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Tropical Storm Warnings in Hawaii for Darby

By: Jeff Masters 9:18 PM GMT on July 22, 2016

Tropical Storm Warnings are flying for the Big Island of Hawaii and Maui as Tropical Storm Darby steams westwards at 11 mph towards Hawaii. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was in Darby Friday afternoon, and found top surface winds near 60 mph and a surface pressure of 999 mb. Friday afternoon satellite loops of Darby showed a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that were changing little in intensity. Wind shear was a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near 26.5°C (80°F), which just at the 80°F threshold needed to sustain a tropical storm. Rainfall from Darby should appear on radar out of the Big Island by Friday night.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Darby.

Forecast for Darby
SSTs and wind shear are predicted to remain about the same through Saturday, so no significant changes in Darby's intensity are likely to occur as the storm approaches the Big Island and Maui. Slow weakening is likely beginning on Saturday evening as Darby interacts with the high terrain of the Big Island, and I expect Darby will affect Hawaii as a weaker storm than Tropical Storm Iselle of 2014, which hit the Big Island with sustained winds of 60 mph. Iselle caused about $80 million in damage.

Heavy rains causing flash flooding and mudslides are the main danger from Darby. The 12Z Friday run of the HWRF model predicted Darby would bring widespread rainfall amounts of 4 - 8" to all of the Hawaiian Islands, with some areas of 8 - 16" on the Big Island and Maui. Strong wind gusts will also be a concern, as the high volcanoes of the Big Island and Hawaii will act to create damaging wind gusts in some areas, even if the sustained winds affecting land are below tropical storm strength. In their 5 pm EDT Friday Wind Probability Forecast, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center gave Hilo on the Big Island the greatest chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph: 63%. Honolulu had a 33% chance, and Kahului, Maui a 51% chance.


Figure 2. Radar image from the South Hawaii radar at 7:49 am EDT August 8, 2014 of Tropical Storm Iselle near landfall on the Big Island. The radar beam was being intercepted by the high mountains of Hawaii, and could not "see" to the northwest.


Figure 3. Tracks of all tropical cyclones (tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) to pass within 100 miles of the Hawaiian Islands, 1949 - 2014. Hurricanes approaching from the east typically fall apart before they reach Hawaii due to the cool waters and dry air that lie to the east of the islands. Only two named storms approaching from the east have hit the islands since 1949, an unnamed 1958 tropical storm and Tropical Storm Iselle of 2014, which hit the Big Island. Hurricanes approaching from the south represent the biggest danger to the islands, due to the warmer waters and more unstable air present to the south. The only two major hurricanes to have affected the islands since 1949, Hurricane Iniki of 1992 and Hurricane Dot of 1959, both came from the south. Image credit: NOAA/CSC.

Direct hits by tropical storms and hurricane are uncommon in Hawaii
Tropical Storm Iselle made landfall along the southeast shore of Hawaii's Big Island on August 8, 2014 as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Iselle was only the second tropical storm on record to hit the Big Island, and was the strongest. The Big Island's other tropical storm was an unnamed 1958 storm that had sustained winds of 50 mph at landfall. Iselle was just the fourth tropical storm or hurricane to make a direct hit on any Hawaiian Island since accurate records began in 1949. However, Hawaii has seen a lot of activity over the past three years, which may be a harbinger of things to come--see my August 2014 post, Climate Change May Increase the Number of Hawaiian Hurricanes.

Eastern Pacific ties a July activity record: 7 named storms
The Eastern Pacific's record parade of July tropical cyclones continued this week, with the formation of Tropical Storm Georgette and Tropical Storm Frank. Both storms are expected to reach Category 1 hurricane status, but neither is expected to affect land. Georgette is the seventh named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific this month, tying the July record for named storms set in 1985. Since July 2, we've had Tropical Storm Agatha, Category 4 Hurricane Blas, Category 2 Hurricane Celia, Category 3 Hurricane Darby, Tropical Storm Estelle, and now Frank and Georgette. This puts us well ahead of climatology: the Eastern Pacific usually does not see its seventh named storm until August 7, its third hurricane until July 27, and its second major hurricane until August 19. An average season has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.


Figure 4. VIIRS visible satellite image of Tropical Storms Darby, Estelle, and Frank, plus Tropical Depression 8-E, taken at 8 pm EDT Thursday July 21, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

Atlantic still slumbering--but for how long?
As is usually the case when the Eastern Pacific is active, the Atlantic is quiet. This inverse correlation in activity occurs because the conditions over the Eastern Pacific driving this July's bounteous activity--surface low pressure and rising air--creates a compensating area of sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, creating surface high pressure and dry weather--the antithesis of conditions needed for tropical cyclone formation. There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days. However, for the first time all month, NHC is not highlighting any new areas for tropical cyclone development in the Eastern Pacific over the next five days, and the GFS model is not predicting anything new will form. That may mean it will be the Atlantic's turn to get active during the last few days of July, and a number of recent runs of the GFS model have been highlighting the possible development late this month of a tropical wave predicted to come off the coast of Africa around July 27. There will be plenty of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) around through the end of the month, though, which will likely make it challenging for any tropical waves to develop (check out this animation of the 10-day African dust forecast from NASA.)

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doctor.

I wish the best for Hawaii.

Quoting 248. weathergirl2001:

I hope there's a good Atlantic hurricane to track soon. I hate it when the hurricane season waits till school to get active.


Ohh...wait until August when the SAL diminishes. Those are healthy lows coming off Africa and they can only get healthier in a few weeks.

This set up for this hurricane seaon is not good at all for the Carib/Bahamas/SE USA.

Please be prepared.
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1971
Thanks for the current recap Dr. While SAL may suppress development of this pending wave, and through the end of the month, they will continue to pave the way for the ones that follow. I can see why the models are looking at this huge area of convection at the moment on the African Continent. 




Have a safe weather weekend and hoping for minimal impacts for Hawaii from Darby and praying for the families of the fallen in Munich this afternoon. See Yall next week.


Here they come! Not too much longer till the season begins for the CV wave train
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Quoting 3. bigwes6844:

Here they come! Not too much longer till the season begins for the CV wave train

Bingo! That big wave in Eastern Africa is what we will be watching for early next week.
Thanks, Dr. Masters!

I would've expected a tropical storm watch for Oahu by now.

Looks more like a el nino pattern out in the eastern pacific than a on coming la nina pattern.
Didn't even think about radar being blocked by the mountains. 13,000+ feet tall and very voluminous. Mauna Loa takes up most of the island.

Quoting 232. RobertWC:

Oil Lobby Paid Washington Post and Atlantic to Host Climate-Change Deniers at RNC

At the award-winning seafood restaurant in downtown Cleveland that The Atlantic rented out for the entire four-day Republican National Convention, GOP Rep. Bill Johnson turned to me and explained that solar panels are not a viable energy source because “the sun goes down.”

Johnson had just stepped off the stage where he was one the two featured guests speaking at The Atlantic’s “cocktail caucus,” where restaurant staff served complimentary wine, cocktails, and “seafood towers” of shrimp, crab cakes, oysters, and mussels to delegates, guests, reporters and, of course, the people paying the bills.

The event was sponsored by the American Petroleum Institute, the lobbying arm of fossil fuel giants like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhilips.

Johnson, a climate denier and influential member of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, spoke of a future when American scientists “solve these big problems” and “figure out how to harness the sun’s energy, and store it up, so that we can put it out over time.” His hypothetical invention, of course, is called a battery, and was invented over 200 years ago.


Link


That was star trek face-palm painful
18z GFS is running, time to see how it predicts the wave's future this run.
thanks for late afternoon update doc great as always

the switch is already thrown as the epac goes quiet the roar of the atlantic follows
Wow look at that! Whether this season ends up active or not, I'm very excited!!!
Quoting 3. bigwes6844:

Here they come! Not too much longer till the season begins for the CV wave train

Big day for rain across most of S.W. Florida. Large area of more than 2".
Impressive globally-warmed heat wave over much of the country. Flint, Michigan, the site of an ongoing leaded water crisis, reached 98 degrees - just one shy of the record from 1934. The low of 78, should it hold, is the warmest on record for this date and ties for the second warmest of all time. The warmest low is 79 from July 18, 1942. Lows of 78 were also recorded on July 15, 1977, July 19, 2013, and August 1, 2006.
So Jeff Masters, we won't see anymore storms in the Atlantic then.
Quoting 15. HurricaneAndre:

So Jeff Masters, we won't see anymore storms in the Atlantic then.



will you please just stop with that all ready
Quoting 15. HurricaneAndre:

So Jeff Masters, we won't see anymore storms in the Atlantic then.
Dr. Masters said that it appears since the Eastern Pacific has no development expected in the next 5 days the first time this month, the Atlantic's turn could be up next with this potential storm early next week.
96 hrs out, just 4 days away.
Dry air -typical of this time of the year- is going to kill any wave that tries to develop.
Watch the two storms in the top left corner.




Don't see any development on this run...at least not yet...doesn't look like we will see any yellow circle tonight:
It's not really dry air that is killing it this time, rather it is too far south.

It looks like it's trying to rap up.
Quoting 20. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Watch the two storms in the top left corner.br
notice dry air becomes less over time in the mdr same area coverage but the density has diminish as for two lows in the left that's a typical early mid arctic storm
Nothing but boring storms in the CPAC/EPAC, Thanks for the update Dr. Masters...
#sarc

Trying to develop the next wave now.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
3:00 AM JST July 23 2016
=========================
Sea around Minami tori-shima

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 23.9N 151.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 10 knots.
I want the Atlantic to wake up badly.

102.4F here, not the hottest day of the year yet....
Afternoon all ... from last blog:
Ah .... beautiful.... temp here has dropped from 93 at 3 p.m. to 77 now ... feels positively refreshing outside ....


And here's the reason why .... :o)

Quoting 244. hydrus:

There is a large and powerful wave over Central Africa..Should be interesting a week or so out.
IIRC that's likely to be the one that people have been up and downcasting for the last little while ... due offshore around the 27th.
Could someone answer me this, why does the weather models drop development before the storms form.
Quoting 28. HurricaneFan:

I want the Atlantic to wake up badly.


What could possibly go wrong?
Quoting 32. PedleyCA:



What could possibly go wrong?

Just bring on a few storms to track. July has been frustratingly boring for Atlantic fans.
Quoting 27. HadesGodWyvern:

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
3:00 AM JST July 23 2016
=========================
Sea around Minami tori-shima

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 23.9N 151.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 10 knots.
This IIRC is another sign that things are likely to start picking up in the ATL ... teleconnections between ATL and WPac in terms of development potential have been observed ....

care full what you all wish for you may just get your way with a strong cat 5 making land fall on the gulf coast some where
Development still occurs this run, just weaker, and more north.

GFS shows what appears to be another TW exiting African coast a few days after the mentioned one.
It's very common for models to drop storms, especially the GFS. The main reason this happens is because models aren't perfect, when you put it 5+ days out it is even more likely to drop the storm. While it's realistically possible that this storm does form, we all should've known better when seeing it first and saying "that's gonna happen". We call storms that are shown by models but never happen "ghost storms".
Quoting 31. HurricaneAndre:

Could someone answer me this, why does the weather models drop development before the storms form.
Quoting 7. washingtonian115:

Looks more like a el nino pattern out in the eastern pacific than a on coming la nina pattern.


there is a difference wash


Quoting 37. HurricaneFan:


GFS shows what appears to be another TW exiting African coast a few days after the mentioned one.
That is the July 31st wave, which ensembles were showing something for before.
Quoting 14. ClimateChange:

Impressive globally-warmed heat wave over much of the country. Flint, Michigan, the site of an ongoing leaded water crisis, reached 98 degrees - just one shy of the record from 1934. The low of 78, should it hold, is the warmest on record for this date and ties for the second warmest of all time. The warmest low is 79 from July 18, 1942. Lows of 78 were also recorded on July 15, 1977, July 19, 2013, and August 1, 2006.
101 at my house in Texas. Prayers up for the victims in Germany of the horrific attack.
Quoting 35. Tazmanian:

care full what you all wish for you may just get your way with a strong cat 5 making land fall on the gulf coast some where

maybe 3 different locations lets say Houston Miami Orleans not in that order cat 5 landfalls
Nada for now.
I wouldn't pay all attention to the African waves. Look locally within the next 2 weeks.


Darby, staying on course for the islands.
GFS destroys the high pressure on hour 384.
From the Arctic to Africa to the Amazon, More Troubling Signs of Earth Carbon Store Instability

The time for debate is over. The time for rapid response is now. The Earth System just can’t take our fossil-fueled insults to her any longer.

Link
Quoting 46. rmbjoe1954:

I wouldn't pay all attention to the African waves. Look locally within the next 2 weeks.


Quoting 30. BahaHurican:

Afternoon all ... from last blog:
Ah .... beautiful.... temp here has dropped from 93 at 3 p.m. to 77 now ... feels positively refreshing outside ....


And here's the reason why .... :o)

IIRC that's likely to be the one that people have been up and downcasting for the last little while ... due offshore around the 27th.



Lol. Apparently I'm going to be this name again. We got some of that beautiful rain earlier. Thought we were headed for the record of 99, but the rain started at around 1 and it was only 97 with a heat index of 109. Back up to 90 now 105 index.
Ugh...when will this change...
000
ABNT20 KNHC 222321
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
Interesting things happening in the deep southeast.


Quoting 44. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


maybe 3 different locations lets say Houston Miami Orleans not in that order cat 5 landfalls



Orleans,France is not in the basin last we checked.

Merci beaucoup'
Quoting 52. HurricaneFan:

Ugh...when will this change...
000
ABNT20 KNHC 222321
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
Never
There is a light at the end of the tunnel.
Quoting 56. Climate175:

There is a light at the end of the tunnel.

It seems like the light just gets farther and farther away
Quoting 57. HurricaneFan:


It seems like the light just gets farther and farther away



Its all relative to the observer.

This might be one of those situations in which the NHC waits until the wave gets off the West African Coast to put a yellow X on it, since the GFS is still really the only model actively showing development, and there is not really enough consensus from other models to mention it in the 5-day right now.
Quoting 58. Patrap:




Its all relative to the observer.


Indeed.
Awaiting the 23 July 00Z pouch Synopsys.
Future multiple volcanic eruptions will make today's natural disasters look tame.
That is a surface trough in the bahamas. Coriolis effect with the jet, just sayin,,



The Atlantic is asleep....not dead. Shhhh
Quoting 55. HurricaneAndre:

Never

You need some help, and i mean SERIOUS HELP. Maybe looking up Atlantic Hurricane Climatology would help.
Quoting 63. scott39:

Future multiple volcanic eruptions will make today's natural disasters look tame.
Its just a matter of time.
Quoting 55. HurricaneAndre:

Never


You need to seek some sort of group or something. You know better than this. These kinds of comments have no educational value to this site. It is July, which climatology says is the slowest month of the hurricane season and YOU know that.

Here's looking at you, kid!

Quoting 28. HurricaneFan:

I want the Atlantic to wake up badly .I wish it would sleep this year!
Quoting 71. akailm:


Few storms would be good. If they happen , let us hope for no harm
Quoting 3. bigwes6844:

Here they come! Not too much longer till the season begins for the CV wave train


Just a few more waves to clear the path of remaining dry air/SAL for future storms and CV season will be on its way
Quoting 70. Grothar:

Here's looking at you, kid!




East Atlantic has nothing for us this year



Burning right to the beach in Russia . Go down to the 250 meter resolution , these fires are burning with a lot of fuel , This is not the tiaga burning , This is tundra on fire , and really burning like the Chapparel in SoCal.

There’s no one up there setting fires, so whats the ignition source ? Dry lighting. Look closely at the pattern . A cloud comes over several bolts land, bingo a complex of fires.

This is an important shot of a moment in time.

Nobody in 2007 ever dreamed the Russian tundra would be burning like that dumpster fire by lake Erie.

Link
Things not typical in a SE Tropic night.

Quoting 75. RobertWC:

Burning right to the beach in Russia . Go down to the 250 meter resolution , these fires are burning with a lot of fuel , This is not the tiaga burning , This is tundra on fire , and really burning like the Chapparel in SoCal.

There’s no one up there setting fires, so whats the ignition source ? Dry lighting. Look closely at the pattern . A cloud comes over several bolts land, bingo a complex of fires.

This is an important shot of a moment in time.

Nobody in 2007 ever dreamed the Russian tundra would be burning like that dumpster fire by lake Erie.

Link
Thats terrible. Is this caused by burning fossil fuels in you opinion? I think so.
Quoting 55. HurricaneAndre:

Never

You will get the hurricanes and tropical storms soon, just relax. By this time next month you will tracking systems almost everyday and some might even be near you. It is July please let us enjoy the quietness of no ravaging system effecting anyone. The storms will come like they do every year hopefully not devastating everyone. I follow the tropics often and don't know why some get carried away of the quietness if you appreciate the full onslaught of storms why can't you appreciate the quietness of July like so many can?
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DARBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052016
200 PM HST FRI JUL 22 2016

...DARBY STILL MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 151.6W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and
Kahoolawe
Quoting 28. HurricaneFan:

I want the Atlantic to wake up badly.


Poking a cyclops with a stick is all fun and games until it wakes up and eats your face.

No sign of a stall or turn yet. Trade wind inversion clouds can be seen piling up on the northeast coast of the Big Island behind the 14,000 foot volcano.
The trough is stuck. We'll see what it looks like tomorrow but I think this is our next area of interest.

Major flooding in Beijing after the heaviest rain storm in 60 years - YouTube

Non-stop rains pour more misery on China

It seems that the Chinese "hoax" ain't working out for them.
Quoting 83. ProgressivePulse:

The trough is stuck. We'll see what it looks like tomorrow but I think this is our next area of interest.



You never know, storms can form without model support. But it isn't very common.
Quoting 57. HurricaneFan:


It seems like the light just gets farther and farther away
It always seems darkest just before day.
Quoting 65. ProgressivePulse:

That is a surface trough in the Bahamas. Coriolis effect with the jet, just sayin,,




Third one this week. I'm thinking this is the closest to a TUTT we're going to see this season, at least until we start getting cut off lows in Sept or Oct ....
It's ironic how we had a hurricane in the middle of winter but can't seem to form anything in the middle of summer.
Quoting 85. HurricaneFan:


You never know, storms can form without model support. But it isn't very common.


I've been tracking storms for 12 years now, sure they can and do.
Quoting 81. Xyrus2000:



Poking a cyclops with a stick is all fun and games until it wakes up and eats your face.

Welcome to the anthropocene .
LOVE THIS PIC

Quoting 78. sporteguy03:


You will get the hurricanes and tropical storms soon, just relax. By this time next month you will tracking systems almost everyday and some might even be near you. It is July please let us enjoy the quietness of no ravaging system effecting anyone. The storms will come like they do every year hopefully not devastating everyone. I follow the tropics often and don't know why some get carried away of the quietness if you appreciate the full onslaught of storms why can't you appreciate the quietness of July like so many can?
Within a week or two from now the models should be showing much more.

some much needed rain looks to be headed our way :)
Quoting 84. RobertWC:

Major flooding in Beijing after the heaviest rain storm in 60 years - YouTube

Non-stop rains pour more misery on China

It seems that the Chinese "hoax" ain't working out for them.
They need to get a handle on their emissions. They are dooming the entire world.
Record Gulf of Mexico hurricane drought in 130 years headline on weather channel!!
Quoting 94. help4u:

Record Gulf of Mexico hurricane drought in 130 years headline on weather channel!!

That could easily change this year if a storm entered the Gulf
96. SLU
Interesting convo between Ventrice and Blake on twitter about the wave the GFS develops:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 13h13 hours ago
GEFS up to 60% now on MDR genesis.. ECMWF finally showing a 10% risk. It all comes down to how models handle AEWs

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 13h13 hours ago
@MJVentrice while the AEW is important, the environment over the east Atlantic trumps it eventually, no?

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 13h13 hours ago
@EricBlake12 Environment is important and we are likely a go via intraseasonal state but the AEW the GFS is spinning up hasn't developed yet

Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
@MJVentrice is it existence or structure of the wave that is most concerning to you?

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 13h13 hours ago
@EricBlake12 existence. I want to see the wave be initialized in the model rather than being purely based off parameterizations

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 13h13 hours ago
@MJVentrice hmm. I'd say structure myself. The wave is in the Ec/gfs fields along 15e now. How the wave amplifies is more challenging to me

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 13h13 hours ago
@EricBlake12 I don't think so? It looks like the wave has yet to develop according to 700mb meridional wind

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 13h13 hours ago
@MJVentrice I'd use a diff field but the uncertainty is clearly higher than last wave
GFS ensembles still showing some development of the TW

Quoting 96. SLU:

Interesting convo between Ventrice and Blake on twitter about the wave the GFS develops:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 13h13 hours ago
GEFS up to 60% now on MDR genesis.. ECMWF finally showing a 10% risk. It all comes down to how models handle AEWs

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 13h13 hours ago
@MJVentrice while the AEW is important, the environment over the east Atlantic trumps it eventually, no?

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 13h13 hours ago
@EricBlake12 Environment is important and we are likely a go via intraseasonal state but the AEW the GFS is spinning up hasn't developed yet

Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
@MJVentrice is it existence or structure of the wave that is most concerning to you?

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 13h13 hours ago
@EricBlake12 existence. I want to see the wave be initialized in the model rather than being purely based off parameterizations

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 13h13 hours ago
@MJVentrice hmm. I'd say structure myself. The wave is in the Ec/gfs fields along 15e now. How the wave amplifies is more challenging to me

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 13h13 hours ago
@EricBlake12 I don't think so? It looks like the wave has yet to develop according to 700mb meridional wind

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 13h13 hours ago
@MJVentrice I'd use a diff field but the uncertainty is clearly higher than last wave

So what does that tells us.
Quoting 98. HurricaneAndre:

So what does that tells us.

It still has a slight shot at development. I'm placing development chances at 10% within 10 days.
Quoting 99. HurricaneFan:


It still has a slight shot at development. I'm placing development chances at 10% within 10 days.
ok.
Quoting 100. HurricaneAndre:

ok.

Like Climate175 said earlier, this could be one of those systems that the NHC does not mention until it actually exits the coast of Africa. I think the overall environment for it to develop will be at least marginally favorable for development. Recent tropical waves have eroded a lot of the SAL in the eastern Atlantic, and this could aid in development. Also, a CCKW will likely be there, which could give the TW a bit of a boost in development.

Quoting 48. PancakeState:

GFS destroys the high pressure on hour 384.



Fish storms time :/
Quoting 101. HurricaneFan:


Like Climate175 said earlier, this could be one of those systems that the NHC does not mention until it actually exits the coast of Africa. I think the overall environment for it to develop will be at least marginally favorable for development. Recent tropical waves have eroded a lot of the SAL in the eastern Atlantic, and this could aid in development. Also, a CCKW will likely be there, which could give the TW a bit of a boost in development.


ok I see. So when does this begins.
Quoting 90. ProgressivePulse:

LOVE THIS PIC


Why?
Quoting 103. HurricaneAndre:

ok I see. So when does this begins.

It begins when the NHC draws the yellow circle, let's hope this happens soon :)
No hurricanes or tropical storms have entered or developed in the Gulf of Mexico since September 2013, a stretch of well over 1,000 days.

OKay.... something's off with this statement.
Quoting 106. BahaHurican:

No hurricanes or tropical storms have entered or developed in the Gulf of Mexico since September 2013, a stretch of well over 1,000 days.

OKay.... something's off with this statement.

We've had plenty of Gulf tropical storms, including one just about 5 weeks ago. (Danielle)
Quoting 104. BahaHurican:

Why?



Natural, fast moving highway's thousands of miles long. Compared to the doldrums at the surface

109. beell
Quoting 98. HurricaneAndre:

So what does that tells us.


Eric Blake is not a big fan of the "semi-conventional" use of the 700 mb model surface for identification of an AEW.
Not a single yellow circle in july! Atlantic are you kidding me?
Quoting 106. BahaHurican:

No hurricanes or tropical storms have entered or developed in the Gulf of Mexico since September 2013, a stretch of well over 1,000 days.

OKay.... something's off with this statement.
Indeed.





Quoting 110. CaribBoy:

Not a single yellow circle in july! Atlantic are you kidding me?
Since we have 9 days left in the month, and with this wave expected to be off on Wednesday, that could change if NHC sees fit.
113. beell
Quoting 110. CaribBoy:

Not a single yellow circle in july! Atlantic are you kidding me?


“ESTRAGON: I can't go on like this.
VLADIMIR: That's what you think.”
― Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot
Situational Development here is possible IMO. Surface trough is stuck in an area of 0 shear

Darby's downpours drench
dangerously during dawn.
Drizzle dripping down.
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jul 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave moving into the western Caribbean along about
81W is moving west 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection associated with the broader circulation of this
feature is shifting westward from the western Caribbean and
across Nicaragua and Honduras, also extends southwest across
Cost Rica and into the southwest monsoonal winds from 04.5N to
11N between 81W and 97W. This wave will shift west across
Central America in the next 24-36 hours and continue to spawn
active convection ahead of it.


Proto-Howard?
Life's oddities. Notice how the area in the Bahamas is the "ONLY" cloud feature that is moving east? Upper or Surface take a stab..



Just a quick note to the admin staff for Web site, the tropical weather maps show Darby at 55 mph storm when the Central Pacific Hurricane center has it as 60 mph storm. Not much different with this storm but something to look at if/when the Atlantic season really kicks off.
00z GFS has begun running.
I would watch the trough in the Bahamas with great caution, we learned this from Joaquin last year and with SSTs even more boiling YOY, I think something could possibly happen in the next few days, models are not everything and I think meteorology has become just a bit too reliant on models instead of true scientific intuitive forecasting.
Quoting 75. RobertWC:

Burning right to the beach in Russia . Go down to the 250 meter resolution , these fires are burning with a lot of fuel , This is not the tiaga burning , This is tundra on fire , and really burning like the Chapparel in SoCal.

There’s no one up there setting fires, so whats the ignition source ? Dry lighting. Look closely at the pattern . A cloud comes over several bolts land, bingo a complex of fires.

This is an important shot of a moment in time.

Nobody in 2007 ever dreamed the Russian tundra would be burning like that dumpster fire by lake Erie.

Link

That Dumpster by Lake Erie has a name you know, The Cuyahoga River.
Quoting 114. ProgressivePulse:

Situational Development here is possible IMO. Surface trough is stuck in an area of 0 shear



That's exciting. We sure could use rain in east Central Florida.
Quoting 101. HurricaneFan:


Like Climate175 said earlier, this could be one of those systems that the NHC does not mention until it actually exits the coast of Africa. I think the overall environment for it to develop will be at least marginally favorable for development. Recent tropical waves have eroded a lot of the SAL in the eastern Atlantic, and this could aid in development. Also, a CCKW will likely be there, which could give the TW a bit of a boost in development.



IMHO It's a bit misleading to speak of the "erosion" of the SAL since it's always being generated over the Sahara. It's more accurate to speak of the dynamics changing whereby the SAL is diminished by other factors and the ITCZ/monsoon trough has moved further north. A wild card is that persistent cold pool in the Atlantic south of Greenland which is likely enhancing subsidence, and thereby strengthening the high pressure over the Atlantic, and may even in part be responsible for any magnification of the SAL. Nonetheless, conditions favorable for tropical development will likely come together in some degree by late next month and into September.
Quoting 120. Climate175:

00z GFS has begun running.
Then you better go catch it!
Wasn't Levi Cowan talking about this Gulf/Bahamas system on Twitter a couple days ago?
Quoting 119. racer925:

Just a quick note to the admin staff for Web site, the tropical weather maps show Darby at 55 mph storm when the Central Pacific Hurricane center has it as 60 mph storm. Not much different with this storm but something to look at if/when the Atlantic season really kicks off.
The NHC gives maximum wind speeds in tropical cyclones in knots. 50 knots is 57.54 mph. 60 mph is closer. By a little bit. What you're seeing is different algorithms rounding 50 knots to either 55 or 60 mph. 60 mph is the more common result.
Quoting 125. BaltimoreBrian:

Then you better go catch it!
I have been ready for that response for a while, I knew someone was eventually gonna say it. LOL!
Surface vorticity a bit north of the blob. Still, this may happen.
Quoting 85. HurricaneFan:


You never know, storms can form without model support. But it isn't very common.


especially in situations like this


ssssttttt

Nice burst of new convection as the outer cloud shield of Darby has already reached the Big Island.
Quoting 129. Climate175:

I have been ready for that response for a while, I knew someone was eventually gonna say it. LOL!
I say lots of things. I was published in the New Yorker last spring. (sort of). See comment #1106 in my blog.
Hmmm
Hawaii hurricanes are always so fun to watch. :D
Quoting 102. CaribBoy:



Fish storms time :/


lolwut? That's MSLP. That has literally nothing to do with the 500 mb height fields; aka, what actually steers storms.




I don't see the vorticity consolidating south, but in those warm waters and low shear a strong eddy could possibly come up and amount to something. If it sneaks across the Straights then it's in the bath.
Quoting 135. unknowncomic:

Hmmm



Still think August will generate a hurricane there. The dry air in the MDR is irrelevant, and literally doesn't mean a darn thing for storms forming closer to home. People think I'm crazy, so feel free to hold me to it. But I don't just make stuff up, you know.
Quoting 139. KoritheMan:



Still think August will generate a hurricane there. The dry air in the MDR is irrelevant, and literally doesn't mean a darn thing for storms forming closer to home. People think I'm crazy, so feel free to hold me to it. But I don't just make stuff up, you know.


If you were wrong, 2005 would have never come close to 28 storms. You are right on.
Quoting 137. KoritheMan:



lolwut? That's MSLP. That has literally nothing to do with the 500 mb height fields; aka, what actually steers storms.


Thank you, good to know :))
Quoting 127. HurricaneFan:

Wasn't Levi Cowan talking about this Gulf/Bahamas system on Twitter a couple days ago?


Levi is a good forecaster. I am old school, look at the loops.
00z shows the TW at a higher latitude than 18z.

Quoting 141. CaribBoy:



Thank you, good to know :))


I have never seen a weather forum more paranoid of recurves than this one, lol. It's a lot more fun to just watch stuff instead of worrying about it. It's not like you can change it.
Borrowed from Christopher Burt's blog (weatherhistorian)

P.S. A low temperature of 41.6°C (106.9°F) was measured at Hoseyniyeh, Iran for the night of July 21-22. This appears to be the second-warmest low temperature ever reliably recorded on earth (The warmest low temperature was 41.7°C or 107.0°F on July 12, 2012 at Death Valley. (lows as high as 110°F recorded at Death Valley in August 1924 are dubious)
Robust.
Quoting 146. Climate175:

Robust.

I still think this one may have a chance.
Quoting 147. HurricaneFan:


I still think this one may have a chance.
Gonna have to see if the circulation is strong or not, I know for Danny last year when it's precursor wave was coming off, you knew that system was not going to play around.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
9:00 AM JST July 23 2016
==============================
In Sea Around Minami tori-shima

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 25.3N 152.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northeast at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 29.5N 155.5E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Sea Around Minami tori-shima
150. Tcwx2

It's a fighter!
Quoting 148. Climate175:

We still have to see if the circulation is strong or not, I know for Danny last year when it's precursor wave was coming off, you knew that system was not going to play around.
I don't think the wave has form yet.
Today was 103.5 at my place, 109 at KRAL and 104.8 at Indian Hills PWS. Third hottest day for my place this year.
153. IDTH
Quoting 121. Cyclone2016:

I would watch the trough in the Bahamas with great caution, we learned this from Joaquin last year and with SSTs even more boiling YOY, I think something could possibly happen in the next few days, models are not everything and I think meteorology has become just a bit too reliant on models instead of true scientific intuitive forecasting.

Joaquin actually came from an upper level low of all things. Yes though I see what you're saying, tail ends of troughs can spin up a lot of times without model support. Don't know if it'll happen or not with this one but we'll see.
Quoting 151. Gearsts:

I don't think the wave has form yet.
It has, it's still over East Africa.
Quoting 152. PedleyCA:

Today was 103.5 at my place, 109 at KRAL and 104.8 at Indian Hills PWS. Third hottest day for my place this year.
What's the hottest you ever measured at your place? And the coldest?
Quoting 153. IDTH:


Joaquin actually came from an upper level low of all things. Yes though I see what you're saying, tail ends of troughs can spin up a lot of times without model support. Don't know if it'll happen or not with this one but we'll see.


158. IDTH
Quoting 114. ProgressivePulse:

Situational Development here is possible IMO. Surface trough is stuck in an area of 0 shear



Levi did touch on this subject a few days ago actually.

"(1/2) No modeled threat, but I never quite trust waves that move into Bahamas with an old front coming and 30C SST."

159. IDTH
Quoting 156. ProgressivePulse:





0 shear, but plenty of dry air to it's east.
Quoting 155. BaltimoreBrian:

What's the hottest you ever measured at your place? And the coldest?


Without looking I would say just above freezing and 114F
113 F (2006) 7/22, this is probably the day I was thinking of, and the power went out too.
hopefully something comes of this area otherwise we are stuck in a TUTT for a while, nothing is moving.
163. IDTH
Again I always recommend Mark Sudduth's Hurricane outlook discussions and this one he compares 2013 and 2016 and where they were at this point SST anomaly wise.

Definitely check it out

Link
TS and moving NW.
Quoting 158. IDTH:


Levi did touch on this subject a few days ago actually.

"(1/2) No modeled threat, but I never quite trust waves that move into Bahamas with an old front coming and 30C SST."




Good For Him? What is your angle here?

Looks like a weak TS on this run :D
167. Tcwx2

Dry air looks to be cutting it off right about now but hey, at least it's back and we may have something to track!
Not Much Movement above the ITCZ'


lol
171. IDTH
Quoting 165. ProgressivePulse:



Good For Him? What is your angle here?


Define angle? Do you mean my thoughts on what could happen or you calling me out for something (not assuming, I'm just literally stumped by the way this worded)?
172. Tcwx2

I must admit, I am thoroughly impressed.
GFS shows the TS hanging on for a while...going to hear from the NHC soon?
Quoting 172. Tcwx2:


I must admit, I am thoroughly impressed.
Quoting 164. Gearsts:

TS and moving NW.



The NW motion doesn't make sense :/
Quoting 171. IDTH:


Define angle? Do you mean my thoughts on what could happen or you calling me out for something (not assuming, I'm just literally stumped by the way this worded)?


You didn't even acknowledge me in your response to my text, only the work of others? I did what I thought best "Good For Him"?
Quoting 176. CaribBoy:



The NW motion doesn't make sense :/


Pair that with the 500MB level and it may.



Darby nearing Big Island, no sign of deflection like a few days ago.
(click to enlarge)
Currently there is a profound weakness that will recurve all storms that develop in the east atl.
All I'm going to say is,is that if the presumed "storm" can stay in tact until about 60w then it may have a chance of another shot of life but the GFS has been insistent on dry air killing the "storm".
185. IDTH
Quoting 177. ProgressivePulse:



You didn't even acknowledge me in your response to my text, only the work of others? I did what I thought best "Good For Him"?

Oh I didn't mean it like that. I apologize if I didn't give you credit. I wasn't assuming you took anything from Levi I was just touching on the topic that Levi mentioned it before. I'm sorry if I offended you I didn't mean to take anything away from you.
Quoting 185. IDTH:


Oh I didn't mean it like that. I apologize if I didn't give you credit. I wasn't assuming you took anything from Levi I was just touching on the topic that Levi mentioned it before. I'm sorry if I offended you I didn't mean to take anything away from you.


I just didn't know how to respond, that's all. I don't follow levi or his twitter page so I didn't know what your "angle was" with your response. No harm no foul, I am harmless.
Quoting 183. ProgressivePulse:

Currently there is a profound weakness that will recurve all storms that develop in the east atl.


Omg no.
Quoting 187. CaribBoy:



Omg no.


That's here to stay if we're getting the setup I think we will. A "good" landfall pattern that steers hurricanes into the US typically recurves storm from the east. The eastern end of the ridge feeds positive vorticity advection, aka a trough.
Trough in the upper plains (Blue Orb) is going to try and drop into the High and weaken the eastern flank. Wonder if we will get another back door development, remember back a couple years ago?

Quoting 140. Hurricanes101:



If you were wrong, 2005 would have never come close to 28 storms. You are right on.


I'm always right.
Waves off Africa will continue to moisten the atmosphere. Pressures will slowly start to lower in the MDR. Anything that is developing right before 70W and after will have the hottest waters ever seen. The question shouldn't be IF a major hurricane is going to hit......it should be when and and where.
192. IDTH
Quoting 186. ProgressivePulse:



I just didn't know how to respond, that's all. I don't follow levi or his twitter page so I didn't know what your "angle was" with your response. No harm no foul, I am harmless.

You're fine and I'm harmless too.
Well not bragging but I think we hit 65° here in Acme Wa. Local news is claiming that Washington state was the only state in the lower 48 that had no stations hitting 90°.


Link
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
15:00 PM JST July 23 2016
==============================
Sea Around Minami tori-shima

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 26.7N 153.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northeast at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 32.3N 157.4E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Sea Far East Of Japan
Blog update on Darby.

Link
Link

This is an ASCAT image of the Bahamas, latest imagery shows a partial circulation developing over the western Bahamas. There is a surface trough embedded within the region. Over very warm SSTs and decreasing wind shear, this could be a situation in which a tropical cyclone tries to develop. Stay vigilant, though I think it is headed out to sea, might as well pay attention to it for now.


just look its forming lol not yet
We will have to watch the TW next week. GFS is back on board with development now but the ECMWF isn't really showing anything.
TS in 120 hours.

NHC, it's time to draw the yellow circle.
200. JRRP7
the ECMWF only has this

The GFs is the outlier we have to wait and see what happens
Quoting 199. HurricaneFan:

TS in 120 hours.

NHC, it's time to draw the yellow circle.


Actually it emerges at hour 96
Good morning WU bloggers and staff. 76 muggy degrees here in Destrehan,La. Ran my generator yesterday. Everything is a go just in case this year. Y'all stay safe.
I don't even think the NHC will acknowledge this to be honest i don't think it will develop
It will be weak if it does develop
Quoting 205. James1981cane:

It will be weak if it does develop


Agreed. I think a TD or weak TS is possible but nothing more
Quoting 206. HurricaneFan:


Agreed. I think a TD or weak TS is possible but nothing more


Yeah because of the multiple vortices they are fighting to become the main circulation which will affect the structure of the storm alot if one didform i think this would track more west mabye developing in the carribean or the bahamas
208. JRRP7
Pretty strong signal on the 6z GFS ensembles for the much discussed African wave to develop. I've avoided any comment on it so far given the time range, and it's still pretty far out at around 4 days until "splashdown". This will be a model battle though; GFS is definitely the outlier, but it's possible it could win one here. In any case, I would not expect the NHC to say anything about it until tomorrow at the very earliest. Beyond this wave, the GFS shows a healthy wave train continuing, but also a continued dumping of SAL into the east Atlantic.
210. MahFL
Quoting 145. BaltimoreBrian:

Borrowed from Christopher Burt's blog (weatherhistorian)

P.S. A low temperature of 41.6C (106.9F) was measured at Hoseyniyeh, Iran for the night of July 21-22. This appears to be the second-warmest low temperature ever reliably recorded on earth (The warmest low temperature was 41.7C or 107.0F on July 12, 2012 at Death Valley. (lows as high as 110F recorded at Death Valley in August 1924 are dubious)


Middle East in the grips of a major heatwave
Al-Jazeera - July 23.

"(...) The extreme heat is said to be having an impact on the refugees displaced by the assault on Fallujah. Shortages of drinking water and electricity were reported in the camps at Habbaniya and Amiriyat al-Fallujah.
El Nino has now died out, so an explanation for the heatwave probably lies elsewhere. 2016 is already shaping up to the warmest year, globally, since records began in 1880. Although a small portion of this warming is due to the El Nino earlier in the year, a much more likely cause is the continuing emissions of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere as a result of human activity.
Temperatures are likely to remain extremely high in the coming days and there is even the possibility of further records being broken towards next weekend. (...)"

The Middle East heat wave and climate change
Janice Sinclaire - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

The heat waves baking much of the United States are certain to result in speculation about the connection between global warming and extreme weather. To help clarify what science says about this situation, Chris Mooney at the Washington Post has written a helpful piece, "What science can tell us about the links between global warming and massive heat waves." As Mooney points out, scientists are increasingly willing to connect climate change to extreme heat waves, at least those "that appear out of the norm in some way." (...)
Quoting 204. James1981cane:

I don't even think the NHC will acknowledge this to be honest i don't think it will develop


In my experience, the NHC won't acknowledge a system until the Euro gets on board. Once that happens, they will get their "colored pencil" out.
aug is creeping up fast. good luck everyone


ironic we are looking to Cape Verde for rain when we have GOM much closer to home
Extremely dry and hot here in east central fla
Went fishing yesterday. Took water temp in the back of a creek off the intercostal waterway. I fished her for over 50 years and never seen a water temp of 100 degrees. Yes only 4-5 feet deep. Black mud bottom exposed at low tide for about 45 minutes. I keep a fishing log. Kind of OCD that way.

Hottest temp I ever recorded at same location was 96 degrees in 05. I tried line and net. NO fish were there. I may need to start looking for new and deeper fishing places after 50 years.

I cant speak for the world, but the weather here in St. Augustine is changing.
All the beautiful imported grasses are dying even when watered. That happens all the time but now the natural crabgrass and bayhay are dying. That aint never happened in my lifetime.

I wonder if it has to do with the contractors bulldozing every tree when they build. People used to build houses here. Now they build new towns (Palencia) www.vivapalencia.com and neibhourhoods.
wishing something homegrown would spin up so we could get some decent rain
we aren't even getting afternoon showers
Under the just wondering department, on the reports/forecasts for cities the temperature comment section will say "today will be warmer than yesterday". Does it ever say "hotter than yesterday"? I think the heat is getting to me.
Quoting 217. Chicklit:

wishing something homegrown would spin up so we could get some decent rain
we aren't even getting afternoon showers

We have gotten ALOT of lightening but no 0 zip nida rain in a long time. Maybe I should start tracking that also.
Quoting 216. Autistic2:

Went fishing yesterday. Took water temp in the back of a creek off the intercostal waterway. I fished her for over 50 years and never seen a water temp of 100 degrees. Yes only 4-5 feet deep. Black mud bottom exposed at low tide for about 45 minutes. I keep a fishing log. Kind of OCD that way.

Hottest temp I ever recorded at same location was 96 degrees in 05. I tried line and net. NO fish were there. I may need to start looking for new and deeper fishing places after 50 years.

I cant speak for the world, but the weather here in St. Augustine is changing.
All the beautiful imported grasses are dying even when watered. That happens all the time but now the natural crabgrass and bayhay are dying. That aint never happened in my lifetime.

I wonder if it has to do with the contractors bulldozing every tree when they build. People used to build houses here. Now they build new towns (Palencia) www.vivapalencia.com and neibhourhoods.


Crazy. I noticed the water temp at this buoy on the western end of Lake Erie near the City of Toledo water intake reached 86 degrees yesterday afternoon. Lake Erie is a little different than the ocean, especially the shallow western end, because it can have a fairly big diurnal range on hot, sunny days. However, the water temp is still 79 there this morning. Should peak back into the low to mid 80s this afternoon, as air temps climb to 92-96 this afternoon in NW Ohio.

Buoy 45165
Quoting 220. ClimateChange:



Crazy. I noticed the water temp at this buoy on the western end of Lake Erie near the City of Toledo water intake reached 86 degrees yesterday afternoon. Lake Erie is a little different than the ocean, especially the shallow western end, because it can have a fairly big diurnal range on hot, sunny days. However, the water temp is still 79 there this morning. Should peak back into the low to mid 80s this afternoon, as air temps climb to 92-96 this afternoon in NW Ohio.

Buoy 45165
Hi, there! Raised in Oregon, Oh. Remember all the perch that used to hang out by the old Toledo Edison coal fired electrical generating plant.
Another very warm month here in the Great Lakes. Several locations have mean temperatures that are approaching the top ten hottest July on record levels. Looks like most places will finish hotter than 2010, but a little cooler than 2011 and 2012 - although a couple locations could be close to those months. 2011 & 2012 were top 5 hottest in most locations (and record hot at some isolated spots). Definitely consistent with the trend towards hotter summers, although admittedly 2009 and 2014 were rather chilly Julys (relative to normal) for many spots. But 2010-13 were all very warm, and 2016 will also be another very warm July. 2015 was fairly close to normal in most spots.
Anyone looking at Darby this AM? It appears to be below the forecast points to me.
Quoting 174. HurricaneFan:

GFS shows the TS hanging on for a while...going to hear from the NHC soon?

Quoting 215. Grothar:





Fish storm
felix...1995 felix was a powerhouse this one should be weaker
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
21:00 PM JST July 23 2016
==============================
Sea Around Minami tori-shima

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 27.4N 155.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northeast at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 34.8N 158.7E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Sea Far East Of Japan
Darby looks a little bit better on radar as it approaches Hilo.Rainfall will be the main hazard.

If I remember correctly... I think Iselle, on radar anyway, seemed to be intensifying right before landfall. It may have been getting a boost from up sloping of rising air as it's center neared the big Island itself helping to increase precipitation production. I remember that eastern wall really improving structurally just prior to landfall, then by contrast the western side faced down sloping resulting in the opposite effect. Will be interesting to see Darby's interactions this go around.



Quoting 228. Tropicsweatherpr:

Darby looks a little bit better on radar as it approaches Hilo.Rainfall will be the main hazard.




It almost looks as if it's circulation is already feeling the Island. My eyes might be playing tricks on me but it looks as if it's bounced almost slight south of west...
OT: The Siberian Times is featuring on its main page at least four articles that can reasonably said to be of interest to those that are following climate change:

Link
Quoting 226. islander101010:

felix...1995 felix was a powerhouse this one should be weaker
???
We need a very weak tropical storm or at least the remnants of one ( Bill 2015) to bring us some good rains.We are still below average to date for the entire year and although we are not as dry as July 2012 I can still see stress on some of the trees and vegetation.

Capital Weather Gang %u200F@capitalweather 28m28 minutes ago
Already right around 90 in and near DC. Should try for 100 in spots. Heat advisory for heat index around 105 goes into effect at noon!
Quoting 232. MontanaZephyr:

OT: The Siberian Times is featuring on its main page at least four articles that can reasonably said to be of interest to those that are following climate change:

Link


Loved the summer bikini skiing article most def.
Quoting 193. plantmoretrees:

Well not bragging but I think we hit 65° here in Acme Wa. Local news is claiming that Washington state was the only state in the lower 48 that had no stations hitting 90°.


Link


Wow, Acme, WA! I used to live south down Hwy 9 in Marysville. I used to do some long cycling rides up 9 to 542/Artist Point or sometimes loop via 20 to 530/Arlington and back home. Beautiful area up there; I really miss that part of Washington.
Quoting 207. James1981cane:



Yeah because of the multiple vortices they are fighting to become the main circulation which will affect the structure of the storm alot if one didform i think this would track more west mabye developing in the carribean or the bahamas


What multiple vorticies?
right about here the GFS says it starts weakening and dies off eventually..........
Quoting 237. Hurricanes101:



What multiple vorticies?

If you look on the model there is a wave that comes off before our destined wave and a area of low pressure develops with that one.It looks to try and steal some of the energy away from the one the GFS has been picking up on.
Quoting 238. LargoFl:

right about here the GFS says it starts weakening and dies off eventually..........


So weak, so small, so north, so boring.
Quoting 231. ILwthrfan:



It almost looks as if it's circulation is already feeling the Island. My eyes might be playing tricks on me but it looks as if it's bounced almost slight south of west...

I noticed the same thing, but if you look more carefully at where the center actually is, you'll see it still headed west, albeit much more slowly than before. I think maybe the attendant at the Magic Anti-Hurricane Force Field Center woke up and flipped the switch.

I also noticed a flareup earlier that appeared to be blown southward, opposite in direction to the supposed wind shear over the system. Perhaps Darby has hit a col. There does appear to be a trough moving in from the northwest while the cutoff to the north seems to have stopped moving south.
Things you don't see every day:

This has been sitting here all summer.A storm has not come into contact with these waters and it looks like a trough forms in the long run to deflect any storm that's coming from the east.

TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052016
1500 UTC SAT JUL 23 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OAHU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KAUAI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI
AND KAHOOLAWE
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DARBY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
ADDITIONAL ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 153.9W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.

34 KT.......110NE 80SE 40SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 120SW 310NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 153.9W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 153.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.2N 155.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 156.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.9N 157.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.0N 159.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.8N 162.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 28.2N 164.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 32.7N 167.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
Thursday was bad in Central IL. Temp 93F with a dew point of 80F with a Heat Index that was 110 and above for a good period of time Thursday. Friday we benefited from an overnight MCS that kept my highs in mid 80s and dew points were barely 70 for all the day.

However today I am again beginning to see dew points increase into the 76-79F range over an ever expanding area from Central Iowa South and East to Indianapolis. I am already at 86 and it's 11am CDT. Heat Index here already 96F. Crops are very moist and with no clouds in the sky today to hold temps down a few degrees. Could see some 95F highs today. I really hope those pockets of 80F dewpoints stay away....:( no like.

and oh how I miss winter....

There is a area out in front of our wave that tries to steal its energy.Just like people T.C's like personal space
Quoting 246. washingtonian115:

There is a area out in front of our wave that tries to steal its energy.Just like people T.C's like personal space



looking at each model run, it seems the wave has little problems deflecting that away.
Quoting 224. Hester122:




Fish storm

.?
250. beell
From Wednesday evening.

433. beell
11:22 PM GMT on July 20, 2016

Still a puzzle for me. I'll keep it to less than 200 hrs out for now, lol.
:)

Per the obs and the GFS there is and will continue to be a persistent vort max/circulation associated with a vigorous monsoon trough-which is currently touching the African coast at a decently high latitude (above 15N), along with brisk northeast winds flowing around the southeast corner of the sub-tropical ridge.

A strong easterly wave leaving the coast AOA 140 hrs heading in the direction of the trough. Could be a veritable feedback feast for the GFS or it could go exactly as modeled.

The other issue is the potential for continued dry, dusty air at that latitude (nearing 20N?) in the far eastern Atlantic. A question regarding the quality of the thermodynamic environment under the heart of the SAL. That close to the African coast, the pre-existing vort max and rapid system development may intensify dry air entrainment

The flip side of that could be a rich tap of moisture from the south!


07/20 18Z GFS 850 mb vort, winds @ 72 hrs


07/20 12Z GFS 850 mb vort, winds @ 72 132 hrs
(oops)
When the wave initially comes off it looks to be feeding directly from the ITCZ however because it intensifies a little to early it goes north right into the SAL.
GFS has "Earl" and a friend....
Low pressure east of the Bahamas.
253. Tcwx2

GFS trying to develop next wave as well?
Quoting 253. Tcwx2:

GFS trying to develop next wave as well?
Looks like it.Has a very healthy wave coming off the coast with a area of low pressure and plenty of moisture.
255. beell
Quoting 252. MeteorologistTV:

Low pressure east of the Bahamas.


Got coordinates?
256. beell


Surface trough-promoted by the upper level low just east of the east coast of FL.

257. Tcwx2

It looks like it's so heavy that it sinks south though, lol.
Quoting 254. washingtonian115:

Looks like it.Has a very healthy wave coming off the coast with a area of low pressure and plenty of moisture.

Quoting 240. CaribBoy:



So weak, so small, so north, so boring.


Send it over here, we will make something out of it....
Quoting 258. PedleyCA:



Send it over here, we will make something out of it....


Yeah really. Don't knock a small one Ped. Get some while you can. Maybe help put a little dent in the drought.
Quoting 242. Neapolitan:

Things you don't see every day:




Yep. Kinda like my feet....Haven't seen those in a long time either.
Quoting 258. PedleyCA:



Send it over here, we will make something out of it....
Greetings Ped...I have seen those small systems turn into monsters many times....Wouldnt want to see one hit the gulf under the right conditions
Darby

GFS kills both storms but develops two more hurricanes in the east pacific with a third storm looking to form.So until that stops expect a pretty much suppressed Atlantic.Sure looks like another hyperactive season is in store for them.....
China once again:
China floods: More than 150 killed and hundreds of thousands evacuated
BBC, 1 hour ago
Floods in north and central China have killed at least 150 people, with scores missing and hundreds of thousands forced from homes, officials say.
Hebei and Henan provinces are the worst hit by the flash floods and landslides.
At least 114 people have been killed in Hebei, with 111 missing and 53,000 houses destroyed, officials say.
In one city, Xingtai, at least 25 people died, prompting people to demonstrate against the government for failing to warn them of the flooding. ...


Terrible!
[Edit: Took this video down after realizing it shows people being carried away by the flashflood and probably drowning.]
Quoting 261. Dakster:



Yeah really. Don't knock a small one Ped. Get some while you can. Maybe help put a little dent in the drought.


Good Luck with any rain here, unless the Monsoon drifts this way, otherwise NADA.... 103.5 here yesterday and 107 is forecast for Indian Hills today, YIKES....
Quoting 257. Tcwx2:


It looks like it's so heavy that it sinks south though, lol.


Note also that it tries to develop something on the Pacific side as well. A few weeks ago, the GFS had no problem pumping storm after storm into the Pacific. Most if not all of them (maybe more?) materialized in the space of 3wks. The fact that it is having such a hard time making a storm in the ATL is indicative that this basin just isn't ready yet. Mid to late Aug, maybe but not sure we will see anything in the next 2 weeks.
Quoting 268. LemieT:



Note also that it tries to develop something on the Pacific side as well. A few weeks ago, the GFS had no problem pumping storm after storm into the Pacific. Most if not all of them (maybe more?) materialized in the space of 3wks. The fact that it is having such a hard time making a storm in the ATL is indicative that this basin just isn't ready yet. Mid to late Aug, maybe but not sure we will see anything in the next 2 weeks.
This is why

Meanwhile the GFS shows a rich plume of moisture in the eastern pacific with more storms.Looks like we'll have to wait until 2017.People can make all the excuses they want but there is something wrong in the Atlantic.
Those who had hope that EPAC would turn quiet to then allow the Atlantic to turn active wont happen in the near future as washingtonian115 said,the activity there will continue according to GFS.

GFS and the other models most be a out liner


new two is out and nothing
Quoting 270. Tropicsweatherpr:

Those who had hope that EPAC would turn quiet to then allow the Atlantic to turn active wont happen in the near future as washingtonian115 said,the activity there will continue according to GFS.




looks like its showing more named storms it looks like it will be all about the E PAC this year that is how it is looking
Be interesting to see what might develop with that blobbit that began near the Panama Low and is just crossing into Honduras. If it makes it into the gulf of Honduras it might do something -- looks to have the hints of a spin, though the convection is dissipating some over land.
Quoting 269. washingtonian115:

This is why

Meanwhile the GFS shows a rich plume of moisture in the eastern pacific with more storms.Looks like we'll have to wait until 2017. People can make all the excuses they want but there is something wrong in the Atlantic.


You are jumping to conclusions. We see these constant comments like this every single year with nothing to back them up. It gets very tiresome.
Quoting 274. Hurricanes101:



You are jumping to conclusions. We see these constant comments like this every single year with nothing to back them up. It gets very tiresome.
The Atlantc has had problems with dry sinking air now in the tropics for 5 years and even the experts have said so.I guess they are just making up things too right?
Quoting 275. washingtonian115:

The Atlantc has had problems with dry sinking air now in the tropics for 5 years and even the experts have said so.I guess they are just making up things too right?


You said I guess we will wait until 2017. That comment is so ridiculous it does not even deserve to be typed in the first place.

Relax and do not let the lack of activity get to you so much.
Quoting 270. Tropicsweatherpr:

Those who had hope that EPAC would turn quiet to then allow the Atlantic to turn active wont happen in the near future as washingtonian115 said,the activity there will continue according to GFS.



16 days out. U guys are ridiculous.
Quoting 277. tiggerhurricanes2001:


16 days out. U guys are ridiculous.
The GFS also rightfully picked up the current four storms in the eastern pacific.Don't get mad at us for pointing these things.
Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi 5h5 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
As far as GFS skill with EPAC storms beating euro. Perhaps on ones that affect fish, but euro ensembles were superior on Darby 10

And I said "We'll have to wait for 2017" to see if the active era has either ended or if we're still in it.
The 5th named storm on average does not form until August 31st. We are a full 5 weeks ahead of schedule for just an AVERAGE season of 11 named storms. As Pat says, relax and have a Fresca.
Quoting 278. washingtonian115:

The GFS also rightfully picked up the current four storms in the eastern pacific.Don't get mad at us for pointing these things.
Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi 5h5 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
As far as GFS skill with EPAC storms beating euro. Perhaps on ones that affect fish, but euro ensembles were superior on Darby 10

And I said "We'll have to wait for 2017" to see if the active era has either ended or if we're still in it.


That is definitely not the context that it appeared to intend. Had you said that more clearly, I would have been fine with the comment. Also the 2016 season has already had 4 named storms, so it has been above average and active, just not this month.


Fires in Northwestern Siberia
NASA Earth Observatory, July 23, 2016
In mid-July 2016, satellites observed dense smoke over north-central Russia. Many of the fires appeared in the tundra-taiga interface, where boreal forests give way to low-lying vegetation and permafrost. ...

Siberia's wildfires seen from 1 million miles away: even the tundra is burning
By The Siberian Times reporter, 23 July 2016
Greenpeace claim authorities underestimate the scale of destruction, amid warnings of lack of resources to fight fires. ...
Abnormally high temperatures for this Arctic area - described as 'unbearable heat' - has been going on for six weeks. Forest and tundra has dried out and up to 10 new wildfires start every day. For example, over the past 24 hours over 1,000 hectares of forest tundra was affected by wildfires.

Detailed article see link above.

Regardless of its ramifications for the Atlantic, I'm not convinced the East Pac activity is done. It'll at least take a pause for the next several days, but the GFS and CMC show it coming back to life in the 8-14 day period. I'd certainly place higher odds on an early August development there as opposed to the Atlantic.
Afternoon all. I am currently under a cloud .... lol ... it's kinda fun to be able to observe the cloud in the distance, drive up under it, get rained on by it, then drive out under the other side into the brightly shining sun .... like the cloud was never there .... lol ... just a blip on the map ....

2 inches of rain in just 30 minutes here in Largo from this intense cell that developed over the area and is basically stuck
What causes the Atlantic to be quiet when the Pacific is active?
Largo, FL
1:48 PM EDT on July 23, 2016 (GMT -0400)
Pinebrook Estates | Report | Change Station
Report Station
Elev 36 ft

27.89 N, 82.74 W | Updated 48 sec ago
Thunderstorm

73.8 F
Feels Like 74 F

6.3 Wind from S
Gusts 6.7 mph

Pressure 30.08 in
Visibility 10.0 miles
Clouds Overcast 3000 ft
Heat Index 74 F
Dew Point 69.8 F
Humidity 86%
Rainfall 2.17 in
Snow Depth Not available.
Sun & Moon
6:49 AM 8:25 PM
Waning Gibbous, 84% visible
Quoting 278. washingtonian115:

The GFS also rightfully picked up the current four storms in the eastern pacific.Don't get mad at us for pointing these things.
Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi 5h5 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
As far as GFS skill with EPAC storms beating euro. Perhaps on ones that affect fish, but euro ensembles were superior on Darby 10

And I said "We'll have to wait for 2017" to see if the active era has either ended or if we're still in it.

Wait a minute. My comment never mentioned you, nor was it directed to you. I think you're the one getting mad. This July quietness is really getting to everyone's head. I suggest you'll get help, and i mean serious help, and i mean NOW.
Interesting to note, while we're well ahead on named storms, according to Ryan Maue's ACE page on Weatherbell, the Atlantic will very soon slip to below normal ACE for the season so far. This is why I've been saying that while named storms will probably be above normal this year, ACE will probably be straddling the average mark, and I suspect we'll fall a bit short of it. Again, that's nothing new/downcasting on my end, that was my original forecast, which I continue to feel good about. The Atlantic will awaken, but those hoping for a return to the first decade of the 2000s will likely be disappointed.
Quoting 270. Tropicsweatherpr:

Those who had hope that EPAC would turn quiet to then allow the Atlantic to turn active wont happen in the near future as washingtonian115 said,the activity there will continue according to GFS.




Yes, the EastPac will probably continue to be active, but this was the GFS model from July 20th predicting a hurricane in the Atlantic at 384 hours.
384 hours is pure fantasy and means nothing. It is pure entertainment and almost never verifies.


By the way, there's a recon plane in Darby right now. First pass finds the pressure right around the 1002mb that the previous CPHC advisory assessed. It's convection has perked up a bit, possibly due to DMAX, but that probably doesn't mean much. Just the typical "bursting" pattern of a steady state tropical storm.

Quoting 287. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Wait a minute. My comment never mentioned you, nor was it directed to you. I think you're the one getting mad. This July quietness is really getting to everyone's head. I suggest you'll get help, and i mean serious help, and i mean NOW.
Sounds like you're the one who needs help with that foul attitude of yours.
Looking at the GFS Sea Surface Pressure and 10m Wind Speed, its showing two strong hurricanes (one around 980 at 240 hours the other about 960 at 384 hours) forming in the Eastern Pacific and moving out to sea. So the pacific will continue to be active...this seems highly unusual, any thoughts?
Quoting 291. washingtonian115:

Sounds like you're the one who needs help with that foul attitude of yours.

It might be foul now , but I have a generally nice attitude in person. All I'm saying is it's 384 hours out. Something i don't trust. You had no business saying "don't be mad at the information we point out ". Tbh i don't care, and i have no time to argue. If you don't agree that's all you had to say, no reason to be rude.
Largo, FL

Elev 36 ft 27.89 °N, 82.74 °W | Updated 3 sec ago
Thunderstorm

73.0 °F
Feels Like 72 °F
N
0.0
Wind Variable
Gusts 0.0 mph

Pressure 30.06 in
Visibility 10.0 miles
Clouds Mostly Cloudy 3500 ft
Mostly Cloudy 12000 ft
Heat Index 72 °F
Dew Point 68.9 °F
Humidity 88%
Rainfall 2.72 in
Snow Depth Not available.
Quoting 284. Hurricanes101:

2 inches of rain in just 30 minutes here in Largo from this intense cell that developed over the area and is basically stuck


Wish we could get that rain on the East coast. We desperately need it.
Quoting 232. MontanaZephyr:

OT: The Siberian Times is featuring on its main page at least four articles that can reasonably said to be of interest to those that are following climate change:

Link
Sure are a lot of wx / climate related stories there ....

Quoting 281. barbamz:



Fires in Northwestern Siberia
NASA Earth Observatory, July 23, 2016
In mid-July 2016, satellites observed dense smoke over north-central Russia. Many of the fires appeared in the tundra-taiga interface, where boreal forests give way to low-lying vegetation and permafrost. ...

Siberia's wildfires seen from 1 million miles away: even the tundra is burning
By The Siberian Times reporter, 23 July 2016
Greenpeace claim authorities underestimate the scale of destruction, amid warnings of lack of resources to fight fires. ...
Abnormally high temperatures for this Arctic area - described as 'unbearable heat' - has been going on for six weeks. Forest and tundra has dried out and up to 10 new wildfires start every day. For example, over the past 24 hours over 1,000 hectares of forest tundra was affected by wildfires.

Detailed article see link above.


Robert's been updating us daily on this with pics from MODIS .... I don't think everyone is thinking about long term effects because Siberia seems so physically distant. ...
Quoting 258. PedleyCA:



Send it over here, we will make something out of it....


Here is my 7 day forecast PEd:



They said a 60% chance for rain and we got none. We are entering drought stage on the East coast of florida once again.
Is it hot on your side ? I heard that there is a brutal heatwave on it's way for much of the US.
Quoting 297. birdsrock2016:



Here is my 7 day forecast PEd:



They said a 60% chance for rain and we got none. We are entering drought stage on the East coast of florida once again.
Is it hot on your side ? I heard that there is a brutal heatwave on it's way for much of the US.

Never mind, started raining here a little bit.
Children, children ....

do stop the wrangling. Each of you has made your point. Now it's up to the ATL to "do its do". And I'm dividing the baby this way:

1) the GFS has been pretty consistent in showing a TWave between the 26th and 31st of this month developing into a low level TS in the eastern and central ATL, after which it fizzles out. Given the consistency in the EPac, I'd say there's a high chance of us seeing SOMEthing out there next week. Some super-duper long lived major? .... not so much.

2) the chances of the EPac continues as long as we don't see anything develop in the ATL, for the simple reason that the undeveloped ATL Twaves will continue to move into the currently highly favorable conditions in the EPac ... where they have few impediments to cyclogenesis. We may see a hiatus BECAUSE that wave next week may develop. If it doesn't, well... we won't.

On the matter of NHC ... we are still, what 3 - 4 days away from the parent AEW's arrival at the WAfrican coast. Given that even speedy development there has few possibilities for impact, why would NHC put out a notice before then? With storms like Bertha they had strong model support and a pre-existing low pressure system. This system doesn't currently warrant that kind of attention.
300. phear
Mauna Loa, Darby killer! Maybe Pele is also at work, but the volcano might bring another direct storm hit to its knees.

Landfall looks very similar to Iselle almost 2 yeas ago, which did cause issues in Puna region of the Big island, with storm surges and heavy rains, power outages, but spared the island chain much of any major storm issues after largely disintegrating on impact with the Mauna Loa massif.

Looks similar as we await actual landfall. I'm on NW side of the Big Island, some gentle rains gave way to patchy blue sky and a nice full rainbow half hour ago.... Predictions for 10+ inches of rain? Also similar to Iselle which left mabe half inch here, in the shadow of the volcanos.
Quoting 299. BahaHurican:

Children, children ....

do stop the wrangling. Each of you has made your point. Now it's up to the ATL to "do its do". And I'm dividing the baby this way:

1) the GFS has been pretty consistent in showing a TWave between the 26th and 31st of this month developing into a low level TS in the eastern and central ATL, after which it fizzles out. Given the consistency in the EPac, I'd say there's a high chance of us seeing SOMEthing out there next week. Some super-duper long lived major? .... not so much.

2) the chances of the EPac continues as long as we don't see anything develop in the ATL, for the simple reason that the undeveloped ATL Twaves will continue to move into the currently highly favorable conditions in the EPac ... where they have few impediments to cyclogenesis. We may see a hiatus BECAUSE that wave next week may develop. If it doesn't, well... we won't.

On the matter of NHC ... we are still, what 3 - 4 days away from the parent AEW's arrival at the WAfrican coast. Given that even speedy development there has few possibilities for impact, why would NHC put out a notice before then? With storms like Bertha they had strong model support and a pre-existing low pressure system. This system doesn't currently warrant that kind of attention.


Yea, I think we see Earl before the end of the month, could flirt with hurricane status before weakening.
Quoting 287. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Wait a minute. My comment never mentioned you, nor was it directed to you. I think you're the one getting mad. This July quietness is really getting to everyone's head. I suggest you'll get help, and i mean serious help, and i mean NOW.


Facts are facts, your suggestions are just that, suggestions. Please don't take things personally on here. People get corrected all the time and nothing malicious was meant here. For those of us lurkers, we don't like seeing people make rude suggestions to others who have been on this blog forever. Thank you... crawls back into lurker hole.
Quoting 299. BahaHurican:

Children, children ....

do stop the wrangling. Each of you has made your point. Now it's up to the ATL to "do its do". And I'm dividing the baby this way:

1) the GFS has been pretty consistent in showing a TWave between the 26th and 31st of this month developing into a low level TS in the eastern and central ATL, after which it fizzles out. Given the consistency in the EPac, I'd say there's a high chance of us seeing SOMEthing out there next week. Some super-duper long lived major? .... not so much.

2) the chances of the EPac continues as long as we don't see anything develop in the ATL, for the simple reason that the undeveloped ATL Twaves will continue to move into the currently highly favorable conditions in the EPac ... where they have few impediments to cyclogenesis. We may see a hiatus BECAUSE that wave next week may develop. If it doesn't, well... we won't.

On the matter of NHC ... we are still, what 3 - 4 days away from the parent AEW's arrival at the WAfrican coast. Given that even speedy development there has few possibilities for impact, why would NHC put out a notice before then? With storms like Bertha they had strong model support and a pre-existing low pressure system. This system doesn't currently warrant that kind of attention.


Thanks Baha, well said!
Quoting 296. BahaHurican:

Sure are a lot of wx / climate related stories there ....

Robert's been updating us daily on this with pics from MODIS .... I don't think everyone is thinking about long term effects because Siberia seems so physically distant. ...

baha the earth is being scorch with heat and fire
hence rising temps even further
as each feedback unfolds there is effect on the next feedback
faster and faster we go runaway effect
Quoting 300. phear:

Mauna Loa, Darby killer! Maybe Pele is also at work, but the volcano might bring another direct storm hit to its knees.

Landfall looks very similar to Iselle almost 2 yeas ago, which did cause issues in Puna region of the Big island, with storm surges and heavy rains, power outages, but spared the island chain much of any major storm issues after largely disintegrating on impact with the Mauna Loa massif.

Looks similar as we await actual landfall. I'm on NW side of the Big Island, some gentle rains gave way to patchy blue sky and a nice full rainbow half hour ago.... Predictions for 10+ inches of rain? Also similar to Iselle which left mabe half inch here, in the shadow of the volcanos.
Aha! I did tell everybody the HI bloggers would be in to let us know how things are going .... LOL ... glad to hear things aren't too bad. I still can't get over storms [2 in 3 years!] coming in over that eastern approach to the Islands. Something curving up from the south makes so much more sense to me.

Stay safe!
just had a really bad vision
maybe our lack of rain now
will get made up for in winter
as snow
see I am already into
the winter forecast model run now 1050 hrs out
307. vis0
Quoting 52. HurricaneFan:

Ugh...when will this change...
000
ABNT20 KNHC 222321
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
when that mini (counterclkwise) spin over North Texas toes the Gulf and the tropical wave (barely visible) Grothar mentioned (wk ago) when it was a juicy LOW over Africa catches up to the Caribbean...few days or in my crazy words as the next wxTrend takes hold. Lets Observe...
Quoting 307. vis0:

when that mini (counterclkwise) spin over North Texas toes the Gulf and the tropical wave (barely visible) Grothar mentioned (wk ago) when it was a juicy LOW over Africa catches up to the Caribbean...few days or in my crazy words as the next wxTrend takes hold. Lets Observe...


Could you elaborate please?
Quoting 306. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just had a really bad vision
maybe our lack of rain now
will get made up for in winter
as snow
see I am already into
the winter forecast model run now 1050 hrs out
From the Siberian Times link:

Mongolia has announced plans to build a cascade of hydropower plants, including one on the Selenga (Shuren) River, and two on Selenga tributaries - the Orkhon and Egyin Gol. Russian officials see this as posing a 'serious ecological threat' to Lake Baikal. Up to 50% of its annual water inflow is from the Selenga.


I find this remarkably ironic, after the Russians set in motion events that have led to the demise of the Aral Sea .... now they are on the receiving end of the boot. SMH
Quoting 305. BahaHurican:

Aha! I did tell everybody the HI bloggers would be in to let us know how things are going .... LOL ... glad to hear things aren't too bad. I still can't get over storms [2 in 3 years!] coming in over that eastern approach to the Islands. Something curving up from the south makes so much more sense to me.

Stay safe!


The ones from the south are the deadly ones. The volcano will tear Darby to shreds!
313. vis0

Quoting 306. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just had a really bad vision
maybe our lack of rain now
will get made up for in winter
as snow
see I am already into
the winter forecast model run now 1050 hrs out
i have a feeling Keeper knows Santa??? ...will Santa's sleigh be pulled by Nino*. Nina*, PDO, MJO, NAO, PNA and of cpourse RaDOLF  with its red radar beacon so bright.


*its a joke, in case child labor laws only reads a google search snippet and reads only "...nino pulling a sleigh."

back to observing the weather let me just open my window to allow some fresh air in since i just took a cool shower..

 HOLY MACKAROLLL!!!!!!!

now i know how a turkey feels when that oven ceramic ignition ignites the stove.GOOSH its hot
Quoting 313. vis0:


i have a feeling Keeper knows Santa??? ...will Santa's sleigh be pulled by Nino*. Nina*, PDO, MJO, NAO, PNA and of cpourse RaDOLF  with its red radar beacon so bright.


*its a joke, in case child labor laws only reads a google search snippet and reads only "...nino pulling a sleigh."

back to observing the weather let me just open my window to allow some fresh air in since i just took a cool shower..

 HOLY MACKAROLLL!!!!!!!

now i know how a turkey feels when that oven ceramic ignition ignites the stove.GOOSH its hot

Opening a window these days is likely to make the heat worse, not better ....

lol ...
Quoting 307. vis0:

when that mini (counterclkwise) spin over North Texas toes the Gulf and the tropical wave (barely visible) Grothar mentioned (wk ago) when it was a juicy LOW over Africa catches up to the Caribbean...few days or in my crazy words as the next wxTrend takes hold. Lets Observe...



Nobody ever listens to me, vis0. They just wait for my jokes. Even though I've nailed every system for the last 10 years!!!! :) P.S. Don't tell Taz that I saw it first.
316. vis0

Quoting 304. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


baha the earth is being scorch with heat and fire
hence rising temps even further
as each feedback unfolds there is effect on the next feedback
faster and faster we go runaway effect
If i may...
Quoting 311. Gearsts:



That is a pretty drastic shift from our current pattern, with a massive dome of high pressure over the CONUS.
318. vis0
Quoting 315. Grothar:



Nobody ever listens to me, vis0. They just wait for my jokes. Even though I've nailed every system for the last 10 years!!!! :) P.S. Don't tell Taz that I saw it first.

good idea, i'll just say you saw it Alpha
We may have entered a dead period for hurricanes for years to come everything this year in Pacific energy is staying in that area no energy for storms in Atlantic basin at all.
ignore the trolls
Quoting 306. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just had a really bad vision
maybe our lack of rain now
will get made up for in winter
as snow
see I am already into
the winter forecast model run now 1050 hrs out
Places in the Inland Northeast like Rochester, NY (av July High 81) has already had 13 Days above 90 this summer and averages 9 all summer, and at least 4 in the next 7 days are predicted.
If the heat continues as predicted there is going to be a lot more precipitable water than usual in the Northeast between the Great Lakes and the Atlantic ocean being warmer than average. With the La Nina Developing, there may be lots of snow in the Northeast, although probably away from the intimidate coast because the ocean is so warm.
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 4 hHace 4 horas
The current 5 most similar SST configs are 1959,1960,1964,1998,2014. Average Atlantic ACE was 117 for these years.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (T201602)
3:00 AM JST July 24 2016
==============================
In Sea Around Minami tori-shima

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Lupit (1000 hPa) located at 28.5N 156.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===========
100 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 37.3N 158.8E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Sea Far East Of Japan
48 HRS: 45.0N 154.4E - Extratropical Low in Kuril waters
325. vis0
Quoting 145. BaltimoreBrian:

Borrowed from Christopher Burt's blog (weatherhistorian)

P.S. A low temperature of 41.6°C (106.9°F) was measured at Hoseyniyeh, Iran for the night of July 21-22. This appears to be the second-warmest low temperature ever reliably recorded on earth (The warmest low temperature was 41.7°C or 107.0°F on July 12, 2012 at Death Valley. (lows as high as 110°F recorded at Death Valley in August 1924 are dubious)
Few months ago some comment made it seem as if just 8 degrees warmer is no big deal, as the average was not a big deal, it was 78f to 86F and a member posted it would be nicer if it where 8 degrees warmer all the time and how GW helps achieve that. as if Gw was a plus.

THINK, nature is not going to oblige to mankind's wish/needs as in cooler summers warmer winters - its warmer "across the board".

That "across the board" includes summer, when it's usually in the low 80sF in the USofA NE.

We just rose 8 degrees 84F to 90-92F for a week and people are melting.

Imagine in 15 -25 years when this is the "norm" NOT for a week but for a month. 

related note::
Just create 2 bug zapping window screens from 2 extra bug zapping paddles - solar cell powered, on for ~5 hrs - (ones i posted a few weeks ago - had to be removed as off topic) , last night i heard 24 zaps/sparks before i went to sleep and i go to sleep in seconds.

Washi115 will one day be visiting keeperofthegates lushes tropical paradise located in in southern Canada, aloha Keeps...AYE!.  (said in a Nu Yourican accent)
Quoting 323. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan %u200F@TropicalTidbits 4 hHace 4 horas
The current 5 most similar SST configs are 1959,1960,1964,1998,2014. Average Atlantic ACE was 117 for these years.



1959 - 14 storms - 1 in May, 2 in June, 2 in July, 3 in August, 4 in September, 2 in October.
1960 - 8 storms - 1 in June, 2 in July, 2 in August, 3 in September.
1964 - 12 storms - 1 in June, 1 in July, 4 in August, 4 in September, 1 in October, 1 in November.
1998 - 14 storms - 1 in July, 4 in August, 7 in September, 2 in October, 1 in November.
2014 - 8 storms - 1 in June, 2 in August, 2 in September, 3 in October.

A major hurricane made landfall in the US in all of these years with the exception of 2014.

Correction: 1998 did not, but had 2 systems (Bonnie and Georges) hit the US while being very close to major hurricane status.
Very heavy progressive thunderstorm lines moving through Iowa into Wisconsin. Could be quite a bit of flooding.

Darby looking great. Hawaii better watch out for this. Looks like it's intensifying a little.
Quoting 327. ProPoly:

Very heavy progressive thunderstorm lines moving through Iowa into Wisconsin. Could be quite a bit of flooding.


Link
being watched for severe weather potential for portions of eastern Iowa, far southwestern Wisconsin, and far northwestern Illinois.

PORTIONS OF ERN IA...FAR SWRN WI...FAR NWRN IL


"Frank" is around Socorro Island region now.
first pot of sweet corn of the season on the side burner of bbq is on
It's always nice seeing the 65DBZ pixels on radar. Even though this is in a degraded state.

Quoting 330. HadesGodWyvern:



"Frank" is around Socorro Island region now.
that's mostly mex military outpost
Quoting 334. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




I'm guessing that's a map of Socorro island?
336. JRRP7
Quoting 328. HurricaneAndre:


Darby looking great. Hawaii better watch out for this. Looks like it's intensifying a little.


Quoting 337. hydrus:

Water temps look a bit warmer near the big island..


TS Darby...

Quoting 299. BahaHurican:

Children, children ....

do stop the wrangling. Each of you has made your point. Now it's up to the ATL to "do its do". And I'm dividing the baby this way:

1) the GFS has been pretty consistent in showing a TWave between the 26th and 31st of this month developing into a low level TS in the eastern and central ATL, after which it fizzles out. Given the consistency in the EPac, I'd say there's a high chance of us seeing SOMEthing out there next week. Some super-duper long lived major? .... not so much.

2) the chances of the EPac continues as long as we don't see anything develop in the ATL, for the simple reason that the undeveloped ATL Twaves will continue to move into the currently highly favorable conditions in the EPac ... where they have few impediments to cyclogenesis. We may see a hiatus BECAUSE that wave next week may develop. If it doesn't, well... we won't.

On the matter of NHC ... we are still, what 3 - 4 days away from the parent AEW's arrival at the WAfrican coast. Given that even speedy development there has few possibilities for impact, why would NHC put out a notice before then? With storms like Bertha they had strong model support and a pre-existing low pressure system. This system doesn't currently warrant that kind of attention.
ITCZ moves North of 10 degrees, the EPAC will slow down or stop producing storms all together, and activity in the Atlantic will pick up. Give it time all you negative Nancy's.
Tropical Storm Darby is now down to 40 knots. (should continue to slowly weaken)

TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052016
2100 UTC SAT JUL 23 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI
AND KAHOOLAWE
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. IN THIS CASE...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT ON THE BIG ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DARBY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 154.8W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.

34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 154.8W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 154.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.4N 156.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.2N 157.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.3N 158.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.5N 160.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.4N 163.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 28.7N 165.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 33.0N 167.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 154.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
Quoting 336. JRRP7:



Activity looks like it'll pick up in August (as it usually does) with all the Atlantic in the Favorable MJO phase the only question now is will SAL be a big limiting factor for potential development.
Quoting 340. NativeSun:

ITCZ moves North of 10 degrees, the EPAC will slow down or stop producing storms all together, and activity in the Atlantic will pick up. Give it time all you negative Nancy's.

Agreed. I feel like the EPac will be much less active in the second half of the season, due to the oncoming La Niña. I'm getting tired of the "this Atlantic season is a bust" comments, just a few weeks ago several users said the Atlantic would have a hyperactive season and the Pacific season would be record low. The CFS shows mostly upward motion in August, sinking motion in September and a neutral setup in October I think. Remember, this season was not expected to be hyperactive, it was expected to be near to slightly above normal for both the Atlantic and EPac.
Quoting 340. NativeSun:

ITCZ moves North of 10 degrees, the EPAC will slow down or stop producing storms all together, and activity in the Atlantic will pick up. Give it time all you negative Nancy's.
'As what I'm sayin' ....
Doesn't anybody else find it strange the ITCZ is still down near Suriname????

Quoting 347. Skyepony:


Thanks for posting the eye-shots, Skye.... I've really been enjoying them.
:o)
103°F / 77°F dew point, heat index 120°F. Yuck. It's not quite that bad at the official station. But it's still bad.
GFS still predicting big hurricane in GOM in 2 weeks:







Link
oddspeed that run is from 06Z 21 July.
Quoting 345. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



That is a nice wave, pretty sure that is the one that GFS develops into TS Earl next Thursday.
353. Tcwx2
#1 problem: That's the 06z run from Thursday.
#2 problem: That isn't the operational GFS, that one of it's 20 ensembles.
Not trying to make fun of you just trying to keep the site as accurate as possible.
Quoting 350. oddspeed:

GFS still predicting big hurricane in GOM in 2 weeks:







Link
354. Tcwx2

May not close it up this time.
Spoiler alert...Does not develop the wave because the one out n front steals the energy.Cheers.
Quoting 306. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just had a really bad vision
maybe our lack of rain now
will get made up for in winter
as snow
see I am already into
the winter forecast model run now 1050 hrs out


Hah!~

But actually, I was wondering... if there are not a few 'canes to draw off all the record Atlantic and Gulf water heat this season, wouldn't that just be sitting there waiting to fuel some whopper 93-like winter storms?

Not that it seems like the rest of the season will be storm free, mind you. But the lack of activity seems to have left a bunch of weather-heads with a surfeit of disappointed adrenaline, resulting in something of a drama-cane this afternoon.

So for all of you itching for drama, the following link will take you to a book by a fellow that tells of his rain-making ability, (apparently fairly well-documented, but I haven't tried to establish the veracity of the docs), and this link actually takes you to the final chapter where he tells about how he does it. It may be a bit over the top for some, but what the heck? An essential rule of science is that when someone claims a find, others need to attempt to replicate it before making any (genuinely scientific) pronouncements. And the act of replication is something better to do, at any rate, then all that fussing and fuming, of which I looked at only a tiny portion.

Link
Quoting 353. Tcwx2:

#1 problem: That's the 06z run from Thursday.
#2 problem: That isn't the operational GFS, that one of it's 20 ensembles.
Not trying to make fun of you just trying to keep the site as accurate as possible.


I was about to say, "come on that's not even a current model run."
Quoting 351. BaltimoreBrian:

oddspeed that run is from 06Z 21 July.

And that's one ensemble run, not the operational model.

Edit: Whoops, should have refreshed before posting. Already been addressed.

The 18z GFS dropped development of the wave. We're not gonna see consistency until the wave is better sampled farther west.
OT:

Great Weather Porn:

"Eerie iridescent cloud appears over Santiago de Chile at sunset"

Link
18z GFS not only dropped development, but also showed a much less vigorous wave. Maybe it'll swing back, but I'd highly favor the less aggressive scenario at this point. Usually this is around the time window where the GFS will drop a CV storm if it hasn't picked up support from other models. It's not always wrong when it shows them; in some cases, it'll pick them up first and right around this time window the other models will figure it out. But that's less common.
Quoting 360. MAweatherboy1:

18z GFS not only dropped development, but also showed a much less vigorous wave. Maybe it'll swing back, but I'd highly favor the less aggressive scenario at this point. Usually this is around the time window where the GFS will drop a CV storm if it hasn't picked up support from other models. It's not always wrong when it shows them; in some cases, it'll pick them up first and right around this time window the other models will figure it out. But that's less common.

What other models are we waiting for? The CMC, which could be out-forecast by Donald Trump, or the ECMWF, which is notoriously bad with short-lived MDR tropical storms?
The high mountains of the Big Island are really doing a number on Darby's circulation.


Quoting 361. TropicalAnalystwx13:


What other models are we waiting for? The CMC, which could be out-forecast by Donald Trump, or the ECMWF, which is notoriously bad with short-lived MDR tropical storms?


The thing is, the GFS has consistently shown a system developing. It drops it for one run and that's it? Bet it is back on the 00Z
Quoting 297. birdsrock2016:



Here is my 7 day forecast PEd:



They said a 60% chance for rain and we got none. We are entering drought stage on the East coast of florida once again.
Is it hot on your side ? I heard that there is a brutal heatwave on it's way for much of the US.


103.5 yesterday 101.7 today, down to 99.9 now.....
Quoting 361. TropicalAnalystwx13:


What other models are we waiting for? The CMC, which could be out-forecast by Donald Trump, or the ECMWF, which is notoriously bad with short-lived MDR tropical storms?

So you think it will develop? I'd certainly have higher confidence if the CMC or ECMWF were on board, or at least showed a hint of development; sure they have weaknesses, but I wouldn't say they add no value, at least not the ECMWF. GFS misses more than it hits in these situations, in terms of false alarms versus actual storms.
Quoting 365. MAweatherboy1:


So you think it will develop? I'd certainly have higher confidence if the CMC or ECMWF were on board, or at least showed a hint of development; sure they have weaknesses, but I wouldn't say they add no value, at least not the ECMWF. GFS misses more than it hits in these situations, in terms of false alarms versus actual storms.


Id say the GFS is the best model when it comes to development out in the Atlantic and can be very good in the long range. Add to that, it has been mostly consistent with development along with the Euro not being all that good with cyclogenesis in general and it can be believed that we have a decent shot of seeing Earl from this wave.

It is a wait and see game though
Quoting 362. Sfloridacat5:

The high mountains of the Big Island are really doing a number on Darby's circulation.



That may be, but also remember the high mountains blind the radar on that side, so the NW half of the storm is not visible to the radar.
It's a bust.
Quoting 365. MAweatherboy1:


So you think it will develop? I'd certainly have higher confidence if the CMC or ECMWF were on board, or at least showed a hint of development; sure they have weaknesses, but I wouldn't say they add no value, at least not the ECMWF. GFS misses more than it hits in these situations, in terms of false alarms versus actual storms.

I think from an intraseasonal standpoint, with a passing CCKW and the MJO centered in the Indian Ocean, the setup is classic for development. I can't say for sure until the wave actually establishes itself over Africa. Systems like Grace 2015, Dorian/Erin 2013 come to mind though.
A Timeline for those in doubt. 2012 Season. Third most active season along with 2011.


Now look at July. Take a long look. Absorb the July period on this timeline into your brain. Burn it in if you have to.


Quoting 369. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I think from an intraseasonal standpoint, with a passing CCKW and the MJO centered in the Indian Ocean, the setup is classic for development. I can't say for sure until the wave actually establishes itself over Africa. Systems like Grace 2015, Dorian/Erin 2013 come to mind though.

We'll see, appreciate your thoughts and agree on the MJO/CCKW. I think we're a bit early and dry air probably wins out this time, but that won't last forever. FWIW, the modeled environment for the wave a couple days behind that one looks a little more favorable to me, and the ECMWF models that one fairly vigorously. This is probably just the typical transition to a more conducive pattern; lots of struggling waves to start. SSTs still warming out there as well.




Local showers have brought more rain than tropical waves so far. Go figure...
Quoting 368. CaribBoy:

It's a bust.
A Dolly Parton size bust?
374. Tcwx2
Lol, love the wording.
Quoting 370. PancakeState:

A Timeline for those in doubt. 2012 Season. Third most active season along with 2011.


Now look at July. Take a long look. Absorb the July period on this timeline into your brain. Burn it in if you have to.



JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 355. washingtonian115:

Spoiler alert...Does not develop the wave because the one out n front steals the energy.Cheers.
But one will develop regardless, the energy will go somewhere, and yes the storms will come, maybe a cat 4 or 5 for the DC area, or Northeast this year. The waters are warming up nicely now, at least down here most of the buildings will stand up to stronger storms, and we will eventually get ours down here, just a question of when this year. The season is just about ready to get going, so when the big one hits, good luck to you, and believe me they will come.
377. phear
Darby, update. Lots of Blue skies, clouds forming and disappearing and gusty NE wind picked up here on west coastal lee side of Mauna Loa/Mauna Kea 2 hrs ago, similar to strong trade winds.
Storm center almost in Trop depression mode (45mph).
Difficult to find estimated landfall time, looks like next few hours.
Forecast is still for 10in or rain between tonight, tomorrow and sun night., mostly from convective incidents (thunderstorms). We'll see.
Unusual to have direct hit on the island chain. Difficult to assess the potential for big trouble vs minor.
Quoting 362. Sfloridacat5:

The high mountains of the Big Island are really doing a number on Darby's circulation.



That's what happens when you try to run across a couple of 13000+ foot volcanoes, the only ones for 1000+ miles in any direction .... lol ...