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Tropical Storm Washi kills 632 in the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:47 PM GMT on December 19, 2011

The death toll on the Philippine island of Mindanao is at least 632, with hundreds still missing, in the wake of extreme flash flooding from Friday's passage of Tropical Storm Washi. (December 29 update: the death toll has risen to 1249, with 79 still missing.) Washi hit Mindanao as a tropical storm with 45 - 55 mph winds, crossing the island in about eighteen hours. Washi was unusually wet, as the storm was able to tap a large stream of tropical moisture extending far to the east (see the University of Wisconsin CIMSS satellite blog for imagery.) Aiding the heavy rains were sea surface temperatures that were nearly 1°C above average off the east coast of Mindanao, one of the top five warmest values on record. The exceptionally warm waters added about 7% more moisture than is usual for this time of year to the atmosphere. Washi hit a portion of the Philippines that does not see tropical storms and typhoons very often. Mindanao lies between 6°N and 9°N latitude, which is too close to the Equator for the Earth's spin to provide much help for a tropical storm trying to get spinning. Mindanao is thus hit only about once every twelve years by a significant tropical storm or typhoon. Washi's rains were not all that unusual for a Philippine tropical storm, with a peak rainfall amount of 7.44" (189 mm) observed in the city of Hinatuan. However, since the rains fell on regions where the natural forest had been illegally logged or converted to pineapple plantations, the heavy rains were able to run off quickly on the relatively barren soils and create devastating flash floods. Since the storm hit in the middle of the night, and affected an unprepared population that had no flood warning system in place, the death toll was tragically high. Washi is currently a tropical depression near the southern coast of Vietnam, and is dissipating.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color satellite image of Tropical Storm Washi at 01:45 UTC December 16, 2011, as it bore down on the Philippines. At the time, Washi had top sustatined winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Washi. The storm crossed the Philippines unusually far to the south, near 8°N latitude.

Washi the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2011
The death toll from Washi is by far the highest for any tropical cyclone in 2011, surpassing the 215 people that died in Myanmar from Tropical Storm 02B in October. The deadliest storm in the world so far in 2011 occurred on January 11, when torrential rains of approximately 300 mm (12 inches) inundated a heavily populated, steep-sloped area about 40 miles north of Rio de Janeiro. Flash floods and mudslides from the heavy rains claimed 902 lives and caused $1.2 billion in damage. It was Brazil's deadliest storm in history. If we add Washi's toll to a list of deadliest storms of 2011 compiled by insurance broker AON Benfield, the Philippine disaster currently ranks as the third deadliest storm of 2011:



Deadliest natural disaster of 2011: the East Africa drought
While Tropical Storm Washi and the January 11 flash floods in Brazil are the deadliest storms of 2011, there is one weather-related disaster in 2011 that far surpasses these floods for number of people killed: the devastating East Africa drought in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya. On July 20, the United Nations officially declared famine in two regions of southern Somalia--the first time a famine has been declared by the UN in nearly thirty years. Almost 30,000 children under the age of five were believed to have died of malnutrition in Somalia this summer, and the total death toll of this great drought is doubtless much higher. At least thirteen million people in East Africa are in need of food aid. Weather Underground has partnered with the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to help the Horn of Africa region during the ongoing famine. With the help of the Weather Underground community, we hope to raise $10,000 that will go toward helping the refugees survive the crisis. Weather Underground will match the community's donation dollar-for-dollar up to $10,000 for a total donation of $20,000. Please visit the International Rescue Committee donation page to help out. Ninety cents of every dollar donated goes directly to the people in need.

Winter storm Joachim batters Europe
One of the most intense storms in recent years carved a path across Western Europe December 15 - 17th. Named winter-storm ‘Joachim’, the center of the storm passed between France and the United Kingdom, then across the Low Countries and into Northwestern Germany and on to Poland. A peak wind gust of 211 kph (131 mph) was measured at Puy de Dome in Auvergne, France. In Germany, sustained winds of 87 mph were measured at Wendelstein at 8 pm local time on December 16th. The central pressure of Joachim fell as low as 963.8 mb (28.46”) in Braunschweig in western Germany, which may be the lowest pressure ever recorded in Germany. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has the details in his latest post.

Wunderground releases its free iPhone app
We are proud to announce that our free Weather Underground iPhone app is now live in the iTunes store. Don't worry Android users, we anticipate that the Android version will be live later today.

I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters
Road blocked 2 washi 2011
Road blocked 2 washi 2011
Road broke down by washi on December 20th, 2011.

Extreme Weather Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Onward to 2012.
As bad as Washi was to the Philippines--and there's no mistaking it was a horrific storm--the mist heart-wrenching to me is the news out of Africa: "On July 20, the United Nations officially declared famine in two regions of southern Somalia--the first time a famine has been declared by the UN in nearly thirty years. Almost 30,000 children under the age of five were believed to have died of malnutrition in Somalia this summer, and the total death toll of this great drought is doubtless much higher. At least thirteen million people in East Africa are in need of food aid."

In my book, it really doesn't get much sadder than that.

Thank you, Dr. Masters.
Thank you Doc. The signs are becoming becoming more obvious and they are hard to ignore.....
Thanks Doc. Not looking like a white Christmas in eastern NC this year:( There's always January though.

Pat, your Saints looked pretty good yesterday!
Quoting Neapolitan:
As bad as Washi was to the Philippines--and there's no mistaking it was a horrific storm--the mist heart-wrenching to me is the news out of Africa: "On July 20, the United Nations officially declared famine in two regions of southern Somalia--the first time a famine has been declared by the UN in nearly thirty years. Almost 30,000 children under the age of five were believed to have died of malnutrition in Somalia this summer, and the total death toll of this great drought is doubtless much higher. At least thirteen million people in East Africa are in need of food aid."

In my book, it really doesn't get much sadder than that.

Thank you, Dr. Masters.


Even Mother Nature believes in population control.
Quoting SharpObjects:


Even Mother Nature believes in population control.


Exactly what is happening.
Be glad to start using the app on the Droid, replace that TWC app.
Where man reproduces unnessary in times where man can barely take care of himself, nature will take care of the rest
Quoting RitaEvac:
Where man reproduces unnessary in times where man can barely take care of himself, nature will take care of the rest


Most of what we do that's unnecessary, Mother Nature will take care of. She didn't much like the nukes in Japan, did she.
Quoting SharpObjects:


Most of what we do that's unnecessary, Mother Nature will take care of. She didn't much like the nukes in Japan, did she.


When we go off the grid, even if it's a few months, there will be mass casulaties by nature herself. Think of the people already sick and in hospitals, the very young, the old...
Thanks Jeff...
Good evening everyone.


Goes to show tropical storms can be just as deadly as hurricanes. Gordon in 1994 and Stan in 2005 are other examples closer to home.
I see Kim Jong Il is dead. Slippery as an eel he was.

Kim Jong Un now.

But un-what?

Kim Jong the undead?

The commie zombie?
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE 03-20112012
16:00 PM RET December 19 2011
====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Subtropical Depression 3 (1000 hPa) located at 25.8S 48.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: Nil

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 26.2S 46.2E - 30 knots (Depression subtropicale)
24 HRS: 25.4S 44.1E - 30 knots (Depression subtropicale)
48 HRS: 24.2S 42.9E - 20 knots (Low Pressure Area)

Additional Information
=======================

This low shows an hybrid pattern, asymmetric without low level fronts and with a convective activity mainly sustained by a mid-level cold air (TPW below 18C from 800 HPA to 400 HPA down to 15C) and sustained also by warm and humid low level air (TPW at about 20-22C at 925 hPa). In front of an upper level trough (well defined on water vapor satellite imagery), system undergoes a strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. This area is undergoing a strong dynamical forcing in relationship with the upper level trough (stratospheric air penetrates deeply in the tropospheric cyclonic circulation - 2PVU down to 700 HPA). This stratospheric air with strong potential vortex is expected to keep on being advent towards the tropospheric mid level within the next 24 hours. Low level circulation center is expected to track globally westward and should be in phase with the upper level trough within next night. Wind shear is consequently expected to weaken. This convergence of favorable for subtropical cyclongenesis elements (sea surface temperature at 25-26C, low level warm air, mid level cold air, weak vertical wind shear. and potential vortex) should allow the system to deepen temporarily within next night before undergoing a new southerly vertical wind shear constraint tomorrow on the back of the upper level trough. Over this forecast westward track, the low cross away the southern Malagasy coastline which are expected to stay away of the strongest winds.

CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.
Anyone have a guess as far as Atlanta, GA temp/precip forecast for New years? I know it's pretty far out but just hoping maybe some models go out that far. Just need a vague idea. Thanks.
I predict New Years Day in Atlanta will be sunny and cool. 32/49.
Who is responsible for the illegal logging of the forests on Mindanao? Who benefited from it? These people should be held accountable. Greed and stupidity always result in unnecessary suffering and this time death. We can not take for granted the integrity of our dams and bridges etc.. even our emergency broadcast system... Our government has created a culture of reliance on them.. only they know the answers and only they can provide for our needs.. We have to take responsibility for ourselves (I know I'm preaching to the choir here) and encourage those we care about to do the same... -I now relinquish the soap box.. thank you all for your time and Merry Christmas!
The earth continues to have "birth" contractions that are becoming closer and closer together. They will continue to grow closer in 2012, and I expect we will see MORE of the same deadly weather events. On a lighter note......Merry Christmas and Happy New year to everyone!
Thanks Dr. Masters!

Question for smart people looking up.
Does anyone know if you should look for Comet Lovejoy before sunrise, or after Sunset?
Given the over all tone of the blog so far to day..............

I know very little about this sight, it showed up from a Google on 2012 doom....

VISION: To help people realize and understand the global geological and social economic challenges that are about to impact our lives. To provide tangible scientific and historic evidence that supports possible and probably conclusions and provides a foundation for making better decisions on how to prepare.

MISSION: To present truthful and scientific information to support conclusions regarding the coming global and cosmic changes, as well as solutions on how to thrive through these challenging times and coming events. Click here to read the Timeline 2012 Overview.


Link
Thanks Jeff, finally a weather post not some blah blah blah about GW lol
Quoting floodzonenc:
Thanks Doc. Not looking like a white Christmas in eastern NC this year:( There's always January though.

Pat, your Saints looked pretty good yesterday!


they played minnesota, won 41 to 20 i think...not that big of a deal cuz minnesota is like 2-12 LOL!
Washi's rainfall came in about a 12 hour window. Another ingredient in the witch's brew.
Well worth repeating!
At least thirteen million people in East Africa are in need of food aid. Weather Underground has partnered with the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to help the Horn of Africa region during the ongoing famine. With the help of the Weather Underground community, we hope to raise $10,000 that will go toward helping the refugees survive the crisis. Weather Underground will match the community's donation dollar-for-dollar up to $10,000 for a total donation of $20,000. Please visit the International Rescue Committee donation page to help out. Ninety cents of every dollar donated goes directly to the people in need.
Link

Aid agencies in the
Philippines are trying to reach more than 120,000 people affected by
flash flooding on the island of Mindanao.

Coastal communities were devastated early on Saturday in flash floods triggered by a tropical storm.

Officials in two cities said mass burials were being organised as bodies were rapidly decomposing in the heat.

At least 972 people died in the disaster, according to goverment sources.

"We lost count for those still missing," disaster managment chief Benito Ramos said in a short statement.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16249763


I've always thought that that is why humans involve themselves in ridiculous, unnecessary wars....

Quoting RitaEvac:


Exactly what is happening.
Quoting Neapolitan:
As bad as Washi was to the Philippines--and there's no mistaking it was a horrific storm--the mist heart-wrenching to me is the news out of Africa: "On July 20, the United Nations officially declared famine in two regions of southern Somalia--the first time a famine has been declared by the UN in nearly thirty years. Almost 30,000 children under the age of five were believed to have died of malnutrition in Somalia this summer, and the total death toll of this great drought is doubtless much higher. At least thirteen million people in East Africa are in need of food aid."

In my book, it really doesn't get much sadder than that.

Thank you, Dr. Masters.


That is sad for so many children killed.
Get to the real problem, Muslim extremist terrorist are the real villian's here call a spade a spade!
The TRMM page :

Rainfall estimates from the TRMM-based, near-real time Multi-satellite
Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center are shown
here for the period 13 to 20 December 2011 for the southern Philippines. Storm
symbols mark Washi's track. Rainfall totals are on the order of 200
to over 250
mm (~8 to 10 inches, shown in green and yellow) along Mindanao's east
coast where
Washi made landfall, but the highest amounts are along the northwest
coast, where
totals are on the order of 300 to over 400 mm (~12 to over 16 inches, shown in
orange and red). It was here in places like Cagayan de Oro City and
Iligan City
that the most devastating mudslides occurred. In addition to deforestation and
weak construction, poor warnings are being blamed for the deadliest cyclone
disaster to hit the Philippines in three years. The southern
Philippines see far
fewer cyclones per year than in the north, and most of the heavy rain
was reported
to have fallen over the mountains before flowing down in raging rivers.





http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/
Quoting JNCali:
Who is responsible for the illegal logging of the forests on Mindanao? Who benefited from it? These people should be held accountable. Greed and stupidity always result in unnecessary suffering and this time death. We can not take for granted the integrity of our dams and bridges etc.. even our emergency broadcast system... Our government has created a culture of reliance on them.. only they know the answers and only they can provide for our needs.. We have to take responsibility for ourselves (I know I'm preaching to the choir here) and encourage those we care about to do the same... -I now relinquish the soap box.. thank you all for your time and Merry Christmas!

The short-sighted and/or greedy and/or ignorant people who have illegally clear-cut thousands of hectares of Mindanao forest for quick cash are, except for obvious differences in geography, absolutely no different from those pillaging the environment here in North America (and elsewhere) in other ways for that same money. Fracking, mountaintop removal mining, tar sands extraction; on and on and on, those who put profit ahead of people, and greed ahead of common sense, are the same wherever one goes.
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Get to the real problem, Muslim extremist terrorist are the real villian's here call a spade a spade!
The worst drought in at least 60 years--likely exacerbated, if not caused by, climate change--is the primary culprit. HSM is only making things worse; without the group, the drought would be just as severe, water just as scarce, crops just as haggard, livestock just as dead.
Quoting Neapolitan:

The short-sighted and/or greedy and/or ignorant people who have illegally clear-cut thousands of hectares of Mindanao forest for quick cash are, except for obvious differences in geography, absolutely no different from those pillaging the environment here in North America (and elsewhere) in other ways for that same money. Fracking, mountaintop removal mining, tar sands extraction; on and on and on, those who put profit ahead of people, and greed ahead of common sense, are the same wherever one goes.The worst drought in at least 60 years--likely exacerbated, if not caused by, climate change--is the primary culprit. HSM is only making things worse; without the group, the drought would be just as severe, water just as scarce, crops just as haggard, livestock just as dead.


Already happening here at home, in the state of TX, donate your dollars for your own people if you want America to survive, if not then you wont have your own food supply
Afternoon, everybody... another great day weatherwise here in Nassau, Bahamas. This looks like an excellent year-end vacation spot here if u are coming from less sunny climes.

I, of course, am used to all this splendour, so will prolly take a couple nights off to ring in the new year in S FL.... lol where it hopefully won't get much below 50 degrees...

Quoting 1911maker:
Given the over all tone of the blog so far to day..............

I know very little about this sight, it showed up from a Google on 2012 doom....

VISION: To help people realize and understand the global geological and social economic challenges that are about to impact our lives. To provide tangible scientific and historic evidence that supports possible and probably conclusions and provides a foundation for making better decisions on how to prepare.

MISSION: To present truthful and scientific information to support conclusions regarding the coming global and cosmic changes, as well as solutions on how to thrive through these challenging times and coming events. Click here to read the Timeline 2012 Overview.


Link


It might be a good idea to do a little more searching on Google before posting a link to yet another "We're all going to die" 2012 hoax site. There's some pretty good information about Stein's bizzare beliefs at http://www.2012hoax.org/ivan-stein.
...deforested areas of Mindanao...

...deforested areas of Haiti...

I'm beginning to see a trend, here. Who knew that the buildup of GHG's and the effects of CAGW would cause such widespread deforestation.

And it's gonna get worse - much worse...
Quoting sar2401:


It might be a good idea to do a little more searching on Google before posting a link to yet another "We're all going to die" 2012 hoax site. There's some pretty good information about Stein's bizzare beliefs at http://www.2012hoax.org/ivan-stein.


George Noory has all the answers I need
Quoting Neapolitan:
As bad as Washi was to the Philippines--and there's no mistaking it was a horrific storm--the mist heart-wrenching to me is the news out of Africa: "On July 20, the United Nations officially declared famine in two regions of southern Somalia--the first time a famine has been declared by the UN in nearly thirty years. Almost 30,000 children under the age of five were believed to have died of malnutrition in Somalia this summer, and the total death toll of this great drought is doubtless much higher. At least thirteen million people in East Africa are in need of food aid."

In my book, it really doesn't get much sadder than that.

Thank you, Dr. Masters.

Things like that makes me really upset. Children shouldn't have to starve to death in the 2000s. It is heartbreaking.
Quoting Xandra:

Things like that makes me really upset. Children shouldn't have to starve to death in the 2000s. It is heartbreaking.


Thing is, they aren't in the 2000s, those countries are still over 100 years behind if not more. All comes down to their dysfunctional government or lack there of. And America is right behind them, as dysfunctional as ours is getting...

The U.S. Census Bureau%u2019s annual poverty report, released this morning, found that 46.2 million Americans, or one in seven of us, were poor in 2010. The prolonged recession, with its high levels of unemployment, clearly has swollen the ranks of the poor.

But high numbers for poverty as defined by the Census Bureau predates the current recession. In most years for the past two decades, in fact, the Census Bureau declared that more than 35 million Americans were %u201Cliving in poverty.%u201D Last year%u2019s number was 43.5 million.

These figures sound ominous. But do we really understand poverty in the United States? What does it mean to be poor?


Stack up on your food supply, were right in line with the rest of the world
Quoting RitaEvac:


Thing is, they aren't in the 2000s, those countries are still over 100 years behind if not more


So this somehow makes it better? It's OK for humans in Somalia to suffer, but not those in more advanced nations? Every human life on earth is priceless, no matter what the GNP or military might or major religion or whatever issue-of-the-day you want to speak of. Ask the mothers of those dead children.

America is getting poorer. The U.S. government has just released a bunch of new statistics about poverty in America, and once again this year the news is not good. According to a special report from the U.S. Census Bureau, 46.2 million Americans are now living in poverty. The number of those living in poverty in America has grown by 2.6 million in just the last 12 months, and that is the largest increase that we have ever seen since the U.S. government began calculating poverty figures back in 1959. Not only that, median household income has also fallen once again. In case you are keeping track, that makes three years in a row. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, median household income in the United States dropped 2.3% in 2010 after accounting for inflation. Overall, median household income in the United States has declined by a total of 6.8% once you account for inflation since December 2007. So should we be excited that our incomes are going down and that a record number of Americans slipped into poverty last year? Should we be thrilled that the economic pie is shrinking and that our debt levels are exploding? All of those that claimed that the U.S. economy was recovering and that everything was going to be just fine have some explaining to do.
The United States has a child poverty rate that is more than twice as high as many European nations. We like to think that we have "the greatest economy on earth", but the reality is that we have one of the highest child poverty rates and it increased once again last year.

*The poverty rate for children living in the United States increased to 22% in 2010. That means that tonight more than one out of every five U.S. children is living in poverty.
The elderly are also falling into poverty in staggering numbers. They may not be out protesting in the streets, but that does not mean that they are not deeply, deeply suffering.

*One out of every six elderly Americans now lives below the federal poverty line.

*Between 1991 and 2007 the number of Americans between the ages of 65 and 74 that filed for bankruptcy rose by a staggering 178 percent.

*The Baby Boomers have only just begun to retire, and already our social programs for seniors are starting to fall apart. In 1950, each retiree's Social Security benefit was paid for by 16 U.S. workers. According to new data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are now only 1.75 full-time private sector workers for each person that is receiving Social Security benefits in the United States
Philippines reels from typhoon%u2019s destruction and a death toll of 927 (Photos)

Philippines storm death toll tops 900
No answer on Lovejoy.

Correction, #33 (if it was a joke, please skip this)
Deforestation in Haiti is due to Climate Chain Saws not GHGs. It was a Political climate change, in exchange for independence. The French forced them to sell their trees, if I read my history correctly, and without the trees to hold the soil...nothing grew back. Look at their land border on Google Earth to see my point. It is a political line, not a climate change.
What is needed in Haiti's case is soil conservation, and help with reforestation.

It is also an island so helping to stop sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the ocean is probably also appreciated.
Quoting HurrikanEB:
Philippines reels from typhoon%u2019s destruction and a death toll of 927 (Photos)


Washi is now a record storm. Amazing and horrible at the same time.
America is fundamentally changing. We were a nation that had the largest middle class in the history of the globe, but now we are becoming a nation that is deeply divided between the haves and the have nots.

Perhaps you are still doing fine. But don't think that economic disaster cannot strike you. Every single day, thousands more Americans will lose their jobs or will discover a major health problem. Every single day, thousands more Americans will lose their homes or will be forced to take a pay cut.

If you still have a warm, comfortable home to sleep in, you should be thankful. Poverty is a very sneaky enemy and it can strike at any time. If you are not careful, you might be the next American to end up sleeping in your car or living in a tent city.

It is easy to disregard a couple of statistics, but can you really ignore the vast amount of evidence presented above?

It is undeniable that America is getting poorer. Poverty is spreading and hopelessness and despair are rising. There is a reason why the economy is the number one political issue right now. Millions upon millions of Americans are in deep pain and they want some solutions.

Unfortunately, it appears quite unlikely that either major political party is going to offer any real solutions any time soon. So things are going to keep getting worse and worse and worse.

Should we just keep doing the same things that we have been doing over and over and over and yet keep expecting different results?

What we are doing right now is not working. We are in the midst of a long-term economic decline. Both major political parties have been fundamentally wrong about the economy. It is time to admit that.

If we continue on this path, poverty in America is going to continue to get a lot worse. Millions of families will be torn apart and millions of lives will be destroyed.

America please wake up.

Time is running out.
Somalia has much worse problems than drought. There are large numbers of public and private aid agencies that have been working in Somalia for almost 50 years. Sometimes the cause of the suffering is drought but the main problem still consist of a "county" which is not a county, but a collection of warring tribal warlords. People are starving not because there's not enough resources to help them, they are starving because the putative government and roving bands of thugs steal everything that's sent in and almost no aid gets to the people. Almost all the people who are starving are in areas controlled by al Shabab rebels, who have refused to allow foreign aid groups into their territory since 2009, on the grounds they are "Western spies". The African peacekeeping troops that are supposed to be enforcing and guarding routes for food deliveries have been involved in stealing the very trucks they were supposed to be guarding.

Most major powers have done almost everything they can to help, outside of outright invasion. Even when a fairly large force of UN troops were sent in 1993, they were eventually defeated by the rebels and warlords. This military action resulted in the now famous "Blackhawk Down" incident. At this point, no nation has the stomach to send in large military forces, which is what's needed to secure the areas when so many are starving. Climate change may be leading to a worse drought, but the people's misery is greatly compounded by politics, corruption, and fighting between the various factions in Somalia. I don't know what the answer is, but we've been sending billions in food and other aid for over 30 years, and yet the people continue to starve. Sending more aid now will be simply compounding the same old solutions that haven't worked yet. Doing something over and over with the same results, and then doing it again, expecting different results, is the definition of insanity.
Quoting sar2401:


It might be a good idea to do a little more searching on Google before posting a link to yet another "We're all going to die" 2012 hoax site. There's some pretty good information about Stein's bizzare beliefs at http://www.2012hoax.org/ivan-stein.


It was meant to be "tongue in cheek" given the doom and gloom the blog was expressing. It was the first thing that popped up that looked appropriately nutter based.
Somebody on here tell me, just what is good going to come to us in 2012? start naming things

Economy going to be just fine? no weather disasters? food for Africa? come on now be positive
Quoting RitaEvac:
America is getting poorer. The U.S. government has just released a bunch of new statistics about poverty in America, and once again this year the news is not good. According to a special report from the U.S. Census Bureau, 46.2 million Americans are now living in poverty. The number of those living in poverty in America has grown by 2.6 million in just the last 12 months, and that is the largest increase that we have ever seen since the U.S. government began calculating poverty figures back in 1959. Not only that, median household income has also fallen once again. In case you are keeping track, that makes three years in a row. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, median household income in the United States dropped 2.3% in 2010 after accounting for inflation. Overall, median household income in the United States has declined by a total of 6.8% once you account for inflation since December 2007. So should we be excited that our incomes are going down and that a record number of Americans slipped into poverty last year? Should we be thrilled that the economic pie is shrinking and that our debt levels are exploding? All of those that claimed that the U.S. economy was recovering and that everything was going to be just fine have some explaining to do.


This is what happens when you export your manufacturing jobs to other countries that do not protect their workers, the environment or any other semblance of human rights or ethics. NOW you want to complain because it is hitting us where it was always intended to hit us? Outsourcing our jobs overseas was NEVER intended to raise the living standards of the people of these other nations. The intent always was to lower our standards to that of the other nations. This is your redistribution of wealth. We are nearly there now.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


This is what happens when you export your manufacturing jobs to other countries that do not protect their workers, the environment or any other semblance of human rights or ethics. NOW you want to complain because it is hitting us where it was always intended to hit us? Outsourcing our jobs overseas was NEVER intended to raise the living standards of the people of these other nations. The intent always was to lower our standards to that of the other nations. This is your redistribution of wealth. We are nearly there now.


Yea, and it's been going on before Obama was in office. And when some more of us lose our standard of living, get ready for the final dance in the streets, when all hell and pandamoniom hits
Quoting RitaEvac:
Somebody on here tell me, just what is good going to come to us in 2012? start naming things

Economy going to be just fine? no weather disasters? food for Africa? come on now be positive


i wont say what will happen in 2012, but i will say what wont happen. December 21st, 2012, i will probably be doing wwhat i am now. December 22nd, i will be doing what i am now. that or outside. World wont end that day, i can put my life on that

and i say this as nicely a possible, will you please please please avoid talking about non-weather related news on here? please?
Quoting RitaEvac:
Somebody on here tell me, just what is good going to come to us in 2012? start naming things

Economy going to be just fine? no weather disasters? food for Africa? come on now be positive

I don't think "positive" is a good choice of words...Maybe "realistic" because nothing "positive" comes out of all that.
Quoting SPLbeater:


i wont say what will happen in 2012, but i will say what wont happen. December 21st, 2012, i will probably be doing wwhat i am now. December 22nd, i will be doing what i am now. that or outside. World wont end that day, i can put my life on that

and i say this as nicely a possible, will you please please please avoid talking about non-weather related news on here? please?


lol, half the time the blog is weather unrelated
In other news, scattered showers in TX...
Quoting RitaEvac:


lol, half the time the blog is weather unrelated



obviously. not neccassarily news. i hate listening to news, all it does is talk about the BAD news. noone ever talks about the GOOD news anymore
Quoting RitaEvac:


Yea, and it's been going on before Obama was in office
Multi-national 'corporations' have been running global politics forever... I actually felt sorry for Obama seeing him come to the realization that he was not the big dog in the fight... more local control is the only way to go.. 2012 and every year holds much promise to those who truly seek for the good of their 'neighbor'. IMHO
Quoting RitaEvac:
Somebody on here tell me, just what is good going to come to us in 2012? start naming things

Economy going to be just fine? no weather disasters? food for Africa? come on now be positive


1. 2011 will be over with.
2. There are no time machines that could force us to go back to 2011 again.
3. 2012 is a "positive" year. ... Well, that is something anyway.
4. 2012 will the year that the Mayans will continue their calendar. ... OK, this is just my best guess.
5. 2012 has the potential of being better than 2011, in every aspect.
6. Should 2012 prove to be worse than 2011, then this to shall pass.
7. Everyone will be a year older by the end of 2012. ... OK, this may NOT be a plus but, I am running short of ideas.
7. Did I mention that 2011 will be over with?
Line forming and intensifying near I-35 in Central TX
Energy moving in!



Quoting RitaEvac:
Line forming and intensifying near I-35 in Central TX
You guys seeing any precip yet??
Quoting JNCali:
You guys seeing any precip yet??


Not in SE TX
From the Blog entry:-
"However, since the rains fell on regions where the natural forest had been illegally logged or converted to pineapple plantations,"
I suppose its a safe bet that most of the Logs and Pineapples were not being bought or meant for consumption by the people of the Philippines?
There are a lot more regions of the wold waiting for a rain/flooding disaster to happen. I know of tens of thousands of acres in southern Europe that are planted with olive trees,mostly very steep sided hills, not a blade of grass grows under most of them as the land is ploughed to virtual dust, most of the olives are for export.
When as is probably inevitable 10 inches of rain descends again in a day this kind of storm brought disaster is going to occur there as well.
Europe is supposed to have monitoring and inspectors but in reality there is very little of both. Maybe its illegal or just plain stupid but the end results are usually the same.
Sendong’ disaster foretold 3 years ago

The tragedy that struck the cities of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan was an event waiting to happen. It was foretold three years ago, but was dismissed by lawmakers as “too alarmist”.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Thing is, they aren't in the 2000s, those countries are still over 100 years behind if not more. All comes down to their dysfunctional government or lack there of. And America is right behind them, as dysfunctional as ours is getting...

The U.S. Census Bureau%u2019s annual poverty report, released this morning, found that 46.2 million Americans, or one in seven of us, were poor in 2010. The prolonged recession, with its high levels of unemployment, clearly has swollen the ranks of the poor.

But high numbers for poverty as defined by the Census Bureau predates the current recession. In most years for the past two decades, in fact, the Census Bureau declared that more than 35 million Americans were %u201Cliving in poverty.%u201D Last year%u2019s number was 43.5 million.

These figures sound ominous. But do we really understand poverty in the United States? What does it mean to be poor?


Stack up on your food supply, were right in line with the rest of the world
Seems to me the prolonged recession in the US is primarily caused by the same kinds of self-centred greed and willful destruction that is fueling problems in other parts of the world. When a small percentage of the world's population feels it is their right to control most of the world's resources, and when that group is willing to do whatever it takes to increase their power at the expense of the rest of the world's population, what else can one expect?
Quoting RitaEvac:
America is getting poorer. The U.S. government has just released a bunch of new statistics about poverty in America, and once again this year the news is not good. According to a special report from the U.S. Census Bureau, 46.2 million Americans are now living in poverty. The number of those living in poverty in America has grown by 2.6 million in just the last 12 months, and that is the largest increase that we have ever seen since the U.S. government began calculating poverty figures back in 1959. Not only that, median household income has also fallen once again. In case you are keeping track, that makes three years in a row. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, median household income in the United States dropped 2.3% in 2010 after accounting for inflation. Overall, median household income in the United States has declined by a total of 6.8% once you account for inflation since December 2007. So should we be excited that our incomes are going down and that a record number of Americans slipped into poverty last year? Should we be thrilled that the economic pie is shrinking and that our debt levels are exploding? All of those that claimed that the U.S. economy was recovering and that everything was going to be just fine have some explaining to do.
I'd be asking those who recently went into Congress on the promise of job creation but have since only passed laws designed to revoke human rights, cut pay and eliminate jobs.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Seems to me the prolonged recession in the US is primarily caused by the same kinds of self-centred greed and willful destruction that is fueling problems in other parts of the world. When a small percentage of the world's population feels it is their right to control most of the world's resources, and when that group is willing to do whatever it takes to increase their power at the expense of the rest of the world's population, what else can one expect?
I love it when someone tells the truth. Especially without all the glitter and B.S.
That is a good question. Maybe the NHC might reevalute it and then we might get a different answer. I am sure someone here could answer that question better than I. But you raised a good point. Perhaps the with a neutral la Nina, it could make a difference. I really hadn't thought of it in those terms, but it is something to think about. I wonder how many others noticed it, though.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


This is what happens when you export your manufacturing jobs to other countries that do not protect their workers, the environment or any other semblance of human rights or ethics. NOW you want to complain because it is hitting us where it was always intended to hit us? Outsourcing our jobs overseas was NEVER intended to raise the living standards of the people of these other nations. The intent always was to lower our standards to that of the other nations. This is your redistribution of wealth. We are nearly there now.
It's also only able to work as effectively as it has when the people making decisions believe corporations are more important / valuable than people / country. I see it here at home; business "tycoons" who hire non-Bahamians, particularly illegal ones, because they don't have to pay them as much, and because they don't have to pay National Insurance for them; Bahamian builders who fill in the wetlands, build houses on them, then deny all responsibility when the buyers are flooded out in the next heavy summer downpour; and so on. There seems to be a serious reverence for having money that itself adds to the poverty of those without it [at least partially because it devalues the lives of those who are not rich as being somehow less valuable or important].
Quoting Grothar:
That is a good question. Maybe the NHC might reevalute it and then we might get a different answer. I am sure someone here could answer that question better than I. But you raised a good point. Perhaps the with a neutral la Nina, it could make a difference. I really hadn't thought of it in those terms, but it it something to think about. I wonder how many others noticed it, though.
Wuzup Gro....cold up here..
One thing I'd genuinely expect in 2012 is a shift to el nino conditions in the Pacific. I think a three-year long la nina would be pretty much an unprecedented thing, and it seems to me quite likely that we'll be moving into el nino by the ASO period next year. Of course I'm looking at historical trends more so than anything else, but I think my expectations aren't that illogical...
Quoting hydrus:
Wuzup Gro....cold up here..


I'm down here and the weather is nice an warm. We have friends flying down on Wednesday from the Northeast. They keep mentioning a storm, but I don't see anything yet. Anybody have any info.?
why cant i post an animated image? everytime...i have the web address 100% correct....but it dont work!
Quoting SPLbeater:
why cant i post an animated image? everytime...i have the web address 100% correct....but it dont work!
I've never been able to do it, either, though I think I figured out how to do the utube stuff.
Quoting BahaHurican:
One thing I'd genuinely expect in 2012 is a shift to el nino conditions in the Pacific. I think a three-year long la nina would be pretty much an unprecedented thing, and it seems to me quite likely that we'll be moving into el nino by the ASO period next year. Of course I'm looking at historical trends more so than anything else, but I think my expectations aren't that illogical...
Even though El nino wopuld be lovely the only price that would come for that is lack of tropical cyclones.I have a blast when tracking them.Of course not when they run into land and cause damage.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I've never been able to do it, either, though I think I figured out how to do the utube stuff.


oh well! i can give the link to animations, lol
Quoting washingtonian115:
Even though El nino wopuld be lovely the only price that would come for that is lack of tropical cyclones.I have a blast when tracking them.Of course not when they run into land and cause damage.
Agreed, though 2004 was El nino and we still good a fairly good number of storms in the ATL. However, I've been taking '04 / '05 as kind of a matched set, with some upper-air dynamics in place that facilitated storm formation in spite of ENSO contitions, rather than because of them. April 2012 forecasts should be pretty interesting...
Quoting RitaEvac:


Not in SE TX
Less than 2 tenths in Southcentral Texas, skies are clearing now, rain is east of Austin moving northeast.
Quoting SPLbeater:



obviously. not neccassarily news. i hate listening to news, all it does is talk about the BAD news. noone ever talks about the GOOD news anymore
I will agree with you there...most news is negative. Definitely one of the reasons I don't like watching/listening to it very much. Sometimes it just seems like its more depressing than it is informative and I wonder, why am I watching this?
Quoting presslord:
Well worth repeating!
At least thirteen million people in East Africa are in need of food aid. Weather Underground has partnered with the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to help the Horn of Africa region during the ongoing famine. With the help of the Weather Underground community, we hope to raise $10,000 that will go toward helping the refugees survive the crisis. Weather Underground will match the community's donation dollar-for-dollar up to $10,000 for a total donation of $20,000. Please visit the International Rescue Committee donation page to help out. Ninety cents of every dollar donated goes directly to the people in need.
Link


Worth repeating...again
Quoting SPLbeater:
why cant i post an animated image? everytime...i have the web address 100% correct....but it dont work!



It's easy.


Quoting BahaHurican:
Agreed, though 2004 was El nino and we still good a fairly good number of storms in the ATL. However, I've been taking '04 / '05 as kind of a matched set, with some upper-air dynamics in place that facilitated storm formation in spite of ENSO contitions, rather than because of them. April 2012 forecasts should be pretty interesting...
2004 was just....strange.And then we all know how 2005 turned out.I think It'll be a while before we see another El nino hurricane season like 04.
I miss cold Florida winters. Looks like the CPC's expectations of winter in the Southeast are playing out quite accurate so far. Complete opposite of December last year here.
Quoting Jedkins01:
I miss cold Florida winters. Looks like the CPC's expectations of winter in the Southeast are playing out quite accurate so far. Complete opposite of December last year here.


How many Florida winters have you experienced?
Quoting Grothar:



It's easy.




that dont help, i need to know HOW....or WHY, it dosnt work
Quoting Jedkins01:
I miss cold Florida winters. Looks like the CPC's expectations of winter in the Southeast are playing out quite accurate so far. Complete opposite of December last year here.


I miss 2010 and Snowmageddon.... I've had more snow in October than November and December (so far) combined!!!
Quoting Grothar:


I'm down here and the weather is nice an warm. We have friends flying down on Wednesday from the Northeast. They keep mentioning a storm, but I don't see anything yet. Anybody have any info.?
The storm track has been more toward the Great Lakes. This storm is forecast to take a more easterly track, so they might get some rain changing to snow.
Quoting Xandra:
Sendong%u2019 disaster foretold 3 years ago

The tragedy that struck the cities of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan was an event waiting to happen. It was foretold three years ago, but was dismissed by lawmakers as %u201Ctoo alarmist%u201D.


Interesting. Obviously I don't have all of the facts, but between this and Dr.Masters' blog it sounds like article has been concluding the same disaster as a result of pure climate change and topography, whereas Dr.M pointed out that it actually wasn't too abnormal, and was more so a result of deforestation and topography... a factor that the article doesn't seem to consider. If Dr.M's analysis is correct, then it seems as though the article should foretell of bigger calamities... or at least more widespread.

Also, that article is the problem with a LOT of governments worldwide today... they won't consider things until after they happen, and they won't get worked up over a situation regardless of the facts. Those storm surge barriers along NYC and the east coast that Dr.Masters blogged about a few weeks ago... won't be built- the idea might get thrown around from time to time, but i'm almost willing to bet that almost all of the communities that he recommended won't get serious about beefing up until the next "big one" hits, but by then it'll probably be another 30 years or so until the barriers are needed again.

Edit: Regarding my point about this particular storm not necessarily involving climate change, i know that Dr. Masters did point out that the atmosphere was abnormally moist for this time of year... had it been summer, they likely would have seen even greater rainfall. I was referring to the fact that the max rain fall of 7 or 8 inches, on its own, isn't an exceptional quantity for the region.
Quoting TomTaylor:
I will agree with you there...most news is negative. Definitely one of the reasons I don't like watching/listening to it very much. Sometimes it just seems like its more depressing than it is informative and I wonder, why am I watching this?
ding ding ding! we have a winner! That is the question that everyone needs to ask themselves.. Why am I allowing this garbage to be input into my brain? Gemuine news sources are getting so hard to find.. as soon as one gets popular it gets bought out by the mainstream and the content goes to c-rap.. Television has been one huge social engineering project from the start and the internet has allowed for incredible amounts of personal information to be collected (how many of you have disabled your Cookies?) The mind control foil hat crowd is living in the past I'm afraid.. and to think of how many kids have been babysat by a TV over the last 40 years.. The general populace has become so desensitized.. just look at the prime time shows on TV now.. censorship has become a joke. I pulled the plug on cable 2 years ago (I have 3 small boys) the shows that were decent would have totally inappropriate commercials.. If we don't take responsibility for ourselves we surely get what we deserve..
Weather here in Mid TN is nice and mild this evening.. this place is truly God's country, seems like all the nasty stuff either heads up the Missippissi or goes south around us..
Somalia is a horrible demonstration of what happens when a country has no rule of law. All of the aid getting sent their was being co-opted by the warlords and their militias.. Solution? Surrounding countries have to support a revolution within the Somali populace.. odds of that happening? Greed = Suffering and I firmly believe that God is keeping track of every tear being shed by every starving child and there will be hell to pay by those responsible. IMHO
Quoting JNCali:
ding ding ding! we have a winner! That is the question that everyone needs to ask themselves.. Why am I allowing this garbage to be input into my brain? Gemuine news sources are getting so hard to find.. as soon as one gets popular it gets bought out by the mainstream and the content goes to c-rap.. Television has been one huge social engineering project from the start and the internet has allowed for incredible amounts of personal information to be collected (how many of you have disabled your Cookies?) The mind control foil hat crowd is living in the past I'm afraid.. and to think of how many kids have been babysat by a TV over the last 40 years.. The general populace has become so desensitized.. just look at the prime time shows on TV now.. censorship has become a joke. I pulled the plug on cable 2 years ago (I have 3 small boys) the shows that were decent would have totally inappropriate commercials.. If we don't take responsibility for ourselves we surely get what we deserve..
Weather here in Mid TN is nice and mild this evening.. this place is truly God's country, seems like all the nasty stuff either heads up the Missippissi or goes south around us..
Somalia is a horrible demonstration of what happens when a country has no rule of law. All of the aid getting sent their was being co-opted by the warlords and their militias.. Solution? Surrounding countries have to support a revolution within the Somali populace.. odds of that happening? Greed = Suffering and I firmly believe that God is keeping track of every tear being shed by every starving child and there will be hell to pay by those responsible. IMHO
How long have you lived in Middle Tennessee.?
MNF to be delayed, Blown Transformer..no Lights at Stadium.

San Fransisco
Nice pics Taz,
Quoting Patrap:
Nice pics Taz,



plzs note that they where not take in by me plzs look at the link on where i got them from
But... they said that fallout would dissipate and that it was too far away for any effect on US....

Medical Journal Article: 14,000 U.S. Deaths Tied to Fukushima Reactor Disaster Fallout

WASHINGTON, Dec. 19, 2011 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ - Impact Seen As Roughly Comparable to Radiation-Related Deaths After Chernobyl; Infants Are Hardest Hit, With Continuing Research Showing Even Higher Possible Death Count.

An estimated 14,000 excess deaths in the United States are linked to the radioactive fallout from the disaster at the Fukushima nuclear reactors in Japan, according to a major new article in the December 2011 edition of the International Journal of Health Services. This is the first peer-reviewed study published in a medical journal documenting the health hazards of Fukushima.Authors Joseph Mangano and Janette Sherman note that their estimate of 14,000 excess U.S. deaths in the 14 weeks after the Fukushima meltdowns is comparable to the 16,500 excess deaths in the 17 weeks after the Chernobyl meltdown in 1986. The rise in reported deaths after Fukushima was largest among U.S. infants under age one. The 2010-2011 increase for infant deaths in the spring was 1.8 percent, compared to a decrease of 8.37 percent in the preceding 14 weeks.The IJHS article will be published Tuesday and will be available online as of 11 a.m. EST at http://www.radiation.org . Just six days after the disastrous meltdowns struck four reactors at Fukushima on March 11, scientists detected the plume of toxic fallout had arrived over American shores. Subsequent measurements by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) found levels of radiation in air, water, and milk hundreds of times above normal across the U.S. The highest detected levels of Iodine-131 in precipitation in the U.S. were as follows (normal is about 2 picocuries I-131 per liter of water): Boise, ID (390); Kansas City (200); Salt Lake City (190); Jacksonville, FL (150); Olympia, WA (125); and Boston, MA (92). Epidemiologist Joseph Mangano, MPH MBA, said: "This study of Fukushima health hazards is the first to be published in a scientific journal. It raises concerns, and strongly suggests that health studies continue, to understand the true impact of Fukushima in Japan and around the world. Findings are important to the current debate of whether to build new reactors, and how long to keep aging ones in operation.

MORE..... Link
Quoting Tazmanian:
Link







Dragons and the loch ness monster?
Quoting Tazmanian:
Link





Nice and great link.
Previous 5.0, 5.3 and 60 or more replicas, were preceded by three days of little activity in the PR area. Seems like fault energy acumulated and was released......

So, We better watch out, cause right now there is another inactive period.. There has been only 3 yesterday and no reported quakes for today...



MAP 1.9 2011/12/18 14:16:42 18.168 -67.372 24.2 22 km ( 14 mi) SW of Stella, PR
MAP 2.6 2011/12/18 07:31:32 18.196 -67.354 15.2 18 km ( 11 mi) SW of Stella, PR
MAP 2.4 2011/12/18 01:50:14 18.180 -67.342 15.7 19 km ( 12 mi) SSW of Stella, PR
Interesting cloud formations in Alabama.

Link
Quoting RevElvis:
Interesting cloud formations in Alabama.

Link




see commet 95
Quoting hydrus:
How long have you lived in Middle Tennessee.?
almost a month now!
is there anybody here who lives in Europe, or just gets up early...cuz i would like to have somebody to help with my website, and issue the 1200Z TWOs, 1200Z is early where i live so i dont git it on time. if anybody wants to volunteer, plz mail me :D
Quoting Tazmanian:
Link





very cool pics, taz

interesting explanation on the link too


Regarding those wave shaped cloud pictures seen in Alabama on Friday Dec 16, the link Taz posted mentioned it being caused by a difference between two different layers of the atmosphere. One layer moving slower and being cooler, while the other is moving much quicker and is significantly warmer. This can easily be seen in the 12z sounding out of Birmingham Alabama from Dec 16, 2011 as the temperature rapidly changes just above the 700mb level, as does the wind speed.

Surf is up! Never seen clouds like that in real life.
700 mb is around 12,000 feet. That's a lot higher than these clouds.

Here's the original posting.

Explanation from the Reddit discussion:

"These are indeed Kelvin-Helmholtz waves. What is happening is that the nocturnal near-surface layers (lowest 50-100m) of the atmosphere are much more stable than the layers above it in the mornings. Until the ground heats up due to daytime heating, the surface layers stay more stable than the air over it. Kelvin-Helmholtz waves occur when the wind shear between the layers destabilizes the topmost portion of that stable layer, and entrains the air into the unstable layer. What you see is stable air being lifted, cooled, and condensed so that this process becomes visible, though this commonly happens many places without being visible."
man it sure is quiet...i shall break the silence!
Quoting sunlinepr:
But... they said that fallout would dissipate and that it was too far away for any effect on US....

Medical Journal Article: 14,000 U.S. Deaths Tied to Fukushima Reactor Disaster Fallout

WASHINGTON, Dec. 19, 2011 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ - Impact Seen As Roughly Comparable to Radiation-Related Deaths After Chernobyl; Infants Are Hardest Hit, With Continuing Research Showing Even Higher Possible Death Count


I'm really going to have to see the data that led to these conclusions. The study is being touted on PR Newsline, which is a paid PR service. The study won't be available on the IJHS site but only on Radiation.org, which is a fairly biased website and not noted for scientific articles. From the little I can find so far, the higher levels of I-131 were found in precipitation. There's no mention of the huge increases claimed by the authors in any kind of food that humans would consume. I'm not saying that this study is wrong, but it is quite an unusual way to introduce a peer reviewed study to the scientific community.
Quoting 1911maker:


It was meant to be "tongue in cheek" given the doom and gloom the blog was expressing. It was the first thing that popped up that looked appropriately nutter based.

OK, sorry, missed the tongue in cheek part. There are so many people spouting this wacky Mayan 2012 stuff that I just automatically assumed you were another one. :)
Hey everybody thats bored...ah whatever. i got a NEW BLOG out, check it out! PLEASE

Link
who would have thought, that SPLbeater would have such a difficult time just trying to increase traffic to his website? VERY surprising!

(sarcasm flag: ON)
Quoting presslord:


Worth repeating...again


Presslord, did you read my post #45? I was rather waiting for a response from you. How can you say, with any certainty, that ninety cents of every dollar will get to the people that actually need it? Can you tell me how much has been donated this year from agencies and the public? Can you tell me how much food aid has managed to run the gauntlet of corrupt government troops, corrupt African "peacekeeping" forces, and the usual assortment of thugs and mercenaries working for the warlords and rebels? It's one thing to get money to an address in New York or London and quite another to get the food purchased with that money to Somalia. If all the money that has been currently been spent for aid was converted to food and delivered, no one should be starving. The fact that the number of starving is not decreasing but, in fact, is getting worse, tells me we are not doing much good following the same old path to help these unfortunate people.

My nephew, a former Navy SEAL, is working for an NGO (that I'd rather not name, for reasons that will become obvious) that is involved in getting food and medical aid to eastern Somalia and parts of Kenya. About 50% of the donations to this NGO are used by him and his team to train and equip mercenaries - humanitarian mercenaries, if you will. His mercenaries use "technicals" - the heavily armed pickup trucks so commonly seen in the Horn of Africa - to escort convoys, and have been involved in numerous firefights with the same groups I wrote about above. Because they are better trained and equipped than most of those forces, more of the food aid gets through. They rarely have to engage in firefights now, because the thieves and thugs know there are softer targets to go after. They are now getting about 95% of the food to the destinations they need it most. I have no idea how the IRC handles these same situations, but being in a convoy with white trucks and red crosses is a good way to get killed and have all the vehicles and food stolen. Of course, this NGO does not publicize they are running what is essentially their own private army to get food through, but I have no problem with the idea. I'd rather see 50% of the food get through than virtually none. Unless you can assure me that the IRC has some similar kind of system get food through these hostile areas, I view donating as worse than throwing money down the drain. My donations are actually helping to support and arm groups that will spread the conflict and cause even greater starvation. Sorry if this all seems harsh, but talking to my nephew has really opened my eyes about what the real problems are in the Horn of Africa, and drought is merely the backdrop to massive human rights violations.
i have a quesTION!!
on a traffic graph on my website, does the activity chart that tracks visitors..does it count me? im working and editing the TWO all day
Quoting SPLbeater:
on a traffic graph on my website, does the activity chart that tracks visitors..does it count me? im working and editing the TWO all day


It might, although a good website traffic counter only looks at unique IP's. Easiest way to find out is log in and then log out. Log in again and see if the count went up by one or stayed the same.
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:25 pm CST Tuesday 20 December 2011

Valid until the end of Friday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A monsoon trough near the north coast of the Top End is moving north into the
Arafura Sea. A low pressure system is expected to develop in the trough within
the next 12 to 24 hours and may intensify further into a tropical cyclone on
Friday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:
Wednesday: Low.
Thursday: Moderate.
Friday: High.


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane


Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:35pm EST on Tuesday the 20th of December 2011 and valid until end of
Friday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A low situated southeast of Papua New Guinea is moving in a south-southwesterly
direction and is expected to develop further over the next couple of days. The
low is forecast to turn southeast, away from the Queensland coast, later in the
week. The low is expected to remain offshore and not directly affect the
Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Wednesday:High
Thursday: Moderate
Friday: Moderate


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00pm WST on Tuesday the 20th of December 2011
Valid until midnight WST Friday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
There are currently no significant lows in the region.

A low is likely to develop outside of the Western Region in the vicinity of 7S
90E during Wednesday and Thursday. This low may develop further and enter the
Western Region during Friday.

Likelihood of this low becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Wednesday :Very Low
Thursday :Very Low
Friday :Low

During Wednesday and Thursday a low is likely to form in the vicinity of the Top
End, east of 125E. This system may develop into a tropical cyclone on Friday,
but is likely to remain east of 125E. There still remains a slight chance that
this system will drift west into the Western Region late on the weekend or early
next week.

Likelihood of this low becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Wednesday :Very Low
Thursday :Very Low
Friday :Very Low

Significant chance of monsoon trough off Australia's northern coastline developing into a Christmas cyclone

IT may not be such a merry Christmas for folks in the Northern Territory if forecasts of a cyclone by the weekend come true.

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Angeline Prasad said there is a greater than 50 per cent chance a monsoon trough off the coast will become a low in the Arafura Sea.

"This system has got a significant chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by the weekend," she said.

On Christmas Eve in 1974, Cyclone Tracy devastated much of Darwin and killed 71 people.

She said there was a high probability that any tropical cyclone that formed in the system would strike Australia between the Kimberley coast and the Carpentaria coast.

"We try our best to get a model consensus and work out where it is going to move and which part of the coast it will hit, and at this stage we can't say," she said.

Ms Prasad said the danger period for a cyclone crossing into Australia would be between Friday and Sunday, with a small chance the cyclone could form by Thursday.

People in the Top End should ensure they have a cyclone kit ready, with a radio, batteries, essential clothes and food for three days, and the location of the nearest cyclone shelter, Ms Prasad said.

"It is the cyclone season and it is going to continue until April and a cyclone can occur at any time," Ms Prasad said.

The northern part of Australia typically experiences two to three cyclones each season, which lasts until April, but this year forecasters are expecting slightly more than average.

In the southern Philippines, the toll of dead and missing from the cyclone that swept the southern Philippines has exceeded 1000 as cities prepared mass burials for the victims.

The government disaster monitoring council said in its latest update that tropical storm Washi had left 957 dead and 49 missing after lashing the southern island of Mindanao and surrounding areas at the weekend.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Significant chance of monsoon trough off Australia's northern coastline developing into a Christmas cyclone

IT may not be such a merry Christmas for folks in the Northern Territory if forecasts of a cyclone by the weekend come true.

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Angeline Prasad said there is a greater than 50 per cent chance a monsoon trough off the coast will become a low in the Arafura Sea.

"This system has got a significant chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by the weekend," she said.

On Christmas Eve in 1974, Cyclone Tracy devastated much of Darwin and killed 71 people.

She said there was a high probability that any tropical cyclone that formed in the system would strike Australia between the Kimberley coast and the Carpentaria coast.

"We try our best to get a model consensus and work out where it is going to move and which part of the coast it will hit, and at this stage we can't say," she said.

Ms Prasad said the danger period for a cyclone crossing into Australia would be between Friday and Sunday, with a small chance the cyclone could form by Thursday.

People in the Top End should ensure they have a cyclone kit ready, with a radio, batteries, essential clothes and food for three days, and the location of the nearest cyclone shelter, Ms Prasad said.

"It is the cyclone season and it is going to continue until April and a cyclone can occur at any time," Ms Prasad said.

The northern part of Australia typically experiences two to three cyclones each season, which lasts until April, but this year forecasters are expecting slightly more than average.

In the southern Philippines, the toll of dead and missing from the cyclone that swept the southern Philippines has exceeded 1000 as cities prepared mass burials for the victims.

The government disaster monitoring council said in its latest update that tropical storm Washi had left 957 dead and 49 missing after lashing the southern island of Mindanao and surrounding areas at the weekend.


YES! YES! i got back up! woohoo!!! i noted this area this morning, and have continued to do so(referring to the area on Coral Sea) and was wondering if i was going over the top regognizing it as a disturbance, but this is just what i need to give me confidence!
Quoting bappit:
700 mb is around 12,000 feet. That's a lot higher than these clouds.

Here's the original posting.

Explanation from the Reddit discussion:

"These are indeed Kelvin-Helmholtz waves. What is happening is that the nocturnal near-surface layers (lowest 50-100m) of the atmosphere are much more stable than the layers above it in the mornings. Until the ground heats up due to daytime heating, the surface layers stay more stable than the air over it. Kelvin-Helmholtz waves occur when the wind shear between the layers destabilizes the topmost portion of that stable layer, and entrains the air into the unstable layer. What you see is stable air being lifted, cooled, and condensed so that this process becomes visible, though this commonly happens many places without being visible."
Thanks that makes more sense. Those clouds are definitely not at the 700mb level.

Weak. but there..a shifting in the winds...*evil laugh* LOL
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE 03-20112012
10:00 AM RET December 20 2011
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Subtropical Depression 3 (1004 hPa) located at 25.8S 44.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity: Nil

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 25.5S 43.6E - 25 knots (Depression subtropicale)
24 HRS: 25.2S 42.5E - 20 knots (Low Pressure Area)

Additional Information
=======================

The system has failed to intensify, near gale force winds to very locally gale force winds still exist within a convergence line located far away form the center in the southeastern quadrant (335 NM to 535 NM from the center) due to the gradient effect with the subtropical ridge.

LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.
time for bed. night all!
Study links tropical cyclones to earthquakes

US researchers say they have found evidence that tropical cyclones in Haiti and Taiwan were followed by earthquakes, suggesting that heavy rains and landslides may unleash temblors.

"Very wet rain events are the trigger," says University of Miami scientist Dr Shimon Wdowinski, an associate research professor of marine geology and geophysics.

"The heavy rain induces thousands of landslides and severe erosion, which removes ground material from the Earth's surface, releasing the stress load and encouraging movement along faults."

Wdowinski and a colleague from Florida International University analysed data from major earthquakes - magnitude six and higher - in Taiwan and Haiti over the past 50 years and found that large quakes tended to follow within four years of a very wet tropical cyclone season.

In some recent cases, quakes happened sooner, such as in 2009 when Typhoon Morakot in Taiwan was followed the same year by a magnitude 6.2 quake and another 6.4 quake in 2010.

Morakot killed 614 people and left 75 missing, burying entire villages and dumping a record three metres of rain in what is considered one of the island's worst natural disasters.

Typhoon Herb hit in 1996, killing hundreds in China and Taiwan, and was followed two years later by a 6.2 earthquake and then a 7.6 earthquake in 1999.

After 1969's Typhoon Flossie was followed three years later by a magnitude 6.2 quake in 1972, the researchers write.

The team also looked at the 2010 magnitude seven earthquake in Haiti and found it came a year and a half after two hurricanes and two tropical storms drenched the island nation within 25 days.

The quake hit in January last year and levelled the capital Port-au-Prince, killing more than 225,000 people and leaving one in seven homeless. An ensuing cholera epidemic left more than 5000 people dead.

Shifting surface loads
The researchers says their theory is that the heavy rains and landslide shift enough weight away from the surface load above the fault that a quake is triggered.

"The reduced load unclamp the faults, which can promote an earthquake," says Wdowinski.

The hypothesis only fits areas where there are fault lines on an incline, such as mountainous regions where the waters would push the land significantly far away from cracks deep in the Earth's bedrock.

The researchers plan further study of weather conditions in the Philippines and Japan to see if the same links can be observed.

The findings were presented at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Society in San Francisco.


Earthquake scientists fear Italian trial

Mega-quake clusters unlikely: study
deadliness cyclones reminds me of vietnam body count people throughout the world are producing people in increasing numbers because of this we should expect a increase in the number of casualities
Miami NWS Discussion

SOME COOLER WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
HOW COOL IS IN QUESTION...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE
20.00Z GFS RUN DIGS A SHARP AND DEEP TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN
STATES...WITH A FORMIDABLE COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS SOUTH FL ON
MONDAY. THIS WOULD COOL TEMPS BRIEFLY TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL BY
NEXT TUE-WED. HOWEVER...THE 20.00Z ECMWF RUN SHOWS A LESS
AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH NOT NEARLY THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AS PER THE
GFS. EITHER WAY...NO "COLD" AIR OF SIGNIFICANCE IS SHOWN BY EITHER
MODEL OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. ALSO...BOTH MODELS SHOW MINIMAL QPF
WITH THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND INSTABILITY LOOKS LACKING FOR
TSTORMS...SO KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

Reeee-dikerous

Wow, I need to move to Miami, where I can ride my motorcycle 12 months out of the year!

it's 39 and raining in Indy!
Short video clip of the clouds over Birmingham - Dec. 16

Link
The Voice of NOAA Weather sings Deck the Halls....

Link
We could reach the mid 80's here in orlando later this week once the SSW flow kicks in.
4 Foot Snow Drifts as Plains Blizzard Rages

by weather.com & Associated Press

Updated: Dec. 20, 7:31 a.m. E/T


Boise City, Oklahoma, in the far western portion of the state's panhandle, is virtually shut down by the blizzard (Twitpic: @ rickmitchellwx)

WICHITA, Kan. (AP) -- Fierce winds and snow that caused fatal road accidents and shuttered highways in five states, crawled deeper into the Great Plains early Tuesday, with forecasters warning that pre-holiday travel would be difficult if not impossible across the region.

Hotels were filling up quickly along major roadways from eastern New Mexico to Kansas, and nearly 100 rescue calls came in from motorists in the Texas Panhandle as blizzard conditions forced closed part of Interstate 40, a major east-west route, Monday night

Almost here.


Good Morning. These La Nina Winters are always very interesting because of the perceived "odd" weather they produce for certain parts of the US like the South with potential record breaking warm temps in the Winter. Likewise, other parts of the Nation get hammered with Blizzards and Snowstorms come Jan.....Then because of the dryness in the South and drought issues, come the Spring, you will see lots of pollen in the air from all the oak trees in the SE and spikes in term of allergies and lots of runny noses.
OOPS Sorry ST2K ya beat me to it. Got all excited there was an actual flood advisory to my north where it needs to be.




Front pushing in, causing lift over Brazoria and Galveston counties.

La Niña continues across the Pacific Basin
Issued on Wednesday 7 December | Product Code

La Niña conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the La Niña is likely to peak during the next month and last at least until the end of summer. Atmospheric indicators of ENSO, including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloudiness, all displayed some strengthening over the past fortnight, with the current SOI value of +15 being the highest since the breakdown of the 2010-11 event in May 2011. Similarly, the classic La Niña ocean patterns in the tropical Pacific have become more clearly defined over the past month.
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Tropical Low 02U
11:00 PM EST December 20 2011
===================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Low 02U (1003 hPa) located at 13.7S 154.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving east northeast at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.3S 155.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 17.2S 154.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 19.2S 155.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
======================

T2.0. Convection has increased in the last few hours with diurnal trend. Organization improving slightly.

Favorable outflow in all quadrants under the influence of an upper atmospheric anticyclone. No significant wind shear expected over the next 2 days before an upper trough should impact the system on Friday. As a result the system is expected to develop over the next 48 hours and move to the south-southeast on Wednesday and Thursday, before experiencing increasing wind shear and steering
to the southeast.

The next tropical cyclone update from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at around 19:00 PM UTC..
Australia's heating up.
Perhaps the scariest picture of 2011.
Quoting Ameister12:
Australia's heating up.


Yup; from the same AusMet ENSO discussion below:

La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year and summer across large parts of Australia, particularly the eastern and northern regions. Daytime temperatures are typically cooler than average and tropical cyclone risk for northern Australia increases during the cyclone season (November to April). During La Niña years, the first tropical cyclone to cross the Australian coast typically occurs in the first half of December. For detailed rainfall and temperature outlooks, please see: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead.

re: 147, was that Joplin?
Hey, Chick... looks like.
Quoting Chicklit:
re: 147, was that Joplin?

Tuscaloosa: "Photo is from UPS driver, Jimmy Jones...He took the picture on April 27, from under the 31st Street Bridge Overpass at I-359. The damaged vehicle on the other side of the road, to the right of the red SUV, is his UPS truck. He was headed in the opposite direction before the tornado struck!"

(Note the person crawling from the driver's side of the red SUV.)
Quoting Ameister12:
Australia's heating up.


i must add to that image:D
Quoting Chicklit:
re: 147, was that Joplin?

No. It's Tuscaloosa. The picture was taken by a UPS driver, Jimmy Jones under the 31st Street Bridge Overpass moments after the tornado passed by.
Link
Philippines Floods 2011: Government Declares State Of Calamity As Death Toll Nears 1,000

ILIGAN, Philippines -- The government shipped more than 400 coffins to two flood-stricken cities in the southern Philippines on Tuesday as the death toll neared 1,000 and President Benigno Aquino III declared a state of national calamity.

The latest count listed 957 dead and 49 missing and is expected to climb further as additional bodies are recovered from the sea and mud in Iligan and Cagayan de Oro cities.

A handful of morgues are overwhelmed and running out of coffins and formaldehyde for embalming. Aid workers appealed for bottled water, blankets, tents and clothes for many of 45,000 in crowded evacuation centers.

Navy sailors in Manila loaded a ship with 437 white wooden coffins to help local authorities handle the staggering number of dead. Also on the way were containers with thousands of water bottles.

Most of the dead were women and children who drowned Friday night when flash floods triggered by a tropical storm gushed into homes while people were asleep.

Dozens of grieving relatives of at least 38 victims wept openly during funeral rites at the Iligan city cemetery. Many wore masks to try to block the stench of decomposing bodies.

"We have to give the dead a decent burial," Mayor Lawrence Cruz said. He said authorities were using part of the cemetery's passageway to build tombs.

A Briton was the first foreigner reported dead in the flooding, according to the British Embassy in Manila. It didn't provide details.

Aquino, on a visit to Cagayan de Oro on Tuesday, said the declaration of a national calamity will help local authorities gain quick access to recovery funds and keep prices of basic goods stable.


"Our national government will do its best to prevent a repeat of this tragedy," Aquino told residents who came to greet him.

He said there would be an assessment of why so many people died, if there was ample warning that a storm would sweep through the area, and why people living along riverbanks and close to the coast had not been moved to safety.

"I do not accept that everything had been done. I know that we can do more. We must determine what really happened," Aquino said. "Must this end in tragedy? We knew that (storm) was coming. There should have been efforts to avoid the destruction."

The U.N. food agency flew in 3 tons of high-protein biscuits together with water tanks, blankets, tarpaulins and tents for some 75,000 people. Shortage of water was still a major problem in the two cities.

In New York, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed concern, U.N. deputy spokesman Farhan Haq said.

"The United Nations and its partners stand ready to support the government in responding to this disaster," the deputy spokesman added.

A resident wades through a flooded street with an electric fan following a flash flood that inundated Cagayan de Oro city, Philippines, Saturday, Dec. 17, 2011. A tropical storm triggered flash floods in the southern Philippines, killing scores of people and missing more. Mayor Lawrence Cruz of nearby Iligan said the coast guard and other rescuers were scouring the waters off his coastal city for survivors or bodies that may have been swept to the sea by a swollen river.
(AP Photo/Froilan Gallardo)
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
The Voice of NOAA Weather sings Deck the Halls....

Link
Great link. Thank you for posting it.
There are now 366 Giorni day's until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Tuesday.
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 366 Giorni day's until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Tuesday.



is there point too this?
Quoting Tazmanian:



is there point too this?


Dec. 21. 2012 taz. ;)
The point is, Pat is using Voodo magic countdown
Getting more rain at my house than in quite awhile. It's still raining.. This does constitute news in these parts. Lol.  Hopefully I'll be getting an accurate measure of these things in the near future thanks to a rain gauge a friend told me about. Thanks D.  ;-)  However the temps dropping quickly since the onset  of the rain. Started out at 67 now down to 55. 
Being from the home of voodoo and all, [US] why is one surprised?

LOL

I gatta admit I was wondering what a Giorni day was, but have been too lazy to look it up...
So... an actual cold front, AtHome? [Though it seems it fizzles before Florida...]
Looking it up doesn't give a clear picture.