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Tropical Storm Nadine forms; Newfoundland cleans up after Leslie

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:03 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine formed last night, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and continues to grow more organized today as it heads west-northwest at 17 mph. The models unanimously predict that Nadine will recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. Nadine is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Hurricane Nadine by Thursday. A NASA remotely-piloted Global Hawk research aircraft is currently flying a 26-hour mission in Nadine, as part of the HS3 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Program. The data collected will help scientists decipher the relative roles of the large-scale environment and internal storm processes that affect hurricanes.

With fourteen named storms already this season, 2012 is now one of just 19 hurricane seasons over the past 162 years to have fourteen or more tropical storms. Nadine's formation date of September 10 puts 2012 in 5th place for earliest formation date of the season's 14th tropical storm. Only 2005, 2011, 1936, and 1933 had earlier formation dates of the season's 14th storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models predict that a trough of low pressure about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast will serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday. This low may spend enough time over water to acquire tropical characteristics and become a named storm by the middle of next week.

Newfoundland cleans up after Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie made landfall in Southern Newfoundland at 8 am EDT September 11 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and a central pressure of 969 mb. Leslie brought sustained winds to Newfoundland's capital, St. Johns, of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Cape Pine record the highest gust from Leslie, 85 mph. The storm tore off roofs, downed trees, and toppled power lines, and 45,000 households were without power Tuesday afternoon in Newfoundland, including much of the capital of St. Johns. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. However, the rains were far less than those experienced during Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. I expect damage from Leslie will be less than $20 million. Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. MTWX
Quoting auburn:


Well they didnt seem to last long..looks like admin is on the case tonight!


I must have missed something...
** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY SANBA 1216 (1216) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC
00HR 14.9N 129.9E 960HPA 40M/S
30KTS 280KM
50KTS 90KM
P12HR NNW 15KM/H
P+24HR 17.8N 128.8E 945HPA 48M/S
P+48HR 21.2N 127.6E 935HPA 52M/S (105 knots)
P+72HR 24.9N 126.1E 935HPA 52M/S
P+96HR 28.7N 124.8E 945HPA 48M/S
P+120HR 35.4N 124.6E 950HPA 42M/S=

2 minute sustained winds average prediction from China
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Just took the pup for a walk. Nice and breezy in Lake Worth. Thank you near 0 %.


Heavy rain in Fort Lauderdale, moving your way.
Quoting MTWX:


I must have missed something...
Something that wasn't meant to be seen on the blog.
Quoting MTWX:


I must have missed something...


Naa just a couple of trouble making trolls..why anyone would troll a weather blog I just dont understand..
Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like a 120mph storm.
It looks better than what Irene ever was.
Quoting kshipre1:
Anyone know when the high pressure in the atlantic is supposed to get stronger and go further westward?


The Bermuda high is on a weakening trend and appears to even disappear in about 10 days. Time to focus on them homegrowns after Oscar!
508. txjac
Wow, what does Houston have to do to get some meaningful rain ...Largo, please send some our way ...Florida has had enough!

I want/need rain/thunder/lightening!
Whatever happened to Orcasystems? I kind of expected him to come back and post.
Quoting MTWX:


I must have missed something...


Nah, just a good night to lurk a bit. We're heading back into the high temps again, but I really enjoyed the cooler temps while they lasted.
Quoting txjac:
Wow, what does Houston have to do to get some meaningful rain ...Largo, please send some our way ...Florida has had enough!

I want/need rain/thunder/lightening!

Be careful what you wish for...

Also... look at the NWS discussion. Happiness for those wanting rain is contained within.
512. MTWX
Quoting washingtonian115:
Something that wasn't meant to be seen on the blog.
Quoting auburn:


Naa just a couple of trouble making trolls..why anyone would troll a weather blog I just dont understand..


Ahh... OK.

I've been in and out tonight, the conspiracy theory arguments earlier were pretty entertaining though.

I miss snow too, for any of you who are still on that subject...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sanba is up to 105 mph.


I say stronger than 105mph, probably a cat3.

Quoting weatherh98:
Stooping low this evening with race arguments...

Can't believe dat


Sanba is just... WOW



And Nadine is nearing hurricane status!



Lotta heat energy is being taken out of the north central atlantic and not much is getting sucked away from the north Caribbean.

Season should begin to focus back that way after the last few cv storms.


Sanba is just simply amazing and Nadine is getting there. I expect a hurricane a 5am and a cat2 100mph peak for Nadine.
Quoting Dakster:
Whatever happened to Orcasystems? I kind of expected him to come back and post.


He's still around, he drops by every now and then.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I say stronger than 105mph, probably a cat3.


Sanba is just simply amazing and Nadine is getting there. I expect a hurricane a 5am and a cat2 100mph peak for Nadine.


Soon enough

This storm has definitely Taken its sweet time
516. txjac
Quoting jeffs713:

Be careful what you wish for...

Also... look at the NWS discussion. Happiness for those wanting rain is contained within.


Wow, I hope so ...watched it APPEAR to be coming my way today and then fade out or go around me ...
The Nadine Song:

Nadine, Nadine, You treated us so mean.
Nadine, Nadine, You treated us so mean.
You were too fast to live,
You were too young to die,
Bye-Bye.
Quoting txjac:


Wow, I hope so ...watched it APPEAR to be coming my way today and then fade out or go around me ...


Same thing here. Came home and it was thundering, heavy dark clouds covering the sky, wind picking up. I went inside to check the radar, knowing I wouldn't have to water the garden and then watched the radar as it broke up and rained all around us, but not here.
Dang it i always miss the entertaining troll comments. :(
522. MTWX
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Nah, just a good night to lurk a bit. We're heading back into the high temps again, but I really enjoyed the cooler temps while they lasted.


Suppose to stay pretty mild here... Highs in the mid 80's with lows in the lower 60's... Great for turning off the AC and opening up the windows at night!

Once the big trough they are forecasting comes through, they are only forecasting us to get into the mid 70's for highs the couple of days following!!
523. MTWX
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Same thing here. Came home and it was thundering, heavy dark clouds covering the sky, wind picking up. I went inside to check the radar, knowing I wouldn't have to water the garden and then watched the radar as it broke up and rained all around us, but not here.


I get alot more thunder here than I do rain! It likes to just sit there and tease me on the other side of the border in Alabama.
Quoting MTWX:


Suppose to stay pretty mild here... Highs in the mid 80's with lows in the lower 60's... Great for turning off the AC and opening up the windows at night!

Once the big trough they are forecasting to come through, they are only forecastion us to get into the mid 70's for highs the couple of days following!!


Upper 80's forecasted here in west central Louisiana, with good chances of rain. But the humidity will keep me from opening windows. :(

But Fall is coming, I just need to be patient. *S*
Quoting RTLSNK:


He's still around, he drops by every now and then.


Thanks... I see he updates and comments in his blog... I knew I was missing something and finally figured out what it was.

Have a good night everyone.
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
Dang it i always miss the entertaining troll comments. :(


didn't miss anything important
528. etxwx
Link
Thursday, September 13th, 2012 - MANILA, Philippines
Tropical storm Karen (aka Sanba) strenghtened anew as it moved towards the Philippine Sea, the state weather bureau said Thursday.
Karen was spotted 540 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes packing maximum sustained winds of 105 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 135 kph. It was forecast to move northwest at 15 kph, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said.
Occasional light to moderate rains will be experienced over CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol region and Visayas while the rest of the country will have partly cloudy skies with brief rainshowers or thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, Metro Manila will be partly cloudy to cloudy with light to moderate rains and thunderstorms. Moderate to strong winds blowing from the southwest to south and Manila Bay will be moderate to rough.
Small fishing boats and vessels were warned not to venture into the sea and large vessels were alerted against big waves as strong to gale force wind is expected to affect the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
Most of the models predict that a trough of low pressure about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast will serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday. This low may spend enough time over water to acquire tropical characteristics and become a named storm by the middle of next week. --JM



LinkWVLoopEASTUS
Sandba track is slightly east from last night.

Quoting Chicklit:
Sandba track is slightly east from last night.



Now almost tracking over Okinawa.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Now almost tracking over Okinawa.

dang...as a Cat4
Where is the trough storm supposed to go?
Guess I'll have to find out in the morning.
adios and goodnight
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Now almost tracking over Okinawa.


didnt they just get hit by a 4 a couple of weeks ago?
Quoting weatherh98:


Soon enough

This storm has definitely Taken its sweet time

?

It was just declared a tropical cyclone yesterday.
Quoting Thing342:
Feels very fall-like here in SE VA. Hoping that we finally see snow this year.


Same here in Richmond. Last year was a dud. Hopefully the jet stream will be in our favor this time :).
Quoting Grothar:


Heavy rain in Fort Lauderdale, moving your way.


Trof of low pressure moving through sfl toinght. Gusts to 35-40mph with any of these fast moving showers.


i see some pink showing up on radar hmmmm wet snow
...NADINE JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...
11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 12
Location: 20.7°N 50.1°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 12 2012

THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW WRAPS ALMOST COMPLETELY AROUND
THE CENTER. THE CDO HAS ALSO INCREASED IN SIZE AND TOPS HAVE COOLED
BELOW -80C NEAR THE CENTER...AND IN MOST OF THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT AT 00Z...
BUT THE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE SINCE THEN. THE LATEST
UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T3.9/63 KT. HOWEVER...WITH NO
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA THAT WOULD BE USEFUL IN DETERMINING IF NADINE
HAS AN EYE UNDERNEATH THE COLD CLOUD CANOPY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BEING HELD JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL NORTHWESTWARD...OR 305/14 KT. OTHER THAN
MINOR WOBBLES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...NADINE HAS BASICALLY BEEN
ON TRACK. FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO...NADINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG
32-33N LATITUDE. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE
TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TV15 THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN
LIES WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THOSE MODELS DUE TO THE GFDL MODEL BEING
A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WITH ITS FAST NORTHWARD TRACK AT DAYS 4/5.

NADINE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AT JUST BELOW
THE RATE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE POSSESSES AN
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS NADINE
MOVES BETWEEN A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS NORTHEAST AND A
SMALLER LOW TO ITS WEST. THE COMBINATION OF A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
PATTERN AND RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...A SHARP INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A CAPPING OF THE INTENSITY BY
36 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INDUCE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 48 HOURS
AND BEYOND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 20.7N 50.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 22.1N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 24.2N 53.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 26.4N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 28.6N 53.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 30.9N 50.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 31.8N 44.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 32.9N 38.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
543. SLU
...NADINE JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...


LOOK AT HER LOVELY UP-SIDE-DOWN HEART She's in love
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
800 PM PDT WED SEP 12 2012

...TROPICAL STORM KRISTY A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 107.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
800 PM PDT WED SEP 12 2012

THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES AND THE BD-CURVE INFRARED ENHANCEMENT
INDICATE THAT KRISTY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER AND BANDING IS IMPROVING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT...AND THIS AGREES WITH A BLEND
OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS REVEAL A QUITE IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE TROPICAL STORM. THIS WIND ANALYSIS
CONTRADICTS THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES
15-20 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS LIKELY JUST THE STRONG
OUTFLOW OF THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. KRISTY SHOULD
STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE ENCOUNTERING MUCH
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST INDICATES A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KT AT THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...FURTHER
STRENGTHENING TO A LOW-END HURRICANE IS POSSIBLE...AS INDICATED BY
THE SHIPS AND THE HWRF MODELS. SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AFTER THAT...AND KRISTY SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
AROUND DAY 4...IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS BASED
PRIMARLY ON THE IVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HWRF
MODEL ALL SHOW THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER KRISTY GENERALLY
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY THE
GFDL MODEL INDICATES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48-72 HOURS. IN PREVIOUS YEARS...THIS
PARTICULAR MODEL HAS EXHIBITED A NORTH OR RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES LOCATED SOUTH OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE
TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS...WHICH LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 18.0N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 18.5N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 19.2N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 20.0N 111.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 21.1N 113.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 23.5N 116.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 25.0N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z 25.5N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

My Forecast, the track and intensity remains the same for me even though this is 6 hours old:

I'll be working on a blog with all of my thoughts in the morning.
Quoting weatherh98:


Soon enough

This storm has definitely Taken its sweet time
NADINE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AT JUST BELOW
THE RATE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
Quoting weatherh98:


Soon enough

This storm has definitely Taken its sweet time

Wait what, it has been intensifying quickly?
549. 7544
bahamma blob getting blobish again new conv moving west fl goona get wet
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Now almost tracking over Okinawa.


Two majors in less than a month!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST September 13 2012
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 36.5N 144.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest at 7 knots.
Quoting wxchaser97:


My Forecast, the track and intensity remains the same for me even though this is 6 hours old:


I like your forecast intensities...just like mine taking it over 100 mph..
I don't understand why the NHC keeps the storm not going past 85 mph???
Quoting etxwx:
Link
Thursday, September 13th, 2012 - MANILA, Philippines
Tropical storm Karen (aka Sanba) strenghtened anew as it moved towards the Philippine Sea, the state weather bureau said Thursday.
Karen was spotted 540 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes packing maximum sustained winds of 105 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 135 kph. It was forecast to move northwest at 15 kph, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said.
Occasional light to moderate rains will be experienced over CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol region and Visayas while the rest of the country will have partly cloudy skies with brief rainshowers or thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, Metro Manila will be partly cloudy to cloudy with light to moderate rains and thunderstorms. Moderate to strong winds blowing from the southwest to south and Manila Bay will be moderate to rough.
Small fishing boats and vessels were warned not to venture into the sea and large vessels were alerted against big waves as strong to gale force wind is expected to affect the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

I knew it was still alive and out there somewhere. I can't wait for next year when the name Karen is on the list again.
Quoting wxchaser97:


My Forecast, the track and intensity remains the same for me even though this is 6 hours old:


100 mph seems a lot more reasonable than topping out at 85.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I like your forecast intensities...just like mine taking it over 100 mph..
I don't understand why the NHC keeps the storm not going past 85 mph???

Right now looking at past organization/strengthening trends 85mph in 24 hrs seems likely and getting up to 100mph before shear begins to affect Nadine. It could go higher and I have everything broken down in my blog tomorrow morning at between 7-8am.
Quoting Slamguitar:


100 mph seems a lot more reasonable than topping out at 85.

I actually agree with the NHC 100% through 24hrs, then I strengthen her more and then weaken her instead of faster weakening.
557. flsky
Back from La Place, LA. Quite a bit of damage, but not horrid in that area. The problem there was the lake on one side and the river on the other, plus being in a low-lying area. They had no evac orders and were mostly taken by surprise with fast-rising waters. Most were gotten out by small boats and early on, some dump trucks. Most people in my contact had 1-4 ft of water inside their homes.
** WTPQ20 BABJ 130300 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY SANBA 1216 (1216) INITIAL TIME 130300 UTC
00HR 15.3N 129.7E 950HPA 45M/S (90 knots)

30KTS 300KM
50KTS 110KM
P12HR NNW 15KM/H
P+24HR 18.2N 128.7E 935HPA 52M/S
P+48HR 21.5N 127.7E 930HPA 55M/S (110 knots)
P+72HR 25.3N 126.0E 935HPA 52M/S
Quoting flsky:
Back from La Place, LA. Quite a bit of damage, but not horrid in that area. The problem there was the lake on one side and the river on the other, plus being in a low-lying area. They had no evac orders and were mostly taken by surprise with fast-rising waters. Most were gotten out by small boats and early on, some dump trucks. Most people in my contact had 1-4 ft of water inside their homes.

Isaac's impacts are still being felt and he will never soon be forgotten. The "only cat1" thing bugs me though, something needs to be done about that.
oh the molals just keep gettin' better and better for Florida Fall weather!!!
Quoting wxchaser97:

Isaac's impacts are still being felt and he will never soon be forgotten. The "only cat1" thing bugs me though, something needs to be done about that.


I would blame it on the public, but in this case I honestly think it's more that we lack adequate means to communicate the storm surge/size threat.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Isaac's impacts are still being felt and he will never soon be forgotten. The "only cat1" thing bugs me though, something needs to be done about that.


Isaac's biggest effects
were cause by
its slow forward speed
and lack of direction
which caused a prolonged
somewhat stalled event
the result of which
significant impacts were felt

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Isaac's biggest effects
were cause by
its slow forward speed
and lack of direction
which caused a prolonged
somewhat stalled event
the result of which
significant impacts were felt



Get rid of the drought, open up the avenue for hurricanes. Keep the drought, lose the hurricanes, but also lose valuable agriculture.

Take your pick guys.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I would blame it on the public, but in this case I honestly think it's more that we lack adequate means to communicate the storm surge/size threat.

I really think an improved system needs to be out in place as Isaac is just 1 example. Ike 4 years ago was another similar storm. The surge threat was never really known and people assumed since Isaac was "only a category 1 hurricane" everything would be fine.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Get rid of the drought, open up the avenue for hurricanes. Keep the drought, lose the hurricanes, but also lose valuable agriculture.

Take your pick guys.

For me and my area it is easy to say get rid of drought as that affects us way more than hurricanes. I have to think of the people though and it is a lose-lose situation if you look at it that way.
Fresh Cloudsat of 11E
I have to go to sleep so I can get up for school and write a blog, see you in the morning.
Quoting wxchaser97:

For me and my area it is easy to say get rid of drought as that affects us way more than hurricanes. I have to think of the people though and it is a lose-lose situation if you look at it that way.


Is there ever a silver lining to weather?
Quoting wxchaser97:

I really think an improved system needs to be out in place as Isaac is just 1 example. Ike 4 years ago was another similar storm. The surge threat was never really known and people assumed since Isaac was "only a category 1 hurricane" everything would be fine.


Evacuation orders won't go up if the storm surge threat is not properly conveyed. Water kills, not wind (unless you're Andrew).

I know someone at Walmart who had four feet of water in her home two weeks ago. I haven't talked to her since then (haven't seen her) so I don't know the state of things now. She was really sad though.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TYPHOON KAREN (SANBA)
11:00 AM PhST September 13 2012
==============================

"KAREN" has intensified into a typhoon while still over the East Philippine Sea

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Karen (Sanba) located at 15.1°N 129.6°E or 760 km east of Infanta, Quezon has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Additional Information
===========================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy) within the 550 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of central and southern Luzon, eastern seabord of Visayas and Mindanao due to strong winds generated by Typhoon "Karen".

"Karen" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over the western section of Visayas and of Mindanao.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
TYPHOON SANBA (T1216)
12:00 PM JST September 13 2012
======================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Sanba (945 hPa) located at 15.3N 129.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 17.9N 129.1E - 90 (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 20.8N 128.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
69 HRS: 25.0N 126.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
Salton Sea was confirmed as the source for the stench that traveled all the way to LA on Monday. Someone posted it here, radar & everything, spot on as to the cause for stench travel.. It was that storm.
Well 10N, 37W is getting a few more clouds. Might be interesting in a day or two. I'm feeling the return of the Kmankid.
Here we go!  the Caribbean need to watch out.

Interesting little feature around 10.5N/37W. Looks like it is slowly gaining a little bit of convection. I wonder if since this is at such a low latitude, it could avoid being scooped up by the troughiness along the east coast and sneak its way into the Caribbean Sea? Would be interesting if this became cute little Oscar :)
The T wave that is coming of Africa tomorrow has a very good chance to track westward. Is at a very low latitude with a building high north of the Caribbean.

Why am I still wide awake when I have to be at work for 9 (for those outside of my particular timezone, it's 11:25 PM here)? In fact, I'll probably still be up at 4, lol.

Who needs sleep? I will proudly reserve that for my grave. Priorities, kiddies. Priorities.
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
The T wave that is coming of Africa tomorrow has a very good chance to track westward. Is at a very low latitude with a building high north of the Caribbean.

can you give me the link for the GFS please.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why am I still wide awake when I have to be at work for 9 (for those outside of my particular timezone, it's 11:25 PM here)? In fact, I'll probably still be up at 4, lol.

Who needs sleep? I will proudly reserve that for my grave. Priorities, kiddies. Priorities.


Sleep is for chumps, haha.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why am I still wide awake when I have to be at work for 9 (for those outside of my particular timezone, it's 11:25 PM here)? In fact, I'll probably still be up at 4, lol.

Who needs sleep? I will proudly reserve that for my grave. Priorities, kiddies. Priorities.

What is your take on that cute little tropical wave at 10.5N/37W? I don't recall any of the models picking up on it. Looks like a sneaky little critter.
Just looked at the clock and realized that at this time 4 years ago, I had already lost power from Ike. 13 days later the power came back, and I had a new appreciation for electricity.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Is there ever a silver lining to weather?


Autumn! Cool, crisp, dry air after months of unrelenting heat. Beautiful changing leaves, nostalgic scents. I just love Autumn. :)
If this verify, this is definitely a crazy year. I guess will depends on how fast this next T wave moves westward. We haven't  receive  a T wave coming through PR since before Isaac. Thist is a long time for this time of the year. Apparently we have a wall protecting the Easter caribbean this year.

Quoting lobdelse81:

What is your take on that cute little tropical wave at 10.5N/37W? I don't recall any of the models picking up on it. Looks like a sneaky little critter.


I would say that it should be watched. Upper-level winds aren't forecast to be too bad. At most, a bit of easterly shear on the south of the subtropical ridge, which isn't really unusual for systems in the deep tropics in any given year. Currently, the biggest hurdles are dry air in front of the wave, and of course South America. It needs to gain latitude if it means to survive.

In any case, models are sometimes not good at detecting development of tropical waves, since they are generally small scale features.
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Autumn! Cool, crisp, dry air after months of unrelenting heat. Beautiful changing leaves, nostalgic scents. I just love Autumn. :)


Autumn doesn't exist for those of us living in Louisiana. Insert 25 cents to try again. :)
Quoting BrazoriaMan:
Just looked at the clock and realized that at this time 4 years ago, I had already lost power from Ike. 13 days later the power came back, and I had a new appreciation for electricity.


I can vouch for that! Put me through all the hurricanes you wish, just let me keep my electricity!
Quoting KoritheMan:


Autumn doesn't exist for those of us living in Louisiana. Insert 25 cents to try again. :)


Sucks for you, doesn't it? haha
You should at least take a road trip north for a few days to see the leaves changing in hardwood forests. So beautiful. It's my favorite time of year. It was better in Wisconsin when I used to live there, than in Missouri, but it's still nice here too. :)
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Autumn! Cool, crisp, dry air after months of unrelenting heat. Beautiful changing leaves, nostalgic scents. I just love Autumn. :)


I want a wet Autumn and Winter. My house has resumed sinking after the drought from last year. I wouldnt mind half of Allison right now! But I do agree Autumn is nice. The only part of the year that bores me is February. Poor little February.
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Autumn! Cool, crisp, dry air after months of unrelenting heat. Beautiful changing leaves, nostalgic scents. I just love Autumn. :)

Don't forget the delicious pumpkin cheesecake that comes out seasonally at Cheesecake Factory during that time. Yum :)

Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Sucks for you, doesn't it? haha
I make a lot of enemies.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I can vouch for that! Put me through all the hurricanes you wish, just let me keep my electricity!


Amen to that! While it was neat(kinda like camping out), the heat and humidity stinks with no ac. We had a generator(thanks to Edouards bark and no bite), so it helped keep some of the basics going. Def grateful for that. I think the weirdest thing was walking outside, hearing no airplanes, no birds, just generators going.
Quoting lobdelse81:

Don't forget the delicious pumpkin cheesecake that comes out seasonally at Cheesecake Factory during that time. Yum :)


Pumpkin Cheesecake rocks! 2 slices please lol.
September 13, 2007 and 2008. Hurricane Humberto...and Ike.

Quoting Stormchaser121:
September 13, 2007 and 2008. Hurricane Humberto...and Ike.
Ooh, scary!
Quoting wxchaser97:

Isaac's impacts are still being felt and he will never soon be forgotten. The "only cat1" thing bugs me though, something needs to be done about that.


Ike is the exact reason they seperated Cat status and storm surge. So many people here were thinking" Oh it's just a Cat 2, weve been there done that no problem". Unfortunately some of those people never made it with the Cat 4 Storm surge Ike brought, God bless em. There isnt much you can do because people who have been through hurricanes think the next one will be the same. What they do not understand is that every storm is different, different trees/limbs fall, storm surges can be worse than before, and so on. Anyone along the coast needs to evac for a cat 1 in my opinion, unless they are in a safe enough building where possibility of harm is very low. But even then, if you can get out, just get out.
Afternoon all. 3:30pm here in Sydney, Australia.
I am in the process of putting together information on our up coming fire season which could be the most serious in 50 years. I will put it all in a blog. Once it's finished I will let everyone know.
Cheers
AussieStorm
Evening everyone
The big story in the global tropics is Typhoon Sanba. While it is officially analysed as a 105 MPH category 2 storm by the JTWC, this storm has the satellite presentation of a solid category 4 (per ADT and SAB dvorak techniques), though it likely has winds of a category 3 storm (under rapid intensification it takes a little bit for winds to catch up). Regardless, very impressive storm, and the Philippines are very fortunate this system will be moving off to the north. All conditions are favorable for intensification to continue (SSTs at 30c, ample TCHP, forward motion is fairly slow, but not too slow, no signs of dry air, no proximity to land, shear is light, and divergence is good in all quadrants thanks to radial outflow).

Anyone notice that Nadine is listed as having winds of 60 mph with gusts to 55?
The October 2004 issue of Scientific American has an article about "Controlling Hurricanes". It should work, but we really need a better understanding of them.

Quoting gippgig:
Anyone notice that Nadine is listed as having winds of 60 mph with gusts to 55?
The October 2004 issue of Scientific American has an article about "Controlling Hurricanes". It should work, but we really need a better understanding of them.
Not that I particularly buy into any of that nonsense, but I am rather curious now to see that article.

*scratches head*
2012SEP13 050100 5.9 932.4/ +2.6 /112.4 5.9 6.0 7.0 2.2T/6hr

945 hPa as of 12:00 PM JST JMA advisory. This ADT shows around 930 hPa.
On this day 24 years ago...

** WTPQ20 BABJ 130600 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY SANBA 1216 (1216) INITIAL TIME 130600 UTC
00HR 15.6N 129.6E 940HPA 50M/S (100 knots)

30KTS 300KM
50KTS 130KM
P12HR NNW 15KM/H
P+24HR 18.7N 128.7E 930HPA 55M/S
P+48HR 22.1N 127.5E 920HPA 60M/S (120 knots)
P+72HR 26.3N 126.1E 930HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 30.7N 125.3E 950HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 36.0N 124.9E 970HPA 35M/S=
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TYPHOON SANBA (T1216)
15:00 PM JST September 13 2012
======================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Sanba (930 hPa) located at 15.6N 129.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 18.8N 129.2E - 100 (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 22.2N 127.9E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 27.1N 126.7E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Okinawa Island Waters
WTPQ30 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TY 1216 SANBA (1216)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 130600 UTC IS GOOD.
TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NORTHWEST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
From this.....



to this.....






in 4 hrs.... WOW!!!!!
.............good morning folks,7-day forecast for the Tampa Bay area...notice the last 3 days on this..something is in central florida???
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
513 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-132115 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
513 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY METRO AND TO THE SOUTH. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
BREEZY EAST WINDS OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE WAVES OF UP TO 5
FEET...MOSTLY AWAY FROM SHORE. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
BREEZY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND
GRADUALLY DIE DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS MAY REACH CAUTIONARY
OR ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.
Quoting BrazoriaMan:
Ike is the exact reason they seperated Cat status and storm surge. So many people here were thinking" Oh it's just a Cat 2, weve been there done that no problem". Unfortunately some of those people never made it with the Cat 4 Storm surge Ike brought, God bless em. There isnt much you can do because people who have been through hurricanes think the next one will be the same. What they do not understand is that every storm is different, different trees/limbs fall, storm surges can be worse than before, and so on. Anyone along the coast needs to evac for a cat 1 in my opinion, unless they are in a safe enough building where possibility of harm is very low. But even then, if you can get out, just get out.
Or maybe it was Katrina...landfall as Cat 3 but with with record surges more like Cat 4 or 5 in many areas.

The forecasters predict storm surge values separate from storm intensity and have been doing that for a long time. It is the public that just thinks about the "Cat N" thing too simplistically, so the NHC should come up with a better way to communicate with the public, as we have seen with Katrina, Ike and now with Isaac, among others.
Sanba probably getting close to becoming a category 5 typhoon.
Good Morning everyone, Nadine looking good and Sanba is great.
Good morning, everyone. Remembering Ike here today, remembering everyone thinking how/why do we get two hurricanes less than two weeks apart.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Remembering Ike here today, remembering everyone thinking how/why do we get two hurricanes less than two weeks apart.

Good Morning, hurricane Ike was a very bad storm which I remember pretty well.
Sanba is looking really really healthy and hopefully she doesn't affect land as a strong typhoon.
Good morning. What an absolutely perfect storm:



There's a very good chance this will become a Cat 5.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2012 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 16:01:10 N Lon : 129:32:29 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 927.0mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : 18.2C Cloud Region Temp : -77.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Listed currently at 115kts by JTWC, which is probably way low.
If you watch satellite loops right now, Sanba is moving NE, not what the forecast suggests:

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. What an absolutely perfect storm:



There's a very good chance this will become a Cat 5.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2012 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 16:01:10 N Lon : 129:32:29 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 927.0mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : 18.2C Cloud Region Temp : -77.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Listed currently at 115kts by JTWC, which is probably way low.

This storm is probably nearing cat5 soon as everything says it looks so good and is very strong, good morning MA.
Sanba, likely just took a jog to the Northeast, as it doesn't seem to be a continuous motion to the northeast, next few images will likely confirm if this is a wobble or a true motion.
Recent microwave pass of Nadine.
Quoting Ameister12:
Sanba probably getting close to becoming a category 5 typhoon.


unbelievable
yellow on s.florida leftover of i storm?
Quoting islander101010:
yellow on s.florida leftover of i storm?

No its not, just a surface trough.
Quoting islander101010:
yellow on s.florida leftover of i storm?

From tropical discussion:

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA INTO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N E OF 88W TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
Good morning. I dont see the overnight models posted so I assume that they dont develop anything.
633. beell
Quoting KoritheMan:


Is there ever a silver lining to weather?


Sure there is. You just won't find much of it on the internets or the TV.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. I dont see the overnight models posted so I assume that they dont develop anything.

The 00z GFS does develop another cv storm and the 6z gets a couple of weak systems going.
I wish Nadine:


Was like Sanba and still going out to sea:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Nadine looks terrible...
things can happen quick near s fl. this time of yr area is becoming interesting
Sanba is probably a Category 5 typhoon.

TXPQ24 KNES 130935
TCSWNP

A. 17W (SANBA)

B. 13/0832Z

C. 15.9N

D. 129.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CURRENT DT IS 7.0 BASED ON WARM MEDIUM GRAY EYE WITH A
WHITE RING EMBEDDED IN WHITE. AVERAGE DT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OF 6.7
ALLOWS FOR CURRENT FT OF 6.5 TO BREAK THE RULE LIMITING THE INCREASE OF
THE FT TO BE 2.5 IN 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTESIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LIDDICK






Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sanba is probably a Category 5 typhoon.


No doubt about it, look at how beautiful Sanba looks.
Everyone have a wonderful Thursday!
nhc says this 1. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING AN ELONGATED AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.
If this isn't a strong cat4-cat5 then I don't know what is. Movement looks to be steady to the NE, have a great day aislinnpaps.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2012 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 16:08:58 N Lon : 129:37:14 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 921.9mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +17.7C Cloud Region Temp : -77.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 101km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.9 degrees
Good morning. Now I know why my favorite station is hit or miss.


"Forecast cloudy for Sand Key weather station".

Ladder damaged; weather station may be moved

BY JOHN DeSANTIS Citizen Staff
jdesantis@keysnews.com

A malfunctioning weather station that mariners say is essential to safety on local waters may require a location change, and further delay before it can be reliably operated.

The weather equipment is located at Sand Key Light, which lies on a reef about 6 miles southwest of Key West.

As a component of NOAA's National Data Buoy Center, it transmits detailed information about wind, rain and other weather issues that are accessible on a government website.

Mariners began complaining in early August that the system was either not working or only working intermittently.

"Every time before we handle a vessel we visit that site to see what the weather is, the wind speed, conditions and directions before we make a decision whether we move a ship," said Bob Maguire of the Key West Bar Pilots Association, whose members move big tankers, cruise ships and other vessels through and into Key West Harbor. "Most days I can look out the window of my house but if it is a borderline situation such as tankers, a lot more information is needed."

The bar pilots will not move tankers if the wind at Sand Key is more than 25 knots, or 28.7 mph, in accordance with their regulations.

Maguire wrote to the National Buoy Data Center Aug. 6 reporting a problem with the light, officially called SANF1.

"When Tropical Storm Debby was in our area at the end of June 2012, we had five days in a row of overcast, rain and wind. SANF1 failed each evening and did not start transmitting again until hours after daylight," Maguire's letter states. "When those conditions are present, that is when we need accurate information the most. The local maritime community depends on SANF1 for information on the current conditions at the reef."

The problem, according to Jon Rizzo, warning coordinator at the National Weather Service's Key West forecast office, "has to do with the batteries on board."

"The instruments are solar powered and when the batteries get old they cannot hold their charges and it takes longer for them to charge," Rizzo said. "You can have data sometimes from noon on a sunny day to about 7 p.m."

Rizzo agrees with mariners that the data collected and transmitted by the Sand Key station is vital.

"The most important would be warning verification," Rizzo said. "If we have a strong thunderstorm with gale force winds in a limited area, that station there is extremely important. If you get verification it helps areas that are downwind."

The nation's buoy program has been subject to budget cuts, and further cuts to educational institutions that have helped maintain the weather stations haven't helped.

Although there has been talk of the program's near-elimination in some places, NOAA officials have said there are no plans to dismantle or decommission the stations serving the Keys.

The Sand Key light, said officials at the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi where the program is headquartered, will be placed on a priority list for repair. But they needed to enlist help from the Coast Guard, which owns the tower.

Steven Cucullu, program manager at Stennis, said the ladder used to access the tower, which technicians would have to climb, was deemed unsafe. The Coast Guard was asked to replace or repair the ladder.

A preliminary assessment was done, according to Jeff Hunter, chief of the Key West area Aids To Navigation division of the Coast Guard, and the news is not good.

Hunter said the ladder was in a state of complete disrepair and that a dock used to access the tower is dangerously damaged.

"We may just remove that weather equipment and put it elsewhere nearby," Hunter said.

The light's beacon is still functioning, Hunter said, and whether the state of the structure will allow for it to be serviced in the future will have to be determined by later assessments.

Until then the only reliable local data comes from Sombrero Light in Marathon. But for Maguire and other mariners that's too far. He expressed gratitude to the Coast Guard for looking into the matter so quickly after they were notified by NOAA. If the weather equipment must be moved, Maguire said, he is certain the Coast Guard will find a spot close enough to Sand Key.

"It's like a tool bag," Maguire said. "You can get your weather from the airport, from Boca Chica, from a weather station or Weather Underground. There are other light towers farther up the Keys. But you want to use the best tool you have in your kit and right now that is Sand Key Light."
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2012 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 16:08:58 N Lon : 129:37:14 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 921.9mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +17.7C Cloud Region Temp : -77.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 101km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.9 degrees


amazing...yes 140kt makes a cat 5...I wish those were in the Atlantic...but harmless
Gotta a little spin still moving along to the West below us.

Link
Quoting wxchaser97:
If this isn't a strong cat4-cat5 then I don't know what is. Movement looks to be steady to the NE, have a great day aislinnpaps.


Check out how big Sanba is. It's huge...

....BLOB MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE GULF
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Gotta a little spin still moving along to the West below us.

Link
Yes, I see. I just viewed a water vapor loop of the GOM, and it looks interesting.....vapor extending to the north towards Naples....wonder if this will grow and concern the WC FL coast. Have a good day in the Keys!
gfs at 96 hours...........
653. SLU
Doesn't get much better than this ...

Nam at 72 hours...hmmm wonder why the gfs doesnt show it..
Nam at 84 hours............
T-numbers are still climbing!

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 915.9mb/146.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.4 7.4

Today is Humberto-Ike day in southeast Texas. Check out Humberto here and Ike. Lots of links/info on those pages. I especially like the Humberto radar animations. For other links on major weather events in southeast Texas check here.

Edit: Ike link not showing up. Not awake enough to figure out the html.
Wow.


13/0832 UTC 15.9N 129.6E T6.5/6.5 SANBA -- West Pacific



Only one storm has reached the absolute top of the Dvorak technique scale (T8.0/170 kt) and her name was Monica.

2006APR23 193300 8.0 868.6/ +10.6 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 15.99 -80.64 EYE/C 22 IR -11.32 -135.55 COMBO
2006APR23 203300 8.0 868.5/ +10.5 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 15.01 -81.99 EYE/C 18 IR -11.42 -135.42 COMBO
2006APR23 213300 8.0 868.6/ +10.6 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 8.83 -83.08 EYE/C 17 IR -11.33 -135.28 COMBO
2006APR23 223300 8.0 868.6/ +10.6 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 17.81 -82.66 EYE/C 18 IR -11.33 -135.25 COMBO
2006APR24 000000 8.0 868.5/ +10.5 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 19.81 -81.22 EYE/C 17 IR -11.45 -135.05 COMBO
2006APR24 003300 8.0 868.5/ +10.5 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 9.75 -80.54 EYE/C 20 IR -11.46 -135.07 COMBO

Boring times arrives so quicky.Nothing in the Atlantic to watch.except a bad looking fish.
always hate to see comment 666 so i will make it 667. very cool in wilmington nc this morning. sweater weather

well ok 668
First big split on Nadine. Some models now moving her more NW than the sharp curve to the NE.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Only one storm has reached the absolute top of the Dvorak technique scale (T8.0/170 kt) and her name was Monica.

2006APR23 193300 8.0 868.6/ +10.6 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 15.99 -80.64 EYE/C 22 IR -11.32 -135.55 COMBO
2006APR23 203300 8.0 868.5/ +10.5 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 15.01 -81.99 EYE/C 18 IR -11.42 -135.42 COMBO
2006APR23 213300 8.0 868.6/ +10.6 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 8.83 -83.08 EYE/C 17 IR -11.33 -135.28 COMBO
2006APR23 223300 8.0 868.6/ +10.6 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 17.81 -82.66 EYE/C 18 IR -11.33 -135.25 COMBO
2006APR24 000000 8.0 868.5/ +10.5 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 19.81 -81.22 EYE/C 17 IR -11.45 -135.05 COMBO
2006APR24 003300 8.0 868.5/ +10.5 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 9.75 -80.54 EYE/C 20 IR -11.46 -135.07 COMBO


That looks like that was one powerful storm, I think Sanba could get close to the limit if not hit it.
Assuming a super typhoon soon

Quoting weatherh98:
Assuming a super typhoon soon


Good morning Wh98, its got to be a cat5.
Total and complete wow.

Quoting Grothar:
First big split on Nadine. Some models now moving her more NW than the sharp curve to the NE.



Not gonna lie gro, that's one of the biggest doom model cone ive ever seen....
Quoting wxchaser97:

Good morning Wh98, its got to be a cat5.


Morning Isaac.

I'd have to agree

Rapid Intensification for real
Good Morning. Reviewing this season so far, we cannot just look at the lack of a major impacting the Caribbean or US on the Atlantic end. Looking across the board at the numbers on the Atlantic side and on the Pacific side (both E-Pac and W-Pac), this is has been one of the most active seasons for both basins that I have seen in a long time. Not surprising on the Pacific side because of the warmer temps due to the marginal El Nino but quite surprising numbers wise on the Atlantic side as well......Very high numbers across the board this year.
Quoting yqt1001:
Total and complete wow.


Wow= somewhere between ouch boing. Sanba is a perfect storm to watch, hopefully it doesn't hit land as this.
A. TYPHOON 17W (SANBA)

B. 13/1132Z

C. 16.3N

D. 129.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURR BY CMG YIELDED A
7.5 DT. MET INDICATES 7.0. PT INDICATES 6.5. DBO MET DUE TO 6
HOURLY CONSTRAINTS. 24 HOURLY CONSTRAINTS WERE BROKEN DUE TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

Wow, JTWC's dvorak came back with 7.0 (140kts, 160mph) but had to be lowered to 6.5 (125kts, 145mph) due to 24 hourly constraints. No doubt going to be an upper-end category 4 at the next update and if it holds current structure category 5 after that.
At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sanba (992 hPa)

---------

24 hours later..

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Sanba (915 hPa)

-----------

that is quite a drop in pressure.
Sanba. My Lady.

Why is Sanba moving northeast? Is this just a temporary jog or did her increase in intensity cause her to adjust to a different steering layer than forecasted?
Incredible
Quoting wxchaser97:
I wish Nadine:


Was like Sanba and still going out to sea:

I don't.

Guess who would eventually get her?

Keep those Monsters out there.
Quoting weatherh98:


Morning Isaac.

I'd have to agree

Rapid Intensification for real

Yup Harrison, that's one strong storm the wpac got on their hands.
Have a great day everyone, I got to go to school. Here is my blog for those who didn't see it.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Why is Sanba moving northeast? Is this just a temporary jog or did her increase in intensity cause her to adjust to a different steering layer than forecasted?

When storms undergo RI, they intensify so fast that it propels the entire system to appear to make a jog or wobble in a different direction.

There is no NE movement.
Quoting weatherh98:
Incredible



Looks like she is about to return to her North-northwest track. Storm looks annular.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST September 13 2012
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 37.2N 144.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 7 knots.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Looks like she is about to return to her North-northwest track. Storm looks annular.


We would need another EWRC.
Off to school bye
keys disturbance could get a invest number this afternoon
Look at that S type wave emerging West Africa.

Looking at a small area of disturbed weather east of Trinidad near 10n 35 w and moving west. this area is in the monsoon trough, with dry air to it's west and north which is limiting the amount of convection. Although the area looks insignicant at this time,there is good vorticity at the 850mb ,750mb.and 500mb lvels. wind shear is in the 5-10 knots range and the forecast is for it to remain so the next 72 hrs.The system does not have a look of something imminent , but conditions are there for something to spin up unexpectantly. The area is still over 1200miles away which gives enough time to monitor the situation.
Guchol:


Sanba:


DAY 5-6...GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
SOLUTIONS IS THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS SUCH AS DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION
AND TIMING PERSIST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIR WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER
THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS MONDAY /DAY 5/. AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...WITH THREAT CONTINUING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES DAY 6
. AT THIS TIME TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH
AND EXTENT OF CLOUDS/DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IN WARM SECTORS...BUT
THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK
IN LATER OUTLOOKS.


..DIAL.. 09/13/2012


This could be another round of severe weather for the Ohio Valley/NE usa and possibly down to the mid atlantic...unfortunately the SE US is too far south of hte trough for anything major this time, but will still see a cold front.

In both this trough and the next one, shear is lackluster, but the polar and subtropical jets do phase togehter.
The next big trough is in 10-15 days and is expected to be larger than this one, although its possible effects are not known yet. It is currnetly over towards alaska and russia extending south into the pacific.
I'm waiting for shear and dry air to tear the system apart.The system is headed for land for pete sake!.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm waiting for shear and dry air to tear the system apart.The system is headed for land for pete sake!.

This is not the Atlantic Basin. And there is no seeding efforts going on. No chance.
UW-CIMSS is spitting out a CI of 7.2 - that's a 146kt storm, with a central pressure of 915.9. And the raw numbers are higher. JMA puts the current pressure at 910MB, although its more conservative methodology of using 10-minute winds puts them at only 105kts.

It's just a crazy storm.
Nadine still at 60kts on 12z Best Track.

AL, 14, 2012091312, , BEST, 0, 220N, 517W, 60, 990, TS
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Poor Korea if that track verifies.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

This is not the Atlantic Basin. And there is no seeding efforts going on. No chance.
I know this isn't the Atlantic :).It's just that I'm waiting for the natural enemies of T.C's to do their work on Sanba.People are in the path.Be different if it was swirling out in the pacific minding it's business then I wouldn't mind it being this strong.
Sanba's RI has been mindblowing. I didn't check on here, as I thought it'd be 24hrs plus to organise..and then I casually look to see what's happening and I'm completely shocked! Classic September Philippines region RI. A serious storm, indeed. I think we could see her peak at 180mph at this rate. Plenty of energy ahead, and plenty of time to go through several EWRCs.

I don't understand how some people only focus on the atlantic when this is happening!
Typhoon Tip part 2?????
Quoting sunshineandshowers:
Sanba's RI has been mindblowing. I didn't check on here, as I thought it'd be 24hrs plus to organise..and then I casually look to see what's happening and I'm completely shocked! Classic September Philippines region RI. A serious storm, indeed. I think we could see her peak at 180mph at this rate. Plenty of energy ahead, and plenty of time to go through several EWRCs.

I don't understand how some people only focus on the atlantic when this is happening!

It's insane. I know. These folks are just salivating at this wishing hoping and praying - clinging on to any hope that if only the Atlantic could see this....

Not happening...
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TYPHOON SANBA (T1216)
21:00 PM JST September 13 2012
======================================

SUBJECT: Category Five Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Sanba (910 hPa) located at 16.3N 129.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 19.7N 128.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 23.6N 127.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 29.3N 126.4E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East China Sea
Is it a shame that some of my co-workers want Sanba to hit Korea head on as a super typhoon?.It's sickening.


NADINE BEING SCREWED!
709. beell
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


IT STILL APPEARS THAT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIR WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR


..DIAL.. 09/13/2012


This could be another round of severe weather for the Ohio Valley/NE usa and possibly down to the mid atlantic...unfortunately the SE US is too far south of hte trough for anything major this time, but will still see a cold front.

In both this trough and the next one, shear is lackluster, but the polar and subtropical jets do phase togehter.
The next big trough is in 10-15 days and is expected to be larger than this one, although its possible effects are not known yet. It is currnetly over towards alaska and russia extending south into the pacific.


Probably the determinant factor-as low level ridging may block returns.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

It's insane. I know. These folks are just salivating at this wishing hoping and praying - clinging on to any hope that if only the Atlantic could see this....

Not happening...


if that happened i think the site would crash! obviously a storm like this near land is not good news. Okinawa and S.Korea and Kyushu need to prepare, they had a good drill with Bolaven. But for the short-term, no-one is in danger, and we can all take in the awesome beauty of these systems. To get to 910hPa in the WPac, so quickly, is remarkable.

I suspect the storm will decay faster than forecast. This year, the JTWC seems to have over-egged the staying power of the storms.

It won't be typhoon tip as it's far, far smaller, but def looks to be one of the strongest storms of the last 5 years.
GFS develops another fish. That's the year of fishes
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Typhoon Tip part 2?????
At the moment, CIMSS puts Sanba's 34 kt wind radii at 100km, and the JTWC puts them at 180-200km. At its peak, Tip had wind radii of 1100km - five to ten times as much as Sanba. But that's just radii. The more accurate way to say the same thing is that if you were to place Sanba on top of Tip, using the most generous estimates being put out right now, it would cover 3.5% of that storm's area.

And that's without comparing central pressures, windspeeds, or other indicae of intensity.

So let's not hyperventilate here. Sanba is a beautiful, intense tropical cyclone - and will quite likely be the strongest storm of the year in any ocean. Isn't that enough on its own?
Nice wave coming off of Africa.Do models develop it?.
Of course yes.....

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE EAST ONCE NADINE HAS MOVED NORTH
OUT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EVEN STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE AREA BY
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.


AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER COLOMBIA AND THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA. THE GFS IS SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM
WILL FORM IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOVE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE TRACK OF NADINE.
Quoting CloudGatherer:
At the moment, CIMSS puts Sanba's 34 kt wind radii at 100km, and the JTWC puts them at 180-200km. At its peak, Tip had wind radii of 1100km - five to ten times as much as Sanba. But that's just radii. The more accurate way to say the same thing is that if you were to place Sanba on top of Tip, using the most generous estimates being put out right now, it would cover 3.5% of that storm's area.

And that's without comparing central pressures, windspeeds, or other indicae of intensity.

So let's not hyperventilate here. Sanba is a beautiful, intense tropical cyclone - and will quite likely be the strongest storm of the year in any ocean. Isn't that enough on its own?

Absolutely. More than enough.

Thanks for your input.
Quoting sunshineandshowers:


if that happened i think the site would crash! obviously a storm like this near land is not good news. Okinawa and S.Korea and Kyushu need to prepare, they had a good drill with Bolaven. But for the short-term, no-one is in danger, and we can all take in the awesome beauty of these systems. To get to 910hPa in the WPac, so quickly, is remarkable.

I suspect the storm will decay faster than forecast. This year, the JTWC seems to have over-egged the staying power of the storms.

It won't be typhoon tip as it's far, far smaller, but def looks to be one of the strongest storms of the last 5 years.

Thanks. It will probably exceed Megi of 2010.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Thanks. It will probably exceed Megi of 2010.


Megi central pressure was a 885 hPa (reference)
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2012 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 16:24:34 N Lon : 129:34:33 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 912.8mb/149.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.3 7.5 7.5


Wow. Just, wow. CIMSS is still registering an intensifying cyclone. The raw and adjusted T#s are now up to 7.5 - that'd be a 155kt cyclone. Even the current intensity estimate, now edging up to 149kts, is stunning. This is a Category 5 storm - no ifs, ands, or buts about it.
Took a good jog NE.

Quoting SFLWeatherman:


I Like what you posted here. Decent steady but not too intense rains spread over a lot of the dry areas over a five day period. Exactly the kind of pattern that will help the drought areas.
By next week we will be watching 92L or Oscar(East coast low), and we will have another Tropical wave form, Patty.

That's 4 storms halfway through September. And that would put us only 3 storms away from 19 named storms which is the Hyper-active season- Threshold, and we would be 5 named storms from Exhausting the naming list.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
New Drought Monitor out for this week. And what do you know still depressing.

Sun setting on Sanba. Click pic for loop. Might see 8 before sunrise.
I have just finished my forecast blog on the 2012/13 Australian Bush Fire season. Feel free to have a read and leave a comment if you'd like.

Cheers
AussieStorm