WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tropical Storm Omar on the way; Honduras disturbance growing stronger

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:49 PM GMT on October 14, 2008

Tropical Depression Fifteen is lashing northern Colombia, northern Venezuela, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao with heavy rains today, as the storm drifts to the southeast. This morning's 6:35 am EDT QuikSCAT pass saw winds of 45 mph, so this is probably Tropical Storm Omar. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the storm beginning at 2 pm EDT today. Satellite loops show the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity is on the increase, and the cloud pattern is growing more organized. Wind shear has fallen to a moderate 10-15 knots over TD 15, allowing this increased organization to occur. Radar from the Netherlands Antilles shows that the rain has organized into spiral rain bands.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 15.

The track forecast for TD 15
The storm is expected to drift southeastward until an upper-level trough of low pressure swings far enough south tonight to pull the storm northeastward towards Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Variations in timings between the models have narrowed some, with landfall in the Virgin Islands, northern Lesser Antilles Islands, or eastern Puerto Rico expected sometime between Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Heavy rains should spread into the islands tonight, generating additional rainfall totals of 5-10 inches. The eastern portion of the Dominican Republic will likely get 3-6 inches, and Haiti will escape heavy rains from the storm.


Figure 2. Current radar-estimated rainfall from TD 15.

The intensity forecast for TD 15
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate 10-20 knot range over the next two days, and waters will remain warm, 29°C. This should allow TD 15 to intensify into a strong tropical storm with 60-70 mph winds by the time it moves through the Virgin Islands Wednesday evening. The HWRF and GFDL models predict TD 15 will have 65-75 mph sustained winds at landfall Wednesday night.

Links to follow
Puerto Rico radar
Eastern Caribbean buoy 42059
San Juan, Puerto Rico weather

Tropical Depression 16 off the coast of Honduras
Tropical Depression 16, near the Honduras/Nicaragua border, continues to grow more organized. The region is under low wind shear, 5-10 knots. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms that is beginning to take on a spiraling pattern. Heavy rains are affecting extreme northeast Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras.

The forecast for TD 16
Conditions are ripe for TD 16 to intensify into a tropical storm, and a Hurricane Hunter airplane will investigate the storm beginning at 2 pm EDT. The system is expected to track west-northwest today, just off the coast of Honduras. A more west-southwesterly motion may occur tonight and Wednesday, bringing the storm ashore over northern Honduras. Wind shear is forecast to remain low, 5-10 knots, for the rest of the week. As long as the center remains over water more than 50 miles from land and does not stall out, intensification should occur. The system will likely bring 5-10 inches of rain to northern Honduras today through Thursday, potentially causing flash flooding and destructive mudslides. Rain amounts of 2-4 inches are likely today over northeastern Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands. Heavy rains of 4-8 inches will likely affect Belize, northeastern Guatemala, and portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Wednesday night. The heaviest rains will stay south of the resort areas of Cancun and Cozumel, though.

It currently appears that the center of TD 16 will stay close enough to the coast that the storm will not grow large and strong enough to tap into the Pacific Ocean as a major source of moisture. However, the counterclockwise flow of air around the storm is already strong enough that it is pulling in air from the Pacific over northern Costa Rica and Nicaragua. This moist flow of air should generate rain amounts of 2-4 inches today along the Pacific coasts of these countries. If 99L were to grow into a strong tropical storm, this moist flow of air would be capable of generating very dangerous rains in the 10-15 inch range along the Pacific coast of Central America.

Links to follow
Puerto Lempira, Honduras weather


Figure 3. Current satellite image of 99L.

Nana and the child of Nana
Tropical Depression Nana has been torn apart by wind shear of 30-40 knots. Regeneration is unlikely due to the continued high wind shear expected along its path. A small area of disturbed weather south-southeast of Nana, near 15N, 41W (90L), has decreased in organization this morning. The circulation of this "child of Nana" is less apparent on this morning's QuikSCAT pass, and the low-level circulation has now been exposed to view, thanks to high wind shear. Nana has pulled her child northward into a region of higher wind shear, and this shear should prevent the 90L from developing any further.


Figure 4. Current satellite image of 90L, the Child of Nana.

Hurricane Ike relief efforts: Monday 10/13/08 update
From StormJunkie's blog today: Portlight.org is currently preparing the next push of supplies to head to the forgotten populations and disabilities community along the Texas Gulf Coast. Due to the exceptional pricing that U-haul has given us on trucks we have found the cheapest way to transport these goods is to continue to utilize our U-haul deal to transport these goods. We will be delivering many items to these outlying communities early to mid next week. Look for updates on this trip as it happens!

Some of the supplies that are being delivered include 50 manual wheel chairs that were specifically requested by the Houston Mayor of Disabilities. We have also received items from Coleman and Dick's Sporting goods which will be on the truck. A pallet of tents has also been donated by an anonymous person. Some quantity of socks has also been donated. As we receive and secure more items we will continue to update. In the mean time, if any have connections that may be able to help us acquire some of the following items; your timely help is greatly appreciated.


Figure 5. Chief Dickie Uzzle of the Bridge City Fire Department opening supplies sent by Portlight. Supplies were not only needed but also greatly appreciated.

Contributions to the portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

I'll have an update this afternoon after the Hurricane Hunters have had time to sample today's storms.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

the pressuer is low enough to be a cat2 but the winds haven't caught up to the pressure yet. Typical rapid intesification scenario. Give it a few more hours possibly up to 12 to have the windfield catch the pressure.
latest reading was sfc wind 59 knots
I think Omar will Pass 50 miles south of St Croix as a Cat 1 and pass directly by Saba and my local area St Martin as a cat 2 in the next 48 to 72 hours.
no problem pottery
505. eddye
ecmwf after 10 days has td 16 hiting south fla
That VDM was from their center pass - they got a believeable 59kt SFMR towards the edge of the CDO.
507. Relix
WOOOOWW. Just came back from College, local met was talking on the radio about the high probability of Omar becoming a Hurricane at 5 or 8PM. Is this true?
oops just read what i posted that should say Cat 1 not 2. My apollogies
Quoting pottery:
Seastep. That is flight level winds, No??


Look at the "D" line.
And, no, you're not crazy pottery... I modified after realizing that one-liner didn't have surface winds in it. ;)
64kt flight level, 60kt SFMR this pass. Pressure 986.
Thanks guys. I been looking at this dam screen too much today. Losing it.
Gone for a while to get physical.
Promised the wife I would dig some holes for some citrus plants.
She should have married superman.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 986.9mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.2 4.5 4.6
This if for Omar

GEEZ its a huricane according to Dvorak estimates
Quoting Dar9598:
I think Omar will Pass 50 miles south of St Croix as a Cat 1 and pass directly by Saba and my local area St Martin as a cat 2 in the next 48 to 72 hours.


SHIPS is very bullish with 119mph at 48 hours.
Quoting PR51:
With all respect to my colleagues, but I don't see any northeastern movement from Omar. So How could be possible to say that the center of this storm will have a direct impact on the island? I would really appreciate your scientific explanation. Thanks.


Turns out the system is expected to meander in the area it is at for some time. Moving South, South East and then start to move more easterly.

If you look at a water vapor imagery you will see that there is a trof coming down and it is reaching the Cuba and Hispaniola coasts.
You will also see that the clouds in the area of the USVI and BVI are already being influenced by the trof and are being pushed Northeasterly.
Essentially, with time, Omar will feel the same winds those clouds NE of Puerto Rico feel and is going to start to turn Northeasterly itself.
The exact point it decides to turn is critical for Puerto Rico as is its strength.
Unfortunately, Omar seems to want to be a rapid intensifier and this could mean a higher risk for Puerto Rico than was expected when we saw the models trend easterly and away from the Island.

And THAT is why it is still a risk for Puerto Rico and shouldnt be called off as a close miss.
Either way, the cloud field and rain it is carrying will be an issue by themselves.
516. Prgal
Quoting benirica:


Turns out the system is expected to meander in the area it is at for some time. Moving South, South East and then start to move more easterly.

If you look at a water vapor imagery you will see that there is a trof coming down and it is reaching the Cuba and Hispaniola coasts.
You will also see that the clouds in the area of the USVI and BVI are already being influenced by the trof and are being pushed Northeasterly.
Essentially, with time, Omar will feel the same winds those clouds NE of Puerto Rico feel and is going to start to turn Northeasterly itself.
The exact point it decides to turn is critical for Puerto Rico as is its strength.
Unfortunately, Omar seems to want to be a rapid intensifier and this could mean a higher risk for Puerto Rico than was expected when we saw the models trend easterly and away from the Island.

And THAT is why it is still a risk for Puerto Rico and shouldnt be called off as a close miss.
Either way, the cloud field and rain it is carrying will be an issue by themselves.


You can see it here: Link
Looks like finaly Omar is in his move to the NE as forescast, sooner that in the 11am advisory i expect shift to the left in the track.
Omar's reminding me a little to much of Wilma.
Only except not in the western Caribbean. Omar appears to be almost a hurricane too judging by Recon reports, PR Radar shows an eye structure forming, with an eyewall around it.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Tropical Depression ... Nana
Present Satellite picture ... Nana

Tropical Storm ... Omar
Present Satellite picture TS Omar ... Omar
Hurricane Hunters TS Omar ... Tracks and Vortex reports

Tropical Depression ... 16
Present Satellite picture ... TD 16
Hurricane Hunters TD 16 ... Tracks and Vortex reports

Invest ... 90L
Present Satellite picture ... Invest 90L

Present Satellite picture Caribbean
Present Satellite picture GOM
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
Present Satellite picture Large overall Coverage
CMC 00Z..
Quoting antonio28:
Looks like finaly Omar is in his move to the NE as forescast, sooner that in the 11am advisory i expect shift to the left in the track.


What makes you think that?
It's probably later tonight that the storm will move east then tomorrow morning the storm begin to move east northeastward then in the afternoon northeastward that mean the uncertain cone could be from the Virgin Islands to Guadeloupe or perhaps even Dominica...Somewhat like Lenny...
omar is on his way to the graveyard soon, no worries here, we dodged another bullet once again! I feel very bad for puerto rico though! i also calculated the possibility of this storm coming to the united states and its 0.017883947392739020889300028............! yay
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Storms that are too close to each other tend to shear each other apart, or the stronger storm shears the weaker one (see Gustav and Hanna).


Gustav sheared the living Crap out of Hanna to the point of near death from a Category 1. Gustav was a Category 4 at the time.
Omar looks a lot more than "El Zorito"Lenny track in 1999 than Klaus in 1984.
whoo hoo, death to omar, death to omar, lololol
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Omar's reminding me a little to much of Wilma.
Only except not in the western Caribbean. Omar appears to be almost a hurricane too judging by Recon reports, PR Radar shows an eye structure forming, with an eyewall around it.


Link please Cyber... don't think PR radar can reach that far... thanks.
Quoting Seastep:


Link please Cyber... don't think PR radar can reach that far... thanks.


It cant. I checked and didnt see any hints of that.
528. Relix
Quoting antonio28:
Looks like finaly Omar is in his move to the NE as forescast, sooner that in the 11am advisory i expect shift to the left in the track.


Convection fooling you
Hispaniola and even Puerto Rico wont be affecting much by Omar.
Quoting Relix:


Convection fooling you


Omar is being stretched from S.W. to N.E. He should start moving N.E. real soon. I can't see anywhere else for him to go.
Can someone put the track of "El Zorito" or "Wrong Way Lenny" please.
Omar will start moving NE in the next 12 to 24 hours from now.
533. Relix
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Omar is being stretched from S.W. to N.E. He should start moving N.E. real soon. I can't see anywhere else for him to go.


I am seeing that, but...isn't it too early?
534. JRRP
Quoting Dar9598:
Omar will start moving NE in the next 12 to 24 hours from now.

i think it´s moving NE now
Idont think it is too early I think it is right on time and maybe the only think it means is that the track wont be shifted any more to ther right unfortunately.

What do the pros think?
Quoting Dar9598:
Can someone put the track of "El Zorito" or "Wrong Way Lenny" please.


Quoting Relix:


I am seeing that, but...isn't it too early?


Never say never when dealing with weather. Anythings possible.
We've seen plenty of storms do the opposite of what's expected.
But with high pressue diving down over the S.E. and a strong N.E flow out a head of it, Omar should get moving pretty soon.
Anyone notice how it looks ugly on the floater...
Its a huge system and you need to look at the Caribbean images to fully appreciate it and see its structure.
Quoting JRRP:

i think it´s moving NE now


Yep and pushing the GAS!! PR landfall??
In Dominica they can experience minimum 12 foot waves and maximum 15 foot waves and Gradual increasing in the northen Islands like Lenny and Klaus.
wow! 989 MB is not a misreading
I really think the FUJI..... effect have starting between TD 16 and OMAR.... Make a look at this picture and you will see mnore about that :



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 985.3mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.3 4.5 4.6
I am a long time lurker, but feel the need to comment on something. The vast majority of people here provide a valuable service by getting much need information on these storms and projected paths out to the public.

However, I have also noticed a small number here that think they know everything about the weather and seem to wish that every little thing that flares up to become a catagory 5 storm that will destroy lives.

I count on people here to keep me informed and I give you a big thumbs up. For the few that want death and destruction (GET A LIFE).
the winds should be at 70 MPH to match Omar's 989 MB
Puertoricans avoid rumors, do what is proper, under this circunstances, our major threat from this system or any system are the floods.
amen to that...
youll also probably know storms ar always gulf bound here too!
lol
just playing with you guys
549. Relix
I can't see the NE movement component.
Brand new Vortex message
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 19:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 15L in 2008
Storm Name: Omar (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 19:06:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 1354'N 6846'W (13.9N 68.7667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 325 miles (524 km) to the SSE (167) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,322m (4,337ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SSE (154) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 229 at 63kts (From the SW at ~ 72.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SSE (159) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 986mb (29.12 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17C (63F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24C (75F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19C (66F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:02:10Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
CENTER 20 NM NEARLY CIRCULAR WITH FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING
The Western Atlantic Water Vapor Loop really shows what's going on.
You can see the strong High Pressure starting to build down into the S.E. and off shore waters. That High Pressure will protect the Mainland U.S. for a while.
Possibly next week something could sneak back up from the Caribbean?
But for now that High is a blocking force pushing everthing away from it.


impressive overshooting tops right at the center
weather is deliciously unpredictable...
but you have to admit it is prtty cool how things can be predicted.
like how this trof would dip down like this and all.
the advances made in studying weather are really awesome
wow! Omar might be a cane tomorrow!
cycloone when you have a rapidly intesifing system such as this one the wind speeds lag behind the pressures by several hours.
ok.
the meteorologist confirmed it.
i had my doubt, but i trust her 100%.
she said that the pressure is almost hurricane strength and that satellite images show it has turned to the North East, or is about to.
A little earlier then thought.
I dont think its an issue for the track, it confirms it for me.
Oh, also. she said the wind field expanded.
Out for the day. Will check back in in the morning. Close to 70 mph surface winds and the Recon is making another pass. Have a good evening.
CENTER 20 NM NEARLY CIRCULAR WITH FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING CENTER

I say thats showing impressive structure. Last remarks were open eye now cicular with feeder bands.

Now we should see the winds picking up.
Quoting Bonedog:
cycloone when you have a rapidly intesifing system such as this one the wind speeds lag behind the pressures by several hours.


Yep... but it is at 70, basically... 69mph
Good afternoon,

Does all this trough, high pressure mean the season is over fo florida now?
Quoting Bonedog:
cycloone when you have a rapidly intesifing system such as this one the wind speeds lag behind the pressures by several hours.
Example:
Gustav: 08/28 15 GMT 70MPH 983MB
Seastep I just read the 70mph wind speed when I refreshed LOL

The winds are starting to catch up probably because of what I just mentioned in my previous post
Quoting Autistic2:
Good afternoon,

Does all this trough, high pressure mean the season is over fo florida now?


No
It just protecting Florida right now. Once that high moves out of the way, the door will open back up for a possible system.
We still need to keep our guard up.
OMAR DOESN'T MOVE NE YET. IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. I SEE A SE MOVEMENT ANT IT BECOME A BIT MORE ASYMETRIC.
Puerto Rico is a colony ,woops, americans hate that word, should say territory,we don't vote for the president,only delegates to the parties conventions. Back to Omar, getting stronger,watch out, just in case doesn't jog to the west, putting its eye on top of us, in a direct hit scenario.
Brace yourselves as we can watch an expect a big lash as the South feeder band prepares to swipe the Island chain from South to North
569. Relix
Wooow.. this looks bad. Stronger... and turning NE before expected.
Quoting Dar9598:
Can someone put the track of "El Zorito" or "Wrong Way Lenny" please.
The Leewards Islands at high risk of Waves in the Caribbean sea. Unlike such storm and intensity like Ivan Emily and Dean, a reversal Hurricane moving westward to eastward will Double his high waves like Klaus, that was even more destructive than a major hurricane and Lenny.
Quoting benirica:
weather is deliciously unpredictable...
but you have to admit it is prtty cool how things can be predicted.
like how this trof would dip down like this and all.
the advances made in studying weather are really awesome


All I can say is "Thank heaven for modern forecasting" despite erros and anomalies. I cannot even imagine what real old timers (actually only back as far as 1930s even)went thru in Schooners out and about in Caribbean and/or on small Islands.
Cayman Brac Museum has a very poignant Memorial to all the victims of the "32 Storm" including those who perished at sea.
We are fortunate how modern science helps us so much
Quoting cycloone:
wow! Omar might be a cane tomorrow!


I say tonight! a 70mph at 5pm and the eight cane of the season at 11pm.
New blog.
pressure 986 on last pass 64 knt winds

virtually a hurricane
Thanks a lot, GreyElf.
are my eyes deceiving me or is there some interaction between Omar and TD 16?
New Blog
cyclone- Perhaps a hurricane tonight !!!
580. PR51
When those persons are saying that there is a NE movement in Omar, in what evidence they are relying? Because I haven't seen that turn yet. Let's see the 5 PM. I bet for more SE movement and a readjustment of the projected path more than 150 miles from our east coast.
581. DDR
Quoting gwadaman:
Brace yourselves as we can watch an expect a big lash as the South feeder band prepares to swipe the Island chain from South to North

One of many to come.I'm in Trinidad,expecting to see a lightening show maybe tonight or tomorrow as the feeder bands approach.
582. KBH
thanks for the warning DR. I am in Barbados and after today's floods I think dingys will be the mode of transportation when that system comes!!
583. KBH
I might also need a neck brace as it looks like it will be a whip lash as well
584. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting DDR:

One of many to come.I'm in Trinidad,expecting to see a lightening show maybe tonight or tomorrow as the feeder bands approach.


Yes, very much so! as Omar gets closer to the Island Chain. I have one 3" trash pump running alredy and 2 more on standby, Barbados can't take anymore water. At present the rain has stopped for a while now, winds are from.........they is no wind and just waiting for DMAX to kick in later and the process to start all over again.

Think its time to have a Rum and see how it develops from there.......the Rum hat is..LOL
PR51...your prediction is as wrong as your name...sit back and watch the news in five minutes...