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Tropical Storm Lee moving ashore; Katia continues northwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:53 PM GMT on September 03, 2011

Tropical Storm Lee is marching steadily northwards towards landfall in Louisiana, and continues to slowly intensify. The storm's central pressure is now down to 993 mb, as measured by an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft at 7am CDT. However, the center of Lee is now very close to the coast, and the storm doesn't have much time to intensify further before the center moves over land. The main impact from the storm on the coast thus far has been heavy rains. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, 5.88" inches of rain had fallen from Lee as of 8 am CDT this morning. Top winds were 35 mph, gusting to 55 mph. Though Lee's top winds are rated as being 60 mph, it is difficult to find any land stations that have reported sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph or greater. One station that has is at the tip of the Mississippi River Delta, where Southwest Pass measured sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 7:03 am CDT. Upper-level winds out of the southwest are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over Lee, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the east side of the storm. Latest satelllite loops show Lee is becoming increasingly organized.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Lee from the New Orleans radar. Lee has dumped a large region of 4 - 8 inches so far (orange colors.)


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Thursday Sep 8, 2011. Lee is expected to bring a large swath of 4+ inches of rain all the way to New England. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Lee
Lee's large size, ill-formed circulation center, and the presence of dry air on its west side due to an upper-level trough of low pressure make Lee look a lot like a subtropical storm on satellite imagery, with a broad center and the majority of the heavy thunderstorms in a broad band well removed from the center. Subtropical storms can undergo only relatively modest rates of intensification, and Lee is unlikely to become a hurricane. Also tending to slow intensification will be the fact that much of its circulation is over land. Damages from Lee are likely to be less than $100 - $200 million, with the greatest threats being fresh water flooding from heavy rains. Given that much of the region Lee will traverse over the next few days is under moderate to severe drought, the storm's rains may cause more economic benefit than damage. Since Texas is on the dry side of the storm, that state will see very little rainfall from Lee, except very close to the border with Louisiana. The rains from Lee appear to have mostly ended across extreme southern Louisiana, so the feared 10 - 15 inches of rain does not look like it will materialize there. One possible concern for Lee's rains will be the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where recovery efforts from the devastating flooding due to Hurricane Irene may be hampered by the additional 2 - 4 inches that may fall from Lee's remnants by the middle of the week.Tornadoes from Lee are potential hazard today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the Northern Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. A tornado watch is posted for the region, but no tornadoes have been reported as of 8 am CDT.

Lee is the 12th named storm this year, and came eight days before the half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season. Climatologically, September 10 marks the half-way point. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 24 - 26 named storms, making it the 2nd busiest season on record, behind 2005. Lee's formation date of September 2 puts 2011 in 5th place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 12th storm. Only 2005, 1995, 1936, and 1933 had an earlier 12th storm.

Hurricane Katia
The latest set of model runs show very little change in the outlook for Hurricane Katia. Katia will continue its long trek across the Atlantic Ocean, and will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days. Katia is still struggling with dry air and wind shear that has risen to a high 20 - 25 knots. Latest satellite loops show a lopsided hurricane that is suffering from the impacts of dry air and wind shear on its southwest side.

The models now agree that the upper-level trough of low pressure bringing the wind shear to Katia will move away by Sunday, putting Katia in an environment with low to moderate wind shear. At the same time, ocean temperatures will warm to 29°C, a full 0.5°C over what Katia is experiencing today. These effects should allow Katia to intensify to a Category 2 hurricane by Monday. It is still unclear how much of a threat Katia may pose to the U.S., as this depends on the strength and timing of a trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast 5 - 7 days from now. Our models do not have enough skill to predict how the steering currents will behave that far into the future. As I mentioned in yesterday's post, part of the problem is due to the inability of the computer models to agree on what will happen to Tropical Storm Talas in the Western Pacific. Talas hit Japan early on Saturday as a strong tropical storm, and is racing northwestwards towards Alaska. Talas is expected to transition into a powerful extratropical storm in the waters south of Alaska early next week. This extratropical storm will create a ripple effect downstream in the jet stream, all the way to North America, affecting the trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast expected to potentially recurve Katia when it approaches the U.S. The computer models are not very good at handling these sorts of interactions, leading to more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the long-range outlook for Katia. It will probably be another two days before the models will converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. It's a good bet that locations on the U.S. coast south of North Carolina are in the clear, but residents from North Carolina to New England need to watch Katia. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 15% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 22% chance of hitting Canada, a 12% chance of hitting New England, and a 58% chance of never hitting land. One almost certain impact of Katia on the U.S. will be large waves. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas on Sunday night, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.


Figure 3. Satellite image of Tropical Storm Talas taken September 2, 2011, as the storm approached Japan. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters
So far 4
So far 4
We're in a Lee-lull at the moment but winds have been strong and gusty this morning with blowing rain at times. I had to don my gullashes and wander around the overhang!

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting HoustonTxGal:


Nope, he was out a little while ago. Tried to let him out and he walked away from the door and hauled butt into my office... weird!


It's all a plot, My hubby is gone, I am here with the kids and some of their friends, so it is gonna wait till it gets dark before storms roll in. That way the power can go off and freak out my 3 year old... That is just my luck! LOL
Best song about a hurricane, Rise Against- Help Is On The Way

Link

Here in Seabrook, we have lots of wind, lovely dark clouds blowing by, a bit of drizzle, but no rain yet. We DO have rainbows, though, and it's under 80 degrees -- we'll take it and keep hoping for rain!!!
Quoting LAnovice:

I am assuming that Lee is overland based on your post - can you give a citation/source please - just came back and checking in




yes my little annyouing one


Link
Quoting NavarreMark:


Had business at Navarre Beach & Pensacola Beach yesterday. Didn't even try to drive the road between em. Went the long way around.

wimp ;)
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


Nope, he was out a little while ago. Tried to let him out and he walked away from the door and hauled butt into my office... weird!


My pound pup does not care if it is raining, thundering normally. I have had to force him out all day today. They sense things we don't. I do believe that.
2008. jpsb
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Its almost there...Bet you could literally drive down to it now. Rain totals in SE Texas have surpassed 1", with some areas picking up 2".
I am in se Texas and no rain yet. Come on rain!
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Did Recon cancel tonight's flight?




looks like it they cant do any thing right now any way with it be so close too land
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Did Recon cancel tonight's flight?


Yes.
Quoting Tazmanian:




yes my little annyouing one


Link


Ok - that's helpful - not annoying...
2012. beell
The models are keeping with my consistent theme of keeping the surface circulation captured by and rotating around the periphery of the upper low/trough. It was always a possibility I guess. One that I thought was a low probability.

18Z GFS 200mb
Valid 18Z Sunday.
click

2013. franck
Quoting Tazmanian:




yes my little annyouing one


Link


Yuk, yuk..Tazmanian you da man...you killin' me.
Quoting LAnovice:


Ok - that's helpful - not annoying...




your welcome
The dry air surrounding Lee is the strongest dry air I have ever seen in September.
2016. SLU
958

WHXX01 KWBC 040036

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0036 UTC SUN SEP 4 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA (AL122011) 20110904 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110904 0000 110904 1200 110905 0000 110905 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 20.0N 57.0W 20.7N 58.8W 21.3N 60.5W 22.1N 62.2W

BAMD 20.0N 57.0W 21.4N 58.8W 22.8N 60.7W 24.2N 62.5W

BAMM 20.0N 57.0W 21.0N 58.6W 22.0N 60.1W 23.1N 61.6W

LBAR 20.0N 57.0W 21.3N 58.5W 22.6N 60.4W 23.9N 62.4W

SHIP 60KTS 62KTS 64KTS 66KTS

DSHP 60KTS 62KTS 64KTS 66KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110906 0000 110907 0000 110908 0000 110909 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.0N 63.4W 25.5N 65.3W 29.0N 66.9W 34.4N 66.2W

BAMD 25.6N 64.0W 28.1N 66.0W 30.2N 68.1W 34.1N 67.8W

BAMM 24.4N 62.8W 27.4N 64.6W 30.6N 67.1W 36.0N 67.4W

LBAR 25.2N 64.5W 28.7N 68.7W 33.2N 71.3W 40.5N 66.7W

SHIP 66KTS 71KTS 77KTS 74KTS

DSHP 66KTS 71KTS 77KTS 74KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 20.0N LONCUR = 57.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT

LATM12 = 19.2N LONM12 = 55.5W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 18.4N LONM24 = 53.9W

WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 65KT

CENPRS = 993MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 275NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 105NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 105NM



$$

NNNN




------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
You can see how the steering currents would favor a move more to the northwest!!

2019. P451
Quoting Tazmanian:




looks like it they cant do any thing right now any way with it be so close too land


Taz, interesting to see that LEE was indeed tagged as sub-tropical on the SSD page.

03/0615 UTC 28.4N 92.1W T2.5/2.5 LEE
03/1145 UTC 28.8N 91.6W ST3.0 LEE
03/1745 UTC 29.1N 92.1W ST3.0 LEE
03/2345 UTC 29.6N 92.4W OVERLAND LEE

I wonder what it will be if it re-emerges. (T)ropical or (S)ub(T)ropical.

Radar presentation would argue tropical due to it's increasing organization of the core.

Satellite imagery...still not so much.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Texas has got to ave one of the most diverse weather in the counrty.

It really does. We're jammed between the Rockies and the GOM, with tornado alley to the north and Mexican desert to the southwest. Terrain goes from mountain desert to flat desert to plains to deep pine forest to swamp to wet coastal plains to fertile valley to scrub escarpment. When we get enough rain, it's a nice place. When we don't, we get 2011... *g*

I think people forget Texas is the same size as France. There's an incredible range of terrain and weather from one end to the other. It's good that the eastern corner is getting wet from Lee, but I'd sure be happy if it came west to San Antonio. We've been left mostly high and dry while other storms systems have brought relief to other parts of the state.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Yup. Lee is trying to curl into an eye in its remaining bits of power.
Quoting P451:


Taz, interesting to see that LEE was indeed tagged as sub-tropical on the SSD page.

03/0615 UTC 28.4N 92.1W T2.5/2.5 LEE
03/1145 UTC 28.8N 91.6W ST3.0 LEE
03/1745 UTC 29.1N 92.1W ST3.0 LEE
03/2345 UTC 29.6N 92.4W OVERLAND LEE

I wonder what it will be if it re-emerges. (T)ropical or (S)ub(T)ropical.

Radar presentation would argue tropical due to it's increasing organization of the core.

Satellite imagery...still not so much.




yes it is its forcast too come back overe the open gulf?
Latest microwave of Katia.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
710 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

...CUMULATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS AS OF 7AM CDT THIS MORNING...
...UPDATED ASOS SITES TO INCLUDE 12 ADDITIONAL HOURS OF RAIN...

RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GIVEN IN INCHES. TOTALS BEGIN AT 7AM THURSDAY
MORNING AND END AT 7AM THIS MORNING UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
INCOMPLETE DATA IS NOTATED WITH AN (I) BEHIND THE OBSERVATION.

OFFICIAL NWS OBSERVATIONS
AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS/CO-OP SITES

PASCAGOULA 9.59 THROUGH 7PM
N.O. AUDUBON 9.58 THROUGH 7PM
N.O. CAROLLTON 8.82
GALLIANO 8.80
N.O. LAKEFRONT 7.87 THROUGH 7PM
SLIDELL CITY 7.77
N.O. ARMSTRONG 7.63 THROUGH 7PM
BOOTHVILLE 7.19 THROUGH 7PM
GULFPORT 6.78 THROUGH 7PM
BILOXI 6.78 THROUGH 7PM
3S TERRYTOWN 6.74
4SW DONALDSONVILLE 6.13
BATON ROUGE 5.95 THROUGH 7PM
B.R. SHERWOOD 5.85
SLIDELL AIRPORT 5.62 THROUGH 7PM
KILLIAN 5.50
GONZALES 5.47
BAYOU MANCHAC 5.30 (I)
DENHAM SPRINGS 4.90 (I)
BAYOU SORREL LOCK 4.76
B.R. CONCORD 4.08
MANDEVILLE 4.08
4SE PONCHATOULA 3.96
OCEAN SPRINGS 3.74
2S CONVENT 3.32
LIVINGSTON 3.25
2N PLAQUEMINE 3.03
ABITA RIVER 3.10
MCCOMB 2.15 THROUGH 7PM
SUN 2.11
GRAND ISLE 1.20 (I)

UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS - COCORAHS PUBLIC REPORTS
1.1 NW WAVELAND 9.06 THROUGH 8AM
1.9 E MARRERO 8.71 THROUGH 6AM
0.8 WNW MERAUX 7.61 THROUGH 8AM
0.9 NNW LABADIEVILLE 7.37
0.5 ENE GRAY 8.90 THROUGH 8AM
3.7 NNW HOUMA 6.86
8.9 NNW PASS CHRISTIAN 5.88
2.0 SSW TICKFAW 5.85 THROUGH 8AM
2.2 NE SLIDELL 5.72
0.8 E GONZALES 5.68
VILLAGE ST. GEORGE 5.35
3.5 E BATON ROUGE 5.32
LSU 5.20
3.7 N GONZALES 5.05
2 NE GULFPORT 4.95 THROUGH 6AM
0.8 SSE LONG BEACH 4.93
0.9 NNW DIAMONDHEAD 4.86
1.3 N LACOMBE 4.53
6.6 N KILN 4.49
0.5 SSE RESERVE 4.41
2.8 S INNISWOLD 4.11 THROUGH 8AM
0.4 NW GRAMERCY 4.22
5.9 SW JAYESS 3.90
1.9 NNE DENHAM SPRINGS 3.76
1.8 SE PASCAGOULA 3.50 THROUGH 11AM
2.2 SSW ABITA 3.41 THROUGH 8AM
3.6 ESE OCEAN SPRINGS 3.27 THROUGH 6AM
11.8 E PONCHATOULA 3.24 THROUGH 8AM
5.9 N CARRIERE 2.99 THROUGH 8AM
5.6 ENE PICAYUNE 2.76
6.4 ESE SAUCIER 2.46
10.2 NE MOSS POINT 2.32 THROUGH 8AM
4.9 N GAUTIER 1.83
WAKEFIELD 1.63 THROUGH 6AM
1.9 SSW GLOSTER 1.19 THROUGH 9AM
PORT VINCENT 0.96 (I)
6.4 ENE LIBERTY 0.75 THROUGH 6AM
Quoting summerland:

It really does. We're jammed between the Rockies and the GOM, with tornado alley to the north and Mexican desert to the southwest. Terrain goes from mountain desert to flat desert to plains to deep pine forest to swamp to wet coastal plains to fertile valley to scrub escarpment. When we get enough rain, it's a nice place. When we don't, we get 2011... *g*

I think people forget Texas is the same size as France. There's an incredible range of terrain and weather from one end to the other. It's good that the eastern corner is getting wet from Lee, but I'd sure be happy if it came west to San Antonio. We've been left mostly high and dry while other storms systems have brought relief to other parts of the state.
I would have guessed that Texas was at least twice the size of France.
Katia:

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/04/11 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Latest microwave of Katia.





looks like its froming its eye

Models
2029. Patrap
Here in League City:

Facing Galveston Bay



And then the sunset behind


Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Latest microwave of Katia.

Eye should pop up tonight or morning but def cat 1.
2033. Patrap
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Katia:

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/04/11 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
Soooo what does that mean?
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I would have guessed that Texas was at least twice the size of France.

Only in our dreams! *g*
when do you think we could see the M storm P451?
2037. P451
Quoting Matt1989:
The dry air surrounding Lee is the strongest dry air I have ever seen in September.


Texas is just crazy dry....

2038. beell
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I would have guessed that Texas was at least twice the size of France.


Spoken like a true Texan!
2039. franck
Quoting Patrap:


Pontchartrain getting a fillup huh.
2040. Patrap
2041. pcola57
Quoting summerland:

It really does. We're jammed between the Rockies and the GOM, with tornado alley to the north and Mexican desert to the southwest. Terrain goes from mountain desert to flat desert to plains to deep pine forest to swamp to wet coastal plains to fertile valley to scrub escarpment. When we get enough rain, it's a nice place. When we don't, we get 2011... *g*

I think people forget Texas is the same size as France. There's an incredible range of terrain and weather from one end to the other. It's good that the eastern corner is getting wet from Lee, but I'd sure be happy if it came west to San Antonio. We've been left mostly high and dry while other storms systems have brought relief to other parts of the state.


I lived in Victoria once...for me it was about the hottest place I had ever lived...plenty of rain though at that time...
2042. beell
Quoting P451:


Texas is just crazy dry....



And that is not likely to change much with respect to Lee.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Katia:

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/04/11 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
Cuts of outflow to the north and bingo.

Texas= 696200 km2

France=674834 km2
So, are you Louisiana residents okay? Are you hurt? I hope not.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Eye should pop up tonight or morning but def cat 1.


Agree. This microwave may tempt NHC to upgrade again to hurricane at 11 PM.
2047. P451
Quoting Tazmanian:
when do you think we could see the M storm P451?


Have no put any thought into it. Was so busy watching Lee and sometimes Katia.

Never revisited the idea of future storms past those few whacky GFS runs that had several waves developing into storms on Katia's heels.

I would suggest the wave that is off of Africa (24) is one of those waves.

It doesn't seem to be in a hurry to develop however does it?

The other wave further along (22) seems to be in too hostile an environment.

Quoting beell:


Spoken like a true Texan!
I just checked.
Texas is 30% bigger than France!
Take that France!
And that's just one of our states.
.
.
The full size of France includes it's territories and Islands that it owns. It would be nice if Texas had islands of it's own. They could ship Perry to one.
2049. aimetti
Darn i was wrong ;(
Quoting P451:


Texas is just crazy dry....



True. Plus, wind from Lee will head into Texas, putting fire weather and Texas' chances of fire in tip-top shape.
looks like Katia is moveing a little W
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Latest microwave of Katia.

Finally got an eyewall to close off. If you look on that same microwave image though, a pocket of dry air lies to the northwest of the circulation (clearly visible on satellite imagery as well). Until it mixes that out, an eye probably won't be visible on satellite.
2053. franck
Quoting HoustonTxGal:

Texas= 696200 km2

France=674834 km2


Unfortunately, Texas along same latitude as Libya; France = Nova Scotia.
2054. P451
Quoting brazocane:
Here in League City:

Facing Galveston Bay



And then the sunset behind




Fantastic pics.


Well, g'night all.

See what Lee brings in the morning.
Jim cantore is in Bay St. Louis Mississippi now, so although the center is of the Coast of LA you can get an idea of where the high winds are.
Quoting P451:


Have no put any thought into it. Was so busy watching Lee and sometimes Katia.

Never revisited the idea of future storms past those few whacky GFS runs that had several waves developing into storms on Katia's heels.

I would suggest the wave that is off of Africa (24) is one of those waves.

It doesn't seem to be in a hurry to develop however does it?

The other wave further along (22) seems to be in too hostile an environment.




ok
Quoting beell:


Spoken like a true Texan!
Texas is only 27% larger than France.
2058. scott39
Quoting beell:
The models are keeping with my consistent theme of keeping the surface circulation captured by and rotating around the periphery of the upper low/trough. It was always a possibility I guess. One that I thought was a low probability.

18Z GFS 200mb
Valid 18Z Sunday.
click

Captured and then track where? TIA
Quoting franck:


Unfortunately, Texas along same latitude as Libya; France = Nova Scotia.
France itself is not that large.
2060. franck
Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like Katia is moveing a little W

Correctamente.

Katia looks better,i would have 75 back at 11 PM
Quoting washingtonian115:
Soooo what does that mean?


Well, here's better info on Katia. It will hit around the N. Carolina/Virginia border, that's what the graphs from NHC, TWC, and Wunderground say.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I just checked.
Texas is 30% bigger than France!
Take that France!
And that's just one of our states.
.
.
The full size of France includes it's territories and Islands that it owns. It would be nice if Texas had islands of it's own. They could ship Perry to one.


Well, we do have Galveston Island and Padre Island , Dagger Island, Pelican Island to name a few
Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like Katia is moveing a little W


Taz, be careful how you say that , you might get labelled a westcaster J/K , how r ya Taz?
2065. ncstorm
12Z EURO ENSEMBLES Katia

2066. Remek
Quoting Matt1989:

Models


Now, Lee, you follow that GFDL track, y'hear? Good boy!
2067. beell
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I just checked.
Texas is 30% bigger than France!
Take that France!
And that's just one of our states.
.
.
The full size of France includes it's territories and Islands that it owns. It would be nice if Texas had islands of it's own. They could ship Perry to one.


30% is twice as big, isn't it?

To prove that his land is bigger than a Tennessee farm, the Texas rancher bragged, "My ranch is so big that I can get in my pickup and drive all day and all night, and still not leave it!" The Tennessee farmer responded, "I know what you mean. I have an old broke-down truck, too."
2068. will40
Quoting 5Rockets:


Well, here's better info on Katia. It will hit around the N. Carolina/Virginia border, that's what the graphs from NHC, TWC, and Wunderground say.


there is no graphic from NHC showing it hitting anywhere
2069. Patrap
For some reason, I've always assumed Katia and Lee were Irene's top backup.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Taz, be careful how you say that , you might get labelled a westcaster J/K , how r ya Taz?




doing well
Here we go. Shots fired. Need I say this is supposed to be a weather blog.
Quoting beell:


30% is twice as big, isn't it?

To prove that his land is bigger than a Tennessee farm, the Texas rancher bragged, "My ranch is so big that I can get in my pickup and drive all day and all night, and still not leave it!" The Tennessee farmer responded, "I know what you mean. I have an old broke-down truck, too."


The drive from the east side of Texas to the west side of Texas is about the same distance as driving from Dallas to Chicago.
Looks like Mississippi threw up a shield. All the bands parting and going around it.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Eye should pop up tonight or morning but def cat 1.

also moving west, west north west, all day, why they say NW?
Went to the store, saw people buying water. I did too, and a case of guinness. For, you know, happy fun rainy time.
2081. will40
Quoting 5Rockets:


Well, I look at their charts, then I predict where.
But I checked yesterday, and there was a chart I just happened to find on NHC.



lmao so it is a prediction from you
5Rockets=Troll??
Couple more Lee Sunset pics:



Quoting HuracanTaino:

also moving west, west north west, all day, why they say NW?


because it's actually been moving Northwest. It's just hard to tell on satellite... there's been a lot of wobbles, but when all averaged out the motion is 305 degrees/NW.
New Blog!!
"mamabeth: Looks like Mississippi threw up a shield. All the bands parting and going around it."

Well, that pinpoints Cantore.
Hi Dewey and 5rockets had this same conversation this morning. Nothing significant has changed. Dewey is/was correct!
These models all showing lee heading NE and being absorbed by the Atlantic storm
But all models also are showing something else starting in the S GOMEX in 3 or 4 days days

Quoting mamabeth:
Looks like Mississippi threw up a shield. All the bands parting and going around it.

Must be just your area. See my post 2024 for numbers.
Quoting will40:



lmao so it is a prediction from you


Yes. And a good one, too. I mean, not everyone's predictions are perfecto. I'm saying mine's pretty good estimation.
2093. A4Guy
NEW BLOG from ANGELA
Quoting 5Rockets:


Yes. And a good one, too. I mean, not everyone's predictions are perfecto. I'm saying mine's pretty good estimation.


Does anybody object to that?
In East Texas, it has been RAINING steadily for about 4 hours now. Very gentle, soaking rain. This is the most rain we have had in months! Who else in Texas is getting this? This beautiful rain is due to Lee. It looks like it will last another 4 hours or more, but the official forecast says only 30% rain.
Quoting PcolaDan:

Must be just your area. See my post 2024 for numbers.



May very well be. Just looked like it on radar. Know its gonna change.
2097. JLPR2
Seems like the only way for Katia to bring at least a band of rain to my area is to move due west for at least a day and that is highly unlikely.

I bed adieu to Katia and wish the Bahamas, Bermuda, East Coast and Canada good luck.

Quoting twincomanche:
5Rockets=Troll??


Nope. Not a troll.
little too no dust in the way




wind shear seems low for PG23L and PG24L

2101. franck
Quoting HoustonTxGal:



Heck, many of us down in here in Texas have our CHL..Perry is just more in the spotlight about it. Heck, I have a CHL :o)


Oh, you're not telling me..I'm from Alabama. Sold my guns years ago. You know the saying, live by the sword....
If anyone objects to what I'm saying, fire away at me.
Katia is out there and who knows she could hit Florida just as easy as New England. U just dont know about these storms.
Well, who has the bravery to shoot out trash at me?
Quoting luvhurricanes:
Katia is out there and who knows she could hit Florida just as easy as New England. U just dont know about these storms.


I'm sorry, then you're telling so many other sources that they don't know either. Because that's where my estimations come from.
So if you don't believe me, then say it. And say whatever you've been struggling to scream at me about.
Haven't much speculated aloud about Lee after it looked like most of TX wasn't getting much from him other than a reprieve for some of the heat. He's begun to meander with a slight eastward intent for the last 4 hrs. I'm thinking it's been about as far west as it ever will be... Ironic, it may hit both the family farm in Southern MS & my other farm in WNC, while I watch from FL. Slow moving soaking storm. The remnants may merge with Katia at some point like over the NE. Could be really bad for the NE, but that's 6 days out..so little early to say.
Permanently signing out. Last chance!
About to sign out. You'll see how Katia goes where I said it would and you'll know I was always right.
Quoting 5Rockets:
About to sign out. You'll see how Katia goes where I said it would and you'll know I was always right.


im confused... if you make a prediction that doesnt mean that people are going to yell and scream at you about it... they may not even say anything about it
2111. franck
Models diverging. NGFDL and GFDL have Lee headin' to Texas!!
2112. rv1pop
Quoting P451:


Of course not. It's what makes me (e)special(ly stupid)....
Hey, please, watch what you say about someone I honor and respect. Thank You
YAWN on the east coast. Diff an interesting day!
Quoting pcola57:


Do you know what is the record low number for them Taz?
I sure don't know.


You should try living in the UK :-) We have such classic sayings as:
'If you don't like the weather, wait a minute' (Scotland) and:
'If you can't see the hills, it's raining. If you can see the hills, it's going to rain' (Yorkshire).

Keep yer heads down that side of the pond and stay safe...

Back to lurking!
Quoting Muffelchen:


You should try living in the UK :-) We have such classic sayings as:
'If you don't like the weather, wait a minute' (Scotland) and:
'If you can't see the hills, it's raining. If you can see the hills, it's going to rain' (Yorkshire).

Keep yer heads down that side of the pond and stay safe...

Back to lurking!


In the West of Cumbria, Rain before Seven... Fine before Eleven...
Cyclone OZ.....

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-severe-weather -webcam#utm_campaign=synclickback&source=http://ww w.crazymother.tv/&medium=4301091

http://tampaspinsweather.chatango.com/

none of the ole' sayings hold true here any more...a sad day for my grandfather... but of course this has nothing to do with climate change. ;)
Quoting 5Rockets:
About to sign out. You'll see how Katia goes where I said it would and you'll know I was always right.



sorry but your not all ways right
2119. keisa90
Winds have increased quite a bit here in Katy, Texas, just SW of Houston. I don't think Lee is finished yet.

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