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Tropical Storm Watches for Guillermo; 95L Clips Coast; Soudelor Still a Super Typhoon

By: Bob Henson 11:06 PM GMT on August 04, 2015

Tropical storm watches were hoisted Tuesday morning for the islands of Hawaii, Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe as Tropical Storm Guillermo headed toward the island chain. At 5:00 pm EDT Tuesday, Guillermo was located about 400 miles east of Hilo, packing sustained winds of 70 mph. Wind shear continues taking a toll on Guillermo, with most of the storm’s convection shunted to its northeast side. Drier air and increasing wind shear along Guillermo’s path should prompt a weakening trend later tonight or tomorrow, despite sea-surface temperatures that remain above 27°C (1°C to 2°C above average) along Guillermo’s path. Even the southernmost dynamical model (ECMWF) keeps Guillermo’s west-northwest track far enough north of the islands to avoid tropical storm impacts. NOAA’s probabilistic wind guidance gives less than a 10% chance of tropical storm force winds over Hawaii in the next 120 hours.


Figure 1. A composite (RGB) satellite image of the increasingly sheared Tropical Storm Guillermo, collected by the GOES West satellite at 2200 GMT Tuesday (6:00 pm EDT). Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 2. GOES infrared satellite image of Invest 95L, from 2145 GMT Tuesday (5:45 pm EDT), shows convection mainly offshore of North Carolina. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Invest 95L clips the Carolina coast
After it triggered widespread flash flooding and river flooding over central Florida, especially in the Tampa Bay area, Invest 95L has been kinder to the southeastern states. At 4:35 pm EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center placed the center of 95L near Wilmington, NC, moving northeast very near the coastline. A large but disorganized shield of showers and thunderstorms has remained mainly southeast of 95L’s center, sparing the Carolinas from much impact side from pockets of heavy rain near the Outer Banks. Reconnaissance flights found offshore flight-level winds of 60 mph at 4:35 pm EDT Tuesday in gales southeast of the center, but winds have been quite light along the coast near 95L, generally less than 20 mph both inland and at near-shore buoys. Phase-space diagrams from Florida State University show that 95L is already exhibiting characteristics of a cold-core system, and the asymmetry of 95L should grow as it shoots northeast and becomes entangled in a midlatitude frontal system. Still, NHC gives 95L a 30% chance of organization over the next several days, and several dynamical models suggest the system could intensify just enough to potentially earn it a name over the next 24-36 hours.


Figure 3. Visible image of Super Typhoon Soudelor, collected by the MTSAT satellite at 2201 GMT Tuesday (6:01 pm EDT). Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

A slightly weaker Soudelor threatens Taiwan
Having completed an eyewall regeneration cycle, Super Typhoon Soudelor was sporting a less impressive convective shield and slightly weaker sustained winds on Tuesday, but it remained a formidable storm. Peak sustained winds were estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) at 130 knots (around 150 mph) at 1800 GMT (2:00 pm EDT) Tuesday. Soudelor remains on a classic west-northwest path around the south side of an upper-level ridge, and models are still in close agreement on a landfall in Taiwan on Friday night or Saturday morning local time. The JTWC is calling for gradual weakening over the next couple of days, mainly due to subsidence related to a nearby tropospheric upper-level trough (TUTT). Apart from the TUTT, conditions are highly supportive of some eventual restrengthening. Category 4 strength is possible at landfall, according to the JTWC forecast from 2100 GMT Tuesday (5:00 pm EDT). Soudelor could end up even stronger than predicted if another rapid intensification cycle were to take place (such cycles are difficult to predict in advance). Soudelor will likely go on to strike mainland China as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 4. Flooding caused by heavy rain brought by Typhoon Morakot across Pingtung county, southern Taiwan, on August 8, 2009. Morakot, which means 'emerald' in Thai, dumped more than 1,255 millimetres (49 inches) of rain on southern Pingtung county. Image credit: AFP/AFP/Getty Images.

Taiwan is familiar with the strong winds and torrential rain brought by major typhoons. From 1897 to 2003, the island recorded 383 typhoon landfalls, an average of about 3.5 per year. Despite this experience, the nation remains vulnerable to flooding and landslides/mudslides, given its dense infrastructure and population and the unavoidable nature of its highly mountainous terrain. The most disastrous storm in recent years to strike Taiwan was 2009’s Typhoon Morakot, which caused more than 450 deaths and some $3.3 billion US in damage. Morakot was only a Category 1 storm, with peak 1-minute sustained winds of 90 mph, but it moved in a leisurely cyclonic loop across northern Taiwan, prolonging the widespread intense rainfall. A 2011study in the Journal of Geophysical Research found that Morakot’s slow motion and interaction with a monsoon-related belt of southwesterly winds played major roles in the disaster. Morakot brought Taiwan its all-time rainfall records for a 24-hour period (1403 mm or 55.2” at Weiliaoshan) and for a 48-hour period (2327 mm or 91.6” at Alishan). Soudelor is a powerful typhoon, but its expected motion at a steady clip across Taiwan should help reduce the risk of such exorbitant rainfall totals.

Our next blog update will be courtesy of wunderblogger Steve Gregory, who is planning a guest post early Wednesday afternoon (around 2PM CDT). You can follow Steve’s regular posts at his WU site.

Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Henson!
good blog!!
   Thanks for the new Post....
2016 could rival 2010 if this happens








Quoting 5. SLU:

2016 could rival 2010 if this happens









it's about time. Haven't had a "real" hurricane season since 2011 in the atlantic.
Tropical storm watches were hoisted Wednesday morning for the islands of Hawaii, Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe
Pretty sure today is "Typo Tuesday," not "Weird Wednesday."
:)

Just the same, glad the Guillermo forecast is looking good for the islands.
I'm here battening down the hatches in preparation for ex-94L. Hope Tx13 made it through 95L ok today (running joke from the last blog).
Quoting 5. SLU:

2016 could rival 2010 if this happens


Hey SLU, are you putting up your storm shutters for 94L?
Where is ex 94L located?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface data indicate that the area of low pressure located over
southeastern North Carolina has become less defined during the past
several hours. The associated thunderstorm activity also remains
poorly organized, and the potential for this system to become a
tropical cyclone is decreasing. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to continue to produce gale-force winds over
portions of the western Atlantic tonight before merging with a
frontal system tomorrow. Additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Quoting 9. LemieT:

I'm here battening down the hatches in preparation for ex-94L. Hope Tx13 made it through 95L ok today (running joke from the last blog).
Next in the line of fire from 94L are the Caymans.
14. SLU
Quoting 10. LemieT:



I'm more looking at how dangerous next season could be. We might pass 20 storms if the CFS verifies.
Quoting 9. LemieT:

I'm here battening down the hatches in preparation for ex-94L. Hope Tx13 made it through 95L ok today (running joke from the last blog).


Lol good lucky with 94L

Quoting 11. saltydog1327:

Where is ex 94L located?


Current estimated LLCOC for fmr 94L is Near 12.0N 46.0W give or take somewhere there about

Quoting 13. washingtonian115:

Next in the line of fire from 94L are the Caymans.


Hey wash where the hell did this come from huh

Let's see if it can make it even close the the Caribbean first before you start pushing people's buttons
Quoting 5. SLU:

2016 could rival 2010 if this happens









Quoting 14. SLU:



I'm more looking at how dangerous next season could be. We might pass 20 storms if the CFS verifies.


Hmm maybe more that 27 we go maybe 30 or 32 storms 15 hurricanes 10 majors 5 cat 5 lol
That would the hurricane season of a lifetime
Quoting 16. wunderkidcayman:



Hmm maybe more that 27 we go maybe 30 or 32 storms 15 hurricanes 10 majors 5 cat 5 lol
That would the hurricane season of a lifetime


Maybe early season starter and late ending too lol
Quoting 16. wunderkidcayman:



Hmm maybe more that 27 we go maybe 30 or 32 storms 15 hurricanes 10 majors 5 cat 5 lol
That would the hurricane season of a lifetime
I already have my numbers: 37.20.16 -_-
Quoting 13. washingtonian115:

Next in the line of fire from 94L are the Caymans.


So slow, we're coming up with fantasy swirls of imminent destruction. Africa wave show: pretty, impressive, explosive overland convection, splash, dead.
Quoting 15. wunderkidcayman:



Lol good lucky with 94L



Current estimated LLCOC for fmr 94L is Near 12.0N 46.0W give or take somewhere there about



Hey wash where the hell did this come from huh

Let's see if it can make it even close the the Caribbean first before you start pushing people's buttons


Not fully closed via this rapidscat as earlier today
FWIW, my very early thinking is near to below average next year. +ENSO is going to drag, AMO will not rise as much as CFS forecasts, and there remains the question of our Atlantic instability.

However, this is subject to a lot of change. Unlike this year and last, next year's seasonal forecast may not be a slam dunk. More conflicting factors than we've seen lately. So the potential is higher at least.
You know the hurricane season is slow when the blog is spending more time talking about the next year rather than the ongoing one. :)
Quoting 21. MAweatherboy1:

FWIW, my very early thinking is near to below average next year. +ENSO is going to drag, AMO will not rise as much as CFS forecasts, and there remains the question of our Atlantic instability.

However, this is subject to a lot of change. Unlike this year and last, next year's seasonal forecast may not be a slam dunk. More conflicting factors than we've seen lately. So the potential is higher at least.
ever since the 2012 season, the atlantic hurricane season has been a big ?, seems like the past 2 seasons showed the enso is not the most important factor when it comes to number of hurricanes and powerful storms

OK, here we go again. Another nice looking wave has just come off the African coast. Will it go poof like all the others or will this be the one that survives the rocky road ahead. Some nice banding along the lower flank, don't you agree?
I saw this picture on a weather page taken from Rhode Island after severe storms rolled through and uprooted this tree taking the lawn with it. WOAH!
Quoting 23. wunderweatherman123:

ever since the 2012 season, the atlantic hurricane season has been a big ?, seems like the past 2 seasons showed the enso is not the most important factor when it comes to number of hurricanes and powerful storms

Eh, not so much a big ?, more like a big zzzzzzzzzzzz. 2013 is the only real enigma of the group, such an unexpected bust. This year and last were obvious candidates for a lack of activity. Although 2012 was supposed to be quiet, and it was far from it. I disagree with the assessment that 2012 wasn't a "real" hurricane season, quite the opposite, however it is possible some changes began to occur that year that set up the recent quiet spell. Only time will tell if it's a multi decadal lull. Heck, we may need 6-8 more years to really confirm it, and only in hindsight could we say "The AMO flipped in 2013." And maybe it hasn't flipped. Plenty of questions in that department.
Quoting 24. HurriHistory:


OK, here we go again. Another nice looking wave has just come off the African coast. Will it go poof like all the others or will this be the one that survives the rocky road ahead. Some nice banding along the lower flank, don't you agree?
i agree with you!


we have a floater up now on this low!


Florida must have good drainage, was expecting to see more flood advisories/warnings that are currently being posted. That's a good thing
Quoting 25. Climate175:

I saw this picture on a weather page taken from Rhode Island after severe storms rolled through and uprooted this tree taking the lawn with it. WOAH!


Signage in the background looks a bit askew as well..
Time for a yard sale?
*Edit:
Or maybe Yard for sale is better said.. :)
Quoting 31. pcola57:



Signage in the background looks a bit askew as well..
Time for a yard sale?


Love the "dark" humor on this blog ..I dont believe that I have ever seen a picture quite like this one where the "yard" comes our of the ground with the tree ...if they flop it back down will it reestablish and continue to grow?
Quoting 32. txjac:



Love the humor on this blog ..I dont believe that I have ever seen a picture quite like this one where the "yard" comes our of the ground with the tree ...if they flop it back down will it reestablish and continue to grow?


I think it would txjac..
Although probably lean a little.. :)
Might as well take what we can get... Wave off Africa is holding up well.

Quoting 24. HurriHistory:


OK, here we go again. Another nice looking wave has just come off the African coast. Will it go poof like all the others or will this be the one that survives the rocky road ahead. Some nice banding along the lower flank, don't you agree?
Less poofing ahead.
WP132015 - Typhoon (>=96 kt) SOUDELOR

8:00 in the evening ...real feel at 100F, temp at 92F
Attempted to take the dog for a "real" walk ... we didnt make it very far before we decided it was still too hot.
Will try again in an hour or so
Quoting 34. Drakoen:

Might as well take what we can get... Wave off Africa is holding up well.




invest-caster'
Still a very well organized Typhoon, albeit weaker

Quoting 36. Patrap:

WP132015 - Typhoon (>=96 kt) SOUDELOR




Beautiful..
Been a tight wound little sucker..
Cranking..
Quoting 39. Patrap:



invest-caster'
Quoting 39. Patrap:



invest-caster'


Invest? Jumping the gun already Pat?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. There has been little change with a low pressure system located
about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for development, and this low is likely to become a
tropical depression during the next couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Quoting 43. Drakoen:



Invest? Jumping the gun already Pat?


No, we have many members that fill that bill easily though.

I worry when the Puter models end lines start reaching 25N and 85 west
Plus the new wave exiting Africa is surely Cayman bound already.

: P
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092015
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 04 2015

AFTER A BRIEF INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION LAST NIGHT...THE
APPEARANCE OF GUILLERMO IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES HAS BECOME DEGRADED
ONCE AGAIN. THE SYSTEM IS VERY ASYMMETRIC WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND SOME OF THE CIRRUS
REACHING CALIFORNIA. A USAF RESERVE WEATHER RECON MISSION THIS
MORNING REPORTED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 65 KT AND A MAXIMUM
SFMR VALUE OF 55 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INBOUND LEG FROM
THE NORTHWEST PICKED UP SFMR VALUES OF 65 AND 69 KT BUT THIS WAS
THROUGH A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION AND IS CONSIDERED NOT
REPRESENTATIVE. BASED ON THE ADJUSTMENT TO THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
AND THE VALID SFMR VALUES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED
AT 60 KT.

GUILLERMO HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE ALOFT WITH THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE AT 310/09 KT.
THE RELIABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED NORTH A BIT FOR
THIS PACKAGE...AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTH
SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN RESPONSE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE ECMWF FORECAST THROUGH 48
HOURS THEN SOUTH OF MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE BEYOND THAT TIME
FRAME. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AT ITS CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH. IF THIS MOTION CONTINUES...AND THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY MAY BE
CANCELED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE CIMSS ANALYSIS AT 1800 UTC SHOWED OVER 26 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR
IMPACTING GUILLERMO. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. IT IS ALSO MOVING TOWARD A DRIER
AIRMASS. THESE FACTORS SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN GUILLERMO EVEN THOUGH
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ADEQUATE. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHARP
WEAKENING WITH DISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS. HWRF MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM
NEAR 50 KT FOLLOWED BY A SHARPER WEAKENING TREND. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS WITH GUILLERMO STEADILY WEAKENING TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AFTER DAY 3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 20.2N 149.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 21.0N 150.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 22.0N 152.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 23.0N 154.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 24.0N 155.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 25.6N 159.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 27.0N 163.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 28.5N 167.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
ASCAT A 25km Blob off Africa
Quoting 46. Patrap:

Plus the new wave exiting Africa is surely Cayman bound already.

: P


Everything is Cayman bound. I think I see a south drift with 95L.
Yet warmer H2O in it's path.
Quoting 20. stormpetrol:



Not fully closed via this rapidscat as earlier today


It was fully closed on ASCAT A and B and on the last few vis satellite and satellite wind data

Also vort data suggest centre getting better defined and stronger
Quoting 49. Drakoen:



Everything is Cayman bound. I think I see a south drift with 95L.


I'd like to be Cayman bound myself actually..
*Already drifted to the south so I am ready.. :)
Quoting 49. Drakoen:



Everything is Cayman bound. I think I see a south drift with 95L.


You guys can talk some B*S

Who gave you guys the idea that anything is Cayman bound
Anyway 95L will die somewhere in the cold North Central Atlantic waters
From the NHC TWD...

TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N24W TO 10N20W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH
700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 13W-26W... FOCUSED ON A MID-LEVEL
MONSOONAL GYRE CENTERED ON A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N17W.
THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING WESTWARD AND COME
INTO PHASE WITH A MID-LATITUDE 700 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 28W-
32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 15W-
29W.
Anyway can't wait for winter season 15/16
It seems like it will be a cold and wet one for Cayman
Quoting 55. wunderkidcayman:

Who gave you guys the idea that anything is Cayman bound
Well you said that 94L will be a low rider into the caribbean (Hey your words not mine) and will magically survive the harsh conditions. After when we told you multiple times that dry air will get it and the wall of shear waiting in the caribbean would destroy it but you were insistent....
Quoting 14. SLU:



I'm more looking at how dangerous next season could be. We might pass 20 storms if the CFS verifies.


If that 2016 forecast verifies, we could be in for a ripping season. Might see a Tomas repeat or worse. I'd say either way there is hope for a lot more rain at least.
So I guess Guillermo nor Godzilla is destroying Hawaii this go around..




another storm going north of the islands as usual..I know the locals are happy if anyone..I guess one day that luck will run out..but not this time thank goodness

Quoting 46. Patrap:

Plus the new wave exiting Africa is surely Cayman bound already.

: P
Like just about every other Twave so far this season .... literally... after which they skip the basin and go on to become majors in the EPac .... :-P
Quoting 49. Drakoen:



Everything is Cayman bound. I think I see a south drift with 95L.


Actually W by SW or maybe WSW with a tilt to due S of W curving near 19 N and 81 W across Cuba !!.

LMAO. You gotta love this blog :-)
I agree w/ LemieT ... there's a fair chance that ex-94L will bring some rain showers to at least some parts of the Winwards ... I don't think we can realistically expect much more. However, I nevertheless DO expect to see it as a named storm down the road in the EPac .... so long as the circulation can survive to at least a certain extent.

Meanwhile we are on round 2 of thunderstorms and rain here, now that the sun has gone down.



Looks like central Cuba is getting the greatest impact from this trough atm, though.
Quoting 65. kmanislander:



Actually W by SW or maybe WSW with a tilt to due S of W curving near 19 N and 81 W across Cuba !!.

LMAO. You gotta love this blog :-)
:o) Looks like you are on the money .... lol ...

Quoting 67. unknowncomic:


That is a SERIOUSLY not good track. :o/ Only thing to hope for is a swift passage. I'm still recalling the airplane crash last year during the landfalling typhoon Matmo...
Quoting 59. washingtonian115:

Well you said that 94L will be a low rider into the caribbean (Hey your words not mine) and will magically survive the harsh conditions. After when we told you multiple times that dry air will get it and the wall of shear waiting in the caribbean would destroy it but you were insistent....

Well so far
It's a low rider
So far
It's surviving
So far it ain't making dry air stop it
So far low shear from where it is to 65W-70W in the Caribbean and continues to fall
So far it's not destroyed
It did weaken so much that it was held by a thread and even NHC dropped designation but it held on tight and now it's rebuilding back
Quoting 65. kmanislander:



Actually W by SW or maybe WSW with a tilt to due S of W curving near 19 N and 81 W across Cuba !!.

LMAO. You gotta love this blog :-)

Yeah this blog is a Big joke



Anyway the islands are in bad need of rain and a cool down
Have you guys gotten any rain today down in the Caymans? Looks like this is just now drifting far enough south ...
Quoting 66. BahaHurican:

I agree w/ LemieT ... there's a fair chance that ex-94L will bring some rain showers to at least some parts of the Winwards ... I don't think we can realistically expect much more. However, I nevertheless DO expect to see it as a named storm down the road in the EPac .... so long as the circulation can survive to at least a certain extent.

Meanwhile we are on round 2 of thunderstorms and rain here, now that the sun has gone down.



Looks like central Cuba is getting the greatest impact from this trough atm, though.


Hi Baha. I see the thunderstorm you are under. Got 5 bolts on slow-motion video. Can't wait to see what I Got!
Quoting 72. wunderkidcayman:

Anyway the islands are in bad need of rain and a cool down
Ya think??? I have been so grateful all day for the overcast skies and the rain, which have kept us from the 100-degree feeling days we had last week. It's been BAD.


the water getting warm on the east coast!!
Quoting 74. Thrawst:



Hi Baha. I see the thunderstorm you are under. Got 5 bolts on slow-motion video. Can't wait to see what I Got!
Hey, man! Are you home? You have a better perspective for the thunderstorms than I do right now ... though I guess I should at least go outside to see if I can capture anything.... be sure to post what you got ....
Quoting 71. wunderkidcayman:


Yeah this blog is a Big joke


Don't be so down kid..
Lots of season left..
It's a funny little world we live in..
And your in a spot to watch IMO..
So keep your tropical chin up my friend.. :)
94L seems to be making a come back. At the moment it is in a low sheer environment,and will be so for awhile.it is beneath SST of 29-30 deg C and will be so for sometime, The only impediment so far is the dry air to the north of the system.
Quoting 79. stoormfury:

94L seems to be making a come back. At the moment it is in a low sheer environment,and will be so for awhile.it is beneath SST of 29-30 deg C and will be so for sometime, The only impediment so far is the dry air to the north of the system.
Only real chance it has is this little spot between where it is and the Antilles... which is why I'm thinking it has a good chance of bringing some rain with it as it goes through. Doubt it gets it together enough to get back onto the NHC invest list, though.... much less a TD ...

But we shall see - shortly.
I love sitting back and watching some people give each other grief on here... classic stuff... I am also very appreciative that some of these same people (not all) answer serious questions when I throw them out there! There is never a "bust" season though.. I moved from the coast of MS to surfside beach, TX and very early in the season I had nothing but rain for days straight from our little gulf storm we had... Yes it wasn't "major" but there was a lot.... A LOT ...of flooding around here..
Quoting 71. wunderkidcayman:


Yeah this blog is a Big joke






It aint all bad here as they say, provided you don't take yourself too seriously, and, most importantly, you don't get too worked up every time it looks like something may spin up.

Even with El Nino we will get a couple of interesting systems before all is said and done. The wave just exiting Africa may have some promise.

Quoting 73. BahaHurican:

Have you guys gotten any rain today down in the Caymans? Looks like this is just now drifting far enough south ...


I just got back from my walk, thunder and lightning in the distance but no rain , all I want is some rain the heat is terrible!

wasn't for dry air ex94L might have a slight chance! Then again it seems to have a talent for survival!
Quoting 83. stormpetrol:



I just got back from my walk, thunder and lightning in the distance but no rain , all I want is some rain the heat is terrible!


I can hear the thunder now South of us but after the deluge in early June it has been very hot, dry and dusty. We had about a quarter inch yesterday but little in the way of typical afternoon thunderstorms that we come to expect this time of year.
Quoting 85. kmanislander:



I can hear the thunder now South of us but after the deluge in early June it has been very hot, dry and dusty. We had about a quarter inch yesterday but little in the way of typical afternoon thunderstorms that we come to expect this time of year.


Here too in TX (surfside beach) since our little storm we have seen (at least I haven't) zero rain... and with temps at 98..99..100... I welcome a soaking!


All in the distance, we are in the dry spot
Quoting 85. kmanislander:



I can hear the thunder now South of us but after the deluge in early June it has been very hot, dry and dusty. We had about a quarter inch yesterday but little in the way of typical afternoon thunderstorms that we come to expect this time of year.


So true, I can't remember when I felt it this hot!
Quoting 86. saltydog1327:



Here too in TX (surfside beach) since our little storm we have seen (at least I haven't) zero rain... and with temps at 98..99..100... I welcome a soaking!


The building El Nino is the likely culprit behind pattern changes in the weather. Perhaps this "winter "we will see more cold fronts and lower temps in the NW Caribbean.
Quoting 83. stormpetrol:



I just got back from my walk, thunder and lightning in the distance but no rain , all I want is some rain the heat is terrible!
I feel you, my brother. .... hopefully some of what's drifting in the area will actually pass over your head ... sure worked for me...
Quoting 88. stormpetrol:



So true, I can't remember when I felt it this hot!


Mid 90s every day.
Quoting 89. kmanislander:



The building El Nino is the likely culprit behind pattern changes in the weather. Perhaps this "winter "we will see more cold fronts and lower temps in the NW Caribbean.
Supposed to bring cooler than average temps for Jan / Feb period ... but we shall see.

shear seems to be on the decrease for now
Quoting 85. kmanislander:



I can hear the thunder now South of us but after the deluge in early June it has been very hot, dry and dusty. We had about a quarter inch yesterday but little in the way of typical afternoon thunderstorms that we come to expect this time of year.

Peculiar season here too.
Both June and July ended up with average rainfall, which surprised me when I added them up.
I thought we were unusually dry, but some very heavy showers made up the totals for both months.
Definitely noticing a difference in rainfall patterns this year. No ,,rainy days,, at all, just afternoon showers and some overnight rains.

And the heat has been pretty impressive too, even at night.
Quoting 87. stormpetrol:



All in the distance, we are in the dry spot


I sometimes wonder if the azimuth angle of our radar isn't skewing the apparent proximity of a weather system. If you look at this image it is clear that the thunderstorm complex to our SE is closing in on us fairly quickly. Rain would seem to be imminent.

Quoting 88. stormpetrol:



So true, I can't remember when I felt it this hot!


Yeah, I keep reading about a cold/wet winter...but I have read that before.. any rain would be nice right now though.
Quoting 94. pottery:


Peculiar season here too.
Both June and July ended up with average rainfall, which surprised me when I added them up.
I thought we were unusually dry, but some very heavy showers made up the totals for both months.
Definitely noticing a difference in rainfall patterns this year. No ,,rainy days,, at all, just afternoon showers and some overnight rains.

And the heat has been pretty impressive too, even at night.
We had a string of nights when the temp never fell below 80 degrees...
Quoting 94. pottery:


Peculiar season here too.
Both June and July ended up with average rainfall, which surprised me when I added them up.
I thought we were unusually dry, but some very heavy showers made up the totals for both months.
Definitely noticing a difference in rainfall patterns this year. No ,,rainy days,, at all, just afternoon showers and some overnight rains.

And the heat has been pretty impressive too, even at night.


Another odd thing was that my mango tree only had a few buds that dried up early and then around April we had a torrential rain and the tree put out all new leaves AND a complete covering of buds. We got over 100 mangos from a tree about 12 feet tall and 15 feet wide well after the date when buds should have come out !.
Quoting 97. BahaHurican:

We had a string of nights when the temp never fell below 80 degrees...


my outside reading right now is 87.4.... it's hot...
BahaHurican & pottery there's been a lot of night heat going around:

Sunday night hottest in Israel's history: Nocturnal heat records were broken in many areas of the country (courtesy of ColoradoBob)

Quoting 55. wunderkidcayman:

Who gave you guys the idea that anything is Cayman bound


You did:)
8 Minutes ago.

Quoting 38. hurricanes2018:



???

If nothing else looks like the train is about to depart. We may not get a lot of storms but I think someone will get one major before the end of the season!!
Quoting 98. kmanislander:



Another odd thing was that my mango tree only had a few buds that dried up early and then around April we had a torrential rain and the tree put out all new leaves AND a complete covering of buds. We got over 100 mangos from a tree about 12 feet tall and 15 feet wide well after the date when buds should have come out !.
We got nothing for the same reason, in reverse; the whole tree came out, real early, then it didn't rain. By the time the rain started again, all the small fruit had fallen off. Meanwhile, the avocados are covered....
Quoting 104. BahaHurican:

We got nothing for the same reason, in reverse; the whole tree came out, real early, then it didn't rain. By the time the rain started again, all the small fruit had fallen off. Meanwhile, the avocados are covered....


Very odd all around :-)
Quoting 102. kmanislander:

8 Minutes ago.


Looks like you guys may get a soaking and a cool down ....
Quoting 97. BahaHurican:

We had a string of nights when the temp never fell below 80 degrees...
Us too. I don't like those nights at all....
I sleep under a ceiling fan that normally keeps the bed nice and cool, but there,s been several nights recently that wake me up at dread hours, too hot for comfort.
Quoting 103. gulfbreeze:


If nothing else looks like the train is about to depart. We may not get a lot of storms but I think someone will get one major before the end of the season!!
I just hope and pray it's not us ....
Quoting 95. kmanislander:



I sometimes wonder if the azimuth angle of our radar isn't skewing the apparent proximity of a weather system. If you look at this image it is clear that the thunderstorm complex to our SE is closing in on us fairly quickly. Rain would seem to be imminent.





probably accurate looking at this moving in fast about 22 miles out
Quoting 106. BahaHurican:

Looks like you guys may get a soaking and a cool down ....


Would be nice. I just compared the sat imagery to our radar and the radar loop is an hour behind. Go figure !.
Quoting 58. wunderkidcayman:

Anyway can't wait for winter season 15/16
It seems like it will be a cold and wet one for Cayman
What is that like 70?
Looks like the loop just updated but still behind the satellite. Rumbling growing outside.
Quoting 107. pottery:

Us too. I don't like those nights at all....
I sleep under a ceiling fan that normally keeps the bed nice and cool, but there,s been several nights recently that wake me up at dread hours, too hot for comfort.
I'm usually fine with a little 5000 BTU window unit. So far this summer I've had to run a fan about 70% of the evenings to get the bedroom to cool down enough to sleep. It's really freaky when it's still 82 degrees at 3 a.m. .... :o/

While it's usually hot in the summer, I don't remember these above 80 nights ... with the humidity it's oppressive. One can only pray there's no power outage.

I don't even want to think about a post-hurricane situation with temps like this ...
Quoting 99. saltydog1327:



my outside reading right now is 87.4.... it's hot...

That,s high !!
79f right now here, at 10:30
Mangoes doing great though, and the Caribbean cherry too. Late but plentiful. Plenty avocados, but breadfruit is scarce.
Good night all. Will catch up soon.
Quoting 114. pottery:


That,s high !!
79f right now here, at 10:30
Mangoes doing great though, and the Caribbean cherry too. Late but plentiful. Plenty avocados, but breadfruit is scarce.


where are you guys?
Quoting 100. BaltimoreBrian:

BahaHurican & pottery there's been a lot of night heat going around:

Sunday night hottest in Israel's history: Nocturnal heat records were broken in many areas of the country (courtesy of ColoradoBob)



Wow. Nasty stuff there.
Quoting 116. saltydog1327:



where are you guys?

Trinidad, 11n 61w.
Quoting 115. kmanislander:

Good night all. Will catch up soon.
Good to see you.
Have a Tranquil season !
Quoting 116. saltydog1327:



where are you guys?
Nassau, Bahamas
Everyday local met say high will be 90 and ends up 95. I think they just say that to make the tourist happy. Heat index has been 105 to 110 and higher for weeks and long range for next week looks like it might get HOT LOL!!!
Quoting 121. gulfbreeze:

Everyday local met say high will be 90 and ends up 95. I think they just say that to make the tourist happy. Heat index has been 105 to 110 and higher for weeks and long range for next week looks like it might get HOT LOL!!!
Yeah ... lol ... we never get a prediction over 90 or 91, even when the previous 7 days have all hit 93 or 94 ... maybe wishful thinking??? lol ...
Nice spin...

Quoting 114. pottery:


That,s high !!
79f right now here, at 10:30
Mangoes doing great though, and the Caribbean cherry too. Late but plentiful. Plenty avocados, but breadfruit is scarce.


79 degrees at 10:50PM EDT in SW Connecticut. We are in the one month of true tropical summer that we get with overnight lows above 70. Only about 10 weeks until the first average frost here.
Quoting 123. Kowaliga:

Nice spin...


It should be looking like something at this point, given Dmax ... could be our next big hope ... [g]
Quoting 125. BahaHurican:

It should be looking like something at this point, given Dmax ... could be our next big hope ... [g]


"96L-worthy" for sure!
My wife ask when will it cool down I said Oct. she was not amused!
Quoting 125. BahaHurican:

It should be looking like something at this point, given Dmax ... could be our next big hope ... [g]



Heading straight to us!

But will it survive...
Quoting 127. gulfbreeze:

My wife ask when will it cool down I said Oct. she was not amused!
u better be glad she didn't march u right out to purchase a full cooling system ... lol ...
2016 looking good by the way! Can't wait.
Quoting 128. CaribBoy:




Heading straight to us!

But will it survive...
Not sure there is much hope for this in 10 days ... OTOH, it will be mid-August at that point, so I guess I better not rule anything out ....
Quoting 79. stoormfury:

94L seems to be making a come back. At the moment it is in a low sheer environment,and will be so for awhile.it is beneath SST of 29-30 deg C and will be so for sometime, The only impediment so far is the dry air to the north of the system.



There is no 94L
135. SLU
Quoting 60. LemieT:



If that 2016 forecast verifies, we could be in for a ripping season. Might see a Tomas repeat or worse. I'd say either way there is hope for a lot more rain at least.


For the bare minimum we may see a wet, wet year.

radar accurate, satellite deceiving, storms are bypassing us no more lightning or thunder, hopefully rain in the morning hours , Goodnight all!
Quoting 135. SLU:



For the bare minimum we may see a wet, wet year.


A wet year would be welcome relief from the dryness we've seen the past 3 seasons.

As for the topic of night heat that is absolutely the worst. Right now our bedroom AC unit needs servicing so we are using just the standing fan. Feels like we're suffocating most nights with very little wind. My children are soaking the bed with perspiration at night and comfortable sleep is hard to come by.

Can't wait for a pattern change.
Quoting 136. stormpetrol:

radar accurate, satellite deceiving, storms are bypassing us no more lightning or thunder, hopefully rain in the morning hours , Goodnight all!

Go to sleep with a smile on your face, and maybe you'll have rain tomorrow.
It's been very dry here in SEFL as well last 2 months.
Be well my friend.
Quoting 79. stoormfury:

94L seems to be making a come back. At the moment it is in a low sheer environment,and will be so for awhile.it is beneath SST of 29-30 deg C and will be so for sometime, The only impediment so far is the dry air to the north of the system.


Yes so true

Quoting 82. kmanislander:



It aint all bad here as they say, provided you don't take yourself too seriously, and, most importantly, you don't get too worked up every time it looks like something may spin up.

Even with El Nino we will get a couple of interesting systems before all is said and done. The wave just exiting Africa may have some promise.




It hard to do this because I take meteorology seriously because unlike some people on here who take this as a hobby for me it's a job

I'm not getting worked up about every system here is the proof I stated that 95L will not be one to join the list of names and in terms of 95L you can call me downcaster and I will wear title of 95L downcaster proudly

I know Nino seasons can bring on some bad storms and we both been through caymans most powerful and that was an El Niño year

Quoting 84. stormpetrol:


wasn't for dry air ex94L might have a slight chance! Then again it seems to have a talent for survival!


Even with the dry air ex-94L has a chance this is one hell of a fighter

Quoting 89. kmanislander:



The building El Nino is the likely culprit behind pattern changes in the weather. Perhaps this "winter "we will see more cold fronts and lower temps in the NW Caribbean.


Well if it can get as cold or colder like we had early this year or back in 09/10 winter season and go into 40s/30s with overcast and rain I will be truly happy

Quoting 93. stormpetrol:


shear seems to be on the decrease for now


Yes it is

Quoting 101. Bucsboltsfan:



You did:)


No I DID NOT
I DID NOT MENTION CAYMAN AT ALL FOR ANYTHING RECENTLY

Quoting 106. BahaHurican:

Looks like you guys may get a soaking and a cool down ....


Mate we just had one hell of a pour down and lightning and thunder and some decent wind gust

Quoting 111. gulfbreeze:

What is that like 70?


Coldest we had was in the 40s/30s (30s unofficially)
Those are normally during the Southern cold snaps
On average 50s-65s
During spring it's more like in the 70s


Quoting 133. Tazmanian:




There is no 94L

Ex-94L yes it's still there despite NHC no longer keeps its designation


I think ex-94L will be given back it invest status

Quoting 134. CosmicEvents:

Rose Kennedy and 94L are still dead.


No 94L is certainly not dead it's just been declassified as an invest there is still physically a system there

Quoting 138. CosmicEvents:


Go to sleep with a smile on your face, and maybe you'll have rain tomorrow.
It's been very dry here in SEFL as well last 2 months.
Be well my friend.


It's pouring where I am in West Bay, Grand Cayman currently with lightning and thunder

Quoting 139. wunderkidcayman:



Yes so true



It hard to do this because I take meteorology seriously because unlike some people on here who take this as a hobby for me it's a job

I'm not getting worked up about every system here is the proof I stated that 95L will not be one to join the list of names and in terms of 95L you can call me downcaster and I will wear title of 95L downcaster proudly

I know Nino seasons can bring on some bad storms and we both been through caymans most powerful and that was an El Niño year



Even with the dry air ex-94L has a chance this is one hell of a fighter



Well if it can get as cold or colder like we had early this year or back in 09/10 winter season and go into 40s/30s with overcast and rain I will be truly happy



Yes it is



No I DID NOT
I DID NOT MENTION CAYMAN AT ALL FOR ANYTHING RECENTLY



Mate we just had one hell of a pour down and lightning and thunder and some decent wind gust



Coldest we had was in the 40s/30s (30s unofficially)
Those are normally during the Southern cold snaps
On average 50s-65s
During spring it's more like in the 70s



Ex-94L yes it's still there despite NHC no longer keeps its designation


I think ex-94L will be given back it invest status



No 94L is certainly not dead it's just been declassified as an invest there is still physically a system there


I'm not sure , I thought 94L remnants passed Barbados, already. But the system at 47W, `12N, does shows a well define swirl, with increasing convection and under pretty favorable environment, low shear, SST at 28-29C, except, as you say, for the dry air, north of the system...
143. SLU
Quoting 137. LemieT:



A wet year would be welcome relief from the dryness we've seen the past 3 seasons.

As for the topic of night heat that is absolutely the worst. Right now our bedroom AC unit needs servicing so we are using just the standing fan. Feels like we're suffocating most nights with very little wind. My children are soaking the bed with perspiration at night and comfortable sleep is hard to come by.

Can't wait for a pattern change.


Yes the low level wind flow died since early July and at nights it's real hot for true. Low winds might dominate the weather from Jan - May 2016 with the strong -NAO setting up to warm the Atlantic

Long time not posting. Tw Looking better at 0600.
Kinda hard to believe this was designated a Tropical Cyclone, especially by WPac standards.

146. vis0

image host

i'm so tired that my eyes are leaning against each other to stay up, zzzzzzzzzzzzz
Quoting 145. TimSoCal:

Kinda hard to believe this was designated a Tropical Cyclone, especially by WPac standards.




It's been there for a few days, so I assume it looked better a couple days ago.
Quoting 145. TimSoCal:

Kinda hard to believe this was designated a Tropical Cyclone, especially by WPac standards.




Doesn't look any more worthy of being named a tropical cyclone than the gulf low that is now off the east coast.
Quoting 32. txjac:



Love the "dark" humor on this blog ..I dont believe that I have ever seen a picture quite like this one where the "yard" comes our of the ground with the tree ...if they flop it back down will it reestablish and continue to grow?


With decent watering, it should do fine.

However, I think they didn't do enough pre-prep when planning their turf installation. A separation like that means the turf wasn't able to get its roots deeper. Lots of frequent shallow watering is my guess; if it was very recent you'd see the lines from when the rolls of turf were laid down.

(says the former certified Penn State/CCE Master Gardener.)
150. JRRP
Quoting 123. Kowaliga:

Nice spin...



is this circulation in the stratosphere ?
at least deserves the yellow color 10%
Hopping we get a blog mention eventually for the claims of Heat Indexes in the 160s in Iran.
Quoting 141. HuracanTaino:

I'm not sure , I thought 94L remnants passed Barbados, already. But the system at 47W, `12N, does shows a well define swirl, with increasing convection and under pretty favorable environment, low shear, SST at 28-29C, except, as you say, for the dry air, north of the system...


94L's remnants didn't get here. What you are seeing now is that. We had a stream of ITCZ moisture passing through on Monday.
TimSoCal:

Kinda hard to believe this was designated a Tropical Cyclone, especially by WPac standards.




it never got a "WARNING" from the JMA. it remains a 25 knot tropical depression though.


tropical cyclone formation alert for near Guam according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.
Good morning from Germany after a nice cooler night in its western parts. However, temps should soar again, and especially in (south-)eastern Europe the very unpleasant heatwave will continue or even strengthen as the map below with mean temps and the anomalies shows:



Next heatwave forecast for Austria
The Local, Published: 04 Aug 2015 12:35 GMT 02:00
It's time to plug those fans back in and get the swimwear out - this week will see the return of the hot summer weather, with temperatures of up to 38C forecast for Saturday....
The hot weather has led to concerns for drought-stricken fields and hills. Many in the agricultural sector are afraid there will be crop losses for corn, sugar beet, sunflowers and grapes after a lack of summer rain, which will affect local farmers. ...


Extreme heat forces German parliament to close iconic glass dome
Published: 12:05 AM, August 5, 2015
BERLIN - A heat wave gripping Germany forced officials to close the glass dome of Berlin's parliament building to visitors on Tuesday due to health concerns.

August heat bears down on Turkey with no sign of relief
DAILY SABAH, ISTANBUL, Published 15 hours ago
A heatwave hailing from North Africa is engulfing the entire country and is particularly impacting southern cities known for their warm climate in the summer.

Amid heat wave, 18-year-old IDF soldier dies of sun stroke in Jerusalem
By JPOST.COM STAFF, SHARON UDASIN 08/04/2015
IMS forecasts predict continued unseasonably warm conditions through until at least Saturday. The heat index will decrease slightly on Thursday but then become severe again in most regions on Friday and Saturday. Muggy conditions will prevail in the coastal areas on both Wednesday and Friday, the forecast added. ...

Iraqi frustration boils over as heatwave prompts protests
04/08 23:34 CET
Hundreds of Iraqis took the streets in the southeastern city of Amara on Tuesday to protest about the lack of power supply in the mid-summer heat. Temperatures of over 50 degrees Celsius over the past few days have exacerbated the regular power outages. The rally is the latest in a series of protests across the country in recent weeks, prompted by people's frustration with the quality of government services. ...

Japan heatwave kills 25
Posted by Online on Aug 5th, 2015
TOKYO (PNA/Sputnik) - Nearly 11,700 have been hospitalized and 25 died from heatstroke due to a major heat wave over the past week, officials reported yesterday. ...

Edit:
French Corn Fried by Heat Wave Signals Plunging European Harvest
by Rudy Ruitenberg, August 5, 2015 - 12:01 AM CEST
Corn in parts of France, Europe's biggest grower, is about half as tall as it should be and in the worst condition that Luc Esprit has seen since 2003.
"The corn is simply fried," said Esprit, the director general of Maiz'Europ', a Montardon-based trade organization. He spent the past three weeks surveying damage from drought and a record heat wave stunting crops across Europe. "It's not a desert, but the soils are cracked," he said. "There are major water shortages. Where there's non-irrigated corn, there are major pollination problems, with plants that have no ears."
After the biggest European corn harvest ever last year, production in 2015 is poised to plunge. Output in the 28 nations of the European Union will fall 19 percent to 62.8 million metric tons, based on the median of eight analyst and trader estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The drop will be the biggest in EU production data going back to 2001. ...
There's a solid chance of TC development near the CV islands by 8-10 days.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER N COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 11N TO
14N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST UNTIL 1800 UTC TODAY. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N30W TO 10N28W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 27W AND 33W.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE MOISTURE OVER THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH
AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N40W TO 10N40W...MOVING W AT AROUND 10
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SUBTLE 700
MB TROUGH BETWEEN 38W AND 42W. HIGH MOISTURE IS LOCATED S OF 13N
AND DRY AIR IS N OF 13N IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N58W TO 11N59W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB
TROUGHING BETWEEN 51W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXITING THE W CARIBBEAN AND MOVING ACROSS
ENTERING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N88W TO
09N88W...MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
INTERACTION OF THIS WAVE WITH AN UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 82W AND
89W.


watching!!
mdr=ex94=slow.mover
We just observed the 2nd highest MEI value ( 1.972) for June-July since 1950, only being eclipsed by the 1997-98 Super El Nino. The nearest 5 rankings all maintained "strong" status through the end of the year, and I don't see why this won't be the case this year, but again, I'm not sure if we'll reach the "Super" status of 1997-98 & 1982-83... The BEST Index & a few other SST datasets should update within the next few days.

The peak MEI amplitude for the current El Nino is already in the top 5 since 1950.

#1 1982-83 3.024 (Feb-Mar 1983)
#2 1997-98 3.005 (Aug-Sep 1997)
#3 1991-92 2.269 (Mar-Apr 1992)
#4 1987-88 2.140 (Apr-May 1987)
#5 2015-16 2.060 (May-Jun 2015)

India rail crash: Trains derail in Madhya Pradesh flash flood
BBC, 19 minutes ago
Two passenger trains in the Indian state of Madhya Pradesh have derailed minutes apart on a flooded bridge, killing at least 24 people, officials say. The trains were passing each other near the town of Harda when a flash flood triggered by heavy rain struck the bridge, reports said. The tracks collapsed and some of the carriages were submerged. ...

U.S. to send aid to flood-hit Myanmar - Kerry
Source: Reuters - Wed, 5 Aug 2015 08:10 GMT
YANGON/KUALA LUMPUR Aug 5 (Reuters) - The United States will announce an aid package for Myanmar to help the Southeast Asian country provide relief for the hundreds of thousands of people affected by floods, Secretary of State John Kerry said on Wednesday. ...
Quoting 164. hurricanes2018:



watching!!


Of all the images of waves just exiting Africa that I've seen on here over the years, that must be the most hurricane like. It looks like it's pumped up and ready to roll. Pity about the dry air in its path, though.
More details…
According to the CWB's records, the absolute maximum rainfall in Taiwan during Typhoon Morakot's invasion is in 24 hours:
1623.5 mm (2:00 p.m. August 8 to 1:59 p.m. TST August 9) at Alishan
1583.0 mm (11:00 a.m. August 8 to 10:59 a.m. TST August 9) at Shipanlong
1570.0 mm (12:00 a.m. August 8 to 11:59 a.m. TST August 9) at Fenqihu
1443.0 mm (12:00 a.m. August 8 to 11:59 a.m. TST August 9) at Nantianchi
1414.5 mm (11:00 p.m. August 7 to 10:59 p.m. TST August 8) at Weiliaoshan

The maximum rainfall in 48 hours in Taiwan during Typhoon Morakot's invasion is:
2361.0 mm (6:00 p.m. TST August 7 to 5:59 p.m TST August 9) at Alishan
2215.5 mm (9:00 a.m. TST August 7 to 8:59 a.m TST August 9) at Weiliaoshan

Other rainfall data in the world: www.geoclimat.org/2014/01/records-mondiaux-de-pre cipitations-par.html
Quoting 169. Geoclimat:

More details…
According to the CWB's records, the absolute maximum rainfall in Taiwan during Typhoon Morakot's invasion is in 24 hours:
1623.5 mm (2:00 p.m. August 8 to 1:59 p.m. TST August 9) at Alishan
1583.0 mm (11:00 a.m. August 8 to 10:59 a.m. TST August 9) at Shipanlong
1570.0 mm (12:00 a.m. August 8 to 11:59 a.m. TST August 9) at Fenqihu
1443.0 mm (12:00 a.m. August 8 to 11:59 a.m. TST August 9) at Nantianchi
1414.5 mm (11:00 p.m. August 7 to 10:59 p.m. TST August 8) at Weiliaoshan

The maximum rainfall in 48 hours in Taiwan during Typhoon Morakot's invasion is:
2361.0 mm (6:00 p.m. TST August 7 to 5:59 p.m TST August 9) at Alishan
2215.5 mm (9:00 a.m. TST August 7 to 8:59 a.m TST August 9) at Weiliaoshan

Other rainfall data in the world: www.geoclimat.org/2014/01/records-mondiaux-de-pre cipitations-par.html



Those numbers are mindblowing.
171. vis0
image host

The tiny magenta text in the lower left (beginning in frame 66(116 total) lasting ~6 frames) is when i thin ROtation occurred...TS?

BTW IMHOABMOR** this is the 3rd TS not called ...and 1 TD. (2 i have posted clips of on Dr. Masters blog)
so by "years end" we should have 2,098 TD, 127 TS, 8 Hurr.. 1/2 a MAJOR and a partridge in a pear tree.


**IMHO...Adulterated By My Own Rules
Sal means no cane
The sal has virtually reduced rain in the western Carib by about 50 percent this year
Quoting 164. hurricanes2018:



watching!!
173. MahFL
Quoting 168. yonzabam:



Of all the images of waves just exiting Africa that I've seen on here over the years, that must be the most hurricane like. It looks like it's pumped up and ready to roll. Pity about the dry air in its path, though.


It's pretty moist in the immediate area :

That being said that is the most impressive structure we have seen this year

Quoting 164. hurricanes2018:



watching!!
175. beell
Quoting 174. 19N81W:

That being said that is the most impressive structure we have seen this year




They always look good this time of year when a disturbance can take advantage of the low-level westerlies associated with the monsoon trough and the enhanced surface convergence that comes with it. Much better than surface confluence from your standard run-of-the-mill ITCZ.

Usually, this monsoonal influence does not extend that far into the Atlantic. Then it becomes a question as to whether a disturbance can leverage this "boost" into a self-sustaining entity after leaving the strongest portion of the monsoon behind.
good chance back in the 70s 95l would of been a designated td a few days ago.
if the system is functioning correctly you got to think the nw carib and south florida who are in drought conditions will experience a slow movin cyclone
Wave in central atlantic near 11N 47W no longer carries a low with it. ASCAT nd RapidScan shows that the system is open to the west.
Quoting 179. stoormfury:

Wave in central atlantic near 11N 47W no longer carries a low with it. ASCAT nd RapidScan shows that the system is open to the west.
Local Weather 8:27 AM EDT on August 05, 2015
Mostly Cloudy
East Haven, Connecticut
71 °F
Mostly Cloudy


t.storms drying up less rain WITH THIS LOW
It's possible this new Kelvin Wave could propel us to 1997 levels in a few months. Rapidly developing warm pool!



Quoting 166. Webberweather53:

We just observed the 2nd highest MEI value ( 1.972) for June-July since 1950, only being eclipsed by the 1997-98 Super El Nino. The nearest 5 rankings all maintained "strong" status through the end of the year, and I don't see why this won't be the case this year, but again, I'm not sure if we'll reach the "Super" status of 1997-98 & 1982-83... The BEST Index & a few other SST datasets should update within the next few days.

The peak MEI amplitude for the current El Nino is already in the top 5 since 1950.

#1 1982-83 3.024 (Feb-Mar 1983)
#2 1997-98 3.005 (Aug-Sep 1997)
#3 1991-92 2.269 (Mar-Apr 1992)
#4 1987-88 2.140 (Apr-May 1987)
#5 2015-16 2.060 (May-Jun 2015)




AEI index is rising to 4.01 sigma highest value since the model came out in 1948. Also rapid sub sea surface warming even more so than what we saw in July. Also 2C anomalies are now spreading throughout Nino 3.4 so our first 2C reading for Nino 3.4 maybe just a couple weeks away.



see what 50w does to the ex
This DW/KW in progess will push us past 1997 during the September/October timeframe as there was a big drop in the MEI values during that time. There are rapid rises in sub surface anomalies that are raising eyebrows with many mets and should raise some eyebrows on here.

Notice the drop during the September/October timeframe during 1997. We could intersect those 1997 readings come September to push 2015 in a league of its own.

187. JRRP

Notice the change in just 1 day. WOW!!!

August 4th


August 5th
Sorry but nothing is solid 8-10 days out.
Quoting 161. CybrTeddy:

There's a solid chance of TC development near the CV islands by 8-10 days.


There is a new satellite sending back photos of the Earth in many different forms, interesting photo of Africa.



Here's the link to the article:-

Link
Lots of rain forecast across FL/Cuba the next 2 weeks. If you get a chance to visit Cuba do so very cool place to visit. Everything is older including the cars as the cars they are driving like 57 Chevy's which I saw a lot of down there would be worth a lot of money here in the states! The taxi we drove in had 494,000 miles on it. Goes to show you they just don't make em like they used too.

192. JLPR2
Little x94l doesn't want to give up but it's so dry where it's heading that there is just no way it can make it, despite favorable shear and warm SSTs.

altogether now......."sigh".........

Quoting 192. JLPR2:

Little x94l doesn't want to give up but it's so dry where it's heading that there is just no way it can make it, despite favorable shear and warm SSTs.


to much dry air!! wow
195. JRRP


floater still up on this low!
Quoting 140. wunderkidcayman:



It's pouring where I am in West Bay, Grand Cayman currently with lightning and thunder


I wonder how the Stingrays react to thunder and lightening? Do people every find a few dead ones on shore after a lightning storm over the bay? Or maybe they get to deep water before the storm gets to them.. (we got to visit Stingray City about 12 years ago, what a weird, unnerving and beautiful experience!)
Abraham Levy ‏@hombredeltiempo Aug 3 Peru View translation
CPC/NOAA Ago 03 #ElNiño 1+2: +2.7ºC; Niño 3: +2.1ºC; Niño 3.4: +1.7ºC y Niño 4: +1.0ºC. Magnitud: Fuerte
Abraham Levy
‏@hombredeltiempo
Otra #OndaKelvin se evidencia en 165ºE 0ºN Prof: 100mts por estallido de vientos WWB
Good Morning. Irrespective of whether this wave will develop or not and sheer issues down the road due to El Nino, ironically, due to the rainfall so far in the African Sahel, we may actually have one of the healthiest looking African wave trains going into the peak this year than we have seen in the last two years. I would actually be worried if this was an enso-neutral or La Nina year; it remains to be seen if we can spin up a long-track Cape Verde hurricane this year but Mother Nature is going to try:

Quoting 186. StormTrackerScott:

This DW/KW in progess will push us past 1997 during the September/October timeframe as there was a big drop in the MEI values during that time. There are rapid rises in sub surface anomalies that are raising eyebrows with many mets and should raise some eyebrows on here.

Notice the drop during the September/October timeframe during 1997. We could intersect those 1997 readings come September to push 2015 in a league of its own.


Eric Blake said himself "97 in a league of its own now"
Quoting 201. Gearsts:

Eric Blake said himself "97 in a league of its own now"


It is right now but there is another DW/KW organizing and it is very possible we cross 1997 as it goes downward later this month. Also the AEI index is @ 4.01 sigma the highest since the model came out in 1948.

Infact whoever this guy is commenting is mentioning the samething as me. So I wasn't the only one to pick up on this. These anomalies are rapidly building sub surface and we are right now nearly neck and neck with 1997 with sub surface anomalies at this given date in August.

Kenny Strawn@strawn_04 2h2 hours ago
@EricBlake12 that drop in Sept/Oct 97 looks promising given pair of DWKW's currently in progress that could make 2015 exact opp of that


Kenny Strawn @strawn_04 2h2 hours ago
@EricBlake12 approximation of DWKW ETA's on that chart. Curves seem to intersect late 201508/early 201509 pic.twitter.com/wuZfh57IaU
Quoting 161. CybrTeddy:

There's a solid chance of TC development near the CV islands by 8-10 days.


Can't have a solid chance of anything when is 8 to 10 days out.
Ante la peor de las sequías:Link
Julio se convierte en el cuarto mes más seco de la historia:Link
Quoting 202. StormTrackerScott:



It is right now but there is another DW/KW organizing and it is very possible we cross 1997 as it goes downward later this month. Also the AEI index is @ 4.01 sigma the highest since the model came out in 1948.

Infact whoever this guy is commenting is mentioning the samething as me. So I wasn't the only one to pick up on this. These anomalies are rapidly building sub surface and we are right now nearly neck and neck with 1997 with sub surface anomalies at this given date in August.

Kenny Strawn@strawn_04 2h2 hours ago
@EricBlake12 that drop in Sept/Oct 97 looks promising given pair of DWKW's currently in progress that could make 2015 exact opp of that


Kenny Strawn @strawn_04 2h2 hours ago
@EricBlake12 approximation of DWKW ETA's on that chart. Curves seem to intersect late 201508/early 201509 pic.twitter.com/wuZfh57IaU

There is another kelvin wave#4 so is possible but i still think it would be really hard to reach 97 super level.
ISS will get a pass on the wave very soon
Quoting 205. Gearsts:

There is another kelvin wave#4 so is possible but i still think it would be really hard to reach 97 super level.


Our first 2C reading looks to be just around the corner based off the TAO charts. Maybe with in the next 2 to 3 weeks.


watching this low this morning lets see what happerni hope we get invest soon
Quoting 204. Gearsts:

Ante la peor de las sequías:Link
Julio se convierte en el cuarto mes más seco de la historia:Link

Thanks for the link.
I can read it OK but I cant seem to find out from it where in the world it relates too?
Sounds very bad.

Here is southern Spain the news just said that the region of Andalucía has had the hottest month of July on record with temps in some areas over 45/C.
Meanwhile we are going to get up to 41/C or more this week.
Will finally note as to the wave that these isolated ones in early-August, regardless of size or current presentation, are the proverbial sacrificial lambs that help to moisten up the ITCZ between Africa and Caribbean heading towards later in August. With all the dry air out ahead of it, and no supporting ITCZ along the way, it will be a tough go for this one. A best case scenario would actually be no development but arrival in the Caribbean as a wave to bring some rain to them:

Typhoon Soudelor approaches after 7 killed, 2 missing in floods in Philippines
AP, Updated 1 hr 59 mins ago
MANILA, Philippines -- Flash floods caused by heavy rain have killed at least seven people, including four children, in the southern Philippines, officials said Wednesday. Two others remain missing.
The regional Office of Civil Defense said the dead in southern Bukidnon province's Valencia City included a 6-month-old girl and three other children aged 6 to 9. They drowned Tuesday but their bodies were retrieved Wednesday.
Weather bureau official Esperanza Cayanan warned of possible landslides after two weeks of heavy rain in the central and southern regions.
She said starting Wednesday, the southwest monsoon will be enhanced by Typhoon Soudelor, triggering strong to moderate rains. Soudelor is approaching the Philippines but is not expected to make landfall. ...



Click to enlarge. Source (Himawari)
Quoting 212. barbamz:

Typhoon Soudelor approaches after 7 killed, 2 missing in floods in Philippines
AP, Updated 1 hr 59 mins ago
MANILA, Philippines -- Flash floods caused by heavy rain have killed at least seven people, including four children, in the southern Philippines, officials said Wednesday. Two others remain missing.
The regional Office of Civil Defense said the dead in southern Bukidnon province's Valencia City included a 6-month-old girl and three other children aged 6 to 9. They drowned Tuesday but their bodies were retrieved Wednesday.
Weather bureau official Esperanza Cayanan warned of possible landslides after two weeks of heavy rain in the central and southern regions.
She said starting Wednesday, the southwest monsoon will be enhanced by Typhoon Soudelor, triggering strong to moderate rains. Soudelor is approaching the Philippines but is not expected to make landfall. ...



Click to enlarge. Source (Himawari)


That thing is massive!
Quoting 210. PlazaRed:

Thanks for the link.
I can read it OK but I cant seem to find out from it where in the world it relates too?
Sounds very bad.



Puerto Rico
Awaiting Green Ball Atlantic....anytime.


Quoting 210. PlazaRed:


Thanks for the link.
I can read it OK but I cant seem to find out from it where in the world it relates too?
Sounds very bad.

Here is southern Spain the news just said that the region of Andalucía has had the hottest month of July on record with temps in some areas over 45/C.
Meanwhile we are going to get up to 41/C or more this week.
warm for sure
For our Nino-fans:



El Niño Conditions Are Growing Stronger
NASA Earth Observatory, August 5, 2015
Quoting 215. Patrap:

Awaiting Green Ball Atlantic....anytime.



Any thoughts on the nice swirl, some say ex 94L, at 12N 51 W, ??? It's been ignored? Why?
north Africa morroco
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092015
500 AM HST WED AUG 05 2015

...STRONG SHEAR EXACTING A TOLL ON GUILLERMO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 151.2W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

wind shear hitting this tropical storm hard!
Quoting 192. JLPR2:

Little x94l doesn't want to give up but it's so dry where it's heading that there is just no way it can make it, despite favorable shear and warm SSTs.




*sad violin music initiate*


tropical storm Guillermo got hit by the wind shear big time


right now to much dry air right now!! maybe next week we will haVE something to watch


pretty dry basin minus close to home not too promising for much
Quoting 127. gulfbreeze:

My wife ask when will it cool down I said Oct. she was not amused!


October 1984 in TLH had almost no cool down. A near record warm October with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s.. all month! November cooled to normal levels which hammered the truth home to me that I was in the SUBtropics (and upper subtropics BTW at that with many temperate tree species), not the tropics and the veggie garden I aggressively started Labor Day weekend, froze.

I get the complaint in winter, here in DC metro phrased as a question "When's it going to warm up". My stock answer is "spring" unless they also ask when the snow will melt.. then I say "June"
Quoting 198. JNFlori30A:





As a Mid Atlantic homeowner of a home only safe to Cat 2 (because of trees), with a family, I'm very happy to see
no TC development in the next five days or ever, in the Atlantic upstream of me.

Stunning GIF shows moon crossing Earth from new satellite 1 million miles away

“It is surprising how much brighter Earth is than the moon,” said Adam Szabo, DSCOVR project scientist at NASA. “Our planet is a truly brilliant object in dark space compared to the lunar surface.”

Even from such a distance, DSCOVR is seeing Earth’s weather patterns in incredible resolution. As the Earth rotates and the moon passes in front, you’ll see a very powerful hurricane off the west coast of Mexico. That’s Hurricane Dolores, which peaked as a category 4 with winds of 130 mph on July 13.

Must be an El Nino year. CMC shows quiet.
Quoting 219. HuracanTaino:

Any thoughts on the nice swirl, some say ex 94L, at 12N 51 W, ??? It's been ignored? Why?


Well it's more like 12N 49/50W and yes it's ex-94L
Ex-94L has everything going for it but the dry air
Low level circulation good
Upper shear good
SSTs good
Convection good but could be better
Dry air still a problem
Soudelor's eyewall replacement cycle yesterday did not go as smoothly as the first one. The process opened the core up to dry air, which continues to filter into the cyclone today. Its larger size may be contributing to dry air entrainment as well. No intensification is likely for at least the next 24 hours.

Quoting 232. wunderkidcayman:



Well it's more like 12N 49/50W and yes it's ex-94L
Ex-94L has everything going for it but the dry air
Low level circulation good
Upper shear good
SSTs good
Convection good but could be better
Dry air still a problem


And while currently in favorable 10-15 knot 850 mb LL easterlies, in a couple of days it will accelerate to over 30 knots, and that kind of acceleration is almost the definition of low level divergence, yeah, shear also becomes fatal, but 94L will disappear. Maybe it'll appear in 8 or 9 days as a yellow 'x' in the East Pac.
Soudelor looked really nice the other day


Massive development of the storms in the western Sahara. Maybe these will build the wave the "Euro" is developing ten days ahead (see post #161 from CybrTeddy).
BTW, side effect is probably bad flooding for the folks in the northern Sahel right now.
Today (Aug 5) is the halfway point of the First Official Day of Summer and the First Official Day of Fall.
Quoting 236. barbamz:


Massive development of the storms in the western Sahara. Maybe these will build the wave the "Euro" is developing ten days ahead (see post #161 from CybrTeddy).


Environment pretty hostile over the Atlantic right now, poor potential waves. But just 5 weeks away from the climatological peak so maybe these storms will help combat the sal


BOOO!!
240. JRRP
Quoting 239. hurricanes2018:



BOOO!!

boring!!!!!!! boring!!!!! boring!!!
As a follow-up to my last post, although Soudelor is much weaker than previous days, it has acquired one of the best upper-level outflow patterns I've ever seen in association with a tropical cyclone. Wow.

I was looking at this image and wondered what makes the clouds a different color? The clouds that are closer to the surface are more yellow while the ones higher up in the atmosphere are more blue? What is the difference? Thanks.

For the 2nd month in a row, the seasonally averaged (tri-monthly) Equatorial SOI is at record levels, even beating out the 1997-98 "Super" Nino. I inverted the subsequent time series to appear more consistent w/ other indices.

Quoting 242. miguel617:

I was looking at this image and wondered what makes the clouds a different color? The clouds that are closer to the surface are more yellow while the ones higher up in the atmosphere are more blue?

Exactly.
Scroll down to visible/infrared.
Quoting 241. TropicalAnalystwx13:

As a follow-up to my last post, although Soudelor is much weaker than previous days, it has acquired one of the best upper-level outflow patterns I've ever seen in association with a tropical cyclone. Wow.




Perfect set up for it to strengthen significantly once it moves over the warmer waters (30-32C) just east of Taiwan. Will be interesting to see how much it will strengthen. Could potentially undergo another round of RI.


big cool down in the northeast this weekend
Quoting 244. barbamz:


Exactly.


Well, what exactly is the difference, reflects more sunlight? why yellow and blue tones?


Edit: sorry barbamz. I missed your link. Thanks for this wonderful info.
Quoting 247. miguel617:



Well, what exactly is the difference, reflects more sunlight? why yellow and blue tones?

From here: RGB products explained.

Description: This GOES product helps to distinguish between low and high clouds and can help reveal wind shear. It is very simple and easy to understand. Note that the spectral channels and color scheme are the same as those used for the nighttime visible RGB.

Coverage: Daytime only, although some loops intersperse a shortwave/longwave infrared RGB at night for continuity.

Channels:

GOES 0.6-nm VIS (red and green)
GOES 10.8-nm IR (blue)
GOES 3.9-nm IR (red and green at night)

Color scheme:

White indicates thick, cold ice clouds
Light blue indicates cold terrain or cold, thin ice clouds (cirrus)
Subdued yellow or green often indicates land
Dark blue shows water
Yellow shows low clouds or fog

Advantages:

Uses the traditional visible and infrared channels that forecasters are familiar with, combining them in an optimal way
Is standard on many NESDIS web pages, making it a useful standard for comparison

Limitations:

Since it only uses two channels, it cannot distinguish between some features of interest, such as snow cover and cloud
Does not show water vapor plumes


249. txjac
Looking for some where to stay this weekend ...Houston Chronicle says that Sat will be 101F and Sunday 103F Wonder what the "real" feel is going to be like.
Hopefully no rolling brownouts
Quoting 232. wunderkidcayman:



Well it's more like 12N 49/50W and yes it's ex-94L
Ex-94L has everything going for it but the dry air
Low level circulation good
Upper shear good
SSTs good
Convection good but could be better
Dry air still a problem


I respectfully disagree about your analysis that it has "everything going for it but the dry air." The dry/stable air is everything and thats why it had no chance to develop when everyone talked about it days ago. There's hardly any clouds left and my understanding is that a tropical entity that has everything going for it should have a concentrated area of thunderstorms.

Why weren't you hyping up 95L? It dumped record rains in Florida, had a well defined llc, the NHC sent a plane to investigate.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TYPHOON HANNA
11:00 PM PhST August 6 2015
======================
Typhoon "HANNA" has weakened while continuously moving in west northwest direction

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Hanna [SOUDELOR] (948 hPa) located at 20.1N 132.1E or 1,060 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warnings #1
Very light or no damage to high risk structures.
Light damage to medium to low risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters


Luzon Region
========
1. Batanes Group of Islands

Additional Information
===============
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 650 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fisher folk are advised not to venture out over the Northern and Eastern seaboards of Luzon, the seaboards of Palawan, of Visayas and of Mindanao.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
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