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Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:55 PM GMT on December 14, 2011

With one of the wildest weather years in U.S. history drawing to a close, it's time to look back at some of this year's unprecedented onslaught of billion-dollar weather disasters--and the lessons we should have learned. One of these disasters was the approximately $1 billion in damage due to flooding from Tropical Storm Lee, which brought torrential rains along a swath from Louisiana to New York in early September. Among the hardest hit cities was Binghamton, New York (population 47,000), where record rains due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee on September 8 brought a 1-in-200 to 1-in-500 year flood to the city's Susquehanna River. A flood 8.5 inches higher than the city's flood walls spilled over into the city that day, damaging or destroying over 7,300 buildings in Greater Binghamton, and causing hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. Damage to Binghamton's sewage treatment plant and city infrastructure alone are estimated at $26 million. Damage to one elementary school is estimated at $11 - 19 million. The total damage to the county Binghamton lies in (Broome) and the downstream Tioga County is estimated at $1 billion. I argue that there is strong evidence that the extra moisture that global warming has added to the atmosphere over the past 40 years could have been "the straw that broke the camel's back" which allowed Binghamton's flood walls to be overtopped, causing tens of millions in damages. Had this event occurred 40 years ago, before global warming added an extra 4% moisture to the atmosphere, the Susquehanna flood would have likely stayed within the city's flood walls.


Figure 1. Front Street Bridge on the Susquehanna River in Vestal, NY, immediately following the flood of September 8, 2011. Image credit: USGS, New York.


Figure 2. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton crested on September 8, 2011, at the highest flood height on record, 25.71'. The previous record flood was 25', set June 28, 2006. Flood records in Binghamton go back to 1846. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 3. Damage survey of Binghamton, New York after rains from the remains of Tropical Storm Lee sent the Susquehanna River over the city's flood walls on September 8, 2011. Image credit: City of Binghamton.

Binghamton's 2nd 1-in-200-year+ flood in five years
This year's flood is the second 1-in-200 to 1-in-500 year flood in the past five years to hit Binghamton. On June 26 - 29, 2006, tropical moisture streaming northwards over a front stalled out over New York state brought over thirteen inches of rain to portions of southern New York. The Susquehanna River swelled to record levels, triggering devastating flooding that cost at least $227 million. In Binghamton, the Susquehanna River crested eleven feet over flood stage, the greatest flood since records began in 1846. The flood walls protecting Binghamton were overtopped by a few inches, allowing water to pour into the city and cause tens of millions of dollars in damage. This flood is another example of a case where global warming may have been "the straw that broke the camel's back", allowing the flood walls to be overtopped by a few inches. While it is not impossible that the 2006 flood and the 2011 flood could have occurred naturally so close together in time, such a rare double flood has been made more likely by the extra moisture added to the atmosphere due to global warming.


Figure 4. Susquehanna River floodwaters overtop a flood wall along North Shore Drive, Binghamton, NY, on June 28, 2006. Photo courtesy of Alan A. Katz, and available in the USGS report, Flood of June 26 - 29, 2006, Mohawk, Delaware, and Susquehanna River Basins, New York.

The 2011 Tropical Storm Lee flood event on the Susquehanna: a convergence of rare events
Near-record rains fell over much of New York, Pennsylvania, and surrounding states during the first four weeks of August 2011, thanks to an active weather pattern that brought numerous thunderstorms. By August 27, Binghamton, New York had already received nearly double its normal total of 3.45" of rain for the month. When Hurricane Irene swept northwards along the mid-Atlantic coast on August 28, the storm dumped record rains that triggered billions of dollars in flood damage. The Susquehanna River Valley and Binghamton were spared the heaviest of Irene's rains and suffered only minor flooding, but the region received 3 - 5 inches of rain, saturating the soils. The 2.72 inches of rain that fell on Binghamton brought the total rainfall for August 2011 to 8.90", making it the rainiest August in city history (weather records go back to 1890.) Irene's rains helped give New York, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Vermont their wettest Augusts since record keeping began in 1895.


Figure 5. Rainfall amounts from Hurricane Irene ranged from 3 - 5 inches over Binghamton and the Susquehanna River Valley upstream (northeast) of the city. Image credit: David Roth, NOAA/HPC.


Figure 6. Rainfall amounts from Hurricane Lee ranged from 5 - 10 inches over Binghamton and the Susquehanna River Valley upstream (northeast) of the city. Image credit: David Roth, NOAA/HPC.

Irene set the stage for what was to become the greatest flood in recorded history on the Susquehanna River. On September 5, a front stalled out over Pennsylvania and New York. Tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Tropical Storm Lee was lifted up over the front, and heavy downpours resulted. The rains continued for four days, and were amplified by the arrival of Tropical Storm Lee's remnants on September 7, plus a stream of moisture emanating from far-away Hurricane Katia, 1,000 miles to the south-southeast. Binghamton, New York received 8.70" of rain in 24 hours September 7 - 8, the greatest 24-hour rainfall in city history. This was nearly double the city's previous all-time record (4.68" on Sep 30 - Oct. 1, 2010.) The record rains falling on soils still saturated from Hurricane Irene's rains ran off rapidly into the Susquehanna River, which rose an astonishing twenty feet in just 24 hours. By noon on September 8, the rampaging Susquehanna River crested in Binghamton at 25.71', the highest level since records began in 1846. The river would have risen higher had the city's flood walls been higher, but since the water was overtopping the flood walls and spreading out over the city, the river was limited to how high it could rise. By month's end, precipitation in Binghamton for September 2011 totaled 16.58", more than thirteen inches above normal, making it Binghamton's wettest month since records began in 1890.

We can thus see how the record Susquehanna River flood of September 8, 2011 was due to a convergence of rare events, which included moisture from three tropical cyclones:

1) The unusually heavy rains during the first four weeks of August, before the arrival of Hurricane Irene.

2) Hurricane Irene's 3 - 5 inches of rain.

3) The extreme rains from Tropical Storm Lee's remnants.

4) The enhanced rainfall on September 7 - 8 due to a moisture plume from Hurricane Katia.

Had any one of these events not occurred, it is questionable whether the flood walls in Binghamton would have been overtopped. One could also argue that the flood walls would not have been overtopped had there been less development in the Susquehanna's floodplain. Dr. Peter Knuepfer, Associate Professor of Geology and director of the Environmental Studies Program at Binghamton University, and Dr. Burrell Montz, who is now Professor and Chair of Geography at East Carolina University, wrote in a 2007 essay titled, Flooding and Watershed Management, "the 2006 flood might be considered a land use flood, due to the levels of development in floodplains in Conklin and elsewhere in the Binghamton area." They argued that development on the Susquehanna's floodplain has been driven by economics, without enough thought to how development increases flood heights downstream. "It can hardly be argued that we need to reacquaint the river with its floodplain," they concluded. In an email I received from Dr. Knuepfer, he indicated that some positive steps have been taken to reduce flood vulnerability in the Binghamton area before this year's flood: "There's still more development in the floodplain than should be, though there is a little more awareness (but only a little!) about the downstream implications of raising levees and walls (and certainly this seems to be true at the Federal level). From Binghamton downstream--the Susquehanna River had a 200+ year flood (the number one chooses depends on how one treats the historic flood record, but it was clearly an event well beyond the historical record.) Some areas flooded by the river in 2006--houses, specifically--no longer exist due to FEMA buy-outs. Yet there is still development in flood-prone areas, so there is still a degree of floodplain development that contributes significantly to the disaster. On the other hand, this flood overtopped levees and flood walls precisely because it was a bigger natural event than these were designed to withstand. So there's still more exposure than I'd like to see, but this was a natural disaster." To illustrate how development in a flood plain can increase flood height, consider this stat from nrdc.org: a 1-inch rainstorm falling on a 1-acre natural meadow produces about 28 bathtubs full of runoff into local rivers. However, a 1-inch rainstorm falling on a 1-acre parking lot produces sixteen times as much runoff--448 bathtubs full. We obviously can't convert our parking lots into meadows, but we can create permeable pavement, planted swales around parking lots, rain gardens planted along sidewalks, green roofs, and more trees to help absorb rainwater like a sponge. The city of Philadelphia has recently started an ambitious effort to reduce flood through such green infrastructure efforts.


Figure 7. Water vapor satellite image taken at 2:45 pm EDT September 7, 2011, during the height of the heavy rainstorm affecting the Susquehanna River Valley near Binghamton, NY. Moisture came from the remains of Tropical Storm Lee, tropical moisture streaming northwards and lifting over a stalled front, and from Hurricane Katia, located 1,000 miles to the south-southeast, between Florida and Bermuda. White and blue colors show where copious atmospheric moisture lies, while brown colors show dry air. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The global warming connection
Finally, I'll add one more "straw that broke the camel's back" that contributed to the overtopping of the flood walls in Binghamton: global warming. Had the flood of September 8, 2011 occurred in the atmosphere of the 1970s or earlier, the flood walls would have been less likely to be overtopped. There is a well-established relationship in atmospheric physics called the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, which says that atmospheric moisture will increase by 6% - 7% for every degree Centigrade increase in Earth's temperature. Global sea surface temperatures in the regions where hurricanes form, between 30°S and 30°N latitude, warmed 0.9°F (0.5°C) between 1970 - 2004, due to global warming (Trenberth et. al, 2007.) Satellite observations show that atmospheric moisture over the oceans increased by 1.3% per decade between 1988 - 2003 (Trenberth, 2006), so we can expect that the amount of moisture storms have to work with has increased by 4% since 1970 and 5% since 1900 (IPCC, 2007.) The amount of rainfall a hurricane can now drop as a result of this increase in moisture can be much more than 4 - 5%, though. The extra moisture in the atmosphere helps intensify storms by releasing "latent heat" energy when it condenses into rain. Latent heat is the extra energy that is required to convert liquid water to gaseous water vapor, and this energy is liberated when the vapor condenses back to rain. The released latent heat energy invigorates the updrafts in a storm, allowing it to draw in moisture from an area greater than usual (a typical storm draws in moisture from an area 3 - 5 times the radius of the precipitating region, according to Trenberth et.al, 2003.) This effect is thought to be the main reason why heavy precipitation events--the ones most likely to cause floods--have been increasing over the past 50 years, in general agreement with the predictions of climate models (Figure 8.) A 2008 study in the Netherlands by Lenderink and Meijgaard called "Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes," found that "one-hour precipitation extremes increase twice as fast with rising temperatures as expected from the Clausius–Clapeyron relation when daily mean temperatures exceed 12°C. In addition, simulations with a high-resolution regional climate model show that one-hour precipitation extremes increase at a rate close to 14% per degree of warming in large parts of Europe." A 2007 study led by Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, "Water and energy budgets of hurricanes: Case studies of Ivan and Katrina", looked at how much additional rainfall hurricanes might be dropping as a result of global warming. The researchers found that global warming likely increased the amount of rain dropped Hurricane Ivan and Hurricane Katrina by 6 - 8%. The authors wrote, "We conclude that the environmental changes related to human influences on climate have very likely changed the odds in favor of heavier rainfalls and here we suggest that this can be quantified to date to be of order 6 to 8% since 1970. It probably also results in more intense storms. The key point is that the value is not negligible, and nor is it large enough to dominate over the natural processes already in place. In the case of Katrina and New Orleans, where rainfalls locally exceeded 12 inches (305 mm), this would mean an enhancement of about 0.75 to 1 inch (19 to 25 mm). Although incremental, such changes can cause thresholds to be exceeded (the straw that breaks the camel's back.) Small differences of a few percent in rainfall can matter a great deal when that extra water is concentrated by a river drainage system to create a flood. For example, observations of flooding events in the Pennsylvania's 7.2 square km Mahantango Creek watershed (Troch et al., 1993) showed one case where two rainfall events with the same maximum precipitation rate generated flow rates in the creek a factor of seven different, even though the difference in total precipitation between the two events was about a factor of two. A modeling study by Jha et al. (2004) predicted that climate change would cause a 21% annual increase in precipitation over the Upper Mississippi River basin by 2040. However, their model predicted that streamflow would increase much more than this--51%. This occurred as a result of rain falling on saturated soils, which creates disproportionately large runoff. Much of the rain falling on dry soils takes time to infilrate the soil, and the arrival of this water into a river is delayed. But if soils are saturated, a greater percentage of the rain runs off immediately into the river, resulting in higher stream flows and higher flood potential. The largest increases in streamflow in their model occurred in spring and summer, when flood danger is at its highest.


Figure 8. Percent increase in the amount falling in heavy precipitation events (defined as the heaviest 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to 2007, for each region of the U.S. There are clear trends toward more very heavy precipitation events for the nation as a whole, and particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. Climate models predict that precipitation will increasingly fall in very heavy events in coming decades. Image credit: United States Global Change Research Program. Figure updated from Groisman, P.Ya., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004: Contemporary changes of the hydro-logical cycle over the contiguous United States, trends derived from in situ observations. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 5(1), 64-85.

Conclusion
There is strong evidence that the extra moisture that global warming has added to the atmosphere over the past 40 years could have been "the straw that broke the camel's back" in the case of the Susquehanna River floods of June 2006 and September 8, 2011, which overtopped the flood walls in Binghamton, New York, causing tens of millions of dollars in damages. During September 8, 2011 flood, the Susquehanna River rose twenty feet in 24 hours and topped the flood walls in Binghamton by 8.5 inches, so just a 6% reduction in the flood height would have led to no overtopping of the flood walls and a huge decrease in damage. Extra moisture in the air due to global warming could have easily contributed this 6% of extra flood height. It is possible that detailed computer modeling studies of the event may conclude that global warming was not a significant factor in this particular case, but we will see an increasing number of these back-breaking extreme flooding events in the future as the climate continues to warm and we increasingly load the dice in favor of greater extreme rainfall events. It is wildly improbable that two 1-in-200 to 1-in-500 year floods could have occurred on the same river within five years of each other naturally. Increased moisture in the atmosphere due to global warming and increased flood plain development are shifting the odds in favor of more extreme floods occurring more often. Our flood control system, which is designed for the climate of the 20th century and a lesser degree of flood plain development, is bound to be increasingly overwhelmed if we continue to put more structures into flood plains and continue to pump more heat-trapping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Unfortunately, we are not dealing well with the "new normal" for extreme floods. The National Flood Insurance Program, which charges unrealistically low insurance premiums, is $18 billion in debt. A government shut-down was narrowly avoided in September over disputes on how to pay for the damages from this year's 1-in-100 to 1-in-500 year floods on the Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Souris, Susquehanna, and hundreds of smaller rivers. Federal funding to operate 321 USGS stream gauges critical for issuing accurate and timely flood warnings was eliminated this year, and funding for an additional 69 gauges is threatened, including gauges on the Susquehanna River where this year's extreme flooding occurred. Eliminating funding for stream gauges in an era of increasing floods is like being too cheap to replace your cracked windshield that's hard to see out of, when you're about to drive the most difficult and dangerous road your car has ever attempted, at night, in a heavy rainstorm. You'll be unaware of the coming danger until it's too late to avoid it. Flood damages are going to grow much worse and potentially cause serious harm to the American economy in the coming decades, and our politicians need to adopt intelligent policies that don't cater to special interests in order to deal with the increasingly frequent and larger extreme floods that a warmer climate will bring.

References
IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Jha, M., Z. Pan, E. S. Takle, and R. Gu (2004), Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin: A regional climate model perspective, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D09105, doi:10.1029/2003JD003686.

Lenderink, G., and E. van Meijgaard (2008), Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes,, Nature Geoscience 1, 511 - 514 (2008)
Published online: 20 July 2008 | doi:10.1038/ngeo262

Suro, T.P., G.D. Firda, and C.O. Szabo, 2009, Flood of June 26 - 29, 2006, Mohawk, Delaware, and Susquehanna River Basins, New York, USGS Open-File Report 2009-94-1063.

Trenberth, K. E., A. Dai, R. M. Rasmussen and D. B. Parsons, 2003: The changing character of precipitation", Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1205-1217.

Trenberth, K. E., C. A. Davis and J. Fasullo, 2007: "Water and energy budgets of hurricanes: Case studies of Ivan and Katrina," J. Geophys. Res., 112, D23106, doi:10.1029/2006JD008303.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith. 2005. "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor," Climate Dynamics 24:741-758.

Trenberth, K. E., 2011: Changes in precipitation with climate change. Climate Research, 47, 123-138,
doi:10.3354/cr00953.

Troch, P.A., J.A. Smith, E.F. Wood, and F.P. de Troch, "Hydrologic Controls of Large Floods in a Small Basin: Central Appalachian Case Study", Journal of Hydrology, 156:285-309, 1994.

Other posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Great article, but given the enormity of these events, "the straw that broke the camel's back" may be putting it mildly.
SPLbeater, you had asked, on the previous blog, what does AGW stand for. AGW is an acronym that stands for Anthropogenic (man made) Global Warming.

AGWT is an acronym that stands for Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory.

I hope this helps.
all so if they retire LEE that would olny be then 2nd TS too do so
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. AGW is evident to me here in Memphis, TN where spring bulbs began sprouting in Nov.
For those so inclined.. this is a diagram of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation..
This is why I'm 1 of the best out there, cocky I may be, but people know me say I'm pretty accurate in what I predict cause I use realistic ways of forecasting hurricanes. I always say don't look past 4-5 days in hurricane development.. don't look past 3 days on landfall. I'm glad these over 5 day predictions are finally being taken off the table cause all they are is wishcasting-dreamcasting or Reedzone casting guesses (not forecasts).'

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/12/13/hurrica ne-predictors-admit-cant-predict-hurricanes/?test= faces

see you guys next June (maybe)

scottsvb
Quoting scottsvb:
This is why I'm 1 of the best out there, cocky I may be, but people know me say I'm pretty accurate in what I predict cause I use realistic ways of forecasting hurricanes. I always say don't look past 4-5 days in hurricane development.. don't look past 3 days on landfall. I'm glad these over 5 day predictions are finally being taken off the table cause all they are is wishcasting-dreamcasting or Reedzone casting guesses (not forecasts).'

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/12/13/hurrica ne-predictors-admit-cant-predict-hurricanes/?test= faces

see you guys next June (maybe)

scottsvb


Hi, Scott. I fixed your link::: For Hurricane Forecasters, the Outlook is Stormy ..... Jeremy Kaplan has such a way with words. ;-)

I agree. Forecasting hurricanes, in December, for the next year has proven to be quite a challenge. Still, why quit? Eventually they will get better at it, I would imagine.

Saying that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and predicting what will happen when too much is pumped into the atmosphere however, is another story. We have seen much more success, unfortunately, with these predictions. ... The heat is on, boys! What are we going to do about it?

Read the article. The Colorado State guys (Klotzbach, et al.) aren't doing December forecasts for upcoming hurricane seasons anymore.

"Our April forecasts have shown reasonably good skills and are getting better over the years," Klotzbach said.
Quoting bappit:
Read the article. The Colorado State guys (Klotzbach, et al.) aren't doing December forecasts for upcoming hurricane seasons anymore.

"Our April forecasts have shown reasonably good skills and are getting better over the years," Klotzbach said.



We are discontinuing our early December quantitative hurricane forecast for the next year and giving a more qualitative discussion of the factors which will determine next year’s Atlantic basin hurricane activity



Read that as "no numbers" this December.

Yep, got to read the story within the story. The Fox news gets it wrong when they say:

Two Colorado State University climatologists, who have independently been tracking and predicting the severity of hurricanes for nearly 30 years, are abandoning their long-range forecasting efforts.

The story gets the story wrong.
Its kinda funny that whenever it snows in Florida, or Everglades City gets into the 20s, there is always a gigantic banner that says you cannot use one single weather event to prove or disprove global warming.

The bias is so obvious its funny.

Global Warming is a fact that everyone who can read peer reviewed literature knows. But, with that knowlege also comes with the knowlege of what types of biases, lack of transparencies, and generalizations are made to back hypotheses that are the backbones to peoples careers.

I find it highly unlikely that the science has grown so concrete with computer models that we have any remote knowlege that AGW will without a doubt cause catastrophic damage to the planet in just a few decades. This is because I know how the literature in my field can be cleaned and shined, and I guarantee it is the same way in this field.

I also wonder if, out of all the models that show little to no warming, do they even count those, or show them, or are they swept under the rug. If a model did show this, would they even say anything?

Similar models are used to relate to weather patterns in the coming year, what is their success rate? It is a fact that that number will go down when you extrapolate out for time.

Both sides are biased. Both sides need to be less so, and todays blog post really put it out there with neon lights and a glowing girls girls girls sign.
I think it's time for scientists, climatologists, and meteorologists to stop tip-toeing around the issue of whether or not a certain event is related to global warming.

While climate is extremely complicated, there is a VERY simple principle that applies to this discussion.

Heat = energy, where energy can equate into chaos, aka atmospheric instability.

More heat = more energy = more chaos, and increased potential for more severe weather.

Dr. Master, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it really that simple?

Had this event occurred 40 years ago, before global warming added an extra 4% moisture to the atmosphere, the Susquehanna flood would have likely stayed within the city's flood walls.

Of course, there was less development and infrastructure back then. It's man made flooding of course, it's the over population and no where for storm waters to go but into civilized areas and only going to get worse as we keep developing and destroying the land
And by the way, more heat = more instability is easily observed on a summer day as you watch thunder storms build. It's not a radical concept, and does translate from a local climatic event to global climate.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Had this event occurred 40 years ago, before global warming added an extra 4% moisture to the atmosphere, the Susquehanna flood would have likely stayed within the city's flood walls.

Of course, there was less development and infrastructure back then. It's man made flooding of course, it's the over population and no where for storm waters to go but into civilized areas and only going to get worse as we keep developing and destroying the land


development does have something to do with increased flooding, but we're also discussing rainfall MEASUREMENTS, not just the flooding results.
Link

Something sort of amusing in the recent weather events.

Lee won't be retired or at least, it shouldn't be.

"our politicians need to adopt intelligent policies that don't cater to special interests in order to deal with the increasingly frequent and larger extreme floods that a warmer climate will bring."

As to global warming, scientists face a challenge in an area they're often not so comfortable in. People suffer from doom fatigue over the news and events- Concerns that people feel may affect them directly (i.e. the economy, first and foremost) are more primary in people's thoughts. I suspect people will become less receptive to the argument of climate change as time goes on, either by disregarding the theory/facts (depending on the viewpoint) or disregarding the means of fixing it. Scientists would need to win the battle of words and views. Are they?

Climate change and its politics will be an interesting story if socio-economic issues take a sharp turn for the worse.
We anticipate four possible scenarios with the probability of each as indicated on the next page:

1.
THC circulation becomes unusually strong in 2012 and no El Niño event occurs (resulting in a seasonal average net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity of ~ 180) – 15% chance.
2.
THC continues in the above-average condition it has been in since 1995 and no El Niño develops (NTC ~ 140) – 45% chance.
3.
THC continues in above-average condition it has been in since 1995 with the development of a significant El Niño (NTC ~ 75) – 30% chance.
4.
THC becomes weaker and there is the development of a significant El Niño (NTC ~ 40) – 10% chance.

Typically, seasons with the above-listed NTC values have TC activity as follows:
180 NTC – 14-17 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes
140 NTC – 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes
75 NTC – 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes
40 NTC – 5-7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, 0-1 major hurricanes
Quoting FatPenguin:


development does have something to do with increased flooding, but we're also discussing rainfall MEASUREMENTS, not just the flooding results.


Development has EVERYTHING to do with flooding. That is why these events are occuring
ritaevac,
if you agree with the scientifically validated 4% increase in moisture, then why debate the point? you've already conceded that global warming is having an effect on rainfall, which means that we'll have more flooding regardless of increased development.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Development has EVERYTHING to do with flooding. That is why these events are occuring


Everything? Okay, then let's end the discussion because you're not capable of having a rational one.
Quoting FatPenguin:
ritaevac,
if you agree with the scientifically validated 4% increase in moisture, then why debate the point? you've already conceded that global warming is having an effect on rainfall, which means that we'll have more flooding regardless of increased development.


First of all, you can't have a number percentage increase of moisture at 4%, it's a man made number system that nature does not use. There is no proof. 2nd of all development is THE cause of these events
Concrete the landscape of the world and everything will flood, simple fact
I can't help but notice the trees and debris piled against the bridge in the first photo. It looks like about 20% of the channel is blocked where the river flows the deepest and fastest. It would be interesting to see the river surface profile at the time of maximum flood and observe for a local rise in the river surface elevation behind the partial obstruction at the bridge. As a consulting civil engineer, I doubt the hydraulic channel calculations provided for that much debris obstruction at the bridge resulting in localized upstream significantly higher flood levels. Channel maintenance is often not a high priority with tight municipal finances. The very real problem of increased runoff with development has triggered the requirement of no net additional runoff from development projects where I work.
once again, i am late to the new blog!!
The Terra-forming of Planet Earth is on time and schedule.

There are now 372 Giorni Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Weds.
the NOV PDO is -2.33
Quoting Patrap:
The Terra-forming of Planet Earth is on time and schedule.

There are now 372 Giorni Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Weds.
You should really look into downloading the timewave zero application.

If you're not familiar with that, listen to this TM talk.
Quoting medicpetite:
I can't help but notice the trees and debris piled against the bridge in the first photo. It looks like about 20% of the channel is blocked where the river flows the deepest and fastest. It would be interesting to see the river surface profile at the time of maximum flood and observe for a local rise in the river surface elevation behind the partial obstruction at the bridge. As a consulting civil engineer, I doubt the hydraulic channel calculations provided for that much debris obstruction at the bridge resulting in localized upstream significantly higher flood levels. Channel maintenance is often not a high priority with tight municipal finances. The very real problem of increased runoff with development has triggered the requirement of no net additional runoff from development projects where I work.


I used to work for a flood district, and it's all based on development. Reason why it's flooding more, it's common sense. Impervious features have increased beyond comprehension these days....adds up to more runoff
Quoting Patrap:
The Terra-forming of Planet Earth is on time and schedule.

There are now 372 Giorni Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Weds.


Are we going to see this every few days till the 21st of next year?
For every house, building, driveway, parking lot, sidewalk, is just that much more water that cannot soak into the ground but has to runoff and that my friend is why water is increasing. More impervious features...more water, more floods, more disasters, more stupidity

Stupidity on both sides, the ones that keep developing and the ones that blame more moisture content in atmosphere.
I share ownership (with my cousin) of 1800 acres of land about an hour from Charleston in rural South Carolina. It's been in our family for at least five generations. It's almost entirely wooded. And the only development on it are a few tree stands which he uses for hunting...and an old trail I cut through it back in the 70's so that I could take girls up in there in my Jeep to watch the submarine races. And it constantly floods. Always has. Hundreds of acres will be under water. And it's getting worse as years go by.

so...please...riddle me this:

How is that the result of development?
Quoting presslord:
I share ownership (with my cousin) of 1800 acres of land about an hour from Charleston in rural South Carolina. It's been in our family for at least five generations. It's almost entirely wooded. And the only development on it are a few tree stands which he uses for hunting...and an old trail I cut through it back in the 70's so that I could take girls up in there in my Jeep to watch the submarine races. And it constantly floods. Always has. Hundreds of acres will be under water. And it's getting worse as years go by.

so...please...riddle me this:

How is that the result of development?


Possible subsidence....look at my region

Quoting RitaEvac:


Possible subsidence....look at my region



Thanks! But remember: I'm a UGA grad. Could you explain that a bit?
More paved/roofed surfaces, less vegetation on unpaved land increase the speed of runoff resulting in all the water arriving downstream at nearly the same time. If that's the case then off peak flows should also be lower I would guess.
Quoting presslord:
I share ownership (with my cousin) of 1800 acres of land about an hour from Charleston in rural South Carolina. It's been in our family for at least five generations. It's almost entirely wooded. And the only development on it are a few tree stands which he uses for hunting...and an old trail I cut through it back in the 70's so that I could take girls up in there in my Jeep to watch the submarine races. And it constantly floods. Always has. Hundreds of acres will be under water. And it's getting worse as years go by.

so...please...riddle me this:

How is that the result of development?

south carolina Marxist man - Listen closely:

That region stretching from Moncks Corner into rural Williamsburg county will continue to flood. The vast area of conifers (shortleaf pine and loblolly dominate) is the strand that goes into the cypress swamps where the sweetgum and cherrybark oak dominate. Of course it is wetland!!! That's a no-brainer there.
Also, if the land has been flooding, that could deposit sediment. The same amount of water could spread out over a larger area because the volume it used to occupy is now filled in with sand and silt. Just speculating.
Quoting presslord:


Thanks! But remember: I'm a UGA grad. Could you explain that a bit?


In less than 100 yrs, some places have subsided almost 10 feet!
You might also have brush accumulating that is acting to slow down the runoff from your land. See medicpetite's post #26.
Quoting bappit:
More paved/roofed surfaces, less vegetation on unpaved land increase the speed of runoff resulting in all the water arriving downstream at nearly the same time. If that's the case then off peak flows should also be lower I would guess.


Actually be more at off peak, because it would be saturated with the onslaught of so much water that comes barreling thru.

In this drought in TX, we get a little rain and water is laying in the canals and ditches, and wondering how the hell water is still laying when it should be sucking it up,
I take global warming as seriously as anyone and I believe it to be a very serious and growing threat. However I am uncomfortable with attributing a single event such as this flood to global warming. Or even all the events of a year. I look at long-term trends more.
Given all the variables, I think the bottom line is that it is dubious to infer climate change from flooding. You can measure rainfall and relate that to climate, but rainfall does not equate to floodwater. I think the Doctor bit off a bit too much with this post.

Edit of an edit: not that I don't think the climate is changing. I think the graphic showing a 67% increase in the northeast of the portion of precipitation occurring during very heavy rainfall events is telling.
Quoting bappit:
Given all the variables, I think the bottom line is that it is dubious to infer climate change from flooding. You can measure rainfall and relate that to climate, but rainfall does not equate to floodwater. I think the Doctor bit off a bit too much with this post.


Yea, you have to figure population increase, impervious features increasing beyond comprehension, subsidence which is very real, all going to create frequent floods,
Houston is going to flood more as well, this is a bayou city, and still sinking,and development is crazy, this city will go from drought to flooding as soon as a pattern change comes and the rains come.

Quoting RitaEvac:


Yea, you have to figure population increase, impervious features increasing beyond comprehension, subsidence which is very real, all going to create frequent floods,


which is why im tired of all the 'new record' events and 'more frequent' acting like its a big deal. if they would look at population, and areas that are now populated which werent, they wouldnt be actin like they do(referring to media)

Thanks to those of you who engaged in civil discourse on the subject...it's an interesting discussion...
Quoting SPLbeater:


which is why im tired of all the 'new record' events and 'more frequent' acting like its a big deal. if they would look at population, and areas that are now populated which werent, they wouldnt be actin like they do(referring to media)



Uneducated
You guys realize that you are ALL right with this?

Rita - totally correct that more infrastructure creates less absorption, that in turn, creates greater flows.

FatPengiun - totally correct in that increased moisture content causes more instability, causing greater output of the moisture.

Summary: Increased atmospheric moisture equals increased moisture output. Increased infrastructure equals increases of runoff with less absorption.

Also to note, where does the increased runoff of lakes, streams, etc, go? Ground absorption yes, some into bottled water (j/k), but mainly finding it’s way into the oceans at some point. This introduction of increased freshwater, however miniscule, is slowly diluting the oceans, which in turn allows for increased/quicker evaporation, and the cycle starts again.

I'm no met, nor scientist, just merely an observationalist. I appreciate and respect (most of) :) the opinions here...keep it up!
Quoting Neapolitan:

Heavy rainfall is heavy rainfall; it doesn't care whether it falls on a parking lot, a mountain, a field, a forest, or in the middle of the ocean. And unprecedented rainfall is what happened this past summer in the areas Dr. Masters discussed. As he stated, the flooding was due not to sudden development, but by 1) The unusually heavy rains during the first four weeks of August, before the arrival of Hurricane Irene; 2) Hurricane Irene's 3 - 5 inches of rain; 3) The extreme rains from Tropical Storm Lee's remnants; and 4) The enhanced rainfall on September 7 - 8 due to a moisture plume from Hurricane Katia.


Isn't that what is supposed to happen when the ground is saturated? has to runoff and flood somewhere. The NE had a wet year, plain and simple. And with the population in that part of the country and impervious features....they're a disaster waiting to happen up there. Just been decades since a wet pattern has taken place there that man has forgotton the past. Man has short term memories, and the fact landscapes change over decades to add another kink into the situation.
If I like the Marx brothers does that make me a Marxist?
Quoting bappit:
If I like the Marx brothers does that make me a Marxist?


Only if you like Gummo and Zeppo.
Marxist-Leninism:

Groucho Marx and John Lennon.
A super volcano is what would end this debate, we would find out real quick whether man is the main culprit. Volcano would rearrange everything and show how small and insignificant we really are
BTW...I'm still in the friggin dark red



Live

With the thoughts I'd be thinnin
I could be another Lenin
If I only had a brain.
Here's a good link for the drought in Texas from the Houston-Galveston NWS office.
Are we going to see this every few days till the 21st of next year?

For every house, building, driveway, parking lot, sidewalk, is just that much more water that cannot soak into the ground but has to runoff and that my friend is why water is increasing. More impervious features...more water, more floods, more disasters, more stupidity

Stupidity on both sides, the ones that keep developing and the ones that blame more moisture content in atmosphere.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
You should really look into downloading the timewave zero application.

If you're not familiar with that, listen to this TM talk.



The Singularity

Terrance McKenna was a good dude.

Smart, and on the edge pushing constantly.

I Note the I-Ching every day.

Quoting Patrap:
Are we going to see this every few days till the 21st of next year?

For every house, building, driveway, parking lot, sidewalk, is just that much more water that cannot soak into the ground but has to runoff and that my friend is why water is increasing. More impervious features...more water, more floods, more disasters, more stupidity

Stupidity on both sides, the ones that keep developing and the ones that blame more moisture content in atmosphere.


DOOM
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
3:00 AM JST December 15 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 6.9N 136.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 18 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 8.9N 130.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Houston history:

Early 1940’s: Benchmark relevelings performed - verify that subsidence is occurring (Baytown area had subsided 3.2 feet; Texas City area had subsided 1.6 feet)

1950's: Continued documentation of substantial additional subsidence

1950’s & 60’s: Several studies released linking the relationship between groundwater withdrawal and subsidence (1954: Winslow and Doyle; 1959: Winslow and Wood; 1969: Gabrysch)

1961: Hurricane Carla hits area - brings realization to the region that there is an increased likelihood of flooding due to subsidence.

1975: The Harris-Galveston Subsidence District created by the 64th Legislature

1984: Devastating flood on Brays Bayou renews concern about the effects of subsidence in inland area

1987: A network of 82 benchmarks installed – distributed throughout the districts to determine elevation changes using the Global Positioning System (GPS).

1989: Fort Bend Subsidence District created in legislative session to manage and control subsidence in Fort Bend County

1999: Harris-Galveston Subsidence District adopts its most recent regulatory plan establishing an ultimate groundwater reduction goal for north and west Harris - to reduce groundwater pumpage to 20% of total water demand by 2030.

2003: Fort Bend Subsidence District adopts new regulatory plan establishing groundwater reduction requirements for certain permitees of 30% by 2013 and 60% by 2025.
During Allison's floods they had a civil engineer type on TV disputing Neil Frank's reports on the amount of rain that had fallen. The civil engineer was saying it had to have been more. He basically called Frank a liar on air. My recollection is that this engineer was involved in constructing one of the hospitals that was flooded. It seems that what happened is that, unknown to the engineer, because of subsidence one of the geodetic datum bench marks was three feet lower than they thought it was. So when they surveyed for the construction the backup generators in the hospital wound up being built lower than intended. The result was a pretty chaotic situation.

This link is to a PDF report on the Allison flooding and the actions taken/lessons learned. The pictures of the flooding are pretty amazing. One of the actions recommended/taken was to relevel the first order geodetic datum benchmarks.

edit: Darn, forgot the link.
The Harris-Galveston Subsidence District is a special purpose district created by the Texas Legislature in 1975. The District was created to provide for the regulation of groundwater withdrawal throughout Harris and Galveston counties for the purpose of preventing land subsidence, which leads to increased flooding. The District’s enabling legislation is found in Chapter 8801 of the Special Districts Code.

We achieve our goals through a combination of efforts. Of great importance is controlling subsidence by managing how we use our groundwater resources. This is accomplished through the careful regulation of groundwater withdrawals, working in collaboration with surface water suppliers. And just as significant – short-term and long-term – is the teaching and implementation of water conservation throughout our communities, neighborhoods, businesses, and households…all the way down to the youngest family members.

We are frequently asked, "What, exactly, is subsidence and how are groundwater resources managed? And how do we successfully teach our water users to conserve?"

Let’s start with subsidence. Webster’s defines it as “to sink, to fall to the bottom; to settle.” Well, that’s exactly what some of the land in our area has been doing since the 1920’s. Prior to World War II, areas with significant industrial and petrochemical development, such as Baytown and Texas City, experienced significant, localized subsidence. This trend continued during and after World War II, when rapid industrial and municipal growth began to create broad, regional patterns of subsidence, raising serious concerns over flooding.

In fact, in the critical areas along Galveston Bay, the land surface has sunk as much as 10 feet since 1906! Experts have been studying the subsidence phenomena for almost 100 years, and with each hurricane we have weathered, we’ve seen subsidence and flooding problems worsen.

One dramatic example of this was in the Brownwood subdivision, a coastal community of Baytown where almost continual flooding due to subsidence caused the area to eventually be abandoned.

In 1975, as a result of area residents and local governments becoming increasingly alarmed by the continued impact of subsidence on economic growth and quality of life in the region, the Harris-Galveston Coastal Subsidence District was created by the 64th Texas Legislature as an underground water conservation district. Our main role at that time was to provide for the regulation of the withdrawal of groundwater to control subsidence.
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true. The eruption of a supervolcano would almost certainly end global warming for a number of years. The problem is that it just might end it forever--or at least the few thousand years it'll take for the remnants of humanity to get back to heavy industry and the wanton befouling of the environment. :-\


We should be more afraid of that kind of stuff than AGW, because that will make the AGW debate of disasters look like baby food
Quoting Patrap:



The Singularity

Terrance McKenna was a good dude.

Smart, and on the edge pushing constantly.

I Note the I-Ching every day.



Shucks Patrap - I missed your #100000 comment!


Higgs Boson maybe ...
Link
The mafia involved in waste recycling in New Jersey?


"We're gonna make him an offer he can't re-use."
Thanks for the Terence McKenna link. If nothing else he is entertaining. Maybe he could help me understand some of the posts on here better.

"Just a thought ... ;)"
Lovejoy is blazing a beautiful tail near the sun, if you like space weather.

To paraphrase a friend, "Houston floods if a mouse ...drinks too much coffee."

With all the drained wetlands that used to keep up humididty, Florida's annual precipitation has decreased. However, urbanization with the decreased wetland storage, means more water in the rivers. The bad part is that the rain tends to come in slugs rather than regular light rainfall. As urbanization continues, without pervious pavement and increased flood mitigation efforts, flood peaks may continue to get higher AND droughts longer.
Keeping the aquifer full to prevent sinkholes, and ensure water supply is only getting more challenging. Population increases in demand must be met with increases in conservation. Even reuse water volumes have become important. My vote is waterloveing ornamental turf grass goes first.
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true. The eruption of a supervolcano would almost certainly end global warming for a number of years. The problem is that it just might end it forever--or at least the few thousand years it'll take for the remnants of humanity to get back to heavy industry and the wanton befouling of the environment. :-\

Once you end it/it ends, then it is highly unlikely that humanity will be able to reform from its remnants as you remark; for what seems to be a simple reason.
These remnants will not have the technology lying around to restart with an industrial revolution as most of the energy needed is already so difficult to get at it needs all the ingenuity of hungry humans to find and extract it now. There will be plenty of scrap lying around and a lot of very overgrown ruins but technology needs to be kept on the front burner, you cant forge a plough sheer from the remains of a laptop.
My prediction is, that should humanity collapse and arise from its ashes, then it would probably follow a path similar to African tribes and Pacific islanders, pre colonisation American Indians etc.
ALmost 80 here with 94 percent humidity and off and on drizzle, no real measurable rain but it sure does not feel like December, hope it gets Cold before Christmas because it feels like July.
Philippine Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM PhST December 14 2011
=================================

A Tropical Depression Is Expected To Enter The Philippines Area Of Responsibility.

At 2:00 PM PhSt, A Tropical Depression located at 5.9°N 139.4°E or 1,400 km east of southern Mindanao has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 9 knots.
Quoting Neapolitan:
AGW is preventable; a supervolcano most likely is not. And the world may go on for several thousand--or several tens of thousands--more years before we see a VEI 8 event, while climate change could (and most likely will) cause massive casualties before the end of this century.


Ever wonder if we are already at the tens of thousands of years end of road, and it's time?
Here in Mid TN we are having a lovely 70 degree day (average for today is 49 degrees) with TS forecast later this evening.. did I sleep through the winter??
Quoting Neapolitan:
AGW is preventable; a supervolcano most likely is not. And the world may go on for several thousand--or several tens of thousands--more years before we see a VEI 8 event, while climate change could (and most likely will) cause massive casualties before the end of this century.


Our economic situation globally isn't going to allow it to be prevented, sorry Nea, there's nuttin that can be done. Expect fallout next year. Now you can donate your portfolio and give all your money away, and all the rich 1% can do the same, and that might help out. But I doubt that will happen.
Don't worry folks the Cold WX is on the way just in time for Christmas.

Quoting RitaEvac:


Ever wonder if we are already at the tens of thousands of years end of road, and it's time?


i quoted the scripture last night about that. was removed for 'violating the community standards' crap, lol. if you have a bible on hand,,,take a few mins and read Mark 13:4-37 :D it tells about events to take place before the end.
Quoting JNCali:
Here in Mid TN we are having a lovely 70 degree day (average for today is 49 degrees) with TS forecast later this evening.. did I sleep through the winter??


i would hope so, i would trade winter for hurricane season lol
Quoting mistymountainhop:

Ha. Because of that, Patrap will mostly get a perma ban from Wunderground.

Shame.

BTW...I like your brownie reference.


Wishful thoughts do not affect the Karma of the enlightened.

Have a nice day.

: )
Quoting SPLbeater:


i would hope so, i would trade winter for hurricane season lol


You have mail!
Better warm than cold. The extremes we are facing now are nothng compared to the impacts of the little ice age in the 1800's.
Our technologies these days make it so easy to scare the crap out of people that in the past would never even make it out of the area it was happening unless it was truely a disaster that affect many people. I live in a rural area and we had tornadoes that never got televised because no one got hurt.
In one area we get 100 year floods in others we have all time droughts. Matter of fact we had bad droughts and heat in Texas but some areas it wasn't much different than normal. All the old farmers I talk to said the 30-50's was much worse mainly because of all the farms that were "dust bowls" actually affected the weather. Major wind and dust storms mainly. That's what I love about the weather it's rarely predictable and you never know what is going to happen
I don't know if I should really worry about global warming. It could as easily be a natural cycle than man-made (we barely know enough about our environment to be able to accurately predict the intensity of a hurricane let alone make a firm conclusion about the causes of GW). I feel that humanity has enough problems in the next few years to worry about, many of which could and probably will be worse than climate change in the next 3 decades. Overall, I'm more worried that we will kill ourselves to death in the turbulent times ahead than nature biting back at us. As horrible as this sounds, but it really does sound like this decade will be 1930s-esque.


Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center


How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements.
These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change.
A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.

The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.


Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change.

Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
6:00 AM JST December 15 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Island

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 7.0N 135.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 18 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 9.0N 129.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting Proveit:
Better warm than cold. The extremes we are facing now are nothng compared to the impacts of the little ice age in the 1800's.
Our technologies these days make it so easy to scare the crap out of people that in the past would never even make it out of the area it was happening unless it was truely a disaster that affect many people. I live in a rural area and we had tornadoes that never got televised because no one got hurt.
In one area we get 100 year floods in others we have all time droughts. Matter of fact we had bad droughts and heat in Texas but some areas it wasn't much different than normal. All the old farmers I talk to said the 30-50's was much worse mainly because of all the farms that were "dust bowls" actually affected the weather. Major wind and dust storms mainly. That's what I love about the weather it's rarely predictable and you never know what is going to happen
We don't get much cold weather here in Texas I enjoy the few days of Winter we get here. Seems like it is Summer about 9 to 10 months out of the year to me, LOL
Texas sized soaking on the way!

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE IS CANCELLED. THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS HAS ENDED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
Quoting yqt1001:
I don't know if I should really worry about global warming. It could as easily be a natural cycle than man-made (we barely know enough about our environment to be able to accurately predict the intensity of a hurricane let alone make a firm conclusion about the causes of GW). I feel that humanity has enough problems in the next few years to worry about, many of which could and probably will be worse than climate change in the next 3 decades.


WELL SAID! :D your considering what others arent, and thats good to notice what your noticing:)

Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, my, but it must be a slow day over in the Land of the Banned; we've been "blessed" here with lots of visits from the bored bunker dwellers over the last 24 hours or so. Ah, well; they'll doubtless spot something shiny soon and move on again--or so we can all hope. ;-)


I saw nothing wrong with you post. Makes no sense why it was banned.
pancakes for a #2 dinner. wonderful.
Well, not sure where you got this information but yeah we have all these weather instrunments all over the world now but how long have we had them there? You have to understand being a scientist myself (computer scientist) I have to have adequate data to prove a point. we are talking about weather patterns over millions of years and we are going bonkers and hurting our economy from what 50 years or less of reliable data? are all the temps from the little ice age included in these numbers? it was so much colder then it would definitley change the numbers? I think of all this gloable warming data, the pure data as just inteeresting weather nothing to get our panties in a wad over. We could have some volcanic eruptions over the next 20 years that could change those numbers drastically.

Quoting Patrap:


Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center


How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements.
These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change.
A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.

The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.


Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change.

Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I saw nothing wrong with you post. Makes no sense why it was banned.

Thanks. It's just bored (and sometimes jealous) kids having a little childhood fun while their parents aren't watching...
I actually have a question regarding the blog post.

The post points out that increased global temperatures almost directly leads to more moisture in the atmosphere. But it is also widely accepted that increased global temperatures will lead to the dry regions getting drier and the wet regions getting wetter... along the lines of 2011s flooding in the north/drought in the south.

So my question is, is it that there is actually more moisture in the atmosphere, or is it just being redistributed to the places being directly by floods, or (and to what extent) is it a combination?

Edit: and if it is the effects of both, then would that mean that the areas receiving persistent heavy rainfall should be experiencing the % added by temperature rise (the 4-5% Dr.M mentioned), plus the % being redistributed by changing patterns?
anybody here wanna help out with my weather website.....if you do speak up er mail me and i see what i can do :)
The weather in Texas has always been extreme, it can change in a minute in the winter time. I remeber in the 70's playing football outside at christmas and it was 80 degrees. Other times it was snowing(icy :)) and 5 degrees.
If our planet is getting dangerously hot then why in one of the hottest Texas summers did we only break a few daily records and didn't break the hottest ever record set in 1980? There were other dates this hot in the 30's,40's and 50's. There are so many variables in weather making a prediction of our future with some fixed instruments scattered over the planet is hard for me to believe.
I have had many throw back at me that the average temperature in North Texas was higher than any other time in history. Well, I do believe that because those temps were recorded at DFW airport where that area is mostly covered in concrete now than when the 1980 summer was upon us. The main reason the nights were hotter was because it was so dry, another variable!
A 1F increase in Global temps, produces a 4% Increase in Water Vapor.

A 1C increase in Global temps raises it by 6-7%.

More available WV increases the Chaos Factors.


The atmosphere will seek chaos as a rule, more WV increases that exponentially.



I'm somehow unable to post a new blog?
Quoting HurrikanEB:
I actually have a question regarding the blog post.

The post points out that increased global temperatures almost directly leads to more moisture in the atmosphere. But it is also widely accepted that increased global temperatures will lead to the dry regions getting drier and the wet regions getting wetter... along the lines of 2011s flooding in the north/drought in the south.

So my question is, is it that there is actually more moisture in the atmosphere, or is it just being redistributed to the places being directly by floods, or (and to what extent) is it a combination?


Think about it this way: warmer temperatures cause some wet areas to receive more evaporative moisture from nearby sources of water, while dry areas get hotter and more water evaporates, drying it even further. However, as we have already seen, both drought and flood often hit the same areas in rapid succession in a warming climate, as dry periods are replaced by wet ones. This is actually bad for agriculture, because floods can wash away, then innundate, previously bake-dried topsoils needed for crop growth. These factors are causing famines worldwide, such as in Somalia. In fact, they likely directly contributed to the Arab Spring, including the Egyptian Revolution, which started in part as a protest against high grain prices.

As well in thunderstorm development, rains will likely be heavier, but the volatile atmosphere means that the storms relieve their rains sooner. Some areas might see more rainfall, but most of the rain comes in extremely heavy bursts interspersed with dry periods, causing the effect of net drought.

Oh, and this:

Quoting Patrap:
A 1F increase in Global temps, produces a 4% Increase in Water Vapor.

A 1C increase in Global temps raises it by 6-7%.

More available WV increases the Chaos Factors.


The atmosphere will seek chaos as a rule, more WV increases that exponentially.






Okay, in Texas we are either impacted by dry air from the desert Southwest or the Gulf. This summer we were basically cut off from moisture from the gulf since the high pressure systems were pulling dry air from the West and Southwest or just plain stagnant. I can tell you the moisture in our air was very dry this summer. Now that we are in the more southern and moist weather patterns the humidity levels look the same to me. One thing I do know about water vapor is it's mostly related to the surface area of the oceans, I don't think the surface area of the oceans have grown by 6 - 7 %
Quoting Proveit:



Okay, in Texas we are either impacted by dry air from the desert Southwest or the Gulf. This summer we were basically cut off from moisture from the gulf since the high pressure systems were pulling dry air from the West and Southwest or just plain stagnant. I can tell you the moisture in our air was very dry this summer. Now that we are in the more southern and moist weather patterns the humidity levels look the same to me. One thing I do know about water vapor is it's mostly related to the surface area of the oceans, I don't think the surface area of the oceans have grown by 6 - 7 %


Try a look at the typical WV Mosaic or other.


Also, the Global evaporative Loop increases with the Avg Global temp increase.



..click for Loop.


110. AstroHurricane001 10:57 PM GMT on December 14, 2011:
I'm somehow unable to post a new blog?


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/AstroHurricane00 1/addentry.html

maybe put the address manually in navigation bar?
Quoting emcf30:

Just opposite NEA. Dozens of bloggers the from the " Land of the Banned" as you call it ( which is a untrue statement because I as a paying member and others are posting here ) participated in a surprise video blog with a ten year old suffering from a auto immune disease that is in Shands Hospital. 3 of the bloggers travels across the state to visit this kid today. Not only did they do a live video session with this kid but also, gave him a Android Tablet for going through this ordeal. This kid had been poked 46 times in less than a month for IVs and Blood work. In addition he has had a Bone Marrow and Kidney Biopsy. This kid is my son and I am the Blessed One to have such kindness and passion from a group of people like the Bunker. Something, you, nor anyone else that calls this site home. shall see and experience here. I will let you all go back to your AGW debates and fights. Have a nice evening
Jeff

Well, I'm glad you and your son are getting some good from the site. But anyone can pay a visit there, as I did just this afternoon, and see many posts over many pages berating a solid WU member who's military service wasn't what they think it should have been, or tittering about how they'd conspire to cleverly repost those unclever and offensive "12 Days of Christmas" comments so admin wouldn't be able to keep up, and bragging about how they'd plused their own comments so many times that they actually had more plus votes than Dr. Masters' entry itself, and so on, and so forth. It's my opinion--and I could be wrong--that there's a lot more of that sour grapes stuff going on there than there is being charitable to your unfortunately ill child. (Perhaps if more members were busy being charitable, they'd have less time for stunts such as today's?)

I hope your son gets better.
Another great blog by Masters..like all the references & different view points brought in.


Proveit~ It doesn't take more ocean surface area to increase water vapor. Warmer air holds more WV because the warmer it is the faster the molecules move, the easier it becomes for water to become & stay in water vapor form. Oceans & lakes help add WV to the air as it warms, but it doesn't need to be bigger because the warmer it becomes the faster it evaporates. It's a repeatable experiment with very exact results as to how much warmth allows a certain extra WV to be held in the air.

Warmer air doesn't always mean more WV. In winter the cold air can't hold the humidity..So think of your cold house with a humidity of 25%, you turn on the heat. It is toasty warm by morning but the humidity hardly goes up..because it doesn't have much a source of water to draw from, well except the Christmas tree which is suddenly dry, needles falling...your lips are kinda chapped. Any source available will be robbed much faster than normal.

Like that town in TX.. They had a lake for water, as it got low everyone conserved...but it got really hot & the air from MX is dry too (their drought is hurting TX too). That hot dry air sucked an 18 month supply out of that lake in a few weeks leaving that town looking for water elsewhere.

It's hard to get out of extreme drought. The air tends to take it's share of water..as much as it can hold depending on temp~ from land, trees, animals, lakes. TX needs the GOM to get above average hot with a stuck pattern of an onshore flow for an extended time.
I've done a little checking on the list of 38 ways to win any argument. It originates with a book by Arthur Schopenhauer, The Art of Controversy. An excellent discussion of it is at www.skepticblog.org. I also found some discussion of the list at www.debate.org. You can check out the www.skepticblog.org entries on climate change here.
I can't believe that that could ever happen here on WU....

Really? Venture beyond Master's pretty much weather only blog in WeatherUnderground... I've seen many acts of kindness & giving though connections formed here. People down, sick, flooded out, roofs gone, houses burnt..it's in their Wunderblogs. People give & help & share everyday here..there are just too many here for us to handle every issue in this blog. We've had this issue from a few months in..some people don't want to take their private affairs to their own blog but there isn't room enough for it all here..


Thinking of new blogs.. Astro~ I managed to get a fresh blog up with Firefox, no problem.. Maybe give it another go.


In world weather doom news today I see a heat wave in Canada..hails storm in Malawi that injured people & destroyed homes..flash flood in Guernsey, Canada, New Zealand & Zimbabwe..storm surge in Ireland.. Nuclear events in Canada & South Korea.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
9:00 AM JST December 15 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 7.3N 134.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 16 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 9.1N 128.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Skye...I respect your thoughts more than any other blogger here, but you really had to be there to see what happened today over on the weather bunker. It transcends clicking a button to contribute to a worthy charity, as I've done with Portlight. It transcends having a shoulder to cry on and getting support via words, which I've seen here over the years(you and I have been members about the same time). I think the best of WU was during Katrina, when I think we saved some lives by hammering away on evacuating as local officials and Dr. Masters strongly advised.
.
You had to see the look in this teenage boy's eyes, lying in a hospital bed at acute-care Shands with some serious health problem with an uncertain ending, to see how much it meant...to him...to have what happened today happen. There were a few bunkerite's who drove quite a way and spent quite a bit of time and money to make it all happen. I've never seen anything like it on any site, weather related site or not. It transcends petty thoughts we've seen from others.....I just come back to the boy, who's lying in that bed right now.
Hello all.
Quoting yqt1001:
I don't know if I should really worry about global warming. It could as easily be a natural cycle than man-made (we barely know enough about our environment to be able to accurately predict the intensity of a hurricane let alone make a firm conclusion about the causes of GW). I feel that humanity has enough problems in the next few years to worry about, many of which could and probably will be worse than climate change in the next 3 decades. Overall, I'm more worried that we will kill ourselves to death in the turbulent times ahead than nature biting back at us. As horrible as this sounds, but it really does sound like this decade will be 1930s-esque.


We should worry about global warming. There's no good reason to not, and it's more serious than people are taking it. Climate models predict by 2015, GW would be unstoppable, and there would be very little room for escaping it if we don't take action now.
Cos ~ I'm aware of what happened over at the Bunker today. It was great. And I can understand why you would say, I've never seen anything like it on any site, weather related site or not.

Still, the truth is the same sorts of things happen in WU-circles, too, just as they happen in other blogging worlds I inhabit. Much of it happens outside the public eye, and you'd have no reason to know about it. But there's no question there are good, decent and loving people on this site who do far more than "click a button" to add value, comfort and joy to others' lives. They certainly don't limit themselves to words, or to a casual verbal-pat-on-the-back.

To paraphrase one of my old buddies, there are more things in the blogosphere, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your flame wars.

That's my piece, and I've said it. Enjoy the season, all.

what is bunker? can somebody explin this please?
Quoting yqt1001:
I don't know if I should really worry about global warming. It could as easily be a natural cycle than man-made (we barely know enough about our environment to be able to accurately predict the intensity of a hurricane let alone make a firm conclusion about the causes of GW). I feel that humanity has enough problems in the next few years to worry about, many of which could and probably will be worse than climate change in the next 3 decades. Overall, I'm more worried that we will kill ourselves to death in the turbulent times ahead than nature biting back at us. As horrible as this sounds, but it really does sound like this decade will be 1930s-esque.


We should worry about global warming. There's no good reason to not, and it's more serious than people are taking it. Climate models predict by 2015, GW would be unstoppable, and there would be very little room for escaping it if we don't take action now.
Quoting Proveit:
The weather in Texas has always been extreme, it can change in a minute in the winter time. I remeber in the 70's playing football outside at christmas and it was 80 degrees. Other times it was snowing(icy :)) and 5 degrees.
If our planet is getting dangerously hot then why in one of the hottest Texas summers did we only break a few daily records and didn't break the hottest ever record set in 1980? There were other dates this hot in the 30's,40's and 50's. There are so many variables in weather making a prediction of our future with some fixed instruments scattered over the planet is hard for me to believe.
I have had many throw back at me that the average temperature in North Texas was higher than any other time in history. Well, I do believe that because those temps were recorded at DFW airport where that area is mostly covered in concrete now than when the 1980 summer was upon us. The main reason the nights were hotter was because it was so dry, another variable!

As far as I can recall, Texas did have the hottest summer on record. When you speak of records that were set in the 30's, 40's, and 50's, those may have been only brief heat waves. What Texas experienced this summer is much more prolonged but not as hot. It was generally in the 100's everyday during the summer in Texas, just short of records, but many record highs were set. Typically, long lasting heat waves have less "heatness" to them, but a quick heat wave might have much more heat along with them. Breaking a few record highs over summer is quite a lot. And as far as I know, nights would be typically cooler if it's more dryer. The lack of moisture in the atmosphere would allow the nights to cool down faster (specific heat), although that wasn't the case for places near the Gulf of Mexico, where humidity levels were higher thus in so keeping the overnight lows well above average.
better..
Thousands of birds make crash landing in Utah The Associated Press

ST. GEORGE, Utah - Thousands of migratory birds were killed or injured after apparently mistaking a Wal-Mart parking lot, football fields and other snow-covered areas of southern Utah for bodies of water and plummeting to the ground in what one state wildlife expert called the worst mass bird crash she'd ever seen.

Crews went to work cleaning up the dead birds and rescuing the injured survivors after the creatures crash-landed in the St. George area Monday night.

By midday Wednesday, volunteers had helped rescue more than 3,000 birds, releasing them into a nearby pond. There's no count on how many died, although officials estimate it's upwards of 1,500.

Read more: http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2011/12/14/2310925 /thousands-of-birds-make-crash.html#ixzz1gZ8XWMU7
Quoting TomTaylor:
Hello all.


Hello Tom
Mexican farmers despair over record drought
by Staff Writers
Chihuahua, Mexico (AFP) Dec 12, 2011

Dust blows across once fertile fields in north Mexico, where the worst drought in 70 years has left thousands of cattle dead and destroyed more than two million acres (almost one million hectares) of crops.

"It practically hasn't rained this year," said Ernesto Ruiz, a farmer in Satevo, in the border state of Chihuahua.

"It's sad to see the land like this," Ruiz added, observing the remains of his corn and sorghum fields.

Dry conditions have affected 1.7 million head of cattle, including 50,000 that have died, according to the Agriculture Ministry.......................

Link
Panama area keeps holding that low...

'Fountains' of methane 1,000m across erupt from Arctic ice - a greenhouse gas 30 times more potent than carbon dioxide

'Methane fields on a scale not seen before' - researcher
More than 100 fountains, but could be 'thousands'
Could cause rapid climate change

The Russian research vessel Academician Lavrentiev conducted a survey of 10,000 square miles of sea off the coast of eastern Siberia.

They made a terrifying discovery - huge plumes of methane bubbles rising to the surface from the seabed.

'We found more than 100 fountains, some more than a kilometre across,' said Dr Igor Semiletov, 'These are methane fields on a scale not seen before. The emissions went directly into the atmosphere.'
Far East Siberia: The melting of 'permafrost' under the sea has led to huge releases of methane - far more abrupt and intense than anything on land

Far East Siberia: The melting of 'permafrost' under the sea has led to huge releases of methane - far more abrupt and intense than anything on land

Earlier research conducted by Semiletov's team had concluded that the amount of methane currently coming out of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is comparable to the amount coming out of the entire world’s oceans.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-207 3686/Fountains-methane-1-000m-erupt-Arctic-ice--gr eenhouse-gas-30-times-potent-carbon-dioxide.html#i xzz1gZBudVEp
Could those just be seeps of natural gas?
Shark that smiles for the cameras: Meet the fearsome creature that eats polar bears and can live until 200

By Gareth Finighan Last updated at 7:11 PM on 14th December 2011

A daredevil photographer went to extraordinary lengths to photograph these rarely seen sharks, which look like they have been etched from stone.
These incredible Greenland sharks can survive for more than 200 years at depths of up to 600 metres under Arctic ice.
Bigger than the notorious great white, they grow to 23-feet long and are so fearsome they have even been known to eat polar bears.

Link

I see the Doc has made a GW blog...Yeah gonna get off now.anywho I see rumors are that once again(but not surprisingly) that people were banned.Good night.
Uh-Oh... Crashing birds again...
Link
Quoting Proveit:



One thing I do know about water vapor is it's mostly related to the surface area of the oceans, I don't think the surface area of the oceans have grown by 6 - 7 %


No, that's not quite correct. Changes in globally-averaged water vapor do not correspond to changes in the "surface area of the oceans." As mentioned previously, the moisture capacity of air varies significantly by its temperature, and as temperature increases, the capacity increase is non-linear. An increase in specific humidity averaged across the globe has been measured and has nothing to do with the ratio of land to oceans, it has to do with average global temperature of land/air/sea increasing.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Cool video, thank you for posting it..:)
Quoting GTAIVman:


Texas did have the hottest summer on record. When you speak of records that were set in the 30's, 40's, and 50's, those may have been only brief heat waves. What Texas experienced this summer is much more prolonged but not as hot. It was generally in the 100's everyday during the summer in Texas, just short of records, but many record highs were set. Typically, long lasting heat waves have less "heatness" to them, but a quick heat wave might have much more heat along with them. Breaking a few record highs over summer is quite a lot. And as far as I know, nights would be typically cooler if it's more dryer. The lack of moisture in the atmosphere would allow the nights to cool down faster (specific heat), although that wasn't the case for places near the Gulf of Mexico, where humidity levels were higher thus in so keeping the overnight lows well above average.


Exactly. Texas had the hottest summer on record, along with Oklahoma having the hottest month on record of any US state during any month. Having a hottest/driest summer on record literally obliterate past records is of a completely different magnitude than one site breaking a state record for one point in time.
Quoting BioChemist:
Its kinda funny that whenever it snows in Florida, or Everglades City gets into the 20s, there is always a gigantic banner that says you cannot use one single weather event to prove or disprove global warming.

The bias is so obvious its funny.

Global Warming is a fact that everyone who can read peer reviewed literature knows. But, with that knowlege also comes with the knowlege of what types of biases, lack of transparencies, and generalizations are made to back hypotheses that are the backbones to peoples careers.

I find it highly unlikely that the science has grown so concrete with computer models that we have any remote knowlege that AGW will without a doubt cause catastrophic damage to the planet in just a few decades. This is because I know how the literature in my field can be cleaned and shined, and I guarantee it is the same way in this field.

I also wonder if, out of all the models that show little to no warming, do they even count those, or show them, or are they swept under the rug. If a model did show this, would they even say anything?

Similar models are used to relate to weather patterns in the coming year, what is their success rate? It is a fact that that number will go down when you extrapolate out for time.

Both sides are biased. Both sides need to be less so, and todays blog post really put it out there with neon lights and a glowing girls girls girls sign.


Apparently you have not read much literature on the subject.

First, there is not a single credible scientist claiming catastrophic damage to the planet will occur. There is plenty of research pointing to more extreme weather events, climate changes, and other such items that will affect HUMANS. But the planet, as always, will be just fine.

All long range climate predictions are run with multiple models with multiple scenarios. Lots of them. Just like weather models, climate models are using ensembles, only a larger scale.

Climate models do not "extrapolate". They simulate. They use the physical equations describing various facets of the climate to simulate our global climate system. That's a far cry from merely extrapolating.

Even the simplest possible 0-D climate models predict a warmer planet based on increased GHGs. It's simple physics. You add more GHGs, you get higher planetary temperatures. In this universe, we obey the laws of thermodynamics.

The real climate models take land changes, ocean changes, atmospheric chemistry changes, solar changes, etc. into account. There aren't ANY scientifically validated models that show little or no warming. Check out the IPCC report to get better idea about the models, ranges, error bars, etc. .

Also, climate != weather. Climate models do not predict yearly weather patterns, nor can they. That's not what climate models do. Climate models predict overall probabilities of conditions and large scale/long term events. For example, a climate model can predict the average global temperature 50 years from now with a high degree of accuracy, but it will NOT tell how hot it will be on July 2, 2050.

Climate models have been used for few decades now to make predictions (many of which are used in government and business decision making). They've done a pretty good job, despite the lack of sophistication in some of the earlier models back in the 70's and 80's. In fact, the 0-D energy balance model can get you within spitting distance of our current global average temperature, and that was created back in the early 20th century.

Dr. Master's post isn't about one event. It's about a series of events. Even just restricting to the US, the number of extreme events have been on a steady increase over the past 30 years.

Instead of superstitiously hinting at conspiracy, corruption, or some other form of dishonesty you can try posting some references to some reviewed research that shows how current climate science has it all wrong.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Development has EVERYTHING to do with flooding. That is why these events are occuring


Flooding happens in non-developed regions as well (it just doesn't make the news very often). The only time you hear about flooding in non-developed areas is when it may influence flooding IN developed areas. A river 15 feet above flood stage in the middle of nowhere Nebraska isn't going to make the news. But if a flood wall is crested in a populated area, you'll see it all over the place.

And while development CAN affect water levels on a local scale, watersheds are much much larger than any human development. For example, look at the Mississippi river basin. The watershed is essentially the middle third of the country. An increase of 4% atmospheric water content means more heavy rainfall events over the basin, which means a noticeably higher risk of flooding, regardless of whether an area is developed or not.

Increased global atmospheric moisture increases precipitation, which increases the likelihood of extreme precipitation events.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Concrete the landscape of the world and everything will flood, simple fact


No it is not a simple fact. A properly planned "concrete" world would have run-off channels, "dry" rivers, and flow controls which would eliminate flooding. As a demonstration of this, inland cities and towns in southern California have hundreds to thousands of concrete "dry" rivers. Why? Because without them any heavy rainstorm would flash flood the valley basins into kindling and wreckage.

Even without planning, a concrete world would still only result in flooding in the lowest lying areas. There isn't enough precipitation to "flood the world", as you put it.

So no, your hyperbole is not a fact.
Quoting bappit:
Given all the variables, I think the bottom line is that it is dubious to infer climate change from flooding. You can measure rainfall and relate that to climate, but rainfall does not equate to floodwater. I think the Doctor bit off a bit too much with this post.

Edit of an edit: not that I don't think the climate is changing. I think the graphic showing a 67% increase in the northeast of the portion of precipitation occurring during very heavy rainfall events is telling.


That's isn't what he's saying. He is pointing out that the measured increase in water vapor leads to an increased likelihood of heavy precipitation events. He is also stating the increases in such events over the past few decades merit this out. He also provides links to references to reinforce this.

He's not stating specific attribution (which you can't do). He's pointing out that events like these floods are more likely to happen with increasing atmospheric moisture.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Panama area keeps holding that low...



Boy, that is one crazy smoke ring in the CATL. Where'd that come from?
151. JRRP
Quoting sunlinepr:

nice pic
Philippine Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SENDONG
11:00 AM PhST December 15 2011
=================================

The Tropical Depression East of Mindanao has entered PAR and was named "SENDONG".

At 10:00 AM PhST, A Tropical Depression located at 7.5°N 134.2°E or 840 km east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Depression "SENDONG" is likely to intensify within the next 24 hours.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
12:00 PM JST December 15 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Island

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 7.6N 133.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 18 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 9.2N 127.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Incredible video of Binghamton Flood. HD, good tune, there too..


Cosmic~ I agree about Katrina. The outpouring of lurkers & our not so fair weather friends after was overwhelming. That Ike surge. There's been smaller events too.

I wasn't referring to portlight they are more large scale disaster, lost, disabled or something but the Wunderblogs.. There's all sorts of stories of people helping people there. Just read through the titles.. Seen people travel to help out sick here. I think some Wunderbloggers went to Bord's funeral this week..As a whole we're still in a bit of shock over losing a regular like that.

I've got shelter if needed, in every direction from other WUnderfolk..that's something. There's people here that think nothing of mailing a care package to a Wunderblogger in the Caribbean that contains a chainsaw. Some of it goes on in Wundermail. Not so much this blog, since it doesn't really belong here other than maybe a shout out to get people to a Wunderblog..like your doing now. Chances are he's in for more help just by it being mentioned here. Hope he recovers fully.

If here we don't keep to constantly obsessing about the weather, the season, the climate, the records, the models, ENSO, MJO, PDO, AMO, NAO, ESPI, SST & such..we could miss something that could save someone too. Not that is necessarily the intent (& you people should listen to your NWS)..but more an unexpected surprise that evolved out of some of ours' love of chaos..


I'll go with 60kts at landfall for now..

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
ALmost 80 here with 94 percent humidity and off and on drizzle, no real measurable rain but it sure does not feel like December, hope it gets Cold before Christmas because it feels like July.




Welcome to Texas. Or in the case of SE TX where it's always humid!  Lol.  Had some foggy pics and huge hair while out Christmas shopping today. But I'm too tired to upload. Lol. We're runnin 65 F, 65 dewpoint, 100% humidity. What could be more Christmasy? :-D Hope you get your cold.


Statement as of 6:56 PM CST on December 14, 2011




... Dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am CST Thursday...

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a dense
fog advisory... which is in effect until 9 am CST Thursday.

* Visibility... widespread visibilities below 1/2 mile are
expected. Occasional visibilities below 1/4 mile in patches.

* Impacts... more time required to reach you destination.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to less than one quarter mile. If driving... slow down...
use your headlights... and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.




Quoting CosmicEvents:
Skye...I respect your thoughts more than any other blogger here, but you really had to be there to see what happened today over on the weather bunker. It transcends clicking a button to contribute to a worthy charity, as I've done with Portlight. It transcends having a shoulder to cry on and getting support via words, which I've seen here over the years(you and I have been members about the same time). I think the best of WU was during Katrina, when I think we saved some lives by hammering away on evacuating as local officials and Dr. Masters strongly advised.
.
You had to see the look in this teenage boy's eyes, lying in a hospital bed at acute-care Shands with some serious health problem with an uncertain ending, to see how much it meant...to him...to have what happened today happen. There were a few bunkerite's who drove quite a way and spent quite a bit of time and money to make it all happen. I've never seen anything like it on any site, weather related site or not. It transcends petty thoughts we've seen from others.....I just come back to the boy, who's lying in that bed right now.

Oh Cosmic. I am just weeping as I'm reading this. Oh Cosmic. I so need you right now. Oh Cosmic. I am going to deliver you personally a big special batch of Aqua's brownies.

Oh Cosmic.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Apparently you have not read much literature on the subject.

First, there is not a single credible scientist claiming catastrophic damage to the planet will occur. There is plenty of research pointing to more extreme weather events, climate changes, and other such items that will affect HUMANS. But the planet, as always, will be just fine.

All long range climate predictions are run with multiple models with multiple scenarios. Lots of them. Just like weather models, climate models are using ensembles, only a larger scale.

Climate models do not "extrapolate". They simulate. They use the physical equations describing various facets of the climate to simulate our global climate system. That's a far cry from merely extrapolating.

Even the simplest possible 0-D climate models predict a warmer planet based on increased GHGs. It's simple physics. You add more GHGs, you get higher planetary temperatures. In this universe, we obey the laws of thermodynamics.

The real climate models take land changes, ocean changes, atmospheric chemistry changes, solar changes, etc. into account. There aren't ANY scientifically validated models that show little or no warming. Check out the IPCC report to get better idea about the models, ranges, error bars, etc. .

Also, climate != weather. Climate models do not predict yearly weather patterns, nor can they. That's not what climate models do. Climate models predict overall probabilities of conditions and large scale/long term events. For example, a climate model can predict the average global temperature 50 years from now with a high degree of accuracy, but it will NOT tell how hot it will be on July 2, 2050.

Climate models have been used for few decades now to make predictions (many of which are used in government and business decision making). They've done a pretty good job, despite the lack of sophistication in some of the earlier models back in the 70's and 80's. In fact, the 0-D energy balance model can get you within spitting distance of our current global average temperature, and that was created back in the early 20th century.

Dr. Master's post isn't about one event. It's about a series of events. Even just restricting to the US, the number of extreme events have been on a steady increase over the past 30 years.

Instead of superstitiously hinting at conspiracy, corruption, or some other form of dishonesty you can try posting some references to some reviewed research that shows how current climate science has it all wrong.

Hahaha. I had to read your reply 3 times because I just couldn't believe you actually took the couple hours to compose that.

Next time, why don't you simply tell the other blogger that they are wrong...

It's a lot easier and saves a lot of time.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


That's isn't what he's saying. He is pointing out that the measured increase in water vapor leads to an increased likelihood of heavy precipitation events. He is also stating the increases in such events over the past few decades merit this out. He also provides links to references to reinforce this.

He's not stating specific attribution (which you can't do). He's pointing out that events like these floods are more likely to happen with increasing atmospheric moisture.


Dr. M makes the following claim.

"Had this event occurred 40 years ago, before global warming added an extra 4% moisture to the atmosphere, the Susquehanna flood would have likely stayed within the city's flood walls."

He is in fact equating climate change with likely flooding in this specific instance. In weather forecaster speak, a likely event is something you had darn well better prepare for, so there is an implied direct connection between the 4% extra moisture and a need to take action.

Backing up a moment, a lot of factors due to 40 years of change could account for a difference of 8.5 inches that are independent of the precipitation amount, but surely they are red herrings for this blog's topic. (Perhaps that is what you want to point out?) It probably would have been more in line with his position to say:

"Had this event occurred without an extra 4% moisture to the atmosphere, the Susquehanna flood would have likely stayed within the city's flood walls."

Of course, the whole dynamics of the atmosphere would have been different without the extra 4% of moisture. The combination of the four events he describes would not have even occurred since the atmosphere would be in a completely different state--a critical point that probably needs greater emphasis. We would in fact be talking about a completely different hurricane season. Since we in fact do have an extra 4% of moisture in the air, we are in effect asking what is the incremental contribution to the flooding that the extra 4% creates apart from the creation of the weather patterns in the first place.

Now there are two important questions: a) how much rain does a 4% increase in humidity amount to in this case and b) how does that precipitation increase play out given the hydrology of the Susquehanna river basin. Dr. M cites studies that are suggestive but are not conclusively applicable. For instance, Lee was a thousand miles from where it made landfall, well inland, but Dr. M cites a study of Katrina and Ivan when over water.

Answers to complicated questions like these cannot be developed in a Wunderground blog post. The post starts off with a strong assertion and eventually backs away from the initial position. In the middle of a long passage near the end. Dr. M says:

"It is possible that detailed computer modeling studies of the event may conclude that global warming was not a significant factor in this particular case."

In effect Dr. M admits that his initial assertion is just that. Call it a claim if you doubt it, a hypothesis if you are sympathetic. There is no demonstrable connection--at least yet. I don't think Dr. M is off target with raising concerns about increased heavy precipitation events. I just think that in this case he bit off a bit too much.


This Dec. 8, 2011 satellite image provided by the the DigitalGlobe Analysis Center shows the Chinese aircraft carrier Varyag sailing in the Yellow Sea, approximately 100 kilometers south-southeast of the port of Dalian, China. (AP Photo/DigitalGlobe) MANDATORY CREDIT

APNewsBreak: Satellite gets pic of Chines
e carrier

DENVER (AP) - A commercial U.S. satellite company said it has captured a photo of China's first aircraft carrier in the Yellow Sea off the Chinese coast.

DigitalGlobe Inc. said Wednesday one of its satellites photographed the carrier Dec. 8. A DigitalGlobe analyst found the image Tuesday while searching through photos.

Stephen Wood, director of DigitalGlobe's analysis center, said he's confident the ship is the Chinese carrier because of the location and date of the photo. The carrier was on a sea trial at the time.

DigitalGlobe, based in Longmont, Colo., sells satellite imagery and analysis to clients that include the U.S. military, emergency response agencies and private companies. DigitalGlobe has three orbiting satellites and a fourth is under construction.

The aircraft carrier has generated intense international interest because of what it might portend about China's intentions as a military power.

The former Soviet Union started building the carrier, which it called the Varyag, but never finished it. When the Soviet Union collapsed, it ended up in the hands of Ukraine, a former Soviet republic.

China bought the ship from Ukraine in 1998 and spent years refurbishing it. It had no engines, weaponry or navigation systems when China acquired it.


More Link
Cool pic sunlinepr!

Here is an interesting quote from the paper on Ivan and Katrina cited in Dr. M's blog.

"It is abundantly clear from this and several previous studies that the moisture budget in tropical cyclones is dominated by the inflow of moisture, mainly in the lowest 1 km of the storm. Inside about 100 km of the center of the storm, the moisture inflow is about a factor of 10 greater than the latent heat flux from the surface (12.9 for Ivan and 9.1 for Katrina), in spite of the fact that it is ultimately the latter that mainly causes the inflow to occur."

I've seen comments on the blog that attribute the cold wakes of cyclones to evaporation which is not true. It occurs from vertical mixing which is why the TCHP is so dependent on the depth of the warmer water. With high TCHP, when water mixes down, warm water replaces it. With lower TCHP, when water mixes down colder water replaces it. The dominance of moisture inflow over evaporation in latent heat flux is consistent with evaporation not accounting for the cold water wake.

The last little piece is interesting: "it is ultimately the latter that mainly causes the inflow to occur".
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL STORM WASHI (T1121)
15:00 PM JST December 15 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Caroline Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Washi (1000 hPa) located at 7.8N 132.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 19 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 9.6N 126.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 10.6N 122.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 10.9N 117.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting mickharp:

Hahaha. I had to read your reply 3 times because I just couldn't believe you actually took the couple hours to compose that.

Next time, why don't you simply tell the other blogger that they are wrong...

It's a lot easier and saves a lot of time.


Not if you want to make a convincing argument it's not.
Quoting mickharp:

Hahaha. I had to read your reply 3 times because I just couldn't believe you actually took the couple hours to compose that.

Next time, why don't you simply tell the other blogger that they are wrong...

It's a lot easier and saves a lot of time.

He stepped on your corns, didn't he !
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL STORM WASHI (T1121)
15:00 PM JST December 15 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Caroline Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Washi (1000 hPa) located at 7.8N 132.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 19 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 9.6N 126.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 10.6N 122.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 10.9N 117.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Washi???.Cool name :).
Number 146 and 147:

I see nothing wrong with these two posts. They seem to be good arguments. Except the fact that the cut and paste from previous responses from prior blogs gets a little old...

Link
Thunderstorms building in N Texas this morning.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
i like how you're trying to rack up your comment post numbers.

Let me give you a hint: Putting all three on one comment and sizing them nicely makes you much more appealing to readers than trying to impress others with your mammoth numbers.
Another Warm day across the SE US.

Some wet snow could fall in the very early morning hours of Saturday.At least I hope by the time I wake up (which is around 7 in the morning at times) it doesn't all melt away.
Boy I guess someone doesn't like wx maps being posted. Well let me tell you that this is a wx blog and people come for wx updates and for other information that's related to our ever changing climate.
Boy this snow cover map is pathetic for this time in December.

Looks like the beach may not be a bad idea this Christmas in FL as water are still warm!

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks like the beach may not be a bad idea this Christmas in FL as water are still warm!

The gulf stream water temps arn't that bad for this time of year.I remember back in 09 they were much colder than that if memory serves me correctly.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The gulf stream water temps arn't that bad for this time of year.I remember back in 09 they were much colder than that if memory serves me correctly.


Last year SST's around FL were in the 40's & 50's. Infact their were some nights were I got down into the upper teens around this time last year in C FL.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Some wet snow could fall in the very early morning hours of Saturday.At least I hope by the time I wake up (which is around 7 in the morning at times) it doesn't all melt away.


Yes, I was thinking the same thing. Cold air seems to be in place and the wave of low pressure does seem to be trending north on the models which could lead to a few hours of said light snow. Still, whatever falls will have a hard time sticking and if it does accumulate it will be melted by mid afternoon....
Quoting sunlinepr:


This Dec. 8, 2011 satellite image provided by the the DigitalGlobe Analysis Center shows the Chinese aircraft carrier Varyag sailing in the Yellow Sea, approximately 100 kilometers south-southeast of the port of Dalian, China. (AP Photo/DigitalGlobe) MANDATORY CREDIT

APNewsBreak: Satellite gets pic of Chines
e carrier

DENVER (AP) - A commercial U.S. satellite company said it has captured a photo of China's first aircraft carrier in the Yellow Sea off the Chinese coast.

DigitalGlobe Inc. said Wednesday one of its satellites photographed the carrier Dec. 8. A DigitalGlobe analyst found the image Tuesday while searching through photos.

Stephen Wood, director of DigitalGlobe's analysis center, said he's confident the ship is the Chinese carrier because of the location and date of the photo. The carrier was on a sea trial at the time.

DigitalGlobe, based in Longmont, Colo., sells satellite imagery and analysis to clients that include the U.S. military, emergency response agencies and private companies. DigitalGlobe has three orbiting satellites and a fourth is under construction.

The aircraft carrier has generated intense international interest because of what it might portend about China's intentions as a military power.

The former Soviet Union started building the carrier, which it called the Varyag, but never finished it. When the Soviet Union collapsed, it ended up in the hands of Ukraine, a former Soviet republic.

China bought the ship from Ukraine in 1998 and spent years refurbishing it. It had no engines, weaponry or navigation systems when China acquired it.


More Link


first AC...well, they got the basic layout alright, lol. last night i watched my DVD of the Aircraft Carrier history, from WWI to now. we have a fleet of 13 super carriers, 10 of which are in the newest Nimitz class. (the interest of mine behind weather is military, Navy in particular lol)
Quoting SPLbeater:
what is bunker? can somebody explin this please?


Can't tell you - it would violate the "community standards":

"...Generally, links to non-commercial (that is, personal) weather sites, personal sites/blogs, and especially photographers' site (even commercial) are allowed. If sites are found to contain information or discussion that goes beyond our own rules or is found to be abusive it will be removed..."

Besides, even if I did type out the site's name, it would magically change...
Quoting hcubed:


Can't tell you - it would violate the "community standards":

"...Generally, links to non-commercial (that is, personal) weather sites, personal sites/blogs, and especially photographers' site (even commercial) are allowed. If sites are found to contain information or discussion that goes beyond our own rules or is found to be abusive it will be removed..."

Besides, even if I did type out the site's name, it would magically change...


oh, ok. sorry if i did possibly mess with anybodys nerves there, i didnt know what that was....altho i do gots my own weather site, but it aint private. anybody welcome. :D

again, apologies for the question:)
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, I'm glad you and your son are getting some good from the site. But anyone can pay a visit there, as I did just this afternoon, and see many posts over many pages berating a solid WU member who's military service wasn't what they think it should have been, or tittering about how they'd conspire to cleverly repost those unclever and offensive "12 Days of Christmas" comments so admin wouldn't be able to keep up, and bragging about how they'd plused their own comments so many times that they actually had more plus votes than Dr. Masters' entry itself, and so on, and so forth. It's my opinion--and I could be wrong--that there's a lot more of that sour grapes stuff going on there than there is being charitable to your unfortunately ill child. (Perhaps if more members were busy being charitable, they'd have less time for stunts such as today's?)

I hope your son gets better.


Wrong again Nea
Slight chance of a second sun this evening.

BIG COMET PLUNGES TOWARD THE SUN...

Link

Quoting FtMyersgal:


Wrong again Nea


Yeah, that's wrong Nea. I checked it out and I haven't seen anything sinister there...
Hello from Texas, i have 2 ponds behind my backyard, my house backs up to a very nice and big farm. These ponds have been bone dry for at least the past 6 months. Had a good rain this morning and water is finally going into these ponds. It is such a positive feeling for me. If we get some heavy rains our ground is finally saturated and Lake levels will go up.
Philippine Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL STORM SENDONG (WASHI)
11:00 PM PhST December 15 2011
=================================

Tropical Storm "SENDONG" has maintained its strength as it increases its threat to Northeastern Mindanao and Eastern Visayas area

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Sendong located at 7.9°N 130.4°E or 430 km east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Visayas region
=============
1.Eastern Samar
2.Western Samar
3.Leyte Provinces
4.Camotes Island
5.Bohol

Mindanao region
==============
1.Surigao Del Norte
2.Siargao Island
3.Surigao Del Sur
4.Dinagat Province
5.Agusan Provinces
6.Misamis Oriental

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon region
============
1.Sorsogon
2.Ticao Island
3.Masbate

Visayas region
=============
1.Northern Samar
2.Biliran Island
3.Panay Island
4.Guimaras
5.Negros Provinces
6.Cebu
7.Siquijor Island

Mindanao region
==============
1.Davao Oriental
2.Daval Del Norte
3.Samal Island
4.Bukidnon
5.Lanao Provinces
6.Misamis Occidental
7.Zamboanga Provinces

Additional Information
=======================

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Hello from Texas, i have 2 ponds behind my backyard, my house backs up to a very nice and big farm. These ponds have been bone dry for at least the past 6 months. Had a good rain this morning and water is finally going into these ponds. It is such a positive feeling for me. If we get some heavy rains our ground is finally saturated and Lake levels will go up.


Those lakes will be filling up fast over the next 10 days as lots of heavy is in the forecast for most of Texas. Great news as I'm really happy you guys are getting some much needed rains.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Hello from Texas, i have 2 ponds behind my backyard, my house backs up to a very nice and big farm. These ponds have been bone dry for at least the past 6 months. Had a good rain this morning and water is finally going into these ponds. It is such a positive feeling for me. If we get some heavy rains our ground is finally saturated and Lake levels will go up.


Finally huh



Southwest and Southern Great Plains: Some light but beneficial rains (generally less than 1.0 inch) fell across central Texas with more substantial amount (1.0 %u2013 2.9 inches) falling across southern Texas. Accordingly, the depiction of exceptional drought (D4) was modified to remove much of Duval, Webb, and Starr counties, retaining extreme drought (D3) designations. According to the Weather Forecast Office in Brownsville, the higher relative humidity values during the past week and daily cloud cover aided the recovery by minimizing evaporation. Across Maverick and western Dimmit counties, rainfall also prompted a slight improvement to moderate drought (D2) from extreme drought conditions. The area near Victoria, TX missed out on the rains, and is experiencing its driest year on record. The year-to-date total precipitation (according to ACIS) in the Victoria area is 12.10 inches, nearly 3.5 inches drier than the previous driest year on record (1956).
150000Z TS Washi

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 993.9mb/ 57.0kt

Raw T# 3.5
Adj T# 3.5
Final T# 3.5

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
If anyone cares............
Parts of the North Island of New Zealand was hit by a destructive deluge of wet weather. In some parts 500mm(19.5in) in 36hrs.

Here are the results.


tried to form eyewall earlier, trying again

Looks quite destructive, thank you for keeping us informed, always interested in world wide weather. It is all going around and affecting everyone eventually.
Quoting AussieStorm:
If anyone cares............
Parts of the North Island of New Zealand was hit by a destructive deluge of wet weather. In some parts 500mm(19.5in) in 36hrs.

Here are the results.



Quoting AussieStorm:
If anyone cares............
Parts of the North Island of New Zealand was hit by a destructive deluge of wet weather. In some parts 500mm(19.5in) in 36hrs.

Here are the results.




wow
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Last year SST's around FL were in the 40's & 50's. Infact their were some nights were I got down into the upper teens around this time last year in C FL.
Some foreshowdowing of next year?.Lol.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Yes, I was thinking the same thing. Cold air seems to be in place and the wave of low pressure does seem to be trending north on the models which could lead to a few hours of said light snow. Still, whatever falls will have a hard time sticking and if it does accumulate it will be melted by mid afternoon....
I still wanna see some before it goes away :).
Washi lookin a bit better past few hours..
Quoting hydrus:
Washi lookin a bit better past few hours..
Looks like he's going to be a WASH OUT for the islands.Lolol.
nice size storm over Aleutians
AGW such a load of crap and lies. Good luck trying to sell that.
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
AGW such a load of crap and lies. Good luck trying to sell that.
I just had to plus this post.100000000+.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Slight chance of a second sun this evening.

BIG COMET PLUNGES TOWARD THE SUN...

Link

Hi all, thanks for the heads up Chillin. Now where do I find exposed film so I can look for the comet? I guess I could use two polarized sunglasses or just break my clip ons. :)
Aussiestorm, that was some video. Yes, I care. Just more of the same weather this year to extend into next year I think. Just 372 days until the EOTW!



Navy Official Discusses Climate Change Investment Strategy

By Bob Freeman
Office of the Oceanographer of the Navy



WASHINGTON, June 21, 2010 – A number of recent strategic Defense Department documents have recognized that the changing climate may affect national security and military operations later in the century.
This is particularly true for the globally deployed U.S. Navy, and investments to address climate challenges may need to be made, the service’s oceanographer said in a June 18 “DoD Live” bloggers roundtable.
“We're going to have to fold these challenges into a tight fiscal budget,” acknowledged Navy Rear Adm. David W. Titley, who also serves as director of the Navy's Task Force Climate Change. He explained that it is important not only to know what investments are right to meet future requirements, but also to know when to make them.

“We want to basically pace the threat,” Titley said. “We don't want to get into a tail chase over climate change, but at the same time, … we do not want to spend ahead of need, spending for things that may not be required for years or decades later.”
Titley explained that to define the scope of needed investments the Navy will conduct capabilities-based assessments, which he described as foundational studies to determine the requirements for such things as force structure, infrastructure, command and control and communications. “We're doing one of these capabilities-based assessments for climate change in general, and another one focused specifically on the Arctic,” he said.
Titley said the assessments were timed to coincide with the Navy's program objective memorandum for fiscal 2014. POMs are annual events in which critical decisions on the budget and investment spending are made. Titley said he believes the 2014 budget is where the first climate-change investments may potentially be made.

“One of the investments we're really going to have to think about in the next several decades is the impact of sea level rise on the Navy's infrastructure,” Titley said. “That includes our ports and piers in the continental United States, but we also need to think about bases we use in conjunction with our partners and allies overseas.”
As an example, Titley mentioned Diego Garcia, a small, low-lying island in the Indian Ocean that hosts a strategic airfield.
“The observations have shown us that through the 20th century, sea level rose by an average of two millimeters per year,” Titley said. “So that means over the course of the century, we had about 20 centimeters, or roughly eight inches, of sea level rise. The sea level rise we've seen in the first 10 years of the new century is already 50 percent greater than the average sea level rise in the 20th century.”
Titley explained that as the oceans get warmer, they expand and take up more space, causing the sea level to rise. In addition, the land-based ice that already is melting -- including mountain glaciers, the Greenland ice field, and even the western Antarctic ice sheet -- will add volume to the ocean.

He acknowledged considerable uncertainty over the time line and extent of sea level rise, but he noted that leading climate scientists believe sea levels could rise as much as six feet by the end of the century.
“How probable is this?” Titley asked. “I'm not really sure right now, but I am sure there are significant consequences. We need to make sure, as time goes by, that we understand it, we have a plan, and we know what it will cost us to execute that plan.
“That's really one of the foundational elements the task force is going to pursue,” he added.
In response to a question on specific infrastructure upgrades, Titley noted that there is no single answer, and said scientists and engineers will need to work together with local communities, taking into account the specifics of every critical location, to determine what types of solutions will be needed.
“That is what our capabilities-based assessments will be tasked to figure out,” he said.

When asked whether naval bases were prepared for stronger and more intense hurricanes, Titley said that the impact a warming climate may have on tropical storm development is controversial and subject to much research. He explained that ocean warming is only one component of hurricane formation, and that other factors such as upper level wind shear may not support increased frequency and intensity.
“What I can tell you,” he said, “is that our regional commanders make sure their bases are prepared for severe hurricanes every year.”

Titley said it’s essential to improve predictive capabilities on a variety of time lines to provide reliable forecasts to decision makers. These predictions need to include weather and ocean forecasts in the near term, as well as climatological forecasts extending decades out, he added.
“In the past, many federal agencies tended to produce their own predictive models,” Titley said. He noted that he is engaging the leadership of other agencies to create partnerships that will ensure that the best minds in the nation are working collectively on solutions. These joint climate models could serve both military and civilian purposes, he said, recognizing that details regarding classification and security would need to be worked out.

“I believe that the time is right, and the leadership in many agencies is right, to work this at a national level,” he said, “to make sure the taxpayer money we put into these predictions give the absolute best return on our collective investment. We owe this to the American people.”
Titley said international partnerships also are important to dealing effectively with potential climate-change challenges, particularly in the Arctic. He mentioned that the Canadian navy had invited the United States to participate this year in its annual Operation Nanook polar exercise. U.S. participants will include a destroyer, a maritime patrol aircraft, and specialized ice diving units.

“This is a tremendous opportunity for several hundred of our sailors and officers to experience operating ships and aircraft well north of the Arctic Circle,” Titley said.
There is also a proposal to share lessons learned with the Danish navy, which has significant experience operating in the Arctic waters around its territory Greenland. In addition, Titley said, the Naval Research Laboratory is working with the Russian navy in the Kara Sea this summer, and there are current discussions with the International Hydrographic Organization to determine how to best work with regional partners in cooperative ocean-surveying operations.
“This is not meant to be all inclusive,” Titley said, “but it is an indication of progress in just the last couple of months towards opportunities to work with our international partners.”
Titley noted some other examples of progress in considering the strategic impact of climate change.
“Recently, the chief of naval operations signed out the Navy's Arctic strategic objectives,” he said, “and this gives everybody in the Navy a common frame of reference to understand what we are trying to achieve.”

He added that the Navy wants to ensure a “safe, stable, and secure Arctic.”
Titley said the main goal of Task Force Climate Change is to ensure the Navy is not taken by strategic surprise, and he expressed satisfaction that climate change is being considered in strategic war games and limited objective experiments. He described these as “thinking exercises” that examine various strategic scenarios to determine how to handle them, to evaluate whether the assets are available to handle them, and to identify shortfalls.

“Nobody knows what the future will entail,” Titley said, “but if you run a range of scenarios, and you see that there are common capabilities and capacities that you would need to answer those scenarios, then you can really inform a future budget debate.”


Biographies:
Navy Rear Adm. David W. Titley
Related Sites:

"DoD Live" Bloggers Roundtable
205. Inyo
not just global warming - watershed degradation and the spread of impervious substrates as well. In this case just about everything was impervious due to all the rain and saturation but more wetlands and flood plains would have meant less flooding.

We are throwing so many straws at the camel, how do we even know which one to point at?
Quoting Inyo:
not just global warming - watershed degradation and the spread of impervious substrates as well. In this case just about everything was impervious due to all the rain and saturation but more wetlands and flood plains would have meant less flooding.

We are throwing so many straws at the camel, how do we even know which one to point at?


I doubt that the camel will care which straw broke its back. The camel will care that we keep throwing straw on its back.
History channel had show on last night, about Fort Knox. Possible it's half empty and might not even have gold in it. This one rich guy talked about it, used to work there and now has gone off the grid. Says our lives are going to be living like the early 1900s. Expect fallout from economic crash on the way.

Talking about AGW....going to be moot
Link


Lovejoy is getting bright...
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TROPICAL STORM WASHI (T1121)
3:00 AM JST December 16 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon East Of Mindanao

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Washi (1000 hPa) located at 7.5N 129.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 16 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 8.9N 124.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 9.4N 118.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 9.2N 113.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting RitaEvac:
History channel had show on last night, about Fort Knox. Possible it's half empty and might not even have gold in it. This one rich guy talked about it, used to work there and now has gone off the grid. Says our lives are going to be living like the early 1900s. Expect fallout from economic crash on the way.

Talking about AGW....going to be moot


Should that happen, it will be while also trying to adapt to AGW.

We went off the gold standard in 1973.
NASA - LARGE COMET TO HIT THE SUN 15/16TH DECEMBER 2011 (HD)

Large Comet Nearing Sun :
The large comet named Lovejoy is getting closer to the Sun on Thursday and is expected to burn up later today.

Comet Lovejoy approaching the Sun (Thursday - Latest) - Lasco



www.solarham.com
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Should that happen, it will be while also trying to adapt to AGW.

We went off the gold standard in 1973.
With gold at $1800.00 an ounce, maybe we should make it standard...I bet there is still pleny of gold in Fort Knox.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like he's going to be a WASH OUT for the islands.Lolol.
lololololol!
Hi over there. Windstorm "Joachim" is approaching France and Germany, a nice Pre-Christmas present from the tropics off your coast! South Germany up to my region near Frankfurt are on (full) alert. I've just prepared my balcony. Tomorrow I'll tell you what has happened. Have a nice evening, Barbara





Solar Update:

Solar activity was at higher than normal levels with over twenty (20) C-Class flares being detected around departing Sunspot 1367. This region is now fully behind the western limb and out of direct Earth view. The Solar X-Rays are quiet and in the B-Class range. The remaining Sunspot regions 1374, 1375, 1376 and 1377 are stable.

Watch the video below to see the activity surrounding Sunspot 1367 as captured by STEREO Ahead. Also in the movie is Comet Lovejoy approaching.

216. barbamz


Good Luck,be safe and take care over there.


Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Hello from Texas, i have 2 ponds behind my backyard, my house backs up to a very nice and big farm. These ponds have been bone dry for at least the past 6 months. Had a good rain this morning and water is finally going into these ponds. It is such a positive feeling for me. If we get some heavy rains our ground is finally saturated and Lake levels will go up.


That's great news! Let it keep comin'!  =)
some deep convection overtop the LLCC, 1 lil black dot
gold took a beating yesterday...down to $1565....I, however, passed on buying @ $675...
This comet into the sun might be the trigger affect for the sun to do some crazy things and peak on Dec. 21st 2012
Quoting Patrap:
216. barbamz


Good Luck,be safe and take care over there.



Thanks, Pat. "We will overcome" anyway, somehow. Probably it won't be too catastrophic this time, but you never know with such sort of storms. All the best to you.
Pat, that loop of the sun is awesome, and it almost looks as if it could miss the sun, tailing to the left in that loop
Quoting presslord:
gold took a beating yesterday...down to $1565....I, however, passed on buying @ $675...
Geez...I have been out of touch...I sold some gold, and I was satisfied with the return. Hope your are doing well Press.

Flotsam From Japanese Tsunami Reaches West Coast

by The Associated Press

Link
Quoting partylight:
Link


Lovejoy is getting bright...


Thanks for the link. Here's a cropped closer up view of the image from the NASA site.
LOVEJOY...

credit: http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/c3/1 024/latest.html

Add: Oops, I didn't see Patrap's at 212. but I'll leave this here anyway.
Quoting hydrus:
Geez...I have been out of touch...I sold some gold, and I was satisfied with the return. Hope your are doing well Press.


yes...my investment philosophy has always been "Buy high...sell low"

all is well here...hope so with you, too...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.htm l
A real jet shooter!
(Sorry, if the video won't work. I'm still too silly to work it out.)
Link
Quoting RitaEvac:
This comet into the sun might be the trigger affect for the sun to do some crazy things and peak on Dec. 21st 2012
I think the sun/comet collision would be more akin to throwing a hand grenade into an erupting volcano.. might make some splatter but nothing lasting more than a couple of seconds at most... IMHO
Quoting hydrus:
lololololol!
Sorry I couldn't help myself.I couldn't help but make a joke out of Washi's name.And now that I think about it...Washi would make a good nickname for me.
Quoting JNCali:
I think the sun/comet collision would be more akin to throwing a hand grenade into an erupting volcano.. might make some splatter but nothing lasting more than a couple of seconds at most... IMHO


Never, ever throw anything into a Sun in the galaxy. no matter how small, the solar system relies on this star
Quoting barbamz:
Hi over there. Windstorm "Joachim" is approaching France and Germany, a nice Pre-Christmas present from the tropics off your coast! South Germany up to my region near Frankfurt are on (full) alert. I've just prepared my balcony. Tomorrow I'll tell you what has happened. Have a nice evening, Barbara







Great timing! Thanks for the heads up, Barbara. I'm supposed to fly to Stuttgart tomorrow. First, I was worried about not getting out of London because for the weekend the entire Southern half of the UK was under a high wind warning earlier this week. Now that this was changed into a rain and snow watch, I have to worry about landing in Stuttgart. eek! Fingers crossed that it'll be alright.

The German Met Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) has the entire state of Baden-Württemberg in red, forecasting first gusts from 50-60 mph and later even 70 mph, not funny!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sorry I couldn't help myself.I couldn't help but make a joke out of Washi's name.And now that I think about it...Washi would make a good nickname for me.


Is or isn't the WPac TS going to make landfall? It has been very wishy/Washi with its wobbling...
ENSO models

Quite a conveyor belt there barbamz.
Came across this earlier. This goes to show you that the earth is warming and the climate is changing.

Notice the precip trends for the NE US and the Midwest in the above graph. If these trends continue then these big flooding disasters will only get worse over the coming years due to more water vapor being ejected into the jet stream especially across the midwest and Northeast US.
I make maps everyday for my work, and I lie on those maps everyday. In fact in college, there is a book titled "How to Lie with Maps" it's a common thing. Don't believe maps, people can tweek and make it to fit our needs for whatever the project is, TRUST me.

Quoting taistelutipu:


Great timing! Thanks for the heads up, Barbara. I'm supposed to fly to Stuttgart tomorrow. First, I was worried about not getting out of London because for the weekend the entire Southern half of the UK was under a high wind warning earlier this week. Now that this was changed into a rain and snow watch, I have to worry about landing in Stuttgart. eek! Fingers crossed that it'll be alright.

The German Met Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) has the entire state of Baden-Wrttemberg in red, forecasting first gusts from 50-60 mph and later even 70 mph, not funny!


You poor one, taistelutipu (always like your contributions btw)! I wish you all the best!!!
Here you can see the stuff roaring in:
http://www.meteo60.fr/sat_ir.php

Update Deutscher Wetterdienst. Bavaria in red, too.
People look at maps as if they're satellite images, they're not. Man made them. Never trust em.
Quoting RitaEvac:
People look at maps as if they're satellite images, they're not. Man made them. Never trust em.


?

Satellite images are man made too.
Quoting RitaEvac:
People look at maps as if they're satellite images, they're not. Man made them. Never trust em.


RitaEvac Global Warming is occuring whether we like it or not.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Is or isn't the WPac TS going to make landfall? It has been very wishy/Washi with its wobbling...
Lolol.
Quoting petewxwatcher:


?

Satellite images are man made too.


Che, che, che, check yo self. Those are live images son, and aint no map, it's real world
Quoting StormTracker2K:


RitaEvac Global Warming is occuring weather we like it or not.


weather.....of course it's weather
whether.....if you really know what you're saying
Well they tell us that we are going to have very stormy conditions over the entire length of the English Channel, tonight into tomorrow, with this latest storm making a mess of northern Europe, rather than the UK, we are only going to get snow showers!!
In the world of the wildest imaginations? Can You imagine if Florida had 4 of these storm things in as many weeks! What kind of damage and moaning would descend on the ether? There's only a handful of us over here and we sure are glad we are in contact with all that the other members have to offer in the world.
We hope that our cousins in northern Europe fair well and that they also get a fair amount of rain/snow on their southern regions as the river Danube is about to more or less dry up in some places.
Keep us posted, BARBAMZ, we really do value your observations.
Lee's TCR is out. Link Was actually a subtropical storm at landfall and at peak intensity....
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
TROPICAL STORM WASHI (T1121)
6:00 AM JST December 16 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon East Of Mindanao

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Washi (1000 hPa) located at 7.5N 128.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 16 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 8.7N 122.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 9.4N 118.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 9.2N 113.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Look at the evaperation rates!

Quoting RitaEvac:


weather.....of course it's weather
whether.....if you really know what you're saying


Thanks!
252. DDR
Not only is the heavy precip event in the mid latitudes on the increase but here in the tropics also and it has been more evident over the past decade.
Lee's TCR suggests that he was a 1 billion dollar disaster.

"According to the Property Claim Services of the Insurance Services Office, Inc., Lee
produced an estimated $315 million in insured losses in the United States. Damage estimates
have not been yet been obtained for individual states and it is likely that this figure includes
damage from tornadoes after Lee became an extratropical cyclone. Media reports indicate the
flooding from the remnants of Lee produced more than one billion dollars in damage in the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast United States."
So how much rain will TX get...
Quoting RitaEvac:
So how much rain will TX get...


Quoting PlazaRed:
Well they tell us that we are going to have very stormy conditions over the entire length of the English Channel, tonight into tomorrow, with this latest storm making a mess of northern Europe, rather than the UK, we are only going to get snow showers!!
In the world of the wildest imaginations? Can You imagine if Florida had 4 of these storm things in as many weeks! What kind of damage and moaning would descend on the ether? There's only a handful of us over here and we sure are glad we are in contact with all that the other members have to offer in the world.
We hope that our cousins in northern Europe fair well and that they also get a fair amount of rain/snow on their southern regions as the river Danube is about to more or less dry up in some places.
Keep us posted, BARBANZ, we really do value your observations.


Nice, nice PlazaRed, I'll do my best though I'm just a lay observer. We are few Europeans over here, but that's just fine (there are enough elsewhere :)
I'm very curious what will come out of this storm event. It's not only a tropical jet of warm moisture, but also a cyclogenesis with a mixture of cold air and dry air intrusion which is going to happen the next hours right over our heads. Will mean: first rain and very strong winds, then strong winds with cold air and snow. Won't happen in Florida!
But I've go to bed now and follow the real thing in the morning.
Lots of greetings to all of you, Barbara

Development of pressure:
http://www.meteo60.fr/obs_pression.php

You imagine if Florida had 4 of these storm things in as many weeks! What kind of damage and moaning would descend on the ether?


What was 2005? Chopped liver?
255, that's a map spitted out by models, can't be trusted.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
You imagine if Florida had 4 of these storm things in as many weeks! What kind of damage and moaning would descend on the ether?


What was 2005? Chopped liver?


True, and peace, peace; no competition in desaster. I won't like to see a tropical "2005" over my place, really!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
You imagine if Florida had 4 of these storm things in as many weeks! What kind of damage and moaning would descend on the ether?


What was 2005? Chopped liver?

I wasn't around in 2005 but I meant that line as a sort of probe as to what might be able to happen; after almost everybody was having such a near miss summer this year over in the Gulf region.
Just for the records: Pressure forecast for Germany
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
You imagine if Florida had 4 of these storm things in as many weeks! What kind of damage and moaning would descend on the ether?


What was 2005? Chopped liver?


2004 was liverwurst then.
Quoting barbamz:
Just for the records: Pressure forecast for Germany


Hey, you are not supposed to get those over there. Keep us informed. (Wie geht's, meine Freundin?)
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, you are not supposed to get those over there. Keep us informed. (Wie geht's, meine Freundin?)


Es geht mir (immer noch) sehr gut, Grothar, danke! In German weatherblogs there is a vivid discussion right now whether we are going to see something very unusual. But it's hard to predict. It's a nowcast thing. In the moment it's still very quiet outside (rain may start soon), so I have to take advantage of it and snore a bit. Unfortunately there is a office conference in the morning ...
Have a good time! Barb
These storms are coming one after the other.


Not wanting to upset anybody, or the "apple cart" so to speak but with this proposed global warming thing but then maybe one of the side effects will be a lot more of these winter storms dropping into the 50s/40s latitudes.
I for one am very interested in this kind of thing as its damaging effects on Europe will possibly be financially catastrophic, possibly it will become our version of hurricanes in the near future.
Just a casual observation and its far too early to speculate but its also only 15th of December in the northern winter season!
Quoting Grothar:
The next storm shows up well on the shortwave I.R.too..
The Southern Philippines about to take a little hit..They get a few over there.
Just a train of thought:-
Early to say it but if we achieve a state of strong winter storms in the the eastern northern Atlantic in parallel with the North Easters of the US then we have a dual system of destruction attacking both sides of the north Atlantic.
We have had a decade or more of relative calm on our side of the Atlantic but that may be drawing to a close.
Then again I could be wrong, it won't be the first time.
TCR of Lee out, new change is that Lee actually devolved into a sub-tropical storm before landfall, hence its ACE goes down.
Link

It appears Irene's report is due tomorrow according to the NHC.
Global warming is a fraud, invented by Al Gore and other low lives like him. Every season and every year is different.
Looking forward to the Irene report.
Large Comet Nearing Sun :
The large comet named Lovejoy is now very close to the Sun and is expected to burn up within the next couple of hours. In the latest STEREO Behind COR2 image below, the Comet is behind the black disk which blocks the glare of the Sun. Click HERE for the latest SOHO website updates and Click HERE for the latest movie.

Comet very close to the Sun (Thursday) - STEREO Behind COR2



www.solarham.com
Ahhh...Come on....

Quoting Grothar:
These storms are coming one after the other.


A positive NAO will do that to you. The stronger pressure difference means stronger storms.

Quoting barbamz:
Just for the records: Pressure forecast for Germany
Quite the storm. Also worth noting that it will be intensifying as it passes through France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and Germany.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Ahhh...Come on....




Boring. I mean the chart, not you.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Quite the storm. Also worth noting that it will be intensifying as it passes through France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and Germany.


I noticed that on the GFS. Looks like it is going to take a sudden drop soon. That is the area where I lived. We didn't really ever get storms like that over there. Very unusual.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Ahhh...Come on....


I don't know about you, but I would enjoy being there right now.
There are now 371 Giorni day's until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your evening.
Quoting Grothar:


I noticed that on the GFS. Looks like it is going to take a sudden drop soon. That is the area where I lived. We didn't really ever get storms like that over there. Very unusual.
Indeed. Model runs have been trending more intense too, which isn't good. How are you doing though, Gro? I haven't been able to talk to you in forever since my posts had been hidden by the blog filter.
Updated.

Quoting Patrap:
There are now 371 Giorni day's until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your evening.




is there a point too this?? and why you are saying this evere day ?
This isn't 45mph. More like 60mph.
Comet Lovejoy approaching the Sun (Latest Update) - Lasco C3



www.solarham.com
Quoting TomTaylor:
Indeed. Model runs have been trending more intense too, which isn't good. How are you doing though, Gro? I haven't been able to talk to you in forever since my posts had been hidden by the blog filter.


Whose blog filter?
WP272011 - Tropical Storm WASHI

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery/Loop

..click image for Loop


Quoting Grothar:


Whose blog filter?


Last spring TampaSpin said he was gonna minus every comment TomTaylor ever made. He hasn't let up since. He keeps minusing TomTaylor so Tom is in the very worst category.
Quoting Grothar:


Whose blog filter?
Someone had used a script to literally minus my posts thousands of times over, causing the filter to hide my posts because of how negative my reputation had become. Fortunately, I contacted Jeff and he managed to fix the problem (for now anyway) so now you can see my posts again without having to click the "show" button. This had also occurred to several other members, including Neapolitan.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TROPICAL STORM WASHI (T1121)
9:00 AM JST December 16 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon East Of Mindanao

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Washi (1000 hPa) located at 7.5N 128.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 8.7N 122.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 9.1N 117.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 9.1N 113.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Additional Information
======================

Tropical Storm will move the same speed and move westward for the next 72 hours

Tropical storm will keep present intensity for the next 24 hours

Final Initial Dvorak will be T2.5 after 24 hours
Quoting TomTaylor:
Someone had used a script to literally minus my posts thousands of times over, causing the filter to hide my posts because of how negative my reputation had become. Fortunately, I contacted Jeff and he managed to fix the problem (for now anyway) so now you can see my posts again without having to click the "show" button. This had also occurred to several other members, including Neapolitan.


I thought my posts were being removed because they were boring.
Look at the sky; here comes the birds; here comes the apples.... Here comes the satellites... what else is coming?

Apples fall from the sky over Coventry
Link
Stunned motorists were forced to brake sharply to avoid the falling fruit, believed to be swept up by a vortex caused by freak weather conditions in Coventry.

Donna Bowater By Donna Bowater 3:18PM GMT 14 Dec 2011

An avalanche of more than 100 apples rained down over a main road in Keresley, Coventry on Monday night.
The street was left littered with apples after they pelted car windscreens and bonnets just after rush-hour.
The bizarre downpour may have been caused by a current of air that lifted the fruit from a garden or orchard, releasing it over the junction of Keresley Road and Kelmscote Road.

Bloomfield Highway Dotted With Dead Birds
By Ryan Boetel / The Daily Times on Fri, Dec 9, 2011 at 9:20 am
Link
BLOOMFIELD %u2014 Even Edgar Allan Poe may have gasped at the morbidity along Bloomfield Highway on Thursday.
At lunchtime on Thursday, 40 to 50 dead European starlings were scattered in a 50-foot circle across U.S. 64 in Bloomfield. Some were lying on their backs with their small feet sticking up in the air, and at least one of them was missing its head.

About 30 dead birds were north of the highway just east of Murph%u2019s Complete Automotive Service, at 6658 U.S. Highway 64. About 20 additional piles of flattened feathers were on the highway.
Quoting Grothar:


I thought my posts were being removed because they were boring.


i was on here and i wasnt signed in, my posts are covered from view. frickin stupid, hiding weather information on a weather site, is just plain lame. alot of helpful members on here are hidden because of some people who have no idea how to forgive.

edited: NEVERMIND. not hidden anymo
Quoting Grothar:


I thought my posts were being removed because they were boring.


I minused as many as I could. The Republican Debate is on Fox. Need a few good laughs.
Quoting petewxwatcher:


Last spring TampaSpin said he was gonna minus every comment TomTaylor ever made. He hasn't let up since. He keeps minusing TomTaylor so Tom is in the very worst category.


I know Tim. He is a good guy. He would never do that.
Quoting Grothar:


I thought my posts were being removed because they were boring.
No...your posts are never boring.
.
Don't feel bad....I had a post not removed but erased for violating community standards just the other day. You went out of your way to plus that post of mine yourself, along with 34 other members....yet, it's gone. Go figure.
.

Dead on this time
Quoting SPLbeater:


i was on here and i wasnt signed in, my posts are covered from view. frickin stupid, hiding weather information on a weather site, is just plain lame. alot of helpful members on here are hidden because of some people who have no idea how to forgive.
Maybe if you followed the rules (i.e., not cussing, continually discussing religion, or trying to recruit people to help you with your website) and you were a little less stubborn and ignorant (i.e., denying global warming with no evidence or claiming that everything in the bible is true and real) your posts wouldn't be hidden.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
No...your posts are never boring.
.
Don't feel bad....I had a post not removed but erased for violating community standards just the other day. You went out of your way to plus that post of mine yourself, along with 34 other members....yet, it's gone. Go figure.
.



Your post was funny. I plused it also. But the revised version of it that someone else posted was just plain mean.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I know Tim. He is a good guy. He would never do that.


He did. Got a ban for a couple of days too for that spat. And TomTaylor has never been visible since.
Quoting Grothar:


I thought my posts were being removed because they were boring.
lol no

for being one of the older members on the blog, you have one of the more lively personalities.
Quoting petewxwatcher:


He did. Got a ban for a couple of days too for that spat. And TomTaylor has never been visible since.
I remember Tampa saying that, but I doubt he was the one behind it.

I really don't want to point fingers since I truly do not know who did it.
.
.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
No...your posts are never boring.
.
Don't feel bad....I had a post not removed but erased for violating community standards just the other day. You went out of your way to plus that post of mine yourself, along with 34 other members....yet, it's gone. Go figure.
.



I know, it was funny, too! I have never seen you insult anyone on here, except me that is.
Quoting TomTaylor:
lol no

for being one of the older members on the blog, you have one of the more lively personalities.



OLDER??? and you expect a plus for that?????
Quoting bappit:
.


Come on bappit, tell us what you are REALLY feeling.
Quoting TomTaylor:
lol no

for being one of the older members on the blog, you have one of the more lively personalities.


you mean..."by far the oldest member"
Quoting presslord:


you mean..."by far the oldest member"
True.
It was Grothar who first coined the term "blog".
Before that, it was known as "Og", and made half the folks turn around when you mentioned it.
Does anybody ever wonder if hurricanes like Floyd will ever be upgraded to Category 5 intensity? I mean, the hurricane had the evidence:



Quoting Grothar:



OLDER??? and you expect a plus for that?????
did you take your pills yet today old man?
Quoting presslord:


you mean..."by far the oldest member"


That would be "eldest" to you!
Quoting presslord:


you mean..."by far the oldest member"

Old members are very fine, imo.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

Old members are very fine, imo.


another thing i havnt learned from the wunder family; what does IMO stand for?
Quoting CosmicEvents:
True.
It was Grothar who first coined the term "blog".
Before that, it was known as "Og", and made half the folks turn around when you mentioned it.


Yes, and I also coined the term 'Twit'.
Quoting Grothar:


That would be "eldest" to you!


I stand corrected, sir! How the heck is ya?!?!
Quoting SPLbeater:


another thing i havnt learned from the wunder family; what does IMO stand for?

In my opinion.
Quoting SPLbeater:


another thing i havnt learned from the wunder family; what does IMO stand for?

in my opinion.

imho= in my humble opinion.
Quoting presslord:


I stand corrected, sir! How the heck is ya?!?!


Old, press. How you doing? Been watching the weather in Europe. Very strange, indeed. We never got storms like these very often. Some in the North Sea could be bad, but these are very odd and getting more powerful.
Quoting SPLbeater:


another thing i havnt learned from the wunder family; what does IMO stand for?


I think it means I M Old.
Quoting Grothar:


Old, press. How you doing? Been watching the weather in Europe. Very strange, indeed. We never got storms like these very often. Some in the North Sea could be bad, but these are very odd and getting more powerful.


feelin' pretty old myself....I think my daughter has found The One...and I'm dealing with not being the most important man in her life anymore...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

In my opinion.


Who woke you up?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

In my opinion.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

in my opinion.

imho= in my humble opinion.


thanks guys :D cant learn if i dont ask, lol
Quoting presslord:


feelin' pretty old myself....I think my daughter has found The One...and I'm dealing with not being the most important man in her life anymore...

Console yourself that she's female:
Have a girl and she's a daughter for life; a son is yours until he takes a wife.
Quoting Grothar:


Who woke you up?

Aren't you supposed to be in bed?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Aren't you supposed to be in bed?



LOL
did you guys no that TS LEE did the same thing TS Allison did in 2001 and be came a STS at some point of its life



so the next ? is will TS LEE get its name retired
Anyone watching the Republican debate? I'm watching the live feed through the BBC (probably a nice left bias being shown). I must admit, most republicans make no sense at all. Ron Paul seems to make the most sense of them all, but he is more of an independent than an actual conservative.

I'm sorry, but if I weren't ideologically opposed to the republicans, and I didn't support the democrats at all (or if I was old enough to vote and even lived in the US), I would go independent next year. The republicans don't seem to care about anyone but the people who financially support them this year..they don't even show any interest in anything but (incorrect) foreign politics and Obama bashing. I mean really!? The terrorists are attacking the US because the US is free, not because you guys stopped funding them...? *sigh*

I kinda wish that the US wasn't the heart of the world so this stupidity wouldn't actually matter to anyone outside of the US. I really hope that someone who can actually run a country is able to get a majority in the US government next year.

Sorry if I offended someone, but really, from a foreigner looking in, it's pretty sad, especially when I compare our conservatives to yours. Thankfully Sarah Palin isn't in it this year. XD
Hey all tropic junkies and bored bloggers and...well..anybody lol.



Link tO mY nEw BlOg
Quoting yqt1001:
Anyone watching the Republican debate? I'm watching the live feed through the BBC (probably a nice left bias being shown). I must admit, most republicans make no sense at all. Ron Paul seems to make the most sense of them all, but he is more of an independent than an actual conservative.

I'm sorry, but if I weren't ideologically opposed to the republicans, and I didn't support the democrats at all (or if I was old enough to vote and even lived in the US), I would go independent next year. The republicans don't seem to care about anyone but the people who financially support them this year..they don't even show any interest in anything but (incorrect) foreign politics and Obama bashing. I mean really!? The terrorists are attacking the US because the US is free, not because you guys stopped funding them...? *sigh*

I kinda wish that the US wasn't the heart of the world so this stupidity wouldn't actually matter to anyone outside of the US. I really hope that someone who can actually run a country is able to get a majority in the US government next year.

Sorry if I offended someone, but really, from a foreigner looking in, it's pretty sad, especially when I compare our conservatives to yours. Thankfully Sarah Palin isn't in it this year. XD
The name Sarah Palin should be illegal to say in the U.S."I can see Russia from my house".Pfffff.Yeah.Just like I can see Bermuda from my house over 1000 freakin miles away from me.
Quoting presslord:


feelin' pretty old myself....I think my daughter has found The One...and I'm dealing with not being the most important man in her life anymore...


It happens, press. But it gets better, trust me.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Aren't you supposed to be in bed?


You're not the boss of me. :) Why don't you post some images of the storm in Europe. I can't seem to find any good ones. Make yourself useful.
Quoting SPLbeater:


thanks guys :D cant learn if i dont ask, lol


DMIOP
Quoting Grothar:


You're not the boss of me. :) Why don't you post some images of the storm in Europe. I can't seem to find any good ones. Make yourself useful.
Okay...Old Maaan.Lol.That was from Spongebob. :)
Crap another rain storm for us next week.Where's the cold weather when you need it?.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Okay...Old Maaan.Lol.That was from Spongebob. :)


All I know is that I was saying it in the 1940's, so maybe Spongebob stole it from us. That is the advantage one has being old. We derive great enjoyment when the younger generation thinks they have discovered something new, which in reality, is something that is already old. But that is the way of the world. I am sure the generation preceding me felt the same. It is the continuity of culture; the fabric which ties us together as a civilization.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Crap another rain storm for us next week.Where's the cold weather when you need it?.

Antarctica.
Philippine Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TROPICAL STORM SENDONG (WASHI)
11:00 AM PhST December 16 2011
=================================

Tropical Storm "SENDONG" has slightly intensified as it moves toward Davao Oriental

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Sendong located at 7.5°N 127.8°E or 180 km east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Visayas region
=============
1.Southern Leyte
2.Bohol
3.Southern Cebu
4.Southern Negros
5.Siquijor Island

Mindanao region
==============
1.Surigao Del Norte
2.Siargao Island
3.Surigao Del Sur
4.Dinagat Province
5.Agusan Provinces
6.Davao del Norte
7.Davao Oriental
8.Samal Island
9.Lanao Provinces
10.Misamis Provinces
11.Zamboanga Provinces
12.North Cotabato
13.Compostela Valley
14.Bukidnon
15.Camiguin
16.Maguindanao

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon region
============
1.Palawan
2.Cuyo Island

Visayas region
=============
1.Eastern Samar
2.Western Samar
3.Northern Leyte
4.Northern Cebu
5.Northern Negros
6.Iloilo
7.Capiz
8.Antique
9.Aklan
10.Guimaras Province

Mindanao region
==============
1.Davao Del Sur
2.Sultan Kudarat
3.South Cotabato
4.Sarangani Province
5.Basilan Province

Additional Information
========================


Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

Mining operators and small scale miners are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides and take necessary precautionary measures.

Fishing boats and other small sea crafts are advised not to venture out into the sea.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today and the hourly updates.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
TROPICAL STORM WASHI (T1121)
12:00 PM JST December 16 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon East Of Mindanao

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Washi (1000 hPa) located at 7.7N 127.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 8.7N 122.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 9.1N 117.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 9.1N 113.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Haven't been on in weeks. And of course, global warming is the topic. I can't wait for 30 years from now when we're talking about the earth freezing over.
Quoting Grothar:


All I know is that I was saying it in the 1940's, so maybe Spongebob stole it from us. That is the advantage one has being old. We derive great enjoyment when the younger generation thinks they have discovered something new, which in reality, is something that is already old. But that is the way of the world. I am sure the generation preceding me felt the same. It is the continuity of culture; the fabric which ties us together as a civilization.
Yeah just like how some of the more recent songs sound as though their from the 80's.And talk about bringing styles back.There trying to bring leg warmers back...Ew.They got on my nerves in the 80's and i don't want to see them again.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Antarctica.
That's where I'm making my next flight to then ;).Opps!!!.Global warming got to it before I did.
347. BtnTx
Quoting jrweatherman:
Haven't been on in weeks. And of course, global warming is the topic. I can't wait for 30 years from now when we're talking about the earth freezing over.
In 1994 The Eagles made a music album "Hell Freezes Over" maybe they were on to something? Or not.
Downgrade continues...

Fitch downgrades world's top banks
From Hussein Saddique, CNN December 16, 2011 -- Updated 0222 GMT (1022 HKT)

New York (CNN) -- The ratings firm Fitch downgraded a cluster of the world's largest banks Thursday, pointing to trading challenges facing international markets.

The banks included Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, as well as Europe's Barclays, Societe Generale and BNP Paribas.

Germany's Deutsche Bank and Switerzland's Credit Suisse were also downgraded.
Quoting Tazmanian:
did you guys no that TS LEE did the same thing TS Allison did in 2001 and be came a STS at some point of its life



so the next ? is will TS LEE get its name retired


It shouldn't be, considering the flooding in the northeast occurred after its demise as a tropical cyclone. That's like retiring an Igor strength hurricane that makes the transition to an extratropical cyclone prior to striking Atlantic Canada. Sure, it might cause damage, but not as a named storm. So why retire it?
"Quoting TampaSpin:



They do a very poor job of that decision making Dr. Masters IMO! You might want to evaluate the process. Just my opinion tho!"


Dr Masters may want to evaluate the people that he has given admin authority to.
Quoting scottiesaunt:
"Quoting TampaSpin:



They do a very poor job of that decision making Dr. Masters IMO! You might want to evaluate the process. Just my opinion tho!"


Dr Masters may want to evaluate the people that he has given admin authority to.


lol, this
355. JLPR2
Rather interesting system just offshore Panama.
Quoting yqt1001:
Anyone watching the Republican debate? I'm watching the live feed through the BBC (probably a nice left bias being shown). I must admit, most republicans make no sense at all. Ron Paul seems to make the most sense of them all, but he is more of an independent than an actual conservative.

I'm sorry, but if I weren't ideologically opposed to the republicans, and I didn't support the democrats at all (or if I was old enough to vote and even lived in the US), I would go independent next year. The republicans don't seem to care about anyone but the people who financially support them this year..they don't even show any interest in anything but (incorrect) foreign politics and Obama bashing. I mean really!? The terrorists are attacking the US because the US is free, not because you guys stopped funding them...? *sigh*

I kinda wish that the US wasn't the heart of the world so this stupidity wouldn't actually matter to anyone outside of the US. I really hope that someone who can actually run a country is able to get a majority in the US government next year.

Sorry if I offended someone, but really, from a foreigner looking in, it's pretty sad, especially when I compare our conservatives to yours. Thankfully Sarah Palin isn't in it this year. XD


I agree Ron Paul is probably the best the Republicans have in terms of making any progress, but he's not electable. The next best is Huntsman, but he has no money and no one knows him either.

As far as the rest of your anti-American rant, exactly who else would you like to see as the world's superpower? China? Russia? The (chuckle) EU? Let's face it, for a country that could turn any other country to glass in minutes, I think we've been pretty restrained. And next time there's a little trouble spot in the world, call France. They'll be glad to help, and we'll have more money to pay off our bills.
Quoting JLPR2:
Rather interesting system just offshore Panama.


I think that thing, in one form or another, has been sitting off Panama for about three weeks. :)
What happened with Agnes? I think she caused almost all her damage by flooding. Did she get retired?
359. JLPR2
Quoting sar2401:


I think that thing, in one form or another, has been sitting off Panama for about three weeks. :)


yeah, the energy has been jumping between the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific for awhile.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Downgrade continues...

Fitch downgrades world's top banks
From Hussein Saddique, CNN December 16, 2011 -- Updated 0222 GMT (1022 HKT)

New York (CNN) -- The ratings firm Fitch downgraded a cluster of the world's largest banks Thursday, pointing to trading challenges facing international markets.

The banks included Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, as well as Europe's Barclays, Societe Generale and BNP Paribas.

Germany's Deutsche Bank and Switerzland's Credit Suisse were also downgraded.


And amazing enough, all those banks are up in the after hours, and all the futures are higher. No one cares about rating agencies any longer. They are always the last one to catch the bus, and everyone already knows how bad things are before they ever issue a rating. They should just close up and save us a lot of money.
Good morning from pressure falling Germany/West Europe!


webcam sky over my place (Mainz near Frankfurt)
Quoting yqt1001:
Anyone watching the Republican debate? I'm watching the live feed through the BBC (probably a nice left bias being shown). I must admit, most republicans make no sense at all. Ron Paul seems to make the most sense of them all, but he is more of an independent than an actual conservative.

I'm sorry, but if I weren't ideologically opposed to the republicans, and I didn't support the democrats at all (or if I was old enough to vote and even lived in the US), I would go independent next year. The republicans don't seem to care about anyone but the people who financially support them this year..they don't even show any interest in anything but (incorrect) foreign politics and Obama bashing. I mean really!? The terrorists are attacking the US because the US is free, not because you guys stopped funding them...? *sigh*

I kinda wish that the US wasn't the heart of the world so this stupidity wouldn't actually matter to anyone outside of the US. I really hope that someone who can actually run a country is able to get a majority in the US government next year.

Sorry if I offended someone, but really, from a foreigner looking in, it's pretty sad, especially when I compare our conservatives to yours. Thankfully Sarah Palin isn't in it this year. XD


Republicans c. 2011 are rather similar to the Tories in 1997-2001. Not in terms of policy (Tories don't go that right wing), but rather the direction of rhetoric - moving to appease their base. Unfortunately for them, the only candidates who could give Obama a run for their money are the same ones the GOP base can't stomach (Romney, for example).

Considering the economy and the immediate future, it might not be a bad election to lose, so to speak.

Beware judging American politics from an European perspective (and vice versa). The spectrum is different as is the qualities that the electorate look for. I found getting an explanation from a moderate Republican that I knew as to why Bush was voted in twice enlightening considering the media and views at the time over here.

Quoting sar2401:


And amazing enough, all those banks are up in the after hours, and all the futures are higher. No one cares about rating agencies any longer. They are always the last one to catch the bus, and everyone already knows how bad things are before they ever issue a rating. They should just close up and save us a lot of money.


Rating agencies still count, otherwise the injured Gallic pride would not be so damaged over the imminent downgrade. Banks work a little different as there is still an expectation of bailout even when they fail, which distorts the credit rating (from shaky, which the financial sector is, to a surefire return as the taxpayer will foot the bill).

Plus, pulling out of the banks now regardless of your investing position is a risky move considering their solvency issues.
--

British-born author, literary critic and journalist Christopher Hitchens has died, aged 62, according to Vanity Fair magazine. Link
--

And the weather, looks like the storm in the Channel now may cause central Northern Europe a problem or two. Looks like the conveyor belt of storms is to stop for a bit.
Quoting Cotillion:


Republicans c. 2011 are rather similar to the Tories in 1997-2001. Not in terms of policy (Tories don't go that right wing), but rather the direction of rhetoric - moving to appease their base. Unfortunately for them, the only candidates who could give Obama a run for their money are the same ones the GOP base can't stomach (Romney, for example).

Considering the economy and the immediate future, it might not be a bad election to lose, so to speak.

Beware judging American politics from an European perspective (and vice versa). The spectrum is different as is the qualities that the electorate look for. I found getting an explanation from a moderate Republican that I knew as to why Bush was voted in twice enlightening considering the media and views at the time over here.

================================================
Of course, a country like the UK, which has been basically socialist since WWII, is not going to have the same kind of conservatives than those in the US. We have watched the UK go from a world power to a second rate nation, and would rather not repeat those same errors. A smart country looks at ideas that don't work elsewhere and don't repeat them. Hopefully, we won't get a repeat of the fabulously successful British NHS.
================================================
Rating agencies still count, otherwise the injured Gallic pride would not be so damaged over the imminent downgrade. Banks work a little different as there is still an expectation of bailout even when they fail, which distorts the credit rating (from shaky, which the financial sector is, to a surefire return as the taxpayer will foot the bill).

Plus, pulling out of the banks now regardless of your investing position is a risky move considering their solvency issues.

===============================================
If rating agencies still do any good, why are all the European markets up this morning and the "injured" banks also all up? We don't need Fitch, Moody's, et al, to tell us what we already know. If they were doing this in 2007, I might have respect for them. Rather, they were handing out AAA ratings like candy, including Lehman Brothers two weeks before it went belly up. How can anyone think these guys know what they're doing? The difference is banks and brokerage house have stopped paying these thieves under the table for good ratings, so now they're pouting and giving every one bad ratings.
================================================
Wow, watch our "eye" in Germany!

source: wetteronline.de
But nothing too serious till now.
mornin fellowes

usually dont sneak a peek during off season

making the call

good day / night to you all
Quoting yqt1001:
Anyone watching the Republican debate? I'm watching the live feed through the BBC (probably a nice left bias being shown). I must admit, most republicans make no sense at all. Ron Paul seems to make the most sense of them all, but he is more of an independent than an actual conservative.

I'm sorry, but if I weren't ideologically opposed to the republicans, and I didn't support the democrats at all (or if I was old enough to vote and even lived in the US), I would go independent next year. The republicans don't seem to care about anyone but the people who financially support them this year..they don't even show any interest in anything but (incorrect) foreign politics and Obama bashing. I mean really!? The terrorists are attacking the US because the US is free, not because you guys stopped funding them...? *sigh*

I kinda wish that the US wasn't the heart of the world so this stupidity wouldn't actually matter to anyone outside of the US. I really hope that someone who can actually run a country is able to get a majority in the US government next year.

Sorry if I offended someone, but really, from a foreigner looking in, it's pretty sad, especially when I compare our conservatives to yours. Thankfully Sarah Palin isn't in it this year. XD



The leftist policies that the EU has persued have worked out so well for you guys. I'd rather our country not follow that model.


"If you're not a liberal when you're 20, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative when you're 40, you have no brain."
Good morning! We're at our highest temp for the day right now as the cool front will follow behind the rain. But it's been great weather the last couple of days. Hope everyone has a wonderful Friday.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The name Sarah Palin should be illegal to say in the U.S."I can see Russia from my house".Pfffff.Yeah.Just like I can see Bermuda from my house over 1000 freakin miles away from me.




You DO realize that the line you're quoting was actually spoken by Tina Fey on "Saturday Night Live" during a skit, don't you?

Since you believe SP's name ought to be illegal,
How dou feel about:
Adolf Hitler
Pol Pot
Idi Amin
Joseph Stalin
Saul Alinsky
Vladimir Lenin
Mao Tse Tung (sp?)

Thnking the fog sounded extra soupy this a.m. I checked to be sure and, yep, it's raining at my house. NOBODY BLINK!  =)


Looks like something maybe trying to brew down here. I wouldn't rule out another Tropical Storm.

Quoting sar2401:
As far as the rest of your anti-American rant, exactly who else would you like to see as the world's superpower? China? Russia? The (chuckle) EU? Let's face it, for a country that could turn any other country to glass in minutes, I think we've been pretty restrained. And next time there's a little trouble spot in the world, call France. They'll be glad to help, and we'll have more money to pay off our bills.


It wasn't really supposed to end up as an anti-America rant, but all Canadians have a tendency to dislike America so I'm sure my speech just reeks of it when I'm done talking. Honestly, for a world power I would like someone who is at least partially functional at doing something. In the long term future I believe only Brazil and India can achieve such heights (maybe Iran if they can pull a pre-war Nazi Germany by legally annexing their neighbors). A world war to see who becomes the next world powers would work well though....
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




You DO realize that the line you're quoting was actually spoken by Tina Fey on "Saturday Night Live" during a skit, don't you?

Since you believe SP's name ought to be illegal,
How dou feel about:
Adolf Hitler
Pol Pot
Idi Amin
Joseph Stalin
Saul Alinsky
Vladimir Lenin
Mao Tse Tung (sp?)


Plus 1,000. Sounds like another extreme, left-wing socialist. Sounds alot like Xyrus2000 and Neapolitan.
This is very interesting! Thanks JLPR for pointing this out.

Link
Looks to be a low north of Panama moving WNW or NW toward C America. However a turn more NW or N could happen in few days as a trough digs in across the western Gulf.
For those who don't know:
Comet Lovejoy survives close encounter with the sun

To the surprise and delight of astronomers, a comet discovered just two weeks ago as it hurtled towards the sun has skimmed the star and re-emerged the other side.
Quoting yqt1001:


It wasn't really supposed to end up as an anti-America rant, but all Canadians have a tendency to dislike America blah blah..


No they don't. Both American and Canadian politics and politicians these days are dislike-able for good reasons, but the people have a lot in common.
Philippine Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
TROPICAL STORM SENDONG (WASHI)
5:00 PM PhST December 16 2011
=================================

Tropical Storm "SENDONG" has made landfall in the vicinity of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Sendong located at 8.2°N 126.1°E or In the vicinity of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Mindanao region
==============
1.Surigao Del Norte
2.Siargao Island
3.Surigao Del Sur
4.Dinagat Province
5.Agusan Provinces
6.Bukidnon
7.Davao del Norte
8.Davao Oriental
9.Compostela Valley
10.Camiguin

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon region
============
1.Palawan

Visayas region
=============
1.Negros
2.Cebu
3.Bohol
4.Southern Leyte
5.Siquijor

Mindanao region
==============
1.Misamis Occidental
2.Lanao del Norte
3.Lanao del Sur
4.North Cotabato
5.Samal Island
6.Maguindanao
7.Davao del Sur
8.Zamboanga Provinces

Additional Information
========================

All signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

Mining operators and small scale miners are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides and take necessary precautionary measures.

Fishing boats and other small sea crafts are advised not to venture out into the sea.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today and the hourly updates.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TROPICAL STORM WASHI (T1121)
21:00 PM JST December 16 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Mindanao

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Washi (998 hPa) located at 8.2N 125.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 9.0N 120.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 9.0N 115.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 9.0N 110.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting barbamz:
Wow, watch our "eye" in Germany!

source: wetteronline.de
But nothing too serious till now.


Holy cow, Barb, that's one heck of a storm. I sure hope your roof stays on. Let us know how you're doing.
The November State of the Climate - Global Analysis report from NOAA is out. A few highlights:

--Despite the cooling effects of an ongoing La Nina, November 2011 was the 12th warmest on record (or, if you find that terminology "deceitful", the 121st coolest);

--November 2011 was the 321st consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average. (The last below average month was February, 1985.)

The cool, blue Pacific is readily evident in this dot map:

uh-oh

...and the La Nina cooling can be seen in these graphs:

uh-oh
Quoting yqt1001:


It wasn't really supposed to end up as an anti-America rant, but all Canadians have a tendency to dislike America so I'm sure my speech just reeks of it when I'm done talking.


That's interesting. I've always liked and respected Canadians. Whenever there's been a war, we've always fought shoulder to shoulder. I've never felt any hostility when I visited Canada. Both country's have some odd-ball politics at time, but I think that's one of the things that links us together.

I suspect some Canadians, especially younger Canadians, may resent the US because Canada is dependent on us for so many things, including protection. In the 50's and 60's, Canada had a very respectable size military for the size of the country. By 2009, the entire armed forces had been run down to a total 67,000, which is less than half the size of the RCAF in 1965. I'm happy to see the current government beginning to build the force strength up again and revert to the tradional names for the Navy, Army, and Air Force, instead of that ridiculous "Forces Canada" name that they've been stuck with since 1964. So, I don't know if what you say about Canadians is true in general but I sure like and respect Canadians...well, except for the occasional Alberta Clipper you guys send down our way. :)
Quoting yqt1001:


In the long term future I believe only Brazil and India can achieve such heights (maybe Iran if they can pull a pre-war Nazi Germany by legally annexing their neighbors). A world war to see who becomes the next world powers would work well though....


You believe, in the long-term future, that Brazil, india or (gasp!) Iran can be the next superpower to lead the world? How long do you expect to live? :) As far as a world war to duke it out, ah, no, I don't think so. If you're concerned about the climate and global warming now, a new world war would bring those worries to an end very quickly. Frankly, I'm a lot more worried about a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan in the short run than carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Quoting RitaEvac:
I make maps everyday for my work, and I lie on those maps everyday. In fact in college, there is a book titled "How to Lie with Maps" it's a common thing. Don't believe maps, people can tweek and make it to fit our needs for whatever the project is, TRUST me.



I'm agreeing with you there. For example, look at the main post statement:

"...Had this event occurred 40 years ago, before global warming added an extra 4% moisture to the atmosphere, the Susquehanna flood would have likely stayed within the city's flood walls..."

and realize that those final flood walls were completed in 1943. One could say that, if this flood had occured 68 years ago, the flooding would have been much worse (there would have been no flood walls at all).

And one thing not shown on that annotated map of Binghampton above is the location of the flood walls.

Look here to see the report on the Binghampton flood project (especially page 6).

It shows where the flood walls were put in, and which areas are "protected". To me, it looks like those areas numbered 7, 8, 9 and 10 are "within" the walls, while those labelled 2, 3, 4 and 5 were not.

I 'd like to see pictures of the flood walls that were overtopped or breached around that school (McArthur Elementary, which suffered major damage).

For that matter, I'd like to know if that school was there 40 years ago.

And, look at the legend. The green areas were NO DAMAGE. Take that green out, and look at it again.
There now 370 Giorni Day's left until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Friday.

Washi is over land and strengthening
Friends flight from Berlin to Cairo was canceled, have to assume it was due to the storm. Been rain-snowing here all day. I guess its get worse?
So it's been awhile. ;-)

Rain falls across Southeast Texas



December 16, 2011 8:55 AM

SOUTHEAST TEXAS- Rain is falling across Southeast Texas. leading to a number of accidents but no reported serious injuries Friday morning.
A jackknifed 18 wheeler near Winnie and another truck accident in Orange County have caused traffic delays.
There's a 30% chance of rain Friday. High temperatures will be in the mid 60's.
No rain is in the forecast this weekend. Highs will reach the mid 50's Saturday and low 60's Sunday.
Our forecast calls for a 20% chance of rain Monday and a 60% chance of rain Tuesday.


Quoting RitaEvac:
I make maps everyday for my work, and I lie on those maps everyday. In fact in college, there is a book titled "How to Lie with Maps" it's a common thing. Don't believe maps, people can tweek and make it to fit our needs for whatever the project is, TRUST me.



"I lie on those maps everyday" and "TRUST me"

?????
Once again apologies for the messed up post. WU's becoming quite the box of chocolates for me these days.  :)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
So it's been awhile. ;-)

Rain falls across Southeast Texas



December 16, 2011 8:55 AM

SOUTHEAST TEXAS- Rain is falling across Southeast Texas. leading to a number of accidents but no reported serious injuries Friday morning.
A jackknifed 18 wheeler near Winnie and another truck accident in Orange County have caused traffic delays.
There's a 30% chance of rain Friday. High temperatures will be in the mid 60's.
No rain is in the forecast this weekend. Highs will reach the mid 50's Saturday and low 60's Sunday.
Our forecast calls for a 20% chance of rain Monday and a 60% chance of rain Tuesday.




good to hear your getting some rain down there


Intensity raised to 50 knots....JTWC getting data i aint, lol
Very pronounced twist in the extreme S.W.Caribbean Sea..
Thanks SPL. :)  I'd quote ya but goodness knows what would happen then. Lol.
One can MODIFY a post by simply using the feature on every comment that you post.

Preview is a good thing as well as its "under" the comment box below.
Modify and Preview are on vacation too. Ah well I'll do my best. :)
Quoting sar2401:


Holy cow, Barb, that's one heck of a storm. I sure hope your roof stays on. Let us know how you're doing.


Good evening from Germany. You see, we luckily still are alive and yes, I'm still protected by my roof :)

It has been a very interesting day, weatherwise, but not catastrophic so far. Regionally very different because of the complicated structure of storm "Joachim": warm and humid frontside, cold arctic and dry backside which right now is rushing in (temps are strongly falling).

So there has been some very strong and lasting rain and some flooding, quite a lot of snow in certain regions, some wind damage and accidents, some closed schools, christmas markets and traffic issues. In Mainz nothing severe seems to have happened, but tomorrow the newspapers will tell the whole story.

The pressure has been very low. In my place unusual 972 hpa, in the "eye" more to the north I think 965 hpa had been measured. And it's not over yet. In the east of Germany things are still developing, and I as well can still hear some howling around my house, huuu, huuu ...

Greetings to all of you! Barbara



Edit/Addition: I've learned on the German weatherblogs that Joachim is a typical "Shapiro-Keyser-Cyclone". I've found the following explanation in English:

"The Shapiro-Keyser cyclone model is named after the authors of the study that first presented this conceptual model of the frontal structure in some marine cyclones. As with the Norwegian cyclone model, an incipient cyclone develops cold and warm fronts, but in this case, the cold front moves roughly perpendicular to the warm front such that the fronts never meet, the so-called 'T-bone'. Also, a weakness appears along the poleward portion of the cold front near the low center, the so-called 'frontal fracture' and a back-bent front forms behind the low center. (In the final stage), colder air encircles warmer air near the low center, forming a warm seclusion. Typically, the Shapiro-Keyser cyclone is oblong, elongated east-west along the strong warm front".

Source: http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/98

Edit: Here comes the warm "T-bone". Arts were done by me (I really missed Levi doing some tidbits in preparation of Joachim!)

Quoting SPLbeater:
Washi is over land and strengthening

I wouldn't really say it's over land, It's over an Island so it can still get energy it need to strengthen.
Massive outage as storm batters France

A STORM has battered north-western France, leaving hundreds of thousands without power, disrupting rail traffic and grounding a ship that spilled oil off the coast of Brittany.

There were no immediate reports of serious injuries or significant damage as storm Joachim moved further inland to Switzerland and Germany.

Interior Minister Claude Gueant said France had escaped largely unscathed from the storm.

"It seems there have been no victims," he said, adding that "a certain number" of people living in low-lying areas in Brittany had been evacuated because of the storm.

Officials said 400,000 homes had lost electricity, mainly in the west of the country. By mid-day, the number of homes without electricity had fallen to 330,000 as workers scrambled to restore electricity infrastructure.The storm caused a cargo ship, the TK Bremen flying the Maltese flag, to run aground and spill some oil into the sea off Brittany early today, officials said.

"The level of pollution is limited," said local maritime official Marc Gander, adding that regional authorities were deploying equipment to try and contain the slick and to empty the ship of its 190 tonnes of fuel and 50 tonnes of diesel.

All 19 members of the ship's crew were evacuated by helicopter.

Local prosecutors in Brest said they had opened an investigation into the spill.

Train traffic was disrupted, with more than 15 trains cancelled in central France and significant delays, the French rail authority said.

The storm had little effect on international flights but the strong winds did force some tourist sites to close, including the park at the Chateau de Versailles near Paris and the famed Christmas market in Strasbourg.

The storm was moving its way inland today, with Swiss authorities reporting it caused a train to derail in Switzerland, lightly injuring three people.

"Friday morning a train derailed in the forest near Tramelan," in the northwest of the mountainous country, police said in a statement.

The storm had been battering the area since Thursday night, with gusts of wind of up to 133km/h and waves up to 7m high.

Brest,France Live cam.

401. Barbamz

Sounds like some excitement for your area. Lived in Florsheim for a year in the early 90's. Wife love to shop in Maintz. Hope it doesn't get to rough tomorrow.
Quoting PakaSurvivor:
401. Barbamz

Sounds like some excitement for your area. Lived in Florsheim for a year in the early 90's. Wife love to shop in Maintz. Hope it doesn't get to rough tomorrow.


Nice to hear that, thank you. Flörsheim unfortunately got very severe noise problems with a new runway at Frankfurt Airport, which was opened some weeks ago.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I wouldn't really say it's over land, It's over an Island so it can still get energy it need to strengthen.


was completely over when i posted dat. its not over land much now
Philippine Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
TROPICAL STORM SENDONG (WASHI)
11:00 PM PhST December 16 2011
=================================

Tropical Storm "SENDONG" maintained its strength and is now in the vicinity of Malaybalay, Bukidnon

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Sendong located at 8.3°N 124.6°E or 50 km west northwest of Malaybalay Bukidnon has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Mindanao region
==============
1.Misamis Oriental
2.Misamis Occidental
3.Camaguin Island
4.Bukidnon
5.Lanao del Norte
6.Lanao del Sur
7.Zamboanga Provinces

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon region
============
1.Palawan

Visayas region
=============
1.Bohol
2.Siquijor
3.Southern Cebu
4.Negros Oriental
5.Southern Negros Occidental

Mindanao region
==============
1.Surigao Del Norte
2.Agusan del Norte
3.Agusan del Sur
4.Davao del Norte
5.Compostela Valley
6.North Cotabato
7.Maguindanao

Additional Information
========================

All signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

Mining operators and small scale miners are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides and take necessary precautionary measures.

Fishing boats and other small sea crafts are advised not to venture out into the sea.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow and the hourly updates.
Boy Asia is in the midst of a Deep Freeze.



Quoting StormTracker2K:
Boy Asia is in the midst of a Deep Freeze.





those numbers are celsius, but still cold
Quoting Cat5Hurricane:

Wow. Posting all these cool, colorful, pretty maps around the world and one doesn't even possess the intelligence to distinguish a celsius temperature reading from a fahrenheit temperature reading... There's a good one, folks.

Oops.

Hmmm. Would you not call -22.F (in Ulan Bator) or -13 (in Novosibirsk) or -1 (in Khatanga) a "deep freeze"?

Now, what were you saying about possessing intelligence?
Advertise on NYTimes.com

Report Global Warming & Climate Change (2011 Durban Conference)
Updated: Dec. 12, 2011

Global warming has become perhaps the most complicated issue facing world leaders. Warnings from the scientific community are becoming louder, as an increasing body of science points to rising dangers from the ongoing buildup of human-related greenhouse gases — produced mainly by the burning of fossil fuels and forests.

Global emissions of carbon dioxide jumped by the largest amount on record in 2010, upending the notion that the brief decline during the recession might persist through the recovery. Emissions rose 5.9 percent in 2010, according to an analysis by the Global Carbon Project, an international collaboration of scientists. The increase solidified a trend of ever-rising emissions that scientists fear will make it difficult, if not impossible, to forestall severe climate change in coming decades.

However, the technological, economic and political issues that have to be resolved before a concerted worldwide effort to reduce emissions can begin have gotten no simpler, particularly in the face of a global economic slowdown.

For almost two decades, the United Nations has sponsored global talks, known as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, an international treaty signed by 194 countries in 1992 to cooperatively discuss global climate change and its impact.

The conferences operate on the principle of consensus, meaning that any of the participating nations can hold up an agreement. In recent years, the meetings have often ended in disillusionment. The conflicts and controversies discussed are monotonously familiar: the differing obligations of industrialized and developing nations, the question of who will pay to help poor nations adapt, the urgency of protecting tropical forests and the need to rapidly develop and deploy clean energy technology.

The negotiating process itself has been under fire from some quarters, including the poorest nations who believe their needs are being neglected in the fight among the major economic powers. Criticism has also come from a relatively small but vocal band of climate-change skeptics, many of them sitting members of the United States Congress, who doubt the existence of human influence on the climate and ridicule international efforts to deal with it.

Quoting TomTaylor:
Maybe if you followed the rules (i.e., not cussing, continually discussing religion, or trying to recruit people to help you with your website) and you were a little less stubborn and ignorant (i.e., denying global warming with no evidence or claiming that everything in the bible is true and real) your posts wouldn't be hidden.

Sure, only if you will cease your belching about how AGW is fact and that all American's must accept it now or the sky will fall.

Sounds good.




390.31ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for November 2011


Global warming is mainly the result of CO2 levels rising in the Earth%u2019s atmosphere. Both atmospheric CO2 and climate change are accelerating. Climate scientists say we have years, not decades, to stabilize CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

To help the world succeed, CO2Now.org makes it easy to see the most current CO2 level and what it means. So, use this site and keep an eye on CO2. Invite others to do the same. Then we can do more to send CO2 in the right direction.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TROPICAL STORM WASHI (T1121)
3:00 AM JST December 17 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon in Mindanao Region

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Washi (1000 hPa) located at 8.5N 123.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 18 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 8.9N 118.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 8.7N 114.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 7.8N 109.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Who is cat5hurricane. I searched the blog database and came up with no record of this blogger.

Edit: Oh, found out from Neapolitan that he was a banned member from this website and comes back now.

At least it's not the Jason's. OMG!
Quoting Coldwellrnd:
Haha. I love stormtracker2k's emails from Neapolitan informing him to keep posting pro-AWG stuff so cat5hurricane gets infuriated.

I love it.


?? What are you talking about! No one has e-mailed me.
Quoting Nekeopbarren:
Troll Alert: mistymountainhop, Coldwellrnd, and StormTracker2K.

Report, Flag, and ignore.


im pretty sure StormTracker2K is NOT a troll. he is just a very active post..er
Quoting Nekeopbarren:
Troll Alert: mistymountainhop, Coldwellrnd, and StormTracker2K.

Report, Flag, and ignore.

StormTracker2K isn't a troll.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Boy Asia is in the midst of a Deep Freeze.





thats coming this way
Quoting Nekeopbarren:
Troll Alert: mistymountainhop, Coldwellrnd, and StormTracker2K.

Report, Flag, and ignore.


Nahh not stormtracker2k
Hey this is Jeff, aka Stormtracker2k, remember me?
Quoting Jeff9614:
Hey this is Jeff, aka Stormtracker2k, remember me?

Jeff!!!!

OMG. Long time man!! Long time. How you been? Can't wait for the season to kick off Christmas Day.

Dwight Howard is staying in Orlando baby!!

Yeah!! So, are we looking at a potential weak hurricane or strong TS to impact Central Florida in the coming weeks.

As BaltimoreBrian says a Halloween Howler, I think this will be a Christmas Cyclone!!!
S.W.Caribbean disturbance is looking better. If this trend continues, maybe an invest?
Quoting JasonCoooolMan2011:

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!

I know! That's my favorite one. Don't be a stranger. We're trackign some activity in the CATL. Might become somethign and steering promises a good soak for Florida around Christmas time.
Quoting Patrap:
SOHO Movie of Comet Lovejoy


That is awesome! Think your Saints can beat the Packers?
Quoting Jeff9614:
Hey this is Jeff, aka Stormtracker2k, remember me?


i remember you clearly from 2010 when i DIDNT have an account. lol
i want a new blog to read lol
Quoting StormTracker2K:


?? What are you talking about! No one has e-mailed me.


I have seen Cat5hurricane make these claims before and they were always unfounded. ... Some things never change. Cat5hurricane is Cat5hurricane, by any other name.
Quoting SPLbeater:


i remember you clearly from 2010 when i DIDNT have an account. lol


Ah, the good old days, before BlogMeltdown 3.07. ;)
Boy the kids are out of school I see. Funny how some think your a particular person and it's not true. Oh well flag and ignore.
It was all a dream? I thought all the trolls were gone. Guess not.
Quoting caneswatch:
It was all a dream? I thought all the trolls were gone. Guess not.

Guess not is right. We have cat5hurricane, JFV, Jeff, Jason, the whole kitten kabootle.
What's going on here?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What's going on here?

Trolls...
Interesting feature here north of Panama.

Quoting Ameister12:

Trolls...

Ah..but wait..

I thought trolls went away for the winter?

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Interesting feature here north of Panama.


It is pretty interesting, but it's unlikely that much will come from it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ah..but wait..

I thought trolls went away for the winter?


Obviously not. I blame Global Warming!
Quoting Ameister12:

It is pretty interesting, but it's unlikely that much will come from it.


This area has presisted since last weekend. Well see. Another invest?
Oh, NO!!! NOT TROLLS!! ANYTHING BUT THAT!!! NOOOOOOOO!!!!! IT'S THE END OF WEATHERUNDERGROUND AS WE KNOW IT!!!!!!

JUST KIDDING!!! Weatherunderground is NEVER going to end. As long as Dr. Masters remains blogging here, everything is fine.

Now, what are we going to do about this troll problem?
203000Z TS Washi

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 990.8mb/ 61.0kt

Raw T# 3.6
Adj T# 3.6
Final T# 3.6

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Quoting DeepSouthUS:
Oh, NO!!! NOT TROLLS!! ANYTHING BUT THAT!!! NOOOOOOOO!!!!! IT'S THE END OF WEATHERUNDERGROUND AS WE KNOW IT!!!!!!

JUST KIDDING!!! Weatherunderground is NEVER going to end. As long as Dr. Masters remains blogging here, everything is fine.

Now, what are we going to do about this troll problem?


Report and Ignore, folks. Report and Ignore!
TCR for Irene is now out!!!!

Link
Ta-Da!

Hurricane Irene's Tropical Cyclone Report is out!

Link
In case anybody's wondering what my new blog was going to cover:

453. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ah..but wait..

I thought trolls went away for the winter?



The persistent spin around Panama keeps trying and trying...

"Since the strongest winds were over water to the east of the path of the center, New York
City escaped severe damage. Nonetheless, a storm surge of 3-6 ft caused hundreds of millions of
dollars in property damage in New York City and Long Island."


"In the United States, the Insurances Services Office reported that the hurricane caused an
estimated $3.5 billion in losses. Doubling this figure in an attempt to account for uninsured
losses results in an estimated U. S. damage total of $ 7 billion. There is no figure available from
the National Flood Insurance Program yet, which will need to be added to this preliminary
estimate. The Government of the Bahamas is currently assessing the damage caused by Irene. A
detailed summary of the damage can be found in the post-storm reports of local National
Weather Service offices in affected areas.
"
From Irene's TCR.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Report and Ignore, folks. Report and Ignore!


I know. I just flagged coldwellrnd's post because he was enjoying someone else's anger over something. I'm not a troll. I'm just a weatherunderground user who (usually) posts only once or twice every year, if anything.
Quoting Patrap:

Comet Lovejoy survives its trek around SOL.


So now that it has survived the SOL is it still SOL?
Quoting muddertracker:


That is awesome! Think your Saints can beat the Packers?


Only lost on the Final Play of the Thurs Nite Season Opener back on Sept 8th in Lambeau,,and we may see each other again up dere.

Philippine Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
TROPICAL STORM SENDONG (WASHI)
5:00 AM PhST December 17 2011
=================================

Tropical Storm "SENDONG" has maintained its course as it moves towards Sulu sea

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Sendong located at 8.4°N 124.4°E or 20 km west northwest of Cagayan de Oro City has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Mindanao region
==============
1.Misamis Occidental
2.Lanao del Norte
3.Lanao del Sur
4.Zamboanga Provinces

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon region
============
1.Palawan

Visayas region
=============
1.Bohol
2.Siquijor
3.Southern Cebu
4.Negros Oriental
5.Southern Negros Occidental

Mindanao region
==============
1.Camiguin Island
2.Misamis Oriental
3.Bukidnon
4.North Cotabato
5.Maguindanao

Additional Information
========================

All signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

Mining operators and small scale miners are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides and take necessary precautionary measures.

Fishing boats and other small sea crafts are advised not to venture out into the sea.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today and the hourly updates.
Quoting mistymountainhop:

I know! That's my favorite one. Don't be a stranger. We're trackign some activity in the CATL. Might become somethign and steering promises a good soak for Florida around Christmas time.


Maybe a soaker Wednesday-Friday. But it appears both Christmas Eve/Christmas Day should be delightful weatherwise here in Central Florida.

That same system might give the Northeast a white Christmas!
Quoting Patrap:


Only lost on the Final Play of the Thurs Nite Season Opener back on Sept 8th in Lambeau,,and we may see each other again up dere.



Honestly the Packers undefeated days are numbered. I really don't think the Packers can beat the Saints right now. It always seems the Saints peak toward the end of the season and to me the Saints are playing at a champoinship level right now.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Honestly the Packers undefeated days are numbered. I really don't think the Packers can beat the Saints right now. It always seems the Saints peak toward the end of the season and to me the Saints are playing at a champoinship level right now.


Just my opinion but alot will depend on whether or not the Packers run the table during the regular season. If they're 16-0, they'll be under a ton of pressure. Also depends on the playoff draw. There are 4 other teams that will have something to say about it. Many a mighty have fallen.
Quoting StAugustineFL:


Just my opinion but alot will depend on whether or not the Packers run the table during the regular season. If they're 16-0, they'll be under a ton of pressure. Also depends on the playoff draw. There are 4 other teams that will have something to say about it. Many a mighty have fallen.


I agree they may finish the season undefeated but then watch them lose in the second round of the playoffs.
Errm, excuse me, but there's a NEW BLOG up.
I find interesting that in MD, based on the data, it seems that the farther inland you went the winds got stronger:
Gaithersburg (GTHNT) 28/0559 gusts: 63 KTS. (most inland)
Laurel (LRSHS) 28/0429 gusts: 50 KTS. (Where my Grandparents live, closest to me.)
Ocean City (KOXB) 28/0053 983.7 27/2053 Winds:33 KTS. Gusts: 47 KTS. (This is closer to Irene then any other of the places listed)
I find that interesting because usually the closer you are to the storm, the worse winds you get, and this was different. This is odd.