WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tropical Storm Paula forming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:30 PM GMT on October 11, 2010

Data from the Hurricane Hunters, land stations, and satellite imagery reveal that the strong tropical disturbance centered near the coast of Honduras just west of the border with Nicaragua is now Tropical Storm Paula. Paula is the 16th named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. The Hurricane Hunters reported a central pressure of 1001 mb and top surface winds of 45 mph in their 2:11pm EDT center fix. Satellite imagery shows a well-organized system with a modest but increasing amount of intense thunderstorm activity, and some respectable low-level spiral bands. Water vapor satellite loops reveal that Paula has been able to substantially moisten the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean over the past day, and dry air will be less of an impediment to development than it was yesterday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. Puerto Lempira, Honduras reported sustained winds of 35 mph at 12pm CST this afternoon, with 3.31" of rain from the storm thus far.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Paula.

Forecast for Paula
Proximity to land is hampering Paula's ability to intensify some, and the storm's northwest movement of 10 mph will take the center far enough away from the coast of Honduras this evening to substantially increase the storm's ability to intensify. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay mostly in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday afternoon, then increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, for the remainder of the week. The computer models predict Paula will continue on a northwest motion then turn more north-northwest on Wednesday, which would take the storm close to landfall on the coast of Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Paula may be approaching Category 2 hurricane status, due to the moderate wind shear, SSTs of 29°C, and a sufficiently moist atmosphere. On Wednesday, there is considerable doubt about the future path of Paula. Steering currents in the Western Caribbean will collapse, potentially allowing Paula to wander in the region for many days, as predicted by the GFS and HWRF models. It is also possible that Paula will push far enough inland over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that the storm will dissipate, as predicted by the NOGAPS model. Finally, if Paula grows strong quickly, and pushes far enough north, it could get caught up a strong trough of low pressure predicted to traverse the U.S. this week (and spawn a Nor'easter for New England this weekend.) In this scenario, offered by the GFDL model, Paula would make a sharp turn to the east-northeast, hit western Cuba, bring tropical storm-force finds to the Florida Keys on Thursday, then move into the Bahama Islands by Friday or Saturday. It is too early to say which of these scenarios is the most likely, as the storm is just forming and the models do not have a good handle on it yet. Regardless, northern Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula will receive dangerous flooding rains from Paula today through Wednesday.

The U.S. drought in major hurricanes
On average, the U.S. gets hit by one major Category 3 or stronger hurricane every two years. This year, the team of hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University called for a 76% chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. in their June forecast. However, the odds of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. are rapidly dwindling. Over the past fifty years, the only Category 3 or stronger hurricanes to hit the U.S. after October 1 were Hilda (October 3, 1964), Opal (October 4, 1995), and Wilma (October 24, 2005). Hilda and Opal were already named tropical storms as of October 1, so Wilma was the major hurricane that formed after October 1 to hit the U.S. during this period. Although we still need to keep a wary eye on developments in the Western Caribbean over the next few weeks, the odds are that 2010 will join 1951 as the only year to have five or more major hurricanes in the Atlantic, but no landfalling major hurricane in the U.S. (1958 is also listed as such a year, but a re-analysis effort is showing that Hurricane Helene hit North Carolina as a major hurricane that year.) If 2010 finishes without a major hurricane hitting the U.S., this will mark the first such five-year stretch since 1910 - 1914.


Figure 2. Hurricane Wilma over South Florida as a Category 3 hurricane on October 24, 2005. Wilma was the last major hurricane to hit the U.S.

However, some caveats are required. Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, which both made landfall in the U.S. in 2008 as top-end Category 2 storms with 110 mph winds, would probably have been classified as Category 3 hurricanes had they occurred early in the 20th century. This is because in past, when there were not any reliable wind measurements in the vicinity of a landfalling hurricane (a common occurrence), the storm was classified based on its central pressure. Gustav and Ike had central pressures of 957 and 952 mb, respectively, which would have qualified them as Category 3 storms. Similarly, Hurricane Floyd of 1999 and Hurricane Isabel of 2002 (though not within the last five years) were strong Category 2 hurricanes with 105 mph winds at landfall, but had central pressures of 956 mb. These hurricanes would also have been classified as Category 3 hurricanes in the past. There are many storms from the 1930s, 1940s, and 1950s that will likely change their landfall classification once re-analysis efforts are completed over the next few years. One case is Hurricane Ten of 1949, which is listed as having winds of a low-end Category 4 hurricane (135 mph) just before landfall, which would make it the only October major hurricane to make landfall in Texas. However, the hurricane is only given a Category 2 strength at landfall, based on its central pressure.

Prior to 1960, there were five major hurricanes that hit Florida in October. Most notable of these is Hurricane King, which hit downtown Miami on October 18, 1950, as a Category 3 hurricane.

Record quiet hurricane and typhoon seasons in the Pacific
Over in the Western Pacific, it is currently the quietest typhoon season on record, according to statistics computed by forecaster Paul Stanko at the NWS office on Guam. On average, by this point in the season, there should have been 21 named storms, 13 typhoons, and 3 supertyphoons (storms with 150+ mph winds.) So far in 2010, there have been just 12 named storms, 6 typhoons, and no supertyphoons. The record lows for the Western Pacific (since 1951) are 18 named storms, 9 typhoons, and 0 supertyphoons. We have a good chance of beating or tying all of those records. Over the in the Eastern Pacific, it has also been a near record-quiet season. On average, the Eastern Pacific has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes in a season. So far in 2010, there have been 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The record quietest season since 1966 was the year 1977, when the Eastern Pacific had 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes. Climatology suggests that on average, we can expect just one more named storm in the Eastern Pacific this late in the season, so there is a good chance that the 2010 season is over. La Niña is largely responsible to the quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season, due in part to the cool sea surface temperatures it brought. La Niña also commonly causes less active Western Pacific typhoon seasons, since the warmest waters there shift closer to Asia, reducing the amount of time storms have over water.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Yes, in Weatherguy03's blog at the time. I was under a different handle then, ProgressivePulse.

Oh, I remember your handle! I was StormDrain then. lol
Quoting centex:
hydromet logon? Anyone else getting that?


Yes, bump to the next page or the poster needs to remove it.
Been hitting cancel, what is it?
Fluctuating in intensity. Maybe even weakening. Don't see an eye yet.

Is a recon plane enroute yet? If not when does it go out?
Quoting alvarig1263:
Is a recon plane enroute yet? If not when does it go out?


03:51:00Z 22.900N 86.700W 399.4 mb
(~ 11.79 inHg) 7,607 meters
(~ 24,957 feet)
hey KOTG I do not think that the COC is located where you have it at I guess we just have to wait to see what the HH finds I still say it is not passed 17.5N 85.0W it looks to be more like at 17.3N 84.6W
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
cayman islands gonna have a very wet night with convection building north and east from the storm


Yup, had some light rain on and off for the last few hours. Lots of lightning, but no thunder.
1012. 7544
Quoting alvarig1263:
Is a recon plane enroute yet? If not when does it go out?


left at 10 pm on the way there now any reports yet ?
18Z GFS can be thrown out. Apparently it's having a "Felix" moment and does not even show Paula. Horrible model run, plain horrible!
1014. 7544
50 plus hrs gfs thru the channel she goes more to come next
1015. Seastep
As I said, TS, I hear you on the shear. Your point is valid.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey KOTG I do not think that the COC is located where you have it at I guess we just have to wait to see what the HH finds I still say it is not passed 17.5N 85.0W it looks to be more like at 17.3N 84.6W


17.1N 84.6W Just east of the dry air slug.

Quoting druseljic:
Been hitting cancel, what is it?


Somebody tried to post something that requires login, can't hotlink to it.
Hurricane Hunter about 100 liles north of Cancun,Mexico heading toward Paula.
The 00Z run, which is still running can be thrown out, a garbage run as well. Shows no low when Paula is near Hurricane strength in reality. Horrible model runs with this storm.
miles LOL
Quoting 7544:


left at 10 pm on the way there now any reports yet ?


There would be if they had an SR-71. But they don't, so we got a bit of a wait. ;-)
Quoting 7544:


left at 10 pm on the way there now any reports yet ?


s of the last observation at 03:51:00Z, the plane's...

Direction of Travel: SSE (155°)
Location: 122 miles (196 km) to the N (4°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
Hunters should start the decent soon

04:01:00Z 22.117N 86.333W 399.5 mb
(~ 11.80 inHg) 7,611 meters
(~ 24,970 feet)
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Hurricane Hunter about 100 liles north of Cancun,Mexico heading toward Paula.


Ok great. Can't wait to hear what the HH find now.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey KOTG I do not think that the COC is located where you have it at I guess we just have to wait to see what the HH finds I still say it is not passed 17.5N 85.0W it looks to be more like at 17.3N 84.6W

i have it at 17.10n/85.08w
About 65 miles north of Cancun Mexico now
Shooting the gap now



I'm interested to see what she does with this dry air slug. It appears to be at the center and if it's truly RI, it will be gone soon.
NOAA Ship at Port of Pensacola
Link

Its soo sad that the GOM is soooo bone dry!
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 04:07Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 18
Storm Name: Paula (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 05

Coordinates: 22.2N 86.4W
Location: 78 miles (125 km) to the NNE (21°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.

Remarks Section...

DEW POINT NEG 50 DEGREES C
Cuban Radar images Link




Wow! If Paula can go further north and then move east, there is a big pocket of hot water for her on the north side of Cuba!

04:11:00Z 21.367N 85.933W 399.5 mb
(~ 11.80 inHg) 7,608 meters
(~ 24,961 feet)
TropicalStormPaula's heading had remained*steady at (9.2degrees north of) NorthWest
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~11.3mph(~18.2km/h)
TropicalDepression18
11Oct 12pmGMT - - 15.2n83.2w - - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - - 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF
TS.Paula
11Oct 06pmGMT - - 15.7n83.7w - - 45knots(~83.3km/h) - - 1001mb -- NHC-ATCF
11Oct 09pmGMT - - 16.0n84.0w - - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - . - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#1
12Oct 12amGMT - - 16.4n84.3w - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - - 998mb -- NHC.Adv.#1A
12Oct 03amGMT - - 16.8n84.6w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#2

Copy &paste 15.2n83.2w-15.7n83.7w,15.7n83.7w-16.0n84.0w, 16.0n84.0w-16.4n84.3w, 16.4n84.3w-16.8n84.6w, pnd, cun, mzo, 16.8n84.6w-20.36n87.33w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 15^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~25hours from now to Chacalal,QuintanaRoo,Mexico

* The 0.1degree difference is well within rounding error
^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
The following 3 line-segments span 3hours between dots.
The southernmost line-segment spans 6hours between dots.
Man, how can you quote 7544, if we're still on posts 1030's??

Quoting CaptnDan142:


There would be if they had an SR-71. But they don't, so we got a bit of a wait. ;-)
1039. centex
Interesting that the NHC is not very bullish on Paula, only taking her to low end Cat 2. They must be pretty confident that dry air and shear will affect Paula soon.

Paula, being small, looks to me like she will spin up to something more than that, even if the dry air and shear start hurting her later.
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 04:07Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 18
Storm Name: Paula (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 05

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Tuesday, 4:00Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 22.2N 86.4W
Location: 78 miles (125 km) to the NNE (21°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,190 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 230° at 16 knots (From the SW at ~ 18.4 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -16°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Is most likely too dry to measure. If it is instead colder than -49.4°C, it will appear in the remarks section.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Clear
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,600 geopotential meters

Remarks Section
USAF-WC-130 MISSION TYPE...RECON...AS OF THE LAST OBSERVATION AT 04:11:00Z, THE PLANE'S...

DIRECTION OF TRAVEL: SE (137°)
LOCATION: 60 MILES (97 km) TO THE ENE (75°) FROM CANCUN, QUINTANA ROO, MEXICO.
Also interesting how Paula is not really showing up on the GFS.
AF303 100 miles SE of Cancun Mexico
Dry air slug did a number on the Convection.

1046. centex
The convection doesn't look that degraded to me, and a lot more circular.
Early Morning all,

Some enjoyed my in-depth analysis on Otto, so I decided to do an encore. An in-depth analysis and current outlook on Paula. Hope you like this one too.
Personally, I hate dry air!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The convection doesn't look that degraded to me, and a lot more circular.


Yeah, I was just about to say that. I definitely agree with you, Paula looking more circular and better with time.
1053. JLPR2
The most recent picture I could find and it is an hour old :(


* updated
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The convection doesn't look that degraded to me, and a lot more circular.


??
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yeah
did you hear about the big t.storms hit new york city..stop the jets game for 45 mintes.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Personally, I hate dry air!


Agreed lol - How far is the HH Aircraft from the investigation area? Do you know?
Although Paula does look pretty good Jason (I'd give her about a B+) I think the odds of her being a Cat 4 by 8 am are less than 1% ;)

Although 24 hours from now, I would bump the probability up to 5% or so.
Grand Cayman Islands weather info... Several places to look info...
Link

not sure why people are so concerned about the moisture in the GOM. this is 2-3 days away from even getting close to the GOM and there is moisture pouring in from different directions. In addition, it is upper level moisture and it is also from tropical sources (not arctic air), so maybe i am missing something?

Link

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html


Link

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html


the dry air is less of a concern now than it has been for 2 days....and the moistening trend is likely to continue.
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/live/
Quoting JLPR2:
The most recent picture I could find and it is an hour old :(



That's not bad, that was taken at 12:01 EDT. Its now 12:40 EDT. By the way in that high-res infrared image, see subtle banding features right at the center, Paula's got a nice central internal structure.
AF303 about 165 miles SE of Cancun or about 130 miles from COC.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah, I was just about to say that. I definitely agree with you, Paula looking more circular and better with time.


JSL imagery was developed to detect intensifying cyclones. The purples in the loop display sustainable convection that grows the cyclone, the purples are nearly gone ATM.
USAF-WC-130 MISSION TYPE...RECON...AS OF THE LAST OBSERVATION AT 04:31:00Z, THE PLANE'S...

DIRECTION OF TRAVEL: SE (137°)
LOCATION: 144 miles (232 km) TO THE SE (127°) FROM CANCUN, QUINTANA ROO, MEXICO.
Just snapped this about an hour ago, South side of Grand Cayman looking Westward - about an hour ago....

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/live/


I already know where the data is and use it myself on Google Earth. Dowbside is I'm on my iPhone and I dont have access to a computer. So I was just looking for someone to post some updates reguarding the HH mission right now since I can't view it myself.
Coordinates: 19.9N 85.1W
Quoting alvarig1263:


I already know where the data is and use it myself on Google Earth. Dowbside is I'm on my iPhone and I dont have access to a computer. So I was just looking for someone to post some updates reguarding the HH mission right now since I can't view it myself.


Coordinates: 19.9N 85.1W

Getting close.
We're past satellite eclipse season right?
04:41:00Z 19.300N 84.567W 552.3 mb
(~ 16.31 inHg) 5,090 meters
(~ 16,699 feet) 1008.4 mb
(~ 29.78 inHg) - From 153° at 21 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 24.1 mph)
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Coordinates: 19.9N 85.1W


Thanks
Thant dang GOM wad so orange on water vaopr from bein so dry it caused me a migrane, thats whay i hate dry air.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


JSL imagery was developed to detect intensifying cyclones. The purples in the loop display sustainable convection that grows the cyclone, the purples are nearly gone ATM.


How neat! I never knew that about JSL imagery. I thought JSL was just another color scheme like the AVN, etc. Yeah, defenitetly see purples have declined, but developing storms tend to pulse there convection in and out. Probably Paula's on a pulse down now, and will likely still be at 70 mph winds at 2 AM and 5 AM. Somehow though it woudln't surprise me either if it became a hurricane around the 5 or 11 AM advisory.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
04:41:00Z 19.300N 84.567W 552.3 mb
(~ 16.31 inHg) 5,090 meters
(~ 16,699 feet) 1008.4 mb
(~ 29.78 inHg) - From 153° at 21 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 24.1 mph)


Descending now.
i think so ssig
HH starting to pick up spme breezes
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


How neat! I never knew that about JSL imagery. I thought JSL was just another color scheme like the AVN, etc. Yeah, defenitetly see purples have declined, but developing storms tend to pulse there convection in and out. Probably Paula's on a pulse down now, and will likely still be at 70 mph winds at 2 AM and 5 AM. Somehow though it woudln't surprise me either if it became a hurricane around the 5 or 11 AM advisory.


If you look a few posts back I stated I wanted to see how Paula handled this dry air slug that made it to the center. It obviously weakened the convection temporarily. If she's truly in RI, it will be gone soon.
Quoting Caymanfishnut:
Just snapped this about an hour ago, South side of Grand Cayman looking Westward - about an hour ago....



Swank photo. Very nice.
1080. JLPR2
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
We're past satellite eclipse season right?


Nope, we are blind right now, NASA is still updating though...
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


How neat! I never knew that about JSL imagery. I thought JSL was just another color scheme like the AVN, etc. Yeah, defenitetly see purples have declined, but developing storms tend to pulse there convection in and out. Probably Paula's on a pulse down now, and will likely still be at 70 mph winds at 2 AM and 5 AM. Somehow though it woudln't surprise me either if it became a hurricane around the 5 or 11 AM advisory.
sorry but I belive this is a hurricane and will be a hurricane even if it had some dry air intrution hope I spelled it right it's late and Im getting sleepy
Sorry, this might be a little easier to see, lightning everywhere here in Grand Cayman - mostly to the west...



04:51:00Z 18.850N 84.183W 842.8 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,591 meters
(~ 5,220 feet) 1011.4 mb
(~ 29.87 inHg)
Quoting WeatherLoverinMiami:
sorry but I belive this is a hurricane and will be a hurricane even if it had some dry air intrution hope I spelled it right it late and Im getting sleepy


Yeah, I am inclined to belive you on that, either she's a hurricane or really really close to that. That's why I was saying I wouldn't be surprised if she was classified as a hurricane by 5 or 11 AM.

I wish I could get sleepy, instead I keep becoming a night-blogger, LOL.
Quoting Caymanfishnut:
Sorry, this might be a little easier to see, lightning everywhere here in Grand Cayman - mostly to the west...





Awesome Pic
1086. JLPR2
Quoting Caymanfishnut:
Sorry, this might be a little easier to see, lightning everywhere here in Grand Cayman - mostly to the west...





UH!!
That's a really neat photo!
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah, I am inclined to belive you on that, either she's a hurricane or really really close to that. That's why I was saying I wouldn't be surprised if she was classified as a hurricane by 5 or 11 AM.

I wish I could get sleepy, instead I keep becoming a night-blogger, LOL.



based on the fact that they have estimated this at 70 mph sustained i would not be surprised to see the hh's announce this has 75 mph sustained when they do their roundabout. it may already be a cat 1.
1088. 7544
gfs shows richard close to so fla also idk lol
You should make some money on that photo, lol, keep em coming.
Quoting Caymanfishnut:
Sorry, this might be a little easier to see, lightning everywhere here in Grand Cayman - mostly to the west...




Good photography.
Quoting Caymanfishnut:
Sorry, this might be a little easier to see, lightning everywhere here in Grand Cayman - mostly to the west...





Yeah, wish I had a photogenic sky to take pics of. Looking up right now, solid black, nothing else, LOL.

Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



based on the fact that they have estimated this at 70 mph sustained i would not be surprised to see the hh's announce this has 75+ mph sustained when they do their roundabout.

I am thinking 70 to 75 mph winds at 2 AM and 5 AM. After all, the 70 mph wind was an estimate and not measured. It may have been pushed to 70 mph a little early, and they still may find it at 70 mph in their next pass. But I also believe you could be right about finding 75 mph too. I am on the fence of thinking 100% this'll be 75 mph at the next pass, I feel more like 50%.
I think the odds are greater than not that Paula is a hurricane now. 70% or so.
04:59:30Z 18.567N 83.850W 843.0 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,588 meters
(~ 5,210 feet) 1011.2 mb
(~ 29.86 inHg)

SFMR is on
19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr)
The SSD floaters are Quite Old. The Latest pics show dry air did quite a number on intensification.

Thanks Fellas, not really me - more the camera... it's a little Lumix TZ7, makes fools like me look good!
18L/H/P/C1
MARK
17.10N/85.08W

Dropsonde on the northern edge of convection.

1011mb (29.85 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 28.6°C (83.5°F) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 100° (from the E) 12 knots (14 mph)
1098. 7544
that blob ne drifting nne is part of paula ?and will bring rain or more to so fla latter on today if that could be her offspring its starting to blossom now also just south of cuba
Nice photo.... Do you know any Live Radar link for Cayman???
Quoting Caymanfishnut:
Sorry, this might be a little easier to see, lightning everywhere here in Grand Cayman - mostly to the west...



Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
The SSD floaters are Quite Old. The Latest pics show dry air did quite a number on intensification.

It looks more to me, having finally broke free of the Honduran coastline, she just took a deep breath.

She's just winding up for the pitch.
1102. ackee
Looks like paula is moving a bit slower now
I'm out for the night... you guys have fun

Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Post 1096, Plymouth State Weather Center loops, now I am thinking Paula can't be a hurricane right now.

At first in those loops, Paula's central clouds keep growing, growing, nice, nice, yeah, yeah! Then all of the sudden in the last couple of frames in that loop, its like splat! The convection breaking up at the center a bit. I am inclined to that Paula's coughing on some dry air right at this moment, and won't be a hurricane at 2 AM or 5 AM.
000
URNT11 KNHC 120511
97779 05044 30184 8370/ 15200 16024 18129 /2519
RMK AF303 0218A PAULA OB 08
SWS = 13 KTS
NE Entry Point
;
Any recon wind reports coming in yet?
The stronger she gets, the highest prob. to impose her rules & conditions

000
UZNT13 KNHC 120500
XXAA 62058 99188 70842 04584 99011 28632 10012 00100 27826 10013
92788 22609 13022 85522 18608 14023 88999 77999
31313 09608 80451
61616 AF303 0218A PAULA OB 07
62626 SPL 1884N08416W 0454 MBL WND 10515 AEV 20801 DLM WND 12519
011844 WL150 10012 082 REL 1883N08415W 045135 SPG 1884N08416W 045
358 =
XXBB 62058 99188 70842 04584 00011 28632 11850 18608 22844 17405
21212 00011 10012 11981 10014 22952 12022 33890 13023 44866 13519
55855 14024 66844 14522
31313 09608 80451
61616 AF303 0218A PAULA OB 07
62626 SPL 1884N08416W 0454 MBL WND 10515 AEV 20801 DLM WND 12519
011844 WL150 10012 082 REL 1883N08415W 045135 SPG 1884N08416W 045
358 =
;
Quoting sunlinepr:
The stronger she gets, the highest prob. to impose her rules & conditions



Huh?
First penetration underway for those following.
Quoting sunlinepr:
The stronger she gets, the highest prob. to impose her rules & conditions


Not True
Related to fight Dry Air and Shear...

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Huh?
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
First penetration underway for those following.


Sounds good. Post some of the high wind reports if you could. Thanks
Quoting sunlinepr:
Nice photo.... Do you know any Live Radar link for Cayman???


Thanks. No, I don't believe we have one. Apparently we are getting one before the start of next season....

Link
What is this big event in the ATL???
05:21:00Z 17.783N 84.383W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,565 meters
(~ 5,135 feet) 1009.0 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 147° at 42 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 48.3 mph) 16.7°C
(~ 62.1°F) 16.5°C
(~ 61.7°F) 43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 31.3 knots (~ 35.9 mph)
74.4%
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
First penetration underway for those following.


Where do you guys get these live recon feeds LOL?

Quoting sunlinepr:
Related to fight Dry Air and Shear...



Ah, Gotcha!
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Huh?


I think he was referring to how particularly strong hurricanes can basically create their own environment, so to speak. They don't usually defy the the synoptics, but they do on occasion become strong enough to influence them (busting the trough comes to mind).
She's a compact storm ATM.
Quoting sunlinepr:
The stronger she gets, the highest prob. to impose her rules & conditions



Agree, meaning a more Northward movement.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Post 1096, Plymouth State Weather Center loops, now I am thinking Paula can't be a hurricane right now.

At first in those loops, Paula's central clouds keep growing, growing, nice, nice, yeah, yeah! Then all of the sudden in the last couple of frames in that loop, its like splat! The convection breaking up at the center a bit. I am inclined to that Paula's coughing on some dry air right at this moment, and won't be a hurricane at 2 AM or 5 AM.



storms wax and wane, they do it when they are major hurricanes as well (eyewall replacement cycles). judging a depression, storm, or even cane is easier if you watch long runs of freeze frame images. it gives you a more comprehensive indication of long term trends, which is how storms grow.

She went through a huge explosion of growth from 2 pm till about an hour ago. a waning period was way overdue. she will wax back again sooner than later, stay tuned lol
So the closest are the Cuban radars?

Quoting Caymanfishnut:


Thanks. No, I don't believe we have one. Apparently we are getting one before the start of next season....

Link
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Where do you guys get these live recon feeds LOL?



Ah, Gotcha!


http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/live/
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Where do you guys get these live recon feeds LOL?



Ah, Gotcha!


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
Quoting sunlinepr:
What is this big event in the ATL???


Hmmm, that's a model output for Oct. 17. I don't want to say that's Paula being a nor'easter when I see other models bending Paula so far to the east rather than going up the east coast. I could answer that one if I had a link to a loop of that model that image came from.
The current forecast track for Paula looks eerily familiar. I can't help but wonder ....

Check the models here, I don't think its Paula, seems like a Low that comes from the NE Conus area???
Link
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Hmmm, that's a model output for Oct. 17. I don't want to say that's Paula being a nor'easter when I see other models bending Paula so far to the east rather than going up the east coast. I could answer that one if I had a link to a loop of that model that image came from.


Quoting sunlinepr:
The stronger she gets, the highest prob. to impose her rules & conditions

Well said, especially in this environment. At least until she's sucked into the Westerlies, she's in hog heaven.
Quoting sunlinepr:
The stronger she gets, the highest prob. to impose her rules & conditions




i completely agree. in this case the larger and stronger she gets, along with a growth in overall hurricane force coc will give her more strength to move northbound once she gets to the strait inbetween cuba and yucatan. the stronger she is the more she will push anything and everything that could affect her to the side, or if it does affect her the effect is reduced considerably.

what worries me most is the amount of dry air that has mixed out of the GOM over the past 24-36 hours. for those of you that were here remember how much light tan there was. it was a solid chunk of dust almost....lol

now there is some dry air remaining but it is collapsing faster and faster and being mixed out, as well as sliding north of the high pressure to the east of 98L and towards where Otto tracked. If you notice the shear is also doing the same. It looks like it is sliding north as well as to the east. it looks like it is in a fight with the winds in the wake of Otto (-50 vs +50). thats why i believe the white in the middle of the shear tendency appears to be leading out into the middle atlantic.
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



storms wax and wane, they do it when they are major hurricanes as well (eyewall replacement cycles). judging a depression, storm, or even cane is easier if you watch long runs of freeze frame images. it gives you a more comprehensive indication of long term trends, which is how storms grow.

She went through a huge explosion of growth from 2 pm till about an hour ago. a waning period was way overdue. she will wax back again sooner than later, stay tuned lol


Yeah, you're right about that. But during a waning moment, would a storm still be strengthening? I was thinking this is a short-lived wane for a handful of hours, and then anotehr burst of intensification will sail Paula well into hurricane strength.
Getting Close

05:31:00Z 17.400N 84.783W 841.9 mb
(~ 24.86 inHg) 1,520 meters
(~ 4,987 feet) - - From 134° at 56 knots
(From the SE at ~ 64.4 mph) 16.6°C*
(~ 61.9°F*) -* 58 knots
(~ 66.7 mph) 49 knots
(~ 56.3 mph)
12 mm/hr
(~ 0.47 in/hr)
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah, you're right about that. But during a waning moment, would a storm still be strengthening? I was thinking this is a short-lived wane for a handful of hours, and then anotehr burst of intensification will sail Paula well into hurricane strength.


Paula's convection hasn't decreased long enough to lessen the surface winds. So yes, she's still intensifying.
Our Airport has one (Owen Roberts International) but I can't seem to find a link to access it... Jamaica is only a few hunded miles South East of here and I'm sure you will find one there, same for Cuba I guess...
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Well said, especially in this environment. At least until she's sucked into the Westerlies, she's in hog heaven.



be careful counting on the westerlies, she has a long time to push moisture on different levels to the north as well as the influx of ul moisture out of the pacific tropical train of disturbances. it may be the case that the upper levels reload with tropical moisture (currently happening) and if that happens it is going to slow the westerlies down, or they are going to slide to the north (taking the path of least resistance)....heavier upper level with moisture may mean slower westerlies, or a disappearance of them altogether.
Quoting sunlinepr:
What is this big event in the ATL???


AFDBOX:

"THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. "

Thanks...
Quoting Caymanfishnut:
Our Airport has one (Owen Roberts International) but I can't seem to find a link to access it... Jamaica is only a few hunded miles South East of here and I'm sure you will find one there, same for Cuba I guess...
Time: 05:30:30Z
Coordinates: 17.4167N 84.7667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.4 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,521 meters (~ 4,990 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.4 mb (~ 29.60 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 138° at 56 knots (From the SE at ~ 64.4 mph)
Air Temp: 18.3°C (~ 64.9°F)
Dew Pt: 16.8°C (~ 62.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 58 knots (~ 66.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 47 knots (~ 54.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 6 mm/hr (~ 0.24 in/hr)

nice pressure drops and wind increase
Various models present a Monster storm East of Carolinas, NY, Boston....

Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


AFDBOX:

"THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. "

Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



be careful counting on the westerlies, she has a long time to push moisture on different levels to the north as well as the influx of ul moisture out of the pacific tropical train of disturbances. it may be the case that the upper levels reload with tropical moisture (currently happening) and if that happens it is going to slow the westerlies down, or they are going to slide to the north (taking the path of least resistance)....heavier upper level with moisture may mean slower westerlies, or a disappearance of them altogether.


A hurricane can modify the atmosphere like you are saying, the latent heat of condensation can increase upper-level ridging and thus weakening westerlies like you are saying. But there's no way Paula will wipe out the westerlies. Its about the scale of dynamics. The westerlies are far far more expansive than Paula. We may be talking about small changes in track, nothing that would mean Paula would go way north than expected.
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



be careful counting on the westerlies, she has a long time to push moisture on different levels to the north as well as the influx of ul moisture out of the pacific tropical train of disturbances. it may be the case that the upper levels reload with tropical moisture (currently happening) and if that happens it is going to slow the westerlies down, or they are going to slide to the north (taking the path of least resistance)....heavier upper level with moisture may mean slower westerlies, or a disappearance of them altogether.
That may help explain what I consider an odd climatological spike in mid October in tropical activity. It's almost a rebound of sorts. I've asked this question before, but never gotten a good answer .... Why don't we seen a smoother curved decline as we slide into November? Why the spike?

My guess is ... just what we're seeing now. Latent heat in the Western Caribbean.

05:32:00Z 17.367N 84.833W 842.2 mb
(~ 24.87 inHg) 1,496 meters
(~ 4,908 feet) 999.7 mb
(~ 29.52 inHg)
57.0 knots (~ 65.6 mph)
Tropical Storm


This is the only uncontaminated reading.
1144. 7544
992 mb ?
checking Cyclogenesis models, they also show that Big E low

Link

So was this

05:35:30Z 17.217N 84.950W 843.3 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,428 meters
(~ 4,685 feet) 992.1 mb
(~ 29.30 inHg)
Quoting sunlinepr:
Various models present a Monster storm East of Carolinas, NY, Boston....



Yep, this is not ex-Paula, that indeed is an extratropical (non-tropical) cyclone supported by a cold-core upper low/trough. A classic nor'easter.
Time: 05:35:30Z
Coordinates: 17.2167N 84.95W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.3 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,428 meters (~ 4,685 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 992.1 mb (~ 29.30 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 293° at 3 knots (From the WNW at ~ 3.4 mph)
Air Temp: 20.6°C (~ 69.1°F)
Dew Pt: 16.4°C (~ 61.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 10 knots (~ 11.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 23 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting sunlinepr:
Various models present a Monster storm East of Carolinas, NY, Boston....



Yeah, remains to be seen where the low bombs. Could mean some big rain and beach erosion somewhere up there. When I lived in MA I saw some nor'easters and blizzards do more damage to coastal areas than I care to remember.
Definitely not as deep as I was expecting.
1151. RyanFSU
00Z HWRF dissipates Paula after 4-5 days.

Ain't that normal for november instead of october??; is it too early in the season??

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yep, this is not ex-Paula, that indeed is an extratropical (non-tropical) cyclone supported by a cold-core upper low/trough. A classic nor'easter.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Definitely not as deep as I was expecting.


Pressure is approaching that of a hurricane, winds not there yet.
I was thinking something in the 985-988 range.
Well, it seems that its going to be the next Big atmospheric event... big swells for surfers.....
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Yeah, remains to be seen where the low bombs. Could mean some big rain and beach erosion somewhere up there. When I lived in MA I saw some nor'easters and blizzards do more damage to coastal areas than I care to remember.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I was thinking something in the 985-988 range.



Like I said, that dry air slug did a number on the cyclone, it penetrated the center. Most likely you will see eyewall forming open to the NW in the vortex.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 120554
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...PAULA VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 84.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
TODAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PAULA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND PAULA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER...EASTERN HONDURAS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...AND NORTHERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN HONDURAS...
WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT
1158. docrod
Quoting sunlinepr:
Thanks...


Owen Roberts
Link
000
WTNT33 KNHC 120554
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...PAULA VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 84.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
TODAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PAULA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND PAULA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER...EASTERN HONDURAS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...AND NORTHERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN HONDURAS...
WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
That may help explain what I consider an odd climatological spike in mid October in tropical activity. It's almost a rebound of sorts. I've asked this question before, but never gotten a good answer .... Why don't we seen a smoother curved decline as we slide into November? Why the spike?

My guess is ... just what we're seeing now. Latent heat in the Western Caribbean.



LOL, one thing's for sure, I don't think you should take a Caribbean vacation in October unless you got traveler's insurance or want to be the next Jim Cantore! Seems there is that tendency to have Caribbean October 'canes that are strong from time to time, Wilma 2004, Roxanne 1995, Gilbert 1988, Hattie 1961? Michelle 2001, to name a few.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
That may help explain what I consider an odd climatological spike in mid October in tropical activity. It's almost a rebound of sorts. I've asked this question before, but never gotten a good answer .... Why don't we seen a smoother curved decline as we slide into November? Why the spike?

My guess is ... just what we're seeing now. Latent heat in the Western Caribbean.




i believe you may be right. the long range bell curve shows a spike because during this time of year things are in flux over the tropics. it is the time when troughs can finally start dipping down this far south as the summer ends, but it can fluctuate back again within 2-3 days to a semi-conducive environment because we are transitioning seasons. also it is the end of the summer and mother nature necessarily wants to transfer heat in the northern hemisphere to the polar cap. she needs to cool down each year by venting like this or the seas would boil at the equator


in addition the lack of storms (which are like the pressure cooker whistle on your pressure cooker you use to cook) last year set this year up with hotter overall sst's, and since the season was late in kick starting alot of heat had built up. sst's are still quite sufficient for rapid development, particularly where she is right now.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Ain't that normal for november instead of october??; is it too early in the season??



Boston forecasters think so!

"AS MENTIONED ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON THE
IDEA OF AN EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM MOVING FROM THE MID ATLC COAST
TO SOMEWHERE FROM NANTUCKET TO THE BENCHMARK. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND
UKMET SUGGEST AN INTENSE COASTAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRES DOWN INTO
THE 980S! IF VERIFIES NOT BAD FOR MID OCT."
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 05:52Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2010
Storm Name: Paula (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 12th day of the month at 5:35:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°13'N 84°56'W (17.2167N 84.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 216 miles (347 km) to the E (95°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,362m (4,469ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (38°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 132° at 58kts (From the SE at ~ 66.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (37°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 5:32:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the southwest quadrant at 5:37:10Z
Radar Presentation: Good
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYEWALL IN EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT
The OOZ GFS and HWRF tells me if Paula doesn't get pulled up by the trough the show is over. She will get left behind with no steering currents and high shear.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 05:52Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2010
Storm Name: Paula (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 12th day of the month at 5:35:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°13'N 84°56'W (17.2167N 84.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 216 miles (347 km) to the E (95°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,362m (4,469ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (38°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 132° at 58kts (From the SE at ~ 66.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (37°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 5:32:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the southwest quadrant at 5:37:10Z
Radar Presentation: Good
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYEWALL IN EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT
Take a look at this Impressive animation
Link
Link

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Like I said, that dry air slug did a number on the cyclone, it penetrated the center. Most likely you will see eyewall forming open to the NW in the vortex.


Yeah, changed my mind and started to agree with your dry air theory in post 1104, Paula coughed, but she'll be a hurricane once she catches her breath again, LOL.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Well, it seems that its going to be the next Big atmospheric event... big swells for surfers.....


Surfers - lol None up there, water's too cold!
990's....she is dropping pressure even though she is waning. when she completes this cycle based on the following factors---

a) lack of wind shear

b) disappearing dry air to the north of her

c) sufficient sst's

d) temperature variation due to nighttime (more temp. difference between the sst's and the air)


....i expect a large flare up of deep convection not only in the coc but around her coc as well stronger banding expanding out....i think this next waxing cycle will show signs of symmetry, deep banding, expansive breathing and venting,...basically a more commonly accepted image of a healthy hurricane. we may also see the 1st emergence of an eyewall when the waning is done and the waxing cycle begins again....
Quoting sunlinepr:
Take a look at this Impressive animation
Link
Link



Yeah, including how Paula fizzles.
1172. xcool


lookie here

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 05:58Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Yeah, including how Paula fizzles.



models have been confused for days....24-36 hours out i am disregarding them....the models 6 hrs ago were showing a t.s. all the way to the yucatan. she will probably gain cat 1 strength way before that. the models haven't handled this storm well for days and i have stopped looking that far forward....
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



i believe you may be right. the long range bell curve shows a spike because during this time of year things are in flux over the tropics. it is the time when troughs can finally start dipping down this far south as the summer ends, but it can fluctuate back again within 2-3 days to a semi-conducive environment because we are transitioning seasons. also it is the end of the summer and mother nature necessarily wants to transfer heat in the northern hemisphere to the polar cap. she needs to cool down each year by venting like this or the seas would boil at the equator


in addition the lack of storms (which are like the pressure cooker whistle on your pressure cooker you use to cook) last year set this year up with hotter overall sst's, and since the season was late in kick starting alot of heat had built up. sst's are still quite sufficient for rapid development, particularly where she is right now.


I wonder, do other basins besides the Atlantic exhibit this secondary October peak? If its just an Atlantic phenomenon, the above theory in my mind wouldn't hold. The whole thing about the heat transfer from equators to poles, wouldn't that hold in every basin's Octobers and not just in the Atlantic?
1176. RyanFSU
Dr. Masters has often discussed the anomalously high SST's this year in the North Atlantic. However, the Gulf of Mexico has chilled remarkably fast this year, even compared to 2009.

Here are the SSTs for 2009 and 2010...huge differences on the order of 3-5 C, with coastal waters much cooler. Not sure there will be much recovery as a series of powerful cold-fronts are poised to blow into the Gulf coast states -- and likely discourage further development of Paula.



Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I wonder, do other basins besides the Atlantic exhibit this secondary October peak? If its just an Atlantic phenomenon, the above theory in my mind wouldn't hold. The whole thing about the heat transfer from equators to poles, wouldn't that hold in every basin's Octobers and not just in the Atlantic?



i think it happens in india as well, or at least the basic principle of going polar with energy and heat. but the way that the land masses are organized the storms in that part of the world usually really die down because when the polar pull begins the bodies of water are limited in size, so storms don't have enough time to get a head of steam before they make landfall and spin northwards. what i mean is that the new tracks send the storms over very short expanses of water, so they don't have enough time to build like they do in the Caribbean.
Quoting xcool:




"MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SW AND SCNTRL LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 120548Z - 120715Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SE TX AND
SW-SCNTRL LA LATE TONIGHT. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MOVES ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT ONGOING ACROSS SW LA IS LOCATED ON THE NRN
EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN
THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED IN SCNTRL LA.
THIS SECONDARY CLUSTER HAS OVERTURNED THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN LA AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY AS THE
BOWING LINE-SEGMENT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS SW LA LATE TONIGHT.
STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WHICH ALONG WITH 35 TO 40 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE LAKE CHARLES WSR-88D VWP SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BUT THE THREAT SHOULD LESSEN WITH TIME
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 10/12/2010
"
Surelly, will be for surfers in the Caribbean.... Seems like 3 Palmas in Rincon PR, is going to show some 25 footers....

Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Surfers - lol None up there, water's too cold!
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
lookie here

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 05:58Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)


With this development, she's fighting off the dry air as expected and should have a mature eyewall just in time for DMAX.
Quoting RyanFSU:
Dr. Masters has often discussed the anomalously high SST's this year in the North Atlantic. However, the Gulf of Mexico has chilled remarkably fast this year, even compared to 2009.

Here are the SSTs for 2009 and 2010...huge differences on the order of 3-5 C, with coastal waters much cooler. Not sure there will be much recovery as a series of powerful cold-fronts are poised to blow into the Gulf coast states -- and likely discourage further development of Paula.






colors can be deceiving. look at the gradient scale below. the sst's have dropped a degree, maybe 2? not much drop off.....red always has a shocking effect that gets peoples attention...lol thats why they make stop signs and lights that color lol and thats why red cars that speed statistically get more speeding tickets lmao


coastal waters will always cool down faster when large troughs dig in like we just had. it only goes to show how deep the heat is built up further out in the gulf. coastal waters are far more shallow, therefore they can't retain as much overall radiated heat from the sun. and why are you using 2009 to 2010 maps to show how the sst's are now cooling down? what you need are july/august 2010 charts along with sept/oct 2010 charts. the charts are misleading if they are from 2 separate years.
1182. RyanFSU
I am not particularly deceived...



Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



colors can be deceiving. look at the gradient scale below. the sst's have dropped a degree, maybe 2? not much drop off.....red always has a shocking effect that gets peoples attention...lol thats why they make stop signs and lights that color lol and thats why red cars that speed statistically get more speeding tickets lmao
Quoting RyanFSU:
Dr. Masters has often discussed the anomalously high SST's this year in the North Atlantic. However, the Gulf of Mexico has chilled remarkably fast this year, even compared to 2009.

Here are the SSTs for 2009 and 2010...huge differences on the order of 3-5 C, with coastal waters much cooler. Not sure there will be much recovery as a series of powerful cold-fronts are poised to blow into the Gulf coast states -- and likely discourage further development of Paula.





October 10, 2009



October 10, 2010

anyway I am off to bed have to wake up and go to work at the Met office at 8:30am I think paula may start to move and end up being located near 17.9N/18.0N 84.5W/85.4W BBL at around 5am
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
lookie here

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 05:58Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)


That is also a smaller than average eye to start out with, typical is 20-40 miles.
Quoting KoritheMan:


October 10, 2009



October 10, 2010



oh i get it you are showing the difference from this date year to year. ok that makes sense :) sorry about the confusion fsu.

you are correct it does appear the trough last week did knock the overall sst's down a good degree or 2 across most of the gulf.
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)

She's going to explode.
Quoting RyanFSU:
Dr. Masters has often discussed the anomalously high SST's this year in the North Atlantic. However, the Gulf of Mexico has chilled remarkably fast this year, even compared to 2009.

Here are the SSTs for 2009 and 2010...huge differences on the order of 3-5 C, with coastal waters much cooler. Not sure there will be much recovery as a series of powerful cold-fronts are poised to blow into the Gulf coast states -- and likely discourage further development of Paula.



That's quite a cooldown. I wonder why. Here in New Orleans it has been seasonably milder and dry for the past 2+ weeks, but nothing extreme.

What's your take on the record quiet Pacific? ENSO or something else?
1189. RyanFSU
ECMWF 00Z gives up on Paula pretty quickly. The 96 hour forecast:

Quoting victoriahurricane:
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)

She's going to explode.



if this is true this is confirming my suspicions. when she stops waning and begins her waxing cycle she is going to band up with huge intake and huge exhale, along with a growth in the overall coc. we may see the eyewall and a coc which is more apparent expanding outward with hurricane force winds.


Link

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html


check out the expanse of overall venting she is demonstrating into the GOM in that link. also notice the upper level moisture penetrating deep into the remaining core of the driest air (where the wind shear gave way 12-16 hours ago) in the south central GOM. i suspect we may get a correction of models tomorrow due to a buildup of upper level moisture, which is going to thicken the air, forcing the westerlies either north into the states (path of least resistance) or slowing them down considerably as moisture stacks up in the GOM. the chamber is being reloaded with upper level tropical moisture from 160w-100w/10n-20n. and paula is kicking in tons of moisture now that the shear is pulling north and rolling east towards the remnants of Otto. She can push huge amounts of moisture into the GOM before she even arrives because the shear is not dragging her moisture into the open atlantic (like it was at noon yesterday).
TropicalStormPaula's heading remained steady at (9.2degrees north of) NorthWest.
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions held at ~11.3mph(~18.2km/h)
TropicalDepression18
11Oct 12pmGMT - - 15.2n83.2w - - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - - 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF
TS.Paula
11Oct 06pmGMT - - 15.7n83.7w - - 45knots(~83.3km/h) - - 1001mb -- NHC-ATCF
11Oct 09pmGMT - - 16.0n84.0w - - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - . - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#1
12Oct 12amGMT - - 16.4n84.3w - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - - 998mb -- NHC.Adv.#1A
12Oct 03amGMT - - 16.8n84.6w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#2
12Oct 06amGMT - - 17.2n84.9w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - - 991mb -- NHC.Adv.#2A

Copy &paste 15.2n83.2w, 15.7n83.7w-16.0n84.0w, 16.0n84.0w-16.4n84.3w, 16.4n84.3w-16.8n84.6w, 16.8n84.6w-17.2n84.9w, pnd, cun, mzo, 17.2n84.9w-20.36n87.33w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~23hours from now to Chacalal,QuintanaRoo,Mexico

^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
1192. RyanFSU
The Pacific is in the throes of a strongly negative PDO and now nearing record-strength La Nina (for this time of year, MEI).

A multidecadal cycle in the Pacific of 16-32 years matches up pretty well to the current dead period. The year of 1977 was the year of nothing with the Pacific dead. However, as this year, and 2007, the Indian Ocean was particularly active.

Globally, as I have publicized elsewhere, tropical cyclone activity is at a 33-year low, and at a record low in the Western pacific. Link

It has to pick up -- because it can't get any less active in my estimation.

Quoting KerryInNOLA:
That's quite a cooldown. I wonder why. Here in New Orleans it has been seasonably milder and dry for the past 2+ weeks, but nothing extreme.

What's your take on the record quiet Pacific? ENSO or something else?
Quoting aspectre:
TropicalStormPaula's heading remained steady at (9.2degrees north of) NorthWast
turned []ward to (degrees [] of) NorthNorthWast
from its previous heading of (9.2degrees north of) NorthWest
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions remained at ~11.3mph(~18.2km/h)
TropicalDepression18
11Oct 12pmGMT - - 15.2n83.2w - - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - - 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF
TS.Paula
11Oct 06pmGMT - - 15.7n83.7w - - 45knots(~83.3km/h) - - 1001mb -- NHC-ATCF
11Oct 09pmGMT - - 16.0n84.0w - - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - . - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#1
12Oct 12amGMT - - 16.4n84.3w - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - - 998mb -- NHC.Adv.#1A
12Oct 03amGMT - - 16.8n84.6w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#2
12Oct 06amGMT - - 17.2n84.9w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - - 991mb -- NHC.Adv.#2A

Copy &paste 15.2n83.2w, 15.7n83.7w-16.0n84.0w, 16.0n84.0w-16.4n84.3w, 16.4n84.3w-16.8n84.6w, 16.8n84.6w-17.2n84.9w, pnd, cun, mbj, 17.2n84.9w-20.36n87.33w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~23hours from now to Cacalal,QuintanaRoo,Mexico

^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.


this may also be a sign of strengthening. stronger northern pull in the mid levels will direct her more northward as her mb pressure drops. i suspect she may start moving just a few more degrees north of her current north northwest track. if she strengthens the steering currents may direct her in a straighter line towards the strait between cuba and yucatan.


that sounded redundant....lol
Quoting RyanFSU:
The Pacific is in the throes of a strongly negative PDO and now nearing record-strength La Nina (for this time of year, MEI).

A multidecadal cycle in the Pacific of 16-32 years matches up pretty well to the current dead period. The year of 1977 was the year of nothing with the Pacific dead. However, as this year, and 2007, the Indian Ocean was particularly active.

Globally, as I have publicized elsewhere, tropical cyclone activity is at a 33-year low, and at a record low in the Western pacific. Link

It has to pick up -- because it can't get any less active in my estimation.

So you think a negative PDO is more of a driver of low Pacific activity than a La Nina?

Somebody recently stated that we seem to be (stuck) in a 3 year cycle, El Nno, La Nina and then neutral. So next year should be neutral and active. I would like to find a site that has data as far back as we could identify ENSO and compare activity in the basins.

One other question? Has there ever been a year of high activity Globally and if so what were the drivers?
1195. alfabob
Quoting alfabob:



here is a more accurate loop from nhc that shows all levels of the atmosphere, thus giving a true representation of the water vapor.

Link

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html
Quoting RyanFSU:
ECMWF 00Z gives up on Paula pretty quickly. The 96 hour forecast:

Man, you are pouring cold water all over me tonight.
I am more concerned on the potential NorEaster developing and Affecting the ConUs than Paula will. I just don't "CURRENTLY" see much impact of Paula for the ConUs.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Man, you are pouring cold water all over me tonight.


i tend to put no credence in any models for this storm past 48 hours. the models have been a mess for days.
haha its funny how when the storm cycles people give up, and as soon as it starts to grow again in the growth stages people swamp in...lol funny
I just released a Tropical Update with all updated and current graphics and Models if anyone needs. Nite off to bed and preparing for a big game tomorrow nite. GO RAYS!
At least the so called "night shift" found a new place to waste their time! JMO
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
haha its funny how when the storm cycles people give up, and as soon as it starts to grow again in the growth stages people swamp in...lol funny
If you'll note carefully, the activity south of Cuba has waned tonight also. Diurnal>?

I never can get this straight. One day it's explained as diurnal, and the next day as something else. This time, I suspect something diurnal, but I'm sure I'm going to be told I'm wrong.

Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
haha its funny how when the storm cycles people give up, and as soon as it starts to grow again in the growth stages people swamp in...lol funny


Funny how the true WishCaster and the true DownCaster peep out of people. NIte all!
Quoting swflurker:
At least the so called "night shift" found a new place to waste their time! JMO



lol
If your still here Ryan, are sunspot cycles an area that you consider also?
Quoting RyanFSU:
The Pacific is in the throes of a strongly negative PDO and now nearing record-strength La Nina (for this time of year, MEI).

A multidecadal cycle in the Pacific of 16-32 years matches up pretty well to the current dead period. The year of 1977 was the year of nothing with the Pacific dead. However, as this year, and 2007, the Indian Ocean was particularly active.

Globally, as I have publicized elsewhere, tropical cyclone activity is at a 33-year low, and at a record low in the Western pacific. Link

It has to pick up -- because it can't get any less active in my estimation.

000
FONT13 KNHC 120244
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
0300 UTC TUE OCT 12 2010

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 1 2 10 14 25
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 4 5 16 21 26
TROPICAL STORM 28 15 20 40 52 48 40
HURRICANE 72 84 76 52 23 18 9
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 66 58 42 36 17 14 7
HUR CAT 2 5 19 23 11 4 2 1
HUR CAT 3 1 6 9 4 2 1 X
HUR CAT 4 1 1 2 1 X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 80KT 85KT 75KT 60KT 55KT 45KT

Looking at the hurricane hunters latest fix, [Paula is moving NNW.]

She's making a break for the channel.
1209. docrod
Forecast track looks spot on but Paula may pass the 12/1200Z forecast point ahead of schedule

Link
1210. shfr173
OK can't sleep whats going on?
1211. docrod
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Looking at the hurricane hunters latest fix, [Paula is moving NNW.]

She's making a break for the channel.


Looks like 20 miles between fixes at 5:30Z and 7:17Z
Link Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 07:39Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2010
Storm Name: Paula (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 12th day of the month at 7:17:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°28'N 85°04'W (17.4667N 85.0667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 206 miles (331 km) to the E (91°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,337m (4,386ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SE (125°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 220° at 65kts (From the SW at ~ 74.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 992mb (29.29 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 7:14:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 64kts (~ 73.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 7:19:10Z
Radar Presentation: Good
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EARLY STAGES OF EYEWALL DEVELOPMENT
I think Paula will be a Cane at 5 A.M. Latest vortex suggests she is at the CAT 1 threshold...
1214. Beta
Will Paula be the last storm of the 2010 season or will there be more named storms?
...PAULA BECOMES NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
Quoting KoritheMan:
...PAULA BECOMES NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE IN HEADER

...PAULA BECOMES NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

Step aside, Humberto, we have a new record-holder!
000
WTNT43 KNHC 120850
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF
65 KT AND A MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND OF 62 KT. IT IS
PROBABLE THAT THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT SAMPLE THE VERY HIGHEST WINDS IN
THE CYCLONE. MOREOVER...A DROPSONDE IN THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL SHOWED THAT THE WINDS FROM AROUND 900 MB DOWN
TO THE SURFACE WERE 65-70 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...PAULA IS
UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING
THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...THE OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS SHOW
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPACTING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CIRCULATION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE LATEST GFS AND U.K. MET GLOBAL MODEL RUNS IMPLY MORE
WEAKENING IN 3 TO 5 DAYS THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION IS BEGINNING
TO LEAN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW AROUND 325/9. LITTLE
CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST. PAULA IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL ACCELERATING PAULA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE ATLANTIC IN SEVERAL DAYS AND THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE TURNING
THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE MODEL SPREAD IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE
PREDICTED INTENSITY. A STRONGER SYSTEM SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL
WOULD LIKELY BE STEERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND A WEAK/SHALLOW CYCLONE SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD
LIKELY BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY LOW-LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. SINCE WE EXPECT PAULA TO WEAKEN IN THE LATTER HALF OF
FORECAST PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AS NOTED
IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 17.6N 85.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 18.7N 86.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 20.1N 86.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 21.0N 86.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 21.5N 86.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 21.5N 85.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 21.5N 84.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 21.0N 83.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
Paula is amazing. She went from Invest 98L last night on the TWO @ 2AM EDT, 50% chance of development to a CAT 1 Hurricane in 27 hours!

Where are those who said she's never make TD status now, huh?
As stated yesterday, while the deep, persistent trough of the past two weeks cooled off the waters of the GOM compared to last month and even last year, there's a world of difference between "cooler than it was" and "cold"; with the exception of a few tiny spots, SSTs in the Gulf are still warm enough to generate and sustain a TC. But that's almost a moot point: the GOM--especially the northern reaches--isn't climatologically the focal point of development at this time of year...and the remainder of the MDR waters are still warm...warmer, in fact, than they were last year (as the images in #1176 show).

The big cooldown in the Gulf halted after that cool, dry airmass vacated, and SSTs have actually warmed in a few areas now that warmer water has come back to the surface. And until the next cold front comes through--which, again, is normal for this time of year--they're not going to have much chance to cool down considerably, as record to near-record heat continues to hold sway.

In the CONUS yesterday, there were 181 high temperature or maximum low temperature records set; by comparison, there was one low temp record set. Over the past two days, while there have been 465 record highs, there have been just ten record lows. (Numbers from HAMweather.) Even with evaporational cooling, it's difficult for water to give up much heat to an atmosphere so warm.


1221. shikori
Link
Link


Vort looks less elongated now more condensed, convergence has settled more oer the center now
Quoting Beta:
Will Paula be the last storm of the 2010 season or will there be more named storms?


No one knows, of course, but it's highly unlikely Paula is the last one. 1969--as good an analog year as any--saw five named storms after this date, four of which were hurricanes. And the anomalous 2005 had, of course, seven more named storms after this date. On the other hand, however, 2002--which, like 2010, saw a record eight September storms--had no more named storms after the end of September (and just one further tropical depression).
Good morning, still in amazement over Hurricane Paula! I have update my blog as of 4:40 AM CDT:
Link
1224. IKE
Mobile,AL. extended...fall returns to the northern GOM....


LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...MOVING INTO ANOTHER EXTENDED
PERIOD OF RAINFREE WEATHER COMING UP. AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS...OVER THE GULF COAST WED...PIVOTS EASTWARD ON THU. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SECONDARY...REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO SURGE SOUTHWARD
OUT INTO THE GULF BY THU AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A DEEP
LAYER...DRIER AIRMASS TO BUILD BACK IN. PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLOSE TO
AN INCH EARLY WED WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY TO BELOW A HALF INCH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE
DRY...WESTERN SIDE OF AN EAST COAST TROF TO START THE WEEKEND. THERE
WILL BE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD ON
SAT AS EAST COAST UPPER TROF/STORM SYSTEM LIFTS OUT ALLOWING A MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW BEGINS
TO FLATTEN BY MON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PICTURE. AS FORECASTERS CONSIDER THE DRY AIRMASS...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...AN EXCELLENT RADIATIVE COOLING CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FRI THROUGH MON
MORNINGS. EXPECT TO SEE LOWER/MID 40S DURING THIS TIME FRAME OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH MID 50S AT THE BEACHES. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL ON WED WILL TREND LOWER AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...THU THRU MON.

hello everyone. took a break for awhile. she looks impressive to say the least. she has really sucked into the middle and formed bands although some convection has been lost in the process. do you all expect her to expand with deep convection now that she has pulled an eyewall together?
thanks for the mobile update :)

here is the new wv loop. she looks like in the last frame that deep convection is beginning again around Paula's coc. she may be coming to the end of her first EWRC, or would you call it the formation of an eyewall.

Link

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

Link

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/sst/latest_sst.gif
1227. shikori


lets see if it builds on the blue dot
what's killing Paula in three days? the forecast has her weakening
1229. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE PAULA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
CLOSE TO YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY WED MORNING AND CROSS BRIEFLY
INTO THE GULF NEAR 21.5N 86.0W THU MORNING BEFORE TURNING E AND
WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.5N 85.0W EARLY FRI
MORNING. PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFT E JUST TO THE
SW OF CUBA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRES OVER NE GULF WILL
DISSIPATE TODAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST
EARLY WED MORNING. THIS FRONT DISSIPATES LATE WED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE GULF THU.
1230. IKE
Quoting all4hurricanes:
what's killing Paula in three days? the forecast has her weakening


From the latest discussion....

"THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS SHOW
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPACTING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CIRCULATION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE LATEST GFS AND U.K. MET GLOBAL MODEL RUNS IMPLY MORE
WEAKENING IN 3 TO 5 DAYS THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST."
Quoting Beta:
Will Paula be the last storm of the 2010 season or will there be more named storms?


There will be a good 2 or 3 more.

Paula beat Hurricane Humberto's record with 12 hours.

Although Paula will likely be rounded to ~18 hours, it marks the 4th season in a row we've seen this happen. Humberto, Gustav, Ida, and Paula.
I doubt Paula started out as a 60mph TS I'm sure post season analysis will reveal .5-1 day of missed advisories, still considering moderate shear dry air and negative MJO I'm surprised she intensified so quickly
1233. IKE
Buoy about 150 miles due north of Ms. Paula....

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 3.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.3 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 68 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.82 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.8 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.2 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 77.7 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 92.1 °F
meteorologists were created to make economists look good. David Phillips, quote from recent interview.
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/7-questions-for-david-phillips-104658709.html

anyway, interesting while we wait and wonder. thoughts?

she looks formidable given the variables in her way. paula dances nonetheless.
one more storm nov averages 1/2 a yr its a active yr so i pick 1 more after p
1236. tkeith
Haven't seen this in a while...

last 12 hrs of wind shear appears to show stronger shear above Paula is retreating north.

40 falls back off of cuba clear back to the keys. i wonder if this trend will continue.

Link

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=Z&t ime=
Shields are still up Ike!
1240. Ryuujin
Hmm. That little circle that Paula was supposed to take has certainly extended north and eastward hasn't it.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:



can you post that link please?
Quoting Ryuujin:
Hmm. That little circle that Paula was supposed to take has certainly extended north and eastward hasn't it.


NHC/TPC giving themselves lots of wiggle room!
1244. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Shields are still up Ike!


We're safe from tropical systems.


Dew points in the 40's helps too....DeFuniak Spgs.,FL.forecast....


Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 46.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 80.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 48.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 82.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 81.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.
1245. Ryuujin
Quoting IKE:
We're safe from tropical systems.


Unless you live on the NW coast of Alaska, that is a stupid and reckless thing to ever say
Thats an awfully dry forecast. Real pleasant temps tho. I started running the AC again the last couple of days, I'll be glad to turn it off again. My power bills this summer were obscene!
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



can you post that link please?


Link
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Link


ty :)
1249. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Thats an awfully dry forecast. Real pleasant temps tho. I started running the AC again the last couple of days, I'll be glad to turn it off again. My power bills this summer were obscene!


My A/C is on too.
Quoting Ryuujin:


Unless you live on the NW coast of Alaska, that is a stupid and reckless thing to ever say



truly classless and clueless.
when do you all expect this to show the eyewall and start blowing up convection again? if ever?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Models still taking it into South florida...

hey guys wow nice paula is now a hurricane hmmm looks to be moving north now last 17.6N 85.2W now 17.9N/18.0N 85.2W/85.1W
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
well ike i see they are still at it lol.Guess they are jealous you have reported the obvious and been right on.Hats off to you buddy you the best forecast year out of all the weather amateurs.And hey you admit your a amateur can't say that for the majority.Thier is a couple on here tht are still carrying storm w and levis pattern change to the bitter end lol.Well i think they are going to end up like Custer At the little big horn.One in paticular will still be quoting the ss temps are above average in jan .Al gore cult follower?have a great day.


Ummmm....huh?
1256. QMiami
slight changes can cause a different outcome. still need to watch it closely


1257. hydrus

looks like it lossed alittle convection
Quoting CybrTeddy:


There will be a good 2 or 3 more.

Paula beat Hurricane Humberto's record with 12 hours.

Although Paula will likely be rounded to ~18 hours, it marks the 4th season in a row we've seen this happen. Humberto, Gustav, Ida, and Paula.


Makes you think of all those weird drawn out tropical storms in years past that may well have been hurricanes at some point, though for a brief period of time.
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
well ike i see they are still at it lol.Guess they are jealous you have reported the obvious and been right on.Hats off to you buddy you the best forecast year out of all the weather amateurs.And hey you admit your a amateur can't say that for the majority.Thier is a couple on here tht are still carrying storm w and levis pattern change to the bitter end lol.Well i think they are going to end up like Custer At the little big horn.One in paticular will still be quoting the ss temps are above average in jan .Al gore cult follower?have a great day.
send money not compliments
Heeerrreee'ssss JB!

TUESDAY 7 AM
PAULA COMES TO CROSSROADS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

Paula has a window of about 24 hours to feedback and tighten up into a balled fist of fury that could take it as high as a cat 3, but after that the storm will encounter enough shear to weaken it. The long shot that GFDL shows cant be written off, the rapid acceleration late tonight and tomorrow northeast and the threat to the Fla keys. That track would keep it in a position in relation to the jet so it would interact in a way that would allow it to keep its intensity. Its interesting, for the approach of the trough is like a blanket to a fire. At first, the upper jet considerations can lead to enhanced large scale upward motion which is why the storm can suddenly deepen. If it then proceeds to take off and keep its distance in a way where it can stay in the upward motion pattern, then it will continue strong or even develop more. Classic examples of Wilma, after weakening to a cat 2, taking off to the northeast but keeping here intensity at that level when she struck south Florida. A lesser known example, Gerda in 1969, accelerated nne in advance of a trough and went from a cat one to a cat 3 as it passed 100 miles southeast of Nantucket.

Speaking of Nantucket, the weekend storm is more progressive and further east so while snow showers can develop over the northern high ground its in and out enough so we dont have to worry about Tom Brady's hair getting mussed up by snow a second year in a row in October.

The model means still focus on the storm threat in the gulf next week and remember, the idea here from 10 days ago was Otto and out, Paula in the western Caribbean this week and then the gulf next week. Whether that is whats left of Paula, or another system, we will have to watch for a potential more westward development next week and the threat of it phasing a la nicole for some grand pre halloween event over the east..complete with snow flurries an squalls behind it and the threat of tropical entrainment in front of it. That it would come before halloween may seem weird, but what is stranger to me is the rampaging tstorms last night in the northeast with the front..something that may not be seen this late in the year again in your lifetime, since I had never seen it before in mine. One cannon shot after another, even one in the wee hours back here. Wow!

Notes and asides. Imagine if you were getting married 56 years ago today in Rhode Island and you were a weather fanatic. A big heat wave raging, a monster hurricane lurking in the Caribbean. How could you keep your focus. Well its my mom and dads anniversary today and it was the hottest Columbus Day ever recorded, until the 1990 Columbus day heat wave. In any case, I would have been going out of my mind wondering what was going on. My wife and I got married during the non season of 1992, so that was not a problem.

Even with their wedding day, I couldnt measure up to my mom and dad!

ciao for now ****
More than 2&1/2 hours late but...
HurricanePaula's heading remained*steady at (9.2degrees north of) NorthWest
H.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions held at ~11.3mph(~18.2km/h)
TropicalDepression18
11Oct 12pmGMT - - 15.2n83.2w - - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - - 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF
TS.Paula
11Oct 06pmGMT - - 15.7n83.7w - - 45knots(~83.3km/h) - - 1001mb -- NHC-ATCF
11Oct 09pmGMT - - 16.0n84.0w - - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - . - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#1
12Oct 12amGMT - - 16.4n84.3w - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - - 998mb -- NHC.Adv.#1A
12Oct 03amGMT - - 16.8n84.6w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#2
12Oct 06amGMT - - 17.2n84.9w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - - 991mb -- NHC.Adv.#2A
H.Paula
12Oct 09amGMT - - 17.6n85.2w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#3

Copy &paste 15.2n83.2w, 15.7n83.7w, 16.0n84.0w-16.4n84.3w, 16.4n84.3w-16.8n84.6w, 16.8n84.6w-17.2n84.9w, 17.2n84.9w-17.6n85.2w, pnd, cun, mzo, 17.6n85.2w-20.38n87.33w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~18hours from now to Akumal,QuintanaRoo,Mexico

* The 0.1degree difference is well within rounding error.
^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
1266. Grothar
1267. Grothar
1269. IKE
5:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 12
Location: 17.6°N 85.2°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
...........................

...PAULA HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
7:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 12
Location: 18.1°N 85.4°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
1270. IKE
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
.........................................


This buoy is about 100 miles NNE of Paula....

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 3.6 ft

5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.4 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 92 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.81 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.9 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 77.5 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 92.3 °F
Shear relatively light...for the moment (9:00Z)

Click to Enlarge

Quoting weatherguy03:
Hurricane Paula Update Oct. 12th. 2010
Always look fwd to your updates, weatherguy!
1273. Dakster
Where's Patrap???

I haven't seen a post from him in awhile. Hope he is ok.
Hurricane winds only extend outward up to 10 miles from the center...a relatively small hurricane

000
WTNT43 KNHC 120850
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS SHOW
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPACTING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CIRCULATION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD

Her glory days may be numbered...
1277. Dakster
And Andrew was small too and we see what he did!

(NOT COMPARING Paula to Andrew, just making a comment that small can do a lot of damage too)
Quoting Dakster:
And Andrew was small too and we see what he did!

(NOT COMPARING Paula to Andrew, just making a comment that small can do a lot of damage too)

Andrew also made an absolute, direct, perpendicular landfall in a highly populated area...

We'll see what this one does....I'm hoping not, and thinking she's so small & meek that shear & dry air will destroy her after she makes her easterly loop just south of Cuba.
HurricanePaula's heading turned northward to (1.6degrees north of) NorthNorthWest
from its previous heading of (9.2degrees north of) NorthWest
H.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~12.3mph(~19.8km/h) from its previous moving speed of ~11.3mph(~18.2km/h)
TropicalDepression18
11Oct 12pmGMT - - 15.2n83.2w - - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - - 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF
TS.Paula
11Oct 06pmGMT - - 15.7n83.7w - - 45knots(~83.3km/h) - - 1001mb -- NHC-ATCF
11Oct 09pmGMT - - 16.0n84.0w - - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - . - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#1
12Oct 12amGMT - - 16.4n84.3w - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - - 998mb -- NHC.Adv.#1A
12Oct 03amGMT - - 16.8n84.6w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#2
12Oct 06amGMT - - 17.2n84.9w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - - 991mb -- NHC.Adv.#2A
H.Paula
12Oct 09amGMT - - 17.6n85.2w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#3
12Oct 12pmGMT - - 18.1n85.4w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#3

Copy &paste 15.2n83.2w, 15.7n83.7w, 16.0n84.0w, 16.4n84.3w-16.8n84.6w, 16.8n84.6w-17.2n84.9w, 17.2n84.9w-17.6n85.2w, 17.6n85.2w-18.1n85.4w, pnd, cun, mzo, 18.1n85.4w-21.17n86.65w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~18hours from now to passage into the Gulf of Mexico

^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Quoting Dakster:
And Andrew was small too and we see what he did!

(NOT COMPARING Paula to Andrew, just making a comment that small can do a lot of damage too)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Heeerrreee'ssss JB!

TUESDAY 7 AM
PAULA COMES TO CROSSROADS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

Paula has a window of about 24 hours to feedback and tighten up into a balled fist of fury that could take it as high as a cat 3, but after that the storm will encounter enough shear to weaken it. The long shot that GFDL shows cant be written off, the rapid acceleration late tonight and tomorrow northeast and the threat to the Fla keys. That track would keep it in a position in relation to the jet so it would interact in a way that would allow it to keep its intensity. Its interesting, for the approach of the trough is like a blanket to a fire. At first, the upper jet considerations can lead to enhanced large scale upward motion which is why the storm can suddenly deepen. If it then proceeds to take off and keep its distance in a way where it can stay in the upward motion pattern, then it will continue strong or even develop more. Classic examples of Wilma, after weakening to a cat 2, taking off to the northeast but keeping here intensity at that level when she struck south Florida. A lesser known example, Gerda in 1969, accelerated nne in advance of a trough and went from a cat one to a cat 3 as it passed 100 miles southeast of Nantucket.

Speaking of Nantucket, the weekend storm is more progressive and further east so while snow showers can develop over the northern high ground its in and out enough so we dont have to worry about Tom Brady's hair getting mussed up by snow a second year in a row in October.

The model means still focus on the storm threat in the gulf next week and remember, the idea here from 10 days ago was Otto and out, Paula in the western Caribbean this week and then the gulf next week. Whether that is whats left of Paula, or another system, we will have to watch for a potential more westward development next week and the threat of it phasing a la nicole for some grand pre halloween event over the east..complete with snow flurries an squalls behind it and the threat of tropical entrainment in front of it. That it would come before halloween may seem weird, but what is stranger to me is the rampaging tstorms last night in the northeast with the front..something that may not be seen this late in the year again in your lifetime, since I had never seen it before in mine. One cannon shot after another, even one in the wee hours back here. Wow!

Notes and asides. Imagine if you were getting married 56 years ago today in Rhode Island and you were a weather fanatic. A big heat wave raging, a monster hurricane lurking in the Caribbean. How could you keep your focus. Well its my mom and dads anniversary today and it was the hottest Columbus Day ever recorded, until the 1990 Columbus day heat wave. In any case, I would have been going out of my mind wondering what was going on. My wife and I got married during the non season of 1992, so that was not a problem.

Even with their wedding day, I couldnt measure up to my mom and dad!

ciao for now ****

Gotta love JB. I rarely ever agree with him, but his insight & passion is what drives me to find him interesting.

Thnx for posting this, btw.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Heeerrreee'ssss JB!

My wife and I got married during the non season of 1992, so that was not a problem.


I'm assuming he means the hurricane off-season, and he's not making the statement that 1992 was a weak tropical season. True, it didn't produce a lot of storms...but one of those was a little thing called Andrew. :-)

All-in-all: some fine weather analysis with a bare minimum of chest-thumping. Plus, he mentioned the really nasty weather in the northeast last evening; did any of you see video of the Bronx/Brooklyn hail event? Wow...
Quoting all4hurricanes:
what's killing Paula in three days? the forecast has her weakening
Non-conducive upper-level conditions - shear, also dry air intrusions & the potential brush or even landfall with the Yucatan Peninsula.
The last 14 days over much of the southern states has been bone dry
1285. HCW
1286. Jax82
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Shear relatively light...for the moment (9:00Z)

Click to Enlarge



Is the shear over the SE CONUS expected to wane in the upcoming days? It just appears to me if Paula tries to go North of Cuba she will be torn apart.
Quoting weatherguy03:
Hurricane Paula Update Oct. 12th. 2010


Thank You Bob, until tomorrow.
Paula at sunrise. A little dark, but visible:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Quoting Jax82:


Is the shear over the SE CONUS expected to wane in the upcoming days? It just appears to me if Paula tries to go North of Cuba she will be torn apart.

Yes. It's expected to diminish some but still appear strong enough to adversely affect this system down the road only if she treks near Cuba and/or points northward. Furthermore, it's really more of the strong west-southwesterly upper level winds that are expected to set up in about 48-72 hours that will impact & hinder Paula near the Yucatan Channel.

I don't see Paula getting any north of 22n.
1291. FLdewey
The shower curtain is strong with this one... she'll stay south.
Funny thing is with Paula, same thing happened with Ida. In fact, Ida held tropical status as far north as Tampa. I expect Paula to remain a tropical system, maybe a bit sheared in the end but as JB explained, if it moves in the direction of the shear, like Wilma, it could keep it's strength. Folks in South Florida may really want to watch this one. Of course no one expected this to be a Hurricane :P ... I told you guys, don't bust the season. It's not over, we have about 2 more storms to go.
Another thing to note is that the GFS has been developing the "R" after Paula dies off, or actually emerging with the new one. Then head snorth towards Florida. This might be what some models have issues with right now.
Quoting FLdewey:
The shower curtain is strong with this one... she'll stay south.


So if it comes my way, should I just cover the windows with shower curtains? Certainly a lot lighter and more stylish than the shutters! ;-)
Quoting Grothar:


it looks like sfla is in the cone of death
dry air already getting to Paula
Quoting reedzone:
Funny thing is with Paula, same thing happened with Ida. In fact, Ida held tropical status as far north as Tampa. I expect Paula to remain a tropical system, maybe a bit sheared in the end but as JB explained, if it moves in the direction of the shear, like Wilma, it could keep it's strength. Folks in South Florida may really want to watch this one. Of course no one expected this to be a Hurricane :P ... I told you guys, don't bust the season. It's not over, we have about 2 more storms to go.


The funny thing is either Paula or another system spawned by Paula is forecast to head toward SW FL next week. GFS seems pretty persistant with this thinking and it seems as if the Euro is coming onboard with this as well. Either way a tremendous amount of rain looks to be in store for FL next week. Latest GFS is showing a good 5 to 10" rains across much of the Penisula. FL may have a setup next week like what happened in NC a couple of weeks back as a deep tropical plum sets up from deep in the Caribbean to across FL.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_264.shtml
Quoting FLdewey:
The shower curtain is strong with this one... she'll stay south.
And the dead has risen...DEWEY! Good to see you back man!
1301. FLdewey
Quoting DookiePBC:


So if it comes my way, should I just cover the windows with shower curtains? Certainly a lot lighter and more stylish than the shutters! ;-)

It's all in the pattern of the curtain... something like a "my little pony" will hold up to a cat 4, but solid colors tend to shred at a min tropical storm. Choose wisely.

Junkvection building to da south...

Hurricane PAULA: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 69 hours lead
Quoting Grothar:


Paula heading to Sfla according to GFS
Quoting FLdewey:

It's all in the pattern of the curtain... something like a "my little pony" will hold up to a cat 4, but solid colors tend to shred at a min tropical storm. Choose wisely.

Junkvection building to da south...



Good Morning Dewey!
Morning Guys!

Paula is a hurricane...ninth of the season.

Current score: 16/9/5

My predicted score (rest of season): 3/1/0
1306. beell
Some dry air making a run at the core of Paula this morning. In the SW quadrant. Note the disappearance of water vapor at about the 7 o'clock position.


GOES WV Floater
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Paula heading to Sfla according to GFS

As a moderate or strong TS?
Quoting cat5hurricane:


Bye Dry Air!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Morning Guys!

Paula is a hurricane...ninth of the season.

Current score: 16/9/5

My predicted score (rest of season): 3/1/0

My prediction is also 19/10/5.
1310. Jax82
The dry air in the GOM is getting smaller in size.

Quoting beell:
Some dry air making a run at the core of Paula this morning. In the SW quadrant. Note the disappearance of water vapor at about the 7 o'clock position.


GOES WV Floater

Yep.
1312. FLdewey
Quoting KeysieLife:
And the dead has risen...DEWEY! Good to see you back man!


Shhhhhh... I are an optical illusion.

Quoting Jeff9641:


Good Morning Dewey!


Morning... had to check your post count to be sure you were the real slim shady. ;-)
well it looks like cayman is out of the woods with this one!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Bye Dry Air!

....and Hello Shear! :)
Quoting Jax82:
The dry air in the GOM is getting smaller in size.



Dry Air is Shrinking in the Gulf...
Quoting FLdewey:


Shhhhhh... I are an optical illusion.



Morning... had to check your post count to be sure you were the real slim shady. ;-)


LOL! I know I guess someone likes me a little too much.
if paula still truding along next wk in the same general area it will be almost impossible to get three more cyclones this yr one is a long shot is 3/4 possible?
1318. Jax82
Interesting how our recent lull in activity the NAO was Positive, and now thats its Negative, we have Paula. It appears it will stay Negative for a little while.

Quoting cat5hurricane:

....and Hello Shear! :)


Shear is actually Low.
AL, 18, 2010101212, 182N, 855W, 65, 992, HU


I think Alex, and many other hurricanes have done this. It seems that Paula is just going through a restructuring stage and within the next few hours should be getting back in shape. The latest satellite imagery is already suggesting that.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Shear is actually Low.
Not for long. Have you read the NHC 5am discussion yet? I like to say my hellos a little early :)
Dewey! Welcome back...
1324. Grothar
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Paula heading to Sfla according to GFS


Don't want to hear that sammy!!!
Just watched tropical update weatherchannel stating not a major threat to South Florida too much wind shear as it progresses to the North and East...small storms more apt to being torn apart by the weather pattern soon to be in place in the gulf...looks like they are taking the track south of Florida just above Cuba and out...so does anyone want to counter the "experts"....????
Quoting toddbizz:
Just watched tropical update weatherchannel stating not a major threat to South Florida too much wind shear as it progresses to the North and East...small storms more apt to being torn apart by the weather pattern soon to be in place in the gulf...looks like they are taking the track south of Florida just above Cuba and out...so does anyone want to counter the "experts"....????
Nice win. Can I get a J E T S Jets Jets Jets!
Quoting Grothar:


Don't want to hear that sammy!!!


Thats What the GFS and Alot of Models are Saying.

I Am Still Not Sure of where it will go.

I Think the track needs to shift west and north at 11am Though.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
09:00 AM UTC October 12 2010
=====================================

An area of convection (90W) located at 12.3N 142.8E or 150 NM southwest of Guam. Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery anda 0452z AMSU microwave pass indicates increased central convection and curved inflow wrapping into a more organized low level circulation center. At 0600z ship observations approximately 60 NM to the southwest of the low level circulation center reported southwesterly winds at 20 knots and a pressure ot 1007 MB. A 0028z ASCAT pass depicts a well defined low level circulation center with west/south-westerlies along the southern semi-circle and stronger east/north easterlies wrapping into the low level circulation center along the northern semi-circle. Upper level analysis reveals that the system is in a region of moderate vertical wind shear with good diffluence aloft, associated with the divergent region of a tropical upper tropospheric trough cell to the northwest. Additionally, a tropical upper tropospheric trough cell to the northeast of the system is beginning to have a positive effect on the system's poleward outflow.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 18-22 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1006 MB. The potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD.
Quoting islander101010:
if paula still truding along next wk in the same general area it will be almost impossible to get three more cyclones this yr one is a long shot is 3/4 possible?


Absolutely.
1331. divdog
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Shear is actually Low.


THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS SHOW
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPACTING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CIRCULATION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD


NHC has this thing going nowhere near sfla.
Convection Has Weakend , But the Overall Structure is Getting Better Organized
Quoting divdog:


THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS SHOW
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPACTING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CIRCULATION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD



NHC has this thing going nowhere near sfla.


What You Just Posted has No Relation or Indication of any track.

It Simply States that Atmopsheric Conditons will Keep it from Attaining a Stronger Hurricane Status.

Track is Still up in the Air

But the GFS and a few reliable models take this into South Florida
Quoting Grothar:


Don't want to hear that sammy!!!


I don't know what GFS he's looking at; the 06Z shows her drifting around but never getting above western Cuba
1336. divdog
Quoting Floodman:


I don't know what GFS he's looking at; the 06Z shows her drifting around but never getting above western Cuba
Thats what I saw also but it is very hard to debate with him on the subject.
Each satellite picture looks better and better.
1338. 7544
Quoting Floodman:


I don't know what GFS he's looking at; the 06Z shows her drifting around but never getting above western Cuba


maybe this one but then again maybe its richard to so fla and not paula chck let us know tia Link
Quoting Floodman:


I don't know what GFS he's looking at; the 06Z shows her drifting around but never getting above western Cuba


The Models Grothar Posted a While Back
Post 1266 also Shows Some AP Models
1342. myway
Quoting sammywammybamy:


What You Just Posted has No Relation or Indication of any track.

It Simply States that Atmopsheric Conditons will Keep it from Attaining a Stronger Hurricane Status.

Track is Still up in the Air

But the GFS and a few reliable models take this into South Florida


Please post the links
Quoting divdog:


THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS SHOW
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPACTING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CIRCULATION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD


NHC has this thing going nowhere near sfla.
...nhc also had this as a invets at this time yesterday,when imo it was obvious it was atleast organized enough to be a td,hrs later first advisory a 60mph ts,the nhc is dam good,but not perfect and their are alot of things unsaid imo...so a fl impact is not out of th question at this time
If one more person says that this thing is heading towards south Florida(which it isn't) I'm going to, to, to, to have a Bud Light Lime.. Is that south Florida landfall a "DEFAULT" when you buy a new computer ??

Palm Beach county here
1345. afj3
Is latest NOGAPS run looking more like GFDL???
wunder what the doc is going to say about paula

should be soon for update
1347. afj3
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
If one more person says that this thing is heading towards south Florida(which it isn't) I'm going to, to, to, to have a Bud Light Lime.. Is that south Florida landfall a "DEFAULT" when you buy a new computer ??

Palm Beach county here

Maybe a hearty would be in order instead of a lager....
Quoting myway:


Please post the links


Cant, The Place im at Blocks the Website I Use to post Computer Models.

Go to ATCF page.
1349. afj3
Quoting afj3:

Maybe a hearty would be in order instead of a lager....

Sorry...hearty ale
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
If one more person says that this thing is heading towards south Florida(which it isn't) I'm going to, to, to, to have a Bud Light Lime.. Is that south Florida landfall a "DEFAULT" when you buy a new computer ??

Palm Beach county here

I'm with you. I'm cracking one open for the hell of it.
SFL SFL SFL SFL have one on me....
1353. divdog
Quoting stillwaiting:
...nhc also had this as a invets at this time yesterday,when imo it was obvious it was atleast organized enough to be a td,hrs later first advisory a 60mph ts,the nhc is dam good,but not perfect and their are alot of things unsaid imo...so a fl impact is not out of th question at this time
Never said a sfla impact was out of the question. Most models do not support a sfla impact at this time. The nhc see no sfla impact at this time. If it does ever make it to sfla it will be weakened by shear to a ts at best. Dry air will also be coming down so things don't look all that good for poor little paula.
...but still yet proclaims it's going to FL and the models are certain of that.

Bud light lime time.
1355. bwi
Such a little system. Less than two degrees north it's just a pleasant Caribbean morning: E winds at 12 kts, 1011mb.
1356. 7544
so far south fla not in the nhc cone we all know what that means lol

if paula inches further north that will change wait watch and see time
cat5....But that might not be a Florida hit until next August 12th as slow as this is going
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Paula is becoming better organized this morning. I don't think dry air was a big issue on the convection collapse. As another blogger mentioned above, Alex went through the same thing. I expect Paula to become a Category 2 storm later today as conditions are favorable for further strengthening.
Quoting Floodman:


I don't know what GFS he's looking at; the 06Z shows her drifting around but never getting above western Cuba
...ensembles,i think...
1360. divdog
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
If one more person says that this thing is heading towards south Florida(which it isn't) I'm going to, to, to, to have a Bud Light Lime.. Is that south Florida landfall a "DEFAULT" when you buy a new computer ??

Palm Beach county here
He can't help himself from predicting sfla.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
cat5....But that might not be a Florida hit until next August 12th as slow as this is going
Fine by me...more time to kick back some more. 12 ounce curl time...gonna get some big ole biceps.
Quoting reedzone:


Paula is becoming better organized this morning. I don't think dry air was a big issue on the convection collapse. As another blogger mentioned above, Alex went through the same thing. I expect Paula to become a Category 2 storm later today as conditions are favorable for further strengthening.


That's what I'm thinking too, until it gets closer to that shear it still has room to strengthen. HH Aircraft leaves in 30 mins.
Quoting Jeff9642:
Oh and remember, to always trust model runs at 264 hours out! Most of the time they confirm, just like the majors that were supposed to come from the western caribbean the last few weeks :)

go away
My neck hurts, I was listening to Glen Glaser
This shear forecast map isn't showing anything major in the way of shear up to Oct 15th...beyond that maybe when she gets sheared apart, if she tries to make a run at South FL. The stronger she gets the further north she might be able to push the envelope?

Lower Level Convergence (12:00Z)

Click to Enlarge

Quoting stillwaiting:
...ensembles,i think...


You're probably right...he's a very excitable young man and likely forgot to qualify his statement
1368. bird72
People in Cuba and South Florida needs to watch this system.
Good morning, everyone!

We had RAIN!! Doing a happy rain dance here.

When did Paula become a hurricane?
1370. 7544
so is this paula or richard at the end of this run tia

Link
I have always wondered why there isn't a "Q"
Queen, Quinton, (Jaws had a Quint ) ??
1372. jonelu
She is so little....The models have been predicting SoFlo since before Matthew and we got nada. So dont put too much faith in them. I see Paula
being ripped apart and the remnants staying south of CONUS. MAYBE Richard develops in her wake. But once again that model "monster storm" hitting Soflo has been playing for so long, I just dont buy it anymore.
Hurricane Paula, huh? The GFS looks like a pinball machine. lol
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone!

We had RAIN!! Doing a happy rain dance here.

When did Paula become a hurricane?

Good morning. You guys sure needed it.

Officially, this morning at the 5am EDT advisory.
Quoting Floodman:


I don't know what GFS he's looking at; the 06Z shows her drifting around but never getting above western Cuba


Hey Flood, what the GFS actually shows is Paula absorbing into a new low that forms near Panama, which makes it Richard, then heads north to Florida.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


XTRP model points to TX/LA landfall.
Quoting bird72:
People in Cuba and South Florida needs to watch this system.
We'll do in Dunedin, WC FL. It has been very dry for several weeks. All summer, if we had a dry spell, rain did make it here to restore balance. I hope we do get 1-2" of precip in the next 3-5 days.
Quoting jonelu:
She is so little....The models have been predicting SoFlo since before Matthew and we got nada. So dont put too much faith in them. I see Paula
being ripped apart and the remnants staying south of CONUS. MAYBE Richard develops in her wake. But once again that model "monster storm" hitting Soflo has been playing for so long, I just dont buy it anymore.

Her tiny size is definitely more susceptible to being torn up by the upcoming strong south-westerly shear and possibly even a brush with the Yucatan.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
cat5....But that might not be a Florida hit until next August 12th as slow as this is going


Are you saying that the 300 day model shows a Florida hit.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Good morning. You guys sure needed it.

Officially, this morning at the 5am EDT advisory.


Oh yes! Still need more, but we'll take every little bit we can get.

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I have always wondered why there isn't a "Q"
Queen, Quinton, (Jaws had a Quint ) ??


There aren't enough names to be used, especially if some are retired, same with letters x, y and z.
Quoting oracle28:


Are you saying that the 300 day model shows a Florida hit.


Hhahaha! That's funny!
oracle28.I looked at the 312 day model and it has it hitting West Palm Beach on August 12th, 2011...No doubt about it
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I have always wondered why there isn't a "Q"
Queen, Quinton, (Jaws had a Quint ) ??


Not enough choices, in case of retirements.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
oracle28.I looked at the 312 day model and it has it hitting West Palm Beach on August 12th, 2011...No doubt about it


I saw that. We'll have to wait a few weeks to know if it's during low-tide or high-tide, however.
Quinton, Quint, Queen, (Freddie Mercury)
Quoting oracle28:


XTRP model points to TX/LA landfall.


huh? There's two cold fronts coming through here, one coming off the Texas coast and and a larger one following it coming down from northwest I think, could be wrong on its direction. But can't imagine anything getting by those. That said, we desperately need a tropical storm for the rain it would bring.
1387. funeeeg
Paula is starting to look like an amorphous congested blob. SHe has a pretty unfavourable environment ahead....
1388. kwgirl
Quoting toddbizz:
Just watched tropical update weatherchannel stating not a major threat to South Florida too much wind shear as it progresses to the North and East...small storms more apt to being torn apart by the weather pattern soon to be in place in the gulf...looks like they are taking the track south of Florida just above Cuba and out...so does anyone want to counter the "experts"....????
Our weatherman here in the Keys is saying we need to watch this. The trough coming through may or may not pick up this storm. Anad they are saying there may be another one forming off of Honduras. So the rest of Fl. may be out of the woods, but the Keys definitely need to be watching this one.
XTRP.......Please don't make me say what this is (again) I need another Bud Light Lime
This is just too funny. It's like a watching a pinball game. Bing! off the Yucatan Bing! off the western tip of Cuba Bing! back to the Yucatan. Hahahha!

Link
1391. divdog
Quoting aislinnpaps:


huh? There's two cold fronts coming through here, one coming off the Texas coast and and a larger one following it coming down from northwest I think, could be wrong on its direction. But can't imagine anything getting by those. That said, we desperately need a tropical storm for the rain it would bring.
Meant as a joke .. xtrp is just a straight line extended based on the storms current movement.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
oracle28.I looked at the 312 day model and it has it hitting West Palm Beach on August 12th, 2011...No doubt about it


those models will shift west though.
Anyone know the latest Doomcast?

What does the CPB model say?
Quoting funeeeg:
Paula is starting to look like an amorphous congested blob. SHe has a pretty unfavourable environment ahead....

She sure does
Good morning to all. This is my first post but I have been following this blog since my experience with Willma on 2005, and I really apreciate it. I live in Cancun, Quintana Roo Mexico, but I´m not a weather expert... so I hope you excuse my intrusion on your blog (and my english). I can not predict if Paula will hit SFL (to be honest, I can not predict Anything!) but I can tell you that the air so far over here (Cancun and Playa del Carmen, just in front of Cozumel) is fresh at 23C (not as warm as it is when we have hurriacane warnigs) No rain yet, and not even as cloudy as it supoussed to be. Any way, I just want to ask you if you think that Paula will go inland? Our authorities are very quiet and there is just a minor alert, however will not be the first time that they rush the alerts last minute, and unfortunately I live in a zone of high flooding risk. Thank you in advance for your answers.
1396. divdog
Quoting BobinTampa:


those models will shift west though.
because the storm will "pump the ridge"
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
XTRP.......Please don't make me say what this is (again) I need another Bud Light Lime

Hell...I'm already on my third. You've got some catching up to do!
Paula still appears to be moving NW. Where's the N turn?
Quoting WillandGrace:
Good morning to all. This is my first post but I have been following this blog since my experience with Willma on 2005, and I really apreciate it. I live in Cancun, Quintana Roo Mexico, but I´m not a weather expert... so I hope you excuse my intrusion on your blog (and my english). I can not predict if Paula will hit SFL (to be honest, I can not predict Anything!) but I can tell you that the air so far over here (Cancun and Playa del Carmen, just in front of Cozumel) is fresh at 23C (not as warm as it is when we have hurriacane warnigs) No rain yet, and not even as cloudy as it supoussed to be. Any way, I just want to ask you if you think that Paula will go inland? Our authorities are very quiet and there is just a minor alert, however will not be the first time that they rush the alerts last minute, and unfortunately I live in a zone of high flooding risk. Thank you in advance for your answers.

Welcome! Glad to have you aboard
I feel like calling in sick tomorrow to watch the
Chilean miners get out of that freekin' hole... Those poor guys. My ex-hubby would have been absolutely bonkers by now. He coundn't even handle it when he went through that revolving tunnel at Ripley's Believe it or Not in St. Augustine Florida.


Moisture continues to spread into the GOM.
So is it time to worry about our honeymoon trip to Cancun on Sunday? :(
1403. myway
Quoting jdshaw971:
So is it time to worry about our honeymoon trip to Cancun on Sunday? :(


Nope...if it is a honeymoon you should not be spending much time outside anyways.
NEW BLOG!!!
Quoting jdshaw971:
So is it time to worry about our honeymoon trip to Cancun on Sunday? :(


Not necessarily, you need to watch it, but don't worry just yet. Give Paula at least a day or two more. We have to really see if she'll intensify nad if she'll be picked up by the trough and swept into FL, or if she meanders around i the NW Caribbean. It's all up in the air for now, but Sunday is still 5 days away.
Don't you hate that when you post something extremely important and the page changes ??
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Don't you hate that when you post something extremely important and the page changes ??

LOL. You could just always bring it over to the next...I'll do that occasionally.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


huh? There's two cold fronts coming through here, one coming off the Texas coast and and a larger one following it coming down from northwest I think, could be wrong on its direction. But can't imagine anything getting by those. That said, we desperately need a tropical storm for the rain it would bring.


Just ignore him..we all know that XTRAP is not a model, just an extrapolation of current heading.

The only thing heading towards TX/LA for the next two weeks are cold fronts and October blue northers. Not saying we couldn't use the rain, but the tropical season is pretty much over for them.


Anthony
Oh...and flip the page, y'all....new blog entry now up.


Anthony
1410. jonelu
Quoting WillandGrace:
Good morning to all. This is my first post but I have been following this blog since my experience with Willma on 2005, and I really apreciate it. I live in Cancun, Quintana Roo Mexico, but I´m not a weather expert... so I hope you excuse my intrusion on your blog (and my english). I can not predict if Paula will hit SFL (to be honest, I can not predict Anything!) but I can tell you that the air so far over here (Cancun and Playa del Carmen, just in front of Cozumel) is fresh at 23C (not as warm as it is when we have hurriacane warnigs) No rain yet, and not even as cloudy as it supoussed to be. Any way, I just want to ask you if you think that Paula will go inland? Our authorities are very quiet and there is just a minor alert, however will not be the first time that they rush the alerts last minute, and unfortunately I live in a zone of high flooding risk. Thank you in advance for your answers.

You should pay attention. Looks like you should be getting a CAT 1 Hurricane or a close brush with one. Paula es tan pequeña y por eso si ella va mas por el este,,,no vas a pasar mucho al playa Del Carmen. Pero ella va estar cerca...entonces tienes que tener dos ojos mirando haste que pasen por Cuba. Estoy seguro que no vas a tener una Wilma o algo tan fuerte.
Well...some good rain in SFL is always welcome...open the spillway in my backyard and catch that 45 inch snook that broke off the last time it poured down here...he's messing with the wrong man...
Some of our storm specific models & OFCL got their first 24hr error ranks on forecast Paula tracks today..shaking up the field a bit.

Finally a few that get her..nose & nose ~ KHRM (cat2 FL panhandle) with 36.9nm error in the last 24hrs & MM5E (Cat3 at Disney World) 37.4nm. OFCL is in the hunt with 38.2nm.

Trailing is the rest doing about as well as they have.. HWRF 78.3, BAMD 93.3, GFDL improved a little 97, LBARS 103. CMC & NOGAPS aren't getting this one. Interesting how CMC doesn't even really have the hurricane on the 12Z run, that is uncharacteristic of it.