WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tropical Storms, Tornadoes, a Cat 5 Typhoon, and a Blizzard, Oh My!

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 3:59 PM GMT on May 10, 2015

Meteorological Mother's Day Madness is at hand. The strongest tropical storm ever to make landfall in the U.S. so early in the year hit South Carolina this morning, at the same time as a Category 5 super typhoon hit the Philippines, a raging blizzard pounded South Dakota, and the U.S. Plains cleaned up from an onslaught of 45 tornadoes the previous day. Let's start today's post with Tropical Storm Ana, which made landfall at 6:15 am EDT on the coast of South Carolina just south of the North Carolina border. At landfall, Ana had top winds of 45 mph, making the the strongest tropical storm ever recorded to hit the U.S. so early in the year. Ana brought peak winds of 47 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 9:50 pm EDT Saturday to the Frying Pan Shoals Buoy 41013, located off the coast of North Carolina. North Myrtle Beach, SC recorded a gust of 49.5 mph at 12:53 am this morning. Ana is expected to bring 2 - 4" of rain to portions of coastal South Carolina and North Carolina though Monday.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Ana taken near 3 pm EDT May 9, 2015. At the time, Ana had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA Worldview.


Figure 2. Radar image of Ana taken at 6:15 am EDT Sunday May 10, 2015, from Wilmington, North Carolina. Ana was making landfall near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

How unusual is a May landfall?
Named storms that make landfall in the U.S. before the June 1 start of hurricane season are rare; between 1900 - 2014 there were only nine such landfalls, an average of one every thirteen years. The only U.S. landfall on record that occurred earlier than Ana's was on February 3, 1952, when the Groundhog Day tropical storm, packing winds of 40 mph, struck near Cape Sable, Florida. Eight U.S. landfalls have occurred in May, with Beryl the strongest of the group in recent years, packing 65-mph winds during its landfall near Jacksonville Beach, Florida, on May 28, 2012 (note, though, that a 2013 paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society documented a hurricane landfall on the Florida Panhandle on May 28, 1863, with estimated peak winds of 105 mph.)

Here is the full list of peak winds observed on U.S. shores from named systems before June 1 since 1900, including both landfalling and offshore systems, as compiled by tropical meteorologist Andrew Hagen (StormGeo) using the HURDAT database. These are ranked in descending order of observed winds and listed with the state(s) where the winds were recorded.

5/28/2012 – 55 kt – FL (Beryl)
5/29/1908 – 55 kt – NC
5/27/1972 – 50 kt – GA (Alpha)
5/10/2015 – 40 kt – NC (Ana)
5/23/1976 – 40 kt – FL/GA (unnamed)
5/30/1959 – 40 kt – LA (Arlene)
2/3/1952 – 35 kt – FL (Groundhog Day Storm)
5/10/2007 – 35 kt – GA (Andrea)
5/14/1916 – 35 kt – FL
5/17/1951 – 35 kt – FL (Able)


Figure 3. Super Typhoon Noul as seen by the new Japanese Himawari-8 satellite at 00:50 UTC May 10, 2015. At the time, Noul was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. The University of Wisconsin/CIMSS has put together a remarkable hi-res satellite animation of the storm from the Himawari-8 satellite (which is still in check-out mode.) This is the most advanced geostationary satellite ever launched, and has images available every ten minutes with a resolution four times higher than the U.S. GOES satellites. The Himawari-8 imager is a clone of the imager expected to be launched on the U.S. GOES-R satellite in March 2016, which is likely to be initially positioned to view the Western Atlantic and Eastern Pacific. Something to look forward to!

Category 5 Super Typhoon Noul hits the Philippines
Category 5 Super Typhoon Noul (called Dodong in the Philippines’ naming system) made landfall near 5 am EDT Sunday, May 10, on the extreme northeastern tip of the Philippines' Luzon Island at Pananapan Pt., Sta. Ana, Cagayan. Satellite loops on Sunday morning showed that Noul's encounter with land significantly weakened the storm, with the eye disappearing from view and the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity noticeably deteriorating. Storm chaser James Reynolds has commentary and video of the landfall at his Twitter feed. Thankfully, the northeastern portion of the Philippines is sparsely populated, so Noul is not likely to be a major disaster for the Philippines. Noul is caught in a trough of low pressure that will swing the storm to the north and northeast, out to sea, skirting the coast of Japan.

An unusually early and violent typhoon season
May 10 is exceptionally early to be getting a Category 5 storm in the Northwest Pacific, let alone one landfalling at that strength! At its peak on Sunday morning, the Japan Meteorological Agency put Noul's central pressure at 915 mb. This makes Noul is the third strongest typhoon on record for so early in the year. The only stronger ones were Super Typhoon Amy of 1971, which deepened to 890 mb on May 2, and Super Typhoon Iris of 1951, which hit 909 mb on May 3.

Super Typhoon Noul is already the second Category Five storm this year in the Northwest Pacific, and the fourth overall on Earth in 2015. This is an unusually large number of these high-end tropical cyclones for so early in the year; Earth averaged just 4.6 Category 5 storms per year between 1990 - 2014, with the majority of these storms occurring during the August - November peak of the Northern Hemisphere's tropical cyclone season; 59% of all Cat 5s occur in the Northwest Pacific. Noul's formation date of May 3 was the 2nd earliest appearance of the season's 6th named storm on record for the Northwest Pacific. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) just began issuing advisories for Tropical Storm Dolphin in Micronesia on May 9, breaking the record set on May 19, 1971 for the earliest formation of the Northwest Pacific's seventh named storm of the year, according to statistics of the Japan Meteorological Agency's database from 1951 - 2015 maintained by Digital Typhoon. The early and violent start to 2015 typhoon season is due, in part, to exceptionally warm ocean temperatures in the typhoon breeding region between 5 - 10°N near the Date Line. These temperatures have been over 2°C (3.6°F) above average in recent months, due to a strengthening El Niño event.

The other three Category 5 storms of 2015 were Super Typhoon Maysak of March (160 mph winds), one of only three Category 5 typhoons ever observed in the Northwest Pacific prior to April; Tropical Cyclone Pam (165 mph winds), which devastated Vanuatu in mid-March, and Tropical Cyclone Eunice (160 mph winds), which affected ocean areas in the South Indian Ocean. Reliable satellite records of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones extend back to the early 1990s, so we only have about a 25-year period of good records for global Category 5 tropical cyclones.


Figure 4. Radar image of the supercell thunderstorm that hit Cisco, Texas on Saturday night, killing one person and injuring three.

Multiday severe outbreak shifts to eastern Plains
Storm-hammered residents of Oklahoma and Texas will get a chance to catch their breath early this week, as the intense weather plaguing the area since Wednesday finally moves eastward. The next significant episode is likely to arrive in the Southern Plains around next weekend, possibly preceded by yet another batch of heavy-raining storms later this week. In the meantime, severe storms will cover an expanded region on Sunday, with a slight risk extending from southern Minnesota to Illinois to central Texas, as a strong upper low accelerates eastward from Colorado. In its 1:00 am CDT outlook, the NOAA Storm Prediction Center called for an enhanced risk on Sunday in two areas, one centered on western Iowa (near the surface low and warm front) and another on northeast Texas (where the trailing end of the cold front will encounter especially rich low-level moisture). The highest risk of tornadoes will be in these two areas, although a widespread outbreak of strong tornadoes is not expected. Sunday's severe weather got off to an early start, though, with three tornado watches already in effect by 11:15 am CDT and law enforcement reporting damage from a tornado that struck near Delmar, SD, around 10:30 am CDT.

Saturday's severe weather was also split into two main focal points. Toward the south, a fearsome supercell churned just south of Interstate 20 from east of Abilene, TX, to the southwest exurbs of Dallas-Fort Worth. At least one person was killed by a tornado near the town of Cisco (see Figure 1) that appears to have produced significant damage. Although the storm later produced another tornado near Stephenville, it fortunately failed to live up to the potential implied by a very strong and persistent rotation signature on Doppler radar. Another supercell about 100 miles to the north generated twisters near Burkburnett, TX, and Randlett, OK, and a brief tornado was also reported near Elk City, OK. The other center of action for tornadoes was across eastern Colorado and western Kansas, where several storms were prolific twister-producers. Strong winds and cold air associated with the upper low more than compensated for cool surface temperatures (mainly in the 60s F), producing a very favorable setup for multiple high-plains tornadoes. An isolated supercell moving north from Eads, CO, produced at least six tornadoes across largely unpopulated terrain, and more than a dozen tornado reports came in from a late-evening storm that crossed I-70 in far northwest Kansas. Several more tornadoes were spun out by another cell just to the east (see Figure 5 below).


Figure 5. One of several tornadoes that emerged from a supercell near Collyer, KS. Image credit: wunderphotographer mhaase7.

Just a couple hours' drive northwest of the Colorado twisters, the scene was decidedly more wintry by evening. A burst of heavy snow swept across the Denver metro area around sunset, causing numerous accidents as temperatures fell into the upper 20s. The snow was preceded by heavy rain that put much of Colorado in flash flood watches and warnings. At one point, Colorado Springs was under five different types of NWS alerts, as noted by the Denver Post. The snow extended into Colorado's northern mountains, western Nebraska, eastern Wyoming, and north to the Black Hills of South Dakota, where blizzard warnings were in effect on Saturday night. Snowfall in May isn't all that uncommon in these parts--Denver averages 1.7 inches for the month--but this weekend's onslaught in Rapid City was another in a string of noteworthy snows falling either very early or very late in the season. These include the all-time multiday record storm of April 8-10, 2013 (28.2"); the devastating snowstorm of October 3-5, 2013 (23.1"); and the city's earliest snowfall on record (1.6" on September 11, 2014).

We're again covering today's severe weather on the experimental WU live blog.

Jeff Masters (tropical) and Bob Henson (severe)


Figure 6. The late-evening light of May illuminates snow falling on Saturday in Minatare, Nebraska, just southeast of Scottsbluff. Image credit: wunderphotographer JdyJdyJdy.

Super Cel Nort Mexico-Eagle Pass Tx
Super Cel Nort Mexico-Eagle Pass Tx
Cold Hummer
Cold Hummer
A cold hummingbird seeks refuge from a late spring snow storm.
Pink cherry blossoms against a bright blue sky
Pink cherry blossoms against a bright blue sky

Hurricane Severe Weather Winter Weather Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Another great blog!!
Thanks Dr. Masters. Strange may weather. But been nice for golf in Fl.
Thanks for the weekend update.

Seems to be yet more of what Dr. Masters calls "whiplash weather"

Quite a show by Mother Nature making using some of that extra energy and moisture that we humans have contributed to earth's oceans and atmosphere!
Looking at Ana just a second ago at the end of the frames she still has a small eye like feature and looks more symmetrical now. We are about to get that inner band here anytime now.

Thanks Dr. Masters.

Thanks Dr. Masters and nice to met you in person to..
from last blog
GFS forecast the first TROPICAL WAVE
24h

48h

144h near 50w
Thanks, Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson.

The worst part of dealing with tropical storms like Ana is the disgustingly humid air that comes with them. You're soaked if you spend any appreciable time outside.
Quoting 3. Xulonn:

Thanks for the weekend update.

Seems to be yet more of what Dr. Masters calls "whiplash weather"

Quite a show by Mother Nature making using some of that extra energy and moisture that we humans have contributed to earth's oceans and atmosphere!
Oh, I wouldn't worry about it. I'm sure it's all coincidence. Yes, nothing more than sheer coincidence...
The atlantic has taken a head start over the EPAC, which season kicks off in 5 days time. one would have thought that with all that hype of the raging El Nino that the eastern pacific season would have been more ominus. on that note there seems to be some cooling in the central and eastern pacific, with a gradual warming of the atlantic.
For the love of God, stop it with Ana's eye already. it is a slot of dry air for goodness sake. The entity Anna is dying, NOT forming an eye!
Huge thanks for such a comprehensive blog this morning. Happy Mothers Day to any fellow ladies on the blog.

As for the weather, things in Seattle are near "perfect". Yesterday it was completely sunny and we touched 80F. This is, of course, not quite right for this time of year. It should still be raining for at least another month...

that tropical which should approach the windwards during the 1st week of June is much higher in latitude than normal for this early part of the season.
Delmont, South Dakota was hit by a tornado 45-60 minutes ago. Debris was tossed upwards of 12,000ft , suggesting the potential for a strong tornado.

Quoting 11. thelmores:

For the love of God, stop it with Ana's eye already. it is a slot of dry air for goodness sake. The entity Anna is dying, NOT forming an eye!


That's why I said "eye like feature" I know what it is. Doesn't mean it don't look pretty cool for the little may storm that could during a strengthening El Nino year. We are getting some pretty decent moderate to heavy rain but the winds are failing to impress as she is weakening. I moved from fl in part to get away from these things (got a taste of beryl in 2012) and first preseason out the gate we get hit up here. It's funny and ironic and forgive me, but like many ppl on here I have a healthy fear and respect and awe for the raw power mother nature can unleash.
Thank you for this great blog. Pictures are spectacular...Noul is a show of natures raw power. Early season storm is cool to watch.Severe this time of year is common, no surprise there. Flooding is bad in some regions. Glad Noul grazed Luzon rather than a direct hit.



summer weather in the northeast today in new haven,conn
Quoting 3. Xulonn:

Thanks for the weekend update.

Seems to be yet more of what Dr. Masters calls "whiplash weather"

Quite a show by Mother Nature making using some of that extra energy and moisture that we humans have contributed to earth's oceans and atmosphere!


Time to cut off our donations.
Quoting 10. stoormfury:

The atlantic has taken a head start over the EPAC, which season kicks off in 5 days time. one would have thought that with all that hype of the raging El Nino that the eastern pacific season would have been more ominus. on that note there seems to be some cooling in the central and eastern pacific, with a gradual warming of the atlantic.


Ana's origin was nontropical, so her formation was more of a coincidence than anything else. The Eastern Pacific season doesn't usually start to wind up until late May anyway.
Good morning guys I thought about looking off africa this morning to see about the possibilities of seeing our first tropical wave as we normally would see our first tropical wave somewhere between 13th and 23rd of May according to the records

Anyway interesting feature nearing the W coast of Africa and I believe this may turn out to be our tropical wave I also looked at GFS to see if it has anything on this and sure enough there it is

Guys tropical wave season is starting early too
To all the moms on here, have a happy mother's day! :)
What a crazy string of days weather-wise: Noul putting on such an impressive show after having trouble clearing out an eye reminded me of Rammasun last year. I still believe the latter made it to cat 5 intensity too, and that typhoon had similar troubles intensifying until just leading up to landfall, much like Noul.

The Western Pacific is always incredible in how it can spin up epic cyclones so quickly, it's just unsettling that the Phillippines is in so many crosshairs.

Ana is impressing too for so soon, she's still maintaining her structure and actually seeming to have greater convection than when she originally made landfall. Coupled with her slowing a crawl, no doubt her feeder bands still have access to the warm Gulf Stream waters, which is why she's still alive and kicking: she could likely turn into quite the rain event if this keeps up.

This May is becoming kinda nuts. Let's hope the severe weather takes a breather for today!
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1201 AM TROPICAL STORM OATLAND 33.50N 79.34W
05/10/2015 GEORGETOWN SC EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN ON SUTTON RD.

0916 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 WSW BRIARCLIFFE ACRES 33.78N 78.77W
05/10/2015 E1.50 INCH HORRY SC MEDIA

STREET FLOODING ON KINGS ROAD. ROAD WAS CLOSED.

0206 AM COASTAL FLOOD 2 ENE OCEAN ISLE BEACH 33.90N 78.39W
05/10/2015 BRUNSWICK NC PUBLIC

1-3 FT OF WATER FROM OVERWASH ALONG EAST 5TH STREET AND SHALLOTTE BLVD.

0452 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY 33.44N 77.74W
05/09/2015 M58 MPH AMZ270 NC BUOY

1217 AM TROPICAL STORM OCEAN CREST PIER 33.92N 78.15W
05/10/2015 BRUNSWICK NC BUOY

60 MPH WIND GUST RECORDED.

0957 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE SOUTHPORT 33.92N 78.02W
05/09/2015 M59 MPH BRUNSWICK NC MESONET

1220 PM TROPICAL STORM 2 ESE WILMINGTON 34.20N 77.88W
05/09/2015 NEW HANOVER NC PUBLIC

TREE DOWN ON PINE CONE ROAD.
Those storms south of mitchell, sd have a few circulations. Wow.
Do you guys think this will be like the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season, but the opposite?
Where they said an active season but it was a far below average season and now they said below average but it could be above average. Hope That Made Sense lol.

(click image for current Day 1 discussion and graphics)
are the early and late season storms in the western , north western atlantic, as well as the gomex not tropical in nature?
are they not always form from stalled out fronts or upper level troughs coming down to the surface. eventually they attain tropical characteristic like what happened to Anna. bottom line.
29. JRRP
Quoting 21. wunderkidcayman:

Good morning guys I thought about looking off africa this morning to see about the possibilities of seeing our first tropical wave as we normally would see our first tropical wave somewhere between 13th and 23rd of May according to the records

Anyway interesting feature nearing the W coast of Africa and I believe this may turn out to be our tropical wave I also looked at GFS to see if it has anything on this and sure enough there it is

Guys tropical wave season is starting early too

last year the first tropical wave was May 14
30. JRRP

oh please
Worst conditions of the tropical storm so far here. I'd say gusts are reaching 45 mph.
Quoting 10. stoormfury:

The atlantic has taken a head start over the EPAC, which season kicks off in 5 days time. one would have thought that with all that hype of the raging El Nino that the eastern pacific season would have been more ominus. on that note there seems to be some cooling in the central and eastern pacific, with a gradual warming of the atlantic.


Tropical waves will start rolling off Africa soon - which normally contribute to EPAC systems as they cross central america. Given the onset of El Nino, the EPAC will overtake the Atlantic soon enough.

Also, the Altantic has been cooling off quite a bit recently, with the MDR once again with below average SSTs:





Of course these things chop and change all the time but the current SST pattern in the Atlantic is quite bad for Tropical Cyclone activity.
Quoting 26. nygiants:

Do you guys think this will be like the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season, but the opposite?
Where they said an active season but it was a far below average season and now they said below average but it could be above average. Hope That Made Sense lol.

Forecasting hurricane activity in general is still very difficult, and what you're saying can't completely be ruled out even though it's unlikely. For example, see 2012: it was a warm Neutral year, aiding in above-average shear across the deep tropics. However, the subtropical Atlantic became very conducive that year, and we ended up seeing the 3rd most active season on record.

I'd classify cases like that as more of the exception rather than the rule. Most signals point to a very quiet season.

Addendum: a quiet year doesn't mean we can't see a major hurricane landfall, yada yada yada...
Quoting 32. Envoirment:



Tropical waves will start rolling off Africa soon - which normally contribute to EPAC systems as they cross central america. Given the onset of El Nino, the EPAC will overtake the Atlantic soon enough.

Also, the Altantic has been cooling off quite a bit recently, with the MDR once again with below average SSTs:





Of course these things chop and change all the time but the current SST pattern in the Atlantic is quite bad for Tropical Cyclone activity.
Tropical wave just exited the Western African Coast.
Quoting 26. nygiants:

Do you guys think this will be like the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season, but the opposite?
Where they said an active season but it was a far below average season and now they said below average but it could be above average. Hope That Made Sense lol.


Lol if this is the case at the end of the season I'm gonna chug down about 5 bottles of moonshine and 2 bottle of vodka and head down to the gun range lol


12Z GFS continues to show our next storm "Bill" in the SW Carib moving N
Also to note it continues to move down the time line now start before the 200hr mark
If this continues down to the 5-7day mark we should keep close eye on this
Keep in mind this area is one of the hotspots for early season (May/June) development
And yes I remember about GFS ghost storm problem but note that most of GFS ghost storm problem is during the 300+hr timeframe and a little in the mid 200's hr and up but as I stated above this run starts before 200hr mark and I stated that if this does come down into the 5-7day timeframe they we should really keep an eye out
Quoting 31. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Worst conditions of the tropical storm so far here. I'd say gusts are reaching 45 mph.


We're trying to keep up best we can...closest convection is miles and miles away.

KIAH (HOUSTON/INTNL , TX, US) observed 1653 UTC 10 May 2015

from the S (170 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 knots; 7.8 m/s)
gusting to 30 MPH (26 knots; 13.5 m/s)
wunderkidcayman....possible ghost storm but the excitement is nice sometimes lol. Does start it early 200's tho but watever right now









Maybe one of these years this'll actually happen, lol. Gotta give the GFS credit for year-over-year consistency. That's tough to find among models :)

if the EPAC doesn't explode, there's a good chance the atlantic doesn't get completely shut down. maybe might get average numbers this season. 11 5 2
To far out to consider, but it has happened. The wave from Africa may make it to the Caribbean.

Interesting that 3 of the 10 early-landfalling tropical storms in the last 115 years have occurred in the last 8 years.
I'm not saying what the GFS is showing cannot pan out -- it did begin showing Ana over 10 days out after all -- but more than likely the model is just overcompensating for a strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave forecast to push into the basin as we end May.

000
NOUS42 KILM 101622 CCA
PNSILM

NOUS42 KILM 101530
PNSILM
NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039 -053>056-101830-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1130 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015


********************TROPICA STORM ANA 24 HOUR RAINFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
RAINFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

SOUTH CAROLINA

...HORRY COUNTY...
BRIARCLIFFE ACRES 1 1.50 916 AM 5/10 MEDIA
N MYRTLE BEACH 1.08 800 AM 5/10 ASOS
MYRTLE BEACH 5.0 NNW 2.00 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS
MYRTLE BEACH 7.4 NNW 1.29 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS
MURRELLS INLET 1.7 N 1.25 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS
N. MYRTLE BEACH 1.4 1.21 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS
MYRTLE BEACH 9.1 WSW 1.21 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS
PAWLEYS IS 5.6 NNE 1.20 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS
MYRTLE BEACH 5.2 SW 1.04 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS
CONWAY 5.4 SSE 1.02 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS

...GEORGETOWN COUNTY...
GEORGETOWN AIRPORT 0.50 800 AM 5/10 COOP
NORTH INLET 0.83 800 AM 5/10 NOS
GEORGETOWN 5.3 NNE 0.97 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS

NORTH CAROLINA

...PENDER COUNTY...
SURF CITY 2.50 800 AM 5/10 COOP
BACK ISLAND 1.28 800 AM 5/10 RAWS
HAMPSTEAD 0.3 NW 1.47 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS
TOPSAIL BEACH 0.9 E 1.17 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS
HOLLY RIDGE 4.8 ENE 1.00 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS
HAMPSTEAD 1.9 S 0.98 00 AM 5/10 COCORAHS

...BRUNSWICK COUNTY...
LONGWOOD 1.55 800 AM 5/10 COOP
SUNNY POINT 1.07 800 AM 5/10 RAWS
SUPPLY 1.32 800 AM 5/10 RAWS
OAK ISLAND 0.7 W 1.76 700 MM 5/10 COCORAHS
OAK ISLAND 2.3 E 1.18 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS
SOUTHPORT 5.9 W 1.61 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS
SOUTHPORT 1.0 NE 1.54 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS
SOUTHPORT 2.7 NNW 1.44 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS
ST. JAMES 1.9 W 1.48 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS
SUNSET BEACH 1.7 WNW 1.29 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS
SUNSET BEACH 3.4 N 1.25 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS
CALABASH 1.2 NNW 1.15 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS

...NEW HANOVER COUNTY...
MASONBORO ISLAND 0.54 800 AM 5/10 NOS
WILMINGTON 7 SE 0.49 800 AM 5/10 COOP
WILMINGTON AIRPORT 0.88 800 AM 5/10 ASOS

...BLADEN COUNTY...
TURNBULL CREEK 1.17 800 AM 5/10 RAWS
ELIZABETHTOWN 0.61 800 AM 5/10 COOP
ELIZABETHTOWN 6.2 NW 1.48 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS
ELIZABETHTOWN 6.6 NW 1.32 700 AM 5/10 COCORAHS


...ROBESON COUNTY...
LUMBERTON 1.19 800 AM 5/10 COOP


***********************PEAK WIND GUSTS 40 MPH OR GEATER***********************

LOCATION MAX WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTS
GUST OF
MPH MEASUREMENT


...BUOYS...
FRYING PAN SHOALS 58 452 PM 5/09
BUOY 41038 5 SE WRIGHTSV 43 202 AM 5/10
BUOY 41037 35 SE WRGHTSV 45 952 PM 5/09
OCEAN CREAST PIER 60 1217 AM 5/10

...NORTH CAROLINA...

BRUNSWICK COUNTY
SOUTHPORT 1 SSE 59 957 PM 5/09 MESONET
SUPPLY 41 118 AM 5/10 RAWS
SUNNY POINT 0:18 49 918 PM 5/09 RAWS
SOUTHPORT 41 255 AM 5/10 AWOS
SOUTHPORT-CAPE FEAR PLTS 62 1123 PM 5/9 MESONET
OCEAN CREST PIER OAK ISL 55 452 AM 5/10 MESONET
SUNSET BEACH-3 MI NORTH 44 227 AM 5/10 MESONET
LITTLE RVR HIDDEN LK VLG 53 158 AM 5/10 MESONET

NEW HANOVER COUNTY

JOHNNY MERCER PR - JMPN7 46 1230 AM 5/10 MESONET
WRIGHTVILLE BCH STONE ST 40 156 AM 5/10 MESONET
MASONBORO ISLAND 44 645 AM 5/09 NOS

PENDER COUNTY

HAMPSTEAD-CASTLE BAY 40 927 PM 5/09 MESONET

...ROBESON COUNTY...

MAXTON 41 811 AM 05/09 ASOS

...SOUTH CAROLINA...

HORRY COUNTY

NORTH MYRTLE BCH 50 1253 AM 5/10 ASOS
SPRINGMAID PIER 43 1230 PM 5/09 NOS

...GEORGETOWN COUNTY...

NORTH INLET - NIWS1 44 115 PM 5/09 NOS


$$

ROSS
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_atlantic_3 00_850_temp_mslp_precip.gifLink

Ok, finally got it right this time. Tropical Storm South of Cuba in a couple of weeks. Look Out!
Quoting 31. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Worst conditions of the tropical storm so far here. I'd say gusts are reaching 45 mph.


Holden Beach, NC

Link
Havana established its absolute heat record last April 26, with 37 Celsius degrees. For more details you can see my post about it on the following Link
Quoting 37. nygiants:

wunderkidcayman....possible ghost storm but the excitement is nice sometimes lol. Does start it early 200's tho but watever right now











Before this it showed it in late 200hrs and before that it showed it in early 300hrs and before that it showed it near the 372hr
So it is coming down the timeline like it should

Quoting 40. hydrus:

To far out to consider, but it has happened. The wave from Africa may make it to the Caribbean.



It just may happen

Quoting 42. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not saying what the GFS is showing cannot pan out -- it did begin showing Ana over 10 days out after all -- but more than likely the model is just overcompensating for a strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave forecast to push into the basin as we end May.




Maybe maybe not we just have to wait and see

Quoting 43. hydrus:




Well it does show precip growing where it should be if this thing was to occur
thanks for update
lots to watch see and read about
interesting days with more yet too come
have a great day
55. JRRP
active CCKW in a week EPAC-SW CARIB
Weather Station at Ocean Isle Beach, NC, Most South East part of NC. We took a direct hit from Ana. Very high winds Friday, Saturday and today is unreal. Slow moving, 5.53 inches of rain since midnight.
Still nasty in Holden Beach. Check out the wave action.
Quoting 56. RichiePD:

Weather Station at Ocean Isle Beach, NC, Most South East part of NC. We took a direct hit from Ana. Very high winds Friday, Saturday and today is unreal. Slow moving, 5.53 inches of rain since midnight.


How are your current conditions?
Still heavy rain 1/2" an hour wind speed 18mpg, averaging 13 mph. Some sideways rain
...ANA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
2:00 PM EDT Sun May 10
Location: 34.1°N 78.9°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
OVERLAND CYCLONE
01L/TD/A/XX
Quoting 59. RichiePD:

Still heavy rain 1/2" an hour wind speed 18mpg, averaging 13 mph. Some sideways rain


Some minor power outages reported on Brunsco site, all now at 100%.
Quoting 60. TropicalAnalystwx13:

...ANA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
2:00 PM EDT Sun May 10
Location: 34.1°N 78.9°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph


Flood Threat
Comments on yesterday's deadly tornado in Cisco.

Hook and rotation noted on radar (mentioned in wunderground blog).
Chasers reported high shear (over 90 mph) with the cell (mentioned in blog)
Chaser reported seeing tornado on the ground (mentioned in blog)
At this point there was still no Tornado Warning issued.

NWS went with a Severe Thunderstorm Warning and didn't change it over to a Tornado Warning until well after the cell showed rotation and spotters had reported a tornado on the ground.

Minutes/seconds save lives with tornadoes. Some times it hard to understand how bloggers in a weather forum can warn people of a tornado (using radar and chaser networks) 5-10 minutes faster than the NWS?




Quoting 55. JRRP:

active CCKW in a week EPAC-SW CARIB


DO you think that system if it develops at all could hit florida...just asking for a guess because it has not formed at all yet.
Ana please speed up, flooded lawns had enough. 28.06 inches for the year in OIB.
@NWSFortWorth · 20m
Preliminary survey for the Cisco tornado on Sunday: EF-3 damage found south and southwest of Cisco. #txwx #dfwwx #abilenewx
Quoting 57. wxgeek723:

Still nasty in Holden Beach. Check out the wave action.


Is there a way to watch what it recorded this morning or is it just a live feed?
Ana..is..stalling...


Quoting 68. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@NWSFortWorth · 20m
Preliminary survey for the Cisco tornado on Sunday: EF-3 damage found south and southwest of Cisco. #txwx #dfwwx #abilenewx


Definitely a nasty tornado. It formed quickly on the southern most cell that fired on the dry line. It was a classic butterfly supercell with a hook that eventually developed a debris ball.
I even remember hoping it wouldn't hit any towns.
The worst floods in decades in Havana. For more details you can see my post about it on the following
Link
Anyone experiencing Ana's "eyewall" conditions?
might be one interesting May this year.............................................. .............
Yesterday
The southern cell on the dry line just before dropping a tornado,
Quoting 74. LargoFl:

might be one interesting May this year.............................................. .............
be a good kick start too the season to have two before it even gets going
Climate patterns over Cuba and southeastern United States during May and June. For more details you can see my post
about it on the following Link
78. JRRP
Quoting 66. nygiants:


DO you think that system if it develops at all could hit florida...just asking for a guess because it has not formed at all yet.

I do not know, is early to tell
It's interesting how the weak tropical storms always look their best as they spin down.

Quoting 61. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

OVERLAND CYCLONE
01L/TD/A/XX


Still a vigorous looking swirl despite being downgraded to a depression. Ana is still fighting pretty hard to stay together.
So not only does she drive her car into a pond during heavy rain, she also finds the time to talk on the cell phone while she and the car are still in the pond..

Gotta love our Wilmington Drivers

WWAY NEWS


Good Samaritans help rescue the driver of a car that wound up in the pond at Costco in #ilm earlier. #WWAYAna (Photo by Denise Owings)

Quoting 79. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's interesting how the weak tropical storms always look their best as they spin down.




Yeah, their energy spreads out and the convection is highly visible over land.
Quoting 82. ncstorm:

So not only does she drive her car into a pond during heavy rain, she also finds the time to talk on the cell phone while she and the car are still in the pond..

Gotta love our Wilmington Drivers

WWAY NEWS


Good Samaritans help rescue the driver of a car that wound up in the pond at Costco in #ilm earlier. #WWAYAna (Photo by Denise Owings)




She was also intoxicated on top of that.

Quoting 74. LargoFl:

might be one interesting May this. year.............................................. .............
Quoting 74. LargoFl:

might be one interesting May this year.............................................. .............
Quoting 69. win1gamegiantsplease:



Is there a way to watch what it recorded this morning or is it just a live feed?


Click on archives on the bottom right. Beneath the image you can view past recordings hour by hour going back 24 hours.
Looks like Central Oklahoma is about to fire off again today. Seems like everyday for them. I used to live in Central Oklahoma. It must be a muddy mess and the lakes are red (red clay soil) from all the run off.
Thanks doks.
Quoting 84. win1gamegiantsplease:



So not only does she drive her car into a pond during heavy rain, she also finds the time to talk on the cell phone while she and the car are still in the pond.



Gotta love the mindlessness of the endless minions of cell phone users.
Tornado Warning just north of Fort Worth.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
202 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 202 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CORRAL CITY...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TROPHY CLUB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ARGYLE AND BARTONVILLE AROUND 215 PM CDT.
KRUM AROUND 220 PM CDT.
CORINTH AROUND 225 PM CDT.
SHADY SHORES AROUND 230 PM CDT.
Well maybe they might expand the hurricane season..starting May 15th becuase it seems like May storms are getting common
Updated radar up the blog.
TD Ana now centered in Columbus County, NC. The Lake Waccamaw area has seen a little over 2 inches over the last 24 hours.
The tornado Warning has been extended to the N.E.
It's pouring here at my location in S. Fort Myers. Very nice surprise.
TWC needs Carl Parker or Dr. Forbes on the air badly.
Quoting 76. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

be a good kick start too the season to have two before it even gets going
yes may be an unusual season this year keeper
Quoting 84. win1gamegiantsplease:



She was also intoxicated on top of that.


And probably can't be charged with DUI because they didn't catch her doing it, just sitting in her car drunk. No law against that! :-)
Pretty significant tornado damage in Belmont, South Dakota (small town). TWC says that all residents are being asked to leave town.
Quoting 98. LargoFl:

yes may be an unusual season this year keeper
its been unusual for quite awhile now and it shall continue and likely become even more unusual over time
May month LOL
Quoting 99. CaneFreeCR:

And probably can't be charged with DUI because they didn't catch her doing it, just sitting in her car drunk. No law against that! :-)


She was arrested for it. And if you're behind the steering wheel of a vehicle, on or off, and you're over the limit you can be charged.


Pretty good for an over land TD :P
Quoting 103. win1gamegiantsplease:



She was arrested for it. And if you're behind the steering wheel of a vehicle, on or off, and you're over the limit you can be charged.
yep as long as the keys are on you or in the car if not then its just a drunk in public charge
This is why I go to Sam's Club.

In all seriousness, kudos to the individuals that jumped in to help.


Quoting 82. ncstorm:

So not only does she drive her car into a pond during heavy rain, she also finds the time to talk on the cell phone while she and the car are still in the pond..

Gotta love our Wilmington Drivers

WWAY NEWS


Good Samaritans help rescue the driver of a car that wound up in the pond at Costco in #ilm earlier. #WWAYAna (Photo by Denise Owings)


It hit 90 degrees today here in South-central New Hampshire. There is some humidity in the air as well. I think I smell a storm coming!
Could she move back over water?

Quoting 80. Huracan94:


Still a vigorous looking swirl despite being downgraded to a depression. Ana is still fighting pretty hard to stay together.
New tornado warning north of Dallas.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
349 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015

NCC017-019-047-129-141-102230-
/O.NEW.KILM.FA.Y.0005.150510T1949Z-150510T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PENDER NC-BLADEN NC-NEW HANOVER NC-BRUNSWICK NC-COLUMBUS NC-
349 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
PENDER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEASTERN BLADEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
NEW HANOVER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
CENTRAL COLUMBUS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 345 PM EDT...WIND DRIVEN RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AROUND THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH
NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE HEAVIEST
RAIN FALLING ACROSS BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES
AND MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER
ON THE ROADWAYS...SWOLLEN CREEKS AND STREAMS AND MINOR FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
WILMINGTON...LELAND...OAK ISLAND...CAROLINA BEACH...BURGAW...
SHALLOTTE...SUNSET BEACH...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...KURE BEACH...SURF
CITY...HOLDEN BEACH...OCEAN ISLE BEACH...CASWELL BEACH...BALD HEAD
ISLAND...SNOWS CUT...OCEAN CREST PIER...RICH INLET...YAUPON
BEACH...SOUTH MASONBORO ISLAND AND FIGURE EIGHT ISLAND.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...STEEP RUN...
JUNIPER CREEK...TOMS FORK...WEYMAN CREEK...PINCH GUT CREEK...BURNT
MILL CREEK...TAYLOR BRANCH...DANS CREEK...SAND HILL CREEK...POPLAR
BRANCH...MOORES CREEK...CYPRESS CREEK...DEEP BRANCH...MARLOW
BRANCH...RICHLANDS BRANCH...MILLPOND, THE...NESS CREEK...INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY...JONES CREEK...WARD BRANCH...MULBERRY BRANCH...STURGEON
CREEK...ROWEL BRANCH...DOCTORS CREEK...COLVINS CREEK...MILL POND...
BARNARDS CREEK...WHITES CREEK...HORSE PEN SWAMP AND CYPRESS BRANCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 7769 3417 7783 3384 7796 3389 7803
3391 7814 3390 7837 3386 7853 3411 7883
3474 7839 3455 7825 3472 7811 3472 7768
3448 7758 3444 7752

$$

RGZ
Quoting 108. HaoleboySurfEC:

Could she move back over water?




She is expected to enter the Atlantic south of Delmarva but should be transitioning into an extratropical system tomorrow night into Tuesday. Water temps not warm enough there as is.


Actually starts trying to materialize not too far out...we'll see..
Quoting 112. JrWeathermanFL:



TS or Hurricane heading to Florida? :/


...ANA MOVING FARTHER INLAND... ...LAST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...

bye Ana..
Another sunny day here in Phi...south central...eastern North Carolina. >-> Nothing to see folks I've hardly noticed the trees moving around today. Stay safe everyone!
It's been raining hard here for the past 4.5 hours
Quoting 117. hydrus:


self implosion
Quoting 117. hydrus:




In my minds eye that went poof rather quickly, sometimes I forget radar loops can be extensive in length.
Wish I had a way of showing you guys the beautiful scenery Ana is giving me here. Trees and bushes being rocked to and fro by gusts that are spraying mist into my open window, all the while I have a Cardinal roaming around for supper just ten feet outside said window.
Quoting 101. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its been unusual for quite awhile now and it shall continue and likely become even more unusual over time
Why do you say this?
124. MZT
Quoting 121. CloudyWithAChance:

Wish I had a way of showing you guys the beautiful scenery Ana is giving me here. Trees and bushes being rocked to and fro by gusts that are spraying mist into my open window, all the while I have a Cardinal roaming around for supper just ten feet outside said window.
Ana was mainly pleasant weather in most of NC. This probably would not have even been named in the pre-satellite era.
SevereStudios @severestudios · 1 min Há 1 minuto
Triple tornado warning in the Texas/Oklahoma area. Take shelter now!
Quoting 122. NativeSun:

Why do you say this?
because it is in fact so and will continue as so
faster and faster we go
Quoting 120. CloudyWithAChance:



In my minds eye that went poof rather quickly, sometimes I forget radar loops can be extensive in length.

It literally looks like Noul blew itself to pieces. I guess that's a good thing for the Philippines :)
If this is considered usual sign me up for another round nothing but dull sunny weather here for like two weeks in a row. -_-
The Weather Channel @weatherchannel · 17 seg Há 17 segundos
From our colleagues at KXAS RT @NBCDFW: @AmesChopper5 spots people on their roof in the Krum area (near Denton, #TX)
131. beell
Not a big deal, here...but is the comment counter broke?
Quoting 130. Luisport:

The Weather Channel @weatherchannel · 17 seg Há 17 segundos
From our colleagues at KXAS RT @NBCDFW: @AmesChopper5 spots people on their roof in the Krum area (near Denton, #TX)

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
429 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXC097-121-110015-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-150511T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
DENTON TX-COOKE TX-
429 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT SUNDAY
FOR NORTHWESTERN DENTON AND COOKE COUNTIES...

AT 427 PM CDT...MEDIA REPORTED THAT ARMY NATIONAL GUARD HELICOPTERS
WERE ASSISTING WITH HIGH WATER RESCUES IN KRUM IN DENTON COUNTY.

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
133. rheba
Where can I get that radar graphic shown at the beginning of this post? Classic Weather Undergound has been discontinued and I can only get a really dreadful graphic on the new site.
Quoting 133. rheba:

Where can I get that radar graphic shown at the beginning of this post? Classic Weather Undergound has been discontinued and I can only get a really dreadful graphic on the new site.

Top of the page, under the 'Maps and Radar' dropdown menu, click 'Radar Maps', then click the area of the country you're interested in. From there select the specific radar. Hope that helps.
Quoting 126. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

because it is in fact so and will continue as so
Quoting 126. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

because it is in fact so and will continue as so
I understand your thoughts, but what has changed to make this a continuing cycle.
Holden Beach, NC still getting the brunt of Ana

Link
Quoting 136. NativeSun:

I understand your thoughts, but what has changed to make this a continuing cycle.
Mainly, but not only, a 61% increase in the main atmospheric gas that causes the atmosphere to retain heat, thus moisture, and induces changes in circulation due to shifts caused by the resulting warming.
139. yoboi
Quoting 138. CaneFreeCR:

Mainly, but not only, a 61% increase in the main atmospheric gas that causes the atmosphere to retain heat, thus moisture, and induces changes in circulation due to shifts caused by the resulting warming.


And approaching 3,500 days since a major made landfall in the U.S.
Quoting 136. NativeSun:

I understand your thoughts, but what has changed to make this a continuing cycle.

everything


change one thing changes everything
Hmmm, the NHC has discontinued advisories on Ana already. Doesn't seem post-tropical to me yet.
my local radar its hammer time

Quoting 141. LostTomorrows:

Hmmm, the NHC has discontinued advisories on Ana already. Doesn't seem post-tropical to me yet.

yeah its expected to be an overland system now
and threat of dev has ended no future for this system
its done like dinner
any future info will come from
local national weather service offices
conditions at airport

Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 6:04 PM EDT Sunday 10 May 2015




Condition:Thunderstorm
Pressure:30.0 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:10 miles
Temperature:72.3°F
Dewpoint:63.7°F
Humidity:74%
Wind:SSE 5 mph
Humidex: 83
Quoting 139. yoboi:



And approaching 3,500 days since a major made landfall in the U.S.

Good thing the U.S. is the only inhabited place on the planet
The worst floods in decades in Havana. For more details you can see my post about it on the following
Link
Quoting 114. nygiants:


TS or Hurricane heading to Florida? :/


Nope
Strong TS maybe weak Hurricane heading to Cayman Islands and Cuba

Anyway still too early to say where this thing may go
But it not early to say that it's quite possible that we may have a TS in the W Carib
We have to wait and watch the models during the next few days
148. beell
Quoting 145. ACSeattle:


Good thing the U.S. is the only inhabited place on the planet


And we've had 9.5 years to prepare for the next major. I'm sure we're ready!
Quoting 147. wunderkidcayman:



Nope
Strong TS maybe weak Hurricane heading to Cayman Islands and Cuba

Anyway still too early to say where this thing may go
But it not early to say that it's quite possible that we may have a TS in the W Carib
We have to wait and watch the models during the next few days

It won't turn into it like Hurricane Irene (1999)
Saw half a dozen cg lightning strikes in 5 minutes with the squall line coming through! No shelf cloud though due to too many clouds immediately ahead of the line. Wow, there's a lot of flooding in dallas.
Quoting 117. hydrus:






I think the eye stayed just offshore.


Ana's Eye.
:P
Quoting 145. ACSeattle:


Good thing the U.S. is the only inhabited place on the planet


Amen ; )

Quoting 148. beell:



And we've had 9.5 years to prepare for the next major. I'm sure we're ready!


18.5 years for us, camel in the desert.
Quoting 149. nygiants:


It won't turn into it like Hurricane Irene (1999)


Lol it's Possible but I highly highly doubt it

First off Irene was in Oct not May
If this does happen I could see a strong TS or a very weak hurricane but nothing like what Irene brought

And if it was to happen and impact florida it would be the keys and S florida but I doubt it anyway if it happen W Carib Cuba Bahamas likely and S Fl and keys more likely than anywhere else in Florida if it was to go that way
Quoting 154. wunderkidcayman:



Lol it's Possible but I highly highly doubt it

First off Irene was in Oct not May
If this does happen I could see a strong TS or a very weak hurricane but nothing like what Irene brought

And if it was to happen and impact florida it would be the keys and S florida but I doubt it anyway if it happen W Carib Cuba Bahamas likely and S Fl and keys more likely than anywhere else in Florida if it was to go that way

I know but it starts in similar place, thats why I said Irene.
Looking at the models they still jumping between two options

#1 from SW Carib to NW Carib then Cuba Bahama or S Florida
#2 from SW Carib to Honduras and Yucatan and possibly S GOM

At this point to early to say where it will go but consistency is there that a system would form and develop during that time frame
As we get closer to that timeframe then we could have a better idea
Quoting 157. wunderkidcayman:

Looking at the models they still jumping between two options

#1 from SW Carib to NW Carib then Cuba Bahama or S Florida
#2 from SW Carib to Honduras and Yucatan and possibly S GOM

At this point to early to say where it will go but consistency is there that a system would form and develop during that time frame
As we get closer to that timeframe then we could have a better idea

Was thinking same LOL
Ana- an early season surprise.

Our last El Nino year had Ida, only it was late season.

Let's sea if this El Nino year throws more surprises at us.
Thus far the official peak rainfall totals occurred at Ana's landfall point, North Myrtle Beach, with 4.33" with inland Brunswick County, NC receiving over 4 inches as well. Official peak wind gusts of 62 and 60 mph occurred at Ocean Crest Pier in Oak Island and Southport, NC, respectively.
161. 7544
Hello does anyone have a link to the classic blog tia
I still don't understand why the National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory on Ana so fast, several buoys are still recording TD winds?

Station OCPN7
CORMP
Location: 33.911N 78.147W
Date: Sun, 10 May 2015 23:47:00 UTC
Winds: S (180°) at 28.9 kt gusting to 35.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.96 in
Air Temperature: 70.2 F
Water Temperature: 69.4 F


Station JMPN7
NOS
Location: 34.213N 77.786W
Date: Sun, 10 May 2015 23:42:00 UTC
Winds: S (180°) at 28.9 kt gusting to 34.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.95 in
Air Temperature: 71.2 F
Water Temperature: 71.8 F

Ana might be one of the least efficient rain producers in a long time, I don't understand how such a slow moving system hasn't produced more rain, I'm used to seeing tropical systems dump 10-20 inches when they move this slow.
Quoting 162. FIUStormChaser:

I still don't understand why the National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory on Ana so fast, several buoys are still recording TD winds?

Station OCPN7
CORMP
Location: 33.911N 78.147W
Date: Sun, 10 May 2015 23:47:00 UTC
Winds: S (180%uFFFD) at 28.9 kt gusting to 35.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.96 in
Air Temperature: 70.2 F
Water Temperature: 69.4 F


Station JMPN7
NOS
Location: 34.213N 77.786W
Date: Sun, 10 May 2015 23:42:00 UTC
Winds: S (180%uFFFD) at 28.9 kt gusting to 34.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.95 in
Air Temperature: 71.2 F
Water Temperature: 71.8 F




6.6.2.2 Issuance Criteria. The WPC will issue public advisories after NHC discontinues its advisories on subtropical and tropical cyclones that have moved inland in the
conterminous U.S. or Mexico, but still pose a threat of heavy rain and flash floods in the conterminous U.S. or Mexico. The last NHC advisory will normally be issued when winds in an inland tropical cyclone drop below tropical storm strength, and the tropical depression is not forecast to regain tropical storm intensity or re-emerge over water. Therefore, WPC will only handle tropical depressions or remnants. WPC advisories will terminate when the threat of flash flooding has ended.

Tropical Cyclone Weather Services Program, NWSPD 10-6
Quoting 161. 7544:

Hello does anyone have a link to the classic blog tia


The classic blog does not exist any longer.

Quoting 162. FIUStormChaser:

I still don't understand why the National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory on Ana so fast, several buoys are still recording TD winds?

Station OCPN7
CORMP
Location: 33.911N 78.147W
Date: Sun, 10 May 2015 23:47:00 UTC
Winds: S (180°) at 28.9 kt gusting to 35.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.96 in
Air Temperature: 70.2 F
Water Temperature: 69.4 F


Station JMPN7
NOS
Location: 34.213N 77.786W
Date: Sun, 10 May 2015 23:42:00 UTC
Winds: S (180°) at 28.9 kt gusting to 34.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.95 in
Air Temperature: 71.2 F
Water Temperature: 71.8 F



They've just passed advisories off to the Weather Prediction Center, which will continue advertising on the storm until it degenerates.
167. beell
Quoting 162. FIUStormChaser:

I still don't understand why the National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory on Ana so fast, several buoys are still recording TD winds?

Station OCPN7
CORMP
Location: 33.911N 78.147W
Date: Sun, 10 May 2015 23:47:00 UTC
Winds: S (180°) at 28.9 kt gusting to 35.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.96 in
Air Temperature: 70.2 F
Water Temperature: 69.4 F


Station JMPN7
NOS
Location: 34.213N 77.786W
Date: Sun, 10 May 2015 23:42:00 UTC
Winds: S (180°) at 28.9 kt gusting to 34.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.95 in
Air Temperature: 71.2 F
Water Temperature: 71.8 F




Not sure if there is a specific policy that addresses your question, but it seems to be a fairly consistent practice (We'll leave Sandy out of it) to discontinue advisories and discussions when a storm transitions to extratropical or wind speeds drop below TS force (TD).
168. beell
There you are, nrt! Awesome. Thanks.
Quoting 166. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The classic blog does not exist any longer.


They've just passed advisories off to the Weather Prediction Center, which will continue advertising on the storm until it degenerates.


I still have it on my computer.
Quoting 168. beell:

There you are, nrt! Awesome. Thanks.


The word of the day is conterminous (new one on me).

:enclosed within one common boundary
Happy Mother's Day to all the fabulous moms out there!
172. beell
Quoting 170. nrtiwlnvragn:



The word of the day is conterminous (new one on me).

:enclosed within one common boundary


I knew something you didn't (or you forgot it, lol)? Actually the derivation of the acronym "CONUS" as opposed to "contiguous" or "continental"
Quoting 164. Jedkins01:

Ana might be one of the least efficient rain producers in a long time, I don't understand how such a slow moving system hasn't produced more rain, I'm used to seeing tropical systems dump 10-20 inches when they move this slow.


Maybe because she had to deal with a dry atmosphere for such a long time, didn't pull in as much moisture as she could have under better conditions, which didn't appear until yesterday. But yea Allison was a cold-core storm to begin with also and dumped over two feet of rain in Texas if I recall correctly.
Quoting 164. Jedkins01:

Ana might be one of the least efficient rain producers in a long time, I don't understand how such a slow moving system hasn't produced more rain, I'm used to seeing tropical systems dump 10-20 inches when they move this slow.

My yard and my shoes beg to differ.
Quoting 139. yoboi:



And approaching 3,500 days since a major made landfall in the U.S.
To me, that is a wonderful thing. Its nice to go outside without the smell of death and broken trees. To walk on the ground without getting soaked above the knees. And go in the house with my refrigerator and A.C. crankin...I can dig it....:)
176. beell
A check of the evening soundings to the north and west of TD Ana continues to show mid-level dry air spiraling into the circulation. Given the dynamics directly over the low and part of the circulation over water in the ne quad, there will be rain-but tempered by entrainment.
Quoting 174. TropicalAnalystwx13:


My yard and my shoes beg to differ.


Ok you guys I will stay on wunderground. I'll try to act more professional and act my age. I'm not a little kid anymore and I will stop posting 240+ hour model forecasts anymore. I will be more nicer, listen to people better,and stop being so rude, annoying, and mean to folks. I'm human and I make mistakes. I sorry Taz for all I do and everyone here at wunderground. I hope that this will be a new start for us and hope to spend many years here. So let's get back to weather and have a good time. And just let me know when I mess up at anytime. Just email me if that is so. Thanks and have a good day. God bless you guys and I love you.
Quoting 169. StormTrackerScott:



I still have it on my computer.

Someone told me they can still access it in ie9. I have less than no idea how that's possible...
Despite the rain and wind still had a great Mother's day..

Still pouring here but hopefully this is the last heavy rain band and adios Ana..

a little nugget from the NWS, Wilmington, NC in their latest discussion

ANA IS THE ONLY NAME THAT HAS BEEN USED FOR 7 STORMS IN THE
ATLANTIC WITHOUT ANY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE OTHER
BEING BERYL WITH 6 STORMS.


Have a good night..
Quoting 179. LAbonbon:

Someone told me they can still access it in ie9. I have less than no idea how that's possible...


That is my browser at home however at work I have the new version or WU.
Quoting 180. ncstorm:
ANA IS THE ONLY NAME THAT HAS BEEN USED FOR 7 STORMS IN THE
ATLANTIC WITHOUT ANY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE OTHER
BEING BERYL WITH 6 STORMS.


Have a good night..


LOL, poor ANA
Quoting 180. ncstorm:

Despite the rain and wind still had a great Mother's day..

Still pouring here but hopefully this is the last heavy rain band and adios Ana..

a little nugget from the NWS, Wilmington, NC in their latest discussion

ANA IS THE ONLY NAME THAT HAS BEEN USED FOR 7 STORMS IN THE
ATLANTIC WITHOUT ANY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE OTHER
BEING BERYL WITH 6 STORMS.


Have a good night..


I want to say Arlene is on that list, there's been a couple Tropical Storm Arlene's.
Quoting 140. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


everything


change one thing changes everything
Ok, Thanks.
Ana


Station 41037
CORMP
Location: 33.988N 77.363W
Date: Mon, 11 May 2015 02:00:00 UTC
Winds: SSW (200°) at 33.0 kt gusting to 38.9 kt
Air Temperature: 66.9 F
Water Temperature: 72.3 F
So you guys who thinks that the season will be like 2004,2002,or 2009.
Quoting 183. win1gamegiantsplease:



I want to say Arlene is on that list, there's been a couple Tropical Storm Arlene's.

The 1963 version of Arlene was a Category 2 hurricane, and the 1967 and 1987 versions were Category 1 hurricanes.
Quoting 187. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The 1963 version of Arlene was a Category 2 hurricane, and the 1967 and 1987 versions were Category 1 hurricanes.


Ya got me, good research TAwx13
Quoting 174. TropicalAnalystwx13:


My yard and my shoes beg to differ.


You've seen more interesting tropical action in the last 10 months than I have in the last decade and I live in Florida. Arthur, Ana.. Enjoy it! :P
Quoting 186. HurricaneAndre:

So you guys who thinks that the season will be like 2004,2002,or 2009.


This year will likely be comparable to last year and 2009 in terms of activity, imo.

I enjoyed those two years, Bill, Fred, Edouard, and Gonzalo were all enjoyable majors to track.
Quoting 186. HurricaneAndre:

So you guys who thinks that the season will be like 2004,2002,or 2009.


2004 and 2002 yeah 2009 Umm heh meh nah maybe meh
ATL: TD Ana Last NHC Adv. Issued at 5pm. Still has a center and is intact. But, it will soon become extra-tropical.

West Pack: Dolphin will go through gradual strengthening as it is trying its best to circulate all its convection around its center. With advantageous conditions for major intensification after 72 hours from now, it could be a significant typhoon later this week. Therefore, it could be one to watch closely.

Noul should be slowly weakening as it may effect some Japaneese Islands as it moves Northeastward during the next few days.

Read the full post here


hey this is actually some pretty good rain for SoCal in May
Quoting 193. nwobilderburg:



hey this is actually some pretty good rain for SoCal in May


Dude, up here in Northern Nevada, the rain has been a freaking lifesaver for our pasture. Also darned glad we sold off most of our goats. Also nice to see the honeybees bringing pollen back to the hive - at one point I was afraid I'd be feeding them all summer. I'm hoping SoCal actually gets some rain.

(Oh, 5 day forecast shows more precip headed our way. What with the breakage in TCID's Lewis T line, our irrigation has been delayed, *and* cut down from 20% to 17%. Rain rain rain, keep it coming!)
Quoting 186. HurricaneAndre:

So you guys who thinks that the season will be like 2004,2002,or 2009.


I hope it isn't like 2004 or 2005...

What are the chances that TS Dolphin will be affecting the Philippines? The timing looks bad, as I'm planning to be flying over there next Wednesday (Philippine time.)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN (1507)
15:00 PM JST May 11 2015
==========================
Near Marshall Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Dolphin (998 hPa) located at 9.8N 160.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Gale Force Winds
============
180 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 10.5N 157.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Near Marshall Islands
48 HRS: 10.5N 151.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Truk (Chuuk) waters
72 HRS: 10.7N 145.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Marianas Islands

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #71
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NOUL (1506)
15:00 AM JST May 11 2015
==========================
In Bashi Channel

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Noul (950 hPa) located at 21.6N 122.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
45 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
100 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 29.8N 132.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Shikoku [Kōchi Prefecture]
48 HRS: 40.0N 147.2E - Extratropical Low near Iwate Prefecture
Quoting 196. vbscript2:

What are the chances that TS Dolphin will be affecting the Philippines? The timing looks bad, as I'm planning to be flying over there next Wednesday (Philippine time.)


Fortunately, TS Dolphin will not have any impact on the Philippines.




even the following System looks to follow Dolphin's path.


Btw, this is awesome.
Florida Joins West Coast States With Record Heat, April 2015 NOAA Report Says

The first four months of 2015 were the warmest on record in three western states, while Florida had its hottest April on record, according to a just-released report from NOAA.

Alaska, Arizona and California each shattered their record warmest January through April period in 2015. Nevada, Oregon and Utah experienced their second warmest opening four months of any year. Five other western states chalked up a top 10 warmest January through April:

- Washington, Idaho, Wyoming: Third warmest
- Colorado: Fifth warmest
- Montana: Sixth warmest

California topped its previous record warm January through April set one year ago by 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit, an impressive feat considering temperature data averaged over many locations statewide makes a few tenths of a degree difference significant.


Link
Idaho Drought: High and Dry

Boise • Most of Idaho is now in drought, according to federal agencies, but only extreme Southern Idaho is in the same boat as California and other western states. But next year could be grim if Idaho depletes the cushion in its reservoirs.

Ron Abramovich usually dons snowshoes to walk through three feet of snow and more to measure the season-ending snowpack at 6,100-foot-high More’s Creek Summit east of Idaho City.

This year, the trek to the measuring site was over scant snow. Abramovich, last week in his snowshoes, had to climb over fallen branches, across flowing streams and over dry topsoil.

“It looked like June 1st instead of May 1st,” said Abramovich, water supply specialist for the U.S. Conservation Service.


Link
world tour surfing deals with winds and seas but now in brazil they have to deal with water pollution. yes there is poop in the water and its bad. in my travels throughout latin america they have the same problems. lack of proper septic systems.
203. yoboi
Quoting 175. hydrus:

To me, that is a wonderful thing. Its nice to go outside without the smell of death and broken trees. To walk on the ground without getting soaked above the knees. And go in the house with my refrigerator and A.C. crankin...I can dig it....:)



You remember 2005, right? Hurricane Katrina? So many hurricanes that the National Hurricane Center ran out of names? The next year, Al Gore blamed it all on humanity’s carbon dioxide emissions in his movie, An Inconvenient Truth.

You might not remember that 2 years ago news reports also were reporting we hit record CO2, at 400 ppm. So why the latest report regarding 400 ppm? Well, because now we’ve exceeded 400 ppm, rather than just hitting 400 ppm.

The minor distinction illustrates an important fact: it takes a huge amount of CO2 emissions to raise the atmospheric CO2 concentration by even a tiny amount.

It took nearly a century to raise atmospheric CO2 concentrations from 3 parts per 10,000 to 4 parts per 10,000. That’s right, nearly a century to add 1 molecule of CO2 to every 10,000 molecules of atmosphere.

Most people aren’t aware that the atmospheric concentration would have gone up twice as fast if not for the fact that nature loves the stuff. No matter how fast we produce it with our cars and planes and power plants, nature sucks up half of it, like a starving dog that has just been fed dinner.

In fact, without CO2 life as we know it on Earth would not exist.

More CO2 has led to global greening. Increased agricultural productivity. It probably has contributed to recent warming, in my professional opinion, but that warming has been relatively benign, with no observable increase in severe weather.

Link



Lots of tornado warnings flying around SE Texas last night. I wish the best for this region and pray they get some relief soon from these seemingly nonstop severe thunderstorms.
Quoting 203. yoboi:

*NOISE*


This is where somebody posts the graphic of the CO2 PPM over the past bazillion years, where the moving average breaks through the top of the graph like a laser. I feel like I'm stuck in some sort of strange Dr. Masters' blog AGW-discussion Groundhog Day.
ONI for April came it @ 0.79C. Below is the weekly values by the CPC. Yikes!

Nino 4 @ 1.2C
Nino 3.4 @ 1.0C
Nino 3 @ 1.2C
Nino 1&2 2.3C


SOI tanking like never before and there are signs in the models that we could hit -60 on the daily value by day 3 or 4 as that is when the ridge is forecast to be at 1041 instead of the 1035 right now,

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 11 May 2015
Average for last 30 days -8.87
Average for last 90 days -6.55
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -40.43

Rainy Season started yesterday across S FL today it starts in C FL.



Latest runs of the CFSv2 now at 4C. @ hydrus you asked for a graph showing when this beast peaks and it appears to peak in November then falls back off by this time next year.

Why are the cyclones in the Pacific so intense compared to the Atlantic and East Pacific hurricanes?
A pathetic storm such as Ana surely got plenty of attention, but it seems that all the hype is finally over. It actually got much more attention than Noul, who had the potential to become a super typhoon all along and became a cat 5 in the end. Come to think of it, all american hurricanes are overrated...or perhaps I should say the typhoons are underrated, as they are only measured by Dvorak estimates. Hurricane Wilma of 2005 is supposed to be more intense than typhoon Haiyan in 2013? Nah, I don t buy that. The truth is that Northern Atlantic is pathetic compared to northwestern pacific, which is for some reason unacceptable for americans, bear with it.
Quoting 210. NoobDave:

A pathetic storm such as Ana surely got plenty of attention, but it seems that all the hype is finally over. It actually got much more attention than Noul, who had the potential to become a super typhoon all along and became a cat 5 in the end. Come to think of it, all american hurricanes are overrated...or perhaps I should say the typhoons are underrated, as they are only measured by Dvorak estimates. Hurricane Wilma of 2005 is supposed to be more intense than typhoon Haiyan in 2013? Nah, I don t buy that. The truth is that Northern Atlantic is pathetic compared to northwestern pacific, which is for some reason unacceptable for americans, bear with it.


Ana got more attention than Noul from whom? Don't be naive. If you are watching American media, of course Ana is going to get more attention than Noul. It's in America. Unless, of course, you are saying that Phillippine media spent more time and attention on Ana. In that case, your argument would be valid.
212. MahFL
Quoting 209. LovetoaMuse:

Why are the cyclones in the Pacific so intense compared to the Atlantic and East Pacific hurricanes?


Several reasons, the Pacific is bigger, the water is warmer and the depth of the warm water is deeper.
Quoting 203. yoboi:


If you are going to quote Dr. Roy Spencer, then you should credit him. It's common courtesy. {EDIT: I didn't see the little blue link you included. I apologize for my error.}

Of course, that's balderdash anyway --as Spencer's own UAH data set makes clear.

214. MahFL
Quoting 211. LongIslandBeaches:



Ana got more attention than Noul from whom? Don't be naive. If you are watching American media, of course Ana is going to get more attention than Noul. It's in America. Unless, of course, you are saying that Phillippine media spent more time and attention on Ana. In that case, your argument would be valid.


This blog is mostly American centric as the boards creator is American. Also the Philippines gets hit by 20 cyclones per year, Florida eg does not.
wilma was a cat 5 when moving over cancun. how come it did not flatten it?
Quoting 178. HurricaneAndre:

Ok you guys I will stay on wunderground. I'll try to act more professional and act my age. I'm not a little kid anymore and I will stop posting 240+ hour model forecasts anymore. I will be more nicer, listen to people better,and stop being so rude, annoying, and mean to folks. I'm human and I make mistakes. I sorry Taz for all I do and everyone here at wunderground. I hope that this will be a new start for us and hope to spend many years here. So let's get back to weather and have a good time. And just let me know when I mess up at anytime. Just email me if that is so. Thanks and have a good day. God bless you guys and I love you.

Hi Andre.
This is simply a blog of opinions. You don't have to apologize for having your own.
Post all the weather related stuff you want....and dance like no one is watching.
Put your family first...this blog does not deserve such a high pedastal. IMO


Have a great day all!
Aussie's are set to declare El-Nino tomorrow it appears. Finally as Nino 3.4 has been at 1.0C for several weeks now.
Quoting 215. islander101010:

wilma was a cat 5 when moving over cancun. how come it did not flatten it?

It tried.
No end in sight to the sinking air over Australia. SOI is going to continue its downward spiral for atleast another 2 weeks. We could be heading for some strongly negative values on the 30 day average coming up.

Noul does not look like a hurricane, nevermind 110 mph hurricane with gusts to 130 mph..



Quoting 203. yoboi:




You remember 2005, right? Hurricane Katrina? So many hurricanes that the National Hurricane Center ran out of names? The next year, Al Gore blamed it all on humanity%u2019s carbon dioxide emissions in his movie, An Inconvenient Truth

What Al Gore said re Katrina is correct, and he said not she was caused by CO2 rise:
---
Now I'm going to show you, recently released, the actual ocean temperature. Of course when the oceans get warmer, that causes stronger storms. We have seen in the last couple of years, a lot of big hurricanes. Hurricanes Jean, Francis and Ivan were among them. In the same year we had that string of big hurricanes; we also set an all time record for tornadoes in the United States. Japan again didn't get as much attention in our news media, but they set an all time record for typhoons. The previous record was seven. Here are all ten of the ones they had in 2004.

The science textbooks that have to be re-written because they say it is impossible to have a hurricane in the South Atlantic. It was the same year that the first one that ever hit Brazil. The summer of 2005 is one for the books. The first one was Emily that socked into Yucatan. Then Hurricane Dennis came along and it did a lot of damage, including to the oil industry. This is the largest oil platform in the world after Dennis went through. This one was driven into the bridge at Mobile.

And then of course came Katrina. It is worth remembering that when it hit Florida it was a Category 1, but it killed a lot of people and caused billions of dollars worth of damage. And then, what happened? Before it hit New Orleans, it went over warmer water. As the water temperature increases, the wind velocity increases and the moisture content increases. And you'll see Hurricane Katrina form over Florida. And then as it comes into the Gulf over warm water it becomes stronger and stronger and stronger. Look at that Hurricane's eye. And of course the consequences were so horrendous; there are no words to describe it.

How in god's name could that happen here? There had been warnings that hurricanes would get stronger. There were warnings that this hurricane, days before it hit, would breach the levies and cause the kind of damage that it ultimately did cause. And one question that we, as a people, need to decide is how we react when we hear warnings from the leading scientists in the world.
(from transcript 'An Inconvenient Truth')
---

So now, these past couple years, all basins sport record cyclones and/or very strong cyclones in off-season. Including, already, this very year.
In fact by now there is no typhoon season anymore, they go year round and can achieve cat 5 status year round: get used to it.
One basin lucked out after 2005: the Atlantic. But just wait a bit.
223. yoboi
Quoting 213. Misanthroptimist:


If you are going to quote Dr. Roy Spencer, then you should credit him. It's common courtesy. {EDIT: I didn't see the little blue link you included. I apologize for my error.}

Of course, that's balderdash anyway --as Spencer's own UAH data set makes clear.




With the data set that you provided....Looks like No warming for the past 18 or 19 years....but the point Dr. Roy was making... sure there has been a little bit of warming over many years but it's not really bad....In fact CO2 has caused global greening...
Quoting 215. islander101010:

wilma was a cat 5 when moving over cancun. how come it did not flatten it?
A lot of Cancun was not rebuilt after Gilbert..Another massive cat 5...And there have been other cat 5,s to hit the region.
210. NoobDave
8:33 AM EDT on May 11, 2015

Good Morning. I see you just joined the Blog two days ago. Let us clue you in. We are weather enthusiasts who focus on US events (Blog based here) but clearly discuss notable weather events around the world of interests (and other natural disasters and events). Americans "bear" with the Atlantic because it is a matter of geography and the Atlantic season affects us the most in the summer-fall during the peak of the Cape Verde season (with the waves producing the most powerful storms originating on the African continent).

There is no dispute that the Pacific basin produces the most tropical storms in the world as it is the largest ocean basin in the world; that is just a function of nature and many West Pacific typhoons are some of the most incredible forces of nature to observe in the world. On the other hand, while Atlantic storms, generally, do not generate the overall numbers and consistent intensities that we often see in the Pacific, a few bad ones come through and cause lots of death and destruction. perhaps Katrina and the thousands of lives lost (as opposed to Wilma) would be a better example of a very destructive Atlantic storm.

Tropical storms span the globe and each basin has it's own unique characteristics; will also note that low grade tropical storms (and low Cat hurricanes) are often a good source of drought busting and I remember several instances where such Gulf Coast/Florida storms were actually welcome after a drought ridden summer. That is a good kind of "bearing with it".
Quoting 210. NoobDave:

.
I am getting a feeling here I don't why but something seems not right here for some reason maybe iam wrong I don't think you are posting just to be troll like I hope but we shall see


SSTs in the Caribbean have really plummeted lately.
Calamity knows no borders.

Only men do.
230. yoboi
Quoting 222. cRRKampen:


What Al Gore said re Katrina is correct, and he said not she was caused by CO2 rise:
---


Now I'm going to show you, recently released, the actual ocean temperature. Of course when the oceans get warmer, that causes stronger storms. We have seen in the last couple of years, a lot of big hurricanes. Hurricanes Jean, Francis and Ivan were among them. In the same year we had that string of big hurricanes; we also set an all time record for tornadoes in the United States. Japan again didn't get as much attention in our news media, but they set an all time record for typhoons. The previous record was seven. Here are all ten of the ones they had in 2004.

The science textbooks that have to be re-written because they say it is impossible to have a hurricane in the South Atlantic. It was the same year that the first one that ever hit Brazil. The summer of 2005 is one for the books. The first one was Emily that socked into Yucatan. Then Hurricane Dennis came along and it did a lot of damage, including to the oil industry. This is the largest oil platform in the world after Dennis went through. This one was driven into the bridge at Mobile.

And then of course came Katrina. It is worth remembering that when it hit Florida it was a Category 1, but it killed a lot of people and caused billions of dollars worth of damage. And then, what happened? Before it hit New Orleans, it went over warmer water. As the water temperature increases, the wind velocity increases and the moisture content increases. And you'll see Hurricane Katrina form over Florida. And then as it comes into the Gulf over warm water it becomes stronger and stronger and stronger. Look at that Hurricane's eye. And of course the consequences were so horrendous; there are no words to describe it.

How in god's name could that happen here? There had been warnings that hurricanes would get stronger. There were warnings that this hurricane, days before it hit, would breach the levies and cause the kind of damage that it ultimately did cause. And one question that we, as a people, need to decide is how we react when we hear warnings from the leading scientists in the world.
---

So now, these past couple years, all basins sport record cyclones and/or very strong cyclones in off-season. Including, already, this very year.
In fact by now there is no typhoon season anymore, they go year round and can achieve cat 5 status year round: get used to it.
One basin lucked out after 2005: the Atlantic. But just wait a bit.


What happened is very clear.....

We've also saved a copy of this animation covering the period October 2005-October 2006. One can see at the beginning of the animation the Loop Current Eddy that fueled Katrina and Rita sitting in the Gulf of Mexico south of Louisiana. This eddy moves slowly west-southwest to a point off the Texas coast by November, where it gradually dissipates. A small Loop Current Eddy breaks off eight months later in March, and a large one just four months later, in July. The July 2006 eddy gets temporarily re-absorbed in September, then breaks free again by October.

Link
Havana established its absolute heat record last April 26, with 37 Celsius degrees. For more details you can see my post about it on the following Link
Quoting 228. tampabaymatt:



SSTs in the Caribbean have really plummeted lately.


Has to balance out somewhere as Nino 1&2 is now up to an incredible 2.3C. That has got to be a record for the earliest reading that high this early in May across Nino 1&2.

Quoting 223. yoboi:



With the data set that you provided....Looks like No warming for the past 18 or 19 years....but the point Dr. Roy was making... sure there has been a little bit of warming over many years but it's not really bad....In fact CO2 has caused global greening...


I wouldn't say that given the increase in desertification and droughts becoming much more common and intense in places...


Yikes!
Quoting 223. yoboi:



With the data set that you provided....Looks like No warming for the past 18 or 19 years....but the point Dr. Roy was making... sure there has been a little bit of warming over many years but it's not really bad....In fact CO2 has caused global greening...

What it looks like to you is of relevance only to you. But it has indeed warmed over that time period. If we cherry pick the data from 1998 to present...well, there is still warming. However, if we start in 1999 the warming trend is readily apparent.



Statistical trickery won't make the warming go away.

Please link to the science that says that CO2 has caused "global greening."
236. yoboi
Quoting 235. Misanthroptimist:


What it looks like to you is of relevance only to you. But it has indeed warmed over that time period. If we cherry pick the data from 1998 to present...well, there is still warming. However, if we start in 1999 the warming trend is readily apparent.



Statistical trickery won't make the warming go away.

Please link to the science that says that CO2 has caused "global greening."


[1] Satellite observations reveal a greening of the globe over recent decades. The role in this greening of the “CO2 fertilization” effect—the enhancement of photosynthesis due to rising CO2 levels—is yet to be established. The direct CO2 effect on vegetation should be most clearly expressed in warm, arid environments where water is the dominant limit to vegetation growth. Using gas exchange theory, we predict that the 14% increase in atmospheric CO2 (1982–2010) led to a 5 to 10% increase in green foliage cover in warm, arid environments. Satellite observations, analyzed to remove the effect of variations in precipitation, show that cover across these environments has increased by 11%. Our results confirm that the anticipated CO2 fertilization effect is occurring alongside ongoing anthropogenic perturbations to the carbon cycle and that the fertilization effect is now a significant land surface process.

Link

Quoting 236. yoboi:

"The role in this greening of the “CO2 fertilization” effect—the enhancement of photosynthesis due to rising CO2 levels—is yet to be established. "

Let me know when they remove the "is yet to be established". Thanks.

Greening on its own isn't necessarily a good thing. A kudzu-covered world doesn't sound especially appealing to me.
At least 10 people were unaccounted for early Monday after a tornado roared through a city east of Dallas in the middle of the night and caused extensive damage, authorities said. Three people were confirmed dead in Texas and Arkansas.

In the city of Van, Texas, officers with search dogs went door to door looking for people trapped in dozens of homes that were damaged or reduced to splinters. Cars were crushed, and the windows of an elementary school were blown out.

"The people you hung out with a few days ago don't have homes anymore," Alex Lopez told NBC DFW.

Link
239. yoboi
Quoting 237. Misanthroptimist:



"The role in this greening of the “CO2 fertilization” effect—the enhancement of photosynthesis due to rising CO2 levels—is yet to be established. "

Let me know when they remove the "is yet to be established". Thanks.

Greening on its own isn't necessarily a good thing. A kudzu-covered world doesn't sound especially appealing to me.


CO2 is used in greenhouses.....I don't think they pump it in there for the aroma....With the increase with CO2 the global food supply has increased to feed an increasing global population....Have a great day....
Quoting 232. StormTrackerScott:



Has to balance out somewhere as Nino 1&2 is now up to an incredible 2.3C. That has got to be a record for the earliest reading that high this early in May across Nino 1&2.





with nino 1 and 2 at 2.3 that is now or vary closet too strong EL nino for that area right
So scott is predicting ultra el nino now?
242. MahFL
Quoting 238. WaterWitch11:

At least 10 people were unaccounted for early Monday after a tornado roared through a city east of Dallas ...


Van is a town in TX not a city.
Quoting 239. yoboi:



CO2 is used in greenhouses.....I don't think they pump it in there for the aroma....With the increase with CO2 the global food supply has increased to feed an increasing global population....Have a great day....

...and they fertilize...and water...and otherwise control the environment. In the great outdoors, plants won't have that advantage. You're mixing greenhouse grown tomatoes with kudzu. Nobody needs to see that. lol
Quoting 241. NoobDave:

So scott is predicting ultra el nino now?



stop ok this day to day picking on scott needs too stop
Quoting 244. Tazmanian:




stop ok this day to day picking on scott needs too stop


I am not picking up on him, I always read his comments regarding el nino and his arguments with fellow bloggers who predict moderate nino. It s pretty funny.
Quoting 241. NoobDave:

So scott is predicting ultra el nino now?


No, he posted a model run that showed 4C anomalies. I didn't see anything that showed he predicted a "ultra el nino".
Quoting 232. StormTrackerScott:



Has to balance out somewhere as Nino 1&2 is now up to an incredible 2.3C. That has got to be a record for the earliest reading that high this early in May across Nino 1&2.




Startling numbers but the weird thing is that the weather isn't acting like El Niño right now - especially a strong one. Dry in Florida and California, multi day severe weather and tornado outbreak in tornado alley and a rather strong tropical storm making landfall in the carolinas in May. Something doesn't seem right.
pssssst'

April CO2

403.26 ppm
Quoting 239.





you know what else is used in greenhouses? temperature control.

"You're mixing greenhouse grown tomatoes with kudzu."

LOL - sometimes this blog comes up with some real gems.
We are firmly in moderate El-Nino now. 2015 ahead of the pack right now.

5/11/2015


5/12/2014


5/12/1997
Yoboi - Global Greening? How does that account for the new great desert of California? It could just be that the news is picking on areas that are going bad - so where are the areas going crazy in green department? Anyone care to make a guess on what California will look like if the current pattern hold for just another 7 years. I have read predictions it could be up to a 20 year event.

Apparently the CO2 has pushed out all the oxygen in some legislative areas of the world causing irrational thinking and behavior too.

Patrap - How long until we break 500 ppm? Don't things start to get interesting around 1000 ppm?
Quoting 234. tampabaymatt:



Yikes!


I'd be more upset if this were July. Departures like this in May just speed up my Central MD garden. But starting in mid June, positive temperature anomalies are correlated with lower yields and poorer quality of almost everything I grow except sweetpotatoes and melons (tomatoes, corn, beans, squash, peppers.. all are worse in hot summers). In a less hot summer here I can get lettuce all summer and broccoli maintains quality until August. But normally lettuce is just May-July 10 and Sept 20-Christmas here and Broccoli is only good in June and Oct-Dec.

We had just over an inch of precipitation in our gauge after 24 hours of rain/snow mix. Location: 10 miles north west of Mclaughlin , South Dakota. Great moisture !
Quoting 253. Dakster:

Apparently the CO2 has pushed out all the oxygen in some legislative areas of the world causing irrational thinking and behavior too.


Well, that and, I suspect, math salts.
Quoting 253. Dakster:

Yoboi - Global Greening? How does that account for the new great desert of California? It could just be that the news is picking on areas that are going bad - so where are the areas going crazy in green department? Anyone care to make a guess on what California will look like if the current pattern hold for just another 7 years. I have read predictions it could be up to a 20 year event.

Apparently the CO2 has pushed out all the oxygen in some legislative areas of the world causing irrational thinking and behavior too.

Patrap - How long until we break 500 ppm? Don't things start to get interesting around 1000 ppm?


Well, I'm 55.5 yrs old.

When I was Born in Jan 1960 the CO2 ppm was 315 ppm,

Thats a 85-88 ppm rise in 55 years.



So if we burn what's left in the ground ...

well, glad I'll be a memory.

What some have been chirping about is still true today.

All the climate modeling on the next 100 years has underplayed the actuals observed.

This is the anthropocene.

This not the atmosphere of my yute'.
Doesn't the rise in CO2 go up exponentially?

You might be around for 500 PPM...

Misanthroptimist: Do you mean bath salts?
Humans have never seen a Atmosphere this CO2 laden in all our History.

And that spans a few Interglacial cycles.

See, their wern't many Mammoths drilling oil and burning coal last we checked.

Did we not think all this was gonna snap back on us one day?




O they knew.

They know today.

We've been sold down the RIver for what?

A century or 2 of easy living.

Memphis to Hong Kong has a much heavier price than the coach fare.'


This archive may survive the future.

And to them I am eternally sorry.




In 2011, alarms went off for a new Dust Bowl in OKlahoma. News Flash. It didn't happen.
Quoting 223. yoboi:



With the data set that you provided....Looks like No warming for the past 18 or 19 years....but the point Dr. Roy was making... sure there has been a little bit of warming over many years but it's not really bad....In fact CO2 has caused global greening...


Plenty of other wrong statements, as usual-- here's the trend in the UAH dataset over the last 18 years:

Quoting 259. Dakster:

Doesn't the rise in CO2 go up exponentially?

You might be around for 500 PPM...

Misanthroptimist: Do you mean bath salts?


Looking at the graph, I'll make dat easily.

The posts may be a tad repetitive, and Ill nap more prolly'....

Ill still be younger than Grothar by 2 eons.

264. jpsb
Is it still winter in the N.H?

Quoting 259. Dakster:

Doesn't the rise in CO2 go up exponentially?

You might be around for 500 PPM...

Misanthroptimist: Do you mean bath salts?

No, I mean the number games that people play to show that "there hasn't been any warming." I prefer math salts as the explanation to the other possibilities. :-)
This is about as classic of a +PMM (Pacific Meridional Mode) signature as you'll ever see, check out the anomalous cross equatorial vector wind anomalies originating all the way from deep into the extratropical southern hemisphere. The +PMM has certainly contributed to what was likely the strongest winter +PDO stint since the end of the last multidecadal warm era in the 1990s...







This +PMM regime is so strong that it has completely dislodged the anomalous westerly surface currents & lower tropospheric wind anomalies completely off the equator, which may prove problematic for the intensification of the ongoing El Nino if this persists since they are not being efficiently directed into the Equatorial Counter Current.



The U850 anomalies are robust this year, however, despite the high frequency parade of CCKWs that has traversed the Pacific, with 4 passes since the beginning of March, we are still lagging behind 1987-88 & 1997-98 in this department...



Mar 1-May 8 1987, 1997, & this year's 850mb Equatorial Pacific zonal wind anomalies respectively.






Quoting 264. jpsb:

Is it still winter in the N.H?


Well, given that temps will reach the mid-80's today and tomorrow here in New York, I am going to venture an estimate and say, "no." I can't recall the last time we had two consecutive days of mid-80s temps during the winter.
Quoting 264. jpsb:

Is it still winter in the N.H?



Nope. But it's not far removed. Maximum ice extent and area usually occur in late March/early April in the Arctic. As a matter of fact, the Arctic sea ice currently is very low for this time of year.
Quoting 263. Patrap:



Looking at the graph, I'll make dat easily.

The posts may be a tad repetitive, and Ill nap more prolly'....

Ill still be younger than Grothar by 2 eons.


More....He predates the known Universe.....considerably...
Quoting 264. jpsb:

Is it still winter in the N.H?


Maybe so. But then again, NH sea ice extent is the second lowest it's ever been on this date, and, in fact, there's currently more than half a million square kilometers less Arctic sea ice now than there was on this same date back in 2012, the year of the record melt out. That's an area the size of Arizona and Nevada combined.

Yikes...
Quoting 268. Misanthroptimist:


Nope. But it's not far removed. Maximum ice extent and area usually occur in early April in the Arctic. As a matter of fact, the Arctic sea ice currently is very low for this time of year.


Not to mention -- there's clearly something wrong with that graphic that got posted. As far as I'm aware, there wasn't snow on the ground in Michigan last week...
Quoting 266. Webberweather53:



How does the following play into all of that, Webber?



We've added a lot of heat to the oceans since 1998.
Quoting 244. Tazmanian:




stop ok this day to day picking on scott needs too stop


Scott picks up extremes I miss. I have the unusual forecaster's fault of underestimating what will happen.
Texas seems to be getting hammered by all the rain. East central Florida could use some. Not high percentags coming in this week.
275. jpsb
Quoting 268. Misanthroptimist:


Nope. But it's not far removed. Maximum ice extent and area usually occur in late March/early April in the Arctic. As a matter of fact, the Arctic sea ice currently is very low for this time of year.


I am impressed with all the snow that is still on the ground. A few years ago Cryosphere Today (CT) starting imagining snow too. Here is a recent may to may comparison. CT is running a least a week behind lately :(

Quoting 271. schistkicker:



Not to mention -- there's clearly something wrong with that graphic that got posted. As far as I'm aware, there wasn't snow on the ground in Michigan last week...

That's right! CT was having some computer failure or something over the last couple of weeks. It's obviously out of date. Here's the uni-bremen map for today:
Quoting 257. Misanthroptimist:



Well, that and, I suspect, math salts.


Those losers, high on math salts running amok all over La Place.
Quoting 275. jpsb:



I am impressed with all the snow that is still on the ground. A few years ago Cryosphere Today (CT) starting imagining snow too. Here is a recent may to may comparison. CT is running a least a week behind lately :(



Northern hemisphere snow is pretty close to average:
Quoting 265. Misanthroptimist:


No, I mean the number games that people play to show that "there hasn't been any warming." I prefer math salts as the explanation to the other possibilities. :-)


Gotcha... I missed the play on words there... In my defense it is NOW only 7:20am here.
280. yoboi
Quoting 253. Dakster:

Yoboi - Global Greening? How does that account for the new great desert of California? It could just be that the news is picking on areas that are going bad - so where are the areas going crazy in green department? Anyone care to make a guess on what California will look like if the current pattern hold for just another 7 years. I have read predictions it could be up to a 20 year event.

Apparently the CO2 has pushed out all the oxygen in some legislative areas of the world causing irrational thinking and behavior too.

Patrap - How long until we break 500 ppm? Don't things start to get interesting around 1000 ppm?


California had droughts that lasted over 100 years before....The past present and future climate shows that.....Well California cycle is droughts.....Now some will jump up and down waving arms in erratic ways and say the population is greater now.....True but when does society decide to quit bailing out bad decisions to set up business???
We are firmly in moderate El-Nino now. 2015 ahead of the pack right now.


actually....if we want to be factual..........the above sentence would read

we are firmly in a weak el nino........

past weekly enso values have been in the moderate value, however the latest ONI was at .06 and for the ONI to be at moderate values...which is what would be needed for el nino to be classified as moderate next month..... this months average ENSO 3.4 region would have to be above 1.5.

there is a good chance we will see a moderate event, however that would be more likely in July or August
Quoting 275. jpsb:



I am impressed with all the snow that is still on the ground. A few years ago Cryosphere Today (CT) starting imagining snow too. Here is a recent may to may comparison. CT is running a least a week behind lately :(




There is absolutely no chance that 2015 snow cover graphic is correct. Maine and the Canadian Maritimes are not covered in snow I assure you. Nor is the entire state of Alaska, or all of Norway and Japan, or such a vast stretch of Russia, or almost all of Canada, or the Great Lakes region . . . .
Quoting 280. yoboi:



California had droughts that lasted over 100 years before....The past present and future climate shows that.....Well California cycle is droughts.....Now some will jump up and down waving arms in erratic ways and say the population is greater now.....True but when does society decide to quit bailing out bad decisions to set up business???

Everywhere has had droughts in the past. What's your point?
Quoting 278. Misanthroptimist:


Northern hemisphere snow is pretty close to average:



according to Rutgers, 2014 was 100,000 sq km below the 45-year average. current levels don't look very wintry either.
Quoting 266. Webberweather53:

This is about as classic of a +PMM (Pacific Meridional Mode) signature as you'll ever see, check out the anomalous cross equatorial vector wind anomalies originating all the way from deep into the extratropical southern hemisphere. The +PMM has certainly contributed to what was likely the strongest winter +PDO stint since the end of the last multidecadal warm era in the 1990s...







This +PMM regime is so strong that it has completely dislodged the anomalous westerly surface currents & lower tropospheric wind anomalies completely off the equator, which may prove problematic for the intensification of the ongoing El Nino if this persists since they are not being efficiently directed into the Equatorial Counter Current.



The U850 anomalies are robust this year, however, despite the high frequency parade of CCKWs that has traversed the Pacific, with 4 passes since the beginning of March, we are still lagging behind 1987-88 & 1997-98 in this department...



Mar 1-May 8 1987, 1997, & this year's 850mb Equatorial Pacific zonal wind anomalies respectively.









The CFS wind anomalies for late May are ominous and infact on par with 1997 hence why so many models are forecasting an historic El-Nino. I think Mother Nature is trying to tell us something because I've never seen so many models this robust with El-Nino I remember 1997 very well and models weren't this robust then as to now. Well see what happens as models show a peak in November.

The rise from April to May is insane! Again models are keying in on a series of very strong WWB coming the next few weeks which will likely propel us to Strong El-Nino status late next month. Also these SOI drops are going to be nuts this week as there are signs of a -50 drop on the daily SOI over the next few days & ESPI is rising fast again.

April


May

266. Webberweather53
3:05 PM GMT on May 11, 2015


I was wondering if this still could be a more Central Pacific episode. That said, if all that heat energy out there did make its way to South America, we would have a strong event.
Quoting 239. yoboi:

CO2 is used in greenhouses.....I don't think they pump it in there for the aroma....With the increase with CO2 the global food supply has increased to feed an increasing global population....
Yoboi, your claims are not based on science, and seem to be cherry picking and misrepresentations. I post this not as a personal dispute or bickering, but as a science based rebuttal to false information you have posted.

Although increased CO2 can lead to increased photosynthesis, other factors such as soil moisture, soil nutrients, and seasonal temperature patterns contribute to crop health and yield. Global crop yields are currently still increasing, but the rate of increase is declining, and is likely to go negative in the near future.

You tell us that you are a rice farmer in Louisiana, so I would expect you to know these things – things that I know as an layperson with a degree in ecology.

The greenhouse examples with elevated CO2 that you frequently repeat are controlled environments where all relevant factors are carefully balanced and optimized. In open field farming, this precision greenhouse-style balance is not achievable. So increased atmospheric CO2 in outdoor farming will increase plant carbohydrate mass, but reduce protein, nitrogen and trace mineral concentrations. (LINK)

So when you look at the details provided by the real experts in the field of agronomy and related sciences who are doing actual research, a much different picture emerges. Unfortunately, contrarian climate scientist Dr. Roy Spencer is being disingenuous when he gives his “professional opinion” because his profession is not agronomy, and he apparently has no clue about that field.

Reporting on a paper in the journal “Nature Climate Change” (LINK):

Every degree of rise in local temperature could result in around 40 million tonnes of global yield reduction in wheat, amounting to a loss of a quarter of current global wheat production. An international research consortium has calculated that the global wheat harvest is likely to be reduced by 6% per each degree Celsius of local temperature increase if no adaptation takes place. The wheat grain yield declines are predicted for most regions in the world.

Earlier studies on crop yields (from the same link):

Research from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis has warned that increased temperature and changing precipitation levels, along with the increased CO2 atmospheric concentration could lead to between an 18% decline in global caloric production from cropland to as much as a 3% increase by 2050.

Risk of a major slowdown in crop production over the next 20 years has also been indicated in studies done by researchers from Stanford University and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. A reduction in corn and wheat production will be 20 times higher than they would be without human-induced global warming.

The rate of increase in crop yields is slowing, especially in wheat, and changes in temperature and rainfall patterns could lead to food price rise between 3% and 84% by 2050, the report said.
Quoting 281. ricderr:

We are firmly in moderate El-Nino now. 2015 ahead of the pack right now.


actually....if we want to be factual..........the above sentence would read

we are firmly in a weak el nino........

past weekly enso values have been in the moderate value, however the latest ONI was at .06 and for the ONI to be at moderate values...which is what would be needed for el nino to be classified as moderate next month..... this months average ENSO 3.4 region would have to be above 1.5.

there is a good chance we will see a moderate event, however that would be more likely in July or August


ONI reading for April came in at 0.79C. Very strong atmospheric response to El-Nino ongoing across the Pacific hence why models are not playing around with this ENSO event.
Quoting 287. hydrus:


266. Webberweather53
3:05 PM GMT on May 11, 2015


I was wondering if this still could be a more Central Pacific episode. That said, if all that heat energy out there did make its way to South America, we would have a strong event.


2.3C reading already by the CPC for Nino 1&2 probably a record for so early in May. Should rise further over the coming weeks.

Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 2h 2 hours ago
850 mb wind anomalies (units of 1 SD) thru 5/21 showing a westerly wind burst spreading eastward across EPac #ElNino
jbsp - I wouldn't be impressed with the snow on the ground or "cover". It is the overall amount that it is important. As snow/ice melts it spreads out. And then of course if melting keeps going then all of a sudden you have an extreme loss in coverage.

For the first time in my life I personally witnessed how a darker color on the snow affects melt. We were walking in the spring up here across frozen shallow rivers. Brown and yellow leaves left over from the fall that were blown onto the surface of the ice had heated up from the sun enough that they melted down into the ice. I knew that a darker color would absorb more heat, but seeing even a lighter color do it really drove that point home with me.
Quoting 275. jpsb:



I am impressed with all the snow that is still on the ground. A few years ago Cryosphere Today (CT) starting imagining snow too. Here is a recent may to may comparison. CT is running a least a week behind lately :(




The snow cover looks so low in the 2011 map that it wouldn't surprise me if there were a trend towards reduced May snow cover in the northern hemisphere. Did you deliberately choose 2011 for the purpose of suggesting such a downward trend?
Here's the WWB moving east below. Stronger on forecast in a couple of weeks.

294. jpsb
Quoting 282. MaineGuy:



There is absolutely no chance that 2015 snow cover graphic is correct. Maine and the Canadian Maritimes are not covered in snow I assure you. Nor is the entire state of Alaska, or all of Norway and Japan, or such a vast stretch of Russia, or almost all of Canada, or the Great Lakes region . . . .

well the image was from last week, May 5th, but CT has been having problems so maybe the image is incorrect. As far as I know CT is the only place I get a global picture of ice and snow. If anyone has another reliable site please post a link. tia
ONI reading for April came in at 0.79C. Very strong atmospheric response to El-Nino ongoing across the Pacific hence why models are not playing around with this ENSO event.

you are correct...but the ONI is valued at a three month average of which the latest was 0.6
Quoting 294. jpsb:


well the image was from last week, May 5th, but CT has been having problems so maybe the image is incorrect. As far as I know CT is the only place I get a global picture of ice and snow. If anyone has another reliable site please post a link. tia


Link
Quoting 242. MahFL:



Van is a town in TX not a city.


might want to let the journalist who posted the story know that...if you want i could do it for you :)
Quoting 294. jpsb:


well the image was from last week, May 5th, but CT has been having problems so maybe the image is incorrect. As far as I know CT is the only place I get a global picture of ice and snow. If anyone has another reliable site please post a link. tia


A quick look at the snow cover for the United States and Southern Canada on the NWS website shows that low elevation snow pack is confined to the northern tip of the Gaspe Peninsula, NE and Eastern Quebec and Newfoundland. The exception to this is the current snow storm occurring over the Wyoming, Colorado, Dakotas area. High elevation snows are in the usual locations (Rockies, Sierra Nevada) and in the NE United States above 4,000 feet (which limits it to such a small geographical area that it doesn't even register on the map).
299. yoboi
Quoting 288. Xulonn:

Yoboi, your claims are not based on science, and seem to be cherry picking and misrepresentations. I post this not as a personal dispute or bickering, but as a science based rebuttal to false information you have posted.

Although increased CO2 can lead to increased photosynthesis, other factors such as soil moisture, soil nutrients, and seasonal temperature patterns contribute to crop health and yield. Global crop yields are currently still increasing, but the rate of increase is declining, and is likely to go negative in the near future.

You tell us that you are a rice farmer in Louisiana, so I would expect you to know these things – things that I know as an layperson with a degree in ecology.

The greenhouse examples with elevated CO2 that you frequently repeat are controlled environments where all relevant factors are carefully balanced and optimized. In open field farming, this precision greenhouse-style balance is not achievable. So increased atmospheric CO2 in outdoor farming will increase plant carbohydrate mass, but reduce protein, nitrogen and trace mineral concentrations. (LINK)

So when you look at the details provided by the real experts in the field of agronomy and related sciences who are doing actual research, a much different picture emerges. Unfortunately, contrarian climate scientist Dr. Roy Spencer is being disingenuous when he gives his “professional opinion” because his profession is not agronomy, and he apparently has no clue about that field.

Reporting on a paper in the journal “Nature Climate Change” (LINK):

Every degree of rise in local temperature could result in around 40 million tonnes of global yield reduction in wheat, amounting to a loss of a quarter of current global wheat production. An international research consortium has calculated that the global wheat harvest is likely to be reduced by 6% per each degree Celsius of local temperature increase if no adaptation takes place. The wheat grain yield declines are predicted for most regions in the world.

Earlier studies on crop yields (from the same link):

Research from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis has warned that increased temperature and changing precipitation levels, along with the increased CO2 atmospheric concentration could lead to between an 18% decline in global caloric production from cropland to as much as a 3% increase by 2050.

Risk of a major slowdown in crop production over the next 20 years has also been indicated in studies done by researchers from Stanford University and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. A reduction in corn and wheat production will be 20 times higher than they would be without human-induced global warming.

The rate of increase in crop yields is slowing, especially in wheat, and changes in temperature and rainfall patterns could lead to food price rise between 3% and 84% by 2050, the report said.



Thanks to the link that you provided that is full of maybe's if's could Possible etc....It is proven that with warming climate added CO2 the global food supply has increased....Your own research that you provided says yes we are at record crop levels....
It's been an active week for severe weather. The SPC has logged over 150 tornado reports so far this month. While this is undoubtedly inflated, it's safe to say several dozen tornadoes have touched down. Myself and others are trying our best to keep an accurate count over on Wikipedia. However, it is hard when WFOs don't issue public information statements or give full information for tornadoes, so bear with us.
301. yoboi
Quoting 283. Misanthroptimist:


Everywhere has had droughts in the past. What's your point?


Duration/frequency......
Quoting 272. Misanthroptimist:


How does the following play into all of that, Webber?



We've added a lot of heat to the oceans since 1998.


Unfortunately, the reliable ARGO record only goes back to 2004, but the vast majority of the re-distribution of heat into the oceans & even the atmosphere was released by the 1997-98 El Nino (since the beginning of the satellite record anyways). The global temperature response to the 1877-78 El Nino was way more extreme than what was observed in 1997-98. (Refer to Aceituno et al "The 1877-1878 El Nino episode: associated impacts in South America" (2009)
Link

I'm well aware of course that NINO 3.4 anomalies going back to the 19th century are available from several datasets, however these datasets usually only compare to a singular base period, which thereby doesn't account for the significant warming of the tropical Pacific since the mid-late 19th century and may result in a skewing of +ENSO events later in the record, & vis versa. Since the new ERSSTv4 dataset was released only several months ago & new literature was unveiled back on February, I have decided to reconstruct the Oceanic NINO Index back to 1870 (& 1890 in HADISST) utilizing the CPC's methodology of 30 yr moving average updated every 5 years using the new ERSSTv4 dataset, ERSSTv3b (currently being used by the CPC), HADISST, and Extended Kaplan SSTv2. Don't be surprised to see my first wunderblog on this over the coming weeks :) ...

Here is what the raw, unadjusted monthly NINO 3.4 data (1854-present) looks like w/ the new ERSSTv4 data. It appears very likely after applying the proper moving base period, 1877-78 will surpass 1997-98 as the strongest El Nino in this dataset...


I briefly touched base on what measurable & observed effect the multidecadal warming of the oceans (esp. the Indian Ocean) is having on ENSO & the TEJ in a post here a few months ago. In short, the Indian Ocean has warmed faster than the NINO regions of the Eq Pacific & this has resulted in increasing eastern hemisphere interference (particularly in the upper levels), with the entire anomalously displaced Walker Cell being shoved eastward & weakening relative to the E Hem/Africa, especially following the 1997-98 El Nino. Additionally, the IO warming appears to modulate the global temperature trends, w/ quasi-permanent upward step changes in temperature following El Nino events, while disproportionate & comparatively less significant cooling is observed in the subsequent La Ninas... Refer to this post I made @ Weather Advance back in March.

Link
Quoting 209. LovetoaMuse:

Why are the cyclones in the Pacific so intense compared to the Atlantic and East Pacific hurricanes?
That's actually a good question, the Pacific is the largest ocean, and West Pacific typhoons have more ocean in front of them to work with as well as higher ocean heat content and sea surface temperature than the East Pacific and Atlantic. The East Pacific has a stable airmass as soon as you go 30 North latitude and cooler waters, due in part to the cold California current, which promotes weakening. The Atlantic is the smaller ocean and you have to deal with the Saharan Air Layer, mountainous terrain of the some of the Greater Antilles islands, and this year because of El Nino , we will be dealing with cooler sea surface temperatures in the main development region. The prevailing westerlies will also be a problem as that will be suppressed south due to a more active subtropical jet stream, which will bring strong westerly windshear to that region. Also, the West Pacific has no season bounds, the season is continuous over there.
Quoting 299. yoboi:

It is proven that with warming climate added CO2 the global food supply has increased.

No, it is not proven - and for more than one reason.
Quoting 251. LAbonbon:

"You're mixing greenhouse grown tomatoes with kudzu."

LOL - sometimes this blog comes up with some real gems.
Maybe put the geneticists on it -- a hybrid of tomatoes with kudzu would grow fast and, hopefully, produce lots of tomatoes before smothering the greenhouse!
Quoting 302. Webberweather53:

Refer to this post I made @ Weather Advance back in March.

Link

Thanks for that.
Quoting 301. yoboi:



Duration/frequency......

...and what comes after your double ellipsis?
308. yoboi
Quoting 270. Neapolitan:

Maybe so. But then again, NH sea ice extent is the second lowest it's ever been on this date, and, in fact, there's currently more than half a million square kilometers less Arctic sea ice now than there was on this same date back in 2012, the year of the record melt out. That's an area the size of Arizona and Nevada combined.

Yikes...


Photo gallery of damage out of Van TX. 2 Confirmed dead.

http://www.focusinon.me/News/51015-Van-Area-Storm -Damage-by/49194952_WmGvgp#!i=4050235649&k=t42QxQC

I live in Tyler and have friends that live in Van so it's a pretty scary situation.
Quoting 303. GTstormChaserCaleb:

That's actually a good question, the Pacific is the largest ocean, and West Pacific typhoons have more ocean in front of them to work with as well as higher ocean heat content and sea surface temperature than the East Pacific and Atlantic. The East Pacific has a stable airmass as soon as you go 30 North latitude and cooler waters, due in part to the cold California current, which promotes weakening. The Atlantic is the smaller ocean and you have to deal with the Saharan Air Layer, mountainous terrain of the some of the Greater Antilles islands, and this year because of El Nino , we will be dealing with cooler sea surface temperatures in the main development region. The prevailing westerlies will also be a problem as that will be suppressed south due to a more active subtropical jet stream, which will bring strong westerly windshear to that region. Also, the West Pacific has no season bounds, the season is continuous over there.
The Pacific is the perfect cyclone machine. Absolutely amazing how warm the water is and to a great depth. I am glad we do not have seasons like the West Pacific. There would likely be fewer cities on the coast than we have now.
With the El Nino going on. Do you think the south will have an epic winter this year.
312. txjac
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1108 am CDT Monday may 11 2015

Update...
forecast update to include Flash Flood Watch.

&&

Discussion...
Flash Flood Watch now in effect for the northern half of southeast Texas.
Watch runs to Tuesday afternoon. Areas from Navasota to Huntsville
have had 5 to 8 inches of rainfall this morning. Outflow boundary
now over Houston so may have more elevated storm structures that
may become strong. South of the bounary airmass still unstable
with temperatures in low 80s dewpoints in low/middle 70s. Potential for isolated
severe storm still exists. Water vapor imagery shows shortwave
over Baja California which should push into the area late tonight Tuesday
morning. Expect more thunderstorm activity tonight with this
feature and combined with the stalled frontal boundary and high
moisture...may need to expand Flash Flood Watch for the rest of
the area.

Lotta rain out there ..
Quoting 294. jpsb:


well the image was from last week, May 5th, but CT has been having problems so maybe the image is incorrect. As far as I know CT is the only place I get a global picture of ice and snow. If anyone has another reliable site please post a link. tia


I live in Canada and can safely say it is incorrect haha, my best friend is in Newfoundland and it's green there too.
Quoting 294. jpsb:


well the image was from last week, May 5th, but CT has been having problems so maybe the image is incorrect. As far as I know CT is the only place I get a global picture of ice and snow. If anyone has another reliable site please post a link. tia


That graphic is misleading. How does the program decide whether to make it yellow indicating snow/ice or not? The reason is that I am IN Alaska and looking around me, I don't see that much snow. Yes, the tops of mountains have snow, but elevations lower than around 2000 foot up don't have any snow. Yet the graphic shows there is snow cover here.

What I would like to see is shading indicating a certain geographic region has a certain percent of snow cover on it. Kind of like how the ocean temp mapping is done... Maybe then I will put a little more trust/belief into what it is saying. Not a all or nothing type scale. Just my .02. Not an attack - just an observation.
Quoting 309. SafeInTexas:

Photo gallery of damage out of Van TX. 2 Confirmed dead.

http://www.focusinon.me/News/51015-Van-Area-Storm -Damage-by/49194952_WmGvgp#!i=4050235649&k=t42 QxQC

I live in Tyler and have friends that live in Van so it's a pretty scary situation.
It is bad there..I hope this is not a pattern that will continue for those folks. Bad enough as it is.
Quoting 308. yoboi:



That graph is neither area nor extent. That is area. And it's only a model. I was reminded of that constantly in 2012 by many of the same people who are now touting PIOMAS.

The thickening is overwhelmingly in the Central Arctic, so it's probably not going to be terribly relevant to the melt season.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
.
319. yoboi
Quoting 318. Xulonn:

Of course there are mentions of probabilities and likelihoods - because what I posted is research and evidence-based science - and not denialist blatherings. Science-based projections are based on likelihoods, probabilities and confidence levels. I thought you knew that!

If you first came to Wunderground to follow hurricanes, you must be aware that you are far more likely to face a dangerous situation if there is a 95% chance of a Cat 5 hurricane striking you in the next couple of days vs. a 20% chance. Yet, some weather geeks seem to have trouble applying this same logic to AGW/CC issues.

When someone begins to study science seriously, they quickly learns that proofs are for mathematicians and philosophers, and that science uses not "predictions," but rather "projections" which based on probabilities, likelihoods and confidence levels. For many of the projections of climate scientists, these confidence factors are extraordinarily high.

But your second point about it being "proven" that is false and misleading - it's a spurious correlation without evidence to back it up - and I noticed that you don't provide any references to data and analysis. There are many factors leading to the current record levels of global food production, and the initial levels of anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 level increases may indeed be beneficial. But that is "very likely" to change as CO2 levels continue to increase.

Yes, we are at record levels of crop production, and there is a continuing increase. However, as my link clearly stated, the rate of increase in global crop yields is decreasing, and trending towards negative in the future. And also as my link demonstrated, the nutritional value of most crops will decrease with increasing CO2.

Do you really think that this is a good thing? More plant mass and less nutritional value?


I agree that CO2 is not the only factor with the increase with global food production....Better farm management and disease resistant crops are the major factors.....But with an increase with CO2 has helped increase yields.....We are far far away from the increase of CO2 having a negative impact with crop yields.....
Quoting 244. Tazmanian:




stop ok this day to day picking on scott needs too stop

We all need to just wait and see...This "prediction" crap needs to stop now. (No offence to Scott).