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Tropical Storm Rina continues to deteriorate; close to landfall in Mexico

By: Angela Fritz 9:19 PM GMT on October 27, 2011

Tropical Storm Rina has taken a beating in the past 48 hours. Between a mass of dry air to its west and strong southerly wind shear, Rina has not been able to overcome its environment. At 5pm EDT, Rina had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was moving north at 7 mph. At 3:30pm EDT, Rina was located about 50 miles south of Cozumel. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found surface wind speeds of around 55 mph (moderate tropical storm-strength) on the north side of the storm and central pressure of 993 mb and rising. Rina's thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly since yesterday. The storm is battling a whopping 30 knots of wind shear, and its surface center is becoming exposed again this evening, which is apparent on satellite.

Wind speed on Cozumel is a breezy 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. The island has received 0.28 inches of rain so far today, and it doesn't look like it's going to get much more than that. At Cancun, winds are blowing at 8 mph with gusts up to 15 mph and wave height on the beach is pretty low.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery shows Rina's thunderstorm activity has all but disappeared, and the surface center is exposed, likely due to the high wind shear from the south. Source: NOAA.


Forecast for Tropical Storm Rina
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for Rina to make landfall near Cozumel later this evening as a tropical storm. Over the next 48 hours, Rina is expected to weaken to a tropical depression as a cold front nudges it back into the Caribbean (Figure 2). The GFS is forecasting Rina to re-intensify to around 55 mph early next week. The ECMWF was predicting a similar event in this morning's forecast but has since backed off, and the HWRF agrees. The most likely scenario is that Rina's remnants will linger in the western Caribbean through the beginning of next week before finally dissolving into the surrounding environment.



Figure 2. Surface forecast for Saturday morning from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. A cold front dipping south into the Caribbean will be responsible for kicking Rina back into the Caribbean.

Angela

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

i think the 2011 season has ended :P
Good Afternoon.
97L/Ex97L or whatever looks interesting.

Thanks Angela.
Has Rina made landfall yet?
Yeah, there's the cloudtop graph I was talking about.

97 looks like it had it together for a bit there and then, wham.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Afternoon.
97L/Ex97L or whatever looks interesting.

Thanks Angela.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Afternoon.
97L/Ex97L or whatever looks interesting.

Thanks Angela.


Look above, I'm not even sure if it's one system anymore. Even if it is, it's not particularly organized.
A time-lapse taken from the front of the International Space Station as it orbits our planet at night. This movie begins over the Pacific Ocean and continues over North and South America before entering daylight near Antarctica.

Visible cities, countries and landmarks include (in order) Vancouver Island, Victoria, Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, San Fransisco, Los Angeles. Phoenix. Multiple cities in Texas, New Mexico and Mexico. Mexico City, the Gulf of Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Lightning in the Pacific Ocean, Guatemala, Panama, Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, and the Amazon.

Also visible is the earths ionosphere (thin yellow line) and the stars of our galaxy. Raw data was downloaded from;

Quoting njdevil:


Look above, I'm not even sure if it's one system anymore. Even if it is, it's not particularly organized.

I don't know what are you expecting, looks better than yesterday.
hey looks like 97L is getting back on it feet should track simmilar to Rena but tracking further E also 850 vort has also increased pressures are low in the area and seem that a LLC is developing somewhere near 13N 80W
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I don't know what are you expecting, looks better than yesterday.


It looks worse than earlier today and it has none of the things working for it that Rina did.

again, look at the cloud top temp graph up top and you'll see at some point in in the last 24 hours it looked like it had something going for it, but it didn't hold and the tops split off in different directions.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND PART OF EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL OVERNIGHT AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND ROUGH SEAS OF UP TO
8 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE TIDAL LAKES...SOUNDS...AND
GULF COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THESE STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

X 97L looks like a fully developed Invest that could make TD status the next day... Perhaps the remnants of Rina will merge into the disturbance and potentially develop Sean.
Not sure if people read the NHC but they say near 0% on this.


looks like another round of rain headed our way from ex97L, gettin too much of a good thing now! Wonder if ex97L will be reactivated , looking rather impressive this evening!
Looks like a little split coming with Rina. Many times a chunk of energy gets thrown off when these systems break up. Looks like a bit of energy to the North of the Western tip of Cuba wants to flare-up a little.
And yes, 97L looks better. Nothing is calling for it to develop right now, but there is a lot of convection with it.

Thank you Angela.
I like your writing in the last sentence. "Dissolving into the surrounding environment". .....that's a great way of putting it.
.
Shows us how 2 storms, Wilma and Rina, can have wildly different results. I wish I had a list of all the cyclones that dissolved, or broke up into an open wave, or got decapitated, etc.
.
It would be nice to have as a counter-point to the analog comparisons we see that looks to compare to deadly or powerful storms like Katrina, Wilma, etc.
4 12george1 "Has Rina made landfall yet?"

Probably not. At the speed&direction it was traveling, landfall would still be 5to6hours away.
Another thing to keep in mind with 97, if you put center fix at 13/80, it'll be on land in under a day at present direction and speed.
Quoting WoodyFL:
Looks like a little split coming with Rina. Many times a chunk of energy gets thrown off when these systems break up. Looks like a bit of energy to the North of the Western tip of Cuba wants to flare-up a little.
And yes, 97L looks better. Nothing is calling for it to develop right now, but there is a lot of convection with it.



Notice a nice little deep convection burst near the COC of X97L.. This may surprise some tonight, perhaps a re-activation (again) later on.
12 reedzone "X 97L looks like a fully developed Invest that could make TD status the next day... Perhaps the remnants of Rina will merge into the disturbance and potentially develop Sean."


Would certainly be interesting if Rina's remnant spin were to meet up with ex97L's remnant convection at the HotSpot west of GrandCayman.
Quoting Patrap:
A time-lapse taken from the front of the International Space Station as it orbits our planet at night. This movie begins over the Pacific Ocean and continues over North and South America before entering daylight near Antarctica.

Visible cities, countries and landmarks include (in order) Vancouver Island, Victoria, Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, San Fransisco, Los Angeles. Phoenix. Multiple cities in Texas, New Mexico and Mexico. Mexico City, the Gulf of Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Lightning in the Pacific Ocean, Guatemala, Panama, Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, and the Amazon.

Also visible is the earths ionosphere (thin yellow line) and the stars of our galaxy. Raw data was downloaded from;

. I love the videos pat, and the gfs,nam,and ecmwf are predicting a snow storm but I'm not sure if it is considered a noreaster for NY city and all areas north and west even staten island where I live what are the chances of this happening
Local NC met (WRAL) is ripping the NHC on not being able to forecast intensity this year. Just showed the progression of Rina as a classic example of what has happened a lot this season.
So that means a )% chance of moisture return for Florida after Saturday.
Quoting divingpyrate:
Not sure if people read the NHC but they say near 0% on this.




.
2 days ago I said, in 2 days rina will be nearly gone, torn apart by the wind shear that was evident on the sat pics. Maybe it's time they put me on the air at the local station. I've always wanted to be a weatherman.
Quoting violet312s:
Local NC met (WRAL) is ripping the NHC on not being able to forecast intensity this year. Just showed the progression of Rina as a classic example of what has happened a lot this season.


Well, Rina was a baby of a storm. So intensity is going to bounce all over the place, I mean last evening it looked like a supercell, just a strong middle with nothing else.

IMO NHC overstates on the way up and understates on the way down. I think there's a method to that madness.

I feel like Rina's intensity forecasts on the way down have a bit of lag in them. This feels like yesterday's forecast today.
Quoting E46Pilot:
2 days ago I said, in 2 days rina will be nearly gone, torn apart by the wind shear that was evident on the sat pics. Maybe it's time they put me on the air at the local station. I've always wanted to be a weatherman.


Poster on previous blog showed images of the rise and fall of Rina. Glad she got all pretty and then fell apart before doing much damage. She was good to look at there for a while.
Quoting E46Pilot:
2 days ago I said, in 2 days rina will be nearly gone, torn apart by the wind shear that was evident on the sat pics. Maybe it's time they put me on the air at the local station. I've always wanted to be a weatherman.


Did you predict for it to become a near-major hurricane too??
Major snow event for the northeast this weekend!

If anyone is interested in reading.
Quoting E46Pilot:
2 days ago I said, in 2 days rina will be nearly gone, torn apart by the wind shear that was evident on the sat pics. Maybe it's time they put me on the air at the local station. I've always wanted to be a weatherman.


Its not as much fun as you think !!
Quoting divingpyrate:
Not sure if people read the NHC but they say near 0% on this.
It also says in the next 48 hours. Weather is constantly changing and can surprise you .
Quoting E46Pilot:
2 days ago I said, in 2 days rina will be nearly gone, torn apart by the wind shear that was evident on the sat pics. Maybe it's time they put me on the air at the local station. I've always wanted to be a weatherman.



plzs
With the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season coming to a close, although not particularly finished yet, I do believe I will start doing blog entries on the season as a whole, including each individual storm from Arlene to Rina.

One major factor to take into consideration for the low amount of hurricanes and major hurricanes is likely Vertical Instability. The lack of instability has demoted shower and thunderstorm activity, and promoted dry air. In addition, wind shear has been a little on the high side this season, and a lot of the storms have formed at a high-latitude, not allowing for much strengthening.

I do not believe Vertical Instability stays low for prolonged periods of time however. For this reason, its pretty safe to say it will be near normal to above normal for next season. We will just have to see.
2" of snow on ground at Binghamton NWS - more to come for the northeast on Saturday

Link
25 E46Pilot "Maybe it's time they put me on the air at the local station. I've always wanted to be a weatherman."
30 Chucktown "Its not as much fun as you think!!

Sure it is. Ya can make wild guesses about the weather and be adored by the public for the 1outta100 times ya beat the NWS.
And the 99times ya get beat by the NWS will be forgotten the way Vegas got built : billions of $$$ spent on construction&operation of casinos, all funded by folks who "broke even" or "came out a little ahead".
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It also says in the next 48 hours. Weather is constantly changing and can surprise you .


Well, the former 97L doesn't have 48 hours before it hits land, so in that sense they're right. There could always be some breakoff element of it that develops, and then they can be right twice!
Ok. Is it safe for me to *poof* Rina yet?

I don't want to be too early here...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
With the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season coming to a close, although not particularly finished yet, I do believe I will start doing blog entries on the season as a whole, including each individual storm from Arlene to Rina.

One major factor to take into consideration for the low amount of hurricanes and major hurricanes is likely Vertical Instability. The lack of instability has demoted shower and thunderstorm activity, and promoted dry air. In addition, wind shear has been a little on the high side this season, and a lot of the storms have formed at a high-latitude, not allowing for much strengthening.

I do not believe Vertical Instability stays low for prolonged periods of time however. For this reason, its pretty safe to say it will be near normal to above normal for next season. We will just have to see.
by near normal u mean named storms or hurricanes? if we dont get el nino we will see at least 13 storms and if vertical instability is average it would be quite a season
X97L may not hit land, could turn NW, a similar track of Rina.. What could happen is that Rinas remnants pulls southward then emerges with the disturbance, potentially becoming Sean. It's possible even though it's not currently forecast to happen.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
by near normal u mean named storms or hurricanes? if we dont get el nino we will see at least 13 storms and if vertical instability is average it would be quite a season

I was talking about Vertical Instability.

Quoting wunderweatherman123:
by near normal u mean named storms or hurricanes? if we dont get el nino we will see at least 13 storms and if vertical instability is average it would be quite a season

We'll probably see another above-average to hyperactive hurricane season given the setup.
AF307 has descended into Rina..
Well Rina has definitely arrived into Playa del Carmen now, it's been raining solid for around an hour. And the sky has just gone the most peculiar shade of yellow outside. Not sure if that's anything to do with it being sunset time right now but wow?!
Quoting onthescene:
Well Rina has definitely arrived into Playa del Carmen now, it's been raining solid for around an hour. And the sky has just gone the most peculiar shade of yellow outside. Not sure if that's anything to do with it being sunset time right now but wow?!

I bet you guys are happy it is 45 kt. (55 mph) weaker than what it was expected to be (Category 3 hurricane).
Quoting E46Pilot:
2 days ago I said, in 2 days rina will be nearly gone, torn apart by the wind shear that was evident on the sat pics. Maybe it's time they put me on the air at the local station. I've always wanted to be a weatherman.
I called it a dog when it was still a puppy!
What happened to all the posts from earlier today? Are they all removed when a blog update is made?

Reeedzone, I know you've been hoping that Rina/97L were going to become something over the past week, but I think it's time to give up on them now. The satellite and radar pics look like typical disorganized areas of tropical thunderstorms. With the dry air and shear in the GOM, I don't think either of them are going anywhere.
Quoting reedzone:


Notice a nice little deep convection burst near the COC of X97L.. This may surprise some tonight, perhaps a re-activation (again) later on.


RE: Earlier post. Nah, I was not trying to give you a hard time. I like that you stick to your guns and go out on a limb. Most around here, even those considered most knowledgeable, just wait for the models and play it safe by going with the models. So easy to look at models and either throw out outliers or scan the various steering mechanisms and adopt model that seems to be consistent with developing weather patterns. You at least are forward looking and try to formulate predictions perhaps even ahead of the models. Accordingly, you will be wrong a higher percentage of time than those that wait for the models or sure things because they are afraid being wrong will lead to less credibility. Truth is, everyone, and I mean everyone on here has consistently blown forecast all year on this year's storms.
TCR for Beatriz came out within the last few hours.

Link

95mph now, still 977mb. 1 direct death, 3 indirect.
Quoting yqt1001:
TCR for Beatriz came out within the last few hours.

Link

95mph now, still 977mb. 1 direct deaths, 3 indirect.

95 mph? You mean 90 mph?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

95 mph? You mean 90 mph?


I thought 80kts was 95mph? I might be a bit confused though...
Quoting onthescene:
Well Rina has definitely arrived into Playa del Carmen now, it's been raining solid for around an hour. And the sky has just gone the most peculiar shade of yellow outside. Not sure if that's anything to do with it being sunset time right now but wow?!


It's been raining here on Cozumel a little longer. I almost flooded a couple of weeks with the last system that sat on us for 4 or 5 days. I'm hoping that Rina just rolls on through with minimal rain...
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
700 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

...RINA VERY NEAR COZUMEL...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 87.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


49 sar2401 "What happened to all the posts from earlier today? Are they all removed when a blog update is made?"

The old blogs&comments are still available. But the new blog gets a new entrynum= in its address.
And the old blog-with-comments gets put into the WUnderground Archive. Just click on one of the 'ViewComments'links there to see the accompanying comments.
Pre 98L is 10%
Ex 97L is 10%
Sean and Tammy possible
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL
MEXICO.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE BEING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 825 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
This is what they are monitoring, FWIW:

Wheres everyone lastnight claiming these would be a cat 2 storm? as i said, this was a border line tropical storm lastnight, and won't see cat 1 status again. will be a tropical depression in no time.
lol



i think we had Sean and Tammy we sould be on W right now
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is what they are monitoring, FWIW:



Didn't Jose look similar to that? LOL
Its late October for crying out loud!

Question for you weather gurus. Where is the heavy thunderstorm activity located on Rina? Just wondering how much rain the island will get tonight.
Quoting CapeCoralx3:
Question for you weather gurus. Where is the heavy thunderstorm activity located on Rina? Just wondering how much rain the island will get tonight.

Maybe this satellite image will help?

This is what we were looking at this time last season:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Maybe this satellite image will help?



Thanks, sorry I just lurk here and don't know many sites to get good data/images etc.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 23:50Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2011
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 23:39:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°07'N 87°11'W (20.1167N 87.1833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 31 miles (50 km) to the SSW (209°) from Cozumel, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,402m (4,600ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 156° at 59kts (From the SSE at ~ 67.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,533m (5,030ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:34:00Z

Looks can be deceiving, looks like Rina could be a lil stronger than earlier!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is what we were looking at this time last season:


In that image, AOI #2 became Sheri Shary on the 28th, and AOI #3 became Tomas on the 29th.
Alright I want to get everybody's opinion.

What is most likely to occur for the remainder of the 2011 season?

A. One more Hurricane
B. One more Hurricane which becomes a Major Hurricane
C. 4 Tropical Storms
D. No more storms
That Cape Verde one is pretty junior sized. lol.

Seems like they relocated ex97 and now they're saying it's going to park where it is. Well, that increases the chances a bit.
Quoting Neapolitan:

In that image, AOI #2 became Sheri on the 28th, and AOI #3 became Tomas on the 29th.

Shary, not Sheri.
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE BEING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

This is EXACTLY what I wanted to see, thank you NHC!
Btw ACE is up to 109 for the season with Rina currently in 9th place with an ACE of 2.04.
Quoting Neapolitan:

In that image, AOI #2 became Sheri on the 28th, and AOI #3 became Tomas on the 29th.

Yes, and that first AOI was likely an unnamed tropical storm.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Btw ACE is up to 109 for the season with Rina in 9th place.

Hmmm. The number I have is 115.19, with Rina in sixth place (and she'll be in fifth place at the 11PM TWO).
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Btw ACE is up to 109 for the season with Rina in 9th place.


Rina is in 6th place. If she can hang on till 11 p.m. she'll be in 5th place.

Seasonal ACE is 115.3025 on the high side of normal.

I will defer to Neapolitan for the seasonal total.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Hmmm. The number I have is 115.19, with Rina in sixth place (and she'll be in fifth place at the 11PM TWO).
Go figure Wiki is behind :-P What site do you get your figures from?
Quoting njdevil:
That Cape Verde one is pretty junior sized. lol.

Seems like they relocated ex97 and now they're saying it's going to park where it is. Well, that increases the chances a bit.


We don't need it parked where it is, we are saturated with rain here in the Caymans :(
Here is the Atlantic ACE list from Wiki with the 21z numbers for Rina included.

Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Best Track 2.3125
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 24.8375
13L (Lee) Operational 1.7050
14L (Maria) Operational 8.6700
15L (Nate) Operational 3.8325
16L (Ophelia) Operational 18.3550
17L (Philippe) Operational 14.8025
18L (Rina) Operational 8.6175
Total 115.3025


NYC is expecting record snowfall for the month of October on Saturday. That's amazing.
raining heavy in grand cayman right now just had 30 mph gusts
Quoting Speeky:
NYC is expecting record snowfall for the month of October on Saturday. That's amazing.

According to...?

Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
raining heavy in grand cayman right now just had 30 mph gusts


Yep my brother who lives in Prospect just called me to find out what kind weather we have here in South Sound,he is experiencing rain & high winds, but I have shutters on the East side of my house up, so I'll have to go outside and check, I don't like this ex97L, especially if it is forecast to remain almost stationary!
In Cancún there is only ver y mild rain and the Wind is about 20mph may be latee wil jet some more looks like Rita didnt like cancun
No change in strength or pressure according to ATCF --

AL, 18, 2011102800, , BEST, 0, 202N, 872W, 50, 996, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, RINA, D,
Looks like Rina as commenced that NNE turn according to the latest HH fix!
Quoting stormpetrol:


Yep my brother who lives in Prospect just called me to find out what kind weather we have here in South Sound,he is experiencing rain & high winds, but I have shutters on the East side of my house up, so I'll have to go outside and check, I don't like this ex97L, especially if it is forecast to remain almost stationary!
Rainy and very windy in East End too. Lots of lightning again.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Rainy and very windy in East End too. Lots of lightning again.


This is just really going on too long and looks like it could last nearly another week, I could scream for people in flood prone areas!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

According to...?



Yeah, I'm not buying that. It could definitely snow but I'd be shocked if it gets cold enough to turn into the biggest "anything".

At least around here. The hilly areas up NW might get a surprise.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Yep my brother who lives in Prospect just called me to find out what kind weather we have here in South Sound,he is experiencing rain & high winds, but I have shutters on the East side of my house up, so I'll have to go outside and check, I don't like this ex97L, especially if it is forecast to remain almost stationary!


Im in Spotts moderate rain now but your right the island has had quite a soaking the last week or so we dont really need any more. I'm sure low lying areas could flood quite easily now as the ground is saturated. But looks like we will get more with this system just sitting there also when whatever is left of rina comes back south it may enhance rainfall even more in the area we'll have to wait and see!
I'm very excited about the possibility for snow around the DC area in October. The possibility exists for an inch or two of snow in my area and I'm psyched up for it!!
Lets hope no more develop, that is to close to people that don't need the pain
It is freaking cold right now, though. Who knows, maybe this will prep the ground for Saturday and it will stick. Damn weather. :D

Going on a cruise and my first concern was Rina getting grabbed and quickly shooting across Florida and running the gap between US and Bermuda, thus cutting off all the ports (out of Baltimore)... that isn't going to happen, so instead I'll probably get the October equivilant of a blizzard for the ride down to Baltimore on Saturday. lol.
I see that 97L is upped to 10% good call
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I see that 97L is upped to 10% good call
Don't get too excited yet . J/K
The winds are picking up here on cozumel. The power keeps going out for a min or two. I have a standby generator that has kicked on twice.
101. DDR
You all think that rain in the caymans is plenty,its been raining almost everyday for 1 1/2 years here thanks to la nina.I've got around 240 inches of rain since last May.
Quoting CapeCoralx3:
The winds are picking up here on cozumel. The power keeps going out for a min or two. I have a standby generator that has kicked on twice.
Stay safe.
O_O Rina blew up.
Quoting DDR:
You all think that rain in the caymans is plenty,its been raining almost everyday for 1 1/2 years here thanks to la nina.I've got around 240 inches of rain since last May.
I know you have had a lot but for us it has just been too much at once. You've had enough to fill a small swimming pool LOL.
Looks like us here in the Cayman Islands are soon to become the meat in the sandwich... interesting days ahead it would seem!
107. DDR
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I know you have had a lot but for us it has just been too much at once. You've had enough to fill a small swimming pool LOL.

LOL yes,this rain has been a pain in the back,almost got stuck by lightning 2 days in a row this week.
hey stormpetrol if 97L develops it will track simmilar to Rena but further E than rena this will cause a bigger threat to us what ya think
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is the Atlantic ACE list from Wiki with the 21z numbers for Rina included.

Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Best Track 2.3125
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 24.8375
13L (Lee) Operational 1.7050
14L (Maria) Operational 8.6700
15L (Nate) Operational 3.8325
16L (Ophelia) Operational 18.3550
17L (Philippe) Operational 14.8025
18L (Rina) Operational 8.6175
Total 115.3025



Current ACE numbers are Rina = 8.7975
North Atlantic = 119.632

from here
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

According to...?


Look here, Interesting!!!!


Click image for loop.
111. DDR
Do the Cayman islands have good infrastructure,specifically drainage?
18.9n87.0w, 19.5n87.1w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Rina's_12amGMT_ATCF
18.9n86.9w, 19.5n87.1w, 20.2n87.2w are now the most recent positions
Starting 27Oct_12amGMT and ending 28Oct_12amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent TropicalStormRina's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 28Oct_12amGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 20.464n87.262w-PCM is the endpoint of the straightline projection connected to its nearest airport for the 27Oct_6pmGMT*mapping,
and the coastline dumbbell at 19.41n87.515w-TUY is the same for the 27Oct_12pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Rina's travel-speed was 8.2mph(13.1k/h) on a heading of 352.3degrees(N)
TS.Rina was headed toward passage over LaGloria,QuintanaRoo,Mexico ~1hour from now

Copy&paste cpe, isj, 19.41n87.515w-tuy, 20.464n87.262w-pcm, 18.3n86.1w-18.6n86.7w, 18.6n86.7w-18.9n86.9w, 18.9n86.9w-19.5n87.1w, 19.5n87.1w-20.2n87.2w, 19.5n87.1w-20.486n87.242w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 27Oct_6pmGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the previous projections.
Quoting DDR:
Do the Cayman islands have good infrastructure,specifically drainage?


a little better than it used to be we are pretty flat here so most water runs off into the ocean but there are a few small communities that do start to flood after heavy rains like this although the government did improve drainage somewhat for these areas what happens is they still flood but they drain within a few days to a week now as opposed to weeks.
114. DDR
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


a little better than it used to be we are pretty flat here so most water runs off into the ocean but there are a few small communities that do start to flood after heavy rains like this although the government did improve drainage somewhat for these areas what happens is they still flood but they drain within a few days to a week now as opposed to weeks.

okay,we have horrible drainage here,countless governments and mps have come and gone without much drainage infrastructural improvements,almost everywhere on this island floods at some point in time.
Quoting DDR:

LOL yes,this rain has been a pain in the back,almost got stuck by lightning 2 days in a row this week.
The past few days here the lightning has been unbelievable. Be careful and stay inside when there is lightning.
Quoting DDR:
Do the Cayman islands have good infrastructure,specifically drainage?
Drainage is okay as long as the Public Works Department keeps the drains cleared which they usually wait until the roads have several inches of water in them.
112. I really don't get the purpose of your posts.
Quoting jrweatherman:
112. I really don't get the purpose of your posts.
His posts are kind of like the xtrap which shows you where a storm has been and where it will be if it were to continue in a straight line from the current position.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey stormpetrol if 97L develops it will track simmilar to Rena but further E than rena this will cause a bigger threat to us what ya think


Absolutely no chance that ex 97L gets anywhere near The Caymans.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey stormpetrol if 97L develops it will track simmilar to Rena but further E than rena this will cause a bigger threat to us what ya think


To be honest my friend, I really don't know and don't even want to think of it!
Quoting njdevil:


Yeah, I'm not buying that. It could definitely snow but I'd be shocked if it gets cold enough to turn into the biggest "anything".

At least around here. The hilly areas up NW might get a surprise.


I'm in the Kingston area of the Mid Hudson Valley (90mile up the river from NYC). I was surprised that we actually saw some sleet here this afternoon, despite the fact that the NWS forecast mentioned a chance of a change over to snow/mix for a period... we usually get the skimpy end of their snow forecasts. But based on the current wording in the ALbany outlook Link it sounds like there is at least the potential for a decent early season event. Still I would be surprised if we saw over an inch this weekend. And I have a very hard time imagining the lower hudson valley seeing much of anything in the way of accumulating snow.

...just my personal experiences.
Just want to say Grand Cayman has some of the best built buildings in the world, It is not on a continental shelf, the water around it is deep, we have no rivers or mountains and contrary to what some might think, even though some areas are prone to storm surge is probably one the safest places to be in a major hurricane! We had only only one death "directly" associated with Ivan and that was due to carelessness, though I hate to say it!
Quoting aspectre:
49 sar2401 "What happened to all the posts from earlier today? Are they all removed when a blog update is made?"

The old blogs&comments are still available. But the new blog gets a new entrynum= in its address.
And the old blog-with-comments gets put into the WUnderground Archive. Just click on one of the 'ViewComments'links there to see the accompanying comments.


Thanks, aspectre, I assumed they went somewhere but I just didn't how to find them.
Quoting jrweatherman:


Absolutely no chance that ex 97L gets anywhere near The Caymans.


Well I wouldn't bet a nickel against a bucket of cow manure on it, but high pressure should keep it west of us for a few days, but we are already experiencing stormy conditions and as they " a rose by any other name is still a rose"
125. 7544
rina blowing up again and moving north she might have a good dmax is she about to pull a trick out of her hat lol could she be going further north of the next nhc plot ?interesting to see if she makes the loop back south
Hi Y'all, see that Rina, although classified as a tropical storm, is still packing a punch this evening.
LinkWvLoop
Quoting AussieStorm:

Current ACE numbers are Rina = 8.7975
North Atlantic = 119.632

from here


I like Ryan Maue's stuff a lot. But I am really trying hard to figure out how he got an ACE total of over 119 for this season so far.

I've gone back, double checked, and accounted for the first tropical storm reports which have boosted some storms' intensity.

And I still get 115.3025
Quoting stormpetrol:


Well I wouldn't bet a nickel against a bucket of cow manure on it, but high pressure should keep it west of us for a few days, but we are already experiencing stormy conditions and as they " a rose by any other name is still a rose"


Had 0.5" of an inch of rain here in savannah in just under 20 mins good thing ex 97 L isnt going to get anywhere "close" to us LOL
Quoting stormpetrol:
Just want to say Grand Cayman has some of the best built buildings in the world, It is not on a continental shelf, the water around it is deep, we have no rivers or mountains and contrary to what some might think, even though some areas are prone to storm surge is probably one the safest places to be in a major hurricane! We had only only one death "directly" associated with Ivan and that was due to carelessness, though I hate to say it!

Indeed. They also have one of the best emergency managment agencies I've seen for such a small country. Their storm shelter system is well-developed and the people tend not argue when they're told to get in a shelter. :)
I'm sorry this is goofy as heck.

...cannot believe it's for real.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Well I wouldn't bet a nickel against a bucket of cow manure on it, but high pressure should keep it west of us for a few days, but we are already experiencing stormy conditions and as they " a rose by any other name is still a rose"


I was a actually joking or pretty much saying the opposite. For the last week he would insist over and over and over that Rina was going East towards him when it continued west of north the entire time.
Quoting Chicklit:
I'm sorry this is goofy as heck.

...cannot believe it's for real.


Gordon in 1994 did a pretty good treble clef.
Quoting Chicklit:
I'm sorry this is goofy as heck.

...cannot believe it's for real.


Practically knocked me off my feet earlier , LOL!!
Quoting jrweatherman:


I was a actually joking or pretty much saying the opposite. For the last week he would insist over and over and over that Rina was going East towards him when it continued west of north the entire time.


Its cool :), he's a good guy though, just extra fascinated by the weather and hurricanes!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Current ACE numbers are Rina = 8.7975
North Atlantic = 119.632

from here

Dr. Maue takes the unorthodox approach of including ACE for tropical depressions, as well as that for tropical storms and hurricanes. (From http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/ba ckground_information.shtml: "The ACE index is a wind energy index, defined as the sum of the squares of the maximum sustained surface wind speed (knots) measured every six hours for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm strength.")



Anticyclone back over X97L.
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Y'all, see that Rina, although classified as a tropical storm, is still packing a punch this evening.
LinkWvLoop


Looks like the same kind of nocturnal thunderstorms that blew up yesterday before Rina did a swan dive today.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Dr. Maue takes the unorthodox approach of including ACE for tropical depressions, as well as that for tropical storms and hurricanes.


What about subtropical storms? I realize they aren't typically included as ACE contributors.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Dr. Maue takes the unorthodox approach of including ACE for tropical depressions, as well as that for tropical storms and hurricanes.


That's interesting. And a misleading way to calculate things.


I'm mildly surprised that tropical depressions would add 4 points of ACE.

Most you could get in six hours is 0.09, with some 0.0625 advisories thrown in.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:



Anticyclone back over X97L.


That's not encouraging , maybe for ex 97, but not for us!
I'm not that big a fan of ACE, honestly. I think a summation of the IKE (integrated kinetic energy) values for each 6 hour period would be better than ACE.
Since it's relatively quiet tonight, I think it is a good time to show a composite image of this years most impressive storm (imho).



Yasi's minimum central pressure of 929mb is the 3rd lowest this year, tied with Dora and behind Songda and Nanmandol.

Yasi's maximum 1-min windspeed of 155mph is the 2nd highest recorded this year, tied with Dora and Nanmandol and closely following behind Songda and Muifa.
Quoting petewxwatcher:


That's interesting. And a misleading way to calculate things.


I'm mildly surprised that tropical depressions would add 4 points of ACE.

Most you could get in six hours is 0.09, with some 0.0625 advisories thrown in.


The difference is roughly 45 to 50 (or so) TWOs where named storms were TDs, and it's easy to get there. For instance, Ophelia alone had at least 13 or 14 such TWOs.
Quoting sar2401:
Quoting stormpetrol:
Just want to say Grand Cayman has some of the best built buildings in the world, It is not on a continental shelf, the water around it is deep, we have no rivers or mountains and contrary to what some might think, even though some areas are prone to storm surge is probably one the safest places to be in a major hurricane! We had only only one death "directly" associated with Ivan and that was due to carelessness, though I hate to say it!

Indeed. They also have one of the best emergency managment agencies I've seen for such a small country. Their storm shelter system is well-developed and the people tend not argue when they're told to get in a shelter. :)


Tks , Obviously you either live here or have had experience with our what should I say " our way of preparing for such weather"
Quoting Neapolitan:

The difference is roughly 45 to 50 (or so) TWOs where named storms were TDs, and it's easy to get there. For instance, Ophelia alone had at least 13 or 14 such TWOs.


That makes sense.

Dr. Maue should make it very clear up front that he calculates ACE in this special way.
Quoting stormpetrol:


That's not encouraging , maybe for ex 97, but not for us!
I agree.

She's not going down without a fight.
Quoting sar2401:


Looks like the same kind of nocturnal thunderstorms that blew up yesterday before Rina did a swan dive today.


Looks like she's in dissipate-mode.
On that note, I'm catching some shut-eye.
Goodnight and thank God she's almost gone.
Rina was a real threat a day ago.
Now she's just a pain in the A.
Goodnight Rina, goodbye,
I'll see you in my dreams.
Quoting jrweatherman:


I was a actually joking or pretty much saying the opposite. For the last week he would insist over and over and over that Rina was going East towards him when it continued west of north the entire time.

hey jrweatherman its moving Eward-NNEward now don't you dare say that ain't true cause that is what its doing lol

Quoting stormpetrol:


Well I wouldn't bet a nickel against a bucket of cow manure on it, but high pressure should keep it west of us for a few days, but we are already experiencing stormy conditions and as they " a rose by any other name is still a rose"


well stormpetrol looking at the steering maps says WNW for now and with Rena and the Front will change track to NW-NNW
Quoting stormpetrol:


Its cool :), he's a good guy though, just extra fascinated by the weather and hurricanes!


I don't mind anyone wishcasting. Heck, I'm one of the biggest wishcasters here. However storms go where they want to go and if it is heading away from me it is what it is and my comments of wishcasting won't change it's path.

Btw, I really hoped that Rina would come my way ( not as a major) but I knew from day one there was no chance.

Also, we should be watching ex 97L over the next several days.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

...CENTER OF RINA PASSING JUST WEST OF COZUMEL...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 87.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
Avila is crazy, lol.


TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

RINA HAS BECOME A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH MOST OF THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN
DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY A FEW HOURS AGO...AND I WAS TEMPTED TO
LOWER THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
CHECKING THE CYCLONE MEASURED SEVERAL FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WHICH
SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER...AND THE CYCLONE WILL INTERACT WITH
LAND AS WELL. ON THIS BASIS...RINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND
THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EARLY SATURDAY IF NOT SOONER. RINA WILL LIKELY BECOME A
MEANDERING REMNANT LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF REGENERATION.

FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INVADE THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH THE WEAKENING CYCLONE
SOUTHWARD BACK TO THE CARIBBEAN WHERE IT ALL BEGAN.
MOST OF THE
TRACK MODELS PREFER THIS SOLUTION. DO NOT READ TOO MUCH INTO
THIS...IT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST WITH LATE SEASON CYCLONES.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 20.5N 87.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 21.5N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/0000Z 21.5N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 29/1200Z 21.0N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 20.0N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0000Z 19.5N 86.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 18.0N 86.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z 17.0N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
That front better get here soon to turn her back South.

Looks like Rina is firing up yet again Woody.
Not seeing what will turn her back south into the Caribbean, nor will I tonight as I am done for the day. goodnight.
162. DDR
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The past few days here the lightning has been unbelievable. Be careful and stay inside when there is lightning.

Its hard to avoid the weather in my line of work,but i try.Same here,for the past 4 days its been crazy every afternoon.
Quoting DDR:

Its hard to avoid the weather in my line of work,but i try.
What do you do ?
Quoting Chicklit:
Looks like Rina is firing up yet again Woody.
Not seeing what will turn her back south into the Caribbean, nor will I tonight as I am done for the day. goodnight.


I thought you were already gone. Good-night, again. See ya, Chicklit.
165. DDR
Small hardware buisness,work around the yard and deliveries.
That was a strange way to end a forecast by Avila. What do you think he meant by it, Tropical???
167. DDR
Has anyone seen pottery lately?
Well at least some parts of Texas got some moisture today, 4 to 5 inches of snow around Amarillo. Rain in North and Southeast Texas but nothing near South Central Texas. Good News is some parts of Texas are seeing Improvement, bad news for me not around here. That is very early for snow for Amarillo too.
169. MahFL
Wow she blew up again, a bit of a surprise.
Quoting WoodyFL:
That was a strange way to end a forecast by Avila. What do you think he meant by it, Tropical???

No clue.
Quoting WoodyFL:
That was a strange way to end a forecast by Avila. What do you think he meant by it, Tropical???


Not strange to me. From the beginning, I found it hard to believe what some models were doing.

Find a comparable. Good luck.
173. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Avila is crazy, lol.


TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

RINA HAS BECOME A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH MOST OF THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN
DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY A FEW HOURS AGO...AND I WAS TEMPTED TO
LOWER THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
CHECKING THE CYCLONE MEASURED SEVERAL FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WHICH
SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER...AND THE CYCLONE WILL INTERACT WITH
LAND AS WELL. ON THIS BASIS...RINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND
THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EARLY SATURDAY IF NOT SOONER. RINA WILL LIKELY BECOME A
MEANDERING REMNANT LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF REGENERATION.

FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INVADE THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH THE WEAKENING CYCLONE
SOUTHWARD BACK TO THE CARIBBEAN WHERE IT ALL BEGAN.
MOST OF THE
TRACK MODELS PREFER THIS SOLUTION. DO NOT READ TOO MUCH INTO
THIS...IT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST WITH LATE SEASON CYCLONES.





$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Avila is awesome! LOL!
174. JLPR2
97L seems to be giving it another try.



Did I kill the blog?
Still




and link to animation

Link
imo wcoàst of fl is going to get more wx than fôrecast 24hrs from now
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The past few days here the lightning has been unbelievable. Be careful and stay inside when there is lightning.


Fluked this shot from our balcony the other day - South side of Grand Cayman... (Spotts area for the locals!)



And this one last night about 10pm, from the same location but on the shoreline - waves from Rina rolling in...

Quoting JLPR2:
97L seems to be giving it another try.



Did I kill the blog?



No. LOL Just that a lot of the regulars who were on here late don't come on much anymore.

Quoting JLPR2:
97L seems to be giving it another try.



Did I kill the blog?

Yes..
WT heck is Rina doing now?

I dont need a surprise when I wake up tomorrow!



I'm ready for next hurricane season, lol.

Quoting spathy:
WT heck is Rina doing now?

I dont need a surprise when I wake up tomorrow!







read back a few page and you find out
I just confirmed $thousands of $ worth of perishable inventory to be delivered tomorrow,meant to be sold in the next three days!
Spathy is not happy with an explosion in convection like this!
Evening all.

Quoting MahFL:
Wow she blew up again, a bit of a surprise.
Not to me. Once this system got going, it's always been generating these remarkably high cold tops. I'm just glad for the southerly shear that's disrupting.

Quoting WoodyFL:
That was a strange way to end a forecast by Avila. What do you think he meant by it, Tropical???
It's prolly just Avila being Avila. But I think he's trying to say Rina's demise is not that unusual, including the loop de loop track.

This may sound crazy, but I think that Rina is strengthening.

Invest 97L will need a percentage increase at the next Tropical Weather Outlook...Infrared imagery shows what looks like banding features located on the northeastern side of the system, with what looks like a low pressure area taking shape to the northeast of the Honduras/Nicaragua border.



And with that, I'm out, because I have to get up early, I'm 14, and my laptop is about to die, lol.
Quoting Tazmanian:




read back a few page and you find out


Thank you Taz.
I realize that would be a good source of information.
But I work 12 hrs/day and I have just now cleaned up after dinner and am going to sleep before another 12 hrs of work.

A qualified response would be most helpful ATM.


There are tens of thousands worth of dangling breakables that would need to be secured asap(my responsibility) if the winds are going to be over 30mph in SW Florida!

Help please.
Quoting spathy:


Thank you Taz.
I realize that would be a good source of information.
But I work 12 hrs/day and I have just now cleaned up after dinner and am going to sleep before another 12 hrs of work.

A qualified response would be most helpful ATM.


There are tens of thousands of dangling breakables that would need to be secured asap(my responsibility) if the winds are going to be over 30mph in SW Florida!

Help please.



like i said read back a few page if you need yoo find info that you need too no where not going too be here all the time too tell you things if if you want too no whats been going on read back a few and you find evere thing you need too no
Plenty of time, spathy, and still most likely nothing.

Bedtime.
I think 97 will end up pushing all of that convection from Rina and all of that mess in the gulf right over FL.
Quoting Seastep:
Plenty of time, spathy, and still most likely nothing.

Bedtime.


Ok Sea and taz.

I will set the alarm a little early tomorrow and cram for info then.
97 might absorb the remnant low of Rina a nd become a huge powerful storm as it heads towards FL
Rina is dying but hasn't keeled over yet.

Does the Mexican government issue tornado watches?
Will any of the big eastern cities get accumulating snow? We have rain/snow forecast for Saturday.
Quoting Supposetobefishin:


Fluked this shot from our balcony the other day - South side of Grand Cayman... (Spotts area for the locals!)



And this one last night about 10pm, from the same location but on the shoreline - waves from Rina rolling in...



very cool heres one of mine from a few months ago others can be found at the following link

img src="">

Link
196. JLPR2
Second yellow circle, doesn't have a decent LLC.



It's just a messy mess.
That system in the mid subtropical Atlantic is worth watching. There has been development out there in the late season in the past.
we might wake up to a big fat rina
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Will any of the big eastern cities get accumulating snow? We have rain/snow forecast for Saturday.


Maybe on the grass. It's supposed to rain first, so accumulation will be very low.
Back in 1979 there was accumulating snow around DC on October 10th. I think it would be fun.

The temperature on my thermometer outside my window has fallen 6 degrees in the past 3 hours. Maybe the cold air will be a little deeper/colder than forecast. I hope so.

I like snow and I'll be missing the next two winters.
97L according to vairous data is located near 15.2N 79.8W moving WNW-NW
If things were different 97 might have been a wilma storm
97 is getting very organized look at the beautiful spital banding all the way around
do you guys agree with the forecast track?
Quoting OminousCloud:
do you guys agree with the forecast track?

of what Rena or 97L
i meant Rinas track?
Quoting RukusBoondocks:
If things were different 97 might have been a wilma storm

I think 97L will pull of a Paloma/Michelle type track
208. 7544
hmm looks like rina is pulling a fast one and dmax comingup could she surpise us and she still moving north at this hour taht front still is pretty far north of her could she be trying to beat that front and get further north in gom and then the front swiings her east all up to mother nature now imo and even the nhc cant predict whats going on as she blowing up agian all this is soooooooooo unexpected untill it actually happens stay tuned
Quoting OminousCloud:
i meant Rinas track?

kinda not really
Uh-oh.

During this unending World Series game I came across an error by Dr. Masters in a guest column on the BBC.

The guest column is here.

A quote from his guest column.

"If 2011 finishes without a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane hitting the U.S.--which is likely--it will mark the first six-year period without a major hurricane strike on the U.S. since record keeping began in 1851. The last major hurricane to hit the U.S. was Category 3 Hurricane Wilma of October 2005."


However there was a 9 year gap between major hurricane landfalls from 1860 to 1869.

The 1851-1860 map.

And the 1861-1870 map.


211. 7544
the whole flow from the caribiean to the gom all is moving north and so is rina lol almost north of the channel now dont see anything moving south do you guys
212. JLPR2
yeah...

Hopefully land interaction will stop its development.
Rina makes landfall about 20 miles NE of where I said 3 days ago :) winds though reported only around 40-50mph with a gust report around 58mph.. so far the Cancun airport has not seen TS winds but reports closer to the resorts have had wind gusts in the mid 40s range. Just rainy and windy weather.
Baltimore had 2.5" of snow in Oct 1925 and 1.3" of snow in Oct 1940.

Washington DC had 2.2" of snow in Oct 1925 and 1.5" in Oct 1940.

And I can't believe the Cardinals won! Awesome but took em long enough!
Quoting 7544:
the whole flow from the caribiean to the gom all is moving north and so is rina lol almost north of the channel now dont see anything moving south do you guys

well give it a day and we will see
Quoting JLPR2:
yeah...

Hopefully land interaction will stop its development.


looks to be moving WNW-NW no land interaction for this one so far
Quoting 7544:
hmm looks like rina is pulling a fast one and dmax comingup could she surpise us and she still moving north at this hour taht front still is pretty far north of her could she be trying to beat that front and get further north in gom and then the front swiings her east all up to mother nature now imo and even the nhc cant predict whats going on as she blowing up agian all this is soooooooooo unexpected untill it actually happens stay tuned


You're seeing the typical nocturnal increase in thunderstrom activity of a tropical system. Rina shows no signs of increasing organization and the pressure is rising fast. She's too weak of a low to penetrate the dry air and shear for more the 50 miles in the GOM before turning back south, just like the forecast track suggests. Ex-97L is also not better organized and will be trapped in the southern Caribbean with no steering currents to move it anywhere. Except for giving places like the Caymans rain they don't need, these systems are done. As far as developing into some monster that's going to hit Florida, well, now we're getting into wishcasting at its finest.
Changes in latitude, changes in attitude.


Quoting sar2401:


You're seeing the typical nocturnal increase in thunderstrom activity of a tropical system. Rina shows no signs of increasing organization and the pressure is rising fast. She's too weak of a low to penetrate the dry air and shear for more the 50 miles in the GOM before turning back south, just like the forecast track suggests. Ex-97L is also not better organized and will be trapped in the southern Caribbean with no steering currents to move it anywhere. Except for giving places like the Caymans rain they don't need, these systems are done. As far as developing into some monster that's going to hit Florida, well, now we're getting into wishcasting at its finest.
Is it safe to say we're tracking the MLC with that blow-up of convection? And the humid moisture has returned over Florida. Got some sprinkles here along the coast of West Central FL. LOL Water Vapor Loop Btw did you all just see that epic game 6 of the World Series? Man was that fun to watch! :D
Rina is going along as expected..made landfall just east of Tulum and will exit just NW of Cancun and turn ENE later Friday then Sat move Slowly in the clockwise circle. I don't see her ever going back south of 20N..I think she will eventually move NNW then back NE ahead of the next front Monday or Weds..but as a sheared system. I do think she can hold TS status for awhile if she stays south of the westerlys around 20-22N and 84-86W but once she gets back north of 22N Sunday-Mon..the shear will pull her moisture NE
Quoting WoodyFL:
Changes in latitude, changes in attitude.




Good ole Jimmy Buffet.

How fast will the shear rip the convection away completely?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Is it safe to say we're tracking the MLC with that blow-up of convection? And the humid moisture has returned over Florida. Got some sprinkles here along the coast of West Central FL. LOL Water Vapor Loop Btw did you all just see that epic game 6 of the World Series? Man was that fun to watch! :D


Sports are fixed... WS had the 2nd lowest ratings of all time so far.. they had to spice it up.. lol
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Good ole Jimmy Buffet.

How fast will the shear rip the convection away completely?


Should be soon.

Quoting sar2401:


You're seeing the typical nocturnal increase in thunderstrom activity of a tropical system. Rina shows no signs of increasing organization and the pressure is rising fast. She's too weak of a low to penetrate the dry air and shear for more the 50 miles in the GOM before turning back south, just like the forecast track suggests. Ex-97L is also not better organized and will be trapped in the southern Caribbean with no steering currents to move it anywhere. Except for giving places like the Caymans rain they don't need, these systems are done. As far as developing into some monster that's going to hit Florida, well, now we're getting into wishcasting at its finest.


There's no point of trying. lol.

It could be knocked down to a slight breeze and drizzle and people here will still find a way to justify the destruction of a major US city.

Quoting scottsvb:


Sports are fixed... WS had the 2nd lowest ratings of all time so far.. they had to spice it up.. lol
Really? I didn't know that, one would think since it's the Cardinals with such a large fan base that this would be up near the top. Fixed or not which I do believe some games are fixed like the Yankees rolling over for the Rays just so the Red Sox wouldn't make it in, it was a great game otherwise.
Quoting WoodyFL:



Goooooooorn!

I can't believe I'm still up. Looking through the GFS run before I got to bed.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Goooooooorn!

I can't believe I'm still up. Looking through the GFS run before I got to bed.



tinny
GFS at 180 hours shows a freeze over much of the deep South.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Goooooooorn!

I can't believe I'm still up. Looking through the GFS run before I got to bed.


I'm just semi-joking about it being fixed.. but it is all about $$$ and ratings.. but yeah it's 2nd lowest ratings ever... lowest was TB vs..Philly...

Only thing that will make ratings go crazy would be LA vs NYYs or even Cleveland Indians cause they never win... maybe Cubs vs Indians World Series... ooops..this is suppose to be weather...

Anyways.. Rina should hold as a Tropical Storm at least into Saturday morning.
Quoting too much of that skit is gonna get us in trouble ;)

oops wrong post quote... sorry
Having the last game on a Friday night won't be good for ratings.

And Rina was a pretty "tinny" storm wasn't she, Woody?
No harm done Scott.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Having the last game on a Friday night won't be good for ratings.

And Rina was a pretty "tinny" storm wasn't she, Woody?


Very. :)
Indeed! Night Woody, et al.
The center should be moving off of the Yucatan soon.
According to the models, it should start moving South when the front sweeps in.


Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Indeed! Night Woody, et al.


See you around, BB.
Quoting sar2401:


You're seeing the typical nocturnal increase in thunderstrom activity of a tropical system. Rina shows no signs of increasing organization and the pressure is rising fast. She's too weak of a low to penetrate the dry air and shear for more the 50 miles in the GOM before turning back south, just like the forecast track suggests. Ex-97L is also not better organized and will be trapped in the southern Caribbean with no steering currents to move it anywhere. Except for giving places like the Caymans rain they don't need, these systems are done. As far as developing into some monster that's going to hit Florida, well, now we're getting into wishcasting at its finest.

acually it quite the opposite you have nocturnal decrease in thunderstorm activity cause of D-Min however you get very late night and morning increase cause if D-max. Yes Rena has got better organized, one key factor that goes into that is that the convection is over the COC as we speek. The pressures aren't rising as fast and with the increasing convection its creating a moisture field for it's dry air protection. Shear is not that bad, I've seen storm hang on with 30+ shear, which right now rena is getting 15-20kt. In terms of forecast track according to cancun radar rena has started a NE-ENE track which is E of forecasted track which mean may start its E track earlier and it S track further E so may not even make it into the GOM

97L is much better organized since earlier today, yesterday, and the day before now starting to show some sort of spiral bands. It is not going to get traped in the SW Carib. Its moving NW-WNW and is expected to follow a track simmilar to Rena, but further E track. 97L could get trapped in the NW Carib after it sucks in Rena or whst ever is left of her
Alright fellas goodnight...thanks for the contributions WoodyFL, BaltimoreBrian, and Scottsvb I appreciate your inputs. 97L may not develop or it may surprise and pull a trick for Halloween.
Quoting WoodyFL:
That's very cold cloud tops probably around -80 degrees.
Quoting petewxwatcher:


That's interesting. And a misleading way to calculate things.


I'm mildly surprised that tropical depressions would add 4 points of ACE.

Most you could get in six hours is 0.09, with some 0.0625 advisories thrown in.



I do not use TD strength for ACE as my website says. I only use 34 knots + observations (6-hourly). My estimates of ACE are based upon the ATCF estimates which are the first-guess of intensity used for the global operational models (needed for bogus insertion, wave models, warnings, etc.) Thus, the final ACE for the season will change for every storm by a very small amount as the post-season analysis is completed and the final tracks are provided to the long-term best track.

Most of the differences occur at the tail end of the lifecycle usually associated with the declaration of extratropical status. The ACE for the season is probably within a few points of 120.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Alright fellas goodnight...thanks for the contributions WoodyFL, BaltimoreBrian, and Scottsvb I appreciate your inputs. 97L may not develop or it may surprise and pull a trick for Halloween.


You too GT. Get some good sleep. I am on my way back to sleep, too. Nite all.
Quoting RyanFSU:


I do not use TD strength for ACE as my website says. I only use 34 knots + observations (6-hourly). My estimates of ACE are based upon the ATCF estimates which are the first-guess of intensity used for the global operational models (needed for bogus insertion, wave models, warnings, etc.) Thus, the final ACE for the season will change for every storm by a very small amount as the post-season analysis is completed and the final tracks are provided to the long-term best track.

Most of the differences occur at the tail end of the lifecycle usually associated with the declaration of extratropical status. The ACE for the season is probably within a few points of 120.


Regardless, you have a great site which we all enjoy. I post your models whenever I can. You figure them anyway you see fit. I have read your articles on the 2010 season. Very informative and well written.
2am TWO 97L moving NW
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

acually it quite the opposite you have nocturnal decrease in thunderstorm activity cause of D-Min however you get very late night and morning increase cause if D-max. Yes Rena has got better organized, one key factor that goes into that is that the convection is over the COC as we speek. The pressures aren't rising as fast and with the increasing convection its creating a moisture field for it's dry air protection. Shear is not that bad, I've seen storm hang on with 30 shear, which right now rena is getting 15-20kt. In terms of forecast track according to cancun radar rena has started a NE-ENE track which is E of forecasted track which mean may start its E track earlier and it S track further E so may not even make it into the GOM

97L is much better organized since earlier today, yesterday, and the day before now starting to show some sort of spiral bands. It is not going to get traped in the SW Carib. Its moving NW-WNW and is expected to follow a track simmilar to Rena, but further E track. 97L could get trapped in the NW Carib after it sucks in Rena or whst ever is left of her


Wunderkid, I'm well aware of DMin and DMax. You usually see DMax in the tropics between midnight and 0800 local time....right about now. The COC is essentially irrelevant because she's only slightly more than a tropical depression. The pressure has been rising like a rocket. It's up to 29.41. The pressure at my house in Central Alabama is 29.87. I've never seen any tropical storm become better organized when the pressure is rapidly rising. Forget all that stuff about what's happening with a moisture field, you're seeing blow off from Rina's convection, not the creation of a moisture field. Some storms can fight off dry air and shear with no problem, but not a dying tropical storm like Rina. Her best chance was three days ago, and it's been downhill since. The rest of the thunderstorm activity in the southern Caribbean is just that - thunderstorms. There's no organization and no banding. You're confusing the large coverage area of a group of individual storms with an organized storm.

I'm sure I've convinced you of nothing, so we'll have to wait a couple of days and see. If Rina or ex-97L turns into the storm that ate Miami, I'll be glad to come back here and eat crow. If nothing happens, I'm sure you'll be willing to do the same.
Basically dealing with 1/3rd of a storm at this point.

C position is still inland NW of Cozumel. 40 miles give or take.
winds have too be at 35kt and above be for you start seeing the ACE add up on a storm
all so the higher the winds or the slower the storm the more ACE you get but the winds have too be at lest 35kt and above
night
Quoting scottsvb:


Sports are fixed... WS had the 2nd lowest ratings of all time so far.. they had to spice it up.. lol
Really? Had 40 share in STL whole series, East Cost not in everybody cries! If you'd been watching, one of the best in a long time! We're getting 11 tomorrow, sorry TX, though I'm sure Houston not disappointed! Ya'll really should watch tomorrow since Rina poofing like Rangers! I'll be in STL, 50s dropping to 40s. Calling on all St Pete/ Tampa Jupiter residents, we spring trained and TLR a native, give the Cards some love! rant over, thanks
Quoting sar2401:


Wunderkid, I'm well aware of DMin and DMax. You usually see DMax in the tropics between midnight and 0800 local time....right about now. The COC is essentially irrelevant because she's only slightly more than a tropical depression. The pressure has been rising like a rocket. It's up to 29.41. The pressure at my house in Central Alabama is 29.87. I've never seen any tropical storm become better organized when the pressure is rapidly rising. Forget all that stuff about what's happening with a moisture field, you're seeing blow off from Rina's convection, not the creation of a moisture field. Some storms can fight off dry air and shear with no problem, but not a dying tropical storm like Rina. Her best chance was three days ago, and it's been downhill since. The rest of the thunderstorm activity in the southern Caribbean is just that - thunderstorms. There's no organization and no banding. You're confusing the large coverage area of a group of individual storms with an organized storm.

I'm sure I've convinced you of nothing, so we'll have to wait a couple of days and see. If Rina or ex-97L turns into the storm that ate Miami, I'll be glad to come back here and eat crow. If nothing happens, I'm sure you'll be willing to do the same.

whatever I am very sleepy and goin bed lets see what happens in the morn and the rest of the day
by the way I am not confused at all
Can someone someone close to were Rina is located, go outside and blow in her direction. I think that's all it will take for her to dissipate atm.
Quoting WoodyFL:

So...97l is the culprit.....

Cheers to the Weekend everyone, Rina will be just a fluff ball of cloud soon.
Good morning all,

the three-hour Terminal Countdown sequence has been initiated for today's launch of the Delta 2 rocket from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

Live coverage of the Delta 2 rocket launching the NPP climate and weather satellite from Spaceflight Now and NASA HD-TV.

NPP Launch Countdown clock


Quoting AussieStorm:

Cheers to the Weekend everyone, Rina will be just a fluff ball of cloud soon.
good morning, drizzling here this morning 60-70 percent rain chances today, which is ok we need the rain...have a great day everyone
TS.Rina's_6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 27Oct_6amGMT and ending 28Oct_6amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent TropicalStormRina's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 28Oct_6amGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 20.486n87.242w-PCM is the endpoint of the 28Oct_12amGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline dumbbell at 20.464n87.262w-TUY is the same for the 27Oct_6pmGMT*mapping
but now connected to its 2nd nearest airport.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Rina's travel-speed was 8.2mph(13.1k/h) on a heading of 7.6degrees(N)
TS.Rina made landfall near 20.553n87.15w -- northeast of Palmul,QuintanaRoo,Mexico -- and
was headed toward entry into the Gulf of Mexico near the other Cancun ~3hours from now

Copy&paste cme, isj, 20.464n87.262w-tuy, 20.486n87.242w-pcm, 18.6n86.7w-18.9n86.9w, 18.9n86.9w-19.5n87.1w, 19.5n87.1w-20.2n87.2w, 20.2n87.2w-20.9n87.1w, 20.2n87.2w-20.553n87.15w, 20.2n87.2w-21.551n87.007w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 28Oct_12amGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the previous projections.
Looks like the computer models might eat some crow for breakfast....Happy friday...
Looks like we will have a hurricane in the GOM.
Keep safe Texas
Good morning, all. Enjoying the much needed rain here.
Morning all. This sentence from this morning's discussion caught my eye:

THE
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS BEHIND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

I found this quite interesting, since it helps to explain why some of the models were forecasting Rina to make landfall in FL 3-5 days ago. This is something we need to keep in mind for future interpretations of model runs where the models are sharply divided into two groups; perhaps what the models collectively are forecasting is a decoupling of the storm's circulation, with one sub-group forecasting the LLC and the other the MLC.

Gotta run; Have a great Friday! [Whoohoo! Yeah, FRIDAY!!!! lol]
wooops, Rina's hat blew off!!!
Good morning, and thanks for that information about this morning's successful launch in California, Xandra.

LinkNASA NPP Launch Blog



...Over the last dozen years, NASA has launched a series of satellites – known collectively as the Earth Observing System (EOS) – that has provided critical insights into the dynamics of the entire Earth system: clouds, oceans, vegetation, ice, solid Earth and atmosphere. Now NASA is helping to create a new generation of satellites to extend and improve upon the Earth system data records established by EOS.



hope that link works. i talked to Levi and asked him about the east coast troughing and he said its been there since 2009 september/october and up to september of 2011 and probably october this year aswell remained in place. this is why its hard to get a landfalling US hurricane in recent years.
looks like the glob will be pushed right over s fl. might be alittle water rise
Going to be a very rainy day for portions of Florida...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
700 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

...RINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 86.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM N OF CANCUN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all. This sentence from this morning's discussion caught my eye:

THE
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS BEHIND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

I found this quite interesting, since it helps to explain why some of the models were forecasting Rina to make landfall in FL 3-5 days ago. This is something we need to keep in mind for future interpretations of model runs where the models are sharply divided into two groups; perhaps what the models collectively are forecasting is a decoupling of the storm's circulation, with one sub-group forecasting the LLC and the other the MLC.

Gotta run; Have a great Friday! [Whoohoo! Yeah, FRIDAY!!!! lol]
Yep. That's exactly what was happening. The models will latch on to the strongest vorticity in the system, which may end up occuring in the mid levels
I suspect that 97L will become the dominate player now in the Carribean.
Quoting matilda101:
I suspect that 97L will become the dominate player now in the Carribean.
Hopefully nothing will come of it.
It's going to be interesting to watch what happens when what is left of Rina meets up with what is left of X-97L.
Quoting dabirds:
Really? Had 40 share in STL whole series, East Cost not in everybody cries! If you'd been watching, one of the best in a long time! We're getting 11 tomorrow, sorry TX, though I'm sure Houston not disappointed! Ya'll really should watch tomorrow since Rina poofing like Rangers! I'll be in STL, 50s dropping to 40s. Calling on all St Pete/ Tampa Jupiter residents, we spring trained and TLR a native, give the Cards some love! rant over, thanks

Troll Alert: JFVisOmnipotent and dabirds.
Quoting BackwoodsTN:

Troll Alert: JFVisOmnipotent and dabirds.
He still comes on here under different names but I just ignore him. He is very immature and disruptive to the blog.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Uh-oh.

During this unending World Series game I came across an error by Dr. Masters in a guest column on the BBC.

The guest column is here.

A quote from his guest column.

"If 2011 finishes without a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane hitting the U.S.--which is likely--it will mark the first six-year period without a major hurricane strike on the U.S. since record keeping began in 1851. The last major hurricane to hit the U.S. was Category 3 Hurricane Wilma of October 2005."


However there was a 9 year gap between major hurricane landfalls from 1860 to 1869.

The 1851-1860 map.

And the 1861-1870 map.




Mornin' Brian. You are correct, but in reviewing those years the Galveston Hurricane jumps out at me. What a friggin mess this thing, and the rest of the 1867 season was for shipping. Can you imagine the destruction a similar 'cane would cause today...

Quoting Walshy:


What a great start to the morning. *salutes

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Uh-oh.

During this unending World Series game I came across an error by Dr. Masters in a guest column on the BBC.

The guest column is here.

A quote from his guest column.

"If 2011 finishes without a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane hitting the U.S.--which is likely--it will mark the first six-year period without a major hurricane strike on the U.S. since record keeping began in 1851. The last major hurricane to hit the U.S. was Category 3 Hurricane Wilma of October 2005."


However there was a 9 year gap between major hurricane landfalls from 1860 to 1869.

The 1851-1860 map.

And the 1861-1870 map.




A nice spot. It'd start from 1861 to 69 as there was a major hit in 1860. Of course, there were a couple of Cat 2s hitting, so we'll never know for sure as hurricane antiquity is pretty unreliable.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Going to be a very rainy day for portions of Florida...br

sure will be! unless it gets sheared to smithereens before it gets here.
AussieStorm-

Awesome picture. I spent many an afternoon at the Opera House Bar soaking in that view earlier this year.



By the way.
That WS game was epic last night. If you watched, you were treated to something special you rarely see in all of sports. One for the ages.
283. eddye
could be a tropical storm when it hits fl so put up ts warning
ECMWF wins again...why don't NHC just use the ECMWF period. It wins almost every time.

Nailed the shear, nailed the weakening of Rina.
Almost gone:

AL, 18, 2011102812, , BEST, 0, 215N, 868W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 35, 35, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, RINA, M,
ECMWF wins again...why don't NHC just use the ECMWF period. It wins almost every time.

Nailed the shear, nailed the weakening of Rina.


Could not agree more. But no, they're gung-ho and infatuated with their GFS and GFDL.
Quoting Cotillion:


What a great start to the morning. *salutes



A nice spot. It'd start from 1861 to 69 as there was a major hit in 1860. Of course, there were a couple of Cat 2s hitting, so we'll never know for sure as hurricane antiquity is pretty unreliable.

Impossible. AGW has only been around since 1979, remember?
my quote from yesterday morn: im wondering if some mid level circ makes its way ne thru the next 36hrs as rina possibly decouples today or tonight,enhancing rain and wind along fl's sw coastline,maybe look out for a possible hybrid low or possible subtropical low forming north of the yucatan channel tonight thru tomorrow,just my thinking to stir up the blog!......i alsobthink that the rain forecast for central and s.fl is wrong,wide spread 1" ,2-3-"isolated along coastline
nakes swirl alert,reminant low rina now right on ne tip of yucatana,the mlc is decoupled and headed for swfl,maybe a burstof convection as it approaches the coastline tonight!!!
deactivation at anytime,no mo rina!!!
I see Sybil--our troll with multiple personality disorder--is back. Like clockwork. Yawn...

Our 10% AOI #2 way out in the Atlantic is looking interesting this morning. There's some low-level cyclonic turning around 22N/38W, and occasional flare-ups of limited convection. Just an object of curiosity...
Quoting Neapolitan:
Almost gone:

AL, 18, 2011102812, , BEST, 0, 215N, 868W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 35, 35, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, RINA, M,

Huh? Its the same as the 7AM CDT advisory.
294. DDR
Yet another rainy day in T&T.
Quoting txag91met:
ECMWF wins again...why don't NHC just use the ECMWF period. It wins almost every time.

Nailed the shear, nailed the weakening of Rina.


It's only one of the very few times this year that the ECMWF has nailed something...it hasn't done well on cyclogenesis however, as compared to the GFS. I usually prefer the EURO over the rest though, seeings it's a 4 dimensional model.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I see Sybil--our troll with multiple personality disorder--is back. Like clockwork. Yawn...

Our 10% AOI #2 way out in the Atlantic is looking interesting this morning. There's some low-level cyclonic turning around 22N/38W, and occasional flare-ups of limited convection.

What once was 97L will really need to be watched over the coming days. Could have a sneaky system form down there.
Quoting stillwaiting:
nakes swirl alert,reminant low rina now right on ne tip of yucatana,the mlc is decoupled and headed for swfl,maybe a burstof convection as it approaches the coastline tonight!!!


Yep, Rina's now a naked swirl with all her moisture heading for S.W. Florida.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Huh? Its the same as the 7AM CDT advisory.

True...but ATCF had it at 50 knots at 0600z, right? And with the obvious decoupling--the clouds are rushing northeast from the LLC as though there's a sale somewhere in Florida--the next update will almost certainly be the last as a TS...
Looks like Rina is strengten again.
Does not look good.
Quoting Neapolitan:

True...but ATCF had it at 50 knots at 0600z, right? And with the obvious decoupling--the clouds are rushing northeast from the LLC as though there's a sale in Florida--the next one will almost certainly be a TD...
,it'll be deactivated imo,no td
Quoting Bergeron:


It's only one of the very few times this year that the ECMWF has nailed something...it hasn't done well on cyclogenesis however, as compared to the GFS. I usually prefer the EURO over the rest though, seeings it's a 4 dimensional model.


Hmmm...I disagree. I even remember Katrina, and how well the Euro did with that system, and that is before the recent upgrades to the ECMWF.

Been forecasting for a long time, and the ECMWF clearly is the better model...occasionally it busts however.
Dont be surprised if Rina becomes Hurricane.
It sure looks like it.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I see Sybil--our troll with multiple personality disorder--is back. Like clockwork. Yawn...

Our 10% AOI #2 way out in the Atlantic is looking interesting this morning. There's some low-level cyclonic turning around 22N/38W, and occasional flare-ups of limited convection. Just an object of curiosity...


I hope you are not directing that first sentence to me. I ain't no troll... I'm just a weather enthusiast with a sense of humor (in which a good majority lack of).
Quoting apocalyps:
Dont be surprised if Rina becomes Hurricane.
It sure looks like it.

Lets be realistic here - Rina is a naked, low-level circulation with all its deep convection being sheared off by high wind shear in excess of 30 knots. Not to mention, the Gulf of Mexico is very dry, more so than I've ever seen (not that I've really paid attention, lol). Do you really think Rina has a chance? Come on...
Anybody in Naples want to take bets on that U-turn South from the Yucatan?

Bob
Quoting apocalyps:
Dont be surprised if Rina becomes Hurricane.
It sure looks like it.


She left her LLC over the northern Yucatan coast.
Rina's moisture on the move towards S.W. Florida.
Quoting eddye:
hurricane warning south florida later tonight


Nah!
Quoting hurricanealley:


I hope you are not directing that first sentence to me. I ain't no troll... I'm just a weather enthusiast with a sense of humor (in which a good majority lack of).

No, it wasn't directed at you.
313. eddye
look at comment 212 that wat it looks like right know
Quoting Neapolitan:
I see Sybil--our troll with multiple personality disorder--is back. Like clockwork. Yawn...

Our 10% AOI #2 way out in the Atlantic is looking interesting this morning. There's some low-level cyclonic turning around 22N/38W, and occasional flare-ups of limited convection. Just an object of curiosity...

He or she got ur attention and prompted u to comment on it...so what does that tell u? Yawn

LOL. You should know better than to just ignore and not even think or comment on anyone of whom you believe is trying to stir things up.

Stick to the tropics...or is that too boring for you? ;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:

No, it wasn't directed at you.


My apologies then.
Quoting capelookout:

He or she got ur attention and prompted u to comment on it...so what does that tell u? Yawn

LOL. You should know better than to just ignore and not even think or comment on anyone of whom you believe is trying to stir things up.

Stick to the tropics...or is that too boring for you? ;-)

plus 10
Quoting eddye:
look at comment 212 that wat it looks like right know


That's Ex-97L.
319. eddye
hurricane alley how about comment 222
Quoting eddye:
hurricane alley how about comment 222


Updated. Very disorganize if you ask me.

Quoting capelookout:

You should know better than to just ignore and not even think or comment on anyone of whom you believe is trying to stir things up.

See: irony ;-)
322. eddye
with all that red they should put up a tornado warning
Quoting eddye:
with all that red they should put up a tornado warning


Not sure if the conditions are set for tornadoes over South Florida.
Quoting eddye:
with all that red they should put up a tornado warning


Could definitely see some heavy rain and associated thunderstorms later today going into tomorrow.

Here's the discussion from the Storm Prediction Center.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST IN RESPONSE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH...AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD
ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA. HERE...LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL
ACTIVATE STORMS WITH MAINLY JUST A RAIN THREAT. WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL
VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL EXIST...OVERALL SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED
WITH TROPICAL LAPSE RATES SHOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY TYPE OF SEVERE.
I know this is a little off topic but i want to know what is the chances of Nova Scotia seeing a substantial snowfall this sunday? I see just outside New York is supposed to get around 8 inches saturday night.
It looks to me like Rina has missed her turn and is half-way to Fl already, expect to see some track changes soon from NHC. On Satellite she also appears to be re-organizing. Any one want to help me understand this better?!
Quoting congaline:
It looks to me like Rina has missed her turn and is half-way to Fl already, expect to see some track changes soon from NHC. On Satellite she also appears to be re-organizing. Any one want to help me understand this better?!


What you're seeing is the moisture from Rina. Rina's LLC (low level center) is currently very near the NE tip of the Yucatan. If you check the visibile sat. you'll see the LLC swirling over the N.E. tip (near 21.5N and 87W) of the Yucatan without any convection.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


What you're seeing is the moisture from Rina. Rina's LLC (low level center) is currently very near the NE tip of the Yucatan.


OK. SFLCAT! Thanks for the info., I'll look again.
Quoting congaline:
It looks to me like Rina has missed her turn and is half-way to Fl already, expect to see some track changes soon from NHC. On Satellite she also appears to be re-organizing. Any one want to help me understand this better?!
Thinking the same thing but to afraid to ask! lol Maybe to much shear for development?
interesting the low that is the seed for our ne snowstorm aopears to be taking shape south of la in the gom,gonna be a wet 24hrs for fl imo
There are some on here i just hit the little -(minus) button no matter what they say.....GOOD MORNING
Quoting stillwaiting:
interesting the low that is the seed for our ne snowstorm aopears to be taking shape south of la in the gom,gonna be a wet 24hrs for fl imo


rina has a similiar look like no name 2


LET'er Snow......LOL


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 OCT 2011 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 21:18:50 N Lon : 86:54:43 W


TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE
Looks like the good part of Rina is coming (the rain). Orlando south should get more rain than north. Maybe some thunderstorms. Not expecting a widespread severe weather event.

Looking in on the invest in the Arabian sea..


Latest loop here..

Pretty unorganized. Pretty high PWat..
morning ts and sky!!!!,gloomy dayy here in swfl
343. MahFL
Quoting congaline:
It looks to me like Rina has missed her turn and is half-way to Fl already, expect to see some track changes soon from NHC. On Satellite she also appears to be re-organizing. Any one want to help me understand this better?!


What you are no doubt looking at is the thunderstorm tops being sheared off to the NE by the wind. The low level center is still near the Yucatan.



Note the blob to the NE, thats the sheared mid level circulation, being blown off towards S FL.
Taz~ That's from earlier. She's back off land again. NE tip of Yucatan (RGB LOOP).
Quoting stillwaiting:
morning ts and sky!!!!,gloomy dayy here in swfl


HEY Still.....got at least 1 more gloomer coming maybe even 2......but sunny days a coming.....:)
346. MahFL
Front heading for NE FL.

What we were watching a year ago today:

Quoting hurricanealley:


Not sure if the conditions are set for tornadoes over South Florida.



You really need to change your Avatar!....LMAO
Quoting stillwaiting:
morning ts and sky!!!!,gloomy dayy here in swfl


Good morning to you & the rest. The convection is boiling pretty far from the surface spin. The more that maintains the more rain for us. If Hwrf materializes & the Rina goes to Cuba we might really get some good rain.
Quoting TampaSpin:



You really need to change your Avatar!....LMAO


Why?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What we were watching a year ago today:



I liked my version better..

Quoting Skyepony:


I liked my version better..


LOL, nice.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

LOL, nice.


Dr Masters wu-mailed me after, said he used in his presentation at NHC..
Quoting Skyepony:


I liked my version better..



Thats a beauty....YOU WIN!
Good morning Skye. Good morning Tampa. And good morning to all the rest. Sunny in Port St. Lucie with some occasional clouds, but looks like we will be getting really wet later today or tonight and probably all day tomorrow. Thanks Tampa for the radar pics. Skye, LOVE the jack-o-lantern!
Does Rina have any kind of chance to reform if she continues to linger in the Carrib? Looks like lots of moisture down there. Status of MJO? Water temps? Thanks.
356. 7544
i dont know about the a swril but that blob aka rina is moving nne and heading right over the southern part of fla. so looks like a wet 24 hours in store imo the blob beat the front lol
NEW BLOG
Quoting BackwoodsTN:

Troll Alert: JFVisOmnipotent and dabirds.


Not really, tired of hearing no one watching what is one of the best series in a long time is all. Long time lurker who finally signed in. Don't get JFV ref @ all, never wished a storm on anyone! Beautiful day in C IL & StL, going to game tonight-50s into 40s at game time. Hope you all enjoy on TV.
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
Good morning Skye. Good morning Tampa. And good morning to all the rest. Sunny in Port St. Lucie with some occasional clouds, but looks like we will be getting really wet later today or tonight and probably all day tomorrow. Thanks Tampa for the radar pics. Skye, LOVE the jack-o-lantern!
Does Rina have any kind of chance to reform if she continues to linger in the Carrib? Looks like lots of moisture down there. Status of MJO? Water temps? Thanks.

I say yes Rina could reform when its back in the caribbean. MJO+ATLANTIC=DOWNWARD but that don't mean that storm can't develop/or redevelop in downward phase. SST are still high, TCHP are still high, 26.C Isotherm still high, SSA are high in most areas in the NW Carib
Quoting BackwoodsTN:

Ha nice try pawning that off as yours. Just because stormtop made that and emailed that before he was banned, that does not make that yours to take credit for.

You tried pulling that stunt last year to.

Try again

Back off, GerlindeEspinoza. I mean BullShoarsTN. I mean ITCZMike. I mean capelookout. I mean BackwoodsTN.