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Tropical Storm Richard slowly intensifying

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:31 PM GMT on October 21, 2010

Tropical Storm Richard is here, the seventeenth named storm of this very busy 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Richard's formation puts 2010 in 6th place for the greatest number of named storms in the Atlantic since record keeping began in 1851. Only 2005 (28 named storms), 1933 (21 named storms), 1995 (19 named storms), 1887 (19 named storms), and 1969 (18 named storms) had more.

We won't have another hurricane hunter aircraft in Richard until 8pm tonight, so we will have to rely on satellite intensity estimates until then. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is on Richard's weak side about 100 miles from the heaviest thunderstorms. Winds at the buoy were just 18 mph, gusting to 22 mph, at 2:43pm EDT this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard is steadily organizing, with several curved spiral bands forming on the storm's south and east sides. The storm is bringing very heavy rain to Jamaica. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west and north of Richard, and the southwesterly upper-level winds over the storm are bringing some of this dry into the core of the storm, keeping all the heavy thunderstorm development confined to the east side of the center. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C, and Richard will begin taking advantage of these warm waters now that the shear is falling.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Richard.

Intensity forecast for Richard
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Monday morning. As the storm moves westwards on Friday, it will position itself beneath an upper-level high pressure system, which will aid the storm's upper-level outflow. With water temperatures a very warm 29°C and warm waters extending to great depth, Richard should be able to attain at least Category 1 hurricane strength by Saturday. NHC is currently giving Richard a 11% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 30%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will steadily weaken.

Track forecast for Richard
The latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs, and don't help illuminate what the long-range fate of Richard might be. Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, and will remain weak through Friday morning, resulting in a slow, erratic movement for Richard. Most of the models favor a southerly, then southwesterly path at 5mph or less over the next two days. This may bring the center of Richard very close to or over the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS models. These models then show Richard dissipating over Central America. A much different solution is offered by the ECMWF, HWRF and GFDL models, which foresee less of a southerly motion for Richard over the next two days, resulting in the storm missing the north coast of Honduras by one hundred miles or more. These models take Richard to the northwest across the tip of the Yucatan (GFDL and ECMWF models) or western tip of Cuba (HWRF model) on Sunday or Monday. The HWRF and GFDL models predict Richard will be a threat to the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. NHC takes the reasonable approach of predicting a path somewhere between these two extremes, with Richard crossing the Yucatan between Cozumel and the Belize/Mexico border. Residents of northern Honduras should anticipate the possibility that Richard will pass very close or strike Honduras on Saturday or Sunday. Very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches are possible over the the weekend in coastal Honduras beginning Friday night or Saturday morning. The 11am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 46%. Cozumel, Mexico is given a 42% chance, Key West a 6% chance, and Ft. Myers a 3% chance.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday (Invest 90L) has a modest amount of spin and some growing thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a moderate 5 - 15 knots, and the waters are still warm enough to support tropical storm formation. NHC is giving the system a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. By Sunday, 90L will encounter high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots, discouraging further development. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Typhoon Megi takes aim at China
Typhoon Megi continues it slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday morning on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi has maintained strength as a Category 3 typhoon with 115 mph winds today, despite rising wind shear (now a moderate 10 - 20 knots) and cooling sea surface temperatures. Megi is moving slow enough and is large and powerful enough that it is probably upwelling cold water from the depths to the surface faster than it can move away, and these upwelling cool waters are keeping Megi from being a stronger storm. Wind shear will increase dramatically to 20 - 40 knots on Friday as the typhoon makes its final approach to the coast of China, and this shear should be high enough to reduce Megi to Category 1 status before landfall. Megi will still be a very large and powerful storm capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. However, heavy rain will likely be the storm's main threat, since it is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi are already affecting the coast of China near Taiwan, as seen on China's radar composite, as well as Taiwan radar.

The clean-up continues in the Philippines from Megi, which hit northern Luzon island on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Severe damage was done to Isabela Province in northern Luzon, and 19 deaths are being blamed on the storm. Considering most major typhoon that have hit the Philippine in recent year have killed hundreds and sometimes thousands of people, the low death toll from Megi is a testament to the excellent efforts by officials in the Philippines to get people out of harm's way in advance of the storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall rate for Megi as observed by the TRMM polar orbiting satellite at 10:01am EDT October 21, 2010. Heavy rains in excess of 0.8" per hour (yellow colors) were present in Megi's eyewall and spiral bands. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

LOL

well 120 knots is Super Cyclone on the IMD scale after Very Severe Cyclonic Storm.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
LOL

well 120 knots is Super Cyclone on the IMD scale after Very Severe Cyclonic Storm.


Phew! I am glad that's there system. I thought it was that they add another 'very...' for every 10 kts the storm grows or something, LOL! JK.
Good Nite everyone........will post an update tomorrow morning......i have most major models on my blog running if anyone would like to view...NITE NITE!
Well, I am off to bed now...

Remeber, check out my october tropical trifecta article. If you have some questions as to what's going on in the Atlantic, you may find some answers. You can also leave questions there if I wasn't clear about something, and I will answer them.

Good night all!
TropicalStormRichard's heading had turned eastward to SouthEast
from its previous heading of dueSouth
TS.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~3.3mph(~5.4km/h) from its previous moving speed of ~2.3mph(~3.8km/h)

Actually, due to the effects of rounding to the nearest tenth of a degree upon position changes of only a tenth of a degree, TS.Richard could have been nearly stationary for the past 3hours and traveled as little as a total of ~21miles southward over the past 15hours.

TropicalDepression19
21Oct 06amGMT - 17.2n80.9w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - 1006mb- ATCF*17.3n80.9w*1005mb*17.2n80.8w
21Oct 09amGMT - 17.0n80.7w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#2
TropicalStormRichard
21Oct 12pmGMT - 16.6n80.6w - 35knots(~64.8km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF*30knots*16.5n80.7w
21Oct 03pmGMT - 16.2n80.4w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#3
21Oct 06pmGMT - 16.1n80.4w - 35knots(~64.8km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF
21Oct 09pmGMT - 16.0n80.4w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#4
22Oct 12amGMT - 16.0n80.5w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#4A
22Oct 03amGMT - 15.9n80.5w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#5
22Oct 06amGMT - 15.8n80.4w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#5A

Copy&paste 17.2n80.9w, 17.0n80.7w, 16.6n80.6w, 16.2n80.4w, 16.1n80.4w-16.0n80.4w, 16.0n80.4w-16.0n80.5w, 16.0n80.5w-15.9n80.5w, 15.9n80.5w-15.8n80.4w, tji, puz, jee into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers.
Also note the latest numbers and revisions made on the 22Oct,06amGMT ATCF report
21Oct 06pmGMT - 16.3n80.6w...1007mb - ATCF*16.1n80.4w*1006mb
22Oct 12amGMT - 16.0n80.4w...1007mb - ATCF*16.0n80.5w*1005mb (which matched the NHC.Adv)
22Oct 06amGMT - 16.0n80.3w...1005mb -vs- NHC.Adv. 15.8n80.4w...1006mb
Just in for a quickie. Looks like the Canadians aren't giving up on the season. Don't know where it comes from but it's interesting.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Just in for a quickie. Looks like the Canadians aren't giving up on the season. Don't know where it comes from but it's interesting.



Keeps us guessing.....Howdy stranger!!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #73
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
15:00 PM JST October 22 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Megi (960 hPa) located at 21.5N 118.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 23.7N 118.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 26.6N 117.7E - Tropical Depression
Quoting traumaboyy:


Keeps us guessing.....Howdy stranger!!


Hi Trauma! :) Yeah been playing hooky a lot. I'm sure xcool has fired me for good now. Lol. Richard brought me out of hibernation. Was just getting ready to tease the daughter's boyfriend Ricky about the storm. Then he went and got himself mugged tonight. Poor guy. :( He's got some bumps and bruises but he's ok. Strange night. Well I hope you're having a better one. Nice to see ya again.
1010. JLPR2
Richard's winds are weaker than the CATL's low, but the circulation seems to be better defined.

Eh... let's see what tomorrow brings



Night all! :D
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hi Trauma! :) Yeah been playing hooky a lot. I'm sure xcool has fired me for good now. Lol. Richard brought me out of hibernation. Was just getting ready to tease the daughter's boyfriend Ricky about the storm. Then he went and got himself mugged tonight. Poor guy. :( He's got some bumps and bruises but he's ok. Strange night. Well I hope you're having a better one. Nice to see ya again.


Glad he ok.....quiet here now....guess the blog dies after the active season....
richard blow up,also looks like jogging to the north


T5.0

90 kts
1014. shikori
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
richard blow up,also looks like jogging to the north


Exactlty remember my proposal last night. If it explodes like reedzone said it would it would go NW or N.
1015. shikori


Obviously stronger than last night
1016. shikori
1017. shikori
Pressure has been dropping here so so far.
what are you doing up this time in the am , you should be sleeping you have school in the am
i dont seewhere pressure has been dropping please point me to that data
Quoting shikori:


Exactlty remember my proposal last night. If it explodes like reedzone said it would it would go NW or N.


"Reedzone says", never mind that - the official forecast said dev. would occur - Reedzone merely repeated the obvious that the real mets already noted....you really cant make a "prediction" with substance, as some so loosely do on blog- without a real textbook knowledge of meteorology and tropical weather. The fact is there is a huge difference in a guess labeled as a prediction and a and a fact based forecast.
1021. IKE
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH VERY
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR HAS
RELAXED A LITTLE BIT MORE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0
AND 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
LAST RECON A FEW HOURS AGO FOUND A WEAK CYCLONE...MICROWAVE DATA
DOES NOT SHOW AN INNER CORE...AND FURTHERMORE...ASCAT DATA SHOW
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KNOTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
GENEROUSLY AT 35 KNOTS. ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK RICHARD ABOUT 12
UTC.0.

NOW THAT THE SHEAR HAS RELAXED AND MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE
AREA...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BEGIN. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BE A
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
ONCE OVER YUCATAN THE EFFECT OF LAND AND INCREASING SHEAR WOULD
RESULT IN WEAKENING. MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR...ARE
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN INTENSIFYING RICHARD AS THEY WERE IN PREVIOUS
RUNS. THIS IS PERHAPS BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE CYCLONE
TO BE CLOSER TO LAND INSTEAD OF OVER THE OPEN NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA LIKE IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

RICHARD HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE IT IS
STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THIS STEERING
PATTERN IS ABOUT TO CHANGE AS THE CURRENT TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIFTS
OUT AND BECOMES REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE. THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL FORCE RICHARD ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IT SEEMS THAT GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A STRONGER RIDGE
THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT. NONE OF THE MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE
NORTHWARD AND ARE FOLLOWING THE WESTWARD TREND INITIATED BY THE
GFS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 16.0N 80.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 15.9N 80.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 15.9N 81.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 16.0N 83.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 16.5N 84.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 17.5N 87.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 19.0N 90.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/0600Z 21.0N 91.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


1022. IKE
i sure hope it does go that direction ,not that i want it to hit anyone country, just not here.
1024. funeeeg
Cyclone Giri is at least a Cat 3 and the are calling it a 55knt system - good grief..... I just hope that people have been evacuated from low lying areas in the storms path.
TropicalStormRichard's heading had turned northward to (3.3degrees east of) NorthNorthEast
from its previous heading of SouthEast
TS.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~5mph(~8km/h) from its previous moving speed of ~3.3mph(~5.4km/h)

NHC is treating the latest position change as a center relocation ("Moving: stationary") rather than as the actual movement of the storm's center.

TropicalDepression19
21Oct 09amGMT - 17.0n80.7w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#2
TropicalStormRichard
21Oct 12pmGMT - 16.6n80.6w - 35knots(~64.8km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF*30knots*16.5n80.7w
21Oct 03pmGMT - 16.2n80.4w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#3
21Oct 06pmGMT - 16.1n80.4w - 35knots(~64.8km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF
21Oct 09pmGMT - 16.0n80.4w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#4
22Oct 12amGMT - 16.0n80.5w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#4A
22Oct 03amGMT - 15.9n80.5w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#5
22Oct 06amGMT - 15.8n80.4w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#5A
21Oct 09amGMT - 16.0n80.3w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#6

Copy&paste 17.0n80.7w, 16.6n80.6w, 16.2n80.4w, 16.1n80.4w, 16.0n80.4w-16.0n80.5w, 16.0n80.5w-15.9n80.5w, 15.9n80.5w-15.8n80.4w, 15.8n80.4w-16.0n80.3w, kin into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers.
Also note the latest numbers and revisions made on the 22Oct,06amGMT ATCF report
21Oct 06pmGMT - 16.3n80.6w...1007mb - ATCF*16.1n80.4w*1006mb
22Oct 12amGMT - 16.0n80.4w...1007mb - ATCF*16.0n80.5w*1005mb (which matched NHC.Adv)
22Oct 06amGMT - 16.0n80.3w...1005mb -vs- NHC.Adv. 15.8n80.4w...1006mb
Such mallebility in the ATCF numbers being why I'll be plotting the NHC.Adv. numbers while while no longer plotting new ATCF revisions for as long as there remains 3hours between Advisories.
Still...
06amGMT ATCF "16.0n80.3w...1005mb" and 09amGMT NHC.Adv.#6 ""16.0n80.3w...1005mb"
Coincidence? I think not.
The 5 am NHC discussion suggests HWRF and GFDL have thrown in their towels...but like fickle people, fickle models might change their minds...Richard looks less like a serious threat to conus now, but the day is young, as many posters will note this morning!
Quoting funeeeg:
Cyclone Giri is at least a Cat 3 and the are calling it a 55knt system - good grief..... I just hope that people have been evacuated from low lying areas in the storms path.


125 knots from JTWC
Richard looks a lot better unless the center isn't under all that convection
Richard's become better organized.
1030. shikori
Awake again. img img
Wow I didn't even know Giri had an eye. According to wiki he's a cat 4. Myanmar/Burma (I don't know which it is now) generally doesn't deal well with cyclones I hope this isn't another Nargis
1032. ackee
The low in central atlantic does seem to have low shear ahead of it has gone bit further south avoid shear to it North
The models will change back to the northern path...the trend all season of the west moving Carib storms will not hold true this time. It's late in the season and the troughs are deeper and the westerlies extend well south along the Gulf Coast. This one is not going to escape a recurve.




Quoting jrmontague:
The 5 am NHC discussion suggests HWRF and GFDL have thrown in their towels...but like fickle people, fickle models might change their minds...Richard looks less like a serious threat to conus now, but the day is young, as many posters will note this morning!
1034. shikori
Forget the wind direction thats broken look at the sat.
1035. shikori
Quoting portcharlotte:
The models will change back to the northern path...the trend all season of the west moving Carib storms will not hold true this time. It's late in the season and the troughs are deeper and the westerlies extend well south along the Gulf Coast. This one is not going to escape a recurve.






Agreed. Especially if it has become significantly stronger, which, by the looks of it yes, so WE in Cayman will need to watch it.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Wow I didn't even know Giri had an eye. According to wiki he's a cat 4. Myanmar/Burma (I don't know which it is now) generally doesn't deal well with cyclones I hope this isn't another Nargis




really? not hard to miss the eye.
1037. bjdsrq
Comments on the IR Rainbow sat loop please. I haven't had any coffee yet, but is that thing in the center an eye forming or just a super-cold cloud top?

Link
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:




really? not hard to miss the eye.

I mean I wasn't paying attention to Giri I thought it was just some minimal ts that would make landfall in a day, I don't think that many other people were paying attention either. Giri has the potential to be really devastating
1039. shikori
The vort as of 00:00UTC has deepend even more
1040. shikori
Quoting bjdsrq:
Comments on the IR Rainbow sat loop please. I haven't had any coffee yet, but is that thing in the center an eye forming or just a super-cold cloud top?

Link


Drink your coffee
1041. Keys99
As of the last observation at 10:06:00Z, the plane's...

Direction of Travel: SSE (155°)
Location: 64 miles (102 km) to the E (89°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
Quoting portcharlotte:
The models will change back to the northern path...the trend all season of the west moving Carib storms will not hold true this time. It's late in the season and the troughs are deeper and the westerlies extend well south along the Gulf Coast. This one is not going to escape a recurve.





Can a north-shift occur? Sure. Will it occur? Perhaps. Let's wait and see.
Quoting CapeObserver:
Doug you have great taste in music!




Aw shux!
1044. IKE
120 hour GFS at 850 mb's shows a ridge extending into the eastern GOM....has Rick making a landfall near Belize...



1045. bjdsrq
Quoting shikori:


Drink your coffee


Cute. But that doesn't answer my question. There is an obvious distinct high-contrasting feature in the center the last few frames of that loop of the IR rainbow. Did you even look at the loop or are you just being a tool?
Mornin all. So Ike! Shields still up?
Quoting shikori:


Drink your coffee



I can support that!

1048. shikori
Quoting bjdsrq:


Cute. But that doesn't answer my question. There is an obvious distinct high-contrasting feature in the center the last few frames of that loop of the IR rainbow. Did you even look at the loop or are you just being a tool?


Ok now i looked and I see what you are talking about, it almost looks like something is trying to open up a bit just to the south of the white patch, definitely not a cloud top. I wonder what the latest loop will show.
1049. bjdsrq
Quoting shikori:


Ok now i looked and I see what you are talking about, it almost looks like something is trying to open up a bit just to the south of the white patch, definitely not a cloud top. I wonder what the latest loop will show.


It's been on the last few frames, so it's not a glitch. IR rainbow is the only product that is picking up on it at the moment.
1050. shikori
Quoting bjdsrq:


It's been on the last few frames, so it's not a glitch. IR rainbow is the only product that is picking up on it at the moment.


If it is an eye trying to pop in that would be a surprise for everyone. Richard get the title for rapid intensification.
1051. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Mornin all. So Ike! Shields still up?


Still up. Stronger high then the models were showing a couple of days ago.
1052. WxLogic
Good Morning...

Richard appears to be taken advantage of DMAX.
1053. Keys99
Someone had to many cups of coffee on the Night Shift.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
356 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH...WILL CREATE COMFORTABLE BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...
OUR 04Z MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. WE NOTE PARENTHETICALLY THAT
INDICATED PRESSURES ON THE PENINSULA ARE ABOUT A MILLIBAR HIGHER THAN
FORECAST BY THE NUMERICAL MODEL SUITE. WITH THE HIGH IN THIS POSITION
WE CAN EXPECT STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST BREEZES AND DRY CONTINENTAL
CONDITIONS TODAY.

HOWEVER THE HIGH IS ON THE MOVE. ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THE PATTERN IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE LOCAL SURFACE RIDGE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS OUR WINDS WILL HAUL INTO THE
EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST LEADING TO INCREASING VALUES OF TOTAL COLUMN
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES DUE TO THE NEW OCEANIC AIR MASS SOURCE
REGION.

NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL STORM RICHARD LOCATED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
IS FORECAST BY THE CENTER TO DRIFT TOWARD MEXICO AND INTENSIFY THIS
WEEKEND. ON THIS BASIS WE CAN EXPECT A FURTHER INCREASE OF MOISTURE
VALUES...AND RAIN CHANCES...IN A SOUTHERLY SURGE ALONG ABOUT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. NONETHELESS AT THIS STAGE WE ARE UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE
WHILE WE SEE HOW STABLE THIS TRACK TURNS OUT TO BE. TUNE IN AGAIN ON
SUNDAY IF YOU HAVE IMPORTANT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SCHEDULED FOR THE
COMING WEEK.
&&

.LONG TERM...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OUR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN POSITION. FOR THAT REASON
WE EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
6th place for the last hundred yr would be for 2000 yrs?
1055. bjdsrq
Quoting shikori:


If it is an eye trying to pop in that would be a surprise for everyone. Richard get the title for rapid intensification.


I wasn't going to put my head on the chopping block for using the R.I. phrase, so glad you did ;-)
I would be surprised if it was R.I., but with that impressive burst of very symmetric convection (and outflow) it's possible. If so, this could be a bit of a game changer for the forecast track.
Quoting bjdsrq:


It's been on the last few frames, so it's not a glitch. IR rainbow is the only product that is picking up on it at the moment.


Good Morning,

All of your questions will be answered shortly as the HH's are getting close...

Observation Time: Friday, 10:21Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 19.9N 85.2W
Location: 137 miles (220 km) to the SE (129°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,310 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -19°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -26°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,560 geopotential meters
1057. shikori


What do you see bjdsrq?
Troll alert!
1059. bjdsrq
Quoting shikori:


What do you see bjdsrq?


That's not the IR rainbow. I just checked the most recent IR rainbow frame (just out) and it dropped the feature there. Obviously making a conclusion on one discrete sample is bad science, so we'll have to wait for a few more frames.
1060. WxLogic
Negative NAO... still shows a continuation of ridging across E CONUS:

Morning, more rain for the Yucatan Peninsula?
Has everything that has formed this season either gone that route or NNW out to sea?
hard to compare to storms in the past but opal seems like a good one probally going to be a major before landfall in the yucatan
Conditions at 42057 as of
(5:50 am EDT)
0950 GMT on 10/22/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.0 m/s
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 13.0 m/s
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 2.1 m
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.0 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1007.9 mb
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.4 mb ( Falling )

5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 27.1 °C
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 28.7 °C
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 24.5 °C
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 30.6 °C
JB's take on it this morning.

FRIDAY 7 AM
THIS IS GOING TO BE VERY INTERESTING ( THE RECON)

If Richard is where its supposed to be, it is in the center of an area of increasingly focuses and intense convection. Hard to believe that yesterday when it was named it was a 1006 mb storm, given the sheared look, and now its only down one millibar. I suspect the snowball is starting to roll down the hill and this is a hurricane by tomorrow and a major hurricane on Sunday. For our purposes, when it reaches 960 mb, I will consider that correct, since there is subjective adjustment of wind that goes on and with the forecast lagging behind mind, we should see the reported wind increase lag behind the pressure/recon reality.

That being said, it is missing trough number one, so will have to cross the Yucatan and then its up to trough number two, the latter part of next week to get it. The potential for a stronger tropical system and the stronger trough is still very much alive here, though the Florida fast hit ( recall the GFDL and HWRF on shore by Tuesday) is not. Interestingly enough they have backed off on intensity and I see NO MODEL as strong as I am with this, so it will be a coup if I am right.

thanks for reading, ciao for now ****

...so no rain for Florida. sad.
1066. scott39
What a difference 24 hours make. The next 24 should be interesting.
As has been mentioned by Levi32 and others...look at the path of the Pacific storm which is recurving. The message here is that the ridge will erode the same way once the system gets close to Yucatan. I think this will correlate well with Richard. SW flow will be set up over the Gulf when Richard reaches Yucatan. It's not heading for Tampico and not dying over yucatan and the shear will not be 65 knots over the Gulf. Eventually the old pattern gets broken. This ridge is progressive in nature and will be shoved eastward opening the Gulf. Let's face it Hurricanes will enter the Gulf again


Quoting shikori:


Agreed. Especially if it has become significantly stronger, which, by the looks of it yes, so WE in Cayman will need to watch it.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
JB's take on it this morning.

FRIDAY 7 AM
THIS IS GOING TO BE VERY INTERESTING ( THE RECON)

If Richard is where its supposed to be, it is in the center of an area of increasingly focuses and intense convection. Hard to believe that yesterday when it was named it was a 1006 mb storm, given the sheared look, and now its only down one millibar. I suspect the snowball is starting to roll down the hill and this is a hurricane by tomorrow and a major hurricane on Sunday. For our purposes, when it reaches 960 mb, I will consider that correct, since there is subjective adjustment of wind that goes on and with the forecast lagging behind mind, we should see the reported wind increase lag behind the pressure/recon reality.

That being said, it is missing trough number one, so will have to cross the Yucatan and then its up to trough number two, the latter part of next week to get it. The potential for a stronger tropical system and the stronger trough is still very much alive here, though the Florida fast hit ( recall the GFDL and HWRF on shore by Tuesday) is not. Interestingly enough they have backed off on intensity and I see NO MODEL as strong as I am with this, so it will be a coup if I am right.

thanks for reading, ciao for now ****

The man from CaribWx also saying he expects it to be stronger than what NHC is predicting.
1069. IKE
Alex....




Karl....




Matthew....


T.C.F.W.
19L/TS/R/CX
MARK
16.75N/80.68W
Oz won't be on the road today. Maybe by Sunday.
1073. scott39
Will Richard die in the GOM and not hit land On the US Gulf Coast?
1074. scott39
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Oz won't be on the road today. Maybe by Sunday.
And possibly go where?
Quoting scott39:
Will Richard die in the GOM and not hit land On the US Gulf Coast?



My crystal ball is on the fritz.
1076. scott39
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



My crystal ball is on the fritz.
Well, Shake it harder!!
Thinking is, the more southerly route and proximity to land will keep it a weaker system.
...so no rain for Florida. sad.



Dry as a bone.
Re: 1074


See 1075
1080. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
...so no rain for Florida. sad.



Dry as a bone.


GFS showing less rain next week here. I bet we don't get much.

Found this....

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
508 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

VALID 12Z TUE OCT 26 2010 - 12Z FRI OCT 29 2010


USED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR
DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ESPECIALLY
LOW THIS FORECAST...WITH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF DEPARTING FROM
ITS LAST SEVERAL SOLUTIONS WITH THE WAY THE COLD AIR FINAL MAKES
IT INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE
MAY NEVER GIVE WAY...WITH A CONVOLUTED...ROLLOVER OF A TROUGH
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.
Quoting scott39:
Well, Shake it harder!!




You know what they say....
1082. scott39
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




You know what they say....
True, Nevermind!
Quoting portcharlotte:
As has been mentioned by Levi32 and others...look at the path of the Pacific storm which is recurving. The message here is that the ridge will erode the same way once the system gets close to Yucatan. I think this will correlate well with Richard. SW flow will be set up over the Gulf when Richard reaches Yucatan. It's not heading for Tampico and not dying over yucatan and the shear will not be 65 knots over the Gulf. Eventually the old pattern gets broken. This ridge is progressive in nature and will be shoved eastward opening the Gulf. Let's face it Hurricanes will enter the Gulf again




Did you see the latest intensity model runs, none of them bring it up past category 2 strength! I find that hard to believe especially since Paula almost made it to category 3 strength with the same hostile conditions to her Northwest. What I'm saying is the models are underdoing the intensity and a stronger storm has the tendency to track to the right of the cone as it feels the influence of a weakening ridge and an approaching trough. So the million dollar question is who wins out? Strong Trough or Strong High? I say a strong trough especially what we've seen with the last three storms Otto, Paula, and Nicole, on top of we're getting into that time of the year where climatology says that storms re-curve and troughs dig deeper into the gulf and almost into the NW Caribbean sometimes even clearing the whole state of FL.
1084. scott39
Ike has powers that are hard to understand. Just go with it!
Ike..to be fair...why don't you show the track of Mitch...I can not believe I get up this mornin g and you are here again with the same propaganda. It may go away yes but you never give up...we need the rain here and a tropical storm is not going to rip your roof off. It may break some branches..You really don;t enjoy the weather and it's changes. You just enjoy irritating weather enthusiasts and you know it...You ruin my day but always debatin g everything..Please stay away for a day or too and let me enjoy.
Poultry anxiety?

Anyone watching F and F?
1087. IKE
Quoting portcharlotte:
Ike..to be fair...why don't you show the track of Mitch...I can not believe I get up this mornin g and you are here again with the same propaganda. It may go away yes but you never give up...we need the rain here and a tropical storm is not going to rip your roof off. It may break some branches..You really don;t enjoy the weather and it's changes. You just enjoy irritating weather enthusiasts and you know it...You ruin my day but always debatin g everything..Please stay away for a day or too and let me enjoy.


Like anyone on here has any control over the weather.

You put Mitch's path on here if you want to. I was verifying what chicklit posted about similarities in tracks for 2010.

I can't help it if it doesn't rain at your house or mine and I've got more important things in life to worry about anyway.

I'll post on here whenever I want to. Just stick me on ignore and your through with me.
1088. scott39
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Poultry anxiety?

Anyone watching F and F?
Chicken need Xanax?
1089. shikori
New sat looks even more intense than the last.
Quoting scott39:
Chicken need Xanax?


Reading my mind! Mix it with their feed?
Quoting shikori:
New sat looks even more intense than the last.



If the visible shows the center underneath, It's a new ball game from last night.
Morning, Ike. Much appreciated.
have a great day everyone.
see you at happy hour :) tgif!
I like you Ike but your drum beat gets boring and tiring.. Change your name to Spike or something else refreshing...sorry to sound rude but i enjoy wx changes and storms are what makes experiencing weather interesting.



Quoting IKE:


Like anyone on here has any control over the weather.

You put Mitch's path on here if you want to. I was verifying what chicklit posted about similarities in tracks for 2010.

I can't help it if it doesn't rain at your house or mine and I've got more important things in life to worry about anyway.

I'll post on here whenever I want to. Just stick me on ignore and your through with me.
1094. IKE
Quoting portcharlotte:
I like you Ike but your drum beat gets boring and tiring.. Change your name to Spike or something else refreshing...sorry to sound rude but i enjoy wx changes and storms are what makes experiencing weather interesting.





Like I have any control over the weather? You sound like your about 14 years-old.
This is the direction of the steering notice the western flank of the high over Texas starting to erode as all this progresses eastward that same gap out west will be responsible for picking Richard up and turning it more to the North NE, and because Richard is stationary that makes the timing of the trough that much more quicker.

HH's are right on the outer edge of the coldest cloud tops...

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 11:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 19
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 08

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Friday, 11:19Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 16.5N 81.8W
Location: 196 miles (315 km) to the S (188°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 450 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 40° at 24 knots (From the NE at ~ 27.6 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 2°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1010 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 40° at 25 knots (From the NE at ~ 28.7 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 25 knots (~ 28.8mph)
Quoting GTcooliebai:
This is the direction of the steering notice the western flank of the high over Texas starting to erode as all this progresses eastward that same gap out west will be responsible for picking Richard up and turning it more to the North NE, and because Richard is stationary that makes the timing of the trough that much more quicker.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

Quoting portcharlotte:
Ike..to be fair...why don't you show the track of Mitch...I can not believe I get up this mornin g and you are here again with the same propaganda. It may go away yes but you never give up...we need the rain here and a tropical storm is not going to rip your roof off. It may break some branches..You really don;t enjoy the weather and it's changes. You just enjoy irritating weather enthusiasts and you know it...You ruin my day but always debatin g everything..Please stay away for a day or too and let me enjoy.


Put the troll on ignore so he won't get to you. He is accomplishing exactly what trolls want to do and he is very good at it.
1099. shikori
Why don't you just give a 50/50 input Ike, that way no one complains because you give two sides of the argument.
1100. IKE
Quoting shikori:
Why don't you just give a 50/50 input Ike, that way no one complains because you give two sides of the argument.


There is no other side...this system is headed for the Yucatan. Beyond that it's a guess.

Even Bastardi said it was headed there. Not my fault. Best thing to do if you want to experience a hurricane is head for Belize and the Yucatan.
posting hurricane tracks that are on topic is not trolling.
complaining about it is.
What we should start doing is save these steering charts, so if the steering was ever the same or close to it we could compare it to previous storms, lol.
1105. scott39
The guy from crown weather said Richard move NE for 72miles last night. That is odd.
1106. IKE
Quoting Chicklit:
posting hurricane tracks that are on topic is not trolling.
complaining about it is.


That's what I was doing...agreeing with you.

1107. scott39
Quoting scott39:
The guy from crown weather said Richard move NE for 72miles last night. That is odd.
Correction--ENE for 42miles at 7mph. I need my coffee!
1108. FLdewey
I thought I hear someone screaming last night...



Aaaaaahahahaha!
Quoting scott39:
The guy from crown weather said Richard move NE for 72miles last night. That is odd.
I think he said 42 miles.
1110. scott39
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I think he said 42 miles.
post 1107

Hurricane Mitch


Although I don't dislike Ike I do see mostly all of the posts always show a model that will miss the CONUS. Yesterday the GFDL & HWRF both had a FL strike and post after post from him was always centered on a non CONUS hit. Not 50/50 but always onesided posting.
I do understand that there are many on here that post the other way but he almost does it on purpose to antagonize people.
No this is not a TROLL posting.
portcharlotte its going to be a dry 4 months for the se so get use to it and maybe you can put la nina on ignore that may help
1115. scott39
Quoting 954FtLCane:

Hurricane Mitch


Although I don't dislike Ike I do see mostly all of the posts always show a model that will miss the CONUS. Yesterday the GFDL & HWRF both had a FL strike and post after post from him was always centered on a non CONUS hit. Not 50/50 but always onesided posting.
I do understand that there are many on here that post the other way but he almost does it on purpose to antagonize people.
No this is not a TROLL posting.
If you DONT LIKE IKE, put him on IGNORE. Its that simple. Nobody is going to change the way he posts.
I think IKE calls it like he sees it. And he saw it. He saw the GFS taking Richard west over the Yucatan or Belize and then into Mexico...and guess what, Richard is looking increasingly likely he'll go there. That's precise forecasting I think.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Click To Enlarge

Wow! that is favorable shear couple that with warm sst and tchp I see know reason why this can't blow up into a cat5hurricane, heck its got 72hrs to do so "according to models."
Lower Level Convergence looking much more organized from last evening.

Click To Enlarge
1119. FLdewey
I think people like to take their hurricane dry spell out on Ike.

Facts apparently infuriate people on this blog.
ike can you only post images showing no stikes on the se i think everyone likes that when you do it
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Wow! that is favorable shear couple that with warm sst and tchp I see know reason why this can't blow up into a cat5hurricane, heck its got 72hrs to do so "according to models."

LOL. I hear the clock....tick tick tick tick
Quoting FLdewey:
I think people like to take their hurricane dry spell out on Ike.

Facts apparently infuriate people on this blog.
lets not get on the facts wagon ya will really piss em off
Quoting cat5hurricane:
I think IKE calls it like he sees it. And he saw it. He saw the GFS taking Richard west over the Yucatan or Belize and then into Mexico...and guess what, Richard is looking increasingly likely he'll go there. That's precise forecasting I think.



Precise? He ain't moving infact he moved about 42 miles NE last night. There is still a really good chance Richard never makes it to the Yucatan. A Stationary storm in the NW Caribbean or Gulf this time of year is bad news because one of these troughs moving by will eventually pick this up. So far nobody's right not IKE, not jeff9641, nobody as we have a system sitting still right now being a "Dick".
Quoting FLdewey:
I think people like to take their hurricane dry spell out on Ike.

Facts apparently infuriate people on this blog.


Morning Dewey! Good Stormchasers on Wed. but I wanted to see more of the Yazoo City tornado and they did,'t show it that much.
looking at this image can anyone tell me where its not going to go and where its most likly to go take your time think about it first

Quoting Jeff9641:



Precise? He ain't moving infact he moved about 42 miles NE last night. There is still a really good chance Richard never makes it to the Yucatan. A Stationary storm in the NW Caribbean or Gulf this time of year is bad news because one of these troughs moving by will eventually pick this up. So far nobody's right not IKE, not jeff9641, nobody as we have a system sitting still right now being a "Dick".

Very good. And he can go anywhere. Lots of different variables in play. We all simply don't know "Dick" yet.
Quoting Jeff9641:



Precise? He ain't moving infact he moved about 42 miles NE last night. There is still a really good chance Richard never makes it to the Yucatan. A Stationary storm in the NW Caribbean or Gulf this time of year is bad news because one of these troughs moving by will eventually pick this up. So far nobody's right not IKE, not jeff9641, nobody as we have a system sitting still right now being a "Dick".
+1
Quoting Jeff9641:



Precise? He ain't moving infact he moved about 42 miles NE last night. There is still a really good chance Richard never makes it to the Yucatan. A Stationary storm in the NW Caribbean or Gulf this time of year is bad news because one of these troughs moving by will eventually pick this up. So far nobody's right not IKE, not jeff9641, nobody as we have a system sitting still right now being a "Dick".
+10
3 days out



6 days out



Nov. storm?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looking at this image can anyone tell me where its not going to go and where its most likly to go take your time think about it first


This is one of those situations where it's probably best not to think about it too much. Blue's my favorite color, so blue.
1131. scott39
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looking at this image can anyone tell me where its not going to go and where its most likly to go take your time think about it first

Hmm, I would say NOT going to FL! Wait did I just cuss saying that? Sorry!!
Quoting stormpetrol:
+10
Morning stormpetrol. Kinda looked like the sky was going to clear up this morning and now looks worse than ever.
Quoting Chicklit:
...so no rain for Florida. sad.


Forecast is calling for rain and thunderstorms all next week for C FL. YAY! Hang in there!
1134. scott39
Quoting cat5hurricane:

This is one of those situations where it's probably best not to think about it too much. Blue's my favorite color, so blue.
Which of those color blues?
1135. IKE
...RICHARD MILLING AROUND EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS...
5:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 22
Location: 16.0°N 80.3°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1005 mb

...............................................

...RICHARD EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...
8:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 22
Location: 15.9°N 80.7°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1006 mb
1136. scott39
Poor Belize!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Morning stormpetrol. Kinda looked like the sky was going to clear up this morning and now looks worse than ever.

morning to you and everyone, just too a look outside, looks gloomy to the SE, but it is very still here in SS, not much wind at all.
1139. scott39
When are HH scheduled to go out?
Quoting scott39:
Which of those color blues?

Well since you asked me to narrow it down, I'm liking the one that takes him straight up the Bay of Campeche.


5 minutes ago. Grand Cayman
Quoting Jeff9641:


Forecast is calling for rain and thunderstorms all next week for C FL. YAY! Hang in there!

Some for you and some for me, spread the wealth around:

Link
Quoting scott39:
When are HH scheduled to go out?
They are there now.
1144. scott39
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Well since you asked me to narrow it down, I'm liking the one that takes him straight up the Bay of Campeche.
Thats a nice color.
Quoting stormpetrol:

morning to you and everyone, just too a look outside, looks gloomy to the SE, but it is very still here in SS, not much wind at all.


Yup a nasty rain squall is heading wnw toward the Caymans right now. I wouldn't rule out some very gusty winds as this rolls thru as well.
Quoting IKE:
...RICHARD MILLING AROUND EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS...
5:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 22
Location: 16.0°N 80.3°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1005 mb

...............................................

...RICHARD EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...
8:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 22
Location: 15.9°N 80.7°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Key word.
1147. scott39
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
They are there now.
Thanks, I think thier going to find a stronger storm.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Oh No, looking at the core tightening up, folks its starting to take off!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Key word.


If you look at LSU Earth Scan Lab you can begin to see what appears to be a westward motion with the convection. Post 1112
Quoting scott39:
Thanks, I think thier going to find a stronger storm.

Couldn't agree with you better man.
Quoting Chicklit:
posting hurricane tracks that are on topic is not trolling.
complaining about it is.


Agrred! I don't see Ike as a troll either.Just a different (realistic) poin of view.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looking at this image can anyone tell me where its not going to go and where its most likly to go take your time think about it first





Bahamas ?
1153. shawn26
When can we start expecting some data from this mission?
06Z GFS (250mb plot) up to 72 hours out.

Click To Enlarge
As of the last observation at 11:56:00Z, the plane's...

Direction of Travel: SE (136°)
Location: 300 miles (484 km) to the SSE (165°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
Quoting GTcooliebai:


If you look at LSU Earth Scan Lab you can begin to see what appears to be a westward motion with the convection. Post 1112

Yep...he is moving westward.
This C ATL low is forecast by some models like the CMC to be a hurricane and head up toward the Caymans in in 9 to 10 days. Very weird late October pattern here. It almost appears we seem to be hitting a second peak in the season right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
1158. HCW
Pretty good agreement with the models

Time: 11:23:00Z
Coordinates: 16.4N 81.6333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 962.9 mb (~ 28.43 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 412 meters (~ 1,352 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.4 mb (~ 29.81 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 48° at 25 knots (From the NE at ~ 28.7 mph)
Air Temp: 22.8°C (~ 73.0°F)
Dew Pt: 10.8°C (~ 51.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 26 knots (~ 29.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 27 knots (~ 31.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
I think Richard might take off to the WNW and NW and not even bother with the W turn
1161. shikori
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Morning stormpetrol. Kinda looked like the sky was going to clear up this morning and now looks worse than ever.


it DOes?
Quoting Jeff9641:
This C ATL low is forecast by some models like the CMC to be a hurricane and head up toward the Caymans in in 9 to 10 days. Very weird late October pattern here. It almost appears we seem to be hitting a second peak in the season right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

CMC is not the only one. The GFS a couple days ago showed this system starting to appear near the northern coast of the DR as a moderate TS. I ran the entire loop. Something to keep an eye on.
The GFDL has shifted eastward some and does bend this NE at then of the run. FL is NOT out of the woods AT ALL!

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/richard19l.2010102206/richard19l.2010102206_anim.html
1164. tkeith
Ike could you use your magic powers that some on here think you have, and make sure the Razorbacks, Saints and Rangers all win this weekend?

Oh, and we could use some rain here in NOLA too.

TIA :)
Quoting Jeff9641:
The GFDL has shifted eastward some and does bend this NE at then of the run. FL is NOT out of the woods AT ALL!

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/richard19l.2010102206/richard19l.2010102206 _anim.html

Not out of the woods for a hurricane, TS, TD, or a remnant low? Hoping they'll get some moisture out of this.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

CMC is not the only one. The GFS a couple days ago showed this system starting to appear near the northern coast of the DR as a moderate TS. I ran the entire loop. Something to keep an eye on.


The 06Z GFS run is similar to the CMC so I guess the NW Caribberan will stay a hot bed for activity well into November. Very weird to have tropical waves moving west in the Caribbean and developing in November. This means the SE US will need to keep an eye on thing for quite a while. Highs in Orlando are forecast to be near 90 all next week with thunderstorms in the afternoon which is also weird.
Quoting shikori:


it DOes?
No,it did but not anymore.
Quoting shikori:


it DOes?
Look at the picture I posted #1141.
1170. shikori
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Look at the picture I posted #1141.
\
Its been like that since yesterday. Ominous Not Ominous Ominous Not Ominous
not buying models path,they have been consistantly wrong with this system, just need to see what indication shows itself now untill about 12pm today
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 12:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 11:36:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°53'N 81°02'W (15.8833N 81.0333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 238 miles (382 km) to the S (174°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 29kts (~ 33.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 54 nautical miles (62 statute miles) to the NW (312°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 42° at 27kts (From the NE at ~ 31.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 52 nautical miles (60 statute miles) to the NW (312°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 425m (1,394ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 426m (1,398ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph) in the northwest quadrant at 11:21:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NW (309°) from the flight level center
1173. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
Ike could you use your magic powers that some on here think you have, and make sure the Razorbacks, Saints and Rangers all win this weekend?

Oh, and we could use some rain here in NOLA too.

TIA :)


I'll add you to the list.

..............................................

URNT12 KNHC 221219
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL192010
A. 22/11:36:20Z
B. 15 deg 53 min N
081 deg 02 min W
C. NA
D. 29 kt
E. 312 deg 54 nm
F. 042 deg 27 kt
G. 312 deg 52 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 23 C / 425 m
J. 23 C / 426 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF309 0519A RICHARD OB 09
MAX FL WIND 27 KT NW QUAD 11:21:10Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX

Quoting FLdewey:
Facts apparently infuriate people on this blog.

That's for sure; you should see what happens when the facts of AGW are laid out for all to see on those days that Dr. Masters talks about it. Lots of unfuriation... ;-)
Morning All.

Richie still rather weak. Southward trend continues however, still skeptical given the way they sometimes overdo ridges this year and underdo troughs. We'll see how they look tomorrow morning.
Quoting Jeff9641:


The 06Z GFS run is similar to the CMC so I guess the NW Caribberan will stay a hot bed for activity well into November. Very weird to have tropical waves moving west in the Caribbean and developing in November. This means the SE US will need to keep an eye on thing for quite a while. Highs in Orlando are forecast to be near 90 all next week with thunderstomrs in the afternoon which is also weird.

It would be quite bizarre to see disturbances traverse into these waters, but not out of the relm of possibilities. Just because of the persistent pattern in October for the CONUS does not mean November can mean something entirely different. The Caribbean as you said is far from stabilizing.
I finally figured out why the trolls are targeting IKE. It's his fault there are no conus hits to speak of this year. If he wasn't such a "down-caster" we would all be DOOM!

Keep up the good work!
I had a feeling yesterday when all the models were going to Florida that something would drastically change.

On the other hand, models will say anything anytime and many times they have been wrong.

Jeff's comment on Richard possibly not making it to the Yucatan is correcet and possible but given the extreme overall guidance shift due to a stronger high above Richard, it really seems like Florida is much safer than before.

if anyone thinks I am wrong, please feel free to chime in. Happy Friday everyone :)
1179. A4Guy
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looking at this image can anyone tell me where its not going to go and where its most likly to go take your time think about it first



someone from this blog must have hacked into the computers and had that blue model run go right to Tampa....

I'm sure someone will harp on that all day...afterall, it's one of the fifty GFS ensemble outputs taking it there.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

It would be quite bizarre to see disturbances traverse into these waters, but not out of the relm of possibilities. Just because of the persistent pattern in October for the CONUS does not mean November can mean something entirely different. The Caribbean as you said is far from stabilizing.


I brought up the near 90 degree temps expected in C FL all next week because what this does is keep the gulf warm enough to sustain a potential hurricane down the road. SST at New Symrna last weekend are still in the upper 70's.
1181. shikori
Upper Air Data Flights begin later today and this evening. Should concrete these models.

C. PROBABLE G-IV FLIGHT TAKING OFF AT 23/1730Z.

3. REMARKS: NOAA WILL FLY A SERIES OF RESEARCH MISSIONS
BEGINNING WITH A G-IV TAKEOFF AT 22/1730Z. THE P-3
WILL TAKE OFF EVERY 12 HRS STARTING AT 23/0200Z.
1183. guygee
To the extent (if any) that Richard deepens beyond current forecasts, model tracks will shift right again.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Morning All.

Richie still rather weak. Southward trend continues however, still skeptical given the way they sometimes overdo ridges this year and underdo troughs. We'll see how they look tomorrow morning.

You brought that up yesterday in regards to some of the models overdoing the ridges and underdoing the troughs...and that was a great point. The guidance may very well swing the other way between now and tomorrow.
Quoting Jeff9641:


I brought up the near 90 degree temps expected in C FL all next week because what this does is keep the gulf warm enough to sustain a potential hurricane down the road. SST at New Symrna last weekend are still in the upper 70's.

Yep. Still sufficient enough.
Quoting kshipre1:
I had a feeling yesterday when all the models were going to Florida that something would drastically change.

On the other hand, models will say anything anytime and many times they have been wrong.

Jeff's comment on Richard possibly not making it to the Yucatan is correcet and possible but given the extreme overall guidance shift due to a stronger high above Richard, it really seems like Florida is much safer than before.

if anyone thinks I am wrong, please feel free to chime in. Happy Friday everyone :)


Oh I agree with you but the problem is he's not moving much and if he doesn't move by tomorrow then we could be looking at a new path because the trough arrives in the eastern gulf on Monday hence our increase in rain chances. So it's anybody's guess right now. We should just wait and see what Dick wants to do.
Good morning my friends,

Well i see TS Richard is still with us... and just my 2 cents... I am wondering where people get the idea from looking at the models it is a Florida storm? Yesterday it was all about hitting Tampa, when like only one or two models out of dozens even brought it in that direction??? most do have it dying out over Mexico ....

There is just so much dry air and shear, it is like a wall that will be hard to break thru.


And I will not "turn my back" on this storm because we all know anything can happen, and in a few days the atmosphere may change enough to give Richard a little more chance to develope get in the GOM and head North or NE or even East...But right now, I would not be placing any Bets on Richard coming to Florida by Monday....but I could be wrong.


Enjoy your Friday and I will be lurking in fromt time to time to see what is going on here.
Be good and don't get yourself banned!
1188. shikori
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You brought that up yesterday in regards to some of the models overdoing the ridges and underdoing the troughs...and that was a great point. The guidance may very well swing the other way between now and tomorrow.


Well i hope it does now so i get home extra early.
Hi Jeff. when was this GFDL model run? this morning?

just wondering because the guy at crown weather was saying that he would not be surprised to see shifts in model runs but overall the threat to florida is much less due to the models agreeing on a much stronger hign pressure to the north, thanks
Ike, let the force be with you and keep the shields up!
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You brought that up yesterday in regards to some of the models overdoing the ridges and underdoing the troughs...and that was a great point. The guidance may very well swing the other way between now and tomorrow.


Cyclone strength, as Guygee pointed out will have an effect as well. These UAD flights should solidify the model portion. Richie is still rather weak ATM so, westward ho.
Quoting shikori:


Well i hope it does now so i get home extra early.

Where do you stay at?
Quoting seflagamma:
Good morning my friends,

Well i see TS Richard is still with us... and just my 2 cents... I am wondering where people get the idea from looking at the models it is a Florida storm? Yesterday it was all about hitting Tampa, when like only one or two models out of dozens even brought it in that direction??? most do have it dying out over Mexico ....

There is just so much dry air and shear, it is like a wall that will be hard to break thru.


And I will not "turn my back" on this storm because we all know anything can happen, and in a few days the atmosphere may change enought to give Richard a little more chancg to develope get in the GOM and head North or NE or even East...But right now, I would not be placing any Bets on Richard coming to Floriday by Monday....but I could be wrong.


Enjoy your Friday and I will be lurking in fromt time to time to see what is going on here.
Be good and don't get yourself banned!



Seen Patrap last night if you didn't
I think if the HH flys to the NE of the present vortex they could find a better COC (under the convection)
Quoting kshipre1:
Hi Jeff. when was this GFDL model run? this morning?

just wondering because the guy at crown weather was saying that he would not be surprised to see shifts in model runs but overall the threat to florida is much less due to the models agreeing on a much stronger hign pressure to the north, thanks


At 8am. It just shifted to the right some but the reason I think is because he still isn't moving and the longer this stay the same then the more tracks will have to shift right. Also if he deepens quickly today then this could also change tracks to the right some. A lot of variables at play right now.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Seen Patrap last night if you didn't

Thanks, i see he updated his blog last night as proof he is around... have not been around to see any post.. did he post here last night?
Quoting shikori:

Good morning to you too, Richard.
Quoting Jeff9641:


I brought up the near 90 degree temps expected in C FL all next week because what this does is keep the gulf warm enough to sustain a potential hurricane down the road. SST at New Symrna last weekend are still in the upper 70's.


I'd say the only chance this storm will have a chance of obtianing a CAT 3 status within the Gulf of Mexico would be if it becomes an annular hurricane within the Carribean, which is what less than 3% of all storms?
Quoting seflagamma:

Thanks, i see he updated his blog last night as proof he is around... have not been around to see any post.. did he post here last night?


Briefly, but yes. I seen a couple of his LSU maps however, he didn't say much, in Dr. Masters blog anyway.
Myrammar/Burma is about to get Hit by a CAT 4 Tropical Cyclone Giri.
So much for a Major FL Hurricane. Nice try yesterday FL Wishcasters!!!! lol, way to hype and scare AGAIN!!!!! No Cat 3 winds for C-FL, sorry!!! More proof not to give much credibility to forecast models 120+ hours out!!!!

Looks like Dr. Masters was right. Hmmm go figure :)






I'm expecting 45-60 mph when I get home today (Almost 4:00PM CDT)



ASCAT passes have been correct - Well-defined circulation, and winds approaching 30-35 mph, but no convection.
1204. scott39
Richard sure is Growing and Showing off on the current Sat loop, to only be a 40mph TC!
MON-THU...GENERALLY WARM/HUMID TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. H100-H70 WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE S/SE ON MON...THEN S/SW TUE. THIS EXTENDED SRLY
COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE...PUSHING LCL PWAT
VALUES BACK ABV 1.5". MEANWHILE...A SMALL +70KT H25 JET STREAK OVER
NRN MEX AND THE DESERT SW WILL PUSH ACRS THE GOMEX OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD BE IN POSITION BY MON AFTN TO PLACE THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA UNDER IS ASCENDING RIGHT REAR QUAD. THE LAST FOUR RUNS OF
THE EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE HAVE FOCUSED ON THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME FOR
PRECIP...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE WX ELEMENTS IN PLAY. WILL
INTRODUCE SMALL POPS AREAWIDE MON AND BUMP MON NIGHT/TUE NUMBERS
INTO THE LOW SCT CATEGORY.

Quoting pioggiasuper:
So much for a Major FL Hurricane. Nice try yesterday FL Wishcasters!!!! lol, way to hype and scare AGAIN!!!!! No Cat 3 winds for C-FL, sorry!!! More proof not to give much credibility to forecast models 120+ hours out!!!!

Looks like Dr. Masters was right. Hmmm go figure :)






Give it up, lol. Since when does a 5 day forecast all of a sudden become accurate?

Not wishing here, just stating the facts.
1207. HCW
KMOB NWS

TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI)...ESSENTIALLY ATMOSPHERE RELOADS WITH
SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FLOW PATTERN AND UNSEASONABLY
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND. SPECTRAL MODELS DOING
THEIR TYPICAL "SONG AND DANCE" OF PUSHING TOO FAR SOUTH - TOO FAST
WITH DAY 7 BAROCLINIC WAVE PASSAGES AT THIS LATITUDE. UNLIKE LAST
NIGHT`S PACKAGE...COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS NOW PUSHED BACK TO FRIDAY
(VICE THU - BIG SURPRISE?). THIS SUGGESTS UPPER RIDGE OVER CARIBBEAN
WILL PLAY MORE OF A ROLE IN SLOWING UP THE ADVANCING UPPER
TROF...CAUSING THE TROUGH "SHEAR-OUT" SOME IN...AND PROLONG CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION`S TIME IN THE NEXT WARM SECTOR. THIS ALL TAKES
PLACE AS RICHARD`S REMNANTS (OR RICHARD AS A NAMED STORM? - TOO EARLY
TO TELL -) MOVES SOMEWHERE INTO THE CENTRAL GLFMEX ON THU AND
THEN FURTHER NORTHWARD THEREAFTER. THIS COULD MEAN MORE RAIN GIVEN
A SLOWER UPPER TROUGH ARRIVAL TIME. STILL BELIEVE WE HAVE TO BE ON
THE LOOKOUT FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT GIVEN SYNOPTIC SETUP. THE
EXACT DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION WILL DETERMINE THIS AND IT IS SIMPLY TOO
FAR OUT TO SAY FOR SURE
Jeff,

you are correct and I agree with you as well. I am just saying that looking at how much stronger the high is going to be, that trough swinging down has to pretty strong to pull Richard north

That's what I thought it depended on. I guess yesterday the models were thinking that the trough will pull Richard north in enough time to make it into the EGOM but things changed so quickly yesterday evening and could again as well.

I also think the same as you in that if Richard does get stronger he could move more northward and east but from satellite, it seems he is already going west
Quoting pioggiasuper:
So much for a Major FL Hurricane. Nice try yesterday FL Wishcasters!!!! lol, way to hype and scare AGAIN!!!!! No Cat 3 winds for C-FL, sorry!!! More proof not to give much credibility to forecast models 120+ hours out!!!!

Looks like Dr. Masters was right. Hmmm go figure :)





Like the perspective.
1213. kwgirl
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looking at this image can anyone tell me where its not going to go and where its most likly to go take your time think about it first

It's not going to go to Panama?
Recon is finding much different information compared to ADT estimates:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2010 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 15:58:33 N Lon : 80:24:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 991.2mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.9 4.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -74.4C Cloud Region Temp : -74.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Like the perspective.



Yeah.

We shouldn't trust a 120+ hr forecast but yet, the current 120+ forecast is accurate, makes no sense.
Good morning everyone

Richard appears to have begun a slow crawl to the West even though current advisory says stationary. Now located at 81 West

The ridge in the GOM is coming over the top of Richard which will do two things. The first is aid in some intensification which we are already seeing. The second will be to establish a steady motion off to the West initially. The influence of the ridge is fairly far South as seen in the image below and the next trough is still back by NW Texas so Richard should have a pretty good run West before starting to curve any.

Conditions on the SW coast of Grand Cayman show overcast skies, winds out of the East near 15 mph and pressure of 1012.3 and rising rapidly. Since midnight only .06 inches of rain which is good news as we are water logged here.

1218. divdog
Quoting Jeff9641:
MON-THU...GENERALLY WARM/HUMID TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. H100-H70 WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE S/SE ON MON...THEN S/SW TUE. THIS EXTENDED SRLY
COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE...PUSHING LCL PWAT
VALUES BACK ABV 1.5". MEANWHILE...A SMALL +70KT H25 JET STREAK OVER
NRN MEX AND THE DESERT SW WILL PUSH ACRS THE GOMEX OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD BE IN POSITION BY MON AFTN TO PLACE THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA UNDER IS ASCENDING RIGHT REAR QUAD. THE LAST FOUR RUNS OF
THE EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE HAVE FOCUSED ON THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME FOR
PRECIP...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE WX ELEMENTS IN PLAY. WILL
INTRODUCE SMALL POPS AREAWIDE MON AND BUMP MON NIGHT/TUE NUMBERS
INTO THE LOW SCT CATEGORY.

which basically translates into a 30% chance of rain next week.
Quoting Jeff9641:
MON-THU...GENERALLY WARM/HUMID TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. H100-H70 WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE S/SE ON MON...THEN S/SW TUE. THIS EXTENDED SRLY
COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE...PUSHING LCL PWAT
VALUES BACK ABV 1.5". MEANWHILE...A SMALL 70KT H25 JET STREAK OVER
NRN MEX AND THE DESERT SW WILL PUSH ACRS THE GOMEX OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD BE IN POSITION BY MON AFTN TO PLACE THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA UNDER IS ASCENDING RIGHT REAR QUAD. THE LAST FOUR RUNS OF
THE EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE HAVE FOCUSED ON THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME FOR
PRECIP...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE WX ELEMENTS IN PLAY. WILL...




you realize there talking about the ridge axisis right rear quadrant....NOT richie,as i said yesterday he aint going to fl as anything formidable,if at all!!!
INTRODUCE SMALL POPS AREAWIDE MON AND BUMP MON NIGHT/TUE NUMBERS
INTO THE LOW SCT CATEGORY.

1220. scott39
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Recon is finding much different information compared to ADT estimates:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2010 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 15:58:33 N Lon : 80:24:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 991.2mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.9 4.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -74.4C Cloud Region Temp : -74.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
That makes more since.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Yeah.

We shouldn't trust a 120 hr forecast but yet, the current 120 forecast is accurate, makes no sense.

Never said I didn't like all 120 hour forecasts; just the ones that didn't predict a strong ridge and thus shooting him through the gap ;)
Rich looks like he may rhyme with the B word today. Hope it's not another Mitch the B--ch.
1224. scott39
Quoting scott39:
That makes more since.
Sheesh, English Language---Sense
Quoting scott39:
That makes more since.
That's not accurate though. Recon is finding the real intensity, ADT is just a guess.
For precipitation, NOAA expects a swath from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains to be wetter than average. This also means a snowier-than-average winter is a strong bet in the Cascades, northern Rockies, and northern Plains.

Another area that could be wetter (and potentially snowier) than average stretches through the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Great Lakes.

Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning everyone

Richard appears to have begun a slow crawl to the West even though current advisory says stationary. Now located at 81 West

The ridge in the GOM is coming over the top of Richard which will do two things. The first is aid in some intensification which we are already seeing. The second will be to establish a steady motion off to the West initially. The influence of the ridge is fairly far South as seen in the image below and the next trough is still back by NW Texas so Richard should have a pretty good run West before starting to curve any.

Conditions on the SW coast of Grand Cayman show overcast skies, winds out of the East near 15 mph and pressure of 1012.3 and rising rapidly. Since midnight only .06 inches of rain which is good news as we are water logged here.


Morning Kman. Think the westward journey has commenced; and intenification is imminent. Great news about the rainfall there though. Was concerned about that since you guys got well more than your fair share in recent weeks.
Quoting divdog:
which basically translates into a 30% chance of rain next week.


30 or 40 maybe 50 percent is better than 0 percent for almost 4 weeks now.
Elongated, but better organized than earlier, and continuing to become better organized.

1230. scott39
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
That's not accurate though. Recon is finding the real intensity, ADT is just a guess.
What does it look like on the Sat to you? It looks like a strengthning TC to me!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Elongated, but better organized than earlier, and continuing to become better organized.



That is from early last night
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Upper Air Data Flights begin later today and this evening. Should concrete these models.

C. PROBABLE G-IV FLIGHT TAKING OFF AT 23/1730Z.

3. REMARKS: NOAA WILL FLY A SERIES OF RESEARCH MISSIONS
BEGINNING WITH A G-IV TAKEOFF AT 22/1730Z. THE P-3
WILL TAKE OFF EVERY 12 HRS STARTING AT 23/0200Z.


The G-IV flight this afternoon is for research and is storm centered which may not help the models much. The one tomorrow is tasked by NHC and should have a broader flight pattern which will aid the models more.

Today's flight pattern


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Elongated, but better organized than earlier, and continuing to become better organized.


Yup. As that trough continues to retreat, it's closer to go time.
Recon finding lots of 45 mph readings...
Quoting kmanislander:


That is from early last night


Sentence still applies
Back later
1238. scott39
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon finding lots of 45 mph readings...
I say its at least a 50mph TC. IMO
1239. IKE
Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update Oct. 22nd. 2010


Worth the update:)
Quoting scott39:
I say its at least a 50mph TC. IMO

I'm gonna go 50mph at this point too.
i wonder if oz left for fl yet????,lol
now i will bet 5 crows that richard moves west a bit then wnw- nw -n -nne as he intensifies a more northerly pull will be emminent, so yes i agree a westerly movement but not a whole lot Richard will pass GCM as a cat 3-4 approxmately 10-40M to the west and that ladies and gentlemen is my assement on richard, south florida watch out!!!! ps i really hope i am wrong.
K-man I also hope you are wrong but my thinking and observations are close to those of yours just not sure about the Hurricane part of it maybe a weak ts or td JMO
1246. wial
Anyone following Giri? It turned into a cat 4 overnight and is about to hit Burma.
-
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
now i will bet 5 crows that richard moves west a bit then wnw- nw -n -nne as he intensifies a more northerly pull will be emminent, so yes i agree a westerly movement but not a whole lot Richard will pass GCM as a cat 3-4 approxmately 10-40M to the west and that ladies and gentlemen is my assement on richard, south florida watch out!!!! ps i really hope i am wrong.
.....not even close, hes not going to drive into a ridge, west or wsw thru 36 hrs then maybe wnw imo...
close observation shows tha coc has located itself firmly below covection ,wind shear is minimal ocean temp is ripe and that aah yes that cylndrical shape with out flow are ever sp present watch for intensification today he will gain cat one by 1 pm today.
Quoting IKE:
Models...


Let's focus on the purple one. It has it hitting Tampa at a 90 degree angle.
Quoting IKE:
Models...


Looking more and more like Moby Richard is gonna die out in CA.
1252. 7544
morning all the gfdl change again now brings richie to the gulf looks like the ne bend after that now watch the hwrf and others to see if change to the right again its another flip flop day as richie gets more better looking
Quoting stillwaiting:
.....not even close, hes not going to drive into a ridge, west or wsw thru 36 hrs then maybe wnw imo...
ok ok... every one is entitled to thier own opion willing to bet some crows on that.
Quoting 7544:
morning all the gfdl change again now brings richie to the gulf looks like the ne bend after that now watch the hwrf and others to see if change to the right again its another flip flop day as richie gets more better looking


IMO, the models (minus a few minor flip-flops) have all been trending more West or South...Whatever you want to call it. More likely for a CA hit with lots of land interaction...Those poor people in that area have been hit time and time again this year.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
ok ok... every one is entitled to thier own opinion willing to bet some crows on that.
It's becoming clear that the XTRP has no idea where Richard will go.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
ok ok... every one is entitled to thier own opion willing to bet some crows on that.


"I'm your Huckleberry..."

I'll even let you pick the cooking style. :-)
1258. andy1
Giri looks like a chrisis for thoose poor countries
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


IMO, the models (minus a few minor flip-flops) have all been trending more West or South...Whatever you want to call it. More likely for a CA hit with lots of land interaction...Those poor people in that area have been hit time and time again this year.
so true let it go to the USA they can handle it!!!!
Where's reedzone? Gotta admit, he called it last night. Richie's looking a lot better this morning.
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


IMO, the models (minus a few minor flip-flops) have all been trending more West or South...Whatever you want to call it. More likely for a CA hit with lots of land interaction...Those poor people in that area have been hit time and time again this year.

That is what I'm thinking too at the moment. Belize and Honduras have been plagued by one heavy rain event after the other.
Quoting 7544:
morning all the gfdl change again now brings richie to the gulf looks like the ne bend after that now watch the hwrf and others to see if change to the right again its another flip flop day as richie gets more better looking



We'll see what the models look like tomorrow.
1263. wial
Re Giri, just saying, it may have broken records for rapid intensification in that part of the world and it's hitting the Burmese city of Sittwe directly. Could be the most catastrophic storm event in recent years. Reminds me in terms of size and intensity of Andrew. Might be worth a look.

ADT
Quoting portcharlotte:
I like you Ike but your drum beat gets boring and tiring.. Change your name to Spike or something else refreshing...sorry to sound rude but i enjoy wx changes and storms are what makes experiencing weather interesting.





Ikes drumbeat is to look at and focus on the positive side of things, not the negative. Yes, there are those who believe "wanting" a hurricane is a negative thought. We are in one of the most economically depressed times in history. Record unemployment, home values at historic lows and many business's and people are barely hanging on by a thread. I for one own a business and a hurricane sat this point would be a devastating blow to it and even more to the individual 33 employees. Someone here last night told Ike he rained on peoples party, he was in fact a party pooper. Well, there shouldn't be a party when it comes to the thought of a hurricane striking places like the west coast of florida where the economy is an even bigger disaster already. How could one have a "party" about that? I have seen cases this year on the blog where an atmosphere exists that one could imagine Adults jumping up and down, high five ing one another and hugging and kissing when a model comes out and is posted showing a cat 3 or 4 slamming a populated area. When all is said and done...Ikes the normal guy around here.
Realism wins again?

Much quieter in here today and the FL casters are gone, gotta say its kind of nice!...but as soon as a model brings it to FL, they will be back in swarms!
1268. 7544
hmmmm

Current Analysis
Date : 22 OCT 2010 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 15:58:53 N Lon : 80:22:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 991.2mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.9 4.4

Quoting ParanoidAndroid:
Where's reedzone? Gotta admit, he called it last night. Richie's looking a lot better this morning.


what did he call? wasn't Richard expected to slowly get better organized and strengthen?
Quoting barotropic:


Ikes drumbeat is to look at and focus on the positive side of things, not the negative. Yes, there are those who believe "wanting" a hurricane is a negative thought. We are in one of the most economically depressed times in history. Record unemployment, home values at historic lows and many business's and people are barely hanging on by a thread. I for one own a business and a hurricane sat this point would be a devastating blow to it and even more to the individual 33 employees. Someone here last night told Ike he rained on peoples party, he was in fact a party pooper. Well, there shouldn't be a party when it comes to the thought of a hurricane striking places like the west coast of florida where the economy is an even bigger disaster already. How could won have a "party" about that? I have seen this year cases this year on the blog where an atmosphere exists that one could imagine Adults jumping up and down, high five ing one another and hugging and kissing when a model comes out and is posted showing a cat 3 or 4 slamming a populated area. When all is said and done...Ikes the normal guy around here.

Fantastic point and perspective
Quoting pioggiasuper:
Much quieter in here today and the FL casters are gone, gotta say its kind of nice!...but as soon as a model brings it to FL, they will be back in swarms!

That you can count on.
Pretty darn good consensus

Quoting pioggiasuper:
Much quieter in here today and the FL casters are gone, gotta say its kind of nice!...but as soon as a model brings it to FL, they will be back in swarms!


Just a fact of the blog. Ike tends to focus on best case scenarios. I tend to focus on what the model of the day says. Others tend to focus on FL or NOLA hits... It's good that we have people in different camps to promote healthy discussion.
1274. Jax82
Richard is currently over some high TCHP, but hardly any in the Gulf anymore.

Quoting FSUCOOPman:


Just a fact of the blog. Ike tends to focus on best case scenarios. I tend to focus on what the model of the day says. Others tend to focus on FL or NOLA hits... It's good that we have people in different camps to promote healthy discussion.

Agreed. I like all perspectives and think no one's in superior or wrong. I enjoy every viewpoint.
Pressure 991 with 70 mph winds! WOW!
13:17:30Z 16.050N 80.883W

NE QUAD, Close to the center.
SFMR
36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph)
Basically Stationary and hard to find right now.



No appreciable strengthening yet.

Quoting Jeff9641:
Pressure 991 with 70 mph winds! WOW!

This might be the RI beginning to show up.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

This might be the RI beginning to show up.


Latest recon showing 991 with 59knt winds.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Pressure 991 with 70 mph winds! WOW!


Where are you seeing this, Jeff?
1284. 7544
if those numbers are right we may see hurricane richard earlier than expected he might just trow us a curve ball here latter on
Quoting Jeff9641:
Pressure 991 with 70 mph winds! WOW!


???


Recon is measuring 40mph winds in the NE quad right now?
Quoting Jeff9641:


Latest recon showing 991 with 59knt winds.

That's quite a jump from earlier intensity my friend.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Latest recon showing 991 with 59knt winds.


Wow, I'm kinda shocked... knew the potential was there, but didn't think it'd ramp up like that.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Latest recon showing 991 with 59knt winds.


I do not see that.
i repeat cat 1 by 1 pm today.
Very dangerous cyclone Giri


Morning everyone! Look at what we have here, no surprise to me. So is Richard still gonna dissipate? :P
Quoting cat5hurricane:

This might be the RI beginning to show up.


Exactly, which is what none of the models show. Throw them out. This baby will be a monster imo
Where are those readings?

Quoting oracle28:
It's becoming clear that the XTRP has no idea where Richard will go.
Hello if I may ask what is the XTRP,thank you!.
05 Air Force 10/22 13:16:30Z 1006.7mb (~29.73 inHg) 39kts (~44.8mph) HIGHEST SFMR READING SO FAR = 43kts (~49.4mph)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I do not see that.


Current Analysis
Date : 22 OCT 2010 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 15:58:53 N Lon : 80:22:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 991.2mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.9 4.4


1297. 7544
is richie blowin up ri taking place ?
Quoting mcluvincane:


Exactly, which is what none of the models show. Throw them out. This baby will be a monster imo

He'll have a nice run here alright. Models might have intensity a bit underestimated in the short term (12-36 hour time frame).
Quoting reedzone:
Morning everyone! Look at what we have here, no surprise to me. So is Richard still gonna dissipate? :P


Good Morning Reed. Your thoughts this morning?
Quoting Jeff9641:


Current Analysis
Date : 22 OCT 2010 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 15:58:53 N Lon : 80:22:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 991.2mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.9 4.4




LOL!!

Thats ADT

That makes absolutely no sense to use when we have recon.
Richard on visible also appears to be nearing hurricane strength.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Where are those readings?



Yes, please share the LINK, Jeff...
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello if I may ask what is the XTRP,thank you!.
it not a model its only used to show direction of path of current system in other words extrapolation of direction
just a adt estimate not recon
I say 50 mph. at 11 a.m.!

I did say that this would be on the range of 50-60 by the morning, 11 a.m. is still morning.
Quoting Jax82:
Richard is currently over some high TCHP, but hardly any in the Gulf anymore.



which is why I don't think it will become a major.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Where are those readings?



Nowhere.

We should have a new vortex soon, looks like they are in the center.
Quoting reedzone:
Morning everyone! Look at what we have here, no surprise to me. So is Richard still gonna dissipate? :P


Not yet, but in a couple days over land he will......than on to BOC.......and a load of dry air in the North gulf...if he gets that far.....
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 13:39Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 13:22:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°50'N 81°01'W (15.8333N 81.0167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 241 miles (388 km) to the S (174°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 87° at 40kts (From the E at ~ 46.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 427m (1,401ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 455m (1,493ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:06:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the NE (41°) from the flight level center
I think some of the people on here are drinking awful early in the morning.. and its not coffee... They are having problems even finding the COC and its no where near 9XX anything.. the lowest I see on the last run is 1009.



1311. Detrina
Quoting pioggiasuper:
Much quieter in here today and the FL casters are gone, gotta say its kind of nice!...but as soon as a model brings it to FL, they will be back in swarms!



Wow I live in Florida and I never hope we get the doomsday event and don't leave the blog because Florida as we know it isn't going to disappear.
I stay as long as someone is in possible danger of being impacted by a storm.
I also am offended that I am contiunally grouped with a bunch freaks that seem to want the state to disappear for some odd reason.

I also think those that continue to make comments about Florida wishcasters doomcaster etc etc should take a look at themselves as well to see what they might be harboring under their need to cast people in to groups that they consider inferior to themselves...just my two cents as a Florida resident who is tired of being lumped in with the freaks!
Have a Nice Day Everyone, I will be around to see how the storm plays out and who I should have good thoughts for in their tropical trouble.
Not even remotely close to a hurricane. The Min pressure says 1010.
Quoting reedzone:
I say 50 mph. at 11 a.m.!

I did say that this would be on the range of 50-60 by the morning, 11 a.m. is still morning.


How VAIN!!!!! LOL.....hurricane center had forecast a 50mph +....also by 11 am this morn in last nights disc......
Quoting barotropic:


Not yet, but in a couple days over land he will......than on to BOC.......and a load of dry air in the North gulf...if he gets that far.....

I think that ridge will be strong enough to allow that to happen, regardless of Richard's intensity.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Pressure 991 with 70 mph winds! WOW!


Not quite

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg) - Extrapolated

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
Quoting Orcasystems:
I think so of the people on here are drinking awful early in the morning.. and its not coffee... They are having problems even finding the COC and its no where near 9XX anything.. the lowest I see on the last run is 1009.





They need to go to the north side of the storm, thats where winds should be around 40-50 mph. with pressures down to 1000 mlb. or lower. The center of circulation is right on the southern part of the convective ball (CDO)
1317. shawn26
It is hard to believe this storm is still in the 40MPH range
Morning everyone. Looks like the Shift to the West occured as i pointed out yesterday evening. Don't let this fool the people in Florida as a SubTropical system could develop from Richard as he mixes with the cold front and pulls to the NE in time.
Based on the visible banding features, maybe the LLC is further north in the convective ball. Interesting..
Quoting reedzone:


They need to go to the north side of the storm, thats where winds should be around 40-50 mph. with pressures down to 1000 mlb. or lower. The center of circulation is right on the southern part of the convective ball (CDO)


Mellow out Reed... your guesstimation versus actually onsite real time data from a HH do not jive.. and I must admit... the HH wins the argument.
Quoting barotropic:


How VAIN!!!!! LOL.....hurricane center had forecast a 50mph +....also by 11 am this morn in last nights disc......


Wow, just like scottsvb you find every way to attack me on here..
It's almost November, not September that ridge is a progressive set-up moving east. SW flow is waiting for Richard when it approaches the Yucatan. You can't expect the pattern to continue forever that storms will head west into Mexico. Just because the models shifted does not mean Richard is reading the models before he decides where to go. If his motion has any kind of northerly component in the short term than he will make the channel easily. Also, the slower he goes the more the pattern involving the trough will affect him.
1324. 7544
we may see a center relocted to the north ?
Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning everyone. Looks like the Shift to the West occured as i pointed out yesterday evening. Don't let this fool the people in Florida as a SubTropical system could develop from Richard as he mixes with the cold front and pulls to the NE in time.


If it doesn't die out in CA what ever is left should come this way with the trough, I agree. Personally I would love some rain out of this. Trend this year though is to get nadda so, that's what's expected by me ATM.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning everyone. Looks like the Shift to the West occured as i pointed out yesterday evening. Don't let this fool the people in Florida as a SubTropical system could develop from Richard as he mixes with the cold front and pulls to the NE in time.

Are you thinking the entire system or just some remnants?
we dodged many close calls this season. maybe our run of good luck is coming to a close. most of the models show richard coming awfully close to the bay islands of honduras. will ck in for continued updated in a little while. need to make some plans. rg
Quoting 7544:
we may see a center relocted to the north ?


Maybe, if you look at the bands around the system, it would make sense for the center to be further north in the CDO.
Taking a look at the Hurricane Hunter data, Tropical Storm Richard has changed very little over the past 12 hours with only a slight increase in wind speed and now what appears to be a rise in surface pressures. Both indicate that Richard is barely maintaining tropical storm status at the moment despite the marked increase in convection over the past 24 hours. But, with shear evidently decreasing and dry air becoming less of a problem throughout the day, Richard should gradually become better organized and strengthen in the next 12 to 24 hours.
who is this bartropic,
Quoting ParanoidAndroid:
Where's reedzone? Gotta admit, he called it last night. Richie's looking a lot better this morning.
...so did the nhc,he basically repeated the 11pm discussion...
recon must of found a false center...center must be more north than they thought it would be
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Are you thinking the entire system or just some remnants?


Just the rememants but, just looking at the models closer heck they now don't even show the cold front moving into the south it lifts out to the north and never makes it.....not sure that moisture ever makes it to florida at all...
Quoting reedzone:


Maybe, if you look at the bands around the system, it would make sense for the center to be further north in the CDO.
agreed
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Taking a look at the Hurricane Hunter data, Tropical Storm Richard has changed very little over the past 12 hours with only a slight increase in wind speed and now what appears to be a rise in surface pressures. Both indicate that Richard is barely maintaining tropical storm status at the moment despite the marked increase in convection over the past 24 hours. But, with shear evidently decreasing and dry air becoming less of a problem throughout the day, Richard should gradually become better organized and strengthen in the next 12 to 24 hours.
1338. shawn26
Looks like this storm is going to be a hard one to get a handle on.
1339. jasblt
Fights are starting this early..jeez, I could listen to my kids and hear less than this.
Quoting barotropic:


LOL............oops sorry spinzone.

reported making names at ppl also it isnt funny
Quoting TampaSpin:


Just the rememants but, just looking at the models closer heck they now don't even show the cold front moving into the south it lifts out to the north and never makes it.....not sure that moisture ever makes it to florida at all...

Yeah...I saw that. Still hoping that's not the case as you guys need something in the form of precip.
1342. Jax82
Little Richie on the RAMSDIS. The sun is up and shining on him. Look at all those Thunderstorms firing at the center. Definately a sign of strengthening!

RAMSDIS tropical floater
Quoting reedzone:
I guess Richard is dying right?? You need to understand that we are in DMIN and also notice a nice convective pop up storm forming west of the LLC. Tonight, this will probably organize into a strong Tropical Storm. Everytime you see a storm look like this in favorable conditions means it is just undergoing organization, it takes time. I expect this to ramp up with convection forming around the center late tonight.


I made this statement around 9 p.m. last night, 2 hours before the 11 p.m. discussion, nice try bashers. Once again, I back up my statements with facts. I admit, this is not a strong TS, but close, a 50 mph. TS.
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello if I may ask what is the XTRP,thank you!.


XTRP is short for extrapolated.

If you take the current direction of the storm and draw a straight line in that direction, that's where it appears to be headed.

Only problem is that hurricanes don't normally move in dead, straight lines...
Quoting BobinTampa:


what did he call? wasn't Richard expected to slowly get better organized and strengthen?


Just that the convection would blow up overnight.
Something quite noteworthy though from the Hurricane Hunter data is that Richard no longer has any southward component to its motion. Movement to the west is taking place with maybe even a slight northward component based upon the last recon fix.
1347. hcubed
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello if I may ask what is the XTRP,thank you!.


Yes, oracle28, tell us all why you consider the XTRP to be the most reliable model.

Prove to us that you know what you're talking about.

Make it a teachable moment...
Gotta love this season. When you want a ridge to hold, a trough takes it away. When you want a trough to come in, it weakens and a ridge holds.

I want all the hours I wasted watching storms on this blog back. I probably blew 50k worth of billables.

2010, the year Khan prevailed over Kirk.
For those that said this is a Richard is nearly a Hurricane....get off the creamer in your coffee.....its maybe 50mph max maybe by 11pm tonite we might see a Hurricane and possbily by 5pm but i doubt it.
Quoting Jax82:
Little Richie on the RAMSDIS. The sun is up and shining on him. Look at all those Thunderstorms firing at the center. Definately a sign of strengthening!

RAMSDIS tropical floater

You got it.
1351. jambev
Here in Kingston, the sun is out in all it's glory with very little cloud to be seen. This will probably not hold for the day but I agree that richard is moving very slowly,slightly due south of west
HH is making another quick run inbound.. they didn't like the fix either



Quoting reedzone:


STOP! Now!
Reed! Lighten up! Do what you do and don't listen to these people. Take a lesson from Ike. He gets it 10 times as much as you and He just keeps doing his thing. Most of us on here enjoy your opioion and posts.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You got it.


RAMSDIS floaters are more faster then the NHC floaters, gotta love them.
1355. P451
Richard still weak. I expected more development.

Meanwhile the WPAC has really awakened including the N Indian Ocean.

I guess we're seeing a general pattern change over the Pacific. Is this a signal of a changing La Nina to Neutral in the coming weeks/months?

Quoting reedzone:


RAMSDIS floaters are more faster then the NHC floaters, gotta love them.

Based on their updating intervals, they come first before anything NHC floater-related.
New Blog..
Quoting stillwaiting:
...so did the nhc,he basically repeated the 11pm discussion...


lol. just let the man have his compliment. sheesh
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


If it doesn't die out in CA what ever is left should come this way with the trough, I agree. Personally I would love some rain out of this. Trend this year though is to get nadda so, that's what's expected by me ATM.



Strict water restrictions and crunchy lawns on the way for FL, lol.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
it not a model its only used to show direction of path of current system in other words extrapolation of direction
Thank you!!
Quoting scooster67:
Reed! Lighten up! Do what you do and don't listen to these people. Take a lesson from Ike. He gets it 10 times as much as you and He just keeps doing his thing. Most of us on here enjoy your opioion and posts.


As long as he continues to react like that, people will continue to do that to him. It's a low-level psychology experiment...
Quoting reedzone:


I made this statement around 9 p.m. last night, 2 hours before the 11 p.m. discussion, nice try bashers. Once again, I back up my statements with facts. I admit, this is not a strong TS, but close, a 50 mph. TS.


Hi reedzone-

You, like Levi, and Jeff (the real one) have high credibility scores in my book. Thanks for the information. If Richard gets too strong (RI) too soon will there be more of a northward(Poleward) motion?
1363. Becca36
New Blog!
1353:attacking someone is against the blog rules here so stop or leave
Oh dear...I KNEW I should have been tracking this one!



Category four Cyclone Giri rapidly intensified last night (EDT time) from a weak tropical storm to a potentially catastrophic category major cyclone. This looks like another major disaster for Myanmar (Burma), which was hit by Cyclone Nargis in 2008, which similarly strengthened to a category four prior to landfall. Giri has made a direct landfall in Kyaukpyu, Myanmar, a town of approximately 25,000 people.



This is Giri at peak strength. Death toll and damages are unknown.



The above track is for NARGIS in 2008. That storm hit the Irrawady Delta, and the Yangon/Rangoon area, a very highly populated and low-lying region. Nargis killed about 140,000 people and caused $10 billion USD in damage.



Animation of Giri making landfall today. Here is the approximate storm surge threat in the area affected by Giri.

Giri strengthened very rapidly in the Bay of Bengal. It was situated over 29C SSTs when it made the jump from a tropical storm to a category four in less than 24 hours. Here is a news link to the storm's landfall.



Giri's lowest pressure was 950 mb, whereas Nargis' was 962 mb.