Theres a big ol ULL with a cold front still present near the Great Lakes a spinning..Till that boy gets out the way..its difficult..to get a CV storm ..close
Link
1274. Patrap
The front may even push offshore to the GOM and bring another few days of dryer,less humid air to the Gulf coast again.
1275. Drakoen
JP compare the 0z run to the 06z run and you will see.
1276. Patrap
Those long range looks are like tossing rocks into a pond and watching the wave rings..each toss will show a different pattern.A consensus,..its a consensus between the Models ..over time that one should focus on.If you comment on every run, youll lose focus and get er,,,stale .
00Z Euro. Link

Cycle through these plots.
1278. Patrap
NRL Monterey Global Imagery
Note: Click desired image for more features and options.
Link
1279. Drakoen
I just saw the ECMWF and it shows development as well.
1281. Patrap
Thats one big butted Front protecting the western Atlantic for now..and that has to move before anything will threaten for now Link
If you comment on every run, youll lose focus and get er,,,stale .

Can't wait for the July Arctic Sea Ice Report...as long as we're talking stale...
1284. Patrap
Go back in this blog archive for 14 days and look at the posts on Model development ..and 0% have developed. One needs to focus on the real time as well as the future to get a grasp of whats occuring,and whats LIKELY to occur downstream.Models are not Gospel..there HINTS at best that far out..
Yep, Drakoen, definitely with a shift a little south by the GFS model shows plenty of moisture available. Water vapor loops show more and more moisture in that area in contrast to previous weeks where it looked like the Sahara Desert. As DR. Masters said above: Two computer models, the GFS and ECMWF, are indicating the possibility of a tropical storm forming in the mid-Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands by August 1. This is still a bit early for something to form in this region, given that the SSTs are average there. Who knows, the timing seems about right for that scenario with this circulation, we shall see, as well as the wave just exiting Africa.
1286. Drakoen
the ECMWF at 144 hours out has the storm in the same position as the GFS 144 hours.
1287. Patrap
Artic Sea ice MP has a large role in Sunlight reflection,less sea ice..more UV absorption..its relevant to the big scheme. Not the QOD..LOL
1288. Drakoen
the CMC also forecast something as well..
1289. Patrap
And?
Relevance, maybe. Stale, definetly.
1291. Patrap
This dog dont hunt MP..or run with the pack,you should know that.LOL
The models have been calling for development for a while now. the problem is they have not been consistent and nothing has happenned so far. i believe itis the inconsistences of the long range forecast Be that as it may i am still keeping an eye on the CATL wave. THE CONVECTION HAS WAXED AND WANED FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW.Itis trying to consolidate along an area of lower pressure, as at the moment there are toomany vortices
SUPER LONG RANGE, HIGHLY INACCURATE GFS FORCAST. YIKES! WILL THE FARMERS BE RIGHT?

DISCLAIMER - FOR AMUSEMENT PURPOSES ONLY :-)
Isn't every fraction of everything relative to the big scheme? .358889 AU's closer to the Sun and this planet has rocks for congressmen.
1297. Patrap
La,la..morning MP!
1298. Patrap
Your post denotes anger,or something under your skin MP...LOL
Morning TCW and MP, good to see y'all

Anyone care to decipher what time the last ascending pass was?

Just having a rough morn Pat, sorry for that..unlike me. Maybe I should go find my "pack" or chase a car or something..
1301. Patrap
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico
Link
1304. Bonedog
Decending pass shows closed low at 12*N / 45*W

new blog
1306. Bonedog
oops

Link
gulf coast get out ur sandbags ur about to get real wet if not already from so cen texas all the way l.a.
1309. mit5000
lets see how long until fox say that a t.d has formed in africa without offical verfication!!!!!
im in a bad mood
its about dailia
u need to read my blog to find out