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Tropical Storm Sonia Hits Mexico; Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Likely Over

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:50 PM GMT on November 04, 2013

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Sonia, the eighteenth named storm of the 2013 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, made landfall near midnight EST on Sunday near El Dorado, Mexico, as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches are expected in Mainland Mexico along the path of Sonia on Monday, potentially triggering flash floods and mudslides. Moisture from Sonia is being drawn to the northeast, where it will contribute to rains over the Central U.S. later in the week. There are currently no threat areas to discuss in the Eastern Pacific, and the GFS and European models are not predicting development of anything over the coming seven days. The last named storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season typically forms on November 5, so there is a good chance that Sonia will be the last storm of the year. There were no November Eastern Pacific named storms in 2012, but 2011 featured the 2nd strongest storm of the entire Eastern Pacific hurricane season in November, Category 4 Hurricane Kenneth (145 mph winds.)


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Sonia, taken at 18:10 UTC on November 3, 2013. At the time, Sonia had top winds of about 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The 2013 Eastern Pacific hurricane season in perspective
Sonia's formation brings the 2013 Eastern Pacific hurricane season numbers to 18 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Due to the lack of major hurricanes, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) has been just 51% of average so far in 2013. NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, was not far from the mark. It called for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average.

While the raw numbers show a quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season, one bad storm--Hurricane Manuel--made the 2013 season one of the worst in Mexico's history. Manuel made landfall on September 15 near Manzanillo as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and brought devastating flooding to the coast near Acapulco. Manuel was the most expensive Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone in history, with damage estimated at $4.2 billion. The 169 people it killed made it the 7th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record. Only three Eastern Pacific hurricanes have had their names retired--Hurricane Ismael of 1995, Hurricane Pauline of 1997, and Hurricane Kenna of 2002. Manuel is likely to become the fourth retired name on the list.

More trouble in the Western Pacific
Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific over the past month has been very high, with seven typhoons in the month of October alone. According to records at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), this would appear to be a new record for the number of typhoons in any October, breaking the previous record of six typhoons during October 1989 (thanks go to typhoon expert Mark Lander for this stat.) The latest system of concern is Tropical Storm Haiyan, which is gathering strength over the warm tropical waters east of the Philippines. Haiyan's formation brings the tally of named storms in the Western Pacific in 2013 to 28, making it the busiest season in that ocean basin since the 32 named storms of 2004. Satellite loops show that Haiyan is a large tropical storm with plenty of intense thunderstorms that are steadily growing more organized. Haiyan is expected to take advantage of warm waters and low wind shear and intensify into a major Category 4 typhoon by Thursday. Both the GFS and European models predict that Haiyan will pass through the central Philippines near 6 UTC on Friday. If this prediction holds true, Haiyan could be the most dangerous tropical cyclone to affect the Philippines this year--particularly since Tropical Depression Thirty is dumping heavy rains of up to one inch per hour over the central Philippines today, which will saturate the soil and make extreme flooding more likely late this week when Haiyan arrives.

Quiet in the Atlantic
An area of low pressure over the Central Caribbean is bringing disorganized heavy rain showers to the region. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days. In their 8 am EST Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 5-day formation odds of 10%.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Jeff Masters.

RI setting in..... Not good.

This is an extremely well organized system.
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

I think it is safe to say that hurricane season is over for the eastern Pacific, with the GFS and ECMWF showing no significant development through mid-November.


Haiyan(Yolanda)'s model intensity after it strikes the Philippines
Quoting Dr. Masters:
Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days.


Thanks Dr. M, its good to hear its quiet in the Atlantic, and looks to be quiet the remainder of the year. I know some models have shown development way far out however none of those will appear to verify in any way.

Now its time to enjoy the FALL weather. :o)
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Don't let your guard down quite yet...

(WKC.)

Only thing remotely resembling a TS at 336 hours out, so not happening:

Nor'easter at the end of the run.



30W in the Bay of Bengal near India?
Quoting 7. Torito:
Don't let your guard down quite yet...

(WKC.)


Lol never
GEM predicts a nor'easter at 168 hours.

Quoting 11. wunderkidcayman:

Lol never


xD
Ok guys my official retirement day from weather underground is the 5th of December
Quoting 7. Torito:
Don't let your guard down quite yet...

(WKC.)





for get it this year is not a norml year i wish you guys would get it in your heads if this was a norml year we would have 15 too 18 name storms by now but we do not you guys kee thinking we will have a big one in the comeing days but evere days pass with out a big one we are likey done with hurricane season this year has been vary like a EL nino season wish means dont be looking for any big storms at this time of year any time soon
What am I looking at to the west heading south?
A stray frontal system?
It can't be tropical..







31W/TC/H/CX

Quoting 14. wunderkidcayman:
Ok guys my official retirement day from weather underground is the 5th of December



Until hurricane season next year. :3
Thanks Doctor:

Sonia's formation brings the 2013 Eastern Pacific hurricane season numbers to 18 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

I am thinking that the very active E-Pac season this year contributed to some of the Atlantic suppression in accordance with Klotzbach's articles related to the observed "inverse" relationship between the Atlantic and overlapping E-Pac season.

However, that is still a probably a small piece of the recent puzzle with regard to the lack of forecasted Atlantic majors the last two years in a row.
Quoting 15. Tazmanian:




for get it this year is not a norml year i wish you guys would get it in your heads if this was a norml year we would have 15 too 18 name storms by now but we do not you guys kee thinking we will have a big one in the comeing days but evere days pass with out a big one we are likey done with hurricane season this year has been vary like a EL nino season wish means dont be looking for any big storms at this time of year any time soon
Hang in there Taz. Those guys have been predicting majors since late May!
Navgem shows it too.







Thanks for the update doc.

Btw, you said "2011 featured the 2nd strongest storm of the entire Eastern Pacific hurricane season in November, Category 4 Hurricane Kenneth (145 mph winds.)" Wasn't Kenneth the strongest November storm in the East Pacific?
Quoting 20. StAugSurf:
Hang in there Taz. Those guys have been predicting majors since late May!


Its ok, only about a 3-5 weeks of the season is left. :)

You don't have to hear it soon.
Quoting 20. StAugSurf:
Hang in there Taz. Those guys have been predicting majors since late May!



and we wont be seeing any majors any time soon
Nino 4 has jumped up to +.02 up big time from last week. We have to watch though if this is El-Nino developing or just a result of the MJO pulse moving through.



Quoting 18. Torito:



Until hurricane season next year. :3

No this is full retirement
Although I may pop back in once in a while you know to see what's new or if there a hurricane on my head but other than that no I'll not be returning
Look, a new wave! Where are the wishcasters?

Quoting 26. wunderkidcayman:

No this is full retirement
Although I may pop back in once in a while you know to see what's new or if there a hurricane on my head but other than that no I'll not be returning

Nooooooooooooo :'(
Here is my original message from last month or so

"To weather underground
So anyways guys, I do have some news. I'm thinking of retiring from WeatherUnderground. From June 13 2009 to June 13 this year, it's been a good 5 years, plus 4 years being a non-member lurker since 2005, so it's been a good long 9 years on WeatherUnderground. I had some good times and I had some bad times (Thanks Trolls) lol. But anyway I'll give you all my final decision on retirement from WU by 1st/10th of Dec."

I have made my mind since then and I've decided to retire on the 5th of December 2013

Quoting 30. wunderkidcayman:
Here is my original message from last month or so

"To weather underground
So anyways guys, I do have some news. I'm thinking of retiring from WeatherUnderground. From June 13 2009 to June 13 this year, it's been a good 5 years, plus 4 years being a non-member lurker since 2005, so it's been a good long 9 years on WeatherUnderground. I had some good times and I had some bad times (Thanks Trolls) lol. But anyway I'll give you all my final decision on retirement from WU by 1st/10th of Dec."

I have made my mind since then and I've decided to retire on the 5th of December 2013



NOOOOOOOO STAY! I need someone to fill me in on the Caymans!
Quoting 27. Torito:
Look, a new wave! Where are the wishcasters?


Not going to develop and plus there is nothing to show that there is a tropical wave I say tropical waves are done for the most part at least

Quoting 28. Torito:

Nooooooooooooo :'(


Lol come on tell the truth your loving it aren't you
Quoting 33. wunderkidcayman:

Not going to develop and plus there is nothing to show that there is a tropical wave I say tropical waves are done for the most part at least



Lol come on tell the truth your loving it aren't you


No, stay. :P

You don't even have 10000 posts yet!
Thanks Jeff...
Soon Scott will be talking about the January MJO
Quoting 36. jjjerry1:
Soon Scott will be talking about the January MJO


0_o

I don't even know if the data is even available then.
Quoting 36. jjjerry1:
Soon Scott will be talking about the January MJO



January storm for the wishcasters.


Quoting 32. Torito:


NOOOOOOOO STAY! I need someone to fill me in on the Caymans!

LOLx100

There is a lot of Caymanian bloggers on this blog
Kman
StormwatcherCI
GrandCaymanMED
Stormpetrol

Just to name a few

But anyway I did say that I would pop in if there is a hurricane on my head
And that's just to inform you guy on the conditions

Plus I'm planning to move off Island some time in the near near future
sing with me....

where did all the wishcasters go...
long time passing...
where did all the wishcasters go...
just from a week ago...

where did all the wishcasters go
predicting that the wind would blow
out along the gulf near mexico...
oh where did they go...

they promised a storm would blow...
said the gem assured it was so...
oh how they scorned those that said no..
but now they aint here to eat there crow..

where did all the wishcasters go...
long time passing...
where did all the wishcasters go...
just from a week ago...
What's the WU retirement package like? Good medical and dental?...
42. JRRP
Quoting Torito:
Look, a new wave! Where are the wishcasters?


i do not see any wave...

Quoting 39. wunderkidcayman:

LOLx100

There is a lot of Caymanian bloggers on this blog
Kman
StormwatcherCI
GrandCaymanMED
Stormpetrol

Just to name a few

But anyway I did say that I would pop in if there is a hurricane on my head
And that's just to inform you guy on the conditions

Plus I'm planning to move off Island some time in the near near future


:(
We'll miss you WKC
Quoting 42. JRRP:

i do not see any wave...



Sarcasm bro..... Some of the wishcasters think that any bit of convection is a tropical system.
Atlantic

- Tropical Storm Andrea
- Tropical Storm Barry
- Tropical Storm Chantal
- Tropical Storm Dorian
- Tropical Storm Erin
- Tropical Storm Fernand
- Tropical Storm Gabrielle
- Tropical Depression Eight
- Hurricane Humberto
- Hurricane Ingrid
- Tropical Storm Jerry
- Tropical Storm Karen
- Tropical Storm Lorenzo

Pacific

- Tropical Storm Alvin
- Hurricane Barbara
- Hurricane Cosme
- Hurricane Dalila
- Hurricane Erick
- Tropical Storm Flossie
- Hurricane Gil
- Hurricane Henriette
- Tropical Storm Ivo
- Tropical Storm Juliette
- Tropical Storm Kiko
- Tropical Storm Lorena
- Hurricane Manuel
- Tropical Storm Narda
- Tropical Storm Octave
- Tropical Storm Priscilla
- Hurricane Raymond
- Tropical Storm Sonia
Quoting 34. Torito:


No, stay. :P

You don't even have 10000 posts yet!

LOL nor do you
But I do have 2 post I thought I would have done more but I guess not
But I did contribute I've commented many times 9228 times plus this one to be precise

Quoting 38. Torito:



January storm for the wishcasters.



Lol be careful it might actually happen
Quoting 47. wunderkidcayman:

LOL nor do you
But I do have 2 post I thought I would have done more but I guess not
But I did contribute I've commented many times 9228 times plus this one to be precise


Lol be careful it might actually happen


Stay until you get 10000 posts. :)
Looks impressive anyway..
Quoting 47. wunderkidcayman:

LOL nor do you
But I do have 2 post I thought I would have done more but I guess not
But I did contribute I've commented many times 9228 times plus this one to be precise


Lol be careful it might actually happen


And I only have a half a year as a member on here. :)

I lurked as a non member for like 5 years before becoming one...

3k posts is good for that amount of time :)
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Looks like Texas is getting another stream of mid/upper-level moisture from the Southwest, and the Eastern Pacific tropical weather. 3rd this fall?

Local NWS explained one day, that it still takes a front or other feature to squeeze the rain out of the sky. The mountains in Mexico keep the moisture over there.

Quoting 40. ricderr:
sing with me....

where did all the wishcasters go...
long time passing...
where did all the wishcasters go...
just from a week ago...

where did all the wishcasters go
predicting that the wind would blow
out along the gulf near mexico...
oh where did they go...

they promised a storm would blow...
said the gem assured it was so...
oh how they scorned those that said no..
but now they aint here to eat there crow..

where did all the wishcasters go...
long time passing...
where did all the wishcasters go...
just from a week ago...

Lol sing along

Quoting 41. NttyGrtty:
What's the WU retirement package like? Good medical and dental?...

Lol

Quoting 43. Torito:


:(

So you really gonna miss me huh

Quoting 44. sdswwwe:
We'll miss you WKC

Aww

Quoting 45. Torito:


Sarcasm bro..... Some of the wishcasters think that any bit of convection is a tropical system.

That is so true

Quoting 46. Torito:
Atlantic

- Tropical Storm Andrea
- Tropical Storm Barry
- Tropical Storm Chantal
- Tropical Storm Dorian
- Tropical Storm Erin
- Tropical Storm Fernand
- Tropical Storm Gabrielle
- Tropical Depression Eight
- Hurricane Humberto
- Hurricane Ingrid
- Tropical Storm Jerry
- Tropical Storm Karen
- Tropical Storm Lorenzo

Pacific

- Tropical Storm Alvin
- Hurricane Barbara
- Hurricane Cosme
- Hurricane Dalila
- Hurricane Erick
- Tropical Storm Flossie
- Hurricane Gil
- Hurricane Henriette
- Tropical Storm Ivo
- Tropical Storm Juliette
- Tropical Storm Kiko
- Tropical Storm Lorena
- Hurricane Manuel
- Tropical Storm Narda
- Tropical Storm Octave
- Tropical Storm Priscilla
- Hurricane Raymond
- Tropical Storm Sonia


I really thought we would have gotten more at this point but I still think we can squeeze in 1 or 2 more storm before the 30th even if there subtropical

Quoting 52. wunderkidcayman:

Lol sing along


Lol


So you really gonna miss me huh


Aww


That is so true



I really thought we would have gotten more at this point but I still think we can squeeze in 1 or 2 more storm before the 30th even if there subtropical



Yes, everyone misses you. (except trollers which is half of the blog.....)

I wanted to see an Olga but that isn't happening. xD
Quoting jjjerry1:
Soon Scott will be talking about the January MJO


LOL. I think its on to El Nino predictions now, since there are no monster canes on the 384 hour GFS heading towards his house :o)
Quoting 53. Torito:


Yes, everyone misses you. (except trollers which is half of the blog.....)

I wanted to see an Olga but that isn't happening. xD

Lol yes the trolls
Lol don't forget TAZ lol
Just messin with you TAZ

And you never know we could see 3 storms before 30th Nov
We have to wait and see

Quoting 54. StormWx:


LOL. I think its on to El Nino predictions now, since there are no monster canes on the 384 hour GFS heading towards his house :o)

Lol
Quoting 55. wunderkidcayman:

Lol yes the trolls
Lol don't forget TAZ lol
Just messin with you TAZ

And you never know we could see 3 storms before 30th Nov
We have to wait and see



Taz....... He is a very spontaneous person.


Anyways... 30W looks better than earlier.

58. JRRP
Quoting Torito:


Sarcasm bro..... Some of the wishcasters think that any bit of convection is a tropical system.

jajaja ok
Quoting 55. wunderkidcayman:

Lol yes the trolls
Lol don't forget TAZ lol
Just messin with you TAZ

And you never know we could see 3 storms before 30th Nov
We have to wait and see



ok
Quoting 57. Torito:


Taz....... He is a very spontaneous person.


Anyways... 30W looks better than earlier.



Yes he is

Yeah 30W looking good

And so is our Caribbean AOI it look a bit better as well

New maps show weakening upper level trof on W tip of Cuba and it's moving out upper level anticyclone is moving W. Bound over our LLC

Vort as increased too

You can see that convection is certainly increasing over and around the LLC



Quoting 59. Tazmanian:


ok

Hey TAZ
Quoting 60. wunderkidcayman:


Yes he is

Yeah 30W looking good

And so is our Caribbean AOI it look a bit better as well

New maps show weakening upper level trof on W tip of Cuba and it's moving out upper level anticyclone is moving W. Bound over our LLC

Vort as increased too

You can see that convection is certainly increasing over and around the LLC





Maybe it should have a 10/30 chance of developing on the NHC.
Quoting 62. Torito:


Maybe it should have a 10/30 chance of developing on the NHC.

Agreed
Wait is that
10/30 yellow on yellow
Or 10/30 yellow on orange
Quoting 63. stormpetrol:

Hey stormpetrol
It's certainly a tight and closed LLC
Quoting 64. wunderkidcayman:

Agreed
Wait is that
10/30 yellow on yellow
Or 10/30 yellow on orange


yellow on yellow.




Conditions improving and slightly better organized!
Quoting 66. Torito:


yellow on yellow.

Ok though I was kinda thinking yellow on orange but yellow on yellow is fine
Quoting 68. wunderkidcayman:

Ok though I was kinda thinking yellow on orange but yellow on yellow is fine


30 is borderline orange. :P

See if you got mail, by the way.
Quoting 67. stormpetrol:




Conditions improving and slightly better organized!

Yep just said that
Quoting 69. Torito:


30 is borderline orange. :P

Yeah so it could be either
.
Quoting 73. Thrawst:
.


?

:P
Quoting 72. stormpetrol:
Link

Yep floater is up on Caribbean system

Link

new fall time picture from me!!
Good morning everyone...any mention from the NHC in the TWO or TWD on this wave in the Eastern Atlantic? I know it is late in the season to get development out there, but this looks like a pretty healthy wave that has been moving very slowly.

For those wondering the MJO didn't fail it is actually in the Atlantic Basin. This is just another victim of the 2013 season, right now dry air and wind shear seem to be the name of the game.

Quoting 77. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning everyone...any mention from the NHC in the TWO or TWD on this wave in the Eastern Atlantic? I know it is late in the season to get development out there, but this looks like a pretty healthy wave that has been moving very slowly.


Nothing no evidence at all that there is a tropical wave no wave at all
80. JRRP
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning everyone...any mention from the NHC in the TWO or TWD on this wave in the Eastern Atlantic? I know it is late in the season to get development out there, but this looks like a pretty healthy wave that has been moving very slowly.


Sarcasm ???
Quoting 78. GTstormChaserCaleb:
For those wondering the MJO didn't fail it is actually in the Atlantic Basin. This is just another victim of the 2013 season, right now dry air and wind shear seem to be the name of the game.


It didn't fail its helping our Caribbean AOI to start build convection so far it's doing good
Anyway I'll see you guys later
Quoting 63. stormpetrol:


Wow that is a pretty tight circulation for this little guy. Seems like it will never build convection with this shear though...
Quoting 84. TropicalAnalystwx13:


How does that happen...
Quoting 16. Torito:
What am I looking at to the west heading south?
A stray frontal system?
It can't be tropical..








Surface reflection of a mid-level cutoff low.

"Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots"

Unfavorable conditions. No surprise.
shear won't be a problem

shear is dying out within 24-36hrs shear should be low
in 48hrs shear should not be an issue

now



24hrs


36hrs


48hrs


convection is starting to build up because of the lower shear environment that its starting to receive
and as lower shear comes to fruition so will the convection
Quoting 51. DFWdad:
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Looks like Texas is getting another stream of mid/upper-level moisture from the Southwest, and the Eastern Pacific tropical weather. 3rd this fall?

Local NWS explained one day, that it still takes a front or other feature to squeeze the rain out of the sky. The mountains in Mexico keep the moisture over there.


Fourth time actually that an EPac storm has streamed mid/upper level moisture to contribute to rainfall in Texas actually. Manuel, Octave, Raymond, and now Sonia, although we may be a little out of phase this time with the upper level moisture and the low level moisture. While the mid/upper level moisture is already juiced, low level return flow has been a little slow to respond following our last front, which can be seen with surface dewpoints and Theta-E.



WV loop shows upper level moisture and clouds streaming over Mexico from the EPac via the subtropical jetstream.



12Z sounding from Del Rio this morning, showing a very warm and saturated mid and upper level troposphere, but also lacking surface dewpoints (only 56*F).



RAP surface Temps/Winds/Dewpoints.



RAP surface Winds/Theta-E.
That upper level low parked off the Western tip of Cuba (below) is pumping sheer and cooler mid and upper level dry air into the Yellow area........I would not expect any development of this area given those conditions and the proximity to land; it is not in the most supportive environment and place in spite of the baroclinic convection we are seeing as the result of the ULL interaction.



Quoting 14. wunderkidcayman:
Ok guys my official retirement day from weather underground is the 5th of December
Going "off-grid"??? I don't think I could retire unless the internet was no longer available..... have you heard something we need to know about?
Cool, thanks for additional info.

No heavy rain this time without the lower level moisture, just light rain so far today, with a chance of storms later. The DFW area missed most of it last week, but Austin got hammered.

Though its not happening today, its kinda sad to see the rain falling from high-based clouds and evaporate into a dry lower atmosphere (verga?), especially when we need it.

Quoting 90. 1900hurricane:

Fourth time actually that an EPac storm has streamed mid/upper level moisture to contribute to rainfall in Texas actually. Manuel, Octave, Raymond, and now Sonia, although we may be a little out of phase this time with the upper level moisture and the low level moisture. While the mid/upper level moisture is already juiced, low level return flow has been a little slow to respond following our last front, which can be seen with surface dewpoints and Theta-E.



WV loop shows upper level moisture and clouds streaming over Mexico from the EPac via the subtropical jetstream.



12Z sounding from Del Rio this morning, showing a very warm and saturated mid and upper level troposphere, but also lacking surface dewpoints (only 56*F).



RAP surface Temps/Winds/Dewpoints.



RAP surface Winds/Theta-E.
Quoting 88. wunderkidcayman:
shear won't be a problem

shear is dying out within 24-36hrs shear should be low
in 48hrs shear should not be an issue

now



24hrs


36hrs


48hrs




I don't mind wishcasting as long as it is reasonable.

The shear is a problem. You guys have been saying the ULL was going to go away since Saturday.
Quoting 85. Thrawst:


How does that happen...


Overload
For your Monday Edu-tainment-cation
Solar Eclipse
Taken by Ben Cooper on November 3, 2013 @ Central Atlantic Ocean.

Image Details:
"Taken at 43,000 feet as out chartered Falcon 900B jet makes the first ever high-speed intercept by crossing the 4 km/s shadow perpendicular. We had to be at the right spot at the instant with no margin for error. We were about one second off, to be specific." Link
The "Diamond Ring"

"Schweeet"
Quoting 97. JNTenne:
For your Monday Edu-tainment-cation
Solar Eclipse
Taken by Ben Cooper on November 3, 2013 @ Central Atlantic Ocean. Image Details:
Taken at 43,000 feet as out chartered Falcon 900B jet makes the first ever high-speed intercept by crossing the 4 km/s shadow perpendicular. We had to be at the right spot at the instant with no margin for error. We were about one second off, to be specific. Link


Nice diamond ring shot.


Why is there a storm shown South of Ghana?
Quoting 100. ChillinInTheKeys:


Why is there a storm shown South of Ghana?


Its probably a glitch.


Station 42058
NDBC
Location: 14.923N 74.918W
Date: Mon, 04 Nov 2013 16:50:00 UTC
Winds: W (270°) at 5.8 kt gusting to 7.8 kt
Significant Wave Height: 2.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (60°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.80 in and falling
Air Temperature: 83.7 F
Quoting 102. Torito:

Tropical Disturbance Area 1 Floater


Not gonna form :/
Quoting 104. FunnelVortex:


Not gonna form :/


Yea, I am not really expecting anything out of this.... It might make invest status, but probably nothing more.


Haiyan, on the other hand, might make it to strong typhoon status (cat 3).

Quoting 105. Torito:


Yea, I am not really expecting anything out of this.... It might make invest status, but probably nothing more.


It technically is an invest, but even if it pulls a miracle on us it would only make brief TD status.
Quoting 106. FunnelVortex:


It technically is an invest, but even if it pulls a miracle on us it would only make brief TD status.


By invest, I mean noaa.gov gives it a floater. :)

I feel that we could see 1 or 2 more tropical or subtropical depressions this season, but nothing more than a minimal tropical/subtropical storm (40-45mph).

The GOM, east coast, and subtropical Atlantic are shut down now.

All of the action will be back home or in the tropical Atlantic, ONLY IF SHEAR DIES DOWN.
Quoting 88. wunderkidcayman:
shear won't be a problem

shear is dying out within 24-36hrs shear should be low
in 48hrs shear should not be an issue

now



24hrs


36hrs


48hrs


The next Wilma is surely in the making!!.Ha ha!
Quoting 108. washingtonian115:
The next Wilma is surely in the making!!.Ha ha!


No, Typhoon tip will cross the Atlantic years after it happened and turn into a 200MPH hurricane..... :3
Quoting 109. Torito:


No, Typhoon tip will cross the Atlantic years after it happened and turn into a 200MPH hurricane..... :3


Everyone run! The next Camille is coming!
How many days to the start of the 2014 Season?
Quoting 108. washingtonian115:
The next Wilma is surely in the making!!.Ha ha!


NHC gives it a 10% chance in the next 5 days. I gotta go with them on this one.
Quoting 111. Dakster:
How many days to the start of the 2014 Season?


.....

Result: 209 days

18,057,600 seconds
300,960 minutes
5016 hours
209 days
29 weeks

Link
12Z GFS
Quoting 111. Dakster:
How many days to the start of the 2014 Season?



can we get done with winter 1st
Quoting 114. StormTrackerScott:
12Z GFS


End of run bro.... :|
Quoting 116. Torito:


End of run bro.... :|


Don't get excited cold core system there.
Quoting 114. StormTrackerScott:
12Z GFS


Noreaster if anything.
Quoting 114. StormTrackerScott:
12Z GFS



Hey, that website is down on the model page, it appears. :P
0_0 First snow for MD coming up?

HEHE GEM IS GLITCHED!

Why is everyone leaving?? I have to watch this after 3 months here?
Quoting 81. wunderkidcayman:

It didn't fail its helping our Caribbean AOI to start build convection so far it's doing good
I'm surprised Dr masters doesn't call you to help him write his blog! You must know something about those little clouds down there that he doesn't. Haha
Quoting 122. pie314271:
Why is everyone leaving?? I have to watch this after 3 months here?


People are leaving because of the trolls on this blog.... No one cares to get rid of them, it seems.
First snowstorm in the making for 11-12th November for Northern New England. 4-6" possible. Although this is a long term forecast, I think it's quite accurate at this time.
This is a large storm that is on the verge of being a Typhoon and may be a Super one that is going to affect millons of people in Cebu located in the Central Phillipines.

Quoting 113. Torito:


.....

Result: 209 days

18,057,600 seconds
300,960 minutes
5016 hours
209 days
29 weeks

Link


Those stats made my stats mind figure out how many weeks i have until my freshman year at college ends.

22 weeks ^_^
Quoting 124. Torito:


People are leaving because of the trolls on this blog.... No one cares to get rid of them, it seems.
Not so sure about that one T. With proper utilization of the "IGNORE" list, I find that the troll effects can be minimized.
Quoting 127. Thrawst:


Those stats made my stats mind figure out how many weeks i have until my freshman year at college ends.

22 weeks ^_^


:D
Quoting 128. JNTenne:
Not so sure about that one T. With proper utilization of the "IGNORE" list, I find that the troll effects can be minimized.


Yes, however some people don't use it... I don't know why. :P
Amazing electrical fireball!
Fantastic eclipse from a jet. (diamond ring?)
I have been away so missed the trolling and exodus.

Good Afternoon/Morning.
Quoting 114. StormTrackerScott:
12Z GFS
lol 350+ hours out
Starting to catch some low level return flow again here in Texas, although it'll take a bit to build the low level moisture back up again.

Quoting 131. Torito:


Yes, however some people don't use it... I don't know why. :P
Yeah, hear that one.. I have no problem with people being reminded to use the list, or at least not QUOTE the obvious offenders... I will sometimes get sucked into a thread only to realize usually when reading a really questionable comment and then looking to see the profiles start date and post total at the bottom.. regulars are pretty good at alerting to troll behavior and if the suspect is legit they will correct their behavior, if not and they are just instigators **POOF**
Quoting 115. Tazmanian:



can we get done with winter 1st


What's winter?

Down here, we only have a hot, humid and intolerable part of the year and then we get summer, which is worse.
--

Ohh and there's a published ingore list? I must have missed that memo.
Quoting 135. JNTenne:
Yeah, hear that one.. I have no problem with people being reminded to use the list, or at least not QUOTE the obvious offenders... I will sometimes get sucked into a thread only to realize usually when reading a really questionable comment and then looking to see the profiles start date and post total at the bottom.. regulars are pretty good at alerting to troll behavior and if the suspect is legit they will correct their behavior, if not and they are just instigators **POOF**


Yes, there are so many trollers that have about 50 posts total on this blog..... And for some reason, they are attracted to Stormtrackerscott like insects.
138. beell
Quoting 124. Torito:


People are leaving because of the trolls on this blog.... No one cares to get rid of them, it seems.


One man's trash is another man's treasure!
(substitute "woman's" if required)
Quoting 138. beell:


One man's trash is another man's treasure!
(substitute "woman's" if required)


LOL.
Quoting Torito:


People are leaving because of the trolls on this blog.... No one cares to get rid of them, it seems.


Not correct. When the tropics die down this place becomes a ghost town. Nothing to do with who posts. Every year its this way. Start a trend, and post something tropical :o)
Looks like the the LLC is finally in less than 20 kt wind shear. Still no convection though...
Quoting 140. StormWx:


Not correct. When the tropics die down this place becomes a ghost town. Nothing to do with who posts. Every year its this way. Start a trend, and post something tropical :o)


When I do that, nothing happens. :)

I cant even get the wishcasters to come out!


see?

Quoting 138. beell:


One man's trash is another man's treasure!
(substitute "woman's" if required)


One woman's trash is another man's treasure?

--

When's the cooler weather supposed to get to South Florida or are we gonna miss it as usual? Or it is here and I missed the 2 degree drop?
144. beell
Quoting 134. 1900hurricane:
Starting to catch some low level return flow again here in Texas, although it'll take a bit to build the low level moisture back up again.



Slow for sure. Mostly a modified easterly surface flow around the southeast ridge today.

Still, some of the dp's reported from the rigs off the Texas coast have rebounded into the mid-60's. Up from low 50's yesterday.

Link
Quoting 143. Dakster:


One woman's trash is another man's treasure?

--

When's the cooler weather supposed to get to South Florida or are we gonna miss it as usual? Or it is here and I missed the 2 degree drop?

theres been a nice breeze here in miami dade since last night :) now its very windy
146. txjac
Quoting 143. Dakster:


One woman's trash is another man's treasure?

--

When's the cooler weather supposed to get to South Florida or are we gonna miss it as usual? Or it is here and I missed the 2 degree drop?


Dak, you are known as the "naughty" one on here (at least thats how I see ya ...lol)

The cooler weather made it here ...and loving it ...along with all the rain we have had lately I couldnt be happier weather wise ...

Hope it gets cooler for you soon
CDO formation on Haiyan



148. beell
Quoting 143. Dakster:


One woman's trash is another man's treasure?

--

When's the cooler weather supposed to get to South Florida or are we gonna miss it as usual? Or it is here and I missed the 2 degree drop?


I knew someone would re-arrange that. I guessed correctly also. :-P

Cooler weather in south Florida? Look in between the bumps!


Today's 12Z GFS Forecast T/Td through 180 hrs for Miami
Was beautiful here in Central Florida this morning in the low 50s, and yes, many folks like me resort back to just lurking here once in awhile when the tropics get quiet. We lose some of the good folks, but many return when the weather warrants being worthy of our attention.
Quoting 149. Patrap:

Afternoon, Patrap. :)
Ugh, this news from the San Juan NWS is not what we want so early before the dry season kicks in here in PR on January. I know that all the Eastern Caribbean friends wont be happy but sunlinepr will be with the swell season kicking in.

WITH THE MJO
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EWD INTO AFRICA AND THE INDIAN OCEAN...THE
REST OF NOV LOOKS TO HAVE DRIER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL. IT APPEARS
NOW THAT WE`LL BE ENTERING OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL DRY SEASON VERY SOON
AND ALSO OUR WINTER SWELL SEASON.
We lose some of the good folks, but many return when the weather warrants being worthy of our attention.



well stated
Quoting 152. Tropicsweatherpr:
Ugh, this news from the San Juan NWS is not what we want so early before the dry season kicks in here in PR on January. I know that all the Eastern Caribbean friends wont be happy but sunlinepr will be with the swell season kicking in.

WITH THE MJO
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EWD INTO AFRICA AND THE INDIAN OCEAN...THE
REST OF NOV LOOKS TO HAVE DRIER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL. IT APPEARS
NOW THAT WE`LL BE ENTERING OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL DRY SEASON VERY SOON
AND ALSO OUR WINTER SWELL SEASON.
Isn't the dry season until january?
Quoting 154. Gearsts:
Isn't the dry season until january?


The driest months normally in PR are January,Febuary and March.
156. beell

click image for storm reports.
Interesting BBC video report:

Sea surrender plan to ease flood fears on south coast
By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent, BBC News
4 November 2013 Last updated at 02:29 GMT

A scheme to combat flooding by surrendering land to the sea will be completed on Monday on the south coast.

The £28m "managed realignment" at Medmerry in West Sussex has seen the building of 7km (four miles) of new sea walls up to 2km inland.

By letting the waters in, the Environment Agency says the risk of flooding for hundreds of homes will be reduced.

The surrendered land will become a wetland habitat for many species. ...
I wanted to get down to the water (here in Florida Big Bend) early on Sunday morning to try and see the partial eclipse at sunrise but my old body did not cooperate after a late FSU-Miami game and libations.

Outside of the natural disasters which are not fun to watch (hurricane strikes, earthquakes, tornadoes, tsunami's etc.) a total or good partial eclipse is one of the most awesome sights in nature.

Did anyone on here get up/see it?.......................Thanks.

BTW; my top of the watch list for "man made" events is a big rocket launch (Saturn 5 or Space Shuttle).......................Both are gone now......... :(
Quoting 148. beell:


I knew someone would re-arrange that. I guessed correctly also. :-P

Cooler weather in south Florida? Look in between the bumps!


Today's 12Z GFS Forecast T/Td through 180 hrs for Miami


And since it is pouring now, I assume that is the front coming through?

Although it looks more like fronts colliding with one another on radar.
Quoting 155. Tropicsweatherpr:


The driest months normally in PR are January,Febuary and March.
And if El nino develops what effects can it have on the islands?
Odd hybrid system heading northwest? Seems awfully dry.

360 hours



384 hours



Simulated IR sat doesn't show much with it.

Quoting 161. DonnieBwkGA:
Odd hybrid system heading northwest? Seems awfully dry.

360 hours



384 hours






Nothing hybrid about it, just a baroclinic low with the mid level vorticity forming a cutoff low.



5 Sept. 2012: I think that is Nadine and Michael.

Is it unusual for such a big deep low to be so dry?

Water temp here is down to 71 and 2 weeks from now will probably be lower.
about this time I turn to the Southern Hemisphere if it's not 2005.
Quoting 160. Gearsts:
And if El nino develops what effects can it have on the islands?


When El Nino kicks in we have a very dry pattern that evolves.
Published on Mar 9, 2012


This animation depicts the proposed test flight of the Orion spacecraft in 2014. During the test, which is called Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1), Orion will launch from Cape Canaveral, Fla., perform two orbits, reaching an altitude higher than any achieved by a spacecraft intended for human use since 1973, and then will re-enter and land in the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of the United States.


Quoting 141. sdswwwe:
Looks like the the LLC is finally in less than 20 kt wind shear. Still no convection though...

Yes we are entering DMin so that's expected but as we get into late night that should change as we approach DMax
This is cool! Inside the eye of Igor.

Quoting 168. wunderkidcayman:

Yes we are entering DMin so that's expected but as we get into late night that should change as we approach DMax


This system will NOT be developing into a tropical cyclone...
Quoting 164. DonnieBwkGA:
Is it unusual for such a big deep low to be so dry?

Water temp here is down to 71 and 2 weeks from now will probably be lower.

The only warm and moist area of a mid-latitude cyclone is in the warm sector with cooler and drier air following the cold front in the cold sector. That low ends up occluding and being completely separated from the warm sector.

So in short, no, it is not particularly uncommon to have a low PW area of low pressure like that.

Might as well post images of former storms to fill the void in activity.

The JTWC 21:00 UTC warning increase the maximun winds to 55kts and the peak is up to 130kts.

Quoting 166. Tropicsweatherpr:


When El Nino kicks in we have a very dry pattern that evolves.
Thanks for the information.
In contrast look at Charley's size to Ivan.

Quoting 165. JrWeathermanFL:
about this time I turn to the Southern Hemisphere if it's not 2005.


It will never be 2005 again. We might have a year like 2005 though.
Quoting 166. Tropicsweatherpr:


When El Nino kicks in we have a very dry pattern that evolves.
Oh look what i found :DLink
Quoting 163. GTstormChaserCaleb:
5 Sept. 2012: I think that is Nadine and Michael.

I will say Leslie and michael.
Quoting 165. JrWeathermanFL:
about this time I turn to the Southern Hemisphere if it's not 2005.


Yes, but in the moment Haiyan still steals the moisture from Aussi's side of the world to the northern part. Interesting to watch:


Click to enlarge.


Nothing going on in the tropics. The Caribbean is quiet. Topical Storm development is not expected.
Thanks for answering my question 1900hurricane.
Amazing how these storms take on a characteristic of their own. Speaks volumes to no 2 storms are the carbon copy of one another.

Q&A: Could this year's quiet hurricane season be start of a trend?

Excerpts:

We talked with one of the country's top hurricane experts, Chris Landsea, Science and Operations Officer at the National Hurricane Center.



Why so slow this year?

We're good at explaining things after the fact.

What we saw this hurricane season was more wind shear tearing apart storms, coupled with drier, more stable atmosphere — stable meaning it's hard to get thunderstorms.

And so the combination made for a very quiet hurricane season, one of the quietest on record as it turned out.


Your personal feelings about the 2013 season?

"As a lifelong Floridian, I'm very happy about no Florida hurricanes this year. We did have one tropical storm with Andrea, and the season's not quite over. So I'm a little disappointed as a forecaster we didn't see this coming, but as a resident I'm very happy about it.
Quoting 177. Gearsts:
Oh look what i found :DLink


I thougt it was the contrary but you learn something new every day. I will love El Nino to come.
Quoting 183. nrtiwlnvragn:
Q&A: Could this year's quiet hurricane season be start of a trend?

Excerpts:

We talked with one of the country's top hurricane experts, Chris Landsea, Science and Operations Officer at the National Hurricane Center.



Why so slow this year?

We're good at explaining things after the fact.

What we saw this hurricane season was more wind shear tearing apart storms, coupled with drier, more stable atmosphere — stable meaning it's hard to get thunderstorms.

And so the combination made for a very quiet hurricane season, one of the quietest on record as it turned out.


Your personal feelings about the 2013 season?

"As a lifelong Floridian, I'm very happy about no Florida hurricanes this year. We did have one tropical storm with Andrea, and the season's not quite over. So I'm a little disappointed as a forecaster we didn't see this coming, but as a resident I'm very happy about it.

He's not the only one with those sentiments.
Quoting 185. SuperStorm093:
HEY EVERYONE,

so now that we have reached the point, I WAS RIGHT. No major Hurricanes formed this year due to the dry conditions and extensive shear. You all told me throughout hurricane season how wrong I was and October would be superactive. But I CAN FINALLY officially say I WAS RIGHT!!!!!!!!
Hi I look forward to your analysis post-season on why the season didn't live up to expectations. That's my challenge to everyone, let's see if we can combine our analysis into one, and maybe Dr. M or the NHC will recognize us, fun times ahead if you like to analyze things, so Enlighten me and maybe I will learn something from you. I really want to look in depth into the mid-levels of the atmosphere this season, there might have been disruption there, as you noticed we had a lot of weak storms that failed to intensify and we know in order for a storm to intensify convection needs to grow with height.
Quoting 178. allancalderini:
I will say Leslie and michael.
You are correct sir, that was Leslie and Michael.
Quoting 120. Torito:
0_0 First snow for MD coming up?

Dang..... GEM hmm
On tonight's episode of WeatherBrains, the discussion on the media coverage of the May 31, 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma tornado will continue for the third week. Special guests tonight are Rick Smith, Warning Coordination Meteorologist of the NWS office in Norman, Harold Brooks, a severe thunderstorm and tornado researcher, and Damon Lane, the chief meteorologist at KOCO-TV in Oklahoma City.

Show will be live here starting at 930pm ET/830pm CT
On April 11, 2013, at the 35th session of the RA IV hurricane committee, the name "Sandy" was retired due to the damage and deaths it caused and will not be used for another Atlantic hurricane. Sandy was replaced with "Sara" for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.

I see they are starting to use more contemporary names.
Quoting 120. Torito:
0_0 First snow for MD coming up?

The blue means wind, where does it say snow ?
Quoting 185. SuperStorm093:
HEY EVERYONE,

so now that we have reached the point, I WAS RIGHT. No major Hurricanes formed this year due to the dry conditions and extensive shear. You all told me throughout hurricane season how wrong I was and October would be superactive. But I CAN FINALLY officially say I WAS RIGHT!!!!!!!!


So what was your forecast back in May? Which date and post numbers can I look up? And not simply the season will be a bust type stuff. I'd like to see your forecast reasoning in May for the upcoming season.
Quoting 175. GTstormChaserCaleb:
In contrast look at Charley's size to Ivan.

Yep... Small but oh so powerful
June 1st 2014.

208 days
196. yoboi
Quoting 193. luvtogolf:


So what was your forecast back in May? Which date and post numbers can I look up? And not simply the season will be a bust type stuff. I'd like to see your forecast reasoning in May for the upcoming season.




His join date was July 31 2013....doubt you will find any may predictions.....
Quoting 193. luvtogolf:


So what was your forecast back in May? Which date and post numbers can I look up? And not simply the season will be a bust type stuff. I'd like to see your forecast reasoning in May for the upcoming season.
luv... I smile and grin when everyone says "I told you so" Silverbacks pounding their chests....
Quoting 194. PalmBeachWeather:
Yep... Small but oh so powerful

Despite it being so strong, it really wasn't as bad as it could have been because the duration of the Cat. 4 winds was so short due to the extremely small size of the storm , and then its fast movement .

Might be a nor'easter next week.................
Quoting 198. opal92nwf:

Despite it being so strong, it really wasn't as bad as it could have been because the duration of the Cat. 4 winds was so short due to the extremely small size of the storm , and then its fast movement .

You got to remember though Charley began the long, 2 miserable years of onslaughts of storms hitting the CONUS. Wilma ended that trend. Then it was back to normal.
7-day for the Tampa Bay area....................
Quoting 142. Torito:


When I do that, nothing happens. :)

I cant even get the wishcasters to come out!


see?



Uhm,...did someone mention global warming? (lol)
Quoting 112. luvtogolf:


NHC gives it a 10% chance in the next 5 days. I gotta go with them on this one.
It was sarcasm.With the un-inviting environment tropical cyclone formation shouldn't be anticipated.
Quoting 198. opal92nwf:

Despite it being so strong, it really wasn't as bad as it could have been because the duration of the Cat. 4 winds was so short due to the extremely small size of the storm , and then its fast movement .



It might have been quick but it was like a tornado rolling thru Orlando from SW FL. Many people lost everything from Charley. That was one storm I was actually very affraid and was wishing it would stop as trees where falling everywhere and cars where moving down the street by the winds of 110 mph at my apartment by UCF at the time.
Quoting 203. WalkingInTheSun:


Uhm,...did someone mention global warming? (lol)
The only thing anyone wants to dispute nowadays is the flow of toidy water. At least I got the moist air and overcast conditions back in Florida with my wishcasting.
Quoting 207. Pallis:
The only thing anyone wants to dispute nowadays is the flow of toidy water. At least I got the moist air and overcast conditions back in Florida with my wishcasting.


Off and on light rain showers in Lake Mary this evening.
Quoting 198. opal92nwf:

Despite it being so strong, it really wasn't as bad as it could have been because the duration of the Cat. 4 winds was so short due to the extremely small size of the storm , and then its fast movement .

Did you happen to drive around Sanibel, Captiva Island a few days after.???
Quoting 185. SuperStorm093:
HEY EVERYONE,

so now that we have reached the point, I WAS RIGHT. No major Hurricanes formed this year due to the dry conditions and extensive shear. You all told me throughout hurricane season how wrong I was and October would be superactive. But I CAN FINALLY officially say I WAS RIGHT!!!!!!!!


OMG GOOD FOR YOU!!!
The Tropical Cyclone Report for Tropical Storm Gabrielle is out. Changes..

- No longer considered a tropical storm in the Caribbean

- Peak intensity raised from 60 mph/1003mb to 65 mph/1003mb

Link
Quoting 206. StormTrackerScott:


It might have been quick but it was like a tornado rolling thru Orlando from SW FL. Many people lost everything from Charley. That was one storm I was actually very affraid and was wishing it would stop as trees where falling everywhere and cars where moving down the street by the winds of 110 mph at my apartment by UCF at the time.
Charley was a troublemaker, I was watching the eye come closer in Venice Fl. when my rommates packed up everything valuable into a van and headed for Arcadia. The storm sucked up moisture from the warm swampy water that was everywhere at the time. The Holiday Inn sign fell on their van and ruined everything when they arrived. It would have said no vacancy. In Port Charlotte it snapped all the pine trees in half for miles, and bent a really big steel pole to the ground. I drove up 17 to Zolfo from ground zero. It wrecked things the whole way.
Quoting 212. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Tropical Cyclone Report for Tropical Storm Gabrielle is out. Changes..

- No longer considered a tropical storm in the Caribbean

- Peak intensity raised from 60 mph/1003mb to 65 mph/1003mb

Link

I honestly had to look up Gabrielle to remember which storm it was.

Goes to show how memorable this season was. :P
Possible trough split or tropical transition action off the East Coast in about 10 days.
Quoting 210. SuperStorm093:
I have been right and thats all that matters kind sir.


I was mostly right with my forecast for Sandy last year (I trusted and made my predictions based off of the Euro model), but I didn't boast about it.

Now please. Stop boasting and rubbing it in our faces about how "right" you were when you, just like most of us, were wrong multiple times this season.
Quoting 211. Thrawst:


OMG GOOD FOR YOU!!!
thanks man, TRULY means a lot.
Quoting 214. Ameister12:

I honestly had to look up Gabrielle to remember which storm it was.

Goes to show how memorable this season was. :P


The most memorable storm was Humberto.
Quoting 190. TropicalAnalystwx13:
On tonight's episode of WeatherBrains, the discussion on the media coverage of the May 31, 2013 EF3/5 El Reno, Oklahoma tornado will continue for the third week. Special guests tonight are Rick Smith, Warning Coordination Meteorologist of the NWS office in Norman, Harold Brooks, a severe thunderstorm and tornado researcher, and Damon Lane, the chief meteorologist at KOCO-TV in Oklahoma City.

Show will be live here starting at 930pm ET/830pm CT
Ok it was a 3 or a 5? I am confuse.
Quoting 185. SuperStorm093:
HEY EVERYONE,

so now that we have reached the point, I WAS RIGHT. No major Hurricanes formed this year due to the dry conditions and extensive shear. You all told me throughout hurricane season how wrong I was and October would be superactive. But I CAN FINALLY officially say I WAS RIGHT!!!!!!!!
Someone will no doubt step in and say that you can't claim victory until after November 30 and that a big storm could still happen, etc.

But I will give you a pass and agree with your victory.
Quoting 219. PalmBeachWeather:
No comment regarding post #210... What a freekin' peacock
There's no use..They'll never ban him.
From the NWS
Winds gusting over all of southern Florida this afternoon. A wind advisory is in effect until 1 PM tomorrow for coastal SE Florida (mainly east of I-95) for wind gusts up to 40 mph. These winds are capable of blowing loose outdoor objects around and create hazardous driving conditions, especially on bridges and overpasses. In addition, a Gale Warning is in effect for the Atlantic and Biscayne Bay for winds of at least 39 mph. Very hazardous marine conditions for much of the first part of the week.
Quoting 220. allancalderini:
Ok it was a 3 or a 5? I am confuse.

Isn't everyone?

Officially, but not accurately, an EF-3.
Quoting 222. washingtonian115:
There's no use..They'll never ban him.


They won't for some reason.

I got into an argument with him once, we both got banned. While he was the aggressor and the one who brought it on, he was only banned for five minutes, and I was banned for an hour.

I was like
Gets dark so freaken early now.

I hate daylights savings time.
Quoting 185. SuperStorm093:
HEY EVERYONE,

so now that we have reached the point, I WAS RIGHT. No major Hurricanes formed this year due to the dry conditions and extensive shear. You all told me throughout hurricane season how wrong I was and October would be superactive. But I CAN FINALLY officially say I WAS RIGHT!!!!!!!!



Man....You are the guy!!!... The one we have been looking all season, to make the necessary adjustments and supply the needed science to adjust all models....

Thanks


Epic, stuff like this makes me sweat, lol.
Quoting 221. FLWaterFront:
Someone will no doubt step in and say that you can't claim victory until after November 30 and that a big storm could still happen, etc.

But I will give you a pass and agree with your victory.
And if that happens I say this entire blog gets together for a crow dinner. Trolls, regulars, mods, admins, everyone. :P
Quoting 226. FunnelVortex:
Gets dark so freaken early now.

I hate daylights savings time.




i love it
Quoting 210. SuperStorm093:
I have been right and thats all that matters kind sir.




go take a hike
Lots of dragonflies flying around my backyard. At least 20. I didn't know they could fly so well in the strong winds we're having! I didn't know they came out like this in November either.
Quoting 198. opal92nwf:

Despite it being so strong, it really wasn't as bad as it could have been because the duration of the Cat. 4 winds was so short due to the extremely small size of the storm , and then its fast movement .



Yes but its fast speed and small duration of such strong winds are all the more proving of just how powerful it really was. Charley was basically a powerful tropical cyclone and its eye wall was practically a giant tornado. You can find pictures of demolished concrete buildings, toppled water towers, debarked and chopped trees, and entire neighborhoods shredded apart, some houses completely destroyed.

I went down there first hand to witness the damage a couple weeks later, it was extreme. Wind gusts in Charley had to have been 160 to 175 mph at its peak, even inland into Desoto in Hardee county water towers were topped and chunks of forest leveled with many homes destroyed all the way up into Polk County with it officially making into Polk county with still a well defined eyewall and category 3 strength winds. Personally, I can't think of any hurricane bringing violent hurricane strength winds that far inland. Most major hurricanes have only category 1 strength winds by that point, sometimes tropical storm.

What most people don't think about either was the extreme rainfall rates of the eyewall. It dumped 8 to 10 inches in the eyewall path, with is extreme because it was a tiny eye wall moving very fast. Rainfall rates were likely 6 to 8 inches per hour in the wall, Charley had an extremely efficient warm core engine which supported very deep convection.
That is a lot of isobars for a 1000 MB low..

Quoting 233. Jedkins01:


Yes but its fast speed and small duration of such strong winds are all the more proving of just how powerful it really was. Charley was basically a powerful tropical cyclone and its eye wall was practically a giant tornado. You can find pictures of demolished concrete buildings, toppled water towers, debarked and chopped trees, and entire neighborhoods shredded apart, some houses completely destroyed.

I went down there first hand to witness the damage a couple weeks later, it was extreme. Wind gusts in Charley had to have been 160 to 175 mph at its peak, even inland into Desoto in Hardee county water towers were topped and chunks of forest leveled with many homes destroyed all the way up into Polk County. Personally, I can't think of any hurricane bringing violent hurricane strength winds that far inland. Most major hurricanes have only category 1 strength winds by that point, sometimes tropical storm.


Devastating aftermath of Hurricane Charley
CTV News - CTV Television [Scarborough] 14 Aug 2004: 1.

LISA LAFLAMME: Good evening. Hurricane Charley is a long way from Florida tonight, but still fresh for its victims devastated by the most vicious storm to hammer the state in a decade. Charley was packing winds of 230 kilometres per hour when it smashed ashore from the Gulf of Mexico late yesterday. It slammed the Port Charlotte area and stormed northeast to the Atlantic Ocean. Tonight, 13 people are confirmed dead and thousands have no homes to return to. Damage is in the billions of dollars. CTV's Denelle Balfour is in Punta Gorda, the area hardest-hit. Denelle.

DENELLE BALFOUR (Reporter): Lisa, this is a bewildered and battered community, and today its residents, along with the help of thousands of emergency response workers, began to pick up the pieces of their lives and their homes.

UNIDENTIFIED MAN: Oh, my God! Oh, my God.

BALFOUR: The destruction in central and southwest Florida is widespread and severe. This is Hurricane Charley's ground zero, about 100 kilometres south of Tampa Bay. Words like war zone and junkyard have been used to describe the quaint coastal town of Punta Gorda. Touring the region, Florida state Governor Jeb Bush was shocked by what he saw.

JEB BUSH (Florida Governor): It's hard to describe, seeing an entire community totally flattened.

BALFOUR: Charley pummelled the area with winds in excess of 200 kilometres per hour. It damaged or destroyed over 200,000 homes. Trailer parks were reduced to mounds of twisted metal and insulation. This one is the winter get-away for some 1,000 Canadian retirees. Ontario's Don McElroy made the trip to repair siding. Now he needs a new roof. He was in a shelter when Charley hit.

DON MCELROY (Canadian): There were about a hundred people in the centre, and most of them were elderly, so there were some scary moments during the evening, but everybody survived.

BALFOUR: Thousands of search and rescue workers went door-to- door looking for the injured or the dead.

UNIDENTIFIED MAN: Hello.

BALFOUR: While many heeded evacuation orders, others did not.

UNIDENTIFIED MAN: Why did you stay in town?

UNIDENTIFIED MAN: Oh, because I didn't think it was coming here.

UNIDENTIFIED MAN: I could not believe what I was going through.

UNIDENTIFIED MAN: Life's not fair, but God is good, that's about all I can say. I know we'll recover. We've done it before.

BALFOUR: Rebuilding after Hurricane Charley will likely take years and cost billions of dollars. US President George Bush is going to be in Punta Gorda tomorrow to examine the extent of the damage firsthand. Some are already saying it could be the costliest natural disaster in US history. Lisa.

LAFLAMME: And the most horrifying Denelle. I mean from a distance it's difficult to even compute the kind of devastation. That looks like a mattress right behind you. What is it like being there first- hand?

BALFOUR: Well it's been both shocking and it's been heartbreaking. I mean what we're looking at behind me, I'm not sure if you can really tell, but it's what's left of somebody's trailer home. And it's been turned inside-out and there are thousands of homes just like this one. When you think of the person who used to live there, it's tragic in terms of human loss. And it was also so humbling to see the power and the devastation caused by Hurricane Charley. You don't get it unless you're here. Crumpled sheet metal like crepe paper, it shredded trees. I saw a big couch wedged in the window of a third storey apartment and it's hard to imagine how that happens.

LAFLAMME: How are relief workers even able to get their jobs done with such debris and the power and communication out?

BALFOUR: Well that's true, there are no communications so aid workers are having difficulty coordinating relief efforts and getting information to people. A Red Cross worker asked if she could use my cell phone, which worked on occasion. It's also still very dangerous. There's concern about live power lines, about open gas lines, so it's a very slow and tedious job for relief workers and a dangerous and challenging one. Lisa.

LAFLAMME: Dangerous indeed. Denelle Balfour reporting from Punta Gorda tonight. After flattening Florida, a weakened Charley roared into South Carolina this afternoon. Now classified as a tropical storm, Charley brought heavy rains and winds to the state where close to 200,000 people were ordered to leave. Many will return to demolished homes. In Myrtle Beach, buildings were levelled by 130 kilometres an hour winds. Charley is slowly moving north toward Canada. New Brunswick is expected to feel the effects as early as tomorrow night. The province is already dealing with the remnants of tropical storm Bonnie. Heavy rains caused flash floods resulting in at least one drowning. Northern New Brunswick was the hardest hit, flooding homes and washing out roads.
Quoting 233. Jedkins01:


Yes but its fast speed and small duration of such strong winds are all the more proving of just how powerful it really was. Charley was basically a powerful tropical cyclone and its eye wall was practically a giant tornado. You can find pictures of demolished concrete buildings, toppled water towers, debarked and chopped trees, and entire neighborhoods shredded apart, some houses completely destroyed.

I went down there first hand to witness the damage a couple weeks later, it was extreme. Wind gusts in Charley had to have been 160 to 175 mph at its peak, even inland into Desoto in Hardee county water towers were topped and chunks of forest leveled with many homes destroyed all the way up into Polk County with it officially making into Polk county with still a well defined eyewall and category 3 strength winds. Personally, I can't think of any hurricane bringing violent hurricane strength winds that far inland. Most major hurricanes have only category 1 strength winds by that point, sometimes tropical storm.

What most people don't think about either was the extreme rainfall rates of the eyewall. It dumped 8 to 10 inches in the eyewall path, with is extreme because it was a tiny eye wall moving very fast. Rainfall rates were likely 6 to 8 inches per hour in the wall, Charley had an extremely efficient warm core engine which supported very deep convection.
Charley was a bona fide nightmare for a lot of people. Including myself.. I pray I never see anything like it again.

Nearby Airports

New Haven | Mostly Cloudy | 39 °F
Chester | Clear | 37 °F
Meriden | Clear | 38 °F

Wrong location?


Nearby Weather Stations

Bishops Orchards-Meadow Ridge | 36.1 °F
Orcutt | 35.4 °F
Quoting 236. Pallis:
If I ever make a major prediction, I will make Superstorm look like a bashful Betsy. I will actually do a jig in front of Klystron with music, or some ridiculous stunt. I'll show him who the [what?!] is around here. But wait, you are right, the season is not over. I still have time to make my costume.
#236

You can actually get away with that here??!?!
Quoting 229. GTstormChaserCaleb:
And if that happens I say this entire blog gets together for a crow dinner. Trolls, regulars, mods, admins, everyone. :P


As long as someone cooks the whole pig...
Quoting 240. FunnelVortex:
#236

You can actually get away with that here??!?!
Typo, I meant to say foreman.
Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.

No monomania.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
No monomania....as in "I was right I am always right"on every post you make..if you was right on something that's fine..no need to say over and over on the Drs blog...I will ban for this without hesitation...Thanks!
Evening all.

Quoting 47. wunderkidcayman:

LOL nor do you
But I do have 2 post I thought I would have done more but I guess not
But I did contribute I've commented many times 9228 times plus this one to be precise


Lol be careful it might actually happen
You have a chance to make it to 10,000 before you retire...

I for one will be sorry to see you go. You've got the chutzpah to make it anywhere, though so I also wish you success in your ventures.

Quoting 76. hurricanes2018:

new fall time picture from me!!
Same trees or different ones? They sure are pretty golden...

Quoting 245. Civicane49:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


And it goes quiet again..... maybe for the last time.
Quoting 211. Thrawst:


OMG GOOD FOR YOU!!!
I kept trying to tell this guy people would be far more excited for him if he had been able to control this propensity for rubbing it in all the time...

:o/
26 more days until the end of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
evening all hello baha
Quoting 218. FunnelVortex:


The most memorable storm was Humberto.
Who?
Quoting 252. BahaHurican:
Who?
For me it was Andrea, but that all depends on where you live. ;)
Quoting 246. auburn:
No monomania....as in "I was right I am always right"on every post you make..if you was right on something that's fine..no need to say over and over on the Drs blog...I will ban for this without hesitation...Thanks!

Only took four months. :)
Quoting 252. BahaHurican:
Who?


This guy. Remember him?



The most impressive storm of the year. And it was only a Cat 1. Sad.
Weather here today has veered wildly between clear and sunny and overcast and rainy, but always windy... Definitely the feel of a cold front moving through adding to the prospects of winter approaching...

And hiya, KOTG... cold enough for ya yet???

:o)

Quoting 251. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
evening all hello baha
Wuzup Keep.
Quoting 256. FunnelVortex:


This guy. Remember him?



The most impressive storm of the year. And it was only a Cat 1. Sad.
Geez... it's really sad when one can only remember the "most impressive storm of the year" after one is show an ID card....

Pitiful season....

Ya'll realize the country most impacted by ATL TCs this year may actually be the CVIs??? Only possible challenger is MX....


Anyway, Haiyan appears to unfortunately be heading toward a highly populated area as a high end category 4 storm, and will will likely cause destruction. This year has been pretty good so far in little loss of life, but that will clearly not always be the case.
Keeper, when are you going to open up that gate and the let the weather come thru?
Quoting 259. BahaHurican:
Geez... it's really sad when one can only remember the "most impressive storm of the year" after one is show an ID card....

Pitiful season....

Ya'll realize the country most impacted by ATL TCs this year may actually be the CVIs??? Only possible challenger is MX....


Let's hope for better luck next season.
SS093 and others who contended that this season would never take wings deserve credit. There are a few who predicted it and did it with credible scientific thinking and modeled respect while doing so. SS093 on the other hand was contentious, attacking, rude, and modeled a high level of "look at me." This went on throughout the entirety of the season. Big thumbs up to the moderators who will not allow this badgering and obnoxious behavior to continue. To the others who predicted a stalled season throughout, good job; I was wrong, and as an enthusiast who still has a lot to learn, I am not surprised. My neighbors may think it strange that I'm constantly cooking crow on the grill, but it is what it is. I'm hoping to be right at least a few times next year, crow really sucks and my county is running low on the bird.
We will see next year if 2013 was a transition to quieter seasons or land bound canes. I'm going to boldly go out on a limb and say we are finished with the 2010-2012 recurve seasons and that 2013 was indeed the transitioning year. Some might go with quieter seasons ahead, but I am not entirely sold on that until I see 2 more seasons like this that are non-El Nino years. 2014's steering may be similar to '98, '04, '07, or '08.
Quoting 253. GTstormChaserCaleb:
For me it was Andrea, but that all depends on where you live. ;)
Love your avatar, where did say you lived.
266. beell
I was right...in not making pre-season, mid-season, and end-season forecasts. One AOI at a time.

Yeah, no guts, no glory.
I hope the winter will not be hot.
Wow not even a Western Caribbean storm this year. Isn't this striking to you all? Was it more of the fact that the healthy TW's that emerged off of Africa and became entrenched in SAL failed to make the trek across as they fizzled out before getting near the Caribbean or the fact that the TUTT provided strong southwesterly shear or a combo of both?

Quoting 254. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Only took four months. :)


Thanks for the love ;)
WxSouth on facebook is saying with the pacific warming we could be in for a wild winter
Quoting 260. Hurricane614:


Anyway, Haiyan appears to unfortunately be heading toward a highly populated area as a high end category 4 storm, and will will likely cause destruction. This year has been pretty good so far in little loss of life, but that will clearly not always be the case.


yep... remember when Phailin was a day away from landing and people said this could be one the worst disasters ever
Quoting 262. FunnelVortex:


Let's hope for better luck next season.
Hear hear. I have no problem with a 2006 type season if we would only just get a few majors to look at out in the deep blue... especially if none of them actually bother Bermuda or Nova Scotia....
I would still monitor the area SE of Jamaica for "possible" development , at least a TD, it has maintained a closed circulation for a few days, conditions have become considerably more favorable, though not ideal and some some convection is starting to pop around the LLC for the first time. "Dodges the left crosses and right upper cuts" :)) j/k.
We need a late season surprise to wake up this blog.
I also do think if we get an El Nino next year it will be more active than this season and we will get major hurricanes. Refer to 1997, 2002, 2006, and 2009.

Quoting 270. tramp96:
WxSouth on facebook is saying with the pacific warming we could be in for a wild winter
I think we are well on our way to an El Nino the atmospheric conditions this season in the Atlantic behaved like an El Nino and now we are just waiting for those waters to warm in the Pacific.
Quoting 263. Tribucanes:
SS093 and others who contended that this season would never take wings deserve credit. There are a few who predicted it and did it with credible scientific thinking and modeled respect while doing so. SS093 on the other hand was contentious, attacking, rude, and modeled a high level of "look at me." This went on throughout the entirety of the season. Big thumbs up to the moderators who will not allow this badgering and obnoxious behavior to continue. To the others who predicted a stalled season throughout, good job; I was wrong, and as an enthusiast who still has a lot to learn, I am not surprised. My neighbors may think it strange that I'm constantly cooking crow on the grill, but it is what it is. I'm hoping to be right at least a few times next year, crow really sucks and my county is running low on the bird.
The sad thing is, SS093 actually had some valid reasons for his conclusions. He just couldn't help crowing about it.

[sigh]

Quoting 266. beell:
I was right...in not making pre-season, mid-season, and end-season forecasts. One AOI at a time.

Yeah, no guts, no glory.
Hey, man, u do what u gotta do... all that guts and glory hooha can keep a person from getting a good forecast...
Quoting 273. stormpetrol:
I would still monitor the area SE of Jamaica for "possible" development , at least a TD, it has maintained a closed circulation for a few days, conditions have become considerably more favorable, though not ideal and some some convection is starting to pop around the LLC for the first time. "Dodges the left crosses and right upper cuts" :)) j/k.
Oh, hope still struggles faintly in the wx-lover's chest... but faintly, oh so weakly....

[grin]

Quoting 257. BahaHurican:
Weather here today has veered wildly between clear and sunny and overcast and rainy, but always windy... Definitely the feel of a cold front moving through adding to the prospects of winter approaching...

And hiya, KOTG... cold enough for ya yet???

:o)

getting there
My 2013 numbers were 15/8/5...Currently 12/2/0.
Quoting 258. hydrus:
Wuzup Keep.
nothing much checkin 18z weather run now having coffee after the Monday madness
Quoting 261. Dakster:
Keeper, when are you going to open up that gate and the let the weather come thru?
soon

Quoting 273. stormpetrol:
I would still monitor the area SE of Jamaica for "possible" development , at least a TD, it has maintained a closed circulation for a few days, conditions have become considerably more favorable, though not ideal and some some convection is starting to pop around the LLC for the first time. "Dodges the left crosses and right upper cuts" :)) j/k.


It was weird today... windy, but the air still felt warmer than expected... I guess not surprising given the prevailing NE winds, but stilll.... I'm wondering how warm it's going to get once the winds die down again.
I don't even remember what my numbers were, something like 16/8/4 or so. Can I have fries with my crow steak, please?
Quoting 280. GTstormChaserCaleb:
My 2013 numbers were 15/8/5...Currently 12/2/0.
I had numbers up in the 20's it just never happen got half of it instead that will teach me
Quoting 280. GTstormChaserCaleb:
My 2013 numbers were 15/8/5...Currently 12/2/0.
Epic fail.

BTW, I was at 16/8/4 IIRC, so epic fail for me too....
Quoting 285. taistelutipu:
I don't even remember what my numbers were, something like 16/8/4 or so. Can I have fries with my crow steak, please?
How can u talk about eating crow with that cute little chick as your avatar....

and Snap on the numbers...
Quoting 285. taistelutipu:
I don't even remember what my numbers were, something like 16/8/4 or so. Can I have fries with my crow steak, please?



everyone had high numbers

something just did not click

big sal in august did not help then the stable lack of mjo environment took care of the rest

Quoting 273. stormpetrol:
I would still monitor the area SE of Jamaica for "possible" development , at least a TD, it has maintained a closed circulation for a few days, conditions have become considerably more favorable, though not ideal and some some convection is starting to pop around the LLC for the first time. "Dodges the left crosses and right upper cuts" :)) j/k.


Vorticity was the only thing going for it and now that is gone too.
The good thing when things go wrong and you hit the floor is that there's no other way to go than Up....

So...

I doubt, that the next hurricane season, can beat this one... in passiveness
Quoting 224. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Isn't everyone?

Officially, but not accurately, an EF-3.
haha yeah I see some debate in the community of this topic but if its officially we should refer it as an EF3 not 5,might confuse people.
Does anybody think that an "unknown" factor besides dry air, shear, and stable air could have affected this season's storm formation?
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 NOV 2013 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 6:40:41 N Lon : 146:12:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 971.1mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.0 3.8

Center Temp : -78.9C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 52km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 10.7 degrees

Quoting 293. sdswwwe:
Does anybody think that an "unknown" factor besides dry air, shear, and stable air could have affected this season's storm formation?


Me. I still believe that there is lot we do not know about the weather. That there are factors we haven't found or variables we cannot account for.

Otherwise, the season would have been active as predicted.
ummmmm..... WOW So fast. Definite RI going on here.

We're complaining now about the lack of hurricanes and strong storms.I just hope at this time next year we aren't talking about the opposite...
Quoting Dakster:


Me. I still believe that there is lot we do not know about the weather. That there are factors we haven't found or variables we cannot account for.

Otherwise, the season would have been active as predicted.

I concur
Quoting 296. Dakster:


Me. I still believe that there is lot we do not know about the weather. That there are factors we haven't found or variables we cannot account for.

Otherwise, the season would have been active as predicted.


So does that mean you believe that dry air, shear, and stability were normal this season? Or perhaps slightly abnormal but not nearly the full picture?
Quoting 297. AussieStorm:
ummmmm..... WOW So fast. Definite RI going on here.

yeah it will likely be a strong storm


Quoting 268. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Wow not even a Western Caribbean storm this year. Isn't this striking to you all? Was it more of the fact that the healthy TW's that emerged off of Africa and became entrenched in SAL failed to make the trek across as they fizzled out before getting near the Caribbean or the fact that the TUTT provided strong southwesterly shear or a combo of both?

The Ghost of Karin and Andrea at least brought us some drought busting rain..
We might have another BoB crosser. TD 30W.
RIP RIP RIP and RIP the 2013 Atlantic "hurricane" season :(
Gary Kubiak suffered mini-stroke during Houston Texans' game!!!!
Houston Texans coach Gary Kubiak suffered a transient ischemic attack, also known as a mini stroke, when he collapsed on the field during halftime of Sunday night's 27-24 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport reported Monday, per a source in contact with Kubiak. It is treatable, which seems to be the reason for the optimism when you talk to the Texans," Rapoport said Monday night on NFL Network's "NFL Total Access." After he collapsed, Kubiak, 52, was taken to a local hospital and admitted overnight. He underwent what the Texans described Monday as a "battery of tests" and remained in the hospital. According to the team, Kubiak felt dizzy and light-headed, causing him to stop and kneel down as he made his way off the sideline for halftime.

lets hope Gary Kubiak feel better soon!!
While yes, the hurricane season was boring and it didn't seem to amount to much, lets just remember that the area of Mexico around the BOC got hammered this year. Yes, most of the deaths in Mexico were attributed to Manuel but the other storms (EX: Fernand, Ingrid) also caused some damage to the area and they couldn't get a break.
Quoting 302. washingtonian115:
The Ghost of Karin and Andrea at least brought us some drought busting rain..
Karen was a bust, the GFS busted Karen's forecast, but it could be worst and be like the GEM or FIM that wants to blow every system up. The models were a bust. Overall the season was a bust. And that my friends is the cold hard truth, took me a while to come to that realization, but let this be a lesson learned, take pre-season forecasts with a grain of salt.


sim reflect precip hr 51 grt lakes ne region
Quoting 300. sdswwwe:


So does that mean you believe that dry air, shear, and stability were normal this season? Or perhaps slightly abnormal but not nearly the full picture?


I mean that predictions for those and other atmospheric conditions to be conducive for an active season didn't happen. I can't tell you "why" - I don't think anyone knows the why. We use things like AMO, MJO, ENSO, TCHP, SHEAR and others to help us, but it isn't the complete picture. (Obviously and of course in my opinion) Granted, I'm not a MET - just a self-educated blogger.

Look at this way, even the NHC will tell you they have little skill in predicting the strength of a cyclone and the rate of intensity. This year, they would predict cyclogensis and it wouldn't happen - much to the frustration of wunderbloggers here.

And washy - yeah - you aint kidding. It would suck praying for the season to end by candle-light and/or generator running in the background.
Typhoon Haiyan:

Quoting 284. BahaHurican:
It was weird today... windy, but the air still felt warmer than expected... I guess not surprising given the prevailing NE winds, but stilll.... I'm wondering how warm it's going to get once the winds die down again.


it was cold in miami today! I was wearing my hoodie even though it was 80 degrees. Shows I have definitely acquired Bahamian characteristics lol
Quoting 306. Doppler22:
While yes, the hurricane season was boring and it didn't seem to amount to much, lets just remember that the area of Mexico around the BOC got hammered this year. Yes, most of the deaths in Mexico were attributed to Manuel but the other storms (EX: Fernand, Ingrid) also caused some damage to the area and they couldn't get a break.
While Ingrid caused some damage, in any given year other than 2013 any other notorious storm of that season would have overshadowed Ingrid. This season was pathetic to say the least. Even 1997 was more exciting. LOL

Quoting 311. Thrawst:


it was cold in miami today! I was wearing my hoodie even though it was 80 degrees. Shows I have definitely acquired Bahamian characteristics lol


Yep, just wait till we hit the 70's in the dead of winter.
Quoting 312. GTstormChaserCaleb:
While Ingrid caused some damage, in any given year other than 2013 any other notorious storm of that season would have overshadowed Ingrid. This season was pathetic to say the least. Even 1997 was more exciting. LOL


Yeah I know Ingrid wasn't all powerful and stuff... I was just saying that Mexico was brutally hammered this year.
Quoting 310. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Typhoon Haiyan:



Fixed it for you.

Edit. I see you fixed it already. :P
Quoting 312. GTstormChaserCaleb:
While Ingrid caused some damage, in any given year other than 2013 any other notorious storm of that season would have overshadowed Ingrid. This season was pathetic to say the least. Even 1997 was more exciting. LOL

Let's just hope 2014 isn't a repeat of 2004.Floridians wouldn't like that.
Quoting 315. GTstormChaserCaleb:


Fixed it for you.


What'd you fix? I don't see a difference.
Quoting 293. sdswwwe:
Does anybody think that an "unknown" factor besides dry air, shear, and stable air could have affected this season's storm formation?
I could go for that, except I'd prefer it was "previously unknown", so that we could know what it is... I see the dry air, the stable air... I want to know what was different this year to cause it.

At least back in 2010 we had that Russian death ridge thing...
Quoting 317. washingtonian115:
Let's just hope 2014 isn't a repeat of 2004.Floridians wouldn't like that.


I liked 2005 even less.
My two storms of the year , were Andrea , and Ingrid ! Maybe we get Melissa , and she get added to that list ? 2014 will be more active than this year , despite El Niño , it has to be .
Quoting 318. TropicalAnalystwx13:

What'd you fix? I don't see a difference.
Your image wasn't showing up because of the security coding from the NAVY website. But I guess you figured it out just take the "s" off of https.
Quoting 321. EyEtoEyE:
My two storms of the year , were Andrea , and Ingrid ! Maybe we get Melissa , and she get added to that list ? 2014 will be more active than this year , despite El Niño , it has to be .


What I think is that this year wasn't necessarily nonactive, but the storms were just all weak and ugly, quantity over quality this year.
Quoting 320. Dakster:


I liked 2005 even less.
2005 was the icing on the cake with the cherry on top.2004 and 2005 were double trouble fo'sho.
Quoting 311. Thrawst:


it was cold in miami today! I was wearing my hoodie even though it was 80 degrees. Shows I have definitely acquired Bahamian characteristics lol
Not at all surprised... lol... u have sand in u shoes now, boy....

I felt weird because even with the wind blowing it didn't feel precisely cold... but most definitely an improvement over this time last month. I'm just hoping we don't have a serious warming trend any time this month. 80 degree highs sound pretty good about now....
Quoting 322. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Your image wasn't showing up because of the security coding from the NAVY website. But I guess you figured it out just take the "s" off of https.

Yeah, I always have to double check before posting. I'm not sure why Wunderground doesn't allow https.
Quoting 324. washingtonian115:
2005 was the icing on the cake with the cherry on top.2004 and 2005 were double trouble fo'sho.
If your house was spared in 2004 and 2005 and you live in FL. consider yourself lucky.
Quoting 314. Doppler22:

Yeah I know Ingrid wasn't all powerful and stuff... I was just saying that Mexico was brutally hammered this year.
More relentlessly than brutally....

Quoting 317. washingtonian115:
Let's just hope 2014 isn't a repeat of 2004.Floridians wouldn't like that.
Neither would Bahamians.



Quoting 327. GTstormChaserCaleb:
If your house was spared in 2004 and 2005 and you lived in FL. consider yourself lucky.
Florida was definitely a bad place to be during those years and so was the gulf coast.The atlantic right now thankfully is a far cry from those two seasons.
Quoting 305. hurricanes2018:
Gary Kubiak suffered mini-stroke during Houston Texans' game!!!!
Houston Texans coach Gary Kubiak suffered a transient ischemic attack, also known as a mini stroke, when he collapsed on the field during halftime of Sunday night's 27-24 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport reported Monday, per a source in contact with Kubiak. It is treatable, which seems to be the reason for the optimism when you talk to the Texans," Rapoport said Monday night on NFL Network's "NFL Total Access." After he collapsed, Kubiak, 52, was taken to a local hospital and admitted overnight. He underwent what the Texans described Monday as a "battery of tests" and remained in the hospital. According to the team, Kubiak felt dizzy and light-headed, causing him to stop and kneel down as he made his way off the sideline for halftime.

lets hope Gary Kubiak feel better soon!!
There is a reason that people from all over the world still come to Texas to get their tickers wound. Houston and Dallas still have standing as the center of the world in that field.
Quoting 323. Hurricane614:


What I think is that this year wasn't necessarily nonactive, but the storms were just all weak and ugly, quantity over quality this year.
Washi, I think it was you saying this season was going to shape up like 2011 or 2012 with the lack of instability. I mean the number of named storms is around normal and like you said quantity over quality, since we were below normal for hurricane and major hurricane count. Which if memory serves me correctly isn't a normal season feature 10 named storms 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes?
Quoting 313. Dakster:


Yep, just wait till we hit the 70's in the dead of winter.


Gonna be blue with shivers lol
Haiyan is going to be a very brutal typhoon.

Quoting 328. BahaHurican:
More relentlessly than brutally....

Neither would Bahamians.



It's always been my theory that the Bahamas gets hit more than FL. for that matter the Caribbean Islands probably get hit more than the CONUS in general.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (T1330)
9:00 AM JST November 5 2013
===================================

Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Haiyan (990 hPa) located at 6.5N 145.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 7.6N 140.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Islands
48 HRS: 9.8N 134.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Islands
72 HRS: 11.7N 126.9E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
Quoting 331. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Washi, I think it was you saying this season was going to shape up like 2011 or 2012 with the lack of instability. I mean the number of named storms is around normal and like you said quantity over quality, since we were below normal for hurricane and major hurricane count. Which if memory serves me correctly isn't a normal season feature 10 named storms 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes?
Yes.By the time August came around I had came to a conclusion that just like 2012,2013 was going to have storms struggling against dry air.I said we wouldn't be seeing a Igor in the MDR this year which I was jumped on upon and now that I look back I can now laugh because I was right.This season proved that quantity doesn't necessarily mean quality.
Quoting 333. Ameister12:
Haiyan is going to be a very brutal typhoon.



If there is a minor silver lining,that is is moving fast and that could cause less damage as it moves thru Cebu,but anyway,it will be a Typhoon that will cause extreme damage and possible lose of life.





Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35
9:00 AM JST November 5 2013
===================================

Sulu Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 10.8N 119.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 11.2N 113.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Latest Worldwide Meteor/Meteorite News: Bosnia-Herzegovina ...
lunarmeteoritehunters.blogspot.com/.../bosnia-her zegovina-fireball-mete.Great picture. I miss my old white metal detector, especially when I lose keys.
There. Proof enough nothing is going to happen?

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
Quoting 336. washingtonian115:
Yes.By the time August came around I had came to a conclusion that just like 2012,2013 was going to have storms struggling against dry air.I said we wouldn't be seeing a Igor in the MDR this year which I was jumped on upon and now that I look back I can now laugh because I was right.This season proved that quantity doesn't necessarily mean quality.
I propose a toast to you Washi, VR46L, Pottery, Tampa Spin, and anyone who stuck their foot out and said this season was going to struggle. You all gave good reasons too. It always feels nice to go against the consensus and come out on top. I think you deserve a drink for that call. This situation reminds me of sports analysis who are so confident a the favorites are going to win only to get upset by the underdog. Perfect example was Super Bowl XXXVI. Hahaha Dolphins undefeated season lives on.
This has been an extremely boring year for exciting weather in the US. Ugh.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 040924
SPC AC 040924

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CST MON NOV 04 2013

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FORCE REMNANT INSTABILITY
DEEP INTO THE GULF BASIN DURING THE DAY4-5 TIME PERIOD. ANY
CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES INLAND ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL STRUGGLE
TO ATTAIN INTENSITY DUE TO MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY. WHILE
TRANSITORY SHORT-WAVES WILL BE NOTED LATER IN THE PERIOD THERE IS
LITTLE CONCERN REGARDING ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MOVE INLAND.

..DARROW.. 11/04/2013
Quoting 340. KoritheMan:
There. Proof enough nothing is going to happen?

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN


Quoting 340. KoritheMan:
There. Proof enough nothing is going to happen?

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
You're late to the party we determined that the season was over earlier. Seems a pretty good consensus has given in, myself included, nothing worth watching out there right now. Well I guess we have the WPAC to keep us entertained. :D
Quoting 344. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You're late to the party we determined that the season was over earlier. Seems a pretty good consensus has given in, myself included, nothing worth watching out there right now. Well I guess we have the WPAC to keep us entertained. :D


I never saw any reason to assume there would be late-season Caribbean development in the first place, lol.
Quoting 235. GTstormChaserCaleb:


Devastating aftermath of Hurricane Charley
CTV News - CTV Television [Scarborough] 14 Aug 2004: 1.

LISA LAFLAMME: Good evening. Hurricane Charley is a long way from Florida tonight, but still fresh for its victims devastated by the most vicious storm to hammer the state in a decade. Charley was packing winds of 230 kilometres per hour when it smashed ashore from the Gulf of Mexico late yesterday. It slammed the Port Charlotte area and stormed northeast to the Atlantic Ocean. Tonight, 13 people are confirmed dead and thousands have no homes to return to. Damage is in the billions of dollars. CTV's Denelle Balfour is in Punta Gorda, the area hardest-hit. Denelle.

DENELLE BALFOUR (Reporter): Lisa, this is a bewildered and battered community, and today its residents, along with the help of thousands of emergency response workers, began to pick up the pieces of their lives and their homes.

UNIDENTIFIED MAN: Oh, my God! Oh, my God.

BALFOUR: The destruction in central and southwest Florida is widespread and severe. This is Hurricane Charley's ground zero, about 100 kilometres south of Tampa Bay. Words like war zone and junkyard have been used to describe the quaint coastal town of Punta Gorda. Touring the region, Florida state Governor Jeb Bush was shocked by what he saw.

JEB BUSH (Florida Governor): It's hard to describe, seeing an entire community totally flattened.

BALFOUR: Charley pummelled the area with winds in excess of 200 kilometres per hour. It damaged or destroyed over 200,000 homes. Trailer parks were reduced to mounds of twisted metal and insulation. This one is the winter get-away for some 1,000 Canadian retirees. Ontario's Don McElroy made the trip to repair siding. Now he needs a new roof. He was in a shelter when Charley hit.

DON MCELROY (Canadian): There were about a hundred people in the centre, and most of them were elderly, so there were some scary moments during the evening, but everybody survived.

BALFOUR: Thousands of search and rescue workers went door-to- door looking for the injured or the dead.

UNIDENTIFIED MAN: Hello.

BALFOUR: While many heeded evacuation orders, others did not.

UNIDENTIFIED MAN: Why did you stay in town?

UNIDENTIFIED MAN: Oh, because I didn't think it was coming here.

UNIDENTIFIED MAN: I could not believe what I was going through.

UNIDENTIFIED MAN: Life's not fair, but God is good, that's about all I can say. I know we'll recover. We've done it before.

BALFOUR: Rebuilding after Hurricane Charley will likely take years and cost billions of dollars. US President George Bush is going to be in Punta Gorda tomorrow to examine the extent of the damage firsthand. Some are already saying it could be the costliest natural disaster in US history. Lisa.

LAFLAMME: And the most horrifying Denelle. I mean from a distance it's difficult to even compute the kind of devastation. That looks like a mattress right behind you. What is it like being there first- hand?

BALFOUR: Well it's been both shocking and it's been heartbreaking. I mean what we're looking at behind me, I'm not sure if you can really tell, but it's what's left of somebody's trailer home. And it's been turned inside-out and there are thousands of homes just like this one. When you think of the person who used to live there, it's tragic in terms of human loss. And it was also so humbling to see the power and the devastation caused by Hurricane Charley. You don't get it unless you're here. Crumpled sheet metal like crepe paper, it shredded trees. I saw a big couch wedged in the window of a third storey apartment and it's hard to imagine how that happens.

LAFLAMME: How are relief workers even able to get their jobs done with such debris and the power and communication out?

BALFOUR: Well that's true, there are no communications so aid workers are having difficulty coordinating relief efforts and getting information to people. A Red Cross worker asked if she could use my cell phone, which worked on occasion. It's also still very dangerous. There's concern about live power lines, about open gas lines, so it's a very slow and tedious job for relief workers and a dangerous and challenging one. Lisa.

LAFLAMME: Dangerous indeed. Denelle Balfour reporting from Punta Gorda tonight. After flattening Florida, a weakened Charley roared into South Carolina this afternoon. Now classified as a tropical storm, Charley brought heavy rains and winds to the state where close to 200,000 people were ordered to leave. Many will return to demolished homes. In Myrtle Beach, buildings were levelled by 130 kilometres an hour winds. Charley is slowly moving north toward Canada. New Brunswick is expected to feel the effects as early as tomorrow night. The province is already dealing with the remnants of tropical storm Bonnie. Heavy rains caused flash floods resulting in at least one drowning. Northern New Brunswick was the hardest hit, flooding homes and washing out roads.


Great article!
Let the Tropical Depression lift be excited as old man winter is closely approaching will he bring a bag of cold air and unleash it for us or will he take a vacation in the tropical paradise with beach shorts and a skim board in the Caribbean?
Quoting 237. hydrus:
Charley was a bona fide nightmare for a lot of people. Including myself.. I pray I never see anything like it again.


Me as well...
I remember I was in junior high at the time, and we were staying at a strong hotel at the highest elevation in Clearwater. The most disturbing part was when we left the hotel to bring a few things back from the house, by the time we got back from a trip, it went from 110 mph category 2 to a 150 mph category 4 just during the short time we went back to our house and returned.

Even as a weather nut in Junior high, I no longer wanted Charley at that point, I was downright scared. We know staying anywhere in Pinellas would have been something we would not have wanted to do, regardless of building strength and elevation. As tight as Charley's eye was, its likely it was going to deepen even further possibly like that of Wilma since it was developing the dreaded pinhole eye with violent eyewall convection.

If it continued towards Tampa, I speculate it could have exceeded 175 mph before landfall given the near perfect conditions for additional rapid deepening until landfall.

That's why Charley remained a destructive category 3 all the way into Polk County, it was in no hurry to stop strengthening. In fact the extended radar loop shows that Charley looked most impressive right at landfall.
Quoting 347. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Let the Tropical Depression lift be excited as old man winter is closely approaching will he bring a bag of cold air and unleash it for us or will he take a vacation in the tropical paradise with beach shorts and a skim board in the Caribbean?

With this being 2013 and knowing my luck, it'll be a boring winter with average to below-average snowfall.

Quoting 348. Jedkins01:



Even as a weather nut in Junior high, I no longer wanted Charley at that point, I was downright scared.
I would never ride out a Charley-strength equivalent storm, and I've made countless posts pertaining to my insatiable desire for hurricanes. I make no secret of that desire, but I also make no attempt to forgo common sense in favor of a quick death.
Fast-moving typhoon is fast:



Arrives at Vietnam in five days.
Quoting 334. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It's always been my theory that the Bahamas gets hit more than FL. for that matter the Caribbean Islands probably get hit more than the CONUS in general.
This is factual. The NW Bahamas has been hit more frequently than any other part of the ATL. [within the historical record, that is.]
I like how people (including myself) don't know how to scientifically put 2013 into words weather and climate wise.So we just say 2013 is being well..2013.
Quoting 303. MoltenIce:
We might have another BoB crosser. TD 30W.

"Another"? Aren't those pretty rare?
I wonder why TWC has not named the storm in the west.
356. beell
Quoting 277. BahaHurican:


Don't know if there is a positive correlation there-but I'll take it!
Quoting 190. TropicalAnalystwx13:
On tonight's episode of WeatherBrains, the discussion on the media coverage of the May 31, 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma tornado will continue for the third week. Special guests tonight are Rick Smith, Warning Coordination Meteorologist of the NWS office in Norman, Harold Brooks, a severe thunderstorm and tornado researcher, and Damon Lane, the chief meteorologist at KOCO-TV in Oklahoma City.

Show will be live here starting at 930pm ET/830pm CT
This year I only got Andrea and Dorian. Last year I got Beryl, Debby, Isaac, and Sandy.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I would never ride out a Charley-strength equivalent storm, and I've made countless posts pertaining to my insatiable desire for hurricanes. I make no secret of that desire, but I also make no attempt to forgo common sense in favor of a quick death.


Smart man :-) most here have no idea what 70kt winds are like let alone a bonified major.
Look a storm making landfall in California!.
Quoting 355. Andrebrooks:
I wonder why TWC has not named the storm in the west.




no winter storm warnings


i think TWC olny name winter storms now if there are winter storm warnings and it is caseing a big mess on the rds and its a high impact storm like at less was
New Multi Sens. Image of Haiyan,
Quoting 340. KoritheMan:
There. Proof enough nothing is going to happen?

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
Mmm Kori please start preparing my crow,remember I want a coca cola with fried chicken and potatoes.:D
365. beell


Wrong graphics!
:(
Really well defined eye in microwave. RI is in full swing.
Quoting 360. hurricane23:


Smart man :-) most here have no idea what 70kt winds are like let alone a bonified major.


Well I know what 70 kt winds are like, lol. Most I've experienced is about 85 kt.

I don't need to experience 130 kt winds (Charley) to understand that you'd have to be insane to want something like that.

Besides, my idea of being in a hurricane is thrill, and I'm afraid there's not much thrill to be had in 130 kt winds, for reasons that are quite obvious.
Quoting 364. allancalderini:
Mmm Kori please start preparing my crow,remember I want a coca cola with fried chicken and potatoes.:D


Ah yes, I forgot. I'll get right on that... and free of charge, to boot. :)
Quoting 367. KoritheMan:


Well I know what 70 kt winds are like, lol. Most I've experienced is about 85 kt.

I don't need to experience 130 kt winds (Charley) to understand that you'd have to be insane to want something like that.

Besides, my idea of being in a hurricane is thrill, and I'm afraid there's not much thrill to be had in 130 kt winds, for reasons that are quite obvious.


Charley classic
Quoting 369. wxgeek723:


Charley classic


That's like the iconic video for Charley.
Quoting 364. allancalderini:
Mmm Kori please start preparing my crow,remember I want a coca cola with fried chicken and potatoes.:D
Don't 'cha mean fried crow?
Quoting 360. hurricane23:


Smart man :-) most here have no idea what 70kt winds are like let alone a bonified major.


I've been through hurricane force winds before a few years back when we had multiple severe T-storms in one summer.

It was a thrill.

I can only imagine what it must be like when those conditions stretched out for hours on end (hurricane).
Quoting 369. wxgeek723:


Charley classic
Most people that experienced Charley do not ever want to experience it again.
Quoting 351. KoritheMan:
Fast-moving typhoon is fast:



Arrives at Vietnam in five days.


Wonder if it may struggle with the speed and may not get to that strength. But if it develops its inner core completely (which it looks like is pretty close), it may not matter. Either way, Philippines are lucky this system is moving fast.
Quoting 354. winter123:

"Another"? Aren't those pretty rare?
If it survives the trek over Thailand, it might have a fair chance of reorganising over the BoB.
*snip*

Oops.
Quoting 350. KoritheMan:

I would never ride out a Charley-strength equivalent storm, and I've made countless posts pertaining to my insatiable desire for hurricanes. I make no secret of that desire, but I also make no attempt to forgo common sense in favor of a quick death.


Yeah I agree, I wanted Charley when it was a lower end hurricane, and I still would want one today. A category 2 strength eye wall would be quite the experience, however, I would not have wanted to be in Charley, those who did get footage in Charley put their lives at risk. Again, The strength of Charley was like a giant tornado, there are videos of a horrific debris field of missiles that could easily impale a human or cause head trauma leading to death, one is the classic gas station video that I'm sure you're familiar with, here's another great example:
The wind gets insane along with debris at the last half of the video, I would imagine this was as the eyewall moved in:

There's the eye.
Quoting Hurricane614:


What I think is that this year wasn't necessarily nonactive, but the storms were just all weak and ugly, quantity over quality this year.

Well, if you only look at storm numbers, the total number of named storms was about average, but the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes has been far below average. The more important figure, accumulated ACE score, is now slightly less than 30. This not only non-active, a below normal season would have a score of of 65 - this season has been historically non-active. Assuming we make it through November without a major hurricane (and I see no reason why we won't), this will be the first year since 1994 - 18 years - without a major. This will also mark the eighth year without a major striking the CONUS, another record in known hurricane history.

Several things concern me about this season. The first is that we clearly don't really understand tropical storm dynamics. The models, in general, performed so badly that almost everyone lost confidence in their predictions by the first week in August. I have never seen so many ghost storm predictions, poor track predictions, and grossly overestimated intensity predictions. The second is that "pros" continued to forecast above average to hyperactive seasons right up through August, particularly CSU, which seemed to be reluctant to back down on their numbers almost out of pure spite that they still thought they would be right. Not one of the major forecasts have come within 90 ACE units of being correct, with CSU's preposterous forecast of 165 being the worst.

Two things need some serious work and consideration before June of 2014. The first is to find out why the models did so badly and fix or, at least, improve them. The GFS, previously one of the more reliable models, was moved to a new supercomputer platform in the middle of hurricane season. I don't know if that contributed to the decline in accuracy, but what we got out of it was poor forecasts more quickly than we used to get more accurate forecasts more slowly.

The second issue is preseason and midseason forecasts. They were all bad this year. I know scientists hate to admit this, but I think it's time to say we don't really know what will happen in October in May and stop issuing preseason forecasts until internal agency forecasts start to match up to reality. There is really very little value in preseason forecasts to begin with, since they don't really change government or personal preparedness plans, but the type of amazingly bad forecasts we had this year will rapidly undermine the credibility of shorter term forecasts if this continues. I believe it's enough to warn the public that hurricane season will come again and be prepared without quantifying it in numbers.
*Sigh*... Here we go again.

CNNnewsUpdate:
Shots fired at N.J. mall: Police are responding to reports of a shooter at Westfield Garden State Plaza Mall
Quoting 380. Ameister12:
*Sigh*... Here we go again.

CNNnewsUpdate:
Shots fired at N.J. mall: Police are responding to reports of a shooter at Westfield Garden State Plaza Mall

Shootings in America are hardly breaking news anymore; they're daily occurrences.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah I agree, I wanted Charley when it was a lower end hurricane, and I still would want one today. A category 2 strength eye wall would be quite the experience, however, I would not have wanted to be in Charley, those who did get footage in Charley put their lives at risk. Again, The strength of Charley was like a giant tornado, there are videos of a horrific debris field of missiles that could easily impale a human or cause head trauma leading to death, one is the classic gas station video that I'm sure you're familiar with, here's another great example:
The wind gets insane along with debris at the last half of the video, I would imagine this was as the eyewall moved in:


I cannot imagine a good reason why any non-emergency vehicle would be out driving around with that type and amount of flying debris whizzing by the windshield.
Quoting 377. Jedkins01:


Yeah I agree, I wanted Charley when it was a lower end hurricane, and I still would want one today. A category 2 strength eye wall would be quite the experience, however, I would not have wanted to be in Charley, those who did get footage in Charley put their lives at risk. Again, The strength of Charley was like a giant tornado, there are videos of a horrific debris field of missiles that could easily impale a human or cause head trauma leading to death, one is the classic gas station video that I'm sure you're familiar with, here's another great example:
The wind gets insane along with debris at the last half of the video, I would imagine this was as the eyewall moved in:

I lived a quarter mile away from where that video was shot. The Race Trac that was blown apart was a regular fill up spot for most of the folks I worked with. The hotel that was next to the gas station was destroyed and never rebuilt..Just a giant slab left...sad days indeed.
Convection firing around are Caribbean LLC. Shear will rip it to pieces but as you all already know I wish cast a minimal tropical storm out of it. Too bad my wish casts don't control nature.
What's up with all of those earthquakes in Oklahoma?
Caribbean-Europe Highway is open for business.

Haiyan is quickly becoming a nasty typhoon.
Quoting 360. hurricane23:


Smart man :-) most here have no idea what 70kt winds are like let alone a bonified major.


Got sustained winds of ~70-75kts during Hurricane Isabel, nasty storm.
M3.9 in Oklahoma County



You couldn't pay me to live in Oklahoma. The earth is unstable there in way too many ways.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35
12:00 PM JST November 5 2013
===================================

South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 10.8N 117.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 18 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 11.5N 111.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (T1330)
12:00 PM JST November 5 2013
===================================

Caroline Islands

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Haiyan (990 hPa) located at 6.5N 145.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 7.7N 139.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Islands
45 HRS: 9.8N 134.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Islands
69 HRS: 11.7N 126.9E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
NWS Tiyan Guam Watches/Warnings (TC Haiyan)
=============================================

A typhoon warning is now in effect for Ngulu in Yap state

A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Yap island in Yap state

The typhoon watch for Ngulu is cancelled.

The tropical storm warning for Satawal is cancelled.

A typhoon warning remains in effect for Woleai in Yap state

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Faraulep in Yap state

A typhoon watch remains in effect for Fais...Ulithi...And yap island in yap state...And for Koror and Kayangel in the Republic Of Palau


interesting model output.

Arabian Sea cyclone near Somalia.. 30W still forecast to make track into the Bay Of Bengal.. "Haiyan" still a monster.. 32W to begin forming?
Ugh...Google has no idea what I'm talking about. I'm trying to find an old toy from a local science center gift shop that I last saw at least 5 years ago. The closest thing to it is a "Madball", but not as colorful on the outside, but the whole guts theory similar. Google keeps giving me stupid responses. I thought they improved the whole search thingy just a few months ago? Maybe I should try Bing.

Random Rainbow of Haiyan:


Edit: Nope...Bing did worse. I got blog entries on madballs. *Facepalm*. This is bugging me so hard.
Good very very early morning to you guys

Current weather here is cayman is really really stormy heavy downpours and winds around 30mph gusting to 35mph
And strong lightening



Anyway I see our AOI is doing the best it's ever done

Now convection is building strong over the LLC as shear is quickly decreasing and is now below 20kts over the LLC and as I said it's decreasing







With the help of DMax between now and sunrise it should be quite a good amount of convection on top of the LLC
Heavy rain and wind here it looks like a tropical storm outside
Quoting 395. GrandCaymanMed:
Heavy rain and wind here it looks like a tropical storm outside

Winds are 30mph gusting 35mph
Very heavy rain
And lightening too
Quoting 394. wunderkidcayman:
Good very very early morning to you guys

Current weather here is cayman is really really stormy heavy downpours and winds around 30mph gusting to 35mph
And strong lightening



Anyway I see our AOI is doing the best it's ever done

Now convection is building strong over the LLC as shear is quickly decreasing and is now below 20kts over the LLC and as I said it's decreasing







With the help of DMax between now and sunrise it should be quite a good amount of convection on top of the LLC

but the nhc dropped it.. right?
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
Quoting 397. MiamiHeat305:

but the nhc dropped it.. right?
Quoting 398. MiamiHeat305:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN

Yeah but this wouldn't be the first time NHC made that mistake
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (T1330)
15:00 PM JST November 5 2013
===================================

Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Haiyan (980 hPa) located at 6.5N 144.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 7.8N 139.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Islands
48 HRS: 10.1N 132.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 11.7N 124.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Visayas region (Philippines)
Max wind recorded for the morning so far is 44mph
Quoting 399. wunderkidcayman:

Yeah but this wouldn't be the first time NHC made that mistake


...
Winds ENE 44 mph here wow!!!!!
The squall that came through earlier easily had winds gusting over 50 mph right on the beach...
Quoting 403. GrandCaymanMed:
Winds ENE 44 mph here wow!!!!!
The squall that came through earlier easily had winds gusting over 50 mph right on the beach...

Yeah
Good Morning folks..........................
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 61 degrees with a dew point of 58 so the humidity is slowly creeping back up again. Slight chance of rain later this afternoon or evening.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, traditional omelet with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, scrambled eggs with bacon or sausage patties, Apple Pie Breakfast Cakes, five grain cereal, oats and raisins with low fat milk, Apple slices dipped in pancake batter & cooked on the griddle with cinnamon & nutmeg, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
garbage can is full is blown forecast. what about yours? no shortage of wind here in e cen florida past couple days. as for the carib disturbance fitting end to a crazy yr lets hope it cant get its act together
409. beell
Quoting 399. wunderkidcayman:

Yeah but this wouldn't be the first time NHC made that mistake


Wouldn't be the first time they got it right, either.
Quoting 394. wunderkidcayman:
Good very very early morning to you guys

Current weather here is cayman is really really stormy heavy downpours and winds around 30mph gusting to 35mph
And strong lightening



Anyway I see our AOI is doing the best it's ever done

Now convection is building strong over the LLC as shear is quickly decreasing and is now below 20kts over the LLC and as I said it's decreasing







With the help of DMax between now and sunrise it should be quite a good amount of convection on top of the LLC


You have got to give it up. Nothing tropical is developing here. Where is the blow up of storms with DMax?

Quoting 407. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 61 degrees with a dew point of 58 so the humidity is slowly creeping back up again. Slight chance of rain later this afternoon or evening.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, traditional omelet with crawfish touffe to pour over it, Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, scrambled eggs with bacon or sausage patties, Apple Pie Breakfast Cakes, five grain cereal, oats and raisins with low fat milk, Apple slices dipped in pancake batter & cooked on the griddle with cinnamon & nutmeg, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!


Good Morning aislin..
Thanks for breakfast this am..
My Dr. should be pleased..
57 degrees here with 67% rh..
High pressure has dominated these past few days..
Enjoy your day at school.. :)
That "earthquake" in Chicago turned out to be something else.......... Very interesting.

Chicago 'Earthquake' Turns Out to Be Quarry Blast

The earth rattled in the Chicago area Monday afternoon, but it turned out the fault (so to speak) was with man and not nature.

WGN-TV reports that a "shot" blast at Hanson Materials in suburban Hodgkins, Ill., was to blame for what the U.S. Geological Survey recorded as a magnitude-3.2 earthquake at 12:35 p.m. CST Monday. Initially, the USGS had rated the magnitude as 3.7.

The USGS website received reports of shaking across many of Chicago's western and southwestern suburbs, as well as parts of the city itself, generally within a 15-mile radius of the quarry blast. Most of these reports were characterized as weak or light. A few spotty reports of shaking came in from the northwestern suburbs as well. No serious damage was reported.

Two major quarries operate in the vicinity of the reported epicenter. According to Google Maps, less than a mile separates the Hanson Materials site from the larger McCook Quarry, both located about 15 miles west-southwest of downtown Chicago.

Jeff May, senior area operations manager for Vulcan Materials Company, which operates the McCook Quarry, confirmed his company did not conduct any blasting activity Monday.

This means that there was likely explosives that were not meant to go off that were accidentally set off, causing this earthquake-like feel.
Haiyan is one awesome looking system.....

Beauty is sometimes deadly, however. :(

TD 30 looks MUCH BETTER this morning, however, it is running out of time to develop.

That island in Pakistan which formed during the earthquake there is still above the water. :P

It has a lot of smoke and fumes coming off of it now, however.

Quoting 418. Torito:
That island in Pakistan which formed during the earthquake there is still above the water. :P

It has a lot of smoke and fumes coming off of it now, however.



Can you post a link to the source of that news story, because I believe I have seen that exact same photo right after the quake happened?
Darn I thought it would be good by now I guess not shear is low shear ain't the problem
I have noticed that vort as weakened a bit that may be it


Awoke to a dark and stormy morning here on Provo, heavy rain and grey overcast skies, but the barometer appears to be rising.
looks like i'll have to shovel snow before work this morning
From facebook...

Johann Hoffend and Meteorologist Kait Parker are checking out the beach erosion this morning. The high winds are creating some rough waves that are pounding the beaches. (West Palm Beach)

Waves now splashing up over the wall on Palm Beach Island.
A gale warning is in effect for the coastal waters of S FL
Above average for the Gulf next week, below average precip. Cant complain.





Oklahoma quakes are 2.5 - 3 miles deep (not very) and didn't break a 4. They are very close together.


Good morning folks. Some bad weather with strong winds in the Mediterranean during the last hours in and around Italy because of a deep trough. A surfer lost his life in southern Italy.


Source. If you mouse over the captions in the original map, some explanations will appear.
Quoting 422. CaicosRetiredSailor:


Awoke to a dark and stormy morning here on Provo, heavy rain and grey overcast skies, but the barometer appears to be rising.


same here!! was wondering which direction this blob was headed?? looks like no charters for a few days:(

Oil rigs like this one long have been a feature of the Texas landscape. But for the first time, a study has traced a link between small earthquakes in western Texas and an increasingly common practice, underground injection of carbon dioxide to boost production.

Earthquake Study Points to Possible Carbon Injection Risks

Joe Eaton
For National Geographic
Published November 4, 2013

A cluster of 18 small earthquakes in western Texas was likely triggered by the injection of carbon dioxide into oil wells, according to a study published Monday in the scientific journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.


The study is the first to link carbon dioxide injections to actual earthquakes, and may help scientists evaluate the risks of storing greenhouse gas emissions deep underground, a fledgling technology for managing climate change known as geologic carbon sequestration. (See related "Quiz: What You Don't Know About Carbon Capture.") This week, energy secretaries from 22 nations and the European Union are meeting in Washington, D.C., to discuss how to spur global deployment of carbon capture and sequestration technologies.

The earthquakes evaluated in the study were magnitude 3 and slightly larger and occurred between 2006 and 2011 in the Cogdell oil field near Snyder, Texas. It was not the first time the area had experienced seismic activity. From 1975 to 1982, a number of earthquakes had struck the oil field. Scientists linked that seismic activity to the oil industry practice of injecting water into oil wells to increase production. When the water injections stopped, the earthquakes ceased.

Beginning in 2004, however, the oil industry injected carbon dioxide and other gases into wells in the Cogdell field, also in a bid to enhance production. Earthquakes returned soon after, according to the study.

Cliff Frohlich, study co-author and associate director of the Institute for Geophysics at the University of Texas at Austin, said carbon dioxide injection is the only variable that changed significantly before the earth started trembling.

Although injecting carbon dioxide to extract oil differs from carbon sequestration, Frohlich said his study could help scientists better understand possible risks of the technology, which has shown promise for reducing carbon emissions to the atmosphere.

"I'm not an expert on climate engineering, but a number of solutions have been proposed," Frohlich said. "Whether they are good ideas or not, the jury is still out. Anytime you mess with the environment, there are unintended consequences."

The study sheds further light on a category of seismic risks that is receiving increased attention in recent years: manmade risks caused by energy development that involves the injection of fluids underground, often at high pressure. The disposal of wastewater from hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, operations has been linked to temblors in several cases. (See related, "Fracking Wastewater Disposal Linked to Remotely Triggered Quakes" and "Scientists Say Oil Industry Likely Caused Largest Oklahoma Earthquake.")

A 2012 report by the National Academy of Sciences warned that carbon sequestration might have the potential to induce larger earthquakes than fracking or injecting energy industry wastewater into the Earth's subsurface. (See related blog post: "Tracing Links Between Fracking and Earthquakes.") The increased risk is a result of the large volumes of carbon dioxide that would be injected, the study said. (See related, "Report Links Energy Activities to Higher Quake Risk.")

Other scientists, however, worry the public might overlook the possible benefits of carbon sequestration by focusing on the risks. Andres Clarens, an assistant professor of environmental and water resources engineering at the University of Virginia, said he is concerned that Frohlich's study could slow efforts to develop the technology. (See related, "Amid Economic Concerns, Carbon Capture Faces a Hazy Future," and "A Quest to Clean Up Canada's Oil Sands Carbon.")

"Climate change is a well understood and imminent threat, and we are in dire need of strategies for reducing emissions while we scale up carbon-free energy sources," Clarens said. "Quiz: What You Don't Know About Climate Change Science.")

In September, Clarens published a paper in Environmental Science and Technology, a scientific journal of the American Chemical Society, that proposed storing carbon dioxide in hydraulically fractured shale deposits after the removal of methane gas. The study found that the Marcellus shale formation in Pennsylvania alone has the potential to store roughly 50 percent of future U.S. nontransportation carbon dioxide emissions from 2018 to 2030.

Carbon sequestration is currently being tested at 65 sites around the world, including in Norway and Algeria and at a project site near Decatur, Illinois, where carbon dioxide totaling one million metric tons is being injected into a saline reservoir over a three-year period.

Wayne Pennington, a professor of geological and mining engineering and sciences at Michigan Technological University, said Frohlich's paper is important because it provides the first example of an earthquake caused by carbon dioxide injection.

But Pennington said the study should not be read as the final word on the technology, which is widely used in international oil production without event.

What's most intriguing, Pennington said, is that many locations are exposed to higher levels of injection than the Cogdell oil field but do not experience earthquakes. "We don't know why," he said. "Our understanding is clearly incomplete." (See related, "Carbon Recycling: Mining the Air For Fuel," and "Out of Thin Air: The Quest to Capture Carbon Dioxide.")

This story is part of a special series that explores energy issues. For more, visit The Great Energy Challenge.
Article updated: 11/4/2013 4:52 PM
Quarry blast, not earthquake, rattles suburbs


By Robert Sanchez
and Josh Stockinger
U.S. Geological Survey officials say they believe a quarry blast caused a tremor Monday with a preliminary magnitude of 3.2 in northern Illinois.

The agency said the event, which some initially mistook for an earthquake, happened about 12:35 p.m. northwest of Countryside in Cook County.

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"It's not an earthquake," said Don Blakeman, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey. "We're pretty sure it's a large quarry blast."

Blakeman said experts believe a blast caused the tremor because there's a limestone quarry in nearby McCook.

Elmhurst police said they received several phone calls from residents who reported feeling ground tremors on the south side of town. DuComm, which handles the emergency 911 calls for Elmhurst, also reported receiving calls, officials said.

"It's freaky," said Michael Maladonado, 50, who was playing video games in his Chicago bungalow when his couch and TV started to shake. "I felt it for maybe four or five seconds. It was like somebody was bouncing on the floor."

As of 2:15 p.m., more than 600 people reported to federal officials that they felt the tremor. Social media users also took to Twitter and Facebook with accounts from Oak Brook, Hinsdale and other West suburban areas.

"We felt it come as a wave," said Jenylle Rys, an office manager at Advocate Good Samaritan Hospital's Health and Wellness Center in Downers Grove.

Rys said she was on the second floor and packing up for lunch when the walls started creaking and shaking.

"You could definitely feel it on the floor," she said. "I actually thought somebody was in the closet next door doing construction."

There were no immediate reports of damage or injuries. Blakeman said he doesn't expect any.

"Even though lots of people felt this," he said, "a 3.2 is not usually big enough to cause any damage. It's not strong enough to do any structural damage to houses or anything like that."

Earthquakes between 2.5 magnitude and 3.0 are typically some of the smallest felt by humans.
Today
Winds from the ENE at 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph
Tonight
Winds from the ENE at 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph
Branches down from last night's severe storms. Parking lots flooded too.
Quoting 419. skycycle:


Can you post a link to the source of that news story, because I believe I have seen that exact same photo right after the quake happened?


that photo is about 4 days old, so you have probably seen it recently.
TRMM caught 30W yesterday. Some very heavy rain in there.

Satellites reveal new views of Pakistan's 'Earthquake Island'
Becky Oskin LiveScience
Oct. 1, 2013 at 8:45 PM ET



An image from the Pleiades satellite shows a small island of mud and rock created by the huge earthquake that hit southwest Pakistan. The island is about 60 to 70 feet (18 to 21 meters) high and more than 500 feet (150 meters) in diameter. It sits about 650 feet from the coast.

Earth performed the ultimate magic trick last week, making an island appear out of nowhere. The new island is a remarkable side effect of a deadly Sept. 24 earthquake in Pakistan that killed more than 500 people.



Satellite images snapped a few days after the earthquake-triggered island emerged offshore, near the town of Gwadar, reveal that the strange structure is round and relatively flat, with cracks and fissures like a child's dried-up mud pie.

The French Pleiades satellite mapped the muddy hill's dimensions, which measure 576.4 feet (175.7 meters) long by 524.9 feet (160 m) wide. Aerial photos from Pakistan's National Institute of Oceanography suggest the gray-colored mound is about 60 to 70 feet (18 to 21 meters) high. [Gallery: Amazing Images of Pakistan's Earthquake Island]

Gwadar is about 230 miles (380 kilometers) from the earthquake's epicenter. The magnitude-7.7 earthquake was probably centered on the Chaman Fault, Shuhab Khan, a geoscientist at the University of Houston told LiveScience last week.

Geologists think the new island, named Zalzala Koh, is made of erupted mud, spewed from the seafloor when either trapped gases escaped or subsurface water was violently expelled.


On Sept. 26, the Advanced Land Imager on NASA's Earth Observing-1 satellite captured an image of Pakistan's new island.


Pakistan National Institute of Oceanography via NASA
An aerial photo from Pakistan's National Institute of Oceanography suggests the gray-colored mound is about 60 to 70 feet (15 to 20 meters) tall. The surface is covered in sea creatures such as dead fish and is a mixture of mud, sand and rock. It is solid enough for people to walk on. Boats can be seen surrounding the island


The new island could be the result of a mud volcano. Mud volcanoes form when hot water underground mixes with sediments and gases such as methane and carbon dioxide. If the noxious slurry finds a release valve, such as a crack opened by earthquake shaking, a mud volcano erupts, according to James Hein, a senior scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Santa Cruz, Calif. Geologists from the Pakistan Navy report that Zalzala Koh is releasing flammable gas. But seafloor sediments commonly hold methane-producing bacteria, so the possible methane coming from the island isn't a clincher to its identity.

Shaking from the powerful Sept. 24 earthquake could have also loosened the seafloor sediments offshore of Pakistan, jiggling them like jelly. The great rivers coming down from the Himalayas dump tons of water-saturated sediment into the Arabian Sea every year. The new island could be a gigantic example of a liquefaction blow, when seismic shaking makes saturated sediments act like liquid, and trapped water suddenly escapes, Michael Manga, a geophysicist at the University of California, Berkeley, told LiveScience.

Similar islands have appeared offshore of Pakistan after strong earthquakes in the region in 2001 and 1945. If the earlier examples hold, the soft mud island won't last a year, disappearing under the erosive power of the pounding of waves from monsoon storms.
Quoting 428. SFLWeatherman:
Waves now splashing up over the wall on Palm Beach Island.
A gale warning is in effect for the coastal waters of S FL


Those million dollar+ homes might get a little wet. I believe Trump has a house in there some where.
NASA Earthobservatory, Image of the day:



Hybrid Eclipse Shades Africa
November 5, 2013
Quoting 444. Patrap:
Satellites reveal new views of Pakistan's 'Earthquake Island'
Becky Oskin LiveScience
Oct. 1, 2013 at 8:45 PM ET



An image from the Pleiades satellite shows a small island of mud and rock created by the huge earthquake that hit southwest Pakistan. The island is about 60 to 70 feet (18 to 21 meters) high and more than 500 feet (150 meters) in diameter. It sits about 650 feet from the coast.

Earth performed the ultimate magic trick last week, making an island appear out of nowhere. The new island is a remarkable side effect of a deadly Sept. 24 earthquake in Pakistan that killed more than 500 people.



Satellite images snapped a few days after the earthquake-triggered island emerged offshore, near the town of Gwadar, reveal that the strange structure is round and relatively flat, with cracks and fissures like a child's dried-up mud pie.

The French Pleiades satellite mapped the muddy hill's dimensions, which measure 576.4 feet (175.7 meters) long by 524.9 feet (160 m) wide. Aerial photos from Pakistan's National Institute of Oceanography suggest the gray-colored mound is about 60 to 70 feet (18 to 21 meters) high. [Gallery: Amazing Images of Pakistan's Earthquake Island]

Gwadar is about 230 miles (380 kilometers) from the earthquake's epicenter. The magnitude-7.7 earthquake was probably centered on the Chaman Fault, Shuhab Khan, a geoscientist at the University of Houston told LiveScience last week.

Geologists think the new island, named Zalzala Koh, is made of erupted mud, spewed from the seafloor when either trapped gases escaped or subsurface water was violently expelled.


On Sept. 26, the Advanced Land Imager on NASA's Earth Observing-1 satellite captured an image of Pakistan's new island.


Pakistan National Institute of Oceanography via NASA
An aerial photo from Pakistan's National Institute of Oceanography suggests the gray-colored mound is about 60 to 70 feet (15 to 20 meters) tall. The surface is covered in sea creatures such as dead fish and is a mixture of mud, sand and rock. It is solid enough for people to walk on. Boats can be seen surrounding the island


The new island could be the result of a mud volcano. Mud volcanoes form when hot water underground mixes with sediments and gases such as methane and carbon dioxide. If the noxious slurry finds a release valve, such as a crack opened by earthquake shaking, a mud volcano erupts, according to James Hein, a senior scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Santa Cruz, Calif. Geologists from the Pakistan Navy report that Zalzala Koh is releasing flammable gas. But seafloor sediments commonly hold methane-producing bacteria, so the possible methane coming from the island isn't a clincher to its identity.

Shaking from the powerful Sept. 24 earthquake could have also loosened the seafloor sediments offshore of Pakistan, jiggling them like jelly. The great rivers coming down from the Himalayas dump tons of water-saturated sediment into the Arabian Sea every year. The new island could be a gigantic example of a liquefaction blow, when seismic shaking makes saturated sediments act like liquid, and trapped water suddenly escapes, Michael Manga, a geophysicist at the University of California, Berkeley, told LiveScience.

Similar islands have appeared offshore of Pakistan after strong earthquakes in the region in 2001 and 1945. If the earlier examples hold, the soft mud island won't last a year, disappearing under the erosive power of the pounding of waves from monsoon storms.



Geologic forces such as this put everything into perspective. Man has only been on the Earth for a blink of an eye in Earth's Geologic history.
Erosional forces wear things down. Volcanic forces and deposition build things back up.

This is Earth doing her thing without man's influence.
looks like the JMA is waiting for a clear eye to call Haiyan a typhoon. 90 knots from JTWC.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35
21:00 PM JST November 5 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 10.6N 115.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.7N 109.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (T1330)
21:00 PM JST November 5 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Haiyan (980 hPa) located at 6.9N 143.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.4N 137.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Islands
48 HRS: 10.6N 130.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 11.9N 122.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Visayas region (Philippines)
30W..

India Meteorological Department
17:30 PM IST November 5 2013
===================================

A low pressure area may emerge over Andaman sea around November 9th and may intensify further

Haiyan wrapping up. Click to enlarge.
Howling winds on Palm Beach today. Wind gusts to 35mph possible today and tonight.
Quoting 439. GrandCaymanMed:
Branches down from last night's severe storms. Parking lots flooded too.


Good morning.

It was a wild night for sure, especially around 1 AM.

Winds gusted to 28 MPH in South Sound and 2.6 inches of rain fell after midnight alone. We probably got another inch or more between 10 and 12 but I have not had time to review all of the data from my weather station. Even found a turtle swimming in my pool this morning LOL
Quoting 448. HadesGodWyvern:
looks like the JMA is waiting for a clear eye to call Haiyan a typhoon. 90 knots from JTWC.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35
21:00 PM JST November 5 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 10.6N 115.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.7N 109.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (T1330)
21:00 PM JST November 5 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Haiyan (980 hPa) located at 6.9N 143.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.4N 137.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Islands
48 HRS: 10.6N 130.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 11.9N 122.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Visayas region (Philippines)


You can see it almost completely formed right there. :)

Quoting 439. GrandCaymanMed:
Branches down from last night's severe storms. Parking lots flooded too.


2.5-4.5 inches of rain last night on various weather gauges throughout the island. Top winds recorded 44mph that I have seen so far.
ST. PETERSBURG --
Windy conditions will dominate the Bay area weather Tuesday.

According to Bay News 9 Meteorologist Juli Marquez, wind gusts as high as 25 mph are expected today with some slight rain chances across the area.

"The winds will increase this afternoon," Marquez said. "Northeast winds are bringing clouds and some isolated showers to Tampa Bay today. The higher rain chances are on the other side of the state."

Temperatures will rise to the low to mid 80s today. Conditions will be partly cloudy and remain breezy overnight.

It will be slightly warmer and not as breezy the rest of the week.

The rain chances will tick upwards by Thursday.
Quoting 451. SFLWeatherman:
Howling winds on Palm Beach today. Wind gusts to 35mph possible today and tonight.


Wow, really bad weather. Here some live streaming webcams:

Live from Fort Lauderdale Beach Place

Very impressive: Dania Beach, FL.


Screenshot.

Max winds 45mph

Rain 2-4in

Lots of lightening

Those were our headlines for the early morning
Funktop shows the eye very well.

Quoting 458. wunderkidcayman:
Max winds 45mph

Rain 2-4in

Lots of lightening

Those were our headlines for the early morning


Morning, WKC.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING.

* COASTAL FLOODING...BEACH REPORTS INDICATE SOME DUNE EROSION HAS
OCCURRED ALONG THE BEACHES SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET ALONG WITH
DUNE BREACHES NEAR WAVELAND BEACH IN SAINT LUCIE COUNTY. THE
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL ADD ABOUT A FOOT OF WATER LEVEL TO
AN ALREADY LONG DURATION HIGH SURF EVENT.

* WAVES AND SURF...STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE LARGE WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND SWELL. BREAKING SURF AT
THE BEACHES WILL REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 5 TO 7 FEET
TODAY...AND 4 TO 5 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SURF WITH A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS.

* TIMING...THE HIGHEST WAVES AND SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TODAY
DURING THE HIGH TIDES AROUND 8 AM AND 8 PM...THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...ADDITIONAL EROSION WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY MAJOR BEACH EROSION...ALLOWING WATER TO RUN UP TO THE
DUNES AND LEAD TO DUNE BREACHES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. THESE IMPACTS WILL BE MAGNIFIED DURING HIGH TIDE
AND AT ALREADY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$
You can see it almost completely formed right there. :)




JMA is probably looking at their satellite.
Coastal Flood Advisory

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
252 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013

FLZ024-025-033-038-052200-
/O.CON.KJAX.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-131106T0800Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.CF.Y.0008.131105T1200Z-131105T1700Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.RP.S.0008.000000T0000Z-131106T0800Z/
NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-
252 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS
MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY...

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED NEAR THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

* WAVES AND SURF...7 TO 9 FEET.

* TIMING...MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED NEAR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH TIDES...ST. SIMONS ISLAND 900 AM...JACKSONVILLE BEACH
851 AM... ST. AUGUSTINE BEACH 856 AM.

* IMPACTS...ROUGH SURF...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION AND MINOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL
CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR
MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE SANDBAR AND IN THE
VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...JETTIES AND PIERS. RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE- THREATENING. LARGE BREAKERS CAN KNOCK YOU
DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE TO RIP CURRENTS. STAY OUT OF THE
WATER UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$

PP


CMC picking up on a Somalia and Socotra (Yeman) cyclone.
Quoting 459. Torito:
Funktop shows the eye very well.

Meanwhile in the Atlantic..
For the wishcasters...


TS at 336 Hours.

Picked up 4 inches of rain last week, more rain on the way in SE TX
Quoting 448. HadesGodWyvern:
looks like the JMA is waiting for a clear eye to call Haiyan a typhoon. 90 knots from JTWC.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35
21:00 PM JST November 5 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 10.6N 115.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.7N 109.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (T1330)
21:00 PM JST November 5 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Haiyan (980 hPa) located at 6.9N 143.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.4N 137.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Islands
48 HRS: 10.6N 130.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 11.9N 122.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Visayas region (Philippines)

Behind as usual.
Quoting 469. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Behind as usual.


I say way behind.

Behind as usual.


2013NOV05 133000 5.0 959.2 +5.2 90.0 5.0 5.0 4.4 MW ON OFF OFF -69.68 -81.73 UNIFRM N/A 62.0 6.87 -142.47

Tokyo ADT has T5.0 but no confidence of an eye scene in the statement.
There are typhoon force winds (Dark orange or light red) evident in this system....

Eye.

The carrib is likely done now....

Only thing left that can support a TS now is the tropical Atlantic, and only if shear dies down enough to allow development.

Haiyan looking pretty good under the hood this morning.

Quoting 467. Torito:
For the wishcasters...


TS at 336 Hours.


That's a dissipating baroclinic low.

Quoting 479. 1900hurricane:

That's a dissipating baroclinic low.



ssssshhhhh don't let the wishcasters know that... :P
.
The Atlantic will be shutdown in 360 hours, marking the end of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.

Blue= Dead
Red= Alive
Quoting 468. RitaEvac:
Picked up 4 inches of rain last week, more rain on the way in SE TX

This one is shaping up to be a bit of a disappointment if the High Resolution NAM and variants are to be believed.





With most of Sonia's mid/upper moisture having moved on, it has been replaced by very dry conditions in the subtropical jet, which should introduce cloud layer evaporation and hurt precipitation efficiency.



Quoting 483. 1900hurricane:

This one is shaping up to be a bit of a disappointment if the High Resolution NAM and variants are to be believed.





With most of Sonia's mid/upper moisture having moved on, it has been replaced by very dry conditions in the subtropical jet, which should introduce cloud layer evaporation and hurt precipitation efficiency.





Also whatever does fall, most of the activity is supposed to be north of us
The battle between rain and snow:

... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until midnight CST
/11 PM MST/ tonight...
* Timing... snow continues today across northwestern
Nebraska... with the change over to snow to occur this morning
across southwest into north central Nebraska. Moderate to heavy
snow is anticipated during the morning or early afternoon
hours... otherwise snowfall is expected to be light to
occasionally moderate. Snow will taper to flurries then end from
west to east this evening.

* Snow accumulations... widespread total snow accumulations of 3
to 5 inches... locally a narrow band of higher snowfall
accumulation of 4 to 6 inches is possible from southwest to
north central Nebraska.

* Wind... easterly winds this morning will become northerly by the
afternoon. Wind speeds will generally remain less than 20
mph... so blowing and drifting snow should not be a problem.

* Impacts... brief periods of moderate to heavy snow during the
morning hours will result in restricted visibilities... to
around a mile or less. Temperatures will hover around freezing
with some melting expected... especially on roadways. The melting
on the roadways will result in slushy roads and hazardous travel
conditions.
Quoting 460. Torito:


Morning, WKC.

Good morning

30 more days till retirement from Weather Underground
JeffMasters has created a new entry.


wonder if the Montana low pressure system will be named..
Quoting 434. canelane23N75W:


same here!! was wondering which direction this blob was headed?? looks like no charters for a few days:(


Great to see another person posting from the Exumas! I have wonderful memories from the time I lived there (73-85). In fact, my "avatar" photo you see to the left was taken at Lee Stocking Island in 1981.
Good afternoon everyone. Pretty cool image of that island near Pakistan, Torito and cool image SFLWeatherman and GeoffreyWPB of the waves crashing ashore Palm Beach this morning.