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Tropical Threat to Florida Next Week; Floods Persist in Texas, Europe

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:16 PM GMT on June 02, 2016

The next named storm for the Atlantic will be named Colin, and there is one potential area to watch for its development early next week: over the Western Caribbean, where a large area of low pressure laden with plenty of tropical moisture is expected to form. This low and its associated moisture will ride up to the north-northeast into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and start spreading heavy rains over Florida on Monday. About 10% - 30% of the members of the ensemble runs of the 00Z Thursday GFS and European models showed a tropical depression forming in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula early next week, with the storm making landfall along the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. There will be some high wind shear and dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico early next week in association with an upper-level trough of low pressure, and these conditions will likely interfere with development, making intensification into a hurricane unlikely. Regardless of development, heavy rains will be the main threat from this system, and  3 - 5" of rain can be expected over much of Florida during the period Monday - Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 30%, respectively. Given that the 00Z Thursday runs of all three of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European, and UKMET models--all showed some degree of development, I think the 5-day odds of development should be bumped up to 40%.

If Colin were to develop next week, it would be the earliest occurrence of the third Atlantic tropical storm of a calendar year in records going back to 1851, beating out an unnamed storm from June 12, 1887. One important caveat is that systems as weak as Bonnie could easily have been missed or underreported in the era before satellite observations.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending 8 am Thursday, June 9, 2016. A tropical disturbance is predicted to bring rainfall amounts of up to 3 - 5" inches to most of Florida, with most of the rain falling Monday and Tuesday. Image credit: National Weather Service.


Figure 2. Surface wind depiction of Tropical Depression Bonnie at 7 am EDT June 2, 2016, from earth.nullschool.net.

Bonnie is back
Bonnie came back to life as a tropical depression near the Outer Banks of North Carolina at 11 am EDT Thursday, when NHC began issuing advisories on the system again. Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed that Bonnie had regained its closed surface circulation, with a modest area of heavy thunderstorms near the center. These thunderstorms will likely bring 1 - 3" of rain to the Outer Banks of North Carolina through Thursday night. Bonnie is headed east-northeast out to sea, and will not cause any more trouble to land areas after Thursday. Bonnie will be under light wind shear and over the relatively warm 26°C (79°F) waters of the Gulf Stream through Thursday night, which may allow intensification to a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 - 45 mph winds by Friday morning. Later on Friday, Bonnie will encounter waters of 24°C (75°F) and cooler, which should cause dissipation by this weekend.

The 2016 version of Tropical Storm Bonnie was the seventh incarnation of the storm, which made its first appearance back in 1980. Only five other Atlantic storms have had more appearances than Bonnie--Arlene with ten, Florence with nine, Cindy with eight, Dolly with eight, and Frances with eight. The seven versions of Bonnie have made landfall in six different years (if we include landfalls at tropical depression strength). Only two other named storms, Arlene and Beryl, have also made landfalls as a tropical depression or stronger in as many as six different years:

BONNIE – 1980 – No; 1986 – Landfall Texas; 1992 – Landfall Crossing the Azores; 1998 – Landfall North Carolina; 2004 – Landfall Florida; 2010 – Landfall Florida; 2016 Landfall as Tropical Depression, South Carolina.

ARLENE – 1959 – Landfall Louisiana; 1963 – Landfall Bermuda; 1967 – No; 1971 – No; 1981 – Landfall Cuba; 1987 – No; 1993 – Landfall Texas; 1999 – No; 2005 – Landfall Florida; 2011 – Landfall Mexico.

BERYL – 1982 – Landfall Cape Verde Islands; 1988 – Landfall New Orleans; 1994 – Panama City, Florida; 2000 – Landfall Mexico; 2006 – Landfall Nantucket; 2012 – Jacksonville Beach, Florida.
 
Thanks go to wunderground member Mark Cole for these stats.

First tropical depression of the season likely in the Eastern Pacific this weekend
In the Eastern Pacific, satellite loops show that an area of heavy thunderstorms located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula has not improved in organization over the past day. However, this disturbance (91E) is likely to develop into the Eastern Pacific's first tropical cyclone of the year this weekend, according to recent runs of the GFS and European models. The disturbance is moving west-northwestward at about 10 - 15 mph, and is not a threat to any land areas. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 70% and 90%, respectively. Should 91E become a tropical storm, it would be named Agatha. The first named storm of the year in the Eastern Pacific typically forms on June 10, so we would be very close to the climatological pace we expect.


Figure 3. An aerial view of homes in the Horseshoe Bend area on the banks of the Brazos River in north central Texas on Wednesday, June 1, 2016. Residents of some rural southeast Texas counties braced for more flooding along the river that is expected to crest at a record level just two years after it had run dry in places because of drought. (Brandon Wade/Star-Telegram via AP)

Deep water in the heart of Texas
Heavy rains continue to plague much of the Southern Plains, thanks to a weak, slow-moving upper-level low parked over west Texas and a persistent feed of very rich tropical air into the region from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The upper low will trudge toward central and eastern Texas by Friday, then stall out before drifting southwest. Eventually, the low will get sheared out and/or picked up by a stronger upper trough moving through the eastern U.S. Until then, Texas will be vulnerable to multiple rounds of heavy thunderstorms packing torrential rain. After the Brazos River west of Houston hit a record crest on Monday (with levels reaching a new peak on Thursday), the river overflowed more than 200 miles to the northwest, in Parker County west of Fort Worth, overnight Tuesday night (see Figure 3). On Wednesday afternoon, flash floods pounded the Lubbock area as an estimated 3” to 5” of rain fell over parts of the city in a two-hour period. Overnight on Wednesday night, a mesoscale convective system (MCSs) formed over central Texas. After dumping more than 4” over parts of the San Antonio area, this MCS was drifting north on Thursday morning, while new showers and storms were developing to its east in the Houston area.

The exact location of the heaviest Texas downpours amid more general rains will evolve over the next couple of days based on where rain-cooled outflow and other hard-to-predict small-scale weather features set up. The high-resolution HRRR model indicates that Thursday’s heaviest rain will push northeast toward Louisiana, Arkansas, and Oklahoma late in the day, with the 4-km NAM model suggesting another MCS will bloom around the pre-existing circulation over central TX by Friday. Flash flood watches are plastered across much of central TX and OK, and river flooding may become an increasing concern as the wet days roll onward.


Figure 4. Infrared satellite imagery from NOAA’s GOES satellite shows a mesoscale convective complex over central Texas at 1415Z (10:15 am EDT) Thursday, June 2, 2016. Additional thunderstorms were forming over southeast TX. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Historic flooding across France, Germany
The death toll from a week of flooding rose to at least nine on Thursday as torrential rains continued to inundate parts of northwest Europe. Warm, moist air has been flowing into the region around a cut-off upper low located near Austria. With the low stranded in place, thunderstorms have been recurring day after day, with severe weather threats extending across much of the continent on Thursday (see Figure 5).


Figure 5. Severe weather outlook for Europe issued early Thursday, June 2, 2016. Image credit: European Storm Forecast Experiment (ESTOFEX).


Some of the worst flash flooding on Wednesday was in parts of southern Germany. The town of Simbach am Inn was devastated by flood waters that cascaded through the center of town, tossing vehicles and leaving behind mounds of debris (see Figure 6 below). At least three people were killed in Simbach am Inn, with several others missing.

Meanwhile, central France has been hit hard by river flooding, where water levels have toppled century-long records in some places. Flood guidance on Thursday from the French agency VIGICRUES targeted the region from Paris south through the Loire Valley as one of the highest-risk zones. Record crests from 1910 have already been broken along the Loing, a tributary of the Seine. Thousands of people have been evacuated across the region. On Thursday, some riverbank sections along the Seine in central Paris were already closed as water flowed into the region from the south. One of the city’s most renowned benchmarks of high water is the statue of a Zouave soldier at the Pont de l’Alma, built in the 1850s. The statue’s feet were covered on Thursday as the water height reached 4.45 meters, its highest level since at least 2001. During the city’s flood of record, in 1910, the water level reached the statue’s shoulders (8.62 meters). The Seine is predicted to crest between 5 and 6 meters on Friday, according to Le Monde. The Guardian has a powerful gallery of flood-related images from Germany and France.

Jeff Masters (tropical], Bob Henson [flooding]


Figure 6. Firemen rescue two women with their boat following heavy floods the day before on June 2, 2016 in Simbach am Inn, Germany. Flash floods from the swollen Inn river took local communities by surprise, trapping children at schools and forcing some residents to flee to their rooftops. Image credit: Sebastian Widmann/Getty Images.


Figure 7.. A man stands on a road flooded by the river Seine after its banks became flooded following heavy rainfalls in Paris on June 2, 2016. Torrential downpours have lashed parts of northern Europe in recent days, leaving four dead in Germany, breaching the banks of the Seine in Paris and flooding rural roads and villages. Image credit: Geoffroy Van der Hasselt/AFP/Getty Images.

Hurricane Flood Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 469. wunderkidcayman:



I would say a bit further South and a tad bit East
Area of low pressure might actually be forming now to be honest
Chances will go up
NHC needs to drop that circle much further South as I said before



Why would they put the circle further south? It probably won't develop until it gets near Cozumel or even north of the Yucitan sunday night if at all.......
Wake me up when the action starts Saturday night.Goodnight.
Quoting 502. MeteorologistTV:

Wake me up when the action starts Saturday night.Goodnight.


Nah.. you'll have till sunday night probably if at all..
Quoting 334. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I was thinking locusts and boils from a blistering sun but I have yet to decide


The locusts are 100-200 miles west southwest of us, brood V. DC metro gets brood X in 2021. I lost several citrus plants in 2004 last time they were here.
Quoting 461. wunderkidcayman:

Anyway I would have been on earlier been called in for emergency meeting
For possible tropical system impacts

As it's been forecasted either way this storm goes flooding rough seas and very gusty winds for Cayman and quite likely shelters will be opening with the Red Cross being the first to open

At the moment the government and other orgs are on alert/stand-by



No the Gov are not on stand-by or alert......no the shelters are not going to open......this will be much needed rain. Stop hyping
00Z GFS hot off the press (or Levi's website, thanks Levi)
Weaker on this run. Go home, hurricane season is a bust, MDR is dead, etc.
Quoting 505. spanishfisherman:



No the Gov are not on stand-by or alert......no the shelters are not going to open......this will be much needed rain. Stop hyping


he does that every year ... we are use to it
Quoting 507. KoritheMan:

Weaker on this run. Go home, hurricane season is a bust, MDR is dead, etc.

shear from what it looks like and drier air from the western gom... still a few days away.. also more land interaction... longer it takes to develop..the more W it goes and it wouldn't shock me if it makes the NW part of the Yucitan and misses the trough while the moisture flows NE towards FL.
Definitely a lot more land interaction this run, hence why it's weaker. I have a hard time believing that solution given the forecast environment over the West Caribbean. Even if we don't see a designated cyclone then, a more consolidated disturbance will move more poleward.
Quoting 473. Ed22:

Code red isn't far away but put it over the Western Caribbean N.H.C because the odds of the tropical disturbance forming into a Cyclone is pointing their as we analyze and anticipate it's development...


Agree as I said NHC need to put that circle in the W Caribbean
Quoting 511. wunderkidcayman:



Agree as I said NHC need to put that circle in the W Caribbean


It's not going to develop there
Quoting 510. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Definitely a lot more land interaction this run, hence why it's weaker. I have a hard time believing that solution given the forecast environment over the West Caribbean. Even if we don't see a designated cyclone then, a more consolidated disturbance will move more poleward.


Looks closer to the 12z ECMWF if anything.
Quoting 507. KoritheMan:

Weaker on this run. Go home, hurricane season is a bust, MDR is dead, etc.


Sarcasm flagged! This is your season Kori.
Quoting 505. spanishfisherman:



No the Gov are not on stand-by or alert......no the shelters are not going to open......this will be much needed rain. Stop hyping


Not hyping

Gov are standing-by and watching

Red Cross said they might open up shelter depending on what happens
516. IDTH
Quoting 510. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Definitely a lot more land interaction this run, hence why it's weaker. I have a hard time believing that solution given the forecast environment over the West Caribbean. Even if we don't see a designated cyclone then, a more consolidated disturbance will move more poleward.

I think this is gonna be stronger than the models are projecting. It seems to be developing quicker than projected and it's going to have quite a good environment to work from.
Solved my app problem w help from WU tech support.

Now another question from the ignorant peanut gallery: what's a "synoptic" pattern?

Oh, and what's a "secular" anything? I hear that adjective a lot, too, and always think, secular as opposed to ecclesiastic?
Quoting 516. IDTH:


I think this is gonna be stronger than the models are projecting. It seems to be developing quicker than projected and it's going to have quite a good environment to work from.


Good environment if you count lots of shear a good environment then ok this thing will be weak most likely unless it takes advantage of the warm SST
Quoting 513. CybrTeddy:



Looks closer to the 12z ECMWF if anything.

The ECMWF has it clipping the eastern part of the Yucatan. The GFS takes it further inland than the Belize/Guatemala border and then moves it due north up the entire landmass, lol.
Quoting 515. wunderkidcayman:



Not hyping

Gov are standing-by and watching

Red Cross said they might open up shelter depending on what happens

They are watching but not concerned... Red Cross won't open up a shelter cause none of the models show this becoming a TS till it gets near or past Cozumel and probably north of the Yucitan.. .Grand Caymens will be overcast and showers and some gusty winds... not much to cause any warrent!
,
I say develop just East of Honduras/Nicaragua boarder
Moves N
Doesn't get into gulf of Honduras or Yucatan or near Cozumel

Farthest W would be Eastern Yucatan channel/extreme W tip of Cuba
But do not despair if the GFS seems weak. CMC to the rescue!
Quoting 521. scottsvb:


They are watching but not concerned... Red Cross won't open up a shelter cause none of the models show this becoming a TS till it gets near or past Cozumel and probably north of the Yucitan.. .Grand Caymens will gets typical overcast and showers and some gusty winds... not much to cause any warrent!


I think you might be wrong but anyway we will see what happens
Ok after this potential colin another disturbances moves into the bay of Campeche 7 days out and look at the low shear
Quoting 523. wunderkidcayman:

I say develop just East of Honduras/Nicaragua boarder
Moves N
Doesn't get into gulf of Honduras or Yucatan or near Cozumel

Farthest W would be Eastern Yucatan channel/extreme W tip of Cuba


guess casting? cause there is no model that predicts that and conditions in the atmosphere don't show a North turn there.. the ridge extends almost to the Yucitan!
Quoting 524. Huracaneer:

But do not despair if the GFS seems weak. CMC to the rescue!



CMC is a Fun Model.... just for looks ,,, same with NavGem... Just use a blend of the GFS and Euro.. HWRF can be ok up to 48-60 hrs
Quoting 527. scottsvb:



guess casting? cause there is no model that predicts that and conditions in the atmosphere don't show a North turn there.. the ridge extends almost to the Yucitan!


Nope not guesscasting
Look I can certainly see this happening and the condition in the atmosphere to do so

But anyway let's see what happens what's changes occur over next 24-48hrs or so
Good early morning long time nite crew! Early fun in the tropics it appears! Looks like a busy season might be coming with ESNO and possible LaNina on the rise.
Quoting 526. James1981cane:

Ok after this potential colin another disturbances moves into the bay of Campeche 7 days out and look at the low shear

The Bay of Campeche is an area to watch in June as well.
Quoting 514. DeepSeaRising:



Sarcasm flagged! This is your season Kori.


Oops, you caught me. Thought I was being subtle. :P

But yeah, I know enough to realize a single model run is meaningless. We look for trends, not flukes. 0z ECMWF should be interesting.
Quoting 492. Camerooski:

So according to the 18z GFS model, me in Boca Raton will be getting 45 knots of wind! Not sure what to think of that...


It seems unlikely that such a large area of tropical storm force winds would happen over such a large area from such a relatively weak system. I find this model depiction exciting from a storm enthusiasts point of view, but still, I don't want to get my hopes up for 40-50 mph sustained winds in Orlando. Could happen though.
Quoting 531. HurricaneFan:


The Bay of Campeche is an area to watch in June as well.

And GFS is showing potential there a few days after the Gulf system. The upper-level setup would be great, and ocean temperatures would be warm, but the limiting factor as always would be time.
Quoting 530. TampaSpin:

Good early morning long time nite crew! Early fun in the tropics it appears! Looks like a busy season might be coming with ESNO and possible LaNina on the rise.


Yes agreed
Anyway I'm thinking I might call it a night maybe
537. IDTH
I think the CMC is gonna be right on this one but I'm just an amateur so take my opinion with a grain of salt.
Quoting 531. HurricaneFan:


The Bay of Campeche is an area to watch in June as well.

yes it is
Did you all see the uptick in MJO next week as well....perfect timing!
Quoting 515. wunderkidcayman:



Not hyping

Gov are standing-by and watching

Red Cross said they might open up shelter depending on what happens


I'm sorry but this is simply not true. The local weather authority will monitor this disturbance but no one is on stand-by or alert. From your next posts you state "it might happen "! This sort of sensationalism is not warranted or supported. Full stop. Just enjoy the weather and halt the wish casting it's childish
little interlude




Quoting 532. KoritheMan:



Oops, you caught me. Thought I was being subtle. :P

But yeah, I know enough to realize a single model run is meaningless. We look for trends, not flukes. 0z ECMWF should be interesting.
getting closer too a solution next 12 hrs in runs tell the tale
543. IDTH
Quoting 518. James1981cane:



Good environment if you count lots of shear a good environment then ok this thing will be weak most likely unless it takes advantage of the warm SST

Okay let's just discount the possible anti cyclone that may develop over it that models have showed. Again shear is high but if it develops quicker in the Caribbean, expect a more ventilated stronger storm.
XXL/AOI/XX


coming into view of next sector now just sw of Cayman islands invest 93L soon likely after 6 am or so
Quoting 545. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



coming into view of next sector now just sw of Cayman islands invest 93L soon likely after 6 am or so


Hmm
Quoting 542. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

getting closer too a solution next 12 hrs in runs tell the tale


It should be noted that even if the weaker 0z were to verify, we'd still get a bonafide TC. I also don't believe the system would just evaporate before reaching Florida like that, either.
Right I'm gonna say centre of system 13N 80W with a mid level rotation slightly off set NW
Quoting 554. wunderkidcayman:

Right I'm gonna say centre of system 13N 80W with a mid level rotation slightly off set NW


thats close enough
Quoting 555. scottsvb:



thats close enough
I got a center fix their as well give me a minute I will post an image
Quoting 555. scottsvb:



thats close enough


I guess we can agree on that

Also your comment count reached 1995
XXL/AOI/XX
13.85N/80.35W
Quoting 543. IDTH:


Okay let's just discount the possible anti cyclone that may develop over it that models have showed. Again shear is high but if it develops quicker in the Caribbean, expect a more ventilated stronger storm.

I think this could be the case IMO
Quoting 558. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

XXL/AOI/XX
13.85N/80.35W



Id say more like 13.00N 80.00W more or less anyway invest soon to cone nevertheless
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Bonnie, located about 75 miles east-northeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina.

A broad low pressure area is expected to form over the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico or the southern Gulf of Mexico by late this
weekend. Although upper-level winds are not forecast to be
particularly conducive for tropical cyclone formation, additional
development of the low could occur when it moves generally
northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico early
next week. This system is likely to produce heavy rains and
possible flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western
Cuba and the Florida peninsula.

1. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain
NavGEM inline with the GFS and Euro..now speeding it up and weaker around 1000-1002mbs and further north inline with the GFS or slightly south of there. Still a improvement on location points and speed. 0z Euro is coming out also!
Quoting 561. wunderkidcayman:



Id say more like 13.00N 80.00W more or less anyway invest soon to cone nevertheless


They won't move the cone... I've been in contact with the NHC this evening and they worded it as I said a hour ago. They might stretch it down into the NW carribean near Cozumel but nothing is expected as of now until late saturday night or Sunday morning.
Quoting 564. scottsvb:

NavGEM inline with the GFS and Euro..now speeding it up and weaker around 1000-1002mbs and further north inline with the GFS or slightly south of there. Still a improvement on location points and speed. 0z Euro is coming out also!


All the models falling in line with the Euro isn't really a surprise, lol. That usually happens.
ECMWF stronger and way more symmetrical, particularly at landfall. 1003 mb is the lowest it goes, but on a global model, the actual pressure is likely lower than that by several mbs, what with it being organized and all.
Quoting 568. KoritheMan:

ECMWF stronger and way more symmetrical, particularly at landfall. 1003 mb is the lowest it goes, but on a global model, the actual pressure is likely lower than that by several mbs, what with it being organized and all.


Euro is about the same as the GFS and it's previous run.. it's not stronger but yes the models usually under perform slightly. This (as of right now and it can change) is looking like a 997-1002mb moderate TS moving in from Sanibel Island, Fl to Cedar Key, Fl but again, too early to tell.. need that 72hr and less window!
not a tropical model but
nam at hr 72 has it at 1002 mb



More probable less than 100 hrs


Here it comes moving N into Cuba....
Quoting 570. scottsvb:



Euro is about the same as the GFS and it's previous run.. it's not stronger but yes the models usually under perform slightly. This (as of right now and it can change) is looking like a 997-1002mb moderate TS moving in from Sanibel Island, Fl to Cedar Key, Fl but again, too early to tell.. need that 72hr and less window!


It IS stronger when it comes off the Yucatan; 1003 vs 1005. It's not stronger at landfall, but it the isobaric distribution is less widespread, indicating greater organization. More classically tropical.
Quoting 573. sunlinepr:


rain for the cays its needed
ECMWF shows a tropical cyclone forming in the Gulf of Tehuantepec in 72 hours, probably from the tropical wave moving across Colombia. Thereafter, it moves northward into the Gulf of Mexico and becomes Danielle before dissipating off Texas. I wouldn't worry about the Gulf at the moment (especially since crossovers are rare, and thus the models may have a hard time with them), but a 72 hour Gulf of Tehuantepec cyclone from the ECMWF is an awfully close timeframe. At the very least it means the wave bears watching, especially since the GFS had the wave developing in the Gulf earlier.
The crud is about to hit the fan down here.

Storm warning: Qld, NSW braces for flooding, strong winds as pressure system bears down



A massive storm bearing down on Australia's east coast has gained momentum, as residents in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania are warned to brace for damaging winds, heavy rainfall and rough seas this weekend.

Emergency services are on standby in Queensland, with flash-flooding and powerful wind gusts expected to hit the south-east of the state from early Saturday. A strong upper trough will move east into the southern interior of Queensland on Friday, shifting into the south-east on Saturday and moving off the southern coast on Sunday, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).

The BoM said the trough was moving faster than expected, slightly reducing the threat of heavy intense rainfall from Fraser Island to Brisbane's northside.

But the bureau warned drenching falls and damaging winds were still set to lash areas from Brisbane's CBD and southern suburbs through to the Gold Coast.

The Gold Coast City Council said it planned to close all beaches tomorrow and swift water rescue teams would be deployed to potential trouble spots.

The developing east coast low could bring falls of up to 80 millimetres, while wind speeds along the coast, south of Fraser Island, could reach damaging gales of 100 kilometres per hour.

Senior bureau forecaster Michael Knepp said extreme conditions were expected to hit on Saturday morning and there was a real risk of flash flooding.

"The threat of heavy intense rainfall has diminished a little but but the threat is still there," he said.

Heavy rains should start to contract southeast on Saturday morning, easing around Brisbane from mid-afternoon, and easing around the Gold Coast during Saturday evening.

NSW, ACT, Victoria and Tasmania also face heavy rainfall

The low system is forecast to move further south on Saturday, bringing damaging wind gusts of up to 90 kilometres an hour to north-eastern New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory. Heavy rain and flash flooding is also predicted, with weekend rainfall of 80 to 150 mm likely and localised falls between 200 and 300 mm predicted for the state.

The north coast of NSW from Byron Bay to Port Macquarie is expected to bear the brunt, with gale-force winds and a four-metre swell predicted.

"US Navy computer modelling is saying 12 to 15 [feet] and bigger, maybe even 20 feet in some places. We're thinking specifically Sydney and northern New South Wales," surf forecaster Mike Perry said.

"It's going to be big. But it's a north-easterly swell. With that much wind and so close to us it's unruly and the period between waves will probably be between four to seven seconds, which is not much. Entirely unsafe for everybody."

The BoM is urging anyone involved in coastal activities over the weekend to take care.

Meanwhile yet further south in Victoria, Gippsland is being warned to batten down the hatches this weekend, with up to 100 millimetres of rain expected to fall across the east of the state.

Falls of 20 to 40 millimetres have been forecast in the far east of the state on Saturday, with the heaviest expected on Sunday. Tasmania is also expecting strong winds on Saturday east of Flinders Island. A flood watch has been issued for all northern and eastern river basins.

Quoting 505. spanishfisherman:



No the Gov are not on stand-by or alert......no the shelters are not going to open......this will be much needed rain. Stop hyping
Say, r u from Caymans too? If so, welcome... if not, where r u located?
Heavy shower/storm starting to move throught the northern suburbs of Sydney. Moving at a fair clip too.
Quoting 530. TampaSpin:

Good early morning long time nite crew! Early fun in the tropics it appears! Looks like a busy season might be coming with ESNO and possible LaNina on the rise.
Hey, TS, took u a long time to look in..... lol .... good to see you in the blog....

Even if the rest of the season is pretty average, we seem to be getting off to an exciting start with an early June TS....
Good morning all.



Looking good so far ... I wouldn't be surprised to see an invest this morning .... and an eastward shift in the AOI circle at NHC...
Quoting 456. Hurricanes101:



I live near Tampa, so for me it is rain coat, umbrella, water, batteries and canned food just in case lol

A canoe might not be a bad idea either.
Quoting 580. AussieStorm:

Heavy shower/storm starting to move throught the northern suburbs of Sydney. Moving at a fair clip too.

Hey, Aussie...rain seems to be the order of the day almost everywhere, except maybe CA..... hope the flooding isn't too bad.....
Quoting 583. Chicklit:


A canoe might not be a bad idea either.
Hey, Chick, how r u? Looks to be an early and possibly busy season....
Quoting 585. Chicklit:


still a fair amount of westerly shear to deal with ...
not too shabby
Quoting 588. Chicklit:

not too shabby

Agreed. Was thinking the parent Twave may stir up the EPAC as well ... low shear on that side...
Quoting 584. BahaHurican:

Hey, Aussie...rain seems to be the order of the day almost everywhere, except maybe CA..... hope the flooding isn't too bad.....


Aye, me too. But, we've been needing the rain after our warmest ever Autumn in Sydney. East Coast Lows are the norm in a typical winter. I'll expect a maybe 3 or 4 more of these ECL's by the time Winter is over.

Radar update. This clearly shows there is plenty of moisture in the atmosphere.

Quoting 586. BahaHurican:

Hey, Chick, how r u? Looks to be an early and possibly busy season....

Hey Baha...Yeah, it's pretty cool...can't remember how long it's been since we didn't have an El Nino season.
Glad to see KMan's golf course will get some natural irrigation lol.
Looking at this rainmaker, some parts of Florida can handle five to seven inches at a time better than others. Still, with our wildlife and habitat I'd rather have more rain than less.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-animated. gif

Shear

got to get going...l8r
595. MahFL
Quoting 492. Camerooski:

So according to the 18z GFS model, me in Boca Raton will be getting 45 knots of wind! Not sure what to think of that...


Remember those are 850mb (about 5000ft ) winds, not surface winds.
Good Morning
Quoting 573. sunlinepr:



Here it comes moving N into Cuba....

Morning all. Looks like our little storm is getting pretty big. Moving a bit more north. Shouldn't he be moving more NW right now? Also, look at the rotation over Texas! Looks like a large tropical system.
Quoting 587. BahaHurican:

still a fair amount of westerly shear to deal with ...

Shear has come down nicely for this storm since the 40-50 kts we are used to seeing this time of the year from the STJ. Conditions should really start to improve late Saturday evening. It will be interesting to see if our system can organize as a result.
good/morning.fast.mover..nhc...Global models indicate an area of
developing low pressure across the Gulf of Honduras to move across
the Yucatan peninsula Sunday and into the south-central Gulf
waters Sunday night into early Monday...reaching the NE Gulf by
early Tuesday. Likely hazards from this potential area of low
pressure will be increased winds and building seas across the
central and E Gulf waters...in addition to the likelihood of heavy
rainfall and possible flooding across central and northern Florida
early next week.
The last 2 runs of GFS show a weaker and more elongated system as it nears Florida. Sees shear as the main problem. Don't know if I trust it because the Euro is showing a more organized system. Organized or not a lot of rain coming our way in Florida.
Quoting 600. WeatherkidJoe2323:

The last 2 runs of GFS show a weaker and more elongated system as it nears Florida. Sees shear as the main problem. Don't know if I trust it because the Euro is showing a more organized system. Organized or not a lot of rain coming our way in Florida.


6z GFS run also showing quite a bit of land interaction with the Yucatan.
Quoting 601. Ricki13th:



GFS also showing quite a bit of land interaction with the Yucatan.


That is true and Euro is a little but further East not by much with some land interaction closer to the NW Caribbean and I think that will be key as to where will it get going. Less land in its way will obviously organize it quicker. Still a lot to watch
Good Morning. Grand Cayman and Jamaica are getting a little more rain than they bargained for this morning and the huge ULL remains parked over Texas:



South Plains sector loop



And here the look and Conus forecast for today (and Bonnie finally headed off-shore):


And the convective forecast where the polar jet is converging over the upper mid-west:



Have a good day everyone! I'll check back in later when the afternoon models start coming out :)
NW Carib. theres an area of the world that deserves a good soaking.
New maps are in 09 and low level vort increasing and becoming more consolidated centered about 12N 79W/13N 80W around there
Also wind shear falling in area 5-10kts now with the upper level anticyclone starting to develop over the area low level convergence is increasing and upper divergence

Convection starting to increase in the area I see two blobs of convection one South of Cayman and the other off the Colombian coast with a thickening developing line of convection connecting the two blobs in the the middle of this is where the increasing vort is located

Also sfc obs also show pressures falling in that area

I'm expecting the convection to increase over that area and that area to be where the low forms IMO I suspect this is where invest 93L will tagged soon IMO
Just saw the highlights for the Houston Dynamo trying to play soccer in all that rain. It looked like they were running in an inch of standing water.
Here is the portion of today's TWD discussing the Caribbean low:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The main feature in the basin is a tropical wave
moving across the SW waters discussed in more details in the
tropical waves section. An upper trough over the SW N Atlantic
with base near the Windward passage and a broad ridge anchored N
of Colombia promote a diffluent and unstable environment across
the SW, central and portions of NW Caribbean. Given the favorable
lifting dynamics and the presence of the tropical wave, numerous heavy
showers and tstms are occurring from 15N-20N between 76W and 83W
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of 15N
between 73W and 80W. Scattered to isolated showers are occurring
elsewhere E of 73W. Strong high pres NE of the Caribbean tightens
the gradient and support moderate to fresh trades over the
eastern basin and fresh to strong S of 18N E of the tropical wave
axis to 66W. The area of fresh to strong trades are expected to
expand and drift W-NW as the tropical wave continues its westward
path and a low pres forms over the weekend N of Honduras. Strong
to near gale force SE winds will accompany this low pressure area
on its eastern periphery and impact the NW Caribbean waters and
Yucatan Channel region.

Navy moved north at 00Z, let's see if that holds
And here it is (5 day):

ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Bonnie, located about 130 miles east-northeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina.

1. An area of showers and thunderstorms has developed over the western
Caribbean Sea. This system is moving west-northwestward toward the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and a low pressure area is expected to
form over the Yucatan or the adjacent waters by late this weekend.
This low could develop into a tropical cyclone as it subsequently
moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula
early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
YEEESSSS!!!!!!!
Finally NHC has changed the TWO
About bloody time
Quoting 613. wunderkidcayman:

YEEESSSS!!!!!!!
Finally NHC has changed the TWO
About bloody time


Now up to 10% chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours and 60% in the next 120 hours. This system is very broad, but seems to be growing convection inward this morning.

Although the TWO does need to change some more
IMO we could see that happening over next 24hrs

TWO needs to shift area further S and E
MMM? NHC has the X up! Looks like development is coming.
Something to keep an eye on over the weekend and into Monday:

Quoting 615. wunderkidcayman:

Although the TWO does need to change some more
IMO we could see that happening over next 24hrs

TWO needs to shift area further S and E

Why?
619. Tcwx2
Would love to see an invest declared but there isn't enough to put a invest on right now. Need to declare invest as soon as an area of spin develops so that we can get some better model data.
Wu dermis where is the anti cyclone and no shear? Still way too much shear
Quoting 615. wunderkidcayman:

Although the TWO does need to change some more
IMO we could see that happening over next 24hrs

TWO needs to shift area further S and E


Please, why? They know what they are doing.
Don't be mislead by the wave. Sometimes what we see isn't always there. While this wave will be mos likely contribute to the convection of the possible system, I am not focusing on it. The strong pressure drops will have to occur later and possibly draw this into it. Sometimes these systems are like politicians. They may look promising but usually just filled with a lot of hot air.



Quoting 618. sporteguy03:


Why?

Because he lives int he Cayman Islands and wants a storm.
And finally the current shear and 24 tendency:

Good to see the NHC finally giving us the yellow crayon on the system that's in the Western Caribbean. That region is very moist will lots of instability which is a change from previous years. Vorticity in that area is also getting a little better defined. A invest designation is possible sometime today as a area of low pressure might be trying to develop soon...


Upper level wind shear is still unfavorable but is slowly decreasing.
Quoting 618. sporteguy03:


Why?


Because thats where the Caymans are
Quoting 612. weathermanwannabe:

And here it is (5 day):

ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Bonnie, located about 130 miles east-northeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina.

1. An area of showers and thunderstorms has developed over the western
Caribbean Sea. This system is moving west-northwestward toward the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and a low pressure area is expected to
form over the Yucatan or the adjacent waters by late this weekend.
This low could develop into a tropical cyclone as it subsequently
moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula
early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
Beautiful.... solves the problem of moving the circle..... while clearly indicating the point of origin.....

:-)
This thing is organizing guys. We really need to watch as the TWC is worried that Tampa Bay could be in for a significant Storm Surge with this system especially if it takes the Track the Euro and CMC are showing along with intensity.

Quoting 614. ILwthrfan:



Now up to 10% of tropical formation within the next 48 hours and 60% in the next 120 hours. This system is very broad, but seems to be growing convection inward this morning.







That x needs to be dropped South and Eastwards closer to where the actual low level vort Max is located

Either way as I said I expect some changes today and singing a bit of a different tune than last few days

But what we really need a a recon flight on Saturday that is what we need
Well, quote me if I am wrong. But this system has done pretty well in 40-50 KTS of shear. Unless I am not looking at something right on the maps.
Quoting 628. StormTrackerScott:

This thing is organizing guys. We really need to watch as the TWC is worried that Tampa Bay could be in for a significant Storm Surge with this system especially if it takes the Track the Euro and CMC are showing along with intensity.





Significant storm surge from a super weak elongated TS?

Right now the ULL tutt cell just to the North of the Yucatan Peninsula is enhancing the convection to the East but that is not the surface low (yet to develop):





We should have 93L soon.
Quoting 633. StormTrackerScott:

We should have 93L soon.


We should have an idea about the system based on the setup this afternoon. It's going to be messy.
Quoting 615. wunderkidcayman:

Although the TWO does need to change some more
IMO we could see that happening over next 24hrs

TWO needs to shift area further S and E
It's fine as is.... shows where the AOI is and also the likely area for tc formation. There IS still a fair bit of shear going that will mean slow organization....
Quoting 602. WeatherkidJoe2323:



That is true and Euro is a little but further East not by much with some land interaction closer to the NW Caribbean and I think that will be key as to where will it get going. Less land in its way will obviously organize it quicker. Still a lot to watch


GFS is off as its not initializing where the low is. Euro and CMC are right on point with the point of origin. That is the reason for the GFS being weaker but once 93L is designated which should be anytime now then we will see the GFS have better runs later today,
Quoting 629. wunderkidcayman:



That x needs to be dropped South and Eastwards closer to where the actual low level vort Max is located

Either way as I said I expect some changes today and singing a bit of a different tune than last few days

But what we really need a a recon flight on Saturday that is what we need


What has changed? The forecast area for development is in the GOM which the NHC had been consistent with. There is no low yet, moisture is building in the NW Caribbean are moving towards the Yucatan where low pressure is expected to develop.
Does everyone remember Bonnie??

This is her now....

Feel old yet??

Quoting 615. wunderkidcayman:

Although the TWO does need to change some more
IMO we could see that happening over next 24hrs

TWO needs to shift area further S and E
It's fine as is.... shows where the AOI is and also the likely area for tc formation. There IS still a fair bit of shear going that will mean slow organization....
Quoting 620. 19N81W:

Wu dermis where is the anti cyclone and no shear? Still way too much shear
The shear is expected to drop later today and tomorrow... leading potentially to development on Sunday.... is it raining down there? I know a big cloud doesn't automatically mean rain.....
Rapidscat from overnight.
Pics, story, and video from the soccer game in Houston delayed 2 hours due to rain. [Link]
Quoting 639. BahaHurican:

It's fine as is.... shows where the AOI is and also the likely area for tc formation. There IS still a fair bit of shear going that will mean slow organization....
The shear is expected to drop later today and tomorrow... leading potentially to development on Sunday.... is it raining down there? I know a big cloud doesn't automatically mean rain.....
Good morning Baha. Lots of much needed rain.
Quoting 618. sporteguy03:


Why?


Well first off the low level vort Max is centered further SE of where that X is on TWO
Secondly I don't buy the WNW track into the gulf of Honduras and into the Yucatan
I do think it will be more of a Northerly Track more NNW N then NNE making no land interaction with Central America rather staying more into the NW Caribbean with a landfall with West tip of Cuba or passing through the eastern Yucatan channel then into Florida keys and/or SW mainland Florida

Quoting 619. Tcwx2:

Would love to see an invest declared but there isn't enough to put a invest on right now. Need to declare invest as soon as an area of spin develops so that we can get some better model data.


A spin is developing
SW Caribbean near 13N 80W


Quoting 620. 19N81W:

Wu dermis where is the anti cyclone and no shear? Still way too much shear


Upper level anticyclone is developing and shear is indeed falling in SW Caribbean and its expanding outwards

Quoting 621. Bucsboltsfan:



Please, with your south and east towards the Caymans. They know what they are doing.


Umm you do realise that if I was doing that nonsense that your going on about I would be saying N and E because that's where cayman is you know that right???

Quoting 623. gator23:


Because he lives int he Cayman Islands and wants a storm.


Un no silly head that's not why :P

Quoting 627. BahaHurican:

Beautiful.... solves the problem of moving the circle..... while clearly indicating the point of origin.....

:-)


Maybe maybe not I still say there is a problem

Quoting 628. StormTrackerScott:

This thing is organizing guys. We really need to watch as the TWC is worried that Tampa Bay could be in for a significant Storm Surge with this system especially if it takes the Track the Euro and CMC are showing along with intensity.




It's organising quick too IMO

I do think this system track will shift S and E compared to the models I'm expecting more S of Tampa bay more keys and SW mainland area IMO

As noted by NHC, the favorable area for development for this disturbance will be off the Yucatan and in the Gulf in a few days; it's a slow burn but we should have a better idea by Sunday. The good news is that the Gulf eddy that was pretty persistent a few months ago has dissipated so there is no extra fuel in case shear was to drop significantly:


Let all just quit the arguing here and let just wait and watch yeah

Quoting 622. Grothar:

Don't be mislead by the wave. Sometimes what we see isn't always there. While this wave will be mos likely contribute to the convection of the possible system, I am not focusing on it. The strong pressure drops will have to occur later and possibly draw this into it. Sometimes these systems are like politicians. They may look promising but usually just filled with a lot of hot air.




The Twave is supposed to be a catalyst... kicking off the action. That is why 2-3 days ago I was saying we should be looking at the SW Car. The Twaves were already running through that area, adding a little twist and destabilizing the atmosphere enough to build showers. It was pretty obvious something would happen down there, then move either W into the EPAC or NW as we are expecting this to do.

Can't remember who used to say it, but it's still true that it's all climatology......
And in case if you are wondering No I don't expect this system to hit cayman at all
So that kills that part of the argument done right there

Ok so that it on that matter
Quoting 632. weathermanwannabe:

Right now the ULL tutt cell just to the North of the Yucatan Peninsula is enhancing the convection to the East but that is not the surface low (yet to develop):






Also keep in mind how rich the TCHP is where the blob is.... the north end of that Twave should be looking like that.....
Quoting 638. JrWeathermanFL:

Does everyone remember Bonnie??

This is her now....

Feel old yet??


Still looking good, considering Bonnie was supposed to be done by now.....
A
Quoting 642. stormwatcherCI:

Good morning Baha. Lots of much needed rain.
Super. I'm sure you're ok with rain as opposed to a full blown TC....

:-)
Thanks for posting the RapidSCAT, Skye.... shows the Twave, but no LLC. We've a way to go to a TC with this.....
652. Ed22
Quoting 628. StormTrackerScott:

This thing is organizing guys. We really need to watch as the TWC is worried that Tampa Bay could be in for a significant Storm Surge with this system especially if it takes the Track the Euro and CMC are showing along with intensity.



Yes it is organising but theirs no low level yet, however it's developing as we continue to analyze it...
Its that time of the year in that region of the world (Central American monsoon and the heightened activity in the Western Caribbean):

June Hurricane Climatology




Quoting 628. StormTrackerScott:

This thing is organizing guys. We really need to watch as the TWC is worried that Tampa Bay could be in for a significant Storm Surge with this system especially if it takes the Track the Euro and CMC are showing along with intensity.




What??? Storm Surge? All I see on TWC web site is reference to rain potential.
Quoting 648. wunderkidcayman:

And in case if you are wondering No I don't expect this system to hit cayman at all
So that kills that part of the argument done right there

Ok so that it on that matter
Nope... you guys should at least get a couple inches of rain from this.... best case scenario indeed.....
Quoting 647. BahaHurican:

The Twave is supposed to be a catalyst... kicking off the action. That is why 2-3 days ago I was saying we should be looking at the SW Car. The Twaves were already running through that area, adding a little twist and destabilizing the atmosphere enough to build showers. It was pretty obvious something would happen down there, then move either W into the EPAC or NW as we are expecting this to do.

Can't remember who used to say it, but it's still true that it's all climatology......


Morning, Baha. And you are correct. By the way, I think I overheard Ben Franklin say that about climatology. That was the day I got mad at him and told him to "go fly a kite"
657. Ed22
Quoting 627. BahaHurican:

Beautiful.... solves the problem of moving the circle..... while clearly indicating the point of origin.....

:-)
It looks like the N.H.C was reading over post and agree our statement on this tropical disturbance, put an × to represent it...
Quoting 650. BahaHurican:

Still looking good, considering Bonnie was supposed to be done by now.....
ASuper. I'm sure you're ok with rain as opposed to a full blown TC....

:-)

This possible future Colin has stolen poor Bonnie's attention...
659. Ed22
Quoting 653. weathermanwannabe:

Its that time of the year in that region of the world (Central American monsoon and the heightened activity in the Western Caribbean):

June Hurricane Climatology





GEOS-5
661. Ed22
Quoting 658. HurricaneFan:


This possible future Colin has stolen poor Bonnie's attention...

No not really Bonnie is doing his thing and future Colin her thing it just because it closer to home that's why...
Quoting 656. Grothar:



Morning, Baha. And you are correct. By the way, I think I overheard Ben Franklin say that about climatology. That was the day I got mad at him and told him to "go fly a kite"

LOL!!
Quoting 658. HurricaneFan:


This possible future Colin has stolen poor Bonnie's attention...
If Bonnie was supposed to recurve and hit the Jersey shore, we'd be singing a different song ... lol ...

So much to watch this morning..... Bonnie... that snarky ULL... Twave in the WCAR.... even the trough that has been hanging around near the SE Bahamas.... very interesting pattern, and lots of fun for wx enthusiasts...

Have a great day!o
Quoting 663. BahaHurican:

If Bonnie was supposed to recurve and hit the Jersey shore, we'd be singing a different song ... lol ...

So much to watch this morning..... Bonnie... that snarky ULL... Twave in the WCAR.... even the trough that has been hanging around near the SE Bahamas.... very interesting pattern, and lots of fun for wx enthusiasts...

Have a great day!o

Oddly the trajectory of Bonnie keeps shifting south again....it's almost like it's tracking towards where Alex formed...lol (but it should dissipate by that time)
Persistent trough east of the Bahamas
Models are still showing a broad, elongated system as of now.

GFS



HWRF



The storm will not have time to take advantage of these waters.A blessing in disguise for sure.
Quoting 667. washingtonian115:

The storm will not have time to take advantage of these waters.A blessing in disguise for sure.

Lol it's just June and we are already seeing so much activity.

I-95 reopened after severe flooding
UPDATED 8:32 AM EDT May 30, 2016



JASPER COUNTY, S.C. —I-95 Southbound in Jasper County reopened early Monday morning after severe flooding closed it Sunday, SC DOT officials said in a release.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie will continue to soak the...
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie will continue to soak the Central and Eastern Carolinas

Bonnie, is now a post-tropical system. As of Monday night it hadn't really moved a lot, according to WYFF News 4 Chief Meteorologist John Cessarich.
More

Crews worked Sunday afternoon to rescue people stranded by the flooding.

One man said he tried to drive through the water when he got caught and his car started to sink.

He said he crawled through a window and was rescued.

Many roads in the area are still closed due to the flooding from the storm.
US 17 near I-95, Exit 22
SC 336 closed from Bees Creek to Low Country Drive
Calf Pen Bay Road closed from US 278
Tarboro Road closed from Lynch Ford Road to Malphrus Road
Frontage Road (S-425) closed
Sisters Ferry Road closed
Carters Mill Road closed

I'm late posting this but last Sunday May 29 2016, I was trying to drive home from Hilton Head Island, and Bonnie, when the rains flooded the highway. I took an alternate route, and had to slam-on the brakes four separate times as the water crossed the road like a river. It was only 4" deep across the road, but moving fast across highways 170 and 462. I forded the instant river at 10-15 mph. People on I95 lost hours that day. I heard talk on the radio of up to 7" in some places due to Bonnie. It was raining like crazy!
Gro, blob yet? Looking really close. Not happy about the Florida trajectory though. Thanks to you, Baha, Pat and Skye for keeping us updated. You all afe the ones I respect on this blog the most. And Dr, Jeff of coursd.
Quoting 668. Ricki13th:


Lol it's just June and we are already seeing so much activity.
The Euro and GFS are showing some sort of BOC development and the GFS is showing one more storm coming out if the caribbean before the MJO moves out of the area.It seems like the Atlantic is waking out of its deep slumber that it has been in for the past few seasons.
Quoting 671. washingtonian115:

The Euro and GFS are showing some sort of BOC development and the GFS is showing one more storm coming out if the caribbean before the MJO moves out of the area.It seems like the Atlantic is waking out of its deep slumber that it has been in for the past few seasons.



Looks weak, but shear is supposed to be low in the BOC in mid-June. The BOC is another common June development region so we'll have to watch out and see if anything forms there.
The blob is now looking like a weights that you lift at the gym.
Another thing to note is the lack of activity in the Eastern Pacific. Typically, when the EPAC is less active, the Atlantic tends to be more active. Just something to keep track of in the coming weeks.
Quoting 673. ChiThom:




The traffic right at the border of GA/SC going southbound is already pretty bad, and it didn't help that US 17 (which you see the exit for) was also closed at that spot which could've been the detour.
Quoting 674. birdsrock2016:

The blob is now looking like a weights that you lift at the gym.

Aka Barbell Blob.
The story from Sunday in Jasper County historic flooding. I didn't see it posted here on WU, so here it is.
http://www.wtoc.com/story/32090817/severe-floodin g-shuts-down-portions-of-hwy-17-i-95-sb
if the disturbance comes in at high tide that could complicate matters
Quoting 675. wunderweatherman123:

Another thing to note is the lack of activity in the Eastern Pacific. Typically, when the EPAC is less active, the Atlantic tends to be more active. Just something to keep track of in the coming weeks.

The pattern is reversing as we head towards La Nina. Shear in the Pacific is rising, and shear in the Atlantic is weakening.
Quoting 670. CitikatzSouthFL:

Gro, blob yet? Looking really close. Not happy about the Florida trajectory though. Thanks to you, Baha, Pat and Skye for keeping us updated. You all afe the ones I respect on this blog the most. And Dr, Jeff of coursd.


No blob designation yet.
Quoting 678. ChiThom:

The story from Sunday in Jasper County historic flooding. I didn't see it posted here on WU, so here it is.
http://www.wtoc.com/story/32090817/severe-floodin g-shuts-down-portions-of-hwy-17-i-95-sb


I remember seeing Yemassee on the radar map and it was seeing 2" per hour rainfall rates for a while during Bonnie's landfall.
Just remember Grothar; one blob at a time...................................


Quoting 681. Grothar:



No blob designation yet.

Quoting 677. cRRKampen:


Aka Barbell Blob.


Me and cRRKampen have distinguished it as a barbell blob now, Grothar.
New maps are out 12
Upper anticyclone continues to develop over SW Caribbean and shear levels continue to fall across the SW Caribbean and that is spreading too
Low level vort continues to increase and deepen across the SW Caribbean near 12N/13N 80W lover convergence continues to increase as well as upper divergence also sfc pressures continue to fall in the SW Caribbean

Looking on satellite the large convective blob across the southern NW Caribbean area just S of Cayman has waned a bit but convection continues to increase over SW Caribbean near 12N 80W

Ok so will continue to wait and watch
Quoting 679. islander101010:

if the disturbance comes in at high tide that could complicate matters
the weather channel is a bit concerned about possible coastal flooding with the onshore flow from this storm
Quoting 667. washingtonian115:

The storm will not have time to take advantage of these waters.A blessing in disguise for sure.


I lost my link for that specific site Washi, do you have a link? Thanks in advance...
Quoting 663. BahaHurican:

If Bonnie was supposed to recurve and hit the Jersey shore, we'd be singing a different song ... lol ...

So much to watch this morning..... Bonnie... that snarky ULL... Twave in the WCAR.... even the trough that has been hanging around near the SE Bahamas.... very interesting pattern, and lots of fun for wx enthusiasts...

Have a great day!o
Quoting 665. BahaHurican:

Persistent trough east of the Bahamas



Also looking at sfc chart the very western west Atlantic high plotted has been weakening and shifting SE now expected to now dissipate on recent charts

Opens door for more poleward movements for SW Caribbean system also Bonnie dipping more ESE to S of due E
Quoting 683. weathermanwannabe:

Just remember Grothar; one blob at a time...................................



It'll be interesting to see if anything happens in the Gulf of Campeche. On one of the animations the clouds sliding off the Yucatan into the Gulf of Campeche showed a little spin, and that gob of moisture moving into the gulf from the West might find some energy waiting for it there. What effect would a spin-up there have on the development of the area of interest in the Western Carib?
Quoting 690. JrWeathermanFL:




Wow, Bonnie has an eye wall now. AMAZING!!!!!
Quoting 667. washingtonian115:

The storm will not have time to take advantage of these waters.A blessing in disguise for sure.


I wouldn't say that just yet wait till we see what effect it will have on system while its in Caribbean and depending on what happens and if not much by the it reaches Yucatan channel/SE GOM then you can call blessings
Quoting 690. JrWeathermanFL:



Looks like Bonnie will turn extratropical soon. Starting to develop a comma shape.
WRF is just giving the indication that this thing once the low level center is established will develop pretty quick. people in FL better get ready ready for this as this isn't going to be like some of the other June systems we've had over the years this appears it could ramp up fast.


Quoting 691. birdsrock2016:



Wow, Bonnie has an eye wall now. AMAZING!!!!!


No. just an illusion.

Quoting 693. HurricaneFan:


Looks like Bonnie will turn extratropical soon. Starting to develop a comma shape.


Yup.
WRF is just giving the indication that this thing once the low level center is established will develop pretty quick. People in FL better get ready ready for this as this isn't going to be like some of the other June systems we've had over the years. This appears it could ramp up fast.


Quoting 687. ILwthrfan:



I lost my link for that specific site Washi, do you have a link? Thanks in advance...
Yeah here it is.You're welcome!
Link
But, we can at least say that Bonnie has some really good banding now.
Quoting 689. CaneFreeCR:

It'll be interesting to see if anything happens in the Gulf of Campeche. On one of the animations the clouds sliding off the Yucatan into the Gulf of Campeche showed a little spin, and that gob of moisture moving into the gulf from the West might find some energy waiting for it there. What effect would a spin-up there have on the development of the area of interest in the Western Carib?

All of the current flow-convection in the Gulf, fueled in part by the Yucatan tutt cell, provides plenty of moisture for a system to form but it needs a low to pull it all in. However, in in the absence of a strong low or tropical storm, all that moisture is going to run into Florida early next week. A big tropical soaking regardless of whether it consolidates into a depression or tropical storm. Again, here are the current Tutt cells and other chart with no current vorticity at the surface near the Yucatan and a little off the coast of Texas.

Just a lot of baroclinic convection at the moment in/near the Gulf relative to the Yucatan Tutt and Texas Tutt.

ULL



SURFACE:


Quoting 696. StormTrackerScott:

WRF is just giving the indication that this thing once the low level center is established will develop pretty quick. people in FL better get ready ready for this as this isn't going to be like some of the other June systems we've had over the years this appears it could ramp up fast.





Probably a cat 3 into Tampa
Quoting 696. StormTrackerScott:

WRF is just giving the indication that this thing once the low level center is established will develop pretty quick. People in FL better get ready ready for this as this isn't going to be like some of the other June systems we've had over the years. This appears it could ramp up fast.




Hopefully not , Storm Tracker Scott. Some people don't even have hurricane insurance in Florida. But, you have to admit that he new structures being built could survive strong hurricanes
Warning: The first blogger who writes "hunker down" is going on my ignore list.

I do hope you're not going to carry on with this nonsense throughout the storm that is currently forming and heading for Tampa. We do have many people who come here that are concerned and making preparations that are of big concern to their homes and lives. They are looking for solid info from people who know their stuff and back it up. If you have something of value and substance to add to the blog, then please do. If it is just silly banter, then put a sock in the ole birdrock while a tropical storm is forecast to hit highly populated area. Let the guys and gals who are watching this thing, and may properly analyze it, do so. Carry on with the rest when there isn't a threat.

endrant



Quoting 691. birdsrock2016:



Wow, Bonnie has an eye wall now. AMAZING!!!!!
Quoting 694. StormTrackerScott:

WRF is just giving the indication that this thing once the low level center is established will develop pretty quick. people in FL better get ready ready for this as this isn't going to be like some of the other June systems we've had over the years this appears it could ramp up fast.



Agreed. Much like WunderkidCayman's mustache, it could rapidly grow and intensify.
Quoting 701. birdsrock2016:


Hopefully not , Storm Tracker Scott. Some people don't even have hurricane insurance in Florida. But, you have to admit that he new structures being built could survive strong hurricanes


As STS mentioned before, the path (and where the main winds are) will determine whether or not a significant storm surge occurs in Tampa Bay. Wind won't necessarily be the biggest issue with this storm. Rain and surge potentially could be.
"X" marks the 96 hr forecast, hunkering down.....



Good morning

The Caribbean is a mess today. Lots of rain but little organization at this time. A surface low appears to be in the making as buoy 42057 to the South of Grand Cayman has SW winds. This would place a broad center off the N coast of Honduras on the way to the Yucatan in keeping with current low level steering.

There is a vort max at the 850 mb level deep in the SW Caribbean which appears to be a different feature from the developing system. How this plays out remains to be seen but indications are that what the NHC is monitoring is indeed moving off to the WNW at this time.

Quoting 698. birdsrock2016:

But, we can at least say that Bonnie has some really good banding now.


only at the lower levels. All convection is being stripped off of Bonnie.

Quoting 702. Grothar:

Warning: The first blogger who writes "hunker down" is going on my ignore list.




Dang . . .
Quoting 706. daddyjames:



As STS mentioned before, the path (and where the main winds are) will determine whether or not a significant storm surge occurs in Tampa Bay. Wind won't necessarily be the biggest issue with this storm. Rain and surge potentially could be.


Yeah as noted on TWC earlier that is the main concern. They said during TS Barry back in 2007 a 5 foot storm surge came into Tampa and that was with a 60mph TS.
Again...This will be a rain event for Florida.I don't think their hurricane drought is going to end with this storm as the speed and upper level conditions are not working in its favor.
Quoting 706. daddyjames:



As STS mentioned before, the path (and where the main winds are) will determine whether or not a significant storm surge occurs in Tampa Bay. Wind won't necessarily be the biggest issue with this storm. Rain and surge potentially could be.


Its going to be a weak tropical storm with one side completely missing. Surge will not be a threat at all.
Levi has a new video up

www.tropicaltidbits.com
Quoting 710. daddyjames:



Dang . . .


Hunkerdown. LOL??
Quoting 700. VAbeachhurricanes:



Probably a cat 3 into Tampa


70 to 75mph system not out of the question here. Andrea back in 2013 came close to becoming a Hurricane and this might actually do it.
Quoting 702. Grothar:

Warning: The first blogger who writes "hunker down" is going on my ignore list.




"Hunker down" is second on my list. "Game On" is first.

Quoting 703. LurkingBystander:

I do hope you're not going to carry on with this nonsense throughout the storm that is currently forming and heading for Tampa. We do have many people who come here that are concerned and making preparations that are of big concern to their homes and lives. They are looking for solid info from people who know their stuff and back it up. If you have something of value and substance to add to the blog, then please do. If it is just silly banter, then put a sock in the ole birdrock while a tropical storm is forecast to hit highly populated area. Let the guys and gals who are watching this thing, and may properly analyze it, do so. Carry on with the rest when there isn't a threat.

endrant






may i repeat myself on a yearly basis.....while there is good information on here....and much can be learned....but if you come to the blog for solid info....rather than from the good doc......or mr henson...or NOAA...or your local weather service......well then...you get what you deserve
The models are still uncertain if it will be further South in the Fort Myers area or if it will be more towards the Tampa Bay area. I But, nevertheless, the whole state will probably be affected by this storm.
Quoting 713. VAbeachhurricanes:



Its going to be a weak tropical storm with one side completely missing. Surge will not be a threat at all.


LOL! Maybe you missed my forecast for Andrea back in 2013. I think you then as well went weak and got burned on the griddle with no cheese.
Quoting 713. VAbeachhurricanes:



Its going to be a weak tropical storm with one side completely missing. Surge will not be a threat at all.
If you don't think a weak tropical storm can create a surge issue in Tampa bay, then you obviously haven't seen the waterfront in Tampa lol... I'm no wishcaster and don't expect anything more than a weak tropical storm to be affecting Tampa this upcoming week, but ANY SW wind over 20 knots ALWAYS causes flooding in the bay. Cold fronts even cause flooding as they approach with a breezy long fetch wind ahead of them. That probably happens every other winter or so.
Surprised Bonnie wasn't upgraded to a TS given what recon found yesterday evening.

Looks like future Colin is starting to develop, slowly but surely. The convection is an illusion and until a low has developed the models won't be able to get a proper handle on it. Which is why models are showing different scenarios at the moment.

Interesting to see both the Euro and GFS latching onto Bay of Campeche development in about a week's time as well.

Don't let all the current activity fool you though - it's under the influence of a few things coming together. We could go a month or so until the next storm after things settle down.

But in saying that, the CFS is showing an early start to the CV season it seems by the end of this month:



So wouldn't be surprised if we have a TD or weak TS form in early July - like Chantal in 2013.
Quoting 579. BahaHurican:

Say, r u from Caymans too? If so, welcome... if not, where r u located?


Yes Baha ....live in Grand Cayman!
Long time lurker and find this blog perfect to get detailed information about the weather systems in the Caribbean !
I very rarely post.....unless it's to hit the "too much drama" button!!

This system is bringing urgently needed rain to a parched Island! There maybe a bit of wind but nothing to suggest we are boarding up and going to level Alpha 7 like some have posted!!

Have a blessed day. SF

Quoting 702. Grothar:

Warning: The first blogger who writes "hunker down" is going on my ignore list.


LOL LOL
Quoting 711. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah as noted on TWC earlier that is the main concern. They said during TS Barry back in 2007 a 5 foot storm surge came into Tampa and that was with a 60mph TS.


Not wishing any ill will, but if the projected path plays out, it should provide valuable data for the models ascertaining the risk to the Tampa Bay region. Guess that would be the only silver lining. (Those of you in the TB area, don't misconstrue my statement).
Quoting 713. VAbeachhurricanes:



Its going to be a weak tropical storm with one side completely missing. Surge will not be a threat at all.


That will depend upon how the winds interact with the geography. On the plus side, not a long time to build up much as it'll be moving pretty quick.
Quoting 722. FLWeatherFreak91:

If you don't think a weak tropical storm can create a surge issue in Tampa bay, then you obviously haven't seen the waterfront in Tampa lol... I'm no wishcaster and don't expect anything more than a weak tropical storm to be affecting Tampa this upcoming week, but ANY SW wind over 20 knots ALWAYS causes flooding in the bay. Cold fronts even cause flooding as they approach with a breezy long fetch wind ahead of them. That probably happens every other winter or so.


I'm sure that's the case, its like that up here in Norfolk too any little low pressure will cause street flooding. But as you said its nothing they aren't used to and won't really affect anyone that bad except for some minor street flooding.
Quoting 711. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah as noted on TWC earlier that is the main concern. They said during TS Barry back in 2007 a 5 foot storm surge came into Tampa and that was with a 60mph TS.

We didn't have 60mph TS winds here.. there was a storm surge of 3-4 feet in areas just north of downtown St pete and also a long bayshore in S Tampa... but it floods all the time those areas and will this time. Winds with Barry were around 25-35mph with higher gusts
Dr. Masters has the best impact prognosis (much more detailed than NHC and most regular media mets) in the business............... If a tropical storm is headed towards the US, and you want to know how you may be impacted, all you have to do is read his Post, and theoretically, ignore all of the comments by us............................................. :)
Quoting 717. StormTrackerScott:



70 to 75mph system not out of the question here. Andrea back in 2013 came close to becoming a Hurricane and this might actually do it.


Will have to see how it fares in contact with the Yucatan.
Quoting 721. StormTrackerScott:



LOL! Maybe you missed my forecast for Andrea back in 2013. I think you then as well went weak and got burned on the griddle with no cheese.



Can't say I remember blog happenings from 3 years ago.
if your concern for tampa bay is storm surge might you peruse this study by USF on a cat 2 and cat 4 hurricane possible surges Link


Quoting 723. Envoirment:

Surprised Bonnie wasn't upgraded to a TS given what recon found yesterday evening.

Looks like future Colin is starting to develop, slowly but surely. The convection is an illusion and until a low has developed the models won't be able to get a proper handle on it. Which is why models are showing different scenarios at the moment.

Interesting to see both the Euro and GFS latching onto Bay of Campeche development in about a week's time as well.

Don't let all the current activity fool you though - it's under the influence of a few things coming together. We could go a month or so until the next storm after things settle down.

But in saying that, the CFS is showing an early start to the CV season it seems by the end of this month:



So wouldn't be surprised if we have a TD or weak TS form in early July - like Chantal in 2013.

Due to an expected -NAO in late June we could see some MDR warming as well...will be interesting to see if anything forms out there early.

Quoting 702. Grothar:

Warning: The first blogger who writes "hunker down" is going on my ignore list.


LOL, I love it!!
I beg to differ. I get my solid info from a variety of valid sources, this being one. Never meant to suggest that I throw out the opinions you mention in favor of what is here. A large number of people come here for more detailed charts, projections and analysis in addition to what is shown on a 5 minute newcast or a paragraph of text. WU and the bloggers have earned credibility as a source many pay attention to and use for planning in time of threat especially.

Your statement is fair enough. Point taken. Now taking my own advice and putting a sock in it.


Quoting 719. ricderr:



may i repeat myself on a yearly basis.....while there is good information on here....and much can be learned....but if you come to the blog for solid info....rather than from the good doc......or mr henson...or NOAA...or your local weather service......well then...you get what you deserve
12Z WRF is @ 997 @ 60hrs. The Nam is @ 1001mb @ 84 hrs, Decent agreement that a TS will be designated late Sunday/Sunday Night.

With eventual Colin.. and it's a "If" still as of now.. we are expecting in the Tampa Baya area a squall line to come in first in the afternoon-evening on Monday with some isolated tornados, especially south in Sarasota-Ft Myers.... Colin will probably be around 50-60mph (as of now projecting and it will probably change) but the affects -33% for landwind will mean 30-40 mph winds with higher gusts in squalls near and east of the LLC. Rainfall expecting 4-7 inches depending on where it comes ashore....areas north of the LLC will get 1"-2". Tornado threat will be along and south-east of the LLC and also (as mentioned above) from the initial squall line. Overall as of right now, we don't have a system, we don't have a path... we don't know forsure if this will develop more than a subtropical low due to the interaction in the GOM with the upper low..but it should for sure stear this towards FL from Ft Myers-Cedar Key. So as of now... wait, watch and see.. No Hype of this being a hurricane or this right now developing before Saturday night into Sunday morning. The sooner this does develop..the more N it will turn near Cozumel then NE towards Ft Myers.. if it doesn't develop until it gets north of the Yucitan.. it will be more W and move towards Tampa-Cedar Key.
740. 7544
morning all wait watch and see congrads on over 700 post for not even a invest yet keep on keeping on good luck to u
The huge limiting factors with this system will be its short time over open water.

If the low can stay off the Yucatan and get a little more time over open water, I could see a pretty decent Tropical Storm. But if the low spends a day over the Yucatan, I don't know if it will have the time to get very strong.

Quoting 726. daddyjames:



Not wishing any ill will, but if the projected path plays out, it should provide valuable data for the models ascertaining the risk to the Tampa Bay region. Guess that would be the only silver lining. (Those of you in the TB area, don't misconstrue my statement).


We know the governing equations and the sea floor topography and don't need a strike to validate the models so I'd really rather never see this happen.
Quoting 718. GeoffreyWPB:



"Hunker down" is second on my list. "Game On" is first.




There are 10yo kids in FL who don't know what a hurricane is. Same here in TX, we had millions of 6-7 yos who were befuddled by this stuff falling from the sky when it started raining again a year ago. Teens here are getting washed away because we didn't have to say Turn Around, Don't Drown for 5 years while they were starting to drive.
Quoting 739. scottsvb:

With eventual Colin.. and it's a "If" still as of now.. we are expecting in the Tampa Baya area a squall line to come in first in the afternoon-evening on Monday with some isolated tornados, especially south in Sarasota-Ft Myers.... Colin will probably be around 50-60mph (as of now projecting and it will probably change) but the affects -33% for landwind will mean 30-40 mph winds with higher gusts in squalls near and east of the LLC. Rainfall expecting 4-7 inches depending on where it comes ashore....areas north of the LLC will get 1"-2". Tornado threat will be along and south-east of the LLC and also (as mentioned above) from the initial squall line. Overall as of right now, we don't have a system, we don't have a path... we don't know forsure if this will develop more than a subtropical low due to the interaction in the GOM with the upper low..but it should for sure stear this towards FL from Ft Myers-Cedar Key. So as of now... wait, watch and see.. No Hype of this being a hurricane or this right now developing before Saturday night into Sunday morning. The sooner this does develop..the more N it will turn near Cozumel then NE towards Ft Myers.. if it doesn't develop until it gets north of the Yucitan.. it will be more W and move towards Tampa-Cedar Key.


Good assessment. As a resident of Hillsborough County, my biggest concern of your scenario is that Monday starts exam week. The last thing we need is a day or two of canceled school, which will for sure happen under a tropical storm warning. I'm hoping for a disorganized low to bring us some needed rain. The last week of school and all the graduations don't need any disruptions.
So Colin comes across according to the CMC.



Then Danielle

Quoting 742. georgevandenberghe:



We know the governing equations and the sea floor topography and don't need a strike to validate the models so I'd really rather never see this happen.


Well if it is going to happen - better a weak system moving quickly than a stronger system moving slowly.
Quoting 721. StormTrackerScott:



LOL! Maybe you missed my forecast for Andrea back in 2013. I think you then as well went weak and got burned on the griddle with no cheese.
Hi Scott. I think we all remember that forecast. It was EPIC!!! Nice to have you back on here, it seems like you were away for awhile.
Quoting 745. JrWeathermanFL:

So Colin comes across according to the CMC.



Then Danielle




Looks like it will be more towards fort Myer's area .
Quoting 703. LurkingBystander:

I do hope you're not going to carry on with this nonsense throughout the storm that is currently forming and heading for Tampa. We do have many people who come here that are concerned and making preparations that are of big concern to their homes and lives. They are looking for solid info from people who know their stuff and back it up. If you have something of value and substance to add to the blog, then please do. If it is just silly banter, then put a sock in the ole birdrock while a tropical storm is forecast to hit highly populated area. Let the guys and gals who are watching this thing, and may properly analyze it, do so. Carry on with the rest when there isn't a threat.

endrant






I'll add to this. You need to go to the NWS for life saving hurricane coverage. They'll have the clearest most coherent message. There is too much speculation on this or any blog covering hurricanes.. it's not the fault of the bloggers or mods but there are different opinions of varying quality (and no mine isn't among the best) and it can be hard to get the clear message you MUST get to protect yourself and family.
Quoting 738. StormTrackerScott:

12Z WRF is @ 997 @ 60hrs. The Nam is @ 1001mb @ 84 hrs, Decent agreement that a TS will be designated late Sunday/Sunday Night.




The NAM only takes a short trip (maybe 9 hours) across the N.E. tip of the Yucatan.
If the low could completely stay off the Yucatan we would most likely see a pretty decent system.
The models are hinting at anoter disturbance developing after future Collin.
752. 7544
Quoting 745. JrWeathermanFL:

So Colin comes across according to the CMC.



Then Danielle




double trouble that will be a lot of rain thanks
Quoting 744. DoubleBranchGuy:



Good assessment. As a resident of Hillsborough County, my biggest concern of your scenario is that Monday starts exam week. The last thing we need is a day or two of canceled school, which will for sure happen under a tropical storm warning. I'm hoping for a disorganized low to bring us some needed rain. The last week of school and all the graduations don't need any disruptions.


exam week? Schools were out in HIllsborough as of last Friday and today in Pasco...not sure about pinellas
Quoting 751. birdsrock2016:

The models are hinting at anoter disturbance developing after future Collin.


lets focus on the 1s that have a better than 20% chance of happening..and that's with the disturbance off Honduras and Nicaragua :)
This isn't coming in weak guys. This not your typical June system to impact FL like other years. This system looks like it will barely clip the Yucatan it appears as system tries to build now.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 22m22 minutes ago

NW Caribbean system already has some shape- looks like an interesting weekend for the Gulf of Mexico and Florida!
Thanking all in advance for info...I live in Daytona on the intercoastal (Halifax river). Long time lurker since Charley, Francis etc 2004.
7 Day Precip Forecast... Nice to see SoTX getting a break from the firehose!
Quoting 755. StormTrackerScott:

This isn't coming in weak guys. This not your typical June system to impact FL like other years. This system looks like it will barely clip the Yucatan it appears as system tries to build now.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 22m22 minutes ago

NW Caribbean system already has some shape- looks like an interesting weekend for the Gulf of Mexico and Florida!



Scott....calm down some.. make accurate forecasts..none of the models show this lower than 998mbs and most have it 1002-1004. We have time, it's not even developed.. no need to hype this.. you've been doing this too long to make predictions without model backup and dynamic backups. Lets wait till the Euro and GFS has a stronger system.
Quoting 755. StormTrackerScott:

This isn't coming in weak guys. This not your typical June system to impact FL like other years. This system looks like it will barely clip the Yucatan it appears as system tries to build now.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 22m22 minutes ago

NW Caribbean system already has some shape- looks like an interesting weekend for the Gulf of Mexico and Florida!

Doom,

Doom everywhere'...
Quoting 753. scottsvb:



exam week? Schools were out in HIllsborough as of last Friday and today in Pasco...not sure about pinellas


I have a daughter graduating next week, and a daughter taking middle school exams next week. Hillsborough public schools last day is Fri June 10th. Perhaps some private schools are done? But in Public, next week is big. Check the calendar.
Regardless of what happens, once (if) a closed circulation forms, the NHC is going to have to make really quick decisions regarding what type of warnings are necessary. All in all, if you are in the Tampa Bay area, you may want to take advantage of the weekend and make precautionary preparations as there won't necessary be a long advance warning for this system.
Quoting 722. FLWeatherFreak91:

If you don't think a weak tropical storm can create a surge issue in Tampa bay, then you obviously haven't seen the waterfront in Tampa lol... I'm no wishcaster and don't expect anything more than a weak tropical storm to be affecting Tampa this upcoming week, but ANY SW wind over 20 knots ALWAYS causes flooding in the bay. Cold fronts even cause flooding as they approach with a breezy long fetch wind ahead of them. That probably happens every other winter or so.



let me help again...instead of speculation for those that would like a better grasp on storm surge projections for tampa....go here
One should have done all ones prep b4 June 1.

That is a good way to begin any Season.

Well at least we got some agreement that another storm could form after next week.Both the Euro and GFS take it west while the CMC takes it east.First we have to deal with the mess in the Caribbean.
Quoting 761. DoubleBranchGuy:



I have a daughter graduating next week, and a daughter taking middle school exams next week. Hillsborough public schools last day is Fri June 10th. Perhaps some private schools are done? But in Public, next week is big. Check the calendar.


King graduation was last night... I went to the Cheesecake in Brandon and there were grad hats and the server said it was King and it's been graduation all week and will be next week. I hope them servers get 20% tips!! lol
768. MahFL
BEFORE the Tropical system comes through JAX NWS says we will have torrential rains though Sunday, that plus the tropical system won't be good for parts of NE FL that flood.
Could this storm be like Andrea in 2013?? If it remains over open water it may develop quickly and be strong.
Quoting 765. Patrap:

One should have done all ones prep b4 June 1.

That is a good way to begin any Season.



Already boarded up the basement windows, got my sump pump in the attic and ordered an extra case of Vienna Sausage! I am ready to hunker down, GAME ON!

Quoting 763. ricderr:

let me help again...instead of speculation for those that would like a better grasp on storm surge projections for tampa....go here


WU has a nice resource HERE of the potential effects.

For Example:






If you live in Florida you should bookmark this page: Florida DEM Disaster Preparedness Maps

It provides many maps detailing evacuation zones and storm surge maps for the state of Florida.

It does have this caveat: These county-wide evacuation route and zone maps are based upon the most up-to-date regional evacuation studies and are intended for general reference. Please note that within many counties, there may not be designated evacuation zones. DURING AN EMERGENCY, YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM SHOULD ALWAYS BE CONSULTED REGARDING EVACUATION ORDERS.
It looks from the vis loops that the broad area from the lower Gulf to the areas off of Honduras are going to consolidate at some point near the Yucatan; that will be a very large area of tropical moisture to contend with downstream moving towards Florida with lots of rain coverage across a large section of the State regardless of potential wind speeds:

My Bonnie Lies over the Ocean'

Hurricane Preparation 2016

It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.






How to Prepare for a Hurricane



Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues



Your Evacuation Plan

Disaster Supplies Kit




Pet Care Disaster Preparedness

NOAA Alert Weather Radio's


"Think outside the Cone"
hurricanebuddy.com





History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster.
Happy Friday everyone!
Gotta head out of the office and will miss a ton of great comments.. SOOOOOOOOOOOOO HAPPYYYYYYYY that we are off of the 'topics which shall not be named'!
Peace
We should see a INVEST, GREEN BALL Atlantic any time now.
Quoting 771. daddyjames:



WU has a nice resource HERE of the potential effects.

For Example:






If you live in Florida you should bookmark this page: Florida DEM Disaster Preparedness Maps

It provides many maps detailing evacuation zones and storm surge maps for the state of Florida.

It does have this caveat: These county-wide evacuation route and zone maps are based upon the most up-to-date regional evacuation studies and are intended for general reference. Please note that within many counties, there may not be designated evacuation zones. DURING AN EMERGENCY, YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM SHOULD ALWAYS BE CONSULTED REGARDING EVACUATION ORDERS.



another nice find
Quoting 724. spanishfisherman:



Yes Baha ....live in Grand Cayman!
Long time lurker and find this blog perfect to get detailed information about the weather systems in the Caribbean !
I very rarely post.....unless it's to hit the "too much drama" button!!

This system is bringing urgently needed rain to a parched Island! There maybe a bit of wind but nothing to suggest we are boarding up and going to level Alpha 7 like some have posted!!

Have a blessed day. SF


I am in East End. Definitely need the rain and the breeze is pretty nice too.
And the NHC is issuing storm surge maps, once a warning has been issued, starting this year.

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

In an effort to improve overall awareness and understanding of the storm surge flooding threat, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will be issuing a Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map effective 2016 for certain tropical cyclones that affect the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States.
well...let's take a look at those models and see what they have to say........but first...a word from my lawyer....



Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields
This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their
forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S.,
please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
781. 7544
Quoting 776. Patrap:

We should see a INVEST, GREEN BALL Atlantic any time now.
Quoting 776. Patrap:

We should see a INVEST, GREEN BALL Atlantic any time now.


yeap yeap I agree
12Z NAM at 84 hours
Winds 36 knots (41 mph) at 10m at this stage. The system should be heavily weighted on its right side which should put a lot of rain over most of Florida.
Good morning all,

Looks like some tropical cyclogenesis will be taking place in the Gulf in about 3 days. GFS has a weak tropical cyclone developing in about 60 hours on the 12z run. Looks like south Florida will get some rain out of it, but the brunt will be restrained to the west coast of central/northern Florida. Shaping up to be a Fay-like system, intensity wise, if the models hold true.
cmc has this puppy making landfall north of tampa with pressure as low as 992 which could translate about 80 kts


I urge all those in the expected impact area's to prepare this weekend for a Tropical Storm.

If it develops and rolls in you will be ready and if it shoo-shoo's consider the drill a learning experience.

Every Storm brings its own brand of effects.


5


HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS TIPS



Hurricane hazards come in many forms: storm surge, high winds, tornadoes, and flooding. This means it is important for your family to have a plan that includes all of these hazards. Look carefully at the safety actions associated with each type of hurricane hazard and prepare your family disaster plan accordingly. But remember this is only a guide. The first and most important thing anyone should do when facing a hurricane threat is to use common sense.



You should be able to answer the following questions before a hurricane threatens:

*
What are the Hurricane Hazards?
*
What does it mean to you?
*
What actions should you take to be prepared?

Hurricanes and Your Health and Safety


* The great majority of injuries during a hurricane are cuts caused by flying glass or other debris. Other injuries include puncture wounds resulting from exposed nails, metal, or glass, and bone fractures.
* State and local health departments may issue health advisories or recommendations particular to local conditions. If in doubt, contact your local or state health department.
* Make sure to include all essential medications -- both prescription and over the counter -- in your family's emergency disaster kit.


* Hurricanes, especially if accompanied by a tidal surge or flooding, can contaminate the public water supply. Drinking contaminated water may cause illness. You cannot assume that the water in the hurricane-affected area is safe to drink.
* In the area hit by a hurricane, water treatment plants may not be operating; even if they are, storm damage and flooding can contaminate water lines. Listen for public announcements about the safety of the municipal water supply.
* If your well has been flooded, it needs to be tested and disinfected after the storm passes and the floodwaters recede. Questions about testing should be directed to your local or state health department.

Water Safety

* Use bottled water that has not been exposed to flood waters if it is available.
* If you don't have bottled water, you should boil water to make it safe. Boiling water will kill most types of disease-causing organisms that may be present. If the water is cloudy, filter it through clean cloths or allow it to settle, and draw off the clear water for boiling. Boil the water for one minute, let it cool, and store it in clean containers with covers.
* If you can't boil water, you can disinfect it using household bleach. Bleach will kill some, but not all, types of disease-causing organisms that may be in the water. If the water is cloudy, filter it through clean cloths or allow it to settle, and draw off the clear water for disinfection. Add 1/8 teaspoon (or 8 drops) of regular, unscented, liquid household bleach for each gallon of water, stir it well and let it stand for 30 minutes before you use it. Store disinfected water in clean containers with covers.
* If you have a well that has been flooded, the water should be tested and disinfected after flood waters recede. If you suspect that your well may be contaminated, contact your local or state health department or agriculture extension agent for specific advice.

Food Safety



* Do not eat any food that may have come into contact with flood water.

* Discard any food that is not in a waterproof container if there is any chance that it has come into contact with flood water. Food containers that are not waterproof include those with screw-caps, snap lids, pull tops, and crimped caps. Also, discard cardboard juice/milk/baby formula boxes and home canned foods if they have come in contact with flood water, because they cannot be effectively cleaned and sanitized.

* Inspect canned foods and discard any food in damaged cans. Can damage is shown by swelling; leakage; punctures; holes; fractures; extensive deep rusting; or crushing/denting severe enough to prevent normal stacking or opening with a manual, wheel-type can opener.

* Undamaged, commercially prepared foods in all-metal cans and retort pouches (for example, flexible, shelf-stable juice or seafood pouches) can be saved if you do the following:
o Remove the labels, if they are the removable kind, since they can harbor dirt and bacteria.
o Thoroughly wash the cans or retort pouches with soap and water, using hot water if it is available.
o Brush or wipe away any dirt or silt.
o Rinse the cans or retort pouches with water that is safe for drinking, if available, since dirt or residual soap will reduce the effectiveness of chlorine sanitation.
o Then, sanitize them by immersion in one of the two following ways:
+ place in water and allow the water to come to a boil and continue boiling for 2 minutes, or
+ place in a freshly-made solution consisting of 1 tablespoon of unscented liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available) for 15 minutes.

* Air dry cans or retort pouches for a minimum of 1 hour before opening or storing.

* If the labels were removable, then re-label your cans or retort pouches, including the expiration date (if available), with a marker.

* Food in reconditioned cans or retort pouches should be used as soon as possible, thereafter.

* Any concentrated baby formula in reconditioned, all-metal containers must be diluted with clean, drinking water.

* Thoroughly wash metal pans, ceramic dishes, and utensils (including can openers) with soap and water, using hot water if available. Rinse, and then sanitize them by boiling in clean water or immersing them for 15 minutes in a solution of 1 tablespoon of unscented, liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available).

* Thoroughly wash countertops with soap and water, using hot water if available. Rinse, and then sanitize by applying a solution of 1 tablespoon of unscented, liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available). Allow to air dry.

Frozen and Refrigerated Foods

* If you will be without power for a long period:
o ask friends to store your frozen foods in their freezers if they have electricity;
o see if freezer space is available in a store, church, school, or commercial freezer that has electrical service; or
o use dry ice, if available. Twenty-five pounds of dry ice will keep a ten-cubic-foot freezer below freezing for 3-4 days. Use care when handling dry ice, and wear dry, heavy gloves to avoid injury.
* Your refrigerator will keep foods cool for about four hours without power if it is unopened. Add block or dry ice to your refrigerator if the electricity will be off longer than four hours.
* Thawed food can usually be eaten if it is still "refrigerator cold," or re-frozen if it still contains ice crystals.
* To be safe, remember, "When in doubt, throw it out." Discard any food that has been at room temperature for two hours or more, and any food that has an unusual odor, color, or texture.


Sanitation and Hygiene



It is critical for you to remember to practice basic hygiene during the emergency period. Always wash your hands with soap and water that has been boiled or disinfected:

* before preparing or eating
* after toilet use
* after participating in cleanup activities; and
* after handling articles contaminated with floodwater or sewage.

If there is flooding along with a hurricane, the waters may contain fecal material from overflowing sewage systems and agricultural and industrial waste. Although skin contact with floodwater does not, by itself, pose a serious health risk, there is risk of disease from eating or drinking anything contaminated with floodwater.

If you have any open cuts or sores that will be exposed to floodwater, keep them as clean as possible by washing them with soap and applying an antibiotic ointment to discourage infection. If a wound develops redness, swelling, or drainage, seek immediate medical attention.

Do not allow children to play in floodwater areas. Wash children's hands frequently (always before meals), and do not allow children to play with floodwater-contaminated toys that have not been disinfected. You can disinfect toys using a solution of one cup of bleach in five gallons of water.

Immunizations



Outbreaks of communicable diseases after hurricanes are unusual. However, the rates of diseases that were present before a hurricane may increase because of a lack of sanitation or overcrowding in shelters. Increases in infectious diseases that were not present before the hurricane are not a problem, so mass vaccination programs are unnecessary.

If you have wounds, you should be evaluated for a tetanus immunization, just as you would at any other time of injury. If you receive a puncture wound or a wound contaminated with feces, soil, or saliva, have a doctor or health department determine whether a tetanus booster is necessary based on individual records.

Specific recommendations for vaccinations should be made on a case-by-case basis, or as determined by local and state health departments.

Mosquitoes



Rain and flooding in a hurricane area may lead to an increase in mosquitoes. Mosquitoes are most active at sunrise and sunset. In most cases, the mosquitoes will be pests but will not carry communicable diseases. It is unlikely that diseases which were not present in the area prior to the hurricane would be of concern. Local, state, and federal public health authorities will be actively working to control the spread of any mosquito-borne diseases.

To protect yourself from mosquitoes, use screens on dwellings, and wear clothes with long sleeves and long pants. Insect repellents that contain DEET are very effective. Be sure to read all instructions before using DEET. Care must be taken when using DEET on small children. Products containing DEET are available from stores and through local and state health departments.

To control mosquito populations, drain all standing water left in open containers outside your home.

Mental Health



The days and weeks after a hurricane are going to be rough. In addition to your physical health, you need to take some time to consider your mental health as well. Remember that some sleeplessness, anxiety, anger, hyperactivity, mild depression, or lethargy are normal, and may go away with time. If you feel any of these symptoms acutely, seek counseling. Remember that children need extra care and attention before, during, and after the storm. Be sure to locate a favorite toy or game for your child before the storm arrives to help maintain his/her sense of security. Your state and local health departments will help you find the local resources, including hospitals or health care providers, that you may need.

Seeking Assistance after a Hurricane



SEEKING DISASTER ASSISTANCE: Throughout the recovery period, it is important to monitor local radio or television reports and other media sources for information about where to get emergency housing, food, first aid, clothing, and financial assistance. The following section provides general information about the kinds of assistance that may be available.

DIRECT ASSISTANCE: Direct assistance to individuals and families may come from any number of organizations, including: the American Red Cross, the Salvation Army, and other volunteer organizations. These organizations provide food, shelter, supplies and assist in clean-up efforts.

THE FEDERAL ROLE: In the most severe disasters, the federal government is also called in to help individuals and families with temporary housing, counseling (for post-disaster trauma), low-interest loans and grants, and other assistance. The federal government also has programs that help small businesses and farmers.

Most federal assistance becomes available when the President of the United States declares a Major Disaster for the affected area at the request of a state governor. FEMA will provide information through the media and community outreach about federal assistance and how to apply.

Quoting 768. MahFL:

BEFORE the Tropical system comes through JAX NWS says we will have torrential rains though Sunday, that plus the tropical system won't be good for parts of NE FL that flood.

good point. we're in the same boat in ECFL though I just checked the weekend forecast again and it looks like they've backed off a bit on the rain, forecasting scattered thunderstorms only.
The ones who are at this moment probably in disaster planning meetings are the folks in west coast cities, particularly Tampa Bay, as has been mentioned numerous times - no hype -
ecmwf operational also puts this north of tampa but at a higher pressure on about 1000....which would probably put it at a tropical storm only


Quoting 779. daddyjames:

And the NHC is issuing storm surge maps, once a warning has been issued, starting this year.

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

In an effort to improve overall awareness and understanding of the storm surge flooding threat, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will be issuing a Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map effective 2016 for certain tropical cyclones that affect the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States.


May main concern here in Orlando is the lack of storms in recent years has led to an abundance of overgrowth. We have been losing a lot of trees and limbs lately in non severe thunderstorms, so the idea of a sustained 40+ mph tropical system moving through the Central Florida / Orlando area, coupled with heavy rain, may cause a bit more damage than planned for. Of course, this isn't to take away from the dangers of storm surge and flooding on the coast, but rather to think of what even weak systems can do given a long period of return for other areas we do not traditionally think of as prone to a lot of damage. I'm fully prepared for some downed trees and power losses if the models hold true.
Devastating...



Already transitioning to non tropical
we got a little bit of rain but not much out of this.......ho hum
Quoting 772. weathermanwannabe:

It looks from the vis loops that the broad area from the lower Gulf to the areas off of Honduras are going to consolidate at some point near the Yucatan; that will be a very large area of tropical moisture to contend with downstream moving towards Florida with lots of rain coverage across a large section of the State regardless of potential wind speeds:


the GFS shows this no love...no love whatsoever...




Quoting 784. ricderr:

cmc has this puppy making landfall north of tampa with pressure as low as 992 which could translate about 80 kts





992 is about 60kts.. 80kts or 90-95 mph would be about 978mbs but it's the CMC... it's not taking into affect the drier air coming down from the southern states and the wind shear @25kts. Colin may or may not get more organized than what the GFS says.. just depends on how organized it gets sunday and how fast it moves NE in tandam with the shear to get under the CDO.
now the navgem does target this at tampa and at a tropical storm


As always thanks Patrap for info... there were a few things I forgot in hurricane preps.
797. IKE
GFS 12Z looks like a broad area of low pressure crossing Florida.
Interesting CMC.

Quoting 789. VAbeachhurricanes:

Devastating...



Already transitioning to non tropical


I'll help you with that . . .
Quoting 795. centrfla:

As always thanks Patrap for info... there were a few things I forgot in hurricane preps.


Yer very welcome and feel free to share the link on FB with your Friends and Family.

Take care.
XXL/INV/XX
804. MahFL
Quoting 788. Naga5000:



... We have been losing a lot of trees and limbs lately in non severe thunderstorms...


I had a 6 feet long 2.25 ( measured with a rule ) inch thick branch come down last night, and it was not even windy. Where I live we have trees with many rotten branches who have not seen a cyclone in decades.
non tropical model nam hr 72 12z run

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
hr 72 12z gfs

I think the odds of this storm becoming a high-end tropical storm/Minimal Hurricane is decent.

This morning the Visible Satellite Imagery illustrates a broad area of turning North or Northeast of Honduras. Pressures in that area have dipped below 1012. Also seeing some lower level clouds spinning towards the south on the western side of this area of low pressure.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis. html

I'm also encouraged by the lowering shear around this area of low pressure. This area of lowering shear seems to be carving out just ahead of this area of LP.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.ph p?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

In terms of climatology, there have been quite a few June storms that have taken this path and slowly developed into 65-75 MPH cyclones despite similar wind shear conditions. Generally, we see convection piling up on the eastern side of these systems. I think the above average SSTs will play a role in this storm strengthening before landfall. However, this storm will probably take on a hybrid, coma-shape look as it is directed by the front.
The area of showers and thunderstorms are slowing organizing in the Caribbean Sea. Conditions will become more favorable in the next few days for development of a tropical depression or storm. The next name on the list is Colin. I am currently giving this system a 20% in the next 48 hours and a 70% chance in the next 5 days. Interests in the western Caribbean and Florida will have to monitor the situation. Regardless of development, heavy rain and wind is still a hazard to watch. I'll have another update at 4PM CDT.
hello...huge moisture

Quoting 743. redwagon:



There are 10yo kids in FL who don't know what a hurricane is. Same here in TX, we had millions of 6-7 yos who were befuddled by this stuff falling from the sky when it started raining again a year ago. Teens here are getting washed away because we didn't have to say Turn Around, Don't Drown for 5 years while they were starting to drive.


I remember being in middle school in 2004/5. We tracked every storm at the beginning of class and learned about them. Doubt they do that anymore.
Conditions are likely going to be as conducive in the W. Caribbean and Gulf as we've seen in a long time. This is likely only the first of a handful of storms we'll see through mid July. Shear has been stuck in place howling for years and now we're seeing a pattern switch. A very fast switch. Looking more like a slow CV season and possibly a hyper active home grown early season. Florida will have to really be fortunate to not get hit by multiple hurricanes this season.
Quoting 782. Sfloridacat5:

12Z NAM at 84 hours
Winds 36 knots (41 mph) at 10m at this stage. The system should be heavily weighted on its right side which should put a lot of rain over most of Florida.

That is what we have to be concern here in South FLorida,not the point where the center of circulation will hit land,this system because the winds coming from the West will be as you said a heavily Weighted on it's right side (lopsided),so basically it doesn't matter where it lands in the West Coast of Florida, here in Miami we should receive a lot of rain and stormy conditions in my humble opinion.
Quoting 745. JrWeathermanFL:

So Colin comes across according to the CMC.



Then Danielle




For the CMC: The second storm "Danielle" shown here and the one indicated as potentially originating off the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula shown here:

Quoting 798. Grothar:

Interesting CMC.




Originates from energy from the EPAC "storm" shown here:



We'll see what happens . . .
Quoting 813. DeepSeaRising:

Conditions are likely going to be as conducive in the W. Caribbean and Gulf as we've seen in a long time. This is likely only the first of a handful of storms we'll see through mid July. Shear has been stuck in place howling for years and now we're seeing a pattern switch. A very fast switch. Looking more like a slow CV season and possibly a hyper active home grown early season. Florida will have to really be fortunate to not get hit by multiple hurricanes this season.

Where do you live DeepSea?
Quoting 724. spanishfisherman:



Yes Baha ....live in Grand Cayman!
Long time lurker and find this blog perfect to get detailed information about the weather systems in the Caribbean !
I very rarely post.....unless it's to hit the "too much drama" button!!

This system is bringing urgently needed rain to a parched Island! There maybe a bit of wind but nothing to suggest we are boarding up and going to level Alpha 7 like some have posted!!

Have a blessed day. SF




Where you at
I'm gonna call it invest 93L very very soon
New TWO % bumped up we will likely see invest 93L
Also the circle was brought down Southwards

Only thing left is to bump % up more and shift circle east

I am not buying the Yucatan or gulf of Honduras thing at this time
821. vis0

Quoting 423. gator23:


She says:
"Egypti and Albopictus are the two major vectors for Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue and Yellow Fever in the US. They are both very aggressive biters but Albopictus tends to push Egypti out especially in colder areas which is somewhat beneficial since Egypti is a better vector of those pathogens than Albopictus" In regards to potential Colin "since mosquitoes tend to be flood water species a massive amount of rain will indeed lead to more mosquitoes about 2 weeks after the tropical storm has ended. That said, we have not been in a drought so it wont increase that drastically. It will not increase Zika as the virus inst circulating locally yet." In regards to how to protect yourself "Use anything with DEET, Picaridin if you want to go a more 'natural route' us lemon eucalyptus but that wont last as long."
get bats
From an earlier post for 93L

AL, 93, 2016060412, , BEST, 0, 166N, 866W, 30, 1008, LO

AL 93 = our invest: 93L
166N & 866W = are the coordinates of the center which is at 16.6N and 86.6W
30 = just means 30 kts winds or 35 mph,
1008 = the pressure of the system 1008mb,
LO = indicates there is a surface low in that area. it was DB before which means it was just a Distrubance (with no low pressure area).
Quoting 804. MahFL:



I had a 6 feet long 2.25 ( measured with a rule ) inch thick branch come down last night, and it was not even windy. Where I live we have trees with many rotten branches who have not seen a cyclone in decades.


Where is that?
There is a spin near the NE tip of the Yucatan. Has anybody else seen that?