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Tropical Storm Warnings for South Carolina as Tropical Depression Two Forms

By: Jeff Masters 9:39 PM GMT on May 27, 2016

Tropical Storm Warnings are flying for the coast of South Carolina as newly-formed Tropical Depression Two moves west-northwest at 12 mph towards the Southeast U.S. coast. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found a closed circulation and top sustained winds of 35 mph in a small region near the storm's center on Friday afternoon, leading NHC to start issuing advisories on the Atlantic's second tropical cyclone of the year. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near TD 2's center were about 25 - 26°C (77 - 79°F), which are only marginally warm enough to support a tropical storm. Wind shear on Friday afternoon was in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. A large area of dry continental air lay to the west of TD 2, and this dry air was interfering with development. Satellite loops on Friday afternoon showed that TD 2 had only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that had increased in areal coverage only slightly since Friday morning.


Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite on Friday afternoon, May 27, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

A heavy rain threat for the Southeast U.S. coast
On Friday night and Saturday, TD 2 will be traversing waters of 25 - 26°C (77 - 79°F), and the 18Z (2 pm EDT) Friday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. These conditions are barely favorable enough to allow slow development of TD 2 into a 45-mph Tropical Storm Bonnie. There is dry air to the west of the storm that will interfere with development, as well. TD 2 may get a small boost when it crosses the axis of the warm Gulf Stream current on Saturday afternoon, when SSTs will be 27 - 28°C (81 - 82°F), but a 55 mph tropical storm is probably the strongest that TD 2 can get. The NHC official forecast of a top intensity of 45 mph is a more likely scenario. In their 5 pm EDT Friday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave Charleston, South Carolina the highest odds of any city on the coast of seeing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph: 48%.

Heavy rain is the main concern from TD 2, and heavy rains should reach the coasts of South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina on Saturday afternoon or evening. In their Friday afternoon (12Z) runs, our two top two models for forecasting tropical cyclone tracks--the American GFS model and the European ECMWF model--showed TD 2 coming within 50 miles of the coast of South Carolina on Sunday morning. Steering currents will shift on Sunday evening, as TD 2 gets caught in the circulation associated with a trough of low pressure passing to the north. This shift will cause TD 2 to slow down as it reaches the coast of South Carolina, followed by a turn to the northeast. The center of TD 2 will likely track just inland along the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina on Monday and Tuesday, spreading heavy rains of 2 - 4" along its path. It is uncertain at this time whether or not TD 2 will be able to spread heavy rains farther north into Virginia later in the week.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

You and Mr.Henson are on a roll today Doc! We may have more tropical troubles on the way come next week.
Finnaly got internet and cell back. I'm in Burleson county,Tx right up the road from Brenham,TX. 16.46in here. Saw a funnel cloud pass right over the house at 3:30 am this morning.
I think 'Bonnie' will be just to the right of the center of the cone but still inside. And peak in the 50-55 mph range over the gulf stream, but be down to 45 at landfall. My guess, just a guess, is that it makes landfall between Georgetown and Myrtle Beach.
Thanks Doc! I just hope it gets the memo. Im in Wilmington NC. Hope all ok in SC. Charleston has some saturated ground according to some bloggers, which wont be good for holding their trees up.
Quoting 2. Tex8492:

Finnaly got internet and cell back. I'm in Burleson county,Tx right up the road from Brenham,TX. 16.46in here. Saw a funnel cloud pass right over the house at 3:30 am this morning.


Probably worse than anything anybody will get from 'Bonnie'.
The Beast has laid down , for now , A clear shot yesterday -

SNPP/VIIRS
2016/147
05/26/2016
19:55 UTC

Fort McMurray Wildfire, Alberta


Link
Wow, this is getting interesting. Thanks for the non stop updates.
A view at 2130 GMT :

Congratulations to the insurance companies for saving money on this named no nothing storm.
Anyone have long range models? If you do, are they saying that another disturbance will come after this one and possibly aim for Florida?
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Quoting 8. eyeofbetsy:

Congratulations to the insurance companies for saving money on this named no nothing storm.


There are people in Charleston worried about trees coming down on their homes, so please dont start this and thank you in advance.
Quoting 9. birdsrock2016:

Anyone have long range models? If you do, are they saying that another disturbance will come after this one and possibly aim for Florida?
Predicted South Carolina landfall, here in North Carolina people are buying bread and milk like a snow storm is moving in. I don't want my lawn chairs knocked over so I am trying to get into board up mode as well. The panic is real folks...completely unneeded panic but still panic. Cane's comin!
Quoting 11. K8eCane:



There are people in Charleston worried about trees coming down on their homes, so please dont start this and thank you in advance.


And the people of Charlestons deductible just went from about $750 to $3000 because they named this big thunderstorm.
Quoting 13. CloudyWithAChance:

Predicted South Carolina landfall, here in North Carolina people are buying bread and milk like a snow storm is moving in. I don't want my lawn chairs knocked over so I am trying to get into board up mode as well. The panic is real folks...completely unneeded panic but still panic. Cane's comin!



Im in NC and thats not happening here. Things are normal, as they should be and will HOPEFULLY stay that way. Sorry if there are problems at your NC location.
Quoting 14. eyeofbetsy:


And the people of Charlestons deductible just went from about $750 to $3000 because they named this big thunderstorm.


Oh No! Now thats wrong....
Quoting 12. Camerooski:




12Z GFS has a system affecting the west coast of Florida at 276 hours. But that will most likely disapppear just like the system that was on the 00Z GFS.

Have to see if the west coast of Florida system is still there on the 18Z that's currently coming out.

Wow, when blogs fly! I just posted this in the previous blog - kinda redundant now but nice visual on the near magical 26 C along track. : )



Slater Probabilistic Ice Extent (SPIE)

This is one of the best performing models in the Sea Ice Outlook at the Sea Ice Prediction Network the last few years. The estimated probabilities is based upon the model prediction, not on the actual observations.
Not looking good.
LOL , people were panicking in south Florida when Erika formed last year in the Carribbean, which never hit us.They were buying water and non-perishable items like crazy. I wonder how long it would take to evacuate Florida if a real hurricane were to strike? Our population has grown by 2.5 million since Wilma struck in 2005 and there are some people who have never been through a hurricane and aren't prepared for those types of events.
I told you people were going to come on here with conspiracy theories and blame the NHC one way or another :)

hurricane23 is lurking.Come on out!
Quoting 21. washingtonian115:

I told you people were going to come on here with conspiracy theories and blame the NHC one way or another :)


Agreed but the insurance companies get away with too much IMO
Quoting 11. K8eCane:



There are people in Charleston worried about trees coming down on their homes, so please dont start this and thank you in advance.


Currently there's a 5-10% chance of 50 Knot winds affecting the area. There is a 0% chance of hurricane force winds.
That could change but that's what the NHC was forecasting as of 2pm for the storm over the next 5 days.
Quoting 21. washingtonian115:

I told you people were going to come on here with conspiracy theories and blame the NHC one way or another :)


Washi, you were right. Again. :) (stop doing that, the blog can't take it)
Quoting 23. Sfloridacat5:



Currently there's a 5-10% chance of 50 Knot winds affecting the area. There is a 0% chance of hurricane force winds.
That could change but that's what the NHC was forecasting as of 2pm for the storm over the next 5 days.


My point was the astronomical rainfall which these systems can produce which is anxiety provoking if you already have wet ground and tall trees. Dont need a lot of wind
I personally hate these situations because the critters get squirrely and the excess rainfall runs the snakes out of their snake holes. I have snake phobia. But thats my story lol
Quoting 14. eyeofbetsy:


And the people of Charlestons deductible just went from about $750 to $3000 because they named this big thunderstorm.


Put the blame on the insurance company - not on the NHC.
- Unsettled weather for Europe and further afield - Met Office UK.
"Meanwhile in the South China Sea a tropical disturbance is set to bring heavy rain and some flooding to parts of Guangdong province of China. The disturbance is unlikely to have time to become a tropical storm before it makes landfall west of Hong Kong." May 27.
- Weather warning issued as downpours head here with "dangerous" storms facing Alps holidaymakers - Swindon Adv. UK.
"Conditions seemed primed for the development of severe thunderstorms, capable of producing very frequent lightning, large hail (perhaps golf ball sized or larger), intense rainfall capable of flash flooding, strong and damaging winds and perhaps even a tornado. These nasty storms are most likely across south-eastern France, the Alps and northern Italy." May 27.
...What? More of it ? Already had one confirmed tornado in Central France today, lots of downed trees and very nice supercells (see my blog). But the Alps weren't impacted at all. That could change apparently.
The perimeter's quiet. A little too quiet. O-o
Hi, all! Back for the season. Hope everyone had a great winter.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
526 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL WICHITA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 526 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF MODOC...AND IS NEARLY
STATIONARY.


HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARIENTHAL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN
A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3850 10135 3860 10126 3855 10113 3851 10113
3844 10118
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 116DEG 4KT 3849 10119

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.00IN
YO!!! Rxse7en!!!

My friend from back when!!
Quoting 21. washingtonian115:

I told you people were going to come on here with conspiracy theories and blame the NHC one way or another :)

hurricane23 is lurking.Come on out!
Hhahaa most of the time you are right on this issue Washi. Do you think your area have a high probability of being affect this hurricane season compare to others?
Quoting 27. daddyjames:



Put the blame on the insurance company - not on the NHC.


I absolutely blame the insurance companies. The NHC is just doing what it does. Land falling HURRICANES maybe. Now you have the weather channel naming winter storms and even though they decided not to adjust the deductibles for those named storms at this time it's something they can decide to do in the future.
Tomorrow will be the day. We'll have to see what kind of strengthening the system gets as it crosses the Gulf Stream. The system should then weaken some as it approaches the coast and has to deal with water temperatures in the mid 70s.

So far most of the models are not strengthening the system much. Only the HWRF brings the system to Tropical Storm strength.
Quoting 14. eyeofbetsy:


And the people of Charlestons deductible just went from about $750 to $3000 because they named this big thunderstorm.


You'll want to read up matter , Start here -

Meteorologists are seeing global warming's effect on the weather

My company, AerisWeather, tracks global weather for Fortune 500 companies trying to optimize supply chains, increase profitability, secure facilities, and ensure the safety of their employees and customers. It’s my 4th weather-technology company. Our team is constantly analyzing patterns, providing as much lead-time of impending weather extremes as possible. As a serial entrepreneur I respond to data, facts and evidence. If I spin the data and only see what I want to see, I go out of business. I lay off good people. I can’t afford to look away when data makes me uncomfortable.

I was initially skeptical of man-made climate change, but by the late 1990s I was witnessing the apparent symptoms of a warming climate. They were showing up on my weather map with greater frequency and ferocity. I didn’t set out to talk about climate volatility and weather disruption, but by the turn of the 21st century this warming seemed to be flavoring much of the weather I was tracking, turning up the volume of extremes, loading the dice for weather weirding. Multiple strands of data confirm Earth has a low-grade fever, a warming trend that transcends periodic heat released from El Niño.


Link
LOL everytime you blink there's a new blog up. Tropical Depression Two is slowly getting more organized.
Gotta give credit where credit is due. Doesn't mean this will be true for every storm, but the GFS did a decent job of predicting something would be happening this weekend. The 18z run from Friday, May 20th
Several following runs have a storm present, but not necessarily in all runs.

Quoting 14. eyeofbetsy:

Then read this -

Business of Disaster | FRONTLINE | PBS

Link
Quoting 37. Tornado6042008X:

LOL everytime you blink there's a new blog up. Tropical Depression Two is slowly getting more organized.


Yeah, I watched 3 new blogs pop up while checking in today.
Does anyone think we will have Bonnie at 8pm?
Quoting 5. weathergirl2001:



Probably worse than anything anybody will get from 'Bonnie'.

TEXAS--We always have to go one better. It's a way of keeping up our reputation.
Quoting 41. Tokenfreak:

Does anyone think we will have Bonnie at 8pm?


No. Probably not until tomorrow.
Quoting 34. eyeofbetsy:



I absolutely blame the insurance companies. The NHC is just doing what it does. Land falling HURRICANES maybe. Now you have the weather channel naming winter storms and even though they decided not to adjust the deductibles for those named storms at this time it's something they can decide to do in the future.


Ah, your original statement was misinterpreted. Thought you were laying blame on the NHC. Yes, insurance companies know that once a storm gets named, well their risk (depending upon where you live) goes up.


Quoting 14. eyeofbetsy:

Hail damage is the the number one payout of the US insurance industry. They don't payout over floods, all of us do. That's Tax payer money in a flood. They just contract the work to manage it. They made over $400 million dollars off Sandy. The current flood insurance pool is over $20 Billion in the hole.
Quoting 18. VibrantPlanet:

Wow, when blogs fly! I just posted this in the previous blog - kinda redundant now but nice visual on the near magical 26 C along track. : )

That graphic is cool! Did you make it?
Quoting 43. nash36:



No. Probably not until tomorrow.
I think 5 am.
Quoting 46. weathergirl2001:

That graphic is cool! Did you make it?

Yup, thank you it's a mashup of nullschool and wunderground map, via photoshop.
And.....

The blog died. I guess TD's aren't sexy enough.

*sigh*
Quoting 51. nash36:

And.....

The blog died. I guess TD's aren't sexy enough.

*sigh*
We should enjoy this quiet because if the GFS is any where near correct about the next storm (showing it going to Florida) we'll be having multple post every minute.
Quoting 51. nash36:

And.....

The blog died. I guess TD's aren't sexy enough.

*sigh*


Yeah, once it becomes Bonnie it will probably get more active...
Storm couldn't wait until at least June 1, could it... Yeah, I know it's the second one this year... But still.
Quoting 53. washingtonian115:

We should enjoy this quite because if the GFS is any where near correct about the next storm (showing it going to Florida) we'll be having multple post every minute.


I know, because the world revolves around FL as it pertains to the tropics. *snark*
The minisia of the tick tock here needs help.

You hurricane hounds . Need to take a break.

Your writing gibberish . A Lot of gibberish.
Trolls are out...
Quoting 59. Gearsts:

Trolls are out...

Crap in one hand, wish in the other.
I was doing fine till beell came along....
From the previous three blogs ")



OMG , after "Bonnie" if TD 2 does get named, Florida could beb next in line for a direct hit soon , according to the GFS models
Quoting 63. aquak9:

I was doing fine till beell came along....
he needs another rope for the other side for backend when it comes in
Quoting 66. birdsrock2016:

OMG , after "Bonnie" if TD 2 does get named, Florida could beb next in line for a direct hit soon , according to the GFS models
just calm down we know nothing yet regarding if or when anyone gets hit except for 02L
Quoting 52. hydrus:


slow very slow which is good dry air trying to tuck in under it as well
what would ya be like if by November we were at 29 for the season
Quoting 70. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

what would ya be like if by November we were at 29 for the season


Incredulous. Also my grades would probably be lacking in quality.
Quoting 43. nash36:



No. Probably not until tomorrow.
I'm thinking that if they crown this very sorry (maybe not even) looking TD "Bonnie" it'll be to verify their forecast.
Quoting 51. nash36:

And.....

The blog died. I guess TD's aren't sexy enough.

*sigh*


Holiday weekend my friend, and the Low that is going to stall Bonnie and eventually push her away from you is coming from us here in the Plains. We get a break, and can go have some fun without having to look up at the sky. . .
Quoting 53. washingtonian115:

We should enjoy this quiet because if the GFS is any where near correct about the next storm (showing it going to Florida) we'll be having multple post every minute.

OMG, WTF...FLORIDA? FLORIDA? When, how, nooooooooo! Ok, was that enough panic? LOL
02L TD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 28.5N 74.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 29.5N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 30.7N 78.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 32.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 32.8N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 33.6N 78.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 31/1800Z 34.0N 77.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z 34.7N 75.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

"SOURCE NHC
Quoting 62. beell:




Amazing, Texans are too lazy to take their cars out for a spin? Tying it up in the front yard like that . . . that is inhumane treatment of a perfectly good automobile.
Quoting 69. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

slow very slow which is good dry air trying to tuck in under it as well


That blob of moisture appears as if it is trying to pinch Florida off from the US
Quoting 71. Astrometeor:


Incredulous. Also my grades would probably be lacking in quality.

You and about fifteen other ones still in high school...and one in particular who's till in JUNIOR high school...

(modified) Bless his heart...
Quoting 74. PensacolaDoug:

I'm thinking that if they crown this very sorry (maybe not even) looking TD "Bonnie" it'll be to verify their forecast.
could very well end up a breezy naked swirl as it comes ashore but should be some showers and breezy conditions for the immediate coast I figure
Quoting 80. aquak9:


You and about fifteen other ones still in high school...and one in particular who's till in JUNIOR high school...

(modified) Bless his heart...


Is that the Southern version of "bless his heart" - hmmm . . . . . we know what that really means.
Quoting 74. PensacolaDoug:

I'm thinking that if they crown this very sorry (maybe not even) looking TD "Bonnie" it'll be to verify their forecast.


Yes, that is exactly what the NHC was thinking this afternoon. I distinctly heard one of them say that they really needed to declare this storm since the season had only produced one hurricane in January. they really were hoping for two.
My wife and I are chasing TD2, we are going to Charleston on Sunday, staying overnight. I booked a suite :).
Quoting 85. MahFL:

My wife and I are chasing TD2, we are going to Charleston on Sunday, staying overnight. I booked a suite :).


Where at? WU mail me if you like.
Quoting 85. MahFL:

My wife and I are chasing TD2, we are going to Charleston on Sunday, staying overnight. I booked a suite :).


Awesome man! I will be in Charleston as well...since I live here lol
Quoting 81. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

could very well end up a breezy naked swirl as it comes ashore but should be some showers and breezy conditions for the immediate coast I figure

It's a very small system that is dealing with very sub-marginal SST for tropical systems, also looks to have 2 ULL's to it's west moving in tandom with it. With that dry air and the small amounts of fuel from low SST to maintain convection, I'm not going to be surprise if a TD is all we end up with..
2016 is now the fourth year since 1900 to have two preseason storms.
Quoting 62. beell:




Or is this how you Texans learn how to drive? Keep them kids on a leash, then when they can drive in a circle, their good for muddin?
Quoting 36. RobertWC:



You'll want to read up matter , Start here -br
Meteorologists are seeing global warming's effect on the weather



Paul Douglas came up with a perfect description of science: "science is organized skepticism"
830 pm still feels like 90 with the heat index outside
71 inside nice and cool
tomorrow could be our first 100 degree heat index day for the season

32c humidex may approach or exceed 38c by mid afternoon till just before sunset
Quoting 81. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

could very well end up a breezy naked swirl as it comes ashore but should be some showers and breezy conditions for the immediate coast I figure


That'll piss me off. I've gone through two of those. What a disappointment. At least bring SOME squally weather.
lol nash
Quoting 33. allancalderini:

Hhahaa most of the time you are right on this issue Washi. Do you think your area have a high probability of being affect this hurricane season compare to others?
It honestly depends on the steering currents.We'll have a better idea of that once August comes this year.
In a quiet neighborhood in N Philadelphia this morning. They were putting the flags out.

Quoting 89. Famoguy1234:

2016 is now the fourth year since 1900 to have two preseason storms.

I feel like it's quite crazy that the Atlantic did not have a single May storm from 1981 until 2007. Yet, we have had a May Atlantic tropical cyclone in 6 of the last 9 seasons.
Quoting 68. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just calm down we know nothing yet regarding if or when anyone gets hit except for 02L
Florida getting what? not this year
Quoting 74. PensacolaDoug:

I'm thinking that if they crown this very sorry (maybe not even) looking TD "Bonnie" it'll be to verify their forecast.
Ah, the Gospel of Anti-Government Paranoia as Described by Joe Bastardi.

Sigh...

But I suppose it is that time of year again, so TBE. Oh, well...
florida will remain hot and dry
Quoting 97. beell:

In a quiet neighborhood in N Philadelphia this morning. They were putting the flags out.




you're still in Philly? Everyone back home ok?
Well, there was Tropical storm Ana that was given a name even though it was not that organized
Two probably won't organize until it reaches the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Ocean temperatures near 25C coupled with shear of 20-30kt is not a good combination. Yesterday, it was looking like the cyclone would be better positioned under the upper-level trough, allowing shear to fall below 10kt. Today, that doesn't appear to be the case, and a result we probably won't see anything more intense than a 40-45kt storm.
Let's all take a moment and keep this in mind:

This wasn't forecast to go bananas. In fact, it wasn't forecast to even strengthen until tomorrow. The fact that it "doesn't look good" right now shouldn't be surprising. It has two days to strengthen; not two hours. NOTHING is going to happen until it can get into warmer SST's.
Quoting 104. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Two probably won't organize until it reaches the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Ocean temperatures near 25C coupled with shear of 20-30kt is not a good combination. Yesterday, it was looking like the cyclone would be better positioned under the upper-level trough, allowing shear to fall below 10kt. Today, that doesn't appear to be the case, and a result we probably won't see anything more intense than a 40-45kt storm.


LOL!. I just typed that.
107. beell
Quoting 102. daddyjames:



you're still in Philly? Everyone back home ok?


All good, thanks. Fly home tomorrow.
:))
Quoting 99. Stormsaway:
Florida getting what? not this year

Errm.... and what was your OLD screen name?
Quoting 105. nash36:

Let's all take a moment and keep this in mind:

This wasn't forecast to go bananas. In fact, it wasn't forecast to even strengthen until tomorrow. The fact that it "doesn't look good" right now shouldn't be surprising. It has two days to strengthen; not two hours. NOTHING is going to happen until it can get into warmer SST's.
So did I screw up.
Quoting 105. nash36:

Let's all take a moment and keep this in mind:

This wasn't forecast to go bananas. In fact, it wasn't forecast to even strengthen until tomorrow. The fact that it "doesn't look good" right now shouldn't be surprising. It has two days to strengthen; not two hours. NOTHING is going to happen until it can get into warmer SST's.


Sup Nash
Sorry, boys and girls. No matter how hard I try, I cannot, in good conscience, blobicate this mess. It goes against everything I stand for. However, I promise I will do better next week.!!!

Quoting 108. aquak9:


Errm.... and what was your OLD screen name?


BWAHAHAHA .....sup aqua....
Quoting 112. tiggeriffic:


BWAHAHAHA .....sup aqua....
Hi Tig! yeah, you know me, always sniffing out the "new people" cause I am as paranoid as they come.

"New People". YesssinDEEDY.... I usually got most of'm pegged by the third invest.
Quoting 111. Grothar:

Sorry, boys and girls. No matter how hard I try, I cannot, in good conscience, blobicate this mess. It goes against everything I stand for. However, I promise I will do better next week.!!!


So how were landmasses like the US, North Caribbean islands, Cuba, Central America, etc. affected during the hyperactive hurricane season of 2851 BC? How many landfalls were there?
Quoting 108. aquak9:


Errm.... and what was your OLD screen name?
His name is very ironic to what he's been posting...
Quoting 113. aquak9:

Hi Tig! yeah, you know me, always sniffing out the "new people" cause I am as paranoid as they come.

"New People". YesssinDEEDY.... I usually got most of'm pegged by the third invest.


yeah....I got ya lol....with this thing getting ready to knock on my front door I am watching...more concerned with the weakened trees from the flood a few months ago mainly...got one a few doors down that lists about 25 degrees or so to the left...right over the road and towards the main transformer and power lines that feeds our little 30 house neighborhood
Quoting 106. nash36:



LOL!. I just typed that.

I saw it first.
Quoting 107. beell:



All good, thanks. Fly home tomorrow.
:))


Good, glad to hear. Safe travels and hoping the TSA line ain't too long.
I'm sorry guys that I screwed up with my forecasts lately. I've made many mistakes in my life. I'm a total screw up
TD 2 still looks like a blob, LOL
Quoting 119. HurricaneAndre:
stop beating yerself up just be ur self and go slow with storm forecasting
Quoting 120. birdsrock2016:

TD 2 still looks like a blob, LOL
it has been undeclared as a blob and a mess has been issued
What does [Mod] mean next to your user name, KEEPEROFTHEGATE?
Quoting 123. birdsrock2016:

What does [Mod] mean next to your user name, KEEPEROFTHEGATE?
i am a site moderator I have the options of removing posts or people as I see fit only if they break site rules
How do you quote people on the blog? I'm having trouble doing it.
Quoting 119. HurricaneAndre:

I'm sorry guys that I screwed up with my forecasts lately. I've made many mistakes in my life. I'm a total screw up

Don't worry, everyone makes mistakes sometimes. You learn from your mistakes.
Good evening I have been lurking for several years.
Quoting 123. birdsrock2016:

What does [Mod] mean next to your user name, KEEPEROFTHEGATE?


different people on here are "eyes" ....they make sure everything stays on topic and civil...if someone gets ugly or too off topic, they get a warning or a ban for a period of time....
The name is cool though, KEEPEROFTHEGATE. HOw did you come up with it? Just curious. I know it has nothing to do with weather, but it's rare that I see cool names like this on blogs
Quoting 125. birdsrock2016:

How do you quote people on the blog? I'm having trouble doing it.


under the post is a quote tab in blue.... click it...it automatically puts that post in the comment box... type your response under it
Quoting 130. tiggeriffic:



under the post is a quote tab in blue.... click it...it automatically puts that post in the comment box... type your response under it


Thank you,

tiggeriffic
Bob Henson @bhensonweather March 9 : "Europe was there first: Tornado analysis from 1751 (pan-Euro review by Bogdan Antonescu, U Manchester)"
Via ESSL :-D
Quoting 111. Grothar:

Sorry, boys and girls. No matter how hard I try, I cannot, in good conscience, blobicate this mess. It goes against everything I stand for. However, I promise I will do better next week.!!!




Although not a blob, it definitely is an eagle!

Hey everyone. Here we go another year . However this year I will no longer be a Florida T . My wife and I are moving to Iowa next week. Do I have to change my name to Iowa T? mabee I can spot tornados for ya all?
Quoting 119. HurricaneAndre:

I'm sorry guys that I screwed up with my forecasts lately. I've made many mistakes in my life. I'm a total screw up


Wow, I wish that is all that I have screwed up in my life! Lift your head up and carry on my friend.
Quoting 135. floridaT:

Hey everyone. Here we go another year . However this year I will no longer be a Florida T . My wife and I are moving to Iowa next week. Do I have to change my name to Iowa T? mabee I can spot tornados for ya all?



you could always add "FORMER" in front of your name lol....
Quoting 74. PensacolaDoug:

I'm thinking that if they crown this very sorry (maybe not even) looking TD "Bonnie" it'll be to verify their forecast.

last time I checked the NHC did not classify tropical cyclones on looks
From Wiki: tropical depression or tropical low is a tropical disturbance, that has a clearly defined surface circulation, which has maximum sustained winds of less than 34 kn (39 mph; 63 km/h).

Quoting 137. tiggeriffic:



you could always add "FORMER" in front of your name lol....
that would sound like im dead

Quoting 139. floridaT:


that would sound like im dead




You could say "was once a floridian" LOL

Quoting 140. birdsrock2016:



You could say "was once a floridian" LOL
or "once worried about shutters, generators, and where the hell can I get a cold beer.
Quoting 139. floridaT:


that would sound like im dead




formerly known as........
Quoting 131. birdsrock2016:



Thank you,

tiggeriffic



more than welcome :)
Quoting 138. MrTornadochase:


last time I checked the NHC did not classify tropical cyclones on looks
From Wiki: tropical depression or tropical low is a tropical disturbance, that has a clearly defined surface circulation, which has maximum sustained winds of less than 34 kn (39 mph; 63 km/h).

A storm does not always look great. We saw that with "Hurricane" Bertha in 2014, which looked more like a weak tropical storm than a hurricane.
Quoting 104. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Two probably won't organize until it reaches the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Ocean temperatures near 25C coupled with shear of 20-30kt is not a good combination. Yesterday, it was looking like the cyclone would be better positioned under the upper-level trough, allowing shear to fall below 10kt. Today, that doesn't appear to be the case, and a result we probably won't see anything more intense than a 40-45kt storm.

Kinda reminds me of Ana from last year but slightly weaker
I feel like being silly as a new season of wish casting begins (how we think). *ruffles papers hacks up lung* "So it seems we have Tropical Depression Two in freaking May!" In head -One forms in June only once out of every two years and we had a bleepin' hurricane in January- Rubs nose, "So this most nearly means like the SAT test or something we are completely screwed get not ply wood but a wall to put around your house, salt and fresh water everywhere!" - wait wait wait.... my region is based off averages since 1851 I am overdue by 15 years for a minor storm and 10 years over due for a major storm!- "EVERYONE EVACUATE NOW! We are done get the bleep out now guys it will totally become Category 7 Bonnie and crash ashore in New England".......................................... .. *someone taps shoulder* "Hey, you need to log off ur being silly again"
02L
Quoting 147. 999Ai2016:

02L

bust
Quoting 111. Grothar:

Sorry, boys and girls. No matter how hard I try, I cannot, in good conscience, blobicate this mess. It goes against everything I stand for. However, I promise I will do better next week.!!!




We will hold off the court-martial for now Gro ... take care ;>)
Quoting 141. floridaT:


or "once worried about shutters, generators, and where the hell can I get a cold beer.


Now concerned about "where is the storm cellar"?
Grothar - here are some pre-blobs to monitor for next week (over Africa) ... they look pretty good.
Best wishes.

http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/photos/world_big.j pg

Quoting 133. 999Ai2016:

Bob Henson @bhensonweather March 9 : "Europe was there first: Tornado analysis from 1751 (pan-Euro review by Bogdan Antonescu, U Manchester)"
Via ESSL :-D


What the heck?? If your going to use images that Grothar captured, at least credit the guy. Let me just preface this by saying this was not the first tornado he had ever seen. I believe he was the meteorologist for Adam and some Eve chick. He told Eve that the apple was a Cat. 5 mistake. She Just couldn't understand the reference. And the rest is history.
Quoting 144. HurricaneFan:


A storm does not always look great. We saw that with "Hurricane" Bertha in 2014, which looked more like a weak tropical storm than a hurricane.

Same with many of the storms that formed last year that looked more like open waves than tropical storms due to strong wind shear
Quoting 149. HurricaneAndre:

bust

I wouldn't call it a bust yet. Forecast still shows strengthening to 45 mph tomorrow evening. Doesn't look all that great right now but maybe the warm waters along the Gulf Stream will get this to TS status.
These should get all the Florida folks all riled up!

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach May 25 Boulder, CO
66 hurricanes have tracked thru the Atlantic since FL's last hurricane impact. Odds are ~1:500 using 1966-2005 FL/basinwide ratio (9%)

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach May 20
Florida is impacted by over twice as many hurricanes in #LaNina compared with #ElNino.
Any reporters in South Carolina tomorrow covering the rain?.
Quoting 156. HurricaneFan:


I wouldn't call it a bust yet. Forecast still shows strengthening to 45 mph tomorrow evening. Doesn't look all that great right now but maybe the warm waters along the Gulf Stream will get this to TS status.


I'd like to add the fact that it's May. We're in the pre-season. We're also coming out of an El-Nino year, so the shear will take some time to relax. Since it is May, the southern jet is still able to dive deep into the SW Atlantic, which ironically gave this system life to begin with; it is also responsible for the shear not allowing it to blossom.

Add to that the marginal SST's (month of May) and continental dry air, what do you guys calling it a "bust" expect? Did you expect this system to bomb out and become a CAT 4 hurricane? Do some research. That doesn't happen in May, period.

Quite honestly, this could be the warning shot across the nations' bow for the upcoming season. It also may not be. No one knows. All we know is that we have a weak TD, which may become a weak TS if it can take advantage of the narrow tongue of warmer waters tomorrow, before it hits the colder shelf waters on the coast.

Again....it's May.
Lol @ the NAM coming out now. It shows TD2 approaching the coast and then backing away south, then just sitting there offshore. Still stationary at 75 hours.
Quoting 158. MeteorologistTV:

Any reporters in South Carolina tomorrow covering the rain?.


Please....no one Jim Cantore.... snicker snicker snort
Quoting 160. SavannahStorm:

Lol @ the NAM coming out now. It shows TD2 approaching the coast and then backing away south, then just sitting there offshore. Still stationary at 63 hours.


It will be caught between two ridges; one to the west and one to the east. If it is as weak as it is now, that possibility is not out of the question. It will be steered in the low levels, so it may not feel the shortwave.
ok when could we see TD 3 what model show
Quoting 161. tiggeriffic:



Please....no one Jim Cantore.... snicker snicker snort



He's not coming.
Quoting 162. nash36:



It will be caught between two ridges; one to the west and one to the east. If it is as weak as it is now, that possibility is not out of the question. It will be steered in the low levels, so it may not feel the shortwave.


Yep. At the end of the run at 84 hours it is completely trapped with high pressure to the east, north, and west.
Quoting 164. nash36:



He's not coming.


it was a joke nash....lol
Quoting 166. tiggeriffic:



it was a joke nash....lol
Quoting 166. tiggeriffic:



it was a joke nash....lol


I know:-) Heck, even I thought he'd be here. He's been cooped up in the studio for too long. I figured he'd come out for a duck fart, just to get out. LOL!
Quoting 167. nash36:



I know:-) Heck, even I thought he'd be here. He's been cooped up in the studio for too long. I figured he'd come out for a duck fart, just to get out. LOL!


OMGoodness....I haven't heard duck fart in SOOOOOOO LONG.....almost spit my coffee at the puter lol
Quoting 159. nash36:



I'd like to add the fact that it's May. We're in the pre-season. We're also coming out of an El-Nino year, so the shear will take some time to relax. Since it is May, the southern jet is still able to dive deep into the SW Atlantic, which ironically gave this system life to begin with; it is also responsible for the shear not allowing it to blossom.

Add to that the marginal SST's (month of May) and continental dry air, what do you guys calling it a "bust" expect? Did you expect this system to bomb out and become a CAT 4 hurricane? Do some research. That doesn't happen in May, period.

Quite honestly, this could be the warning shot across the nations' bow for the upcoming season. It also may not be. No one knows. All we know is that we have a weak TD, which may become a weak TS if it can take advantage of the narrow tongue of warmer waters tomorrow, before it hits the colder shelf waters on the coast.

Again....it's May.
But Ana did it, why can't 02L do it.
Quoting 169. HurricaneAndre:

But Ana did it, why can't 02L do it.


ana started WAY out in the Atlantic for one...not 400 miles off shore...2014...and all it takes is a couple degrees on water temps...ana of 2015 was closer to florida tip...warmer water...also would depend on how much rain came from the west each year not allowing water to warm up...lots of things
Quoting 160. SavannahStorm:

Lol @ the NAM coming out now. It shows TD2 approaching the coast and then backing away south, then just sitting there offshore. Still stationary at 75 hours.


Not completely out of the question. Reaches the coast and then hovers. OTS if it makes it onshore and makes it further north. Looks so bad right now. We all know the difference a day can make. "Can" being the key word in that sentence. Models in great consensus, but close to the coast lot of variables come into play. Not to mention some nice continental dry air to stop the Gulf Stream from giving this the juice.
Texas is drowning and I am burning.... Large fire outside of Anchorage - not too far from homes. Fire Department is throwing a lot of resources at it so hopefully it gets under control fast. Amazing how fast it spread.
Quoting 169. HurricaneAndre:

But Ana did it, why can't 02L do it.


The simple answer is if each storm did exactly the same thing, under the same (or similar conditions) as previous storms, then weather would be a static phenomenon. It isn't.

Some storms are able to take advantage of their environment. Some healthy storms, under the same ripe environment fizzle out, and leave everyone questioning why.

We've seen countless examples (Lexion Avila can attest to this) of storms that had NO BUSINESS even firing one thunderstorm in the face of 50kts of shear, let alone BLOSSOM into a hurricane; but they did! To borrow a line from TWC; "It's Amazing Out There."

The bottom line is, Mother Nature is going to wow us, humble us and drive us nuts. We can't control it; most of the time, we truly cannot fully understand it.

We're just along for the ride, and what a fun ride it is.
Quoting 156. HurricaneFan:


I wouldn't call it a bust yet. Forecast still shows strengthening to 45 mph tomorrow evening. Doesn't look all that great right now but maybe the warm waters along the Gulf Stream will get this to TS status.


I think the Carolinas had worse storms this winter. Big threat if it stalls (needs way more convection though).
Quoting 169. HurricaneAndre:

But Ana did it, why can't 02L do it.


Ana was a 40mph TS
Quoting 170. tiggeriffic:



ana started WAY out in the Atlantic for one...not 400 miles off shore...2014...and all it takes is a couple degrees on water temps...ana of 2015 was closer to florida tip...warmer water...also would depend on how much rain came from the west each year not allowing water to warm up...lots of things



Ana started closer to the coast then TD 2 is

Experience: storm always curves more East at less intensity than models.
Result: No US landfall, TD all the way.
Wow, TD2 looks pretty poor at the moment...I've certainly lowered my expectations on it. Now I am wondering if it will even make it to tropical storm status...
Quoting 176. Hurricanes101:



Ana was a 40mph TS


I believe Ana was a hurricane.
Turned on the AC for the first time tonight here in the Philly burbs
Had guests for dinner and needed to counteract all the hot air LOL
Quoting 180. Bucsboltsfan:



I believe Ana was a hurricane.


He said is "was" a weak 40mph ts. At some point. :) We have no idea what and if lower shear will come over the core. Or "if" the Gulf Stream will provide 10-20 mph of strengthening. Fun early season storm.
Quoting 141. floridaT:


or "once worried about shutters, generators, and where the hell can I get a cold beer.


A true Floridian worries about tropical storms even if they have moved up to the frozen north! My name here is from a Floridian island where I spent a lot of time while growing up but I have actually not lived in Florida since 1994. I still have obsessively followed Dr. Master's blog since he was a grad student and the website was at cirrus.umich.edu. In those days, however, we all used our real names. I mostly lurk here, however.

Florida gets tornadoes, too--we just don't have storm cellars and have to hide in the bathtubs or under the kitchen table. I still remember in 9th grade riding my bike to school between thunderstorms and hearing that over lunch, a tornado 10 miles away had wiped out an elementary school cafeteria and killed four kids and a teacher...
Quoting 179. NCHurricane2009:

Wow, TD2 looks pretty poor at the moment...I've certainly lowered my expectations on it. Now I am wondering if it will even make it to tropical storm status...

it'll get stronger. It still has time.
Summer weather is here in Anchorage:



Currently the T-storm blob over east Texas looks more impressive than TD2, and is currently probably a more dangerous system to be concerned about.
188. IDTH
Quoting 187. GetReal:



Currently the T-storm blob over east Texas looks more impressive than TD2, and is currently probably a more dangerous system to be concerned about.

That "blob" over texas has barely moved. Rainfall totals must be insane in that area today.
00Z GFS, NAM, and CMC are all on board with the stall out scenario. Could be a pretty miserable 3 or 4 days at the beach from Savannah to OBX.
Quoting 183. OKsky:

I am not 100% sure, but I think TD2 might have made a cameo in this movie.


Wow that is pretty cool! Not sure myself though, moving so quick . . . the barge appears in less than a couple frames!
Quoting 186. Dakster:

Summer weather is here in Anchorage:




Made it to 80.1°F here today...
Summer's are nice up here, but I can't wait for the cold to get back.
Where is TD2?


Quoting 192. Dakster:

Summer's are nice up here, but I can't wait for the cold to get back.


My folks retired in Florida, old as dirt, but not within ten centuries of Gro, would cringe if they heard you say such a thing. And they only use to live in Indiana!
TD Two really does not look good on satellite imagery right now.

(click to enlarge graphic)
TD 2 sure is a disorganized mess. But what stands out to me is the gyre just east of Great Abaco moving slowly NW. Not 100% certain if that is a MLC or what. It's late, so my eyes may be playing tricks as well. Anyone have any ideas?
Quoting 194. DeepSeaRising:



My folks retired in Florida, old as dirt, but not within ten centuries of Gro, would cringe if they heard you say such a thing. And they only use to live in Indiana!


My Dad that still lives in Michigan would cringe too... But I like the cold... I retired to the cold from Florida.
Not sure if this has been mentioned, but I will give a thumbs up to which model, or models picked this up last week!
There were some nonbelievers, time for a little crow snack, but it did not turn out to be a ghost storm!
Hopefully, recent upgrades have helped with the future forecasts. Time will tell.
Quoting 197. Dakster:



My Dad that still lives in Michigan would cringe too... But I like the cold... I retired to the cold from Florida.


Grew up in the Carolina's, up in Wisconsin now. Hanging out in Blizzards and enjoying them to the fullest with childlike enthusiasm is a fun pastime of mine. Love the cold too. Anything above -40 is alright. After that it gets painful fast.
Quoting 193. AussieStorm:

Where is TD2?





That's a Jose level TS. Show some respect.
We will get back to you on this!


Quoting 178. tampaENG:

Experience: storm always curves more East at less intensity than models.
Result: No US landfall, TD all the way.
Quoting 200. DeepSeaRising:



That's a Jose level TS. Show some respect. And at this point your guess is as good as mine.
I grew up in Tomahawk, just north of Wausau, on Lake Nokomis. I don't miss the nights of -40 with the daytime high around -20. No wind chill adjustment! Sorry, but I like the warmth that SW FL provides.

Quoting 199. DeepSeaRising:



Grew up in the Carolina's, up in Wisconsin now. Hanging out in Blizzards and enjoying them to the fullest with childlike enthusiasm is a fun pastime of mine. Love the cold too. Anything above -40 is alright. After that it gets painful fast.
Quoting 199. DeepSeaRising:



Grew up in the Carolina's, up in Wisconsin now. Hanging out in Blizzards and enjoying them to the fullest with childlike enthusiasm is a fun pastime of mine. Love the cold too. Anything above -40 is alright. After that it gets painful fast.


Yeah, I kinda draw the line at -40F/C too...
2:00 am intermediate advisory:
Somewhere under the clouds, hiding!

Quoting 193. AussieStorm:

Where is TD2?




...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... (NHC) (*audible sigh of disappointment*)
Horrendous. Dissipation before reaching the coast is not impossible, regardless of what the models say.
Interesting... Report as of 2am from Buoy at Settlement Point, GBI. Note the ship report 109 miles SE of there reporting a SSW wind. That's S/SW of the southern tip of Abaco.

SPGF1 C 0600 26.70 -79.00 0 0 60 8 10 - - - - 29.98 -0.01 78.1 - 69.6 - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
SIPF1 O 0600 27.86 -80.45 104 312 60 13.0 - - - - - 30.00 -0.03 77.9 78.8 - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
SHIP S 0600 25.60 -77.40 109 127 200 15.0
If this low dissipates before reaching the coast, oh well... Remember it isn't even June 1 yet!
Quoting 210. Dakster:

If this low dissipates before reaching the coast, oh well... Remember it isn't even June 1 yet!


Aside from history, this storm means nothing. Garbage is still garbage.
212. MahFL
TD 2 is looking better, my wife and I are going to chase TD2, heading to Savannah later today :

Cool n wet continues for a couple days here in Acme wa. Lows have been in the mid 40's highs in the mid 50's. Radar showing some fresh snow in the mtns. No Texas sized precip totals, a mere .1 today, just over an inch for the entire month of May.
Quoting 212. MahFL:

TD 2 is looking better, my wife and I are going to chase TD2, heading to Savannah later today :




Not worth the money, dude. Just stay home.
215. MahFL
Oh, oh? Signs of life? Come on, girl. :0
217. MahFL
Quoting 216. KoritheMan:

Oh, oh? Signs of life? Come on, girl. :0


Yes, cloud tops are cooling and convection is increasing.
Well with many tweets like this
Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
For ~3 days Ecmwf ensemble has been showing a broad low in the NW Carib in the 11-15- now shows up on day 10- hmm :)
From a lot of big names including our own Levi

It's getting me in the mood
Also with our team that has been doing training from late last month all the way through this month and expected to continue next week and even through first part of June you can't really blame me
Quoting 100. Neapolitan:

Ah, the Gospel of Anti-Government Paranoia as Described by Joe Bastardi.

Sigh...

But I suppose it is that time of year again, so TBE. Oh, well...
What is yer malfunction?
000
WTNT32 KNHC 280835
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...DEPRESSION RIGHT ON TRACK BUT HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 77.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SSE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
estimated near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 77.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
decrease in forward speed is expected today and Sunday as the system
nears the coast within the warning area.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression
could become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane will investigate the depression
this morning.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later tonight or early Sunday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from eastern South Carolina through
southeastern North Carolina.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground
level is possible within the tropical storm warning area.

SURF: This system is expected to produce life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United
States coast through the weekend. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
Quoting 218. wunderkidcayman:

Well with many tweets like this
Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
For ~3 days Ecmwf ensemble has been showing a broad low in the NW Carib in the 11-15- now shows up on day 10- hmm :)
From a lot of big names including our own Levi

It's getting me in the mood
Also with our team that has been doing training from late last month all the way through this month and expected to continue next week and even through first part of June you can't really blame me


That tweet is in reference to TD02, where he tweeted about the ensemble back on May 16.


cHECK OUT THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN THE MEAN TIME !
Quoting 221. nrtiwlnvragn:



That tweet is in reference to TD02, where he tweeted about the ensemble back on May 16.


Ok but there has been tweets about W Carib system dated yesterday
Quoting 218. wunderkidcayman:

Well with many tweets like this
Eric Blake
%u200F@EricBlake12
For ~3 days Ecmwf ensemble has been showing a broad low in the NW Carib in the 11-15- now shows up on day 10- hmm :)
From a lot of big names including our own Levi

It's getting me in the mood
Also with our team that has been doing training from late last month all the way through this month and expected to continue next week and even through first part of June you can't really blame me


For once, you're right. Pattern might favor it, with a large trough likely to bottle itself up in the northern tier of the United States. Only place for ridging is down south.

Not nearly as likely as it was with TD2. Whatever ridge exists won't be nearly as strong, but it's not impossible under the forthcoming pattern.
225. ryang
What time does RECON take off this morning?
Quoting 225. ryang:

What time does RECON take off this morning?


Already on their way Google Earth
Quoting 219. PensacolaDoug:

What is yer malfunction?
Lol!!
Looks like the Bahamas has picked up a new system
To be honest it looks a lot better than TD2
Just E of SE Bahamas and N of Hispaniola

Btw RECON is entering storm (TD2)

Quoting 224. KoritheMan:



For once, you're right. Pattern might favor it, with a large trough likely to bottle itself up in the northern tier of the United States. Only place for ridging is down south.

Not nearly as likely as it was with TD2. Whatever ridge exists won't be nearly as strong, but it's not impossible under the forthcoming pattern.


Well we shall wait watch and see what happens but anyway whatever happens I'm very prepared for this season some might just say I'm over prepped for the season lol
Quoting 228. wunderkidcayman:

Looks like the Bahamas has picked up a new system
To be honest it looks a lot better than TD2
Just E of SE Bahamas and N of Hispaniola

Btw RECON is entering storm (TD2)



I said the same thing last night. We probably should watch that as well.
Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 10:25:00Z
Coordinates: 31.167N 78.683W
Acft. Static Air Press: 925.0 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 828 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1017.6 mb (30.05 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 64° at 26 kts (From the ENE at 29.9 mph)
Air Temp: 18.0°C* (64.4°F*)
Dew Pt: 17.5°C* (63.5°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 27 kts (31.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 30 kts (34.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (0.00 in/hr)
Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 10:35:00Z
Coordinates: 30.833N 78.267W
Acft. Static Air Press: 924.9 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 821 m
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 78° at 27 kts (From the ENE at 31.1 mph)
Air Temp: 18.0°C* (64.4°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 28 kts (32.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 30 kts (34.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (0.04 in/hr)
Quoting 230. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I said the same thing last night. We probably should watch that as well.


The models has indeed picked up on this and develops a weak-mod low pressure system and kicks it NE
So I'd say you can keep an eye on it and not both eyes as it's not priority at the moment TD 2 takes higher priority atm

Quoting 231. caribbeantracker01:

Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 10:25:00Z
Coordinates: 31.167N 78.683W
Acft. Static Air Press: 925.0 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 828 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1017.6 mb (30.05 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 64° at 26 kts (From the ENE at 29.9 mph)
Air Temp: 18.0°C* (64.4°F*)
Dew Pt: 17.5°C* (63.5°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 27 kts (31.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 30 kts (34.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (0.00 in/hr)


Atleast this RECON flight seems to have stronger sfc winds than last flight this plus increased convection first real sign that system is really developing TD2 might actually be a TS or becoming one now
Quoting 233. wunderkidcayman:



The models has indeed picked up on this and develops a weak-mod low pressure system and kicks it NE
So I'd say you can keep an eye on it and not both eyes as it's not priority at the moment TD 2 takes higher priority atm



Atleast this RECON flight seems to have stronger sfc winds than last flight this plus increased convection first real sign that system is really developing TD2 might actually be a TS or becoming one now


Yea should see a weak tropical storm bonnie by the end of the mission if current trends continue

With this folks, it's likely we have Bonnie.
Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 10:41:00Z
Coordinates: 30.617N 78.033W
Acft. Static Air Press: 925.3 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 807 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1016.0 mb (30.01 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 74° at 35 kts (From the ENE at 40.3 mph)
Air Temp: 18.0°C* (64.4°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 36 kts (41.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 31 kts* (35.7 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 7 mm/hr* (0.28 in/hr*)
Quoting 235. SavannahStorm:

Coming into view on radar...

.

Hello SavannahStorm. I actually thought last night we were under the Tropical Storm Warning. Once i saw "Tropical Storm Warning Is in effect for the Savannah River....", i was like, that's not me lol.
Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 10:45:00Z
Coordinates: 30.433N 77.933W
Acft. Static Air Press: 924.0 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 806 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1014.6 mb (29.96 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 107° at 35 kts (From the ESE at 40.3 mph)
Air Temp: 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Dew Pt: 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 37 kts (42.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 55 kts (63.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 43 mm/hr (1.69 in/hr)
Good Morning
Quoting 240. WxLogic:

Good Morning

Good morning. Looking like we may have Bonnie soon.
Good morning...

Quoting 241. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Good morning. Looking like we may have Bonnie soon.


Very close for sure.

The Gulf Stream should be able to give it a little boost if i goes slow enough.
Good morning. Flight level winds (only about 2,000 feet up) are now to TS force on TD 2. Some rain contaminated surface winds over TS force, but it's probably pretty close to TS status. Definitely seeing a morning increase in convection, could be DMAX. All going about as expected.

If it tucks itself under the deepest convection to the NW or pulls it towards it then it will be a whole different ball game.

Quoting 238. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Hello SavannahStorm. I actually thought last night we were under the Tropical Storm Warning. Once i saw "Tropical Storm Warning Is in effect for the Savannah River....", i was like, that's not me lol.




That may change- between radar trends and some model adjustments its looking like areas further west will see more effects than previously thought. The convection flipping to the western side of the system kinda threw a wrench in things.
It just looks as if TD2 is flying toward the coast..I guess it had another 24 hours but it's showing no signs of slowing down
Quoting 228. wunderkidcayman:

Looks like the Bahamas has picked up a new system
To be honest it looks a lot better than TD2
Just E of SE Bahamas and N of Hispaniola

Btw RECON is entering storm (TD2)




Been watching the visible surface spin on this one for two afternoons ....
While we are focused on TD #2, we may have some more tropical mischief the the south of our depression. Even some more possible mischief in the NW Caribbean/GOM in the coming weeks.
Good Morning from Charleston, SC! I was wondering if anyone here could give me an update on the timing of the worst conditions and how bad the conditions will get. I am located off the water about 20 miles north of downtown. Any help is great! Thanks!
GDFL model puts 91L into SC sometime sunday............................................
Quoting 247. JrWeathermanFL:

It just looks as if TD2 is flying toward the coast..I guess it had another 24 hours but it's showing no signs of slowing down


As of the HRRR 10Z run it has it close to the coast of Jasper county in SC by 01Z or around 8 to 9PM tonight.



Max WND of 45kts to the S and 40kts to the N and W of the center, but as you can see the main WX would be restricted to the coast given the size and intensity of TD#2 soon TS (if conditions allow).
We may get Bonnie here in just a minute...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 11:37Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Tropical Depression: Two (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 10:56:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°53'N 78°00'W (29.8833N 78.W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 796m (2,612ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the N (4°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 107° at 37kts (From the ESE at ~ 42.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the N (7°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1013mb (29.92 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 755m (2,477ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 7 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph) which was observed 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the N (7°) from the flight level center at 10:45:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
TD2 looks like it will become a TS from the reconnaissance. If a third storm forms by June 12th it will be the record earliest third storm in the Atlantic! We will see what models show.
Still TD 2 at the 8AM.

"Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical
cyclone is just below tropical storm strength. The depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm later today as it moves over the
warm waters of the Gulfstream."


Here are some of the far out tropical storm predictions.

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
8:00 AM EDT Sat May 28
Location: 30.0°N 78.0°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

Public
Advisory
#3A
800 AM EDT Aviso
Who thinks we'll see Bonnie at 11am. I do. Wonder why they didn't upgrade at 8am.
Still Tropical Depression Two. They will probably upgrade it soon though.
Quoting 259. ThatHurricane:

Still Tropical Depression Two. They will probably upgrade it soon though.
Plane finds 40Kt wind at flight level. Good shot at Bonnie at 11 AM.

040 016 001 00
looking better this morning........................................... ...............


Good morning.

NHC beginning to have doubts about the Low picking up Bonnie and moving her out anytime soon . . .
Quoting 263. daddyjames:



Good morning.

NHC beginning to have doubts about the Low picking up Bonnie and moving her out anytime soon . . .


TD 2 Kinda had a bit of a westward jog didn't it?


I'm very interested in seeing the 12z model runs. The hrrr has been picking up on the increased speed and convection and we could see tropical storm conditions on the coast as soon as this evening.


Just a train of storms
TD 2 has done much better and now I'd happily call TS Bonnie now and officially at 11am

Keep an eye on feature just E of SE Bahamas/N of Hispaniola

Keep eyes on W-NW Caribbean as well during next 5-<15 days for possible development
Quoting 265. JrWeathermanFL:



TD 2 Kinda had a bit of a westward jog didn't it?


Have not had my coffee yet, so not qualified to comment at the moment ;)
Quoting 265. JrWeathermanFL:



TD 2 Kinda had a bit of a westward jog didn't it?


Yep and in the best environmental conditions it could possibly be in
Now in 5-10kt shear and entering the Gulfstream 26° with 27° and 28° to its W and WNW
Quoting 268. wunderkidcayman:

TD 2 has done much better and now I'd happily call TS Bonnie now and officially at 11am

Keep an eye on feature just E of SE Bahamas/N of Hispaniola

Keep eyes on W-NW Caribbean as well during next 5-<15 days for possible development
Really Wunderkidcayman. We officially have Bonnie?
Quoting 270. wunderkidcayman:



Yep and in the best environmental conditions it could possibly be in
Now in 5-10kt shear and entering the Gulfstream 26° with 27° and 28° to its W and WNW




Already looks better than the last Bonnie.
Really not only that the NW Carib? Show me an upper level environment that can support robust thunderstorms first. The ones I am seeing are limited and and usually burn off by mid morning and barely get about 250. This is not a cyclone environment just isn't. Nothing doing in this region.

Quoting 271. HurricaneAndre:

Really Wunderkidcayman. We officially have Bonnie?
274. Tcwx2
TD2 really looking healthy I think we'll have Bonnie at 11.
Quoting 219. PensacolaDoug:

What is yer malfunction?
Great question! Why not ask JB himself, the increasingly self-marginalized weather guy who's convinced that every single government-funded scientist is in on some Grand Scheme To Defraud Everyone For Multiple Nefarious Reasons? ;-)

On another note, everyone needs to remember that early season activity is no predictor of how the entire season will go. For instance, we could see even four or five named storms by the first of July--and then just another one or two by November. Let history be your guide in this...
Quoting 273. 19N81W:

Really not only that the NW Carib? Show me an upper level environment that can support robust thunderstorms first. The ones I am seeing are limited and and usually burn off by mid morning and barely get about 250. This is not a cyclone environment just isn't. Nothing doing in this region.




Yes there is well for NW Carib not right now but in few days

Boy the lack of activity has really stirred you around into big downcaster

Anyway yes TD 2 has TS wind and will likely be upgraded to TS Bonnie on the next advisory
Quoting 272. JrWeathermanFL:





Already looks better than the last Bonnie.

Lol All of them looked pretty ugly. There were a few good looking Bertha's ;-)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 12:55Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Tropical Depression: Two (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 12:25:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 30°01'N 78°06'W (30.0167N 78.1W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 803m (2,635ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 30kts (~ 34.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the NE (42°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 119° at 39kts (From the ESE at ~ 44.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NE (42°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1014mb (29.95 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 762m (2,500ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 762m (2,500ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph) which was observed 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NE (42°) from the flight level center at 12:06:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Although plane has found tropical storm force winds,the pressure has been rising and that is not good.It rose to 1014 mbs at second pass.

URNT12 KNHC 281255
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022016
A. 28/12:25:40Z
B. 30 deg 01 min N
078 deg 06 min W
C. 925 mb 803 m
D. 30 kt
E. 042 deg 58 nm
F. 119 deg 39 kt
G. 042 deg 60 nm
H. EXTRAP 1014 mb
I. 19 C / 762 m
J. 20 C / 762 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 9
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF307 0202A CYCLONE OB 09
MAX FL WIND 39 KT 042 / 60 NM 12:06:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
Quoting 265. JrWeathermanFL:



TD 2 Kinda had a bit of a westward jog didn't it?




A slight westward jog, yes.
I'll give 4:1 odds that they bump it up to a TS at 11 am given the results of the reconnaissance.
Quoting 279. Tropicsweatherpr:

Although plane has found tropical storm force winds,the pressure has been rising and that is not good.It rose to 1014 mbs at second pass.

URNT12 KNHC 281255
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022016
A. 28/12:25:40Z
B. 30 deg 01 min N
078 deg 06 min W
C. 925 mb 803 m
D. 30 kt
E. 042 deg 58 nm
F. 119 deg 39 kt
G. 042 deg 60 nm
H. EXTRAP 1014 mb
I. 19 C / 762 m
J. 20 C / 762 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 9
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF307 0202A CYCLONE OB 09
MAX FL WIND 39 KT 042 / 60 NM 12:06:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB


Good morning

There isn't much to this TD with a surface pressure that high. Extrap. is from 925 mb level as well so pretty accurate.
Quoting 277. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Lol All of them looked pretty ugly. There were a few good looking Bertha's





Bonnie in '98 was a decent storm
Hard to believe this thing even has a center anymore
Quoting 283. JrWeathermanFL:

Hard to believe this thing even has a center anymore

Center Reformation? IDK what's going on with this TD. Recon keeps reporting back abnormally higher pressures.
Quoting 284. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Center Reformation? IDK what's going on with this TD. Recon keeps reporting back abnormally higher pressures.


they did find a closed circulation though. I wonder if something is going on with the pressure readings
To be honest the system looks a ton better than it was yesterday
Quoting 212. MahFL:

TD 2 is looking better, my wife and I are going to chase TD2, heading to Savannah later today :




Definitely go to Savannah. you'll have a great time! Restaurants, beaches, bands. It's Memorial Day weekend, and the beach is already hopping. BTW, the storm is going closer to Myrtle Beach.
Quoting 285. Hurricanes101:



they did find a closed circulation though. I wonder if something is going on with the pressure readings


I think the previous LLC is slipping under or has slipped under convection
There could be a malfunction with onboard barometers
There is no centre reformation or second spin just one and yes it's under the convection so not the problem here
Sounds like some people are upset that a cat 4 is not slamming into the coast this morning.I think T.D 2 has reached the gulf stream and some models have even predicted a stall.If it stalls over the gulf stream we could see a 45-50mph storm.Either way the biggest threat from this in the end will be gusty showers and dangerous rip currents.
Quoting 290. wunderkidcayman:

There is no centre reformation or second spin just one and yes it's under the convection so not the problem here


Disagree. I think that may be the confusion on here. Im sure the NHC isnt confused
Quoting 283. JrWeathermanFL:

Hard to believe this thing even has a center anymore


It certainly does not present well as a cyclone on satellite imagery and with pressure that high an upgrade is probably not on the cards at this time. The lower convergence signature is almost non-existent and the thunderstorms are sheared off to the NW of the low. The winds are also marginal at the surface even for TD status.

All in all not impressive.
Quoting 292. washingtonian115:

Sounds like some people are upset that a cat 4 is not slamming into the coast this morning.I think T.D 2 has reached the gulf stream and some models have even predicted a stall.If it stalls over the gulf stream we could see a 45-50mph storm.Either way the biggest threat from this in the end will be gusty showers and dangerous rip currents.


The stall not expected to be over the Gulfstream but rather over the colder shelf waters on the coast
The TD has just entered the Gulfstream and it better make good use of that time while it over the Gulfstream
Quoting 294. kmanislander:



It certainly does not present well as a cyclone on satellite imagery and with pressure that high an upgrade is probably not on the cards at this time. The lower convergence signature is almost non-existent and the thunderstorms are sheared off to the NW of the low. The winds are also marginal at the surface even for TD status.

All in all not impressive.


It looks more impressive than it did yesterday. I really think there is an issue with the pressure readings
Im not a met LOL. Obviously. This is a hobby for me so bear in mind that my assessments can be taken with a grain of salt. Thats why I begin with the two words I Think.
Looks like RECON is heading home mission over
Quoting 296. Hurricanes101:



It looks more impressive than it did yesterday. I really think there is an issue with the pressure readings


I agree that it looks better than yesterday but that's not saying much :-).

The winds correspond to what we are seeing with the pressure readings.
New vortex message out
Quoting 287. TybeeJoe:



Definitely go to Savannah. you'll have a great time! Restaurants, beaches, bands. It's Memorial Day weekend, and the beach is already hopping. BTW, the storm is going closer to Myrtle Beach.


Morning all. Looks to me it will head towards Beaufort. Don't think it will make it as far N as MYB. Not a very pretty little storm. If it is going to consolidate, the next 12 hrs or so is the only chance it as it hits the GS. Should be just off of the GS right now.



Quoting 297. K8eCane:

Im not a met LOL. Obviously. This is a hobby for me so bear in mind that my assessments can be taken with a grain of salt. Thats why I begin with the two words I Think.


pretty much anything anyone says here can be tken with a grain of salt (there are a couple of exceptions).
Quoting 300. wunderkidcayman:

New vortex message out


D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 19kts (~ 21.9mph

Not even TD strength
Quoting 302. daddyjames:



pretty much anything anyone says here can be tken with a grain of salt (there are a couple of exceptions).


I will say i have learned a lot being on here all these years, but that just shows how much previous met knowledge I had which is none, nada.
Is anyone surprised by this? In the busy years this wouldn't have been looked at. Gotta have a reason for the budget! No but really it's not much to look at. That being said some nice rain
Quoting 303. kmanislander:



D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 19kts (~ 21.9mph

Not even TD strength
Quoting 301. StormJunkie:



Morning all. Looks to me it will head towards Beaufort. Don't think it will make it as far N as MYB. Not a very pretty little storm. If it is going to consolidate, the next 12 hrs or so is the only chance it as it hits the GS. Should be just off of the GS right now.






The NAM and hrrr both agree.

Quoting 305. 19N81W:

Is anyone surprised by this? In the busy years this wouldn't have been looked at. Gotta have a reason for the budget! No but really it's not much to look at. That being said some nice rain



I wish I could get some rain. Every shower is on the West Bay road area and North. Still not a drop in South Sound. Had a sprinkle overnight that did not even register on my weather station.
Off for now.
Not down casting anything it is what it is. Look outside ....this region is dead. Shear is still insane and you can watch the odd low level ts get torn apart. It's very dry and it shows that our proximity to the Eastern pacific is our downfall. Look at the central and eastern Carib farther away from El Niño and it's producing weather. It is what it is and its dry dry dry. Dry air aloft and shear.
Quoting 276. wunderkidcayman:



Yes there is well for NW Carib not right now but in few days

Boy the lack of activity has really stirred you around into big downcaster

Anyway yes TD 2 has TS wind and will likely be upgraded to TS Bonnie on the next advisory
This system has been dealing with water temperatures in the upper 70s for most of its existence. No wonder it hasn't been intensifying much.
Quoting 275. Neapolitan:

Great question! Why not ask JB himself, the increasingly self-marginalized weather guy who's convinced that every single government-funded scientist is in on some Grand Scheme To Defraud Everyone For Multiple Nefarious Reasons? ;-)

On another note, everyone needs to remember that early season activity is no predictor of how the entire season will go. For instance, we could see even four or five named storms by the first of July--and then just another one or two by November. Let history be your guide in this...
Nothing new under the sun!History is good to go back and look at may learn something about weather today.
Forgot to post the daily hurricane propaganda map

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 1h1 hour ago
Still southeast shear present. Should keep #TD2 at bay. Outcome, same thinking as yesterday. Be careful in water.
Anyone think we will have Bonnie official at 11am?
Quoting 313. washingtonian115:

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 1h1 hour ago
Still southeast shear present. Should keep #TD2 at bay. Outcome, same thinking as yesterday. Be careful in water.
. Oh oh
That's more like it.

Quoting 316. Grothar:

That's more like it.




So is it officially blobbed?
There is another low developing after TD 2 leaves the area , with possible development and a path towards Florida. Anyone getting this with the long range models?
Quoting 309. 19N81W:

Not down casting anything it is what it is. Look outside ....this region is dead. Shear is still insane and you can watch the odd low level ts get torn apart. It's very dry and it shows that our proximity to the Eastern pacific is our downfall. Look at the central and eastern Carib farther away from El Niño and it's producing weather. It is what it is and its dry dry dry. Dry air aloft and shear.



Oh so darn inpatient
Yes for not it ain't that great but just give it a week or so

Lol your jealous that we getting all the rain up here in WB well don't worry plenty more soon come and it will be all island
No Bonnie at 11am....maybe 2 pm?
Quoting 318. birdsrock2016:

There is another low developing after TD 2 leaves the area , with possible development and a path towards Florida. Anyone getting this with the long range models?


The NAM has been very consistent that a second low forms in a couple days and it affects the Outerbanks of North Carolina.
Check out the Folly Beach, SC webcam.It looks nasty out here.

http://www.surfchex.com/follybeach-web-cam.php
The center of T.D.2 is just starting to come into radar range.
Quoting 316. Grothar:

That's more like it.




Ok. This was a challenge but we at the blob descriptor center (after blob identification has been officially announced) designate this as definitely the head of a Chinese Crested Dog (the puffed version).



Edit: Or at least the hair on top of the head.
Quoting 325. Sfloridacat5:

The center of T.D.2 is just starting to come into radar range.



Given the forecast track and speed, we will have plenty of time to view it.
Quoting 318. birdsrock2016:

There is another low developing after TD 2 leaves the area , with possible development and a path towards Florida. Anyone getting this with the long range models?

Yes I have been seeing the models show this it doesn't go to florida though
Hey! I can finally see me on radar! Couple hundred miles due north of the center and well away from any showers, but it is a start I have my hard hat on and I'm ready to ride the worst out!
A Pre Season foo foo.

Least it brought out the "Minor Burd's".

: P

331. vis0
Its like watching interstellar clouds of dust and gas (nebula) and waiting for a star to be "born" (recycled/"reincarnated").

Now i have to go shopping. so i have a job for anyone that wants it.

JOB:: Post the following,

PAY:: 1/4 cent per 15 minutes. (work slow otherwise i'd need some Estonian formula to figure out the payment.

Back to watching paint dry then the sand go through an hourglass then Taz mention the next iPhone then trying to understand the first 2 words of any sentence i post (those are sentences???) then the next update.
2016
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter

nice to see disney got in 2021 :)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I'd give TD 2 a greater than 60% chance that it's not going to intensify despite the gulf stream. Land interaction will come into play. Shear is too high. Dry air will still be a player. My odds of bonnie are less than 40%. Doesn't mean that bonnie can't still happen. I'm just not confident right now.
Convection needs to be firing pretty soon....at least it should be

336. vis0
CREDIT::(ir-BD@SSMIS)
20160528_02L.TWO



Why does it look like 02L. is saying something to that other dark blotch further SSE.
Why is 02L. pointing towards its east (dark blotch looks like hand-finger)
Why am i acting ilogical as to present day social thoughts and giving something that at present is not considered "alive" "words/thoughts"
This and more to continue of WxCompass...i mean Weatherunderground
I've been curiously watching the long tail of thunderstorms that extends hundreds of miles from tropical depression two, almost looks like there's another disturbance to the northeast of the Bahamas this morning...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis. html
Quoting 198. swflurker:

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but I will give a thumbs up to which model, or models picked this up last week!
There were some nonbelievers, time for a little crow snack, but it did not turn out to be a ghost storm!
Hopefully, recent upgrades have helped with the future forecasts. Time will tell.
Greetings & Blessings Everyone.

Kudos to forecast model experts Re: model performance thus far so early in the 'pre season' - Let us hope this reliable issuance remains consistent throughout the upcoming 2016 hurricane season.
Praying that this year will be rather uneventful -impact wise. Today has yielded very significant rainfall totals in the Nature Island of the Caribbean, Dominica...trusting that everyone is safe & dry as can be.
May God Richly Bless us All!