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Tropical Storms Nate, Maria have formed; 2011 season on the heels of 2005's numbers

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:25 PM GMT on September 07, 2011

Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon after Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation in Invest 96L. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equalling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission into Invest 96L/Nate found maximum sustained winds of at least 45 mph, and minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. Wind shear in the region is low and is expected to remain low for the next 48 hours. Sea surface temperature is toasty in the Gulf at around 30°C (86°F) and more than ample to support intensification. Nate will bring heavy rains and potential flooding and mudslides to Mexico, and according to some weather models, also has the potential to be a U.S. landfall threat. Nate's surface circulation is apparent on satellite loops, although the thunderstorm activity in the storm is displaced from the center. It appears the strongest storms are to the southwest and northeast of the center. East of the storm, thunderstorms are churning associated with the stationary front that's draped across Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, and over the Yucatan Peninsula. This stationary front is left over from the cold front that pushed south through the central and eastern U.S. earlier this week, and created a focal point in the Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Storm Nate to form. It's notoriously difficult for weather models and forecasters to predict tropical cyclones that spin up in the Gulf of Mexico, but lead-time for both Nate and our previous Gulf cyclone, Lee, was generous.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Nate at 6:15pm EDT.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Nate
Given the favorable environment, in addition to a very warm pocket of sea surface waters in the central Gulf of Mexico, we expect that Nate will intensify modestly over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Nate will become the third hurricane of the season by Friday. The HWRF and ECMWF agree with this forecast—both of these models bring Nate to a category 2 hurricane by Saturday. The IVCN/ICON consensus models that the Hurricane Center relies on are more conservative, peaking at category 1 intensity. Nate's maximum potential intensity is heavily dependent on its track, which, according to the weather models, has been up in the air for the past few of days. Until this afternoon's run, the ECMWF has held true to its forecast that Nate will track north and make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to Florida. This afternoon, it backed off of that solution and is now forecasting a northern Mexico landfall. The GFS has consistently forecasted a track that lingers in the Bay of Campeche for a few days before ultimately making dive to the west into Mexico. Over the past few days the Canadian CMC model has been reluctant to develop Nate at all, but today is forecasting the system to track north into the Southeast U.S. states. Now that there is Hurricane Hunter data to ingest (as well as confirmed 45 mph surface wind speeds), we expect the models will come into better agreement on both track and intensity for Tropical Storm Nate.

Tropical Storm Maria

Tropical Depression 14 was named Tropical Storm Maria late this morning, as well. The storm is still pretty far east in the Atlantic, 1,200 miles east of the Leeward Islands, but is moving quickly to the west at 23 mph. According to the National Hurricane Center, Maria looks well-organized on satellite, "but not really." If you look closely at satellite loops (especially the loops that you can catch before the sun sets in that area), you'll see the surface circulation is located to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity. Well-organized tropical cyclones will be vertically stacked in the atmosphere, with the strongest thunderstorms directly on top of the surface circulation. Maria's disjointed-ness is likely due to a pretty strong clip of wind shear (30 knots worth) in the area. This would usually be deadly for a tropical cyclone of Maria's strength, but since the storm is moving so quickly to the west, the Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to remain somewhat intact for the next 5 days, although the forecast is for no intensification. Models are coming into better agreement on the track of this system. Prior to today, the ECMWF was forecasting a track south of Puerto Rico, but has since changed its mind and is now in agreement with many of the other models on a track skirting the northern Leeward Islands and missing the Greater Antilles to the north. Beyond this, there is quite a bit of uncertainty depending on steering winds in the Atlantic. It's still too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting Maria has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Angela

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Re #994

HWRF : The Hope Wet Rain Falls on Texas Model!

Am tellin ya. Hope works at least some of the time.
The NHC 8:00 AM report is somewhat contradictory. They put a TS watch for some of the leeward/windwards and at the same time they accept that the system could be degenerating to just a tropical wave (It is obvious it is now a weak tropical wave). There is NO necessity to send a recon airplane this afternoon. satellite pesentation is very very obvious to conclude it is NO more a tropical storm or TD.
the sun is now up on the Visible loop
for the M storm
1005. Drakoen
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Drak, correct me if I am wrong, but when systems move towards Mexico in a SWward fashion, doesn't that help with a system strengthening? I remember Alex did something similar, and ramped up really quickly before landfall.


It's not really moving towards Mexico or any direction at the moment. However, the parabolic shape of the coastline helps with the torque allowing the system to spin up faster.


Nate in its incubator
Katia = fish storm oops I mean a UK storm
Maria = fish storm
Nate = a Mexican Cutie

We in the leeward could be competing with Texas for entire sunny, hot days this weekend!!
Quoting Drakoen:


It's not really moving towards Mexico or any direction at the moment. However, the parabolic shape of the coastline helps with the torque allowing the system to spin up faster.


Ah, okay.

================================================= ====

Maria faces a similar problem to Colin from last year -- Got too far ahead of itself, but then slowed down and regenerated. IF Maria does open up into a tropical wave, I think Maria could follow what Colin did.
Quoting weatherjr:
The NHC 8:00 AM report is somewhat contradictory. They put a TS watch for some of the leeward/windwards and at the same time they accept that the system could be degenerating to just a tropical wave (It is obvious it is now a weak tropical wave). There is NO necessity to send a recon airplane this afternoon. satellite pesentation is very very obvious to conclude it is NO more a tropical storm or TD.
Ok first off if maria degenerates IT WILL NOT BE A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE obviously you know zero about the weather here in the tropics an ex-maria (if it does not stregnthen) will still be a STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FLOODING AND SQUALLY WEATHER.
1011. Drakoen
Speed shear has really taken its toll on Maria. The low level center is well removed from the convection. The SHIPS analyzed shear to be 14 knots from the southwest coupled with the storm's forward motion really disrupting the system overall.




Maria's COC is exposed. If she wraps convection around it she may survive but her forward speed is making her circulation outrun the convection.
Quoting weatherjr:
The NHC 8:00 AM report is somewhat contradictory. They put a TS watch for some of the leeward/windwards and at the same time they accept that the system could be degenerating to just a tropical wave (It is obvious it is now a weak tropical wave). There is NO necessity to send a recon airplane this afternoon. satellite pesentation is very very obvious to conclude it is NO more a tropical storm or TD.


Am I the only person who doesn't have jr on thier ignore list. Time to start using the "POOF BUTTON" LOL
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Am I the only person who doesn't have jr on thier ignore list. Time to start using the "POOF BUTTON" LOL
I THINK YOUR RIGHT POOF AWAY
Good morning, I see 3 of our more reliable models the HWRF, GFDL, and GFS have shifted to a Northward track that would take Nate up towards the Gulf Coast anywhere from Louisiana to the Panhandle of FL...I smell a track change.
sorry for yelling lol forgot caps ill put my puerto rican coffee down now lol
Quoting coffeecrusader:
Katia = fish storm oops I mean a UK storm
Maria = fish storm
Nate = a Mexican Cutie



and POOF
I also smell a track change for Maria.
back later
mrpuertorico: You do not have common sense. I do not have to demostrate you my meteorology/science knowledge. I put my statements and accept the consequences. Surely I know much more than you in this respect. BUT please, dont worry or disturb, YOU are also my friend. I just put my opinion here. You agree or dissagree, thats all!!!
Quoting Drakoen:
Speed shear has really taken its toll on Maria. The low level center is well removed from the convection. The SHIPS analyzed shear to be 14 knots from the southwest coupled with the storm's forward motion really disrupting the system overall.



Drak,will she start to slowdown soon?
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Am I the only person who doesn't have jr on thier ignore list. Time to start using the "POOF BUTTON" LOL


Nah, I've been giving him the benefit of the doubt too. I think that may change shortly...
Quoting weatherjr:
mrpuertorico: You do not have common sense. I do not have to demostrate you my meteorology/science knowledge. I put my statements and accept the consequences. Surely I know much more than you in this respect. BUT please, dont worry or disturb, YOU are also my friend. I just put my opinion here. You agree or dissagree, thats all!!!
You do not put anything as an opinion. You state it as if it is a fact and have been doing it for days now.
To put me or others in the Ignore list is an emotional deffense mechanism. I hope other can learn something from me in the same way I learn a lot from all the bloggers. I never put anyone on my ignore list. That is a stupidity. The truth is the truth, even when it cause pain sometimes.
1025. Drakoen
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Drak,will she start to slowdown soon?


Perhaps when she is closer to the Lesser Antilles.
1026. JP2010
The 0Z run CMC, GFS takes Nate toward LA by Monday. The new 06Z run of GFDL, HWRF now make major shift to the right of earlier runs. The trough over SE it's pulling in NNE over the next 96 HRS. THE CMC has had this track for days now it always handles northern waves much better than other models.
I would think as 12Z runs update if ECMWF swings to the right NHC will also turn more to a US threat in later tracks.
1027. hydrus
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I also smell a track change for Maria.
I agree..It will be more to the west due to weakening.
1028. FLdewey
I'm not understanding why you guys can't disagree without all of the "poofing" chatter.

Person1 thinks it's a fish
Person2 thinks it's not a fish

Life goes on. The world continues to rotate.

Putting people on your ignore list because they have a different viewpoint from you is pretty sad.

If, for whatever reason you feel the need to ignore someone, for the sake of all of the Cheetos in Florida just do it. Christ almighty 20% of blog posts now are people talking about "poofing" people.

I need more coffee.
I don't understand why this image shows the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF tracks as it does.

The 06Z (2 EST) of each has a completely different track than what is shown here.

Quoting mrpuertorico:
sorry for yelling lol forgot caps ill put my puerto rican coffee down now lol


Cafe Boricua!! I would kill for a nice cup of Cafe Crema or Yaucono right now. I miss my Island so much. Best coffee in the planet that's for sure. I just wish they would share it with the rest of the world and sell it here in the US.
Quoting FLdewey:
I'm not understanding why you guys can't disagree without all of the "poofing" chatter.

Person1 thinks it's a fish
Person2 thinks it's not a fish

Life goes on. The world continues to rotate.

Putting people on your ignore list because they have a different viewpoint from you is pretty sad.

If, for whatever reason you feel the need to ignore someone, for the sake of all of the Cheetos in Florida just do it. Christ almighty 20% of blog posts now are people talking about "poofing" people.

I need more coffee.


Person 1 is NOT a fish!

SPOOF! Welcome to my Ignore List.
stormwatcherCI : I apologize when I post something and I forgot to put IMO. I am so sorry for that situation. I accept your criticism. Again, I apologize for that situation. I will attempt to correct that and to correct myself. Thanks my friend.
1033. FLdewey
Wide right turn, and ugly bug.



Quoting FLdewey:
I'm not understanding why you guys can't disagree without all of the "poofing" chatter.

Person1 thinks it's a fish
Person2 thinks it's not a fish

Life goes on. The world continues to rotate.

Putting people on your ignore list because they have a different viewpoint from you is pretty sad.

If, for whatever reason you feel the need to ignore someone, for the sake of all of the Cheetos in Florida just do it. Christ almighty 20% of blog posts now are people talking about "poofing" people.

I need more coffee.



Agree .... Nothing going on here ... Move on ......
1035. FLdewey
Quoting wxobsvps:


Person 1 is NOT a fish!

SPOOF! Welcome to my Ignore List.


Please don't quote FLdewey, he is on my ignore list.
Quoting FLdewey:
Wide right turn, and ugly bug.





TS Scott Norwood.
Back Later....
Did FLdewey just say something?
Quoting FLdewey:


I need more coffee.


That made me laugh. Out loud. Thank you! (and I agree with the rest of your post as well.)
"Amateur star-gazers will be able to witness the most visible exploding star since 1954 in skies above Britain this week.
The cosmic event is one of the closest stellar explosions to Earth since 1987, and is the nearest example of its type to be seen from Earth in 40 years.
The exploding star, named PTF-11kly, is predicted to reach its brightest between September 9 and 12 and will visible in clear skies all over Britain."

(Should be visible anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere, at least, I would've thought)

Link

Link
Quoting FLdewey:


Please don't quote FLdewey, he is on my ignore list.



LMAO .... btw ... what is a spoof?
Quoting hydrus:
I agree..It will be more to the west due to weakening.
I agree. The linear path is definitely on the southern end of the cone.
Quoting wxobsvps:
I don't understand why this image shows the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF tracks as it does.

The 06Z (2 EST) of each has a completely different track than what is shown here.



Good question. Maybe they're waiting for confirmation with the next run since it was so drastically different.
1045. FLdewey
Quoting thesituation:


The people on the cooking blog won't be so forgiving if you hit them with tropical maps sitch.
Quoting FLdewey:


The people on the cooking blog won't be so forgiving if you hit them with tropical maps sitch.


Sure they will...it looks like psychadelic spaghetti.
Quoting rushisaband:



LMAO .... btw ... what is a spoof?


That's when you're so pissed off that you sputter when you say it...
Quoting FLdewey:


Please don't quote FLdewey, he is on my ignore list.


*snicker* Woke up grouchy today and needed that giggle. ;-)
1049. FLdewey
Quoting Thunderpig75:


Sure they will...it looks like phychadelic spaghetti.



Haha - good point.

Quoting BLee2333:


That's when you're so pissed off that you sputter when you say it...


Thanks for this - it's much better than my explanation that involved electrodes.
Quoting weatherjr:
stormwatcherCI : I apologize when I post something and I forgot to put IMO. I am so sorry for that situation. I accept your criticism. Again, I apologize for that situation. I will attempt to correct that and to correct myself. Thanks my friend.
NP. We all have our opinion and just remember the saying ,"It's not what you say but how you say it."
WOW... I wonder if the new GFDL is hinting at some changes that may happen with all the models today... hmmm...
1052. Dakster
Quoting FLdewey:
Wide right turn, and ugly bug.





What is it an FSU football storm now? (Wide Right?)
1053. franck
Watched internet weather for ten years now. Don't know much meteorology, but I have developed a little bit of an eye for comparison. I haven't seen anything like the dome over Texas.
Quoting FLdewey:


Haha - good point.



Thanks for this - it's much better than my explanation that involved electrodes.


Granny style fist pump*
Current steering pattern. The NHC current track and cone just does not compute with this IMO. Anyone here has an educated opinion on my comment?



1056. hydrus
Quoting FLdewey:
I'm not understanding why you guys can't disagree without all of the "poofing" chatter.

Person1 thinks it's a fish
Person2 thinks it's not a fish

Life goes on. The world continues to rotate.

Putting people on your ignore list because they have a different viewpoint from you is pretty sad.

If, for whatever reason you feel the need to ignore someone, for the sake of all of the Cheetos in Florida just do it. Christ almighty 20% of blog posts now are people talking about "poofing" people.

I need more coffee.
I get hungry all the time on this blog..Fish is my favorite and I have learned at least ten killer recipes here...When the MJO returns, I believe the Caribbean will become the main area of interest, but the Atlantic will still be active..
Good morning

With Maria now a very shallow system it raises the possibility of it remaining embedded in the strong low level flow that has a due West channel right through the Caribbean. 13 N is quite far South for a small weak system to feel the weakness to the N of PR. In fact, 13 N is the latitude of Barbados to put it into perpsective. With Maria already at 50 W this is going to become rather interesting and very soon.

Actually if Nate goes north that would be worse than hitting Mexico. Lets say it heads north, it will hit to the east of Texas bringing the state more Northern Gusty winds that will be a fire disaster.

A hit to LA would be about as bad as it could get for the state of Texas. The fires are bad enough. We don't need another large pressure gradient bringing northern, dry and gusty winds.

Add that disaster to more rain in the East, and, well let's just hope for a western track into Mexico with minimal damage.

Now if Nate could make a direct hit on the Texas coast........
1060. hydrus
Quoting franck:
Watched internet weather for ten years now. Don't know much meteorology, but I have developed a little bit of an eye for comparison. I haven't seen anything like the dome over Texas.
True..I am calling it the dust bowl high now..The GFS 240 hours out..
Quoting franck:
Watched internet weather for ten years now. Don't know much meteorology, but I have developed a little bit of an eye for comparison. I haven't seen anything like the dome over Texas.


Leave it to the Texans to do things in grand style! :)
1062. FLdewey
Quoting Dakster:


What is it an FSU football storm now? (Wide Right?)


Oh snap... no you di-ent.

Do you have any idea how much scalding hot coffee in through the nose hurts. Spoof!
1063. Jax82
shields are up on the east coast this week, are there any models showing a pattern change in the upcoming week or two?
1064. FLdewey
You're doing the black box thing again hydrus. :-p
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

With Maria now a very shallow system it raises the possibility of it remaining embedded in the strong low level flow that has a due West channel right through the Caribbean. 13 N is quite far South for a small weak system to feel the weakness to the N of PR. In fact, 13 N is the latitude of Barbados to put it into perpsective. With Maria already at 50 W this is going to become rather interesting and very soon.



Good obs. Kman... I think models are going to start shifting a bit over the next couple of runs.
Maria is still a TS:

AL, 14, 2011090812, , BEST, 0, 130N, 502W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 0, 0, 75, 1010, 175, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARIA, S

...and Nate is still getting stronger:

AL, 15, 2011090812, , BEST, 0, 203N, 924W, 45, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 90, 120, 80, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NATE, M,
1067. luigi18
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Cafe Boricua!! I would kill for a nice cup of Cafe Crema or Yaucono right now. I miss my Island so much. Best coffee in the planet that's for sure. I just wish they would share it with the rest of the world and sell it here in the US.

Cafe Crema!
1068. Dakster
Quoting FLdewey:
You're doing the black box thing again hydrus. :-p


You do not like looking at his black box dewey?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good morning, I see 3 of our more reliable models the HWRF, GFDL, and GFS have shifted to a Northward track that would take Nate up towards the Gulf Coast anywhere from Louisiana to the Panhandle of FL...I smell a track change.


GFS also has a reorganized maria moving WNW thru central bahamas also... coul be interesting
1070. hydrus
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

With Maria now a very shallow system it raises the possibility of it remaining embedded in the strong low level flow that has a due West channel right through the Caribbean. 13 N is quite far South for a small weak system to feel the weakness to the N of PR. In fact, 13 N is the latitude of Barbados to put it into perpsective. With Maria already at 50 W this is going to become rather interesting and very soon.

Dust in the gulf...
Quoting thesituation:


If DJ wasn't up the river, he'd be coming after you for royalties.
1072. Squid28
Quoting uptxcoast:
Actually if Nate goes north that would be worse than hitting Mexico. Lets say it heads north, it will hit to the east of Texas bringing the state more Northern Gusty winds that will be a fire disaster.

A hit to LA would be about as bad as it could get for the state of Texas. The fires are bad enough. We don't need another large pressure gradient bringing northern, dry and gusty winds.

Add that disaster to more rain in the East, and, well let's just hope for a western track into Mexico with minimal damage.

Now if Nate could make a direct hit on the Texas coast........


The other thing that I have not heard anyone talking about yet, is where is all the water being used to fight the wildfires is coming from. With all of the lakes so low already, and a lot of communities on well water you have to wonder if at some point they will need to make a choice of fire fighting vs. drying up a municipalities water supply...

Lets hope it does not come to this...
Have to head out now. The current model runs would have initialised too far to the N so the next set are the ones to watch for in terms of track for Maria. I cannot see how they will avoid coming to the left.
I do hope Maria does hurry up and make her N move as she is in directed line of Barbados at her present position she should start to affect us by 8am tomorrow morning if she doesnt make her move!
1075. hydrus
Quoting FLdewey:
You're doing the black box thing again hydrus. :-p
lol..I am trying to remedy that..NOAA 6 days out...
morning

very good analysis Kman, i was just about posting the same observation. with the system decoupled the centre will move west, with a chance of reorganisation closer to the islands. interesting day ahead
1077. Dakster
There ya' go Hydrus... We can see a pretty picture now!
1078. hydrus
Quoting Jax82:
shields are up on the east coast this week, are there any models showing a pattern change in the upcoming week or two?
Levi said the trough will flatten out and winds will become zonal in a couple weeks.
1079. FLdewey
Not with a 10 foot pole Dak.
I guess the wind shifted in the last few hours. The highrise I work in in the Galleria area in Houston smells like a bonfire. The smoke is so thick outside it looks like a heavy fog. This is getting scary....are the winds picking up and shifting? I'm used to smelling and seeing the smoke line at home in West Houston, but this is near downtown.
1081. luigi18
Quoting stoormfury:
morning

very good analysis Kman, i was just about posting the same observation. with the system decoupled the centre will move west, with a chance of reorganisation closer to the islands. interesting day ahead


Me too the waters close to the Caribbean are very hot on this days as soon she get closer and slow down she will get better organize
1082. Dakster
Quoting FLdewey:
Not with a 10 foot pole Dak.


LOL...
Just got done making this quilt

Quoting barbadosjulie:
I do hope Maria does hurry up and make her N move as she is in directed line of Barbados at her present position she should start to affect us by 8am tomorrow morning if she doesnt make her move!
might want to prepare because she's been a bad girl
1085. FLdewey
Quoting hydrus:
lol..I am trying to remedy that..NOAA 6 days out...


*very niiice*
Quoting thesituation:
Just got done making this quilt

beautiful
1087. hydrus
Quoting Dakster:
There ya' go Hydrus... We can see a pretty picture now!
Thank you Dakster..Cant seem to post from the Raleigh Weather Model Page. Maria looks like it was hit with a giant fly swatter..
Quoting hydrus:
Dust in the gulf...


Curious:

Anyone know if the Texas smoke would echo as dust particulates on the GOM SAL?
1089. Dakster
Quoting barbadosjulie:
I do hope Maria does hurry up and make her N move as she is in directed line of Barbados at her present position she should start to affect us by 8am tomorrow morning if she doesnt make her move!


Not to sound like a westcaster... BUT, a track change to the south and west is looking like a possibility for Maria... The REASON I say this, is because she is weaker than anticipated and is going almost due west.
1090. Squid28
Quoting Allyson00:
I guess the wind shifted in the last few hours. The highrise I work in in the Galleria area in Houston smells like a bonfire. The smoke is so thick outside it looks like a heavy fog. This is getting scary....are the winds picking up and shifting? I'm used to smelling and seeing the smoke line at home in West Houston, but this is near downtown.


We can smell the smoke down around the
La Porte/Seabrook area as well this morning.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Maria is still a TS:

AL, 14, 2011090812, , BEST, 0, 130N, 502W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 0, 0, 75, 1010, 175, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARIA, S

...and Nate is still getting stronger:

AL, 15, 2011090812, , BEST, 0, 203N, 924W, 45, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 90, 120, 80, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NATE, M,


And Leon is getting LARGER ...
1092. hydrus
Quoting FLdewey:
You're doing the black box thing again hydrus. :-p
Outflow from Katia is squashing the t-wave near the Antilles. It should be interesting to watch after Katia moves out.
at the next advisory for Katia... Katia will become the highest ACE producer of the year
quite a change in the latest gfs thinking. Complete 180 for Nate, Maria looks like a real threat to CONUS. Now where near what the previous runs was doing. Wonder why the change.
Quoting thesituation:
Just got done making this quilt


And yet the copyright date says 2007? I fear your advanced age may be distorting your sense of the word "just". ;-)
Quoting marknmelb:


And Leon is getting LARGER ...

I was waiting for that... ;-)
1041- Cotillion/ Good link on the supernova, will keep a look out this weekend for it
1098. hydrus
Quoting Neapolitan:

I was waiting for that... ;-)


Glad I didn't disappoint :)
Quoting BLee2333:


Curious:

Anyone know if the Texas smoke would echo as dust particulates on the GOM SAL?


I know in Austin our local weather radar was picking up the smoke from the fires as rain (showing on the weather maps as green).

Just read post from Houston about the smoke smell in downtown - any idea if that is from the fire in La Grange or floating over from our area?
Complete Update

CAT Katia is going
TS Maria is coming
TS Nate is still in the "WTF" am I going Cone of Doom.

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





1102. hydrus
Quoting Clearwater1:
quite a change in the latest gfs thinking. Complete 180 for Nate, Maria looks like a real threat to CONUS. Now where near what the previous runs was doing. Wonder why the change.
The GFS has Nate beating up a large section of the northern gulf coast..Link
1103. ryang
Should be interesting when RECON goes in Maria later today. I'll be keeping a close eye on it here in Barbados.
Quoting thesituation:
Just got done making this quilt


Very talented. I'm sure there are those on here that will disagree on you Storm position. Lets call that quilt Nate and spare La. from all the rain. Send it to Texas. But I love the quilt,thanks for the pic.
1105. Dakster
Anyone else watching NASA launch a rocket to the moon? Live?
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

CAT Katia is going
TS Maria is coming
TS Nate is still in the "WTF" am I going Cone of Doom.

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI







Absolutly brilliant anaylsis! LOL
1107. hydrus
Nate.
1108. JLPR2
The EURO

and the GFS:


Seem to have come to a pretty good agreement.
You can see the heat signature showing a black dot NW of Houston where the major fire is

1110. CJ5
Yea, I don't see anything in the current steering that is going to force Katia to the N. I expect some changes to the current models.
Quoting Dakster:
Anyone else watching NASA launch a rocket to the moon? Live?
wow, I have been out of the loop, with nasa. Used to follow it all. Didn't even know a launch was sched.

Edit. Just just the nasa site, delayed launch due to high winds.
1112. FLdewey
Quoting Dakster:
Anyone else watching NASA launch a rocket to the moon? Live?


I'm watching out my office window... right now all I see is low clouds.
Could someone please explain why some storms move very fast while others seem to crawl? I understand it when they slow down to turn but why is Maria flying across the Atlantic into a headwind at 23 mph? TIA
1114. hydrus
Quoting Dakster:
Anyone else watching NASA launch a rocket to the moon? Live?
Yes..Can you see this precip acc. map?
Quoting AustinTXWeather:


I know in Austin our local weather radar was picking up the smoke from the fires as rain (showing on the weather maps as green).

Just read post from Houston about the smoke smell in downtown - any idea if that is from the fire in La Grange or floating over from our area?


Strong Smell of smoke in Houston is from the Magnolia fire. The Magnolia fire flared up yesterday. The smoke plumes were very visible from my office in the Woodlands. It is also showing up on Houston radar in green. Big time air quality alert in effect today.
1116. Dakster
Disregard - NASA Scrubbed it. Upper Level Winds are too strong to launch.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Absolutly brilliant anaylsis! LOL


ROFLMAO.. I try and keep it simple ;)
Quoting uptxcoast:


Strong Smell of smoke in Houston is from the Magnolia fire. The Magnolia fire flared up yesterday. The smoke plumes were very visible from my office in the Woodlands.


Smoke plume yesterday could be seen from Galveston on the horizon
Good Morning, I have never seen any disaster like the Bastrop fire, 1,386 homes destroyed, 34,000 acres. No single fire in Texas has ever destroyed more than 300 to 400 homes before. I have not been watching weather much due, any wet relief for Texas in our near future? So many uninsured and have lost everything here but we will recover. Peace and have a great day. Sorry if I got off subject just wanted to keep those informed and that we are alive. Tough having family and friends who do lose everything though. Keep the faith.
is maria the naked swirl at far left of goes visible loop?
1121. hydrus
Quoting Dakster:
Disregard - NASA Scrubbed it. Upper Level Winds are too strong to launch.
Maybe manana..
1122. JLPR2
Maria entering the frame.
Quoting uptxcoast:


Strong Smell of smoke in Houston is from the Magnolia fire. The Magnolia fire flared up yesterday. The smoke plumes were very visible from my office in the Woodlands. It is also showing up on Houston radar in green. Big time air quality alert in effect today.


Thx - had not heard about that fire. Appreciate the info
Quoting marknmelb:


Glad I didn't disappoint :)



Yeah..But it's still early.
anyone have an update on new upcoming storms off of Africa or closer to home?

pattern change coming up (if it does evolve) will impose more of a threat on the SE CONUS

Obviously, there are no guarantees but Florida should not let their guard down. A stronger bermuda high with troughs flattening out only spells trouble for them.

Florida: Keep a watch out
I think this is not good news for the Islands because Maria is moving west at this hour and could become more organized near the Islands and that's not good at all.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good Morning, I have never seen any disaster like the Bastrop fire, 1,386 homes destroyed, 34,000 acres. No single fire in Texas has ever destroyed more than 300 to 400 homes before. I have not been watching weather much due, any wet relief for Texas in our near future? So many uninsured and have lost everything here but we will recover. Peace and have a great day. Sorry if I got off subject just wanted to keep those informed and that we are alive. Tough having family and friends who do lose everything though. Keep the faith.


This is a perfect example of a WEATHER-related DISASTER--lack of rain. My thoughts and prayers go out to Texas!
The "skeleton" of the former Maria entering the frame (IMO)
1103. ryang 1:01 PM GMT on September 08, 2011 +0
Should be interesting when RECON goes in Maria later today. I'll be keeping a close eye on it here in Barbados.

Hi ryang...been watching this one closley....I hope it makes its turn soon but I am hearing it should turn till tomorro but on this track we should begin to feel it by 8am tomorrow
Quoting hydrus:
Yes..Can you see this precip acc. map?


yes...
1131. P451
Maria and Nate.

Two systems that went through a period of rapid organization.

Two systems that had the look as if hurricane status was inevitable and soon.

Two systems that are clinging to weak TS status with no visible change in their atmospheric conditions ahead.

1132. WxLogic
Good Morning...
I'll ask again later. Maybe someone knows the answer.
1134. P451
lol... 3 day hazard area, Nate.

p451, statement 1131:
WELL SAID!!
1136. P451
Quoting FLdewey:


I'm watching out my office window... right now all I see is low clouds.


They launched a weather balloon.

Cited a wind azimuth issue.

Scrubbed.

STADBYE, back to work... lets wait the evening
STANDBYE, back to work... lets wait the evening
1139. hydrus
Quoting BLee2333:


yes...
Thank you..One problem resolved.:)
1140. Caner
Quoting P451:
lol... 3 day hazard area, Nate.



Fairly reeks of confidence, doesn't it?
Link
i see near the end, Nate is really tugging on that dry GOM air!! was chomping it up with little detriment to structure yesterday, probably due to the BOC geography aiding the concentration of all that moisture to the south and east.. but with a solid lip of that dry air riding down the coast into the BOC, Nate will definitely be struggling throughout the day.
1142. ryang
Quoting barbadosjulie:
1103. ryang 1:01 PM GMT on September 08, 2011 +0
Should be interesting when RECON goes in Maria later today. I'll be keeping a close eye on it here in Barbados.

Hi ryang...been watching this one closley....I hope it makes its turn soon but I am hearing it should turn till tomorro but on this track we should begin to feel it by 8am tomorrow


Yup...looks like it might be coming through the central islands instead (maybe just north of us). We'll know more later today.
Not liking my forecast for next week, Sunny and at least 100, just what Texas needs, Not.
1144. Caner
Quoting Minnemike:
Link
i see near the end, Nate is really tugging on that dry GOM air!! was chomping it up with little detriment to structure yesterday, probably due to the BOC geography aiding the concentration of all that moisture to the south and east.. but with a solid lip of that dry air riding down the coast into the BOC, Nate will definitely be struggling throughout the day.


There is a lot more moisture at the low levels than the water vapor sat lets on.

That cool front pulled some unseasonably cool air out over the gulf, the water temp is much higher than the ambient air temp.

Due to that, a very high evaporation factor is occurring at the surface level.

That's why you are seeing cloud streets forming in that 'dry' air and pumping into Nate.
Quoting hydrus:
Nate.


Look Better This Morning
1146. JLPR2
Today Maria is supposed to meet this buoy.

Winds are picking up. But it is located at 14.4N and she's at 13N, dont expect much a of a wind shift.
1147. Beta
How many named storms will we end up with this year and how many Hurricanes and Major Hurricanes will we have too this year?
Quoting Beta:
How many named storms will we end up with this year and how many Hurricanes and Major Hurricanes will we have too this year?


89-73-64
1149. WxLogic
.
1150. Caner
Quoting Beta:
How many named storms will we end up with this year and how many Hurricanes and Major Hurricanes will we have too this year?


*Shakes Magic 8-Ball*

Ask again later?
1151. MahFL
Intense convection now on Nate's center.
Quoting kshipre1:
anyone have an update on new upcoming storms off of Africa or closer to home?

pattern change coming up (if it does evolve) will impose more of a threat on the SE CONUS

Obviously, there are no guarantees but Florida should not let their guard down. A stronger bermuda high with troughs flattening out only spells trouble for them.

Florida: Keep a watch out


I forgot which model (I think the EURO) develops something off the coast of Venezuela, right after Maria passes by, and brings it straight into SFL.
H.Katia's_12pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 7Sept_12pmGMT and ending 8Sept_12pmGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneKatia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection,
and the coastline blob at 40.72n73.1w-ISP is the endpoint of the most
recent
previous straightline projection connected to its nearest airport.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
H.Katia's travel-speed was 18.3mph(29.5k/h) on a heading of 0.0degrees(N)
H.Katia was headed toward passage over NantucketIsland,Massachusetts ~1day5hours from now

Copy&paste 40.72n73.1w-isp, 28.8n68.4w-29.4n69.3w, 29.4n69.3w-30.3n69.9w, 30.3n69.9w-31.4n70.2w, 31.4n70.2w-33.0n70.2w, ack, 31.4n70.2w-41.268n70.2w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 8Sept_6amGMT)
Good Morning, all.

I noticed that the models on Nate have changed since last night - more of them are aiming him toward the Gulf states it seems than yesterday - do you think this is accurate? Maria looks like she's taking a similar track to Irene's - should the East Coast be concerned?

TIA!!

Link
1155. angiest
Quoting uptxcoast:


Strong Smell of smoke in Houston is from the Magnolia fire. The Magnolia fire flared up yesterday. The smoke plumes were very visible from my office in the Woodlands. It is also showing up on Houston radar in green. Big time air quality alert in effect today.


I was surprised to find out it is the Magnolia fire. It still smelled of smoke this morning in Katy, but about the time I go to the Beltway and IH-10 this morning the smoke was getting very thick, and a few miles further east the sun was completely blocked by smoke. It cleared out a couple of miles west of downtown, but it is very thick in the Medical Center, more than enough to be an irritant to someone with healthy lungs. Must be murder on some of the patients here.
no one ever is going to remember katia
1157. Wariac
So is Maria going to go poof or will it get her act together right before the islands? (currently at work and everyone is asking)
1158. angiest
In case no one has mentioned it, today is the 111th anniversary of the landfall of the 1900 Hurricane in Galveston.
1159. Caner
Coincidence, i'm sure, but the ad at the top right of my page just transitioned from an Obama 2012 ad (lol), to a MilDot sniper-scope sale (lol), to a Goldman Sachs advertisement (lol), in that order...

Sometimes coincidence is a fickle mistress ;^)
Wow, that's quite the OFCL nod in the Navy's direction. Fine by me if they're right, BTW.



I wonder if this has anything to do with some of the better performance in the Navy models so far this year. Usually, we do not consider NOGAPS to be as skilled in track forecasts as GFS, GFDL, or HWRF, much less better. But, with Irene, the Navy models (and CMC) latched onto the actual track to the OBX area a full day ahead of the others.

Still odd to see OFCL in rough agreement with the Navy models and well away from NOAA's model results.
Quoting hydrus:
Nate.

In the latest WV there appears to be two Nates..?
Quoting MahFL:
Intense convection now on Nate's center.

HAWT TOWAHS!
=P
1163. WxLogic
Nate:



Maria:



Small change trickling in.
Quoting Caner:


There is a lot more moisture at the low levels than the water vapor sat lets on.

That cool front pulled some unseasonably cool air out over the gulf, the water temp is much higher than the ambient air temp.

Due to that, a very high evaporation factor is occurring at the surface level.

That's why you are seeing cloud streets forming in that 'dry' air and pumping into Nate.
i am far from the most knowledgeable here.. FAR from it.. but isn't the link i provided a precipitable moisture index, not just water vapor imagery? my understanding of that loop is that a dark blue>green region has very little precipitable moisture available, therefore can affect Nate significantly.
this said, i do understand the point you raise, and Greatly appreciate the information provided. dryness aside, you actually answer some curiosity i had about the temperature gradient possibly enhancing convection..
so taking in your point, i do wonder if that high evaporation factor can overcome the impact the dryness of that air can have on a tropical system... could a brief subtropical classification result with such cool dry air mixing in?
Quoting redwagon:

In the latest WV there appears to be two Nates..?
Which would explain the model divergence.
1166. WxLogic
Quoting atmoaggie:
Wow, that's quite the OFCL nod in the Navy's direction. Fine by me if they're right, BTW.



I wonder if this has anything to do with some of the better performance in the Navy models so far this year. Usually, we do not consider NOGAPS to be as skilled in track forecasts as GFS, GFDL, or HWRF, much less better. But, with Irene, the Navy models (and CMC) latched onto the actual track to the OBX area a full day ahead of the others.

Still odd to see OFCL in rough agreement with the Navy models and well away from NOAA's model results.


NGP has been doing well this HURR season.
Quoting wxobsvps:


TS Scott Norwood.


Well struck, Mauer
1168. Caner
Quoting Minnemike:
i am far from the most knowledgeable here.. FAR from it.. but isn't the link i provided a precipitable moisture index, not just water vapor imagery? my understanding of that loop is that a dark blue>green region has very little precipitable moisture available, therefore can affect Nate significantly.
this said, i do understand the point you raise, and Greatly appreciate the information provided. dryness aside, you actually answer some curiosity i had about the temperature gradient possibly enhancing convection..
so taking in your point, i do wonder if that high evaporation factor can overcome the impact the dryness of that air can have on a tropical system... could a brief subtropical classification result with such cool dry air mixing in?


Only at the weak or formative stages, when it is primarily feeding from surface to low level inflows.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Wow, that's quite the OFCL nod in the Navy's direction. Fine by me if they're right, BTW.



I wonder if this has anything to do with some of the better performance in the Navy models so far this year. Usually, we do not consider NOGAPS to be as skilled in track forecasts as GFS, GFDL, or HWRF, much less better. But, with Irene, the Navy models (and CMC) latched onto the actual track to the OBX area a full day ahead of the others.

Still odd to see OFCL in rough agreement with the Navy models and well away from NOAA's model results.


Yea this is odd. CMC on Nate, however, is north GoM. Interesting 12Z set coming up to see of GFS holds with its new solution and if Euro keeps with MX.
1170. 19N81W
so when will marie turn?
Quoting Caner:


Only at the weak or formative stages, when it is primarily feeding from surface to low level inflows.
at ~1003mb, would you consider Nate weak and/or at it's formative stage?
Speaking of two Nates:

12Z NAM

Maria looks sickly.
1174. WxLogic
If Nate is able to keep moving N to NE as Maria approaches then we could have Nate intensifying the subtropical ridge N of Maria and keeping her on a more W to WNW displacement a lot longer.
1175. ryang
What time is Recon going into Maria?

TIA
1176. hydrus
When are they predicting Nate will make up his mind and start moving? Going out of town this weekend and not returning until Sunday night. Don't want to come home to Nate in NOLA's backyard!!
1178. Dakster
Quoting P451:
lol... 3 day hazard area, Nate.



Might as well just draw the circle around the entire GOM at this point.
Not sure what the Dag-NAMmit is thinking...

1180. WxLogic
Quoting 19N81W:
so when will marie turn?


By 2PM today... but with her moving at 20MPH+. Not quite sure that turn would be that dramatic. The cone might need to be shifted further W at 11AM.
1181. Evinrue
No launch, it's a bit windy here at KSC. There's also quite a lot of very low cloud cover. It seemed fine closer to the launch pad, but north by the VAB continues to have pretty dark clouds. It missed its two launch windows for today, so we'll see about future dates in the coming weeks, pending Maria and Nate of course :)
Both Plymouth State and Intellicast have Nate going into Mexico.
What a change.Maria's center far south of the track.Crazy models.And now what next for the islands.
Quoting wxobsvps:
Speaking of two Nates:

12Z NAM


Look at WV - there are two discrete spins.

I don't know what's up with LSU's ESL, been hinky for
two days now, splits the screen and wraps it.
1185. Caner
Quoting Minnemike:
at ~1003mb, would you consider Nate weak and/or at it's formative stage?


There is more to a storm than its barometric pressure, Nate still doesn't have any good mid-level inflow on the north or eastern side.

I think the low level inflow moistened from the unusually high evaporative clouds we are seeing to the North and NW, in that 'dry' air are helping compensate for that.

That is quite a bit of moisture and cloudband it is picking up from 'dry air'...

1186. hydrus
Maria really need to slow down. can anybody explain the fast movement?
1188. Jax82
This tells the whole story with Nate...dog.

Quoting ryang:
What time is Recon going into Maria?

TIA

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM MARIA.......(NO CHANGES)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 08/2000Z
B. AFXXX 0114A MARIA
C. 08/1700Z
D. 14.3N 52.0W
E. 08/1930Z TO 08/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. TROPICAL STORM NATE........(CHANGED FROM SUSPECT AREA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 08/1800Z A. 09/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0215A NATE B. NOAA9 0315A NATE
C. 08/1530Z C. 08/1730Z
D. 20.1N 91.9W F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
E. 08/1730Z TO 08/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 77....(ADDED)
A. 09/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0415A NATE
C. 09/0330Z
D. 20.4N 92.1W
E. 09/0530Z TO 09/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. MARIA: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 09/1200Z....(NO CHANGES)
B. NATE: A G-IV MISSION FOR 10/0000Z. CONTINUE
12-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT....(CHANGED)
4. REMARKS:
A. MISSION FOR HURRICANE KATIA AT 07/1700Z
CANCELED AT 07/1110Z.
B. 08/1800Z INVEST MISSION IS NOW A FIX MISSION.

They will also head into Katia today.
1190. Dakster
Quoting saintsfan06:
When are they predicting Nate will make up his mind and start moving? Going out of town this weekend and not returning until Sunday night. Don't want to come home to Nate in NOLA's backyard!!


A couple of days... By Saturday...
Quoting SPLbeater:
Maria really need to slow down. can anybody explain the fast movement?


she cant develop if she is moving fast...let her race... no one wants a cane on the coast, had enuf with irene
Quoting Jax82:
This tells the whole story with Nate...dog.



That does not look good.
Quoting Caner:


There is a lot more moisture at the low levels than the water vapor sat lets on.

That cool front pulled some unseasonably cool air out over the gulf, the water temp is much higher than the ambient air temp.

Due to that, a very high evaporation factor is occurring at the surface level.

That's why you are seeing cloud streets forming in that 'dry' air and pumping into Nate.
The link provided by Minniemike is Total Precipitable Water. This satellite product is not blocked by clouds, nor grossly attenuated by water vapor as it is from Microwave sounding instruments, unlike satellite water vapor products. Thus, it is capable of measuring the entire column of the atmosphere down to the surface.

You are partly correct, however, that a thin surface layer may have more moisture than the TPW leads one to believe. This is due to the layer being relatively thin and the atmosphere above it being so very dry.

See the 74 F dewpoint to the NW of Nate:

Folks, if you ignore someone, there is no reason to quote them with a "Poof" statement. Seriously, it's childish and it wastes comment space. Especially when you have several people doing it. You aren't making that person feel any worse by telling them you put them on your ignore list. They don't care, get over it. Just ignore them and move on. No need to brag about it. All that does is draw more attention (Remember, trolls thrive on attention) to the problem.
so by looking at the Climate prediction center,we could have Ophelia soon? pfft, great.....
Quoting saintsfan06:
When are they predicting Nate will make up his mind and start moving? Going out of town this weekend and not returning until Sunday night. Don't want to come home to Nate in NOLA's backyard!!
Very little movement expected until tomorrow night by NHC:

Something is telling me that this year will be the only other year that uses the Greek alphabet.
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia (active)
Lee
Maria (active)
Nate (active)
Philippe (unused)
Rina (unused)
Sean (unused)
Tammy (unused)
Vince (unused)
Whitney (unused)
1198. basti11
Quoting saintsfan06:
When are they predicting Nate will make up his mind and start moving? Going out of town this weekend and not returning until Sunday night. Don't want to come home to Nate in NOLA's backyard!!


that wont happen i can assure you of that no place for nate to go except into MEXICO...
lol, how useless does MJO look, now?


Check out roughly 89,23

Link
1201. hydrus
Almost looks like a frontal low forming N.E. of Nate...
1202. Caner
Quoting basti11:


that wont happen i can assure you of that no place for nate to go except into MEXICO...


I remain unassured, despite your assurances ;^p
1203. Jax82
Uh oh, who dat.

1156 islander101010 "no one ever is going to remember katia"

The best kind of hurricanes are the ones that only "stamp collectors" remember.
Most of the HH are in the air right now re positioning for a buy weekend.
Quoting Jax82:
This tells the whole story with Nate...dog.



If he gets stronger, he's about to make some bodies turn cold.
Quoting hydrus:
Almost looks like a frontal low forming N.E. of Nate...


23,89
Quoting Caner:


There is more to a storm than its barometric pressure, Nate still doesn't have any good mid-level inflow on the north or eastern side.

I think the low level inflow moistened from the unusually high evaporative clouds we are seeing to the North and NW, in that 'dry' air are helping compensate for that.

That is quite a bit of moisture and cloudband it is picking up from 'dry air'...

all very interesting, thanks! i do think geography is playing a major role in keeping Nate a 'player'... i like how Chicklit put it, in his incubator ;)

without that bump in spin, i'd imagine some of the environmental factors could take him down.. but with the spin he can keep splashing in those warm waters, mixing it up and causing the blog to stir. (only a modest amount of anthropomorphicizationism)
1210. hydrus
Might see a small vort signature from CIMMS on that energy around 89,23 when they update at 1130 est.
1213. SLU
Quoting MoltenIce:
Something is telling me that this year will be the only other year that uses the Greek alphabet.
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia (active)
Lee
Maria (active)
Nate (active)
Philippe (unused)
Rina (unused)
Sean (unused)
Tammy (unused)
Vince (unused)
Whitney (unused)

Where's OPHELIA?
1214. 996tt
Last week, I was asking whether this deep diving front and seemingly the end of summer heat in Northern GOM has for all intents and purposes shut the GOM down for storm activity. In years past, such a deep front did end Atlantic threats, but left the door open for GOM storm development. These storms usually end up in Yucitan or Mexico. Is that what models are struggling with to overcome the prevalence of such activity to remain very far South after such a front?
Quoting Jax82:
Uh oh, who dat.

lol. Gorgeous, clear skies and the clutter on the radar gives a max reflectivity of 60 to 70 dBz.

Lends one to have less than complete faith that this particular bit of information has any accuracy. Not a new feeling as we have 60+ dBz showing on a highway bridge 90% of the time in the NWS NOLA radar.
1216. basti11
Quoting Caner:


I remain unassured, despite your assurances ;^p




ok i would love to hear your your opinion how you think NATE is going somewhere else but MEXICO...just give me one good reason NATE could take a north path all the way to the gulfcoast just one...im dying to hear it..
1217. Gearsts
Quoting SPLbeater:
Maria really need to slow down. can anybody explain the fast movement?
The high building strong north of her.
1218. FLdewey
The bad news: CycloneOz is in the hospital with a respiratory issue

The REAL bad news: He stole DoomCon from me.

CycloneOz Facebook post:

Verdict in. No pneumonia, but an evil convergence of asthma and upper respiratory infection. (shot) Hospital stay 2-3 days. Personal DoomCon set to HEIGHTENED. They told me that 1 more day would have made it much worse. Good thing I'm not that crazy.

I wish him a speedy recovery... and my attorneys will be in touch.
Quoting basti11:




ok i would love to hear your your opinion how you think NATE is going somewhere else but MEXICO...just give me one good reason NATE could take a north path all the way to the gulfcoast just one...im dying to hear it..


Cause GFS has totally changed from saying it was going to Mexico and now says it will go north? ... just passing by... continue on with your discussions... out of here :-D weee

Quoting FLdewey:
The bad news: CycloneOz is in the hospital with a respiratory issue

The REAL bad news: He stole DoomCon™ from me.

CycloneOz Facebook post:

Verdict in. No pneumonia, but an evil convergence of asthma and upper respiratory infection. (shot) Hospital stay 2-3 days. Personal DoomCon™ set to HEIGHTENED. They told me that 1 more day would have made it much worse. Good thing I'm not that crazy.

I wish him a speedy recovery.


*taps foot*, hands on hip.
0z CMC

1222. ncstorm


thats a big shift for Maria



1223. FLdewey
More action from "the facebook"

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters

Hurricane Hunter crews on N42 (P-3) and N49 (G-IV) are working hard.

N42 is presently sampling the Gulf of Mexico to better understand the present state of the loop current and the available ocean heat content.

N49 recently completed 2 research missions into Hurricane Katia in support of the Hurricane Research Division of AOML/NOAA. They now shift their focus to the Gulf of Mexico in support of NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center forecasts of Tropical Storm Nate.
1224. basti11
Quoting 1million:


Cause GFS has totally changed and now says it will? ... just passing by...




you are kidding me right you are going by a computer that hasnt been right since the cows came home...come on you can come up with your own reasoning why NATE is not going into MEXICO...im going to say thers a 98% chance nate hits just north of VERACRUZ..
Quoting basti11:




ok i would love to hear your your opinion how you think NATE is going somewhere else but MEXICO...just give me one good reason NATE could take a north path all the way to the gulfcoast just one...im dying to hear it..

There is a 1021mb high due W of Nate, he *has* to detour around it, forcing him N if he moves at all today.
1226. SLU
Now that MARIA is approaching warmer SST's, it will be able to develop intermittent bursts of deep convection as it nears the islands. MARIA needs to slow down a bit if it wants to redevelop a well defined circulation. Even if it degenerates to a tropical wave, which seems most likely at this time, it could still produce 40 - 50mph winds in the Lesser Antilles tomorrow so residence in those islands need to closely monitor this system and still treat it like a tropical storm regardless. Also, given the rapid westward movement over the last 24 hours, it will most likely cross the Lesser Antilles further south than the model consensus currently indicates. Perhaps taking a track similar to the BAM SHALLOW model if it doesn't restrengthen.


1227. ncstorm


dude maria is going more south. Does this mean she will affect Florida? Some of the models now take her close to Florida.
1229. WXHEAD
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

With Maria now a very shallow system it raises the possibility of it remaining embedded in the strong low level flow that has a due West channel right through the Caribbean. 13 N is quite far South for a small weak system to feel the weakness to the N of PR. In fact, 13 N is the latitude of Barbados to put it into perpsective. With Maria already at 50 W this is going to become rather interesting and very soon.



Thanks for that. I was thinking the same thing.
1230. Dakster
Quoting FLdewey:
The bad news: CycloneOz is in the hospital with a respiratory issue

The REAL bad news: He stole DoomCon from me.

CycloneOz Facebook post:

Verdict in. No pneumonia, but an evil convergence of asthma and upper respiratory infection. (shot) Hospital stay 2-3 days. Personal DoomCon set to HEIGHTENED. They told me that 1 more day would have made it much worse. Good thing I'm not that crazy.

I wish him a speedy recovery... and my attorneys will be in touch.


ROFLMAO... I can't wait to see this case in court.

I wish Oz a speedy recovery too. Respiratory infections are no fun...
1231. FLdewey
1232. basti11
Quoting wxobsvps:


*taps foot*, hands on hip.


well the good news for oz is he can rest up and get well for the next storm that comes down the pipe line...oz i hope you get well soon buddy you are a real asset to this blog...
1233. Caner
Quoting basti11:




ok i would love to hear your your opinion how you think NATE is going somewhere else but MEXICO...just give me one good reason NATE could take a north path all the way to the gulfcoast just one...im dying to hear it..


The majority of models have predicted a Northerly track for Nate since they began predicting its formation.

Yesterday, for the first time, a majority of models predicted a westerly track.

Now, as of this morning, many of those models are shifting back north.

Beyond the models, the system is resting, almost stationary, to the right side of a large HP system over the Tex/Mex border.

There is another HP building in north of that one.

I would be more interested in learning why you feel there is nothing possible but a western move, given the models majority consensus over the last few days of a northern motion, and the existing high pressure to the left of it; and now, apparently, new low pressure possibly building in to the right of Nate.
1234. P451
Quoting ncstorm:


thats a big shift for Maria





Irenes footsteps? At least into the Bahamas - East Coast setup is different - I don't believe we see a coastal rider like Irene became.

WRF was actually good with Lee, here is as far as I can get it (+72z) for Nate:

1236. hcubed
Quoting rushisaband:



LMAO .... btw ... what is a spoof?


Kinda like a spork, right?
Quoting P451:


Irenes footsteps? At least into the Bahamas - East Coast setup is different - I don't believe we see a coastal rider like Irene became.



I know a certain someone that may take issue with that stance.

But he's at work on Register 3 right now.
Quoting wxobsvps:


*taps foot*, hands on hip.


That Dewey, he's an original!
1239. P451
Nasa scrubbed it's rocket launch due to high upper level winds. They determined this using a WEATHER BALLOON.


Just goes to show how utterly useless this wind azimuth display is. I think we can stop posting them now.


MLB:

Quoting Caner:


The majority of models have predicted a Northerly track for Nate since they began predicting its formation.

Yesterday, for the first time, a majority of models predicted a westerly track.

Now, as of this morning, many of those models are shifting back north.

Beyond the models, the system is resting, almost stationary, to the right side of a large HP system over the Tex/Mex border.

There is another HP building in north of that one.

I would be more interested in learning why you feel there is nothing possible but a western move, given the models majority consensus over the last few days of a northern motion, and the existing high pressure to the left of it; and now, apparently, new low pressure possibly building in to the right of Nate.


I agree totally....He needs to explain his 98% certainty. There are more reasons for a northward motion than a westward motion right now.
1241. P451
Quoting wxobsvps:


I know a certain someone that may take issue with that stance.

But he's at work on Register 3 right now.


LOL
1242. ncstorm
Quoting P451:


Irenes footsteps? At least into the Bahamas - East Coast setup is different - I don't believe we see a coastal rider like Irene became.



Yeah, I agree as well..
1243. fire635
Quoting basti11:


that wont happen i can assure you of that no place for nate to go except into MEXICO...


More than half of the models disagree with you... very bad advice
Quoting P451:
Nasa scrubbed it's rocket launch due to high upper level winds. They determined this using a WEATHER BALLOON.


Just goes to show how utterly useless this wind azimuth display is. I think we can stop posting them now.


MLB:



Major League Baseball has a wind azimuth display?
1245. Dakster
Quoting FLdewey:


Am I sensing a slight cone shift towards CONUS with the 11am advisory?
1246. FLdewey
Quoting P451:
Nasa scrubbed it's rocket launch due to high upper level winds. They determined this using a WEATHER BALLOON.


Just goes to show how utterly useless this wind azimuth display is. I think we can stop posting them now.


MLB:



Pat just clutched his chest and fell off his chair.
What are the chances Texas gets some rain from Nate?
1248. FLdewey
Quoting Dakster:


Am I sensing a slight cone shift towards CONUS with the 11am advisory?


Heading WestReedWest.
Bad setup for TX wildfires

1250. Dakster
Quoting FLdewey:


Pat just clutched his chest and fell off his chair.


Anyone got an AED handy?
Quoting Dakster:


Anyone got an AED handy?


I have an extra XTRP if we need it.
1252. ackee
Quoting SLU:
Now that MARIA is approaching warmer SST's, it will be able to develop intermittent bursts of deep convection as it nears the islands. MARIA needs to slow down a bit if it wants to redevelop a well defined circulation. Even if it degenerates to a tropical wave, which seems most likely at this time, it could still produce 40 - 50mph winds in the Lesser Antilles tomorrow so residence in those islands need to closely monitor this system and still treat it like a tropical storm regardless. Also, given the rapid westward movement over the last 24 hours, it will most likely cross the Lesser Antilles further south than the model consensus currently indicates. Perhaps taking a track similar to the BAM SHALLOW model if it doesn't restrengthen.


agree
1254. hydrus
1255. Caner
Quoting duajones78413:
What are the chances Texas gets some rain from Nate?


Unless something happens to that obnoxiously stubborn high pressure system that has been squatting over you all summer, slim to none.

All of the northward tracking models right now have the storm either gliding around the HP into LA/Miss or being pulled back into Mex underneath it.
1256. hydrus
1257. ackee
seem like NATE track may shift towards GUFL STATE TO ME there now even split on where this will go mexico or GULF STATE I think more model will shilft towards the GULF STAE
1258. basti11
Quoting Caner:


The majority of models have predicted a Northerly track for Nate since they began predicting its formation.

Yesterday, for the first time, a majority of models predicted a westerly track.

Now, as of this morning, many of those models are shifting back north.

Beyond the models, the system is resting, almost stationary, to the right side of a large HP system over the Tex/Mex border.

There is another HP building in north of that one.

I would be more interested in learning why you feel there is nothing possible but a western move, given the models majority consensus over the last few days of a northern motion, and the existing high pressure to the left of it; and now, apparently, new low pressure possibly building in to the right of Nate.



ok im glad you asked me that question there are 2 factors here ...NATE is sitting in some very warm water and basically not moving...number one factor the strong high over texas will start to build in by friday....well thats in place another high just south of NATE in the caribbean will move north a much weaker high...NATE will feel the influence from the high in the caribbean and start to get nudged north for 6-12 hours then the strong high over texas will build south combined with the massive pool of dry air to nates nw will block NATE from a northward move and possibly shove nate even more on a sw track ..this could end up back on the yucatan as a hurricane...there is no wat nate makes it that far north to the gulfcoast...we are inthe clear like i said 98% for mexico landfall...
1259. kap333
Mmmmmmm GFS Florida Storm Sannnndwichhhhhh

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=20 11090806&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
1261. Buhdog
Quoting basti11:



ok im glad you asked me that question there are 2 factors here ...NATE is sitting in some very warm water and basically not moving...number one factor the strong high over texas will start to build in by friday....well thats in place another high just south of NATE in the caribbean will move north a much weaker high...NATE will feel the influence from the high in the caribbean and start to get nudged north for 6-12 hours then the strong high over texas will build south combined with the massive pool of dry air to nates nw will block NATE from a northward move and possibly shove nate even more on a sw track ..this could end up back on the yucatan as a hurricane...there is no wat nate makes it that far north to the gulfcoast...we are inthe clear like i said 98% for mexico landfall...


who were you before you were basti 11? just curious.
1262. ackee
I think maria COULD very WELL weaken to wave track more towards the winward or central ISLAND more more towrds the west in my view given its current speed and state
1263. 19N81W
Just had a look at last season and I know we are only in September and early sept. at that...we have only had two hurricanes and of the other storms they have seemed relatively harmless? What is the cause of generally weaker systems this year?
Quoting wxobsvps:


I have an extra XTRP if we need it.


Yeaahhh! XTRP Rules! 'Cause it is a Ruler...or, well, at least can be drawn by one...
1266. fire635
Quoting basti11:



ok im glad you asked me that question there are 2 factors here ...NATE is sitting in some very warm water and basically not moving...number one factor the strong high over texas will start to build in by friday....well thats in place another high just south of NATE in the caribbean will move north a much weaker high...NATE will feel the influence from the high in the caribbean and start to get nudged north for 6-12 hours then the strong high over texas will build south combined with the massive pool of dry air to nates nw will block NATE from a northward move and possibly shove nate even more on a sw track ..this could end up back on the yucatan as a hurricane...there is no wat nate makes it that far north to the gulfcoast...we are inthe clear like i said 98% for mexico landfall...


I dont understand why you don't acknowledge the possibility of NATE riding around the ridge to the east and north... especially when there is an undisputable split between reliable models right now. To be 98% sure is misleading to those who don't have any weather knowledge
1267. basti11
Quoting Buhdog:


who were you before you were basti 11 just curious.




that really doesnt matter lets just say i know how to predict hurricane movements and where they are going to go...i can assure you the gulfcoast has nothing to worry about this is MEXICO written all over it....
1268. Caner
Quoting basti11:



ok im glad you asked me that question there are 2 factors here ...NATE is sitting in some very warm water and basically not moving...number one factor the strong high over texas will start to build in by friday....well thats in place another high just south of NATE in the caribbean will move north a much weaker high...NATE will feel the influence from the high in the caribbean and start to get nudged north for 6-12 hours then the strong high over texas will build south combined with the massive pool of dry air to nates nw will block NATE from a northward move and possibly shove nate even more on a sw track ..this could end up back on the yucatan as a hurricane...there is no wat nate makes it that far north to the gulfcoast...we are inthe clear like i said 98% for mexico landfall...


Awful lot of will's in that prediction there, Nostradamus.

With your 98% certitude, you leave little room for any 'mights.'
Just curiosity, Dr Hart - no disrespect - but how were those percentages holding up when Irene came calling?

I think they were pretty similar to Maria.

I sure hope Nate can come a little farther north into TX. TX could use every drop of rain.
1270. Buhdog
Quoting 19N81W:
Just had a look at last season and I know we are only in September and early sept. at that...we have only had two hurricanes and of the other storms they have seemed relatively harmless? What is the cause of generally weaker systems this year?


broad areas of low pressure have not been able to consolidate quickly as they have been close to land have been one factor. There are a few storms that would have gotten much worse without land interaction. Home grown storms like this year tend to do that.
1271. usa777
Quoting ackee:
seem like NATE track may shift towards GUFL STATE TO ME there now even split on where this will go mexico or GULF STATE I think more model will shilft towards the GULF STAE


What?..lol
1272. Buhdog
Quoting basti11:




that really doesnt matter lets just say i know how to predict hurricane movements and where they are going to go...i can assure you the gulfcoast has nothing to worry about this is MEXICO written all over it....


LOL stormtop jr using the flush model again.
Right now Maria is missing the next forecast tropical point as shown in the floater.
Re: 1263 -- 19N81W -- Just had a look at last season and I know we are only in September and early sept. at that...we have only had two hurricanes and of the other storms they have seemed relatively harmless? What is the cause of generally weaker systems this year? -- Is it not because of the astonishing amount of dry air we've had across the Atlantic basin, and as Doc mentioned once, the warm dry air aloft that has squelched any "real" instability?
1275. 19N81W
thanks buhdog...
1276. basti11
Quoting fire635:


I dont understand why you don't acknowledge the possibility of NATE riding around the ridge to the east and north... especially when there is an undisputable split between reliable models right now. To be 98% sure is misleading to those who don't have any weather knowledge



well i can tell you i have lots of knowledge when it comes to gulf hurricanes in the BOC...i see what you are saying i would agree with you if the high pressure south of nate in the caribbean would be stronger its weak so your thinking is just not going to happen unless NATE would stall in the BOC for 5 days...the huge strong high over texas will not let that happen...this is cut and dry i dont care what the models say MEXICO will get this one...
1277. help4u
cooler 500mb temps,coolest in 30 years= weaker storms
12Z NAM looks like it MAY be setting up to come into more agreement with GFS/CMC.



1279. 19N81W
http://www.stormpulse.com/2010-hurricane-season
http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-irene-2011
Quoting 19N81W:
Just had a look at last season and I know we are only in September and early sept. at that...we have only had two hurricanes and of the other storms they have seemed relatively harmless? What is the cause of generally weaker systems this year?


Large amounts of dry air both off Africa and then as storms near the Texas & Southeast coasts, storms have been pulling in dry contential air being intensified from droughts over the Southern U.S this season.
1281. will40
wtg Stormtop you have nailed another one good job
1282. Buhdog
Quoting basti11:



well i can tell you i have lots of knowledge when it comes to gulf hurricanes in the BOC...i see what you are saying i would agree with you if the high pressure south of nate in the caribbean would be stronger its weak so your thinking is just not going to happen unless NATE would stall in the BOC for 5 days...the huge strong high over texas will not let that happen...this is cut and dry i dont care what the models say MEXICO will get this one...


and the good news is that if you are wrong you can just change your handle again and comeback without egg on your face and start all over again! How cool is that?
1283. Jax82
Quoting P451:
Nasa scrubbed it's rocket launch due to high upper level winds. They determined this using a WEATHER BALLOON.


Just goes to show how utterly useless this wind azimuth display is. I think we can stop posting them now.


MLB:



I thought thats how we were tracking Nate towards NOLA?
1284. 19N81W
thanks for the replies guys...
Looks like Nate may ride up that western periphery of the Atl high....but not too sure.

Quoting basti11:



well i can tell you i have lots of knowledge when it comes to gulf hurricanes in the BOC...i see what you are saying i would agree with you if the high pressure south of nate in the caribbean would be stronger its weak so your thinking is just not going to happen unless NATE would stall in the BOC for 5 days...the huge strong high over texas will not let that happen...this is cut and dry i dont care what the models say MEXICO will get this one...


Mr Basti11, that is a lucid, intelligent, well thought-out objection.

How will Maria's increased speed affect her forecast track?
1288. basti11
Quoting Caner:


Awful lot of will's in that prediction there, Nostradamus.

With your 98% certitude, you leave little room for any 'mights.'



im just telling you if you know anything about hurricanes with this setup over nate you should see only one track and thats mexico...the DRY AIR will keep nate where he is and not move north...just giving my 98% for sure nate is mexicos storm without a doubt...everyone can make up for last week and hit the beaches NATE will not bother them no problems from nate..
1289. hydrus
This would not be good..HWRF..Link
Even with many models hinting at the westward turn and Mexico landfall, many of us here seem to have the gut feeling that a more northward track is likely. But even so, it's not the track we want to have happen. After 10-15" of rainfall across the area from Lee, the rivers are elevated, the storages are full, and we wont be as lucky with minimal flood impacts as we were last weekend.
Since Nate can't defeat the high over Texas, I hope he stays far away from us. Lee caused high winds over E. Texas that fanned huge fires. With some of the tracking models showing that Nate could pull a similar path, I'm sure fire departments here are very concerned. The FD's are running out of funds for operations, the equipments suffering years of wear and tear in months, and the staff is suffering fatigue. We are setup for the perfect 'fire'storm over the winter months if rain does not come.

To people in drought stricken areas.

Remove all brush and tall grass near structures on your property. Implore your neighbors to do the same. Dense groves of small pine trees explode in to flame when burned, have them removed if they are close to buildings. Avoid all spark causing activities outside, smoking, grilling, welding, driving in tall grass have all started fires this season.
1292. Dakster
Quoting hydrus:
This would not be good..HWRF..Link


I guess that depends on where you live as to whether that is good or bad... (j/k)
1293. fire635
Quoting basti11:



well i can tell you i have lots of knowledge when it comes to gulf hurricanes in the BOC...i see what you are saying i would agree with you if the high pressure south of nate in the caribbean would be stronger its weak so your thinking is just not going to happen unless NATE would stall in the BOC for 5 days...the huge strong high over texas will not let that happen...this is cut and dry i dont care what the models say MEXICO will get this one...


Guess I'll have to agree to disagree with you... NOTHING is 98% sure at this point. When Nate goes where he goes we will see who was right. I say Florida panhandle to Miss/Ala border.
1294. Buhdog

Quoting WhoDat42:


Mr Basti11, that is a lucid, intelligent, well thought-out objection.


Link


over ruled!
Look where Maria is in this image

1296. angiest
Quoting RitaEvac:
Bad setup for TX wildfires



That sure is what it is looking like.
1297. SLU
Quoting Buhdog:


Link


over ruled!


that was the point!!
Flight pattern for this afternoon's Gulfstream IV Synoptic Surveillance for Nate.





Would not be suprised if NWS stations along the Gulf Coast also do upper air at 18Z

1300. hydrus
ECMWF operational..144 hours..
Quoting wxobsvps:
12Z NAM looks like it MAY be setting up to come into more agreement with GFS/CMC.




That spinning blob in the Gulf of Honduras looks interesting, too.
1302. basti11
Quoting Buhdog:


and the good news is that if you are wrong you can just change your handle again and comeback without egg on your face and start all over again! How cool is that?



no need to change my handle im giving you a 98% that nate goes into MEXICO...like i said the 2% is just in case NATE would hang around down there for 5 days then if that happened and its a big if NATE would then have the opportunity to move north towads the cetral GOM...2% THAT HAPPENS.if it does we will know because nate will not move until tuesday..
1303. Buhdog
Quoting WhoDat42:


that was the point!!


my favorite movie of all-time! I was with you the whole way!
Quoting fire635:


Guess I'll have to agree to disagree with you... NOTHING is 98% sure at this point. When Nate goes where he goes we will see who was right. I say Florida panhandle to Miss/Ala border.


Make sure you schedule that for a Mon. or Tues. landing so we at least get a day out of work this time and not just have our weekend rained out LOL!
1305. Dakster
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Flight pattern for this afternoon's Gulfstream IV Synoptic Surveillance for Nate.





Would not be suprised if NWS stations along the Gulf Coast also do upper air at 18Z



When I first looked at it, I thought that was the potential track for Nate...
1306. hydrus
Quoting Dakster:


I guess that depends on where you live as to whether that is good or bad... (j/k)
The situation in the tropics could get really ugly...Especially when the MJO rolls back in.
IMO - just analyzing the 12, 06 GFS runs - I think that Nate can make a little more N Mexico / extreme S TX landfall - similar to a TS that hit around the border area early last year.

I think that Maria makes a more southerly track and then once beyond say the Bahamas, the track will either come extremely close to FL / SC/ NC coast before turning sharply back N to NE towards Bermuda OR scenario #2 would be a N course into the east side of NC.

I think the 3 day track is fairly accurate for Nate, and for Maria I think the 3 day track may adjust for her shifting somewhat south. Long range track for Maria looks more complicated than Nate which begs the question - ....how do you solve a problem like Maria? How do you catch a cloud and pin it down? How do you find a word that means Maria? A flibbertijibbet! A will-o'-the wisp! A clown!

Sorry- couldnt resist
1308. Buhdog
Quoting basti11:



no need to change my handle im giving you a 98% that nate goes into MEXICO...like i said the 2% is just in case NATE would hang around down there for 5 days then if that happened and its a big if NATE would then have the opportunity to move north towads the cetral GOM...2% THAT HAPPENS.if it does we will know because nate will not move until tuesday..


dude, it's all good. At lest you back it up with reasons why...if more people did that it would be better wunderworld. I would personally never put 98% on anything...lol that is really putting yourself out there is all. Thanks for you conviction i guess.
1309. basti11
Quoting 69Viking:


Make sure you schedule that for a Mon. or Tues. landing so we at least get a day out of work this time and not just have our weekend rained out LOL!



i want you to answer a very important question for me how is nate going to move into the DRY AIR and survive also not to mention the WINDSHEAR if he goes NORTH like you said...no way in hell that can happen...
1310. 19N81W
hydrus...can you tell us why?...not being rude just want to know as I live in the tropics and travel often.

All I see is lots of dry air and nothing getting really organized?
1311. SLU
...MARIA MOVING WESTWARD IN A HURRY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 51.2W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


1312. SLU
000
WTNT44 KNHC 081443
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011

MARIA IS MOVING VERY FAST...AT ABOUT 19-22 KNOTS...AND PROBABLY NO
LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL CHECK IF THAT IS THE CASE LATER TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AND
CONSISTS OF A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL SWIRL WITH SOME PATCHES OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE RAINBANDS ARE STILL 40 KNOTS AND THIS
IS THE INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...EVEN IF MARIA DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL
WAVE...CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
REGENERATE AS IT SLOWS DOWN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT AS
HOSTILE AS THEY WERE INDICATING IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW AN AGGRESSIVE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN.

MARIA IS SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT AND LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS
FOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
AFTER THAT...A WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ALLOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE CLUSTERED HAVING MARIA OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS IN FIVE DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 13.0N 51.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 13.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 13.8N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 14.5N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 16.0N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 19.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 22.5N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 25.0N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




1313. SLU
Major southward adjustment in MARIA's track.
1314. SLU
NEW BLOG
1315. basti11
the BAD NEWS for MEXICO nate could turn into a very powerful hurricane with the ssts being so warm down ther in the BOC...i would not be surprise for nate to go into a RI stage as the high from the caribbean builds northward....this is a very DANGEROUS scenario playing out for the people of VERACRUZ...
1316. Caner
Quoting basti11:



im just telling you if you know anything about hurricanes with this setup over nate you should see only one track and thats mexico...the DRY AIR will keep nate where he is and not move north...just giving my 98% for sure nate is mexicos storm without a doubt...everyone can make up for last week and hit the beaches NATE will not bother them no problems from nate..



Yeah, i have only been through the eyewall of David, Hugo, Fran, Georges, Ivan, (twice), Katrina, Rita and Gustav... With a near misses on Andrew and Emily. (Emily stayed just offshore, Andrew was just too violent, i (wisely) backed off about 40 miles North of Homestead.

Plus quite a few tropical storms.

I probably know very little about hurricanes compared to someone like you, however.

I know with a 98% certainty that i could never make a landfall prediction with 98% certainty this early, and in such a weak environment...

That's probably due to my inexperience, however...
Quoting Buhdog:


dude, it's all good. At lest you back it up with reasons why...if more people did that it would be better wunderworld. I would personally never put 98% on anything...lol that is really putting yourself out there is all. Thanks for you conviction i guess.


+1000... regardless if your right or wrong, you made a forecast and back it up with your reasoning behind it. Most mets say model consenus and are afraid to make a prediction for fear of being wrong. Mother nature will do whatever she wants regardless of models or predictions.
Quoting basti11:



i want you to answer a very important question for me how is nate going to move into the DRY AIR and survive also not to mention the WINDSHEAR if he goes NORTH like you said...no way in hell that can happen...


I never said he was going anywhere, I simply wishcast him to arrive on Mon. or Tues. IF he decides to come this way like Lee did and NOT ruin my weekend with 9 inches of rain again. I think it's a toss up right now, 50/50 that he goes North and then West in Mexico or he goes NE towards the Eastern Gulf Coast. If the reason I give it a 50% chance of heading NE is that if you look at the water vapor loop of the Eastern U.S. you can see the cutoff low left over from Lee is moving West, maybe slightly SW and that COULD open a weakness for Lee to move off to the NE. Too many variables right now to say more than 50% one way or the other.
1319. dmh1026
Quoting basti11:
the BAD NEWS for MEXICO nate could turn into a very powerful hurricane with the ssts being so warm down ther in the BOC...i would not be surprise for nate to go into a RI stage as the high from the caribbean builds northward....this is a very DANGEROUS scenario playing out for the people of VERACRUZ...
You are amazing. You give better forecasts than the NHC. NOT!
Texas high and dry bolstered by dust shield.
1321. hcubed
Quoting basti11:



im just telling you if you know anything about hurricanes with this setup over nate you should see only one track and thats mexico...the DRY AIR will keep nate where he is and not move north...just giving my 98% for sure nate is mexicos storm without a doubt...everyone can make up for last week and hit the beaches NATE will not bother them no problems from nate..


And if anyone dies because of rip currents, well, shame on you for listening to this guy.

No matter WHO he was or whatever "experience" he has, it's just plain dumb to make comments like this.
1322. kwgirl
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
IMO - just analyzing the 12, 06 GFS runs - I think that Nate can make a little more N Mexico / extreme S TX landfall - similar to a TS that hit around the border area early last year.

I think that Maria makes a more southerly track and then once beyond say the Bahamas, the track will either come extremely close to FL / SC/ NC coast before turning sharply back N to NE towards Bermuda OR scenario #2 would be a N course into the east side of NC.

I think the 3 day track is fairly accurate for Nate, and for Maria I think the 3 day track may adjust for her shifting somewhat south. Long range track for Maria looks more complicated than Nate which begs the question - ....how do you solve a problem like Maria? How do you catch a cloud and pin it down? How do you find a word that means Maria? A flibbertijibbet! A will-o'-the wisp! A clown!

Sorry- couldnt resist
LOL I was singing right along with you:)